WorldWideScience

Sample records for reserve growth estimate

  1. Estimating Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Hakim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Accumulating foreign exchange reserves, despite their cost and their impacts on other macroeconomics variables, provides some benefits. This paper models such foreign exchange reserves. To measure the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves for import, it uses total reserves-to-import ratio (TRM. The chosen independent variables are gross domestic product growth, exchange rates, opportunity cost, and a dummy variable separating the pre and post 1997 Asian financial crisis. To estimate the risky TRM value, this paper uses conditional Value-at-Risk (VaR, with the help of Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle (GJR model to estimate the conditional volatility. The results suggest that all independent variables significantly influence TRM. They also suggest that the short and long run volatilities are evident, with the additional evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive past shocks. The VaR, which are calculated assuming both normal and t distributions, provide similar results, namely violations in 2005 and 2008.

  2. USGS world petroleum assessment 2000; new estimates of undiscovered oil and natural gas, including reserve growth, outside the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2000-01-01

    Oil and natural gas account for approximately 63 percent of the world’s total energy consumption. The U.S. Geological Survey periodically estimates the amount of oil and gas remaining to be found in the world. Since 1981, each of the last four of these assessments has shown a slight increase in the combined volume of identified reserves and undiscovered resources. The latest assessment estimates the volume of technically recoverable conventional oil and gas that may be added to the world's reserves, exclusive of the United States, in the next 30 years. The USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000 reports an increase in global petroleum resources, including a 20-percent increase in undiscovered oil and a 14-percent decrease in undiscovered natural gas compared to the previous assessment (table 1). These results have important implications for energy prices, policy, security, and the global resource balance.

  3. Extrapolating phosphorus production to estimate resource reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaccari, David A; Strigul, Nikolay

    2011-08-01

    Various indicators of resource scarcity and methods for extrapolating resource availability are examined for phosphorus. These include resource lifetime, and trends in resource price, ore grade and discovery rates, and Hubbert curve extrapolation. Several of these indicate increasing scarcity of phosphate resources. Calculated resource lifetime is subject to a number of caveats such as unanticipated future changes in resource discovery, mining and beneficiation technology, population growth or per-capita demand. Thus it should be used only as a rough planning index or as a relative indicator of potential scarcity. This paper examines the uncertainty in one method for estimating available resources from historical production data. The confidence intervals for the parameters and predictions of the Hubbert curves are computed as they relate to the amount of information available. These show that Hubbert-type extrapolations are not robust for predicting the ultimately recoverable reserves or year of peak production of phosphate rock. Previous successes of the Hubbert curve are for cases in which there exist alternative resources, which is not the situation for phosphate. It is suggested that data other than historical production, such as population growth, identified resources and economic factors, should be included in making such forecasts. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Geologic constraints on the upper limits of reserve growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Richard G.

    2001-01-01

    For many oil and gas fields, estimates of ultimate recovery (the sum of cumulative production plus estimated reserves) tend to increase from one year to the next, and the gain is called reserve growth. Forecasts of reserve growth by the U.S. Geological Survey rely on statistical analyses of historical records of oil and gas production and estimated reserves. The preproposal in this Open-File Report suggests that this traditional petroleum–engineering approach to reserve growth might be supplemented, or at least better understood, by using geological data from individual oil and gas fields, 3–D modeling software, and standard volumetric techniques to estimate in–place volumes of oil and gas. Such estimates, in turn, can be used to constrain the upper limits of reserve growth and ultimate recovery from those fields.

  5. Reserve growth in oil fields of the North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, T.R.; Gautier, D.L.

    2005-01-01

    The assessment of petroleum resources of the North Sea, as well as other areas of the world, requires a viable means to forecast the amount of growth of reserve estimates (reserve growth) for discovered fields and to predict the potential fully developed sizes of undiscovered fields. This study investigates the utility of North Sea oil field data to construct reserve-growth models. Oil fields of the North Sea provide an excellent dataset in which to examine the mechanisms, characteristics, rates and quantities of reserve growth because of the high level of capital investments, implementation of sophisticated technologies and careful data collection. Additionally, these field data are well reported and available publicly. Increases in successive annual estimat es of recoverable crude oil volumes indicate that oil fields in the North Sea, collectively and in each country, experience reserve growth. Specific patterns of reserve growth are observed among countries and primary producing reservoir-rock types. Since 1985, Norwegian oil fields had the greatest volume increase; Danish oil fields increased by the greatest percentage relative to 1985 estimates; and British oil fields experienced an increase in recoverable oil estimates for the first ten years since 1985, followed by a slight reduction. Fields producing primarily from clastic reservoirs account for the majority of the estimated recoverable oil and, therefore, these fields had the largest volumetric increase. Fields producing primarily from chalk (limestone) reservoirs increased by a greater percentage relative to 1985 estimates than did fields producing primarily from clastic reservoirs. Additionally, the largest oil fields had the greatest volumetric increases. Although different reserve-growth patterns are observed among oil fields located in different countries, the small number of fields in Denmark precludes construction of reserve-growth models for that country. However, differences in reserve-growth

  6. Reserve growth during financial volatility in a technologically challenging world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, Timothy R.; Gautier, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Reserve growth (growth-to-known) is the addition of oil and gas quantities to reported proved or proved-plus-probable reserves in discovered fields. The amount of reserve growth fluctuates through time with prevailing economic and technological conditions. Most reserve additions are the result of investment in field operations and in development technology. These investments can be justified by higher prices of oil and gas, the desire to maintain cash flow, and by greater recovery efficiency in well established fields. The price/cost ratio affects decisions for field abandonment and (or) implementation of improved recovery methods. Although small- to medium-size fields might show higher percentages of reserve growth, a relatively few giant fields contribute most volumetric reserve growth, indicating that companies may prefer to invest in existing fields with low geologic and production risk and an established infrastructure in order to increase their price/cost relationship. Whereas many previous estimates of reserve growth were based on past trends of reported reserves, future reserve growth is expected to be greatly affected by financial volatility and fluctuating economic and technological conditions.

  7. Reserve growth in oil pools of Alberta: Model and forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Cook, T.

    2010-01-01

    Reserve growth is recognized as a major component of additions to reserves in most oil provinces around the world, particularly in mature provinces. It takes place as a result of the discovery of new pools/reservoirs and extensions of known pools within existing fields, improved knowledge of reservoirs over time leading to a change in estimates of original oil-in-place, and improvement in recovery factor through the application of new technology, such as enhanced oil recovery methods, horizontal/multilateral drilling, and 4D seismic. A reserve growth study was conducted on oil pools in Alberta, Canada, with the following objectives: 1) evaluate historical oil reserve data in order to assess the potential for future reserve growth; 2) develop reserve growth models/ functions to help forecast hydrocarbon volumes; 3) study reserve growth sensitivity to various parameters (for example, pool size, porosity, and oil gravity); and 4) compare reserve growth in oil pools and fields in Alberta with those from other large petroleum provinces around the world. The reported known recoverable oil exclusive of Athabasca oil sands in Alberta increased from 4.5 billion barrels of oil (BBO) in 1960 to 17 BBO in 2005. Some of the pools that were included in the existing database were excluded from the present study for lack of adequate data. Therefore, the known recoverable oil increased from 4.2 to 13.9 BBO over the period from 1960 through 2005, with new discoveries contributing 3.7 BBO and reserve growth adding 6 BBO. This reserve growth took place mostly in pools with more than 125,000 barrels of known recoverable oil. Pools with light oil accounted for most of the total known oil volume, therefore reflecting the overall pool growth. Smaller pools, in contrast, shrank in their total recoverable volumes over the years. Pools with heavy oil (gravity less than 20o API) make up only a small share (3.8 percent) of the total recoverable oil; they showed a 23-fold growth compared to

  8. Estimating Quartz Reserves Using Compositional Kriging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Taboada

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine spatial distribution and volume of four commercial quartz grades, namely, silicon metal, ferrosilicon, aggregate, and kaolin (depending on content in impurities in a quartz seam. The chemical and mineralogical composition of the reserves in the seam were determined from samples collected from outcrops, blasting operations, and exploratory drilling, and compositional kriging was used to calculate the volume and distribution of the reserves. A more accurate knowledge of the deposit ensures better mine planning, leading to higher profitability and an improved relationship with the environment.

  9. Development growth of uranium reserves during mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giroux, M.

    1989-01-01

    According to the 1988 issue of the Nuclear Energy Agency report 'Uranium Resources, Production and Demand' (the Red Book), total uranium resources remained constant, and compare with those given in the 1986 issue. However, the low cost category of the Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR), that is to say potentially mineable reserves under present market conditions, presents a different picture. These show a decrease of 54 000 tonnes U, or about 3.5%, from the 1 January 1985 level. It seems insignificant until compared with what was removed from the ground - only a quarter of the 71 500 tonnes U of the low cost uranium that was extracted during 1985 and 1986 was renewed by the industry. This is probably related to the low level of exploration activity since 1983. Moreover, new uranium might be not as easy to find as some past discoveries have led us to believe. While in 1988 it appears there is enough low cost uranium to supply existing reactors, the picture quickly changes. From 1991 onwards, for 30 years' supply for existing reactors, uranium will have to come from RAR in the higher cost category. (author)

  10. Energy reserves. [Summary of reserve estimates and economic supply models for exhaustible resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tessmer, R.G. Jr.; Carhart, S.C.; Marcuse, W.

    1977-03-01

    There is an increasing concern about scarcity of the world's remaining natural energy resources and, in particular, the future supply of oil and natural gas. This paper summarizes recent estimates of energy reserves and economic supply models for exhaustible resources. The basic economic theory of resource exhaustion is reviewed, and recent estimates of both discovered and undiscovered energy resources are presented and compared. Domestic and world-wide reserve estimates are presented for crude oil and natural gas liquids, natural gas, coal, and uranium. Economic models projecting supply of these energy forms, given reserve estimates and other pertinent information, are discussed. Finally, a set of recent models which project world oil prices are summarized and their published results compared. The impact of energy conservation efforts on energy supply is also briefly discussed. 53 references.

  11. Impact of ground control on mining reserve estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duncan, G. [AMC Resource Consultants Pty Ltd., Sydney, NSW (Australia)

    2001-07-01

    The estimation of coal resources and reserves is an important and often critical component of the assessment of a mining operation or project. An accurate estimation of reserves in particular is essential for many stages of a mining project - from initial evaluation of the project potential, commitment to a mine development, approval of capital expenditure and/or project finance, through to mine valuation for sale or public listing. Accurate estimation of reserves is also a compulsory reporting requirement for public listed companies as set out in the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX), listing rules. Under these rules, resources and reserves are reported under the JOC Code that incorporates the 'Australian Code for Reporting Identified Coal Resources and Reserves'. These rules are now also used more frequently for non public listed companies. A number of geotechnical parameters play an important role in the process of converting insitu resources to economically recoverable reserves. Whilst these parameters play a role in opencut mining, this paper covers a number of key geotechnical issues that influence the estimation of underground reserves. 11 figs.

  12. New U.S. Geological Survey Method for the Assessment of Reserve Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, Timothy R.; Attanasi, E.D.; Charpentier, Ronald R.; Cook, Troy A.; Freeman, P.A.; Gautier, Donald L.; Le, Phuong A.; Ryder, Robert T.; Schenk, Christopher J.; Tennyson, Marilyn E.; Verma, Mahendra K.

    2011-01-01

    Reserve growth is defined as the estimated increases in quantities of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that have the potential to be added to remaining reserves in discovered accumulations through extension, revision, improved recovery efficiency, and additions of new pools or reservoirs. A new U.S. Geological Survey method was developed to assess the reserve-growth potential of technically recoverable crude oil and natural gas to be added to reserves under proven technology currently in practice within the trend or play, or which reasonably can be extrapolated from geologically similar trends or plays. This method currently is in use to assess potential additions to reserves in discovered fields of the United States. The new approach involves (1) individual analysis of selected large accumulations that contribute most to reserve growth, and (2) conventional statistical modeling of reserve growth in remaining accumulations. This report will focus on the individual accumulation analysis. In the past, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated reserve growth by statistical methods using historical recoverable-quantity data. Those statistical methods were based on growth rates averaged by the number of years since accumulation discovery. Accumulations in mature petroleum provinces with volumetrically significant reserve growth, however, bias statistical models of the data; therefore, accumulations with significant reserve growth are best analyzed separately from those with less significant reserve growth. Large (greater than 500 million barrels) and older (with respect to year of discovery) oil accumulations increase in size at greater rates late in their development history in contrast to more recently discovered accumulations that achieve most growth early in their development history. Such differences greatly affect the statistical methods commonly used to forecast reserve growth. The individual accumulation-analysis method involves estimating the in

  13. Ore reserve estimation: a summary of principles and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.

    1985-01-01

    The mining industry has experienced substantial improvements with the increasing utilization of computerized and electronic devices throughout the last few years. In the ore reserve estimation field the main methods have undergone recent advances in order to improve their overall efficiency. This paper presents the three main groups of ore reserve estimation methods presently used worldwide: Conventional, Statistical and Geostatistical, and elaborates a detaited description and comparative analysis of each. The Conventional Methods are the oldest, less complex and most employed ones. The Geostatistical Methods are the most recent precise and more complex ones. The Statistical Methods are intermediate to the others in complexity, diffusion and chronological order. (D.J.M.) [pt

  14. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON DYNAMICS OF CREDIT GROWTH AND FOREIGN RESERVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satrugan Sinah

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a model for looking into the nature of change in foreign reserve from movements in domestic credit. This model is relevant to foreign reserve targeting, small and open economies. The model denotes that measures undertaken by central banks to constraint domestic credit growth with the view of controlling capital outflows will also be detrimental to foreign reserves level. The empirical studies with application of Fourier Transformation technique have been used to build a model, which shows that growth in domestic credit is more biased towards positive swings in foreign reserves, rather than being unfavorable. The small and open economies, particularly, the Pacific Island nations, have the right set up for application of this model to safeguard foreign reserves level.

  15. A Reservation Aggregation Framework Design for Demand Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Vítek

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective management practices in the tourism and hotel area have seldom been more important than at the present time. Pricing decisions cannot be taken without serious thought. IT has provided the opportunity for a customer to make a quick market search and it offers decision support systems that can be used in the hotel management. The heart of yield management system consists of the predicting machine, which estimates the number of incoming reservations. Incoming reservations arrive randomly in time. The time series calculi as well as the estimators known from control engineering require properly defined time rows (with a constant period. This requirement is usually not fulfilled, so the input data are not exploited properly. This paper outlines a procedure that aggregates the reservations into a time series that is useful for demand prediction. The algorithm prepares the data systematically for further processing. Any method that process time rows can be used for subsequent prediction: time series, linear models or time extrapolation. 

  16. Petroleum reserves and undiscovered resources in the total petroleum systems of Iraq: Reserve growth and production implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.K.; Ahlbrandt, T.S.; Al-Gailani, M.

    2004-01-01

    Iraq is one of the world's most petroleum-rich countries and, in the future, it could become one of the main producers. Iraq's petroleum resources are estimated to be 184 billion barrels, which include oil and natural gas reserves, and undiscovered resources. With its proved (or remaining) reserves of 113 billion barrels of oil (BBO) as of January 2003, Iraq ranks second to Saudi Arabia with 259 BBO in the Middle East. Iraq's proved reserves of 110 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG) rank tenth in the world. In addition to known reserves, the combined undiscovered hydrocarbon potential for the three Total Petroleum Systems (Paleozoic, Jurassic, and Cretaceous/Tertiary) in Iraq is estimated to range from 14 to 84 BBO (45 BBO at the mean), and 37 to 227 TCFG (120 TCFG at the mean). Additionally, of the 526 known prospective structures, some 370 remain undrilled. Petroleum migration models and associated geological and geochemical studies were used to constrain the undiscovered resource estimates of Iraq. Based on a criterion of recoverable reserves of between 1 and 5 BBO for a giant field, and more than 5 BBO for a super-giant, Iraq has 6 super-giant and 11 giant fields, accounting for 88% of its recoverable reserves, which include proved reserves and cumulative production. Of the 28 producing fields, 22 have recovery factors that range from 15 to 42% with an overall average of less than 30%. The recovery factor can be increased with water injection, improved and enhanced oil recovery methods (IOR and EOR) in various reservoirs, thus potentially increasing Iraq's reserves by an additional 50 to 70 BBO. Reserve growth is a significant factor that has been observed, to some extent, in nearly all Iraqi oil fields. Historically, producing fields have shown an average growth of 1.6 fold (or 60%) in their recoverable reserves over a 20-year period (1981-2001). With periodic assessments of reservoirs, application of available technology, and an upgrading of facilities

  17. Reserve estimates in western basins. Part 2: Piceance Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-10-01

    This study characterizes an extremely large gas resource located in low permeability, sandstone reservoirs of the Mesaverde group in the Piceance Basin, Colorado. Total in place resource is estimated at 307.3 Tcf. Via application of geologic, engineering and economic criteria, the portion of this resource potentially recoverable as reserves is estimated. Those volumes estimated include probable, possible and potential categories and total 5.8 Tcf as a mean estimate of recoverable gas for all plays considered in the basin. About 82.6% of the total evaluated resource is contained within sandstones that have extremely poor reservoir properties with permeabilities considered too low for commerciality using current frac technology. Cost reductions and technology improvements will be required to unlock portions of this enormous resource. Approximately 2.7% of the total resource is contained within sandstone reservoirs which do not respond to massive hydraulic fracture treatments, probably due to their natural lenticular nature. Approximately 6.8% of the total resource is located in deeply buried settings below deepest established production. Approximately 7.9% of the total resource is considered to represent tight reservoirs that may be commercially exploited using today`s hydraulic fracturing technology. Recent technology advances in hydraulic fracturing practices in the Piceance Basin Mesaverde has resulted in a marked improvement in per well gas recovery which, where demonstrated, has been incorporated into the estimates provided in this report. This improvement is so significant in changing the risk-reward relationship that has historically characterized this play, that previously uneconomic areas and resources will graduate to the economically exploitable category. 48 refs., 96 figs., 18 tabs.

  18. Error estimation in plant growth analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Gregorczyk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The scheme is presented for calculation of errors of dry matter values which occur during approximation of data with growth curves, determined by the analytical method (logistic function and by the numerical method (Richards function. Further formulae are shown, which describe absolute errors of growth characteristics: Growth rate (GR, Relative growth rate (RGR, Unit leaf rate (ULR and Leaf area ratio (LAR. Calculation examples concerning the growth course of oats and maize plants are given. The critical analysis of the estimation of obtained results has been done. The purposefulness of joint application of statistical methods and error calculus in plant growth analysis has been ascertained.

  19. Impact of water stress on growth reserves and re-growth of Themeda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... carbohydrates (TNCC) and water-soluble protein (WSPC) as growth reserves after defoliation were determined in the indigenous C4 semi-arid grass species Themeda triandra during three growth stages (vegetative, piping and reproductive) and in three plant parts (roots, stubble and leaves). Four water stress treatments ...

  20. Estimating cognitive reserve in healthy adults using the Cognitive Reserve Scale.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene León

    Full Text Available The concept of cognitive reserve emerged from observed disparities between brain pathology and clinical symptoms. It may explain better neuropsychological performance in healthy individuals. The objectives of this study were to measure reserve in healthy subjects using a new Cognitive Reserve Scale (CRS, analyze the internal consistency of the CRS, and analyze validity evidence. A total of 117 healthy individuals were divided into two groups: 87 adults (aged 18-64 years and 30 elderly adults (≥65 years. All subjects completed the CRS and a comprehensive neuropsychological battery. The internal consistency of the scale was satisfactory (α = 0.77. No significant differences were observed between genders (t = 0.51, p = 0.611, and age was corrected by averaging the CRS score. The study of validity evidence showed that education affected the CRS (t = -2.98, p = 0.004, partial h2 = 0.07 and there was no significant relationship between the CRS and IQ (r = 0.09, p = 0.33. Occupational attainment and the CRS were not related (F2,116 = 0.11, p = 0.898. In line with previous studies on reserve, heterogeneity was observed in the analyses of relationships between the CRS and cognitive performance. There were significant relationships between CRS score and the Verbal Learning Spanish-Complutense Test last trial (r = 0.24, p = 0.009, sum (r = 0.32, p = 0.000, short-term (r = 0.29, p = 0.002 and long-term memory (r = 0.22, p = 0.018, Matrix Reasoning subtest (r = 0.20, p = 0.027 and Block Design subtest (r = 0.20, p = 0.029. No other neuropsychological variables correlated with the CRS (p>0.05. The CRS is a reliable instrument that reflects the frequency of participation in brain-stimulating activities across the lifetime. The associations between the CRS and education and neuropsychological performance support validity evidence.

  1. Estimating Cognitive Reserve in Healthy Adults Using the Cognitive Reserve Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, Irene; García-García, Juan; Roldán-Tapia, Lola

    2014-01-01

    The concept of cognitive reserve emerged from observed disparities between brain pathology and clinical symptoms. It may explain better neuropsychological performance in healthy individuals. The objectives of this study were to measure reserve in healthy subjects using a new Cognitive Reserve Scale (CRS), analyze the internal consistency of the CRS, and analyze validity evidence. A total of 117 healthy individuals were divided into two groups: 87 adults (aged 18–64 years) and 30 elderly adults (≥65 years). All subjects completed the CRS and a comprehensive neuropsychological battery. The internal consistency of the scale was satisfactory (α = 0.77). No significant differences were observed between genders (t = 0.51, p = 0.611), and age was corrected by averaging the CRS score. The study of validity evidence showed that education affected the CRS (t = −2.98, p = 0.004, partial h2 = 0.07) and there was no significant relationship between the CRS and IQ (r = 0.09, p = 0.33). Occupational attainment and the CRS were not related (F2,116 = 0.11, p = 0.898). In line with previous studies on reserve, heterogeneity was observed in the analyses of relationships between the CRS and cognitive performance. There were significant relationships between CRS score and the Verbal Learning Spanish–Complutense Test last trial (r = 0.24, p = 0.009), sum (r = 0.32, p = 0.000), short-term (r = 0.29, p = 0.002) and long-term memory (r = 0.22, p = 0.018), Matrix Reasoning subtest (r = 0.20, p = 0.027) and Block Design subtest (r = 0.20, p = 0.029). No other neuropsychological variables correlated with the CRS (p>0.05). The CRS is a reliable instrument that reflects the frequency of participation in brain-stimulating activities across the lifetime. The associations between the CRS and education and neuropsychological performance support validity evidence. PMID:25050711

  2. [Hygienic estimation of functional reserves and adaptive capabilities of students].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setko, N P; Bulycheva, E V; Beilina, E B

    In the article there are presented data on characteristics ofpeculiarities of the functional state of medical 1-6 years students of higher educational institutions. The results were obtained with the aid of variation pulsometry. Students were shown to have typical elevated tone of the sympathetic nervous system, especially for students of the 1, 3, 5 and 6 courses, that is confirmed by the amplitude mode (AMo), characterizing the sympathetic activity of autonomous nervous system (ANS), which is an average of the students 1 year accounted for 38.6 ± 1.89%, for students of the 3 course - 38.5 ± 1.72%, for students of the 5 year (40.9 ± 3.25 %) and the students of 6 course (46.7 ± 2.59%). There was determined the trend to the centralization of the heart rate control, as evidenced by a reduced proportion of high-frequency waves (HF) by 29.2% to 35.2%, exceeding by 3.6 to 14.4 times in waves of the very low frequency (VLF) relative to the average standard values; the high proportion of students from 41% to 52%, with a mismatch of the sympathetic and parasympathetic compartments of the autonomic nervous system in the regulation of biological processes of adaptation. For medical students of higher education institutions there are typical functional reserves reduced from 20.5 % to 97.6% and a decrease in the proportion of students with a satisfactory adaptation by 40.4% from the 1 to the 6th year.

  3. Estimation of Uncertainles in Gas-Condensate Systems Reserves by Monte Carlo Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Nagy Stanislaw; Siemek Jakub

    2004-01-01

    In the paper, an impact of improper condensate sampling on calculation of gas and condensate reserves of gas-condensate system is presented. The paper discusses probabilistic methods in reserves estimation (proven, possible, probable). The Peng-Robinson equation of state (EOS) has been used to calculations of phase properties. Sensitivity of CGR during recombination of stream process on liquid and gas reserves has been shown. The large error in estimation of condensate reserve has been obtain...

  4. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  5. Improvements to the quality of the estimates of US uranium reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikodem, Z.D.

    1998-01-01

    Extensive work has been done in the United States in the estimation of uranium reserves. The government's role in uranium raw materials shifted from support of military programmes to assessing the supply available for commercial power generation. A comprehensive system evolved in which government staff estimated reserves for each property over a range of cost levels using standardized estimation methodology and criteria. The programme was assigned to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy in 1983 which has the responsibility for reporting on energy resources. As uranium supply had increased and demand had decreased, there was less concern about the adequacy of resources. In this situation, and with reduced staffing levels, the EIA adopted a two part interim approach to preparing reserve estimates. One used questionnaires to obtain uranium company estimates of their economic and subeconomic reserves, with company determined economic criteria. A second approach modified the earlier detailed government property estimates to account for production. The EIA developed a new system with the assistance of consultants and the uranium industry. The goal of the new system is to produce one set of estimates at various cost categories for each property based on a rigorous adherence to EIA criteria. Initial information is gathered from the industry through a revised annual questionnaire. Company estimates that conform to EIA standards are incorporated into the EIA reserve data base. Additional information is gathered for those estimates requiring clarification, primarily through detailed technical conferences with company staff. The EIA has the capability to prepare independent reserve estimates from basic drill hole data when required. Uranium reserves estimated for 1990 by the EIA include the initial results from the new methodology. The cooperation and support of the uranium industry have been excellent. Detailed evaluation of properties is

  6. Estimation of Uncertainles in Gas-Condensate Systems Reserves by Monte Carlo Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nagy Stanislaw

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper, an impact of improper condensate sampling on calculation of gas and condensate reserves of gas-condensate system is presented. The paper discusses probabilistic methods in reserves estimation (proven, possible, probable. The Peng-Robinson equation of state (EOS has been used to calculations of phase properties. Sensitivity of CGR during recombination of stream process on liquid and gas reserves has been shown. The large error in estimation of condensate reserve has been obtained. The impact of CGR error on the vapor phase reserve is small.

  7. Reserve estimation and the influence of coal seams on coal seam gas productivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Creech, Michael; McConachie, Bruce

    2014-01-01

    SRK has undertaken coal seam gas (CSG) reserve and resource estimation for many companies and has consistently found that the influence of the coal seam setting and coal quality is commonly underestimated. This can significantly impact production risks and can result in the failure to achieve mean outcomes for the most commonly assessed proved and probable (2P) reserves and contingent resources.

  8. Reliability/Cost Evaluation on Power System connected with Wind Power for the Reserve Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Go-Eun; Cha, Seung-Tae; Shin, Je-Seok

    2012-01-01

    Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

  9. Variance component and heritability estimates of early growth traits ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Variance component and heritability estimates of early growth traits in the Elsenburg Dormer sheep ... of variance and co- variance components. In recent years, heritability estimates of growth traits have been reported for many breeds of sheep. However, little information ..... Modeling genetic evaluation systems. Project no.

  10. Estimating the optimal growth-maximising public debt threshold for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper attempts to estimate an optimal growth-maximising public debt threshold for Zimbabwe. The public debt threshold is estimated by assessing the relationship between public debt and economic growth. The analysis is undertaken to determine the tipping point beyond which increases in public debt adversely affect ...

  11. Approaches to identifying reservoir heterogeneity and reserve growth opportunities from subsurface data: The Oficina Formation, Budare field, Venezuela

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, D.S.; Raeuchle, S.K.; Holtz, M.H. [Bureau of Economic Geology, Austin, TX (United States)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    We applied an integrated geologic, geophysical, and engineering approach devised to identify heterogeneities in the subsurface that might lead to reserve growth opportunities in our analysis of the Oficina Formation at Budare field, Venezuela. The approach involves 4 key steps: (1) Determine geologic reservoir architecture; (2) Investigate trends in reservoir fluid flow; (3) Integrate fluid flow trends with reservoir architecture; and (4) Estimate original oil-in-place, residual oil saturation, and remaining mobile oil, to identify opportunities for reserve growth. There are three main oil-producing reservoirs in the Oficina Formation that were deposited in a bed-load fluvial system, an incised valley-fill, and a barrier-strandplain system. Reservoir continuity is complex because, in addition to lateral facies variability, the major Oficina depositional systems were internally subdivided by high-frequency stratigraphic surfaces. These surfaces define times of intermittent lacustrine and marine flooding events that punctuated the fluvial and marginal marine sedimentation, respectively. Syn and post depositional faulting further disrupted reservoir continuity. Trends in fluid flow established from initial fluid levels, response to recompletion workovers, and pressure depletion data demonstrated barriers to lateral and vertical fluid flow caused by a combination of reservoir facies pinchout, flooding shale markers, and the faults. Considerable reserve growth potential exists at Budare field because the reservoir units are highly compartment by the depositional heterogeneity and structural complexity. Numerous reserve growth opportunities were identified in attics updip of existing production, in untapped or incompletely drained compartments, and in field extensions.

  12. Estimation of lignite reserve in the Kalburcayiri field, Kangal basin, Sivas, Turkey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tercan, A.E. [Department of Mining Engineering, Hacettepe University, Beytepe, 06532 Ankara (Turkey); Karayigit, A.I. [Department of Geological Engineering, Hacettepe University, Beytepe, 06532 Ankara (Turkey)

    2001-08-01

    This paper addresses a case study on global estimation of lignite reserve in the Kalburcayiri field from the Sivas-Kangal basin, which is one of the most productive lignite basins in eastern Anatolia, Turkey. The two lignite seams, which were developed in a fresh-water lacustrine depositional environment during the Pliocene time, are currently being exploited in the Kalburcayiri open-cast mine for feed coal to a power plant with 300-MW capacity. Tonnage, thickness and quality parameters (ash yield, total sulphur content, and calorific value) of the lignite are variables considered in this study. The global estimates of these variables together with 95% confidence limits are obtained using the approximation principle of global estimation. A random stratified grid is fitted to available boreholes; the variograms for thickness and lignite quality parameters are estimated and modeled. The models are used in calculating estimation error variances that will later be used in constructing 95% confidence intervals for the true values.

  13. Estimation of lung growth using computed tomography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A. de Jong (Pim); Y. Nakano (Yasutaka); M.H. Lequin (Maarten); P.J.F.M. Merkus (Peter); H.A.W.M. Tiddens (Harm); J.C. Hogg (James); H.O. Coxson (Harvey)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractAnatomical studies suggest that normal lungs grow by rapid alveolar addition until about 2 yrs of age followed by a gradual increase in alveolar dimensions. The aim of this study was to examine the hypothesis that normal lung growth can be monitored by computed

  14. Reserve estimates in western basins: Unita Basin. Final report, Part III

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-10-01

    This study characterizes an extremely large gas resource located in low permeability, sandstone reservoirs of the Mesaverde group and Wasatch formation in the Uinta Basin, Utah. Total in-place resource is estimated at 395.5 Tcf. Via application of geologic, engineering and economic criteria, the portion of this resource potentially recoverable as reserves is estimated. Those volumes estimated include probable, possible and potential categories and total 3.8 Tcf as a mean estimate of recoverable gas for all plays considered in the basin. Two plays were included in this study and each was separately analyzed in terms of its tight gas resource, established productive characteristics and future reserves potential based on a constant $2/Mcf wellhead gas price scenario. A scheme has been developed to break the overall resource estimate down into components that can be considered as differing technical and economic challenges that must be overcome in order to exploit such resources; in other words, to convert those resources to economically recoverable reserves. About 82.1% of the total evaluated resource is contained within sandstones that have extremely poor reservoir properties with permeabilities considered too low for commerciality using current frac technology.

  15. Genetic parameter estimates for growth traits at different ages in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Precise and accurate genetic parameter estimates are crucial for making sound decisions in many stages of animal improvement programme. Genetic parameter estimates for eight growth traits were determined in 308 turkeys generated from mating pure indigenous parents. PROC MIXED of SAS was used to estimate ...

  16. A test and re-estimation of Taylor's empirical capacity-reserve relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K.R.

    2009-01-01

    In 1977, Taylor proposed a constant elasticity model relating capacity choice in mines to reserves. A test of this model using a very large (n = 1,195) dataset confirms its validity but obtains significantly different estimated values for the model coefficients. Capacity is somewhat inelastic with respect to reserves, with an elasticity of 0.65 estimated for open-pit plus block-cave underground mines and 0.56 for all other underground mines. These new estimates should be useful for capacity determinations as scoping studies and as a starting point for feasibility studies. The results are robust over a wide range of deposit types, deposit sizes, and time, consistent with physical constraints on mine capacity that are largely independent of technology. ?? 2009 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  17. Radiocarbon in resprouts and sap sugars for estimating turnover times of storage reserves in trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbore, S.; Kunert, N.; Muhr, J.; Kuhlmann, I.; Börner, A.; Nicolle, D.

    2016-12-01

    Nonstructural carbon reserves are compounds that are used for a number of purposes. They can be stored for up to several years or a decade in tree stems, and these storage reserves have been demonstrated to fuel plant respiration in root and stem tissues, even during time with minimal tree stress. One role played by NSC is to supply C needed to regrow during recovery from catastrophic damage, for example by providing C for growth of resprouts. We summarize here a number of data collected on the radiocarbon signature of resprouts from trees ranging from tropical to boreal forests. The C used for resprouting ranges in age from < 2 years up to more than a decade old, with some of the oldest C reserves used in resprouting tropical forest tree species. Repeated removal of resprouts from various species of eucalypts demonstrates that successively older reserves were used to grow new resprouts, with oldest reserves used just before the plant died. These results indicate the need to understand what controls the mean age of C used to survive catastrophic damage, as increased frequency of damage could indicate there is not enough time to replenish reserve stores.

  18. Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, R. L.

    2006-05-01

    The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

  19. On the estimation of the volatility-growth link

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Launov, Andrey; Posch, Olaf; Wälde, Klaus

    It is common practice to estimate the volatility-growth link by specifying a standard growth equation such that the variance of the error term appears as an explanatory variable in this growth equation. The variance in turn is modelled by a second equation. Hardly any of existing applications...... of this framework includes exogenous controls in this second variance equation. Our theoretical …ndings suggest that the absence of relevant explanatory variables in the variance equation leads to a biased and inconsistent estimate of the volatility-growth link. Our simulations show that this effect is large. Once...... the appropriate controls are included in the variance equation consistency is restored. In short, we suggest that the variance equation must include relevant control variables to estimate the volatility-growth link....

  20. Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth–mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.

  1. Estimation of Reserves of Tula Horizon Oil Deposits of Severo-Yurmanskoye Field, Perm Kray

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V I Nabiullin

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This article presents an estimation of reserves of the Tula horizon oil-bearing layers Tl2-a and Tl2-b at the Severo-Yurmanskoye oil field. Research was carried out in order to prospect the unestimated oil reserves at the previously drilled but not commercially producing areas of Perm kray. The opportunity of reserve calculation for this oil field was provided by the sufficient oil encroachment rate achieved during testing of Tula horizon layers in the borehole 174, reliable mapping of oil-bearing horizons using seismic and borehole data, existence of updated stratigraphic information, results of study of uniformity of oil-bearing layers throughout the area of the Severo-Yurmanskoye oil field, reliable estimate of the position of water-oil contact, defining the effective oil-bearing thickness of oil-bearing layers using results of borehole geophysical survey, study of lithological composition and reservoir  properties, study of physical and chemical properties of oil in borehole and in laboratory, and reliability of statistical evaluation of oil recovery factor.

  2. Complete adrenocorticotropin deficiency after radiation therapy for brain tumor with a normal growth hormone reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, Haruna; Yoshioka, Katsunobu; Yamagami, Keiko

    2002-01-01

    A 34-year-old man with neurofibromatosis type 1, who had received radiation therapy after the excision of a brain tumor 5 years earlier, was admitted to our hospital with vomiting and weight loss. Cortisol and adrenocorticotropin (ACTH) were undetectable before and after administration of 100 μg corticotropin releasing hormone. The level of growth hormone without stimulation was 24.7 ng/ml. We diagnosed him to have complete ACTH deficiency attributable to radiation therapy. This is the first known case of a patient with complete ACTH deficiency after radiation therapy and a growth hormone reserve that remained normal. (author)

  3. Estimating phosphorus availability for microbial growth in an emerging landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, S.K.; Cleveland, C.C.; Nemergut, D.R.; Reed, S.C.; King, A.J.; Sowell, P.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating phosphorus (P) availability is difficult—particularly in infertile soils such as those exposed after glacial recession—because standard P extraction methods may not mimic biological acquisition pathways. We developed an approach, based on microbial CO2 production kinetics and conserved carbon:phosphorus (C:P) ratios, to estimate the amount of P available for microbial growth in soils and compared this method to traditional, operationally-defined indicators of P availability. Along a primary succession gradient in the High Andes of Perú, P additions stimulated the growth-related (logistic) kinetics of glutamate mineralization in soils that had been deglaciated from 0 to 5 years suggesting that microbial growth was limited by soil P availability. We then used a logistic model to estimate the amount of C incorporated into biomass in P-limited soils, allowing us to estimate total microbial P uptake based on a conservative C:P ratio of 28:1 (mass:mass). Using this approach, we estimated that there was < 1 μg/g of microbial-available P in recently de-glaciated soils in both years of this study. These estimates fell well below estimates of available soil P obtained using traditional extraction procedures. Our results give both theoretical and practical insights into the kinetics of C and P utilization in young soils, as well as show changes in microbial P availability during early stages of soil development.

  4. Comparative study of the geostatistical ore reserve estimation method over the conventional methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.C.; Knudsen, H.P.

    1975-01-01

    Part I contains a comprehensive treatment of the comparative study of the geostatistical ore reserve estimation method over the conventional methods. The conventional methods chosen for comparison were: (a) the polygon method, (b) the inverse of the distance squared method, and (c) a method similar to (b) but allowing different weights in different directions. Briefly, the overall result from this comparative study is in favor of the use of geostatistics in most cases because the method has lived up to its theoretical claims. A good exposition on the theory of geostatistics, the adopted study procedures, conclusions and recommended future research are given in Part I. Part II of this report contains the results of the second and the third study objectives, which are to assess the potential benefits that can be derived by the introduction of the geostatistical method to the current state-of-the-art in uranium reserve estimation method and to be instrumental in generating the acceptance of the new method by practitioners through illustrative examples, assuming its superiority and practicality. These are given in the form of illustrative examples on the use of geostatistics and the accompanying computer program user's guide

  5. Reserves' potential of sedimentary basin: modeling and estimation; Potentiel de reserves d'un bassin petrolier: modelisation et estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepez, V.

    2002-12-01

    The aim of this thesis is to build a statistical model of oil and gas fields' sizes distribution in a given sedimentary basin, for both the fields that exist in:the subsoil and those which have already been discovered. The estimation of all the parameters of the model via estimation of the density of the observations by model selection of piecewise polynomials by penalized maximum likelihood techniques enables to provide estimates of the total number of fields which are yet to be discovered, by class of size. We assume that the set of underground fields' sizes is an i.i.d. sample of unknown population with Levy-Pareto law with unknown parameter. The set of already discovered fields is a sub-sample without replacement from the previous which is 'size-biased'. The associated inclusion probabilities are to be estimated. We prove that the probability density of the observations is the product of the underlying density and of an unknown weighting function representing the sampling bias. An arbitrary partition of the sizes' interval being set (called a model), the analytical solutions of likelihood maximization enables to estimate both the parameter of the underlying Levy-Pareto law and the weighting function, which is assumed to be piecewise constant and based upon the partition. We shall add a monotonousness constraint over the latter, taking into account the fact that the bigger a field, the higher its probability of being discovered. Horvitz-Thompson-like estimators finally give the conclusion. We then allow our partitions to vary inside several classes of models and prove a model selection theorem which aims at selecting the best partition within a class, in terms of both Kuilback and Hellinger risk of the associated estimator. We conclude by simulations and various applications to real data from sedimentary basins of four continents, in order to illustrate theoretical as well as practical aspects of our model. (author)

  6. Type I insulin-like growth factor as a liver reserve assessment tool in hepatocellular carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdel-Wahab R

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Reham Abdel-Wahab,1,2 Samir Shehata,2 Manal M Hassan,1 Mouhammed A Habra,3 Ghazaleh Eskandari,4 Peggy T Tinkey,5 Jennifer Mitchell,5 Ju-Seog Lee,6 Hesham M Amin,4,7 Ahmed O Kaseb11Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA; 2Department of Clinical Oncology, Assiut University Hospital, Assiut, Egypt; 3Department of Endocrinology, 4Department of Hematopathology, 5Department of Veterinary Medicine and Surgery, 6Department of Systems Biology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, 7Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Houston, TX, USAAbstract: Chronic liver diseases (CLDs encompass a wide range of illnesses, including nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and viral hepatitis. Deterioration of liver capacity, with subsequent progression into cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, ultimately leads to a further decrease in the hepatic reserve. The Child–Turcotte–Pugh scoring system is the standard tool for assessing underlying liver reserve capacity in routine practice and in clinical trials of CLD and HCC. In this review, we highlight the clinical significance of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I and the growth hormone (GH signaling pathway in HCC. IGF-I could be a marker for liver reserve capacity in CLDs and HCC in clinical practice. This approach could improve the risk assessment and stratifications of patients on the basis of their underlying liver reserve, either before active treatment in routine practice or before they are enrolled in clinical trials.Keywords: IGF-I, growth hormone, chronic liver disease

  7. RELATIVECONTRIBUTIONS OF THE NIGERIAN CAPITALMARKETTO THE GROWTH OF EXTERNAL RESERVES (2005-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akaninyene Udo Akpan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Virtually all aspects of human endeavour entail the use of money either selfgenerated or borrowed. In capital market, the stock in trade is money which couldbe raised through various instruments under well governed rules and regulationscarefully administered and followed by different institutions or market operators.External reserves constitute an integral part of the wealth of the nation such thatthe lack of it brings worry to most nations and can limit the ability of the countryto make foreign currency denominated payments and limits its spending abroad.Hence,countries are induced to hold reserves to allow monetary authorities tointervene in markets to control the exchange rate and inflation. Adequate reservesalso allow the country to borrow from abroad and to hedge against instability anduncertainty of external capital flows.Therefore, the objective of this paper is toaccess the relative contribution of the Nigerian capital market if any to the growthof her external reserve.The methodology used is purely descriptive and narrative and the data used is secondary. The evidence provided in the study based on thestatistical analysis, revealed that the Nigerian capital market can induce thegrowthof external reserve but it has not contributed to the growth of externalreserve in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study recommendedamong otherstheneedfor availability of more investment instruments such as derivatives, futures,swaps, options in the market and theexpansion of the Nigerian capital Market bythe government creating an enabling investable environment that will increaseboth the volume of transactions and number of securities traded in the market.This will improve their ability to mobilize resources and efficiently allocate themto the most productive sectors of the economy hence, contributing its portion tothe growth of her external reserve.

  8. Repeatability estimates of growth traits in arbor acre broiler chickens ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two hundred (200) Arbor Acre broiler chickens fed four different diets containing 0 (control), 4, 6, and 8% (unconventional) probiotics enhanced Moringa Oleifera seed meal (PEMOSM) were used to estimate repeatability (R) of growth traits during the starter (0-4 weeks) and finisher phases (5-7weeks). The traits considered ...

  9. Fish growth parameters are commonly estimated from the counts of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    spamer

    total length of the fish midway during its time at liberty. If a Von Bertalanffy model describes galjoen growth. (Bennett and Griffiths 1986), then age is linearly related to the quantity ln(l∞ – TL). Therefore, the length midway between release and recovery for galjoen was estimated as follows: ln(L∞ – TLi rel) + ln(L∞ – TLi rec).

  10. Estimation of algal colonization growth on mortar surface using a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Estimation of algal colonization growth on mortar surface using a hybridization of machine learning and metaheuristic optimization ... The characteristics of the mortar samples, including surface roughness, porosity, surface pH, carbonated condition and type of cement, are employed as input factors for the analysing process ...

  11. Estimation of genetic and genotypic parameters for growth and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Bekezela

    2013-12-19

    Dec 19, 2013 ... ratio (FCR), age at slaughter (AGES), lean percentage (LEAN), drip-free lean percentage (DLEAN), drip loss percentage (DRIP), carcass length (CRLTH), dressing percentage (DRESS), eye muscle area (AREA) and carcass fat (CFAT). Heritability estimates for growth traits ranged from 0.24 ± 0.03 for FCR ...

  12. Estimates of repeatability for growth traits of pure and crossbred ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Growth traits and their repeatability estimates were studied in a flock of 300 turkeys made up of 120 indigenous, 120 crossbred and 60 exotic turkeys. Weekly body weights and their conformation traits (breast girth (BG), body length (BL), thigh length (TL), shank length (SL) and keel length (KL)) were taken from week 1 to 20.

  13. Estimating functional liver reserve following hepatic irradiation: Adaptive normal tissue response models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenmark, Matthew H.; Cao, Yue; Wang, Hesheng; Jackson, Andrew; Ben-Josef, Edgar; Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S.; Feng, Mary

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To estimate the limit of functional liver reserve for safe application of hepatic irradiation using changes in indocyanine green, an established assay of liver function. Materials and methods: From 2005 to 2011, 60 patients undergoing hepatic irradiation were enrolled in a prospective study assessing the plasma retention fraction of indocyanine green at 15-min (ICG-R15) prior to, during (at 60% of planned dose), and after radiotherapy (RT). The limit of functional liver reserve was estimated from the damage fraction of functional liver (DFL) post-RT [1 − (ICG-R15 pre-RT /ICG-R15 post-RT )] where no toxicity was observed using a beta distribution function. Results: Of 48 evaluable patients, 3 (6%) developed RILD, all within 2.5 months of completing RT. The mean ICG-R15 for non-RILD patients pre-RT, during-RT and 1-month post-RT was 20.3%(SE 2.6), 22.0%(3.0), and 27.5%(2.8), and for RILD patients was 6.3%(4.3), 10.8%(2.7), and 47.6%(8.8). RILD was observed at post-RT damage fractions of ⩾78%. Both DFL assessed by during-RT ICG and MLD predicted for DFL post-RT (p < 0.0001). Limiting the post-RT DFL to 50%, predicted a 99% probability of a true complication rate <15%. Conclusion: The DFL as assessed by changes in ICG during treatment serves as an early indicator of a patient’s tolerance to hepatic irradiation

  14. Velocity and acceleration of height growth using kernel estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasser, T; Köhler, W; Müller, H G; Kneip, A; Largo, R; Molinari, L; Prader, A

    1984-01-01

    A method is introduced for estimating acceleration, velocity and distance of longitudinal growth curves and it is illustrated by analysing human height growth. This approach, called kernel estimation, belongs to the class of smoothing methods and does not assume an a priori fixed functional model, and not even that one and the same model is applicable for all children. The examples presented show that acceleration curves might allow a better quantification of the mid-growth spurt (MS) and a more differentiated analysis of the pubertal spurt (PS). Accelerations are prone to follow random variations present in the data, and parameters defined in terms of acceleration are, therefore, validated by a comparison with parameters defined in terms of velocity. Our non-parametric-curve-fitting approach is also compared with parametric fitting via a model suggested by Preece and Baines (1978).

  15. Estimation of individual growth trajectories when repeated measures are missing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brooks, Mollie Elizabeth; Clements, Christopher; Pemberton, Josephine

    2017-01-01

    growth trajectories. We show that state-space models (SSMs), fit using R package growmod, are far less biased than LMMs when fit to simulated data sets with missing repeated measures and observation error. This method is much faster than Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, allowing more models to be tested...... in a shorter time. For the scenarios we simulated, SSMs gave estimates with little bias when up to 87.5% of repeated measures were missing. We use this method to quantify growth of Soay sheep, using data from a long-term mark-recapture study, and demonstrate that growth decreased with age, population density......, weather conditions, and when individuals are reproductive. The method improves our ability to quantify how growth varies among individuals in response to their attributes and the environments they experience, with particular relevance for wild populations....

  16. Can we estimate bacterial growth rates from ribosomal RNA content?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemp, P.F.

    1995-12-31

    Several studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the quantity of RNA in bacterial cells and their growth rate under laboratory conditions. It may be possible to use this relationship to provide information on the activity of natural bacterial communities, and in particular on growth rate. However, if this approach is to provide reliably interpretable information, the relationship between RNA content and growth rate must be well-understood. In particular, a requisite of such applications is that the relationship must be universal among bacteria, or alternately that the relationship can be determined and measured for specific bacterial taxa. The RNA-growth rate relationship has not been used to evaluate bacterial growth in field studies, although RNA content has been measured in single cells and in bulk extracts of field samples taken from coastal environments. These measurements have been treated as probable indicators of bacterial activity, but have not yet been interpreted as estimators of growth rate. The primary obstacle to such interpretations is a lack of information on biological and environmental factors that affect the RNA-growth rate relationship. In this paper, the available data on the RNA-growth rate relationship in bacteria will be reviewed, including hypotheses regarding the regulation of RNA synthesis and degradation as a function of growth rate and environmental factors; i.e. the basic mechanisms for maintaining RNA content in proportion to growth rate. An assessment of the published laboratory and field data, the current status of this research area, and some of the remaining questions will be presented.

  17. Uav-Based Automatic Tree Growth Measurement for Biomass Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpina, M.; Jarząbek-Rychard, M.; Tymków, P.; Borkowski, A.

    2016-06-01

    Manual in-situ measurements of geometric tree parameters for the biomass volume estimation are time-consuming and economically non-effective. Photogrammetric techniques can be deployed in order to automate the measurement procedure. The purpose of the presented work is an automatic tree growth estimation based on Unmanned Aircraft Vehicle (UAV) imagery. The experiment was conducted in an agriculture test field with scots pine canopies. The data was collected using a Leica Aibotix X6V2 platform equipped with a Nikon D800 camera. Reference geometric parameters of selected sample plants were measured manually each week. In situ measurements were correlated with the UAV data acquisition. The correlation aimed at the investigation of optimal conditions for a flight and parameter settings for image acquisition. The collected images are processed in a state of the art tool resulting in a generation of dense 3D point clouds. The algorithm is developed in order to estimate geometric tree parameters from 3D points. Stem positions and tree tops are identified automatically in a cross section, followed by the calculation of tree heights. The automatically derived height values are compared to the reference measurements performed manually. The comparison allows for the evaluation of automatic growth estimation process. The accuracy achieved using UAV photogrammetry for tree heights estimation is about 5cm.

  18. Association of coronary ischemia estimated by fractional flow reserve and psychological characteristics of patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miodrag Jovan Sreckovic

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : Psychological characteristics of patients, depression, stress and anxiety are recognized as important confounding risk factors for ischemic heart disease. However, the impact of psychological characteristics on coronary ischemia and vice versa remain poorly understood. Aim: To demonstrate the interplay of psychological characteristics, depression, stress and anxiety with coronary ischemia estimated with fractional flow reserve (FFR. Material and methods : From 2014 to 2016, 147 patients who were planned for FFR measurement were included in this study. Psychological characteristics of patients were evaluated using the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale 21 items (DASS 21 self-report questionnaire. Results : Comparing the FFR ischemic vs. FFR non-ischemic groups, a significant difference was observed regarding results achieved for the depression, anxiety and stress scales. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to model the correlation between FFR and the DAS scale. It was clear, when controlling for previous myocardial infarction, that FFR was significant in all analyses. However, when the Canadian Cardiovascular Society grading of angina pectoris (CCS class was entered in the model, FFR was not a significant predictor of anxiety, but was significant in other analysis. Conclusions : Higher degrees of the psychological characteristics depression, stress and anxiety were observed in the group of patients with coronary ischemia, corresponding to lower fractional flow values.

  19. Estimating technically recoverable reserves in the Faja Petrolifera del Orinoco : FPO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dusseault, M.B. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada); Zambrano, A.; Barrios, J.R.; Guerra, C. [PDVSA, La Campina, Caracas (Venezuela)

    2008-07-01

    In Venezuela, the Faja Petrolifera del Orinoco (FPO) is the largest hydrocarbon accumulation. This paper reported on a methodology to determine the proportion that was technically recoverable with existing production methods. The approach was described using an example from Carabobo region and was based on geophysical, geological and log data. The paper discussed technology suitability for the FPO including field trial recommendations; a review and rationale for PPT trials; a review and rationale for cold heavy oil production with sand (CHOPS) trials; steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) potential in the FPO; and rationale for horizontal steam stimulation (HCS) to SAGD trials. Stratigraphy of the Carabobo area and sedimentation and facies summary were presented. Last, the paper discussed a technology screening exercise. It was concluded that a reasonable recoverable reserves estimate for the Venezuelan FPO was an overall recovery for the entire FPO of approximately 20 per cent and that pilot tests in the FPO have shown good responses. 10 refs., 5 tabs., 5 figs.

  20. Estimation of Eruption Source Parameters from Plume Growth Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, Solene; Bursik, Marcus; Webley, Peter; Dehn, Jon; Pavalonis, Michael; Singh, Tarunraj; Singla, Puneet; Patra, Abani; Pitman, Bruce; Stefanescu, Ramona; Madankan, Reza; Morton, Donald; Jones, Matthew

    2013-04-01

    The eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland in April and May, 2010, brought to light the hazards of airborne volcanic ash and the importance of Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion models (VATD) to estimate the concentration of ash with time. These models require Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) as input, which typically include information about the plume height, the mass eruption rate, the duration of the eruption and the particle size distribution. However much of the time these ESP are unknown or poorly known a priori. We show that the mass eruption rate can be estimated from the downwind plume or umbrella cloud growth rate. A simple version of the continuity equation can be applied to the growth of either an umbrella cloud or the downwind plume. The continuity equation coupled with the momentum equation using only inertial and gravitational terms provides another model. Numerical modeling or scaling relationships can be used, as necessary, to provide values for unknown or unavailable parameters. Use of these models applied to data on plume geometry provided by satellite imagery allows for direct estimation of plume volumetric and mass growth with time. To test our methodology, we compared our results with five well-studied and well-characterized historical eruptions: Mount St. Helens, 1980; Pinatubo, 1991, Redoubt, 1990; Hekla, 2000 and Eyjafjallajokull, 2010. These tests show that the methodologies yield results comparable to or better than currently accepted methodologies of ESP estimation. We then applied the methodology to umbrella clouds produced by the eruptions of Okmok, 12 July 2008, and Sarychev Peak, 12 June 2009, and to the downwind plume produced by the eruptions of Hekla, 2000; Kliuchevsko'i, 1 October 1994; Kasatochi 7-8 August 2008 and Bezymianny, 1 September 2012. The new methods allow a fast, remote assessment of the mass eruption rate, even for remote volcanoes. They thus provide an additional path to estimation of the ESP and the forecasting

  1. International strategies for growth : monetizing gas reserves to add value to the bottom line

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihaichuk, G.

    1998-01-01

    The direction taken by oil and gas companies, including TransCanada International, in their strategy for growth in global energy markets was discussed. The role that gas plays in meeting the objectives was examined and the different ways in which gas reserves and investments in the gas sector are being turned into high-performing vehicles for adding value to the bottom line were described. Deregulation of, and competition within, the gas and electric power industries are the driving factors for changes within the energy industries. Natural gas will be a winner because it is the first choice for new power generation. Many companies have entered the international playing field to take advantage of the opportunities in international markets. The problems and solutions to monetizing natural gas reserves, some of the international political issues such as regulatory uncertainty, cross-border disputes, lack of regional integration, and sanctions, and how these adverse effects may be mitigated through mergers, acquisitions, or joint ventures, are explored. 14 figs

  2. Mathematical Estimate of Growth Process in Mangalitsa Piglets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Pârvu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of researches was to develop a mathematical model to simulate the growth process in piglets. The experiment was conducted on 53 Mangalitsa piglets, with initial weight (Wi of 0.95 kg. The final weight was 30.7 kg. The piglets have been fed ad libitum with standard diets. Body weight, compound feed intake and feed conversion ratio were monitored throughout the experimental period. Housing environmental parameters were according to the growth technology. The feed samples were analyzed according the Weende scheme. The crude protein was determined by Tecator – Kyeltec Auto Analyze, the ether extract by Soxtec System HT and the brute cellulose by gravimetric method. The Gompertz-type functions were used for the mathematical modelling of the growth process. Gompertz function is a type of mathematical model for a time series, with sigmoid appearance. The weight evolution was evaluated from the initial weight (Wi. Based on data on the evolution of body weight was made a mathematical model that allows estimation of growth in standard conditions of maintenance.

  3. Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: reassuring or misleading? An in-depth literature review of global estimates of phosphate rock reserves and resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edixhoven, J. D.; Gupta, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2013-09-01

    Phosphate rock (PR) is a finite mineral indispensible for fertilizer production and a major pollutant. High grade PR is obtained from deposits which took millions of years to form and are gradually being depleted. Over the past three years, global PR reserves as reported by US Geological Survey (USGS) have seen a massive increase, from 16 000 Mt PR in 2010 to 65 000 Mt PR in 2011. The bulk of this four-fold increase is based on a 2010 report by International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), which increased Moroccan reserves from 5700 Mt PR as reported by USGS, to 51 000 Mt PR, reported as upgraded ("beneficiated") concentrate. IFDC used a starkly simplified classification compared to the classification used by USGS and proposed that agreement should be reached on PR resource terminology which should be as simple as possible. The report has profoundly influenced the PR scarcity debate, shifting the emphasis from depletion to the pollution angle of the phosphate problem. Various analysts adopted the findings of IFDC and USGS, and argued that that following depletion of reserves, uneconomic deposits (resources and occurrences) will remain available which will extend the lifetime of available deposits to thousands of years. Given the near total dependence of food production on PR, data on PR deposits must be transparent, comparable, reliable and credible. Based on an in-depth literature review, we analyze (i) how IFDC's simplified terminology compares to international best practice in resource classification and whether it is likely to yield data that meets the abovementioned requirements; (ii) whether the difference between ore reserves and reserves as concentrate is sufficiently noted in the literature, and (iii) whether the IFDC report and its estimate of PR reserves and resources is reliable. We conclude that, while there is a global development toward common criteria in resource reporting, IFDC's definitions contravene this development and - due to their

  4. Ore Reserve Estimation of Saprolite Nickel Using Inverse Distance Method in PIT Block 3A Banggai Area Central Sulawesi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaidir Noor, Muhammad

    2018-03-01

    Reserve estimation is one of important work in evaluating a mining project. It is estimation of the quality and quantity of the presence of minerals have economic value. Reserve calculation method plays an important role in determining the efficiency in commercial exploration of a deposit. This study was intended to calculate ore reserves contained in the study area especially Pit Block 3A. Nickel ore reserve was estimated by using detailed exploration data, processing by using Surpac 6.2 by Inverse Distance Weight: Squared Power estimation method. Ore estimation result obtained from 30 drilling data was 76453.5 ton of Saprolite with density of 1.5 ton/m3 and COG (Cut Off Grade) Ni ≥ 1.6 %, while overburden data was 112,570.8 tons with waste rock density of 1.2 ton/m3 . Striping Ratio (SR) was 1.47 : 1 smaller than Stripping Ratio ( SR ) were set of 1.60 : 1.

  5. Derelict Fishing Line Provides a Useful Proxy for Estimating Levels of Non-Compliance with No-Take Marine Reserves

    OpenAIRE

    Williamson, David H.; Ceccarelli, Daniela M.; Evans, Richard D.; Hill, Jos K.; Russ, Garry R.

    2014-01-01

    No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) are increasingly being established to conserve or restore biodiversity and to enhance the sustainability of fisheries. Although effectively designed and protected NTMR networks can yield conservation and fishery benefits, reserve effects often fail to manifest in systems where there are high levels of non-compliance by fishers (poaching). Obtaining reliable estimates of NTMR non-compliance can be expensive and logistically challenging, particularly in areas wit...

  6. Growth and metabolic characteristics of oleaginous microalgal isolates from Nilgiri biosphere Reserve of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thangavel, Kalaiselvi; Radha Krishnan, Preethi; Nagaiah, Srimeena; Kuppusamy, Senthil; Chinnasamy, Senthil; Rajadorai, Jude Sudhagar; Nellaiappan Olaganathan, Gopal; Dananjeyan, Balachandar

    2018-01-03

    Renewable energy for sustainable development is a subject of a worldwide debate since continuous utilization of non-renewable energy sources has a drastic impact on the environment and economy; a search for alternative energy resources is indispensable. Microalgae are promising and potential alternate energy resources for biodiesel production. Thus, our efforts were focused on surveying the natural diversity of microalgae for the production of biodiesel. The present study aimed at identification, isolation, and characterization of oleaginous microalgae from shola forests of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve (NBR), the biodiversity hot spot of India, where the microalgal diversity has not yet been systematically investigated. Overall the higher biomass yield, higher lipid accumulation and thermotolerance observed in the isolated microalgal strains have been found to be the desirable traits for the efficient biodiesel production. Species composition and diversity analysis yielded ten potential microalgal isolates belonging to Chlorophyceae and Cyanophyceae classes. The chlorophytes exhibited higher growth rate, maximum biomass yield, and higher lipid accumulation than Cyanophyceae. Among the chlorophytes, the best performing strains were identified and represented by Acutodesmus dissociatus (TGA1), Chlorella sp. (TGA2), Chlamydomonadales sp. (TGA3) and Hindakia tetrachotoma (PGA1). The Chlamydomonadales sp. recorded with the highest growth rate, lipid accumulation and biomass yield of 0.28 ± 0.03 day -1 (μ exp ), 29.7 ± 0.69% and 134.17 ± 16.87 mg L -1  day -1 , respectively. It was also found to grow well at various temperatures, viz., 25 °C, 35 °C, and 45 °C, indicating its suitability for open pond cultivation. The fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis of stationary phase cultures of selected four algal strains by tandem mass spectrograph showed C16:0, C18:1 and C18:3 as dominant fatty acids suitable for biodiesel production. All the three

  7. Estimating forest structure parameters within Fort Lewis Military Reservation using airborne laser scanner (LIDAR) data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hans-Erik Andersen; Jeffrey R. Foster; Stephen E. Reutebuch

    2003-01-01

    Three-dimensional (3-D) forest structure information is critical to support a variety of ecosystem management objectives on the Fort Lewis Military Reservation, including habitat assessment, ecological restoration, fire management, and commercial timber harvest. In particular, the Forestry Program at Fort Lewis requires measurements of shrub, understory, and overstory...

  8. Using basal area to estimate aboveground carbon stocks in forests: La Primavera Biosphere's Reserve, Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balderas Torres, Arturo; Lovett, Jonathan Cranidge

    2012-01-01

    Increasing use of woody plants for greenhouse gas mitigation has led to demand for rapid, cost-effective estimation of forest carbon stocks. Bole diameter is readily measured and basal area can be correlated to biomass and carbon through application of allometric equations. We explore different

  9. Whole Genome Re-Sequencing Identifies a Quantitative Trait Locus Repressing Carbon Reserve Accumulation during Optimal Growth in Chlamydomonas reinhardtii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goold, Hugh Douglas; Nguyen, Hoa Mai; Kong, Fantao; Beyly-Adriano, Audrey; Légeret, Bertrand; Billon, Emmanuelle; Cuiné, Stéphan; Beisson, Fred; Peltier, Gilles; Li-Beisson, Yonghua

    2016-01-01

    Microalgae have emerged as a promising source for biofuel production. Massive oil and starch accumulation in microalgae is possible, but occurs mostly when biomass growth is impaired. The molecular networks underlying the negative correlation between growth and reserve formation are not known. Thus isolation of strains capable of accumulating carbon reserves during optimal growth would be highly desirable. To this end, we screened an insertional mutant library of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii for alterations in oil content. A mutant accumulating five times more oil and twice more starch than wild-type during optimal growth was isolated and named constitutive oil accumulator 1 (coa1). Growth in photobioreactors under highly controlled conditions revealed that the increase in oil and starch content in coa1 was dependent on light intensity. Genetic analysis and DNA hybridization pointed to a single insertional event responsible for the phenotype. Whole genome re-sequencing identified in coa1 a >200 kb deletion on chromosome 14 containing 41 genes. This study demonstrates that, 1), the generation of algal strains accumulating higher reserve amount without compromising biomass accumulation is feasible; 2), light is an important parameter in phenotypic analysis; and 3), a chromosomal region (Quantitative Trait Locus) acts as suppressor of carbon reserve accumulation during optimal growth. PMID:27141848

  10. Identification of Reservoir Thickness and Estimation of Hydrocarbon Reservation used the Pre-Stack Depth Migration (PSDM in Cikung Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudra Irawan

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Information from the geological data shows that the Cikung field has the complex structure which is characterized by carbonate reef. Therefore, it is required in the domain depth migration (PSDM using interval velocity model is sensitive to variations in vertical and horizontal velocity to identify the thickness of the reservoir and estimation of hydrocarbon reserves. Stages include making the depth structure maps, map making the thickness of the reservoir, and the calculation of hydrocarbon reserves. The results showed that the thickness of the reservoir in Cikung Field, estimated to range from 71 meters to 175 meters with the prospect reservoir is at a depth of 1216 meters to 1247 meters from the surface. Hydrocarbon deposits (oil is estimated at 1,134 × 106 or 1,311 × 108 kilo litre by the porosity of 22.6% and 70.7% water saturation.

  11. Estimating growth of SMES using a logit model: Evidence from manufacturing companies in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amith Vikram Megaravalli

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an effort has been put to develop a model for estimating growth based on logit re-gression (logit and implemented the model to Italian manufacturing companies. Our data set consists of 8232 SMEs of Italy. To estimate the growth of the firm an innovative approach that considers annual statements issued the year before the accelerated growth has been considered as the effective estimators of firm growth. The result of the logit showed that return on asset, log (cash flow and log (Inventory positively affect in estimating the growth of the high growth firm whereas working capital turnover times negatively affects in estimating the growth of the firm. The discriminant power of the model using Receiver Operating Characteristics curve shows 72.35%, which means the model is fair in terms of estimating the growth.

  12. Influence of oil/gas reservoir driving conditions on reserves estimation using computer simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisław Rychlicki

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the methods of assessing reserves is a calibration of a numerical model of a field with assumed driving conditions of the field. The influence of various energy systems assumed for the calculation on the calibration results are presented in the paper. A light oil field was selected for verification of resources on the basis of an analysis of driving conditions. At the first stage of calculations, a „Black Oil” type numerical model was used. The results of a classical „Black – Oil” model made the authors search for an alternative description of energy conditions in the reservoir. Therefore, a modified „Black-Oil” model with „vaporized oil” option, assuming that initially, after evaporation, the condensate in the reservoir was in a gaseous phase was used. The obtained simulation results for the analyzed reservoir prove the accuracy of energy conditions in the reservoir.

  13. Estimating annual growth losses from drought in loblolly pine plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ralph L. Amateis; Harold E. Burkhart; Daniel Waiswa

    2013-01-01

    Growth data over the past 10 years from loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantations established across the natural range of the species were linked with annual rainfall data over the same period to evaluate the impact of drought on stand growth. Regression procedures were used to determine (1) whether dominant height growth or basal area growth or...

  14. The role of renal function reserve estimation in children with hydronephrosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jindal B

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Glomerular filtration rate (GFR is the most widely used indicator of kidney function although it does not invariably reflect the functional status after renal injury. The concept of renal function reserve (RFR as the ability of the kidney to increase GFR following a protein load was introduced in 1980s. In hydronephrotic children, the acute hemodynamic response to intravenous protein load can cause changes in renal function that are different from changes in normal controls. Materials and Methods: RFR was evaluated in 21 children with hydronephrosis (group I - study group and in 20 healthy children (group II - control group by subtracting the baseline GFR from the stimulated GFR following an intravenous protein load. GFR was determined by double compartment-2 plasma sample method using 99m Tc DTPA (diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid radioisotope as the filtration agent. Results: The baseline GFR, stimulated GFR and RFR of hydronephrotic children (group I was found to be significantly lower ( P = 0.01, P = 0.001 and P = 0.03 respectively as compared with healthy normal children (group II. The stimulated GFR shows a strong correlation with the baseline GFR in both the groups, but the RFR shows a high inverse correlation to the baseline GFR in controls and a very low correlation in study group. Conclusion: RFR is preserved in children with hydronephrosis, but it is reduced in comparison to healthy children. However, its clinical utility to unmask the severity of hydronephrosis is limited by the various limiting factors.

  15. Regulation of the Na(+)-K+ pump activity and estimation of the reserve capacity in intact rat peritoneal mast cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Johansen, Torben

    1990-01-01

    Evidence is provided that regulation of the Na(+)-K+ pump activity in rat peritoneal mast cells occurs mainly through stimulation of the pump from inside the plasma membrane by sodium. It is demonstrated that there is a large reserve capacity for the exchange of intracellular sodium...... with extracellular potassium in these cells. The maximal pump activity was estimated to be 3230 pmol/10(6) cells per min and Km for extracellular potassium was 1.5 mM....

  16. Mathematical modeling of the processes of estimating reserves of iron ore raw materials in conditions of uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    N. N. Nekrasova; E. G. Kabulova; A. A. Maslov

    2016-01-01

    Summary. This article proposed to estimate the technological parameters of mining and metallurgical industry (iron ore stocks), given the fuzzy set values in conditions of uncertainty using the balance sheet and industrial methods of calculation of reserves of ore. Due to the fact that the modeling of the processes of extraction of ore is associated with parameters of the equations that contain variables with different nature of uncertainty, it is better to provide all the information on a si...

  17. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  18. Rumen microbial growth estimation using in vitro radiophosphorous incorporation technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueno, Ives Claudio da Silva; Machado, Mariana de Carvalho; Cabral Filho, Sergio Lucio Salomon; Gobbo, Sarita Priscila; Vitti, Dorinha Miriam Silber Schmidt; Abdalla, Adibe Luiz [Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura (CENA), Piracicaba, SP (Brazil)

    2002-07-01

    Rumen microorganisms are able to transform low biological value nitrogen of feed stuff into high quality protein. To determine how much microbial protein that process forms, radiomarkers can be used. Radiophosphorous has been used to mark microbial protein, as element P is present in all rumen microorganisms (as phospholipids) and the P:N ratio of rumen biomass is quite constant. The aim of this work was to estimate microbial synthesis from feedstuff commonly used in ruminant nutrition in Brazil. Tested feeds were fresh alfalfa, raw sugarcane bagasse, rice hulls, rice meal, soybean meal, wheat meal, Tifton hay, leucaena, dehydrated citrus pulp, wet brewers' grains and cottonseed meal. {sup 32} P-labelled phosphate solution was used as marker for microbial protein. Results showed the diversity of feeds by distinct quantities of nitrogen incorporated into microbial mass. Low nutrient availability feeds (sugarcane bagasse and rice hulls) promoted the lowest values of incorporated nitrogen. Nitrogen incorporation showed positive relationship (r=0.56; P=0.06) with the rate of degradation and negative relationship (r=-0.59; P<0.05) with fiber content of feeds. The results highlight that easier fermentable feeds (higher rates of degradation) and/or with lower fiber contents promote a more efficient microbial growth and better performance for the host animal. (author)

  19. Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Mark W; Dolanc, Christopher R; Gao, Hui; Strauss, Sharon Y; Schwartz, Ari C; Williams, John N; Tang, Ya

    2013-01-01

    Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1) whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2) if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3) how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th) century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix) strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

  20. Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark W Schwartz

    Full Text Available Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1 whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2 if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3 how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

  1. Growth of PETROBRAS international gas reserves in Latin America; Crescimento das reservas internacionais de gas da PETROBRAS na America Latina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabe, Claudio [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Syrio, Julio Cesar; Pizarro, Jorge Oscar de Sant' Anna [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    This paper presents the work developed at PETROBRAS International to increase the natural gas reserves and production in Latin America. The results indicate that the company's new strategic focus has been providing an increase of its production of natural gas in 270%, in which daily production in September reached 84192 boed. The same happened with reserves in 2002, that increased in 37,2 billions m{sup 3}. This growth was mainly due to incorporation of Perez Conpanc and Petrolera Santa Fe. (author)

  2. The use of stored carbon reserves in growth of temperate tree roots and leaf buds: Analyses using radiocarbon measurements and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaudinski, J.B.; Torn, M.S.; Riley, W.J.; Swanston, C.; Trumbore, S.E.; Joslin, J.D.; Majdi, H.; Dawson, T.E.; Hanson, P.J.

    2009-02-01

    Characterizing the use of carbon (C) reserves in trees is important for understanding regional and global C cycles, stress responses, asynchrony between photosynthetic activity and growth demand, and isotopic exchanges in studies of tree physiology and ecosystem C cycling. Using an inadvertent, whole-ecosystem radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) release in a temperate deciduous oak forest and numerical modeling, we estimated that the mean age of stored C used to grow both leaf buds and new roots is 0.7 years and about 55% of new-root growth annually comes from stored C. Therefore, the calculated mean age of C used to grow new-root tissue is {approx}0.4 years. In short, new roots contain a lot of stored C but it is young in age. Additionally, the type of structure used to model stored C input is important. Model structures that did not include storage, or that assumed stored and new C mixed well (within root or shoot tissues) before being used for root growth, did not fit the data nearly as well as when a distinct storage pool was used. Consistent with these whole-ecosystem labeling results, the mean age of C in new-root tissues determined using 'bomb-{sup 14}C' in three additional forest sites in North America and Europe (one deciduous, two coniferous) was less than 1-2 years. The effect of stored reserves on estimated ages of fine roots is unlikely to be large in most natural abundance isotope studies. However, models of root C dynamics should take stored reserves into account, particularly for pulse-labeling studies and fast-cycling roots (<1 years).

  3. Estimation of individual growth trajectories when repeated measures are missing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brooks, Mollie Elizabeth; Clements, Christopher; Pemberton, Josephine

    2017-01-01

    Individuals in a population vary in their growth due to hidden and observed factors such as age, genetics, environment, disease, and carryover effects from past environments. Because size affects fitness, growth trajectories scale up to affect population dynamics. However, it can be difficult to ...

  4. Heritability estimates for different Kleiber ratios obtained from growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This ratio, defined as growth rate/body m"ss0'75, was suggested for measuring growth efficiency ... Year, age of dam and sex of animal were investigated as possible fixed effects. Calves were bom almost ... For the Kleiber. 7T ratios mentioned above only year-season and sex of animal were found to be significant (P < 0.01) ...

  5. Postnatal growth, age estimation and development of foraging ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    growth after the first year (Kunz and Stern 1995). The values of the lengths of forearm and epiphyseal gap dur- ing their linear phases of growth increased during the preflight period and decreased during the postflight period, and were reliable for deriving equations to esti- mate the age of young bats (e.g. Kunz and Robson ...

  6. OPTIMIZATION OF MANAGEMENT APPROACHES: RESERVES GROWTH OF EFFICIENCY OF NR-MANAGEMENT IN THE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sh. Fedorova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes one of the possible ways of building more eff ective relationships between managers and subordinates, taking into account variable range of individual motivation, capabilities and potential of people belonging to diff erent types of employees.The topic is urgent due to the changes in modern business processes that require new approaches to management. Goal/objectives. Our aim is to develop an approach to the creation of human resources management model that takes into account not only the knowledge and skills of employees, but also their deeper individual characteristics. The approach accounts for the hierarchy of one's life values and drives, temperament, strains, habitual and unfamiliar social roles, way of thinking, preferred pattern of communication, peculiarities of the behavior in power relations and a host of other features. We suggest that asking them into account is an incredible opportunity for productivity growth and team eff ectiveness improvements.Methodology. The theoretical basis of the article are studies of Russian and foreign authors on the classifications and typologies of personality, of social roles, roles in the team, as well as subordinate types. The article refl ects the results of studies and observations of the authors on the peculiarities of manifestation of diff erent types of people in decision-making and business communications.Results. We suggest the typology of subordinates describing the key characteristics and preferences of representatives of the types. The typology allows to build relationships between managers and subordinates more eff ectively.Conclusions/significance. We propose typology of subordinates that can be used to develop management models focused on certain types of employees. This, in turn, may be useful for structuring of human management, retrieval of unused but eff ective management tools, and for building an eff ective staff -management relations network as a whole to

  7. Estimation of the growth curve parameters in Macrobrachium rosenbergii

    OpenAIRE

    Nagulu, Banoth; Satyanarayana , Y.; Srinivasa, Rao P.; Gopal , Krishna

    2011-01-01

    Growth is one of the most important characteristics of cultured species. The objective of this study was to determine the fitness of linear, log linear, polynomial, exponential and Logistic functions to the growth curves of Macrobrachium rosenbergii obtained by using weekly records of live weight, total length, head length, claw length, and last segment length from 20 to 192 days of age. The models were evaluated according to the coefficient of determination (R2), and error sum off square (ES...

  8. The Biasing Effects of Unmodeled ARMA Time Series Processes on Latent Growth Curve Model Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen; Fan, Xitao; Witta, Lea

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of estimated growth curve models when there is stationary autocorrelation among manifest variable errors. The results suggest that when, in practice, growth curve models are fitted to longitudinal data, alternative rival hypotheses to consider would include growth models that also specify…

  9. Estimation of growth curve parameters in Konya Merino sheep ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was to determine the fitness of Quadratic, Cubic, Gompertz and Logistic functions to the growth curves of Konya Merino lambs obtained by using monthly records of live weight from birth to 480 days of age. The models were evaluated according to determination coefficient (R2), mean square ...

  10. Estimation of algal colonization growth on mortar surface using a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Thu-Hien Tran

    method can successfully capture the functional relationship between the algal colonization growth and its influencing factors with a satisfactory outcome (the coefficient of determination R2 .... be trained very fast since its training process requires solving only a set of linear equations. The LS-SVR's model establishment boils ...

  11. Inflation and Economic Growth: An Estimate of the Threshold Level ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the relationship between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria, from 1970 to 2009. It adapted the Khan and Sendhadji's (2001) threshold regression technique to examine the existence of optimal inflation. The Granger causality test was utilised to test the causal relationship between inflation and ...

  12. Short communication Estimation of growth curve parameters in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ikeskin

    Abstract. The objective of this study was to determine the fitness of Quadratic, Cubic, Gompertz and Logistic functions to the growth curves of Konya Merino lambs obtained by using monthly records of live weight from birth to 480 days of age. The models were evaluated according to determination coefficient (R2), mean.

  13. Variance component and heritability estimates for growth traits in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    CANTET, R.J.C., KRESS, D.D., ANDERSON, D,C., DOORNBOS,. D.8., BURFENING, P.J. & BLACKWELL, R.L., 1988. Direct and maternal variances and covariances and maternal phenotypic effects on pre-weaning growth of beef cattle. J. Anint. Sci. 66,648. DEESE, R.E. & KOGER, M., 1967. Maternal effects on pre-weaning.

  14. Fish growth parameters are commonly estimated from the counts of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    spamer

    MacPHERSON G. R. 1992 — Age and growth of the narrow- barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson. Lacépède, 1800) in north-east Queensland waters. Aust. J. mar. Freshwat. Res. 43: 1269–1282. MOURNING, T. E., FAUSCH, K. D. and C. GOWAN 1994 —. Comparison of visible implant tags and floy ...

  15. Derelict fishing line provides a useful proxy for estimating levels of non-compliance with no-take marine reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, David H; Ceccarelli, Daniela M; Evans, Richard D; Hill, Jos K; Russ, Garry R

    2014-01-01

    No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) are increasingly being established to conserve or restore biodiversity and to enhance the sustainability of fisheries. Although effectively designed and protected NTMR networks can yield conservation and fishery benefits, reserve effects often fail to manifest in systems where there are high levels of non-compliance by fishers (poaching). Obtaining reliable estimates of NTMR non-compliance can be expensive and logistically challenging, particularly in areas with limited or non-existent resources for conducting surveillance and enforcement. Here we assess the utility of density estimates and re-accumulation rates of derelict (lost and abandoned) fishing line as a proxy for fishing effort and NTMR non-compliance on fringing coral reefs in three island groups of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP), Australia. Densities of derelict fishing line were consistently lower on reefs within old (>20 year) NTMRs than on non-NTMR reefs (significantly in the Palm and Whitsunday Islands), whereas line densities did not differ significantly between reefs in new NTMRs (5 years of protection) and non-NTMR reefs. A manipulative experiment in which derelict fishing lines were removed from a subset of the monitoring sites demonstrated that lines re-accumulated on NTMR reefs at approximately one third (32.4%) of the rate observed on non-NTMR reefs over a thirty-two month period. Although these inshore NTMRs have long been considered some of the best protected within the GBRMP, evidence presented here suggests that the level of non-compliance with NTMR regulations is higher than previously assumed.

  16. Derelict fishing line provides a useful proxy for estimating levels of non-compliance with no-take marine reserves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H Williamson

    Full Text Available No-take marine reserves (NTMRs are increasingly being established to conserve or restore biodiversity and to enhance the sustainability of fisheries. Although effectively designed and protected NTMR networks can yield conservation and fishery benefits, reserve effects often fail to manifest in systems where there are high levels of non-compliance by fishers (poaching. Obtaining reliable estimates of NTMR non-compliance can be expensive and logistically challenging, particularly in areas with limited or non-existent resources for conducting surveillance and enforcement. Here we assess the utility of density estimates and re-accumulation rates of derelict (lost and abandoned fishing line as a proxy for fishing effort and NTMR non-compliance on fringing coral reefs in three island groups of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP, Australia. Densities of derelict fishing line were consistently lower on reefs within old (>20 year NTMRs than on non-NTMR reefs (significantly in the Palm and Whitsunday Islands, whereas line densities did not differ significantly between reefs in new NTMRs (5 years of protection and non-NTMR reefs. A manipulative experiment in which derelict fishing lines were removed from a subset of the monitoring sites demonstrated that lines re-accumulated on NTMR reefs at approximately one third (32.4% of the rate observed on non-NTMR reefs over a thirty-two month period. Although these inshore NTMRs have long been considered some of the best protected within the GBRMP, evidence presented here suggests that the level of non-compliance with NTMR regulations is higher than previously assumed.

  17. Dynamic contents of energy and organic nutrient in steppe growths of the Mohelenská Serpentine Steppe National Nature Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Veselý

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to determine the dynamics in the content of organic nutrients, ash and energy in dry matter of growths within the Mohelenská Serpentine Steppe National Nature Reserve (NPR, and to document their initial nutritive value before the intended grazing. Plant samples in 1995 and 1996 during the growing season in 14-days intervals from the area of 3 × 1 m2. Amounts of dry matter, fibre, nitrogen substances, fat and ashes were determined in growths according to the ANONYM (2001. Nitrogen-free extract substances (BNLV were determined by final calculating; BE, ME, NEL, NEV, PDIN and PDIE were calculated using the regression equations (VESELÝ and ZEMAN, 1995, 1997. Combining ratio (SP was calculated according to the relation: SP = PDIN (g/NEL (MJ. The dynamics of the contents of dry matter, organic nutrients, ashes and energy were assessed in the growth during the vegetation period and the dynamics was compared with standardized requirements of sheep (no pregnant ewe. Regression and correlation relations for nutrition value of the growths during vegetation period were calculated by use of mathematical-statistical analysis. Only statistically significantly (P<0.05 different parameters form the zero are presented in the paper. The content of dry matter in the growths culminated in summer months (places D8, E13, B17 and it was accompanied by depression in autumn months. After the highest content of crude protein, PDIN and PDIE recorded in spring months summer depression (August followed, this depression was partly balanced by autumn growth of vegetation. The content of ash in steppe growths increased during evaluated period. Similar tendency was registered for fat. Also the contents of fibre and BNLV linearly increased. The contents of nitrogen nutrients and energy corresponded with standardized requirements for sheep during whole vegetation period. Conversely the content of fibre highly exceeded the requirement except in spring

  18. Estimation of the growth curve and heritability of the growth rate for giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) cubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, T D; Wang, C D; Jin, L; Wei, M; Wu, K; Zhang, Y H; Zhang, H M; Li, D S

    2015-03-27

    Giant panda cubs have a low survival rate during the newborn and early growth stages. However, the growth and developmental parameters of giant panda cubs during the early lactation stage (from birth to 6 months) are not well known. We examined the growth and development of giant panda cubs by the Chapman growth curve model and estimated the heritability of the maximum growth rate at the early lactation stage. We found that 83 giant panda cubs reached their maximum growth rate at approximately 75-120 days after birth. The body weight of cubs at 75 days was 4285.99 g. Furthermore, we estimated that the heritability of the maximum growth rate was moderate (h(2) = 0.38). Our study describes the growth and development of giant panda cubs at the early lactation stage and provides valuable growth benchmarks. We anticipate that our results will be a starting point for more detailed research on increasing the survival rate of giant panda cubs. Feeding programs for giant panda cubs need further improvement.

  19. Bioinsecticidal activity of Talisia esculenta reserve protein on growth and serine digestive enzymes during larval development of Anticarsia gemmatalis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macedo, Maria Lígia R; Freire, Maria das Graças M; Kubo, Carlos Eduardo G; Parra, José Roberto P

    2011-01-01

    Plants synthesize a variety of molecules to defend themselves against an attack by insects. Talisin is a reserve protein from Talisia esculenta seeds, the first to be characterized from the family Sapindaceae. In this study, the insecticidal activity of Talisin was tested by incorporating the reserve protein into an artificial diet fed to the velvetbean caterpillar Anticarsia gemmatalis, the major pest of soybean crops in Brazil. At 1.5% (w/w) of the dietary protein, Talisin affected larval growth, pupal weight, development and mortality, adult fertility and longevity, and produced malformations in pupae and adult insects. Talisin inhibited the trypsin-like activity of larval midgut homogenates. The trypsin activity in Talisin-fed larvae was sensitive to Talisin, indicating that no novel protease-resistant to Talisin was induced in Talisin-fed larvae. Affinity chromatography showed that Talisin bound to midgut proteinases of the insect A. gemmatalis, but was resistant to enzymatic digestion by these larval proteinases. The transformation of genes coding for this reserve protein could be useful for developing insect resistant crops. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Mathematical modeling of the processes of estimating reserves of iron ore raw materials in conditions of uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Nekrasova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. This article proposed to estimate the technological parameters of mining and metallurgical industry (iron ore stocks, given the fuzzy set values in conditions of uncertainty using the balance sheet and industrial methods of calculation of reserves of ore. Due to the fact that the modeling of the processes of extraction of ore is associated with parameters of the equations that contain variables with different nature of uncertainty, it is better to provide all the information on a single formal language of fuzzy set theory. Thus, the proposed model calculation and evaluation of reserves of iron ore by different methods in conditions of uncertainty geological information on the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets. In this case the undefined values are interpreted as intentionally "fuzzy", since this approach largely corresponds to the real industrial situation than the interpretation of such quantities in terms of random. Taken into account the fact that the application of the probabilistic approach leads to the identification of uncertainty with randomness, but in practice, the basic nature of uncertainty in the calculation of reserves of iron ore is unclear. Under the proposed approach, each fuzzy parameter is a corresponding membership function, to determine which proposed using a General algorithm, as the result of algebraic operations on arbitrary membership function of the inverse numerical method. Because of the existence of many models describing the same production process in different methods (for example, the balance model or industrial model and under different assumptions proposed to coordinate such models on the basis of the model of aggregation of heterogeneous information. For matching this kind of information, its generalization and adjustment of the outcome parameters, it is expedient to use the apparatus of fuzzy set theory that allows to obtain quantitative characteristics of imprecisely specified parameters and make the

  1. Genetic Parameter Estimation in Seedstock Swine Population for Growth Performances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Gwan Choi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters that are to be used for across-herd genetic evaluations of seed stock pigs at GGP level. Performance data with pedigree information collected from swine breeder farms in Korea were provided by Korea Animal Improvement Association (AIAK. Performance data were composed of final body weights at test days and ultrasound measures of back fat thickness (BF, rib eye area (EMA and retail cut percentage (RCP. Breeds of swine tested were Landrace, Yorkshire and Duroc. Days to 90 kg body weight (DAYS90 were estimated with linear function of age and ADG calculated from body weights at test days. Ultrasound measures were taken with A-mode ultrasound scanners by trained technicians. Number of performance records after censoring outliers and keeping records pigs only born from year 2000 were of 78,068 Duroc pigs, 101,821 Landrace pigs and 281,421 Yorkshire pigs. Models included contemporary groups defined by the same herd and the same seasons of births of the same year, which was regarded as fixed along with the effect of sex for all traits and body weight at test day as a linear covariate for ultrasound measures. REML estimation was processed with REMLF90 program. Heritability estimates were 0.40, 0.32, 0.21 0.39 for DAYS90, ADG, BF, EMA, RCP, respectively for Duroc population. Respective heritability estimates for Landrace population were 0.43, 0.41, 0.22, and 0.43 and for Yorkshire population were 0.36, 0.38, 0.22, and 0.42. Genetic correlation coefficients of DAYS90 with BF, EMA, or RCP were estimated to be 0.00 to 0.09, −0.15 to −0.25, 0.22 to 0.28, respectively for three breeds populations. Genetic correlation coefficients estimated between BF and EMA was −0.33 to −0.39. Genetic correlation coefficient estimated between BF and RCP was high and negative (−0.78 to −0.85 but the environmental correlation coefficients between these two traits was medium and negative (near −0

  2. Applying a particle filtering technique for canola crop growth stage estimation in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Abhijit; Tan, Weikai; Li, Yifeng; McNairn, Heather; Jiao, Xianfeng; Hosseini, Mehdi

    2017-10-01

    Accurate crop growth stage estimation is important in precision agriculture as it facilitates improved crop management, pest and disease mitigation and resource planning. Earth observation imagery, specifically Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, can provide field level growth estimates while covering regional scales. In this paper, RADARSAT-2 quad polarization and TerraSAR-X dual polarization SAR data and ground truth growth stage data are used to model the influence of canola growth stages on SAR imagery extracted parameters. The details of the growth stage modeling work are provided, including a) the development of a new crop growth stage indicator that is continuous and suitable as the state variable in the dynamic estimation procedure; b) a selection procedure for SAR polarimetric parameters that is sensitive to both linear and nonlinear dependency between variables; and c) procedures for compensation of SAR polarimetric parameters for different beam modes. The data was collected over three crop growth seasons in Manitoba, Canada, and the growth model provides the foundation of a novel dynamic filtering framework for real-time estimation of canola growth stages using the multi-sensor and multi-mode SAR data. A description of the dynamic filtering framework that uses particle filter as the estimator is also provided in this paper.

  3. Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Moira; Hryshko, Dmytro; Manovskii, Iourii

    magnitudes of the permanent and transitory innovations in earnings. When estimation is based on the earnings moments in levels, the variance of transitory shocks is found to be relatively high. When the moments in differences are used, the variance of the permanent component is relatively high instead. We...

  4. Estimates of age, growth and mortality of spotted catfish, Arius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Spotted catfish is a benthic species that can be found abundantly off the coast of Yunlin in southwestern Taiwan. Its biological parameters are little known. In this study, life history parameters of this species were estimated using samples caught by bottom trawling. The spotted catfish was the major bycatch species which ...

  5. Estimation of genetic parameters for growth traits in Brangus cattle

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2492989

    Abstract. A combination of multiple trait and repeatability models were used to estimate genetic parameters for birth weight (BW), weaning weight (WW), yearling weight (YW), eighteen month weight (FW) and three measurements of mature weight (MW) using 23 768 records obtained from the South African Brangus.

  6. Estimating Leaching Requirements for Barley Growth under Saline Irrigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Al-Busaidi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The utilization of marginal water resources for agriculture is receiving considerable attention. The lands irrigated with saline water are required to reduce salt accumulations through leaching and/or drainage practices. A field experiment was carried out to investigate the effect of saline irrigation and leaching fraction on barley (Hordeum vulgare L. growth. For this purpose highly saline water was diluted to the salinity levels of 3, 6 and 9 dS m-1 and applied by drip irrigation at 0.0, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.25 leaching fractions (LF. The results of the experiment showed that both quantity and quality of water regulated salts distribution within the soil in the following manner: a the salts were found higher near or immediate below the soil surface; b an enhanced LF carried more salts down the soil horizon but there was no significant difference in plant yield between different treatments of leaching fractions. Salinity of water significantly impaired barley growth. The good drainage of sandy soil enhanced the leaching process and minimized the differences between leaching fractions. The increment in saline treatments (3, 6 and 9 dS m-1 added more salts and stressed plant growth. However, the conjunctive use of marginal water at proportional LF could be effective in enhancing the yield potential of crops in water-scarce areas.

  7. Crowding and Follicular Fate: Spatial Determinants of Follicular Reserve and Activation of Follicular Growth in the Mammalian Ovary.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Gaytan

    Full Text Available Initiation of growth of resting ovarian follicles is a key phenomenon for providing an adequate number of mature oocytes in each ovulation, while preventing premature exhaustion of primordial follicle reserve during the reproductive lifespan. Resting follicle dynamics strongly suggest that primordial follicles are under constant inhibitory influences, by mechanisms and factors whose nature remains ill defined. In this work, we aimed to assess the influence of spatial determinants, with special attention to clustering patterns and crowding, on the fate of early follicles in the adult mouse and human ovary. To this end, detailed histological and morphometric analyses, targeting resting and early growing follicles, were conducted in ovaries from mice, either wild type (WT or genetically modified to lack kisspeptin receptor expression (Kiss1r KO, and healthy adult women. Kiss1r KO mice were studied as model of persistent hypogonadotropism and anovulation. Different qualitative and quantitative indices of the patterns of spatial distribution of resting and early growing follicles in the mouse and human ovary, including the Morisita's index of clustering, were obtained. Our results show that resting primordial follicles display a clear-cut clustered pattern of spatial distribution in adult mouse and human ovaries, and that resting follicle aggrupation is inversely correlated with the proportion of follicles initiating growth and entering into the growing pool. As a whole, our data suggest that resting follicle crowding, defined by changes in density and clustered pattern of distribution, is a major determinant of follicular activation and the fate of ovarian reserve. Uneven follicle crowding would constitute the structural counterpart of the major humoral regulators of early follicular growth, with potential implications in ovarian ageing and pathophysiology.

  8. Initial-rate based method for estimating the maximum heterotrophic growth rate parameter (μHmax).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fall, C; Hooijmans, C M; Esparza-Soto, M; Olguin, M T; Bâ, K M

    2012-07-01

    Currently, the method most used for measuring the maximum specific growth rate (μ(Hmax)) of heterotrophic biomass is by respirometry, using growth batch tests performed at high food/microorganism ratio. No other technique has been suggested, although the former approach was criticized for providing kinetic constants that could be unrepresentative of the original biomass. An alternative method (seed-increments) is proposed, which relies on measuring the initial rates of respiration (r(O2)(_ini)) at different seeding levels, in a single batch, and in the presence of excess readily biodegradable substrate (S(S)). The ASM1-based underlying equations were developed, which showed that μ(Hmax) could be estimated through the slope of the linear function of r(O2)(_ini)·(V(WW)+v(ML)) vs v(ML) (volume of mixed liquor inoculum); V(WW) represent the wastewater volume added. The procedure was tested, being easy to apply; the postulated linearity was constantly observed and the method is claimed to measure the characteristics of the biomass of interest. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. An Evaluation of Growth Models as Predictive Tools for Estimates at Completion (EAC)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Trahan, Elizabeth N

    2009-01-01

    ...) as the Estimates at Completion (EAC). Our research evaluates the prospect of nonlinear growth modeling as an alternative to the current predictive tools used for calculating EAC, such as the Cost Performance Index (CPI...

  10. Small-vessel Survey and Auction Sampling to Estimate Growth and Maturity of Eteline Snappers

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Small-vessel Survey and Auction Sampling to Estimate Growth and Maturity of Eteline Snappers and Improve Data-Limited Stock Assessments. This biosampling project...

  11. “External Debt, Domestic Investment and Economic Growth in Cameroon” A system Estimation Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Njimanted G. FORGHA; Mukete E. MBELLA; Forbe H. NGANGNCHI

    2014-01-01

    The feedback of external debt on economic growth through gross domestic investment has provided quite interesting results throughout the world especially in developing countries where external and internal borrowing have been a tradition. Based on a system estimation approach, using Two Stage Least Squares as an estimation technique in the case of Cameroon for a period of 34 years (1980-2013), the results reveal that while domestic investment increases economic growth, external debt retards e...

  12. Genetic and phenotypic parameter estimates for growth traits of Hainan Black goat in southern China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, Han Lin; Gu, Li Hong; Sun, Yanyan; Xu, Tie Shan; Rong, Guang

    2015-01-01

    Genetic improvement of the growth of Hainan Black goats is a major concern as the breed is an important meat-type goat raised in southern China. To estimate genetic and phenotypic parameters for growth traits for this breed, a population of 1354 Hainan Black goats born and maintained at the

  13. Some estimates of growth and mortality from the Malheur National Forest in eastern Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald R. Gedney; Floyd A. Johnson; Vernon E. Hicks

    1959-01-01

    During 1955-56 an inventory was made of forested land in the Middle Fork Working Circle of the Malheur National Forest to provide information necessary for calculation of the allowable cut and for other management purposes. The growth and mortality estimates in the following report were obtained from this inventory. Although the estimates apply directly to the Middle...

  14. Estimating Crop Growth Stage by Combining Meteorological and Remote Sensing Based Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champagne, C.; Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; Davidson, A. M.; Chipanshi, A.; Zhang, Y.; Shang, J.

    2016-12-01

    Estimations of seeding, harvest and phenological growth stage of crops are important sources of information for monitoring crop progress and crop yield forecasting. Growth stage has been traditionally estimated at the regional level through surveys, which rely on field staff to collect the information. Automated techniques to estimate growth stage have included agrometeorological approaches that use temperature and day length information to estimate accumulated heat and photoperiod, with thresholds used to determine when these stages are most likely. These approaches however, are crop and hybrid dependent, and can give widely varying results depending on the method used, particularly if the seeding date is unknown. Methods to estimate growth stage from remote sensing have progressed greatly in the past decade, with time series information from the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) the most common approach. Time series NDVI provide information on growth stage through a variety of techniques, including fitting functions to a series of measured NDVI values or smoothing these values and using thresholds to detect changes in slope that are indicative of rapidly increasing or decreasing `greeness' in the vegetation cover. The key limitations of these techniques for agriculture are frequent cloud cover in optical data that lead to errors in estimating local features in the time series function, and the incongruity between changes in greenness and traditional agricultural growth stages. There is great potential to combine both meteorological approaches and remote sensing to overcome the limitations of each technique. This research will examine the accuracy of both meteorological and remote sensing approaches over several agricultural sites in Canada, and look at the potential to integrate these techniques to provide improved estimates of crop growth stage for common field crops.

  15. Regularized quantile regression for SNP marker estimation of pig growth curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barroso, L M A; Nascimento, M; Nascimento, A C C; Silva, F F; Serão, N V L; Cruz, C D; Resende, M D V; Silva, F L; Azevedo, C F; Lopes, P S; Guimarães, S E F

    2017-01-01

    Genomic growth curves are generally defined only in terms of population mean; an alternative approach that has not yet been exploited in genomic analyses of growth curves is the Quantile Regression (QR). This methodology allows for the estimation of marker effects at different levels of the variable of interest. We aimed to propose and evaluate a regularized quantile regression for SNP marker effect estimation of pig growth curves, as well as to identify the chromosome regions of the most relevant markers and to estimate the genetic individual weight trajectory over time (genomic growth curve) under different quantiles (levels). The regularized quantile regression (RQR) enabled the discovery, at different levels of interest (quantiles), of the most relevant markers allowing for the identification of QTL regions. We found the same relevant markers simultaneously affecting different growth curve parameters (mature weight and maturity rate): two (ALGA0096701 and ALGA0029483) for RQR(0.2), one (ALGA0096701) for RQR(0.5), and one (ALGA0003761) for RQR(0.8). Three average genomic growth curves were obtained and the behavior was explained by the curve in quantile 0.2, which differed from the others. RQR allowed for the construction of genomic growth curves, which is the key to identifying and selecting the most desirable animals for breeding purposes. Furthermore, the proposed model enabled us to find, at different levels of interest (quantiles), the most relevant markers for each trait (growth curve parameter estimates) and their respective chromosomal positions (identification of new QTL regions for growth curves in pigs). These markers can be exploited under the context of marker assisted selection while aiming to change the shape of pig growth curves.

  16. Estimation of median growth curves for children up two years old based on biresponse local linear estimator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamidah, Nur; Rifada, Marisa

    2016-03-01

    There is significant of the coeficient correlation between weight and height of the children. Therefore, the simultaneous model estimation is better than partial single response approach. In this study we investigate the pattern of sex difference in growth curve of children from birth up to two years of age in Surabaya, Indonesia based on biresponse model. The data was collected in a longitudinal representative sample of the Surabaya population of healthy children that consists of two response variables i.e. weight (kg) and height (cm). While a predictor variable is age (month). Based on generalized cross validation criterion, the modeling result based on biresponse model by using local linear estimator for boy and girl growth curve gives optimal bandwidth i.e 1.41 and 1.56 and the determination coefficient (R2) i.e. 99.99% and 99.98%,.respectively. Both boy and girl curves satisfy the goodness of fit criterion i.e..the determination coefficient tends to one. Also, there is difference pattern of growth curve between boy and girl. The boy median growth curves is higher than those of girl curve.

  17. Estimating continuous monthly baseflow time series and their possible applications in the context of the ecological reserve

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smakhtin, VU

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available (river and groundwater) are, therefore, dependent. In this example, the assumption is that IFRs (river reserve flows) determine the extent to which groundwater resources may be impacted in the absence of any surface water resource development (the impacts... (IFRs) are used instead of reference natural streamflow time series. The corresponding groundwater storage time series will then represent the groundwater reserve. These storages may provisionally be called ?IFR driven?. Two component reserve time series...

  18. A Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Capital Inflow and Growth in sub Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chimere Okechukwu Iheonu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically analysed the impact of capital inflow on growth in sub Saharan Africa employing the Pooled Mean Group estimator from the years 1985 to 2015. The study utilised Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, Official Development Assistance and Foreign Aid (ODA and Remittance (REM as indicators of capital inflow. Short run result indicates that the various forms of capital inflow do not have significant impact on growth but while FDI and REM were negatively related to growth, AID was positively related to growth. However, in the long run, FDI and AID have a positive and significant impact on growth while REM has a negative and significant impact on growth in sub Saharan Africa. The study concludes that planning and legislative lags are inferential from the insignificance of capital inflows on growth in the short run, while growth falls in the long run as a result of increase in labour’s income earned in diaspora. The study recommends that in the short run, economic policies should be tailored towards the development of technological based services while in the long run, government should create schemes for citizens in diaspora to participate in, to endear sector-specific economic activities as well as targeting FDI and AID as policy options to spur growth. Finally, specific capital inflow policy options should be employed as not all forms of capital inflow precipitates growth.

  19. An Approach of Estimating Individual Growth Curves for Young Thoroughbred Horses Based on Their Birthdays

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT We propose an approach of estimating individual growth curves based on the birthday information of Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. The compensatory growth patterns appear during only the winter and spring seasons in the life of growing horses, and the meeting point between winter and spring depends on the birthday of each horse. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Based on the equations, a parameter denoting the birthday information was added for the modeling of the individual growth curves for each horse by shifting the meeting points in the compensatory growth periods. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of Thoroughbred colts and fillies, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements of both sexes were used in the analyses. The results of predicted error difference and Akaike Information Criterion showed that the individual growth curves using birthday information better fit to the body weight and withers height data than not using them. The individual growth curve for each horse would be a useful tool for the feeding managements of young Japanese Thoroughbreds in compensatory growth periods. PMID:25013356

  20. Growth Estimators and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Negative Binomial Random Variables with Unknown Dispersion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shilane

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.

  1. A novel weighted scoring system for estimating the risk of rapid growth in untreated intracranial meningiomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun Jung; Kim, Jeong Hoon; Park, Eun Suk; Kim, Young-Hoon; Lee, Jae Koo; Hong, Seok Ho; Cho, Young Hyun; Kim, Chang Jin

    2017-11-01

    OBJECTIVE Advances in neuroimaging techniques have led to the increased detection of asymptomatic intracranial meningiomas (IMs). Despite several studies on the natural history of IMs, a comprehensive evaluation method for estimating the growth potential of these tumors, based on the relative weight of each risk factor, has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a weighted scoring system that estimates the risk of rapid tumor growth to aid treatment decision making. METHODS The authors performed a retrospective analysis of 232 patients with presumed IM who had been prospectively followed up in the absence of treatment from 1997 to 2013. Tumor volume was measured by imaging at each follow-up visit, and the growth rate was determined by regression analysis. Predictors of rapid tumor growth (defined as ≥ 2 cm 3 /year) were identified using a logistic regression model; each factor was awarded a score based on its own coefficient value. The probability (P) of rapid tumor growth was estimated using the following formula:[Formula: see text] RESULTS Fifty-nine tumors (25.4%) showed rapid growth. Tumor size (OR per cm 3 1.07, p = 0.000), absence of calcification (OR 3.87, p = 0.004), peritumoral edema (OR 2.74, p = 0.025), and hyperintense or isointense signal on T2-weighted MRI (OR 3.76, p = 0.049) were predictors of tumor growth rate. In the Asan Intracranial Meningioma Scoring System (AIMSS), tumor size was categorized into 3 groups of operating characteristic curve was 0.86. CONCLUSIONS The authors suggest a weighted scoring system (AIMSS) that predicts the specific probability of rapid tumor growth for patients with untreated IM. This scoring system will aid treatment decision making in clinical settings by screening out patients at high risk for rapid tumor growth.

  2. Estimating urban trees and carbon stock potentials for mitigating climate change in Lagos: Case of Ikeja Government Reserved Area (GRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, P. O.; Faderin, A.

    2014-12-01

    Urban trees are a component of the urban infrastructure which offers diverse services including environmental, aesthetic and economic. The accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere resulting from the indiscriminate distribution of human populations and urban activities with the unsustainable consumption of natural resources contributes to global environmental change especially in coastal cities like Lagos. Carbon stocks and sequestration by urban trees are increasingly recognized to play significant roles for mitigating climate change. This paper focuses on the estimation of carbon stock and sequestration through biomass estimation and quantification in Ikeja GRA, Lagos. Ikeja possesses a characteristic feature as a microcosm of Lagos due to the wide range of land uses. A canopy assessment of tree population was carried out using itree canopy software. A GPS survey was used to collect an inventory of all trees showing their location, spatial distribution and other attributes. The analysis of the carbon storage and sequestration potential of both actual and potential tree planting sites involved biomass estimations from tree allometry equations. Trees were identified at species level and measurements of their dendrometric values were recorded and integrated into the GIS database to estimate biomass of trees and carbon storage. The trees in the study area were estimated to have a biomass of 441.9 mg and carbon storage of 221.395 kg/tree. By considering the potential tree planting sites the estimated carbon stored increased to 11,352.73 kg. Carbon sequestration value in the study area was found to be 1.6790 tonnes for the existing trees and 40.707 tonnes for the potential tree planting sites (PTPS). The estimation of carbon storage and sequestration values of trees are important incentives for carbon accounting/footprints and monitoring of climate change mitigation which has implications for evaluation and monitoring of urban ecosystem.

  3. Land-use dynamics influence estimates of carbon sequestration potential in tropical second-growth forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Naomi B.; Uriarte, María; DeFries, Ruth; Gutierrez-Velez, Victor H.; Pinedo-Vasquez, Miguel A.

    2017-07-01

    Many countries have made major commitments to carbon sequestration through reforestation under the Paris Climate Agreement, and recent studies have illustrated the potential for large amounts of carbon sequestration in tropical second-growth forests. However, carbon gains in second-growth forests are threatened by non-permanence, i.e. release of carbon into the atmosphere from clearing or disturbance. The benefits of second-growth forests require long-term persistence on the landscape, but estimates of carbon potential rarely consider the spatio-temporal landscape dynamics of second-growth forests. In this study, we used remotely sensed imagery from a landscape in the Peruvian Amazon to examine patterns of second-growth forest regrowth and permanence over 28 years (1985-2013). By 2013, 44% of all forest cover in the study area was second growth and more than 50% of second-growth forest pixels were less than 5 years old. We modeled probabilities of forest regrowth and clearing as a function of landscape factors. The amount of neighboring forest and variables related to pixel position (i.e. distance to edge) were important for predicting both clearing and regrowth. Forest age was the strongest predictor of clearing probability and suggests a threshold response of clearing probability to age. Finally, we simulated future trajectories of carbon sequestration using the parameters from our models. We compared this with the amount of biomass that would accumulate under the assumption of second-growth permanence. Estimates differed by 900 000 tonnes, equivalent to over 80% of Peru’s commitment to carbon sequestration through ‘community reforestation’ under the Paris Agreement. Though the study area has more than 40 000 hectares of second-growth forest, only a small proportion is likely to accumulate significant carbon. Instead, cycles between forest and non-forest are common. Our results illustrate the importance of considering landscape dynamics when assessing

  4. Sources of variability of estimates of malaria case counts, active and reserve components, U.S. Armed Forces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Each January, the Medical Surveillance Monthly Report (MSMR) estimates numbers of malaria infections among U.S. service members using a surveillance case definition to identify "malaria cases". These cases include individuals with a hospital discharge diagnosis of malaria and those who were reported with malaria through military notifiable event reporting systems. This report compares the MSMR surveillance case definition with other proposed case definitions to demonstrate the degree to which estimates of numbers of malaria cases are dependent upon clinical settings, data sources and case-defining rules used to produce such estimates. For example, including outpatient diagnoses as malaria cases would more than double the 2010 case count. As compared with cases defined using other proposed case definitions, many more MSMR-defined cases had records of a specific Plasmodium species, a laboratory test for malaria and recent travel to a malaria-endemic country. Interpretations of the results of MSMR reports should consider how "cases" are defined.

  5. The estimation of growth dynamics for Pomacea maculata from hatchling to adult

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Karyn L.; Zhao, Lihong; Carter, Jacoby

    2017-01-01

    Pomacea maculata is a relatively new invasive species to the Gulf Coast region and potentially threatens local agriculture (rice) and ecosystems (aquatic vegetation). The population dynamics of P. maculata have largely been unquantified, and therefore, scientists and field-workers are ill-equipped to accurately project population sizes and the resulting impact of this species. We studied the growth of P. maculata ranging in weights from 6 to 105 g, identifying the sex of the animals when possible. Our studied population had a 4:9 male:female sex ratio. We present the findings from initial analysis of the individual growth data of males and females, from which it was apparent that females were generally larger than males and that small snails grew faster than larger snails. Since efforts to characterize the male and female growth rates from individual data do not yield statistically supported estimates, we present the estimation of several parameterized growth rate functions within a population-level mathematical model. We provide a comparison of the results using these various growth functions and discuss which best characterizes the dynamics of our observed population. We conclude that both males and females exhibit biphasic growth rates, and thus, their growth is size-dependent. Further, our results suggest that there are notable differences between males and females that are important to take into consideration in order to accurately model this species' population dynamics. Lastly, we include preliminary analyses of ongoing experiments to provide initial estimates of growth in the earliest life stages (hatchling to ≈6 g).

  6. On valuing patches: estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamie S. Sanderlin; Peter M. Waser; James E. Hines; James D. Nichols

    2012-01-01

    Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture­recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution...

  7. A Study of Estimating Winter Wheat Yields by Using Satellite Data Assimilation with Crop Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwata, K.

    2013-12-01

    Accurate information of crop yield is important for production planning in agriculture. Crop growth model is a effective tool to comprehend crop growth situation. Accordingly, we use the MOSIS data for two types of utilization to provide necessary information for DSSAT. The objective of this study is developing a method of estimating winter wheat yield without adequate information of the field. The first use is estimation of solar radiation, which is required as input data into DSSAT. Since MODIS is observing the earth everyday, solar radiation can be estimated in a region where a climate observation system is not developed. The second use is data assimilation that provides appropriate parameter of cultivation management to DSSAT. MODIS LAI and Dry Matter Production (DMP) estimated from MODIS GPP are assimilated into DSSAT. Before developing data assimilation, we have accomplished sensitivity analysis of DSSAT. As the result of the analysis, we found that planting date and amount of applied fertilizer have correlated strongly with LAI and Dry Matter (DM) for specific growth period. Based on the result, we estimated winter wheat yield by assimilating MODIS LAI and DMP observed during the specific period. In contrast, previous study estimated crop yield by assimilating satellite data observed for the whole growth period. Three different assimilation schemes were tested to verify the accuracy of our method. Our results showed that the estimated winter wheat yield agreed very well with the Japanese agricultural experiment station data. Among different assimilating scenarios, the best result was obtained when MODIS LAI and DMP observed for specific growth period; the Root Square Mean Error (RMSE) was 406.52 kg ha2. The distribution map of full year incident PAR in Asia. Estimated Winter Wheat Yield in Japan In the case 1, detail information gathered by experiment reports.In the case 2, all management parameters are determined by reference to cultivation manuals.In the

  8. Estimating and decomposing productivity growth of the electricity generation industry in Malaysia: A stochastic frontier analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See, Kok Fong; Coelli, Tim

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of the Malaysian electricity generation industry over the 1998 to 2005 period. The stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach is used to measure TFP change and decompose TFP growth into efficiency change and technical progress. We find that it achieved average annual TFP growth of 2.34%, with technical change contributing the most to the TFP growth over the eight year period. We hence hypothesise that the new power plants with their newer capital-embodied technologies commencing during the sample period are likely to be the main reason for this strong technical change. In addition, it is also noted that this estimate for the Malaysian electricity generation industry is larger than the estimate obtained for the electricity sector as a whole, where we obtain 1.34% per year for a comparable period. -- Highlights: •This is the first empirical study that examines the TFP growth of the Malaysian electricity generation industry using the SFA method. •An average annual TFP change of the Malaysian electricity generation industry over eight years (1998-2005) has been achieved at 2.34% per year. •The technical progress contributing the most to the TFP growth and technical efficiency change and scale change making small contributions over the sample period

  9. Blockmodeling and the Estimation of Evolutionary Architectural Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    uncertainty is high and confidence is low Focused Question: Can parametric cost estimation, in conjunction with DoD Architecture Framework (DoDAF...qÜáêíÉÉåíÜ=^ååì~ä= ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ= póãéçëáìã= qÜìêëÇ~ó=pÉëëáçåë= sçäìãÉ=ff= = Blockmodeling and the Estimation of Evolutionary Architectural Growth in...Estimation of Evolutionary Architectural Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs LTC Matthew Dabkowski, U.S. Army, University of Arizona Ricardo

  10. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  11. Age, size and regeneration of old growth white pine at Dividing Lake Nature Reserve, Algonquin Park, Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard P. Guyette; Daniel C. Dey

    1995-01-01

    The age, mode of regeneration and diameter growth of white pine were determined in an old growth stand near Dividing Lake, Algonquin Provincial Park. The white pine ranged in age from 267 to 486 years. There was no significant relationship between white pine age and diameter (DBH). The distribution of tree ages indicated that the white pine component in this mixed...

  12. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  13. Aviation Demand and Economic Growth in the Czech Republic: Cointegration Estimation and Causality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bilal Mehmood

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to empirically examine the aviation-led growth hypothesis for the Czech Republic by testing causality between aviation and economic growth. We resort to econometric tests such as unit root tests and test of cointegration purposed by Johansen (1988. Fully Modified OLS, Dynamic OLS and Conical Cointegration Regression are used to estimate the cointegration equation for time span of 42 years from 1970 to 2012. Empirical results reveal the existence of cointegration between aviation demand and economic growth. Graphic methods such as Cholesky impulse response function (both accumulated and non-accumulated and variance decomposition have also been applied to render the analysis rigorous. The positive contribution of aviation demand to economic growth is similar in all three estimation techniques of cointegration equation. Finally, Granger causality test is also applied to find the direction of causal relationship. Findings help in lime-lighting the importance of aviation industry in economic growth for a developing country like the Czech Republic.

  14. A New Extant Respirometric Assay to Estimate Intrinsic Growth Parameters Applied to Study Plasmid Metabolic Burden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seoane, Jose Miguel; Sin, Gürkan; Lardon, Laurent

    2010-01-01

    burden caused by the carriage of a pWW0 TOL plasmid in the model organism Pseudomonas putida KT2440; The metabolic,burden associated was manifested as a reduction in the yield and the specific growth rate of the host, with both plasmid maintenance and the over-expression of recombinant proteins from...... mathematical treatment, or wake-up pulses prior to the analysis.. Identifiability and sensitivity analysis were performed to confirm the robustness of the new approach for obtaining unique and accurate estimates of growth kinetic parameters. The new experimental design was applied to establish the. metabolic...

  15. An Analysis of the Technological Structure of Refineries and Blenders: Estimation of the Leontief Multiproduct Cost Function and Reservation Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Domínguez

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Leontief multiproduct flexible cost function aims to give an approach to the technology used by refineries and blenders. In general, this cost function satisfies rational behavior restrictions imposed by economic theory. The estimated marginal costs are incorporated in a monopolistic competition model to calculate the virtual prices of other products provided by refineries and blenders in the hypothetical situation in which reformulated gasoline is absent in fuel markets. I have found that conventional gasoline and other product prices are greater than those in the mentioned hypothetical case. This result reflects the fact that consumers are being charged with high prices in order to have available a fuel which satisfies the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA regulations. Finally, when all the products become perfect substitutes, i.e. consumers are not interested in the quality of fuels, price differences tend to be negligibly small.

  16. An adaptive ARX model to estimate the RUL of aluminum plates based on its crack growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barraza-Barraza, Diana; Tercero-Gómez, Víctor G.; Beruvides, Mario G.; Limón-Robles, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    A wide variety of Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) techniques deal with the problem of predicting the time for an asset fault. Most statistical approaches rely on historical failure data that might not be available in several practical situations. To address this issue, practitioners might require the use of self-starting approaches that consider only the available knowledge about the current degradation process and the asset operating context to update the prognostic model. Some authors use Autoregressive (AR) models for this purpose that are adequate when the asset operating context is constant, however, if it is variable, the accuracy of the models can be affected. In this paper, three autoregressive models with exogenous variables (ARX) were constructed, and their capability to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of a process was evaluated following the case of the aluminum crack growth problem. An existing stochastic model of aluminum crack growth was implemented and used to assess RUL estimation performance of the proposed ARX models through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Point and interval estimations were made based only on individual history, behavior, operating conditions and failure thresholds. Both analytic and bootstrapping techniques were used in the estimation process. Finally, by including recursive parameter estimation and a forgetting factor, the ARX methodology adapts to changing operating conditions and maintain the focus on the current degradation level of an asset.

  17. Differential estimates of underweight-for-age and growth related morbidity according to different growth standards in Indian children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Archana; Badhoniya, Neetu; Dibley, Michael; Raynes-Greenow, Camille H

    2015-01-01

    To compare the four different growth standards currently used in India [WHO (World Health Organization); NCHS (National Center for Health Statistics); ICDS (Integrated Child Development Scheme); IAP (Indian Academy of Pediatrics)] and determine which better predicts growth related morbidity in children after 3 mo of follow-up. The present cohort study was done at Indira Gandhi Government Medical College and Hospital, Nagpur, India. Eligible children were those who had; > 3 unformed stools in the prior 24 h, the duration of their diarrhea was up to 72 h; and they were able to accept oral fluids or feeds. Main outcome measures were classification of the malnutrition status as per each of the four growth standards by weight-for-age and weight-for-height z scores at three months follow-up. A total of 724 children were included. Mean age was 17.8 mo; 40.6 % were ≤ 12 mo and 59.1 % were males. Estimates of malnourished varied by the four standards, (NCHS, 62.2 % to IAP, 7.4 %). When separated into 'malnourished' and 'severely malnourished' categories, differences were greater, (NCHS, 27.9 % vs. ICDS, 1.9 %). Overall agreement was 'fair' (0.2435, z = 22.21, p = 0.0000). After follow-up, children who were 'severely malnourished' gained more weight than the 'malnourished'group; however, mean weight differed by the four charts [e.g., IAP 767 g (SD ± 611 g), vs. ICDS 884.7 g (SD ± 778 g)]. Growth standards reported different rates of malnourished categories. The utility of the standards to detect children who are constitutionally vs. pathologically small is questionable. Monitoring the nutritional status of children at both the individual level and at population level has implications for clinical practice, policy development and resource allocation.

  18. SERIAL ULTRASOUND TO ESTIMATE FETAL GROWTH CURVES IN SOUTHERN TAMANDUA (TAMANDUA TETRADACTYLA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Rachel; Wolf, Tiffany M; Robertson, Heather; Colburn, Margarita Woc; Moreno, Alexis; Moresco, Anneke; Napier, Anne Elise; Nofs, Sally A

    2017-06-01

    From 2012 to 2015, 16 pregnancies were monitored by ultrasonography in nine tamanduas ( Tamandua tetradactyla ) housed in three zoological facilities. Sonographic measurements were recorded to establish fetal growth curves using thoracic and skull landmarks described for giant anteaters ( Myrmecophaga tridactyla ). All pregnancies resulted in the uncomplicated delivery of healthy offspring, thus gestational development was considered normal. These data may be used as a reference for normal fetal development with potential for estimating parturition date in the absence of breeding data.

  19. Estimating the Parameters of Software Reliability Growth Models Using the Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Alaa F. Sheta; Amal Abdel-Raouf

    2016-01-01

    In this age of technology, building quality software is essential to competing in the business market. One of the major principles required for any quality and business software product for value fulfillment is reliability. Estimating software reliability early during the software development life cycle saves time and money as it prevents spending larger sums fixing a defective software product after deployment. The Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) can be used to predict the number of...

  20. Plot size recommendations for biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; George R Parker

    1998-01-01

    The authors examine the relationship between disturbance regime and plot size for woody biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth deciduous forest from 1926 to 1992. Analysis was done on the core 19.6 ac of a 50.1 ac forest in which every tree 4 in. d.b.h. and greater has been tagged and mapped since 1926. Five windows of time are compared—1926, 1976, 1981, 1986...

  1. An inverse geometry problem in estimating frost growth on an evaporating tube

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, C.H. [Department of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering, National Cheng Kung University Tainan, Taiwan (Taiwan)

    2002-08-01

    When humid air comes into contact with a surface whose temperature is below the dew point of water vapor in air and also below the freezing point, frost deposition takes place over the surface. The phenomena of the frost growth are very complicated and therefore it is very difficult to model mathematically the behavior of frost growth and predict it. In the present study a transient inverse geometry heat conduction problem (shape identification problem) is solved using the conjugate gradient method (CGM) and boundary element method (BEM)-based inverse algorithm to estimate the unknown irregular frost thickness and shape. Results obtained by using the CGM to estimate the frost growth are justified based on the numerical experiments. It is concluded that the accurate frost shape can be estimated by the CGM except for the initial and final time. The reason and improvement of this singularity are addressed. Finally the effects of reducing the number of sensors and increasing the measurement errors on the inverse solutions are discussed. (orig.)

  2. Revisiting the constant growth angle: Estimation and verification via rigorous thermal modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virozub, Alexander; Rasin, Igal G.; Brandon, Simon

    2008-12-01

    Methods for estimating growth angle ( θgr) values, based on the a posteriori analysis of directionally solidified material (e.g. drops) often involve assumptions of negligible gravitational effects as well as a planar solid/liquid interface during solidification. We relax both of these assumptions when using experimental drop shapes from the literature to estimate the relevant growth angles at the initial stages of solidification. Assumed to be constant, we use these values as input into a rigorous heat transfer and solidification model of the growth process. This model, which is shown to reproduce the experimental shape of a solidified sessile water drop using the literature value of θgr=0∘, yields excellent agreement with experimental profiles using our estimated values for silicon ( θgr=10∘) and germanium ( θgr=14.3∘) solidifying on an isotropic crystalline surface. The effect of gravity on the solidified drop shape is found to be significant in the case of germanium, suggesting that gravity should either be included in the analysis or that care should be taken that the relevant Bond number is truly small enough in each measurement. The planar solidification interface assumption is found to be unjustified. Although this issue is important when simulating the inflection point in the profile of the solidified water drop, there are indications that solidified drop shapes (at least in the case of silicon) may be fairly insensitive to the shape of this interface.

  3. Estimating growth status of winter wheat based on aerial images and hyperspectral data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yunxia; Li, Minzan; Jia, Liangliang; Zhang, Xijie; Zhang, Fusuo

    2005-08-01

    The aim of this paper is to estimate the growth status and yield of winter wheat using aerial images and hyperspectral data obtained by unmanned aircraft, and then to perform precision management to the crop. The test farm was divided into 48 cells. Twenty-four cells were selected as variable rate fertilization area, and the other 24 cells were used as contrast area with low fertilization in growth season. In 2004, the aerial images of winter wheat canopy were measured from an unmanned aircraft. The SPAD value of crop leaf was acquired using a SPAD-502 chlorophyll meter, and then the hyperspectral reflectance of the crop canopy was measured by a handheld spectroradiometer. The vegetation indices, NDVI and DVI, were calculated from the hyperspectral data. The characteristics of the aerial images were used to evaluate the growth status. The RGB values of all cells were calculated from aerial images. The result showed that total nitrogen had better correlation with SPAD, NDVI, DVI, and RGB. NDVI and DVI had high correlation with the growth condition, and R/(R+G+B) and G/(R+G+B) had good correlation with the growth status and yield. The variable rate fertilization based on aerial images and NDVI was executed in the experimental cells. The yield map showed that the spatial variation of the yield was reduced and the total yield was increased. While in contrast cells, the spatial variation of the yield is greater than in experimental cells because of the spatial variation of the field nutrition. Therefore, it is practical to use aerial images and hyperspectral data of the crop canopy in estimation of the crop growth status.

  4. Linking functional response and bioenergetics to estimate juvenile salmon growth in a reservoir food web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskell, Craig A.; Beauchamp, David A.; Bollens, Stephen M.

    2017-01-01

    Juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) use of reservoir food webs is understudied. We examined the feeding behavior of subyearling Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and its relation to growth by estimating the functional response of juvenile salmon to changes in the density of Daphnia, an important component of reservoir food webs. We then estimated salmon growth across a broad range of water temperatures and daily rations of two primary prey, Daphnia and juvenile American shad (Alosa sapidissima) using a bioenergetics model. Laboratory feeding experiments yielded a Type-II functional response curve: C = 29.858 P *(4.271 + P)-1 indicating that salmon consumption (C) of Daphnia was not affected until Daphnia densities (P) were < 30 · L-1. Past field studies documented Daphnia densities in lower Columbia River reservoirs of < 3 · L-1 in July but as high as 40 · L-1 in August. Bioenergetics modeling indicated that subyearlings could not achieve positive growth above 22°C regardless of prey type or consumption rate. When feeding on Daphnia, subyearlings could not achieve positive growth above 20°C (water temperatures they commonly encounter in the lower Columbia River during summer). At 16–18°C, subyearlings had to consume about 27,000 Daphnia · day-1 to achieve positive growth. However, when feeding on juvenile American shad, subyearlings had to consume 20 shad · day-1 at 16–18°C, or at least 25 shad · day-1 at 20°C to achieve positive growth. Using empirical consumption rates and water temperatures from summer 2013, subyearlings exhibited negative growth during July (-0.23 to -0.29 g · d-1) and August (-0.05 to -0.07 g · d-1). By switching prey from Daphnia to juvenile shad which have a higher energy density, subyearlings can partially compensate for the effects of higher water temperatures they experience in the lower Columbia River during summer. However, achieving positive growth as piscivores requires subyearlings to feed at

  5. The Growth Points of Regional Economy and Regression Estimation for Branch Investment Multipliers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Pavlovna Goridko

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops the methodology of using investment multipliers to identify growth points for a regional economy. The paper discusses various options for the assessment of multiplicative effects caused by investments in certain sectors of the economy. All calculations are carried out on the example of economy of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period 2005–2015. The instrument of regression modeling using the method of least squares, permits to estimate sectoral and cross-sectoral investment multipliers in the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. Moreover, this method allows to assess the elasticity of gross output of regional economy and its individual sectors depending on investment in various sectors of the economy. Calculations results allowed to identify three growth points of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. They are mining industry, manufacturing industry and construction. The success of a particular industry or sub-industry in a country or a region should be measured not only by its share in macro-system’s gross output or value added, but also by the multiplicative effect that investments in the industry have on the development of other industries, on employment and on general national or regional product. In recent years, the growth of the Russian was close to zero. Thus, it is crucial to understand the structural consequences of the increasing investments in various sectors of the Russian economy. In this regard, the problems solved in the article are relevant for a number of countries and regions with a similar economic situation. The obtained results can be applied for similar estimations of investment multipliers as well as multipliers of government spending, and other components of aggregate demand in various countries and regions to identify growth points. Investments in these growth points will induce the greatest and the most evident increment of the outcome from the macro-system’s economic activities.

  6. The spatial distribution of the lignite qualitative parameters and variant estimates of coal reserves: the Czech Part of the Vienna Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jelínek, Jan; Staněk, František; Vebr, Lukáš; Honěk, Josef

    2014-06-01

    The aim of this article is to inform about the spatial distribution of the lignite qualitative parameters and total lignite reserves in the Czech Part of the Vienna Basin—The South Moravian Lignite Coalfield (SMLC). The total reserves were estimated on the basis of several composed variant digital models of individual seams in four partial area of SMLC. Calculations of the reserves resulted from the identified spatial distribution of chemical-technological parameters obtained from the thousands analysis of samples taken from more than 4,000 exploration works. The basic model of the deposit was so-called geological model characterising genetic evolution of the deposit and defines the spatial positions of the coal seams. Subsequently developed variant economical models spatially define the selected areas by the quality of lignite expressed by the limits of ash yield. Based on the created models, it was found that in the past just 3-7 % (depending on the variant model) of the total lignite reserves SMLC had been extracted. The presented geological reserves are currently using the existing mining technologies only partially mineable.

  7. Estimating the Relationship between Economic Growth and Health Expenditures in ECO Countries Using Panel Cointegration Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatam, Nahid; Tourani, Sogand; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah; Bastani, Peivand

    2016-02-01

    Increasing knowledge of people about health leads to raising the share of health expenditures in government budget continuously; although governors do not like this rise because of budget limitations. This study aimed to find the association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. We added health capital in Solow model and used the panel cointegration approach to show the importance of health expenditures in economic growth. For estimating the model, first we used Pesaran cross-sectional dependency test, after that we used Pesaran CADF unit root test, and then we used Westerlund panel cointegration test to show if there is a long-term association between variables or not. After that, we used chaw test, Breusch-Pagan test and Hausman test to find the form of the model. Finally, we used OLS estimator for panel data. Findings showed that there is a positive, strong association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. If governments increase investing in health, the total production of the country will be increased, so health expenditures are considered as an investing good. The effects of health expenditures in developing countries must be higher than those in developed countries. Such studies can help policy makers to make long-term decisions.

  8. Comparison of Two Mechanistic Microbial Growth Models to Estimate Shelf Life of Perishable Food Package under Dynamic Temperature Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Sun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Two mechanistic microbial growth models (Huang’s model and model of Baranyi and Roberts given in differential and integrated equation forms were compared in predicting the microbial growth and shelf life under dynamic temperature storage and distribution conditions. Literatures consistently reporting the microbial growth data under constant and changing temperature conditions were selected to obtain the primary model parameters, set up the secondary models, and apply them to predict the microbial growth and shelf life under fluctuating temperatures. When evaluated by general estimation behavior, bias factor, accuracy factor, and root-mean-square error, Huang’s model was comparable to Baranyi and Roberts’ model in the capability to estimate microbial growth under dynamic temperature conditions. Its simple form of single differential equation incorporating directly the growth rate and lag time may work as an advantage to be used in online shelf life estimation by using the electronic device.

  9. Time‐course of Tomato Whole‐plant Respiration and Fruit and Stem Growth During Prolonged Darkness in Relation to Carbohydrate Reserves

    OpenAIRE

    GARY, C.; BALDET, P.; BERTIN, N.; DEVAUX, C.; TCHAMITCHIAN, M.; RAYMOND, P.

    2003-01-01

    To evaluate the relevance of a simple carbon balance model (Seginer et al., 1994, Scientia Horticulturae 60: 55–80) in source‐limiting conditions, the dynamics of growth, respiration and carbohydrate reserves of tomato plants were observed in prolonged darkness. Four days prior to the experiments, plants were exposed to high or low light levels and CO2 concentrations. The concentration of carbohydrates in vegetative organs was 30–50 % lower in plants that were exposed to low carbon assimil...

  10. Targeted technology applications for infield reserve growth: A synopsis of the Secondary Natural Gas Recovery project, Gulf Coast Basin. Topical report, September 1988--April 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levey, R.A.; Finley, R.J.; Hardage, B.A.

    1994-06-01

    The Secondary Natural Gas Recovery (SGR): Targeted Technology Applications for Infield Reserve Growth is a joint venture research project sponsored by the Gas Research Institute (GRI), the US Department of Energy (DOE), the State of Texas through the Bureau of Economic Geology at The University of Texas at Austin, with the cofunding and cooperation of the natural gas industry. The SGR project is a field-based program using an integrated multidisciplinary approach that integrates geology, geophysics, engineering, and petrophysics. A major objective of this research project is to develop, test, and verify those technologies and methodologies that have near- to mid-term potential for maximizing recovery of gas from conventional reservoirs in known fields. Natural gas reservoirs in the Gulf Coast Basin are targeted as data-rich, field-based models for evaluating infield development. The SGR research program focuses on sandstone-dominated reservoirs in fluvial-deltaic plays within the onshore Gulf Coast Basin of Texas. The primary project research objectives are: To establish how depositional and diagenetic heterogeneities cause, even in reservoirs of conventional permeability, reservoir compartmentalization and hence incomplete recovery of natural gas. To document examples of reserve growth occurrence and potential from fluvial and deltaic sandstones of the Texas Gulf Coast Basin as a natural laboratory for developing concepts and testing applications. To demonstrate how the integration of geology, reservoir engineering, geophysics, and well log analysis/petrophysics leads to strategic recompletion and well placement opportunities for reserve growth in mature fields.

  11. Azimuthal instability of a cylindrical radiative Z-pinch; estimate of the corresponding growth rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imshennik, V.S.; Neudachin, V.V.

    1987-01-01

    It is clear from both the theoretical and experimental standpoints that azimuthal variations can arise in the later stages of the existence of a Z-pinch (or plasma focus). The physical mechanism for this process is the onset of a radiative instability, driven by the volume loss due to the radiation of heavy impurities in the plasma column. A physical formulation of a problem describing the evolution of an azimuthal instability of a cylindrical radiative Z-pinch is proposed. In particular, a linearized system of MHD equations for an arbitrary azimuthal mode m is formulated. The problem reduces to the familiar thermal instability in the important case of short-wave perturbations, with wave vector directed along the magnetic field lines (and under certain other restrictions). The growth rate of the radiative instability is derived in this approximation. This growth rate is then estimated for the conditions corresponding to a plasma focus. For a deuterium density n 0 ∼10 20 cm -3 , at a temperature T 0 ∼1 keV, and with a concentration X 0 ∼0.01--0.1 of a heavy impurity (such as Xe) this growth rate is extremely close the reciprocal of the Alfven time of the plasma focus. The role played by the electron thermal conductivity in this instability is evaluated

  12. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trnka, Miroslav; Eitzinger, Josef; Kapler, Pavel; Dubrovský, Martin; Semerádová, Daniela; Žalud, Zdeněk; Formayer, Herbert

    2007-10-16

    The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (R G ) values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe R G error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i) at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily R G values were available as a reference, withseven methods for R G estimation being tested, and ii) for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five R G estimation methods. In thelatter case the R G values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured R G data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in R G estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate R G , for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen R G estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent). The methods for estimating R G from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the R G data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We found that R G estimates based on

  13. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herbert Formayer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

  14. Genetic parameter estimation for pre-weaning growth traits in Jordan Awassi sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khaleel Jawasreh

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aim of this study was to estimate the heritability, genetic and phenotypic correlations, and the genetic trends for pre-weaning growth traits including the birth weight (BWT, weaning weight (WWT, pre-weaning daily gain (PWDG, and weaning age (WA in Awassi lambs. Materials and Methods: A total of 5131 Awassi lambs from two Jordanian sheep breeding stations were used. A multitrait animal model and restricted maximum likelihood methods were used to estimate the covariances between the studied traits. Results: The mean±standard deviation of BWT, WWT, PWDG, and WA was 4.48±0.8 kg, 17.13±0.7 kg, 0.2±0.07 g, and 65.5±0.7 days, respectively. Heritability estimates were 0.30±0.04 for BWT, 0.19±0.04 for WWT and PWDG, and 0.2±0.04 for WA. Positive genetic correlations were obtained between BWT and other traits, while negative correlations were obtained between WWT, PWDG, and WA (-0.50±0.12 and between WWT and WA (-0.67±0.14. The positive phenotypic correlation was obtained between WA and PWDG (0.63±0.01. The highest additive genetic variance was obtained for WA (34.58, while the lowest was estimated for PWDG (6.22E-04. The highest phenotypic variance was obtained for WA (175.5, while the lowest value obtained was for BWT (0.54. Maternal additive variance ranged between 0.13 and 0.03. The genetic trends were around zero for all studied traits. Conclusion: Selection should be conducted using animals with high estimated breeding values through controlled breeding.

  15. [Using diagnostic software module for monitoring the functional reserves of the organism for the estimation of the efficacy of health-improving and rehabilitative programs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iakovlev, M Iu; Bobrovnitskiĭ, I P; Lebedeva, O D

    2012-01-01

    The social implications of the estimation of health reserves and their monitoring becomes increasingly important for early diagnostics of dysfunctional problems associated with the social and occupational activities as well as for the prevention of the development of pathological processes. Taking this fact into consideration, we have designed a diagnostic technology called "health reserves" for the identification of subjects with risk factors of the development of the most widespread diseases that enables the users to perform qualitative assessment of the risks, evaluate functional reserves of the organism, and prognosticate the efficacy of application of non-medicamental technologies for the improvement of the patients' health status. We studied 79 patients aged from 18 to 73 years including 33 (42.8%) men and 44 (57.2%) women at their admittance to the clinic and within 2-3 days after discharge. The patients were treated using non-medicamental rehabilitative techniques, such as remedial gymnastics, massage, iodine-bromine baths. The results of the treatment were subjected to the mathematical analysis. The study permitted to determine predictors of efficacy of the non-medicamental treatment and individualized rehabilitation programs.

  16. Estimating root collar diameter growth for multi-stem western woodland tree species on remeasured forest inventory and analysis plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael T. Thompson; Maggie. Toone

    2012-01-01

    Tree diameter growth models are widely used in many forestry applications, often to predict tree size at a future point in time. Also, there are instances where projections of past diameters are needed. An individual tree model has been developed to estimate diameter growth of multi-stem woodland tree species where the diameter is measured at root collar. The model was...

  17. Variable estimates of serum growth hormone concentrations by different radioassay systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reiter, E.O.; Morris, A.H.; MacGillivray, M.H.; Weber, D.

    1988-01-01

    Many different assays are being used to measure serum GH concentrations in children with disorders of growth. We assessed four readily available methods to determine the comparability of the immunopotency estimates: standard double antibody RIA with pituitary standards from the National Hormone and Pituitary Program (assay 1) and from a commercial source (assay 2), a double antibody RIA with serum standards (assay 4), and a commercial immunoradiometric assay (assay 3). There was a high degree of relative correlation between assays (r = 0.95-0.98), but absolute potency estimates differed. Assays 1 and 2 were almost identical. Assay 3 yielded serum GH levels about 65% those of assay 1 or 2 and 80% those of assay 4. Assay 4 gave intermediate values between the low readings in assay 3 and higher values in assay 1 and 2. We conclude that substantial variation occurs in potency estimates in different GH assays. Such differences can affect the interpretation of many GH provocative and sampling studies

  18. Estimation of Genetic Parameters of Kleiber Ratio and Growth Traits in Kurdish Sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davoud Ali Saghi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Kurdish sheep breed is one of the most important native breeds of Iran. They are fat-tailed, large-sized, well adapted to the mountainous regions in northern Khorasan province and mainly raising for meat production under pastoral production system (28. Feed efficiency is a major component in the profitability of the small ruminant enterprise, because quality of range and pasture is low in poor environmental conditions in Iran. Growth rate and feed efficiency are two traits of great economic importance in sheep production and also Kleiber ratio has been suggested to be a useful indicator for these traits (2. There was no information regarding genetic parameters for growth traits in Kurdish sheep. Thus, the main objective of the present research was to estimate (covariance components and genetic parameters for pre- and post-weaning growth traits and Kleiber ratio in Kurdish sheep. Material and Methods In this study, the records of growth traits from 5144 lambs (from 161 rams and 1982 ewes were used. The data were collected during a 17-year period (1996–2013 in Kurdish sheep Breeding Station located in Shirvan city of northern Khorasan province. Traits investigated were average daily gain from birth to weaning (ADG0-3, average daily gain from weaning to six months of age (ADG3-6, average daily gain from six to nine months of age (ADG6-9, average daily gain from nine to twelve months of age (ADG9-12 and Kleiber ratios (KR defined as: KR1=ADG0-3/(BW30.75 KR2=ADG3-6/(BW60.75 KR3=ADG6-9/(BW90.75 KR4=ADG9-12/(BW120.75 Test of significance for the fixed effects to be included in the final functional model for each trait and calculation of least squares means was accomplished using GLM procedure of SAS software (24. The considered fixed effects were year of lambing (1996-2013, sex of lamb (male and female, type of birth (single and twin and age of ewe (1–7 years old. (Co variance components and genetic parameters were estimated applying

  19. Restoration of Degraded Soil in the Nanmangalam Reserve Forest with Native Tree Species: Effect of Indigenous Plant Growth-Promoting Bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andimuthu Ramachandran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Restoration of a highly degraded forest, which had lost its natural capacity for regeneration, was attempted in the Nanmangalam Reserve Forest in Eastern Ghats of India. In field experiment, 12 native tree species were planted. The restoration included inoculation with a consortium of 5 native plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB, with the addition of small amounts of compost and a chemical fertilizer (NPK. The experimental fields were maintained for 1080 days. The growth and biomass varied depending on the plant species. All native plants responded well to the supplementation with the native PGPB. The plants such as Pongamia pinnata, Tamarindus indica, Gmelina arborea, Wrightia tinctoria, Syzygium cumini, Albizia lebbeck, Terminalia bellirica, and Azadirachta indica performed well in the native soil. This study demonstrated, by using native trees and PGPB, a possibility to restore the degraded forest.

  20. Long-term effect of carbohydrate reserves on growth and reproduction of Prosopis denudans (Fabaceae): implications for conservation of woody perennials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Alejandra E.; Agüero, Paola R.; Ravetta, Damián; González-Paleo, Luciana

    2016-01-01

    Prosopis denudans, an extreme xerophyte shrub, is consumed by ungulates and threatened by firewood gathering, because it is one of the preferred species used by Mapuche indigenous people of Patagonia. In a scenario of uncontrolled use of vegetation, it is very difficult to develop a conservation plan that jointly protects natural resources and its users. We performed a field experiment to assess the impact of defoliation on growth, reproduction and stores of a wild population of P. denudans. We imposed four levels of defoliation (removal of 100, 66, 33 and 0% of leaves) and evaluated the short- and long-term (3 years) effects of this disturbance. Seasonal changes in shoot carbohydrates suggested that they support leaf-flush and blooming. Severely defoliated individuals also used root reserves to support growth and leaf-flush after clipping. Vegetative growth was not affected by defoliation history. Leaf mass area increased after the initial clipping, suggesting the development of structural defenses. The depletion of root reserves at the end of the first year affected inflorescence production the following spring. We conclude that P. denudans shrubs could lose up to one-third of their green tissues without affecting growth or inflorescence production. The removal of a higher proportion of leaves will diminish stores, which in turn, will reduce or completely prevent blooming and, therefore, fruit production the following seasons. Very few studies integrate conservation and plant physiology, and we are not aware, so far, of any work dealing with long-term plant carbon economy of a long-lived perennial shrub as an applied tool in conservation. These results might help the development of management strategies that consider both the use and the conservation of wild populations of P. denudans. PMID:27293747

  1. Lithium reserves and resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R.K.

    1978-01-01

    As a result of accelerating research efforts in the fields of secondary batteries and thermonuclear power generation, concern has been expressed in certain quarters regarding the availability, in sufficient quantities, of lithium. As part of a recent study by the National Research Council on behalf of the Energy Research and Development Administration, a subpanel was formed to consider the outlook for lithium. Principal areas of concern were reserves, resources and the 'surplus' available for energy applications after allowing for the growth in current lithium applications. Reserves and resources were categorized into four classes ranging from fully proved reserves to resources which are probably dependent upon the marketing of co-products to become economically attractive. Because of the proprietary nature of data on beneficiation and processing recoveries, the tonnages of available lithium are expressed in terms of plant feed. However, highly conservative assumptions have been made concerning mining recoveries and these go a considerable way to accounting for total losses. Western World reserves and resources of all classes are estimated at 10.6 million tonnes Li of which 3.5 million tonnes Li are located in the United States. Current United States capacity, virtually equivalent to Western World capacity, is 4700 tonnes Li and production in 1976 approximated to 3500 tonnes Li. Production for current applications is expected to grow to approx. 10,000 tonnes in year 2000 and 13,000 tonnes a decade later. The massive excess of reserves and resources over that necessary to support conventional requirements has limited the amount of justifiable exploration expenditures; on the last occasion, there was a a major increase in demand (by the USAEA) reserves and capacity were increased rapidly. There are no foreseeable reasons why this shouldn't happen again when the need is clear. (author)

  2. Magnetic Waveform Measurements of the PS Injection Kicker KFA45 and Future Emittance Growth Estimates

    CERN Document Server

    Forte, Vincenzo; Ferrero Colomo, Alvaro; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

    2018-01-01

    In the framework of the LHC Injectors Upgrade (LIU) project [1], this document summarises the beam-based measurement of the magnetic waveform of the PS injection kicker KFA45 [2], from data collected during several Machine Development (MD) sessions in 2016 and 2017. In the first part of the document, the measurement methodology is introduced and the results presented and compared with the specification required for a clean transfer of the bunches coming from the PSB after the upgrade. These measurements represent, to date, the only way to reconstruct the magnetic waveform. In the second part, kicker magnetic waveform PSpice®[3] simulations are compared and tuned to the measurements. Finally the simulated (validated through measurements) waveforms are used to estimate the future expected emittance growth for the different PS injection schemes, both for (LIU target) LHC and fixed target beams.

  3. Estimating the effect of urease inhibitor on rice yield based on NDVI at key growth stages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kailou LIU,Yazhen LI,Huiwen HU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the urease inhibitor, N-(n-butyl thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT at a range of application rates on rice production was examined in a field experiment at Jinxian County, Jiangxi Province, China. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI was measured at key growth stages in both early and late rice. The results showed that the grain yield increased significantly when urea was applied with NBPT, with the highest yield observed at 1.00% NBPT (wt/wt. NDVI differed with the growth stage of rice; it remained steady from the heading to the filling stage. Rice yield could be predicted from the NDVI taken at key rice growing stages, with R2 ranging from 0.34 to 0.69 in early rice and 0.49 to 0.70 in late rice. The validation test showed that RMSE (t·hm-2 values were 0.77 and 0.87 in early and late rice, respectively. Therefore, it was feasible to estimate rice yield for different amounts of urease inhibitor using NDVI.

  4. Estimation of genetic parameters for growth, carcass and overfeeding traits in a white geese strain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guy Gérard

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In an experimental strain of white plumage geese created in 1989, two experiments were carried out from 1993 to 1995 in order to estimate genetic parameters for growth, and carcass composition traits in non-overfed animals, and genetic parameters for growth and fatty liver formation in overfed animals. Four hundred and thirty-one non-overfed animals were bred and slaughtered at 11 weeks of age; they were measured for forearm length, keel bone length, chest circumference and breast depth before and after slaughtering. The carcasses were partly dissected in order weigh breast, breast muscle and skin + fat, and abdominal fat. Four hundred and seventy-seven overfed animals were slaughtered at 20 weeks of age; they were measured for "paletot" (breast meat, bone and meat from wings, bone and meat from thigh and legs weight and liver weight. In these two experiments, the weights had moderate to high heritability values. Breast depth measured on live animals showed a low heritability value. In overfed animals, liver weight showed a high heritability value. Liver weight could be increased by selection without a great effect on "paletot" weight. Thus, obtaining a white plumage geese strain for fatty liver production by selection would be difficult because only 20% of overfed animals had fatty liver. The results did not allow to conclude on the influence of selection on liver weight on carcass traits such as muscle or fatty tissue weight.

  5. Association between Soil Fertility and Growth Performance of Planted Shorea macrophylla (de Vriese after Enrichment Planting at Rehabilitation Sites of Sampadi Forest Reserve, Sarawak, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mugunthan Perumal

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A study was conducted to determine the status of soil properties after enrichment planting in comparison to an adjacent secondary forest and to evaluate the effect of enrichment planting of Shorea macrophylla (de Vriese on the soil fertility status with special reference to Soil Fertility Index (SFI and Soil Evaluation Factor (SEF at Sampadi Forest Reserve, Sarawak. The study sites were stands rehabilitated in different years (1996: SM96; 1997: SM97; 1998: SM98; 1999: SM99 and secondary forest (SF. Findings indicated that the soils at rehabilitation sites and SF were strongly acidic in nature, with pH less than 5.50, poor soil exchangeable bases, and nutrient status. The soils were relatively of sandy clay loam to sandy clay. Principal Component Analysis revealed the three most significant components of the soil properties which explained 76.3% of the total variation. At surface soils, SFI was correlated with tree growth parameters of S. macrophylla, indicating that SFI is an applicable soil quality index as compared to SEF. Notwithstanding, a significant association was found between soil available phosphorus and planted S. macrophylla, indicating that soil phosphorus is a better indicator than SFI. Further studies on other environmental factors influencing tree growth performance, early establishment of experimental reforestation at nursery, and field should be implemented to obtain the initial data on seedling growth performance prior to outplanting.

  6. Estimating vertical plant area density profile and growth parameters of a wheat canopy at different growth stages using three-dimensional portable lidar imaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoi, Fumiki; Omasa, Kenji

    Vertical plant area density profiles of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) canopy at different growth stages (tillering, stem elongation, flowering, and ripening stages) were estimated using high-resolution portable scanning lidar based on the voxel-based canopy profiling method. The canopy was scanned three-dimensionally by laser beams emitted from several measuring points surrounding the canopy. At the ripening stage, the central azimuth angle was inclined about 23 ∘ to the row direction to avoid obstruction of the beam into the lower canopy by the upper part. Plant area density profiles were estimated, with root mean square errors of 0.28-0.79 m 2 m -3 at each growth stage and of 0.45 m 2 m -3 across all growth stages. Plant area index was also estimated, with absolute errors of 4.7%-7.7% at each growth stage and of 6.1% across all growth stages. Based on lidar-derived plant area density, the area of each type of organ (stem, leaves, ears) per unit ground area was related to the actual dry weight of each organ type, and regression equations were obtained. The standard errors of the equations were 4.1 g m -2 for ears and 26.6 g m -2 for stems and leaves. Based on these equations, the estimated total dry weight was from 63.3 to 279.4 g m -2 for ears and from 35.8 to 375.3 g m -2 for stems and leaves across the growth stages. Based on the estimated dry weight at ripening and the ratio of carbon to dry weight in wheat plants, the carbon stocks were 76.3 g C m -2 for grain, 225.0 g C m -2 for aboveground residue, and 301.3 g C m -2 for all aboveground organs.

  7. Estimation of the genetic correlations between twisted legs and growth or conformation traits in broiler chickens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bihan-Duval, E L; Beaumont, C; Colleau, J J

    1997-01-12

    Genetic correlations between two types of leg deformities, valgus and varus angulations, and some growth or conformation traits were estimated in two commercial broiler strains. 14 264 chickens of both sexes in line A were measured for leg defects at 6 weeks and body weight at 3 (BW3) or 6 (BW6) weeks. The same measures were taken in line B on 8 164 chickens, as well as breast angle (BRA) and breast meat yield (BRM) at 6 weeks on 70% of the male birds. The multinomial logit model previously developed for the genetic analysis of valgus and varus deformities was extended to deal with the joint analysis of one unordered categorical trait and one continuous variable. The model assumed a competition between latent susceptibility variates related to the various deformities and linearly dependent on the continuous performances. Location parameters for latent susceptibilities and continuous trait were estimated by the 'Maximum A Posteriori' approach and dispersion parameters by the 'Maximum Marginal Likelihood' using a tilda-hat approximation. The genetic model took into account the effects of the sire, maternal grandsire and dam within maternal grandsire. As described in a previous study, leg deformities showed moderate heritabilities. Mean heritability estimate for both lines, based on the sire/maternal-grandsire (S/MGS) component, was equal to 0.22 for valgus and varus; when based on the dam component, mean estimates were equal to 0.37 and 0.29 for the two deformities respectively. Except for BRA, heritability of growth and conformation traits appeared to be smaller when based on S/MGS component (from 0.18 to 0.47) than on dam component (from 0.41 to 0.63). Very low genetic correlations were found between susceptibilities to leg deformities and growth performances: average estimates for both lines of the genetic correlation with BW3 were -0.03 and -0.05 for valgus and varus respectively. Respective genetic correlations with BW6 were estimated to be +0.05 and +0

  8. Estimating the Uncertainty In Diameter Growth Model Predictions and Its Effects On The Uncertainty of Annual Inventory Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronald E. McRoberts; Veronica C. Lessard

    2001-01-01

    Uncertainty in diameter growth predictions is attributed to three general sources: measurement error or sampling variability in predictor variables, parameter covariances, and residual or unexplained variation around model expectations. Using measurement error and sampling variability distributions obtained from the literature and Monte Carlo simulation methods, the...

  9. Estimation of winter wheat canopy nitrogen density at different growth stages based on Multi-LUT approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhenhai; Li, Na; Li, Zhenhong; Wang, Jianwen; Liu, Chang

    2017-10-01

    Rapid real-time monitoring of wheat nitrogen (N) status is crucial for precision N management during wheat growth. In this study, Multi Lookup Table (Multi-LUT) approach based on the N-PROSAIL model parameters setting at different growth stages was constructed to estimating canopy N density (CND) in winter wheat. The results showed that the estimated CND was in line with with measured CND, with the determination coefficient (R2) and the corresponding root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.80 and 1.16 g m-2, respectively. Time-consuming of one sample estimation was only 6 ms under the test machine with CPU configuration of Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-2430 @2.40GHz quad-core. These results confirmed the potential of using Multi-LUT approach for CND retrieval in winter wheat at different growth stages and under variables climatic conditions.

  10. Social and economic factors of the natural risk growth: estimation of the Russian regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, E.

    2003-04-01

    Òhe vulnerability of the population and economy territorial complexes (PETC) to the influence of unfavorable and dangerous natural processes and events is determined not only by the physical parameters of natural hazards in the given region, but also by economic and social peculiarities of the PETC by itself. It depends on economy type, on PETC’s age, structure and dimensions as well as on degree of its participation in the territorial division of labor. PETC would be more vulnerable to the natural hazards impact if its population density, concentration of the industrial capacities (especially of the objects that additionally create the potential danger of the man-caused catastrophes such as nuclear-power stations, chemical enterprises, oil refineries and so on), concentration of transport and other means of communication, the technological complexity, the originality of the objects included in it as well as the originality of PETC by itself would be higher. The PETC with the unfavorable socio-political and ecological situation and underdeveloped management structures are more vulnerable. The estimation of regions by PETC vulnerability degree to the natural hazards were marked out on a base of data about the actual distribution of the natural hazards in Russia and analysis of the economic indices of the Russian Federation subjects. Among the economic indexes the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP), population density, road density, the degree of appraisal depreciation of the fixed assets, the land cultivation degree of the territory, forest share and so on were taken into account. As the analysis showed, the economic and social factors of the natural risk growth are active in the majority of the regions of the Russian Federation. Such a situation demands the increased attention of state and local authorities to this problem for lowering the economic and social constituents of the growth of natural hazards.

  11. Secondary natural gas recovery: Targeted applications for infield reserve growth in midcontinent reservoirs, Boonsville Field, Fort Worth Basin, Texas. Topical report, May 1993--June 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardage, B.A.; Carr, D.L.; Finley, R.J.; Tyler, N.; Lancaster, D.E.; Elphick, R.Y.; Ballard, J.R.

    1995-07-01

    The objectives of this project are to define undrained or incompletely drained reservoir compartments controlled primarily by depositional heterogeneity in a low-accommodation, cratonic Midcontinent depositional setting, and, afterwards, to develop and transfer to producers strategies for infield reserve growth of natural gas. Integrated geologic, geophysical, reservoir engineering, and petrophysical evaluations are described in complex difficult-to-characterize fluvial and deltaic reservoirs in Boonsville (Bend Conglomerate Gas) field, a large, mature gas field located in the Fort Worth Basin of North Texas. The purpose of this project is to demonstrate approaches to overcoming the reservoir complexity, targeting the gas resource, and doing so using state-of-the-art technologies being applied by a large cross section of Midcontinent operators.

  12. The estimation of long-run relationship between Serbian and German economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Ivan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Germany has always had an essential influence on Serbia's economic development. Today, Germany is Europe's economic and political superstar so this is even more pronounced. Hence, the aim of this paper is to explore the fundamental causal relationship between German and Serbian economy. In doing so, after the introductory part, where we emphasized interconnection in terms of investment, foreign trade, employment, new technologies etc., we are extending our study using quarterly 2004q1-2015q2 GDP data of both Serbia and Germany to estimate the Vector Error Correction model (VECM. The results suggest that there is co-integration between Serbia's and Germany's economic growth. The statistically significant negative coefficient on êt-1 indicates that Serbian GDP responds to a temporary disequilibrium between the Germany and Serbia. On the other hand, Germany does not appear to respond to a disequilibrium between the two economies; the t-ratio on êt-1 is statistically insignificant. These results support the idea that economic conditions in Serbia depend on those in Germany incomparably more than conditions in Germany depend on Serbia. Despite a solid long-term impact, there is not short run causality running from GerGDP to SrbGDP.

  13. Effects of gender and body weight on fibroblast growth factor 23 responsiveness to estimated dietary phosphorus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohta, Hiroyuki; Sakuma, Masae; Suzuki, Akitsu; Morimoto, Yuuka; Ishikawa, Makoto; Umeda, Minako; Arai, Hidekazu

    2016-01-01

    Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a molecule involved in regulating phosphorus homeostasis. Although some studies indicated an association between serum FGF23 levels and sex, the association has not been fully investigated. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether sex could influence FGF23 responsiveness to dietary phosphorus intake in healthy individuals. Thirty two healthy subjects between 21 and 28 years were recruited for this study. Subjects performed 24-hour urine collection and blood samples were collected. We estimated phosphorus intake (UC-P) from the urine collection (UC), and evaluated any association between UC-P and serum FGF23 levels. Subsequently, we compared serum FGF23 levels between males and females. Positive correlation was observed between UC-P and serum FGF23 levels. Serum FGF23 levels were significantly higher in males than in females. Serum FGF23 levels/UC-P was significantly higher in females than in males. There was no significant difference in serum FGF23 levels/UC-P/BW between the male and female groups. Our results indicate that there was no gender difference between FGF23 responsiveness to phosphorus intake per body weight.

  14. Factors affecting estimates of size at age and growth in grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus from the northern Gulf of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allman, R J; Patterson, W F; Fioramonti, C L; Pacicco, A E

    2018-02-01

    Growth zones in dorsal spines of grey triggerfish Balistes capriscus from the northern Gulf of Mexico were utilized to estimate growth and examine factors that may affect estimates of size at age. Age was estimated from dorsal-spine sections of 4687 individuals sampled from U.S. waters during 2003-2013, including both fishery-independent (n = 1312) and fishery-dependent (n = 3375) samples. Ninety-six per cent (n = 4498) of these sections were deemed suitable for ageing; average per cent error between two independent readers was 10·8%. Fork length (L F ) ranged from 65 to 697 mm and age estimates from 0 to 14 years. Both sex and sample source (fishery-independent v. recreational) significantly affected estimated size at age for 2-6 year-old fish. Data were pooled between sources to fit sex-specific von Bertalanffy growth functions. Results for the female model were L ∞  = 387 mm L F , k = 0·52 year -1 and t 0  = 0·01 year, while for males L ∞  = 405 mm L F , k = 0·55 year -1 and t 0  = 0·02 year. These results were significantly different between sexes and indicate clear sexual dimorphism. Thus, growth should be modelled separately by sex when examining population parameters or conducting stock assessment modelling. The positive bias in estimates of size at age computed for recreational v. fishery-independent samples also has clear implications for stock assessment as growth functions computed with fishery-dependent samples would tend to overestimate stock productivity. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  15. Estimation of genetic parameters for growth traits in a breeding program for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, G; Gu, W; Bai, Q L; Wang, B Q

    2013-04-26

    Genetic parameters and breeding values for growth traits were estimated in the first and, currently, the only family selective breeding program for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in China. Genetic and phenotypic data were collected for growth traits from 75 full-sibling families with a 2-generation pedigree. Genetic parameters and breeding values for growth traits of rainbow trout were estimated using the derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood method. The goodness-of-fit of the models was tested using Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. Genetic parameters and breeding values were estimated using the best-fit model for each trait. The values for heritability estimating body weight and length ranged from 0.20 to 0.45 and from 0.27 to 0.60, respectively, and the heritability of condition factor was 0.34. Our results showed a moderate degree of heritability for growth traits in this breeding program and suggested that the genetic and phenotypic tendency of body length, body weight, and condition factor were similar. Therefore, the selection of phenotypic values based on pedigree information was also suitable in this research population.

  16. Growth in NOx emissions from power plants in China: bottom-up estimates and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Lei

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Using OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument tropospheric NO2 columns and a nested-grid 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem, we investigated the growth in NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants and their contributions to the growth in NO2 columns in 2005–2007 in China. We first developed a unit-based power plant NOx emission inventory for 2005–2007 to support this investigation. The total capacities of coal-fired power generation have increased by 48.8% in 2005–2007, with 92.2% of the total capacity additions coming from generator units with size ≥300 MW. The annual NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants were estimated to be 8.11 Tg NO2 for 2005 and 9.58 Tg NO2 for 2007, respectively. The modeled summer average tropospheric NO2 columns were highly correlated (R2 = 0.79–0.82 with OMI measurements over grids dominated by power plant emissions, with only 7–14% low bias, lending support to the high accuracy of the unit-based power plant NOx emission inventory. The ratios of OMI-derived annual and summer average tropospheric NO2 columns between 2007 and 2005 indicated that most of the grids with significant NO2 increases were related to power plant construction activities. OMI had the capability to trace the changes of NOx emissions from individual large power plants in cases where there is less interference from other NOx sources. Scenario runs from GEOS-Chem model suggested that the new power plants contributed 18.5% and 10% to the annual average NO2 columns in 2007 in Inner Mongolia and North China, respectively. The massive new power plant NOx emissions significantly changed the local NO2 profiles, especially in less polluted areas. A sensitivity study found that changes of NO2 shape factors due to including new power plant emissions increased the summer average OMI tropospheric NO2 columns by 3.8–17.2% for six selected locations, indicating that the updated emission information could help to improve the satellite

  17. Growth in NOx emissions from power plants in China: bottom-up estimates and satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S. W.; Zhang, Q.; Streets, D. G.; He, K. B.; Martin, R. V.; Lamsal, L. N.; Chen, D.; Lei, Y.; Lu, Z.

    2012-05-01

    Using OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) tropospheric NO2 columns and a nested-grid 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem), we investigated the growth in NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants and their contributions to the growth in NO2 columns in 2005-2007 in China. We first developed a unit-based power plant NOx emission inventory for 2005-2007 to support this investigation. The total capacities of coal-fired power generation have increased by 48.8% in 2005-2007, with 92.2% of the total capacity additions coming from generator units with size ≥300 MW. The annual NOx emissions from coal-fired power plants were estimated to be 8.11 Tg NO2 for 2005 and 9.58 Tg NO2 for 2007, respectively. The modeled summer average tropospheric NO2 columns were highly correlated (R2 = 0.79-0.82) with OMI measurements over grids dominated by power plant emissions, with only 7-14% low bias, lending support to the high accuracy of the unit-based power plant NOx emission inventory. The ratios of OMI-derived annual and summer average tropospheric NO2 columns between 2007 and 2005 indicated that most of the grids with significant NO2 increases were related to power plant construction activities. OMI had the capability to trace the changes of NOx emissions from individual large power plants in cases where there is less interference from other NOx sources. Scenario runs from GEOS-Chem model suggested that the new power plants contributed 18.5% and 10% to the annual average NO2 columns in 2007 in Inner Mongolia and North China, respectively. The massive new power plant NOx emissions significantly changed the local NO2 profiles, especially in less polluted areas. A sensitivity study found that changes of NO2 shape factors due to including new power plant emissions increased the summer average OMI tropospheric NO2 columns by 3.8-17.2% for six selected locations, indicating that the updated emission information could help to improve the satellite retrievals.

  18. Geostatistical Approach to Estimating the Gold Ore Characteristics and Gold Reserves: A Case Study Daksa Area, Quang Nam Province, Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luan Truong, Xuan; Luong Le, Van; Quang Truong, Xuan

    2015-04-01

    Daksa gold deposit is the biggest gold deposits in Vietnam. The Daksa geological structure complicated, distributed mainly metamorphosed sedimentary NuiVu formation (PR3-?1nv2). The sulfide gold ore bodies distributed in quartz schist, quartz - biotite related to faut and distribution wing anticline. The gold ore bodies form circuits, network circuits, circuits lenses; fill the cup surface layer of the developing northeast - southwest; is the less than or west longitude north - SE. The results show that, Au and accompanying elements (Ag, Pb and Zn) have correlated pretty closely. All of its consistent with the logarithmic distribution standard, in accordance with the law of distribution of content mineral rare. The structure functions have nugget effect and spherical models with show that Au and accompanying elements special variation are changes. Au contents shown local anisotropy, no clearly anisotropy (K=1,17) and weakly anisotropy (K=1,4). Intensity mineralization of the ore bodies are quite high with demand spherical conversion coefficient ranging from 0.49 to 0.75 and from 0.66 to 0.97 (for other body). With nugget effects, ore bodies shown that it is consistent with mineralization in the ore bodies study, ore erasable, micro vein, infilling fractures in quartz vein. All of variogram presents local anisotropy, indicated gold mineralization at study area has least two-mineralization stages, consistent with the analysis of mineralography samples. By the results of the structure function study, the authors present the system optimization for exploration deposit and used to evaluate gold reserves by Ordinary Kriging. High accuracy of Kriging estimation results are expressed in the minimum Kriging variance, by compare the results calculated by some other methods (such as distance inverse weighting method, ..) and specially compare to the results of a some blocks have been exploited. Key words: Geostat and gold deposits VN. Daksa and gold mineralization. Geostat

  19. Estimation of myocardial blood flow and myocardial flow reserve by 99mTc-sestamibi imaging: comparison with the results of [15O]H2O PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Yoshinori; Noriyasu, Kazuyuki; Kohya, Tetsuro; Kitabatake, Akira; Katoh, Chietsugu; Kuge, Yuji; Furuyama, Hideto; Morita, Koichi; Tamaki, Nagara

    2003-01-01

    We developed a noninvasive method to quantitatively estimate the myocardial blood flow (MBF) index and flow reserve (MFR) using dynamic and static data obtained with technetium-99m sestamibi, and compared the results with MBF and MFR measured by oxygen-15-labeled water ([ 15 O]H 2 O) PET. Twenty patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and nine normal subjects underwent both 99m Tc-sestamibi and PET studies within 2 weeks. From the anterior view, dynamic data were acquired for 2 min immediately after the injection of 99m Tc-sestamibi, and planar static images were also obtained after 5 min at rest and during ATP stress (0.16 mg kg -1 min -1 for 5 min) on another day. The area under the time-activity curve on the aortic arch (Aorta ACU), myocardial weight with the SPET image (M), and the myocardial count on the planar image for 1 min (C m ) were obtained. The MBF index (MBFI) was calculated as follows: MBFI=C m /Aorta ACU x 100/M. MFR was measured by dividing the MBFI at ATP stress by MBFI at rest. The MBFI measured by 99m Tc-sestamibi was significantly correlated with MBF obtained using [ 15 O]H 2 O PET (MBFI=13.174+11.732 x MBF, r=0.821, P 99m Tc-sestamibi was well correlated with that obtained using [ 15 O]H 2 O PET, with some underestimation (r=0.845, P 99m Tc-sestamibi in patients with CAD was significantly lower than that in normal subjects (CAD: 1.484±0.256 vs normal: 2.127±0.308, P 99m Tc-sestamibi. This may be useful for the quantitative assessment of CAD, especially in those patients with diffuse coronary disease. (orig.)

  20. Tc-99m diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (DTPA) renal function reserve estimation: is it a reliable predictive tool for assessment of preclinical renal involvement in scleroderma patients?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Amr; El-Sayed, S; Taher, N; Sedki, M; Nasr, H

    2012-06-01

    Prognosis of systemic sclerosis (SSc) depends on internal organ involvement. We assessed the value of renal function reserve (RFR) for the detection of preclinical nephropathy in scleroderma. Thirty SSc patients with normal serum creatinine and 30 healthy controls were included. Medsger disease severity score, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), and microalbuminuria were measured. Tc-99m DTPA was utilized for GFR measurement at baseline and after oral protein overload (stimulated GFR). RFR was calculated as the percentile increase of stimulated GFR. SSc patients had lower means of baseline GFR (P=0.001), stimulated GFR (P=0.004), RFR (P=0.046), and higher microalbuminuria (P=0.009) than controls. According to baseline GFR, SSc patients showed three categories-normal baseline GFR (n=12), hyperfiltration GFR (n=3), and reduced baseline GFR (n=15). In the former category, RFR was normal in 6/12 patients and abnormal in the remainders (50%). Hyperfiltration patients and those with reduced baseline GFR showed abnormal RFR. A statistically significant negative association was found between microalbuminuria versus stimulated GFR and RFR (r= -0.5, P=0.007 and r= -0.45, P=0.013, respectively). The majority of SSc patients with abnormal RFR had disease duration of ≥48 months (60% vs. 20%, P=0.008). All SSc patients with pulmonary hypertension had abnormal RFR, while reduced baseline GFR was noted in only 60%. A significant negative correlation was found between reduced baseline GFR and cumulative dose of corticosteroids in SSc patients (r= -0.4, P=0.022). RFR estimation could be a useful predictive marker for preclinical renal involvement in SSc patients so that early prophylactic measures and therapy modifications could be considered.

  1. Effects of Stochasticity in Early Life History on Steepness and Population Growth Rate Estimates: An Illustration on Atlantic Bluefin Tuna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, Maximilien; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Bonhommeau, Sylvain; Gaertner, Daniel; Brodziak, Jon; Etienne, Marie-Pierre

    2012-01-01

    The intrinsic population growth rate (r) of the surplus production function used in the biomass dynamic model and the steepness (h) of the stock-recruitment relationship used in age-structured population dynamics models are two key parameters in fish stock assessment. There is generally insufficient information in the data to estimate these parameters that thus have to be constrained. We developed methods to directly estimate the probability distributions of r and h for the Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus, Scombridae), using all available biological and ecological information. We examined the existing literature to define appropriate probability distributions of key life history parameters associated with intrinsic growth rate and steepness, paying particular attention to the natural mortality for early life history stages. The estimated probability distribution of the population intrinsic growth rate was weakly informative, with an estimated mean r = 0.77 (±0.53) and an interquartile range of (0.34, 1.12). The estimated distribution of h was more informative, but also strongly asymmetric with an estimated mean h = 0.89 (±0.20) and a median of 0.99. We note that these two key demographic parameters strongly depend on the distribution of early life history mortality rate (M0), which is known to exhibit high year-to-year variations. This variability results in a widely spread distribution of M0 that affects the distribution of the intrinsic population growth rate and further makes the spawning stock biomass an inadequate proxy to predict recruitment levels. PMID:23119063

  2. Effects of stochasticity in early life history on steepness and population growth rate estimates: an illustration on Atlantic bluefin tuna.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximilien Simon

    Full Text Available The intrinsic population growth rate (r of the surplus production function used in the biomass dynamic model and the steepness (h of the stock-recruitment relationship used in age-structured population dynamics models are two key parameters in fish stock assessment. There is generally insufficient information in the data to estimate these parameters that thus have to be constrained. We developed methods to directly estimate the probability distributions of r and h for the Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus, Scombridae, using all available biological and ecological information. We examined the existing literature to define appropriate probability distributions of key life history parameters associated with intrinsic growth rate and steepness, paying particular attention to the natural mortality for early life history stages. The estimated probability distribution of the population intrinsic growth rate was weakly informative, with an estimated mean r = 0.77 (±0.53 and an interquartile range of (0.34, 1.12. The estimated distribution of h was more informative, but also strongly asymmetric with an estimated mean h = 0.89 (±0.20 and a median of 0.99. We note that these two key demographic parameters strongly depend on the distribution of early life history mortality rate (M(0, which is known to exhibit high year-to-year variations. This variability results in a widely spread distribution of M(0 that affects the distribution of the intrinsic population growth rate and further makes the spawning stock biomass an inadequate proxy to predict recruitment levels.

  3. Estimation of crack growth in the creep range during plastic cyclic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kullik, M.; Maile, K.

    1988-01-01

    The effect of creep stress on the crack growth at high temperatures was examined using the heat-resistant steel 13 CrMo 44 (St. 1.7335). The material was loaded with a static load at 560deg C, which led to a permanent strain of 2%. The tensile test values remained unchanged, but the notch impact work was considerably reduced. The fatigue crack growth in CT samples was not affected by the creep prestress. However, due to higher stress in the remaining ligament there was an acceleration in cracking compared to the initial state in the CCT samples. Stopping times at the load reversal points led to additional creep damage and therefore to a further rise in the crack growth rate. The dependence of the crack growth rate on frequency at high temperatures can be approximately described in the creep range by a linear superimposition of fatigue crack growth and creep crack growth. (orig./DG) [de

  4. Schooling and wage income losses due to early-childhood growth faltering in developing countries: national, regional, and global estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Günther; Peet, Evan; Danaei, Goodarz; Andrews, Kathryn; McCoy, Dana Charles; Sudfeld, Christopher R; Smith Fawzi, Mary C; Ezzati, Majid; Fawzi, Wafaie W

    2016-07-01

    The growth of >300 million children growth faltering in early childhood are not available. We quantified the economic cost of growth faltering in developing countries. We combined the most recent country-level estimates of linear growth delays from the Nutrition Impact Model Study with estimates of returns to education in developing countries to estimate the impact of early-life growth faltering on educational attainment and future incomes. Primary outcomes were total years of educational attainment lost as well as the net present value of future wage earnings lost per child and birth cohort due to growth faltering in 137 developing countries. Bootstrapped standard errors were computed to account for uncertainty in modeling inputs. Our estimates suggest that early-life growth faltering in developing countries caused a total loss of 69.4 million y of educational attainment (95% CI: 41.7 million, 92.6 million y) per birth cohort. Educational attainment losses were largest in South Asia (27.6 million y; 95% CI: 20.0 million, 35.8 million y) as well as in Eastern (10.3 million y; 95% CI: 7.2 million, 12.9 million y) and Western sub-Saharan Africa (8.8 million y; 95% CI: 6.4 million, 11.5 million y). Globally, growth faltering in developing countries caused a total economic cost of $176.8 billion (95% CI: $100.9 billion, $262.6 billion)/birth cohort at nominal exchange rates, and $616.5 billion (95% CI: $365.3 billion, $898.9 billion) at purchasing power parity-adjusted exchange rates. At the regional level, economic costs were largest in South Asia ($46.6 billion; 95% CI: $33.3 billion, $61.1 billion), followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion; 95% CI: $19.2 billion, $74.6 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion; 95% CI: $24.4 billion, $45.3 billion). Our results indicate that the annual cost of early-childhood growth faltering is substantial. Further investment in scaling up effective interventions in this area is urgently needed and likely to yield long run

  5. Growth estimation of mangrove cockle Anadara tuberculosa (Mollusca: Bivalvia: application and evaluation of length-based methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A Flores

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Growth is one of the key processes in the dynamic of exploited resources, since it provides part of the information required for structured population models. Growth of mangrove cockle, Anadara tuberculosa was estimated through length-based methods (ELEFAN I y NSLCA and using diverse shell length intervals (SLI. The variability of L∞, k and phi prime (Φ` estimates and the effect of each sample were quantified by jackknife techniques. Results showed the same L∞ estimates from ELEFAN I and NSLCA across each SLI used, and all L∞ were within the expected range. On the contrary, k estimates differed between methods. Jackknife estimations uncovered the tendency of ELEFAN I to overestimate k with increases in SLI, and allowed the identification of differences in uncertainty (PE and CV between both methods. The average values of Φ`derived from NSCLA1.5 and length-age sources were similar and corresponded to ranges reported by other authors. Estimates of L∞, k and Φ` from NSCLA1.5 were 85.97mm, 0.124/year and 2.953 with jackknife and 86.36mm de L∞, 0.110/year de k and 2.914 de Φ` without jackknife, respectively. Based on the observed evidence and according to the biology of the species, NSCLA is suggested to be used with jackknife and a SLI of 1.5mm as an ad hoc approach to estimate the growth parameters of mangrove cockle. Rev. Biol. Trop. 59 (1: 159-170. Epub 2011 March 01.

  6. Supersaturation Control using Analytical Crystal Size Distribution Estimator for Temperature Dependent in Nucleation and Crystal Growth Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahari, Zakirah Mohd; Zubaidah Adnan, Siti; Kanthasamy, Ramesh; Saleh, Suriyati; Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Abdul

    2018-03-01

    The specification of the crystal product is usually given in terms of crystal size distribution (CSD). To this end, optimal cooling strategy is necessary to achieve the CSD. The direct design control involving analytical CSD estimator is one of the approaches that can be used to generate the set-point. However, the effects of temperature on the crystal growth rate are neglected in the estimator. Thus, the temperature dependence on the crystal growth rate needs to be considered in order to provide an accurate set-point. The objective of this work is to extend the analytical CSD estimator where Arrhenius expression is employed to cover the effects of temperature on the growth rate. The application of this work is demonstrated through a potassium sulphate crystallisation process. Based on specified target CSD, the extended estimator is capable of generating the required set-point where a proposed controller successfully maintained the operation at the set-point to achieve the target CSD. Comparison with other cooling strategies shows a reduction up to 18.2% of the total number of undesirable crystals generated from secondary nucleation using linear cooling strategy is achieved.

  7. Estimating plant stem emerging points (PSEPs) of sugar of beets in early growth stages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Midtiby, Henrik; Mosgaard Giselsson, Thomas; Jørgensen, Rasmus Nyholm

    2012-01-01

    Successful intra--row mechanical weed control of sugar beet 
(beta vulgaris) in early growth stages requires precise 
knowledge about location of crop plants.
A computer vision system for locating Plant Stem Emerging Point (PSEP) 
of sugar beet in early growth stages was developed and tested...

  8. Growth of alveoli during postnatal development in humans based on stereological estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herring, Matt J; Putney, Lei F; Wyatt, Gregory; Finkbeiner, Walter E; Hyde, Dallas M

    2014-08-15

    Alveolarization in humans and nonhuman primates begins during prenatal development. Advances in stereological counting techniques allow accurate assessment of alveolar number; however, these techniques have not been applied to the developing human lung. Based on the recent American Thoracic Society guidelines for stereology, lungs from human autopsies, ages 2 mo to 15 yr, were fractionated and isometric uniform randomly sampled to count the number of alveoli. The number of alveoli was compared with age, weight, and height as well as growth between right and left lungs. The number of alveoli in the human lung increased exponentially during the first 2 yr of life but continued to increase albeit at a reduced rate through adolescence. Alveolar numbers also correlated with the indirect radial alveolar count technique. Growth curves for human alveolarization were compared using historical data of nonhuman primates and rats. The alveolar growth rate in nonhuman primates was nearly identical to the human growth curve. Rats were significantly different, showing a more pronounced exponential growth during the first 20 days of life. This evidence indicates that the human lung may be more plastic than originally thought, with alveolarization occurring well into adolescence. The first 20 days of life in rats implies a growth curve that may relate more to prenatal growth in humans. The data suggest that nonhuman primates are a better laboratory model for studies of human postnatal lung growth than rats. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

  9. Dry matter yield, chemical composition and estimated extractable protein of legume and grass species during the spring growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solati, Zeinab; Jørgensen, Uffe; Eriksen, Jørgen

    2017-01-01

    Carbohydrate and Protein System across six harvests during the spring growth. RESULTS The estimated extractable protein [g kg−1 dry matter (DM)] defined as the easily available fractions B1+B2 was significantly higher in white clover and lucerne at all harvests while, if the more cell wall attached fraction B3...... for protein production purpose in a biorefinery due to its high extractable protein content per kg DM. In order to maximise the protein production capacity, harvest should take place during early growth due to a decline in protein extractability with maturity. The final economy of the concept will depend...

  10. The influence of sulfur and hair growth on stable isotope diet estimates for grizzly bears.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garth Mowat

    Full Text Available Stable isotope ratios of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos guard hair collected from bears on the lower Stikine River, British Columbia (BC were analyzed to: 1 test whether measuring δ34S values improved the precision of the salmon (Oncorhynchus spp. diet fraction estimate relative to δ15N as is conventionally done, 2 investigate whether measuring δ34S values improves the separation of diet contributions of moose (Alces alces, marmot (Marmota caligata, and mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus and, 3 examine the relationship between collection date and length of hair and stable isotope values. Variation in isotope signatures among hair samples from the same bear and year were not trivial. The addition of δ34S values to mixing models used to estimate diet fractions generated small improvement in the precision of salmon and terrestrial prey diet fractions. Although the δ34S value for salmon is precise and appears general among species and areas, sulfur ratios were strongly correlated with nitrogen ratios and therefore added little new information to the mixing model regarding the consumption of salmon. Mean δ34S values for the three terrestrial herbivores of interest were similar and imprecise, so these data also added little new information to the mixing model. The addition of sulfur data did confirm that at least some bears in this system ate marmots during summer and fall. We show that there are bears with short hair that assimilate >20% salmon in their diet and bears with longer hair that eat no salmon living within a few kilometers of one another in a coastal ecosystem. Grizzly bears are thought to re-grow hair between June and October however our analysis of sectioned hair suggested at least some hairs begin growing in July or August, not June and, that hair of wild bears may grow faster than observed in captive bears. Our hair samples may have been from the year of sampling or the previous year because samples were collected in summer when

  11. The influence of sulfur and hair growth on stable isotope diet estimates for grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mowat, Garth; Curtis, P Jeff; Lafferty, Diana J R

    2017-01-01

    Stable isotope ratios of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) guard hair collected from bears on the lower Stikine River, British Columbia (BC) were analyzed to: 1) test whether measuring δ34S values improved the precision of the salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) diet fraction estimate relative to δ15N as is conventionally done, 2) investigate whether measuring δ34S values improves the separation of diet contributions of moose (Alces alces), marmot (Marmota caligata), and mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) and, 3) examine the relationship between collection date and length of hair and stable isotope values. Variation in isotope signatures among hair samples from the same bear and year were not trivial. The addition of δ34S values to mixing models used to estimate diet fractions generated small improvement in the precision of salmon and terrestrial prey diet fractions. Although the δ34S value for salmon is precise and appears general among species and areas, sulfur ratios were strongly correlated with nitrogen ratios and therefore added little new information to the mixing model regarding the consumption of salmon. Mean δ34S values for the three terrestrial herbivores of interest were similar and imprecise, so these data also added little new information to the mixing model. The addition of sulfur data did confirm that at least some bears in this system ate marmots during summer and fall. We show that there are bears with short hair that assimilate >20% salmon in their diet and bears with longer hair that eat no salmon living within a few kilometers of one another in a coastal ecosystem. Grizzly bears are thought to re-grow hair between June and October however our analysis of sectioned hair suggested at least some hairs begin growing in July or August, not June and, that hair of wild bears may grow faster than observed in captive bears. Our hair samples may have been from the year of sampling or the previous year because samples were collected in summer when bears were

  12. The Estimation of the Cointegration Relationship between the Economic Growth, Investments and Exports. The Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Corneliu Marinas

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between exports, investments and economic growth in Romania. For the search of this relationship I use a multivariate autoregressive VAR model. The results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports, investments and economic growth. Granger causality tests based on error correction models (ECM have indicated that investment and export influences the steady-state level of GDP.

  13. On the growth estimates of entire functions of double complex variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjib Datta

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recently Datta et al. (2016 introduced the idea of relative type and relative weak type of entire functions of two complex variables with respect to another entire function of two complex variables and prove some related growth properties of it. In this paper, further we study some growth properties of entire functions of two complex variables on the basis of their relative types and relative weak types as introduced by Datta et al (2016.

  14. Estimation and computation of the growth rate in Leslie's and Lotka's population models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D H

    1975-09-01

    Leslie's or Lotka's population model has a rate of natural increase (lambda or r) which represents the growth rate of the population and characterizes the ability of the population to attain a stable age distribution. In this article are presented upper and lower bounds on that rate, primarily in terms of the net reproduction rate and other commonly used parameters of the population. Also a discussion is given of quadratically convergent numerical iterative methods of computing the growth rate.

  15. Application of a Predictive Growth Model of Pseudomonas spp. for Estimating Shelf Life of Fresh Agaricus bisporus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianming; Chen, Junran; Hu, Yunfeng; Hu, Hanyan; Liu, Guohua; Yan, Ruixiang

    2017-10-01

    For prediction of the shelf life of the mushroom Agaricus bisporus, the growth curve of the main spoilage microorganisms was studied under isothermal conditions at 2 to 22°C with a modified Gompertz model. The effect of temperature on the growth parameters for the main spoilage microorganisms was quantified and modeled using the square root model. Pseudomonas spp. were the main microorganisms causing A. bisporus decay, and the modified Gompertz model was useful for modelling the growth curve of Pseudomonas spp. All the bias factors values of the model were close to 1. By combining the modified Gompertz model with the square root model, a prediction model to estimate the shelf life of A. bisporus as a function of storage temperature was developed. The model was validated for A. bisporus stored at 6, 12, and 18°C, and adequate agreement was found between the experimental and predicted data.

  16. Estimation of crack growth in the creep range during plastic cyclic loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kullik, M.; Maile, K.

    1990-01-01

    Crack growth investigations were performed on the creep-resistant steel 13 CrMo 4 4 in the fatigue and the creep fatigue regime, especially regarding the influence of creep damage on crack growth. To this effect, 2% creep strain was applied to the material at a temperature of 560deg C. The crack propagation rate was determined as a functionof the specimen shape, temperature, test frequency and hold times. In the case of compact tension (CT-)specimens, creep pretreatment does not affect crack growth. For center-cracked tension (CCT-)specimens, however, the creep pretreatment results in a considerable increase in the crack propagation rate. Hold times of 90 minutes at maximum loading cause an increase in da/dN due to further cavity nucleation. The hold time at which cavity nucleation might occur is evaluated. The dependency on frequency of crack growth may be evaluated by means of a linear superposition of creep and fatigue crack growth. The transition frequency above which pure fatigue crack growth occurs is calculated and the regimes of fatigue, creep and creep-fatigue interaction with environmental influences are characterized. (orig.)

  17. Growth of the peritrich epibiont Zoothamnium intermedium Precht, 1935 (Ciliophora, Peritrichia estimated from laboratory experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LRP. Utz

    Full Text Available Peritrich ciliates are commonly found colonizing living substrates. Although this a well known phenomenon, biological aspects of this relationship need to be studied in more detail. Assessment of growth rates in peritrichs has been the subject of very few studies. Only species in the genera Carchesium Ehrenberg, 1830 and Vorticella Linnaeus, 1767 had their growth rates evaluated in the field and in the laboratory. In the present study, growth, colonization (colonies/host, and proliferation (zooids/colony rates of the peritrich epibiont Zoothamnium intermedium Precht, 1935 attached to the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa Dana 1848 were evaluated in the laboratory in two food regimes: bacteria only, and algal based diet. Results showed that growth, colonization, and proliferation rates were similar for both diets. Maximum growth rates obtained for Z. intermedium was 0.85 and 0.83 per day, for bacteria and algae respectively. Maximum colonization rates were 0.5 per day for both diets, and the maximum proliferation rates were 0.44 and 0.42 per day for bacteria and algae respectively. These results demonstrate that Z. intermedium is able to grow at the same rate of other peritrichs on bacterial and algal based diets.

  18. Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated

  19. Improved estimates of age, growth and reproduction for the regionally endemic Galapagos sailfin grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usseglio, Paolo; Friedlander, Alan M; DeMartini, Edward E; Schuhbauer, Anna; Schemmel, Eva; Salinas de Léon, Pelayo

    2015-01-01

    The Galapagos Sailfin grouper, Mycteroperca olfax, locally known as bacalao and listed as vulnerable by the IUCN, is culturally, economically, and ecologically important to the Galapagos archipelago and its people. It is regionally endemic to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and, while an important fishery resource that has shown substantial declines in recent years, to date no effective management regulations are in place to ensure the sustainability of the Galapagos fishery for this species. Previous estimates of longevity and size at maturity for bacalao are inconsistent with estimates for congeners, which brings into question the accuracy of prior estimates. We set out to assess the age, growth, and reproductive biology of bacalao in order to provide more accurate life history information to inform more effective fisheries management for this species. The oldest fish in our sample was 21 years old, which is 2-3 times greater than previously reported estimates of longevity. Parameter estimates for the von Bertalanffy growth function (k = 0.11, L ∞ = 110 cm TL, and to = - 1.7 years) show bacalao to grow much slower and attain substantially larger asymptotic maximum length than previous studies. Mean size at maturity (as female) was estimated at 65.3 cm TL, corresponding to a mean age of 6.5 years. We found that sex ratios were extremely female biased (0.009 M:1F), with a large majority of the individuals in our experimental catch being immature (79%). Our results show that bacalao grow slower, live longer, and mature at a much larger size and greater age than previously thought, with very few mature males in the population. These findings have important implications for the fishery of this valuable species and provide the impetus for a long-overdue species management plan to ensure its long-term sustainability.

  20. Improved estimates of age, growth and reproduction for the regionally endemic Galapagos sailfin grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Usseglio

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The Galapagos Sailfin grouper, Mycteroperca olfax, locally known as bacalao and listed as vulnerable by the IUCN, is culturally, economically, and ecologically important to the Galapagos archipelago and its people. It is regionally endemic to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and, while an important fishery resource that has shown substantial declines in recent years, to date no effective management regulations are in place to ensure the sustainability of the Galapagos fishery for this species. Previous estimates of longevity and size at maturity for bacalao are inconsistent with estimates for congeners, which brings into question the accuracy of prior estimates. We set out to assess the age, growth, and reproductive biology of bacalao in order to provide more accurate life history information to inform more effective fisheries management for this species. The oldest fish in our sample was 21 years old, which is 2–3 times greater than previously reported estimates of longevity. Parameter estimates for the von Bertalanffy growth function (k = 0.11, L∞ = 110 cm TL, and to = − 1.7 years show bacalao to grow much slower and attain substantially larger asymptotic maximum length than previous studies. Mean size at maturity (as female was estimated at 65.3 cm TL, corresponding to a mean age of 6.5 years. We found that sex ratios were extremely female biased (0.009 M:1F, with a large majority of the individuals in our experimental catch being immature (79%. Our results show that bacalao grow slower, live longer, and mature at a much larger size and greater age than previously thought, with very few mature males in the population. These findings have important implications for the fishery of this valuable species and provide the impetus for a long-overdue species management plan to ensure its long-term sustainability.

  1. Genetic parameter estimates for growth traits of Large White pigs in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Variance components and genetic parameters were estimated using univariate and multivariate animal models. Direct heritability estimates from univariate analyses were 0.38, 0.24, 0.47, 0.39, 0.36 and 0.26 for BW0, BW3, BW8, BW12, BW24 and BW36, respectively. Maternal heritabilities were 0.42, 0.25 0.15 and 0.18 for ...

  2. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Carlos Eduardo Palhares; Flores, Marta Regina Pinheiro; Lima, Laíse Nascimento Correia; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; Franco, Ademir; Bezerra, Ana Cristina Barreto; Evison, Martin Paul; Guimarães, Marco Aurélio

    2017-01-01

    The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face-specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio)-for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month). The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil) was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6-22 years old). The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices). The method described shows promising potential for forensic applications, especially

  3. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Eduardo Palhares Machado

    Full Text Available The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face-specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio-for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month. The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6-22 years old. The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices. The method described shows promising potential for forensic

  4. Estimates of (covariance components and genetic parameters for growth traits in Suffolk lambs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Regina Tamioso

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed to estimate the components of (covariance and heritability for weights at birth (BW, weaning (WW and 180 days of age (W180, as well as the average daily gains from birth to weaning (ADG1, birth to 180 days of age (ADG2 and weaning to 180 days of age (ADG3 in Suffolk sheep. Thus, three different single-trait animal models were fitted, considering the direct additive genetic effect (Model 1, the direct additive genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects (Model 2, and in Model 3, in addition to those in Model 2, the maternal additive genetic effect was included. After comparing models through the likelihood ratio test (LRT, model 3 was chosen as the most appropriate to estimate heritability for BW, WW and ADG1. Model 2 was considered as the best to estimate the coefficient of heritability for W180 and ADG2, and model 1 for ADG3. Direct heritability estimates were inflated when maternal effects were ignored. According to the most suitable models, the heritability estimates for BW, WW, W180, ADG1, ADG2 and ADG3 were 0.06, 0.08, 0.09, 0.07, 0.08 and 0.07, respectively, indicating low possibility of genetic gain through individual selection. The results show the importance of including maternal effects in the models to properly estimate genetic parameters even at post-weaning ages.

  5. Application of artificial neural network with extreme learning machine for economic growth estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milačić, Ljubiša; Jović, Srđan; Vujović, Tanja; Miljković, Jovica

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The economic growth forecasting was analyzed based on agriculture, manufacturing, industry and services value added in GDP. The results were compared with ANN with back propagation (BP) learning approach since BP could be considered as conventional learning methodology. The reliability of the computational models was accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based on results, it was shown that ANN with ELM learning methodology can be applied effectively in applications of GDP forecasting.

  6. Estimating blue whale skin isotopic incorporation rates and baleen growth rates: Implications for assessing diet and movement patterns in mysticetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busquets-Vass, Geraldine; Newsome, Seth D; Calambokidis, John; Serra-Valente, Gabriela; Jacobsen, Jeff K; Aguíñiga-García, Sergio; Gendron, Diane

    2017-01-01

    Stable isotope analysis in mysticete skin and baleen plates has been repeatedly used to assess diet and movement patterns. Accurate interpretation of isotope data depends on understanding isotopic incorporation rates for metabolically active tissues and growth rates for metabolically inert tissues. The aim of this research was to estimate isotopic incorporation rates in blue whale skin and baleen growth rates by using natural gradients in baseline isotope values between oceanic regions. Nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) isotope values of blue whale skin and potential prey were analyzed from three foraging zones (Gulf of California, California Current System, and Costa Rica Dome) in the northeast Pacific from 1996-2015. We also measured δ15N and δ13C values along the lengths of baleen plates collected from six blue whales stranded in the 1980s and 2000s. Skin was separated into three strata: basale, externum, and sloughed skin. A mean (±SD) skin isotopic incorporation rate of 163±91 days was estimated by fitting a generalized additive model of the seasonal trend in δ15N values of skin strata collected in the Gulf of California and the California Current System. A mean (±SD) baleen growth rate of 15.5±2.2 cm y-1 was estimated by using seasonal oscillations in δ15N values from three whales. These oscillations also showed that individual whales have a high fidelity to distinct foraging zones in the northeast Pacific across years. The absence of oscillations in δ15N values of baleen sub-samples from three male whales suggests these individuals remained within a specific zone for several years prior to death. δ13C values of both whale tissues (skin and baleen) and potential prey were not distinct among foraging zones. Our results highlight the importance of considering tissue isotopic incorporation and growth rates when studying migratory mysticetes and provide new insights into the individual movement strategies of blue whales.

  7. A Panel Estimation of the Relationship Between Trade Liberalization, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in BRICS Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrara Mohsen

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, several studies have found an inverted-U relationship between per capita income and environmental degradation. This relationship, known as the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC, suggests that environmental degradation increases in the early stages of growth, but it eventually decreases as income exceeds a threshold level. However, this paper investigation relationship between per capita CO2 emission, growth economics and trade liberalization based on econometric techniques of unit root test, co-integration and a panel data set during the period 1960-1996 for BRICS countries. Data properties were analyzed to determine their stationarity using the LLC , IPS , ADF and PP unit root tests which indicated that the series are I(1. We find a cointegration relationship between per capita CO2 emission, growth economics and trade liberalization by applying Kao panel cointegration test. The evidence indi\tcates that in the long-run trade liberalization has a positive significant impact on CO2 emissions and impact of trade liberalization on emissions growth depends on the level of income Our findings suggest that there is a quadratic relationship between relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions for the region as a whole. The estimated long-run coefficients of real GDP and its square satisfy the EKC hypothesis in all of studied countries. Our estimation shows that the inflection point or optimal point real GDP per capita is about 5269.4 dollars. The results show that on average, sample countries are on the positive side of the inverted U curve. The turning points are very low in some cases and very high in other cases, hence providing poor evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis. Thus, our findings suggest that all BRICS countries need to sacrifice economic growth to decrease their emission levels

  8. Estimating the impacts of urban growth on future flood risk: A comparative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verbeek, W.

    2017-01-01

    The unprecedented growth of cities has a significant impact on future flood risk that might exceed the impacts of climate change in many metropolitan areas across the world. Although the effects of urbanisation on flood risk are well understood, assessments that include spatially explicit future

  9. Estimating the impacts of urban growth on future flood risk : A comparative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerbeek, W.

    2017-01-01

    The unprecedented growth of cities has a significant impact on future flood risk that might exceed the impacts of climate change in many metropolitan areas across the world. Although the effects of urbanisation on flood risk are well understood, assessments that include spatially explicit future

  10. Integrating agronomic principles into production function estimation: A dichotomy of growth inputs and facilitating inputs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhengfei, G.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Wossink, G.A.A.

    2006-01-01

    This article presents a general conceptual framework for integrating agronomic principles into economic production analysis. We categorize inputs in crop production into growth inputs and facilitating inputs. Based on this dichotomy we specify an asymmetric production function. The robustness of the

  11. Maximum likelihood estimators for extended growth curve model with orthogonal between-individual design matrices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein, Daniel; Zezula, Ivan

    The extended growth curve model is discussed in this paper. There are two versions of the model studied in the literature, which differ in the way how the column spaces of the design matrices are nested. The nesting is applied either to the between-individual or to the within-individual design

  12. Revisiting a model of ontogenetic growth: estimating model parameters from theory and data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Melanie E; Hou, Chen; Woodruff, William H; West, Geoffrey B; Nekola, Jeffery C; Zuo, Wenyun; Brown, James H

    2008-05-01

    The ontogenetic growth model (OGM) of West et al. provides a general description of how metabolic energy is allocated between production of new biomass and maintenance of existing biomass during ontogeny. Here, we reexamine the OGM, make some minor modifications and corrections, and further evaluate its ability to account for empirical variation on rates of metabolism and biomass in vertebrates both during ontogeny and across species of varying adult body size. We show that the updated version of the model is internally consistent and is consistent with other predictions of metabolic scaling theory and empirical data. The OGM predicts not only the near universal sigmoidal form of growth curves but also the M(1/4) scaling of the characteristic times of ontogenetic stages in addition to the curvilinear decline in growth efficiency described by Brody. Additionally, the OGM relates the M(3/4) scaling across adults of different species to the scaling of metabolic rate across ontogeny within species. In providing a simple, quantitative description of how energy is allocated to growth, the OGM calls attention to unexplained variation, unanswered questions, and opportunities for future research.

  13. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Carlos Eduardo Palhares; Flores, Marta Regina Pinheiro; Lima, Laíse Nascimento Correia; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; Bezerra, Ana Cristina Barreto; Evison, Martin Paul; Guimarães, Marco Aurélio

    2017-01-01

    The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face—specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio)—for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month). The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil) was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6–22 years old). The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices). The method described shows promising potential for forensic applications

  14. Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods [version 2; referees: 3 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kebede Deribe

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the  magnitude of podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia. Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above, by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015. Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%, while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent.  Conclusions: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is

  15. Influence of ultrasonic disintegration on sludge growth reduction and its estimation by respirometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Chockalingam Lajapathi; Struenkmann, Georg; Mueller, Johannes; Rao, Paruchuri Gangadhar

    2004-11-01

    Excess biomass generation during wastewater treatment is a great threat to the ecology if it is not properly disposed. Sludge growth reduction is one of the best ways to alleviate the problem. The present study focused in this direction employs ultrasound to disintegrate the floc without causing cell disruption. It has been found that a major size reduction that takes place at a lower energy input (3000 kJ/kg) and a further increase in energy input results only in minor changes. Sludge growth reduction is found to be of the order of 29% and energy efficient under flowthrough conditions. The effect of disintegration is substantiated by respirometric studies, microscopic examination, degree of inactivation, and degree of COD release.

  16. Estimating FAPAR of Rice Growth Period Using Radiation Transfer Model Coupled with the WOFOST Model for Analyzing Heavy Metal Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaoxiang Zhou

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Timely assessment of crop growth conditions under heavy metal pollution is of great significance for agricultural decision-making and estimation of crop productivity. The object of this study is to assess the effects of heavy metal stress on physiological functions of rice through the spatial-temporal analysis of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR. The calculation of daily FAPAR is conducted based on a coupled model consisting of the leaf-canopy radiative transfer model and World Food Study Model (WOFOST. These two models are connected by leaf area index (LAI and a fraction of diffused incoming solar radiation (SKYL in the rice growth period. The input parameters of the coupled model are obtained from measured data and GF-1 images. Meanwhile, in order to improve accuracy of FAPAR, the crop growth model is optimized by data assimilation. The validation result shows that the correlation between the simulated FAPAR and the measured data is strong in the rice growth period, with the correlation coefficients being above 7.5 for two areas. The discrepancy of FAPAR between two areas of different stress levels is visualized by spatial-temporal analysis. FAPAR discrepancy starts to appear in the jointing-booting period and experiences a gradual rise, reaching its maximum in the heading-flowering stage. This study suggests that the coupled model, consisting of the leaf-canopy radiative transfer model and the WOFOST model, is able to accurately simulate daily FAPAR during crop growth period and FAPAR can be used as a potential indicator to reflect the impact of heavy metal stress on crop growth.

  17. Heritability estimates for pre-weaning growth traits in the Adelaide ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimates from animal models which excluded maternal genetic efTects were biased upwards. while the inclusion of maternal genetic effects resulted in lowcr and presurnably more realistic variance contpo- nents. Maternal effects were large for birth weight and small for the other three traits. Selection fbr weaning weight or ...

  18. Age estimation, growth rate and size at sexual maturity of tigerfish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A total of 206 tigerfish Hydrocynus vittatus, collected by angling in August 2005, 2006 and 2007, was assessed for sexual maturity and relative ages were estimated from 135 of these, using scales and whole and sectioned otoliths. Sectioned otoliths were the most appropriate method for ageing H. vittatus of up to 20 years ...

  19. Estimation of Complex Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Measurement and Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Minjeong

    2012-01-01

    Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) is technically challenging because of the intractable likelihoods that involve high dimensional integrations over random effects. The problem is magnified when the random effects have a crossed design and thus the data cannot be reduced to small independent clusters. A…

  20. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this Box – Jenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  1. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this Box – Jenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  2. Race/ethnic disparities in reproductive age: an examination of ovarian reserve estimates across four race/ethnic groups of healthy, regularly cycling women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleil, Maria E; Gregorich, Steven E; Adler, Nancy E; Sternfeld, Barbara; Rosen, Mitchell P; Cedars, Marcelle I

    2014-01-01

    To determine whether reproductive age, as indexed by a validated marker of ovarian reserve (antimüllerian hormone [AMH]), varies among women of different race/ethnic backgrounds. Cross-sectional study. Community-based sample. Multiethnic sample of 947 (277 white, 237 African American, 220 Latina, and 213 Chinese) healthy and regularly cycling premenopausal women, ages 25-45. None. AMH level. A multivariate model was fit examining race/ethnicity, covariates, nonlinear terms for age (age(2), age(3)), and body mass index (BMI(2), BMI(3)), and two-way interactions between race/ethnicity and each of the other predictor variables in relation to AMH. After backward elimination, significant effects included race/ethnicity (F = 8.45), age (F = 349.94), race/ethnicity-by-linear age interaction (F = 4.67), age(2) (F = 31.61), and BMI (F = 10.69). Inspection of the significant race/ethnicity-by-linear age interaction showed AMH levels were consistently lower among Latina women compared with white women across all ages, whereas AMH levels were lower among African American and Chinese women compared with the white women at younger and middle ages, respectively. The AMH levels were higher among African American compared with Latina and Chinese women at older ages. Although the results must be considered preliminary, the findings are twofold: African American women may have lower AMH levels at younger ages but experience less of a reduction in AMH with advancing age, and Latina and Chinese women compared with white women may have lower AMH levels, marking a lower ovarian reserve and a possibly increased risk for earlier menopause. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Variations in estimates of underweight, stunting, wasting, overweight and obesity in children from Argentina comparing three growth charts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padula, Gisel; Seoane, Analía I; Salceda, Susana A

    2012-11-01

    To compare estimates of underweight, stunting, wasting, overweight and obesity based on three growth charts. Cross-sectional study to estimate weight-for-age, length/height-for-age and weight-for-height comparing the 2006 WHO Child Growth Standards ('the WHO standards'), the 1977 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) international growth reference ('the NCHS reference') and the 1987 Argentine Pediatric Society Committee of Growth and Development reference ('the APS reference'). Cut-off points were defined as mean values ±2 s d. Epi-Info software version 6·0 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) was used for statistical evaluations (χ 2, P ≤ 0·05). Greater La Plata conurbation, Buenos Aires, Argentina. A total of 2644 healthy, full-term children from 0 to 5 years of age. Prevalence of underweight was higher with the WHO standards than with the other references up to the first 6 months. For the rest of the ages, prevalence was lower with the WHO standards. Stunting prevalence was higher with the WHO standards at all ages. Prevalence of wasting was higher with the WHO standards compared with the NCHS reference up to the first 6 months and lower at 2-5 years of age. Overweight and obesity prevalences were higher with the WHO standards at all ages. The new WHO standards appear to be a solid and reliable tool for diagnosis and treatment of nutritional diseases, also being the only one built with infants fed according to WHO recommendations. Therefore, our results support the decision of the National Ministry of Health about the utilization of the new WHO standards to monitor the nutritional status of Argentinean children aged less than 5 years.

  4. Spatial Rice Yield Estimation Based on MODIS and Sentinel-1 SAR Data and ORYZA Crop Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri D. Setiyono

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Crop insurance is a viable solution to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to risks from pest and disease outbreaks, extreme weather events, and market shocks that threaten their household food and income security. In developing and emerging countries, the implementation of area yield-based insurance, the form of crop insurance preferred by clients and industry, is constrained by the limited availability of detailed historical yield records. Remote-sensing technology can help to fill this gap by providing an unbiased and replicable source of the needed data. This study is dedicated to demonstrating and validating the methodology of remote sensing and crop growth model-based rice yield estimation with the intention of historical yield data generation for application in crop insurance. The developed system combines MODIS and SAR-based remote-sensing data to generate spatially explicit inputs for rice using a crop growth model. MODIS reflectance data were used to generate multitemporal LAI maps using the inverted Radiative Transfer Model (RTM. SAR data were used to generate rice area maps using MAPScape-RICE to mask LAI map products for further processing, including smoothing with logistic function and running yield simulation using the ORYZA crop growth model facilitated by the Rice Yield Estimation System (Rice-YES. Results from this study indicate that the approach of assimilating MODIS and SAR data into a crop growth model can generate well-adjusted yield estimates that adequately describe spatial yield distribution in the study area while reliably replicating official yield data with root mean square error, RMSE, of 0.30 and 0.46 t ha−1 (normalized root mean square error, NRMSE of 5% and 8% for the 2016 spring and summer seasons, respectively, in the Red River Delta of Vietnam, as evaluated at district level aggregation. The information from remote-sensing technology was also useful for identifying geographic locations with

  5. Estimates of phenotypic and genetic trends of growth traits in N ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... 0.18±0.06kg/yr and -0.005 ±0.003kglyr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. In contrast, all estimated genetic trends were relatively small and not significantly different from zero. They were 0.02±0.05kg/yr, 0.02±0.05kg/yr and 0.1g/yr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. The sequential polynomial fitting of ...

  6. Projected Urban Growth (2000 - 2050) and Its Estimated Impact on the US Forest Resource

    Science.gov (United States)

    David J. Nowak; Jeffrey T. Walton; Jeffrey T. Walton

    2005-01-01

    Urban land in the United States is projected to increase from 3.1% in 2000 to 8.1% in 2050, an area of 392,400 km2, which is larger than the state of Montana. By 2050, four states (Rhode Island, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Connecticut) are projected to be more than one-half urban land. The total projected amount of US forestland estimated to be subsumed by...

  7. Impact of company capital structure on of its value growth estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirogova Oksana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the influence of the use of commercial loans on the free cash flow generation based on cost-based management concept. It is shown that the use of commercial credit instead of the usual short-term lending reduces the force of the operational lever. On the other hand, when calculating the economic added value indicators, the use of conventional lending leads to the increase in the economic added value and as a result of the higher cost of growth. This effect is associated with the redistribution of cash outflows and changes in the level of risk for the stakeholders of the enterprise.

  8. Estimates of growth and mortality of under-yearling smallmouth bass in Spednic Lake, from 1970 through 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Robert W.; Trial, Joan G.

    2014-01-01

    This report is the product of a 2013 cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey, the International Joint Commission, and the Maine Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat to quantify the effects of meteorological conditions (from 1970 through 2008) on the survival of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in the first year of life in Spednic Lake. This report documents the data and methods used to estimate historical daily mean lake surface-water temperatures from early spring through late autumn, which were used to estimate the dates of smallmouth bass spawning, young-of-the-year growth, and probable strength of each year class. Mortality of eggs and fry in nests was modeled and estimated to exceed 10 percent in 17 of 39 years; during those years, cold temperatures in the early part of the spawning period resulted in mortality to fish that were estimated to have had the longest growing season and attain the greatest length. Modeled length-dependent overwinter survival combined with early mortality identified 1986, 1994, 1996, and 2004 as the years in which temperature was likely to have presented the greatest challenge to year-class strength in the Spednic Lake fishery. Age distribution of bass in fisheries on lakes in the St. Croix and surrounding watersheds confirmed that conditions in 1986 and 1996 resulted in weak smallmouth bass year classes (age-four or age-five bass representing less than 15 percent of a 100-fish sample).

  9. PERFORMANCE AND HETEROTIC ESTIMATION OF GROWTH IN INTRASPECIFIC CROSSING OF GIANT GOURAMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Didik Ariyanto

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Intraspecific crossing of giant gouramy was done to get better hybrid population. This study was conducted to evaluate the hybrid vigour or heterotic value of the hybrids line, especially for growth rate character. Besides that, we want to know the effect of hybridization on performance of phenotypic variability. Two days post hatching age larvae of four populations i.e. Bastar and Blue-saphire strain, F-1 hybrid and F-1 hybrid reciprocal, were used in this experiment. All fish were reared in aquaria for 30 days period in indoor hatchery. The fish were fed with live food such as Moina and Daphnia for the first ten days, followed by Tubifex for the second ten days and finally, commercial feed were given until the end of the study. The collected data were total length, standard length, and body weight of each population. The results showed that the phenotypic variability of the hybrid population was higher than that of inbred population. Hybrid population from female of Bastar and male of Blue-saphire has better growth than both of its parents. Heterotic values of total length, standard length, and body weight of the hybrid population was 9.5%, 2.9%, and 15.6% respectively. Maternal effect was detected in hybrid population.

  10. Estimating the freshwater-lens reserve in the coastal plain of the middle Río de la Plata Estuary (Argentina).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cellone, Francisco; Tosi, Luigi; Carol, Eleonora

    2018-02-23

    Drinking-water supply is one of the main issues that populations face in many coastlands. Shallow coastal aquifers are often characterized by the presence of lens-shaped freshwater floating on the saline groundwater plume of marine origin. These groundwater lenses are commonly associated with landforms, such as littoral ridges and dunes and in many cases they represent the main source of water supply in remote coastal areas. At the right side of the middle Río de la Plata estuary (Argentina) the aquifer system is generally saline. Elongated and thin sandy beach ridge systems emerging from the general flat morphology of the marsh-flood plain are capable of storing precipitations forming freshwater lenses, which to date are the main freshwater supply for inhabitants. The aim of this study is to identify and delimitate the presence of such valuable freshwater reserves in order to provide the first necessary guidelines for the water management plan in this area, which has never been implemented since, to the Authors' knowledge, no specific investigation had been carried out before this study. To achieve this goal, Vertical Electrical Sounding, groundwater electrical conductivity measurements, water balances and groundwater chemical analyses were performed and interpreted together. The whole dataset was processed to define the electro-stratigraphic model of the study area and to produce the map of the electrical conductivity of the shallow aquifer. In addition, a three-dimensional model of the fresh water reservoir has been implemented for a better understanding of the relationship between geomorphology and groundwater. Results point out that a total freshwater volume of 78,259,700m 3 is stored into a continuous lens and the annual average recharge from precipitation amounts to 6,303,500m 3 . Although preliminary, this work provides the basic knowledge on the potential fresh groundwater lenses and provides important information for addressing a sustainable use of the

  11. Estimation of genetic parameters and genetic changes for growth characteristics of Santa Ines sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, E L; Mattos, E C; Eler, J P; Barreto Neto, A D; Ferraz, J B

    2016-08-19

    Studying genetic parameters and genetic changes in Santa Ines sheep is important, because it is the commonest breed in Brazil. This study obtained genetic data from 37,735 pedigree records of lambs over 12 years (2003-2014) from 33 flocks in 10 Brazilian States; 11,851 records of performance were available. (Co)variance components, genetic parameters and breeding values estimates were obtained by derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood in a univariate analysis that included maternal additive genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. Birth weight, weaning weight, weight at 180 days of age, weight at 270 days of age, average daily weight gain in the following states: from birth to weaning, from weaning to 6 months, from 6 months to 9 months, and from weaning to 9 months; presence of hair in fur and leg muscularity were assessed. (Co)variance component values increased in the weight traits with age. A significant maternal effect was found in the pre-weaned stage that decreased in the post-weaned stage. High values were estimated for the maternal permanent environmental effect, possibly because of the extensive grassland that was available. High total heritability values were estimated for all of the traits evaluated. Significant, positive correlations were found between direct and maternal additive genetic traits with a gradual decrease as the lambs gained independence from their mothers. The genetic trends observed were irregular and incremental. Significant genetic variance suggests that direct selection for pre-weaning traits results in indirect selection of maternal abilities, and individual selection of any post-weaning trait results in rapid genetic improvement.

  12. Growth estimation of mangrove cockle Anadara tuberculosa (Mollusca: Bivalvia: application and evaluation of length-based methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A Flores

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Growth is one of the key processes in the dynamic of exploited resources, since it provides part of the information required for structured population models. Growth of mangrove cockle, Anadara tuberculosa was estimated through length-based methods (ELEFAN I y NSLCA and using diverse shell length intervals (SLI. The variability of L∞, k and phi prime (Φ` estimates and the effect of each sample were quantified by jackknife techniques. Results showed the same L∞ estimates from ELEFAN I and NSLCA across each SLI used, and all L∞ were within the expected range. On the contrary, k estimates differed between methods. Jackknife estimations uncovered the tendency of ELEFAN I to overestimate k with increases in SLI, and allowed the identification of differences in uncertainty (PE and CV between both methods. The average values of Φ`derived from NSCLA1.5 and length-age sources were similar and corresponded to ranges reported by other authors. Estimates of L∞, k and Φ` from NSCLA1.5 were 85.97mm, 0.124/year and 2.953 with jackknife and 86.36mm de L∞, 0.110/year de k and 2.914 de Φ` without jackknife, respectively. Based on the observed evidence and according to the biology of the species, NSCLA is suggested to be used with jackknife and a SLI of 1.5mm as an ad hoc approach to estimate the growth parameters of mangrove cockle. Rev. Biol. Trop. 59 (1: 159-170. Epub 2011 March 01.El crecimiento es uno de los procesos clave en la dinámica de los recursos explotados. En este estudio se estimó el crecimiento de la concha prieta Anadara tuberculosa por medio de métodos basados en tallas (ELEFAN I y NSLCA y usando distintos intervalos de clase de talla (ICT. La variabilidad de los estimadores para L∞y k, y el efecto de cada muestra e ICT fueron cuantificados por la técnica de jackknife. ELEFAN I y NSLCA producen una misma estimación de L∞para cada uno de los ICT. Por el contrario, para k ambos métodos estiman diferentes valores. Las

  13. Age estimation of juvenile European hake Merluccius merluccius based on otolith microstructure analysis: a slow or fast growth pattern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattoura, P; Lefkaditou, E; Megalofonou, P

    2015-03-01

    The main goal of this study was to examine otolith microstructure and to estimate the age and growth of European hake Merluccius merluccius from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. One hundred and twenty-nine specimens ranging from 102 to 438 mm in total length (LT ) were used. Age estimations were based on the study of the otolith microstructure, which was revealed after grinding both frontal sides of otoliths. The enumerations of the daily growth increments (DGI) as well as their width (WDGI ) measurements were made on calibrated digital images. The number of DGI in otoliths ranged between 163 and 717. Four phases in the WDGI evolution were distinguished: (1) larval-juvenile pelagic phase, with an increasing trend in WDGI up to the 60th DGI, (2) settlement phase, with a short-term deceleration in WDGI between the 61st and 150th DGI, (3) juvenile demersal phase, characterized by a stabilization of WDGI from 151st to 400th DGI and (4) adult phase, with a decreasing trend in WDGI after the 400th DGI. Age, sex and month of formation were found to affect the WDGI in all phases, with the exception of age at the juvenile demersal phase. The power curve with intercept model described best the relationship of M. merluccius LT with age (TDGI ), according to Akaike criteria, revealing differences in growth between females [LT = 65 · 36(TDGI )(0 · 40) - 388 · 55] and males [LT = 69 · 32(TDGI )(0 · 37) - 352 · 88] for the sizes examined. The mean daily growth rates were 0·61 mm day(-1) for females and 0·52 mm day(-1) for males, resulting in an LT of 283 and 265 mm at the end of their first year of life. In comparison with previous studies on the Mediterranean Sea, the results of this study showed a greater growth rate, similar to results from tagging experiments and otolith microstructure analyses for M. merluccius in other geographic areas. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  14. International Trade, Pollution Accumulation and Sustainable Growth: A VAR Estimation from the Pearl River Delta Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Hui; Tian, Lu

    2018-03-01

    In order to investigate international trade influence in the regional environment. This paper constructs a vector auto-regression (VAR) model and estimates the equations with the environment and trade data of the Pearl River Delta Region. The major mechanisms to the lag are discussed and the fit simulation of the environmental change by the international impulse is given. The result shows that impulse of pollution-intensive export deteriorates the environment continuously and impulse of such import improves it. These effects on the environment are insignificantly correlated with contemporary regional income but significantly correlative to early-stage trade feature. To a typical trade-dependent economy, both export and import have hysteresis influence in the regional environment. The lagged impulse will change environmental development in the turning point, maximal pollution level and convergence.

  15. Coupling estimated effects of QTLs for physiological traits to a crop growth model: Predicting yield variation among recombinant inbred lines in barley

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, X.Y.; Chasalow, S.D.; Dourleijn, C.J.; Stam, P.; Kropff, M.J.

    2000-01-01

    Advances in the use of molecular markers to elucidate the inheritance of quantitative traits enable the integration of genetic information on physiological traits into crop growth models. The objective of this study was to assess the ability of a crop growth model with QTL-based estimates of

  16. Growth, characterization and estimation of lattice strain and size in CdS nanoparticles: X-ray peak profile analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solanki, Rekha Garg; Rajaram, Poolla; Bajpai, P. K.

    2017-12-01

    This work is based on the growth, characterization and estimation of lattice strain and crystallite size in CdS nanoparticles by X-ray peak profile analysis. The CdS nanoparticles were synthesized by a non-aqueous solvothermal method and were characterized by powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), Raman and UV-visible spectroscopy. XRD confirms that the CdS nanoparticles have the hexagonal structure. The Williamson-Hall (W-H) method was used to study the X-ray peak profile analysis. The strain-size plot (SSP) was used to study the individual contributions of crystallite size and lattice strain from the X-rays peaks. The physical parameters such as strain, stress and energy density values were calculated using various models namely, isotropic strain model, anisotropic strain model and uniform deformation energy density model. The particle size was estimated from the TEM images to be in the range of 20-40 nm. The Raman spectrum shows the characteristic optical 1LO and 2LO vibrational modes of CdS. UV-visible absorption studies show that the band gap of the CdS nanoparticles is 2.48 eV. The results show that the crystallite size estimated from Scherrer's formula, W-H plots, SSP and the particle size calculated by TEM images are approximately similar.

  17. Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Direct and Maternal Effects in Growth Traits of Sangsari Sheep Using Gibbs Sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Yousefi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Small ruminants, especially native breed types, play an important role in livelihoods of a considerable part of human population in the tropics from socio-economic aspects. Therefore, integrated attempt in terms of management and genetic improvement to enhance production is of crucial importance. Knowledge of genetic variation and co-variation among traits is required for both the design of effective sheep breeding programs and the accurate prediction of genetic progress from these programs. Body weight and growth traits are one of the economically important traits in sheep production, especially in Iran where lamb sale is the main source of income for sheep breeders while other products are in secondary importance. Although mutton is the most important source of protein in Iran, meat production from the sheep does not cover the increasing consumer demand. On the other hand, increase in sheep number to increase meat production has been limited by low quality and quantity of forage range. Therefore, enhancing meat production should be achieved by selecting the animals that have maximum genetic merit as next generation parents. To design an efficient improvement program and genetic evaluation system for maximization response to selection for economically important traits, accurate estimates of the genetic parameters and the genetic relationships between the traits are necessary. Studies of various sheep breeds have shown that both direct and maternal genetic influences are of importance for lamb growth. When growth traits are included in the breeding goal, both direct and maternal genetic effects should be taken into account in order to achieve optimum genetic progress. The objective of this study was to estimate the variance components and heritability, for growth traits, by fitting six animal models in the Sangsari sheep using Gibbs sampling. Material and Method Sangsari is a fat-tailed and relatively small sized breed of sheep

  18. Hazard plotting and estimates for the tumor rate and the tumor growth time for radiogenic osteosarcomas in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.; Marshall, J.H.

    1976-01-01

    The tumor rate (hazard rate) and the tumor growth time were estimated from a multiply censored sample of observed tumor appearance times in persons with an initial intake of 226 Ra and 228 Ra larger than about 230 μCi/kg bone. The tumor appearance times in these individuals appear to be exponentially distributed and follow, therefore, a straight line if plotted against the cumulative hazard on linear paper, the hazard paper for an exponential failure time distribution. This implies a constant dose independent tumor rate for osteosarcoma induction in the limit of large radiation doses. An expression for tumor rate from a stochastic model, described earlier in detail showing this behavior, is discussed briefly

  19. Estimation of particle size and initial growth kinetics of asphaltene particles using spectral analysis of reservoir fluid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jamaluddin, A.; Joshi, N.; Mullins, O. [Schlumberger Canada Ltd., Calgary, AB (Canada); Creek, J. [Chevron Canada Resources, Calgary, AB (Canada); McFadden, J. [BHD Petroleum, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2002-06-01

    One of the challenges facing heavy oil reservoir management and production operations is to minimize the impact of asphaltene deposition, the most aromatic and heaviest fraction of a crude oil. A study was conducted in which both fixed wavelength near infrared (NIR) and variable wavelength spectral analysis methods were applied to two individual crude oil samples obtained from one reservoir. The objective was to assess asphaltene properties. The samples were collected using 2 different sampling chambers and techniques. Both were homogenized and treated identically. The macroscopic properties of both samples were similar, but the microscopic asphaltene particle properties varied significantly in the asphaltene particle size, as did the formation kinetics between the 2 samples. The paper also presented estimates of asphaltene particle size and initial growth kinetics from the acquired data. The properties were used to determine the basic differences between fluid samples collected using different techniques. 14 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs.

  20. Estimation of growth rates of Escherichia coli BJ4 in streptomycin-treated and previously germfree mice by in situ rRNA hybridization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rang, C U; Licht, T R; Midtvedt, T; Conway, P L; Chao, L; Krogfelt, K A; Cohen, P S; Molin, S

    1999-05-01

    The growth physiology of Escherichia coli during colonization of the intestinal tract was studied with four animal models: the streptomycin-treated mouse carrying a reduced microflora, the monoassociated mouse with no other microflora than the introduced strain, the conventionalized streptomycin-treated mouse, and the conventionalized monoassociated mouse harboring a full microflora. A 23S rRNA fluorescent oligonucleotide probe was used for hybridization to whole E. coli cells fixed directly after being taken from the animals, and the respective growth rates of E. coli BJ4 in the four animal models were estimated by correlating the cellular concentrations of ribosomes with the growth rate of the strain. The growth rates thus estimated from the ribosomal content of E. coli BJ4 in vivo did not differ in the streptomycin-treated and the monoassociated mice. After conventionalization there was a slight decrease of the bacterial growth rates in both animal models.

  1. Body composition estimation using skinfolds in children with and without health conditions affecting growth and body composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendel, Danielle; Weber, David; Leonard, Mary B.; Magge, Sheela N.; Kelly, Andrea; Stallings, Virginia A.; Pipan, Mary; Stettler, Nicolas; Zemel, Babette S.

    2017-01-01

    Background Body composition prediction equations using skinfolds are useful alternatives to advanced techniques, but their utility across diverse pediatric populations is unknown. Aim To evaluate published and new prediction equations across diverse samples of children with health conditions affecting growth and body composition. Subjects and Methods Anthropometric and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) body composition measures were obtained in children with Down syndrome (n=59), Crohn disease (n=128), steroid-sensitive nephrotic syndrome (n=67), and a healthy reference group (n=835). Published body composition equations were evaluated. New equations were developed for ages 3 to 21y using the healthy reference sample and validated in other groups and national survey data. Results Fat mass [FM], fat-free mass [FFM] and percent body fat [%BF]) from published equations were highly correlated with DXA-derived measures (r=0.71 to 0.98), but with poor agreement (mean difference: 2.4kg, −1.9kg, and 6.3% for FM, FFM and %BF). New equations produced similar correlations (r=0.85 to 1.0) with improved agreement for the reference group (0.2kg, 0.4kg, and 0.0% for FM, FFM and %BF, respectively), and in sub-groups. Conclusions New body composition prediction equations show excellent agreement with DXA, and improve body composition estimation in healthy children and those with selected conditions affecting growth. PMID:27121656

  2. Development of a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate the growth parameters of Listeria monocytogenes in minimally processed fresh leafy salads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crépet, Amélie; Stahl, Valérie; Carlin, Frédéric

    2009-05-31

    The optimal growth rate mu(opt) of Listeria monocytogenes in minimally processed (MP) fresh leafy salads was estimated with a hierarchical Bayesian model at (mean+/-standard deviation) 0.33+/-0.16 h(-1). This mu(opt) value was much lower on average than that in nutrient broth, liquid dairy, meat and seafood products (0.7-1.3 h(-1)), and of the same order of magnitude as in cheese. Cardinal temperatures T(min), T(opt) and T(max) were determined at -4.5+/-1.3 degrees C, 37.1+/-1.3 degrees C and 45.4+/-1.2 degrees C respectively. These parameters were determined from 206 growth curves of L. monocytogenes in MP fresh leafy salads (lettuce including iceberg lettuce, broad leaf endive, curly leaf endive, lamb's lettuce, and mixtures of them) selected in the scientific literature and in technical reports. The adequacy of the model was evaluated by comparing observed data (bacterial concentrations at each experimental time for the completion of the 206 growth curves, mean log(10) increase at selected times and temperatures, L. monocytogenes concentrations in naturally contaminated MP iceberg lettuce) with the distribution of the predicted data generated by the model. The sensitivity of the model to assumptions about the prior values also was tested. The observed values mostly fell into the 95% credible interval of the distribution of predicted values. The mu(opt) and its uncertainty determined in this work could be used in quantitative microbial risk assessment for L. monocytogenes in minimally processed fresh leafy salads.

  3. Estimation of Nitrogenase Enzyme Activities and Plant Growth of Legume and Non-legume Inoculated with Diazotrophic Bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salwani S.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Biological Nitrogen Fixation (BNF process benefits the agriculture sector especially for reducing cost of nitrogenfertilizer. In the process, the diazotrophs convert N2 into ammonia (NH3 which is useable by plants. The BNF process iscatalysed by nitrogenase enzyme that involved protons and electrons together with evolution of H2 therefore, theassessment of N2 fixation is also available via H2 production and electron allocation analysis. Thus, the aims of thisexperiment were to estimate the nitrogenase enzyme activities and observe the influence of diazothrophs on growth oflegume (soybean and non legume (rice plants. Host plants were inoculated with respective inocula; Bradyrhizobiumjaponicum (strain 532C for soybean while Azospirillum brasilense (Sp7 and locally isolated diazotroph (isolate 5 forrice. At harvest, the plants were observed for plant growth parameters, H2 evolution, N2 fixation and electron allocationcoefficient (EAC values. The experiment recorded N2 fixation activities of inoculated soybean plants at 141.2 μmol N2 h-1g-1 dry weight nodule, and the evolution of H2 at 144.4 μmol H2 h-1 g-1 dry weight nodule. The electron allocationcoefficient (EAC of soybean was recorded at 0.982. For inoculated rice plants, none of the observations was successfully recorded. However, results for chlorophyll contents and plant dry weight of both plants inoculated with respective inocula were similar to the control treatments supplied with full nitrogen fertilization (+N. The experiment clearly showed that inoculation of diazotrophic bacteria could enhance growth of the host plants similar to plants treated with nitrogenous fertilizer due to efficient N2 fixation process

  4. Contraceptive Failure in the United States: Estimates from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundaram, Aparna; Vaughan, Barbara; Kost, Kathryn; Bankole, Akinrinola; Finer, Lawrence; Singh, Susheela; Trussell, James

    2017-03-01

    Contraceptive failure rates measure a woman's probability of becoming pregnant while using a contraceptive. Information about these rates enables couples to make informed contraceptive choices. Failure rates were last estimated for 2002, and social and economic changes that have occurred since then necessitate a reestimation. To estimate failure rates for the most commonly used reversible methods in the United States, data from the 2006-2010 National Survey of Family Growth were used; some 15,728 contraceptive use intervals, contributed by 6,683 women, were analyzed. Data from the Guttmacher Institute's 2008 Abortion Patient Survey were used to adjust for abortion underreporting. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to estimate the associated single-decrement probability of failure by duration of use. Failure rates were compared with those from 1995 and 2002. Long-acting reversible contraceptives (the IUD and the implant) had the lowest failure rates of all methods (1%), while condoms and withdrawal carried the highest probabilities of failure (13% and 20%, respectively). However, the failure rate for the condom had declined significantly since 1995 (from 18%), as had the failure rate for all hormonal methods combined (from 8% to 6%). The failure rate for all reversible methods combined declined from 12% in 2002 to 10% in 2006-2010. These broad-based declines in failure rates reverse a long-term pattern of minimal change. Future research should explore what lies behind these trends, as well as possibilities for further improvements. © 2017 The Authors. Perspectives on Sexual and Reproductive Health published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Guttmacher Institute.

  5. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  6. Handbook on loss reserving

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidt, Klaus; Schnaus, Anja

    2016-01-01

    This handbook presents the basic aspects of actuarial loss reserving. Besides the traditional methods, it also includes a description of more recent ones and a discussion of certain problems occurring in actuarial practice, like inflation, scarce data, large claims, slow loss development, the use of market statistics, the need for simulation techniques and the task of calculating best estimates and ranges of future losses. In property and casualty insurance the provisions for payment obligations from losses that have occurred but have not yet been settled usually constitute the largest item on the liabilities side of an insurer's balance sheet. For this reason, the determination and evaluation of these loss reserves is of considerable economic importance for every property and casualty insurer. Actuarial students, academics as well as practicing actuaries will benefit from this overview of the most important actuarial methods of loss reserving by developing an understanding of the underlying stochastic models...

  7. Hydrocarbon Reserves: Abundance or Scarcity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    IFP and the OAPEC jointly organize a regular international seminar dealing with world oil-related problems appearing in the news. For the first time, this seminar has been opened to oil and gas company specialists, service companies, research centers and independents. This year's theme concerns oil and gas reserves: are they abundant or are we headed towards the shortages announced by some experts? This theme is especially topical in that: oil and gas currently meet two thirds of world energy needs and almost completely dominate the transport sector; the reserves declared by the OAPEC countries account for nearly half of world reserves; the price of a barrel of oil went through the roof in 2004; world energy demand is growing fast and alternative sources of energy are far from ready to take over from oil and gas in the next few decades. Since the reserves correspond to the volume it is technically and economically viable to produce, the seminar has, of course, dealt with the technical and economic questions that arise in connection with exploration and production, but it has also considered changes in the geopolitical context. Presentations by the leading companies of the OAPEC countries and by the IFP group were completed by presentation from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the IHS Energy Group, Total and Gaz de France. This document gathers the transparencies of the following presentations: Hydrocarbon reserves in OAPEC members countries: current and future (M. Al-Lababidi); Non OAPEC liquid reserves and production forecasts (Y. Mathieu); World oil and gas resources and production outlook (K. Chew); Global investments in the upstream (F. Birol); Total's policy in the oil and gas sector (C. de Margerie); Gaz de France's policy in the oil and gas sector (J. Abiteboul); NOC/IOC's opportunities in OPEC countries (I. Sandrea); Relationships between companies, countries and investors: How they may impact on the growth

  8. Hydrocarbon Reserves: Abundance or Scarcity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    impact on the growth of reserves and resources (H. Le Leuch); Additional reserves: the role of new technologies - A global perspective on EORIOR (G. Fries); - Updating reservoir models with dynamic data and uncertainty quantification: an integrated approach (F. Roggero); Seismic technology for the OAPEC countries (P. Canal); Exploration knowledge and technologies: impact of progress - Statistical results (N. Alazard); Stratigraphic modelling as a key to find new potentialities in exploration (D. Granjeon); Modelling hydrocarbon migration as a tool for reserve estimation (J-L. Rudkiewicz); The contribution of surface and near surface geology to hydrocarbon discoveries (S.M. Kumati); Contribution of the exploration activity in renewing reserves - The case of Algeria (R. Lounissi); Egypt's petroleum hydrocarbon potential (H. Hataba); Future of hydrocarbon reserves in Syria (T. Hemsh); Natural gas, the fuel of choice for decades to com (M.F. Chabrelie); The role and importance of Arab natural gas in world market (M. Al-Lababidi); LNG and GTL: two pathways for natural gas utilization (C. Cameron); Yet to find hydrocarbon potential (S. Al Menhali); Libyan context of hydrocarbon reserves: abundance or scarcity? (M. Elazi)

  9. Growth rates and age at adult size of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta in the Mediterranean Sea, estimated through capture-mark-recapture records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Casale

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Growth rates of the juvenile phase of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta were estimated for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea from capture-mark-recapture records. Thirty-eight turtles were released from Italian coasts and re-encountered after 1.0-10.9 years in the period 1986-2007. Their mean CCL (curved carapace length ranged from 32.5 to 82.0 cm and they showed variable growth rates, ranging from 0 to 5.97 cm/yr (mean: 2.5. The association between annual growth rate and three covariates (mean year, mean size and time interval was investigated through a non-parametric modelling approach. Only mean size showed a clear effect on growth rate, described by a monotonic declining curve. Variability indicates that factors not included in the model, probably individual-related ones, have an important effect on growth rates. Based on the monotonic decreasing growth function which indicates no growth spurt, a von Bertalanffy growth function was used to estimate the time required by turtles to grow within the observed size range. The results indicate that turtles would take 16-28 years to reach 66.5-84.7 cm CCL, the average nesting female sizes observed at the most important Mediterranean nesting sites, which can be considered an approximation of the size at maturity.

  10. Growth parameters estimates of Maurolicus stehmanni Parin & Kobyliansky 1996 (Teleostei, Sternoptichydae from south and southeastern Brazilian waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre Bellucco

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper on the otolith microstructure analysis of Maurolicus stehmanni presents estimates of the species growth parameters and longevity. The species inhabits the outer shelf and slope of the southern and southeastern Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ. Growth parameters are important for the knowledge of the species' life history and rational management. M. stehmanni constitutes an important link between the initial and final components of the alimentary chain of the open sea ecosystem, being one of the main food items for squids and large pelagic fish. Among the various applied methods those which presented the most coherent values for growth parameters and were best adapted to the von Bertallanfy's equation were: Li= 55mm K= 0.0088/day and to= 5.5 days Maurolicus stehmanni's longevity is of less than one year (around 220 days and the sagita daily otolith rings are useful for the determination of its age.Este estudo, baseado na análise da microestrutura dos otólitos de Maurolicus stehmanni, apresenta estimativas dos parâmetros de crescimento e longevidade para esta espécie que habita a plataforma externa e o talude da ZEE sul-sudeste do Brasil. Estes parâmetros são importantes para o conhecimento da estratégia de vida da espécie e para o manejo deste recurso, que constitui um importante elo entre os componentes iniciais e finais da teia alimentar no ecossistema de mar aberto, sendo um dos principais itens na dieta das lulas e grandes peixes pelágicos. Dentre os vários métodos aplicados, os valores dos parâmetros de crescimento mais coerentes com a estratégia da espécie e que melhor se ajustaram à equação de von Bertallanfy foram: Li= 55mm K= 0.0088/dia e to= 5.5 dias. A espécie vive cerca de 220 dias e as marcas diárias nos otólitos sagita são apropriadas para a determinação da idade.

  11. Estimation of breed and heterosis effects for growth and carcass traits in cattle using published crossbreeding studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, J L; Aguilar, I; Rekaya, R; Bertrand, J K

    2010-02-01

    Current genetic evaluations are performed separately for each breed. Multiple breed genetic evaluations, however, assume a common base among breeds, enabling producers to compare cattle of different breed makeup. Breed and heterosis effects are needed in a multibreed evaluation because databases maintained by breed associations include few crossbred animals, which may not be enough to accurately estimate these effects. The objective of this study was to infer breed effects, maternal effects, direct heterosis effects, and maternal heterosis effects for growth and carcass traits using least squares means estimates from crossbreeding studies published in the literature from 1976 to 1996. The data set was formed by recording each least squares mean along with the breed composition, maternal breed composition, and direct and maternal heterozygosity. Each trait was analyzed using a single trait fixed effect model, which included study as a fixed effect and breed composition and heterozygosity as covariates. Breed solutions for each trait were expressed relative to the Angus breed. Direct breed effects for weaning weight ranged from -7.0 +/- 0.67 kg (British Dairy) to 29.3 +/- 0.74 kg (Simmental), and maternal effects ranged from -11.7 +/- 0.24 kg (Hereford) to 31.1 +/- 2.22 kg (Gelbvieh). Direct breed effects for birth weight ranged from -0.5 +/- 0.14 kg (British Dairy) to 10.1 +/- 0.46 kg (Continental Beef), and maternal effects ranged from -7.2 +/- 0.13 kg (Brahman) to 6.0 +/- 1.07 kg (Continental Beef). Direct breed effects ranged from -17.9 +/- 1.64 kg (Brahman) to 21.6 +/- 1.95 kg (Charolais), from -6.5 +/- 1.29 kg (Brahman) to 55.8 +/- 1.47 kg (Continental Beef), from -8.1 +/- 0.48 cm(2) (Shorthorn) to 21.0 +/- 0.48 cm(2) (Continental Beef), and from -1.1 +/- 0.02 cm (Continental Beef) to 0 +/- 0.00 cm (Angus) for postweaning BW gain, carcass weight, LM area, and fat thickness, respectively. The use of literature estimates to predict direct and maternal breed and

  12. C-Terminal to Intact Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 Ratio in Relation to Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Elderly Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Bożentowicz-Wikarek

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: An analytical equivalence between intact fibroblasts growth factor(iFGF23 and C-terminal(cFGF23 assays is logically expected, however, numerous studies demonstrate lack of a strong association between them. Previously, we have demonstrated the increase in cFGF23 slightly precedes the increase of iFGF23 with the impairment of kidney excretory function; without actually analyzing the ratio between both assays, which are postulated to be affected by declining kidney function. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyze the ratio between C and iFGF23 in relation to the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR in an elderly population. Methods: We analysed the variability of c/iFGF23 ratio in the population of 3264 elderly PolSenior study participants (≥ 65years in the relation to eGFR calculated according full Modification of Diet in Renal Disease, serum levels of C-reactive protein (hs-CRP, and iron. Results: The log10(c/i FGF23 ratio increased in the subsequent CKD stages. Serum iron and CRP levels reduced the log10 and increased it with age in multivariate regression analysis. Conclusions: Our results suggest impairment in the cleavage of the C-terminal FGF23 fragments with the deterioration of kidney excretory function and age in the elderly population. Inflammation and low serum iron level seems to diminish degradation capacity of FGF23 fragments.

  13. 10 years anniversary of the Poles'e state radioecological reserve (collected articles)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parfenov, V.I.

    1998-01-01

    The results of long time investigations of radionuclide contamination dynamics of soils, flora and fauna conducted by research workers of the reserve and National Academy of Sciences of Belarus on the territory of the reserve are offered. The different aspects of plant growth and animal behaviour in new ecological conditions are estimated

  14. Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

    2011-05-01

    Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi

  15. Temperature effect on bacterial growth rate: quantitative microbiology approach including cardinal values and variability estimates to perform growth simulation on/in food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Membré, J.M.; Leporq, B.; Vialette, M.; Mettler, E.; Perrier, L.; Thuault, D.; Zwietering, M.H.

    2005-01-01

    Temperature effect on growth rates of Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella, Escherichia coli, Clostridium perfringens and Bacillus cereus, was studied. Growth rates were obtained in laboratory medium by using a binary dilutions method in which 15 optical density curves were generated to determine one

  16. MODEL-ASSISTED ESTIMATION OF THE GENETIC VARIABILITY IN PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS RELATED TO TOMATO FRUIT GROWTH UNDER CONTRASTED WATER CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Constantinescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Drought stress is a major abiotic stres threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding Drought stress is a major abiotic stress threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding mechanisms governing water and carbon accumulations and identifying genes, QTLs and phenotypes, that will enable trade-offs between fruit growth and quality under Water Deficit (WD condition is a crucial challenge for breeders and growers. In the present work, 117 recombinant inbred lines of a population of Solanum lycopersicum were phenotyped under control and WD conditions. Plant water status, fruit growth and composition were measured and data were used to calibrate a process-based model describing water and carbon fluxes in a growing fruit as a function of plant and environment. Eight genotype-dependent model parameters were estimated using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm in order to minimize the prediction errors of fruit dry and fresh mass throughout fruit development. WD increased the fruit dry matter content (up to 85 % and decreased its fresh weight (up to 60 %, big fruit size genotypes being the most sensitive. The mean normalized root mean squared errors of the predictions ranged between 16-18 % in the population. Variability in model genotypic parameters allowed us to explore diverse genetic strategies in response to WD. An interesting group of genotypes could be discriminated in which i the low loss of fresh mass under WD was associated with high active uptake of sugars and low value of the maximum cell wall extensibility, and ii the high dry matter content in control treatment (C was associated with a slow decrease of mass flow. Using 501 SNP markers genotyped across the genome, a QTL analysis of model parameters allowed to detect three main QTLs related to xylem and phloem conductivities, on chromosomes 2, 4 and 8. The model was then applied to design ideotypes with high dry matter

  17. Aspartic acid racemization rate in narwhal (Monodon monoceros) eye lens nuclei estimated by counting of growth layers in tusks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, Eva; Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter; Ditlevsen, Susanne

    2012-01-01

    estimated: one by linear regression (r2=0.98) based on the assumption that age was known without error, and one based on a bootstrap study, taking into account the uncertainty in the age estimation (r2 between 0.88 and 0.98). The two estimated 2kAsp values were identical up to two significant figures. The 2......) technique has been used in age estimation studies of cetaceans, including narwhals. The purpose of this study was to estimate a species-specific racemization rate for narwhals by regressing aspartic acid D/L ratios in eye lens nuclei against growth layer groups in tusks (n=9). Two racemization rates were...

  18. Radiocarbon Dating of an Olive Tree Cross-Section: New Insights on Growth Patterns and Implications for Age Estimation of Olive Trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, Yael; Regev, Lior; Kerem, Zohar; Boaretto, Elisabetta

    2017-01-01

    The age of living massive olive trees is often assumed to be between hundreds and even thousands of years. These estimations are usually based on the girth of the trunk and an extrapolation based on a theoretical annual growth rate. It is difficult to objectively verify these claims, as a monumental tree may not be cut down for analysis of its cross-section. In addition, the inner and oldest part of the trunk in olive trees usually rots, precluding the possibility of carting out radiocarbon analysis of material from the first years of life of the tree. In this work we present a cross-section of an olive tree, previously estimated to be hundreds of years old, which was cut down post-mortem in 2013. The cross-section was radiocarbon dated at numerous points following the natural growth pattern, which was made possible to observe by viewing the entire cross-section. Annual growth rate values were calculated and compared between different radii. The cross-section also revealed a nearly independent segment of growth, which would clearly offset any estimations based solely on girth calculations. Multiple piths were identified, indicating the beginning of branching within the trunk. Different radii were found to have comparable growth rates, resulting in similar estimates dating the piths to the 19th century. The estimated age of the piths represent a terminus ante quem for the age of the tree, as these are piths of separate branches. However, the tree is likely not many years older than the dated piths, and certainly not centuries older. The oldest radiocarbon-datable material in this cross-section was less than 200 years old, which is in agreement with most other radiocarbon dates of internal wood from living olive trees, rarely older than 300 years.

  19. Radiocarbon Dating of an Olive Tree Cross-Section: New Insights on Growth Patterns and Implications for Age Estimation of Olive Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yael Ehrlich

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The age of living massive olive trees is often assumed to be between hundreds and even thousands of years. These estimations are usually based on the girth of the trunk and an extrapolation based on a theoretical annual growth rate. It is difficult to objectively verify these claims, as a monumental tree may not be cut down for analysis of its cross-section. In addition, the inner and oldest part of the trunk in olive trees usually rots, precluding the possibility of carting out radiocarbon analysis of material from the first years of life of the tree. In this work we present a cross-section of an olive tree, previously estimated to be hundreds of years old, which was cut down post-mortem in 2013. The cross-section was radiocarbon dated at numerous points following the natural growth pattern, which was made possible to observe by viewing the entire cross-section. Annual growth rate values were calculated and compared between different radii. The cross-section also revealed a nearly independent segment of growth, which would clearly offset any estimations based solely on girth calculations. Multiple piths were identified, indicating the beginning of branching within the trunk. Different radii were found to have comparable growth rates, resulting in similar estimates dating the piths to the 19th century. The estimated age of the piths represent a terminus ante quem for the age of the tree, as these are piths of separate branches. However, the tree is likely not many years older than the dated piths, and certainly not centuries older. The oldest radiocarbon-datable material in this cross-section was less than 200 years old, which is in agreement with most other radiocarbon dates of internal wood from living olive trees, rarely older than 300 years.

  20. A practical application of the geological and mining characterization method to the “Rosa Porriño” deposit (Galicia, Spain). Quality cartography and estimation of the distribution of reserves for mining exploitation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrero Arias, A.; Taboada Castro, J.; Iglesias Comesaña, C.; Baltuille Martín, J.M.; Giráldez Pérez, E.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the “Rosa Porriño” granite, which is known worldwide and has been marketed for more than 50 years, through the application of geologic-mining techniques. These techniques are widely used for analysing rock masses with the aim of commercially exploiting them. The basis is the general criteria for the characterization of geological and mining parameters: the lithologies present and their distribution, types and location of fractures, the industrial quality of the rock and the location of the exploitable rock volumes, previous activity, planning possibilities and rationalization of the exploitation, to name a few. This geological and mining information was used to make a map of the industrial qualities, forming the basis for the estimation of reserves and their distribution within the deposit. The application of geostatistical techniques allowed the definition of the three dimensions and thus the existing volumes corresponding to each industrial quality (defined in the geological-mining cartography). Four different qualities were defined and their volumes estimated, namely first and second qualities for granite suitable for its use as ornamental stone or other applications of high added value; third quality for the granite suitable for its use as a construction material (generally of smaller volume than the previous qualities) and the fourth quality for the granite for aggregates. The overburden zones were determined as well. Once the reserves of the qualities and their spatial distribution within the deposit are known, different alternatives for a rational exploitation can be considered for the existing operating units. This modelling enables a more effective and efficient mining operation, with controlled, lower environmental impact and thus with a more sustainable exploitation of the mining resources. [es

  1. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A (H1N1 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chowell Gerardo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In many parts of the world, the exponential growth rate of infections during the initial epidemic phase has been used to make statistical inferences on the reproduction number, R, a summary measure of the transmission potential for the novel influenza A (H1N1 2009. The growth rate at the initial stage of the epidemic in Japan led to estimates for R in the range 2.0 to 2.6, capturing the intensity of the initial outbreak among school-age children in May 2009. Methods An updated estimate of R that takes into account the epidemic data from 29 May to 14 July is provided. An age-structured renewal process is employed to capture the age-dependent transmission dynamics, jointly estimating the reproduction number, the age-dependent susceptibility and the relative contribution of imported cases to secondary transmission. Pitfalls in estimating epidemic growth rates are identified and used for scrutinizing and re-assessing the results of our earlier estimate of R. Results Maximum likelihood estimates of R using the data from 29 May to 14 July ranged from 1.21 to 1.35. The next-generation matrix, based on our age-structured model, predicts that only 17.5% of the population will experience infection by the end of the first pandemic wave. Our earlier estimate of R did not fully capture the population-wide epidemic in quantifying the next-generation matrix from the estimated growth rate during the initial stage of the pandemic in Japan. Conclusions In order to quantify R from the growth rate of cases, it is essential that the selected model captures the underlying transmission dynamics embedded in the data. Exploring additional epidemiological information will be useful for assessing the temporal dynamics. Although the simple concept of R is more easily grasped by the general public than that of the next-generation matrix, the matrix incorporating detailed information (e.g., age-specificity is essential for reducing the levels of

  2. Weight-for-length/height growth curves for children and adolescents in China in comparison with body mass index in prevalence estimates of malnutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong, Xinnan; Li, Hui; Zhang, Yaqin; Wu, Huahong

    2017-05-01

    It is important to update weight-for-length/height growth curves in China and re-examine their performance in screening malnutrition. To develop weight-for-length/height growth curves for Chinese children and adolescents. A total of 94 302 children aged 0-19 years with complete sex, age, weight and length/height data were obtained from two cross-sectional large-scaled national surveys in China. Weight-for-length/height growth curves were constructed using the LMS method before and after average spermarcheal/menarcheal ages, respectively. Screening performance in prevalence estimates of wasting, overweight and obesity was compared between weight-for-height and body mass index (BMI) criteria based on a test population of 21 416 children aged 3-18. The smoothed weight-for-length percentiles and Z-scores growth curves with length 46-110 cm for both sexes and weight-for-height with height 70-180 cm for boys and 70-170 cm for girls were established. The weight-for-height and BMI-for-age had strong correlation in screening wasting, overweight and obesity in each age-sex group. There was no striking difference in prevalence estimates of wasting, overweight and obesity between two indicators except for obesity prevalence at ages 6-11. This set of smoothed weight-for-length/height growth curves may be useful in assessing nutritional status from infants to post-pubertal adolescents.

  3. Regional and seasonal differences in growth of larval North Sea herring (clupea harengus L.) estimated by otolith microstructure analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munk, Peter; Heath, Mike; Skaarup, Bo

    1991-01-01

    between larval length and otolith ring structure within defined geographical regions and restricted periods of time. The analysis indicates a 45% decrease in growth rates through the autumn/winter period along with a substantial difference between southern and northern areas, the growth rates in the south...

  4. Inter-lab comparison of precision and recommended methods for age estimation of Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris using growth layer groups in earbones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Brill

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Manatees are routinely aged by counting Growth Layer Groups (GLGs in periotic bones (earbones. Manatee carcasses recovered in Florida between 1974 and 2010 provided age-estimation material for three readers and formed the base for a retrospective analysis of aging precision (repeatability. All readers were in good agreement (high precision with the greatest apparent source of variation being the result of earbone remodelling with increasing manatee age. Over the same period, methods of sample preparation and of determining a final age estimate changed. We examined the effects of altering methods on ease of reading GLGs and found no statistical differences. Accurate age estimates are an important component for effective management of the species and for better models of population trends and we summarize the currently recommended methods for estimating manatee ages using earbones.

  5. Towards a Quantitative Use of Satellite Remote Sensing in Crop Growth Models for Large Scale Agricultural Production Estimate (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defourny, P.

    2013-12-01

    such the Green Area Index (GAI), fAPAR and fcover usually retrieved from MODIS, MERIS, SPOT-Vegetation described the quality of the green vegetation development. The GLOBAM (Belgium) and EU FP-7 MOCCCASIN projects (Russia) improved the standard products and were demonstrated over large scale. The GAI retrieved from MODIS time series using a purity index criterion depicted successfully the inter-annual variability. Furthermore, the quantitative assimilation of these GAI time series into a crop growth model improved the yield estimate over years. These results showed that the GAI assimilation works best at the district or provincial level. In the context of the GEO Ag., the Joint Experiment of Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) was designed to enable the global agricultural monitoring community to compare such methods and results over a variety of regional cropping systems. For a network of test sites around the world, satellite and field measurements are currently collected and will be made available for collaborative effort. This experiment should facilitate international standards for data products and reporting, eventually supporting the development of a global system of systems for agricultural crop assessment and monitoring.

  6. Improvement of Parameter Estimations in Tumor Growth Inhibition Models on Xenografted Animals: Handling Sacrifice Censoring and Error Caused by Experimental Measurement on Larger Tumor Sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierrillas, Philippe B; Tod, Michel; Amiel, Magali; Chenel, Marylore; Henin, Emilie

    2016-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the impact of censoring due to animal sacrifice on parameter estimates and tumor volume calculated from two diameters in larger tumors during tumor growth experiments in preclinical studies. The type of measurement error that can be expected was also investigated. Different scenarios were challenged using the stochastic simulation and estimation process. One thousand datasets were simulated under the design of a typical tumor growth study in xenografted mice, and then, eight approaches were used for parameter estimation with the simulated datasets. The distribution of estimates and simulation-based diagnostics were computed for comparison. The different approaches were robust regarding the choice of residual error and gave equivalent results. However, by not considering missing data induced by sacrificing the animal, parameter estimates were biased and led to false inferences in terms of compound potency; the threshold concentration for tumor eradication when ignoring censoring was 581 ng.ml(-1), but the true value was 240 ng.ml(-1).

  7. Analysis of turbulence and surface growth models on the estimation of soot level in ethylene non-premixed flames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yunardi, Y.; Munawar, Edi; Rinaldi, Wahyu; Razali, Asbar; Iskandar, Elwina; Fairweather, M.

    2018-02-01

    Soot prediction in a combustion system has become a subject of attention, as many factors influence its accuracy. An accurate temperature prediction will likely yield better soot predictions, since the inception, growth and destruction of the soot are affected by the temperature. This paper reported the study on the influences of turbulence closure and surface growth models on the prediction of soot levels in turbulent flames. The results demonstrated that a substantial distinction was observed in terms of temperature predictions derived using the k-ɛ and the Reynolds stress models, for the two ethylene flames studied here amongst the four types of surface growth rate model investigated, the assumption of the soot surface growth rate proportional to the particle number density, but independent on the surface area of soot particles, f ( A s ) = ρ N s , yields in closest agreement with the radial data. Without any adjustment to the constants in the surface growth term, other approaches where the surface growth directly proportional to the surface area and square root of surface area, f ( A s ) = A s and f ( A s ) = √ A s , result in an under- prediction of soot volume fraction. These results suggest that predictions of soot volume fraction are sensitive to the modelling of surface growth.

  8. Estimating Common Growth Patterns in Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from Diverse Genetic Stocks and a Large Spatial Extent.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascale A L Goertler

    Full Text Available Life history variation in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp. supports species resilience to natural disturbances and fishery exploitation. Within salmon species, life-history variation often manifests during freshwater and estuarine rearing, as variation in growth. To date, however, characterizing variability in growth patterns within and among individuals has been difficult via conventional sampling methods because of the inability to obtain repeated size measurements. In this study we related otolith microstructures to growth rates of individual juvenile Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha from the Columbia River estuary over a two-year period (2010-2012. We used dynamic factor analysis to determine whether there were common patterns in growth rates within juveniles based on their natal region, capture location habitat type, and whether they were wild or of hatchery origin. We identified up to five large-scale trends in juvenile growth rates depending on month and year of capture. We also found that hatchery fish had a narrower range of trend loadings for some capture groups, suggesting that hatchery fish do not express the same breadth of growth variability as wild fish. However, we were unable to resolve a relationship between specific growth patterns and habitat transitions. Our study exemplifies how a relatively new statistical analysis can be applied to dating or aging techniques to summarize individual variation, and characterize aspects of life history diversity.

  9. Estimation of soil salt content (SSC) in the Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve (ELWNNR), Northwest China, based on a Bootstrap-BP neural network model and optimal spectral indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoping; Zhang, Fei; Ding, Jianli; Kung, Hsiang-Te; Latif, Aamir; Johnson, Verner C

    2018-02-15

    Soil salinity is recognized worldwide as a major threat to agriculture, particularly in arid regions. Producers and decision-makers thus require updated and accurate maps of salinity in agronomical and environmentally relevant regions. The goals of this study were to test various regression models for estimating soil salt content based on hyperspectral data, HJ-CCD images, and Landsat OLI data using; develop optimal band Difference Index (DI), Ratio Index (RI), and Normalization Index (NDI) algorithms for monitoring soil salt content using image and spectral data; and to compare the performances of the proposed models using a Bootstrap-BP neural network model (Bootstrap-BPNN) from different data sources. The results showed that previously published optimal remote sensing parameters can be applied to estimate the soil salt content in the Ebinur Lake Wetland National Nature Reserve (ELWNNR). Optimal band combination indices based on DI, RI, and NDI were developed for different data sources. Then, the Bootstrap-BP neural network model was built using 1000 groups of Bootstrap samples of remote sensing indices (DI, RI and NDI) and soil salt content. When verifying the accuracy of hyperspectral data, the model yields an R 2 value of 0.95, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 4.38g/kg, and a residual predictive deviation (RPD) of 3.36. The optimal model for remote sensing images was the first derivative model of Landsat OLI, which yielded R 2 value of 0.91, RMSE of 4.82g/kg, and RPD of 3.32; these data indicated that this model has a high predictive ability. When comparing the salinization monitoring accuracy of satellite images to that of ground hyperspectral data, the accuracy of the first derivative of the Landsat OLI model was close to that of the hyperspectral parameter model. Soil salt content was inverted using the first derivative of the Landsat OLI model in the study area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Inter-lab comparison of precision and recommended methods for age estimation of Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) using growth layer groups in earbones

    OpenAIRE

    Brill, Katherine; Marmontel, Miriam; Bolen-Richardson, Meghan; Stewart, Robert EA

    2016-01-01

    Manatees are routinely aged by counting Growth Layer Groups (GLGs) in periotic bones (earbones). Manatee carcasses recovered in Florida between 1974 and 2010 provided age-estimation material for three readers and formed the base for a retrospective analysis of aging precision (repeatability). All readers were in good agreement (high precision) with the greatest apparent source of variation being the result of earbone remodelling with increasing manatee age. Over the same period, methods of sa...

  11. Estimation of Winter Wheat Yield with the Assimilation of FY-3 MERSI Data into the WOFOST Crop Growth Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wenbo; Fan, Jinlong

    2014-11-01

    Taking the winter wheat planting area Taihang piedmont as object of the study, and based on WOFST model and FY Satellite 250m-resolution MERSI data, this article launched the assimilation yield estimation study on winter wheat. Firstly, MERSI-LAI data is inversed from the measured biophysics data and MERSI data of winter wheat in growing season within the study area; next, WOFOST model sensitivity analysis was developed and conduct assimilation yield estimation through MERSI-LAI built by SCE algorithm and the minimum cost function of model simulation LAI; finally, conduct comparison validation between the estimation results and MODIS-LAI assimilation yield estimation results as well as the statistical data. The conclusion has been drawn that the estimation accuracy based on FY-3 MERSI data assimilation is higher than that based on MODIS data assimilation, with the RMES being reduced by 750.20kg/ha, and the yield being closer to the statistics.

  12. FlorNExT®, a cloud computing application to estimate growth and yield of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in Northeastern Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreiro, S.; Rua, J.; Tomé, M.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study. To introduce and describe FlorNExT®, a free cloud computing application to estimate growth and yield of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) even-aged stands in the Northeast of Portugal (NE Portugal). Area of study: NE Portugal. Material and methods: FlorNExT® implements a dynamic growth and yield modelling framework which integrates transition functions for dominant height (site index curves) and basal area, as well as output functions for tree and stand volume, biomass, and carbon content. Main results: FlorNExT® is freely available from any device with an Internet connection at: http://flornext.esa.ipb.pt/. Research highlights: This application has been designed to make it possible for any stakeholder to easily estimate standing volume, biomass, and carbon content in maritime pine stands from stand data, as well as to estimate growth and yield based on four stand variables: age, density, dominant height, and basal area. FlorNExT® allows planning thinning treatments. FlorNExT® is a fundamental tool to support forest mobilization at local and regional scales in NE Portugal. (Author)

  13. EucaTool®, a cloud computing application for estimating the growth and production of Eucalyptus globulus Labill. plantations in Galicia (NW Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Rojo-Alboreca

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: To present the software utilities and explain how to use EucaTool®, a free cloud computing application developed to estimate the growth and production of seedling and clonal blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill. plantations in Galicia (NW Spain.Area of study: Galicia (NW Spain.Material and methods: EucaTool® implements a dynamic growth and production model that is valid for clonal and non-clonal blue gum plantations in the region. The model integrates transition functions for dominant height (site index curves, number of stems per hectare (mortality function and basal area, as well as output functions for tree and stand volume, biomass and carbon content.Main results: EucaTool® can be freely accessed from any device with an Internet connection, from http://app.eucatool.com. In addition, useful information about the application is published on a related website: http://www.eucatool.com.Research highlights: The application has been designed to enable forest stakeholders to estimate volume, biomass and carbon content of forest plantations from individual trees, diameter classes or stand data, as well as to estimate growth and future production (indicating the optimal rotation age for maximum income by measurement of only four stand variables: age, number of trees per hectare, dominant height and basal area.Keywords: forest management; biomass; seedling; clones; blue gum; forest tool.

  14. Risk spreading, connectivity, and optimal reserve spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blowes, Shane A; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-01-01

    Two important processes determining the dynamics of spatially structured populations are dispersal and the spatial covariance of demographic fluctuations. Spatially explicit approaches to conservation, such as reserve networks, must consider the tension between these two processes and reach a balance between distances near enough to maintain connectivity, but far enough to benefit from risk spreading. Here, we model this trade-off. We show how two measures of metapopulation persistence depend on the shape of the dispersal kernel and the shape of the distance decay in demographic covariance, and we consider the implications of this trade-off for reserve spacing. The relative rates of distance decay in dispersal and demographic covariance determine whether the long-run metapopulation growth rate, and quasi-extinction risk, peak for adjacent patches or intermediately spaced patches; two local maxima in metapopulation persistence are also possible. When dispersal itself fluctuates over time, the trade-off changes. Temporal variation in mean distance that propagules are dispersed (i.e., propagule advection) decreases metapopulation persistence and decreases the likelihood that persistence will peak for adjacent patches. Conversely, variation in diffusion (the extent of random spread around mean dispersal) increases metapopulation persistence overall and causes it to peak at shorter inter-patch distances. Thus, failure to consider temporal variation in dispersal processes increases the risk that reserve spacings will fail to meet the objective of ensuring metapopulation persistence. This study identifies two phenomena that receive relatively little attention in empirical work on reserve spacing, but that can qualitatively change the effectiveness of reserve spacing strategies: (1) the functional form of the distance decay in covariance among patch-specific demographic rates and (2) temporal variation in the shape of the dispersal kernel. The sensitivity of metapopulation

  15. Estimation of the relationship between growth, consumption, and energy allocation in juvenile pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) as a function of temperature and ration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreenivasan, Ashwin; Heintz, Ron

    2016-10-01

    Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) are generalist predators in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), and are an important predator on other commercially important species. Efficient management of this species can benefit by knowing how these fish adapt to changing environmental conditions, with a focus on how growth and condition are affected by changes in temperature and diet. We conducted a feeding study to understand the relationship between growth, ration, and temperature, and how these factors interact to affect energy allocation strategies. Since growth and condition of juveniles can determine recruitment into the population, this study focused on growth and consumption of age 1+Pacific cod held over 4 temperature treatments (4 °C, 8 °C, 12 °C, and 16 °C) and 3 ration levels (unlimited ration, medium ration, and low ration). We also compared cellular nucleic acid (RNA/DNA) ratios, an instantaneous growth index, total-body lipid, and proximate composition between fish. At 4 °C, 8 °C, and 12 °C, fish at medium and low rations had higher growth rates relative to fish at high rations. Higher food consumption appears to negatively affect digestive ability, assimilation efficiency, and nutrient utilization. RNA/DNA was clearly correlated with growth rates at 4 °C and 8 °C, but this relationship did not hold at higher temperatures. A secondary growth study was conducted to test the reliability of the growth/consumption models derived from the main growth study. Temperature influenced energy reserves (lipid) while tissue growth (protein) was influenced by ration level. Average lipid values were higher at 4 °C than at 8 °C or 12 °C, suggesting a predisposition to heightened lipid synthesis at colder temperatures. Longer durations of warmer water temperature in the GOA could consequently affect energy allocation strategies, with dietary changes in the field potentially amplifying this effect in cold and warm years. This energy allocation strategy could be detrimental

  16. A comparison of methods for the non-destructive fresh weight determination of filamentous algae for growth rate analysis and dry weight estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Michael E; Stanley, Michele S; Day, John G; Semião, Andrea J C

    2017-01-01

    The determination of rates of macroalgal growth and productivity via temporal fresh weight (FW) measurements is attractive, as it does not necessitate the sacrifice of biomass. However, there is no standardised method for FW analysis; this may lead to potential discrepancies when determining growth rates or productivity and make literature comparison problematic. This study systematically assessed a variety of lab-scale methods for macroalgal FW measurement for growth rate determination. Method efficacy was assessed over a 14-day period as impact upon algal physiology, growth rate on basis of FW and dry weight (DW), nitrate removal, and maintenance of structural integrity. The choice of method is critical to both accuracy and inter-study comparability of the data generated. In this study, it was observed that the choice of protocol had an impact upon the DW yield ( P values = 0.036-0.51). For instance, those involving regular mechanical pressing resulted in a >25% reduction in the final DW in two of the three species studied when compared to algae not subjected to any treatment. This study proposes a standardised FW determination method employing a reticulated spinner that is rapid, reliable, and non-destructive and provides an accurate growth estimation.

  17. Bioenergetic model estimates of interannual and spatial patterns in consumption demand and growth potential of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in the Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, J.H.; Beauchamp, D.A.; Cross, A.D.; Farley, E.V.; Murphy, J.M.; Helle, J.H.; Walker, R.V.; Myers, K.W.

    2009-01-01

    A bioenergetic model of juvenile pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) was used to estimate daily prey consumption and growth potential of four ocean habitats in the Gulf of Alaska during 2001 and 2002. Growth potential was not significantly higher in 2002 than in 2001 at an alpha level of 0.05 (P=0.073). Average differences in growth potential across habitats were minimal (slope habitat=0.844 g d-1, shelf habitat=0.806 g d-1, offshore habitat=0.820 g d-1, and nearshore habitat=0.703 g d-1) and not significantly different (P=0.630). Consumption demand differed significantly between hatchery and wild stocks (P=0.035) when examined within year due to the interaction between hatchery verses wild origin and year. However, the overall effect of origin across years was not significant (P=0.705) due to similar total amounts of prey consumed by all juvenile pink salmon in both study years. We anticipated that years in which ocean survival was high would have had high growth potential, but this relationship did not prove to be true. Therefore, modeled growth potential may not be useful as a tool for forecasting survival of Prince William Sound hatchery pink salmon stocks. Significant differences in consumption demand and a two-fold difference in nearshore abundance during 2001 of hatchery and wild pink salmon confirmed the existence of strong and variable interannual competition and the importance of the nearshore region as being a potential competitive bottleneck.

  18. Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif Hossain, Md.

    2011-01-01

    This paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries (NIC) using the time series data for the period 1971-2007. Using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1. From the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables. The Granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long-run causal relationship, but there is unidirectional short-run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions, from economic growth to energy consumption, from trade openness to economic growth, from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization. It is found that the long-run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption (1.2189) is higher than short run elasticity of 0.5984. This indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more. But in respect of economic growth, trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long-run. - Highlights: → Dynamic causal relationships are conducted for different panel variables of NIC. → Test results support only existence of unidirectional short-run causal relationships. → Environment will be polluted more due to energy consumption in the long-run. → But environmental quality is found to be normally good in respect of other variables. → NIC should use solar energy as the substitute of oil to control CO 2 emissions.

  19. POOLED ESTIMATES OF INCIDENCE OF ENDOPHTHALMITIS AFTER INTRAVITREAL INJECTION OF ANTI-VASCULAR ENDOTHELIAL GROWTH FACTOR AGENTS WITH AND WITHOUT TOPICAL ANTIBIOTIC PROPHYLAXIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reibaldi, Michele; Pulvirenti, Alfredo; Avitabile, Teresio; Bonfiglio, Vincenza; Russo, Andrea; Mariotti, Cesare; Bucolo, Claudio; Mastropasqua, Rodolfo; Parisi, Guglielmo; Longo, Antonio

    2018-01-01

    To assess the effect of topical antibiotic prophylaxis on postoperative endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents. A systematic literature search was performed from inception to March 2016 using PubMed, Medline, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane Library, to identify articles that reported cases of endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents. We used a pooled analysis to estimate the incidence of cases of endophthalmitis who developed after injections performed with and without topical antibiotic prophylaxis. We used regression analysis to explore the effects of study characteristics on heterogeneity. From our search of electronic databases, we identified and screened 4,561 unique records. We judged 60 articles to have reported findings for cohorts of patients who met our inclusion criteria, (12 arms of randomized clinical trials, 11 prospective cohort studies, and 37 retrospective cohort studies), which included 244 cases of endophthalmitis and 639,391 intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents. The final pooled estimate endophthalmitis proportions were 9/10,000 (95% confidence interval, 7/10,000-12/10,000) in the antibiotic-treated group and 3/10,000 (95% confidence interval, 2/10,000-5/10,000) in the untreated group. The estimated incidence of endophthalmitis with topical antibiotic prophylaxis was approximated three times the incidence without prophylaxis. Random effects regression showed that none of the study characteristics significantly affected the effect size in either group. Topical antibiotic after intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents is associated with a higher risk of endophthalmitis.

  20. Brain reserve and cognitive reserve protect against cognitive decline over 4.5 years in MS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumowski, James F; Rocca, Maria A; Leavitt, Victoria M; Dackovic, Jelena; Mesaros, Sarlota; Drulovic, Jelena; DeLuca, John; Filippi, Massimo

    2014-05-20

    Based on the theories of brain reserve and cognitive reserve, we investigated whether larger maximal lifetime brain growth (MLBG) and/or greater lifetime intellectual enrichment protect against cognitive decline over time. Forty patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) underwent baseline and 4.5-year follow-up evaluations of cognitive efficiency (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task) and memory (Selective Reminding Test, Spatial Recall Test). Baseline and follow-up MRIs quantified disease progression: percentage brain volume change (cerebral atrophy), percentage change in T2 lesion volume. MLBG (brain reserve) was estimated with intracranial volume; intellectual enrichment (cognitive reserve) was estimated with vocabulary. We performed repeated-measures analyses of covariance to investigate whether larger MLBG and/or greater intellectual enrichment moderate/attenuate cognitive decline over time, controlling for disease progression. Patients with MS declined in cognitive efficiency and memory (p cognitive efficiency (p = 0.031, ηp (2) = 0.122), with larger MLBG protecting against decline. MLBG did not moderate memory decline (p = 0.234, ηp (2) = 0.039). Intellectual enrichment moderated decline in cognitive efficiency (p = 0.031, ηp (2) = 0.126) and memory (p = 0.037, ηp (2) = 0.115), with greater intellectual enrichment protecting against decline. MS disease progression was more negatively associated with change in cognitive efficiency and memory among patients with lower vs higher MLBG and intellectual enrichment. We provide longitudinal support for theories of brain reserve and cognitive reserve in MS. Larger MLBG protects against decline in cognitive efficiency, and greater intellectual enrichment protects against decline in cognitive efficiency and memory. Consideration of these protective factors should improve prediction of future cognitive decline in patients with MS. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

  1. Heritability estimates and response to selection for growth of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus ) in low-input earthen ponds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Charo-Karisa, H.; Komen, J.; Rezk, M.A.; Ponzoni, R.W.; Arendonk, van J.A.M.; Bovenhuis, H.

    2006-01-01

    This study presents results of two generations of selection (G1 and G2) for growth of Nile tilapia. The selection environment consisted of earthen ponds which were fertilized daily with 50 kg dry matter (dm)/ha chicken manure. No supplementary feeds were provided. In total, 6429 fully pedigreed

  2. Growth of Araucaria angustifolia in the Embrapa/Epagri forest reserve, Caçador, SC, Brazil Crescimento de Araucaria angustifolia na Reserva Florestal Embrapa/ Epagri, Caçador, SC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Póvoa de Mattos

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Araucaria Forest is one of most threatened phyto-physiognomies in the Atlantic Forest domain,
    presenting great ecological-economical importance. Nevertheless, there are still lacks of knowledge concerning growth and dynamic of important species, as Araucaria angustifolia. The objective of this work was to recover  the past growth of Araucaria angustifolia, native from Caçador, SC, Brazil, by measuring growth rings and to estimate the average periodic diametric increment. The growth rings were counted and measured, using a stereoscope microscope, in increment cores of 0.5 cm collected from 32 adult trees. The measurements were done with LINTAB measuring table, with 0.01 mm of precision. The samples sizes were irregular, varying from 4.2 to 20.2 cm long. The trees presented average diameter breast height (DBH of 76.3 cm, varying from 10.7 to 141.3 cm. The periodic diameter increment from the last 10 years was 0.4 cm, varying from 0.11 to 1.15 cm. It was observed differences among trees, but there was a tendency of reduction of growth rhythm in larger trees, being more
    evident in trees with more than 110 cm of DBH.A Floresta Ombrófila Mista (FOM é uma das fitofisionomias mais ameaçadas da área de domínio da
    Mata Atlântica, apresentando grande importância ecológico-econômica. Apesar disso, ainda existem lacunas de conhecimento sobre a produtividade primária, o crescimento e a dinâmica de espécies importantes, como a Araucaria angustifolia. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo estudar o crescimento anual de Araucaria angustifolia, nativa do Município de Caçador, SC, pela medição dos anéis de crescimento. A contagem e medição dos anéis de crescimento foram feitas com o auxílio de um microscópio estereoscópico, em baguetas de 0,5 cm de diâmetro, coletadas de 32 árvores adultas. As medições foram feitas com o medidor de anéis de crescimento LINTAB, com precisão de 0,01 mm. O comprimento das amostras

  3. Estimation of Genetic and Phenotypic Parameters for Growth Traits in a Clonal Seed Orchard of Pinus kesiya in Malawi

    OpenAIRE

    Missanjo, Edward; Kamanga-Thole, Gift; Manda, Vidah

    2013-01-01

    Genetic and phenotypic parameters for height, diameter at breast height (dbh), and volume were estimated for Pinus kesiya Royle ex Gordon clonal seed orchard in Malawi using an ASReml program, fitting an individual tree model. The data were from 88 clones assessed at 18, 23, 30, 35, and 40 years of age. Heritability estimates for height, dbh, and volume were moderate to high ranging from 0.19 to 0.54, from 0.14 to 0.53, and from 0.20 to 0.59, respectively, suggesting a strong genetic control ...

  4. Assessment of secondary aluminum reserves of nations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maung, Kyaw Nyunt; Yoshida, Tomoharu; Liu, Gang

    2017-01-01

    A classification framework of the secondary resources was applied to evaluate the framework's applicability and to assess secondary aluminum reserves for 19 countries. Estimated amounts of secondary aluminum reserves in 2010 were 85 million tonnes in the United States, 65 million tonnes in China......, 29 million tonnes in Japan, and 413 million tonnes globally. For the United States, its secondary reserves are larger than its primary reserves, although the global primary reserves (28,000 million tonnes) are much larger than the estimated secondary reserves. Considerable amounts of secondary...

  5. HERITABILITY FOR GROWTH RELATED TRAITS IN GIANT FRESHWATER PRAWN (Macrobrachium rosenbergii AT VARIOUS DEVELOPMENTAL STAGES AND CULTURE CONDITIONS ESTIMATED BY INTRACLASS CORRELATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imron Imron

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Heritability estimates of commercially important traits are of important in order to seek the best strategy of selective breeding program to be implemented. A study aimed at estimating the magnitude of this parameter for growth related traits, expressed in wet weight (WW, total length (TL, and standard length (SL, has been carried out in giant freshwater prawn (GFP. Particular emphasis was given to investigate the effect of ages and culture conditions on the magnitude of the heritability estimates. Nineteen full-sib families were established through individual pair mating. The families, namely groups of offsprings derived from each mating pair were raised through three stages of rearing activities: first-stage nursery (40 days, second-stage nursery (70 days, and grow-out rearing (130 days. Heritability for growth at each stage was estimated through the method of full-sib analysis or intraclass correlation. Components of variance used to produce the heritability estimates were obtained through the method of analysis of variance. Results showed that heritability estimates varied with both ages and culture conditions. The heritability estimates (± standard errors at 40 days for WW (0.69±0.151, TL (0.64±0.148, and SL (0.70±0.144 were higher than those observed at 70 days (WW = 0.24±0.15; TL = 0.22±0.15; and SL = 0.20±0.14 and 130 days (WW = 0.24±0.058; TL = 0.22±0.05; and SL = 0.20±0.60. A similar pattern was found with respect to the culture conditions. The estimates found in grow-out at lower stocking density (5 individual/ m2 days (WW = 0.24±0.058; TL = 0.22±0.05; and SL = 0.20±0.60 were higher than those observed at grow out at higher stocking density (20 individuals/m2 days (WW = 0.12±0.058; TL = 007±0.05; and SL = 0.14 ± 0.60. The possible causes of the observed patterns and implications that these findings may have on the breeding program of GFP are discussed.

  6. INFLUENCE OF SURFACE-ACTIVE AGENT CONCENTRATION ON THE SPECTROPHOTOMETRIC BIOMASS ESTIMATION DURING SUBMERGED GROWTH OF Mycobacterium bovis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sakai M.C.

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available The influence of the surface-active agent Tween 80 (polyoxyethylene 20 sorbitan monoleate on the dispersed growth of Mycobacterium bovis - BCG - was studied. The slopes of the bacterial dry mass / absorbance curves, were significantly reduced, by the increase of the Tween 80 concentration in the medium. Such an influence was probably due to the effect Tween 80 had on the average size of bacterial clumps during the culture carried out in a bench fermenter

  7. Gender, "g", and Fixed versus Growth Intelligence Mindsets as Predictors of Self-Estimated Domain Masculine Intelligence (DMIQ)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storek, Josephine; Furnham, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    Over 120 participants completed three timed intelligence tests, a self-estimated Domain Masculine (DMIQ) Intelligence scale, and a mindset "beliefs about intelligence" measure (Dweck, 2012) to examine correlates of the Hubris-Humility Effect (HHE) which shows males believe they are more intelligent than females. As predicted males gave…

  8. Algorithmic decision rules for estimating growth, removals, and mortality within a national-scale forest inventory (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. McWilliams; Carol L. Alerich; William A. Bechtold; Mark Hansen; Christopher M. Oswalt; Mike Thompson; Jeff Turner

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program maintains the National Information Management System (NIMS) that provides the computational framework for the annual forest inventory of the United States. Questions regarding the impact of key elements of programming logic, processing criteria, and estimation procedures...

  9. Use of multi-temporal UAV-derived imagery for estimating individual tree growth in Pinus pinea stands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juan Guerra-Hernández; Eduardo González-Ferreiro; Vicente Monleon; Sonia Faias; Margarida Tomé; Ramón Díaz-Varela

    2017-01-01

    High spatial resolution imagery provided by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) can yield accurate and efficient estimation of tree dimensions and canopy structural variables at the local scale. We flew a low-cost, lightweight UAV over an experimental Pinus pinea L. plantation (290 trees distributed over 16 ha with different fertirrigation treatments)...

  10. Estimating Short run and Long run Coefficients of Fundamentals Factors with Growth and Momentum Factor: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Shoaib

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the long term relationship of risk premium and fundamental factors in emerging stock markets of China, India and Pakistan keeping in view leading contribution of Fama and French (1992 and Carhart (1997 models. Contrary to the macroeconomic multifactor models, this study incorporates firm-specific risk factors related to the market premium; size (SMB, value (HML, momentum (WML and growth (UMD as determinants of risk premium. The firm-specific growth factor is incorporated based on evidence from Ho, Strange, and Piesse (2008 by employing (UMD which is based on assets to market equity of the firm. Sample of 1198 companies from the three emerging markets for the period of 2001-2013 depicts market risk premium as the leading factor affecting risk premium in Indian and the Pakistani markets. Results reveal market momentum being high enough to overestimate coefficients in the short run. However, the relationship is stabilized and adjusted in the long run. Chinese markets, where all the risk factors seem to play their role to determine risk premium, are relatively much stable and grown-up and clearly represent maturity of the Chinese markets. Distinction between the short run and long run might be useful for the investors of the three emerging economies. According to the principle of high risk associated with high returns, small value happens to deliver higher returns with higher volatility. The growth stocks outperform value stocks in these economies.

  11. Cognitive Reserve Scale and ageing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene León

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The construct of cognitive reserve attempts to explain why some individuals with brain impairment, and some people during normal ageing, can solve cognitive tasks better than expected. This study aimed to estimate cognitive reserve in a healthy sample of people aged 65 years and over, with special attention to its influence on cognitive performance. For this purpose, it used the Cognitive Reserve Scale (CRS and a neuropsychological battery that included tests of attention and memory. The results revealed that women obtained higher total CRS raw scores than men. Moreover, the CRS predicted the learning curve, short-term and long-term memory, but not attentional and working memory performance. Thus, the CRS offers a new proxy of cognitive reserve based on cognitively stimulating activities performed by healthy elderly people. Following an active lifestyle throughout life was associated with better intellectual performance and positive effects on relevant aspects of quality of life.

  12. Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture–recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Benjamin H.; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B.; Whiteley, Andrew R.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

    2015-01-01

    Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses.We developed an integrated capture–recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival.We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature.Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

  13. Cognitive reserve in aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, A M; Stern, Y

    2011-06-01

    Cognitive reserve explains why those with higher IQ, education, occupational attainment, or participation in leisure activities evidence less severe clinical or cognitive changes in the presence of age-related or Alzheimer's disease pathology. Specifically, the cognitive reserve hypothesis is that individual differences in how tasks are processed provide reserve against brain pathology. Cognitive reserve may allow for more flexible strategy usage, an ability thought to be captured by executive functions tasks. Additionally, cognitive reserve allows individuals greater neural efficiency, greater neural capacity, and the ability for compensation via the recruitment of additional brain regions. Taking cognitive reserve into account may allow for earlier detection and better characterization of age-related cognitive changes and Alzheimer's disease. Importantly, cognitive reserve is not fixed but continues to evolve across the lifespan. Thus, even late-stage interventions hold promise to boost cognitive reserve and thus reduce the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease and other age-related problems.

  14. Response of Insect Relative Growth Rate to Temperature and Host-Plant Phenology: Estimation and Validation from Field Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciss, Mamadou; Parisey, Nicolas; Fournier, Gwenaëlle; Taupin, Pierre; Dedryver, Charles-Antoine; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien

    2014-01-01

    Between 1975 to 2011, aphid Relative Growth Rates (RGR) were modelled as a function of mean outdoor temperature and host plant phenology. The model was applied to the grain aphid Sitobion avenae using data on aphid counts in winter wheat at two different climate regions in France (oceanic climate, Rennes (western France); continental climate, Paris). Mean observed aphid RGR was higher in Paris compared to the Rennes region. RGR increased with mean temperature, which is explained by aphid reproduction, growth and development being dependent on ambient temperature. From the stem extension to the heading stage in wheat, there was either a plateau in RGR values (Rennes) or an increase with a maximum at heading (Paris) due to high intrinsic rates of increase in aphids and also to aphid immigration. From the wheat flowering to the ripening stage, RGR decreased in both regions due to the low intrinsic rate of increase in aphids and high emigration rate linked to reduced nutrient quality in maturing wheat. The model validation process showed that the fitted models have more predictive power in the Paris region than in the Rennes region. PMID:24466259

  15. Bacterial production and growth rate estimation from ( sup 3 H)thymidine incorporation for attached and free-living bacteria in aquatic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iriberri, J.; Unanue, M.; Ayo, B.; Barcina, I., Egea, L. (Univ. del Pais Vasco, Bilbao (Spain))

    1990-02-01

    Production and specific growth rates of attached and free-living bacteria were estimated in an oligotrophic marine system, La Salvaje Beach, Vizcaya, Spain, and in a freshwater system having a higher nutrient concentration, Butron River, Vizcaya, Spain. Production was calculated from (methyl-{sup 3}H)thymidine incorporation by estimating specific conversion factors (cells or micrograms of C produced per mole of thymidine incorporated) for attached and free-living bacteria, respectively, in each system. Conversion factors were not statistically different between attached and free-living bacteria: 6.812 {times} 10{sup 11} and 8.678 {times} 10{sup 11} {mu}g of C mol{sup {minus}1} for free-living and attached bacteria in the freshwater system, and 1.276 {times} 10{sup 11} and 1.354 {times} 10{sup 11} {mu}g of C mol{sup {minus}1} for free-living and attached bacteria in the marine system. Therefore, use of a unique conversion factor for the mixed bacterial population is well founded. However, conversion factors were higher in the freshwater system than in the marine system. This could be due to the different tropic conditions of the two systems. Free-living bacteria contributed the most to production in the two systems (85% in the marine system and 67% in the freshwater system) because of their greater contribution to total biomass. Specific growth rates calculated from production data and biomass data were similar for attached and free-living bacteria.

  16. Bacterial production and growth rate estimation from [3H]thymidine incorporation for attached and free-living bacteria in aquatic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iriberri, J.; Unanue, M.; Ayo, B.; Barcina, I.; Egea, L.

    1990-01-01

    Production and specific growth rates of attached and free-living bacteria were estimated in an oligotrophic marine system, La Salvaje Beach, Vizcaya, Spain, and in a freshwater system having a higher nutrient concentration, Butron River, Vizcaya, Spain. Production was calculated from [methyl- 3 H]thymidine incorporation by estimating specific conversion factors (cells or micrograms of C produced per mole of thymidine incorporated) for attached and free-living bacteria, respectively, in each system. Conversion factors were not statistically different between attached and free-living bacteria: 6.812 x 10 11 and 8.678 x 10 11 μg of C mol -1 for free-living and attached bacteria in the freshwater system, and 1.276 x 10 11 and 1.354 x 10 11 μg of C mol -1 for free-living and attached bacteria in the marine system. Therefore, use of a unique conversion factor for the mixed bacterial population is well founded. However, conversion factors were higher in the freshwater system than in the marine system. This could be due to the different tropic conditions of the two systems. Free-living bacteria contributed the most to production in the two systems (85% in the marine system and 67% in the freshwater system) because of their greater contribution to total biomass. Specific growth rates calculated from production data and biomass data were similar for attached and free-living bacteria

  17. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

  18. Use of a D-optimal mixture design to estimate the effects of diverse chloride salts on the growth parameters of Lactobacillus pentosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arroyo-López, F N; Bautista-Gallego, J; Chiesa, A; Durán-Quintana, M C; Garrido-Fernández, A

    2009-06-01

    The effects of NaCl, KCl, CaCl(2), and MgCl(2) and their mixtures on the ionic strength (IS) of the medium and the growth parameters of Lactobacillus pentosus were studied by means of a D-optimal mixture experimental design with constrains (total salt concentrationCaCl(2)>NaCl>KCl. Within the experimental region, the lag phase duration (lambda) was mainly affected by NaCl and CaCl(2) and the interaction KCl with MgCl(2). The maximum specific growth rate (mu(max)) decreased as NaCl (the highest effect), CaCl(2), and MgCl(2) increased (regardless of the presence or not of previous NaCl); low KCl concentrations had a stimulating effect on mu(max), but its overall effect showed a similar trend to the other salts. The maximum population reached (N(max)) was the least affected parameter and decreased as NaCl and CaCl(2) concentrations increased regardless of the presence of the other salts. The equations that expressed the growth parameters as a function of the diverse chloride salts, within the limits assayed, were developed and the corresponding z- and harmonic Z-values were estimated.

  19. Panel estimation for renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth, CO2 emissions, the composite trade intensity, and financial openness of the commonwealth of independent states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan; Saboori, Behnaz

    2018-04-13

    This article investigates the long-run and causal linkages between economic growth, CO 2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable (fossil fuels) energy consumption, the Composite Trade Intensity (CTI) as a proxy for trade openness, and the Chinn-Ito index as a proxy for financial openness for a panel of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan over the period of 1992-2015. It is the first time that CTI and the Chinn-Ito indexes are used in an economic-pollution model. Employing three panel unit root tests, panel cointegration estimation methods (DOLS and FMOLS), and two panel causality tests, the main empirical results provided evidence for the bidirectional long-run relationship between all the variables in all 12 sampled countries except for economic growth-renewable energy use linkage. The findings of causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional short-run panel causality running from economic growth, financial openness, and trade openness to CO 2 emissions and from fossil fuel energy consumption to renewable energy use.

  20. Uranium reserves and exploration activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehan, R.J.

    1975-01-01

    The strategy that ERDA plans to employ regarding resource appraisal is outlined. All types of uranium occurrences will be evaluated as sources of domestic ore reserves. Industry's exploration efforts will be compiled. These data will include information on land acquisition and costs, footage drilled and costs, estimates of exploration activities and expenditures, exploration for non-sandstone deposits, exploration in non-established areas, and foreign exploration plans and costs. Typical data in each of these areas are given

  1. Genetic parameter estimates for serum insulin-like growth factor I concentration and performance traits in Angus beef cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, M E; Simmen, R C

    1997-02-01

    Data for this study were obtained from an experiment involving divergent selection for blood serum IGF-I concentration in beef cattle. Multiple trait derivative-free REML procedures were used to obtain genetic parameter estimates for IGF-I concentration at d 28, 42, and 56 of the postweaning period and for mean IGF-I concentration, as well as for weights and gains. Included in the analysis were 1,563 animals in the A-1 matrix, 731 of which had valid records for mean IGF-I concentration. Direct heritabilities (hd2) were .42 +/- .13, .53 +/- .15, .71 +/- .16, and .48 +/- .13 for IGF-I at d 28, 42, and 56 of the postweaning period and for mean IGF-I, respectively. Heritability of maternal genetic effects (hm2) ranged from .02 to .12, whereas the proportion of the total variance due to the maternal permanent environmental effect (c2) was essentially zero for all measures of IGF-I. Genetic correlations of IGF-I with weaning and postweaning weights and with postweaning weight gain ranged from -.21 to -.54 and averaged -.38. The environmental correlation between IGF-I and performance traits varied from .10 to .35 and averaged .22. Phenotypic correlations of IGF-I concentrations with weaning weight and postweaning weights and gains ranged from -.01 to .12 and averaged .04. Estimates of hd2 indicate that it should be possible to change IGF-I concentration in beef cattle via selection. Negative genetic correlations imply that, if the goal is to make genetic improvement in weaning weights, postweaning weights and (or) postweaning gain in beef cattle, selection should be for decreased postweaning serum IGF-I concentration.

  2. Reserving by detailed conditioning on individual claim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi; Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie; Wilandari, Yuciana

    2017-03-01

    The estimation of claim reserves is an important activity in insurance companies to fulfill their liabilities. Recently, reserving method of individual claim have attracted a lot of interest in the actuarial science, which overcome some deficiency of aggregated claim method. This paper explores the Reserving by Detailed Conditioning (RDC) method using all of claim information for reserving with individual claim of liability insurance from an Indonesian general insurance company. Furthermore, we compare it to Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.

  3. Electrophoretic analysis of different human growth hormone preparations:characterization and molecular weight estimation of isohormones and other proteic components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, I.

    1979-01-01

    Twelve human growth hormone (hGH) preparations were studied on analytical polyacrilamide gel electrophoresis with the purpose of evaluating degree of homogeneity of the extracts, the geometric mean radius (R) sup(-) and the molecular weight (MW) of the protein hormone. A standard curve was used for ten proteins of known molecular weight, where the square root of the retardation coefficient (K sub(R)) was plotted against R sup(-). Five isohormones were identified and defined as charge isomers, based on their different relative free mobility and on their similar R sup(-)(1.81-1.97 nm) and MW (20300-26000 d) values. The heterogeneity of all preparations was due to the presence in general of three isohormones. In five preparations, isohormones B, C 1 and C 2 , were predominant. In recent hGH (IEA) preparations by the method of ROOS, the isohormones C 2 , D and E were identified while in an older one, isohormones E and E 1 were detected. From two to five minor components were found in all samples. Moreover the same type of analysis was carried out on several fractions from protein peaks II and III eluting from Sephadex G 100 purification of three hGH (IEA) extracts. The isohormones start to appear in peak II and their relative concentration is in agreement with the peak III profile read at 280 nm. Practically all secondary components were present in peak II and in most of peak III, showing a type of heterogeneity due to hGH polymeric forms and a relatively small presence of contaminants. (Author) [pt

  4. COGNITIVE RESERVE IN AGING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Adrienne M.; Stern, Yaakov

    2011-01-01

    Cognitive reserve explains why those with higher IQ, education, occupational attainment, or participation in leisure activities evidence less severe clinical or cognitive changes in the presence of age-related or Alzheimer’s disease pathology. Specifically, the cognitive reserve hypothesis is that individual differences in how tasks are processed provide reserve against brain pathology. Cognitive reserve may allow for more flexible strategy usage, an ability thought to be captured by executive functions tasks. Additionally, cognitive reserve allows individuals greater neural efficiency, greater neural capacity, and the ability for compensation via the recruitment of additional brain regions. Taking cognitive reserve into account may allow for earlier detection and better characterization of age-related cognitive changes and Alzheimer’s disease. Importantly, cognitive reserve is not fixed but continues to evolve across the lifespan. Thus, even late-stage interventions hold promise to boost cognitive reserve and thus reduce the prevalence of Alzheimer’s disease and other age-related problems. PMID:21222591

  5. HYDROCARBONS RESERVES IN VENEZUELA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Cruz, D.J.

    2007-07-01

    Venezuela is an important player in the energy world, because of its hydrocarbons reserves. The process for calculating oil and associated gas reserves is described bearing in mind that 90% of the gas reserves of Venezuela are associated to oil. Likewise, an analysis is made of the oil reserves figures from 1975 to 2003. Reference is also made to inconsistencies found by international experts and the explanations offered in this respect by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum (MENPET) and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) regarding the changes that took place in the 1980s. In turn, Hubbert's Law is explained to determine peak production of conventional oil that a reservoir or field will reach, as well as its relationship with remaining reserves. Emphasis is placed on the interest of the United Nations on this topic. The reserves of associated gas are presented along with their relationship with the different crude oils that are produced and with injected gas, as well as with respect to the possible changes that would take place in the latter if oil reserves are revised. Some recommendations are submitted so that the MENPET starts preparing the pertinent policies ruling reserves. (auth)

  6. Estimating the Effect of Urban Growth on Annual Runoff Volume Using GIS in the Erbil Sub-Basin of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Mohammed Hameed

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The growth and spread of impervious surfaces within urbanizing catchment areas pose signiificant threats to the quality of natural and built-up environments. Impervious surfaces prevent water infiltration into the soil, resulting in increased runoff generation. The Erbil Sub-basin was selected because the impervious cover is increasing rapidly and is affecting the hydrological condition of the watershed. The overall aim of this study is to examine the impact of urban growth and other changes in land use on runoff response during the study period of 1984 to 2014. The study describes long-term hydrologic responses within the rapidly developing catchment area of Erbil city, in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Data from six rainfall stations in and around the Erbil Sub-basin were used. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM was also used to extract the distribution of the drainage network. Historical levels of urban growth and the corresponding impervious areas, as well as land use/land cover changes were mapped from 1984 to 2014 using a temporal satellite image (Landsat to determine land use/land cover changes. Land use/land cover was combined with a hydrological model (SCS-CN to estimate the volume of runoff from the watershed. The study indicates that the urbanization of the watershed has increased the impervious land cover by 71% for the period from 1984 to 2004 and by 51% from 2004 to 2014. The volume of runoff was 85% higher in 2014 as compared to 1984 due to the increase in the impervious surface area; this is attributed to urban growth. The study also points out that the slope of the watershed in the Erbil sub-basin should be taken into account in surface runoff estimation as the upstream part of the watershed has a high gradient and the land is almost barren with very little vegetation cover; this causes an increase in the velocity of the flow and increases the risk of flooding in Erbil city.

  7. Estimates of Heritability for Growth and Shell Color Traits and Their Genetic Correlations in the Black Shell Strain of Pacific Oyster Crassostrea gigas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lan; Li, Qi; Yu, Hong; Kong, Lingfeng

    2017-10-01

    The Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas has been introduced widely and massively and became an economically important aquaculture species on a global scale. We estimated heritabilities of growth and shell color traits and their genetic correlations in black shell strain of C. gigas. Analyses were performed on 22 full-sib families in a nested mating design including 410 individuals at harvest (24 months of age). The parentage assignment was inferred based on four panels of multiplex PCR markers including 10 microsatellite loci and 94.9% of the offspring were unambiguously assigned to single parent pairs. The Spearman correlation test (r = - 0.992, P shell pigmentation (SP) and L* and their same efficacy in shell color measurements. The narrow-sense heritability estimated under the animal model analysis was 0.18 ± 0.12 for shell height, 0.25 ± 0.16 for shell length, 0.10 ± 0.09 for shell width, 0.42 ± 0.20 for total weight, 0.32 ± 0.18 for shell weight, and 0.68 ± 0.16 for L*, 0.69 ± 0.16 for shell pigmentation, respectively. The considerable additive genetic variation in growth and shell color traits will make it feasible to produce genetic improvements for these traits in selective breeding program. High genetic and phenotypic correlations were found among growth traits and among shell color traits. To optimize a selection strategy for both fast growth and pure dark shell strain of C. gigas, it is proposed to take both total weight and black shell as joint objective traits in selective breeding program. Our study offers an important reference in the process of selective breeding in black shell color stain of C. gigas and will facilitate to develop favorable breeding strategies of genetic improvements for this economically important strain.

  8. Ovarian reserve parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bentzen, J G; Forman, Julie Lyng; Pinborg, Anja

    2012-01-01

    2-5 of the menstrual cycle or during withdrawal bleeding, blood sampling and transvaginal sonography was performed. After adjusting for age, ovarian reserve parameters were lower among users than among non-users of hormonal contraception: serum AMH concentration by 29.8% (95% CI 19.9 to 38...... was observed between duration of hormonal-contraception use and ovarian reserve parameters. No dose-response relation was found between the dose of ethinyloestradiol and AMH or AFC. This study indicates that ovarian reserve markers are lower in women using sex steroids for contraception. Thus, AMH...... concentration and AFC may not retain their accuracy as predictors of ovarian reserve in women using hormonal contraception. Serum anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) concentration is an indirect marker of the number of small follicles in the ovary and thereby the ovarian reserve. The AMH concentration is now widely...

  9. Estimation of autotrophic maximum specific growth rate constant--experience from the long-term operation of a laboratory-scale sequencing batch reactor system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Yu-min; Makinia, Jacek; Pagilla, Krishna R

    2008-04-01

    The autotrophic maximum specific growth rate constant, muA,max, is the critical parameter for design and performance of nitrifying activated sludge systems. In literature reviews (i.e., Henze et al., 1987; Metcalf and Eddy, 1991), a wide range of muA,max values have been reported (0.25 to 3.0 days(-1)); however, recent data from several wastewater treatment plants across North America revealed that the estimated muA,max values remained in the narrow range 0.85 to 1.05 days(-1). In this study, long-term operation of a laboratory-scale sequencing batch reactor system was investigated for estimating this coefficient according to the low food-to-microorganism ratio bioassay and simulation methods, as recommended in the Water Environment Research Foundation (Alexandria, Virginia) report (Melcer et al., 2003). The estimated muA,max values using steady-state model calculations for four operating periods ranged from 0.83 to 0.99 day(-1). The International Water Association (London, United Kingdom) Activated Sludge Model No. 1 (ASM1) dynamic model simulations revealed that a single value of muA,max (1.2 days(-1)) could be used, despite variations in the measured specific nitrification rates. However, the average muA,max was gradually decreasing during the activated sludge chlorination tests, until it reached the value of 0.48 day(-1) at the dose of 5 mg chlorine/(g mixed liquor suspended solids x d). Significant discrepancies between the predicted XA/YA ratios were observed. In some cases, the ASM1 predictions were approximately two times higher than the steady-state model predictions. This implies that estimating this ratio from a complex activated sludge model and using it in simple steady-state model calculations should be accepted with great caution and requires further investigation.

  10. Skyline Reservation System

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — Flight reservation application used for in-country flights by USAID and DoS staff in Afghanistan. The application is managed and maintained by the vendor and USAID...

  11. To what degree does the missing-data technique influence the estimated growth in learning strategies over time? A tutorial example of sensitivity analysis for longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coertjens, Liesje; Donche, Vincent; De Maeyer, Sven; Vanthournout, Gert; Van Petegem, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Longitudinal data is almost always burdened with missing data. However, in educational and psychological research, there is a large discrepancy between methodological suggestions and research practice. The former suggests applying sensitivity analysis in order to the robustness of the results in terms of varying assumptions regarding the mechanism generating the missing data. However, in research practice, participants with missing data are usually discarded by relying on listwise deletion. To help bridge the gap between methodological recommendations and applied research in the educational and psychological domain, this study provides a tutorial example of sensitivity analysis for latent growth analysis. The example data concern students' changes in learning strategies during higher education. One cohort of students in a Belgian university college was asked to complete the Inventory of Learning Styles-Short Version, in three measurement waves. A substantial number of students did not participate on each occasion. Change over time in student learning strategies was assessed using eight missing data techniques, which assume different mechanisms for missingness. The results indicated that, for some learning strategy subscales, growth estimates differed between the models. Guidelines in terms of reporting the results from sensitivity analysis are synthesised and applied to the results from the tutorial example.

  12. On the potential for a CO2 fertilization effect in forest trees: An assessment of 58 controlled-exposure studies and estimates of the biotic growth factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wullschleger, S.D.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.

    1992-01-01

    Characterizing the response of terrestrial ecosystems to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 and estimating their biological capacity to either moderate or accelerate predicted changes in the earth's climate, continues to present a formidable challenge to experimentalist and modelers alike. Nevertheless, it is generally recognized that the carbon dynamics of terrestrial vegetation represent an important biospheric feedback to increasing CO 2 concentrations, and hence to global warming, and as such there exists little debate that ecosystems occupy a.potentially pivotal role in determining both the direction and rate of future changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. What is currently the subject of much debate, however, is whether terrestrial ecosystems will contribute to global warming by releasing additional CO 2 the atmosphere as a result of increasing respiration and/or decomposition in a warming climate, or whether they will instead sequester additional carbon in response to the enhancing effects of atmospheric CO 2 on plant growth. This latter response, the so-called CO 2 fertilization effect, has been hypothesized as an important negative feedback to global warming, offering the potential to constrain future increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and has often been invoked to either partially or wholly account for the estimated 1.6 Gt C/year imbalance or ''missing sink'' in calculations of the global carbon budget

  13. SUIKERBOSRAND NATURE RESERVE

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Suikerbosrand Nature Reserve and fts educational facilities are run by the Transvaal. Division of. Nature Conservation. ... tion and the education facilities provided. The former are utilized mainly by the general public ... artist Paul Bosman (already reviewed in the EEASA newsletter). The co-founders of the Foundation are.

  14. Session 7: Reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, R.; Crockford, G.

    2001-01-01

    The reserve session was devoted to some issues that came up through the workshop, which were grouped into three main areas: The Global Accelerator Network, Problems of stress and how to get organized to minimize them, What should an operations group be responsible for? This paper summarizes the discussions that took place. (author)

  15. School Shootings Stun Reservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borja, Rhea R.; Cavanagh, Sean

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with the impact brought by the school shootings at Red Lake Indian Reservation in Minnesota to the school community. A deeply troubled 16-year-old student shot and killed seven other people and himself at a high school. The nation's deadliest school attack since the 1999 slayings at Colorado's suburban Columbine High School took…

  16. SUIKERBOSRAND NATURE RESERVE

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    reserve, the total length being 66 km with six overnight huts. There are also the BokmakiePie. Nature Troil. and the Cheetah Interpretive Troil. which can be used by day visitors. The former has two loops, one of 10 km and another of 17 km. The. Cheetah Troil. is much shorter and various points of interest are interpreted en ...

  17. Estimation of the genetic parameters of meat characteristics and of their genetic correlations with growth and body composition in an experimental broiler line.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan-Duval, E; Berri, C; Baeza, E; Millet, N; Beaumont, C

    2001-07-01

    Genetic parameters of breast meat characteristics [pH 15 min postmortem (pH15min), ultimate pH (pHu), CIELAB color parameters (L*, lightness; a*, redness; b*, yellowness) and drip loss (DL)] as well as their genetic correlations with BW and body composition [breast yield (BRY) and abdominal fat percentage (AFP)] were estimated in an experimental meat-type chicken line. Heritability of the pH of meat was high for pHu (0.35 +/- 0.03) and even more so for pH15min (0.49 +/- 0.01). Color parameters appeared to be the most heritable traits, with heritability values ranging from 0.50 to 0.57. Drip loss heritability was estimated at 0.39 +/- 0.04. The rate and the extent of pH decline seemed to be controlled by different genes, as shown by the extremely low estimated genetic correlation (0.02 +/- 0.04) between pH15min and pHu. The ultimate pH of the meat was genetically very strongly related to its lightness (-0.91 +/- 0.02) and water-holding capacity (-0.83 +/- 0.04). These results suggest that selection for pHu could be exploited to prevent increased incidence of pale and exudative meat. The pH15min was poorly correlated with the other meat characteristics, with estimated correlations of 0.13, -0.23, 0.05, and -0.29 for L*, a*, b*, and DL, respectively. These results may be explained by the fact that, in our experimental conditions, pH15min remained high (between 6.01 and 6.75). Body weight and BRY exhibited poor genetic correlations (ranging from -0.06 to 0.13) with the pH of the meat at 15 min and 24 h postmortem. Both of the former traits were moderately negatively correlated with a* and b* values. A significant negative genetic correlation was observed between abdominal fatness and pHu. These results do not support the idea that selection for growth and breast development has a detrimental effect on breast meat quality even if, in the long term, the color intensity could be decreased.

  18. IGT calculates world reserves of fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    The Institute of Gas Technology has published the IGT World Reserves Survey, giving their latest tabulation of world reserves of fossil fuels and uranium. The report contains 120 Tables and 41 Figures. Estimates are provided for proved reserves, resources, current production, and life indexes of the non-renewable energy sources of the US and of the world as a whole. World regional data are also provided in many cases. The data are summarized here. 2 figures, 5 tables

  19. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The Strategic Petroleum Reserve program was set into motion by the 1975 Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA). By 1990, 590 million barrels of oil had been placed in storage. Salt domes along the Gulf Coast offered ideal storage. Both sweet'' and sour'' crude oil have been acquired using various purchase options. Drawdown, sale, and distribution of the oil would proceed according to guidelines set by EPCA in the event of a severe energy supply disruption. (SM)

  20. [Hypertrophy and coronary reserve].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motz, W; Scheler, S

    2008-12-01

    Left ventricular hypertrophy represents the structural mechanism of adaptation of the left ventricle as the answer of a chronic pressure overload in arterial hypertension. Initially an increment in left ventricular wall thickness occurs. In this stadium of "concentric hypertrophy" LV systolic wall stress, LV ejection fraction and myocardial oxygen consumption per weight unit myocardium remain unchanged. In the further time course of disease LV dilatation will be present. In this phase of "excentric hypertrophy" LV systolic wall stress and myocardial oxygen consumption per weight unit myocardium rise and LV ejection fraction decreases. Patients with arterial hypertension frequently complain of angina pectoris. Angina pectoris and the positive exercise tolerance test or the positive myocardial scintigraphy are the consequence of the impaired coronary flow reserve. The coronary flow reserve is diminished due to structural and functional changes of the coronary circulation. ACE-inhibitors and AT1-receptor blockers cause a significant improvement of coronary flow reserve and regression of both left ventricular hypertrophy and myocardial fibrosis.

  1. An economical non-destructive method for estimating eelgrass, Zostera marina (Potamogetonaceae leaf growth rates: formal development and use in northwestern Baja California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Solana-Arellano

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Seagrass beds provide much of the primary production in estuaries; host many fishes and fish larvae, and abate erosion. The present study presents original analytical methods for estimating mean leaf-growth rates of eelgrass (Zostera marina. The method was calibrated by using data collected in a Z. marina meadow at Punta Banda estuary in Baja California, Mexico. The analytical assessments were based on measurements of leaf length and standard regression procedures. We present a detailed explanation of the formal procedures involved in the derivation of these analytical methods. The measured daily leaf-growth rate was 10.9 mm d-1 leaf-1. The corresponding value projected by our method was 10.2 mm d-1 leaf-1. The associated standard errors were of 0.53 and 0.56 mm d-1 leaf-1 respectively. The method was validated by projecting leaf-growth rates from an independent data set, which gave consistent results. The use of the method to obtain the mean leaf growth rate of a transplanted plot is also illustrated. Comparison of our leaf-growth data with previously reported assessments show the significant forcing of sea-surface temperature on eelgrass leaf dynamics. The formal constructs provided here are of general scope and can be applied to equivalent eelgrass data sets in a straightforward manner. Rev. Biol. Trop. 56 (3: 1003-1013. Epub 2008 September 30.Las praderas de pastos marinos abaten la erosión y aportan gran parte de la productividad primaria de los esteros y son refugio de muchos peces y sus larvas. El presente trabajo introduce métodos analíticos para estimar las tasas medias de crecimiento foliar de Zostera marina L. y sus varianzas. La calibración del método se llevó a cabo utilizando datos de una pradera de esta fanerógama en el Estero de Punta Banda Baja California, México. Las referidas estimaciones analíticas, se basan en medias de longitud foliar y en procedimientos estandarizados de regresión. Dichas determinaciones son por

  2. Economic growth and the reform of the judicial system of Bulgaria in the period 2000-2015 (vision for a new measurement model). IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc N72919, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Nozharov, Shteryo

    2015-01-01

    Abstract: The publication proposes a concept for new model for evaluation of the “reform of the judicial system”, different from those applied by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund where the economic growth rate of each country is measured. Their models, based on performance indicators, examine the “reform of the judicial system” as constant and floating in time, evaluated in certain periods of time. This fact obstructs the identification of the relative legislative miscarriag...

  3. Demand for International Reserves in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yimaz Sinem

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Having an important place in the international monetary system, international reserves held by central bank usually reflect country’s economic strength in terms of international finance and trade. There are many reasons for holding international reserves by central banks such as financing the deficit in the balance of payment, managing the monetary and exchange rate policies, minimizing the negative effects of external shocks and reducing the cost of borrowing. Continuously changing and diversifying characteristics of these reasons affect the demand for reserves depending to the economic conditions of the country. Over the last ten years, there has been a tremendous increase in international reserves held by Turkish Central Bank. From 2002 to 2012, the reserves of the bank have risen from 20 billion dollars to 96 billion dollars, showing an increase more than four times. This sudden and huge increase in the foreign reserves drove us to determine and investigate the factors which induce the Turkish Central Bank to hold high level of reserves. Thus, the purpose of this study is to estimate and analyze the demand for international reserves held by central banks using the buffer stock model in the case of Turkey. The data used in the study is monthly and cover the period of 1990:03-2012:10. The buffer stock model was econometrically estimated by using the OLS method for three different models. Our findings indicate that the opportunity cost affected reserve demand much stronger than the reserve volatility in Turkish case.

  4. Implication of World Health Organization growth standards on estimation of malnutrition in young Chinese children: Two examples from rural western China and the Tibet region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Shaonong; Yan, Hong; Wang, Duolao

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to determine how malnutrition rates change in young Chinese children when 2006 World Health Organization (WHO) growth standards are used instead of 1978 WHO/National Center for Health Statistics reference. Cross-sectional survey data were used from rural western China and the Tibet region. The heights and weights of children of Tibet). The prevalence of underweight was lower in rural western China (7.7% vs. 11.7%) than rural Tibet (13.1% vs. 15.3%). For all ages, the prevalence of stunting increased and the greatest relative increase appeared in the first six months (102.9% in rural western China vs. 134.9% in rural Tibet). With respect to underweight, the relative increase occurred only during the first six months (314.3% in rural western China vs. 48.1% in rural Tibet); however, the reduction was observed in other age groups. For young Chinese Han and Tibetan children, the difference in estimation of malnutrition between two references differed in magnitude. The scale of change in the prevalence rates of stunting and underweight is much greater when 2006 reference was introduced. © The Author(s) 2013.

  5. Fractional Reserve Banking

    OpenAIRE

    Andreasen, Niels; Bjerregaard, Mads; Lund, Jonas; Olsen, Ove Bitsch; Rasmussen, Andreas Dalgas

    2012-01-01

    Projektet er bygget op omkring kritisk realisme, som er det gennemgående videnskabelige fundament til undersøgelsen af hvilke strukturelle grunde der er til finansiel ustabilitet i Danmark. Projektet går i dybden med Fractional Reserve Banking og incitamentsstrukturen i banksystemet. Vi bevæger os både på det makro- og mikroøkonomiske niveau i analysen. På makro niveau bruger vi den østrigske skole om konjunktur teori (The Positive Theory of the Cycle). På mikro niveau arbejder vi med princip...

  6. Brain reserve and cognitive reserve in multiple sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocca, Maria A.; Leavitt, Victoria M.; Riccitelli, Gianna; Comi, Giancarlo; DeLuca, John; Filippi, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Objective: We first tested the brain reserve (BR) hypothesis in multiple sclerosis (MS) by examining whether larger maximal lifetime brain volume (MLBV; determined by genetics) protects against disease-related cognitive impairment, and then investigated whether cognitive reserve (CR) gained through life experience (intellectually enriching leisure activities) protects against cognitive decline independently of MLBV (BR). Methods: Sixty-two patients with MS (41 relapsing-remitting MS, 21 secondary progressive MS) received MRIs to estimate BR (MLBV, estimated with intracranial volume [ICV]) and disease burden (T2 lesion load; atrophy of gray matter, white matter, thalamus, and hippocampus). Early-life cognitive leisure was measured as a source of CR. We assessed cognitive status with tasks of cognitive efficiency and memory. Hierarchical regressions were used to investigate whether higher BR (ICV) protects against cognitive impairment, and whether higher CR (leisure) independently protects against cognitive impairment over and above BR. Results: Cognitive status was positively associated with ICV (R2 = 0.066, p = 0.017). An ICV × disease burden interaction (R2 = 0.050, p = 0.030) revealed that larger ICV attenuated the impact of disease burden on cognition. Controlling for BR, higher education (R2 = 0.047, p = 0.030) and leisure (R2 = 0.090, p = 0.001) predicted better cognition. A leisure × disease burden interaction (R2 = 0.037, p = 0.030) showed that leisure independently attenuated the impact of disease burden on cognition. Follow-up analyses revealed that BR protected against cognitive inefficiency, not memory deficits, whereas CR was more protective against memory deficits than cognitive inefficiency. Conclusion: We provide evidence of BR in MS, and show that CR independently protects against disease-related cognitive decline over and above BR. Lifestyle choices protect against cognitive impairment independently of genetic factors outside of one's control

  7. Collaborative assessment of California spiny lobster population and fishery responses to a marine reserve network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Matthew C; Lenihan, Hunter S; Guenther, Carla M; Wilson, Jono R; Miller, Christopher J; Shrout, Samuel W

    2012-01-01

    Assessments of the conservation and fisheries effects of marine reserves typically focus on single reserves where sampling occurs over narrow spatiotemporal scales. A strategy for broadening the collection and interpretation of data is collaborative fisheries research (CFR). Here we report results of a CFR program formed in part to test whether reserves at the Santa Barbara Channel Islands, USA, influenced lobster size and trap yield, and whether abundance changes in reserves led to spillover that influenced trap yield and effort distribution near reserve borders. Industry training of scientists allowed us to sample reserves with fishery relevant metrics that we compared with pre-reserve fishing records, a concurrent port sampling program, fishery effort patterns, the local ecological knowledge (LEK) of fishermen, and fishery-independent visual surveys of lobster abundance. After six years of reserve protection, there was a four- to eightfold increase in trap yield, a 5-10% increase in the mean size (carapace length) of legal sized lobsters, and larger size structure of lobsters trapped inside vs. outside of three replicate reserves. Patterns in trap data were corroborated by visual scuba surveys that indicated a four- to sixfold increase in lobster density inside reserves. Population increases within reserves did not lead to increased trap yields or effort concentrations (fishing the line) immediately outside reserve borders. The absence of these catch and effort trends, which are indicative of spillover, may be due to moderate total mortality (Z = 0.59 for legal sized lobsters outside reserves), which was estimated from analysis of growth and length frequency data collected as part of our CFR program. Spillover at the Channel Islands reserves may be occurring but at levels that are insufficient to influence the fishery dynamics that we measured. Future increases in fishing effort (outside reserves) and lobster biomass (inside reserves) are likely and may lead to

  8. A General Business Model for Marine Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Enric; Costello, Christopher; Dougherty, Dawn; Heal, Geoffrey; Kelleher, Kieran; Murray, Jason H.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.; Sumaila, Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Marine reserves are an effective tool for protecting biodiversity locally, with potential economic benefits including enhancement of local fisheries, increased tourism, and maintenance of ecosystem services. However, fishing communities often fear short-term income losses associated with closures, and thus may oppose marine reserves. Here we review empirical data and develop bioeconomic models to show that the value of marine reserves (enhanced adjacent fishing + tourism) may often exceed the pre-reserve value, and that economic benefits can offset the costs in as little as five years. These results suggest the need for a new business model for creating and managing reserves, which could pay for themselves and turn a profit for stakeholder groups. Our model could be expanded to include ecosystem services and other benefits, and it provides a general framework to estimate costs and benefits of reserves and to develop such business models. PMID:23573192

  9. Substantiating the Incurred but not Reported Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Vintilã

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to handle past and future liability taken by insurance contracts concluded, any insurance company must constitute and maintain technical reserves. Substantiating technical reserves is done through actuarial methods and its over-evaluation or under-evaluation influence solvency and financial performance of the insurance companies, in the sense of reducing solvency through over-evaluating reserves and, respectively, influencing profit (hence of outstanding tax through under-evaluating reserves. An important reserve for insurance companies is represented by the incurred but not reported reserve, as it allows the estimation of the liability the company may confront in the future, generated by events occurred in the past, which are not currently known in the present but will be reported in the future.

  10. Are uranium reserves adequate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2006-01-01

    Against a backdrop of growing concerns about global warming and geopolitical pressures on fossil energies, especially natural gas and oil, interest in nuclear power has revived considerably. Conscious of its addiction to oil and reeling from a series of gigantic blackouts, the United States, in the words of its president, must 'aggressively move forward with the construction of nuclear power plants'. Some European countries have approved new power plant construction (Finland and France), while the more reserved ones (Belgium, Germany and Sweden) have begun to show a change in attitude. Asia, meanwhile, is host to the planet's largest number of potential nuclear construction projects in this first half of the 21. century. All these signs point to a sharp rise in uranium consumption, the basic fuel for these plants. But are there enough resources to support a nuclear revival on a planetary scale? The publication of the Red Book on uranium in late May 2006 was an opportunity for Thierry Dujardin, Deputy Director of Science and Development at the OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency, to take stock of resources. He gives his opinion in this paper

  11. Strategic Petroleum Reserve annual/quarterly report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-02-16

    During 1992 the Department continued planning activities for the expansion of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to one billion barrels. A draft Environmental Impact Statement for the five candidate sites was completed in October 1992, and a series of public hearings was held during December 1992. Conceptual design engineering activities, life cycle cost estimates and geotechnical studies to support the technical requirements for an Strategic Petroleum Reserve Plan Amendment were essentially completed in December 1992. At the end of 1992, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve crude oil inventory was 574.7 million barrels and an additional 1.7 million barrels was in transit to the Reserve. During 1992 approximately 6.2 million barrels of crude oil were acquired for the Reserve. A Department of Energy Tiger Team Environmental, Safety and Health (ES&H) Assessment was conducted at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve from March 9 through April 10, 1992. In general, the Tiger Team found that Strategic Petroleum Reserve activities do not pose undue environmental, safety or health risks. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve`s Final Corrective Action Plan, prepared in response to the Tiger Team assessment, was submitted for Department approval in December 1992. On November 18, 1992, the Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy selected DynMcDennott Petroleum Operations Company to provide management and operating services for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a period of 5 years commencing April 1, 1993. DynMcDermott will succeed Boeing Petroleum Services, Inc.

  12. »AREA« PROGRAMME FOR CALCULATION OF MINERAL RESERVES

    OpenAIRE

    Nevenka Krklec; Mario Zidar

    1989-01-01

    An accurate estimation of mineral reserves is needed for their completion of geologic project on the reserves of solid mineral raw materials. Authors have developed an original computer analyses for estimation of mineral reserves based on the method of vertical, parallel profiles. The language and the computer used are PASCAL and PARTNER, respectively. Important results in speed and accuracy of estimation have been obtained (the paper is published in Croatian).

  13. »AREA« PROGRAMME FOR CALCULATION OF MINERAL RESERVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nevenka Krklec

    1989-12-01

    Full Text Available An accurate estimation of mineral reserves is needed for their completion of geologic project on the reserves of solid mineral raw materials. Authors have developed an original computer analyses for estimation of mineral reserves based on the method of vertical, parallel profiles. The language and the computer used are PASCAL and PARTNER, respectively. Important results in speed and accuracy of estimation have been obtained (the paper is published in Croatian.

  14. Estimation of potential fresh water reserves in icebergs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Krass

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the forecast of the global shortage of fresh water it is expected that the global demand for drink‑ ing water will be increased up to 400 km3 per a year. As the main potential resources of drinking water it is proposed to use table Antarctic icebergs. Mathematical and phenomenological models of heat exchange between the icebergs and the environment, and a process of melting of ices floes in the warm sea water are discussed. The ablation processes on the daily and lower surfaces of icebergs at different modes of towing them to points of utilization is analyzed. The most optimal technology is to fill tankers with water taken from the freshwater layer under icebergs, and then subsequent delivery of the water to points of utilization. Using of the phenomenon of fresh-salt stratified Lake Vanda is considered as one of promising technologies of the industrial water production.

  15. Shifts in microbial populations in Rusitec fermenters as affected by the type of diet and impact of the method for estimating microbial growth (15N v. microbial DNA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, I; Ranilla, M J; Saro, C; Carro, M D

    2017-11-01

    Rusitec fermenters are in vitro systems widely used to study ruminal fermentation, but little is known about the microbial populations establishing in them. This study was designed to assess the time evolution of microbial populations in fermenters fed medium- (MC; 50% alfalfa hay : concentrate) and high-concentrate diets (HC; 15 : 85 barley straw : concentrate). Samples from solid (SOL) and liquid (LIQ) content of fermenters were taken immediately before feeding on days 3, 8 and 14 of incubation for quantitative polymerase chain reaction and automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis analyses. In SOL, total bacterial DNA concentration and relative abundance of Ruminococcus flavefaciens remained unchanged over the incubation period, but protozoal DNA concentration and abundance of Fibrobacter succinogenes, Ruminococcus albus and fungi decreased and abundance of methanogenic archaea increased. In LIQ, total bacterial DNA concentration increased with time, whereas concentration of protozoal DNA and abundance of methanogens and fungi decreased. Diet×time interactions were observed for bacterial and protozoal DNA and relative abundance of F. succinogenes and R. albus in SOL, as well as for protozoal DNA in LIQ. Bacterial diversity in SOL increased with time, but no changes were observed in LIQ. The incubated diet influenced all microbial populations, with the exception of total bacteria and fungi abundance in LIQ. Bacterial diversity was higher in MC-fed than in HC-fed fermenters in SOL, but no differences were detected in LIQ. Values of pH, daily production of volatile fatty acids and CH4 and isobutyrate proportions remained stable over the incubation period, but other fermentation parameters varied with time. The relationships among microbial populations and fermentation parameters were in well agreement with those previously reported in in vivo studies. Using 15N as a microbial marker or quantifying total microbial DNA for estimating microbial protein synthesis

  16. The impact of oil price on additions to US proven reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farzin, Y.H.

    2001-01-01

    Departing from Hotelling's assumption of fixed and known reserves, this paper develops an economic model of additions to proven reserves that explicitly incorporates the effects of expected resource price, cumulative reserves development, and technological progress on reserve additions. The model treats additions to proven oil reserves as output of a production process in which drilling wells is a primary input to transform some of oil-in-place into the economic category of proven reserves. Application of the model to US data for the 1950-1995 period provides strong statistical support for the existence of all the three salient effects. We obtain an estimate of the price elasticity of reserve additions (absent from previous studies) which, although statistically highly significant, is rather small. Using this price elasticity estimate, it is shown that if in the face of steady economic growth, and hence, oil consumption, US oil import dependence is to be kept from rising in the future, ceteris paribus, a steady oil price increase in the range of 1.5-4.5% a year is essential

  17. Age estimation and growth pattern of the island grouper, Mycteroperca fusca (Serranidae in an island population on the northwest coast of Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocío Bustos

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Mycteroperca fusca is one of the main predators of the Canarian archipelago coastal marine ecosystem. Nothing is known on the life history or population dynamics of this predatory serranid fish. In this study, age and growth of M. fusca were investigated by annual growth increment counts from 214 fish collected between January 2004 and December 2005. A year’s growth is represented by one opaque and one translucent ring. The island grouper is a slow-growing and long-lived species, with ages up to twenty years recorded. Length at age was described by the von Bertalanffy growth model (L∞=898 mm; k=0.062 year-1; and t0= −3.83 year, the Schnute growth model (y1=262 mm; y2=707 mm; a=0.008; and b=1.98, and the seasonalised von Bertalanffy growth model (L∞=908 mm; k=0.061 year-1; t0= −3.83 year; C=2.58; and ts=0.542. Males and females show differences in growth.

  18. Ecología del crecimiento de una lagartija del género Xenosaurus Peters 1861 (Squamata: Xenosauridae en la Reserva de la Biosfera, Sierra Gorda, Querétaro, México Growth ecology of a lizard of the genus Xenosaurus Peters 1861 (Squamata: Xenosauridae from the Biosphere Reserve, Sierra Gorda, Querétaro, México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. GASTÓN ZAMORA-ABREGO

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Analizamos el crecimiento corporal de una nueva especie de lagartija endémica del género Xenosaurus Peters, ubicada en la Reserva de la Biósfera, Sierra Gorda - Querétaro, México. Se estimaron las tasas de crecimiento corporal y se analizaron a partir de los modelos de crecimiento de Von Bertalanffy, logístico por longitud y logístico por peso. Para describir el patrón de crecimiento de estas lagartijas, utilizamos el modelo logístico por longitud debido a que fue el modelo que tuvo el mejor ajuste a las tasas observadas de crecimiento corporal. No encontramos diferencias significativas entre machos y hembras en el parámetro característico de crecimiento ni en la talla asintótica proyectada. Por lo tanto, se construyó una sola curva de crecimiento para ambos sexos. Los machos alcanzan la madurez sexual a los 24 meses, mientras que las hembras lo hacen hasta los 37 meses. Las tasas de crecimiento independientes de la talla no fueron estadísticamente diferentes entre años (2001, 2002 y 2003, ni entre estaciones (estación húmeda y seca. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la variación en el crecimiento corporal de esta especie, no es causada exclusivamente por las variaciones ambientales, sino más bien por una compleja combinación de factores ambientales y bases genéticas.We analyzed variation in body growth of a new lizard species of the genus Xenosaurus Peters that is endemic to the Biosphere Reserve, Sierra Gorda - Querétaro, México. We calculated body growth rates and analyzed them by means of the Von Bertalanffy, logistic-by-length, and logistic-by-weight growth models. We used the logistic-by-length model to describe the growth pattern of these lizards because this model provided the best fit to the observed body growth rates. No significant differences were found between males and females in the characteristic growth parameter or in the projected asymptotic size. Therefore, a single growth curve was constructed for both

  19. Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence D. Meinert

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The adequacy of mineral resources in light of population growth and rising standards of living has been a concern since the time of Malthus (1798, but many studies erroneously forecast impending peak production or exhaustion because they confuse reserves with “all there is”. Reserves are formally defined as a subset of resources, and even current and potential resources are only a small subset of “all there is”. Peak production or exhaustion cannot be modeled accurately from reserves. Using copper as an example, identified resources are twice as large as the amount projected to be needed through 2050. Estimates of yet-to-be discovered copper resources are up to 40-times more than currently-identified resources, amounts that could last for many centuries. Thus, forecasts of imminent peak production due to resource exhaustion in the next 20–30 years are not valid. Short-term supply problems may arise, however, and supply-chain disruptions are possible at any time due to natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or political complications. Needed to resolve these problems are education and exploration technology development, access to prospective terrain, better recycling and better accounting of externalities associated with production (pollution, loss of ecosystem services and water and energy use.

  20. Mineral resources: Reserves, peak production and the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meinert, Lawrence D.; Robinson, Gilpin; Nassar, Nedal

    2016-01-01

    The adequacy of mineral resources in light of population growth and rising standards of living has been a concern since the time of Malthus (1798), but many studies erroneously forecast impending peak production or exhaustion because they confuse reserves with “all there is”. Reserves are formally defined as a subset of resources, and even current and potential resources are only a small subset of “all there is”. Peak production or exhaustion cannot be modeled accurately from reserves. Using copper as an example, identified resources are twice as large as the amount projected to be needed through 2050. Estimates of yet-to-be discovered copper resources are up to 40-times more than currently-identified resources, amounts that could last for many centuries. Thus, forecasts of imminent peak production due to resource exhaustion in the next 20–30 years are not valid. Short-term supply problems may arise, however, and supply-chain disruptions are possible at any time due to natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes) or political complications. Needed to resolve these problems are education and exploration technology development, access to prospective terrain, better recycling and better accounting of externalities associated with production (pollution, loss of ecosystem services and water and energy use).

  1. Relationships and estimates of longitudinal growth stress in Eucalyptus dunnii at different ages Relações e estimativas da tensão de crescimento longitudinal em Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Fernando Trugilho

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to obtain estimates of longitudinal growth stresses in standing trees of the Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden at eight, thirteen, fifteen and nineteen years of age and to determine their relationships with wood characteristics. The longitudinal growth stresses were indirectly measured by the "CIRAD-Forêt" method and estimated from both the dynamic modulus of elasticity and the modulus of elasticity in tension parallel to the grain. The longitudinal residual strain (LRS and the estimates of the longitudinal growth stresses tended to increase with the age of the material. The LRS correlated positively and significantly with all the growth stresses estimates. The largestes magnitudes were at 13, 15 and 19 years of age. The basic density presented high, positive and significant correlations with the dynamic modulus of elasticity, estimated in the longitudinal direction, for wood saturated and at 12% moisture content, for all the ages assessed. All the growth stresses estimates presented high, positive and significant correlations between themselves.O objetivo desse trabalho foi obter estimativas da tensão de crescimento longitudinal em árvores vivas e verificar a sua relação com algumas características da madeira de Eucalyptus dunnii Maiden aos oito, treze, quinze e dezenove anos de idade. O material foi proveniente da Empresa Procopiak Compensados e Embalagens S.A., localizada no Município de Canoinhas, Santa Catarina. Os níveis de tensão longitudinal de crescimento foram mensurados indiretamente pelo método do "CIRAD-Forêt", na árvore viva, e estimados a partir do módulo de elasticidade dinâmico e do módulo de elasticidade obtido no ensaio de tração paralela à grã. A deformação residual longitudinal (DRL e as estimativas das tensões de crescimento longitudinais apresentaram tendência de aumento, na média, com a idade do material. A DRL apresentou correlação, positiva e significativa, com todas as

  2. Evaluation of Growth Indices and Estimation Seed Yield Loss Threshold of Canola in Response to Various Densities of Crop and Wild Mustard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Anafjeh

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In order to study the effect of various densities of wild mustard (Sinapis arvensis L. on growth indices of Canola (Brassica napus L. in climate of Molathani, Ahvaz, an experiment was conducted in the experimental field of Ramin Agricultural and Natural Resources University, in 2006-2007. The split-plot set of treatments was arranged within randomized complete block design with four replications. Treatments included of wild mustard at five levels (0, 7, 14, 21 and 35 plants m2 and Canola at three densities (60, 80 and 100 plants m2. The results showed that the increase in mustard density rates lead to decreasing total dry matter, leaf area index, crop growth rate, relative growth rate and mean pod dry matter in three canola densities (60, 80 and 100 plants m2. Somewhat the lowest growth indices was obtained in 35 plants mustard (that is the highest mustard density. In addition damage rate of mustard decreased canola seed yield for 7, 14, 21 and 35 plants mustard up to 61, 71, 76 and 91%, respectively. Keywords: Plant density, Competition, Yield loss threshold, Growth indices, Canola, Mustard

  3. [Differences between observed and estimated by hematocrit hemoglobin and its relevance in the diagnosis of anemia among coastal population in Venezuela: analysis of the second national study of human growth and development (SENACREDH)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Torres, Jessica; Echeverría-Ortega, María; Arria-Bohorquez, Melissa; Hidalgo, Glida; Albano-Ramos, Carlos; Sanz, Rafael; Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J

    2011-03-01

    To evaluate the differences between the observed hemoglobin levels and those estimated based on hematocrit in the context of the 2nd National Study of Human Growth and Development of the Venezuelan Population (SENACREDH). 6,004 individuals were chosen by a probabilistic multistage cluster sampling representing 7,286,781 inhabitants from North Central Coastal area (Vargas, Carabobo, Capital District, Aragua and Miranda). Means of observed and estimated hemoglobin (hematocrit/3) were compared, using t test for related samples and linear regression. Mean difference between the values of observed and estimated hemoglobin was -0.3446 ±0.0002 (phemoglobin values. Regression models of hemoglobin on hematocrit showed an r2=0,87. In order to correct the estimation, we propose a new formula for calculating hemoglobin based on haematocrit values: estimated hemoglobin=(Haematocrit/3.135)+ 0.257. There is an overestimation of hemoglobin levels from hematocrit levels and therefore an underestimation of the prevalence of anemia; however, a high positive correlation between them was found, allowing modeling for achieving a better estimation of the hemoglobin from the hematocrit value.

  4. Using Increases in Criminal Deportees from the US to Estimate the Effect of Crime on Economic Growth and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garfield O. Blake

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Previous empirical studies have uncovered little evidence that crime hinders development, possibly due to simultaneity problems. This paper uses the increase in criminal deportees from the US as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of crime on economic growth and development. An increase in the number of criminal deportees received by a country is shown to substantially increase that country’s homicide rate. Using panel data for a sample of 30 Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC countries, I show that the increase in crime is becoming a major obstacle to growth and development in the region.

  5. Fractional Reserve in Banking System

    OpenAIRE

    Valkonen, Maria

    2016-01-01

    This thesis is aimed to provide understanding of the role of the fractional reserve in the mod-ern banking system worldwide and particularly in Finland. The fractional reserve banking is used worldwide, but the benefits of this system are very disputable. On the one hand, experts say that the fractional reserve is a necessary instrument for the normal business and profit making. On the other hand, sceptics openly criticize the fractional reserve system and blame it for fiat money (money n...

  6. Estimating root lifespan of two grasses at contrasting elevation in a salt marsh by applying vitality staining on roots from in-growth cores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouma, T.J.; Hengst, K.; Koutstaal, B.P.; Van Soelen, J.

    2003-01-01

    Contrasting soil conditions caused by different inundation frequencies require different root growth strategies along the elevational gradient of coastal salt marshes. The objective of this study was to examine (1) if root lifespan was shorter in Elymus pycnanthus, a relatively fast-growing

  7. Potential and limitations of local tree ring records in estimating a priori the growth performance of short-rotation coppice plantations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Fischer, Milan; Bartošová, Lenka; Orság, Matěj; Kyncl, T.; Ceulemans, R.; King, J.R.; Büntgen, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 92, sep (2016), s. 12-19 ISSN 0961-9534 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13030 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : dendroecology * plantation site selection * populus nigra * poplar hybrid * weather-growth relationship Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.219, year: 2016

  8. Microbial growth yield estimates from thermodynamics and its importance for degradation of pesticides and formation of biogenic non-extractable residues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brock, Andreas Libonati; Kästner, M.; Trapp, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    In biodegradation studies with isotope-labelled pesticides, fractions of non-extractable residues (NER) remain, but their nature and composition is rarely known, leading to uncertainty about their risk. Microbial growth leads to incorporation of carbon into the microbial mass, resulting in biogen...

  9. Comparison of growth rates estimated by otolith reading of Scorpaena porcus and Scorpaena notata caught on artificial and natural reefs of the northern Adriatic sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Scarcella

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the high number of studies on fish assemblages associated with artificial reefs and offshore platforms, little information exists on the growth rates of fish living on artificial and natural substrates. Age and growth was determined throughout otolith reading on two commercial scorpionfishes (Scorpaena porcus and Scorpaena notata caught in the surroundings of artificial structures (artificial reefs and gas platforms and natural habitats. Von Bertalanffy growth parameters were calculated for each species separately for each site. Age of S. porcus and S. notata ranged from 0 to 8 years and from 0 to 16 years, respectively. Kimura test applied to Von Bertalanffy growth curves indicated that the individuals of both species inhabiting the artificial structures had higher growth parameters than those caught in the natural habitat. The presence of artificial habitats in the northern Adriatic Sea positively affects growth rates and growth performance of both species, likely for the greater prey availability in respect to the natural open sea.Apesar do elevado número de estudos sobre as assembléias de peixes associadas a recifes artificiais e plataformas offshore, existe pouca informação sobre as taxas de crescimento dos peixes que vivem em substratos artificiais e naturais. A idade e crescimento foram determinados pela leitura de otólitos em dois peixes escorpião comerciais (Scorpaena porcus e Scorpaena notata capturados nas imediações de estruturas artificiais (recifes artificiais e plataformas de gás e habitats naturais. Parâmetros de crescimento de von Bertalanffy foram calculadoss separadamente para cada espécie e cada local. A idade de Scorpaena porcus e Scorpaena notata variou entre 0 e 8 anos e 0 e 16 anos, respectivamente. O teste Kimura aplicado às curvas de crescimento de Bertalanffy indicaram que os indivíduos das duas espécies que habitam as estruturas artificiais tinham parâmetros de crescimento mais elevados do que

  10. Biosphere reserves: Attributes for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Cuong, Chu; Dart, Peter; Hockings, Marc

    2017-03-01

    Biosphere reserves established under the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Program aim to harmonise biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Concerns over the extent to which the reserve network was living up to this ideal led to the development of a new strategy in 1995 (the Seville Strategy) to enhance the operation of the network of reserves. An evaluation of effectiveness of management of the biosphere reserve network was called for as part of this strategy. Expert opinion was assembled through a Delphi Process to identify successful and less successful reserves and investigate common factors influencing success or failure. Ninety biosphere reserves including sixty successful and thirty less successful reserves in 42 countries across all five Man and the Biosphere Program regions were identified. Most successful sites are the post-Seville generation while the majority of unsuccessful sites are pre-Seville that are managed as national parks and have not been amended to conform to the characteristics that are meant to define a biosphere reserve. Stakeholder participation and collaboration, governance, finance and resources, management, and awareness and communication are the most influential factors in the success or failure of the biosphere reserves. For success, the biosphere reserve concept needs to be clearly understood and applied through landscape zoning. Designated reserves then need a management system with inclusive good governance, strong participation and collaboration, adequate finance and human resource allocation and stable and responsible management and implementation. All rather obvious but it is difficult to achieve without commitment to the biosphere reserve concept by the governance authorities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Nuclear, uranium, reserves, sustainability, independence; Nucleaire, Uranium, reserves, durabilite, independance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C

    2007-06-15

    In order to evaluate the energy independence concerning the nuclear energy, the author takes the state of the art about the uranium. He details the fuel needs, the reserves on the base of the today available techniques, the reserves on the base of the future techniques and concludes positively on the energy independence for the nuclear. (A.L.B.)

  12. Estimation of breeding values for uniformity of growth in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) using pedigree relationships or single-step genomic evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sae-Lim, Panya; Kause, Antti; Lillehammer, Marie; Mulder, Herman

    2017-01-01

    Background: In farmed Atlantic salmon, heritability for uniformity of body weight is low, indicating that the accuracy of estimated breeding values (EBV) may be low. The use of genomic information could be one way to increase accuracy and, hence, obtain greater response to selection. Genomic

  13. Gravity current model of the volumetric growth of volcanic clouds: remote assessment with satellite imagery and estimation of mass eruption rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pouget, S.; Bursik, M. I.; Sparks, R. S.; Hogg, A. J.; Johnson, C. G.; Singh, T.; Pavolonis, M. J.

    2013-12-01

    The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland in April and May, 2010, brought to light the hazards of airborne volcanic ash and the importance of being able to estimate the concentration of ash with time. This can be done using Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion models (VATD). These models require Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) such as the mass eruption rate (MER), as input. MER can be estimated from volumetric flux assuming gravity current behavior of the atmospheric intrusion. We used a gravity current model for the umbrella cloud and downwind plume in which the predominantly horizontal spreading through the atmosphere is driven by buoyancy forces and wind drag. Ash is advected by these atmospheric motions and settles out relatively slowly under the action of gravity. Given the importance of knowing ESP for VATD, we explored the use of the gravity current model applied to satellite imagery, using the geometric characteristics of ash clouds. To test the gravity current model on the use of satellite imagery, we estimated ESP from five well-studied and well-characterized historical eruptions: Mount St. Helens, 1980; Pinatubo, 1991, Redoubt, 1990; Hekla, 2000 and Eyjafjallajökull, 2010. These tests show that the methodologies yield results comparable to currently accepted methodologies of ESP estimation. We then applied the methodology to umbrella clouds produced by the eruptions of Okmok, 12 July 2008, and Sarychev Peak, 12 June 2009, and to the downwind plume produced by the eruptions of Hekla, 2000; Kliuchevsko'i, 1 October 1994; Kasatochi 7-8 August 2008 and Bezymianny, 1 September 2012; none of which had previous estimates of MER.

  14. Determination of oil and gas reserves. 2. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguilera, R.; MacKay, V.

    2004-01-01

    This book was prepared by more than 40 contributing authors with expertise in a wide range of topics related to oil and gas reserves. It represents a collaborative effort to find definitions and guidelines for the classification of reserves that is acceptable to the oil industry, evaluators, oil and gas companies, financial agencies, securities commissions and government departments. This second edition is an update of the original work that was published in 1994 which compares estimates of reserves and their classification. The new edition includes changes that have occurred in the past 10 years and expands on the processes that are used to estimate reserves. New techniques for assessing risk were also included. The book is divided into four parts entitled: (1) definitions and guidelines for estimating and classifying oil and gas resources and reserves, (2) determination of in-place resources, (3) estimation of recovery factors and forecasting of recoverable hydrocarbons, and (4) prices, economics and markets. The second edition includes new sections dealing with geostatistics, natural gas balance calculations, reserves estimates in naturally fractured reservoirs, and new developments in estimating recovery factors through enhanced recovery methods such as horizontal drilling. The objective was to develop a reference that is of great value to geologists, engineers and technical persons involved in estimating reserves. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Youth Problems on Indian Reservations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underhill, Ruth M., Ed.

    Juvenile delinquency was identified as the major problem affecting youth on Indian reservations. Causes for delinquency which were discussed included culture conflict, expectation of failure, unemployment, failure of homes and parents, discrimination, inadequate education, off-reservation schools, and alcoholism. Needs identified by tribal leaders…

  16. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  17. Application of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions to residuals in the estimation of genetic parameters of growth traits in beef cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, S O; Kizilkaya, K; Garrick, D J; Fernando, R L; Pollak, E J; De Donato, M; Hussain, T; Imumorin, I G

    2013-04-01

    Assumptions of normality in most animal breeding applications may make inferences vulnerable to the presence of outliers. Heavy-tail densities are viable alternatives to normal distributions and provide robustness against unusual or outlying observations when used to model the densities of residual effects. Our objective is to compare estimates of genetic parameters by fitting multivariate normal (MN) or heavy-tail distributions [multivariate Student's t (MSt) and multivariate slash (MS)] for residuals in data of body birth weight (BBW), weaning (WW), and yearling (YW) weight traits in beef cattle. A total of 17,019 weight records for BBW, WW, and YW from 1998 through 2010 from a large commercial cow/calf operation in the sand hills of Nebraska were analyzed. Models included fixed effects of contemporary group and sire breed whereas animal and maternal effects were random and the degrees of freedom (v) was treated as unknown for MSt and MS. Model comparisons using deviance information criteria (DIC) favored MSt over MS and MN models, respectively. The posterior means [and 95% posterior probability intervals (PPI)] of v for the MSt and MS models were 5.28 (4.80, 5.85) and 1.88 (1.76, 2.00), respectively. Smaller values of posterior densities of v for MSt and MS models confirm that the assumption of normally distributed residuals is not adequate for the analysis of BBW, WW, and YW datasets. Posterior mean (PM) and posterior median (PD) estimates of direct and maternal genetic variances were the same and posterior densities of these parameters were found to be symmetric. The 95% PPI estimates from MN and MSt models for BBW did not overlap, which indicates significant difference between PM estimates from MN or MSt models. The observed antagonistic relationship between additive direct and additive maternal effects indicated that genetic evaluation and selection strategies will be sensitive to the assumed model for residuals.

  18. Onset of white striping and progression into wooden breast as defined by myopathic changes underlying Pectoralis major growth. Estimation of growth parameters as predictors for stage of myopathy progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Jacqueline Reedy; Moraes, Luis; Wick, Macdonald; Lilburn, Michael Snell

    2018-02-01

    The broiler industry has incurred significant economic losses due to two muscle myopathies, white striping (WS) and wooden breast (WB), affecting the Pectoralis major (P. major) of commercial broilers. The present study documented macroscopic changes occurring with age/growth in the P. major and P. minor muscles of commercial broilers from day 2 through day 46 (n = 27/day). Distinct myopathic aberrations observed in both breast muscles corresponded to the onset of WB. These distinct morphological changes were used as determinants in developing a ranking system, defining the ontogeny of WB as the following four stages: (1) WS, (2) petechial epimysium haemorrhages, (3) intramuscular haemorrhages and (4) ischaemia. A cumulative logit proportional odds model was used to relate the rank probabilities with the following growth parameters: body weight, P. major and P. minor weight/yield/length/width/depth. The best-fit model included P. major length/width/depth, P. minor width, P. major and P. minor yield as predictors for rank. Increasing P. major depth, P. minor width and P. major yield increased the odds of falling into higher ranks (more severe myopathy). Conversely, increasing P. major length, P. major width and P. minor yield increased the odds of falling into smaller ranks (less severe myopathy). This study describes the macroscopic changes associated with WB ontogeny in the development of a ranking system and the contribution of growth parameters in the determination of rank (WB severity). Results suggest that physical measurements inherent to selection for high-yielding broiler genotypes are contributing to the occurrence and severity of WS and WB.

  19. Essays in the California electricity reserves markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metaxoglou, Konstantinos

    This dissertation examines inefficiencies in the California electricity reserves markets. In Chapter 1, I use the information released during the investigation of the state's electricity crisis of 2000 and 2001 by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to diagnose allocative inefficiencies. Building upon the work of Wolak (2000), I calculate a lower bound for the sellers' price-cost margins using the inverse elasticities of their residual demand curves. The downward bias in my estimates stems from the fact that I don't account for the hierarchical substitutability of the reserve types. The margins averaged at least 20 percent for the two highest quality types of reserves, regulation and spinning, generating millions of dollars in transfers to a handful of sellers. I provide evidence that the deviations from marginal cost pricing were due to the markets' high concentration and a principal-agent relationship that emerged from their design. In Chapter 2, I document systematic differences between the markets' day- and hour-ahead prices. I use a high-dimensional vector moving average model to estimate the premia and conduct correct inferences. To obtain exact maximum likelihood estimates of the model, I employ the EM algorithm that I develop in Chapter 3. I uncover significant day-ahead premia, which I attribute to market design characteristics too. On the demand side, the market design established a principal-agent relationship between the markets' buyers (principal) and their supervisory authority (agent). The agent had very limited incentives to shift reserve purchases to the lower priced hour-ahead markets. On the supply side, the market design raised substantial entry barriers by precluding purely speculative trading and by introducing a complicated code of conduct that induced uncertainty about which actions were subject to regulatory scrutiny. In Chapter 3, I introduce a state-space representation for vector autoregressive moving average models that enables

  20. Estimation of the use of fibrin and collagen membranes as carriers for platelet-derived growth factor-BB (PDGF-BB) in the presence of amoxicillin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalska, Marta; Kozakiewicz, Marcin; Bodek, Andrzej; Bodek, Kazimiera Henryka

    2015-04-01

    The effect of homogeneous fibrin (Fb), collagen (Coll) and composite fibrin-heparin (Fb-Hp), fibrin-collagen (Fb-Coll) membranes on in vitro release of platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF-BB) was evaluated in the presence or absence of amoxicillin using of the ELISA immunoassay test. Amoxicillin concentration was determined spectrophotometrically at 272 nm. The process of the PDGF-BB growth factor and amoxicillin release from the studied membranes was of a two-phase nature in the majority of the systems analysed. The PDGF-BB was released in the highest amount from the Coll membrane (M7) without the presence of amoxicillin--546.2 ± 7.47 pg, t0.5 = 0.88 h and 202.5 ± 6.83 pg, t0.5 = 26.65 h during the first phase and second phase, respectively. The lowest PDGF-BB release was observed from composite M4 (Fb-Hp) membrane--5.88 ± 0.81 pg, t0.5 = 1.69 h; and 110.2 ± 6.48 pg, t0.5 = 855.6 h during first and second phase respectively. An optimal release of amoxicillin was observed in the case of the composite M6 (Fb-Coll) membrane--only in the second phase: 64.2 ± 7.8 μg, t0.5 = 83.5 h. The lowest and delayed amoxicillin release was achieved for M4 membrane (approx. 17.1 ± 1.12 μg, t0.5 = 46.5 h). The results of the PDGF-BB release and amoxicillin from membranes indicated a correlation between the level of release and composition of the film. Our results suggested that fibrin and collagen membranes may be beneficial to enhance periodontal bone regeneration.

  1. Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future

    OpenAIRE

    Lawrence D. Meinert; Gilpin R. Robinson; Nedal T. Nassar

    2016-01-01

    The adequacy of mineral resources in light of population growth and rising standards of living has been a concern since the time of Malthus (1798), but many studies erroneously forecast impending peak production or exhaustion because they confuse reserves with “all there is”. Reserves are formally defined as a subset of resources, and even current and potential resources are only a small subset of “all there is”. Peak production or exhaustion cannot be modeled accurately from reserves. Using ...

  2. World energy demands and coal reserves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Kovács

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the expected increase in the world’s population and taking the estimated improvement in both technology and living standards into account, the paper forecasts energy demands. In 2000, actual energy consumption was 380-400 EJ.year-1, the forecast for the year 2050 is 600-1,050 EJ.year-1, while for the year 2100 it is 900-3,600 EJ.year-1. On the basis of the expected shares of the different fuels (coal, mineral oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, renewable energies, it can be assumed that in 2050 coal demand will be between 122-200 EJ.year-1 while the total coal demand for the 45 years ahead is estimated to be 5,500-6,900 EJ.year-1. This rate of demand basically involves an approximately 2 % increase every year.On the basis of data in relevant literature, the world’s coal reserves are: the industrial coal reserve is 800-1,000 · 109 tons, the geological stock is 5-15 1012 tons and the expected stock is 8-35 1012 tons. The world’s industrial coal reserve (which is economically exploitable at the present technological level guarantees supply for 200 years while the detected geological stock guarantees supply for a round 1,000 years.

  3. Fractional Reserve Banking: Some Quibbles

    OpenAIRE

    Bagus, Philipp; Howden, David

    2010-01-01

    We explore several unaddressed issues in George Selgin’s (1988) claim that the best monetary system to maintain monetary equilibrium is a fractional reserve free banking one. The claim that adverse clearing balances would limit credit expansion in a fractional reserve free banking system is more troublesome than previously reckoned. Both lengthened clearing periods and interbank agreements render credit expansion unrestrained. “The theory of free banking” confuses increases in money held with...

  4. Growth uncertainty and risksharing

    OpenAIRE

    Stefano Athanasoulis; Eric Van Wincoop

    1997-01-01

    How large are potential benefits from global risksharing? In order to answer this question we propose a new methodology that is closely connected with the empirical growth literature. We obtain estimates of residual risk (growth uncertainty) at various horizons from regressions of country-specific growth in deviation from world growth on a wide set of variables in the information set. Since this residual risk can be entirely hedged through risksharing, we use it to obtain a measure of the pot...

  5. Mobilização de reservas durante a germinação das sementes e crescimento das plântulas de Caesalpinia peltophoroides Benth. (Leguminosae-Caesalpinoideae Mobilization of the reserves during germination of seeds and growth of seedlings of Caesalpinia peltophoroides Benth. (Leguminosae-Caesalpinoideae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviana Borges Corte

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho teve como objetivo estudar a mobilização de reservas de sementes de Caesalpinia peltophoroides Benth. durante a germinação e crescimento inicial das plântulas. As variações nas reservas de carbiodratos, lipídios e proteínas foram analisadas desde o período pré-germinativo (0 a 5 dias após a semeadura - DAS até a total senescência e abscisão dos cotilédones, aos 35 DAS, por meio de testes bioquímicos nos cotilédones das sementes. Os resultados indicaram que os lipídios constituem o principal composto de reserva nos cotilédones, contribuindo com cerca de 50% de massa seca. Carboidratos solúveis representaram 32%, as proteínas solúveis 7,7% e o amido 6,8% de massa seca dos cotilédones. Os lipídios sofreram marcante decréscimo entre 5 e 10 dias após a semeadura, período em que se observou elevada taxa de crescimento das plântulas. Carboidratos e proteínas solúveis exibiram tendência gradativa de queda, enquanto no amido, isso quase não foi detectado. A redução do peso de massa seca dos cotilédones foi bem correlacionada com o aumento da biomassa da plântula.This work aimed at studying the mobilization seed reserves during germination and initial growth of seedlings of Caesalpinia peltophoroides Benth. The variations in carbohydrate, lipid and protein reserves were analyzed from the pre-sprouting period (0 to 5 days after sowing -DAS to the total senescence and abscission of seeds. The results showed that lipids constitute the main reserve compound in the cotyledon, contributing with almost 50 % of its dry mass weight. Soluble carbohydrates represent 32 %, the soluble proteins 7.7 % and starch 6.8 % of the dry mass weight of cotyledons. Lipids showed a marked decrease between 5 and 10 days after sowing, period of a high seedling growth rate. Carbohydrates and soluble proteins showed a gradual tendency to decrease, while starch was almost non-detectable. The reduction in cotyledon dry mass of weight

  6. Reserve Retirement Equality: Treating Reserves Fairly While Saving Taxpayer Dollars

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-09

    rata .121 For example, a Reserve who performs the equivalent of five years of active duty, will receive one-fourth the retired pay of his active duty...4,225 per month.124 But because reserve-retirement benefits are based on pro rata years of service, this officer’s years of service for retirement...purposes are 3,146 retirement points divided by 360.125 This results in 8.74 years pro rata years of service.126 His retirement benefits thus are

  7. The estimated nutritive value of three common grassland species at three primary growth harvest dates following ensiling and fractionation of press-cake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph McEniry

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available   In a Green Biorefinery processing green biomass one possible application for the press-cake fraction is as a feedstuff for ruminants. This study investigates the effects of ensiling and fractionation on the estimated nutritive value of three grassland species harvested at different stages of maturity. Perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne L., var. Gandalf, cocksfoot (Dactylis glomerata L., var. Pizza and red clover (Trifolium pratense L., var. Merviot were grown in field plots and harvested and ensiled in laboratory silos. These silages were subsequently fractionated into press-cake and press-juice fractions. Loss of soluble, fermentable organic matter during ensiling increased the relative proportions of fibre and crude protein. Fractionation resulted in the substantial reduction of herbage soluble nutrient and mineral content, increasing the fibre content and reducing digestibility and crude protein. The low energy and protein content of the press-cake fraction, especially at later harvest dates, will limit its use in ruminant diets.

  8. Demand as frequency controlled reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

    2008-09-15

    Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

  9. Thailand's energy security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve and its economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leesombatpiboon, Poonpat

    This dissertation studies Thailand's energy security from three related perspectives, the role of oil on the Thai macroeconomy, the sectoral demand for oil in Thailand, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) policy for the Thai economy. The first part of my dissertation estimates an error correction model of aggregate production function for Thailand. Thai economic growth is modeled as a function of labor, capital, and oil consumption. Unlike previous studies that focus on testing the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, I focus on measuring the elasticity of economic growth with respect to oil consumption and oil prices. I find a cointegration relationship between GDP, capital, labor, and oil consumption. The results suggest that there exists a constant-return-to-scale characteristic in Thailand's aggregate production function with the contribution of labor, oil, and capital to output around 68, 19, and 13 percent respectively. The long-run and short-run contribution of oil consumption to the economy appears to be fairly close, suggesting that oil has a critical role in the Thai economy. In the short run, oil shortages have a much more severe impact on Thai economy than the effects of an oil price shock. For example, a 10 percent shortfall in oil consumption might cause economic growth to shrink by 2 percent within the same year while a sharp10 percent rise in oil prices canlead output growth to a fall by about 0.5 percent. The response of output to increases and decreases in oil prices is found to be asymmetric in the short run. The second part of my dissertation examines the short-run and long-run determinants of final oil consumption in seven major economic sectors in Thailand. Two different approaches are compared. The first approach uses dynamic panel data estimation techniques taking into account oil consumption of the whole economy in an aggregate manner. The second approach employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL

  10. Improved Effectiveness of Reserve Forces During Reserve Duty Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treadaway, Harry H.

    The problem areas of motivation, job enrichment, recruiting, and retention are addressed from the viewpoint of the behavioral scientist. Special attention is given to relating job enrichment and motivation techniques, as successfully demonstrated in industry, to the United State Army Reserve. Research method utilized was a literature review…

  11. Spinning Reserve From Responsive Loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirby, B.J.

    2003-04-08

    Responsive load is the most underutilized reliability resource available to the power system today. It is currently not used at all to provide spinning reserve. Historically there were good reasons for this, but recent technological advances in communications and controls have provided new capabilities and eliminated many of the old obstacles. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC), New York State Reliability Council (NYSRC), and New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) rules are beginning to recognize these changes and are starting to encourage responsive load provision of reliability services. The Carrier ComfortChoice responsive thermostats provide an example of these technological advances. This is a technology aimed at reducing summer peak demand through central control of residential and small commercial air-conditioning loads. It is being utilized by Long Island Power Authority (LIPA), Consolidated Edison (ConEd), Southern California Edison (SCE), and San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E). The technology is capable of delivering even greater response in the faster spinning reserve time frame (while still providing peak reduction). Analysis of demand reduction testing results from LIPA during the summer of 2002 provides evidence to back up this claim. It also demonstrates that loads are different from generators and that the conventional wisdom, which advocates for starting with large loads as better ancillary service providers, is flawed. The tempting approach of incrementally adapting ancillary service requirements, which were established when generators were the only available resources, will not work. While it is easier for most generators to provide replacement power and non-spinning reserve (the slower response services) than it is to supply spinning reserve (the fastest service), the opposite is true for many loads. Also, there is more financial

  12. Are Private Reserves Effective for Jaguar Conservation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmina E Gutiérrez-González

    Full Text Available We present the first study of density and apparent survival for a jaguar (Panthera onca population in northern Mexico using 13 years of camera trap data from 2000 to 2012. We used the Barker robust design model which combines data from closed sampling periods and resight data between these periods to estimate apparent survival and abundance. We identified 467 jaguar pictures that corresponded to 48 jaguar individuals. We included camera type and field technician as covariates for detection probabilities. We used three covariates to evaluate the effect of reserve on jaguar apparent survival: i private reserve creation ii later reserve expansions, and iii cattle ranches' conservation activities. We found that the use of digital cameras in addition to film cameras increased detection probability by a factor of 6x compared with the use of only film cameras (p = 0.34 ± 0.05 and p = 0.05 ± 0.02 respectively in the closed period and more than three times in the open period (R = 0.91 ± 0.08 and R = 0.30 ± 0.13 mixed and film cameras respectively. Our availability estimates showed no temporary emigration and a fidelity probability of 1. Despite an increase of apparent survival probability from 0.47 ± 0.15 to 0.56 ± 0.11 after 2007, no single covariate explained the change in these point estimates. Mean jaguar density was 1.87 ± 0.47 jaguars/100 km2. We found that 13 years of jaguar population monitoring with our sampling size were not enough for detecting changes in survival or density. Our results provide a baseline for studies evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas and the inclusion of ranch owners in jaguar conservation programs and long-term population viability.

  13. Cerebral correlates of cognitive reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whalley, Lawrence J; Staff, Roger T; Fox, Helen C; Murray, Alison D

    2016-01-30

    Cognitive reserve is a hypothetical concept introduced to explain discrepancies between severity of clinical dementia syndromes and the extent of dementia pathology. We examined cognitive reserve in a research programme that followed up a non-clinical sample born in 1921 or 1936 and IQ-tested age 11 years in 1932 or 1947. Structural MRI exams were acquired in about 50% of the sample from whom a subsample were recruited into an additional fMRI study. Here, we summarise findings from seven inter-related studies. These support an understanding of cognitive reserve as a balance between positive life course activity-driven experiences and the negative effects of brain pathologies including cerebrovascular disease and total and regional brain volume loss. Hypothesised structural equation models illustrate the relative causal effects of these positive and negative contributions. Cognitive reserve is considered in the context of choice of interventions to prevent dementia and the opposing effects of cerebrovascular disease and Alzheimer like brain appearances. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Extractive reserves in Brazilian Amazonia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fearnside, P.M (National Institute for Research in the Amazon, Manaus-Amazonas (Brazil))

    1989-06-01

    In 1985 an opportunity arose for maintaining tracts of Amazonian forest under sustainable use. Brazil's National Council of Rubber Tappers and the Rural Worker's Union proposed the creation of a set of reserves of a new type, called extractive reserves. The first six are being established in one of the Brazilian states most threatened by deforestatation. The creation of extractive reserves grants legal protection to forest land traditionally used by rubber tappers, Brazil-nut gatherers, and other extractivists. The term extrativismo (extractivism) in Brazil refers to removing nontimber forest products, such as latex, resins, and nuts, without felling the trees. Approximately 30 products are collected for commercial sale. Many more types of forest materials are gathered, for example as food and medicines, for the extractivists' own use. The reserve proposal is attractive for several reasons related to social problems. It allows the rubber tappers to continue their livelihood rather than be expelled by deforestation. However, it is unlikely that sufficient land will be set aside as extractive reserves to employ all the tappers. Displaced rubber tappers already swell the ranks of urban slum dwellers in Brazil's Amazonian cities, and they have become refugees to continue their profession in the forests of neighboring countries, such as Bolivia.

  15. Symbiotic N2-Fixation Estimated by the 15N Tracer Technique and Growth of Pueraria phaseoloides (Roxb.) Benth. Inoculated with Bradyrhizobium Strain in Field Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarr, Papa Saliou; Okon, Judith Wase; Begoude, Didier Aime Boyogueno; Araki, Shigeru; Ambang, Zachée; Shibata, Makoto; Funakawa, Shinya

    2016-01-01

    This field experiment was established in Eastern Cameroon to examine the effect of selected rhizobial inoculation on N2-fixation and growth of Pueraria phaseoloides. Treatments consisted of noninoculated and Bradyrhizobium yuanmingense S3-4-inoculated Pueraria with three replications each. Ipomoea batatas as a non-N2-fixing reference was interspersed in each Pueraria plot. All the twelve plots received 2 gN/m2 of 15N ammonium sulfate 10% atom excess. At harvest, dry matter yields and the nitrogen derived from atmospheric N2-fixation (%Ndfa) of inoculated Pueraria were significantly (P < 0.05) higher (81% and 10.83%, resp.) than those of noninoculated Pueraria. The inoculation enhanced nodule dry weight 2.44-fold. Consequently, the harvested N significantly (P < 0.05) increased by 83% in inoculated Pueraria, resulting from the increase in N2-fixation and soil N uptake. A loss of 55 to 60% of the N fertilizer was reported, and 36 to 40% of it was immobilized in soil. Here, we demonstrated that both N2-fixing potential of P. phaseoloides and soil N uptake are improved through field inoculations using efficient bradyrhizobial species. In practice, the inoculation contributes to maximize N input in soils by the cover crop's biomass and represent a good strategy to improve soil fertility for subsequent cultivation. PMID:26904363

  16. Genetic-based interactions among tree neighbors: identification of the most influential neighbors, and estimation of correlations among direct and indirect genetic effects for leaf disease and growth in Eucalyptus globulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa E Silva, J; Potts, B M; Gilmour, A R; Kerr, R J

    2017-09-01

    An individual's genes may influence the phenotype of neighboring conspecifics. Such indirect genetic effects (IGEs) are important as they can affect the apparent total heritable variance in a population, and thus the response to selection. We studied these effects in a large, pedigreed population of Eucalyptus globulus using variance component analyses of Mycosphearella leaf disease, diameter growth at age 2 years, and post-infection diameter growth at ages 4 and 8 years. In a novel approach, we initially modeled IGEs using a factor analytic (FA) structure to identify the most influential neighbor positions, with the FA loadings being position-specific regressions on the IGEs. This involved sequentially comparing FA models for the variance-covariance matrices of the direct and indirect effects of each neighbor. We then modeled IGEs as a distance-based, combined effect of the most influential neighbors. This often increased the magnitude and significance of indirect genetic variance estimates relative to using all neighbors. The extension of a univariate IGEs model to bivariate analyses also provided insights into the genetic architecture of this population, revealing that: (1) IGEs arising from increased probability of neighbor infection were not associated with reduced growth of neighbors, despite adverse fitness effects being evident at the direct genetic level; and (2) the strong, genetic-based competitive interactions for growth, established early in stand development, were highly positively correlated over time. Our results highlight the complexities of genetic-based interactions at the multi-trait level due to (co)variances associated with IGEs, and the marked discrepancy occurring between direct and total heritable variances.

  17. An estimate of hydrothermal fluid residence times and vent chimney growth rates based on 210Pb/Pb ratios and mineralogic studies of sulfides dredged from the Juan de Fuca Ridge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadko, D.; Tatsumoto, Mitsunobu

    1985-01-01

    The 210 Pb/Pb ratios across two sulfide samples dredged from the Juan de Fuca Ridge are used to estimate the growth rate of the sulfide material and the residence time of the hydrothermal fluid within the oceanic crust from the onset of basalt alteration. 210 Pb is added to the hydrothermal fluid by two processes: 1) high-temperature alteration of basalt and 2) if the residence time of the fluid is on the order of the 22.3-year half-life of 210 Pb, by in-situ growth from 222 Rn (Krishnaswami and Turekian, 1982). Stable lead is derived only from the alteration of basalt. The 210 Pb/Pb ratio across one sample was proportional 0.5 dpm/10 -6 g Pb, and across the other is was proportional 0.4 dpm/10 -6 g Pb. These values are quite close to the 238 U/Pb ratios of basalts from the area, suggesting that the residence time of the hydrothermal fluid from the onset of basalt alteration is appreciably less than the mean life of 210 Pb, i.e., the time required for ingrowth from the radon. An apparent growth rate of 1.2 cm/yr is derived from the slope of the 210 Pb/Pb curve for one of the samples. This is consistent with its mineralogy and texture which suggest an accretionary pattern of development. There is no obvious sequential growth pattern, and virtually no gradient in 210 Pb/Pb across the second sample. This is consistent with alteration of the original 210 Pb/Pb distribution by extensive remobilization reactions which are inferred from the mineralogic and textural relationships of the sample. (orig.)

  18. Wind offering in energy and reserve markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, T.; Pinson, P.; Morais, H.

    2016-09-01

    The increasing penetration of wind generation in power systems to fulfil the ambitious European targets will make wind power producers to play an even more important role in the future power system. Wind power producers are being incentivized to participate in reserve markets to increase their revenue, since currently wind turbine/farm technologies allow them to provide ancillary services. Thus, wind power producers are to develop offering strategies for participation in both energy and reserve markets, accounting for market rules, while ensuring optimal revenue. We consider a proportional offering strategy to optimally decide upon participation in both markets by maximizing expected revenue from day-ahead decisions while accounting for estimated regulation costs for failing to provide the services. An evaluation of considering the same proportional splitting of energy and reserve in both day- ahead and balancing market is performed. A set of numerical examples illustrate the behavior of such strategy. An important conclusion is that the optimal split of the available wind power between energy and reserve strongly depends upon prices and penalties on both market trading floors.

  19. Hydrocarbon and by-product reserves in British Columbia, 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Statistical data on oil, gas and by-product reserves in British Columbia as of 31 December 2000, as estimated by the Oil and Gas Commission was presented along with a summary of year-end remaining established reserves, estimates of the reserves of oil, gas and by-products, and detailed reserve and pool parameters. British Columbia set a record in 2000 with 753 wells drilled, of which 59 were classed as oil. Most of the oil drilling took place in the Hay River area. 449 gas wells were drilled in 2000, mostly in the Fort St. John area. An additional 120 wells were cased. Raw gas reserves in 2000 increased to 294.8 10 9 m 3 , up slightly from the previous year. Remaining oil reserves at December 31, 2000 were 27,357 10 3 m 3 , an increase of about 4 per cent over 1999. This report also included a historical review of oil and raw gas reserves by geological period and unconnected gas reserves by plant area. Established hydrocarbon reserves, summaries and a project/unit cross-reference listing was included. Oil pools under waterflood or gas injection were also highlighted. Four appendices were also included, one each for reserve and pool parameter listings for crude oil reserves, gas reserves, raw gas analysis, and remaining hydrocarbon products. tabs

  20. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...... balancing measure, which has a high potential and can provide many advantages. Firstly, the background of the research is reviewed, including conventional power system reserves and the electricity demand side potentials. Subsequently, the control logics and corresponding design considerations for the DFR...

  1. Urban Growth in a Fragmented Landscape: Estimating the Relationship between Landscape Pattern and Urban Land Use Change in Germany, 2000-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, R.

    2013-12-01

    One of the highest priorities in the conservation and management of biodiversity, natural resources and other vital ecosystem services is the assessment of the mechanisms that drive urban land use change. Using key landscape indicators, this study addresses why urban land increased 6 percent overall in Germany from 2000-2006. Building on regional science and economic geography research, I develop a model of landscape change that integrates remotely sensed and other geospatial data, and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban land use change observed in German kreise (counties) over the past decade. The results reveal three key landscape mechanisms that drive urban land use change across Germany, aligning with those observed in US studies: (1) the level of fragmentation, (2) the share of designated protected areas, and (3) the share of prime soil. First, as fragmentation of once continuous habitats in the landscape increases, extensive urban growth follows. Second, designated protected areas have the perverse effect of hastening urbanization in surrounding areas. Third, greater shares of prime, productive soil experienced less urban land take over the 6 year period, an effect that is stronger in the former East Germany, where the agricultural sector remains large. The results suggest that policy makers concentrate their conservation efforts on preexisting fragmented land with high shares of protected areas in Germany to effectively stem urban land take. Given that comparative studies of land use change are vital for the scientific community to grasp the wider global process of urbanization and coincident ecological impacts, the methodology employed here is easily exportable to land cover and land use research programs in other fields and geographic areas. Key words: Urban land use change, Ecosystem services, Landscape fragmentation, Remote sensing, Spatial regression models, GermanyOLS and Spatial Autoregressive Model

  2. 77 FR 40253 - Reserve Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-09

    .... The commentators represented Rural Development employees who work with the Multi-Family Housing Direct... their annual over-inflated tax bills and assessments. As a result, rent income funding that could be..., as rents cannot be raised to an amount that will cover all current and future reserve expenses...

  3. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Togeby, Mikael; Østergaard, Jacob

    This report summaries the research outcomes of the project ‘Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve (DFR)’, which has received the support from Energinet.dk’s PSO program, Grant no. 2005-2-6380. The objective of this project is to investigate the technology of using electricity demands for providing...

  4. Reserve Officer Commissioning Program (ROCP) Officer and Reserve Personnel Readiness

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-07

    Women in the Armed Forces. [13] Becker , Sasha O., and Andrea Inchino. 2002. “Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Based on Propensity Scores.” The...service officers into the SMCR. This study looks at the performance of the ROCP candidates and their effect on SMCR personnel readiness. We find that...created to recruit non-prior-service officers into the SMCR. This study looks at the performance of the ROCP candidates and their effect on SMCR

  5. Effects of different international fiscal systems on reserves reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMichael, C.L.

    1996-01-01

    The effects of international fiscal systems on oil and gas reserves evaluation and reporting, was reviewed. The movement in reserves estimates with changing technical, political and economic conditions, was described. Difficulties associated with the evaluation and booking of reserves is largely due to the confusing duplication of terms. For example, explorationists refer to reserves as an undrilled prospect, while engineers refer to them as producing property. The financial analyst refers to reserves of a company, while governments refer to the reserves of the country. The importance of defining reserves with full knowledge of the specific regulations that govern the reporting of reserves externally, and the internal reporting requirements for business planning purposes, was stressed. 2 refs

  6. Effects of sex change on the implications of marine reserves for fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Neil C S; Connolly, Sean R; Mapstone, Bruce D

    2012-04-01

    Marine reserves have become widely used in biodiversity conservation and are increasingly proposed as fisheries management tools. Previous modeling studies have found that reserves may increase or decrease yields, depending on local environmental conditions and on the specific life-history traits of the fishery species. Sex-changing (female-to-male) fish are targets of some of the most important commercial and recreational fisheries in the world. The potential for disproportionate removal of the larger, older sex of such species requires new theory to facilitate our understanding of how reserves will affect the yields of surrounding fisheries, relative to fishes with separate sexes. We investigated this question by modeling the effects of marine reserves on a non-sex-changing and a sex-changing population. We used demographic parameter estimates for the common coral trout as a baseline, and we conducted extensive sensitivity analyses to determine how sustainable yields of sex-changing species are likely to be affected by reserves across a broad range of life-history parameters. Our findings indicate that fisheries for sex-changing species are unlikely to receive the same yield-enhancing benefit that non-sex-changing fisheries enjoy from marine reserves, and that often reserves tend to reduce sustainable yields for a given overall population size. Specifically, the increased egg production and high fertilization success within reserves is more than offset by the reduced egg production and fertilization success in the fished areas, relative to a system in which fishing mortality is distributed more evenly over the entire system. A key reason for this appears to be that fertilization success is reduced, on average, when males are unevenly distributed among subpopulations, as is the case when reserves are present. These findings suggests that, for sex-changing populations, reserves are more suited to rebuilding overfished populations and sustaining fishery viability

  7. Unemployment insurance and reservation wages : evidence from administrative data

    OpenAIRE

    Le Barbanchon, Thomas; Rathelot, Roland; Roulet, Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    Although the reservation wage plays a central role in job search models, empirical evidence on the determinants of reservation wages, including key policy variables such as unemployment insurance (UI), is scarce. In France, unemployed people must declare their reservation wage to the Public Employment Service when they register to claim UI benefits. We take advantage of these rich French administrative data and of a reform of UI rules to estimate the effect of the Potential Benefit Duration (...

  8. Planning outstanding reserves in general insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeva, E.; Pavlov, V.

    2017-10-01

    Each insurance company have to ensure its solvency through presentation of accounts for its own reserves in the start of the year. Usually the task of the actuary is to estimate the state of the company on an annual basis and the expectation of the status of the company for a future period. One of the major problem when calculating the liabilities of the incurred claims, is related to the delay of payments. Object of consideration in the present note are the outstanding claim reserves, which are set aside to cover claims, occurred before the date of the annual account, but still not paid, and related with them expenses. There may be different reasons for the delay of claims settlement. For example, continuation the process of the liquidation of the damage waiting for necessary documents or the presence of controversial cases whose permission takes time, etc. Thus the claims, which determine the outstanding reserves could be divided in the following types: claims, which are reported, but not settled (RBNS); claims, which are incurred but not reported (IBNR); claims, whose case is finished, but it is possible to be reopened. When calculating the reserves for IBNR claims, most widely used is the Chain-ladder method and its modification presented by the Bornhuetter - Ferguson method. For modeling the outstanding claims, the available data should be presented in so called run-off triangle, which underlies in the basis of such methods. The present work provides a review of the algorithm for calculating insurance outstanding claim reserves according to the Chain-ladder method. Using available data for claims related to liability of drivers, registered in Bulgaria an example is constructed to illustrate the methodology of the Chain-Ladder method. Back-testing approach is used for validating the results.

  9. Estimation of breeding values for uniformity of growth in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) using pedigree relationships or single-step genomic evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sae-Lim, Panya; Kause, Antti; Lillehammer, Marie; Mulder, Han A

    2017-03-07

    In farmed Atlantic salmon, heritability for uniformity of body weight is low, indicating that the accuracy of estimated breeding values (EBV) may be low. The use of genomic information could be one way to increase accuracy and, hence, obtain greater response to selection. Genomic information can be merged with pedigree information to construct a combined relationship matrix ([Formula: see text] matrix) for a single-step genomic evaluation (ssGBLUP), allowing realized relationships of the genotyped animals to be exploited, in addition to numerator pedigree relationships ([Formula: see text] matrix). We compared the predictive ability of EBV for uniformity of body weight in Atlantic salmon, when implementing either the [Formula: see text] or [Formula: see text] matrix in the genetic evaluation. We used double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM) based either on a sire-dam (sire-dam DHGLM) or an animal model (animal DHGLM) for both body weight and its uniformity. With the animal DHGLM, the use of [Formula: see text] instead of [Formula: see text] significantly increased the correlation between the predicted EBV and adjusted phenotypes, which is a measure of predictive ability, for both body weight and its uniformity (41.1 to 78.1%). When log-transformed body weights were used to account for a scale effect, the use of [Formula: see text] instead of [Formula: see text] produced a small and non-significant increase (1.3 to 13.9%) in predictive ability. The sire-dam DHGLM had lower predictive ability for uniformity compared to the animal DHGLM. Use of the combined numerator and genomic relationship matrix ([Formula: see text]) significantly increased the predictive ability of EBV for uniformity when using the animal DHGLM for untransformed body weight. The increase was only minor when using log-transformed body weights, which may be due to the lower heritability of scaled uniformity, the lower genetic correlation of transformed body weight with its

  10. Gas reserves, discoveries and production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saniere, A.

    2006-01-01

    Between 2000 and 2004, new discoveries, located mostly in the Asia/Pacific region, permitted a 71% produced reserve replacement rate. The Middle East and the offshore sector represent a growing proportion of world gas production Non-conventional gas resources are substantial but are not exploited to any significant extent, except in the United States, where they account for 30% of U.S. gas production. (author)

  11. Demand Response Spinning Reserve Demonstration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph H.; Nelson-Hoffman, Janine; Torres, Carlos; Hirth,Scott; Yinger, Bob; Kueck, John; Kirby, Brendan; Bernier, Clark; Wright,Roger; Barat, A.; Watson, David S.

    2007-05-01

    The Demand Response Spinning Reserve project is a pioneeringdemonstration of how existing utility load-management assets can providean important electricity system reliability resource known as spinningreserve. Using aggregated demand-side resources to provide spinningreserve will give grid operators at the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) and Southern California Edison (SCE) a powerful, newtool to improve system reliability, prevent rolling blackouts, and lowersystem operating costs.

  12. Indian Reserves: Canada's Developing Nations

    OpenAIRE

    Musto, Richard J.

    1990-01-01

    Indian reserves are the most visible reminder of the separation of aboriginal people from the rest of Canada and other Canadians. Illness patterns and social conditions in Native communities closely parallel those in developing nations. While they continue to have a large burden of infectious diseases, these groups also have an increased incidence of chronic and lifestyle diseases as well as environment-related conditions. Similarities can be seen in urban areas between immigrants from abroad...

  13. Reliability assessment of reserved water disposal with erodible fuse plug

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kosichenko Yuriy Mikhaylovich

    Full Text Available Water disposal constructions are one of the most responsible constructions of reservoir hydrosystem, that’s why the a lot of attention was always paid to the problems of estimating and providing their reliability and safety. The most important function of such objects is providing reliability and safety of other hydraulic constructions and economic assets in afterbay and water head. The authors offer estimation method for reliability and faultless performance of reserved water disposal with erodible fuse plug on low-head water development. In order to estimate the reliability of reserved water disposal with erodible fuse plug the Bayesian treatment was used. The calculation of diagnoses (states of reserved water disposal isoffered in case of diagnostic properties k 1 and k 2. One of the main demands placed onreserved water disposals is erosion of soil plug in case of flood discharge exeedance over the estimated frequency with the full opening of the waste sluice.

  14. Assessment of renewable energy reserves in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Falin; Lu, Shyi-Min; Tseng, Kuo-Tung; Wang, Eric; Lee, Si-Chen

    2010-01-01

    Since Taiwan imports more than 99% of energy supply from foreign countries, energy security has always been the first priority for government to formulate energy policy. The development of renewable energy not only contributes to the independence of energy supply, but also achieves benefits of economic development and environmental protection. Based upon information available to public, the present paper reassesses reserves of various renewable energies in Taiwan. The assessment includes seven kinds of renewable energies, namely, solar energy, wind power, biomass energy, wave energy, tidal energy, geothermal energy and hydropower, which are all commercialized and matured in terms of current technologies. Other renewable energies, which have not proven as matured as the aforementioned ones, are only assessed preliminarily in this paper, such as second generation of biomass, deep geothermal energy, the Kuroshio power generation and ocean thermal energy conversion. According to the estimation of this paper, the reserve of wind energy, up to 29.9 kWh/d/p (i.e., kWh per day per person), is the largest one among seven kinds of renewable energies in Taiwan, followed by 24.27 kWh/d/p of solar energy, 4.55 kWh/d/p of biomass, 4.58 kWh/d/p of ocean energy, 0.67 kWh/d/p of geothermal energy and 16.79 kWh/d/p of hydropower. If regarding biomass as a primary energy, and assuming 40% being the average efficiency to convert primary energy into electricity, the total power of the seven kinds of renewable energy reserves is about 78.03 kWh/d/p, which is equal to 2.75 times of 28.35 kWh/d/p of national power generation in 2008. If the reserves of 54.93 kWh/d/p estimated from other four kinds of renewable energies that have not technically matured yet are also taken into account, it will result that the reserves of renewable energy in Taiwan can be quite abundant. Although the results of the assessment point out that Taiwan has abundant renewable energy resources, the four inherent

  15. Nonparametric estimation of age-specific reference percentile curves with radial smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiaohai; Qu, Yongming; Huang, Yao; Zhang, Xiao; Song, Hanping; Jiang, Honghua

    2012-01-01

    Reference percentile curves represent the covariate-dependent distribution of a quantitative measurement and are often used to summarize and monitor dynamic processes such as human growth. We propose a new nonparametric method based on a radial smoothing (RS) technique to estimate age-specific reference percentile curves assuming the underlying distribution is relatively close to normal. We compared the RS method with both the LMS and the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) methods using simulated data and found that our method has smaller estimation error than the two existing methods. We also applied the new method to analyze height growth data from children being followed in a clinical observational study of growth hormone treatment, and compared the growth curves between those with growth disorders and the general population. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Foreign Exchange Reserves: Bangladesh Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Zahangir Alam

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is about foreign exchangereserves of Bangladesh. The mainpurpose of this study is to the influence of exchange rates on foreign exchangereserves to the Bangladesh context.  Both the primary and secondary data has been used inthis study. The primary data has been collected through a structuredquestionnaire from 50 respondents. The secondary data, namely Bangladeshforeign exchange reserves (FER, Bangladesh current account balance (CAB,Bangladesh capital andfinancial account balance (CFAB, and BDT/USD exchange rates (ER.  This study covers yearly data from July 01,1996 to June 30, 2005 and quarterly data from July 01, 2005 to June 30, 2012. Findingsof this study shows that out of the selected 16 factors affecting foreignexchange reserves, exchange rates occupy the first position, weighted averagescore (WAS being 4.56. Foreign exchange reserves (FER and current accountbalance (CAB have increased by 502.9087% and 1451.218%,whereas capital and financial account (CFAB has decreased by -649.024% on June30, 2012 compared to June 30, 1997. The influence of other factors heldconstant, as ER changes by 285.6894 units due to one unit change in FER, onaverage in the same direction which represents that ER has positive effect on theFER and this relationship is statistically significant.  62.1526 percentof the variation in FER is explained by ER. The outcomes of Breusch-Godfrey test (LM test, ARCHtest, and the Normality test are that there is a serial correlation among residuals, the variance of residuals is notconstant, and the residuals are not normally distributed.

  17. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian

    2011-01-01

    In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  18. Effect of massing on larval growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Aidan P; Wallman, James F

    2014-08-01

    Estimation of minimum postmortem interval commonly relies on predicting the age of blowfly larvae based on their size and an estimate of the temperatures to which they have been exposed throughout their development. The majority of larval growth rate data have been developed using small larval masses in order to avoid excess heat generation. The current study collected growth rate data for larvae at different mass volumes, and assessed the temperature production of these masses, for two forensically important blow fly species, Chrysomya rufifacies and Calliphora vicina. The growth rate of larvae in a small mass, exposed to the higher temperatures equivalent to those experienced by large masses, was also assessed to determine if observed differences were due to the known temperature effects of maggot masses. The results showed that temperature production increased with increasing mass volume, with temperature increases of 11 °C observed in the large Ch. rufifacies masses and increases of 5 °C in the large C. vicina masses. Similarly, the growth rate of the larvae was affected by mass size. The larvae from small masses grown at the higher temperatures experienced by large masses displayed an initial delay in growth, but then grew at a similar rate to those larvae at a constant 23 °C. Since these larvae from masses of equivalent sizes displayed similar patterns of growth rate, despite differing temperatures, and these growth rates differed from larger masses exposed to the same temperatures, it can be concluded that larval growth rate within a mass may be affected by additional factors other than temperature. Overall, this study highlights the importance of understanding the role of massing in larval development and provides initial developmental data for mass sizes of two forensically important blowfly species commonly encountered in Australian forensic casework. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Z' reservation at LEP2

    CERN Document Server

    Montagna, G.; Piccinini, F.; Renard, F.M.; Verzegnassi, C.

    1995-01-01

    We consider the possibility that one extra Z\\equiv Z' exists with arbitrary mass and fermion couplings that do not violate (charged) lepton universality. We show that, in such a situation, a functional relationship is generated between the \\underline{deviations} from the SM values of three leptonic observables of two-fermion production at future e^+e^- colliders that is completely independent of the values of the Z' mass and couplings. This selects a certain region in the 3-d space of the deviations that is \\underline{characteristic} of the model (Z' "reservation"). As a specific and relevant example, we show the picture that would emerge at LEP2 under realistic experimental conditions.

  20. 6 Length-Weight Relationship and Growth.cdr

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    conversion of an equation of growth in length into an equation of growth in ... suggesting allometric growth. Except L. dumerilli, L¥ .... allometric growth. Growth parameters. Fig. 2a shows estimation of growth parameters using Wetherall's method for M. bananensis from the Volta estuary, providing estimate of L¥ as 20.5 cm ...

  1. Oak Ridge Reservation environmental report for 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mucke, P.C.

    1992-10-01

    The Oak Ridge Reservation Environmental Report for 1991 is the 21st in a series that began in 1971. The report documents the annual results of a comprehensive program to estimate the impact of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge operations upon human health and the environment. The report is organized into ten sections that address various aspects of effluent monitoring, environmental surveillance, dose assessment, waste management, and quality assurance. A compliance summary gives a synopsis of the status of each facility relative to applicable state and federal regulations. Data are included for the following: Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant; Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and Oak Ridge K-25 Site. Effluent monitoring and environmental surveillance programs are intended to serve as effective indicators of contaminant releases and ambient contaminant concentrations that have the potential to result in adverse impacts to human health and the environment

  2. North sea: a quarter of total's reserves (excluding the Middle East)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    In 1994, for the fifth successive year, Total increased its proven reserves of hydrocarbons which reach 4.3 Gboe (+ 6% compared to 1993). Outside the Middle East, the reserves show a development of 9% and reach the threshold of 2 Gboe. In 1994, Total's production of hydrocarbons reached 633,000 boe/d (+ 4%), despite a fall of 3% in oil production in the Middle East. Excluding the Middle East, production was increased to 345,000 boe/d (+ 12%), including 212,000 boe/d for gas (+ 20%). Exploration/production investments were 5.8 GF in 1994 (excluding labour) and the development program for reserves and production for the coming years is based on yearly investments of some 6 GF. Total's production in Europe, essentially in the North Sea, was 154,000 boe/d in 1994 (+ 12%). This zone has potential for significant growth for the group which has undertaken exploration surveys in the Western Shetlands and in Haltenbanken. In the British zone, the Dunbar field and its neighbour Ellon were brought into production in December 1994. In the Norwegian zone, the Froy field, was brought into production last June. In the Lille-Frigg field, whose production started in May, initial reserves are estimated at 6,7 Bcm of gas. Total Norge AS also has interests in the producing fields of Ekofisk, Frigg, East-Frigg, Heimdal, Sleipner East, Veslefrikk, Oseberg, Brage, in those of Sleipner West and Huldra (start-up scheduled for 1997) and in Troll (phase 1) which should be producing in 1996. In the Dutch zone, the K4b and K5a blocks brought into production last November hold reserves estimated at 20 Bcm; their production could reach 2 Bcm/year as from 1995. (authors). 1 tab., 1 photo

  3. Fundamental Drivers of the Cost and Price of Operating Reserves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kirby, Brendan [Kirby Consultant; Ma, Ookie [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Operating reserves impose a cost on the electric power system by forcing system operators to keep partially loaded spinning generators available for responding to system contingencies variable demand. In many regions of the United States, thermal power plants provide a large fraction of the operating reserve requirement. Alternative sources of operating reserves, such as demand response and energy storage, may provide more efficient sources of these reserves. However, to estimate the potential value of these services, the cost of reserve services under various grid conditions must first be established. This analysis used a commercial grid simulation tool to evaluate the cost and price of several operating reserve services, including spinning contingency reserves and upward regulation reserves. These reserve products were evaluated in a utility system in the western United States, considering different system flexibilities, renewable energy penetration, and other sensitivities. The analysis demonstrates that the price of operating reserves depend highly on many assumptions regarding the operational flexibility of the generation fleet, including ramp rates and the fraction of fleet available to provide reserves.

  4. Reactive Power Compensation Method Considering Minimum Effective Reactive Power Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Yiyu; Zhang, Kai; Pu, Zhang; Li, Xuenan; Zuo, Xianghong; Zhen, Jiao; Sudan, Teng

    2017-05-01

    According to the calculation model of minimum generator reactive power reserve of power system voltage stability under the premise of the guarantee, the reactive power management system with reactive power compensation combined generator, the formation of a multi-objective optimization problem, propose a reactive power reserve is considered the minimum generator reactive power compensation optimization method. This method through the improvement of the objective function and constraint conditions, when the system load growth, relying solely on reactive power generation system can not meet the requirement of safe operation, increase the reactive power reserve to solve the problem of minimum generator reactive power compensation in the case of load node.

  5. Classification of uranium reserves/resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-08-01

    Projections of future availability of uranium to meet present and future nuclear power requirements depend on the reliability of uranium resource estimates. Lack of harmony of the definition of the different classes of uranium reserves and resources between countries makes the compilation and analysis of such information difficult. The problem was accentuated in the early 1990s with the entry of uranium producing countries from the former Soviet Union, eastern Europe and China into the world uranium supply market. The need for an internationally acceptable reserve/resource classification system and terminology using market based criteria is therefore obvious. This publication was compiled from participant's contributions and findings of the Consultants Meetings on Harmonization of Uranium Resource Assessment Concepts held in Vienna from 22 to 25 June 1992, and two Consultants Meetings on the Development of a More Meaningful Classification of Uranium Resources held in Kiev, Ukraine on 24-26 April 1995 and 20-23 August 1996. This document includes 11 contributions, summary, list of participants of the Consultants Meetings. Each contribution has been indexed and provided with an abstract

  6. Calculating Launch Vehicle Flight Performance Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, John M.; Pinson, Robin M.; Beard, Bernard B.

    2011-01-01

    This paper addresses different methods for determining the amount of extra propellant (flight performance reserve or FPR) that is necessary to reach orbit with a high probability of success. One approach involves assuming that the various influential parameters are independent and that the result behaves as a Gaussian. Alternatively, probabilistic models may be used to determine the vehicle and environmental models that will be available (estimated) for a launch day go/no go decision. High-fidelity closed-loop Monte Carlo simulation determines the amount of propellant used with each random combination of parameters that are still unknown at the time of launch. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulation, several methods were used to calculate the FPR. The final chosen solution involves determining distributions for the pertinent outputs and running a separate Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a best estimate of the required FPR. This result differs from the result obtained using the other methods sufficiently that the higher fidelity is warranted.

  7. Deterministic claims reserving in short-term insuarance contracts ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Claims reserving for general insurance business has developed significantly over the recent past. This has been occasioned by the growth of the insurance market, with the risk underwriting process becoming more and more complex. New insurance products have been developed that cater for the more specific needs of ...

  8. Flexible reserve markets for wind integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Alisha R.

    reserve market, identifying the operational constraints that inhibit a multi-purpose dam facility to meet the desired flexible energy demand. The second study transitions from the hydroelectric facility as the decision maker providing flex reserve services to the wind plant as the decision maker purchasing these services. In this second study, methods for allocating the costs of flex reserve services under different wind policy scenarios are explored that aggregate farms into different groupings to identify the least-cost strategy for balancing the costs of hourly day-ahead forecast errors. The least-cost strategy may be different for an individual wind plant and for the system operator, noting that the least-cost strategy is highly sensitive to cost allocation and aggregation schemes. The latter may also cause cross-subsidies in the cost for balancing wind forecast errors among the different wind farms. The third study builds from the second, with the objective to quantify the amount of flex reserves needed for balancing future forecast errors using a probabilistic approach (quantile regression) to estimating future forecast errors. The results further examine the usefulness of separate flexible markets PJM could use for balancing oversupply and undersupply events, similar to the regulation up and down markets used in Europe. These three studies provide the following results and insights to large-scale wind integration using actual PJM wind farm data that describe the markets and generators within PJM. • Chapter 2 provides an in-depth analysis of the valuable, yet highly-constrained, energy services multi-purpose hydroelectric facilities can provide, though the opportunity cost for providing these services can result in large deviations from the reservoir policies with minimal revenue gain in comparison to dedicating the whole of dam capacity to providing day-ahead, baseload generation. • Chapter 3 quantifies the system-wide efficiency gains and the distributive

  9. Gene flow, population growth and a novel substitution rate estimate in a subtidal rock specialist, the black-faced blennyTripterygion delaisi(Perciformes, Blennioidei, Tripterygiidae) from the Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koblmüller, Stephan; Steinwender, Bernd; Weiß, Sara; Sefc, Kristina M

    2015-11-01

    Population histories depend on the interplay between exogeneous and endogeneous factors. In marine species, phylogeographic and demographic patterns are often shaped by sea level fluctuations, water currents and dispersal ability. Using mitochondrial control region sequences ( n = 120), we infer phylogeographic structure and historic population size changes of a common littoral fish species, the black-faced blenny Tripterygion delaisi (Perciformes, Blennioidei, Tripterygiidae) from the north-eastern Adriatic Sea. We find that Adriatic T. delaisi are differentiated from conspecific populations in the remaining Mediterranean, but display little phylogeographic structure within the Adriatic basin. The pattern is consistent with passive dispersal of planktonic larvae along cyclonic currents within the Adriatic Sea, but limited active dispersal of adults. Demographic reconstructions are consistent with recent population expansion, probably triggered by rising sea levels after the last glacial maximum (LGM). Placing the onset of population growth between the LGM and the warming of surface waters (18 000-13 000 years BP) and employing a novel expansion dating approach, we inferred a substitution rate of 2.61-3.61% per site per MY. Our study is one of only few existing investigations of the genetic structure of animals within the Adriatic basin and is the first to provide an estimate for mitochondrial control region substitution rates in blennioid fishes.

  10. Coupled effects of chemotaxis and growth on traveling bacterial waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Zhifeng; Bouwer, Edward J; Hilpert, Markus

    2014-08-01

    Traveling bacterial waves are capable of improving contaminant remediation in the subsurface. It is fairly well understood how bacterial chemotaxis and growth separately affect the formation and propagation of such waves. However, their interaction is not well understood. We therefore perform a modeling study to investigate the coupled effects of chemotaxis and growth on bacterial migration, and examine their effects on contaminant remediation. We study the waves by using different initial electron acceptor concentrations for different bacteria and substrate systems. Three types of traveling waves can occur: a chemotactic wave due to the biased movement of chemotactic bacteria resulting from metabolism-generated substrate concentration gradients; a growth/decay/motility wave due to a dynamic equilibrium between bacterial growth, decay and random motility; and an integrated wave due to the interaction between bacterial chemotaxis and growth. Chemotaxis hardly enhances the bacterial propagation if it is too weak to form a chemotactic wave or its wave speed is less than half of the growth/decay/motility wave speed. However, chemotaxis significantly accelerates bacterial propagation once its wave speed exceeds the growth/decay/motility wave speed. When convection occurs, it speeds up the growth/decay/motility wave but slows down or even eliminates the chemotactic wave due to the dispersion. Bacterial survival proves particularly important for bacterial propagation. Therefore we develop a conceptual model to estimate the speed of growth/decay/motility waves. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Reserves, resources and eve of bell-shaped curve peak of discovered reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dragicevic, T.; Kolundzic, S.

    2005-01-01

    Through the whole 20. century modern world was marked by accelerated development, and its progress was based, among other things, on sufficient and reliable energy supply. As fossil fuels have represented a large share in total energy sources with ever growing share of oil and natural gas consumption, in the 1990s serious concerns were raised about limited availability of these fuels. In line with the oil reserves life cycle theory presented by bell-shaped curve, M. King Hubbert predicted in 1956 that the U.S.A. would reach the peak of the curve in 1970 (which really happened). Other experts predicted that global oil reserves would reach their peak in the period 1990-2000, and now the new peaks are projected for 2006, 2009, 2013, 2020 and even 2030. Despite the fact that some predictions turned to be false, and despite our inclination to take a more optimistic view, we should face the fact that even the most optimistic 2030 is not far away. The term p eak oil , denoting the period when the known reserves would reach their production peaks, has been increasingly present in the literature and in the media. It does not implicate that oil reserves will disappear in one of the predicted years. Intense oil production will continue, but total reserves will decline. According to predictions, natural gas reserves are not expected to reach their peak before the end of the 21st century. Methane hydrates reserves could protrude throughout the 22nd century. Nevertheless, the peak oil phenomenon has serious implications for the mankind and for oil companies. The changes that will affect oil companies will not be equal for super-majors or majors and medium-sized and small-sized oil companies. Different are the ways that the changes will affect the countries with strong economies and those with weaker ones. Modern economies rely on fuel consumption. Moving people and goods from one place to another is not only the matter of transport and leisure. Availability and accessibility of

  12. Federal Reserve System Semiannual Regulatory Agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-20

    ... [The Regulatory Plan and Unified Agenda of Federal Regulatory and Deregulatory Actions] [Federal Reserve System Semiannual Regulatory Agenda ] Part XXI Federal Reserve System Semiannual Regulatory Agenda... Flexibility Agenda AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ACTION: Semiannual regulatory...

  13. Reserves in western basins: Part 1, Greater Green River basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-01

    This study characterizes an extremely large gas resource located in low permeability, overpressured sandstone reservoirs located below 8,000 feet drill depth in the Greater Green River basin, Wyoming. Total in place resource is estimated at 1,968 Tcf. Via application of geologic, engineering and economic criteria, the portion of this resource potentially recoverable as reserves is estimated. Those volumes estimated include probable, possible and potential categories and total 33 Tcf as a mean estimate of recoverable gas for all plays considered in the basin. Five plays (formations) were included in this study and each was separately analyzed in terms of its overpressured, tight gas resource, established productive characteristics and future reserves potential based on a constant $2/Mcf wellhead gas price scenario. A scheme has been developed to break the overall resource estimate down into components that can be considered as differing technical and economic challenges that must be overcome in order to exploit such resources: in other words, to convert those resources to economically recoverable reserves. Total recoverable reserves estimates of 33 Tcf do not include the existing production from overpressured tight reservoirs in the basin. These have estimated ultimate recovery of approximately 1.6 Tcf, or a per well average recovery of 2.3 Bcf. Due to the fact that considerable pay thicknesses can be present, wells can be economic despite limited drainage areas. It is typical for significant bypassed gas to be present at inter-well locations because drainage areas are commonly less than regulatory well spacing requirements.

  14. Cognitive and Brain Reserve in Prodromal Huntington Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonner-Jackson, Aaron; Long, Jeffrey D.; Westervelt, Holly; Tremont, Geoffrey; Aylward, Elizabeth; Paulsen, Jane S.

    2013-01-01

    Background Huntington disease (HD) is associated with decline in cognition and progressive morphological changes in brain structures. Cognitive reserve may represent a mechanism by which disease-related decline may be delayed or slowed. The current study examined the relationship between cognitive reserve and longitudinal change in cognitive functioning and brain volumes among prodromal (gene expansion-positive) HD individuals. Methods Participants were genetically-confirmed individuals with prodromal HD enrolled in the PREDICT-HD study. Cognitive reserve was computed as the composite of performance on a lexical task estimating premorbid intellectual level, occupational status, and years of education. Linear mixed effects regression (LMER) was used to examine longitudinal changes on 4 cognitive measures and 3 brain volumes over approximately 6 years. Results Higher cognitive reserve was significantly associated with a slower rate of change on one cognitive measure (Trail Making Test, Part B) and slower rate of volume loss in two brain structures (caudate, putamen) for those estimated to be closest to motor disease onset. This relationship was not observed among those estimated to be further from motor disease onset. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate a relationship between cognitive reserve and both a measure of executive functioning and integrity of certain brain structures in prodromal HD individuals. PMID:23702309

  15. On Comparison of Stochastic Reserving Methods with Bootstrapping

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liivika Tee

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider the well-known stochastic reserve estimation methods on the basis of generalized linear models, such as the (over-dispersed Poisson model, the gamma model and the log-normal model. For the likely variability of the claims reserve, bootstrap method is considered. In the bootstrapping framework, we discuss the choice of residuals, namely the Pearson residuals, the deviance residuals and the Anscombe residuals. In addition, several possible residual adjustments are discussed and compared in a case study. We carry out a practical implementation and comparison of methods using real-life insurance data to estimate reserves and their prediction errors. We propose to consider proper scoring rules for model validation, and the assessments will be drawn from an extensive case study.

  16. Demonstrated reserve base for coal in New Mexico. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, G.K.

    1995-02-01

    The new demonstrated reserve base estimate of coal for the San Juan Basin, New Mexico, is 11.28 billion short tons. This compares with 4.429 billion short tons in the Energy Information Administration`s demonstrated reserve base of coal as of January 1, 1992 for all of New Mexico and 2.806 billion short tons for the San Juan Basin. The new estimate includes revised resource calculations in the San Juan Basin, in San Juan, McKinley, Sandoval, Rio Arriba, Bernalillo and Cibola counties, but does not include the Raton Basin and smaller fields in New Mexico. These estimated {open_quotes}remaining{close_quotes} coal resource quantities, however, include significant adjustments for depletion due to past mining, and adjustments for accessibility and recoverability.

  17. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves: 1990 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The primary focus of this report is to provide an accurate estimate of US proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These estimates were considered essential to the development, implementation, and evaluation of natural energy policy and legislation. In the past, the government and the public relied upon industry estimates of proved reserves. These estimates were prepared jointly by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the American Gas Association (AGA) and published in their annual report, Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas Liquids, and Natural Gas in the United States and Canada. However, API and AGA ceased publication of reserves estimates after their 1979 report. By the mid-1970's, various federal agencies had separately established programs to collect data on, verify, or independently estimate domestic proved reserves of crude oil or natural gas. Each program was narrowly defined to meet the particular needs of the sponsoring agency. In response to recognized need for unified, comprehensive proved reserves estimates, Congress in 1977 required the Department of Energy to prepare such estimates. To meet this requirement, the EIA's reserves program was undertaken to establish a unified, verifiable, comprehensive, and continuing statistical series for proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas. The program was expanded to include proved reserves of natural gas liquids in the 1979 report. 36 refs., 11 figs., 16 tabs

  18. 24 CFR 891.605 - Replacement reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserve. 891.605... 8 Assistance § 891.605 Replacement reserve. (a) Establishment of reserve. The Borrower shall establish and maintain a replacement reserve to aid in funding extraordinary maintenance, and repair and...

  19. 24 CFR 891.405 - Replacement reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserve. 891.405....405 Replacement reserve. (a) Establishment of reserve. The Owner shall establish and maintain a replacement reserve to aid in funding extraordinary maintenance and repair and replacement of capital items...

  20. Oak Ridge Reservation environmental report for 1990

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, A.R. (ed.)

    1991-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide information to the public about the impact of the US Department of Energy's (DOE's) facilities located on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) on the public and the environment. It describes the environmental surveillance and monitoring activities conducted at and around the DOE facilities operated by Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Preparation and publication of this report is in accordance with DOE Order 5400.1. The order specifies a publication deadline of June of the following year for each calendar year of data. The primary objective of this report is to summarize all information collected for the previous calendar year regarding effluent monitoring, environmental surveillance, and estimates of radiation and chemical dose to the surrounding population. When multiple years of information are available for a program, trends are also evaluated. The first seven sections of Volume 1 of this report address this objective. The last three sections of Volume 1 provide information on solid waste management, special environmental studies, and quality assurance programs.

  1. Cognitive Reserve: Implications for Assessment and Intervention

    OpenAIRE

    Stern, Yaakov

    2013-01-01

    The concept of reserve is used to explain the observation that some individuals function better than others in the presence of brain pathology. This paper reviews the concept of reserve from its theoretical basis to the implication of reserve for clinical practice. A distinction between brain reserve, referring to individual differences in the anatomic substrate, and cognitive reserve, referring to differences in the flexibility or adaptivity of cognitive networks, is useful. Epidemiologic ev...

  2. Assessment of the Secondary Copper Reserves of Nations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maung, Kyaw Nyunt; Hashimoto, Seiji; Mizukami, Mizuki; Morozumi, Masataka; Lwin, Cherry Myo

    2017-04-04

    The sustainable use of metals demands consideration not only of primary metals in the natural environment but also of secondary metals in society as alternative resources. This study applied our proposed classification framework of secondary resources to copper (1) to investigate the applicability of the framework and (2) to assess the secondary copper reserves and resources of selected countries. To estimate secondary copper reserves, we introduced the variable "secondary reserve ratio": the fraction of in-use copper stocks that is technically and economically recoverable. Our estimates showed that the United States and China have secondary copper reserves of 44 and 33 Mt, respectively, and showed that global secondary copper reserves are about 30% of global primary reserves. The application of the classification framework showed that considerable amounts of secondary copper resources are in landfills, which are potential targets of future extraction of secondary copper through landfill mining. Overall, the classification framework provides a better understanding of the current size of available secondary resources and waste deposits. It also highlights the need for integrated management of primary and secondary resources.

  3. Growth conditions of 0-group plaice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cardoso, J.F.M.F.; Freitas, V.; de Paoli, H.; Witte, J.IJ.; van der Veer, H.W.

    2016-01-01

    Growth studies based on population-based growth estimates are limited by the fact that they do not take into account differences in age/size structure within the population. To overcome these problems, otolith microstructure analysis is often used to estimate individual growth. Here, we analyse

  4. How does tooth eruption relate to vertical mandibular growth displacement?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sean Shih-Yao; Buschang, Peter H

    2011-06-01

    Our objectives were to investigate the eruptive patterns of the mandibular teeth and assess their associations with mandibular growth displacements. Cephalograms for a mixed-longitudinal sample of 124 French-Canadian girls were evaluated between 10 and 15 years of age. Vertical mandibular displacement and mandibular eruption were evaluated by using cranial and mandibular superimpositions, respectively. Multilevel modeling procedures were used to estimate each subject's growth change over time. Stepwise multiple regressions were used to determine the amount and relative magnitudes of variations in mandibular eruption explained by mandibular growth displacement, controlling for vertical maxillary tooth movements. Cubic polynomial models explained between 91% and 98% of the variations in eruption and vertical growth displacement. All curves showed acceleration of eruption until approximately 12 years of age, after which eruption decelerated. The eruption of the mandibular teeth demonstrated greater relative variability than did vertical mandibular growth displacements. Independent of the overall movements of the maxillary molars, inferior mandibular growth displacement explained approximately 54% of the variation in mandibular molar eruption between 10.5 and 14.5 years of age. Inferior mandibular growth displacement and dental eruption followed similar patterns of change during adolescence. Based on their associations and the differences in variability identified, mandibular eruption appears to compensate for or adapt to growth displacements. Copyright © 2011 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Role of nature reserves in giant panda protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Dongwei; Li, Junqing

    2018-02-01

    Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is a flagship species in nature conservation of the world; to protect this species, 67 nature reserves have been established in China. To evaluate the protection effect of giant panda nature reserves, we analyzed the variation of giant panda number and habitat area of 23 giant panda nature reserves of Sichuan province based on the national survey data released by State Forestry Administration and Sichuan Forestry Department. Results showed that from the third national survey to the fourth, giant panda number and habitat area of 23 giant panda nature reserves of Sichuan province failed to realize the significant increase. Furthermore, we found that the total population growth rate of 23 nature reserves in the last 12 years was lower than those of the province total of Sichuan and the national total of China, and the total habitat area of the 23 nature reserves was decreasing in the last 12 years, but the province total and national total were all increasing. We propose that giant panda protection should pay more attention to how to improve the protective effects of nature reserves.

  6. Aid and growth regressions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Tarp, Finn

    2001-01-01

    . There are, however, decreasing returns to aid, and the estimated effectiveness of aid is highly sensitive to the choice of estimator and the set of control variables. When investment and human capital are controlled for, no positive effect of aid is found. Yet, aid continues to impact on growth via...... investment. We conclude by stressing the need for more theoretical work before this kind of cross-country regressions are used for policy purposes....

  7. Coal: resources, reserves and production - Panorama 2008; Charbon: ressources, reserves et production - Panorama 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    For the French, whose last coal mine closed in 2004, the 'comeback' of coal as a political issue may seem a bit surprising. Even if coal is still used in domestic industry and to produce electricity, it is many years since it was used as the primary energy source for electricity production. This situation, specific to France and certain European countries, is not at all typical of the world situation: in the face of surging energy demand, coal - whose reserves have been estimated by the World Energy Council to cover 145 years of consumption at the current rate - seems to be an energy of the future and an alternative to oil, natural gas and nuclear power for the production of electricity.

  8. Aid Effectiveness on Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doucouliagos, Hristos; Paldam, Martin

    The AEL (aid effectiveness literature) is econo¬metric studies of the macroeconomic effects of development aid. It contains about 100 papers of which 68 are reduced form estimates of theeffect of aid on growth in the recipient country. The raw data show that growth is unconnected to aid......, but the AEL has put so much structure on the data that all results possible have emerged. The present meta study considers both the best-set of the 68 papers and the all-set of 543 regressions published. Both sets have a positive average aid-growth elasticity, but it is small and insignificant: The AEL has...... betweenstudies is real. In particular, the aid-growth association is stronger for Asian countries, and the aid-growth association is shown to have been weaker in the 1970s....

  9. Aid and Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Tarp, Finn

    The micro-macro paradox has been revived. Despite broadly positive evaluations at the micro and meso-levels, recent literature has turned decidedly pessimistic with respect to the ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth. Policy implications, such as the complete cessation of aid to Africa......, are being drawn on the basis of fragile evidence. This paper first assesses the aid-growth literature with a focus on recent contributions. The aid-growth literature is then framed, for the first time, in terms of the Rubin Causal Model, applied at the macroeconomic level. Our results show that aid has...... a positive and statistically significant causal effect on growth over the long run with point estimates at levels suggested by growth theory. We conclude that aid remains an important tool for enhancing the development prospects of poor nations....

  10. Commercial helium reserves, continental rifting and volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, C. J.; Barry, P. H.; Hillegonds, D.; Fontijn, K.; Bluett, J.; Abraham-James, T.; Danabalan, D.; Gluyas, J.; Brennwald, M. S.; Pluess, B.; Seneshens, D.; Sherwood Lollar, B.

    2017-12-01

    Helium has many industrial applications, but notably provides the unique cooling medium for superconducting magnets in medical MRI scanners and high energy beam lines. In 2013 the global supply chainfailed to meet demand causing significant concern - the `Liquid Helium Crisis' [1]. The 2017 closure of Quatar borders, a major helium supplier, is likely to further disrupt helium supply, and accentuates the urgent need to diversify supply. Helium is found in very few natural gas reservoirs that have focused 4He produced by the dispersed decay (a-particle) of U and Th in the crust. We show here, using the example of the Rukwa section of the Tanzanian East African Rift, how continental rifting and local volcanism provides the combination of processes required to generate helium reserves. The ancient continental crust provides the source of 4He. Rifting and associated magmatism provides the tectonic and thermal mechanism to mobilise deep fluid circulation, focusing flow to the near surface along major basement faults. Helium-rich springs in the Tanzanian Great Rift Valley were first identified in the 1950's[2]. The isotopic compositions and major element chemistry of the gases from springs and seeps are consistent with their release from the crystalline basement during rifting [3]. Within the Rukwa Rift Valley, helium seeps occur in the vicinity of trapping structures that have the potential to store significant reserves of helium [3]. Soil gas surveys over 6 prospective trapping structures (1m depth, n=1486) show helium anomalies in 5 out of the 6 at levels similar to those observed over a known helium-rich gas reservoir at 1200m depth (7% He - Harley Dome, Utah). Detailed macroseep gas compositions collected over two days (n=17) at one site allows us to distinguish shallow gas contributions and shows the deep gas to contain between 8-10% helium, significantly increasing resource estimates based on uncorrected values (1.8-4.2%)[2,3]. The remainder of the deep gas is

  11. Estimativas de parâmetros genéticos de características de crescimento em um rebanho Caracu selecionado para peso ao sobreano Estimates of genetic parameters for growth traits of Caracu cattle selected for yearling weight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Márcio Cinachi Pereira

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Foram analisados registros de 1.698 animais de um rebanho Caracu selecionado para peso pós-desmame entre os anos 1979 e 2002 com o objetivo de verificar a existência de variabilidade genética aditiva nas características de crescimento e suas interpretações. As características analisadas foram: peso ao nascer (PN, peso padronizado aos 120 dias (P120, peso ao desmame padronizado aos 210 dias (P210, peso de machos ao final da prova de ganho de peso (P378 e ganhos diários do nascimento ao desmame (GND, dos machos na prova de ganho de peso (G112, do desmame ao sobreano em machos (GDSm, peso de fêmeas padronizado aos 550 dias (P550 e ganhos das fêmeas em pastagem do desmame ao sobreano (GDSf, além da altura da garupa a um ano em machos (ALTm e ao sobreano em fêmeas (ALTf. Os componentes de (co variâncias, as herdabilidades e as correlações genéticas foram estimados por máxima verossimilhança restrita não-derivativa utilizando-se o software MTDFREML. As estimativas de herdabilidade e os erros-padrão foram iguais a 0,34±0,06; 0,11±0,05; 0,13±0,05; 0,11±0,05; 0,35±0,09; 0,42±0,09; 0,31±0,09; 0,13±0,06; 0,21±0,08; 0,55±0,11; 0,51±0,09 para PN, P120, P210, GND, P378, P550, GDSm, GDSf, G112, ALTm e ALTf, respectivamente. As correlações genéticas entre as características foram de moderadas a altas e positivas, com exceção de algumas correlações com a característica GDSf e o PN. A seleção com base no desempenho do próprio indivíduo, como tem sido realizada, proporciona progresso genético nas características de seleção direta, assim como em algumas características com alta correlação genética.Records of growth traits of 1,698 animals born from 1979 to 2002 in a Caracu herd selected for yearling weight were used to estimate genetic parameters for birth weight (PN, weight at 4 months adjusted at 120 days (P120, weaning weight adjusted at 210 days (P210, daily weight gain from birth to weaning (GND, weight

  12. Cognitive Reserve: Implications for Assessment and Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Yaakov

    2014-01-01

    The concept of reserve is used to explain the observation that some individuals function better than others in the presence of brain pathology. This paper reviews the concept of reserve from its theoretical basis to the implication of reserve for clinical practice. A distinction between brain reserve, referring to individual differences in the anatomic substrate, and cognitive reserve, referring to differences in the flexibility or adaptivity of cognitive networks, is useful. Epidemiologic evidence indicates that a set of life exposures including higher educational and occupational attainment, and engaging in leisure activities is associated with a lower risk of incident dementia, suggesting that these life exposures may enhance cognitive reserve. This provides a basis for controlled clinical studies can test specific exposures that may enhance reserve. The concept of cognitive reserve also has important implications for clinical practice in terms of diagnosis and prognosis. PMID:23941972

  13. Clipboard: Unraveling the mystery of cognitive reserve

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Biosciences; Volume 40; Issue 2. Clipboard : Unraveling the mystery of cognitive reserve ... Keywords. Aging; Alzheimer's; bilingualism; cognitive reserve; dementia; Down's; education; enrichment; environment; learning; long term potentiation; LTP; memory; neuroepigenetics; plasticity ...

  14. Transforming the Reserve Component: Four Essays

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Binnendijk, Hans; Baranick, Michael J; Bell, Raymond E., Jr; Cordero, Gina; Duncan, Stephen M; Holshek, Christopher; Wentz, Larry

    2005-01-01

    This volume contains four essays on various aspects of the Reserve Component. We publish it at a time when Reserves are serving overseas at historically high rates and when new missions like homeland security demand their attention...

  15. 5 CFR 330.610 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 330.610 Section 330.610 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS RECRUITMENT, SELECTION, AND... Employees § 330.610 [Reserved] ...

  16. 5 CFR 330.603 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 330.603 Section 330.603 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS RECRUITMENT, SELECTION, AND... Employees § 330.603 [Reserved] ...

  17. Microclimates of the arid lands ecology reserve, 1968--1975

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thorp, J. M.; Hinds, W. T.

    1977-04-01

    The climatology of the Hanford Reservation Arid Lands Ecology (ALE) Reserve does not end, of course, with this report. As this goes to press the arid lands of eastern Washington are experiencing the driest winter in 65 years of record. Even without including this winter's (1976-77) data in our summaries here, we have been fortunate to have had a very dry winter (1972-73) and a very wet winter (1973-74) occur within our first 8 years of climatological measurements on the Reserve. Our primary purpose with this report has been to analyze the first 8 years of climatological measurements from the ALE Reserve and to identify persistent spatial variations between stations or groups of stations. From these variations we have been able to recognize several distinct, but related microclimates occurring within the Reserve. Secondly, we have shown that significant correlations exist between each microclimate on the Reserve and that of the Hanford Meteorological Station nearby. These correlations, coupled with the 30-year weather record at the HMS and possibly with the 32-year (1912-1944) record at the Hanford townsite, allow ALE Reserve temperature and precipitation estimates to be made for years prior to the ALE climatology program.

  18. Poverty and corruption compromise tropical forest reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, S Joseph; Sanchez-Azofeifa, G Arturo; Portillo-Quintero, Carlos; Davies, Diane

    2007-07-01

    We used the global fire detection record provided by the satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to determine the number of fires detected inside 823 tropical and subtropical moist forest reserves and for contiguous buffer areas 5, 10, and 15 km wide. The ratio of fire detection densities (detections per square kilometer) inside reserves to their contiguous buffer areas provided an index of reserve effectiveness. Fire detection density was significantly lower inside reserves than in paired, contiguous buffer areas but varied by five orders of magnitude among reserves. The buffer: reserve detection ratio varied by up to four orders of magnitude among reserves within a single country, and median values varied by three orders of magnitude among countries. Reserves tended to be least effective at reducing fire frequency in many poorer countries and in countries beset by corruption. Countries with the most successful reserves include Costa Rica, Jamaica, Malaysia, and Taiwan and the Indonesian island of Java. Countries with the most problematic reserves include Cambodia, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Sierra Leone and the Indonesian portion of Borneo. We provide fire detection density for 3964 tropical and subtropical reserves and their buffer areas in the hope that these data will expedite further analyses that might lead to improved management of tropical reserves.

  19. 24 CFR 572.125 - Replacement reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserves. 572.125...) Homeownership Program Requirements-Implementation Grants § 572.125 Replacement reserves. (a) Purpose. A single replacement reserve may be established for the homeownership program only if HUD determines it is necessary to...

  20. 24 CFR 880.602 - Replacement reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserve. 880.602... Replacement reserve. (a) A replacement reserve must be established and maintained in an interest-bearing account to aid in funding extraordinary maintenance and repair and replacement of capital items. (1) Part...

  1. 24 CFR 891.745 - Replacement reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserve. 891.745... and Individuals-Section 162 Assistance § 891.745 Replacement reserve. The general requirements for the replacement reserve are provided in § 891.605. For projects funded under §§ 891.655 through 891.790, the...

  2. Reserve evaluation of minerals at NUCLEBRAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.; Guerra, P.A.G.; Vinha, C.A.G. da

    1980-10-01

    The method used for the reserve evaluation of minerals, particularly of uranium, as used worldwide, and specially at NUCLEBRAS is described. This is done through a series of procedures envolving basic definitions, reserve evaluation methods (conventional, statistical and geoestatistical), data management, use of computer systems, classification and evaluation of reserves. (Author) [pt

  3. John Brainerd and the First Indian Reservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Susanne Banta

    1979-01-01

    Describes the humanitarian founding in 1758 of the nation's first reservation--the Brotherton reservation for New Jersey's Lenni Lenape (Algonquin) Indians. The people were demoralized, sick, and decimated in numbers; and so the venture failed. In 1801 those few remaining sold the reservation and moved to join related tribes in New York. (DS)

  4. The Nature and Use of Copper Reserve and Resource Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Dennis P.; Wright, Nancy A.; Coakley, George J.

    1981-01-01

    Copper reserve, resource, and production data can be combined to produce disaggregated resource estimates and trends and, when combined with demand forecasts, can be used to predict future exploration and development requirements. Reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties due mainly to incomplete exploration and rapidly changing economic conditions. United States' reserve estimates in the past have been low mainly because knowledge of the magnitude of very large porphyry-copper deposits has been incomplete. Present estimates are considerably more reliable because mining firms tend to drill out deposits fully before mining and to release their reserve estimates to the public. The sum of reserves and past production yields an estimate of the total ore, total metal contained in ore, and average grade of ore originally in each of the deposits known in the United States. For most deposits, estimates of total copper in ore are low relative to the total copper in mineralized rock, and many estimates are strongly affected by the economic behavior of mining firms. A better estimate of the real distribution of copper contained in deposits can be obtained by combining past production data with resource estimates. Copper resource data are disaggregated into categories that include resources in undeveloped deposits similar to those mined in the past, resources in mines closed because of unfavorable economic conditions, resources in deep deposits requiring high-cost mining methods, arid resources in deposits located in areas where environmental restrictions have contributed to delays in development. The largest resource is located in the five largest porphyry deposits. These deposits are now being mined but the resources are not included in the present mining plan. Resources in this last category will not contribute to supply until some future time when ores presently being mined are depleted. A high correlation exists between total copper contained in deposits and annual

  5. Classification system of the mineral reserves and resources of Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovinyukov, V.I.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes the system used to classify the resources and reserves of all minerals and fuels in Ukraine. The classification system is part of an official procedure determined by the Ukrainian State Commission on Reserves. Following preparation of resource estimates the results are registered with the State, which maintains an official inventory of all mineral resources. This paper compares the Ukrainian system to, and finds it compatible with the United Nations International Framework of resource classification. The UN system is based on economics of production and mineability. (author)

  6. Viscoelastic model of tungsten 'fuzz' growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasheninnikov, S I

    2011-01-01

    A viscoelastic model of fuzz growth is presented. The model describes the main features of tungsten fuzz observed in experiments. It gives estimates of fuzz growth rate and temperature range close to experimental ones.

  7. Macro vs. Micro Methods in Non-Life Claims Reserving (an Econometric Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur Charpentier

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Traditionally, actuaries have used run-off triangles to estimate reserve (“macro” models, on aggregated data. However, it is possible to model payments related to individual claims. If those models provide similar estimations, we investigate uncertainty related to reserves with “macro” and “micro” models. We study theoretical properties of econometric models (Gaussian, Poisson and quasi-Poisson on individual data, and clustered data. Finally, applications in claims reserving are considered.

  8. Cognitive reserve in ageing and Alzheimer's disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Yaakov

    2012-01-01

    The concept of reserve accounts for individual differences in susceptibility to age-related brain changes or Alzheimer's disease-related pathology. There is evidence that some people can tolerate more of these changes than others and still maintain function. Epidemiologic studies suggest that lifetime exposures including educational and occupational attainment, and leisure activities in late life, can increase this reserve. For example, there is a reduced risk of developing Alzheimer's disease in individuals with higher educational or occupational attainment. It is convenient to think of two types of reserve: brain reserve, which refers to actual differences in the brain itself that may increase tolerance of pathology, and cognitive reserve. Cognitive reserve refers to individual differences in how tasks are performed that may allow some people to be more resilient than others. The concept of cognitive reserve holds out the promise of interventions that could slow cognitive aging or reduce the risk of dementia. PMID:23079557

  9. Neural electrical activity and neural network growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafarov, F M

    2018-02-09

    The development of central and peripheral neural system depends in part on the emergence of the correct functional connectivity in its input and output pathways. Now it is generally accepted that molecular factors guide neurons to establish a primary scaffold that undergoes activity-dependent refinement for building a fully functional circuit. However, a number of experimental results obtained recently shows that the neuronal electrical activity plays an important role in the establishing of initial interneuronal connections. Nevertheless, these processes are rather difficult to study experimentally, due to the absence of theoretical description and quantitative parameters for estimation of the neuronal activity influence on growth in neural networks. In this work we propose a general framework for a theoretical description of the activity-dependent neural network growth. The theoretical description incorporates a closed-loop growth model in which the neural activity can affect neurite outgrowth, which in turn can affect neural activity. We carried out the detailed quantitative analysis of spatiotemporal activity patterns and studied the relationship between individual cells and the network as a whole to explore the relationship between developing connectivity and activity patterns. The model, developed in this work will allow us to develop new experimental techniques for studying and quantifying the influence of the neuronal activity on growth processes in neural networks and may lead to a novel techniques for constructing large-scale neural networks by self-organization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Dietary arginine and linear growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Vught, Anneke J A H; Dagnelie, Pieter C; Arts, Ilja C W

    2013-01-01

    and slopes were defined to estimate the association between arginine intake and growth velocity, including the following covariates: sex; age; baseline height; energy intake; puberty stage at 7-year follow-up and intervention/control group. The association between arginine intake and growth velocity......The amino acid arginine is a well-known growth hormone (GH) stimulator and GH is an important modulator of linear growth. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of dietary arginine on growth velocity in children between 7 and 13 years of age. Data from the Copenhagen School...

  11. Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    During fiscal year 1992, the reserves generated $473 million in revenues, a $181 million decrease from the fiscal year 1991 revenues, primarily due to significant decreases in oil and natural gas prices. Total costs were $200 million, resulting in net cash flow of $273 million, compared with $454 million in fiscal year 1991. From 1976 through fiscal year 1992, the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves generated more than $15 billion in revenues and a net operating income after costs of $12.5 billion. In fiscal year 1992, production at the Naval Petroleum Reserves at maximum efficient rates yielded 26 million barrels of crude oil, 119 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 164 million gallons of natural gas liquids. From April to November 1992, senior managers from the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves held a series of three workshops in Boulder, Colorado, in order to build a comprehensive Strategic Plan as required by Secretary of Energy Notice 25A-91. Other highlights are presented for the following: Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1--production achievements, crude oil shipments to the strategic petroleum reserve, horizontal drilling, shallow oil zone gas injection project, environment and safety, and vanpool program; Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 2--new management and operating contractor and exploration drilling; Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 3--steamflood; Naval Oil Shale Reserves--protection program; and Tiger Team environmental assessment of the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming

  12. Growth Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... problem or disease. The pituitary gland makes growth hormone, which stimulates the growth of bone and other tissues. Children who have too little ... gland tumor, which is not cancer. Too much growth hormone can cause gigantism in children, where their bones and their body grow too much. In adults, ...

  13. Buying versus exploring for reserves in the Canadian oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayer, F.

    1992-01-01

    The issue of a business strategy for Canadian oil companies focussed on either buying reserves or on exploration is examined. A measurement of the amount of merger and acquisition (M ampersand A) transactions vs the amount of exploration activity shows that the number of M ampersand A transactions has risen from 262 in 1989 to an estimated 1,500 in 1992. This sales activity has partly resulted from major companies selling assets to pay down debt. In the same period, the number of licensed exploration wells has decreased from 2,800 to 1,500. An analysis of statistics on the costs of acquisitions vs cost of finding and development shows acquisitions costs are lower in all cases. In addition, the median acquisition price has been falling steadily. Buying reserves has other advantages, including the fact that reserves can be added more quickly, lower risk, and readily available financing. Exploration, however, has its advantages, including the potential for very large reserve additions, higher tax deductions and incentives available, less competition from the industry, and low input costs. The acquisition vs exploration strategies are illustrated using the stock performance of two companies. If the acquisitions trend continues, there will be increases in the profitability of existing reserves, the number of companies, and tax receipts, However, in the long term there will be a drop in Canadian reserves and a significant reduction in the size of the industry. 14 figs., 2 tabs

  14. A Policy Analysis of Reserve Retirement Reform

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    adapted their manning requirements to this retention. Perhaps tasks and jobs have been designed to accommodate the reten - tion profile produced by the...a reward for a long career of service, a benefit to help transition to the civilian economy, and a means of securing the reten - tion of career...to determine their likely effect on active reten - tion, reserve affiliation after leaving an active component, reserve retention, and reserve

  15. Reserve valuation in electric power systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Pablo Ariel

    Operational reliability is provided in part by scheduling capacity in excess of the load forecast. This reserve capacity balances the uncertain power demand with the supply in real time and provides for equipment outages. Traditionally, reserve scheduling has been ensured by enforcing reserve requirements in the operations planning. An alternate approach is to employ a stochastic formulation, which allows the explicit modeling of the sources of uncertainty. This thesis compares stochastic and reserve methods and evaluates the benefits of a combined approach for the efficient management of uncertainty in the unit commitment problem. Numerical studies show that the unit commitment solutions obtained for the combined approach are robust and superior with respect to the traditional approach. These robust solutions are especially valuable in areas with a high proportion of wind power, as their built-in flexibility allows the dispatch of practically all the available wind power while minimizing the costs of operation. The scheduled reserve has an economic value since it reduces the outage costs. In several electricity markets, reserve demand functions have been implemented to take into account the value of reserve in the market clearing process. These often take the form of a step-down function at the reserve requirement level, and as such they may not appropriately represent the reserve value. The value of reserve is impacted by the reliability, dynamic and stochastic characteristics of system components, the system operation policies, and the economic aspects such as the risk preferences of the demand. In this thesis, these aspects are taken into account to approximate the reserve value and construct reserve demand functions. Illustrative examples show that the demand functions constructed have similarities with those implemented in some markets.

  16. Reserve reporting from a banker's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, B.O.

    1996-01-01

    A banker's perspective of oil and gas reserve reporting was presented. Topics chosen for discussion emphasized oil and gas lending, and the type of capital which is most relevant to the oil and gas industry. The concept of capital differentiation, potential worst case, and least specialization, were explained. An explanation of the reasons for the lender's different perspective on reserves was given. Methods that banks use to limit risk, and the role that reserve reports play in loan approvals were also reviewed

  17. The Growth-Inequality Association:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnskov, Christian

    2008-01-01

    This note suggests that the association between income inequality and economic growth rates might arguably depend on the political ideology of incumbent governments. Estimates indicate that under leftwing governments, inequality is negatively associated with growth while the association is positive...... under rightwing governments. This may provide a qualification to recent studies of inequality....

  18. When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that 'when non-renewable energy will be diminished' is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. This paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In the Econometrics model, the main exogenous variables affecting oil, coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006. The models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption, while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price. The econometrics model for coal reserves, however, expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price. Consequently, huge reserves of coal and low-level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future, under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source. (author)

  19. Reservation system with graphical user interface

    KAUST Repository

    Mohamed, Mahmoud A. Abdelhamid

    2012-01-05

    Techniques for providing a reservation system are provided. The techniques include displaying a scalable visualization object, wherein the scalable visualization object comprises an expanded view element of the reservation system depicting information in connection with a selected interval of time and a compressed view element of the reservation system depicting information in connection with one or more additional intervals of time, maintaining a visual context between the expanded view and the compressed view within the visualization object, and enabling a user to switch between the expanded view and the compressed view to facilitate use of the reservation system.

  20. Electricity regulation and economic growth

    OpenAIRE

    Costa, M. Teresa (Maria Teresa), 1951-; Garcia-Quevedo, Jose; Trujillo-Baute, Elisa

    2018-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of electricity regulation on economic growth. Although the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth has been extensively analysed in the empirical literature, this framework has not been used to estimate the effect of electricity regulation on economic growth. Understanding this effect is essential for the assessment of regulatory policy. Specifically, we assess the effects of two major areas of regulation, rene...

  1. Radioecological monitoring of small vertebrates from reserves and arable lands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vojtovich, A.M.; Afonin, V.Yu.

    2002-01-01

    The radioecological monitoring of small vertebrates (frogs and mice) from wild populations was performed. The animals were caught in the heavily radiocontaminated area of Polesskij Radioecological Reserve, Berezinskij Biosphere Reserve and arable lands. Animals from more radiocontaminated areas displayed the highest Cs 137 and Sr 90 accumulation, especially in the first years after the Chernobyl disaster. The radionuclide concentration (Cs 137, Sr 90 and Pu 239,240) in frogs in the vicinity of Cherikov (Mogilev region) is characteristic of water soluble forms of radionuclides. The short-time tendency to concentration of .(-.emitted radionuclides was revealed in frogs in the areas of Berezinskij Reserve and in Minsk district. Incorporated Cs 137 was the main internal dose-forming factor for animals. Contribution of Sr 90 to the absorbed dose was significant in frogs till 1990. The next generations did not have such a high level of Sr 90 accumulation. The Cs 137 accumulation in rodents was the highest in 1990 and then dropped. The Sr 90 accumulation in bank voles was stable with slow tendency to growth. In the territory of Polesskij Reserve in 1991 the hot particles were registered in mice lungs and Pu 239 was observed in liver. In 10...15 year after Chernobyl disaster the highest Cs 137 content was registered in frogs and mice from more contaminated with radiation sites in Polesskij Reserve. In recent years the osteotropic radionuclides form the main dose-forming factor. (authors)

  2. Anthropogenic disturbances jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical rainforest reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Ortiz-Rodríguez, Iván A; Piñero, Daniel; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Sarukhán, José

    2016-05-10

    Anthropogenic disturbances affecting tropical forest reserves have been documented, but their ecological long-term cumulative effects are poorly understood. Habitat fragmentation and defaunation are two major anthropogenic threats to the integrity of tropical reserves. Based on a long-term (four decades) study, we document how these disturbances synergistically disrupt ecological processes and imperil biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning at Los Tuxtlas, the northernmost tropical rainforest reserve in the Americas. Deforestation around this reserve has reduced the reserve to a medium-sized fragment (640 ha), leading to an increased frequency of canopy-gap formation. In addition, hunting and habitat loss have caused the decline or local extinction of medium and large herbivores. Combining empirical, experimental, and modeling approaches, we support the hypothesis that such disturbances produced a demographic explosion of the long-lived (≈120 y old, maximum height of 7 m) understory palm Astrocaryum mexicanum, whose population has increased from 1,243-4,058 adult individuals per hectare in only 39 y (annual growth rate of ca 3%). Faster gap formation increased understory light availability, enhancing seed production and the growth of immature palms, whereas release from mammalian herbivory and trampling increased survival of seedlings and juveniles. In turn, the palm's demographic explosion was followed by a reduction of tree species diversity, changing forest composition, altering the relative contribution of trees to forest biomass, and disrupting litterfall dynamics. We highlight how indirect anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., palm proliferation) on otherwise protected areas threaten tropical conservation, a phenomenon that is currently eroding the planet's richest repositories of biodiversity.

  3. Diagnóstico precoce da restrição do crescimento fetal pela estimativa ultra-sonográfica do peso fetal Early diagnosis of intra-uterine growth restriction by ultrasonographic estimation of fetal weight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Marta Martins

    2005-02-01

    disease, no history of addictions, gemellarity or malformed fetuses. All mothers performed ultrasonographic exams at the 25th and 27th weeks for estimation of the fetal weight. Results: The exams were able to detect the inadequate development of those fetuses small-for-gestational-age group. The cut-off values for echographic fetal weight were established as 775 grams and 1015 grams for the 25th and 27th weeks, respectively A mathematical model was developed, capable of quantifying the probability of newborns exhibiting insufficient intra-uterine growth, being small-for-gestational-age.

  4. The VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey (VIPERS). An unbiased estimate of the growth rate of structure at ⟨z⟩ = 0.85 using the clustering of luminous blue galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad, F. G.; Granett, B. R.; Guzzo, L.; Bel, J.; Branchini, E.; de la Torre, S.; Moscardini, L.; Peacock, J. A.; Bolzonella, M.; Garilli, B.; Scodeggio, M.; Abbas, U.; Adami, C.; Bottini, D.; Cappi, A.; Cucciati, O.; Davidzon, I.; Franzetti, P.; Fritz, A.; Iovino, A.; Krywult, J.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fèvre, O.; Maccagni, D.; Małek, K.; Marulli, F.; Polletta, M.; Pollo, A.; Tasca, L. A. M.; Tojeiro, R.; Vergani, D.; Zanichelli, A.; Arnouts, S.; Coupon, J.; De Lucia, G.; Ilbert, O.; Moutard, T.

    2018-02-01

    We used the VIMOS Public Extragalactic Redshift Survey (VIPERS) final data release (PDR-2) to investigate the performance of colour-selected populations of galaxies as tracers of linear large-scale motions. We empirically selected volume-limited samples of blue and red galaxies as to minimise the systematic error on the estimate of the growth rate of structure fσ8 from the anisotropy of the two-point correlation function. To this end, rather than rigidly splitting the sample into two colour classes we defined the red or blue fractional contribution of each object through a weight based on the (U - V ) colour distribution. Using mock surveys that are designed to reproduce the observed properties of VIPERS galaxies, we find the systematic error in recovering the fiducial value of fσ8 to be minimised when using a volume-limited sample of luminous blue galaxies. We modelled non-linear corrections via the Scoccimarro extension of the Kaiser model (with updated fitting formulae for the velocity power spectra), finding systematic errors on fσ8 of below 1-2%, using scales as small as 5 h-1 Mpc. We interpret this result as indicating that selection of luminous blue galaxies maximises the fraction that are central objects in their dark matter haloes; this in turn minimises the contribution to the measured ξ(rp,π) from the 1-halo term, which is dominated by non-linear motions. The gain is inferior if one uses the full magnitude-limited sample of blue objects, consistent with the presence of a significant fraction of blue, fainter satellites dominated by non-streaming, orbital velocities. We measured a value of fσ8 = 0.45 ± 0.11 over the single redshift range 0.6 ≤ z ≤ 1.0, corresponding to an effective redshift for the blue galaxies ⟨z⟩=0.85. Including in the likelihood the potential extra information contained in the blue-red galaxy cross-correlation function does not lead to an appreciable improvement in the error bars, while it increases the systematic error

  5. Cardio-vascular reserve index (CVRI) during exercise complies with the pattern assumed by the cardiovascular reserve hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segel, Michael J; Bobrovsky, Ben-Zion; Gabbay, Itay E; Ben-Dov, Issahar; Reuveny, Ronen; Gabbay, Uri

    2017-05-01

    The Cardio-vascular reserve index (CVRI) had been empirically validated in diverse morbidities as a quantitative estimate of the reserve assumed by the cardiovascular reserve hypothesis. This work evaluates whether CVRI during exercise complies with the cardiovascular reserve hypothesis. Retrospective study based on a database of patients who underwent cardio-pulmonary exercise testing (CPX) for diverse indications. Patient's physiological measurements were retrieved at four predefined CPX stages (rest, anaerobic threshold, peak exercise and after 2min of recovery). CVRI was individually calculated retrospectively at each stage. Mean CVRI at rest was 0.81, significantly higher (p0.05). CVRI after 2min of recovery rose considerably, most in the group with the best exercise capacity and least in those with the lowest exercise capacity. CVRI during exercise fits the pattern predicted by the cardiovascular reserve hypothesis. CVRI decreased with exercise reaching a minimum at peak exercise and rising with recovery. The CVRI nadir at peak exercise, similar across groups classified by exercise capacity, complies with the assumed exhaustion threshold. The clinical utility of CVRI should be further evaluated. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. 48 CFR 4.501 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 4.501 Section 4.501 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS Electronic Commerce in Contracting 4.501 [Reserved...

  7. 7 CFR 300.1 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 300.1 Section 300.1 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE INCORPORATION BY REFERENCE § 300.1 [Reserved...

  8. 7 CFR 305.4 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 305.4 Section 305.4 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE PHYTOSANITARY TREATMENTS § 305.4 [Reserved...

  9. 50 CFR 216.42 - Photography. [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Photography. [Reserved] 216.42 Section 216.42 Wildlife and Fisheries NATIONAL MARINE FISHERIES SERVICE, NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC... MAMMALS Special Exceptions § 216.42 Photography. [Reserved] ...

  10. 9 CFR 73.1a - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 73.1a Section 73.1a Animals and Animal Products ANIMAL AND PLANT HEALTH INSPECTION SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE INTERSTATE TRANSPORTATION OF ANIMALS (INCLUDING POULTRY) AND ANIMAL PRODUCTS SCABIES IN CATTLE § 73.1a [Reserved] ...

  11. 12 CFR 614.4710 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 614.4710 Section 614.4710 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS Banks for Cooperatives and Agricultural Credit Banks Financing International Trade § 614.4710 [Reserved] ...

  12. 40 CFR 406.43 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 406.43 Section 406.43 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS GRAIN MILLS POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Bulgur Wheat Flour Milling Subcategory § 406.43 [Reserved] ...

  13. 40 CFR 406.23 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 406.23 Section 406.23 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS GRAIN MILLS POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Corn Dry Milling Subcategory § 406.23 [Reserved] ...

  14. 40 CFR 406.13 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 406.13 Section 406.13 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS GRAIN MILLS POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Corn Wet Milling Subcategory § 406.13 [Reserved] ...

  15. 24 CFR 891.855 - Replacement reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserves. 891.855... § 891.855 Replacement reserves. (a) The mixed-finance owner shall establish and maintain a replacement... the funds will be used to pay for capital replacement costs for the Section 202 or 811 supportive...

  16. 22 CFR 40.69 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false [Reserved] 40.69 Section 40.69 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE VISAS REGULATIONS PERTAINING TO BOTH NONIMMIGRANTS AND IMMIGRANTS UNDER THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT, AS AMENDED Illegal Entrants and Immigration Violators § 40.69 [Reserved] ...

  17. Body reserves in intra-African migrants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nwaogu, Chima; Cresswell, Will

    Avian migration has been shown to be a life history strategy for surviving environmental resource variability, but it requires increased body reserves for long distance flight. Fat reserves make excellent energy stores for barrier crossing, whereas proteins generate less energy for the same mass of

  18. 21 CFR 211.170 - Reserve samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reserve samples. 211.170 Section 211.170 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS: GENERAL... of deterioration unless visual examination would affect the integrity of the reserve sample. Any...

  19. 8 CFR 325.1 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 8 Aliens and Nationality 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 325.1 Section 325.1 Aliens and Nationality DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY NATIONALITY REGULATIONS NATIONALS BUT NOT CITIZENS OF THE UNITED STATES; RESIDENCE WITHIN OUTLYING POSSESSIONS § 325.1 [Reserved] ...

  20. 30 CFR 253.44 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 253.44 Section 253.44 Mineral Resources MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR OFFSHORE OIL SPILL FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY FOR OFFSHORE FACILITIES Requirements for Submitting OSFR Information § 253.44 [Reserved] ...

  1. 14 CFR 33.13 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 33.13 Section 33.13 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: AIRCRAFT ENGINES Design and Construction; General § 33.13 [Reserved] ...

  2. 14 CFR 35.13 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 35.13 Section 35.13 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: PROPELLERS Design and Construction § 35.13 [Reserved] ...

  3. 14 CFR 35.11 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 35.11 Section 35.11 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION AIRCRAFT AIRWORTHINESS STANDARDS: PROPELLERS Design and Construction § 35.11 [Reserved] ...

  4. Reserve selection using nonlinear species distribution models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moilanen, Atte

    2005-06-01

    Reserve design is concerned with optimal selection of sites for new conservation areas. Spatial reserve design explicitly considers the spatial pattern of the proposed reserve network and the effects of that pattern on reserve cost and/or ability to maintain species there. The vast majority of reserve selection formulations have assumed a linear problem structure, which effectively means that the biological value of a potential reserve site does not depend on the pattern of selected cells. However, spatial population dynamics and autocorrelation cause the biological values of neighboring sites to be interdependent. Habitat degradation may have indirect negative effects on biodiversity in areas neighboring the degraded site as a result of, for example, negative edge effects or lower permeability for animal movement. In this study, I present a formulation and a spatial optimization algorithm for nonlinear reserve selection problems in grid-based landscapes that accounts for interdependent site values. The method is demonstrated using habitat maps and nonlinear habitat models for threatened birds in the Netherlands, and it is shown that near-optimal solutions are found for regions consisting of up to hundreds of thousands grid cells, a landscape size much larger than those commonly attempted even with linear reserve selection formulations.

  5. 7 CFR 1709.2 Policy. - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1709.2 Policy. Section 1709.2 Policy. Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.2 Policy. [Reserved] ...

  6. 7 CFR 1709.202 Policy. - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1709.202 Policy. Section 1709.202 Policy... AGRICULTURE ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES Bulk Fuel Revolving Fund Grant Program § 1709.202 Policy. [Reserved] ...

  7. 7 CFR 3560.65 - Reserve account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Reserve account. 3560.65 Section 3560.65 Agriculture... DIRECT MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING LOANS AND GRANTS Direct Loan and Grant Origination § 3560.65 Reserve account... account that meets requirements of § 3560.306. At a minimum, the borrower must agree to make monthly...

  8. 21 CFR 720.5 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 7 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false [Reserved] 720.5 Section 720.5 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) COSMETICS VOLUNTARY FILING OF COSMETIC PRODUCT INGREDIENT COMPOSITION STATEMENTS § 720.5 [Reserved] ...

  9. 39 CFR 111.5 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 111.5 Section 111.5 Postal Service UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE POST OFFICE SERVICES [DOMESTIC MAIL] GENERAL INFORMATION ON POSTAL SERVICE § 111.5 [Reserved] ...

  10. 75 FR 44067 - Conservation Reserve Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-28

    ... amending the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) regulations to implement provisions of the Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008 (the 2008 Farm Bill). The 2008 Farm Bill generally extends the existing... Commodity Credit Corporation 7 CFR Part 1410 RIN 0560-AH80 Conservation Reserve Program AGENCY: Commodity...

  11. 7 CFR 1780.8 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1780.8 Section 1780.8 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE LOANS AND GRANTS General Policies and Requirements § 1780.8 [Reserved] ...

  12. 7 CFR 1779.79 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1779.79 Section 1779.79 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.79 [Reserved] ...

  13. 7 CFR 1780.5 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1780.5 Section 1780.5 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE LOANS AND GRANTS General Policies and Requirements § 1780.5 [Reserved] ...

  14. 7 CFR 1779.82 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1779.82 Section 1779.82 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.82 [Reserved] ...

  15. 7 CFR 1779.74 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1779.74 Section 1779.74 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.74 [Reserved] ...

  16. 7 CFR 1780.12 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1780.12 Section 1780.12 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE LOANS AND GRANTS General Policies and Requirements § 1780.12 [Reserved] ...

  17. 7 CFR 1779.26 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1779.26 Section 1779.26 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.26 [Reserved] ...

  18. 20 CFR 410.394 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false [Reserved] 410.394 Section 410.394 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL COAL MINE HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT OF 1969, TITLE IV-BLACK LUNG BENEFITS (1969- ) Relationship and Dependency § 410.394 [Reserved] ...

  19. 40 CFR 26.1124 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 26.1124 Section 26.1124 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GENERAL PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS Basic Ethical...-nursing Adults § 26.1124 [Reserved] ...

  20. 26 CFR 1.46-10 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true [Reserved] 1.46-10 Section 1.46-10 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES Rules for Computing Credit for Investment in Certain Depreciable Property § 1.46-10 [Reserved] ...