WorldWideScience

Sample records for reservoir management decisions

  1. Decision Support System for Reservoir Management and Operation in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navar, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Africa is currently experiencing a surge in dam construction for flood control, water supply and hydropower production, but ineffective reservoir management has caused problems in the region, such as water shortages, flooding and loss of potential hydropower generation. Our research aims to remedy ineffective reservoir management by developing a novel Decision Support System(DSS) to equip water managers with a technical planning tool based on the state of the art in hydrological sciences. The DSS incorporates a climate forecast model, a hydraulic model of the watershed, and an optimization model to effectively plan for the operation of a system of cascade large-scale reservoirs for hydropower production, while treating water supply and flood control as constraints. Our team will use the newly constructed hydropower plants in the Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia as the test case. Using the basic HIDROTERM software developed in Brazil, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) utilizes a combination of linear programing (LP) and non-linear programming (NLP) in conjunction with real time hydrologic and energy demand data to optimize the monthly and daily operations of the reservoir system. We compare the DSS model results with the current reservoir operating policy used by the water managers of that region. We also hope the DSS will eliminate the current dangers associated with the mismanagement of large scale water resources projects in Africa.

  2. Reservoir management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satter, A.; Varnon, J.E.; Hoang, M.T.

    1992-01-01

    A reservoir's life begins with exploration leading to discovery followed by delineation of the reservoir, development of the field, production by primary, secondary and tertiary means, and finally to abandonment. Sound reservoir management is the key to maximizing economic operation of the reservoir throughout its entire life. Technological advances and rapidly increasing computer power are providing tools to better manage reservoirs and are increasing the gap between good and neural reservoir management. The modern reservoir management process involves goal setting, planning, implementing, monitoring, evaluating, and revising plans. Setting a reservoir management strategy requires knowledge of the reservoir, availability of technology, and knowledge of the business, political, and environmental climate. Formulating a comprehensive management plan involves depletion and development strategies, data acquisition and analyses, geological and numerical model studies, production and reserves forecasts, facilities requirements, economic optimization, and management approval. This paper provides management, engineers, geologists, geophysicists, and field operations staff with a better understanding of the practical approach to reservoir management using a multidisciplinary, integrated team approach

  3. Reservoir management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satter, A.; Varnon, J.E.; Hoang, M.T.

    1992-01-01

    A reservoir's life begins with exploration leading to discovery followed by delineation of the reservoir, development of the field, production by primary, secondary and tertiary means, and finally to abandonment. Sound reservoir management is the key to maximizing economic operation of the reservoir throughout its entire life. Technological advances and rapidly increasing computer power are providing tools to better manage reservoirs and are increasing the gap between good and neutral reservoir management. The modern reservoir management process involves goal setting, planning, implementing, monitoring, evaluating, and revising plans. Setting a reservoir management strategy requires knowledge of the reservoir, availability of technology, and knowledge of the business, political, and environmental climate. Formulating a comprehensive management plan involves depletion and development strategies, data acquisition and analyses, geological and numerical model studies, production and reserves forecasts, facilities requirements, economic optimization, and management approval. This paper provides management, engineers geologists, geophysicists, and field operations staff with a better understanding of the practical approach to reservoir management using a multidisciplinary, integrated team approach

  4. Eutrophication of lakes and reservoirs: A framework for making management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rast, W.; Holland, M.

    1988-01-01

    The development of management strategies for the protection of environmental quality usually involves consideration both of technical and nontechnical issues. A logical, step-by-step framework for development of such strategies is provided. Its application to the control of cultured eutrophication of lakes and reservoirs illustrates its potential usefulness. From the perspective of the policymaker, the main consideration is that the eutrophication-related water quality of a lake or reservoir can be managed for given water uses. The approach presented here allows the rational assessment of relevant water-quality parameters and establishment of water-quality goals, consideration of social and other nontechnical issues, the possibilities of public involvement in the decision-making process, and a reasonable economic analysis within a management framework.

  5. Reservoir Engineering Management Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howard, J.H.; Schwarz, W.J.

    1977-12-14

    The Reservoir Engineering Management Program being conducted at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory includes two major tasks: 1) the continuation of support to geothermal reservoir engineering related work, started under the NSF-RANN program and transferred to ERDA at the time of its formation; 2) the development and subsequent implementation of a broad plan for support of research in topics related to the exploitation of geothermal reservoirs. This plan is now known as the GREMP plan. Both the NSF-RANN legacies and GREMP are in direct support of the DOE/DGE mission in general and the goals of the Resource and Technology/Resource Exploitation and Assessment Branch in particular. These goals are to determine the magnitude and distribution of geothermal resources and reduce risk in their exploitation through improved understanding of generically different reservoir types. These goals are to be accomplished by: 1) the creation of a large data base about geothermal reservoirs, 2) improved tools and methods for gathering data on geothermal reservoirs, and 3) modeling of reservoirs and utilization options. The NSF legacies are more research and training oriented, and the GREMP is geared primarily to the practical development of the geothermal reservoirs. 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  6. Sediment management for reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, A.

    2005-01-01

    All natural lakes and reservoirs whether on rivers, tributaries or off channel storages are doomed to be sited up. Pakistan has two major reservoirs of Tarbela and Managla and shallow lake created by Chashma Barrage. Tarbela and Mangla Lakes are losing their capacities ever since first impounding, Tarbela since 1974 and Mangla since 1967. Tarbela Reservoir receives average annual flow of about 62 MAF and sediment deposits of 0.11 MAF whereas Mangla gets about 23 MAF of average annual flows and is losing its storage at the rate of average 34,000 MAF annually. The loss of storage is a great concern and studies for Tarbela were carried out by TAMS and Wallingford to sustain its capacity whereas no study has been done for Mangla as yet except as part of study for Raised Mangla, which is only desk work. Delta of Tarbala reservoir has advanced to about 6.59 miles (Pivot Point) from power intakes. In case of liquefaction of delta by tremor as low as 0.12g peak ground acceleration the power tunnels I, 2 and 3 will be blocked. Minimum Pool of reservoir is being raised so as to check the advance of delta. Mangla delta will follow the trend of Tarbela. Tarbela has vast amount of data as reservoir is surveyed every year, whereas Mangla Reservoir survey was done at five-year interval, which has now been proposed .to be reduced to three-year interval. In addition suspended sediment sampling of inflow streams is being done by Surface Water Hydrology Project of WAPDA as also some bed load sampling. The problem of Chasma Reservoir has also been highlighted, as it is being indiscriminately being filled up and drawdown several times a year without regard to its reaction to this treatment. The Sediment Management of these reservoirs is essential and the paper discusses pros and cons of various alternatives. (author)

  7. A rationale for reservoir management economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hickman, T.S.

    1995-01-01

    Significant economic benefits can be derived from the application f reservoir management. The key elements in economical reservoir management are the efficient use of available resources and optimization of reservoir exploitation through a multidisciplined approach. This paper describes various aspects of and approaches to reservoir management and provides case histories that support the findings

  8. Metal and physico-chemical variations at a hydroelectric reservoir analyzed by Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks: environmental management and policy/decision-making tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalcante, Y L; Hauser-Davis, R A; Saraiva, A C F; Brandão, I L S; Oliveira, T F; Silveira, A M

    2013-01-01

    This paper compared and evaluated seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters and metals at a hydroelectric power station reservoir by applying Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) statistical techniques. A Factor Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables: the first factor was composed of elements Ca, K, Mg and Na, and the second by Chemical Oxygen Demand. The ANN showed 100% correct classifications in training and validation samples. Physico-chemical analyses showed that water pH values were not statistically different between the dry and rainy seasons, while temperature, conductivity, alkalinity, ammonia and DO were higher in the dry period. TSS, hardness and COD, on the other hand, were higher during the rainy season. The statistical analyses showed that Ca, K, Mg and Na are directly connected to the Chemical Oxygen Demand, which indicates a possibility of their input into the reservoir system by domestic sewage and agricultural run-offs. These statistical applications, thus, are also relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, to identify which factors should be further studied and/or modified to recover degraded or contaminated water bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. APPLICATION OF INTEGRATED RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jack Bergeron; Tom Blasingame; Louis Doublet; Mohan Kelkar; George Freeman; Jeff Callard; David Moore; David Davies; Richard Vessell; Brian Pregger; Bill Dixon; Bryce Bezant

    2000-03-01

    , and to monitor pressure and preferential fluid movement in the reservoir is demonstrated. These techniques are: long-term production and injection data analysis, pressure transient analysis, and advanced open and cased hole well log analysis. The major contribution of this project is to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

  10. Managing a reservoir-based hydro-energy plant: building understanding in the buy and sell decisions in a changing environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackere, A. van; Ruud, Morten; Davidsen, Paal

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a modelling process at a Norwegian chemical producer, who owns 20% of a reservoir based hydro-energy plant. While the initial objective was to increase the profitability of the energy plant (in particular by an improved understanding of buying and selling decisions and a reconciliation of the managerial and engineering points of view in the context of a liberalised energy market) the process resulted in the company's decision to refocus on its core-business. The process illustrates how a modelling process can lead to a fundamental re framing of the issue, resulting in major change for the company

  11. The role of reservoir characterization in the reservoir management process (as reflected in the Department of Energy`s reservoir management demonstration program)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fowler, M.L. [BDM-Petroleum Technologies, Bartlesville, OK (United States); Young, M.A.; Madden, M.P. [BDM-Oklahoma, Bartlesville, OK (United States)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    Optimum reservoir recovery and profitability result from guidance of reservoir practices provided by an effective reservoir management plan. Success in developing the best, most appropriate reservoir management plan requires knowledge and consideration of (1) the reservoir system including rocks, and rock-fluid interactions (i.e., a characterization of the reservoir) as well as wellbores and associated equipment and surface facilities; (2) the technologies available to describe, analyze, and exploit the reservoir; and (3) the business environment under which the plan will be developed and implemented. Reservoir characterization is the essential to gain needed knowledge of the reservoir for reservoir management plan building. Reservoir characterization efforts can be appropriately scaled by considering the reservoir management context under which the plan is being built. Reservoir management plans de-optimize with time as technology and the business environment change or as new reservoir information indicates the reservoir characterization models on which the current plan is based are inadequate. BDM-Oklahoma and the Department of Energy have implemented a program of reservoir management demonstrations to encourage operators with limited resources and experience to learn, implement, and disperse sound reservoir management techniques through cooperative research and development projects whose objectives are to develop reservoir management plans. In each of the three projects currently underway, careful attention to reservoir management context assures a reservoir characterization approach that is sufficient, but not in excess of what is necessary, to devise and implement an effective reservoir management plan.

  12. Frameworks for amending reservoir water management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

    2013-01-01

    Managing water storage and withdrawals in many reservoirs requires establishing seasonal targets for water levels (i.e., rule curves) that are influenced by regional precipitation and diverse water demands. Rule curves are established as an attempt to balance various water needs such as flood control, irrigation, and environmental benefits such as fish and wildlife management. The processes and challenges associated with amending rule curves to balance multiuse needs are complicated and mostly unfamiliar to non-US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) natural resource managers and to the public. To inform natural resource managers and the public we describe the policies and process involved in amending rule curves in USACE reservoirs, including 3 frameworks: a general investigation, a continuing authority program, and the water control plan. Our review suggests that water management in reservoirs can be amended, but generally a multitude of constraints and competing demands must be addressed before such a change can be realized.

  13. Reservoir management under geological uncertainty using fast model update

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanea, R.; Evensen, G.; Hustoft, L.; Ek, T.; Chitu, A.; Wilschut, F.

    2015-01-01

    Statoil is implementing "Fast Model Update (FMU)," an integrated and automated workflow for reservoir modeling and characterization. FMU connects all steps and disciplines from seismic depth conversion to prediction and reservoir management taking into account relevant reservoir uncertainty. FMU

  14. New technologies for reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mair, Dylan; Benthien, Nancy; Evans, Scot [Landmark Graphics Corporation, Houston, TX (United States); Lukats, Kandy

    2004-07-01

    The E and P industry has high levels of uncertainty and risk, which oil companies attempt to quantify before embarking on each individual E and P project. However, the actual return on investment often falls well short of the hurdle rate. This discrepancy has been attributed to systemic limitations in decision analysis processes and workflow, which result in repeated underestimation of risk and overestimation of the predicted production of the project. Well designed decision analysis processes in association with clearly defined, multi-scenario analyses of significant technical uncertainties are required. However, simulation of these uncertainties is not realistic given the performance and infrastructure limitations of conventional technology (Begg et al., 2001; Floris and Peersmann, 2000). During the past five years, more than 20 companies have attempted to map the requirements of new technology that is needed to improve uncertainty assessment and decision analysis. Pain points associated with common processes in upstream E and P were studied leading to identify the computing technology issues currently faced by oil companies. A strategy was then formalized to create a new generation of technology that eases the pain points while providing for improved understanding of risk. This paper details a new asset-team focused technology system that has been built to improve the value of E and P decision analysis processes. (author)

  15. An intelligent agent for optimal river-reservoir system management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieker, Jeffrey D.; Labadie, John W.

    2012-09-01

    A generalized software package is presented for developing an intelligent agent for stochastic optimization of complex river-reservoir system management and operations. Reinforcement learning is an approach to artificial intelligence for developing a decision-making agent that learns the best operational policies without the need for explicit probabilistic models of hydrologic system behavior. The agent learns these strategies experientially in a Markov decision process through observational interaction with the environment and simulation of the river-reservoir system using well-calibrated models. The graphical user interface for the reinforcement learning process controller includes numerous learning method options and dynamic displays for visualizing the adaptive behavior of the agent. As a case study, the generalized reinforcement learning software is applied to developing an intelligent agent for optimal management of water stored in the Truckee river-reservoir system of California and Nevada for the purpose of streamflow augmentation for water quality enhancement. The intelligent agent successfully learns long-term reservoir operational policies that specifically focus on mitigating water temperature extremes during persistent drought periods that jeopardize the survival of threatened and endangered fish species.

  16. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  17. A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcoforado de Moraes, Márcia; Silva, Gerald; Siegmund-Schultze, Marianna

    2017-04-01

    The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm. A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose and present the first features of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform should include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In

  18. Managing a hydro-energy reservoir: A policy approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ackere, Ann [HEC Lausanne, Internef, Universite de Lausanne, CH 1015 Lausanne, Dorigny (Switzerland); Ochoa, Patricia [London Business School, Regent' s Park, London NW1 4SA (United Kingdom)

    2010-11-15

    Liberalisation and privatisation have increased the need to gain more understanding into the management of hydro storage (HS) plants. We analyse what types of reservoir management policies enable an owner or a public authority to achieve their respective objectives. By 'policy' we understand simple, easily applicable decision rules, which enable a decision maker to decide when and how much to produce based on currently available information. We use a stylised deterministic simulation model of a hydro-power producer (HP) who behaves strategically. We study a non-liberalised market, where the authorities aim to minimise the total electricity cost for customers and a liberalised market where the HP attempts to maximise his contribution. This enables us to evaluate the impact of the liberalisation of HS production decisions on production volumes and electricity prices. We conclude that imposing rigid policies with the aim of limiting the potential for strategic behaviour can create incentives to produce only at very high prices throughout the year. This can lead to very high total costs, especially when the producer has most flexibility (large reservoirs combined with large turbine capacity). More surprisingly, we observe lower total production in a non-liberalised market. (author)

  19. Managing a hydro-energy reservoir: A policy approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ackere, Ann van, E-mail: Ann.vanAckere@unil.c [HEC Lausanne, Internef, Universite de Lausanne, CH 1015 Lausanne, Dorigny (Switzerland); Ochoa, Patricia, E-mail: Patricia.Ochoa@edfenergy.co [London Business School, Regent' s Park, London NW1 4SA (United Kingdom)

    2010-11-15

    Liberalisation and privatisation have increased the need to gain more understanding into the management of hydro storage (HS) plants. We analyse what types of reservoir management policies enable an owner or a public authority to achieve their respective objectives. By 'policy' we understand simple, easily applicable decision rules, which enable a decision maker to decide when and how much to produce based on currently available information. We use a stylised deterministic simulation model of a hydro-power producer (HP) who behaves strategically. We study a non-liberalised market, where the authorities aim to minimise the total electricity cost for customers and a liberalised market where the HP attempts to maximise his contribution. This enables us to evaluate the impact of the liberalisation of HS production decisions on production volumes and electricity prices. We conclude that imposing rigid policies with the aim of limiting the potential for strategic behaviour can create incentives to produce only at very high prices throughout the year. This can lead to very high total costs, especially when the producer has most flexibility (large reservoirs combined with large turbine capacity). More surprisingly, we observe lower total production in a non-liberalised market.

  20. Managing a hydro-energy reservoir: A policy approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ackere, Ann; Ochoa, Patricia

    2010-01-01

    Liberalisation and privatisation have increased the need to gain more understanding into the management of hydro storage (HS) plants. We analyse what types of reservoir management policies enable an owner or a public authority to achieve their respective objectives. By 'policy' we understand simple, easily applicable decision rules, which enable a decision maker to decide when and how much to produce based on currently available information. We use a stylised deterministic simulation model of a hydro-power producer (HP) who behaves strategically. We study a non-liberalised market, where the authorities aim to minimise the total electricity cost for customers and a liberalised market where the HP attempts to maximise his contribution. This enables us to evaluate the impact of the liberalisation of HS production decisions on production volumes and electricity prices. We conclude that imposing rigid policies with the aim of limiting the potential for strategic behaviour can create incentives to produce only at very high prices throughout the year. This can lead to very high total costs, especially when the producer has most flexibility (large reservoirs combined with large turbine capacity). More surprisingly, we observe lower total production in a non-liberalised market. (author)

  1. State of the art of reservoir sedimentation management in Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Avendaño Salas, Cándido; Sanz Montero, Esther; Cobo Rayán, Rafael

    2000-01-01

    Part of the total reservoir storage capacity in Spain (56 km3) is lost due to sedimentation processes taking place. Surveys carried out in 121 reservoirs indicate that 6% of them have undergone a capacity reduction of over 50%. However, most of them (81%) are characterised by a reservoir capacity loss below 20%. The most frequent methods used to control reservoir sedimentation in Spain fall into one of the following groups: reduction of sediment yield through basin management and removal of t...

  2. Reservoir management under consideration of stratification and hydraulic phenomena

    OpenAIRE

    Nandalal, K.D.W.

    1995-01-01


    Reservoirs are the most important components in a water resources system. They are used to store water to extend its temporal availability. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water change when impounded in reservoirs. This implies the possibility of using reservoirs for the control of the quality of water besides merely satisfying the quantity requirement. This study presents several techniques formulated to manage a reservoir when both quantity and quality of...

  3. The role of rainfall variability in reservoir storage management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reservoir operation and management is usually patterned after the background of long standing water resources management experience. Reservoir management for optimum power production at any hydropower station requires constant assessment of the quantity of available water. The hydrographic responses of flow ...

  4. Optimisation of decision making under uncertainty throughout field lifetime: A fractured reservoir example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Dan; Demyanov, Vasily; Christie, Mike; Bakay, Alexander; Gopa, Konstantin

    2016-10-01

    Assessing the change in uncertainty in reservoir production forecasts over field lifetime is rarely undertaken because of the complexity of joining together the individual workflows. This becomes particularly important in complex fields such as naturally fractured reservoirs. The impact of this problem has been identified in previous and many solutions have been proposed but never implemented on complex reservoir problems due to the computational cost of quantifying uncertainty and optimising the reservoir development, specifically knowing how many and what kind of simulations to run. This paper demonstrates a workflow that propagates uncertainty throughout field lifetime, and into the decision making process by a combination of a metric-based approach, multi-objective optimisation and Bayesian estimation of uncertainty. The workflow propagates uncertainty estimates from appraisal into initial development optimisation, then updates uncertainty through history matching and finally propagates it into late-life optimisation. The combination of techniques applied, namely the metric approach and multi-objective optimisation, help evaluate development options under uncertainty. This was achieved with a significantly reduced number of flow simulations, such that the combined workflow is computationally feasible to run for a real-field problem. This workflow is applied to two synthetic naturally fractured reservoir (NFR) case studies in appraisal, field development, history matching and mid-life EOR stages. The first is a simple sector model, while the second is a more complex full field example based on a real life analogue. This study infers geological uncertainty from an ensemble of models that are based on the carbonate Brazilian outcrop which are propagated through the field lifetime, before and after the start of production, with the inclusion of production data significantly collapsing the spread of P10-P90 in reservoir forecasts. The workflow links uncertainty

  5. Use of Decision Tables to Simulate Management in SWAT+

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey G. Arnold

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision tables have been used for many years in data processing and business applications to simulate complex rule sets. Several computer languages have been developed based on rule systems and they are easily programmed in several current languages. Land management and river–reservoir models simulate complex land management operations and reservoir management in highly regulated river systems. Decision tables are a precise yet compact way to model the rule sets and corresponding actions found in these models. In this study, we discuss the suitability of decision tables to simulate management in the river basin scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT+ model. Decision tables are developed to simulate automated irrigation and reservoir releases. A simple auto irrigation application of decision tables was developed using plant water stress as a condition for irrigating corn in Texas. Sensitivity of the water stress trigger and irrigation application amounts were shown on soil moisture and corn yields. In addition, the Grapevine Reservoir near Dallas, Texas was used to illustrate the use of decision tables to simulate reservoir releases. The releases were conditioned on reservoir volumes and flood season. The release rules as implemented by the decision table realistically simulated flood releases as evidenced by a daily Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE of 0.52 and a percent bias of −1.1%. Using decision tables to simulate management in land, river, and reservoir models was shown to have several advantages over current approaches, including: (1 mature technology with considerable literature and applications; (2 ability to accurately represent complex, real world decision-making; (3 code that is efficient, modular, and easy to maintain; and (4 tables that are easy to maintain, support, and modify.

  6. Multipurpose Water Reservoir Management: An Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís A. Scola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The reservoirs that feed large hydropower plants should be managed in order to provide other uses for the water resources. Those uses include, for instance, flood control and avoidance, irrigation, navigability in the rivers, and other ones. This work presents an evolutionary multiobjective optimization approach for the study of multiple water usages in multiple interlinked reservoirs, including both power generation objectives and other objectives not related to energy generation. The classical evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II is employed as the basic multiobjective optimization machinery, being modified in order to cope with specific problem features. The case studies, which include the analysis of a problem which involves an objective of navigability on the river, are tailored in order to illustrate the usefulness of the data generated by the proposed methodology for decision-making on the problem of operation planning of multiple reservoirs with multiple usages. It is shown that it is even possible to use the generated data in order to determine the cost of any new usage of the water, in terms of the opportunity cost that can be measured on the revenues related to electric energy sales.

  7. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling, Class II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergeron, Jack; Blasingame, Tom; Doublet, Louis; Kelkar, Mohan; Freeman, George; Callard, Jeff; Moore, David; Davies, David; Vessell, Richard; Pregger, Brian; Dixon, Bill; Bezant, Bryce

    2000-03-16

    The major purpose of this project was to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

  8. Mrica Reservoir Sedimentation: Current Situation and Future Necessary Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puji Utomo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mrica Reservoir is one of many reservoirs located in Central Java that experienced a considerably high sedimentation during the last ten years. This condition has caused a rapid decrease in reservoir capacity. Various countermeasures have been introduced to reduce the rate of the reservoir sedimentation through catchment management and reservoir operation by means of flushing and/or dredging. However, the sedimentation remains intensive so that the fulfillment of water demand for electrical power generation was seriously affected. This paper presents the results of evaluation on the dynamics of the purpose of this research is to evaluate the sediment balance of the Mrica Reservoir based on two different scenarios, i.e. the existing condition and another certain type of reservoir management. The study on sediment balance was carried out by estimating the sediment inflow applying sheet erosion method in combination with the analysis of sediment rating curve. The measurement of the deposited sediment rate in the reservoir was conducted through the periodic echo sounding, whereas identification of the number of sediment that has been released from the reservoir was carried out through the observation on both flushing and dredging activities. The results show that during the last decade, the rate of the sediment inflow was approximately 5.869 MCM/year, whereas the released sediment from the reservoir was 4.097 MCM/year. In order to maintain the reservoir capacity, therefore, at least 1.772 MCM/year should be released from the reservoir by means of either flushing or dredging. Sedimentation management may prolong the reservoir’s service life to exceed the design life. Without sediment management, the lifetime of the reservoir would have finished by 2016, whereas with the proper management the lifetime may be extended to 2025.

  9. Reservoir area of influence and implications for fisheries management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Dustin R.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the spatial area that a reservoir draws anglers from, defined as the reservoir's area of influence, and the potential overlap of that area of influence between reservoirs is important for fishery managers. Our objective was to define the area of influence for reservoirs of the Salt Valley regional fishery in southeastern Nebraska using kernel density estimation. We used angler survey data obtained from in-person interviews at 17 reservoirs during 2009–2012. The area of influence, defined by the 95% kernel density, for reservoirs within the Salt Valley regional fishery varied, indicating that anglers use reservoirs differently across the regional fishery. Areas of influence reveal angler preferences in a regional context, indicating preferred reservoirs with a greater area of influence. Further, differences in areas of influences across time and among reservoirs can be used as an assessment following management changes on an individual reservoir or within a regional fishery. Kernel density estimation provided a clear method for creating spatial maps of areas of influence and provided a two-dimensional view of angler travel, as opposed to the traditional mean travel distance assessment.

  10. Increasing Waterflood Reserves in the Wilmington Oil Field through Improved Reservoir Characterization and Reservoir Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, D.; Koerner, R.; Moos D.; Nguyen, J.; Phillips, C.; Tagbor, K.; Walker, S.

    1999-04-05

    This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate.

  11. INCREASING WATERFLOOD RESERVES IN THE WILMINGTON OIL FIELD THROUGH IMPROVED RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott Walker; Chris Phillips; Roy Koerner; Don Clarke; Dan Moos; Kwasi Tagbor

    2002-02-28

    This project increased recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs. Transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington Field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project. This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate. Although these reservoirs have been waterflooded over 40 years, researchers have found areas of remaining oil saturation. Areas such as the top sand in the Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the western fault slivers of Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the bottom sands of the Tar Zone Fault Block V, and the eastern edge of Fault Block IV in both the Upper Terminal and Lower Terminal Zones all show significant remaining oil saturation. Each area of interest was uncovered emphasizing a different type of reservoir characterization technique or practice. This was not the original strategy but was necessitated by the different levels of progress in each of the project activities.

  12. Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

    2017-10-01

    The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir. Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  13. Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

    2017-11-13

    The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  14. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly progress report, June 13, 1995--September 12, 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pande, P.K.

    1995-09-12

    At this stage of the reservoir characterization research, the main emphasis is on the geostatistics and reservoir simulation. Progress is reported on geological analysis, reservoir simulation, and reservoir management.

  15. Multi-objective game-theory models for conflict analysis in reservoir watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chih-Sheng

    2012-05-01

    This study focuses on the development of a multi-objective game-theory model (MOGM) for balancing economic and environmental concerns in reservoir watershed management and for assistance in decision. Game theory is used as an alternative tool for analyzing strategic interaction between economic development (land use and development) and environmental protection (water-quality protection and eutrophication control). Geographic information system is used to concisely illustrate and calculate the areas of various land use types. The MOGM methodology is illustrated in a case study of multi-objective watershed management in the Tseng-Wen reservoir, Taiwan. The innovation and advantages of MOGM can be seen in the results, which balance economic and environmental concerns in watershed management and which can be interpreted easily by decision makers. For comparison, the decision-making process using conventional multi-objective method to produce many alternatives was found to be more difficult. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Natural and human drivers of salinity in reservoirs and their implications in water supply operation through a Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, Eva; Gómez-Beas, Raquel; Linares-Sáez, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    changes from 3800 to 5100 μScm-1 in the deepest layers are found with a similar daily water inflow. On the other hand, when reservoir water level is low, salinity increases around 1000 μScm-1 are found with a 2 m water level falling. In view of the influence of water level in the reservoir dynamics, this factor should be considered when dam operation decisions are taken by managers in terms of satisfying the water demand. The results will be implemented in a Decision Support System that is being displayed in the Guadalhorce River and which includes prediction of water quantity and quality in the reservoir in terms of salinity, involving water level and water inflow forecasting as the main factors to control the state of the reservoir and therefore with implications in water management. This methodology could be implemented in other reservoirs with high salinity and be adapted to other substances (such as nutrients and heavy metals) associated to water inflow in water bodies where water quality and quantity are driven by human decisions factors besides natural factors such as floods and dynamics of flows in the reservoir.

  17. Adaptive Regulation of the Northern California Reservoir System for Water, Energy, and Environmental Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, A. P.; Kistenmacher, M.; Yao, H.; Georgakakos, K. P.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 National Climate Assessment of the US Global Change Research Program emphasizes that water resources managers and planners in most US regions will have to cope with new risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities, and recommends the development of adaptive capacity to effectively respond to the new water resources planning and management challenges. In the face of these challenges, adaptive reservoir regulation is becoming all the more ncessary. Water resources management in Northern California relies on the coordinated operation of several multi-objective reservoirs on the Trinity, Sacramento, American, Feather, and San Joaquin Rivers. To be effective, reservoir regulation must be able to (a) account for forecast uncertainty; (b) assess changing tradeoffs among water uses and regions; and (c) adjust management policies as conditions change; and (d) evaluate the socio-economic and environmental benefits and risks of forecasts and policies for each region and for the system as a whole. The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) prototype demonstration project operated in Northern California through the collaboration of several forecast and management agencies has shown that decision support systems (DSS) with these attributes add value to stakeholder decision processes compared to current, less flexible management practices. Key features of the INFORM DSS include: (a) dynamically downscaled operational forecasts and climate projections that maintain the spatio-temporal coherence of the downscaled land surface forcing fields within synoptic scales; (b) use of ensemble forecast methodologies for reservoir inflows; (c) assessment of relevant tradeoffs among water uses on regional and local scales; (d) development and evaluation of dynamic reservoir policies with explicit consideration of hydro-climatic forecast uncertainties; and (e) focus on stakeholder information needs.This article discusses the INFORM integrated design concept, underlying

  18. New developments in high resolution borehole seismology and their applications to reservoir development and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsson, B.N.P. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Single-well seismology, Reverse Vertical Seismic Profiles (VSP`s) and Crosswell seismology are three new seismic techniques that we jointly refer to as borehole seismology. Borehole seismic techniques are of great interest because they can obtain much higher resolution images of oil and gas reservoirs than what is obtainable with currently used seismic techniques. The quality of oil and gas reservoir management decisions depend on the knowledge of both the large and the fine scale features in the reservoirs. Borehole seismology is capable of mapping reservoirs with an order of magnitude improvement in resolution compared with currently used technology. In borehole seismology we use a high frequency seismic source in an oil or gas well and record the signal in the same well, in other wells, or on the surface of the earth.

  19. Increasing Waterflooding Reservoirs in the Wilmington Oil Field through Improved Reservoir Characterization and Reservoir Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koerner, Roy; Clarke, Don; Walker, Scott

    1999-11-09

    The objectives of this quarterly report was to summarize the work conducted under each task during the reporting period April - June 1998 and to report all technical data and findings as specified in the ''Federal Assistance Reporting Checklist''. The main objective of this project is the transfer of technologies, methodologies, and findings developed and applied in this project to other operators of Slope and Basin Clastic Reservoirs. This project will study methods to identify sands with high remaining oil saturation and to recomplete existing wells using advanced completion technology.

  20. Master plan: Guntersville Reservoir Aquatic Plant Management. Executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-12-31

    In 1989, Congress provided funding to start a five-year comprehensive project to manage aquatic plants in Guntersville Reservoir, to be jointly implemented by the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). TVA serves as the overall project coordinator and is the lead agency for this project. Known as the Joint Agency Guntersville Project (JAGP), the project will test and demonstrate innovative management technologies, and incorporate the most effective technologies into a comprehensive aquatic plant management plan for Guntersville Reservoir. The JAGP is intended to serve as a National Demonstration Project for aquatic plant management. As part of this JAGP, the Master Plan for Aquatic Plant Management for the Guntersville Reservoir Project, Alabama-Tennessee is authorized by Corps Contract Number DACW62-90-C-0067.

  1. Decision support for emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, V.

    1989-05-01

    A short introduction will be given to the Nordic project ''NKA/INF: Information Technology for Accident and Emergency Management'', which is now in its final phase. To perform evaluation of the project, special scenarious have been developed, and experiments based on these will be fulfilled and compared with experiments without use of the decision support system. Furthermore, the succeeding European project, ''IT Support for Emergency Management - ISEM'', with the purpose of developing a decision support system for complex and distributed decision making in emergency management in full scale, will be described and the preliminary conceptual model for the system will be presented. (author)

  2. Conservation implications of weed management of lake reservoirs ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Management of weeds around lake reservoirs is often implemented to reduce any possibility of siltation. However, machineries used in weed management have resulted in habitat degradation and geometrical multiplication of weeds by chopping rhizomes and scattering seeds. In general, the removal offers some feedbacks ...

  3. Flood risk management for large reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poupart, M.

    2006-01-01

    Floods are a major risk for dams: uncontrolled reservoir water level may cause dam overtopping, and then its failure, particularly for fill dams. Poor control of spillway discharges must be taken into consideration too, as it can increase the flood consequences downstream. In both cases, consequences on the public or on properties may be significant. Spillway design to withstand extreme floods is one response to these risks, but must be complemented by strict operating rules: hydrological forecasting, surveillance and periodic equipment controls, operating guides and the training of operators are mandatory too, in order to guarantee safe operations. (author)

  4. A Study of the Optimal Planning Model for Reservoir Sustainable Management- A Case Study of Shihmen Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.

  5. Dredged Material Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement. McNary Reservoir and Lower Snake River Reservoirs. Appendix C: Economic Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    ...; for managment of dredged material from these reservoirs; and for maintenance of flow conveyance capacity at the most upstream extent of the Lower Granite reservoir for the remaining economic life of the dam and reservoir project (to year 2074...

  6. Automatic high frequency monitoring for improved lake and reservoir management

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Marcé, R.; George, G.; Buscarinu, P.; Deidda, M.; Dunalska, J.; de Eyto, E.; Flaim, G.; Grossart, H. P.; Istvánovics, V.; Lenhardt, M.; Moreno-Ostos, E.; Obrador, B.; Ostrovsky, I.; Pierson, D. C.; Potužák, Jan; Poikane, S.; Rinke, K.; Rodríguez-Mozaz, S.; Staehr, P. A.; Šumberová, Kateřina; Waajen, G.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.; Weathers, K. C.; Zion, M.; Ibelings, B. W.; Jennings, E.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 20 (2016), s. 10780-10794 ISSN 0013-936X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD14045 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : monitoring of water resources * water reservoir management * sensors Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.198, year: 2016

  7. Value of information in closed-loop reservoir managment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barros, E.G.D.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    This paper proposes a new methodology to perform value of information (VOI) analysis within a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) framework. The workflow combines tools such as robust optimization and history matching in an environment of uncertainty characterization. The approach is illustrated

  8. Development of a management tool for reservoirs in Mediterranean environments based on uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Beas, R.; Moñino, A.; Polo, M. J.

    2012-05-01

    In compliance with the development of the Water Framework Directive, there is a need for an integrated management of water resources, which involves the elaboration of reservoir management models. These models should include the operational and technical aspects which allow us to forecast an optimal management in the short term, besides the factors that may affect the volume of water stored in the medium and long term. The climate fluctuations of the water cycle that affect the reservoir watershed should be considered, as well as the social and economic aspects of the area. This paper shows the development of a management model for Rules reservoir (southern Spain), through which the water supply is regulated based on set criteria, in a sustainable way with existing commitments downstream, with the supply capacity being well established depending on demand, and the probability of failure when the operating requirements are not fulfilled. The results obtained allowed us: to find out the reservoir response at different time scales, to introduce an uncertainty analysis and to demonstrate the potential of the methodology proposed here as a tool for decision making.

  9. Group Decisions in Value Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiono Utomo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This research deals with a technique to expedite group decision making during the selection of technical solutions for value management process. Selection of a solution from a set of alternatives is facilitated by evaluating using multicriteria decision making techniques. During the process, every possible solution is rated on criteria of function and cost. Function deals more with quality than with quantity, and cost can be calculated based on the theoretical time value of money. Decision-making techniques based on satisfying games are applied to determine the relative function and cost of solutions and hence their relative value. The functions were determined by function analysis system technique. Analytical hierarchy process was applied to decision making and life-cycle cost analysis were used to calculate cost. Cooperative decision making was shown to consist of identifying agreement options, analyzing, and forming coalitions. The objective was attained using the satisfying game model as a basis for two main preferences. The model will improve the value of decision regarding design. It further emphasizes the importance of performance evaluation in the design process and value analysis. The result of the implementation, when applied to the selection of a building wall system, demonstrates a process of selecting the most valuable technical solution as the best-fit option for all decision makers. This work is relevant to group decision making and negotiation, as it aims to provide a framework to support negotiation in design activity.

  10. Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drilling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P. K. Pande

    1998-10-29

    Initial drilling of wells on a uniform spacing, without regard to reservoir performance and characterization, must become a process of the past. Such efforts do not optimize reservoir development as they fail to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. These reservoirs are typically characterized by: o Large, discontinuous pay intervals o Vertical and lateral changes in reservoir properties o Low reservoir energy o High residual oil saturation o Low recovery efficiency

  11. The management of the Diama reservoir (Senegal River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvail, S.; Hamerlynck, O.

    2003-04-01

    The Senegal River is regulated by 2 dams built in the 1980's by the "Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du fleuve Sénégal" (OMVS), a river basin management organisation grouping Mali, Senegal and Mauritania. The initial objectives of OMVS, which were to regulate the Senegal flows in order to develop irrigated agriculture, produce hydropower and facilitate river navigation has been only partially met. The maintenance of the annual flood by the upstream dam (Manantali), initially to be phased out when irrigated agriculture would have replaced the traditional recession agriculture, is now scheduled to continue indefinitely on the basis of socio-economic and environmental concerns. This change of mindset has however not affected the management of the downstream dam (Diama). Initially conceived as a salt-wedge dam, its function evolved to a reservoir dam with a high and constant water level. During the dry season, the water level is maintained high and constant in order to reduce the pumping costs for the irrigated agriculture in the delta. During the flood season (July-October) the dam is primarily managed for risk avoidance: limit flooding downstream of the dam (especially the city of St. Louis) and secure the infrastructure of the dam itself. The permanent freshwater reservoir lake has adverse effects on ecosystems, on human and animal health and a high social cost for the traditional stakeholders of the deltaic floodplain (fishermen, livestock keepers and gatherers). Upstream of the reservoir there is an excess of stagnant freshwater and managers are confronted with the development of invasive species while substantial downstream flooding is essential for the estuarine ecosystems and local livelihoods. The presentation will review the different approaches to the management of the Diama reservoir and proposes different management scenarios and compares their economical, environmental, and social costs and benefits.

  12. Evaluation of sediment management strategies on reservoir storage depletion rate: a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M.; Sterk, G.

    2010-01-01

    Sedimentation aspects have a major role during the design of new reservoir projects because life of the reservoir mainly depends upon sediment handling during reservoir operation. Therefore, proper sediment management strategies should be adopted to enhance the life span of reservoirs. Basha

  13. The role of predictive uncertainty in the operational management of reservoirs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Todini

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The present work deals with the operational management of multi-purpose reservoirs, whose optimisation-based rules are derived, in the planning phase, via deterministic (linear and nonlinear programming, dynamic programming, etc. or via stochastic (generally stochastic dynamic programming approaches. In operation, the resulting deterministic or stochastic optimised operating rules are then triggered based on inflow predictions. In order to fully benefit from predictions, one must avoid using them as direct inputs to the reservoirs, but rather assess the "predictive knowledge" in terms of a predictive probability density to be operationally used in the decision making process for the estimation of expected benefits and/or expected losses. Using a theoretical and extremely simplified case, it will be shown why directly using model forecasts instead of the full predictive density leads to less robust reservoir management decisions. Moreover, the effectiveness and the tangible benefits for using the entire predictive probability density instead of the model predicted values will be demonstrated on the basis of the Lake Como management system, operational since 1997, as well as on the basis of a case study on the lake of Aswan.

  14. Variability in perceived satisfaction of reservoir management objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, W.J.; Gates, T.K.; Flug, M.

    1997-01-01

    Fuzzy set theory provides a useful model to address imprecision in interpreting linguistically described objectives for reservoir management. Fuzzy membership functions can be used to represent degrees of objective satisfaction for different values of management variables. However, lack of background information, differing experiences and qualifications, and complex interactions of influencing factors can contribute to significant variability among membership functions derived from surveys of multiple experts. In the present study, probabilistic membership functions are used to model variability in experts' perceptions of satisfaction of objectives for hydropower generation, fish habitat, kayaking, rafting, and scenery preservation on the Green River through operations of Flaming Gorge Dam. Degree of variability in experts' perceptions differed among objectives but resulted in substantial uncertainty in estimation of optimal reservoir releases.

  15. NN-Based Implicit Stochastic Optimization of Multi-Reservoir Systems Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Sangiorgio

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi-reservoir systems management is complex because of the uncertainty on future events and the variety of purposes, usually conflicting, of the involved actors. An efficient management of these systems can help improving resource allocation, preventing political crisis and reducing the conflicts between the stakeholders. Bellman stochastic dynamic programming (SDP is the most famous among the many proposed approaches to solve this optimal control problem. Unfortunately, SDP is affected by the curse of dimensionality: computational effort increases exponentially with the complexity of the considered system (i.e., number of reservoirs, and the problem rapidly becomes intractable. This paper proposes an implicit stochastic optimization approach for the solution of the reservoir management problem. The core idea is using extremely flexible functions, such as artificial neural networks (NN, for designing release rules which approximate the optimal policies obtained by an open-loop approach. These trained NNs can then be used to take decisions in real time. The approach thus requires a sufficiently long series of historical or synthetic inflows, and the definition of a compromise solution to be approximated. This work analyzes with particular emphasis the importance of the information which represents the input of the control laws, investigating the effects of different degrees of completeness. The methodology is applied to the Nile River basin considering the main management objectives (minimization of the irrigation water deficit and maximization of the hydropower production, but can be easily adopted also in other cases.

  16. 75 FR 6257 - Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan, Loudon, Meigs, Rhea, and Roane Counties, TN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-08

    ... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan, Loudon, Meigs, Rhea, and... Watts Bar Reservoir in Tennessee. On November 19, 2009, the TVA Board of Directors (TVA Board) decided... the final environmental impact statement (FEIS) for the Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan...

  17. 75 FR 77691 - Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, in Cocke, Greene, Hamblen...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-13

    ... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, in... the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). TVA has prepared the Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary... Douglas and Nolichucky tributary reservoirs has been allocated into broad use categories or ``zones...

  18. Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations: Bringing Science and Decision-Makers Together to Explore Use of Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Support Future Reservoir Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, F. M.; Jasperse, J.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a proposed strategy that is exploring inorporation of improved hydrometeorological forecasts of land-falling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast into reservoir operations. The first testbed for this strategy is Lake Mendocino, which is located in the East Fork of the 1485 mi2 Russian River Watershed in northern California. This project is guided by the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC). The SC is an ad hoc committee that consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current or improved technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve water supply reliability, enhance flood mitigation and support recovery of listed salmon for the Russian River of northern California. In 2015, the SC created a detailed work plan, which included a Preliminary Viability Assessment, which has now been completed. The SC developed a vision that operational efficiency would be improved by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water. FIRO would use available reservoir storage in an efficient manner by (1) better forecasting inflow (or lack of inflow) with enhanced technology, and (2) adapting operation in real time to meet the need for storage, rather than making storage available just in case it is needed. The envisioned FIRO strategy has the potential to simultaneously improve water supply reliability, flood protection, and ecosystem outcomes through a more efficient use of existing infrastructure while requiring minimal capital improvements in the physical structure of the dam. This presentation will provide an overview of the creation of the FIRO SC and how it operates, and describes the lessons learned through this partnership. Results in the FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment will be summarized and next steps described.

  19. 29 CFR 99.405 - Management decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Management decision. 99.405 Section 99.405 Labor Office of... Agencies and Pass-through Entities § 99.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... process available to the auditee. (b) Federal agency. As provided in § 99.400(a)(7), the cognizant agency...

  20. Application of the Ommaya Reservoir in Managing Ventricular Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xi-Tao; Feng, Dong-Fu; Zhao, Liang; Sun, Zhao-Liang; Zhao, Gang

    2016-05-01

    Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. This study evaluated the safety and efficacy of the combined treatment of an Ommaya reservoir and conventional external ventricular drainage (EVD) using urokinase in the management of IVH. We performed a prospective controlled study. Sixty eligible patients with IVH received conventional EVD alone (group A) or combined EVD and Ommaya reservoir (group B) between January 2010 and January 2015. Clinical, cerebrospinal fluid, and radiographic data were used to assess clot clearance, clinical outcomes, and complications between the groups. There were no significant differences in gender, age, blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, Graeb score, intracerebral hemorrhage volume on admission, and IVH volume before surgery between groups A and B (P > 0.05). The number of injections of urokinase (20,000 IU/dose) were significantly different in group B compared with group A (P 0.05). The hydrocephalus incidence and mortality revealed significant differences between the 2 groups (P safe and effective in patients with IVH. It increased clot clearance, shortened conventional catheter-based EVD duration, prolonged total drainage time, reduced the hydrocephalus incidence and mortality, and contributed to good clinical outcomes. The Ommaya reservoir provides a safe way to increase the injection times of urokinase, which accelerated clot resolution and did not increase the risk for ventriculitis infection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Decision models in engineering and management

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

  2. Decision Exploration Lab : A Visual Analytics Solution for Decision Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Alex; Crisafulli, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business

  3. Hydroeconomic optimization of reservoir management under downstream water quality constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo

    2015-01-01

    water quantity and water quality management and minimizes the total costs over a planning period assuming stochastic future runoff. The outcome includes cost-optimal reservoir releases, groundwater pumping, water allocation, wastewater treatments and water curtailments. The optimization model uses......), and the resulting minimum dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is computed with the Streeter-Phelps equation and constrained to match Chinese water quality targets. The baseline water scarcity and operational costs are estimated to 15.6. billion. CNY/year. Compliance to water quality grade III causes a relatively...

  4. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  5. Valuing hydrological alteration in Multi-Objective reservoir management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bizzi, S.; Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

    2012-04-01

    Water management through dams and reservoirs is worldwide necessary to support key human-related activities ranging from hydropower production to water allocation for agricultural production, and flood risk mitigation. Advances in multi-objectives (MO) optimization techniques and ever growing computing power make it possible to design reservoir operating policies that represent Pareto-optimal tradeoffs between the multiple interests analysed. These progresses if on one hand are likely to enhance performances of commonly targeted objectives (such as hydropower production or water supply), on the other risk to strongly penalize all the interests not directly (i.e. mathematically) optimized within the MO algorithm. Alteration of hydrological regime, although is a well established cause of ecological degradation and its evaluation and rehabilitation are commonly required by recent legislation (as the Water Framework Directive in Europe), is rarely embedded as an objective in MO planning of optimal releases from reservoirs. Moreover, even when it is explicitly considered, the criteria adopted for its evaluation are doubted and not commonly trusted, undermining the possibility of real implementation of environmentally friendly policies. The main challenges in defining and assessing hydrological alterations are: how to define a reference state (referencing); how to define criteria upon which to build mathematical indicators of alteration (measuring); and finally how to aggregate the indicators in a single evaluation index that can be embedded in a MO optimization problem (valuing). This paper aims to address these issues by: i) discussing benefits and constrains of different approaches to referencing, measuring and valuing hydrological alteration; ii) testing two alternative indices of hydrological alteration in the context of MO problems, one based on the established framework of Indices of Hydrological Alteration (IHA, Richter et al., 1996), and a novel satisfying the

  6. Review and Evaluation of Reservoir Management Strategies for Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-28

    Abstract The purpose of this report is to review and evaluate available infor- mation regarding reservoir operation strategies for management of...12 3 Operations Management Examples ............................................................................ 16...report is to review and evaluate available information regarding reservoir operation strategies for management of harmful algal ERDC/EL TR-17-11 2

  7. Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Mark C.

    2009-01-01

    A set of watershed models for four basins (Crab Creek, Rocky Ford Creek, Rocky Coulee, and Lind Coulee), draining into Potholes Reservoir in east-central Washington, was developed as part of a decision support system to aid the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, in managing water resources in east-central Washington State. The project is part of the U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Reclamation collaborative Watershed and River Systems Management Program. A conceptual model of hydrology is outlined for the study area that highlights the significant processes that are important to accurately simulate discharge under a wide range of conditions. The conceptual model identified the following factors as significant for accurate discharge simulations: (1) influence of frozen ground on peak discharge, (2) evaporation and ground-water flow as major pathways in the system, (3) channel losses, and (4) influence of irrigation practices on reducing or increasing discharge. The Modular Modeling System was used to create a watershed model for the four study basins by combining standard Precipitation Runoff Modeling System modules with modified modules from a previous study and newly modified modules. The model proved unreliable in simulating peak-flow discharge because the index used to track frozen ground conditions was not reliable. Mean monthly and mean annual discharges were more reliable when simulated. Data from seven USGS streamflow-gaging stations were used to compare with simulated discharge for model calibration and evaluation. Mean annual differences between simulated and observed discharge varied from 1.2 to 13.8 percent for all stations used in the comparisons except one station on a regional ground-water discharge stream. Two thirds of the mean monthly percent differences between the simulated mean and the observed mean discharge for these six stations were between -20 and 240 percent, or in absolute terms, between -0.8 and 11 cubic feet per

  8. Many-Objective Reservoir Policy Identification and Refinement to Reduce Institutional Myopia in Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, M.; Herman, J. D.; Castelletti, A.; Reed, P. M.

    2013-12-01

    Institutional inertia strongly limits our ability to adapt water reservoir operations to better manage growing water demands as well as their associated uncertainties in a changing climate. Although it has long been recognized that these systems are generally framed in heterogeneous socio-economic contexts involving a myriad of conflicting, non-commensurable operating objectives, our broader understanding of the multiobjective consequences of current operating rules as well as their vulnerability to hydroclimatic uncertainties is severely limited. This study proposes a decision analytic framework to overcome policy inertia and myopia in complex river basin management contexts. The framework combines reservoir policy identification and many-objective optimization under uncertainty to characterize current operations and discover key tradeoffs between alternative policies for balancing evolving demands and system uncertainties. The approach is demonstrated on the Conowingo Dam, located within the Lower Susquehanna River, USA. The Lower Susquehanna River is an interstate water body that has been subject to intensive water management efforts due to the system's competing demands from urban water supply, atomic power plant cooling, hydropower production, and federally regulated environmental flows. Initially our proposed framework uses available streamflow observations to implicitly identify the Conowingo Dam's current but unknown operating policy. This baseline policy is identified by fitting radial basis functions to existing system dynamics. Our assumption in the baseline policy is that the dam operator is represented as a rational agent seeking to maximize primary operational objectives (i.e., guaranteeing the public water supply and maximizing the hydropower revenue). The quality of the identified baseline policy is evaluated by its ability to replicate historical release dynamics. Once identified, the historical baseline policy then provides a means of representing

  9. Assessing water reservoirs management and development in Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Castelletti

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In many developing countries water is a key renewable resource to complement carbon-emitting energy production and support food security in the face of demand pressure from fast-growing industrial production and urbanization. To cope with undergoing changes, water resources development and management have to be reconsidered by enlarging their scope across sectors and adopting effective tools to analyze current and projected infrastructure potential and operation strategies. In this paper we use multi-objective deterministic and stochastic optimization to assess the current reservoir operation and planned capacity expansion in the Red River Basin (Northern Vietnam, and to evaluate the potential improvement by the adoption of a more sophisticated information system. To reach this goal we analyze the historical operation of the major controllable infrastructure in the basin, the HoaBinh reservoir on the Da River, explore re-operation options corresponding to different tradeoffs among the three main objectives (hydropower production, flood control and water supply, using multi-objective optimization techniques, namely Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. Finally, we assess the structural system potential and the need for capacity expansion by application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming. Results show that the current operation can only be relatively improved by advanced optimization techniques, while investment should be put into enlarging the system storage capacity and exploiting additional information to inform the operation.

  10. Reservoir management under consideration of stratification and hydraulic phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nandalal, K.D.W.

    1995-01-01


    Reservoirs are the most important components in a water resources system. They are used to store water to extend its temporal availability. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water change when impounded in reservoirs. This implies the possibility of using reservoirs

  11. Financial Risk Reduction and Management of Water Reservoirs Using Forecasts: A Case for Pernambuco, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, I.; Josset, L.; e Silva, E. C.; Possas, J. M. C.; Asfora, M. C.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The financial health and sustainability, ensuring adequate supply, and adapting to climate are fundamental challenges faced by water managers. These challenges are worsened in semi-arid regions with socio-economic pressures, seasonal supply of water, and projected increase in intensity and frequency of droughts. Over time, probabilistic rainfall forecasts are improving and for water managers, it could be key in addressing the above challenges. Using forecasts can also help make informed decisions about future infrastructure. The study proposes a model to minimize cost of water supply (including cost of deficit) given ensemble forecasts. The model can be applied to seasonal to annual ensemble forecasts, to determine the least cost solution. The objective of the model is to evaluate the resiliency and cost associated to supplying water. A case study is conducted in one of the largest reservoirs (Jucazinho) in Pernambuco state, Brazil, and four other reservoirs, which provide water to nineteen municipalities in the Jucazinho system. The state has been in drought since 2011, and the Jucazinho reservoir, has been empty since January 2017. The importance of climate adaptation along with risk management and financial sustainability are important to the state as it is extremely vulnerable to droughts, and has seasonal streamflow. The objectives of the case study are first, to check if streamflow forecasts help reduce future supply costs by comparing k-nearest neighbor ensemble forecasts with a fixed release policy. Second, to determine the value of future infrastructure, a new source of supply from Rio São Francisco, considered to mitigate drought conditions. The study concludes that using forecasts improve the supply and financial sustainability of water, by reducing cost of failure. It also concludes that additional infrastructure can help reduce the risks of failure significantly, but does not guarantee supply during prolonged droughts like the one experienced

  12. Seven business models for decision management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Eline de Haan; Koen Smit

    2016-01-01

    Research, advisory companies, consultants and system integrators all predict that a lot of money will be earned with decision management (business rules, algorithms and analytics). But how can you actually make money with decision management or in other words: Which business models are exactly

  13. Decision support for utility environmental risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balson, W.E.; Wilson, D.S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews a number of decision support methods developed and applied by Decision Focus Incorporated to help utility personnel manage current environmental problems. This work has been performed for the Environmental Risk Analysis Program of EPRI's Environment Division, and also for a number of electric utilities across the country. These are two distinct types of decision support software tools that have been created: economic risk management and environmental risk analysis. These types differ primarily in the identification of who will make a decision. Economic risk management tools are directed primarily at decisions made by electric utilities. Environmental risk analysis tools are directed primarily at decisions made by legislative or regulatory agencies, about which a utility may wish to comment

  14. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  15. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  16. Sparse Bayesian learning machine for real-time management of reservoir releases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalil, Abedalrazq; McKee, Mac; Kemblowski, Mariush; Asefa, Tirusew

    2005-11-01

    Water scarcity and uncertainties in forecasting future water availabilities present serious problems for basin-scale water management. These problems create a need for intelligent prediction models that learn and adapt to their environment in order to provide water managers with decision-relevant information related to the operation of river systems. This manuscript presents examples of state-of-the-art techniques for forecasting that combine excellent generalization properties and sparse representation within a Bayesian paradigm. The techniques are demonstrated as decision tools to enhance real-time water management. A relevance vector machine, which is a probabilistic model, has been used in an online fashion to provide confident forecasts given knowledge of some state and exogenous conditions. In practical applications, online algorithms should recognize changes in the input space and account for drift in system behavior. Support vectors machines lend themselves particularly well to the detection of drift and hence to the initiation of adaptation in response to a recognized shift in system structure. The resulting model will normally have a structure and parameterization that suits the information content of the available data. The utility and practicality of this proposed approach have been demonstrated with an application in a real case study involving real-time operation of a reservoir in a river basin in southern Utah.

  17. Solutions for decision support in university management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei STANCIU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes an overview of decision support systems in order to define the role of a system to assist decision in university management. The authors present new technologies and the basic concepts of multidimensional data analysis using models of business processes within the universities. Based on information provided by scientific literature and on the authors’ experience, the study aims to define selection criteria in choosing a development environment for designing a support system dedicated to university management. The contributions consist in designing a data warehouse model and models of OLAP analysis to assist decision in university management.

  18. Characteristics of a bottomland hardwood forest under greentree reservoir management in East Central Arkansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael R. Guttery; Andrew W. Ezell

    2006-01-01

    Greentree reservoirs are a viable option for creating habitat and hunting opportunities for migrating waterfowl. Unfortunately, the prolonged annual flooding often associated with greentree reservoir management can be highly detrimental to many of the desirable tree species in these stands. In the summer of 2004, a total of 327 plot centers were established in a...

  19. Improved water management with the development of Snake Lake Reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemp, P.; Miller, D.; Webber, J.

    1998-01-01

    The $10.3 million Snake Lake Reservoir which is located south of the TransCanada Highway between Bassano and Brooks, in Alberta, was completed in 1997. It provides 19.1 million cubic meters of storage to improve the water supply for the irrigation of 29,000 hectares of agricultural land in the Eastern Irrigation District. One of challenges that engineers faced during the construction of the reservoir was the extremely soft dam foundation conditions. The resolution of this and other challenges are discussed. In addition to water storage, the reservoir also provides wildlife, recreation and aquaculture opportunities. 8 refs., 5 figs

  20. Solid Waste Management Holistic Decision Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2008-01-01

    This study provides support to the Bank's ability to conduct client dialogue on solid waste management technology selection, and will contribute to client decision-making. The goal of the study was to fully explore the use of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Research Triangle Institute (EPA/RTI) holistic decision model to study alternative solid waste systems in a ...

  1. Navy Inventory Management Decision-Making

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    MacDonald, Steven

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis asserts that Navy inventory managers do not have a general tendency to overbuy items, but rather make rational purchasing decisions influenced and motivated by the environment of rewards...

  2. Management Optimization of Saguling Reservoir with Bellman Dynamic Programming and “Du Couloir” Iterative Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Marselina

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The increasingly growth of population and industry sector have lead to an enhanced demand for electrical energy. One of the electricity providers in the area of Java-Madura Bali (Jamali is Saguling Reservoir. Saguling Reservoir is one of the three reservoirs that stem the flow of Citarum River in advance of to Jatiluhur and Cirata Reservoir. The average electricity production of Saguling Reservoir was 2,334,318.138 MWh/year in the period of 1986-2014. The water intake of Saguling Reservoir is the upstream Citarum Watershed with an area of 2340.88 km2 which also serves as the irrigation, inland fisheries, recreation, and other activities. An effort to improve the function of Saguling Reservoir in producing electrical energy is by optimizing the reservoir management. The optimization of Saguling Reservoir management in this study refers to Government Regulation No. 37/2010 on Dam/Reservoir Article 44 which states that the system of reservoir management consisting of the operation system in dry years, normal years, and wet years. In this research, the determination of the trajectory guideline in Saguling operation was divided in dry, normal and wet years. Trajectory guideline was conducted based on the electricity price of turbine inflow that various in every month. The determination of the trajectory guideline in various electricity price was done by using Program Dynamic Bellman (PD Bellman and “Du Couloir” iterative method which the objective to optimize the gain from electricity production. and “Du Couloir” iterative method was development of PD Bellman that can calculate the value of gain with a smaller discretization until 0,1 juta m3 effectively where PD Bellman just calculate until 10 million m3.  Smaller discretization can give maximum benefit from electricity production and the trajectory guideline will be closer to trajectory actual so optimization of Saguling operation will be achieved.

  3. Effects of dredging and macrophyte management on the fish species composition in an old Neotropical reservoir

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    André Luiz Henríques Esguícero

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Aim: As part of the remodeling of an almost century-old dam, in the Rio Jacaré-Guaçu, the dredging and management of macrophytes were carried out in the Gavião Peixoto Reservoir (São Paulo State, Brazil. Data for the reservoir and a river stretch upstream the reservoir were compared, for evaluating the effects of the management procedures. Methods The fish fauna and physical and chemical factors were studied during five years, before (2005-2006 and after the recovery procedures (2007-2009, once a year, during the rainy season. Fishes were caught by gill nets, 10 m long and 1.5, 4, and 6 cm-mesh between adjacent knots. Results After the management procedures, the values of pH and dissolved oxygen increased in the reservoir, whereas conductivity decreased, bringing them closer to those of the upstream stretch. Species richness, diversity, and Catch per Unit Effort in number and biomass, increased in the reservoir after the management. Conclusions After the recovery procedures, the composition of the fish fauna in the reservoir was similar to that of the upstream stretch. The dredging and management of macrophytes in the reservoir benefited the fish fauna diversity, through improvement in water quality and space expansion.

  4. Management of complex multi-reservoir water distribution systems using advanced control theoretic tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Chmielowski, Wojciech Z

    2013-01-01

    This study discusses issues of optimal water management in a complex distribution system. The main elements of the water-management system under consideration are retention reservoirs, among which water transfers are possible, and a network of connections between these reservoirs and water treatment plants (WTPs). System operation optimisation involves determining the proper water transport routes and their flow volumes from the retention reservoirs to the WTPs, and the volumes of possible transfers among the reservoirs, taking into account transport-related delays for inflows, outflows and water transfers in the system. Total system operation costs defined by an assumed quality coefficient should be minimal. An analytical solution of the optimisation task so formulated has been obtained as a result of using Pontriagin’s maximum principle with reference to the quality coefficient assumed. Stable start and end conditions in reservoir state trajectories have been assumed. The researchers have taken into accou...

  5. Screening reservoir systems by considering the efficient trade-offs—informing infrastructure investment decisions on the Blue Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geressu, Robel T.; Harou, Julien J.

    2015-12-01

    Multi-reservoir system planners should consider how new dams impact downstream reservoirs and the potential contribution of each component to coordinated management. We propose an optimized multi-criteria screening approach to identify best performing designs, i.e., the selection, size and operating rules of new reservoirs within multi-reservoir systems. Reservoir release operating rules and storage sizes are optimized concurrently for each separate infrastructure design under consideration. Outputs reveal system trade-offs using multi-dimensional scatter plots where each point represents an approximately Pareto-optimal design. The method is applied to proposed Blue Nile River reservoirs in Ethiopia, where trade-offs between total and firm energy output, aggregate storage and downstream irrigation and energy provision for the best performing designs are evaluated. This proof-of concept study shows that recommended Blue Nile system designs would depend on whether monthly firm energy or annual energy is prioritized. 39 TWh/yr of energy potential is available from the proposed Blue Nile reservoirs. The results show that depending on the amount of energy deemed sufficient, the current maximum capacities of the planned reservoirs could be larger than they need to be. The method can also be used to inform which of the proposed reservoir type and their storage sizes would allow for the highest downstream benefits to Sudan in different objectives of upstream operating objectives (i.e., operated to maximize either average annual energy or firm energy). The proposed approach identifies the most promising system designs, reveals how they imply different trade-offs between metrics of system performance, and helps system planners asses the sensitivity of overall performance to the design parameters of component reservoirs.

  6. An environmental data base for all Hydro-Quebec reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demers, C.

    1988-01-01

    Hydro-Quebec has created two management positions specifically for reservoirs, namely Reservoir Ecology Advisor and Reservoir Management Advisor. To assist management decisions, a means was required of bringing together all existing environmental information for each reservoir operated by Hydro-Quebec, including storage reservoirs, auxiliary reservoirs and forebays. A relational database using Reflex software was developed on a network of Macintosh computers. The database contains five blocks of information: general information, and physical, physiochemical, biologic and socioeconomic characteristics for each reservoir. Data will be collected on over 100 sites, and the tool will form the basis for developing a medium-range study program on reservoir ecology. The program must take into account the physical, biological and socioeconomic aspects of the environment, as well as the concerns of management personnel operating the reservoirs, the local population, reservoir users, and various government departments. 2 figs

  7. Use of modified nanoparticles in oil and gas reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turkenburg, D.H.; Chin, P.T.K.; Fischer, H.R.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a water dispersed nano sensor cocktail based on InP/ZnS quantum dots (QDs) and atomic silver clusters with a bright and visible luminescence combined with optimized sensor functionalities for the water flooding process. The QDs and Ag nano sensors were tested in simulated reservoir

  8. Fishery management problems and possibilities on large southeastern reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, John W.

    1958-01-01

    Principal problems concerning the fisheries of large reservoirs in the Southeast are: inefficient and highly selective exploitation of fish stocks, and protection and reclamation of damaged or threatened fisheries in tailwaters and tributary streams. Seven mainstream reservoirs on which data are available support an average angling pressure of 4.9 trips per acre per year and an average catch of 16 pounds of sport fish and 6 pounds of food fish. Commercial take is 7 pounds per acre. The rate of catch of sport fish, based upon tag returns, is only 3 percent. Sixteen storage reservoirs support an average angling pressure of 5.0 trips per acre per year and an average catch of 13 pounds of sport fish and 1 pound of food fish. Commercial catch is of no significance. Average rate of catch of sport fish is 17 percent of the catchable population. Fish population studies indicate that there are twice as many sport fish and four times as many food fish in mainstream than there are in storage reservoirs.

  9. Design and modeling of reservoir operation strategies for sediment management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloff, C.J.; Omer, A.Y.A.; Heynert, K.V.; Mohamed, Y.A.

    2015-01-01

    Appropriate operation strategies that allow for sediment flushing and sluicing (sediment routing) can reduce rapid storage losses of (hydropower and water-supply) reservoirs. In this study we have shown, using field observations and computational models, that the efficiency of these operations

  10. Chinese business managers' moral decision-making

    OpenAIRE

    LIN, NASA

    2011-01-01

    The topic of this thesis is about moral decision-making, and the main objective of this study is to research the moral decision-making of Chinese business managers based on the analysis of data. The study adopts systematic literature of qualitative research method and is constructed by means of qualitative analysis of 64 data articles. The 64 data articles are the journals from the Database of Chinese Academic Journals, Journal of Business Ethics and other leading business journals from the y...

  11. Supporting management decisions with ex ante accounting information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Verdaasdonk, Peter

    2002-01-01

    This paper is about the relationship between management decisions and accounting information. Management decisions have consequences in different functional areas, departments, and different companies along the value chain. Accounting information regarding decisions aims to translate as many as

  12. Evaluating the Implications of Climate Phenomenon Indices in Supporting Reservoir Operation Using the Artificial Neural Network and Decision-Tree Methods: A Case Study on Trinity Lake in Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T.; Akbari Asanjan, A.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

    2016-12-01

    Reservoirs are fundamental human-built infrastructures that collect, store, and deliver fresh surface water in a timely manner for all kinds of purposes, including residential and industrial water supply, flood control, hydropower, and irrigation, etc. Efficient reservoir operation requires that policy makers and operators understand how reservoir inflows, available storage, and discharges are changing under different climatic conditions. Over the last decade, the uses of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI & DM) techniques in assisting reservoir management and seasonal forecasts have been increasing. Therefore, in this study, two distinct AI & DM methods, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF), are employed and compared with respect to their capabilities of predicting monthly reservoir inflow, managing storage, and scheduling reservoir releases. A case study on Trinity Lake in northern California is conducted using long-term (over 50 years) reservoir operation records and 17 known climate phenomenon indices, i.e. PDO and ENSO, etc., as predictors. Results show that (1) both ANN and RF are capable of providing reasonable monthly reservoir storage, inflow, and outflow prediction with satisfactory statistics, and (2) climate phenomenon indices are useful in assisting monthly or seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow and outflow. It is also found that reservoir storage has a consistent high autocorrelation effect, while inflow and outflow are more likely to be influenced by climate conditions. Using a Gini diversity index, RF method identifies that the reservoir discharges are associated with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and reservoir inflows are influenced by multiple climate phenomenon indices during different seasons. Furthermore, results also show that, during the winter season, reservoir discharges are controlled by the storage level for flood-control purposes, while, during the summer season, the flood-control operation is not as

  13. Future reservoir management under climate change for the Mississippi River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asnaashari, Ahmad; Gharabaghi, Bahram; McBean, Edward A.; Kunjikutty, Sobhalatha; Lehman, Paul; Wade, Winston

    2010-01-01

    This paper is part of an ongoing research project designed to evaluate the effect of climate change on reservoir operation policies in the Mississippi Valley Conservation Authority. The study used the results from a first paper, including projected daily temperature and precipitation, for future streamflow calculation. This paper presented the development, calibration and validation of a rainfall-runoff NAM model for the Mississippi River watershed. The calibrated Mike11/NAM model was fed with predicted climatic data to generate long term future streamflow in the basin. Forecast flows were run in a Mike 11/HD model to estimate the corresponding lake levels. The storages and flows at Shabomeka Lake, Mazinaw Lake and Marble Lake were simulated. The results showed that climate change is likely to have implications for reservoir operations in the Mississippi River watershed, which will include changed water level regimes due to modifications in the projected future streamflow hydrograph to meet desired lake levels.

  14. Decision problems in management of construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranko, E.

    2017-10-01

    In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

  15. G-REALM: A lake/reservoir monitoring tool for drought monitoring and water resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkett, C. M.; Ricko, M.; Beckley, B. D.; Yang, X.; Tetrault, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    G-REALM is a NASA/USDA funded operational program offering water-level products for lakes and reservoirs and these are currently derived from the NASA/CNES Topex/Jason series of satellite radar altimeters. The main stakeholder is the USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) though many other end-users utilize the products for a variety of interdisciplinary science and operational programs. The FAS utilize the products within their CropExplorer Decision Support System (DSS) to help assess irrigation potential, and to monitor both short-term (agricultural) and longer-term (hydrological) drought conditions. There is increasing demand for a more global monitoring service that in particular, captures the variations in the smallest (1 to 100km2) reservoirs and water holdings in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, water resources are critical to both agriculture and regional security. A recent G-REALM 10-day resolution product upgrade and expansion has allowed for more accurate lake level products to be released and for a greater number of water bodies to be monitored. The next program phase focuses on the exploration of the enhanced radar altimeter data sets from the Cryosat-2 and Sentinel-3 missions with their improved spatial resolution, and the expansion of the system to the monitoring of 1,000 water bodies across the globe. In addition, a new element, the monitoring of surface water levels in wetland zones, is also being introduced. This aims to satisfy research and stakeholder requirements with respect to programs examining the links between inland fisheries catch potential and declining water levels, and to those monitoring the delicate balance between water resources, agriculture, and fisheries management in arid basins.

  16. Nested algorithms for optimal reservoir operation and their embedding in a decision support platform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delipetrev, B.

    2016-01-01

    Reservoir operation is a multi-objective optimization problem traditionally solved with dynamic programming (DP) and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) algorithms. The thesis presents novel algorithms for optimal reservoir operation named nested DP (nDP), nested SDP (nSDP), nested reinforcement

  17. Towards an Improved Represenation of Reservoirs and Water Management in a Land Surface-Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yassin, F.; Anis, M. R.; Razavi, S.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Water management through reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation have significantly changed river flow regimes and basin-wide energy and water balance cycles. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of land surface-hydrology models not only for streamflow prediction but also for the estimation of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Despite recent research to improve the representation of water management in land surface models, there remains a need to develop improved modeling approaches that work in complex and highly regulated basins such as the 406,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). A particular challenge for regional and global application is a lack of local information on reservoir operational management. To this end, we implemented a reservoir operation, water abstraction, and irrigation algorithm in the MESH land surface-hydrology model and tested it over the SaskRB. MESH is Environment Canada's Land Surface-hydrology modeling system that couples Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with hydrological routing model. The implemented reservoir algorithm uses an inflow-outflow relationship that accounts for the physical characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., storage-area-elevation relationships) and includes simplified operational characteristics based on local information (e.g., monthly target volume and release under limited, normal, and flood storage zone). The irrigation algorithm uses the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration to estimate irrigation water demand. This irrigation demand is supplied from the neighboring reservoirs/diversion in the river system. We calibrated the model enabled with the new reservoir and irrigation modules in a multi-objective optimization setting. Results showed that the reservoir and irrigation modules significantly improved the MESH model performance in generating streamflow and evapotranspiration across the SaskRB and that this our approach provides

  18. 75 FR 40034 - Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-13

    ... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek...-managed public land on Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort Patrick Henry, South Holston, Watauga, and... Proposed Land Use Alternative) identified in the final environmental impact statement (FEIS). Under the...

  19. Reservoir compartmentalization and management strategies: Lessons learned in the Illinois basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grube, J.P.; Crockett, J.E.; Huff, B.G. [and others

    1997-08-01

    A research project jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy and the Illinois State Geological Survey focused on the Cypress and Aux Vases Formations (Mississippian), major clastic reservoirs in the Illinois Basin. Results from the research showed that understanding the nature and distribution of reservoir compartments, and using effective reservoir management strategies, can significantly improve recovery efficiencies from oil fields in this mature basin. Compartments can be most effectively drained where they are geologically well defined and reservoir management practices are coordinated through unified, compartment-wide, development programs. Our studies showed that the Cypress and Aux Vases reservoirs contain lateral and vertical permeability barriers forming compartments that range in size from isolated, interlaminated sandstone and shale beds to sandstone bodies tens of feet in thickness and more than a mile in length. Stacked or shingled, genetically similar sandstone bodies are commonly separated by thin impermeable intervals that can be difficult to distinguish on logs and can, therefore, cause correlation problems, even between wells drilled on spacing of less than ten acres. Lateral separation of sandstone bodies causes similar problems. Reservoir compartmentalization reduces primary and particularly secondary recovery by trapping pockets of by-passed or banked oil. Compartments can be detected by comparing recovery factors of genetically similar sandstone bodies within a field; using packers to separate commingled intervals and analyzing fluid recoveries and pressures; making detailed core-to-log calibrations that identify compartment boundaries; and analyzing pressure data from waterflood programs.

  20. Managing geological uncertainty in CO2-EOR reservoir assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welkenhuysen, Kris; Piessens, Kris

    2014-05-01

    Recently the European Parliament has agreed that an atlas for the storage potential of CO2 is of high importance to have a successful commercial introduction of CCS (CO2 capture and geological storage) technology in Europe. CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is often proposed as a promising business case for CCS, and likely has a high potential in the North Sea region. Traditional economic assessments for CO2-EOR largely neglect the geological reality of reservoir uncertainties because these are difficult to introduce realistically in such calculations. There is indeed a gap between the outcome of a reservoir simulation and the input values for e.g. cost-benefit evaluations, especially where it concerns uncertainty. The approach outlined here is to turn the procedure around, and to start from which geological data is typically (or minimally) requested for an economic assessment. Thereafter it is evaluated how this data can realistically be provided by geologists and reservoir engineers. For the storage of CO2 these parameters are total and yearly CO2 injection capacity, and containment or potential on leakage. Specifically for the EOR operation, two additional parameters can be defined: the EOR ratio, or the ratio of recovered oil over injected CO2, and the CO2 recycling ratio of CO2 that is reproduced after breakthrough at the production well. A critical but typically estimated parameter for CO2-EOR projects is the EOR ratio, taken in this brief outline as an example. The EOR ratio depends mainly on local geology (e.g. injection per well), field design (e.g. number of wells), and time. Costs related to engineering can be estimated fairly good, given some uncertainty range. The problem is usually to reliably estimate the geological parameters that define the EOR ratio. Reliable data is only available from (onshore) CO2-EOR projects in the US. Published studies for the North Sea generally refer to these data in a simplified form, without uncertainty ranges, and are

  1. Low flows and reservoir management for the Durance River basin (Southern France) in the 2050s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    . A model of water management similar to the tools used by Electricité De France was calibrated to simulate the behavior of the three reservoirs Serre-Ponçon, Castillon, Sainte-Croix on present-day conditions. This model simulates water releases from reservoir under constraints imposed by rule curves, ecological flows downstream to the dams and water levels in summer for recreational purposes. The results demonstrate the relatively good performance of this simplified model and its ability to represent the influence of reservoir operations on the natural hydrological river flow regime, the decision-making involved in water management and the interactions at regional scale. Four territorial socio-economic scenarios have been also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the area supplied with water from the Durance River basin. This presentation will focus on the specific tools developed within the project to simulate water management and water abstractions. The main conclusions related to the risk of water shortage in the 2050s and the level of satisfaction for each water use will be also discussed.

  2. Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Oil Reservoirs Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea

    expensive gradient computation by using high-order ESDIRK (Explicit Singly Diagonally Implicit Runge-Kutta) temporal integration methods and continuous adjoints. The high order integration scheme allows larger time steps and therefore faster solution times. We compare gradient computation by the continuous...... gradient-based optimization and the required gradients are computed by the adjoint method. We propose the use of efficient high order implicit time integration methods for the solution of the forward and the adjoint equations of the dynamical model. The Ensemble Kalman filter is used for data assimilation...... equivalent strategy is not justified for the particular case studied in this paper. The third contribution of this thesis is a mean-variance method for risk mitigation in production optimization of oil reservoirs. We introduce a return-risk bicriterion objective function for the profit-risk tradeoff...

  3. Contribution of systematic reviews to management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Carly N; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

    2013-10-01

    Systematic reviews comprehensively summarize evidence about the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We investigated the contribution to management decisions made by this growing body of literature. We identified 43 systematic reviews of conservation evidence, 23 of which drew some concrete conclusions relevant to management. Most reviews addressed conservation interventions relevant to policy decisions; only 35% considered practical on-the-ground management interventions. The majority of reviews covered only a small fraction of the geographic and taxonomic breadth they aimed to address (median = 13% of relevant countries and 16% of relevant taxa). The likelihood that reviews contained at least some implications for management tended to increase as geographic coverage increased and to decline as taxonomic breadth increased. These results suggest the breadth of a systematic review requires careful consideration. Reviews identified a mean of 312 relevant primary studies but excluded 88% of these because of deficiencies in design or a failure to meet other inclusion criteria. Reviews summarized on average 284 data sets and 112 years of research activity, yet the likelihood that their results had at least some implications for management did not increase as the amount of primary research summarized increased. In some cases, conclusions were elusive despite the inclusion of hundreds of data sets and years of cumulative research activity. Systematic reviews are an important part of the conservation decision making tool kit, although we believe the benefits of systematic reviews could be significantly enhanced by increasing the number of reviews focused on questions of direct relevance to on-the-ground managers; defining a more focused geographic and taxonomic breadth that better reflects available data; including a broader range of evidence types; and appraising the cost-effectiveness of interventions. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley

  4. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...... to these kinds of hybrid organizations, but it is easily adopted and tested for other private business models too. The findings and the conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk......Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models...

  5. Management of Water Quantity and Quality Based on Copula for a Tributary to Miyun Reservoir, Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zang, N.; Wang, X.; Liang, P.

    2017-12-01

    Due to the complex mutual influence between water quantity and water quality of river, it is difficult to reflect the actual characters of the tributaries to reservoir. In this study, the acceptable marginal probability distributions for water quantity and quality of reservoir inflow were calculated. A bivariate Archimedean copula was further applied to establish the joint distribution function of them. Then multiple combination scenarios of water quantity and water quality were designed to analyze their coexistence relationship and reservoir management strategies. Taking Bai river, an important tributary into the Miyun Reservoir, as a study case. The results showed that it is feasible to apply Frank copula function to describe the jointed distribution function of water quality and water quantity for Bai river. Furthermore, the monitoring of TP concentration needs to be strengthen in Bai river. This methodology can be extended to larger dimensions and is transferable to other reservoirs via establishment of models with relevant data for a particular area. Our findings help better analyzing the coexistence relationship and influence degree of the water quantity and quality of the tributary to reservoir for the purpose of water resources protection.

  6. Decision Support Systems in Forest Management: An Integrated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Decision making process - especially in natural resources management, encounters myriad of challenges to objective decisions, significant decision depends on amount of information and capability of decision makers to handle massive data. In forest management, these challenges such as lack of enough data and cost ...

  7. Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Müller

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Kessem–Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i recent conditions and (ii future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i rule curves with a high degree of freedom – this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

  8. Optimal Reoperation of Multi-Reservoirs for Integrated Watershed Management with Multiple Benefits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyi Xu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Constructing reservoirs can make more efficient use of water resources for human society. However, the negative impacts of these projects on the environment are often ignored. Optimal reoperation of reservoirs, which considers not only in socio-economic values but also environmental benefits, is increasingly important. A model of optimal reoperation of multi-reservoirs for integrated watershed management with multiple benefits was proposed to alleviate the conflict between water use and environmental deterioration. The social, economic, water quality and ecological benefits were respectively taken into account as the scheduling objectives and quantified according to economic models. River minimum ecological flows and reservoir water levels based on flood control were taken as key constraint conditions. Feasible search discrete differential dynamic programming (FS-DDDP was used to run the model. The proposed model was used in the upstream of the Nanpan River, to quantitatively evaluate the difference between optimal reoperation and routine operation. The results indicated that the reoperation could significantly increase the water quality benefit and have a minor effect on the benefits of power generation and irrigation under different hydrological years. The model can be readily adapted to other multi-reservoir systems for water resources management.

  9. Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ruben; Gebretsadik, Henok Y.; Schütze, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Recently, the Kessem-Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i) recent conditions and (ii) future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i) rule curves with a high degree of freedom - this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii) smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

  10. Learning to manage quality in a multiple reservoir system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The development of water policies based on integrated water management principles promotes the development of multistakeholder platforms to manage water resources at catchment level. This is the case of the Alto-Tietê watershed, the urban catchment encompassing the São Paulo metropolis in Brazil. The dynamic ...

  11. Decision support system for use in smart wells for the development of oil reservoirs; Sistema de apoio a decisao para uso de pocos inteligentes no desenvolvimento de reservatorios de petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Luciana Faletti [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica Celso Suckow da Fonseca (CEFET-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: faletti@ele.puc-rio.br; Pacheco, Marco Aurelio Cavalcanti; Vellasco, Marley Maria Bernardes Rebuzzi; Tupac Valdivia, Yvan Jesus; Lazo, Juan Guillermo [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC/Rio), RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: marco@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: marley@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: yvantv@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: juan@ele.puc-rio.br

    2008-06-15

    Reservoir management is an essential task aimed at the challenge of optimizing the exploration of petroliferous reservoirs. In response to such a challenge, the oil and gas industry has been developing new technologies, such as intelligent wells. These wells are intended to reduce the costs of the more commonplace restoring operations by controlling their technology. This work studies the development of intelligent fields and introduces a decision taking support system able to optimize, through evolutionary algorithms, the intelligent well technology control process considering the technical uncertainties: in valves and geological failures. Moreover, the system proposes to support decision taking, to use or not intelligent wells, given a reservoir ready to be explored or to receive expansion investments. The optimization seeks a strategy of pro-active control, in other words, act before the effect, seeking in the initial production times a configuration of valves capable of: delaying the arrival of the water cut of the production wells, accelerate the oil production or to improve the oil recovery. As a result, an operation that maximizes the NPV (Net present value). The model was tested in three reservoirs, the first being a synthetic reservoir, and the others with more realistic characteristics. (author)

  12. Reservoir Management using seasonal forecasts in Lake Kariba and Lake Kahora Bassa: Initial results and plans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal forecasting as a tool to improve on reservoir management in Zimbabwe is presented. The focus of the talk is on predicting rainfall extremes over the Lake Kariba catchments. The forecast systems to do the predictions and the levels of skill...

  13. ROLE OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING IN DECISIONS ON MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Khomutetskaya

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the introduction of management accounting in the work of organizations (enterprises that will improve the efficiency of administrative decisions will contribute to the flexibility and adaptability of the organization to changes in the external environment, increased productivity and efficient use of all resources of the organization.

  14. Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

    2012-01-01

    This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

  15. Modeling Alpine hydropower reservoirs management to study the water-energy nexus under change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Fumagalli, E.; Weber, E.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) were already observed over the last few years and produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system, Italy. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series.. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e.g. expansion of the electric vehicle sector, load

  16. Public involvement in radioactive waste management decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-04-01

    Current repository siting efforts focus on Yucca Mountain, Nevada, where DOE`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is conducting exploratory studies to determine if the site is suitable. The state of Nevada has resisted these efforts: it has denied permits, brought suit against DOE, and publicly denounced the federal government`s decision to study Yucca Mountain. The state`s opposition reflects public opinion in Nevada, and has considerably slowed DOE`s progress in studying the site. The Yucca Mountain controversy demonstrates the importance of understanding public attitudes and their potential influence as DOE develops a program to manage radioactive waste. The strength and nature of Nevada`s opposition -- its ability to thwart if not outright derail DOE`s activities -- indicate a need to develop alternative methods for making decisions that affect the public. This report analyzes public participation as a key component of this openness, one that provides a means of garnering acceptance of, or reducing public opposition to, DOE`s radioactive waste management activities, including facility siting and transportation. The first section, Public Perceptions: Attitudes, Trust, and Theory, reviews the risk-perception literature to identify how the public perceives the risks associated with radioactivity. DOE and the Public discusses DOE`s low level of credibility among the general public as the product, in part, of the department`s past actions. This section looks at the three components of the radioactive waste management program -- disposal, storage, and transportation -- and the different ways DOE has approached the problem of public confidence in each case. Midwestern Radioactive Waste Management Histories focuses on selected Midwestern facility-siting and transportation activities involving radioactive materials.

  17. Public involvement in radioactive waste management decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-04-01

    Current repository siting efforts focus on Yucca Mountain, Nevada, where DOE's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is conducting exploratory studies to determine if the site is suitable. The state of Nevada has resisted these efforts: it has denied permits, brought suit against DOE, and publicly denounced the federal government's decision to study Yucca Mountain. The state's opposition reflects public opinion in Nevada, and has considerably slowed DOE's progress in studying the site. The Yucca Mountain controversy demonstrates the importance of understanding public attitudes and their potential influence as DOE develops a program to manage radioactive waste. The strength and nature of Nevada's opposition -- its ability to thwart if not outright derail DOE's activities -- indicate a need to develop alternative methods for making decisions that affect the public. This report analyzes public participation as a key component of this openness, one that provides a means of garnering acceptance of, or reducing public opposition to, DOE's radioactive waste management activities, including facility siting and transportation. The first section, Public Perceptions: Attitudes, Trust, and Theory, reviews the risk-perception literature to identify how the public perceives the risks associated with radioactivity. DOE and the Public discusses DOE's low level of credibility among the general public as the product, in part, of the department's past actions. This section looks at the three components of the radioactive waste management program -- disposal, storage, and transportation -- and the different ways DOE has approached the problem of public confidence in each case. Midwestern Radioactive Waste Management Histories focuses on selected Midwestern facility-siting and transportation activities involving radioactive materials

  18. Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

    2016-01-01

    Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and

  19. Improving IT Portfolio Management Decision Confidence Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Hypervariate Display Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landmesser, John Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…

  20. Stakeholder engagement in dredged material management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Zachary A; Bates, Matthew E; Wood, Matthew D; Linkov, Igor

    2014-10-15

    Dredging and disposal issues often become controversial with local stakeholders because of their competing interests. These interests tend to manifest themselves in stakeholders holding onto entrenched positions, and deadlock can result without a methodology to move the stakeholder group past the status quo. However, these situations can be represented as multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria decision problems. In this paper, we describe a case study in which multi-criteria decision analysis was implemented in a multi-stakeholder setting in order to generate recommendations on dredged material placement for Long Island Sound's Dredged Material Management Plan. A working-group of representatives from various stakeholder organizations was formed and consulted to help prioritize sediment placement sites for each dredging center in the region by collaboratively building a multi-criteria decision model. The resulting model framed the problem as several alternatives, criteria, sub-criteria, and metrics relevant to stakeholder interests in the Long Island Sound region. An elicitation of values, represented as criteria weights, was then conducted. Results show that in general, stakeholders tended to agree that all criteria were at least somewhat important, and on average there was strong agreement on the order of preferences among the diverse groups of stakeholders. By developing the decision model iteratively with stakeholders as a group and soliciting their preferences, the process sought to increase stakeholder involvement at the front-end of the prioritization process and lead to increased knowledge and consensus regarding the importance of site-specific criteria. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Mandy L.; Juracek, Kyle E.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy

    2015-01-01

    average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

  2. Child-parent shared decision making about asthma management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnett, Victoria; Smith, Joanna; Ormandy, Paula

    2016-05-09

    Aim To explore and describe child-parent shared decision making for the management of childhood asthma. Methods A qualitative, descriptive, interview-based study was undertaken. Eight children and nine parents participated. The framework approach underpinned data analysis. Findings A dynamic model of the way children and parents transfer, shift and share asthma management decisions was uncovered. Asthma management decisions between children and parents were non-linear, with responsibility transferring from parent to child under different conditions. Children made a range of decisions about their asthma, often sharing decisions with their parents. However, during acute illness episodes, children often relied on parents to make decisions about their asthma. Conclusion Neither the child nor parent has complete autonomy over asthma management decisions. Decision making is a dynamic, shifting and shared process, dependent on contextual factors and child and parent decision preferences.

  3. Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Quality of Subalpine Reservoirs: Implications on Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marziali Laura

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reservoirs are characterized by accumulation of sediments where micropollutants may concentrate, with potential toxic effects on downstream river ecosystems. However, sediment management such as flushing is needed to maintain storage capacity. Climate change is expected to increase sediment loads, but potential effects on their quality are scarcely known. In this context, sediment contamination by trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn and organics (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PAHs, Polychlorinated Biphenyls PCBs and C > 12 hydrocarbons was analyzed in 20 reservoirs located in Italian Central Alps. A strong As and a moderate Cd, Hg and Pb enrichment was emphasized by Igeo, with potential ecotoxicological risk according to Probable Effect Concentration quotients. Sedimentation rate, granulometry, total organic carbon (TOC and altitude resulted as the main drivers governing pollutant concentrations in sediments. According to climate change models, expected increase of rainfall erosivity will enhance soil erosion and consequently the sediment flow to reservoirs, potentially increasing coarse grain fractions and thus potentially diluting pollutants. Conversely, increased weathering may enhance metal fluxes to reservoirs. Increased vegetation cover will potentially result in higher TOC concentrations, which may contrast contaminant bioavailability and thus toxicity. Our results may provide elements for a proper management of contaminated sediments in a climate change scenario aiming at preserving water quality and ecosystem functioning.

  4. Decision Support for Environmental Management of Industrial ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-hazardous solid materials from industrial processes, once regarded as waste and disposed in landfills, offer numerous environmental and economic advantages when put to beneficial uses (BUs). Proper management of these industrial non-hazardous secondary materials (INSM) requires estimates of their probable environmental impacts among disposal as well as BU options. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently approved new analytical methods (EPA Methods 1313–1316) to assess leachability of constituents of potential concern in these materials. These new methods are more realistic for many disposal and BU options than historical methods, such as the toxicity characteristic leaching protocol. Experimental data from these new methods are used to parameterize a chemical fate and transport (F&T) model to simulate long-term environmental releases from flue gas desulfurization gypsum (FGDG) when disposed of in an industrial landfill or beneficially used as an agricultural soil amendment. The F&T model is also coupled with optimization algorithms, the Beneficial Use Decision Support System (BUDSS), under development by EPA to enhance INSM management. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the methodologies and encourage similar applications to improve environmental management and BUs of INSM through F&T simulation coupled with optimization, using realistic model parameterization.

  5. A generic accounting model to support operations management decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verdaasdonk, P.J.A.; Wouters, M.J.F.

    2001-01-01

    Information systems are generally unable to generate information about the financial consequences of operations management decisions. This is because the procedures for determining the relevant accounting information for decision support are not formalised in ways that can be implemented in

  6. Development of transportation asset management decision support tools : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-09

    This study developed a web-based prototype decision support platform to demonstrate the benefits of transportation asset management in monitoring asset performance, supporting asset funding decisions, planning budget tradeoffs, and optimizing resourc...

  7. Local Water Management of Small Reservoirs: Lessons from Two Case Studies in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilmy Sally

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Burkina Faso is actively pursuing the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM in its development plans. Several policy and institutional mechanisms have been put in place, including the adoption of a national IWRM action plan (PAGIRE and the establishment so far of 30 local water management committees (Comités Locaux de l’Eau, or CLE. The stated purpose of the CLE is to take responsibility for managing water at sub-basin level. The two case studies discussed in this paper illustrate gaps between the policy objective of promoting IWRM on the one hand, and the realities associated with its practical on-the-ground implementation on the other. A significant adjustment that occurred in practice is the fact that the two CLE studied have been set up as entities focused on reservoir management, whereas it is envisioned that a CLE would constitute a platform for sub-basin management. This reflects a concern to minimise conflict and optimally manage the country’s primary water resource and illustrates the type of pragmatic actions that have to be taken to make IWRM a reality. It is also observed that the local water management committees have not been able to satisfactorily address questions regarding access to, and allocation of, water, which are crucial for the satisfactory functioning of the reservoirs. Water resources in the reservoirs appear to be controlled by the dominant user. In order to correct this trend, measures to build mutual trust and confidence among water users 'condemned' to work together to manage their common resource are suggested, foremost of which is the need to collect and share reliable data. Awareness of power relationships among water user groups and building on functioning, already existing formal or informal arrangements for water sharing are key determinants for successful implementation of the water reform process underway.

  8. Compliance Principles for Decision Management Solutions at the Dutch Government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Koen Smit; Dr.ir. Raymond Slot

    2016-01-01

    From the article: Abstract Since decision management is becoming an integrated part of business process management, more and more decision management implementations are realized. Therefore, organizations search for guidance to design such solutions. Principles are often applied to guide the design

  9. Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molino, Bruno; De Vincenzo, Annamaria; Ferone, Claudio; Messina, Francesco; Colangelo, Francesco; Cioffi, Raffaele

    2014-07-31

    Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. ) represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

  10. Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Molino

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

  11. Assessment of water management tools for the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, Michael; Altmannsberger, Charlotte

    2016-04-01

    Water management tools are essential to ensure the conservation of natural resources. The geothermal hot water reservoir below the village of Waiwera, on the Northern Island of New Zealand is used commercially since 1863. The continuous production of 50 °C hot geothermal water, to supply hotels and spas, has a negative impact on the reservoir. Until the year 1969 from all wells drilled the warm water flow was artesian. Due to overproduction the water needs to be pumped up nowadays. Further, within the years 1975 to 1976 the warm water seeps on the beach of Waiwera ran dry. In order to protect the reservoir and the historical and tourist site in the early 1980s a Water Management Plan was deployed. The "Auckland Regional Water Board" today "Auckland Regional Council" established guidelines to enable a sustainable management [1]. The management plan demands that the water level in the official and appropriate observation well of the council is 0.5 m above sea level throughout the year in average. Almost four decades of data (since 1978 until today) are now available [2]. The minimum water level was observed beginning of the 1980s with -1.25 m and the maximum recently with 1.6 m. The higher the production rates from the field, the lower the water level in the observation well. Highest abstraction rates reached almost 1,500 m3/day and lowest were just above 500 m3/day. Several models of varying complexity where used from purely data driven statistical to fully coupled process simulation models. In all cases the available data were used for calibration and the models were then applied for predictive purposes. We used the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index to quantify their predictive ability. The recommendation for the full implementation of the water management plan is the regular revision of an existing multivariate regression model which is based on the Theis well equation. Further, we suggest improving the underlying geological model of the process simulations to

  12. Merging paradigms: Decision Making, Management, and Cognitive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jens

    1996-01-01

    The paper discusses the trend in paradigms within decision research, drifting from concepts of decision making in terms of normative models of 'rational decision making, through behavioral models in terms of 'biases' - deviations from rational models, toward models of actual decision making...... behavior, such as the SRK concept, naturalistic decision making, and dynamic decision making.In this evolution, concepts such as decision making, management, and behavioral control merge and a concurrent change in concepts underlying design of systems aiming at control of behavior is visible, from...

  13. Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şükrü Ada

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

  14. Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabbe, Shon R.; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit

    2009-01-01

    A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

  15. Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2017-12-01

    The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for

  16. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

    2016-09-08

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2014, diversions of about 216,000 acre-feet from the Virgin River to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed the reservoir to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir stage and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2014, about 29,000 acre-feet of groundwater was withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, about 31,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir. From 2002 through 2014, about 127,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer.Water quality continued to be monitored at various wells in Sand Hollow during 2013–14 to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge as it moved through the aquifer. Changing geochemical conditions at monitoring wells WD 4 and WD 12 indicate rising groundwater levels and mobilization of vadose-zone salts, which could be a precursor to the arrival of reservoir recharge.

  17. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions in 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilweil, Victor M.; Marston, Thomas M.

    2011-01-01

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2009, total surface-water diversions of about 154,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed it to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir water-level altitude and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2009, a total of about 13,000 acre-feet of groundwater has been withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, a total of about 14,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir.From 2002 through 2009, about 86,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Water-quality sampling was conducted at various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge moving through the aquifer. Tracers of reservoir recharge include major and minor dissolved inorganic ions, tritium, dissolved organic carbon, chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and noble gases. By 2010, this recharge arrived at monitoring wells within about 1,000 feet of the reservoir.

  18. Simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change and management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Prats

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France in the medium term (2036-2065 and in the long term (2066-2095 using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect using synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%. To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i bottom outlet and present water level; ii bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024 °C·yr-1, but a

  19. Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation Chung-Lien Cheng, Wen-Ping Tsai, Fi-John Chang* Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Da-An District, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC.Corresponding author: Fi-John Chang (changfj@ntu.edu.tw) AbstractIn Taiwan, the population growth and economic development has led to considerable and increasing demands for natural water resources in the last decades. Under such condition, water shortage problems have frequently occurred in northern Taiwan in recent years such that water is usually transferred from irrigation sectors to public sectors during drought periods. Facing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the problems of increasing water shortages, it is a primary and critical issue to simultaneously satisfy multiple water uses through adequate reservoir operations for sustainable water resources management. Therefore, we intend to build an intelligent reservoir operation system for the assessment of agricultural water resources management strategy in response to food security during drought periods. This study first uses the grey system to forecast the agricultural water demand during February and April for assessing future agricultural water demands. In the second part, we build an intelligent water resources system by using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), an optimization tool, for searching the water allocation series based on different water demand scenarios created from the first part to optimize the water supply operation for different water sectors. The results can be a reference guide for adequate agricultural water resources management during drought periods. Keywords: Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II); Grey System; Optimization; Agricultural Water Resources Management.

  20. A Multi-criterial Decision Support System for Forest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Geneho Kim; Walter D. Potter; Mark J. Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Scott Thomasma; Deborah Bennett; Peter Kollasch

    1999-01-01

    We describe a research project that has as its goal development of a full-featured decision support system for managing forested land to satisfy multiple criteria represented as timber, wildlife, water, ecological, and wildlife objectives. The decision process proposed for what was originally conceived of as a Northeast Decision Model (NED) includes data acquisition,...

  1. Mercury bioaccumulation in the food web of Three Gorges Reservoir (China): Tempo-spatial patterns and effect of reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Jun [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Zhou, Qiong, E-mail: hainan@mail.hzau.edu.cn [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Yuan, Gailing; He, Xugang [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Xie, Ping [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430072 (China)

    2015-09-15

    Tempo-spatial patterns of mercury bioaccumulation and tropho-dynamics, and the potential for a reservoir effect were evaluated in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR, China) from 2011 to 2012, using total mercury concentrations (THg) and stable isotopes (δ{sup 13}C and δ{sup 15}N) of food web components (seston, aquatic invertebrates and fish). Hg concentrations in aquatic invertebrates and fish indicated a significant temporal trend associated with regular seasonal water-level manipulation. This includes water level lowering to allow for storage of water during the wet season (summer); a decrease of water levels from September to June providing a setting for flood storage. Hg concentrations in organisms were the highest after flooding. Higher Hg concentrations in fish were observed at the location farthest from the dam. Hg concentrations in water and sediment were correlated. Compared with the reservoirs of United States and Canada, TGR had lower trophic magnification factors (0.046–0.066), that are explained primarily by organic carbon concentrations in sediment, and the effect of “growth dilution”. Based on comparison before and after the impoundment of TGR, THg concentration in biota did not display an obvious long-term reservoir effect due to (i) short time since inundation, (ii) regular water discharge associated with water-level regulation, and/or (iii) low organic matter content in the sediment. - Highlights: • Hg concentrations were measured in biota of the main stem of 3 Gorges Reservoir. • Fish Hg concentration post-flood period > pre-flood period > flood period. • Fish Hg concentrations were the highest farthest from the dam. • THg in fish 2 years after inundation were the same as before impoundment. • Low biomagnification was ascribed to low DOC content in the sediment.

  2. Universal approximators for multi-objective direct policy search in water reservoir management problems: a comparative analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giuliani, Matteo; Mason, Emanuele; Castelletti, Andrea; Pianosi, Francesca

    2014-05-01

    The optimal operation of water resources systems is a wide and challenging problem due to non-linearities in the model and the objectives, high dimensional state-control space, and strong uncertainties in the hydroclimatic regimes. The application of classical optimization techniques (e.g., SDP, Q-learning, gradient descent-based algorithms) is strongly limited by the dimensionality of the system and by the presence of multiple, conflicting objectives. This study presents a novel approach which combines Direct Policy Search (DPS) and Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) to solve high-dimensional state and control space problems involving multiple objectives. DPS, also known as parameterization-simulation-optimization in the water resources literature, is a simulation-based approach where the reservoir operating policy is first parameterized within a given family of functions and, then, the parameters optimized with respect to the objectives of the management problem. The selection of a suitable class of functions to which the operating policy belong to is a key step, as it might restrict the search for the optimal policy to a subspace of the decision space that does not include the optimal solution. In the water reservoir literature, a number of classes have been proposed. However, many of these rules are based largely on empirical or experimental successes and they were designed mostly via simulation and for single-purpose reservoirs. In a multi-objective context similar rules can not easily inferred from the experience and the use of universal function approximators is generally preferred. In this work, we comparatively analyze two among the most common universal approximators: artificial neural networks (ANN) and radial basis functions (RBF) under different problem settings to estimate their scalability and flexibility in dealing with more and more complex problems. The multi-purpose HoaBinh water reservoir in Vietnam, accounting for hydropower

  3. Contribution of Systematic Reviews to Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    COOK, CARLY N; POSSINGHAM, HUGH P; FULLER, RICHARD A

    2014-01-01

    Systematic reviews comprehensively summarize evidence about the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We investigated the contribution to management decisions made by this growing body of literature. We identified 43 systematic reviews of conservation evidence, 23 of which drew some concrete conclusions relevant to management. Most reviews addressed conservation interventions relevant to policy decisions; only 35% considered practical on-the-ground management interventions. The majority of reviews covered only a small fraction of the geographic and taxonomic breadth they aimed to address (median = 13% of relevant countries and 16% of relevant taxa). The likelihood that reviews contained at least some implications for management tended to increase as geographic coverage increased and to decline as taxonomic breadth increased. These results suggest the breadth of a systematic review requires careful consideration. Reviews identified a mean of 312 relevant primary studies but excluded 88% of these because of deficiencies in design or a failure to meet other inclusion criteria. Reviews summarized on average 284 data sets and 112 years of research activity, yet the likelihood that their results had at least some implications for management did not increase as the amount of primary research summarized increased. In some cases, conclusions were elusive despite the inclusion of hundreds of data sets and years of cumulative research activity. Systematic reviews are an important part of the conservation decision making tool kit, although we believe the benefits of systematic reviews could be significantly enhanced by increasing the number of reviews focused on questions of direct relevance to on-the-ground managers; defining a more focused geographic and taxonomic breadth that better reflects available data; including a broader range of evidence types; and appraising the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Contribuciones de las Revisiones Sistemáticas a las

  4. Decision support tools for advanced energy management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marik, Karel; Schindler, Zdenek; Stluka, Petr

    2008-01-01

    Rising fuel costs boost energy prices, which is a driving force for improving efficiency of operation of any energy generation facility. This paper focuses on enhancing the operation of distributed integrated energy systems (IES), system that bring together all forms of cooling, heating and power (CCHP) technologies. Described methodology can be applied in power generation and district heating companies, as well as in small-scale systems that supply multiple types of utilities to consumers in industrial, commercial, residential and governmental spheres. Dispatching of such system in an optimal way needs to assess large number of production and purchasing schemes in conditions of continually changing market and variable utility demands influenced by many external factors, very often by weather conditions. The paper describes a combination of forecasting and optimization methods that supports effective decisions in IES system management. The forecaster generates the future most probable utility demand several hours or days ahead, derived from the past energy consumer behaviour. The optimizer generates economically most efficient operating schedule for the IES system that matches these forecasted energy demands and respects expected purchased energy prices. (author)

  5. COMMAND-AND-CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING,

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reports that the development of command-and-con trol systems in support of decision making and action taking has been accomplished by military...methods applicable to management systems. Concludes that the command-and-control type system for top management decision making is a man-machine system having as its core an on going, dynamic operation. (Author)

  6. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions in 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

    2013-01-01

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2011, surface-water diversions of about 199,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed the reservoir to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir altitude and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2011, a total of about 19,000 acre-feet of groundwater was withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, a total of about 21,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir. From 2002 through 2011, about 106,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Water quality was sampled at various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge as it moved through the aquifer. Tracers of reservoir recharge include major and minor dissolved inorganic ions, tritium, dissolved organic carbon, chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and noble gases. By 2012, this recharge arrived at four monitoring wells located within about 1,000 feet of the reservoir. Changing geochemical conditions at five other monitoring wells could indicate other processes, such as changing groundwater levels and mobilization of vadose-zone salts, rather than arrival of reservoir recharge.

  7. Real-time management of a multipurpose water reservoir with a heteroscedastic inflow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

    2009-10-01

    Stochastic dynamic programming has been extensively used as a method for designing optimal regulation policies for water reservoirs. However, the potential of this method is dramatically reduced by its computational burden, which often forces to introduce strong approximations in the model of the system, especially in the description of the reservoir inflow. In this paper, an approach to partially remedy this problem is proposed and applied to a real world case study. It foresees solving the management problem on-line, using a reduced model of the system and the inflow forecast provided by a dynamic model. By doing so, all the hydrometeorological information that is available in real-time is fully exploited. The model here proposed for the inflow forecasting is a nonlinear, heteroscedastic model that provides both the expected value and the standard deviation of the inflow through dynamic relations. The effectiveness of such model for the purpose of the reservoir regulation is evaluated through simulation and comparison with the results provided by conventional homoscedastic inflow models.

  8. Multi-objective, multiple participant decision support for water management in the Andarax catchment, Almeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Cauwenbergh, N.; Pinte, D.; Tilmant, A.; Frances, I.; Pulido-Bosch, A.; Vanclooster, M.

    2008-04-01

    Water management in the Andarax river basin (Almeria, Spain) is a multi-objective, multi-participant, long-term decision-making problem that faces several challenges. Adequate water allocation needs informed decisions to meet increasing socio-economic demands while respecting the environmental integrity of this basin. Key players in the Andarax water sector include the municipality of Almeria, the irrigators involved in the intensive greenhouse agricultural sector, and booming second residences. A decision support system (DSS) is developed to rank different sustainable planning and management alternatives according to their socio-economic and environmental performance. The DSS is intimately linked to sustainability indicators and is designed through a public participation process. Indicators are linked to criteria reflecting stakeholders concerns in the 2005 field survey, such as fulfilling water demand, water price, technical and economical efficiency, social and environmental impacts. Indicators can be partly quantified after simulating the operation of the groundwater reservoir over a 20-year planning period and partly through a parallel expert evaluation process. To predict the impact of future water demand in the catchment, several development scenarios are designed to be evaluated in the DSS. The successive multi-criteria analysis of the performance indicators permits the ranking of the different management alternatives according to the multiple objectives formulated by the different sectors/participants. This allows more informed and transparent decision-making processes for the Andarax river basin, recognizing both the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of water resources management.

  9. Group decision-making techniques for natural resource management applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan, Beth A.K.; Armour, Carl L.

    1992-01-01

    This report is an introduction to decision analysis and problem-solving techniques for professionals in natural resource management. Although these managers are often called upon to make complex decisions, their training in the natural sciences seldom provides exposure to the decision-making tools developed in management science. Our purpose is to being to fill this gap. We present a general analysis of the pitfalls of group problem solving, and suggestions for improved interactions followed by the specific techniques. Selected techniques are illustrated. The material is easy to understand and apply without previous training or excessive study and is applicable to natural resource management issues.

  10. Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

    2014-09-01

    Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

  11. Game theory and fuzzy programming approaches for bi-objective optimization of reservoir watershed management: a case study in Namazgah reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Üçler, N; Engin, G Onkal; Köçken, H G; Öncel, M S

    2015-05-01

    In this study, game theory and fuzzy programming approaches were used to balance economic and environmental impacts in the Namazgah reservoir, Turkey. The main goals identified were to maximize economic benefits of land use and to protect water quality of reservoir and land resources. Total phosphorous load (kg ha(-1) year(-1)) and economic income (USD ha(-1) year(-1)) from land use were determined as environmental value and economic value, respectively. The surface area of existing land use types, which are grouped under 10 headings according to the investigations on the watershed area, and the constraint values for the watershed were calculated using aerial photos, master plans, and basin slope map. The results of fuzzy programming approach were found to be very close to the results of the game theory model. It was concluded that the amount of fertilizer used in the current situation presents a danger to the reservoir and, therefore, unnecessary fertilizer use should be prevented. Additionally, nuts, fruit, and vegetable cultivation, instead of wheat and corn cultivation, was found to be more suitable due to their high economic income and low total phosphorus (TP) load. Apart from agricultural activities, livestock farming should also be considered in the area as a second source of income. It is believed that the results obtained in this study will help decision makers to identify possible problems of the watershed.

  12. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byron K Williams

    Full Text Available Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both. There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and

  13. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

  14. THE METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Solopenko

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The necessity of economic ground of administrative decisions related to the operation, staff, financial, investment, information & telecommunication, innovative, marketing and international economic activities of an aviation enterprise is determined foe such an enterprise, and the procedure of economic substantiation of administrative decisions with use of economico-mathematical modelling in automated control system (ACS for an aviation enterprise is implemented.

  15. Decisions an engineering and management perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Gaynor, G

    2015-01-01

    This book considers what it takes to convert the macro decision into a positive outcome; to resolve the gap that exists between the macro and subsidiary decisions; to understand why so many decisions fail to meet expectations; to direct the mindset of the engineering community to focus on its relation to other organizational units; to perform diligently the up-front work required to meet objectives; to stop squandering valuable talent and resources; to urge engineers and other discipline professionals to take a more business-oriented approach in participating in the organization's decision-making process; lastly, to not only recognize the importance of and the role of communication in all decision-making processes, but to initiate appropriate communication processes.

  16. Effective Approach to Elevate the Intelligence of Management Decision System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨保安; 朱明; 唐志杰; 陈思

    2003-01-01

    Based on the sticking point of the low intelligence of the existing management decision system,this paper puts forward the idea of enriching and refining the knowledge of the system and endowing it with the ability to learn by means of adopting three types of heterogeneous knowledge representation and knowledge management measures.At length,this paper outlines the basic framework of an intelligence system for the sake of management decision problem.

  17. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

    2012-01-01

    Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

  18. Linkage of management decision to shareholder's value: EVA concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrikant Krupasindhu Panigrahi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the author investigated the influence of management decisions like capital structure, dividend policies, remunerations, credit policy decisions and investment decisions on shareholder wealth maximization. To achieve the objective, portfolio theory, capital asset pricing model and modern financial theory providing evidence on the linkage between management decisions to shareholder’s value. Shareholders are only concerned about the value of shares of the company and the amount of return in the form of dividend paid. Thus in order to meet the demands of the shareholders of the company, managers needs to increase their abilities and skills to overcome the organizational goals. Thus the main goal of this paper is to discuss on the role of management decisions towards increasing shareholder’s wealth and meet organizational goals.

  19. Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

  20. Influence of portofolio management in decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rolney Baptestone

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to demonstrate how portfolio management influences the decision-making process in the projects of a financial organization. And to achieve this goal was used the single case study method. In order to reach this goal, the study began by means of bibliometric research on the subject of portfolio management and subsequent bibliographic research on the theme, decision making. Next, the relationships between portfolio management and decision making were studied. The results of the data collected confirmed the relationship between "the use of the project identification process in portfolio management to influence decision making" in order to add value to the business. It is also possible to demonstrate moderately that "the use of criteria for project selection influences the consequences of decision making", helping in the strategic management of the organization. One of the academic contributions was to note a migration of the portfolio management process, such as a tool that only controls the projects that will compose the portfolio of an organization, for a process that aims at a direct alignment with the strategic management of the organization. Regarding the practical implications, it was verified the importance of portfolio analysis for decision making, to the detriment of the evaluation of only one project. Taking into account the profitability and the return on investment of the projects, as the most important aspects for a decision making.

  1. Visualising Pareto-optimal trade-offs helps move beyond monetary-only criteria for water management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

    2014-05-01

    Water related eco-system services are important to the livelihoods of the poorest sectors of society in developing countries. Degradation or loss of these services can increase the vulnerability of people decreasing their capacity to support themselves. New approaches to help guide water resources management decisions are needed which account for the non-market value of ecosystem goods and services. In case studies from Brazil and Kenya we demonstrate the capability of many objective Pareto-optimal trade-off analysis to help decision makers balance economic and non-market benefits from the management of existing multi-reservoir systems. A multi-criteria search algorithm is coupled to a water resources management simulator of each basin to generate a set of Pareto-approximate trade-offs representing the best case management decisions. In both cases, volume dependent reservoir release rules are the management decisions being optimised. In the Kenyan case we further assess the impacts of proposed irrigation investments, and how the possibility of new investments impacts the system's trade-offs. During the multi-criteria search (optimisation), performance of different sets of management decisions (policies) is assessed against case-specific objective functions representing provision of water supply and irrigation, hydropower generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Results are visualised as trade-off surfaces to help decision makers understand the impacts of different policies on a broad range of stakeholders and to assist in decision-making. These case studies show how the approach can reveal unexpected opportunities for win-win solutions, and quantify the trade-offs between investing to increase agricultural revenue and negative impacts on protected ecosystems which support rural livelihoods.

  2. A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

    2017-01-01

    Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

  3. SWOT data assimilation for operational reservoir management on the upper Niger River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munier, S.; Polebistki, A.; Brown, C.; Belaud, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-01-01

    The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will provide two-dimensional maps of water elevation for rivers with width greater than 100 m globally. We describe a modeling framework and an automatic control algorithm that prescribe optimal releases from the Selingue dam in the Upper Niger River Basin, with the objective of understanding how SWOT data might be used to the benefit of operational water management. The modeling framework was used in a twin experiment to simulate the "true" system state and an ensemble of corrupted model states. Virtual SWOT observations of reservoir and river levels were assimilated into the model with a repeat cycle of 21 days. The updated state was used to initialize a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm that computed the optimal reservoir release that meets a minimum flow requirement 300 km downstream of the dam. The data assimilation results indicate that the model updates had a positive effect on estimates of both water level and discharge. The "persistence," which describes the duration of the assimilation effect, was clearly improved (greater than 21 days) by integrating a smoother into the assimilation procedure. We compared performances of the MPC with SWOT data assimilation to an open-loop MPC simulation. Results show that the data assimilation resulted in substantial improvements in the performances of the Selingue dam management with a greater ability to meet environmental requirements (the number of days the target is missed falls to zero) and a minimum volume of water released from the dam.

  4. Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

    2011-06-01

    Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

  5. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  6. IT Portfolio Management: A Holistic Approach to Outsourcing Decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Ho, Luke; ATKINS, Anthony

    2009-01-01

    This chapter provides an introduction to the advent of Information Technology Outsourcing (ITO) and its impact on portfolio management in modern day decision-making. Specifically, it outlines the use of the Application Portfolio Matrix (APM) by companies in formulating their strategic IT direction and why such techniques may be unsuitable for outsourcing decisions, which are inherently complex and multi-faceted in nature. Consequently, there is a need for alternative decision support tools to...

  7. Pricing, Variety, and Inventory Decisions in Retail Operations Management

    OpenAIRE

    Maddah, Bacel

    2005-01-01

    This dissertation is concerned with decision making in retail operations management. Specifically, we focus on pricing, variety, and inventory decisions, which are at the interface of the marketing and operations functions of a retail firm. We consider two problems that relate to two major types of retail goods. First, we study joint pricing, variety, and inventory decisions for a set of substitutable" items that serve the same need for the consumer (commonly referred to as a "retailer's ...

  8. Reservoir fisheries of Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, S.S. De.

    1990-01-01

    At a workshop on reservoir fisheries research, papers were presented on the limnology of reservoirs, the changes that follow impoundment, fisheries management and modelling, and fish culture techniques. Separate abstracts have been prepared for three papers from this workshop

  9. Decision management - projects subject to uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.E. Paterson

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The human mind is normally unable to grasp more than five to nine aspects relating to the same decision circumstances simultaneously. It has been demonstrated that only between four and eight variables significantly affect return on engineering projects (at the 90% level irrespective of scale. The most powerful means of isolating these significant variables is by computer simulation. This is demonstrated through the application of the interactive CASPAR programme to a simulated mining project. The significant variables are separated into controllable, influence able and uncontrollable categories for decision and control purposes since the nature of the speculative risk differs. The managerial treatment of each category is discussed.

  10. The Importance of Investment Decisions in Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cosmina Mădălina Pop

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available The financing decision alongside with investment decision represents the core of financial management. The paper presents the main steps in realizing investment projects, the option criteria used in pre-investment analysis, the techniques of financing the investments project, but also the methods of evaluation applied in selecting the most suitable project, accordingly with company’s developlment strategy and policy.

  11. Influence of Culture on the Process of Managing Decisions Adoption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin-Lucian Isac

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Different cultural environment requires a corresponding managerial environment. The process of managing decisions adoption is influenced by the values, attitudes, beliefs and behaviors of the employees.

  12. Management Information, Decision Sciences, and Financial Economics : a connection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2018-01-01

    markdownabstractThe paper provides a brief review of the connecting literature in management information, decision sciences, and financial economics, and discusses some research that is related to the three cognate disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent

  13. Benefit cost models to support pavement management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    A critical role of pavement management is to provide decision makers with estimates of the required budget level to achieve specific steady-state network conditions, and to recommend the best allocation of available budget among competing needs for m...

  14. Creative Accounting and Impact on Management Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Sunday O. Effiok; Okon E. Eton

    2012-01-01

    The study was conducted to appraise the impact of creative accounting on management decisions of selected companies listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. With the background, the main objective of the study includes the examination of the extent to which macro-manipulation of financial statement affects management decisions; to examine the extent to which macro-manipulation of financial statement affects share price performance; and to determine the impact of misreported assets and liabiliti...

  15. Decision Management : The Dowsing Rod of Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Koen Smit

    2015-01-01

    In this article, a classification scheme is presented which can be used to categorize the possible modifications with regard to information systems that execute decisions. Concerning these modifications, a distinction is made between the effort of the modification for the internal organization and

  16. Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turcotte, R.; Fortin, L.G.; Pugin, S.; Cyr, J.F.; Picard, F.; Poirier, C.; Lacombe, P.

    2004-01-01

    Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs

  17. Application of decision science to resilience management in Jamaica Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Mitchell; Fuller, Angela K.; Johnson, Fred A.; Hare, M. P.; Stedman, Richard C.; Sanderson, E.W.; Solecki, W. D.; Waldman, J.R.; Paris, A. S.

    2016-01-01

    This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.

  18. Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick; Jakaboski, Blake Elaine; Normann, Randy Allen; Jennings, Jim (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Gilbert, Bob (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Weiss, Chester Joseph; Lorenz, John Clay; Elbring, Gregory Jay; Wheeler, Mary Fanett (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Thomas, Sunil G. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Rightley, Michael J.; Rodriguez, Adolfo (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Klie, Hector (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Banchs, Rafael (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Nunez, Emilio J. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Jablonowski, Chris (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX)

    2006-11-01

    The project objective was to detail better ways to assess and exploit intelligent oil and gas field information through improved modeling, sensor technology, and process control to increase ultimate recovery of domestic hydrocarbons. To meet this objective we investigated the use of permanent downhole sensors systems (Smart Wells) whose data is fed real-time into computational reservoir models that are integrated with optimized production control systems. The project utilized a three-pronged approach (1) a value of information analysis to address the economic advantages, (2) reservoir simulation modeling and control optimization to prove the capability, and (3) evaluation of new generation sensor packaging to survive the borehole environment for long periods of time. The Value of Information (VOI) decision tree method was developed and used to assess the economic advantage of using the proposed technology; the VOI demonstrated the increased subsurface resolution through additional sensor data. Our findings show that the VOI studies are a practical means of ascertaining the value associated with a technology, in this case application of sensors to production. The procedure acknowledges the uncertainty in predictions but nevertheless assigns monetary value to the predictions. The best aspect of the procedure is that it builds consensus within interdisciplinary teams The reservoir simulation and modeling aspect of the project was developed to show the capability of exploiting sensor information both for reservoir characterization and to optimize control of the production system. Our findings indicate history matching is improved as more information is added to the objective function, clearly indicating that sensor information can help in reducing the uncertainty associated with reservoir characterization. Additional findings and approaches used are described in detail within the report. The next generation sensors aspect of the project evaluated sensors and packaging

  19. A framework for assessing hydrogen management strategies involving multiple decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.D.; Suh, K.Y.; Park, G.C.; Jae, M.

    2000-01-01

    An accident management framework consisting of multiple and sequential decisions is developed and applied to a hydrogen control strategy for a reference plant. The compact influence diagrams including multiple decisions are constructed and evaluated with MAAP4 calculations. Each decision variable, represented by a node in the influence diagrams, has an uncertainty distribution. Using the values from the IPE (Individual Plant Examinations) report for the reference plant (UCN 3 and 4), the hydrogen control and accident management strategies are assessed. In this paper, a problem with two decisions is modeled for a simple illustration of the process involved. One decision is whether or not to actuate igniters at the time of core uncovery. Another decision is whether or not to turn on the containment sprays. We chose a small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) sequence, which was one of the dominant accident sequences in the reference plant. The framework involves the modeling of the decision problem by using decision-making tools, data analysis, and the MAAP4 calculations. It is shown that the proposed framework with a new measure for assessing hydrogen control is flexible enough to be applied to various accident management strategies. (author)

  20. Risk Management and Insurance Decisions under Ambiguity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

    I study the impact of ambiguity on insurance decisions and the optimality of insurance contracts. My tractable approach allows me to study the interaction between risk and ambiguity attitudes. When insurance decisions are made independently of other assets, for a given increase in wealth, both risk...... portfolio theory that assumes Subjective Expected Utility theory; however, it provides hints to a possible solution of the under-diversification puzzle of households. I also identify conditions under which more risk or ambiguity aversion decreases the demand for coinsurance. Additionally, I show...... a counterexample to a classical result in insurance economics where an insurance contract with straight deductible is dominated by a coinsurance contract. Finally, I find that a modified Borch rule characterizes the optimal insurance contract with bilateral risk and ambiguity attitudes and heterogeneity in beliefs....

  1. Organising evidence for environmental management decisions: a '4S' hierarchy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicks, Lynn V; Walsh, Jessica C; Sutherland, William J

    2014-11-01

    Making decisions informed by the best-available science is an objective for many organisations managing the environment or natural resources. Yet, available science is still not widely used in environmental policy and practice. We describe a '4S' hierarchy for organising relevant science to inform decisions. This hierarchy has already revolutionised clinical practice. It is beginning to emerge for environmental management, although all four levels need substantial development before environmental decision-makers can reliably and efficiently find the evidence they need. We expose common bypass routes that currently lead to poor or biased representation of scientific knowledge. We argue that the least developed level of the hierarchy is that closest to decision-makers, placing synthesised scientific knowledge into environmental decision support systems. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  2. Numerical simulation of groundwater movement and managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Hurricane Bench area, Washington County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

    2012-01-01

    The Hurricane Bench area of Washington County, Utah, is a 70 square-mile area extending south from the Virgin River and encompassing Sand Hollow basin. Sand Hollow Reservoir, located on Hurricane Bench, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as a managed aquifer recharge project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. The reservoir is situated on a thick sequence of the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. Total recharge to the underlying Navajo aquifer from the reservoir was about 86,000 acre-feet from 2002 to 2009. Natural recharge as infiltration of precipitation was approximately 2,100 acre-feet per year for the same period. Discharge occurs as seepage to the Virgin River, municipal and irrigation well withdrawals, and seepage to drains at the base of reservoir dams. Within the Hurricane Bench area, unconfined groundwater-flow conditions generally exist throughout the Navajo Sandstone. Navajo Sandstone hydraulic-conductivity values from regional aquifer testing range from 0.8 to 32 feet per day. The large variability in hydraulic conductivity is attributed to bedrock fractures that trend north-northeast across the study area.A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate groundwater movement in the Hurricane Bench area and to simulate the movement of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir through the groundwater system. The model was calibrated to combined steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1975. The transient-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1976 to 2009. Areally, the model grid was 98 rows by 76 columns with a variable cell size ranging from about 1.5 to 25 acres. Smaller cells were used to represent the reservoir to accurately simulate the reservoir bathymetry and nearby monitoring wells; larger

  3. Decision and game theory in management with intuitionistic fuzzy sets

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Deng-Feng

    2014-01-01

    The focus of this book is on establishing theories and methods of both decision and game analysis in management using intuitionistic fuzzy sets. It proposes a series of innovative theories, models and methods such as the representation theorem and extension principle of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, ranking methods of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, non-linear and linear programming methods for intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making and (interval-valued) intuitionistic fuzzy matrix games. These theories and methods form the theory system of intuitionistic fuzzy decision making and games, which is not only remarkably different from those of the traditional, Bayes and/or fuzzy decision theory but can also provide an effective and efficient tool for solving complex management problems. Since there is a certain degree of inherent hesitancy in real-life management, which cannot always be described by the traditional mathematical methods and/or fuzzy set theory, this book offers an effective approach to us...

  4. Decision Aids for Multiple-Decision Disease Management as Affected by Weather Input Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many disease management decision support systems (DSS) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and manage...

  5. Operational Precipitation prediction in Support of Real-Time Flash Flood Prediction and Reservoir Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, K. P.

    2006-05-01

    The presentation will outline the implementation and performance evaluation of a number of national and international projects pertaining to operational precipitation estimation and prediction in the context of hydrologic warning systems and reservoir management support. In all cases, uncertainty measures of the estimates and predictions are an integral part of the precipitation models. Outstanding research issues whose resolution is likely to lead to improvements in the operational environment are presented. The presentation draws from the experience of the Hydrologic Research Center (http://www.hrc-lab.org) prototype implementation projects at the Panama Canal, Central America, Northern California, and South-Central US. References: Carpenter, T.M, and K.P. Georgakakos, "Discretization Scale Dependencies of the Ensemble Flow Range versus Catchment Area Relationship in Distributed Hydrologic Modeling," Journal of Hydrology, 2006, in press. Carpenter, T.M., and K.P. Georgakakos, "Impacts of Parametric and Radar Rainfall Uncertainty on the Ensemble Streamflow Simulations of a Distributed Hydrologic Model," Journal of Hydrology, 298, 202-221, 2004. Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.E., Carpenter, T.M., Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, "Integrating Climate- Hydrology Forecasts and Multi-Objective Reservoir Management in Northern California," EOS, 86(12), 122,127, 2005. Georgakakos, K.P., and J.A. Sperfslage, "Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed," in The Rio Chagres: A Multidisciplinary Profile of a Tropical Watershed, R.S. Harmon, ed., Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, Chapter 16, 323-334, 2005. Georgakakos, K. P., "Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance," Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.05.009, 2005.

  6. Impact of sediments resuspension on metal solubilization and water quality during recurrent reservoir sluicing management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frémion, Franck; Courtin-Nomade, Alexandra [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Bordas, François, E-mail: francois.bordas@unilim.fr [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Lenain, Jean-François [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Jugé, Philippe [CETU – ELMIS Ingénieries, Université François Rabelais, , 60 Rue du Plat d' Étain, 37000 Tours (France); Kestens, Tim [EDF – DPIH, Unité de Production Centre, 19 bis avenue de la Révolution, BP 406, 87012 Limoges Cedex (France); Mourier, Brice [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France)

    2016-08-15

    In dam contexts, sluicing operations can be performed to reestablish sediments continuity, as proposed by the EU Water Framework Directive, as well as to preserve the reservoirs' water storage capacity. Such management permits the rapid release of high quantities of reservoir sediments through the opening of dam bottom valves. This work aims to study the impact of such operation on the evolution of environmental physicochemical conditions notably changes in dissolved metallic elements concentrations (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) through field and laboratory investigations. Results were interpreted in terms of concentrations and fluxes, and compared with data collected on an annual basis regarding both suspended matter and metallic elements. The release of high quantities of sediments (4,500 tons dry weight in 24 h), with concentrations representing up to 300 times the inter-annual mean suspended sediments discharge, significantly modified water parameters, notably solid/liquid (S/L) ratio, pH and redox conditions. Despite the fact that they are mainly trapped in stable phases, a clear increase of the solubilized metals content was measured, representing up to 60 times the maximum values of current exploitation. This solubilization is related to desorption phenomena from sediments through changes in chemical equilibriums as highlighted by laboratory characterizations and experiments. These chemical modifications are mainly attributed to S/L ratio variations. Indeed, the low S/L ratios (≤ 1.3 g·L{sup −1}) measured in situ are typically the ones for which metals solubilization is the highest, as shown by laboratory experiments. Additional thermodynamic modeling highlighted that the decrease in pH measured during the operation favors the release of the free forms of metallic elements (Al and Cu), and decreases the OM complexation influence. These changes, either in term of physical conditions or speciation, increasing metals long term

  7. Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

    2004-01-01

    Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into

  8. Game Methods of Collective Decision Making in Management Consulting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prigozhin, Arkadii Il'ich

    1991-01-01

    Explores former Soviet management consultants' increased use of social psychological game methods. Identifies such games as means of involving segments of client organizations in accomplishing shared tasks. Proposes a "practical" business game, designed to shape the process of formulating new management decisions at a radical level.…

  9. Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svenja Caspers

    Full Text Available Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

  10. Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

    2012-01-01

    Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

  11. Decision-making methodology for management of hazardous waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philbin, J.S.; Cranwell, R.M.

    1988-01-01

    A decision-making methodology is presented that combines systems and risk analysis techniques to evaluate hazardous waste management practices associated with DOE weapon production operations. The methodology provides a systematic approach to examining waste generation and waste handling practices in addition to the more visible disposal practices. Release-exposure scenarios for hazardous waste operations are identified and operational risk is determined. Comparisons may be made between existing and alternative waste management practices (and processes) on the basis of overall risk, cost and compliance with regulations. Managers can use this methodology to make and defend resource allocation decisions and to prioritize research needs

  12. Guidance Tools for Use in Nuclear Material Management Decisions Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, G. V.; Baker, D. J.; Sorenson, K. B.; Boeke, S. G.

    2002-02-26

    This paper describes the results of Recommendation 14 of the Integrated Nuclear Materials Management Plan (INMMP) which was the product of a management initiative at the highest levels of the Department of Energy responding to a congressional directive to accelerate the work of achieving integration and cutting long-term costs associated with the management of nuclear materials, with the principal focus on excess materials. The INMMP provided direction to ''Develop policy-level decision support tools to support long-term planning and decision making.'' To accomplish this goal a team from the Savannah River Site, Sandia National Laboratories, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), and the U.S. Department of Energy experienced in the decision-making process developed a Guidebook to Decision-Making Methods. The goal of the team organized to implement Recommendation 14 was to instill transparency, consistency, rigor, and discipline in the DOE decision process. The guidebook introduces a process and a selection of proven methods for disciplined decision-making so that the results are clearer, more transparent, and easier for reviewers to understand and accept. It was written to set a standard for a consistent decision process.

  13. Bayesian inference and decision theory - A framework for decision making in natural resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.; Johnson, F.A.

    2003-01-01

    Bayesian inference and decision theory may be used in the solution of relatively complex problems of natural resource management, owing to recent advances in statistical theory and computing. In particular, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms provide a computational framework for fitting models of adequate complexity and for evaluating the expected consequences of alternative management actions. We illustrate these features using an example based on management of waterfowl habitat.

  14. Project Manager Performance and the Decision to Backsource the Project Management Office

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lively, William R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews a management decision of an Information Technology Outsource (ITO) provider to backshore the management oversight of its Project Management Office (PMO) after only one year of offshore operations. Governance is a term used in project management to refer to management oversight. The review is a quantitative analysis of existing…

  15. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilweil, Victor M.; Ortiz, Gema; Susong, David D.

    2009-01-01

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as an aquifer storage and recovery project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District (WCWCD). Since its inception in 2002 through 2007, surface-water diversions of about 126,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have resulted in a generally rising reservoir stage and surface area. Large volumes of runoff during spring 2005-06 allowed the WCWCD to fill the reservoir to a total storage capacity of more than 50,000 acre-feet, with a corresponding surface area of about 1,300 acres and reservoir stage of about 3,060 feet during 2006. During 2007, reservoir stage generally decreased to about 3,040 feet with a surface-water storage volume of about 30,000 acre-feet. Water temperature in the reservoir shows large seasonal variation and has ranged from about 3 to 30 deg C from 2003 through 2007. Except for anomalously high recharge rates during the first year when the vadose zone beneath the reservoir was becoming saturated, estimated ground-water recharge rates have ranged from 0.01 to 0.09 feet per day. Estimated recharge volumes have ranged from about 200 to 3,500 acre-feet per month from March 2002 through December 2007. Total ground-water recharge during the same period is estimated to have been about 69,000 acre-feet. Estimated evaporation rates have varied from 0.04 to 0.97 feet per month, resulting in evaporation losses of 20 to 1,200 acre-feet per month. Total evaporation from March 2002 through December 2007 is estimated to have been about 25,000 acre-feet. Results of water-quality sampling at monitoring wells indicate that by 2007, managed aquifer recharge had arrived at sites 37 and 36, located 60 and 160 feet from the reservoir, respectively. However, different peak arrival dates for specific conductance, chloride, chloride/bromide ratios, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved-gas pressures at each monitoring well indicate the complicated nature of

  16. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making: Managing Water in a Deeply Uncertain World of Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.

    2013-12-01

    Water resources planning and management has always required the consideration of uncertainties and the associated system vulnerabilities that they may cause. Despite the long legacy of these issues, our decision support frameworks that have dominated the literature over the past 50 years have struggled with the strongly multiobjective and deeply uncertain nature of water resources systems. The term deep uncertainty (or Knightian uncertainty) refers to factors in planning that strongly shape system risks that maybe unknown and even if known there is a strong lack of consensus on their likelihoods over decadal planning horizons (population growth, financial stability, valuation of resources, ecosystem requirements, evolving water institutions, regulations, etc). In this presentation, I will propose and demonstrate the many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework for water resources management under deep uncertainty. The MORDM framework will be demonstrated using an urban water portfolio management test case. In the test case, a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley managing population and drought pressures must cost effectively maintain the reliability of its water supply by blending permanent rights to reservoir inflows with alternative strategies for purchasing water within the region's water market. The case study illustrates the significant potential pitfalls in the classic Cost-Reliability conception of the problem. Moreover, the proposed MORDM framework exploits recent advances in multiobjective search, visualization, and sensitivity analysis to better expose these pitfalls en route to identifying highly robust water planning alternatives.

  17. Municipal solid waste management system: decision support through systems analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Pires, Ana Lúcia Lourenço

    2010-01-01

    Thesis submitted to the Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Environmental Engineering The present study intends to show the development of systems analysis model applied to solid waste management system, applied into AMARSUL, a solid waste management system responsible for the management of municipal solid waste produced in Setúbal peninsula, Portugal. The model developed intended to promote sustainable decision making, ...

  18. Large reservoirs: Chapter 17

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Bettoli, Phillip William

    2010-01-01

    Large impoundments, defined as those with surface area of 200 ha or greater, are relatively new aquatic ecosystems in the global landscape. They represent important economic and environmental resources that provide benefits such as flood control, hydropower generation, navigation, water supply, commercial and recreational fisheries, and various other recreational and esthetic values. Construction of large impoundments was initially driven by economic needs, and ecological consequences received little consideration. However, in recent decades environmental issues have come to the forefront. In the closing decades of the 20th century societal values began to shift, especially in the developed world. Society is no longer willing to accept environmental damage as an inevitable consequence of human development, and it is now recognized that continued environmental degradation is unsustainable. Consequently, construction of large reservoirs has virtually stopped in North America. Nevertheless, in other parts of the world construction of large reservoirs continues. The emergence of systematic reservoir management in the early 20th century was guided by concepts developed for natural lakes (Miranda 1996). However, we now recognize that reservoirs are different and that reservoirs are not independent aquatic systems inasmuch as they are connected to upstream rivers and streams, the downstream river, other reservoirs in the basin, and the watershed. Reservoir systems exhibit longitudinal patterns both within and among reservoirs. Reservoirs are typically arranged sequentially as elements of an interacting network, filter water collected throughout their watersheds, and form a mosaic of predictable patterns. Traditional approaches to fisheries management such as stocking, regulating harvest, and in-lake habitat management do not always produce desired effects in reservoirs. As a result, managers may expend resources with little benefit to either fish or fishing. Some locally

  19. Decision support system for containment and release management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oosterhuis, B [Twente Univ., Enschede (Netherlands). Computer Science Dept.

    1995-09-01

    The Containment and Release Management project was carried out within the Reinforced Concerted Action Programme for Accident Management Support and partly financed by the European Union. In this report a prototype of an accident management support system is presented. The support system integrates several concepts from accident management research, like safety objective trees, severe accident phenomena, calculation models and an emergency response data system. These concepts are provided by the prototype in such a way that the decision making process of accident management is supported. The prototype application is demonstrated by process data taken from a severe accident scenario for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) that was simulated with the thermohydraulic computer program MAAP. The prototype was derived from a decision support framework based on a decision theory. For established and innovative concepts from accident management research it is pointed out in which way these concepts can support accident management and how these concepts can be integrated. This approach is generic in two ways; it applies to both pressurized and boiling water reactors and it applies to both in vessel management and containment and release management. The prototype application was developed in Multimedia Toolbox 3.0 and requires at least a 386 PC with 4 MB memory, 6 MB free disk space and MS Windows 3.1. (orig.).

  20. Decision support system for containment and release management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oosterhuis, B.

    1995-09-01

    The Containment and Release Management project was carried out within the Reinforced Concerted Action Programme for Accident Management Support and partly financed by the European Union. In this report a prototype of an accident management support system is presented. The support system integrates several concepts from accident management research, like safety objective trees, severe accident phenomena, calculation models and an emergency response data system. These concepts are provided by the prototype in such a way that the decision making process of accident management is supported. The prototype application is demonstrated by process data taken from a severe accident scenario for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) that was simulated with the thermohydraulic computer program MAAP. The prototype was derived from a decision support framework based on a decision theory. For established and innovative concepts from accident management research it is pointed out in which way these concepts can support accident management and how these concepts can be integrated. This approach is generic in two ways; it applies to both pressurized and boiling water reactors and it applies to both in vessel management and containment and release management. The prototype application was developed in Multimedia Toolbox 3.0 and requires at least a 386 PC with 4 MB memory, 6 MB free disk space and MS Windows 3.1. (orig.)

  1. Portfolio Management Decision Support Tools Analysis Relating to Management Value Metrics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Goodson, Christopher J; Knutson, Richard D

    2007-01-01

    .... The results of this research will assist MDA managers, and operational leaders, in making portfolio management decisions for allocating resources to create the correct support tools for MDA processes...

  2. Factors that influence producer decisions to implement management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Thomas G

    2014-12-01

    Cow-calf enterprises in the USA are widely divergent in size, locale, resource availability, management skill, and market focus. Furthermore, variation exists in dependence on the cow-calf enterprise as a primary source of income, perception about the utility of a particular management practice or technology, and assessment of cost: benefit resulting from implementation impact decisions. Enterprises with larger cow inventories, greater dependence on income from the cattle enterprise, and that retain ownership further into the supply chain beyond the cow-calf operation are more likely to institute management protocols such as vaccination programs, defined calving seasons, and reproductive technologies. Successful cow-calf managers place the highest priority on herd nutrition, pasture and range management, herd health, financial management marketing, production management, and genetics. Management practices are more likely to be adopted when they align with a manager's perception of the utility, labor availability, favorable cost: benefit outcomes and profit motivation.

  3. Knowledge Management Technology for Decision Support: an empirical examination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meliha Handzic

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the effectiveness of one type of knowledge management technology, namely 'contextual knowledge repository', for supporting individual decision makers in a predictive judgement task context. 31 volunteer subjects participated in the study. The results indicate that a given technology was fairly useful, but insufficient to maximally enhance individual decision making. On one hand, subjects were found to extract more knowledge and make significantly smaller decision errors than their notional naive counterparts. On the other hand, subjects tended to extract less knowledge and make significantly larger decision errors compared to notional optimal counterparts. These findings suggest that individuals could potentially benefit from those knowledge management technologies that would provide additional explicit analytical and procedural knowledge, or those that would facilitate sharing of tacit knowledge through interaction with others. Future research is necessary to address these issues.

  4. Decision-theoretic planning of clinical patient management

    OpenAIRE

    Peek, Niels Bastiaan

    2000-01-01

    When a doctor is treating a patient, he is constantly facing decisions. From the externally visible signs and symptoms he must establish a hypothesis of what might be wrong with the patient; then he must decide whether additional diagnostic procedures are required to verify this hypothesis, whether therapeutic action is necessary, and which post-therapeutic trajectory is to be followed. All these bedside decisions are related to each other, and the whole task of clinical patient management ca...

  5. A Multidimensional Ethics Scale for Indian Managers' Moral Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Seema

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the role of traditional moral theories in managers’ moral decision making using the multidimensional ethics scale (MES) developed and refined by Reidenbach and Robin (1988, 1990). This study extends their work by examining the applicability of the scale to subjects from India, other than the country in which the scale was developed. The research question is: what kind of ethical dimensions do Indian managers reveal when they are making moral decisions. Factor analysis is d...

  6. The impact of management science on political decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, M. J.

    1971-01-01

    The possible impact on public policy and organizational decision making of operations research/management science (OR/MS) is discussed. Criticisms based on the assumption that OR/MS will have influence on decision making and criticisms based on the assumption that it will have no influence are described. New directions in the analysis of analysis and in thinking about policy making are also considered.

  7. Science-based natural resource management decisions: what are they?

    Science.gov (United States)

    T.J. Mills; T.M. Quigley; F.J. Everest

    2001-01-01

    While many people interested in natural resources management propose science-based decisions, it is not clear what “science-based” means. Science-based decisions are those that result from the full and complete consideration of the relevant science information. We offer five guidelines to focus the scientist’s contributions to science-based decisionmaking and use the...

  8. Design and development of bio-inspired framework for reservoir operation optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asvini, M. Sakthi; Amudha, T.

    2017-12-01

    Frameworks for optimal reservoir operation play an important role in the management of water resources and delivery of economic benefits. Effective utilization and conservation of water from reservoirs helps to manage water deficit periods. The main challenge in reservoir optimization is to design operating rules that can be used to inform real-time decisions on reservoir release. We develop a bio-inspired framework for the optimization of reservoir release to satisfy the diverse needs of various stakeholders. In this work, single-objective optimization and multiobjective optimization problems are formulated using an algorithm known as "strawberry optimization" and tested with actual reservoir data. Results indicate that well planned reservoir operations lead to efficient deployment of the reservoir water with the help of optimal release patterns.

  9. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  10. Controlling Eutrophication in A Mediterranean Shallow Reservoir by Phosphorus Loading Reduction: The Need for an Integrated Management Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaragüeta, Mikel; Acebes, Pablo

    2017-04-01

    Increased nutrient enrichment in Mediterranean standing waters has enhanced the risk of being affected by cyanobacterial blooms. Because phosphorus abatement is shaped as a crucial strategy for controlling eutrophication, this study introduces a structural thinking, experiential learning laboratory with animation dynamic model elaborated for Cazalegas Reservoir (Spain) to assess the feasibility of implementing a set of internal and external control measures and hydromorphological adjustments to meet the goal of oligotrophication. This shallow reservoir is another case where recurrent eutrophication has led to reach annual mean total phosphorus concentrations (0.16 ± 0.08 mg total phosphorus/L) over the threshold of current water policies, triggering cyanobacterial growth up to undesirable levels in summer time (approximately 50,000 cells/mL). Modeling results showed that (i) after upgrading water treatment in the main tributary, (ii) applying a lanthanum-modified bentonite into the water column and sediment, and (iii) increasing reservoir water level, in-lake P concentrations and cyanobacterial abundance decreased in an 88% (below 0.01 mg total phosphorus/L) and 84% (below 6000 cells/mL), respectively in the most critical periods. However, the constraints of the proposed management strategies are associated with their costs of implementation and the time span for a stable trophic recovery of the reservoir. In that end, integrated management approaches are aimed to be adopted by water managers to reach adequate ecological status of freshwater bodies.

  11. Integrating environmental monitoring with cumulative effects management and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F

    2018-05-01

    Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to

  12. Evaluation of Management of Water Release for Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana, 1984 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lere, Mark E. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Missoula, MT)

    1984-11-01

    control section and 82.3mm in the dewatered section. Population estimates conducted in the Spring, 1984 indicated densities of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) greater than 254 mm in total length were not significantly different between the control and dewatered sections (p > 0.20). Young of the year rainbow trout and brown trout per 10m of river edge electrofished during 1984 were more abundant in the control section than the dewatered section and were more abundant in side channel habitat than main channel habitat. Minimum flow recommendations obtained from wetted perimeter-discharge relationships averaged 8.5m{sup 3}/sec in the control section and 10.6m{sup 3}/sec in the dewatered section of the Bitterroot River. The quantity of supplemental water from Painted Rocks Reservoir needed to maintain minimum flow recommendations is discussed in the Draft Water Management Plan for the Proposed Purchase of Supplemental Water from Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana (Lere 1984).

  13. New Management Tools – From Video Management Systems to Business Decision Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilian Cristian IRIMESCU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades management was characterized by the increased use of Business Decision Systems, also called Decision Support Systems. More than that, systems that were until now used in a traditional way, for some simple activities (like security, migrated to the decision area of management. Some examples are the Video Management Systems from the physical security activity. This article will underline the way Video Management Systems passed to Business Decision Systems, which are the advantages of use thereof and which are the trends in this industry. The article will also analyze if at this moment Video Management Systems are real Business Decision Systems or if there are some functions missing to rank them at this level.

  14. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliakbar Farhangi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

  15. Getting "boater" all the time: managing fishing by boat on New York city water supply reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer A. Cairo

    2007-01-01

    In 2003 the New York City Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Water Supply undertook a five-year initiative to improve fishing by boat on its Water Supply reservoirs and controlled lakes in upstate New York. The project includes cleanup of administrative procedures and boat fishing areas on reservoir shores; improving two-way communication with anglers;...

  16. Fishing for improvements: managing fishing by boat on New York City water supply reservoirs and lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicole L. Green; Jennifer A. Cairo

    2008-01-01

    In 2003, the New York City Department of Environmental Protection Bureau of Water Supply undertook a 5-year initiative to improve fishing by boat on its water supply reservoirs and controlled lakes in upstate New York. The project includes: revising administrative procedures; cleaning up boat fishing areas on reservoir shores; improving two-way communication with...

  17. Risk management in oil reservoir water-flooding under economic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siraj, Muhammad; Van den Hof, Paul; Jansen, Jan Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Model-based economic optimization of the water-flooding process in oil reservoirs suffers from high levels of uncertainty. The achievable economic objective is highly uncertain due to the varying economic conditions and the limited knowledge of the reservoir model parameters. For improving

  18. Marketing Decision Making and Decision Support: Challenges and Perspectives for Successful Marketing Management Support Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit); B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractMarketing management support systems (MMSS) are computer-enabled devices that help marketers to make better decisions. Marketing processes can be quite complex, involving large numbers of variables and mostly outcomes are the results of the actions of many different stakeholders (e.g.,

  19. Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schwenk-Ferrero

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA framework for a comparative evaluation of nuclear waste management strategies taking into account different local perspectives (expert and stakeholder opinions. Of note, a novel approach is taken using a multiple-criteria formulation that is methodologically adapted to tackle various conflicting criteria and a large number of expert/stakeholder groups involved in the decision-making process. The purpose is to develop a framework and to show its application to qualitative comparison and ranking of options in a hypothetical case of three waste management alternatives: interim storage at and/or away from the reactor site for the next 100 years, interim decay storage followed in midterm by disposal in a national repository, and disposal in a multinational repository. Additionally, major aspects of a decision-making aid are identified and discussed in separate paper sections dedicated to application context, decision supporting process, in particular problem structuring, objective hierarchy, performance evaluation modeling, sensitivity/robustness analyses, and interpretation of results (practical impact. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the application of the MCDA framework developed to a generic hypothetical case and indicate how MCDA could support a decision on nuclear waste management policies in a “small” newcomer country embarking on nuclear technology in the future.

  20. Financial statements in the function of management decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrvaljević Mirjana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper discuss on the role and importance of information which are provided by financial statements in business decision-making is considered. Basically, financial reports represent information basis for making economic / financial decisions for a wide range of users because they represent the key source of information about the financial position of a company at the end of a period, about the achieved results of the company for the period, about the cash flow within the company etc. In accordance with the process of globalisation, international frameworks have regulated the accounting standards which have been created and introduced in order to achieve transparency and uniformity of financial reports of any company, regardless its scope of work and the country where it does its business. The management of a company is aimed at the perception of future events and the flow of values within a company as a result of present decisions, while the accounting is ex post oriented. Nevertheless, the connections between accounting and management of a company are important and multiple because it is the effects of management decisions that are evaluated through financial statements, which are the product of company accounting in which all the business decisions are processed.

  1. Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent......, or by ignoring the causes. This substitutes manual reviews to some extent. The concepts, implemented in a tool, have been validated with design patterns, refactorings, and domain level tests that comprise a replay of a real project. This proves the applicability of the solution to realistic examples...

  2. The Evidential Basis of Decision Making in Plant Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth

    2017-08-04

    The evidential basis for disease management decision making is provided by data relating to risk factors. The decision process involves an assessment of the evidence leading to taking (or refraining from) action on the basis of a prediction. The primary objective of the decision process is to identify-at the time the decision is made-the control action that provides the best predicted end-of-season outcome, calculated in terms of revenue or another appropriate metric. Data relating to disease risk factors may take a variety of forms (e.g., continuous, discrete, categorical) on measurement scales in a variety of units. Log 10 -likelihood ratios provide a principled basis for the accumulation of evidence based on such data and allow predictions to be made via Bayesian updating of prior probabilities.

  3. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  4. Making Informed Decisions: Management Issues Influencing Computers in the Classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, James

    A number of noninstructional factors appear to determine the extent to which computers make a difference in writing instruction. Once computers have been purchased and installed, it is generally school administrators who make management decisions, often from an uninformed pedagogical orientation. Issues such as what hardware and software to buy,…

  5. Design decisions in workflow management and quality of work.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waal, B.M.E. de; Batenburg, R.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the design and implementation of a workflow management (WFM) system in a large Dutch social insurance organisation is described. The effect of workflow design decisions on the quality of work is explored theoretically and empirically, using the model of Zur Mühlen as a frame of

  6. A conceptual tool for improving rangeland management decision ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the LLM concept should be seen as a continuous and evolving learning process that will be updated over the long term through decision support to include several other components essential to implement effective and sustainable rangeland management practices by local land users. Keywords: desertification; indicators ...

  7. Outsourced Investment Management: An Overview for Institutional Decision-Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2013-01-01

    Outsourcing of investment management is a growing trend among institutional investors. With a broad range of institutions using or exploring the outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) model, portfolio size is no longer the determining factor driving the outsourcing decision. For all but the largest institutional investors--those with deep…

  8. Fleet Management Decision Making With Individual Aircraft Tracking Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Newcamp, Jeffrey; Verhagen, W.J.C.; Curran, R.

    2017-01-01

    Individual aircraft tracking data can be used by aircraft fleet managers to detect patterns in historical usage as a means to aid aging aircraft decision-making. This work tackles two aspects of applying these tracking data: investigating retirement patterns and assessing how base assignment can

  9. Evaluating Academic Journals without Impact Factors for Collection Management Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilevko, Juris; Atkinson, Esther

    2002-01-01

    Discussion of evaluating academic journals for collection management decisions focuses on a methodological framework for evaluating journals not ranked by impact factors in Journal Citation Reports. Compares nonranked journals with ranked journals and then applies this framework to a case study in the field of medical science. (LRW)

  10. Decision-support tool for management of miombo woodlands: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model complexity is well adapted to the data quality and abundance, and it is dependent on proxies of some main drivers of the dynamic processes. The development of the matrix model is a step forward facilitating better decisions in the management of miombo woodlands. However, data ranges used for calibrating ...

  11. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; de Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  12. Real Time Traffic Models, Decision Support for Traffic Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  13. Information sources for decision making by senior managers in two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Senior managers shoulder the responsibility of formulating policies that organization needs for the smooth running of their individuals establishments. The quality of decision made is also dependent on how current the sources of information utilized to make it. Much of policies formulated for national development have little ...

  14. Multiobjective decision-making in integrated water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wind, H.G.; Pouwels, I.H.M.; Pouwels, I.H.M.; Witter, V.J.

    1995-01-01

    Traditionally, decision-making by water authorities in the Netherlands is largely based on intuition. Their tasks were, after all, relatively few and straight-forward. The growing number of tasks, together with the new integrated approach on water management issues, however, induces water

  15. Using Personality Data to Make Decisions about Global Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, Anuradha; Hazucha, Joy F.; Bank, Jurgen

    2008-01-01

    A major challenge that decisions makers face in multi-national organizations is how to compare managers from different parts of the globe. This challenge is both psychometric and practical. We draw on the cross-cultural psychology literature to propose a three-step framework to compare personality data from different countries. The first step…

  16. Sport Management Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumpkin, Angela; Franco, Dan; Multon, Karen; Achen, Rebecca M.

    2017-01-01

    Grounded in a social cognitive theoretical perspective, this study explores the career decision-making self-efficacy (CDSE) and vocational identity development process for college students interested or majoring in sport management. While a popular undergraduate major, little research has investigated the specific factors that influence different…

  17. Decision support for natural resource management; models and evaluation methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wessels, J.; Makowski, M.; Nakayama, H.

    2001-01-01

    When managing natural resources or agrobusinesses, one always has to deal with autonomous processes. These autonomous processes play a core role in designing model-based decision support systems. This chapter tries to give insight into the question of which types of models might be used in which

  18. A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.E.

    1997-03-01

    A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

  19. People and Decisions: Meeting the Information Needs of Managers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blake, J.I.; LeMaster, E.

    2000-10-01

    The information needs of managers with respect to avian species at the SRS are identified. The process by which information is integrated into decision making are discussed. Numerous studies of upland bird species at SRS were conducted as part of the DOE Biodiversity Program. This information is being incorporated into biological assessments and plan through modeling and geographic information systems.

  20. The effect of scientific evidence on conservation practitioners' management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Jessica C; Dicks, Lynn V; Sutherland, William J

    2015-02-01

    A major justification of environmental management research is that it helps practitioners, yet previous studies show it is rarely used to inform their decisions. We tested whether conservation practitioners focusing on bird management were willing to use a synopsis of relevant scientific literature to inform their management decisions. This allowed us to examine whether the limited use of scientific information in management is due to a lack of access to the scientific literature or whether it is because practitioners are either not interested or unable to incorporate the research into their decisions. In on-line surveys, we asked 92 conservation managers, predominantly from Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, to provide opinions on 28 management techniques that could be applied to reduce predation on birds. We asked their opinions before and after giving them a summary of the literature about the interventions' effectiveness. We scored the overall effectiveness and certainty of evidence for each intervention through an expert elicitation process-the Delphi method. We used the effectiveness scores to assess the practitioners' level of understanding and awareness of the literature. On average, each survey participant changed their likelihood of using 45.7% of the interventions after reading the synopsis of the evidence. They were more likely to implement effective interventions and avoid ineffective actions, suggesting that their intended future management strategies may be more successful than current practice. More experienced practitioners were less likely to change their management practices than those with less experience, even though they were not more aware of the existing scientific information than less experienced practitioners. The practitioners' willingness to change their management choices when provided with summarized scientific evidence suggests that improved accessibility to scientific information would benefit conservation management

  1. Management of turbidity current venting in reservoirs under different bed slopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamoun, Sabine; De Cesare, Giovanni; Schleiss, Anton J

    2017-12-15

    The lifetime and efficiency of dams is endangered by the process of sedimentation. To ensure the sustainable use of reservoirs, many sediment management techniques exist, among which venting of turbidity currents. Nevertheless, a number of practical questions remain unanswered due to a lack of systematic investigations. The present research introduces venting and evaluates its performance using an experimental model. In the latter, turbidity currents travel on a smooth bed towards the dam and venting is applied through a rectangular bottom outlet. The combined effect of outflow discharge and bed slopes on the sediment release efficiency of venting is studied based on different criteria. Several outflow discharges are tested using three different bed slopes (i.e., 0%, 2.4% and 5.0%). Steeper slopes yield higher venting efficiency. Additionally, the optimal outflow discharge leading to the largest venting efficiency with the lowest water loss increases when moving from the horizontal bed to the inclined positions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Trade-off decisions in distribution utility management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slavickas, Rimas Anthony

    As a result of the "unbundling" of traditional monopolistic electricity generation and transmission enterprises into a free-market economy, power distribution utilities are faced with very difficult decisions pertaining to electricity supply options and quality of service to the customers. The management of distribution utilities has become increasingly complex, versatile, and dynamic to the extent that conventional, non-automated management tools are almost useless and obsolete. This thesis presents a novel and unified approach to managing electricity supply options and quality of service to customers. The technique formulates the problem in terms of variables, parameters, and constraints. An advanced Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) optimization formulation is developed together with novel, logical, decision-making algorithms. These tools enable the utility management to optimize various cost components and assess their time-trend impacts, taking into account the intangible issues such as customer perception, customer expectation, social pressures, and public response to service deterioration. The above concepts are further generalized and a Logical Proportion Analysis (LPA) methodology and associated software have been developed. Solutions using numbers are replaced with solutions using words (character strings) which more closely emulate the human decision-making process and advance the art of decision-making in the power utility environment. Using practical distribution utility operation data and customer surveys, the developments outlined in this thesis are successfully applied to several important utility management problems. These involve the evaluation of alternative electricity supply options, the impact of rate structures on utility business, and the decision of whether to continue to purchase from a main grid or generate locally (partially or totally) by building Non-Utility Generation (NUG).

  3. Multiunit water resource systems management by decomposition, optimization and emulated evolution : a case study of seven water supply reservoirs in Tunisia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milutin, D.

    1998-01-01

    Being one of the essential elements of almost any water resource system, reservoirs are indispensable in our struggle to harness, utilize and manage natural water resources. Consequently, the derivation of appropriate reservoir operating strategies draws significant attention in water

  4. Crisis management: an extended reference framework for decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carone, Alessandro; Iorio, Luigi Di

    2013-01-01

    The paper discusses a reference framework for capabilities supporting effective crisis management. This framework has been developed by joining experiences in the field and knowledge of organisational models for crisis management, and executives' empowerment, coaching and behavioural analysis. The paper is aimed at offering further insight to executives on critical success factors and means for managing crisis situations by extending the scope of analysis to human behaviour, to emotions and fears and their correlation with decision making. It is further intended to help familiarise them and to facilitate approaching a path towards emotional awareness.

  5. THE IMPORTANCE OF BENCHMARKING IN MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana-Mihaela IONESCU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Launching a new business or project leads managers to make decisions and choose strategies that will then apply in their company. Most often, they take decisions only on instinct, but there are also companies that use benchmarking studies. Benchmarking is a highly effective management tool and is useful in the new competitive environment that has emerged from the need of organizations to constantly improve their performance in order to be competitive. Using this benchmarking process, organizations try to find the best practices applied in a business, learn from famous leaders and identify ways to increase their performance and competitiveness. Thus, managers gather information about market trends and about competitors, especially about the leaders in the field, and use these information in finding ideas and setting of guidelines for development. Benchmarking studies are often used in businesses of commerce, real estate, and industry and high-tech software.

  6. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water......-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use...... change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected...

  7. Management and Decisions in the Structures of Human Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article has been devoted to the key dimensions of decision-making. The main goal of the authors was to point out the role and effect of invariants of nature, logic and conceptual systems of science and management, which are extremely important in decision-making processes. The research hypothesis has been tested that the complexity of decision-making and management are determined by the state of reality (Nature. This hypothesis is related to the fact that in science there is currently no uniform methodology associated with decision-making, just as science is not methodologically uniform. One can even doubt whether it is possible to describe the essential dimensions of decisions undertaken by Man, as discussed in this article. These problems are not a novelty to science, since they have been analysed by many scientists in the past. The authors of the article present the complexity and diversity of concepts defining systems of decision-making and management, based on selected fields of knowledge which are generally relevant to this issue, in particular fields associated with ontology and epistemology. Therefore, the text refers broadly to investigating the reality of basic areas of human knowledge and the overlapping relationships between them. This applies to the so-called circle of the sciences proposed and examined by the psychologist J. Piaget. An additional aim of the authors was to create a text presenting contemporary human knowledge about the reality which surrounds us. To understand reality means to be in relative equilibrium with it. (original abstract

  8. The relationship between patient data and pooled clinical management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludbrook, G I; O'Loughlin, E J; Corcoran, T B; Grant, C

    2013-01-01

    A strong relationship between patient data and preoperative clinical decisions could potentially be used to support clinical decisions in preoperative management. The aim of this exploratory study was to determine the relationship between key patient data and pooled clinical opinions on management. In a previous study, panels of anaesthetists compared the quality of computer-assisted patient health assessments with outpatient consultations and made decisions on the need for preoperative tests, no preoperative outpatient assessment, possible postoperative intensive care unit/high dependency unit requirements and aspiration prophylaxis. In the current study, the relationship between patient data and these decisions was examined using binomial logistic regression analysis. Backward stepwise regression was used to identify independent predictors of each decision (at P >0.15), which were then incorporated into a predictive model. The number of factors related to each decision varied: blood picture (four factors), biochemistry (six factors), coagulation studies (three factors), electrocardiography (eight factors), chest X-ray (seven factors), preoperative outpatient assessment (17 factors), intensive care unit requirement (eight factors) and aspiration prophylaxis (one factor). The factor types also varied, but included surgical complexity, age, gender, number of medications or comorbidities, body mass index, hypertension, central nervous system condition, heart disease, sleep apnoea, smoking, persistent pain and stroke. Models based on these relationships usually demonstrated good sensitivity and specificity, with receiver operating characteristics in the following areas under curve: blood picture (0.75), biochemistry (0.86), coagulation studies (0.71), electrocardiography (0.90), chest X-ray (0.85), outpatient assessment (0.85), postoperative intensive care unit requirement (0.88) and aspiration prophylaxis (0.85). These initial results suggest modelling of patient

  9. An environmentally sustainable decision model for urban solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costi, P.; Minciardi, R.; Robba, M.; Rovatti, M.; Sacile, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present the structure and the application of a decision support system (DSS) designed to help decision makers of a municipality in the development of incineration, disposal, treatment and recycling integrated programs. Specifically, within a MSW management system, several treatment plants and facilities can generally be found: separators, plants for production of refuse derived fuel (RDF), incinerators with energy recovery, plants for treatment of organic material, and sanitary landfills. The main goal of the DSS is to plan the MSW management, defining the refuse flows that have to be sent to recycling or to different treatment or disposal plants, and suggesting the optimal number, the kinds, and the localization of the plants that have to be active. The DSS is based on a decision model that requires the solution of a constrained non-linear optimization problem, where some decision variables are binary and other ones are continuous. The objective function takes into account all possible economic costs, whereas constraints arise from technical, normative, and environmental issues. Specifically, pollution and impacts, induced by the overall solid waste management system, are considered through the formalization of constraints on incineration emissions and on negative effects produced by disposal or other particular treatments

  10. Online decision support system for surface irrigation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenchao; Cui, Yuanlai

    2017-04-01

    Irrigation has played an important role in agricultural production. Irrigation decision support system is developed for irrigation water management, which can raise irrigation efficiency with few added engineering services. An online irrigation decision support system (OIDSS), in consist of in-field sensors and central computer system, is designed for surface irrigation management in large irrigation district. Many functions have acquired in OIDSS, such as data acquisition and detection, real-time irrigation forecast, water allocation decision and irrigation information management. The OIDSS contains four parts: Data acquisition terminals, Web server, Client browser and Communication system. Data acquisition terminals are designed to measure paddy water level, soil water content in dry land, ponds water level, underground water level, and canals water level. A web server is responsible for collecting meteorological data, weather forecast data, the real-time field data, and manager's feedback data. Water allocation decisions are made in the web server. Client browser is responsible for friendly displaying, interacting with managers, and collecting managers' irrigation intention. Communication system includes internet and the GPRS network used by monitoring stations. The OIDSS's model is based on water balance approach for both lowland paddy and upland crops. Considering basic database of different crops water demands in the whole growth stages and irrigation system engineering information, the OIDSS can make efficient decision of water allocation with the help of real-time field water detection and weather forecast. This system uses technical methods to reduce requirements of user's specialized knowledge and can also take user's managerial experience into account. As the system is developed by the Browser/Server model, it is possible to make full use of the internet resources, to facilitate users at any place where internet exists. The OIDSS has been applied in

  11. Practical Application of Modern Forecasting and Decision Tools at an Operational River Management Agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawdy, C. M.; Carney, S.; Barber, N. M.; Balk, B. C.; Miller, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) recently completed a complete overhaul of our River Forecast System (RFS). This modernization effort encompassed: uplift or addition of 89 data feeds calibration of a 140 subbasin rainfall-runoff model calibration of over 650 miles of hydraulic routings implementation of a decision optimization routine for 29 reservoirs implementation of hydrothermal forecast models for five river-cooled thermal plants creation of decision-friendly displays creation of a user-friendly wiki creation of a robust reporting system This talk will walk attendees through how a 24x7 river and grid management agency made decisions around how to operationalize the latest technologies in hydrology, hydraulics, decision science and information technology. The tradeoffs inherent in such an endeavor will be discussed so that research-oriented attendees can understand how best to align their research if they desire adoption within industry. More industry-oriented attendees can learn about the mechanics of how to succeed at such a large and complex project. Following the description of the modernization project, I can discuss TVA's plans for future growth of the system. We plan to add the following capabilities in the coming years: forecast verification tools to communicate floodplain risk tools to choose the best possible model forcings ensemble inflow modelling a river policy that allows for more reasonable tradeoff of benefits river decisions based on ensembles The iterative staging of such improvements is highly fraught with technical, political and operational risks. I will discuss how TVA's is using what we learned in the RFS modernization effort to grow further into delivering on the promise of these additional technologies.

  12. Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Don A; Bode, Michael; Bradstock, Ross A; Keith, David A; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

    2016-02-01

    Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management. © 2015

  13. Ensuring robust decisions and deployable solutions in UK LLW management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) is responsible for the decommissioning and site restoration of civil nuclear liabilities in the UK. Our decommissioning programme will last over 100 years and generate approximately 3.8 million m3 of LLW, three quarters of which will be VLLW. As well as decommissioning sites, our estate includes operations, such as power generation at Wylfa and reprocessing and waste management at Sellafield. As a result we have a clear interest in effective and affordable management of low level waste. This is further enhanced by two important aspects: our role in developing and implementing strategy for the management of nuclear industry LLW in the UK and our ownership of the Low Level Waste Repository, a critical part of the UK's radioactive waste management infrastructure. Disposal capacity at LLWR is a precious resource; recognition of this fact has provided effective leverage to changing the way LLW is managed in the UK. In 2010 we published the UK Nuclear Industry LLW Strategy which comprised three main themes: the waste hierarchy; making the best use of existing LLW management assets; and, the need for new fit-for-purpose waste management routes. In order to preserve disposal capacity at LLWR we wanted to increase choice for organisations that manage LLW. Regulation of the LLW management has also had to keep pace with and enable this change. Increasing choice requires an increased focus on making robust, and not always easy, decisions. In the past, 'LLW' was simply consigned for disposal at LLWR, now LLW managers have to make decisions between clearance, exemption, reuse, recycling, incineration and disposal. Arguably, these decisions become more finely balanced at the lower end of the LLW spectrum. In the UK, a number of tools and sources of support are in place to help with this process, including: the National LLW Programme; good practice guidance (industry led) on assessing Best Available Techniques; and a

  14. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  15. Development of a Geomorphology-Based Framework for Cultural Resources Management, Dworshak Reservoir, Idaho

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Corcoran, Maureen

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Army Engineer Research and Development Center developed a technical framework for identifying, evaluating, and mitigating impacts to cultural resource sites affected by reservoir operation in the Columbia River System...

  16. Informed Decision Making Process for Managing Environmental Flows in Small River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padikkal, S.; Rema, K. P.

    2013-03-01

    Numerous examples exist worldwide of partial or complete alteration to the natural flow regime of river systems as a consequence of large scale water abstraction from upstream reaches. The effects may not be conspicuous in the case of very large rivers, but the ecosystems of smaller rivers or streams may be completely destroyed over a period of time. While restoration of the natural flow regime may not be possible, at present there is increased effort to implement restoration by regulating environmental flow. This study investigates the development of an environmental flow management model at an icon site in the small river basin of Bharathapuzha, west India. To determine optimal environmental flow regimes, a historic flow model based on data assimilated since 1978 indicated a satisfactory minimum flow depth for river ecosystem sustenance is 0.907 m (28.8 m3/s), a value also obtained from the hydraulic model; however, as three of the reservoirs were already operational at this time a flow depth of 0.922 m is considered a more viable estimate. Analysis of daily stream flow in 1997-2006, indicated adequate flow regimes during the monsoons in June-November, but that sections of the river dried out in December-May with alarming water quality conditions near the river mouth. Furthermore, the preferred minimum `dream' flow regime expressed by stakeholders of the region is a water depth of 1.548 m, which exceeds 50 % of the flood discharge in July. Water could potentially be conserved for environmental flow purposes by (1) the de-siltation of existing reservoirs or (2) reducing water spillage in the transfer between river basins. Ultimately environmental flow management of the region requires the establishment of a co-ordinated management body and the regular assimilation of water flow information from which science based decisions are made, to ensure both economic and environmental concerns are adequately addressed.

  17. Impacts, Perceptions and Management of Climate-Related Risks to Cage Aquaculture in the Reservoirs of Northern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebel, Louis; Lebel, Phimphakan; Lebel, Boripat

    2016-12-01

    Weather is suspected to influence fish growth and survival, and be a factor in mass mortality events in cage aquaculture in reservoirs. The purpose of this study was to identify the important climate-related risks faced by cage aquaculture farms; evaluate how these risks were currently being managed; and explore how farmers might adapt to the effects of climate change. Fish farmers were interviewed across the northern region of Thailand to get information on impacts, perceptions and practices. Drought or low water levels, heat waves, cold spells and periods with dense cloud cover, each caused significant financial losses. Perceptions of climate-related risks were consistent with experienced impacts. Risks are primarily managed in the short-term with techniques like aeration and reducing feed. In the mid-term farmers adjust stocking calendars, take financial measures and seek new information. Farmers also emphasize the importance of maintaining good relations with other stakeholders and reservoir management. Larger farms placed greater importance on risk management than small farms, even though types and levels of risk perceived were very similar. Most fish farms were managed by men alone, or men and women working together. Gender differences in risk perception were not detected, but women judged a few risk management practices as more important than men. Fish farmers perceived that climate is changing, but their perceptions were not strongly associated with recently having suffered impacts from extreme weather. The findings of this study provide important inputs to improving risk management under current and future climate.

  18. New geomechanical developments for reservoir management; Desenvolvimentos experimentais e computacionais para analises geomecanicas de reservatorio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Antonio C.; Menezes Filho, Armando Prestes; Silvestre, Jose R. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES)

    2008-07-01

    The common assumption that oil is produced under a constant rate only considering reservoir depletion has been questioned for some time. An usual hypothesis is that the physical properties of a reservoir are not constants during time, but they vary according to the properties of reservoir rock and the characteristics of the external loads. More precisely, as soon as a reservoir is explored, the volume of fluid diminishes, decreasing the static pressure and increasing the effective stress over the rock skeleton, which, depending on the nature of rock, can lead to a gradual deformation and alteration of reservoir's porosity and permeability, and oil productivity as well. This paper aims at showing numerical and experimental achievements, developed by the Well bore Engineering Technology Department of CENPES, devoted to the characterization of the influence of stress-strain states on the permeability and production of reservoir rocks. It is believed that these developments can possibly bring some light to the understanding of this complex phenomenon, besides allowing the establishment of more realistic relations involving stress-strain-permeability in coupled fluid dynamic problems. (author)

  19. Operational trade-offs in reservoir control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, Aris P.

    1993-11-01

    Reservoir operation decisions require constant reevaluation in the face of conflicting objectives, varying hydrologic conditions, and frequent operational policy changes. Optimality is a relative concept very much dependent on the circumstances under which a decision is made. More than anything else, reservoir management authorities need the means to assess the impacts of various operational options. It is their responsibility to define what is desirable after a thorough evaluation of the existing circumstances. This article presents a model designed to generate operational trade-offs common among reservoir systems. The model avoids an all-encompassing problem formulation and distinguishes three operational modes (levels) corresponding to normal, drought, and flood operations. Each level addresses only relevant system elements and uses a static and a dynamic control module to optimize turbine performance within each planning period and temporally. The model is used for planning the operation of the Savannah River System.

  20. Knowledge-Based Information Management in Decision Support for Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith Reynolds; Micahel Saunders; Richard Olson; Daniel Schmoldt; Michael Foster; Donald Latham; Bruce Miller; John Steffenson; Lawrence Bednar; Patrick Cunningham

    1995-01-01

    The Pacific Northwest Research Station (USDA Forest Service) is developing a knowledge-based information management system to provide decision support for watershed analysis in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. The decision support system includes: (1) a GIS interface that allows users to graphically navigate to specific provinces and watersheds and display a...

  1. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  2. Slow down or race to halt: towards managing complexity of real-time energy management decisions

    OpenAIRE

    Petters, Stefan M.; Awan, Muhammad Ali

    2010-01-01

    Existing work in the context of energy management for real-time systems often ignores the substantial cost of making DVFS and sleep state decisions in terms of time and energy and/or assume very simple models. Within this paper we attempt to explore the parameter space for such decisions and possible constraints faced.

  3. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  4. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  5. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  6. Radioactive Waste Management System: Draft Project Decision Schedule. Revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-07-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act (NWPA) of 1982 (Pub. L. 97-425) requires that the Secretary of Energy prepare, in cooperation with affected Federal agencies, a Project Decision Schedule that portrays the optimum way to attain the operation of geologic repositories. The Draft Project Decision Schedule portrays the major milestones of the Radioactive Waste Management System. It also depicts the set of activities for which Federal agencies have responsibility and the deadlines for taking the required action that are associated with the activities. The NWPA also requires that Federal agencies having determined that they: (1) cannot comply with a deadline for taking a required action; or (2) fail to comply with a deadline contained in the Project Decision Schedule; submit a comprehensive report to the Secretary of Energy and Congress to explain their failure or expected failure. The Secretary, in turn, is required to submit to Congress a response to the agency's report. 7 figs., 13 tabs

  7. Prediction of radionuclide migration in the Pripyat river and Dnieper reservoirs and decision support of water protection measures on the basis of mathematical modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morozov, A.A.; Zheleznyak, M.J.; Voitsekhovich, O.; Aliev, K.A.; Bilotkach, U.V.

    1997-01-01

    Since May 1986 in Kiev in the Institute of Mathematical Machines and System Problems, Cybernetics Center of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has been started the development of the computerised system for processing of Dniper basin radiological monitoring data and modelling of radionuclide dispersion in rivers and reservoirs. For this work it was established the Interdisciplinary Working Group that joints the specialists from the State Committee of Water Resources, State Committee of Hydrometeorology, National Academy of Sciences and other Ukrainian institutions. The objectives of the computerized system development were formulated by the State Emergency Commission and later by the Ukrainian Minchernobyl as follows: reliable evaluation of the surface water contamination at Pripyat River and Dnieper River on the basis of monitoring data from the different institutions; seasonal and long-term prediction of the surface water radioactive contamination; decision support for the aquatic post-accidental countermeasures, directed to diminish the radionuclides fluxes from the Chernobyl area through the Pripyat River and Dnieper Reservoirs; decision support for the countermeasures directed on changes in the water assumption

  8. Stepwise Decision Making for Long-Term Radioactive Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, Claudio; Vari, Anna

    2003-01-01

    Consideration is increasingly being given, in radioactive waste management (RWM), to concepts such as 'stepwise decision making' and 'adaptive staging' in which the public, and especially the local communities, are also meaningfully involved in the review and planning of developments. The key feature of these concepts is development by steps or stages that are reversible, within the limits of practicability and provided they meet the requirements of an acceptable safety case. Stepwise decisions are designed to provide reassurance that actions can be reversed if experience shows them to have adverse or unwanted effects. Stepwise decision making has thus come to the fore as being especially important for making progress for radioactive waste management in a manner which is acceptable to large sectors of society. Despite its early identification within the RWM community as an important means for reaching decision in which there is broad-based confidence, stepwise decision making has not been widely debated. Accepted guiding principles of any such process have not yet been formulated, its roots in empirical social science research have not been fully reviewed, nor the difficulties of its implementation analysed. This paper reviews the current developments regarding stepwise decision making in RWM with the aim to pinpoint where it stands, to highlight its societal dimension, to analyse its roots in social sciences, and to identify guiding principles and issues in implementation. It is observed that there is convergence between the approach taken by the practitioners of RWM and the indications received from field studies in social research, and that general guiding principles can be proposed at least as a basis for further discussion. A strong basis for dialogue across disciplines thus exists. General methodological issues are also identified. This paper was developed in the framework of the activities of the NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence, which is presented in a

  9. Risk management in facility transition and management decision making: Needs and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stillwell, W.; Seaver, D.; Keller, J.; Smith, D.; Weaver, D.; Sanders, T.; Thullen, P.

    1993-02-01

    An overall approach to risk management is described in this paper. Many of these concepts have been developed and applied as part of Hanford Mission Planning (HMP) (Hanford Mission Plan, 1992). At Hanford, HMP provides a mechanism for integrating planning across all the missions and programs of the site. This paper discusses the decision context within which EM must make and defend decisions, the types of decisions that are being and will need to be made in order to progress with the cleanup of the DOE complex, and the resulting need for risk management. Risk management, in turn, requires quality health and ecological risk information to make these decisions. Other types of information are also needed, but the risk information is typically the most important and the most difficult to obtain. The paper then describes a general technical approach to risk management, including particular methods for developing the high quality of human health and ecological risk information that will be needed to support risk management. We next turn to several special issues that make risk management more complex than many other decisions. We discuss these issues and offer some practical suggestions with respect to addressing them in the risk management framework. Finally, we conclude with some discussion of other opportunities for applying risk management

  10. Using basic geographic information systems functionality to support sustainable forest management decision making and post-decision assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; R. James Barbour; Krista M. Gebert; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Dacia M. Meneguzzo; et al.

    2006-01-01

    Sustainable management of natural resources requires informed decision making and post-decision assessments of the results of those decisions. Increasingly, both activities rely on analyses of spatial data in the forms of maps and digital data layers. Fortunately, a variety of supporting maps and data layers rapidly are becoming available. Unfortunately, however, user-...

  11. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.E.

    1997-01-01

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  12. How customer relationship management influences making better decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Izadi Manesh

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Customers are the primary sources of making appropriate decisions and their feedbacks normally help us improve the quality of systems. In this paper, we present an empirical study to detect important factors influencing managers of banking industry make better decisions. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in Likert scale consists of 32 questions, distributes it among some bank managers. Cronbach alpha is calculated as 0.805. In addition, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy and Approx. Chi-Square are 0.701 and 1675, respectively. Based on the results of our survey, we have derived nine factors including customers’ welfare strategy, systems integration, organizational culture assessment, corporate strategies, organizational development, intelligence data strategies, supporting strategies, resource planning as well as research and development.

  13. Shared decision making and medication management in the recovery process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deegan, Patricia E; Drake, Robert E

    2006-11-01

    Mental health professionals commonly conceptualize medication management for people with severe mental illness in terms of strategies to increase compliance or adherence. The authors argue that compliance is an inadequate construct because it fails to capture the dynamic complexity of autonomous clients who must navigate decisional conflicts in learning to manage disorders over the course of years or decades. Compliance is rooted in medical paternalism and is at odds with principles of person-centered care and evidence-based medicine. Using medication is an active process that involves complex decision making and a chance to work through decisional conflicts. It requires a partnership between two experts: the client and the practitioner. Shared decision making provides a model for them to assess a treatment's advantages and disadvantages within the context of recovering a life after a diagnosis of a major mental disorder.

  14. Ecological user interface for emergency management decision support systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, V.

    2003-01-01

    The user interface for decision support systems is normally structured for presenting relevant data for the skilled user in order to allow fast assessment and action of the hazardous situation, or for more complex situations to present the relevant rules and procedures to be followed in order to ...... of this paper is to discuss the possibility of using the same principles for emergency management with the aim of improved performance in complex and unanticipated situations....

  15. The role of behavioral decision theory for cockpit information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, Jon E.

    1991-01-01

    The focus of this report is the consideration of one form of cognition, judgment and decision making, while examining some information management issues associated with the implementation of new forms of automation. As technology matures and more tasks become suitable to automation, human factors researchers will have to consider the effect that increasing automation will have on operator performance. Current technology allows flight deck designers the opportunity to automate activities involving substantially more cognitive processing.

  16. Risk and uncertainty in the structure of management decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured into five chapters addressing the following subject matters: 1 - The risk descriptor implied by the power systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 - Concepts and operators for describing the nuclear power risk; 1.2 - Risk approach in a holistic conception; 2 - Modelling the risk in the frame of re-engineering concept; 2.1 - Defining and interpreting the power re-engineering; 2.2 - Managerial re-engineering of power production systems; 3 - Informatics system of managing the power objectives with nuclear injection; 3.1 - Informatics systems for risk at the level of CANDU - 600 nuclear plant; 3.2. - Expert function structure applicable to the management of power objectives with nuclear injection; 4 - Assisting support in the operation of nuclear facilities; 4.1 - Assisting support system for nuclear plant operation; 4.2 - Program products for dedicated drivers; 5 - The management decision activities at the level of power systems with nuclear injection; 5.1 - Preliminaries in making power decision; 5.2 - Applications of decision models of sustainable power systems with nuclear injection; 5.3 - Re-engineering of power decision in the frame of maximal utility theory. The successful application of re-engineering concept is based on knowledge and managing capacity of design leadership and its ability of dealing the error generating sources. The main stages of implementing successfully the re-engineering are: - Replacing the pollution processes instead of adjusting measures; - Raising the designer responsibility by radical innovation of processes' architecture; - Re-designing the processes by basic changes at the level of the management functions and structures; - Raising the personnel professionalism by motivation as optimal way of improving the workers mentalities; - Accurate definition of objectives in the frame of re-engineering program; - Application of re-engineering in industrial units starting from the management level; - Selecting as general

  17. Contingency Management and deliberative decision-making processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Regier

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Contingency Management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of Contingency Management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that Contingency Management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by Contingency Management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

  18. Contingency Management and Deliberative Decision-Making Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Paul S; Redish, A David

    2015-01-01

    Contingency management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of contingency management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that contingency management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by contingency management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

  19. Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

    2017-09-05

    Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

  20. Scoping Summary Report: Development of Lower Basin Shortage Guidelines and Coordinated Management Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Particularly Under Low Reservoir Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation

    2006-01-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) acting on behalf of the Secretary of the Department of the Interior (Secretary) proposes to take action to adopt specific Colorado River Lower Basin shortage guidelines and coordinated reservoir management strategies to address operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, particularly under low reservoir conditions. This proposed Action will provide a greater degree of certainty to all water users and managers in the Colorado River Basin by providing more d...

  1. Technology strategy for integrated operations and real time reservoir management; Technology Target Areas; TTA5 - Integrated operations and RTRM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2007-07-01

    In Norway Integrated Operations (IO) is a concept which in the first phase (G1) has been used to describe how to integrate processes and people onshore and offshore using ICT solutions and facilities that improve onshore's ability to support offshore operationally. The second generation (G2) Integrated Operations aims to help operators utilize vendors' core competencies and services more efficiently. Utilizing digital services and vendor products, operators will be able to update reservoir models, drilling targets and well trajectories as wells are drilled, manage well completions remotely, optimize production from reservoir to export lines, and implement condition-based maintenance concepts. The total impact on production, recovery rates, costs and safety will be profound. When the international petroleum business moves to the Arctic region the setting is very different from what is the case on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and new challenges will arise. The Norwegian Ministry of Environment has recently issued an Integrated Management Plan for the Barents Sea where one focus is on 'Monitoring of the Marine Environment in the North'. The Government aims to establish a new and more coordinated system for monitoring the marine ecosystems in the north. A representative group consisting of the major Operators, the Service Industry, Academia and the Authorities have developed the enclosed strategy for the OG21 Integrated Operations and Real Time Reservoir Management (IO and RTRM) Technology Target Area (TTA). Major technology and work process research and development gaps have been identified in several areas: Bandwidth down-hole to surface; Sensor development including Nano-technology; Cross discipline use of Visualisation, Simulation and model development particularly in Drilling and Reservoir management areas; Software development in terms of data handling, model updating and calculation speed; Enabling reliable and robust communications particularly for

  2. Technology strategy for integrated operations and real time reservoir management; Technology Target Areas; TTA5 - Integrated operations and RTRM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2007-07-01

    In Norway Integrated Operations (IO) is a concept which in the first phase (G1) has been used to describe how to integrate processes and people onshore and offshore using ICT solutions and facilities that improve onshore's ability to support offshore operationally. The second generation (G2) Integrated Operations aims to help operators utilize vendors' core competencies and services more efficiently. Utilizing digital services and vendor products, operators will be able to update reservoir models, drilling targets and well trajectories as wells are drilled, manage well completions remotely, optimize production from reservoir to export lines, and implement condition-based maintenance concepts. The total impact on production, recovery rates, costs and safety will be profound. When the international petroleum business moves to the Arctic region the setting is very different from what is the case on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and new challenges will arise. The Norwegian Ministry of Environment has recently issued an Integrated Management Plan for the Barents Sea where one focus is on 'Monitoring of the Marine Environment in the North'. The Government aims to establish a new and more coordinated system for monitoring the marine ecosystems in the north. A representative group consisting of the major Operators, the Service Industry, Academia and the Authorities have developed the enclosed strategy for the OG21 Integrated Operations and Real Time Reservoir Management (IO and RTRM) Technology Target Area (TTA). Major technology and work process research and development gaps have been identified in several areas: Bandwidth down-hole to surface; Sensor development including Nano-technology; Cross discipline use of Visualisation, Simulation and model development particularly in Drilling and Reservoir management areas; Software development in terms of data handling, model updating and calculation speed; Enabling reliable and robust communications

  3. Developing a decision support system to meet nurse managers' information needs for effective resource management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruland, C M

    2001-01-01

    This article describes the development of a decision support system called CLASSICA, which assists nurse managers in financial management, resource allocation, activity planning, and quality control. CLASSICA integrates information about patient flow and activity, staffing, and the cost of nursing care at the nursing-unit level. The system provides assistance in planning activities, balancing the budget, and identifying barriers to unsatisfactory resource management. In addition, CLASSICA contains forecasting and simulation options to analyze the influence of factors that affect nursing costs. This article describes the system's development process steps to tailor it to the needs of nurse managers and their existing work practices. Nurse managers actively participated in defining their tasks and responsibilities; identified barriers and difficulties in managing these tasks; defined information needs, data input, and output and interface requirements; and identified expected benefits. Clear communication of project goals, strong user involvement, and purposeful benefit planning was used to achieve the goals for CLASSICA: (1) to provide essential information and decision support for effective financial management, resource allocation, activity planning, and staffing; (2) to improve nurse managers' competence in financial management and decision making; (3) to improve cost containment; and (4) to provide a helpful and easy to use tool for decision support.

  4. Managing hydroclimatological risk to water supply with option contracts and reservoir index insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Casey; Carriquiry, Miguel

    2007-11-01

    This paper explores the performance of a system of economic instruments designed to facilitate the reduction of hydroclimatologic variability-induced impacts on stakeholders of shared water supply. The system is composed of bulk water option contracts between urban water suppliers and agricultural users and insurance indexed on reservoir inflows. The insurance is designed to cover the financial needs of the water supplier in situations where the option is likely to be exercised. Insurance provides the irregularly needed funds for exercising the water options. The combined option contract - reservoir index insurance system creates risk sharing between sectors that is currently lacking in many shared water situations. Contracts are designed for a shared agriculture - urban water system in Metro Manila, Philippines, using optimization and Monte Carlo analysis. Observed reservoir inflows are used to simulate contract performance. Results indicate the option - insurance design effectively smooths water supply costs of hydrologic variability for both agriculture and urban water.

  5. Artificial intelligence based decision support for trumpeter swan management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.

    2002-01-01

    The number of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) breeding in the Tri-State area where Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming come together has declined to just a few hundred pairs. However, these birds are part of the Rocky Mountain Population which additionally has over 3,500 birds breeding in Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and Yukon Territory. To a large degree, these birds seem to have abandoned traditional migratory pathways in the flyway. Waterfowl managers have been interested in decision support tools that would help them explore simulated management scenarios in their quest towards reaching population recovery and the reestablishment of traditional migratory pathways. I have developed a decision support system to assist biologists with such management, especially related to wetland ecology. Decision support systems use a combination of models, analytical techniques, and information retrieval to help develop and evaluate appropriate alternatives. Swan management is a domain that is ecologically complex, and this complexity is compounded by spatial and temporal issues. As such, swan management is an inherently distributed problem. Therefore, the ecological context for modeling swan movements in response to management actions was built as a multiagent system of interacting intelligent agents that implements a queuing model representing swan migration. These agents accessed ecological knowledge about swans, their habitats, and flyway management principles from three independent expert systems. The agents were autonomous, had some sensory capability, and could respond to changing conditions. A key problem when developing ecological decision support systems is empirically determining that the recommendations provided are valid. Because Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans have been surveyed for a long period of time, I was able to compare simulated distributions provided by the system with actual field observations across 20 areas for the period 1988

  6. A statistical data assimilation method for seasonal streamflow forecasting to optimize hydropower reservoir management in data-scarce regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, R.; Mai, J.; Latraverse, M.; Tolson, B.

    2017-12-01

    developed to assess the performance of each individual process in the reservoir management chain. Here the proposed method was compared to the PF algorithm while keeping all other elements intact. Preliminary results are encouraging in terms of power generation and robustness for the proposed approach.

  7. Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

  8. Delft-FEWS:A Decision Making Platform to Intergrate Data, Model, Algorithm for Large-Scale River Basin Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T.; Welles, E.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we introduce a flood forecasting and decision making platform, named Delft-FEWS, which has been developed over years at the Delft Hydraulics and now at Deltares. The philosophy of Delft-FEWS is to provide water managers and operators with an open shell tool, which allows the integratation of a variety of hydrological, hydraulics, river routing, and reservoir models with hydrometerological forecasts data. Delft-FEWS serves as an powerful tool for both basin-scale and national-scale water resources management. The essential novelty of Delft-FEWS is to change the flood forecasting and water resources management from a single model or agency centric paradigm to a intergrated framework, in which different model, data, algorithm and stakeholders are strongly linked together. The paper will start with the challenges in water resources managment, and the concept and philosophy of Delft-FEWS. Then, the details of data handling and linkages of Delft-FEWS with different hydrological, hydraulic, and reservoir models, etc. Last, several cases studies and applications of Delft-FEWS will be demonstrated, including the National Weather Service and the Bonneville Power Administration in USA, and a national application in the water board in the Netherland.

  9. Managing health care decisions and improvement through simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Helena Hvitfeldt; Aronsson, Håkan; Keller, Christina; Lindblad, Staffan

    2011-01-01

    Simulation modeling is a way to test changes in a computerized environment to give ideas for improvements before implementation. This article reviews research literature on simulation modeling as support for health care decision making. The aim is to investigate the experience and potential value of such decision support and quality of articles retrieved. A literature search was conducted, and the selection criteria yielded 59 articles derived from diverse applications and methods. Most met the stated research-quality criteria. This review identified how simulation can facilitate decision making and that it may induce learning. Furthermore, simulation offers immediate feedback about proposed changes, allows analysis of scenarios, and promotes communication on building a shared system view and understanding of how a complex system works. However, only 14 of the 59 articles reported on implementation experiences, including how decision making was supported. On the basis of these articles, we proposed steps essential for the success of simulation projects, not just in the computer, but also in clinical reality. We also presented a novel concept combining simulation modeling with the established plan-do-study-act cycle for improvement. Future scientific inquiries concerning implementation, impact, and the value for health care management are needed to realize the full potential of simulation modeling.

  10. Towards decision support for waiting lists: an operations management view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vissers, J M; Van Der Bij, J D; Kusters, R J

    2001-06-01

    This paper considers the phenomenon of waiting lists in a healthcare setting, which is characterised by limitations on the national expenditure, to explore the potentials of an operations management perspective. A reference framework for waiting list management is described, distinguishing different levels of planning in healthcare--national, regional, hospital and process--that each contributes to the existence of waiting lists through managerial decision making. In addition, different underlying mechanisms in demand and supply are distinguished, which together explain the development of waiting lists. It is our contention that within this framework a series of situation specific models should be designed to support communication and decision making. This is illustrated by the modelling of the demand for cataract treatment in a regional setting in the south-eastern part of the Netherlands. An input-output model was developed to support decisions regarding waiting lists. The model projects the demand for treatment at a regional level and makes it possible to evaluate waiting list impacts for different scenarios to meet this demand.

  11. Navigating Sustainability Embeddedness in Management Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Le Roux

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability is an essential theme for business. In order to compete, strategies need to be improvised and efficient and effective decisions need to be made for improved sustainability performance. Despite management’s apparent knowledge of this, it appears that challenges persist with sustainability’s embeddedness in decision-making and its implementation in practice. In this study we propose a metaphor applying an integrative view of sustainability as support for management. We offer six antecedents of sustainability embeddedness in decision-making that contribute to building and confirming theory, and also provide a better understanding of current practice around sustainability embeddedness so that strategies can be developed for improved sustainability performance. Employees on all management levels in a stock exchange listed company provided rich empirical data for the study. Through the analysis of data in a case study, antecedents were inductively identified, conceptualized, and presented as using descriptive labels, namely: A True North Destination—a vision of sustainability embeddedness; Mountains—three obstacles; Fog—confusion and complexity; Myopia—shortsightedness; Navigation Necessities—requirements for the journey; and finally, the Chosen Team—selected stakeholders. Sustainability embeddedness was found to be dependent on leadership, the strategy message and structures, performance measures, and policies that support a unified culture for sustainability embeddedness.

  12. Development of the decision make supporting system on incident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasamatsu, Mizuki; Hanada, Satoshi; Noda, Eisuke

    2017-01-01

    Decision Make Supporting System is designed to support appropriate decision made by top management in the nuclear severe conditions. With crisis response in nuclear power plant (NPP), information entanglement between sites and control centers during intense situations interfere with prompt and accurate decision making. This research started with that kind of background. In order to solve the issue of the information entanglement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Inc. (MHI) carried out the development of the Decision Make Supporting System and the system applies the technology combining the human factors engineering (HFE) and information and communication technology (ICT). During the crisis response, various commands, reactions and communications in a human system need to be managed. Therefore, the combined HFE method including detailed task analysis, user experience (UX), graphic user interface (GUI) and related human-system interface (HSI) design method is applied to the design of the system. These design results systematize the functions that prevent interference with decision-making in the headquarters for incident management. This new solution as a system enhances the safety improvement of the NPP and contributes to develop the skills and abilities of the resources in the NPP. The system has three key features for supporting emergency situations: 'understanding the situation', 'planning the next action', and 'managing resources'. The system helps commanders and responders to grasp the whole situation and allows them to share information in real time to get a whole picture, and the system accumulates the data of the past events in the chronological order to understand correctly how they happened and plan the next action by using a knowledge database that MHI has been developed. If the unexpected event happens which are not in the incident scenario, the system provides support to formulate alternative strategies and measures. With this

  13. Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Freshwater Resource Management in Southwestern Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, C.; Baroud, H.; Hornberger, G. M.

    2016-12-01

    Freshwater resources in coastal Bangladesh fluctuate with extreme periods of shortage and abundance. Bangladeshis have adapted to these alternating periods but are still plagued with scarce drinking water resources due to pond water pathogens, salinity of groundwater, and arsenic contamination. The success of attempts to correct the problem of unsafe drinking water have varied across the southern Bangladesh as a result of physical and social factors. We use a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to explore the various physical and social factors that influence decisions about freshwater technologies and management schemes in southern Bangladesh. To determine the best freshwater technologies and management schemes, we examine four alternatives, including managed aquifer recharge (MAR), pond sand filter (PSF), rain water harvesting (RWH), and tubewells (TW). Criteria are grouped into four categories (environmental, technical, social, and economic) and weighting of social factors will be determined by community surveys, non-governmental organizations (NGO) opinions, and academic interviews. Social data include regional water quality perceptions, perceptions of management/technology success, MAR community surveys, and interviews with NGO partners. Environmental and technical feasibility factors are determined from regional water quality data, geospatial information, land use/land change, and regional stratigraphy. Survey data suggest a wide range of criteria based on location and stakeholder perception. MAR and PSF technologies likely have the greatest environmental and technical potential for success but are highly influenced by community dynamics, individual perspective, and NGO involvement. RWH solutions are used frequently and are successful at reducing the water security threats of contamination by pathogens, arsenic, and salts. This MCDA informs us of community and stakeholder water resource decisions, specifically related to their objectives and preferences.

  14. Fish community and fisheries management of Brno Reservoir following revitalisation measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jurajda, Pavel; Adámek, Zdeněk; Valová, Zdenka; Janáč, Michal; Roche, Kevin Francis

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 64, č. 2 (2015), s. 112-122 ISSN 0139-7893 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : biomanipulation * recreational reservoir * eutrophication Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.592, year: 2015

  15. Bring Your Own Device and Nurse Managers' Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Karen; Borycki, Elizabeth; Courtney, Karen L

    2017-02-01

    The Bring Your Own Device phenomenon is important in the healthcare environment because this trend is changing the workplace in healthcare organizations, such as British Columbia. At present, there is little research that exists in Canada to provide a distinct understanding of the complexities and difficulties unique to this phenomenon within the nursing practice. This study focused on the experiences and perceptions of nurse managers regarding how they make decisions on the use of personal handheld devices in the workplace. Telephone interviews (N = 10) and qualitative descriptive analysis were used. Four major themes emerged: (1) management perspective, (2) opportunities, (3) disadvantages, and (4) solutions. Nurse managers and other executives in healthcare organizations and health information technology departments need to be aware of the practice and organizational implications of the Bring Your Own Device movement.

  16. Conceptualization of a Collaborative Decision Making for Flood Disaster Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nur Aishah Zubir, Siti; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Ghazali, Azrul; Hakimie, Hazlinda; Razak, Normy Norfiza Abdul; Aziz Mat Isa, Abdul; Hasini, Hasril; Sahari, Khairul Salleh Mohamed; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Sabri Muda, Rahsidi; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah; Basri, Hidayah; Tukiman, Izawati

    2016-03-01

    Flooding is the utmost major natural hazard in Malaysia in terms of populations affected, frequency, area extent, flood duration and social economic damage. The recent flood devastation towards the end of 2014 witnessed almost 250,000 people being displaced from eight states in Peninsular Malaysia. The affected victims required evacuation within a short period of time to the designated evacuation centres. An effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life-saving. Effective flood disaster management requires collective and cooperative emergency teamwork from various government agencies. Intergovernmental collaborations among government agencies at different levels have become part of flood disaster management due to the need for sharing resources and coordinating efforts. Collaborative decision making during disaster is an integral element in providing prompt and effective response for evacuating the victims.

  17. Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management: decision making at the intersection of science, politics, and society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaacs, T. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States)

    2005-07-01

    This paper outlines the science, politics and the decision making process in implementing a nuclear fuel management program. It discusses the issues in the light of Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management. The paper discusses the technical as well as the institutional challenge in nuclear waste management. It discusses some of the key elements of the Canadian approach and concludes with some key recommendation in the way forward.

  18. ENERGY AWARE NETWORK: BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS BASED DECISION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Chaudhari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Network Management System (NMS plays a very important role in managing an ever-evolving telecommunication network. Generally an NMS monitors & maintains the health of network elements. The growing size of the network warrants extra functionalities from the NMS. An NMS provides all kinds of information about networks which can be used for other purposes apart from monitoring & maintaining networks like improving QoS & saving energy in the network. In this paper, we add another dimension to NMS services, namely, making an NMS energy aware. We propose a Decision Management System (DMS framework which uses a machine learning technique called Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN, to make the NMS energy aware. The DMS is capable of analysing and making control decisions based on network traffic. We factor in the cost of rerouting and power saving per port. Simulations are performed on standard network topologies, namely, ARPANet and IndiaNet. It is found that ~2.5-6.5% power can be saved.

  19. Optimal Decision-making Model of Integrated Water Resources Management - A Case of Hsinchu Water Resources Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    The public use water in Hsinchu are mainly supplied from Baoshan Reservoir, Second Baoshan Reservoir, Yongheshan Reservoir and Longen Weir. However, the increasing water demand, caused by development of the Hsinchu Science and Industrial Park, results in supply stable water getting more difficult. For stabilize water supply in Hsinchu, the study applies long-term and short-term plans to fulfill the water shortage. Developing an efficient methodology to define a cost-effective action portfolio is an important task. Hence, the study develops a novel decision model, the Stochastic Programming with Recourse Decision Model (SPRDM), to estimate a cost-effective action portfolio. The first-stage of SPRDM determine the long-term action portfolio and the portfolio accompany recourse information (the probability for water shortage event). The second-stage of SPRDM optimize the cost-effective action portfolio in response to the recourse information. In order to consider the uncertainty of reservoir sediment and demand growth, the study set 9 scenarios comprise optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic reservoir sediment and demand growth. The results show the optimal action portfolio consist of FengTain Lake and Panlon Weir, Hsinchu Desalination Plant, Domestic and Industrial Water long-term plans, and Emergency Backup Well, Irrigation Water Transference, Preliminary Water Rationing, Advanced Water Rationing and Water Transport from Other Districts short-term plans. The minimum expected cost of optimal action portfolio is NT$1.1002 billion. The results can be used as a reference for decision making because the results have considered the uncertainty of varied hydrology, reservoir sediment, and water demand growth.

  20. Evaluation of Management of Water Releases for Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana, 1983-1986, Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spoon, Ronald L. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Missoula, MT)

    1987-06-01

    This study was initiated in July, 1983 to develop a water management plan for the release of water purchased from Painted Rocks Reservoir. Releases were designed to provide optimum benefits to the Bitterroot River fishery. Fisheries, habitat, and stream flow information was gathered to evaluate the effectiveness of these supplemental releases in improving trout populations in the Bitterroot River. The study was part of the Northwest Power Planning Council's Fish and Wildlife Program and was funded by the Bonneville Power Administration. This report presents data collected from 1983 through 1986.

  1. The costs of uncoordinated infrastructure management in multi-reservoir river basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeuland, Marc; Baker, Justin; Bartlett, Ryan; Lacombe, Guillaume

    2014-01-01

    Though there are surprisingly few estimates of the economic benefits of coordinated infrastructure development and operations in international river basins, there is a widespread belief that improved cooperation is beneficial for managing water scarcity and variability. Hydro-economic optimization models are commonly-used for identifying efficient allocation of water across time and space, but such models typically assume full coordination. In the real world, investment and operational decisions for specific projects are often made without full consideration of potential downstream impacts. This paper describes a tractable methodology for evaluating the economic benefits of infrastructure coordination. We demonstrate its application over a range of water availability scenarios in a catchment of the Mekong located in Lao PDR, the Nam Ngum River Basin. Results from this basin suggest that coordination improves system net benefits from irrigation and hydropower by approximately 3–12% (or US$12-53 million/yr) assuming moderate levels of flood control, and that the magnitude of coordination benefits generally increases with the level of water availability and with inflow variability. Similar analyses would be useful for developing a systematic understanding of the factors that increase the costs of non-cooperation in river basin systems worldwide, and would likely help to improve targeting of efforts to stimulate complicated negotiations over water resources. (paper)

  2. Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, Bruce; Ford, David N.; Horton, Radley M.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

  3. Robust Energy Hub Management Using Information Gap Decision Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust optimization framework for energy hub management. It is well known that the operation of energy systems can be negatively affected by uncertain parameters, such as stochastic load demand or generation. In this regard, it is of high significance to propose efficient...... tools in order to deal with uncertainties and to provide reliable operating conditions. On a broader scale, an energy hub includes diverse energy sources for supplying both electrical load and heating/cooling demands with stochastic behaviors. Therefore, this paper utilizes the Information Decision Gap...

  4. Enterprise identity management towards an investment decision support approach

    CERN Document Server

    Royer, Denis

    2013-01-01

    ?The introduction of Enterprise Identity Management Systems (EIdMS) in organizations even beyond the purely technological level is a costly and challenging endeavor. However, for decision makers it seems difficult to fully understand the impacts and opportunities arising from the introduction of EIdMS. This book explores the relevant aspects for an ex-ante evaluation of EIdMS. Therefore it examines this domain by employing a qualitative expert interview study to better understand the nature of EIdMS, as they are situated between security and productive IT systems. To this regard, the focus is

  5. A Knowledge Management and Decision Support Model for Enterprises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Ribino

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel knowledge management system (KMS for enterprises. Our system exploits two different approaches for knowledge representation and reasoning: a document-based approach based on data-driven creation of a semantic space and an ontology-based model. Furthermore, we provide an expert system capable of supporting the enterprise decisional processes and a semantic engine which performs intelligent search on the enterprise knowledge bases. The decision support process exploits the Bayesian networks model to improve business planning process when performed under uncertainty.

  6. Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sparling, D.W.

    1988-01-01

    A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

  7. Decision making and senior management: the implementation of change projects covering clinical management in SUS hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, José Márcio da Cunha; Gomes, Romeu

    2016-08-01

    This paper analyses the decision making process for senior management in public hospitals that are a part of the National Health Service in Brazil (hereafter SUS) in relation to projects aimed at changing clinical management. The methodological design of this study is qualitative in nature taking a hermeneutics-dialectics perspective in terms of results. Hospital directors noted that clinical management projects changed the state of hospitals through: improving their organizations, mobilizing their staff in order to increase a sense of order and systemizing actions and available resources. Technical rationality was the principal basis used in the decision making process for managers. Due to the reality of many hospitals having fragmented organizations, this fact impeded the use of aspects related to rationality, such as economic and financial factors in the decision making process. The incremental model and general politics also play a role in this area. We concluded that the decision making process embraces a large array of factors including rational aspects such as the use of management techniques and the ability to analyze, interpret and summarize. It also incorporates subjective elements such as how to select values and dealing with people's working experiences. We recognized that management problems are wide in scope, ambiguous, complex and do not come with a lot of structure in practice.

  8. Modelling of Reservoir Operations using Fuzzy Logic and ANNs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Giesen, N.; Coerver, B.; Rutten, M.

    2015-12-01

    Today, almost 40.000 large reservoirs, containing approximately 6.000 km3 of water and inundating an area of almost 400.000 km2, can be found on earth. Since these reservoirs have a storage capacity of almost one-sixth of the global annual river discharge they have a large impact on the timing, volume and peaks of river discharges. Global Hydrological Models (GHM) are thus significantly influenced by these anthropogenic changes in river flows. We developed a parametrically parsimonious method to extract operational rules based on historical reservoir storage and inflow time-series. Managing a reservoir is an imprecise and vague undertaking. Operators always face uncertainties about inflows, evaporation, seepage losses and various water demands to be met. They often base their decisions on experience and on available information, like reservoir storage and the previous periods inflow. We modeled this decision-making process through a combination of fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks in an Adaptive-Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In a sensitivity analysis, we compared results for reservoirs in Vietnam, Central Asia and the USA. ANFIS can indeed capture reservoirs operations adequately when fed with a historical monthly time-series of inflows and storage. It was shown that using ANFIS, operational rules of existing reservoirs can be derived without much prior knowledge about the reservoirs. Their validity was tested by comparing actual and simulated releases with each other. For the eleven reservoirs modelled, the normalised outflow, , was predicted with a MSE of 0.002 to 0.044. The rules can be incorporated into GHMs. After a network for a specific reservoir has been trained, the inflow calculated by the hydrological model can be combined with the release and initial storage to calculate the storage for the next time-step using a mass balance. Subsequently, the release can be predicted one time-step ahead using the inflow and storage.

  9. Nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirey, Maria R; Ebright, Patricia R; McDaniel, Anna M

    2013-01-01

      The present study provides insight into nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.   Little is known about nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. Because nurse manager decisions have the potential to impact patient care quality and safety, understanding their decision-making processes is useful for designing supportive interventions.   This qualitative descriptive study interviewed 21 nurse managers from three hospitals to answer the research question: What decision-making processes do nurse managers utilize to address stressful situations in their nurse manager role? Face-to-face interviews incorporating components of the Critical Decision Method illuminated expert-novice practice differences. Content analysis identified one major theme and three sub-themes.   The present study produced a cognitive model that guides nurse manager decision-making related to stressful situations. Experience in the role, organizational context and situation factors influenced nurse manager cognitive decision-making processes.   Study findings suggest that chronic exposure to stress and work complexity negatively affects nurse manager health and their decision-making processes potentially threatening individual, patient and organizational outcomes.   Cognitive decision-making varies based on nurse manager experience and these differences have coaching and mentoring implications. This present study contributes a current understanding of nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Clinical Decision Support Knowledge Management: Strategies for Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalifa, Mohamed; Alswailem, Osama

    2015-01-01

    Clinical Decision Support Systems have been shown to increase quality of care, patient safety, improve adherence to guidelines for prevention and treatment, and avoid medication errors. Such systems depend mainly on two types of content; the clinical information related to patients and the medical knowledge related to the specialty that informs the system rules and alerts. At King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Saudi Arabia, the Health Information Technology Affairs worked on identifying best strategies and recommendations for successful CDSS knowledge management. A review of literature was conducted to identify main areas of challenges and factors of success. A qualitative survey was used over six months' duration to collect opinions, experiences and suggestions from both IT and healthcare professionals. Recommendations were categorized into ten main topics that should be addressed during the development and implementation of CDSS knowledge management tools in the hospital.

  11. Integrating geographically isolated wetlands into land management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E.; Creed, Irena F.; Ali, Genevieve; Basu, Nandita; Neff, Brian; Rains, Mark C.; McLaughlin, Daniel L.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Ameli, Ali A.; Christensen, Jay R.; Evenson, Grey R.; Jones, Charles N.; Lane, Charles R.; Lang, Megan

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands across the globe provide extensive ecosystem services. However, many wetlands – especially those surrounded by uplands, often referred to as geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) – remain poorly protected. Protection and restoration of wetlands frequently requires information on their hydrologic connectivity to other surface waters, and their cumulative watershed‐scale effects. The integration of measurements and models can supply this information. However, the types of measurements and models that should be integrated are dependent on management questions and information compatibility. We summarize the importance of GIWs in watersheds and discuss what wetland connectivity means in both science and management contexts. We then describe the latest tools available to quantify GIW connectivity and explore crucial next steps to enhancing and integrating such tools. These advancements will ensure that appropriate tools are used in GIW decision making and maintaining the important ecosystem services that these wetlands support.

  12. Optical Coherence Tomography-Guided Decisions in Retinoblastoma Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliman, Sameh E; VandenHoven, Cynthia; MacKeen, Leslie D; Héon, Elise; Gallie, Brenda L

    2017-06-01

    Assess the role of handheld optical coherence tomography (OCT) in guiding management decisions during diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up of eyes affected by retinoblastoma. Retrospective, noncomparative, single-institution case series. All children newly diagnosed with retinoblastoma from January 2011 to December 2015 who had an OCT session during their active treatment at The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) in Toronto, Canada. The OCT sessions for fellow eyes of unilateral retinoblastoma without any suspicious lesion and those performed more than 6 months after the last treatment were excluded. Data collected included age at presentation, sex, family history, RB1 mutation status, 8th edition TNMH cancer staging and International Intraocular Retinoblastoma Classification (IIRC), and number of OCT sessions per eye. Details of each session were scored for indication-related details (informative or not) and assessed for guidance (directive or not), diagnosis (staging changed, new tumors found or excluded), treatment (modified, stopped, or modality shifted), or follow-up modified. Frequency of OCT-guided management decisions, stratified by indication and type of guidance (confirmatory vs. influential). Sixty-three eyes of 44 children had 339 OCT sessions over the course of clinical management (median number of OCT scans per eye, 5; range, 1-15). The age at presentation and presence of a heritable RB1 mutation significantly correlated with an increased number of OCT sessions. Indications included evaluation of post-treatment scar (55%) or fovea (16%), and posterior pole scanning for new tumors (11%). Of all sessions, 92% (312/339) were informative; 19 of 27 noninformative sessions had large, elevated lesions; of these, 14 of 19 were T2a or T2b (IIRC group C or D) eyes. In 94% (293/312) of the informative sessions, OCT directed treatment decisions (58%), diagnosis (16%), and follow-up (26%). Optical coherence tomography influenced and changed management from pre

  13. Knowledge Management Portal: A Simplified Model to Help Decision Makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, I.; Hernandes Tabares, R.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present a simplified model that could help the nuclear industry to keep the expertise of safeguards professionals in touch with the state of the art, and also to have available information in the Portal of Knowledge Management. It can also provide indicators and general data for decision makers. Authors have developed the concept based on their own experience through systems running in hydroelectric and gas fired plants, and one exclusive system that manage all courses in one University. It is under development a Portal of Knowledge Management for NPP dealing with information obtained of Strategic Plans, Budgets and Economics, Operation Performance, Maintenance and Surveillance Plans, Training and Education Programs, QA Programs, Operational Experience, Safety Culture, and Engineering of Human Factors. This model will provide indicators for decision makers. Training and education module is prepared according to profile of each individual and his attributes, tasks and capabilities, and training and education programmes. The system could apply self-assessment questionnaires; immersive learning using media (video) classes, and test applications using questions randomly selected from data bank, as well as could make applications to certificate people. All these data are analyzed and generate indicators about strongest and weakness points. Managers could have indication of individual's deficiency even though in training programmes on a real time basis. Another tool that could be applied to the model is the remote operation of supervision equipment. The model is developed using web-based tools, like ASP.NET encrypted by 128 bits, and web site https. Finally, it is important to stress that the model can be customized according to industry preference. (author)

  14. How Managers' everyday decisions create or destroy your company's strategy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Joseph L; Gilbert, Clark G

    2007-02-01

    Senior executives have long been frustrated by the disconnection between the plans and strategies they devise and the actual behavior of the managers throughout the company. This article approaches the problem from the ground up, recognizing that every time a manager allocates resources, that decision moves the company either into or out of alignment with its announced strategy. A well-known story--Intel's exit from the memory business--illustrates this point. When discussing what businesses Intel should be in, Andy Grove asked Gordon Moore what they would do if Intel were a company that they had just acquired. When Moore answered, "Get out of memory," they decided to do just that. It turned out, though, that Intel's revenues from memory were by this time only 4% of total sales. Intel's lower-level managers had already exited the business. What Intel hadn't done was to shut down the flow of research funding into memory (which was still eating up one-third of all research expenditures); nor had the company announced its exit to the outside world. Because divisional and operating managers-as well as customers and capital markets-have such a powerful impact on the realized strategy of the firm, senior management might consider focusing less on the company's formal strategy and more on the processes by which the company allocates resources. Top managers must know the track record of the people who are making resource allocation proposals; recognize the strategic issues at stake; reach down to operational managers to work across division lines; frame resource questions to reflect the corporate perspective, especially when large sums of money are involved and conditions are highly uncertain; and create a new context that allows top executives to circumvent the regular resource allocation process when necessary.

  15. Decision Support Model for Optimal Management of Coastal Gate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditthakit, Pakorn; Chittaladakorn, Suwatana

    2010-05-01

    The coastal areas are intensely settled by human beings owing to their fertility of natural resources. However, at present those areas are facing with water scarcity problems: inadequate water and poor water quality as a result of saltwater intrusion and inappropriate land-use management. To solve these problems, several measures have been exploited. The coastal gate construction is a structural measure widely performed in several countries. This manner requires the plan for suitably operating coastal gates. Coastal gate operation is a complicated task and usually concerns with the management of multiple purposes, which are generally conflicted one another. This paper delineates the methodology and used theories for developing decision support modeling for coastal gate operation scheduling. The developed model was based on coupling simulation and optimization model. The weighting optimization technique based on Differential Evolution (DE) was selected herein for solving multiple objective problems. The hydrodynamic and water quality models were repeatedly invoked during searching the optimal gate operations. In addition, two forecasting models:- Auto Regressive model (AR model) and Harmonic Analysis model (HA model) were applied for forecasting water levels and tide levels, respectively. To demonstrate the applicability of the developed model, it was applied to plan the operations for hypothetical system of Pak Phanang coastal gate system, located in Nakhon Si Thammarat province, southern part of Thailand. It was found that the proposed model could satisfyingly assist decision-makers for operating coastal gates under various environmental, ecological and hydraulic conditions.

  16. The Influnce of Metacognition on Managerial Hiring Decision Making: Implications for Management Development

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Angela Ewell

    1998-01-01

    THE INFLUENCE OF METACOGNITION ON MANAGERIAL HIRING DECISION MAKING: IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT by Angela Ewell Kumar (ABSTRACT) Cognitive processing has a primary role in decision making. In addition, metacognition, the regulation and knowledge of cognition, affects decision making in a consistent and predictable way. Novices explain situations in a simple way. Novices are more likely to make inappropriate decisions. Research suggests that train...

  17. Integrated Services Management System (ISMS): A management and decision making tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barber, D.S.; Brockman, D.L.; Buxton, L.D. [and others

    1995-10-01

    This document provides information concerning the Integrated Services Management System (ISMS) that was developed for the Laboratories Services Division during the period February 1994 through May 1995. ISMS was developed as a formal method for centralized management of programs within the Division. With minor modifications, this system can be adapted for management of all overhead functions at SNL or for sector level program management. Included in this document are the reasons for the creation of this system as well as the resulting benefits. The ISMS consists of six interlinked processes; Issues Management, Task/Activity Planning, Work Decision, Commitment Management, Process/Project Management, and Performance Assessment. Those processes are described in detail within this document. Additionally, lessons learned and suggestions for future improvements are indicated.

  18. Time for Competent Decisions on Radioactive Waste Management in Croatia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knapp, A.; Levanat, I.; Saponja-Milutinovic, D.; Lokner, V.

    2013-01-01

    After a couple of decades of hesitant and indecisive consultations between Slovenia and Croatia on the management options for the Krsko nuclear power plant (KNPP) waste, time for decision making has approached. Council Directive 2011/70/Euratom requires that both countries adopt specific national programs for radioactive waste and spent fuel management before August 23, 2015. In the nineties, Croatia undertook a campaign aimed at constructing a low and intermediate level waste (LILW) repository. The region of Trgovska gora was designated as the potential repository site, and a preliminary safety assessment indicated that it was suitable for a near surface vault-type disposal facility - but then the campaign was stopped. Soon after, Slovenia intensified preparations for a LILW repository on its territory, and Krsko (near the NPP) was selected for disposal site. An exotic and expensive silo-type disposal concept was adopted, disposal units immersed into the groundwater flowing towards the nearby Sava river. The project continues. Presently, however, Croatia does not know whether it will be allowed to dispose of its share of LILW from the KNPP into the Slovenian repository, nor under what conditions. Croatia does not know whether it will have to build its own repository, nor whether such solution would be financially preferable - although Croatia may have to begin transferring its half of the KNPP waste to its territory in less than ten years. It is therefore high time for Croatia to resume intensive preparations for the establishment of a LILW repository on Trgovska gora - regardless of whether or not it would actually be constructed. Without such preparations, and the insights gained, Croatia will not be capable of making competent decisions about its national interests regarding the KNPP waste management, nor will it be prepared for competent and convincing negotiations with Slovenia about the options for sharing the Krsko facility.(author)

  19. Assessing environmental conditions of Antarctic footpaths to support management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedo, Pablo; Benayas, Javier; Cajiao, Daniela; Albertos, Belén; Lara, Francisco; Pertierra, Luis R; Andrés-Abellán, Manuela; Wic, Consuelo; Luciáñez, Maria José; Enríquez, Natalia; Justel, Ana; Reck, Günther K

    2016-07-15

    Thousands of tourists visit certain Antarctic sites each year, generating a wide variety of environmental impacts. Scientific knowledge of human activities and their impacts can help in the effective design of management measures and impact mitigation. We present a case study from Barrientos Island in which a management measure was originally put in place with the goal of minimizing environmental impacts but resulted in new undesired impacts. Two alternative footpaths used by tourist groups were compared. Both affected extensive moss carpets that cover the middle part of the island and that are very vulnerable to trampling. The first path has been used by tourists and scientists since over a decade and is a marked route that is clearly visible. The second one was created more recently. Several physical and biological indicators were measured in order to assess the environmental conditions for both paths. Some physical variables related to human impact were lower for the first path (e.g. soil penetration resistance and secondary treads), while other biochemical and microbiological variables were higher for the second path (e.g. β-glucosidase and phosphatase activities, soil respiration). Moss communities located along the new path were also more diverse and sensitive to trampling. Soil biota (Collembola) was also more abundant and richer. These data indicate that the decision to adopt the second path did not lead to the reduction of environmental impacts as this path runs over a more vulnerable area with more outstanding biological features (e.g. microbiota activity, flora and soil fauna diversity). In addition, the adoption of a new route effectively doubles the human footprint on the island. We propose using only the original path that is less vulnerable to the impacts of trampling. Finally from this process, we identify several key issues that may be taken into account when carrying out impact assessment and environmental management decision-making in the

  20. Iowa pavement asset management decision-making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to : lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data...

  1. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Corps Water Management System (CWMS) Decision Support Modeling and Integration Use in the June 2007 Texas Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charley, W. J.; Luna, M.

    2007-12-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Corps Water Management System (CWMS) is a comprehensive data acquisition and hydrologic modeling system for short-term decision support of water control operations in real time. It encompasses data collection, validation and transformation, data storage, visualization, real time model simulation for decision-making support, and data dissemination. CWMS uses an Oracle database and Sun Solaris workstations for data processes, storage and the execution of models, with a client application (the Control and Visualization Interface, or CAVI) that can run on a Windows PC. CWMS was used by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) to make hydrologic forecasts of flows on the Lower Colorado River and operate reservoirs during the June 2007 event in Texas. The LCRA receives real-time observed gridded spatial rainfall data from OneRain, Inc. that which is a result of adjusting NexRad rainfall data with precipitation gages. This data is used, along with future precipitation estimates, for hydrologic forecasting by the rainfall-runoff modeling program HEC-HMS. Forecasted flows from HEC-HMS and combined with observed flows and reservoir information to simulate LCRA's reservoir operations and help engineers make release decisions based on the results. The river hydraulics program, HEC-RAS, computes river stages and water surface profiles for the computed flow. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain can be calculated from the HEC-RAS results using ArcInfo. By varying future precipitation and releases, engineers can evaluate different "What if?" scenarios. What was described as an "extraordinary cluster of thunderstorms" that stalled over Burnet and Llano counties in Texas on June 27, 2007, dropped 17 to 19 inches of rainfall over a 6-hour period. The storm was classified over a 500-year event and the resulting flow over some of the smaller tributaries as a 100-year or better. CWMS was used by LCRA for flood forecasting and

  3. Identification and assessment of potential water quality impact factors for drinking-water reservoirs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Qing; Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Lin, Yi; Li, Jun; Gan, Muye; Ma, Ligang; Hong, Yang

    2014-06-10

    Various reservoirs have been serving as the most important drinking water sources in Zhejiang Province, China, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and severe river pollution. Unfortunately, rapid urbanization and industrialization have been continuously challenging the water quality of the drinking-water reservoirs. The identification and assessment of potential impacts is indispensable in water resource management and protection. This study investigates the drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province to better understand the potential impact on water quality. Altogether seventy-three typical drinking reservoirs in Zhejiang Province encompassing various water storage levels were selected and evaluated. Using fifty-two reservoirs as training samples, the classification and regression tree (CART) method and sixteen comprehensive variables, including six sub-sets (land use, population, socio-economy, geographical features, inherent characteristics, and climate), were adopted to establish a decision-making model for identifying and assessing their potential impacts on drinking-water quality. The water quality class of the remaining twenty-one reservoirs was then predicted and tested based on the decision-making model, resulting in a water quality class attribution accuracy of 81.0%. Based on the decision rules and quantitative importance of the independent variables, industrial emissions was identified as the most important factor influencing the water quality of reservoirs; land use and human habitation also had a substantial impact on water quality. The results of this study provide insights into the factors impacting the water quality of reservoirs as well as basic information for protecting reservoir water resources.

  4. Development and commissioning of decision support tools for sewerage management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manic, G; Printemps, C; Zug, M; Lemoine, C

    2006-01-01

    Managing sewerage systems is a highly complex task due to the dynamic nature of the facilities. Their performance strongly depends on the know-how applied by the operators. In order to define optimal operational settings, two decision support tools based on mathematical models have been developed. Moreover, easy-to-use interfaces have been created as well, aiding operators who presumably do not have the necessary skills to use modelling software. The two developed programs simulate the behaviour of both wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and sewer network systems, respectively. They have essentially the same structure, including raw data management and statistical analysis, a simulation layer using the application programming interface of the applied software and a layer responsible for the representation of the obtained results. Four user modes are provided in the two software including the simulation of historical data using the applied and novel operational settings, as well as modes concerning prediction of possible operation periods and updates. Concerning the WWTP software, it was successfully installed in Nantes (France) in June 2004. Moreover, the one managing sewer networks has been deployed in Saint-Malo (France) in January 2005. This paper presents the structure of the developed software and the first results obtained during the commissioning phase.

  5. DECISIVE FACTORS OF TALENT MANAGEMENT IMPLEMENTATION IN CZECH ORGANISATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adéla Fajčíková

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The effort of every organisation is to have talented staff, and in the case that these employees are available in the organisation is to ensure they are motivated to stay in the organisation. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the influence of decisive factors on the implementation of activities relating to talent management and the approach of Czech organisations to this new trend as well. Data was obtained through questionnaire surveys in selected Czech organisations in 2014/2015 (n = 389, 2015/2016 (n = 402 and in 2016/2017 (n = 207. The results showed that the chances to implement talent management were significantly higher for organisations operating in national or international markets, organisations with more than 50 employees and organisations with a separate HR department, where this chance was even 4.1 times higher. Surveyed organisations use talent management the most often in the areas of employees´ recruitment, employees´ training and development, and their evaluation and remuneration.

  6. Managing costs, managing benefits: employer decisions in local health care markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, Jon B; Trude, Sally

    2003-02-01

    To better understand employer health benefit decision making, how employer health benefits strategies evolve over time, and the impact of employer decisions on local health care systems. Data were collected as part of the Community Tracking Study (CTS), a longitudinal analysis of health system change in 12 randomly selected communities. This is an observational study with data collection over a six-year period. The study used semistructured interviews with local respondents, combined with monitoring of local media, to track changes in health care systems over time and their impact on community residents. Interviewing began in 1996 and was carried out at two-year intervals, with a total of approximately 2,200 interviews. The interviews provided a variety of perspectives on employer decision making concerning health benefits; these perspectives were triangulated to reach conclusions. The tight labor market during the study period was the dominant consideration in employer decision making regarding health benefits. Employers, in managing employee compensation, made independent decisions in pursuit of individual goals, but these decisions were shaped by similar labor market conditions. As a result, within and across our study sites, employer decisions in aggregate had an important impact on local health care systems, although employers' more highly visible public efforts to bring about health system change often met with disappointing results. General economic conditions in the 1990s had an important impact on the configuration of local health systems through their effect on employer decision making regarding health benefits offered to employees, and the responses of health plans and providers to those decisions.

  7. Decision Assessment of Clearance Level on Radioactive Waste Management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zainus Salimin; Gunandjar

    2007-01-01

    Radioactive waste on the safe level activity containing very small radioactive material gives small radiology influence to the human, it is not necessary to control by regulatory body. The radioactive waste on the safe level activity is safe to release as the common waste. For exemption of the control, it is required the safe activity level limits in which the value of clearance level is fulfilled by regulatory body, however until now it is not decided yet. The exemption decision is obtained if its activity is lower than or same with clearance level based on the annual effective dose receiving by public on the value is lower than or same with 0,01 mSv. The exposure pathways of radioactive waste to the human have important role for determination of clearance level. The decision assessment of clearance level on the radioactive waste management has been done by analysis of radioactive exposure pathways to the human for activities of the disposal and the recycle of solid wastes, also the release of liquid and gas effluent. For solid waste disposal, the exposure pathway was evaluated since the transportation of packed waste from the treatment facility to the disposal facility and during its operation. Exposure pathways for solid waste recycle consist of the pathways for handling and transportation of cleared material to the recycling facility, the fabrication and the utilization of its product. Exposure pathways for liquid and gas releases occur since its releases to the environment up to the human (public) by specific traffic lane. (author)

  8. Rationales behind irrationality of decision making in groundwater quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronen, Daniel; Sorek, Shaul; Gilron, Jack

    2012-01-01

    This issue paper presents how certain policies regarding management of groundwater quality lead to unexpected and undesirable results, despite being backed by seemingly reasonable assumptions. This happened in part because the so-called reasonable decisions were not based on an integrative and quantitative methodology. The policies surveyed here are: (1) implementation of a program for aquifer restoration to pristine conditions followed, after failure, by leaving it to natural attenuation; (2) the "Forget About The Aquifer" (FATA) approach, while ignoring possible damage that contaminated groundwater can inflict on the other environmental systems; (3) groundwater recharge in municipal areas while neglecting the presence of contaminants in the unsaturated zone and conditions exerted by upper impervious surfaces; (4) the Soil Aquifer Treatment (SAT) practice considering aquifers to be "filters of infinite capacity"; and (5) focusing on well contamination vs. aquifer contamination to conveniently defer grappling with the problem of the aquifer as a whole. Possible reasons for the failure of these seemingly rational policies are: (1) the characteristic times of processes associated with groundwater that are usually orders of magnitude greater than the residence times of decision makers in their managerial position; (2) proliferation of improperly trained "groundwater experts" or policymakers with sectoral agendas alongside legitimate differences of opinion among groundwater scientists; (3) the neglect of the cyclic nature of natural phenomena; and (4) ignoring future long-term costs because of immediate costs. © 2011, The Author(s). Ground Water © 2011, National Ground Water Association.

  9. Architectural Decision Management for Digital Transformation of Products and Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Zimmermann

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The digitization of our society changes the way we live, work, learn, communicate, and collaborate. The Internet of Things, Enterprise Social Networks, Adaptive Case Management, Mobility systems, Analytics for Big Data, and Cloud services environments are emerging to support smart connected products and services and the digital transformation. Biological metaphors of living and adaptable ecosystems provide the logical foundation for self-optimizing and resilient run-time environments for intelligent business services and service-oriented enterprise architectures. Our aim is to support flexibility and agile transformations for both business domains and related information technology. The present research paper investigates mechanisms for decision analytics in the context of multi-perspective explorations of enterprise services and their digital enterprise architectures by extending original architecture reference models with state of art elements for agile architectural engineering for the digitization and collaborative architectural decision support. The paper’s context focuses on digital transformations of business and IT and integrates fundamental mappings between adaptable digital enterprise architectures and service-oriented information systems. We are putting a spotlight on the example domain – Internet of Things.

  10. Influence diagrams and decision trees for severe accident management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goetz, W.W.J.

    1996-09-01

    A review of relevant methodologies based on Influence Diagrams (IDs), Decision Trees (DTs), and Containment Event Trees (CETs) was conducted to assess the practicality of these methods for the selection of effective strategies for Severe Accident Management (SAM). The review included an evaluation of some software packages for these methods. The emphasis was on possible pitfalls of using IDs and on practical aspects, the latter by performance of a case study that was based on an existing Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The study showed that the use of a combined ID/DT model has advantages over CET models, in particular when conservatisms in the Level 2 PSA have been identified and replaced by fair assessments of the uncertainties involved. It is recommended to use ID/DT models complementary to CET models. (orig.).

  11. Phenology for science, resource management, decision making, and education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, V.P.; Weltzin, J.F.

    2011-01-01

    Fourth USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting and Stakeholders Workshop; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 21-22 September 2010; Phenology, the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle events, is rapidly emerging as a fundamental approach for understanding how ecological systems respond to environmental variation and climate change. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; http://www.usanpn.org) is a large-scale network of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, academic institutions, resource management agencies, and tribes. The network is dedicated to conducting and promoting repeated and integrated plant and animal phenological observations, identifying linkages with other relevant biological and physical data sources, and developing and distributing the tools to analyze these data at local to national scales. The primary goal of the USA-NPN is to improve the ability of decision makers to design strategies for climate adaptation.

  12. Influence diagrams and decision trees for severe accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goetz, W.W.J.; Seebregts, A.J.; Bedford, T.J.

    1996-08-01

    A review of relevent methodologies based on Influence Diagrams (IDs), Decision Trees (DTs), and Containment Event Trees (CETs) was conducted to assess the practicality of these methods for the selection of effective strategies for Severe Accident Management (SAM). The review included an evaluation of some software packages for these methods. The emphasis was on possible pitfalls of using IDs and on practical aspects, the latter by performance of a case study that was based on an existing Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The study showed that the use of a combined ID/DT model has advantages over CET models, in particular when conservatisms in the Level 2 PSA have been identified and replaced by fair assessments of the uncertainties involved. It is recommended to use ID/DT models as complementary to CET models. (orig.)

  13. The financial management as a tool for development investment decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damnjanović Radovan M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment decisions, which influence the investment of financial resources to achieve economic, non-economic, or of both objectives and effects in the future, the central subject of financial management. Using the methods of financial mathematics can predict the effects of the investment which is from the standpoint of efficiency ratings are expressed in the form of cash future income. Periods, the investments and the use of investment, may be the same or different lengths. From an economic standpoint it is desirable that the period of the investment is short, and the economic effects of the eyelids investments as long as possible. For an investment is said to be cost-effective or cost-effective if the current value of the investment is less than the present value of income from investments.

  14. Implications of caries diagnostic strategies for clinical management decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baelum, Vibeke; Hintze, Hanne; Wenzel, Ann

    2012-01-01

    -specificity) were calculated for each diagnostic strategy. RESULTS: Visual-tactile examination provided a true-positive rate of 34.2% and a false-positive rate of 1.5% for the detection of a cavity. The combination of a visual-tactile and a radiographic examination using the lesion in dentin threshold......OBJECTIVES: In clinical practice, a visual-tactile caries examination is frequently supplemented by bitewing radiography. This study evaluated strategies for combining visual-tactile and radiographic caries detection methods and determined their implications for clinical management decisions...... and cavitated lesions while the radiographic examination determined lesion depth. Direct inspection of the surfaces following tooth separation for the presence of cavitated or noncavitated lesions was the validation method. The true-positive rate (i.e. the sensitivity) and the false-positive rate (i.e. 1...

  15. Decision Support System for Blockage Management in Fire Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasuski Adam

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present the foundations of a decision support system for blockage management in Fire Service. Blockage refers to the situation when all fire units are out and a new incident occurs. The approach is based on two phases: off-line data preparation and online blockage estimation. The off-line phase consists of methods from data mining and natural language processing and results in semantically coherent information granules. The online phase is about building the probabilistic models that estimate the block-age probability based on these granules. Finally, the selected classifier judges whether a blockage can occur and whether the resources from neighbour fire stations should be asked for assistance.

  16. Influence diagrams and decision trees for severe accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goetz, W.W.J.

    1996-09-01

    A review of relevant methodologies based on Influence Diagrams (IDs), Decision Trees (DTs), and Containment Event Trees (CETs) was conducted to assess the practicality of these methods for the selection of effective strategies for Severe Accident Management (SAM). The review included an evaluation of some software packages for these methods. The emphasis was on possible pitfalls of using IDs and on practical aspects, the latter by performance of a case study that was based on an existing Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The study showed that the use of a combined ID/DT model has advantages over CET models, in particular when conservatisms in the Level 2 PSA have been identified and replaced by fair assessments of the uncertainties involved. It is recommended to use ID/DT models complementary to CET models. (orig.)

  17. Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary

  18. Development of a decision support tool for seasonal water supply management incorporating system uncertainties and operational constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Asefa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A real-time decision support tool (DST) for water supply system would consider system uncertainties, e.g., uncertain streamflow and demand, as well as operational constraints and infrastructure outage (e.g., pump station shutdown, an offline reservoir due to maintenance). Such DST is often used by water managers for resource allocation and delivery for customers. Although most seasonal DST used by water managers recognize those system uncertainties and operational constraints, most use only historical information or assume deterministic outlook of water supply systems. This study presents a seasonal DST that incorporates rainfall/streamflow uncertainties, seasonal demand outlook and system operational constraints. Large scale climate-information is captured through a rainfall simulator driven by a Bayesian non-homogeneous Markov Chain Monte Carlo model that allows non-stationary transition probabilities contingent on Nino 3.4 index. An ad-hoc seasonal demand forecasting model considers weather conditions explicitly and socio-economic factors implicitly. Latin Hypercube sampling is employed to effectively sample probability density functions of flow and demand. Seasonal system operation is modelled as a mixed-integer optimization problem that aims at minimizing operational costs. It embeds the flexibility of modifying operational rules at different components, e.g., surface water treatment plants, desalination facilities, and groundwater pumping stations. The proposed framework is illustrated at a wholesale water supplier in Southeastern United States, Tampa Bay Water. The use of the tool is demonstrated in proving operational guidance in a typical drawdown and refill cycle of a regional reservoir. The DST provided: 1) probabilistic outlook of reservoir storage and chance of a successful refill by the end of rainy season; 2) operational expectations for large infrastructures (e.g., high service pumps and booster stations) throughout the season. Other potential use

  19. Integrating decision management with UML modeling concepts and tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    , but also for guiding the user by proposing subsequent decisions. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, the decisions are typically not connected to these models...... of formerly disconnected tools could improve tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  20. Interdisciplinary Collaborative Learning: Using Decision Analysts to Enhance Undergraduate International Management Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palocsay, Susan W.; White, Marion M.; Zimmerman, D. Kent

    2004-01-01

    This article describes an experiential learning activity designed to promote the development of decision-making skills in international management students at the undergraduate level. Students from an undergraduate management science course in decision analysis served as consultants on a case assigned to teams in an international management class.…

  1. Managing Injected Water Composition To Improve Oil Recovery: A Case Study of North Sea Chalk Reservoirs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zahid, Adeel; Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2012-01-01

    of the temperature dependence of the oil recovery indicated that the interaction of the ions contained in brine with the rock cannot be the only determining mechanism of enhanced recovery. We observed no substitution of Ca2+ ions with Mg2+ ions at high temperatures for both rocks. Not only the injection brine......In recent years, many core displacement experiments of oil by seawater performed on chalk rock samples have reported SO42–, Ca2+, and Mg2+ as potential determining ions for improving oil recovery. Most of these studies were carried out with outcrop chalk core plugs. The objective of this study...... is to investigate the potential of the advanced waterflooding process by carrying out experiments with reservoir chalk samples. The study results in a better understanding of the mechanisms involved in increasing the oil recovery with potential determining ions. We carried out waterflooding instead of spontaneous...

  2. Decision support system for optimally managing water resources to meet multiple objectives in the Savannah River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Managers of large river basins face conflicting demands for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin, for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting dependent economies for years. The Savannah River estuary contains two municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor to expand ship traffic since the 1970s have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent. A planned deepening of the harbor includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity, whose effectiveness will only be known after all construction is completed.One of the challenges of large basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of

  3. Application UPTASK project management platform to support management decisions in I.T.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lagerev D.G.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Project planning and management accounting of all factors, in terms of multitasking and spontaneity of project man-agement, the task is very voluminous and complex, especially in isolation from the methodological and instrumentation. Calculation of indicators and statistical metrics, and strategies, the decision maker may be biased or incorrect character, and one can’t exclude the human factor. In such a perspective, it was decided to automate the process of statistical anal-ysis and probabilistic forecasting to help the decision-maker, as much as the right choice of strategic and project plan-ning. The problem is solved by means of the development of the project management system for the companies of the areas of information technology. One of the most important features of the development of a module statistical and probabilistic analysis based on Bayesian networks. The use of the proposed tool and methodological complex, will pro-vide a high level of optimization of the allocation of time to work processes and will increase the degree of correctness and continuity of decisions taken by the project manager.

  4. The effect of scientific evidence on conservation practitioners’ management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Jessica C; Dicks, Lynn V; Sutherland, William J

    2015-01-01

    A major justification of environmental management research is that it helps practitioners, yet previous studies show it is rarely used to inform their decisions. We tested whether conservation practitioners focusing on bird management were willing to use a synopsis of relevant scientific literature to inform their management decisions. This allowed us to examine whether the limited use of scientific information in management is due to a lack of access to the scientific literature or whether it is because practitioners are either not interested or unable to incorporate the research into their decisions. In on-line surveys, we asked 92 conservation managers, predominantly from Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, to provide opinions on 28 management techniques that could be applied to reduce predation on birds. We asked their opinions before and after giving them a summary of the literature about the interventions’ effectiveness. We scored the overall effectiveness and certainty of evidence for each intervention through an expert elicitation process—the Delphi method. We used the effectiveness scores to assess the practitioners’ level of understanding and awareness of the literature. On average, each survey participant changed their likelihood of using 45.7% of the interventions after reading the synopsis of the evidence. They were more likely to implement effective interventions and avoid ineffective actions, suggesting that their intended future management strategies may be more successful than current practice. More experienced practitioners were less likely to change their management practices than those with less experience, even though they were not more aware of the existing scientific information than less experienced practitioners. The practitioners’ willingness to change their management choices when provided with summarized scientific evidence suggests that improved accessibility to scientific information would benefit conservation

  5. Analysis of management quality and management decisions made using the example of russian oil and gas companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostylev A.O.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Results of empirical surveys performed by Russian and foreign researchers with regard to behavior patterns of managers, authorized by owners to make investment decisions, are systematized. Analysis of management quality and decisions made by Russian oil and gas managers are performed using the following 2 criteria: market capitalization change and opinion of professional society. The purpose of the research is to attract attention to low management quality in Russian statowned oil and gas companies.

  6. Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Sara B.

    2016-10-06

    State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats.A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The

  7. Decisive management in selecting locations for development of construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranko, E.; Pawłowicz, J. A.

    2017-08-01

    The location of an investment project is one of the most important decisions in the construction and land development business. The shape of a new building and aspects of its future use depend on making a good choice of a land plot where it will be constructed. There are many characteristics involved descriptions of land available for development. On the one hand, different buildings (with different envisaged use) fit differently to a given location. Residential homes, for example, require a location which will ensure a peaceful lifestyle, with places for walks and recreation, situated in a relatively quite setting. On the other hand, close proximity to schools, shops or a health clinic is another important consideration. Industrial buildings should be localized so as not to be a nuisance to others, and their location should facilitate efficient transport of raw materials and ready products. Yet other requirements are defined for public buildings. It is therefore evident that the characteristics included in an evaluation of the location of a planned building can be highly diverse and their diversity makes the evaluation difficult. Selection of a location can be supported by a variety of methods. For instance, an evaluation can rely on assigning points which indicate the fulfillment of certain criteria. This approach generates a complex evaluation in the form of tables and maps of usefulness. Another possibility is to make an assessment of the criteria that a given land parcels should satisfy in order to develop a specific type of a building. Having combined these two sets of information, we can create a system or a model for the management of land resources, which will easily help to support decision making processes pertaining to the choice of a location. This article shows a model approach for a specific building.

  8. Waste Acceptance Decisions and Uncertainty Analysis at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redus, K. S.; Patterson, J. E.; Hampshire, G. L.; Perkins, A. B.

    2003-01-01

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Attainment Team (AT) routinely provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Operations with Go/No-Go decisions associated with the disposition of over 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous waste. This supply of waste comes from 60+ environmental restoration projects over the next 15 years planned to be dispositioned at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). The EMWMF WAC AT decision making process is accomplished in four ways: (1) ensure a clearly defined mission and timeframe for accomplishment is established, (2) provide an effective organization structure with trained personnel, (3) have in place a set of waste acceptance decisions and Data Quality Objectives (DQO) for which quantitative measures are required, and (4) use validated risk-based forecasting, decision support, and modeling/simulation tools. We provide a summary of WAC AT structure and performance. We offer suggestions based on lessons learned for effective transfer to other DOE

  9. Waste Acceptance Decisions and Uncertainty Analysis at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redus, K. S.; Patterson, J. E.; Hampshire, G. L.; Perkins, A. B.

    2003-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Attainment Team (AT) routinely provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Operations with Go/No-Go decisions associated with the disposition of over 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous waste. This supply of waste comes from 60+ environmental restoration projects over the next 15 years planned to be dispositioned at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). The EMWMF WAC AT decision making process is accomplished in four ways: (1) ensure a clearly defined mission and timeframe for accomplishment is established, (2) provide an effective organization structure with trained personnel, (3) have in place a set of waste acceptance decisions and Data Quality Objectives (DQO) for which quantitative measures are required, and (4) use validated risk-based forecasting, decision support, and modeling/simulation tools. We provide a summary of WAC AT structure and performance. We offer suggestions based on lessons learned for effective transfer to other DOE.

  10. Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2013-04-01

    Water resources systems are operated, mostly, using a set of pre-defined rules not regarding, usually, to an optimal allocation in terms of water use or economic benefits, but to historical and institutional reasons. These operating policies are reproduced, commonly, as hedging rules, pack rules or zone-based operations, and simulation models can be used to test their performance under a wide range of hydrological and/or socio-economic hypothesis. Despite the high degree of acceptation and testing that these models have achieved, the actual operation of water resources systems hardly follows all the time the pre-defined rules with the consequent uncertainty on the system performance. Real-world reservoir operation is very complex, affected by input uncertainty (imprecision in forecast inflow, seepage and evaporation losses, etc.), filtered by the reservoir operator's experience and natural risk-aversion, while considering the different physical and legal/institutional constraints in order to meet the different demands and system requirements. The aim of this work is to expose a fuzzy logic approach to derive and assess the historical operation of a system. This framework uses a fuzzy rule-based system to reproduce pre-defined rules and also to match as close as possible the actual decisions made by managers. After built up, the fuzzy rule-based system can be integrated in a water resources management model, making possible to assess the system performance at the basin scale. The case study of the Mijares basin (eastern Spain) is used to illustrate the method. A reservoir operating curve regulates the two main reservoir releases (operated in a conjunctive way) with the purpose of guaranteeing a high realiability of supply to the traditional irrigation districts with higher priority (more senior demands that funded the reservoir construction). A fuzzy rule-based system has been created to reproduce the operating curve's performance, defining the system state (total

  11. Putting Flow–Ecology Relationships into Practice: A Decision-Support System to Assess Fish Community Response to Water-Management Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Cartwright

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  12. Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  13. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    by proposing potential subsequent design issues. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, these decisions are typically not connected to the models created during...... integration of formerly disconnected tools improves tool usability as well as decision maker productivity....

  14. Decision support tools to support the operations of traffic management centers (TMC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-31

    The goal of this project is to develop decision support tools to support traffic management operations based on collected intelligent transportation system (ITS) data. The project developments are in accordance with the needs of traffic management ce...

  15. Connecting engineering operations to strategic management: a framework for decision making in engineering offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2012-01-01

    of the organisation. The Global Decision-Making (GDM) framework described here is a decision-making framework for engineering offshoring decisions for product development activities. The framework proposes that risks in engineering offshoring can be reduced by connecting engineering operations to strategic management...

  16. A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1977-01-01

    Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

  17. Waterproofing with polymeric geo synthetic barriers (GBR-P) in the manual for the design, construction, management and maintenance of reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanco, M.; Cea, J. C.; Garcia, F.; Sanchez, F. J.; Castillo, F.; Mora, J.; Crespo, M. A.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a part of Manual for the Design, Construction, Management and Maintenance of Reservoirs relative to waterproofing with Polymeric Geo synthetic Barriers (GBR-P). the nature materials of geo membranes is studied also theirs characteristics and specifications. (Author) 26 refs.

  18. Decision support program for congestion management using demand side flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esmat, Ayman; Pinson, Pierre; Usaola, Julio

    2017-01-01

    In the past decades, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) have been mitigating distribution networks (DNs) contingencies by opting to grid reinforcements. However, this approach is not always cost and time efficient. Demand Side Flexibility (DSF) is one of the recent alternatives used in DNs cong...... effect is taken into consideration as well as the uncertain behavior of customers. Finally, the distribution grid of the Danish Bornholm Island is used to illustrate the merits of the DSP. The total cost incurred by the DSO is calculated and presented.......In the past decades, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) have been mitigating distribution networks (DNs) contingencies by opting to grid reinforcements. However, this approach is not always cost and time efficient. Demand Side Flexibility (DSF) is one of the recent alternatives used in DNs...... congestion management. Consequently, new market players such as aggregators are needed to handle DSF transaction between customers and DSOs. This paper proposes and models a decision support program (DSP) to optimize the total cost charged by the DSO for using DSF services. Moreover, the energy rebound...

  19. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  20. Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

    2016-01-01

    Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

  1. Management of a caseous lymphadenitis outbreak in a new Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica) stock reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colom-Cadena, Andreu; Velarde, Roser; Salinas, Jesús; Borge, Carmen; García-Bocanegra, Ignacio; Serrano, Emmanuel; Gassó, Diana; Bach, Ester; Casas-Díaz, Encarna; López-Olvera, Jorge R; Lavín, Santiago; León-Vizcaíno, Luís; Mentaberre, Gregorio

    2014-12-10

    In 2010, an Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica hispanica) stock reservoir was established for conservation purposes in north-eastern Spain. Eighteen ibexes were captured in the wild and housed in a 17 hectare enclosure. Once in captivity, a caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) outbreak occurred and ibex handlings were carried out at six-month intervals between 2010 and 2013 to perform health examinations and sampling. Treatment with a bacterin-based autovaccine and penicillin G benzatine was added during the third and subsequent handlings, when infection by Corynebacterium pseudotuberculosis was confirmed. Changes in lesion score, serum anti-C. pseudotuberculosis antibodies and haematological parameters were analyzed to assess captivity effects, disease emergence and treatment efficacy. Serum acute phase proteins (APP) Haptoglobin (Hp), Amyloid A (SAA) and Acid Soluble Glycoprotein (ASG) concentrations were also determined to evaluate their usefulness as indicators of clinical status. Once in captivity, 12 out of 14 ibexes (85.7%) seroconverted, preceding the emergence of clinical signs; moreover, TP, WBC, eosinophil and platelet cell counts increased while monocyte and basophil cell counts decreased. After treatment, casualties and fistulas disappeared and both packed cell volume (PCV) and haemoglobin concentration significantly increased. Hp, SAA and ASG values were under the limit of detection or showed no significant differences. A role for captivity in contagion rate is suggested by the increase in antibody levels against C. pseudotuberculosis and the emergence of clinical signs. Although boosted by captivity, this is the first report of an outbreak of caseous lymphadenitis displaying high morbidity and mortality in wild ungulates. Treatment consisting of both vaccination and antibiotic therapy seemed to prevent mortality and alleviate disease severity, but was not reflected in the humoural response. Haematology and APP were not useful indicators in our study, perhaps due

  2. Applications of stable isotopes and radioisotopes in the exploration and reservoir management of Philippine geothermal fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrer, H.P.; Alvis-Isidro, R.R.

    1996-01-01

    The development of indigenous geothermal energy resources is currently one of the primary thrusts of the country's energy program. Presently, the Philippines has a total of geothermal generating capacity of about 1400 MWe. This comprises about 20% of the total energy mix and electricity requirements of the country. By 1998, an additional capacity of about 500 MWe will be commissioned, and the PHilippines would be generating 1900 MWe of electricity from geothermal energy resources. From 1990 to 1993, PNOC EDC (Philippine National Oil Company, Energy Development Corporation) has been granted a research contract by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Company has also been a recipient since 1991 of an IAEA Technical Assistance on the use of stable isotope techniques in geothermal hydrology. Stable isotopes, particularly 18 O and 2 H, in conjunction with other geochemical parameters and geological and geophysical data, have been used to: a) establish the local meteoric water line; b) determine the origin of geothermal fluids; c) delineate the elevation of recharge of geothermal and ground water systems; d) confirm pre-exploitation hydrochemical models; e) identify physical and chemical processes due to exploitation of the geothermal resource (i.e. reinjection fluid returns, incursion of cold meteoric water, boiling due to pressure drawdown and mixing with acidic steam condensates); and, f) estimate reservoir temperatures. Techniques using radioisotopes, such as 14 C, have also been used for the age-dating of charred wood samples collected from some of our geothermal exploration areas. The detection of 3 H has also been used as an indicator for the incursion of recent cold meteoric water into the geothermal system. Tracer studies using 131 I, have also been previously carried out, in coordination with the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute, to determine local hydrology and flow paths of reinjected water in some of our geothermal fields

  3. Agricultural non-point source pollution management in a reservoir watershed based on ecological network analysis of soil nitrogen cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wen; Cai, Yanpeng; Rong, Qiangqiang; Yang, Zhifeng; Li, Chunhui; Wang, Xuan

    2018-03-01

    The Miyun Reservoir plays a pivotal role in providing drinking water for the city of Beijing. In this research, ecological network analysis and scenario analysis were integrated to explore soil nitrogen cycling of chestnut and Chinese pine forests in the upper basin of the Miyun Reservoir, as well as to seek favorable fertilization modes to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution. Ecological network analysis results showed that (1) the turnover time was 0.04 to 0.37 year in the NH 4 + compartment and were 15.78 to 138.36 years in the organic N compartment; (2) the Finn cycling index and the ratio of indirect to direct flow were 0.73 and 11.92 for the chestnut forest model, respectively. Those of the Chinese pine forest model were 0.88 and 29.23, respectively; and (3) in the chestnut forest model, NO 3 - accounted for 96% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by plant N (2%), NH 4 + (1%), and organic N (1%). In the Chinese pine forest, NH 4 + accounted for 56% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by organic N (34%) and NO 3 - (10%). Fertilization mode was identified as the main factor affecting soil N export. To minimize NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs while maintaining the current plant yield (i.e., 7.85e0 kg N/year), a fertilization mode of 162.50 kg N/year offered by manure should be adopted. Whereas, to achieve a maximum plant yield (i.e., 3.35e1 kg N/year) while reducing NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs, a fertilization mode of 325.00 kg N/year offered by manure should be utilized. This research is of wide suitability to support agricultural non-point source pollution management at the watershed scale.

  4. Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

  5. Pest management in Douglas-fir seed orchards: a microcomputer decision method

    Science.gov (United States)

    James B. Hoy; Michael I. Haverty

    1988-01-01

    The computer program described provides a Douglas-fir seed orchard manager (user) with a quantitative method for making insect pest management decisions on a desk-top computer. The decision system uses site-specific information such as estimates of seed crop size, insect attack rates, insecticide efficacy and application costs, weather, and crop value. At sites where...

  6. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Borges, Jose G.; Palma, João H.N.; Ray, Duncan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Delzon, Sylvain; Kremer, Antoine; Kramer, Koen; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Lasch-Born, Petra; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2017-01-01

    Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future

  7. THE INFLUENCE OF TOP MANAGEMENT DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ON DECISION MAKING APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bulog

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Today’s organizational environment requires managers to be an excellent decision maker with the ability to make effective decisions which will shape business performance. Because of the role that managers have in today’s business settings, research interest in the relationship between individual characteristics and managerial decision making in all its aspects has increased over the last decade. This paper aims to provide an overview and discussion of how individuals make choices and decisions by examining the influence of top management demographic characteristics on decision making approaches. Findings suggest that demographic characteristics appear to be valuable for predicting which decision making approach managers prefer. The results of the study show that the average age and education level of decision makers is positively related to the rational decision making approach and negatively to the intuitive decision making approach. Tenure is positively related to the intuitive decision making approach, but the influence is not statistically significant. Also, a difference in the decision making approach was found with respect to gender. In light of the research findings, implications and limitations were discussed and some possibilities for future research are suggested.

  8. Constructing development and integrated coastal zone management in the conditions of the landslide slopes of Cheboksary water reservoir (Volga River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikonorova, I. V.

    2018-01-01

    Uncontrolled construction and insufficient accounting of engineering-geological and hydro-geological conditions of the coastal zone, intensified technogenic impact on sloping surfaces and active urbanization led to the emergence of serious problems and emergency situations on the coasts of many Volga reservoirs, including the Cheboksary reservoir, within Cheboksary urban district and adjacent territories of Chuvashia. This article is devoted to substantiation of the possibility of rational construction development of landslide slopes of the Cheboksary water reservoir.

  9. Reliability of decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ionescu, Tudor B.

    2013-08-15

    Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safetycritical software systems, such as embedded software currently being used in vehicles and aircraft. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the design by diversity principle for improving the reliability of codes and the trustworthiness of results as well as on a flexible fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm for ensuring the maximum availability of the system. The author's contribution is represented by (i) an acceptance test for dispersion simulation results, (ii) an adjudication algorithm (voter) based on comparing taxonomies of dispersion simulation results, and (iii) a feedback-control based fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm. These tools provide means for the continuous verification of dispersion simulation codes while tolerating timing faults caused by disturbances in the underlying computational environment and will thus help increase the reliability and trustworthiness of DSNE systems in missioncritical

  10. Reliability of decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Tudor B.

    2013-08-01

    Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safetycritical software systems, such as embedded software currently being used in vehicles and aircraft. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the design by diversity principle for improving the reliability of codes and the trustworthiness of results as well as on a flexible fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm for ensuring the maximum availability of the system. The author's contribution is represented by (i) an acceptance test for dispersion simulation results, (ii) an adjudication algorithm (voter) based on comparing taxonomies of dispersion simulation results, and (iii) a feedback-control based fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm. These tools provide means for the continuous verification of dispersion simulation codes while tolerating timing faults caused by disturbances in the underlying computational environment and will thus help increase the reliability and trustworthiness of DSNE systems in missioncritical

  11. A crisis management decision support system to reduce ingestion dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schenker-Wicki, A.; Gibbert, R.

    1993-01-01

    Environmental accidents such as extensive radioactive or chemical contamination can have more serious consequences for a population than any other kind of accidents known before. Owing to the serious consequences and the high number of people who may be affected, the selection of the best countermeasures to ameliorate the imminent impact is very difficult and the political responsibility is enormous. To help overcome such problems the National Emergency Operations Center in Zurich (Switzerland) has developed a decision support system to evaluate acceptable countermeasures for reducing ingestion dose after an accidental release of radioactive material. The system involves all the necessary modules and techniques for efficient decision making, based on the most recent developments in decision theory as well as the necessary structuring of the decision-making process. The decision-making concept comprehends decision making on two different levels, a technical and a political one. (author)

  12. Crisis Management: Psychological and Sociological Factors in Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-03-01

    Section A. Cognitive Prooeaes While what has been a Ued the " rational model" of decision - making may not adequately account for the operation of the...obstacles blocking rational decision - making . 7. What part does fatigue play in reacting to a crisis? Fatigue results from two factors. First...further important question of the impact of these variables on decision - making . It is a difficult theoretical problem to link the maladaptive emotional

  13. Nutrient-based ecological consideration of a temporary river catchment affected by a reservoir operation to facilitate efficient management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzoraki, Ourania A; Dörflinger, Gerald; Kathijotes, Nicholas; Kontou, Artemis

    2014-01-01

    The water quality status of the Kouris river in Cyprus was examined in order to fulfil the requirements for ecological quality as defined by the Water Framework Directive-2000/60/EC. Nitrate concentration (mean value) was increased in the Limnatis (2.8 mg L(-1)) tributary in comparison with the Kryos (2.1 mg L(-1)) and Kouris (1.0 mg L(-1)) tributaries depicting the influence of anthropogenic activities. The total maximum daily nutrients loads (TMDLs) based on the flow duration curves approach, showed that nutrients loads exceeded threshold values (33.3-75.6% in all hydrologic condition classes in the Kouris tributary, and 65-78% in the Limnatis tributary) especially under low flow conditions. The TMDL graph is intended to guide the temporal schedule for chemical sampling in all hydrologic classes. Kouris reservoir is an oligotrophic system, strongly influenced by the river's flash-flood character but also by the implemented management practices. Kouris river outflow, which was reduced to one-tenth in the post dam period altered the wetland hydrologic network and contributed to the decrease of aquifer thickness. Continuous evaluation and update of the River Basin Management Plans will be the basis for the sustainable development of the Kouris basin.

  14. Analysis of the decision-making process of nurse managers: a collective reflection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eduardo, Elizabete Araujo; Peres, Aida Maris; de Almeida, Maria de Lourdes; Roglio, Karina de Dea; Bernardino, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    to analyze the decision-making model adopted by nurses from the perspective of some decision-making process theories. qualitative approach, based on action research. Semi-structured questionnaires and seminars were conducted from April to June 2012 in order to understand the nature of decisions and the decision-making process of nine nurses in position of managers at a public hospital in Southern Brazil. Data were subjected to content analysis. data were classified in two categories: the current situation of decision-making, which showed a lack of systematization; the construction and collective decision-making, which emphasizes the need to develop a decision-making model. the decision-making model used by nurses is limited because it does not consider two important factors: the limits of human rationality, and the external and internal organizational environments that influence and determine right decisions.

  15. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

    2013-01-01

    Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

  16. Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed

  17. Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C., E-mail: athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece); Army Corps of Engineers, Hellenic Army General Staff, Ministry of Defence (Greece); Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece)

    2013-05-15

    Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.

  18. Optimal and centralized reservoir management for drought and flood protection via Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming on the Upper Seine-Aube River system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiavico, Mattia; Raso, Luciano; Dorchies, David; Malaterre, Pierre-Olivier

    2015-04-01

    Seine river region is an extremely important logistic and economic junction for France and Europe. The hydraulic protection of most part of the region relies on four controlled reservoirs, managed by EPTB Seine-Grands Lacs. Presently, reservoirs operation is not centrally coordinated, and release rules are based on empirical filling curves. In this study, we analyze how a centralized release policy can face flood and drought risks, optimizing water system efficiency. The optimal and centralized decisional problem is solved by Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) method, minimizing an operational indicator for each planning objective. SDDP allows us to include into the system: 1) the hydrological discharge, specifically a stochastic semi-distributed auto-regressive model, 2) the hydraulic transfer model, represented by a linear lag and route model, and 3) reservoirs and diversions. The novelty of this study lies on the combination of reservoir and hydraulic models in SDDP for flood and drought protection problems. The study case covers the Seine basin until the confluence with Aube River: this system includes two reservoirs, the city of Troyes, and the Nuclear power plant of Nogent-Sur-Seine. The conflict between the interests of flood protection, drought protection, water use and ecology leads to analyze the environmental system in a Multi-Objective perspective.

  19. The Decision Tree for Teaching Management of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaggs, Sara J.; And Others

    1974-01-01

    A 'decision tree' consists of an outline of the patient's symptoms and a logic for decision and action. It is felt that this approach to the decisionmaking process better facilitates each learner's application of his own level of knowledge and skills. (Author)

  20. A Decision Support System for Corporations Cybersecurity Management

    OpenAIRE

    Roldán-Molina, G.; Almache-Cueva, M.; Silva-Rabadão, C.; Yevseyeva, Iryna; Basto-Fernandes, V.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents ongoing work on a decision aiding software intended to support cyber risks and cyber threats analysis of an information and communications technological infrastructure. The software will help corporations Chief Information Security Officers on cyber security risk analysis, decision-making, prevention measures and risk strategies for the infrastructure and information assets protection.

  1. Benchmarking Usage Statistics in Collection Management Decisions for Serials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Cory

    2009-01-01

    Usage statistics are an important metric for making decisions on serials. Although the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV) Libraries have been collecting usage statistics, the statistics had not frequently been used to make decisions and had not been included in collection development policy. After undergoing a collection assessment, the…

  2. How do principles for human-centred automation apply to Disruption Management Decision Support?

    OpenAIRE

    Golightly, David; Dadashi, Nastaran

    2016-01-01

    While automation of signal and route setting is routine, the use of automation or decision support in disruption management processes is far less common. Such support offers significant advantages in optimising re-planning of both timetable and resources (crew and rolling stock), and has value in offering a 'shared view' of re-planning across the many actors manage disruption. If this vision is to be realised, however, disruption management decision support and automation must adhere to prove...

  3. Application of fuzzy inference system to increase efficiency of management decision-making in agricultural enterprises

    OpenAIRE

    Balanovskаya, Tetiana Ivanovna; Boretska, Zoreslava Petrovna

    2014-01-01

    Application of fuzzy inference system to increase efficiency of management decision- making in agricultural enterprises. Theoretical and methodological issues, practical recommendations on improvement of management decision-making in agricultural enterprises to increase their competitiveness have been intensified and developed in the article. A simulation example of a quality management system for agricultural products on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic has been proposed...

  4. GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM AND REMOTE SENSING BASED DISASTER MANAGEMENT AND DECISION SUPPORT PLATFORM: AYDES

    OpenAIRE

    Keskin, İ.; Akbaba, N.; Tosun, M.; Tüfekçi, M. K.; Bulut, D.; Avcı, F.; Gökçe, O.

    2018-01-01

    The accelerated developments in information technology in recent years, increased the amount of usage of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) in disaster management considerably and the access from mobile and web-based platforms to continuous, accurate and sufficient data needed for decision-making became easier accordingly. The Disaster Management and Decision Support System (AYDES) has been developed with the purpose of managing the disaster and emergency manageme...

  5. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2017-01-01

    optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no......-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying......Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future...

  6. Bayesian framework for managing preferences in decision-making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maes, Marc A.; Faber, Michael H.

    2006-01-01

    A rational decision-making process does not exclude the possibility of decision makers expressing different preferences and disagreeing regarding the effects of consequences and optimal course of actions. This point of view is explored in depth in this paper. A framework is developed that includes several decision makers (instead of just one) and allows for the variability of preferences among these decision makers. The information provided by the varying opinions of decision makers can be used to optimize our own decision-making. To achieve this, likelihood functions are developed for stated preferences among both discrete and continuous alternatives, and stated preference rankings of alternatives. Two applications are pursued: the optimization of the lifecycle utility of a structural system subject to consequences of failure proportional to the intensity of hazards exceeding a variable threshold, and to follow-up consequences. Also, the problem of tight decisions or close calls is investigated in order to explore the efficiency of a Bayesian approach using stated preferences and stated rankings

  7. Bathymetry and capacity of Shawnee Reservoir, Oklahoma, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashworth, Chad E.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Smith, Kevin A.

    2017-02-13

    capacity and between stage and reservoir surface area. The bathymetric map may serve as a baseline to which temporal changes in storage capacity, due to sedimentation and other factors, can be compared. The stage-storage relation may be used in the reporting of real-time Shawnee Reservoir storage capacity at USGS station 07241600 to support water-resource management decisions by the City of Shawnee.

  8. Intelligent Decision Support and Big Data for Logistics and Supply Chain Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voss, Stefan; Sebastian, Hans-Jürgen; Pahl, Julia

    2017-01-01

    Intelligent Decision Support and Big Data for Logistics and Supply Chain Management” features theoretical developments, real-world applications and information systems related to solving decision problems in logistics and supply chain management. Methods include optimization, heuristics, metaheur......Intelligent Decision Support and Big Data for Logistics and Supply Chain Management” features theoretical developments, real-world applications and information systems related to solving decision problems in logistics and supply chain management. Methods include optimization, heuristics......, metaheuristics and matheuristics, simulation, agent technologies, and descriptive methods. In a sense, we were and are representing the future of logistics over the years....

  9. Decision management for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberds, W.J.; Haerer, H.A. [Golder Associates, Inc., Redmond, WA (United States); Winterfeldt, D.V. [Decision Insights, Laguna Beach, CA (United States)

    1992-04-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is in the process of developing estimates for the radiation doses that individuals and population groups may have received as a result of past activities at the Hanford Reservation in Eastern Washington. A formal decision-aiding methodology has been developed to assist the HEDR Project in making significant and defensible decisions regarding how this study will be conducted. These decisions relate primarily to policy (e.g., the appropriate level of public participation in the study) and specific technical aspects (e.g., the appropriate domain and depth of the study), and may have significant consequences with respect to technical results, costs, and public acceptability.

  10. Decision management for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberds, W.J.; Haerer, H.A.; Winterfeldt, D.V.

    1992-04-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is in the process of developing estimates for the radiation doses that individuals and population groups may have received as a result of past activities at the Hanford Reservation in Eastern Washington. A formal decision-aiding methodology has been developed to assist the HEDR Project in making significant and defensible decisions regarding how this study will be conducted. These decisions relate primarily to policy (e.g., the appropriate level of public participation in the study) and specific technical aspects (e.g., the appropriate domain and depth of the study), and may have significant consequences with respect to technical results, costs, and public acceptability

  11. Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

    2013-01-01

    We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

  12. From axiomatics of quantum probability to modelling geological uncertainty and management of intelligent hydrocarbon reservoirs with the theory of open quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia

    2018-04-01

    As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper, we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E. The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. `explore or not?'; `open new well or not?'; `contaminated by water or not?'; `double or triple porosity medium?') is modelled by using the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism). This article is part of the theme issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.

  13. From axiomatics of quantum probability to modelling geological uncertainty and management of intelligent hydrocarbon reservoirs with the theory of open quantum systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia

    2018-04-28

    As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper , we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E ; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. 'explore or not?'; 'open new well or not?'; 'contaminated by water or not?'; 'double or triple porosity medium?') is modelled by using the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism).This article is part of the theme issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  14. Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Paul D; Trainor, Timothy E

    2006-01-01

    .... A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process...

  15. Enhancing Effective Decision Making by Information Management Techniques

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Breznitz, Shlomo

    1997-01-01

    .... Individual differences were tested using a battery of personality characteristics. The results indicated that initially encouraging information enhances the quality of decision processes, particularly during the first phase of the task...

  16. Clinical decision-making by midwives: managing case complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioffi, J; Markham, R

    1997-02-01

    In making clinical judgements, it is argued that midwives use 'shortcuts' or heuristics based on estimated probabilities to simplify the decision-making task. Midwives (n = 30) were given simulated patient assessment situations of high and low complexity and were required to think aloud. Analysis of verbal protocols showed that subjective probability judgements (heuristics) were used more frequently in the high than low complexity case and predominated in the last quarter of the assessment period for the high complexity case. 'Representativeness' was identified more frequently in the high than in the low case, but was the dominant heuristic in both. Reports completed after each simulation suggest that heuristics based on memory for particular conditions affect decisions. It is concluded that midwives use heuristics, derived mainly from their clinical experiences, in an attempt to save cognitive effort and to facilitate reasonably accurate decisions in the decision-making process.

  17. Multi-criteria decision making for water resource management: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-01-04

    Jan 4, 2010 ... reliable information about the river basin in terms of physical, hydrological ... decision making (MCDM) methods to cope with water-related problems in .... tial tool to account for water availability and demand scenar- ios, and ...

  18. 灰色随机多准则的水库洪水调度群决策方法及应用%Decision making method of grey random reservoir flood dispatching multiple criterion group and its application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    申海; 解建仓; 李建勋; 李维乾

    2012-01-01

    【目的】建立基于灰色随机多准则的群决策方法,为处理水库洪水调度决策中的不确定信息提供参考。【方法】利用区间数可能度将水库当前所处状态的区间概率转化为点概率,结合区间偏好的群集结法,将概率为区间数、准则值为区间灰数的灰色随机多准则水库洪水调度问题转化为无风险决策问题,计算各备选方案在正负理想方案上的灰色隶属度,以及方案准则值的加权相对灰度,根据区间灰数公式对决策方案进行排序,建立基于灰色随机多准则的水库洪水调度群决策方法。【结果】实例计算表明,该方法有效地解决了水库洪水调度中概率为区间数、准则值为区间灰数的灰色随机多准则问题。【结论】所构建的基于灰色随机多准则的群决策方法,具有一定的有效性和合理性,为水库洪水合理、科学的调度提供了一条有效途径。%[Objective] The study was to establish a group decision method based on the grey random many criteria, so as to provide important decision basis for dealing with uncertain information in reservoir flood dispatching decision-making. [Method] The reservoir interval probability in the current state turn in- to point probability through interval number possibility degree. Combining with the assembly group meth- ods of interval preference, the probability of the reservoir flood dispatching based on grey random many standards was interval number. The criterion value of the reservoir flood dispatching based on grey random many standards was interval grey number. These questions had been turned into no risk decision problem. We calculated the grey membership of the different schemes on idea scheme, and weighted grey relatively of scheme criterion value. The different schemes would go in order according to interval grey number formula. Determining method of effective reservoir flood dispatching decision making was

  19. A decision support system for corporations cyber security risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Molina, Gabriela del Rocio Roldan

    2017-01-01

    This thesis presents a decision aiding system named C3-SEC (Contex-aware Corporative Cyber Security), developed in the context of a master program at Polytechnic Institute of Leiria, Portugal. The research dimension and the corresponding software development process that followed are presented and validated with an application scenario and case study performed at Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas ESPE – Ecuador. C3-SEC is a decision aiding software intended to support cyber ri...

  20. An Exploratory Study Investigating How and Why Managers Use Tablets to Support Managerial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xiao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Managers are often mobile and a large proportion of their work is dealing with decisions. Although many managers currently use tablet computers in their work, there is little research on the use of tablets for managerial decision-support. This exploratory study aims to investigate the ways in which managers use tablets to support their decision-making and the reasons why they do so. Using Task-Technology Fit theory, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 managers, 17 of whom used tablets for their work-related decision-making. The study reveals managers’ tablet usage patterns in terms of location, tablet applications, decision activities and types. This study has also found that a range of tablet characteristics and decision-task characteristics affect managers’ use of tablets to support decision-making at work. This exploratory study contributes to both academia and industry by providing evidence on the tablet decision-support area, and affording organisations, tablet vendors and tablet application developers informative findings for further improvement in the provision of tablet-based decision support.

  1. Managed care and clinical decision-making in child and adolescent behavioral health: provider perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanos, Philip T; Garcia, Christine I; Hansell, Stephen; Rosato, Mark G; Minsky, Shula

    2003-03-01

    This study investigated how managed care affects clinical decision-making in a behavioral health care system. Providers serving children and adolescents under both managed and unmanaged care (n = 28) were interviewed about their awareness of differences between the benefit arrangements, how benefits affect clinical decision-making, outcomes and quality of care; and satisfaction with care. Quantitative and qualitative findings indicated that providers saw both advantages and disadvantages to managed care. Although most providers recognized the advantages of managed care in increasing efficiency, many were concerned that administrative pressures associated with managed care compromise service quality.

  2. Research on Group Decision-Making Mechanism of Internet Emergency Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Kefan; Chen, Gang; Qian, Wu; Shi, Zhao

    With the development of information technology, internet has become a popular term and internet emergency has an intensive influence on people's life. This article offers a short history of internet emergency management. It discusses the definition, characteristics, and factor of internet emergency management. A group decision-making mechanism of internet emergency is presented based on the discussion. The authors establish a so-called Rough Set Scenario Flow Graphs (RSSFG) of group decision-making mechanism of internet emergency management and make an empirical analysis based on the RSSFG approach. The experimental results confirm that this approach is effective in internet emergency decision-making.

  3. The role of information systems in management decision making-an theoretical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PhD. Associate Professor Department of Management & Informatics Mihane Berisha-Namani

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In modern conditions of globalisation and development of information technology, information processing activities have come to be seen as essential to successful of businesses and organizations. Information has become essential to make decisions and crucial asset in organisations, whereas information systems is technology required for information processing. The application of information systems technology in business and organisations has opened up new possibilities for running and managing organisations, as well as has improved management decision making. The purpose of this paper is to give an understanding of the role that information systems have in management decision making and to discuss the possibilities how managers of organisations can make best use of information systems. The paper starts with identifying the functions of management and managerial roles and continue with information systems usage in three levels of decision making. It specifically addresses the way how information systems can help managers reduce uncertainty in decision making and includes some important implications of information systems usage for managers. Thus, this study provide a framework of effective use of information systems generally and offers an alternative approach to investigate the impact that information systems technology have in management decision making specifically

  4. Simulation of California's Major Reservoirs Outflow Using Data Mining Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

    2014-12-01

    The reservoir's outflow is controlled by reservoir operators, which is different from the upstream inflow. The outflow is more important than the reservoir's inflow for the downstream water users. In order to simulate the complicated reservoir operation and extract the outflow decision making patterns for California's 12 major reservoirs, we build a data-driven, computer-based ("artificial intelligent") reservoir decision making tool, using decision regression and classification tree approach. This is a well-developed statistical and graphical modeling methodology in the field of data mining. A shuffled cross validation approach is also employed to extract the outflow decision making patterns and rules based on the selected decision variables (inflow amount, precipitation, timing, water type year etc.). To show the accuracy of the model, a verification study is carried out comparing the model-generated outflow decisions ("artificial intelligent" decisions) with that made by reservoir operators (human decisions). The simulation results show that the machine-generated outflow decisions are very similar to the real reservoir operators' decisions. This conclusion is based on statistical evaluations using the Nash-Sutcliffe test. The proposed model is able to detect the most influential variables and their weights when the reservoir operators make an outflow decision. While the proposed approach was firstly applied and tested on California's 12 major reservoirs, the method is universally adaptable to other reservoir systems.

  5. An establishment on the hazard mitigation system of large scale landslides for Zengwen reservoir watershed management in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Lee, Ming-Hsi; Chen, Yie-Ruey; Huang, Meng-Hsuan; Yu, Chia-Ching

    2016-04-01

    hazard mitigation program operated by local government and reservoir watershed management in southern Taiwan. Keywords: large scale landslide, disaster prevention, hazard mitigation, watershed management

  6. Multiple shooting applied to robust reservoir control optimization including output constraints on coherent risk measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne

    2017-01-01

    The production life of oil reservoirs starts under significant uncertainty regarding the actual economical return of the recovery process due to the lack of oil field data. Consequently, investors and operators make management decisions based on a limited and uncertain description of the reservoir....... In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...

  7. 75 FR 10308 - Fire Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement, Record of Decision, Grand Canyon...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-05

    ... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR National Park Service Fire Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact... Statement for the Fire Management Plan, Grand Canyon National Park. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the National... the Record of Decision for the Fire Management Plan, Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. On January...

  8. Multi-criteria decision models for forestry and natural resources management: an annotated bibliography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph E. de Steiguer; Leslie Liberti; Albert Schuler; Bruce Hansen

    2003-01-01

    Foresters and natural resource managers must balance conflicting objectives when developing land-management plans. Conflicts may encompass economic, environmental, social, cultural, technical, and aesthetic objectives. Selecting the best combination of management uses from numerous objectives is difficult and challenging. Multi-Criteria Decision Models (MCDM) provide a...

  9. Evaluating the best available social science for natural resource management decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Charnley; Courtney Carothers; Terre Satterfield; Arielle Levine; Melissa R. Poe; Karma Norman; Jamie Donatuto; Sara Jo Breslow; Michael B. Mascia; Phillip S. Levin; Xavier Basurto; Christina C. Hicks; Carlos García-Quijano; Kevin St. Martin

    2017-01-01

    Increasing recognition of the human dimensions of natural resource management issues, and of social and ecological sustainability and resilience as being inter-related, highlights the importance of applying social science to natural resource management decision-making. Moreover, a number of laws and regulations require natural resource management agencies to consider...

  10. STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PROJECTS, AIMED AT THE BIM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burneo Valarezo Servio

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in the management of projects aimed at Building Information Modeling, represents the main action to be developed during the development of the investment lifecycle, from inception to the development of life, decision marking is present in all phases of project management. In the Fund's shares of the production system by projects, decision making integrated from the priorities of the projects play an important role in the success of the company. The present work has as objective the development of a procedure for decision making during the life cycle of the project, the conditions for its implementation and the process for its development, with the purpose of raising their quality, to ensure decision making effective, consistent with the current development of the techniques of management.

  11. Healthcare managers' decision making: findings of a small scale exploratory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macdonald, Jackie; Bath, Peter A; Booth, Andrew

    2008-12-01

    Managers who work in publicly funded healthcare organizations are an understudied group. Some of the influences on their decisions may be unique to healthcare. This study considers how to integrate research knowledge effectively into healthcare managers' decision making, and how to manage and integrate information that will include community data. This first phase in a two-phase mixed methods research study used a qualitative, multiple case studies design. Nineteen semi-structured interviews were undertaken using the critical incident technique. Interview transcripts were analysed using the NatCen Framework. One theme represented ;information and decisions'. Cases were determined to involve complex multi-level, multi-situational decisions with participants in practical rather than ceremonial work roles. Most considered organizational knowledge in the first two decision phases and external knowledge, including research, in the third phase. All participants engaged in satisficing to some degree.

  12. Decision support modeling for sustainable food logistics management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soysal, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary

    For the last two decades, food logistics systems have seen the transition from traditional Logistics Management (LM) to Food Logistics Management (FLM), and successively, to Sustainable Food Logistics Management (SFLM). Accordingly, food industry has been subject to the recent

  13. A Practical Decision-Analysis Process for Forest Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Michael Rauscher; F. Thomas Lloyd; David L. Loftis; Mark J. Twery

    2000-01-01

    Many authors have pointed out the need to firm up the 'fuzzy' ecosystem management paradigm and develop operationally practical processes to allow forest managers to accommodate more effectively the continuing rapid change in societal perspectives and goals. There are three spatial scales where clear, precise, practical ecosystem management processes are...

  14. Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

    2009-01-01

    Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives

  15. Interdisciplinary study of reservoir compartments and heterogeneity. Final report, October 1, 1993--December 31, 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Kirk, C.

    1998-01-01

    A case study approach using Terry Sandstone production from the Hambert-Aristocrat Field, Weld County, Colorado was used to document the process of integration. One specific project goal is to demonstrate how a multidisciplinary approach can be used to detect reservoir compartmentalization and improve reserve estimates. The final project goal is to derive a general strategy for integration for independent operators. Teamwork is the norm for the petroleum industry where teams of geologists, geophysicists, and petroleum engineers work together to improve profits through a better understanding of reservoir size, compartmentalization, and orientation as well as reservoir flow characteristics. In this manner, integration of data narrows the uncertainty in reserve estimates and enhances reservoir management decisions. The process of integration has proven to be iterative. Integration has helped identify reservoir compartmentalization and reduce the uncertainty in the reserve estimates. This research report documents specific examples of integration and the economic benefits of integration.

  16. An intertemporal decision framework for electrochemical energy storage management

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Guannan; Chen, Qixin; Moutis, Panayiotis; Kar, Soummya; Whitacre, Jay F.

    2018-05-01

    Dispatchable energy storage is necessary to enable renewable-based power systems that have zero or very low carbon emissions. The inherent degradation behaviour of electrochemical energy storage (EES) is a major concern for both EES operational decisions and EES economic assessments. Here, we propose a decision framework that addresses the intertemporal trade-offs in terms of EES degradation by deriving, implementing and optimizing two metrics: the marginal benefit of usage and the average benefit of usage. These metrics are independent of the capital cost of the EES system, and, as such, separate the value of EES use from the initial cost, which provides a different perspective on storage valuation and operation. Our framework is proved to produce the optimal solution for EES life-cycle profit maximization. We show that the proposed framework offers effective ways to assess the economic values of EES, to make investment decisions for various applications and to inform related subsidy policies.

  17. Bringing the ecosystem services concept into marine management decisions, supporting ecosystems-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweddle, J. F.; Byg, A.; Davies, I.; Gubbins, M.; Irvine, K.; Kafas, A.; Kenter, J.; MacDonald, A.; Murray, R. B. O.; Potts, T.; Slater, A. M.; Wright, K.; Scott, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    The marine environment is under increasing use, putting pressure on marine ecosystems and increasing competition for space. New activities (e.g. renewable energy developments), evolving marine policies (e.g. implementation of marine protected areas), and climate change may drive changes in biodiversity and resulting ecosystem services (ES) that society and business utilise from coastal and marine systems. A process is needed that integrates ecological assessment of changes with stakeholder perceptions and valuation of ES, whilst balancing ease of application with the ability to deal with complex social-economic-ecological issues. The project "Cooperative participatory assessment of the impact of renewable technology on ecosystem services: CORPORATES" involved natural and social scientists, law and policy experts, and marine managers, with the aim of promoting more integrated decision making using ES concepts in marine management. CORPORATES developed a process to bring ES concepts into stakeholders' awareness. The interactive process, involving 2 workshops, employs interludes of knowledge exchange by experts on ecological processes underpinning ES and on law and policy. These enable mapping of benefits linked to activities, participatory system modelling, and deliberation of policy impacts on different sectors. The workshops were attended by industry representatives, regulatory/advisory partners, and other stakeholders (NGOs, SMEs, recreationalists, local government). Mixed sector groups produced new insights into links between activities and ES, and highlighted cross-sector concerns. Here we present the aspects of the process that successfully built shared understanding between industry and stakeholders of inter-linkages and interactions between ES, benefits, activities, and economic and cultural values. These methods provide an ES-based decision-support model for exchanging societal-ecological knowledge and providing stakeholder interaction in marine planning

  18. A dynamic decision model for portfolio investment and assets management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    QIAN Edward Y.; FENG Ying; HIGGISION James

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses a dynamic portfolio investment problem. It discusses how we can dynamically choose candidate assets, achieve the possible maximum revenue and reduce the risk to the minimum level. The paper generalizes Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and Sharpe's rule for investment decision. An analytical solution is presented to show how an institutional or individual investor can combine Markowitz's portfolio selection theory, generalized Sharpe's rule and Value-at-Risk(VaR) to find candidate assets and optimal level of position sizes for investment (dis-investment). The result shows that the generalized Markowitz's portfolio selection theory and generalized Sharpe's rule improve decision making for investment.

  19. DASEES: A Tripartite Decision Analysis Framework to Achieve Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society Growth and Management Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many of Societies management and growth decisions are often made without a balanced consideration of pertinent factors from environmental, economic and societal perspectives. All three of these areas are key players in many of the decisions facing societies as they strive to ope...

  20. Principles of Classroom Management: A Professional Decision-Making Model, 7th Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, James; Nolan, James F.

    2014-01-01

    This text takes a decision-making model approach to classroom management. It provides teachers with a very practical system to influence students to choose to behave productively and to strive for academic success. This widely used text presents an array of decision-making options that guide teachers in developing positive, pro-social classroom…

  1. Intelligent decision making in quality management theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Yanık, Seda

    2016-01-01

      This book presents recently developed intelligent techniques with applications and theory in the area of quality management. The involved applications of intelligence include techniques such as fuzzy sets, neural networks, genetic algorithms, etc. The book consists of classical quality management topics dealing with intelligent techniques for solving the complex quality management problems. The book will serve as an excellent reference for quality managers, researchers, lecturers and postgraduate students in this area. The authors of the chapters are well-known researchers in the area of quality management.  .

  2. Understanding satellite-based monthly-to-seasonal reservoir outflow estimation as a function of hydrologic controls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnema, Matthew; Sikder, Safat; Miao, Yabin; Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Ara Pervin, Ismat; Mahbubur Rahman, S. M.; Lee, Hyongki

    2016-05-01

    Growing population and increased demand for water is causing an increase in dam and reservoir construction in developing nations. When rivers cross international boundaries, the downstream stakeholders often have little knowledge of upstream reservoir operation practices. Satellite remote sensing in the form of radar altimetry and multisensor precipitation products can be used as a practical way to provide downstream stakeholders with the fundamentally elusive upstream information on reservoir outflow needed to make important and proactive water management decisions. This study uses a mass balance approach of three hydrologic controls to estimate reservoir outflow from satellite data at monthly and annual time scales: precipitation-induced inflow, evaporation, and reservoir storage change. Furthermore, this study explores the importance of each of these hydrologic controls to the accuracy of outflow estimation. The hydrologic controls found to be unimportant could potentially be neglected from similar future studies. Two reservoirs were examined in contrasting regions of the world, the Hungry Horse Reservoir in a mountainous region in northwest U.S. and the Kaptai Reservoir in a low-lying, forested region of Bangladesh. It was found that this mass balance method estimated the annual outflow of both reservoirs with reasonable skill. The estimation of monthly outflow from both reservoirs was however less accurate. The Kaptai basin exhibited a shift in basin behavior resulting in variable accuracy across the 9 year study period. Monthly outflow estimation from Hungry Horse Reservoir was compounded by snow accumulation and melt processes, reflected by relatively low accuracy in summer and fall, when snow processes control runoff. Furthermore, it was found that the important hydrologic controls for reservoir outflow estimation at the monthly time scale differs between the two reservoirs, with precipitation-induced inflow being the most important control for the Kaptai

  3. Preventative disease management and grower decision making: A case study of California wine-grape growers

    Science.gov (United States)

    We examined the adoption and timing of preventative grapevine trunk disease-management practices among agricultural decision-makers (growers) in California. These diseases (Botryosphaeria dieback, Esca, Eutypa dieback, Phomopsis dieback) significantly diminish vineyard productivity and longevity. Gi...

  4. A Belief Network Decision Support Method Applied to Aerospace Surveillance and Battle Management Projects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Staker, R

    2003-01-01

    This report demonstrates the application of a Bayesian Belief Network decision support method for Force Level Systems Engineering to a collection of projects related to Aerospace Surveillance and Battle Management...

  5. Waste Management Decision-Making Process During a Homeland Security Incident Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    A step-by-step guide on how to make waste management-related decisions including how waste can be minimized, collected and treated, as well as where waste can be sent for staging, storage and final disposal.

  6. Fusion methodologies in crisis management higher level fusion and decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Scott, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This book emphasizes a contemporary view on the role of higher level fusion in designing crisis management systems. It provides the formal foundations, architecture, and implementation strategies required for building dynamic current and future situational pictures. It goes on to discuss the state-of-the-art computational approaches to designing such processes and their inherent challenges. This book integrates recent advances in decision theory with those in fusion methodology to define an end-to-end framework for decision support in crisis management. The text discusses modern fusion and decision support methods for dealing with heterogeneous and often unreliable, low fidelity, contradictory, and redundant data and information, as well as rare, unknown, unconventional or even unimaginable critical situations. The book also examines the role of context in situation management, cognitive aspects of decision making and situation management, approaches to domain representation, visualization, as well as the rol...

  7. Reconsidering information management roles and capabilities in disaster response decision-making units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    When disaster strikes, the emerging task environment requires relief agencies to transform from autonomous mono-disciplinary organizations into interdependent multidisciplinary decision-making units. Evaluation studies reveal that adaptation of information management to the changing task environment

  8. Decision Support for Software Process Management Teams: An Intelligent Software Agent Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Church, Lori

    2000-01-01

    ... to market, eliminate redundancy, and ease job stress. This thesis proposes a conceptual model for software process management decision support in the form of an intelligent software agent network...

  9. Statistical Decision Support Tools for System-Oriented Runway Management, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The feasibility of developing a statistical decision support system for traffic flow management in the terminal area and runway load balancing was demonstrated in...

  10. A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotson, G Scott; Hudson, Naomi L; Maier, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management.

  11. An Evaluation on Factors Influencing Decision making for Malaysia Disaster Management: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubir, S. N. A.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Mustapha, K. N. M.; Che Muda, Z.; Ghazali, A.; Hakimie, H.

    2017-12-01

    For the past few years, natural disaster has been the subject of debate in disaster management especially in flood disaster. Each year, natural disaster results in significant loss of life, destruction of homes and public infrastructure, and economic hardship. Hence, an effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life saving. The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic to decision making for flood disaster management in Malaysia. The key elements of decision making in the disaster management were studied based on the literature. Questionnaire surveys were administered among lead agencies at East Coast of Malaysia in the state of Kelantan and Pahang. A total of 307 valid responses had been obtained for further analysis. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were carried out to analyse the measurement model involved in the study. The CFA for second-order reflective and first-order reflective measurement model indicates that approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic have a significant and direct effect on decision making during disaster. The results from this study showed that decision- making during disaster is an important element for disaster management to necessitate a successful collaborative decision making. The measurement model is accepted to proceed with further analysis known as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and can be assessed for the future research.

  12. Information identification, evaluation and utilisation for decision-making by managers in South West Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omotola Osunrinde

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Managers’ organisational decisions and subsequent actions flow from their understanding of the business environment in which they operate. This study sought to understand how managers in various organisations identify, evaluate and use information for effective current and future decision-making. Objectives: The study focused on the types of information needed by managers for decision-making, the methods used to identify and acquire the information and the sources of information consulted, their satisfaction with the information used and their decision-making behaviours. Methods: The study employed descriptive study design. Simple random sampling was used. A pre-tested self-administered questionnaire was used to gather information from 219 managers, randomly selected from the registers of the Ibadan, Abeokuta and Lagos chapters of Nigerian Institute of Management. Results: Results indicated that the types of information considered very important for decision-making included industry information followed by government policies and economic development/forecasts. Conclusion: Investigation revealed the extent of information identification, information evaluation and information utilisation individually predict the perceived effectiveness of decision-making by the managers. Nevertheless, information evaluation was found to have greater predictive relationship with perceived effectiveness of decision-making than information use and information identification.

  13. A novel sustainable decision making model for municipal solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, M.-L.; Ma Hwongwen; Yang, W.-F.

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews several models developed to support decision making in municipal solid waste management (MSWM). The concepts underlying sustainable MSWM models can be divided into two categories: one incorporates social factors into decision making methods, and the other includes public participation in the decision-making process. The public is only apprised or takes part in discussion, and has little effect on decision making in most research efforts. Few studies have considered public participation in the decision-making process, and the methods have sought to strike a compromise between concerned criteria, not between stakeholders. However, the source of the conflict arises from the stakeholders' complex web of value. Such conflict affects the feasibility of implementing any decision. The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for MSWM to overcome these shortcomings. The proposed model combines multicriteria decision making (MCDM) and a consensus analysis model (CAM). The CAM is built up to aid in decision-making when MCDM methods are utilized and, subsequently, a novel sustainable decision making model for MSWM is developed. The main feature of CAM is the assessment of the degree of consensus between stakeholders for particular alternatives. A case study for food waste management in Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the practicality of this model

  14. Hospital managers' need for information in decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kidholm, Kristian; Ølholm, Anne Mette; Birk-Olsen, Mette

    2015-01-01

    Assessments of new health technologies in Europe are often made at the hospital level. However, the guidelines for health technology assessment (HTA), e.g. the EUnetHTA Core Model, are produced by national HTA organizations and focus on decision-making at the national level. This paper describes ...

  15. New decision analytical models for management of intracranial aneurysms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koffijberg, H.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis addresses decision analysis, cost-effectiveness models and the analysis of heterogeneity, applied to intracranial aneurysms and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Subarachnoid hemorrhage is a subset of stroke that usually occurs at relatively young age and has poor prognosis. Although, the

  16. Purchase decision involvement: Event management segments and related event behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney B. Warnick; David C. Bojanic

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this research was to examine the relationships between different levels of event purchase decision involvement (PDI) segments and their respective event behaviors (e.g., expenditures, travel behavior, event consumption and satisfaction). The specific purpose was to answer two major research questions: 1) Can PDI identify different levels or segments of...

  17. Decision-theoretic planning of clinical patient management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peek, Niels Bastiaan

    2000-01-01

    When a doctor is treating a patient, he is constantly facing decisions. From the externally visible signs and symptoms he must establish a hypothesis of what might be wrong with the patient; then he must decide whether additional diagnostic procedures are required to verify this hypothesis,

  18. Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results; Impact des changements climatiques sur les plans de gestion des reservoirs Saint-Francois et Aylmer : resultats preliminaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, R; Fortin, L G; Pugin, S; Cyr, J F; Picard, F; Poirier, C; Lacombe, P [Centre d' Expertise Hydrique du Quebec, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Service de la Securite des Barrages; Chaumont, D; Desrochers, G; Vescovi, L; Roy, R [Ouranos, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2004-09-01

    Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs.

  19. Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results; Impact des changements climatiques sur les plans de gestion des reservoirs Saint-Francois et Aylmer : resultats preliminaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turcotte, R.; Fortin, L.G.; Pugin, S.; Cyr, J.F.; Picard, F.; Poirier, C.; Lacombe, P. [Centre d' Expertise Hydrique du Quebec, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Service de la Securite des Barrages; Chaumont, D.; Desrochers, G.; Vescovi, L.; Roy, R. [Ouranos, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2004-09-01

    Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs.

  20. Electronic decision support for procurement management : evidence on whether computers can make better procurement decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, C.C.P.; Tazelaar, F.; Batenburg, R.S.

    2003-01-01

    We analyse how well purchasing managers are able to judge the likelihood of problems for a given purchasing transaction. The literature on clinical versus statistical prediction suggests that humans in general, including purchasing managers, are often outperformed by relatively simple statistical

  1. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    OpenAIRE

    Aliakbar Farhangi; Seyed Reza Seyed Javadin; Majid balali; Seyed Badredin Ahmadi

    2010-01-01

    Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran u...

  2. Climate Change Adaptation in a Mediterranean Semi-Arid Catchment: Testing Managed Aquifer Recharge and Increased Surface Reservoir Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Guyennon

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Among different uses of freshwater, irrigation is the most impacting groundwater resource, leading to water table depletion and possible seawater intrusion. The unbalance between the availability of water resources and demand is currently exacerbated and could become worse in the near future in accordance with climate change observations and scenarios provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC. In this context, Increasing Maximum Capacity of the surface reservoir (IMC and Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR are adaptation measures that have the potential to enhance water supply systems resiliency. In this paper, a multiple-users and multiple-resources-Water Supply System (WSS model is implemented to evaluate the effectiveness of these two adaptation strategies in a context of overexploited groundwater under the RCP 4.5 and the RCP 8.5 IPCC scenarios. The presented a case study that is located in the Puglia, a semi-arid region of South Italy characterized by a conspicuous water demand for irrigation. We observed that, although no significant long-term trend affects the proposed precipitation scenarios, the expected temperature increase highly impacts the WSS resources due to the associated increase of water demand for irrigation purposes. Under the RCP 4.5 the MAR scenario results are more effective than the IMC during long term wet periods (typically 5 years and successfully compensates the impact on the groundwater resources. Differently, under RCP 8.5, due to more persistent dry periods, both adaptation scenarios fail and groundwater resource become exposed to massive sea water intrusion during the second half of the century. We conclude that the MAR scenario is a suitable adaptation strategy to face the expected future changes in climate, although mitigation actions to reduce green-house gases are strongly required.

  3. Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

    2012-04-01

    Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other

  4. Integrated Water Basin Management Including a Large Pit Lake and a Water Supply Reservoir: The Mero-Barcés Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Jordi; Juncosa-Rivera, Ricardo; Hernández-Anguiano, Horacio; Muñoz-Ibáñez, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Water resource managers attempt to minimize conflicts among users, preserve the environment as much as possible, and satisfy user necessities at a minimum cost. Several European directives indirectly address mine restoration policies, with a goal of minimizing negative impacts and adding social and environmental value where possible. Water management must consider water sources, ecological flows, flood control, and variability in the demands for urban, industrial, and agricultural uses. In the context of the present study, the city of A Coruña is located in Galicia (NW Spain). The water supply system for this city and surrounding municipalities (~400.000 inhabitants) is based on the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir. In cases when precipitation is scarce (e.g. no rain for more than seven consecutive months) and there is a seasonal increase in demand significantly stress the supply system so that, as occurred in 2010, shortages and water supply restrictions need to be considered. This is a clear indication of that, at present, the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir has not enough capacity to cope with a scenario of increasing water demand (due to the vegetative and seasonal increase of population) and hydric stress likely connected with the widely acknowledged climate change. In the present context of monetary resources scarcity and society concern with respect large new public work projects, the construction of a new dam is challenging. However the opportunity provided by the recent flooding of the Meirama open pit (a large mine void that has been forced-flooded for its reclamation and it is located in the headwaters of one of the rivers draining towards the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir) proves to be a significant new asset that will help to improve the future water management scenarios under the acknowledged uncertain conditions. In this study we have studied in detail the hydrochemistry of the affected systems (lake, river and reservoir) in order to make clear whether or not the

  5. Decision Support Systems for Research and Management in Advanced Life Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, Luis F.

    2004-01-01

    Decision support systems have been implemented in many applications including strategic planning for battlefield scenarios, corporate decision making for business planning, production planning and control systems, and recommendation generators like those on Amazon.com(Registered TradeMark). Such tools are reviewed for developing a similar tool for NASA's ALS Program. DSS are considered concurrently with the development of the OPIS system, a database designed for chronicling of research and development in ALS. By utilizing the OPIS database, it is anticipated that decision support can be provided to increase the quality of decisions by ALS managers and researchers.

  6. Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

    2017-01-01

    Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

  7. Chapter 6: Incorporating rural community characteristics into forest management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindy S. Crandall; Jane L. Harrison; Claire A. Montgomery

    2014-01-01

    As part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project, we developed a methodology for managers to include potential community benefits when considering forest management treatments. To do this, we created a watershed impact score that scores each watershed (potential source of wood material) with respect to the communities that are likely to benefit from increased...

  8. Management information systems for electronic warfare command and decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Niekerk, B

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available information to allow them to manage their own spectrum, to identify threats, and to deny adversaries’ use of the spectrum. In this paper, the concepts of integrated electronic warfare and spectrum battle management are introduced, and the relevant information...

  9. Essentials of Risk Management. Strategic Decisions. Board Basics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonenstein, Burton; Kumin, Laura A.

    1998-01-01

    This booklet, intended for trustees of institutions of higher education, offers some instruction on the principles of risk management. Introductory information provides a definition of risk management, which is seen as a planning and strategic function, not solely as a financial or safety assessment. Individual sections then address the following…

  10. Site-Based Management: Avoiding Disaster While Sharing Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorenson, Larry Dean

    This paper argues that many site-based management practices do not represent true empowerment and are not founded on a consensual framework of values, goals, and priorities developed by educational stakeholders. In addition, they often lack clearly stated operating principles. The paper distinguishes between site-based management (SBM) and…

  11. Use of a fuzzy decision-making method in evaluating severe accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, M.; Moon, J.H.

    2002-01-01

    In developing severe accident management strategies, an engineering decision would be made based on the available data and information that are vague, imprecise and uncertain by nature. These sorts of vagueness and uncertainty are due to lack of knowledge for the severe accident sequences of interest. The fuzzy set theory offers a possibility of handling these sorts of data and information. In this paper, the possibility to apply the decision-making method based on fuzzy set theory to the evaluation of the accident management strategies at a nuclear power plant is scrutinized. The fuzzy decision-making method uses linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers to represent the decision-maker's subjective assessments for the decision alternatives according to the decision criteria. The fuzzy mean operator is used to aggregate the decision-maker's subjective assessments, while the total integral value method is used to rank the decision alternatives. As a case study, the proposed method is applied to evaluating the accident management strategies at a nuclear power plant

  12. Massachusetts reservoir simulation tool—User’s manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Sara B.

    2016-10-06

    IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey developed the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool to examine the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflows in Massachusetts by simulating the daily water balance of reservoirs. The simulation tool was developed to assist environmental managers to better manage water withdrawals in reservoirs and to preserve downstream aquatic habitats.

  13. The value of precision for image-based decision support in weed management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franco de los Ríos, Camilo; Pedersen, Søren Marcus; Papaharalampos, Haris

    2017-01-01

    Decision support methodologies in precision agriculture should integrate the different dimensions composing the added complexity of operational decision problems. Special attention has to be given to the adequate knowledge extraction techniques for making sense of the collected data, processing...... the information for assessing decision makers and farmers in the efficient and sustainable management of the field. Focusing on weed management, the integration of operational aspects for weed spraying is an open challenge for modeling the farmers’ decision problem, identifying satisfactory solutions...... for the implementation of automatic weed recognition procedures. The objective of this paper is to develop a decision support methodology for detecting the undesired weed from aerial images, building an image-based viewpoint consisting in relevant operational knowledge for applying precision spraying. In this way...

  14. "Making Do" Decisions: How Home Healthcare Personnel Manage Their Exposure to Home Hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Celia E; Polivka, Barbara J; Darragh, Amy; Lavender, Steven; Sommerich, Carolyn; Stredney, Donald

    2016-04-01

    This study describes the decision-making processes home healthcare personnel (HHP) use to manage their personal health and safety when managing hazards in client homes. A professionally diverse national sample of 68 HHP participated in individual semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, and described their decision making and strategies for hazard management in their work environments. HHP described 353 hazard management dilemmas within 394 specifically identified hazards, which were clustered within three broader categories: electrical/fire, slip/trip/lift, and environmental exposures. HHP described multiple types of "making do" decisions for hazard management solutions in which perceived and actual resource limitations constrained response options. A majority of hazard management decisions in the broader hazards categories (72.5%, 68.5%, and 63.5%, respectively) were classifiable as less than optimal. These findings stress the need for more support of HHPs, including comprehensive training, to improve HHP decision making and hazard management strategies, especially in context of resource constraints. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. North Slope Decision Support for Water Resource Planning and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schnabel, William; Brumbelow, Kelly

    2013-03-31

    The objective of this project was to enhance the water resource decision-making process with respect to oil and gas exploration/production activities on Alaska’s North Slope. To this end, a web-based software tool was developed to allow stakeholders to assemble, evaluate, and communicate relevant information between and amongst themselves. The software, termed North Slope Decision Support System (NSDSS), is a visually-referenced database that provides a platform for running complex natural system, planning, and optimization models. The NSDSS design was based upon community input garnered during a series of stakeholder workshops, and the end product software is freely available to all stakeholders via the project website. The tool now resides on servers hosted by the UAF Water and Environmental Research Center, and will remain accessible and free-of-charge for all interested stakeholders. The development of the tool fostered new advances in the area of data evaluation and decision support technologies, and the finished product is envisioned to enhance water resource planning activities on Alaska’s North Slope.

  16. How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an example of climate service for water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viel, Christian; Beaulant, Anne-Lise; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Céron, Jean-Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project EUPORIAS was a great opportunity for the climate community to co-design with stakeholders some original and innovative climate services at seasonal time scales. In this framework, Météo-France proposed a prototype that aimed to provide to water resource managers some tailored information to better anticipate the coming season. It is based on a forecasting system, built on a refined hydrological suite, forced by a coupled seasonal forecast model. It particularly delivers probabilistic river flow prediction on river basins all over the French territory. This paper presents the work we have done with "EPTB Seine Grands Lacs" (EPTB SGL), an institutional stakeholder in charge of the management of 4 great reservoirs on the upper Seine Basin. First, we present the co-design phase, which means the translation of classical climate outputs into several indices, relevant to influence the stakeholder's decision making process (DMP). And second, we detail the evaluation of the impact of the forecast on the DMP. This evaluation is based on an experiment realised in collaboration with the stakeholder. Concretely EPTB SGL has replayed some past decisions, in three different contexts: without any forecast, with a forecast A and with a forecast B. One of forecast A and B really contained seasonal forecast, the other only contained random forecasts taken from past climate. This placebo experiment, realised in a blind test, allowed us to calculate promising skill scores of the DMP based on seasonal forecast in comparison to a classical approach based on climatology, and to EPTG SGL current practice.

  17. Ethical issues faced by clinician/managers in resource-allocation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemieux-Charles, L; Meslin, E M; Aird, C; Baker, R; Leatt, P

    1993-01-01

    This article explores the ethical issues faced by clinicians with management responsibilities (clinician/managers) when making decisions related to resource allocation and utilization at a Canadian teaching hospital. Using a focus group method, 28 individuals participated in four homogeneous groups that included nurse managers, managers from other professional groups, and physician managers. Ethical issues that recurred throughout the discussions included fairness, concern with preventing harm, consumer/patient choice, balancing needs of different groups of patients, conflict between financial incentives and patient needs, and professional autonomy. The particular issue of conflict is analyzed from two perspectives--a theory of professional-bureaucratic roles and of obligation--that illustrate how both management and philosophical issues are related. The findings suggest that decentralizing resource allocation and utilization decisions does raise ethical issues for clinician/managers and that a better understanding of these issues can be obtained using an interdisciplinary perspective.

  18. A Probabilistic environmental decision support framework for managing risk and resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, D.P.; Webb, E.K.; Davis, P.A.; Conrad, S.H.

    1996-01-01

    The ability to make cost effective, timely decisions associated with waste management and environmental remediation problems has been the subject of considerable debate in recent years. On one hand, environmental decision makers do not have unlimited resources that they can apply to come to resolution on outstanding and uncertain technical issues. On the other hand, because of the possible impending consequences associated with these types of systems, avoiding making a decision is usually not an alternative either. Therefore, a structured, quantitative process is necessary that will facilitate technically defensible decision making in light of both uncertainty and resource constraints. An environmental decision support framework has been developed to provide a logical structure that defines a cost-effective, traceable, and defensible path to closure on decision regarding compliance and resource allocation. The methodology has been applied effectively to waste disposal problems and is being adapted and implemented in subsurface environmental remediation problems

  19. Real-time optimisation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richaud, Bertrand; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2011-01-01

    -time optimisation. First, the simulation-optimisation framework is applied for optimising reservoir operating rules. Secondly, real-time and forecast information is used for on-line optimisation that focuses on short-term goals, such as flood control or hydropower generation, without compromising the deviation...... in the downstream part of the Red River, and at the same time to increase hydropower generation and to save water for the dry season. The real-time optimisation procedure further improves the efficiency of the reservoir operation and enhances the flexibility for the decision-making. Finally, the quality......Multi-purpose reservoirs often have to be managed according to conflicting objectives, which requires efficient tools for trading-off the objectives. This paper proposes a multi-objective simulation-optimisation approach that couples off-line rule curve optimisation with on-line real...

  20. The conceptual definition of a crisis management decision support system CMDSS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schenker-Wicki, A.G.M.

    1990-01-01

    The Institute for Automation and Operations Research at the University of Fribourg has been charged by the Swiss government to design a concept for a Crisis Management Decision Support System CMDSS to evaluate acceptable countermeasures to reduce ingestion dose after an accidental release of radioactivity and to implement a prototype. The study is divided in two parts. In the first part all the necessary modules and techniques for efficient decision making, based on the most recent developments in decision theory, as well as the necessary structuring of the decision making process are discussed, while in the second part the plausibility of the evaluated system is tested using a case study. For the time being no empirical research has been carried out. The decision making concept presented in this book comprehends decision making on two different levels, a technical and a political one. The division of decision power corresponds to the Swiss legal prescriptions for accidental release of radioactivity. To guarantee decisions of high quality, as many countermeasures as possible have to be presented to the decision makers. Due to the difficulty of evaluating all the possible countermeasures an expert-system is provided for the decision makers to generate the space of alternatives. The use of an expert-system should further help to reduce systematically the huge amount of information which is characteristic in crises situations. To support the comparison and ranking of the different alternatives a multi-criteria approach, the PROMETHEE method, which is based upon outranking relationships, is used. Due to the complexity of the decision making process, its poorly defined mathematical context and the unwillingness of the decision makers to use a method which requires defined substitution rates, decision methods based on utility theory will not be applied in this study. The outranking approach presented in this book provides its users with more transparent and intelligible

  1. Fuzzy decision analysis for project scope change management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Shirazi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available It is very important to manage and control projects with the consideration of the triple constraints; namely time, cost and scope. It is also extremely important to manage the scope and all the procurements needed to complete any project. During the project’s lifecycle many changes take place, either positively or negatively, which should be controlled. If the changes are not controlled we may have scope creep that has negative effect on the project. It is commonly considered a negative incident, and thus, should be kept away from the project. By considering this concept, in this paper, we discuss scope change and managing scope and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is used in selecting the best strategy to manage scope change in projects.

  2. Simulating traffic for incident management and ITS investment decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-08-01

    UTPS-type models were designed to adequately support planning activities typical of the 1960s and 1970s. However, these packages were not designed to model intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and support incident management planning. To ov...

  3. Managing risk: clinical decision-making in mental health services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir-Cochrane, Eimear; Gerace, Adam; Mosel, Krista; O'Kane, Debra; Barkway, Patricia; Curren, David; Oster, Candice

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is a major component of contemporary mental health practice. Risk assessment in health care exists within contemporary perspectives of management and risk aversive practices in health care. This has led to much discussion about the best approach to assessing possible risks posed by people with mental health problems. In addition, researchers and commentators have expressed concern that clinical practice is being dominated by managerial models of risk management at the expense of meeting the patient's health and social care needs. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the risk assessment practices of a multidisciplinary mental health service. Findings indicate that mental health professionals draw on both managerial and therapeutic approaches to risk management, integrating these approaches into their clinical practice. Rather than being dominated by managerial concerns regarding risk, the participants demonstrate professional autonomy and concern for the needs of their clients.

  4. Using Decision Analysis to Select Facility Maintenance Management Information Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    Hart, A., & Ratnieks, F. L. (2002). Waste management in the leaf-cutting ant Atta colombica. Behavioral Ecology , 224-231. Heintz, J., Pollin ... Pollin , & Garret-Peltier, 2009). Maintenance departments can help themselves by implementing an information system to help better manage personnel...Wastewater collection system infrastructure research needs in the USA. Urban Water , 21-29. Takata, S., Kimura, F., van Houten, F., Westkamper, E

  5. [Knowledge management system for laboratory work and clinical decision support].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inada, Masanori; Sato, Mayumi; Yoneyama, Akiko

    2011-05-01

    This paper discusses a knowledge management system for clinical laboratories. In the clinical laboratory of Toranomon Hospital, we receive about 20 questions relevant to laboratory tests per day from medical doctors or co-medical staff. These questions mostly involve the essence to appropriately accomplish laboratory tests. We have to answer them carefully and suitably because an incorrect answer may cause a medical accident. Up to now, no method has been in place to achieve a rapid response and standardized answers. For this reason, the laboratory staff have responded to various questions based on their individual knowledge. We began to develop a knowledge management system to promote the knowledge of staff working for the laboratory. This system is a type of knowledge base for assisting the work, such as inquiry management, laboratory consultation, process management, and clinical support. It consists of several functions: guiding laboratory test information, managing inquiries from medical staff, reporting results of patient consultation, distributing laboratory staffs notes, and recording guidelines for laboratory medicine. The laboratory test information guide has 2,000 records of medical test information registered in the database with flexible retrieval. The inquiry management tool provides a methos to record all questions, answer easily, and retrieve cases. It helps staff to respond appropriately in a short period of time. The consulting report system treats patients' claims regarding medical tests. The laboratory staffs notes enter a file management system so they can be accessed to aid in clinical support. Knowledge sharing using this function can achieve the transition from individual to organizational learning. Storing guidelines for laboratory medicine will support EBM. Finally, it is expected that this system will support intellectual activity concerning laboratory work and contribute to the practice of knowledge management for clinical work support.

  6. Fuzzy decision analysis for project scope change management

    OpenAIRE

    Farshad Shirazi; Hamed Kazemipoor; Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

    2017-01-01

    It is very important to manage and control projects with the consideration of the triple constraints; namely time, cost and scope. It is also extremely important to manage the scope and all the procurements needed to complete any project. During the project’s lifecycle many changes take place, either positively or negatively, which should be controlled. If the changes are not controlled we may have scope creep that has negative effect on the project. It is commonly considered a negative incid...

  7. Managing Environmental Interests: Decision Patterns within the Italian Legal System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fracchia, F.

    2008-01-01

    The article deals with the main patterns established by the Italian legal system with respect to the decisions regarding environmental issues. After outlining the most important theories related to the problem of the juridical definition of the environment, as well as the constitutional context, which assigns the environmental protection to the competence of the State, the analysis singles out five different models. The first one is the result of the application of the environmental principles established by the European sources and enforced by the Italian Law; in this regard, in particular, the precautionary principle interferes with the usual way through which the Public Entities take their final decisions. The second pattern embodies the idea according to which the environment is a prominent value, capable of prevailing over other values and interests. The third one, starting from the same assertion (the environmental interest must win), adds that it must only be assessed by technical bodies with a specific competence. The fourth model is based upon the premise that the environmental proceedings cannot be simplified, so that some legal tools such as 'Conferenza di Servizi', silence and so on, cannot be applied in this field. The last pattern considers the possibility for Bodies different from the State (such as the Regions) to regulate the environmental issues, thus introducing stricter levels of protection of the environment. The article underlines that the size of this competence strictly depends on the notion of protection of the environment that is used (in any case, the Constitutional Court, since the fundamental decision n. 407 of 26 July 2002, considering the environment as a sort of transversal matter, has ruled that important room for regional legislative power does exist). Very often there is a sort of subsidiarity, since in the first place the technical bodies have the competence to take care of the environmental interest, while the bureaucracy or the

  8. BEHAVIORAL DECISION-THEORY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT - ASSESSMENT AND RESOLUTION OF 4 SURVIVAL DILEMMAS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VLEK, C; KEREN, G

    Environmental degradation and the call for 'sustainable development' provide an extended context and new challenges for decision-theoretic research on risk assessment and management. We characterize environmental risk management as the resolution of four different types of 'survival' dilemmas in

  9. Beyond the lab: observations on the process by which science successfully informs management and policy decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores, S.

    2012-12-01

    Scientific findings inform management decisions and policy products through various ways, these include: synthesis reports, white papers, in-person and web-based seminars (webinars), communication from specialized staff, and seminal peer-reviewed journal articles. Scientists are often told that if they want their science to inform management decisions and policy products that they must: clearly and simply articulate discreet pieces of scientific information and avoid attaching advocacy messages to the science; however, solely relying on these tenants does not ensure that scientific products will infuse the realms of management and policy. The process by which science successfully informs management decisions and policy products rarely begins at the time the results come out of the lab, but rather, before the research is carried out. Having an understanding of the political climate, management needs, agency research agendas, and funding limitations, as well as developing a working relationship with the intended managers and policy makers are key elements to developing the kind of science results and products that often make an impact in the management and policy world. In my presentation I will provide case-studies from California (USA) to highlight the type of coastal, ocean and climate science that has been successful in informing management decisions and policy documents, as well as provide a state-level agency perspective on the process by which this occurs.

  10. Balancing Data, Time, and Expectations: The Complex Decision-­Making Environment of Enrollment Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Adam W.

    2016-01-01

    As a growing entity within higher education organizational structures, enrollment managers (EMs) are primarily tasked with projecting, recruiting, and retaining the student population of their campuses. Enrollment managers are expected by institutional presidents as well as through industry standards to make data-driven planning decisions to reach…

  11. Using Modern Digital Photography Tools to Guide Management Decisions on Forested Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craft, Brandon; Barlow, Rebecca; Kush, John; Hemard, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Forestland management depends on assessing changes that occur over time. Long-term photo point monitoring is a low-cost method for documenting these changes. Using forestry as an example, this article highlights the idea that long-term photo point monitoring can be used to improve many types of land management decision making. Guidance on…

  12. Structuring decisions for managing threatened and endangered species in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Arvai, Joseph; Gerber, Leah R

    2013-12-01

    The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision-aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science-based problem, we suggest that a clear decision-making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers' choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade-offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision-focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

  13. A water management decision support system contributing to sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horváth, Klaudia; van Esch, Bart; Baayen, Jorn; Pothof, Ivo; Talsma, Jan; van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan

    2017-04-01

    Deltares and Eindhoven University of Technology are developing a new decision support system (DSS) for regional water authorities. In order to maintain water levels in the Dutch polder system, water should be drained and pumped out from the polders to the sea. The time and amount of pumping depends on the current sea level, the water level in the polder, the weather forecast and the electricity price forecast and possibly local renewable power production. This is a multivariable optimisation problem, where the goal is to keep the water level in the polder within certain bounds. By optimizing the operation of the pumps the energy usage and costs can be reduced, hence the operation of the regional water authorities can be more sustainable, while also anticipating on increasing share of renewables in the energy mix in a cost-effective way. The decision support system, based on Delft-FEWS as operational data-integration platform, is running an optimization model built in RTC-Tools 2, which is performing real-time optimization in order to calculate the pumping strategy. It is taking into account the present and future circumstances. As being the core of the real time decision support system, RTC-Tools 2 fulfils the key requirements to a DSS: it is fast, robust and always finds the optimal solution. These properties are associated with convex optimization. In such problems the global optimum can always be found. The challenge in the development is to maintain the convex formulation of all the non-linear components in the system, i.e. open channels, hydraulic structures, and pumps. The system is introduced through 4 pilot projects, one of which is a pilot of the Dutch Water Authority Rivierenland. This is a typical Dutch polder system: several polders are drained to the main water system, the Linge. The water from the Linge can be released to the main rivers that are subject to tidal fluctuations. In case of low tide, water can be released via the gates. In case of high

  14. Improving management decision processes through centralized communication linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simanton, D. F.; Garman, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    Information flow is a critical element to intelligent and timely decision-making. At NASA's Johnson Space Center the flow of information is being automated through the use of a centralized backbone network. The theoretical basis of this network, its implications to the horizontal and vertical flow of information, and the technical challenges involved in its implementation are the focus of this paper. The importance of the use of common tools among programs and some future concerns related to file transfer, graphics transfer, and merging of voice and data are also discussed.

  15. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasoul Yousefpour

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1 take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2 evaluate alternative management decisions: the "no-change," the "reactive," the "trend-adaptive," and the "forward-looking adaptive" decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.

  16. Decision in Principle of the Council of State on the organisation of nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This Decision, which came into force on the date of its publication, contains general guidelines to be followed for nuclear waste management in nuclear facilities until the entry into force of special legislation on the organisational and economic aspects of such management. It provides in particular that radioactive waste 'producers' will bear financial responsibility for the waste they produce and must collect funds for waste management from the time their installation operates, while ensuring that the real value of these funds is maintained. During the period preceding the entry into force of the above-mentioned legislation, the terms of the Decision will be included in all permits for nuclear facilities. (NEA) [fr

  17. A methodological model to assist in the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botin, Jose A; Guzman, Ronald R; Smith, Martin L

    2011-01-01

    Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modeling of project N et Present Value (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project life cycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

  18. Strategic management accounting and decision making: A survey of the Nigerian Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins S. Oboh

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts an empirical examination of the practicality of strategic management accounting (SMA adoption in banks in Nigeria, a developing country. It investigates the extent of practice and contributions of SMA to strategic decision making. Survey data were obtained from 71 bank managers across 20 registered banks in Nigeria. Simple regression estimation technique and Pearson Chi-square test were used for data analysis. The results suggest that SMA is distinct in its features and orientation towards the practice of management accounting. The study found out that banks in Nigeria practice SMA; not as a concept, but as a principle of operation, and that SMA contributes significantly to strategic decision making in the area of competitive advantage and increased market share. The study offers value for banks in other developing economies in that it supports the argument that they can benefit from SMA adoption as part of banking strategies. Keywords: Strategic management accounting, Decision making, Market share, Banks, Nigeria

  19. 4. International reservoir characterization technical conference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-04-01

    This volume contains the Proceedings of the Fourth International Reservoir Characterization Technical Conference held March 2-4, 1997 in Houston, Texas. The theme for the conference was Advances in Reservoir Characterization for Effective Reservoir Management. On March 2, 1997, the DOE Class Workshop kicked off with tutorials by Dr. Steve Begg (BP Exploration) and Dr. Ganesh Thakur (Chevron). Tutorial presentations are not included in these Proceedings but may be available from the authors. The conference consisted of the following topics: data acquisition; reservoir modeling; scaling reservoir properties; and managing uncertainty. Selected papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology database.

  20. Keys to success for data-driven decision making: Lessons from participatory monitoring and collaborative adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent years have witnessed a call for evidence-based decisions in conservation and natural resource management, including data-driven decision-making. Adaptive management (AM) is one prevalent model for integrating scientific data into decision-making, yet AM has faced numerous challenges and limit...

  1. Nurse managers' decision-making in daily unit operation in peri-operative settings: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siirala, Eriikka; Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Lundgrén-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna; Junttila, Kristiina

    2016-09-01

    To describe the tactical and the operational decisions made by nurse managers when managing the daily unit operation in peri-operative settings. Management is challenging as situations change rapidly and decisions are constantly made. Understanding decision-making in this complex environment helps to develop decision support systems to support nurse managers' operative and tactical decision-making. Descriptive cross-sectional design. Data were collected from 20 nurse managers with the think-aloud method during the busiest working hours and analysed using thematic content analysis. Nurse managers made over 700 decisions; either ad hoc (n = 289), near future (n = 268) or long-term (n = 187) by nature. Decisions were often made simultaneously with many interruptions. Ad hoc decisions covered staff allocation, ensuring adequate staff, rescheduling surgical procedures, confirmation tangible resources and following-up the daily unit operation. Decisions in the near future were: planning of surgical procedures and tangible resources, and planning staff allocation. Long-term decisions were: human recourses, nursing development, supplies and equipment, and finances in the unit. Decision-making was vulnerable to interruptions, which sometimes complicated the managing tasks. The results can be used when planning decision support systems and when defining the nurse managers' tasks in peri-operative settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhuojun Yi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.

  3. Improving societal acceptance of rad waste management policy decisions: an approach based on complex intelligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Suman

    2008-01-01

    In today's context elaborate public participation exercises are conducted around the world to elicit and incorporate societal risk perceptions into nuclear policy Decision-Making. However, on many occasions, such as in the case of rad waste management, the society remains unconvinced about these decisions. This naturally leads to the questions: are techniques for incorporating societal risk perceptions into the rad waste policy decision making processes sufficiently mature? How could societal risk perceptions and legal normative principles be better integrated in order to render the decisions more equitable and convincing to society? Based on guidance from socio-psychological research this paper postulates that a critical factor for gaining/improving societal acceptance is the quality and adequacy of criteria for option evaluation that are used in the policy decision making. After surveying three rad waste public participation cases, the paper identifies key lacunae in criteria abstraction processes as currently practiced. A new policy decision support model CIRDA: Complex Intelligent Risk Discourse Abstraction model that is based on the heuristic of Risk-Risk Analysis is proposed to overcome these lacunae. CIRDA's functionality of rad waste policy decision making is modelled as a policy decision-making Abstract Intelligent Agent and the agent program/abstraction mappings are presented. CIRDA is then applied to a live (U.K.) rad waste management case and the advantages of this method as compared to the Value Tree Method as practiced in the GB case are demonstrated. (author)

  4. Promoting energy efficiency investments with risk management decision tools

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, Jerry

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews current capital budgeting practices and their impact on energy efficiency investments. The prevalent use of short payback 'rule-of-thumb' requirements to screen efficiency projects for risk is shown to bias investment choices towards 'sure bet' investments bypassing many profitable efficiency investment options. A risk management investment strategy is presented as an alternative to risk avoidance practices applied with payback thresholds. The financial industry risk management tool Value-at-Risk is described and extended to provide an Energy-Budgets-at-Risk or EBaR risk management analysis to convey more accurate energy efficiency investment risk information. The paper concludes with recommendations to expand the use of Value-at-Risk-type energy efficiency analysis.

  5. Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management. Planning for Effective Decision Making; Consequence Management and Transition to Recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    The collective experience of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Emergency Matters (WPNEM), and in particular, the experience from the International Nuclear Emergency Exercise (INEX) series, has shown that it is important to plan and to implement emergency response actions based on a guiding strategic vision. Within this context, Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management presents a framework of strategic planning elements to be considered by national emergency management authorities when establishing or enhancing processes for decision making, and when developing or implementing protection strategies. The focus is on nuclear or radiological emergency situations leading to complex preparedness and response conditions, involving multiple jurisdictions and significant international interfaces. The report is aimed at national emergency management authorities, international organisations and those who are seeking to improve the effectiveness of emergency management. Its goal is to provide insights into decision-making processes within existing emergency planning arrangements. It also highlights common areas of good practice in decision making. Specific areas for improvement, identified during the INEX-3 consequence management exercise, are included, particularly in support of decision making for countermeasures for consequence management and the transition to recovery. (authors)

  6. Military Service and Decision Quality in the Management of Knee Osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, Eric R; Titus, Alexander J; Keeney, Benjamin J; Goodney, Philip P; Lurie, Jon D; Ibrahim, Said A

    2018-05-18

    Decision quality measures the degree to which care decisions are knowledge-based and value-aligned. Because military service emphasizes hierarchy, command, and mandates some healthcare decisions, military service may attenuate patient autonomy in healthcare decisions and lower decision quality. VA is the nation's largest provider of orthopedic care. We compared decision quality in a sample of VA and non-VA patients seeking care for knee osteoarthritis. Our study sample consisted of patients newly referred to our orthopedic clinic for the management of knee osteoarthritis. None of the study patients were exposed to a knee osteoarthritis decision aid. Consenting patients were administered the Hip/Knee Decision Quality Instrument (HK-DQI). In addition, they were surveyed about decision-making preferences and demographics. We compared results to a non-VA cohort from our academic institution's arthroplasty database. The HK-DQI Knowledge Score was lower in the VA cohort (45%, SD = 22, n = 25) compared with the non-VA cohort (53%, SD = 21, n = 177) (p = 0.04). The Concordance Score was lower in the VA cohort (36%, SD = 49%) compared with the control cohort (70%, SD 46%) (p = 0.003). Non-VA patients were more likely to make a high-quality decision (p = 0.05). Non-VA patients were more likely to favor a shared decision-making process (p = 0.002). Decision quality is lower in Veterans with knee osteoarthritis compared with civilians, placing them at risk for lower treatment satisfaction and possibly unwarranted surgical utilization. Our future work will examine if this difference is from conditioned military service behaviors or confounding demographic factors, and if conventional shared decision-making techniques will correct this deficiency.

  7. The conceptual definition of a crisis management decision support system CMDSS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schenker-Wicki, A G.M.

    1990-01-01

    The Institute for Automation and Operations Research at the University of Fribourg has been charged by the Swiss government to design a concept for a Crisis Management Decision Support System CMDSS to evaluate acceptable countermeasures to reduce ingestion dose after an accidental release of radioactivity and to implement a prototype. The study is divided in two parts. In the first part all the necessary modules and techniques for efficient decision making, based on the most recent developments in decision theory, as well as the necessary structuring of the decision making process are discussed, while in the second part the plausibility of the evaluated system is tested using a case study. For the time being no empirical research has been carried out. The decision making concept presented in this book comprehends decision making on two different levels, a technical and a political one. The division of decision power corresponds to the Swiss legal prescriptions for accidental release of radioactivity. To guarantee decisions of high quality, as many countermeasures as possible have to be presented to the decision makers. Due to the difficulty of evaluating all the possible countermeasures an expert-system is provided for the decision makers to generate the space of alternatives. The use of an expert-system should further help to reduce systematically the huge amount of information which is characteristic in crises situations. To support the comparison and ranking of the different alternatives a multi-criteria approach, the PROMETHEE method, which is based upon outranking relationships, is used. Due to the complexity of the decision making process, its poorly defined mathematical context and the unwillingness of the decision makers to use a method which requires defined substitution rates, decision methods based on utility theory will not be applied in this study. (Abstract Truncated)

  8. Using Cognitive Work Analysis to fit decision support tools to nurse managers' work flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effken, Judith A; Brewer, Barbara B; Logue, Melanie D; Gephart, Sheila M; Verran, Joyce A

    2011-10-01

    To better understand the environmental constraints on nurse managers that impact their need for and use of decision support tools, we conducted a Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA). A complete CWA includes system analyses at five levels: work domain, decision-making procedures, decision-making strategies, social organization/collaboration, and worker skill level. Here we describe the results of the Work Domain Analysis (WDA) portion in detail then integrate the WDA with other portions of the CWA, reported previously, to generate a more complete picture of the nurse manager's work domain. Data for the WDA were obtained from semi-structured interviews with nurse managers, division directors, CNOs, and other managers (n = 20) on 10 patient care units in three Arizona hospitals. The WDA described the nurse manager's environment in terms of the constraints it imposes on the nurse manager's ability to achieve targeted outcomes through organizational goals and priorities, functions, processes, as well as work objects and resources (e.g., people, equipment, technology, and data). Constraints were identified and summarized through qualitative thematic analysis. The results highlight the competing priorities, and external and internal constraints that today's nurse managers must satisfy as they try to improve quality and safety outcomes on their units. Nurse managers receive a great deal of data, much in electronic format. Although dashboards were perceived as helpful because they integrated some data elements, no decision support tools were available to help nurse managers with planning or answering "what if" questions. The results suggest both the need for additional decision support to manage the growing complexity of the environment, and the constraints the environment places on the design of that technology if it is to be effective. Limitations of the study include the small homogeneous sample and the reliance on interview data targeting safety and quality. Copyright © 2011

  9. Applying decision trial and evaluation laboratory as a decision tool for effective safety management system in aviation transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifeanyichukwu Ebubechukwu Onyegiri

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, in the aviation industry, the weak engineering controls and lapses associated with safety management systems (SMSs are responsible for the seemingly unprecedented disasters. A previous study has confirmed the difficulties experienced by safety managers with SMSs and the need to direct research to this area of investigation for more insights and progress in the evaluation and maintenance of SMSs in the aviation industry. The purpose of this work is to examine the application of Decision Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL to the aviation industry in developing countries with illustration using the Nigerian aviation survey data for the validation of the method. The advantage of the procedure over other decision making methods is in its ability to apply feedback in its decision making. It also affords us the opportunity of breaking down the complex aviation SMS components and elements which are multi-variate in nature through the analysis of the contributions of the diverse system criteria from the perspective of cause and effects, which in turn yields easier and yet more effective aviation transportation accident pre-corrective actions. In this work, six revised components of an SMS were identified and DEMATEL was applied to obtain their direct and indirect impacts and influences on the overall SMS performance. Data collection was by the survey questionnaire, which served as the initial direct-relation matrix, coded in Matlab software for establishing the impact relation map (IRM. The IRM was then plotted in MS Excel spread-sheet software. From our results, safety structure and regulation has the highest impact level on an SMS with a corresponding positive relation level value. In conclusion, the results agree with those of previous researchers that used grey relational analysis. Thus, DEMATEL serves as a great tool and resource for the safety manager.

  10. Computerized clinical decision support systems for chronic disease management: a decision-maker-researcher partnership systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshanov, Pavel S; Misra, Shikha; Gerstein, Hertzel C; Garg, Amit X; Sebaldt, Rolf J; Mackay, Jean A; Weise-Kelly, Lorraine; Navarro, Tamara; Wilczynski, Nancy L; Haynes, R Brian

    2011-08-03

    The use of computerized clinical decision support systems (CCDSSs) may improve chronic disease management, which requires recurrent visits to multiple health professionals, ongoing disease and treatment monitoring, and patient behavior modification. The objective of this review was to determine if CCDSSs improve the processes of chronic care (such as diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of disease) and associated patient outcomes (such as effects on biomarkers and clinical exacerbations). We conducted a decision-maker-researcher partnership systematic review. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Ovid's EBM Reviews database, Inspec, and reference lists for potentially eligible articles published up to January 2010. We included randomized controlled trials that compared the use of CCDSSs to usual practice or non-CCDSS controls. Trials were eligible if at least one component of the CCDSS was designed to support chronic disease management. We considered studies 'positive' if they showed a statistically significant improvement in at least 50% of relevant outcomes. Of 55 included trials, 87% (n = 48) measured system impact on the process of care and 52% (n = 25) of those demonstrated statistically significant improvements. Sixty-five percent (36/55) of trials measured impact on, typically, non-major (surrogate) patient outcomes, and 31% (n = 11) of those demonstrated benefits. Factors of interest to decision makers, such as cost, user satisfaction, system interface and feature sets, unique design and deployment characteristics, and effects on user workflow were rarely investigated or reported. A small majority (just over half) of CCDSSs improved care processes in chronic disease management and some improved patient health. Policy makers, healthcare administrators, and practitioners should be aware that the evidence of CCDSS effectiveness is limited, especially with respect to the small number and size of studies measuring patient outcomes.

  11. Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John R.; Blank, Peter J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Fallon, Jane E.; Fallon, Frederick W.

    2013-01-01

    Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a convenient framework for making structured decisions when the management objective is focused on a collection of species. These models use replicate survey data that are often collected on managed lands. Occupancy can be modeled for each species as a function of habitat and other environmental features, and Bayesian methods allow for estimation and prediction of collective responses of groups of species to alternative scenarios of habitat management. We provide an example of this approach using data from breeding bird surveys conducted in 2008 at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, Maryland, evaluating the effects of eliminating meadow and wetland habitats on scrub-successional and woodland-breeding bird species using summed total occupancy of species as an objective function. Removal of meadows and wetlands decreased value of an objective function based on scrub-successional species by 23.3% (95% CI: 20.3–26.5), but caused only a 2% (0.5, 3.5) increase in value of an objective function based on woodland species, documenting differential effects of elimination of meadows and wetlands on these groups of breeding birds. This approach provides a useful quantitative tool for managers interested in structured decision making.

  12. Managing the university campus : Information to support real estate decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Heijer, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    In the past decade managing the university campus has become more complex and challenging, with many more stakeholders, opportunities and threats to consider. Decreasing public involvement and funding for universities puts pressure on the internal allocation of resources, comparing investments in

  13. The Strategic Association between Enterprise Content Management and Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alalwan, Jaffar Ahmad

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the increasing information overload and with the structured and unstructured data complexity, many organizations have implemented enterprise content management (ECM) systems. Published research on ECM so far is very limited and reports on ECM implementations have been scarce until recently (Tyrvainen et al. 2006). However, the little…

  14. Artificial Intelligence for Diabetes Management and Decision Support: Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, Ivan; Vehi, Josep

    2018-05-30

    Artificial intelligence methods in combination with the latest technologies, including medical devices, mobile computing, and sensor technologies, have the potential to enable the creation and delivery of better management services to deal with chronic diseases. One of the most lethal and prevalent chronic diseases is diabetes mellitus, which is characterized by dysfunction of glucose homeostasis. The objective of this paper is to review recent efforts to use artificial intelligence techniques to assist in the management of diabetes, along with the associated challenges. A review of the literature was conducted using PubMed and related bibliographic resources. Analyses of the literature from 2010 to 2018 yielded 1849 pertinent articles, of which we selected 141 for detailed review. We propose a functional taxonomy for diabetes management and artificial intelligence. Additionally, a detailed analysis of each subject category was performed using related key outcomes. This approach revealed that the experiments and studies reviewed yielded encouraging results. We obtained evidence of an acceleration of research activity aimed at developing artificial intelligence-powered tools for prediction and prevention of complications associated with diabetes. Our results indicate that artificial intelligence methods are being progressively established as suitable for use in clinical daily practice, as well as for the self-management of diabetes. Consequently, these methods provide powerful tools for improving patients' quality of life. ©Ivan Contreras, Josep Vehi. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 30.05.2018.

  15. Decision Making and Risk Management in Adventure Sports Coaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2013-01-01

    Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…

  16. Decision support system for outage management and automated crew dispatch

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Ning; Mousavi, Mirrasoul

    2018-01-23

    A decision support system is provided for utility operations to assist with crew dispatch and restoration activities following the occurrence of a disturbance in a multiphase power distribution network, by providing a real-time visualization of possible location(s). The system covers faults that occur on fuse-protected laterals. The system uses real-time data from intelligent electronics devices coupled with other data sources such as static feeder maps to provide a complete picture of the disturbance event, guiding the utility crew to the most probable location(s). This information is provided in real-time, reducing restoration time and avoiding more costly and laborious fault location finding practices.

  17. Centralized versus distributed reservoirs: an investigation of their implications on environmental flows and sustainable water resources management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Eriyagama

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Storage of surface water is widely regarded as a form of insurance against rainfall variability. However, creation of surface storage often endanger the functions of natural ecosystems, and, in turn, ecosystem services that benefit humans. The issues of optimal size, placement and the number of reservoirs in a river basin – which maximizes sustainable benefits from storage – remain subjects for debate. This study examines the above issues through the analysis of a range of reservoir configurations in the Malwatu Oya river basin in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The study produced multiple surface storage development pathways for the basin under different scenarios of environmental flow (EF releases and reservoir network configurations. The EF scenarios ranged from zero to very healthy releases. It is shown that if the middle ground between the two extreme EF scenarios is considered, the theoretical maximum safe yield from surface storage is about 65–70 % of the mean annual runoff (MAR of the basin. It is also identified that although distribution of reservoirs in the river network reduces the cumulative yield from the basin, this cumulative yield is maximized if the ratio among the storage capacities placed in each sub drainage basin is equivalent to the ratio among their MAR. The study suggests a framework to identify drainage regions having higher surface storage potential, to plan for the right distribution of storage capacity within a river basin, as well as to plan for EF allocations.

  18. Centralized versus distributed reservoirs: an investigation of their implications on environmental flows and sustainable water resources management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriyagama, Nishadi; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Udamulla, Lakshika

    2018-06-01

    Storage of surface water is widely regarded as a form of insurance against rainfall variability. However, creation of surface storage often endanger the functions of natural ecosystems, and, in turn, ecosystem services that benefit humans. The issues of optimal size, placement and the number of reservoirs in a river basin - which maximizes sustainable benefits from storage - remain subjects for debate. This study examines the above issues through the analysis of a range of reservoir configurations in the Malwatu Oya river basin in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The study produced multiple surface storage development pathways for the basin under different scenarios of environmental flow (EF) releases and reservoir network configurations. The EF scenarios ranged from zero to very healthy releases. It is shown that if the middle ground between the two extreme EF scenarios is considered, the theoretical maximum safe yield from surface storage is about 65-70 % of the mean annual runoff (MAR) of the basin. It is also identified that although distribution of reservoirs in the river network reduces the cumulative yield from the basin, this cumulative yield is maximized if the ratio among the storage capacities placed in each sub drainage basin is equivalent to the ratio among their MAR. The study suggests a framework to identify drainage regions having higher surface storage potential, to plan for the right distribution of storage capacity within a river basin, as well as to plan for EF allocations.

  19. Implications of Perioperative Team Setups for Operating Room Management Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doll, Dietrich; Kauf, Peter; Wieferich, Katharina; Schiffer, Ralf; Luedi, Markus M

    2017-01-01

    Team performance has been studied extensively in the perioperative setting, but the managerial impact of interprofessional team performance remains unclear. We hypothesized that the interplay between anesthesiologists and surgeons would affect operating room turnaround times, and teams that worked together over time would become more efficient. We analyzed 13,632 surgical cases at our hospital that involved 64 surgeons and 48 anesthesiologists. We detrended and adjusted the data for potential confounders including age, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, and surgical list (scheduled cases of specific surgical specialties). The surgical lists were categorized as ear, nose, and throat surgery; trauma surgery; general surgery; and gynecology. We assessed the relationship between turnaround times and assignment of different anesthesiologists to specific surgeons using a Monte Carlo simulation. We found significant differences in team performances among the different surgical lists but no team learning. We constructed managerial decision tables for the assignment of anesthesiologists to specific surgeons at our hospital. We defined a decision algorithm based on these tables. Our analysis indicated that had this algorithm been used in staffing the operating room for the surgical cases represented in our data, median turnaround times would have a reduction potential of 6.8% (95% confidence interval 6.3% to 7.1%). A surgeon is usually predefined for scheduled surgeries (surgical list). Allocation of the right anesthesiologist to a list and to a surgeon can affect the team performance; thus, this assignment has managerial implications regarding the operating room efficiency affecting turnaround times and thus potentially overutilized time of a list at our hospital.

  20. Applying voting theory in natural resource management: a case of multiple-criteria group decision support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laukkanen, Sanna; Kangas, Annika; Kangas, Jyrki

    2002-02-01

    Voting theory has a lot in common with utility theory, and especially with group decision-making. An expected-utility-maximising strategy exists in voting situations, as well as in decision-making situations. Therefore, it is natural to utilise the achievements of voting theory also in group decision-making. Most voting systems are based on a single criterion or holistic preference information on decision alternatives. However, a voting scheme called multicriteria approval is specially developed for decision-making situations with multiple criteria. This study considers the voting theory from the group decision support point of view and compares it with some other methods applied to similar purposes in natural resource management. A case study is presented, where the approval voting approach is introduced to natural resources planning and tested in a forestry group decision-making process. Applying multicriteria approval method was found to be a potential approach for handling some challenges typical for forestry group decision support. These challenges include (i) utilising ordinal information in the evaluation of decision alternatives, (ii) being readily understandable for and treating equally all the stakeholders in possession of different levels of knowledge on the subject considered, (iii) fast and cheap acquisition of preference information from several stakeholders, and (iv) dealing with multiple criteria.