Frameworks for amending reservoir water management

Science.gov (United States)

Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

2013-01-01

Managing water storage and withdrawals in many reservoirs requires establishing seasonal targets for water levels (i.e., rule curves) that are influenced by regional precipitation and diverse water demands. Rule curves are established as an attempt to balance various water needs such as flood control, irrigation, and environmental benefits such as fish and wildlife management. The processes and challenges associated with amending rule curves to balance multiuse needs are complicated and mostly unfamiliar to non-US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) natural resource managers and to the public. To inform natural resource managers and the public we describe the policies and process involved in amending rule curves in USACE reservoirs, including 3 frameworks: a general investigation, a continuing authority program, and the water control plan. Our review suggests that water management in reservoirs can be amended, but generally a multitude of constraints and competing demands must be addressed before such a change can be realized.

Natural and human drivers of salinity in reservoirs and their implications in water supply operation through a Decision Support System

Science.gov (United States)

Contreras, Eva; Gómez-Beas, Raquel; Linares-Sáez, Antonio

2016-04-01

changes from 3800 to 5100 μScm-1 in the deepest layers are found with a similar daily water inflow. On the other hand, when reservoir water level is low, salinity increases around 1000 μScm-1 are found with a 2 m water level falling. In view of the influence of water level in the reservoir dynamics, this factor should be considered when dam operation decisions are taken by managers in terms of satisfying the water demand. The results will be implemented in a Decision Support System that is being displayed in the Guadalhorce River and which includes prediction of water quantity and quality in the reservoir in terms of salinity, involving water level and water inflow forecasting as the main factors to control the state of the reservoir and therefore with implications in water management. This methodology could be implemented in other reservoirs with high salinity and be adapted to other substances (such as nutrients and heavy metals) associated to water inflow in water bodies where water quality and quantity are driven by human decisions factors besides natural factors such as floods and dynamics of flows in the reservoir.

Mrica Reservoir Sedimentation: Current Situation and Future Necessary Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Puji Utomo

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Mrica Reservoir is one of many reservoirs located in Central Java that experienced a considerably high sedimentation during the last ten years. This condition has caused a rapid decrease in reservoir capacity. Various countermeasures have been introduced to reduce the rate of the reservoir sedimentation through catchment management and reservoir operation by means of flushing and/or dredging. However, the sedimentation remains intensive so that the fulfillment of water demand for electrical power generation was seriously affected. This paper presents the results of evaluation on the dynamics of the purpose of this research is to evaluate the sediment balance of the Mrica Reservoir based on two different scenarios, i.e. the existing condition and another certain type of reservoir management. The study on sediment balance was carried out by estimating the sediment inflow applying sheet erosion method in combination with the analysis of sediment rating curve. The measurement of the deposited sediment rate in the reservoir was conducted through the periodic echo sounding, whereas identification of the number of sediment that has been released from the reservoir was carried out through the observation on both flushing and dredging activities. The results show that during the last decade, the rate of the sediment inflow was approximately 5.869 MCM/year, whereas the released sediment from the reservoir was 4.097 MCM/year. In order to maintain the reservoir capacity, therefore, at least 1.772 MCM/year should be released from the reservoir by means of either flushing or dredging. Sedimentation management may prolong the reservoir’s service life to exceed the design life. Without sediment management, the lifetime of the reservoir would have finished by 2016, whereas with the proper management the lifetime may be extended to 2025.

An environmental data base for all Hydro-Quebec reservoirs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demers, C.

1988-01-01

Hydro-Quebec has created two management positions specifically for reservoirs, namely Reservoir Ecology Advisor and Reservoir Management Advisor. To assist management decisions, a means was required of bringing together all existing environmental information for each reservoir operated by Hydro-Quebec, including storage reservoirs, auxiliary reservoirs and forebays. A relational database using Reflex software was developed on a network of Macintosh computers. The database contains five blocks of information: general information, and physical, physiochemical, biologic and socioeconomic characteristics for each reservoir. Data will be collected on over 100 sites, and the tool will form the basis for developing a medium-range study program on reservoir ecology. The program must take into account the physical, biological and socioeconomic aspects of the environment, as well as the concerns of management personnel operating the reservoirs, the local population, reservoir users, and various government departments. 2 figs

A Study of the Optimal Planning Model for Reservoir Sustainable Management- A Case Study of Shihmen Reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2017-12-01

The reservoir management in Taiwan faces lots of challenge. Massive sediment caused by landslide were flushed into reservoir, which will decrease capacity, rise the turbidity, and increase supply risk. Sediment usually accompanies nutrition that will cause eutrophication problem. Moreover, the unevenly distribution of rainfall cause water supply instability. Hence, how to ensure sustainable use of reservoirs has become an important task in reservoir management. The purpose of the study is developing an optimal planning model for reservoir sustainable management to find out an optimal operation rules of reservoir flood control and sediment sluicing. The model applies Genetic Algorithms to combine with the artificial neural network of hydraulic analysis and reservoir sediment movement. The main objective of operation rules in this study is to prevent reservoir outflow caused downstream overflow, minimum the gap between initial and last water level of reservoir, and maximum sluicing sediment efficiency. A case of Shihmen reservoir was used to explore the different between optimal operating rule and the current operation of the reservoir. The results indicate optimal operating rules tended to open desilting tunnel early and extend open duration during flood discharge period. The results also show the sluicing sediment efficiency of optimal operating rule is 36%, 44%, 54% during Typhoon Jangmi, Typhoon Fung-Wong, and Typhoon Sinlaku respectively. The results demonstrate the optimal operation rules do play a role in extending the service life of Shihmen reservoir and protecting the safety of downstream. The study introduces a low cost strategy, alteration of operation reservoir rules, into reservoir sustainable management instead of pump dredger in order to improve the problem of elimination of reservoir sediment and high cost.

Multipurpose Water Reservoir Management: An Evolutionary Multiobjective Optimization Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luís A. Scola

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The reservoirs that feed large hydropower plants should be managed in order to provide other uses for the water resources. Those uses include, for instance, flood control and avoidance, irrigation, navigability in the rivers, and other ones. This work presents an evolutionary multiobjective optimization approach for the study of multiple water usages in multiple interlinked reservoirs, including both power generation objectives and other objectives not related to energy generation. The classical evolutionary algorithm NSGA-II is employed as the basic multiobjective optimization machinery, being modified in order to cope with specific problem features. The case studies, which include the analysis of a problem which involves an objective of navigability on the river, are tailored in order to illustrate the usefulness of the data generated by the proposed methodology for decision-making on the problem of operation planning of multiple reservoirs with multiple usages. It is shown that it is even possible to use the generated data in order to determine the cost of any new usage of the water, in terms of the opportunity cost that can be measured on the revenues related to electric energy sales.

New developments in high resolution borehole seismology and their applications to reservoir development and management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paulsson, B.N.P. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

1997-08-01

Single-well seismology, Reverse Vertical Seismic Profiles (VSP`s) and Crosswell seismology are three new seismic techniques that we jointly refer to as borehole seismology. Borehole seismic techniques are of great interest because they can obtain much higher resolution images of oil and gas reservoirs than what is obtainable with currently used seismic techniques. The quality of oil and gas reservoir management decisions depend on the knowledge of both the large and the fine scale features in the reservoirs. Borehole seismology is capable of mapping reservoirs with an order of magnitude improvement in resolution compared with currently used technology. In borehole seismology we use a high frequency seismic source in an oil or gas well and record the signal in the same well, in other wells, or on the surface of the earth.

Optimisation of decision making under uncertainty throughout field lifetime: A fractured reservoir example

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Dan; Demyanov, Vasily; Christie, Mike; Bakay, Alexander; Gopa, Konstantin

2016-10-01

Assessing the change in uncertainty in reservoir production forecasts over field lifetime is rarely undertaken because of the complexity of joining together the individual workflows. This becomes particularly important in complex fields such as naturally fractured reservoirs. The impact of this problem has been identified in previous and many solutions have been proposed but never implemented on complex reservoir problems due to the computational cost of quantifying uncertainty and optimising the reservoir development, specifically knowing how many and what kind of simulations to run. This paper demonstrates a workflow that propagates uncertainty throughout field lifetime, and into the decision making process by a combination of a metric-based approach, multi-objective optimisation and Bayesian estimation of uncertainty. The workflow propagates uncertainty estimates from appraisal into initial development optimisation, then updates uncertainty through history matching and finally propagates it into late-life optimisation. The combination of techniques applied, namely the metric approach and multi-objective optimisation, help evaluate development options under uncertainty. This was achieved with a significantly reduced number of flow simulations, such that the combined workflow is computationally feasible to run for a real-field problem. This workflow is applied to two synthetic naturally fractured reservoir (NFR) case studies in appraisal, field development, history matching and mid-life EOR stages. The first is a simple sector model, while the second is a more complex full field example based on a real life analogue. This study infers geological uncertainty from an ensemble of models that are based on the carbonate Brazilian outcrop which are propagated through the field lifetime, before and after the start of production, with the inclusion of production data significantly collapsing the spread of P10-P90 in reservoir forecasts. The workflow links uncertainty

Sediment management for reservoir

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rahman, A.

2005-01-01

All natural lakes and reservoirs whether on rivers, tributaries or off channel storages are doomed to be sited up. Pakistan has two major reservoirs of Tarbela and Managla and shallow lake created by Chashma Barrage. Tarbela and Mangla Lakes are losing their capacities ever since first impounding, Tarbela since 1974 and Mangla since 1967. Tarbela Reservoir receives average annual flow of about 62 MAF and sediment deposits of 0.11 MAF whereas Mangla gets about 23 MAF of average annual flows and is losing its storage at the rate of average 34,000 MAF annually. The loss of storage is a great concern and studies for Tarbela were carried out by TAMS and Wallingford to sustain its capacity whereas no study has been done for Mangla as yet except as part of study for Raised Mangla, which is only desk work. Delta of Tarbala reservoir has advanced to about 6.59 miles (Pivot Point) from power intakes. In case of liquefaction of delta by tremor as low as 0.12g peak ground acceleration the power tunnels I, 2 and 3 will be blocked. Minimum Pool of reservoir is being raised so as to check the advance of delta. Mangla delta will follow the trend of Tarbela. Tarbela has vast amount of data as reservoir is surveyed every year, whereas Mangla Reservoir survey was done at five-year interval, which has now been proposed .to be reduced to three-year interval. In addition suspended sediment sampling of inflow streams is being done by Surface Water Hydrology Project of WAPDA as also some bed load sampling. The problem of Chasma Reservoir has also been highlighted, as it is being indiscriminately being filled up and drawdown several times a year without regard to its reaction to this treatment. The Sediment Management of these reservoirs is essential and the paper discusses pros and cons of various alternatives. (author)

Reservoir area of influence and implications for fisheries management

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Dustin R.; Chizinski, Christopher J.; Pope, Kevin L.

2015-01-01

Understanding the spatial area that a reservoir draws anglers from, defined as the reservoir's area of influence, and the potential overlap of that area of influence between reservoirs is important for fishery managers. Our objective was to define the area of influence for reservoirs of the Salt Valley regional fishery in southeastern Nebraska using kernel density estimation. We used angler survey data obtained from in-person interviews at 17 reservoirs during 2009–2012. The area of influence, defined by the 95% kernel density, for reservoirs within the Salt Valley regional fishery varied, indicating that anglers use reservoirs differently across the regional fishery. Areas of influence reveal angler preferences in a regional context, indicating preferred reservoirs with a greater area of influence. Further, differences in areas of influences across time and among reservoirs can be used as an assessment following management changes on an individual reservoir or within a regional fishery. Kernel density estimation provided a clear method for creating spatial maps of areas of influence and provided a two-dimensional view of angler travel, as opposed to the traditional mean travel distance assessment.

Visualising Pareto-optimal trade-offs helps move beyond monetary-only criteria for water management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

2014-05-01

Water related eco-system services are important to the livelihoods of the poorest sectors of society in developing countries. Degradation or loss of these services can increase the vulnerability of people decreasing their capacity to support themselves. New approaches to help guide water resources management decisions are needed which account for the non-market value of ecosystem goods and services. In case studies from Brazil and Kenya we demonstrate the capability of many objective Pareto-optimal trade-off analysis to help decision makers balance economic and non-market benefits from the management of existing multi-reservoir systems. A multi-criteria search algorithm is coupled to a water resources management simulator of each basin to generate a set of Pareto-approximate trade-offs representing the best case management decisions. In both cases, volume dependent reservoir release rules are the management decisions being optimised. In the Kenyan case we further assess the impacts of proposed irrigation investments, and how the possibility of new investments impacts the system's trade-offs. During the multi-criteria search (optimisation), performance of different sets of management decisions (policies) is assessed against case-specific objective functions representing provision of water supply and irrigation, hydropower generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Results are visualised as trade-off surfaces to help decision makers understand the impacts of different policies on a broad range of stakeholders and to assist in decision-making. These case studies show how the approach can reveal unexpected opportunities for win-win solutions, and quantify the trade-offs between investing to increase agricultural revenue and negative impacts on protected ecosystems which support rural livelihoods.

Reservoir management under geological uncertainty using fast model update

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hanea, R.; Evensen, G.; Hustoft, L.; Ek, T.; Chitu, A.; Wilschut, F.

2015-01-01

Statoil is implementing "Fast Model Update (FMU)," an integrated and automated workflow for reservoir modeling and characterization. FMU connects all steps and disciplines from seismic depth conversion to prediction and reservoir management taking into account relevant reservoir uncertainty. FMU

The role of rainfall variability in reservoir storage management at ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Reservoir operation and management is usually patterned after the background of long standing water resources management experience. Reservoir management for optimum power production at any hydropower station requires constant assessment of the quantity of available water. The hydrographic responses of flow ...

Master plan: Guntersville Reservoir Aquatic Plant Management. Executive summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1992-12-31

In 1989, Congress provided funding to start a five-year comprehensive project to manage aquatic plants in Guntersville Reservoir, to be jointly implemented by the US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA). TVA serves as the overall project coordinator and is the lead agency for this project. Known as the Joint Agency Guntersville Project (JAGP), the project will test and demonstrate innovative management technologies, and incorporate the most effective technologies into a comprehensive aquatic plant management plan for Guntersville Reservoir. The JAGP is intended to serve as a National Demonstration Project for aquatic plant management. As part of this JAGP, the Master Plan for Aquatic Plant Management for the Guntersville Reservoir Project, Alabama-Tennessee is authorized by Corps Contract Number DACW62-90-C-0067.

Managing a reservoir-based hydro-energy plant: building understanding in the buy and sell decisions in a changing environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ackere, A. van; Ruud, Morten; Davidsen, Paal

2005-01-01

This paper describes a modelling process at a Norwegian chemical producer, who owns 20% of a reservoir based hydro-energy plant. While the initial objective was to increase the profitability of the energy plant (in particular by an improved understanding of buying and selling decisions and a reconciliation of the managerial and engineering points of view in the context of a liberalised energy market) the process resulted in the company's decision to refocus on its core-business. The process illustrates how a modelling process can lead to a fundamental re framing of the issue, resulting in major change for the company

Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling, Class II

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bergeron, Jack; Blasingame, Tom; Doublet, Louis; Kelkar, Mohan; Freeman, George; Callard, Jeff; Moore, David; Davies, David; Vessell, Richard; Pregger, Brian; Dixon, Bill; Bezant, Bryce

2000-03-16

The major purpose of this project was to demonstrate the use of cost effective reservoir characterization and management tools that will be helpful to both independent and major operators for the optimal development of heterogeneous, low permeability carbonate reservoirs such as the North Robertson (Clearfork) Unit.

Many-Objective Reservoir Policy Identification and Refinement to Reduce Institutional Myopia in Water Management

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, M.; Herman, J. D.; Castelletti, A.; Reed, P. M.

2013-12-01

Institutional inertia strongly limits our ability to adapt water reservoir operations to better manage growing water demands as well as their associated uncertainties in a changing climate. Although it has long been recognized that these systems are generally framed in heterogeneous socio-economic contexts involving a myriad of conflicting, non-commensurable operating objectives, our broader understanding of the multiobjective consequences of current operating rules as well as their vulnerability to hydroclimatic uncertainties is severely limited. This study proposes a decision analytic framework to overcome policy inertia and myopia in complex river basin management contexts. The framework combines reservoir policy identification and many-objective optimization under uncertainty to characterize current operations and discover key tradeoffs between alternative policies for balancing evolving demands and system uncertainties. The approach is demonstrated on the Conowingo Dam, located within the Lower Susquehanna River, USA. The Lower Susquehanna River is an interstate water body that has been subject to intensive water management efforts due to the system's competing demands from urban water supply, atomic power plant cooling, hydropower production, and federally regulated environmental flows. Initially our proposed framework uses available streamflow observations to implicitly identify the Conowingo Dam's current but unknown operating policy. This baseline policy is identified by fitting radial basis functions to existing system dynamics. Our assumption in the baseline policy is that the dam operator is represented as a rational agent seeking to maximize primary operational objectives (i.e., guaranteeing the public water supply and maximizing the hydropower revenue). The quality of the identified baseline policy is evaluated by its ability to replicate historical release dynamics. Once identified, the historical baseline policy then provides a means of representing

Monthly Optimal Reservoirs Operation for Multicrop Deficit Irrigation under Fuzzy Stochastic Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liudong Zhang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available An uncertain monthly reservoirs operation and multicrop deficit irrigation model was proposed under conjunctive use of underground and surface water for water resources optimization management. The objective is to maximize the total crop yield of the entire irrigation districts. Meanwhile, ecological water remained for the downstream demand. Because of the shortage of water resources, the monthly crop water production function was adopted for multiperiod deficit irrigation management. The model reflects the characteristics of water resources repetitive transformation in typical inland rivers irrigation system. The model was used as an example for water resources optimization management in Shiyang River Basin, China. Uncertainties in reservoir management shown as fuzzy probability were treated through chance-constraint parameter for decision makers. Necessity of dominance (ND was used to analyse the advantages of the method. The optimization results including reservoirs real-time operation policy, deficit irrigation management, and the available water resource allocation could be used to provide decision support for local irrigation management. Besides, the strategies obtained could help with the risk analysis of reservoirs operation stochastically.

Reservoir management under consideration of stratification and hydraulic phenomena

OpenAIRE

Nandalal, K.D.W.

1995-01-01

Reservoirs are the most important components in a water resources system. They are used to store water to extend its temporal availability. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water change when impounded in reservoirs. This implies the possibility of using reservoirs for the control of the quality of water besides merely satisfying the quantity requirement. This study presents several techniques formulated to manage a reservoir when both quantity and quality of...

INCREASING WATERFLOOD RESERVES IN THE WILMINGTON OIL FIELD THROUGH IMPROVED RESERVOIR CHARACTERIZATION AND RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scott Walker; Chris Phillips; Roy Koerner; Don Clarke; Dan Moos; Kwasi Tagbor

2002-02-28

This project increased recoverable waterflood reserves in slope and basin reservoirs through improved reservoir characterization and reservoir management. The particular application of this project is in portions of Fault Blocks IV and V of the Wilmington Oil Field, in Long Beach, California, but the approach is widely applicable in slope and basin reservoirs. Transferring technology so that it can be applied in other sections of the Wilmington Field and by operators in other slope and basin reservoirs is a primary component of the project. This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate. Although these reservoirs have been waterflooded over 40 years, researchers have found areas of remaining oil saturation. Areas such as the top sand in the Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the western fault slivers of Upper Terminal Zone Fault Block V, the bottom sands of the Tar Zone Fault Block V, and the eastern edge of Fault Block IV in both the Upper Terminal and Lower Terminal Zones all show significant remaining oil saturation. Each area of interest was uncovered emphasizing a different type of reservoir characterization technique or practice. This was not the original strategy but was necessitated by the different levels of progress in each of the project activities.

Design and development of bio-inspired framework for reservoir operation optimization

Science.gov (United States)

Asvini, M. Sakthi; Amudha, T.

2017-12-01

Frameworks for optimal reservoir operation play an important role in the management of water resources and delivery of economic benefits. Effective utilization and conservation of water from reservoirs helps to manage water deficit periods. The main challenge in reservoir optimization is to design operating rules that can be used to inform real-time decisions on reservoir release. We develop a bio-inspired framework for the optimization of reservoir release to satisfy the diverse needs of various stakeholders. In this work, single-objective optimization and multiobjective optimization problems are formulated using an algorithm known as "strawberry optimization" and tested with actual reservoir data. Results indicate that well planned reservoir operations lead to efficient deployment of the reservoir water with the help of optimal release patterns.

Application of integrated reservoir management and reservoir characterization to optimize infill drilling. Quarterly progress report, June 13, 1995--September 12, 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pande, P.K.

1995-09-12

At this stage of the reservoir characterization research, the main emphasis is on the geostatistics and reservoir simulation. Progress is reported on geological analysis, reservoir simulation, and reservoir management.

Metal and physico-chemical variations at a hydroelectric reservoir analyzed by Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks: environmental management and policy/decision-making tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Cavalcante, Y L; Hauser-Davis, R A; Saraiva, A C F; Brandão, I L S; Oliveira, T F; Silveira, A M

2013-01-01

This paper compared and evaluated seasonal variations in physico-chemical parameters and metals at a hydroelectric power station reservoir by applying Multivariate Analyses and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) statistical techniques. A Factor Analysis was used to reduce the number of variables: the first factor was composed of elements Ca, K, Mg and Na, and the second by Chemical Oxygen Demand. The ANN showed 100% correct classifications in training and validation samples. Physico-chemical analyses showed that water pH values were not statistically different between the dry and rainy seasons, while temperature, conductivity, alkalinity, ammonia and DO were higher in the dry period. TSS, hardness and COD, on the other hand, were higher during the rainy season. The statistical analyses showed that Ca, K, Mg and Na are directly connected to the Chemical Oxygen Demand, which indicates a possibility of their input into the reservoir system by domestic sewage and agricultural run-offs. These statistical applications, thus, are also relevant in cases of environmental management and policy decision-making processes, to identify which factors should be further studied and/or modified to recover degraded or contaminated water bodies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Review and Evaluation of Reservoir Management Strategies for Harmful Algal Blooms

Science.gov (United States)

2017-07-28

Abstract The purpose of this report is to review and evaluate available infor- mation regarding reservoir operation strategies for management of...12 3 Operations Management Examples ............................................................................ 16...report is to review and evaluate available information regarding reservoir operation strategies for management of harmful algal ERDC/EL TR-17-11 2

Sparse Bayesian learning machine for real-time management of reservoir releases

Science.gov (United States)

Khalil, Abedalrazq; McKee, Mac; Kemblowski, Mariush; Asefa, Tirusew

2005-11-01

Water scarcity and uncertainties in forecasting future water availabilities present serious problems for basin-scale water management. These problems create a need for intelligent prediction models that learn and adapt to their environment in order to provide water managers with decision-relevant information related to the operation of river systems. This manuscript presents examples of state-of-the-art techniques for forecasting that combine excellent generalization properties and sparse representation within a Bayesian paradigm. The techniques are demonstrated as decision tools to enhance real-time water management. A relevance vector machine, which is a probabilistic model, has been used in an online fashion to provide confident forecasts given knowledge of some state and exogenous conditions. In practical applications, online algorithms should recognize changes in the input space and account for drift in system behavior. Support vectors machines lend themselves particularly well to the detection of drift and hence to the initiation of adaptation in response to a recognized shift in system structure. The resulting model will normally have a structure and parameterization that suits the information content of the available data. The utility and practicality of this proposed approach have been demonstrated with an application in a real case study involving real-time operation of a reservoir in a river basin in southern Utah.

The management of the Diama reservoir (Senegal River)

Science.gov (United States)

Duvail, S.; Hamerlynck, O.

2003-04-01

The Senegal River is regulated by 2 dams built in the 1980's by the "Organisation pour la Mise en Valeur du fleuve Sénégal" (OMVS), a river basin management organisation grouping Mali, Senegal and Mauritania. The initial objectives of OMVS, which were to regulate the Senegal flows in order to develop irrigated agriculture, produce hydropower and facilitate river navigation has been only partially met. The maintenance of the annual flood by the upstream dam (Manantali), initially to be phased out when irrigated agriculture would have replaced the traditional recession agriculture, is now scheduled to continue indefinitely on the basis of socio-economic and environmental concerns. This change of mindset has however not affected the management of the downstream dam (Diama). Initially conceived as a salt-wedge dam, its function evolved to a reservoir dam with a high and constant water level. During the dry season, the water level is maintained high and constant in order to reduce the pumping costs for the irrigated agriculture in the delta. During the flood season (July-October) the dam is primarily managed for risk avoidance: limit flooding downstream of the dam (especially the city of St. Louis) and secure the infrastructure of the dam itself. The permanent freshwater reservoir lake has adverse effects on ecosystems, on human and animal health and a high social cost for the traditional stakeholders of the deltaic floodplain (fishermen, livestock keepers and gatherers). Upstream of the reservoir there is an excess of stagnant freshwater and managers are confronted with the development of invasive species while substantial downstream flooding is essential for the estuarine ecosystems and local livelihoods. The presentation will review the different approaches to the management of the Diama reservoir and proposes different management scenarios and compares their economical, environmental, and social costs and benefits.

Operational trade-offs in reservoir control

Science.gov (United States)

Georgakakos, Aris P.

1993-11-01

Reservoir operation decisions require constant reevaluation in the face of conflicting objectives, varying hydrologic conditions, and frequent operational policy changes. Optimality is a relative concept very much dependent on the circumstances under which a decision is made. More than anything else, reservoir management authorities need the means to assess the impacts of various operational options. It is their responsibility to define what is desirable after a thorough evaluation of the existing circumstances. This article presents a model designed to generate operational trade-offs common among reservoir systems. The model avoids an all-encompassing problem formulation and distinguishes three operational modes (levels) corresponding to normal, drought, and flood operations. Each level addresses only relevant system elements and uses a static and a dynamic control module to optimize turbine performance within each planning period and temporally. The model is used for planning the operation of the Savannah River System.

Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

2017-11-13

The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Quantum Bayesian perspective for intelligence reservoir characterization, monitoring and management

Science.gov (United States)

Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia; de Jesús Correa, María

2017-10-01

The paper starts with a brief review of the literature about uncertainty in geological, geophysical and petrophysical data. In particular, we present the viewpoints of experts in geophysics on the application of Bayesian inference and subjective probability. Then we present arguments that the use of classical probability theory (CP) does not match completely the structure of geophysical data. We emphasize that such data are characterized by contextuality and non-Kolmogorovness (the impossibility to use the CP model), incompleteness as well as incompatibility of some geophysical measurements. These characteristics of geophysical data are similar to the characteristics of quantum physical data. Notwithstanding all this, contextuality can be seen as a major deviation of quantum theory from classical physics. In particular, the contextual probability viewpoint is the essence of the Växjö interpretation of quantum mechanics. We propose to use quantum probability (QP) for decision-making during the characterization, modelling, exploring and management of the intelligent hydrocarbon reservoir. Quantum Bayesianism (QBism), one of the recently developed information interpretations of quantum theory, can be used as the interpretational basis for such QP decision-making in geology, geophysics and petroleum projects design and management. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

Dredged Material Management Plan and Environmental Impact Statement. McNary Reservoir and Lower Snake River Reservoirs. Appendix C: Economic Analysis

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

2002-01-01

...; for managment of dredged material from these reservoirs; and for maintenance of flow conveyance capacity at the most upstream extent of the Lower Granite reservoir for the remaining economic life of the dam and reservoir project (to year 2074...

A Spatial Decision Support System to incorporate hydro-economic modeling results in the management of water resources under decentralized institutional arrangements in a semiarid reservoir region in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Alcoforado de Moraes, Márcia; Silva, Gerald; Siegmund-Schultze, Marianna

2017-04-01

The integration of economic and hydrological components in models, aimed to support evaluating alternatives of water allocation policies, is promising, though, challenging. Worldwide, these models have been used primarily in academia, and so far seldom by water managers for practical purposes. Ideally, the models should be available through a Decision Support System. The São Francisco River Basin in Northeast of Brazil has around 48% of its area in a semi-arid region. Irrigation and public water supply are the primary water use sectors, along with hydropower utilization. The water for electricity generation is stored in two large reservoirs, built 30 to 50 years ago under the premise of regulating flows for hydropower and controlling floods. Since 20 years, however, the law stipulates the multiple uses paradigm in a participatory and decentralized way. So far, only few rules laid down. Studies revealed that most of the respective institutions still needed to update their routines to the new paradigm. A hydro-economic model was developed and applied in order to determine the economically optimal water allocation of main users in that semiarid reservoir region. In order to make this model available to the decision makers, a minimum required is some form of manipulating data entry and output as well as some graphical interfaces. We propose and present the first features of a Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) with dedicated hydro-economic modules in a web-based Geographic Information System (GIS) environment for integrated water resource management. The open model platform should include geoprocessing tasks and water user related data management. The hydro-economic geoprocessing will link to generic optimization modeling systems, such as EXCEL Solver, GAMS and MATLAB. The institutions are deliberating or deciding over water allocation at different scales could use the generated information on potential economic benefits as a transparent basis for discussion. In

State of the art of reservoir sedimentation management in Spain

OpenAIRE

Avendaño Salas, Cándido; Sanz Montero, Esther; Cobo Rayán, Rafael

2000-01-01

Part of the total reservoir storage capacity in Spain (56 km3) is lost due to sedimentation processes taking place. Surveys carried out in 121 reservoirs indicate that 6% of them have undergone a capacity reduction of over 50%. However, most of them (81%) are characterised by a reservoir capacity loss below 20%. The most frequent methods used to control reservoir sedimentation in Spain fall into one of the following groups: reduction of sediment yield through basin management and removal of t...

Increasing Waterflood Reserves in the Wilmington Oil Field through Improved Reservoir Characterization and Reservoir Management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clarke, D.; Koerner, R.; Moos D.; Nguyen, J.; Phillips, C.; Tagbor, K.; Walker, S.

1999-04-05

This project used advanced reservoir characterization tools, including the pulsed acoustic cased-hole logging tool, geologic three-dimensional (3-D) modeling software, and commercially available reservoir management software to identify sands with remaining high oil saturation following waterflood. Production from the identified high oil saturated sands was stimulated by recompleting existing production and injection wells in these sands using conventional means as well as a short radius redrill candidate.

Conservation implications of weed management of lake reservoirs ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Management of weeds around lake reservoirs is often implemented to reduce any possibility of siltation. However, machineries used in weed management have resulted in habitat degradation and geometrical multiplication of weeds by chopping rhizomes and scattering seeds. In general, the removal offers some feedbacks ...

Evaluation of sediment management strategies on reservoir storage depletion rate: a case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ali, M.; Sterk, G.

2010-01-01

Sedimentation aspects have a major role during the design of new reservoir projects because life of the reservoir mainly depends upon sediment handling during reservoir operation. Therefore, proper sediment management strategies should be adopted to enhance the life span of reservoirs. Basha

Decision support system for use in smart wells for the development of oil reservoirs; Sistema de apoio a decisao para uso de pocos inteligentes no desenvolvimento de reservatorios de petroleo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Almeida, Luciana Faletti [Centro Federal de Educacao Tecnologica Celso Suckow da Fonseca (CEFET-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: faletti@ele.puc-rio.br; Pacheco, Marco Aurelio Cavalcanti; Vellasco, Marley Maria Bernardes Rebuzzi; Tupac Valdivia, Yvan Jesus; Lazo, Juan Guillermo [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC/Rio), RJ (Brazil)], e-mail: marco@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: marley@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: yvantv@ele.puc-rio.br, e-mail: juan@ele.puc-rio.br

2008-06-15

Reservoir management is an essential task aimed at the challenge of optimizing the exploration of petroliferous reservoirs. In response to such a challenge, the oil and gas industry has been developing new technologies, such as intelligent wells. These wells are intended to reduce the costs of the more commonplace restoring operations by controlling their technology. This work studies the development of intelligent fields and introduces a decision taking support system able to optimize, through evolutionary algorithms, the intelligent well technology control process considering the technical uncertainties: in valves and geological failures. Moreover, the system proposes to support decision taking, to use or not intelligent wells, given a reservoir ready to be explored or to receive expansion investments. The optimization seeks a strategy of pro-active control, in other words, act before the effect, seeking in the initial production times a configuration of valves capable of: delaying the arrival of the water cut of the production wells, accelerate the oil production or to improve the oil recovery. As a result, an operation that maximizes the NPV (Net present value). The model was tested in three reservoirs, the first being a synthetic reservoir, and the others with more realistic characteristics. (author)

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations: Bringing Science and Decision-Makers Together to Explore Use of Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Support Future Reservoir Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Ralph, F. M.; Jasperse, J.

2017-12-01

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a proposed strategy that is exploring inorporation of improved hydrometeorological forecasts of land-falling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast into reservoir operations. The first testbed for this strategy is Lake Mendocino, which is located in the East Fork of the 1485 mi2 Russian River Watershed in northern California. This project is guided by the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC). The SC is an ad hoc committee that consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current or improved technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve water supply reliability, enhance flood mitigation and support recovery of listed salmon for the Russian River of northern California. In 2015, the SC created a detailed work plan, which included a Preliminary Viability Assessment, which has now been completed. The SC developed a vision that operational efficiency would be improved by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water. FIRO would use available reservoir storage in an efficient manner by (1) better forecasting inflow (or lack of inflow) with enhanced technology, and (2) adapting operation in real time to meet the need for storage, rather than making storage available just in case it is needed. The envisioned FIRO strategy has the potential to simultaneously improve water supply reliability, flood protection, and ecosystem outcomes through a more efficient use of existing infrastructure while requiring minimal capital improvements in the physical structure of the dam. This presentation will provide an overview of the creation of the FIRO SC and how it operates, and describes the lessons learned through this partnership. Results in the FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment will be summarized and next steps described.

Variability in perceived satisfaction of reservoir management objectives

Science.gov (United States)

Owen, W.J.; Gates, T.K.; Flug, M.

1997-01-01

Fuzzy set theory provides a useful model to address imprecision in interpreting linguistically described objectives for reservoir management. Fuzzy membership functions can be used to represent degrees of objective satisfaction for different values of management variables. However, lack of background information, differing experiences and qualifications, and complex interactions of influencing factors can contribute to significant variability among membership functions derived from surveys of multiple experts. In the present study, probabilistic membership functions are used to model variability in experts' perceptions of satisfaction of objectives for hydropower generation, fish habitat, kayaking, rafting, and scenery preservation on the Green River through operations of Flaming Gorge Dam. Degree of variability in experts' perceptions differed among objectives but resulted in substantial uncertainty in estimation of optimal reservoir releases.

Analysis of real-time reservoir monitoring : reservoirs, strategies, & modeling.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mani, Seethambal S.; van Bloemen Waanders, Bart Gustaaf; Cooper, Scott Patrick; Jakaboski, Blake Elaine; Normann, Randy Allen; Jennings, Jim (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Gilbert, Bob (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lake, Larry W. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Weiss, Chester Joseph; Lorenz, John Clay; Elbring, Gregory Jay; Wheeler, Mary Fanett (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Thomas, Sunil G. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Rightley, Michael J.; Rodriguez, Adolfo (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Klie, Hector (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Banchs, Rafael (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Nunez, Emilio J. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Jablonowski, Chris (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX)

2006-11-01

The project objective was to detail better ways to assess and exploit intelligent oil and gas field information through improved modeling, sensor technology, and process control to increase ultimate recovery of domestic hydrocarbons. To meet this objective we investigated the use of permanent downhole sensors systems (Smart Wells) whose data is fed real-time into computational reservoir models that are integrated with optimized production control systems. The project utilized a three-pronged approach (1) a value of information analysis to address the economic advantages, (2) reservoir simulation modeling and control optimization to prove the capability, and (3) evaluation of new generation sensor packaging to survive the borehole environment for long periods of time. The Value of Information (VOI) decision tree method was developed and used to assess the economic advantage of using the proposed technology; the VOI demonstrated the increased subsurface resolution through additional sensor data. Our findings show that the VOI studies are a practical means of ascertaining the value associated with a technology, in this case application of sensors to production. The procedure acknowledges the uncertainty in predictions but nevertheless assigns monetary value to the predictions. The best aspect of the procedure is that it builds consensus within interdisciplinary teams The reservoir simulation and modeling aspect of the project was developed to show the capability of exploiting sensor information both for reservoir characterization and to optimize control of the production system. Our findings indicate history matching is improved as more information is added to the objective function, clearly indicating that sensor information can help in reducing the uncertainty associated with reservoir characterization. Additional findings and approaches used are described in detail within the report. The next generation sensors aspect of the project evaluated sensors and packaging

Simulation of California's Major Reservoirs Outflow Using Data Mining Technique

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, T.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2014-12-01

The reservoir's outflow is controlled by reservoir operators, which is different from the upstream inflow. The outflow is more important than the reservoir's inflow for the downstream water users. In order to simulate the complicated reservoir operation and extract the outflow decision making patterns for California's 12 major reservoirs, we build a data-driven, computer-based ("artificial intelligent") reservoir decision making tool, using decision regression and classification tree approach. This is a well-developed statistical and graphical modeling methodology in the field of data mining. A shuffled cross validation approach is also employed to extract the outflow decision making patterns and rules based on the selected decision variables (inflow amount, precipitation, timing, water type year etc.). To show the accuracy of the model, a verification study is carried out comparing the model-generated outflow decisions ("artificial intelligent" decisions) with that made by reservoir operators (human decisions). The simulation results show that the machine-generated outflow decisions are very similar to the real reservoir operators' decisions. This conclusion is based on statistical evaluations using the Nash-Sutcliffe test. The proposed model is able to detect the most influential variables and their weights when the reservoir operators make an outflow decision. While the proposed approach was firstly applied and tested on California's 12 major reservoirs, the method is universally adaptable to other reservoir systems.

Optimal Decision-making Model of Integrated Water Resources Management - A Case of Hsinchu Water Resources Management

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2017-12-01

The public use water in Hsinchu are mainly supplied from Baoshan Reservoir, Second Baoshan Reservoir, Yongheshan Reservoir and Longen Weir. However, the increasing water demand, caused by development of the Hsinchu Science and Industrial Park, results in supply stable water getting more difficult. For stabilize water supply in Hsinchu, the study applies long-term and short-term plans to fulfill the water shortage. Developing an efficient methodology to define a cost-effective action portfolio is an important task. Hence, the study develops a novel decision model, the Stochastic Programming with Recourse Decision Model (SPRDM), to estimate a cost-effective action portfolio. The first-stage of SPRDM determine the long-term action portfolio and the portfolio accompany recourse information (the probability for water shortage event). The second-stage of SPRDM optimize the cost-effective action portfolio in response to the recourse information. In order to consider the uncertainty of reservoir sediment and demand growth, the study set 9 scenarios comprise optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic reservoir sediment and demand growth. The results show the optimal action portfolio consist of FengTain Lake and Panlon Weir, Hsinchu Desalination Plant, Domestic and Industrial Water long-term plans, and Emergency Backup Well, Irrigation Water Transference, Preliminary Water Rationing, Advanced Water Rationing and Water Transport from Other Districts short-term plans. The minimum expected cost of optimal action portfolio is NT$1.1002 billion. The results can be used as a reference for decision making because the results have considered the uncertainty of varied hydrology, reservoir sediment, and water demand growth.

75 FR 6257 - Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan, Loudon, Meigs, Rhea, and Roane Counties, TN

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-08

... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan, Loudon, Meigs, Rhea, and... Watts Bar Reservoir in Tennessee. On November 19, 2009, the TVA Board of Directors (TVA Board) decided... the final environmental impact statement (FEIS) for the Watts Bar Reservoir Land Management Plan...

Identification and assessment of potential water quality impact factors for drinking-water reservoirs.

Science.gov (United States)

Gu, Qing; Deng, Jinsong; Wang, Ke; Lin, Yi; Li, Jun; Gan, Muye; Ma, Ligang; Hong, Yang

2014-06-10

Various reservoirs have been serving as the most important drinking water sources in Zhejiang Province, China, due to the uneven distribution of precipitation and severe river pollution. Unfortunately, rapid urbanization and industrialization have been continuously challenging the water quality of the drinking-water reservoirs. The identification and assessment of potential impacts is indispensable in water resource management and protection. This study investigates the drinking water reservoirs in Zhejiang Province to better understand the potential impact on water quality. Altogether seventy-three typical drinking reservoirs in Zhejiang Province encompassing various water storage levels were selected and evaluated. Using fifty-two reservoirs as training samples, the classification and regression tree (CART) method and sixteen comprehensive variables, including six sub-sets (land use, population, socio-economy, geographical features, inherent characteristics, and climate), were adopted to establish a decision-making model for identifying and assessing their potential impacts on drinking-water quality. The water quality class of the remaining twenty-one reservoirs was then predicted and tested based on the decision-making model, resulting in a water quality class attribution accuracy of 81.0%. Based on the decision rules and quantitative importance of the independent variables, industrial emissions was identified as the most important factor influencing the water quality of reservoirs; land use and human habitation also had a substantial impact on water quality. The results of this study provide insights into the factors impacting the water quality of reservoirs as well as basic information for protecting reservoir water resources.

Value of information in closed-loop reservoir managment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Barros, E.G.D.; Van den Hof, P.M.J.; Jansen, J.D.

This paper proposes a new methodology to perform value of information (VOI) analysis within a closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM) framework. The workflow combines tools such as robust optimization and history matching in an environment of uncertainty characterization. The approach is illustrated

Effects of dredging and macrophyte management on the fish species composition in an old Neotropical reservoir

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

André Luiz Henríques Esguícero

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Aim: As part of the remodeling of an almost century-old dam, in the Rio Jacaré-Guaçu, the dredging and management of macrophytes were carried out in the Gavião Peixoto Reservoir (São Paulo State, Brazil. Data for the reservoir and a river stretch upstream the reservoir were compared, for evaluating the effects of the management procedures. Methods The fish fauna and physical and chemical factors were studied during five years, before (2005-2006 and after the recovery procedures (2007-2009, once a year, during the rainy season. Fishes were caught by gill nets, 10 m long and 1.5, 4, and 6 cm-mesh between adjacent knots. Results After the management procedures, the values of pH and dissolved oxygen increased in the reservoir, whereas conductivity decreased, bringing them closer to those of the upstream stretch. Species richness, diversity, and Catch per Unit Effort in number and biomass, increased in the reservoir after the management. Conclusions After the recovery procedures, the composition of the fish fauna in the reservoir was similar to that of the upstream stretch. The dredging and management of macrophytes in the reservoir benefited the fish fauna diversity, through improvement in water quality and space expansion.

Application of Integrated Reservoir Management and Reservoir Characterization to Optimize Infill Drilling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

P. K. Pande

1998-10-29

Initial drilling of wells on a uniform spacing, without regard to reservoir performance and characterization, must become a process of the past. Such efforts do not optimize reservoir development as they fail to account for the complex nature of reservoir heterogeneities present in many low permeability reservoirs, and carbonate reservoirs in particular. These reservoirs are typically characterized by: o Large, discontinuous pay intervals o Vertical and lateral changes in reservoir properties o Low reservoir energy o High residual oil saturation o Low recovery efficiency

Financial Risk Reduction and Management of Water Reservoirs Using Forecasts: A Case for Pernambuco, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, I.; Josset, L.; e Silva, E. C.; Possas, J. M. C.; Asfora, M. C.; Lall, U.

2017-12-01

The financial health and sustainability, ensuring adequate supply, and adapting to climate are fundamental challenges faced by water managers. These challenges are worsened in semi-arid regions with socio-economic pressures, seasonal supply of water, and projected increase in intensity and frequency of droughts. Over time, probabilistic rainfall forecasts are improving and for water managers, it could be key in addressing the above challenges. Using forecasts can also help make informed decisions about future infrastructure. The study proposes a model to minimize cost of water supply (including cost of deficit) given ensemble forecasts. The model can be applied to seasonal to annual ensemble forecasts, to determine the least cost solution. The objective of the model is to evaluate the resiliency and cost associated to supplying water. A case study is conducted in one of the largest reservoirs (Jucazinho) in Pernambuco state, Brazil, and four other reservoirs, which provide water to nineteen municipalities in the Jucazinho system. The state has been in drought since 2011, and the Jucazinho reservoir, has been empty since January 2017. The importance of climate adaptation along with risk management and financial sustainability are important to the state as it is extremely vulnerable to droughts, and has seasonal streamflow. The objectives of the case study are first, to check if streamflow forecasts help reduce future supply costs by comparing k-nearest neighbor ensemble forecasts with a fixed release policy. Second, to determine the value of future infrastructure, a new source of supply from Rio São Francisco, considered to mitigate drought conditions. The study concludes that using forecasts improve the supply and financial sustainability of water, by reducing cost of failure. It also concludes that additional infrastructure can help reduce the risks of failure significantly, but does not guarantee supply during prolonged droughts like the one experienced

Evaluating the Implications of Climate Phenomenon Indices in Supporting Reservoir Operation Using the Artificial Neural Network and Decision-Tree Methods: A Case Study on Trinity Lake in Northern California

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, T.; Akbari Asanjan, A.; Gao, X.; Sorooshian, S.

2016-12-01

Reservoirs are fundamental human-built infrastructures that collect, store, and deliver fresh surface water in a timely manner for all kinds of purposes, including residential and industrial water supply, flood control, hydropower, and irrigation, etc. Efficient reservoir operation requires that policy makers and operators understand how reservoir inflows, available storage, and discharges are changing under different climatic conditions. Over the last decade, the uses of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI & DM) techniques in assisting reservoir management and seasonal forecasts have been increasing. Therefore, in this study, two distinct AI & DM methods, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Random Forest (RF), are employed and compared with respect to their capabilities of predicting monthly reservoir inflow, managing storage, and scheduling reservoir releases. A case study on Trinity Lake in northern California is conducted using long-term (over 50 years) reservoir operation records and 17 known climate phenomenon indices, i.e. PDO and ENSO, etc., as predictors. Results show that (1) both ANN and RF are capable of providing reasonable monthly reservoir storage, inflow, and outflow prediction with satisfactory statistics, and (2) climate phenomenon indices are useful in assisting monthly or seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflow and outflow. It is also found that reservoir storage has a consistent high autocorrelation effect, while inflow and outflow are more likely to be influenced by climate conditions. Using a Gini diversity index, RF method identifies that the reservoir discharges are associated with Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and reservoir inflows are influenced by multiple climate phenomenon indices during different seasons. Furthermore, results also show that, during the winter season, reservoir discharges are controlled by the storage level for flood-control purposes, while, during the summer season, the flood-control operation is not as

Reservoir compartmentalization and management strategies: Lessons learned in the Illinois basin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grube, J.P.; Crockett, J.E.; Huff, B.G. [and others

1997-08-01

A research project jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy and the Illinois State Geological Survey focused on the Cypress and Aux Vases Formations (Mississippian), major clastic reservoirs in the Illinois Basin. Results from the research showed that understanding the nature and distribution of reservoir compartments, and using effective reservoir management strategies, can significantly improve recovery efficiencies from oil fields in this mature basin. Compartments can be most effectively drained where they are geologically well defined and reservoir management practices are coordinated through unified, compartment-wide, development programs. Our studies showed that the Cypress and Aux Vases reservoirs contain lateral and vertical permeability barriers forming compartments that range in size from isolated, interlaminated sandstone and shale beds to sandstone bodies tens of feet in thickness and more than a mile in length. Stacked or shingled, genetically similar sandstone bodies are commonly separated by thin impermeable intervals that can be difficult to distinguish on logs and can, therefore, cause correlation problems, even between wells drilled on spacing of less than ten acres. Lateral separation of sandstone bodies causes similar problems. Reservoir compartmentalization reduces primary and particularly secondary recovery by trapping pockets of by-passed or banked oil. Compartments can be detected by comparing recovery factors of genetically similar sandstone bodies within a field; using packers to separate commingled intervals and analyzing fluid recoveries and pressures; making detailed core-to-log calibrations that identify compartment boundaries; and analyzing pressure data from waterflood programs.

Putting Flow–Ecology Relationships into Practice: A Decision-Support System to Assess Fish Community Response to Water-Management Scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Cartwright

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

Putting flow-ecology relationships into practice: A decision-support system to assess fish community response to water-management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Cartwright, Jennifer M.; Caldwell, Casey; Nebiker, Steven; Knight, Rodney

2017-01-01

This paper presents a conceptual framework to operationalize flow–ecology relationships into decision-support systems of practical use to water-resource managers, who are commonly tasked with balancing multiple competing socioeconomic and environmental priorities. We illustrate this framework with a case study, whereby fish community responses to various water-management scenarios were predicted in a partially regulated river system at a local watershed scale. This case study simulates management scenarios based on interactive effects of dam operation protocols, withdrawals for municipal water supply, effluent discharges from wastewater treatment, and inter-basin water transfers. Modeled streamflow was integrated with flow–ecology relationships relating hydrologic departure from reference conditions to fish species richness, stratified by trophic, reproductive, and habitat characteristics. Adding a hypothetical new water-withdrawal site was predicted to increase the frequency of low-flow conditions with adverse effects for several fish groups. Imposition of new reservoir release requirements was predicted to enhance flow and fish species richness immediately downstream of the reservoir, but these effects were dissipated further downstream. The framework presented here can be used to translate flow–ecology relationships into evidence-based management by developing decision-support systems for conservation of riverine biodiversity while optimizing water availability for human use.

Optimal Reoperation of Multi-Reservoirs for Integrated Watershed Management with Multiple Benefits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinyi Xu

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Constructing reservoirs can make more efficient use of water resources for human society. However, the negative impacts of these projects on the environment are often ignored. Optimal reoperation of reservoirs, which considers not only in socio-economic values but also environmental benefits, is increasingly important. A model of optimal reoperation of multi-reservoirs for integrated watershed management with multiple benefits was proposed to alleviate the conflict between water use and environmental deterioration. The social, economic, water quality and ecological benefits were respectively taken into account as the scheduling objectives and quantified according to economic models. River minimum ecological flows and reservoir water levels based on flood control were taken as key constraint conditions. Feasible search discrete differential dynamic programming (FS-DDDP was used to run the model. The proposed model was used in the upstream of the Nanpan River, to quantitatively evaluate the difference between optimal reoperation and routine operation. The results indicated that the reoperation could significantly increase the water quality benefit and have a minor effect on the benefits of power generation and irrigation under different hydrological years. The model can be readily adapted to other multi-reservoir systems for water resources management.

Decision models in engineering and management

CERN Document Server

2015-01-01

Providing a comprehensive overview of various methods  and applications in decision engineering, this book presents chapters written by a range experts in the field. It presents conceptual aspects of decision support applications in various areas including finance, vendor selection, construction, process management, water management and energy, agribusiness , production scheduling and control, and waste management. In addition to this, a special focus is given to methods of multi-criteria decision analysis. Decision making in organizations is a recurrent theme and is essential for business continuity.  Managers from various fields including public, private, industrial, trading or service sectors are required to make decisions. Consequently managers need the support of these structured methods in order to engage in effective decision making. This book provides a valuable resource for graduate students, professors and researchers of decision analysis, multi-criteria decision analysis and group decision analys...

Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

Science.gov (United States)

Caspers, Svenja; Heim, Stefan; Lucas, Marc G; Stephan, Egon; Fischer, Lorenz; Amunts, Katrin; Zilles, Karl

2012-01-01

Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

Simulation of operating rules and discretional decisions using a fuzzy rule-based system integrated into a water resources management model

Science.gov (United States)

Macian-Sorribes, Hector; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2013-04-01

Water resources systems are operated, mostly, using a set of pre-defined rules not regarding, usually, to an optimal allocation in terms of water use or economic benefits, but to historical and institutional reasons. These operating policies are reproduced, commonly, as hedging rules, pack rules or zone-based operations, and simulation models can be used to test their performance under a wide range of hydrological and/or socio-economic hypothesis. Despite the high degree of acceptation and testing that these models have achieved, the actual operation of water resources systems hardly follows all the time the pre-defined rules with the consequent uncertainty on the system performance. Real-world reservoir operation is very complex, affected by input uncertainty (imprecision in forecast inflow, seepage and evaporation losses, etc.), filtered by the reservoir operator's experience and natural risk-aversion, while considering the different physical and legal/institutional constraints in order to meet the different demands and system requirements. The aim of this work is to expose a fuzzy logic approach to derive and assess the historical operation of a system. This framework uses a fuzzy rule-based system to reproduce pre-defined rules and also to match as close as possible the actual decisions made by managers. After built up, the fuzzy rule-based system can be integrated in a water resources management model, making possible to assess the system performance at the basin scale. The case study of the Mijares basin (eastern Spain) is used to illustrate the method. A reservoir operating curve regulates the two main reservoir releases (operated in a conjunctive way) with the purpose of guaranteeing a high realiability of supply to the traditional irrigation districts with higher priority (more senior demands that funded the reservoir construction). A fuzzy rule-based system has been created to reproduce the operating curve's performance, defining the system state (total

Handbook on Decision Making Vol 2 Risk Management in Decision Making

CERN Document Server

Lu, Jie; Zhang, Guangquan

2012-01-01

This book presents innovative theories, methodologies, and techniques in the field of risk management and decision making. It introduces new research developments and provides a comprehensive image of their potential applications to readers interested in the area. The collection includes: computational intelligence applications in decision making, multi-criteria decision making under risk, risk modelling,forecasting and evaluation, public security and community safety, risk management in supply chain and other business decision making, political risk management and disaster response systems. The book is directed to academic and applied researchers working on risk management, decision making, and management information systems.

Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Ruben; Gebretsadik, Henok Y.; Schütze, Niels

2016-05-01

Recently, the Kessem-Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i) recent conditions and (ii) future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i) rule curves with a high degree of freedom - this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii) smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

Large reservoirs: Chapter 17

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda, Leandro E.; Bettoli, Phillip William

2010-01-01

Large impoundments, defined as those with surface area of 200 ha or greater, are relatively new aquatic ecosystems in the global landscape. They represent important economic and environmental resources that provide benefits such as flood control, hydropower generation, navigation, water supply, commercial and recreational fisheries, and various other recreational and esthetic values. Construction of large impoundments was initially driven by economic needs, and ecological consequences received little consideration. However, in recent decades environmental issues have come to the forefront. In the closing decades of the 20th century societal values began to shift, especially in the developed world. Society is no longer willing to accept environmental damage as an inevitable consequence of human development, and it is now recognized that continued environmental degradation is unsustainable. Consequently, construction of large reservoirs has virtually stopped in North America. Nevertheless, in other parts of the world construction of large reservoirs continues. The emergence of systematic reservoir management in the early 20th century was guided by concepts developed for natural lakes (Miranda 1996). However, we now recognize that reservoirs are different and that reservoirs are not independent aquatic systems inasmuch as they are connected to upstream rivers and streams, the downstream river, other reservoirs in the basin, and the watershed. Reservoir systems exhibit longitudinal patterns both within and among reservoirs. Reservoirs are typically arranged sequentially as elements of an interacting network, filter water collected throughout their watersheds, and form a mosaic of predictable patterns. Traditional approaches to fisheries management such as stocking, regulating harvest, and in-lake habitat management do not always produce desired effects in reservoirs. As a result, managers may expend resources with little benefit to either fish or fishing. Some locally

Management Optimization of Saguling Reservoir with Bellman Dynamic Programming and “Du Couloir” Iterative Method

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Mariana Marselina

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The increasingly growth of population and industry sector have lead to an enhanced demand for electrical energy. One of the electricity providers in the area of Java-Madura Bali (Jamali is Saguling Reservoir. Saguling Reservoir is one of the three reservoirs that stem the flow of Citarum River in advance of to Jatiluhur and Cirata Reservoir. The average electricity production of Saguling Reservoir was 2,334,318.138 MWh/year in the period of 1986-2014. The water intake of Saguling Reservoir is the upstream Citarum Watershed with an area of 2340.88 km2 which also serves as the irrigation, inland fisheries, recreation, and other activities. An effort to improve the function of Saguling Reservoir in producing electrical energy is by optimizing the reservoir management. The optimization of Saguling Reservoir management in this study refers to Government Regulation No. 37/2010 on Dam/Reservoir Article 44 which states that the system of reservoir management consisting of the operation system in dry years, normal years, and wet years. In this research, the determination of the trajectory guideline in Saguling operation was divided in dry, normal and wet years. Trajectory guideline was conducted based on the electricity price of turbine inflow that various in every month. The determination of the trajectory guideline in various electricity price was done by using Program Dynamic Bellman (PD Bellman and “Du Couloir” iterative method which the objective to optimize the gain from electricity production. and “Du Couloir” iterative method was development of PD Bellman that can calculate the value of gain with a smaller discretization until 0,1 juta m3 effectively where PD Bellman just calculate until 10 million m3.  Smaller discretization can give maximum benefit from electricity production and the trajectory guideline will be closer to trajectory actual so optimization of Saguling operation will be achieved.

Dissociated neural processing for decisions in managers and non-managers.

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Svenja Caspers

Full Text Available Functional neuroimaging studies of decision-making so far mainly focused on decisions under uncertainty or negotiation with other persons. Dual process theory assumes that, in such situations, decision making relies on either a rapid intuitive, automated or a slower rational processing system. However, it still remains elusive how personality factors or professional requirements might modulate the decision process and the underlying neural mechanisms. Since decision making is a key task of managers, we hypothesized that managers, facing higher pressure for frequent and rapid decisions than non-managers, prefer the heuristic, automated decision strategy in contrast to non-managers. Such different strategies may, in turn, rely on different neural systems. We tested managers and non-managers in a functional magnetic resonance imaging study using a forced-choice paradigm on word-pairs. Managers showed subcortical activation in the head of the caudate nucleus, and reduced hemodynamic response within the cortex. In contrast, non-managers revealed the opposite pattern. With the head of the caudate nucleus being an initiating component for process automation, these results supported the initial hypothesis, hinting at automation during decisions in managers. More generally, the findings reveal how different professional requirements might modulate cognitive decision processing.

Multi-objective, multiple participant decision support for water management in the Andarax catchment, Almeria

Science.gov (United States)

van Cauwenbergh, N.; Pinte, D.; Tilmant, A.; Frances, I.; Pulido-Bosch, A.; Vanclooster, M.

2008-04-01

Water management in the Andarax river basin (Almeria, Spain) is a multi-objective, multi-participant, long-term decision-making problem that faces several challenges. Adequate water allocation needs informed decisions to meet increasing socio-economic demands while respecting the environmental integrity of this basin. Key players in the Andarax water sector include the municipality of Almeria, the irrigators involved in the intensive greenhouse agricultural sector, and booming second residences. A decision support system (DSS) is developed to rank different sustainable planning and management alternatives according to their socio-economic and environmental performance. The DSS is intimately linked to sustainability indicators and is designed through a public participation process. Indicators are linked to criteria reflecting stakeholders concerns in the 2005 field survey, such as fulfilling water demand, water price, technical and economical efficiency, social and environmental impacts. Indicators can be partly quantified after simulating the operation of the groundwater reservoir over a 20-year planning period and partly through a parallel expert evaluation process. To predict the impact of future water demand in the catchment, several development scenarios are designed to be evaluated in the DSS. The successive multi-criteria analysis of the performance indicators permits the ranking of the different management alternatives according to the multiple objectives formulated by the different sectors/participants. This allows more informed and transparent decision-making processes for the Andarax river basin, recognizing both the socio-economic and environmental dimensions of water resources management.

Towards an optimal integrated reservoir system management for the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

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R. Müller

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Recently, the Kessem–Tendaho project is completed to bring about socioeconomic development and growth in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. To support reservoir Koka, two new reservoirs where built together with extensive infrastructure for new irrigation projects. For best possible socioeconomic benefits under conflicting management goals, like energy production at three hydropower stations and basin wide water supply at various sites, an integrated reservoir system management is required. To satisfy the multi-purpose nature of the reservoir system, multi-objective parameterization-simulation-optimization model is applied. Different Pareto-optimal trade-off solutions between water supply and hydro-power generation are provided for two scenarios (i recent conditions and (ii future planned increases for Tendaho and Upper Awash Irrigation projects. Reservoir performance is further assessed under (i rule curves with a high degree of freedom – this allows for best performance, but may result in rules curves to variable for real word operation and (ii smooth rule curves, obtained by artificial neuronal networks. The results show no performance penalty for smooth rule curves under future conditions but a notable penalty under recent conditions.

Integrated 3D Reservoir/Fault Property Modelling Aided Well Planning and Improved Hydrocarbon Recovery in a Niger Delta Field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Onyeagoro, U. O.; Ebong, U. E.; Nworie, E. A.

2002-01-01

The large and varied portfolio of assets managed by oil companies requires quick decision-making and the deployment of best in class technologies in asset management. Timely decision making and the application of the best technologies in reservoir management are however sometimes in conflict due to large time requirements of the latter.Optimizing the location of development wells is critical to account for variable fluid contact movements and pressure interference effects between wells, which can be significant because of the high permeability (Darcy range) of Niger Delta reservoirs. With relatively high drilling costs, the optimization of well locations necessitates a good realistic static and dynamic 3D reservoir description, especially in the recovery of remaining oil and oil rim type of reservoirs.A detailed 3D reservoir model with fault properties was constructed for a Niger delta producing field. This involved the integration of high quality 3D seismic, core, petrophysics, reservoir engineering, production and structural geology data to construct a realistic 3D reservoir/fault property model for the field. The key parameters considered during the construction of the internal architecture of the model were the vertical and horizontal reservoir heterogeneities-this controls the fluid flow within the reservoir. In the production realm, the fault thickness and fault permeabilities are factors that control the impedance of fluid flow across the fault-fault transmissibility. These key internal and external reservoir/structural variables were explicitly modeled in a 3D modeling software to produce different realizations and manage the uncertainties.The resulting 3D reservoir/fault property model was upscaled for simulation purpose such that grid blocks along the fault planes have realistic transmissibility multipliers of 0 to 1 attached to them. The model was also used in the well planner to optimize the positioning of a high angle deviated well that penetrated

Decision Making Based On Management Information System and Decision Support System

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Şükrü Ada

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Information hasbecome an essentialresource for managing modern organizations. This is so because today’sbusiness environment is volatile, dynamic, turbulent and necessitates the burgeoning demand for accurate, relevant, complete,timely and economical information needed to drive the decision-making process in order to accentuate organizational abilities to manage opportunities and threat. MIS work on online mode with an average processing speed. Generally, it is used by low level management. Decision support system are powerful tool that assist corporate executives, administrators and other senior officials in making decision regarding the problem. Management Information Systems is a useful tool that provided organized and summarized information in a proper time to decision makers and enable making accurate decision for managers in organizations. This paper will discuss the concept, characteristics, types of MIS, the MIS model, and in particular it will highlight the impact and role of MIS on decision making.

Modelling of Reservoir Operations using Fuzzy Logic and ANNs

Science.gov (United States)

Van De Giesen, N.; Coerver, B.; Rutten, M.

2015-12-01

Today, almost 40.000 large reservoirs, containing approximately 6.000 km3 of water and inundating an area of almost 400.000 km2, can be found on earth. Since these reservoirs have a storage capacity of almost one-sixth of the global annual river discharge they have a large impact on the timing, volume and peaks of river discharges. Global Hydrological Models (GHM) are thus significantly influenced by these anthropogenic changes in river flows. We developed a parametrically parsimonious method to extract operational rules based on historical reservoir storage and inflow time-series. Managing a reservoir is an imprecise and vague undertaking. Operators always face uncertainties about inflows, evaporation, seepage losses and various water demands to be met. They often base their decisions on experience and on available information, like reservoir storage and the previous periods inflow. We modeled this decision-making process through a combination of fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks in an Adaptive-Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In a sensitivity analysis, we compared results for reservoirs in Vietnam, Central Asia and the USA. ANFIS can indeed capture reservoirs operations adequately when fed with a historical monthly time-series of inflows and storage. It was shown that using ANFIS, operational rules of existing reservoirs can be derived without much prior knowledge about the reservoirs. Their validity was tested by comparing actual and simulated releases with each other. For the eleven reservoirs modelled, the normalised outflow, , was predicted with a MSE of 0.002 to 0.044. The rules can be incorporated into GHMs. After a network for a specific reservoir has been trained, the inflow calculated by the hydrological model can be combined with the release and initial storage to calculate the storage for the next time-step using a mass balance. Subsequently, the release can be predicted one time-step ahead using the inflow and storage.

Management of complex multi-reservoir water distribution systems using advanced control theoretic tools and techniques

CERN Document Server

Chmielowski, Wojciech Z

2013-01-01

This study discusses issues of optimal water management in a complex distribution system. The main elements of the water-management system under consideration are retention reservoirs, among which water transfers are possible, and a network of connections between these reservoirs and water treatment plants (WTPs). System operation optimisation involves determining the proper water transport routes and their flow volumes from the retention reservoirs to the WTPs, and the volumes of possible transfers among the reservoirs, taking into account transport-related delays for inflows, outflows and water transfers in the system. Total system operation costs defined by an assumed quality coefficient should be minimal. An analytical solution of the optimisation task so formulated has been obtained as a result of using Pontriagin’s maximum principle with reference to the quality coefficient assumed. Stable start and end conditions in reservoir state trajectories have been assumed. The researchers have taken into accou...

29 CFR 99.405 - Management decision.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Management decision. 99.405 Section 99.405 Labor Office of... Agencies and Pass-through Entities § 99.405 Management decision. (a) General. The management decision shall... process available to the auditee. (b) Federal agency. As provided in § 99.400(a)(7), the cognizant agency...

Heuristics in Managing Complex Clinical Decision Tasks in Experts' Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Islam, Roosan; Weir, Charlene; Del Fiol, Guilherme

2014-09-01

Clinical decision support is a tool to help experts make optimal and efficient decisions. However, little is known about the high level of abstractions in the thinking process for the experts. The objective of the study is to understand how clinicians manage complexity while dealing with complex clinical decision tasks. After approval from the Institutional Review Board (IRB), three clinical experts were interviewed the transcripts from these interviews were analyzed. We found five broad categories of strategies by experts for managing complex clinical decision tasks: decision conflict, mental projection, decision trade-offs, managing uncertainty and generating rule of thumb. Complexity is created by decision conflicts, mental projection, limited options and treatment uncertainty. Experts cope with complexity in a variety of ways, including using efficient and fast decision strategies to simplify complex decision tasks, mentally simulating outcomes and focusing on only the most relevant information. Understanding complex decision making processes can help design allocation based on the complexity of task for clinical decision support design.

Real-time optimisation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Richaud, Bertrand; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

2011-01-01

-time optimisation. First, the simulation-optimisation framework is applied for optimising reservoir operating rules. Secondly, real-time and forecast information is used for on-line optimisation that focuses on short-term goals, such as flood control or hydropower generation, without compromising the deviation...... in the downstream part of the Red River, and at the same time to increase hydropower generation and to save water for the dry season. The real-time optimisation procedure further improves the efficiency of the reservoir operation and enhances the flexibility for the decision-making. Finally, the quality......Multi-purpose reservoirs often have to be managed according to conflicting objectives, which requires efficient tools for trading-off the objectives. This paper proposes a multi-objective simulation-optimisation approach that couples off-line rule curve optimisation with on-line real...

Multiple shooting applied to robust reservoir control optimization including output constraints on coherent risk measures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Codas, Andrés; Hanssen, Kristian G.; Foss, Bjarne

2017-01-01

The production life of oil reservoirs starts under significant uncertainty regarding the actual economical return of the recovery process due to the lack of oil field data. Consequently, investors and operators make management decisions based on a limited and uncertain description of the reservoir....... In this work, we propose a new formulation for robust optimization of reservoir well controls. It is inspired by the multiple shooting (MS) method which permits a broad range of parallelization opportunities and output constraint handling. This formulation exploits coherent risk measures, a concept...

Monitoring Reservoirs Using MERIS And LANDSAT Fused Images : A Case Study Of Polyfitos Reservoir - West Macedonia - Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Stefouli, M.; Charou, E.; Vasileiou, E.; Stathopoulos, N.; Perrakis, A.

2012-04-01

Research and monitoring is essential to assess baseline conditions in reservoirs and their watershed and provide necessary information to guide decision-makers. Erosion and degradation of mountainous areas can lead to gradual aggradation of reservoirs reducing their lifetime. Collected measurements and observations have to be communicated to the managers of the reservoirs so as to achieve a common / comprehensive management of a large watershed and reservoir system. At this point Remote Sensing could help as the remotely sensed data are repeatedly and readily available to the end users. Aliakmon is the longest river in Greece, it's length is about 297 km and the surface of the river basin is 9.210 km2.The flow of the river starts from Northwest of Greece and ends in Thermaikos Gulf. The riverbed is not natural throughout the entire route, because constructed dams restrict water and create artificial lakes, such as lake of Polyfitos, that prevent flooding. This lake is used as reservoir, for covering irrigational water needs and the water is used to produce energy from the hydroelectric plant of Public Power Corporation-PPC. The catchment basin of Polyfitos' reservoir covers an area of 847.76 km2. Soil erosion - degradation in the mountainous watershed of streams of Polyfitos reservoir is taking place. It has been estimated that an annual volume of sediments reaching the reservoir is of the order of 244 m3. Geomatic based techniques are used in processing multiple data of the study area. A data inventory was formulated after the acquisition of topographic maps, compilation of geological and hydro-geological maps, compilation of digital elevation model for the area of interest based on satellite data and available maps. It also includes the acquisition of various hydro-meteorological data when available. On the basis of available maps and satellite data, digital elevation models are used in order to delineate the basic sub-catchments of the Polyfytos basin as well as

Towards an Improved Represenation of Reservoirs and Water Management in a Land Surface-Hydrology Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yassin, F.; Anis, M. R.; Razavi, S.; Wheater, H. S.

2017-12-01

Water management through reservoirs, diversions, and irrigation have significantly changed river flow regimes and basin-wide energy and water balance cycles. Failure to represent these effects limits the performance of land surface-hydrology models not only for streamflow prediction but also for the estimation of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and feedbacks to the atmosphere. Despite recent research to improve the representation of water management in land surface models, there remains a need to develop improved modeling approaches that work in complex and highly regulated basins such as the 406,000 km2 Saskatchewan River Basin (SaskRB). A particular challenge for regional and global application is a lack of local information on reservoir operational management. To this end, we implemented a reservoir operation, water abstraction, and irrigation algorithm in the MESH land surface-hydrology model and tested it over the SaskRB. MESH is Environment Canada's Land Surface-hydrology modeling system that couples Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) with hydrological routing model. The implemented reservoir algorithm uses an inflow-outflow relationship that accounts for the physical characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., storage-area-elevation relationships) and includes simplified operational characteristics based on local information (e.g., monthly target volume and release under limited, normal, and flood storage zone). The irrigation algorithm uses the difference between actual and potential evapotranspiration to estimate irrigation water demand. This irrigation demand is supplied from the neighboring reservoirs/diversion in the river system. We calibrated the model enabled with the new reservoir and irrigation modules in a multi-objective optimization setting. Results showed that the reservoir and irrigation modules significantly improved the MESH model performance in generating streamflow and evapotranspiration across the SaskRB and that this our approach provides

Decision support for emergency management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersen, V.

1989-05-01

A short introduction will be given to the Nordic project ''NKA/INF: Information Technology for Accident and Emergency Management'', which is now in its final phase. To perform evaluation of the project, special scenarious have been developed, and experiments based on these will be fulfilled and compared with experiments without use of the decision support system. Furthermore, the succeeding European project, ''IT Support for Emergency Management - ISEM'', with the purpose of developing a decision support system for complex and distributed decision making in emergency management in full scale, will be described and the preliminary conceptual model for the system will be presented. (author)

75 FR 77691 - Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, in Cocke, Greene, Hamblen...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-13

... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, in... the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). TVA has prepared the Douglas and Nolichucky Tributary... Douglas and Nolichucky tributary reservoirs has been allocated into broad use categories or ``zones...

Decision Exploration Lab : A Visual Analytics Solution for Decision Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Broeksema, Bertjan; Baudel, Thomas; Telea, Alex; Crisafulli, Paolo

2013-01-01

We present a visual analytics solution designed to address prevalent issues in the area of Operational Decision Management (ODM). In ODM, which has its roots in Artificial Intelligence (Expert Systems) and Management Science, it is increasingly important to align business decisions with business

Automatic high frequency monitoring for improved lake and reservoir management

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Marcé, R.; George, G.; Buscarinu, P.; Deidda, M.; Dunalska, J.; de Eyto, E.; Flaim, G.; Grossart, H. P.; Istvánovics, V.; Lenhardt, M.; Moreno-Ostos, E.; Obrador, B.; Ostrovsky, I.; Pierson, D. C.; Potužák, Jan; Poikane, S.; Rinke, K.; Rodríguez-Mozaz, S.; Staehr, P. A.; Šumberová, Kateřina; Waajen, G.; Weyhenmeyer, G. A.; Weathers, K. C.; Zion, M.; Ibelings, B. W.; Jennings, E.

2016-01-01

Roč. 50, č. 20 (2016), s. 10780-10794 ISSN 0013-936X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LD14045 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : monitoring of water resources * water reservoir management * sensors Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 6.198, year: 2016

Delft-FEWS:A Decision Making Platform to Intergrate Data, Model, Algorithm for Large-Scale River Basin Water Management

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, T.; Welles, E.

2017-12-01

In this paper, we introduce a flood forecasting and decision making platform, named Delft-FEWS, which has been developed over years at the Delft Hydraulics and now at Deltares. The philosophy of Delft-FEWS is to provide water managers and operators with an open shell tool, which allows the integratation of a variety of hydrological, hydraulics, river routing, and reservoir models with hydrometerological forecasts data. Delft-FEWS serves as an powerful tool for both basin-scale and national-scale water resources management. The essential novelty of Delft-FEWS is to change the flood forecasting and water resources management from a single model or agency centric paradigm to a intergrated framework, in which different model, data, algorithm and stakeholders are strongly linked together. The paper will start with the challenges in water resources managment, and the concept and philosophy of Delft-FEWS. Then, the details of data handling and linkages of Delft-FEWS with different hydrological, hydraulic, and reservoir models, etc. Last, several cases studies and applications of Delft-FEWS will be demonstrated, including the National Weather Service and the Bonneville Power Administration in USA, and a national application in the water board in the Netherland.

Characteristics of a bottomland hardwood forest under greentree reservoir management in East Central Arkansas

Science.gov (United States)

Michael R. Guttery; Andrew W. Ezell

2006-01-01

Greentree reservoirs are a viable option for creating habitat and hunting opportunities for migrating waterfowl. Unfortunately, the prolonged annual flooding often associated with greentree reservoir management can be highly detrimental to many of the desirable tree species in these stands. In the summer of 2004, a total of 327 plot centers were established in a...

Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Quality of Subalpine Reservoirs: Implications on Management

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Marziali Laura

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Reservoirs are characterized by accumulation of sediments where micropollutants may concentrate, with potential toxic effects on downstream river ecosystems. However, sediment management such as flushing is needed to maintain storage capacity. Climate change is expected to increase sediment loads, but potential effects on their quality are scarcely known. In this context, sediment contamination by trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, and Zn and organics (Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PAHs, Polychlorinated Biphenyls PCBs and C > 12 hydrocarbons was analyzed in 20 reservoirs located in Italian Central Alps. A strong As and a moderate Cd, Hg and Pb enrichment was emphasized by Igeo, with potential ecotoxicological risk according to Probable Effect Concentration quotients. Sedimentation rate, granulometry, total organic carbon (TOC and altitude resulted as the main drivers governing pollutant concentrations in sediments. According to climate change models, expected increase of rainfall erosivity will enhance soil erosion and consequently the sediment flow to reservoirs, potentially increasing coarse grain fractions and thus potentially diluting pollutants. Conversely, increased weathering may enhance metal fluxes to reservoirs. Increased vegetation cover will potentially result in higher TOC concentrations, which may contrast contaminant bioavailability and thus toxicity. Our results may provide elements for a proper management of contaminated sediments in a climate change scenario aiming at preserving water quality and ecosystem functioning.

An alternative approach to assessing feasibility of flushing sediment from reservoirs

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Elfimov Valeriy Ivanovich

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Effective parameters on feasibility of sediment flushing through reservoirs include hydrological, hydraulic, and topographic properties of the reservoirs. In this study, the performances of the Decision tree forest (DTF and Group method of data handling (GMDH for assessing feasibility of flushing sediment from reservoirs, were investigated. In this way, Decision tree Forest, that combines multiple Decision tree, used to evaluate the relative importance of factors affecting flushing sediment. At the second step, GMDH deployed to predict the feasibility of flushing sediment from reservoirs. Results indicate that these models, as an efficient novel approach with an acceptable range of error, can be used successfully for assessing feasibility of flushing sediment from reservoirs.

Advancing reservoir operation description in physically based hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Anghileri, Daniela; Giudici, Federico; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Last decades have seen significant advances in our capacity of characterizing and reproducing hydrological processes within physically based models. Yet, when the human component is considered (e.g. reservoirs, water distribution systems), the associated decisions are generally modeled with very simplistic rules, which might underperform in reproducing the actual operators' behaviour on a daily or sub-daily basis. For example, reservoir operations are usually described by a target-level rule curve, which represents the level that the reservoir should track during normal operating conditions. The associated release decision is determined by the current state of the reservoir relative to the rule curve. This modeling approach can reasonably reproduce the seasonal water volume shift due to reservoir operation. Still, it cannot capture more complex decision making processes in response, e.g., to the fluctuations of energy prices and demands, the temporal unavailability of power plants or varying amount of snow accumulated in the basin. In this work, we link a physically explicit hydrological model with detailed hydropower behavioural models describing the decision making process by the dam operator. In particular, we consider two categories of behavioural models: explicit or rule-based behavioural models, where reservoir operating rules are empirically inferred from observational data, and implicit or optimization based behavioural models, where, following a normative economic approach, the decision maker is represented as a rational agent maximising a utility function. We compare these two alternate modelling approaches on the real-world water system of Lake Como catchment in the Italian Alps. The water system is characterized by the presence of 18 artificial hydropower reservoirs generating almost 13% of the Italian hydropower production. Results show to which extent the hydrological regime in the catchment is affected by different behavioural models and reservoir

Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, C. L.

2015-12-01

Investigation on Reservoir Operation of Agricultural Water Resources Management for Drought Mitigation Chung-Lien Cheng, Wen-Ping Tsai, Fi-John Chang* Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Da-An District, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC.Corresponding author: Fi-John Chang (changfj@ntu.edu.tw) AbstractIn Taiwan, the population growth and economic development has led to considerable and increasing demands for natural water resources in the last decades. Under such condition, water shortage problems have frequently occurred in northern Taiwan in recent years such that water is usually transferred from irrigation sectors to public sectors during drought periods. Facing the uneven spatial and temporal distribution of water resources and the problems of increasing water shortages, it is a primary and critical issue to simultaneously satisfy multiple water uses through adequate reservoir operations for sustainable water resources management. Therefore, we intend to build an intelligent reservoir operation system for the assessment of agricultural water resources management strategy in response to food security during drought periods. This study first uses the grey system to forecast the agricultural water demand during February and April for assessing future agricultural water demands. In the second part, we build an intelligent water resources system by using the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II), an optimization tool, for searching the water allocation series based on different water demand scenarios created from the first part to optimize the water supply operation for different water sectors. The results can be a reference guide for adequate agricultural water resources management during drought periods. Keywords: Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II); Grey System; Optimization; Agricultural Water Resources Management.

Influence of portofolio management in decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rolney Baptestone

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This research aims to demonstrate how portfolio management influences the decision-making process in the projects of a financial organization. And to achieve this goal was used the single case study method. In order to reach this goal, the study began by means of bibliometric research on the subject of portfolio management and subsequent bibliographic research on the theme, decision making. Next, the relationships between portfolio management and decision making were studied. The results of the data collected confirmed the relationship between "the use of the project identification process in portfolio management to influence decision making" in order to add value to the business. It is also possible to demonstrate moderately that "the use of criteria for project selection influences the consequences of decision making", helping in the strategic management of the organization. One of the academic contributions was to note a migration of the portfolio management process, such as a tool that only controls the projects that will compose the portfolio of an organization, for a process that aims at a direct alignment with the strategic management of the organization. Regarding the practical implications, it was verified the importance of portfolio analysis for decision making, to the detriment of the evaluation of only one project. Taking into account the profitability and the return on investment of the projects, as the most important aspects for a decision making.

A New Method for Fracturing Wells Reservoir Evaluation in Fractured Gas Reservoir

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianchun Guo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Natural fracture is a geological phenomenon widely distributed in tight formation, and fractured gas reservoir stimulation effect mainly depends on the communication of natural fractures. Therefore it is necessary to carry out the evaluation of this reservoir and to find out the optimal natural fractures development wells. By analyzing the interactions and nonlinear relationships of the parameters, it establishes three-level index system of reservoir evaluation and proposes a new method for gas well reservoir evaluation model in fractured gas reservoir on the basis of fuzzy logic theory and multilevel gray correlation. For this method, the Gaussian membership functions to quantify the degree of every factor in the decision-making system and the multilevel gray relation to determine the weight of each parameter on stimulation effect. Finally through fuzzy arithmetic operator between multilevel weights and fuzzy evaluation matrix, score, rank, the reservoir quality, and predicted production will be gotten. Result of this new method shows that the evaluation of the production coincidence rate reaches 80%, which provides a new way for fractured gas reservoir evaluation.

Valuing hydrological alteration in Multi-Objective reservoir management

Science.gov (United States)

Bizzi, S.; Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

2012-04-01

Water management through dams and reservoirs is worldwide necessary to support key human-related activities ranging from hydropower production to water allocation for agricultural production, and flood risk mitigation. Advances in multi-objectives (MO) optimization techniques and ever growing computing power make it possible to design reservoir operating policies that represent Pareto-optimal tradeoffs between the multiple interests analysed. These progresses if on one hand are likely to enhance performances of commonly targeted objectives (such as hydropower production or water supply), on the other risk to strongly penalize all the interests not directly (i.e. mathematically) optimized within the MO algorithm. Alteration of hydrological regime, although is a well established cause of ecological degradation and its evaluation and rehabilitation are commonly required by recent legislation (as the Water Framework Directive in Europe), is rarely embedded as an objective in MO planning of optimal releases from reservoirs. Moreover, even when it is explicitly considered, the criteria adopted for its evaluation are doubted and not commonly trusted, undermining the possibility of real implementation of environmentally friendly policies. The main challenges in defining and assessing hydrological alterations are: how to define a reference state (referencing); how to define criteria upon which to build mathematical indicators of alteration (measuring); and finally how to aggregate the indicators in a single evaluation index that can be embedded in a MO optimization problem (valuing). This paper aims to address these issues by: i) discussing benefits and constrains of different approaches to referencing, measuring and valuing hydrological alteration; ii) testing two alternative indices of hydrological alteration in the context of MO problems, one based on the established framework of Indices of Hydrological Alteration (IHA, Richter et al., 1996), and a novel satisfying the

Screening reservoir systems by considering the efficient trade-offs—informing infrastructure investment decisions on the Blue Nile

Science.gov (United States)

Geressu, Robel T.; Harou, Julien J.

2015-12-01

Multi-reservoir system planners should consider how new dams impact downstream reservoirs and the potential contribution of each component to coordinated management. We propose an optimized multi-criteria screening approach to identify best performing designs, i.e., the selection, size and operating rules of new reservoirs within multi-reservoir systems. Reservoir release operating rules and storage sizes are optimized concurrently for each separate infrastructure design under consideration. Outputs reveal system trade-offs using multi-dimensional scatter plots where each point represents an approximately Pareto-optimal design. The method is applied to proposed Blue Nile River reservoirs in Ethiopia, where trade-offs between total and firm energy output, aggregate storage and downstream irrigation and energy provision for the best performing designs are evaluated. This proof-of concept study shows that recommended Blue Nile system designs would depend on whether monthly firm energy or annual energy is prioritized. 39 TWh/yr of energy potential is available from the proposed Blue Nile reservoirs. The results show that depending on the amount of energy deemed sufficient, the current maximum capacities of the planned reservoirs could be larger than they need to be. The method can also be used to inform which of the proposed reservoir type and their storage sizes would allow for the highest downstream benefits to Sudan in different objectives of upstream operating objectives (i.e., operated to maximize either average annual energy or firm energy). The proposed approach identifies the most promising system designs, reveals how they imply different trade-offs between metrics of system performance, and helps system planners asses the sensitivity of overall performance to the design parameters of component reservoirs.

Child-parent shared decision making about asthma management.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnett, Victoria; Smith, Joanna; Ormandy, Paula

2016-05-09

Aim To explore and describe child-parent shared decision making for the management of childhood asthma. Methods A qualitative, descriptive, interview-based study was undertaken. Eight children and nine parents participated. The framework approach underpinned data analysis. Findings A dynamic model of the way children and parents transfer, shift and share asthma management decisions was uncovered. Asthma management decisions between children and parents were non-linear, with responsibility transferring from parent to child under different conditions. Children made a range of decisions about their asthma, often sharing decisions with their parents. However, during acute illness episodes, children often relied on parents to make decisions about their asthma. Conclusion Neither the child nor parent has complete autonomy over asthma management decisions. Decision making is a dynamic, shifting and shared process, dependent on contextual factors and child and parent decision preferences.

Assessment of water management tools for the geothermal reservoir Waiwera (New Zealand)

Science.gov (United States)

Kühn, Michael; Altmannsberger, Charlotte

2016-04-01

Water management tools are essential to ensure the conservation of natural resources. The geothermal hot water reservoir below the village of Waiwera, on the Northern Island of New Zealand is used commercially since 1863. The continuous production of 50 °C hot geothermal water, to supply hotels and spas, has a negative impact on the reservoir. Until the year 1969 from all wells drilled the warm water flow was artesian. Due to overproduction the water needs to be pumped up nowadays. Further, within the years 1975 to 1976 the warm water seeps on the beach of Waiwera ran dry. In order to protect the reservoir and the historical and tourist site in the early 1980s a Water Management Plan was deployed. The "Auckland Regional Water Board" today "Auckland Regional Council" established guidelines to enable a sustainable management [1]. The management plan demands that the water level in the official and appropriate observation well of the council is 0.5 m above sea level throughout the year in average. Almost four decades of data (since 1978 until today) are now available [2]. The minimum water level was observed beginning of the 1980s with -1.25 m and the maximum recently with 1.6 m. The higher the production rates from the field, the lower the water level in the observation well. Highest abstraction rates reached almost 1,500 m3/day and lowest were just above 500 m3/day. Several models of varying complexity where used from purely data driven statistical to fully coupled process simulation models. In all cases the available data were used for calibration and the models were then applied for predictive purposes. We used the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index to quantify their predictive ability. The recommendation for the full implementation of the water management plan is the regular revision of an existing multivariate regression model which is based on the Theis well equation. Further, we suggest improving the underlying geological model of the process simulations to

Decision aids for multiple-decision disease management as affected by weather input errors.

Science.gov (United States)

Pfender, W F; Gent, D H; Mahaffee, W F; Coop, L B; Fox, A D

2011-06-01

Many disease management decision support systems (DSSs) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation, or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and management decision recommendations. The extent to which errors in weather inputs affect the quality of the final management outcome depends on a number of aspects of the disease management context, including whether management consists of a single dichotomous decision, or of a multi-decision process extending over the cropping season(s). Decision aids for multi-decision disease management typically are based on simple or complex algorithms of weather data which may be accumulated over several days or weeks. It is difficult to quantify accuracy of multi-decision DSSs due to temporally overlapping disease events, existence of more than one solution to optimizing the outcome, opportunities to take later recourse to modify earlier decisions, and the ongoing, complex decision process in which the DSS is only one component. One approach to assessing importance of weather input errors is to conduct an error analysis in which the DSS outcome from high-quality weather data is compared with that from weather data with various levels of bias and/or variance from the original data. We illustrate this analytical approach for two types of DSS, an infection risk index for hop powdery mildew and a simulation model for grass stem rust. Further exploration of analysis methods is needed to address problems associated with assessing uncertainty in multi-decision DSSs.

Decision support for utility environmental risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Balson, W.E.; Wilson, D.S.

1991-01-01

This paper reviews a number of decision support methods developed and applied by Decision Focus Incorporated to help utility personnel manage current environmental problems. This work has been performed for the Environmental Risk Analysis Program of EPRI's Environment Division, and also for a number of electric utilities across the country. These are two distinct types of decision support software tools that have been created: economic risk management and environmental risk analysis. These types differ primarily in the identification of who will make a decision. Economic risk management tools are directed primarily at decisions made by electric utilities. Environmental risk analysis tools are directed primarily at decisions made by legislative or regulatory agencies, about which a utility may wish to comment

Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

Science.gov (United States)

Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

2004-01-01

Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into

Seven business models for decision management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

dr. Martijn Zoet; Eline de Haan; Koen Smit

2016-01-01

Research, advisory companies, consultants and system integrators all predict that a lot of money will be earned with decision management (business rules, algorithms and analytics). But how can you actually make money with decision management or in other words: Which business models are exactly

Massachusetts reservoir simulation tool—User’s manual

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Sara B.

2016-10-06

IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey developed the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool to examine the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflows in Massachusetts by simulating the daily water balance of reservoirs. The simulation tool was developed to assist environmental managers to better manage water withdrawals in reservoirs and to preserve downstream aquatic habitats.

New Management Tools – From Video Management Systems to Business Decision Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emilian Cristian IRIMESCU

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In the last decades management was characterized by the increased use of Business Decision Systems, also called Decision Support Systems. More than that, systems that were until now used in a traditional way, for some simple activities (like security, migrated to the decision area of management. Some examples are the Video Management Systems from the physical security activity. This article will underline the way Video Management Systems passed to Business Decision Systems, which are the advantages of use thereof and which are the trends in this industry. The article will also analyze if at this moment Video Management Systems are real Business Decision Systems or if there are some functions missing to rank them at this level.

Effects of water-supply reservoirs on streamflow in Massachusetts

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Sara B.

2016-10-06

State and local water-resource managers need modeling tools to help them manage and protect water-supply resources for both human consumption and ecological needs. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection, has developed a decision-support tool to estimate the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflow. The Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool is a model that simulates the daily water balance of a reservoir. The reservoir simulation tool provides estimates of daily outflows from reservoirs and compares the frequency, duration, and magnitude of the volume of outflows from reservoirs with estimates of the unaltered streamflow that would occur if no dam were present. This tool will help environmental managers understand the complex interactions and tradeoffs between water withdrawals, reservoir operational practices, and reservoir outflows needed for aquatic habitats.A sensitivity analysis of the daily water balance equation was performed to identify physical and operational features of reservoirs that could have the greatest effect on reservoir outflows. For the purpose of this report, uncontrolled releases of water (spills or spillage) over the reservoir spillway were considered to be a proxy for reservoir outflows directly below the dam. The ratio of average withdrawals to the average inflows had the largest effect on spillage patterns, with the highest withdrawals leading to the lowest spillage. The size of the surface area relative to the drainage area of the reservoir also had an effect on spillage; reservoirs with large surface areas have high evaporation rates during the summer, which can contribute to frequent and long periods without spillage, even in the absence of water withdrawals. Other reservoir characteristics, such as variability of inflows, groundwater interactions, and seasonal demand patterns, had low to moderate effects on the frequency, duration, and magnitude of spillage. The

Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

2017-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

In the Way of Peacemaker Guide Curve between Water Supply and Flood Control for Short Term Reservoir Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Uysal, G.; Sensoy, A.; Yavuz, O.; Sorman, A. A.; Gezgin, T.

2012-04-01

Effective management of a controlled reservoir system where it involves multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives is a complex problem especially in real time operations. Yuvacık Dam Reservoir, located in the Marmara region of Turkey, is built to supply annual demand of 142 hm3 water for Kocaeli city requires such a complex management strategy since it has relatively small (51 hm3) effective capacity. On the other hand, the drainage basin is fed by both rainfall and snowmelt since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. Excessive water must be stored behind the radial gates between February and May in terms of sustainability especially for summer and autumn periods. Moreover, the downstream channel physical conditions constraint the spillway releases up to 100 m3/s although the spillway is large enough to handle major floods. Thus, this situation makes short term release decisions the challenging task. Long term water supply curves, based on historical inflows and annual water demand, are in conflict with flood regulation (control) levels, based on flood attenuation and routing curves, for this reservoir. A guide curve, that is generated using both water supply and flood control of downstream channel, generally corresponds to upper elevation of conservation pool for simulation of a reservoir. However, sometimes current operation necessitates exceeding this target elevation. Since guide curves can be developed as a function of external variables, the water potential of a basin can be an indicator to explain current conditions and decide on the further strategies. Besides, releases with respect to guide curve are managed and restricted by user-defined rules. Although the managers operate the reservoir due to several variable conditions and predictions, still the simulation model using variable guide curve is an urgent need to test alternatives quickly. To that end, using HEC-ResSim, the several variable guide curves are defined to meet the requirements by

Decision Support Systems in Forest Management: An Integrated ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Decision making process - especially in natural resources management, encounters myriad of challenges to objective decisions, significant decision depends on amount of information and capability of decision makers to handle massive data. In forest management, these challenges such as lack of enough data and cost ...

Structured decision making for managing pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep

Science.gov (United States)

Sells, Sarah N.; Mitchell, Michael S.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.

2016-01-01

Good decision-making is essential to conserving wildlife populations. Although there may be multiple ways to address a problem, perfect solutions rarely exist. Managers are therefore tasked with identifying decisions that will best achieve desired outcomes. Structured decision making (SDM) is a method of decision analysis used to identify the most effective, efficient, and realistic decisions while accounting for values and priorities of the decision maker. The stepwise process includes identifying the management problem, defining objectives for solving the problem, developing alternative approaches to achieve the objectives, and formally evaluating which alternative is most likely to accomplish the objectives. The SDM process can be more effective than informal decision-making because it provides a transparent way to quantitatively evaluate decisions for addressing multiple management objectives while incorporating science, uncertainty, and risk tolerance. To illustrate the application of this process to a management need, we present an SDM-based decision tool developed to identify optimal decisions for proactively managing risk of pneumonia epizootics in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) in Montana. Pneumonia epizootics are a major challenge for managers due to long-term impacts to herds, epistemic uncertainty in timing and location of future epizootics, and consequent difficulty knowing how or when to manage risk. The decision tool facilitates analysis of alternative decisions for how to manage herds based on predictions from a risk model, herd-specific objectives, and predicted costs and benefits of each alternative. Decision analyses for 2 example herds revealed that meeting management objectives necessitates specific approaches unique to each herd. The analyses showed how and under what circumstances the alternatives are optimal compared to other approaches and current management. Managers can be confident that these decisions are effective, efficient, and

Local Water Management of Small Reservoirs: Lessons from Two Case Studies in Burkina Faso

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hilmy Sally

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Burkina Faso is actively pursuing the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM in its development plans. Several policy and institutional mechanisms have been put in place, including the adoption of a national IWRM action plan (PAGIRE and the establishment so far of 30 local water management committees (Comités Locaux de l’Eau, or CLE. The stated purpose of the CLE is to take responsibility for managing water at sub-basin level. The two case studies discussed in this paper illustrate gaps between the policy objective of promoting IWRM on the one hand, and the realities associated with its practical on-the-ground implementation on the other. A significant adjustment that occurred in practice is the fact that the two CLE studied have been set up as entities focused on reservoir management, whereas it is envisioned that a CLE would constitute a platform for sub-basin management. This reflects a concern to minimise conflict and optimally manage the country’s primary water resource and illustrates the type of pragmatic actions that have to be taken to make IWRM a reality. It is also observed that the local water management committees have not been able to satisfactorily address questions regarding access to, and allocation of, water, which are crucial for the satisfactory functioning of the reservoirs. Water resources in the reservoirs appear to be controlled by the dominant user. In order to correct this trend, measures to build mutual trust and confidence among water users 'condemned' to work together to manage their common resource are suggested, foremost of which is the need to collect and share reliable data. Awareness of power relationships among water user groups and building on functioning, already existing formal or informal arrangements for water sharing are key determinants for successful implementation of the water reform process underway.

Application of the Ommaya Reservoir in Managing Ventricular Hemorrhage.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xi-Tao; Feng, Dong-Fu; Zhao, Liang; Sun, Zhao-Liang; Zhao, Gang

2016-05-01

Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. This study evaluated the safety and efficacy of the combined treatment of an Ommaya reservoir and conventional external ventricular drainage (EVD) using urokinase in the management of IVH. We performed a prospective controlled study. Sixty eligible patients with IVH received conventional EVD alone (group A) or combined EVD and Ommaya reservoir (group B) between January 2010 and January 2015. Clinical, cerebrospinal fluid, and radiographic data were used to assess clot clearance, clinical outcomes, and complications between the groups. There were no significant differences in gender, age, blood pressure, Glasgow Coma Scale, Graeb score, intracerebral hemorrhage volume on admission, and IVH volume before surgery between groups A and B (P > 0.05). The number of injections of urokinase (20,000 IU/dose) were significantly different in group B compared with group A (P 0.05). The hydrocephalus incidence and mortality revealed significant differences between the 2 groups (P safe and effective in patients with IVH. It increased clot clearance, shortened conventional catheter-based EVD duration, prolonged total drainage time, reduced the hydrocephalus incidence and mortality, and contributed to good clinical outcomes. The Ommaya reservoir provides a safe way to increase the injection times of urokinase, which accelerated clot resolution and did not increase the risk for ventriculitis infection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Supporting management decisions with ex ante accounting information

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wouters, Marc; Verdaasdonk, Peter

2002-01-01

This paper is about the relationship between management decisions and accounting information. Management decisions have consequences in different functional areas, departments, and different companies along the value chain. Accounting information regarding decisions aims to translate as many as

Game theory and fuzzy programming approaches for bi-objective optimization of reservoir watershed management: a case study in Namazgah reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Üçler, N; Engin, G Onkal; Köçken, H G; Öncel, M S

2015-05-01

In this study, game theory and fuzzy programming approaches were used to balance economic and environmental impacts in the Namazgah reservoir, Turkey. The main goals identified were to maximize economic benefits of land use and to protect water quality of reservoir and land resources. Total phosphorous load (kg ha(-1) year(-1)) and economic income (USD ha(-1) year(-1)) from land use were determined as environmental value and economic value, respectively. The surface area of existing land use types, which are grouped under 10 headings according to the investigations on the watershed area, and the constraint values for the watershed were calculated using aerial photos, master plans, and basin slope map. The results of fuzzy programming approach were found to be very close to the results of the game theory model. It was concluded that the amount of fertilizer used in the current situation presents a danger to the reservoir and, therefore, unnecessary fertilizer use should be prevented. Additionally, nuts, fruit, and vegetable cultivation, instead of wheat and corn cultivation, was found to be more suitable due to their high economic income and low total phosphorus (TP) load. Apart from agricultural activities, livestock farming should also be considered in the area as a second source of income. It is believed that the results obtained in this study will help decision makers to identify possible problems of the watershed.

Nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.

Science.gov (United States)

Shirey, Maria R; Ebright, Patricia R; McDaniel, Anna M

2013-01-01

  The present study provides insight into nurse manager cognitive decision-making amidst stress and work complexity.   Little is known about nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. Because nurse manager decisions have the potential to impact patient care quality and safety, understanding their decision-making processes is useful for designing supportive interventions.   This qualitative descriptive study interviewed 21 nurse managers from three hospitals to answer the research question: What decision-making processes do nurse managers utilize to address stressful situations in their nurse manager role? Face-to-face interviews incorporating components of the Critical Decision Method illuminated expert-novice practice differences. Content analysis identified one major theme and three sub-themes.   The present study produced a cognitive model that guides nurse manager decision-making related to stressful situations. Experience in the role, organizational context and situation factors influenced nurse manager cognitive decision-making processes.   Study findings suggest that chronic exposure to stress and work complexity negatively affects nurse manager health and their decision-making processes potentially threatening individual, patient and organizational outcomes.   Cognitive decision-making varies based on nurse manager experience and these differences have coaching and mentoring implications. This present study contributes a current understanding of nurse manager decision-making amidst stress and work complexity. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

AI techniques for optimizing multi-objective reservoir operation upon human and riverine ecosystem demands

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Wen-Ping; Chang, Fi-John; Chang, Li-Chiu; Herricks, Edwin E.

2015-11-01

Flow regime is the key driver of the riverine ecology. This study proposes a novel hybrid methodology based on artificial intelligence (AI) techniques for quantifying riverine ecosystems requirements and delivering suitable flow regimes that sustain river and floodplain ecology through optimizing reservoir operation. This approach addresses issues to better fit riverine ecosystem requirements with existing human demands. We first explored and characterized the relationship between flow regimes and fish communities through a hybrid artificial neural network (ANN). Then the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) was established for river flow management over the Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. The ecosystem requirement took the form of maximizing fish diversity, which could be estimated by the hybrid ANN. The human requirement was to provide a higher satisfaction degree of water supply. The results demonstrated that the proposed methodology could offer a number of diversified alternative strategies for reservoir operation and improve reservoir operational strategies producing downstream flows that could meet both human and ecosystem needs. Applications that make this methodology attractive to water resources managers benefit from the wide spread of Pareto-front (optimal) solutions allowing decision makers to easily determine the best compromise through the trade-off between reservoir operational strategies for human and ecosystem needs.

4. International reservoir characterization technical conference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1997-04-01

This volume contains the Proceedings of the Fourth International Reservoir Characterization Technical Conference held March 2-4, 1997 in Houston, Texas. The theme for the conference was Advances in Reservoir Characterization for Effective Reservoir Management. On March 2, 1997, the DOE Class Workshop kicked off with tutorials by Dr. Steve Begg (BP Exploration) and Dr. Ganesh Thakur (Chevron). Tutorial presentations are not included in these Proceedings but may be available from the authors. The conference consisted of the following topics: data acquisition; reservoir modeling; scaling reservoir properties; and managing uncertainty. Selected papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology database.

75 FR 40034 - Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-13

... TENNESSEE VALLEY AUTHORITY Northeastern Tributary Reservoirs Land Management Plan, Beaver Creek...-managed public land on Beaver Creek, Clear Creek, Boone, Fort Patrick Henry, South Holston, Watauga, and... Proposed Land Use Alternative) identified in the final environmental impact statement (FEIS). Under the...

Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

Science.gov (United States)

Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

2017-12-01

The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for

Risk management in facility transition and management decision making: Needs and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stillwell, W.; Seaver, D.; Keller, J.; Smith, D.; Weaver, D.; Sanders, T.; Thullen, P.

1993-02-01

An overall approach to risk management is described in this paper. Many of these concepts have been developed and applied as part of Hanford Mission Planning (HMP) (Hanford Mission Plan, 1992). At Hanford, HMP provides a mechanism for integrating planning across all the missions and programs of the site. This paper discusses the decision context within which EM must make and defend decisions, the types of decisions that are being and will need to be made in order to progress with the cleanup of the DOE complex, and the resulting need for risk management. Risk management, in turn, requires quality health and ecological risk information to make these decisions. Other types of information are also needed, but the risk information is typically the most important and the most difficult to obtain. The paper then describes a general technical approach to risk management, including particular methods for developing the high quality of human health and ecological risk information that will be needed to support risk management. We next turn to several special issues that make risk management more complex than many other decisions. We discuss these issues and offer some practical suggestions with respect to addressing them in the risk management framework. Finally, we conclude with some discussion of other opportunities for applying risk management

Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2007

Science.gov (United States)

Heilweil, Victor M.; Ortiz, Gema; Susong, David D.

2009-01-01

Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as an aquifer storage and recovery project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District (WCWCD). Since its inception in 2002 through 2007, surface-water diversions of about 126,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have resulted in a generally rising reservoir stage and surface area. Large volumes of runoff during spring 2005-06 allowed the WCWCD to fill the reservoir to a total storage capacity of more than 50,000 acre-feet, with a corresponding surface area of about 1,300 acres and reservoir stage of about 3,060 feet during 2006. During 2007, reservoir stage generally decreased to about 3,040 feet with a surface-water storage volume of about 30,000 acre-feet. Water temperature in the reservoir shows large seasonal variation and has ranged from about 3 to 30 deg C from 2003 through 2007. Except for anomalously high recharge rates during the first year when the vadose zone beneath the reservoir was becoming saturated, estimated ground-water recharge rates have ranged from 0.01 to 0.09 feet per day. Estimated recharge volumes have ranged from about 200 to 3,500 acre-feet per month from March 2002 through December 2007. Total ground-water recharge during the same period is estimated to have been about 69,000 acre-feet. Estimated evaporation rates have varied from 0.04 to 0.97 feet per month, resulting in evaporation losses of 20 to 1,200 acre-feet per month. Total evaporation from March 2002 through December 2007 is estimated to have been about 25,000 acre-feet. Results of water-quality sampling at monitoring wells indicate that by 2007, managed aquifer recharge had arrived at sites 37 and 36, located 60 and 160 feet from the reservoir, respectively. However, different peak arrival dates for specific conductance, chloride, chloride/bromide ratios, dissolved oxygen, and total dissolved-gas pressures at each monitoring well indicate the complicated nature of

Informed Decision Making Process for Managing Environmental Flows in Small River Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Padikkal, S.; Rema, K. P.

2013-03-01

Numerous examples exist worldwide of partial or complete alteration to the natural flow regime of river systems as a consequence of large scale water abstraction from upstream reaches. The effects may not be conspicuous in the case of very large rivers, but the ecosystems of smaller rivers or streams may be completely destroyed over a period of time. While restoration of the natural flow regime may not be possible, at present there is increased effort to implement restoration by regulating environmental flow. This study investigates the development of an environmental flow management model at an icon site in the small river basin of Bharathapuzha, west India. To determine optimal environmental flow regimes, a historic flow model based on data assimilated since 1978 indicated a satisfactory minimum flow depth for river ecosystem sustenance is 0.907 m (28.8 m3/s), a value also obtained from the hydraulic model; however, as three of the reservoirs were already operational at this time a flow depth of 0.922 m is considered a more viable estimate. Analysis of daily stream flow in 1997-2006, indicated adequate flow regimes during the monsoons in June-November, but that sections of the river dried out in December-May with alarming water quality conditions near the river mouth. Furthermore, the preferred minimum `dream' flow regime expressed by stakeholders of the region is a water depth of 1.548 m, which exceeds 50 % of the flood discharge in July. Water could potentially be conserved for environmental flow purposes by (1) the de-siltation of existing reservoirs or (2) reducing water spillage in the transfer between river basins. Ultimately environmental flow management of the region requires the establishment of a co-ordinated management body and the regular assimilation of water flow information from which science based decisions are made, to ensure both economic and environmental concerns are adequately addressed.

Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Molino, Bruno; De Vincenzo, Annamaria; Ferone, Claudio; Messina, Francesco; Colangelo, Francesco; Cioffi, Raffaele

2014-07-31

Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. ) represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

Recycling of Clay Sediments for Geopolymer Binder Production. A New Perspective for Reservoir Management in the Framework of Italian Legislation: The Occhito Reservoir Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruno Molino

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Reservoir silting is an unavoidable issue. It is estimated that in Italy, the potential rate of silting-up in large reservoirs ranges from 0.1% to 1% in the presence of wooded river basins and intensive agricultural land use, respectively. In medium and small-sized reservoirs, these values vary between 0.3% and 2%. Considering both the types of reservoirs, the annual average loss of storage capacity would be of about 1.59%. In this paper, a management strategy aimed at sediment productive reuse is presented. Particularly, the main engineering outcomes of an extensive experimental program on geopolymer binder synthesis is reported. The case study deals with Occhito reservoir, located in Southern Italy. Clay sediments coming from this silted-up artificial lake were characterized, calcined and activated, by means of a wide set of alkaline activating solutions. The results showed the feasibility of this recovery process, optimizing a few chemical parameters. The possible reuse in building material production (binders, precast concrete, bricks, etc. represents a relevant sustainable alternative to landfill and other more consolidated practices.

Interdisciplinary study of reservoir compartments and heterogeneity. Final report, October 1, 1993--December 31, 1996

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Kirk, C.

1998-01-01

A case study approach using Terry Sandstone production from the Hambert-Aristocrat Field, Weld County, Colorado was used to document the process of integration. One specific project goal is to demonstrate how a multidisciplinary approach can be used to detect reservoir compartmentalization and improve reserve estimates. The final project goal is to derive a general strategy for integration for independent operators. Teamwork is the norm for the petroleum industry where teams of geologists, geophysicists, and petroleum engineers work together to improve profits through a better understanding of reservoir size, compartmentalization, and orientation as well as reservoir flow characteristics. In this manner, integration of data narrows the uncertainty in reserve estimates and enhances reservoir management decisions. The process of integration has proven to be iterative. Integration has helped identify reservoir compartmentalization and reduce the uncertainty in the reserve estimates. This research report documents specific examples of integration and the economic benefits of integration.

Solutions for decision support in university management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrei STANCIU

2009-06-01

Full Text Available The paper proposes an overview of decision support systems in order to define the role of a system to assist decision in university management. The authors present new technologies and the basic concepts of multidimensional data analysis using models of business processes within the universities. Based on information provided by scientific literature and on the authors’ experience, the study aims to define selection criteria in choosing a development environment for designing a support system dedicated to university management. The contributions consist in designing a data warehouse model and models of OLAP analysis to assist decision in university management.

Energy optimization through probabilistic annual forecast water release technique for major storage hydroelectric reservoir

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdul Bahari Othman; Mohd Zamri Yusoff

2006-01-01

One of the important decisions to be made by the management of hydroelectric power plant associated with major storage reservoir is to determine the best turbine water release decision for the next financial year. The water release decision enables firm energy generated estimation for the coming financial year to be done. This task is usually a simple and straightforward task provided that the amount of turbine water release is known. The more challenging task is to determine the best water release decision that is able to resolve the two conflicting operational objectives which are minimizing the drop of turbine gross head and maximizing upper reserve margin of the reservoir. Most techniques from literature emphasize on utilizing the statistical simulations approach. Markovians models, for example, are a class of statistical model that utilizes the past and the present system states as a basis for predicting the future [1]. This paper illustrates that rigorous solution criterion can be mathematically proven to resolve those two conflicting operational objectives. Thus, best water release decision that maximizes potential energy for the prevailing natural inflow is met. It is shown that the annual water release decision shall be made in such a manner that annual return inflow that has return frequency smaller than critical return frequency (f c ) should not be considered. This criterion enables target turbine gross head to be set to the well-defined elevation. In the other words, upper storage margin of the reservoir shall be made available to capture magnitude of future inflow that has return frequency greater than or equal to f c. A case study is shown to demonstrate practical application of the derived mathematical formulas

Reservoir fisheries of Asia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, S.S. De.

1990-01-01

At a workshop on reservoir fisheries research, papers were presented on the limnology of reservoirs, the changes that follow impoundment, fisheries management and modelling, and fish culture techniques. Separate abstracts have been prepared for three papers from this workshop

Many-Objective Robust Decision Making: Managing Water in a Deeply Uncertain World of Change (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Reed, P. M.

2013-12-01

Water resources planning and management has always required the consideration of uncertainties and the associated system vulnerabilities that they may cause. Despite the long legacy of these issues, our decision support frameworks that have dominated the literature over the past 50 years have struggled with the strongly multiobjective and deeply uncertain nature of water resources systems. The term deep uncertainty (or Knightian uncertainty) refers to factors in planning that strongly shape system risks that maybe unknown and even if known there is a strong lack of consensus on their likelihoods over decadal planning horizons (population growth, financial stability, valuation of resources, ecosystem requirements, evolving water institutions, regulations, etc). In this presentation, I will propose and demonstrate the many-objective robust decision making (MORDM) framework for water resources management under deep uncertainty. The MORDM framework will be demonstrated using an urban water portfolio management test case. In the test case, a city in the Lower Rio Grande Valley managing population and drought pressures must cost effectively maintain the reliability of its water supply by blending permanent rights to reservoir inflows with alternative strategies for purchasing water within the region's water market. The case study illustrates the significant potential pitfalls in the classic Cost-Reliability conception of the problem. Moreover, the proposed MORDM framework exploits recent advances in multiobjective search, visualization, and sensitivity analysis to better expose these pitfalls en route to identifying highly robust water planning alternatives.

A dataset of human decision-making in teamwork management

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Han; Shen, Zhiqi; Miao, Chunyan; Leung, Cyril; Chen, Yiqiang; Fauvel, Simon; Lin, Jun; Cui, Lizhen; Pan, Zhengxiang; Yang, Qiang

2017-01-01

Today, most endeavours require teamwork by people with diverse skills and characteristics. In managing teamwork, decisions are often made under uncertainty and resource constraints. The strategies and the effectiveness of the strategies different people adopt to manage teamwork under different situations have not yet been fully explored, partially due to a lack of detailed large-scale data. In this paper, we describe a multi-faceted large-scale dataset to bridge this gap. It is derived from a game simulating complex project management processes. It presents the participants with different conditions in terms of team members' capabilities and task characteristics for them to exhibit their decision-making strategies. The dataset contains detailed data reflecting the decision situations, decision strategies, decision outcomes, and the emotional responses of 1,144 participants from diverse backgrounds. To our knowledge, this is the first dataset simultaneously covering these four facets of decision-making. With repeated measurements, the dataset may help establish baseline variability of decision-making in teamwork management, leading to more realistic decision theoretic models and more effective decision support approaches.

Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1992-01-01

The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

COMMAND-AND-CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING,

Science.gov (United States)

Reports that the development of command-and-con trol systems in support of decision making and action taking has been accomplished by military...methods applicable to management systems. Concludes that the command-and-control type system for top management decision making is a man-machine system having as its core an on going, dynamic operation. (Author)

Bathymetry and capacity of Shawnee Reservoir, Oklahoma, 2016

Science.gov (United States)

Ashworth, Chad E.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Smith, Kevin A.

2017-02-13

capacity and between stage and reservoir surface area. The bathymetric map may serve as a baseline to which temporal changes in storage capacity, due to sedimentation and other factors, can be compared. The stage-storage relation may be used in the reporting of real-time Shawnee Reservoir storage capacity at USGS station 07241600 to support water-resource management decisions by the City of Shawnee.

Linkage of management decision to shareholder's value: EVA concept

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shrikant Krupasindhu Panigrahi

2014-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the author investigated the influence of management decisions like capital structure, dividend policies, remunerations, credit policy decisions and investment decisions on shareholder wealth maximization. To achieve the objective, portfolio theory, capital asset pricing model and modern financial theory providing evidence on the linkage between management decisions to shareholder’s value. Shareholders are only concerned about the value of shares of the company and the amount of return in the form of dividend paid. Thus in order to meet the demands of the shareholders of the company, managers needs to increase their abilities and skills to overcome the organizational goals. Thus the main goal of this paper is to discuss on the role of management decisions towards increasing shareholder’s wealth and meet organizational goals.

Reservoir management under consideration of stratification and hydraulic phenomena

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nandalal, K.D.W.

1995-01-01

Reservoirs are the most important components in a water resources system. They are used to store water to extend its temporal availability. The physical, chemical and biological characteristics of water change when impounded in reservoirs. This implies the possibility of using reservoirs

Corps Water Management System (CWMS) Decision Support Modeling and Integration Use in the June 2007 Texas Floods

Science.gov (United States)

Charley, W. J.; Luna, M.

2007-12-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Corps Water Management System (CWMS) is a comprehensive data acquisition and hydrologic modeling system for short-term decision support of water control operations in real time. It encompasses data collection, validation and transformation, data storage, visualization, real time model simulation for decision-making support, and data dissemination. CWMS uses an Oracle database and Sun Solaris workstations for data processes, storage and the execution of models, with a client application (the Control and Visualization Interface, or CAVI) that can run on a Windows PC. CWMS was used by the Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) to make hydrologic forecasts of flows on the Lower Colorado River and operate reservoirs during the June 2007 event in Texas. The LCRA receives real-time observed gridded spatial rainfall data from OneRain, Inc. that which is a result of adjusting NexRad rainfall data with precipitation gages. This data is used, along with future precipitation estimates, for hydrologic forecasting by the rainfall-runoff modeling program HEC-HMS. Forecasted flows from HEC-HMS and combined with observed flows and reservoir information to simulate LCRA's reservoir operations and help engineers make release decisions based on the results. The river hydraulics program, HEC-RAS, computes river stages and water surface profiles for the computed flow. An inundation boundary and depth map of water in the flood plain can be calculated from the HEC-RAS results using ArcInfo. By varying future precipitation and releases, engineers can evaluate different "What if?" scenarios. What was described as an "extraordinary cluster of thunderstorms" that stalled over Burnet and Llano counties in Texas on June 27, 2007, dropped 17 to 19 inches of rainfall over a 6-hour period. The storm was classified over a 500-year event and the resulting flow over some of the smaller tributaries as a 100-year or better. CWMS was used by LCRA for flood forecasting and

Watershed Models for Decision Support for Inflows to Potholes Reservoir, Washington

Science.gov (United States)

Mastin, Mark C.

2009-01-01

A set of watershed models for four basins (Crab Creek, Rocky Ford Creek, Rocky Coulee, and Lind Coulee), draining into Potholes Reservoir in east-central Washington, was developed as part of a decision support system to aid the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, in managing water resources in east-central Washington State. The project is part of the U.S. Geological Survey and Bureau of Reclamation collaborative Watershed and River Systems Management Program. A conceptual model of hydrology is outlined for the study area that highlights the significant processes that are important to accurately simulate discharge under a wide range of conditions. The conceptual model identified the following factors as significant for accurate discharge simulations: (1) influence of frozen ground on peak discharge, (2) evaporation and ground-water flow as major pathways in the system, (3) channel losses, and (4) influence of irrigation practices on reducing or increasing discharge. The Modular Modeling System was used to create a watershed model for the four study basins by combining standard Precipitation Runoff Modeling System modules with modified modules from a previous study and newly modified modules. The model proved unreliable in simulating peak-flow discharge because the index used to track frozen ground conditions was not reliable. Mean monthly and mean annual discharges were more reliable when simulated. Data from seven USGS streamflow-gaging stations were used to compare with simulated discharge for model calibration and evaluation. Mean annual differences between simulated and observed discharge varied from 1.2 to 13.8 percent for all stations used in the comparisons except one station on a regional ground-water discharge stream. Two thirds of the mean monthly percent differences between the simulated mean and the observed mean discharge for these six stations were between -20 and 240 percent, or in absolute terms, between -0.8 and 11 cubic feet per

G-REALM: A lake/reservoir monitoring tool for drought monitoring and water resources management.

Science.gov (United States)

Birkett, C. M.; Ricko, M.; Beckley, B. D.; Yang, X.; Tetrault, R. L.

2017-12-01

G-REALM is a NASA/USDA funded operational program offering water-level products for lakes and reservoirs and these are currently derived from the NASA/CNES Topex/Jason series of satellite radar altimeters. The main stakeholder is the USDA/Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) though many other end-users utilize the products for a variety of interdisciplinary science and operational programs. The FAS utilize the products within their CropExplorer Decision Support System (DSS) to help assess irrigation potential, and to monitor both short-term (agricultural) and longer-term (hydrological) drought conditions. There is increasing demand for a more global monitoring service that in particular, captures the variations in the smallest (1 to 100km2) reservoirs and water holdings in arid and semi-arid regions. Here, water resources are critical to both agriculture and regional security. A recent G-REALM 10-day resolution product upgrade and expansion has allowed for more accurate lake level products to be released and for a greater number of water bodies to be monitored. The next program phase focuses on the exploration of the enhanced radar altimeter data sets from the Cryosat-2 and Sentinel-3 missions with their improved spatial resolution, and the expansion of the system to the monitoring of 1,000 water bodies across the globe. In addition, a new element, the monitoring of surface water levels in wetland zones, is also being introduced. This aims to satisfy research and stakeholder requirements with respect to programs examining the links between inland fisheries catch potential and declining water levels, and to those monitoring the delicate balance between water resources, agriculture, and fisheries management in arid basins.

Universal approximators for multi-objective direct policy search in water reservoir management problems: a comparative analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, Matteo; Mason, Emanuele; Castelletti, Andrea; Pianosi, Francesca

2014-05-01

The optimal operation of water resources systems is a wide and challenging problem due to non-linearities in the model and the objectives, high dimensional state-control space, and strong uncertainties in the hydroclimatic regimes. The application of classical optimization techniques (e.g., SDP, Q-learning, gradient descent-based algorithms) is strongly limited by the dimensionality of the system and by the presence of multiple, conflicting objectives. This study presents a novel approach which combines Direct Policy Search (DPS) and Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms (MOEAs) to solve high-dimensional state and control space problems involving multiple objectives. DPS, also known as parameterization-simulation-optimization in the water resources literature, is a simulation-based approach where the reservoir operating policy is first parameterized within a given family of functions and, then, the parameters optimized with respect to the objectives of the management problem. The selection of a suitable class of functions to which the operating policy belong to is a key step, as it might restrict the search for the optimal policy to a subspace of the decision space that does not include the optimal solution. In the water reservoir literature, a number of classes have been proposed. However, many of these rules are based largely on empirical or experimental successes and they were designed mostly via simulation and for single-purpose reservoirs. In a multi-objective context similar rules can not easily inferred from the experience and the use of universal function approximators is generally preferred. In this work, we comparatively analyze two among the most common universal approximators: artificial neural networks (ANN) and radial basis functions (RBF) under different problem settings to estimate their scalability and flexibility in dealing with more and more complex problems. The multi-purpose HoaBinh water reservoir in Vietnam, accounting for hydropower

Management of Water Quantity and Quality Based on Copula for a Tributary to Miyun Reservoir, Beijing

Science.gov (United States)

Zang, N.; Wang, X.; Liang, P.

2017-12-01

Due to the complex mutual influence between water quantity and water quality of river, it is difficult to reflect the actual characters of the tributaries to reservoir. In this study, the acceptable marginal probability distributions for water quantity and quality of reservoir inflow were calculated. A bivariate Archimedean copula was further applied to establish the joint distribution function of them. Then multiple combination scenarios of water quantity and water quality were designed to analyze their coexistence relationship and reservoir management strategies. Taking Bai river, an important tributary into the Miyun Reservoir, as a study case. The results showed that it is feasible to apply Frank copula function to describe the jointed distribution function of water quality and water quantity for Bai river. Furthermore, the monitoring of TP concentration needs to be strengthen in Bai river. This methodology can be extended to larger dimensions and is transferable to other reservoirs via establishment of models with relevant data for a particular area. Our findings help better analyzing the coexistence relationship and influence degree of the water quantity and quality of the tributary to reservoir for the purpose of water resources protection.

Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions through 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

2016-09-08

Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2014, diversions of about 216,000 acre-feet from the Virgin River to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed the reservoir to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir stage and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2014, about 29,000 acre-feet of groundwater was withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, about 31,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir. From 2002 through 2014, about 127,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer.Water quality continued to be monitored at various wells in Sand Hollow during 2013–14 to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge as it moved through the aquifer. Changing geochemical conditions at monitoring wells WD 4 and WD 12 indicate rising groundwater levels and mobilization of vadose-zone salts, which could be a precursor to the arrival of reservoir recharge.

Assessment of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions in 2010

Science.gov (United States)

Heilweil, Victor M.; Marston, Thomas M.

2011-01-01

Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2009, total surface-water diversions of about 154,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed it to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir water-level altitude and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2009, a total of about 13,000 acre-feet of groundwater has been withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, a total of about 14,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir.From 2002 through 2009, about 86,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Water-quality sampling was conducted at various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge moving through the aquifer. Tracers of reservoir recharge include major and minor dissolved inorganic ions, tritium, dissolved organic carbon, chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and noble gases. By 2010, this recharge arrived at monitoring wells within about 1,000 feet of the reservoir.

Hydroeconomic optimization of reservoir management under downstream water quality constraints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davidsen, Claus; Liu, Suxia; Mo, Xingguo

2015-01-01

water quantity and water quality management and minimizes the total costs over a planning period assuming stochastic future runoff. The outcome includes cost-optimal reservoir releases, groundwater pumping, water allocation, wastewater treatments and water curtailments. The optimization model uses......), and the resulting minimum dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration is computed with the Streeter-Phelps equation and constrained to match Chinese water quality targets. The baseline water scarcity and operational costs are estimated to 15.6. billion. CNY/year. Compliance to water quality grade III causes a relatively...

Assessment of managed aquifer recharge at Sand Hollow Reservoir, Washington County, Utah, updated to conditions in 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

2013-01-01

Sand Hollow Reservoir in Washington County, Utah, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily for managed aquifer recharge by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. From 2002 through 2011, surface-water diversions of about 199,000 acre-feet to Sand Hollow Reservoir have allowed the reservoir to remain nearly full since 2006. Groundwater levels in monitoring wells near the reservoir rose through 2006 and have fluctuated more recently because of variations in reservoir altitude and nearby pumping from production wells. Between 2004 and 2011, a total of about 19,000 acre-feet of groundwater was withdrawn by these wells for municipal supply. In addition, a total of about 21,000 acre-feet of shallow seepage was captured by French drains adjacent to the North and West Dams and used for municipal supply, irrigation, or returned to the reservoir. From 2002 through 2011, about 106,000 acre-feet of water seeped beneath the reservoir to recharge the underlying Navajo Sandstone aquifer. Water quality was sampled at various monitoring wells in Sand Hollow to evaluate the timing and location of reservoir recharge as it moved through the aquifer. Tracers of reservoir recharge include major and minor dissolved inorganic ions, tritium, dissolved organic carbon, chlorofluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, and noble gases. By 2012, this recharge arrived at four monitoring wells located within about 1,000 feet of the reservoir. Changing geochemical conditions at five other monitoring wells could indicate other processes, such as changing groundwater levels and mobilization of vadose-zone salts, rather than arrival of reservoir recharge.

Low flows and reservoir management for the Durance River basin (Southern France) in the 2050s

Science.gov (United States)

Sauquet, Eric

2015-04-01

. A model of water management similar to the tools used by Electricité De France was calibrated to simulate the behavior of the three reservoirs Serre-Ponçon, Castillon, Sainte-Croix on present-day conditions. This model simulates water releases from reservoir under constraints imposed by rule curves, ecological flows downstream to the dams and water levels in summer for recreational purposes. The results demonstrate the relatively good performance of this simplified model and its ability to represent the influence of reservoir operations on the natural hydrological river flow regime, the decision-making involved in water management and the interactions at regional scale. Four territorial socio-economic scenarios have been also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the area supplied with water from the Durance River basin. This presentation will focus on the specific tools developed within the project to simulate water management and water abstractions. The main conclusions related to the risk of water shortage in the 2050s and the level of satisfaction for each water use will be also discussed.

Navy Inventory Management Decision-Making

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

MacDonald, Steven

1997-01-01

.... This thesis asserts that Navy inventory managers do not have a general tendency to overbuy items, but rather make rational purchasing decisions influenced and motivated by the environment of rewards...

Multi-agent Water Resources Management

Science.gov (United States)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

2011-12-01

Increasing environmental awareness and emerging trends such as water trading, energy market, deregulation and democratization of water-related services are challenging integrated water resources planning and management worldwide. The traditional approach to water management design based on sector-by-sector optimization has to be reshaped to account for multiple interrelated decision-makers and many stakeholders with increasing decision power. Centralized management, though interesting from a conceptual point of view, is unfeasible in most of the modern social and institutional contexts, and often economically inefficient. Coordinated management, where different actors interact within a full open trust exchange paradigm under some institutional supervision is a promising alternative to the ideal centralized solution and the actual uncoordinated practices. This is a significant issue in most of the Southern Alps regulated lakes, where upstream hydropower reservoirs maximize their benefit independently form downstream users; it becomes even more relevant in the case of transboundary systems, where water management upstream affects water availability downstream (e.g. the River Zambesi flowing through Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique or the Red River flowing from South-Western China through Northern Vietnam. In this study we apply Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) theory to design an optimal management in a decentralized way, considering a set of multiple autonomous agents acting in the same environment and taking into account the pay-off of individual water users, which are inherently distributed along the river and need to coordinate to jointly reach their objectives. In this way each real-world actor, representing the decision-making entity (e.g. the operator of a reservoir or a diversion dam) can be represented one-to-one by a computer agent, defined as a computer system that is situated in some environment and that is capable of autonomous action in this environment in

Controlling Eutrophication in A Mediterranean Shallow Reservoir by Phosphorus Loading Reduction: The Need for an Integrated Management Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Zaragüeta, Mikel; Acebes, Pablo

2017-04-01

Increased nutrient enrichment in Mediterranean standing waters has enhanced the risk of being affected by cyanobacterial blooms. Because phosphorus abatement is shaped as a crucial strategy for controlling eutrophication, this study introduces a structural thinking, experiential learning laboratory with animation dynamic model elaborated for Cazalegas Reservoir (Spain) to assess the feasibility of implementing a set of internal and external control measures and hydromorphological adjustments to meet the goal of oligotrophication. This shallow reservoir is another case where recurrent eutrophication has led to reach annual mean total phosphorus concentrations (0.16 ± 0.08 mg total phosphorus/L) over the threshold of current water policies, triggering cyanobacterial growth up to undesirable levels in summer time (approximately 50,000 cells/mL). Modeling results showed that (i) after upgrading water treatment in the main tributary, (ii) applying a lanthanum-modified bentonite into the water column and sediment, and (iii) increasing reservoir water level, in-lake P concentrations and cyanobacterial abundance decreased in an 88% (below 0.01 mg total phosphorus/L) and 84% (below 6000 cells/mL), respectively in the most critical periods. However, the constraints of the proposed management strategies are associated with their costs of implementation and the time span for a stable trophic recovery of the reservoir. In that end, integrated management approaches are aimed to be adopted by water managers to reach adequate ecological status of freshwater bodies.

Trade-off decisions in distribution utility management

Science.gov (United States)

Slavickas, Rimas Anthony

As a result of the "unbundling" of traditional monopolistic electricity generation and transmission enterprises into a free-market economy, power distribution utilities are faced with very difficult decisions pertaining to electricity supply options and quality of service to the customers. The management of distribution utilities has become increasingly complex, versatile, and dynamic to the extent that conventional, non-automated management tools are almost useless and obsolete. This thesis presents a novel and unified approach to managing electricity supply options and quality of service to customers. The technique formulates the problem in terms of variables, parameters, and constraints. An advanced Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) optimization formulation is developed together with novel, logical, decision-making algorithms. These tools enable the utility management to optimize various cost components and assess their time-trend impacts, taking into account the intangible issues such as customer perception, customer expectation, social pressures, and public response to service deterioration. The above concepts are further generalized and a Logical Proportion Analysis (LPA) methodology and associated software have been developed. Solutions using numbers are replaced with solutions using words (character strings) which more closely emulate the human decision-making process and advance the art of decision-making in the power utility environment. Using practical distribution utility operation data and customer surveys, the developments outlined in this thesis are successfully applied to several important utility management problems. These involve the evaluation of alternative electricity supply options, the impact of rate structures on utility business, and the decision of whether to continue to purchase from a main grid or generate locally (partially or totally) by building Non-Utility Generation (NUG).

Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers

Science.gov (United States)

Robyn S. Wilson; Patricia L. Winter; Lynn A. Maguire; Timothy. Ascher

2011-01-01

Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at the time of the decision. The research reported here tests the prevalence of three risk-based biases among 206...

An Alternative Approach to the Operation of Multinational Reservoir Systems: Application to the Amistad & Falcon System (Lower Rio Grande/Rí-o Bravo)

Science.gov (United States)

Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.

2005-12-01

An optimization approach for the operation of international multi-reservoir systems is presented. The approach uses Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) algorithms, both steady-state and real-time, to develop two models. In the first model, the reservoirs and flows of the system are aggregated to yield an equivalent reservoir, and the obtained operating policies are disaggregated using a non-linear optimization procedure for each reservoir and for each nation water balance. In the second model a multi-reservoir approach is applied, disaggregating the releases for each country water share in each reservoir. The non-linear disaggregation algorithm uses SDP-derived operating policies as boundary conditions for a local time-step optimization. Finally, the performance of the different approaches and methods is compared. These models are applied to the Amistad-Falcon International Reservoir System as part of a binational dynamic modeling effort to develop a decision support system tool for a better management of the water resources in the Lower Rio Grande Basin, currently enduring a severe drought.

Real-time management of a multipurpose water reservoir with a heteroscedastic inflow model

Science.gov (United States)

Pianosi, F.; Soncini-Sessa, R.

2009-10-01

Stochastic dynamic programming has been extensively used as a method for designing optimal regulation policies for water reservoirs. However, the potential of this method is dramatically reduced by its computational burden, which often forces to introduce strong approximations in the model of the system, especially in the description of the reservoir inflow. In this paper, an approach to partially remedy this problem is proposed and applied to a real world case study. It foresees solving the management problem on-line, using a reduced model of the system and the inflow forecast provided by a dynamic model. By doing so, all the hydrometeorological information that is available in real-time is fully exploited. The model here proposed for the inflow forecasting is a nonlinear, heteroscedastic model that provides both the expected value and the standard deviation of the inflow through dynamic relations. The effectiveness of such model for the purpose of the reservoir regulation is evaluated through simulation and comparison with the results provided by conventional homoscedastic inflow models.

Application of decision science to resilience management in Jamaica Bay

Science.gov (United States)

Eaton, Mitchell; Fuller, Angela K.; Johnson, Fred A.; Hare, M. P.; Stedman, Richard C.; Sanderson, E.W.; Solecki, W. D.; Waldman, J.R.; Paris, A. S.

2016-01-01

This book highlights the growing interest in management interventions designed to enhance the resilience of the Jamaica Bay socio-ecological system. Effective management, whether the focus is on managing biological processes or human behavior or (most likely) both, requires decision makers to anticipate how the managed system will respond to interventions (i.e., via predictions or projections). In systems characterized by many interacting components and high uncertainty, making probabilistic predictions is often difficult and requires careful thinking not only about system dynamics, but also about how management objectives are specified and the analytic method used to select the preferred action(s). Developing a clear statement of the problem(s) and articulation of management objectives is often best achieved by including input from managers, scientists and other stakeholders affected by the decision through a process of joint problem framing (Marcot and others 2012; Keeney and others 1990). Using a deliberate, coherent and transparent framework for deciding among management alternatives to best meet these objectives then ensures a greater likelihood for successful intervention. Decision science provides the theoretical and practical basis for developing this framework and applying decision analysis methods for making complex decisions under uncertainty and risk.

Group decision-making techniques for natural resource management applications

Science.gov (United States)

Coughlan, Beth A.K.; Armour, Carl L.

1992-01-01

This report is an introduction to decision analysis and problem-solving techniques for professionals in natural resource management. Although these managers are often called upon to make complex decisions, their training in the natural sciences seldom provides exposure to the decision-making tools developed in management science. Our purpose is to being to fill this gap. We present a general analysis of the pitfalls of group problem solving, and suggestions for improved interactions followed by the specific techniques. Selected techniques are illustrated. The material is easy to understand and apply without previous training or excessive study and is applicable to natural resource management issues.

Drill and learn: A decision making workflow to quantify value of learning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hanea, R.G.; Casanova, P.; Hustoft, L.; Bratvold, R.B.; Nair, R.; Hewson, C.W.; Leeuwenburgh, O.; Fonseca, R.M.

2017-01-01

The goal of reservoir management is to make decisions with the objective of maximizing the value creation from the oil or gas production. In order to do this models that preserve geological realism and have predictive capabilities are being developed and used. These models are commonly calibrated by

Decision support system for optimally managing water resources to meet multiple objectives in the Savannah River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Roehl, Edwin A.; Conrads, Paul

2015-01-01

Managers of large river basins face conflicting demands for water resources such as wildlife habitat, water supply, wastewater assimilative capacity, flood control, hydroelectricity, and recreation. The Savannah River Basin, for example, has experienced three major droughts since 2000 that resulted in record low water levels in its reservoirs, impacting dependent economies for years. The Savannah River estuary contains two municipal water intakes and the ecologically sensitive freshwater tidal marshes of the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge. The Port of Savannah is the fourth busiest in the United States, and modifications to the harbor to expand ship traffic since the 1970s have caused saltwater to migrate upstream, reducing the freshwater marsh’s acreage more than 50 percent. A planned deepening of the harbor includes flow-alteration features to minimize further migration of salinity, whose effectiveness will only be known after all construction is completed.One of the challenges of large basin management is the optimization of water use through ongoing regional economic development, droughts, and climate change. This paper describes a model of the Savannah River Basin designed to continuously optimize regulated flow to meet prioritized objectives set by resource managers and stakeholders. The model was developed from historical data using machine learning, making it more accurate and adaptable to changing conditions than traditional models. The model is coupled to an optimization routine that computes the daily flow needed to most efficiently meet the water-resource management objectives. The model and optimization routine are packaged in a decision support system that makes it easy for managers and stakeholders to use. Simulation results show that flow can be regulated to substantially reduce salinity intrusions in the Savannah National Wildlife Refuge, while conserving more water in the reservoirs. A method for using the model to assess the effectiveness of

Quantifying suspended sediment loads delivered to Cheney Reservoir, Kansas: Temporal patterns and management implications

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, Mandy L.; Juracek, Kyle E.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Foster, Guy

2015-01-01

average, within ±20% of estimates based on streamflow and turbidity combined. Results demonstrate that large suspended sediment loads are delivered to Cheney Reservoir in very short time periods, indicating that sediment management plans eventually must address large, infrequent inflow events to be effective.

Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection

Science.gov (United States)

Mafalda, Viana; Rebecca, Mancy; Roman, Biek; Sarah, Cleaveland; Cross, Paul C.; James O, Lloyd-Smith; Daniel T, Haydon

2014-01-01

Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems.

Analysis of selected reservoirs functioning in the Wielkopolska region

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariusz Sojka

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the problems related to the functioning of reservoirs in the Wielkopolska province and suggests their possible solutions. The reservoirs chosen as examples include typical dam constructions with a single water body (Jeziorsko, Rydzyna, two water body objects with separated preliminary part (Stare Miasto, Kowalskie, Radzyny and lateral constructions (Pakosław, Jutrosin. The reservoirs were built in period from 1970 to 2014. They differ in construction, functions and water management rules. Analysis of the main problems related to the reservoir functioning is aimed at finding ways of improving the construction of new reservoirs that would satisfy increasingly stringent environmental and legal restrictions and the methods of water management in the reservoirs. On the basis of a questionnaire filled in by the reservoir operators, the main problem is water quality. Especially the huge inflow of biogenic compounds causes blooms of algae and overgrowth with riparian vegetation. Some difficulties are also related to management of the reservoirs of multi-purpose operation. It is difficult to take into account the requirements of environmental flow maintenance, flood protection, water supply for agriculture and water use for tourism and recreation and hydropower generation, etc.

Multiunit water resource systems management by decomposition, optimization and emulated evolution : a case study of seven water supply reservoirs in Tunisia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Milutin, D.

1998-01-01

Being one of the essential elements of almost any water resource system, reservoirs are indispensable in our struggle to harness, utilize and manage natural water resources. Consequently, the derivation of appropriate reservoir operating strategies draws significant attention in water

Portfolio Management Decision Support Tools Analysis Relating to Management Value Metrics

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Goodson, Christopher J; Knutson, Richard D

2007-01-01

.... The results of this research will assist MDA managers, and operational leaders, in making portfolio management decisions for allocating resources to create the correct support tools for MDA processes...

Stakeholder views of management and decision support tools to integrate climate change into Great Lakes Lake Whitefish management

Science.gov (United States)

Lynch, Abigail J.; Taylor, William W.; McCright, Aaron M.

2016-01-01

Decision support tools can aid decision making by systematically incorporating information, accounting for uncertainties, and facilitating evaluation between alternatives. Without user buy-in, however, decision support tools can fail to influence decision-making processes. We surveyed fishery researchers, managers, and fishers affiliated with the Lake Whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis fishery in the 1836 Treaty Waters of Lakes Huron, Michigan, and Superior to assess opinions of current and future management needs to identify barriers to, and opportunities for, developing a decision support tool based on Lake Whitefish recruitment projections with climate change. Approximately 64% of 39 respondents were satisfied with current management, and nearly 85% agreed that science was well integrated into management programs. Though decision support tools can facilitate science integration into management, respondents suggest that they face significant implementation barriers, including lack of political will to change management and perceived uncertainty in decision support outputs. Recommendations from this survey can inform development of decision support tools for fishery management in the Great Lakes and other regions.

Compliance Principles for Decision Management Solutions at the Dutch Government

NARCIS (Netherlands)

dr. Martijn Zoet; Koen Smit; Dr.ir. Raymond Slot

2016-01-01

From the article: Abstract Since decision management is becoming an integrated part of business process management, more and more decision management implementations are realized. Therefore, organizations search for guidance to design such solutions. Principles are often applied to guide the design

Modeling and analysis of collective management of water resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Tilmant

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM recommends, among other things, that the management of water resources systems be carried out at the lowest appropriate level in order to increase the transparency, acceptability and efficiency of the decision-making process. Empowering water users and stakeholders transforms the decision-making process by enlarging the number of point of views that must be considered as well as the set of rules through which decisions are taken. This paper investigates the impact of different group decision-making approaches on the operating policies of a water resource. To achieve this, the water resource allocation problem is formulated as an optimization problem which seeks to maximize the aggregated satisfaction of various water users corresponding to different approaches to collective choice, namely the utilitarian and the egalitarian ones. The optimal operating policies are then used in simulation and compared. The concepts are illustrated with a multipurpose reservoir in Chile. The analysis of simulation results reveals that if this reservoir were to be managed by its water users, both approaches to collective choice would yield significantly different operating policies. The paper concludes that the transfer of management to water users must be carefully implemented if a reasonable trade-off between equity and efficiency is to be achieved.

Solid Waste Management Holistic Decision Modeling

OpenAIRE

World Bank

2008-01-01

This study provides support to the Bank's ability to conduct client dialogue on solid waste management technology selection, and will contribute to client decision-making. The goal of the study was to fully explore the use of the United States Environmental Protection Agency and the Research Triangle Institute (EPA/RTI) holistic decision model to study alternative solid waste systems in a ...

Numerical simulation of groundwater movement and managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir, Hurricane Bench area, Washington County, Utah

Science.gov (United States)

Marston, Thomas M.; Heilweil, Victor M.

2012-01-01

The Hurricane Bench area of Washington County, Utah, is a 70 square-mile area extending south from the Virgin River and encompassing Sand Hollow basin. Sand Hollow Reservoir, located on Hurricane Bench, was completed in March 2002 and is operated primarily as a managed aquifer recharge project by the Washington County Water Conservancy District. The reservoir is situated on a thick sequence of the Navajo Sandstone and Kayenta Formation. Total recharge to the underlying Navajo aquifer from the reservoir was about 86,000 acre-feet from 2002 to 2009. Natural recharge as infiltration of precipitation was approximately 2,100 acre-feet per year for the same period. Discharge occurs as seepage to the Virgin River, municipal and irrigation well withdrawals, and seepage to drains at the base of reservoir dams. Within the Hurricane Bench area, unconfined groundwater-flow conditions generally exist throughout the Navajo Sandstone. Navajo Sandstone hydraulic-conductivity values from regional aquifer testing range from 0.8 to 32 feet per day. The large variability in hydraulic conductivity is attributed to bedrock fractures that trend north-northeast across the study area.A numerical groundwater-flow model was developed to simulate groundwater movement in the Hurricane Bench area and to simulate the movement of managed aquifer recharge from Sand Hollow Reservoir through the groundwater system. The model was calibrated to combined steady- and transient-state conditions. The steady-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data that represented average conditions for 1975. The transient-state portion of the simulation was developed and calibrated by using hydrologic data collected from 1976 to 2009. Areally, the model grid was 98 rows by 76 columns with a variable cell size ranging from about 1.5 to 25 acres. Smaller cells were used to represent the reservoir to accurately simulate the reservoir bathymetry and nearby monitoring wells; larger

Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

2010-12-01

Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover

Understanding satellite-based monthly-to-seasonal reservoir outflow estimation as a function of hydrologic controls

Science.gov (United States)

Bonnema, Matthew; Sikder, Safat; Miao, Yabin; Chen, Xiaodong; Hossain, Faisal; Ara Pervin, Ismat; Mahbubur Rahman, S. M.; Lee, Hyongki

2016-05-01

Growing population and increased demand for water is causing an increase in dam and reservoir construction in developing nations. When rivers cross international boundaries, the downstream stakeholders often have little knowledge of upstream reservoir operation practices. Satellite remote sensing in the form of radar altimetry and multisensor precipitation products can be used as a practical way to provide downstream stakeholders with the fundamentally elusive upstream information on reservoir outflow needed to make important and proactive water management decisions. This study uses a mass balance approach of three hydrologic controls to estimate reservoir outflow from satellite data at monthly and annual time scales: precipitation-induced inflow, evaporation, and reservoir storage change. Furthermore, this study explores the importance of each of these hydrologic controls to the accuracy of outflow estimation. The hydrologic controls found to be unimportant could potentially be neglected from similar future studies. Two reservoirs were examined in contrasting regions of the world, the Hungry Horse Reservoir in a mountainous region in northwest U.S. and the Kaptai Reservoir in a low-lying, forested region of Bangladesh. It was found that this mass balance method estimated the annual outflow of both reservoirs with reasonable skill. The estimation of monthly outflow from both reservoirs was however less accurate. The Kaptai basin exhibited a shift in basin behavior resulting in variable accuracy across the 9 year study period. Monthly outflow estimation from Hungry Horse Reservoir was compounded by snow accumulation and melt processes, reflected by relatively low accuracy in summer and fall, when snow processes control runoff. Furthermore, it was found that the important hydrologic controls for reservoir outflow estimation at the monthly time scale differs between the two reservoirs, with precipitation-induced inflow being the most important control for the Kaptai

Merging paradigms: Decision Making, Management, and Cognitive Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jens

1996-01-01

The paper discusses the trend in paradigms within decision research, drifting from concepts of decision making in terms of normative models of 'rational decision making, through behavioral models in terms of 'biases' - deviations from rational models, toward models of actual decision making...... behavior, such as the SRK concept, naturalistic decision making, and dynamic decision making.In this evolution, concepts such as decision making, management, and behavioral control merge and a concurrent change in concepts underlying design of systems aiming at control of behavior is visible, from...

Development of a decision support tool for seasonal water supply management incorporating system uncertainties and operational constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Asefa, T.

2017-12-01

A real-time decision support tool (DST) for water supply system would consider system uncertainties, e.g., uncertain streamflow and demand, as well as operational constraints and infrastructure outage (e.g., pump station shutdown, an offline reservoir due to maintenance). Such DST is often used by water managers for resource allocation and delivery for customers. Although most seasonal DST used by water managers recognize those system uncertainties and operational constraints, most use only historical information or assume deterministic outlook of water supply systems. This study presents a seasonal DST that incorporates rainfall/streamflow uncertainties, seasonal demand outlook and system operational constraints. Large scale climate-information is captured through a rainfall simulator driven by a Bayesian non-homogeneous Markov Chain Monte Carlo model that allows non-stationary transition probabilities contingent on Nino 3.4 index. An ad-hoc seasonal demand forecasting model considers weather conditions explicitly and socio-economic factors implicitly. Latin Hypercube sampling is employed to effectively sample probability density functions of flow and demand. Seasonal system operation is modelled as a mixed-integer optimization problem that aims at minimizing operational costs. It embeds the flexibility of modifying operational rules at different components, e.g., surface water treatment plants, desalination facilities, and groundwater pumping stations. The proposed framework is illustrated at a wholesale water supplier in Southeastern United States, Tampa Bay Water. The use of the tool is demonstrated in proving operational guidance in a typical drawdown and refill cycle of a regional reservoir. The DST provided: 1) probabilistic outlook of reservoir storage and chance of a successful refill by the end of rainy season; 2) operational expectations for large infrastructures (e.g., high service pumps and booster stations) throughout the season. Other potential use

Knowledge-Based Information Management in Decision Support for Ecosystem Management

Science.gov (United States)

Keith Reynolds; Micahel Saunders; Richard Olson; Daniel Schmoldt; Michael Foster; Donald Latham; Bruce Miller; John Steffenson; Lawrence Bednar; Patrick Cunningham

1995-01-01

The Pacific Northwest Research Station (USDA Forest Service) is developing a knowledge-based information management system to provide decision support for watershed analysis in the Pacific Northwest region of the U.S. The decision support system includes: (1) a GIS interface that allows users to graphically navigate to specific provinces and watersheds and display a...

Technology strategy for integrated operations and real time reservoir management; Technology Target Areas; TTA5 - Integrated operations and RTRM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2007-07-01

In Norway Integrated Operations (IO) is a concept which in the first phase (G1) has been used to describe how to integrate processes and people onshore and offshore using ICT solutions and facilities that improve onshore's ability to support offshore operationally. The second generation (G2) Integrated Operations aims to help operators utilize vendors' core competencies and services more efficiently. Utilizing digital services and vendor products, operators will be able to update reservoir models, drilling targets and well trajectories as wells are drilled, manage well completions remotely, optimize production from reservoir to export lines, and implement condition-based maintenance concepts. The total impact on production, recovery rates, costs and safety will be profound. When the international petroleum business moves to the Arctic region the setting is very different from what is the case on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and new challenges will arise. The Norwegian Ministry of Environment has recently issued an Integrated Management Plan for the Barents Sea where one focus is on 'Monitoring of the Marine Environment in the North'. The Government aims to establish a new and more coordinated system for monitoring the marine ecosystems in the north. A representative group consisting of the major Operators, the Service Industry, Academia and the Authorities have developed the enclosed strategy for the OG21 Integrated Operations and Real Time Reservoir Management (IO and RTRM) Technology Target Area (TTA). Major technology and work process research and development gaps have been identified in several areas: Bandwidth down-hole to surface; Sensor development including Nano-technology; Cross discipline use of Visualisation, Simulation and model development particularly in Drilling and Reservoir management areas; Software development in terms of data handling, model updating and calculation speed; Enabling reliable and robust communications particularly for

Technology strategy for integrated operations and real time reservoir management; Technology Target Areas; TTA5 - Integrated operations and RTRM

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2007-07-01

In Norway Integrated Operations (IO) is a concept which in the first phase (G1) has been used to describe how to integrate processes and people onshore and offshore using ICT solutions and facilities that improve onshore's ability to support offshore operationally. The second generation (G2) Integrated Operations aims to help operators utilize vendors' core competencies and services more efficiently. Utilizing digital services and vendor products, operators will be able to update reservoir models, drilling targets and well trajectories as wells are drilled, manage well completions remotely, optimize production from reservoir to export lines, and implement condition-based maintenance concepts. The total impact on production, recovery rates, costs and safety will be profound. When the international petroleum business moves to the Arctic region the setting is very different from what is the case on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) and new challenges will arise. The Norwegian Ministry of Environment has recently issued an Integrated Management Plan for the Barents Sea where one focus is on 'Monitoring of the Marine Environment in the North'. The Government aims to establish a new and more coordinated system for monitoring the marine ecosystems in the north. A representative group consisting of the major Operators, the Service Industry, Academia and the Authorities have developed the enclosed strategy for the OG21 Integrated Operations and Real Time Reservoir Management (IO and RTRM) Technology Target Area (TTA). Major technology and work process research and development gaps have been identified in several areas: Bandwidth down-hole to surface; Sensor development including Nano-technology; Cross discipline use of Visualisation, Simulation and model development particularly in Drilling and Reservoir management areas; Software development in terms of data handling, model updating and calculation speed; Enabling reliable and robust communications

Simulation of the hydrodynamic behaviour of a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change and management scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Prats

2017-11-01

Full Text Available One of the most important current issues in the management of lakes and reservoirs is the prediction of global climate change effects to determine appropriate mitigation and adaptation actions. In this paper we analyse whether management actions can limit the effects of climate change on water temperatures in a reservoir. For this, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France in the medium term (2036-2065 and in the long term (2066-2095 using regionalised projections by the model CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 under the emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Water temperature projections were compared to simulations for the reference period 1993-2013, the longest period for which we had year-long data for both hydrology and meteorology. We calibrated the model using profile measurements for the period 2010-2011 and we carried an extensive validation and assessment of model performance. In fact, we validated the model using profile measurements for 2012-2014, obtaining a root mean square error of 1.08°C and mean bias of -0.11°C, and we assured the consistency of model simulations in the long term by comparing simulated surface temperature to satellite measurements for 1999-2013. We assessed the effect using synthetic input data instead of measured input data by comparing simulations made using both kinds of data for the reference period. Using synthetic data resulted in slightly lower (-0.3°C average and maximum epilimnion temperatures, a somewhat deeper thermocline, and slightly higher evaporation (+7%. To investigate the effect of different management strategies, we considered three management scenarios: i bottom outlet and present water level; ii bottom outlet and elevated water level; and iii surface outlet and elevated water level. According to the simulations, the reservoir of Bimont will have a low rate of warming of the epilimnion of 0.009-0.024 °C·yr-1, but a

Improving IT Portfolio Management Decision Confidence Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making and Hypervariate Display Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Landmesser, John Andrew

2014-01-01

Information technology (IT) investment decision makers are required to process large volumes of complex data. An existing body of knowledge relevant to IT portfolio management (PfM), decision analysis, visual comprehension of large volumes of information, and IT investment decision making suggest Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) and…

[Research progress on phosphorus budgets and regulations in reservoirs].

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Xiao; Li, Xu; Zhang, Wang-shou

2014-12-01

Phosphorus is an important limiting factor of water eutrophication. A clear understanding of its budget and regulated method is fundamental for reservoir ecological health. In order to pro- mote systematic research further and improve phosphorus regulation system, the budget balance of reservoir phosphorus and its influencing factors were concluded, as well as conventional regulation and control measures. In general, the main phosphorus sources of reservoirs include upstream input, overland runoff, industrial and domestic wastewater, aquaculture, atmospheric deposition and sediment release. Upstream input is the largest phosphorus source among them. The principal output path of phosphorus is the flood discharge, the emission load of which is mainly influenced by drainage patterns. In addition, biological harvest also can export a fraction of phosphorus. There are some factors affecting the reservoir phosphorus balance, including reservoirs' function, hydrological conditions, physical and chemical properties of water, etc. Therefore, the phosphorus budgets of different reservoirs vary greatly, according to different seasons and regions. In order to reduce the phosphorus loading in reservoirs, some methods are carried out, including constructed wetlands, prefix reservoir, sediment dredging, biomanipulation, etc. Different methods need to be chosen and combined according to different reservoirs' characteristics and water quality management goals. Thus, in the future research, it is reasonable to highlight reservoir ecological characteristics and proceed to a complete and systematic analysis of the inherent complexity of phosphorus budget and its impact factors for the reservoirs' management. Besides, the interaction between phosphorus budget and other nutrients in reservoirs also needs to be conducted. It is fundamental to reduce the reservoirs' phosphorus loading to establish a scientific and improved management system based on those researches.

Practical Application of Modern Forecasting and Decision Tools at an Operational River Management Agency

Science.gov (United States)

Jawdy, C. M.; Carney, S.; Barber, N. M.; Balk, B. C.; Miller, G. A.

2017-12-01

The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) recently completed a complete overhaul of our River Forecast System (RFS). This modernization effort encompassed: uplift or addition of 89 data feeds calibration of a 140 subbasin rainfall-runoff model calibration of over 650 miles of hydraulic routings implementation of a decision optimization routine for 29 reservoirs implementation of hydrothermal forecast models for five river-cooled thermal plants creation of decision-friendly displays creation of a user-friendly wiki creation of a robust reporting system This talk will walk attendees through how a 24x7 river and grid management agency made decisions around how to operationalize the latest technologies in hydrology, hydraulics, decision science and information technology. The tradeoffs inherent in such an endeavor will be discussed so that research-oriented attendees can understand how best to align their research if they desire adoption within industry. More industry-oriented attendees can learn about the mechanics of how to succeed at such a large and complex project. Following the description of the modernization project, I can discuss TVA's plans for future growth of the system. We plan to add the following capabilities in the coming years: forecast verification tools to communicate floodplain risk tools to choose the best possible model forcings ensemble inflow modelling a river policy that allows for more reasonable tradeoff of benefits river decisions based on ensembles The iterative staging of such improvements is highly fraught with technical, political and operational risks. I will discuss how TVA's is using what we learned in the RFS modernization effort to grow further into delivering on the promise of these additional technologies.

THE INFLUENCE OF TOP MANAGEMENT DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS ON DECISION MAKING APPROACHES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivana Bulog

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Today’s organizational environment requires managers to be an excellent decision maker with the ability to make effective decisions which will shape business performance. Because of the role that managers have in today’s business settings, research interest in the relationship between individual characteristics and managerial decision making in all its aspects has increased over the last decade. This paper aims to provide an overview and discussion of how individuals make choices and decisions by examining the influence of top management demographic characteristics on decision making approaches. Findings suggest that demographic characteristics appear to be valuable for predicting which decision making approach managers prefer. The results of the study show that the average age and education level of decision makers is positively related to the rational decision making approach and negatively to the intuitive decision making approach. Tenure is positively related to the intuitive decision making approach, but the influence is not statistically significant. Also, a difference in the decision making approach was found with respect to gender. In light of the research findings, implications and limitations were discussed and some possibilities for future research are suggested.

Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Molina-Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia; Sastre-Merlín, Antonio; Jeppesen, Erik

2014-02-01

Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model developed for a small Mediterranean catchment to quantify the potential effects of various climate and land use change scenarios on catchment hydrology as well as the trophic state of a new kind of waterbody, a limno-reservoir (Pareja Limno-reservoir), created for environmental and recreational purposes. We also checked for the possible synergistic effects of changes in climate and land use on water flow and nutrient exports from the catchment. Simulations showed a noticeable impact of climate change in the river flow regime and consequently the water level of the limno-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected in the worst-case combined scenario compared to the sum of individual scenarios. Our model framework may help water managers to assess and manage how these multiple environmental stressors interact and ultimately affect aquatic ecosystems.

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Science.gov (United States)

Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Decision support system for containment and release management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oosterhuis, B [Twente Univ., Enschede (Netherlands). Computer Science Dept.

1995-09-01

The Containment and Release Management project was carried out within the Reinforced Concerted Action Programme for Accident Management Support and partly financed by the European Union. In this report a prototype of an accident management support system is presented. The support system integrates several concepts from accident management research, like safety objective trees, severe accident phenomena, calculation models and an emergency response data system. These concepts are provided by the prototype in such a way that the decision making process of accident management is supported. The prototype application is demonstrated by process data taken from a severe accident scenario for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) that was simulated with the thermohydraulic computer program MAAP. The prototype was derived from a decision support framework based on a decision theory. For established and innovative concepts from accident management research it is pointed out in which way these concepts can support accident management and how these concepts can be integrated. This approach is generic in two ways; it applies to both pressurized and boiling water reactors and it applies to both in vessel management and containment and release management. The prototype application was developed in Multimedia Toolbox 3.0 and requires at least a 386 PC with 4 MB memory, 6 MB free disk space and MS Windows 3.1. (orig.).

Decision support system for containment and release management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oosterhuis, B.

1995-09-01

The Containment and Release Management project was carried out within the Reinforced Concerted Action Programme for Accident Management Support and partly financed by the European Union. In this report a prototype of an accident management support system is presented. The support system integrates several concepts from accident management research, like safety objective trees, severe accident phenomena, calculation models and an emergency response data system. These concepts are provided by the prototype in such a way that the decision making process of accident management is supported. The prototype application is demonstrated by process data taken from a severe accident scenario for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) that was simulated with the thermohydraulic computer program MAAP. The prototype was derived from a decision support framework based on a decision theory. For established and innovative concepts from accident management research it is pointed out in which way these concepts can support accident management and how these concepts can be integrated. This approach is generic in two ways; it applies to both pressurized and boiling water reactors and it applies to both in vessel management and containment and release management. The prototype application was developed in Multimedia Toolbox 3.0 and requires at least a 386 PC with 4 MB memory, 6 MB free disk space and MS Windows 3.1. (orig.)

Putting integrated reservoir characterization into practice - in house training

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, F.M. Jr.; Best, D.A.; Clarke, R.T. [Mobile Exploration and Producing Technical Center, Dallas, TX (United States)

1997-08-01

The need for even more efficient reservoir characterization and management has forced a change in the way Mobil Oil provides technical support to its production operations. We`ve learned that to be successful, a good understanding of the reservoir is essential. This includes an understanding of the technical and business significance of reservoir heterogeneities at different stages of field development. A multi-disciplinary understanding of the business of integrated reservoir characterization is essential and to facilitate this understanding, Mobil has developed a highly successful {open_quotes}Reservoir Characterization Field Seminar{close_quotes}. Through specific team based case studies that incorporate outcrop examples and data the program provides participants the opportunity to explore historic and alternative approaches to reservoir description, characterization and management. We explore appropriate levels and timing of data gathering, technology applications, risk assessment and management practices at different stages of field development. The case studies presented throughout the course are a unique element of the program which combine real life and hypothetical problem sets that explore how different technical disciplines interact, the approaches to a problem solving they use, the assumptions and uncertainties contained in their contributions and the impact those conclusions may have on other disciplines involved in the overall reservoir management process. The team building aspect of the course was an added bonus.

A Customized Drought Decision Support Tool for Hsinchu Science Park

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jung; Tien, Yu-Chuan; Lin, Hsuan-Te; Liu, Tzu-Ming; Tung, Ching-Pin

2016-04-01

Climate change creates more challenges for water resources management. Due to the lack of sufficient precipitation in Taiwan in fall of 2014, many cities and counties suffered from water shortage during early 2015. Many companies in Hsinchu Science Park were significantly influenced and realized that they need a decision support tool to help them managing water resources. Therefore, a customized computer program was developed, which is capable of predicting the future status of public water supply system and water storage of factories when the water rationing is announced by the government. This program presented in this study for drought decision support (DDSS) is a customized model for a semiconductor company in the Hsinchu Science Park. The DDSS is programmed in Java which is a platform-independent language. System requirements are any PC with the operating system above Windows XP and an installed Java SE Runtime Environment 7. The DDSS serves two main functions. First function is to predict the future storage of Baoshan Reservoir and Second Baoshan Reservoir, so to determine the time point of water use restriction in Hsinchu Science Park. Second function is to use the results to help the company to make decisions to trigger their response plans. The DDSS can conduct real-time scenario simulations calculating the possible storage of water tank for each factory with pre-implementation and post-implementation of those response plans. In addition, DDSS can create reports in Excel to help decision makers to compare results between different scenarios.

Assessing water reservoirs management and development in Northern Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Castelletti

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In many developing countries water is a key renewable resource to complement carbon-emitting energy production and support food security in the face of demand pressure from fast-growing industrial production and urbanization. To cope with undergoing changes, water resources development and management have to be reconsidered by enlarging their scope across sectors and adopting effective tools to analyze current and projected infrastructure potential and operation strategies. In this paper we use multi-objective deterministic and stochastic optimization to assess the current reservoir operation and planned capacity expansion in the Red River Basin (Northern Vietnam, and to evaluate the potential improvement by the adoption of a more sophisticated information system. To reach this goal we analyze the historical operation of the major controllable infrastructure in the basin, the HoaBinh reservoir on the Da River, explore re-operation options corresponding to different tradeoffs among the three main objectives (hydropower production, flood control and water supply, using multi-objective optimization techniques, namely Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm. Finally, we assess the structural system potential and the need for capacity expansion by application of Deterministic Dynamic Programming. Results show that the current operation can only be relatively improved by advanced optimization techniques, while investment should be put into enlarging the system storage capacity and exploiting additional information to inform the operation.

Online decision support system for surface irrigation management

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenchao; Cui, Yuanlai

2017-04-01

Irrigation has played an important role in agricultural production. Irrigation decision support system is developed for irrigation water management, which can raise irrigation efficiency with few added engineering services. An online irrigation decision support system (OIDSS), in consist of in-field sensors and central computer system, is designed for surface irrigation management in large irrigation district. Many functions have acquired in OIDSS, such as data acquisition and detection, real-time irrigation forecast, water allocation decision and irrigation information management. The OIDSS contains four parts: Data acquisition terminals, Web server, Client browser and Communication system. Data acquisition terminals are designed to measure paddy water level, soil water content in dry land, ponds water level, underground water level, and canals water level. A web server is responsible for collecting meteorological data, weather forecast data, the real-time field data, and manager's feedback data. Water allocation decisions are made in the web server. Client browser is responsible for friendly displaying, interacting with managers, and collecting managers' irrigation intention. Communication system includes internet and the GPRS network used by monitoring stations. The OIDSS's model is based on water balance approach for both lowland paddy and upland crops. Considering basic database of different crops water demands in the whole growth stages and irrigation system engineering information, the OIDSS can make efficient decision of water allocation with the help of real-time field water detection and weather forecast. This system uses technical methods to reduce requirements of user's specialized knowledge and can also take user's managerial experience into account. As the system is developed by the Browser/Server model, it is possible to make full use of the internet resources, to facilitate users at any place where internet exists. The OIDSS has been applied in

From axiomatics of quantum probability to modelling geological uncertainty and management of intelligent hydrocarbon reservoirs with the theory of open quantum systems

Science.gov (United States)

Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia

2018-04-01

As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper, we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E. The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. `explore or not?'; `open new well or not?'; `contaminated by water or not?'; `double or triple porosity medium?') is modelled by using the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism). This article is part of the theme issue `Hilbert's sixth problem'.

From axiomatics of quantum probability to modelling geological uncertainty and management of intelligent hydrocarbon reservoirs with the theory of open quantum systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Lozada Aguilar, Miguel Ángel; Khrennikov, Andrei; Oleschko, Klaudia

2018-04-28

As was recently shown by the authors, quantum probability theory can be used for the modelling of the process of decision-making (e.g. probabilistic risk analysis) for macroscopic geophysical structures such as hydrocarbon reservoirs. This approach can be considered as a geophysical realization of Hilbert's programme on axiomatization of statistical models in physics (the famous sixth Hilbert problem). In this conceptual paper , we continue development of this approach to decision-making under uncertainty which is generated by complexity, variability, heterogeneity, anisotropy, as well as the restrictions to accessibility of subsurface structures. The belief state of a geological expert about the potential of exploring a hydrocarbon reservoir is continuously updated by outputs of measurements, and selection of mathematical models and scales of numerical simulation. These outputs can be treated as signals from the information environment E The dynamics of the belief state can be modelled with the aid of the theory of open quantum systems: a quantum state (representing uncertainty in beliefs) is dynamically modified through coupling with E ; stabilization to a steady state determines a decision strategy. In this paper, the process of decision-making about hydrocarbon reservoirs (e.g. 'explore or not?'; 'open new well or not?'; 'contaminated by water or not?'; 'double or triple porosity medium?') is modelled by using the Gorini-Kossakowski-Sudarshan-Lindblad equation. In our model, this equation describes the evolution of experts' predictions about a geophysical structure. We proceed with the information approach to quantum theory and the subjective interpretation of quantum probabilities (due to quantum Bayesianism).This article is part of the theme issue 'Hilbert's sixth problem'. © 2018 The Author(s).

Using structured decision making to manage disease risk for Montana wildlife

Science.gov (United States)

Mitchell, Michael S.; Gude, Justin A.; Anderson, Neil J.; Ramsey, Jennifer M.; Thompson, Michael J.; Sullivan, Mark G.; Edwards, Victoria L.; Gower, Claire N.; Cochrane, Jean Fitts; Irwin, Elise R.; Walshe, Terry

2013-01-01

We used structured decision-making to develop a 2-part framework to assist managers in the proactive management of disease outbreaks in Montana, USA. The first part of the framework is a model to estimate the probability of disease outbreak given field observations available to managers. The second part of the framework is decision analysis that evaluates likely outcomes of management alternatives based on the estimated probability of disease outbreak, and applies managers' values for different objectives to indicate a preferred management strategy. We used pneumonia in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) as a case study for our approach, applying it to 2 populations in Montana that differed in their likelihood of a pneumonia outbreak. The framework provided credible predictions of both probability of disease outbreaks, as well as biological and monetary consequences of management actions. The structured decision-making approach to this problem was valuable for defining the challenges of disease management in a decentralized agency where decisions are generally made at the local level in cooperation with stakeholders. Our approach provides local managers with the ability to tailor management planning for disease outbreaks to local conditions. Further work is needed to refine our disease risk models and decision analysis, including robust prediction of disease outbreaks and improved assessment of management alternatives.

Uncertainties in reservoir performance forecasts; Estimativa de incertezas na previsao de desempenho de reservatorios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loschiavo, Roberto

1999-07-01

Project economic evaluation as well as facilities design for oil exploration is, in general based on production forecast. Since production forecast depends on several parameters that are not completely known, one should take a probabilistic approach for reservoir modeling and numerical flow simulation. In this work, we propose a procedure to estimate probabilistic production forecast profiles based on the decision tree technique. The most influencing parameters of a reservoir model are identified identified and combined to generate a number of realizations of the reservoirs. The combination of each branch of the decision tree defines the probability associated to each reservoir model. A computer program was developed to automatically generate the reservoir models, submit them to the numerical simulator, and process the results. Parallel computing was used to improve the performance of the procedure. (author)

Project Manager Performance and the Decision to Backsource the Project Management Office

Science.gov (United States)

Lively, William R.

2014-01-01

This paper reviews a management decision of an Information Technology Outsource (ITO) provider to backshore the management oversight of its Project Management Office (PMO) after only one year of offshore operations. Governance is a term used in project management to refer to management oversight. The review is a quantitative analysis of existing…

Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - Assessing trade-offs from reservoir operation and irrigation investments in Kenya's Tana Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Hurford, A. P.; Harou, J. J.

2014-08-01

Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing allocations is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks firstly to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly, it seeks to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of proposed new rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To approximate the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management simulation model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume-dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for eight objectives covering the provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services. Trade-off plots allow decision-makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets and irrigation investment options by visualising their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against the disturbance of ecosystems and local livelihoods that depend on them. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to come at a high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of "water-energy-food nexus" resource security issues.

Balancing ecosystem services with energy and food security - assessing trade-offs for reservoir operation and irrigation investment in Kenya's Tana basin

Science.gov (United States)

Hurford, A. P.; Harou, J. J.

2014-01-01

Competition for water between key economic sectors and the environment means agreeing on allocation is challenging. Managing releases from the three major dams in Kenya's Tana River basin with its 4.4 million inhabitants, 567 MW of installed hydropower capacity, 33 000 ha of irrigation and ecologically important wetlands and forests is a pertinent example. This research seeks to identify and help decision-makers visualise reservoir management strategies which result in the best possible (Pareto-optimal) allocation of benefits between sectors. Secondly we seek to show how trade-offs between achievable benefits shift with the implementation of new proposed rice, cotton and biofuel irrigation projects. To identify the Pareto-optimal trade-offs we link a water resources management model to a multi-criteria search algorithm. The decisions or "levers" of the management problem are volume dependent release rules for the three major dams and extent of investment in new irrigation schemes. These decisions are optimised for objectives covering provision of water supply and irrigation, energy generation and maintenance of ecosystem services which underpin tourism and local livelihoods. Visual analytic plots allow decision makers to assess multi-reservoir rule-sets by understanding their impacts on different beneficiaries. Results quantify how economic gains from proposed irrigation schemes trade-off against disturbance of the flow regime which supports ecosystem services. Full implementation of the proposed schemes is shown to be Pareto-optimal, but at high environmental and social cost. The clarity and comprehensiveness of "best-case" trade-off analysis is a useful vantage point from which to tackle the interdependence and complexity of water-energy-food "nexus" challenges.

Efficient operation of a multi-purpose reservoir in Chile: Tradeoffs between irrigation and hydropower production

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez Cabrera, J. M., Sr.; Olivares, M. A.

2015-12-01

This study proposes a method to develop efficient operational policies for a reservoir the southern Chile. The main water uses in this system are hydropower and irrigation, with conflicting seasonal demands. The conflict between these two uses is currently managed through a so-called "irrigation agreement" which defines a series of operational conditions on the reservoir by restricting volumes used for power production depending on reservoir storage level. Other than that, the reservoir operation is driven by cost-minimization over the power grid. Recent evidence shows an increasing degree of conflict in this basin, which suggests that the static approach of irrigation agreements, might no longer be appropriate. Moreover, this agreement could be revised in light of decreased water availability. This problem poses a challenge related to the spatial scope of analysis. Thus, irrigation benefits are driven by decisions made within the basin, whereas hydropower benefits depend on the operation of the entire power grid. Exploring the tradeoffs between these two water uses involves modeling both scales. The proposed methodology integrates information from both a grid-wide power operations model and a basin-wide agro-economic model into a decision model for optimal reservoir operation. The first model, a hydrothermal coordination tool, schedules power production by each plant in the grid, and allows capturing technical and economic aspects to the operation of hydropower reservoirs. The agro-economic model incorporates economic features of irrigation in the basin, and allows obtaining irrigation water demand functions. Finally, the results of both models are integrated into a single model for optimal reservoir operation considering the tradeoffs between the two uses. The result of the joint operation of water resources, show a flexible coordination of uses, revealing the opportunity cost of irrigation, which it gives the possibility of negotiating transfers of water to

Assembling evidence for identifying reservoirs of infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Viana, Mafalda; Mancy, Rebecca; Biek, Roman; Cleaveland, Sarah; Cross, Paul C; Lloyd-Smith, James O; Haydon, Daniel T

2014-05-01

Many pathogens persist in multihost systems, making the identification of infection reservoirs crucial for devising effective interventions. Here, we present a conceptual framework for classifying patterns of incidence and prevalence, and review recent scientific advances that allow us to study and manage reservoirs simultaneously. We argue that interventions can have a crucial role in enriching our mechanistic understanding of how reservoirs function and should be embedded as quasi-experimental studies in adaptive management frameworks. Single approaches to the study of reservoirs are unlikely to generate conclusive insights whereas the formal integration of data and methodologies, involving interventions, pathogen genetics, and contemporary surveillance techniques, promises to open up new opportunities to advance understanding of complex multihost systems. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Chickamauga reservoir embayment study - 1990

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meinert, D.L.; Butkus, S.R.; McDonough, T.A.

1992-12-01

The objectives of this report are three-fold: (1) assess physical, chemical, and biological conditions in the major embayments of Chickamauga Reservoir; (2) compare water quality and biological conditions of embayments with main river locations; and (3) identify any water quality concerns in the study embayments that may warrant further investigation and/or management actions. Embayments are important areas of reservoirs to be considered when assessments are made to support water quality management plans. In general, embayments, because of their smaller size (water surface areas usually less than 1000 acres), shallower morphometry (average depth usually less than 10 feet), and longer detention times (frequently a month or more), exhibit more extreme responses to pollutant loadings and changes in land use than the main river region of the reservoir. Consequently, embayments are often at greater risk of water quality impairments (e.g. nutrient enrichment, filling and siltation, excessive growths of aquatic plants, algal blooms, low dissolved oxygen concentrations, bacteriological contamination, etc.). Much of the secondary beneficial use of reservoirs occurs in embayments (viz. marinas, recreation areas, parks and beaches, residential development, etc.). Typically embayments comprise less than 20 percent of the surface area of a reservoir, but they often receive 50 percent or more of the water-oriented recreational use of the reservoir. This intensive recreational use creates a potential for adverse use impacts if poor water quality and aquatic conditions exist in an embayment.

Group Decisions in Value Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christiono Utomo

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This research deals with a technique to expedite group decision making during the selection of technical solutions for value management process. Selection of a solution from a set of alternatives is facilitated by evaluating using multicriteria decision making techniques. During the process, every possible solution is rated on criteria of function and cost. Function deals more with quality than with quantity, and cost can be calculated based on the theoretical time value of money. Decision-making techniques based on satisfying games are applied to determine the relative function and cost of solutions and hence their relative value. The functions were determined by function analysis system technique. Analytical hierarchy process was applied to decision making and life-cycle cost analysis were used to calculate cost. Cooperative decision making was shown to consist of identifying agreement options, analyzing, and forming coalitions. The objective was attained using the satisfying game model as a basis for two main preferences. The model will improve the value of decision regarding design. It further emphasizes the importance of performance evaluation in the design process and value analysis. The result of the implementation, when applied to the selection of a building wall system, demonstrates a process of selecting the most valuable technical solution as the best-fit option for all decision makers. This work is relevant to group decision making and negotiation, as it aims to provide a framework to support negotiation in design activity.

Prediction of radionuclide migration in the Pripyat river and Dnieper reservoirs and decision support of water protection measures on the basis of mathematical modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morozov, A.A.; Zheleznyak, M.J.; Voitsekhovich, O.; Aliev, K.A.; Bilotkach, U.V.

1997-01-01

Since May 1986 in Kiev in the Institute of Mathematical Machines and System Problems, Cybernetics Center of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has been started the development of the computerised system for processing of Dniper basin radiological monitoring data and modelling of radionuclide dispersion in rivers and reservoirs. For this work it was established the Interdisciplinary Working Group that joints the specialists from the State Committee of Water Resources, State Committee of Hydrometeorology, National Academy of Sciences and other Ukrainian institutions. The objectives of the computerized system development were formulated by the State Emergency Commission and later by the Ukrainian Minchernobyl as follows: reliable evaluation of the surface water contamination at Pripyat River and Dnieper River on the basis of monitoring data from the different institutions; seasonal and long-term prediction of the surface water radioactive contamination; decision support for the aquatic post-accidental countermeasures, directed to diminish the radionuclides fluxes from the Chernobyl area through the Pripyat River and Dnieper Reservoirs; decision support for the countermeasures directed on changes in the water assumption

Application UPTASK project management platform to support management decisions in I.T.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lagerev D.G.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Project planning and management accounting of all factors, in terms of multitasking and spontaneity of project man-agement, the task is very voluminous and complex, especially in isolation from the methodological and instrumentation. Calculation of indicators and statistical metrics, and strategies, the decision maker may be biased or incorrect character, and one can’t exclude the human factor. In such a perspective, it was decided to automate the process of statistical anal-ysis and probabilistic forecasting to help the decision-maker, as much as the right choice of strategic and project plan-ning. The problem is solved by means of the development of the project management system for the companies of the areas of information technology. One of the most important features of the development of a module statistical and probabilistic analysis based on Bayesian networks. The use of the proposed tool and methodological complex, will pro-vide a high level of optimization of the allocation of time to work processes and will increase the degree of correctness and continuity of decisions taken by the project manager.

Nuclear Waste Management Decision-Making Support with MCDA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Schwenk-Ferrero

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper proposes a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA framework for a comparative evaluation of nuclear waste management strategies taking into account different local perspectives (expert and stakeholder opinions. Of note, a novel approach is taken using a multiple-criteria formulation that is methodologically adapted to tackle various conflicting criteria and a large number of expert/stakeholder groups involved in the decision-making process. The purpose is to develop a framework and to show its application to qualitative comparison and ranking of options in a hypothetical case of three waste management alternatives: interim storage at and/or away from the reactor site for the next 100 years, interim decay storage followed in midterm by disposal in a national repository, and disposal in a multinational repository. Additionally, major aspects of a decision-making aid are identified and discussed in separate paper sections dedicated to application context, decision supporting process, in particular problem structuring, objective hierarchy, performance evaluation modeling, sensitivity/robustness analyses, and interpretation of results (practical impact. The aim of the paper is to demonstrate the application of the MCDA framework developed to a generic hypothetical case and indicate how MCDA could support a decision on nuclear waste management policies in a “small” newcomer country embarking on nuclear technology in the future.

Financial statements in the function of management decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mrvaljević Mirjana

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper discuss on the role and importance of information which are provided by financial statements in business decision-making is considered. Basically, financial reports represent information basis for making economic / financial decisions for a wide range of users because they represent the key source of information about the financial position of a company at the end of a period, about the achieved results of the company for the period, about the cash flow within the company etc. In accordance with the process of globalisation, international frameworks have regulated the accounting standards which have been created and introduced in order to achieve transparency and uniformity of financial reports of any company, regardless its scope of work and the country where it does its business. The management of a company is aimed at the perception of future events and the flow of values within a company as a result of present decisions, while the accounting is ex post oriented. Nevertheless, the connections between accounting and management of a company are important and multiple because it is the effects of management decisions that are evaluated through financial statements, which are the product of company accounting in which all the business decisions are processed.

Developing a decision support system to meet nurse managers' information needs for effective resource management.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruland, C M

2001-01-01

This article describes the development of a decision support system called CLASSICA, which assists nurse managers in financial management, resource allocation, activity planning, and quality control. CLASSICA integrates information about patient flow and activity, staffing, and the cost of nursing care at the nursing-unit level. The system provides assistance in planning activities, balancing the budget, and identifying barriers to unsatisfactory resource management. In addition, CLASSICA contains forecasting and simulation options to analyze the influence of factors that affect nursing costs. This article describes the system's development process steps to tailor it to the needs of nurse managers and their existing work practices. Nurse managers actively participated in defining their tasks and responsibilities; identified barriers and difficulties in managing these tasks; defined information needs, data input, and output and interface requirements; and identified expected benefits. Clear communication of project goals, strong user involvement, and purposeful benefit planning was used to achieve the goals for CLASSICA: (1) to provide essential information and decision support for effective financial management, resource allocation, activity planning, and staffing; (2) to improve nurse managers' competence in financial management and decision making; (3) to improve cost containment; and (4) to provide a helpful and easy to use tool for decision support.

Creative Accounting and Impact on Management Decision Making

OpenAIRE

Sunday O. Effiok; Okon E. Eton

2012-01-01

The study was conducted to appraise the impact of creative accounting on management decisions of selected companies listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange. With the background, the main objective of the study includes the examination of the extent to which macro-manipulation of financial statement affects management decisions; to examine the extent to which macro-manipulation of financial statement affects share price performance; and to determine the impact of misreported assets and liabiliti...

Estimation of Bank Erosion Due To Reservoir Operation in Cascade (Case Study: Citarum Cascade Reservoir

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sri Legowo

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Sedimentation is such a crucial issue to be noted once the accumulated sediment begins to fill the reservoir dead storage, this will then influence the long-term reservoir operation. The sediment accumulated requires a serious attention for it may influence the storage capacity and other reservoir management of activities. The continuous inflow of sediment to the reservoir will decrease the capacity of reservoir storage, the reservoir value in use, and the useful age of reservoir. Because of that, the rate of the sediment needs to be delayed as possible. In this research, the delay of the sediment rate is considered based on the rate of flow of landslide of the reservoir slope. The rate of flow of the sliding slope can be minimized by way of each reservoir autonomous efforts. This effort can be performed through; the regulation of fluctuating rate of reservoir surface current that does not cause suddenly drawdown and upraising as well. The research model is compiled using the searching technique of Non Linear Programming (NLP.The rate of bank erosion for the reservoir variates from 0.0009 to 0.0048 MCM/year, which is no sigrificant value to threaten the life time of reservoir.Mean while the rate of watershed sediment has a significant value, i.e: 3,02 MCM/year for Saguling that causes to fullfill the storage capacity in 40 next years (from years 2008.

Decision-making methodology for management of hazardous waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Philbin, J.S.; Cranwell, R.M.

1988-01-01

A decision-making methodology is presented that combines systems and risk analysis techniques to evaluate hazardous waste management practices associated with DOE weapon production operations. The methodology provides a systematic approach to examining waste generation and waste handling practices in addition to the more visible disposal practices. Release-exposure scenarios for hazardous waste operations are identified and operational risk is determined. Comparisons may be made between existing and alternative waste management practices (and processes) on the basis of overall risk, cost and compliance with regulations. Managers can use this methodology to make and defend resource allocation decisions and to prioritize research needs

Exploring How Changing Monsoonal Dynamics and Human Pressures Challenge Multi-Reservoir Management of Food-Energy-Water Tradeoffs

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn, J.; Reed, P. M.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Oyler, J.; Nicholas, R.

2017-12-01

Multi-reservoir systems require robust and adaptive control policies capable of managing evolving hydroclimatic variability and human demands across a wide range of time scales. This is especially true for systems with high intra-annual and inter-annual variability, such as monsoonal river systems that need to buffer against seasonal droughts while also managing extreme floods. Moreover, the timing, intensity, duration, and frequency of these hydrologic extremes may be affected by deeply uncertain changes in socioeconomic and climatic pressures. This study contributes an innovative method for exploring how possible changes in the timing and magnitude of monsoonal seasonal extremes impact the robustness of reservoir operating policies optimized to historical conditions assuming stationarity. We illustrate this analysis on the Red River basin in Vietnam, where reservoirs and dams serve as important sources of hydropower production, irrigable water supply, and flood protection for the capital city of Hanoi. Applying our scenario discovery approach, we find food-energy-water tradeoffs are exacerbated by potential hydrologic shifts, with wetter worlds threatening the ability of operating strategies to manage flood risk and drier worlds threatening their ability to provide sufficient water supply and hydropower production, especially if demands increase. Most notably, though, amplification of the within-year monsoonal cycle and increased inter-annual variability threaten all of the above. These findings highlight the importance of considering changes in both lower order moments of annual streamflow and intra-annual monsoonal behavior when evaluating the robustness of alternative water systems control strategies for managing deeply uncertain futures.

Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

2009-01-01

Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

Building Adjustable Pre-storm Reservoir Flood-control Release Rules

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shun-Nien; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Hsieh, Cheng-Daw

2017-04-01

Typhoons hit Taiwan several times every year, which could cause serious flood disasters. Because mountainous terrains and steep landforms can rapidly accelerate the speed of flood flow during typhoon events, rivers cannot be a stable source of water supply. Reservoirs become the most effective floodwater storage facilities for alleviating flood damages in Taiwan. The pre-storm flood-control release can significantly increase reservoir storage capacity available to store floodwaters for reducing downstream flood damage, while the uncertainties of total forecasted rainfalls are very high in different stages of an oncoming typhoon, which may cause the risk of water shortage in the future. This study proposes adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules in three designed operating stages with various hydrological conditions in the Feitsui Reservoir, a pivot reservoir for water supply to Taipei metropolitan in Taiwan, not only to reduce the risk of reservoir flood control and downstream flooding but also to consider water supply. The three operating stages before an oncoming typhoon are defined upon the timings when: (1) typhoon news is issued (3-7days before typhoon hit); (2) the sea warning is issued (2-4 days before typhoon hit); and (3) the land warning is issued (1-2 days before typhoon hit). We simulate 95 historical typhoon events with 3000 initial water levels and build some pre-storm flood-control release rules to adjust the amount of pre-release based on the total forecasted rainfalls at different operating stages. A great number of simulations (68.4 millions) are conducted to extract their major consequences and then build the adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules. Accordingly, given a total forecasted rainfall and a water level, reservoir decision makers can easily identify the corresponding rule to tell the amount of pre-release in any stage. The results show that the proposed adjustable pre-release rules can effectively

Restoring Natural Streamflow Variability by Modifying Multi-purpose Reservoir Operation

Science.gov (United States)

Shiau, J.

2010-12-01

Multi-purpose reservoirs typically provide benefits of water supply, hydroelectric power, and flood mitigation. Hydroelectric power generations generally do not consume water. However, temporal distribution of downstream flows is highly changed due to hydro-peaking effects. Associated with offstream diversion of water supplies for municipal, industrial, and agricultural requirements, natural streamflow characteristics of magnitude, duration, frequency, timing, and rate of change is significantly altered by multi-purpose reservoir operation. Natural flow regime has long been recognized a master factor for ecosystem health and biodiversity. Restoration of altered flow regime caused by multi-purpose reservoir operation is the main objective of this study. This study presents an optimization framework that modifying reservoir operation to seeking balance between human and environmental needs. The methodology presented in this study is applied to the Feitsui Reservoir, located in northern Taiwan, with main purpose of providing stable water-supply and auxiliary purpose of electricity generation and flood-peak attenuation. Reservoir releases are dominated by two decision variables, i.e., duration of water releases for each day and percentage of daily required releases within the duration. The current releasing policy of the Feitsui Reservoir releases water for water-supply and hydropower purposes during 8:00 am to 16:00 pm each day and no environmental flows releases. Although greater power generation is obtained by 100% releases distributed within 8-hour period, severe temporal alteration of streamflow is observed downstream of the reservoir. Modifying reservoir operation by relaxing these two variables and reserve certain ratio of streamflow as environmental flow to maintain downstream natural variability. The optimal reservoir releasing policy is searched by the multi-criterion decision making technique for considering reservoir performance in terms of shortage ratio

A framework for assessing hydrogen management strategies involving multiple decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, S.D.; Suh, K.Y.; Park, G.C.; Jae, M.

2000-01-01

An accident management framework consisting of multiple and sequential decisions is developed and applied to a hydrogen control strategy for a reference plant. The compact influence diagrams including multiple decisions are constructed and evaluated with MAAP4 calculations. Each decision variable, represented by a node in the influence diagrams, has an uncertainty distribution. Using the values from the IPE (Individual Plant Examinations) report for the reference plant (UCN 3 and 4), the hydrogen control and accident management strategies are assessed. In this paper, a problem with two decisions is modeled for a simple illustration of the process involved. One decision is whether or not to actuate igniters at the time of core uncovery. Another decision is whether or not to turn on the containment sprays. We chose a small-break loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) sequence, which was one of the dominant accident sequences in the reference plant. The framework involves the modeling of the decision problem by using decision-making tools, data analysis, and the MAAP4 calculations. It is shown that the proposed framework with a new measure for assessing hydrogen control is flexible enough to be applied to various accident management strategies. (author)

Sudden water pollution accidents and reservoir emergency operations: impact analysis at Danjiangkou Reservoir.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Hezhen; Lei, Xiaohui; Shang, Yizi; Duan, Yang; Kong, Lingzhong; Jiang, Yunzhong; Wang, Hao

2018-03-01

Danjiangkou Reservoir is the source reservoir of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (MRP). Any sudden water pollution accident in the reservoir would threaten the water supply of the MRP. We established a 3-D hydrodynamic and water quality model for the Danjiangkou Reservoir, and proposed scientific suggestions on the prevention and emergency management for sudden water pollution accidents based on simulated results. Simulations were performed on 20 hypothetical pollutant discharge locations and 3 assumed amounts, in order to model the effect of pollutant spreading under different reservoir operation types. The results showed that both the location and mass of pollution affected water quality; however, different reservoir operation types had little effect. Five joint regulation scenarios, which altered the hydrodynamic processes of water conveyance for the Danjiangkou and Taocha dams, were considered for controlling pollution dispersion. The results showed that the spread of a pollutant could be effectively controlled through the joint regulation of the two dams and that the collaborative operation of the Danjiangkou and Taocha dams is critical for ensuring the security of water quality along the MRP.

The role of information systems in management decision making-an theoretical approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

PhD. Associate Professor Department of Management & Informatics Mihane Berisha-Namani

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In modern conditions of globalisation and development of information technology, information processing activities have come to be seen as essential to successful of businesses and organizations. Information has become essential to make decisions and crucial asset in organisations, whereas information systems is technology required for information processing. The application of information systems technology in business and organisations has opened up new possibilities for running and managing organisations, as well as has improved management decision making. The purpose of this paper is to give an understanding of the role that information systems have in management decision making and to discuss the possibilities how managers of organisations can make best use of information systems. The paper starts with identifying the functions of management and managerial roles and continue with information systems usage in three levels of decision making. It specifically addresses the way how information systems can help managers reduce uncertainty in decision making and includes some important implications of information systems usage for managers. Thus, this study provide a framework of effective use of information systems generally and offers an alternative approach to investigate the impact that information systems technology have in management decision making specifically

Intelligent Model Management in a Forest Ecosystem Management Decision Support System

Science.gov (United States)

Donald Nute; Walter D. Potter; Frederick Maier; Jin Wang; Mark Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Peter Knopp; Scott Thomasma; Mayukh Dass; Hajime Uchiyama

2002-01-01

Decision making for forest ecosystem management can include the use of a wide variety of modeling tools. These tools include vegetation growth models, wildlife models, silvicultural models, GIS, and visualization tools. NED-2 is a robust, intelligent, goal-driven decision support system that integrates tools in each of these categories. NED-2 uses a blackboard...

Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karmperis, Athanasios C.; Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed

Decision support models for solid waste management: Review and game-theoretic approaches

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karmperis, Athanasios C., E-mail: athkarmp@mail.ntua.gr [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece); Army Corps of Engineers, Hellenic Army General Staff, Ministry of Defence (Greece); Aravossis, Konstantinos; Tatsiopoulos, Ilias P.; Sotirchos, Anastasios [Sector of Industrial Management and Operational Research, School of Mechanical Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Iroon Polytechniou 9, 15780 Athens (Greece)

2013-05-15

Highlights: ► The mainly used decision support frameworks for solid waste management are reviewed. ► The LCA, CBA and MCDM models are presented and their strengths, weaknesses, similarities and possible combinations are analyzed. ► The game-theoretic approach in a solid waste management context is presented. ► The waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework. ► Cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches to decision support for solid waste management are discussed. - Abstract: This paper surveys decision support models that are commonly used in the solid waste management area. Most models are mainly developed within three decision support frameworks, which are the life-cycle assessment, the cost–benefit analysis and the multi-criteria decision-making. These frameworks are reviewed and their strengths and weaknesses as well as their critical issues are analyzed, while their possible combinations and extensions are also discussed. Furthermore, the paper presents how cooperative and non-cooperative game-theoretic approaches can be used for the purpose of modeling and analyzing decision-making in situations with multiple stakeholders. Specifically, since a waste management model is sustainable when considering not only environmental and economic but also social aspects, the waste management bargaining game is introduced as a specific decision support framework in which future models can be developed.

Reservoir Management using seasonal forecasts in Lake Kariba and Lake Kahora Bassa: Initial results and plans

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Muchuru, S

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Seasonal forecasting as a tool to improve on reservoir management in Zimbabwe is presented. The focus of the talk is on predicting rainfall extremes over the Lake Kariba catchments. The forecast systems to do the predictions and the levels of skill...

Reservoir site evaluation through routing | Ogunlela | Journal of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... m3/s, and a relative attenuation of 41.10%. Also; the reservoir would not be overtopped since the 99.54 m water elevation for the 25-yr, 24-hr storm was below the reservoir embankment top elevation. Keywords:Reservoir routing. Journal of Modeling, Design and Management of Engineering Systems Vol. 3 (1) 2005: pp.

Research on Group Decision-Making Mechanism of Internet Emergency Management

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Kefan; Chen, Gang; Qian, Wu; Shi, Zhao

With the development of information technology, internet has become a popular term and internet emergency has an intensive influence on people's life. This article offers a short history of internet emergency management. It discusses the definition, characteristics, and factor of internet emergency management. A group decision-making mechanism of internet emergency is presented based on the discussion. The authors establish a so-called Rough Set Scenario Flow Graphs (RSSFG) of group decision-making mechanism of internet emergency management and make an empirical analysis based on the RSSFG approach. The experimental results confirm that this approach is effective in internet emergency decision-making.

Guidance Tools for Use in Nuclear Material Management Decisions Making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Johnson, G. V.; Baker, D. J.; Sorenson, K. B.; Boeke, S. G.

2002-02-26

This paper describes the results of Recommendation 14 of the Integrated Nuclear Materials Management Plan (INMMP) which was the product of a management initiative at the highest levels of the Department of Energy responding to a congressional directive to accelerate the work of achieving integration and cutting long-term costs associated with the management of nuclear materials, with the principal focus on excess materials. The INMMP provided direction to ''Develop policy-level decision support tools to support long-term planning and decision making.'' To accomplish this goal a team from the Savannah River Site, Sandia National Laboratories, Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL), and the U.S. Department of Energy experienced in the decision-making process developed a Guidebook to Decision-Making Methods. The goal of the team organized to implement Recommendation 14 was to instill transparency, consistency, rigor, and discipline in the DOE decision process. The guidebook introduces a process and a selection of proven methods for disciplined decision-making so that the results are clearer, more transparent, and easier for reviewers to understand and accept. It was written to set a standard for a consistent decision process.

Three dimensional heat transport modeling in Vossoroca reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Arcie Polli, Bruna; Yoshioka Bernardo, Julio Werner; Hilgert, Stephan; Bleninger, Tobias

2017-04-01

Freshwater reservoirs are used for many purposes as hydropower generation, water supply and irrigation. In Brazil, according to the National Energy Balance of 2013, hydropower energy corresponds to 70.1% of the Brazilian demand. Superficial waters (which include rivers, lakes and reservoirs) are the most used source for drinking water supply - 56% of the municipalities use superficial waters as a source of water. The last two years have shown that the Brazilian water and electricity supply is highly vulnerable and that improved management is urgently needed. The construction of reservoirs affects physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the water body, e.g. stratification, temperature, residence time and turbulence reduction. Some water quality issues related to reservoirs are eutrophication, greenhouse gas emission to the atmosphere and dissolved oxygen depletion in the hypolimnion. The understanding of the physical processes in the water body is fundamental to reservoir management. Lakes and reservoirs may present a seasonal behavior and stratify due to hydrological and meteorological conditions, and especially its vertical distribution may be related to water quality. Stratification can control heat and dissolved substances transport. It has been also reported the importance of horizontal temperature gradients, e.g. inflows and its density and processes of mass transfer from shallow to deeper regions of the reservoir, that also may impact water quality. Three dimensional modeling of the heat transport in lakes and reservoirs is an important tool to the understanding and management of these systems. It is possible to estimate periods of large vertical temperature gradients, inhibiting vertical transport and horizontal gradients, which could be responsible for horizontal transport of heat and substances (e.g. differential cooling or inflows). Vossoroca reservoir was constructed in 1949 by the impoundment of São João River and is located near to

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byron K Williams

Full Text Available Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both. There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

Chinese business managers' moral decision-making

OpenAIRE

LIN, NASA

2011-01-01

The topic of this thesis is about moral decision-making, and the main objective of this study is to research the moral decision-making of Chinese business managers based on the analysis of data. The study adopts systematic literature of qualitative research method and is constructed by means of qualitative analysis of 64 data articles. The 64 data articles are the journals from the Database of Chinese Academic Journals, Journal of Business Ethics and other leading business journals from the y...

Decision Aids for Multiple-Decision Disease Management as Affected by Weather Input Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Many disease management decision support systems (DSS) rely, exclusively or in part, on weather inputs to calculate an indicator for disease hazard. Error in the weather inputs, typically due to forecasting, interpolation or estimation from off-site sources, may affect model calculations and manage...

Oil Reservoir Production Optimization using Optimal Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Völcker, Carsten; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

2011-01-01

Practical oil reservoir management involves solution of large-scale constrained optimal control problems. In this paper we present a numerical method for solution of large-scale constrained optimal control problems. The method is a single-shooting method that computes the gradients using the adjo...... reservoir using water ooding and smart well technology. Compared to the uncontrolled case, the optimal operation increases the Net Present Value of the oil field by 10%.......Practical oil reservoir management involves solution of large-scale constrained optimal control problems. In this paper we present a numerical method for solution of large-scale constrained optimal control problems. The method is a single-shooting method that computes the gradients using...

Fishery management problems and possibilities on large southeastern reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, John W.

1958-01-01

Principal problems concerning the fisheries of large reservoirs in the Southeast are: inefficient and highly selective exploitation of fish stocks, and protection and reclamation of damaged or threatened fisheries in tailwaters and tributary streams. Seven mainstream reservoirs on which data are available support an average angling pressure of 4.9 trips per acre per year and an average catch of 16 pounds of sport fish and 6 pounds of food fish. Commercial take is 7 pounds per acre. The rate of catch of sport fish, based upon tag returns, is only 3 percent. Sixteen storage reservoirs support an average angling pressure of 5.0 trips per acre per year and an average catch of 13 pounds of sport fish and 1 pound of food fish. Commercial catch is of no significance. Average rate of catch of sport fish is 17 percent of the catchable population. Fish population studies indicate that there are twice as many sport fish and four times as many food fish in mainstream than there are in storage reservoirs.

Williston Reservoir raising - environmental overview

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-07-01

This preliminary environmental overview report was prepared by B.C. Hydro in June 1987 and revised in July 1988 as an initial assessment of a possible 1.5 m (5 ft.) raise in the Williston Reservoir maximum normal level. The enviromental overview study and the associated engineering and property studies were undertaken to provide information for a decision on whether to initiate more detailed studies. Overview studies are based mainly on available reports, mapping and field data, supplemented by limited site reconnaissance and, in this case, input from key agencies and groups. The lack of adequate mapping of areas which could be affected by reservoir raising did not permit definitive conclusion to be reached. This mapping will be done over the next year to complete the overview assessment. This document covers the impact assessment of socio-economic factors, forestry, reservoir clearing, heritage, recreation, aquatic resources, and wilflife. Further studies in each of these areas are also included. 54 refs., 11 figs., 8 tabs.

Integrating Water Quality and River Rehabilitation Management - A Decision-Analytical Perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Reichert, P.; Langhans, S.; Lienert, J.; Schuwirth, N.

2009-04-01

Integrative river management involves difficult decisions about alternative measures to improve their ecological state. For this reason, it seems useful to apply knowledge from the decision sciences to support river management. We discuss how decision-analytical elements can be employed for designing an integrated river management procedure. An important aspect of this procedure is to clearly separate scientific predictions of the consequences of alternatives from objectives to be achieved by river management. The key elements of the suggested procedure are (i) the quantitative elicitation of the objectives from different stakeholder groups, (ii) the compilation of the current scientific knowledge about the consequences of the effects resulting from suggested measures in the form of a probabilistic mathematical model, and (iii) the use of these predictions and valuations to prioritize alternatives, to uncover conflicting objectives, to support the design of better alternatives, and to improve the transparency of communication about the chosen management strategy. The development of this procedure led to insights regarding necessary steps to be taken for rational decision-making in river management, to guidelines about the use of decision-analytical techniques for performing these steps, but also to new insights about the application of decision-analytical techniques in general. In particular, the consideration of the spatial distribution of the effects of measures and the potential added value of connected rehabilitated river reaches leads to favoring measures that have a positive effect beyond a single river reach. As these effects only propagate within the river network, this results in a river basin oriented management concept as a consequence of a rational decision support procedure, rather than as an a priori management paradigm. There are also limitations to the support that can be expected from the decision-analytical perspective. It will not provide the

Review Article: Multi-criteria decision making for flood risk management: a survey of the current state-of-the-art

Science.gov (United States)

de Brito, M. M.; Evers, M.

2015-11-01

This paper provides a review of Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) applications to flood risk management, seeking to highlight trends and identify research gaps. Totally, 128 peer-reviewed papers published from 1995 to June 2015 were systematically analysed and classified into the following application areas: (1) ranking of alternatives for flood mitigation, (2) reservoir flood control, (3) susceptibility, (4) hazard, (5) vulnerability, (6) risk, (7) coping capacity, and (8) emergency management. Additionally, the articles were categorized based on the publication year, MCDM method, whether they were or were not carried out in a participatory process, and if uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were performed. Results showed that the number of flood MCDM publications has exponentially grown during this period, with over 82 % of all papers published since 2009. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) was the most popular technique, followed by Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Simple Additive Weighting (SAW). Although there is greater interest on MCDM, uncertainty analysis remains an issue and is seldom applied in flood-related studies. In addition, participation of multiple stakeholders has been generally fragmented, focusing on particular stages of the decision-making process, especially on the definition of criteria weights. Based on the survey, some suggestions for further investigation are provided.

Assessment of Short Term Flood Operation Strategies Using Numerical Weather Prediction Data in YUVACΙK DAM Reservoir, Turkey

Science.gov (United States)

Uysal, G.; Yavuz, O.; Sensoy, A.; Sorman, A.; Akgun, T.; Gezgin, T.

2011-12-01

Yuvacik Dam Reservoir Basin, located in the Marmara region of Turkey with 248 km2 drainage area, has steep topography, mild and rainy climate thus induces high flood potential with fast flow response, especially to early spring and fall precipitation events. Moreover, the basin provides considerable snowmelt contribution to the streamflow during melt season since the elevation ranges between 80 - 1548 m. The long term strategies are based on supplying annual demand of 142 hm3 water despite a relatively small reservoir capacity of 51 hm3. This situation makes short term release decisions as the challenging task regarding the constrained downstream safe channel capacity especially in times of floods. Providing the demand of 1.5 million populated city of Kocaeli is the highest priority issue in terms of reservoir management but risk optimization is also required due to flood regulation. Although, the spillway capacity is 1560 m3/s, the maximum amount of water to be released is set as 100 m3/s by the regional water authority taking into consideration the downstream channel capacity which passes through industrial region of the city. The reservoir is a controlled one and it is possible to hold back the 15 hm3 additional water by keeping the gates closed. Flood regulation is set to achieve the maximum possible flood attenuation by using the full flood-control zone capacity in the reservoir before making releases in excess of the downstream safe-channel capacity. However, the operators still need to exceed flood regulation zones to take precautions for drought summer periods in order to supply water without any shortage that increases the risk in times of flood. Regarding to this circumstances, a hydrological model integrated reservoir modeling system, is applied to account for the physical behavior of the system. Hence, this reservoir modeling is carried out to analyze both previous decisions and also the future scenarios as a decision support tool for operators. In the

Effective Approach to Elevate the Intelligence of Management Decision System

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

杨保安; 朱明; 唐志杰; 陈思

2003-01-01

Based on the sticking point of the low intelligence of the existing management decision system,this paper puts forward the idea of enriching and refining the knowledge of the system and endowing it with the ability to learn by means of adopting three types of heterogeneous knowledge representation and knowledge management measures.At length,this paper outlines the basic framework of an intelligence system for the sake of management decision problem.

Decision making model and behavior of Iranian top managers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aliakbar Farhangi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Aesthetics relates to felt meaning generated from sensory perceptions, and involves subjective,tacit knowledge rooted in feeling and emotion. We believe the aesthetics of management isimportant, but little understood, aspect of organizational life. We propose that followers use theiraesthetic senses in making these assessments.In this article we try to discover the role of aesthetic in management and then try to find out thestyle of about 130 industrial and governmental top managers in Iran using some technique such asquestionnaire and interview. The personality and character of them will be recognized by some testsuch as KAI, MBIT, CPS, Cooper-Smith self-esteem, management style, machiavellism, internaland external control, behavior, attitude and their methods in problem solving and decision making,and the effect of this ability in productivity of their organization.At the end of this study we find out that they are strongly thinking, judging and intuition but half ofthem are extraversion. their personality & character, attitude, skills, professions, perception are soimportant for management and in making a decision more than Two-thirds:-If they make a decision never change it.-Use their aesthetic to judge others and events or found out the right way if it is rational and there isenough evidence.-Uses his experience and knowledge for decision but asks others to suggest a solution or solve theproblem.

Reservoirs operation and water resources utilization coordination in Hongshuihe basin

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Chonghao; Chi, Kaige; Pang, Bo; Tang, Hongbin

2018-06-01

In the recent decade, the demand for water resources has been increasing with the economic development. The reservoirs of cascade hydropower stations in Hongshuihe basin, which are constructed with a main purpose of power generation, are facing more integrated water resources utilization problem. The conflict between power generation of cascade reservoirs and flood control, shipping, environmental protection and water supply has become increasingly prominent. This paper introduces the general situation and integrated water demand of cascade reservoirs in Hongshuihe basin, and it analyses the impact of various types of integrated water demand on power generation and supply. It establishes mathematic models, constrained by various types of integrated water demand, to guide the operation and water resources utilization management of cascade reservoirs in Hongshuihe basin. Integrated water coordination mechanism of Hongshuihe basin is also introduced. It provides a technical and management guide and demonstration for cascade reservoirs operation and integrated water management at home and abroad.

An analytical framework for extracting hydrological information from time series of small reservoirs in a semi-arid region

Science.gov (United States)

Annor, Frank; van de Giesen, Nick; Bogaard, Thom; Eilander, Dirk

2013-04-01

Small water reservoirs for water resources management have as important socio-economic advantage that they bring water close to villages and households. This proximity allows for many water uses in addition to irrigation, such as fisheries, household water, building materials (loam, reeds), tourism and recreation, and cattle watering. These positive aspects are offset by the relatively large evaporative losses in comparison to larger reservoirs, although, it is not exactly known how large these losses are. For decision makers, investors and donors, the decision to construct a small reservoir should be multifactored; and based on economic, socio-cultural and environmental factors. For the latter, getting the water balance and the energy budget of small reservoirs right is key for any environmental impact analyses. For Northern Ghana, the relation between volume of a small reservoir and its' surface area has been established in a robust equation as: Volume = 0.00857Area1.4367 with the surface area explaining more than 95% of the variation in water volume of the reservoirs. This allows the use of remote sensing observations for estimating water volume of small reservoirs in northern Ghana. Hydrological analyses of time series of small reservoir areas comprises estimates of evaporation fluxes and cumulative surface runoff curves. Once the reservoirs are full, spillage will occur and volumes and surface areas remain stable at their maximum extents. This implies that the time series of reservoir surface area contains information concerning the on-set of downstream surface runoff. This on-set does not coincide with the on-set of the rainy season but largely depends on the distribution of rainfall events and storage capacity in the subsurface. The main requirement for this analysis is that the reservoir has negligible seepage losses or water influx from the underlying subsurface. In our research, we carried out a time series analysis of surface area extent for about 45

Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fikru Fentaw Abera

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Optimal operation of reservoirs is very essential for water resource planning and management, but it is very challenging and complicated when dealing with climate change impacts. The objective of this paper was to assess existing and future hydropower operation at the Tekeze reservoir in the face of climate change. In this study, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was used to model runoff inflow into the Tekeze hydropower reservoir under present and future climate scenarios. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from an ensemble of downscaled climate data based on the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over African domain (CORDEX-Africa with Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Observed and projected inflows to Tekeze hydropower reservoir were used as input to the US Army Corps of Engineer’s Reservoir Evaluation System Perspective Reservoir Model (HEC-ResPRM, a reservoir operation model, to optimize hydropower reservoir release, storage and pool level. Results indicated that climate change has a clear impact on reservoir inflow and showed increase in annual and monthly inflow into the reservoir except in dry months from May to June under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. HEC-ResPRM optimal operation results showed an increase in Tekeze reservoir power storage potential up to 25% and 30% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. This implies that Tekeze hydropower production will be affected by climate change. This analysis can be used by water resources planners and mangers to develop reservoir operation techniques considering climate change impact to increase power production.

Contribution of systematic reviews to management decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Carly N; Possingham, Hugh P; Fuller, Richard A

2013-10-01

Systematic reviews comprehensively summarize evidence about the effectiveness of conservation interventions. We investigated the contribution to management decisions made by this growing body of literature. We identified 43 systematic reviews of conservation evidence, 23 of which drew some concrete conclusions relevant to management. Most reviews addressed conservation interventions relevant to policy decisions; only 35% considered practical on-the-ground management interventions. The majority of reviews covered only a small fraction of the geographic and taxonomic breadth they aimed to address (median = 13% of relevant countries and 16% of relevant taxa). The likelihood that reviews contained at least some implications for management tended to increase as geographic coverage increased and to decline as taxonomic breadth increased. These results suggest the breadth of a systematic review requires careful consideration. Reviews identified a mean of 312 relevant primary studies but excluded 88% of these because of deficiencies in design or a failure to meet other inclusion criteria. Reviews summarized on average 284 data sets and 112 years of research activity, yet the likelihood that their results had at least some implications for management did not increase as the amount of primary research summarized increased. In some cases, conclusions were elusive despite the inclusion of hundreds of data sets and years of cumulative research activity. Systematic reviews are an important part of the conservation decision making tool kit, although we believe the benefits of systematic reviews could be significantly enhanced by increasing the number of reviews focused on questions of direct relevance to on-the-ground managers; defining a more focused geographic and taxonomic breadth that better reflects available data; including a broader range of evidence types; and appraising the cost-effectiveness of interventions. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley

A Multi-criterial Decision Support System for Forest Management

Science.gov (United States)

Donald Nute; Geneho Kim; Walter D. Potter; Mark J. Twery; H. Michael Rauscher; Scott Thomasma; Deborah Bennett; Peter Kollasch

1999-01-01

We describe a research project that has as its goal development of a full-featured decision support system for managing forested land to satisfy multiple criteria represented as timber, wildlife, water, ecological, and wildlife objectives. The decision process proposed for what was originally conceived of as a Northeast Decision Model (NED) includes data acquisition,...

Optimizing withdrawal from drinking water reservoirs to reduce downstream temperature pollution and reservoir hypoxia.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, M; Rinke, K; Hipsey, M R; Boehrer, B

2017-07-15

Sustainable management of drinking water reservoirs requires balancing the demands of water supply whilst minimizing environmental impact. This study numerically simulates the effect of an improved withdrawal scheme designed to alleviate the temperature pollution downstream of a reservoir. The aim was to identify an optimal withdrawal strategy such that water of a desirable discharge temperature can be supplied downstream without leading to unacceptably low oxygen concentrations within the reservoir. First, we calibrated a one-dimensional numerical model for hydrodynamics and oxygen dynamics (GLM-AED2), verifying that the model reproduced water temperatures and hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations accurately over a 5 year period. Second, the model was extended to include an adaptive withdrawal functionality, allowing for a prescribed withdrawal temperature to be found, with the potential constraint of hypolimnetic oxygen concentration. Scenario simulations on epi-/metalimnetic withdrawal demonstrate that the model is able to autonomously determine the best withdrawal height depending on the thermal structure and the hypolimnetic oxygen concentration thereby optimizing the ability to supply a desirable discharge temperature to the downstream river during summer. This new withdrawal strategy also increased the hypolimnetic raw water volume to be used for drinking water supply, but reduced the dissolved oxygen concentrations in the deep and cold water layers (hypolimnion). Implications of the results for reservoir management are discussed and the numerical model is provided for operators as a simple and efficient tool for optimizing the withdrawal strategy within different reservoir contexts. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Scoping Summary Report: Development of Lower Basin Shortage Guidelines and Coordinated Management Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Particularly Under Low Reservoir Conditions

OpenAIRE

U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation

2006-01-01

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) acting on behalf of the Secretary of the Department of the Interior (Secretary) proposes to take action to adopt specific Colorado River Lower Basin shortage guidelines and coordinated reservoir management strategies to address operations of Lake Powell and Lake Mead, particularly under low reservoir conditions. This proposed Action will provide a greater degree of certainty to all water users and managers in the Colorado River Basin by providing more d...

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Ensuring robust decisions and deployable solutions in UK LLW management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, Matthew

2014-01-01

The Nuclear Decommissioning Authority (NDA) is responsible for the decommissioning and site restoration of civil nuclear liabilities in the UK. Our decommissioning programme will last over 100 years and generate approximately 3.8 million m3 of LLW, three quarters of which will be VLLW. As well as decommissioning sites, our estate includes operations, such as power generation at Wylfa and reprocessing and waste management at Sellafield. As a result we have a clear interest in effective and affordable management of low level waste. This is further enhanced by two important aspects: our role in developing and implementing strategy for the management of nuclear industry LLW in the UK and our ownership of the Low Level Waste Repository, a critical part of the UK's radioactive waste management infrastructure. Disposal capacity at LLWR is a precious resource; recognition of this fact has provided effective leverage to changing the way LLW is managed in the UK. In 2010 we published the UK Nuclear Industry LLW Strategy which comprised three main themes: the waste hierarchy; making the best use of existing LLW management assets; and, the need for new fit-for-purpose waste management routes. In order to preserve disposal capacity at LLWR we wanted to increase choice for organisations that manage LLW. Regulation of the LLW management has also had to keep pace with and enable this change. Increasing choice requires an increased focus on making robust, and not always easy, decisions. In the past, 'LLW' was simply consigned for disposal at LLWR, now LLW managers have to make decisions between clearance, exemption, reuse, recycling, incineration and disposal. Arguably, these decisions become more finely balanced at the lower end of the LLW spectrum. In the UK, a number of tools and sources of support are in place to help with this process, including: the National LLW Programme; good practice guidance (industry led) on assessing Best Available Techniques; and a

Modeling Reservoir-River Networks in Support of Optimizing Seasonal-Scale Reservoir Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Villa, D. L.; Lowry, T. S.; Bier, A.; Barco, J.; Sun, A.

2011-12-01

HydroSCOPE (Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization of Power and the Environment) is a seasonal time-scale tool for scenario analysis and optimization of reservoir-river networks. Developed in MATLAB, HydroSCOPE is an object-oriented model that simulates basin-scale dynamics with an objective of optimizing reservoir operations to maximize revenue from power generation, reliability in the water supply, environmental performance, and flood control. HydroSCOPE is part of a larger toolset that is being developed through a Department of Energy multi-laboratory project. This project's goal is to provide conventional hydropower decision makers with better information to execute their day-ahead and seasonal operations and planning activities by integrating water balance and operational dynamics across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. This presentation details the modeling approach and functionality of HydroSCOPE. HydroSCOPE consists of a river-reservoir network model and an optimization routine. The river-reservoir network model simulates the heat and water balance of river-reservoir networks for time-scales up to one year. The optimization routine software, DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications - dakota.sandia.gov), is seamlessly linked to the network model and is used to optimize daily volumetric releases from the reservoirs to best meet a set of user-defined constraints, such as maximizing revenue while minimizing environmental violations. The network model uses 1-D approximations for both the reservoirs and river reaches and is able to account for surface and sediment heat exchange as well as ice dynamics for both models. The reservoir model also accounts for inflow, density, and withdrawal zone mixing, and diffusive heat exchange. Routing for the river reaches is accomplished using a modified Muskingum-Cunge approach that automatically calculates the internal timestep and sub-reach lengths to match the conditions of

Modeling Alpine hydropower reservoirs management to study the water-energy nexus under change.

Science.gov (United States)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Fumagalli, E.; Weber, E.

2014-12-01

Climate change and growing population are expected to severely affect freshwater availability by the end of 21th century. Many river basins, especially in the Mediterranean region, are likely to become more prone to periods of reduced water supply, risking considerable impacts on the society, the environment, and the economy, thus emphasizing the need to rethink the way water resources are distributed, managed, and used at the regional and river basin scale. This paradigm shift will be essential to cope with the undergoing global change, characterized by growing water demands and by increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes. Most of the literature traditionally focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on water resources, while our understanding of the human footprint on the hydrological cycle is limited. For example, changes in the operation of the Alpine hydropower reservoirs induced by socio-economic drivers (e.g., development of renewable energy) were already observed over the last few years and produced relevant impacts on multiple water uses due to the altered distribution of water volumes in time and space. Modeling human decisions as well as the links between society and environmental systems becomes key to develop reliable projections on the co-evolution of the coupled human-water systems and deliver robust adaptation strategies This work contributes a preliminary model-based analysis of the behaviour of hydropower operators under changing energy market and climate conditions. The proposed approach is developed for the San Giacomo-Cancano reservoir system, Italy. The identification of the current operating policy is supported by input variable selection methods to select the most relevant hydrological and market based drivers to explain the observed release time series.. The identified model is then simulated under a set of future scenarios, accounting for both climate and socio-economic change (e.g. expansion of the electric vehicle sector, load

Integrated Approach to Drilling Project in Unconventional Reservoir Using Reservoir Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Stopa, Jerzy; Wiśniowski, Rafał; Wojnarowski, Paweł; Janiga, Damian; Skrzypaszek, Krzysztof

2018-03-01

Accumulation and flow mechanisms in unconventional reservoir are different compared to conventional. This requires a special approach of field management with drilling and stimulation treatments as major factor for further production. Integrated approach of unconventional reservoir production optimization assumes coupling drilling project with full scale reservoir simulation for determine best well placement, well length, fracturing treatment design and mid-length distance between wells. Full scale reservoir simulation model emulate a part of polish shale - gas field. The aim of this paper is to establish influence of technical factor for gas production from shale gas field. Due to low reservoir permeability, stimulation treatment should be direct towards maximizing the hydraulic contact. On the basis of production scenarios, 15 stages hydraulic fracturing allows boost gas production over 1.5 times compared to 8 stages. Due to the possible interference of the wells, it is necessary to determine the distance between the horizontal parts of the wells trajectories. In order to determine the distance between the wells allowing to maximize recovery factor of resources in the stimulated zone, a numerical algorithm based on a dynamic model was developed and implemented. Numerical testing and comparative study show that the most favourable arrangement assumes a minimum allowable distance between the wells. This is related to the volume ratio of the drainage zone to the total volume of the stimulated zone.

Healthcare managers' decision making: findings of a small scale exploratory study.

Science.gov (United States)

Macdonald, Jackie; Bath, Peter A; Booth, Andrew

2008-12-01

Managers who work in publicly funded healthcare organizations are an understudied group. Some of the influences on their decisions may be unique to healthcare. This study considers how to integrate research knowledge effectively into healthcare managers' decision making, and how to manage and integrate information that will include community data. This first phase in a two-phase mixed methods research study used a qualitative, multiple case studies design. Nineteen semi-structured interviews were undertaken using the critical incident technique. Interview transcripts were analysed using the NatCen Framework. One theme represented ;information and decisions'. Cases were determined to involve complex multi-level, multi-situational decisions with participants in practical rather than ceremonial work roles. Most considered organizational knowledge in the first two decision phases and external knowledge, including research, in the third phase. All participants engaged in satisficing to some degree.

Decision problems in management of construction projects

Science.gov (United States)

Szafranko, E.

2017-10-01

In a construction business, one must oftentimes make decisions during all stages of a building process, from planning a new construction project through its execution to the stage of using a ready structure. As a rule, the decision making process is made more complicated due to certain conditions specific for civil engineering. With such diverse decision situations, it is recommended to apply various decision making support methods. Both, literature and hands-on experience suggest several methods based on analytical and computational procedures, some less and some more complex. This article presents the methods which can be helpful in supporting decision making processes in the management of civil engineering projects. These are multi-criteria methods, such as MCE, AHP or indicator methods. Because the methods have different advantages and disadvantages, whereas decision situations have their own specific nature, a brief summary of the methods alongside some recommendations regarding their practical applications has been given at the end of the paper. The main aim of this article is to review the methods of decision support and their analysis for possible use in the construction industry.

Risk management in oil reservoir water-flooding under economic uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Siraj, Muhammad; Van den Hof, Paul; Jansen, Jan Dirk

2015-01-01

Model-based economic optimization of the water-flooding process in oil reservoirs suffers from high levels of uncertainty. The achievable economic objective is highly uncertain due to the varying economic conditions and the limited knowledge of the reservoir model parameters. For improving

Operation of Dokan Reservoir under Stochastic Conditions as Regards the Inflows and the Energy Demands

Science.gov (United States)

Rashed, G. I.

2018-02-01

This paper presented a way of obtaining certain operating rules on time steps for the management of a large reservoir operation with a peak hydropower plant associated to it. The rules were allowed to have the form of non-linear regression equations which link a decision variable (here the water volume in the reservoir at the end of the time step) by several parameters influencing it. This paper considered the Dokan hydroelectric development KR-Iraq, which operation data are available for. It was showing that both the monthly average inflows and the monthly power demands are random variables. A model of deterministic dynamic programming intending the minimization of the total amount of the squares differences between the demanded energy and the generated energy is run with a multitude of annual scenarios of inflows and monthly required energies. The operating rules achieved allow the efficient and safe management of the operation and it is quietly and accurately known the forecast of the inflow and of the energy demand on the next time step.

Dokan Hydropower Reservoir Operation under Stochastic Conditions as Regards the Inflows and the Energy Demands

Science.gov (United States)

Izat Rashed, Ghamgeen

2018-03-01

This paper presented a way of obtaining certain operating rules on time steps for the management of a large reservoir operation with a peak hydropower plant associated to it. The rules were allowed to have the form of non-linear regression equations which link a decision variable (here the water volume in the reservoir at the end of the time step) by several parameters influencing it. This paper considered the Dokan hydroelectric development KR-Iraq, which operation data are available for. It was showing that both the monthly average inflows and the monthly power demands are random variables. A model of deterministic dynamic programming intending the minimization of the total amount of the squares differences between the demanded energy and the generated energy is run with a multitude of annual scenarios of inflows and monthly required energies. The operating rules achieved allow the efficient and safe management of the operation and it is quietly and accurately known the forecast of the inflow and of the energy demand on the next time step.

"Making Do" Decisions: How Home Healthcare Personnel Manage Their Exposure to Home Hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Wills, Celia E; Polivka, Barbara J; Darragh, Amy; Lavender, Steven; Sommerich, Carolyn; Stredney, Donald

2016-04-01

This study describes the decision-making processes home healthcare personnel (HHP) use to manage their personal health and safety when managing hazards in client homes. A professionally diverse national sample of 68 HHP participated in individual semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions, and described their decision making and strategies for hazard management in their work environments. HHP described 353 hazard management dilemmas within 394 specifically identified hazards, which were clustered within three broader categories: electrical/fire, slip/trip/lift, and environmental exposures. HHP described multiple types of "making do" decisions for hazard management solutions in which perceived and actual resource limitations constrained response options. A majority of hazard management decisions in the broader hazards categories (72.5%, 68.5%, and 63.5%, respectively) were classifiable as less than optimal. These findings stress the need for more support of HHPs, including comprehensive training, to improve HHP decision making and hazard management strategies, especially in context of resource constraints. © The Author(s) 2015.

Nested algorithms for optimal reservoir operation and their embedding in a decision support platform

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Delipetrev, B.

2016-01-01

Reservoir operation is a multi-objective optimization problem traditionally solved with dynamic programming (DP) and stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) algorithms. The thesis presents novel algorithms for optimal reservoir operation named nested DP (nDP), nested SDP (nSDP), nested reinforcement

Organising evidence for environmental management decisions: a '4S' hierarchy.

Science.gov (United States)

Dicks, Lynn V; Walsh, Jessica C; Sutherland, William J

2014-11-01

Making decisions informed by the best-available science is an objective for many organisations managing the environment or natural resources. Yet, available science is still not widely used in environmental policy and practice. We describe a '4S' hierarchy for organising relevant science to inform decisions. This hierarchy has already revolutionised clinical practice. It is beginning to emerge for environmental management, although all four levels need substantial development before environmental decision-makers can reliably and efficiently find the evidence they need. We expose common bypass routes that currently lead to poor or biased representation of scientific knowledge. We argue that the least developed level of the hierarchy is that closest to decision-makers, placing synthesised scientific knowledge into environmental decision support systems. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Improved water management with the development of Snake Lake Reservoir

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kemp, P.; Miller, D.; Webber, J.

1998-01-01

The $10.3 million Snake Lake Reservoir which is located south of the TransCanada Highway between Bassano and Brooks, in Alberta, was completed in 1997. It provides 19.1 million cubic meters of storage to improve the water supply for the irrigation of 29,000 hectares of agricultural land in the Eastern Irrigation District. One of challenges that engineers faced during the construction of the reservoir was the extremely soft dam foundation conditions. The resolution of this and other challenges are discussed. In addition to water storage, the reservoir also provides wildlife, recreation and aquaculture opportunities. 8 refs., 5 figs

Fusion methodologies in crisis management higher level fusion and decision making

CERN Document Server

Scott, Peter

2016-01-01

This book emphasizes a contemporary view on the role of higher level fusion in designing crisis management systems. It provides the formal foundations, architecture, and implementation strategies required for building dynamic current and future situational pictures. It goes on to discuss the state-of-the-art computational approaches to designing such processes and their inherent challenges. This book integrates recent advances in decision theory with those in fusion methodology to define an end-to-end framework for decision support in crisis management. The text discusses modern fusion and decision support methods for dealing with heterogeneous and often unreliable, low fidelity, contradictory, and redundant data and information, as well as rare, unknown, unconventional or even unimaginable critical situations. The book also examines the role of context in situation management, cognitive aspects of decision making and situation management, approaches to domain representation, visualization, as well as the rol...

Stochastic reservoir operation under drought with fuzzy objectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parent, E.; Duckstein, L.

1993-01-01

Biojective reservoir operation under drought conditions is investigated using stochastic dynamic programming. As both objectives (irrigation water supply, water quality) can only be defined imprecisely, a fuzzy set approach is used to encode the decision maker (DM)'s preferences. The nature driven components are modeled by means of classical stage-state system analysis. The state is three dimensional (inflow memory, drought irrigation index, reservoir level); the decision vector elements are release and irrigation allocation. Stochasticity stems from the random nature of inflows and irrigation demands. The transition function includes a lag one inflow Markov model and mass balance equations. The human driven component is designed as a confluence of fuzzy objectives and constraints after Bellman and Zadeh. Fuzzy numbers are assessed to represent the DM's objectives by two different techniques, the direct one and indirect pairwise comparison. The real case study of the Neste river system in southwestern France is used to illustrate the approach; the result are compared to a classical sequential decision theoretical model derived earlier from the viewpoints of ease of modeling, computational efforts, plausibility and robustness of results

Aging Reservoirs in a Changing Climate: Examining Storage Loss of Large Reservoirs and Variability of Sedimentation Rate in a Dominant Cropland Region

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmani, V.; Kastens, J.; deNoyelles, F.; Huggins, D.; Martinko, E.

2015-12-01

Dam construction has multiple environmental and hydrological consequences including impacts on upstream and downstream ecosystems, water chemistry, and streamflow. Behind the dam the reservoir can trap sediment from the stream and fill over time. With increasing population and drinking and irrigation water demands, particularly in the areas that have highly variable weather and extended drought periods such as the United States Great Plains, reservoir sedimentation escalates water management concerns. Under nearly all projected climate change scenarios we expect that reservoir water storage and management will come under intense scrutiny because of the extensive use of interstate river compacts in the Great Plains. In the state of Kansas, located in the Great Plains, bathymetric surveys have been completed during the last decade for many major lakes by the Kansas Biological Survey, Kansas Water Office, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. In this paper, we studied the spatial and temporal changes of reservoir characteristics including sedimentation yield, depletion rate, and storage capacity loss for 24 federally-operated reservoirs in Kansas. These reservoirs have an average age of about 50 years and collectively have lost approximately 15% of their original capacity, with the highest annual observed single-reservoir depletion rate of 0.84% and sedimentation yield of 1,685 m3 km-2 yr-1.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

A generic accounting model to support operations management decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdaasdonk, P.J.A.; Wouters, M.J.F.

2001-01-01

Information systems are generally unable to generate information about the financial consequences of operations management decisions. This is because the procedures for determining the relevant accounting information for decision support are not formalised in ways that can be implemented in

Policy, practice and decision making for zoonotic disease management: water and Cryptosporidium.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Zoë; Alcock, Ruth E; Christley, Robert M; Haygarth, Philip M; Heathwaite, A Louise; Latham, Sophia M; Mort, Maggie; Oliver, David M; Pickup, Roger; Wastling, Jonathan M; Wynne, Brian

2012-04-01

Decision making for zoonotic disease management should be based on many forms of appropriate data and sources of evidence. However, the criteria and timing for policy response and the resulting management decisions are often altered when a disease outbreak occurs and captures full media attention. In the case of waterborne disease, such as the robust protozoa, Cryptosporidium spp, exposure can cause significant human health risks and preventing exposure by maintaining high standards of biological and chemical water quality remains a priority for water companies in the UK. Little has been documented on how knowledge and information is translated between the many stakeholders involved in the management of Cryptosporidium, which is surprising given the different drivers that have shaped management decisions. Such information, coupled with the uncertainties that surround these data is essential for improving future management strategies that minimise disease outbreaks. Here, we examine the interplay between scientific information, the media, and emergent government and company policies to examine these issues using qualitative and quantitative data relating to Cryptosporidium management decisions by a water company in the North West of England. Our results show that political and media influences are powerful drivers of management decisions if fuelled by high profile outbreaks. Furthermore, the strength of the scientific evidence is often constrained by uncertainties in the data, and in the way knowledge is translated between policy levels during established risk management procedures. In particular, under or over-estimating risk during risk assessment procedures together with uncertainty regarding risk factors within the wider environment, was found to restrict the knowledge-base for decision-making in Cryptosporidium management. Our findings highlight some key current and future challenges facing the management of such diseases that are widely applicable to other

Decision and game theory in management with intuitionistic fuzzy sets

CERN Document Server

Li, Deng-Feng

2014-01-01

The focus of this book is on establishing theories and methods of both decision and game analysis in management using intuitionistic fuzzy sets. It proposes a series of innovative theories, models and methods such as the representation theorem and extension principle of intuitionistic fuzzy sets, ranking methods of intuitionistic fuzzy numbers, non-linear and linear programming methods for intuitionistic fuzzy multi-attribute decision making and (interval-valued) intuitionistic fuzzy matrix games. These theories and methods form the theory system of intuitionistic fuzzy decision making and games, which is not only remarkably different from those of the traditional, Bayes and/or fuzzy decision theory but can also provide an effective and efficient tool for solving complex management problems. Since there is a certain degree of inherent hesitancy in real-life management, which cannot always be described by the traditional mathematical methods and/or fuzzy set theory, this book offers an effective approach to us...

Improved characterization of reservoir behavior by integration of reservoir performances data and rock type distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davies, D.K.; Vessell, R.K. [David K. Davies & Associates, Kingwood, TX (United States); Doublet, L.E. [Texas A& M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)] [and others

1997-08-01

An integrated geological/petrophysical and reservoir engineering study was performed for a large, mature waterflood project (>250 wells, {approximately}80% water cut) at the North Robertson (Clear Fork) Unit, Gaines County, Texas. The primary goal of the study was to develop an integrated reservoir description for {open_quotes}targeted{close_quotes} (economic) 10-acre (4-hectare) infill drilling and future recovery operations in a low permeability, carbonate (dolomite) reservoir. Integration of the results from geological/petrophysical studies and reservoir performance analyses provide a rapid and effective method for developing a comprehensive reservoir description. This reservoir description can be used for reservoir flow simulation, performance prediction, infill targeting, waterflood management, and for optimizing well developments (patterns, completions, and stimulations). The following analyses were performed as part of this study: (1) Geological/petrophysical analyses: (core and well log data) - {open_quotes}Rock typing{close_quotes} based on qualitative and quantitative visualization of pore-scale features. Reservoir layering based on {open_quotes}rock typing {close_quotes} and hydraulic flow units. Development of a {open_quotes}core-log{close_quotes} model to estimate permeability using porosity and other properties derived from well logs. The core-log model is based on {open_quotes}rock types.{close_quotes} (2) Engineering analyses: (production and injection history, well tests) Material balance decline type curve analyses to estimate total reservoir volume, formation flow characteristics (flow capacity, skin factor, and fracture half-length), and indications of well/boundary interference. Estimated ultimate recovery analyses to yield movable oil (or injectable water) volumes, as well as indications of well and boundary interference.

Nonlinearities in reservoir engineering: Enhancing quantum correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Xiangming; Hu, Qingping; Li, Lingchao; Huang, Chen; Rao, Shi

2017-12-01

There are two decisive factors for quantum correlations in reservoir engineering, but they are strongly reversely dependent on the atom-field nonlinearities. One is the squeezing parameter for the Bogoliubov modes-mediated collective interactions, while the other is the dissipative rates for the engineered collective dissipations. Exemplifying two-level atomic ensembles, we show that the moderate nonlinearities can compromise these two factors and thus enhance remarkably two-mode squeezing and entanglement of different spin atomic ensembles or different optical fields. This suggests that the moderate nonlinearities of the two-level systems are more advantageous for applications in quantum networks associated with reservoir engineering.

Designing adaptive operating rules for a large multi-purpose reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Geressu, Robel; Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien

2017-04-01

Reservoirs whose live storage capacity is large compared with annual inflow have "memory", i.e., their storage levels contain information about past inflows and reservoir operations. Such "long-memory" reservoirs can be found in basins in dry regions such as the Nile River Basin in Africa, the Colorado River Basin in the US, or river basins in Western and Central Asia. There the effects of a dry year have the potential to impact reservoir levels and downstream releases for several subsequent years, prompting tensions in transboundary basins. Yet, current reservoir operation rules in those reservoirs do not reflect this by integrating past climate history and release decisions among the factors that influence operating decisions. This work proposes and demonstrates an adaptive reservoir operating rule that explicitly accounts for the recent history of release decisions, and not only current storage level and near-term inflow forecasts. This implies adding long-term (e.g., multiyear) objectives to the existing short-term (e.g., annual) ones. We apply these operating rules to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a large reservoir under construction on the Blue Nile River. Energy generation has to be balanced with the imperative of releasing enough water in low flow years (e.g., the minimum 1, 2 or 3 year cumulative flow) to avoid tensions with downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt. Maximizing the minimum multi-year releases could be of interest for the Nile problem to minimize the impact on performance of the large High Aswan Dam in Egypt. Objectives include maximizing the average and minimum annual energy generation and maximizing the minimum annual, two year and three year cumulative releases. The system model is tested using 30 stochastically generated streamflow series. One can then derive adaptive release rules depending on the value of one- and two-year total releases with respect to thresholds. Then, there are 3 sets of release rules for the reservoir depending

Impacts, Perceptions and Management of Climate-Related Risks to Cage Aquaculture in the Reservoirs of Northern Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Lebel, Louis; Lebel, Phimphakan; Lebel, Boripat

2016-12-01

Weather is suspected to influence fish growth and survival, and be a factor in mass mortality events in cage aquaculture in reservoirs. The purpose of this study was to identify the important climate-related risks faced by cage aquaculture farms; evaluate how these risks were currently being managed; and explore how farmers might adapt to the effects of climate change. Fish farmers were interviewed across the northern region of Thailand to get information on impacts, perceptions and practices. Drought or low water levels, heat waves, cold spells and periods with dense cloud cover, each caused significant financial losses. Perceptions of climate-related risks were consistent with experienced impacts. Risks are primarily managed in the short-term with techniques like aeration and reducing feed. In the mid-term farmers adjust stocking calendars, take financial measures and seek new information. Farmers also emphasize the importance of maintaining good relations with other stakeholders and reservoir management. Larger farms placed greater importance on risk management than small farms, even though types and levels of risk perceived were very similar. Most fish farms were managed by men alone, or men and women working together. Gender differences in risk perception were not detected, but women judged a few risk management practices as more important than men. Fish farmers perceived that climate is changing, but their perceptions were not strongly associated with recently having suffered impacts from extreme weather. The findings of this study provide important inputs to improving risk management under current and future climate.

Interdisciplinary Collaborative Learning: Using Decision Analysts to Enhance Undergraduate International Management Education

Science.gov (United States)

Palocsay, Susan W.; White, Marion M.; Zimmerman, D. Kent

2004-01-01

This article describes an experiential learning activity designed to promote the development of decision-making skills in international management students at the undergraduate level. Students from an undergraduate management science course in decision analysis served as consultants on a case assigned to teams in an international management class.…

Hydrological and water quality impact assessment of a Mediterranean limno-reservoir under climate change and land use management scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Molina Navarro, Eugenio; Trolle, Dennis; Martínez-Pérez, Silvia

2014-01-01

Water scarcity and water pollution constitute a big challenge for water managers in the Mediterranean region today and will exacerbate in a projected future warmer world, making a holistic approach for water resources management at the catchment scale essential. We expanded the Soil and Water......-reservoir, especially during summer, complicating the fulfillment of its purposes. Most of the scenarios also predicted a deterioration of trophic conditions in the limno-reservoir. Fertilization and soil erosion were the main factors affecting nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations. Combined climate and land use...... change scenarios showed noticeable synergistic effects on nutrients exports, relative to running the scenarios individually. While the impact of fertilization on nitrate export is projected to be reduced with warming in most cases, an additional 13% increase in the total phosphorus export is expected...

Optimal Operation of a Network of Multi-purpose Reservoir : A Review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nay Myo Lin, N.M.; Rutten, M.M.

2016-01-01

Due to the effects of climate change and population growth, reservoirs play a more and more important role in water resources management. The management of a multi-reservoir system is complex due to the curse of dimensionalities, nonlinearities and conflicts between different objectives. The

Decision making and senior management: the implementation of change projects covering clinical management in SUS hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Pacheco, José Márcio da Cunha; Gomes, Romeu

2016-08-01

This paper analyses the decision making process for senior management in public hospitals that are a part of the National Health Service in Brazil (hereafter SUS) in relation to projects aimed at changing clinical management. The methodological design of this study is qualitative in nature taking a hermeneutics-dialectics perspective in terms of results. Hospital directors noted that clinical management projects changed the state of hospitals through: improving their organizations, mobilizing their staff in order to increase a sense of order and systemizing actions and available resources. Technical rationality was the principal basis used in the decision making process for managers. Due to the reality of many hospitals having fragmented organizations, this fact impeded the use of aspects related to rationality, such as economic and financial factors in the decision making process. The incremental model and general politics also play a role in this area. We concluded that the decision making process embraces a large array of factors including rational aspects such as the use of management techniques and the ability to analyze, interpret and summarize. It also incorporates subjective elements such as how to select values and dealing with people's working experiences. We recognized that management problems are wide in scope, ambiguous, complex and do not come with a lot of structure in practice.

Knowledge Management Technology for Decision Support: an empirical examination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meliha Handzic

2001-11-01

Full Text Available This paper reports the results of an empirical examination of the effectiveness of one type of knowledge management technology, namely 'contextual knowledge repository', for supporting individual decision makers in a predictive judgement task context. 31 volunteer subjects participated in the study. The results indicate that a given technology was fairly useful, but insufficient to maximally enhance individual decision making. On one hand, subjects were found to extract more knowledge and make significantly smaller decision errors than their notional naive counterparts. On the other hand, subjects tended to extract less knowledge and make significantly larger decision errors compared to notional optimal counterparts. These findings suggest that individuals could potentially benefit from those knowledge management technologies that would provide additional explicit analytical and procedural knowledge, or those that would facilitate sharing of tacit knowledge through interaction with others. Future research is necessary to address these issues.

Decision-theoretic planning of clinical patient management

OpenAIRE

Peek, Niels Bastiaan

2000-01-01

When a doctor is treating a patient, he is constantly facing decisions. From the externally visible signs and symptoms he must establish a hypothesis of what might be wrong with the patient; then he must decide whether additional diagnostic procedures are required to verify this hypothesis, whether therapeutic action is necessary, and which post-therapeutic trajectory is to be followed. All these bedside decisions are related to each other, and the whole task of clinical patient management ca...

ROLE OF MANAGEMENT ACCOUNTING IN DECISIONS ON MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. I. Khomutetskaya

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the introduction of management accounting in the work of organizations (enterprises that will improve the efficiency of administrative decisions will contribute to the flexibility and adaptability of the organization to changes in the external environment, increased productivity and efficient use of all resources of the organization.

Management and Decisions in the Structures of Human Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tadeusz Galanc

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This article has been devoted to the key dimensions of decision-making. The main goal of the authors was to point out the role and effect of invariants of nature, logic and conceptual systems of science and management, which are extremely important in decision-making processes. The research hypothesis has been tested that the complexity of decision-making and management are determined by the state of reality (Nature. This hypothesis is related to the fact that in science there is currently no uniform methodology associated with decision-making, just as science is not methodologically uniform. One can even doubt whether it is possible to describe the essential dimensions of decisions undertaken by Man, as discussed in this article. These problems are not a novelty to science, since they have been analysed by many scientists in the past. The authors of the article present the complexity and diversity of concepts defining systems of decision-making and management, based on selected fields of knowledge which are generally relevant to this issue, in particular fields associated with ontology and epistemology. Therefore, the text refers broadly to investigating the reality of basic areas of human knowledge and the overlapping relationships between them. This applies to the so-called circle of the sciences proposed and examined by the psychologist J. Piaget. An additional aim of the authors was to create a text presenting contemporary human knowledge about the reality which surrounds us. To understand reality means to be in relative equilibrium with it. (original abstract

Integrating environmental monitoring with cumulative effects management and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F

2018-05-01

Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to

The Importance of Investment Decisions in Project Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cosmina Mădălina Pop

2008-10-01

Full Text Available The financing decision alongside with investment decision represents the core of financial management. The paper presents the main steps in realizing investment projects, the option criteria used in pre-investment analysis, the techniques of financing the investments project, but also the methods of evaluation applied in selecting the most suitable project, accordingly with company’s developlment strategy and policy.

STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING IN THE MANAGEMENT OF PROJECTS, AIMED AT THE BIM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burneo Valarezo Servio

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Decision making in the management of projects aimed at Building Information Modeling, represents the main action to be developed during the development of the investment lifecycle, from inception to the development of life, decision marking is present in all phases of project management. In the Fund's shares of the production system by projects, decision making integrated from the priorities of the projects play an important role in the success of the company. The present work has as objective the development of a procedure for decision making during the life cycle of the project, the conditions for its implementation and the process for its development, with the purpose of raising their quality, to ensure decision making effective, consistent with the current development of the techniques of management.

Using basic geographic information systems functionality to support sustainable forest management decision making and post-decision assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Ronald E. McRoberts; R. James Barbour; Krista M. Gebert; Greg C. Liknes; Mark D. Nelson; Dacia M. Meneguzzo; et al.

2006-01-01

Sustainable management of natural resources requires informed decision making and post-decision assessments of the results of those decisions. Increasingly, both activities rely on analyses of spatial data in the forms of maps and digital data layers. Fortunately, a variety of supporting maps and data layers rapidly are becoming available. Unfortunately, however, user-...

Integrated Services Management System (ISMS): A management and decision making tool

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barber, D.S.; Brockman, D.L.; Buxton, L.D. [and others

1995-10-01

This document provides information concerning the Integrated Services Management System (ISMS) that was developed for the Laboratories Services Division during the period February 1994 through May 1995. ISMS was developed as a formal method for centralized management of programs within the Division. With minor modifications, this system can be adapted for management of all overhead functions at SNL or for sector level program management. Included in this document are the reasons for the creation of this system as well as the resulting benefits. The ISMS consists of six interlinked processes; Issues Management, Task/Activity Planning, Work Decision, Commitment Management, Process/Project Management, and Performance Assessment. Those processes are described in detail within this document. Additionally, lessons learned and suggestions for future improvements are indicated.

Development of transportation asset management decision support tools : final report.

Science.gov (United States)

2017-08-09

This study developed a web-based prototype decision support platform to demonstrate the benefits of transportation asset management in monitoring asset performance, supporting asset funding decisions, planning budget tradeoffs, and optimizing resourc...

Structuring decisions for managing threatened and endangered species in a changing climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Gregory, Robin; Arvai, Joseph; Gerber, Leah R

2013-12-01

The management of endangered species under climate change is a challenging and often controversial task that incorporates input from a variety of different environmental, economic, social, and political interests. Yet many listing and recovery decisions for endangered species unfold on an ad hoc basis without reference to decision-aiding approaches that can improve the quality of management choices. Unlike many treatments of this issue, which consider endangered species management a science-based problem, we suggest that a clear decision-making process is equally necessary. In the face of new threats due to climate change, managers' choices about endangered species require closely linked analyses and deliberations that identify key objectives and develop measurable attributes, generate and compare management alternatives, estimate expected consequences and key sources of uncertainty, and clarify trade-offs across different dimensions of value. Several recent cases of endangered species conservation decisions illustrate our proposed decision-focused approach, including Gulf of Maine Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) recovery framework development, Cultus Lake sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) management, and Upper Columbia River white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) recovery planning. Estructuración de Decisiones para Manejar Especies Amenazadas y en Peligro en un Clima Cambiante. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Analysis of management quality and management decisions made using the example of russian oil and gas companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kostylev A.O.

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Results of empirical surveys performed by Russian and foreign researchers with regard to behavior patterns of managers, authorized by owners to make investment decisions, are systematized. Analysis of management quality and decisions made by Russian oil and gas managers are performed using the following 2 criteria: market capitalization change and opinion of professional society. The purpose of the research is to attract attention to low management quality in Russian statowned oil and gas companies.

Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management: decision making at the intersection of science, politics, and society

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Isaacs, T. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States)

2005-07-01

This paper outlines the science, politics and the decision making process in implementing a nuclear fuel management program. It discusses the issues in the light of Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management. The paper discusses the technical as well as the institutional challenge in nuclear waste management. It discusses some of the key elements of the Canadian approach and concludes with some key recommendation in the way forward.

Estimating Western U.S. Reservoir Sedimentation

Science.gov (United States)

Bensching, L.; Livneh, B.; Greimann, B. P.

2017-12-01

Reservoir sedimentation is a long-term problem for water management across the Western U.S. Observations of sedimentation are limited to reservoir surveys that are costly and infrequent, with many reservoirs having only two or fewer surveys. This work aims to apply a recently developed ensemble of sediment algorithms to estimate reservoir sedimentation over several western U.S. reservoirs. The sediment algorithms include empirical, conceptual, stochastic, and processes based approaches and are coupled with a hydrologic modeling framework. Preliminary results showed that the more complex and processed based algorithms performed better in predicting high sediment flux values and in a basin transferability experiment. However, more testing and validation is required to confirm sediment model skill. This work is carried out in partnership with the Bureau of Reclamation with the goal of evaluating the viability of reservoir sediment yield prediction across the western U.S. using a multi-algorithm approach. Simulations of streamflow and sediment fluxes are validated against observed discharges, as well as a Reservoir Sedimentation Information database that is being developed by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Specific goals of this research include (i) quantifying whether inter-algorithm differences consistently capture observational variability; (ii) identifying whether certain categories of models consistently produce the best results, (iii) assessing the expected sedimentation life-span of several western U.S. reservoirs through long-term simulations.

Bayesian inference and decision theory - A framework for decision making in natural resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, R.M.; Johnson, F.A.

2003-01-01

Bayesian inference and decision theory may be used in the solution of relatively complex problems of natural resource management, owing to recent advances in statistical theory and computing. In particular, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms provide a computational framework for fitting models of adequate complexity and for evaluating the expected consequences of alternative management actions. We illustrate these features using an example based on management of waterfowl habitat.

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

2009-01-01

Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives

MAPPING OF RESERVOIR PROPERTIES AND FACIES THROUGH INTEGRATION OF STATIC AND DYNAMIC DATA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Albert C. Reynolds; Dean S. Oliver; Fengjun Zhang; Yannong Dong; Jan Arild Skjervheim; Ning Liu

2003-01-01

Knowledge of the distribution of permeability and porosity in a reservoir is necessary for the prediction of future oil production, estimation of the location of bypassed oil, and optimization of reservoir management. But while the volume of data that can potentially provide information on reservoir architecture and fluid distributions has increased enormously in the past decade, it is not yet possible to make use of all the available data in an integrated fashion. While it is relatively easy to generate plausible reservoir models that honor static data such as core, log, and seismic data, it is far more difficult to generate plausible reservoir models that honor dynamic data such as transient pressures, saturations, and flow rates. As a result, the uncertainty in reservoir properties is higher than it could be and reservoir management can not be optimized. The goal of this project is to develop computationally efficient automatic history matching techniques for generating geologically plausible reservoir models which honor both static and dynamic data. Solution of this problem is necessary for the quantification of uncertainty in future reservoir performance predictions and for the optimization of reservoir management. Facies (defined here as regions of relatively uniform petrophysical properties) are common features of all reservoirs. Because the flow properties of the various facies can vary greatly, knowledge of the location of facies boundaries is of utmost importance for the prediction of reservoir performance and for the optimization of reservoir management. When the boundaries between facies are fairly well known, but flow properties are poorly known, the average properties for all facies can be determined using traditional techniques. Traditional history matching honors dynamic data by adjusting petrophysical properties in large areas, but in the process of adjusting the reservoir model ignores the static data and often results in implausible reservoir

A decision model for the risk management of hazardous processes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.E.

1997-03-01

A decision model for risk management of hazardous processes as an optimisation problem of a point process is formulated in the study. In the approach, the decisions made by the management are divided into three categories: (1) planned process lifetime, (2) selection of the design and, (3) operational decisions. These three controlling methods play quite different roles in the practical risk management, which is also reflected in our approach. The optimisation of the process lifetime is related to the licensing problem of the process. It provides a boundary condition for a feasible utility function that is used as the actual objective function, i.e., maximizing the process lifetime utility. By design modifications, the management can affect the inherent accident hazard rate of the process. This is usually a discrete optimisation task. The study particularly concentrates upon the optimisation of the operational strategies given a certain design and licensing time. This is done by a dynamic risk model (marked point process model) representing the stochastic process of events observable or unobservable to the decision maker. An optimal long term control variable guiding the selection of operational alternatives in short term problems is studied. The optimisation problem is solved by the stochastic quasi-gradient procedure. The approach is illustrated by a case study. (23 refs.)

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2017-01-01

optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no......-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying......Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future...

Use of a fuzzy decision-making method in evaluating severe accident management strategies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jae, M.; Moon, J.H.

2002-01-01

In developing severe accident management strategies, an engineering decision would be made based on the available data and information that are vague, imprecise and uncertain by nature. These sorts of vagueness and uncertainty are due to lack of knowledge for the severe accident sequences of interest. The fuzzy set theory offers a possibility of handling these sorts of data and information. In this paper, the possibility to apply the decision-making method based on fuzzy set theory to the evaluation of the accident management strategies at a nuclear power plant is scrutinized. The fuzzy decision-making method uses linguistic variables and fuzzy numbers to represent the decision-maker's subjective assessments for the decision alternatives according to the decision criteria. The fuzzy mean operator is used to aggregate the decision-maker's subjective assessments, while the total integral value method is used to rank the decision alternatives. As a case study, the proposed method is applied to evaluating the accident management strategies at a nuclear power plant

IT Portfolio Management: A Holistic Approach to Outsourcing Decisions

OpenAIRE

Ho, Luke; ATKINS, Anthony

2009-01-01

This chapter provides an introduction to the advent of Information Technology Outsourcing (ITO) and its impact on portfolio management in modern day decision-making. Specifically, it outlines the use of the Application Portfolio Matrix (APM) by companies in formulating their strategic IT direction and why such techniques may be unsuitable for outsourcing decisions, which are inherently complex and multi-faceted in nature. Consequently, there is a need for alternative decision support tools to...

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A

A decision support framework for characterizing and managing dermal exposures to chemicals during Emergency Management and Operations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dotson, G Scott; Hudson, Naomi L; Maier, Andrew

2015-01-01

Emergency Management and Operations (EMO) personnel are in need of resources and tools to assist in understanding the health risks associated with dermal exposures during chemical incidents. This article reviews available resources and presents a conceptual framework for a decision support system (DSS) that assists in characterizing and managing risk during chemical emergencies involving dermal exposures. The framework merges principles of three decision-making techniques: 1) scenario planning, 2) risk analysis, and 3) multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This DSS facilitates dynamic decision making during each of the distinct life cycle phases of an emergency incident (ie, preparedness, response, or recovery) and identifies EMO needs. A checklist tool provides key questions intended to guide users through the complexities of conducting a dermal risk assessment. The questions define the scope of the framework for resource identification and application to support decision-making needs. The framework consists of three primary modules: 1) resource compilation, 2) prioritization, and 3) decision. The modules systematically identify, organize, and rank relevant information resources relating to the hazards of dermal exposures to chemicals and risk management strategies. Each module is subdivided into critical elements designed to further delineate the resources based on relevant incident phase and type of information. The DSS framework provides a much needed structure based on contemporary decision analysis principles for 1) documenting key questions for EMO problem formulation and 2) a method for systematically organizing, screening, and prioritizing information resources on dermal hazards, exposures, risk characterization, and management.

Ethical issues faced by clinician/managers in resource-allocation decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemieux-Charles, L; Meslin, E M; Aird, C; Baker, R; Leatt, P

1993-01-01

This article explores the ethical issues faced by clinicians with management responsibilities (clinician/managers) when making decisions related to resource allocation and utilization at a Canadian teaching hospital. Using a focus group method, 28 individuals participated in four homogeneous groups that included nurse managers, managers from other professional groups, and physician managers. Ethical issues that recurred throughout the discussions included fairness, concern with preventing harm, consumer/patient choice, balancing needs of different groups of patients, conflict between financial incentives and patient needs, and professional autonomy. The particular issue of conflict is analyzed from two perspectives--a theory of professional-bureaucratic roles and of obligation--that illustrate how both management and philosophical issues are related. The findings suggest that decentralizing resource allocation and utilization decisions does raise ethical issues for clinician/managers and that a better understanding of these issues can be obtained using an interdisciplinary perspective.

Pest management in Douglas-fir seed orchards: a microcomputer decision method

Science.gov (United States)

James B. Hoy; Michael I. Haverty

1988-01-01

The computer program described provides a Douglas-fir seed orchard manager (user) with a quantitative method for making insect pest management decisions on a desk-top computer. The decision system uses site-specific information such as estimates of seed crop size, insect attack rates, insecticide efficacy and application costs, weather, and crop value. At sites where...

THE IMPORTANCE OF BENCHMARKING IN MAKING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adriana-Mihaela IONESCU

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Launching a new business or project leads managers to make decisions and choose strategies that will then apply in their company. Most often, they take decisions only on instinct, but there are also companies that use benchmarking studies. Benchmarking is a highly effective management tool and is useful in the new competitive environment that has emerged from the need of organizations to constantly improve their performance in order to be competitive. Using this benchmarking process, organizations try to find the best practices applied in a business, learn from famous leaders and identify ways to increase their performance and competitiveness. Thus, managers gather information about market trends and about competitors, especially about the leaders in the field, and use these information in finding ideas and setting of guidelines for development. Benchmarking studies are often used in businesses of commerce, real estate, and industry and high-tech software.

Inflow forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks for reservoir operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Chiamsathit

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In this study, multi-layer perceptron (MLP artificial neural networks have been applied to forecast one-month-ahead inflow for the Ubonratana reservoir, Thailand. To assess how well the forecast inflows have performed in the operation of the reservoir, simulations were carried out guided by the systems rule curves. As basis of comparison, four inflow situations were considered: (1 inflow known and assumed to be the historic (Type A; (2 inflow known and assumed to be the forecast (Type F; (3 inflow known and assumed to be the historic mean for month (Type M; and (4 inflow is unknown with release decision only conditioned on the starting reservoir storage (Type N. Reservoir performance was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. It was found that Type F inflow situation produced the best performance while Type N was the worst performing. This clearly demonstrates the importance of good inflow information for effective reservoir operation.

Integrated Water Basin Management Including a Large Pit Lake and a Water Supply Reservoir: The Mero-Barcés Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado, Jordi; Juncosa-Rivera, Ricardo; Hernández-Anguiano, Horacio; Muñoz-Ibáñez, Andrea

2016-04-01

Water resource managers attempt to minimize conflicts among users, preserve the environment as much as possible, and satisfy user necessities at a minimum cost. Several European directives indirectly address mine restoration policies, with a goal of minimizing negative impacts and adding social and environmental value where possible. Water management must consider water sources, ecological flows, flood control, and variability in the demands for urban, industrial, and agricultural uses. In the context of the present study, the city of A Coruña is located in Galicia (NW Spain). The water supply system for this city and surrounding municipalities (~400.000 inhabitants) is based on the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir. In cases when precipitation is scarce (e.g. no rain for more than seven consecutive months) and there is a seasonal increase in demand significantly stress the supply system so that, as occurred in 2010, shortages and water supply restrictions need to be considered. This is a clear indication of that, at present, the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir has not enough capacity to cope with a scenario of increasing water demand (due to the vegetative and seasonal increase of population) and hydric stress likely connected with the widely acknowledged climate change. In the present context of monetary resources scarcity and society concern with respect large new public work projects, the construction of a new dam is challenging. However the opportunity provided by the recent flooding of the Meirama open pit (a large mine void that has been forced-flooded for its reclamation and it is located in the headwaters of one of the rivers draining towards the Abegondo-Cecebre reservoir) proves to be a significant new asset that will help to improve the future water management scenarios under the acknowledged uncertain conditions. In this study we have studied in detail the hydrochemistry of the affected systems (lake, river and reservoir) in order to make clear whether or not the

Decision Making Model for Business Process Outsourcing of Enterprise Content Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhuojun Yi

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Business process outsourcing (BPO in enterprise content management (ECM is a growing though immature market. BPO in ECM focuses on pursuing market transactions in the process of managing all types of content being used in organizations. However, inadequate sourcing decisions lead to organizational sensitive content exposure, high transaction cost, poor outsourcer performance, low flexibility. ECM BPO in general is rarely discussed in the literature and no discussion was found on decision making strategies in ECM BPO. In this paper, we present a decision making model for ECM BPO that will fill the literature gap and guide industry practitioners with ECM sourcing decision making strategies. Our proposed decision making model includes two parts. Part one is an ECM functional framework that shows what functionality component or functionality combinations can be outsourced. Part two is a decision making model that provides guidance for decision making in ECM BPO. We apply the model in two case studies, and the results indicate that the model can guide the sourcing decision making process for organizations, and determine the factors when considering sourcing alternatives in ECM.

Increasing Waterflooding Reservoirs in the Wilmington Oil Field through Improved Reservoir Characterization and Reservoir Management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koerner, Roy; Clarke, Don; Walker, Scott

1999-11-09

The objectives of this quarterly report was to summarize the work conducted under each task during the reporting period April - June 1998 and to report all technical data and findings as specified in the ''Federal Assistance Reporting Checklist''. The main objective of this project is the transfer of technologies, methodologies, and findings developed and applied in this project to other operators of Slope and Basin Clastic Reservoirs. This project will study methods to identify sands with high remaining oil saturation and to recomplete existing wells using advanced completion technology.

Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models

KAUST Repository

Iglesias, Marco A.; Law, Kody J H; Stuart, Andrew M.

2013-01-01

is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based

The multipurpose water use of hydropower reservoir: the SHARE concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Branche, E.

2017-01-01

Multipurpose hydropower reservoirs are designed and/or operated to provide services beyond electricity generation, such as water supply, flood and drought management, irrigation, navigation, fisheries, environmental services and recreational activities, etc. While these objectives (renewable and power services, water quantity management, ecosystem services, economic growth and local livelihoods) can conflict at times, they are also often complementary. Although there are no universal solutions, there are principles that can be shared and adapted to local contexts. Indeed the development and/or operation of such multipurpose hydropower reservoirs to reach sustainable water management should rely on the following principles: shared vision, shared resource, shared responsibilities, shared rights and risks, shared costs and benefits. These principles and acknowledgement of joint sharing among all the stakeholders are essential to successful development and management of multipurpose hydropower reservoirs, and should frame all phases from early stage to operation. The SHARE concept also gives guidance. Based on 12 worldwide case studies of multipurpose hydropower reservoirs, the SHARE concept was developed and proposed as a solution to address this issue. A special focus will be presented on the Durance-Verdon Rivers in France. (author)

Pricing, Variety, and Inventory Decisions in Retail Operations Management

OpenAIRE

Maddah, Bacel

2005-01-01

This dissertation is concerned with decision making in retail operations management. Specifically, we focus on pricing, variety, and inventory decisions, which are at the interface of the marketing and operations functions of a retail firm. We consider two problems that relate to two major types of retail goods. First, we study joint pricing, variety, and inventory decisions for a set of substitutable" items that serve the same need for the consumer (commonly referred to as a "retailer's ...

On-farm irrigation reservoirs for surface water storage in eastern Arkansas: Trends in construction in response to aquifer depletion

Science.gov (United States)

Yaeger, M. A.; Reba, M. L.; Massey, J. H.; Adviento-Borbe, A.

2017-12-01

On-farm surface water storage reservoirs have been constructed to address declines in the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial aquifer, the primary source of irrigation for most of the row crops grown in eastern Arkansas. These reservoirs and their associated infrastructure represent significant investments in financial and natural resources, and may cause producers to incur costs associated with foregone crop production and long-term maintenance. Thus, an analysis of reservoir construction trends in the Grand Prairie Critical Groundwater Area (GPCGA) and Cache River Critical Groundwater Area (CRCGA) was conducted to assist future water management decisions. Between 1996 and 2015, on average, 16 and 4 reservoirs were constructed per year, corresponding to cumulative new reservoir surface areas of 161 and 60 ha yr-1, for the GPCGA and the CRCGA, respectively. In terms of reservoir locations relative to aquifer status, after 1996, 84.5% of 309 total reservoirs constructed in the GPCGA and 91.0% of 78 in the CRCGA were located in areas with remaining saturated aquifer thicknesses of 50% or less. The majority of new reservoirs (74% in the GPCGA and 63% in the CRCGA) were constructed on previously productive cropland. The next most common land use, representing 11% and 15% of new reservoirs constructed in the GPCGA and CRCGA, respectively, was the combination of a field edge and a ditch, stream, or other low-lying area. Less than 10% of post-1996 reservoirs were constructed on predominately low-lying land, and the use of such lands decreased in both critical groundwater areas during the past 20 years. These disparities in reservoir construction rates, locations, and prior land uses is likely due to groundwater declines being first observed in the GPCGA as well as the existence of two large-scale river diversion projects under construction in the GPCGA that feature on-farm storage as a means to offset groundwater use.

Fuzzy rule-based model for hydropower reservoirs operation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moeini, R.; Afshar, A.; Afshar, M.H. [School of Civil Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2011-02-15

Real-time hydropower reservoir operation is a continuous decision-making process of determining the water level of a reservoir or the volume of water released from it. The hydropower operation is usually based on operating policies and rules defined and decided upon in strategic planning. This paper presents a fuzzy rule-based model for the operation of hydropower reservoirs. The proposed fuzzy rule-based model presents a set of suitable operating rules for release from the reservoir based on ideal or target storage levels. The model operates on an 'if-then' principle, in which the 'if' is a vector of fuzzy premises and the 'then' is a vector of fuzzy consequences. In this paper, reservoir storage, inflow, and period are used as premises and the release as the consequence. The steps involved in the development of the model include, construction of membership functions for the inflow, storage and the release, formulation of fuzzy rules, implication, aggregation and defuzzification. The required knowledge bases for the formulation of the fuzzy rules is obtained form a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model with a steady state policy. The proposed model is applied to the hydropower operation of ''Dez'' reservoir in Iran and the results are presented and compared with those of the SDP model. The results indicate the ability of the method to solve hydropower reservoir operation problems. (author)

Multiobjective decision-making in integrated water management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wind, H.G.; Pouwels, I.H.M.; Pouwels, I.H.M.; Witter, V.J.

1995-01-01

Traditionally, decision-making by water authorities in the Netherlands is largely based on intuition. Their tasks were, after all, relatively few and straight-forward. The growing number of tasks, together with the new integrated approach on water management issues, however, induces water

Reservoir characterization of Pennsylvanian sandstone reservoirs. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kelkar, M.

1995-02-01

This final report summarizes the progress during the three years of a project on Reservoir Characterization of Pennsylvanian Sandstone Reservoirs. The report is divided into three sections: (i) reservoir description; (ii) scale-up procedures; (iii) outcrop investigation. The first section describes the methods by which a reservoir can be described in three dimensions. The next step in reservoir description is to scale up reservoir properties for flow simulation. The second section addresses the issue of scale-up of reservoir properties once the spatial descriptions of properties are created. The last section describes the investigation of an outcrop.

Functional age as an indicator of reservoir senescence

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda, Leandro E.; Krogman, R. M.

2015-01-01

It has been conjectured that reservoirs differ in the rate at which they manifest senescence, but no attempt has been made to find an indicator of senescence that performs better than chronological age. We assembled an indicator of functional age by creating a multimetric scale consisting of 10 metrics descriptive of reservoir environments that were expected to change directionally with reservoir senescence. In a sample of 1,022 U.S. reservoirs, chronological age was not correlated with functional age. Functional age was directly related to percentage of cultivated land in the catchment and inversely related to reservoir depth. Moreover, aspects of reservoir fishing quality and fish population characteristics were related to functional age. A multimetric scale to indicate reservoir functional age presents the possibility for management intervention from multiple angles. If a reservoir is functionally aging at an accelerated rate, action may be taken to remedy the conditions contributing most to functional age. Intervention to reduce scores of selected metrics in the scale can potentially reduce the rate of senescence and increase the life expectancy of the reservoir. This leads to the intriguing implication that steps can be taken to reduce functional age and actually make the reservoir grow younger.

Predicting petrophysical properties by simultaneous inversion of seismic and reservoir engineering data

Science.gov (United States)

Mantilla, Andres Eduardo

Porosity and permeability are the most difficult properties to determine in subsurface reservoir characterization, yet usually they have the largest impact on reserves and production forecasts, and consequently on the economy of a project. The difficulty of estimating them comes from the fact that porosity and permeability may vary significantly over the reservoir volume, but can only be sampled at well locations, often using different technologies at different scales of observation. An accurate estimation of the spatial distribution of porosity and permeability is of key importance, because it translates into higher success rates in infill drilling, and fewer wells required for draining the reservoir. The purpose of this thesis is to enhance the characterization of subsurface reservoirs by improving the prediction of petrophysical properties through the combination of reservoir geophysics and reservoir engineering observations and models. To fulfill this goal, I take advantage of the influence that petrophysical properties have on seismic and production data, and formulate, implement, and demonstrate the applicability of an inversion approach that integrates seismic and production-related observations with a-priori information about porosity and permeability. Being constrained by physical models and observations, the resulting estimates are appropriate for making reservoir management decisions. I use synthetic models to test the proposed inversion approach. Results from these tests show that, because of the excellent spatial coverage of seismic data, incorporating seismic-derived attributes related to petrophysical properties can significantly improve the estimates of porosity and permeability. The results also highlight the importance of using a-priori information about the relationship between porosity and permeability. The last chapters of this thesis describe a practical application of the proposed joint inversion approach. This application includes a rock

SWOT data assimilation for operational reservoir management on the upper Niger River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Munier, S.; Polebistki, A.; Brown, C.; Belaud, G.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2015-01-01

The future Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will provide two-dimensional maps of water elevation for rivers with width greater than 100 m globally. We describe a modeling framework and an automatic control algorithm that prescribe optimal releases from the Selingue dam in the Upper Niger River Basin, with the objective of understanding how SWOT data might be used to the benefit of operational water management. The modeling framework was used in a twin experiment to simulate the "true" system state and an ensemble of corrupted model states. Virtual SWOT observations of reservoir and river levels were assimilated into the model with a repeat cycle of 21 days. The updated state was used to initialize a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm that computed the optimal reservoir release that meets a minimum flow requirement 300 km downstream of the dam. The data assimilation results indicate that the model updates had a positive effect on estimates of both water level and discharge. The "persistence," which describes the duration of the assimilation effect, was clearly improved (greater than 21 days) by integrating a smoother into the assimilation procedure. We compared performances of the MPC with SWOT data assimilation to an open-loop MPC simulation. Results show that the data assimilation resulted in substantial improvements in the performances of the Selingue dam management with a greater ability to meet environmental requirements (the number of days the target is missed falls to zero) and a minimum volume of water released from the dam.

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rasoul Yousefpour

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1 take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2 evaluate alternative management decisions: the "no-change," the "reactive," the "trend-adaptive," and the "forward-looking adaptive" decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.

How seasonal forecast could help a decision maker: an example of climate service for water resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Viel, Christian; Beaulant, Anne-Lise; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel; Céron, Jean-Pierre

2016-04-01

The FP7 project EUPORIAS was a great opportunity for the climate community to co-design with stakeholders some original and innovative climate services at seasonal time scales. In this framework, Météo-France proposed a prototype that aimed to provide to water resource managers some tailored information to better anticipate the coming season. It is based on a forecasting system, built on a refined hydrological suite, forced by a coupled seasonal forecast model. It particularly delivers probabilistic river flow prediction on river basins all over the French territory. This paper presents the work we have done with "EPTB Seine Grands Lacs" (EPTB SGL), an institutional stakeholder in charge of the management of 4 great reservoirs on the upper Seine Basin. First, we present the co-design phase, which means the translation of classical climate outputs into several indices, relevant to influence the stakeholder's decision making process (DMP). And second, we detail the evaluation of the impact of the forecast on the DMP. This evaluation is based on an experiment realised in collaboration with the stakeholder. Concretely EPTB SGL has replayed some past decisions, in three different contexts: without any forecast, with a forecast A and with a forecast B. One of forecast A and B really contained seasonal forecast, the other only contained random forecasts taken from past climate. This placebo experiment, realised in a blind test, allowed us to calculate promising skill scores of the DMP based on seasonal forecast in comparison to a classical approach based on climatology, and to EPTG SGL current practice.

Information identification, evaluation and utilisation for decision-making by managers in South West Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omotola Osunrinde

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Managers’ organisational decisions and subsequent actions flow from their understanding of the business environment in which they operate. This study sought to understand how managers in various organisations identify, evaluate and use information for effective current and future decision-making. Objectives: The study focused on the types of information needed by managers for decision-making, the methods used to identify and acquire the information and the sources of information consulted, their satisfaction with the information used and their decision-making behaviours. Methods: The study employed descriptive study design. Simple random sampling was used. A pre-tested self-administered questionnaire was used to gather information from 219 managers, randomly selected from the registers of the Ibadan, Abeokuta and Lagos chapters of Nigerian Institute of Management. Results: Results indicated that the types of information considered very important for decision-making included industry information followed by government policies and economic development/forecasts. Conclusion: Investigation revealed the extent of information identification, information evaluation and information utilisation individually predict the perceived effectiveness of decision-making by the managers. Nevertheless, information evaluation was found to have greater predictive relationship with perceived effectiveness of decision-making than information use and information identification.

灰色随机多准则的水库洪水调度群决策方法及应用%Decision making method of grey random reservoir flood dispatching multiple criterion group and its application

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

申海; 解建仓; 李建勋; 李维乾

2012-01-01

【目的】建立基于灰色随机多准则的群决策方法，为处理水库洪水调度决策中的不确定信息提供参考。【方法】利用区间数可能度将水库当前所处状态的区间概率转化为点概率，结合区间偏好的群集结法，将概率为区间数、准则值为区间灰数的灰色随机多准则水库洪水调度问题转化为无风险决策问题，计算各备选方案在正负理想方案上的灰色隶属度，以及方案准则值的加权相对灰度，根据区间灰数公式对决策方案进行排序，建立基于灰色随机多准则的水库洪水调度群决策方法。【结果】实例计算表明，该方法有效地解决了水库洪水调度中概率为区间数、准则值为区间灰数的灰色随机多准则问题。【结论】所构建的基于灰色随机多准则的群决策方法，具有一定的有效性和合理性，为水库洪水合理、科学的调度提供了一条有效途径。%[Objective] The study was to establish a group decision method based on the grey random many criteria, so as to provide important decision basis for dealing with uncertain information in reservoir flood dispatching decision-making. [Method] The reservoir interval probability in the current state turn in- to point probability through interval number possibility degree. Combining with the assembly group meth- ods of interval preference, the probability of the reservoir flood dispatching based on grey random many standards was interval number. The criterion value of the reservoir flood dispatching based on grey random many standards was interval grey number. These questions had been turned into no risk decision problem. We calculated the grey membership of the different schemes on idea scheme, and weighted grey relatively of scheme criterion value. The different schemes would go in order according to interval grey number formula. Determining method of effective reservoir flood dispatching decision making was

How customer relationship management influences making better decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Izadi Manesh

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Customers are the primary sources of making appropriate decisions and their feedbacks normally help us improve the quality of systems. In this paper, we present an empirical study to detect important factors influencing managers of banking industry make better decisions. The proposed study designs a questionnaire in Likert scale consists of 32 questions, distributes it among some bank managers. Cronbach alpha is calculated as 0.805. In addition, Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy and Approx. Chi-Square are 0.701 and 1675, respectively. Based on the results of our survey, we have derived nine factors including customers’ welfare strategy, systems integration, organizational culture assessment, corporate strategies, organizational development, intelligence data strategies, supporting strategies, resource planning as well as research and development.

Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Driscoll, Don A; Bode, Michael; Bradstock, Ross A; Keith, David A; Penman, Trent D; Price, Owen F

2016-02-01

Management strategies to reduce the risks to human life and property from wildfire commonly involve burning native vegetation. However, planned burning can conflict with other societal objectives such as human health and biodiversity conservation. These conflicts are likely to intensify as fire regimes change under future climates and as growing human populations encroach farther into fire-prone ecosystems. Decisions about managing fire risks are therefore complex and warrant more sophisticated approaches than are typically used. We applied a multicriteria decision making approach (MCDA) with the potential to improve fire management outcomes to the case of a highly populated, biodiverse, and flammable wildland-urban interface. We considered the effects of 22 planned burning options on 8 objectives: house protection, maximizing water quality, minimizing carbon emissions and impacts on human health, and minimizing declines of 5 distinct species types. The MCDA identified a small number of management options (burning forest adjacent to houses) that performed well for most objectives, but not for one species type (arboreal mammal) or for water quality. Although MCDA made the conflict between objectives explicit, resolution of the problem depended on the weighting assigned to each objective. Additive weighting of criteria traded off the arboreal mammal and water quality objectives for other objectives. Multiplicative weighting identified scenarios that avoided poor outcomes for any objective, which is important for avoiding potentially irreversible biodiversity losses. To distinguish reliably among management options, future work should focus on reducing uncertainty in outcomes across a range of objectives. Considering management actions that have more predictable outcomes than landscape fuel management will be important. We found that, where data were adequate, an MCDA can support decision making in the complex and often conflicted area of fire management. © 2015

Nurse managers' decision-making in daily unit operation in peri-operative settings: a cross-sectional descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Siirala, Eriikka; Peltonen, Laura-Maria; Lundgrén-Laine, Heljä; Salanterä, Sanna; Junttila, Kristiina

2016-09-01

To describe the tactical and the operational decisions made by nurse managers when managing the daily unit operation in peri-operative settings. Management is challenging as situations change rapidly and decisions are constantly made. Understanding decision-making in this complex environment helps to develop decision support systems to support nurse managers' operative and tactical decision-making. Descriptive cross-sectional design. Data were collected from 20 nurse managers with the think-aloud method during the busiest working hours and analysed using thematic content analysis. Nurse managers made over 700 decisions; either ad hoc (n = 289), near future (n = 268) or long-term (n = 187) by nature. Decisions were often made simultaneously with many interruptions. Ad hoc decisions covered staff allocation, ensuring adequate staff, rescheduling surgical procedures, confirmation tangible resources and following-up the daily unit operation. Decisions in the near future were: planning of surgical procedures and tangible resources, and planning staff allocation. Long-term decisions were: human recourses, nursing development, supplies and equipment, and finances in the unit. Decision-making was vulnerable to interruptions, which sometimes complicated the managing tasks. The results can be used when planning decision support systems and when defining the nurse managers' tasks in peri-operative settings. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A novel sustainable decision making model for municipal solid waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hung, M.-L.; Ma Hwongwen; Yang, W.-F.

2007-01-01

This paper reviews several models developed to support decision making in municipal solid waste management (MSWM). The concepts underlying sustainable MSWM models can be divided into two categories: one incorporates social factors into decision making methods, and the other includes public participation in the decision-making process. The public is only apprised or takes part in discussion, and has little effect on decision making in most research efforts. Few studies have considered public participation in the decision-making process, and the methods have sought to strike a compromise between concerned criteria, not between stakeholders. However, the source of the conflict arises from the stakeholders' complex web of value. Such conflict affects the feasibility of implementing any decision. The purpose of this study is to develop a sustainable decision making model for MSWM to overcome these shortcomings. The proposed model combines multicriteria decision making (MCDM) and a consensus analysis model (CAM). The CAM is built up to aid in decision-making when MCDM methods are utilized and, subsequently, a novel sustainable decision making model for MSWM is developed. The main feature of CAM is the assessment of the degree of consensus between stakeholders for particular alternatives. A case study for food waste management in Taiwan is presented to demonstrate the practicality of this model

Navigating Sustainability Embeddedness in Management Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine Le Roux

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Sustainability is an essential theme for business. In order to compete, strategies need to be improvised and efficient and effective decisions need to be made for improved sustainability performance. Despite management’s apparent knowledge of this, it appears that challenges persist with sustainability’s embeddedness in decision-making and its implementation in practice. In this study we propose a metaphor applying an integrative view of sustainability as support for management. We offer six antecedents of sustainability embeddedness in decision-making that contribute to building and confirming theory, and also provide a better understanding of current practice around sustainability embeddedness so that strategies can be developed for improved sustainability performance. Employees on all management levels in a stock exchange listed company provided rich empirical data for the study. Through the analysis of data in a case study, antecedents were inductively identified, conceptualized, and presented as using descriptive labels, namely: A True North Destination—a vision of sustainability embeddedness; Mountains—three obstacles; Fog—confusion and complexity; Myopia—shortsightedness; Navigation Necessities—requirements for the journey; and finally, the Chosen Team—selected stakeholders. Sustainability embeddedness was found to be dependent on leadership, the strategy message and structures, performance measures, and policies that support a unified culture for sustainability embeddedness.

Intelligent Decision Support and Big Data for Logistics and Supply Chain Management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Voss, Stefan; Sebastian, Hans-Jürgen; Pahl, Julia

2017-01-01

Intelligent Decision Support and Big Data for Logistics and Supply Chain Management” features theoretical developments, real-world applications and information systems related to solving decision problems in logistics and supply chain management. Methods include optimization, heuristics, metaheur......Intelligent Decision Support and Big Data for Logistics and Supply Chain Management” features theoretical developments, real-world applications and information systems related to solving decision problems in logistics and supply chain management. Methods include optimization, heuristics......, metaheuristics and matheuristics, simulation, agent technologies, and descriptive methods. In a sense, we were and are representing the future of logistics over the years....

Use of isotopes techniques during the life cycle of dams and reservoirs: cases in Latin American

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leon, S.H.

2006-01-01

In fact, the combined use of isotope and conventional techniques is considered a reliable tool for studying problems related to dam safety and has become a new culture for civil / dam engineers, hydro geologists and researchers who involve in water resource management fields. The use of natural (environmental) and artificial isotopes as tracers together with systematic analyses of the hydrochemistry, electrical conductivity and temperature profiles data during the investigation and monitoring of leakage and seepage in dams and reservoirs are now becoming popular among the dam owners in seeking the best solution for dam related problems. Many studies and experiences worldwide on effective dam management programmes have indicated that any investigation about leakages and seepages are not possible to be accomplished successfully without synergic application of the conventional technologies and isotopic techniques. The major advancement in this area is the measurements study for establishment of baseline hydrogeology at each hydraulic work project like dams and reservoirs. The parameters include hydro chemicals, isotopic and geologic in each basin, river, reservoir, dams, tunnels and groundwater which provide high value information for decision making during all the stages in the life cycle of the dams. Many hydroelectric and water supply projects in latin america apply these investigation strategies. The main target is to investigate and understand the water movement around the dam and its vicinity. Then the specialised work teams will decide for the effective and economic monitoring activities and the implementation of the recommended remedial measures to ensure high standards of safety and security of the large dams and reservoirs. A typical example of specific leakage investigation of la Honda dam is briefly discussed. (Author)

Managing costs, managing benefits: employer decisions in local health care markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Christianson, Jon B; Trude, Sally

2003-02-01

To better understand employer health benefit decision making, how employer health benefits strategies evolve over time, and the impact of employer decisions on local health care systems. Data were collected as part of the Community Tracking Study (CTS), a longitudinal analysis of health system change in 12 randomly selected communities. This is an observational study with data collection over a six-year period. The study used semistructured interviews with local respondents, combined with monitoring of local media, to track changes in health care systems over time and their impact on community residents. Interviewing began in 1996 and was carried out at two-year intervals, with a total of approximately 2,200 interviews. The interviews provided a variety of perspectives on employer decision making concerning health benefits; these perspectives were triangulated to reach conclusions. The tight labor market during the study period was the dominant consideration in employer decision making regarding health benefits. Employers, in managing employee compensation, made independent decisions in pursuit of individual goals, but these decisions were shaped by similar labor market conditions. As a result, within and across our study sites, employer decisions in aggregate had an important impact on local health care systems, although employers' more highly visible public efforts to bring about health system change often met with disappointing results. General economic conditions in the 1990s had an important impact on the configuration of local health systems through their effect on employer decision making regarding health benefits offered to employees, and the responses of health plans and providers to those decisions.

Mercury and methylmercury in reservoirs in Indiana

Science.gov (United States)

Risch, Martin R.; Fredericksen, Amanda L.

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is an element that occurs naturally, but evidence suggests that human activities have resulted in increased amounts being released to the atmosphere and land surface. When Hg is converted to methylmercury (MeHg) in aquatic ecosystems, MeHg accumulates and increases in the food web so that some fish contain levels which pose a health risk to humans and wildlife that consume these fish. Reservoirs unlike natural lakes, are a part of river systems that are managed for flood control. Data compiled and interpreted for six flood-control reservoirs in Indiana showed a relation between Hg transport, MeHg formation in water, and MeHg in fish that was influenced by physical, chemical, and biological differences among the reservoirs. Existing information precludes a uniform comparison of Hg and MeHg in all reservoirs in the State, but factors and conditions were identified that can indicate where and when Hg and MeHg levels in reservoirs could be highest.

Mathematical and field analysis of longitudinal reservoir infill

Science.gov (United States)

Ke, W. T.; Capart, H.

2016-12-01

In reservoirs, severe problems are caused by infilled sediment deposits. In long term, the sediment accumulation reduces the capacity of reservoir storage and flood control benefits. In the short term, the sediment deposits influence the intakes of water-supply and hydroelectricity generation. For the management of reservoir, it is important to understand the deposition process and then to predict the sedimentation in reservoir. To investigate the behaviors of sediment deposits, we propose a one-dimensional simplified theory derived by the Exner equation to predict the longitudinal sedimentation distribution in idealized reservoirs. The theory models the reservoir infill geomorphic actions for three scenarios: delta progradation, near-dam bottom deposition, and final infill. These yield three kinds of self-similar analytical solutions for the reservoir bed profiles, under different boundary conditions. Three analytical solutions are composed by error function, complementary error function, and imaginary error function, respectively. The theory is also computed by finite volume method to test the analytical solutions. The theoretical and numerical predictions are in good agreement with one-dimensional small-scale laboratory experiment. As the theory is simple to apply with analytical solutions and numerical computation, we propose some applications to simulate the long-profile evolution of field reservoirs and focus on the infill sediment deposit volume resulting the uplift of near-dam bottom elevation. These field reservoirs introduced here are Wushe Reservoir, Tsengwen Reservoir, Mudan Reservoir in Taiwan, Lago Dos Bocas in Puerto Rico, and Sakuma Dam in Japan.

Game Methods of Collective Decision Making in Management Consulting.

Science.gov (United States)

Prigozhin, Arkadii Il'ich

1991-01-01

Explores former Soviet management consultants' increased use of social psychological game methods. Identifies such games as means of involving segments of client organizations in accomplishing shared tasks. Proposes a "practical" business game, designed to shape the process of formulating new management decisions at a radical level.…

A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanan, Deirdre [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Burnley, Stephen, E-mail: s.j.burnley@open.ac.uk [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom); Cooke, David [Department of Design, Development, Environment and Materials, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA (United Kingdom)

2013-03-15

Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making.

A multi-criteria decision analysis assessment of waste paper management options

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanan, Deirdre; Burnley, Stephen; Cooke, David

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Isolated communities have particular problems in terms of waste management. ► An MCDA tool allowed a group of non-experts to evaluate waste management options. ► The group preferred local waste management solutions to export to the mainland. ► Gasification of paper was the preferred option followed by recycling. ► The group concluded that they could be involved in the decision making process. - Abstract: The use of Multi-criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was investigated in an exercise using a panel of local residents and stakeholders to assess the options for managing waste paper on the Isle of Wight. Seven recycling, recovery and disposal options were considered by the panel who evaluated each option against seven environmental, financial and social criteria. The panel preferred options where the waste was managed on the island with gasification and recycling achieving the highest scores. Exporting the waste to the English mainland for incineration or landfill proved to be the least preferred options. This research has demonstrated that MCDA is an effective way of involving community groups in waste management decision making

Merkel cell carcinoma: An algorithm for multidisciplinary management and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Prieto, Isabel; Pérez de la Fuente, Teresa; Medina, Susana; Castelo, Beatriz; Sobrino, Beatriz; Fortes, Jose R; Esteban, David; Cassinello, Fernando; Jover, Raquel; Rodríguez, Nuria

2016-02-01

Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare and aggressive neuroendocrine tumor of the skin. Therapeutic approach is often unclear, and considerable controversy exists regarding MCC pathogenesis and optimal management. Due to its rising incidence and poor prognosis, it is imperative to establish the optimal therapy for both the tumor and the lymph node basin, and for treatment to include sentinel node biopsy. Sentinel node biopsy is currently the most consistent predictor of survival for MCC patients, although there are conflicting views and a lack of awareness regarding node management. Tumor and node management involve different specialists, and their respective decisions and interventions are interrelated. No effective systemic treatment has been made available to date, and therefore patients continue to experience distant failure, often without local failure. This review aims to improve multidisciplinary decision-making by presenting scientific evidence of the contributions of each team member implicated in MCC management. Following this review of previously published research, the authors conclude that multidisciplinary team management is beneficial for care, and propose a multidisciplinary decision algorithm for managing this tumor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sport Management Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy

Science.gov (United States)

Lumpkin, Angela; Franco, Dan; Multon, Karen; Achen, Rebecca M.

2017-01-01

Grounded in a social cognitive theoretical perspective, this study explores the career decision-making self-efficacy (CDSE) and vocational identity development process for college students interested or majoring in sport management. While a popular undergraduate major, little research has investigated the specific factors that influence different…

Risk and uncertainty in the structure of management decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valeca, Serban Constantin

2002-01-01

The monograph is structured into five chapters addressing the following subject matters: 1 - The risk descriptor implied by the power systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 - Concepts and operators for describing the nuclear power risk; 1.2 - Risk approach in a holistic conception; 2 - Modelling the risk in the frame of re-engineering concept; 2.1 - Defining and interpreting the power re-engineering; 2.2 - Managerial re-engineering of power production systems; 3 - Informatics system of managing the power objectives with nuclear injection; 3.1 - Informatics systems for risk at the level of CANDU - 600 nuclear plant; 3.2. - Expert function structure applicable to the management of power objectives with nuclear injection; 4 - Assisting support in the operation of nuclear facilities; 4.1 - Assisting support system for nuclear plant operation; 4.2 - Program products for dedicated drivers; 5 - The management decision activities at the level of power systems with nuclear injection; 5.1 - Preliminaries in making power decision; 5.2 - Applications of decision models of sustainable power systems with nuclear injection; 5.3 - Re-engineering of power decision in the frame of maximal utility theory. The successful application of re-engineering concept is based on knowledge and managing capacity of design leadership and its ability of dealing the error generating sources. The main stages of implementing successfully the re-engineering are: - Replacing the pollution processes instead of adjusting measures; - Raising the designer responsibility by radical innovation of processes' architecture; - Re-designing the processes by basic changes at the level of the management functions and structures; - Raising the personnel professionalism by motivation as optimal way of improving the workers mentalities; - Accurate definition of objectives in the frame of re-engineering program; - Application of re-engineering in industrial units starting from the management level; - Selecting as general

Cloud computing and Reservoir project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beco, S.; Maraschini, A.; Pacini, F.; Biran, O.

2009-01-01

The support for complex services delivery is becoming a key point in current internet technology. Current trends in internet applications are characterized by on demand delivery of ever growing amounts of content. The future internet of services will have to deliver content intensive applications to users with quality of service and security guarantees. This paper describes the Reservoir project and the challenge of a reliable and effective delivery of services as utilities in a commercial scenario. It starts by analyzing the needs of a future infrastructure provider and introducing the key concept of a service oriented architecture that combines virtualisation-aware grid with grid-aware virtualisation, while being driven by business service management. This article will then focus on the benefits and the innovations derived from the Reservoir approach. Eventually, a high level view of Reservoir general architecture is illustrated.

An Evaluation of Feral Cat Management Options Using a Decision Analysis Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kerrie Anne T. Loyd

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The feral domestic cat (Felis catus is a predatory invasive species with documented negative effects on native wildlife. The issue of appropriate and acceptable feral cat management is a matter of contentious debate in cities and states across the United States due to concerns for wildlife conservation, cat welfare, and public health. Common management strategies include: Trap-Neuter-Release, Trap-Neuter-Release with removal of kittens for adoption and Trap-Euthanize. Very little empirical evidence exists relevant to the efficacy of alternative options and a model-based approach is needed to predict population response and extend calculations to impact on wildlife. We have created a structured decision support model representing multiple stakeholder groups to facilitate the coordinated management of feral cats. We used a probabilistic graphical model (a Bayesian Belief Network to evaluate and rank alternative management decisions according to efficacy, societal preferences, and cost. Our model predicts that Trap-Neuter-Release strategies would be optimal management decisions for small local populations of less than fifty cats while Trap-Euthanize would be the optimal management decision for populations greater than 50 cats. Removal is predicted to reduce feral cat populations quickly and prevent cats from taking a large number of wildlife prey.

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

2017-01-01

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

Hydrology and Mosquito Population Dynamics around a Hydropower Reservoir in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Endo, N.; Eltahir, E. A.

2013-12-01

Malaria is associated with dams because their reservoirs provide mosquitoes, the vector of malaria, with permanent breeding sites. The risk of contracting malaria is likely to be enhanced following the increasing trend of hydropower dam construction to satisfy the expanding energy needs in developing countries. A close examination of its adverse health impacts is critical in the design, construction, and operation phases. We will present results of extensive field studies in 2012 and 2013 around the Koka Reservoir, Ethiopia. The results uncover the importance of reservoir management especially after the rainy seasons. Furthermore, we show the capability of a newly modified hydrology, entomology and malaria transmission simulator, HYDREMATS (Bomblies et al, 2008), and its potential as a tool for evaluating environmental management strategies to control malaria. HYDREMATS was developed to represent how the hydrology in nearby villages is impacted by the reservoir system, and the role of different types of vector ecologies associated with different Anopheles mosquito species. The hydrology component of HYDREMATS simulates three different mosquito breeding habitats: rain-fed pools, groundwater pools, and shoreline water. The entomology component simulates the life cycles of An. funestus and An. arabiensis, the two main vectors around the reservoir. The model was calibrated over the 2012-2013 period. The impact of reservoir water level management on the mosquito population is explored based on numerical model simulations and field experiments.

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

Science.gov (United States)

Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

2013-01-01

Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matteo Convertino

Full Text Available Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

Science.gov (United States)

Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

2013-01-01

Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of

The impact of management science on political decision making

Science.gov (United States)

White, M. J.

1971-01-01

The possible impact on public policy and organizational decision making of operations research/management science (OR/MS) is discussed. Criticisms based on the assumption that OR/MS will have influence on decision making and criticisms based on the assumption that it will have no influence are described. New directions in the analysis of analysis and in thinking about policy making are also considered.

An Exploratory Study Investigating How and Why Managers Use Tablets to Support Managerial Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Xiao

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Managers are often mobile and a large proportion of their work is dealing with decisions. Although many managers currently use tablet computers in their work, there is little research on the use of tablets for managerial decision-support. This exploratory study aims to investigate the ways in which managers use tablets to support their decision-making and the reasons why they do so. Using Task-Technology Fit theory, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 20 managers, 17 of whom used tablets for their work-related decision-making. The study reveals managers’ tablet usage patterns in terms of location, tablet applications, decision activities and types. This study has also found that a range of tablet characteristics and decision-task characteristics affect managers’ use of tablets to support decision-making at work. This exploratory study contributes to both academia and industry by providing evidence on the tablet decision-support area, and affording organisations, tablet vendors and tablet application developers informative findings for further improvement in the provision of tablet-based decision support.

The value of precision for image-based decision support in weed management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Franco de los Ríos, Camilo; Pedersen, Søren Marcus; Papaharalampos, Haris

2017-01-01

Decision support methodologies in precision agriculture should integrate the different dimensions composing the added complexity of operational decision problems. Special attention has to be given to the adequate knowledge extraction techniques for making sense of the collected data, processing...... the information for assessing decision makers and farmers in the efficient and sustainable management of the field. Focusing on weed management, the integration of operational aspects for weed spraying is an open challenge for modeling the farmers’ decision problem, identifying satisfactory solutions...... for the implementation of automatic weed recognition procedures. The objective of this paper is to develop a decision support methodology for detecting the undesired weed from aerial images, building an image-based viewpoint consisting in relevant operational knowledge for applying precision spraying. In this way...

Evaluating changes to reservoir rule curves using historical water-level data

Science.gov (United States)

Mower, Ethan; Miranda, Leandro E.

2013-01-01

Flood control reservoirs are typically managed through rule curves (i.e. target water levels) which control the storage and release timing of flood waters. Changes to rule curves are often contemplated and requested by various user groups and management agencies with no information available about the actual flood risk of such requests. Methods of estimating flood risk in reservoirs are not easily available to those unfamiliar with hydrological models that track water movement through a river basin. We developed a quantile regression model that uses readily available daily water-level data to estimate risk of spilling. Our model provided a relatively simple process for estimating the maximum applicable water level under a specific flood risk for any day of the year. This water level represents an upper-limit umbrella under which water levels can be operated in a variety of ways. Our model allows the visualization of water-level management under a user-specified flood risk and provides a framework for incorporating the effect of a changing environment on water-level management in reservoirs, but is not designed to replace existing hydrological models. The model can improve communication and collaboration among agencies responsible for managing natural resources dependent on reservoir water levels.

A reservoir morphology database for the conterminous United States

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Kirk D.

2017-09-13

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Reservoir Fisheries Habitat Partnership, combined multiple national databases to create one comprehensive national reservoir database and to calculate new morphological metrics for 3,828 reservoirs. These new metrics include, but are not limited to, shoreline development index, index of basin permanence, development of volume, and other descriptive metrics based on established morphometric formulas. The new database also contains modeled chemical and physical metrics. Because of the nature of the existing databases used to compile the Reservoir Morphology Database and the inherent missing data, some metrics were not populated. One comprehensive database will assist water-resource managers in their understanding of local reservoir morphology and water chemistry characteristics throughout the continental United States.

Waste Acceptance Decisions and Uncertainty Analysis at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redus, K. S.; Patterson, J. E.; Hampshire, G. L.; Perkins, A. B.

2003-01-01

The Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Attainment Team (AT) routinely provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Operations with Go/No-Go decisions associated with the disposition of over 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous waste. This supply of waste comes from 60+ environmental restoration projects over the next 15 years planned to be dispositioned at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). The EMWMF WAC AT decision making process is accomplished in four ways: (1) ensure a clearly defined mission and timeframe for accomplishment is established, (2) provide an effective organization structure with trained personnel, (3) have in place a set of waste acceptance decisions and Data Quality Objectives (DQO) for which quantitative measures are required, and (4) use validated risk-based forecasting, decision support, and modeling/simulation tools. We provide a summary of WAC AT structure and performance. We offer suggestions based on lessons learned for effective transfer to other DOE

Waste Acceptance Decisions and Uncertainty Analysis at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Redus, K. S.; Patterson, J. E.; Hampshire, G. L.; Perkins, A. B.

2003-02-25

The Waste Acceptance Criteria (WAC) Attainment Team (AT) routinely provides the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Operations with Go/No-Go decisions associated with the disposition of over 1.8 million yd3 of low-level radioactive, TSCA, and RCRA hazardous waste. This supply of waste comes from 60+ environmental restoration projects over the next 15 years planned to be dispositioned at the Oak Ridge Environmental Management Waste Management Facility (EMWMF). The EMWMF WAC AT decision making process is accomplished in four ways: (1) ensure a clearly defined mission and timeframe for accomplishment is established, (2) provide an effective organization structure with trained personnel, (3) have in place a set of waste acceptance decisions and Data Quality Objectives (DQO) for which quantitative measures are required, and (4) use validated risk-based forecasting, decision support, and modeling/simulation tools. We provide a summary of WAC AT structure and performance. We offer suggestions based on lessons learned for effective transfer to other DOE.

Public involvement in radioactive waste management decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-04-01

Current repository siting efforts focus on Yucca Mountain, Nevada, where DOE's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is conducting exploratory studies to determine if the site is suitable. The state of Nevada has resisted these efforts: it has denied permits, brought suit against DOE, and publicly denounced the federal government's decision to study Yucca Mountain. The state's opposition reflects public opinion in Nevada, and has considerably slowed DOE's progress in studying the site. The Yucca Mountain controversy demonstrates the importance of understanding public attitudes and their potential influence as DOE develops a program to manage radioactive waste. The strength and nature of Nevada's opposition -- its ability to thwart if not outright derail DOE's activities -- indicate a need to develop alternative methods for making decisions that affect the public. This report analyzes public participation as a key component of this openness, one that provides a means of garnering acceptance of, or reducing public opposition to, DOE's radioactive waste management activities, including facility siting and transportation. The first section, Public Perceptions: Attitudes, Trust, and Theory, reviews the risk-perception literature to identify how the public perceives the risks associated with radioactivity. DOE and the Public discusses DOE's low level of credibility among the general public as the product, in part, of the department's past actions. This section looks at the three components of the radioactive waste management program -- disposal, storage, and transportation -- and the different ways DOE has approached the problem of public confidence in each case. Midwestern Radioactive Waste Management Histories focuses on selected Midwestern facility-siting and transportation activities involving radioactive materials

Limno-reservoirs as a new landscape, environmental and touristic resource: Pareja Limno-reservoir as a case of study (Guadalajara, Spain)

Science.gov (United States)

Díaz-Carrión, I.; Sastre-Merlín, A.; Martínez-Pérez, S.; Molina-Navarro, E.; Bienes-Allas, R.

2012-04-01

A limno-reservoir is a hydrologic infrastructure with the main goal of generating a body of water with a constant level in the riverine zone of a reservoir, building a dam that makes de limno-reservoir independent from the main body of water. This dam can be built in the main river supplying the reservoir or any tributary as well flowing into it. Despite its novel conception and design, around a dozen are already operative in some Spanish reservoirs. This infrastructure allows the new water body to be independent of the main reservoir management, so the water level stability is its main distinctive characteristic. It leads to the development of environmental, sports and cultural initiatives; which may be included in a touristic exploitation in a wide sense. An opinion poll was designed in 2009 to be carried out the Pareja Limno-reservoir (Entrepeñas reservoir area, Tajo River Basin, central Spain). The results showed that for both, Pareja inhabitants and occasional visitors, the limno-reservoir has become an important touristic resource, mainly demanded during summer season. The performance of leisure activities (especially swimming) are being the main brand of this novel hydraulic and environmental infrastructure, playing a role as corrective and/or compensatory action which is needed to apply in order to mitigate the environmental impacts of the large hydraulic constructions.

Arm (Advanced Reservoir Management Vs. Eor Gestion avancée de réservoir contre récupération assistée des hydrocarbures (RAH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chierici G. L.

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Advanced Reservoir Management (ARM techniques aimed at a better reservoir coverage by injected fluid(s through the improvement of interwell connectivity and recourse to gravity drainage are shown to have a better chance than EOR techniques in improving oil recovery with satisfactory economic results. Les techniques de gestion avancée de réservoir (ARM, Advanced Reservoir Management visant une meilleure couverture du réservoir par les fluides injectés grâce à l'amélioration des interconnexions entre les puits et au recours au drainage par gravité semblent offrir plus de possibilités que les techniques de RAH, pour améliorer la récupération du pétrole dans de bonnes conditions économiques.

Geothermal Reservoir Technology Research Program: Abstracts of selected research projects

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reed, M.J. (ed.)

1993-03-01

Research projects are described in the following areas: geothermal exploration, mapping reservoir properties and reservoir monitoring, and well testing, simulation, and predicting reservoir performance. The objectives, technical approach, and project status of each project are presented. The background, research results, and future plans for each project are discussed. The names, addresses, and telephone and telefax numbers are given for the DOE program manager and the principal investigators. (MHR)

An Integrated Web-based Decision Support System in Disaster Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Aye, Z. C.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Derron, M. H.

2012-04-01

Nowadays, web based decision support systems (DSS) play an essential role in disaster risk management because of their supporting abilities which help the decision makers to improve their performances and make better decisions without needing to solve complex problems while reducing human resources and time. Since the decision making process is one of the main factors which highly influence the damages and losses of society, it is extremely important to make right decisions at right time by combining available risk information with advanced web technology of Geographic Information System (GIS) and Decision Support System (DSS). This paper presents an integrated web-based decision support system (DSS) of how to use risk information in risk management efficiently and effectively while highlighting the importance of a decision support system in the field of risk reduction. Beyond the conventional systems, it provides the users to define their own strategies starting from risk identification to the risk reduction, which leads to an integrated approach in risk management. In addition, it also considers the complexity of changing environment from different perspectives and sectors with diverse stakeholders' involvement in the development process. The aim of this platform is to contribute a part towards the natural hazards and geosciences society by developing an open-source web platform where the users can analyze risk profiles and make decisions by performing cost benefit analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) with the support of others tools and resources provided. There are different access rights to the system depending on the user profiles and their responsibilities. The system is still under development and the current version provides maps viewing, basic GIS functionality, assessment of important infrastructures (e.g. bridge, hospital, etc.) affected by landslides and visualization of the impact

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

2013-01-01

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to

Considerations in Managing the Fill Rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir Using a System Dynamics Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Keith, Bruce; Ford, David N.; Horton, Radley M.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate simulated fill rate scenarios for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam while taking into account plausible climate change outcomes for the Nile River Basin. The region lacks a comprehensive equitable water resource management strategy, which creates regional security concerns and future possible conflicts. We employ climate estimates from 33 general circulation models within a system dynamics model as a step in moving toward a feasible regional water resource management strategy. We find that annual reservoir fill rates of 8-15% are capable of building hydroelectric capacity in Ethiopia while concurrently ensuring a minimum level of stream flow disruption into Egypt before 2039. Insofar as climate change estimates suggest a modest average increase in stream flow into the Aswan, climate changes through 2039 are unlikely to affect the fill rate policies. However, larger fill rates will have a more detrimental effect on stream flow into the Aswan, particularly beyond a policy of 15%. While this study demonstrates that a technical solution for reservoir fill rates is feasible, the corresponding policy challenge is political. Implementation of water resource management strategies in the Nile River Basin specifically and Africa generally will necessitate a national and regional willingness to cooperate.

An environmentally sustainable decision model for urban solid waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Costi, P.; Minciardi, R.; Robba, M.; Rovatti, M.; Sacile, R.

2004-01-01

The aim of this work is to present the structure and the application of a decision support system (DSS) designed to help decision makers of a municipality in the development of incineration, disposal, treatment and recycling integrated programs. Specifically, within a MSW management system, several treatment plants and facilities can generally be found: separators, plants for production of refuse derived fuel (RDF), incinerators with energy recovery, plants for treatment of organic material, and sanitary landfills. The main goal of the DSS is to plan the MSW management, defining the refuse flows that have to be sent to recycling or to different treatment or disposal plants, and suggesting the optimal number, the kinds, and the localization of the plants that have to be active. The DSS is based on a decision model that requires the solution of a constrained non-linear optimization problem, where some decision variables are binary and other ones are continuous. The objective function takes into account all possible economic costs, whereas constraints arise from technical, normative, and environmental issues. Specifically, pollution and impacts, induced by the overall solid waste management system, are considered through the formalization of constraints on incineration emissions and on negative effects produced by disposal or other particular treatments

The effect of scientific evidence on conservation practitioners' management decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Jessica C; Dicks, Lynn V; Sutherland, William J

2015-02-01

A major justification of environmental management research is that it helps practitioners, yet previous studies show it is rarely used to inform their decisions. We tested whether conservation practitioners focusing on bird management were willing to use a synopsis of relevant scientific literature to inform their management decisions. This allowed us to examine whether the limited use of scientific information in management is due to a lack of access to the scientific literature or whether it is because practitioners are either not interested or unable to incorporate the research into their decisions. In on-line surveys, we asked 92 conservation managers, predominantly from Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, to provide opinions on 28 management techniques that could be applied to reduce predation on birds. We asked their opinions before and after giving them a summary of the literature about the interventions' effectiveness. We scored the overall effectiveness and certainty of evidence for each intervention through an expert elicitation process-the Delphi method. We used the effectiveness scores to assess the practitioners' level of understanding and awareness of the literature. On average, each survey participant changed their likelihood of using 45.7% of the interventions after reading the synopsis of the evidence. They were more likely to implement effective interventions and avoid ineffective actions, suggesting that their intended future management strategies may be more successful than current practice. More experienced practitioners were less likely to change their management practices than those with less experience, even though they were not more aware of the existing scientific information than less experienced practitioners. The practitioners' willingness to change their management choices when provided with summarized scientific evidence suggests that improved accessibility to scientific information would benefit conservation management

Waterproofing with polymeric geo synthetic barriers (GBR-P) in the manual for the design, construction, management and maintenance of reservoirs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blanco, M.; Cea, J. C.; Garcia, F.; Sanchez, F. J.; Castillo, F.; Mora, J.; Crespo, M. A.

2010-01-01

This article presents a part of Manual for the Design, Construction, Management and Maintenance of Reservoirs relative to waterproofing with Polymeric Geo synthetic Barriers (GBR-P). the nature materials of geo membranes is studied also theirs characteristics and specifications. (Author) 26 refs.

Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management. Planning for Effective Decision Making; Consequence Management and Transition to Recovery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-01-01

The collective experience of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Emergency Matters (WPNEM), and in particular, the experience from the International Nuclear Emergency Exercise (INEX) series, has shown that it is important to plan and to implement emergency response actions based on a guiding strategic vision. Within this context, Strategic Aspects of Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Management presents a framework of strategic planning elements to be considered by national emergency management authorities when establishing or enhancing processes for decision making, and when developing or implementing protection strategies. The focus is on nuclear or radiological emergency situations leading to complex preparedness and response conditions, involving multiple jurisdictions and significant international interfaces. The report is aimed at national emergency management authorities, international organisations and those who are seeking to improve the effectiveness of emergency management. Its goal is to provide insights into decision-making processes within existing emergency planning arrangements. It also highlights common areas of good practice in decision making. Specific areas for improvement, identified during the INEX-3 consequence management exercise, are included, particularly in support of decision making for countermeasures for consequence management and the transition to recovery. (authors)

Science-based natural resource management decisions: what are they?

Science.gov (United States)

T.J. Mills; T.M. Quigley; F.J. Everest

2001-01-01

While many people interested in natural resources management propose science-based decisions, it is not clear what “science-based” means. Science-based decisions are those that result from the full and complete consideration of the relevant science information. We offer five guidelines to focus the scientist’s contributions to science-based decisionmaking and use the...

Developing Novel Reservoir Rule Curves Using Seasonal Inflow Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Tseng, Hsin-yi; Tung, Ching-pin

2015-04-01

Due to significant seasonal rainfall variations, reservoirs and their flexible operational rules are indispensable to Taiwan. Furthermore, with the intensifying impacts of climate change on extreme climate, the frequency of droughts in Taiwan has been increasing in recent years. Drought is a creeping phenomenon, the slow onset character of drought makes it difficult to detect at an early stage, and causes delays on making the best decision of allocating water. For these reasons, novel reservoir rule curves using projected seasonal streamflow are proposed in this study, which can potentially reduce the adverse effects of drought. This study dedicated establishing new rule curves which consider both current available storage and anticipated monthly inflows with leading time of two months to reduce the risk of water shortage. The monthly inflows are projected based on the seasonal climate forecasts from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which a weather generation model is used to produce daily weather data for the hydrological component of the GWLF. To incorporate future monthly inflow projections into rule curves, this study designs a decision flow index which is a linear combination of current available storage and inflow projections with leading time of 2 months. By optimizing linear relationship coefficients of decision flow index, the shape of rule curves and the percent of water supply in each zone, the best rule curves to decrease water shortage risk and impacts can be developed. The Shimen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan is used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. Existing rule curves (M5 curves) of Shimen Reservoir are compared with two cases of new rule curves, including hindcast simulations and historic seasonal forecasts. The results show new rule curves can decrease the total water shortage ratio, and in addition, it can also allocate shortage amount to preceding months to avoid extreme shortage events. Even though some uncertainties in

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Borges, Jose G.; Palma, João H.N.; Ray, Duncan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Delzon, Sylvain; Kremer, Antoine; Kramer, Koen; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Lasch-Born, Petra; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-01-01

Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future

Using multi-species occupancy models in structured decision making on managed lands

Science.gov (United States)

Sauer, John R.; Blank, Peter J.; Zipkin, Elise F.; Fallon, Jane E.; Fallon, Frederick W.

2013-01-01

Land managers must balance the needs of a variety of species when manipulating habitats. Structured decision making provides a systematic means of defining choices and choosing among alternative management options; implementation of a structured decision requires quantitative approaches to predicting consequences of management on the relevant species. Multi-species occupancy models provide a convenient framework for making structured decisions when the management objective is focused on a collection of species. These models use replicate survey data that are often collected on managed lands. Occupancy can be modeled for each species as a function of habitat and other environmental features, and Bayesian methods allow for estimation and prediction of collective responses of groups of species to alternative scenarios of habitat management. We provide an example of this approach using data from breeding bird surveys conducted in 2008 at the Patuxent Research Refuge in Laurel, Maryland, evaluating the effects of eliminating meadow and wetland habitats on scrub-successional and woodland-breeding bird species using summed total occupancy of species as an objective function. Removal of meadows and wetlands decreased value of an objective function based on scrub-successional species by 23.3% (95% CI: 20.3–26.5), but caused only a 2% (0.5, 3.5) increase in value of an objective function based on woodland species, documenting differential effects of elimination of meadows and wetlands on these groups of breeding birds. This approach provides a useful quantitative tool for managers interested in structured decision making.

Gradients in Catostomid assemblages along a reservoir cascade

Science.gov (United States)

Miranda, Leandro E.; Keretz, Kevin R.; Gilliland, Chelsea R.

2017-01-01

Serial impoundment of major rivers leads to alterations of natural flow dynamics and disrupts longitudinal connectivity. Catostomid fishes (suckers, family Catostomidae) are typically found in riverine or backwater habitats yet are able to persist in impounded river systems. To the detriment of conservation, there is limited information about distribution of catostomid fishes in impounded rivers. We examined the longitudinal distribution of catostomid fishes over 23 reservoirs of the Tennessee River reservoir cascade, encompassing approximately 1600 km. Our goal was to develop a basin-scale perspective to guide conservation efforts. Catostomid species composition and assemblage structure changed longitudinally along the reservoir cascade. Catostomid species biodiversity was greatest in reservoirs lower in the cascade. Assemblage composition shifted from dominance by spotted sucker Minytrema melanops and buffalos Ictiobus spp. in the lower reservoirs to carpsuckers Carpiodes spp. midway through the cascade and redhorses Moxostoma spp. in the upper reservoirs. Most species did not extend the length of the cascade, and some species were rare, found in low numbers and in few reservoirs. The observed gradients in catostomid assemblages suggest the need for basin-scale conservation measures focusing on three broad areas: (1) conservation and management of the up-lake riverine reaches of the lower reservoirs, (2) maintenance of the access to quality habitat in tributaries to the upper reservoirs and (3) reintroductions into currently unoccupied habitat within species' historic distributions

Stakeholder Risk Management in Ethical Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauesen, Linne Marie

evidence from hybrid organizations as Publicly Owned Enterprises (POEs) mixed of private corporations and political administration. The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decisionmaking processes by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. Not only does the model apply...... to these kinds of hybrid organizations, but it is easily adopted and tested for other private business models too. The findings and the conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk......Stakeholder management has for the last three decades been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models instead of the staticism that characterizes some models...

Neural Networks Technique, Lithofacies Classifications and Analysis and Depositional Environment Interpretation for 3-D Reservoir Geological Modeling and Exploration Studies (X Example)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iloghalu, E.; Chin, A.; Ebong, U.

2003-01-01

The value of borehole geology in Petroleum Exploration and Production cannot be over-emphasized. Reservoir characterization in mature fields and indeed mature basins requires high-resolution and high precision tools to determine the Stratigraphy and sedimentology of the areas of interest. The aim of reservoir studies is usually to determine the heterogeneity and the internal architecture of the reservoirs and the resulting model is simulated to derive the reservoir engineering properties, which impacts on quality decisions for optimal exploitation of the hydrocarbon in place. The point issues or challenges usually encountered in reservoir studies and management are baffles, barriers to flow, thief zones and other uncertainties that come about due to inadequate understanding of the sedimentology of the reservoirs in question. (Issues like preferential flow direction which significantly impact on secondary recovery and affect the costs). Recent advancements in borehole geology image and dips data helps to effectively itemize these uncertainties, and significantly reduce them to the barrest minimum. This work shows processed and interpreted image and dips data from a field, integrated with other petrophysical data and then incorporated into a field-wide study in the X-field. This was done using the most recent technological advancements in logging tools and in interpretation processes. The achievements include cost saving, higher precision results and reduced time or interpretation

Fort Cobb Reservoir Watershed, Oklahoma and Thika River Watershed, Kenya Twinning Pilot Project

Science.gov (United States)

Moriasi, D.; Steiner, J.; Arnold, J.; Allen, P.; Dunbar, J.; Shisanya, C.; Gathenya, J.; Nyaoro, J.; Sang, J.

2007-12-01

Nairobi. A dam was constructed in 1994 with a water reservoir of 70 million m3. Thika River also supplies water to Masinga Reservoir to supply the seven forks dams, which together supply 75% of the nation's electricity. The quantity of water in rivers and reservoirs is decreased due to sedimentation while water quality is degraded by sediments, and sediment-borne nutrients and pesticides. The focus of this pilot twinning project is watershed erosion and reservoir sedimentation assessment. This will be accomplished by (1) a rapid watershed/catchment erosion assessment using ground based measurements and remote sensing/GIS techniques, 2) use of Acoustic Profiling Systems (APS) for reservoir sedimentation measurement studies, and 3) advanced water quality modeling using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. Data acquired will be used for sediment transport modeling to1) determine sediment "hot spots" and management practices that will minimize sediments into reservoirs in order to 2) maintain the reservoirs on which many farmers depend for their livelihood and a cleaner environment. This project will provide an opportunity for 1) sharing knowledge and experience among the stakeholders, 2) building capacity through formal and informal education opportunities through reciprocal hosting of decision makers and water experts, and 3) technology transfer of pilot results with recommended management practices to reduce reservoir sedimentation rates.

Benefit cost models to support pavement management decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-01

A critical role of pavement management is to provide decision makers with estimates of the required budget level to achieve specific steady-state network conditions, and to recommend the best allocation of available budget among competing needs for m...

Slow down or race to halt: towards managing complexity of real-time energy management decisions

OpenAIRE

Petters, Stefan M.; Awan, Muhammad Ali

2010-01-01

Existing work in the context of energy management for real-time systems often ignores the substantial cost of making DVFS and sleep state decisions in terms of time and energy and/or assume very simple models. Within this paper we attempt to explore the parameter space for such decisions and possible constraints faced.

Risk-based decision making and risk management of European Union regional programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalopoulos Evangelos

2008-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a generalized method for management decision making incorporating risk assessment techniques. The risk based decision making methodology is applied to European Union expenditure programs used to implement its regional policy, such as the community support framework, community initiatives, special initiatives and other European policies. An example is presented for the development of an audit (inspection program in the region of West Macedonia, Greece, during the implementation of the 3rd Community Structural Support Framework Operational Program. The generic nature of the method permits its use in the management of similar European regional programs in Greece and other European countries. It is also applicable to many other industries interested in applying risk-based management decisions to physical or process based systems. .

Policy Considerations for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Freshwater Reservoirs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirsi Mäkinen

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Emerging concern over greenhouse gas (GHG emissions from wetlands has prompted calls to address the climate impact of dams in climate policy frameworks. Existing studies indicate that reservoirs can be significant sources of emissions, particularly in tropical areas. However, knowledge on the role of dams in overall national emission levels and abatement targets is limited, which is often cited as a key reason for political inaction and delays in formulating appropriate policies. Against this backdrop, this paper discusses the current role of reservoir emissions in existing climate policy frameworks. The distance between a global impact on climate and a need for local mitigation measures creates a challenge for designing appropriate mechanisms to combat reservoir emissions. This paper presents a range of possible policy interventions at different scales that could help address the climate impact of reservoirs. Reservoir emissions need to be treated like other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A rational treatment of the issue requires applying commonly accepted climate change policy principles as well as promoting participatory water management plans through integrated water resource management frameworks. An independent global body such as the UN system may be called upon to assess scientific information and develop GHG emissions policy at appropriate levels.

A risk-based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world

Science.gov (United States)

Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H.

2014-03-01

Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of "no trend" and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision-makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over- and under-preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.

Artificial intelligence based decision support for trumpeter swan management

Science.gov (United States)

Sojda, Richard S.

2002-01-01

The number of trumpeter swans (Cygnus buccinator) breeding in the Tri-State area where Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming come together has declined to just a few hundred pairs. However, these birds are part of the Rocky Mountain Population which additionally has over 3,500 birds breeding in Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, and Yukon Territory. To a large degree, these birds seem to have abandoned traditional migratory pathways in the flyway. Waterfowl managers have been interested in decision support tools that would help them explore simulated management scenarios in their quest towards reaching population recovery and the reestablishment of traditional migratory pathways. I have developed a decision support system to assist biologists with such management, especially related to wetland ecology. Decision support systems use a combination of models, analytical techniques, and information retrieval to help develop and evaluate appropriate alternatives. Swan management is a domain that is ecologically complex, and this complexity is compounded by spatial and temporal issues. As such, swan management is an inherently distributed problem. Therefore, the ecological context for modeling swan movements in response to management actions was built as a multiagent system of interacting intelligent agents that implements a queuing model representing swan migration. These agents accessed ecological knowledge about swans, their habitats, and flyway management principles from three independent expert systems. The agents were autonomous, had some sensory capability, and could respond to changing conditions. A key problem when developing ecological decision support systems is empirically determining that the recommendations provided are valid. Because Rocky Mountain trumpeter swans have been surveyed for a long period of time, I was able to compare simulated distributions provided by the system with actual field observations across 20 areas for the period 1988

Public involvement in radioactive waste management decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1994-04-01

Current repository siting efforts focus on Yucca Mountain, Nevada, where DOE`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is conducting exploratory studies to determine if the site is suitable. The state of Nevada has resisted these efforts: it has denied permits, brought suit against DOE, and publicly denounced the federal government`s decision to study Yucca Mountain. The state`s opposition reflects public opinion in Nevada, and has considerably slowed DOE`s progress in studying the site. The Yucca Mountain controversy demonstrates the importance of understanding public attitudes and their potential influence as DOE develops a program to manage radioactive waste. The strength and nature of Nevada`s opposition -- its ability to thwart if not outright derail DOE`s activities -- indicate a need to develop alternative methods for making decisions that affect the public. This report analyzes public participation as a key component of this openness, one that provides a means of garnering acceptance of, or reducing public opposition to, DOE`s radioactive waste management activities, including facility siting and transportation. The first section, Public Perceptions: Attitudes, Trust, and Theory, reviews the risk-perception literature to identify how the public perceives the risks associated with radioactivity. DOE and the Public discusses DOE`s low level of credibility among the general public as the product, in part, of the department`s past actions. This section looks at the three components of the radioactive waste management program -- disposal, storage, and transportation -- and the different ways DOE has approached the problem of public confidence in each case. Midwestern Radioactive Waste Management Histories focuses on selected Midwestern facility-siting and transportation activities involving radioactive materials.

New technologies for reservoir management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mair, Dylan; Benthien, Nancy; Evans, Scot [Landmark Graphics Corporation, Houston, TX (United States); Lukats, Kandy

2004-07-01

The E and P industry has high levels of uncertainty and risk, which oil companies attempt to quantify before embarking on each individual E and P project. However, the actual return on investment often falls well short of the hurdle rate. This discrepancy has been attributed to systemic limitations in decision analysis processes and workflow, which result in repeated underestimation of risk and overestimation of the predicted production of the project. Well designed decision analysis processes in association with clearly defined, multi-scenario analyses of significant technical uncertainties are required. However, simulation of these uncertainties is not realistic given the performance and infrastructure limitations of conventional technology (Begg et al., 2001; Floris and Peersmann, 2000). During the past five years, more than 20 companies have attempted to map the requirements of new technology that is needed to improve uncertainty assessment and decision analysis. Pain points associated with common processes in upstream E and P were studied leading to identify the computing technology issues currently faced by oil companies. A strategy was then formalized to create a new generation of technology that eases the pain points while providing for improved understanding of risk. This paper details a new asset-team focused technology system that has been built to improve the value of E and P decision analysis processes. (author)

Operational Precipitation prediction in Support of Real-Time Flash Flood Prediction and Reservoir Management

Science.gov (United States)

Georgakakos, K. P.

2006-05-01

The presentation will outline the implementation and performance evaluation of a number of national and international projects pertaining to operational precipitation estimation and prediction in the context of hydrologic warning systems and reservoir management support. In all cases, uncertainty measures of the estimates and predictions are an integral part of the precipitation models. Outstanding research issues whose resolution is likely to lead to improvements in the operational environment are presented. The presentation draws from the experience of the Hydrologic Research Center (http://www.hrc-lab.org) prototype implementation projects at the Panama Canal, Central America, Northern California, and South-Central US. References: Carpenter, T.M, and K.P. Georgakakos, "Discretization Scale Dependencies of the Ensemble Flow Range versus Catchment Area Relationship in Distributed Hydrologic Modeling," Journal of Hydrology, 2006, in press. Carpenter, T.M., and K.P. Georgakakos, "Impacts of Parametric and Radar Rainfall Uncertainty on the Ensemble Streamflow Simulations of a Distributed Hydrologic Model," Journal of Hydrology, 298, 202-221, 2004. Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.E., Carpenter, T.M., Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, "Integrating Climate- Hydrology Forecasts and Multi-Objective Reservoir Management in Northern California," EOS, 86(12), 122,127, 2005. Georgakakos, K.P., and J.A. Sperfslage, "Operational Rainfall and Flow Forecasting for the Panama Canal Watershed," in The Rio Chagres: A Multidisciplinary Profile of a Tropical Watershed, R.S. Harmon, ed., Kluwer Academic Publishers, The Netherlands, Chapter 16, 323-334, 2005. Georgakakos, K. P., "Analytical results for operational flash flood guidance," Journal of Hydrology, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.05.009, 2005.