WorldWideScience

Sample records for reservoir management decisions

  1. Decision Support System for Reservoir Management and Operation in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navar, D. A.

    2016-12-01

    Africa is currently experiencing a surge in dam construction for flood control, water supply and hydropower production, but ineffective reservoir management has caused problems in the region, such as water shortages, flooding and loss of potential hydropower generation. Our research aims to remedy ineffective reservoir management by developing a novel Decision Support System(DSS) to equip water managers with a technical planning tool based on the state of the art in hydrological sciences. The DSS incorporates a climate forecast model, a hydraulic model of the watershed, and an optimization model to effectively plan for the operation of a system of cascade large-scale reservoirs for hydropower production, while treating water supply and flood control as constraints. Our team will use the newly constructed hydropower plants in the Omo Gibe basin of Ethiopia as the test case. Using the basic HIDROTERM software developed in Brazil, the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) utilizes a combination of linear programing (LP) and non-linear programming (NLP) in conjunction with real time hydrologic and energy demand data to optimize the monthly and daily operations of the reservoir system. We compare the DSS model results with the current reservoir operating policy used by the water managers of that region. We also hope the DSS will eliminate the current dangers associated with the mismanagement of large scale water resources projects in Africa.

  2. Reservoir management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Satter, A.; Varnon, J.E.; Hoang, M.T.

    1992-01-01

    A reservoir's life begins with exploration leading to discovery followed by delineation of the reservoir, development of the field, production by primary, secondary and tertiary means, and finally to abandonment. Sound reservoir management is the key to maximizing economic operation of the reservoir throughout its entire life. Technological advances and rapidly increasing computer power are providing tools to better manage reservoirs and are increasing the gap between good and neutral reservoir management. The modern reservoir management process involves goal setting, planning, implementing, monitoring, evaluating, and revising plans. Setting a reservoir management strategy requires knowledge of the reservoir, availability of technology, and knowledge of the business, political, and environmental climate. Formulating a comprehensive management plan involves depletion and development strategies, data acquisition and analyses, geological and numerical model studies, production and reserves forecasts, facilities requirements, economic optimization, and management approval. This paper provides management, engineers geologists, geophysicists, and field operations staff with a better understanding of the practical approach to reservoir management using a multidisciplinary, integrated team approach

  3. Geothermal reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scherer, C.R.; Golabi, K.

    1978-02-01

    The optimal management of a hot water geothermal reservoir was considered. The physical system investigated includes a three-dimensional aquifer from which hot water is pumped and circulated through a heat exchanger. Heat removed from the geothermal fluid is transferred to a building complex or other facility for space heating. After passing through the heat exchanger, the (now cooled) geothermal fluid is reinjected into the aquifer. This cools the reservoir at a rate predicted by an expression relating pumping rate, time, and production hole temperature. The economic model proposed in the study maximizes discounted value of energy transferred across the heat exchanger minus the discounted cost of wells, equipment, and pumping energy. The real value of energy is assumed to increase at r percent per year. A major decision variable is the production or pumping rate (which is constant over the project life). Other decision variables in this optimization are production timing, reinjection temperature, and the economic life of the reservoir at the selected pumping rate. Results show that waiting time to production and production life increases as r increases and decreases as the discount rate increases. Production rate decreases as r increases and increases as the discount rate increases. The optimal injection temperature is very close to the temperature of the steam produced on the other side of the heat exchanger, and is virtually independent of r and the discount rate. Sensitivity of the decision variables to geohydrological parameters was also investigated. Initial aquifer temperature and permeability have a major influence on these variables, although aquifer porosity is of less importance. A penalty was considered for production delay after the lease is granted.

  4. Stream, Lake, and Reservoir Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Jingjing; Mei, Ying; Chang, Chein-Chi

    2017-10-01

    This review on stream, lake, and reservoir management covers selected 2016 publications on the focus of the following sections: Stream, lake, and reservoir management • Water quality of stream, lake, and reservoirReservoir operations • Models of stream, lake, and reservoir • Remediation and restoration of stream, lake, and reservoir • Biota of stream, lake, and reservoir • Climate effect of stream, lake, and reservoir.

  5. Reservoir Engineering Management Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Howard, J.H.; Schwarz, W.J.

    1977-12-14

    The Reservoir Engineering Management Program being conducted at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory includes two major tasks: 1) the continuation of support to geothermal reservoir engineering related work, started under the NSF-RANN program and transferred to ERDA at the time of its formation; 2) the development and subsequent implementation of a broad plan for support of research in topics related to the exploitation of geothermal reservoirs. This plan is now known as the GREMP plan. Both the NSF-RANN legacies and GREMP are in direct support of the DOE/DGE mission in general and the goals of the Resource and Technology/Resource Exploitation and Assessment Branch in particular. These goals are to determine the magnitude and distribution of geothermal resources and reduce risk in their exploitation through improved understanding of generically different reservoir types. These goals are to be accomplished by: 1) the creation of a large data base about geothermal reservoirs, 2) improved tools and methods for gathering data on geothermal reservoirs, and 3) modeling of reservoirs and utilization options. The NSF legacies are more research and training oriented, and the GREMP is geared primarily to the practical development of the geothermal reservoirs. 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  6. Sediment management for reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, A.

    2005-01-01

    All natural lakes and reservoirs whether on rivers, tributaries or off channel storages are doomed to be sited up. Pakistan has two major reservoirs of Tarbela and Managla and shallow lake created by Chashma Barrage. Tarbela and Mangla Lakes are losing their capacities ever since first impounding, Tarbela since 1974 and Mangla since 1967. Tarbela Reservoir receives average annual flow of about 62 MAF and sediment deposits of 0.11 MAF whereas Mangla gets about 23 MAF of average annual flows and is losing its storage at the rate of average 34,000 MAF annually. The loss of storage is a great concern and studies for Tarbela were carried out by TAMS and Wallingford to sustain its capacity whereas no study has been done for Mangla as yet except as part of study for Raised Mangla, which is only desk work. Delta of Tarbala reservoir has advanced to about 6.59 miles (Pivot Point) from power intakes. In case of liquefaction of delta by tremor as low as 0.12g peak ground acceleration the power tunnels I, 2 and 3 will be blocked. Minimum Pool of reservoir is being raised so as to check the advance of delta. Mangla delta will follow the trend of Tarbela. Tarbela has vast amount of data as reservoir is surveyed every year, whereas Mangla Reservoir survey was done at five-year interval, which has now been proposed .to be reduced to three-year interval. In addition suspended sediment sampling of inflow streams is being done by Surface Water Hydrology Project of WAPDA as also some bed load sampling. The problem of Chasma Reservoir has also been highlighted, as it is being indiscriminately being filled up and drawdown several times a year without regard to its reaction to this treatment. The Sediment Management of these reservoirs is essential and the paper discusses pros and cons of various alternatives. (author)

  7. Hydrological ensemble predictions for reservoir inflow management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalachori, Ioanna; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joel

    2013-04-01

    Hydrologic forecasting is a topic of special importance for a variety of users with different purposes. It concerns operational hydrologists interested in forecasting hazardous events (eg., floods and droughts) for early warning and prevention, as well as planners and managers searching to optimize the management of water resources systems at different space-time scales. The general aim of this study is to investigate the benefits of using hydrological ensemble predictions for reservoir inflow management. Ensemble weather forecasts are used as input to a hydrologic forecasting model and daily ensemble streamflow forecasts are generated up to a lead time of 7 days. Forecasts are then integrated into a heuristic decision model for reservoir management procedures. Performance is evaluated in terms of potential gain in energy production. The sensitivity of the results to various reservoir characteristics and future streamflow scenarios is assessed. A set of 11 catchments in France is used to illustrate the added value of ensemble streamflow forecasts for reservoir management.

  8. Assessment of Spatial Interpolation Methods to Map the Bathymetry of an Amazonian Hydroelectric Reservoir to Aid in Decision Making for Water Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Curtarelli

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The generation of reliable information for improving the understanding of hydroelectric reservoir dynamics is fundamental for guiding decision-makers to implement best management practices. In this way, we assessed the performance of different interpolation algorithms to map the bathymetry of the Tucuruí hydroelectric reservoir, located in the Brazilian Amazon, as an aid to manage and operate Amazonian reservoirs. We evaluated three different deterministic and one geostatistical algorithms. The performance of the algorithms was assessed through cross-validation and Monte Carlo Simulation. Finally, operational information was derived from the bathymetric grid with the best performance. The results showed that all interpolation methods were able to map important bathymetric features. The best performance was obtained with the geostatistical method (RMSE = 0.92 m. The information derived from the bathymetric map (e.g., the level-area and level-volume diagram and the three-dimensional grid will allow for optimization of operational monitoring of the Tucuruí hydroelectric reservoir as well as the development of three-dimensional modeling studies.

  9. Metal and physico-chemical variations at a hydroelectric reservoir analyzed by Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks: environmental management and policy/decision-making tools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalcante, Y L; Hauser-Davis, R A; Saraiva, A C F; Brandão, I L S; Oliveira, T F; Silveira, A M

    2013-01-01

    This paper compared and evaluated seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters and metals at a hydroelectric power station reservoir by applying Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) statistical techniques. A Factor Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables: the first factor was composed of elements Ca, K, Mg and Na, and the second by Chemical Oxygen Demand. The ANN showed 100% correct classifications in training and validation samples. Physico-chemical analyses showed that water pH values were not statistically different between the dry and rainy seasons, while temperature, conductivity, alkalinity, ammonia and DO were higher in the dry period. TSS, hardness and COD, on the other hand, were higher during the rainy season. The statistical analyses showed that Ca, K, Mg and Na are directly connected to the Chemical Oxygen Demand, which indicates a possibility of their input into the reservoir system by domestic sewage and agricultural run-offs. These statistical applications, thus, are also relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, to identify which factors should be further studied and/or modified to recover degraded or contaminated water bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. APPLICATION OF INTEGRATED RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT AND RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jack Bergeron; Tom Blasingame; Louis Doublet; Mohan Kelkar; George Freeman; Jeff Callard; David Moore; David Davies; Richard Vessell; Brian Pregger; Bill Dixon; Bryce Bezant

    2000-03-01

    , and to monitor pressure and preferential fluid movement in the reservoir is demonstrated. These techniques are: long-term production and injection data analysis, pressure transient analysis, and advanced open and cased hole well log analysis. The major contribution of this project is to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

  11. Distributed snow data as a tool to inform water management decisions: Using Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) at the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite National Park, City and County of San Francisco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, C. B.

    2016-12-01

    The timing and magnitude of spring snowmelt and runoff is critical in managing reservoirs in the Western United States. The Hetch Hetchy Reservoir in Yosemite National Park provides drinking water for 2.6 million customers in over 30 communities in the San Francisco Bay Area. Power generation from Hetch Hetchy meets the municipal load of the City and County of San Francisco. Water from the Hetch Hetchy Reservoir is also released in the Tuolumne River, supporting critical ecosystems in Yosemite National Park and the Stanislaus National Forest. Better predictions of long (seasonal) and short (weekly) term streamflow allow for more secure water resource planning, earlier power generation and ecologically beneficial releases from the Reservoir. Hetch Hetchy Reservoir is fed by snow dominated watersheds in the Sierra Mountains. Better knowledge of snowpack conditions allow for better predictions of inflows, both at the seasonal and at the weekly time scales. The ASO project has provided the managers of Hetch Hetchy Reservoir with high resolution estimates of total snowpack and snowpack distribution in the 460 mi2 Hetch Hetchy. We show that there is a tight correlation between snowpack estimates and future streamflow, allowing earlier, more confident operational decisions. We also show how distributed SWE estimates were used to develop and test a hydrologic model of the system (PRMS). This model, calibrated directly to snowpack conditions, is shown to correctly simulate snowpack volume and distribution, as well as streamflow patterns.

  12. Some practical aspects of reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fowler, M.L.; Young, M.A.; Cole, E.L.; Madden, M.P. [BDM-Oklahoma, Bartlesville, OK (United States)

    1996-09-01

    The practical essence of reservoir management is the optimal application of available resources-people, equipment, technology, and money to maximize profitability and recovery. Success must include knowledge and consideration of (1) the reservoir system, (2) the technologies available, and (3) the reservoir management business environment. Two Reservoir Management Demonstration projects (one in a small, newly-discovered field and one in a large, mature water-flood) implemented by the Department of Energy through BDM-Oklahoma illustrate the diversity of situations suited for reservoir management efforts. Project teams made up of experienced engineers, geoscientists, and other professionals arrived at an overall reservoir management strategy for each field. in 1993, Belden & Blake Corporation discovered a regionally significant oil reservoir (East Randolph Field) in the Cambrian Rose Run formation in Portage County, Ohio. Project objectives are to improve field operational economics and optimize oil recovery. The team focused on characterizing the reservoir geology and analyzing primary production and reservoir data to develop simulation models. Historical performance was simulated and predictions were made to assess infill drilling, water flooding, and gas repressurization. The Citronelle Field, discovered in 1955 in Mobile County, Alabama, has produced 160 million barrels from fluvial sandstones of the Cretaceous Rodessa formation. Project objectives are to address improving recovery through waterflood optimization and problems related to drilling, recompletions, production operations, and regulatory and environmental issues. Initial efforts focused on defining specific problems and on defining a geographic area within the field where solutions might best be pursued. Geologic and reservoir models were used to evaluate past performance and to investigate improved recovery operations.

  13. The role of reservoir characterization in the reservoir management process (as reflected in the Department of Energy`s reservoir management demonstration program)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fowler, M.L. [BDM-Petroleum Technologies, Bartlesville, OK (United States); Young, M.A.; Madden, M.P. [BDM-Oklahoma, Bartlesville, OK (United States)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    Optimum reservoir recovery and profitability result from guidance of reservoir practices provided by an effective reservoir management plan. Success in developing the best, most appropriate reservoir management plan requires knowledge and consideration of (1) the reservoir system including rocks, and rock-fluid interactions (i.e., a characterization of the reservoir) as well as wellbores and associated equipment and surface facilities; (2) the technologies available to describe, analyze, and exploit the reservoir; and (3) the business environment under which the plan will be developed and implemented. Reservoir characterization is the essential to gain needed knowledge of the reservoir for reservoir management plan building. Reservoir characterization efforts can be appropriately scaled by considering the reservoir management context under which the plan is being built. Reservoir management plans de-optimize with time as technology and the business environment change or as new reservoir information indicates the reservoir characterization models on which the current plan is based are inadequate. BDM-Oklahoma and the Department of Energy have implemented a program of reservoir management demonstrations to encourage operators with limited resources and experience to learn, implement, and disperse sound reservoir management techniques through cooperative research and development projects whose objectives are to develop reservoir management plans. In each of the three projects currently underway, careful attention to reservoir management context assures a reservoir characterization approach that is sufficient, but not in excess of what is necessary, to devise and implement an effective reservoir management plan.

  14. Data assimilation in reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rommelse, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    The research presented in this thesis aims at improving computer models that allow simulations of water, oil and gas flows in subsurface petroleum reservoirs. This is done by integrating, or assimilating, measurements into physics-bases models. In recent years petroleum technology has developed

  15. Reservoir management under geological uncertainty using fast model update

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanea, R.; Evensen, G.; Hustoft, L.; Ek, T.; Chitu, A.; Wilschut, F.

    2015-01-01

    Statoil is implementing "Fast Model Update (FMU)," an integrated and automated workflow for reservoir modeling and characterization. FMU connects all steps and disciplines from seismic depth conversion to prediction and reservoir management taking into account relevant reservoir uncertainty. FMU

  16. Risk Decision Making Model for Reservoir Floodwater resources Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Floodwater resources utilization(FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. In order to safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C-D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu Province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found by using the risk decision making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.

  17. Model based management of a reservoir system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scharaw, B.; Westerhoff, T. [Fraunhofer IITB, Ilmenau (Germany). Anwendungszentrum Systemtechnik; Puta, H.; Wernstedt, J. [Technische Univ. Ilmenau (Germany)

    2000-07-01

    The main goals of reservoir management systems consist of prevention against flood water damages, the catchment of raw water and keeping all of the quality parameters within their limits besides controlling the water flows. In consideration of these goals a system model of the complete reservoir system Ohra-Schmalwasser-Tambach Dietharz was developed. This model has been used to develop optimized strategies for minimization of raw water production cost, for maximization of electrical energy production and to cover flood situations, as well. Therefore a proper forecast of the inflow to the reservoir from the catchment areas (especially flooding rivers) and the biological processes in the reservoir is important. The forecast model for the inflow to the reservoir is based on the catchment area model of Lorent and Gevers. It uses area precipitation, water supply from the snow cover, evapotranspiration and soil wetness data to calculate the amount of flow in rivers. The other aim of the project is to ensure the raw water quality using quality models, as well. Then a quality driven raw water supply will be possible. (orig.)

  18. A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alcoforado de Moraes, Márcia; Silva, Gerald; Siegmund-Schultze, Marianna

    2017-04-01

    The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm. A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose and present the first features of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform should include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In

  19. Increasing Waterflooding Reservoirs in the Wilmington Oil Field through Improved Reservoir Characterization and Reservoir Management, Class III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koerner, Roy; Clarke, Don; Walker, Scott; Phillips, Chris; Nguyen, John; Moos, Dan; Tagbor, Kwasi

    2001-08-07

    This project was intended to increase recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs, transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project.

  20. ASUD2- decision support system on Dnieper reservoirs operations taking into account environmental priorities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iritz, L.; Zheleznyak, M.; Dvorzhak, A.; Nesterov, A.; Zaslavsky, A.

    2003-04-01

    basis of the different optimisation criteria minimum of the distance to the trajectory of the water level given by decision of the Joint River Commission, minimum value of the water contamination parameters (DO, nutrients, phosphorus), maximum energy production, taking into account limitations from fishery, water intakes of irrigation and transport channels etc; -water releases from the reservoirs to maintain the recommended dynamics in the whole Dnieper Cascade; -integrated water quality parameters for all reservoirs and distributed water quality parameters for the two largest reservoirs (Kremenchug and Kachovka). The analyses based on economical criteria provides the cost-benefit evaluation for different reservoir management alternatives. The assessment takes into account energy production, industry, agriculture as well as the costs associated with ecological damages.

  1. Managing a hydro-energy reservoir: A policy approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Ackere, Ann; Ochoa, Patricia

    2010-01-01

    Liberalisation and privatisation have increased the need to gain more understanding into the management of hydro storage (HS) plants. We analyse what types of reservoir management policies enable an owner or a public authority to achieve their respective objectives. By 'policy' we understand simple, easily applicable decision rules, which enable a decision maker to decide when and how much to produce based on currently available information. We use a stylised deterministic simulation model of a hydro-power producer (HP) who behaves strategically. We study a non-liberalised market, where the authorities aim to minimise the total electricity cost for customers and a liberalised market where the HP attempts to maximise his contribution. This enables us to evaluate the impact of the liberalisation of HS production decisions on production volumes and electricity prices. We conclude that imposing rigid policies with the aim of limiting the potential for strategic behaviour can create incentives to produce only at very high prices throughout the year. This can lead to very high total costs, especially when the producer has most flexibility (large reservoirs combined with large turbine capacity). More surprisingly, we observe lower total production in a non-liberalised market. (author)

  2. Optimisation of decision making under uncertainty throughout field lifetime: A fractured reservoir example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Dan; Demyanov, Vasily; Christie, Mike; Bakay, Alexander; Gopa, Konstantin

    2016-10-01

    Assessing the change in uncertainty in reservoir production forecasts over field lifetime is rarely undertaken because of the complexity of joining together the individual workflows. This becomes particularly important in complex fields such as naturally fractured reservoirs. The impact of this problem has been identified in previous and many solutions have been proposed but never implemented on complex reservoir problems due to the computational cost of quantifying uncertainty and optimising the reservoir development, specifically knowing how many and what kind of simulations to run. This paper demonstrates a workflow that propagates uncertainty throughout field lifetime, and into the decision making process by a combination of a metric-based approach, multi-objective optimisation and Bayesian estimation of uncertainty. The workflow propagates uncertainty estimates from appraisal into initial development optimisation, then updates uncertainty through history matching and finally propagates it into late-life optimisation. The combination of techniques applied, namely the metric approach and multi-objective optimisation, help evaluate development options under uncertainty. This was achieved with a significantly reduced number of flow simulations, such that the combined workflow is computationally feasible to run for a real-field problem. This workflow is applied to two synthetic naturally fractured reservoir (NFR) case studies in appraisal, field development, history matching and mid-life EOR stages. The first is a simple sector model, while the second is a more complex full field example based on a real life analogue. This study infers geological uncertainty from an ensemble of models that are based on the carbonate Brazilian outcrop which are propagated through the field lifetime, before and after the start of production, with the inclusion of production data significantly collapsing the spread of P10-P90 in reservoir forecasts. The workflow links uncertainty

  3. The role of rainfall variability in reservoir storage management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Reservoir operation and management is usually patterned after the background of long standing water resources management experience. Reservoir management for optimum power production at any hydropower station requires constant assessment of the quantity of available water. The hydrographic responses of flow ...

  4. Multipurpose Water Reservoir Management: An Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís A. Scola

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The reservoirs that feed large hydropower plants should be managed in order to provide other uses for the water resources. Those uses include, for instance, flood control and avoidance, irrigation, navigability in the rivers, and other ones. This work presents an evolutionary multiobjective optimization approach for the study of multiple water usages in multiple interlinked reservoirs, including both power generation objectives and other objectives not related to energy generation. The classical evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II is employed as the basic multiobjective optimization machinery, being modified in order to cope with specific problem features. The case studies, which include the analysis of a problem which involves an objective of navigability on the river, are tailored in order to illustrate the usefulness of the data generated by the proposed methodology for decision-making on the problem of operation planning of multiple reservoirs with multiple usages. It is shown that it is even possible to use the generated data in order to determine the cost of any new usage of the water, in terms of the opportunity cost that can be measured on the revenues related to electric energy sales.

  5. The Role of Rainfall Variability in Reservoir Storage Management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bheema

    The objective is to develop functional hydrological relationship between (rainfall, inflow, reservoir storage and turbine releases) over the dam. This will provide scientific basis for operational decisions which can lead to optimum power plant utilization. 1.1. The Study Area. The study area is the Shiroro dam reservoir.

  6. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-04-01

    This project has used a multi-disciplinary approach employing geology, geophysics, and engineering to conduct advanced reservoir characterization and management activities to design and implement an optimized infill drilling program at the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit in Gaines County, Texas. The activities during the first Budget Period consisted of developing an integrated reservoir description from geological, engineering, and geostatistical studies, and using this description for reservoir flow simulation. Specific reservoir management activities were identified and tested. The geologically targeted infill drilling program currently being implemented is a result of this work. A significant contribution of this project is to demonstrate the use of cost-effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability shallow-shelf carbonate (SSC) reservoirs. The techniques that are outlined for the formulation of an integrated reservoir description apply to all oil and gas reservoirs, but are specifically tailored for use in the heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs of West Texas.

  7. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling, Class II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergeron, Jack; Blasingame, Tom; Doublet, Louis; Kelkar, Mohan; Freeman, George; Callard, Jeff; Moore, David; Davies, David; Vessell, Richard; Pregger, Brian; Dixon, Bill; Bezant, Bryce

    2000-03-16

    The major purpose of this project was to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

  8. Mrica Reservoir Sedimentation: Current Situation and Future Necessary Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puji Utomo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mrica Reservoir is one of many reservoirs located in Central Java that experienced a considerably high sedimentation during the last ten years. This condition has caused a rapid decrease in reservoir capacity. Various countermeasures have been introduced to reduce the rate of the reservoir sedimentation through catchment management and reservoir operation by means of flushing and/or dredging. However, the sedimentation remains intensive so that the fulfillment of water demand for electrical power generation was seriously affected. This paper presents the results of evaluation on the dynamics of the purpose of this research is to evaluate the sediment balance of the Mrica Reservoir based on two different scenarios, i.e. the existing condition and another certain type of reservoir management. The study on sediment balance was carried out by estimating the sediment inflow applying sheet erosion method in combination with the analysis of sediment rating curve. The measurement of the deposited sediment rate in the reservoir was conducted through the periodic echo sounding, whereas identification of the number of sediment that has been released from the reservoir was carried out through the observation on both flushing and dredging activities. The results show that during the last decade, the rate of the sediment inflow was approximately 5.869 MCM/year, whereas the released sediment from the reservoir was 4.097 MCM/year. In order to maintain the reservoir capacity, therefore, at least 1.772 MCM/year should be released from the reservoir by means of either flushing or dredging. Sedimentation management may prolong the reservoir’s service life to exceed the design life. Without sediment management, the lifetime of the reservoir would have finished by 2016, whereas with the proper management the lifetime may be extended to 2025.

  9. From eutrophic to mesotrophic: modelling watershed management scenarios to change the trophic status of a reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateus, Marcos; Almeida, Carina; Brito, David; Neves, Ramiro

    2014-03-12

    Management decisions related with water quality in lakes and reservoirs require a combined land-water processes study approach. This study reports on an integrated watershed-reservoir modeling methodology: the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to estimate the nutrient input loads from the watershed, used afterwards as boundary conditions to the reservoir model, CE-QUAL-W2. The integrated modeling system was applied to the Torrão reservoir and drainage basin. The objective of the study was to quantify the total maximum input load that allows the reservoir to be classified as mesotrophic. Torrão reservoir is located in the Tâmega River, one of the most important tributaries of the Douro River in Portugal. The watershed is characterized by a variety of land uses and urban areas, accounting for a total Waste Water Treatment Plants (WWTP) discharge of ~100,000 p.e. According to the criteria defined by the National Water Institute (based on the WWTP Directive), the Torrão reservoir is classified as eutrophic. Model estimates show that a 10% reduction in nutrient loads will suffice to change the state to mesotrophic, and should target primarily WWTP effluents, but also act on diffuse sources. The method applied in this study should provide a basis for water environmental management decision-making.

  10. Decision support for emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, V.

    1989-05-01

    A short introduction will be given to the Nordic project ''NKA/INF: Information Technology for Accident and Emergency Management'', which is now in its final phase. To perform evaluation of the project, special scenarious have been developed, and experiments based on these will be fulfilled and compared with experiments without use of the decision support system. Furthermore, the succeeding European project, ''IT Support for Emergency Management - ISEM'', with the purpose of developing a decision support system for complex and distributed decision making in emergency management in full scale, will be described and the preliminary conceptual model for the system will be presented. (author)

  11. Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

    2017-10-01

    The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir. Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  12. Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

    2017-11-13

    The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  13. Multi-objective game-theory models for conflict analysis in reservoir watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chih-Sheng

    2012-05-01

    This study focuses on the development of a multi-objective game-theory model (MOGM) for balancing economic and environmental concerns in reservoir watershed management and for assistance in decision. Game theory is used as an alternative tool for analyzing strategic interaction between economic development (land use and development) and environmental protection (water-quality protection and eutrophication control). Geographic information system is used to concisely illustrate and calculate the areas of various land use types. The MOGM methodology is illustrated in a case study of multi-objective watershed management in the Tseng-Wen reservoir, Taiwan. The innovation and advantages of MOGM can be seen in the results, which balance economic and environmental concerns in watershed management and which can be interpreted easily by decision makers. For comparison, the decision-making process using conventional multi-objective method to produce many alternatives was found to be more difficult. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Natural and human drivers of salinity in reservoirs and their implications in water supply operation through a Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, Eva; Gómez-Beas, Raquel; Linares-Sáez, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    changes from 3800 to 5100 μScm-1 in the deepest layers are found with a similar daily water inflow. On the other hand, when reservoir water level is low, salinity increases around 1000 μScm-1 are found with a 2 m water level falling. In view of the influence of water level in the reservoir dynamics, this factor should be considered when dam operation decisions are taken by managers in terms of satisfying the water demand. The results will be implemented in a Decision Support System that is being displayed in the Guadalhorce River and which includes prediction of water quantity and quality in the reservoir in terms of salinity, involving water level and water inflow forecasting as the main factors to control the state of the reservoir and therefore with implications in water management. This methodology could be implemented in other reservoirs with high salinity and be adapted to other substances (such as nutrients and heavy metals) associated to water inflow in water bodies where water quality and quantity are driven by human decisions factors besides natural factors such as floods and dynamics of flows in the reservoir.

  15. INCREASING WATERFLOOD RESERVES IN THE WILMINGTON OIL FIELD THROUGH IMPROVED RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott Walker; Chris Phillips; Roy Koerner; Don Clarke; Dan Moos; Kwasi Tagbor

    2002-02-28

    This project increased recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs. Transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington Field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project. This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate. Although these reservoirs have been waterflooded over 40 years, researchers have found areas of remaining oil saturation. Areas such as the top sand in the Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the western fault slivers of Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the bottom sands of the Tar Zone Fault Block V, and the eastern edge of Fault Block IV in both the Upper Terminal and Lower Terminal Zones all show significant remaining oil saturation. Each area of interest was uncovered emphasizing a different type of reservoir characterization technique or practice. This was not the original strategy but was necessitated by the different levels of progress in each of the project activities.

  16. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly progress report, June 13, 1995--September 12, 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pande, P.K.

    1995-09-12

    At this stage of the reservoir characterization research, the main emphasis is on the geostatistics and reservoir simulation. Progress is reported on geological analysis, reservoir simulation, and reservoir management.

  17. Group Decisions in Value Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christiono Utomo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This research deals with a technique to expedite group decision making during the selection of technical solutions for value management process. Selection of a solution from a set of alternatives is facilitated by evaluating using multicriteria decision making techniques. During the process, every possible solution is rated on criteria of function and cost. Function deals more with quality than with quantity, and cost can be calculated based on the theoretical time value of money. Decision-making techniques based on satisfying games are applied to determine the relative function and cost of solutions and hence their relative value. The functions were determined by function analysis system technique. Analytical hierarchy process was applied to decision making and life-cycle cost analysis were used to calculate cost. Cooperative decision making was shown to consist of identifying agreement options, analyzing, and forming coalitions. The objective was attained using the satisfying game model as a basis for two main preferences. The model will improve the value of decision regarding design. It further emphasizes the importance of performance evaluation in the design process and value analysis. The result of the implementation, when applied to the selection of a building wall system, demonstrates a process of selecting the most valuable technical solution as the best-fit option for all decision makers. This work is relevant to group decision making and negotiation, as it aims to provide a framework to support negotiation in design activity.

  18. New developments in high resolution borehole seismology and their applications to reservoir development and management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paulsson, B.N.P. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Single-well seismology, Reverse Vertical Seismic Profiles (VSP`s) and Crosswell seismology are three new seismic techniques that we jointly refer to as borehole seismology. Borehole seismic techniques are of great interest because they can obtain much higher resolution images of oil and gas reservoirs than what is obtainable with currently used seismic techniques. The quality of oil and gas reservoir management decisions depend on the knowledge of both the large and the fine scale features in the reservoirs. Borehole seismology is capable of mapping reservoirs with an order of magnitude improvement in resolution compared with currently used technology. In borehole seismology we use a high frequency seismic source in an oil or gas well and record the signal in the same well, in other wells, or on the surface of the earth.

  19. Developing an Intelligent Reservoir Flood Control Decision Support System through Integrating Artificial Neural Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, L. C.; Kao, I. F.; Tsai, F. H.; Hsu, H. C.; Yang, S. N.; Shen, H. Y.; Chang, F. J.

    2015-12-01

    Typhoons and storms hit Taiwan several times every year and cause serious flood disasters. Because the mountainous terrain and steep landform rapidly accelerate the speed of flood flow, rivers cannot be a stable source of water supply. Reservoirs become one of the most important and effective floodwater storage facilities. However, real-time operation for reservoir flood control is a continuous and instant decision-making process based on rules, laws, meteorological nowcast, in addition to the immediate rainfall and hydrological data. The achievement of reservoir flood control can effectively mitigate flood disasters and store floodwaters for future uses. In this study, we construct an intelligent decision support system for reservoir flood control through integrating different types of neural networks and the above information to solve this problem. This intelligent reservoir flood control decision support system includes three parts: typhoon track classification, flood forecast and adaptive water release models. This study used the self-organizing map (SOM) for typhoon track clustering, nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) for multi-step-ahead reservoir inflow prediction, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for reservoir flood control. Before typhoons landfall, we can estimate the entire flood hydrogragh of reservoir inflow by using SOM and make a pre-release strategy and real-time reservoir flood operating by using ANFIS. In the meanwhile, NARX can be constantly used real-time five-hour-ahead inflow prediction for providing the newest flood information. The system has been successfully implemented Typhoons Trami (2013), Fitow (2013) and Matmo (2014) in Shihmen Reservoir.

  20. Master plan: Guntersville Reservoir Aquatic Plant Management. Executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-12-31

    In 1989, Congress provided funding to start a five-year comprehensive project to manage aquatic plants in Guntersville Reservoir, to be jointly implemented by the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). TVA serves as the overall project coordinator and is the lead agency for this project. Known as the Joint Agency Guntersville Project (JAGP), the project will test and demonstrate innovative management technologies, and incorporate the most effective technologies into a comprehensive aquatic plant management plan for Guntersville Reservoir. The JAGP is intended to serve as a National Demonstration Project for aquatic plant management. As part of this JAGP, the Master Plan for Aquatic Plant Management for the Guntersville Reservoir Project, Alabama-Tennessee is authorized by Corps Contract Number DACW62-90-C-0067.

  1. Hydroeconomic optimization of reservoir management under downstream water quality constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo; Holm, Peter E.; Trapp, Stefan; Rosbjerg, Dan; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2015-10-01

    A hydroeconomic optimization approach is used to guide water management in a Chinese river basin with the objectives of meeting water quantity and water quality constraints, in line with the China 2011 No. 1 Policy Document and 2015 Ten-point Water Plan. The proposed modeling framework couples water quantity and water quality management and minimizes the total costs over a planning period assuming stochastic future runoff. The outcome includes cost-optimal reservoir releases, groundwater pumping, water allocation, wastewater treatments and water curtailments. The optimization model uses a variant of stochastic dynamic programming known as the water value method. Nonlinearity arising from the water quality constraints is handled with an effective hybrid method combining genetic algorithms and linear programming. Untreated pollutant loads are represented by biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and the resulting minimum dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is computed with the Streeter-Phelps equation and constrained to match Chinese water quality targets. The baseline water scarcity and operational costs are estimated to 15.6 billion CNY/year. Compliance to water quality grade III causes a relatively low increase to 16.4 billion CNY/year. Dilution plays an important role and increases the share of surface water allocations to users situated furthest downstream in the system. The modeling framework generates decision rules that result in the economically efficient strategy for complying with both water quantity and water quality constraints.

  2. Review and Evaluation of Reservoir Management Strategies for Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-28

    reports, published accounts of potential management options, effectiveness of management, and potential impacts of management actions on lake/reservoir...management options, effectiveness of management, potential impacts of management actions on lake/reservoir ecosystem processes and biota, and recommendations...and potential impacts of management actions on lake/reservoir ecosystem processes and biota, and recommendations for future research. This re- port

  3. Conservation implications of weed management of lake reservoirs ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Management of weeds around lake reservoirs is often implemented to reduce any possibility of siltation. However, machineries used in weed management have resulted in habitat degradation and geometrical multiplication of weeds by chopping rhizomes and scattering seeds. In general, the removal offers some feedbacks ...

  4. Flood risk management for large reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poupart, M.

    2006-01-01

    Floods are a major risk for dams: uncontrolled reservoir water level may cause dam overtopping, and then its failure, particularly for fill dams. Poor control of spillway discharges must be taken into consideration too, as it can increase the flood consequences downstream. In both cases, consequences on the public or on properties may be significant. Spillway design to withstand extreme floods is one response to these risks, but must be complemented by strict operating rules: hydrological forecasting, surveillance and periodic equipment controls, operating guides and the training of operators are mandatory too, in order to guarantee safe operations. (author)

  5. A Study of the Optimal Planning Model for Reservoir Sustainable Management- A Case Study of Shihmen Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.

  6. Value of information in closed-loop reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barros, E.G.D.; Jansen, J.D.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to perform value of information (VOI) analysis within a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) framework. The workflow combines tools such as robust optimization and history matching in an environment of uncertainty characterization. The approach is illustrated

  7. Value of information in closed-loop reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barros, E.G.D.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology to perform value of information (VOI) analysis within a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) framework. The workflow combines tools such as robust optimization and history matching in an environment of uncertainty characterization. The approach is illustrated

  8. Automatic high frequency monitoring for improved lake and reservoir management

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Marcé, R.; George, G.; Buscarinu, P.; Deidda, M.; Dunalska, J.; de Eyto, E.; Flaim, G.; Grossart, H. P.; Istvánovics, V.; Lenhardt, M.; Moreno-Ostos, E.; Obrador, B.; Ostrovsky, I.; Pierson, D. C.; Potužák, Jan; Poikane, S.; Rinke, K.; Rodríguez-Mozaz, S.; Staehr, P. A.; Šumberová, Kateřina; Waajen, G.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.; Weathers, K. C.; Zion, M.; Ibelings, B. W.; Jennings, E.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 20 (2016), s. 10780-10794 ISSN 0013-936X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD14045 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : monitoring of water resources * water reservoir management * sensors Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.198, year: 2016

  9. Dredged Material Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement. McNary Reservoir and Lower Snake River Reservoirs. Appendix C: Economic Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2002-01-01

    ...; for managment of dredged material from these reservoirs; and for maintenance of flow conveyance capacity at the most upstream extent of the Lower Granite reservoir for the remaining economic life of the dam and reservoir project (to year 2074...

  10. Decision models in engineering and management

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

  11. A stochastic conflict resolution model for water quality management in reservoir river systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerachian, Reza; Karamouz, Mohammad

    2007-04-01

    In this paper, optimal operating rules for water quality management in reservoir-river systems are developed using a methodology combining a water quality simulation model and a stochastic GA-based conflict resolution technique. As different decision-makers and stakeholders are involved in the water quality management in reservoir-river systems, a new stochastic form of the Nash bargaining theory is used to resolve the existing conflict of interests related to water supply to different demands, allocated water quality and waste load allocation in downstream river. The expected value of the Nash product is considered as the objective function of the model which can incorporate the inherent uncertainty of reservoir inflow. A water quality simulation model is also developed to simulate the thermal stratification cycle in the reservoir, the quality of releases from different outlets as well as the temporal and spatial variation of the pollutants in the downstream river. In this study, a Varying Chromosome Length Genetic Algorithm (VLGA), which has computational advantages comparing to other alternative models, is used. VLGA provides a good initial solution for Simple Genetic Algorithms and comparing to Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) reduces the number of state transitions checked in each stage. The proposed model, which is called Stochastic Varying Chromosome Length Genetic Algorithm with water Quality constraints (SVLGAQ), is applied to the Ghomrud Reservoir-River system in the central part of Iran. The results show, the proposed model for reservoir operation and waste load allocation can reduce the salinity of the allocated water demands as well as the salinity build-up in the reservoir.

  12. Use of Operational Climate Forecasts in Reservoir Management and Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumugam, S.; Lall, U.

    2005-12-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate information are essential for short-term planning and for setting up contingency measures during extreme years. Similarly, monthly updates of streamflow forecasts are useful in quantifying surplus and shortfall in addressing the change in streamflow potential during the season. In this study, an operational streamflow forecasts for managing the Angat Reservoir System, Philippines, is developed using the precipitation forecasts from Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM) that are forced by persisted Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions. The methodology employs principal components regression (PCR) to downscale the AGCM predicted precipitation fields to monthly streamflow forecasts. By performing retrospective analyses that combines streamflow forecasts with a dynamic water allocation model, we show that use of updated climate forecasts in reservoir operation results in increased reservoir system yields in comparison to using the seasonal streamflow forecasts alone. Revising the reservoir operation strategy based on updated streamflow forecasts is particularly critical in hydropower systems, since the increased yields from reduced spillage could be effectively utilized for power generation during above-normal inflow years. Further, analyzing the system performance under different scenarios of storage and demand, we show that the utility of climate information based reservoir inflow forecasts is more pronounced for systems with low storage to demand ratio.

  13. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Annual report, June 13, 1994--June 12, 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pande, P.K.

    1996-11-01

    This project has used a multi-disciplinary approach employing geology, geophysics, and engineering to conduct advanced reservoir characterization and management activities to design and implement an optimized infill drilling program at the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit in Gaines County, Texas. The activities during the first Budget Period have consisted of developing an integrated reservoir description from geological, engineering, and geostatistical studies, and using this description for reservoir flow simulation. Specific reservoir management activities are being identified and tested. The geologically targeted infill drilling program will be implemented using the results of this work. A significant contribution of this project is to demonstrate the use of cost-effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability shallow-shelf carbonate (SSC) reservoirs. The techniques that are outlined for the formulation of an integrated reservoir description apply to all oil and gas reservoirs, but are specifically tailored for use in the heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs of West Texas.

  14. The management of the Diama reservoir (Senegal River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duvail, S.; Hamerlynck, O.

    2003-04-01

    The Senegal River is regulated by 2 dams built in the 1980's by the "Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du fleuve Sénégal" (OMVS), a river basin management organisation grouping Mali, Senegal and Mauritania. The initial objectives of OMVS, which were to regulate the Senegal flows in order to develop irrigated agriculture, produce hydropower and facilitate river navigation has been only partially met. The maintenance of the annual flood by the upstream dam (Manantali), initially to be phased out when irrigated agriculture would have replaced the traditional recession agriculture, is now scheduled to continue indefinitely on the basis of socio-economic and environmental concerns. This change of mindset has however not affected the management of the downstream dam (Diama). Initially conceived as a salt-wedge dam, its function evolved to a reservoir dam with a high and constant water level. During the dry season, the water level is maintained high and constant in order to reduce the pumping costs for the irrigated agriculture in the delta. During the flood season (July-October) the dam is primarily managed for risk avoidance: limit flooding downstream of the dam (especially the city of St. Louis) and secure the infrastructure of the dam itself. The permanent freshwater reservoir lake has adverse effects on ecosystems, on human and animal health and a high social cost for the traditional stakeholders of the deltaic floodplain (fishermen, livestock keepers and gatherers). Upstream of the reservoir there is an excess of stagnant freshwater and managers are confronted with the development of invasive species while substantial downstream flooding is essential for the estuarine ecosystems and local livelihoods. The presentation will review the different approaches to the management of the Diama reservoir and proposes different management scenarios and compares their economical, environmental, and social costs and benefits.

  15. Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drilling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1998-01-01

    Infill drilling if wells on a uniform spacing without regard to reservoir performance and characterization foes not optimize reservoir development because it fails to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. New and emerging technologies, such as geostatistical modeling, rigorous decline curve analysis, reservoir rock typing, and special core analysis can be used to develop a 3-D simulation model for prediction of infill locations.

  16. Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drilling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P. K. Pande

    1998-10-29

    Initial drilling of wells on a uniform spacing, without regard to reservoir performance and characterization, must become a process of the past. Such efforts do not optimize reservoir development as they fail to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. These reservoirs are typically characterized by: o Large, discontinuous pay intervals o Vertical and lateral changes in reservoir properties o Low reservoir energy o High residual oil saturation o Low recovery efficiency

  17. Evaluation of sediment management strategies on reservoir storage depletion rate: a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, M.; Sterk, G.

    2010-01-01

    Sedimentation aspects have a major role during the design of new reservoir projects because life of the reservoir mainly depends upon sediment handling during reservoir operation. Therefore, proper sediment management strategies should be adopted to enhance the life span of reservoirs. Basha

  18. Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations: Bringing Science and Decision-Makers Together to Explore Use of Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Support Future Reservoir Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph, F. M.; Jasperse, J.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a proposed strategy that is exploring inorporation of improved hydrometeorological forecasts of land-falling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast into reservoir operations. The first testbed for this strategy is Lake Mendocino, which is located in the East Fork of the 1485 mi2 Russian River Watershed in northern California. This project is guided by the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC). The SC is an ad hoc committee that consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current or improved technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve water supply reliability, enhance flood mitigation and support recovery of listed salmon for the Russian River of northern California. In 2015, the SC created a detailed work plan, which included a Preliminary Viability Assessment, which has now been completed. The SC developed a vision that operational efficiency would be improved by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water. FIRO would use available reservoir storage in an efficient manner by (1) better forecasting inflow (or lack of inflow) with enhanced technology, and (2) adapting operation in real time to meet the need for storage, rather than making storage available just in case it is needed. The envisioned FIRO strategy has the potential to simultaneously improve water supply reliability, flood protection, and ecosystem outcomes through a more efficient use of existing infrastructure while requiring minimal capital improvements in the physical structure of the dam. This presentation will provide an overview of the creation of the FIRO SC and how it operates, and describes the lessons learned through this partnership. Results in the FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment will be summarized and next steps described.

  19. NN-Based Implicit Stochastic Optimization of Multi-Reservoir Systems Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Sangiorgio

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Multi-reservoir systems management is complex because of the uncertainty on future events and the variety of purposes, usually conflicting, of the involved actors. An efficient management of these systems can help improving resource allocation, preventing political crisis and reducing the conflicts between the stakeholders. Bellman stochastic dynamic programming (SDP is the most famous among the many proposed approaches to solve this optimal control problem. Unfortunately, SDP is affected by the curse of dimensionality: computational effort increases exponentially with the complexity of the considered system (i.e., number of reservoirs, and the problem rapidly becomes intractable. This paper proposes an implicit stochastic optimization approach for the solution of the reservoir management problem. The core idea is using extremely flexible functions, such as artificial neural networks (NN, for designing release rules which approximate the optimal policies obtained by an open-loop approach. These trained NNs can then be used to take decisions in real time. The approach thus requires a sufficiently long series of historical or synthetic inflows, and the definition of a compromise solution to be approximated. This work analyzes with particular emphasis the importance of the information which represents the input of the control laws, investigating the effects of different degrees of completeness. The methodology is applied to the Nile River basin considering the main management objectives (minimization of the irrigation water deficit and maximization of the hydropower production, but can be easily adopted also in other cases.

  20. Decision exploration lab: a visual analytics solution for decision management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Arthur G; Crisafulli, Paolo

    2013-12-01

    We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business goals. In our work, we consider decision models (executable models of the business domain) as ontologies that describe the business domain, and production rules that describe the business logic of decisions to be made over this ontology. Executing a decision model produces an accumulation of decisions made over time for individual cases. We are interested, first, to get insight in the decision logic and the accumulated facts by themselves. Secondly and more importantly, we want to see how the accumulated facts reveal potential divergences between the reality as captured by the decision model, and the reality as captured by the executed decisions. We illustrate the motivation, added value for visual analytics, and our proposed solution and tooling through a business case from the car insurance industry.

  1. 75 FR 40034 - Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-13

    ... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek...-managed public land on Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort Patrick Henry, South Holston, Watauga, and.... Watauga and Wilbur reservoirs are along the Watauga River. Beaver Creek and Clear Creek reservoirs are on...

  2. Decision support for utility environmental risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balson, W.E.; Wilson, D.S.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reviews a number of decision support methods developed and applied by Decision Focus Incorporated to help utility personnel manage current environmental problems. This work has been performed for the Environmental Risk Analysis Program of EPRI's Environment Division, and also for a number of electric utilities across the country. These are two distinct types of decision support software tools that have been created: economic risk management and environmental risk analysis. These types differ primarily in the identification of who will make a decision. Economic risk management tools are directed primarily at decisions made by electric utilities. Environmental risk analysis tools are directed primarily at decisions made by legislative or regulatory agencies, about which a utility may wish to comment

  3. Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    1992-01-01

    The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

  4. Solutions for decision support in university management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei STANCIU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes an overview of decision support systems in order to define the role of a system to assist decision in university management. The authors present new technologies and the basic concepts of multidimensional data analysis using models of business processes within the universities. Based on information provided by scientific literature and on the authors’ experience, the study aims to define selection criteria in choosing a development environment for designing a support system dedicated to university management. The contributions consist in designing a data warehouse model and models of OLAP analysis to assist decision in university management.

  5. Hydroeconomic optimization of reservoir management under downstream water quality constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo

    2015-01-01

    A hydroeconomic optimization approach is used to guide water management in a Chinese river basin with the objectives of meeting water quantity and water quality constraints, in line with the China 2011 No. 1 Policy Document and 2015 Ten-point Water Plan. The proposed modeling framework couples...... water quantity and water quality management and minimizes the total costs over a planning period assuming stochastic future runoff. The outcome includes cost-optimal reservoir releases, groundwater pumping, water allocation, wastewater treatments and water curtailments. The optimization model uses...... a variant of stochastic dynamic programming known as the water value method. Nonlinearity arising from the water quality constraints is handled with an effective hybrid method combining genetic algorithms and linear programming. Untreated pollutant loads are represented by biochemical oxygen demand (BOD...

  6. Decision-support systems for forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Michael Rauscher

    2005-01-01

    The basic concept of sustainable development, formulated in the Brundtland report and applied to forest management by the Montreal Process, has focused attention on the need for formal decision processes (Brundtland. 1987). The application of decision theory is essential because meeting the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to...

  7. Help in making fuel management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter J. Roussopoulos; Von J. Johnson

    1975-01-01

    Describes how to compare predictions of fuel hazard for Northeastern logging slash with a number of fuel hazard "standards." This system provides objective criteria for making fuel management decisions.

  8. Decision support tool for accidental pollution management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciolofan, Sorin N; Draghia, Aurelian; Drobot, Radu; Mocanu, Mariana; Cristea, Valentin

    2018-03-01

    Accidental river pollution can cause damage to the environment, put at risk the health of people that use the water for domestic purposes, and, not lastly, compromise dependent economic activities (e.g., agriculture). The reduction of the concentration of pollutant on any river following an accidental pollution can be achieved using dilution, by opening for certain duration the bottom gates of the reservoirs placed on the river's tributaries and releasing a significant volume of clean water in the main river. The hydraulic simulation and the pollutant transport are executed, firstly considering there is no dilution and secondly for the dilution scenario (bottom gates of the reservoirs open). A database was created, containing the results of simulations of pollutant transport for various values of the pollution characteristics in both diluted/undiluted scenarios. The database served for the implementation of a web decision support tool that presents an intuitive and easy to use GUI that allows the user to input details of the accidental pollution. Straightforward actions to be taken are presented to the end-user (e.g., "Open the bottom gates of the reservoir X at time T1 and close it at time T2") and synchronized charts show the effect of the dilution in respect to the concentration of pollutant at certain locations on the river. Using the described approach, a reduction of pollutant concentration in the river with up to 90% can be obtained.

  9. Assessing water reservoirs management and development in Northern Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Castelletti

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In many developing countries water is a key renewable resource to complement carbon-emitting energy production and support food security in the face of demand pressure from fast-growing industrial production and urbanization. To cope with undergoing changes, water resources development and management have to be reconsidered by enlarging their scope across sectors and adopting effective tools to analyze current and projected infrastructure potential and operation strategies. In this paper we use multi-objective deterministic and stochastic optimization to assess the current reservoir operation and planned capacity expansion in the Red River Basin (Northern Vietnam, and to evaluate the potential improvement by the adoption of a more sophisticated information system. To reach this goal we analyze the historical operation of the major controllable infrastructure in the basin, the HoaBinh reservoir on the Da River, explore re-operation options corresponding to different tradeoffs among the three main objectives (hydropower production, flood control and water supply, using multi-objective optimization techniques, namely Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. Finally, we assess the structural system potential and the need for capacity expansion by application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming. Results show that the current operation can only be relatively improved by advanced optimization techniques, while investment should be put into enlarging the system storage capacity and exploiting additional information to inform the operation.

  10. Reservoir management under consideration of stratification and hydraulic phenomena

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nandalal, K.D.W.

    1995-01-01


    Reservoirs are the most important components in a water resources system. They are used to store water to extend its temporal availability. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water change when impounded in reservoirs. This implies the possibility of using reservoirs

  11. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  12. Financial Risk Reduction and Management of Water Reservoirs Using Forecasts: A Case for Pernambuco, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, I.; Josset, L.; e Silva, E. C.; Possas, J. M. C.; Asfora, M. C.; Lall, U.

    2017-12-01

    The financial health and sustainability, ensuring adequate supply, and adapting to climate are fundamental challenges faced by water managers. These challenges are worsened in semi-arid regions with socio-economic pressures, seasonal supply of water, and projected increase in intensity and frequency of droughts. Over time, probabilistic rainfall forecasts are improving and for water managers, it could be key in addressing the above challenges. Using forecasts can also help make informed decisions about future infrastructure. The study proposes a model to minimize cost of water supply (including cost of deficit) given ensemble forecasts. The model can be applied to seasonal to annual ensemble forecasts, to determine the least cost solution. The objective of the model is to evaluate the resiliency and cost associated to supplying water. A case study is conducted in one of the largest reservoirs (Jucazinho) in Pernambuco state, Brazil, and four other reservoirs, which provide water to nineteen municipalities in the Jucazinho system. The state has been in drought since 2011, and the Jucazinho reservoir, has been empty since January 2017. The importance of climate adaptation along with risk management and financial sustainability are important to the state as it is extremely vulnerable to droughts, and has seasonal streamflow. The objectives of the case study are first, to check if streamflow forecasts help reduce future supply costs by comparing k-nearest neighbor ensemble forecasts with a fixed release policy. Second, to determine the value of future infrastructure, a new source of supply from Rio São Francisco, considered to mitigate drought conditions. The study concludes that using forecasts improve the supply and financial sustainability of water, by reducing cost of failure. It also concludes that additional infrastructure can help reduce the risks of failure significantly, but does not guarantee supply during prolonged droughts like the one experienced

  13. Supporting management decisions with ex ante accounting information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wouters, Marc; Verdaasdonk, Peter

    2002-01-01

    This paper is about the relationship between management decisions and accounting information. Management decisions have consequences in different functional areas, departments, and different companies along the value chain. Accounting information regarding decisions aims to translate as many as

  14. CO2 plume management in saline reservoir sequestration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frailey, S.M.; Finley, R.J.

    2011-01-01

    A significant difference between injecting CO2 into saline aquifers for sequestration and injecting fluids into oil reservoirs or natural gas into aquifer storage reservoirs is the availability and use of other production and injection wells surrounding the primary injection well(s). Of major concern for CO2 sequestration using a single well is the distribution of pressure and CO2 saturation within the injection zone. Pressure is of concern with regards to caprock integrity and potential migration of brine or CO2 outside of the injection zone, while CO2 saturation is of interest for storage rights and displacement efficiency. For oil reservoirs, the presence of additional wells is intended to maximize oil recovery by injecting CO2 into the same hydraulic flow units from which the producing wells are withdrawing fluids. Completing injectors and producers in the same flow unit increases CO2 throughput, maximizes oil displacement efficiency, and controls pressure buildup. Additional injectors may surround the CO2 injection well and oil production wells in order to provide external pressure to these wells to prevent the injected CO2 from migrating from the pattern between two of the producing wells. Natural gas storage practices are similar in that to reduce the amount of "cushion" gas and increase the amount of cycled or working gas, edge wells may be used for withdrawal of gas and center wells used for gas injection. This reduces loss of gas to the formation via residual trapping far from the injection well. Moreover, this maximizes the natural gas storage efficiency between the injection and production wells and reduces the areal extent of the natural gas plume. Proposed U.S. EPA regulations include monitoring pressure and suggest the "plume" may be defined by pressure in addition to the CO2 saturated area. For pressure monitoring, it seems that this can only be accomplished by injection zone monitoring wells. For pressure, these wells would not need to be very

  15. Reservoir management strategy for East Randolph Field, Randolph Township, Portage County, Ohio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safley, L.E.; Salamy, S.P.; Young, M.A.; Fowler, M.L.; Wing, J.L.; Thomas, J.B.; Mills, J.; Wood, D.

    1998-07-01

    The primary objective of the Reservoir Management Field Demonstration Program is to demonstrate that multidisciplinary reservoir management teams using appropriate software and methodologies with efforts scaled to the size of the resource are a cost-effective method for: Increasing current profitability of field operations; Forestalling abandonment of the reservoir; and Improving long-term economic recovery for the company. The primary objective of the Reservoir Management Demonstration Project with Belden and Blake Corporation is to develop a comprehensive reservoir management strategy to improve the operational economics and optimize oil production from East Randolph field, Randolph Township, Portage County, Ohio. This strategy identifies the viable improved recovery process options and defines related operational and facility requirements. In addition, strategies are addressed for field operation problems, such as paraffin buildup, hydraulic fracture stimulation, pumping system optimization, and production treatment requirements, with the goal of reducing operating costs and improving oil recovery.

  16. BEKWAAM, a model fit for reservoir design and management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benoist, A.P.; Brinkman, A.G.; Diepenbeek, van P.M.J.A.; Waals, J.M.J.

    1998-01-01

    In the Province of Limburg in the Netherlands a new reservoir will be used for the drinking water production of 20 million m3 per annum from the year 2002. With the use of this reservoir the WML is shifting towards the use of surface water (River Meuse) as primary source instead of ground water.

  17. Decision problems in management of construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranko, E.

    2017-10-01

    In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

  18. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models....... This paper offers an ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision making processes in businesses. The ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ is based on empirical...... evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...

  19. Management of complex multi-reservoir water distribution systems using advanced control theoretic tools and techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Chmielowski, Wojciech Z

    2013-01-01

    This study discusses issues of optimal water management in a complex distribution system. The main elements of the water-management system under consideration are retention reservoirs, among which water transfers are possible, and a network of connections between these reservoirs and water treatment plants (WTPs). System operation optimisation involves determining the proper water transport routes and their flow volumes from the retention reservoirs to the WTPs, and the volumes of possible transfers among the reservoirs, taking into account transport-related delays for inflows, outflows and water transfers in the system. Total system operation costs defined by an assumed quality coefficient should be minimal. An analytical solution of the optimisation task so formulated has been obtained as a result of using Pontriagin’s maximum principle with reference to the quality coefficient assumed. Stable start and end conditions in reservoir state trajectories have been assumed. The researchers have taken into accou...

  20. Tailoring dam structures to water quality predictions in new reservoir projects: assisting decision-making using numerical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcé, Rafael; Moreno-Ostos, Enrique; García-Barcina, José Ma; Armengol, Joan

    2010-06-01

    Selection of reservoir location, the floodable basin forest handling, and the design of dam structures devoted to water supply (e.g. water outlets) constitute relevant features which strongly determine water quality and frequently demand management strategies to be adopted. Although these crucial aspects should be carefully examined during dam design before construction, currently the development of ad hoc limnological studies tailoring dam location and dam structures to the water quality characteristics expected in the future reservoir is not typical practice. In this study, we use numerical simulation to assist on the design of a new dam project in Spain with the aim of maximizing the quality of the water supplied by the future reservoir. First, we ran a well-known coupled hydrodynamic and biogeochemical dynamic numerical model (DYRESM-CAEDYM) to simulate the potential development of anoxic layers in the future reservoir. Then, we generated several scenarios corresponding to different potential hydraulic conditions and outlet configurations. Second, we built a simplified numerical model to simulate the development of the hypolimnetic oxygen content during the maturation stage after the first reservoir filling, taking into consideration the degradation of the terrestrial organic matter flooded and the adoption of different forest handling scenarios. Results are discussed in terms of reservoir design and water quality management. The combination of hypolimnetic withdrawal from two deep outlets and the removal of all the valuable terrestrial vegetal biomass before flooding resulted in the best water quality scenario. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Contribution of systematic reviews to management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Carly N; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

    2013-10-01

    Systematic reviews comprehensively summarize evidence about the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We investigated the contribution to management decisions made by this growing body of literature. We identified 43 systematic reviews of conservation evidence, 23 of which drew some concrete conclusions relevant to management. Most reviews addressed conservation interventions relevant to policy decisions; only 35% considered practical on-the-ground management interventions. The majority of reviews covered only a small fraction of the geographic and taxonomic breadth they aimed to address (median = 13% of relevant countries and 16% of relevant taxa). The likelihood that reviews contained at least some implications for management tended to increase as geographic coverage increased and to decline as taxonomic breadth increased. These results suggest the breadth of a systematic review requires careful consideration. Reviews identified a mean of 312 relevant primary studies but excluded 88% of these because of deficiencies in design or a failure to meet other inclusion criteria. Reviews summarized on average 284 data sets and 112 years of research activity, yet the likelihood that their results had at least some implications for management did not increase as the amount of primary research summarized increased. In some cases, conclusions were elusive despite the inclusion of hundreds of data sets and years of cumulative research activity. Systematic reviews are an important part of the conservation decision making tool kit, although we believe the benefits of systematic reviews could be significantly enhanced by increasing the number of reviews focused on questions of direct relevance to on-the-ground managers; defining a more focused geographic and taxonomic breadth that better reflects available data; including a broader range of evidence types; and appraising the cost-effectiveness of interventions. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley

  2. An environmental data base for all Hydro-Quebec reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demers, C.

    1988-01-01

    Hydro-Quebec has created two management positions specifically for reservoirs, namely Reservoir Ecology Advisor and Reservoir Management Advisor. To assist management decisions, a means was required of bringing together all existing environmental information for each reservoir operated by Hydro-Quebec, including storage reservoirs, auxiliary reservoirs and forebays. A relational database using Reflex software was developed on a network of Macintosh computers. The database contains five blocks of information: general information, and physical, physiochemical, biologic and socioeconomic characteristics for each reservoir. Data will be collected on over 100 sites, and the tool will form the basis for developing a medium-range study program on reservoir ecology. The program must take into account the physical, biological and socioeconomic aspects of the environment, as well as the concerns of management personnel operating the reservoirs, the local population, reservoir users, and various government departments. 2 figs

  3. Evaluating the Implications of Climate Phenomenon Indices in Supporting Reservoir Operation Using the Artificial Neural Network and Decision-Tree Methods: A Case Study on Trinity Lake in Northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T.; Akbari Asanjan, A.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

    2016-12-01

    Reservoirs are fundamental human-built infrastructures that collect, store, and deliver fresh surface water in a timely manner for all kinds of purposes, including residential and industrial water supply, flood control, hydropower, and irrigation, etc. Efficient reservoir operation requires that policy makers and operators understand how reservoir inflows, available storage, and discharges are changing under different climatic conditions. Over the last decade, the uses of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI & DM) techniques in assisting reservoir management and seasonal forecasts have been increasing. Therefore, in this study, two distinct AI & DM methods, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF), are employed and compared with respect to their capabilities of predicting monthly reservoir inflow, managing storage, and scheduling reservoir releases. A case study on Trinity Lake in northern California is conducted using long-term (over 50 years) reservoir operation records and 17 known climate phenomenon indices, i.e. PDO and ENSO, etc., as predictors. Results show that (1) both ANN and RF are capable of providing reasonable monthly reservoir storage, inflow, and outflow prediction with satisfactory statistics, and (2) climate phenomenon indices are useful in assisting monthly or seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow and outflow. It is also found that reservoir storage has a consistent high autocorrelation effect, while inflow and outflow are more likely to be influenced by climate conditions. Using a Gini diversity index, RF method identifies that the reservoir discharges are associated with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and reservoir inflows are influenced by multiple climate phenomenon indices during different seasons. Furthermore, results also show that, during the winter season, reservoir discharges are controlled by the storage level for flood-control purposes, while, during the summer season, the flood-control operation is not as

  4. Decision Support Systems in Forest Management: An Integrated ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Decision making process - especially in natural resources management, encounters myriad of challenges to objective decisions, significant decision depends on amount of information and capability of decision makers to handle massive data. In forest management, these challenges such as lack of enough data and cost ...

  5. Nonlinear Model Predictive Control for Oil Reservoirs Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capolei, Andrea

    . The controller consists of -A model based optimizer for maximizing some predicted financial measure of the reservoir (e.g. the net present value). -A parameter and state estimator. -Use of the moving horizon principle for data assimilation and implementation of the computed control input. The optimizer uses...... Optimization has been suggested to compensate for inherent geological uncertainties in an oil field. In robust optimization of an oil reservoir, the water injection and production borehole pressures are computed such that the predicted net present value of an ensemble of permeability field realizations...... equivalent strategy is not justified for the particular case studied in this paper. The third contribution of this thesis is a mean-variance method for risk mitigation in production optimization of oil reservoirs. We introduce a return-risk bicriterion objective function for the profit-risk tradeoff...

  6. Structured decision making as a framework for large-scale wildlife harvest management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Kelly F.; Fuller, Angela K.; Hurst, Jeremy E.; Swift, Bryan L.; Kirsch, Arthur; Farquhar, James F.; Decker, Daniel J.; Siemer, William F.

    2016-01-01

    Fish and wildlife harvest management at large spatial scales often involves making complex decisions with multiple objectives and difficult tradeoffs, population demographics that vary spatially, competing stakeholder values, and uncertainties that might affect management decisions. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a formal decision analytic framework for evaluating difficult decisions by breaking decisions into component parts and separating the values of stakeholders from the scientific evaluation of management actions and uncertainty. The result is a rigorous, transparent, and values-driven process. This decision-aiding process provides the decision maker with a more complete understanding of the problem and the effects of potential management actions on stakeholder values, as well as how key uncertainties can affect the decision. We use a case study to illustrate how SDM can be used as a decision-aiding tool for management decision making at large scales. We evaluated alternative white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) buck-harvest regulations in New York designed to reduce harvest of yearling bucks, taking into consideration the values of the state wildlife agency responsible for managing deer, as well as deer hunters. We incorporated tradeoffs about social, ecological, and economic management concerns throughout the state. Based on the outcomes of predictive models, expert elicitation, and hunter surveys, the SDM process identified management alternatives that optimized competing objectives. The SDM process provided biologists and managers insight about aspects of the buck-harvest decision that helped them adopt a management strategy most compatible with diverse hunter values and management concerns.

  7. Use of modified nanoparticles in oil and gas reservoir management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Turkenburg, D.H.; Chin, P.T.K.; Fischer, H.R.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a water dispersed nano sensor cocktail based on InP/ZnS quantum dots (QDs) and atomic silver clusters with a bright and visible luminescence combined with optimized sensor functionalities for the water flooding process. The QDs and Ag nano sensors were tested in simulated reservoir

  8. Design and modeling of reservoir operation strategies for sediment management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sloff, C.J.; Omer, A.Y.A.; Heynert, K.V.; Mohamed, Y.A.

    2015-01-01

    Appropriate operation strategies that allow for sediment flushing and sluicing (sediment routing) can reduce rapid storage losses of (hydropower and water-supply) reservoirs. In this study we have shown, using field observations and computational models, that the efficiency of these operations

  9. The Role of Rainfall Variability in Reservoir Storage Management at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Statistical analysis of hydro-meteorological data (rainfall, inflow, reservoir storage and turbine release) at Shiroro dam were carried out with the aim of detecting spatio-temporal trends. Correlation and regression analysis were used to develop models for the variables. The correlation of between 0.120 and 0.774 revealed ...

  10. A risk-based decision-making game relevant to water management. Try it yourself!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappenberger, Florian; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Wood, Andy; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2013-04-01

    Monthly or seasonal streamflow forecasts are essential to improve water planning (eg., water allocation) and anticipate severe events like droughts. Additionally, multipurpose water reservoirs usually integrate hydrologic inflow forecasts to their operational management rules to optimize water allocation or its economic value, to mitigate droughts, for flood and ecological control, among others. Given the need to take into account uncertainties at long lead times to allow for optimal risk-based decisions, the use of probabilistic forecasts in this context is inevitable. In this presentation, we will engage a risk-based decision-making game, where each participant will act as a water manager. A sequence of probabilistic inflow forecasts will be presented to be used to make a reservoir release decision at a monthly time-step, subject to a few constraints -- e.g., an end of year target pool elevation, a maximum release and a minimum downstream flow. After each decision, the actual inflow will be presented and the consequences of the decisions made will be discussed together with the participants of the session. This experience will allow participants to experience firsthand the challenges of probabilistic, quantitative decision-making.

  11. Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

    2012-01-01

    This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

  12. Public involvement in radioactive waste management decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-04-01

    Current repository siting efforts focus on Yucca Mountain, Nevada, where DOE`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is conducting exploratory studies to determine if the site is suitable. The state of Nevada has resisted these efforts: it has denied permits, brought suit against DOE, and publicly denounced the federal government`s decision to study Yucca Mountain. The state`s opposition reflects public opinion in Nevada, and has considerably slowed DOE`s progress in studying the site. The Yucca Mountain controversy demonstrates the importance of understanding public attitudes and their potential influence as DOE develops a program to manage radioactive waste. The strength and nature of Nevada`s opposition -- its ability to thwart if not outright derail DOE`s activities -- indicate a need to develop alternative methods for making decisions that affect the public. This report analyzes public participation as a key component of this openness, one that provides a means of garnering acceptance of, or reducing public opposition to, DOE`s radioactive waste management activities, including facility siting and transportation. The first section, Public Perceptions: Attitudes, Trust, and Theory, reviews the risk-perception literature to identify how the public perceives the risks associated with radioactivity. DOE and the Public discusses DOE`s low level of credibility among the general public as the product, in part, of the department`s past actions. This section looks at the three components of the radioactive waste management program -- disposal, storage, and transportation -- and the different ways DOE has approached the problem of public confidence in each case. Midwestern Radioactive Waste Management Histories focuses on selected Midwestern facility-siting and transportation activities involving radioactive materials.

  13. Public involvement in radioactive waste management decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-04-01

    Current repository siting efforts focus on Yucca Mountain, Nevada, where DOE's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is conducting exploratory studies to determine if the site is suitable. The state of Nevada has resisted these efforts: it has denied permits, brought suit against DOE, and publicly denounced the federal government's decision to study Yucca Mountain. The state's opposition reflects public opinion in Nevada, and has considerably slowed DOE's progress in studying the site. The Yucca Mountain controversy demonstrates the importance of understanding public attitudes and their potential influence as DOE develops a program to manage radioactive waste. The strength and nature of Nevada's opposition -- its ability to thwart if not outright derail DOE's activities -- indicate a need to develop alternative methods for making decisions that affect the public. This report analyzes public participation as a key component of this openness, one that provides a means of garnering acceptance of, or reducing public opposition to, DOE's radioactive waste management activities, including facility siting and transportation. The first section, Public Perceptions: Attitudes, Trust, and Theory, reviews the risk-perception literature to identify how the public perceives the risks associated with radioactivity. DOE and the Public discusses DOE's low level of credibility among the general public as the product, in part, of the department's past actions. This section looks at the three components of the radioactive waste management program -- disposal, storage, and transportation -- and the different ways DOE has approached the problem of public confidence in each case. Midwestern Radioactive Waste Management Histories focuses on selected Midwestern facility-siting and transportation activities involving radioactive materials

  14. G-REALM: A lake/reservoir monitoring tool for drought monitoring and water resources management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkett, C. M.; Ricko, M.; Beckley, B. D.; Yang, X.; Tetrault, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    G-REALM is a NASA/USDA funded operational program offering water-level products for lakes and reservoirs and these are currently derived from the NASA/CNES Topex/Jason series of satellite radar altimeters. The main stakeholder is the USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) though many other end-users utilize the products for a variety of interdisciplinary science and operational programs. The FAS utilize the products within their CropExplorer Decision Support System (DSS) to help assess irrigation potential, and to monitor both short-term (agricultural) and longer-term (hydrological) drought conditions. There is increasing demand for a more global monitoring service that in particular, captures the variations in the smallest (1 to 100km2) reservoirs and water holdings in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, water resources are critical to both agriculture and regional security. A recent G-REALM 10-day resolution product upgrade and expansion has allowed for more accurate lake level products to be released and for a greater number of water bodies to be monitored. The next program phase focuses on the exploration of the enhanced radar altimeter data sets from the Cryosat-2 and Sentinel-3 missions with their improved spatial resolution, and the expansion of the system to the monitoring of 1,000 water bodies across the globe. In addition, a new element, the monitoring of surface water levels in wetland zones, is also being introduced. This aims to satisfy research and stakeholder requirements with respect to programs examining the links between inland fisheries catch potential and declining water levels, and to those monitoring the delicate balance between water resources, agriculture, and fisheries management in arid basins.

  15. Improving IT Portfolio Management Decision Confidence Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Hypervariate Display Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landmesser, John Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…

  16. Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

    2016-01-01

    Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and

  17. Stakeholder engagement in dredged material management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Zachary A; Bates, Matthew E; Wood, Matthew D; Linkov, Igor

    2014-10-15

    Dredging and disposal issues often become controversial with local stakeholders because of their competing interests. These interests tend to manifest themselves in stakeholders holding onto entrenched positions, and deadlock can result without a methodology to move the stakeholder group past the status quo. However, these situations can be represented as multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria decision problems. In this paper, we describe a case study in which multi-criteria decision analysis was implemented in a multi-stakeholder setting in order to generate recommendations on dredged material placement for Long Island Sound's Dredged Material Management Plan. A working-group of representatives from various stakeholder organizations was formed and consulted to help prioritize sediment placement sites for each dredging center in the region by collaboratively building a multi-criteria decision model. The resulting model framed the problem as several alternatives, criteria, sub-criteria, and metrics relevant to stakeholder interests in the Long Island Sound region. An elicitation of values, represented as criteria weights, was then conducted. Results show that in general, stakeholders tended to agree that all criteria were at least somewhat important, and on average there was strong agreement on the order of preferences among the diverse groups of stakeholders. By developing the decision model iteratively with stakeholders as a group and soliciting their preferences, the process sought to increase stakeholder involvement at the front-end of the prioritization process and lead to increased knowledge and consensus regarding the importance of site-specific criteria. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Impact of overpressures on subsurface exploration and reservoir management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukla, P.

    2009-04-01

    The presence of overpressures in the subsurface poses major problems for safety and cost efficient well design, but less well known is their importance for exploration and reservoir development. Overpressures reduce the vertical effective stress (VES, the difference between the vertical stress and fluid pressure) experienced by the sediment. As sediment compaction is primarily an irreversible function of VES, a reduction in VES will halt compaction. Similarly, a reduction in its rate of increase will reduce the rate of porosity loss. Porosity and other key rock properties will therefore reflect changes in vertical effective stress. Any measurement that senses porosity, or seismic velocity (e.g. sonic, density or resistivity logs) will provide a means of estimating overpressures. The reduction of porosity with vertical effective stress is exponential in nature. Consequently, overpressures generated early in the burial history, such as those generated by disequilibrium compaction, will have a greater impact on rock properties than those generated or emplaced during late burial. Indeed, late overpressuring, so-called inflation, may have little or no impact on rock properties and therefore methods for the prediction of overpressures from properties such as seismic velocity will not provide reliable pressure estimates. In order for fluid pressures to rise in a basin, the pressures have to be contained by rocks with sufficiently low permeability. Overpressures are transient and gradually leak away when the generation mechanism ceases to operate. In some areas, such as in parts of the central North Sea and the Middle East, fluid pressures have built up until the failure envelope of the seal is reached, leading to a subsequent loss of the sealing capacity. The failure envelope is usually considered to be determined by the minimum horizontal stress. The failure pressure for the seal systematically increases with depth and this variation will control the maximum pressures

  19. Child-parent shared decision making about asthma management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garnett, Victoria; Smith, Joanna; Ormandy, Paula

    2016-05-09

    Aim To explore and describe child-parent shared decision making for the management of childhood asthma. Methods A qualitative, descriptive, interview-based study was undertaken. Eight children and nine parents participated. The framework approach underpinned data analysis. Findings A dynamic model of the way children and parents transfer, shift and share asthma management decisions was uncovered. Asthma management decisions between children and parents were non-linear, with responsibility transferring from parent to child under different conditions. Children made a range of decisions about their asthma, often sharing decisions with their parents. However, during acute illness episodes, children often relied on parents to make decisions about their asthma. Conclusion Neither the child nor parent has complete autonomy over asthma management decisions. Decision making is a dynamic, shifting and shared process, dependent on contextual factors and child and parent decision preferences.

  20. Integrating decision management with UML modeling concepts and tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    2009-01-01

    Numerous design decisions including architectural decisions are made while developing a software system, which influence the architecture of the system as well as subsequent decisions. Several tools already exist for managing design decisions, i.e. capturing, documenting, and maintaining them......, but also for guiding the user by proposing subsequent decisions. In model-based software development, many decisions directly affect the structural and behavioral models used to describe and develop a software system and its architecture. However, the decisions are typically not connected to these models....... In this paper, we propose an integration of a decision management and a UML-based modeling tool, based on use cases we distill from an example: the UML modeling tool shall show all decisions related to a model and allow extending or updating them; the decision management tool shall trigger the modeling tool...

  1. Towards an Improved Represenation of Reservoirs and Water Management in a Land Surface-Hydrology Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yassin, F.; Anis, M. R.; Razavi, S.; Wheater, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Water management through reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation have significantly changed river flow regimes and basin-wide energy and water balance cycles. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of land surface-hydrology models not only for streamflow prediction but also for the estimation of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Despite recent research to improve the representation of water management in land surface models, there remains a need to develop improved modeling approaches that work in complex and highly regulated basins such as the 406,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). A particular challenge for regional and global application is a lack of local information on reservoir operational management. To this end, we implemented a reservoir operation, water abstraction, and irrigation algorithm in the MESH land surface-hydrology model and tested it over the SaskRB. MESH is Environment Canada's Land Surface-hydrology modeling system that couples Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with hydrological routing model. The implemented reservoir algorithm uses an inflow-outflow relationship that accounts for the physical characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., storage-area-elevation relationships) and includes simplified operational characteristics based on local information (e.g., monthly target volume and release under limited, normal, and flood storage zone). The irrigation algorithm uses the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration to estimate irrigation water demand. This irrigation demand is supplied from the neighboring reservoirs/diversion in the river system. We calibrated the model enabled with the new reservoir and irrigation modules in a multi-objective optimization setting. Results showed that the reservoir and irrigation modules significantly improved the MESH model performance in generating streamflow and evapotranspiration across the SaskRB and that this our approach provides

  2. Reservoir compartmentalization and management strategies: Lessons learned in the Illinois basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grube, J.P.; Crockett, J.E.; Huff, B.G. [and others

    1997-08-01

    A research project jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy and the Illinois State Geological Survey focused on the Cypress and Aux Vases Formations (Mississippian), major clastic reservoirs in the Illinois Basin. Results from the research showed that understanding the nature and distribution of reservoir compartments, and using effective reservoir management strategies, can significantly improve recovery efficiencies from oil fields in this mature basin. Compartments can be most effectively drained where they are geologically well defined and reservoir management practices are coordinated through unified, compartment-wide, development programs. Our studies showed that the Cypress and Aux Vases reservoirs contain lateral and vertical permeability barriers forming compartments that range in size from isolated, interlaminated sandstone and shale beds to sandstone bodies tens of feet in thickness and more than a mile in length. Stacked or shingled, genetically similar sandstone bodies are commonly separated by thin impermeable intervals that can be difficult to distinguish on logs and can, therefore, cause correlation problems, even between wells drilled on spacing of less than ten acres. Lateral separation of sandstone bodies causes similar problems. Reservoir compartmentalization reduces primary and particularly secondary recovery by trapping pockets of by-passed or banked oil. Compartments can be detected by comparing recovery factors of genetically similar sandstone bodies within a field; using packers to separate commingled intervals and analyzing fluid recoveries and pressures; making detailed core-to-log calibrations that identify compartment boundaries; and analyzing pressure data from waterflood programs.

  3. Decision Support for Environmental Management of Industrial ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-hazardous solid materials from industrial processes, once regarded as waste and disposed in landfills, offer numerous environmental and economic advantages when put to beneficial uses (BUs). Proper management of these industrial non-hazardous secondary materials (INSM) requires estimates of their probable environmental impacts among disposal as well as BU options. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has recently approved new analytical methods (EPA Methods 1313–1316) to assess leachability of constituents of potential concern in these materials. These new methods are more realistic for many disposal and BU options than historical methods, such as the toxicity characteristic leaching protocol. Experimental data from these new methods are used to parameterize a chemical fate and transport (F&T) model to simulate long-term environmental releases from flue gas desulfurization gypsum (FGDG) when disposed of in an industrial landfill or beneficially used as an agricultural soil amendment. The F&T model is also coupled with optimization algorithms, the Beneficial Use Decision Support System (BUDSS), under development by EPA to enhance INSM management. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the methodologies and encourage similar applications to improve environmental management and BUs of INSM through F&T simulation coupled with optimization, using realistic model parameterization.

  4. Managing geological uncertainty in CO2-EOR reservoir assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welkenhuysen, Kris; Piessens, Kris

    2014-05-01

    Recently the European Parliament has agreed that an atlas for the storage potential of CO2 is of high importance to have a successful commercial introduction of CCS (CO2 capture and geological storage) technology in Europe. CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) is often proposed as a promising business case for CCS, and likely has a high potential in the North Sea region. Traditional economic assessments for CO2-EOR largely neglect the geological reality of reservoir uncertainties because these are difficult to introduce realistically in such calculations. There is indeed a gap between the outcome of a reservoir simulation and the input values for e.g. cost-benefit evaluations, especially where it concerns uncertainty. The approach outlined here is to turn the procedure around, and to start from which geological data is typically (or minimally) requested for an economic assessment. Thereafter it is evaluated how this data can realistically be provided by geologists and reservoir engineers. For the storage of CO2 these parameters are total and yearly CO2 injection capacity, and containment or potential on leakage. Specifically for the EOR operation, two additional parameters can be defined: the EOR ratio, or the ratio of recovered oil over injected CO2, and the CO2 recycling ratio of CO2 that is reproduced after breakthrough at the production well. A critical but typically estimated parameter for CO2-EOR projects is the EOR ratio, taken in this brief outline as an example. The EOR ratio depends mainly on local geology (e.g. injection per well), field design (e.g. number of wells), and time. Costs related to engineering can be estimated fairly good, given some uncertainty range. The problem is usually to reliably estimate the geological parameters that define the EOR ratio. Reliable data is only available from (onshore) CO2-EOR projects in the US. Published studies for the North Sea generally refer to these data in a simplified form, without uncertainty ranges, and are

  5. Integrating a Decision Management Tool with UML Modeling Tools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    the development process. In this report, we propose an integration of a decision management and a UML-based modeling tool, based on use cases we distill from a case study: the modeling tool shall show all decisions related to a model and allow its users to extend or update them; the decision management tool shall......Numerous design decisions are made while developing software systems, which influence the architecture of these systems as well as following decisions. A number of decision management tools already exist for capturing, documenting, and maintaining design decisions, but also for guiding developers...... trigger the modeling tool to realize design decisions in the models. We define tool-independent concepts and architecture building blocks supporting these use cases and present how they can be implemented in the IBM Rational Software Modeler and Architectural Decision Knowledge Wiki. This seamless...

  6. Low flows and reservoir management for the Durance River basin (Southern France) in the 2050s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    . A model of water management similar to the tools used by Electricité De France was calibrated to simulate the behavior of the three reservoirs Serre-Ponçon, Castillon, Sainte-Croix on present-day conditions. This model simulates water releases from reservoir under constraints imposed by rule curves, ecological flows downstream to the dams and water levels in summer for recreational purposes. The results demonstrate the relatively good performance of this simplified model and its ability to represent the influence of reservoir operations on the natural hydrological river flow regime, the decision-making involved in water management and the interactions at regional scale. Four territorial socio-economic scenarios have been also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the area supplied with water from the Durance River basin. This presentation will focus on the specific tools developed within the project to simulate water management and water abstractions. The main conclusions related to the risk of water shortage in the 2050s and the level of satisfaction for each water use will be also discussed.

  7. Development of transportation asset management decision support tools : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-09

    This study developed a web-based prototype decision support platform to demonstrate the benefits of transportation asset management in monitoring asset performance, supporting asset funding decisions, planning budget tradeoffs, and optimizing resourc...

  8. Decision support system for use in smart wells for the development of oil reservoirs; Sistema de apoio a decisao para uso de pocos inteligentes no desenvolvimento de reservatorios de petroleo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Luciana Faletti [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica Celso Suckow da Fonseca (CEFET-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: faletti@ele.puc-rio.br; Pacheco, Marco Aurelio Cavalcanti; Vellasco, Marley Maria Bernardes Rebuzzi; Tupac Valdivia, Yvan Jesus; Lazo, Juan Guillermo [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC/Rio), RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: marco@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: marley@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: yvantv@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: juan@ele.puc-rio.br

    2008-06-15

    Reservoir management is an essential task aimed at the challenge of optimizing the exploration of petroliferous reservoirs. In response to such a challenge, the oil and gas industry has been developing new technologies, such as intelligent wells. These wells are intended to reduce the costs of the more commonplace restoring operations by controlling their technology. This work studies the development of intelligent fields and introduces a decision taking support system able to optimize, through evolutionary algorithms, the intelligent well technology control process considering the technical uncertainties: in valves and geological failures. Moreover, the system proposes to support decision taking, to use or not intelligent wells, given a reservoir ready to be explored or to receive expansion investments. The optimization seeks a strategy of pro-active control, in other words, act before the effect, seeking in the initial production times a configuration of valves capable of: delaying the arrival of the water cut of the production wells, accelerate the oil production or to improve the oil recovery. As a result, an operation that maximizes the NPV (Net present value). The model was tested in three reservoirs, the first being a synthetic reservoir, and the others with more realistic characteristics. (author)

  9. INFORMATION AND STRATEGIC DECISIONS IN ECONOMIC ENTITIES MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LUCIAN IOAN SABĂU

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Information and decision are two key elements economic entities management. Information represents the support of decision making by those managing the economic entity, helping them take the right decision for them to achieve set objectives. Strategic decisions provide long-term success of the economic entity outlining its internal and external stand. Those responsible for making strategic decisions have the ability to influence the economic entity’s success through these decisions they take, the role of the strategy being to ensure perfect correspondence between what the economic entity can do and what it could do, given the opportunities and threats in the environment they conduct business.

  10. Compliance Principles for Decision Management Solutions at the Dutch Government

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    dr. Martijn Zoet; Koen Smit; Dr.ir. Raymond Slot

    2016-01-01

    From the article: Abstract Since decision management is becoming an integrated part of business process management, more and more decision management implementations are realized. Therefore, organizations search for guidance to design such solutions. Principles are often applied to guide the design

  11. Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şükrü Ada

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

  12. Merging paradigms: Decision Making, Management, and Cognitive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jens

    1996-01-01

    The paper discusses the trend in paradigms within decision research, drifting from concepts of decision making in terms of normative models of 'rational decision making, through behavioral models in terms of 'biases' - deviations from rational models, toward models of actual decision making...... behavior, such as the SRK concept, naturalistic decision making, and dynamic decision making.In this evolution, concepts such as decision making, management, and behavioral control merge and a concurrent change in concepts underlying design of systems aiming at control of behavior is visible, from...

  13. Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabbe, Shon R.; Sridhar, Banavar; Mukherjee, Avijit

    2009-01-01

    A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

  14. Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Müller

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, the Kessem–Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i recent conditions and (ii future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i rule curves with a high degree of freedom – this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

  15. Optimal Reoperation of Multi-Reservoirs for Integrated Watershed Management with Multiple Benefits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinyi Xu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Constructing reservoirs can make more efficient use of water resources for human society. However, the negative impacts of these projects on the environment are often ignored. Optimal reoperation of reservoirs, which considers not only in socio-economic values but also environmental benefits, is increasingly important. A model of optimal reoperation of multi-reservoirs for integrated watershed management with multiple benefits was proposed to alleviate the conflict between water use and environmental deterioration. The social, economic, water quality and ecological benefits were respectively taken into account as the scheduling objectives and quantified according to economic models. River minimum ecological flows and reservoir water levels based on flood control were taken as key constraint conditions. Feasible search discrete differential dynamic programming (FS-DDDP was used to run the model. The proposed model was used in the upstream of the Nanpan River, to quantitatively evaluate the difference between optimal reoperation and routine operation. The results indicated that the reoperation could significantly increase the water quality benefit and have a minor effect on the benefits of power generation and irrigation under different hydrological years. The model can be readily adapted to other multi-reservoir systems for water resources management.

  16. Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Ruben; Gebretsadik, Henok Y.; Schütze, Niels

    2016-05-01

    Recently, the Kessem-Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i) recent conditions and (ii) future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i) rule curves with a high degree of freedom - this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii) smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

  17. Reservoir Management using seasonal forecasts in Lake Kariba and Lake Kahora Bassa: Initial results and plans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Muchuru, S

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal forecasting as a tool to improve on reservoir management in Zimbabwe is presented. The focus of the talk is on predicting rainfall extremes over the Lake Kariba catchments. The forecast systems to do the predictions and the levels of skill...

  18. Suspended-sediment transport and storage: A demonstration of acoustic methods in the evaluation of reservoir management strategies for a small water-supply reservoir in western Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Cory A.; Richards, Rodney J.; Collins, Kent L.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) and local stakeholder groups are evaluating reservoir-management strategies within Paonia Reservoir. This small reservoir fills to capacity each spring and requires approximately half of the snowmelt-runoff volume from its sediment-laden source waters, Muddy Creek. The U.S. Geological Survey is currently conducting high-resolution (15-minute data-recording interval) sediment monitoring to characterize incoming and outgoing sediment flux during reservoir operations at two sites on Muddy Creek. The high-resolution monitoring is being used to establish current rates of reservoir sedimentation, support USBR sediment transport and storage models, and assess the viability of water-storage recovery in Paonia Reservoir. These sites are equipped with in situ, single-frequency, side-looking acoustic Doppler current meters in conjunction with turbidity sensors to monitor sediment flux. This project serves as a demonstration of the capability of using surrogate techniques to predict suspended-sediment concentrations in small streams (less than 20 meters in width and 2 meters in depth). These two sites provide the ability to report near real-time suspended-sediment concentrations through the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Information System (NWIS) web interface and National Real-Time Water Quality websites (NRTWQ) to aid in reservoir operations and assessments.

  19. A Multi-criterial Decision Support System for Forest Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Geneho Kim; Walter D. Potter; Mark J. Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Scott Thomasma; Deborah Bennett; Peter Kollasch

    1999-01-01

    We describe a research project that has as its goal development of a full-featured decision support system for managing forested land to satisfy multiple criteria represented as timber, wildlife, water, ecological, and wildlife objectives. The decision process proposed for what was originally conceived of as a Northeast Decision Model (NED) includes data acquisition,...

  20. Stochastic Management of the Open Large Water Reservoir with Storage Function with Using a Genetic Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2016-10-01

    Described models are used random forecasting period of flow line with different length. The length is shorter than 1 year. Forecasting period of flow line is transformed to line of managing discharges with same length as forecast. Adaptive managing is used only first value of line of discharges. Stochastic management is worked with dispersion of controlling discharge value. Main advantage stochastic management is fun of possibilities. In article is described construction and evaluation of adaptive stochastic model base on genetic algorithm (classic optimization method). Model was used for stochastic management of open large water reservoir with storage function. Genetic algorithm is used as optimization algorithm. Forecasted inflow is given to model and controlling discharge value is computed by model for chosen probability of controlling discharge value. Model was tested and validated on made up large open water reservoir. Results of stochastic model were evaluated for given probability and were compared to results of same model for 100% forecast (forecasted values are real values). The management of the large open water reservoir with storage function was done logically and with increased sum number of forecast from 300 to 500 the results given by model were better, but another increased from 500 to 750 and 1000 did not get expected improvement. Influence on course of management was tested for different length forecasted inflow and their sum number. Classical optimization model is needed too much time for calculation, therefore stochastic model base on genetic algorithm was used parallel calculation on cluster.

  1. Contribution of Systematic Reviews to Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    COOK, CARLY N; POSSINGHAM, HUGH P; FULLER, RICHARD A

    2014-01-01

    Systematic reviews comprehensively summarize evidence about the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We investigated the contribution to management decisions made by this growing body of literature. We identified 43 systematic reviews of conservation evidence, 23 of which drew some concrete conclusions relevant to management. Most reviews addressed conservation interventions relevant to policy decisions; only 35% considered practical on-the-ground management interventions. The majority of reviews covered only a small fraction of the geographic and taxonomic breadth they aimed to address (median = 13% of relevant countries and 16% of relevant taxa). The likelihood that reviews contained at least some implications for management tended to increase as geographic coverage increased and to decline as taxonomic breadth increased. These results suggest the breadth of a systematic review requires careful consideration. Reviews identified a mean of 312 relevant primary studies but excluded 88% of these because of deficiencies in design or a failure to meet other inclusion criteria. Reviews summarized on average 284 data sets and 112 years of research activity, yet the likelihood that their results had at least some implications for management did not increase as the amount of primary research summarized increased. In some cases, conclusions were elusive despite the inclusion of hundreds of data sets and years of cumulative research activity. Systematic reviews are an important part of the conservation decision making tool kit, although we believe the benefits of systematic reviews could be significantly enhanced by increasing the number of reviews focused on questions of direct relevance to on-the-ground managers; defining a more focused geographic and taxonomic breadth that better reflects available data; including a broader range of evidence types; and appraising the cost-effectiveness of interventions. Contribuciones de las Revisiones Sistemáticas a las

  2. Modeling Alpine hydropower reservoirs management to study the water-energy nexus under change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Fumagalli, E.; Weber, E.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) were already observed over the last few years and produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system, Italy. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series.. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e.g. expansion of the electric vehicle sector, load

  3. 43 CFR 4.416 - Appeals of wildfire management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 43 Public Lands: Interior 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Appeals of wildfire management decisions. 4.416 Section 4.416 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior DEPARTMENT... Board of Land Appeals § 4.416 Appeals of wildfire management decisions. The Board must decide appeals...

  4. Learning to manage quality in a multiple reservoir system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper describes the role of participatory modelling and simulation as a way to provide a meaningful framework to enable actors to understand the interdependencies in peri-urban catchment management. A role-playing game, connecting the quantitative and qualitative dynamics of the resources with social interactions ...

  5. Group decision-making techniques for natural resource management applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coughlan, Beth A.K.; Armour, Carl L.

    1992-01-01

    This report is an introduction to decision analysis and problem-solving techniques for professionals in natural resource management. Although these managers are often called upon to make complex decisions, their training in the natural sciences seldom provides exposure to the decision-making tools developed in management science. Our purpose is to being to fill this gap. We present a general analysis of the pitfalls of group problem solving, and suggestions for improved interactions followed by the specific techniques. Selected techniques are illustrated. The material is easy to understand and apply without previous training or excessive study and is applicable to natural resource management issues.

  6. THE METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES OF ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. I. Solopenko

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The necessity of economic ground of administrative decisions related to the operation, staff, financial, investment, information & telecommunication, innovative, marketing and international economic activities of an aviation enterprise is determined foe such an enterprise, and the procedure of economic substantiation of administrative decisions with use of economico-mathematical modelling in automated control system (ACS for an aviation enterprise is implemented.

  7. Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

    2017-01-01

    Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

  8. ENHANCING RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT IN THE APPALACHIAN BASIN BY IDENTIFYING TECHNICAL BARRIER AND PREFERRED PRACTICES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ronald R. McDowell; Khashayar Aminian; Katharine L. Avary; John M. Bocan; Michael Ed. Hohn; Douglas G. Patchen

    2003-09-01

    The Preferred Upstream Management Practices (PUMP) project, a two-year study sponsored by the United States Department of Energy (USDOE), had three primary objectives: (1) the identification of problems, problematic issues, potential solutions and preferred practices related to oil production; (2) the creation of an Appalachian Regional Council to oversee and continue this investigation beyond the end of the project; and (3) the dissemination of investigative results to the widest possible audience, primarily by means of an interactive website. Investigation and identification of oil production problems and preferred management practices began with a Problem Identification Workshop in January of 2002. Three general issues were selected by participants for discussion: Data Management; Reservoir Engineering; and Drilling Practices. At the same meeting, the concept of the creation of an oversight organization to evaluate and disseminated preferred management practices (PMP's) after the end of the project was put forth and volunteers were solicited. In-depth interviews were arranged with oil producers to gain more insight into problems and potential solutions. Project members encountered considerable reticence on the part of interviewees when it came to revealing company-specific production problems or company-specific solutions. This was the case even though interviewees were assured that all responses would be held in confidence. Nevertheless, the following production issues were identified and ranked in order of decreasing importance: Water production including brine disposal; Management of production and business data; Oil field power costs; Paraffin accumulation; Production practices including cementing. An number of secondary issues were also noted: Problems associated with Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) and Waterflooding; Reservoir characterization; Employee availability, training, and safety; and Sale and Purchase problems. One item was mentioned both in

  9. Decisions an engineering and management perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Gaynor, G

    2015-01-01

    This book considers what it takes to convert the macro decision into a positive outcome; to resolve the gap that exists between the macro and subsidiary decisions; to understand why so many decisions fail to meet expectations; to direct the mindset of the engineering community to focus on its relation to other organizational units; to perform diligently the up-front work required to meet objectives; to stop squandering valuable talent and resources; to urge engineers and other discipline professionals to take a more business-oriented approach in participating in the organization's decision-making process; lastly, to not only recognize the importance of and the role of communication in all decision-making processes, but to initiate appropriate communication processes.

  10. Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Mandy L.; Juracek, Kyle E.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy

    2015-01-01

    average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

  11. Underground natural gas storage reservoir management: Phase 2. Final report, June 1, 1995--March 30, 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ortiz, I.; Anthony, R.V.

    1996-12-31

    Gas storage operators are facing increased and more complex responsibilities for managing storage operations under Order 636 which requires unbundling of storage from other pipeline services. Low cost methods that improve the accuracy of inventory verification are needed to optimally manage this stored natural gas. Migration of injected gas out of the storage reservoir has not been well documented by industry. The first portion of this study addressed the scope of unaccounted for gas which may have been due to migration. The volume range was estimated from available databases and reported on an aggregate basis. Information on working gas, base gas, operating capacity, injection and withdrawal volumes, current and non-current revenues, gas losses, storage field demographics and reservoir types is contained among the FERC Form 2, EIA Form 191, AGA and FERC Jurisdictional databases. The key elements of this study show that gas migration can result if reservoir limits have not been properly identified, gas migration can occur in formation with extremely low permeability (0.001 md), horizontal wellbores can reduce gas migration losses and over-pressuring (unintentionally) storage reservoirs by reinjecting working gas over a shorter time period may increase gas migration effects.

  12. Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Quality of Subalpine Reservoirs: Implications on Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marziali Laura

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reservoirs are characterized by accumulation of sediments where micropollutants may concentrate, with potential toxic effects on downstream river ecosystems. However, sediment management such as flushing is needed to maintain storage capacity. Climate change is expected to increase sediment loads, but potential effects on their quality are scarcely known. In this context, sediment contamination by trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn and organics (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PAHs, Polychlorinated Biphenyls PCBs and C > 12 hydrocarbons was analyzed in 20 reservoirs located in Italian Central Alps. A strong As and a moderate Cd, Hg and Pb enrichment was emphasized by Igeo, with potential ecotoxicological risk according to Probable Effect Concentration quotients. Sedimentation rate, granulometry, total organic carbon (TOC and altitude resulted as the main drivers governing pollutant concentrations in sediments. According to climate change models, expected increase of rainfall erosivity will enhance soil erosion and consequently the sediment flow to reservoirs, potentially increasing coarse grain fractions and thus potentially diluting pollutants. Conversely, increased weathering may enhance metal fluxes to reservoirs. Increased vegetation cover will potentially result in higher TOC concentrations, which may contrast contaminant bioavailability and thus toxicity. Our results may provide elements for a proper management of contaminated sediments in a climate change scenario aiming at preserving water quality and ecosystem functioning.

  13. Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

    2012-01-01

    Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

  14. Linkage of management decision to shareholder's value: EVA concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrikant Krupasindhu Panigrahi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the author investigated the influence of management decisions like capital structure, dividend policies, remunerations, credit policy decisions and investment decisions on shareholder wealth maximization. To achieve the objective, portfolio theory, capital asset pricing model and modern financial theory providing evidence on the linkage between management decisions to shareholder’s value. Shareholders are only concerned about the value of shares of the company and the amount of return in the form of dividend paid. Thus in order to meet the demands of the shareholders of the company, managers needs to increase their abilities and skills to overcome the organizational goals. Thus the main goal of this paper is to discuss on the role of management decisions towards increasing shareholder’s wealth and meet organizational goals.

  15. Markov decision processes in natural resources management: observability and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Byron K.

    2015-01-01

    The breadth and complexity of stochastic decision processes in natural resources presents a challenge to analysts who need to understand and use these approaches. The objective of this paper is to describe a class of decision processes that are germane to natural resources conservation and management, namely Markov decision processes, and to discuss applications and computing algorithms under different conditions of observability and uncertainty. A number of important similarities are developed in the framing and evaluation of different decision processes, which can be useful in their applications in natural resources management. The challenges attendant to partial observability are highlighted, and possible approaches for dealing with it are discussed.

  16. A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

    2017-01-01

    Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

  17. Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

    2011-06-01

    Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

  18. Local Water Management of Small Reservoirs: Lessons from Two Case Studies in Burkina Faso

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilmy Sally

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Burkina Faso is actively pursuing the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM in its development plans. Several policy and institutional mechanisms have been put in place, including the adoption of a national IWRM action plan (PAGIRE and the establishment so far of 30 local water management committees (Comités Locaux de l’Eau, or CLE. The stated purpose of the CLE is to take responsibility for managing water at sub-basin level. The two case studies discussed in this paper illustrate gaps between the policy objective of promoting IWRM on the one hand, and the realities associated with its practical on-the-ground implementation on the other. A significant adjustment that occurred in practice is the fact that the two CLE studied have been set up as entities focused on reservoir management, whereas it is envisioned that a CLE would constitute a platform for sub-basin management. This reflects a concern to minimise conflict and optimally manage the country’s primary water resource and illustrates the type of pragmatic actions that have to be taken to make IWRM a reality. It is also observed that the local water management committees have not been able to satisfactorily address questions regarding access to, and allocation of, water, which are crucial for the satisfactory functioning of the reservoirs. Water resources in the reservoirs appear to be controlled by the dominant user. In order to correct this trend, measures to build mutual trust and confidence among water users 'condemned' to work together to manage their common resource are suggested, foremost of which is the need to collect and share reliable data. Awareness of power relationships among water user groups and building on functioning, already existing formal or informal arrangements for water sharing are key determinants for successful implementation of the water reform process underway.

  19. Decision management - projects subject to uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.E. Paterson

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The human mind is normally unable to grasp more than five to nine aspects relating to the same decision circumstances simultaneously. It has been demonstrated that only between four and eight variables significantly affect return on engineering projects (at the 90% level irrespective of scale. The most powerful means of isolating these significant variables is by computer simulation. This is demonstrated through the application of the interactive CASPAR programme to a simulated mining project. The significant variables are separated into controllable, influence able and uncontrollable categories for decision and control purposes since the nature of the speculative risk differs. The managerial treatment of each category is discussed.

  20. Assessment of water management tools for the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, Michael; Altmannsberger, Charlotte

    2016-04-01

    Water management tools are essential to ensure the conservation of natural resources. The geothermal hot water reservoir below the village of Waiwera, on the Northern Island of New Zealand is used commercially since 1863. The continuous production of 50 °C hot geothermal water, to supply hotels and spas, has a negative impact on the reservoir. Until the year 1969 from all wells drilled the warm water flow was artesian. Due to overproduction the water needs to be pumped up nowadays. Further, within the years 1975 to 1976 the warm water seeps on the beach of Waiwera ran dry. In order to protect the reservoir and the historical and tourist site in the early 1980s a Water Management Plan was deployed. The "Auckland Regional Water Board" today "Auckland Regional Council" established guidelines to enable a sustainable management [1]. The management plan demands that the water level in the official and appropriate observation well of the council is 0.5 m above sea level throughout the year in average. Almost four decades of data (since 1978 until today) are now available [2]. The minimum water level was observed beginning of the 1980s with -1.25 m and the maximum recently with 1.6 m. The higher the production rates from the field, the lower the water level in the observation well. Highest abstraction rates reached almost 1,500 m3/day and lowest were just above 500 m3/day. Several models of varying complexity where used from purely data driven statistical to fully coupled process simulation models. In all cases the available data were used for calibration and the models were then applied for predictive purposes. We used the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index to quantify their predictive ability. The recommendation for the full implementation of the water management plan is the regular revision of an existing multivariate regression model which is based on the Theis well equation. Further, we suggest improving the underlying geological model of the process simulations to

  1. Visualising Pareto-optimal trade-offs helps move beyond monetary-only criteria for water management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

    2014-05-01

    Water related eco-system services are important to the livelihoods of the poorest sectors of society in developing countries. Degradation or loss of these services can increase the vulnerability of people decreasing their capacity to support themselves. New approaches to help guide water resources management decisions are needed which account for the non-market value of ecosystem goods and services. In case studies from Brazil and Kenya we demonstrate the capability of many objective Pareto-optimal trade-off analysis to help decision makers balance economic and non-market benefits from the management of existing multi-reservoir systems. A multi-criteria search algorithm is coupled to a water resources management simulator of each basin to generate a set of Pareto-approximate trade-offs representing the best case management decisions. In both cases, volume dependent reservoir release rules are the management decisions being optimised. In the Kenyan case we further assess the impacts of proposed irrigation investments, and how the possibility of new investments impacts the system's trade-offs. During the multi-criteria search (optimisation), performance of different sets of management decisions (policies) is assessed against case-specific objective functions representing provision of water supply and irrigation, hydropower generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Results are visualised as trade-off surfaces to help decision makers understand the impacts of different policies on a broad range of stakeholders and to assist in decision-making. These case studies show how the approach can reveal unexpected opportunities for win-win solutions, and quantify the trade-offs between investing to increase agricultural revenue and negative impacts on protected ecosystems which support rural livelihoods.

  2. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

    2011-01-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

  3. Influence of Culture on the Process of Managing Decisions Adoption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin-Lucian Isac

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Different cultural environment requires a corresponding managerial environment. The process of managing decisions adoption is influenced by the values, attitudes, beliefs and behaviors of the employees.

  4. Benefit cost models to support pavement management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    A critical role of pavement management is to provide decision makers with estimates of the required budget level to achieve specific steady-state network conditions, and to recommend the best allocation of available budget among competing needs for m...

  5. Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molino, Bruno; De Vincenzo, Annamaria; Ferone, Claudio; Messina, Francesco; Colangelo, Francesco; Cioffi, Raffaele

    2014-07-31

    Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. ) represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

  6. Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Molino

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

  7. A Knowledge- Based Decision Support Architecture for Advanced Traffic Management

    OpenAIRE

    Ritchie, Stephen G.

    1990-01-01

    Fundamental to the operation of most currently envisioned Intelligent Vehicle-Roadway System (IVRS) projects are advanced systems for surveillance, control and management of integrated freeway and arterial networks. A major concern in the development of such Smart Roads, and the focus of this paper, is the provision of decision support for traffic management center personnel, particularly for addressing nonrecurring congestion in large or complex networks. Decision support for control room st...

  8. Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models....... management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses and its stakeholders.......Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models...... evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...

  9. Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2017-12-01

    The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for

  10. Risk Management and Insurance Decisions under Ambiguity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martínez-Correa, Jimmy

    portfolio theory that assumes Subjective Expected Utility theory; however, it provides hints to a possible solution of the under-diversification puzzle of households. I also identify conditions under which more risk or ambiguity aversion decreases the demand for coinsurance. Additionally, I show......I study the impact of ambiguity on insurance decisions and the optimality of insurance contracts. My tractable approach allows me to study the interaction between risk and ambiguity attitudes. When insurance decisions are made independently of other assets, for a given increase in wealth, both risk...... and ambiguity attitudes interact in nontrivial ways to determine the change of coinsurance demand. I derive sufficient conditions to guarantee that the optimal coinsurance demand is decreasing in wealth. When a non-traded asset is introduced, my model predicts behavior that is inconsistent with the classical...

  11. Management decisions for cogeneration: executive summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Radcliffe, R.R.; Tabors, R.D.

    1982-07-01

    This report summarizes two interdependent studies which explore the underlying factors in the decision by private, private non-profit, and public sector facility owners to invest in cogeneration technology. They employ factor analysis techniques to explain the decision to invest and discriminant analysis to group the survey respondents into non-cogenerators and potential cogenerators. Data for both studies come from a survey of commercial, industrial, and institutional electric energy consumers who used more than 750 kW demand in any one month of 1981 for a selected electric utility in the Boston area. There were 129 usable responses to the survey of 32.2% of the population. The studies reported here confirm that a number of factors other than purely economic considerations may prevent use of cogeneration technology at the present time. These factors include: uncertainty caused by regulatory action; desire for energy self sufficiency by the organization; financial flexibility; experience with electricity cogeneration or self generation; and capital budget planning methods. These studies provide a ranking of the factors involved in the cogeneration decision explaining most variance to least variance. However, the ranking of factors provides no measure of the importance of these factors in the decision to adopt or not adopt cogeneration technology. The results of these studies can be used to provide a rough estimate of capacity (kW) and energy (kWh) available from potential cogenerators in this electric utility service territory and the probability that a facility can be a cogenerator. These studies project a maximum potential of 106 MW and 559,000 MWH of cogenerated electrical energy in the utility service territory between 1982 and 2002.

  12. Organising evidence for environmental management decisions: a '4S' hierarchy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicks, Lynn V; Walsh, Jessica C; Sutherland, William J

    2014-11-01

    Making decisions informed by the best-available science is an objective for many organisations managing the environment or natural resources. Yet, available science is still not widely used in environmental policy and practice. We describe a '4S' hierarchy for organising relevant science to inform decisions. This hierarchy has already revolutionised clinical practice. It is beginning to emerge for environmental management, although all four levels need substantial development before environmental decision-makers can reliably and efficiently find the evidence they need. We expose common bypass routes that currently lead to poor or biased representation of scientific knowledge. We argue that the least developed level of the hierarchy is that closest to decision-makers, placing synthesised scientific knowledge into environmental decision support systems. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation Chung-Lien Cheng, Wen-Ping Tsai, Fi-John Chang* Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Da-An District, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC.Corresponding author: Fi-John Chang (changfj@ntu.edu.tw) AbstractIn Taiwan, the population growth and economic development has led to considerable and increasing demands for natural water resources in the last decades. Under such condition, water shortage problems have frequently occurred in northern Taiwan in recent years such that water is usually transferred from irrigation sectors to public sectors during drought periods. Facing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the problems of increasing water shortages, it is a primary and critical issue to simultaneously satisfy multiple water uses through adequate reservoir operations for sustainable water resources management. Therefore, we intend to build an intelligent reservoir operation system for the assessment of agricultural water resources management strategy in response to food security during drought periods. This study first uses the grey system to forecast the agricultural water demand during February and April for assessing future agricultural water demands. In the second part, we build an intelligent water resources system by using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), an optimization tool, for searching the water allocation series based on different water demand scenarios created from the first part to optimize the water supply operation for different water sectors. The results can be a reference guide for adequate agricultural water resources management during drought periods. Keywords: Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II); Grey System; Optimization; Agricultural Water Resources Management.

  14. Simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change and management scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordi Prats

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France in the medium term (2036-2065 and in the long term (2066-2095 using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect using synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%. To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i bottom outlet and present water level; ii bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024 °C·yr-1, but a

  15. Decision Aids for Multiple-Decision Disease Management as Affected by Weather Input Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many disease management decision support systems (DSS) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and manage...

  16. Decision and game theory in management with intuitionistic fuzzy sets

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Deng-Feng

    2014-01-01

    The focus of this book is on establishing theories and methods of both decision and game analysis in management using intuitionistic fuzzy sets. It proposes a series of innovative theories, models and methods such as the representation theorem and extension principle of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, ranking methods of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, non-linear and linear programming methods for intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making and (interval-valued) intuitionistic fuzzy matrix games. These theories and methods form the theory system of intuitionistic fuzzy decision making and games, which is not only remarkably different from those of the traditional, Bayes and/or fuzzy decision theory but can also provide an effective and efficient tool for solving complex management problems. Since there is a certain degree of inherent hesitancy in real-life management, which cannot always be described by the traditional mathematical methods and/or fuzzy set theory, this book offers an effective approach to us...

  17. A game-theory approach to manage decision errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cai Chuan Xi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With the fast development of modern computer and networks, information communication between firms and users becomes more complex. Recently, a game-theory approach has been widely used to investigate this issue. However, for firms and users, inaccuracies (defined as decision errors persist in the gap between strategic decisions and actual actions. This paper, based on game theory, analyses the effects of decision errors on optimal equilibrium strategy of the firm and the user. Precisely speaking, we analysed how the firm and the user adjust their strategy accordingly to compensate for the mistakes caused by decision errors. Besides, we demonstrated that decision errors are not necessarily bad for the firm, and put forward the optimal methods of managing decision errors.

  18. Decision Support to Sustainable Management of Bottom Trawl Fleet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Bitunjac

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available A decision support concept (DSC for sustainable management of the bottom trawl fleet was created in line with ecosystem-based management. It is based on principles that integrate ecological, social and techno-economic aspects of trawl fisheries in a multicriteria analysis approach. For the sake of greater transparency and improved stakeholder participation, elements of the proposed multicriteria models were discussed, generated and evaluated in collaboration with designated experts from four stakeholder groups: fishers, environmentally focused non-governmental organizations, fisheries scientists and government representatives. The proposed DSC management could facilitate management and assist decision makers in adequately using data and scientific advice to shape management strategies and related policies for the bottom trawl fleet. It may also assist in finding compromise solutions based on deliverables from the multicriteria analysis, while taking stakeholder requirements into account by using the multicriteria Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP and Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations (PROMETHEE methods. The final decision is then based on a vast amount of knowledge and relevant information collected from different sources. The proposed DSC represents a novel approach to fishery fleet management and assists in systematizing management processes and instruments to make it operational at the strategic level. The method was applied to the Adriatic bottom trawl fishery, and the obtained results confirmed its managerial potential in the strategic decision-making process, aimed at improving conventional management, while considering the specific requirements of an ecosystem-based approach and ensuring stakeholder participation.

  19. Appropriate models in decision support systems for river basin management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, YuePing; Booij, Martijn J.; Morell, M.; Todorovik, O.; Dimitrov, D.; Selenica, A.; Spirkovski, Z.

    2004-01-01

    In recent years, new ideas and techniques appear very quickly, like sustainability, adaptive management, Geographic Information System, Remote Sensing and participations of new stakeholders, which contribute a lot to the development of decision support systems in river basin management. However, the

  20. Insect pest management decisions in food processing facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pest management decision making in food processing facilities such as flour mills, rice mills, human and pet food manufacturing facilities, distribution centers and warehouses, and retail stores is a challenging undertaking. Insect pest management programs require an understanding of the food facili...

  1. Mercury bioaccumulation in the food web of Three Gorges Reservoir (China): Tempo-spatial patterns and effect of reservoir management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Jun [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Zhou, Qiong, E-mail: hainan@mail.hzau.edu.cn [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Yuan, Gailing; He, Xugang [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Freshwater Aquaculture Collaborative Innovation Center of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070 (China); Xie, Ping [College of Fisheries, Huazhong Agricultural University, Key Laboratory of Freshwater Animal Breeding, Ministry of Agriculture, Wuhan 430070 (China); Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems, State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotechnology of China, Institute of Hydrobiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430072 (China)

    2015-09-15

    Tempo-spatial patterns of mercury bioaccumulation and tropho-dynamics, and the potential for a reservoir effect were evaluated in the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR, China) from 2011 to 2012, using total mercury concentrations (THg) and stable isotopes (δ{sup 13}C and δ{sup 15}N) of food web components (seston, aquatic invertebrates and fish). Hg concentrations in aquatic invertebrates and fish indicated a significant temporal trend associated with regular seasonal water-level manipulation. This includes water level lowering to allow for storage of water during the wet season (summer); a decrease of water levels from September to June providing a setting for flood storage. Hg concentrations in organisms were the highest after flooding. Higher Hg concentrations in fish were observed at the location farthest from the dam. Hg concentrations in water and sediment were correlated. Compared with the reservoirs of United States and Canada, TGR had lower trophic magnification factors (0.046–0.066), that are explained primarily by organic carbon concentrations in sediment, and the effect of “growth dilution”. Based on comparison before and after the impoundment of TGR, THg concentration in biota did not display an obvious long-term reservoir effect due to (i) short time since inundation, (ii) regular water discharge associated with water-level regulation, and/or (iii) low organic matter content in the sediment. - Highlights: • Hg concentrations were measured in biota of the main stem of 3 Gorges Reservoir. • Fish Hg concentration post-flood period > pre-flood period > flood period. • Fish Hg concentrations were the highest farthest from the dam. • THg in fish 2 years after inundation were the same as before impoundment. • Low biomagnification was ascribed to low DOC content in the sediment.

  2. Decision-making methodology for management of hazardous waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Philbin, J.S.; Cranwell, R.M.

    1988-01-01

    A decision-making methodology is presented that combines systems and risk analysis techniques to evaluate hazardous waste management practices associated with DOE weapon production operations. The methodology provides a systematic approach to examining waste generation and waste handling practices in addition to the more visible disposal practices. Release-exposure scenarios for hazardous waste operations are identified and operational risk is determined. Comparisons may be made between existing and alternative waste management practices (and processes) on the basis of overall risk, cost and compliance with regulations. Managers can use this methodology to make and defend resource allocation decisions and to prioritize research needs

  3. Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

    2017-12-01

    Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

  4. Guidance Tools for Use in Nuclear Material Management Decisions Making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, G. V.; Baker, D. J.; Sorenson, K. B.; Boeke, S. G.

    2002-02-26

    This paper describes the results of Recommendation 14 of the Integrated Nuclear Materials Management Plan (INMMP) which was the product of a management initiative at the highest levels of the Department of Energy responding to a congressional directive to accelerate the work of achieving integration and cutting long-term costs associated with the management of nuclear materials, with the principal focus on excess materials. The INMMP provided direction to ''Develop policy-level decision support tools to support long-term planning and decision making.'' To accomplish this goal a team from the Savannah River Site, Sandia National Laboratories, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), and the U.S. Department of Energy experienced in the decision-making process developed a Guidebook to Decision-Making Methods. The goal of the team organized to implement Recommendation 14 was to instill transparency, consistency, rigor, and discipline in the DOE decision process. The guidebook introduces a process and a selection of proven methods for disciplined decision-making so that the results are clearer, more transparent, and easier for reviewers to understand and accept. It was written to set a standard for a consistent decision process.

  5. Make use of dynamic data - a constraint based EnKF for SAGD reservoir characterization and production management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gul, Ali; Nejadi, Siavash; Shah, Sirish L; Trivedi, Japan J [University of Alberta (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    Steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) is a thermal recovery process widely used in the Athabasca oil sands, the largest bitumen reservoir in the world. In order to optimize the process, an accurate characterization of the reservoir heterogeneity and identification of the potential steam barriers is necessary. The aim of this paper was to assess the potential of constraint based ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach with localization to address these issues. Data records from observation, production and injection wells were used and the method was tested on a twin well SAGD process and a single well SAGD model with hybrid grids. Results showed a better characterization of the reservoir's heterogeneity and a reduction of uncertainty in the prediction of steam chamber growth. The technique developed herein provides accurate information about the steam chamber and the reservoir heterogeneity and can be used for planning and decision making of other field development strategies.

  6. Climate change impacts on water supply: implications for reservoir management in Upper Sabor, northeast Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho-Santos, Claudia; Monteiro, António T.; Azevedo, João; Nunes, João Pedro

    2016-04-01

    Climate change scenarios project warmer temperatures and less precipitation in Mediterranean watersheds. This can aggravate drought conditions, with negative impacts on water supply. Here, reservoirs may play an important role to mitigate these impacts. However, the implications of climate change are not always considered in the reservoir planning and management. This study aimed to address this issue for the Upper Sabor watershed, northeast Portugal. This is a medium watershed (403km2), part of the Sabor river, a tributary of Douro (one of the major rivers in the Iberian Peninsula). It is a mountainous watershed (up to 1500m), characterized by humid Mediterranean climate, with three dry months in summer. Almost 52% of the area is occupied by shrubland and 18% agriculture. Water supply for about 33 000 people has been based almost exclusively in one reservoir, but constant problems of water supply in dry summers, which coincide with a doubling of population due to summer holidays, led to the construction of a new reservoir in 2015. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used for a climate change impact assessment, considering the current water supply regime (single reservoir) and the construction of the new reservoir. SWAT was calibrated and validated against daily-observed discharge and reservoir volume, with a good agreement between model predictions and observations. Results from four GCMs (General Circulation Models) for two scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were statistically downscaled and bias-corrected with ground observations; climate scenarios for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 were compared with a control period in 1981-2000. In the future, a general increase of temperatures is expected in the Upper Sabor watershed, especially in the maximum temperature under RCP 8.5 scenario for 2041-2060 (Tmax: +2.88°C). The change in precipitation is more uncertain, with larger differences according to the selected climate model. Annual precipitation would

  7. Project Manager Performance and the Decision to Backsource the Project Management Office

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lively, William R.

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews a management decision of an Information Technology Outsource (ITO) provider to backshore the management oversight of its Project Management Office (PMO) after only one year of offshore operations. Governance is a term used in project management to refer to management oversight. The review is a quantitative analysis of existing…

  8. Knowledge Management Technology for Decision Support: an empirical examination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meliha Handzic

    2001-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the effectiveness of one type of knowledge management technology, namely 'contextual knowledge repository', for supporting individual decision makers in a predictive judgement task context. 31 volunteer subjects participated in the study. The results indicate that a given technology was fairly useful, but insufficient to maximally enhance individual decision making. On one hand, subjects were found to extract more knowledge and make significantly smaller decision errors than their notional naive counterparts. On the other hand, subjects tended to extract less knowledge and make significantly larger decision errors compared to notional optimal counterparts. These findings suggest that individuals could potentially benefit from those knowledge management technologies that would provide additional explicit analytical and procedural knowledge, or those that would facilitate sharing of tacit knowledge through interaction with others. Future research is necessary to address these issues.

  9. Decision support system for containment and release management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oosterhuis, B.

    1995-09-01

    The Containment and Release Management project was carried out within the Reinforced Concerted Action Programme for Accident Management Support and partly financed by the European Union. In this report a prototype of an accident management support system is presented. The support system integrates several concepts from accident management research, like safety objective trees, severe accident phenomena, calculation models and an emergency response data system. These concepts are provided by the prototype in such a way that the decision making process of accident management is supported. The prototype application is demonstrated by process data taken from a severe accident scenario for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) that was simulated with the thermohydraulic computer program MAAP. The prototype was derived from a decision support framework based on a decision theory. For established and innovative concepts from accident management research it is pointed out in which way these concepts can support accident management and how these concepts can be integrated. This approach is generic in two ways; it applies to both pressurized and boiling water reactors and it applies to both in vessel management and containment and release management. The prototype application was developed in Multimedia Toolbox 3.0 and requires at least a 386 PC with 4 MB memory, 6 MB free disk space and MS Windows 3.1. (orig.)

  10. Factors that influence producer decisions to implement management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Thomas G

    2014-12-01

    Cow-calf enterprises in the USA are widely divergent in size, locale, resource availability, management skill, and market focus. Furthermore, variation exists in dependence on the cow-calf enterprise as a primary source of income, perception about the utility of a particular management practice or technology, and assessment of cost: benefit resulting from implementation impact decisions. Enterprises with larger cow inventories, greater dependence on income from the cattle enterprise, and that retain ownership further into the supply chain beyond the cow-calf operation are more likely to institute management protocols such as vaccination programs, defined calving seasons, and reproductive technologies. Successful cow-calf managers place the highest priority on herd nutrition, pasture and range management, herd health, financial management marketing, production management, and genetics. Management practices are more likely to be adopted when they align with a manager's perception of the utility, labor availability, favorable cost: benefit outcomes and profit motivation.

  11. Decision-theoretic planning of clinical patient management

    OpenAIRE

    Peek, Niels Bastiaan

    2000-01-01

    When a doctor is treating a patient, he is constantly facing decisions. From the externally visible signs and symptoms he must establish a hypothesis of what might be wrong with the patient; then he must decide whether additional diagnostic procedures are required to verify this hypothesis, whether therapeutic action is necessary, and which post-therapeutic trajectory is to be followed. All these bedside decisions are related to each other, and the whole task of clinical patient management ca...

  12. A Multidimensional Ethics Scale for Indian Managers' Moral Decision Making

    OpenAIRE

    Gupta, Seema

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the role of traditional moral theories in managers’ moral decision making using the multidimensional ethics scale (MES) developed and refined by Reidenbach and Robin (1988, 1990). This study extends their work by examining the applicability of the scale to subjects from India, other than the country in which the scale was developed. The research question is: what kind of ethical dimensions do Indian managers reveal when they are making moral decisions. Factor analysis is d...

  13. The impact of management science on political decision making

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, M. J.

    1971-01-01

    The possible impact on public policy and organizational decision making of operations research/management science (OR/MS) is discussed. Criticisms based on the assumption that OR/MS will have influence on decision making and criticisms based on the assumption that it will have no influence are described. New directions in the analysis of analysis and in thinking about policy making are also considered.

  14. Science-based natural resource management decisions: what are they?

    Science.gov (United States)

    T.J. Mills; T.M. Quigley; F.J. Everest

    2001-01-01

    While many people interested in natural resources management propose science-based decisions, it is not clear what “science-based” means. Science-based decisions are those that result from the full and complete consideration of the relevant science information. We offer five guidelines to focus the scientist’s contributions to science-based decisionmaking and use the...

  15. Game theory and fuzzy programming approaches for bi-objective optimization of reservoir watershed management: a case study in Namazgah reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Üçler, N; Engin, G Onkal; Köçken, H G; Öncel, M S

    2015-05-01

    In this study, game theory and fuzzy programming approaches were used to balance economic and environmental impacts in the Namazgah reservoir, Turkey. The main goals identified were to maximize economic benefits of land use and to protect water quality of reservoir and land resources. Total phosphorous load (kg ha(-1) year(-1)) and economic income (USD ha(-1) year(-1)) from land use were determined as environmental value and economic value, respectively. The surface area of existing land use types, which are grouped under 10 headings according to the investigations on the watershed area, and the constraint values for the watershed were calculated using aerial photos, master plans, and basin slope map. The results of fuzzy programming approach were found to be very close to the results of the game theory model. It was concluded that the amount of fertilizer used in the current situation presents a danger to the reservoir and, therefore, unnecessary fertilizer use should be prevented. Additionally, nuts, fruit, and vegetable cultivation, instead of wheat and corn cultivation, was found to be more suitable due to their high economic income and low total phosphorus (TP) load. Apart from agricultural activities, livestock farming should also be considered in the area as a second source of income. It is believed that the results obtained in this study will help decision makers to identify possible problems of the watershed.

  16. Making Financial Decisions. Financial Management Module. Operational Management Programme. Increasing Opportunities for Supervisors and Managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamson, Jan; And Others

    One of a series of three self-instructional units, these materials are aimed at helping British hotel and catering managers improve profits and/or reduce costs in their areas of responsibility. Following a paragraph on how to use the unit and an introduction, section 1 covers control levels as the framework for making decisions. The section…

  17. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making: Managing Water in a Deeply Uncertain World of Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.

    2013-12-01

    Water resources planning and management has always required the consideration of uncertainties and the associated system vulnerabilities that they may cause. Despite the long legacy of these issues, our decision support frameworks that have dominated the literature over the past 50 years have struggled with the strongly multiobjective and deeply uncertain nature of water resources systems. The term deep uncertainty (or Knightian uncertainty) refers to factors in planning that strongly shape system risks that maybe unknown and even if known there is a strong lack of consensus on their likelihoods over decadal planning horizons (population growth, financial stability, valuation of resources, ecosystem requirements, evolving water institutions, regulations, etc). In this presentation, I will propose and demonstrate the many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework for water resources management under deep uncertainty. The MORDM framework will be demonstrated using an urban water portfolio management test case. In the test case, a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley managing population and drought pressures must cost effectively maintain the reliability of its water supply by blending permanent rights to reservoir inflows with alternative strategies for purchasing water within the region's water market. The case study illustrates the significant potential pitfalls in the classic Cost-Reliability conception of the problem. Moreover, the proposed MORDM framework exploits recent advances in multiobjective search, visualization, and sensitivity analysis to better expose these pitfalls en route to identifying highly robust water planning alternatives.

  18. Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

    2009-01-01

    Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

  19. Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Regina; Shaffer, Steven; Stokes, James; Goldstein, David

    1987-01-01

    The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method.

  20. Integrating environmental monitoring with cumulative effects management and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F

    2018-05-01

    Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to

  1. Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliakbar Farhangi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

  2. SWOT data assimilation for operational reservoir management on the upper Niger River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munier, S.; Polebistki, A.; Brown, C.; Belaud, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-01-01

    The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will provide two-dimensional maps of water elevation for rivers with width greater than 100 m globally. We describe a modeling framework and an automatic control algorithm that prescribe optimal releases from the Selingue dam in the Upper Niger River Basin, with the objective of understanding how SWOT data might be used to the benefit of operational water management. The modeling framework was used in a twin experiment to simulate the "true" system state and an ensemble of corrupted model states. Virtual SWOT observations of reservoir and river levels were assimilated into the model with a repeat cycle of 21 days. The updated state was used to initialize a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm that computed the optimal reservoir release that meets a minimum flow requirement 300 km downstream of the dam. The data assimilation results indicate that the model updates had a positive effect on estimates of both water level and discharge. The "persistence," which describes the duration of the assimilation effect, was clearly improved (greater than 21 days) by integrating a smoother into the assimilation procedure. We compared performances of the MPC with SWOT data assimilation to an open-loop MPC simulation. Results show that the data assimilation resulted in substantial improvements in the performances of the Selingue dam management with a greater ability to meet environmental requirements (the number of days the target is missed falls to zero) and a minimum volume of water released from the dam.

  3. THE MANAGEMENT TOOLS USED IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela POPESCU

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The specificity of the different management tools and their diversification have represented the starting point for taking into consideration the process decision program chart and the activity network diagram. The analysis of these management tools gives the possibility of understanding the complexity of the management problems and their practical importance. At the same time, going in the intimacy of these instruments shows us the complex relations among components, activities, management matrices. That is why we resorted to the separate discussion of these tools in order to point out both the specific elements of these tools and the ways of putting these into practice.

  4. Marketing Decision Making and Decision Support: Challenges and Perspectives for Successful Marketing Management Support Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G.H. van Bruggen (Gerrit); B. Wierenga (Berend)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractMarketing management support systems (MMSS) are computer-enabled devices that help marketers to make better decisions. Marketing processes can be quite complex, involving large numbers of variables and mostly outcomes are the results of the actions of many different stakeholders (e.g.,

  5. Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Schwenk-Ferrero

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA framework for a comparative evaluation of nuclear waste management strategies taking into account different local perspectives (expert and stakeholder opinions. Of note, a novel approach is taken using a multiple-criteria formulation that is methodologically adapted to tackle various conflicting criteria and a large number of expert/stakeholder groups involved in the decision-making process. The purpose is to develop a framework and to show its application to qualitative comparison and ranking of options in a hypothetical case of three waste management alternatives: interim storage at and/or away from the reactor site for the next 100 years, interim decay storage followed in midterm by disposal in a national repository, and disposal in a multinational repository. Additionally, major aspects of a decision-making aid are identified and discussed in separate paper sections dedicated to application context, decision supporting process, in particular problem structuring, objective hierarchy, performance evaluation modeling, sensitivity/robustness analyses, and interpretation of results (practical impact. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the application of the MCDA framework developed to a generic hypothetical case and indicate how MCDA could support a decision on nuclear waste management policies in a “small” newcomer country embarking on nuclear technology in the future.

  6. Financial statements in the function of management decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrvaljević Mirjana

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper discuss on the role and importance of information which are provided by financial statements in business decision-making is considered. Basically, financial reports represent information basis for making economic / financial decisions for a wide range of users because they represent the key source of information about the financial position of a company at the end of a period, about the achieved results of the company for the period, about the cash flow within the company etc. In accordance with the process of globalisation, international frameworks have regulated the accounting standards which have been created and introduced in order to achieve transparency and uniformity of financial reports of any company, regardless its scope of work and the country where it does its business. The management of a company is aimed at the perception of future events and the flow of values within a company as a result of present decisions, while the accounting is ex post oriented. Nevertheless, the connections between accounting and management of a company are important and multiple because it is the effects of management decisions that are evaluated through financial statements, which are the product of company accounting in which all the business decisions are processed.

  7. Integrating Design Decision Management with Model-based Software Development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Könemann, Patrick

    Design decisions are continuously made during the development of software systems and are important artifacts for design documentation. Dedicated decision management systems are often used to capture such design knowledge. Most such systems are, however, separated from the design artifacts...... of the system. In model-based software development, where design models are used to develop a software system, outcomes of many design decisions have big impact on design models. The realization of design decisions is often manual and tedious work on design models. Moreover, keeping design models consistent......, or by ignoring the causes. This substitutes manual reviews to some extent. The concepts, implemented in a tool, have been validated with design patterns, refactorings, and domain level tests that comprise a replay of a real project. This proves the applicability of the solution to realistic examples...

  8. Implications of caries diagnostic strategies for clinical management decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baelum, Vibeke; Hintze, Hanne; Wenzel, Ann

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: In clinical practice, a visual-tactile caries examination is frequently supplemented by bitewing radiography. This study evaluated strategies for combining visual-tactile and radiographic caries detection methods and determined their implications for clinical management decisions...... that the visual-tactile method alone was the superior strategy, resulting in most correct clinical management decisions and most correct decisions regarding the choice of treatment.......-specificity) were calculated for each diagnostic strategy. RESULTS: Visual-tactile examination provided a true-positive rate of 34.2% and a false-positive rate of 1.5% for the detection of a cavity. The combination of a visual-tactile and a radiographic examination using the lesion in dentin threshold...

  9. Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

    2013-12-01

    Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

  10. Sport Management Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lumpkin, Angela; Franco, Dan; Multon, Karen; Achen, Rebecca M.

    2017-01-01

    Grounded in a social cognitive theoretical perspective, this study explores the career decision-making self-efficacy (CDSE) and vocational identity development process for college students interested or majoring in sport management. While a popular undergraduate major, little research has investigated the specific factors that influence different…

  11. Outsourced Investment Management: An Overview for Institutional Decision-Makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

    2013-01-01

    Outsourcing of investment management is a growing trend among institutional investors. With a broad range of institutions using or exploring the outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) model, portfolio size is no longer the determining factor driving the outsourcing decision. For all but the largest institutional investors--those with deep…

  12. A conceptual tool for improving rangeland management decision ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the LLM concept should be seen as a continuous and evolving learning process that will be updated over the long term through decision support to include several other components essential to implement effective and sustainable rangeland management practices by local land users. Keywords: desertification; indicators ...

  13. A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.E.

    1997-03-01

    A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

  14. Real time traffic models, decision support for traffic management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; de Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  15. Real Time Traffic Models, Decision Support for Traffic Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wismans, L.; De Romph, E.; Friso, K.; Zantema, K.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and accurate short-term traffic state prediction can improve the performance of real-time traffic management systems significantly. Using this short-time prediction based on current measurements delivered by advanced surveillance systems will support decision-making processes on various

  16. Decision-support tool for management of miombo woodlands: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model complexity is well adapted to the data quality and abundance, and it is dependent on proxies of some main drivers of the dynamic processes. The development of the matrix model is a step forward facilitating better decisions in the management of miombo woodlands. However, data ranges used for calibrating ...

  17. Information sources for decision making by senior managers in two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    It is also a critical resource that affects individual as well as organization. Senior managers shoulder the responsibility of formulating policies that organization needs for the smooth running of their individuals establishments. The quality of decision made is also dependent on how current the sources of information utilized to ...

  18. Multi-criteria decision making for water resource management: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, a water resource management model that facilitates indicator-based decisions, with respect to environmental, social and economic dimensions in a multiple criteria perspective, is developed for the Gediz River Basin in Turkey. The basic input of the proposed model is the quantity of surface water that is mainly ...

  19. XForms and XML Events to Support Decisions about Medication Management

    OpenAIRE

    Calabretto, Jean-Pierre; Banerjee, Debdeep; Warren, Jim; Bird, Linda

    2005-01-01

    Representation and presentation of information in healthcare is problematic, including issues related to common formats and accessibility. XML technology infrastructure (particularly XForms and XML events) appears promising in addressing some of these issues. These technologies were investigated in the context of decision support for medication management. XForms allows rapid prototyping of information models and interfaces. XML events are useful to model simple alerts altho...

  20. Design decisions in workflow management and quality of work.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waal, B.M.E. de; Batenburg, R.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, the design and implementation of a workflow management (WFM) system in a large Dutch social insurance organisation is described. The effect of workflow design decisions on the quality of work is explored theoretically and empirically, using the model of Zur Mühlen as a frame of

  1. The effect of scientific evidence on conservation practitioners' management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Jessica C; Dicks, Lynn V; Sutherland, William J

    2015-02-01

    A major justification of environmental management research is that it helps practitioners, yet previous studies show it is rarely used to inform their decisions. We tested whether conservation practitioners focusing on bird management were willing to use a synopsis of relevant scientific literature to inform their management decisions. This allowed us to examine whether the limited use of scientific information in management is due to a lack of access to the scientific literature or whether it is because practitioners are either not interested or unable to incorporate the research into their decisions. In on-line surveys, we asked 92 conservation managers, predominantly from Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, to provide opinions on 28 management techniques that could be applied to reduce predation on birds. We asked their opinions before and after giving them a summary of the literature about the interventions' effectiveness. We scored the overall effectiveness and certainty of evidence for each intervention through an expert elicitation process-the Delphi method. We used the effectiveness scores to assess the practitioners' level of understanding and awareness of the literature. On average, each survey participant changed their likelihood of using 45.7% of the interventions after reading the synopsis of the evidence. They were more likely to implement effective interventions and avoid ineffective actions, suggesting that their intended future management strategies may be more successful than current practice. More experienced practitioners were less likely to change their management practices than those with less experience, even though they were not more aware of the existing scientific information than less experienced practitioners. The practitioners' willingness to change their management choices when provided with summarized scientific evidence suggests that improved accessibility to scientific information would benefit conservation management

  2. Effects of rainfall patterns on water quality in a stratified reservoir subject to eutrophication: Implications for management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xuan; Huang, Tinglin; Ma, Weixing; Sun, Xin; Zhang, Haihan

    2015-07-15

    The seasonal variation of hydrological conditions caused by shifting rainfall patterns observed in recent years has significant effects on water quality. High-volume inflows following heavy rainfall events that significantly disturb stratification lead to increased dissolved oxygen (DO) at the bottom of the reservoir, inhibiting the release of nutrients from sediments and causing a rapid reduction of algal biomass in the reservoir. However, the duration and extent of these effects depend not only on the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events but also on the period of thermal stratification in the reservoir. The effects of heavy rainfall events on water quality during three typical stratification periods of the reservoir were systematically investigated using extensive field data. The continuous heavy rainfall that occurred in September 2011 (stratification began to diminish) completely mixed the reservoir and produced a high concentration of DO along with a low phytoplankton concentration throughout the reservoir until stratification occurred the following year. Conversely, several days were required for anoxic conditions (in the hypolimnion) and cyanobacterial blooms to reappear after the storm runoff that occurred during the stable period of stratification (August 2012). In addition, the heavy rainfall that occurred in May 2013 accelerated the formation of an anoxic zone at the bottom of the reservoir and promoted cyanobacterial blooms due to the high nutrient input and the increased water temperature after the storm runoff ended. Water-lifting aerators (WLAs) were employed in the Shibianyu Reservoir to inhibit algal growth and to control the release of nutrients. Based on our field observations and theoretical analyses, optimized management strategies are recommended to improve water quality in the reservoir under different rainfall patterns at a reduced cost. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact of climate changes on management plans for the St. Francois and Aylmer reservoirs : preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turcotte, R.; Fortin, L.G.; Pugin, S.; Cyr, J.F.; Picard, F.; Poirier, C.; Lacombe, P.

    2004-01-01

    Dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec are managed by the Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ). This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the changes that may occur in the hydrological regime within the next decades in response to predicted changes in climate. As a result of the changes in hydrological regime, there is a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ is conducting a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to develop a method to evaluate the adaptability of current management plans to climate change. The project is based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps are used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. CEHQ has developed a model that simulates the use of current management plans. The model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios can thereby be evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. 18 refs., 4 tabs., 12 figs

  4. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly progress report, June 13, 1996--September 12, 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-09-12

    At this time, eighteen (18) 10-acre infill wells have been drilled as part of the Field Demonstration phase of the project. Of the fourteen producing wells drilled to date, twelve are currently on production, and ten are pumped-off and producing at stable rates. Current Unit production is approximately 3,600-3,700 STBO/D, and approximately 850 STBO/D incremental production has been added to date. The remaining producing well and four injection wells are currently being completed. A change in the Statement of Work has been approved so that we can drill additional 10-acre infill wells during the next quarter as budget constraints allow. Production flowlines are laid for each new producing well as they are put on production. Injection lines are being laid for the injection wells as they are completed. All data required for the validation of the Budget Period I Reservoir Characterization, Reservoir Management, and Reservoir Simulation Studies are being acquired and analyzed during the Field Demonstration Period.

  5. Trade-off decisions in distribution utility management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slavickas, Rimas Anthony

    As a result of the "unbundling" of traditional monopolistic electricity generation and transmission enterprises into a free-market economy, power distribution utilities are faced with very difficult decisions pertaining to electricity supply options and quality of service to the customers. The management of distribution utilities has become increasingly complex, versatile, and dynamic to the extent that conventional, non-automated management tools are almost useless and obsolete. This thesis presents a novel and unified approach to managing electricity supply options and quality of service to customers. The technique formulates the problem in terms of variables, parameters, and constraints. An advanced Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) optimization formulation is developed together with novel, logical, decision-making algorithms. These tools enable the utility management to optimize various cost components and assess their time-trend impacts, taking into account the intangible issues such as customer perception, customer expectation, social pressures, and public response to service deterioration. The above concepts are further generalized and a Logical Proportion Analysis (LPA) methodology and associated software have been developed. Solutions using numbers are replaced with solutions using words (character strings) which more closely emulate the human decision-making process and advance the art of decision-making in the power utility environment. Using practical distribution utility operation data and customer surveys, the developments outlined in this thesis are successfully applied to several important utility management problems. These involve the evaluation of alternative electricity supply options, the impact of rate structures on utility business, and the decision of whether to continue to purchase from a main grid or generate locally (partially or totally) by building Non-Utility Generation (NUG).

  6. Reservoir fisheries of Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, S.S. De.

    1990-01-01

    At a workshop on reservoir fisheries research, papers were presented on the limnology of reservoirs, the changes that follow impoundment, fisheries management and modelling, and fish culture techniques. Separate abstracts have been prepared for three papers from this workshop

  7. THE IMPORTANCE OF BENCHMARKING IN MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana-Mihaela IONESCU

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Launching a new business or project leads managers to make decisions and choose strategies that will then apply in their company. Most often, they take decisions only on instinct, but there are also companies that use benchmarking studies. Benchmarking is a highly effective management tool and is useful in the new competitive environment that has emerged from the need of organizations to constantly improve their performance in order to be competitive. Using this benchmarking process, organizations try to find the best practices applied in a business, learn from famous leaders and identify ways to increase their performance and competitiveness. Thus, managers gather information about market trends and about competitors, especially about the leaders in the field, and use these information in finding ideas and setting of guidelines for development. Benchmarking studies are often used in businesses of commerce, real estate, and industry and high-tech software.

  8. Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management: A Decision Analytical Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

    2017-01-01

    The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary...... Management (SIM). Finally, the concept of Value of Information analysis (VoI) from the Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis is proposed, as an overarching methodical platform for the planning and optimization of structural Health Monitoring (SHM) activities in the context of SIM at both operational...

  9. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

    2014-01-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water...... Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental...

  10. Management and Decisions in the Structures of Human Activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Galanc

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article has been devoted to the key dimensions of decision-making. The main goal of the authors was to point out the role and effect of invariants of nature, logic and conceptual systems of science and management, which are extremely important in decision-making processes. The research hypothesis has been tested that the complexity of decision-making and management are determined by the state of reality (Nature. This hypothesis is related to the fact that in science there is currently no uniform methodology associated with decision-making, just as science is not methodologically uniform. One can even doubt whether it is possible to describe the essential dimensions of decisions undertaken by Man, as discussed in this article. These problems are not a novelty to science, since they have been analysed by many scientists in the past. The authors of the article present the complexity and diversity of concepts defining systems of decision-making and management, based on selected fields of knowledge which are generally relevant to this issue, in particular fields associated with ontology and epistemology. Therefore, the text refers broadly to investigating the reality of basic areas of human knowledge and the overlapping relationships between them. This applies to the so-called circle of the sciences proposed and examined by the psychologist J. Piaget. An additional aim of the authors was to create a text presenting contemporary human knowledge about the reality which surrounds us. To understand reality means to be in relative equilibrium with it. (original abstract

  11. An environmentally sustainable decision model for urban solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costi, P.; Minciardi, R.; Robba, M.; Rovatti, M.; Sacile, R.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present the structure and the application of a decision support system (DSS) designed to help decision makers of a municipality in the development of incineration, disposal, treatment and recycling integrated programs. Specifically, within a MSW management system, several treatment plants and facilities can generally be found: separators, plants for production of refuse derived fuel (RDF), incinerators with energy recovery, plants for treatment of organic material, and sanitary landfills. The main goal of the DSS is to plan the MSW management, defining the refuse flows that have to be sent to recycling or to different treatment or disposal plants, and suggesting the optimal number, the kinds, and the localization of the plants that have to be active. The DSS is based on a decision model that requires the solution of a constrained non-linear optimization problem, where some decision variables are binary and other ones are continuous. The objective function takes into account all possible economic costs, whereas constraints arise from technical, normative, and environmental issues. Specifically, pollution and impacts, induced by the overall solid waste management system, are considered through the formalization of constraints on incineration emissions and on negative effects produced by disposal or other particular treatments

  12. Online decision support system for surface irrigation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wenchao; Cui, Yuanlai

    2017-04-01

    Irrigation has played an important role in agricultural production. Irrigation decision support system is developed for irrigation water management, which can raise irrigation efficiency with few added engineering services. An online irrigation decision support system (OIDSS), in consist of in-field sensors and central computer system, is designed for surface irrigation management in large irrigation district. Many functions have acquired in OIDSS, such as data acquisition and detection, real-time irrigation forecast, water allocation decision and irrigation information management. The OIDSS contains four parts: Data acquisition terminals, Web server, Client browser and Communication system. Data acquisition terminals are designed to measure paddy water level, soil water content in dry land, ponds water level, underground water level, and canals water level. A web server is responsible for collecting meteorological data, weather forecast data, the real-time field data, and manager's feedback data. Water allocation decisions are made in the web server. Client browser is responsible for friendly displaying, interacting with managers, and collecting managers' irrigation intention. Communication system includes internet and the GPRS network used by monitoring stations. The OIDSS's model is based on water balance approach for both lowland paddy and upland crops. Considering basic database of different crops water demands in the whole growth stages and irrigation system engineering information, the OIDSS can make efficient decision of water allocation with the help of real-time field water detection and weather forecast. This system uses technical methods to reduce requirements of user's specialized knowledge and can also take user's managerial experience into account. As the system is developed by the Browser/Server model, it is possible to make full use of the internet resources, to facilitate users at any place where internet exists. The OIDSS has been applied in

  13. [Informatics competencies essential to decision making in nursing management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Rodrigo; Guedes, Erika de Souza; Leite, Maria Madalena Januário

    2016-02-01

    To identify informatics abilities essential to decision making in nursing management. Survey study with specialist nurses in health informatics and management. An electronic questionnaire was built based on the competencies Information Literacy (five categories; 40 abilities) and Information Management (nine categories; 69 abilities) of the TIGER - Technology Informatics Guiding Education Reform - initiative, with the guiding question: Which informatics abilities are essential to decision making in management? Answers were sorted in a Likert scale, ranging from 1 to 5. Rasch analysis was conducted with the software WINSTEPS(®). Results were presented in logits, with cutoff value zero. Thirty-two specialists participated, coming from all regions of Brazil. In the information literacy competency, 18 abilities were considered essential and in Information Management, 38; these were sorted according to their degree of essentiality. It is believed that the incorporation of these abilities in teaching can support the education of nurse managers and contribute to evidence-based practice, incorporation of information and communication technologies in health and information management.

  14. Ensuring robust decisions and deployable solutions in UK LLW management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) is responsible for the decommissioning and site restoration of civil nuclear liabilities in the UK. Our decommissioning programme will last over 100 years and generate approximately 3.8 million m3 of LLW, three quarters of which will be VLLW. As well as decommissioning sites, our estate includes operations, such as power generation at Wylfa and reprocessing and waste management at Sellafield. As a result we have a clear interest in effective and affordable management of low level waste. This is further enhanced by two important aspects: our role in developing and implementing strategy for the management of nuclear industry LLW in the UK and our ownership of the Low Level Waste Repository, a critical part of the UK's radioactive waste management infrastructure. Disposal capacity at LLWR is a precious resource; recognition of this fact has provided effective leverage to changing the way LLW is managed in the UK. In 2010 we published the UK Nuclear Industry LLW Strategy which comprised three main themes: the waste hierarchy; making the best use of existing LLW management assets; and, the need for new fit-for-purpose waste management routes. In order to preserve disposal capacity at LLWR we wanted to increase choice for organisations that manage LLW. Regulation of the LLW management has also had to keep pace with and enable this change. Increasing choice requires an increased focus on making robust, and not always easy, decisions. In the past, 'LLW' was simply consigned for disposal at LLWR, now LLW managers have to make decisions between clearance, exemption, reuse, recycling, incineration and disposal. Arguably, these decisions become more finely balanced at the lower end of the LLW spectrum. In the UK, a number of tools and sources of support are in place to help with this process, including: the National LLW Programme; good practice guidance (industry led) on assessing Best Available Techniques; and a

  15. Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driscoll, Don A; Bode, Michael; Bradstock, Ross A; Keith, David A; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

    2016-02-01

    Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management. © 2015

  16. Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick; Jakaboski, Blake Elaine; Normann, Randy Allen; Jennings, Jim (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Gilbert, Bob (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Weiss, Chester Joseph; Lorenz, John Clay; Elbring, Gregory Jay; Wheeler, Mary Fanett (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Thomas, Sunil G. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Rightley, Michael J.; Rodriguez, Adolfo (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Klie, Hector (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Banchs, Rafael (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Nunez, Emilio J. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Jablonowski, Chris (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX)

    2006-11-01

    The project objective was to detail better ways to assess and exploit intelligent oil and gas field information through improved modeling, sensor technology, and process control to increase ultimate recovery of domestic hydrocarbons. To meet this objective we investigated the use of permanent downhole sensors systems (Smart Wells) whose data is fed real-time into computational reservoir models that are integrated with optimized production control systems. The project utilized a three-pronged approach (1) a value of information analysis to address the economic advantages, (2) reservoir simulation modeling and control optimization to prove the capability, and (3) evaluation of new generation sensor packaging to survive the borehole environment for long periods of time. The Value of Information (VOI) decision tree method was developed and used to assess the economic advantage of using the proposed technology; the VOI demonstrated the increased subsurface resolution through additional sensor data. Our findings show that the VOI studies are a practical means of ascertaining the value associated with a technology, in this case application of sensors to production. The procedure acknowledges the uncertainty in predictions but nevertheless assigns monetary value to the predictions. The best aspect of the procedure is that it builds consensus within interdisciplinary teams The reservoir simulation and modeling aspect of the project was developed to show the capability of exploiting sensor information both for reservoir characterization and to optimize control of the production system. Our findings indicate history matching is improved as more information is added to the objective function, clearly indicating that sensor information can help in reducing the uncertainty associated with reservoir characterization. Additional findings and approaches used are described in detail within the report. The next generation sensors aspect of the project evaluated sensors and packaging

  17. Numerical simulation of groundwater movement and managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Hurricane Bench area, Washington County, Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

    2012-01-01

    The Hurricane Bench area of Washington County, Utah, is a 70 square-mile area extending south from the Virgin River and encompassing Sand Hollow basin. Sand Hollow Reservoir, located on Hurricane Bench, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as a managed aquifer recharge project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. The reservoir is situated on a thick sequence of the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. Total recharge to the underlying Navajo aquifer from the reservoir was about 86,000 acre-feet from 2002 to 2009. Natural recharge as infiltration of precipitation was approximately 2,100 acre-feet per year for the same period. Discharge occurs as seepage to the Virgin River, municipal and irrigation well withdrawals, and seepage to drains at the base of reservoir dams. Within the Hurricane Bench area, unconfined groundwater-flow conditions generally exist throughout the Navajo Sandstone. Navajo Sandstone hydraulic-conductivity values from regional aquifer testing range from 0.8 to 32 feet per day. The large variability in hydraulic conductivity is attributed to bedrock fractures that trend north-northeast across the study area.A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate groundwater movement in the Hurricane Bench area and to simulate the movement of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir through the groundwater system. The model was calibrated to combined steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1975. The transient-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1976 to 2009. Areally, the model grid was 98 rows by 76 columns with a variable cell size ranging from about 1.5 to 25 acres. Smaller cells were used to represent the reservoir to accurately simulate the reservoir bathymetry and nearby monitoring wells; larger

  18. Hospital managers' need for information in decision-making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kidholm, Kristian; Ølholm, Anne Mette; Birk-Olsen, Mette

    2015-01-01

    the results of an interview study with European hospital managers about their need for information when deciding about investments in new treatments. The study is part of the AdHopHTA project. Face-to-face, structured interviews were conducted with 53 hospital managers from nine European countries....... The hospital managers identified the clinical, economic, safety and organizational aspects of new treatments as being the most relevant for decision-making. With regard to economic aspects, the hospital managers typically had a narrower focus on budget impact and reimbursement. In addition to the information...... included in traditional HTAs, hospital managers sometimes needed information on the political and strategic aspects of new treatments, in particular the relationship between the treatment and the strategic goals of the hospital. If further studies are able to verify our results, guidelines for hospital...

  19. Impact of sediments resuspension on metal solubilization and water quality during recurrent reservoir sluicing management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frémion, Franck; Courtin-Nomade, Alexandra [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Bordas, François, E-mail: francois.bordas@unilim.fr [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Lenain, Jean-François [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France); Jugé, Philippe [CETU – ELMIS Ingénieries, Université François Rabelais, , 60 Rue du Plat d' Étain, 37000 Tours (France); Kestens, Tim [EDF – DPIH, Unité de Production Centre, 19 bis avenue de la Révolution, BP 406, 87012 Limoges Cedex (France); Mourier, Brice [Groupement de Recherche Eau Sol Environnement, Université de Limoges, 123 avenue Albert Thomas, 87060 Limoges Cedex (France)

    2016-08-15

    In dam contexts, sluicing operations can be performed to reestablish sediments continuity, as proposed by the EU Water Framework Directive, as well as to preserve the reservoirs' water storage capacity. Such management permits the rapid release of high quantities of reservoir sediments through the opening of dam bottom valves. This work aims to study the impact of such operation on the evolution of environmental physicochemical conditions notably changes in dissolved metallic elements concentrations (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn) through field and laboratory investigations. Results were interpreted in terms of concentrations and fluxes, and compared with data collected on an annual basis regarding both suspended matter and metallic elements. The release of high quantities of sediments (4,500 tons dry weight in 24 h), with concentrations representing up to 300 times the inter-annual mean suspended sediments discharge, significantly modified water parameters, notably solid/liquid (S/L) ratio, pH and redox conditions. Despite the fact that they are mainly trapped in stable phases, a clear increase of the solubilized metals content was measured, representing up to 60 times the maximum values of current exploitation. This solubilization is related to desorption phenomena from sediments through changes in chemical equilibriums as highlighted by laboratory characterizations and experiments. These chemical modifications are mainly attributed to S/L ratio variations. Indeed, the low S/L ratios (≤ 1.3 g·L{sup −1}) measured in situ are typically the ones for which metals solubilization is the highest, as shown by laboratory experiments. Additional thermodynamic modeling highlighted that the decrease in pH measured during the operation favors the release of the free forms of metallic elements (Al and Cu), and decreases the OM complexation influence. These changes, either in term of physical conditions or speciation, increasing metals long term

  20. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  1. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

    2013-01-01

    Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

  2. Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matteo Convertino

    Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

  3. Practical Application of Modern Forecasting and Decision Tools at an Operational River Management Agency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jawdy, C. M.; Carney, S.; Barber, N. M.; Balk, B. C.; Miller, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) recently completed a complete overhaul of our River Forecast System (RFS). This modernization effort encompassed: uplift or addition of 89 data feeds calibration of a 140 subbasin rainfall-runoff model calibration of over 650 miles of hydraulic routings implementation of a decision optimization routine for 29 reservoirs implementation of hydrothermal forecast models for five river-cooled thermal plants creation of decision-friendly displays creation of a user-friendly wiki creation of a robust reporting system This talk will walk attendees through how a 24x7 river and grid management agency made decisions around how to operationalize the latest technologies in hydrology, hydraulics, decision science and information technology. The tradeoffs inherent in such an endeavor will be discussed so that research-oriented attendees can understand how best to align their research if they desire adoption within industry. More industry-oriented attendees can learn about the mechanics of how to succeed at such a large and complex project. Following the description of the modernization project, I can discuss TVA's plans for future growth of the system. We plan to add the following capabilities in the coming years: forecast verification tools to communicate floodplain risk tools to choose the best possible model forcings ensemble inflow modelling a river policy that allows for more reasonable tradeoff of benefits river decisions based on ensembles The iterative staging of such improvements is highly fraught with technical, political and operational risks. I will discuss how TVA's is using what we learned in the RFS modernization effort to grow further into delivering on the promise of these additional technologies.

  4. Marketing Decision Making and Decision Support: Challenges and Perspectives for Successful Marketing Management Support Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Bruggen, Gerrit; Wierenga, Berend

    2009-01-01

    textabstractMarketing management support systems (MMSS) are computer-enabled devices that help marketers to make better decisions. Marketing processes can be quite complex, involving large numbers of variables and mostly outcomes are the results of the actions of many different stakeholders (e.g., the company itself, its customers, its competitors). Moreover, a large number of interdependencies exist between the relevant variables and the outcomes of marketing actions are subject to major unc...

  5. Radioactive Waste Management System: Draft Project Decision Schedule. Revision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-07-01

    The Nuclear Waste Policy Act (NWPA) of 1982 (Pub. L. 97-425) requires that the Secretary of Energy prepare, in cooperation with affected Federal agencies, a Project Decision Schedule that portrays the optimum way to attain the operation of geologic repositories. The Draft Project Decision Schedule portrays the major milestones of the Radioactive Waste Management System. It also depicts the set of activities for which Federal agencies have responsibility and the deadlines for taking the required action that are associated with the activities. The NWPA also requires that Federal agencies having determined that they: (1) cannot comply with a deadline for taking a required action; or (2) fail to comply with a deadline contained in the Project Decision Schedule; submit a comprehensive report to the Secretary of Energy and Congress to explain their failure or expected failure. The Secretary, in turn, is required to submit to Congress a response to the agency's report. 7 figs., 13 tabs

  6. Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

    2004-01-01

    Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into

  7. Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

    2002-01-01

    Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

  8. Knowledge-Based Information Management in Decision Support for Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith Reynolds; Micahel Saunders; Richard Olson; Daniel Schmoldt; Michael Foster; Donald Latham; Bruce Miller; John Steffenson; Lawrence Bednar; Patrick Cunningham

    1995-01-01

    The Pacific Northwest Research Station (USDA Forest Service) is developing a knowledge-based information management system to provide decision support for watershed analysis in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. The decision support system includes: (1) a GIS interface that allows users to graphically navigate to specific provinces and watersheds and display a...

  9. Using basic geographic information systems functionality to support sustainable forest management decision making and post-decision assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; R. James Barbour; Krista M. Gebert; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Dacia M. Meneguzzo; et al.

    2006-01-01

    Sustainable management of natural resources requires informed decision making and post-decision assessments of the results of those decisions. Increasingly, both activities rely on analyses of spatial data in the forms of maps and digital data layers. Fortunately, a variety of supporting maps and data layers rapidly are becoming available. Unfortunately, however, user-...

  10. System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shropshire, D.E.

    1997-01-01

    A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

  11. How customer relationship management influences making better decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Izadi Manesh

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Customers are the primary sources of making appropriate decisions and their feedbacks normally help us improve the quality of systems. In this paper, we present an empirical study to detect important factors influencing managers of banking industry make better decisions. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in Likert scale consists of 32 questions, distributes it among some bank managers. Cronbach alpha is calculated as 0.805. In addition, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy and Approx. Chi-Square are 0.701 and 1675, respectively. Based on the results of our survey, we have derived nine factors including customers’ welfare strategy, systems integration, organizational culture assessment, corporate strategies, organizational development, intelligence data strategies, supporting strategies, resource planning as well as research and development.

  12. Risk management in facility transition and management decision making: Needs and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stillwell, W.; Seaver, D.; Keller, J.; Smith, D.; Weaver, D.; Sanders, T.; Thullen, P.

    1993-02-01

    An overall approach to risk management is described in this paper. Many of these concepts have been developed and applied as part of Hanford Mission Planning (HMP) (Hanford Mission Plan, 1992). At Hanford, HMP provides a mechanism for integrating planning across all the missions and programs of the site. This paper discusses the decision context within which EM must make and defend decisions, the types of decisions that are being and will need to be made in order to progress with the cleanup of the DOE complex, and the resulting need for risk management. Risk management, in turn, requires quality health and ecological risk information to make these decisions. Other types of information are also needed, but the risk information is typically the most important and the most difficult to obtain. The paper then describes a general technical approach to risk management, including particular methods for developing the high quality of human health and ecological risk information that will be needed to support risk management. We next turn to several special issues that make risk management more complex than many other decisions. We discuss these issues and offer some practical suggestions with respect to addressing them in the risk management framework. Finally, we conclude with some discussion of other opportunities for applying risk management

  13. Knowledge of prenatal screening and psychological management of test decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Katja; Hvidman, Lone; Jørgensen, Finn Stener

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To study associations between pregnant women's knowledge of prenatal screening and decisional conflict in deciding whether to participate in first trimester screening for Down's syndrome in a setting of required informed consent and to study associations between knowledge and personal...... level of knowledge for the pregnant women making choices about participation in prenatal screening for Down's syndrome in order to improve psychological management of test decisions. Copyright © 2010 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  14. Decision Support Functions for the Retail Operations Management System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-09-01

    compatible microcomputer, that would deny the benefit of these decision support functions to the fleet for years. The ROM System enhancements were designed... denied access to the Stock Record Master Maintenance function (PF 1 on the ROM Master Menu). By pressing the ENTER key, the user will be returned to screen...message 222006Z NOV 93. 6. COMNAYSUPSYSCOM WASHINGTON DC. Retail Operations Management (ROM) Certification. Naval message 222146Z MAR 94. 7. Cosgrove

  15. The role of behavioral decision theory for cockpit information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, Jon E.

    1991-01-01

    The focus of this report is the consideration of one form of cognition, judgment and decision making, while examining some information management issues associated with the implementation of new forms of automation. As technology matures and more tasks become suitable to automation, human factors researchers will have to consider the effect that increasing automation will have on operator performance. Current technology allows flight deck designers the opportunity to automate activities involving substantially more cognitive processing.

  16. Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heilweil, Victor M.; Ortiz, Gema; Susong, David D.

    2009-01-01

    Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as an aquifer storage and recovery project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District (WCWCD). Since its inception in 2002 through 2007, surface-water diversions of about 126,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have resulted in a generally rising reservoir stage and surface area. Large volumes of runoff during spring 2005-06 allowed the WCWCD to fill the reservoir to a total storage capacity of more than 50,000 acre-feet, with a corresponding surface area of about 1,300 acres and reservoir stage of about 3,060 feet during 2006. During 2007, reservoir stage generally decreased to about 3,040 feet with a surface-water storage volume of about 30,000 acre-feet. Water temperature in the reservoir shows large seasonal variation and has ranged from about 3 to 30 deg C from 2003 through 2007. Except for anomalously high recharge rates during the first year when the vadose zone beneath the reservoir was becoming saturated, estimated ground-water recharge rates have ranged from 0.01 to 0.09 feet per day. Estimated recharge volumes have ranged from about 200 to 3,500 acre-feet per month from March 2002 through December 2007. Total ground-water recharge during the same period is estimated to have been about 69,000 acre-feet. Estimated evaporation rates have varied from 0.04 to 0.97 feet per month, resulting in evaporation losses of 20 to 1,200 acre-feet per month. Total evaporation from March 2002 through December 2007 is estimated to have been about 25,000 acre-feet. Results of water-quality sampling at monitoring wells indicate that by 2007, managed aquifer recharge had arrived at sites 37 and 36, located 60 and 160 feet from the reservoir, respectively. However, different peak arrival dates for specific conductance, chloride, chloride/bromide ratios, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved-gas pressures at each monitoring well indicate the complicated nature of

  17. Risk and uncertainty in the structure of management decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valeca, Serban Constantin

    2002-01-01

    The monograph is structured into five chapters addressing the following subject matters: 1 - The risk descriptor implied by the power systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 - Concepts and operators for describing the nuclear power risk; 1.2 - Risk approach in a holistic conception; 2 - Modelling the risk in the frame of re-engineering concept; 2.1 - Defining and interpreting the power re-engineering; 2.2 - Managerial re-engineering of power production systems; 3 - Informatics system of managing the power objectives with nuclear injection; 3.1 - Informatics systems for risk at the level of CANDU - 600 nuclear plant; 3.2. - Expert function structure applicable to the management of power objectives with nuclear injection; 4 - Assisting support in the operation of nuclear facilities; 4.1 - Assisting support system for nuclear plant operation; 4.2 - Program products for dedicated drivers; 5 - The management decision activities at the level of power systems with nuclear injection; 5.1 - Preliminaries in making power decision; 5.2 - Applications of decision models of sustainable power systems with nuclear injection; 5.3 - Re-engineering of power decision in the frame of maximal utility theory. The successful application of re-engineering concept is based on knowledge and managing capacity of design leadership and its ability of dealing the error generating sources. The main stages of implementing successfully the re-engineering are: - Replacing the pollution processes instead of adjusting measures; - Raising the designer responsibility by radical innovation of processes' architecture; - Re-designing the processes by basic changes at the level of the management functions and structures; - Raising the personnel professionalism by motivation as optimal way of improving the workers mentalities; - Accurate definition of objectives in the frame of re-engineering program; - Application of re-engineering in industrial units starting from the management level; - Selecting as general

  18. Multicriteria Decision Framework for Cybersecurity Risk Assessment and Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganin, Alexander A; Quach, Phuoc; Panwar, Mahesh; Collier, Zachary A; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Marchese, Dayton; Linkov, Igor

    2017-09-05

    Risk assessors and managers face many difficult challenges related to novel cyber systems. Among these challenges are the constantly changing nature of cyber systems caused by technical advances, their distribution across the physical, information, and sociocognitive domains, and the complex network structures often including thousands of nodes. Here, we review probabilistic and risk-based decision-making techniques applied to cyber systems and conclude that existing approaches typically do not address all components of the risk assessment triplet (threat, vulnerability, consequence) and lack the ability to integrate across multiple domains of cyber systems to provide guidance for enhancing cybersecurity. We present a decision-analysis-based approach that quantifies threat, vulnerability, and consequences through a set of criteria designed to assess the overall utility of cybersecurity management alternatives. The proposed framework bridges the gap between risk assessment and risk management, allowing an analyst to ensure a structured and transparent process of selecting risk management alternatives. The use of this technique is illustrated for a hypothetical, but realistic, case study exemplifying the process of evaluating and ranking five cybersecurity enhancement strategies. The approach presented does not necessarily eliminate biases and subjectivity necessary for selecting countermeasures, but provides justifiable methods for selecting risk management actions consistent with stakeholder and decisionmaker values and technical data. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the U.S.A.

  19. Contingency Management and deliberative decision-making processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Regier

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Contingency Management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of Contingency Management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that Contingency Management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by Contingency Management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

  20. Contingency Management and Deliberative Decision-Making Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regier, Paul S; Redish, A David

    2015-01-01

    Contingency management is an effective treatment for drug addiction. The current explanation for its success is rooted in alternative reinforcement theory. We suggest that alternative reinforcement theory is inadequate to explain the success of contingency management and produce a model based on demand curves that show how little the monetary rewards offered in this treatment would affect drug use. Instead, we offer an explanation of its success based on the concept that it accesses deliberative decision-making processes. We suggest that contingency management is effective because it offers a concrete and immediate alternative to using drugs, which engages deliberative processes, improves the ability of those deliberative processes to attend to non-drug options, and offsets more automatic action-selection systems. This theory makes explicit predictions that can be tested, suggests which users will be most helped by contingency management, and suggests improvements in its implementation.

  1. Development and Application of a Decision Support System for Water Management Investigations in the Upper Yakima River, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bovee, Ken D.; Waddle, Terry J.; Talbert, Colin; Hatten, James R.; Batt, Thomas R.

    2008-01-01

    The Yakima River Decision Support System (YRDSS) was designed to quantify and display the consequences of different water management scenarios for a variety of state variables in the upper Yakima River Basin, located in central Washington. The impetus for the YRDSS was the Yakima River Basin Water Storage Feasibility Study, which investigated alternatives for providing additional water in the basin for threatened and endangered fish, irrigated agriculture, and municipal water supply. The additional water supplies would be provided by combinations of water exchanges, pumping stations, and off-channel storage facilities, each of which could affect the operations of the Bureau of Reclamation's (BOR) five headwaters reservoirs in the basin. The driver for the YRDSS is RiverWare, a systems-operations model used by BOR to calculate reservoir storage, irrigation deliveries, and streamflow at downstream locations resulting from changes in water supply and reservoir operations. The YRDSS uses output from RiverWare to calculate and summarize changes at 5 important flood plain reaches in the basin to 14 state variables: (1) habitat availability for selected life stages of four salmonid species, (2) spawning-incubation habitat persistence, (3) potential redd scour, (4) maximum water temperatures, (5) outmigration for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) from headwaters reservoirs, (6) outmigration of salmon smolts from Cle Elum Reservoir, (7) frequency of beneficial overbank flooding, (8) frequency of damaging flood events, (9) total deliverable water supply, (10) total water supply deliverable to junior water rights holders, (11) end-of-year reservoir carryover, (12) potential fine sediment transport rates, (13) frequency of events capable of armor layer disruption, and (14) geomorphic work performed during each water year. Output of the YRDSS consists of a series of conditionally formatted scoring tables, wherein the changes to a state variable resulting from an operational

  2. On automatic data processing and well-test analysis in real-time reservoir management applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, Stig

    2011-06-15

    The use of pressure and rate sensors for continuous measurements in the oil and gas wells are becoming more common. This provides better and more measurements in real time that can be analyzed to optimize the extraction of oil and gas. An analysis which can provide valuable information on oil and gas production, is transient analysis. In transient analysis pressure build-up in a well when it closed in are analyzed and parameters that describe the flow of oil and gas in the reservoir is estimated. However, it is very time consuming to manage and analyze real-time data and the result is often that only a limited amount of the available data are analyzed. It is therefore desirable to have more effective methods to analyze real time data from oil and gas wells. Olsen automated transient analysis in order to extract the information of real-time data in an efficient and labor-saving manner. The analysis must be initialized with well and reservoir-specific data, but when this is done, the analysis is performed automatically each time the well is closed in. For each shut-in are parameters that describe the flow of oil and gas in the reservoir estimated. By repeated shut, it will then appear time series of estimated parameters. One of the goals of the automated transient analysis lights up is to detect any changes in these time series so that the focus of the engineers can aim on the analysis results that deviate from normal. As part of this work it was also necessary to develop automated data filters for noise removal and data compression. The filter is designed so that it continuously filters the data using methods that are optimized for use on the typical pressure and rate signals measured in the oil and gas wells. The thesis shows Olsen examples of the use of automated data filtering and automated transient analysis of both synthetic data and real data from a field in the North Sea. (AG)

  3. Design and development of bio-inspired framework for reservoir operation optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asvini, M. Sakthi; Amudha, T.

    2017-12-01

    Frameworks for optimal reservoir operation play an important role in the management of water resources and delivery of economic benefits. Effective utilization and conservation of water from reservoirs helps to manage water deficit periods. The main challenge in reservoir optimization is to design operating rules that can be used to inform real-time decisions on reservoir release. We develop a bio-inspired framework for the optimization of reservoir release to satisfy the diverse needs of various stakeholders. In this work, single-objective optimization and multiobjective optimization problems are formulated using an algorithm known as "strawberry optimization" and tested with actual reservoir data. Results indicate that well planned reservoir operations lead to efficient deployment of the reservoir water with the help of optimal release patterns.

  4. Artificial intelligence based decision support for trumpeter swan management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.

    2002-01-01

    The number of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) breeding in the Tri-State area where Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming come together has declined to just a few hundred pairs. However, these birds are part of the Rocky Mountain Population which additionally has over 3,500 birds breeding in Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and Yukon Territory. To a large degree, these birds seem to have abandoned traditional migratory pathways in the flyway. Waterfowl managers have been interested in decision support tools that would help them explore simulated management scenarios in their quest towards reaching population recovery and the reestablishment of traditional migratory pathways. I have developed a decision support system to assist biologists with such management, especially related to wetland ecology. Decision support systems use a combination of models, analytical techniques, and information retrieval to help develop and evaluate appropriate alternatives. Swan management is a domain that is ecologically complex, and this complexity is compounded by spatial and temporal issues. As such, swan management is an inherently distributed problem. Therefore, the ecological context for modeling swan movements in response to management actions was built as a multiagent system of interacting intelligent agents that implements a queuing model representing swan migration. These agents accessed ecological knowledge about swans, their habitats, and flyway management principles from three independent expert systems. The agents were autonomous, had some sensory capability, and could respond to changing conditions. A key problem when developing ecological decision support systems is empirically determining that the recommendations provided are valid. Because Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans have been surveyed for a long period of time, I was able to compare simulated distributions provided by the system with actual field observations across 20 areas for the period 1988

  5. Disaster Management with a Next Generation Disaster Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y.

    2015-12-01

    As populations become increasingly concentrated in large cities, the world is experiencing an inevitably growing trend towards the urbanisation of disasters. Scientists have contributed significant advances in understanding the geophysical causes of natural hazards and have developed sophisticated tools to predict their effects; while, much less attention has been devoted to tools that increase situational awareness, facilitate leadership, provide effective communication channels and data flow and enhance the cognitive abilities of decision makers and first responders. In this paper, we envisioned the capabilities of a next generation disaster decision support system and hence proposed a state-of-the-art system architecture design to facilitate the decision making process in natural catastrophes such as flood and bushfire by utilising a combination of technologies for multi-channel data aggregation, disaster modelling, visualisation and optimisation. Moreover, we put our thoughts into action by implementing an Intelligent Disaster Decision Support System (IDDSS). The developed system can easily plug in to external disaster models and aggregate large amount of heterogeneous data from government agencies, sensor networks, and crowd sourcing platforms in real-time to enhance the situational awareness of decision makers and offer them a comprehensive understanding of disaster impacts from diverse perspectives such as environment, infrastructure and economy, etc. Sponsored by the Australian Government and the Victorian Department of Justice (Australia), the system was built upon a series of open-source frameworks (see attached figure) with four key components: data management layer, model application layer, processing service layer and presentation layer. It has the potential to be adopted by a range of agencies across Australian jurisdictions to assist stakeholders in accessing, sharing and utilising available information in their management of disaster events.

  6. Evaluation/Optimization of reservoir operation rules for flood management using an integrated hydrologic-hydraulic framework

    OpenAIRE

    Sordo Ward, Alvaro; Bianucci, Sandra Paola; Pérez Díaz, Juan Ignacio; García Palacios, Jaime; Cuevas Velasquez, Victor; Garrote de Marcos, Luis

    2011-01-01

    Se ha presentado la evaluación y optimización de las reglas de operación de un embalse para gestión de avenidas usando un entorno integrado hidrológico- hidráulico de tipo Monte Carlo. Some reservoirs play a major role in flood protection, managing the floods and reducing or delaying the peak discharges in the river downstream. However, the changing environment (natural and anthropological changes) requires the development of more elaborated strategies for reservoir operation. Three factors a...

  7. Developing a decision support system to meet nurse managers' information needs for effective resource management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruland, C M

    2001-01-01

    This article describes the development of a decision support system called CLASSICA, which assists nurse managers in financial management, resource allocation, activity planning, and quality control. CLASSICA integrates information about patient flow and activity, staffing, and the cost of nursing care at the nursing-unit level. The system provides assistance in planning activities, balancing the budget, and identifying barriers to unsatisfactory resource management. In addition, CLASSICA contains forecasting and simulation options to analyze the influence of factors that affect nursing costs. This article describes the system's development process steps to tailor it to the needs of nurse managers and their existing work practices. Nurse managers actively participated in defining their tasks and responsibilities; identified barriers and difficulties in managing these tasks; defined information needs, data input, and output and interface requirements; and identified expected benefits. Clear communication of project goals, strong user involvement, and purposeful benefit planning was used to achieve the goals for CLASSICA: (1) to provide essential information and decision support for effective financial management, resource allocation, activity planning, and staffing; (2) to improve nurse managers' competence in financial management and decision making; (3) to improve cost containment; and (4) to provide a helpful and easy to use tool for decision support.

  8. How Does Knowing Snowpack Distribution Help Model Calibration and Reservoir Management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, C. B.; Mazurkiewicz, A.; McGurk, B. J.; Painter, T. H.

    2014-12-01

    Well calibrated hydrologic models are a necessary tool for reservoir managers to meet increasingly complicated regulatory, environmental and consumptive demands on water supply systems. Achieving these objectives is difficult during periods of drought, such as seen in the Sierra Nevada in recent years. This emphasizes the importance of accurate watershed modeling and forecasting of runoff. While basin discharge has traditionally been the main criteria for model calibration, many studies have shown it to be a poor control on model calibration where correct understanding of the subbasin hydrologic processes are required. Additional data sources such as snowpack accumulation and melt are often required to create a reliable model calibration. When allocating resources for monitoring snowpack conditions, water system managers often must choose between monitoring point locations at high temporal resolution (i.e. real time weather and snow monitoring stations) and large spatial surveys (i.e. remote sensing). NASA's Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) provides a unique opportunity to test the relative value of spatially dense, temporally sparse measurements vs. temporally dense, spatially sparse measurements for hydrologic model calibration. The ASO is a demonstration mission using coupled LiDAR and imaging spectrometer mounted to an aircraft flying at 6100 m to collect high spatial density measurements of snow water content and albedo over the 1189 km2 Tuolumne River Basin. Snow depth and albedo were collected weekly throughout the snowmelt runoff period at 5 m2 resolution during the 2013-2014 snowmelt. We developed an implementation of the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) for the Tuolumne River above Hetch Hetchy Reservoir, the primary water source for San Francisco. The modeled snow accumulation and ablation was calibrated in 2 models using either 2 years of weekly measurements of distributed snow water equivalent from the ASO, or 2 years of 15 minute snow

  9. Large reservoirs: Chapter 17

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Leandro E.; Bettoli, Phillip William

    2010-01-01

    Large impoundments, defined as those with surface area of 200 ha or greater, are relatively new aquatic ecosystems in the global landscape. They represent important economic and environmental resources that provide benefits such as flood control, hydropower generation, navigation, water supply, commercial and recreational fisheries, and various other recreational and esthetic values. Construction of large impoundments was initially driven by economic needs, and ecological consequences received little consideration. However, in recent decades environmental issues have come to the forefront. In the closing decades of the 20th century societal values began to shift, especially in the developed world. Society is no longer willing to accept environmental damage as an inevitable consequence of human development, and it is now recognized that continued environmental degradation is unsustainable. Consequently, construction of large reservoirs has virtually stopped in North America. Nevertheless, in other parts of the world construction of large reservoirs continues. The emergence of systematic reservoir management in the early 20th century was guided by concepts developed for natural lakes (Miranda 1996). However, we now recognize that reservoirs are different and that reservoirs are not independent aquatic systems inasmuch as they are connected to upstream rivers and streams, the downstream river, other reservoirs in the basin, and the watershed. Reservoir systems exhibit longitudinal patterns both within and among reservoirs. Reservoirs are typically arranged sequentially as elements of an interacting network, filter water collected throughout their watersheds, and form a mosaic of predictable patterns. Traditional approaches to fisheries management such as stocking, regulating harvest, and in-lake habitat management do not always produce desired effects in reservoirs. As a result, managers may expend resources with little benefit to either fish or fishing. Some locally

  10. Controlling Eutrophication in A Mediterranean Shallow Reservoir by Phosphorus Loading Reduction: The Need for an Integrated Management Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaragüeta, Mikel; Acebes, Pablo

    2017-04-01

    Increased nutrient enrichment in Mediterranean standing waters has enhanced the risk of being affected by cyanobacterial blooms. Because phosphorus abatement is shaped as a crucial strategy for controlling eutrophication, this study introduces a structural thinking, experiential learning laboratory with animation dynamic model elaborated for Cazalegas Reservoir (Spain) to assess the feasibility of implementing a set of internal and external control measures and hydromorphological adjustments to meet the goal of oligotrophication. This shallow reservoir is another case where recurrent eutrophication has led to reach annual mean total phosphorus concentrations (0.16 ± 0.08 mg total phosphorus/L) over the threshold of current water policies, triggering cyanobacterial growth up to undesirable levels in summer time (approximately 50,000 cells/mL). Modeling results showed that (i) after upgrading water treatment in the main tributary, (ii) applying a lanthanum-modified bentonite into the water column and sediment, and (iii) increasing reservoir water level, in-lake P concentrations and cyanobacterial abundance decreased in an 88% (below 0.01 mg total phosphorus/L) and 84% (below 6000 cells/mL), respectively in the most critical periods. However, the constraints of the proposed management strategies are associated with their costs of implementation and the time span for a stable trophic recovery of the reservoir. In that end, integrated management approaches are aimed to be adopted by water managers to reach adequate ecological status of freshwater bodies.

  11. Controlling Eutrophication in A Mediterranean Shallow Reservoir by Phosphorus Loading Reduction: The Need for an Integrated Management Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaragüeta, Mikel; Acebes, Pablo

    2017-04-01

    Increased nutrient enrichment in Mediterranean standing waters has enhanced the risk of being affected by cyanobacterial blooms. Because phosphorus abatement is shaped as a crucial strategy for controlling eutrophication, this study introduces a structural thinking, experiential learning laboratory with animation dynamic model elaborated for Cazalegas Reservoir (Spain) to assess the feasibility of implementing a set of internal and external control measures and hydromorphological adjustments to meet the goal of oligotrophication. This shallow reservoir is another case where recurrent eutrophication has led to reach annual mean total phosphorus concentrations (0.16 ± 0.08 mg total phosphorus/L) over the threshold of current water policies, triggering cyanobacterial growth up to undesirable levels in summer time (approximately 50,000 cells/mL). Modeling results showed that (i) after upgrading water treatment in the main tributary, (ii) applying a lanthanum-modified bentonite into the water column and sediment, and (iii) increasing reservoir water level, in-lake P concentrations and cyanobacterial abundance decreased in an 88% (below 0.01 mg total phosphorus/L) and 84% (below 6000 cells/mL), respectively in the most critical periods. However, the constraints of the proposed management strategies are associated with their costs of implementation and the time span for a stable trophic recovery of the reservoir. In that end, integrated management approaches are aimed to be adopted by water managers to reach adequate ecological status of freshwater bodies.

  12. The Use of a Business Game to Improve Decision-Making Process in Management

    OpenAIRE

    Silva, Paulino; Mello, Ricardo; Mello, Fabiane

    2016-01-01

    In competitive business environments as the ones we live today, it is even more important for a manager to make better decisions. The classical model of decision making assumes managers have access to all the information needed to reach a decision. So, managers can make their decisions by ranking their preferences among existing alternatives. Unfortunately, it is very common that managers do not have access to all needed information to decide. Incomplete information leads to a high risk in th...

  13. DT-Planner: an environment for managing dynamic decision problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magni, P; Bellazzi, R

    1997-11-01

    The problem of formulating plans under uncertainty and coping with dynamic decision problems is a major task of both artificial intelligence and control theory applications in medicine. In this paper we will describe a software package, called DT-Planner, designed to represent and solve dynamic decision problems that can be modelled as Markov decision processes, by exploiting a novel graphical formalism, called influence view. An influence view is a directed acyclic graph that depicts the probabilistic relationships between the problem state variables in a generic time transition; additional variables, called event variables, may be added, in order to describe the conditional independencies between state variables. By using the specified conditional independence structure, an influence view may allow a parsimonious specification of a Markov decision process. DT-Planner lets the user specify and manage models through a user-friendly graphical interface, and implements efficient for policy determination algorithms. DT-Planner is written in C with Open Interface libraries and can be obtained, for non commercial use, via anonymous ftp without charge.

  14. Managing health care decisions and improvement through simulation modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsberg, Helena Hvitfeldt; Aronsson, Håkan; Keller, Christina; Lindblad, Staffan

    2011-01-01

    Simulation modeling is a way to test changes in a computerized environment to give ideas for improvements before implementation. This article reviews research literature on simulation modeling as support for health care decision making. The aim is to investigate the experience and potential value of such decision support and quality of articles retrieved. A literature search was conducted, and the selection criteria yielded 59 articles derived from diverse applications and methods. Most met the stated research-quality criteria. This review identified how simulation can facilitate decision making and that it may induce learning. Furthermore, simulation offers immediate feedback about proposed changes, allows analysis of scenarios, and promotes communication on building a shared system view and understanding of how a complex system works. However, only 14 of the 59 articles reported on implementation experiences, including how decision making was supported. On the basis of these articles, we proposed steps essential for the success of simulation projects, not just in the computer, but also in clinical reality. We also presented a novel concept combining simulation modeling with the established plan-do-study-act cycle for improvement. Future scientific inquiries concerning implementation, impact, and the value for health care management are needed to realize the full potential of simulation modeling.

  15. Navigating Sustainability Embeddedness in Management Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Le Roux

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Sustainability is an essential theme for business. In order to compete, strategies need to be improvised and efficient and effective decisions need to be made for improved sustainability performance. Despite management’s apparent knowledge of this, it appears that challenges persist with sustainability’s embeddedness in decision-making and its implementation in practice. In this study we propose a metaphor applying an integrative view of sustainability as support for management. We offer six antecedents of sustainability embeddedness in decision-making that contribute to building and confirming theory, and also provide a better understanding of current practice around sustainability embeddedness so that strategies can be developed for improved sustainability performance. Employees on all management levels in a stock exchange listed company provided rich empirical data for the study. Through the analysis of data in a case study, antecedents were inductively identified, conceptualized, and presented as using descriptive labels, namely: A True North Destination—a vision of sustainability embeddedness; Mountains—three obstacles; Fog—confusion and complexity; Myopia—shortsightedness; Navigation Necessities—requirements for the journey; and finally, the Chosen Team—selected stakeholders. Sustainability embeddedness was found to be dependent on leadership, the strategy message and structures, performance measures, and policies that support a unified culture for sustainability embeddedness.

  16. Evaluation of Management of Water Release for Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana, 1984 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lere, Mark E. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Missoula, MT)

    1984-11-01

    control section and 82.3mm in the dewatered section. Population estimates conducted in the Spring, 1984 indicated densities of mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) greater than 254 mm in total length were not significantly different between the control and dewatered sections (p > 0.20). Young of the year rainbow trout and brown trout per 10m of river edge electrofished during 1984 were more abundant in the control section than the dewatered section and were more abundant in side channel habitat than main channel habitat. Minimum flow recommendations obtained from wetted perimeter-discharge relationships averaged 8.5m{sup 3}/sec in the control section and 10.6m{sup 3}/sec in the dewatered section of the Bitterroot River. The quantity of supplemental water from Painted Rocks Reservoir needed to maintain minimum flow recommendations is discussed in the Draft Water Management Plan for the Proposed Purchase of Supplemental Water from Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana (Lere 1984).

  17. Development of the decision make supporting system on incident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasamatsu, Mizuki; Hanada, Satoshi; Noda, Eisuke

    2017-01-01

    Decision Make Supporting System is designed to support appropriate decision made by top management in the nuclear severe conditions. With crisis response in nuclear power plant (NPP), information entanglement between sites and control centers during intense situations interfere with prompt and accurate decision making. This research started with that kind of background. In order to solve the issue of the information entanglement, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Inc. (MHI) carried out the development of the Decision Make Supporting System and the system applies the technology combining the human factors engineering (HFE) and information and communication technology (ICT). During the crisis response, various commands, reactions and communications in a human system need to be managed. Therefore, the combined HFE method including detailed task analysis, user experience (UX), graphic user interface (GUI) and related human-system interface (HSI) design method is applied to the design of the system. These design results systematize the functions that prevent interference with decision-making in the headquarters for incident management. This new solution as a system enhances the safety improvement of the NPP and contributes to develop the skills and abilities of the resources in the NPP. The system has three key features for supporting emergency situations: 'understanding the situation', 'planning the next action', and 'managing resources'. The system helps commanders and responders to grasp the whole situation and allows them to share information in real time to get a whole picture, and the system accumulates the data of the past events in the chronological order to understand correctly how they happened and plan the next action by using a knowledge database that MHI has been developed. If the unexpected event happens which are not in the incident scenario, the system provides support to formulate alternative strategies and measures. With this

  18. Bring Your Own Device and Nurse Managers' Decision Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Karen; Borycki, Elizabeth; Courtney, Karen L

    2017-02-01

    The Bring Your Own Device phenomenon is important in the healthcare environment because this trend is changing the workplace in healthcare organizations, such as British Columbia. At present, there is little research that exists in Canada to provide a distinct understanding of the complexities and difficulties unique to this phenomenon within the nursing practice. This study focused on the experiences and perceptions of nurse managers regarding how they make decisions on the use of personal handheld devices in the workplace. Telephone interviews (N = 10) and qualitative descriptive analysis were used. Four major themes emerged: (1) management perspective, (2) opportunities, (3) disadvantages, and (4) solutions. Nurse managers and other executives in healthcare organizations and health information technology departments need to be aware of the practice and organizational implications of the Bring Your Own Device movement.

  19. Conceptualization of a Collaborative Decision Making for Flood Disaster Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nur Aishah Zubir, Siti; Thiruchelvam, Sivadass; Nasharuddin Mustapha, Kamal; Che Muda, Zakaria; Ghazali, Azrul; Hakimie, Hazlinda; Razak, Normy Norfiza Abdul; Aziz Mat Isa, Abdul; Hasini, Hasril; Sahari, Khairul Salleh Mohamed; Mat Husin, Norhayati; Ezanee Rusli, Mohd; Sabri Muda, Rahsidi; Mohd Sidek, Lariyah; Basri, Hidayah; Tukiman, Izawati

    2016-03-01

    Flooding is the utmost major natural hazard in Malaysia in terms of populations affected, frequency, area extent, flood duration and social economic damage. The recent flood devastation towards the end of 2014 witnessed almost 250,000 people being displaced from eight states in Peninsular Malaysia. The affected victims required evacuation within a short period of time to the designated evacuation centres. An effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life-saving. Effective flood disaster management requires collective and cooperative emergency teamwork from various government agencies. Intergovernmental collaborations among government agencies at different levels have become part of flood disaster management due to the need for sharing resources and coordinating efforts. Collaborative decision making during disaster is an integral element in providing prompt and effective response for evacuating the victims.

  20. Water resources review: Wheeler Reservoir, 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallus, R.; Cox, J.P.

    1990-09-01

    Protection and enhancement of water quality is essential for attaining the full complement of beneficial uses of TVA reservoirs. The responsibility for improving and protecting TVA reservoir water quality is shared by various federal, state, and local agencies, as well as the thousands of corporations and property owners whose individual decisions affect water quality. TVA's role in this shared responsibility includes collecting and evaluating water resources data, disseminating water resources information, and acting as a catalyst to bring together agencies and individuals that have a responsibility or vested interest in correcting problems that have been identified. This report is one in a series of status reports that will be prepared for each of TVA's reservoirs. The purpose of this status report is to provide an up-to-date overview of the characteristics and conditions of Wheeler Reservoir, including: reservoir purposes and operation; physical characteristics of the reservoir and the watershed; water quality conditions: aquatic biological conditions: designated, actual, and potential uses of the reservoir and impairments of those uses; ongoing or planned reservoir management activities. Information and data presented here are form the most recent reports, publications, and original data available. 21 refs., 8 figs., 29 tabs.

  1. [Decision support system for watershed management: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Yu; Yan, Jing

    2012-07-01

    Watershed management decision support system (DSS) is an intellectual system developed for the optimal allocation of water resources by watershed managers, and the simulation results of the system can directly affect the scientificity and practicability of watershed management. This paper summarized the related researches from the aspects of water quantity simulation and deployment systems, water quality monitoring and evaluation systems, and integrated watershed management systems. The main features and problems in existing DSS were analyzed, and the model structure and development status of the representative systems such as AQUA-Tool, Elbe-DSS, and HD were introduced. It was suggested that the accuracy and stability of simulated results, the succinctness of working process, and the high degree of user visualization would be the focuses in developing the DSS in the future, and the optimization of program-selecting models and 3D visualization tools, the research and development of inter-basin integrated management DSS, and the improvement of stakeholder participation would be the development trend for the future watershed management DSS.

  2. Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations: Lessons Learned from a Multi-Agency Collaborative Research and Operations Effort to improve Flood Risk Management, Water Supply and Environmental Benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talbot, C. A.; Ralph, M.; Jasperse, J.; Forbis, J.

    2017-12-01

    Lessons learned from the multi-agency Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) effort demonstrate how research and observations can inform operations and policy decisions at Federal, State and Local water management agencies with the collaborative engagement and support of researchers, engineers, operators and stakeholders. The FIRO steering committee consists of scientists, engineers and operators from research and operational elements of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the US Army Corps of Engineers, researchers from the US Geological Survey and the US Bureau of Reclamation, the state climatologist from the California Department of Water Resources, the chief engineer from the Sonoma County Water Agency, and the director of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography's Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at the University of California-San Diego. The FIRO framework also provides a means of testing and demonstrating the benefits of next-generation water cycle observations, understanding and models in water resources operations.

  3. ENERGY AWARE NETWORK: BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS BASED DECISION MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Kumar Chaudhari

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A Network Management System (NMS plays a very important role in managing an ever-evolving telecommunication network. Generally an NMS monitors & maintains the health of network elements. The growing size of the network warrants extra functionalities from the NMS. An NMS provides all kinds of information about networks which can be used for other purposes apart from monitoring & maintaining networks like improving QoS & saving energy in the network. In this paper, we add another dimension to NMS services, namely, making an NMS energy aware. We propose a Decision Management System (DMS framework which uses a machine learning technique called Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN, to make the NMS energy aware. The DMS is capable of analysing and making control decisions based on network traffic. We factor in the cost of rerouting and power saving per port. Simulations are performed on standard network topologies, namely, ARPANet and IndiaNet. It is found that ~2.5-6.5% power can be saved.

  4. Enterprise identity management towards an investment decision support approach

    CERN Document Server

    Royer, Denis

    2013-01-01

    ?The introduction of Enterprise Identity Management Systems (EIdMS) in organizations even beyond the purely technological level is a costly and challenging endeavor. However, for decision makers it seems difficult to fully understand the impacts and opportunities arising from the introduction of EIdMS. This book explores the relevant aspects for an ex-ante evaluation of EIdMS. Therefore it examines this domain by employing a qualitative expert interview study to better understand the nature of EIdMS, as they are situated between security and productive IT systems. To this regard, the focus is

  5. Decision support program for congestion management using demand side flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esmat, Ayman; Pinson, Pierre; Usaola, Julio

    2017-01-01

    In the past decades, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) have been mitigating distribution networks (DNs) contingencies by opting to grid reinforcements. However, this approach is not always cost and time efficient. Demand Side Flexibility (DSF) is one of the recent alternatives used in DNs...... congestion management. Consequently, new market players such as aggregators are needed to handle DSF transaction between customers and DSOs. This paper proposes and models a decision support program (DSP) to optimize the total cost charged by the DSO for using DSF services. Moreover, the energy rebound...

  6. Robust Energy Hub Management Using Information Gap Decision Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Javadi, Mohammad Sadegh; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a robust optimization framework for energy hub management. It is well known that the operation of energy systems can be negatively affected by uncertain parameters, such as stochastic load demand or generation. In this regard, it is of high significance to propose efficient...... tools in order to deal with uncertainties and to provide reliable operating conditions. On a broader scale, an energy hub includes diverse energy sources for supplying both electrical load and heating/cooling demands with stochastic behaviors. Therefore, this paper utilizes the Information Decision Gap...

  7. Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drillings. Annual technical progress report, June 13, 1996 to June 12, 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nevans, Jerry W.; Blasingame, Tom; Doublet, Louis; Kelkar, Mohan; Freeman, George; Callard, Jeff; Moore, David; Davies, David; Vessell, Richard; Pregger, Brian; Dixon, Bill

    1999-04-27

    Infill drilling of wells on a uniform spacing, without regard to reservoir performance and characterization, does not optimize reservoir development because it fails to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. New and emerging technologies, such as geostatistical modeling, rigorous decline curve analysis, reservoir rock typing, and special core analysis can be used to develop a 3-D simulation model for prediction of infill locations. Other technologies, such as inter-well injection tracers and magnetic flow conditioners, can also aid in the efficient evaluation and operation of both injection and producing wells. The purpose of this project was to demonstrate useful and cost effective methods of exploitation of the shallow shelf carbonate reservoirs of the Permian Basin located in West Texas.

  8. Delft-FEWS:A Decision Making Platform to Intergrate Data, Model, Algorithm for Large-Scale River Basin Water Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T.; Welles, E.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we introduce a flood forecasting and decision making platform, named Delft-FEWS, which has been developed over years at the Delft Hydraulics and now at Deltares. The philosophy of Delft-FEWS is to provide water managers and operators with an open shell tool, which allows the integratation of a variety of hydrological, hydraulics, river routing, and reservoir models with hydrometerological forecasts data. Delft-FEWS serves as an powerful tool for both basin-scale and national-scale water resources management. The essential novelty of Delft-FEWS is to change the flood forecasting and water resources management from a single model or agency centric paradigm to a intergrated framework, in which different model, data, algorithm and stakeholders are strongly linked together. The paper will start with the challenges in water resources managment, and the concept and philosophy of Delft-FEWS. Then, the details of data handling and linkages of Delft-FEWS with different hydrological, hydraulic, and reservoir models, etc. Last, several cases studies and applications of Delft-FEWS will be demonstrated, including the National Weather Service and the Bonneville Power Administration in USA, and a national application in the water board in the Netherland.

  9. Applications of a simulation model to decisions in mallard management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowardin, L.M.; Johnson, D.H.; Shaffer, T.L.; Sparling, D.W.

    1988-01-01

    A system comprising simulation models and data bases for habitat availability and nest success rates was used to predict results from a mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) management plan and to compare six management methods with a control. Individual treatments in the applications included land purchase for waterfowl production, wetland easement purchase, lease of uplands for waterfowl management, cropland retirement, use of no-till winter wheat, delayed cutting of alfalfa, installation of nest baskets, nesting island construction, and use of predator-resistant fencing.The simulations predicted that implementation of the management plan would increase recruits by 24%. Nest baskets were the most effective treatment, accounting for 20.4% of the recruits. No-till winter wheat was the second most effective, accounting for 5.9% of the recruits. Wetland loss due to drainage would cause an 11% loss of breeding population in 10 years.The models were modified to account for migrational homing. The modification indicated that migrational homing would enhance the effects of management. Nest success rates were critical contributions to individual management methods. The most effective treatments, such as nest baskets, had high success rates and affected a large portion of the breeding population.Economic analyses indicated that nest baskets would be the most economical of the three techniques tested. The applications indicated that the system is a useful tool to aid management decisions, but data are scarce for several important variables. Basic research will be required to adequately model the effect of migrational homing and density dependence on production. The comprehensive nature of predictions desired by managers will also require that production models like the one described here be extended to encompass the entire annual cycle of waterfowl.

  10. Measuring Children's Decision-Making Involvement Regarding Chronic Illness Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Diana

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To develop a measure of decision-making involvement in children and adolescents with cystic fibrosis, diabetes, and asthma. Methods Parent–child dyads completed the Decision-Making Involvement Scale (DMIS) and measures of locus of control and family communication. DMIS items were subjected to exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Temporal stability and construct validity were assessed. Results The parent form was reduced to 20 items representing five factors. CFA showed that the five factors were an acceptable fit to the parent- and child-report data. Internal consistency values ranged from 0.71 to 0.91. Temporal stability was supported by moderate–substantial intraclass correlation coefficients. DMIS subscales were associated with child age, child locus of control, and family communication. Conclusions The DMIS can be used to inform our understanding of the transition to greater independence for illness management. Additional research is needed to examine outcomes of decision-making involvement, including treatment adherence and responsibility. PMID:22138318

  11. Integrating geographically isolated wetlands into land management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Heather E.; Creed, Irena F.; Ali, Genevieve; Basu, Nandita; Neff, Brian; Rains, Mark C.; McLaughlin, Daniel L.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Ameli, Ali A.; Christensen, Jay R.; Evenson, Grey R.; Jones, Charles N.; Lane, Charles R.; Lang, Megan

    2017-01-01

    Wetlands across the globe provide extensive ecosystem services. However, many wetlands – especially those surrounded by uplands, often referred to as geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs) – remain poorly protected. Protection and restoration of wetlands frequently requires information on their hydrologic connectivity to other surface waters, and their cumulative watershed‐scale effects. The integration of measurements and models can supply this information. However, the types of measurements and models that should be integrated are dependent on management questions and information compatibility. We summarize the importance of GIWs in watersheds and discuss what wetland connectivity means in both science and management contexts. We then describe the latest tools available to quantify GIW connectivity and explore crucial next steps to enhancing and integrating such tools. These advancements will ensure that appropriate tools are used in GIW decision making and maintaining the important ecosystem services that these wetlands support.

  12. Clinical Decision Support Knowledge Management: Strategies for Success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalifa, Mohamed; Alswailem, Osama

    2015-01-01

    Clinical Decision Support Systems have been shown to increase quality of care, patient safety, improve adherence to guidelines for prevention and treatment, and avoid medication errors. Such systems depend mainly on two types of content; the clinical information related to patients and the medical knowledge related to the specialty that informs the system rules and alerts. At King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, Saudi Arabia, the Health Information Technology Affairs worked on identifying best strategies and recommendations for successful CDSS knowledge management. A review of literature was conducted to identify main areas of challenges and factors of success. A qualitative survey was used over six months' duration to collect opinions, experiences and suggestions from both IT and healthcare professionals. Recommendations were categorized into ten main topics that should be addressed during the development and implementation of CDSS knowledge management tools in the hospital.

  13. Optical Coherence Tomography-Guided Decisions in Retinoblastoma Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soliman, Sameh E; VandenHoven, Cynthia; MacKeen, Leslie D; Héon, Elise; Gallie, Brenda L

    2017-06-01

    Assess the role of handheld optical coherence tomography (OCT) in guiding management decisions during diagnosis, treatment, and follow-up of eyes affected by retinoblastoma. Retrospective, noncomparative, single-institution case series. All children newly diagnosed with retinoblastoma from January 2011 to December 2015 who had an OCT session during their active treatment at The Hospital for Sick Children (SickKids) in Toronto, Canada. The OCT sessions for fellow eyes of unilateral retinoblastoma without any suspicious lesion and those performed more than 6 months after the last treatment were excluded. Data collected included age at presentation, sex, family history, RB1 mutation status, 8th edition TNMH cancer staging and International Intraocular Retinoblastoma Classification (IIRC), and number of OCT sessions per eye. Details of each session were scored for indication-related details (informative or not) and assessed for guidance (directive or not), diagnosis (staging changed, new tumors found or excluded), treatment (modified, stopped, or modality shifted), or follow-up modified. Frequency of OCT-guided management decisions, stratified by indication and type of guidance (confirmatory vs. influential). Sixty-three eyes of 44 children had 339 OCT sessions over the course of clinical management (median number of OCT scans per eye, 5; range, 1-15). The age at presentation and presence of a heritable RB1 mutation significantly correlated with an increased number of OCT sessions. Indications included evaluation of post-treatment scar (55%) or fovea (16%), and posterior pole scanning for new tumors (11%). Of all sessions, 92% (312/339) were informative; 19 of 27 noninformative sessions had large, elevated lesions; of these, 14 of 19 were T2a or T2b (IIRC group C or D) eyes. In 94% (293/312) of the informative sessions, OCT directed treatment decisions (58%), diagnosis (16%), and follow-up (26%). Optical coherence tomography influenced and changed management from pre

  14. Multiunit water resource systems management by decomposition, optimization and emulated evolution : a case study of seven water supply reservoirs in Tunisia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Milutin, D.

    1998-01-01

    Being one of the essential elements of almost any water resource system, reservoirs are indispensable in our struggle to harness, utilize and manage natural water resources. Consequently, the derivation of appropriate reservoir operating strategies draws significant attention in water

  15. Knowledge Management Portal: A Simplified Model to Help Decision Makers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, I.; Hernandes Tabares, R.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present a simplified model that could help the nuclear industry to keep the expertise of safeguards professionals in touch with the state of the art, and also to have available information in the Portal of Knowledge Management. It can also provide indicators and general data for decision makers. Authors have developed the concept based on their own experience through systems running in hydroelectric and gas fired plants, and one exclusive system that manage all courses in one University. It is under development a Portal of Knowledge Management for NPP dealing with information obtained of Strategic Plans, Budgets and Economics, Operation Performance, Maintenance and Surveillance Plans, Training and Education Programs, QA Programs, Operational Experience, Safety Culture, and Engineering of Human Factors. This model will provide indicators for decision makers. Training and education module is prepared according to profile of each individual and his attributes, tasks and capabilities, and training and education programmes. The system could apply self-assessment questionnaires; immersive learning using media (video) classes, and test applications using questions randomly selected from data bank, as well as could make applications to certificate people. All these data are analyzed and generate indicators about strongest and weakness points. Managers could have indication of individual's deficiency even though in training programmes on a real time basis. Another tool that could be applied to the model is the remote operation of supervision equipment. The model is developed using web-based tools, like ASP.NET encrypted by 128 bits, and web site https. Finally, it is important to stress that the model can be customized according to industry preference. (author)

  16. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS BASED ON QUALITATIVE METHODS FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Николаевич ГУЦА

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available State-of-the-art decision support systems (DSS used in project management are mainly based on quantitative methods. However, formal methods of modern mathematics alone are not capable of being a universal means of solving all practical problems in this area. Due to their limited capabilities and lack of statistical and other relevant information, economic-mathematical methods find limited application in management and marketing. In addition, there are few reliable validation and verification methods available. On the other hand, expert assessment methods are free of these disadvantages and are almost the only way to solve this type of problem. Advantages of this approach include simplicity of prediction in nearly every case and excellent performance in incomplete information scenarios. This work presents a new information technology which generates a DSS, based on qualitative methods of verbal decision analysis. The authors propose certain modifications to the method of ordinary classification. The proposed technology is implemented as a web application, which is used to design a system that evaluates the probability of a successful project.

  17. Optimal Decision-making Model of Integrated Water Resources Management - A Case of Hsinchu Water Resources Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

    2017-12-01

    The public use water in Hsinchu are mainly supplied from Baoshan Reservoir, Second Baoshan Reservoir, Yongheshan Reservoir and Longen Weir. However, the increasing water demand, caused by development of the Hsinchu Science and Industrial Park, results in supply stable water getting more difficult. For stabilize water supply in Hsinchu, the study applies long-term and short-term plans to fulfill the water shortage. Developing an efficient methodology to define a cost-effective action portfolio is an important task. Hence, the study develops a novel decision model, the Stochastic Programming with Recourse Decision Model (SPRDM), to estimate a cost-effective action portfolio. The first-stage of SPRDM determine the long-term action portfolio and the portfolio accompany recourse information (the probability for water shortage event). The second-stage of SPRDM optimize the cost-effective action portfolio in response to the recourse information. In order to consider the uncertainty of reservoir sediment and demand growth, the study set 9 scenarios comprise optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic reservoir sediment and demand growth. The results show the optimal action portfolio consist of FengTain Lake and Panlon Weir, Hsinchu Desalination Plant, Domestic and Industrial Water long-term plans, and Emergency Backup Well, Irrigation Water Transference, Preliminary Water Rationing, Advanced Water Rationing and Water Transport from Other Districts short-term plans. The minimum expected cost of optimal action portfolio is NT$1.1002 billion. The results can be used as a reference for decision making because the results have considered the uncertainty of varied hydrology, reservoir sediment, and water demand growth.

  18. Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

    2014-02-01

    Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

  19. The Influnce of Metacognition on Managerial Hiring Decision Making: Implications for Management Development

    OpenAIRE

    Kumar, Angela Ewell

    1998-01-01

    THE INFLUENCE OF METACOGNITION ON MANAGERIAL HIRING DECISION MAKING: IMPLICATIONS FOR MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT by Angela Ewell Kumar (ABSTRACT) Cognitive processing has a primary role in decision making. In addition, metacognition, the regulation and knowledge of cognition, affects decision making in a consistent and predictable way. Novices explain situations in a simple way. Novices are more likely to make inappropriate decisions. Research suggests that train...

  20. Consequences of eutrophication in the management of water resources in Mediterranean reservoirs: A case study of Lake Cedrino (Sardinia, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bachisio Mario Padedda

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary detrimental effects of eutrophication is the tendency of nuisance cyanobacterial species to increase in number and biomass in freshwater ecosystems. The aim of this study was to investigate possible management actions to control eutrophication and assure water use of a eutrophic deep Mediterranean climate reservoir, dominated by cyanobacteria. With this goal, we defined the trophic state of Lake Cedrino (Sardinia, Italy and studied its phytoplankton, paying particular attention to cyanobacteria, and to seasonal variation of phytoplankton in relation to seasonal variation of environmental variables. The water samples were collected monthly from September 2010 to August 2011 at differing depths from the surface of the water to the bottom at a station located in the deeper portion of the reservoir. Physical, chemical, nutrient, qualitative and quantitative analyses of phytoplankton were performed, and the trophic state was evaluated based on the Trophic State Index and the OECD model. Abundance of nutrients and phytoplankton (cell density, biomass and chlorophyll a indicated a eutrophic condition of the reservoir. In summer, phytoplankton species composition was dominated by nuisance cyanobacteria, particularly Aphanizomenon flosaquae, thereby requiring management plans for harmful blooms. On the base of lake features, we propose management actions at different scales and levels to resolve eutrophication and to allow water use: from nutrient load reduction in the watershed (primarily from point-sources to deep water aeration, to immediately face an attenuation of eutrophic effects. This study is the first explorative step in planning restoration of Lake Cedrino.

  1. New geomechanical developments for reservoir management; Desenvolvimentos experimentais e computacionais para analises geomecanicas de reservatorio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soares, Antonio C.; Menezes Filho, Armando Prestes; Silvestre, Jose R. [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas (CENPES)

    2008-07-01

    The common assumption that oil is produced under a constant rate only considering reservoir depletion has been questioned for some time. An usual hypothesis is that the physical properties of a reservoir are not constants during time, but they vary according to the properties of reservoir rock and the characteristics of the external loads. More precisely, as soon as a reservoir is explored, the volume of fluid diminishes, decreasing the static pressure and increasing the effective stress over the rock skeleton, which, depending on the nature of rock, can lead to a gradual deformation and alteration of reservoir's porosity and permeability, and oil productivity as well. This paper aims at showing numerical and experimental achievements, developed by the Well bore Engineering Technology Department of CENPES, devoted to the characterization of the influence of stress-strain states on the permeability and production of reservoir rocks. It is believed that these developments can possibly bring some light to the understanding of this complex phenomenon, besides allowing the establishment of more realistic relations involving stress-strain-permeability in coupled fluid dynamic problems. (author)

  2. Assessing environmental conditions of Antarctic footpaths to support management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedo, Pablo; Benayas, Javier; Cajiao, Daniela; Albertos, Belén; Lara, Francisco; Pertierra, Luis R; Andrés-Abellán, Manuela; Wic, Consuelo; Luciáñez, Maria José; Enríquez, Natalia; Justel, Ana; Reck, Günther K

    2016-07-15

    Thousands of tourists visit certain Antarctic sites each year, generating a wide variety of environmental impacts. Scientific knowledge of human activities and their impacts can help in the effective design of management measures and impact mitigation. We present a case study from Barrientos Island in which a management measure was originally put in place with the goal of minimizing environmental impacts but resulted in new undesired impacts. Two alternative footpaths used by tourist groups were compared. Both affected extensive moss carpets that cover the middle part of the island and that are very vulnerable to trampling. The first path has been used by tourists and scientists since over a decade and is a marked route that is clearly visible. The second one was created more recently. Several physical and biological indicators were measured in order to assess the environmental conditions for both paths. Some physical variables related to human impact were lower for the first path (e.g. soil penetration resistance and secondary treads), while other biochemical and microbiological variables were higher for the second path (e.g. β-glucosidase and phosphatase activities, soil respiration). Moss communities located along the new path were also more diverse and sensitive to trampling. Soil biota (Collembola) was also more abundant and richer. These data indicate that the decision to adopt the second path did not lead to the reduction of environmental impacts as this path runs over a more vulnerable area with more outstanding biological features (e.g. microbiota activity, flora and soil fauna diversity). In addition, the adoption of a new route effectively doubles the human footprint on the island. We propose using only the original path that is less vulnerable to the impacts of trampling. Finally from this process, we identify several key issues that may be taken into account when carrying out impact assessment and environmental management decision-making in the

  3. Iowa pavement asset management decision-making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Most local agencies in Iowa currently make their pavement treatment decisions based on their limited experience due primarily to : lack of a systematic decision-making framework and a decision-aid tool. The lack of objective condition assessment data...

  4. Integrated Services Management System (ISMS): A management and decision making tool

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barber, D.S.; Brockman, D.L.; Buxton, L.D. [and others

    1995-10-01

    This document provides information concerning the Integrated Services Management System (ISMS) that was developed for the Laboratories Services Division during the period February 1994 through May 1995. ISMS was developed as a formal method for centralized management of programs within the Division. With minor modifications, this system can be adapted for management of all overhead functions at SNL or for sector level program management. Included in this document are the reasons for the creation of this system as well as the resulting benefits. The ISMS consists of six interlinked processes; Issues Management, Task/Activity Planning, Work Decision, Commitment Management, Process/Project Management, and Performance Assessment. Those processes are described in detail within this document. Additionally, lessons learned and suggestions for future improvements are indicated.

  5. Surrogate decision makers and proxy ownership: challenges of privacy management in health care decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bute, Jennifer J; Petronio, Sandra; Torke, Alexia M

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the communicative experiences of surrogates who served as decision makers for patients who were unable to convey health information and choices about treatment options. Drawing on assumptions from communication privacy management theory (Petronio, 2002), 35 surrogates were interviewed to explore how they navigated the role of guardian of patients' private health information while the patient was hospitalized. This research determined that not only are surrogates guardians and thereby co-owners of the patients' private health information, they actually served in a "proxy ownership" role. Surrogates described obstacles to both obtaining and sharing private health information about the patient, suggesting that their rights as legitimate co-owners of the patients' information were not fully acknowledged by the medical teams. Surrogates also described challenges in performing the proxy ownership role when they were not fully aware of the patient's wishes. Theoretical and practical implications of these challenges are discussed.

  6. Superposition well-test method for reservoir characterization and pressure management during CO2 injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    As a significant fraction of a carbon storage project's budget is devoted to site characterization and monitoring, there has been an intense drive in recent years to both lower cost and improve the quality of data obtained. Two data streams that are cheap and always available are pressure and flow rate measurements from the injection well. Falloff testing, in which the well is shut-in for some period of time and the pressure decline curve measured, is often used to probe the storage zone and look for indications of hydraulic barriers, fracture-dominated flow, and other reservoir characteristics. These tests can be used to monitor many hydromechanical processes of interest, including hydraulic fracturing and fault reactivation. Unfortunately, the length of the shut-in period controls how far away from the injector information may be obtained. For operational reasons these tests are typically kept short and infrequent, limiting their usefulness. In this work, we present a new analysis method in which ongoing injection data is used to reconstruct an equivalent falloff test, without shutting in the well. The entire history of injection may therefore be used as a stand in for a very long test. The method relies upon a simple superposition principle to transform a multi-rate injection sequence into an equivalent single-rate process. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the method using injection data from the Snøhvit storage project. We also explore its utility in an active pressure management scenario. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  7. Decision support system for peatland management in the humid tropics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ritzema, H.P.; Grobbe, T.; Chong, T.; Wösten, J.H.M.

    2003-01-01

    Large areas of globally important tropical peatland in Southeast Asia are threatened by land clearance, degradation and fire, jeopardising their natural functions as reservoirs of biodiversity, carbon stores and hydrological buffers. Many development projects on tropical peatlands have failed

  8. Disease management in healthcare organizations: results of in-depth interviews with disease management decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whellan, David J; Cohen, Elizabeth J; Matchar, David B; Califf, Robert M

    2002-07-01

    Despite the widening use of disease management (DM) programs throughout the country, little is understood about the "state of DM" in healthcare systems and managed care organizations. To better characterize the range of users of DM in healthcare and to identify critical issues, both present and future, for DM. Qualitative survey. Forty-seven healthcare systems (n = 22) and managed care organizations (n = 25) were randomly selected. Decision makers were identified and interviewed between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2000. We limited quantitative analysis to tabulations of suitable responses, without statistical testing. Responses were organized around 3 themes: models for DM, implementation strategies, and measurements of success. Of 47 decision makers surveyed, 42 (89%) reported that their organizations currently have (75%) or are working to develop (14%) DM programs. Although the goals of DM programs were similar, organizations took a variety of approaches to achieving these ends. There were typically 3 steps in implementing a DM program: analysis of patient data, external analysis, and organizational analysis. Decision makers believed that DM programs had only achieved partial success in reaching the 2 main goals of improved quality of care and cost savings. Given the variety of DM programs, there is a need to develop a classification scheme to allow for better comparison between programs. Further quantitative studies of decision makers' opinions would be helpful in developing programs and in designing necessary studies of patient management strategies.

  9. Make a CHANGE: optimising communication and pain management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Schwefe, Gerhard; Jaksch, Wolfgang; Morlion, Bart; Kalso, Eija; Schäfer, Michael; Coluzzi, Flaminia; Huygen, Frank; Kocot-Kepska, Magdalena; Mangas, Ana Cristina; Margarit, Cesar; Ahlbeck, Karsten; Mavrocordatos, Philippe; Alon, Eli; Collett, Beverly; Aldington, Dominic; Nicolaou, Andrew; Pergolizzi, Joseph; Varrassi, Giustino

    2011-02-01

    The major objectives of the CHANGE PAIN International Advisory Board are to enhance understanding of chronic pain and to develop strategies for improving pain management. At its second meeting, in November 2009, evidence was presented that around one person in five in Europe and the USA experiences chronic pain, and the delay before referral to a pain specialist is often several years. Moreover, physicians' pharmacological approach to chronic pain is inconsistent, as evidenced by the huge variation in treatment between different European countries. It was agreed that efficient communication between physician and patient is essential for effective pain management, and that efficacy/side-effect balance is a key factor in choosing an analgesic agent. The multifactorial nature of chronic pain produces various physical and psychological symptoms, so the management of chronic pain should be tailored to the individual. Pharmacological therapy must be matched to the causative mechanisms responsible, or it is likely to prove ineffective and risk the development of a 'vicious circle'; doses are increased because of inadequate pain relief, but this increases side-effects so doses are reduced, pain relief is then inadequate, so doses are increased, and so on. Pain management decisions should not therefore be based solely on the severity of pain. Based on the concept of individual treatment targets (ITT), the CHANGE PAIN Scale was adopted - a simple, user-friendly assessment tool to improve communication between physician and patient. The 11-point NRS enables the patient to rate the current pain intensity and to set a realistic individual target level. On the reverse are six key parameters affecting the patient's quality of life; clinicians simply need to agree with patients whether improvement is needed in each one. Regular use can establish the efficacy and tolerability of pain management, and the rate of progress towards individual treatment targets.

  10. Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

    2017-12-15

    Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. DECISIVE FACTORS OF TALENT MANAGEMENT IMPLEMENTATION IN CZECH ORGANISATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adéla Fajčíková

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The effort of every organisation is to have talented staff, and in the case that these employees are available in the organisation is to ensure they are motivated to stay in the organisation. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the influence of decisive factors on the implementation of activities relating to talent management and the approach of Czech organisations to this new trend as well. Data was obtained through questionnaire surveys in selected Czech organisations in 2014/2015 (n = 389, 2015/2016 (n = 402 and in 2016/2017 (n = 207. The results showed that the chances to implement talent management were significantly higher for organisations operating in national or international markets, organisations with more than 50 employees and organisations with a separate HR department, where this chance was even 4.1 times higher. Surveyed organisations use talent management the most often in the areas of employees´ recruitment, employees´ training and development, and their evaluation and remuneration.

  12. Development and commissioning of decision support tools for sewerage management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manic, G; Printemps, C; Zug, M; Lemoine, C

    2006-01-01

    Managing sewerage systems is a highly complex task due to the dynamic nature of the facilities. Their performance strongly depends on the know-how applied by the operators. In order to define optimal operational settings, two decision support tools based on mathematical models have been developed. Moreover, easy-to-use interfaces have been created as well, aiding operators who presumably do not have the necessary skills to use modelling software. The two developed programs simulate the behaviour of both wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and sewer network systems, respectively. They have essentially the same structure, including raw data management and statistical analysis, a simulation layer using the application programming interface of the applied software and a layer responsible for the representation of the obtained results. Four user modes are provided in the two software including the simulation of historical data using the applied and novel operational settings, as well as modes concerning prediction of possible operation periods and updates. Concerning the WWTP software, it was successfully installed in Nantes (France) in June 2004. Moreover, the one managing sewer networks has been deployed in Saint-Malo (France) in January 2005. This paper presents the structure of the developed software and the first results obtained during the commissioning phase.

  13. An optimal decision making model for supporting week hospital management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conforti, Domenico; Guerriero, Francesca; Guido, Rosita; Cerinic, Marco Matucci; Conforti, Maria Letizia

    2011-03-01

    Week Hospital is an innovative inpatient health care organization and management, by which hospital stay services are planned in advance and delivered on week-time basis to elective patients. In this context, a strategic decision is the optimal clinical management of patients, and, in particular, devising efficient and effective admission and scheduling procedures, by tackling different requirements such as beds' availability, diagnostic resources, and treatment capabilities. The main aim is to maximize the patient flow, by ensuring the delivery of all clinical services during the week. In this paper, the optimal management of Week Hospital patients is considered. We have developed and validated an innovative integer programming model, based on clinical resources allocation and beds utilization. In particular, the model aims at scheduling Week Hospital patients' admission/discharge, possibly reducing the length of stay on the basis of an available timetable of clinical services. The performance of the model has been evaluated, in terms of efficiency and robustness, by considering real data coming from a Week Hospital Rheumatology Division. The experimental results have been satisfactory and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  14. Architectural Decision Management for Digital Transformation of Products and Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Zimmermann

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The digitization of our society changes the way we live, work, learn, communicate, and collaborate. The Internet of Things, Enterprise Social Networks, Adaptive Case Management, Mobility systems, Analytics for Big Data, and Cloud services environments are emerging to support smart connected products and services and the digital transformation. Biological metaphors of living and adaptable ecosystems provide the logical foundation for self-optimizing and resilient run-time environments for intelligent business services and service-oriented enterprise architectures. Our aim is to support flexibility and agile transformations for both business domains and related information technology. The present research paper investigates mechanisms for decision analytics in the context of multi-perspective explorations of enterprise services and their digital enterprise architectures by extending original architecture reference models with state of art elements for agile architectural engineering for the digitization and collaborative architectural decision support. The paper’s context focuses on digital transformations of business and IT and integrates fundamental mappings between adaptable digital enterprise architectures and service-oriented information systems. We are putting a spotlight on the example domain – Internet of Things.

  15. Key factors influencing management decisions concerning safety equipment selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinda, Thanwadee; Ammarapala, Veeris; Suanmali, Suthathip

    2017-08-31

    The construction industry involves many hazardous activities that may expose workers to a wide variety of health hazards. Selection of construction safety equipment is crucial in ensuring workers' safety. This article aims to examine key factors influencing management decisions concerning safety equipment selection, utilizing exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A questionnaire survey is conducted in the construction companies in Bangkok, Thailand. The factor analysis extracts 103 sets of data into six key factors - namely supplier agreements, supplier support, personal, equipment design, safety-related policies and cost value factors - with a total of 20 associated items. The AHP results conclude that the safety-related policies, equipment design and personal factors are the most important factors when selecting construction safety equipment. A construction company can use the study results as a checklist to help assess different safety equipment, and to select the best equipment.

  16. Phenology for science, resource management, decision making, and education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, V.P.; Weltzin, J.F.

    2011-01-01

    Fourth USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN) Research Coordination Network (RCN) Annual Meeting and Stakeholders Workshop; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 21-22 September 2010; Phenology, the study of recurring plant and animal life cycle events, is rapidly emerging as a fundamental approach for understanding how ecological systems respond to environmental variation and climate change. The USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN; http://www.usanpn.org) is a large-scale network of governmental and nongovernmental organizations, academic institutions, resource management agencies, and tribes. The network is dedicated to conducting and promoting repeated and integrated plant and animal phenological observations, identifying linkages with other relevant biological and physical data sources, and developing and distributing the tools to analyze these data at local to national scales. The primary goal of the USA-NPN is to improve the ability of decision makers to design strategies for climate adaptation.

  17. Influence diagrams and decision trees for severe accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goetz, W.W.J.; Seebregts, A.J.; Bedford, T.J.

    1996-08-01

    A review of relevent methodologies based on Influence Diagrams (IDs), Decision Trees (DTs), and Containment Event Trees (CETs) was conducted to assess the practicality of these methods for the selection of effective strategies for Severe Accident Management (SAM). The review included an evaluation of some software packages for these methods. The emphasis was on possible pitfalls of using IDs and on practical aspects, the latter by performance of a case study that was based on an existing Level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The study showed that the use of a combined ID/DT model has advantages over CET models, in particular when conservatisms in the Level 2 PSA have been identified and replaced by fair assessments of the uncertainties involved. It is recommended to use ID/DT models as complementary to CET models. (orig.)

  18. Decision Support System for Blockage Management in Fire Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krasuski Adam

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present the foundations of a decision support system for blockage management in Fire Service. Blockage refers to the situation when all fire units are out and a new incident occurs. The approach is based on two phases: off-line data preparation and online blockage estimation. The off-line phase consists of methods from data mining and natural language processing and results in semantically coherent information granules. The online phase is about building the probabilistic models that estimate the block-age probability based on these granules. Finally, the selected classifier judges whether a blockage can occur and whether the resources from neighbour fire stations should be asked for assistance.

  19. Scoping Summary Report: Development of Lower Basin Shortage Guidelines and Coordinated Management Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Particularly Under Low Reservoir Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation

    2006-01-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) acting on behalf of the Secretary of the Department of the Interior (Secretary) proposes to take action to adopt specific Colorado River Lower Basin shortage guidelines and coordinated reservoir management strategies to address operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, particularly under low reservoir conditions. This proposed Action will provide a greater degree of certainty to all water users and managers in the Colorado River Basin by providing more d...

  20. Technology strategy for integrated operations and real time reservoir management; Technology Target Areas; TTA5 - Integrated operations and RTRM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2007-07-01

    In Norway Integrated Operations (IO) is a concept which in the first phase (G1) has been used to describe how to integrate processes and people onshore and offshore using ICT solutions and facilities that improve onshore's ability to support offshore operationally. The second generation (G2) Integrated Operations aims to help operators utilize vendors' core competencies and services more efficiently. Utilizing digital services and vendor products, operators will be able to update reservoir models, drilling targets and well trajectories as wells are drilled, manage well completions remotely, optimize production from reservoir to export lines, and implement condition-based maintenance concepts. The total impact on production, recovery rates, costs and safety will be profound. When the international petroleum business moves to the Arctic region the setting is very different from what is the case on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and new challenges will arise. The Norwegian Ministry of Environment has recently issued an Integrated Management Plan for the Barents Sea where one focus is on 'Monitoring of the Marine Environment in the North'. The Government aims to establish a new and more coordinated system for monitoring the marine ecosystems in the north. A representative group consisting of the major Operators, the Service Industry, Academia and the Authorities have developed the enclosed strategy for the OG21 Integrated Operations and Real Time Reservoir Management (IO and RTRM) Technology Target Area (TTA). Major technology and work process research and development gaps have been identified in several areas: Bandwidth down-hole to surface; Sensor development including Nano-technology; Cross discipline use of Visualisation, Simulation and model development particularly in Drilling and Reservoir management areas; Software development in terms of data handling, model updating and calculation speed; Enabling reliable and robust communications

  1. Intuitive decision - making and leadership competencies of managers in Slovenian automotive industry

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Erenda; Maja Meško; Boris Bukovec

    2014-01-01

    Research question (RQ): Presence of intuitive decision - making by top and middle managers in Slovenian automotive industry. Purpose: Establish the presence of inuitive decision - making by top and middle managers in Slovenian automotive industry, define the intuitive decision - making with variables of leadership competencies. Methodology: empirical research was conducted within the quantitative research approach by means of a GDMS questionnaire (General Decision Making Style). The ...

  2. Management decision making for fisher populations informed by occupancy modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Angela K.; Linden, Daniel W.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Harvest data are often used by wildlife managers when setting harvest regulations for species because the data are regularly collected and do not require implementation of logistically and financially challenging studies to obtain the data. However, when harvest data are not available because an area had not previously supported a harvest season, alternative approaches are required to help inform management decision making. When distribution or density data are required across large areas, occupancy modeling is a useful approach, and under certain conditions, can be used as a surrogate for density. We collaborated with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (NYSDEC) to conduct a camera trapping study across a 70,096-km2 region of southern New York in areas that were currently open to fisher (Pekania [Martes] pennanti) harvest and those that had been closed to harvest for approximately 65 years. We used detection–nondetection data at 826 sites to model occupancy as a function of site-level landscape characteristics while accounting for sampling variation. Fisher occupancy was influenced positively by the proportion of conifer and mixed-wood forest within a 15-km2 grid cell and negatively associated with road density and the proportion of agriculture. Model-averaged predictions indicated high occupancy probabilities (>0.90) when road densities were low (0.50). Predicted occupancy ranged 0.41–0.67 in wildlife management units (WMUs) currently open to trapping, which could be used to guide a minimum occupancy threshold for opening new areas to trapping seasons. There were 5 WMUs that had been closed to trapping but had an average predicted occupancy of 0.52 (0.07 SE), and above the threshold of 0.41. These areas are currently under consideration by NYSDEC for opening a conservative harvest season. We demonstrate the use of occupancy modeling as an aid to management decision making when harvest-related data are unavailable and when budgetary

  3. A statistical data assimilation method for seasonal streamflow forecasting to optimize hydropower reservoir management in data-scarce regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, R.; Mai, J.; Latraverse, M.; Tolson, B.

    2017-12-01

    developed to assess the performance of each individual process in the reservoir management chain. Here the proposed method was compared to the PF algorithm while keeping all other elements intact. Preliminary results are encouraging in terms of power generation and robustness for the proposed approach.

  4. Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S; Winter, Patricia L; Maguire, Lynn A; Ascher, Timothy

    2011-05-01

    Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206 individuals in the USDA Forest Service with authority to choose how to manage a wildfire event (i.e., line officers and incident command personnel). The results indicate that the subjects exhibited loss aversion, choosing the safe option more often when the consequences of the choice were framed as potential gains, but this tendency was less pronounced among those with risk seeking attitudes. The subjects also exhibited discounting, choosing to minimize short-term over long-term risk due to a belief that future risk could be controlled, but this tendency was less pronounced among those with more experience. Finally, the subjects, in particular those with more experience, demonstrated a status quo bias, choosing suppression more often when their reported status quo was suppression. The results of this study point to a need to carefully construct the decision process to ensure that the uncertainty and conflicting objectives inherent in wildfire management do not result in the overuse of common heuristics. Individual attitudes toward risk or an agency culture of risk aversion may counterbalance such heuristics, whereas increased experience may lead to overconfident intuitive judgments and a failure to incorporate new and relevant information into the decision. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. Using multi-objective robust decision making to support seasonal water management in the Chao Phraya River basin, Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riegels, Niels; Jessen, Oluf; Madsen, Henrik

    2016-04-01

    A multi-objective robust decision making approach is demonstrated that supports seasonal water management in the Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. The approach uses multi-objective optimization to identify a Pareto-optimal set of management alternatives. Ensemble simulation is used to evaluate how each member of the Pareto set performs under a range of uncertain future conditions, and a robustness criterion is used to select a preferred alternative. Data mining tools are then used to identify ranges of uncertain factor values that lead to unacceptable performance for the preferred alternative. The approach is compared to a multi-criteria scenario analysis approach to estimate whether the introduction of additional complexity has the potential to improve decision making. Dry season irrigation in Thailand is managed through non-binding recommendations about the maximum extent of rice cultivation along with incentives for less water-intensive crops. Management authorities lack authority to prevent river withdrawals for irrigation when rice cultivation exceeds recommendations. In practice, this means that water must be provided to irrigate the actual planted area because of downstream municipal water supply requirements and water quality constraints. This results in dry season reservoir withdrawals that exceed planned withdrawals, reducing carryover storage to hedge against insufficient wet season runoff. The dry season planning problem in Thailand can therefore be framed in terms of decisions, objectives, constraints, and uncertainties. Decisions include recommendations about the maximum extent of rice cultivation and incentives for growing less water-intensive crops. Objectives are to maximize benefits to farmers, minimize the risk of inadequate carryover storage, and minimize incentives. Constraints include downstream municipal demands and water quality requirements. Uncertainties include the actual extent of rice cultivation, dry season precipitation, and

  6. Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

  7. The effect of scientific evidence on conservation practitioners’ management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Jessica C; Dicks, Lynn V; Sutherland, William J

    2015-01-01

    A major justification of environmental management research is that it helps practitioners, yet previous studies show it is rarely used to inform their decisions. We tested whether conservation practitioners focusing on bird management were willing to use a synopsis of relevant scientific literature to inform their management decisions. This allowed us to examine whether the limited use of scientific information in management is due to a lack of access to the scientific literature or whether it is because practitioners are either not interested or unable to incorporate the research into their decisions. In on-line surveys, we asked 92 conservation managers, predominantly from Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, to provide opinions on 28 management techniques that could be applied to reduce predation on birds. We asked their opinions before and after giving them a summary of the literature about the interventions’ effectiveness. We scored the overall effectiveness and certainty of evidence for each intervention through an expert elicitation process—the Delphi method. We used the effectiveness scores to assess the practitioners’ level of understanding and awareness of the literature. On average, each survey participant changed their likelihood of using 45.7% of the interventions after reading the synopsis of the evidence. They were more likely to implement effective interventions and avoid ineffective actions, suggesting that their intended future management strategies may be more successful than current practice. More experienced practitioners were less likely to change their management practices than those with less experience, even though they were not more aware of the existing scientific information than less experienced practitioners. The practitioners’ willingness to change their management choices when provided with summarized scientific evidence suggests that improved accessibility to scientific information would benefit conservation

  8. Application UPTASK project management platform to support management decisions in I.T.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lagerev D.G.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Project planning and management accounting of all factors, in terms of multitasking and spontaneity of project man-agement, the task is very voluminous and complex, especially in isolation from the methodological and instrumentation. Calculation of indicators and statistical metrics, and strategies, the decision maker may be biased or incorrect character, and one can’t exclude the human factor. In such a perspective, it was decided to automate the process of statistical anal-ysis and probabilistic forecasting to help the decision-maker, as much as the right choice of strategic and project plan-ning. The problem is solved by means of the development of the project management system for the companies of the areas of information technology. One of the most important features of the development of a module statistical and probabilistic analysis based on Bayesian networks. The use of the proposed tool and methodological complex, will pro-vide a high level of optimization of the allocation of time to work processes and will increase the degree of correctness and continuity of decisions taken by the project manager.

  9. Fish community and fisheries management of Brno Reservoir following revitalisation measures

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jurajda, Pavel; Adámek, Zdeněk; Valová, Zdenka; Janáč, Michal; Roche, Kevin Francis

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 64, č. 2 (2015), s. 112-122 ISSN 0139-7893 R&D Projects: GA ČR GBP505/12/G112 Institutional support: RVO:68081766 Keywords : biomanipulation * recreational reservoir * eutrophication Subject RIV: EG - Zoology Impact factor: 0.592, year: 2015

  10. Decisive management in selecting locations for development of construction projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranko, E.; Pawłowicz, J. A.

    2017-08-01

    The location of an investment project is one of the most important decisions in the construction and land development business. The shape of a new building and aspects of its future use depend on making a good choice of a land plot where it will be constructed. There are many characteristics involved descriptions of land available for development. On the one hand, different buildings (with different envisaged use) fit differently to a given location. Residential homes, for example, require a location which will ensure a peaceful lifestyle, with places for walks and recreation, situated in a relatively quite setting. On the other hand, close proximity to schools, shops or a health clinic is another important consideration. Industrial buildings should be localized so as not to be a nuisance to others, and their location should facilitate efficient transport of raw materials and ready products. Yet other requirements are defined for public buildings. It is therefore evident that the characteristics included in an evaluation of the location of a planned building can be highly diverse and their diversity makes the evaluation difficult. Selection of a location can be supported by a variety of methods. For instance, an evaluation can rely on assigning points which indicate the fulfillment of certain criteria. This approach generates a complex evaluation in the form of tables and maps of usefulness. Another possibility is to make an assessment of the criteria that a given land parcels should satisfy in order to develop a specific type of a building. Having combined these two sets of information, we can create a system or a model for the management of land resources, which will easily help to support decision making processes pertaining to the choice of a location. This article shows a model approach for a specific building.

  11. Development of a decision support tool for seasonal water supply management incorporating system uncertainties and operational constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Asefa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A real-time decision support tool (DST) for water supply system would consider system uncertainties, e.g., uncertain streamflow and demand, as well as operational constraints and infrastructure outage (e.g., pump station shutdown, an offline reservoir due to maintenance). Such DST is often used by water managers for resource allocation and delivery for customers. Although most seasonal DST used by water managers recognize those system uncertainties and operational constraints, most use only historical information or assume deterministic outlook of water supply systems. This study presents a seasonal DST that incorporates rainfall/streamflow uncertainties, seasonal demand outlook and system operational constraints. Large scale climate-information is captured through a rainfall simulator driven by a Bayesian non-homogeneous Markov Chain Monte Carlo model that allows non-stationary transition probabilities contingent on Nino 3.4 index. An ad-hoc seasonal demand forecasting model considers weather conditions explicitly and socio-economic factors implicitly. Latin Hypercube sampling is employed to effectively sample probability density functions of flow and demand. Seasonal system operation is modelled as a mixed-integer optimization problem that aims at minimizing operational costs. It embeds the flexibility of modifying operational rules at different components, e.g., surface water treatment plants, desalination facilities, and groundwater pumping stations. The proposed framework is illustrated at a wholesale water supplier in Southeastern United States, Tampa Bay Water. The use of the tool is demonstrated in proving operational guidance in a typical drawdown and refill cycle of a regional reservoir. The DST provided: 1) probabilistic outlook of reservoir storage and chance of a successful refill by the end of rainy season; 2) operational expectations for large infrastructures (e.g., high service pumps and booster stations) throughout the season. Other potential use

  12. Decision-making processes for the self-management of persistent pain: a grounded theory study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenwick, Clare; Chaboyer, Wendy; St John, Winsome

    2012-08-01

    Persistent pain negatively impacts upon the individual suffering this condition. Almost all care related to persistent pain is self-managed. Decision-making is a critical skill of the self-manager and without these skills it would be improbable that effective self-management would emerge. However, current theories regarding decision-making and self-management have not adequately accounted for the many difficulties faced by individuals enduring persistent pain and the consequences of these experiences for the decision-maker. This grounded theory study revealed that individuals will transform into three distinct types of decision-makers using three different styles of decision-making in response to the many and varied problems related to the experience of persistent pain. These findings will provide nurses with valuable information to better equip individuals with persistent pain through the decision-making processes necessary for successful self-management.

  13. Decision support system for optimally managing water resources to meet multiple objectives in the Savannah River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Managers of large river basins face conflicting demands for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin, for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting dependent economies for years. The Savannah River estuary contains two municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor to expand ship traffic since the 1970s have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent. A planned deepening of the harbor includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity, whose effectiveness will only be known after all construction is completed.One of the challenges of large basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of

  14. Waste Acceptance Decisions and Uncertainty Analysis at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redus, K. S.; Patterson, J. E.; Hampshire, G. L.; Perkins, A. B.

    2003-02-25

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Attainment Team (AT) routinely provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Operations with Go/No-Go decisions associated with the disposition of over 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous waste. This supply of waste comes from 60+ environmental restoration projects over the next 15 years planned to be dispositioned at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). The EMWMF WAC AT decision making process is accomplished in four ways: (1) ensure a clearly defined mission and timeframe for accomplishment is established, (2) provide an effective organization structure with trained personnel, (3) have in place a set of waste acceptance decisions and Data Quality Objectives (DQO) for which quantitative measures are required, and (4) use validated risk-based forecasting, decision support, and modeling/simulation tools. We provide a summary of WAC AT structure and performance. We offer suggestions based on lessons learned for effective transfer to other DOE.

  15. Waste Acceptance Decisions and Uncertainty Analysis at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redus, K. S.; Patterson, J. E.; Hampshire, G. L.; Perkins, A. B.

    2003-01-01

    The Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Attainment Team (AT) routinely provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Operations with Go/No-Go decisions associated with the disposition of over 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous waste. This supply of waste comes from 60+ environmental restoration projects over the next 15 years planned to be dispositioned at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). The EMWMF WAC AT decision making process is accomplished in four ways: (1) ensure a clearly defined mission and timeframe for accomplishment is established, (2) provide an effective organization structure with trained personnel, (3) have in place a set of waste acceptance decisions and Data Quality Objectives (DQO) for which quantitative measures are required, and (4) use validated risk-based forecasting, decision support, and modeling/simulation tools. We provide a summary of WAC AT structure and performance. We offer suggestions based on lessons learned for effective transfer to other DOE

  16. Modelling the impacts of altered management practices, land use and climate changes on the water quality of the Millbrook catchment-reservoir system in South Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hong Hanh; Recknagel, Friedrich; Meyer, Wayne; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Shrestha, Manoj Kumar

    2017-11-01

    Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires taking into account the potential effects of their catchments' development. This study is an attempt to estimate the daily patterns of nutrients transport in the catchment - reservoir systems through the application of the ensemble of complementary models SWAT-SALMO. SWAT quantifies flow, nitrate and phosphate loadings originating in catchments before entering downstream reservoirs meanwhile SALMO determines phosphate, nitrate, and chlorophyll-a concentrations within the reservoirs. The study applies to the semi-arid Millbrook catchment-reservoir system that supplies drinking water to north-eastern suburbs of Adelaide, South Australia. The catchment hosts viti- and horticultural land uses. The warm-monomictic, mesotrophic reservoir is artificially aerated in summer. After validating the simulation results for both Millbrook catchment and reservoir, a comprehensive scenario analysis has been conducted to reveal cascading effects of altered management practices, land uses and climate conditions on water quality in the reservoir. Results suggest that the effect on reservoir condition in summer would be severe, most likely resulting in chlorophyll-a concentrations of greater than 40 μg/l if the artificial destratification was not applied from early summer. A 50% curbing of water diversion from an external pipeline to the catchment will slightly limit chlorophyll-a concentrations by 1.22% as an effect of reduced inflow phosphate loads. The simulation of prospective land use scenarios converting 50% of present pasture in the Millbrook catchment into residential and orchards areas indicates an increase of summer chlorophyll-a concentrations by 9.5-107.9%, respectively in the reservoir. Global warming scenarios based on the high emission simulated by SWAT-SALMO did result in earlier growth of chlorophyll-a but overall the effects on water quality in the Millbrook reservoir was not significant. However scenarios

  17. The Wildland Fire Decision Support System: Integrating science, technology, and fire management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan Pence; Tom Zimmerman

    2011-01-01

    Federal agency policy requires documentation and analysis of all wildland fire response decisions. In the past, planning and decision documentation for fires were completed using multiple unconnected processes, yielding many limitations. In response, interagency fire management executives chartered the development of the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)....

  18. Shared Decision-Making in the Management of Congenital Vascular Malformations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horbach, S.E.; Ubbink, D.T.; Stubenrouch, F.E.; Koelemay, M.J.; Vleuten, C.J.M. van der; Verhoeven, B.H.; Reekers, J.A.; Schultze Kool, L.J.; Horst, C.M. van der

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In shared decision-making, clinicians and patients arrive at a joint treatment decision, by incorporating best available evidence and the patients' personal values and preferences. Little is known about the role of shared decision-making in managing patients with congenital vascular

  19. Connecting engineering operations to strategic management: a framework for decision making in engineering offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2012-01-01

    of the organisation. The Global Decision-Making (GDM) framework described here is a decision-making framework for engineering offshoring decisions for product development activities. The framework proposes that risks in engineering offshoring can be reduced by connecting engineering operations to strategic management...

  20. A queueing model of pilot decision making in a multi-task flight management situation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walden, R. S.; Rouse, W. B.

    1977-01-01

    Allocation of decision making responsibility between pilot and computer is considered and a flight management task, designed for the study of pilot-computer interaction, is discussed. A queueing theory model of pilot decision making in this multi-task, control and monitoring situation is presented. An experimental investigation of pilot decision making and the resulting model parameters are discussed.

  1. Evaluation of Management of Water Releases for Painted Rocks Reservoir, Bitterroot River, Montana, 1983-1986, Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spoon, Ronald L. (Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks, Missoula, MT)

    1987-06-01

    This study was initiated in July, 1983 to develop a water management plan for the release of water purchased from Painted Rocks Reservoir. Releases were designed to provide optimum benefits to the Bitterroot River fishery. Fisheries, habitat, and stream flow information was gathered to evaluate the effectiveness of these supplemental releases in improving trout populations in the Bitterroot River. The study was part of the Northwest Power Planning Council's Fish and Wildlife Program and was funded by the Bonneville Power Administration. This report presents data collected from 1983 through 1986.

  2. Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, Bruce; Ford, David N.; Horton, Radley M.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

  3. A multiple criteria decision making approach to manure management systems in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gebrezgabher, S.A.; Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    The intensification of livestock operations in the last few decades has resulted in an increased social concern over the environmental impacts of livestock operations and thus making appropriate manure management decisions increasingly important. A socially acceptable manure management system that

  4. Shared decision-making in the context of unruptured intracranial aneurysms management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís Henrique de Castro-Afonso

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Shared decision-making practice has been encouraged in several clinical settings. In this model, clinical decisions are defined by doctors and patients based on the principle of patient autonomy. Shared decisions have been argued as an ethical clinical practice during complex and uncertain clinical situations. The best management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA remains controversial. Despite the fact that shared decisions has probably been practiced, as far as we are aware it has not yet been evaluated, nor has it been standardized for patients presenting UIA. We aim to discuss possible roles, pros and cons of shared decision-making on the management of UIA.

  5. Shared decision-making in the context of unruptured intracranial aneurysms management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro-Afonso, Luís Henrique de; Abud, Daniel Giansante

    2015-09-01

    Shared decision-making practice has been encouraged in several clinical settings. In this model, clinical decisions are defined by doctors and patients based on the principle of patient autonomy. Shared decisions have been argued as an ethical clinical practice during complex and uncertain clinical situations. The best management of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIA) remains controversial. Despite the fact that shared decisions has probably been practiced, as far as we are aware it has not yet been evaluated, nor has it been standardized for patients presenting UIA. We aim to discuss possible roles, pros and cons of shared decision-making on the management of UIA.

  6. TENDENCY OF IMPROVEMENT ANALYSIS OF VENTURE ACTIVITY FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.Yu. Iakovetс

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The questions concerning the definition of current trends and prospects of venture financing new innovative enterprises as one of the most effective and alternative, but with a high degree of risk financing sources of the entity. The features of venture financing that is different from other sources of business financing, as well as income from investments of venture capital can greatly exceed the volume of investments, but at the same time such financing risks are significant, so it all makes it necessary to build an effective system of venture capital investments in the workplace. In the course of the study also revealed problems of analysis and minimization of risks in the performance of venture financing of innovative enterprises. Defining characteristics analysis and risk assessment of venture financing helps to find ways to minimize and systematization, avoidance and prevention of risks in the performance of venture capital. The study also identified the major areas of improvement analysis of venture capital for management decisions.

  7. Bounded decision making and analytical biases in demand side management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janda, K.B.

    1994-08-01

    Demand side management (DSM) programs across the United States commonly approach barriers to energy efficiency through technical/economic means and evaluate their impact through technical/economic analysis. To the extent that non-technical barriers exist and influence decision making, they complicate the expected capture of savings. Two utility DSM projects -- Pacific Gas and Electric`s Advanced Customer Technology Test for Maximum Energy Efficiency (ACT{sup 2}) and Bonneville Power Administration`s Energy Edge -- serve as case studies to illustrate how non-technical barriers to specific energy-efficiency measures (EEMs) can limit technical conservation potential. An analysis of rejected EEMs suggest that lessons about non-technical barriers to specific energy-efficiency measures (EEMs) can limit technical conservation potential. An analysis of rejected EEMs suggests that lessons about non-technical barriers may be lost or obscured because of the predominant focus on technical/economic criteria over social, institutional, or cultural constraints. These findings support the need for different evaluation methodologies and further social science research devoted to understanding the non-technical barriers confronted by DSM project participants.

  8. Constrained genetic algorithms for optimizing multi-use reservoir operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Wang, Kuo-Wei; Dai, Shin-Yi

    2010-08-01

    To derive an optimal strategy for reservoir operations to assist the decision-making process, we propose a methodology that incorporates the constrained genetic algorithm (CGA) where the ecological base flow requirements are considered as constraints to water release of reservoir operation when optimizing the 10-day reservoir storage. Furthermore, a number of penalty functions designed for different types of constraints are integrated into reservoir operational objectives to form the fitness function. To validate the applicability of this proposed methodology for reservoir operations, the Shih-Men Reservoir and its downstream water demands are used as a case study. By implementing the proposed CGA in optimizing the operational performance of the Shih-Men Reservoir for the last 20 years, we find this method provides much better performance in terms of a small generalized shortage index (GSI) for human water demands and greater ecological base flows for most of the years than historical operations do. We demonstrate the CGA approach can significantly improve the efficiency and effectiveness of water supply capability to both human and ecological base flow requirements and thus optimize reservoir operations for multiple water users. The CGA can be a powerful tool in searching for the optimal strategy for multi-use reservoir operations in water resources management.

  9. Modelling of Reservoir Operations using Fuzzy Logic and ANNs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van De Giesen, N.; Coerver, B.; Rutten, M.

    2015-12-01

    Today, almost 40.000 large reservoirs, containing approximately 6.000 km3 of water and inundating an area of almost 400.000 km2, can be found on earth. Since these reservoirs have a storage capacity of almost one-sixth of the global annual river discharge they have a large impact on the timing, volume and peaks of river discharges. Global Hydrological Models (GHM) are thus significantly influenced by these anthropogenic changes in river flows. We developed a parametrically parsimonious method to extract operational rules based on historical reservoir storage and inflow time-series. Managing a reservoir is an imprecise and vague undertaking. Operators always face uncertainties about inflows, evaporation, seepage losses and various water demands to be met. They often base their decisions on experience and on available information, like reservoir storage and the previous periods inflow. We modeled this decision-making process through a combination of fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks in an Adaptive-Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In a sensitivity analysis, we compared results for reservoirs in Vietnam, Central Asia and the USA. ANFIS can indeed capture reservoirs operations adequately when fed with a historical monthly time-series of inflows and storage. It was shown that using ANFIS, operational rules of existing reservoirs can be derived without much prior knowledge about the reservoirs. Their validity was tested by comparing actual and simulated releases with each other. For the eleven reservoirs modelled, the normalised outflow, , was predicted with a MSE of 0.002 to 0.044. The rules can be incorporated into GHMs. After a network for a specific reservoir has been trained, the inflow calculated by the hydrological model can be combined with the release and initial storage to calculate the storage for the next time-step using a mass balance. Subsequently, the release can be predicted one time-step ahead using the inflow and storage.

  10. Shoreline to Height (S2H): an algorithm to monitor reservoirs' water height from satellite images. A flood risk management application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Luca; Boni, Giorgio; Pulvirenti, Luca; Gabellani, Simone; Gardella, Fabio; Squicciarino, Giuseppe; Pierdicca, Nazzareno; Benedetto, Catia

    2016-04-01

    In a reservoir, water level monitoring is important for emergency management purposes. This information can be used to estimate the degree of filling of the water body, thus helping decision makers in flood control operations. Furthermore, if assimilated in hydrological models and coupled with rainfall forecasts, this information can be used for flood forecast and early warning. In many cases, water level is not known (e.g. data-scarce environments), or not shared by operators. Remote sensing may allow overcoming these limitations, enabling its estimation. The objective of this work is to present the Shoreline to Height (S2H) algorithm, developed to retrieve the height of the water stored in reservoirs from satellite images. To this aim, some auxiliary data are needed: a DEM and the maximum/minimum height that can be reached by the water. In data-scarce environments, these information can be easily obtained on the Internet (e.g. free, worldwide DEM and design data for artificial reservoirs). S2H was tested with different satellite data, both optical and SAR (Landsat and Cosmo SkyMed®-CSK®) in order to assess the impact of different sensors on the final estimates. The study area was the Place-Moulin Lake (Valle d'Aosta-VdA, Italy), where it is present a monitoring network that can provide reliable ground-truths for validating the algorithm and assessing its accuracy. When the algorithm was developed, it was assumed to be in absence of any "official"-auxiliary data. Therefore, two DEMs (SRTM 1 arc-second and ASTER GDEM) were used to evaluate their performances. The maximum/minimum water height values were found on the website of VdA Region. The S2H is based on three steps: i) satellite data preprocessing (Landsat: atmospheric correction; CSK®: geocoding and speckle filtering); ii) water mask generation (using a thresholding and region growing algorithm) and shoreline extraction; iii) retrieval of the shoreline height according to the reference DEMs (adopting a

  11. 77 FR 20843 - Record of Decision for the Nabesna Off-Road Vehicle Management Plan and Final Environmental...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-06

    ... Decision for the Nabesna Off-Road Vehicle Management Plan and Final Environmental Impact Statement... availability of a record of decision for the Nabesna Off-Road Vehicle Management Plan and Final Environmental... availability of a Record of Decision (ROD) that documents decisions regarding off-road vehicle management in...

  12. Managing Injected Water Composition To Improve Oil Recovery: A Case Study of North Sea Chalk Reservoirs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zahid, Adeel; Shapiro, Alexander; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    2012-01-01

    imbibition, which has been applied in most of the previous studies. Two different flooding schemes (with and without aging) were used for flooding North Sea reservoir chalk samples. For comparison, two tests were also carried out with Stevns Klint core plugs. The flooding tests were carried out...... composition but also the formation water composition affected the oil recovery at high temperatures from the Stevns Klint chalk rock....

  13. A novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Ya

    2015-01-01

    Accurately planning the procurement volume is an effective measure for controlling the medicine inventory cost. Due to uncertain demand it is difficult to make accurate decision on procurement volume. As to the biomedicine sensitive to time and season demand, the uncertain demand fitted by the fuzzy mathematics method is obviously better than general random distribution functions. To establish a novel medical information management and decision model for uncertain demand optimization. A novel optimal management and decision model under uncertain demand has been presented based on fuzzy mathematics and a new comprehensive improved particle swarm algorithm. The optimal management and decision model can effectively reduce the medicine inventory cost. The proposed improved particle swarm optimization is a simple and effective algorithm to improve the Fuzzy interference and hence effectively reduce the calculation complexity of the optimal management and decision model. Therefore the new model can be used for accurate decision on procurement volume under uncertain demand.

  14. Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

    2016-01-01

    Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

  15. FRAMEWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT USED IN CONTAMINATED LAND MANAGEMENT IN EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SULLIVAN,T.; BARDOS,R.P.; MAROT,C.; MARIOTTI,R.

    2000-06-01

    Effective contaminated land management requires a number of decisions addressing a suite of technical, economic and social concerns. This paper offers a common framework and terminology for describing decision support approaches, along with an overview of recent applications of decision support tools in Europe and the USA. A common problem with work on decision support approaches is a lack of a common framework and terminology to describe the process. These have been proposed in this paper.

  16. Visualization support for risk-informed decision making when planning and managing software developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feather, Martin S.; Kiper, James D.; Menzies, Tim

    2005-01-01

    Key decisions are made in the early stages of planning and management of software developments. The information basis for these decisions is often a mix of analogy with past developments, and the best judgments of domain experts. Visualization of this information can support to such decision making by clarifying the status of the information and yielding insights into the ramifications of that information vis-a-vis decision alternatives.

  17. Decision making for wildfires: A guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mary A. Taber; Lisa M. Elenz; Paul G. Langowski

    2013-01-01

    This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed decision making in accordance with Federal wildland fire policy, although the process is equally applicable to non-Federal...

  18. Pest management in Douglas-fir seed orchards: a microcomputer decision method

    Science.gov (United States)

    James B. Hoy; Michael I. Haverty

    1988-01-01

    The computer program described provides a Douglas-fir seed orchard manager (user) with a quantitative method for making insect pest management decisions on a desk-top computer. The decision system uses site-specific information such as estimates of seed crop size, insect attack rates, insecticide efficacy and application costs, weather, and crop value. At sites where...

  19. Methods to assess landscape-scale risk of bark beetle infestation to support forest management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    T. L. Shore; A. Fall; W. G. Riel; J. Hughes; M. Eng

    2010-01-01

    The objective of our paper is to provide practitioners with suggestions on how to select appropriate methods for risk assessment of bark beetle infestations at the landscape scale in order to support their particular management decisions and to motivate researchers to refine novel risk assessment methods. Methods developed to assist and inform management decisions for...

  20. THE INFLUENCE OF TOP MANAGEMENT DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ON DECISION MAKING APPROACHES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Bulog

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Today’s organizational environment requires managers to be an excellent decision maker with the ability to make effective decisions which will shape business performance. Because of the role that managers have in today’s business settings, research interest in the relationship between individual characteristics and managerial decision making in all its aspects has increased over the last decade. This paper aims to provide an overview and discussion of how individuals make choices and decisions by examining the influence of top management demographic characteristics on decision making approaches. Findings suggest that demographic characteristics appear to be valuable for predicting which decision making approach managers prefer. The results of the study show that the average age and education level of decision makers is positively related to the rational decision making approach and negatively to the intuitive decision making approach. Tenure is positively related to the intuitive decision making approach, but the influence is not statistically significant. Also, a difference in the decision making approach was found with respect to gender. In light of the research findings, implications and limitations were discussed and some possibilities for future research are suggested.

  1. Reliability of decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ionescu, Tudor B.

    2013-08-01

    Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safetycritical software systems, such as embedded software currently being used in vehicles and aircraft. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the design by diversity principle for improving the reliability of codes and the trustworthiness of results as well as on a flexible fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm for ensuring the maximum availability of the system. The author's contribution is represented by (i) an acceptance test for dispersion simulation results, (ii) an adjudication algorithm (voter) based on comparing taxonomies of dispersion simulation results, and (iii) a feedback-control based fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm. These tools provide means for the continuous verification of dispersion simulation codes while tolerating timing faults caused by disturbances in the underlying computational environment and will thus help increase the reliability and trustworthiness of DSNE systems in missioncritical

  2. Reliability of decision-support systems for nuclear emergency management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ionescu, Tudor B.

    2013-08-15

    Decision support systems for nuclear emergency management (DSNE) are currently used worldwide to assist decision makers in taking emergency response countermeasures in case of accidental releases of radioactive materials from nuclear facilities. The present work has been motivated by the fact that, up until now, DSNE systems have not been regarded as safetycritical software systems, such as embedded software currently being used in vehicles and aircraft. The core of any DSNE system is represented by the different simulation codes linked together to form the dispersion simulation workflow. These codes require input emission and meteorological data to produce forecasts of the atmospheric dispersion of radioactive pollutants and other substances. However, the reliability of the system not only depends on the trustworthiness of the measured (or generated) input data but also on the reliability of the simulation codes used. The main goal of this work is to improve the reliability of DSNE systems by adapting current state of the art methods from the domain of software reliability engineering to the case of atmospheric dispersion simulation codes. The current approach is based on the design by diversity principle for improving the reliability of codes and the trustworthiness of results as well as on a flexible fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm for ensuring the maximum availability of the system. The author's contribution is represented by (i) an acceptance test for dispersion simulation results, (ii) an adjudication algorithm (voter) based on comparing taxonomies of dispersion simulation results, and (iii) a feedback-control based fault-tolerant workflow scheduling algorithm. These tools provide means for the continuous verification of dispersion simulation codes while tolerating timing faults caused by disturbances in the underlying computational environment and will thus help increase the reliability and trustworthiness of DSNE systems in missioncritical

  3. Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

  4. Rainfall-Runoff and Water-Balance Models for Management of the Fena Valley Reservoir, Guam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Chiu W.

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and a generalized water-balance model were calibrated and verified for use in estimating future availability of water in the Fena Valley Reservoir in response to various combinations of water withdrawal rates and rainfall conditions. Application of PRMS provides a physically based method for estimating runoff from the Fena Valley Watershed during the annual dry season, which extends from January through May. Runoff estimates from the PRMS are used as input to the water-balance model to estimate change in water levels and storage in the reservoir. A previously published model was calibrated for the Maulap and Imong River watersheds using rainfall data collected outside of the watershed. That model was applied to the Almagosa River watershed by transferring calibrated parameters and coefficients because information on daily diversions at the Almagosa Springs upstream of the gaging station was not available at the time. Runoff from the ungaged land area was not modeled. For this study, the availability of Almagosa Springs diversion data allowed the calibration of PRMS for the Almagosa River watershed. Rainfall data collected at the Almagosa rain gage since 1992 also provided better estimates of rainfall distribution in the watershed. In addition, the discontinuation of pan-evaporation data collection in 1998 required a change in the evapotranspiration estimation method used in the PRMS model. These reasons prompted the update of the PRMS for the Fena Valley Watershed. Simulated runoff volume from the PRMS compared reasonably with measured values for gaging stations on Maulap, Almagosa, and Imong Rivers, tributaries to the Fena Valley Reservoir. On the basis of monthly runoff simulation for the dry seasons included in the entire simulation period (1992-2001), the total volume of runoff can be predicted within -3.66 percent at Maulap River, within 5.37 percent at Almagosa River, and within 10

  5. Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2013-04-01

    Water resources systems are operated, mostly, using a set of pre-defined rules not regarding, usually, to an optimal allocation in terms of water use or economic benefits, but to historical and institutional reasons. These operating policies are reproduced, commonly, as hedging rules, pack rules or zone-based operations, and simulation models can be used to test their performance under a wide range of hydrological and/or socio-economic hypothesis. Despite the high degree of acceptation and testing that these models have achieved, the actual operation of water resources systems hardly follows all the time the pre-defined rules with the consequent uncertainty on the system performance. Real-world reservoir operation is very complex, affected by input uncertainty (imprecision in forecast inflow, seepage and evaporation losses, etc.), filtered by the reservoir operator's experience and natural risk-aversion, while considering the different physical and legal/institutional constraints in order to meet the different demands and system requirements. The aim of this work is to expose a fuzzy logic approach to derive and assess the historical operation of a system. This framework uses a fuzzy rule-based system to reproduce pre-defined rules and also to match as close as possible the actual decisions made by managers. After built up, the fuzzy rule-based system can be integrated in a water resources management model, making possible to assess the system performance at the basin scale. The case study of the Mijares basin (eastern Spain) is used to illustrate the method. A reservoir operating curve regulates the two main reservoir releases (operated in a conjunctive way) with the purpose of guaranteeing a high realiability of supply to the traditional irrigation districts with higher priority (more senior demands that funded the reservoir construction). A fuzzy rule-based system has been created to reproduce the operating curve's performance, defining the system state (total

  6. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: A choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer; Michael S. Hand; David E. Calkin; Tyron J. Venn; Matthew P. Thompson

    2013-01-01

    Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risk aversion, and risk seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers...

  7. The Protected Areas Visitor Impact Management (PAVIM) framework: A simplified process for making management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, T.A.; Marion, J.L.

    2002-01-01

    Ecotourism and protected area visitation in Central and South America have resulted in ecological impacts, which some protected areas managers have addressed by employing visitor impact management frameworks. In this paper, we propose the Protected Area Visitor Impact Management (PAVIM) framework as an alternative to carrying capacity and other frameworks such as Limits of Acceptable Change. We use a set of evaluation criteria to compare the relative positive and negative attributes of carrying capacity, other decision-making frameworks and the new framework, within the context of their actual and potential use in Central and South America. Positive attributes of PAVIM include simplicity, flexibility, cost effectiveness, timeliness, and incorporating input from stakeholders and local residents. Negative attributes include diminished objectivity and cultural sensitivity issues. Further research and application of PAVIM are recommended.

  8. Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmperis, Athanasios C., E-mail: athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece); Army Corps of Engineers, Hellenic Army General Staff, Ministry of Defence (Greece); Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece)

    2013-05-15

    Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.

  9. The Decision Tree for Teaching Management of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knaggs, Sara J.; And Others

    1974-01-01

    A 'decision tree' consists of an outline of the patient's symptoms and a logic for decision and action. It is felt that this approach to the decisionmaking process better facilitates each learner's application of his own level of knowledge and skills. (Author)

  10. Identification and assessment of potential water quality impact factors for drinking-water reservoirs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Qing; Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Lin, Yi; Li, Jun; Gan, Muye; Ma, Ligang; Hong, Yang

    2014-06-10

    Various reservoirs have been serving as the most important drinking water sources in Zhejiang Province, China, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and severe river pollution. Unfortunately, rapid urbanization and industrialization have been continuously challenging the water quality of the drinking-water reservoirs. The identification and assessment of potential impacts is indispensable in water resource management and protection. This study investigates the drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province to better understand the potential impact on water quality. Altogether seventy-three typical drinking reservoirs in Zhejiang Province encompassing various water storage levels were selected and evaluated. Using fifty-two reservoirs as training samples, the classification and regression tree (CART) method and sixteen comprehensive variables, including six sub-sets (land use, population, socio-economy, geographical features, inherent characteristics, and climate), were adopted to establish a decision-making model for identifying and assessing their potential impacts on drinking-water quality. The water quality class of the remaining twenty-one reservoirs was then predicted and tested based on the decision-making model, resulting in a water quality class attribution accuracy of 81.0%. Based on the decision rules and quantitative importance of the independent variables, industrial emissions was identified as the most important factor influencing the water quality of reservoirs; land use and human habitation also had a substantial impact on water quality. The results of this study provide insights into the factors impacting the water quality of reservoirs as well as basic information for protecting reservoir water resources.

  11. Decision management for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberds, W.J.; Haerer, H.A. [Golder Associates, Inc., Redmond, WA (United States); Winterfeldt, D.V. [Decision Insights, Laguna Beach, CA (United States)

    1992-04-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is in the process of developing estimates for the radiation doses that individuals and population groups may have received as a result of past activities at the Hanford Reservation in Eastern Washington. A formal decision-aiding methodology has been developed to assist the HEDR Project in making significant and defensible decisions regarding how this study will be conducted. These decisions relate primarily to policy (e.g., the appropriate level of public participation in the study) and specific technical aspects (e.g., the appropriate domain and depth of the study), and may have significant consequences with respect to technical results, costs, and public acceptability.

  12. Decision management for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roberds, W.J.; Haerer, H.A.; Winterfeldt, D.V.

    1992-04-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project is in the process of developing estimates for the radiation doses that individuals and population groups may have received as a result of past activities at the Hanford Reservation in Eastern Washington. A formal decision-aiding methodology has been developed to assist the HEDR Project in making significant and defensible decisions regarding how this study will be conducted. These decisions relate primarily to policy (e.g., the appropriate level of public participation in the study) and specific technical aspects (e.g., the appropriate domain and depth of the study), and may have significant consequences with respect to technical results, costs, and public acceptability

  13. Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

    2013-01-01

    We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

  14. Risk-Based Decision Support of Water Resource Management Alternatives

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    West, Paul D; Trainor, Timothy E

    2006-01-01

    .... A model is presented that combines a new risk assessment methodology with traditional decision-making tools to enable systems engineers to capture the full spectrum of operational risks during the design process...

  15. Decision Support System for Management of Military Constructions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Boukraa, Adel

    2004-01-01

    .... Architecture for a decision support system was then developed to provide the necessary automation support and a prototype for the user interface of the proposed system was constructed to evaluate the architectural design. The proposal software will improve the decision making ability of the leader of this organization and the heads of each department. It will make the routine tasks easier, and provide the necessary and accurate data in a timely manner.

  16. Modular analytics management architecture for interoperability and decision support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marotta, Stephen; Metzger, Max; Gorman, Joe; Sliva, Amy

    2016-05-01

    The Dual Node Decision Wheels (DNDW) architecture is a new approach to information fusion and decision support systems. By combining cognitive systems engineering organizational analysis tools, such as decision trees, with the Dual Node Network (DNN) technical architecture for information fusion, the DNDW can align relevant data and information products with an organization's decision-making processes. In this paper, we present the Compositional Inference and Machine Learning Environment (CIMLE), a prototype framework based on the principles of the DNDW architecture. CIMLE provides a flexible environment so heterogeneous data sources, messaging frameworks, and analytic processes can interoperate to provide the specific information required for situation understanding and decision making. It was designed to support the creation of modular, distributed solutions over large monolithic systems. With CIMLE, users can repurpose individual analytics to address evolving decision-making requirements or to adapt to new mission contexts; CIMLE's modular design simplifies integration with new host operating environments. CIMLE's configurable system design enables model developers to build analytical systems that closely align with organizational structures and processes and support the organization's information needs.

  17. An Exploratory Study Investigating How and Why Managers Use Tablets to Support Managerial Decision-Making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xiao

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Managers are often mobile and a large proportion of their work is dealing with decisions. Although many managers currently use tablet computers in their work, there is little research on the use of tablets for managerial decision-support. This exploratory study aims to investigate the ways in which managers use tablets to support their decision-making and the reasons why they do so. Using Task-Technology Fit theory, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 managers, 17 of whom used tablets for their work-related decision-making. The study reveals managers’ tablet usage patterns in terms of location, tablet applications, decision activities and types. This study has also found that a range of tablet characteristics and decision-task characteristics affect managers’ use of tablets to support decision-making at work. This exploratory study contributes to both academia and industry by providing evidence on the tablet decision-support area, and affording organisations, tablet vendors and tablet application developers informative findings for further improvement in the provision of tablet-based decision support.

  18. Analysis and Management of Animal Populations: Modeling, Estimation and Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, B.K.; Nichols, J.D.; Conroy, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This book deals with the processes involved in making informed decisions about the management of animal populations. It covers the modeling of population responses to management actions, the estimation of quantities needed in the modeling effort, and the application of these estimates and models to the development of sound management decisions. The book synthesizes and integrates in a single volume the methods associated with these themes, as they apply to ecological assessment and conservation of animal populations. KEY FEATURES * Integrates population modeling, parameter estimation and * decision-theoretic approaches to management in a single, cohesive framework * Provides authoritative, state-of-the-art descriptions of quantitative * approaches to modeling, estimation and decision-making * Emphasizes the role of mathematical modeling in the conduct of science * and management * Utilizes a unifying biological context, consistent mathematical notation, * and numerous biological examples

  19. Design Features behind Success of the Ecosystem Management Decision Support System and Future Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Reynolds

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Ecosystem Management Decision Support (EMDS system is an application framework for designing and implementing spatially enabled knowledge-based decision support systems for environmental analysis and planning at any geographic scale(s. The system integrates state-of-the-art geographic information system, as well as knowledge-based reasoning and decision modeling, technologies to provide decision support for the adaptive management process of ecosystem management. It integrates a logic engine to perform landscape evaluations, and a decision engine for developing management priorities. The logic component: (1 reasons about large, abstract, multi-faceted ecosystem management problems; (2 performs useful evaluations with incomplete information; (3 evaluates the influence of missing information, and (4 determines priorities for missing information. The planning component determines priorities for management activities, taking into account not only ecosystem condition, but also criteria that account for logistical concerns of potential management actions. Both components include intuitive diagnostic features that facilitate communicating modeling results to a broad audience. Features of the system design that have figured in its success over the past 20 years are highlighted, together with design features planned for the next several versions needed to provide spatial decision support for adaptive management under climate change.

  20. The role of information systems in management decision making-an theoretical approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PhD. Associate Professor Department of Management & Informatics Mihane Berisha-Namani

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In modern conditions of globalisation and development of information technology, information processing activities have come to be seen as essential to successful of businesses and organizations. Information has become essential to make decisions and crucial asset in organisations, whereas information systems is technology required for information processing. The application of information systems technology in business and organisations has opened up new possibilities for running and managing organisations, as well as has improved management decision making. The purpose of this paper is to give an understanding of the role that information systems have in management decision making and to discuss the possibilities how managers of organisations can make best use of information systems. The paper starts with identifying the functions of management and managerial roles and continue with information systems usage in three levels of decision making. It specifically addresses the way how information systems can help managers reduce uncertainty in decision making and includes some important implications of information systems usage for managers. Thus, this study provide a framework of effective use of information systems generally and offers an alternative approach to investigate the impact that information systems technology have in management decision making specifically

  1. Managed care and clinical decision-making in child and adolescent behavioral health: provider perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanos, Philip T; Garcia, Christine I; Hansell, Stephen; Rosato, Mark G; Minsky, Shula

    2003-03-01

    This study investigated how managed care affects clinical decision-making in a behavioral health care system. Providers serving children and adolescents under both managed and unmanaged care (n = 28) were interviewed about their awareness of differences between the benefit arrangements, how benefits affect clinical decision-making, outcomes and quality of care; and satisfaction with care. Quantitative and qualitative findings indicated that providers saw both advantages and disadvantages to managed care. Although most providers recognized the advantages of managed care in increasing efficiency, many were concerned that administrative pressures associated with managed care compromise service quality.

  2. Shared decision-making in medication management: development of a training intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stead, Ute; Morant, Nicola; Ramon, Shulamit

    2017-08-01

    Shared decision-making is a collaborative process in which clinicians and patients make treatment decisions together. Although it is considered essential to patient-centred care, the adoption of shared decision-making into routine clinical practice has been slow, and there is a need to increase implementation. This paper describes the development and delivery of a training intervention to promote shared decision-making in medication management in mental health as part of the Shared Involvement in Medication Management Education (ShIMME) project. Three stakeholder groups (service users, care coordinators and psychiatrists) received training in shared decision-making, and their feedback was evaluated. The programme was mostly well received, with all groups rating interaction with peers as the best aspect of the training. This small-scale pilot shows that it is feasible to deliver training in shared decision-making to several key stakeholders. Larger studies will be required to assess the effectiveness of such training.

  3. Multi-criteria decision models for forestry and natural resources management: an annotated bibliography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph E. de Steiguer; Leslie Liberti; Albert Schuler; Bruce Hansen

    2003-01-01

    Foresters and natural resource managers must balance conflicting objectives when developing land-management plans. Conflicts may encompass economic, environmental, social, cultural, technical, and aesthetic objectives. Selecting the best combination of management uses from numerous objectives is difficult and challenging. Multi-Criteria Decision Models (MCDM) provide a...

  4. 75 FR 10308 - Fire Management Plan, Final Environmental Impact Statement, Record of Decision, Grand Canyon...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-05

    ... Doc No: 2010-4414] DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR National Park Service Fire Management Plan, Final... Impact Statement for the Fire Management Plan, Grand Canyon National Park. SUMMARY: Pursuant to the... availability of the Record of Decision for the Fire Management Plan, Grand Canyon National Park, Arizona. On...

  5. Evaluating the best available social science for natural resource management decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Susan Charnley; Courtney Carothers; Terre Satterfield; Arielle Levine; Melissa R. Poe; Karma Norman; Jamie Donatuto; Sara Jo Breslow; Michael B. Mascia; Phillip S. Levin; Xavier Basurto; Christina C. Hicks; Carlos García-Quijano; Kevin St. Martin

    2017-01-01

    Increasing recognition of the human dimensions of natural resource management issues, and of social and ecological sustainability and resilience as being inter-related, highlights the importance of applying social science to natural resource management decision-making. Moreover, a number of laws and regulations require natural resource management agencies to consider...

  6. STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PROJECTS, AIMED AT THE BIM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burneo Valarezo Servio

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in the management of projects aimed at Building Information Modeling, represents the main action to be developed during the development of the investment lifecycle, from inception to the development of life, decision marking is present in all phases of project management. In the Fund's shares of the production system by projects, decision making integrated from the priorities of the projects play an important role in the success of the company. The present work has as objective the development of a procedure for decision making during the life cycle of the project, the conditions for its implementation and the process for its development, with the purpose of raising their quality, to ensure decision making effective, consistent with the current development of the techniques of management.

  7. Decision support modeling for sustainable food logistics management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soysal, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary For the last two decades, food logistics systems have seen the transition from traditional Logistics Management (LM) to Food Logistics Management (FLM), and successively, to Sustainable Food Logistics Management (SFLM). Accordingly, food industry has been subject to the recent challenges of

  8. A Practical Decision-Analysis Process for Forest Ecosystem Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Michael Rauscher; F. Thomas Lloyd; David L. Loftis; Mark J. Twery

    2000-01-01

    Many authors have pointed out the need to firm up the 'fuzzy' ecosystem management paradigm and develop operationally practical processes to allow forest managers to accommodate more effectively the continuing rapid change in societal perspectives and goals. There are three spatial scales where clear, precise, practical ecosystem management processes are...

  9. Decision support modeling for sustainable food logistics management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soysal, M.

    2015-01-01

    Summary

    For the last two decades, food logistics systems have seen the transition from traditional Logistics Management (LM) to Food Logistics Management (FLM), and successively, to Sustainable Food Logistics Management (SFLM). Accordingly, food industry has been subject to the recent

  10. Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

    2009-01-01

    Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives

  11. Use of structured decision making to identify monitoring variables and management priorities for salt marsh ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neckles, Hilary A.; Lyons, James E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Shriver, W. Gregory; Adamowicz, Susan C.

    2015-01-01

    Most salt marshes in the USA have been degraded by human activities, and coastal managers are faced with complex choices among possible actions to restore or enhance ecosystem integrity. We applied structured decision making (SDM) to guide selection of monitoring variables and management priorities for salt marshes within the National Wildlife Refuge System in the northeastern USA. In general, SDM is a systematic process for decomposing a decision into its essential elements. We first engaged stakeholders in clarifying regional salt marsh decision problems, defining objectives and attributes to evaluate whether objectives are achieved, and developing a pool of alternative management actions for achieving objectives. Through this process, we identified salt marsh attributes that were applicable to monitoring National Wildlife Refuges on a regional scale and that targeted management needs. We then analyzed management decisions within three salt marsh units at Prime Hook National Wildlife Refuge, coastal Delaware, as a case example of prioritizing management alternatives. Values for salt marsh attributes were estimated from 2 years of baseline monitoring data and expert opinion. We used linear value modeling to aggregate multiple attributes into a single performance score for each alternative, constrained optimization to identify alternatives that maximized total management benefits subject to refuge-wide cost constraints, and used graphical analysis to identify the optimal set of alternatives for the refuge. SDM offers an efficient, transparent approach for integrating monitoring into management practice and improving the quality of management decisions.

  12. School-Based Management: An Approach to Decision-Making Quality in Egyptian General Secondary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmelegy, Reda Ibrahim

    2015-01-01

    The current research aims at clarifying how school-based management (SBM) can contribute to achieve the decision-making quality in Egyptian general secondary schools and determine the requirements of quality decision-making. It depends on the descriptive method in order to acknowledge the basics of the SBM and its relationship with the quality of…

  13. Decision support systems for ecosystem management: An evaluation of existing systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. Todd Mowrer; Klaus Barber; Joe Campbell; Nick Crookston; Cathy Dahms; John Day; Jim Laacke; Jim Merzenich; Steve Mighton; Mike Rauscher; Rick Sojda; Joyce Thompson; Peter Trenchi; Mark Twery

    1997-01-01

    This report evaluated 24 computer-aided decision support systems (DSS) that can support management decision-making in forest ecosystems. It compares the scope of each system, spatial capabilities, computational methods, development status, input and output requirements, user support availability, and system performance. Questionnaire responses from the DSS developers (...

  14. DASEES: A Tripartite Decision Analysis Framework to Achieve Sustainable Environment, Economy & Society Growth and Management Goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many of Societies management and growth decisions are often made without a balanced consideration of pertinent factors from environmental, economic and societal perspectives. All three of these areas are key players in many of the decisions facing societies as they strive to ope...

  15. Intelligent Decision Support and Big Data for Logistics and Supply Chain Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voss, Stefan; Sebastian, Hans-Jürgen; Pahl, Julia

    2017-01-01

    Intelligent Decision Support and Big Data for Logistics and Supply Chain Management” features theoretical developments, real-world applications and information systems related to solving decision problems in logistics and supply chain management. Methods include optimization, heuristics......, metaheuristics and matheuristics, simulation, agent technologies, and descriptive methods. In a sense, we were and are representing the future of logistics over the years....

  16. Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey G. Borchers

    2005-01-01

    The risks, uncertainties, and social conflicts surrounding uncharacteristic wildfire and forest resource values have defied conventional approaches to planning and decision-making. Paradoxically, the adoption of technological innovations such as risk assessment, decision analysis, and landscape simulation models by land management organizations has been limited. The...

  17. Principles of Classroom Management: A Professional Decision-Making Model, 7th Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, James; Nolan, James F.

    2014-01-01

    This text takes a decision-making model approach to classroom management. It provides teachers with a very practical system to influence students to choose to behave productively and to strive for academic success. This widely used text presents an array of decision-making options that guide teachers in developing positive, pro-social classroom…

  18. Intelligent decision making in quality management theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Yanık, Seda

    2016-01-01

      This book presents recently developed intelligent techniques with applications and theory in the area of quality management. The involved applications of intelligence include techniques such as fuzzy sets, neural networks, genetic algorithms, etc. The book consists of classical quality management topics dealing with intelligent techniques for solving the complex quality management problems. The book will serve as an excellent reference for quality managers, researchers, lecturers and postgraduate students in this area. The authors of the chapters are well-known researchers in the area of quality management.  .

  19. Bringing the ecosystem services concept into marine management decisions, supporting ecosystems-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweddle, J. F.; Byg, A.; Davies, I.; Gubbins, M.; Irvine, K.; Kafas, A.; Kenter, J.; MacDonald, A.; Murray, R. B. O.; Potts, T.; Slater, A. M.; Wright, K.; Scott, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    The marine environment is under increasing use, putting pressure on marine ecosystems and increasing competition for space. New activities (e.g. renewable energy developments), evolving marine policies (e.g. implementation of marine protected areas), and climate change may drive changes in biodiversity and resulting ecosystem services (ES) that society and business utilise from coastal and marine systems. A process is needed that integrates ecological assessment of changes with stakeholder perceptions and valuation of ES, whilst balancing ease of application with the ability to deal with complex social-economic-ecological issues. The project "Cooperative participatory assessment of the impact of renewable technology on ecosystem services: CORPORATES" involved natural and social scientists, law and policy experts, and marine managers, with the aim of promoting more integrated decision making using ES concepts in marine management. CORPORATES developed a process to bring ES concepts into stakeholders' awareness. The interactive process, involving 2 workshops, employs interludes of knowledge exchange by experts on ecological processes underpinning ES and on law and policy. These enable mapping of benefits linked to activities, participatory system modelling, and deliberation of policy impacts on different sectors. The workshops were attended by industry representatives, regulatory/advisory partners, and other stakeholders (NGOs, SMEs, recreationalists, local government). Mixed sector groups produced new insights into links between activities and ES, and highlighted cross-sector concerns. Here we present the aspects of the process that successfully built shared understanding between industry and stakeholders of inter-linkages and interactions between ES, benefits, activities, and economic and cultural values. These methods provide an ES-based decision-support model for exchanging societal-ecological knowledge and providing stakeholder interaction in marine planning

  20. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation, San Diego decision support system analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Decision Support System Analysis for the United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the San Diego Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstration. The ICM pr...

  1. A Decision Support System for Managing a Diverse Portfolio of Technology Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper describes an automated decision support system designed to facilitate the management of a continuously changing portfolio of technologies as new technologies are deployed and older technologies are decommissioned.

  2. Integrated corridor management initiative : demonstration phase evaluation - Dallas decision support system analysis test plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report presents the test plan for conducting the Decision Support System (DSS) Analysis for the : United States Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT) evaluation of the Dallas U.S. 75 Integrated : Corridor Management (ICM) Initiative Demonstrat...

  3. A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2017-01-01

    bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate...... change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being...... optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no...

  4. Fusion methodologies in crisis management higher level fusion and decision making

    CERN Document Server

    Scott, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This book emphasizes a contemporary view on the role of higher level fusion in designing crisis management systems. It provides the formal foundations, architecture, and implementation strategies required for building dynamic current and future situational pictures. It goes on to discuss the state-of-the-art computational approaches to designing such processes and their inherent challenges. This book integrates recent advances in decision theory with those in fusion methodology to define an end-to-end framework for decision support in crisis management. The text discusses modern fusion and decision support methods for dealing with heterogeneous and often unreliable, low fidelity, contradictory, and redundant data and information, as well as rare, unknown, unconventional or even unimaginable critical situations. The book also examines the role of context in situation management, cognitive aspects of decision making and situation management, approaches to domain representation, visualization, as well as the rol...

  5. Decision Support for Water Resource Management: Integration of Water Control and Water Quality Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kennedy, R

    2000-01-01

    ... management as a means to enhance stewardship and protect the Nation's water resources. Because of this, new approaches to decision support that integrate across political, technological, social, economic, and physical considerations are needed...

  6. Waste Management Decision-Making Process During a Homeland Security Incident Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    A step-by-step guide on how to make waste management-related decisions including how waste can be minimized, collected and treated, as well as where waste can be sent for staging, storage and final disposal.

  7. Decision Support for Software Process Management Teams: An Intelligent Software Agent Approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Church, Lori

    2000-01-01

    ... to market, eliminate redundancy, and ease job stress. This thesis proposes a conceptual model for software process management decision support in the form of an intelligent software agent network...

  8. Reconsidering information management roles and capabilities in disaster response decision-making units

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

    2009-01-01

    When disaster strikes, the emerging task environment requires relief agencies to transform from autonomous mono-disciplinary organizations into interdependent multidisciplinary decision-making units. Evaluation studies reveal that adaptation of information management to the changing task environment

  9. Statistical Decision Support Tools for System-Oriented Runway Management, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The feasibility of developing a statistical decision support system for traffic flow management in the terminal area and runway load balancing was demonstrated in...

  10. A Belief Network Decision Support Method Applied to Aerospace Surveillance and Battle Management Projects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Staker, R

    2003-01-01

    This report demonstrates the application of a Bayesian Belief Network decision support method for Force Level Systems Engineering to a collection of projects related to Aerospace Surveillance and Battle Management...

  11. A novel sustainable decision making model for municipal solid waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hung, M.-L.; Ma Hwongwen; Yang, W.-F.

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews several models developed to support decision making in municipal solid waste management (MSWM). The concepts underlying sustainable MSWM models can be divided into two categories: one incorporates social factors into decision making methods, and the other includes public participation in the decision-making process. The public is only apprised or takes part in discussion, and has little effect on decision making in most research efforts. Few studies have considered public participation in the decision-making process, and the methods have sought to strike a compromise between concerned criteria, not between stakeholders. However, the source of the conflict arises from the stakeholders' complex web of value. Such conflict affects the feasibility of implementing any decision. The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for MSWM to overcome these shortcomings. The proposed model combines multicriteria decision making (MCDM) and a consensus analysis model (CAM). The CAM is built up to aid in decision-making when MCDM methods are utilized and, subsequently, a novel sustainable decision making model for MSWM is developed. The main feature of CAM is the assessment of the degree of consensus between stakeholders for particular alternatives. A case study for food waste management in Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the practicality of this model

  12. An Evaluation on Factors Influencing Decision making for Malaysia Disaster Management: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubir, S. N. A.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Mustapha, K. N. M.; Che Muda, Z.; Ghazali, A.; Hakimie, H.

    2017-12-01

    For the past few years, natural disaster has been the subject of debate in disaster management especially in flood disaster. Each year, natural disaster results in significant loss of life, destruction of homes and public infrastructure, and economic hardship. Hence, an effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life saving. The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic to decision making for flood disaster management in Malaysia. The key elements of decision making in the disaster management were studied based on the literature. Questionnaire surveys were administered among lead agencies at East Coast of Malaysia in the state of Kelantan and Pahang. A total of 307 valid responses had been obtained for further analysis. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were carried out to analyse the measurement model involved in the study. The CFA for second-order reflective and first-order reflective measurement model indicates that approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic have a significant and direct effect on decision making during disaster. The results from this study showed that decision- making during disaster is an important element for disaster management to necessitate a successful collaborative decision making. The measurement model is accepted to proceed with further analysis known as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and can be assessed for the future research.

  13. Decision-theoretic planning of clinical patient management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peek, Niels Bastiaan

    2000-01-01

    When a doctor is treating a patient, he is constantly facing decisions. From the externally visible signs and symptoms he must establish a hypothesis of what might be wrong with the patient; then he must decide whether additional diagnostic procedures are required to verify this hypothesis,

  14. Purchase decision involvement: Event management segments and related event behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodney B. Warnick; David C. Bojanic

    2012-01-01

    The goal of this research was to examine the relationships between different levels of event purchase decision involvement (PDI) segments and their respective event behaviors (e.g., expenditures, travel behavior, event consumption and satisfaction). The specific purpose was to answer two major research questions: 1) Can PDI identify different levels or segments of...

  15. A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotson, G Scott; Hudson, Naomi L; Maier, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management.

  16. 75 FR 6257 - Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan, Loudon, Meigs, Rhea, and Roane Counties, TN

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-02-08

    ... impacts that could occur. Comments expressed concerns about the importance of water quality and... recommended that a 100-foot-buffer strip of natural vegetation and ground cover be retained between the... management buffer zones of 50 feet are established on qualifying shoreline access approvals when TVA-managed...

  17. The art of management decision making: from intuition to evidence-based medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheth, Sameer A; Kwon, Churl-Su; Barker, Fred G

    2012-04-01

    This article summarizes available evidence on various management options for vestibular schwannoma as they relate to the decision-making strategies used in selection. After a brief consideration of individual options, the literature directly comparing two or more management options is examined, noting the level of evidence supporting their claims. A discussion of the strategies developed to guide decision making follows. The article closes with a summary of the evidence-based findings and suggestions for further research. The focus is on management of sporadic, unilateral vestibular schwannomas, because patients with neurofibromatosis type 2 pose different management problems best discussed separately. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Spatial analysis in recreation resource management for the Berlin Lake Reservoir Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwardo, H. A.; Koryak, M.; Miller, M. S.; Wilson, H.; Merry, C. J.

    1984-01-01

    Spatial analysis of geographic information systems and the acquisition and use of remotely-sensed data within the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is an emerging Technology Work units have been developed under te Remote Sensing Research and Development Program, which are most relevant to the productive needs of the Corps in both the military and civil works missions. Corps participation in the SPOT simulation champaign is one such example of this research. This paper describes the application of spatial analysis and remote sensing in recreation resource managmaster planning at the Berlin Lake Reservoir Project within the Pittsburgh District. SPOT simulator data was acquired over Berlin Lake, Site No. 10, on July 8, 1983. The first part of this paper describes the background of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Berlin Lake project, the geographic information system being developed, and the planned use of SPOT and similar data. The remainder of the paper describes the results on an analysis of the simulated SPOT data conducted at the NASA Goddard Institut for Space Studies.

  19. The integration of ecological risk assessment and structured decision making into watershed management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlson, Dan W; Serveiss, Victor B

    2007-01-01

    Watershed management processes continue to call for more science and improved decision making that take into account the full range of stakeholder perspectives. Increasingly, the core principles of ecological risk assessment (i.e., the development and use of assessment endpoints and conceptual models, conducting exposure and effects analysis) are being incorporated and adapted in innovative ways to meet the call for more science. Similarly, innovative approaches to adapting decision analysis tools and methods for incorporating stakeholder concerns in complex natural resource management decisions are being increasingly applied. Here, we present an example of the integration of ecological risk assessment with decision analysis in the development of a watershed management plan for the Greater Vancouver Water District in British Columbia, Canada. Assessment endpoints were developed, ecological inventory data were collected, and watershed models were developed to characterize the existing and future condition of 3 watersheds in terms of the potential risks to water quality. Stressors to water quality include sedimentation processes (landslides, streambank erosion) and forest disturbance (wildfire, major insect or disease outbreak). Three landscape-level risk management alternatives were developed to reflect different degrees of management intervention. Each alternative was evaluated under different scenarios and analyzed by explicitly examining value-based trade-offs among water quality, environmental, financial, and social endpoints. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the integration of ecological risk assessment and decision analysis approaches can support decision makers in watershed management.

  20. Factors Influencing Risk Management Decision of Small and Medium Scale Enterprises in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anselm Komla Abotsi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This research seeks to study the factors that enhance or preclude owners of SMEs in Ghana in making risk management decisions. The study was conducted with managers of SMEs in four regions in Ghana. The researchers adopted a quantitative approach and employed STATA 10 and SPSS version 20 in the analysis. Stratified and simple random sampling techniques were used to select the sample units. The probit model was used in the analysis of data. A total of 447 SMEs were sampled for the study, with at least 111 from each of the selected regions. The probit results show that the demographic factors indicate a positive influence on the likelihood that managers will take risk management decisions. All of the business related demographic factors are significant at various levels and positive, except for risk-loving. The economically related factors, such as the estimated amount at risk, the estimated cost of risk management and the estimated total monthly income after tax all have a positive influence on risk management decision making. However, government and tax policies are perceived to negatively influence risk management decisions by managers. We recommend that institutions working closely with SMEs acquire the expertise to train the managers of SMEs on risk management practices.

  1. Waterproofing with polymeric geo synthetic barriers (GBR-P) in the manual for the design, construction, management and maintenance of reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanco, M.; Cea, J. C.; Garcia, F.; Sanchez, F. J.; Castillo, F.; Mora, J.; Crespo, M. A.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a part of Manual for the Design, Construction, Management and Maintenance of Reservoirs relative to waterproofing with Polymeric Geo synthetic Barriers (GBR-P). the nature materials of geo membranes is studied also theirs characteristics and specifications. (Author) 26 refs.

  2. Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

    2012-04-01

    Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other

  3. Decision Support Systems for Research and Management in Advanced Life Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriquez, Luis F.

    2004-01-01

    Decision support systems have been implemented in many applications including strategic planning for battlefield scenarios, corporate decision making for business planning, production planning and control systems, and recommendation generators like those on Amazon.com(Registered TradeMark). Such tools are reviewed for developing a similar tool for NASA's ALS Program. DSS are considered concurrently with the development of the OPIS system, a database designed for chronicling of research and development in ALS. By utilizing the OPIS database, it is anticipated that decision support can be provided to increase the quality of decisions by ALS managers and researchers.

  4. Community-based management and interrelations between different technology adoption decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne

    Community-based management (CBM) of village poultry aims to foster development and reduce poverty in Benin by disseminating five technologies for improving village poultry farming. We develop a theoretical model to analyze multiple technology adoption decisions that takes into account...... the interrelations between the technologies. Estimates from multivariate probit models indicate significant interrelations between the five adoption decisions. We show how the estimation results, and particularly the different types of marginal effects, can be utilized to deeply analyze the interrelations between...... adoption decisions. CBM successfully promoted the adoption of various technologies. Some adoption decisions indicate farmers’ general openness towards new technologies....

  5. Why don't Practitioners use Reservoir Optimization Methods? Results from a Survey of UK Water Managers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobson, B.; Pianosi, F.; Wagener, T.

    2016-12-01

    Extensive scientific literature exists on the study of how operation decisions in water resource systems can be made more effectively through the use of optimization methods. However, to the best of the authors' knowledge, there is little in the literature on the implementation of these optimization methods by practitioners. We have performed a survey among UK reservoir operators to assess the current state of method implementation in practice. We also ask questions to assess the potential for implementation of operation optimization. This will help academics to target industry in their current research, identify any misconceptions in industry about the area and open new branches of research for which there is an unsatisfied demand. The UK is a good case study because the regulatory framework is changing to impose "no build" solutions for supply issues, as well as planning across entire water resource systems rather than individual components. Additionally there is a high appetite for efficiency due to the water industry's privatization and most operators are part of companies that control multiple water resources, increasing the potential for cooperation and coordination.

  6. Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly technical progress report, September 13--December 12, 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The eighteen 10-acre infill wells which were drilled as part of the field demonstration portion of the project are all currently in service with no operational problems. These wells consist of fourteen producing wells and four injection wells. The producing wells are currently producing a total of approximately 450 bopd, down from a peak rate of 900 bopd. Unit production is currently averaging approximately 2,700 bopd, 12,000 bwpd and 18,000 bwipd. The paper describes progress on hydraulic fracture design, reservoir surveillance, data analysis procedures, and deterministic modeling and simulation.

  7. Does managed care make a difference? Physicians' length of stay decisions under managed and non-managed care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Groenewegen Peter P

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In this study we examined the influence of type of insurance and the influence of managed care in particular, on the length of stay decisions physicians make and on variation in medical practice. Methods We studied lengths of stay for comparable patients who are insured under managed or non-managed care plans. Seven Diagnosis Related Groups were chosen, two medical (COPD and CHF, one surgical (hip replacement and four obstetrical (hysterectomy with and without complications and Cesarean section with and without complications. The 1999, 2000 and 2001 – data from hospitals in New York State were used and analyzed with multilevel analysis. Results Average length of stay does not differ between managed and non-managed care patients. Less variation was found for managed care patients. In both groups, the variation was smaller for DRGs that are easy to standardize than for other DRGs. Conclusion Type of insurance does not affect length of stay. An explanation might be that hospitals have a general policy concerning length of stay, independent of the type of insurance of the patient.

  8. Residue Management: A Computer Program About Conservation Tillage Decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thien, Steve J.

    1986-01-01

    Describes a computer program, Residue Management, which is designed to supplement discussions on the Universal Soil Loss Equation and the impact of tillage on soil properties for introductory soil courses. The program advances the user through three stages of residue management. Information on obtaining the program is also included. (ML)

  9. Essentials of Risk Management. Strategic Decisions. Board Basics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonenstein, Burton; Kumin, Laura A.

    1998-01-01

    This booklet, intended for trustees of institutions of higher education, offers some instruction on the principles of risk management. Introductory information provides a definition of risk management, which is seen as a planning and strategic function, not solely as a financial or safety assessment. Individual sections then address the following…

  10. Chapter 6: Incorporating rural community characteristics into forest management decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindy S. Crandall; Jane L. Harrison; Claire A. Montgomery

    2014-01-01

    As part of the Integrated Landscape Assessment Project, we developed a methodology for managers to include potential community benefits when considering forest management treatments. To do this, we created a watershed impact score that scores each watershed (potential source of wood material) with respect to the communities that are likely to benefit from increased...

  11. Management information systems for electronic warfare command and decision support

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Niekerk, B

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available information to allow them to manage their own spectrum, to identify threats, and to deny adversaries’ use of the spectrum. In this paper, the concepts of integrated electronic warfare and spectrum battle management are introduced, and the relevant information...

  12. Use of a fuzzy decision-making method in evaluating severe accident management strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jae, M.; Moon, J.H.

    2002-01-01

    In developing severe accident management strategies, an engineering decision would be made based on the available data and information that are vague, imprecise and uncertain by nature. These sorts of vagueness and uncertainty are due to lack of knowledge for the severe accident sequences of interest. The fuzzy set theory offers a possibility of handling these sorts of data and information. In this paper, the possibility to apply the decision-making method based on fuzzy set theory to the evaluation of the accident management strategies at a nuclear power plant is scrutinized. The fuzzy decision-making method uses linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers to represent the decision-maker's subjective assessments for the decision alternatives according to the decision criteria. The fuzzy mean operator is used to aggregate the decision-maker's subjective assessments, while the total integral value method is used to rank the decision alternatives. As a case study, the proposed method is applied to evaluating the accident management strategies at a nuclear power plant

  13. Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

    2017-01-01

    Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

  14. North Slope Decision Support for Water Resource Planning and Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schnabel, William; Brumbelow, Kelly

    2013-03-31

    The objective of this project was to enhance the water resource decision-making process with respect to oil and gas exploration/production activities on Alaska’s North Slope. To this end, a web-based software tool was developed to allow stakeholders to assemble, evaluate, and communicate relevant information between and amongst themselves. The software, termed North Slope Decision Support System (NSDSS), is a visually-referenced database that provides a platform for running complex natural system, planning, and optimization models. The NSDSS design was based upon community input garnered during a series of stakeholder workshops, and the end product software is freely available to all stakeholders via the project website. The tool now resides on servers hosted by the UAF Water and Environmental Research Center, and will remain accessible and free-of-charge for all interested stakeholders. The development of the tool fostered new advances in the area of data evaluation and decision support technologies, and the finished product is envisioned to enhance water resource planning activities on Alaska’s North Slope.

  15. Clinical judgment and decision-making in wound assessment and management: is experience enough?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Gemma

    2015-03-01

    The assessment and management of wounds forms a large proportion of community nurses' workload, often requiring judgment and decision-making in complex, challenging and uncertain circumstances. The processes through which nurses form judgments and make decisions within this context are reviewed in this article against existing theories on these subjects. There is variability in wound assessment and management practice which may be attributed to uncertainties within the context, a lack of knowledge in appropriate treatment choices and the inability to correctly value the importance of the clinical information presented. Nurses may be required to draw on intuition to guide their judgments and decision-making by association with experience and expertise. In addition, a step-by-step analytical approach underpinned by an evidence base may be required to ensure accuracy in practice. Developing an understanding of the different theories of judgment and decision-making may facilitate nurses' abilities to reflect on their own decision tasks, thereby enhancing the care provided.

  16. Applications of stable isotopes and radioisotopes in the exploration and reservoir management of Philippine geothermal fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrer, H.P.; Alvis-Isidro, R.R.

    1996-01-01

    The development of indigenous geothermal energy resources is currently one of the primary thrusts of the country's energy program. Presently, the Philippines has a total of geothermal generating capacity of about 1400 MWe. This comprises about 20% of the total energy mix and electricity requirements of the country. By 1998, an additional capacity of about 500 MWe will be commissioned, and the PHilippines would be generating 1900 MWe of electricity from geothermal energy resources. From 1990 to 1993, PNOC EDC (Philippine National Oil Company, Energy Development Corporation) has been granted a research contract by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The Company has also been a recipient since 1991 of an IAEA Technical Assistance on the use of stable isotope techniques in geothermal hydrology. Stable isotopes, particularly 18 O and 2 H, in conjunction with other geochemical parameters and geological and geophysical data, have been used to: a) establish the local meteoric water line; b) determine the origin of geothermal fluids; c) delineate the elevation of recharge of geothermal and ground water systems; d) confirm pre-exploitation hydrochemical models; e) identify physical and chemical processes due to exploitation of the geothermal resource (i.e. reinjection fluid returns, incursion of cold meteoric water, boiling due to pressure drawdown and mixing with acidic steam condensates); and, f) estimate reservoir temperatures. Techniques using radioisotopes, such as 14 C, have also been used for the age-dating of charred wood samples collected from some of our geothermal exploration areas. The detection of 3 H has also been used as an indicator for the incursion of recent cold meteoric water into the geothermal system. Tracer studies using 131 I, have also been previously carried out, in coordination with the Philippine Nuclear Research Institute, to determine local hydrology and flow paths of reinjected water in some of our geothermal fields

  17. Agricultural non-point source pollution management in a reservoir watershed based on ecological network analysis of soil nitrogen cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wen; Cai, Yanpeng; Rong, Qiangqiang; Yang, Zhifeng; Li, Chunhui; Wang, Xuan

    2018-03-01

    The Miyun Reservoir plays a pivotal role in providing drinking water for the city of Beijing. In this research, ecological network analysis and scenario analysis were integrated to explore soil nitrogen cycling of chestnut and Chinese pine forests in the upper basin of the Miyun Reservoir, as well as to seek favorable fertilization modes to reduce agricultural non-point source pollution. Ecological network analysis results showed that (1) the turnover time was 0.04 to 0.37 year in the NH 4 + compartment and were 15.78 to 138.36 years in the organic N compartment; (2) the Finn cycling index and the ratio of indirect to direct flow were 0.73 and 11.92 for the chestnut forest model, respectively. Those of the Chinese pine forest model were 0.88 and 29.23, respectively; and (3) in the chestnut forest model, NO 3 - accounted for 96% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by plant N (2%), NH 4 + (1%), and organic N (1%). In the Chinese pine forest, NH 4 + accounted for 56% of the total soil nitrogen loss, followed by organic N (34%) and NO 3 - (10%). Fertilization mode was identified as the main factor affecting soil N export. To minimize NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs while maintaining the current plant yield (i.e., 7.85e0 kg N/year), a fertilization mode of 162.50 kg N/year offered by manure should be adopted. Whereas, to achieve a maximum plant yield (i.e., 3.35e1 kg N/year) while reducing NH 4 + and NO 3 - outputs, a fertilization mode of 325.00 kg N/year offered by manure should be utilized. This research is of wide suitability to support agricultural non-point source pollution management at the watershed scale.

  18. Building a normative decision support system for clinical and operational risk management in hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornalba, Chiara; Bellazzi, Roberto G; Bellazzi, Riccardo

    2008-09-01

    This paper describes the design and implementation of a decision support system for risk management in hemodialysis (HD) departments. The proposed system exploits a domain ontology to formalize the problem as a Bayesian network. It also relies on a software tool, able to automatically collect HD data, to learn the network conditional probabilities. By merging prior knowledge and the available data, the system allows to estimate risk profiles both for patients and HD departments. The risk management process is completed by an influence diagram that enables scenario analysis to choose the optimal decisions that mitigate a patient's risk. The methods and design of the decision support tool are described in detail, and the derived decision model is presented. Examples and case studies are also shown. The tool is one of the few examples of normative system explicitly conceived to manage operational and clinical risks in health care environments.

  19. An operational decision-making model for the cognitively sensing-thinking manager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, J J

    1992-11-01

    Whereas all managers face decision-making situations, not all managers discharge the decision-making process in the same manner. Individuals possess different personalities that influence how they gather and process information and subsequently make decisions. Research has reported a link between personality type and a preferred cognitive decision-making style. ST personalities prefer structured methods to resolve problems. For ST managers, a three-dimensional decision-making models is proposed. The model is based on the decision-making process initiated by Dewey and evolved by theorists and practitioners over time. Unique to the model is the institution of a second dimension of operational categories. Thus, the decision process is not conducted within a vacuum but within a context defined by the problem to be resolved. A further degree of thoroughness is achieved by unfolding the categorical dimension into sub-categories and conducting the decision-making process at that level. Several additional managerial tools exist that are compatible with the ST cognitive style and that facilitate an effective and efficiency decision process. What does this mean for the practicing health information manager? The manager's first step is to identify his or her personality type. The popularity of the MBTI as an organizational and career counseling tool has received wide acceptance across industries, including health care. The MBTI can be obtained, administered, scored, and interpreted only by trained personnel. Such individuals may be found in human resource and staff development departments; career centers and seminars; and vocational-technical schools, community colleges, and universities.

  20. The Research in Top Management Team Strategic Decision-Making: evolution and intelectual basis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo Paraiso de Campos Serra

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to understand the intellectual structure that connects theories and authors that research strategic decision-making on upper echelons and propose a research agenda for future research on strategic decision-making. We used a bibliometric research of articles published in international journals. A bibliometric analysis of citation and cocitation was conducted on the content studied in the articles of decision making, identifying the most referenced works and the conceptual relations between the work underlying the theme and trends. We identified three theoretical clusters on the subject: the characteristics of the Top Management Team (TMT and how they influence decision making; how environmental factors compromise the decision making, along with the explanatory models and decision-making processes; conflict and allowed to present the current state of the subject and its gaps, and suggestions for future research.

  1. A Probabilistic environmental decision support framework for managing risk and resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallegos, D.P.; Webb, E.K.; Davis, P.A.; Conrad, S.H.

    1996-03-01

    The ability to make cost effective, timely decisions associated with waste management and environmental remediation problems has been the subject of considerable debate in recent years. On one hand, environmental decision makers do not have unlimited resources that they can apply to come to resolution on outstanding and uncertain technical issues. On the other hand, because of the possible impending consequences associated with these types of systems, avoiding making a decision is usually not an alternative either. Therefore, a structured, quantitative process is necessary that will facilitate technically defensible decision making in light of both uncertainty and resource constraints. An environmental decision support framework has been developed to provide a logical structure that defines a cost-effective, traceable, and defensible path to closure on decision regarding compliance and resource allocation. The methodology has been applied effectively to waste disposal problems and is being adapted and implemented in subsurface environmental remediation problems.

  2. A Probabilistic environmental decision support framework for managing risk and resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallegos, D.P.; Webb, E.K.; Davis, P.A.; Conrad, S.H.

    1996-01-01

    The ability to make cost effective, timely decisions associated with waste management and environmental remediation problems has been the subject of considerable debate in recent years. On one hand, environmental decision makers do not have unlimited resources that they can apply to come to resolution on outstanding and uncertain technical issues. On the other hand, because of the possible impending consequences associated with these types of systems, avoiding making a decision is usually not an alternative either. Therefore, a structured, quantitative process is necessary that will facilitate technically defensible decision making in light of both uncertainty and resource constraints. An environmental decision support framework has been developed to provide a logical structure that defines a cost-effective, traceable, and defensible path to closure on decision regarding compliance and resource allocation. The methodology has been applied effectively to waste disposal problems and is being adapted and implemented in subsurface environmental remediation problems

  3. The conceptual definition of a crisis management decision support system CMDSS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schenker-Wicki, A.G.M.

    1990-01-01

    The Institute for Automation and Operations Research at the University of Fribourg has been charged by the Swiss government to design a concept for a Crisis Management Decision Support System CMDSS to evaluate acceptable countermeasures to reduce ingestion dose after an accidental release of radioactivity and to implement a prototype. The study is divided in two parts. In the first part all the necessary modules and techniques for efficient decision making, based on the most recent developments in decision theory, as well as the necessary structuring of the decision making process are discussed, while in the second part the plausibility of the evaluated system is tested using a case study. For the time being no empirical research has been carried out. The decision making concept presented in this book comprehends decision making on two different levels, a technical and a political one. The division of decision power corresponds to the Swiss legal prescriptions for accidental release of radioactivity. To guarantee decisions of high quality, as many countermeasures as possible have to be presented to the decision makers. Due to the difficulty of evaluating all the possible countermeasures an expert-system is provided for the decision makers to generate the space of alternatives. The use of an expert-system should further help to reduce systematically the huge amount of information which is characteristic in crises situations. To support the comparison and ranking of the different alternatives a multi-criteria approach, the PROMETHEE method, which is based upon outranking relationships, is used. Due to the complexity of the decision making process, its poorly defined mathematical context and the unwillingness of the decision makers to use a method which requires defined substitution rates, decision methods based on utility theory will not be applied in this study. The outranking approach presented in this book provides its users with more transparent and intelligible

  4. Ethical issues faced by clinician/managers in resource-allocation decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemieux-Charles, L; Meslin, E M; Aird, C; Baker, R; Leatt, P

    1993-01-01

    This article explores the ethical issues faced by clinicians with management responsibilities (clinician/managers) when making decisions related to resource allocation and utilization at a Canadian teaching hospital. Using a focus group method, 28 individuals participated in four homogeneous groups that included nurse managers, managers from other professional groups, and physician managers. Ethical issues that recurred throughout the discussions included fairness, concern with preventing harm, consumer/patient choice, balancing needs of different groups of patients, conflict between financial incentives and patient needs, and professional autonomy. The particular issue of conflict is analyzed from two perspectives--a theory of professional-bureaucratic roles and of obligation--that illustrate how both management and philosophical issues are related. The findings suggest that decentralizing resource allocation and utilization decisions does raise ethical issues for clinician/managers and that a better understanding of these issues can be obtained using an interdisciplinary perspective.

  5. Fuzzy decision analysis for project scope change management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Shirazi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available It is very important to manage and control projects with the consideration of the triple constraints; namely time, cost and scope. It is also extremely important to manage the scope and all the procurements needed to complete any project. During the project’s lifecycle many changes take place, either positively or negatively, which should be controlled. If the changes are not controlled we may have scope creep that has negative effect on the project. It is commonly considered a negative incident, and thus, should be kept away from the project. By considering this concept, in this paper, we discuss scope change and managing scope and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is used in selecting the best strategy to manage scope change in projects.

  6. Constructing development and integrated coastal zone management in the conditions of the landslide slopes of Cheboksary water reservoir (Volga River)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikonorova, I. V.

    2018-01-01

    Uncontrolled construction and insufficient accounting of engineering-geological and hydro-geological conditions of the coastal zone, intensified technogenic impact on sloping surfaces and active urbanization led to the emergence of serious problems and emergency situations on the coasts of many Volga reservoirs, including the Cheboksary reservoir, within Cheboksary urban district and adjacent territories of Chuvashia. This article is devoted to substantiation of the possibility of rational construction development of landslide slopes of the Cheboksary water reservoir.

  7. Fuzzy decision analysis for project scope change management

    OpenAIRE

    Farshad Shirazi; Hamed Kazemipoor; Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam

    2017-01-01

    It is very important to manage and control projects with the consideration of the triple constraints; namely time, cost and scope. It is also extremely important to manage the scope and all the procurements needed to complete any project. During the project’s lifecycle many changes take place, either positively or negatively, which should be controlled. If the changes are not controlled we may have scope creep that has negative effect on the project. It is commonly considered a negative incid...

  8. [Knowledge management system for laboratory work and clinical decision support].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inada, Masanori; Sato, Mayumi; Yoneyama, Akiko

    2011-05-01

    This paper discusses a knowledge management system for clinical laboratories. In the clinical laboratory of Toranomon Hospital, we receive about 20 questions relevant to laboratory tests per day from medical doctors or co-medical staff. These questions mostly involve the essence to appropriately accomplish laboratory tests. We have to answer them carefully and suitably because an incorrect answer may cause a medical accident. Up to now, no method has been in place to achieve a rapid response and standardized answers. For this reason, the laboratory staff have responded to various questions based on their individual knowledge. We began to develop a knowledge management system to promote the knowledge of staff working for the laboratory. This system is a type of knowledge base for assisting the work, such as inquiry management, laboratory consultation, process management, and clinical support. It consists of several functions: guiding laboratory test information, managing inquiries from medical staff, reporting results of patient consultation, distributing laboratory staffs notes, and recording guidelines for laboratory medicine. The laboratory test information guide has 2,000 records of medical test information registered in the database with flexible retrieval. The inquiry management tool provides a methos to record all questions, answer easily, and retrieve cases. It helps staff to respond appropriately in a short period of time. The consulting report system treats patients' claims regarding medical tests. The laboratory staffs notes enter a file management system so they can be accessed to aid in clinical support. Knowledge sharing using this function can achieve the transition from individual to organizational learning. Storing guidelines for laboratory medicine will support EBM. Finally, it is expected that this system will support intellectual activity concerning laboratory work and contribute to the practice of knowledge management for clinical work support.

  9. Managing Environmental Interests: Decision Patterns within the Italian Legal System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fracchia, F.

    2008-01-01

    The article deals with the main patterns established by the Italian legal system with respect to the decisions regarding environmental issues. After outlining the most important theories related to the problem of the juridical definition of the environment, as well as the constitutional context, which assigns the environmental protection to the competence of the State, the analysis singles out five different models. The first one is the result of the application of the environmental principles established by the European sources and enforced by the Italian Law; in this regard, in particular, the precautionary principle interferes with the usual way through which the Public Entities take their final decisions. The second pattern embodies the idea according to which the environment is a prominent value, capable of prevailing over other values and interests. The third one, starting from the same assertion (the environmental interest must win), adds that it must only be assessed by technical bodies with a specific competence. The fourth model is based upon the premise that the environmental proceedings cannot be simplified, so that some legal tools such as 'Conferenza di Servizi', silence and so on, cannot be applied in this field. The last pattern considers the possibility for Bodies different from the State (such as the Regions) to regulate the environmental issues, thus introducing stricter levels of protection of the environment. The article underlines that the size of this competence strictly depends on the notion of protection of the environment that is used (in any case, the Constitutional Court, since the fundamental decision n. 407 of 26 July 2002, considering the environment as a sort of transversal matter, has ruled that important room for regional legislative power does exist). Very often there is a sort of subsidiarity, since in the first place the technical bodies have the competence to take care of the environmental interest, while the bureaucracy or the

  10. A water management decision support system contributing to sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horváth, Klaudia; van Esch, Bart; Baayen, Jorn; Pothof, Ivo; Talsma, Jan; van Heeringen, Klaas-Jan

    2017-04-01

    Deltares and Eindhoven University of Technology are developing a new decision support system (DSS) for regional water authorities. In order to maintain water levels in the Dutch polder system, water should be drained and pumped out from the polders to the sea. The time and amount of pumping depends on the current sea level, the water level in the polder, the weather forecast and the electricity price forecast and possibly local renewable power production. This is a multivariable optimisation problem, where the goal is to keep the water level in the polder within certain bounds. By optimizing the operation of the pumps the energy usage and costs can be reduced, hence the operation of the regional water authorities can be more sustainable, while also anticipating on increasing share of renewables in the energy mix in a cost-effective way. The decision support system, based on Delft-FEWS as operational data-integration platform, is running an optimization model built in RTC-Tools 2, which is performing real-time optimization in order to calculate the pumping strategy. It is taking into account the present and future circumstances. As being the core of the real time decision support system, RTC-Tools 2 fulfils the key requirements to a DSS: it is fast, robust and always finds the optimal solution. These properties are associated with convex optimization. In such problems the global optimum can always be found. The challenge in the development is to maintain the convex formulation of all the non-linear components in the system, i.e. open channels, hydraulic structures, and pumps. The system is introduced through 4 pilot projects, one of which is a pilot of the Dutch Water Authority Rivierenland. This is a typical Dutch polder system: several polders are drained to the main water system, the Linge. The water from the Linge can be released to the main rivers that are subject to tidal fluctuations. In case of low tide, water can be released via the gates. In case of high

  11. Improving management decision processes through centralized communication linkages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simanton, D. F.; Garman, J. R.

    1985-01-01

    Information flow is a critical element to intelligent and timely decision-making. At NASA's Johnson Space Center the flow of information is being automated through the use of a centralized backbone network. The theoretical basis of this network, its implications to the horizontal and vertical flow of information, and the technical challenges involved in its implementation are the focus of this paper. The importance of the use of common tools among programs and some future concerns related to file transfer, graphics transfer, and merging of voice and data are also discussed.

  12. THE VALUE OF SIMULATION IN ACCOUNTING TO INFORM MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovalev A. E.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the role and position of accounting in the planning, forecasting and decision-making. From the point of view of the role of modeling shown the three levels of models: modeling in mind, based on semi-structured data; modeling in mind, based on qualitative information organized; and tool-modeling prediction. Described the evaluation of accounting information as a descriptive model of economic processes of the organization. Included list of recommendations of practical value to the development of the accounting model of economic processes.

  13. Structuring decisions for managing threatened and endangered species in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregory, Robin; Arvai, Joseph; Gerber, Leah R

    2013-12-01

    The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision-aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science-based problem, we suggest that a clear decision-making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers' choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade-offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision-focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

  14. APPLICATION OF THE US DECISION SUPPORT TOOL FOR MATERIALS AND WASTE MANAGEMENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA¿s National Risk Management Research Laboratory has led the development of a municipal solid waste decision support tool (MSW-DST). The computer software can be used to calculate life-cycle environmental tradeoffs and full costs of different waste management plans or recycling...

  15. Balancing Data, Time, and Expectations: The Complex Decision-­Making Environment of Enrollment Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Adam W.

    2016-01-01

    As a growing entity within higher education organizational structures, enrollment managers (EMs) are primarily tasked with projecting, recruiting, and retaining the student population of their campuses. Enrollment managers are expected by institutional presidents as well as through industry standards to make data-driven planning decisions to reach…

  16. Preparing Students for Front-Line Management: Non-Routine Day-to-Day Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clydesdale, Greg; Tan, John

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: This paper attempts to reduce the gap between management education and practice. It emphasises day-to-day decisions that middle and lower level managers make. The purpose is to provide an education framework embodying a flexible approach to interpretation and solution creation, suitable for situations of ambiguity and uncertainty.…

  17. BEHAVIORAL DECISION-THEORY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT - ASSESSMENT AND RESOLUTION OF 4 SURVIVAL DILEMMAS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    VLEK, C; KEREN, G

    Environmental degradation and the call for 'sustainable development' provide an extended context and new challenges for decision-theoretic research on risk assessment and management. We characterize environmental risk management as the resolution of four different types of 'survival' dilemmas in

  18. Using Modern Digital Photography Tools to Guide Management Decisions on Forested Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craft, Brandon; Barlow, Rebecca; Kush, John; Hemard, Charles

    2016-01-01

    Forestland management depends on assessing changes that occur over time. Long-term photo point monitoring is a low-cost method for documenting these changes. Using forestry as an example, this article highlights the idea that long-term photo point monitoring can be used to improve many types of land management decision making. Guidance on…

  19. A Decision-Making Model For Managing or Regenerating Southern Upland Hardwoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. Kyle Cunningham; Andrew W. Ezell; Keith L. Belli; John D. Hodges

    2004-01-01

    A decision-making model for managing or regenerating southern upland hardwoods is being created for three physiographic provinces including the Cumberland Plateau, Western Highland Rim, and Upper Coastal Plain. The model performs a stand evaluation, from a silvicultural standpoint, and declares a stand as being either manageable or in need of regeneration. Model...

  20. Trends in Facility Management Technology: The Emergence of the Internet, GIS, and Facility Assessment Decision Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teicholz, Eric

    1997-01-01

    Reports research on trends in computer-aided facilities management using the Internet and geographic information system (GIS) technology for space utilization research. Proposes that facility assessment software holds promise for supporting facility management decision making, and outlines four areas for its use: inventory; evaluation; reporting;…

  1. From Hydroclimatic Prediction to Negotiated and Risk Managed Water Allocation and Reservoir Operation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2013-12-01

    The availability of long lead climate forecasts that can in turn inform streamflow, agricultural, ecological and municipal/industrial and energy demands provides an opportunity for innovations in water resources management that go beyond the current practices and paradigms. In a practical setting, managers seek to meet registered demands as well as they can. Pricing mechanisms to manage demand are rarely invoked. Drought restrictions and operations are implemented as needed, and pressures from special interest groups are sometimes accommodated through a variety of processes. In the academic literature, there is a notion that demand curves for different sectors could be established and used for "optimal management". However, the few attempts to implement such ideas have invariably failed as elicitation of demand elasticity and socio-political factors is imperfect at best. In this talk, I will focus on what is worth predicting and for whom and how operational risks for the water system can be securitized while providing a platform for priced and negotiated allocation of the resources in the presence of imperfect forecasts. The possibility of a national or regional market for water contracts as part of the framework is explored, and its potential benefits and pitfalls identified.

  2. Decision in Principle of the Council of State on the organisation of nuclear waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-01-01

    This Decision, which came into force on the date of its publication, contains general guidelines to be followed for nuclear waste management in nuclear facilities until the entry into force of special legislation on the organisational and economic aspects of such management. It provides in particular that radioactive waste 'producers' will bear financial responsibility for the waste they produce and must collect funds for waste management from the time their installation operates, while ensuring that the real value of these funds is maintained. During the period preceding the entry into force of the above-mentioned legislation, the terms of the Decision will be included in all permits for nuclear facilities. (NEA) [fr

  3. How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an example of climate service for water resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viel, Christian; Beaulant, Anne-Lise; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Céron, Jean-Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project EUPORIAS was a great opportunity for the climate community to co-design with stakeholders some original and innovative climate services at seasonal time scales. In this framework, Météo-France proposed a prototype that aimed to provide to water resource managers some tailored information to better anticipate the coming season. It is based on a forecasting system, built on a refined hydrological suite, forced by a coupled seasonal forecast model. It particularly delivers probabilistic river flow prediction on river basins all over the French territory. This paper presents the work we have done with "EPTB Seine Grands Lacs" (EPTB SGL), an institutional stakeholder in charge of the management of 4 great reservoirs on the upper Seine Basin. First, we present the co-design phase, which means the translation of classical climate outputs into several indices, relevant to influence the stakeholder's decision making process (DMP). And second, we detail the evaluation of the impact of the forecast on the DMP. This evaluation is based on an experiment realised in collaboration with the stakeholder. Concretely EPTB SGL has replayed some past decisions, in three different contexts: without any forecast, with a forecast A and with a forecast B. One of forecast A and B really contained seasonal forecast, the other only contained random forecasts taken from past climate. This placebo experiment, realised in a blind test, allowed us to calculate promising skill scores of the DMP based on seasonal forecast in comparison to a classical approach based on climatology, and to EPTG SGL current practice.

  4. Connecting engineering operations to strategic management: a framework for decision making in engineering offshoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Zaza Nadja Lee; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the implications for management and engineering functions and strategies when the product development process is globalised. Five case studies of Danish multinational corporations were conducted. The findings showed that offshoring engineering presented companies...... with challenges to both management and engineering. These challenges are addressed by management at the operational level. However, this resulted in both positive and negative impacts. We propose this is because there is a decoupling between global engineering operations and the strategic level...... of the organisation. The Global Decision-Making (GDM) framework described here is a decision-making framework for engineering offshoring decisions for product development activities. The framework proposes that risks in engineering offshoring can be reduced by connecting engineering operations to strategic management...

  5. A methodological model to assist in the optimization and risk management of mining investment decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botin, Jose A; Guzman, Ronald R; Smith, Martin L

    2011-01-01

    Identifying, quantifying, and minimizing technical risks associated with investment decisions is a key challenge for mineral industry decision makers and investors. However, risk analysis in most bankable mine feasibility studies are based on the stochastic modeling of project N et Present Value (NPV)which, in most cases, fails to provide decision makers with a truly comprehensive analysis of risks associated with technical and management uncertainty and, as a result, are of little use for risk management and project optimization. This paper presents a value-chain risk management approach where project risk is evaluated for each step of the project life cycle, from exploration to mine closure, and risk management is performed as a part of a stepwise value-added optimization process.

  6. Improving societal acceptance of rad waste management policy decisions: an approach based on complex intelligence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Suman

    2008-01-01

    In today's context elaborate public participation exercises are conducted around the world to elicit and incorporate societal risk perceptions into nuclear policy Decision-Making. However, on many occasions, such as in the case of rad waste management, the society remains unconvinced about these decisions. This naturally leads to the questions: are techniques for incorporating societal risk perceptions into the rad waste policy decision making processes sufficiently mature? How could societal risk perceptions and legal normative principles be better integrated in order to render the decisions more equitable and convincing to society? Based on guidance from socio-psychological research this paper postulates that a critical factor for gaining/improving societal acceptance is the quality and adequacy of criteria for option evaluation that are used in the policy decision making. After surveying three rad waste public participation cases, the paper identifies key lacunae in criteria abstraction processes as currently practiced. A new policy decision support model CIRDA: Complex Intelligent Risk Discourse Abstraction model that is based on the heuristic of Risk-Risk Analysis is proposed to overcome these lacunae. CIRDA's functionality of rad waste policy decision making is modelled as a policy decision-making Abstract Intelligent Agent and the agent program/abstraction mappings are presented. CIRDA is then applied to a live (U.K.) rad waste management case and the advantages of this method as compared to the Value Tree Method as practiced in the GB case are demonstrated. (author)

  7. Computerized clinical decision support systems for chronic disease management: A decision-maker-researcher partnership systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Navarro Tamara

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The use of computerized clinical decision support systems (CCDSSs may improve chronic disease management, which requires recurrent visits to multiple health professionals, ongoing disease and treatment monitoring, and patient behavior modification. The objective of this review was to determine if CCDSSs improve the processes of chronic care (such as diagnosis, treatment, and monitoring of disease and associated patient outcomes (such as effects on biomarkers and clinical exacerbations. Methods We conducted a decision-maker-researcher partnership systematic review. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Ovid's EBM Reviews database, Inspec, and reference lists for potentially eligible articles published up to January 2010. We included randomized controlled trials that compared the use of CCDSSs to usual practice or non-CCDSS controls. Trials were eligible if at least one component of the CCDSS was designed to support chronic disease management. We considered studies 'positive' if they showed a statistically significant improvement in at least 50% of relevant outcomes. Results Of 55 included trials, 87% (n = 48 measured system impact on the process of care and 52% (n = 25 of those demonstrated statistically significant improvements. Sixty-five percent (36/55 of trials measured impact on, typically, non-major (surrogate patient outcomes, and 31% (n = 11 of those demonstrated benefits. Factors of interest to decision makers, such as cost, user satisfaction, system interface and feature sets, unique design and deployment characteristics, and effects on user workflow were rarely investigated or reported. Conclusions A small majority (just over half of CCDSSs improved care processes in chronic disease management and some improved patient health. Policy makers, healthcare administrators, and practitioners should be aware that the evidence of CCDSS effectiveness is limited, especially with respect to the small number and size of studies

  8. Decision support system for outage management and automated crew dispatch

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Ning; Mousavi, Mirrasoul

    2018-01-23

    A decision support system is provided for utility operations to assist with crew dispatch and restoration activities following the occurrence of a disturbance in a multiphase power distribution network, by providing a real-time visualization of possible location(s). The system covers faults that occur on fuse-protected laterals. The system uses real-time data from intelligent electronics devices coupled with other data sources such as static feeder maps to provide a complete picture of the disturbance event, guiding the utility crew to the most probable location(s). This information is provided in real-time, reducing restoration time and avoiding more costly and laborious fault location finding practices.

  9. Decision Making and Risk Management in Adventure Sports Coaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Loel; Collins, Dave

    2013-01-01

    Adventure sport coaches practice in environments that are dynamic and high in risk, both perceived and actual. The inherent risks associated with these activities, individuals' responses and the optimal exploitation of both combine to make the processes of risk management more complex and hazardous than the traditional sports where risk management…

  10. The Strategic Association between Enterprise Content Management and Decision Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alalwan, Jaffar Ahmad

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the increasing information overload and with the structured and unstructured data complexity, many organizations have implemented enterprise content management (ECM) systems. Published research on ECM so far is very limited and reports on ECM implementations have been scarce until recently (Tyrvainen et al. 2006). However, the little…

  11. Multi-criteria decision making for water resource management: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2010-01-04

    Jan 4, 2010 ... tions of water supply and demand, not only to reach a comprehensive assessment of the water budget in the Gediz Basin, but also to evaluate the impacts of proposed management alternatives under different conditions. The Water Evaluation and. Planning (WEAP) software is used as a simulation and ...

  12. Managing the university campus : Information to support real estate decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Den Heijer, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    In the past decade managing the university campus has become more complex and challenging, with many more stakeholders, opportunities and threats to consider. Decreasing public involvement and funding for universities puts pressure on the internal allocation of resources, comparing investments in

  13. Pantanal Taquari : tools for decision making in integrated water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jongman, R.H.G.

    2005-01-01

    Results of a project within the Water for Food and Ecosystems Programme. The sanding up of Rio Taquari is a major problem, because of the nearly permanent inundation of a large area. Solving that problem is difficult as there is no coherent river management organisation

  14. Gravity observations for hydrocarbon reservoir monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    Glegola, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis the added value of gravity observations for hydrocarbon reservoir monitoring and characterization is investigated. Reservoir processes and reservoir types most suitable for gravimetric monitoring are identified. Major noise sources affecting time-lapse gravimetry are analyzed. The added value of gravity data for reservoir monitoring and characterization is analyzed within closed-loop reservoir management concept. Synthetic 2D and 3D numerical experiments are performed where var...

  15. From axiomatics of quantum probability to modelling geological uncertainty and management of intelligent hydrocarbon reservoirs with the theory of open quantum systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia

    2018-04-28

    As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper , we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E ; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. 'explore or not?'; 'open new well or not?'; 'contaminated by water or not?'; 'double or triple porosity medium?') is modelled by using the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism).This article is part of the theme issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  16. Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John R.; Blank, Peter J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Fallon, Jane E.; Fallon, Frederick W.

    2013-01-01

    Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a convenient framework for making structured decisions when the management objective is focused on a collection of species. These models use replicate survey data that are often collected on managed lands. Occupancy can be modeled for each species as a function of habitat and other environmental features, and Bayesian methods allow for estimation and prediction of collective responses of groups of species to alternative scenarios of habitat management. We provide an example of this approach using data from breeding bird surveys conducted in 2008 at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, Maryland, evaluating the effects of eliminating meadow and wetland habitats on scrub-successional and woodland-breeding bird species using summed total occupancy of species as an objective function. Removal of meadows and wetlands decreased value of an objective function based on scrub-successional species by 23.3% (95% CI: 20.3–26.5), but caused only a 2% (0.5, 3.5) increase in value of an objective function based on woodland species, documenting differential effects of elimination of meadows and wetlands on these groups of breeding birds. This approach provides a useful quantitative tool for managers interested in structured decision making.

  17. Factors of accepting pain management decision support systems by nurse anesthetists

    OpenAIRE

    Hsiao Ju-Ling; Wu Wen-Chu; Chen Rai-Fu

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Background Pain management is a critical but complex issue for the relief of acute pain, particularly for postoperative pain and severe pain in cancer patients. It also plays important roles in promoting quality of care. The introduction of pain management decision support systems (PM-DSS) is considered a potential solution for addressing the complex problems encountered in pain management. This study aims to investigate factors affecting acceptance of PM-DSS from a nurse anesthetist...

  18. Manage Short-term Flood Events and Long-term Water Needs via Reservoir Operation: A Risk Analysis Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, W.; Hsu, N.; Wei, C.; Cheng, W.

    2010-12-01

    This study proposes a methodology to assess the risk of the water shortage during a drought period and the risk of the downstream over-levee flows during a flood period based on the reservoir operation rules for flood control. These rules are defined by upper limits (or flood control storage zone).Through a Monte Carlo simulation, a series of hydrographs are generated to represent the reservoir inflow during a flood period based on historic typhoon events. This series of generated hydrographs are then applied to a reservoir flood operation simulation model. The simulation model calculates the water levels of reservoir at the end of a flood period and the reservoir release during the typhoon the events. Reservoir release is used to calculate the water level at downstream control locations for evaluation of a short-term over-levee risk. The ending water level of the reservoir is used as the initial condition for a water distribution optimization model that evaluates drought conditions for long-term water supply. By applying risk analysis, an assessment is made on the risk of both the water shortage during a drought and over-levee flows during flooding seasons. Based on the results of the risk analysis, we evaluate the relationship among upper-limit sets, shortage risk, and over-levee risk and also provide reservoir operation suggestions based on the risk evaluation.

  19. A decision-analysis approach for contaminated dredged material management in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Gi Hoon; Kim, Suk Hyun; Suedel, Burton C; Clarke, Joan U; Kim, Jongbum

    2010-01-01

    To meet London Protocol requirements, South Korea is preparing to reduce the need for disposal of dredged material at sea. The new requirements controlling ocean disposal of dredged material pose significant challenges to the South Korean government, because the previous practice of offshore disposal of contaminated dredged material is no longer permitted. Hence, other alternatives for treating and disposing of contaminated dredged material are being evaluated and selected for implementation. A new management and decision approach is therefore needed for regulators and implementers to show what information and what decision-making processes were used to make the decision, to increase administrative transparency for such projects in the public domain. To address this need, an iterative approach was developed for dredged material management that includes the essential elements of process, people, and tools needed for successful environmental decision making. The approach has 6 steps: problem definition, developing objectives and criteria, identifying alternatives, performing the evaluation, comparing alternatives, and selecting the preferred alternative. The primary objective of the approach is to provide a systematic means of exploring contaminated dredged material management alternatives in South Korea using criteria that integrate risk with economic and stakeholder value information. The approach incorporates the desired decision-making attributes of transparency, comparative analysis, and inclusion of public input. Although it was developed for South Korea, the approach can be applied in any situation in which dredged material management alternatives are being considered to manage contaminated sediment risks.

  20. Demonstration of the application of weighting factors for cost and radiological impact to waste management decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barraclough, I.M.; Morrey, M.; Mobbs, S.F.

    1991-01-01

    Radioactive waste management can require difficult decisions involving many complex and often competing factors. In order to make decisions, the relevant factors need to be compared with each other and balanced, so that the resulting action produces the greatest net benefit. Decision-aiding techniques may help to carry out this balancing. A public survey has been designed and analyzed, which focused on the importance of both social values and the psychological processes likely to contribute to their formation. A method has been developed by which the preferences of the public concerning the consequence of waste management options may be obtained in a form suitable for use in multi-attribute decision-aiding techniques. It appears that this method is capable of producing useful, meaningful values for these weights, and therefore represents a major improvement on previous methods of obtaining weighting factors

  1. The Integrated Decision Model in Emergency Dispatch Management and It's Implications for Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B.L. William Wong

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports on a review of a number of well-known naturalistic decision making. NDM, models (Zsambok & Klein, 1997. Key features of these models were identified and were found to represent different views of the same naturalistic decision making process. The key features of these different views were then integrated into a single model called the Integrated Decision Model. To validate the model, a study of emergency dispatch co-ordinators was conducted to determine the 'goodness of fit' of the model in a naturalistic domain. A Critical Decision Method-based study (Klein et al., 1989 was conducted and found enough evidence in the emergency dispatch management process to support the proposal of the Integrated Decision Model.

  2. Assessment of stormwater management options in urban contexts using Multiple Attribute Decision-Making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gogate, Nivedita G.; Kalbar, Pradip; Raval, Pratap M.

    2017-01-01

    on critical review of literature. Alternatives have been formulated as varying percentages (degree of adoption) of these suitable measures to manage the stormwater sustainably. Further, a novel decision-making framework is developed which generates the hierarchy for selection of the most sustainable......-weightings and are translated into a decision-making methodology. Experts' opinions have been included using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). One of the most widely used Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) method, TOPSIS, is used to rank the alternatives and to identify the most sustainable alternatives. Various...... scenarios to represent different stakeholders' perspectives have been articulated. Alternative with medium level of cost implication and satisfactory level of performance is chosen by the decision making method in most of the scenarios. The proposed decision making approach can be used for selecting...

  3. Travel or technology? Business factors influencing management decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anneli Douglas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available There is an on-going debate on the use of technology as an alternative to business travel, with industry and academia differing in their views on such substitution. This study investigates the trend towards substitution and identifies the factors and barriers that play a role in either supporting or limiting such substitution. The results provide management with an evaluation of the benefits of replacing business trips with videoconferencing and other alternatives, against the potential disadvantages of using these alternatives.

  4. An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

    2012-04-01

    Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact

  5. Land Management Decisions and Agricultural Productivity in the Hillsides of Honduras

    OpenAIRE

    Jansen, Hans G.P.; Pender, John L.; Damon, Amy L.; Schipper, Robert A.

    2006-01-01

    Increasing land degradation and concomitant low agricultural productivity are important determinants of rural poverty in the hillside areas of Honduras. Using data at the levels of the farm household, parcel and plot, we develop an econometric modeling framework to analyze land management decisions and their impact on crop productivity. Our econometric model allows for endogenous household decisions regarding livelihood strategy choice, use of labor and external inputs, and participation in o...

  6. Intuitive decision - making and leadership competencies of managers in Slovenian automotive industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Erenda

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Research question (RQ: Presence of intuitive decision - making by top and middle managers in Slovenian automotive industry. Purpose: Establish the presence of inuitive decision - making by top and middle managers in Slovenian automotive industry, define the intuitive decision - making with variables of leadership competencies. Methodology: empirical research was conducted within the quantitative research approach by means of a GDMS questionnaire (General Decision Making Style. The obtained research data were processed by means of descriptive statistics, factor analysis (PAF, varimax, recoding and discriminant analysis. Results: Intuitive decision - making by top and middle managers in automotive industry can be characterized by their ability to recognize emotions, to reflect on options when making a decision and by making a decision at the last moment. Organization: Practical (applicable added value in the area of management personnel administration in the automotive industry and others. Society: Basic starting points set for further detailed and targeted research in other related social areas. Originality: Originality of the conducted research consists in the fact that no available domestic or foreign scientific literature features any research implying the elements of the operationalization applied (examination of relationship between leadership competencies and intuitive decision - making as this is the case in the present research which undoubtedly confirms its originality. Limitations/further research: (1 Use of standardized measuring instruments of foreign origin and potential differences between the environment where the measuring instrumnets were conceived and the environment where they were used. (2 Limited capabilities of translation of measuring instruments into words, collocations and phrases from the original questionnaires for which no adequate translation in Slovene exists.

  7. The application of natural science data to land management decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, D. L.; Sharpe, C. P.; Rowe, P. G.

    1974-01-01

    A natural environmental analysis process which allows the decision maker to know the probable consequences of a decision prior to the act is developed. Emphasis is placed on the fit between the natural environment and the social, economic, and functional attributes of man's communities and the transition from nature in its present state to various forms and intensities of development. Applications of the analysis are examined. It is concluded that the analysis is a workable system for land use management.

  8. DayWater: an Adaptive Decision Support System for Urban Stormwater Management

    OpenAIRE

    Thevenot, Daniel,

    2008-01-01

    International audience; The European DayWater project has developed a prototype of an Adaptive Decision Support System (ADSS) related to urban stormwater pollution source control. The DayWater ADSS greatly facilitates decision-making for stormwater source control, which is currently impeded by the large number of stakeholders involved and by the necessary multidisciplinary knowledge. This book presents the results of this project, providing new insights into both technical and management issu...

  9. Decision-support systems for natural-hazards and land-management issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinitz, Laura; Forney, William; Byrd, Kristin

    2012-01-01

    Scientists at the USGS Western Geographic Science Center are developing decision-support systems (DSSs) for natural-hazards and land-management issues. DSSs are interactive computer-based tools that use data and models to help identify and solve problems. These systems can provide crucial support to policymakers, planners, and communities for making better decisions about long-term natural hazards mitigation and land-use planning.

  10. Impact of age norms and stereotypes on managers' hiring decisions of retirees

    OpenAIRE

    Karpinski, K.; Henkens, C.J.I.M.; Schippers, J.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose -Our study investigates the role of managers in the re-employment of early retirees and asks what the effect is of managers’ age norms and stereotypes on managers’ employment decisions. Design/methodology/approach- A combination of a factorial study and a survey was conducted. First, information on the age norms and stereotypes was collected. Secondly, profiles of hypothetical retired job applicants were presented to the employers, who were asked to make a specific hiring decision. Th...

  11. Bathymetry and capacity of Shawnee Reservoir, Oklahoma, 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashworth, Chad E.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Smith, Kevin A.

    2017-02-13

    capacity and between stage and reservoir surface area. The bathymetric map may serve as a baseline to which temporal changes in storage capacity, due to sedimentation and other factors, can be compared. The stage-storage relation may be used in the reporting of real-time Shawnee Reservoir storage capacity at USGS station 07241600 to support water-resource management decisions by the City of Shawnee.

  12. Decision making under uncertainty--an example for seismic risk management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan; Najjaran, Homayoun

    2010-01-01

    Decision-making techniques are used to select the "best" alternatives under multiple and often conflicting criteria. Multicriteria decision making (MCDM) necessitates to incorporate uncertainties in the decision-making process. The major thrust of this article is to extend the framework proposed by Yager for multiple decisionmakers and fuzzy utilities (payoffs). In addition, the concept of expert credibility factor is introduced. The proposed approach is demonstrated for an example of seismic risk management using a heuristic hierarchical structure. A step-by-step formulation of the proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical example and a three-story reinforced concrete building.

  13. Smart Building: Decision Making Architecture for Thermal Energy Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uribe, Oscar Hernández; Martin, Juan Pablo San; Garcia-Alegre, María C; Santos, Matilde; Guinea, Domingo

    2015-10-30

    Smart applications of the Internet of Things are improving the performance of buildings, reducing energy demand. Local and smart networks, soft computing methodologies, machine intelligence algorithms and pervasive sensors are some of the basics of energy optimization strategies developed for the benefit of environmental sustainability and user comfort. This work presents a distributed sensor-processor-communication decision-making architecture to improve the acquisition, storage and transfer of thermal energy in buildings. The developed system is implemented in a near Zero-Energy Building (nZEB) prototype equipped with a built-in thermal solar collector, where optical properties are analysed; a low enthalpy geothermal accumulation system, segmented in different temperature zones; and an envelope that includes a dynamic thermal barrier. An intelligent control of this dynamic thermal barrier is applied to reduce the thermal energy demand (heating and cooling) caused by daily and seasonal weather variations. Simulations and experimental results are presented to highlight the nZEB thermal energy reduction.

  14. Toward patient-centered, personalized and personal decision support and knowledge management: a survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leong, T-Y

    2012-01-01

    This paper summarizes the recent trends and highlights the challenges and opportunities in decision support and knowledge management for patient-centered, personalized, and personal health care. The discussions are based on a broad survey of related references, focusing on the most recent publications. Major advances are examined in the areas of i) shared decision making paradigms, ii) continuity of care infrastructures and architectures, iii) human factors and system design approaches, iv) knowledge management innovations, and v) practical deployment and change considerations. Many important initiatives, projects, and plans with promising results have been identified. The common themes focus on supporting the individual patients who are playing an increasing central role in their own care decision processes. New collaborative decision making paradigms and information infrastructures are required to ensure effective continuity of care. Human factors and usability are crucial for the successful development and deployment of the relevant systems, tools, and aids. Advances in personalized medicine can be achieved through integrating genomic, phenotypic and other biological, individual, and population level information, and gaining useful insights from building and analyzing biological and other models at multiple levels of abstraction. Therefore, new Information and Communication Technologies and evaluation approaches are needed to effectively manage the scale and complexity of biomedical and health information, and adapt to the changing nature of clinical decision support. Recent research in decision support and knowledge management combines heterogeneous information and personal data to provide cost-effective, calibrated, personalized support in shared decision making at the point of care. Current and emerging efforts concentrate on developing or extending conventional paradigms, techniques, systems, and architectures for the new predictive, preemptive, and

  15. Simulation of California's Major Reservoirs Outflow Using Data Mining Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

    2014-12-01

    The reservoir's outflow is controlled by reservoir operators, which is different from the upstream inflow. The outflow is more important than the reservoir's inflow for the downstream water users. In order to simulate the complicated reservoir operation and extract the outflow decision making patterns for California's 12 major reservoirs, we build a data-driven, computer-based ("artificial intelligent") reservoir decision making tool, using decision regression and classification tree approach. This is a well-developed statistical and graphical modeling methodology in the field of data mining. A shuffled cross validation approach is also employed to extract the outflow decision making patterns and rules based on the selected decision variables (inflow amount, precipitation, timing, water type year etc.). To show the accuracy of the model, a verification study is carried out comparing the model-generated outflow decisions ("artificial intelligent" decisions) with that made by reservoir operators (human decisions). The simulation results show that the machine-generated outflow decisions are very similar to the real reservoir operators' decisions. This conclusion is based on statistical evaluations using the Nash-Sutcliffe test. The proposed model is able to detect the most influential variables and their weights when the reservoir operators make an outflow decision. While the proposed approach was firstly applied and tested on California's 12 major reservoirs, the method is universally adaptable to other reservoir systems.

  16. A Decentralized Compositional Framework for Dependable Decision Process in Self-Managed Cyber Physical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Zhou

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Cyber Physical Systems (CPSs need to interact with the changeable environment under various interferences. To provide continuous and high quality services, a self-managed CPS should automatically reconstruct itself to adapt to these changes and recover from failures. Such dynamic adaptation behavior introduces systemic challenges for CPS design, advice evaluation and decision process arrangement. In this paper, a formal compositional framework is proposed to systematically improve the dependability of the decision process. To guarantee the consistent observation of event orders for causal reasoning, this work first proposes a relative time-based method to improve the composability and compositionality of the timing property of events. Based on the relative time solution, a formal reference framework is introduced for self-managed CPSs, which includes a compositional FSM-based actor model (subsystems of CPS, actor-based advice and runtime decomposable decisions. To simplify self-management, a self-similar recursive actor interface is proposed for decision (actor composition. We provide constraints and seven patterns for the composition of reliability and process time requirements. Further, two decentralized decision process strategies are proposed based on our framework, and we compare the reliability with the static strategy and the centralized processing strategy. The simulation results show that the one-order feedback strategy has high reliability, scalability and stability against the complexity of decision and random failure. This paper also shows a way to simplify the evaluation for dynamic system by improving the composability and compositionality of the subsystem.

  17. An Evaluation of Feral Cat Management Options Using a Decision Analysis Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerrie Anne T. Loyd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The feral domestic cat (Felis catus is a predatory invasive species with documented negative effects on native wildlife. The issue of appropriate and acceptable feral cat management is a matter of contentious debate in cities and states across the United States due to concerns for wildlife conservation, cat welfare, and public health. Common management strategies include: Trap-Neuter-Release, Trap-Neuter-Release with removal of kittens for adoption and Trap-Euthanize. Very little empirical evidence exists relevant to the efficacy of alternative options and a model-based approach is needed to predict population response and extend calculations to impact on wildlife. We have created a structured decision support model representing multiple stakeholder groups to facilitate the coordinated management of feral cats. We used a probabilistic graphical model (a Bayesian Belief Network to evaluate and rank alternative management decisions according to efficacy, societal preferences, and cost. Our model predicts that Trap-Neuter-Release strategies would be optimal management decisions for small local populations of less than fifty cats while Trap-Euthanize would be the optimal management decision for populations greater than 50 cats. Removal is predicted to reduce feral cat populations quickly and prevent cats from taking a large number of wildlife prey.

  18. Understanding Managers Decision Making Process for Tools Selection in the Core Front End of Innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appio, Francesco P.; Achiche, Sofiane; McAloone, Tim C.

    2011-01-01

    and optimise the activities. To select these tools, managers of the product development team have to use several premises to decide upon which tool is more appropriate to which activity. This paper proposes an approach to model the decision making process of the managers. The results underline the dimensions...... hypotheses are tested. A preliminary version of a theoretical model depicting the decision process of managers during tools selection in the FFE is proposed. The theoretical model is built from the constructed hypotheses....... influencing the decision process before a certain tool is chosen, and how those tools impact the performance of cost, time and efficiency. In order to achieve this, five companies participated for the data collection. Interesting trends and differences emerge from the analysis of the data in hand, and several...

  19. Improving invasive species management by integrating priorities and contributions of scientists and decision makers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    N'Guyen, Anouk; Hirsch, Philipp E; Adrian-Kalchhauser, Irene; Burkhardt-Holm, Patricia

    2016-04-01

    Managing invasive species is a major challenge for society. In the case of newly established invaders, rapid action is key for a successful management. Here, we develop, describe and recommend a three-step transdisciplinary process (the "butterfly model") to rapidly initiate action for invasion management. In the framing of a case study, we present results from the first of these steps: assessing priorities and contributions of both scientists and decision makers. Both scientists and decision makers prioritise research on prevention. The available scientific knowledge contributions, however, are publications on impacts rather than prevention of the invasive species. The contribution of scientific knowledge does thus not reflect scientists' perception of what is essentially needed. We argue that a more objective assessment and transparent communication of not only decision makers' but also scientists' priorities is an essential basis for a successful cooperation. Our three-step model can help achieve objectivity via transdisciplinary communication.

  20. Project management in mine actions using Multi-Criteria-Analysis-based decision support system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Mladineo

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a Web-based Decision Support System (Web DSS, that supports humanitarian demining operations and restoration of mine-contaminated areas, is presented. The financial shortage usually triggers a need for priority setting in Project Management in Mine actions. As part of the FP7 Project TIRAMISU, a specialized Web DSS has been developed to achieve a fully transparent priority setting process. It allows stakeholders and donors to actively join the decision making process using a user-friendly and intuitive Web application. The main advantage of this Web DSS is its unique way of managing a mine action project using Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA, namely the PROMETHEE method, in order to select priorities for demining actions. The developed Web DSS allows decision makers to use several predefined scenarios (different criteria weights or to develop their own, so it allows project managers to compare different demining possibilities with ease.

  1. Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michalopoulos Evangelos

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

  2. An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret

    2017-05-15

    We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements (www.swtelr.com). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  3. The experiences from implementing decision support technology to address water management plans in an operational environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McArdle, S. [4DM Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada); Tonkin, C. [Ontario Power Generation Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This presentation described Ontario Power Generation's experience in implementing a decision support tool to enable water management plans for its operations through technology solutions. All hydroelectric producers in Ontario are required to make water management plans in order to maintain water levels and flows in their operating regions. This regulation was created in response to environmental concerns as well as to changes in the electricity market and growth of residential and cottage property near water bodies. In order to keep informed and to address compliance issues, operators and managers need situation awareness information to balance operational decisions. The online Adaptive Water Management System (AWMS) decision support tool was recently adopted by Ontario Power Generation to provide information needed to address the requirements of Water Management Plans. The AWMS provides users with information on water levels and flows; the ability to implement, modify, and manage daily instructions at the facilities; track conditions in the watershed; and, provide a status of compliance. The tool was developed by 4DM Inc. in collaboration with Ottawa St. Lawrence Plant Group for the Madawaska River Watershed Management, a model partnership between operator, regulator and Public Advisory Committee to develop a water management plan.

  4. Achieving a Risk-Informed Decision-Making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezfuli, Homayoon

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the evolution of risk management (RM) at NASA. The aim of the RM approach at NASA is to promote an approach that is heuristic, proactive, and coherent across all of NASA. Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is a decision making process that uses a diverse set of performance measures along with other considerations within a deliberative process to inform decision making. RIDM is invoked for key decisions such as architecture and design decisions, make-buy decisions, and budget reallocation. The RIDM process and how it relates to the continuous Risk Management (CRM) process is reviewed.

  5. NASA Earth Observations Informing Energy Management Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckman, Richard; Stackhouse, Paul

    2017-01-01

    The Energy Sector is experiencing increasing impacts from severe weather and shifting climatic trends, as well as facing a changing political climate, adding uncertainty for stakeholders as they make short- and long-term planning investments. Climate changes such as prolonged extreme heat and drought (leading to wildfire spread, for example), sea level rise, and extreme storms are changing the ways that utilities operate. Energy infrastructure located in coastal or flood-prone areas faces inundation risks, such as damage to energy facilities. The use of renewable energy resources is increasing, requiring more information about their intermittency and spatial patterns. In light of these challenges, public and private stakeholders have collaborated to identify potential data sources, tools, and programmatic ideas. For example, utilities across the country are using cutting-edge technology and data to plan for and adapt to these changes. In the Federal Government, NASA has invested in preliminary work to identify needs and opportunities for satellite data in energy sector application, and the Department of Energy has similarly brought together stakeholders to understand the landscape of climate vulnerability and resilience for utilities and others. However, have these efforts improved community-scale resilience and adaptation efforts? Further, some communities are more vulnerable to climate change and infrastructure impacts than others. This session has two goals. First, panelists seek to share existing and ongoing efforts related to energy management. Second, the session seeks to engage with attendees via group knowledge exchange to connect national energy management efforts to local practice for increased community resilience.

  6. Managing Competition “Unstructured Decision Making” Benefits for Executives, Enterprise and Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Ernesto Martín-Pérez

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In an increasingly uncertain and changing environment, the success of the decisions is limited and thus obtains the expected results. Hence the need to manage professional competences in executives, as those ones encourages and contributes to job performance. For this reason, we want to argue the impact of managing competition “unstructured decision making” by executives, enterprises and Cuban society. The results are expressed in the description of the process and the advantages that executives, enterprises and society could obtain in general.

  7. The economic value of drought information: Application to water resources management decisions in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrote, Luis; Sordo, Alvaro; Iglesias, Ana

    2016-04-01

    Information is valuable when it improves decision-making (e.g., actions can be adjusted to better suit the situation at hand) and enables the mitigation of damage. However, quantifying the value of information is often difficult. Here we explore a general approach to understand the economic value of drought information for water managers framing our approach in the precautionary principle that reminds us that uncertainty is not a reason to postpone or avoid action. We explore how decision making can disregard uncertain effects, taking a short-term approach and focusing instead on the certain costs and benefits of taking action. Two main questions arise: How do we know that advanced drought information is actually helping decisions?; and What is the value of information in the decision process? The approach is applied to several regulated water resources systems in Spain. It first views drought information as a factor in the decision process which can be used by water managers to reduce uncertainty. Second, the value of drought information is the expected gain in a decision outcome (utility) from using additional information. Finally, the gains of improved information are compared with the information collection costs. Here we estimate the value by taking into account the accuracy of the drought information, the subjective probabilities about the value, analyzed as Bayesian probabilities, and the ability or skill of the stakeholders to apply the drought information to modify their actions. Since information may be considered a public good (non-rivalry and non-excludability), it may justify public policy in the provision of information, considering social costs and benefits. The application of the framework to the Spanish case studies shows that information benefits exceeds to costs when drought frequency is 20-40% above normal values; below these values uncertainty in the decisions dominate the results; above these values, the management decisions are limited even

  8. Strategic workload management and decision biases in aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raby, Mireille; Wickens, Christopher D.

    1994-01-01

    Thirty pilots flew three simulated landing approaches under conditions of low, medium, and high workload. Workload conditions were created by varying time pressure and external communications requirements. Our interest was in how the pilots strategically managed or adapted to the increasing workload. We independently assessed the pilot's ranking of the priority of different discrete tasks during the approach and landing. Pilots were found to sacrifice some aspects of primary flight control as workload increased. For discrete tasks, increasing workload increased the amount of time in performing the high priority tasks, decreased the time in performing those of lowest priority, and did not affect duration of performance episodes or optimality of scheduling of tasks of any priority level. Individual differences analysis revealed that high-performing subjects scheduled discrete tasks earlier in the flight and shifted more often between different activities.

  9. EXPOSING THE FALSE PARADIGM USED IN MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malan Smith

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This article discusses Economic Value Added (EVA which is a popular shareholder value measurement. The main driving factors that influence EVA can be deduced from a modification of the Du Pont financial model. However, if these drivers are communicated to the organisation, and goals are set around achieving specific components of the drivers, the results achieved might be suboptimal. This is a direct consequence of the fact that the organisation is a system, and that EVA is an emergent property of the system. Systems theory should therefore be applied to discover the reasons for these counterintuitive outcomes in an organisation. Dilemmas (conflicts in the system are a result of the paradigm used in understanding the system. A method to examine the conflicts that occur in a system is the three-cloud technique. By applying this technique, it is possible to find the root cause of suboptimal performance in organisations: the false underlying paradigm used in the decision making process. The incorrect paradigm is to assume that a local optimal outcome is equivalent to a global optimal outcome.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel bespreek Ekonomiese Toegevoegde Waarde (ETW, 'n gewilde maatstaf van aandeel-houerwaarde. Die belangrikste drywers wat ETW beinvloed, kan afgelei word uit 'n gewysigde Du Pont model. Indien doelwitte in die organisasie rondom hierdie drywers in isolasie gestel word, kan die resultate suboptimaal wees. Die suboptimale resultate is 'n direkte gevolg van die feit dat die organisasie 'n stelsel is, en dat ETW 'n stelseleienskap is. Stelselteorie moet dus toegepas word am die onderliggende redes vir hierdie suboptimale resultate te vind. Dilemmas (konflikte binne ' n stelsel is 'n direkte resultaat van die paradigma wat gebruik word om die stelsel te verstaan. ' n Metode om die konflikte in 'n stelsel te ondersoek is die drie-wolk metode. Deur hierdie metode toe te pas, is dit moontlik om die

  10. Interdisciplinary study of reservoir compartments and heterogeneity. Final report, October 1, 1993--December 31, 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Kirk, C.

    1998-01-01

    A case study approach using Terry Sandstone production from the Hambert-Aristocrat Field, Weld County, Colorado was used to document the process of integration. One specific project goal is to demonstrate how a multidisciplinary approach can be used to detect reservoir compartmentalization and improve reserve estimates. The final project goal is to derive a general strategy for integration for independent operators. Teamwork is the norm for the petroleum industry where teams of geologists, geophysicists, and petroleum engineers work together to improve profits through a better understanding of reservoir size, compartmentalization, and orientation as well as reservoir flow characteristics. In this manner, integration of data narrows the uncertainty in reserve estimates and enhances reservoir management decisions. The process of integration has proven to be iterative. Integration has helped identify reservoir compartmentalization and reduce the uncertainty in the reserve estimates. This research report documents specific examples of integration and the economic benefits of integration.

  11. A Web-based clinical decision support system for depression care management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortney, John C; Pyne, Jeffrey M; Steven, Christopher A; Williams, J Silas; Hedrick, Richard G; Lunsford, Amanda K; Raney, William N; Ackerman, Betty A; Ducker, Loretta O; Bonner, Laura M; Smith, Jeffrey L

    2010-11-01

    To inform the design of future informatics systems that support the chronic care model. We describe the development and functionality of a decision support system for the chronic care model of depression treatment, known as collaborative care. Dissemination of evidence-based collaborative care models has been slow, and fidelity to the evidence base has been poor during implementation initiatives. Implementation could be facilitated by a decision support system for depression care managers, the cornerstone of the collaborative care model. The Net Decision Support System (https://www.netdss.net/) is a free Web-based system that was developed to support depression care manager activities and to facilitate the dissemination of collaborative care models that maintain high fidelity to the evidence base. The NetDSS was based on intervention materials used for a randomized trial of depression care management that improved clinical outcomes compared with usual care. The NetDSS was developed jointly by a cross-functional design team of psychiatrists, depression care managers, information technology specialists, technical writers, and researchers. The NetDSS has the following functional capabilities: patient registry, patient encounter scheduler, trial management, clinical decision support, progress note generator, and workload and outcomes report generator. The NetDSS guides the care manager through a self-documenting patient encounter using evidence-based scripts and self-scoring instruments. The NetDSS has been used to provide evidence-based depression care management to more than 1700 primary care patients. Intervention protocols can be successfully converted to Web-based decision support systems that facilitate the implementation of evidence-based chronic care models into routine care with high fidelity.

  12. Managers’ Personality Traits Over Management Styles and Decision-Making Styles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beliz Ülgen

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper seeks to offer a contribution to the extent literature on the role of managers’ personality characteristics over management styles and decision-making styles. We have prepared a questionnaire which consists of Girgin’s (2007 personality scale adaptation from Goldberg (1992, Kurban’s (2015 decision-making scale adopted from Scott and Bruce (1995, and Yıldızhan’s (2012 management style scale. The questionnaire is conducted among managers and employees in various sectors in Istanbul via the single random sampling method. Frequency analysis is applied to descriptive findings. In order to determine reliability and validity of the scales, reliability and factor analysis are performed. We have focused on investigating the impact of managers’ personality traits on management styles and decision-making styles by applying the Multivariate Regression Model and Correlation Analysis. The result of the factor analysis revealed that the three dimensions (extraversion, neuroticism, conscientiousness of big-five personality traits have a significant effect on some dimensions of managers’ decision making and management styles.

  13. Top-Management Decision Making and Strategies : An Approach to a Theory of Leadership-Initiated Strategies(General Contribution)

    OpenAIRE

    藤田, 東久夫; Tokuo, FUJITA; 株式会社サトー; Sato Corporation

    2006-01-01

    The article clarifies the relationship between top-management decisions and strategies. Whereas prior theoretical treatments of top-management strategies are both logical and managerial, the author recognizes the ad hoc nature of top-management decisions, which rely upon intuition and inspiration, and proposes a theory of strategies that emerge through top-management leadership. This theory of leadership-initiated strategies sees a balance between leadership and management functions as essent...

  14. Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wibbenmeyer, Matthew J; Hand, Michael S; Calkin, David E; Venn, Tyron J; Thompson, Matthew P

    2013-06-01

    Federal policy has embraced risa management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risas of ecological damage are optimally balanced when management decisions are free from biases, risa aversion, and risa seeking. Of primary concern in this article is how managers respond to wildfire risa, including the potential effect of wildfires (on ecological values, structures, and safety) and the likelihood of different fire outcomes. We use responses to a choice experiment questionnaire of U.S. federal wildfire managers to measure attitudes toward several components of wildfire risa and to test whether observed risa attitudes are consistent with the efficient allocation of wildfire suppression resources. Our results indicate that fire managers' decisions are consistent with nonexpected utility theories of decisions under risa. Managers may overallocate firefighting resources when the likelihood or potential magnitude of damage from fires is low, and sensitivity to changes in the probability of fire outcomes depends on whether probabilities are close to one or zero and the magnitude of the potential harm. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Use of decision trees for evaluating severe accident management strategies in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Nuclerar Engineering; Lee, Yongjin; Jerng, Dong Wook [Chung-Ang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). School of Energy Systems Engineering

    2016-07-15

    Accident management strategies are defined to innovative actions taken by plant operators to prevent core damage or to maintain the sound containment integrity. Such actions minimize the chance of offsite radioactive substance leaks that lead to and intensify core damage under power plant accident conditions. Accident management extends the concept of Defense in Depth against core meltdown accidents. In pressurized water reactors, emergency operating procedures are performed to extend the core cooling time. The effectiveness of Severe Accident Management Guidance (SAMG) became an important issue. Severe accident management strategies are evaluated with a methodology utilizing the decision tree technique.

  16. Enabling Water Quality Management Decision Support and Public Outreach Using Cloud-Computing Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, A. Y.; Scanlon, B. R.; Uhlman, K.

    2013-12-01

    Watershed management is a participatory process that requires collaboration among multiple groups of people. Environmental decision support systems (EDSS) have long been used to support such co-management and co-learning processes in watershed management. However, implementing and maintaining EDSS in-house can be a significant burden to many water agencies because of budget, technical, and policy constraints. Basing on experiences from several web-GIS environmental management projects in Texas, we showcase how cloud-computing services can help shift the design and hosting of EDSS from the traditional client-server-based platforms to be simple clients of cloud-computing services.

  17. A FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES EFFECTIVENESS EVALUATION AS A CONDITION OF CORPORATE MANAGEMENT DECISIONS MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliia Bieliaieva

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to substantiate, on the real figures, the need for enterprise’s financial and economic activities analysis as a condition of management decisions making to achieve the success of the company. Methodology. The research is based on a comparison and analysis of data from the organization top management. So using matrix analysis in the paper, the financial and economic activities effectiveness is evaluated. Based on these calculations, it is possible to make conclusions about the necessity of an identified management decisions regarding the future activity of the company. Results. Daily managers of various function levels accept hundreds and thousands of decisions regarding seemingly slight problems of the organization in general. At the same time, every such a decision, especially relating to the activity of the whole structure, should be clearly justified. Such a need stems from the fact that every decision leads to certain consequences. If there is a need to make a decision relating to the future of the enterprise (e.g., embodiment, reorganization, etc., it should be based on the data of the entire structure. And that is generally very difficult to do. Many factors complicate the possibility of comprehensive evaluation of the company’s activity. At the same time, analysis of basic indicators will provide the specialist with some directions according to which the priority of the analysis can be indicated and appropriate management decision can be made. Practical implications. It is built an effectiveness matrix of financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Analysis of financial and economic activities makes it possible to design necessary strategic and tactical plan for the enterprise development, revealing its reserves of production efficiency increasing. So the aim of the paper is the assessment of the effectiveness of financial and economic activities of the company on the base of matrix analysis as a

  18. Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

    2011-01-01

    Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

  19. Life in the slow lane; biogeochemistry of biodegraded petroleum containing reservoirs and implications for energy recovery and carbon management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Head, Ian M.; Gray, Neil D.; Larter, Stephen R.

    2014-01-01

    Our understanding of the processes underlying the formation of heavy oil has been transformed in the last decade. The process was once thought to be driven by oxygen delivered to deep petroleum reservoirs by meteoric water. This paradigm has been replaced by a view that the process is anaerobic and frequently associated with methanogenic hydrocarbon degradation. The thermal history of a reservoir exerts a fundamental control on the occurrence of biodegraded petroleum, and microbial activity is focused at the base of the oil column in the oil water transition zone, that represents a hotspot in the petroleum reservoir biome. Here we present a synthesis of new and existing microbiological, geochemical, and biogeochemical data that expands our view of the processes that regulate deep life in petroleum reservoir ecosystems and highlights interactions of a range of biotic and abiotic factors that determine whether petroleum is likely to be biodegraded in situ, with important consequences for oil exploration and production. Specifically we propose that the salinity of reservoir formation waters exerts a key control on the occurrence of biodegraded heavy oil reservoirs and introduce the concept of palaeopickling. We also evaluate the interaction between temperature and salinity to explain the occurrence of non-degraded oil in reservoirs where the temperature has not reached the 80–90°C required for palaeopasteurization. In addition we evaluate several hypotheses that might explain the occurrence of organisms conventionally considered to be aerobic, in nominally anoxic petroleum reservoir habitats. Finally we discuss the role of microbial processes for energy recovery as we make the transition from fossil fuel reliance, and how these fit within the broader socioeconomic landscape of energy futures. PMID:25426105

  20. A Decision Making Model for the Evaluation of Supply Chain Execution and Management Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinan Apak

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A Supply Chain Execution and Management (SCEM system is an enterprise application that integrates all of the necessary supply chain functions into a single system. These functions range from common ones such as warehouse and transportation management to less known ones such as demand management. In order to execute and manage the supply chain processes successfully, organisations need a comprehensive evaluation approach to determine the most suitable system. The evaluation of an SCEM system involves numerous decision making criteria. Moreover, it is usually characterised with uncertainty and vagueness since it is very difficult to rate SCEM system alternatives with exact terms. To cope with this problem, a fuzzy logic-based approach is developed in this study. This approach main integrates the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process to weight the decision criteria and the Fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution to rate alternatives. A real life example is provided to demonstrate the capability of the proposed approach.