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Sample records for reserves deforestation analysis

  1. Reserves protect against deforestation fires in the Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Marion Adeney

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon.

  2. Reserves Protect against Deforestation Fires in the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeney, J. Marion; Christensen, Norman L.; Pimm, Stuart L.

    2009-01-01

    Background Reserves are the principal means to conserve forests and biodiversity, but the question of whether reserves work is still debated. In the Amazon, fires are closely linked to deforestation, and thus can be used as a proxy for reserve effectiveness in protecting forest cover. We ask whether reserves in the Brazilian Amazon provide effective protection against deforestation and consequently fires, whether that protection is because of their location or their legal status, and whether some reserve types are more effective than others. Methodology/Principal Findings Previous work has shown that most Amazonian fires occur close to roads and are more frequent in El Niño years. We quantified these relationships for reserves and unprotected areas by examining satellite-detected hot pixels regressed against road distance across the entire Brazilian Amazon and for a decade with 2 El Niño-related droughts. Deforestation fires, as measured by hot pixels, declined exponentially with increasing distance from roads in all areas. Fewer deforestation fires occurred within protected areas than outside and the difference between protected and unprotected areas was greatest near roads. Thus, reserves were especially effective at preventing these fires where they are known to be most likely to burn; but they did not provide absolute protection. Even within reserves, at a given distance from roads, there were more deforestation fires in regions with high human impact than in those with low impact. The effect of El Niño on deforestation fires was greatest outside of reserves and near roads. Indigenous reserves, limited-use reserves, and fully protected reserves all had fewer fires than outside areas and did not appear to differ in their effectiveness. Conclusions/Significance Taking time, regional factors, and climate into account, our results show that reserves are an effective tool for curbing destructive burning in the Amazon. PMID:19352423

  3. Deforestation, Leakage and Avoided Deforestation Policies: A Spatial Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe Delacote; Elizabeth J. Z. Robinson; Sébastien Roussel

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of several avoided deforestation policies within a patchy forested landscape. Central is the idea that one neighbour's deforestation actions may impact the returns to deforestation in nearby patches. We determine the impact of each policy in terms of avoided deforestation and leakage levels at the landscape scale through modelling and simulations. Avoided deforestation policies at a landscape level are respectively: two Payment for Environmental Services (PES) p...

  4. Deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    Meyfroidt, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    Forests are sources of wood, food, and other non-timber forest products. They provide multiple ecosystem services including carbon sink and storage, habitats for biodiversity, preservation of soils, regulation of hydrological cycles, and micro-and regional climates. Deforestation is the largest single anthropogenic transformation of natural ecosystems, with large impacts on all these goods and services. Concern about forests and deforestation has long been framed through the issue of sustaini...

  5. Spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation in Rio Cajarí Extrative Reserve, Amapá, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funi, Claudia; Paese, Adriana

    2012-01-01

    The Rio Cajarí Extractive Reserve (RCER) is a sustainable use protected area located in Southern Amapá state, Brazil. This protected area is home to traditional agro-extractive families, but has been increasingly invaded by commercial agriculture producers. In this work, we test the hypothesis that the RCER implementation has distinctly affected spatial patterns of deforestation and rates of bare soil and secondary forest formation by the social groups occupying the protected area and its surrounding area. Detailed maps of vegetation cover and deforestation were elaborated, based on Landsat TM images from 1991, 1998, 2007 and 2008 and Linear Spectral Mixture Models. Based on an extensive fieldwork, patches were classified according to the agents causing deforestation and characterized with ten explanatory variables. A discriminant function analysis was used to identify homogeneous groups based on the data. Results show increased rates and distinct spatial patterns of deforestation by three groups: extractivists, non traditional commercial agriculture producers, and a less representative group constituted of miners, cattle and timber producers. In all analyzed dates, clearings by the extrativist community presented the highest total area and smaller average sizes and were located in close proximity to villages. Deforestation patches by the non-traditional group were exclusively associated with ombrophilous forests; these presented higher average sizes and proximity indexes, and showed increased aggregation and large cluster formation. No significant differences were observed in deforestation patterns by the three groups inside or outside the reserve.

  6. A Comparison of Microeconomic and Macroeconomic Approaches to Deforestation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeff Felardo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The economics of deforestation has been explored in detail. Generally, the frame of analysis takes either a microeconomics or macroeconomics approach. The microeconomics approach assumes that individual decision makers are responsible for deforestation as a result of utility maximizing behavior and imperfect property right regimes. The macroeconomics approach explores nationwide trends thought to be associated with forest conversion. This paper investigates the relationship between these two approaches by empirically testing the determinants of deforestation using the same data set from Thailand. The theory for both the microeconomics-based and macroeconomics-based approaches are developed and then tested statistically. The models were constructed using established theoretical frames developed in the literature. The results from both models show statistical significance consistent with prior results in the tropical deforestation literature. A comparison of the two approaches demonstrates that the macro approach is useful in identifying relevant aggregate trends in the deforestation process; the micro approach provides the opportunity to isolate factors of those trends which are necessary for effective policy decisions.

  7. Unintended outcomes of farmers' adaptation to climate variability: deforestation and conservation in Calakmul and Maya biosphere reserves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Rodriguez-Solorzano

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Minimizing the impact of climate change on farmer livelihoods is crucial, but adaptation efforts may have unintended consequences for ecosystems, with potential impacts on farmers' welfare. Unintended outcomes of climate adaptation strategies have been widely discussed, however, empirical exploration has been neglected. Grounded in scholarship on climate adaptation, environmental governance, social-ecological systems, and land-use change, this paper studies whether farmers' climate adaptation contributes to deforestation or forest conservation. The paper draws on interviews with 353 farmers from 46 communities in Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in Mexico and Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala. Farmers in the area of study have implemented adaptation strategies that people around the world have used for centuries, including migration, diversification, savings, and pooling. The findings show that climate adaptation can increase deforestation or support forest conservation depending on the type of adaptation strategy farmers implement. Saving, based on cattle ranching, is a deforestation-driving strategy. The choice of this strategy is influenced by distance to the commercial and administrative center and cash benefits from the forest. Deforestation can have a negative impact on farmers' welfare, as well as harm biodiversity and contribute to increased climate change. Thus, deforestation-driving adaptation strategies may be ineffective. However, diversification, based on off-farm jobs and operating provision shops, is a conservation-driving strategy influenced by distance as well as by family size. Farmers who choose diversification to adapt may contribute to a virtuous circle in which livelihood improvement in the short term leads to enhanced social-ecological resilience in the longer term. The need for farmers to implement adaptation strategies thus represents great risk but also opportunities.

  8. Trends in deforestation and forest degradation after a decade of monitoring in the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Omar; López-García, José; Rendón-Salinas, Eduardo

    2014-02-01

    We used aerial photographs, satellite images, and field surveys to monitor forest cover in the core zones of the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve in Mexico from 2001 to 2012. We used our data to assess the effectiveness of conservation actions that involved local, state, and federal authorities and community members (e.g., local landowners and private and civil organizations) in one of the world's most iconic protected areas. From 2001 through 2012, 1254 ha were deforested (i.e., cleared areas had <10% canopy cover), 925 ha were degraded (i.e., areas for which canopy forest decreased), and 122 ha were affected by climatic conditions. Of the total 2179 ha of affected area, 2057 ha were affected by illegal logging: 1503 ha by large-scale logging and 554 ha by small-scale logging. Mexican authorities effectively enforced efforts to protect the monarch reserve, particularly from 2007 to 2012. Those efforts, together with the decade-long financial support from Mexican and international philanthropists and businesses to create local alternative-income generation and employment, resulted in the decrease of large-scale illegal logging from 731 ha affected in 2005-2007 to none affected in 2012, although small-scale logging is of growing concern. However, dire regional social and economic problems remain, and they must be addressed to ensure the reserve's long-term conservation. The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) overwintering colonies in Mexico-which engage in one of the longest known insect migrations-are threatened by deforestation, and a multistakeholder, regional, sustainable-development strategy is needed to protect the reserve. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  9. Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Huirong; Lim, C. W.; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

    2014-01-01

    The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony. PMID:25254225

  10. Sustainable deforestation evaluation model and system dynamics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Huirong; Lim, C W; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

    2014-01-01

    The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

  11. Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huirong Feng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

  12. Deforestation and child diet diversity: A geospatial analysis of 15 Sub-Saharan African countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galway, Lindsay P; Acharya, Yubraj; Jones, Andrew D

    2018-05-01

    Deforestation worldwide could have important consequences for diet quality and human nutrition given the numerous ecosystem services that are provided by forests and biodiverse landscapes. Yet, empirical research assessing the links between deforestation and diets is lacking. In this study, we examined the association between deforestation and diet diversity among children using geolocated Demographic and Health Survey data for 33,777 children across 15 countries of sub-Saharan Africa coupled with remotely-sensed data on forest cover loss. Deforestation was negatively associated with diet diversity (regression coefficient (95% CI): - 0.47 (- 0.76, - 0.18)), as well as recent consumption of legumes and nuts, flesh foods, and fruits and vegetables among children aged 6 months to 24 months. Regionally, these trends were statistically significant only in the West Africa region. This hypothesis-generating research adds to the growing body of evidence that forests and forest-based ecosystems are associated with diet quality and nutrition and provides support for future studies that examine mechanisms linking forest loss and human nutrition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Remote sensing and spatial analysis based study for detecting deforestation and the associated drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Abbas, Mustafa M.; Csaplovics, Elmar; Deafalla, Taisser H.

    2013-10-01

    Nowadays, remote-sensing technologies are becoming increasingly interlinked to the issue of deforestation. They offer a systematized and objective strategy to document, understand and simulate the deforestation process and its associated causes. In this context, the main goal of this study, conducted in the Blue Nile region of Sudan, in which most of the natural habitats were dramatically destroyed, was to develop spatial methodologies to assess the deforestation dynamics and its associated factors. To achieve that, optical multispectral satellite scenes (i.e., ASTER and LANDSAT) integrated with field survey in addition to multiple data sources were used for the analyses. Spatiotemporal Object Based Image Analysis (STOBIA) was applied to assess the change dynamics within the period of study. Broadly, the above mentioned analyses include; Object Based (OB) classifications, post-classification change detection, data fusion, information extraction and spatial analysis. Hierarchical multi-scale segmentation thresholds were applied and each class was delimited with semantic meanings by a set of rules associated with membership functions. Consequently, the fused multi-temporal data were introduced to create detailed objects of change classes from the input LU/LC classes. The dynamic changes were quantified and spatially located as well as the spatial and contextual relations from adjacent areas were analyzed. The main finding of the present study is that, the forest areas were drastically decreased, while the agrarian structure in conversion of forest into agricultural fields and grassland was the main force of deforestation. In contrast, the capability of the area to recover was clearly observed. The study concludes with a brief assessment of an 'oriented' framework, focused on the alarming areas where serious dynamics are located and where urgent plans and interventions are most critical, guided with potential solutions based on the identified driving forces.

  14. Ecology: The Tropical Deforestation Debt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Ken

    2016-08-22

    Tropical deforestation is a significant cause of global carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. A new study shows that deforestation today leaves a carbon and biodiversity debt to be paid over subsequent years. This has potentially profound implications for forest conservation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. A Global Analysis of Deforestation in Moist Tropical Forest Protected Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, B D; Kalamandeen, M; Galbraith, D; Gloor, E; Spracklen, D V

    2015-01-01

    Protected areas (PAs) have been established to conserve tropical forests, but their effectiveness at reducing deforestation is uncertain. To explore this issue, we combined high resolution data of global forest loss over the period 2000-2012 with data on PAs. For each PA we quantified forest loss within the PA, in buffer zones 1, 5, 10 and 15 km outside the PA boundary as well as a 1 km buffer within the PA boundary. We analysed 3376 tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs in 56 countries over 4 continents. We found that 73% of PAs experienced substantial deforestation pressure, with >0.1% a(-1) forest loss in the outer 1 km buffer. Forest loss within PAs was greatest in Asia (0.25% a(-1)) compared to Africa (0.1% a(-1)), the Neotropics (0.1% a(-1)) and Australasia (Australia and Papua New Guinea; 0.03% a(-1)). We defined performance (P) of a PA as the ratio of forest loss in the inner 1 km buffer compared to the loss that would have occurred in the absence of the PA, calculated as the loss in the outer 1 km buffer corrected for any difference in deforestation pressure between the two buffers. To remove the potential bias due to terrain, we analysed a subset of PAs (n = 1804) where slope and elevation in inner and outer 1 km buffers were similar (within 1° and 100 m, respectively). We found 41% of PAs in this subset reduced forest loss in the inner buffer by at least 25% compared to the expected inner buffer forest loss (P<0.75). Median performance (P) of subset reserves was 0.87, meaning a reduction in forest loss within the PA of 13%. We found PAs were most effective in Australasia (P = 0.16), moderately successful in the Neotropics (P = 0.72) and Africa (p = 0.83), but ineffective in Asia (P = 1). We found many countries have PAs that give little or no protection to forest loss, particularly in parts of Asia, west Africa and central America. Across the tropics, the median effectiveness of PAs at the national level improved with gross domestic product per

  16. Tropical Deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raven, Peter H.

    1988-01-01

    Outlines the deforestation problem and some efforts for solving the problem. Considers the impact of population growth, poverty, and ignorance. Includes a discussion of the current rapid decline in tropical forests, the consequences of destruction, and an outlook for the future. (YP)

  17. Deforestation as a result of wildfire incidence in the Worobong Forest Reserve in the Eastern Region of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danquah, S.

    2009-04-01

    This submission captures report on the perennial occurrence of wildfires and their accompanying effects on the inhabitants and the fringe forest communities in the Worobong Forest Reserve within the Eastern part of Ghana. Wildfire continues to be the single serious threat to the sustainable development and management of forest and wildlife resources in Ghana, thus depriving indigenous fringe forest communities of enormous socio-economic benefit of the forest. Locally, fire is used in the preparation of farm lands, tapping of palm-wine, charcoal production, honey harvesting, etc. This paper identifies some of the effects of wildfires on the indigenous communities and various interventions made to address the wildfire menace in the area of study over the years. Keywords: Wildfire, Fringe Forest Communities, Sustainable Development Resources, Socio-Economic Benefits

  18. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/156696207

    2015-01-01

    This essay takes a (green) criminological and multidisciplinary perspective on deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, by focusing on the crimes and damages that are associated with Amazonian deforestation. The analysis and results are partly based on longer ethnographic stays in North Brazil (Amazon

  19. Query deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    Grust, Torsten; Scholl, Marc H.

    1998-01-01

    The construction of a declarative query engine for a DBMS includes the challenge of compiling algebraic queries into efficient execution plans that can be run on top of the persistent storage. This work pursues the goal of employing foldr-build deforestation for the derivation of efficient streaming programs - programs that do not allocate intermediate data structures to perform their task - from algebraic (combinator) query plans. The query engine is based on the insertion representation of ...

  20. Institutions and deforestation in the Brazilian amazon: a geographic regression discontinuity analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Bogetvedt, Ingvild Engen; Hauge, Mari Johnsrud

    2017-01-01

    This study explores the impact of institutional quality at the municipal level on deforestation in the Legal Amazon. We add to this insufficiently understood topic by implementing a geographic regression discontinuity design. By taking advantage of high-resolution spatial data on deforestation combined with an objective measure of corruption used as a proxy for institutional quality, we analyse 138 Brazilian municipalities in the period of 2002-2004. Our empirical findings show...

  1. Environmental concerns of deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, A.

    1995-01-01

    The loss of forests as a result of deforestation is a serious problem in Pakistan as well as in other developing world. The forests play important role in environmental protection through soil conservation, regulation of hydrological cycles and micro climate amelioration. At the global scale, forests act as carbon sinks, maintain biodiversity and regulate climate, especially in the context of greenhouse effect. The deforestation should be countered through enforcement of strict laws and elaborating environmental role of forests through media and local councils. Various economic analysis indicate that tropical forests have greater overall benefits if left intact, rather than destroying them for timber. (author)

  2. Spectral Mixture Analysis to map burned areas in Brazil's deforestation arc from 1992 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes Daldegan, G.; Ribeiro, F.; Roberts, D. A.

    2017-12-01

    The two most extensive biomes in South America, the Amazon and the Cerrado, are subject to several fire events every dry season. Both are known for their ecological and environmental importance. However, due to the intensive human occupation over the last four decades, they have been facing high deforestation rates. The Cerrado biome is adapted to fire and is considered a fire-dependent landscape. In contrast, the Amazon as a tropical moist broadleaf forest does not display similar characteristics and is classified as a fire-sensitive landscape. Nonetheless, studies have shown that forest areas that have already been burned become more prone to experience recurrent burns. Remote sensing has been extensively used by a large number of researchers studying fire occurrence at a global scale, as well as in both landscapes aforementioned. Digital image processing aiming to map fire activity has been applied to a number of imagery from sensors of various spatial, temporal, and spectral resolutions. More specifically, several studies have used Landsat data to map fire scars in the Amazon forest and in the Cerrado. An advantage of using Landsat data is the potential to map fire scars at a finer spatial resolution, when compared to products derived from imagery of sensors featuring better temporal resolution but coarser spatial resolution, such as MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) and GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite). This study aimed to map burned areas present in the Amazon-Cerrado transition zone by applying Spectral Mixture Analysis on Landsat imagery for a period of 20 years (1992-2011). The study area is a subset of this ecotone, centered at the State of Mato Grosso. By taking advantage of the Landsat 5TM and Landsat 7ETM+ imagery collections available in Google Earth Engine platform and applying Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) techniques over them permitted to model fire scar fractions and delimitate burned areas. Overlaying

  3. Economic analysis of deforestation : the case of the gum Arabic belt in Sudan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahim, A.

    2006-01-01

    Keywords: Gum Arabic; Deforestation; Entry and Exit; Real options Drought; Socio-economic, Oligopoly; Interdependent markets; Stackelberg.The gum arabic belt inSudanoffered in the past an

  4. Synergy effects of international policy instruments to reduce deforestation: a cross-country panel data analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Solenn Leplay; Sophie Thoyer

    2011-01-01

    Localisation : Centre de documentation P. Bartoli, UMR LAMETA, Montpellier (S WPL 2011-01); Safeguarding tropical rainforests is one of the most important challenges for the future, particularly to mitigate climate change. The international community has actively sought international policy solutions to curb deforestation in tropical countries. Debt-for-nature swaps and certification of sustainable forest management have been implemented by NGOs. Some states are currently negotiating the impl...

  5. Rates and patterns of deforestation in the Philippines: application of geographic information system analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawning S. Lui; Louis R. Iverson; Sandra Brown

    1993-01-01

    Land-use maps for 1934 and 1988, and a 1941 road map of the Philippines were digitized into a geographic information system. These maps were then analyzed to determine the rates of deforestation and their relationship with factors such as the distance of forests to roads and forest fragmentation (measured by perimeter-to-area ratio (P/A ratio) of forest patches) for...

  6. Deforestation and reforestation analysis from land-use changes in North Sumatran Mangroves, 1990-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basyuni, M.; Sulistiyono, N.

    2018-02-01

    Mangrove forest plays a critical role in the context of climate change in tropical and subtropical regions. The present study analyzed the deforestation and reforestation from land-use and land-cover changes from 1990, 2000, 2009 and 2015 in North Sumatran mangrove forest, Indonesia. The land-use/land-cover consists of thirteen classes namely, primary mangrove forest, secondary mangrove forest, shrub, swamp shrub, swamp, settlement, paddy field, oil palm plantation, aquaculture, dry land farming, mixed dry land farming, mining, and barren land. Results showed that primary mangrove forests significantly decreased 61.21% from 1990 to 2015, mostly deforestation was derived from 1990 to 2000 to be secondary mangrove forest and swamp shrub. During 25 years observed, no reforestation was noted in the primary mangrove forest. Similarly, secondary mangrove forest had been degraded from 56,128.75 ha in 1990 to only 35,768.48 ha in 2015. Drivers of deforestation found in secondary mangrove forests were aquaculture (43.32%), barren land (32.56%), swamp shrub (10.88%), and oil palm plantation (5.17%). On the other hand, reforested activity was occurred only 701.83 ha from 1990 to 2015, while the nonforest use has been increased. These data are likely to contribute towards coastal management planning, conservation, and rehabilitation of degraded mangrove forests.

  7. Deforestation In Government Protected Areas: The Case Of Falgore ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Deforestation In Government Protected Areas: The Case Of Falgore Game Reservre, ... This paper highlights the nature of deforestation in a government declared “protected area (Falgore Game Reserve)”. ... AJOL African Journals Online.

  8. Deforestation Analysis of Riverine Forest of Sindh Using Remote Sensing Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Habibullah Abbasi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available During recent decades the large scale deterioration of forests and natural resources is an eye opener. The degradation of forests and other natural resources has affected the ecology, environment, health and economy. The ecological problems with living organisms such as animals and plants and environmental problems such as increase in temperature and carbon dioxide, these factors have contributed to change in regional climate, health problems such as skin, eye diseases and sunstroke and economic problems such as loss of income to rural population and resources which depend on forests such as livestock. Therefore, it was necessary to carry out land cover/use research focusing on the monitoring and management of the present and past state of forests cover and other related objects using RS (Remote Sensing technologies. The RS is a way of mapping and monitoring the changes taking place in forests cover and other objects on a continuing basis. Sukkur and Shikarpur riverine forests are vanishing quickly due to the construction of barrages /dams on upper streams to produce hydroelectricity and irrigation installations which reduce the discharge of fresh water into the downstream Indus basin. Moreover, anthropogenic activities, livestock population, increased grazing, load and illegal tree cutting have contributed to this. The riverine forests are turning into barren land and most of the land is used for agriculture. These uncontrolled changes contribute to climate change and global warming. These changes are difficult to monitor and control without using RS technology. Assessment of deforestation of the Sukkur and Shikarpur to find temporal changes in the forests cover from April, 1979 to April, 2009 is presented in this paper. The integrated classes such as water body, grass/agriculture land, dry/barren land and forest cover maps show the temporal changes taking place in the forests cover for the last 30 years period. RS has been employed in the

  9. Spatial Modeling of Deforestation in FMU of Poigar, North Sulawesi

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad, Afandi; Saleh, Muhammad Buce; Rusolono, Teddy

    2016-01-01

    Forest is a part of the ecosystem that provides environmental services. Deforestation may decrease forest function in an ecosystem. This study aims to build a spatial model of deforestation in a forest management unit (FMU) of Poigar. Deforestation analysis carried out by analyze the change of forest cover into non-forest cover with post classification comparison technique. Driving forces of deforestation carried out by spatial modeling using binary logistic regression models (LRM). Result of...

  10. Small farmers and deforestation in Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brondízio, Eduardo S.; Cak, Anthony; Caldas, Marcellus M.; Mena, Carlos; Bilsborrow, Richard; Futemma, Celia T.; Ludewigs, Thomas; Moran, Emilio F.; Batistella, Mateus

    This chapter discusses the relationship between small farmers' land use and deforestation, with particular attention paid to the past 30 years of Amazonian colonization in Brazil and Ecuador. Our analysis calls attention to common features uniting different social groups as small farmers (e.g., social identity, access to land and resources, technology, market, and credit), as well as the variability between small farmers in terms of time in the region (from native populations to recent colonists), contribution to regional deforestation, types of land use systems. At a regional level, small farmers contribute to the majority of deforestation events, but are responsible for only a fraction of the total deforested area in Amazonia. We discuss three misconceptions that have been used to define small farmers and their contribution to the regional economy, development, and deforestation: (1) small farmers have backward land use systems associated with low productivity and extensive deforestation and subsistence production, (2) small farmers contribute to Amazonian deforestation as much as large farmers, and (3) small farmers, particularly colonist farmers, follow an inexorable path of deforestation unless curbed by government action. We conclude the chapter discussing their growing regional importance and the need for more inclusive public policies concerning infrastructure and services and valorization of resources produced in rural areas of Amazonia.

  11. Deforestation intensifies hot days

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoy, Paul C.

    2018-05-01

    Deforestation often increases land-surface and near-surface temperatures, but climate models struggle to simulate this effect. Research now shows that deforestation has increased the severity of extreme heat in temperate regions of North America and Europe. This points to opportunities to mitigate extreme heat.

  12. A Comparative Analysis of Outstanding Claim Reserves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zlata Djuric

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The key processes in the business of insurance companies which define the financial viability of their business activities, as the most important element, are the adequate amount of technical reserves. A qualitative assessment of the technical reserves level is the basic support to the management of the key business processes and proper strategic and financial decision-making in order to maximize the viability, profitability, competitiveness, and further development of the company. Based on the data on the operations of an insurance company, within a single line of insurance, different, in practice, most frequently used methods were applied in order to determine the deviation amplitude of the projected amounts from the actual claims. Another direction of research focuses on actuarial practice in non-life insurance companies operating in the territory of the Republic of Serbia. The comparative analysis of the obtained projection points to the fact that the chosen methods, commonly used in actuarial practice in the Republic of Serbia, should be monitored and reviewed. The results of the multidirectional research and detection of the existing problems provide a useful framework and a stimulating mechanism, as well as the guidelines to improve the operations and better positioning of insurance in the commercial and economic environment of the Republic of Serbia.

  13. Remote sensing based deforestation analysis in Mahanadi and Brahmaputra river basin in India since 1985.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behera, M D; Tripathi, P; Das, P; Srivastava, S K; Roy, P S; Joshi, C; Behera, P R; Deka, J; Kumar, P; Khan, M L; Tripathi, O P; Dash, T; Krishnamurthy, Y V N

    2018-01-15

    Land use and land cover (LULC) change has been recognized as a key driver of global climate change by influencing land surface processes. Being in constant change, river basins are always subjected to LULC changes, especially decline in forest cover to give way for agricultural expansion, urbanization, industrialization etc. We used on-screen digital interpretation technique to derive LULC maps from Landsat images at three decadal intervals i.e., 1985, 1995 and 2005 of two major river basins of India. Rain-fed, Mahanadi river basin (MRB) attributed to 55% agricultural area wherein glacier-fed, Brahmaputra river basin (BRB) had only 16% area under agricultural land. Though conversion of forest land for agricultural activities was the major LULC changes in both the basins, the rate was higher for BRB than MRB. While water body increased in MRB could be primarily attributed to creation of reservoirs and aquaculture farms; snow and ice melting attributed to creation of more water bodies in BRB. Scrub land acted as an intermediate class for forest conversion to barren land in BRB, while direct conversion of scrub land to waste land and crop land was seen in MRB. While habitation contributed primarily to LULC changes in BRB, the proximity zones around habitat and other socio-economic drivers contributed to LULC change in MRB. Comparing the predicted result with actual LULC of 2005, we obtained >97% modelling accuracy; therefore it is expected that the Dyna-CLUE model has very well predicted the LULC for the year 2025. The predicted LULC of 2025 and corresponding LULC changes in these two basins acting as early warning, and with the past 2-decadal change analysis this study is believed to help the land use planners for improved regional planning to create balanced ecosystem, especially in a changing climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Deforestation in Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Branco

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation is not a new problem although world-wide population awareness is increasing. This issue has terrible environmental, social and economic consequences due to the over-exploitation of the natural resources and to alternative land uses which are more profitable in the short term. The combat and mitigation of deforestation is one of the biggest challenges for the 21st Century in order to achieve the Millennium Goals and a global sustainable development at all levels of human activities. Therefore, this paper will address this concerns focusing on the causes and consequences of deforestation as well as on the actions carried out by the decision makers in order to provide solutions for this increasingly and alarming problem. This paper will also approach the concepts of sustainability as well as the economy and management of the natural resources aiming an insight of the past deforestation in Portugal, the present situation and a sustainable perspective regarding the future.

  15. Deforestation Hydrological Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poveda J, G.; Mesa S, O.J.

    1995-01-01

    Deforestation causes strong disturbances in ecosystems and in hydrological cycle, increasing or reducing wealths. Particularly in this work, effects of feed back between interface processes land - atmosphere are discussed and is demonstrated that losses of water by evaporation-transpiration are thoroughly indispensable to maintain the balance of hydrological regime. It's concluded that as a rule the effect of deforestation is to reduce wealth middle and to increase extreme wealth with consequent stronger and more frequent droughts or flood effects. Other deforestation effects as increase in superficial temperature, increase in atmospherical pressure, decrease in soil moisture, decrease in evaporation-transpiration, decrease of soil ruggedness, decrease of thickness of atmospherical cap limit, decrease of clouds, decrease of rain in both medium and long term and the consequent decrease of rivers wealth middle are explained. Of other side, the basins with greater deforestation affectation in Colombia are indicated. Finally, it's demonstrated the need of implementing reforestation programs

  16. Deforestation and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Bosetti V.; Lubowski Ruben N. (Ruben Noah)

    2010-01-01

    "Deforestation and forest degradation have long been recognized as environmental problems, with concerns over conservation of natural habitats and biological diversity capturing both scientific and public attention. More recently, the debate over tropical forest conservation has radically shifted to the approximately fifteen percent of global greenhouse gas emissions that are caused by deforestation and forest degradation, and to the potential synergies from integrating forest management with...

  17. Deforestation in Portugal

    OpenAIRE

    João Branco; Márcia Oliveira; Orlanda Povoa

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation is not a new problem although world-wide population awareness is increasing. This issue has terrible environmental, social and economic consequences due to the over-exploitation of the natural resources and to alternative land uses which are more profitable in the short term. The combat and mitigation of deforestation is one of the biggest challenges for the 21st Century in order to achieve the Millennium Goals and a global sustainable development at all levels of human activiti...

  18. Commodity production in Brazil: Combining zero deforestation and zero illegality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea A. Azevedo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article documents the degree of noncompliance of soy producers in the Amazon portion of Mato Grosso with Brazil’s Forest Code and addresses the importance of market demands in shifting agricultural production and land occupation towards zero deforestation. By using a sample composed of the boundaries of 9,113 properties (72.5% of soy in the region we assessed: a compliance with Forest Code legal reserve requirements (a percentage of the property must have its original vegetation kept undisturbed; and compared it to b compliance with the zero deforestation criterion of the soy moratorium. We found that 82% of the sampled properties have not deforested since 2008, thus complying with the soy moratorium. However, approximately 65% out of these 82% are noncompliant with Forest Code legal reserve requirements. This situation is even worse in the Cerrado portion of Mato Grosso. Even though the soy moratorium criterion is only applicable to the Amazon biome, the Forest Code is applicable nationwide. Despite legal reserve requirements being much lower (35% of the property in the Cerrado, as opposed to 80% in the Amazon, almost 70% of sampled properties were noncompliant with the Forest Code. From this analysis we concluded that while there was a role for consumer-driven market demand for zero deforestation soy production, there is still a need (and opportunity to implement purchasing and financing criteria to promote compliance with Forest Code requirements in regards to legal reserve deficits. We believe that if this succeeds, it will drive a process of restoration and compensation of Forest Code deficits, strengthening public policy as well as reducing economic distortions between those who have and have not complied with Forest Code requirements.

  19. Using spatial metrics and surveys for the assessment of trans-boundary deforestation in protected areas of the Maya Mountain Massif: Belize-Guatemala border.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicas, S D; Omine, K; Ford, J B; Sugimura, K; Yoshida, K

    2017-02-01

    Understanding the trans-boundary deforestation history and patterns in protected areas along the Belize-Guatemala border is of regional and global importance. To assess deforestation history and patterns in our study area along a section of the Belize-Guatemala border, we incorporated multi-temporal deforestation rate analysis and spatial metrics with survey results. This multi-faceted approach provides spatial analysis with relevant insights from local stakeholders to better understand historic deforestation dynamics, spatial characteristics and human perspectives regarding the underlying causes thereof. During the study period 1991-2014, forest cover declined in Belize's protected areas: Vaca Forest Reserve 97.88%-87.62%, Chiquibul National Park 99.36%-92.12%, Caracol Archeological Reserve 99.47%-78.10% and Colombia River Forest Reserve 89.22%-78.38% respectively. A comparison of deforestation rates and spatial metrics indices indicated that between time periods 1991-1995 and 2012-2014 deforestation and fragmentation increased in protected areas. The major underlying causes, drivers, impacts, and barriers to bi-national collaboration and solutions of deforestation along the Belize-Guatemala border were identified by community leaders and stakeholders. The Mann-Whitney U test identified significant differences between leaders and stakeholders regarding the ranking of challenges faced by management organizations in the Maya Mountain Massif, except for the lack of assessment and quantification of deforestation (LD, SH: 18.67, 23.25, U = 148, p > 0.05). The survey results indicated that failure to integrate buffer communities, coordinate among managing organizations and establish strong bi-national collaboration has resulted in continued ecological and environmental degradation. The information provided by this research should aid managing organizations in their continued aim to implement effective deforestation mitigation strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier

  20. Deforestation in Brazil: motivations, journeys and tendencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, J. C.; Ferreira, A. J. D.; Esteves, T. C. J.; Bento, C. P. M.

    2012-04-01

    José Carlos Leite1; António José Dinis Ferreira2; Tanya Cristina de Jesus Esteves2; Célia Patrícia Martins Bento2 1Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso, Brazil; 2IPC - Escola Superior Agrária de Coimbra, Portugal Over the last three decades, deforestation in Brazil occurred systematically in the area known as the "arc of deforestation", an extensive geographical area located in the interface of the Cerrado and the Amazon biomes. This work encompasses the reasons, causes and/or motivations of that recent deforestation, focusing on the Central-West and Northern regions. A number of reasons will be presented, seeking to build an approach able to identify the deepest roots of deforestation of those regions. Our actions over the environment are framed by our cultural matrix that stream from a western philosophic attitude. This way, to understand the framework where the deforestation actions are justified requires a multidisciplinary approach to understand the deforestation of the Cerrado and Amazon biomes, since the motivations for forest destruction in Brazil are complex and not entirely understood within the domains of a single disciplinary area. To search for an isolated cause to understand the recent deforestation can only be plausible if we ignore information on what actually happens. The methodology used in this work is based on a bibliographical revision, analysis of georeferrenced information, participative processes implementation and observation of stakeholder behavior, and field research. It departs from a general vision on deforestation that initially occurred at the littoral region, by the Atlantic Rainforest, right after the arrival of the Europeans, and throughout the centuries penetrates towards the interior, hitting the Cerrado and Amazon biomes. In this last case, we focused on the Vale do Alto Guaporé region, near Bolivia, where the intensity of the deforestation was verified from 1970 to 1990. Ultimately, the final result is a mosaic of reasons

  1. Forest baseline and deforestation map of the Dominican Republic through the analysis of time series of MODIS data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florencia Sangermano

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation is one of the major threats to habitats in the Dominican Republic. In this work we present a forest baseline for the year 2000 and a deforestation map for the year 2011. Maps were derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiometer (MODIS products at 250 m resolution. The vegetation continuous fields product (MOD44B for the year 2000 was used to produce the forest baseline, while the vegetation indices product (MOD13Q1 was used to detect change between 2000 and 2011. Major findings based on the data presented here are reported in the manuscript “Habitat suitability and protection status of four species of amphibians in the Dominican Republic” (Sangermano et al., Appl. Geogr., [7].63, 2015, 55–65

  2. The national determinants of deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Rudel, Thomas K.

    2013-01-01

    For decades, the dynamics of tropical deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have defied easy explanation. The rates of deforestation have been lower than elsewhere in the tropics, and the driving forces evident in other places, government new land settlement schemes and industrialized agriculture, have largely been absent in SSA. The context and causes for African deforestation become clearer through an analysis of new, national-level data on forest cover change for SSA countries for the ...

  3. The process of deforestation in weak democracies and the role of Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obydenkova, Anastassia; Nazarov, Zafar; Salahodjaev, Raufhon

    2016-07-01

    This article examines the interconnection between national intelligence, political institutions, and the mismanagement of public resources (deforestations). The paper examines the reasons for deforestation and investigates the factors accountable for it. The analysis builds on authors-compiled cross-national dataset on 185 countries over the time period of twenty years, from 1990 to 2010. We find that, first, nation's intelligence reduces significantly the level of deforestation in a state. Moreover, the nations' IQ seems to play an offsetting role in the natural resource conservation (forest management) in the countries with weak democratic institutions. The analysis also discovered the presence of the U-shaped relationship between democracy and deforestation. Intelligence sheds more light on this interconnection and explains the results. Our results are robust to various sample selection strategies and model specifications. The main implication from our study is that intelligence not only shapes formal rules and informal regulations such as social trust, norms and traditions but also it has the ability to reverse the paradoxical process known as "resource curse." The study contributes to better understanding of reasons of deforestation and shed light on the debated impact of political regime on forest management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Illegal deforestation in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Travis, A.J.

    2005-01-01

    Dr. Dale Lewis, a co-PI on the grant and the originator of the COMACO model, points out recent illegal deforestation in one of Zambia's National Forests to Dr. Alfonso Torres, another co-PI on the grant (from Cornell). LTRA-2 (An Agricultural Markets Model for Biodiversity Conservation)

  5. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. The Environmental Legacy of Modern Tropical Deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Smith, Matthew J; Wearn, Oliver R; Purves, Drew; Ewers, Robert M

    2016-08-22

    Tropical deforestation has caused a significant share of carbon emissions and species losses, but historical patterns have rarely been explicitly considered when estimating these impacts [1]. A deforestation event today leads to a time-delayed future release of carbon, from the eventual decay either of forest products or of slash left at the site [2]. Similarly, deforestation often does not result in the immediate loss of species, and communities may exhibit a process of "relaxation" to their new equilibrium over time [3]. We used a spatially explicit land cover change model [4] to reconstruct the annual rates and spatial patterns of tropical deforestation that occurred between 1950 and 2009 in the Amazon, in the Congo Basin, and across Southeast Asia. Using these patterns, we estimated the resulting gross vegetation carbon emissions [2, 5] and species losses over time [6]. Importantly, we accounted for the time lags inherent in both the release of carbon and the extinction of species. We show that even if deforestation had completely halted in 2010, time lags ensured there would still be a carbon emissions debt of at least 8.6 petagrams, equivalent to 5-10 years of global deforestation, and an extinction debt of more than 140 bird, mammal, and amphibian forest-specific species, which if paid, would increase the number of 20(th)-century extinctions in these groups by 120%. Given the magnitude of these debts, commitments to reduce emissions and biodiversity loss are unlikely to be realized without specific actions that directly address this damaging environmental legacy. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Deforestation and cultivation mobilize mercury from topsoil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamby, Rebecca L; Hammerschmidt, Chad R; Costello, David M; Lamborg, Carl H; Runkle, James R

    2015-11-01

    Terrestrial biomass and soils are a primary global reservoir of mercury (Hg) derived from natural and anthropogenic sources; however, relatively little is known about the fate and stability of Hg in the surface soil reservoir and its susceptibility to change as a result of deforestation and cultivation. In southwest Ohio, we measured Hg concentrations in soils of deciduous old- and new-growth forests, as well as fallow grassland and agricultural soils that had once been forested to examine how, over decadal to century time scales, man-made deforestation and cultivation influence Hg mobility from temperate surface soils. Mercury concentrations in surficial soils were significantly greater in the old-growth than new-growth forest, and both forest soils had greater Hg concentrations than cultivated and fallow fields. Differences in Hg:lead ratios between old-growth forest and agricultural topsoils suggest that about half of the Hg lost from deforested and cultivated Ohio soils may have been volatilized and the other half eroded. The estimated mobilization potential of Hg as a result of deforestation was 4.1 mg m(-2), which was proportional to mobilization potentials measured at multiple locations in the Amazon relative to concentrations in forested surface soils. Based on this relationship and an estimate of the global average of Hg concentrations in forested soils, we approximate that about 550 M mol of Hg has been mobilized globally from soil as a result of deforestation during the past two centuries. This estimate is comparable to, if not greater than, the amount of anthropogenic Hg hypothesized by others to have been sequestered by the soil reservoir since Industrialization. Our results suggest that deforestation and soil cultivation are significant anthropogenic processes that exacerbate Hg mobilization from soil and its cycling in the environment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. [Deforestation and overpopulation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, A A

    1995-07-01

    Ecological damage and irrational deforestation in El Salvador are very serious problems with potentially catastrophic consequences in the near future. Each year the amount of rainfall declines precipitously, the rivers lose volume, temperatures rise to levels unheard of in the rainy season, and ecological balance is disturbed, with disappearance of entire species of plants and animals. Desertification threatens future generations of Salvadorans. The causes of deforestation are multiple, but ill-conceived urbanization policy and immoderate population growth are two important factors. The increased population requires new housing, electric lines, aqueducts, clinics, and schools. When conditions are unfavorable, marginal zones or squatter settlements lacking all these basic services proliferate. With their concentrations of waste and environmental degradation, they are converted into foci of infectious disease and social pathology. Much scarce agricultural land has been lost to urban development as the population grows uncontrollably in the nation's small area.

  9. Deforestation reduction initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, P.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on major adverse effects of global warming predicted for the United States and other mid- latitude countries. Within that, 15 to 25% of global warming results from clearing of tropical rainforests. Third world population growth forces landless rural populations to migrate and over exploit tropical rainforests, a problem exacerbated by government colonization policies in such countries as Brazil, Peru, and Indonesia. The resulting agriculture is unsustainable and leads to further deforestation and migration to urban centers. Research has shown that these trends can be reversed. An integrated approach consisting of development and application of sustainable management technologies for tropical soils and appropriate government policies will eliminate the pressure for further deforestation. Some management technologies are available and other evolving which allow continuous production. For every hectare put under sustainable management five to ten hectares of forest are saved each year

  10. Online deforestation detection

    OpenAIRE

    Diaz, Emiliano

    2017-01-01

    Deforestation detection using satellite images can make an important contribution to forest management. Current approaches can be broadly divided into those that compare two images taken at similar periods of the year and those that monitor changes by using multiple images taken during the growing season. The CMFDA algorithm described in Zhu et al. (2012) is an algorithm that builds on the latter category by implementing a year-long, continuous, time-series based approach to monitoring images...

  11. Emissions and removals from land-use, land use change and forestry activities in a post-Kyoto regime - quantitative analysis of a framework for reducing deforestation; Beruecksichtigung von Treibhausgasemissionen und -festlegungen durch Landnutzungsmassnahmen (LULUCF) im Post-Kioto-Regime - quantitative Analyse zur Einbeziehung von reduzierter Entwaldung in ein kuenftiges Klimaregime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herold, Anke; Scheffler, Margarethe [Oeko-Institut e.V., Freiburg (Germany); Cunha Zeri, Gisleine; Dietz, Johannes; Freibauer, Annette; Huettner, Michael; Mollicone, Danilo [Max-Planck Institut fuer Biogeochemie, Jena (Germany); Jung, Martina [ECOFYS GmbH, Koeln (Germany)

    2008-11-15

    Some developing countries (Papua New Guinea, Costa Rica and others) proposed to include emission reductions from reduced deforestation in a post-2012 climate regime. This proposal has gained broad support under the UNFCCC negotiations. This report aims at assessing the implications and implementation needs of a future international regime that provides compensation for reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries. This assessment includes an analysis of data availability for deforestation and forest area changes and related losses of biomass and GHG emissions, an attempt to quantify the relationship between deforestation drivers and deforestation rates; a detailed discussion of options related to the establishment of reference emission levels and accounting issues for reducing deforestation; an approximation of the possible magnitude of credits from a RED mechanism and a discussion of approaches to implement a compensation scheme for reducing emissions in a post-2012 climate regime. (orig.)

  12. Reduced Deforestation and Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick Doupe

    2014-01-01

    The clearing of forests for agricultural land and other marketable purposes is a well-trodden path of economic development. With these private benefits from deforestation come external costs: emissions from deforestation currently account for 12 per cent of global carbon emissions. A widespread intervention in reducing emissions from deforestation will affect the paths of agricultural expansion and economic growth of lower income nations. To investigate these processes, this paper presents a ...

  13. Researching illegal logging and deforestation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical deforestation such as in the Amazon can be studied well from a green criminological perspective. Ethnographic research methods form a useful way to get insight into the dynamics and complexity of tropical deforestation, which often is illegal. This article gives an account of various

  14. Tropical deforestation : an economic perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Soest, D.P.

    1998-01-01

    The main aim of this study is to increase insight in the underlying causes of deforestation and forest degradation by analysing the factors that induce unsustainable land use. Several types of actors involved in the deforestation process are taken into account: the decision-making processes of

  15. Regional hydro-climatic impacts of contemporary Amazonian deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Jaya

    More than 17% of the Amazon rainforest has been cleared in the past three decades triggering important climatological and societal impacts. This thesis is devoted to identifying and explaining the regional hydroclimatic impacts of this change employing multidecadal satellite observations and numerical simulations providing an integrated perspective on this topic. The climatological nature of this study motivated the implementation and application of a cloud detection technique to a new geostationary satellite dataset. The resulting sub daily, high spatial resolution, multidecadal time series facilitated the detection of trends and variability in deforestation triggered cloud cover changes. The analysis was complemented by satellite precipitation, reanalysis and ground based datasets and attribution with the variable resolution Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Model. Contemporary Amazonian deforestation affects spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers. But, unlike the well-studied impacts of a few kilometers scale deforestation, the climatic response to contemporary, large scale deforestation is neither well observed nor well understood. Employing satellite datasets, this thesis shows a transition in the regional hydroclimate accompanying increasing scales of deforestation, with downwind deforested regions receiving 25% more and upwind deforested regions receiving 25% less precipitation from the deforested area mean. Simulations robustly reproduce these shifts when forced with increasing deforestation alone, suggesting a negligible role of large-scale decadal climate variability in causing the shifts. Furthermore, deforestation-induced surface roughness variations are found necessary to reproduce the observed spatial patterns in recent times illustrating the strong scale-sensitivity of the climatic response to Amazonian deforestation. This phenomenon, inconsequential during the wet season, is found to substantially affect the regional hydroclimate in the local dry and parts of

  16. Planning for robust reserve networks using uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moilanen, A.; Runge, M.C.; Elith, Jane; Tyre, A.; Carmel, Y.; Fegraus, E.; Wintle, B.A.; Burgman, M.; Ben-Haim, Y.

    2006-01-01

    Planning land-use for biodiversity conservation frequently involves computer-assisted reserve selection algorithms. Typically such algorithms operate on matrices of species presence?absence in sites, or on species-specific distributions of model predicted probabilities of occurrence in grid cells. There are practically always errors in input data?erroneous species presence?absence data, structural and parametric uncertainty in predictive habitat models, and lack of correspondence between temporal presence and long-run persistence. Despite these uncertainties, typical reserve selection methods proceed as if there is no uncertainty in the data or models. Having two conservation options of apparently equal biological value, one would prefer the option whose value is relatively insensitive to errors in planning inputs. In this work we show how uncertainty analysis for reserve planning can be implemented within a framework of information-gap decision theory, generating reserve designs that are robust to uncertainty. Consideration of uncertainty involves modifications to the typical objective functions used in reserve selection. Search for robust-optimal reserve structures can still be implemented via typical reserve selection optimization techniques, including stepwise heuristics, integer-programming and stochastic global search.

  17. The Impact of Amazonian Deforestation on Dry-Season Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Li-Ming; Surratt, Jason; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. We analyze geosynchronous infrared satellite data with respect percent cloudiness, and analyze rain estimates from microwave sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. We conclude that in the dry-season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, deep convective cloudiness, as well as rainfall occurrence, all increase over the deforested and non-forested (savanna) regions. This is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region's varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift toward afternoon hours in the deforested and savanna regions, compared to the forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data revealed that only in August did rainfall amounts increase over the deforested region.

  18. Threshold responses of Amazonian stream fishes to timing and extent of deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brejão, Gabriel L; Hoeinghaus, David J; Pérez-Mayorga, María Angélica; Ferraz, Silvio F B; Casatti, Lilian

    2017-12-06

    Deforestation is a primary driver of biodiversity change through habitat loss and fragmentation. Stream biodiversity may not respond to deforestation in a simple linear relationship. Rather, threshold responses to extent and timing of deforestation may occur. Identification of critical deforestation thresholds is needed for effective conservation and management. We tested for threshold responses of fish species and functional groups to degree of watershed and riparian zone deforestation and time since impact in 75 streams in the western Brazilian Amazon. We used remote sensing to assess deforestation from 1984 to 2011. Fish assemblages were sampled with seines and dip nets in a standardized manner. Fish species (n = 84) were classified into 20 functional groups based on ecomorphological traits associated with habitat use, feeding, and locomotion. Threshold responses were quantified using threshold indicator taxa analysis. Negative threshold responses to deforestation were common and consistently occurred at very low levels of deforestation (70% deforestation and >10 years after impact. Findings were similar at the community level for both taxonomic and functional analyses. Because most negative threshold responses occurred at low levels of deforestation and soon after impact, even minimal change is expected to negatively affect biodiversity. Delayed positive threshold responses to extreme deforestation by a few species do not offset the loss of sensitive taxa and likely contribute to biotic homogenization. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  19. Visualizing the Impacts of Deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortner, Rosanne W.

    1992-01-01

    Presents two activities with investigation procedures to aid students in examining the extent and impact of biomass burning and deforestation in Brazil as an example of the global problem. Provides background information, tables, and diagrams. (five references) (MCO)

  20. Spatial and multi-temporal analysis of deforestation and quantification of the remnant forests on Porto Rico Island, Paraná, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Batista Campos

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available The process of land occupation by the state of Paraná practically decimated its forests. Presently, only 7% from a total area of 83.41% is covered by forests. Most of them are now concentrated in the "Serra do Mar" and in the Iguaçu National Park. With regard to forest cover the most critical region is situated in the northwestern of the state with less than 1% of its area covered by forest. This restricted area mainly consists of conservation units and the islands of the high Paraná River floodplain. The present study consists of a spatial and multi-temporal analysis of deforestation and the quantification of the remnant forests on Porto Rico island (22º45'S; 53º15'W, which have their occupation history linked to the colonization process of the region. Historical aerial photographs of this region were used and the relationship of deforestation with the process of colonization and social transformation of the region is discussed.O processo de ocupação das terras do Paraná praticamente dizimou as florestas do Estado, que originalmente possuía 83,41% de sua área total coberta com florestas. Atualmente remanescem aproximadamente 7% da área com florestas, concentradas na Serra do Mar e no Parque Nacional do Iguaçu. Na região noroeste, a situação é mais crítica, com menos de 1% de sua área coberta por florestas, concentradas, principalmente, em unidades de conservação e nas ilhas da planície de inundação do alto rio Paraná. Esta planície é formada por uma ampla calha aluvial, com inúmeros canais, lagoas e ilhas, que têm sua história de ocupação ligadas ao processo de colonização na região. Neste trabalho, é realizada uma análise espacial e multi-temporal dos desflorestamentos e uma quantificação das florestas remanescentes da ilha Porto Rico (22º45'S; 53º15'W, por meio de fotografias aéreas históricas da região e discutidas as relações destes desflorestamentos com os processo de colonização e transforma

  1. Deforestation in Sub- Sahara Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Diarrassouba, Malick; Boubacar, Inoussa

    2009-01-01

    According to FAO (2005) about 13 million hectares of the word’s forest are lost due to deforestation. Naoto (2006) found Africa to lead the list of countries with the highest rate of deforestation. This worrisome situation is further aggravated by the possible negative impacts of climate change due to an increase in the mean global temperature. Evidence supports that Africa is most likely to suffer the most the devastating impacts of natural calamities such as droughts and floods. This paper ...

  2. Researching illegal logging and deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2014-01-01

    Tropical deforestation such as in the Amazon can be studied well from a green criminological perspective. Ethnographic research methods form a useful way to get insight into the dynamics and complexity of tropical deforestation, which often is illegal. This article gives an account of various ethnographic visits to the rainforests of the Amazon in the period 2003-2014. Ethnographic methods provide insight into the overlap between the legal and illegal, the functioning (or not) of state instit...

  3. Deforestation Profile of Regency Level In Sumatra

    OpenAIRE

    Rijal, Syamsu

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation Profile Sumatera Islands is an island with the highest deforestation rate in Indonesia for the of period 1990???2010, even in Southeast Asia. Deforestation assessment based solely on value of deforestation rate. Deforestation rate was not able to be explained and distinguished at areas that still covering a lot of forest, even at areas that less or no forest. The lowest rate results or zero (0) will be significantly better or assessed as undeforested area. This study was deve...

  4. Landscape hydrology. The hydrological legacy of deforestation on global wetlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodward, C; Shulmeister, J; Larsen, J; Jacobsen, G E; Zawadzki, A

    2014-11-14

    Increased catchment erosion and nutrient loading are commonly recognized impacts of deforestation on global wetlands. In contrast, an increase in water availability in deforested catchments is well known in modern studies but is rarely considered when evaluating past human impacts. We used a Budyko water balance approach, a meta-analysis of global wetland response to deforestation, and paleoecological studies from Australasia to explore this issue. After complete deforestation, we demonstrated that water available to wetlands increases by up to 15% of annual precipitation. This can convert ephemeral swamps to permanent lakes or even create new wetlands. This effect is globally significant, with 9 to 12% of wetlands affected, including 20 to 40% of Ramsar wetlands, but is widely unrecognized because human impact studies rarely test for it. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  5. AVHRR for monitoring global tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malingreau, J. P.; Laporte, N.; Tucker, C. J.

    1989-01-01

    Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data have been used to assess the dynamics of forest trnsformations in three parts of the tropical belt. A large portion of the Amazon Basin has been systematically covered by Local Area Coverage (LAC) data in the 1985-1987 period. The analysis of the vegetation index and thermal data led to the identification and measurement of large areas of active deforestation. The Kalimantan/Borneo forest fires were monitored and their impact was evaluated using the Global Area Coverage (GAC) 4 km resolution data. Finally, High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) data have provided preliminary information on current activities taking place at the boundary between the savanna and the forest in the Southern part of West Africa. The AVHRR approach is found to be a highly valuable means for carrying out deforestation assessments in regional and global perspectives.

  6. Amazon Fund: financing deforestation avoidance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Marcovitch

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon Fund, created in 2008 by the Brazilian Federal Government, is managed by Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES. It is a pioneering initiative to fundraise and manage financial resources to cut back deforestation and support sustainable development for 30 million inhabitants in the Amazon Biome. The Amazon Fund has already received more than R$ 1.7 billion in grants (about USD 787 million. This essay analyzes the Amazon Fund's governance and management with focus on its operation and from its stakeholders' perspectives. A combination of research methods includes: documental research, in-depth interviews, and speech analysis. The study offers a comparative analysis of strengths and weaknesses related to its governance. Furthermore, it proposes ways to improve its management towards greater effectiveness. The essay also includes an assessment of the government of Norway, a major donor to the fund. The governments of Norway and Germany, in partnership with Brazil, reveal how important it is to experiment with new means of international cooperation to successfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions through rainforest preservation.

  7. Deforestation Along the Maya Mountain Massif Belize-Guatemala Border

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chicas, S. D.; Omine, K.; Arevalo, B.; Ford, J. B.; Sugimura, K.

    2016-06-01

    In recent years trans-boundary incursions from Petén, Guatemala into Belize's Maya Mountain Massif (MMM) have increased. The incursions are rapidly degrading cultural and natural resources in Belize's protected areas. Given the local, regional and global importance of the MMM and the scarcity of deforestation data, our research team conducted a time series analysis 81 km by 12 km along the Belize-Guatemalan border adjacent to the protected areas of the MMM. Analysis drew on Landsat imagery from 1991 to 2014 to determine historic deforestation rates. The results indicate that the highest deforestation rates in the study area were -1.04% and -6.78% loss of forested area per year in 2012-2014 and 1995-1999 respectively. From 1991 to 2014, forested area decreased from 96.9 % to 85.72 % in Belize and 83.15 % to 31.52 % in Guatemala. During the study period, it was clear that deforestation rates fluctuated in Belize's MMM from one time-period to the next. This seems linked to either a decline in deforestation rates in Guatemala, the vertical expansion of deforestation in Guatemalan forested areas and monitoring. The results of this study urge action to reduce incursions and secure protected areas and remaining forest along the Belize-Guatemalan border.

  8. DEFORESTATION ALONG THE MAYA MOUNTAIN MASSIF BELIZE-GUATEMALA BORDER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. D. Chicas

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years trans-boundary incursions from Petén, Guatemala into Belize’s Maya Mountain Massif (MMM have increased. The incursions are rapidly degrading cultural and natural resources in Belize’s protected areas. Given the local, regional and global importance of the MMM and the scarcity of deforestation data, our research team conducted a time series analysis 81 km by 12 km along the Belize-Guatemalan border adjacent to the protected areas of the MMM. Analysis drew on Landsat imagery from 1991 to 2014 to determine historic deforestation rates. The results indicate that the highest deforestation rates in the study area were −1.04% and −6.78% loss of forested area per year in 2012-2014 and 1995-1999 respectively. From 1991 to 2014, forested area decreased from 96.9 % to 85.72 % in Belize and 83.15 % to 31.52 % in Guatemala. During the study period, it was clear that deforestation rates fluctuated in Belize's MMM from one time-period to the next. This seems linked to either a decline in deforestation rates in Guatemala, the vertical expansion of deforestation in Guatemalan forested areas and monitoring. The results of this study urge action to reduce incursions and secure protected areas and remaining forest along the Belize-Guatemalan border.

  9. Pan-tropical monitoring of deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Achard, F; DeFries, R; Eva, H; Hansen, M; Mayaux, P; Stibig, H-J

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews the technical capabilities for monitoring deforestation from a pan-tropical perspective in response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process, which is studying the technical issues surrounding the ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries. The successful implementation of such policies requires effective forest monitoring systems that are reproducible, provide consistent results, meet standards for mapping accuracy, and can be implemented from national to pan-tropical levels. Remotely sensed data, supported by ground observations, are crucial to such efforts. Recent developments in global to regional monitoring of forests can contribute to reducing the uncertainties in estimates of emissions from deforestation. Monitoring systems at national levels in developing countries can also benefit from pan-tropical and regional observations, mainly by identifying hot spots of change and prioritizing areas for monitoring at finer spatial scales. A pan-tropical perspective is also required to ensure consistency between different national monitoring systems. Data sources already exist to determine baseline periods in the 1990s as historical reference points. Key requirements for implementing such monitoring programs, both at pan-tropical and at national scales, are international commitment of resources to increase capacity, coordination of observations to ensure pan-tropical coverage, access to free or low-cost data, and standardized, consensus protocols for data interpretation and analysis

  10. The national determinants of deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, Thomas K

    2013-01-01

    For decades, the dynamics of tropical deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have defied easy explanation. The rates of deforestation have been lower than elsewhere in the tropics, and the driving forces evident in other places, government new land settlement schemes and industrialized agriculture, have largely been absent in SSA. The context and causes for African deforestation become clearer through an analysis of new, national-level data on forest cover change for SSA countries for the 2000-2005 period. The recent dynamic in SSA varies from dry to wet biomes. Deforestation occurred at faster rates in nations with predominantly dry forests. The wetter Congo basin countries had lower rates of deforestation, in part because tax receipts from oil and mineral industries in this region spurred rural to urban migration, declines in agriculture and increased imports of cereals from abroad. In this respect, the Congo basin countries may be experiencing an oil and mineral fuelled forest transition. Small farmers play a more important role in African deforestation than they do in southeast Asia and Latin America, in part because small-scale agriculture remains one of the few livelihoods open to rural peoples.

  11. Natural Areas Analysis and Evaluation: Oak Ridge Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baranski, Micahel J [self

    2009-11-01

    relatively large in size with mature or old-growth community composition; lack current disturbance factors or potential threats and disturbances; are in excellent condition with good buffers; are places where ecological and evolutionary processes can occur relatively unaffected by humans; and can be reasonably defended and maintained as natural areas in an undeveloped condition. Highly ranked sites are the most significant and should receive the greatest protections. Composite scores of the ranked areas ranged from 1-25.5, with a mean score of 12. The ranked areas were divided into three Priority Groups. Group I, the most highly ranked group, included 20 sites and covered 5189 acres or 15.4% of Reservation lands; Group II included 31 sites and covered 4108 acres; Group III included 19 sites covering 400 acres of Reservation lands. All sites together comprise 9697 acres or 28.8% of Reservation lands. Six sites emerged as clearly the most significant natural areas on the Reservation. The study developed a number of recommendations that should be implemented in order to enhance and refine the natural areas data for the Reservation. There is a clear need for better and standardized ecological community classification and identification. Several areas are proposed for merger into larger units, and some new areas are proposed for inclusion and recognition in a natural areas system. Various gaps and discrepancies in the existing data are described and should be corrected. Other recommendations are made, including the development of a corollary system that can accommodate aquatic natural areas. The study relied primarily on the synthesis of information from many sources and from limited reconnaissance and direct observation during field work to produce a methodology for assessing natural area importance and assigning priorities for protection. Many instances of incomplete, missing or conflicting information made it difficult to complete thorough analysis. Further review and

  12. Migration and Deforestation in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Rivayani Darmawan; Stephan Klasen; Nunung Nuryartono

    2015-01-01

    Indonesia now has the highest deforestation rate in the world, with an average increase of about 47,600 ha per year. As a result, the nation is one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gases in the world and is putting its rich biodiversity at risk. Although the literature discussing the political economy of Indonesia commercial's logging is growing, only a small amount focuses on the relation-ship between migration and deforestation. Migration may contribute to the forest cover change, as m...

  13. Deforestation since independence: A quantitative assessment of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Deforestation since independence: A quantitative assessment of four decades of land-cover change in Malawi. ... pressure and demographic factors are important predictors of deforestation rate within our study area. Keywords: afforestation, Africa, deforestation, drivers, land-use change, reforestation, rural, urban ...

  14. Implications of deforestation and desertification on sustainable ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examines the implications of deforestation and desertification in sustainable agriculture. The problems of deforestation and desertification were examined as they affect land and agricultural productivity. The socio-economic implications of deforestation and desertification in sustainable agriculture were equally ...

  15. A public finance analysis of multiple reserve requirements

    OpenAIRE

    Espinosa-Vega, Marco; Russell, Steven

    1998-01-01

    This paper analyzes multiple reserve requirements of the type that have been imposed by a number of developing countries. We show that previous theoretical work on this topic has not succeeded in providing a social welfare rationale for the existence of multiple reserve requirements: in the basic reserve requirements model, any allocation that can be supported by a multiple-reserves regime can also be supported by a single-bond reserve requirement. We go on to present extended versions of the...

  16. Multiscale analysis of deforestation risk due to commodity crop expansion in sub-Saharan Africa and the role of non-industrial producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ordway, E.; Asner, G. P.; Naylor, R. L.; Nkongho, R.; Lambin, E.

    2017-12-01

    Rapid integration of global agricultural markets and subsequent cropland displacement in recent decades increased large-scale tropical deforestation in South America and Southeast Asia. Growing land scarcity and more stringent land use regulations in these regions could incentivize the offshoring of export-oriented commodity crop production to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We assess the effects of domestic- and export-oriented agricultural expansion on deforestation in SSA in recent decades at the global, regional and local scales. Using Cameroon as a case-study, we explore the influence of emerging oil palm expansion on deforestation in greater depth. We found that commodity crops are expanding in SSA, increasing pressure on tropical forests. Four Congo Basin countries, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Cote d'Ivoire were most at risk in terms of exposure, vulnerability and pressures from agricultural expansion. These countries averaged the highest percent forest cover (58% ±17.9) and lowest proportions of potentially available cropland outside forest areas (1% ±0.9). Foreign investment in these countries was concentrated in oil palm production (81%), with a median investment area of 41,582 thousand ha. Based on remote sensing and field survey results, however, medium- and large-scale non-industrial producers are driving a substantial fraction of the oil palm expansion leading to deforestation in Cameroon. Additionally, unlike Southeast Asia, oil palm expansion in sub-Saharan Africa is associated primarily with domestic market demands. In contrast, cocoa, the fastest expanding export-oriented crop across SSA, accounted for 57% of global expansion in 2000-2013 at a rate of 132 thousand ha yr-1, yet only amounted to 0.9% of foreign land investment. Commodity crop expansion in SSA appears largely driven by small- and medium-scale farmers rather than industrial plantations. Findings highlight that, although most agricultural expansion was associated with domestic demand, there

  17. Deforestation impacts on soil organic carbon stocks in the Semiarid Chaco Region, Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarino, Sebastián Horacio; Studdert, Guillermo Alberto; Baldassini, Pablo; Cendoya, María Gabriela; Ciuffoli, Lucía; Mastrángelo, Matias; Piñeiro, Gervasio

    2017-01-01

    Land use change affects soil organic carbon (SOC) and generates CO 2 emissions. Moreover, SOC depletion entails degradation of soil functions that support ecosystem services. Large areas covered by dry forests have been cleared in the Semiarid Chaco Region of Argentina for cropping expansion. However, deforestation impacts on the SOC stock and its distribution in the soil profile have been scarcely reported. We assessed these impacts based on the analysis of field data along a time-since-deforestation-for-cropping chronosequence, and remote sensing indices. Soil organic C was determined up to 100cm depth and physically fractionated into mineral associated organic carbon (MAOC) and particulate organic C (POC). Models describing vertical distribution of SOC were fitted. Total SOC, POC and MAOC stocks decreased markedly with increasing cropping age. Particulate organic C was the most sensitive fraction to cultivation. After 10yr of cropping SOC loss was around 30%, with greater POC loss (near 60%) and smaller MAOC loss (near 15%), at 0-30cm depth. Similar relative SOC losses were observed in deeper soil layers (30-60 and 60-100cm). Deforestation and subsequent cropping also modified SOC vertical distribution. Soil organic C loss was negatively associated with the proportion of maize in the rotation and total crop biomass inputs, but positively associated with the proportion of soybean in the rotation. Without effective land use polices, deforestation and agricultural expansion can lead to rapid soil degradation and reductions in the provision of important ecosystem services. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spracklen, D. V.; Garcia-Carreras, L.

    2015-11-01

    We completed a meta-analysis of regional and global climate model simulations (n = 96) of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on Amazon basin rainfall. Across all simulations, mean (±1σ) change in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall was -12 ± 11%. Variability in simulated rainfall was not explained by differences in model resolution or surface parameters. Across all simulations we find a negative linear relationship between rainfall and deforestation extent, although individual studies often simulate a nonlinear response. Using the linear relationship, we estimate that deforestation in 2010 has reduced annual mean rainfall across the Amazon basin by 1.8 ± 0.3%, less than the interannual variability in observed rainfall. This may explain why a reduction in Amazon rainfall has not consistently been observed. We estimate that business-as-usual deforestation (based on deforestation rates prior to 2004) would lead to an 8.1 ± 1.4% reduction in annual mean Amazon basin rainfall by 2050, greater than natural variability.

  19. Loss in species caused by tropical deforestation and their recovery through management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariel E. Lugo; John A. Parrotta; Sandra Brown

    1993-01-01

    The loss of species as a result of deforestation and degradation of tropical forest lands is widely discussed. Models based on island biogeography theory are used to evaluate the relationship between extinctions of species and deforestation. The analysis shows that natural resiliency causes the models to overestimate the rates of species extinctions for given...

  20. Empirical analysis of optimal strategic petroleum reserve in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Yi-Ming; Wu, Gang; Liu, Lan-Cui; Fan, Ying

    2008-01-01

    The Chinese government began to prepare for the establishment of strategic petroleum reserve in March 2004. Therefore, answering the question of what level of strategic petroleum reserve would be suitable for China's future economic development becomes essential. Using a decision tree model based on a cost function, this paper quantifies China's optimal strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2005-2020. This approach provides a methodology reference for further quantified discussion on China's SPR. Our results show that: for economic development and security of the energy supply, the strategic petroleum reserve should be the equivalent of 30-60 days of net oil import for an optimal solution, when the oil price is $ 50/bbl; with a reserve of an equivalent of 60-90 days of net oil import to have an optimal solution when oil price is $20-35/bbl. (author)

  1. Researching Illegal Logging and Deforestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim Boekhout van Solinge

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical deforestation such as in the Amazon can be studied well from a green criminological perspective. Ethnographic research methods form a useful way to get insight into the dynamics and complexity of tropical deforestation, which often is illegal. This article gives an account of various ethnographic visits to the rainforests of the Amazon in the period 2003-2014. Ethnographic methods provide insight into the overlap between the legal and illegal, the functioning (or not of state institutions, the power of (corporate lobbies, and why tropical deforestation correlates with crimes such as corruption and violence. The use of ethnographic methods in forest areas where trustworthy state actors and institutions are not very present can also present danger and raise ethical issues (such as when the researcher, for reasons of safety, does not present as a criminological researcher. However, a large advantage of ethnographic visits to tropical rainforests is that they allow the gathering of local views and voices, which rarely reach the international level. These local views lead to interesting contradictions at the international level where corporate views and lobbies dominate.

  2. Deforestation and avian infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sehgal, R N M

    2010-03-15

    In this time of unprecedented global change, infectious diseases will impact humans and wildlife in novel and unknown ways. Climate change, the introduction of invasive species, urbanization, agricultural practices and the loss of biodiversity have all been implicated in increasing the spread of infectious pathogens. In many regards, deforestation supersedes these other global events in terms of its immediate potential global effects in both tropical and temperate regions. The effects of deforestation on the spread of pathogens in birds are largely unknown. Birds harbor many of the same types of pathogens as humans and in addition can spread infectious agents to humans and other wildlife. It is thought that avifauna have gone extinct due to infectious diseases and many are presently threatened, especially endemic island birds. It is clear that habitat degradation can pose a direct threat to many bird species but it is uncertain how these alterations will affect disease transmission and susceptibility to disease. The migration and dispersal of birds can also change with habitat degradation, and thus expose populations to novel pathogens. Some recent work has shown that the results of landscape transformation can have confounding effects on avian malaria, other haemosporidian parasites and viruses. Now with advances in many technologies, including mathematical and computer modeling, genomics and satellite tracking, scientists have tools to further research the disease ecology of deforestation. This research will be imperative to help predict and prevent outbreaks that could affect avifauna, humans and other wildlife worldwide.

  3. The Reserve Policies of Nations: A Comparative Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Weitz, Richard

    2007-01-01

    .... American defense planners should therefore keep abreast of ongoing alterations in these countries' reserve components and, in certain cases, might wish to adjust their own forces and policies in response...

  4. Polyphenols distributions and reserve substances analysis in cacao somatic embryogenesis

    OpenAIRE

    Adriana María Gallego Rúa; Ana María Henao Ramírez; Aura Inés Urrea Trujillo; Lucía Atehortúa Garcés

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACTIn order to understand the causes of lack of regeneration in cacao somatic embryos, two cacao varieties with different responses to regeneration potential were described based on their capacity to store different compounds. It is well known that seed reserves play a central role in the regenerative capability of somatic embryos; thus, we followed histochemical changes and reserve fluctuations of proteins, polysaccharides and polyphenols during somatic embryogenesis (SE) in the two cac...

  5. POLYPHENOLS DISTRIBUTION AND RESERVE SUBSTANCES ANALYSIS IN CACAO SOMATIC EMBRYOGENESIS

    OpenAIRE

    GALLEGO RÚA, Adriana María; HENAO RAMÍREZ, Ana María; URREA TRUJILLO, Aura Inés; ATEHORTÚA GARCÉS, Lucía

    2016-01-01

    In order to understand the causes of lack of regeneration in cacao somatic embryos, two cacao varieties with different responses to regeneration potential were described based on their capacity to store different compounds. It is well known that seed reserves play a central role in the regenerative capability of somatic embryos; thus, we followed histochemical changes and reserve fluctuations of proteins, polysaccharides and polyphenols during somatic embryogenesis (SE) in the two cacao varie...

  6. Defense Travel System: an analysis of the system's reservation module

    OpenAIRE

    Logan, Anita Guevara

    2008-01-01

    MBA Professional Report The purpose of this project is to determine if the DTS reservation module is in compliance based with the standards set by the DOD. By examining flights given in DTS and comparing them to a commercial online travel company (Expedia) will determine whether the implementation of ITA software in 2007, as part of the renovation process is effective and that the reservation module currently meeting standards. Another purpose is to determine if the system has improved...

  7. Carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Numata, Izaya; Cochrane, Mark A; Souza, Carlos M Jr; Sales, Marcio H

    2011-01-01

    Forest-fragmentation-related edge effects are one of the major causes of forest degradation in Amazonia and their spatio-temporal dynamics are highly influenced by annual deforestation patterns. Rapid biomass collapse due to edge effects in forest fragments has been reported in the Brazilian Amazon; however the collective impacts of this process on Amazonian carbon fluxes are poorly understood. We estimated biomass loss and carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fragmentation related to edge effects on the basis of the INPE (Brazilian National Space Research Institute) PRODES deforestation data and forest biomass volume data. The areas and ages of edge forests were calculated annually and the corresponding biomass loss and carbon emissions from these forest edges were estimated using published rates of biomass decay and decomposition corresponding to the areas and ages of edge forests. Our analysis estimated carbon fluxes from deforestation (4195 Tg C) and edge forest (126-221 Tg C) for 2001-10 in the Brazilian Amazon. The impacts of varying rates of deforestation on regional forest fragmentation and carbon fluxes were also investigated, with the focus on two periods: 2001-5 (high deforestation rates) and 2006-10 (low deforestation rates). Edge-released carbon accounted for 2.6-4.5% of deforestation-related carbon emissions. However, the relative importance of carbon emissions from forest fragmentation increased from 1.7-3.0% to 3.3-5.6% of the respective deforestation emissions between the two contrasting deforestation rates. Edge-related carbon fluxes are of increasing importance for basin-wide carbon accounting, especially as regards ongoing reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) efforts in Brazilian Amazonia.

  8. Carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fragmentation in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numata, Izaya; Cochrane, Mark A.; Souza, Carlos M., Jr.; Sales, Marcio H.

    2011-10-01

    Forest-fragmentation-related edge effects are one of the major causes of forest degradation in Amazonia and their spatio-temporal dynamics are highly influenced by annual deforestation patterns. Rapid biomass collapse due to edge effects in forest fragments has been reported in the Brazilian Amazon; however the collective impacts of this process on Amazonian carbon fluxes are poorly understood. We estimated biomass loss and carbon emissions from deforestation and forest fragmentation related to edge effects on the basis of the INPE (Brazilian National Space Research Institute) PRODES deforestation data and forest biomass volume data. The areas and ages of edge forests were calculated annually and the corresponding biomass loss and carbon emissions from these forest edges were estimated using published rates of biomass decay and decomposition corresponding to the areas and ages of edge forests. Our analysis estimated carbon fluxes from deforestation (4195 Tg C) and edge forest (126-221 Tg C) for 2001-10 in the Brazilian Amazon. The impacts of varying rates of deforestation on regional forest fragmentation and carbon fluxes were also investigated, with the focus on two periods: 2001-5 (high deforestation rates) and 2006-10 (low deforestation rates). Edge-released carbon accounted for 2.6-4.5% of deforestation-related carbon emissions. However, the relative importance of carbon emissions from forest fragmentation increased from 1.7-3.0% to 3.3-5.6% of the respective deforestation emissions between the two contrasting deforestation rates. Edge-related carbon fluxes are of increasing importance for basin-wide carbon accounting, especially as regards ongoing reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) efforts in Brazilian Amazonia.

  9. [A phylogenetic analysis of plant communities of Teberda Biosphere Reserve].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shulakov, A A; Egorov, A V; Onipchenko, V G

    2016-01-01

    Phylogenetic analysis of communities is based on the comparison of distances on the phylogenetic tree between species of a community under study and those distances in random samples taken out of local flora. It makes it possible to determine to what extent a community composition is formed by more closely related species (i.e., "clustered") or, on the opposite, it is more even and includes species that are less related with each other. The first case is usually interpreted as a result of strong influence caused by abiotic factors, due to which species with similar ecology, a priori more closely related, would remain: In the second case, biotic factors, such as competition, may come to the fore and lead to forming a community out of distant clades due to divergence of their ecological niches: The aim of this' study Was Ad explore the phylogenetic structure in communities of the northwestern Caucasus at two spatial scales - the scale of area from 4 to 100 m2 and the smaller scale within a community. The list of local flora of the alpine belt has been composed using the database of geobotanic descriptions carried out in Teberda Biosphere Reserve at true altitudes exceeding.1800 m. It includes 585 species of flowering plants belonging to 57 families. Basal groups of flowering plants are.not represented in the list. At the scale of communities of three classes, namely Thlaspietea rotundifolii - commumties formed on screes and pebbles, Calluno-Ulicetea - alpine meadow, and Mulgedio-Aconitetea subalpine meadows, have not demonstrated significant distinction of phylogenetic structure. At intra level, for alpine meadows the larger share of closely related species. (clustered community) is detected. Significantly clustered happen to be those communities developing on rocks (class Asplenietea trichomanis) and alpine (class Juncetea trifidi). At the same time, alpine lichen proved to have even phylogenetic structure at the small scale. Alpine (class Salicetea herbaceae) that

  10. Deforestation in Viet Nam | CRDI - Centre de recherches pour le ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Deforestation in Viet Nam reports on a innovative and timely study by a team of Vietnamese and Canadian researchers. It presents a labourious historical analysis of the smallest changes affecting soil use, forest cover, population, and political and socioeconomic characteristics. The book concludes with suggestions for ...

  11. Quantifying deforestation and forest degradation with thermal response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hua; Chen, Yajun; Song, Qinghai; Fu, Peili; Cleverly, James; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Law, Beverly E; Gough, Christopher M; Hörtnagl, Lukas; Di Gennaro, Filippo; Matteucci, Giorgio; Montagnani, Leonardo; Duce, Pierpaolo; Shao, Changliang; Kato, Tomomichi; Bonal, Damien; Paul-Limoges, Eugénie; Beringer, Jason; Grace, John; Fan, Zexin

    2017-12-31

    Deforestation and forest degradation cause the deterioration of resources and ecosystem services. However, there are still no operational indicators to measure forest status, especially for forest degradation. In the present study, we analysed the thermal response number (TRN, calculated by daily total net radiation divided by daily temperature range) of 163 sites including mature forest, disturbed forest, planted forest, shrubland, grassland, savanna vegetation and cropland. TRN generally increased with latitude, however the regression of TRN against latitude differed among vegetation types. Mature forests are superior as thermal buffers, and had significantly higher TRN than disturbed and planted forests. There was a clear boundary between TRN of forest and non-forest vegetation (i.e. grassland and savanna) with the exception of shrubland, whose TRN overlapped with that of forest vegetation. We propose to use the TRN of local mature forest as the optimal TRN (TRN opt ). A forest with lower than 75% of TRN opt was identified as subjected to significant disturbance, and forests with 66% of TRN opt was the threshold for deforestation within the absolute latitude from 30° to 55°. Our results emphasized the irreplaceable thermal buffer capacity of mature forest. TRN can be used for early warning of deforestation and degradation risk. It is therefore a valuable tool in the effort to protect forests and prevent deforestation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Earth observations for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeFries, Ruth; Achard, Frederic; Brown, Sandra; Herold, Martin; Murdiyarso, Daniel; Schlamadinger, Bernhard; Souza, Carlos de

    2007-01-01

    In response to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process investigating the technical issues surrounding the ability to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from deforestation in developing countries, this paper reviews technical capabilities for monitoring deforestation and estimating emissions. Implementation of policies to reduce emissions from deforestation require effective deforestation monitoring systems that are reproducible, provide consistent results, meet standards for mapping accuracy, and can be implemented at the national level. Remotely sensed data supported by ground observations are key to effective monitoring. Capacity in developing countries for deforestation monitoring is well-advanced in a few countries and is a feasible goal in most others. Data sources exist to determine base periods in the 1990s as historical reference points. Forest degradation (e.g. from high impact logging and fragmentation) also contribute to greenhouse gas emissions but it is more technically challenging to measure than deforestation. Data on carbon stocks, which are needed to estimate emissions, cannot currently be observed directly over large areas with remote sensing. Guidelines for carbon accounting from deforestation exist and are available in approved Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and can be applied at national scales in the absence of forest inventory or other data. Key constraints for implementing programs to monitor greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation are international commitment of resources to increase capacity, coordination of observations to ensure pan-tropical coverage, access to free or low-cost data, and standard and consensual protocols for data interpretation and analysis

  13. Aquatic Natural Areas Analysis and Evaluation: Oak Ridge Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baranski, Dr. Michael J. [Catawba College

    2011-04-01

    This report presents an assessment of the natural area value of eight Aquatic Natural Areas (ANAs) and seven Aquatic Reference Areas (ARAs) on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in Anderson and Roane Counties in east Tennessee. It follows a previous study in 2009 that analyzed and evaluated terrestrial natural areas on the Reservation. The purpose of both studies was to evaluate and rank those specially designated areas on the Reservation that contain sensitive species, special habitats, and natural area value. Natural areas receive special protections through established statutes, regulations, and policies. The ORR contains 33,542 acres (13,574 ha) administered by the Department of Energy. The surface waters of the Reservation range from 1st-order to 5th-order streams, but the majority of the streams recognized as ANAs and ARAs are 1st- and 2nd-order streams. East Fork Poplar Creek is a 4th-order stream and the largest watershed that drains Reservation lands. All the waters of the Reservation eventually reach the Clinch River on the southern and western boundaries of the ORR. All available information was collected, synthesized, and evaluated. Field observations were made to support and supplement the available information. Geographic information system mapping techniques were used to develop several quantitative attributes about the study areas. Narrative descriptions of each ANA and ARA and tables of numerical data were prepared. Criteria for assessment and evaluation were developed, and eight categories of factors were devised to produce a ranking system. The evaluation factors used in the ranking system were: (A) size of area, (B) percentage of watershed protected, (C) taxa present with protected status, (D) overall biotic diversity, (E) stream features, (F) water quality and use support ratings, (G) disturbance regime, and (H) other factors. Each factor was evaluated on a 5-point ranking scale (0-4), and each area received a composite score, where 32 was the

  14. GHG emissions due to deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Croezen, H.; Van Valkengoed, M.

    2009-05-01

    An assessment was made for the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation in tropical forests in Malaysia and Indonesia related to Dutch economic activities. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are calculated in relation to (1) the emissions related to vegetation removal sec; and (2) the emissions related to removal and more long term effects related to assimilation of CO2 in forest regrowth and changes in organic material in soils. Emissions related to vegetation removal and aggregated emissions for both vegetation removal and long term effects are reported separately. Soil organic carbon stock changes are considered by Greenpeace as more uncertain, so the emphasis will be on the direct emissions. Changes in carbon stocks and N2O emissions and actually also changes in vegetation all are events that occur gradually, rather than immediately. Only removal of existing vegetation and possible burning of this vegetation and associated emissions related to both activities are immediate by nature. Carbon stocks and N2O emissions change to a new level within several decades after deforestation or forest degradation. Removed vegetation can grow back or be replaced eventually by other vegetation, thereby changing the net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to deforestation or forest degradation. Vegetation extracted for commercial purposes such as timber or pulp will also take years or decades to become waste and be converted into CO2. In IPCC and LCA's all these emissions are taken into account - or at least all emissions occurring within a period of 20 years, as required by IPCC. Soil organic carbon stock changes are also considered by Greenpeace as more uncertain, so the emphasis will be on the direct emmissions.

  15. The Reserve Policies of Nations: A Comparative Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    motivation for military service and help people to see security issues in a wider context.”102 Partly because 50 of Germany’s complex history, the...Sydney Olympic Games, the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting, and the 2003 Rugby World Cup.144 In late 2003, the Australian Army created its...field a smaller number of better motivated and equipped active and reserve 82 units capable of waging limited wars and combined arms operations

  16. Increasing deforestation at the Arc of Deforestation in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Maria Elisa; Pereira, Gabriel; Rocha, Rosmeri

    2013-04-01

    In this study we investigated the impact on regional climate due to the deforestation of Amazonian region. The deforestation was applied specifically to the area at the edge of the Amazonian region in Brazil, named Arc of Deforestation, where the deforestation actually occurs. The numerical experiments were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM3, used by many scientific groups around the world. The simulations performed by the model were conducted for the Brazil's central-southeast region rainy season, which can be defined between October and March. Each rainy season was separately simulated, being July-1st always the first day and March-31th the last one. Some alterations were made in the model specifications in order to better simulate the climate over South America. Land cover information was updated by more recent data. The older data compiled for 1992 was replaced by that compiled for 2005 (GLCC2005). Besides the global coverage updating, Cerrado information over Brazil obtained from the Brazilian Environmental Ministry was included to cover information. Based on results from others studies, carried out to South America, we changed the root and total soil layers depth, they were enlarged to 3.0 and 4.5 meters, respectively. This change can provide more humidity to the atmosphere and then increase the amount of convective precipitation. The spatial and time resolution considered for all simulations were, respectively, 50 km and 30 min. The domain was defined considering the South America region centered in 55W e 22S, with 160 and 120 points in longitudinal and latitudinal directions, respectively. The vertical resolution was described by 18 levels. The convective precipitation was computed by Grell scheme. Initial and boundary conditions were defined by Reanalysis I dataset. Sea surface temperature was those compiled by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, and was obtained from their Web site. Spatial patterns of simulated air temperature at low

  17. Prehistoric deforestation at Chaco Canyon?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, W H; Drake, Brandon L; Dorshow, Wetherbee B

    2014-08-12

    Ancient societies are often used to illustrate the potential problems stemming from unsustainable land-use practices because the past seems rife with examples of sociopolitical "collapse" associated with the exhaustion of finite resources. Just as frequently, and typically in response to such presentations, archaeologists and other specialists caution against seeking simple cause-and effect-relationships in the complex data that comprise the archaeological record. In this study we examine the famous case of Chaco Canyon, New Mexico, during the Bonito Phase (ca. AD 860-1140), which has become a prominent popular illustration of ecological and social catastrophe attributed to deforestation. We conclude that there is no substantive evidence for deforestation at Chaco and no obvious indications that the depopulation of the canyon in the 13th century was caused by any specific cultural practices or natural events. Clearly there was a reason why these farming people eventually moved elsewhere, but the archaeological record has not yet produced compelling empirical evidence for what that reason might have been. Until such evidence appears, the legacy of Ancestral Pueblo society in Chaco should not be used as a cautionary story about socioeconomic failures in the modern world.

  18. The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, A. I.; Little, W. S.; Houghton, R. A.; Scott, N. A.; White, J. D.

    2004-01-01

    We developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).

  19. Impact of Amazonian deforestation on atmospheric chemistry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganzeveld, L.N.; Lelieveld, J.

    2004-01-01

    A single-column chemistry and climate model has been used to study the impact of deforestation in the Amazon Basin on atmospheric chemistry. Over deforested areas, daytime ozone deposition generally decreases strongly except when surface wetness decreases through reduced precipitation, whereas

  20. Hydrological Regimes of Small Catchments in the High Tatra Mountains Before and After Extraordinary Wind-Induced Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holko, Ladislav; Hlavata, Helena; Kostka, Zdenek; Novak, Jan

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of rainfall-runoff data analysis for small catchments of the upper Poprad River affected by wind-induced deforestation in November 2004. Before-event and afterevent measured data were compared in order to assess the impact of deforestation on hydrological regimes. Several characteristics were used including water balance, minimum and maximum runoff, runoff thresholds, number of runoff events, selected characteristics of events, runoff coefficients, and flashiness indices. Despite increased spring runoff minima, which in one catchment (Velick Creek) exceeded previously observed values after deforestation took place, it can be generally concluded that the impact of the deforestation was not clearly manifested in the analyzed hydrological data.

  1. THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE DEFORESTATION: THE CASE OF IMPROVED FALLOWS IN THE PERUVIAN AMAZON

    OpenAIRE

    Yanggen, David; Reardon, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses a profit function theoretical approach and three stage least squares regression analysis for examining the relationship between land-intensifying technologies and deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon. This modeling approach permits analysis of the determinants of input technology adoption and how input technology choice effects deforestation rates.

  2. Deforestation alters rainfall: a myth or reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanif, M. F.; Mustafa, M. R.; Hashim, A. M.; Yusof, K. W.

    2016-06-01

    To cope with the issue of food safety and human shelter, natural landscape has gone through a number of alterations. In the coming future, the expansion of urban land and agricultural farms will likely disrupt the natural environment. Researchers have claimed that land use change may become the most serious issue of the current century. Thus, it is necessary to understand the consequences of land use change on the climatic variables, e.g., rainfall. This study investigated the impact of deforestation on local rainfall. An integrated methodology was adopted to achieve the objectives. Above ground biomass was considered as the indicator of forest areas. Time series data of a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor were obtained for the year of 2000, 2005, and 2010. Rainfall data were collected from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Malaysia. The MODIS time series data were classified and four major classes were developed based on the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) ranges. The results of the classification showed that water, and urban and agricultural lands have increased in their area by 2, 3, and 6%, respectively. On the other hand, the area of forest has decreased 10% collectively from 2000 to 2010. The results of NDVI and rainfall data were analysed by using a linear regression analysis. The results showed a significant relationship at a 90% confidence interval between rainfall and deforestation (t = 1.92, p = 0.06). The results of this study may provide information about the consequences of land use on the climate on the local scale.

  3. Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south-southeastern Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Michael T; Marthews, Toby R; Costa, Marcos Heil; Galbraith, David R; Greenglass, Nora L; Imbuzeiro, Hewlley M A; Levine, Naomi M; Malhi, Yadvinder; Moorcroft, Paul R; Muza, Michel Nobre; Powell, Thomas L; Saleska, Scott R; Solorzano, Luis A; Wang, Jingfeng

    2013-06-05

    A mosaic of protected areas, including indigenous lands, sustainable-use production forests and reserves and strictly protected forests is the cornerstone of conservation in the Amazon, with almost 50 per cent of the region now protected. However, recent research indicates that isolation from direct deforestation or degradation may not be sufficient to maintain the ecological integrity of Amazon forests over the next several decades. Large-scale changes in fire and drought regimes occurring as a result of deforestation and greenhouse gas increases may result in forest degradation, regardless of protected status. How severe or widespread these feedbacks will be is uncertain, but the arc of deforestation in south-southeastern Amazonia appears to be particularly vulnerable owing to high current deforestation rates and ecological sensitivity to climate change. Maintaining forest ecosystem integrity may require significant strengthening of forest conservation on private property, which can in part be accomplished by leveraging existing policy mechanisms.

  4. Responses of Mean and Extreme Precipitation to Deforestation in the Maritime Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, C. C.; Lo, M. H.; Yu, J. Y.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic land use and land cover change, including tropical deforestation, could have substantial effects on local surface energy and water budgets, and thus on the atmospheric stability which may result in changes in precipitation. Maritime Continent has undergone severe deforestation in recent decades but has received less attention than Amazon or Congo rainforests. Therefore, this study is to decipher the precipitation response to deforestation in the Maritime Continent. We conduct deforestation experiments using Community Earth System Model (CESM) and through converting the tropical rainforest into grassland. The results show that deforestation in Maritime Continent leads to an increase in both mean temperature and mean precipitation. Moisture budget analysis indicates that the increase in precipitation is associated with the vertically integrated vertical moisture advection, especially the dynamic component (changes in convection). In addition, through moist static energy (MSE) budget analysis, we find the atmosphere among deforested areas become unstable owing to the combined effects of positive specific humidity anomalies at around 850 hPa and anomalous warming extended from the surface to 750 hPa. This instability will induce anomalous ascending motion, which could enhance the low-level moisture convergence, providing water vapor from the surrounding warm ocean. To further evaluate the precipitation response to deforestation, we examine the precipitation changes under La Niña events and global warming scenario using CESM Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 simulations. We find that the precipitation increase caused by deforestation in Maritime Continent is comparable in magnitude to that generated by either natural variability or global warming forcing. Besides the changes in mean precipitation, preliminary results show the extreme precipitation also increases. We will further

  5. Trends in size of tropical deforestation events signal increasing dominance of industrial-scale drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Kemen G.; González-Roglich, Mariano; Schaffer-Smith, Danica; Schwantes, Amanda M.; Swenson, Jennifer J.

    2017-05-01

    Deforestation continues across the tropics at alarming rates, with repercussions for ecosystem processes, carbon storage and long term sustainability. Taking advantage of recent fine-scale measurement of deforestation, this analysis aims to improve our understanding of the scale of deforestation drivers in the tropics. We examined trends in forest clearings of different sizes from 2000-2012 by country, region and development level. As tropical deforestation increased from approximately 6900 kha yr-1 in the first half of the study period, to >7900 kha yr-1 in the second half of the study period, >50% of this increase was attributable to the proliferation of medium and large clearings (>10 ha). This trend was most pronounced in Southeast Asia and in South America. Outside of Brazil >60% of the observed increase in deforestation in South America was due to an upsurge in medium- and large-scale clearings; Brazil had a divergent trend of decreasing deforestation, >90% of which was attributable to a reduction in medium and large clearings. The emerging prominence of large-scale drivers of forest loss in many regions and countries suggests the growing need for policy interventions which target industrial-scale agricultural commodity producers. The experience in Brazil suggests that there are promising policy solutions to mitigate large-scale deforestation, but that these policy initiatives do not adequately address small-scale drivers. By providing up-to-date and spatially explicit information on the scale of deforestation, and the trends in these patterns over time, this study contributes valuable information for monitoring, and designing effective interventions to address deforestation.

  6. Deforestation near Rio Branco, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    Settlement and deforestation surrounding the Brazilian town of Rio Branco are seen here in the striking 'herring bone' deforestation patterns that cut through the rainforest. Rio Brancois the capital of the Brazilian state of Acre and is situated near the border with northeastern Bolivia. The town is a center for the distribution of goods, including rubber, metals, medicinal plants, Brazil nuts and timber. Colonization projects in the region are supported by farming, logging activities, and extensive cattle ranching. Much of the surrounding terrain is of a poorly-draining clay hardpan soil, and heavy rainfall periodically converts parts of the forested region to swamp.The large overview image was acquired by the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer's vertical-viewing (nadir) camera on July 28, 2000, and covers an area of 336 kilometers x 333 kilometers. A plume of smoke is visible north of the Rio Branco road, which roughly parallels the slender, twisting Rio Abuna. Most of the major rivers in the image provide reference points for state or international (Bolivia-Brazil) boundaries, and flow northeast to the Rio Madeira (east of the smoke plume). The border between Acre and the Bolivian department of Pando is marked by the Rio Abuna. Pando's southern boundary with the department of Beni is marked by the Rio Madre de Dios, the large river in the lower half of the image.The two higher-resolution inset images highlight a settled area north of the town of Rio Branco. These nadir views cover an area of 60 kilometers x 67 kilometers, and were acquired eleven months apart during Terra orbits 3251 and 8144. In the later image, more haze is present, possibly due to smoke from fires on that day. Comparing the two images provides a method of measuring the changes and expansion in the area of cleared land. One newly cleared patch is apparent near the middle of the later image, slightly off to the right. This polygon represents an area of about 16 square kilometers, or 4000

  7. Implications for Forest Resource Degradation and Deforestation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of Socio-Economic Status and Food Consumption Pattern on Household Energy uses: Implications for Forest Resource Degradation and Deforestation around Wondo Genet Catchments, South-Central Ethiopia.

  8. Geochemical approach to evaluate deforest of mangroves

    OpenAIRE

    Ishiga, Hiroaki; Diallo, Ibrahima M'bemba; Bah Mamadou Lamine Malick,; Ngulimi. Faustine Miguta,; Magai. Paschal Justin,; Shati Samwel Stanley,

    2016-01-01

    Processes of mangrove deforest related human activities were examined. To evaluate changes of soil feature, multielements geochemical compositions of mangrove muds and soils of deforest were analyzed. To describe present situation of the mangrove, Conakry in Guinea, Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, Sundarbans of Bangladesh and Nago in Okinawa of Japan were selected. Soil samples of the forests were evaluated enrichment of biologically concentrated heavy metals such as Zn, Cu and Fe, and TS (total s...

  9. Ten-Year Landsat Classification of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in the Brazilian Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Jr, Carlos Souza,; Siqueira, João; Sales, Marcio; Fonseca, Antônio; Ribeiro, Júlia; Numata, Izaya; Cochrane, Mark; Barber, Christopher; Roberts, Dar; Barlow, Jos

    2013-01-01

    Forest degradation in the Brazilian Amazon due to selective logging and forest fires may greatly increase the human footprint beyond outright deforestation. We demonstrate a method to quantify annual deforestation and degradation simultaneously across the entire region for the years 2000–2010 using high-resolution Landsat satellite imagery. Combining spectral mixture analysis, normalized difference fraction index, and knowledge-based decision tree classification, we mapped and assessed the ac...

  10. Spatial Model of Deforestation in Jambi Province for The Periode 1990–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Putu Ananta Wijaya

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last 2 decades, deforestation had been an international issue due to its effect to climate change. This study describes a spatial modelling for predicting deforestation in Jambi Province. The main study objective was to find out the best spatial model for predicting deforestation by considering the spatial contexts. The main data used for the analysis were multitemporal Landsat TM images acquired in 1990, 2000, and 2011, the existing land cover maps published by the Ministry of Forestry, statistical data and ground truth. Prior to any other analyses, all districts within the study area were classified into 2 typologies, i.e. low-rate and high-rate deforestation districs on the basis of social and economic factors by using clustering approaches. The spatial models of deforestation were developed by using least-square methods. The study found that the spatial model of deforestation for low-rate deforestation area is Logit (Deforestation = -2.7046 – 0.000397*JH90 + 0.000002*JJ – 0.000111*JKBN90 (distance from forest edge (distance from road + 0.000096 *JP90 + 0.044227*PDK90 + 0.148187 *E – (distance from estate crop edge (distance from agricultural crop edge (population density (elevation 0.131178*S(slope; while for the high-speed deforestation area is Logit (Deforestation = 9.1727 – 0.000788*JH90(distance – 0.000065 *JJ – 0.000091*JKBN90 + 0.000005 *JP90 – from forest edge (distance from road (distance from estate crop edge (distance from agricultural crop edge 0.070372*PDK90 + 11.268539*E – 1.495198*S . The low-rate and high-rate deforestation (population density (elevation (slope models had relatively good ROC (Relative Operating Characteristics values of 91.32% and 99.08%, respectively. The study concludes that the deforestation rate was significantly affected by accessibility (distance from forest edge, distance from estate crop edge, edge from agricultural land, biophysical condition (elevation and slope as well as

  11. The role of values in no deforestation policies

    OpenAIRE

    Mortimer, Roisin

    2017-01-01

    Since 2013, many companies have made commitments to ensure their supply chain is not linked to deforestation, known as No Deforestation Policies (NDPs). Despite the development of tools to implement NDPs, deforestation is ongoing. This research took a values–based approach to explore less–considered social aspects of why deforestation is ongoing despite the number of NDPs in the agribusiness sector. The role of company values, commercial values, values of no deforestation or environmental pro...

  12. Narco-scapes: Cocaine Trafficking and Deforestation in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wrathall, D.; McSweeney, K.; Nielsen, E.; Pearson, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Narcotics trafficking and drug interdiction efforts have resulted in a well-documented social crisis in Central America, but more recently, has been tightly linked to environmental catastrophe and accelerated deforestation in transit zones. This talk will outline synthesis findings from multi-country, interdisciplinary research on cocaine trafficking as an engine of forest loss in Central America. During the "narco-boom" of the mid-2000s, we observed a geographical evolution of cocaine flows into Central America, and the transit of cocaine through new spaces, accompanied by specific patterns of social and environmental change in new nodes of transit. We coarsely estimated that the total amount of cocaine flowing through Central America increased from 70 metric tons in 2000 to 350 mt in 2012, implying that total cocaine trafficking revenue in the region increased from roughly 600 million dollars to 3.5 billion in that time. We describe the mechanism by which these locally captured cocaine rents resulted in a rapid conversion of forest into cattle pasture. Narco-traffickers are drawn to invest in the cattle economy, as a direct means of laundering and formalizing proceeds. Ranching is a land intensive activity, and new narco-enriched cattle pastures can be isolated from other forms forest loss solely by their spatial and temporal change characteristics. A preliminary forest change study in Honduras, for example, indicated that areas of accelerated deforestation were in close proximity to known narcotics trafficking routes and were thirteen times more extensive on average than other forest clearings. Deforested areas commonly appeared in isolated and biodiverse lowland tropical rainforest regions that often intersected with protected areas and indigenous reserves. We find that narco-deforestation is a readily identifiable signal of the extent and health of the cocaine economy. This talk will feature summaries of both ethnographic and land cover change we have observed

  13. PAD TECHNIQUE ON DEFORESTATION SITUATION ON PETROPOLIS’ METROPOLITAN AREA - RJ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda Santos de Alencar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available With the rising and intensification of production’s activities, as industries, the deforestation taxes show to be on an alarming level. It is wide spread known the consequences that deforestation might cause in metropolitan areas. In order to evalue the consequences of this growing phenomenon, is possible to use a role of ambiental impacts evaluations techniques. One of them is the Preliminary Analysis of Danger (PAD, which is based on qualitative and statistics analysis and might be used in association with other ambiental impacts evaluations techniques. It’s goal is to analyze dangers in potential, it’s causes and consequences, in which is also done an associated risk analysis, which the last is the association between the classifications of frequency and severity, and, in the end, it gives suggestions of measures to avoid these dangers (undesired events. In this study, six dangers have been identified, in which none of them present despicable or low risk (0%, 16% present medium or high risk and 66% present critic risk. These datas point out that the deforestation situation might cause dangers with great consequences to Petropolis’ metropolitan area, just as floodings and earth slidings, which higthlights the urgency of management of the area. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12957/sustinere.2015.20003

  14. Development of national database on long-term deforestation (1930-2014) in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C. Sudhakar; Pasha, S. Vazeed; Jha, C. S.; Diwakar, P. G.; Dadhwal, V. K.

    2016-04-01

    The aim of the present study is to prepare a nation-wide spatial database on forest cover to assess and monitor the land use changes associated with deforestation in Bangladesh. The multi-source data were interpreted to get the forest cover map of 1930, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2006 and 2014. The spatial information generated on total area under forest cover, rate of deforestation and afforestation, changes across forest types, forest canopy density, replacement land use in deforested area and deforestation hotspots. This spatial analysis has indicated that forest cover is undergoing significant negative change in area and quality. We report that forests in Bangladesh covered an area of 23,140 km2 in 1930 which has decreased to 14,086 km2 in 2014, a net loss of 9054 km2 (39.1%) in eight decades. Analysis of annual rate of gross deforestation for the recent period indicates 0.77% during 2006-2014. During the past eight decades, semi-evergreen forests show loss of 56.4% of forest cover followed by moist deciduous forests (51.5%), dry deciduous forests (43.1%) and mangroves (6.5%). The loss of 23.5% of dense forest cover was found from 1975 to 2014. Dense semi-evergreen forests shows more negative change (36.9%) followed by dense moist deciduous forest (32.7%) from 1975 to 2014. Annual rate of deforestation is higher in dense forests compared to open forests from 2006 to 2014 and indicates increased threat due to anthropogenic pressures. The spatial analysis of forest cover change in mangroves has shown a lower rate of deforestation. Most of the forest conversions have led to the degradation of forests to scrub and transition to agriculture and plantation. The study has identified the 'deforestation hotspots' can help in strategic planning for conservation and management of forest resources.

  15. An integrative approach to research of deforestation under concession management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hepner, G.F.; Walker, R.T.

    1991-01-01

    A methodological approach integrating questionnaire research of tropical foresters with analyses of the actual patterns of concession logging and land use activities portrayed on various types of satellite imagery is discussed. The imagery analysis is necessary to: document the location place and magnitude of forest utilization and change in concession areas; confirm that responses vis-a-vis deforestation in the questionnaire correspond to observable behaviors as evidenced by the actual patterns of logging activities; and document the postharvest land utilization and conversion to other land uses. It is argued that this approach will link the process and pattern of logging activities to reveal the main factors leading to deforestation under the concession system of management. 20 refs

  16. Pervasive Rise of Small-scale Deforestation in Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalamandeen, Michelle; Gloor, Emanuel; Mitchard, Edward; Quincey, Duncan; Ziv, Guy; Spracklen, Dominick; Spracklen, Benedict; Adami, Marcos; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galbraith, David

    2018-01-25

    Understanding forest loss patterns in Amazonia, the Earth's largest rainforest region, is critical for effective forest conservation and management. Following the most detailed analysis to date, spanning the entire Amazon and extending over a 14-year period (2001-2014), we reveal significant shifts in deforestation dynamics of Amazonian forests. Firstly, hotspots of Amazonian forest loss are moving away from the southern Brazilian Amazon to Peru and Bolivia. Secondly, while the number of new large forest clearings (>50 ha) has declined significantly over time (46%), the number of new small clearings (<1 ha) increased by 34% between 2001-2007 and 2008-2014. Thirdly, we find that small-scale low-density forest loss expanded markedly in geographical extent during 2008-2014. This shift presents an important and alarming new challenge for forest conservation, despite reductions in overall deforestation rates.

  17. Gender-specific out-migration, deforestation and urbanization in the Ecuadorian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbieri, Alisson F.; Carr, David L.

    2005-07-01

    The Ecuadorian Amazon, one of the richest reserves of biodiversity in the world, has faced one of the highest rates of deforestation of any Amazonian nation. Most of this forest elimination has been caused by agricultural colonization that followed the discovery of oil fields in 1967. Since the 1990s, an increasing process of urbanization has also engendered new patterns of population mobility within the Amazon, along with traditional ways by which rural settlers make their living. However, while very significant in its effects on deforestation, urbanization and regional development, population mobility within the Amazon has hardly been studied at all, as well as the distinct migration patterns between men and women. This paper uses a longitudinal dataset of 250 farm households in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon to understand differentials between men and women migrants to urban and rural destinations and between men and women non-migrants. First, we use hazard analysis based on the Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimator to obtain the cumulative probability that an individual living in the study area in 1990 or at time t, will out-migrated at some time, t+ n, before 1999. Results indicate that out-migration to other rural areas in the Amazon, especially pristine areas is considerably greater than out-migration to the growing, but still incipient, Amazonian urban areas. Furthermore, men are more likely to out-migrate to rural areas than women, while the reverse occurs for urban areas. Difference-of-means tests were employed to examine potential factors accounting for differentials between male and female out-migration to urban and rural areas. Among the key results, relative to men younger women are more likely to out-migrate to urban areas; more difficult access from farms to towns and roads constrains women's migration; and access to new lands in the Amazon-an important cause of further deforestation-is more associated with male out-migration. Economic factors such as

  18. Naval Reserve Force: Cost and Benefit Analysis of Reducing the Number of Naval Surface Reserve Force Operating Budget Holders

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Young, Eric

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines one of Commander Naval Surface Reserve Force's initiatives for reducing the current number of Operating Budget holder's Comptroller Departments without sacrificing efficiency...

  19. Deforestation and hunting effects on wildlife across Amazonian indigenous lands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro de Araujo Lima. Constantino

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation and hunting are main wildlife threats in Amazonia, affecting the ecosystem and dwellers that rely on game meat. Data from 9109 hunted animals from 35 villages of 8 Pano indigenous lands in Brazilian Amazonia were used to build 4 indicators of wildlife status based on ecological models and to analyze the effects of deforestation, hunting pressure, and socioeconomic aspects on wildlife variation. Although variation in wildlife status indicated depletion in certain locations, hunters from most villages continued to hunt their preferred game after decades of intensive hunting. Indigenous hunting resulted in local depletion of species because of the dispersal of animals away from the source of hunting. This local effect can be explained by the permanent hunting of wildlife in the region, the behavior of Pano hunters, and the design and scale of this study analysis. Regionally, however, deforestation and associated factors are the cause of reduced population density and hunting success, extirpating sensitive species. Roads exacerbated hunting effects through disturbance, encroachment, and provision of access to livestock meat at markets. To avoid local depletion, indigenous people must review their subsistence hunting practices, whereas to achieve regional wildlife conservation and to maintain indigenous societies in Amazonia, wildlife habitat loss should be limited.

  20. Changing drivers of deforestation and new opportunities for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, Thomas K; Defries, Ruth; Asner, Gregory P; Laurance, William F

    2009-12-01

    Over the past 50 years, human agents of deforestation have changed in ways that have potentially important implications for conservation efforts. We characterized these changes through a meta-analysis of case studies of land-cover change in the tropics. From the 1960s to the 1980s, small-scale farmers, with state assistance, deforested large areas of tropical forest in Southeast Asia and Latin America. As globalization and urbanization increased during the 1980s, the agents of deforestation changed in two important parts of the tropical biome, the lowland rainforests in Brazil and Indonesia. Well-capitalized ranchers, farmers, and loggers producing for consumers in distant markets became more prominent in these places and this globalization weakened the historically strong relationship between local population growth and forest cover. At the same time, forests have begun to regrow in some tropical uplands. These changing circumstances, we believe, suggest two new and differing strategies for biodiversity conservation in the tropics, one focused on conserving uplands and the other on promoting environmental stewardship in lowlands and other areas conducive to industrial agriculture.

  1. Geospatial assessment and monitoring of historical forest cover changes (1920-2012) in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, Western Ghats, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satish, K V; Saranya, K R L; Reddy, C Sudhakar; Krishna, P Hari; Jha, C S; Rao, P V V Prasada

    2014-12-01

    Deforestation in the biosphere reserves, which are key Protected Areas has negative impacts on biodiversity, climate, carbon fluxes and livelihoods. Comprehensive study of deforestation in biosphere reserves is required to assess the impact of the management effectiveness. This article assesses the changes in forest cover in various zones and protected areas of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, the first declared biosphere reserve in India which forms part of Western Ghats-a global biodiversity hotspot. In this study, we have mapped the forests from earliest available topographical maps and multi-temporal satellite data spanning from 1920's to 2012 period. Mapping of spatial extent of forest cover, vegetation types and land cover was carried out using visual interpretation technique. A grid cell of 1 km × 1 km was generated for time series change analysis to understand the patterns in spatial distribution of forest cover (1920-1973-1989-1999-2006-2012). The total forest area of biosphere reserve was found to be 5,806.5 km(2) (93.8 % of total geographical area) in 1920. Overall loss of forest cover was estimated as 1,423.6 km(2) (24.5 % of the total forest) with reference to 1920. Among the six Protected Areas, annual deforestation rate of >0.5 was found in Wayanad wildlife sanctuary during 1920-1973. The deforestation in Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve is mainly attributed to conversion of forests to plantations and agriculture along with submergence due to construction of dams during 1920 to 1989. Grid wise analysis indicates that 851 grids have undergone large-scale negative changes of >75 ha of forest loss during 1920-1973 while, only 15 grids have shown >75 ha loss during 1973-1989. Annual net rate of deforestation for the period of 1920 to 1973 was calculated as 0.5 followed by 0.1 for 1973 to 1989. Our analysis shows that there was large-scale deforestation before the declaration of area as biosphere reserve in 1986; however, the deforestation has drastically

  2. Unsustainable development pathways caused by tropical deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco, Luis Roman; Nghiem, Thi Phuong Le; Chen, Zhirong; Barbier, Edward B

    2017-07-01

    Global sustainability strategies require assessing whether countries' development trajectories are sustainable over time. However, sustainability assessments are limited because losses of natural capital and its ecosystem services through deforestation have not been comprehensively incorporated into national accounts. We update the national accounts of 80 nations that underwent tropical deforestation from 2000 to 2012 and evaluate their development trajectories using weak and strong sustainability criteria. Weak sustainability requires that countries do not decrease their aggregate capital over time. We adopt a strong sustainability criterion that countries do not decrease the value of their forest ecosystem services with respect to the year 2000. We identify several groups of countries: countries, such as Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and India, that present sustainable development trajectories under both weak and strong sustainability criteria; countries, such as Brazil, Peru, and Indonesia, that present weak sustainable development but fail the strong sustainability criterion as a result of rapid losses of ecosystem services; countries, such as Madagascar, Laos, and Papua New Guinea, that present unsustainable development pathways as a result of deforestation; and countries, such as Democratic Republic of Congo and Sierra Leone, in which deforestation aggravates already unsustainable pathways. Our results reveal a large number of countries where tropical deforestation is both damaging to nature and not compensated by development in other sectors, thus compromising the well-being of their future generations.

  3. Assessment of deforestation using regression; Hodnotenie odlesnenia s vyuzitim regresie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juristova, J. [Univerzita Komenskeho, Prirodovedecka fakulta, Katedra kartografie, geoinformatiky a DPZ, 84215 Bratislava (Slovakia)

    2013-04-16

    This work is devoted to the evaluation of deforestation using regression methods through software Idrisi Taiga. Deforestation is evaluated by the method of logistic regression. The dependent variable has discrete values '0' and '1', indicating that the deforestation occurred or not. Independent variables have continuous values, expressing the distance from the edge of the deforested areas of forests from urban areas, the river and the road network. The results were also used in predicting the probability of deforestation in subsequent periods. The result is a map showing the output probability of deforestation for the periods 1990/2000 and 200/2006 in accordance with predetermined coefficients (values of independent variables). (authors)

  4. Jamaica: Test case for tropical deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eyre, L A

    1987-01-01

    Deforestation in Jamaica, according to the United Nations (FAO/UNEP) and other sources, is occurring at an annual rate of about tree percent. This is accepted by some Jamaican government agencies, but strongly disputed by others. The Ministry of Agriculture, in particular, claims that the national forested area is actually increasing rapidly. A survey of humid tropical forests in Jamaica, carried out by the author in 1986, indicates a 3.3 percent per annum rate of deforestation for 1980-1986. But, despite significant commercial lumber production, large clear fellings are rare and most modification of the forest is due to expansion of small-scale farming (including Cannabis sativa) and pastoral activity. The size of area cleared is most often 20 to 25 hectares. As uncontrolled deforestation is adversely affecting watersheds and inducing serious flooding some form of control and management is urgently required.

  5. Casuses of deforestation in southwestern Madagascar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Casse, Thorkil; Milhøj, Anders; Ranaivoson, Socrate

    2004-01-01

    Causes of deforestation are discussed in the case of southwestern Madagascar. Distinction is made between direct and indirect causes. The article ends up with an estimation of the value of agricultural land vs. an estimation of benefits from utilisation of non-timber forest products......Causes of deforestation are discussed in the case of southwestern Madagascar. Distinction is made between direct and indirect causes. The article ends up with an estimation of the value of agricultural land vs. an estimation of benefits from utilisation of non-timber forest products...

  6. Mapping Forest Inventory and Analysis forest land use: timberland, reserved forest land, and other forest land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark D. Nelson; John Vissage

    2007-01-01

    The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program produces area estimates of forest land use within three subcategories: timberland, reserved forest land, and other forest land. Mapping these subcategories of forest land requires the ability to spatially distinguish productive from unproductive land, and reserved from nonreserved land. FIA field data were spatially...

  7. Analysis of the Retention and Affiliation Factors Affecting the Active and Reserve Naval Nurse Corps

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Messmer, Scott J; Pizanti, Kimberly A

    2007-01-01

    ...) an empirical analysis to analyze characteristics of those who are retained in the active Naval Nurse Corps and those who affiliate with the reserve Naval Nurse Corps using multivariate logit regressions...

  8. Environmental Concerns of Deforestation in Myanmar 2001–2010

    OpenAIRE

    Chuyuan Wang; Soe W. Myint

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation in Myanmar has recently attracted much attention worldwide. This study examined spatio-temporal patterns of deforestation and forest carbon flux in Myanmar from 2001 to 2010 and environmental impacts at the regional scale using land products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The results suggest that the total deforestation area in Myanmar was 21,178.8 km2, with an annual deforestation rate of 0.81%, and that the total forest carbon release was 20.06 m...

  9. Does the Pressure of Population and Poverty cause Deforestation?

    OpenAIRE

    Widiaryanto, Pungky

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation has created several negative impacts such as reducing biodiversity, decreasing life support system and increasing green house gases emission. Identifying the causes of deforestation is a key to tackle this problem. Various studies have been conducted to investigate the driver of deforestation in the world. Some experts believe that the pressure of population and poverty cause deforestation. On the other hand, the others argue that there is no relationship among the pressure of p...

  10. The role of values in no deforestation policies

    OpenAIRE

    Mortimer, Roisin

    2017-01-01

    Masters thesis as part of European M Sc Agroecology with NMBU and ISARA-Lyon, internship at The Forest Trust (TFT), Switzerland. Since 2013, many companies have made commitments to ensure their supply chain is not linked to deforestation, known as No Deforestation Policies (NDPs). Despite the development of tools to implement NDPs, deforestation is ongoing. This research took a values–based approach to explore less–considered social aspects of why deforestation is ongoing despite the numbe...

  11. Influence of Environmental Governance on Deforestation in Municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian Fernandes Oliveira Dias

    Full Text Available It has been argued that measuring governance at scales smaller than global could be an important management tool. However, current studies are conducted on a global scale and use expensive methods. In the present study, we assess whether the reported governance of Amazonian municipalities is related to reductions in deforestation. Economic activity (EA affected general governance (G positively (G = 0.81 +1.19 * EA, F1, 98 = 77.36, p < 0.001. Environmental governance (EG was not affected significantly (p = 0.43 by deforestation before 2000 (PD, but increased significantly (p < 0.001 with general governance (G (EG = -0.29 + 0.04 PD+0.98*OG, F2,97 = 42.6, p <0.001. Deforestation was not significantly related to environmental governance (p = 0.82. The only indirect effect of significant magnitude was the effect of the density of forest reserves on recent deforestation through deforestation before 2000, which was strongly negative (-0.49. It is possible to assess reported actions to promote municipal governance through official data. However, it is not enough to assume that general governance or environmental governance at the municipal level, as reflected in the official statistics, benefits environmental conservation. In fact, even at the level of nation states, at which most quantification of governance has been undertaken, it seems that the relationship between governance and environmental preservation is only an assumption, because we are aware of no study that supports that hypothesis quantitatively.

  12. Influence of Environmental Governance on Deforestation in Municipalities of the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Lilian Fernandes Oliveira; Dias, David Valentim; Magnusson, William Ernest

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that measuring governance at scales smaller than global could be an important management tool. However, current studies are conducted on a global scale and use expensive methods. In the present study, we assess whether the reported governance of Amazonian municipalities is related to reductions in deforestation. Economic activity (EA) affected general governance (G) positively (G = 0.81 +1.19 * EA, F1, 98 = 77.36, p deforestation before 2000 (PD), but increased significantly (p Deforestation was not significantly related to environmental governance (p = 0.82). The only indirect effect of significant magnitude was the effect of the density of forest reserves on recent deforestation through deforestation before 2000, which was strongly negative (-0.49). It is possible to assess reported actions to promote municipal governance through official data. However, it is not enough to assume that general governance or environmental governance at the municipal level, as reflected in the official statistics, benefits environmental conservation. In fact, even at the level of nation states, at which most quantification of governance has been undertaken, it seems that the relationship between governance and environmental preservation is only an assumption, because we are aware of no study that supports that hypothesis quantitatively.

  13. Land Tenure Induced Deforestation and Environmental Degradation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Land Tenure Induced Deforestation and Environmental Degradation in Ethiopia: The Case of Arbagugu State Forest Development and Protection Project (A ... The objective of this paper is to explore the cause and impact of this overarching problem by focusing on Arbagugu State Forest Development and Protection Project, ...

  14. Behavioural economics: Cash incentives avert deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas, Juan Camilo

    2017-10-01

    There is tension in developing countries between financial incentives to clear forests and climate regulation benefits of preserving trees. Now research shows that paying private forest owners in Uganda reduced deforestation, adding to the debate on the use of monetary incentives in forest conservation.

  15. Debunking three myths about Madagascar's deforestation | Horning ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    After more than three decades of describing, explaining, and tackling deforestation in Madagascar, the problem persists. Why do researchers, practitioners, politicians, and farmers remain perplexed about this problem? This essay offers that our collective thinking of the past three decades has inadvertently perpetuated ...

  16. Intersectoral labor mobility and deforestation in Ghana

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Owusu, V.; Yerfi Fosu, K.; Burger, C.P.J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper quantifies the effects of the determinants of intersectoral labor mobility and the effect of intersectoral labor mobility on deforestation in Ghana over the period 1970–2008. A cointegration and error correction modeling approach is employed. The empirical results show that labor mobility

  17. Deforestation crimes and conflicts in the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2010-01-01

    This article explores and explains deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. It primarily takes a green criminological perspective and looks at the harm that is inflicted on many of the Amazon’s inhabitants, including indigenous populations such as ‘uncontacted’ tribes of hunters-gatherers,

  18. Carbon accumulation and storage capacity in mangrove sediments three decades after deforestation within a eutrophic bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, A; Machado, W; Gutiérrez, D; Borges, A C; Patchineelam, S R; Sanders, C J

    2018-01-01

    A dated sediment core from an eutrophic mangrove area presented non-significant differences in carbon accumulation rates before (55.7±10.2gm -2 yr -1 ) and after three decades of deforestation (59.7±7.2gm -2 yr -1 ). Although eutrophication effects appear to compensate the loss of mangrove organic matter input, the results in this work show a threefold lower carbon accumulation than the global averages estimated for mangrove sediments. The effects of increasing eutrophication and enhanced sediment dry bulk density observed after deforestation (~30% higher) did not result in higher carbon stocks. Moreover, the lower TOC:OP (mangrove deforestation losses on carbon accumulation in mangrove ecosystems. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Thresholds of species loss in Amazonian deforestation frontier landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel; Gardner, Toby A; Rosa, Isabel; Ferraz, Silvio Frosini de Barros; Sutherland, William J

    2015-04-01

    In the Brazilian Amazon, private land accounts for the majority of remaining native vegetation. Understanding how land-use change affects the composition and distribution of biodiversity in farmlands is critical for improving conservation strategies in the face of rapid agricultural expansion. Working across an area exceeding 3 million ha in the southwestern state of Rondônia, we assessed how the extent and configuration of remnant forest in replicate 10,000-ha landscapes has affected the occurrence of a suite of Amazonian mammals and birds. In each of 31 landscapes, we used field sampling and semistructured interviews with landowners to determine the presence of 28 large and medium sized mammals and birds, as well as a further 7 understory birds. We then combined results of field surveys and interviews with a probabilistic model of deforestation. We found strong evidence for a threshold response of sampled biodiversity to landscape level forest cover; landscapes with deforested landscapes many species are susceptible to extirpation following relatively small additional reductions in forest area. In the model of deforestation by 2030 the number of 10,000-ha landscapes under a conservative threshold of 43% forest cover almost doubled, such that only 22% of landscapes would likely to be able to sustain at least 75% of the 35 focal species we sampled. Brazilian law requires rural property owners in the Amazon to retain 80% forest cover, although this is rarely achieved. Prioritizing efforts to ensure that entire landscapes, rather than individual farms, retain at least 50% forest cover may help safeguard native biodiversity in private forest reserves in the Amazon. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  20. Surface water quality and deforestation of the Purus river basin, Brazilian Amazon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Antonio Ríos-Villamizar

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the last years, deforestation constitutes a threat for the aquatic ecosystems. This paper aims to characterize the water quality of the Purus river in the Brazilian Amazon, and investigate the relations between water quality and deforestation of the Purus river basin over a 9-year period, as well as to quantify the Purus river basin’s land cover changes (% in a 5-year period. Sampling data from upstream to downstream show a decrease in pH-value, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, and total suspended solids. Correlation analysis revealed a significant negative correlation of the accumulated total deforestation values (km2 with the pH-value (in all the study sites, and a significant positive correlation with temperature (only in two sites. However, the deforestation rates (km2/year did not present, in none of the study stations, any significant correlation with water quality parameters. It seems that the effects of deforestation on water quality are related not with the rate but with the total area deforested. It was estimated that the basin’s forested area decreased by 5.17%. Since similar attributes are common in other basins of the whitewater systems of the Brazilian Amazon, this results may be seen as a warning on the effects of deforestation on water quality (reduction in pH and increment in temperature values, in larger areas than those of our study sites. To maintain the conservation and preservation status of the Purus river basin, it is necessary, the implementation of a transboundary watershed management program that could serve as a conservation model for Brazil and other countries of the Amazonian region.

  1. Emerging deforestation trends in tropical dry forests ecoregions of Mexico and Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portillo, C. A.; Cao, G.; Smith, V.

    2015-12-01

    Neotropical dry forests (TDF) have experienced an unprecedented deforestation that is leading to the loss of tropical biodiversity at a rapid pace, but information on deforestation dynamics in TDF is scarce. In this study, we present a sub-continental and national level assessment of TDF loss patterns in Mexico and Central America at high spatial and temporal resolution using remote sensing and GIS technologies. We used the Global Forest Change (GFC) dataset published by Hansen et al. (2013) which shows results from time-series analysis of Landsat images in characterizing global forest extent and change from 2000 through 2013. We analyzed forest loss within and around mapped TDF cover mapped by Portillo-Quintero et al. 2010. In order to minimize errors in source data, we overlaid a 25 x 25 km grid on top of the regional dataset and conducted a cell by cell and country by country inspection at multiple scales using high resolution ancillary data. We identified trends in the clustering of space-time TDF deforestation data using ArcGIS, categorizing trends in: new, consecutive, intensifying, persistent, diminishing, sporadic, oscillating and historical hotspots (high frequency of deforestation events) and cold spots (low frequency of deforestation). In general, the region is experiencing less frequent deforestation events with a higher number of intensifying and new cold spots across TDF landscapes. However, an important number of intensifying and persistent hotspots exist so no general trend in forest loss was detected for the period 2001-2013, except for El Salvador which shows a significant decreasing trend in forest loss. Mexico, Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala are the major sources of intensifying, persistent and new deforestation hot spots. These were identified in the southern pacific coast and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, northwestern Guatemala, both western and eastern Honduras and around Lake Nicaragua in Nicaragua.

  2. Soil microbiome responses to the short-term effects of Amazonian deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarrete, Acacio A; Tsai, Siu M; Mendes, Lucas W; Faust, Karoline; de Hollander, Mattias; Cassman, Noriko A; Raes, Jeroen; van Veen, Johannes A; Kuramae, Eiko E

    2015-05-01

    Slash-and-burn clearing of forest typically results in increase in soil nutrient availability. However, the impact of these nutrients on the soil microbiome is not known. Using next generation sequencing of 16S rRNA gene and shotgun metagenomic DNA, we compared the structure and the potential functions of bacterial community in forest soils to deforested soils in the Amazon region and related the differences to soil chemical factors. Deforestation decreased soil organic matter content and factors linked to soil acidity and raised soil pH, base saturation and exchangeable bases. Concomitant to expected changes in soil chemical factors, we observed an increase in the alpha diversity of the bacterial microbiota and relative abundances of putative copiotrophic bacteria such as Actinomycetales and a decrease in the relative abundances of bacterial taxa such as Chlamydiae, Planctomycetes and Verrucomicrobia in the deforested soils. We did not observe an increase in genes related to microbial nutrient metabolism in deforested soils. However, we did observe changes in community functions such as increases in DNA repair, protein processing, modification, degradation and folding functions, and these functions might reflect adaptation to changes in soil characteristics due to forest clear-cutting and burning. In addition, there were changes in the composition of the bacterial groups associated with metabolism-related functions. Co-occurrence microbial network analysis identified distinct phylogenetic patterns for forest and deforested soils and suggested relationships between Planctomycetes and aluminium content, and Actinobacteria and nitrogen sources in Amazon soils. The results support taxonomic and functional adaptations in the soil bacterial community following deforestation. We hypothesize that these microbial adaptations may serve as a buffer to drastic changes in soil fertility after slash-and-burning deforestation in the Amazon region. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Predictive modelling of contagious deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Purves, Drew; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M

    2013-01-01

    Tropical forests are diminishing in extent due primarily to the rapid expansion of agriculture, but the future magnitude and geographical distribution of future tropical deforestation is uncertain. Here, we introduce a dynamic and spatially-explicit model of deforestation that predicts the potential magnitude and spatial pattern of Amazon deforestation. Our model differs from previous models in three ways: (1) it is probabilistic and quantifies uncertainty around predictions and parameters; (2) the overall deforestation rate emerges "bottom up", as the sum of local-scale deforestation driven by local processes; and (3) deforestation is contagious, such that local deforestation rate increases through time if adjacent locations are deforested. For the scenarios evaluated-pre- and post-PPCDAM ("Plano de Ação para Proteção e Controle do Desmatamento na Amazônia")-the parameter estimates confirmed that forests near roads and already deforested areas are significantly more likely to be deforested in the near future and less likely in protected areas. Validation tests showed that our model correctly predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern of deforestation that accumulates over time, but that there is very high uncertainty surrounding the exact sequence in which pixels are deforested. The model predicts that under pre-PPCDAM (assuming no change in parameter values due to, for example, changes in government policy), annual deforestation rates would halve between 2050 compared to 2002, although this partly reflects reliance on a static map of the road network. Consistent with other models, under the pre-PPCDAM scenario, states in the south and east of the Brazilian Amazon have a high predicted probability of losing nearly all forest outside of protected areas by 2050. This pattern is less strong in the post-PPCDAM scenario. Contagious spread along roads and through areas lacking formal protection could allow deforestation to reach the core, which is currently

  4. National forest cover change in Congo Basin: deforestation, reforestation, degradation and regeneration for the years 1990, 2000 and 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Céline, Ernst; Philippe, Mayaux; Astrid, Verhegghen; Catherine, Bodart; Musampa, Christophe; Pierre, Defourny

    2013-04-01

    This research refers to an object-based automatic method combined with a national expert validation to produce regional and national forest cover change statistics over Congo Basin. A total of 547 sampling sites systematically distributed over the whole humid forest domain are required to cover the six Central African countries containing tropical moist forest. High resolution imagery is used to accurately estimate not only deforestation and reforestation but also degradation and regeneration. The overall method consists of four steps: (i) image automatic preprocessing and preinterpretation, (ii) interpretation by national expert, (iii) statistic computation and (iv) accuracy assessment. The annual rate of net deforestation in Congo Basin is estimated to 0.09% between 1990 and 2000 and of net degradation to 0.05%. Between 2000 and 2005, this unique exercise estimates annual net deforestation to 0.17% and annual net degradation to 0.09%. An accuracy assessment reveals that 92.7% of tree cover (TC) classes agree with independent expert interpretation. In the discussion, we underline the direct causes and the drivers of deforestation. Population density, small-scale agriculture, fuelwood collection and forest's accessibility are closely linked to deforestation, whereas timber extraction has no major impact on the reduction in the canopy cover. The analysis also shows the efficiency of protected areas to reduce deforestation. These results are expected to contribute to the discussion on the reduction in CO2 emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) and serve as reference for the period. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  5. Analysis of the LTE Access Reservation Protocol for Real-Time Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Henning; Kiilerich Pratas, Nuno; Stefanovic, Cedomir

    2013-01-01

    LTE is increasingly seen as a system for serving real-time Machine-to-Machine (M2M) communication needs. The asynchronous M2M user access in LTE is obtained through a two-phase access reservation protocol (contention and data phase). Existing analysis related to these protocols is based...... of the two-phase LTE reservation protocol and asses its performance, when assumptions (1) and (2) do not hold....

  6. The spectral changes of deforestation in the Brazilian tropical savanna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trancoso, Ralph; Sano, Edson E; Meneses, Paulo R

    2015-01-01

    The Cerrado is a biome in Brazil that is experiencing the most rapid loss in natural vegetation. The objective of this study was to analyze the changes in the spectral response in the red, near infrared (NIR), middle infrared (MIR), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) when native vegetation in the Cerrado is deforested. The test sites were regions of the Cerrado located in the states of Bahia, Minas Gerais, and Mato Grosso. For each region, a pair of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) scenes from 2008 (before deforestation) and 2009 (after deforestation) was compared. A set of 1,380 samples of deforested polygons and an equal number of samples of native vegetation have their spectral properties statistically analyzed. The accuracy of deforestation detections was also evaluated using high spatial resolution imagery. Results showed that the spectral data of deforested areas and their corresponding native vegetation were statistically different. The red band showed the highest difference between the reflectance data from deforested areas and native vegetation, while the NIR band showed the lowest difference. A consistent pattern of spectral change when native vegetation in the Cerrado is deforested was identified regardless of the location in the biome. The overall accuracy of deforestation detections was 97.75%. Considering both the marked pattern of spectral changes and the high deforestation detection accuracy, this study suggests that deforestation in Cerrado can be accurately monitored, but a strong seasonal and spatial variability of spectral changes might be expected.

  7. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardi, Patrick; Montenegro, Alvaro; Beltrami, Hugo; Eby, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT) response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.

  8. Deforestation Induced Climate Change: Effects of Spatial Scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Longobardi

    Full Text Available Deforestation is associated with increased atmospheric CO2 and alterations to the surface energy and mass balances that can lead to local and global climate changes. Previous modelling studies show that the global surface air temperature (SAT response to deforestation depends on latitude, with most simulations showing that high latitude deforestation results in cooling, low latitude deforestation causes warming and that the mid latitude response is mixed. These earlier conclusions are based on simulated large scal land cover change, with complete removal of trees from whole latitude bands. Using a global climate model we examine the effects of removing fractions of 5% to 100% of forested areas in the high, mid and low latitudes. All high latitude deforestation scenarios reduce mean global SAT, the opposite occurring for low latitude deforestation, although a decrease in SAT is simulated over low latitude deforested areas. Mid latitude SAT response is mixed. In all simulations deforested areas tend to become drier and have lower SAT, although soil temperatures increase over deforested mid and low latitude grid cells. For high latitude deforestation fractions of 45% and above, larger net primary productivity, in conjunction with colder and drier conditions after deforestation cause an increase in soil carbon large enough to produce a net decrease of atmospheric CO2. Our results reveal the complex interactions between soil carbon dynamics and other climate subsystems in the energy partition responses to land cover change.

  9. New law puts Bolivian biodiversity hotspot on road to deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Helle, Joose; Eklund, Johanna; Balmford, Andrew; Mónica Moraes, R; Reyes-García, Victoria; Cabeza, Mar

    2018-01-08

    In August 2017, the Bolivian government passed a contentious law downgrading the legal protection of the Isiboro-Sécure National Park and Indigenous Territory (TIPNIS, for its Spanish acronym), the ancestral homeland of four lowland indigenous groups and one of Bolivia's most iconic protected areas. Due to its strategic position straddling the Andes and Amazonia, TIPNIS represents not only a key biodiversity hotspot in Bolivia, but one of the most biodiverse regions on Earth, harboring exceptional levels of endemism and globally important populations of megafauna, as well as protecting substantial topographic complexity likely to support both wildlife migration and species range shifts in response to climate change [1]. The new law, set to authorize the construction of a deeply-contested road through the core of the park, has reopened one of the highest profile socio-environmental conflicts in Latin America. Roads in tropical forests often lead to habitat conversion, and indeed within TIPNIS more than 58% of deforestation is concentrated 5 km or less away from existing roads. It, therefore, seems very likely that the planned road will magnify the current scale and pace of deforestation in TIPNIS, underscoring the urgent need for revisiting the road plans. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Analysis of Human Activities in Nature Reserves Based on Nighttime Light Remote Sensing and Microblogging Data - by the Case of National Nature Reserves in Jiangxi Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, F.; Li, X.; Xu, H.

    2017-09-01

    The study used the mainstream social media in china - Sina microblogging data combined with nighttime light remote sensing and various geographical data to reveal the pattern of human activities and light pollution of the Jiangxi Provincial National Nature Reserves. Firstly, we performed statistical analysis based on both functional areas and km-grid from the perspective of space and time, and selected the key areas for in-depth study. Secondly, the relationship between microblogging data and nighttime light remote sensing, population, GDP, road coverage, road distance and road type in nature reserves was analyzed by Spearman correlation coefficient method, so the distribution pattern and influencing factors of the microblogging data were explored. Thirdly, a region where the luminance value was greater than 0.2 was defined as a light region. We evaluated the management status by analyzing the distribution of microblogging data in both light area and non-light area. Final results showed that in all nature reserves, the top three were the Lushan Nature Reserve, the Jinggangshan Nature Reserve, the Taohongling National Nature Reserve of Sikas both on the total number and density of microblogging ; microblogging had a significant correlation with nighttime light remote sensing , the GDP, population, road and other factors; the distribution of microblogging near roads in protected area followed power laws; luminous radiance of Lushan Nature Reserve was the highest, with 43 percent of region was light at night; analysis combining nighttime light remote sensing with microblogging data reflected the status of management of nature reserves.

  11. Changes in size of deforested patches in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Souza, Carlos; Ewers, Robert M

    2012-10-01

    Different deforestation agents, such as small farmers and large agricultural businesses, create different spatial patterns of deforestation. We analyzed the proportion of deforestation associated with different-sized clearings in the Brazilian Amazon from 2002 through 2009. We used annual deforestation maps to determine total area deforested and the size distribution of deforested patches per year. The size distribution of deforested areas changed over time in a consistent, directional manner. Large clearings (>1000 ha) comprised progressively smaller amounts of total annual deforestation. The number of smaller clearings (6.25-50.00 ha) remained unchanged over time. Small clearings accounted for 73% of all deforestation in 2009, up from 30% in 2002, whereas the proportion of deforestation attributable to large clearings decreased from 13% to 3% between 2002 and 2009. Large clearings were concentrated in Mato Grosso, but also occurred in eastern Pará and in Rondônia. In 2002 large clearings accounted for 17%, 15%, and 10% of all deforestation in Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia, respectively. Even in these states, where there is a highly developed agricultural business dominated by soybean production and cattle ranching, the proportional contribution of large clearings to total deforestation declined. By 2009 large clearings accounted for 2.5%, 3.5%, and 1% of all deforestation in Mato Grosso, Pará, and Rondônia, respectively. These changes in deforestation patch size are coincident with the implementation of new conservation policies by the Brazilian government, which suggests that these policies are not effectively reducing the number of small clearings in primary forest, whether these are caused by large landholders or smallholders, but have been more effective at reducing the frequency of larger clearings. ©2012 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dezécache, Camille; Salles, Jean-Michel; Vieilledent, Ghislain; Hérault, Bruno

    2017-09-01

    Whilst high-resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision-making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account multiple drivers of deforestation in tropical forested areas, where the intensity of deforestation is explicitly predicted based on socio-economic variables. By coupling a model of deforestation location based on spatial environmental variables with several sub-models of deforestation intensity based on socio-economic variables, we were able to create a map of predicted deforestation over the period 2001-2014 in French Guiana. This map was compared to a reference map for accuracy assessment, not only at the pixel scale but also over cells ranging from 1 to approximately 600 sq. km. Highly significant relationships were explicitly established between deforestation intensity and several socio-economic variables: population growth, the amount of agricultural subsidies, gold and wood production. Such a precise characterization of socio-economic processes allows to avoid overestimation biases in high deforestation areas, suggesting a better integration of socio-economic processes in the models. Whilst considering deforestation as a purely geographical process contributes to the creation of conservative models unable to effectively assess changes in the socio-economic and political contexts influencing deforestation trends, this explicit characterization of the socio-economic dimension of deforestation is critical for the creation of deforestation scenarios in REDD+ projects. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Biofuels: The hidden cause of deforestation?

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Alison; Lebensohn, Ignacio; Lickacz, Lindsay; Clarke, Louise

    2009-01-01

    The objective of the project is to establish a causal relationship between the biofuel market in the USA and the Amazonic Deforestation. The project parts from an objectivist approach and uses economic as well as environmental theories as a starting point. It attempts to demonstrate that biofuels are not as environmentally friendly as advertised, but instead have a detrimental effect on the Amazon Rainforest. The project utilizes statistics as a main source for empirical data, as well various...

  14. Possible climatic impact of tropical deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potter, G L; Ellsaesser, H W; MacCracken, M C; Luther, F M

    1975-12-25

    A computer model of climate changes resulting from removal of tropical rain forests to increase arable acreage is described. A chain of consequences is deduced from the model which begins with deforestation and ends with overall global cooling and a reduction in precipitation. A model of the global water budget shows that the reduction in precipitation is accompanied by cooling in the upper tropical troposphere, a lowering of the tropical tropopause, and a warming of the lower tropical stratosphere. (HLW)

  15. Deforestation crimes and conflicts in the Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Boekhout van Solinge, T.

    2010-01-01

    This article explores and explains deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest. It primarily takes a green criminological perspective and looks at the harm that is inflicted on many of the Amazon’s inhabitants, including indigenous populations such as ‘uncontacted’ tribes of hunters-gatherers, the oldest human societies. The green criminological perspective also implies that the definition of victimisation is being enlarged: not only (future) humans, but also non-humans can be considered...

  16. Fast Virtual Fractional Flow Reserve Based Upon Steady-State Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul D. Morris, PhD

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Fractional flow reserve (FFR-guided percutaneous intervention is superior to standard assessment but remains underused. The authors have developed a novel “pseudotransient” analysis protocol for computing virtual fractional flow reserve (vFFR based upon angiographic images and steady-state computational fluid dynamics. This protocol generates vFFR results in 189 s (cf >24 h for transient analysis using a desktop PC, with <1% error relative to that of full-transient computational fluid dynamics analysis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that physiological lesion significance was influenced less by coronary or lesion anatomy (33% and more by microvascular physiology (59%. If coronary microvascular resistance can be estimated, vFFR can be accurately computed in less time than it takes to make invasive measurements.

  17. Environmental Concerns of Deforestation in Myanmar 2001–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuyuan Wang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation in Myanmar has recently attracted much attention worldwide. This study examined spatio-temporal patterns of deforestation and forest carbon flux in Myanmar from 2001 to 2010 and environmental impacts at the regional scale using land products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. The results suggest that the total deforestation area in Myanmar was 21,178.8 km2, with an annual deforestation rate of 0.81%, and that the total forest carbon release was 20.06 million tons, with an annual rate of 0.37%. Mangrove forests had the highest deforestation and carbon release rates, and deciduous forests had both the largest deforestation area and largest amount of carbon release. During the study period, the south and southwestern regions of Myanmar, especially Ayeyarwady and Rakhine, were deforestation hotspots (i.e., the highest deforestation and carbon release rates occurred in these regions. Deforestation caused significant carbon release, reduced evapotranspiration (ET, and increased land surface temperatures (LSTs in deforested areas in Myanmar during the study period. Constructive policy recommendations are put forward based on these research results.

  18. Land Use Change Increases Streamflow Across the Arc of Deforestation in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, M. C.; Lopes, A. V.; Cohn, A.; Larsen, L. G.; Thompson, S. E.

    2018-04-01

    Nearly half of recent decades' global forest loss occurred in the Amazon and Cerrado (tropical savanna) biomes of Brazil, known as the arc of deforestation. Despite prior analysis in individual river basins, a generalizable empirical understanding of the effect of deforestation on streamflow across this region is lacking. We frame land use change in Brazil as a natural experiment and draw on in situ and remote sensing evidence in 324 river basins covering more than 3 × 106 km2 to estimate streamflow changes caused by deforestation and agricultural development between 1950 and 2013. Deforestation increased dry season low flow by between 4 and 10 percentage points (relative to the forested condition), corresponding to a regional- and time-averaged rate of increase in specific streamflow of 1.29 mm/year2, equivalent to a 4.08 km3/year2 increase, assuming a stationary climate. In conjunction with rainfall and temperature variations, the net (observed) average increase in streamflow over the same period was 0.76 mm/year2, or 2.41 km3/year2. Thus, net increases in regional streamflow in the past half century are 58% of those that would have been experienced with deforestation given a stationary climate. This study uses a causal empirical analysis approach novel to the water sciences to verify the regional applicability of prior basin-scale studies, provides a proof of concept for the use of observational causal identification methods in the water sciences, and demonstrates that deforestation masks the streamflow-reducing effects of climate change in this region.

  19. A large-dimensional factor analysis of the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse

    This paper assesses the economy-wide effects of US unconventional monetary policy shocks. A precise identification of the unconventional monetary policy shocks is achieved by imposing zero and sign restrictions on a number of impulse responses from a large-dimensional dynamic factor model....... In particular, an unconventional expansionary monetary policy shock is identified as a shock that increases the Federal Reserve's market share of US treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, and leads to an improvement in the real economy and improved credit conditions. I find that an unconventional monetary...... securities by the Federal Reserve Bank avoided a severe downturn according to estimates from a counterfactual analysis....

  20. Effects of Case Western Reserve University's transverse analysis on the quality of orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yehya Mostafa, Raweya; Bous, Rany M; Hans, Mark G; Valiathan, Manish; Copeland, Garrison E; Palomo, Juan Martin

    2017-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of using the transverse analysis developed at Case Western Reserve University (CWRU) in Cleveland, Ohio. The hypotheses were based on the following: (1) Does following CWRU's transverse analysis improve the orthodontic results? (2) Does following CWRU's transverse analysis minimize the active treatment duration? A retrospective cohort research study was conducted on a randomly selected sample of 100 subjects. The sample had CWRU's analysis performed retrospectively, and the sample was divided according to whether the subjects followed what CWRU's transverse analysis would have suggested. The American Board of Orthodontics discrepancy index was used to assess the pretreatment records, and quality of the result was evaluated using the American Board of Orthodontics cast/radiograph evaluation. The Mann-Whitney test was used for the comparison. CWRU's transverse analysis significantly improved the total cast/radiograph evaluation scores (P = 0.041), especially the buccolingual inclination component (P = 0.001). However, it did not significantly affect treatment duration (P = 0.106). CWRU's transverse analysis significantly improves the orthodontic results but does not have significant effects on treatment duration. Copyright © 2017 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Tropical Deforestation, Community Forests, and Protected Areas in the Maya Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Barton. Bray

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Community forests and protected areas have each been proposed as strategies to stop deforestation. These management strategies should be regarded as hypotheses to be evaluated for their effectiveness in particular places. We evaluated the community-forestry hypothesis and the protected-area hypothesis in community forests with commercial timber production and strict protected areas in the Maya Forest of Guatemala and Mexico. From land-use and land cover change (LUCC maps derived from satellite images, we compared deforestation in 19 community forests and 11 protected areas in both countries in varying periods from 1988 to 2005. Deforestation rates were higher in protected areas than in community forests, but the differences were not significant. An analysis of human presence showed similar deforestation rates in inhabited protected areas and recently inhabited community forests, but the differences were not significant. There was also no significant difference in deforestation between uninhabited protected areas, uninhabited community forests, and long-inhabited community forests. A logistic regression analysis indicated that the factors correlated with deforestation varied by country. Distance to human settlements, seasonal wetlands, and degree and length of human residence were significant in Guatemala, and distance to previous deforestation and tropical semideciduous forest were significant in Mexico. Varying contexts and especially colonization histories are highlighted as likely factors that influence different outcomes. Poorly governed protected areas perform no better as a conservation strategy than poorly governed community forests with recent colonists in active colonization fronts. Long-inhabited extractive communities perform as well as uninhabited strict protected areas under low colonization pressure. A review of costs and benefits suggests that community forests may generate more local income with lower costs. Small sample sizes

  2. Development of Early Warning System Using ALOS-2/PALSAR-2 Data to Detect and Prevent Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayashi, M.; Nagatani, I.; Watanabe, T.; Tadono, T.; Miyoshi, H.; Watanabe, M.; Koyama, C.; Shimada, M.; Ogawa, T.; Ishii, K.; Higashiuwatoko, T.; Miura, M.; Okonogi, H.; Adachi, K.; Morita, T.

    2017-12-01

    Satellite observation is an efficient method for monitoring deforestation, and a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is useful especially in cloudy tropical forest regions. In this context, JICA and JAXA cooperate to operate the deforestation monitoring system acquired data by the Phased Array type L-band SAR-2 (PALSAR-2) onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2), which is named as "JICA-JAXA Forest Early Warning System in the Tropics" (JJ-FAST), and it have been released on November 2016. JJ-FAST detects deforestation areas, and provides their positional information for 77 countries, which is covering almost all tropical forests. It uses PALSAR-2 ScanSAR observation mode (wide-observation swath width) image, which is 50 m spatial resolution acquired at 1.5 months interval. The dark change areas compared with in two acquisitions by PALSAR-2 HV-polarization images are identified as deforestations in the system. We conducted field surveys to validate detection accuracy of the JJ-FAST in Peru (November and December, 2016), Botswana (April, 2017), and Gabon (July, 2017). As the results, 15 of 18 detected areas were correct deforestation areas, therefore user's accuracy could be confirmed as 83.3 % from limited number of the validation data. Erroneous detection areas were caused by seasonal change in agricultural land and open burning in grass land. For improvement of the accuracy, such areas must be excluded from the analysis by additional algorithms e.g. estimation of accurate masking for non-forested areas. Therefore, we are revising the forest map used for pre-processing step in the system. The JJ-FAST can be expected to contribute to monitor and reduce illegal deforestation activities in tropical forests.

  3. A Study on PolInSAR Coherence Based Regression Analysis of Forest Biomass (BARKOT Reserve Forest India), Using RADARSAT-2 Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, J.; Kumar, S.; Kushwaha, S. P. S.

    2015-04-01

    Forests cover 30% of the world's land surface, and are home to around 90% of the world's flora and fauna. They serve as one of the world's largest carbon sinks, absorbing 2.4 million tons of CO2 each year and storing billions more in form of biomass. Around 6 million hectares of forest is lost or changed each year and as much as a fifth of global emissions are estimated to come from deforestation. Hence accurate estimation of forest biophysical variables is necessary as it is a key parameter in determination of forest inventories, vegetation modeling and global carbon cycle. SAR Remote sensing technique is capable of providing accurate and reliable information about forest parameters. The present work aims to explore the potential of C-band Radarsat-2 Polarimetric Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PolinSAR) technique for developing a relationship between complex coherence and forest aboveground biomass (t/ha). In order to attain our objective Radarsat-2 satellite interferometric pair of 4th March 2013(master image) and 28th March 2013(slave image) were acquired for Barkot Reserve Forest, Dehradun, India. Field inventory was done for 30 plots (31.62m x 31.62m) and tree height and stem diameter were procured for each plot which were later utilized in calculation of aboveground biomass(AGB).Work emphasizes on the application of PolinSAR coherence instead of using SAR backscatter which saturates after a certain value of biomass content. Complex coherence values for different polarization channels were computed with the help of polarimetric interferometric coherence matrix. Retrieved complex coherences were investigated individually and then regression analysis was carried with the field estimated aboveground biomass. R2 value of HV+VH complex coherence component was found to be relatively higher than other polarization channel components

  4. The Communication Model and the Nature of Change in Terms of Deforestation in China since 1949

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Dexin; Chao, Chin-Chung

    2010-01-01

    This article explores the communication model and nature of change in terms of deforestation in China since 1949. Through Lasswell's communication model and the theory of change and via historical analysis and extended literature review, we have discovered: First, Mao's government adopted an effective one-way top-down communication model with…

  5. Moving forward socio-economically focused models of deforestation

    OpenAIRE

    DEZÉCACHE CAMILLE; SALLES JEAN-MICHEL; VIEILLEDENT GHISLAIN; HÉRAULT BRUNO

    2017-01-01

    While high resolution spatial variables contribute to a good fit of spatially-explicit deforestation models, socio-economic processes are often beyond the scope of these models. Such a low level of interest in the socio-economic dimension of deforestation limits the relevancy of these models for decision making and may be the cause of their failure to accurately predict observed deforestation trends in the medium term. This study aims to propose a flexible methodology for taking into account ...

  6. The Perplex of Deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    A.W Yalew

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation has been a complex phenomenon to study in sub-Saharan Africa. The average annual deforestation rate in the region is by far higher than the world average. What causes and drives deforestation in the region are debated to date. The present paper is motivated by this debate. It attempts to test whether the maintained hypotheses on the causes of deforestation can give answer to the problem in sub-Saharan Africa. It used average cross-national data of forty eight countries in the re...

  7. Deforestation of Peano continua and minimal deformation retracts☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, G.; Meilstrup, M.

    2012-01-01

    Every Peano continuum has a strong deformation retract to a deforested continuum, that is, one with no strongly contractible subsets attached at a single point. In a deforested continuum, each point with a one-dimensional neighborhood is either fixed by every self-homotopy of the space, or has a neighborhood which is a locally finite graph. A minimal deformation retract of a continuum (if it exists) is called its core. Every one-dimensional Peano continuum has a unique core, which can be obtained by deforestation. We give examples of planar Peano continua that contain no core but are deforested. PMID:23471120

  8. Measuring the effectiveness of protected area networks in reducing deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andam, Kwaw S; Ferraro, Paul J; Pfaff, Alexander; Sanchez-Azofeifa, G Arturo; Robalino, Juan A

    2008-10-21

    Global efforts to reduce tropical deforestation rely heavily on the establishment of protected areas. Measuring the effectiveness of these areas is difficult because the amount of deforestation that would have occurred in the absence of legal protection cannot be directly observed. Conventional methods of evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas can be biased because protection is not randomly assigned and because protection can induce deforestation spillovers (displacement) to neighboring forests. We demonstrate that estimates of effectiveness can be substantially improved by controlling for biases along dimensions that are observable, measuring spatial spillovers, and testing the sensitivity of estimates to potential hidden biases. We apply matching methods to evaluate the impact on deforestation of Costa Rica's renowned protected-area system between 1960 and 1997. We find that protection reduced deforestation: approximately 10% of the protected forests would have been deforested had they not been protected. Conventional approaches to evaluating conservation impact, which fail to control for observable covariates correlated with both protection and deforestation, substantially overestimate avoided deforestation (by over 65%, based on our estimates). We also find that deforestation spillovers from protected to unprotected forests are negligible. Our conclusions are robust to potential hidden bias, as well as to changes in modeling assumptions. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical methods, conservation scientists and policy makers can better understand the relationships between human and natural systems and can use this to guide their attempts to protect critical ecosystem services.

  9. The Australian money market and the operations of the Reserve Bank of Australia: a comparative analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Dotsey

    1987-01-01

    This article provides a comparative analysis of central bank operating procedures in Australia and the United States. It also examines the effect that the structure of overnight money markets, reserve requirements, and central bank lending procedures have on monetary control in both countries. Evidently the Australian financial structure is such that an interest rate instrument provides superior control of money, a result that may not hold in the United States.

  10. Forest Clearing Dynamics and the Expansion of Landholdings in Apuí, a Deforestation Hotspot on Brazil's Transamazon Highway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel C. Carrero

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available We present a local-scale case study in the Rio Juma Settlement Project (RJSP in Apuí, a deforestation hotspot in the southern portion of Brazil's state of Amazonas. We analyze land accumulation and land use strategies of households with a view to elucidating how their strategies are shaping deforestation. More than 76% of the household sample was from southern Brazil, and around 72% of them migrated to older expansion frontiers before reaching Apuí. The percentage of properties with legal land titles was up to five times less while land accumulation was much greater than reported for other settlement projects in Brazil. Land use change followed different patterns depending on whether the lot had been obtained with 100% forest cover or with inherited land use. Regression-tree analysis showed that the size of the cattle herd and the total area of the property do not always explain the area deforested, nor is the size of the deforested area necessarily related to productive activities. Lack of income obtained from livestock indicated that at least 30% of the cases studied were related to the speculative nature of land acquisition and deforestation. Increasing consolidation of land in larger, more highly capitalized ranches indicates the potential for high rates of deforestation in the future, even when the profitability of livestock is questionable.

  11. Cognitive reserve in Parkinson's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindle, John V; Martyr, Anthony; Clare, Linda

    2014-01-01

    The concept of cognitive reserve is proposed to explain the mismatch between the degree of pathological changes and their clinical manifestations and has been used to help understand the variation in the rate of cognitive decline and the development of dementias. It is not clear whether this concept applies to cognitive performance, cognitive decline and dementia in Parkinson's disease (PD). A systematic review was conducted using the most commonly described proxies for cognitive reserve of education, occupation and leisure activities. Thirty four papers were found on education and cognition in PD but there were no studies of the other proxies of reserve. A random effects meta-analysis was used to assess the associations between education and cross-sectional cognitive assessments, longitudinal global cognitive decline and a long term dementia diagnosis. There was a significant association between higher education and cross-sectional performance of MMSE, global cognition, mild cognitive impairment, attention, executive function, visuospatial function and memory. There was a small but significant association between higher education and a reduced rate of cognitive decline. There was no association with a final dementia diagnosis. There was not enough information to perform an analysis on the rate and timing of transition to dementia. Higher levels of education are associated with significantly better cognitive performance and a small but significant slowing in cognitive decline but are not associated with a reduction in long-term dementia in PD. More detailed, standardized, longitudinal studies are required to study conclusively the effects cognitive reserve in PD. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Deforestation in Amazonia impacts riverine carbon dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langerwisch, Fanny; Walz, Ariane; Rammig, Anja; Tietjen, Britta; Thonicke, Kirsten; Cramer, Wolfgang

    2016-12-01

    Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 %) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20 % (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60 % due to

  13. Analysis of selected gravity profiles on the Hanford Reservation, Richland, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Little, J.T.; Richard, B.H.

    1977-07-01

    Regional gravity surveys have been conducted on the Hanford Reservation in the past. This analysis is an attempt at detailed gravity profiling over selected areas of the reservation. Over 450 gravity readings were taken during the summer of 1976. The Bouguer anomaly values of these stations, along with facies cross sections, were used to construct two-dimensional models. The models depict the buried basalt bedrock surface and the overlying sedimentary cover of the areas selected for profiling. In the eastern section of the reservation, the interpretation of the data suggests that there are three major buried valleys cut into the bedrock. These channels are most likely a combination of structural downwarping and erosion of these downwarps by an ancestral Columbia River. Along the western boundary of the reservation there are two closed depressions which are believed to be the result of the sub-fluvial vortex effect of Kolk erosion. It was found that, although two-dimensional gravity models are useful in determining the buried bedrock surface, they are ineffectual in delineating sedimentary contacts

  14. The Impact of a Amazonian Deforestation on Dry-Season Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negri, Andrew J.; Adler, Robert F.; Xu, Liming; Surratt, Jason

    2003-01-01

    Many modeling studies have concluded that widespread deforestation of Amazonia would lead to decreased rainfall. We analyze geosynchronous infrared satellite data with respect to percent cloudiness, and analyze rain estimates from microwave sensors aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. We conclude that in the dry-season, when the effects of the surface are not overwhelmed by synoptic-scale weather disturbances, shallow cumulus cloudiness, deep convective cloudiness, and rainfall occurrence all are larger over the deforested and non-forested (savanna) regions than over areas of dense jungle. This difference is in response to a local circulation initiated by the differential heating of the region s varying forestation. Analysis of the diurnal cycle of cloudiness reveals a shift in the onset of convection toward afternoon hours in the deforested and towards the morning hours in the savanna regions when compared to the neighboring forested regions. Analysis of 14 years of monthly estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data revealed that in only in August was there a pattern of higher monthly rainfall amounts over the deforested region.

  15. THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK AND THE FEDERAL RESERVE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorina Clichici

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to identify the main differences and similarities between the European Central Bank (ECB and US Federal Reserve (FED in terms of their functional framework and monetary policy. The research is based on a comparative analysis of the history of establishing the Eurosystem and the Federal Reserve System, which has influenced the way these central banks operate today. It also analyzes the policy responses of the two institutions to the 2007 global financial crisis, since both their non-conventional policy measures and the effects thereof on growth, inflation and unemployment rates were slightly different. The paper finds that there are differences between the ECB and FED rather regarding the organization and functioning of the Committees for monetary policy and monetary policy objectives than the institutional structure and policy framework

  16. Economic impacts of deforestation in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zoboli, R.

    1992-01-01

    Assessments of the economic impacts of the deterioration of European forests are being made from two points of view - the marketing of wood products and the potential economic benefits which can possibly be derived from a healthy environment. This article considers the principal results of these studies and evaluates their limitations and usefulness. In reviewing some scientific aspects of current debate on the probable causes of deforestation, as well as, in examining government efforts towards air pollution abatement, the article makes reference to tabled data on deforestation in Europe. Overall, the results of economic impacts studies based on the use of simulation models indicate a significant reduction in local supplies to the European wood products industry thus resulting in a dramatic drop in world market share and consequent market instability. Economic losses due to the inability to capitalize on healthy forests are valued in the order of billions of dollars per year in terms of the loss of business in the wood products and commercial-recreational sectors. While pointing out the uncertainties involved in the formulation of these assessments, the article also suggests how their results can constitute useful guidelines in cost benefit analyses of proposed government interventions. A discussion is made of the efficacy of some of these interventions now being considered aimed at reforestation and air pollution abatement

  17. Indigenous burning as conservation practice: neotropical savanna recovery amid agribusiness deforestation in Central Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, James R; Brondízio, Eduardo S; Hetrick, Scott S; Coimbra, Carlos E A

    2013-01-01

    International efforts to address climate change by reducing tropical deforestation increasingly rely on indigenous reserves as conservation units and indigenous peoples as strategic partners. Considered win-win situations where global conservation measures also contribute to cultural preservation, such alliances also frame indigenous peoples in diverse ecological settings with the responsibility to offset global carbon budgets through fire suppression based on the presumed positive value of non-alteration of tropical landscapes. Anthropogenic fire associated with indigenous ceremonial and collective hunting practices in the Neotropical savannas (cerrado) of Central Brazil is routinely represented in public and scientific conservation discourse as a cause of deforestation and increased CO2 emissions despite a lack of supporting evidence. We evaluate this claim for the Xavante people of Pimentel Barbosa Indigenous Reserve, Brazil. Building upon 23 years of longitudinal interdisciplinary research in the area, we used multi-temporal spatial analyses to compare land cover change under indigenous and agribusiness management over the last four decades (1973-2010) and quantify the contemporary Xavante burning regime contributing to observed patterns based on a four year sample at the end of this sequence (2007-2010). The overall proportion of deforested land remained stable inside the reserve (0.6%) but increased sharply outside (1.5% to 26.0%). Vegetation recovery occurred where reserve boundary adjustments transferred lands previously deforested by agribusiness to indigenous management. Periodic traditional burning by the Xavante had a large spatial distribution but repeated burning in consecutive years was restricted. Our results suggest a need to reassess overreaching conservation narratives about the purported destructiveness of indigenous anthropogenic fire in the cerrado. The real challenge to conservation in the fire-adapted cerrado biome is the long

  18. Quantifying the risk of deforestation in Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manners, Rhys; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo

    2015-04-01

    Latin American and Caribbean countries have seen considerable deforestation due to a complex web of interconnected and interdependent causes, which include agricultural expansion, infrastructure development, social demographics and governmental policies and activity. It is necessary for successful and efficient policy development to understand how variability in these causes can potentially result in increased or decreased deforestation. The purpose of this study is to develop a tool that can quantify the risk, as in the threat or pressure, of potential deforestation, whilst identifying the key indicators that contribute to this risk. This tool will take the form of a composite index that will provide spatial and temporal trends of deforestation risk across Latin America and the Caribbean. The development of the Deforestation Risk Index (DRI) was based upon work performed in the EU project ROBIN1. Indicators of deforestation included in the index were identified based upon the multi-scalar approach adopted in ROBIN- nationally from principal component analysis and econometric modelling, provincially from extensive interviews with experts and farmers (subsistence and commercial) in Amazonian regions of Bolivia and Brazil, and locally from stakeholder workshops in Bolivia, Brazil and Mexico. The identification process was supported by an extensive literature review. In total, 11 indicators were identified and grouped into four components (biophysical, economic, governance and social) capable of explaining the risk of deforestation in Latin America and Caribbean countries. The DRI was calculated for 24 Latin American and Caribbean countries in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010 using national-level data collected from open access databases (FAOStat, WorldBank and UNDP). The DRI was subjected to two weighting schemes; the first based upon the opinions of experts from ROBIN (weighted biophysical and governance components heavily), and the second developed from the results of

  19. Implic ations of climate change and deforestation on behavioural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Indiscriminate forest exploitation leads to deforestation also, release of CO2 and other pollutants tampers with ozone layer which has been acting as a big umbrella against ultraviolet radiation. This paper discusses effects of climate change and deforestation on physical environment as they affect animal population, ...

  20. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon: A Classroom Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijman, Jan; Hill, A. David

    1991-01-01

    Presents a classroom project dealing with tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Addresses environmental consequences and economic, social, and political causes. Involves both lectures and individual research and reports by student groups on deforestation causes. Includes a note-playing activity in which students make recommendations for…

  1. Deforestation and the environmental Kuznets curve. An institutional perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Culas, Richard J. [School of Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Locked Bag 588, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678 (Australia)

    2007-03-01

    Institutions for secure property rights and better environmental policies for moving the system towards a sustainable growth path can reduce the height of an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between income and deforestation. This study examines the impact of these specific institutional factors on the EKC relationship for deforestation across Latin American, African and Asian countries. The factors related to agricultural production, population, economy and governmental policies of each country are hypothesised to affect deforestation. Results of the Latin American countries show significant evidence of an EKC relationship for deforestation and also relevance of the institutional factors to reduce the rate of deforestation. Improvements in institutions for secure property rights and better environmental policies can thus significantly reduce the rate of deforestation without hindering the level of economic growth. Evidence also suggests that the effect of agricultural production on deforestation could be halted by strengthening institutional factors. There was found to be complementarity between the institutional factors and forest sector polices, and an additive effect between the institutional factors and forest products export promotion policies, which could also eventually reduce the rate of deforestation. (author)

  2. Revisiting deforestation in Africa (1990–2010): One more lost ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This spotlight revisits the dynamics and prognosis outlined in the late 1980's published in Déforestation en Afrique. This book on deforestation in Africa utilized available statistical data from the 1980's and was a pioneering self - styled attempt to provide a holistic viewpoint of the ongoing trends pertaining to deforestation in ...

  3. Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, S; Bawa, K S

    2006-06-01

    Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

  4. Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Douglas C.; Defries, Ruth S.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Anderson, Liana O.; Arai, Egidio; Del Bon Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Freitas, Ramon; Morisette, Jeff

    2006-09-01

    Intensive mechanized agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon grew by >3.6 million hectares (ha) during 2001-2004. Whether this cropland expansion resulted from intensified use of land previously cleared for cattle ranching or new deforestation has not been quantified and has major implications for future deforestation dynamics, carbon fluxes, forest fragmentation, and other ecosystem services. We combine deforestation maps, field surveys, and satellite-based information on vegetation phenology to characterize the fate of large (>25-ha) clearings as cropland, cattle pasture, or regrowing forest in the years after initial clearing in Mato Grosso, the Brazilian state with the highest deforestation rate and soybean production since 2001. Statewide, direct conversion of forest to cropland totaled >540,000 ha during 2001-2004, peaking at 23% of 2003 annual deforestation. Cropland deforestation averaged twice the size of clearings for pasture (mean sizes, 333 and 143 ha, respectively), and conversion occurred rapidly; >90% of clearings for cropland were planted in the first year after deforestation. Area deforested for cropland and mean annual soybean price in the year of forest clearing were directly correlated (R2 = 0.72), suggesting that deforestation rates could return to higher levels seen in 2003-2004 with a rebound of crop prices in international markets. Pasture remains the dominant land use after forest clearing in Mato Grosso, but the growing importance of larger and faster conversion of forest to cropland defines a new paradigm of forest loss in Amazonia and refutes the claim that agricultural intensification does not lead to new deforestation. agriculture | carbon | land use change | soybean

  5. Cropland expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Douglas C.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.; Anderson, Liana O.; Arai, Egidio; del Bon Espirito-Santo, Fernando; Freitas, Ramon; Morisette, Jeff

    2006-01-01

    Intensive mechanized agriculture in the Brazilian Amazon grew by >3.6 million hectares (ha) during 2001–2004. Whether this cropland expansion resulted from intensified use of land previously cleared for cattle ranching or new deforestation has not been quantified and has major implications for future deforestation dynamics, carbon fluxes, forest fragmentation, and other ecosystem services. We combine deforestation maps, field surveys, and satellite-based information on vegetation phenology to characterize the fate of large (>25-ha) clearings as cropland, cattle pasture, or regrowing forest in the years after initial clearing in Mato Grosso, the Brazilian state with the highest deforestation rate and soybean production since 2001. Statewide, direct conversion of forest to cropland totaled >540,000 ha during 2001–2004, peaking at 23% of 2003 annual deforestation. Cropland deforestation averaged twice the size of clearings for pasture (mean sizes, 333 and 143 ha, respectively), and conversion occurred rapidly; >90% of clearings for cropland were planted in the first year after deforestation. Area deforested for cropland and mean annual soybean price in the year of forest clearing were directly correlated (R2 = 0.72), suggesting that deforestation rates could return to higher levels seen in 2003–2004 with a rebound of crop prices in international markets. Pasture remains the dominant land use after forest clearing in Mato Grosso, but the growing importance of larger and faster conversion of forest to cropland defines a new paradigm of forest loss in Amazonia and refutes the claim that agricultural intensification does not lead to new deforestation. PMID:16973742

  6. Contribution of brain or biological reserve and cognitive or neural reserve to outcome after TBI: A meta-analysis (prior to 2015).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Jane L; Wheaton, Patricia

    2015-08-01

    Brain/biological (BR) and cognitive/neural reserve (CR) have increasingly been used to explain some of the variability that occurs as a consequence of normal ageing and neurological injuries or disease. However, research evaluating the impact of reserve on outcomes after adult traumatic brain injury (TBI) has yet to be quantitatively reviewed. This meta-analysis consolidated data from 90 studies (published prior to 2015) that either examined the relationship between measures of BR (genetics, age, sex) or CR (education, premorbid IQ) and outcomes after TBI or compared the outcomes of groups with high and low reserve. The evidence for genetic sources of reserve was limited and often contrary to prediction. APOE ∈4 status has been studied most, but did not have a consistent or sizeable impact on outcomes. The majority of studies found that younger age was associated with better outcomes, however most failed to adjust for normal age-related changes in cognitive performance that are independent of a TBI. This finding was reversed (older adults had better outcomes) in the small number of studies that provided age-adjusted scores; although it remains unclear whether differences in the cause and severity of injuries that are sustained by younger and older adults contributed to this finding. Despite being more likely to sustain a TBI, males have comparable outcomes to females. Overall, as is the case in the general population, higher levels of education and pre-morbid IQ are both associated with better outcomes. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. DEFORESTATION AND LANDSLIDES IN YUNNAN, CHINA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieczorek, Gerald F.; Wu, Jishan; Li, Tianchi

    1987-01-01

    Landslides historically have caused severe erosion problems in the Xiao River drainage region of northeastern Yunnan Province, China, that hence resulted in serious economic and social consequences. Owing to monsoonal storms of high rainfall intensity, the erosion potential is high in this mountainous, seismically active region. Landslides transported large quantities of materials into the ravines. During intense storms, high runoff from the deforested areas has mobilized this material into debris flows. Where these flows emerged onto flatter slopes in the lower parts of the watersheds, the channels were too small to hold them, so farmland and villages were inundated. Debris flows in this region during June-August 1985 killed 12 people, damaged roads and the main rail line to Kunming, the capital of Yunnan Province, inundated farmland, and overflowed debris-retention structures. To mitigate these severe erosion problems, several different methods have been used.

  8. Deforestation and Forest Fires in Roraima and Their Relationship with Phytoclimatic Regions in the Northern Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Pereira, Vaneza Barreto; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar; Barbosa, Reinaldo Imbrozio

    2015-05-01

    Deforestation and forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon are a regional-scale anthropogenic process related to biomass burning, which has a direct impact on global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. Containment of this process requires characterizing its spatial distribution and that of the environmental factors related to its occurrence. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of deforested areas and forest fires in the State of Roraima from 2000 to 2010. We mapped deforested areas and forest fires using Landsat images and associated their occurrence with two phytoclimatic zones: zone with savanna influence (ZIS), and zone without savanna influence (ZOS). Total deforested area during the interval was estimated at 3.06 × 103 km2 (ZIS = 55 %; ZOS = 45 %) while total area affected by forest fires was estimated at 3.02 × 103 km2 (ZIS = 97.7 %; ZOS = 2.3 %). Magnitude of deforestation in Roraima was not related to the phytoclimatic zones, but small deforested areas (≤17.9 ha) predominated in ZOS while larger deforestation classes (>17.9 ha) predominated in ZIS, which is an area with a longer history of human activities. The largest occurrence of forest fires was observed in the ZIS in years with El Niño events. Our analysis indicates that the areas most affected by forest fires in Roraima during 2000-2010 were associated with strong climatic events and the occurrence these fires was amplified in ZIS, a sensitive phytoclimatic zone with a higher risk of anthropogenic fires given its drier climate and open forest structure.

  9. Deforestation and forest fires in Roraima and their relationship with phytoclimatic regions in the northern Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barni, Paulo Eduardo; Pereira, Vaneza Barreto; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar; Barbosa, Reinaldo Imbrozio

    2015-05-01

    Deforestation and forest fires in the Brazilian Amazon are a regional-scale anthropogenic process related to biomass burning, which has a direct impact on global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions. Containment of this process requires characterizing its spatial distribution and that of the environmental factors related to its occurrence. The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of deforested areas and forest fires in the State of Roraima from 2000 to 2010. We mapped deforested areas and forest fires using Landsat images and associated their occurrence with two phytoclimatic zones: zone with savanna influence (ZIS), and zone without savanna influence (ZOS). Total deforested area during the interval was estimated at 3.06 × 10(3) km(2) (ZIS = 55 %; ZOS = 45 %) while total area affected by forest fires was estimated at 3.02 × 10(3) km(2) (ZIS = 97.7 %; ZOS = 2.3 %). Magnitude of deforestation in Roraima was not related to the phytoclimatic zones, but small deforested areas (≤17.9 ha) predominated in ZOS while larger deforestation classes (>17.9 ha) predominated in ZIS, which is an area with a longer history of human activities. The largest occurrence of forest fires was observed in the ZIS in years with El Niño events. Our analysis indicates that the areas most affected by forest fires in Roraima during 2000-2010 were associated with strong climatic events and the occurrence these fires was amplified in ZIS, a sensitive phytoclimatic zone with a higher risk of anthropogenic fires given its drier climate and open forest structure.

  10. Biomass fuel burning and its implications: deforestation and greenhouse gases emissions in Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahir, S N A; Rafique, M; Alaamer, A S

    2010-07-01

    Pakistan is facing problem of deforestation. Pakistan lost 14.7% of its forest habitat between 1990 and 2005 interval. This paper assesses the present forest wood consumption rate by 6000 brick kilns established in the country and its implications in terms of deforestation and emission of greenhouse gases. Information regarding consumption of forest wood by the brick kilns was collected during a manual survey of 180 brick kiln units conducted in eighteen provincial divisions of country. Considering annual emission contributions of three primary GHGs i.e., CO(2), CH(4) and N(2)O, due to burning of forest wood in brick kiln units in Pakistan and using IPCC recommended GWP indices, the combined CO(2)-equivalent has been estimated to be 533019 t y(-1). Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Education increases reserve against Alzheimer's disease - evidence from structural MRI analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Yawu; Julkunen, Valtteri; Paajanen, Teemu; Soininen, Hilkka; Westman, Eric; Wahlund, Lars-Olof; Aitken, Andrew; Sobow, Tomasz; Mecocci, Patrizia; Tsolaki, Magda; Vellas, Bruno; Muehlboeck, Sebastian; Spenger, Christian; Lovestone, Simon; Simmons, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine whether years of schooling influences regional cortical thicknesses and volumes in Alzheimer's disease (AD), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and healthy age-matched controls. Using an automated image analysis pipeline, 33 regional cortical thickness and 15 regional volumes measures from MRI images were determined in 121 subjects with MCI, 121 patients with AD, and 113 controls from AddNeuroMed study. Correlations with years of schooling were determined and more highly and less highly educated subjects compared, controlling for intracranial volume, age, gender, country of origin, cognitive status, and multiple testing. After controlling for confounding factors and multiple testing, in the control group, subjects with more education had larger regional cortical thickness in transverse temporal cortex, insula, and isthmus of cingulate cortex than subjects with less education. However, in the AD group, the subjects with more education had smaller regional cortical thickness in temporal gyrus, inferior and superior parietal gyri, and lateral occipital cortex than the subjects with less education. No significant difference was found in the MCI group. Education may increase regional cortical thickness in healthy controls, leading to increased brain reserve, as well as helping AD patients to cope better with the effects of brain atrophy by increasing cognitive reserve. (orig.)

  12. Education increases reserve against Alzheimer's disease - evidence from structural MRI analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Yawu [University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio University Hospital, Department of Neurology, P.O.Box 1627, Kuopio (Finland); University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio University Hospital, Department of Clinical Radiology, Kuopio (Finland); Julkunen, Valtteri; Paajanen, Teemu; Soininen, Hilkka [University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio University Hospital, Department of Neurology, P.O.Box 1627, Kuopio (Finland); Westman, Eric; Wahlund, Lars-Olof [Karolinska Institutet, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society, Section of Clinical Geriatrics, Stockholm (Sweden); Aitken, Andrew [South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King' s College London, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre for Mental Health, London (United Kingdom); Sobow, Tomasz [Medical University of Lodz, Department of Old Age Psychiatry and Psychotic Disorders, Lodz (Poland); Mecocci, Patrizia [University of Perugia, Institute of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Perugia (Italy); Tsolaki, Magda [Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Third Department of Neurology, Thessaloniki (Greece); Vellas, Bruno [Universite Paul Sabatier, INSERM U 558, Toulouse Gerontopole University Hospital, Toulouse (France); Muehlboeck, Sebastian [McGill University, McConnell Brain Imaging Center, Montreal (Canada); Spenger, Christian [Karolinska Institutet, Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Stockholm (Sweden); Lovestone, Simon; Simmons, Andrew [South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King' s College London, NIHR Biomedical Research Centre for Mental Health, London (United Kingdom); King' s College London, MRC Centre for Neurodegeneration Research, Institute of Psychiatry, London (United Kingdom); Collaboration: AddNeuroMed Consortium

    2012-09-15

    The aim of this study was to determine whether years of schooling influences regional cortical thicknesses and volumes in Alzheimer's disease (AD), mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and healthy age-matched controls. Using an automated image analysis pipeline, 33 regional cortical thickness and 15 regional volumes measures from MRI images were determined in 121 subjects with MCI, 121 patients with AD, and 113 controls from AddNeuroMed study. Correlations with years of schooling were determined and more highly and less highly educated subjects compared, controlling for intracranial volume, age, gender, country of origin, cognitive status, and multiple testing. After controlling for confounding factors and multiple testing, in the control group, subjects with more education had larger regional cortical thickness in transverse temporal cortex, insula, and isthmus of cingulate cortex than subjects with less education. However, in the AD group, the subjects with more education had smaller regional cortical thickness in temporal gyrus, inferior and superior parietal gyri, and lateral occipital cortex than the subjects with less education. No significant difference was found in the MCI group. Education may increase regional cortical thickness in healthy controls, leading to increased brain reserve, as well as helping AD patients to cope better with the effects of brain atrophy by increasing cognitive reserve. (orig.)

  13. The drivers of tropical deforestation: a comprehensive review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanford, T. J.; Boucher, D.; Elias, P.; Lininger, K.; May-Tobin, C.; Roquemore, S.; Saxon, E.; Martin, J.; Mulik, K.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical forests are disappearing around the world. This clearing causes around 15% of global carbon emissions, leads to the rapid loss of biodiversity, and destroys the livelihoods of many indigenous peoples. We comprehensively reviewed the literature on drivers of tropical deforestation and found a number of trends. While deforestation was predominately driven by small farmers and government action in the 1970s and 1980s, since the 1990s most deforestation has been driven by large scale commercial agriculture. In Latin America, and Brazil in particular, forest clearing has mostly been due to expansion of cattle pastures and for a period in the late 1990s and early 2000s soy bean expansion. In Southeast Asia, deforestation has mainly been due to expansion of oil palm plantations and timber harvesting. In Africa small farmers and wood fuel collection still play a role, although deforestation rates are considerably lower there than in other regions. Additionally, increased urbanization and trends toward a diet based on meat, particularly beef, have help drive deforestation. Biofuels policies around the world are also adding demand, both directly for vegetable oil, and by expanding demand for competing crops such as corn. We examine the extent to which biofuels demand directly and indirectly acts as a driver of deforestation, and the policies that can mitigate this problem by analyzing alternative scenarios of biofuel expansion and their impact on land use change, commodity prices and green house gas emissions.

  14. The Perplex of Deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.W Yalew

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation has been a complex phenomenon to study in sub-Saharan Africa. The average annual deforestation rate in the region is by far higher than the world average. What causes and drives deforestation in the region are debated to date. The present paper is motivated by this debate. It attempts to test whether the maintained hypotheses on the causes of deforestation can give answer to the problem in sub-Saharan Africa. It used average cross-national data of forty eight countries in the region. The data are retrieved from international sources. The Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between two deforestation indicators and five often-cited causes of deforestation were computed. The role of public forest ownership, share of forest and agricultural products in total exports, and the year of forest laws enacted are also discussed. However, it finds no clear, strong, and systematic pattern to argue that population density, rural population, rural poverty, industrial logging for exports, economic growth, late enactment of forest laws, and public ownership of forests are underlying causes of deforestation in the region. The trends of forestland in Rwanda and Zimbabwe vividly present the finding. Therefore, future studies related to the topic in the region shall focus on sub-national panel data.

  15. Qualitative Resting Coronary Pressure Wave Form Analysis to Predict Fractional Flow Reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumura, Mitsuaki; Maehara, Akiko; Johnson, Nils P; Fearon, William F; De Bruyne, Bernard; Oldroyd, Keith G; Pijls, Nico H J; Jenkins, Paul; Ali, Ziad A; Mintz, Gary S; Stone, Gregg W; Jeremias, Allen

    2018-03-27

    To evaluate the predictability of resting distal coronary pressure wave forms for fractional flow reserve (FFR). Resting coronary wave forms were qualitatively evaluated for the presence of (i) dicrotic notch; (ii) diastolic dipping; and (iii) ventricularization. In a development cohort (n=88) a scoring system was developed that was then applied to a validation cohort (n=428) using a multivariable linear regression model to predict FFR and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) to predict FFR ≤0.8. In the development cohort, all 3 qualitative parameters were independent predictors of FFR. However, in a multivariable linear regression model in the validation cohort, qualitative wave form analysis did not further improve the ability of resting distal coronary to aortic pressure ratio (Pd/Pa) (p=0.80) or instantaneous wave-free ratio (iFR) (p=0.26) to predict FFR. Using ROC, the area under the curve of resting Pd/Pa (0.86 versus 0.86, P=0.08) and iFR (0.86 versus 0.86, P=0.26) did not improve by adding qualitative analysis. Qualitative coronary wave form analysis showed moderate classification agreement in predicting FFR but did not add substantially to the resting pressure gradients Pd/Pa and iFR; however, when discrepancies between quantitative and qualitative analyses are observed, artifact or pressure drift should be considered.

  16. Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

  17. Outcrop Analysis of the Cretaceous Mesaverde Group: Jicarilla Apache Reservation, New Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ridgley, Jennie; Dunbar, Robin Wright

    2001-04-24

    Field work for this project was conducted during July and April 1998, at which time fourteen measured sections were described and correlated on or adjacent to Jicarilla Apache Reservation lands. A fifteenth section, described east of the main field area, is included in this report, although its distant location precluded use in the correlations and cross sections presented herein. Ground-based photo mosaics were shot for much of the exposed Mesaverde outcrop belt and were used to assist in correlation. Outcrop gamma-ray surveys at six of the fifteen measured sections using a GAD-6 scintillometer was conducted. The raw gamma-ray data are included in this report, however, analysis of those data is part of the ongoing Phase Two of this project.

  18. Roads Investments, Spatial Intensification and Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan; Walker, Robert; Aldrich, Steven; Caldas, Marcellus; Reis, Eustaquio; Perz, Stephen; Bohrer, Claudio; Arima, Eugenio; Laurance, William; hide

    2007-01-01

    Understanding the impact of road investments on deforestation is part of a complete evaluation of the expansion of infrastructure for development. We find evidence of spatial spillovers from roads in the Brazilian Amazon: deforestation rises in the census tracts that lack roads but are in the same county as and within 100 km of a tract with a new paved or unpaved road. At greater distances from the new roads the evidence is mixed, including negative coefficients of inconsistent significance between 100 and 300 km, and if anything, higher neighbor deforestation at distances over 300 km.

  19. Spatial Causality. An application to the Deforestation Process in Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Aliaga

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the causes of deforestation for a representative set of Bolivian municipalities. The literature on environmental economics insists on the importance of physical and social factors. We focus on the last group of variables. Our objective is to identify causal mechanisms between these factors of risk and the problem of deforestation. To this end, we present a testing strategy for spatial causality, based on a sequence of Lagrange Multipliers. The results that we obtain for the Bolivian case confirm only partially the traditional view of the problem of deforestation. Indeed, we only find unequivocal signs of causality in relation to the structure of property rights.

  20. Brazilian Amazonia Deforestation Detection Using Spatio-Temporal Scan Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, C. A. O.; Santos, N. T.; Carneiro, A. P. S.; Balieiro, A. A. S.

    2012-07-01

    The spatio-temporal models, developed for analyses of diseases, can also be used for others fields of study, including concerns about forest and deforestation. The aim of this paper is to quantitatively check priority areas in order to combat deforestation on the Amazon forest, using the space-time scan statistic. The study area location is at the south of the Amazonas State and cover around 297.183 kilometre squares, including the municipality of Boca do Acre, Labrea, Canutama, Humaita, Manicore, Novo Aripuana e Apui County on the north region of Brazil. This area has showed a significant change for land cover, which has increased the number of deforestation's alerts. Therefore this situation becomes a concern and gets more investigation, trying to stop factors that increase the number of cases in the area. The methodology includes the location and year that deforestation's alert occurred. These deforestation's alerts are mapped by the DETER (Detection System of Deforestation in Real Time in Amazonia), which is carry out by the Brazilian Space Agency (INPE). The software SatScanTM v7.0 was used in order to define space-time permutation scan statistic for detection of deforestation cases. The outcome of this experiment shows an efficient model to detect space-time clusters of deforestation's alerts. The model was efficient to detect the location, the size, the order and characteristics about activities at the end of the experiments. Two clusters were considered actives and kept actives up to the end of the study. These clusters are located in Canutama and Lábrea County. This quantitative spatial modelling of deforestation warnings allowed: firstly, identifying actives clustering of deforestation, in which the environment government official are able to concentrate their actions; secondly, identifying historic clustering of deforestation, in which the environment government official are able to monitoring in order to avoid them to became actives again; and finally

  1. The consequences of rapid deforestation: A North African example

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaimeche, S.E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the consequences of deforestation in Algeria. It focuses on the Wilaya region of Jijel, in the eastern part of the country, which has some of the last, dense, sub-humid Mediterranean forests. The issue of a possible connection between the recent widespread deforestation and the drier conditions affecting the region is discussed. It is also shown how rapid social and economic changes have induced deforestation on such a large scale that erosion and soil losses are reaching unprecedented levels. The paper also points to the loss of economic potential for Algeria's forests. 38 refs, 2 figs, 3 tabs, 3 photos

  2. The diagnostic performance of CT-derived fractional flow reserve for evaluation of myocardial ischaemia confirmed by invasive fractional flow reserve: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S; Tang, X; Peng, L; Luo, Y; Dong, R; Liu, J

    2015-05-01

    To review the literature on the diagnostic accuracy of CT-derived fractional flow reserve (FFRCT) for the evaluation of myocardial ischaemia in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease, with invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the reference standard. A PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane cross-search was performed. The pooled diagnostic accuracy of FFRCT, with FFR as the reference standard, was primarily analysed, and then compared with that of CT angiography (CTA). The thresholds to diagnose ischaemia were FFR ≤0.80 or CTA ≥50% stenosis. Data extraction, synthesis, and statistical analysis were performed by standard meta-analysis methods. Three multicentre studies (NXT Trial, DISCOVER-FLOW study and DeFACTO study) were included, examining 609 patients and 1050 vessels. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) for FFRCT were 89% (85-93%), 71% (65-75%), 70% (65-75%), 90% (85-93%), 3.31 (1.79-6.14), 0.16 (0.11-0.23), and 21.21 (9.15-49.15) at the patient-level, and 83% (78-63%), 78% (75-81%), 61% (56-65%), 92% (89-90%), 4.02 (1.84-8.80), 0.22 (0.13-0.35), and 19.15 (5.73-63.93) at the vessel-level. At per-patient analysis, FFRCT has similar sensitivity but improved specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR-, and DOR versus those of CTA. At per-vessel analysis, FFRCT had a slightly lower sensitivity, similar NPV, but improved specificity, PPV, LR+, LR-, and DOR compared with those of CTA. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves for FFRCT was 0.8909 at patient-level and 0.8865 at vessel-level, versus 0.7402 for CTA at patient-level. FFRCT, which was associated with improved diagnostic accuracy versus CTA, is a viable alternative to FFR for detecting coronary ischaemic lesions. Copyright © 2015 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Bryan Mound InSAR Analysis U.S. Strategic petroleum Reserve.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lord, Anna C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-06-01

    The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is a stockpile of emergency crude oil to be tapped into if a disruption in the nation's oil supply occurs. The SPR is comprised of four salt dome sites. Subsidence surveys have been conducted either annually or biennially at all four sites over the life of the program. Monitoring of surface behavior is a first line defense to detecting possible subsurface cavern integrity issues. Over the life of the Bryan Mound site, subsidence rates over abandoned Cavern 3 have continuously been the highest at the site. In an effort to try and understand the subsurface dynamics, specifically over Bryan Mound Cavern 3, historic interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data was acquired and processed by TRE Altamira. InSAR involves the processing of multiple satellite synthetic aperture radar scenes acquired across the same location of the Earth's surface at different times to map surface deformation. The analysis of the data has the ability to detect millimeters of motion spanning days, months, year and decades, across specific sites. The intent in regards to the Bryan Mound site was (1) to confirm the higher subsidence rates recorded over abandoned Cavern 3 indicated by land survey and (2) understand the regional surface behavior. This report describes the InSAR analysis results, how those results compare to the historical collection of land survey data, and what additional information the data has provided towards understanding the response recorded at the surface.

  4. ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY OF RESERVED AUTOMATIC CONTROL SYSTEMS OF INDUSTRIAL POWER PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Anishchenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the comparative analysis of the main structural schemes for reserved automatic control and regulation devices of important objects of power supply with increased reliability requirements. There were analyzed schemes of passive and active doubling with control device, passive and active tripling, combined redundancy and majority redundancy according to schemes: “two from three” and “three from five”. On the results of calculations fulfilled there was made comparison of these schemes for ideal devices of built-in control and ideal majority elements. Scales of preferences of systems according to criterion of average time maximum and average probability of no-failure operation were built. These scales have variable character, depending on intervals in which there is a parameter obtained by multiplication of failure rate and time. The sequence of systems’ preferences is changing and is depending on each system failures and in moments of curves crossing of average probability of no-failure operation of systems. Analysis of calculation results showed the advantages of tripling systems and combined redundancy in reliability and this is achieved by a great amount of expenses for these systems creation. Under definite conditions the reliability of system of passive tripling is higher compared to system of active doubling. The majority schemes allow determining not only the full but also single (metrological failures. Boundary value of unreliability of built-in control device is determined, and this allows making a perfect choice between systems of active and passive redundancy.

  5. Water Management in the Camargue Biosphere Reserve: Insights from Comparative Mental Models Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Mathevet

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Mental models are the cognitive representations of the world that frame how people interact with the world. Learning implies changing these mental models. The successful management of complex social-ecological systems requires the coordination of actions to achieve shared goals. The coordination of actions requires a level of shared understanding of the system or situation; a shared or common mental model. We first describe the elicitation and analysis of mental models of different stakeholder groups associated with water management in the Camargue Biosphere Reserve in the Rhône River delta on the French Mediterranean coast. We use cultural consensus analysis to explore the degree to which different groups shared mental models of the whole system, of stakeholders, of resources, of processes, and of interactions among these last three. The analysis of the elicited data from this group structure enabled us to tentatively explore the evidence for learning in the nonstatute Water Board; comprising important stakeholders related to the management of the central Rhône delta. The results indicate that learning does occur and results in richer mental models that are more likely to be shared among group members. However, the results also show lower than expected levels of agreement with these consensual mental models. Based on this result, we argue that a careful process and facilitation design can greatly enhance the functioning of the participatory process in the Water Board. We conclude that this methodology holds promise for eliciting and comparing mental models. It enriches group-model building and participatory approaches with a broader view of social learning and knowledge-sharing issues.

  6. Analysis of Multi-Arm Caliper Data for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has an increasing reliance on mul t i - arm caliper surveys to assess the integrity of casing for cavern access wells and to determine priorities for casing remediation. Multi - arm caliper (MAC) surveys provide a view of well casing deformation by reporting radial measurements of the inner cas ing wall as the tool is drawn through the casing. Over the last several years the SPR has collected a large number of modern MAC surveys. In total, these surveys account for over 100 million individual measurements. The surveys were collected using diff ering survey vendors and survey hardware. This has resulted in a collection of disparate data sets which confound attempts to make well - to - well or time - dependent evaluations. In addition, the vendor supplied MAC interpretations often involve variables wh ich are not well defined or which may not be applicable to casings for cavern access wells. These factors reduce the usability of these detailed data sets. In order to address this issue and provide an independent analysis of multi - arm caliper survey data, Sandia National Labs has developed processing techniques and analysis variables which allow for the comparison of MAC survey data regardless of the source of the survey data. These techniques use the raw radial arm information and newly developed analysis variables to assess the casing status and provide a means for well - to - well and time - dependent analyses. Well - to - well and t ime - dependent investigation of the MAC survey data provide s information to prioritize well remediation activities and identify wells with integrity issues. This paper presents the challenges in using disparate MAC survey data, techniques developed to address these challenges and some o f the insights gained from these new techniques.

  7. Contribution of Agriculture to Deforestation in the Tropics: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This has resulted in a high rate of deforestation and posing a serious ..... formation of top soils, creation of favourable soil structure and storage of nutrients that are .... is non-renewable within any reasonable biological and economic time scale.

  8. Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Knutson, T.R.; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere-land model version 2 (AM2/LM2) coupled to a 50-m-thick slab ocean model has been used to investigate remote responses to tropical deforestation. Magnitudes and significance of differences between a control run and a deforested run are assessed through comparisons of 50-yr time series, accounting for autocorrelation and field significance. Complete conversion of the broadleaf evergreen forests of South America, central Africa, and the islands of Oceania to grasslands leads to highly significant local responses. In addition, a broad but mild warming is seen throughout the tropical troposphere (deforested run and the control run are similar in magnitude and area to the differences between nonoverlapping segments of the control run. These simulations suggest that extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural climate variability.

  9. Impact of deforestation in the Amazon basin on cloud climatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingfeng; Chagnon, Frédéric J F; Williams, Earle R; Betts, Alan K; Renno, Nilton O; Machado, Luiz A T; Bisht, Gautam; Knox, Ryan; Bras, Rafael L

    2009-03-10

    Shallow clouds are prone to appear over deforested surfaces whereas deep clouds, much less frequent than shallow clouds, favor forested surfaces. Simultaneous atmospheric soundings at forest and pasture sites during the Rondonian Boundary Layer Experiment (RBLE-3) elucidate the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed correlation between clouds and land cover. We demonstrate that the atmospheric boundary layer over the forested areas is more unstable and characterized by larger values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE) due to greater humidity than that which is found over the deforested area. The shallow convection over the deforested areas is relatively more active than the deep convection over the forested areas. This greater activity results from a stronger lifting mechanism caused by mesoscale circulations driven by deforestation-induced heterogeneities in land cover.

  10. The role of supply-chain initiatives in reducing deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambin, Eric F.; Gibbs, Holly K.; Heilmayr, Robert; Carlson, Kimberly M.; Fleck, Leonardo C.; Garrett, Rachael D.; le Polain de Waroux, Yann; McDermott, Constance L.; McLaughlin, David; Newton, Peter; Nolte, Christoph; Pacheco, Pablo; Rausch, Lisa L.; Streck, Charlotte; Thorlakson, Tannis; Walker, Nathalie F.

    2018-01-01

    A major reduction in global deforestation is needed to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss. Recent private sector commitments aim to eliminate deforestation from a company's operations or supply chain, but they fall short on several fronts. Company pledges vary in the degree to which they include time-bound interventions with clear definitions and criteria to achieve verifiable outcomes. Zero-deforestation policies by companies may be insufficient to achieve broader impact on their own due to leakage, lack of transparency and traceability, selective adoption and smallholder marginalization. Public-private policy mixes are needed to increase the effectiveness of supply-chain initiatives that aim to reduce deforestation. We review current supply-chain initiatives, their effectiveness, and the challenges they face, and go on to identify knowledge gaps for complementary public-private policies.

  11. Predicting the deforestation-trend under different carbon-prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obersteiner Michael

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global carbon stocks in forest biomass are decreasing by 1.1 Gt of carbon annually, owing to continued deforestation and forest degradation. Deforestation emissions are partly offset by forest expansion and increases in growing stock primarily in the extra-tropical north. Innovative financial mechanisms would be required to help reducing deforestation. Using a spatially explicit integrated biophysical and socio-economic land use model we estimated the impact of carbon price incentive schemes and payment modalities on deforestation. One payment modality is adding costs for carbon emission, the other is to pay incentives for keeping the forest carbon stock intact. Results Baseline scenario calculations show that close to 200 mil ha or around 5% of todays forest area will be lost between 2006 and 2025, resulting in a release of additional 17.5 GtC. Today's forest cover will shrink by around 500 million hectares, which is 1/8 of the current forest cover, within the next 100 years. The accumulated carbon release during the next 100 years amounts to 45 GtC, which is 15% of the total carbon stored in forests today. Incentives of 6 US$/tC for vulnerable standing biomass payed every 5 year will bring deforestation down by 50%. This will cause costs of 34 billion US$/year. On the other hand a carbon tax of 12 $/tC harvested forest biomass will also cut deforestation by half. The tax income will, if enforced, decrease from 6 billion US$ in 2005 to 4.3 billion US$ in 2025 and 0.7 billion US$ in 2100 due to decreasing deforestation speed. Conclusion Avoiding deforestation requires financial mechanisms that make retention of forests economically competitive with the currently often preferred option to seek profits from other land uses. Incentive payments need to be at a very high level to be effective against deforestation. Taxes on the other hand will extract budgetary revenues from the regions which are already poor. A combination of

  12. The diagnostic performance of CT-derived fractional flow reserve for evaluation of myocardial ischaemia confirmed by invasive fractional flow reserve: a meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, S.; Tang, X.; Peng, L.; Luo, Y.; Dong, R.; Liu, J.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To review the literature on the diagnostic accuracy of CT-derived fractional flow reserve (FFR CT ) for the evaluation of myocardial ischaemia in patients with suspected or known coronary artery disease, with invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) as the reference standard. Materials and methods: A PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane cross-search was performed. The pooled diagnostic accuracy of FFR CT , with FFR as the reference standard, was primarily analysed, and then compared with that of CT angiography (CTA). The thresholds to diagnose ischaemia were FFR ≤0.80 or CTA ≥50% stenosis. Data extraction, synthesis, and statistical analysis were performed by standard meta-analysis methods. Results: Three multicentre studies (NXT Trial, DISCOVER-FLOW study and DeFACTO study) were included, examining 609 patients and 1050 vessels. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR−), and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) for FFR CT were 89% (85–93%), 71% (65–75%), 70% (65–75%), 90% (85–93%), 3.31 (1.79–6.14), 0.16 (0.11–0.23), and 21.21 (9.15–49.15) at the patient-level, and 83% (78–63%), 78% (75–81%), 61% (56–65%), 92% (89–90%), 4.02 (1.84–8.80), 0.22 (0.13–0.35), and 19.15 (5.73–63.93) at the vessel-level. At per-patient analysis, FFR CT has similar sensitivity but improved specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR−, and DOR versus those of CTA. At per-vessel analysis, FFR CT had a slightly lower sensitivity, similar NPV, but improved specificity, PPV, LR+, LR−, and DOR compared with those of CTA. The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic curves for FFR CT was 0.8909 at patient-level and 0.8865 at vessel-level, versus 0.7402 for CTA at patient-level. Conclusions: FFR CT , which was associated with improved diagnostic accuracy versus CTA, is a viable alternative to FFR for detecting coronary ischaemic lesions

  13. Mining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

    OpenAIRE

    Sonter, Laura J.; Herrera, Diego; Barrett, Damian J.; Galford, Gillian L.; Moran, Chris J.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.

    2017-01-01

    Mining poses significant and potentially underestimated risks to tropical forests worldwide. In Brazil’s Amazon, mining drives deforestation far beyond operational lease boundaries, yet the full extent of these impacts is unknown and thus neglected in environmental licensing. Here we quantify mining-induced deforestation and investigate the aspects of mining operations, which most likely contribute. We find mining significantly increased Amazon forest loss up to 70 km beyond mining lease boun...

  14. Deforestation in Portugal: causes, consequences and possible solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Branco, João; Oliveira, Márcia; Ferreira, Ricardo; Póvoa, Orlanda

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation is not a new problem although world-wide population awareness is increasing. This issue has terrible environmental, social and economic consequences due to the over-exploitation of the natural resources and to alternative land uses which are more profitable in the short term. The combat and mitigation of deforestation is one of the biggest challenges for the 21st Century in order to achieve the Millennium Goals and a global sustainable development at all levels of human activiti...

  15. Deforestation and stream warming affect body size of Amazonian fishes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilha, Paulo; Schiesari, Luis; Yanagawa, Fernando I; Jankowski, KathiJo; Navas, Carlos A

    2018-01-01

    Declining body size has been suggested to be a universal response of organisms to rising temperatures, manifesting at all levels of organization and in a broad range of taxa. However, no study to date evaluated whether deforestation-driven warming could trigger a similar response. We studied changes in fish body size, from individuals to assemblages, in streams in Southeastern Amazonia. We first conducted sampling surveys to validate the assumption that deforestation promoted stream warming, and to test the hypothesis that warmer deforested streams had reduced fish body sizes relative to cooler forest streams. As predicted, deforested streams were up to 6 °C warmer and had fish 36% smaller than forest streams on average. This body size reduction could be largely explained by the responses of the four most common species, which were 43-55% smaller in deforested streams. We then conducted a laboratory experiment to test the hypothesis that stream warming as measured in the field was sufficient to cause a growth reduction in the dominant fish species in the region. Fish reared at forest stream temperatures gained mass, whereas those reared at deforested stream temperatures lost mass. Our results suggest that deforestation-driven stream warming is likely to be a relevant factor promoting observed body size reductions, although other changes in stream conditions, like reductions in organic matter inputs, can also be important. A broad scale reduction in fish body size due to warming may be occurring in streams throughout the Amazonian Arc of Deforestation, with potential implications for the conservation of Amazonian fish biodiversity and food supply for people around the Basin.

  16. Deforestation and stream warming affect body size of Amazonian fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagawa, Fernando I.; Jankowski, KathiJo; Navas, Carlos A.

    2018-01-01

    Declining body size has been suggested to be a universal response of organisms to rising temperatures, manifesting at all levels of organization and in a broad range of taxa. However, no study to date evaluated whether deforestation-driven warming could trigger a similar response. We studied changes in fish body size, from individuals to assemblages, in streams in Southeastern Amazonia. We first conducted sampling surveys to validate the assumption that deforestation promoted stream warming, and to test the hypothesis that warmer deforested streams had reduced fish body sizes relative to cooler forest streams. As predicted, deforested streams were up to 6 °C warmer and had fish 36% smaller than forest streams on average. This body size reduction could be largely explained by the responses of the four most common species, which were 43–55% smaller in deforested streams. We then conducted a laboratory experiment to test the hypothesis that stream warming as measured in the field was sufficient to cause a growth reduction in the dominant fish species in the region. Fish reared at forest stream temperatures gained mass, whereas those reared at deforested stream temperatures lost mass. Our results suggest that deforestation-driven stream warming is likely to be a relevant factor promoting observed body size reductions, although other changes in stream conditions, like reductions in organic matter inputs, can also be important. A broad scale reduction in fish body size due to warming may be occurring in streams throughout the Amazonian Arc of Deforestation, with potential implications for the conservation of Amazonian fish biodiversity and food supply for people around the Basin. PMID:29718960

  17. Analysis of Groundwater Reserved in Dusun Ngantru Sekaran Village East Java

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandjaitan, N. H.; Waspodo, R. S. B.; Karunia, T. U.; Mustikasari, N.

    2018-05-01

    Limited capacity of fresh water in some areas in Indonesia made some regions had drought problem or lack of surface water. One of the solutions was increasing ground water used. This research aimed to identify aquifer and the pattern of ground water flow and also to determine potential of groundwater reserved in Dusun Ngantru. The result would be use to find the right location to be used as groundwater wells. The method used in this research was geoelectric method. This method was used to determine the condition of aquifer and rocks under the soil and to define hydrogeological condition of Dusun Ngantru.The analysis results can be used as a reference of where and what kind of groundwater runs underneath, in order to be optimally utilized. The results of hydrogeological studies and the distribution of aquifer showed that there were unconfined and semi aquifers. The direction of the groundwater flow in the study site varied greatly as the lithologic arrangement varied just as much. In the study locations there were Ledok formation, Mundu formation, and Lidah formation. Groundwater potential ware predicted of 55.33 m3/day or 0.64 lt/s. Based on water quality standard in Indonesia, the water quality of wells were classified as first class quality.

  18. Quality analysis of effluents from biodigesters in lodges located in the Cuyabeno Wildlife Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Gutiérrez Cruz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In the Cuyabeno Wildlife Reserve near Laguna Grande and Cuyabeno river, several ecological hotels have been built to meet the touristic demand; therefore these eco-lodges generate wastewaters. The Ministry of Environment, responsible for biodiversity conservation, has ordered the implementation of biodigesters for the treatment of these waters. After three years of implementing the system, it is proposed to check the quality of these waters, through the analysis of physical-chemical parameters: temperature, conductivity, pH, sulfates, nitrates and nitrites, detergents, COD, BOD5, oils and fats; and microbiological such as faecal coliforms. These results were compared with the current environmental legislation: TULSMA "Limits discharged to a body of fresh water." Sampling was subject to the provisions of standard Regulation INEN 2 169: 2013 and sampled at the time of high and low rainfall. The results determined that biodigesters only meet the standard regulations in three parameters: nitrates and nitrites; sulfates and temperature; and violate the following regulations: BOD5, COD and pH; while in the remaining four parameters, there is a variation among the results. In conclusion all digesters violate the regulations, at least on one of the parameters.

  19. THE VASCULAR FLORA ANALYSIS OF “STRUNGILE MARI” RESERVE (BUCEGI MASSIF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Natalia Matei

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Almost all states in special European states show a real concern, about irrational utilization of biodiversity components and a big general lack of information about this; also the small number of legal and special institutions is able to provide the basic information about environmental degradation phenomena at continental and national level. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN will solve this global problem. IUCN tends to support and makes all profile organizations from all over the world to conduct their business in order to preserve the integrity and diversity of nature, also to make sure that all natural resources are used in a fair way and take into consideration sustainability. The special landscape layout and the wilderness relief join the conservative floristic fund with an endemic value; those elements which offer originality to “Strungile Mari” Reserve are unique and show a real scientific interest. The aim of this paper is to highlight the scientific importance of the studied area by analyzing the floristic composition through the taxonomic point of view, bioforms, geoelements and ecological indices analysis.

  20. Analysis of heavy metals concentration in water and sediment in the Hara biosphere reserve, southern Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowrouzi, Mohsen; Mansouri, Borhan; Nabizadeh, Sahar; Pourkhabbaz, Alireza

    2014-02-01

    This study determined the concentration of heavy metals (Al, Cr, Cu, and Zn) in water and sediments at nine sites in the Hara biosphere reserve of southern Iran during the summer and winter 2010. Determination of Al, Cr, Cu, and Zn in water was carried out by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometer (Shimadzu, AA 610s) and in sediment by flame atomic absorption spectrometer (Perkin Elmer, AA3030). Results showed that the heavy metal concentrations in the water samples decreased in the sequence of Zn > Al > Cu > Cr, while in sediment samples were Cr > Zn > Cu > Al. Data analysis indicated that with the exception of Al, there was a Pearson's correlation coefficient between pH and Cu, Zn, and Cr at α = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.001 in sediment (in winter), respectively. There were also significant differences between heavy metals of Cr, Cu, and Zn during the two seasons (p < 0.001) in the water and sediment.

  1. SPECT myocardial perfusion versus fractional flow reserve for evaluation of functional ischemia: A meta analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tao; Yang, Lin-feng; Zhai, Ji-liang; Li, Jiang; Wang, Qi-meng; Zhang, Rui-jie; Wang, Sen; Peng, Zhao-hui; Li, Min; Sun, Gang

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: The present meta-analysis illustrates the accuracy of myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS) to diagnose functional stenotic coronary artery disease (CAD) with fractional flow reserve (FFR) as standard reference. Methods: All investigators screened and selected studies that compared MPS with FFR in symptomatic patients with suspected CAD. Patients and study characteristics were independently extracted by two investigators; differences were resolved by consensus. Results: 13 articles, including 1,017 patients, 699 vessels were included in the study. No significant publication bias was detected (P = 0.65). At the patient level, the summary sensitivity and specificity were 77% (95% confidence interval [CI], 70–83%) and 77% (95%CI, 67–84%) for MPS. Vessel-level pooled sensitivity was 66% (95%CI, 57–74%) and specificity was 81% (95%CI, 70–89%). The overall diagnostic performance of MPS was moderate. [The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve was 0.83]. No study influenced the pooled results larger than 0.03. Conclusions: The accuracy between FFR and MPS SPECT was moderate

  2. SPECT myocardial perfusion versus fractional flow reserve for evaluation of functional ischemia: A meta analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tao; Yang, Lin-feng [Department of Medical Imaging, Jinan Military General Hospital, No, 25, Shifan Road, Jinan, Shandong Province, China. 250031 (China); Zhai, Ji-liang [Department of Medical Imaging, The Branch of TaiAn Central Hospital, Middle of Changcheng Road, Shandong Province, China. 271000 (China); Li, Jiang [Department of Medical Imaging, Affiliated Hospital of Taishan Medical University, No, 706, Taishan Road, Shandong Province, China. 271000 (China); Wang, Qi-meng [Department of Medical Imaging, Taishan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, No, 216, Yingxuan Street, Shandong Province, China. 271000. (China); Zhang, Rui-jie; Wang, Sen; Peng, Zhao-hui [Department of Medical Imaging, Jinan Military General Hospital, No, 25, Shifan Road, Jinan, Shandong Province, China. 250031 (China); Li, Min, E-mail: liminyingxiang@163.com [Department of Medical Imaging, Jinan Military General Hospital, No, 25, Shifan Road, Jinan, Shandong Province, China. 250031 (China); Sun, Gang, E-mail: cjr.sungang@vip.163.com [Department of Medical Imaging, Jinan Military General Hospital, No, 25, Shifan Road, Jinan, Shandong Province, China. 250031 (China)

    2014-06-15

    Purpose: The present meta-analysis illustrates the accuracy of myocardial perfusion SPECT (MPS) to diagnose functional stenotic coronary artery disease (CAD) with fractional flow reserve (FFR) as standard reference. Methods: All investigators screened and selected studies that compared MPS with FFR in symptomatic patients with suspected CAD. Patients and study characteristics were independently extracted by two investigators; differences were resolved by consensus. Results: 13 articles, including 1,017 patients, 699 vessels were included in the study. No significant publication bias was detected (P = 0.65). At the patient level, the summary sensitivity and specificity were 77% (95% confidence interval [CI], 70–83%) and 77% (95%CI, 67–84%) for MPS. Vessel-level pooled sensitivity was 66% (95%CI, 57–74%) and specificity was 81% (95%CI, 70–89%). The overall diagnostic performance of MPS was moderate. [The area under the summary receiver operating characteristic (sROC) curve was 0.83]. No study influenced the pooled results larger than 0.03. Conclusions: The accuracy between FFR and MPS SPECT was moderate.

  3. Deforestation and its impacts on district Abbottabad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddique, M.; Shahzadi, I.; Yousaf, S.

    2005-01-01

    In District Abbottabad, area cover under forests is 76148 ha, which is 5.4% of the forest resources of the province. The study areas have sufficient natural resources but these natural resources are depleting very rapidly. The present study showed that most of the population living especially near the mountain range is poor, illiterate and having no other means of income generation. Therefore they cut forests trees for the fuel and timber not only to fulfill their domestic needs but also on commercial scale. There are no other alternatives of fuel wood in the area. They mostly depend of forest for fuel wood. People of the area get timber mainly from the nearby forests for construction. Agriculture is the backbone of local economy in the area. The forest trees near the agriculture area are cut down to extend their agricultural land. Soil erosion and flooding is increased because of clearing of land for agriculture. People of the area graze their livestock freely in the rangelands and forests without taking care of their carrying capacity. The political administration and forest department cannot take any step to prevent overgrazing and deforestation activities in the area. Some times the local people damage the plants by cutting or putting them in fire, which causes severe damage to the plants. Lack of awareness among local communities about the importance of natural resources i.e. forest and wildlife. The people considered the wildlife, as free gift of nature there is no restriction on hunting from government or other agency. (author)

  4. Tropical deforestation alters hummingbird movement patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadley, Adam S.; Betts, Matthew G.

    2009-01-01

    Reduced pollination success, as a function of habitat loss and fragmentation, appears to be a global phenomenon. Disruption of pollinator movement is one hypothesis put forward to explain this pattern in pollen limitation. However, the small size of pollinators makes them very difficult to track; thus, knowledge of their movements is largely speculative. Using tiny radio transmitters (0.25 g), we translocated a generalist tropical ‘trap-lining’ hummingbird, the green hermit (Phaethornis guy), across agricultural and forested landscapes to test the hypothesis that movement is influenced by patterns of deforestation. Although, we found no difference in homing times between landscape types, return paths were on average 459±144 m (±s.e.) more direct in forested than agricultural landscapes. In addition, movement paths in agricultural landscapes contained 36±4 per cent more forest than the most direct route. Our findings suggest that this species can circumvent agricultural matrix to move among forest patches. Nevertheless, it is clear that movement of even a highly mobile species is strongly influenced by landscape disturbance. Maintaining landscape connectivity with forest corridors may be important for enhancing movement, and thus in facilitating pollen transfer. PMID:19158031

  5. Deforestation trend in North Sumatra over 1990-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basyuni, M.; Sulistiyono, N.; Wati, R.; Hayati, R.

    2018-02-01

    Deforestation and forest degradation have been previously reported to contributing greenhouse gas emission, the primary driver of global warming. The present paper studies deforestation and reforestation trend in North Sumatra, Indonesia using land-use/land-cover change from 1990-2015. The land-use consists of three classes derived from forest land (primary and secondary dry land forest, primary and secondary swamp forest, primary and secondary mangrove forest). Non-Forest (shrub, oil palm plantation, forest plantation, settlement, barren land, swamp shrub, dry land farming, mixed dry land farming, paddy field, aquaculture, airport, transmigration, and mining), and water body (water and swamp). Results showed that from 33 regencies/city in North Sumatra, among them, 25 districts deforested, which was the highest deforestation rate in Labuhanbatu and South Labuhanbatu (2,238.08 and 1,652.55 ha/year, respectively), only one area reforested, and seven districts showed no deforestation or reforestation. During 25 years observed, the forest has been deforested 22.92%, while nonforest has been increased 11.33% of land-use. The significant increasing loss of North Sumatran forest implies conservation efforts and developing sustainable forest management.

  6. Forest extent and deforestation in tropical Africa since 1900.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleman, Julie C; Jarzyna, Marta A; Staver, A Carla

    2018-01-01

    Accurate estimates of historical forest extent and associated deforestation rates are crucial for quantifying tropical carbon cycles and formulating conservation policy. In Africa, data-driven estimates of historical closed-canopy forest extent and deforestation at the continental scale are lacking, and existing modelled estimates diverge substantially. Here, we synthesize available palaeo-proxies and historical maps to reconstruct forest extent in tropical Africa around 1900, when European colonization accelerated markedly, and compare these historical estimates with modern forest extent to estimate deforestation. We find that forests were less extensive in 1900 than bioclimatic models predict. Resultantly, across tropical Africa, ~ 21.7% of forests have been deforested, yielding substantially slower deforestation than previous estimates (35-55%). However, deforestation was heterogeneous: West and East African forests have undergone almost complete decline (~ 83.3 and 93.0%, respectively), while Central African forests have expanded at the expense of savannahs (~ 1.4% net forest expansion, with ~ 135,270 km 2 of savannahs encroached). These results suggest that climate alone does not determine savannah and forest distributions and that many savannahs hitherto considered to be degraded forests are instead relatively old. These data-driven reconstructions of historical biome distributions will inform tropical carbon cycle estimates, carbon mitigation initiatives and conservation planning in both forest and savannah systems.

  7. Mining drives extensive deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonter, Laura J; Herrera, Diego; Barrett, Damian J; Galford, Gillian L; Moran, Chris J; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

    2017-10-18

    Mining poses significant and potentially underestimated risks to tropical forests worldwide. In Brazil's Amazon, mining drives deforestation far beyond operational lease boundaries, yet the full extent of these impacts is unknown and thus neglected in environmental licensing. Here we quantify mining-induced deforestation and investigate the aspects of mining operations, which most likely contribute. We find mining significantly increased Amazon forest loss up to 70 km beyond mining lease boundaries, causing 11,670 km 2 of deforestation between 2005 and 2015. This extent represents 9% of all Amazon forest loss during this time and 12 times more deforestation than occurred within mining leases alone. Pathways leading to such impacts include mining infrastructure establishment, urban expansion to support a growing workforce, and development of mineral commodity supply chains. Mining-induced deforestation is not unique to Brazil; to mitigate adverse impacts of mining and conserve tropical forests globally, environmental assessments and licensing must considered both on- and off-lease sources of deforestation.

  8. Functional differentiation between fish assemblages from forested and deforested streams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrício Barreto Teresa

    Full Text Available We tested the hypothesis that streams in deforested areas shelter different fish communities to nearby forested areas, and that these disparities are due to environmental parameters that limit or benefit different species according to their functional traits. We compared the community composition of three south east Brazilian streams flanked by riparian forest with three nearby streams in deforested areas. The following functional traits were considered: diet, habitat use, water flow preference, size, and hypoxia tolerance. Differentiation between forested and deforested streams corresponded with the different contributions of three functional groups. Species reported in the literature to be hypoxia tolerant, and exhibiting a variable combination of the other traits prevailed in deforested streams, although we did not find substantial differences in oxygen levels between forested and deforested streams. In forested streams, benthic species associated with a high water flow and an insectivorous diet were dominant. Changes in streams induced by deforestation which are associated with habitat availability, food resources, and physicochemical conditions appear to restrict the occurrence of specialized species and instead benefit tolerant generalists.

  9. Analysis of exploration expenditure for unconventional gas : how investing in exploration would improve reserves and production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Virine, L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper described a method for analyzing the efficiency of exploration investment, which can improve corporate planning. Exploration expenditure is held to be a main indicator of economic activities in the oil and gas industry because exploration is supposed to lead to booking more reserves and increased production. A model was developed for analyzing the correlation between exploration expenditure and producer's reserves and production for conventional and unconventional gas plays in the United States. The model was used to quantitatively assess the exploration expenditures production and reserves of different producers for various conventional and unconventional gas plays. Producer's booked reserves, production from public sources, and reserves and production forecasts were incorporated into the model, which was used to analyze different types of exploration expenditure (land, drilling, and seismic) incurred at various times prior to reserves and production being booked. There was an overall positive correlation between exploration expenditure and reserves and production, but there was significant variance in the correlation between various producers operating in different plays. Unproved land acquisition was strongly correlated to the booking of proved reserves, but there was no correlation between unproved land acquisition and exploration expenditure ratio, reserves, or production. A number of companies had a high exploration expenditure to overall expenditure ratio, but the resulting payoffs were inconsistent. 6 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  10. Spatial and temporal land cover changes in Terminos Lagoon Reserve, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Galera, Ernesto; Piera, Jaume; López, Pilar

    2010-06-01

    Terminos Lagoon ecosystem is the largest fluvial-lagoon estuarine system in the country and one of the most important reserves of coastal flora and fauna in Mexico. Since the seventies, part of the main infrastructure for country's oil extraction is located in this area. Its high biodiversity has motivated different type of studies including deforestation processes and land use planning. In this work we used satellite image analysis to determine land cover changes in the area from 1974 to 2001. Our results indicate that tropical forest and mangroves presented the most extensive losses in its coverage. In contrast, urban areas and induced grassland increased considerably. In 2001 more than half of the ecosystem area showed changes from its original land cover, and a third part of it was deteriorated. The main causes of deforestation were both the increase in grassland and the growth of urban areas. However, deforestation was attenuated by natural reforestation and plant canopy recovery. We conclude that the introduction of cattle and urban development were the main causes for the land cover changes; however, the oil industry activity located in the ecosystem, has promoted indirectly to urban growth and rancher boom.

  11. Physiome approach for the analysis of vascular flow reserve in the heart and brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyung Eun; Ryu, Ah-Jin; Shin, Eun-Seok; Shim, Eun Bo

    2017-06-01

    This work reviews the key aspects of coronary and neurovascular flow reserves with an emphasis on physiomic modeling characteristics by the use of a variety of numerical approaches. First, we explain the definition of fractional flow reserve (FFR) in coronary artery and introduce its clinical significance. Then, computational researches for obtaining FFR are reviewed, and their clinical outcomes are compared. In the case of cerebrovascular reserve (CVR), in spite of substantial progress in the simulation of cerebral hemodynamics, only a few computational studies exist. Thus, we discuss the limitations of CVR simulation study and suggest the challenging issue to overcome these. Also, the future direction of physiomic researches for the flow reserves in coronary arteries and cerebral arteries is described. Also, we introduce a machine learning algorithm trained by the existing physiomic simulation data of flow reserve and suggest a prospective research direction related to this.

  12. Study of climate change related to deforestation in the Xishuangbanna area, Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chungcheng Li; Cong Lai

    1991-01-01

    The analysis of the results of deforestation and the meteorological data of the Xinshuangbanna region of China shows that there are possible relations between the deforestation and climate change. With the forest area decreased by 33% during the past 30 years, the climate of this region has also been changed. The annual mean temperature has been increased by 0.7C, of which the increase is 0.97C in the dry season and 0.53C in the wet season. Together with the annual temperature increase the temperature variations have also been increased, which has resulted in more frequent low temperature damage to the local plantation agriculture. The relative humidity decreased by 3% annually; and the annual precipitation also decreased, with a decrease in the wet season of 6.8% and an increase in the dry season of 20.8%

  13. BRAZILIAN AMAZONIA DEFORESTATION DETECTION USING SPATIO-TEMPORAL SCAN STATISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. O. Vieira

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The spatio-temporal models, developed for analyses of diseases, can also be used for others fields of study, including concerns about forest and deforestation. The aim of this paper is to quantitatively check priority areas in order to combat deforestation on the Amazon forest, using the space-time scan statistic. The study area location is at the south of the Amazonas State and cover around 297.183 kilometre squares, including the municipality of Boca do Acre, Labrea, Canutama, Humaita, Manicore, Novo Aripuana e Apui County on the north region of Brazil. This area has showed a significant change for land cover, which has increased the number of deforestation's alerts. Therefore this situation becomes a concern and gets more investigation, trying to stop factors that increase the number of cases in the area. The methodology includes the location and year that deforestation’s alert occurred. These deforestation's alerts are mapped by the DETER (Detection System of Deforestation in Real Time in Amazonia, which is carry out by the Brazilian Space Agency (INPE. The software SatScanTM v7.0 was used in order to define space-time permutation scan statistic for detection of deforestation cases. The outcome of this experiment shows an efficient model to detect space-time clusters of deforestation’s alerts. The model was efficient to detect the location, the size, the order and characteristics about activities at the end of the experiments. Two clusters were considered actives and kept actives up to the end of the study. These clusters are located in Canutama and Lábrea County. This quantitative spatial modelling of deforestation warnings allowed: firstly, identifying actives clustering of deforestation, in which the environment government official are able to concentrate their actions; secondly, identifying historic clustering of deforestation, in which the environment government official are able to monitoring in order to avoid them to became

  14. Preliminary analysis of surface mining options for Naval Oil Shale Reserve 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-07-20

    The study was undertaken to determine the economic viability of surface mining to exploit the reserves. It is based on resource information already developed for NOSR 1 and conceptual designs of mining systems compatible with this resource. Environmental considerations as they relate to surface mining have been addressed qualitatively. The conclusions on economic viability were based primarily on mining costs projected from other industries using surface mining. An analysis of surface mining for the NOSR 1 resource was performed based on its particular overburden thickness, oil shale thickness, oil shale grade, and topography. This evaluation considered reclamation of the surface as part of its design and cost estimate. The capital costs for mining 25 GPT and 30 GPT shale and the operating costs for mining 25 GPT, 30 GPT, and 35 GPT shale are presented. The relationship between operating cost and stripping ratio, and the break-even stripping ratio (BESR) for surface mining to be competitive with room-and-pillar mining, are shown. Identification of potential environmental impacts shows that environmental control procedures for surface mining are more difficult to implement than those for underground mining. The following three areas are of prime concern: maintenance of air quality standards by disruption, movement, and placement of large quantities of overburden; disruption or cutting of aquifers during the mining process which affect area water supplies; and potential mineral leaching from spent shales into the aquifers. Although it is an operational benefit to place spent shale in the open pit, leaching of the spent shales and contamination of the water is detrimental. It is therefore concluded that surface mining on NOSR 1 currently is neither economically desirable nor environmentally safe. Stringent mitigation measures would have to be implemented to overcome some of the potential environmental hazards.

  15. Gorilla diet in the Lopé Reserve, Gabon: : A nutritional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth Rogers, M; Maisels, Fiona; Williamson, Elizabeth A; Fernandez, Michel; Tutin, Caroline E G

    1990-10-01

    The results of an analysis of gorilla diet in the Lopé Reserve, Gabon are presented. Samples were assayed for nutrients and plant secondary compounds (total phenols, condensed tannins and alkaloids) in an attempt to explain gorilla food choice. The diet is the most diverse so far analysed for gorillas; it seems to be a balance between sugary fruit, proteinaceous leaves, and relatively fibrous stems. Most fruits and herbaceous stems are succulent, but some drier, fibrous fruit and bark is also consumed. Seeds are another component of the diet, including unripe ones. Fruit, seeds, leaves and bark may all contain very high levels of total phenols and condensed tannins; but all herbaceous stems assayed contain low levels of these compounds. Alkaloids are not apparently a significant component of gorilla foods, and may be avoided. Gorillas at Lopé tend to avoid fatty fruit, and select leaves which are high in protein and low in fibre compared to the general vegetation. When fruit and preferred young leaves are scarce, proteinaceous barks and mature leaves, and sugary pith, are important sources of nutrients. We conclude that gorillas exploit the broad frugivore niche in West African lowland forests, and are part of the frugivore community there. What distinguishes them is their ability to eat large fibrous fruit, mature leaves and stems, and to overcome high levels of phenolics (we use "phenolics" as an umbrella term for both total phenols and condensed tannins). Gorilla diet at Lopé overlaps greatly with that of sympatric, frugivorous, primates, and resembles more closely that of chimpanzees than it does gorilla diet studied elsewhere in Africa.

  16. Simulation of land use change and effect on potential deforestation using Markov Chain - Cellular Automata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mujiono, Indra, T. L.; Harmantyo, D.; Rukmana, I. P.; Nadia, Z.

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to simulate land use change in 1996-2016 and its prediction in 2035 as well as its potential to deforestation. Both of these purposes were obtained through modeling analysis using Markov Chain Cellular Automata. This modeling method was considered important for understanding the causes and impacts. Based on the analysis, the land use change between 1996 to 2007 has caused forest loss (the region and non-region) covering an area of 62,012 ha. While in the period of 2007 to 2016, the change has lead to the east side of the slope grade of 0-15 percent and an altitude between 500-1000 meters above sea level. In this period, plantation area has increased by 50,822 ha, while the forest area has reduced from 80,038 ha. In a period of 20 years, North Bengkulu Regency has lost the forest area of 80,038 ha. The amount of intervention against forest suggested the potential for deforestation in this area. Simulation of land use change in 2035 did not indicate significant deforestation due to the limited land on physical factors such as slope and elevation. However, it should be noted that, in 2035, the area of conservation forest was reduced by 16,793 ha (29 %), while the areas of protected and production forest were reduced by 4,933 ha (19 %) and 2,114 ha (3 %), respectively. Land use change is a serious threat of deforestation, especially in forest areas in North Bengkulu Regency, where any decline in forest area means the addition of plantation area.

  17. A solar reserve methodology for renewable energy integration studies based on sub-hourly variability analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez, Eduardo; Brinkman, Gregory; Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lew, Debra

    2012-07-01

    Increasing penetration of wind and solar energy are raising concerns among electric system operators because of the variability and uncertainty associated with the power sources. Previous work focused on the quantification of reserves for systems with wind power. This paper presents a new methodology that allows the determination of necessary reserves for high penetrations of photovoltaic power and compares it to the wind-based methodology. The solar reserve methodology was applied to Phase 2 of the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study. A summary of the results is included. (orig.)

  18. Guidance Document - Provision of Outage Reserve Capacity for Molybdenum-99 Irradiation Services: Methodology and Economic Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peykov, Pavel; Cameron, Ron; Westmacott, Chad

    2013-01-01

    In June 2011, the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency's (NEA) High-level Group on the Security of Supply of Medical Radioisotopes (HLG-MR) released its policy approach for ensuring a long-term secure supply of molybdenum-99 ( 99 Mo) and its decay product technetium-99m (' 99m Tc). This policy approach was developed after two years of extensive examination and analysis of the challenges facing the supply chain, and the provision of a reliable, secure supply of these important medical isotopes. The full policy approach can be found in the OECD/NEA report, The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes: The Path to Reliability (NEA, 2011). One of the key principles in the policy approach relates to the provision of outage reserve capacity (ORC) in the 99 Mo/' 99m Tc supply chain, as defined on page 7: 'Principle 2: Reserve capacity should be sourced and paid for by the supply chain. A common approach should be used to determine the amount of reserve capacity required'. This Principle follows the findings of the OECD/NEA report, The Supply of Medical Radioisotopes: An Economic Study of the Molybdenum-99 Supply Chain (NEA, 2010), which clearly demonstrated the need for excess 99 Mo production capacity, relative to demand, as some reactors may have to be shutdown unexpectedly or for extended periods. The Study also demonstrated that the pricing structure from reactors for 99 Mo irradiation services prior to the 2009-10 supply shortage was not economically sustainable, including the pricing of ORC, with the cost being subsidised by host nations. These nations have indicated a move away from subsidising production, which often benefits foreign nations or foreign companies, and therefore pricing for irradiation services must recover the full cost of production to ensure economic sustainability and a long-term secure supply. Appropriate pricing would also encourage more efficient use of the product, reducing inefficient use of 99 Mo/' 99m Tc would reduce excess production and the associated

  19. Trade, tropical deforestation and policy interventions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbier, E.B.; Rauscher, M.

    1992-01-01

    This paper examines several aspects of the links between the trade in tropical timber and deforestation from the perspective of an exporting country. The various versions of the model developed here have highlighted a number of important features of this linkage. First, if the producer country values its tropical forest solely as a source of timber export earnings then it will aim for a smaller forest stock in the long run than if it also considers the other values provided by the forest. Second, if importing nations want the exporting countries to conserve more of their forests, trade interventions appear to be second-best way of achieving this result. Third, increased market power by a large country exporter or group of exporters may actually lead to greater forest conservation. Finally, the existence of a foreign capital market may further ensure that the tropical timber country may conserve its forest stock in the long run. Several recent reviews of global forest sector policies have discussed implications similar to those analyzed theoretically in our model. Generally, the same conclusions have been reached. However, what is of increasing concern is that domestic market and policy failures within tropical forest countries continue to distort the incentives for more sustainable management of timber production and efficient development of processing capacity, while at the same time the international community increasingly contemplates the use of bans, tariffs and other trade measures to discourage 'unsustainable' tropical timber exploitation. As our paper has attempted to show, sometimes the more simple solutions lead neither to a straightforward, nor to the desired, results. 18 refs, 1 fig

  20. Cost Analysis of Maintenance Programs for Pre-Positioned War Reserve Material Stock (PWRMS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Cyr, Phillip

    2002-01-01

    ...) for that maintenance. The objective is to provide DoD, the Navy, and the Civil Engineer Corps a guideline and possible benchmark for maintenance costs required to maintain the CESE War Reserves in a Cl condition of readiness...

  1. War Reserve Analysis and Secondary Item Procureability Assessment of the AMCOM Supported Weapon Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Maddux, Gary

    2000-01-01

    .... IOD evaluates the impacts of nonavailability of secondary items on the life cycle supportability of AMCOM weapon systems and evaluates the producibility of secondary items for war reserve requirements...

  2. Social Network Analysis of the Caste-Based Reservation System in India

    OpenAIRE

    Iyengar, S. R. S.; Parasuram, Aishwarya; Saini, Jaspal Singh

    2015-01-01

    It has been argued that the reservation system in India, which has existed since the time of Indian Independence (1947), has caused more havoc and degradation than progress. This being a popular public opinion, these notions have not been based on any rigorous scientific study or research. In this paper, we revisit the cultural divide among the Indian population from a purely social networks based approach. We study the reservation system in detail, starting from its past and observing its ef...

  3. Development of deforestation and land cover database for Bhutan (1930-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, C Sudhakar; Satish, K V; Jha, C S; Diwakar, P G; Murthy, Y V N Krishna; Dadhwal, V K

    2016-12-01

    Bhutan is a mountainous country located in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. This study has quantified the total area under land cover types, estimated the rate of forest cover change, analyzed the changes across forest types, and modeled forest cover change hotpots in Bhutan. The topographical maps and satellite remote sensing images were analyzed to get the spatial patterns of forest and associated land cover changes over the past eight decades (1930-1977-1987-1995-2005-2014). Forest is the largest land cover in Bhutan and constitutes 68.3% of the total geographical area in 2014. Subtropical broad leaved hill forest is predominant type occupies 34.1% of forest area in Bhutan, followed by montane dry temperate (20.9%), montane wet temperate (18.9%), Himalayan moist temperate (10%), and tropical moist sal (8.1%) in 2014. The major forest cover loss is observed in subtropical broad leaved hill forest (64.5 km 2 ) and moist sal forest (9.9 km 2 ) from 1977 to 2014. The deforested areas have mainly been converted into agriculture and contributed for 60.9% of forest loss from 1930 to 2014. In spite of major decline of forest cover in time interval of 1930-1977, there is no net rate of deforestation is recorded in Bhutan since 1995. Forest cover change analysis has been carried out to evaluate the conservation effectiveness in "Protected Areas" of Bhutan. Hotspots that have undergone high transformation in forest cover for afforestation and deforestation were highlighted in the study for conservation prioritisation. Forest conservation policies in Bhutan are highly effective in controlling deforestation as compared to neighboring Asian countries and such service would help in mitigating climate change.

  4. Assessment and monitoring of deforestation and forest fragmentation in South Asia since the 1930s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudhakar Reddy, C.; Saranya, K. R. L.; Vazeed Pasha, S.; Satish, K. V.; Jha, C. S.; Diwakar, P. G.; Dadhwal, V. K.; Rao, P. V. N.; Krishna Murthy, Y. V. N.

    2018-02-01

    The present study, first of its kind, has analyzed the land cover and investigated the spatial patterns of deforestation and forest fragmentation in South Asian region since the 1930's. This region comprises of eight countries: India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka and Maldives. In South Asia, agricultural land is predominant constituting 43% of the total geographical area followed by barren land (19.99%) and forests (14.72%). The long-term change analysis using the classified maps of 1930 and 2014 indicated a loss of 29.62% of the forest cover. Higher annual net deforestation rates were observed in the period from 1930-1975 (0.68%) followed by 1975-1985 (0.23%), 1985-1995 (0.12%), 1995-2005 (0.06%) and 2005-2014 (0.04%) for the region. Forest fragmentation had significant spatio-temporal variation across the South Asian countries. In 1930, 88.91% of the South Asian forest was classified as large core forest, 8.18% as edge forest and 1.18% as perforated forest. The large core forest category has decreased significantly in area over last eight decades. The results of the present study are expected to serve as a reference for the evaluation of globally agreed Aichi biodiversity target 5 for South Asian countries. This study will be a valuable basis for developing management strategies and restoration programs as it tracks the spatial changes in deforestation and forest fragmentation.

  5. Influence of Deforestation on Infiltration and Erosion in the Brazilian Caatinga

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leite, P. A.; Souza, E.; Gomes, R. J.; Jacques, Y.; Cantalice, J. R. B.; Wilcox, B. P.

    2015-12-01

    Population growth and changes in land use are leading to increasing rates of deforestation and land degradation in the Brazilian Caatinga—a semiarid tropical forest. The influence of deforestation and subsequent recovery on soil hydrological properties and erosion are poorly understood. To investigate the influence of forest regeneration stage on soil hydrological processes, we conducted small plot rainfall simulation experiments on (1) a degraded pasture, recently abandoned; (2) an abandoned pasture left for natural recovery in the past seven years; (3) a 40 year old regenerating forestland; and (4) an old-growth forestland. In addition, we determined infiltration rates using single rings (following the Beerkan Method) and in the laboratory we applied the constant head method to soil core samples. Hydraulic parameters will be obtained using the BEST method with SciLab software and statistical analysis of the data will be carried in R. We found that infiltration rates were highest and erosion the lowest in the old-growth forest. Surprisingly, differences in both infiltration and erosion rates were quite small in the other sites. These results suggest that significant time is required following deforestation for recovery of soil hydrological properties.

  6. Deforestation in Decentralised Indonesia: What's Law Got to Do with it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luke Lazarus Arnold

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available A growing number of studies point to significant changes in the dynamics of deforestation in Indonesia since the introduction of decentralised governance in 2001. This essay argues that law plays an important and underestimated role in facilitating these new dynamics. This role is not limited to mere implementation failures; many of the ways in which Indonesian law makes deforestation possible can be traced back to the content of the laws themselves. In order to demonstrate this point, the essay first examines the context in which Indonesia's forestry and decentralisation laws were formulated and the salient provisions of these laws. This is followed by a discussion of the dynamics of deforestation since decentralisation and an analysis of five key ways in which law is partly responsible for the current situation: a flawed division of authority between the Central Government and the regions'; inconsistent, ambiguous and 'hollow' legislation; legislatively entrenched departmentalism; the marginalisation of forest communities; and a lack of legislative support for public participation, public interest litigation and other processes to promote sustainable forest management.

  7. Implementation of avoided deforestation in a post-2012 climate regime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soederblom, Johan

    2009-01-15

    The awareness of the global warming has increased the last few years and a majority of the world's scientists believes that anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide are the strongest contributing cause. Greenhouse gas emissions due to clearing of tropical rain forest has so far been given little attention, even though deforestation is responsible for 20-25 percent of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and is the second largest sector of emissions after energy production. Forest ecosystems contain large amounts of carbon, and in total there is more carbon stored in forests on earth than what is held in form of carbon dioxide in earth's atmosphere. During the latest years the rate of deforestation has been about 13 million hectares annually, which is calculated to release almost 6 Gton of carbon dioxide each year. The underlying causes of deforestation are normally depending on present as well as historical circumstances and the drivers of deforestation can vary substantially between different countries. This study describes the proceedings of deforestation and discusses the carbon balance for possible scenarios when a forest has been cleared. The amount of emissions can vary substantially depending on the land use after deforestation and the usage of the harvested biomass. The carbon balance in soil is also of importance for the carbon emissions. Uncertainties regarding carbon emissions from soil are however large and is therefore often neglected in estimations of carbon emissions due to deforestation, the figures mentioned above included. Reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide through REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing countries) is considered to be cost effective. In this study a Marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve is created to illustrate how the cost of REDD will increase with time. A selection of reports that estimate the total cost of REDD is also reviewed. These estimates are all more or less uncertain and in

  8. A POLICY MIX TO PREVENT A NON-COMMONS TRAGEDY FOR COLLECTIVE FOREST RESERVES IN AGRARIAN SETTLEMENTS IN NORTHWEST MATO GROSSO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.B. Davenport

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Agrarian reform settlements have recently been identified as a major contributor to ongoing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Collective forest reserves were established in some settlements to thwart forest loss, but settlers usually do not recognize forest commons, opting instead for continued private accumulation through forest clearing, or a "non-commons" tragedy. Pathways toward ensuring the viability of common-pool management in settlements remain unclear. Our case study focused on two similarly sized settlements in neighboring municipalities in Northwest Mato Grosso, Brazil, each with formally designated collective forest areas. In one, deforestation shifted into the collective reserve and intensified; in the other, deforestation stabilized and the collective reserve was protected. In the latter, settlers understood their collective forest reserve as a commonly held asset, with two commercially viable settlement cooperatives involved in Brazil nut (Bertholletia excelsa extractivism and added value processing. We analyze differences between the two settlements using Elinor Ostrom's framework for analysis of socio-ecological systems, and identify the locally applied policy mix ensuring the viability of a forest commons. The study concludes that "top-down" efforts to institutionalize collective governance over remaining forests will likely fail in most settlements, without a focus on alternative livelihood opportunities synergetic with forest tenure.

  9. Carbon emissions risk map from deforestation in the tropical Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ometto, J.; Soler, L. S.; Assis, T. D.; Oliveira, P. V.; Aguiar, A. P.

    2011-12-01

    Assis, Pedro Valle This work aims to estimate the carbon emissions from tropical deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon associated to the risk assessment of future land use change. The emissions are estimated by incorporating temporal deforestation dynamics, accounting for the biophysical and socioeconomic heterogeneity in the region, as well secondary forest growth dynamic in abandoned areas. The land cover change model that supported the risk assessment of deforestation, was run based on linear regressions. This method takes into account spatial heterogeneity of deforestation as the spatial variables adopted to fit the final regression model comprise: environmental aspects, economic attractiveness, accessibility and land tenure structure. After fitting a suitable regression models for each land cover category, the potential of each cell to be deforested (25x25km and 5x5 km of resolution) in the near future was used to calculate the risk assessment of land cover change. The carbon emissions model combines high-resolution new forest clear-cut mapping and four alternative sources of spatial information on biomass distribution for different vegetation types. The risk assessment map of CO2 emissions, was obtained by crossing the simulation results of the historical land cover changes to a map of aboveground biomass contained in the remaining forest. This final map represents the risk of CO2 emissions at 25x25km and 5x5 km until 2020, under a scenario of carbon emission reduction target.

  10. Value of ovarian reserve testing before IVF: a clinical decision analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mol, Ben W.; Verhagen, Tamara E. M.; Hendriks, Dave J.; Collins, John A.; Coomarasamy, Arri; Opmeer, Brent C.; Broekmans, Frank J.

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: To assess the value of testing for ovarian reserve prior to a first cycle IVF incorporating patient and doctor valuation of mismatches between test results and treatment outcome. METHODS: A decision model was developed for couples who were considering participation in an IVF programme.

  11. A Network Flow-based Analysis of Cognitive Reserve in Normal Ageing and Alzheimer's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wook Yoo, Sang; Han, Cheol E; Shin, Joseph S; Won Seo, Sang; Na, Duk L; Kaiser, Marcus; Jeong, Yong; Seong, Joon-Kyung

    2015-05-20

    Cognitive reserve is the ability to sustain cognitive function even with a certain amount of brain damages. Here we investigate the neural compensation mechanism of cognitive reserve from the perspective of structural brain connectivity. Our goal was to show that normal people with high education levels (i.e., cognitive reserve) maintain abundant pathways connecting any two brain regions, providing better compensation or resilience after brain damage. Accordingly, patients with high education levels show more deterioration in structural brain connectivity than those with low education levels before symptoms of Alzheimer's disease (AD) become apparent. To test this hypothesis, we use network flow measuring the number of alternative paths between two brain regions in the brain network. The experimental results show that for normal aging, education strengthens network reliability, as measured through flow values, in a subnetwork centered at the supramarginal gyrus. For AD, a subnetwork centered at the left middle frontal gyrus shows a negative correlation between flow and education, which implies more collapse in structural brain connectivity for highly educated patients. We conclude that cognitive reserve may come from the ability of network reorganization to secure the information flow within the brain network, therefore making it more resistant to disease progress.

  12. An Analysis of Factors Affecting Affiliation in the Marine Corps Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    AR Active Reserve ASL Active Status List CC Continuance Commitment DODI Department of Defense Instruction DON Department of the Navy FFM ...turnover (Mobley, Griffeth, Hand, & Meglino, 1979). Other research on personality constructs use the five factor model ( FFM ) as a basis...Conscientiousness and emotional stability are two personality dimensions of the FFM , which are negatively correlated and useful predictors of voluntary turnover

  13. MAKING HOTEL RESERVATIONS ONLINE: A CONTENT ANALYSIS OF U.S. TRAVELERS’ COMMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristian MOROSAN

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available As a substantial portion of online room reservations continues to be made via intermediary travel Web sites, the American hotel companies deploy large amounts of resources to attract travelers to their Web sites through lowest guaranteed rates, direct connections with agencies and corporate clients, and industry partnerships. This article reports the results of a study that investigated travelers’ comments about their reservation experiences via hotel-owned and intermediary Web sites. The study revealed that the travelers had more favorable views of intermediary Web sites rather than hotel-owned Web sites. Travelers’ comments addressed the need for lowest room rates online, easy to use reservation tools, comparisons of room rates across properties within a destination, and security of online transactions. Hotel brand and travelers’ experience with online reservations have not been found to play a substantial role in travelers’ Web site preferences.

  14. An analysis of illegal mining on the Offin shelterbelt forest reserve, Ghana: Implications on community livelihood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Boadi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Mining in tropical countries contributes significantly to the global minerals supplies but unregulated mining activities in reserved forests is associated with destruction, loss of habitats and loss of biodiversity. This study determined the area of the Offin shelterbelt forest reserve, Ghana, degraded through illegal mining (galamsey and the impacts on the livelihoods of fringe communities. Thirty-two (32 coordinates were recorded around the peripheries of disturbed site in the reserve using hand-held Global Positioning System and were then imported into a geodatabase in ArcGIS which was used to estimate the area degraded. Data was obtained from 60 purposively sampled respondents from two communities fringing the reserve and 10 key informant interviews. Increased income (13%, employment opportunities (6.7% and increased market activities (2% were some benefits of the illegal mining activities identified by the respondents. Eight respondents associated their employment with of the advent of illegal mining activities out which 6 (70% were engaged directly in mining activities, while 2 (30% were into trading. The miners earned cash income range of US $ 2.9–22.9 daily. Within 5 years, illegal mining had degraded 2.5 km2 (4.4% of the total area of the reserve and the destruction of cocoa farms and water sources (31. Farming among respondents reduced from 90% to 76% after illegal mining. The relatively high cost (US$ 6424.1 involved in flushing out and the subsequent return of such miners poses a threat to sustainable forest management and requires a more holistic approach in tackling such a problem.

  15. Performance Analysis of the United States Marine Corps War Reserve Materiel Program Process Flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    55 2. Cost /Benefit Analysis of Maintaining Inventory .......................55 B. TRANSPORTATION...REVIEW A. DOD LOGISTICS OVERVIEW Acquiring and supplying materiel to deployed forces is a complicated process. While we conducted our analysis on... Cost /Benefit Analysis of Maintaining Inventory Additionally, should certain item types prove to be more prone to delays or incur proportionally

  16. Northern Cheyenne Reservation Coal Bed Natural Resource Assessment and Analysis of Produced Water Disposal Options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaochang Wo; David A. Lopez; Jason Whiteman Sr.; Bruce A. Reynolds

    2004-07-01

    Coalbed methane (CBM) development in the Powder River Basin (PRB) is currently one of the most active gas plays in the United States. Monthly production in 2002 reached about 26 BCF in the Wyoming portion of the basin. Coalbed methane reserves for the Wyoming portion of the basin are approximately 25 trillion cubic feet (TCF). Although coal beds in the Powder River Basin extend well into Montana, including the area of the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, the only CBM development in Montana is the CX Field, operated by the Fidelity Exploration, near the Wyoming border. The Northern Cheyenne Reservation is located on the northwest flank of the PRB in Montana with a total land of 445,000 acres. The Reservation consists of five districts, Lame Deer, Busby, Ashland, Birney, and Muddy Cluster and has a population of 4,470 according to the 2000 Census. The CBM resource represents a significant potential asset to the Northern Cheyenne Indian Tribe. Methane gas in coal beds is trapped by hydrodynamic pressure. Because the production of CBM involves the dewatering of coalbed to allow the release of methane gas from the coal matrix, the relatively large volume of the co-produced water and its potential environmental impacts are the primary concerns for the Tribe. Presented in this report is a study conducted by the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL) and the Montana Bureau of Mines and Geology (MBMG) in partnership with the Northern Cheyenne Tribe to assess the Tribe’s CBM resources and evaluate applicable water handling options. The project was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) through the Native American Initiative of the National Petroleum Technology Office, under contract DEAC07- 99ID13727. Matching funds were granted by the MBMG in supporting the work of geologic study and mapping conducted at MBMG.

  17. An empirical analysis of price expectations formation: Evidence from the crude oil reserves acquisitions market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vielhaber, L.M.

    1991-01-01

    Reasons for the recent scant empirical attention to price expectations theory are twofold. First, except for futures markets and the occasional expectations survey, price expectations are rarely documented. Second, results of empirical tests of rational expectations are fundamentally flawed by the subjective input of the researcher. Subjectivity taints the results of the test, first, in the form of model specification and, second, in the form of the identification of the relevant information set. This study addresses each of these shortcomings. First, crude oil price expectations are recovered in the market for reserves by using a standard engineering model commonly used in reserves evaluation. Second, the crude oil futures market is used to estimate an index of information. This index circumvents the need to subjectively identify the elements of the information set, removing a key source of subjective input. The results show that agents involved in the crude oil reserves acquisitions market form expectations of futures prices in a way that does not conform with the adaptive expectations model

  18. Heterogeneity of experts’ opinion regarding opportunities and challenges of tackling deforestation in the tropics: a Q methodology application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijnik, M.; Nijnik, A.; Bergsma, E.; Matthews, R.

    2014-01-01

    Making the concept of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) ready to be a mechanism to combat tropical deforestation and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by compensating developing countries for income foregone in reducing their rates of deforestation, requires

  19. Integrating remotely sensed fires for predicting deforestation for REDD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenteras, Dolors; Gibbes, Cerian; Anaya, Jesús A; Dávalos, Liliana M

    2017-06-01

    Fire is an important tool in tropical forest management, as it alters forest composition, structure, and the carbon budget. The United Nations program on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) aims to sustainably manage forests, as well as to conserve and enhance their carbon stocks. Despite the crucial role of fire management, decision-making on REDD+ interventions fails to systematically include fires. Here, we address this critical knowledge gap in two ways. First, we review REDD+ projects and programs to assess the inclusion of fires in monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems. Second, we model the relationship between fire and forest for a pilot site in Colombia using near-real-time (NRT) fire monitoring data derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The literature review revealed fire remains to be incorporated as a key component of MRV systems. Spatially explicit modeling of land use change showed the probability of deforestation declined sharply with increasing distance to the nearest fire the preceding year (multi-year model area under the curve [AUC] 0.82). Deforestation predictions based on the model performed better than the official REDD early-warning system. The model AUC for 2013 and 2014 was 0.81, compared to 0.52 for the early-warning system in 2013 and 0.68 in 2014. This demonstrates NRT fire monitoring is a powerful tool to predict sites of forest deforestation. Applying new, publicly available, and open-access NRT fire data should be an essential element of early-warning systems to detect and prevent deforestation. Our results provide tools for improving both the current MRV systems, and the deforestation early-warning system in Colombia. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  20. CHANGES IN FOREST COVERAGE IN THE NATURAL RESERVE AGUA SELVA, MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camerino Alejandro Montiel

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of ecotourism on the Natural Reserve Agua Selva, Mexico, was assessed. Changes of land use in the forest were evaluated.  An analysis of some socio-economic and cultural changes in the community since ecotourism was introduced was carried out. The perception of villagers towards ecotourism is also presented. The analysis was made with satellite images landsat type (sensor MSS and TM obtained in 1976 and 2000. Cartography and farm plots were also used for the analysis of land use changes. Socio-economic changes were analyzed based on questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. The introduction of ecotourism in the area of study had both positive and negative effects. Although ecotourism did not reverse the deforestation processes, the general deforestation rate was 0.49%. This is smaller to reports in literature for other zones in Tabasco with similar characteristics in the same period of time.  It was found that there was a positive change of Villager’s attitudes towards ecotourism in the last 15 years. This is mainly because this activity is a source of income and has become progressively more important compared to other rural economic activities. It was found that the community participation is scarce and thus has caused problems in the management of specific projects. The results of this research suggest that the success of ecotourism in Agua Selva depends on the integration of ecotourism with the other agricultural and social programs implemented in the area. Implementing agricultural development programs not linked to ecotourism activities can lead to deforestation which is the reserve’s main attraction.

  1. CMS: Estimated Deforested Area Biomass, Tropical America, Africa, and Asia, 2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides estimates of pre-deforestation aboveground live woody biomass (AGLB) at 30-m resolution for deforested areas of tropical America, tropical...

  2. LBA-ECO ND-01 Watershed Deforestation from Landsat TM Series, Rondonia, Brazil: 1999

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides estimates of watershed deforestation, as a proportion of the total area of watersheds, in Rondonia, Brazil for 1999. Deforestation maps were...

  3. LBA-ECO ND-01 Watershed Deforestation from Landsat TM Series, Rondonia, Brazil: 1999

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides estimates of watershed deforestation, as a proportion of the total area of watersheds, in Rondonia, Brazil for 1999. Deforestation...

  4. Estimating the opportunity costs of reducing carbon dioxide emissions via avoided deforestation, using integrated assessment modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overmars, K.P.; Stehfest, E.; Tabeau, A.A.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Beltran, A.M.; Kram, T.

    2014-01-01

    Estimates show that, in recent years, deforestation and forest degradation accounted for about 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) is suggested to provide substantial emission

  5. Extra-Property Legal Reserve in the Cerrado Biome: A preliminary Analysis within the Watershed Context

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fábio Carneiro Lobo

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a normalized remaining vegetation index (NRVI based on land use data, which is evaluated according to three distinct minimum watershed sizes (10,000, 50,000 and 200,000 ha , whose limits were derived via SRTM data (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. The NRVI varies from -1 (i. e. entirely converted watersheds to 1 (no conversion at all, and allows the association of land use data to numerical variables, such as social development indices. High NRVI values were found in the Northeastern watersheds of Goias State , while negative NRVI values predominated in the Southeastern and Southern portions of the study area. In compliance to the Brazilian Forest Code (i. e. permanent preservation areas and legal reserve, we estimated an NRVI value of -0.382, which is found in only 50,13% of the 10,000 ha watersheds. Although preliminary, our results suggest that NRVI can effectively serve the purposes of a transferable development rights approach (TDR regarding legal reserves in the State of Goias and Federal District.

  6. Analysis of the Effect of a Marine Energy Farm to Protect a Biosphere Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rusu Eugen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sacalin Peninsula in the Black Sea is a new land located south of the Saint George branch of the Danube. Since 1938 this area became a biosphere reserve since many rare species of animals and plants are to be found there. The generation of this new peninsula is due to the sedimentary process induced by the Danube River outflow and it was started more than 150 years ago. In the winter of 2013 this environment was seriously affected by some very strong storms putting in real danger this ecosystem. From this perspective, the objective of the present work is to evaluate the protection that might be offered to this area by a marine energy farm that would be deployed in front of the peninsula. In order to assess the coastal protection offered by the proposed solution, simulations with the SWAN (Simulating Waves Nearshore wave model have been performed for the most relevant storm patterns. The results show that a marine energy farm can provide a real sheltering effect to the ecological reserve. Such approach seems to be also economically viable since this coastal environment represents a real hot spot in the Black Sea from the point of view of marine energy resources.

  7. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR Interferometry for Assessing Wenchuan Earthquake (2008 Deforestation in the Sichuan Giant Panda Site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fulong Chen

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Synthetic aperture radar (SAR has been an unparalleled tool in cloudy and rainy regions as it allows observations throughout the year because of its all-weather, all-day operation capability. In this paper, the influence of Wenchuan Earthquake on the Sichuan Giant Panda habitats was evaluated for the first time using SAR interferometry and combining data from C-band Envisat ASAR and L-band ALOS PALSAR data. Coherence analysis based on the zero-point shifting indicated that the deforestation process was significant, particularly in habitats along the Min River approaching the epicenter after the natural disaster, and as interpreted by the vegetation deterioration from landslides, avalanches and debris flows. Experiments demonstrated that C-band Envisat ASAR data were sensitive to vegetation, resulting in an underestimation of deforestation; in contrast, L-band PALSAR data were capable of evaluating the deforestation process owing to a better penetration and the significant coherence gain on damaged forest areas. The percentage of damaged forest estimated by PALSAR decreased from 20.66% to 17.34% during 2009–2010, implying an approximate 3% recovery rate of forests in the earthquake impacted areas. This study proves that long-wavelength SAR interferometry is promising for rapid assessment of disaster-induced deforestation, particularly in regions where the optical acquisition is constrained.

  8. Analysis of a commitment period reserve at national and global levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Missfeldt, F.; Haites, E.

    2002-01-01

    of (a) X% of five times the Party's most recently reviewed emissions inventory; and (b) Y% of the Party's initial assigned amount. The agreement reached at the resumed sixth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP) sets X = 100% and Y = 90%. This paper analyses different specifications (values...... of X and Y) of the commitment period reserve in terms of potential non-compliance due to overselling and restricted sales of quota surplus to compliance needs of the seller. To eliminate potential non-compliance due to overselling, Y must be equal to 100% and X must be greater than 105%. Specifications...... that limit potential non-compliance due to overselling, may temporarily restrict sales of quota surplus to the compliance of some countries. The Annex II Parties are less likely to face restrictions on sales of surplus quota than other Annex B countries. The risk of temporarily restricted sales is reduced...

  9. Species distribution of kobs (Kobus kob) in the Shai Hills Resource Reserve: an exploratory analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antwi, Raymond Agyepong; Owusu, Erasmus Henaku; Attuquayefio, Daniel Korley

    2018-02-01

    The well-being of a species fundamentally rests on understanding its biology, home range, and distribution. The highly seasonal distribution of kobs poses conservation and management difficulties, particularly because of the capricious nature of the ever-changing ecological and vegetation dynamics of the ecosystem. Assessing the distribution of kobs and their associated vegetation provides insight into the vulnerability and conservation status of the species. Species distribution and habitat suitability maps were developed and created respectively for the management of kobs in the Shai Hills Resource Reserve. Kob presence data collected was analyzed using the spatial analyst and Hawth's tool in the ArcGIS software where the gradients of kob distribution within the protected area landscape were plotted and mapped. Seven environmental variables including location, land cover/use, slope/elevation, nearness to dams and rivers, temperature, and rainfall were considered to have effect on kob distribution pattern and as such used in the development of species distribution and habitat suitability maps. The results indicated that kobs in the Shai Hills Resource Reserve (SHRR) assume a clumped or contagious distribution pattern where individual kobs are aggregated in patches. Rainfall, temperature, nearness to dams and rivers, slope/elevation, and land cover/use had influence in kob distribution. Of all the cataloged habitats, 86, 13, and 1% were moderately suitable, suitable, and unsuitable, respectively. Long-term survival of species depends on adequately large areas of suitable habitats and opportunities for home range activities between such areas. As such, it is recommended that suitable habitats for kobs be dedicated and designated as conservation areas, especially areas along the western boundary.

  10. Desirable Strategic Petroleum Reserves policies in response to supply uncertainty: A stochastic analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai, Yang; Zhou, Peng; Tian, Lixin; Meng, Fanyi

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A stochastic model is proposed to study Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) policy. • The model aims to find desirable SPR size, acquisition, drawdown and refilling policy. • The impact of SPR policy and supply disruption on oil price has been examined. - Abstract: The paper proposes a survey on three issues related to Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) policy. Firstly, what are the optimal SPR acquisition, drawdown and refilling policy in response to various market risks? Secondly, how SPR policy or actions will affect the market factors, i.e. oil demand or price. Thirdly, in what extend a disruption may induce price shock. For the purpose, the study proposed a Markov Decision Process model (SPR-MDP). In the model, oil supply, disruption size and duration are considered to be highly stochastic. Oil price is determined by market fundamentals exclusively. According to the empirical study, we come to some interesting conclusions. Firstly, oil price and disruption risk show different ways in influencing the desirable SPR size. It is found that the SPR size increases with the decrease of oil price while increase of disruption risk. Secondly, SPR acquisition may increase oil price slightly by influencing the basic fundamentals. In given case, we find acquisition of 7 million barrels per month increase the price by 2.6%. But the influence weakens with decrease of acquisition size. Thirdly, disruption duration shows significant impact on SPR drawdown policy. In a two-month disruption case, it is found that 51% of SPR should be released in the first month. Another 40% is released in the following month. The other 9% SPR is left for forthcoming disruptions. Meanwhile, SPR drawdown shows high efficient in damping oil price in the disruption. In given case, after drawdown of SPR, the oil prices only increases by 0.7% in the second month though continue disruption.

  11. Export-oriented deforestation in Mato Grosso: harbinger or exception for other tropical forests?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    DeFries, R.; Herold, M.; Verchot, L.; Macedo, M.N.; Shimabukuro, Y.

    2013-01-01

    The Brazilian state of Mato Grosso was a global deforestation hotspot in the early 2000s. Deforested land is used predominantly to produce meat for distal consumption either through cattle ranching or soya bean for livestock feed. Deforestation declined dramatically in the latter part of the decade

  12. Modeling fire-driven deforestation potential in Amazonia under current and projected climate conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Page, Y.; van der Werf, G.R.; Morton, D.C.; Pereira, J.M.C.

    2010-01-01

    Fire is a widely used tool to prepare deforested areas for agricultural use in Amazonia. Deforestation is currently concentrated in seasonal forest types along the arc of deforestation, where dry-season conditions facilitate burning of clear-felled vegetation. Interior Amazon forests, however, are

  13. The role of pasture and soybean in deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barona, Elizabeth; Ramankutty, Navin; Coomes, Oliver T; Hyman, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    The dynamics of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon are complex. A growing debate considers the extent to which deforestation is a result of the expansion of the Brazilian soy industry. Most recent analyses suggest that deforestation is driven by the expansion of cattle ranching, rather than soy. Soy seems to be replacing previously deforested land and/or land previously under pasture. In this study, we use municipality-level statistics on agricultural and deforested areas across the Legal Amazon from 2000 to 2006 to examine the spatial patterns and statistical relationships between deforestation and changes in pasture and soybean areas. Our results support previous studies that showed that deforestation is predominantly a result of pasture expansion. However, we also find support for the hypothesis that an increase of soy in Mato Grosso has displaced pasture further north, leading to deforestation elsewhere. Although not conclusive, our findings suggest that the debate surrounding the drivers of Amazon deforestation is not over, and that indirect causal links between soy and deforestation may exist that need further exploration. Future research should examine more closely how interlinkages between land area, prices, and policies influence the relationship between soy and deforestation, in order to make a conclusive case for 'displacement deforestation'.

  14. Baselines For Land-Use Change In The Tropics: Application ToAvoided Deforestation Projects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Sandra; Hall, Myrna; Andrasko, Ken; Ruiz, Fernando; Marzoli, Walter; Guerrero, Gabriela; Masera, Omar; Dushku, Aaron; Dejong,Ben; Cornell, Joseph

    2007-06-01

    Although forest conservation activities particularly in thetropics offer significant potential for mitigating carbon emissions,these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena causedby the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle,particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has twomain components: the projected land-use change and the correspondingcarbon stocks in the applicable pools such as vegetation, detritus,products and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult toaddress analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparingthree models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of pasttrends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth tomore complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicitmodels of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomicfactors. The three models of the latter category used in the analysis atregional scale are The Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use andCarbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD)model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropicalregions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions,population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) SantaCruz State, Bolivia; (3) Parana State in Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico;(5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacan, Mexico. A comparison of all modeloutputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quitedifferent deforestation baseline. In general, the simplest FAC model,applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highestamount of forest loss (four out of six) and the LUCS model the leastamount of loss (four out of five). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, wefound that readily observable physical and biological factors as well asdistance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as importantas either sociological/demographic or economic

  15. Clearing the way for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skutsch, M.; Bird, N.; Trines, E.; Dutschke, M.; Frumhoff, P.; Jong, B.H.J. de; Laake, P. van; Masera, O.; Murdiyarso, D.

    2007-01-01

    Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation account for about 25% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but cannot be credited under current climate change agreements. In the discussions around the architecture of the post-2012 climate regime, the possibility of including credits for reduced emissions from deforestation arises. The paper reviews two approaches for this, compensated reductions (CR) as proposed by Santilli et al. and the Joint Research Centre proposal that combine voluntary commitments by non-Annex I countries to reduce emissions from deforestation with carbon market financing. Both approaches have the clear advantages of simplicity and the possibility of fitting to an evolving greenhouse gas emission reduction regime. The authors consider the strengths and limitations of each proposal and build upon them to address several implementation challenges and options for improvement. Given the urgency of avoiding dangerous climate change, the timely development of technically sound, politically acceptable, cost-effective and practicable measures to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is essential. These two approaches take us a step closer to this goal, but they need to be refined rapidly to enable this goal to be realised

  16. Climate regulation of fire emissions and deforestation in equatorial Asia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Werf, G. R.; Dempewolf, J.; Trigg, S. N.; Randerson, J. T.; Kasibhatla, P. S.; Giglio, L.; Murdiyarso, D.; Peters, W.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.; Dolman, A. J.; Defries, R. S.

    2008-01-01

    Drainage of peatlands and deforestation have led to large-scale fires in equatorial Asia, affecting regional air quality and global concentrations of greenhouse gases. Here we used several sources of satellite data with biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling to better understand and constrain fire

  17. Clearing the way for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skutsch, M. [Department of Technology and Sustainable Development, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands); Bird, N. [Joanneum Research, Elizabethstrasse 5/1, A-8010 Graz (Austria); Trines, E. [Gramserweg 2, 3711 AW Austerlitz (Netherlands); Dutschke, M. [Biocarbon, Badstrasse 41, 77652 Offenburg (Germany); Frumhoff, P. [Union of Concerned Scientists, 2 Brattle Square, Cambridge, MA 02238-9105 (United States); De Jong, B.H.J. [El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, Unidad Villahermosa, Carr. Vhsa-Reforma Km. 15.5, C.P. 86280, Ra Guineo 2da Secc, Villahermosa, Tabasco (Mexico); Van Laak, P. [ITC, Department of Natural Resources, P.O. Box 6, 7500 AA Enschede (Netherlands); Masera, O. [Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas, UNAMAP 27-3 Xangari 58089, Morelia, Michoacan (Mexico); Murdiyarso, D. [Center for International Forestry Research, Jl. CIFOR, Situ Gede Sindangbarang, Bogor 16680 (Indonesia)

    2007-06-15

    Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation account for about 25% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but cannot be credited under current climate change agreements. In the discussions around the architecture of the post-2012 climate regime, the possibility of including credits for reduced emissions from deforestation arises. The paper reviews two approaches for this, compensated reductions (CR) as proposed by Santilli et al. and the Joint Research Centre proposal that combine voluntary commitments by non-Annex I countries to reduce emissions from deforestation with carbon market financing. Both approaches have the clear advantages of simplicity and the possibility of fitting to an evolving greenhouse gas emission reduction regime. The authors consider the strengths and limitations of each proposal and build upon them to address several implementation challenges and options for improvement. Given the urgency of avoiding dangerous climate change, the timely development of technically sound, politically acceptable, cost-effective and practicable measures to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is essential. These two approaches take us a step closer to this goal, but they need to be refined rapidly to enable this goal to be realised.

  18. Aluminium release from acidic forest soil following deforestation and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Acidic tropical soils often have high Al3+ concentrations in soil solutions, which can be toxic to plants and, thereby, reduce agricultural yields. This study focuses on the impact of deforestation and cultivation on the short and long-term Al geochemistry of acidic soils in Ghana, West Africa. Site-specific investigations were ...

  19. Modeling spatial pattern of deforestation using GIS and logistic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study aimed to predict spatial distribution of deforestation and detects factors influencing forest degradation of Northern forests of Ilam province. For this purpose, effects of six factors including distance from road and settlement areas, forest fragmentation index, elevation, slope and distance from the forest edge on the ...

  20. Evapotranspiration of deforested areas in central and southwestern Amazonia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Randow, von R.C.S.; Randow, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Tomasella, J.; Kruijt, B.

    2012-01-01

    Considering the high rates of evapotranspiration of Amazonian forests, understanding the impacts of deforestation on water loss rates is important for assessing those impacts on a regional and global scale. This paper quantifies evapotranspiration rates in two different pasture sites in Amazonia and

  1. The challenge of assessing social dimensions of avoided deforestation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pasgaard, Maya

    2013-01-01

    Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in developing countries (REDD +) has moved to the central stage of the climate change debate by being promoted as a significant, cheap, and quick win–win strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby mitigate climate change...

  2. Bushmeat Hunting, Deforestation, and Prediction of Zoonotic Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daszak, Peter; Kilpatrick, A. Marm; Burke, Donald S.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding the emergence of new zoonotic agents requires knowledge of pathogen biodiversity in wildlife, human-wildlife interactions, anthropogenic pressures on wildlife populations, and changes in society and human behavior. We discuss an interdisciplinary approach combining virology, wildlife biology, disease ecology, and anthropology that enables better understanding of how deforestation and associated hunting leads to the emergence of novel zoonotic pathogens. PMID:16485465

  3. Clearing the Way for Reducing Emissions from Tropical Deforestation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Skutsch, Margaret; Bird, N.; Trines, E.; Dutschke, M.; Frumhoff, P.; de Jong, B.H.J.; van Laake, P.E.; Masera, O.; Murdiyarso, D.

    2007-01-01

    Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation account for about 25% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but cannot be credited under current climate change agreements. In the discussions around the architecture of the post-2012 climate regime, the possibility of including credits for

  4. Mapping Deforestation and Forest Degradation Patterns in Western Himalaya, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal Mueen Qamer

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The Himalayan mountain forest ecosystem has been degrading since the British ruled the area in the 1850s. Local understanding of the patterns and processes of degradation is desperately required to devise management strategies to halt this degradation and provide long-term sustainability. This work comprises a satellite image based study in combination with national expert validation to generate sub-district level statistics for forest cover over the Western Himalaya, Pakistan, which accounts for approximately 67% of the total forest cover of the country. The time series of forest cover maps (1990, 2000, 2010 reveal extensive deforestation in the area. Indeed, approximately 170,684 ha of forest has been lost, which amounts to 0.38% per year clear cut or severely degraded during the last 20 years. A significant increase in the rate of deforestation is observed in the second half of the study period, where much of the loss occurs at the western borders along with Afghanistan. The current study is the first systematic and comprehensive effort to map changes to forest cover in Northern Pakistan. Deforestation hotspots identified at the sub-district level provide important insight into deforestation patterns, which may facilitate the development of appropriate forest conservation and management strategies in the country.

  5. Emissions and Deforestation Associated with Household Fuel Wood ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fuel wood is regarded as a major source of energy around the world, particularly in developing nations where it forms part of the energy mix. Most rural communities around the world, consider forests a repository of stored energy. This paper focuses on the role of fuel wood in deforestation and the emission of greenhouse ...

  6. Landowner Satisfaction with the Wetland Reserve Program in Texas: A Mixed-Methods Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroman, Dianne; Kreuter, Urs P.

    2016-01-01

    Using mail survey data and telephone interviews, we report on landowner satisfaction with permanent easements held by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) throughout Texas. This study found that landowners were dissatisfied with the NRCS Wetland Reserve Program (WRP), conflicting with results of previous studies. The objective of this study was to explore specific reasons for frustration expressed by landowners with the program. We found three predominant themes underpinning program dissatisfaction: (1) upfront restoration failures, (2) overly restrictive easement constraints, and (3) bureaucratic hurdles limiting landowners' ability to conduct adaptive management on their easement property. The implications of this study suggest that attitudes of landowners participating in the WRP may limit the long-term effectiveness of this program. Suggestions for improving the program include implementing timely, ecologically sound restoration procedures and streamlining and simplifying the approval process for management activity requests. In addition, the NRCS should consider revising WRP restriction guidelines in order to provide more balance between protection goals and landowner autonomy.

  7. Geomechanical analysis to predict the oil leak at the wellbores in Big Hill Strategic Petroleum Reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Byoung Yoon

    2014-02-01

    Oil leaks were found in wellbores of Caverns 105 and 109 at the Big Hill Strategic Petroleum Reserve site. According to the field observations, two instances of casing damage occurred at the depth of the interbed between the caprock bottom and salt top. A three dimensional finite element model, which contains wellbore element blocks and allows each cavern to be configured individually, is constructed to investigate the wellbore damage mechanism. The model also contains element blocks to represent interface between each lithology and a shear zone to examine the interbed behavior in a realistic manner. The causes of the damaged casing segments are a result of vertical and horizontal movements of the interbed between the caprock and salt dome. The salt top subsides because the volume of caverns below the salt top decrease with time due to salt creep closure, while the caprock subsides at a slower rate because the caprock is thick and stiffer. This discrepancy yields a deformation of the well. The deformed wellbore may fail at some time. An oil leak occurs when the wellbore fails. A possible oil leak date of each well is determined using the equivalent plastic strain failure criterion. A well grading system for a remediation plan is developed based on the predicted leak dates of each wellbore.

  8. Selecting better attributes in third-party hotel reservation Web sites: A comparative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruben Huertas

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Internet has been viewed by many travel organizations as an innovative and competitive marketing tool in offering travel-related information and online transaction opportunities (Doolin et al., 2002. But, Internet also has proportionate opportunities to appear new intermediaries in the new hotel value chain (Connolly et al., 1998. A substantial portion of online room reservations continues to be accounted by the third-party Web sites (Law and Cheung, 2006. Hotels have been actively involved in multi-channel distribution in order to sell products and services more efficiently using a combination of traditional and electronic channels. It is important for organizations to rely on the channels that best match the organizational goals (O’Connor and Frew, 2004.The methodology for the experiment follows Statistical Design of Experiments (SDE. SDE is a statistical technique useful for developing, improving and optimizing processes and also has important applications in research into customer psychology and behaviour (Rosenbaum 1999. However, SDE is not a new tool in marketing; pioneering works such as those by Holland and Cravens (1973, Chevalier (1975 and more recently those of Starkey, Aughton and Brewin (1997, Almquist y Wyner (2001 have used full factorials and fractional factorial designs. In this work we use a fractional factorial design in four four-size blocks design and we have not find any reference that use this kind of design in Marketing.

  9. Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Xuhui; Goulden, Michael L; Hollinger, David Y; Barr, Alan; Black, T Andrew; Bohrer, Gil; Bracho, Rosvel; Drake, Bert; Goldstein, Allen; Gu, Lianhong; Katul, Gabriel; Kolb, Thomas; Law, Beverly E; Margolis, Hank; Meyers, Tilden; Monson, Russell; Munger, William; Oren, Ram; Paw U, Kyaw Tha; Richardson, Andrew D; Schmid, Hans Peter; Staebler, Ralf; Wofsy, Steven; Zhao, Lei

    2011-11-16

    Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo-sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it other biophysical processes may overwhelm the albedo effect to generate warming instead. Ongoing land-use activities, such as land management for climate mitigation, are occurring at local scales (hectares) presumably too small to generate the feedback, and it is not known whether the intrinsic biophysical mechanism on its own can change the surface temperature in a consistent manner. Nor has the effect of deforestation on climate been demonstrated over large areas from direct observations. Here we show that surface air temperature is lower in open land than in nearby forested land. The effect is 0.85 ± 0.44 K (mean ± one standard deviation) northwards of 45° N and 0.21 ± 0.53 K southwards. Below 35° N there is weak evidence that deforestation leads to warming. Results are based on comparisons of temperature at forested eddy covariance towers in the USA and Canada and, as a proxy for small areas of cleared land, nearby surface weather stations. Night-time temperature changes unrelated to changes in surface albedo are an important contributor to the overall cooling effect. The observed latitudinal dependence is consistent with theoretical expectation of changes in energy loss from convection and radiation across latitudes in both the daytime and night-time phase of the diurnal cycle, the latter of which remains uncertain in climate models. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved

  10. Forest fire situation analysis over forest reserve land in Tomsk petroleum province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasko, O A; Baranova, A V

    2015-01-01

    The paper delivers the analysis of space-time characteristics of forest fire ignition and spread in the North of Tomsk oblast, i.e. petroleum production area (Kargasok, Parabel and Teguldet districts). It also presents long-term and seasonal forest fire behavior including fire ignition and spread frequency (annual and seasonal), the fire season duration and their zonality. The main driving factors of forest fire ignition both human and natural ones are revealed

  11. Deforestation and Carbon Stock Loss in Brazil's Amazonian Settlements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanai, Aurora Miho; Nogueira, Euler Melo; de Alencastro Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima; Fearnside, Philip Martin

    2017-03-01

    We estimate deforestation and the carbon stock in 2740 (82 %) of the 3325 settlements in Brazil's Legal Amazonia region. Estimates are made both using available satellite data and a carbon map for the "pre-modern" period (prior to 1970). We used data from Brazil's Project for Monitoring Deforestation in Amazonia updated through 2013 and from the Brazilian Biomes Deforestation Monitoring Project (PMDBBS) updated through 2010. To obtain the pre-modern and recent carbon stocks we performed an intersection between a carbon map and a map derived from settlement boundaries and deforestation data. Although the settlements analyzed occupied only 8 % of Legal Amazonia, our results indicate that these settlements contributed 17 % (160,410 km 2 ) of total clearing (forest + non-forest) in Legal Amazonia (967,003 km 2 ). This represents a clear-cutting of 41 % of the original vegetation in the settlements. Out of this total, 72 % (115,634 km 2 ) was in the "Federal Settlement Project" (PA) category. Deforestation in settlements represents 20 % (2.6 Pg C) of the total carbon loss in Legal Amazonia (13.1 Pg C). The carbon stock in remaining vegetation represents 3.8 Pg C, or 6 % of the total remaining carbon stock in Legal Amazonia (58.6 Pg C) in the periods analyzed. The carbon reductions in settlements are caused both by the settlers and by external actors. Our findings suggest that agrarian reform policies contributed directly to carbon loss. Thus, the implementation of new settlements should consider potential carbon stock losses, especially if settlements are created in areas with high carbon stocks.

  12. A global assessment of closed forests, deforestation and malaria risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    GUERRA, C. A.; SNOW, R. W.; HAY, S. I.

    2011-01-01

    Global environmental change is expected to affect profoundly the transmission of the parasites that cause human malaria. Amongst the anthropogenic drivers of change, deforestation is arguably the most conspicuous, and its rate is projected to increase in the coming decades. The canonical epidemiological understanding is that deforestation increases malaria risk in Africa and the Americas and diminishes it in South–east Asia. Partial support for this position is provided here, through a systematic review of the published literature on deforestation, malaria and the relevant vector bionomics. By using recently updated boundaries for the spatial limits of malaria and remotely-sensed estimates of tree cover, it has been possible to determine the population at risk of malaria in closed forest, at least for those malaria-endemic countries that lie within the main blocks of tropical forest. Closed forests within areas of malaria risk cover approximately 1.5 million km2 in the Amazon region, 1.4 million km2 in Central Africa, 1.2 million km2 in the Western Pacific, and 0.7 million km2 in South–east Asia. The corresponding human populations at risk of malaria within these forests total 11.7 million, 18.7 million, 35.1 million and 70.1 million, respectively. By coupling these numbers with the country-specific rates of deforestation, it has been possible to rank malaria-endemic countries according to their potential for change in the population at risk of malaria, as the result of deforestation. The on-going research aimed at evaluating these relationships more quantitatively, through the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP), is highlighted. PMID:16630376

  13. Analysis of digital subtraction angiography for estimating flow reserve in critical coronary artery stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotoku, Shinya; Matsuzaki, Masunori; Otani, Nozomi

    1988-01-01

    To assess the accuracy of digital subtraction angiography in evaluating coronary flow reserve in cases with critical coronary artery stenosis, time-density curves were obtained from digital subtraction coronary angiograms in the myocardial region of interest. Time to peak contrast (TPC) and time constant of the washout exponential curve (T) were measured in 14 patients with stable effort angina pectoris and critical one vessel lesion before and after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA). All patients had normal left ventricular ejection fraction (59±7%) and 201 Tl myocardial images at rest. The values of TPC and T were significantly shortened from 5.4±1.3 to 4.5±1.0 sec (p<0.02) and from 10.9±3.8 to 5.3±1.3 sec (p<0.001) after PTCA, respectively. However, in 9 patients TPC values were approximately the same before and after PTCA. In five experimental dogs with critical circumflex coronary artery stenosis, coronary flow (CF; Doppler flowmeter) and systolic thickening of the posterior wall (by sonomicrometry) at rest did not differ from those of the controls. However, contrast media-induced reactive hyperemia was markedly attenuated, accompanied by a significant increase in T (7.7±4.5 vs 15.8±10.9 sec, p<0.01) and totally unchanged TPC (both 6.8 sec). With simultaneous tracings of CF and time-density curves, TPC and washout phases corresponded with contrast-induced transient CF reduction and hyperemic phases, respectively. We concluded that T may be more sensitive for estimating CF maintained nearly normal, e.g., in patients with stable effort angina pectoris having normal left ventricular wall motion at rest. (author)

  14. Analysis of digital subtraction coronary angiography for estimation of flow reserve in critical coronary stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohtoku, Shinya

    1988-01-01

    To examine the accuracy of digital subtraction angiographic assessment of coronary flow reserve in critical coronary stenosis, time-density curve was obtained from digital subtraction coronary angiograms for myocardial region of interest. Time to peak contrast(TPC) and time constant of the washout exponential curve(T) were measured in 14 patients with stable effort angina pectoris and critical one vessel lesion before and after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty(PTCA). All patients had normal left ventricular ejection fraction (59 ± 7 %) and Tl 201 myocardial image at rest. The values of TPC and T were significantly shortened from 5.4 ± 1.3 to 4.5 ± 1.0 sec (p < 0.02) and from 10.9 ± 3.8 to 5.3 ± 1.3 sec(p < 0.001) after PTCA, respectively. However, in 9 of all patients TPC after PTCA showed approximately the same valued as those before PTCA. In 5 experimental dogs with critical circumflex stenosis, coronary flow(CF;Doppler flow meter) and systolic thickning of the posterior wall(by sonomicrometry) at rest were not different from control, however, contrast media-induced reactive hyperemia was markedly attenuated, accompanied with a significant of T (7.7 ± 4.5 vs 15.8 ± 10.9 sec, p < 0.01) and completely unchanged TPC (both 6.8 sec). With simultaneous tracing of CF and time-density curve, TPC and washout phase corresponded with contrast-induced transient CF reduction and hyperemic phase, respectively. We conclude that T might be more sensitive for estimation of CF is maintained almost normal, such as patients with stable effort angina pectoris having normal left ventricular wall motion at rest. (author)

  15. OPHRYS GENERA IN THE TERRITORY OF THE TEPE-OBA BOTANICAL RESERVE. POPULATION'S ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktoria Ju. Letukhova

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract. Aim. To determine the amount and age structure of Ophrys oestrifera and O. apifera populations on the territory of the Tepe-Oba botanical reserve (South-East Crimea, study the morphological features of plants. To evaluate the current populations' state and identify factors of threats. Material. Three populations of Ophrys oestrifera and one population of O. apifera were found and studied on the territory of Tepe-Oba, their quantitative and age composition (structure were determined, vitality of individuals for O. oestrifera populations was defined. Results. O. oestrifera grows in three localities on the areas of 10 to 400 m2 and in the numbers of 28 to 342 individuals. The population of O. apifera has its area of 10 m2 and its size is 15 generative specimens. Populations O. oestrifera No. 1, 2 are young, normal and stable. Populations of O. oestrifera No. 3 and O. apifera have not yet reached their dynamic equilibrium (balance. O. oestrifera index of vitality doesn't significantly different in three populations (IVC=1,00– 1,09, that indicates approximately the same kind of growing conditions in the studying territory. However, growing in the same conditions O. apifera has some biometric differences from the O. oestrifera. For example, O. oestrifera plants are 1.5 times higher, inflorescence length is on average 2.5–3 times longer, and number of flowers in the inflorescence is 1,5 times more than those O. apifera. Main conclusions. The condition of O. oestrifera population in the territory of Tepe-Oba is satisfactory. Insignificant differences diversity in their vital structure can be associated with a e condition of O. apifera population is threatening because of its low size, small area and the lack of pregenerative plants in the age spectrum.

  16. Deforestation fires versus understory fires in the Amazon Basin: What can we learn from satellite-based CO measurements?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Alonso, S.; Deeter, M. N.; Worden, H. M.; Gille, J. C.; Clerbaux, C.; George, M.

    2014-12-01

    Deforestation fires in the Amazon Basin abound during the dry season (July to October) and are mostly associated with "slash and burn" agricultural practices. Understory fires occur when fires escape from deforested areas into neighboring standing forests; they spread slowly below the canopy, affecting areas that may be comparable or even larger than clear-cut areas. The interannual variabilities of understory fires and deforestation rates appear to be uncorrelated. Areas burned in understory fires are particularly extensive during droughts. Because they progress below a canopy of living trees, understory fires and their effects are not as easily identifiable from space as deforestation fires. Here we analyze satellite remote sensing products for CO and fire to investigate differences between deforestation fires and understory fires in the Amazon Basin under varying climatic conditions. The MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) instrument on board NASA's Terra satellite has been measuring tropospheric CO since 2000, providing the longest global CO record to date. IASI (the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) A and B are two instruments on board METOP-A and -B, respectively, measuring, among others, CO since 2006 and 2012. MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instruments on board NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites provide, among other products, a daily record of fires and their effects since 2000 and 2002, respectively. The temporal extent of all these datasets allows for the detailed analysis of drought versus non-drought years. Initial results indicate that MOPITT CO emissions during the dry season peaked in 2005, 2007, and 2010. Those were draught years and coincide with peaks in area affected by understory fires.

  17. Theorizing and Rethinking Linkages Between the Natural Environment and the Modern World-System: Deforestation in the Late 20th Century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J. Burns

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Building on prior work in world-system analysis and human ecology, we test a macro-level theory that social and demographic causes of deforestation will vary across zones of the modern world-system. Using multivariate regression analysis, we examine models of deforestation over the period 1990-2000. We test for main effects of world-system posmon, two different population variables (urbanization and proportion under working age, and economic development within zone, as well as for the contextual effects of these variables as they operate differently across world-system positions. Our findings indicate that generic models of deforestation need to be qualified, because the particular social factors most closely associated with deforestation tend to vary by position in the global hierarchy. Deforestation at the macro level is best explained by considering effects of socio-demographic processes contextually, in terms of world-system dynamics. We discuss the findings in a more general world-systems and behavioral ecological framework, and suggest the field will be well served with more precise theorizing and closer attention to scope conditions.

  18. Untangling the proximate causes and underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Cheng Ling; Prescott, Graham W; De Alban, Jose Don T; Ziegler, Alan D; Webb, Edward L

    2017-12-01

    Political transitions often trigger substantial environmental changes. In particular, deforestation can result from the complex interplay among the components of a system-actors, institutions, and existing policies-adapting to new opportunities. A dynamic conceptual map of system components is particularly useful for systems in which multiple actors, each with different worldviews and motivations, may be simultaneously trying to alter different facets of the system, unaware of the impacts on other components. In Myanmar, a global biodiversity hotspot with the largest forest area in mainland Southeast Asia, ongoing political and economic reforms are likely to change the dynamics of deforestation drivers. A fundamental conceptual map of these dynamics is therefore a prerequisite for interventions to reduce deforestation. We used a system-dynamics approach and causal-network analysis to determine the proximate causes and underlying drivers of forest loss and degradation in Myanmar from 1995 to 2016 and to articulate the linkages among them. Proximate causes included infrastructure development, timber extraction, and agricultural expansion. These were stimulated primarily by formal agricultural, logging, mining, and hydropower concessions and economic investment and social issues relating to civil war and land tenure. Reform of land laws, the link between natural resource extraction and civil war, and the allocation of agricultural concessions will influence the extent of future forest loss and degradation in Myanmar. The causal-network analysis identified priority areas for policy interventions, for example, creating a public registry of land-concession holders to deter corruption in concession allocation. We recommend application of this analytical approach to other countries, particularly those undergoing political transition, to inform policy interventions to reduce forest loss and degradation. © 2017 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley

  19. Remote sensing analysis of vegetation at the San Carlos Apache Reservation, Arizona and surrounding area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Laura M.; Middleton, Barry R.; Wilson, Natalie R.

    2018-01-01

    Mapping of vegetation types is of great importance to the San Carlos Apache Tribe and their management of forestry and fire fuels. Various remote sensing techniques were applied to classify multitemporal Landsat 8 satellite data, vegetation index, and digital elevation model data. A multitiered unsupervised classification generated over 900 classes that were then recoded to one of the 16 generalized vegetation/land cover classes using the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP) map as a guide. A supervised classification was also run using field data collected in the SWReGAP project and our field campaign. Field data were gathered and accuracy assessments were generated to compare outputs. Our hypothesis was that a resulting map would update and potentially improve upon the vegetation/land cover class distributions of the older SWReGAP map over the 24,000  km2 study area. The estimated overall accuracies ranged between 43% and 75%, depending on which method and field dataset were used. The findings demonstrate the complexity of vegetation mapping, the importance of recent, high-quality-field data, and the potential for misleading results when insufficient field data are collected.

  20. Geospatial characterization of deforestation, fragmentation and forest fires in Telangana state, India: conservation perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudhakar Reddy, C; Vazeed Pasha, S; Jha, C S; Dadhwal, V K

    2015-07-01

    Conservation of biodiversity has been put to the highest priority throughout the world. The process of identifying threatened ecosystems will search for different drivers related to biodiversity loss. The present study aimed to generate spatial information on deforestation and ecological degradation indicators of fragmentation and forest fires using systematic conceptual approach in Telangana state, India. Identification of ecosystems facing increasing vulnerability can help to safeguard the extinctions of species and useful for conservation planning. The technological advancement of satellite remote sensing and Geographical Information System has increased greatly in assessment and monitoring of ecosystem-level changes. The areas of threat were identified by creating grid cells (5 × 5 km) in Geographical Information System (GIS). Deforestation was assessed using multi-source data of 1930, 1960, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2013. The forest cover of 40,746 km(2), 29,299 km(2), 18,652 km(2), 18,368 km(2), 18,006 km(2), 17,556 km(2) and 17,520 km(2) was estimated during 1930, 1960, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2013, respectively. Historical evaluation of deforestation revealed that major changes had occurred in forests of Telangana and identified 1095 extinct, 397 critically endangered, 523 endangered and 311 vulnerable ecosystem grid cells. The fragmentation analysis has identified 307 ecosystem grid cells under critically endangered status. Forest burnt area information was extracted using AWiFS data of 2005 to 2014. Spatial analysis indicates total fire-affected forest in Telangana as 58.9% in a decadal period. Conservation status has been recorded depending upon values of threat for each grid, which forms the basis for conservation priority hotspots. Of existing forest, 2.1% grids had severe ecosystem collapse and had been included under the category of conservation priority hotspot-I, followed by 27.2% in conservation priority hotspot-II and 51.5% in conservation

  1. Actor-specific contributions to the deforestation slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godar, Javier; Gardner, Toby A; Tizado, E Jorge; Pacheco, Pablo

    2014-10-28

    Annual deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon fell by 77% between 2004 and 2011, yet have stabilized since 2009 at 5,000-7,000 km(2). We provide the first submunicipality assessment, to our knowledge, of actor-specific contributions to the deforestation slowdown by linking agricultural census and remote-sensing data on deforestation and forest degradation. Almost half (36,158 km(2)) of the deforestation between 2004 and 2011 occurred in areas dominated by larger properties (>500 ha), whereas only 12% (9,720 km(2)) occurred in areas dominated by smallholder properties (deforestation rates fell during this period by 68-85% for all actors, the contribution of the largest landholders (>2,500 ha) to annual deforestation decreased over time (63% decrease between 2005 and 2011), whereas that of smallholders went up by a similar amount (69%) during the same period. In addition, the deforestation share attributable to remote areas increased by 88% between 2009 and 2011. These observations are consistent across the Brazilian Amazon, regardless of geographical differences in actor dominance or socioenvironmental context. Our findings suggest that deforestation policies to date, which have been particularly focused on command and control measures on larger properties in deforestation hotspots, may be increasingly limited in their effectiveness and fail to address all actors equally. Further reductions in deforestation are likely to be increasingly costly and require actor-tailored approaches, including better monitoring to detect small-scale deforestation and a shift toward more incentive-based conservation policies.

  2. Resource Management Plan for the Oak Ridge Reservation: Volume 22, Resource information and site analysis for planning on the Oak Ridge Reservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chance, W.W.

    1986-12-01

    The Department of Energy's (DOE's) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) consists of approximately 15,000 ha (37,000 acres) of federally owned lands; it contains three major facilities (Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant) operated by a single contractor and a number of other facilities operated either by DOE or under contract to others. This report documents the various land use elements, land use constraints (physical, programmatic, and geopolitical), and site potential capabilities and provides current documentation of related data for making land use and site development decisions. The ORR has physical, programmatic, and geopolitical constraints that have been identified, measured, and mapped. The constraints and opportunities map was used to identify developable land areas. Many of these sites have only remote potential for meeting any planned needs for expansion of existing facilities. However, stand-alone research functions or other facilities are possible on these sites. These studied and measured findings lead to the conclusion that extreme care must be taken in the evaluation of future use or disposition of available land. Furthermore, it is time to consider and evaluate the feasibility for renewal. The potential for recycling lands formerly used by programs and functions that have been completed or terminated is very real, considering the age, condition, and obsolescence of these facilities.

  3. Differential Rate of Deforestation in Two Adjoining Indian River Basins: Does Resource Availability Matters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, P.; Behera, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Deforestation is one of the key factors of global climate change by altering the surface albedo reduces the evapotranspiration and surface roughness leads to warming in tropical regions. River basins are always subjected to LULC changes, especially decline in forest cover to give way for agricultural expansion, urbanisation, industrialisation etc. We generated LULC maps at three decadal intervals i.e., 1985, 1995 and 2005 in two major river basins of India using Landsat data employing on-screen visual image interpretation technique. In Rain-fed, Mahanadi river basin (MRB), 30.64% forest cover in 1985 was reduced to 30.13% in 2005, wherein glacier-fed, Brahmaputra river basin (BRB) this change was 63.44% to 62.32% during 1985 to 2005. Though conversion of forest land for agricultural activities was the major LULC changes in both the basins, the rate was more than two times higher in BRB than MRB. Scrub land in few zones acted as an intermediate class for mixed forest conversion to cropland land in both the basins. Analysing the drivers, in deforestation we observed the proximity zones around habitat and socio-economic drivers contributed higher compared to topographic, edaphic and climate. Using Dyna-CLUE modelling approach, we have predicted the LULC for 2025. For validation, comparing the predicted result with actual LULC of 2005, we obtained > 97% modeling accuracy; therefore it is expected that the Dyna-CLUE model has very well predicted the LULC for the year 2025. The predicted LULC of 2025 captured the similar trend of deforestation around 0.52% in MRB and 1.18% in BRB during 2005 to 2025. Acting as early warning, and with the past 2-decadal change analysis this study is believed to help the land use planners for improved regional planning to create balanced ecosystem, especially in a changing climate. On the basis of driver analysis, we believe that availability of more forest resources in Brahmaputra River basin provided extra liberty for higher

  4. Measuring Carbon Emissions from Deforestation at Donggala Regency, Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahib, I.; Suryanta, J.

    2018-02-01

    Forest is a natural resource that is very important and beneficial for the livelihood either directly or indirectly. Forest has a variety of ecological functions. One of forest functions is to maintain the amount of stored carbon. The forest area changes into non-forest area resulted in reducing forest functions as a provider of environmental services. This study aims: 1) to determine the deforestation during the period of 2000-2011, 2) to make model of the landcover change using logistic regression model, 3) to measurecarbon emissions and valuation based on impact of deforestation. The materials used in this study are : a) Indonesian Topographic Map at Scale 1: 50,000, Geospatial Information Agency (BIG), b) landcover map (year of 2000 and 2011), scale 1 : 250,000, produced by director general of forestry planning, ministry of environment and forestry, 3) environmental variables (dependent variable) such as : distance from roads, distance from streams, elevation and slope. The spatial analysis is done by land change modeler which is module in Idrisi Terrset. Meanwhile calculations of carbon storage and economic value which are done by ecosystem service modelers also as a Idrisi Terrset. The results show that the rate of deforestation during the period of 2000-2011 at Donggala as high as13,448.07 ha or about 1,222.55 ha per year. The impact of the forest cover changes resulted in the decrease of carbon storage up to 3.66 million tons or equivalent to 13.42 million tons of carbon emissions. Economic losses caused carbon emission in period 2000-2011 up to US 38,188,465 (net present value, NPV)

  5. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varsha Vijay

    Full Text Available Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

  6. Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer J Swenson

    Full Text Available Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr. We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009 is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R(2 = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003-2009. Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year. Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.

  7. Gold mining in the Peruvian Amazon: global prices, deforestation, and mercury imports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swenson, Jennifer J; Carter, Catherine E; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Delgado, Cesar I

    2011-04-19

    Many factors such as poverty, ineffective institutions and environmental regulations may prevent developing countries from managing how natural resources are extracted to meet a strong market demand. Extraction for some resources has reached such proportions that evidence is measurable from space. We present recent evidence of the global demand for a single commodity and the ecosystem destruction resulting from commodity extraction, recorded by satellites for one of the most biodiverse areas of the world. We find that since 2003, recent mining deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru is increasing nonlinearly alongside a constant annual rate of increase in international gold price (∼18%/yr). We detect that the new pattern of mining deforestation (1915 ha/year, 2006-2009) is outpacing that of nearby settlement deforestation. We show that gold price is linked with exponential increases in Peruvian national mercury imports over time (R(2) = 0.93, p = 0.04, 2003-2009). Given the past rates of increase we predict that mercury imports may more than double for 2011 (∼500 t/year). Virtually all of Peru's mercury imports are used in artisanal gold mining. Much of the mining increase is unregulated/artisanal in nature, lacking environmental impact analysis or miner education. As a result, large quantities of mercury are being released into the atmosphere, sediments and waterways. Other developing countries endowed with gold deposits are likely experiencing similar environmental destruction in response to recent record high gold prices. The increasing availability of satellite imagery ought to evoke further studies linking economic variables with land use and cover changes on the ground.

  8. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimm, Stuart L.; Jenkins, Clinton N.; Smith, Sharon J.

    2016-01-01

    Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems. PMID:27462984

  9. The Impacts of Oil Palm on Recent Deforestation and Biodiversity Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijay, Varsha; Pimm, Stuart L; Jenkins, Clinton N; Smith, Sharon J

    2016-01-01

    Palm oil is the most widely traded vegetable oil globally, with demand projected to increase substantially in the future. Almost all oil palm grows in areas that were once tropical moist forests, some of them quite recently. The conversion to date, and future expansion, threatens biodiversity and increases greenhouse gas emissions. Today, consumer pressure is pushing companies toward deforestation-free sources of palm oil. To guide interventions aimed at reducing tropical deforestation due to oil palm, we analysed recent expansions and modelled likely future ones. We assessed sample areas to find where oil palm plantations have recently replaced forests in 20 countries, using a combination of high-resolution imagery from Google Earth and Landsat. We then compared these trends to countrywide trends in FAO data for oil palm planted area. Finally, we assessed which forests have high agricultural suitability for future oil palm development, which we refer to as vulnerable forests, and identified critical areas for biodiversity that oil palm expansion threatens. Our analysis reveals regional trends in deforestation associated with oil palm agriculture. In Southeast Asia, 45% of sampled oil palm plantations came from areas that were forests in 1989. For South America, the percentage was 31%. By contrast, in Mesoamerica and Africa, we observed only 2% and 7% of oil palm plantations coming from areas that were forest in 1989. The largest areas of vulnerable forest are in Africa and South America. Vulnerable forests in all four regions of production contain globally high concentrations of mammal and bird species at risk of extinction. However, priority areas for biodiversity conservation differ based on taxa and criteria used. Government regulation and voluntary market interventions can help incentivize the expansion of oil palm plantations in ways that protect biodiversity-rich ecosystems.

  10. Effect of deforestation on stream water chemistry in the Skrzyczne massif (the Beskid Śląski Mountains in southern Poland).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosmowska, Amanda; Żelazny, Mirosław; Małek, Stanisław; Siwek, Joanna Paulina; Jelonkiewicz, Łukasz

    2016-10-15

    The purpose of the study was to identify the factors affecting stream water chemistry in the small mountain catchments deforested to varying degrees, from 98.7 to 14.1%, due to long-term acid deposition. Water samples were collected monthly in 2013 and 2014 from 17 streams flowing across three distinct elevation zones in the Skrzyczne massif (Poland): Upper, Middle and Lower Forest Zone. Chemical and physical analyses, including the pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total mineral content (Mt), water temperature, and the concentrations of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), Na(+), K(+), HCO3(-), SO4(2-), Cl(-), and NO3(-), were conducted. Based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the most important factor affecting water chemistry was human impact associated with changes in pH, SO4(2-) concentration, and the concentration of most of the main ions. The substantial acidity of the studied environment contributed to the exclusion of natural factors, associated with changes in discharge, from the list of major factors revealed by PCA. All of the streams were characterized by very low EC, Mt, and low concentrations of the main ions such as Ca(2+) and HCO3(-). This is the effect of continuous leaching of solutes from the soils by acidic precipitation. The lowest parameter values were measured for the streams situated in the Upper Forest Zone, which is associated with greater acid deposition at the higher elevations. In the streams located in the Upper Forest Zone, a higher percentage of SO4(2-) occurred than in the streams situated in the Middle and Lower Forest Zones. However, the largest share of SO4(2-) was measured in the most deforested catchment. The saturation of the studied deforested catchment with sulfur compounds is reflected by a positive correlation between SO4(2-) and discharge. Hence, a forest acts as a natural buffer that limits the level of acidity in the natural environment caused by acidic atmospheric deposition. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Isotopes as validation tools for predictions of the impact of Amazonian deforestation on climate and regional hydrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson-Sellers, A.; Chambers, S.; McGuffie, K.

    2002-01-01

    Isotopic analysis and modelling of the Amazon Basin have both been reported for about thirty years. Isotopic data have been used to explain important characteristics of Amazonian hydrologic cycling by means of simple models. To date there has been no attempt to use isotopic data to evaluate global climate models employed to predict the possible impacts of Amazonian deforestation. This paper reviews the history of isotopic analysis and simulations of deforestation in the Amazon and initiates isotopic evaluation of GCMs. It is shown that one widely reported simulation set gives seasonal transpiration and re-evaporated canopy interception budgets different from those derived from isotopic analysis. It is found that temporal changes (1965 to 1990) in wet season deuterium excess differences between Belem and Manaus are consistent with GCM results only if there has been a relative increase in evaporation from non-fractionating water sources over this period. We propose synergistic future interactions among the climate/hydrological modelling and isotopic analysis communities in order to improve confidence in simulations of Amazonian deforestation. (author)

  12. Analysis of the effects of section 29 tax credits on reserve additions and production of gas from unconventional resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-09-01

    Federal tax credits for production of natural gas from unconventional resources can stimulate drilling and reserves additions at a relatively low cost to the Treasury. This report presents the results of an analysis of the effects of a proposed extension of the Section 29 alternative fuels production credit specifically for unconventional gas. ICF Resources estimated the net effect of the extension of the credit (the difference between development activity expected with the extension of the credit and that expected if the credit expires in December 1990 as scheduled). The analysis addressed the effect of tax credits on project economics and capital formation, drilling and reserve additions, production, impact on the US and regional economies, and the net public sector costs and incremental revenues. The analysis was based on explicit modeling of the three dominant unconventional gas resources: Tight sands, coalbed methane, and Devonian shales. It incorporated the most current data on resource size, typical well recoveries and economics, and anticipated activity of the major producers. Each resource was further disaggregated for analysis based on distinct resource characteristics, development practices, regional economics, and historical development patterns

  13. Analysis of the effects of section 29 tax credits on reserve additions and production of gas from unconventional resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1990-09-01

    Federal tax credits for production of natural gas from unconventional resources can stimulate drilling and reserves additions at a relatively low cost to the Treasury. This report presents the results of an analysis of the effects of a proposed extension of the Section 29 alternative fuels production credit specifically for unconventional gas. ICF Resources estimated the net effect of the extension of the credit (the difference between development activity expected with the extension of the credit and that expected if the credit expires in December 1990 as scheduled). The analysis addressed the effect of tax credits on project economics and capital formation, drilling and reserve additions, production, impact on the US and regional economies, and the net public sector costs and incremental revenues. The analysis was based on explicit modeling of the three dominant unconventional gas resources: Tight sands, coalbed methane, and Devonian shales. It incorporated the most current data on resource size, typical well recoveries and economics, and anticipated activity of the major producers. Each resource was further disaggregated for analysis based on distinct resource characteristics, development practices, regional economics, and historical development patterns.

  14. Baseline Map of Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Tropical Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Nancy L.; Brown, Sandra; Hagen, Stephen C.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Petrova, Silvia; Salas, William; Hansen, Matthew C.; Potapov, Peter V.; Lotsch, Alexander

    2012-06-01

    Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.

  15. Effectiveness of community forest management at reducing deforestation in Madagascar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasolofoson, Ranaivo Andriarilala; Ferraro, Paul J.; Jenkins, Clinton N.

    2015-01-01

    Community Forest Management (CFM) is a widespread conservation approach in the tropics. It is also promoted as a means by which payment for ecosystem services schemes can be implemented. However, evidence on its performance is weak. We investigated the effectiveness of CFM at reducing deforestation...... from 2000 to 2010 in Madagascar. To control for factors confounding impact estimates, we used statistical matching. We also contrasted the effects of CFM by whether commercial use of forest resources is allowed or not. We cannot detect an effect, on average, of CFM compared to no CFM, even when we...... restricted the sample to only where information suggests effective CFM implementation on the ground. Likewise, we cannot detect an effect of CFM where commercial use of natural resources is allowed. However, we can detect a reduction in deforestation in CFM that does not permit commercial uses, compared...

  16. Baseline map of carbon emissions from deforestation in tropical regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Nancy L; Brown, Sandra; Hagen, Stephen C; Saatchi, Sassan S; Petrova, Silvia; Salas, William; Hansen, Matthew C; Potapov, Peter V; Lotsch, Alexander

    2012-06-22

    Policies to reduce emissions from deforestation would benefit from clearly derived, spatially explicit, statistically bounded estimates of carbon emissions. Existing efforts derive carbon impacts of land-use change using broad assumptions, unreliable data, or both. We improve on this approach using satellite observations of gross forest cover loss and a map of forest carbon stocks to estimate gross carbon emissions across tropical regions between 2000 and 2005 as 0.81 petagram of carbon per year, with a 90% prediction interval of 0.57 to 1.22 petagrams of carbon per year. This estimate is 25 to 50% of recently published estimates. By systematically matching areas of forest loss with their carbon stocks before clearing, these results serve as a more accurate benchmark for monitoring global progress on reducing emissions from deforestation.

  17. Thermodynamic contributions of deforestation to global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, A.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines a portion of the thermodynamics of global warming. The calculations use the endothermic photosynthesis reaction and yearly measures of CO 2 uptake to determine the amount of energy that is absorbed by forest cover each year. The energy absorption value of forest coverage determines the yearly cost of deforestation. The calculations reveal that 3.92 * 10 15 kJ less solar energy is absorbed by global forest coverage because of deforestation each year. The energy is enough to warm the atmosphere by 0.00008 °C / year. By comparison the same amount of energy represents 0.001 % of the atmospheric energy gains between 1995 and 2003. The results of this paper raise questions about the nature of global warming and the possibility that thermodynamic contributions to global climate change are significant. (author)

  18. Deforestation and Rice: Using Methods in Modeling and Remote Sensing to Project Patterns of Forest Change in Eastern Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, A. H.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Fischer, R.; Huth, A.; Shugart, H. H.

    2013-12-01

    In the species rich tropics, forest conservation is often eclipsed by anthropogenic disturbance, resulting in a heightened need for an accurate assessment of biomass and the gaining of predictive capability before these ecosystems disappear. The combination of multi-temporal remote sensing data, field data and forest growth modeling to quantify carbon stocks and flux is therefore of great importance. In this study, we utilize these methods to (1) improve forest biomass and carbon flux estimates for the study region in Eastern Madagascar, and (2) initialize an individual-based growth model that incorporates the anthropogenic factors causing deforestation to project ecosystem response to future environmental change. Recent studies have shown that there is a direct correlation between the international rice market and rates of deforestation in tropical countries such as Madagascar (see Minten et al., 2006). Further, although law protects the remaining forest areas, dictatorships and recent political unrest have lead to poor or non-existent enforcement of precious wood and forest protection over the past 35 years. Our approach combined multi-temporal remote sensing analysis and ecological modeling using a theoretical and mathematical approach to assess biomass change and to understand how tree growth and life history (growth response patterns) relate to past and present economic variability in Madagascar forests of the eastern Toamasina region. We measured rates of change of deforestation with respect to politics and the price of rice by classifying and comparing biomass using 30m Landsat during 5 political regime time periods (1985-1992, 1993-1996, 1997-2001, 2002-2008, 2009 to present). Forest biomass estimations were calibrated using forest inventory data collected over 3 growing seasons over the study region (130 small circular plots in primary forest). This information was then built into the previously parameterized (Armstrong et al., in prep and Fischer et al in

  19. Extractive reserves in Brazilian Amazonia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fearnside, P.M (National Institute for Research in the Amazon, Manaus-Amazonas (Brazil))

    1989-06-01

    In 1985 an opportunity arose for maintaining tracts of Amazonian forest under sustainable use. Brazil's National Council of Rubber Tappers and the Rural Worker's Union proposed the creation of a set of reserves of a new type, called extractive reserves. The first six are being established in one of the Brazilian states most threatened by deforestatation. The creation of extractive reserves grants legal protection to forest land traditionally used by rubber tappers, Brazil-nut gatherers, and other extractivists. The term extrativismo (extractivism) in Brazil refers to removing nontimber forest products, such as latex, resins, and nuts, without felling the trees. Approximately 30 products are collected for commercial sale. Many more types of forest materials are gathered, for example as food and medicines, for the extractivists' own use. The reserve proposal is attractive for several reasons related to social problems. It allows the rubber tappers to continue their livelihood rather than be expelled by deforestation. However, it is unlikely that sufficient land will be set aside as extractive reserves to employ all the tappers. Displaced rubber tappers already swell the ranks of urban slum dwellers in Brazil's Amazonian cities, and they have become refugees to continue their profession in the forests of neighboring countries, such as Bolivia.

  20. The deforestation of rural areas in the Lower Congo Province.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iloweka, Ernest Manganda

    2004-12-01

    The Lower Congo is one of eleven provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and is located southwest of Kinshasa Town Province. It has an area of approximately 53.947 km2 with a population of 1,504,361 at an estimated 237 persons per km2. The Province comprises five districts, including Lukaya and Cataracts where rural poverty is severe and the population struggle to make a living through agriculture and woodcutting. These activities result in excessive resource exploitation. The high demand for foodstuffs and the high consumption of wood (for energy, construction and export) in Kinshasa, the capital city of the Democratic Republic of Congo and the expanding towns of Matadi and Boma in the Lower Congo Province, are speeding the deforestation rate and unbalancing forest ecosystems. In addition there is the stress resulting from reduced josher (the rest period for agriculture ground), plus climate change and erosion. The phenomena that that we need to address in these two districts include deforestation, reduced josher, excessive agriculture, erosion, burning and climate change which taken together largely explain the current soil degradation. These areas are marked by excessive post deforestation savannah formation and extended areas of sandy soil, distributed throughout grass and shrub savannahs. This desertification, which is rampant in Lukaya and Cataracts, risks imprisoning the rural population in a vicious cycle of poverty if adequate solutions are not found.

  1. Impact of deforestation on biomass burning in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, W.M.; Liu, M.H.; Ward, D.E.

    1994-01-01

    Fires are widely used for various land use practices in tropical countries. Large amounts of trace gases and aerosol particles are produced during the fires. It is important to assess the potential impact of these gases and particulate matter on the chemistry of the atmosphere and global climate. One of the largest uncertainties in quantifying the effects is the lack of information on the source strengths. The authors quantify the amount of biomass burned due to deforestation in each tropical country on basis of the deforestation rate, the above ground density, and the fraction of above ground biomass burned. Approximately 725 Tg of biomass were burned in 1980 and 984 Tg were burned in 1990. The 36% increase took place mostly in Latin America and tropical Asia. The largest source was Brazil, contributing about 29% of the total biomass burned in the tropics. The second largest source was Indonesia accounting for 10%, followed by Zaire accounting for about 8%. The burning of biomass due to increased deforestation has resulted in an additional 33 Tg CO and 2.5 Tg CH 4 emitted annually to the atmosphere from 1980 to 1990

  2. Tropical deforestation: balancing regional development demands and global environmental concerns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, A B [US Dept. of State, Washington, DC (USA)

    1990-01-01

    Over half of the world's tropical closed forests, which contain the greatest biodiversity, are found in just three countries: Brazil, Indonesia, and Zaire. Accelerated conversion of tropical forests is occurring because of several interlocking socio-economic and political factors: inequitable land distribution, entrenched rural poverty, and rapidly growing populations which push landless and near-landless peasants on to forest lands that are often infertile. If rates instead of absolute numbers are used to measure the severity of deforestation, Nigeria, Argentina, India, Thailand, Myanmar (Burma), Ecquador, and above all Ivory Coast stand out as countries facing an immediate deforestation crisis. Local management of forest resources, however, can be very contentious and complicated, with overlapping government agencies, competing economic interests, and ambiguous regulations. Without capital investment and entrepreneurial initiatives, residents of forest regions may have no alternative but to farm increasingly infertile soils. Non-governmental organizations, such as the World Wildlife Fund are playing leading roles in innovative debt-for-nature swaps and other forest conservation efforts. International development agencies, such as the World Bank, may play the leading role in conservation and reforestation efforts through their financial assistance programmes. The media, as a global information network, has become a powerful influence on the debate over deforestation. The Third World, bearing an increasingly heavy burden of payments to lending institutions that in 1988 surpassed 50 billion US dollars, will make a strong case that it cannot afford widespread forest conservation.

  3. REDD+: Quick Assessment of Deforestation Risk Based on Available Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giulio Di Lallo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The evaluation of the future dynamics of deforestation is essential to creating the basis for the effective implementation of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation initiatives. Such evaluation is often a challenging task, especially for countries that have to cope with a critical lack of data and capacities, higher uncertainties, and competing interests. We present a new modeling approach that makes use of available and easily accessible data sources to predict the spatial location of future deforestation. This approach is based on the Random Forest algorithm, which is a machine learning technique that enables evidence-based, data-driven decisions and is therefore often used in decision-making processes. Our objective is to provide a straightforward modeling approach that, without requiring cost-intensive assessments, can be applied in the early stages of REDD+, for a stepwise implementation approach of REDD+ projects in regions with limited availability of data, capital, technical infrastructure, or human capacities. The presented model focuses on building business-as-usual scenarios to identify and rank potentially suitable areas for REDD+ interventions. For validation purposes we applied the model to data from Nicaragua.

  4. Potential for producing bio-fuel in the Amazon deforested areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Ricardo Cunha da [Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Economico e Social (BNDES), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-05-01

    This paper analyzes the possibility of producing bio-fuel in the Amazon degraded lands. The aim here is to combine environmental concerns with an improvement of local people well-being. Firstly, a historical analysis is conducted in order to figure out the major deforestation driving forces in Amazon and to help to arrive at a feasible energy choice. Secondly, the geographical area is chosen. It is the spatial boundaries of Carajas Iron Ore Program in the southeastern Amazon where most of the deforestation has taken place in the last few decades. For this specific context, palm oil is chosen as a technological energy alternative due to its social production structure, its environmental benefits and its productivity . A quantified analysis is realized in terms of income generation (2000-3000 US dollars/family/yr), job creation (200,000-300,000 families settled), land required and restored (2-3.2 million ha), and carbon emission from fossil fuel avoided (13.1 Mt C). Some recommendations related to institutional and economic barriers are proposed in order to encourage the technology penetration in the market. (Author)

  5. Real time deforestation detection using ann and satellite images the Amazon rainforest study case

    CERN Document Server

    Nunes Kehl, Thiago; Roberto Veronez, Maurício; Cesar Cazella, Silvio

    2015-01-01

    The foremost aim of the present study was the development of a tool to detect daily deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, using satellite images from the MODIS/TERRA sensor and Artificial Neural Networks. The developed tool provides parameterization of the configuration for the neural network training to enable us to select the best neural architecture to address the problem. The tool makes use of confusion matrices to determine the degree of success of the network. A spectrum-temporal analysis of the study area was done on 57 images from May 20 to July 15, 2003 using the trained neural network. The analysis enabled verification of quality of the implemented neural network classification and also aided in understanding the dynamics of deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, thereby highlighting the vast potential of neural networks for image classification. However, the complex task of detection of predatory actions at the beginning, i.e., generation of consistent alarms, instead of false alarms has not bee...

  6. Cartographic modeling of heterogeneous landscape for footprint analysis of Eddy Covariance Measurements (Central Forest and Central Chernozem reserves, Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Daniil

    2014-05-01

    The topographical, soil and vegetation maps of FLUXNET study areas are widely used for interpretation of eddy covariance measurements, for calibration of biogeochemical models and for making regional assessments of carbon balance. The poster presents methodological problems and results of ecosystem mapping using GIS, remote sensing, statistical and field methods on the example of two RusFluxNet sites in the Central Forest (33° E, 56°30'N) and Central Chernozem (36°10' E, 51°36'N) reserves. In the Central Forest reserve tacheometric measurements were used for topographical and peat surveys of bogged sphagnum spruce forest of 20-hectare area. Its common borders and its areas affected by windfall were determined. The supplies and spatial distribution of organic matter were obtained. The datasets of groundwater monitoring measurements on ten wells were compared with each other and the analysis of spatial and temporal groundwater variability was performed. The map of typical ecosystems of the reserve and its surroundings was created on the basis of analysis of multi-temporal Landsat images. In the Central Chernozem reserve the GNSS topographical survey was used for flux tower footprint mapping (22 ha). The features of microrelief predetermine development of different soils within the footprint. Close relationship between soil (73 drilling site) and terrain attributes (DEM with 2.5 m) allowed to build maps of soils and soil properties: carbon content, bulk density, upper boundary of secondary carbonates. Position for chamber-based soil respiration measurements was defined on the basis of these maps. The detailed geodetic and soil surveys of virgin lands and plowland were performed in order to estimate the effect of agrogenic processes such as dehumification, compaction and erosion on soils during the whole period of agricultural use of Central Chernozem reserve area and around. The choice of analogous soils was based on the similarity of their position within the

  7. Changes in determinants of deforestation and forest degradation in Popa Mountain Park, Central Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Htun, Naing Zaw; Mizoue, Nobuya; Yoshida, Shigejiro

    2013-02-01

    Implementing effective conservation requires an understanding of factors affecting deforestation and forest degradation. Previous studies have investigated factors affecting deforestation, while few studies have examined the determinants of both of deforestation and forest degradation for more than one period. To address this gap, this study examined factors influencing deforestation and forest degradation during 1989-2000 and 2000-2005 in the Popa Mountain Park, Myanmar. We applied multinomial logistic regression (MNL) using land cover maps derived from Landsat images as the dependent variables as well as spatial and biophysical factors as the independent variables. The MNL models revealed influences of the determinants on deforestation and forest degradation changes over time. For example, during 1989-2000, deforestation from closed forest was positively correlated to the distance from the park boundary and was negatively correlated with distance from villages, roads, the park circular road, slope, western aspect and elevation. On the other hand, during 2000-2005, deforestation of closed forest was positively correlated with distance from villages, roads, the park circular road, slope and western aspect, and negatively correlated with distance from the park boundary and elevation. Similar scenarios were observed for the deforestation of open forest and forest degradation of closed forest. The study also found most of the determinants influenced deforestation and forest degradation differently. The changes in determinants of deforestation and forest degradation over time might be attributable to the general decrease in resource availability and to the effect of conservation measures conducted by the park.

  8. Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Genovese, V.

    2009-01-01

    A simulation model based on satellite observations of monthly vegetation greenness from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was used to estimate monthly carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems of Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado regions over the period 2000-2002. The NASA-CASA (Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach) model estimates of annual forest production were used for the first time as the basis to generate a prediction for the standing pool of carbon in above-ground biomass (AGB; gC/sq m) for forested areas of the Brazilian Amazon region. Plot-level measurements of the residence time of carbon in wood in Amazon forest from Malhi et al. (2006) were interpolated by inverse distance weighting algorithms and used with CASA to generate a new regional map of AGB. Data from the Brazilian PRODES (Estimativa do Desflorestamento da Amazonia) project were used to map deforested areas. Results show that net primary production (NPP) sinks for carbon varied between 4.25 Pg C/yr (1 Pg=10(exp 15)g) and 4.34 Pg C for the region and were highest across the eastern and northern Amazon areas, whereas deforestation sources of CO2 flux from decomposition of residual woody debris were higher and less seasonal in the central Amazon than in the eastern and southern areas. Increased woody debris from past deforestation events was predicted to alter the net ecosystem carbon balance of the Amazon region to generate annual CO2 source fluxes at least two times higher than previously predicted by CASA modeling studies. Variations in climate, land cover, and forest burning were predicted to release carbon at rates of 0.5 to 1 Pg C/yr from the Brazilian Amazon. When direct deforestation emissions of CO2 from forest burning of between 0.2 and 0.6 Pg C/yr in the Legal Amazon are overlooked in regional budgets, the year-to-year variations in this net biome flux may appear to be large, whereas our model results implies net biome fluxes had actually been relatively consistent from

  9. Detecting of forest afforestation and deforestation in Hainan Jianfengling Forest Park (China) using yearly Landsat time-series images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Quanjun; Zhang, Xiao; Sun, Qi

    2018-03-01

    The availability of dense time series of Landsat images pro-vides a great chance to reconstruct forest disturbance and change history with high temporal resolution, medium spatial resolution and long period. This proposal aims to apply forest change detection method in Hainan Jianfengling Forest Park using yearly Landsat time-series images. A simple detection method from the dense time series Landsat NDVI images will be used to reconstruct forest change history (afforestation and deforestation). The mapping result showed a large decrease occurred in the extent of closed forest from 1980s to 1990s. From the beginning of the 21st century, we found an increase in forest areas with the implementation of forestry measures such as the prohibition of cutting and sealing in our study area. Our findings provide an effective approach for quickly detecting forest changes in tropical original forest, especially for afforestation and deforestation, and a comprehensive analysis tool for forest resource protection.

  10. The impact of unilateral oophorectomy on ovarian reserve in assisted reproduction: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younis, J S; Naoum, I; Salem, N; Perlitz, Y; Izhaki, I

    2018-01-01

    Women following unilateral oophorectomy (UO) are occasionally encountered during assisted reproduction treatment. To explore the impact of UO on ovarian reserve in assisted reproduction. An electronic database search was performed using PubMed, EBSCO, ISI, Trip, ClinicalTrial.gov and the Cochrane library followed by a manual search to identify published research between January 1978 and December 2015. Controlled studies that compared infertile women following UO undergoing IVF-ET treatment with women with two intact ovaries. Two reviewers independently extracted the data concerning the impact of UO on ovarian reserve tests, ovarian response to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation and clinical pregnancy rate. Meta-analysis was performed using these measures. Twenty-one studies were eligible for quantitative analysis. They included 1045 and 18 172 IVF cycles in women with one and two intact ovaries, respectively. Basal FSH weighted mean difference (WMD) was significant (2.01 IU/l; 95% CI: 0.24-3.79, P = 0.026). Similarly, the WMD of serum E 2 level on the day of hCG administration was significant (WMD: -431 pg/ml; 95% CI: -616 to -246, P < 0.001). However, the weighted overall odds ratio (OR) of clinical pregnancy between women with a single ovary and women with two ovaries was comparable (overall OR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.57-1.00, P = 0.054). All eligible studies were retrospectively conducted and the heterogeneity among ovarian response measures was high. Available pooled data supports an adverse effect of UO on ovarian reserve involving the quantity but not the quality of the ovarian pool. Review finds women with one ovary removed have less IVF capacity but the same pregnancy rate as women with two ovaries. © 2017 Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.

  11. Evidence disputing deforestation as the cause for the collapse of the ancient Maya polity of Copan, Honduras

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeil, Cameron L.; Burney, David A.; Burney, Lida Pigott

    2009-01-01

    Archaeologists have proposed diverse hypotheses to explain the collapse of the southern Maya lowland cities between the 8th and 10th centuries A.D. Although it generally is believed that no single factor was responsible, a commonly accepted cause is environmental degradation as a product of large-scale deforestation. To date, the most compelling scientific evidence used to support this hypothesis comes from the archaeological site of Copan, Honduras, where the analysis of a sediment core suggested a dramatic increase in forest clearance in the Late Classic period (A.D. 600–900). By contrast, in the work presented here, the authors’ analysis of a longer sediment core demonstrates that forest cover increased from A.D. 400 to A.D. 900, with arboreal pollen accounting for 59.8–71.0% of the pollen assemblage by approximately A.D. 780–980. The highest levels of deforestation are found about 900 B.C. when, at its peak, herb pollen made up 89.8% of the assemblage. A second, although less pronounced, period of elevated deforestation peaked at approximately A.D. 400 when herb pollen reached 65.3% of the assemblage. The first deforestation event likely coincided with the widespread adoption of agriculture, a pattern found elsewhere in Mesoamerica. The second period of forest clearance probably was associated with the incursion of Maya speakers into the Copan Valley and their subsequent construction of the earliest levels of the Copan Acropolis. These results refute the former hypothesis that the ancient Maya responded to their increasingly large urban population by exhausting, rather than conserving, natural resources. PMID:20018691

  12. Deforestation and forest management in southern Ethiopia: investigations in the Chencha and Arbaminch areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assefa, Engdawork; Bork, Hans-Rudolf

    2014-02-01

    Long-term human impacts are considered to be the prime cause of unsustainable forest exploitation in Ethiopia. Yet there exist well-established systems and a wealth of local experience in maintaining and managing forests. This study explores the trends and driving forces of deforestation plus traditional practices regarding sustainable forest use and management in the Chencha and Arbaminch areas, Southern Ethiopia. Satellite image analysis (images from 1972, 1984 and 2006) combined with field surveys were used to detect and map changes in forest cover. Household interviews and group discussions with experienced and knowledgeable persons were also employed. The results show a 23 % decline in forest cover between 1972 and 2006 with the most significant change from 1986 to 2006. Change was greatest in the lowlands and remarkable episodic forest changes also occurred, suggesting nonlinear spatial and temporal forest cover dynamics. According to farmers, the main driver of deforestation is agricultural land expansion in response to local population increases and a decline in agricultural production. Growing local and regional fuel wood demand is another chief cause. Despite these issues, remarkable relicts of natural forests remain and trees on farmland, around homesteads and on fields in every village are basic elements of farm activities and social systems. This demonstrates the effect of cumulative traditional knowledge and long-term local experience with forest management and preservation. Therefore, these practices should be promoted and advanced through the integration of local knowledge and forest management practices in the design and implementation of sustainable environmental planning and management.

  13. Effects of Deforestation and Forest Degradation on Forest Carbon Stocks in Collaborative Forests, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ram Asheshwar MANDAL

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available There are some key drivers that favor deforestation and forest degradation. Consequently, levels of carbon stock are affected in different parts of same forest types. But the problem lies in exploring the extent of the effects on level of carbon stocking. This paper highlights the variations in levels of carbon stocks in three different collaborative forests of same forest type i.e. tropical sal (Shorea robusta forest in Mahottari district of the central Terai in Nepal. Three collaborative forests namely Gadhanta-Bardibas Collaborative Forest (CFM, Tuteshwarnath CFM and Banke- Maraha CFM were selected for research site. Interview and workshops were organized with the key informants that include staffs, members and representatives of CFMs to collect the socio-economic data and stratified random sampling was applied to collect the bio-physical data to calculate the carbon stocks. Analysis was carried out using statistical tools. It was found five major drivers namely grazing, fire, logging, growth of invasive species and encroachment. It was found highest carbon 269.36 ton per ha in Gadhanta- Bardibash CFM. The findings showed that the levels of carbon stocks in the three studied CFMs are different depending on how the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation influence over them.

  14. Cash for carbon: A randomized trial of payments for ecosystem services to reduce deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayachandran, Seema; de Laat, Joost; Lambin, Eric F; Stanton, Charlotte Y; Audy, Robin; Thomas, Nancy E

    2017-07-21

    We evaluated a program of payments for ecosystem services in Uganda that offered forest-owning households annual payments of 70,000 Ugandan shillings per hectare if they conserved their forest. The program was implemented as a randomized controlled trial in 121 villages, 60 of which received the program for 2 years. The primary outcome was the change in land area covered by trees, measured by classifying high-resolution satellite imagery. We found that tree cover declined by 4.2% during the study period in treatment villages, compared to 9.1% in control villages. We found no evidence that enrollees shifted their deforestation to nearby land. We valued the delayed carbon dioxide emissions and found that this program benefit is 2.4 times as large as the program costs. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  15. Deforestation in the Amazon: What is illegal and what is not?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antônio Carlos Hummel

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Brazil has succeeded in reducing deforestation rates in the Amazon, but has not succeeded in explaining to the general public how much of this deforestation was illegal and how much was legally authorized. Transparency of deforestation data is limited, and pertinent legislation is little understood and poorly applied in practice. Lack of dissemination of information on authorized clearing of vegetation and lack of implementation of regulatory frameworks are contentious issues when defining strategies to reach zero deforestation in the Amazon region and for building policies related to climate change mitigation. The need to establish the new Forest Code provides an opportunity to establish goals and regulations for zero deforestation. This paper provides recommendations on how to communicate this information to the general public, how to make regulatory instruments effective and how to implement a zero deforestation agenda.

  16. Deforestation and Vectorial Capacity of Anopheles gambiae Giles Mosquitoes in Malaria Transmission, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afrane, Yaw A.; Little, Tom J.; Lawson, Bernard W.; Githeko, Andrew K.

    2008-01-01

    We investigated the effects of deforestation on microclimates and sporogonic development of Plasmodium falciparum parasites in Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes in an area of the western Kenyan highland prone to malaria epidemics. An. gambiae mosquitoes were fed with P. falciparum–infected blood through membrane feeders. Fed mosquitoes were placed in houses in forested and deforested areas in a highland area (1,500 m above sea level) and monitored for parasite development. Deforested sites had higher temperatures and relative humidities, and the overall infection rate of mosquitoes was increased compared with that in forested sites. Sporozoites appeared on average 1.1 days earlier in deforested areas. Vectorial capacity was estimated to be 77.7% higher in the deforested site than in the forested site. We showed that deforestation changes microclimates, leading to more rapid sporogonic development of P. falciparum and to a marked increase of malaria risk in the western Kenyan highland. PMID:18826815

  17. Tropical protected areas reduced deforestation carbon emissions by one third from 2000-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebber, Daniel P; Butt, Nathalie

    2017-10-25

    Tropical deforestation is responsible for around one tenth of total anthropogenic carbon emissions, and tropical protected areas (PAs) that reduce deforestation can therefore play an important role in mitigating climate change and protecting biodiversity and ecosystem services. While the effectiveness of PAs in reducing deforestation has been estimated, the impact on global carbon emissions remains unquantified. Here we show that tropical PAs overall reduced deforestation carbon emissions by 4.88 Pg, or around 29%, between 2000 and 2012, when compared to expected rates of deforestation controlling for spatial variation in deforestation pressure. The largest contribution was from the tropical Americas (368.8 GgC y -1 ), followed by Asia (25.0 GgC y -1 ) and Africa (12.7 GgC y -1 ). Variation in PA effectiveness is largely driven by local factors affecting individual PAs, rather than designations assigned by governments.

  18. Effectiveness of China's National Forest Protection Program and nature reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guopeng; Young, Stephen S; Wang, Lin; Wang, Wei; Long, Yongcheng; Wu, Ruidong; Li, Junsheng; Zhu, Jianguo; Yu, Douglas W

    2015-10-01

    There is profound interest in knowing the degree to which China's institutions are capable of protecting its natural forests and biodiversity in the face of economic and political change. China's 2 most important forest-protection policies are its National Forest Protection Program (NFPP) and its national-level nature reserves (NNRs). The NFPP was implemented in 2000 in response to deforestation-caused flooding. We undertook the first national, quantitative assessment of the NFPP and NNRs to examine whether the NFPP achieved its deforestation-reduction target and whether the NNRs deter deforestation altogether. We used MODIS data to estimate forest cover and loss across mainland China (2000-2010). We also assembled the first-ever polygon dataset for China's forested NNRs (n = 237, 74,030 km(2) in 2000) and used both conventional and covariate-matching approaches to compare deforestation rates inside and outside NNRs (2000-2010). In 2000, 1.765 million km(2) or 18.7% of mainland China was forested (12.3% with canopy cover of ≥70%)) or woodland (6.4% with canopy cover <70% and tree plus shrub cover ≥40%). By 2010, 480,203 km(2) of forest and woodland had been lost, an annual deforestation rate of 2.7%. Forest-only loss was 127,473 km(2) (1.05% annually). In the NFPP provinces, the forest-only loss rate was 0.62%, which was 3.3 times lower than in the non-NFPP provinces. Moreover, the Landsat data suggest that these loss rates are overestimates due to large MODIS pixel size. Thus, China appears to have achieved, and even exceeded, its target of reducing deforestation to 1.1% annually in the NFPP provinces. About two-thirds of China's NNRs were effective in protecting forest cover (prevented loss 4073 km(2) unmatched approach; 3148 km(2) matched approach), and within-NNR deforestation rates were higher in provinces with higher overall deforestation. Our results indicate that China's existing institutions can protect domestic forest cover. © 2015 The Authors

  19. Human Migration and Agricultural Expansion: An Impending Threat to the Maya Biosphere Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sader, Steven; Reining, Conard; Sever, Thomas L.; Soza, Carlos

    1997-01-01

    Evidence is presented of the current threats to the Maya Biosphere Reserve in northern Guatemala as derived through time-series Landsat Thematic Mapper observations and analysis. Estimates of deforestation rates and trends are examined for different management units within the reserve and buffer zones. The satellite imagery was used to quantify and monitor rates, patterns, and trends of forest clearing during a time period corresponding to new road construction and significant human migration into the newly accessible forest region. Satellite imagery is appropriate technology in a vast and remote tropical region where aerial photography and extensive field-based methods are not cost-effective and current, timely data is essential for establishing conservation priorities.

  20. Preliminary screening analysis of the off-site environment downstream of the US Department of Energy Oak Ridge Reservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, B.G.; Hoffman, F.O.; Frank, M.L.

    1990-01-01

    Operations and waste disposal activities at the Y-12 Plant, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and the Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant (ORGDP), located on the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) in eastern Tennessee, have introduced airborne, liquid, and solid wastes into the surrounding environment. Some of these wastes may affect off-site areas by entering local streams that ultimately drain into the Clinch River. Previously reported concentrations of radionuclides, metals, and organic compounds in water, sediment, and biota of the Clinch River and Watts Bar Reservoir suggest the presence of contaminants of possible concern to the protection of human health and the environment. A preliminary screening was conducted of contaminants in the off-site surface water environments downstream of the DOE ORR. This screening analysis represents part of a scoping phase of the Clinch River Resource Conservation and Recovery Facilities Investigation (CRRFI). The purpose of this preliminary screening analysis is to use existing data on off-site contaminant concentrations to identify and prioritize potential contaminants of concern for further evaluation and investigation. The primary objective of this screening analysis is to ensure that CRRFI sampling and analysis efforts focus on those contaminants that may possibly contribute to human health or environmental risk. 8 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

  1. Measuring the Initial Impacts on Deforestation of Mato Grosso's Program for Environmental Control

    OpenAIRE

    Chomitz, Kenneth M.; Wertz-Kanounnikoff, Sheila

    2005-01-01

    Although private forest use in Brazil has been regulated at least since the Forest Code of 1965, cumulative deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon reached 653,000 km2 by 2003 (INPE 2004). Much of this deforestation is illegal. In 1999, the State Foundation of the Environment (FEMA) in Mato Grosso introduced an innovative licensing and enforcement system to increase compliance with land use regulations. If successful, the program would deter deforestation that contravenes those regulations, inc...

  2. Comparison of Sampling Designs for Estimating Deforestation from Landsat TM and MODIS Imagery: A Case Study in Mato Grosso, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanyou Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Sampling designs are commonly used to estimate deforestation over large areas, but comparisons between different sampling strategies are required. Using PRODES deforestation data as a reference, deforestation in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil from 2005 to 2006 is evaluated using Landsat imagery and a nearly synchronous MODIS dataset. The MODIS-derived deforestation is used to assist in sampling and extrapolation. Three sampling designs are compared according to the estimated deforestation of the entire study area based on simple extrapolation and linear regression models. The results show that stratified sampling for strata construction and sample allocation using the MODIS-derived deforestation hotspots provided more precise estimations than simple random and systematic sampling. Moreover, the relationship between the MODIS-derived and TM-derived deforestation provides a precise estimate of the total deforestation area as well as the distribution of deforestation in each block.

  3. Comparison of sampling designs for estimating deforestation from landsat TM and MODIS imagery: a case study in Mato Grosso, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Shanyou; Zhang, Hailong; Liu, Ronggao; Cao, Yun; Zhang, Guixin

    2014-01-01

    Sampling designs are commonly used to estimate deforestation over large areas, but comparisons between different sampling strategies are required. Using PRODES deforestation data as a reference, deforestation in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil from 2005 to 2006 is evaluated using Landsat imagery and a nearly synchronous MODIS dataset. The MODIS-derived deforestation is used to assist in sampling and extrapolation. Three sampling designs are compared according to the estimated deforestation of the entire study area based on simple extrapolation and linear regression models. The results show that stratified sampling for strata construction and sample allocation using the MODIS-derived deforestation hotspots provided more precise estimations than simple random and systematic sampling. Moreover, the relationship between the MODIS-derived and TM-derived deforestation provides a precise estimate of the total deforestation area as well as the distribution of deforestation in each block.

  4. Changing patterns in deforestation avoidance by different protection types in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jusys, Tomas

    2018-01-01

    This study quantifies how much deforestation was avoided due to legal protection in Legal Amazon in strictly protected areas, sustainable use areas, and indigenous lands. Only regions that are protected de jure (i.e., where deforestation is avoided due to effective laws rather than remoteness) were considered, so that the potential of legal protection could be better assessed. This is a cross-sectional approach, which allows comparisons in terms of avoided deforestation among the different types of protection in the same period. This study covers three different periods. Regions protected de jure were sampled by estimating a threshold distance at which deforestation starts to diminish and retaining all pixels up to that distance, and deforestation that has been avoided due to legal protection was estimated by matching. Indigenous lands avoided the highest percentage of deforestation during the 2001-2004 and 2005-2008 periods, followed by those under strict protection and sustainable use areas, in respective order. Shifting patterns in deforestation avoidance are clearly noticeable for the 2009-2014 period when 1) strictly protected areas outperformed indigenous lands in terms of the percentage of saved forests, 2) some protected regions began to attract deforestation instead of avoiding it, and 3) sustainable use areas, on average, did not avoid deforestation.

  5. Brazilian Amazon Roads and Parks: Temporal & Spatial Deforestation Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfaff, A.; Robalino, J.

    2011-12-01

    Heterogeneous Forest Impacts of Transport Infrastructure: spatial frontier dynamics & impacts of Brazilian Amazon road changes Prior research on road impacts has almost completely ignored heterogeneity of impacts and as a result both empirically understated potential impact and missed policy potential. We note von Thunen's model suggests not only heterogeneity with distance from market but also specifically road impacts rising then falling with distance ('non-monoThunicity') Endogenous development and partial adjustment dynamics support this for the short run. Causal effects result from studying Brazilian Amazon deforestation (1976-87, 2000-04) using matching for short-run responses to lagged new roads changes (1968-75, 1985-00). We show the critical role of prior development, proxied by 1968 and 1985 road distances, for which exact matching addresses development trends and transforms impact estimates. Splitting the sample on this measure finds confirmation of the nonmonotonic predictions: new road impacts are relatively low if a prior road was close, such that prior transport access and endogenous development dynamics compete with the new road for influence, but also if a prior road was far, since first-decade adjustment in pristine areas is limited; yet in between these bounds, investments immediately raise deforestation significantly. This pattern helps to explain lower estimates within research on a single average impact. It suggests potential for REDD if a country chooses to shift its spatial transport networks. Protected Areas & Brazilian Amazon Deforestation: modeling and testing the impacts of varied PA strategies We model and then estimate the impacts of multiple types of protected areas upon 2000 - 2004 deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Our modeling starts with federal versus state objectives and predicts differences in both choice and implementation of each PA strategy that we examine. Our empirical examination brings not only breakdowns sufficient

  6. Structuring economic incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation within Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Jonah; Lubowski, Ruben N; Godoy, Fabiano; Steininger, Marc; Yusuf, Arief A; Austin, Kemen; Hewson, Jenny; Juhn, Daniel; Farid, Muhammad; Boltz, Frederick

    2012-01-24

    We estimate and map the impacts that alternative national and subnational economic incentive structures for reducing emissions from deforestation (REDD+) in Indonesia would have had on greenhouse gas emissions and national and local revenue if they had been in place from 2000 to 2005. The impact of carbon payments on deforestation is calibrated econometrically from the pattern of observed deforestation and spatial variation in the benefits and costs of converting land to agriculture over that time period. We estimate that at an international carbon price of $10/tCO(2)e, a "mandatory incentive structure," such as a cap-and-trade or symmetric tax-and-subsidy program, would have reduced emissions by 163-247 MtCO(2)e/y (20-31% below the without-REDD+ reference scenario), while generating a programmatic budget surplus. In contrast, a "basic voluntary incentive structure" modeled after a standard payment-for-environmental-services program would have reduced emissions nationally by only 45-76 MtCO(2)e/y (6-9%), while generating a programmatic budget shortfall. By making four policy improvements--paying for net emission reductions at the scale of an entire district rather than site-by-site; paying for reductions relative to reference levels that match business-as-usual levels; sharing a portion of district-level revenues with the national government; and sharing a portion of the national government's responsibility for costs with districts--an "improved voluntary incentive structure" would have been nearly as effective as a mandatory incentive structure, reducing emissions by 136-207 MtCO(2)e/y (17-26%) and generating a programmatic budget surplus.

  7. Mercury release from deforested soils triggered by base cation enrichment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farella, N.; Lucotte, M.; Davidson, R.; Daigle, S.

    2006-01-01

    The Brazilian Amazon has experienced considerable colonization in the last few decades. Family agriculture based on slash-and-burn enables millions of people to live in that region. However, the poor nutrient content of most Amazonian soils requires cation-rich ashes from the burning of the vegetation biomass for cultivation to be successful, which leads to forest ecosystem degradation, soil erosion and mercury contamination. While recent studies have suggested that mercury present in soils was transferred towards rivers upon deforestation, little is known about the dynamics between agricultural land-use and mercury leaching. In this context, the present study proposes an explanation that illustrates how agricultural land-use triggers mercury loss from soils. This explanation lies in the competition between base cations and mercury in soils which are characterized by a low adsorption capacity. Since these soils are naturally very poor in base cations, the burning of the forest biomass suddenly brings high quantities of base cations to soils, destabilizing the previous equilibrium amongst cations. Base cation enrichment triggers mobility in soil cations, rapidly dislocating mercury atoms. This conclusion comes from principal component analyses illustrating that agricultural land-use was associated with base cation enrichment and mercury depletion. The overall conclusions highlight a pernicious cycle: while soil nutrient enrichment actually occurs through biomass burning, although on a temporary basis, there is a loss in Hg content, which is leached to rivers, entering the aquatic chain, and posing a potential health threat to local populations. Data presented here reflects three decades of deforestation activities, but little is known about the long-term impact of such a disequilibrium. These findings may have repercussions on our understanding of the complex dynamics of deforestation and agriculture worldwide

  8. Structuring economic incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation within Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Jonah; Lubowski, Ruben N.; Godoy, Fabiano; Steininger, Marc; Yusuf, Arief A.; Austin, Kemen; Hewson, Jenny; Juhn, Daniel; Farid, Muhammad; Boltz, Frederick

    2012-01-01

    We estimate and map the impacts that alternative national and subnational economic incentive structures for reducing emissions from deforestation (REDD+) in Indonesia would have had on greenhouse gas emissions and national and local revenue if they had been in place from 2000 to 2005. The impact of carbon payments on deforestation is calibrated econometrically from the pattern of observed deforestation and spatial variation in the benefits and costs of converting land to agriculture over that time period. We estimate that at an international carbon price of $10/tCO2e, a “mandatory incentive structure,” such as a cap-and-trade or symmetric tax-and-subsidy program, would have reduced emissions by 163–247 MtCO2e/y (20–31% below the without-REDD+ reference scenario), while generating a programmatic budget surplus. In contrast, a “basic voluntary incentive structure” modeled after a standard payment-for-environmental-services program would have reduced emissions nationally by only 45–76 MtCO2e/y (6–9%), while generating a programmatic budget shortfall. By making four policy improvements—paying for net emission reductions at the scale of an entire district rather than site-by-site; paying for reductions relative to reference levels that match business-as-usual levels; sharing a portion of district-level revenues with the national government; and sharing a portion of the national government's responsibility for costs with districts—an “improved voluntary incentive structure” would have been nearly as effective as a mandatory incentive structure, reducing emissions by 136–207 MtCO2e/y (17–26%) and generating a programmatic budget surplus. PMID:22232665

  9. The dynamical interactions of Amazon deforestation, intensification of cattle ranching and technology adoption: insights from a socio-ecological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Heitzig, Jobst; Donges, Jonathan F.; Cardoso, Manoel F.; Kurths, Jürgen; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2017-04-01

    . While most agent-based models in land science are developed for small study regions, our approach is scalable also to regional levels and for this purpose abstracts from many local specificities. In the proposed model, a collection of cattle ranchers interacts with the local environment via decisions to convert forest into pasture land and manage this pasture. Deforestation and land abandonment is traced by simple land-cover succession equations and ecological dynamics consider the evolution of pasture productivity depending on pasture management, deforestation and tree regrowth. Agent decisions are captured by heuristic strategies depending on economic and ecological constraints. Agents can follow either an extensive strategy, corresponding to traditional cattle ranching with fallow periods and slash-and-burn fertilization, or an intensive strategy, i.e. cattle ranching with high inputs such as machinery and industrial fertilizers. The choice of the production strategy is modeled as a social learning process: Agents are located on a geometric network representing neighborhood and acquaintance relations and imitate the successful strategies of their neighbors. We will present a comprehensive analysis of the model and discuss conditions that foster sustainable land use. Finally, we will give an outlook at possible extensions of the model and applications to issues such as compliance with Brazil's Forest Code and feedbacks from changes in climate. References: [1] Kaimowitz, David and Arild Angelsen (2008). "Will Livestock Intensification Help Save Latin America's Tropical Forests?" In: Journal of Sustainable Forestry 27.1-2, pp. 6-24. [2] Cohn, Avery S, Aline Mosnier, Petr Havlík, Hugo Valin, Mario Herrero, Erwin Schmid, Michael O'Hare, and Michael Obersteiner (2014). "Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation." In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

  10. Effects of coffee management on deforestation rates and forest integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hylander, Kristoffer; Nemomissa, Sileshi; Delrue, Josefien; Enkosa, Woldeyohannes

    2013-10-01

    Knowledge about how forest margins are utilized can be crucial for a general understanding of changes in forest cover, forest structure, and biodiversity across landscapes. We studied forest-agriculture transitions in southwestern Ethiopia and hypothesized that the presence of coffee (Coffea arabica)decreases deforestation rates because of coffee's importance to local economies and its widespread occurrence in forests and forest margins. Using satellite images and elevation data, we compared changes in forest cover over 37 years (1973-2010) across elevations in 2 forest-agriculture mosaic landscapes (1100 km(2) around Bonga and 3000 km(2) in Goma-Gera). In the field in the Bonga area, we determined coffee cover and forest structure in 40 forest margins that differed in time since deforestation. Both the absolute and relative deforestation rates were lower at coffee-growing elevations compared with at higher elevations (-10/20% vs. -40/50% comparing relative rates at 1800 m asl and 2300-2500 m asl, respectively). Within the coffee-growing elevation, the proportion of sites with high coffee cover (>20%) was significantly higher in stable margins (42% of sites that had been in the same location for the entire period) than in recently changed margins (0% of sites where expansion of annual crops had changed the margin). Disturbance level and forest structure did not differ between sites with 30% or 3% coffee. However, a growing body of literature on gradients of coffee management in Ethiopia reports coffee's negative effects on abundances of forest-specialist species. Even if the presence of coffee slows down the conversion of forest to annual-crop agriculture, there is a risk that an intensification of coffee management will still threaten forest biodiversity, including the genetic diversity of wild coffee. Conservation policy for Ethiopian forests thus needs to develop strategies that acknowledge that forests without coffee production may have higher deforestation

  11. Family Life Cycle and Deforestation in Amazonia: Combining Remotely Sensed Information with Primary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caldas, M.; Walker, R. T.; Shirota, R.; Perz, S.; Skole, D.

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines the relationships between the socio-demographic characteristics of small settlers in the Brazilian Amazon and the life cycle hypothesis in the process of deforestation. The analysis was conducted combining remote sensing and geographic data with primary data of 153 small settlers along the TransAmazon Highway. Regression analyses and spatial autocorrelation tests were conducted. The results from the empirical model indicate that socio-demographic characteristics of households as well as institutional and market factors, affect the land use decision. Although remotely sensed information is not very popular among Brazilian social scientists, these results confirm that they can be very useful for this kind of study. Furthermore, the research presented by this paper strongly indicates that family and socio-demographic data, as well as market data, may result in misspecification problems. The same applies to models that do not incorporate spatial analysis.

  12. Attribution of CO2 emissions from Brazilian deforestation to domestic and international drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karstensen, J.; Peters, G.

    2011-12-01

    Efforts to address extensive deforestation to reduce climate change and save primary forests are taking place on a global scale. Whilst several studies have estimated the emissions occurring from deforestation in large rainforests, few studies have investigated the domestic and international drivers sustaining and increasing the deforestation rates. Brazil, having the largest rainforest in the world and one of the highest deforestation rates, is also currently one of the world's largest exporters of soybeans and beef. In this case study we establish the link between Brazilian deforestation and cattle and soybean production, and further attribute emissions to countries and economic sectors through export and import of Brazilian commodities. The emissions from deforestation can therefore be allocated to the countries and sectors consuming goods and services produced on deforested land in Brazil. A land-use change model and deforestation data is coupled with a carbon cycle model to create yearly emission estimates and different emission allocation schemes, depending on emission amortizations and discounting functions for past deforestation. We use an economic multi-regional input-output model (with 112 regions and 57 sectors) to distribute these emissions along agricultural trade routes, through domestic and international consumption in 2004. With our implementation we find that around 80 % of emissions from deforested land is due to cattle grazing, while agricultural transition effects suggests soy beans are responsible for about 20 % of the emissions occurring in 2004. Nearly tree quarters of the soy beans are consumed outside Brazil, of which China, Germany and France are the biggest consumers. Soy beans are consumed by a variety of sectors in the food industry. Brazil exports about 30 % of the cattle it produces, where Russia, USA and Germany are among the largest consumers. Cattle consumption mainly occurs in the meat sectors. In this study we estimate the CO2

  13. A review of wildlife tourism and meta-analysis of parasitism in Africa's national parks and game reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odeniran, Paul Olalekan; Ademola, Isaiah Oluwafemi; Jegede, Henry Olanrewaju

    2018-06-14

    The recent increase of parasitic diseases associated with wildlife tourism can be traced to human contact with wildlife and intense modification of wildlife habitat. The continental estimates of parasitic diseases among visited wildlife-tourists and mammalian wildlife present in conservation areas are lacking; therefore, a general review was necessary to provide insights into Africa's parasitic disease burden and transmission between humans and wildlife. A two-step analysis was conducted with searches in Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, PubMed, Web of Science and Global Health. All diseases reported without prevalence were grouped and analysed as categorical data while meta-analysis of prevalence rates of parasitic diseases in wildlife from national parks and reserves in Africa was conducted. Only 4.7% of the tourist centres reported routine wildlife diagnosis for parasitic diseases. Disease intensity shows that cryptosporidiosis and seven other parasitic diseases were observed in both human and wildlife; however, no significant difference in intensity between human and wildlife hosts was observed. Schistosomiasis intensity reports showed a significant increase (P tourism. Pre- and post-travel clinical examinations are important for tourists while routine examination, treatment and rational surveillance are important for these animals to improve wildlife tourism.

  14. Diets of nesting laughing gulls (Larus atricilla) at the Virginia Coast Reserve: observations from stable isotope analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knoff, A.J.; Macko, S.A.; Erwin, R.M.

    2001-01-01

    Food web studies often ignore details of temporal, spatial, and intrapopulation dietary variation in top-level consumers. In this study, intrapopulation dietary variation of a dominant carnivore, the Laughing Gull (Larus atricilla), was examined using carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur isotope analysis of gull tissues as well as their prey (fish, invertebrates, and insects) from the Virginia Coast Reserve estuarine system. As earlier traditional diet studies found evidence of individual dietary specialization within gull populations, this study used stable isotope analysis to assess specialization in a coastal Laughing Gull population. Specifically, blood, muscle, and feather isotope values indicated significant intrapopulation dietary specialization. Some gulls relied more heavily on estuarine prey (mean blood δ13C = -17.5, δ15N = 12.6, and δ34S = 9.3), whereas others appeared to consume more foods of marine origin (mean blood δ13C = -19.4, δ15N = 14.8, and δ34S = 10.4). It is important to account for such dietary variability when assessing trophic linkages in dynamic estuarine systems.

  15. The Impact of Objective Mathematical Analysis During Fractional Flow Reserve Measurement. Results from the OMA-FFR Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciola, Martina I; Morris, Paul D; Gosling, Rebecca; Lawford, Patricia V; Hose, D Rodney; Gunn, Julian P

    2018-02-13

    Fractional flow reserve (FFR), the reference-standard for guiding coronary revascularisation, is most commonly acquired during intravenous adenosine infusion. Results may be sensitive to system- and operator-dependent variability in how pressure data are analysed and interpreted. We developed a computational protocol to process the recorded pressure signals in a consistent manner to objectively quantify FFR. We studied the impact upon lesion (re)classification and compared this with the operator-selected FFR obtained during cardiac catheterisation. The algorithm used a moving average and Fourier transformation to identify the Pd/Pa ratio at its nadir (FFRmin) and during the stable hyperaemic period (FFRstable) in <2s with 100% repeatability, in 163 coronary stenoses (93 patients). The mean operator-selected FFR (FFRCL) was higher than FFRmin and lower than FFRstable (0.779 vs 0.762 vs 0.806, P=<0.01). Compared with FFRmin, FFRstable resulted in 16.5% of all lesions being re-classified, all from significant to non-significant (p<0.01). FFRCL classified lesion significance differently to both FFRstable and FFRmin (11.7% and 6.1% lesions reclassified respectively, p<0.01). Subtle differences in how pressure data are analysed and interpreted by the operator during adenosine infusion result in significant differences in the classification of physiological lesion significance. An algorithmic analysis may be helpful in standardising FFR analysis providing an objective and repeatable result.

  16. Deforestation does not affect the prevalence of a common trypanosome in African birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valkiūnas, Gediminas; Iezhova, Tatjana A; Sehgal, Ravinder N M

    2016-10-01

    In spite of numerous reports of avian Trypanosoma spp. in birds throughout the world, patterns of the distribution and prevalence of these blood parasites remains insufficiently understood. It is clear that spatial heterogeneity influences parameters of parasite distributions in natural populations, but data regarding avian trypanosomes are scarce. Using microscopy and molecular diagnostic methods, we analysed the variation of prevalence of avian Trypanosoma parasites in two widespread African bird species, the yellow-whiskered greenbul Andropadus latirostris and the olive sunbird Cyanomitra olivacea. In all, 353 birds were captured in pristine forests and agroforest sites in Cameroon and Ghana. Overall, the prevalence of avian trypanosomes was 51.3%. Five morphospecies were reported (Trypanosoma everetti, T. anguiformis, T. avium, T. naviformis, T. ontarioensis). Trypanosoma everetti predominated, representing 98% of all Trypanosoma spp. reports, and it was present in both avian hosts. The prevalence of T. everetti was significantly less in the yellow-whiskered greenbul (19%) than olive sunbird (83%), and the same pattern of prevalence was reported in these avian hosts at different study sites. We found no interaction between sites and the prevalence of T. everetti. For both avian hosts, the prevalence did not differ significantly between pristine forests and agroforests. This indicates the same pattern of transmission at sites with different levels of deforestation and suggests that spatial heterogeneity related to deforestation does not affect the prevalence of avian Trypanosoma infections. It is likely that host-related factors, but not environmental conditions favour or reduce these parasite infections in forests of sub-Saharan Africa. Microscopic and PCR-based diagnostics showed the same sensitivity in diagnostics of T. everetti. We discuss the implications of these findings for the epidemiology of avian trypanosomiasis in natural populations. Copyright

  17. Evaluating Interactions of Forest Conservation Policies on Avoided Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robalino, Juan; Sandoval, Catalina; Barton, David N.; Chacon, Adriana; Pfaff, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the effects on deforestation that have resulted from policy interactions between parks and payments and between park buffers and payments in Costa Rica between 2000 and 2005. We show that the characteristics of the areas where protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. Additionally, we find that land characteristics of each of the policies and of the places where they interact also differ significantly. To adequately estimate the effects of the policies and their interactions, we use matching methods. Matching is implemented not only to define adequate control groups, as in previous research, but also to define those groups of locations under the influence of policies that are comparable to each other. We find that it is more effective to locate parks and payments away from each other, rather than in the same location or near each other. The high levels of enforcement inside both parks and lands with payments, and the presence of conservation spillovers that reduce deforestation near parks, significantly reduce the potential impact of combining these two policies. PMID:25909323

  18. Evaluating interactions of forest conservation policies on avoided deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robalino, Juan; Sandoval, Catalina; Barton, David N; Chacon, Adriana; Pfaff, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the effects on deforestation that have resulted from policy interactions between parks and payments and between park buffers and payments in Costa Rica between 2000 and 2005. We show that the characteristics of the areas where protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. Additionally, we find that land characteristics of each of the policies and of the places where they interact also differ significantly. To adequately estimate the effects of the policies and their interactions, we use matching methods. Matching is implemented not only to define adequate control groups, as in previous research, but also to define those groups of locations under the influence of policies that are comparable to each other. We find that it is more effective to locate parks and payments away from each other, rather than in the same location or near each other. The high levels of enforcement inside both parks and lands with payments, and the presence of conservation spillovers that reduce deforestation near parks, significantly reduce the potential impact of combining these two policies.

  19. Evaluating interactions of forest conservation policies on avoided deforestation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Robalino

    Full Text Available We estimate the effects on deforestation that have resulted from policy interactions between parks and payments and between park buffers and payments in Costa Rica between 2000 and 2005. We show that the characteristics of the areas where protected and unprotected lands are located differ significantly. Additionally, we find that land characteristics of each of the policies and of the places where they interact also differ significantly. To adequately estimate the effects of the policies and their interactions, we use matching methods. Matching is implemented not only to define adequate control groups, as in previous research, but also to define those groups of locations under the influence of policies that are comparable to each other. We find that it is more effective to locate parks and payments away from each other, rather than in the same location or near each other. The high levels of enforcement inside both parks and lands with payments, and the presence of conservation spillovers that reduce deforestation near parks, significantly reduce the potential impact of combining these two policies.

  20. Policies for reduced deforestation and their impact on agricultural production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelsen, Arild

    2010-11-16

    Policies to effectively reduce deforestation are discussed within a land rent (von Thünen) framework. The first set of policies attempts to reduce the rent of extensive agriculture, either by neglecting extension, marketing, and infrastructure, generating alternative income opportunities, stimulating intensive agricultural production or by reforming land tenure. The second set aims to increase either extractive or protective forest rent and--more importantly--create institutions (community forest management) or markets (payment for environmental services) that enable land users to capture a larger share of the protective forest rent. The third set aims to limit forest conversion directly by establishing protected areas. Many of these policy options present local win-lose scenarios between forest conservation and agricultural production. Local yield increases tend to stimulate agricultural encroachment, contrary to the logic of the global food equation that suggests yield increases take pressure off forests. At national and global scales, however, policy makers are presented with a more pleasant scenario. Agricultural production in developing countries has increased by 3.3-3.4% annually over the last 2 decades, whereas gross deforestation has increased agricultural area by only 0.3%, suggesting a minor role of forest conversion in overall agricultural production. A spatial delinking of remaining forests and intensive production areas should also help reconcile conservation and production goals in the future.

  1. Fifty-year spatiotemporal analysis of landscape changes in the Mont Saint-Hilaire UNESCO Biosphere Reserve (Quebec, Canada).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Béliveau, Marc; Germain, Daniel; Ianăş, Ana-Neli

    2017-05-01

    Diachronic analysis with a GIS-based classification of land-use changes based on aerial photographs, orthophotos, topographic maps, geotechnical reports, urban plans, and using landscape metrics has permitted insight into the driving forces responsible for landscape fragmentation in the Mont Saint-Hilaire (MSH) Biosphere Reserve over the period 1958-2015. Although the occurrence of exogenous factors, such as extreme weather and fires, can have a significant influence on the fragmentation of the territory in time and space, the accelerated development of the built environment (+470%) is nevertheless found to be primarily responsible for landscape fragmentation and the loss of areas formerly occupied by orchards, agriculture, and woodlands. The landscape metrics used corroborate these results, with a simplification of the shape of polygons, and once again reveal the difficulties of harmonizing different land uses. MSH has become somewhat of a forest island in a sea of residential development and agriculture. To counter this isolation of fragmented habitat components, forest corridors have been proposed and developed for the Biosphere Reserve and particularly for the core area. Two corridors, to the north and south, are used to connect the protected area and other wooded areas at the regional scale, in order to promote genetic exchange between populations of various species. In that regard, the forest buffer zone around the hill continues to play a key role and has great ecological value for species and ecological preservation and conservation. However, appropriate management and landscape preservation actions should recognize and focus on landscape composition and the associated geographical configuration.

  2. Advanced computed tomographic anatomical and morphometric plaque analysis for prediction of fractional flow reserve in intermediate coronary lesions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Opolski, Maksymilian P.; Kepka, Cezary; Achenbach, Stephan; Pregowski, Jerzy; Kruk, Mariusz; Staruch, Adam D.; Kadziela, Jacek; Ruzyllo, Witold; Witkowski, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To determine the application of advanced coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) plaque analysis for predicting invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR) in intermediate coronary lesions. Methods: Sixty-one patients with 71 single intermediate coronary lesions (≥50–80% stenosis) on CCTA prospectively underwent coronary angiography and FFR. Advanced anatomical and morphometric plaque analysis was performed based on CCTA data set to determine optimal criteria for significant flow impairment. A significant stenosis was defined as FFR ≤ 0.80. Results: FFR averaged 0.85 ± 0.09, and 19 lesions (27%) were functionally significant. FFR correlated with minimum lumen area (MLA) (r = 0.456, p < 0.001), minimum lumen diameter (MLD) (r = 0.326, p = 0.006), reference lumen diameter (RLD) (r = 0.245, p = 0.039), plaque burden (r = −0.313, p = 0.008), lumen area stenosis (r = −0.305, p = 0.01), lesion length (r = −0.692, p < 0.001), and plaque volume (r = −0.668, p < 0.001). There was no relationship between FFR and CCTA morphometric plaque parameters. By multivariate analysis the independent predictors of FFR were lesion length (beta = −0.581, p < 0.001), MLA (beta = 0.360, p = 0.041), and RLD (beta = −0.255, p = 0.036). The optimal cutoffs for lesion length, MLA, MLD, RLD, and lumen area stenosis were >18.5 mm, ≤3.0 mm 2 , ≤2.1 mm, ≤3.2 mm, and >69%, respectively (max. sensitivity: 100% for MLA, max. specificity: 79% for lumen area stenosis). Conclusions: CCTA predictors for FFR support the mathematical relationship between stenosis pressure drop and coronary flow. CCTA could prove to be a useful rule-out test for significant hemodynamic effects of intermediate coronary stenoses

  3. The Impacts of Amazon Deforestation on Pacific Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsey, Leah

    Variability in eastern Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation are known to affect Amazonian precipitation, but to what extent do changing Amazonian vegetation and rainfall impact eastern Pacific SST? The Amazon rainforest is threatened by many factors including climate change and clearing for agricultural reasons. Forest fires and dieback are more likely due to increased frequency and intensity of droughts in the region. It is possible that extensive Amazon deforestation can enhance El Nino conditions by weakening the Walker circulation. Correlations between annual rainfall rates over the Amazon and other atmospheric parameters (global precipitation, surface air temperature, low cloud amount, 500 hPa vertical velocity, surface winds, and 200 hPa winds) over the eastern Pacific indicate strong relationships among these fields. Maps of these correlations (teleconnection maps) reveal that when the Amazon is rainy SSTs in the central and eastern Pacific are cold, rainfall is suppressed over the central and eastern Pacific, low clouds are prominent over the eastern and southeastern Pacific, and subsidence over the central and eastern Pacific is enhanced. Precipitation in the Amazon is also consistent with a strong Walker circulation (La Nina conditions), manifest as strong correlations with the easterly surface and westerly 200 hPa zonal winds. Coupling between Amazon rainfall and these fields are seen in observations and model data. Correlations were calculated using data from observations, reanalysis data, two models under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5/AMIP), and an AMIP run with the model used in this study, the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.1.1). Although the correlations between Amazon precipitation and the aforementioned fields are strong, they do not show causality. In order to investigate the impact of tropical South American deforestation on the

  4. Impact of deforestation on soil carbon stock and its spatial distribution in the Western Black Sea Region of Turkey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucuker, Mehmet Ali; Guney, Mert; Oral, H Volkan; Copty, Nadim K; Onay, Turgut T

    2015-01-01

    Land use management is one of the most critical factors influencing soil carbon storage and the global carbon cycle. This study evaluates the impact of land use change on the soil carbon stock in the Karasu region of Turkey which in the last two decades has undergone substantial deforestation to expand hazelnut plantations. Analysis of seasonal soil data indicated that the carbon content decreased rapidly with depth for both land uses. Statistical analyses indicated that the difference between the surface carbon stock (defined over 0-5 cm depth) in agricultural and forested areas is statistically significant (Agricultural = 1.74 kg/m(2), Forested = 2.09 kg/m(2), p = 0.014). On the other hand, the average carbon stocks estimated over the 0-1 m depth were 12.36 and 12.12 kg/m(2) in forested and agricultural soils, respectively. The carbon stock (defined over 1 m depth) in the two land uses were not significantly different which is attributed in part to the negative correlation between carbon stock and bulk density (-0.353, p < 0.01). The soil carbon stock over the entire study area was mapped using a conditional kriging approach which jointly uses the collected soil carbon data and satellite-based land use images. Based on the kriging map, the spatially soil carbon stock (0-1 m dept) ranged about 2 kg/m(2) in highly developed areas to more than 23 kg/m(2) in intensively cultivated areas as well as the averaged soil carbon stock (0-1 m depth) was estimated as 10.4 kg/m(2). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Deforestation and agriculture in the tropics: carbon emissions and options for mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carter, Sarah

    2018-01-01

    Agriculture is the largest driver of deforestation globally, and this conversion of land from forests to agriculture, results in emissions which are contributing to climate change. This thesis focuses on exploring agriculture-driven deforestation at the country level, from the perspective of

  6. Detecting and monitoring deforestation and forest degradation: Issues and obstacles for Southeast Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas Muchoney; Sharon Hamann

    2013-01-01

    Forest degradation can be defined as the loss of forest volume, biomass and/or forest productivity caused by natural or human influences. Achieving Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) requires that deforestation and degradation can be efficiently, reliably, and cost-effectively detected and quantified, often where ground and aerial...

  7. Effects of Deforestation on Natural Bio-Diversity in Delta North ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examines the effects of deforestation on natural bio-diversity in Delta North Region of Delta State, with the aim of determining the extent of tree species loss. Vegetation physiognomy of tree height, tree diameter and tree species population were measured in forested and deforested areas. Two experimental sites ...

  8. Impacts of future deforestation and climate change on the hydrology of the Amazon Basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guimberteau, Matthieu; Ciais, Philippe; Pablo Boisier, Juan; Paula Dutra Aguiar, Ana; Biemans, Hester; Deurwaerder, De Hannes; Galbraith, David; Kruijt, Bart; Langerwisch, Fanny; Poveda, German; Rammig, Anja; Andres Rodriguez, Daniel; Tejada, Graciela; Thonicke, Kirsten; Randow, Von Celso; Randow, Rita; Zhang, Ke; Verbeeck, Hans

    2017-01-01

    Deforestation in Amazon is expected to decrease evapotranspiration (ET) and to increase soil moisture and river discharge under prevailing energy-limited conditions. The magnitude and sign of the response of ET to deforestation depend both on the magnitude and regional patterns of land-cover change

  9. Near real time detection of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon using MODIS imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egídio Arai

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to provide near real time information about deforestation detection (DETER in the entire Brazilian Amazon using MODIS high temporal resolution images. It is part of the operational deforestation monitoring project to estimate the annual deforestation rate in the Brazilian Amazon (PRODES. A rapid deforestation detection method was designed to support land use policies in this region. In order to evaluate the proposed method a test site was selected covering a Landsat ETM+ scene (227/68 located in Mato Grosso State. For this purpose a multitemporal series of MODIS surface reflectance images (MOD09 and the corresponding ETM+ images from June to October 2002 were analyzed. It was found that small deforested areas (lower than 15 ha were detected by MODIS images with lower accuracy when compared with ETM+ images. As the deforested areas increase MODIS and ETM+ results tend to converge. This procedure showed to be adequate to operationally detect and monitor deforested areas and has been used since 2004 as part of a government plan to control the Amazon deforestation.

  10. Impact Of Deforestation On Ecosystem: A Case Study Of The Fresh ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper takes a look at the impact of unregulated and uncontrolled removal of vegetation due to human economic activities in Onne freshwater swamp forest. In this study, the mean area of land covered by flood waters was 0.55 ha for the deforested land compared to the non-deforested land which had a mean of 0.25 ha.

  11. Governance regime and location influence avoided deforestation success of protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolte, Christoph; Agrawal, Arun; Silvius, Kirsten M; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S

    2013-03-26

    Protected areas in tropical countries are managed under different governance regimes, the relative effectiveness of which in avoiding deforestation has been the subject of recent debates. Participants in these debates answer appeals for more strict protection with the argument that sustainable use areas and indigenous lands can balance deforestation pressures by leveraging local support to create and enforce protective regulations. Which protection strategy is more effective can also depend on (i) the level of deforestation pressures to which an area is exposed and (ii) the intensity of government enforcement. We examine this relationship empirically, using data from 292 protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon. We show that, for any given level of deforestation pressure, strictly protected areas consistently avoided more deforestation than sustainable use areas. Indigenous lands were particularly effective at avoiding deforestation in locations with high deforestation pressure. Findings were stable across two time periods featuring major shifts in the intensity of government enforcement. We also observed shifting trends in the location of protected areas, documenting that between 2000 and 2005 strictly protected areas were more likely to be established in high-pressure locations than in sustainable use areas and indigenous lands. Our findings confirm that all protection regimes helped reduce deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon.

  12. Mapping deforestation and forest degradation using Landsat time series: a case of Sumatra—Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belinda Arunarwati Margono

    2013-01-01

    Indonesia experiences the second highest rate of deforestation among tropical countries (FAO 2005, 2010). Consequently, timely and accurate forest data are required to combat deforestation and forest degradation in support of climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation policy initiatives. Remote sensing is considered as a significant data source for forest...

  13. Can a sample of Landsat sensor scenes reliably estimate the global extent of tropical deforestation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. L. Czaplewski

    2003-01-01

    Tucker and Townshend (2000) conclude that wall-to-wall coverage is needed to avoid gross errors in estimations of deforestation rates' because tropical deforestation is concentrated along roads and rivers. They specifically question the reliability of the 10% sample of Landsat sensor scenes used in the global remote sensing survey conducted by the Food and...

  14. Modelling the impacts of deforestation on monsoon rainfall in West Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abiodun, B J; Pal, J S; Afiesimama, E A; Gutowski, W J; Adedoyin, A

    2010-01-01

    The study found that deforestation causes more monsoon moisture to be retained in the mid-troposphere, thereby reducing the northward transport of moisture needed for rainfall over West Africa. Hence, deforestation has dynamical impacts on the West African monsoon and rainfall.

  15. Election-driven weakening of deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues-Filho, S.; Verburg, R.W.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Bursztyn, M.; Vilhena, A.M.G.

    2015-01-01

    Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied

  16. Attribution of CO2 emissions from Brazilian deforestation to consumers between 1990 and 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karstensen, Jonas; Peters, Glen P; Andrew, Robbie M

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to reduce deforestation to mitigate climate change and to conserve biodiversity are taking place on a global scale. While many studies have estimated the emissions occurring from deforestation, few studies have quantified the domestic and international drivers sustaining deforestation rates. In this study we establish the link between Brazilian deforestation and production of cattle and soybeans, and allocate emissions between 1990 and 2010 along the global supply chain to the countries that consume products dependent on Brazilian deforestation. We find that 30% of the carbon emissions associated with deforestation were exported from Brazil in the last decade, of which 29% were due to soybean production and 71% cattle ranching. The share exported is growing, with industrialized nations and emerging markets (especially Russia and China) greatly increasing imports. We find a correlation between exports (and hence global consumption) of Brazilian cattle and soybeans and emissions from deforestation. We conclude that trade is emerging as a key driver of deforestation in Brazil, and this may indirectly contribute to loss of the forests that industrialized countries are seeking to protect through international agreements. (letter)

  17. Election-driven weakening of deforestation control in the Brazilian Amazon.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues-Filho, S; Verburg, R.W.; Bursztyn, M; Lindoso, D; Debortoli, N

    2015-01-01

    Commodity prices, exchange rate, infrastructural projects and migration patterns are known and important drivers of Amazon deforestation, but cannot solely explain the high rates observed in 1995 and 2003–2004 in six Brazilian Amazon states. Deforestation predictions using those widely applied

  18. Simulated Changes in Northwest U.S. Climate in Response to Amazon Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numerical models have long predicted that the deforestation of the Amazon would lead to large regional changes in precipitation and temperature, but the extratropical effects of deforestation have been a matter of controversy. This paper investigates the simulated impacts of defo...

  19. Analysis of the deforestation problem in tropical Latin America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorge. Malleux

    2012-01-01

    The driving forces of land use changes have been analyzed and discussed for a long time with different solutions proposed and implemented. Unfortunately the reduction of natural forest cover continues in the same direction, generating an increasing alarm all around the world among scientist and politicians, related to the climate change awareness and strategies for its...

  20. A comparison of baseline methodologies for 'Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation'

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kok Kasper

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A mechanism for emission reductions from deforestation and degradation (REDD is very likely to be included in a future climate agreement. The choice of REDD baseline methodologies will crucially influence the environmental and economic effectiveness of the climate regime. We compare three different historical baseline methods and one innovative dynamic model baseline approach to appraise their applicability under a future REDD policy framework using a weighted multi-criteria analysis. Results The results show that each baseline method has its specific strengths and weaknesses. Although the dynamic model allows for the best environmental and for comparatively good economic performance, its high demand for data and technical capacity limit the current applicability in many developing countries. Conclusion The adoption of a multi-tier approach will allow countries to select the baseline method best suiting their specific capabilities and data availability while simultaneously ensuring scientific transparency, environmental effectiveness and broad political support.

  1. The mountain-lowland debate: deforestation and sediment transport in the upper Ganga catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasson, R J; Juyal, N; Jaiswal, M; McCulloch, M; Sarin, M M; Jain, V; Srivastava, P; Singhvi, A K

    2008-07-01

    The Himalaya-Gangetic Plain region is the iconic example of the debate about the impact on lowlands of upland land-use change. Some of the scientific aspects of this debate are revisited by using new techniques to examine the role of deforestation in erosion and river sediment transport. The approach is whole-of-catchment, combining a history of deforestation with a history of sediment sources from well before deforestation. It is shown that deforestation had some effect on one very large erosional event in 1970, in the Alaknanda subcatchment of the Upper Ganga catchment, but that both deforestation and its effects on erosion and sediment transport are far from uniform in the Himalaya. Large magnitude erosional events occur for purely natural reasons. The impact on the Gangetic Plain of erosion caused by natural events and land cover change remains uncertain.

  2. Air quality and human health improvements from reduced deforestation in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddington, C.; Butt, E. W.; Ridley, D. A.; Artaxo, P.; Morgan, W.; Coe, H.; Spracklen, D. V.

    2015-12-01

    Significant areas of the Brazilian Amazon have been deforested over the past few decades, with fire being the dominant method through which forests and vegetation are cleared. Fires emit large quantities of particulate matter into the atmosphere, degrading air quality and negatively impacting human health. Since 2004, Brazil has achieved substantial reductions in deforestation rates and associated deforestation fires. Here we assess the impact of this reduction on air quality and human health. We show that dry season (August - October) aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieved by satellite over southwest Brazil and Bolivia is positively related to Brazil's annual deforestation rate (r=0.96, Pannually across South America. Future increases in Brazil's deforestation rates and associated fires may threaten the improved air quality reported here.

  3. Slowing Amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepstad, Daniel; McGrath, David; Stickler, Claudia; Alencar, Ane; Azevedo, Andrea; Swette, Briana; Bezerra, Tathiana; DiGiano, Maria; Shimada, João; Seroa da Motta, Ronaldo; Armijo, Eric; Castello, Leandro; Brando, Paulo; Hansen, Matt C; McGrath-Horn, Max; Carvalho, Oswaldo; Hess, Laura

    2014-06-06

    The recent 70% decline in deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon suggests that it is possible to manage the advance of a vast agricultural frontier. Enforcement of laws, interventions in soy and beef supply chains, restrictions on access to credit, and expansion of protected areas appear to have contributed to this decline, as did a decline in the demand for new deforestation. The supply chain interventions that fed into this deceleration are precariously dependent on corporate risk management, and public policies have relied excessively on punitive measures. Systems for delivering positive incentives for farmers to forgo deforestation have been designed but not fully implemented. Territorial approaches to deforestation have been effective and could consolidate progress in slowing deforestation while providing a framework for addressing other important dimensions of sustainable development. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  4. Cognitive Reserve in Healthy Aging and Alzheimer's Disease: A Meta-Analysis of fMRI Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colangeli, Stefano; Boccia, Maddalena; Verde, Paola; Guariglia, Paola; Bianchini, Filippo; Piccardi, Laura

    2016-08-01

    Cognitive reserve (CR) has been defined as the ability to optimize or maximize performance through differential recruitment of brain networks. In the present study, we aimed at providing evidence for a consistent brain network underpinning CR in healthy and pathological aging. To pursue this aim, we performed a coordinate-based meta-analysis of 17 functional magnetic resonance imaging studies on CR proxies in healthy aging, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We found that different brain areas were associated with CR proxies in healthy and pathological aging. A wide network of areas, including medial and lateral frontal areas, that is, anterior cingulate cortex and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, as well as precuneus, was associated with proxies of CR in healthy elderly patients. The CR proxies in patients with AD and amnesic-MCI were associated with activation in the anterior cingulate cortex. These results were discussed hypothesizing the existence of possible compensatory mechanisms in healthy and pathological aging. © The Author(s) 2016.

  5. Building ties: social capital network analysis of a forest community in a biosphere reserve in Chiapas, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Rico García-Amado

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Governance of the commons depends on the capacity to generate collective action. Networks and rules that foster that collective action have been defined as social capital. However, their causal link is still not fully understood. We use social network analysis to assess social capital, decision-making, and collective action in a forest-based common pool resource management in La Sepultura Biosphere Reserve (Chiapas, Mexico. Our research analyzes the productive networks and the evolution of coffee groups in one community. The network shows some centrality, with richer landholders tending to occupy core positions and poorer landless peasants occupying peripheral ones. This has fostered the community's environmentally oriented development but has also caused internal conflicts. Market requirements have shaped different but complementary productive networks, where organic coffee commercialization is the main source of bridging ties, which has resulted in more connectivity and resilience. Conservation attitudes, along with the institutional setting of the community, have promoted collective action. The unresolved conflicts, however, still leave some concerns about governance in the future.

  6. Correlation analysis between forest carbon stock and spectral vegetation indices in Xuan Lien Nature Reserve, Thanh Hoa, Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dung Nguyen, The; Kappas, Martin

    2017-04-01

    In the last several years, the interest in forest biomass and carbon stock estimation has increased due to its importance for forest management, modelling carbon cycle, and other ecosystem services. However, no estimates of biomass and carbon stocks of deferent forest cover types exist throughout in the Xuan Lien Nature Reserve, Thanh Hoa, Viet Nam. This study investigates the relationship between above ground carbon stock and different vegetation indices and to identify the most likely vegetation index that best correlate with forest carbon stock. The terrestrial inventory data come from 380 sample plots that were randomly sampled. Individual tree parameters such as DBH and tree height were collected to calculate the above ground volume, biomass and carbon for different forest types. The SPOT6 2013 satellite data was used in the study to obtain five vegetation indices NDVI, RDVI, MSR, RVI, and EVI. The relationships between the forest carbon stock and vegetation indices were investigated using a multiple linear regression analysis. R-square, RMSE values and cross-validation were used to measure the strength and validate the performance of the models. The methodology presented here demonstrates the possibility of estimating forest volume, biomass and carbon stock. It can also be further improved by addressing more spectral bands data and/or elevation.

  7. Decoupling of Deforestation and Soy Production in the Southern Amazon During the Late 2000s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo, Marcia N.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Morton, Douglas C.; Stickler, Claudia M.; Galford, Gillian L.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.

    2011-01-01

    From 2006-2010 deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996-2005) while agricultural production reached an all time high, achieving the oft-cited objective of increasing production while maintaining forest cover. This study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001-2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006-2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10% to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels while deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that anti-deforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso or forests in neighboring Amazon states during the late 2000s, although leakage to more distant regions is possible. This study provides empirical evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers through productive use of already cleared lands. It remains uncertain whether government and industry-led policies can contain deforestation when market conditions again favor a boom in agricultural expansion.

  8. Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xiao-Peng; Huang, Chengquan; Saatchi, Sassan S; Hansen, Matthew C; Townshend, John R

    2015-01-01

    Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates-critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+-are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr(-1) and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr(-1) respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha(-1), ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha(-1)). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha(-1)•yr(-1) from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.

  9. Effects of systematic sampling on satellite estimates of deforestation rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steininger, M K; Godoy, F; Harper, G

    2009-01-01

    Options for satellite monitoring of deforestation rates over large areas include the use of sampling. Sampling may reduce the cost of monitoring but is also a source of error in estimates of areas and rates. A common sampling approach is systematic sampling, in which sample units of a constant size are distributed in some regular manner, such as a grid. The proposed approach for the 2010 Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is a systematic sample of 10 km wide squares at every 1 deg. intersection of latitude and longitude. We assessed the outcome of this and other systematic samples for estimating deforestation at national, sub-national and continental levels. The study is based on digital data on deforestation patterns for the five Amazonian countries outside Brazil plus the Brazilian Amazon. We tested these schemes by varying sample-unit size and frequency. We calculated two estimates of sampling error. First we calculated the standard errors, based on the size, variance and covariance of the samples, and from this calculated the 95% confidence intervals (CI). Second, we calculated the actual errors, based on the difference between the sample-based estimates and the estimates from the full-coverage maps. At the continental level, the 1 deg., 10 km scheme had a CI of 21% and an actual error of 8%. At the national level, this scheme had CIs of 126% for Ecuador and up to 67% for other countries. At this level, increasing sampling density to every 0.25 deg. produced a CI of 32% for Ecuador and CIs of up to 25% for other countries, with only Brazil having a CI of less than 10%. Actual errors were within the limits of the CIs in all but two of the 56 cases. Actual errors were half or less of the CIs in all but eight of these cases. These results indicate that the FRA 2010 should have CIs of smaller than or close to 10% at the continental level. However, systematic sampling at the national level yields large CIs unless the

  10. Deforestation and Industrial Forest Patterns in Colombia: a Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huo, L. Z.; Boschetti, L.; Sparks, A. M.; Clerici, N.

    2017-12-01

    The recent peace agreement between the government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) offers new opportunities for peaceful and sustainable development, but at the same time requires a timely effort to protect biological resources, and ecosystem services (Clerici et al., 2016). In this context, we use the 2001-2017 Landsat data record to prototype a methodology to establish a baseline of deforestation, afforestation and industrial forest practices (i.e. establishment and harvest of forest plantations), and to monitor future changes. Two study areas, which have seen considerable deforestation in recent years, were selected: one in the South of the country, at the edge of the Amazon Forest (WRS path 008 row 059) and one in the center, in mixed forest (WRS path 008 row 055). The time series of all the available cloud free Landsat 5, Landsat 7 and Landsat 8 data was classified into a sequence of binary forest/non forest maps using a deep learning model, successfully used in the natural language processing field, trained to detect forest transitions. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) is a class of artificial neural network that extends the conventional neural network with loops in the connections (Graves et al., 2013). Unlike a feed-forward neural network, an RNN is able to process the sequential inputs by having a recurrent hidden state whose activation at each step depends on that of the previous steps. In this manner, the RNN provides a good framework to dynamically model time series data, and has been successfully applied to natural language processing in Google (Sutskever et al., 2014). The sequence of forest cover state maps was subsequently post-processed to differentiate between deforestation (e.g. transition from forest to non forest land use) and industrial forest harvest (i.e. timber harvest followed by regrowth), by integrating the detection of temporal patterns, and spatial patterns. References Clerici, N., et al., (2016). Colombia: Dealing

  11. Analysis, Design, and Implementation of a Logical Proof-of-Concept Prototype for Streamlining the Advertisement of Billets for the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohler, Jon D; Thorpe, John M

    2008-01-01

    The primary objective of this thesis is to provide the Marine Corps with a thorough bottom up System Analysis of the next generation billet advertisement system that will replace Reserve Duty Online (RDOL...

  12. 'Carbon-Money Exchange' to contain global warming and deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagase, Kozo

    2005-01-01

    This paper builds a basic theory of 'Carbon-Money Exchange' in which carbon as currency in nature's household (ecosystems) and money as currency in humankind's household (economy) are exchanged just like in a foreign exchange. The simple chemical equation below makes it possible (CO 2 →C+O 2 =C+O 2 →CO 2 ). The left-hand side represents the work of plants to remove atmospheric CO 2 . The right-hand side represents the work of humans as fossil fuel consumers to produce it. The exchange of the two currencies is possible by copying the fossil fuel market. The paper concludes that this new exchange can automatically contain global warming and deforestation, replacing onerous emissions trading. Moreover, it could revolutionize the conventional economy, creating counter-capitalism, or 'carbonism'

  13. Family Planning and Deforestation: Evidence from the Ecuadorian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Samuel

    2017-06-01

    Despite an abundant body of literature exploring the relationship between population growth and forest cover change, comparatively little research has explored the forest cover impacts of family planning use, which is a key determinant of the rate of population growth in many developing country contexts. Using data from a farm-level panel survey in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon, this paper addresses whether family planning use impacts forest cover change. Longitudinal model results show that after controlling for household life cycle and land use variables, family planning use did not have an independent effect on deforestation, reforestation, or net forest loss between 1990 and 2008. Forest cover change patterns appear indicative of farm life cycle effects. However, family planning use is associated with reduced subsequent fertility among households, suggesting that the relationship between population growth from births and forest cover change may be limited in this setting.

  14. Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation, globally.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A; Nassikas, Alexander A

    2018-01-01

    Forest growth provides negative emissions of carbon that could help keep the earth's surface temperature from exceeding 2°C, but the global potential is uncertain. Here we use land-use information from the FAO and a bookkeeping model to calculate the potential negative emissions that would result from allowing secondary forests to recover. We find the current gross carbon sink in forests recovering from harvests and abandoned agriculture to be -4.4 PgC/year, globally. The sink represents the potential for negative emissions if positive emissions from deforestation and wood harvest were eliminated. However, the sink is largely offset by emissions from wood products built up over the last century. Accounting for these committed emissions, we estimate that stopping deforestation and allowing secondary forests to grow would yield cumulative negative emissions between 2016 and 2100 of about 120 PgC, globally. Extending the lifetimes of wood products could potentially remove another 10 PgC from the atmosphere, for a total of approximately 130 PgC, or about 13 years of fossil fuel use at today's rate. As an upper limit, the estimate is conservative. It is based largely on past and current practices. But if greater negative emissions are to be realized, they will require an expansion of forest area, greater efficiencies in converting harvested wood to long-lasting products and sources of energy, and novel approaches for sequestering carbon in soils. That is, they will require current management practices to change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Leakage Implications for European Timber Markets from Reducing Deforestation in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mattias Boman

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Forest management strategies and policies such as REDD (reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation may have unintentional implications for forest sectors in countries not targeted by such policies. The success of a policy effort like REDD would result in a significant reduction in deforestation and forest degradation and an ensuing reduction in the supply of natural forest timber production within participating countries. This could in turn result in price increases, inducing a supply response outside project boundaries with possible implications for forest management as well as global carbon emissions. This paper reviews the literature to discern potential timber market implications for countries sourcing wood products from developing countries affected by REDD related conservation efforts. The literature reviewed shows varying degrees of market effects leakage—policy actions in one place creating incentives for third parties to increase timber harvesting elsewhere through the price mechanism—ranging from negligible to substantial. However, wood products in the studies reviewed are dealt with on quite an aggregated scale and are assumed to be more or less perfect substitutes for wood products outside conservation effort boundaries. The review suggests that a thorough mapping of the end-uses of tropical timber is needed to comprehensively analyze impacts on wood-product markets in regions such as Europe from conservation efforts in tropical developing countries. The types of tropical timber expected to be affected, in which applications they are used, which are the most likely substitutes and where they would be sourced, are issues that, along with empirical analysis of supply and demand price elasticities and degree of substitutability, should be investigated when assessing the overall effectiveness of REDD.

  16. Tracking Large Area Mangrove Deforestation with Time-Series of High Fidelity MODIS Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, A. F.; Dragoni, D.; Didan, K.

    2011-12-01

    Mangrove forests are important coastal ecosystems of the tropical and subtropical regions. These forests provide critical ecosystem services, fulfill important socio-economic and environmental functions, and support coastal livelihoods. But these forest are also among the most vulnerable ecosystems, both to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Yet, there exists no map or published study showing detailed spatiotemporal trends of mangrove deforestation at local to regional scales. There is an immediate need of producing such detailed maps to further study the drivers, impacts and feedbacks of anthropogenic and climate factors on mangrove deforestation, and to develop local and regional scale adaptation/mitigation strategies. In this study we use a time-series of high fidelity imagery from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for tracking changes in the greenness of mangrove forests of Kalimantan Island of Indonesia. A novel method of filtering satellite data for cloud, aerosol, and view angle effects was used to produce high fidelity MODIS time-series images at 250-meter spatial resolution and three-month temporal resolution for the period of 2000-2010. Enhanced Vegetation Index 2 (EVI2), a measure of vegetation greenness, was calculated from these images for each pixel at each time interval. Temporal variations in the EVI2 of each pixel were tracked as a proxy to deforestaton of mangroves using the statistical method of change-point analysis. Results of these change detection were validated using Monte Carlo simulation, photographs from Google-Earth, finer spatial resolution images from Landsat satellite, and ground based GIS data.

  17. Measuring Environmental and Socio-economic Impact of Deforestation at Kalimantan Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahib, Irmadi; Trenggana, Soma; Turmudi; Suryanta, Jaka; Lestari Munajati, Sri; Windiastuti, Rizka

    2018-05-01

    Indonesia’s forests in the period of 2000-2009 has been deforested by about 15.158 million ha out of 103.309 milion ha. Deforestation caused carbon emissions. One method for measuring emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is GeOSIRIS model. A modeled GeOSIRIS policy used a carbon payment system to incentivize emission reductions. Data used in this study were maps of forest cover in 2005 and 2010, map of deforestation 2005-2010, carbon and agricultural price and driver variables for deforestation such as slope, elevation, logarithmic distance to the nearest road or provincial capital, or the amount of area per pixel included in a national park, or a timber plantation. The result of this study showed rate of deforestation was 1.417 million ha/5 years (observed). The REDD policy could decrease deforestation in Kalimantan Island by 0.170 million ha (16.70%), with assumption that international carbon price of US 10/tCO2e. The change of emissions due to REDD was 22.29%, or reduced emissions by 245.03 million tCO2e/5 years. Finally, Gross National Revenue from carbon payments (NPV 5 years) was US 2,450.34 billion, where incentivize emission reductions to sub-national entities (NPV, 5 years) was US 2,150.07 million and net central government surplus from carbon payments was US 300.26 million (NPV, 5 years).

  18. Deforestation and rainfall recycling in Brazil: Is decreased forest cover connectivity associated with decreased rainfall connectivity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adera, S.; Larsen, L.; Levy, M. C.; Thompson, S. E.

    2017-12-01

    In the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone, deforestation has the potential to significantly affect rainfall by disrupting rainfall recycling, the process by which regional evapotranspiration contributes to regional rainfall. Understanding rainfall recycling in this region is important not only for sustaining Amazon and Cerrado ecosystems, but also for cattle ranching, agriculture, hydropower generation, and drinking water management. Simulations in previous studies suggest complex, scale-dependent interactions between forest cover connectivity and rainfall. For example, the size and distribution of deforested patches has been found to affect rainfall quantity and spatial distribution. Here we take an empirical approach, using the spatial connectivity of rainfall as an indicator of rainfall recycling, to ask: as forest cover connectivity decreased from 1981 - 2015, how did the spatial connectivity of rainfall change in the Brazilian rainforest-savanna transition zone? We use satellite forest cover and rainfall data covering this period of intensive forest cover loss in the region (forest cover from the Hansen Global Forest Change dataset; rainfall from the Climate Hazards Infrared Precipitation with Stations dataset). Rainfall spatial connectivity is quantified using transfer entropy, a metric from information theory, and summarized using network statistics. Networks of connectivity are quantified for paired deforested and non-deforested regions before deforestation (1981-1995) and during/after deforestation (2001-2015). Analyses reveal a decline in spatial connectivity networks of rainfall following deforestation.

  19. Export-oriented deforestation in Mato Grosso: harbinger or exception for other tropical forests?

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeFries, Ruth; Herold, Martin; Verchot, Louis; Macedo, Marcia N; Shimabukuro, Yosio

    2013-06-05

    The Brazilian state of Mato Grosso was a global deforestation hotspot in the early 2000s. Deforested land is used predominantly to produce meat for distal consumption either through cattle ranching or soya bean for livestock feed. Deforestation declined dramatically in the latter part of the decade through a combination of market forces, policies, enforcement and improved monitoring. This study assesses how representative the national-level drivers underlying Mato Grosso's export-oriented deforestation are in other tropical forest countries based on agricultural exports, commercial agriculture and urbanization. We also assess how pervasive the governance and technical monitoring capacity that enabled Mato Grosso's decline in deforestation is in other countries. We find that between 41 and 54 per cent of 2000-2005 deforestation in tropical forest countries (other than Brazil) occurred in countries with drivers similar to Brazil. Very few countries had national-level governance and capacity similar to Brazil. Results suggest that the ecological, hydrological and social consequences of land-use change for export-oriented agriculture as discussed in this Theme Issue were applicable in about one-third of all tropical forest countries in 2000-2005. However, the feasibility of replicating Mato Grosso's success with controlling deforestation is more limited. Production landscapes to support distal consumption similar to Mato Grosso are likely to become more prevalent and are unlikely to follow a land-use transition model with increasing forest cover.

  20. Simulating Deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, under Changing Government Policies and Socioeconomic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Kayla; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo; Espírito-Santo, Mário; Portillo-Quintero, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    Agricultural expansion is causing deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, converting savanna and tropical dry forest to farmland, and in 2012, Brazil's Forest Code was revised with the government reducing deforestation restrictions. Understanding the effects of policy change on rates and locations of natural ecosystem loss is imperative. In this paper, deforestation in Minas Gerais was simulated annually until 2020 using Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO). This system is a state-of-the-art land use and cover change (LUCC) model which incorporates government policy, landscape maps, and other biophysical and anthropogenic datasets. Three studied scenarios: (i) business as usual, (ii) increased deforestation, and (iii) decreased deforestation showed more transition to agriculture from shrubland compared to forests, and consistent locations for most deforestation. The probability of conversion to agriculture is strongly tied to areas with the smallest patches of original biome remaining. Increases in agricultural revenue are projected to continue with a loss of 25% of the remaining Cerrado land in the next decade if profit is maximized. The addition of biodiversity value as a tax on land sale prices, estimated at over $750,000,000 USD using the cost of extracting and maintaining current species ex-situ, can save more than 1 million hectares of shrubland with minimal effects on the economy of the State of Minas Gerais. With environmental policy determining rates of deforestation and economics driving the location of land clearing, site-specific protection or market accounting of externalities is needed to balance economic development and conservation.

  1. Representation of deforestation impacts on climate, water, and nutrient cycles in the ACME earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, X.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, Q.

    2017-12-01

    Deforestation causes a series of changes to the climate, water, and nutrient cycles. Employing a state-of-the-art earth system model—ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy), we comprehensively investigate the impacts of deforestation on these processes. We first assess the performance of the ACME Land Model (ALM) in simulating runoff, evapotranspiration, albedo, and plant productivity at 42 FLUXNET sites. The single column mode of ACME is then used to examine climate effects (temperature cooling/warming) and responses of runoff, evapotranspiration, and nutrient fluxes to deforestation. This approach separates local effects of deforestation from global circulation effects. To better understand the deforestation effects in a global context, we use the coupled (atmosphere, land, and slab ocean) mode of ACME to demonstrate the impacts of deforestation on global climate, water, and nutrient fluxes. Preliminary results showed that the land component of ACME has advantages in simulating these processes and that local deforestation has potentially large impacts on runoff and atmospheric processes.

  2. SPATIAL DEFORESTATION MODELILNG USING CELLULAR AUTOMATA (CASE STUDY: CENTRAL ZAGROS FORESTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Naghdizadegan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Forests have been highly exploited in recent decades in Iran and deforestation is going to be the major environmental concern due to its role in destruction of natural ecosystem and soil cover. Therefore, finding the effective parameters in deforestation and simulation of this process can help the management and preservation of forests. It helps predicting areas of deforestation in near future which is a useful tool for making socioeconomic disciplines in order to prevent deforestation in the area. Recently, GIS technologies are widely employed to support public policies in order to preserve ecosystems from undesirable human activities. The aim of this study is modelling the distribution of forest destruction in part of Central Zagros Mountains and predicting its process in future. In this paper we developed a Cellular Automata (CA model for deforestation process due to its high performance in spatial modelling, land cover change prediction and its compatibility with GIS. This model is going to determine areas with deforestation risk in the future. Land cover maps were explored using high spatial resolution satellite imageries and the forest land cover was extracted. In order to investigate the deforestation modelling, major elements of forest destruction relating to human activity and also physiographic parameters was explored and the suitability map was produced. Then the suitability map in combination with neighbourhood parameter was used to develop the CA model. Moreover, neighbourhood, suitability and stochastic disturbance term were calibrated in order to improve the simulation results. Regarding this, several neighbourhood configurations and different temporal intervals were tested. The accuracy of model was evaluated using satellite image. The results showed that the developed CA model in this research has proper performance in simulation of deforestation process. This model also predicted the areas with high potential for future

  3. HYDROCARBONS RESERVES IN VENEZUELA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Cruz, D.J.

    2007-07-01

    Venezuela is an important player in the energy world, because of its hydrocarbons reserves. The process for calculating oil and associated gas reserves is described bearing in mind that 90% of the gas reserves of Venezuela are associated to oil. Likewise, an analysis is made of the oil reserves figures from 1975 to 2003. Reference is also made to inconsistencies found by international experts and the explanations offered in this respect by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum (MENPET) and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) regarding the changes that took place in the 1980s. In turn, Hubbert's Law is explained to determine peak production of conventional oil that a reservoir or field will reach, as well as its relationship with remaining reserves. Emphasis is placed on the interest of the United Nations on this topic. The reserves of associated gas are presented along with their relationship with the different crude oils that are produced and with injected gas, as well as with respect to the possible changes that would take place in the latter if oil reserves are revised. Some recommendations are submitted so that the MENPET starts preparing the pertinent policies ruling reserves. (auth)

  4. Power-system-wide analysis of the benefits of reserve provision from solar photovoltaics in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bischof-Niemz, T

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available . However, South Africa has abundant solar resources and has seen a dramatic decline in solar PV tariffs over the past few years. The value of reserve provision to the system from solar PV was determined by simulating the South African power system...

  5. Effect of Deforestation and Land Use Changes on Mosquito Productivity and Development in Western Kenya Highlands: Implication for Malaria Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kweka, Eliningaya J; Kimaro, Epiphania E; Munga, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    African highlands were known to be free of malaria for the past 50 years. However, the ever growing human population in the highlands of Africa has led to the deforestation and land coverage changes to create space for more land for cultivation, grazing, and house construction materials needs. This has lead to the creation of suitable breeding habitats, which are in open places. Decrease of canopy and forest cover has led to increased temperature both in outdoors and indoors in deforested areas. This increased temperature has resulted in the shortening of developmental stages of aquatic stages of mosquitoes and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes. Assessment of the effects of deforestation and land coverage changes (decrease), which leads to temperature changes and subsequently increases survivorship of adults and sporogony development in adult mosquitoes' body was gathered from previous data collected from 2003 to 2012 using different analysis techniques. Habitats productivity, species dynamics and abundance, mosquitoes feeding rates, and sporogony development are presented in relation to temperature changes. The effects of temperature rise due to land cover changes in highlands of western Kenya on larval developmental rates, adult sporogony developments, and malaria risk in human population were derived. Vector species dynamics and abundance in relation to land use changes have been found to change with time. This study found that, land cover changes is a key driver for the temperature rise in African highlands and increases the rate of malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae ssp., An. Funestus , and An. arabiensis colonizing the highlands. It has also significantly enhanced sporogony development rate and adult vector survival and therefore the risk of malaria transmission in the highlands.

  6. LBA-ECO LC-22 Post-deforestation Land Use, Mato Grosso, Brazil: 2001-2005

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides (1) areal estimates of deforestation events (>25 ha) that were identified from 2001-2004 in Mato Grosso by the Brazilian Institute for...

  7. LBA-ECO LC-22 Field Validation of MODIS Deforestation Detection, Brazil, 2003-2004

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains field observations, corresponding GPS points, and point and polygons of deforested areas in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the period...

  8. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger defined...

  9. LBA-ECO LC-14 Modeled Deforestation Scenarios, Amazon Basin: 2002-2050

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides the results of the two modeled scenarios for future patterns of deforestation across the Amazon Basin from 2002 to 2050. This larger...

  10. LBA-ECO LC-22 Field Validation of MODIS Deforestation Detection, Brazil, 2005

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains field observations, corresponding GPS points, and point and polygons of deforested areas in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, for the period...

  11. LBA-ECO LC-22 Post-deforestation Land Use, Mato Grosso, Brazil: 2001-2005

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This data set provides (1) areal estimates of deforestation events (>25 ha) that were identified from 2001-2004 in Mato Grosso by the Brazilian...

  12. The Climate Effects of Deforestation the Amazon Rainforest under Global Warming Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werth, D.; Avissar, R.

    2006-12-01

    Replacement of tropical rainforests has been observed to have a strong drying effect in Amazon simulations, with effects reaching high into the atmospheric column and into the midlatitudes. The drying effects of deforestation, however, can be moderated by the effects of global warming, which should accelerate the hydrologic cycle of the Amazon. The effects of a prescribed, time-varying Amazon deforestation done in conjunction with a steady, moderate increase in CO2 concentrations are determined using a climate model. The model agrees with previous studies when each forcing is applied individually - compared to a control run, Amazon deforestation decreases the local precipitation and global warming increases it. When both are applied, however, the precipitation and other hydrologic variables decrease, but to a lesser extent than when deforestation alone was applied. In effect, the two effects act opposite to one another and bring the simulated climate closer to that of the control.

  13. Potential biodiversity benefits from international programs to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siikamäki, Juha; Newbold, Stephen C

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation is the second largest anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide emissions and options for its reduction are integral to climate policy. In addition to providing potentially low cost and near-term options for reducing global carbon emissions, reducing deforestation also could support biodiversity conservation. However, current understanding of the potential benefits to biodiversity from forest carbon offset programs is limited. We compile spatial data on global forest carbon, biodiversity, deforestation rates, and the opportunity cost of land to examine biodiversity conservation benefits from an international program to reduce carbon emissions from deforestation. Our results indicate limited geographic overlap between the least-cost areas for retaining forest carbon and protecting biodiversity. Therefore, carbon-focused policies will likely generate substantially lower benefits to biodiversity than a more biodiversity-focused policy could achieve. These results highlight the need to systematically consider co-benefits, such as biodiversity in the design and implementation of forest conservation programs to support international climate policy.

  14. An empirical analysis of the dynamic programming model of stockpile acquisition strategies for China's strategic petroleum reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Gang; Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming; Liu, Lan-Cui

    2008-01-01

    The world's future oil price is affected by many factors. The challenge, therefore, is how to select optimal stockpile acquisition strategies to minimize the cost of maintaining a reserve. This paper provides a new method for analyzing this problem using an uncertain dynamic programming model to analyze stockpile acquisition strategies for strategic petroleum reserve. Using this model, we quantify the impact of uncertain world oil price on optimal stockpile acquisition strategies of China's strategic petroleum reserve for the period 2007-2010 and 2011-2020. Our results show that the future stockpile acquisition is related to oil prices and their probability and, if not considering the occurrence of oil supply shortage, China should at least purchase 25 million barrels when world oil price is at an optimal level. The optimal price of stockpile acquisition of every year has a stronger relationship with the probability of high price; and the optimal expected price and size of stockpile acquisition is different in each year. (author)

  15. Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation: What contribution from carbon markets?

    OpenAIRE

    Bellassen , Valentin; Crassous , R.; Dietzsch , L.; Schwartzman , S.

    2008-01-01

    Tropical deforestation is responsible for 15-20% of total man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. In December 2007, at the international conference of Bali, the United Nations acknowledged that a viable solution to climate change must include a mechanism to limit deforestation and forest degradation. Today, the most widely used economic tool to reduce emissions is carbon markets: caps on emitters, and trade allowed between emitters and reducers, drive a price signal on carbon and provide ince...

  16. Agriculture-driven deforestation in the tropics from 1990-2015: emissions, trends and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Sarah; Herold, Martin; Avitabile, Valerio; de Bruin, Sytze; De Sy, Veronique; Kooistra, Lammert; Rufino, Mariana C.

    2018-01-01

    Limited data exists on emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation, and available data are typically uncertain. In this paper, we provide comparable estimates of emissions from both all deforestation and agriculture-driven deforestation, with uncertainties for 91 countries across the tropics between 1990 and 2015. Uncertainties associated with input datasets (activity data and emissions factors) were used to combine the datasets, where most certain datasets contribute the most. This method utilizes all the input data, while minimizing the uncertainty of the emissions estimate. The uncertainty of input datasets was influenced by the quality of the data, the sample size (for sample-based datasets), and the extent to which the timeframe of the data matches the period of interest. Area of deforestation, and the agriculture-driver factor (extent to which agriculture drives deforestation), were the most uncertain components of the emissions estimates, thus improvement in the uncertainties related to these estimates will provide the greatest reductions in uncertainties of emissions estimates. Over the period of the study, Latin America had the highest proportion of deforestation driven by agriculture (78%), and Africa had the lowest (62%). Latin America had the highest emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation, and these peaked at 974 ± 148 Mt CO2 yr-1 in 2000-2005. Africa saw a continuous increase in emissions between 1990 and 2015 (from 154 ± 21-412 ± 75 Mt CO2 yr-1), so mitigation initiatives could be prioritized there. Uncertainties for emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation are ± 62.4% (average over 1990-2015), and uncertainties were highest in Asia and lowest in Latin America. Uncertainty information is crucial for transparency when reporting, and gives credibility to related mitigation initiatives. We demonstrate that uncertainty data can also be useful when combining multiple open datasets, so we recommend new data

  17. Assessing the impact of international conservation aid on deforestation in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bare, Matthew; Kauffman, Craig; Miller, Daniel C.

    2015-12-01

    International conservation donors have spent at least 3.4 billion to protect biodiversity and stem tropical deforestation in Africa since the early 1990s. Despite more than two decades of experience, however, there is little research on the effect of this aid at a region-wide scale. Numerous case studies exist, but show mixed results. Existing research is usually based on community perception or focused on short-term donor objectives rather than specific conservation outcomes, like deforestation rates. Thus, the impact of billions of dollars of conservation aid on deforestation rates remains an open question. This article uses an original dataset to analyze the effect of international conservation aid on deforestation rates in 42 African countries between 2000 and 2013. We first describe patterns of conservation aid across the continent and then assess its impact (with one to five-year lags), controlling for other factors that may also affect deforestation, including rural population, protected areas (PAs), governance, and other economic and commodity production variables. We find that conservation aid is associated with higher rates of forest loss after one- or two-year lags. A similar result holds for PA extent, suggesting possible displacement of deforestation from PAs. However, governance quality in high forest cover countries moderates these effects such that deforestation rates are reduced. Rural population is the most consistent factor associated with forest loss, confirming previous studies of this driver. Our results suggest that in heavily forested countries, development projects designed to support conservation work initially in conditions of good governance, but that conservation aid alone is insufficient to mitigate larger deforestation drivers.

  18. Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Ocampo-Peñuela

    Full Text Available Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species' ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800 m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800 m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400 m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species' elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species' elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

  19. Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sills, Erin O; Herrera, Diego; Kirkpatrick, A Justin; Brandão, Amintas; Dickson, Rebecca; Hall, Simon; Pattanayak, Subhrendu; Shoch, David; Vedoveto, Mariana; Young, Luisa; Pfaff, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts' selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal "blacklist" that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on policies

  20. Elevational Ranges of Montane Birds and Deforestation in the Western Andes of Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia; Pimm, Stuart L

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation causes habitat loss, fragmentation, degradation, and can ultimately cause extinction of the remnant species. Tropical montane birds face these threats with the added natural vulnerability of narrower elevational ranges and higher specialization than lowland species. Recent studies assess the impact of present and future global climate change on species' ranges, but only a few of these evaluate the potentially confounding effect of lowland deforestation on species elevational distributions. In the Western Andes of Colombia, an important biodiversity hotspot, we evaluated the effects of deforestation on the elevational ranges of montane birds along altitudinal transects. Using point counts and mist-nets, we surveyed six altitudinal transects spanning 2200 to 2800 m. Three transects were forested from 2200 to 2800 m, and three were partially deforested with forest cover only above 2400 m. We compared abundance-weighted mean elevation, minimum elevation, and elevational range width. In addition to analysing the effect of deforestation on 134 species, we tested its impact within trophic guilds and habitat preference groups. Abundance-weighted mean and minimum elevations were not significantly different between forested and partially deforested transects. Range width was marginally different: as expected, ranges were larger in forested transects. Species in different trophic guilds and habitat preference categories showed different trends. These results suggest that deforestation may affect species' elevational ranges, even within the forest that remains. Climate change will likely exacerbate harmful impacts of deforestation on species' elevational distributions. Future conservation strategies need to account for this by protecting connected forest tracts across a wide range of elevations.

  1. Historic Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1. Source Data Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Douglas C.; Sales, Marcio H.; Souza, Carlos M., Jr.; Griscom, Bronson

    2011-01-01

    Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results: Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year trends of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by >20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C/ha, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions: Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions.

  2. Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sills, Erin O.; Herrera, Diego; Kirkpatrick, A. Justin; Brandão, Amintas; Dickson, Rebecca; Hall, Simon; Pattanayak, Subhrendu; Shoch, David; Vedoveto, Mariana; Young, Luisa; Pfaff, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts’ selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM) offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal “blacklist” that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual) scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012). This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and permutations on

  3. Estimating the Impacts of Local Policy Innovation: The Synthetic Control Method Applied to Tropical Deforestation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erin O Sills

    Full Text Available Quasi-experimental methods increasingly are used to evaluate the impacts of conservation interventions by generating credible estimates of counterfactual baselines. These methods generally require large samples for statistical comparisons, presenting a challenge for evaluating innovative policies implemented within a few pioneering jurisdictions. Single jurisdictions often are studied using comparative methods, which rely on analysts' selection of best case comparisons. The synthetic control method (SCM offers one systematic and transparent way to select cases for comparison, from a sizeable pool, by focusing upon similarity in outcomes before the intervention. We explain SCM, then apply it to one local initiative to limit deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. The municipality of Paragominas launched a multi-pronged local initiative in 2008 to maintain low deforestation while restoring economic production. This was a response to having been placed, due to high deforestation, on a federal "blacklist" that increased enforcement of forest regulations and restricted access to credit and output markets. The local initiative included mapping and monitoring of rural land plus promotion of economic alternatives compatible with low deforestation. The key motivation for the program may have been to reduce the costs of blacklisting. However its stated purpose was to limit deforestation, and thus we apply SCM to estimate what deforestation would have been in a (counterfactual scenario of no local initiative. We obtain a plausible estimate, in that deforestation patterns before the intervention were similar in Paragominas and the synthetic control, which suggests that after several years, the initiative did lower deforestation (significantly below the synthetic control in 2012. This demonstrates that SCM can yield helpful land-use counterfactuals for single units, with opportunities to integrate local and expert knowledge and to test innovations and

  4. Analysis of factors controlling soil phosphorus loss with surface runoff in Huihe National Nature Reserve by principal component and path analysis methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jing; Su, Derong; Lv, Shihai; Diao, Zhaoyan; Bu, He; Wo, Qiang

    2018-01-01

    Phosphorus (P) loss with surface runoff accounts for the P input to and acceleration of eutrophication of the freshwater. Many studies have focused on factors affecting P loss with surface runoff from soils, but rarely on the relationship among these factors. In the present study, rainfall simulation on P loss with surface runoff was conducted in Huihe National Nature Reserve, in Hulunbeier grassland, China, and the relationships between P loss with surface runoff, soil properties, and rainfall conditions were examined. Principal component analysis and path analysis were used to analyze the direct and indirect effects on P loss with surface runoff. The results showed that P loss with surface runoff was closely correlated with soil electrical conductivity, soil pH, soil Olsen P, soil total nitrogen (TN), soil total phosphorus (TP), and soil organic carbon (SOC). The main driving factors which influenced P loss with surface runoff were soil TN, soil pH, soil Olsen P, and soil water content. Path analysis and determination coefficient analysis indicated that the standard multiple regression equation for P loss with surface runoff and each main factor was Y = 7.429 - 0.439 soil TN - 6.834 soil pH + 1.721 soil Olsen-P + 0.183 soil water content (r = 0.487, p runoff. The effect of physical and chemical properties of undisturbed soils on P loss with surface runoff was discussed, and the soil water content and soil Olsen P were strongly positive influences on the P loss with surface runoff.

  5. Deforestation trends of tropical dry forests in central Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianchi, Carlos A.; Haig, Susan M.

    2013-01-01

    Tropical dry forests are the most threatened forest type in the world yet a paucity of research about them stymies development of appropriate conservation actions. The Paranã River Basin has the most significant dry forest formations in the Cerrado biome of central Brazil and is threatened by intense land conversion to pastures and agriculture. We examined changes in Paranã River Basin deforestation rates and fragmentation across three time intervals that covered 31 yr using Landsat imagery. Our results indicated a 66.3 percent decrease in forest extent between 1977 and 2008, with an annual rate of forest cover change of 3.5 percent. Landscape metrics further indicated severe forest loss and fragmentation, resulting in an increase in the number of fragments and reduction in patch sizes. Forest fragments in flatlands have virtually disappeared and the only significant forest remnants are mostly found over limestone outcrops in the eastern part of the basin. If current patterns persist, we project that these forests will likely disappear within 25 yr. These patterns may be reversed with creation of protected areas and involvement of local people to preserve small fragments that can be managed for restoration.

  6. Strategies and perspectives of influential environmental organizations toward tropical deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozanne, L.K.; Smith, P.M.

    1993-01-01

    In recent years, environmental nongovernment organizations (NGOs) have been active in alerting the public and governments to tropical forest issues. Many feel that these efforts have begun to affect the trade in tropical timber and influence the perceptions of logging in the tropics. However, the influence of environmental organizations is not restricted to tropical timber trade but has the potential to impact the global wood products industry. The wood products industry has an opportunity to address these pressures by understanding the strategies and perceptions of the environmental community on this issue and developing proactive strategies to deal with the situation. This study included a phase 1 prestudy, which reported the results of interview with over 39 environmental NGOs in both the US and Europe to develop an overview of this complex industry. A phase 2 followup fax questionnaire was administered to the most relevant US environmental NGOs in order to classify them on two important criteria: (1) their level of specialization; and (2) their organizational strategy. This paper provides an overview of the complex issues in the environmental debate regarding tropical deforestation and how environmental organizations are attempting to address these issues

  7. Increasing beef production could lower greenhouse gas emissions in Brazil if decoupled from deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira Silva, R.; Barioni, L. G.; Hall, J. A. J.; Folegatti Matsuura, M.; Zanett Albertini, T.; Fernandes, F. A.; Moran, D.

    2016-05-01

    Recent debate about agricultural greenhouse gas emissions mitigation highlights trade-offs inherent in the way we produce and consume food, with increasing scrutiny on emissions-intensive livestock products. Although most research has focused on mitigation through improved productivity, systemic interactions resulting from reduced beef production at the regional level are still unexplored. A detailed optimization model of beef production encompassing pasture degradation and recovery processes, animal and deforestation emissions, soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and upstream life-cycle inventory was developed and parameterized for the Brazilian Cerrado. Economic return was maximized considering two alternative scenarios: decoupled livestock-deforestation (DLD), assuming baseline deforestation rates controlled by effective policy; and coupled livestock-deforestation (CLD), where shifting beef demand alters deforestation rates. In DLD, reduced consumption actually leads to less productive beef systems, associated with higher emissions intensities and total emissions, whereas increased production leads to more efficient systems with boosted SOC stocks, reducing both per kilogram and total emissions. Under CLD, increased production leads to 60% higher emissions than in DLD. The results indicate the extent to which deforestation control contributes to sustainable intensification in Cerrado beef systems, and how alternative life-cycle analytical approaches result in significantly different emission estimates.

  8. An integrated framework for evaluating the effects of deforestation on ecosystem services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, X P; Huang, C; Townshend, J R

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation often results in massive carbon emissions and loss of ecosystem services. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrated approach to quantitatively derive changes in forest carbon stock and changes in the economic value of forest carbon due to deforestation. Combining the best available remote sensing and socioeconomic datasets, this approach establishes a comprehensive baseline of deforestation in terms of area, carbon and monetary value change. We applied this end-to-end evaluation method in the Brazilian state of Rondonia to assess the ecological and economic effects of its recent deforestation from 2000 to 2005. Our results suggest that deforestation occurred at an average rate of 2834 km 2 /yr during the study period, leading to 31 TgC/yr ''committed carbon emissions'' from deforestation. Coupling with the social cost of carbon at $23/tC and a market discount rate at 7%, this translates to $622 million U.S. dollars/yr loss in the economic value of forest carbon

  9. Including carbon emissions from deforestation in the carbon footprint of Brazilian beef.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cederberg, Christel; Persson, U Martin; Neovius, Kristian; Molander, Sverker; Clift, Roland

    2011-03-01

    Effects of land use changes are starting to be included in estimates of life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, so-called carbon footprints (CFs), from food production. Their omission can lead to serious underestimates, particularly for meat. Here we estimate emissions from the conversion of forest to pasture in the Legal Amazon Region (LAR) of Brazil and present a model to distribute the emissions from deforestation over products and time subsequent to the land use change. Expansion of cattle ranching for beef production is a major cause of deforestation in the LAR. The carbon footprint of beef produced on newly deforested land is estimated at more than 700 kg CO(2)-equivalents per kg carcass weight if direct land use emissions are annualized over 20 years. This is orders of magnitude larger than the figure for beef production on established pasture on non-deforested land. While Brazilian beef exports have originated mainly from areas outside the LAR, i.e. from regions not subject to recent deforestation, we argue that increased production for export has been the key driver of the pasture expansion and deforestation in the LAR during the past decade and this should be reflected in the carbon footprint attributed to beef exports. We conclude that carbon footprint standards must include the more extended effects of land use changes to avoid giving misleading information to policy makers, retailers, and consumers.

  10. Deforestation and Forest Fragmentation in South Ecuador since the 1970s - Losing a Hotspot of Biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapia-Armijos, María Fernanda; Homeier, Jürgen; Espinosa, Carlos Iván; Leuschner, Christoph; de la Cruz, Marcelino

    2015-01-01

    Deforestation and fragmentation are major components of global change; both are contributing to the rapid loss of tropical forest area with important implications for ecosystem functioning and biodiversity conservation. The forests of South Ecuador are a biological 'hotspot' due to their high diversity and endemism levels. We examined the deforestation and fragmentation patterns in this area of high conservation value using aerial photographs and Aster satellite scenes. The registered annual deforestation rates of 0.75% (1976-1989) and 2.86% (1989-2008) for two consecutive survey periods, the decreasing mean patch size and the increasing isolation of the forest fragments show that the area is under severe threat. Approximately 46% of South Ecuador's original forest cover had been converted by 2008 into pastures and other anthropogenic land cover types. We found that deforestation is more intense at lower elevations (premontane evergreen forest and shrubland) and that the deforestation front currently moves in upslope direction. Improved awareness of the spatial extent, dynamics and patterns of deforestation and forest fragmentation is urgently needed in biologically diverse areas like South Ecuador.

  11. Estimating rainforest biomass stocks and carbon loss from deforestation and degradation in Papua New Guinea 1972-2002: Best estimates, uncertainties and research needs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Jane; Shearman, Phil; Ash, Julian; Kirkpatrick, J B

    2010-01-01

    Reduction of carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and forest degradation is being considered a cost-effective way of mitigating the impacts of global warming. If such reductions are to be implemented, accurate and repeatable measurements of forest cover change and biomass will be required. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), which has one of the world's largest remaining areas of tropical forest, we used the best available data to estimate rainforest carbon stocks, and emissions from deforestation and degradation. We collated all available PNG field measurements which could be used to estimate carbon stocks in logged and unlogged forest. We extrapolated these plot-level estimates across the forested landscape using high-resolution forest mapping. We found the best estimate of forest carbon stocks contained in logged and unlogged forest in 2002 to be 4770 Mt (+/-13%). Our best estimate of gross forest carbon released through deforestation and degradation between 1972 and 2002 was 1178 Mt (+/-18%). By applying a long-term forest change model, we estimated that the carbon loss resulting from deforestation and degradation in 2001 was 53 Mt (+/-18%), rising from 24 Mt (+/-15%) in 1972. Forty-one percent of 2001 emissions resulted from logging, rising from 21% in 1972. Reducing emissions from logging is therefore a priority for PNG. The large uncertainty in our estimates of carbon stocks and fluxes is primarily due to the dearth of field measurements in both logged and unlogged forest, and the lack of PNG logging damage studies. Research priorities for PNG to increase the accuracy of forest carbon stock assessments are the collection of field measurements in unlogged forest and more spatially explicit logging damage studies. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Fast Virtual Fractional Flow Reserve Based Upon Steady-State Computational Fluid Dynamics Analysis: Results From the VIRTU-Fast Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Paul D; Silva Soto, Daniel Alejandro; Feher, Jeroen F A; Rafiroiu, Dan; Lungu, Angela; Varma, Susheel; Lawford, Patricia V; Hose, D Rodney; Gunn, Julian P

    2017-08-01

    Fractional flow reserve (FFR)-guided percutaneous intervention is superior to standard assessment but remains underused. The authors have developed a novel "pseudotransient" analysis protocol for computing virtual fractional flow reserve (vFFR) based upon angiographic images and steady-state computational fluid dynamics. This protocol generates vFFR results in 189 s (cf >24 h for transient analysis) using a desktop PC, with <1% error relative to that of full-transient computational fluid dynamics analysis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that physiological lesion significance was influenced less by coronary or lesion anatomy (33%) and more by microvascular physiology (59%). If coronary microvascular resistance can be estimated, vFFR can be accurately computed in less time than it takes to make invasive measurements.

  13. Migration to the Maya Biosphere Reserve, Guatemala: Why place matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, David L

    2008-01-01

    Virtually all migration research examines international migration or urbanization. Yet understudied rural migrants are of critical concern for environmental conservation and rural sustainable development. Despite the fact that a relatively small number of all migrants settle remote rural frontiers, these are the agents responsible for perhaps most of the tropical deforestation on the planet. Further, rural migrants are among the most destitute people worldwide in terms of economic and human development. While a host of research has investigated deforestation resulting from frontier migration, and a modest literature has emerged on frontier development, this article explores the necessary antecedent to tropical deforestation and poverty along agricultural frontiers: out-migration from origin areas. The data come from a 2000 survey with community leaders and key informants in 16 municipios of migrant origin to the Maya Biosphere Reserve (MBR), Petén, Guatemala. A common denominator among communities of migration origin to the Petén frontier was unequal resource access, usually land. Nevertheless, the factors driving resource scarcity were widely variable. Land degradation, land consolidation, and population growth prevailed in some communities but not in others. Despite similar exposure to community and regional level push factors, most people in the sampled communities did not out-migrate, suggesting that any one or combination of factors is not necessarily sufficient for out-migration.

  14. Range Analysis and Terrain Preference of Adult Southern White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum in a South African Private Game Reserve: Insights into Carrying Capacity and Future Management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Thompson

    Full Text Available The Southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum is a threatened species, central to the tourism appeal of private game reserves in South Africa. Privately owned reserves in South Africa tend to be smaller than government run reserves such as Kruger National Park. Because of their relatively small size and the often heterogeneous nature of the landscape private game reserve managers benefit from detailed knowledge of white rhinoceros terrain selection preferences, which can be assessed from their ranging behaviours. We collected adult and sub-adult white rhinoceros distribution data over a 15 month period, calculating individual range size using kernel density estimation analysis within a GIS. From this, terrain selectivity was calculated using 50% and 95% kernels to extract terrain composition values. Jacob's correction of the Ivlev's selectivity index was subsequently applied to the terrain composition of each individual to identify trends in selectivity. Results reveal that adult males hold exclusive territories considerably smaller than those found in previous work conducted in "open" or large reserves. Similarly, results for the size of male versus female territories were also not in keeping with those from previous field studies, with males, rather than females, having the larger territory requirement. Terrain selection for both genders and age classes (adult and sub-adult showed a strong preference for open grassland and avoidance of hill slope and riparian terrains. This research reveals white rhinoceros terrain selection preferences and how they influence range requirements in small, closed reserves. We conclude that this knowledge will be valuable in future white rhinoceros conservation management in small private game reserves, particularly in decisions surrounding removal of surplus individuals or augmentation of existing populations, calculation of reserve carrying capacity and future private reserve acquisition.

  15. Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA is announcing the availability of the final report, Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California. This report describes a causal assessment of the decline in the abundance of San Joaq...

  16. Institutional analysis of marine reserves and fisheries governance policy experiments : a case study of Nassau grouper conservation in the Turks and Caicos Islands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rudd, M.A.

    2003-01-01

    Keywords: Ecosystem-based fisheries management; marine reserves; marine protected areas; social capital; institutional analysis; Turks and Caicos Islands; Nassau grouper Many tropical fisheries around the world are in crisis because of the depletion of valuable reef species and the destruction of

  17. The deforestation problem in oil-importing developing countries: A capital theory approach to a renewable resource

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez, A.E.

    1991-01-01

    This study attempts an analysis of the effects of a crude-oil price shock on the tropical rain-forest biomass of oil-importing developing countries. It establishes the logical plausibility of this relationship between price shocks and deforestation by developing a stylized capital-theoretic intertemporal model with a trade constraint. This formulation allows one to determine the correct price path at each moment in time, an efficiency consideration. A second theoretical model purports to show that justification for the building of high dams as a response to energy shocks was based on myopic expectations of crude oil supplier behavior. Once rational supplier response to natural capital stocks is taken into consideration, a different result emerges suggesting a much larger optical biomass stock. Noting that deforestation is an externality with global repercussions and appealing to the logic of the Folk Theorem of game theory, the last chapter proposes an international collaborative effort whereby concerned nations would supply crude oil to oil-importing developing countries that have witnessed the deterioration of their forest biomass as a direct or indirect consequence of oil price shocks

  18. Carbon stock loss from deforestation through 2013 in Brazilian Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nogueira, Euler Melo; Yanai, Aurora M; Fonseca, Frederico O R; Fearnside, Philip Martin

    2015-03-01

    The largest carbon stock in tropical vegetation is in Brazilian Amazonia. In this ~5 million km(2) area, over 750,000 km(2) of forest and ~240,000 km(2) of nonforest vegetation types had been cleared through 2013. We estimate current carbon stocks and cumulative gross carbon loss from clearing of premodern vegetation in Brazil's 'Legal Amazonia' and 'Amazonia biome' regions. Biomass of 'premodern' vegetation (prior to major increases in disturbance beginning in the 1970s) was estimated by matching vegetation classes mapped at a scale of 1 : 250,000 and 29 biomass means from 41 published studies for vegetation types classified as forest (2317 1-ha plots) and as either nonforest or contact zones (1830 plots and subplots of varied size). Total biomass (above and below-ground, dry weight) underwent a gross reduction of 18.3% in Legal Amazonia (13.1 Pg C) and 16.7% in the Amazonia biome (11.2 Pg C) through 2013, excluding carbon loss from the effects of fragmentation, selective logging, fires, mortality induced by recent droughts and clearing of forest regrowth. In spite of the loss of carbon from clearing, large amounts of carbon were stored in stands of remaining vegetation in 2013, equivalent to 149 Mg C ha(-1) when weighted by the total area covered by each vegetation type in Legal Amazonia. Native vegetation in Legal Amazonia in 2013 originally contained 58.6 Pg C, while that in the Amazonia biome contained 56 Pg C. Emissions per unit area from clearing could potentially be larger in the future because previously cleared areas were mainly covered by vegetation with lower mean biomass than the remaining vegetation. Estimates of original biomass are essential for estimating losses to forest degradation. This study offers estimates of cumulative biomass loss, as well as estimates of premodern carbon stocks that have not been represented in recent estimates of deforestation impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Analysis of the herbaceous undergrowth of the woody savanna in the Fathala reserve, Delta du Saloum National park (Senegal)

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hejcmanová, P.; Hejcman, M.; Camara, A. A.; Antonínová, M.; Pavlů, V.; Černý, Tomáš; Ba, A. T.

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 138, č. 2 (2006), s. 119-228 ISSN 0778-4031 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA6093404 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : vegetation analysis * herb layer * woody savanna Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 0.208, year: 2006

  20. Conservation Beyond Park Boundaries: The Impact of Buffer Zones on Deforestation and Mining Concessions in the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisse, Mikaela J.; Naughton-Treves, Lisa C.

    2016-08-01

    Many researchers have tested whether protected areas save tropical forest, but generally focus on parks and reserves, management units that have internationally recognized standing and clear objectives. Buffer zones have received considerably less attention because of their ambiguous rules and often informal status. Although buffer zones are frequently dismissed as ineffective, they warrant attention given the need for landscape-level approaches to conservation and their prevalence around the world—in Peru, buffer zones cover >10 % of the country. This study examines the effectiveness of buffer zones in the Peruvian Amazon to (a) prevent deforestation and (b) limit the extent of mining concessions. We employ covariate matching to determine the impact of 13 buffer zones on deforestation and mining concessions from 2007 to 2012. Despite variation between sites, these 13 buffer zones have prevented ~320 km2 of forest loss within their borders during the study period and ~1739 km2 of mining concessions, an outcome associated with the special approval process for granting formal concessions in these areas. However, a closer look at the buffer zone around the Tambopata National Reserve reveals the difficulties of controlling illegal and informal activities. According to interviews with NGO employees, government officials, and community leaders, enforcement of conservation is limited by uncertain institutional responsibilities, inadequate budgets, and corruption, although formal and community-based efforts to block illicit mining are on the rise. Landscape-level conservation not only requires clear legal protocol for addressing large-scale, formal extractive activities, but there must also be strategies and coordination to combat illegal activities.

  1. Conservation Beyond Park Boundaries: The Impact of Buffer Zones on Deforestation and Mining Concessions in the Peruvian Amazon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisse, Mikaela J; Naughton-Treves, Lisa C

    2016-08-01

    Many researchers have tested whether protected areas save tropical forest, but generally focus on parks and reserves, management units that have internationally recognized standing and clear objectives. Buffer zones have received considerably less attention because of their ambiguous rules and often informal status. Although buffer zones are frequently dismissed as ineffective, they warrant attention given the need for landscape-level approaches to conservation and their prevalence around the world-in Peru, buffer zones cover >10 % of the country. This study examines the effectiveness of buffer zones in the Peruvian Amazon to (a) prevent deforestation and (b) limit the extent of mining concessions. We employ covariate matching to determine the impact of 13 buffer zones on deforestation and mining concessions from 2007 to 2012. Despite variation between sites, these 13 buffer zones have prevented ~320 km(2) of forest loss within their borders during the study period and ~1739 km(2) of mining concessions, an outcome associated with the special approval process for granting formal concessions in these areas. However, a closer look at the buffer zone around the Tambopata National Reserve reveals the difficulties of controlling illegal and informal activities. According to interviews with NGO employees, government officials, and community leaders, enforcement of conservation is limited by uncertain institutional responsibilities, inadequate budgets, and corruption, although formal and community-based efforts to block illicit mining are on the rise. Landscape-level conservation not only requires clear legal protocol for addressing large-scale, formal extractive activities, but there must also be strategies and coordination to combat illegal activities.

  2. Simulating Deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, under Changing Government Policies and Socioeconomic Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kayla Stan

    Full Text Available Agricultural expansion is causing deforestation in Minas Gerais, Brazil, converting savanna and tropical dry forest to farmland, and in 2012, Brazil's Forest Code was revised with the government reducing deforestation restrictions. Understanding the effects of policy change on rates and locations of natural ecosystem loss is imperative. In this paper, deforestation in Minas Gerais was simulated annually until 2020 using Dinamica Environment for Geoprocessing Objects (Dinamica EGO. This system is a state-of-the-art land use and cover change (LUCC model which incorporates government policy, landscape maps, and other biophysical and anthropogenic datasets. Three studied scenarios: (i business as usual, (ii increased deforestation, and (iii decreased deforestation showed more transition to agriculture from shrubland compared to forests, and consistent locations for most deforestation. The probability of conversion to agriculture is strongly tied to areas with the smallest patches of original biome remaining. Increases in agricultural revenue are projected to continue with a loss of 25% of the remaining Cerrado land in the next decade if profit is maximized. The addition of biodiversity value as a tax on land sale prices, estimated at over $750,000,000 USD using the cost of extracting and maintaining current species ex-situ, can save more than 1 million hectares of shrubland with minimal effects on the economy of the State of Minas Gerais. With environmental policy determining rates of deforestation and economics driving the location of land clearing, site-specific protection or market accounting of externalities is needed to balance economic development and conservation.

  3. Deforestation projections for carbon-rich peat swamp forests of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Douglas O; Hardiono, Martin; Meijaard, Erik

    2011-09-01

    We evaluated three spatially explicit land use and cover change (LUCC) models to project deforestation from 2005-2020 in the carbon-rich peat swamp forests (PSF) of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Such models are increasingly used to evaluate the impact of deforestation on carbon fluxes between the biosphere and the atmosphere. We considered both business-as-usual (BAU) and a forest protection scenario to evaluate each model's accuracy, sensitivity, and total projected deforestation and landscape-level fragmentation patterns. The three models, Dinamica EGO (DE), GEOMOD and the Land Change Modeler (LCM), projected similar total deforestation amounts by 2020 with a mean of 1.01 million ha (Mha) and standard deviation of 0.17 Mha. The inclusion of a 0.54 Mha strict protected area in the LCM simulations reduced projected loss to 0.77 Mha over 15 years. Calibrated parameterizations of the models using nearly identical input drivers produced very different landscape properties, as measured by the number of forest patches, mean patch area, contagion, and Euclidean nearest neighbor determined using Fragstats software. The average BAU outputs of the models suggests that Central Kalimantan may lose slightly less than half (45.1%) of its 2005 PSF by 2020 if measures are not taken to reduce deforestation there. The relatively small reduction of 0.24 Mha in deforestation found in the 0.54 Mha protection scenario suggests that these models can identify potential leakage effects in which deforestation is forced to occur elsewhere in response to a policy intervention.

  4. DETERMINANTS OF ADAPTATION TO DEFORESTATION AMONG FARMERS IN MADAGALI LOCAL GOVERNMENT AREA OF ADAMAWA STATE, NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.B. Mustapha

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the determinants of adaptation to deforestation among farmers in Madagali Local Government Area of Adamawa state, Nigeria. Structured interview schedule were used to obtain information from 200 respondents selected through simple random sampling techniques. The data collected were analyzed using descriptive (frequencies and percentages and inferential (chi-square test statistics. The result indicated that majority (84% of the respondents were male with 21-40 years of age representing 58.50%. The study also showed that most (45% of the respondents had attained post primary education with majority (80% having 6 and above years of farming experience. The respondents perceived fuel wood extraction as the major (42% cause of deforestation in the study area. The result showed that the most (30.50% frequently employed adaptation strategy against deforestation was reducing quantity of fire wood consumption. The study further showed that the factors which significantly influenced adaptation to deforestation among the respondents were age, farming experience and educational status with X2=9.216, 8.697 and 11.238 at P<0.05 respectively. While those factors which did not influence adaptation to deforestation among the respondents were gender, access to agricultural credit and access to extension services with X2=1.286, 7.923 and 5.862 at P<0.05 respectively. The major constraints faced by respondents in adaptation to deforestation were lack of capital and lack of accessible alternative energy. The study recommends that awareness campaign should be mounted to increase the level of knowledge of respondents on the significance of adaptation to deforestation. Respondents should also be encouraged towards establishment of adaptation cooperative societies in order to take advantage of some government policies and programmes.

  5. Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragão, Luiz Eduardo O C; Malhi, Yadvinder; Barbier, Nicolas; Lima, Andre; Shimabukuro, Yosio; Anderson, Liana; Saatchi, Sassan

    2008-05-27

    Understanding the interplay between climate and land-use dynamics is a fundamental concern for assessing the vulnerability of Amazonia to climate change. In this study, we analyse satellite-derived monthly and annual time series of rainfall, fires and deforestation to explicitly quantify the seasonal patterns and relationships between these three variables, with a particular focus on the Amazonian drought of 2005. Our results demonstrate a marked seasonality with one peak per year for all variables analysed, except deforestation. For the annual cycle, we found correlations above 90% with a time lag between variables. Deforestation and fires reach the highest values three and six months, respectively, after the peak of the rainy season. The cumulative number of hot pixels was linearly related to the size of the area deforested annually from 1998 to 2004 (r2=0.84, p=0.004). During the 2005 drought, the number of hot pixels increased 43% in relation to the expected value for a similar deforested area (approx. 19000km2). We demonstrated that anthropogenic forcing, such as land-use change, is decisive in determining the seasonality and annual patterns of fire occurrence. Moreover, droughts can significantly increase the number of fires in the region even with decreased deforestation rates. We may expect that the ongoing deforestation, currently based on slash and burn procedures, and the use of fires for land management in Amazonia will intensify the impact of droughts associated with natural climate variability or human-induced climate change and, therefore, a large area of forest edge will be under increased risk of fires.

  6. Cost-effectiveness of reducing emissions from tropical deforestation, 2016-2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, Jonah; Engelmann, Jens

    2017-12-01

    Reducing tropical deforestation is potentially a large-scale and low-cost strategy for mitigating climate change. Yet previous efforts to project the cost-effectiveness of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from future deforestation across the tropics were hampered by crude available data on historical forest loss. Here we use recently available satellite-based maps of annual forest loss between 2001-2012, along with information on topography, accessibility, protected status, potential agricultural revenue, and an observed inverted-U-shaped relationship between forest cover loss and forest cover, to project tropical deforestation from 2016-2050 under alternative policy scenarios and to construct new marginal abatement cost curves for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation. We project that without new forest conservation policies 289 million hectares of tropical forest will be cleared from 2016-2050, releasing 169 GtCO2. A carbon price of US20/tCO2 (50/tCO2) across tropical countries would avoid 41 GtCO2 (77 GtCO2) from 2016-2050. By comparison, we estimate that Brazil’s restrictive policies in the Amazon between 2004-2012 successfully decoupled potential agricultural revenue from deforestation and reduced deforestation by 47% below what would have otherwise occurred, preventing the emission of 5.2 GtCO2. All tropical countries enacting restrictive anti-deforestation policies as effective as those in the Brazilian Amazon between 2004-2012 would avoid 58 GtCO2 from 2016-2050.

  7. Assessment of Cerebrovascular Reserve before and after STA-MCA Bypass Surgery by SPECT and SPM Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O, Joo-Hyun; Jang, Kyung-Sool; Yoo, Ie-Ryung

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to objectively assess the efficacy of superficial temporal artery to middle cerebral artery (STA-MCA) bypass surgery using Technetium (Tc)-99m-ethyl cysteinate dimer (ECD) single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) in patients who underwent STA-MCA bypass surgery. Brain perfusion SPECT images obtained at baseline and after the administration of acetazolamide were reconstructed using statistical parametric mapping in 23 patients, both before and after STA-MCA bypass surgery. The clinical outcomes of the surgery were also recorded and compared with the hemodynamic changes. A voxel with an uncorrected p-value of less than 0.001 was considered to be statistically significant. SPECT images of the territory supplied by the bypass graft showed an increase in both cerebrovascular flow and reserve at baseline, and the increase was significantly higher following the administration of acetazolamide. All patients showed improvement of clinical symptoms and increased blood flow to the left temporal, parietal, and frontal cortices as well as the thalamus. Brain SPECT effectively and objectively demonstrated the improved outcomes of STA-MCA bypass surgery, and thus may be used in postoperative analyses

  8. Advanced 2-dimensional quantitative coronary angiographic analysis for prediction of fractional flow reserve in intermediate coronary stenoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opolski, Maksymilian P; Pregowski, Jerzy; Kruk, Mariusz; Kepka, Cezary; Staruch, Adam D; Witkowski, Adam

    2014-07-01

    The widespread clinical application of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) has resulted in increased referral patterns of patients with intermediate coronary stenoses to invasive coronary angiography. We evaluated the application of advanced quantitative coronary angiography (A-QCA) for predicting fractional flow reserve (FFR) in intermediate coronary lesions detected on CCTA. Fifty-six patients with 66 single intermediate coronary lesions (≥ 50% to 80% stenosis) on CCTA prospectively underwent coronary angiography and FFR. A-QCA including calculation of the Poiseuille-based index defined as the ratio of lesion length to the fourth power of the minimal lumen diameter (MLD) was performed. Significant stenosis was defined as FFR ≤ 0.80. The mean FFR was 0.86 ± 0.09, and 18 lesions (27%) were functionally significant. FFR correlated with lesion length (R=-0.303, P=0.013), MLD (R=0.527, P44%, and >69%, respectively (maximum negative predictive value of 94% for MLA, maximum positive predictive value of 58% for diameter stenosis). The Poiseuille-based index was the most accurate (C statistic 0.86, sensitivity 100%, specificity 71%, positive predictive value 56%, and negative predictive value 100%) predictor of FFR ≤ 0.80, but showed the lowest interobserver agreement (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.37). A-QCA might be used to rule out significant ischemia in intermediate stenoses detected by CCTA. The diagnostic application of the Poiseuille-based angiographic index is precluded by its high interobserver variability.

  9. A methodology to estimate impacts of domestic policies on deforestation: Compensated Successful Efforts for “avoided deforestation” (REDD)

    OpenAIRE

    Pascale Combes Motel; Romain Pirard; Jean-Louis Combes

    2011-01-01

    Climate change mitigation would benefit from Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) in developing countries. The REDD mechanism is in charge of distilling the right incentives for fostering forest conservation with appropriate compensation of foregone revenues, which in turn is related to avoided deforestation (how many hectares of forests are saved). Although any prediction of deforestation rates (i.e. business-as-usual scenarios) is challenging, and any negotiated targe...

  10. Decreasing Deforestation in the Southern Brazilian Amazon—The Role of Administrative Sanctions in Mato Grosso State

    OpenAIRE

    Paulo Queiroz Sousa

    2016-01-01

    Forest conservation efforts through regulatory enforcement routinely failed to prevent large scale deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. However, a turning point occurred in 2005, when a combination of unfavorable economic conditions and an unprecedented coordinated effort between governmental institutions resulted in a gradual slowdown in deforestation. The continuation of this deforestation slowdown in an environment of economic recovery and expansion after 2009 suggests that regulatory en...

  11. Shell Petroleum exploration and production 1980 to 1998: production profits, reserves analysis and key financial statistics in money and in real terms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents tables of Shell's earnings from oil and gas exploration and producing activities for the eastern and western hemispheres giving details of sales and net proceeds; Shell earnings analysis money of the day for worldwide oil and gas production between 1980 and 1998; key financial ratios for 1980-1998 for Shell petroleum exploration and production; Shell oil and natural gas liquids reserves changes by technical category (1980-1998); Shell natural gas reserves changes by technical category for 1989-1998; and finally Shell's petroleum exploration and production wells for 1980-1998

  12. Multitemporal analysis of forest fragmentation in Hindu Kush Himalaya-a case study from Khangchendzonga Biosphere Reserve, Sikkim, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Mohit; Areendran, G; Raj, Krishna; Sharma, Ankita; Joshi, P K

    2016-10-01

    Forests in the mountains are a treasure trove; harbour a large biodiversity; and provide fodder, firewood, timber and non-timber forest products; all of these are essential for human survival in the highest mountains on earth. The present paper attempts a spatiotemporal assessment of forest fragmentation and changes in land use land cover (LULC) pattern using multitemporal satellite data over a time span of around a decade (2000-2009), within the third highest protected area (PA) in the world. The fragmentation analysis using Landscape Fragmentation Tool (LFT) depicts a decrease in large core, edge and patches areas by 5.93, 3.64 and 0.66 %, respectively, while an increase in non-forest and perforated areas by 6.59 and 4.01 %, respectively. The land cover dynamics shows a decrease in open forest, alpine scrub, alpine meadows, snow and hill shadow areas by 2.81, 0.39, 8.18, 3.46 and 0.60 %, respectively, and there is an increase in dense forest and glacier area by 4.79 and 10.65 %, respectively. The change analysis shows a major transformation in areas from open forest to dense forest and from alpine meadows to alpine scrub. In order to quantify changes induced by forest fragmentation and to characterize composition and configuration of LULC mosaics, fragmentation indices were computed using Fragstats at class level, showing the signs of accelerated fragmentation. The outcome of the analysis revealed the effectiveness of geospatial tools coupled with landscape ecology in characterization and quantification of forest fragmentation and land cover changes. The present study provides a baseline database for sustainable conservation planning that will benefit the subsistence livelihoods in the region. Recommendations made based on the present analysis will help to recover forest and halt the pessimistic effects of fragmentation and land cover changes on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the region.

  13. Analysis of the Governance Structures in Japan's Biosphere Reserves: Perspectives from Bottom-Up and Multilevel Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Toshinori; Wakamatsu, Nobuhiko

    2018-01-01

    This paper analyzes the governance structures of Biosphere Reserves (BRs) in Japan by focusing on six criteria that elucidate the main characteristics therein: general information (nomination process, year of designation, size, and population), legal frameworks, stakeholder identification, and decision-making processes (number of municipalities and role of consociation), administrative institutions (human resources, budgetary situation, and expense distribution), executed BR implementation activities, and participatory/collaborative frameworks. This research consists of a literature review, a questionnaire administered to the secretariats of seven existing BRs and follow-up interviews. Three main characteristics of BRs were identified. First, a responsible local government(s) is nominated to manage the BR rather than the central government. Consequently, BR implementation in Japan is led by those municipalities that have strong motivations for regional development using the BR concept. Second, two types of BR governance structures exist in Japan: the single municipality type and the multi-municipality type. All BRs have so called Kyougikai, a consociation for decision-making, consultation and/or collaboration among stakeholders. In the single municipality structure, the consociation includes diverse actors from private and community sectors, while in the multi-municipality structure, consociations are based in more diplomatic settings and only include members of the public sector. Third, gaps between pre/post-Seville BR implementation sites were identified. The motivations for the formation of pre-Seville BRs, which were designated in 1980 in a top-down fashion prior to an awareness of BRs, varied greatly from those BRs nominated by municipalities after 2010. The authors identified fewer administrative resources and activities associated with the pre-Seville sites.

  14. Decreasing Deforestation in the Southern Brazilian Amazon—The Role of Administrative Sanctions in Mato Grosso State

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Queiroz Sousa

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Forest conservation efforts through regulatory enforcement routinely failed to prevent large scale deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. However, a turning point occurred in 2005, when a combination of unfavorable economic conditions and an unprecedented coordinated effort between governmental institutions resulted in a gradual slowdown in deforestation. The continuation of this deforestation slowdown in an environment of economic recovery and expansion after 2009 suggests that regulatory enforcement achieved a measure of success not experienced before. In this study, the impact of fines, embargoes on rural private properties, and confiscation of means of production and produce on deforestation in the Southern Amazon state of Mato Grosso was considered through regression and GIS-based analyses. It was found that while all three sanctions were negatively correlated with deforestation, there were important differences in their level of enforcement. Embargoes were effectively implemented and showed high deforestation deterrence effectiveness, but the actual collection of the values of fines issued was extremely low, which casts doubts on their actual effectiveness as a deforestation deterrence mechanism. The results suggest that while sanctions for illegal deforestation have played an important role in the slowdown in deforestation, measures to increase the collection of fines issued are urgently needed.

  15. Subdivisions of the adult zebrafish pallium based on molecular marker analysis [version 2; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Ganz

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: The telencephalon shows a remarkable structural diversity among vertebrates. In particular, the everted telencephalon of ray-finned fishes has a markedly different morphology compared to the evaginated telencephalon of all other vertebrates. This difference in development has hampered the comparison between different areas of the pallium of ray-finned fishes and the pallial nuclei of all other vertebrates. Various models of homology between pallial subdivisions in ray-finned fishes and the pallial nuclei in tetrapods have been proposed based on connectional, neurochemical, gene expression and functional data. However, no consensus has been reached so far. In recent years, the analysis of conserved developmental marker genes has assisted the identification of homologies for different parts of the telencephalon among several tetrapod species. Results: We have investigated the gene expression pattern of conserved marker genes in the adult zebrafish (Danio rerio pallium to identify pallial subdivisions and their homology to pallial nuclei in tetrapods. Combinatorial expression analysis of ascl1a, eomesa, emx1, emx2, emx3, and Prox1 identifies four main divisions in the adult zebrafish pallium. Within these subdivisions, we propose that Dm is homologous to the pallial amygdala in tetrapods and that the dorsal subdivision of Dl is homologous to part of the hippocampal formation in mouse. We have complemented this analysis be examining the gene expression of emx1, emx2 and emx3 in the zebrafish larval brain. Conclusions: Based on our gene expression data, we propose a new model of subdivisions in the adult zebrafish pallium and their putative homologies to pallial nuclei in tetrapods. Pallial nuclei control sensory, motor, and cognitive functions, like memory, learning and emotion. The identification of pallial subdivisions in the adult zebrafish and their homologies to pallial nuclei in tetrapods will contribute to the use of the zebrafish

  16. Local deforestation patterns and their driving forces of tropical dry forest in two municipalities in Southern Oaxaca, Mexico (1985-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Galicia

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The tropical dry forest is an ecosystem that is undergoing rapid changes. Although global driving forces behind these changes have been addressed at a local scale, spatio-temporal dynamics are still largely unknown. The main objective of this study was to identify the causes governing the dynamics of changes in land use and land cover in the tropical dry forest in two municipalities in Southern México. Satellite imagery and air photographs were used in a GIS context to produce maps of land use and land cover for 1985, 1995 and 2006. A number of statistical methods (Markov chains, general lineal models and regression tree analysis were applied to identify the proximate and the underlying causes of deforestation, agriculture being the most important one. When agriculture is mainly for self consumption, topographic factors determine its location. Increasing job opportunities in the tourism sector has resulted in the abandonment of agricultural land; consequently, the forest has recovered. Different studies have examined the dynamics of local deforestation and its driving forces in México; however, this study considered both spatial and temporal elements in order to identify the most important underlying driving forces of deforestation and its dynamics at local scale, and also compared two neighboring municipalities.

  17. Laryngeal mask placement in a teaching institution: analysis of difficult placements [version 1; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasia D Katsiampoura

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: Laryngeal mask airway (LMA placement is now considered a common airway management practice. Although there are many studies which focus on various airway techniques, research regarding difficult LMA placement is limited, particularly for anesthesiologist trainees. In our retrospective analysis we tried to identify predictive factors of difficult LMA placement in an academic training program. Methods: This retrospective analysis was derived from a research airway database, where data were collected prospectively at the Memorial Hermann Hospital, Texas Medical Center, Houston, TX, USA, from 2008 to 2010. All non-obstetric adult patients presenting for elective surgery requiring general anesthesia, were enrolled in this study: anesthesiology residents primarily managed the airways. The level of difficulty, number of attempts, and type of the extraglottic device placement were retrieved. Results: Sixty-nine unique Laryngeal Mask Airways (uLMAs were utilized as a primary airway device. Two independent predictors for difficult LMA placement were identified: gender and neck circumference. The sensitivity for one factor is 87.5% with a specificity of 50%. However with two risk factors, the specificity increases to the level of 93% and the sensitivity is 63%. Conclusion: In a large academic training program, besides uLMA not been used routinely, two risk factors for LMA difficulty were identified, female gender and large neck circumference. Neck circumference is increasingly being recognized as a significant predictor across the spectrum of airway management difficulties while female gender has not been previously reported as a risk factor for difficult LMA placement.

  18. Evaluating Regional Scale Deforestation in the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longobardi, P.; Montenegro, A.; Beltrami, H.; Eby, M.

    2011-12-01

    Forests play a key role in influencing the Earths climate and at the same time are affected by changing climates. At this point it is estimated that 15-30% of Earths natural forests have already been converted to pasture or cropland. With such large amounts of forest being converted to cropland and grassland, it is important to determine the climatic effects of these actions. To date, most modelling efforts towards understanding the climatic effects of deforestation have simulated global deforestation or have been based on experiments where trees were removed from large areas, i.e. the entire Amazon or all forests above 50 N. Here we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate model which contains a fully coupled carbon cycle, to evaluate the response to deforestation of 10%, 25%, 50% and 100% of the forested areas in three latitude bands: high (above 50°N), mid (above ± 30°) and low (between ± 30°). All simulations were transient simulations, allowing for changes to atmospheric forcings following the A2 emissions scenario. High latitude deforestation lead to cooling (-.05 °C to -0.45 °C) and increase in soil carbon (0.5 to 3 x 1014 kg) for all fractions of deforestation. Due in part to the increase in soil carbon, there was a decrease in atmospheric CO2 in the 50% (-20 ppm) and 100% (-60 ppm) high-latitude deforestation simulations. Low-latitude deforestation initially produced warming in all scenarios (0.1 to 0.25 °C), although all were colder (-0.05 to -0.1 °C) than the control by the end of the simulation. Atmospheric CO2 increased in all simulations (40 to 80 ppm), as well as soil carbon (2 to 16 x 1013 kg). Mid-latitude deforestation also lead to initial warming (0.01 to 0.1 °C) followed by cooling (-0.01 to -0.1 °C). Mid latitude deforestation also produced an increase in soil carbon (2 to 10 x 1013 kg), and atmospheric CO2 (0 to 25ppm). In all three latitude bands forest dieback was observed. Results range from 7% to 37% for high

  19. Forests and drugs: coca-driven deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávalos, Liliana M; Bejarano, Adriana C; Hall, Mark A; Correa, H Leonardo; Corthals, Angelique; Espejo, Oscar J

    2011-02-15

    Identifying drivers of deforestation in tropical biodiversity hotspots is critical to assess threats to particular ecosystems and species and proactively plan for conservation. We analyzed land cover change between 2002 and 2007 in the northern Andes, Chocó, and Amazon forests of Colombia, the largest producer of coca leaf for the global cocaine market, to quantify the impact of this illicit crop on forest dynamics, evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas in this context, and determine the effects of eradication on deforestation. Landscape-level analyses of forest conversion revealed that proximity to new coca plots and a greater proportion of an area planted with coca increased the probability of forest loss in southern Colombia, even after accounting for other covariates and spatial autocorrelation. We also showed that protected areas successfully reduced forest conversion in coca-growing regions. Neither eradication nor coca cultivation predicted deforestation rates across municipalities. Instead, the presence of new coca cultivation was an indicator of municipalities, where increasing population led to higher deforestation rates. We hypothesize that poor rural development underlies the relationship between population density and deforestation in coca-growing areas. Conservation in Colombia's vast forest frontier, which overlaps with its coca frontier, requires a mix of protected areas and strategic rural development to succeed.

  20. Mapping Deforestation in North Korea Using Phenology-Based Multi-Index and Random Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihua Jin

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Phenology-based multi-index with the random forest (RF algorithm can be used to overcome the shortcomings of traditional deforestation mapping that involves pixel-based classification, such as ISODATA or decision trees, and single images. The purpose of this study was to investigate methods to identify specific types of deforestation in North Korea, and to increase the accuracy of classification, using phenological characteristics extracted with multi-index and random forest algorithms. The mapping of deforestation area based on RF was carried out by merging phenology-based multi-indices (i.e., normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, normalized difference water index (NDWI, and normalized difference soil index (NDSI derived from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer products and topographical variables. Our results showed overall classification accuracy of 89.38%, with corresponding kappa coefficients of 0.87. In particular, for forest and farm land categories with similar phenological characteristic (e.g., paddy, plateau vegetation, unstocked forest, hillside field, this approach improved the classification accuracy in comparison with pixel-based methods and other classes. The deforestation types were identified by incorporating point data from high-resolution imagery, outcomes of image classification, and slope data. Our study demonstrated that the proposed methodology could be used for deciding on the restoration priority and monitoring the expansion of deforestation areas.

  1. Impact of the ongoing Amazonian deforestation on local precipitation: A GCM simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, G. K.; Sud, Y. C.; Atlas, R.

    1995-01-01

    Numerical simulation experiments were conducted to delineate the influence of in situ deforestation data on episodic rainfall by comparing two ensembles of five 5-day integrations performed with a recent version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model (GCM) that has a simple biosphere model (SiB). The first set, called control cases, used the standard SiB vegetation cover (comprising 12 biomes) and assumed a fully forested Amazonia, while the second set, called deforestation cases, distinguished the partially deforested regions of Amazonia as savanna. Except for this difference, all other initial and prescribed boundary conditions were kept identical in both sets of integrations. The differential analyses of these five cases show the following local effects of deforestation. (1) A discernible decrease in evapotranspiration of about 0.80 mm/d (roughly 18%) that is quite robust in the averages for 1-, 2-, and 5-day forecasts. (2) A decrease in precipitation of about 1.18 mm/d (roughly 8%) that begins to emerge even in 1-2 day averages and exhibits complex evolution that extends downstream with the winds. (3) A significant decrease in the surface drag force (as a consequence of reduced surface roughness of deforested regions) that, in turn, affects the dynamical structure of moisture convergence and circulation. The surface winds increase significantly during the first day, and thereafter the increase is well maintained even in the 2- and 5-day averages.

  2. An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosonuma, Noriko; Herold, Martin; De Sy, Veronique; De Fries, Ruth S; Brockhaus, Maria; Verchot, Louis; Angelsen, Arild; Romijn, Erika

    2012-01-01

    Countries are encouraged to identify drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in the development of national strategies and action plans for REDD+. In this letter we provide an assessment of proximate drivers of deforestation and forest degradation by synthesizing empirical data reported by countries as part of their REDD+ readiness activities, CIFOR country profiles, UNFCCC national communications and scientific literature. Based on deforestation rate and remaining forest cover 100 (sub)tropical non-Annex I countries were grouped into four forest transition phases. Driver data of 46 countries were summarized for each phase and by continent, and were used as a proxy to estimate drivers for the countries with missing data. The deforestation drivers are similar in Africa and Asia, while degradation drivers are more similar in Latin America and Asia. Commercial agriculture is the most important driver of deforestation, followed by subsistence agriculture. Timber extraction and logging drives most of the degradation, followed by fuelwood collection and charcoal production, uncontrolled fire and livestock grazing. The results reflect the most up to date and comprehensive overview of current national-level data availability on drivers, which is expected to improve over time within the frame of the UNFCCC REDD+ process. (letter)

  3. Impact of Deforestation on Agro-Environmental Variables in Cropland, North Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chul-Hee Lim

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation in North Korea is becoming the epitome of the environmental change occurring in the Korean Peninsula. This study estimates the agro-environmental variables of North Korea’s croplands and analyzes the impact of deforestation using the GEPIC (GIS-based EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model and time-series land cover maps. To identify the changes in agricultural quality under deforestation, wind erosion, water erosion, organic carbon loss, and runoff were selected as the agro-environmental variables having an impact on cropland stability and productivity. Land cover maps spanning the past three decades showed that 75% of the forests were converted to croplands and that 69% of all converted croplands were originally forests, confirming the significant correlation between deforestation and cropland expansion in North Korea. Despite limitations in the verification data, we conducted qualitative and quantitative validation of the estimated variables and confirmed that our results were reasonable. Over the past 30 years, agro-environmental variables showed no clear time-series changes resulting from climate change, but changes due to spatial differences were seen. Negative changes in organic carbon loss, water erosion, and runoff were observed, regardless of the crop type. On newly-converted agricultural lands, runoff is 1.5 times higher and water-driven erosion and soil organic loss are more than twice as high compared to older croplands. The results showed that the agro-environment affected by deforestation had an impact on cropland stability and productivity.

  4. Sources of water vapor to economically relevant regions in Amazonia and the effect of deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pires, G. F.; Fontes, V. C.

    2017-12-01

    The Amazon rain forest helps regulate the regional humid climate. Understanding the effects of Amazon deforestation is important to preserve not only the climate, but also economic activities that depend on it, in particular, agricultural productivity and hydropower generation. This study calculates the source of water vapor contributing to the precipitation on economically relevant regions in Amazonia according to different scenarios of deforestation. These regions include the state of Mato Grosso, which produces about 9% of the global soybean production, and the basins of the Xingu and Madeira, with infrastructure under construction that will be capable to generate 20% of the electrical energy produced in Brazil. The results show that changes in rainfall after deforestation are stronger in regions nearest to the ocean and indicate the importance of the continental water vapor source to the precipitation over southern Amazonia. In the two more continental regions (Madeira and Mato Grosso), decreases in the source of water vapor in one region were offset by increases in contributions from other continental regions, whereas in the Xingu basin, which is closer to the ocean, this mechanism did not occur. As a conclusion, the geographic location of the region is an important determinant of the resiliency of the regional climate to deforestation-induced regional climate change. The more continental the geographic location, the less climate changes after deforestation.

  5. Factors driving deforestation in common-pool resources in northern Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Verdin, Gustavo; Kim, Yeon-Su; Hospodarsky, Denver; Tecle, Aregai

    2009-01-01

    The theory of collective action has been extensively used to explain the relationship between common-based property regimes and the conservation of natural resources. However, there are two key components of the theory that literature reports as puzzles in which no consensus exists about their effect on the performance of common-pool resources. These are group size and heterogeneity. This study analyzes the effects of these two key components on the effectiveness of community-based forestry, called ejidos, to protect their forest resources in northern Mexico. We used a multinomial logit model to determine the contribution of 16 explanatory variables to the dependent variable, a measure of success of ejidos defined by the presence of deforested, degraded, or forested conditions. The results show that corn yield, marginality, percent of forest area, total population, a forest value index, distance to markets, roads and towns, were all statistically significant in driving deforested conditions. Deforestation becomes more attractive for poor communities and as corn yield and distance to towns, roads, and markets decrease. In general, group size and heterogeneity had no significant effects on the presence of deforested conditions. Deforestation is driven by resource-specific characteristics, such as location and soil productivity, not by ejidos' attributes, such as total area or number of members. We argue that current institutional policies focusing on the structure of property right arrangements should be shifted (1) to provide better technology for land cultivation; (2) to reduce the marginality problem in poor communities; and (3) to strengthen local institutions.

  6. The effectiveness of contrasting protected areas in preventing deforestation in Madre de Dios, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuohelainen, Anni Johanna; Coad, Lauren; Marthews, Toby R; Malhi, Yadvinder; Killeen, Timothy J

    2012-10-01

    Accurate monitoring of the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in decreasing deforestation is increasingly important given the vital role of forest protection in climate change mitigation. Recent studies on PA effectiveness have used remote-sensing imagery to compare deforestation rates within PAs to surrounding areas. However, remote-sensing data used in isolation provides limited information on the factors contributing to effectiveness. We used landscape-modelling techniques to estimate the effectiveness of ten PAs in Madre de Dios, Peru. Factors influencing PA effectiveness were investigated using in situ key-informant interviews. Although all of the PAs studied had positive effectiveness scores, those with the highest scores were ecotourism and conservation concessions, where monitoring and surveillance activities and good relations with surrounding communities were reported as possible factors in decreasing deforestation rates. Native community areas had the lowest scores, with deforestation mainly driven by internal resource use and population growth. Weak local governance and immigration were identified as underlying factors decreasing the effectiveness of protection, whereas good relations with surrounding communities and monitoring activity increased effectiveness. The results highlight the need to combine remote sensing with in situ information on PA management because identification of drivers and deterrents of deforestation is vital for improving the effectiveness of protection.

  7. Linking requirements with capabilities for deforestation monitoring in the context of the UNFCCC-REDD process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herold, Martin; Johns, Tracy

    2007-01-01

    As the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change nears the end of a two-year period of evaluation of the issue of reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries, participating countries have agreed on the need to address this globally important source of greenhouse gas emissions. Negotiations on policy frameworks to monitor and reduce deforestation rely on an understanding of the scientific and technical capacity to support these efforts. Current UNFCCC programs to improve observation of land and forest cover change can provide valuable input to a future policy mechanism focusing on deforestation emissions from developing countries. Countries participating in the current debate have officially referenced the value of remote sensing tools and methods for deforestation monitoring, and have identified specific needs and goals related to their implementation. Based on these identified needs, this paper outlines recommendations for a monitoring framework that can be globally applied with sufficient levels of accuracy and certainty. This framework can serve as a starting point for monitoring programs, and can be modified in response to expected progress in establishing an international policy framework for reducing emissions from deforestation

  8. Revision and partial analysis of the information of Forestall Reserves, Districts of Integrated Handling of renewable natural resources and special handling areas, declared in Colombia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortes Martinez, Ingrid Vanesa

    2002-01-01

    A revision and a partial analysis is made of the information of Forestall Reserves, Districts of Integrated Handling of renewable natural resources and Areas of Special Handling in Colombia whose main purpose is the conservation and the sustainable handling of the natural resources for the maintenance of the goods and services, derived of the forest, however, these areas are under constant intervention that which has caused the subtraction of considerable regions of the forestall reserves. With this revision and analysis it is looked for to support to the General Address of Ecosystems of the Environment Ministry, with the purpose of impelling the process of consolidation of an upgraded of information system that it guides the classification, handling and administration of these Areas

  9. Progressive recovery of a tropical deforested stream community after a flash flood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Cerqueira Marques

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available AIM: In this study, we evaluated and compared community attributes from a tropical deforested stream, located in a pasture area, in a period before (PRED I and three times after (POSD I, II, and III a flash flood, in order to investigate the existence of temporal modifications in community structure that suggests return to conditions previous to the flash flood. METHODS: Biota samples included algae, macrophytes, macroinvertebrates, and fish assemblages. Changes in stream physical structure we also evaluated. Similarity of the aquatic biota between pre and post-disturbance periods was examined by exploratory ordination, known as Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling associated with Cluster Analysis, using quantitative and presence/absence Bray-Curtis similarity coefficients. Presence and absence data were used for multivariate correlation analysis (Relate Analysis in order to investigate taxonomic composition similarity of biota between pre and post-disturbance periods. RESULTS: Our results evidenced channel simplification and an expressive decrease in richness and abundance of all taxa right after the flood, followed by subsequent increases of these parameters in the next three samples, indicating trends towards stream community recovery. Bray-Curtis similarity coefficients evidenced a greater community structure disparity among the period right after the flood and the subsequent ones. Multivariate correlation analysis evidenced a greater correlation between macroinvertebrates and algae/macrophytes, demonstrating the narrow relation between their recolonization dynamics. CONCLUSIONS: Despite overall community structure tended to return to previous conditions, recolonization after the flood was much slower than that reported in literature. Finally, the remarkably high flood impact along with the slow recolonization could be a result of the historical presence of anthropic impacts in the region, such as siltation, riparian forest complete depletion

  10. Quantitative analysis of Indonesia’s reserves and energy security as an evaluation by the nation in facing global competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiratama, Hadi; Yerido, Hezron; Tetrisyanda, Rizki; Ginting, Rizqy R.; Wibawa, Gede

    2015-01-01

    Energy security has become a serious concern for all countries in the world and each country has its own definiton for measuring its energy security. The objective of this study was to measure energy security of Indonesia quantitatively by comparing it with other countries and provide some recommendations for enhancing the energy security. In this study, the database was developed from various sources and was cross-checked to confirm validity of the data. Then the parameters of energy security were defined, where all of data will be processed towards the selected parameters. These parameters (e.g. Primary Energy mix, TPES/capita, FEC/capita, Self Sufficiency, Refining capacity, Overseas Energy Resources, Resources diversification) are the standards used to produce an analysis or evaluation of national energy management. Energy balances for Indonesia and 10 selected countries (USA, Germany, Russia, England, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and India) were presented from 2009 to 2013. With a base index of 1.0 for Indonesia, calculated energy security index capable of representing Indonesia energy security compared relatively to other countries were also presented and discussed in detail. In 2012, Indonesia security index is ranked 11 from 11 countries, while USA and South Korea are the highest with security index of 3.36 and 2.89, respectively. According to prediction for 2025, Indonesia energy security is ranked 10 from 11 countries with only Thailand has lower security index (0.98). This result shows that Indonesia energy security was vulnerable to crisis and must be improved. Therefore this study proposed some recommendations to improve Indonesia energy security. Indonesia need to increase oil production by constructing new refinery plants, developing infrastructure for energy distribution to reduce the potential of energy shortage and accelerating the utilization of renewable energy to reduce the excessive use of primary energy. From energy policy

  11. Quantitative analysis of Indonesia’s reserves and energy security as an evaluation by the nation in facing global competition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wiratama, Hadi; Yerido, Hezron; Tetrisyanda, Rizki; Ginting, Rizqy R.; Wibawa, Gede, E-mail: gwibawa@chem-eng.its.ac.id [Department of Chemical Engineering, Faculty of Industrial Technology, Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology (ITS), Kampus ITS Sukolilo, Surabaya 60111 (Indonesia)

    2015-12-29

    Energy security has become a serious concern for all countries in the world and each country has its own definiton for measuring its energy security. The objective of this study was to measure energy security of Indonesia quantitatively by comparing it with other countries and provide some recommendations for enhancing the energy security. In this study, the database was developed from various sources and was cross-checked to confirm validity of the data. Then the parameters of energy security were defined, where all of data will be processed towards the selected parameters. These parameters (e.g. Primary Energy mix, TPES/capita, FEC/capita, Self Sufficiency, Refining capacity, Overseas Energy Resources, Resources diversification) are the standards used to produce an analysis or evaluation of national energy management. Energy balances for Indonesia and 10 selected countries (USA, Germany, Russia, England, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and India) were presented from 2009 to 2013. With a base index of 1.0 for Indonesia, calculated energy security index capable of representing Indonesia energy security compared relatively to other countries were also presented and discussed in detail. In 2012, Indonesia security index is ranked 11 from 11 countries, while USA and South Korea are the highest with security index of 3.36 and 2.89, respectively. According to prediction for 2025, Indonesia energy security is ranked 10 from 11 countries with only Thailand has lower security index (0.98). This result shows that Indonesia energy security was vulnerable to crisis and must be improved. Therefore this study proposed some recommendations to improve Indonesia energy security. Indonesia need to increase oil production by constructing new refinery plants, developing infrastructure for energy distribution to reduce the potential of energy shortage and accelerating the utilization of renewable energy to reduce the excessive use of primary energy. From energy policy

  12. Quantitative analysis of Indonesia's reserves and energy security as an evaluation by the nation in facing global competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiratama, Hadi; Yerido, Hezron; Tetrisyanda, Rizki; Ginting, Rizqy R.; Wibawa, Gede

    2015-12-01

    Energy security has become a serious concern for all countries in the world and each country has its own definiton for measuring its energy security. The objective of this study was to measure energy security of Indonesia quantitatively by comparing it with other countries and provide some recommendations for enhancing the energy security. In this study, the database was developed from various sources and was cross-checked to confirm validity of the data. Then the parameters of energy security were defined, where all of data will be processed towards the selected parameters. These parameters (e.g. Primary Energy mix, TPES/capita, FEC/capita, Self Sufficiency, Refining capacity, Overseas Energy Resources, Resources diversification) are the standards used to produce an analysis or evaluation of national energy management. Energy balances for Indonesia and 10 selected countries (USA, Germany, Russia, England, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and India) were presented from 2009 to 2013. With a base index of 1.0 for Indonesia, calculated energy security index capable of representing Indonesia energy security compared relatively to other countries were also presented and discussed in detail. In 2012, Indonesia security index is ranked 11 from 11 countries, while USA and South Korea are the highest with security index of 3.36 and 2.89, respectively. According to prediction for 2025, Indonesia energy security is ranked 10 from 11 countries with only Thailand has lower security index (0.98). This result shows that Indonesia energy security was vulnerable to crisis and must be improved. Therefore this study proposed some recommendations to improve Indonesia energy security. Indonesia need to increase oil production by constructing new refinery plants, developing infrastructure for energy distribution to reduce the potential of energy shortage and accelerating the utilization of renewable energy to reduce the excessive use of primary energy. From energy policy

  13. Road Impact on Deforestation and Jaguar Habitat Loss in the Mayan Forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Conde, Dalia Amor

    2008-01-01

    The construction of roads, either as an economic tool or as necessity for the implementation of other infrastructure projects is increasing in the tropical forest worldwide. However, roads are one of the main deforestation drivers in the tropics. In this study we analyzed the impact of road...... and important role in high developed areas. In the short term, the impact of a road in a low developed area is lower than in a road in a high developed area, which could be the result of the lag effect between road construction and forest colonization. This is consistent since roads resulted to be a significant...... investments on both deforestation and jaguar habitat loss, in the Mayan Forest. As well we used these results to forecast the impact of two road investments planned in the region. Our results show that roads are the single deforestation driver in low developed areas, whether many other drivers play...

  14. Conservation implications of deforestation across an elevational gradient in the Eastern Arc Mountains, Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hall, Jaclyn; Burgess, Neil David; Lovett, Jon

    2009-01-01

    Deforestation is a major threat to the conservation of biodiversity, especially within global centers of endemism for plants and animals. Elevation, the major environmental gradient in mountain regions of the world, produces a rapid turnover of species, where some species may exist only in narrow...... elevations and target conservation and restoration efforts throughout these ecosystems' entire elevational ranges.......Deforestation is a major threat to the conservation of biodiversity, especially within global centers of endemism for plants and animals. Elevation, the major environmental gradient in mountain regions of the world, produces a rapid turnover of species, where some species may exist only in narrow...... elevational ranges. We use newly compiled datasets to assess the conservation impact of deforestation on threatened trees across an elevational gradient within the Eastern Arc Mountains of Tanzania. The Eastern Arc has suffered an estimated 80% total loss in historical forest area and has lost 25% of forest...

  15. Investigating the drivers of deforestation in Indonesia and their role in REDD+ policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Rosa, Michele; Knudsen, Marie Trydeman; Hermansen, John Erik

    GHG targets; with the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions countries are simply expected to set a non-binding target, including a no-action option. De facto, GHG cuts are highly controversial because strictly related to economic activity. Reducing deforestation remains the most feasible...... strategy to achieve a quick GHG reduction, obtaining also other non-carbon benefits. Yet, net deforestation is increasing in forest rich countries such as Indonesia and Brazil. Taking as a starting point the Indonesian experience with the REDD+ (Reducing Deforestation and Forest Degradation) program...... modelled in LCA with an arbitrary amortization time. A new challenge posed by emerging plantations is their flexibility to supply alternatively different markets, depending on the highest market prices (flex-crop). Land occupation by palm oil plantations in Indonesia increased by more than 400% in the last...

  16. Biomass fuel burning and its implications: Deforestation and greenhouse gases emissions in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tahir, S.N.A.; Rafique, M.; Alaamer, A.S.

    2010-01-01

    Pakistan is facing problem of deforestation. Pakistan lost 14.7% of its forest habitat between 1990 and 2005 interval. This paper assesses the present forest wood consumption rate by 6000 brick kilns established in the country and its implications in terms of deforestation and emission of greenhouse gases. Information regarding consumption of forest wood by the brick kilns was collected during a manual survey of 180 brick kiln units conducted in eighteen provincial divisions of country. Considering annual emission contributions of three primary GHGs i.e., CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O, due to burning of forest wood in brick kiln units in Pakistan and using IPCC recommended GWP indices, the combined CO 2 -equivalent has been estimated to be 533019 t y -1 . - Consumption of forest wood in the brick industry poses the problem of deforestation in Pakistan in addition to release of GHGs in the environment owing to biomass burning.

  17. Effects of large-scale deforestation on precipitation in the monsoon regions: remote versus local effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devaraju, N; Bala, Govindasamy; Modak, Angshuman

    2015-03-17

    In this paper, using idealized climate model simulations, we investigate the biogeophysical effects of large-scale deforestation on monsoon regions. We find that the remote forcing from large-scale deforestation in the northern middle and high latitudes shifts the Intertropical Convergence Zone southward. This results in a significant decrease in precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions (East Asia, North America, North Africa, and South Asia) and moderate precipitation increases in the Southern Hemisphere monsoon regions (South Africa, South America, and Australia). The magnitude of the monsoonal precipitation changes depends on the location of deforestation, with remote effects showing a larger influence than local effects. The South Asian Monsoon region is affected the most, with 18% decline in precipitation over India. Our results indicate that any comprehensive assessment of afforestation/reforestation as climate change mitigation strategies should carefully evaluate the remote effects on monsoonal precipitation alongside the large local impacts on temperatures.

  18. National Scale Monitoring Reporting and Verification of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Guyana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bholanath, P.; Cort, K.

    2015-04-01

    Monitoring deforestation and forest degradation at national scale has been identified as a national priority under Guyana's REDD+ Programme. Based on Guyana's MRV (Monitoring Reporting and Verification) System Roadmap developed in 2009, Guyana sought to establish a comprehensive, national system to monitor, report and verify forest carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation in Guyana. To date, four national annual assessments have been conducted: 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. Monitoring of forest change in 2010 was completed with medium resolution imagery, mainly Landsat 5. In 2011, assessment was conducted using a combination of Landsat (5 and 7) and for the first time, 5m high resolution imagery, with RapidEye coverage for approximately half of Guyana where majority of land use changes were taking place. Forest change in 2013 was determined using high resolution imagery for the whole of Guyana. The current method is an automated-assisted process of careful systematic manual interpretation of satellite imagery to identify deforestation based on different drivers of change. The minimum mapping unit (MMU) for deforestation is 1 ha (Guyana's forest definition) and a country-specific definition of 0.25 ha for degradation. The total forested area of Guyana is estimated as 18.39 million hectares (ha). In 2012 as planned, Guyana's forest area was reevaluated using RapidEye 5 m imagery. Deforestation in 2013 is estimated at 12 733 ha which equates to a total deforestation rate of 0.068%. Significant progress was made in 2012 and 2013, in mapping forest degradation. The area of forest degradation as measured by interpretation of 5 m RapidEye satellite imagery in 2013 was 4 352 ha. All results are subject to accuracy assessment and independent third party verification.

  19. A game theoretical model of deforestation in human-environment relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, António; Koeppl, Heinz; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Satake, Akiko

    2009-05-07

    We studied a two-person game regarding deforestation in human-environment relationships. Each landowner manages a single land parcel where the state of land-use is forested, agricultural, or abandoned. The landowner has two strategies available: forest conservation and deforestation. The choice of deforestation provides a high return to the landowner, but it degrades the forest ecosystem services produced on a neighboring land parcel managed by a different landowner. Given spatial interactions between the two landowners, each landowner decides which strategy to choose by comparing the expected discounted utility of each strategy. Expected discounted utility is determined by taking into account the current and future utilities to be received, according to the state transition on the two land parcels. The state transition is described by a Markov chain that incorporates a landowner's choice about whether to deforest and the dynamics of agricultural abandonment and forest regeneration. By considering a stationary distribution of the Markov chain for land-use transitions, we derive explicit conditions for Nash equilibrium. We found that a slow regeneration of forests favors mutual cooperation (forest conservation). As the forest regenerates faster, mutual cooperation transforms to double Nash equilibria (mutual cooperation and mutual defection), and finally mutual defection (deforestation) leads to a unique Nash equilibrium. Two different types of social dilemma emerge in our deforestation game. The stag-hunt dilemma is most likely to occur under an unsustainable resource supply, where forest regenerates extremely slowly but agricultural abandonment happens quite rapidly. In contrast, the prisoner's dilemma is likely under a persistent or circulating supply of resources, where forest regenerates rapidly and agricultural abandonment occurs slowly or rapidly. These results show how humans and the environment mutually shape the dilemma structure in forest management

  20. Elements for the expected mechanisms on 'reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation, REDD' under UNFCCC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollicone, D.; Freibauer, A.; Schulze, E. D.; Braatz, S.; Grassi, G.; Federici, S.

    2007-10-01

    Carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation account for about 20% of global anthropogenic emissions. Strategies and incentives for reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) have emerged as one of the most active areas in the international climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While the current negotiations focus on a REDD mechanism in developing countries, it should be recognized that risks of carbon losses from forests occur in all climate zones and also in industrialized countries. A future climate change agreement would be more effective if it included all carbon losses and gains from land use in all countries and climate zones. The REDD mechanism will be an important step towards reducing emissions from land use change in developing countries, but needs to be followed by steps in other land use systems and regions. A national approach to REDD and significant coverage globally are needed to deal with the risk that deforestation and degradation activities are displaced rather than avoided. Favourable institutional and governance conditions need to be established that guarantee in the long-term a stable incentive and control system for maintaining forest carbon stocks. Ambitious emission reductions from deforestation and forest degradation need sustained financial incentives, which go beyond positive incentives for reduced emissions but also give incentives for sustainable forest management. Current data limitations need—and can be—overcome in the coming years to allow accurate accounting of reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation. A proper application of the conservativeness approach in the REDD context could allow a simplified reporting of emissions from deforestation in a first phase, consistent with the already agreed UNFCCC reporting principles.

  1. Soy moratorium impacts on soybean and deforestation dynamics in Mato Grosso, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastens, Jude H; Brown, J Christopher; Coutinho, Alexandre Camargo; Bishop, Christopher R; Esquerdo, Júlio César D M

    2017-01-01

    Previous research has established the usefulness of remotely sensed vegetation index (VI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to characterize the spatial dynamics of agriculture in the state of Mato Grosso (MT), Brazil. With these data it has become possible to track MT agriculture, which accounts for ~85% of Brazilian Amazon soy production, across periods of several years. Annual land cover (LC) maps support investigation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of agriculture as they relate to forest cover and governance and policy efforts to lower deforestation rates. We use a unique, spatially extensive 9-year (2005-2013) ground reference dataset to classify, with approximately 80% accuracy, MODIS VI data, merging the results with carefully processed annual forest and sugarcane coverages developed by Brazil's National Institute for Space Research to produce LC maps for MT for the 2001-2014 crop years. We apply the maps to an evaluation of forest and agricultural intensification dynamics before and after the Soy Moratorium (SoyM), a governance effort enacted in July 2006 to halt deforestation for the purpose of soy production in the Brazilian Amazon. We find the pre-SoyM deforestation rate to be more than five times the post-SoyM rate, while simultaneously observing the pre-SoyM forest-to-soy conversion rate to be more than twice the post-SoyM rate. These observations support the hypothesis that SoyM has played a role in reducing both deforestation and subsequent use for soy production. Additional analyses explore the land use tendencies of deforested areas and the conceptual framework of horizontal and vertical agricultural intensification, which distinguishes production increases attributable to cropland expansion into newly deforested areas as opposed to implementation of multi-cropping systems on existing cropland. During the 14-year study period, soy production was found to shift from predominantly single-crop systems to majority

  2. Impact of deforestation on known malaria vectors in Sonitpur district of Assam, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Rekha; Nagpal, B N; Singh, V P; Srivastava, Aruna; Dev, Vas; Sharma, M C; Gupta, H P; Tomar, Arvind Singh; Sharma, Shashi; Gupta, Sanjeev Kumar

    2014-09-01

    An alarming rate of deforestation has been reported from Sonitpur district of Assam, India therefore, a study was initiated during 2009 using remote sensing (RS) to assess deforested areas in the district and to study the impact on malaria vectors in order to formulate appropriate control strategy. RS imageries of 2000 and 2009 were used to assess deforested areas in the selected district. Entomological data were collected in four surveys during 2009-2011. The data were analyzed statistically using test of single proportions (χ 2 ) and pair-wise comparison. Vector incrimination was done using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and entomological inoculation rate (EIR) was calculated to estimate transmission intensity. The deforested areas were identified in north-western parts of Sonitpur district falling in Dhekiajuli Primary Health Centre (PHC). The forest cover of the PHC decreased >50% during 2000-2009. Five species of anopheline vectors were collected. Anopheles minimus sensu lato (s.l.) was collected least abundantly while An. culicifacies s.l. prevailed most abundantly and significant difference was observed between proportions of the collected vector species. Pair-wise comparison between An. culicifacies s.l. and An. minimus s.l. was also found statistically significant indicating that An. culicifacies s.l. is establishing its population in deforested areas. An. culicifacies s.l. was found ELISA positive and EIR was measured as 4.8 during transmission season. An. culicifacies s.l. replaced An. minimus s.l., the vector of malaria in northeast India and was found ELISA positive, therefore could have possible role in malaria transmission in the deforested areas of the district.

  3. Elements for the expected mechanisms on 'reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation, REDD' under UNFCCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mollicone, D; Freibauer, A; Schulze, E D; Braatz, S; Grassi, G; Federici, S

    2007-01-01

    Carbon emissions from deforestation and degradation account for about 20% of global anthropogenic emissions. Strategies and incentives for reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) have emerged as one of the most active areas in the international climate change negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). While the current negotiations focus on a REDD mechanism in developing countries, it should be recognized that risks of carbon losses from forests occur in all climate zones and also in industrialized countries. A future climate change agreement would be more effective if it included all carbon losses and gains from land use in all countries and climate zones. The REDD mechanism will be an important step towards reducing emissions from land use change in developing countries, but needs to be followed by steps in other land use systems and regions. A national approach to REDD and significant coverage globally are needed to deal with the risk that deforestation and degradation activities are displaced rather than avoided. Favourable institutional and governance conditions need to be established that guarantee in the long-term a stable incentive and control system for maintaining forest carbon stocks. Ambitious emission reductions from deforestation and forest degradation need sustained financial incentives, which go beyond positive incentives for reduced emissions but also give incentives for sustainable forest management. Current data limitations need-and can be-overcome in the coming years to allow accurate accounting of reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation. A proper application of the conservativeness approach in the REDD context could allow a simplified reporting of emissions from deforestation in a first phase, consistent with the already agreed UNFCCC reporting principles

  4. Alternatives to deforestation: Steps toward sustainable use of the Amazon Rain Forest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, A.B.

    1990-01-01

    The high rate of deforestation of the Brazilian Amazon over the past two decades has jeopardized genetic diversity, contributed to regional and global climate change, caused erosion and flooding, destroyed forest resources, spread disease, and increased poverty. This book presents a selection of papers from an international conference that explored alternatives to deforestation of tropical forests. The alternatives described include natural forest management, agroforestry systems, and forest reestablishment on degraded pastures. The book should be useful to scientists, regional planners, and the broad scientific audience

  5. Quantifying rate of deforestation and CO2 emission in Peninsular Malaysia using Palsar imageries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdan, O.; Abd Rahman, K.; Samsudin, M.

    2016-06-01

    Increasing human population and the rapid growth of Malaysia's economy are often associated with various environmental disturbances which have been contributing to depletion of natural resources and climate change. The need for more spaces for numerous land development activities has made the existing forests suffer deforestation. The study was carried out in Peninsular Malaysia, which currently has about 5.9 million ha of forests. Phased array type L-band SAR (Palsar) and Palsar-2 images over the years 2010 and 2015, respectively were used to identify forest cover and deforestation occurrences resulted from various conversion of forests to other land uses. Forests have been identified from horizontal-vertical (HV) polarization and then classified into three major categories, which are inland, peat swamp and mangrove. Pixel subtraction technique was used to determine areas that have been changing from forests to other land uses. Forest areas have been found declined from about 6.1 million ha in year 2010 to some 5.9 million ha in 2015 due to conversion of forests to other land uses. Causes of deforestation have been identified and the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that has been emitted due to the deforestation activity has been determined in this study. Oil palm and rubber plantations expansion has been found the most prominent factor that caused deforestation in Peninsular Malaysia, especially in the states of Pahang, Terengganu, Johor and Kelantan. The rate of deforestation in the period was at 0.66% yr-1, which amounted a total of about 200,225 ha over the five years. Carbon loss was estimated at about 30.2 million Mg C, which has resulted in CO2 emission accounted at about 110.6 million Mg CO2. The rate of CO2 emission that has been resulted from deforestation was estimated at 22.1 million Mg CO2 yr-1. The study found that the use of a series of Palsar and Palsar-2 images, with a consistent, cloud-free images, are the most appropriate sensors to be used for

  6. Including the biogeochemical impacts of deforestation increases projected warming of climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Catherine; Monks, Sarah; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Forster, Piers; Rap, Alexandru; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Reddington, Carly; Wilson, Christopher

    2016-04-01

    Forests cover almost one third of the Earth's land area and their distribution is changing as a result of human activities. The presence, and removal, of forests affects the climate in many ways, with the net climate impact of deforestation dependent upon the relative strength of these effects (Betts, 2000; Bala et al., 2007; Davin and de Noblet-Ducoudré, 2010). In addition to controlling the surface albedo and exchanging carbon dioxide (CO2) and moisture with the atmosphere, vegetation emits biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs), which lead to the formation of biogenic secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and alter the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, affecting ozone (O3) and methane (CH4) concentrations. In this work, we combine a land-surface model with a chemical transport model, a global aerosol model, and a radiative transfer model to compare several radiative impacts of idealised deforestation scenarios in the present day. We find that the simulated reduction in biogenic SOA production, due to complete global deforestation, exerts a positive combined aerosol radiative forcing (RF) of between +308.0 and +362.7 mW m-2; comprised of a direct radiative effect of between +116.5 and +165.0 mW m-2, and a first aerosol indirect effect of between +191.5 and +197.7 mW m-2. We find that the reduction in O3 exerts a negative RF of -150.7 mW m-2 and the reduction in CH4 results in a negative RF of -76.2 mWm-2. When the impacts on biogenic SOA, O3 and CH4 are combined, global deforestation exerts an overall positive RF of between +81.1 and +135.9 mW m-2 through changes to short-lived climate forcers (SLCF). Taking these additional biogeochemical impacts into account increases the net positive RF of complete global deforestation, due to changes in CO2 and surface albedo, by 7-11%. Overall, our work suggests that deforestation has a stronger warming impact on climate than previously thought. References: Bala, G. et al., 2007. Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects

  7. Life-table studies revealed significant effects of deforestation on the development and survivorship of Anopheles minimus larvae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoming; Zhou, Guofa; Zhong, Daibin; Wang, Xiaoling; Wang, Ying; Yang, Zhaoqing; Cui, Liwang; Yan, Guiyun

    2016-06-06

    Many developing countries are experiencing rapid ecological changes such as deforestation and shifting agricultural practices. These environmental changes may have an important consequence on malaria due to their impact on vector survival and reproduction. Despite intensive deforestation and malaria transmission in the China-Myanmar border area, the impact of deforestation on malaria vectors in the border area is unknown. We conducted life table studies on Anopheles minimus larvae to determine the pupation rate and development time in microcosms under deforested, banana plantation, and forested environments. The pupation rate of An. minimus was 3.8 % in the forested environment. It was significantly increased to 12.5 % in banana plantations and to 52.5 % in the deforested area. Deforestation reduced larval-to-pupal development time by 1.9-3.3 days. Food supplementation to aquatic habitats in forested environments and banana plantations significantly increased larval survival rate to a similar level as in the deforested environment. Deforestation enhanced the survival and development of An. minimus larvae, a major malaria vector in the China-Myanmar border area. Experimental determination of the life table parameters on mosquito larvae under a variety of environmental conditions is valuable to model malaria transmission dynamics and impact by climate and environmental changes.

  8. Low dosing of gonadotropins in in vitro fertilization cycles for women with poor ovarian reserve: systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youssef, Mohamed Abdel-Fattah; van Wely, Madelon; Mochtar, Monique; Fouda, Usama Mohamed; Eldaly, Ashraf; El Abidin, Eman Zein; Elhalwagy, Ahmed; Mageed Abdallah, Ahmed Abdel; Zaki, Sherif Sameh; Abdel Ghafar, Mohamed Sayed; Mohesen, Mohamed Nagi; van der Veen, Fulco

    2018-02-01

    To evaluate the effectiveness of low doses of gonadotropins and gonadotropins combined with oral compounds compared with high doses of gonadotropins in ovarian stimulation regimens in terms of ongoing pregnancy per fresh IVF attempt in women with poor ovarian reserve undergoing IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) treatment. A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled studies that evaluate the effectiveness of low dosing of gonadotropins alone or combined with oral compounds compared with high doses of gonadotropins in women with poor ovarian reserve undergoing IVF/ICSI treatment. Not applicable. Subfertile women with poor ovarian reserve undergoing IVF/ICSI treatment. We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Library, and the Clinical Trials Registry using medical subject headings and free text terms up to June 2016, without language or year restrictions. We included randomized controlled studies (RCTs) enrolling subfertile women with poor ovarian reserve undergoing IVF/ICSI treatment and comparing low doses of gonadotropins and gonadotropins combined with oral compounds versus high doses of gonadotropins. We assessed the risk of bias using the criteria recommended by the Cochrane Collaboration. We pooled the results by meta-analysis using the fixed and random effects model. The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy rate (PR) per woman randomized. We retrieved 787 records. Fourteen RCTs (N = 2,104 women) were included in the analysis. Five studies (N = 717 women) compared low doses of gonadotropins versus high doses of gonadotropins. There was no evidence of a difference in ongoing PR (2 RCTs: risk rate 0.98, 95% confidence interval 0.62-1.57, I 2 = 0). Nine studies (N = 1,387 women) compared ovarian stimulation using gonadotropins combined with the oral compounds letrozole (n = 6) or clomiphene citrate (CC) (n = 3) versus high doses of gonadotropins. There was no evidence of a difference in ongoing PR (3 RCTs: risk

  9. Reserves Represented by Random Walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filipe, J A; Ferreira, M A M; Andrade, M

    2012-01-01

    The reserves problem is studied through models based on Random Walks. Random walks are a classical particular case in the analysis of stochastic processes. They do not appear only to study reserves evolution models. They are also used to build more complex systems and as analysis instruments, in a theoretical feature, of other kind of systems. In this work by studying the reserves, the main objective is to see and guarantee that pensions funds get sustainable. Being the use of these models considering this goal a classical approach in the study of pensions funds, this work concluded about the problematic of reserves. A concrete example is presented.

  10. Management reference for nature reserve networks based on MaxEnt modeling and gap analysis: a case study of the brown–eared pheasant in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Y.; Cui, B.; Qiu, X.; Ding, C.; Batool, I.

    2016-07-01

    Nature reserve designs and networks are important for wildlife and habitat conservation. Gap analyses are efficient and reliable tools for prioritizing habitat conservation efforts, especially when considering endangered species. We propose a conservation plan for the brown–eared pheasant, Crossoptilon mantchuricum, by identifying protection gap areas based on 14 existing nature reserves. A total of 45 locality sites and 11 environmental variables were selected according to the characteristics of habitat use of the brown–eared pheasant and applied to a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to obtain the species distribution. The MaxEnt model results showed a high prediction accuracy. The gap analysis results revealed that the Luliang Mountains in Shanxi and the Xiaowutai Mountains in Hebei had protection gaps. We found 458 km2 of optimum habitat and 1,390 km2 of moderately suitable habitat within the national nature reserve range. However, almost 1,861 km2 of the optimum habitat and 17,035 km2 of the moderately suitable habitat were unprotected, equivalent to 9.0% and 82.1%, respectively, of the total suitable habitat. Most of the unprotected area comprised moderately suitable habitat for brown–eared pheasant and should be prioritized in future conservation efforts. There are nine nature reserves along a north–to–south range in the Luliang Mountains that form a wildlife habitat corridor. To maintain the integrity, originality, and continuity of these habitats and thus protect brown–eared pheasants, local conservation departments should be strengthened to improve provincial nature reserve management and successfully carry out conservation efforts. (Author)