WorldWideScience

Sample records for reserve growth estimate

  1. Estimating Foreign Exchange Reserve Adequacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Hakim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Accumulating foreign exchange reserves, despite their cost and their impacts on other macroeconomics variables, provides some benefits. This paper models such foreign exchange reserves. To measure the adequacy of foreign exchange reserves for import, it uses total reserves-to-import ratio (TRM. The chosen independent variables are gross domestic product growth, exchange rates, opportunity cost, and a dummy variable separating the pre and post 1997 Asian financial crisis. To estimate the risky TRM value, this paper uses conditional Value-at-Risk (VaR, with the help of Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle (GJR model to estimate the conditional volatility. The results suggest that all independent variables significantly influence TRM. They also suggest that the short and long run volatilities are evident, with the additional evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive past shocks. The VaR, which are calculated assuming both normal and t distributions, provide similar results, namely violations in 2005 and 2008.

  2. Estimation of gas reserves in North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laherrere, J.

    2001-01-01

    If the oil market is global, the gas market is divided into three zones: North America, Europe and Asia. The official forecast of the future demand of North America gas is optimist as it is based on estimates of resources which are ten times those of the proved reserves. The poor practice (SEC rules) of proved reserves (when the rest of the world uses proven+probable) leads to a constant revision and a growth of the past discoveries, showing well a wrong evaluation. The official databases are then very poor, even those of the US federal domain, which have to be public. The study of the technical data of reserves of US, Canada and Mexico leads to a more pessimistic estimation of the ultimate reserves and then to the future local supply. In the Gulf of Mexico (the main hope), the production of natural gas in shallow water decline and the discoveries in the deep-water are mainly oil. The non-conventional gas seems to level. But the future demand is also too optimistic, based on cheap price and on a steady growth. However the local gas supply will be likely insufficient, and the demand will need imported liquefied natural gas. (author)

  3. Reserve growth during financial volatility in a technologically challenging world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, Timothy R.; Gautier, Donald L.

    2010-01-01

    Reserve growth (growth-to-known) is the addition of oil and gas quantities to reported proved or proved-plus-probable reserves in discovered fields. The amount of reserve growth fluctuates through time with prevailing economic and technological conditions. Most reserve additions are the result of investment in field operations and in development technology. These investments can be justified by higher prices of oil and gas, the desire to maintain cash flow, and by greater recovery efficiency in well established fields. The price/cost ratio affects decisions for field abandonment and (or) implementation of improved recovery methods. Although small- to medium-size fields might show higher percentages of reserve growth, a relatively few giant fields contribute most volumetric reserve growth, indicating that companies may prefer to invest in existing fields with low geologic and production risk and an established infrastructure in order to increase their price/cost relationship. Whereas many previous estimates of reserve growth were based on past trends of reported reserves, future reserve growth is expected to be greatly affected by financial volatility and fluctuating economic and technological conditions.

  4. Natural gas reserve growth in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woronuk, R. [Canadian Gas Potential Committee, Calgary, AB (Canada)]|[GasEnergy Strategies Inc., Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    An appreciation study of a natural gas reservoir is a component of assessing its ultimate reserve potential. The Canadian Gas Potential Committee (CGPC) defines appreciation as the change in a reserve estimate from a previously booked pool or basin. Basins cannot appreciate through the addition of new pools. Ultimate potential includes all of the following: cumulative production; remaining discovered reserves; adjustments to remaining discovered reserves; and, full appreciated undiscovered reserves. This presentation outlined the procedures used by the CGPC in its appreciation studies. It also reviewed data supplier issues, regulatory practices, and booking issues. A series of graphs were also included depicting pools discovered in 1993 and the average pool gas in place. Reservoir loss from 1993 to 1998 was attributed to the fact that enhanced recovery technology cannot keep pace with the degradation in pool quality. It was noted that beyond 1998, significant increases in gas prices should increase recovery factors. Special studies by the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board have included the depreciation of unconnected gas pools and the appreciation of sheet sands. The challenge of tracking pool appreciation was discussed with reference to estimating new pool discoveries in established fields. 2 tabs., 6 figs.

  5. Reserve growth in German oilfields; Reservenwachstum in deutschen Erdoelfeldern

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwietzer, Curt-Albert [RWE Dea AG, Hamburg (Germany)

    2013-07-15

    In the English language use, the term ''Reserve Growth'' describes the fact that in most cases at the start of a field development the estimated ultimate recovery of reserves (EUR) is smaller than it will turn out later by production history. Although this phenomenon of reserve growth gives hints for new reserves in mature hydrocarbon provinces, it has hardly been investigated. In the few existing studies about this issue it is shown that reserve growth is, in the majority of cases, based on factors like the application of improved methods to increase the recovery factor as well as on optimization of the reservoir development by precise modeling and simulation as well as on changing of the reserve classification. Different combinations of these factors affect the changes of reserves during the life of the reservoir. This study investigates the reserve trend of 35 German oilfields over the last 40 to 50 years. Most of them register reserve growth; in some cases even a factor > 10 was achieved. On average, this reserve growth factor can be calculated as 3. A similar study about US American onshore oilfields was carried out for the first time by Arrington; this was, at a later time, revised by the USGS. In the article, Mahendra K. Verma developed the ''Growth Function'' by regression. The ''Growth Function'' describes the changes of proved reserves during the life of an oil reservoir. It indicates that ten years after production start, the reserves increased by three times, whereas the largest proportion of this increase occurred in the first three years. During the next 30 years, the reserves growth factor increased by up to 5.3; at the point of 95 years of production it accumulated to 6.9. In the case of the analysed German oilfields, the reserve growth behaviour was similar. Corresponding to the ''Growth Function'' after 40 years of production, it achieved a factor of 5 and reached a

  6. Reserve Growth in Oil Fields of West Siberian Basin, Russia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Mahendra K.; Ulmishek, Gregory F.

    2006-01-01

    Although reserve (or field) growth has proven to be an important factor contributing to new reserves in mature petroleum basins, it is still a poorly understood phenomenon. Limited studies show that the magnitude of reserve growth is controlled by several major factors, including (1) the reserve booking and reporting requirements in each country, (2) improvements in reservoir characterization and simulation, (3) application of enhanced oil recovery techniques, and (4) the discovery of new and extensions of known pools in discovered fields. Various combinations of these factors can affect the estimates of proven reserves in particular fields and may dictate repeated estimations of reserves during a field's life. This study explores the reserve growth in the 42 largest oil fields in the West Siberian Basin, which contain about 55 percent of the basin's total oil reserves. The West Siberian Basin occupies a vast swampy plain between the Ural Mountains and the Yenisey River, and extends offshore into the Kara Sea; it is the richest petroleum province in Russia. About 600 oil and gas fields with original reserves of 144 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and more than 1,200 trillion cubic feet of gas (TCFG) have been discovered. The principal oil reserves and most of the oil fields are in the southern half of the basin, whereas the northern half contains mainly gas reserves. Sedimentary strata in the basin consist of Upper Triassic through Tertiary clastic rocks. Most oil is produced from Neocomian (Lower Cretaceous) marine to deltaic sandstone reservoirs, although substantial oil reserves are also in the marine Upper Jurassic and continental to paralic Lower to Middle Jurassic sequences. The majority of oil fields are in structural traps, which are gentle, platform-type anticlines with closures ranging from several tens of meters to as much as 150 meters (490 feet). Fields producing from stratigraphic traps are generally smaller except for the giant Talin field which

  7. Estimating Quartz Reserves Using Compositional Kriging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Taboada

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine spatial distribution and volume of four commercial quartz grades, namely, silicon metal, ferrosilicon, aggregate, and kaolin (depending on content in impurities in a quartz seam. The chemical and mineralogical composition of the reserves in the seam were determined from samples collected from outcrops, blasting operations, and exploratory drilling, and compositional kriging was used to calculate the volume and distribution of the reserves. A more accurate knowledge of the deposit ensures better mine planning, leading to higher profitability and an improved relationship with the environment.

  8. Reserve growth of the world's giant oil fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, T.R.; Schmoker, J.W.

    2005-01-01

    Analysis of estimated total recoverable oil volume (field size) of 186 well-known giant oil fields of the world (>0.5 billion bbl of oil, discovered prior to 1981), exclusive of the United States and Canada, demonstrates general increases in field sizes through time. Field sizes were analyzed as a group and within subgroups of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries. From 1981 through 1996, the estimated volume of oil in the 186 fields for which adequate data were available increased from 617 billion to 777 billion bbl of oil (26%). Processes other than new field discoveries added an estimated 160 billion bbl of oil to known reserves in this subset of the world's oil fields. Although methods for estimating field sizes vary among countries, estimated sizes of the giant oil fields of the world increased, probably for many of the same reasons that estimated sizes of oil fields in the United States increased over the same time period. Estimated volumes in OPEC fields increased from a total of 550 billion to 668 billion bbl of oil and volumes in non-OPEC fields increased from 67 billion to 109 billion bbl of oil. In terms of percent change, non-OPEC field sizes increased more than OPEC field sizes (63% versus 22%). The changes in estimated total recoverable oil volumes that occurred within three 5-year increments between 1981 and 1996 were all positive. Between 1981 and 1986, the increase in estimated total recoverable oil volume within the 186 giant oil fields was 11 billion bbl of oil; between 1986 and 1991, the increase was 120 billion bbl of oil; and between 1991 and 1996, the increase was 29 billion bbl of oil. Fields in both OPEC and non-OPEC countries followed trends of substantial reserve growth.

  9. Development growth of uranium reserves during mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giroux, M.

    1989-01-01

    According to the 1988 issue of the Nuclear Energy Agency report 'Uranium Resources, Production and Demand' (the Red Book), total uranium resources remained constant, and compare with those given in the 1986 issue. However, the low cost category of the Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR), that is to say potentially mineable reserves under present market conditions, presents a different picture. These show a decrease of 54 000 tonnes U, or about 3.5%, from the 1 January 1985 level. It seems insignificant until compared with what was removed from the ground - only a quarter of the 71 500 tonnes U of the low cost uranium that was extracted during 1985 and 1986 was renewed by the industry. This is probably related to the low level of exploration activity since 1983. Moreover, new uranium might be not as easy to find as some past discoveries have led us to believe. While in 1988 it appears there is enough low cost uranium to supply existing reactors, the picture quickly changes. From 1991 onwards, for 30 years' supply for existing reactors, uranium will have to come from RAR in the higher cost category. (author)

  10. Reserve growth in oil pools of Alberta : model and forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verma, M.; Cook, T. [United States Geological Survey, Denver, CO (United States). Central Region

    2010-09-15

    This paper presented a reserve growth study that was conducted on oil pools in Alberta, Canada. Historical oil reserve data were evaluated to assess the potential for future reserve growth in both pools and fields, and reserve growth models and functions were developed to better forecast hydrocarbon volumes. The study also considered the sensitivity of reserve growth to such factors as pool size, porosity, and oil gravity. From 1960 to 2005, the reported known recoverable oil in Alberta, excluding the Athabasca oil sands and including only pools with adequate data, increased from 4.2 to 13.9 billion barrels of oil (BBO). New discoveries contributed 3.7 BBO and reserve growth added 6 BBO. Most reserve growth occurred in pools with more than 125,000 barrels of oil. Light-oil pools account for most of the total known oil volume and consequently showed the lowest growth. Pools with greater than 30 percent porosity grew more than pools with lower porosity reservoirs. Oil field growth was found to be almost twice that of pool growth, possibly because the analysis evaluated fields with two or more pools discovered in different years. The growth in oil volumes in Alberta pools is projected to be about 454 million barrels of oil in the period from 2006 to 2010. Over a 25-year period, the cumulative reserve growth in Alberta oil pools was substantially lower than other major petroleum-producing regions, but the growth at the field level compares well. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 9 figs.

  11. Methods for the estimation of uranium ore reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The Manual is designed mainly to provide assistance in uranium ore reserve estimation methods to mining engineers and geologists with limited experience in estimating reserves, especially to those working in developing countries. This Manual deals with the general principles of evaluation of metalliferous deposits but also takes into account the radioactivity of uranium ores. The methods presented have been generally accepted in the international uranium industry

  12. Ore reserve estimation: a summary of principles and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.

    1985-01-01

    The mining industry has experienced substantial improvements with the increasing utilization of computerized and electronic devices throughout the last few years. In the ore reserve estimation field the main methods have undergone recent advances in order to improve their overall efficiency. This paper presents the three main groups of ore reserve estimation methods presently used worldwide: Conventional, Statistical and Geostatistical, and elaborates a detaited description and comparative analysis of each. The Conventional Methods are the oldest, less complex and most employed ones. The Geostatistical Methods are the most recent precise and more complex ones. The Statistical Methods are intermediate to the others in complexity, diffusion and chronological order. (D.J.M.) [pt

  13. Ore reserve estimation of uranium deposit Zirovski vrh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukacs, E.

    1979-01-01

    The uranium ore deposit Zirovski vrh is in the Permian sediments of Northwest Yugoslavia. Lenticular bodies occur at several stratiform levels in grey, medium-grained sandstone. The ore deposit will be mined entirely by underground methods. It is possible to define three stages of deposit evaluation requiring different densities of exploration effort: preliminary evaluation of in situ ore reserves; evaluation of mineable ore reserves; evaluation of production capability and mine planning. The drilling density increases markedly with each succeeding stage. The optimal drilling density for all three stages of evaluation should be determined, but there is some concern that too close spaced drilling would considerably increase the exploration costs without a corresponding increase in effectiveness. On the other hand, too sparsely spaced drilling may result in some difficulties in following the ore in mining. The paper treats the problem of the density of drilling for evaluation of mineable ore reserves compared to that required for mine planning and mine production capability. The purpose of investigation of mineral raw materials is to define economic deposits (ore bodies). To evaluate the deposit economically an accurate reserve estimate is required. If it is accordingly established that such an estimate is within the degree of admissible error, the purpose of the exploration is satisfied. However, the problem as to whether the drilling grid is sufficiently dense remains, because the majority of estimates of ore reserves do not provide a measure of the reliability of the estimate. (author)

  14. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON DYNAMICS OF CREDIT GROWTH AND FOREIGN RESERVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satrugan Sinah

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a model for looking into the nature of change in foreign reserve from movements in domestic credit. This model is relevant to foreign reserve targeting, small and open economies. The model denotes that measures undertaken by central banks to constraint domestic credit growth with the view of controlling capital outflows will also be detrimental to foreign reserves level. The empirical studies with application of Fourier Transformation technique have been used to build a model, which shows that growth in domestic credit is more biased towards positive swings in foreign reserves, rather than being unfavorable. The small and open economies, particularly, the Pacific Island nations, have the right set up for application of this model to safeguard foreign reserves level.

  15. Error estimation in plant growth analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Gregorczyk

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The scheme is presented for calculation of errors of dry matter values which occur during approximation of data with growth curves, determined by the analytical method (logistic function and by the numerical method (Richards function. Further formulae are shown, which describe absolute errors of growth characteristics: Growth rate (GR, Relative growth rate (RGR, Unit leaf rate (ULR and Leaf area ratio (LAR. Calculation examples concerning the growth course of oats and maize plants are given. The critical analysis of the estimation of obtained results has been done. The purposefulness of joint application of statistical methods and error calculus in plant growth analysis has been ascertained.

  16. Estimating the optimal growth-maximising public debt threshold for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    Dr N. Mupunga is at the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, and Prof. P. le Roux is in the Department of Economics, Nelson ..... negative correlation between debt and growth. Moreover the estimated endogenous ..... GDP ratio calibrated by the IMF and World Bank (2012: 25) for low-income countries rated weak in terms of country ...

  17. Application of nuclear-geophysical methods to reserves estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bessonova, T.B.; Karpenko, I.A.

    1980-01-01

    On the basis of the analysis of reports dealing with calculations of mineral reserves considered are shortcomings in using nuclear-geophysical methods and in assessment of the reliability of geophysical sampling. For increasing efficiency of nuclear-geophysical investigations while prospecting ore deposits, it is advisable to introduce them widely instead of traditional geological sampling methods. For this purpose it is necessary to increase sensitivity and accuracy of radioactivity logging methods, to provide determination of certain elements in ores by these methods

  18. Geostatistics applied to estimation of uranium bearing ore reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Urbina Galan, L.I.

    1982-01-01

    A computer assisted method for assessing uranium-bearing ore deposit reserves is analyzed. Determinations of quality-thickness, namely quality by thickness calculations of mineralization, were obtained by means of a mathematical method known as the theory of rational variables for each drill-hole layer. Geostatistical results were derived based on a Fortrand computer program on a DEC 20/40 system. (author)

  19. Reserves' potential of sedimentary basin: modeling and estimation; Potentiel de reserves d'un bassin petrolier: modelisation et estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepez, V

    2002-12-01

    The aim of this thesis is to build a statistical model of oil and gas fields' sizes distribution in a given sedimentary basin, for both the fields that exist in:the subsoil and those which have already been discovered. The estimation of all the parameters of the model via estimation of the density of the observations by model selection of piecewise polynomials by penalized maximum likelihood techniques enables to provide estimates of the total number of fields which are yet to be discovered, by class of size. We assume that the set of underground fields' sizes is an i.i.d. sample of unknown population with Levy-Pareto law with unknown parameter. The set of already discovered fields is a sub-sample without replacement from the previous which is 'size-biased'. The associated inclusion probabilities are to be estimated. We prove that the probability density of the observations is the product of the underlying density and of an unknown weighting function representing the sampling bias. An arbitrary partition of the sizes' interval being set (called a model), the analytical solutions of likelihood maximization enables to estimate both the parameter of the underlying Levy-Pareto law and the weighting function, which is assumed to be piecewise constant and based upon the partition. We shall add a monotonousness constraint over the latter, taking into account the fact that the bigger a field, the higher its probability of being discovered. Horvitz-Thompson-like estimators finally give the conclusion. We then allow our partitions to vary inside several classes of models and prove a model selection theorem which aims at selecting the best partition within a class, in terms of both Kuilback and Hellinger risk of the associated estimator. We conclude by simulations and various applications to real data from sedimentary basins of four continents, in order to illustrate theoretical as well as practical aspects of our model. (author)

  20. rights reserved Modelling Growth Kinetics of Klebsiella sp. FIRD 2

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    ... most toxic anthropogenic compounds deliberately introduced ... Due of its toxicity to marine organisms, the. International ... There are a lot of published papers describing ... The rate of bacterial growth and degradation can be represented as ...

  1. United States geological survey's reserve-growth models and their implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klett, T.R.

    2005-01-01

    The USGS has developed several mathematical models to forecast reserve growth of fields both in the United States (U.S.) and the world. The models are based on historical reserve growth patterns of fields in the U.S. The patterns of past reserve growth are extrapolated to forecast future reserve growth. Changes of individual field sizes through time are extremely variable, therefore, the reserve growth models take on a statistical approach whereby volumetric changes for populations of fields are used in the models. Field age serves as a measure of the field-development effort that is applied to promote reserve growth. At the time of the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000, a reserve growth model for discovered fields of the world was not available. Reserve growth forecasts, therefore, were made based on a model of historical reserve growth of fields of the U.S. To test the feasibility of such an application, reserve growth forecasts were made of 186 giant oil fields of the world (excluding the U.S. and Canada). In addition, forecasts were made for these giant oil fields subdivided into those located in and outside of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The model provided a reserve-growth forecast that closely matched the actual reserve growth that occurred from 1981 through 1996 for the 186 fields as a whole, as well as for both OPEC and non-OPEC subdivisions, despite the differences in reserves definition among the fields of the U.S. and the rest of the world. ?? 2005 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  2. Improvements to the quality of the estimates of US uranium reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikodem, Z.D.

    1998-01-01

    Extensive work has been done in the United States in the estimation of uranium reserves. The government's role in uranium raw materials shifted from support of military programmes to assessing the supply available for commercial power generation. A comprehensive system evolved in which government staff estimated reserves for each property over a range of cost levels using standardized estimation methodology and criteria. The programme was assigned to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the Department of Energy in 1983 which has the responsibility for reporting on energy resources. As uranium supply had increased and demand had decreased, there was less concern about the adequacy of resources. In this situation, and with reduced staffing levels, the EIA adopted a two part interim approach to preparing reserve estimates. One used questionnaires to obtain uranium company estimates of their economic and subeconomic reserves, with company determined economic criteria. A second approach modified the earlier detailed government property estimates to account for production. The EIA developed a new system with the assistance of consultants and the uranium industry. The goal of the new system is to produce one set of estimates at various cost categories for each property based on a rigorous adherence to EIA criteria. Initial information is gathered from the industry through a revised annual questionnaire. Company estimates that conform to EIA standards are incorporated into the EIA reserve data base. Additional information is gathered for those estimates requiring clarification, primarily through detailed technical conferences with company staff. The EIA has the capability to prepare independent reserve estimates from basic drill hole data when required. Uranium reserves estimated for 1990 by the EIA include the initial results from the new methodology. The cooperation and support of the uranium industry have been excellent. Detailed evaluation of properties is

  3. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  4. A Bootstrap Approach to Computing Uncertainty in Inferred Oil and Gas Reserve Estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attanasi, Emil D.; Coburn, Timothy C.

    2004-01-01

    This study develops confidence intervals for estimates of inferred oil and gas reserves based on bootstrap procedures. Inferred reserves are expected additions to proved reserves in previously discovered conventional oil and gas fields. Estimates of inferred reserves accounted for 65% of the total oil and 34% of the total gas assessed in the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Assessment of oil and gas in US onshore and State offshore areas. When the same computational methods used in the 1995 Assessment are applied to more recent data, the 80-year (from 1997 through 2076) inferred reserve estimates for pre-1997 discoveries located in the lower 48 onshore and state offshore areas amounted to a total of 39.7 billion barrels of oil (BBO) and 293 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of gas. The 90% confidence interval about the oil estimate derived from the bootstrap approach is 22.4 BBO to 69.5 BBO. The comparable 90% confidence interval for the inferred gas reserve estimate is 217 TCF to 413 TCF. The 90% confidence interval describes the uncertainty that should be attached to the estimates. It also provides a basis for developing scenarios to explore the implications for energy policy analysis

  5. Reliability/Cost Evaluation on Power System connected with Wind Power for the Reserve Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Go-Eun; Cha, Seung-Tae; Shin, Je-Seok

    2012-01-01

    Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

  6. Growth and reproductive performance of sambar deer in Sabal Forest Reserve of Sarawak, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlan, Ismail; Dawend, Jiwan

    2013-10-01

    We examined the growth, reproduction, rutting behavior, and health status of sambar deer (Cervus unicolor brookei) in secondary Acacia mangium plantation. The data were collected over 11 years from a breeding herd of 21 stags and 33 hinds in Sabal Forest Reserve, Sarawak, Malaysia. Brody's growth model of the pooled data is Y t  = 148.56 (1 - 0.98e(-0.023t)), which estimates that maximum weights of adults are 184 and 115 kg for males and females respectively. Sambar deer are nonseasonal breeders with the breeding peak in February. Although the earliest age at which a female reached sexual maturity was 11 months, the mean age was 23 ± 7 months. Mean age of first fawning was 32 ± 8 months. Mean gestation period was 259 ± 12 days (n = 82). Stags shed antlers mostly between March and July. Velvet hardens at 103 ± 27 days (n = 23), and velvet harvesting is best at 7-9 weeks when antler length is 25-30 cm. Sambar deer are suitable as a farm species in forest plantations and have a vast potential to uplift rural living standards.

  7. Approaches to identifying reservoir heterogeneity and reserve growth opportunities from subsurface data: The Oficina Formation, Budare field, Venezuela

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, D.S.; Raeuchle, S.K.; Holtz, M.H. [Bureau of Economic Geology, Austin, TX (United States)] [and others

    1997-08-01

    We applied an integrated geologic, geophysical, and engineering approach devised to identify heterogeneities in the subsurface that might lead to reserve growth opportunities in our analysis of the Oficina Formation at Budare field, Venezuela. The approach involves 4 key steps: (1) Determine geologic reservoir architecture; (2) Investigate trends in reservoir fluid flow; (3) Integrate fluid flow trends with reservoir architecture; and (4) Estimate original oil-in-place, residual oil saturation, and remaining mobile oil, to identify opportunities for reserve growth. There are three main oil-producing reservoirs in the Oficina Formation that were deposited in a bed-load fluvial system, an incised valley-fill, and a barrier-strandplain system. Reservoir continuity is complex because, in addition to lateral facies variability, the major Oficina depositional systems were internally subdivided by high-frequency stratigraphic surfaces. These surfaces define times of intermittent lacustrine and marine flooding events that punctuated the fluvial and marginal marine sedimentation, respectively. Syn and post depositional faulting further disrupted reservoir continuity. Trends in fluid flow established from initial fluid levels, response to recompletion workovers, and pressure depletion data demonstrated barriers to lateral and vertical fluid flow caused by a combination of reservoir facies pinchout, flooding shale markers, and the faults. Considerable reserve growth potential exists at Budare field because the reservoir units are highly compartment by the depositional heterogeneity and structural complexity. Numerous reserve growth opportunities were identified in attics updip of existing production, in untapped or incompletely drained compartments, and in field extensions.

  8. Estimating the optimal growth-maximising public debt threshold for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper attempts to estimate an optimal growth-maximising public debt threshold for Zimbabwe. The public debt threshold is estimated by assessing the relationship between public debt and economic growth. The analysis is undertaken to determine the tipping point beyond which increases in public debt adversely affect ...

  9. A test and re-estimation of Taylor's empirical capacity-reserve relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, K.R.

    2009-01-01

    In 1977, Taylor proposed a constant elasticity model relating capacity choice in mines to reserves. A test of this model using a very large (n = 1,195) dataset confirms its validity but obtains significantly different estimated values for the model coefficients. Capacity is somewhat inelastic with respect to reserves, with an elasticity of 0.65 estimated for open-pit plus block-cave underground mines and 0.56 for all other underground mines. These new estimates should be useful for capacity determinations as scoping studies and as a starting point for feasibility studies. The results are robust over a wide range of deposit types, deposit sizes, and time, consistent with physical constraints on mine capacity that are largely independent of technology. ?? 2009 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  10. Impact of water stress on growth reserves and re-growth of Themeda ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Four water stress treatments (T1 = 0–25%, T2 = 25–50%, T3 = 50–75% and T4 = 75–100% depletion of plant available water) were applied to the plants in pots in a glasshouse. The TNCC declined drastically after severe defoliation over all the water treatments (P < 0.05), in all the plant parts (P < 0.05) and for all the growth ...

  11. Community College Estimated Growth: Fall 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillippe, Kent; Mullin, Christopher M.

    2011-01-01

    A survey from the American Association of Community Colleges (AACC) found that enrollment growth in fall 2010 slowed its pace at community colleges, increasing 3.2% from the previous year. This contrasts with more dramatic increases in recent years: more than 11% between fall 2008 and fall 2009, and nearly 17% between fall 2007 and fall 2009,…

  12. Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, R. L.

    2006-05-01

    The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

  13. A new ore reserve estimation method, Yang Chizhong filtering and inferential measurement method, and its application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Jingqin.

    1989-01-01

    Yang Chizhong filtering and inferential measurement method is a new method used for variable statistics of ore deposits. In order to apply this theory to estimate the uranium ore reserves under the circumstances of regular or irregular prospecting grids, small ore bodies, less sampling points, and complex occurrence, the author has used this method to estimate the ore reserves in five ore bodies of two deposits and achieved satisfactory results. It is demonstrated that compared with the traditional block measurement method, this method is simple and clear in formula, convenient in application, rapid in calculation, accurate in results, less expensive, and high economic benefits. The procedure and experience in the application of this method and the preliminary evaluation of its results are mainly described

  14. The Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Ore Reserve Estimation at Choghart Iron Ore Deposit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyyed Ali Nezamolhosseini

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Geo-statistical methods for reserve estimation are difficult to use when stationary conditions are not satisfied. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs provide an alternative to geo-statistical techniques while considerably reducing the processing time required for development and application. In this paper the ANNs was applied to the Choghart iron ore deposit in Yazd province of Iran. Initially, an optimum Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP was constructed to estimate the Fe grade within orebody using the whole ore data of the deposit. Sensitivity analysis was applied for a number of hidden layers and neurons, different types of activation functions and learning rules. Optimal architectures for iron grade estimation were 3-20-10-1. In order to improve the network performance, the deposit was divided into four homogenous zones. Subsequently, all sensitivity analyses were carried out on each zone.  Finally, a different optimum network was trained and Fe was estimated separately for each zone. Comparison of correlation coefficient (R and least mean squared error (MSE showed that the ANNs performed on four homogenous zones were far better than the nets applied to the overall ore body. Therefore, these optimized neural networks were used to estimate the distribution of iron grades and the iron resource in Choghart deposit. As a result of applying ANNs, the tonnage of ore for Choghart deposit is approximately estimated at 135.8 million tones with average grade of Fe at 56.14 percent. Results of reserve estimation using ANNs showed a good agreement with the geo-statistical methods applied to this ore body in another work.

  15. On the estimation of the volatility-growth link

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Launov, Andrey; Posch, Olaf; Wälde, Klaus

    It is common practice to estimate the volatility-growth link by specifying a standard growth equation such that the variance of the error term appears as an explanatory variable in this growth equation. The variance in turn is modelled by a second equation. Hardly any of existing applications...... of this framework includes exogenous controls in this second variance equation. Our theoretical …ndings suggest that the absence of relevant explanatory variables in the variance equation leads to a biased and inconsistent estimate of the volatility-growth link. Our simulations show that this effect is large. Once...... the appropriate controls are included in the variance equation consistency is restored. In short, we suggest that the variance equation must include relevant control variables to estimate the volatility-growth link....

  16. Complete adrenocorticotropin deficiency after radiation therapy for brain tumor with a normal growth hormone reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sakai, Haruna; Yoshioka, Katsunobu; Yamagami, Keiko [Osaka City General Hospital (Japan)] (and others)

    2002-06-01

    A 34-year-old man with neurofibromatosis type 1, who had received radiation therapy after the excision of a brain tumor 5 years earlier, was admitted to our hospital with vomiting and weight loss. Cortisol and adrenocorticotropin (ACTH) were undetectable before and after administration of 100 {mu}g corticotropin releasing hormone. The level of growth hormone without stimulation was 24.7 ng/ml. We diagnosed him to have complete ACTH deficiency attributable to radiation therapy. This is the first known case of a patient with complete ACTH deficiency after radiation therapy and a growth hormone reserve that remained normal. (author)

  17. Complete adrenocorticotropin deficiency after radiation therapy for brain tumor with a normal growth hormone reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, Haruna; Yoshioka, Katsunobu; Yamagami, Keiko

    2002-01-01

    A 34-year-old man with neurofibromatosis type 1, who had received radiation therapy after the excision of a brain tumor 5 years earlier, was admitted to our hospital with vomiting and weight loss. Cortisol and adrenocorticotropin (ACTH) were undetectable before and after administration of 100 μg corticotropin releasing hormone. The level of growth hormone without stimulation was 24.7 ng/ml. We diagnosed him to have complete ACTH deficiency attributable to radiation therapy. This is the first known case of a patient with complete ACTH deficiency after radiation therapy and a growth hormone reserve that remained normal. (author)

  18. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  19. Incremental natural gas resources through infield reserve growth/secondary natural gas recovery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, R.J.; Levey, R.A.; Hardage, B.A.

    1993-12-31

    The primary objective of the Infield Reserve Growth/Secondary Natural Gas Recovery (SGR) project is to develop, test, and verify technologies and methodologies with near- to midterm potential for maximizing the recovery of natural gasfrom conventional reservoirs in known fields. Additional technical and technology transfer objectives of the SGR project include: To establish how depositional and diagenetic heterogeneities in reservoirs of conventional permeability cause reservoir compartmentalization and, hence, incomplete recovery of natural gas. To document examples of reserve growth occurrence and potential from fluvial and deltaic sandstones of the Texas gulf coast basin as a natural laboratory for developing concepts and testing applications to find secondary gas. To demonstrate how the integration of geology, reservoir engineering, geophysics, and well log analysis/petrophysics leads to strategic recompletion and well placement opportunities for reserve growth in mature fields. To transfer project results to a wide array of natural gas producers, not just as field case studies, but as conceptual models of how heterogeneities determine natural gas flow units and how to recognize the geologic and engineering clues that operators can use in a cost-effective manner to identify incremental, or secondary, gas.

  20. Weed Growth Stage Estimator Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teimouri, Nima; Dyrmann, Mads; Nielsen, Per Rydahl

    2018-01-01

    This study outlines a new method of automatically estimating weed species and growth stages (from cotyledon until eight leaves are visible) of in situ images covering 18 weed species or families. Images of weeds growing within a variety of crops were gathered across variable environmental conditi...... in estimating the number of leaves and 96% accuracy when accepting a deviation of two leaves. These results show that this new method of using deep convolutional neural networks has a relatively high ability to estimate early growth stages across a wide variety of weed species....

  1. Comparative study of the geostatistical ore reserve estimation method over the conventional methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y.C.; Knudsen, H.P.

    1975-01-01

    Part I contains a comprehensive treatment of the comparative study of the geostatistical ore reserve estimation method over the conventional methods. The conventional methods chosen for comparison were: (a) the polygon method, (b) the inverse of the distance squared method, and (c) a method similar to (b) but allowing different weights in different directions. Briefly, the overall result from this comparative study is in favor of the use of geostatistics in most cases because the method has lived up to its theoretical claims. A good exposition on the theory of geostatistics, the adopted study procedures, conclusions and recommended future research are given in Part I. Part II of this report contains the results of the second and the third study objectives, which are to assess the potential benefits that can be derived by the introduction of the geostatistical method to the current state-of-the-art in uranium reserve estimation method and to be instrumental in generating the acceptance of the new method by practitioners through illustrative examples, assuming its superiority and practicality. These are given in the form of illustrative examples on the use of geostatistics and the accompanying computer program user's guide

  2. 99mTc-GSA dynamic SPECT for regional hepatic functional reserve estimation. Assessment of quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, Eui-Hyo

    1999-01-01

    The aim of this study is the assessment of the physiological implication of estimated parameters and the clinical value of this analyzing method for hepatic functional reserve estimation. After venous injection of 185 MBq of GSA, fifteen sequential sets of SPECT data were acquired for 15 minutes. First 5 sets SPECT images were analyzed by Patlak plot and hepatic GSA clearance was obtained in each matrix. The sum of hepatic GSA clearance in each matrix (total hepatic GSA clearance) was calculated as an index of whole liver functional reserve. Total hepatic GSA clearance was compared with receptor index or effective blood flow (EHBF) of whole liver which were analyzed by Direct Integral Linear Least Square Regression (DILS) method for the assessment of the physiological implications of hepatic GSA clearance. The clinical value of total hepatic GSA clearance was assessed in comparisons with the conventional hepatic function test. A very good correlations were observed between total hepatic GSA clearance and receptor index, whereas the correlations between total hepatic GSA clearance and EHBF were not significant. Significant correlations were also observed between total hepatic GSA clearance and the conventional hepatic function tests, such as choline esterase, albumin, hepaplastin test, ICG R15. (K.H.)

  3. RELATIVECONTRIBUTIONS OF THE NIGERIAN CAPITALMARKETTO THE GROWTH OF EXTERNAL RESERVES (2005-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akaninyene Udo Akpan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Virtually all aspects of human endeavour entail the use of money either selfgenerated or borrowed. In capital market, the stock in trade is money which couldbe raised through various instruments under well governed rules and regulationscarefully administered and followed by different institutions or market operators.External reserves constitute an integral part of the wealth of the nation such thatthe lack of it brings worry to most nations and can limit the ability of the countryto make foreign currency denominated payments and limits its spending abroad.Hence,countries are induced to hold reserves to allow monetary authorities tointervene in markets to control the exchange rate and inflation. Adequate reservesalso allow the country to borrow from abroad and to hedge against instability anduncertainty of external capital flows.Therefore, the objective of this paper is toaccess the relative contribution of the Nigerian capital market if any to the growthof her external reserve.The methodology used is purely descriptive and narrative and the data used is secondary. The evidence provided in the study based on thestatistical analysis, revealed that the Nigerian capital market can induce thegrowthof external reserve but it has not contributed to the growth of externalreserve in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study recommendedamong otherstheneedfor availability of more investment instruments such as derivatives, futures,swaps, options in the market and theexpansion of the Nigerian capital Market bythe government creating an enabling investable environment that will increaseboth the volume of transactions and number of securities traded in the market.This will improve their ability to mobilize resources and efficiently allocate themto the most productive sectors of the economy hence, contributing its portion tothe growth of her external reserve.

  4. Reserves' potential of sedimentary basin: modeling and estimation; Potentiel de reserves d'un bassin petrolier: modelisation et estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepez, V.

    2002-12-01

    The aim of this thesis is to build a statistical model of oil and gas fields' sizes distribution in a given sedimentary basin, for both the fields that exist in:the subsoil and those which have already been discovered. The estimation of all the parameters of the model via estimation of the density of the observations by model selection of piecewise polynomials by penalized maximum likelihood techniques enables to provide estimates of the total number of fields which are yet to be discovered, by class of size. We assume that the set of underground fields' sizes is an i.i.d. sample of unknown population with Levy-Pareto law with unknown parameter. The set of already discovered fields is a sub-sample without replacement from the previous which is 'size-biased'. The associated inclusion probabilities are to be estimated. We prove that the probability density of the observations is the product of the underlying density and of an unknown weighting function representing the sampling bias. An arbitrary partition of the sizes' interval being set (called a model), the analytical solutions of likelihood maximization enables to estimate both the parameter of the underlying Levy-Pareto law and the weighting function, which is assumed to be piecewise constant and based upon the partition. We shall add a monotonousness constraint over the latter, taking into account the fact that the bigger a field, the higher its probability of being discovered. Horvitz-Thompson-like estimators finally give the conclusion. We then allow our partitions to vary inside several classes of models and prove a model selection theorem which aims at selecting the best partition within a class, in terms of both Kuilback and Hellinger risk of the associated estimator. We conclude by simulations and various applications to real data from sedimentary basins of four continents, in order to illustrate theoretical as well as practical aspects of our model. (author)

  5. Weed Growth Stage Estimator Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teimouri, Nima; Dyrmann, Mads; Nielsen, Per Rydahl

    2018-01-01

    conditions with regards to soil types, resolution and light settings. Then, 9649 of these images were used for training the computer, which automatically divided the weeds into nine growth classes. The performance of this proposed convolutional neural network approach was evaluated on a further set of 2516...... in estimating the number of leaves and 96% accuracy when accepting a deviation of two leaves. These results show that this new method of using deep convolutional neural networks has a relatively high ability to estimate early growth stages across a wide variety of weed species....

  6. Estimating functional liver reserve following hepatic irradiation: Adaptive normal tissue response models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenmark, Matthew H.; Cao, Yue; Wang, Hesheng; Jackson, Andrew; Ben-Josef, Edgar; Ten Haken, Randall K.; Lawrence, Theodore S.; Feng, Mary

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To estimate the limit of functional liver reserve for safe application of hepatic irradiation using changes in indocyanine green, an established assay of liver function. Materials and methods: From 2005 to 2011, 60 patients undergoing hepatic irradiation were enrolled in a prospective study assessing the plasma retention fraction of indocyanine green at 15-min (ICG-R15) prior to, during (at 60% of planned dose), and after radiotherapy (RT). The limit of functional liver reserve was estimated from the damage fraction of functional liver (DFL) post-RT [1 − (ICG-R15 pre-RT /ICG-R15 post-RT )] where no toxicity was observed using a beta distribution function. Results: Of 48 evaluable patients, 3 (6%) developed RILD, all within 2.5 months of completing RT. The mean ICG-R15 for non-RILD patients pre-RT, during-RT and 1-month post-RT was 20.3%(SE 2.6), 22.0%(3.0), and 27.5%(2.8), and for RILD patients was 6.3%(4.3), 10.8%(2.7), and 47.6%(8.8). RILD was observed at post-RT damage fractions of ⩾78%. Both DFL assessed by during-RT ICG and MLD predicted for DFL post-RT (p < 0.0001). Limiting the post-RT DFL to 50%, predicted a 99% probability of a true complication rate <15%. Conclusion: The DFL as assessed by changes in ICG during treatment serves as an early indicator of a patient’s tolerance to hepatic irradiation

  7. Estimating the optimal growth-maximising public debt threshold for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    Dr N. Mupunga is at the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, and Prof. P. le Roux is .... The debt overhang has also led to a huge credit risk premium for both ..... includes gross government debt-to-GDP and economic growth ratios, including almost all ...

  8. Estimates of genetic parameters and genetic gains for growth traits ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimates of genetic parameters and genetic gains for growth traits of two Eucalyptus ... In South Africa, Eucalyptus urophylla is an important species due to its ... as hybrid parents to cross with E. grandis was 59.8% over the population mean.

  9. Association of coronary ischemia estimated by fractional flow reserve and psychological characteristics of patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miodrag Jovan Sreckovic

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : Psychological characteristics of patients, depression, stress and anxiety are recognized as important confounding risk factors for ischemic heart disease. However, the impact of psychological characteristics on coronary ischemia and vice versa remain poorly understood. Aim: To demonstrate the interplay of psychological characteristics, depression, stress and anxiety with coronary ischemia estimated with fractional flow reserve (FFR. Material and methods : From 2014 to 2016, 147 patients who were planned for FFR measurement were included in this study. Psychological characteristics of patients were evaluated using the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale 21 items (DASS 21 self-report questionnaire. Results : Comparing the FFR ischemic vs. FFR non-ischemic groups, a significant difference was observed regarding results achieved for the depression, anxiety and stress scales. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to model the correlation between FFR and the DAS scale. It was clear, when controlling for previous myocardial infarction, that FFR was significant in all analyses. However, when the Canadian Cardiovascular Society grading of angina pectoris (CCS class was entered in the model, FFR was not a significant predictor of anxiety, but was significant in other analysis. Conclusions : Higher degrees of the psychological characteristics depression, stress and anxiety were observed in the group of patients with coronary ischemia, corresponding to lower fractional flow values.

  10. Can we estimate bacterial growth rates from ribosomal RNA content?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemp, P.F.

    1995-12-31

    Several studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the quantity of RNA in bacterial cells and their growth rate under laboratory conditions. It may be possible to use this relationship to provide information on the activity of natural bacterial communities, and in particular on growth rate. However, if this approach is to provide reliably interpretable information, the relationship between RNA content and growth rate must be well-understood. In particular, a requisite of such applications is that the relationship must be universal among bacteria, or alternately that the relationship can be determined and measured for specific bacterial taxa. The RNA-growth rate relationship has not been used to evaluate bacterial growth in field studies, although RNA content has been measured in single cells and in bulk extracts of field samples taken from coastal environments. These measurements have been treated as probable indicators of bacterial activity, but have not yet been interpreted as estimators of growth rate. The primary obstacle to such interpretations is a lack of information on biological and environmental factors that affect the RNA-growth rate relationship. In this paper, the available data on the RNA-growth rate relationship in bacteria will be reviewed, including hypotheses regarding the regulation of RNA synthesis and degradation as a function of growth rate and environmental factors; i.e. the basic mechanisms for maintaining RNA content in proportion to growth rate. An assessment of the published laboratory and field data, the current status of this research area, and some of the remaining questions will be presented.

  11. International strategies for growth : monetizing gas reserves to add value to the bottom line

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihaichuk, G.

    1998-01-01

    The direction taken by oil and gas companies, including TransCanada International, in their strategy for growth in global energy markets was discussed. The role that gas plays in meeting the objectives was examined and the different ways in which gas reserves and investments in the gas sector are being turned into high-performing vehicles for adding value to the bottom line were described. Deregulation of, and competition within, the gas and electric power industries are the driving factors for changes within the energy industries. Natural gas will be a winner because it is the first choice for new power generation. Many companies have entered the international playing field to take advantage of the opportunities in international markets. The problems and solutions to monetizing natural gas reserves, some of the international political issues such as regulatory uncertainty, cross-border disputes, lack of regional integration, and sanctions, and how these adverse effects may be mitigated through mergers, acquisitions, or joint ventures, are explored. 14 figs

  12. Analysis of digital subtraction angiography for estimating flow reserve in critical coronary artery stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotoku, Shinya; Matsuzaki, Masunori; Otani, Nozomi

    1988-01-01

    To assess the accuracy of digital subtraction angiography in evaluating coronary flow reserve in cases with critical coronary artery stenosis, time-density curves were obtained from digital subtraction coronary angiograms in the myocardial region of interest. Time to peak contrast (TPC) and time constant of the washout exponential curve (T) were measured in 14 patients with stable effort angina pectoris and critical one vessel lesion before and after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA). All patients had normal left ventricular ejection fraction (59±7%) and 201 Tl myocardial images at rest. The values of TPC and T were significantly shortened from 5.4±1.3 to 4.5±1.0 sec (p<0.02) and from 10.9±3.8 to 5.3±1.3 sec (p<0.001) after PTCA, respectively. However, in 9 patients TPC values were approximately the same before and after PTCA. In five experimental dogs with critical circumflex coronary artery stenosis, coronary flow (CF; Doppler flowmeter) and systolic thickening of the posterior wall (by sonomicrometry) at rest did not differ from those of the controls. However, contrast media-induced reactive hyperemia was markedly attenuated, accompanied by a significant increase in T (7.7±4.5 vs 15.8±10.9 sec, p<0.01) and totally unchanged TPC (both 6.8 sec). With simultaneous tracings of CF and time-density curves, TPC and washout phases corresponded with contrast-induced transient CF reduction and hyperemic phases, respectively. We concluded that T may be more sensitive for estimating CF maintained nearly normal, e.g., in patients with stable effort angina pectoris having normal left ventricular wall motion at rest. (author)

  13. Analysis of digital subtraction coronary angiography for estimation of flow reserve in critical coronary stenosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohtoku, Shinya

    1988-01-01

    To examine the accuracy of digital subtraction angiographic assessment of coronary flow reserve in critical coronary stenosis, time-density curve was obtained from digital subtraction coronary angiograms for myocardial region of interest. Time to peak contrast(TPC) and time constant of the washout exponential curve(T) were measured in 14 patients with stable effort angina pectoris and critical one vessel lesion before and after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty(PTCA). All patients had normal left ventricular ejection fraction (59 ± 7 %) and Tl 201 myocardial image at rest. The values of TPC and T were significantly shortened from 5.4 ± 1.3 to 4.5 ± 1.0 sec (p < 0.02) and from 10.9 ± 3.8 to 5.3 ± 1.3 sec(p < 0.001) after PTCA, respectively. However, in 9 of all patients TPC after PTCA showed approximately the same valued as those before PTCA. In 5 experimental dogs with critical circumflex stenosis, coronary flow(CF;Doppler flow meter) and systolic thickning of the posterior wall(by sonomicrometry) at rest were not different from control, however, contrast media-induced reactive hyperemia was markedly attenuated, accompanied with a significant of T (7.7 ± 4.5 vs 15.8 ± 10.9 sec, p < 0.01) and completely unchanged TPC (both 6.8 sec). With simultaneous tracing of CF and time-density curve, TPC and washout phase corresponded with contrast-induced transient CF reduction and hyperemic phase, respectively. We conclude that T might be more sensitive for estimation of CF is maintained almost normal, such as patients with stable effort angina pectoris having normal left ventricular wall motion at rest. (author)

  14. Weed Growth Stage Estimator Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teimouri, Nima; Dyrmann, Mads; Nielsen, Per Rydahl; Mathiassen, Solvejg Kopp; Somerville, Gayle J; Jørgensen, Rasmus Nyholm

    2018-05-16

    This study outlines a new method of automatically estimating weed species and growth stages (from cotyledon until eight leaves are visible) of in situ images covering 18 weed species or families. Images of weeds growing within a variety of crops were gathered across variable environmental conditions with regards to soil types, resolution and light settings. Then, 9649 of these images were used for training the computer, which automatically divided the weeds into nine growth classes. The performance of this proposed convolutional neural network approach was evaluated on a further set of 2516 images, which also varied in term of crop, soil type, image resolution and light conditions. The overall performance of this approach achieved a maximum accuracy of 78% for identifying Polygonum spp. and a minimum accuracy of 46% for blackgrass. In addition, it achieved an average 70% accuracy rate in estimating the number of leaves and 96% accuracy when accepting a deviation of two leaves. These results show that this new method of using deep convolutional neural networks has a relatively high ability to estimate early growth stages across a wide variety of weed species.

  15. Recent revisions of phosphate rock reserves and resources: reassuring or misleading? An in-depth literature review of global estimates of phosphate rock reserves and resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edixhoven, J. D.; Gupta, J.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2013-09-01

    Phosphate rock (PR) is a finite mineral indispensible for fertilizer production and a major pollutant. High grade PR is obtained from deposits which took millions of years to form and are gradually being depleted. Over the past three years, global PR reserves as reported by US Geological Survey (USGS) have seen a massive increase, from 16 000 Mt PR in 2010 to 65 000 Mt PR in 2011. The bulk of this four-fold increase is based on a 2010 report by International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), which increased Moroccan reserves from 5700 Mt PR as reported by USGS, to 51 000 Mt PR, reported as upgraded ("beneficiated") concentrate. IFDC used a starkly simplified classification compared to the classification used by USGS and proposed that agreement should be reached on PR resource terminology which should be as simple as possible. The report has profoundly influenced the PR scarcity debate, shifting the emphasis from depletion to the pollution angle of the phosphate problem. Various analysts adopted the findings of IFDC and USGS, and argued that that following depletion of reserves, uneconomic deposits (resources and occurrences) will remain available which will extend the lifetime of available deposits to thousands of years. Given the near total dependence of food production on PR, data on PR deposits must be transparent, comparable, reliable and credible. Based on an in-depth literature review, we analyze (i) how IFDC's simplified terminology compares to international best practice in resource classification and whether it is likely to yield data that meets the abovementioned requirements; (ii) whether the difference between ore reserves and reserves as concentrate is sufficiently noted in the literature, and (iii) whether the IFDC report and its estimate of PR reserves and resources is reliable. We conclude that, while there is a global development toward common criteria in resource reporting, IFDC's definitions contravene this development and - due to their

  16. All rights reserved and www.bioline.org.br/ja Estimation of exit ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    and www.bioline.org.br/ja. Estimation of exit temperatures in the isentropic compression of real gases. 1 ..... other thermodynamic properties can be calculated within the framework of ... of negative compressibility) has no physical significance.

  17. Growth and metabolic characteristics of oleaginous microalgal isolates from Nilgiri biosphere Reserve of India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thangavel, Kalaiselvi; Radha Krishnan, Preethi; Nagaiah, Srimeena; Kuppusamy, Senthil; Chinnasamy, Senthil; Rajadorai, Jude Sudhagar; Nellaiappan Olaganathan, Gopal; Dananjeyan, Balachandar

    2018-01-03

    Renewable energy for sustainable development is a subject of a worldwide debate since continuous utilization of non-renewable energy sources has a drastic impact on the environment and economy; a search for alternative energy resources is indispensable. Microalgae are promising and potential alternate energy resources for biodiesel production. Thus, our efforts were focused on surveying the natural diversity of microalgae for the production of biodiesel. The present study aimed at identification, isolation, and characterization of oleaginous microalgae from shola forests of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve (NBR), the biodiversity hot spot of India, where the microalgal diversity has not yet been systematically investigated. Overall the higher biomass yield, higher lipid accumulation and thermotolerance observed in the isolated microalgal strains have been found to be the desirable traits for the efficient biodiesel production. Species composition and diversity analysis yielded ten potential microalgal isolates belonging to Chlorophyceae and Cyanophyceae classes. The chlorophytes exhibited higher growth rate, maximum biomass yield, and higher lipid accumulation than Cyanophyceae. Among the chlorophytes, the best performing strains were identified and represented by Acutodesmus dissociatus (TGA1), Chlorella sp. (TGA2), Chlamydomonadales sp. (TGA3) and Hindakia tetrachotoma (PGA1). The Chlamydomonadales sp. recorded with the highest growth rate, lipid accumulation and biomass yield of 0.28 ± 0.03 day -1 (μ exp ), 29.7 ± 0.69% and 134.17 ± 16.87 mg L -1  day -1 , respectively. It was also found to grow well at various temperatures, viz., 25 °C, 35 °C, and 45 °C, indicating its suitability for open pond cultivation. The fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analysis of stationary phase cultures of selected four algal strains by tandem mass spectrograph showed C16:0, C18:1 and C18:3 as dominant fatty acids suitable for biodiesel production. All the three

  18. NDE errors and their propagation in sizing and growth estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horn, D.; Obrutsky, L.; Lakhan, R.

    2009-01-01

    The accuracy attributed to eddy current flaw sizing determines the amount of conservativism required in setting tube-plugging limits. Several sources of error contribute to the uncertainty of the measurements, and the way in which these errors propagate and interact affects the overall accuracy of the flaw size and flaw growth estimates. An example of this calculation is the determination of an upper limit on flaw growth over one operating period, based on the difference between two measurements. Signal-to-signal comparison involves a variety of human, instrumental, and environmental error sources; of these, some propagate additively and some multiplicatively. In a difference calculation, specific errors in the first measurement may be correlated with the corresponding errors in the second; others may be independent. Each of the error sources needs to be identified and quantified individually, as does its distribution in the field data. A mathematical framework for the propagation of the errors can then be used to assess the sensitivity of the overall uncertainty to each individual error component. This paper quantifies error sources affecting eddy current sizing estimates and presents analytical expressions developed for their effect on depth estimates. A simple case study is used to model the analysis process. For each error source, the distribution of the field data was assessed and propagated through the analytical expressions. While the sizing error obtained was consistent with earlier estimates and with deviations from ultrasonic depth measurements, the error on growth was calculated as significantly smaller than that obtained assuming uncorrelated errors. An interesting result of the sensitivity analysis in the present case study is the quantification of the error reduction available from post-measurement compensation of magnetite effects. With the absolute and difference error equations, variance-covariance matrices, and partial derivatives developed in

  19. Using basal area to estimate aboveground carbon stocks in forests: La Primavera Biosphere's Reserve, Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balderas Torres, Arturo; Lovett, Jonathan Cranidge

    2012-01-01

    Increasing use of woody plants for greenhouse gas mitigation has led to demand for rapid, cost-effective estimation of forest carbon stocks. Bole diameter is readily measured and basal area can be correlated to biomass and carbon through application of allometric equations. We explore different

  20. Nuclear-fuel-cycle education: Module 2. Exploration, reserve estimation, mining, milling, conversion, and properties of uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brookins, D.G.

    1981-12-01

    In this module geological and geochemical data pertinent to locating, mining, and milling of uranium are examined. Chapters are devoted to: uranium source characteristics; uranium ore exploration methods; uranium reserve estimation for sandstone deposits; mining; milling; conversion processes for uranium; and properties of uranium, thorium, plutonium and their oxides and carbides

  1. Visual Estimation of Bacterial Growth Level in Microfluidic Culture Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyukwang Kim

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Microfluidic devices are an emerging platform for a variety of experiments involving bacterial cell culture, and has advantages including cost and convenience. One inevitable step during bacterial cell culture is the measurement of cell concentration in the channel. The optical density measurement technique is generally used for bacterial growth estimation, but it is not applicable to microfluidic devices due to the small sample volumes in microfluidics. Alternately, cell counting or colony-forming unit methods may be applied, but these do not work in situ; nor do these methods show measurement results immediately. To this end, we present a new vision-based method to estimate the growth level of the bacteria in microfluidic channels. We use Fast Fourier transform (FFT to detect the frequency level change of the microscopic image, focusing on the fact that the microscopic image becomes rough as the number of cells in the field of view increases, adding high frequencies to the spectrum of the image. Two types of microfluidic devices are used to culture bacteria in liquid and agar gel medium, and time-lapsed images are captured. The images obtained are analyzed using FFT, resulting in an increase in high-frequency noise proportional to the time passed. Furthermore, we apply the developed method in the microfluidic antibiotics susceptibility test by recognizing the regional concentration change of the bacteria that are cultured in the antibiotics gradient. Finally, a deep learning-based data regression is performed on the data obtained by the proposed vision-based method for robust reporting of data.

  2. Visual Estimation of Bacterial Growth Level in Microfluidic Culture Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyukwang; Kim, Seunggyu; Jeon, Jessie S

    2018-02-03

    Microfluidic devices are an emerging platform for a variety of experiments involving bacterial cell culture, and has advantages including cost and convenience. One inevitable step during bacterial cell culture is the measurement of cell concentration in the channel. The optical density measurement technique is generally used for bacterial growth estimation, but it is not applicable to microfluidic devices due to the small sample volumes in microfluidics. Alternately, cell counting or colony-forming unit methods may be applied, but these do not work in situ; nor do these methods show measurement results immediately. To this end, we present a new vision-based method to estimate the growth level of the bacteria in microfluidic channels. We use Fast Fourier transform (FFT) to detect the frequency level change of the microscopic image, focusing on the fact that the microscopic image becomes rough as the number of cells in the field of view increases, adding high frequencies to the spectrum of the image. Two types of microfluidic devices are used to culture bacteria in liquid and agar gel medium, and time-lapsed images are captured. The images obtained are analyzed using FFT, resulting in an increase in high-frequency noise proportional to the time passed. Furthermore, we apply the developed method in the microfluidic antibiotics susceptibility test by recognizing the regional concentration change of the bacteria that are cultured in the antibiotics gradient. Finally, a deep learning-based data regression is performed on the data obtained by the proposed vision-based method for robust reporting of data.

  3. Regulation of the Na(+)-K+ pump activity and estimation of the reserve capacity in intact rat peritoneal mast cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Johansen, Torben

    1990-01-01

    Evidence is provided that regulation of the Na(+)-K+ pump activity in rat peritoneal mast cells occurs mainly through stimulation of the pump from inside the plasma membrane by sodium. It is demonstrated that there is a large reserve capacity for the exchange of intracellular sodium...... with extracellular potassium in these cells. The maximal pump activity was estimated to be 3230 pmol/10(6) cells per min and Km for extracellular potassium was 1.5 mM....

  4. Growth Performance and Initial Heritability Estimates for Growth Traits in Juvenile Sea Urchin Tripneustes gratilla

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma. Josefa Pante

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Genetic improvement of performance traits of maricultured species is becoming an important concern. Improvement of performance traits is important for two reasons: it enhances the growth and survival of the animals and it translates to economic gains to the fish farmer. In the sea urchin, Tripneustes gratilla, growth performance of the different families and heritabilities for wet weight, test diameter and test height were estimated from 1,020 offspring from a mating of each of the 15 males with 1 or 2 females. Measurements were done monthly starting at the grow-out stage or four months after hatching. There were significant family differences for the performance traits in sea urchin reared in tanks at the BML hatchery as revealed by ANOVA. Estimates of heritabilities based on the sire component of variance were low for wet weight (0.027, test diameter (0.033 and zero for test height. Heritabilities estimated from the dam component of variance were low for wet weight (0.063, moderate for test diameter (0.286 and test height (0.227. The results indicate that test diameter and wet weight have lowly heritable traits, which means that mass or individual selection may not be the best method for improving the traits for sea urchin populations in Bolinao. Other methods such as family and combined family selection should be explored.

  5. Rumen microbial growth estimation using in vitro radiophosphorous incorporation technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bueno, Ives Claudio da Silva; Machado, Mariana de Carvalho; Cabral Filho, Sergio Lucio Salomon; Gobbo, Sarita Priscila; Vitti, Dorinha Miriam Silber Schmidt; Abdalla, Adibe Luiz

    2002-01-01

    Rumen microorganisms are able to transform low biological value nitrogen of feed stuff into high quality protein. To determine how much microbial protein that process forms, radiomarkers can be used. Radiophosphorous has been used to mark microbial protein, as element P is present in all rumen microorganisms (as phospholipids) and the P:N ratio of rumen biomass is quite constant. The aim of this work was to estimate microbial synthesis from feedstuff commonly used in ruminant nutrition in Brazil. Tested feeds were fresh alfalfa, raw sugarcane bagasse, rice hulls, rice meal, soybean meal, wheat meal, Tifton hay, leucaena, dehydrated citrus pulp, wet brewers' grains and cottonseed meal. 32 P-labelled phosphate solution was used as marker for microbial protein. Results showed the diversity of feeds by distinct quantities of nitrogen incorporated into microbial mass. Low nutrient availability feeds (sugarcane bagasse and rice hulls) promoted the lowest values of incorporated nitrogen. Nitrogen incorporation showed positive relationship (r=0.56; P=0.06) with the rate of degradation and negative relationship (r=-0.59; P<0.05) with fiber content of feeds. The results highlight that easier fermentable feeds (higher rates of degradation) and/or with lower fiber contents promote a more efficient microbial growth and better performance for the host animal. (author)

  6. Rumen microbial growth estimation using in vitro radiophosphorous incorporation technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bueno, Ives Claudio da Silva; Machado, Mariana de Carvalho; Cabral Filho, Sergio Lucio Salomon; Gobbo, Sarita Priscila; Vitti, Dorinha Miriam Silber Schmidt; Abdalla, Adibe Luiz [Centro de Energia Nuclear na Agricultura (CENA), Piracicaba, SP (Brazil)

    2002-07-01

    Rumen microorganisms are able to transform low biological value nitrogen of feed stuff into high quality protein. To determine how much microbial protein that process forms, radiomarkers can be used. Radiophosphorous has been used to mark microbial protein, as element P is present in all rumen microorganisms (as phospholipids) and the P:N ratio of rumen biomass is quite constant. The aim of this work was to estimate microbial synthesis from feedstuff commonly used in ruminant nutrition in Brazil. Tested feeds were fresh alfalfa, raw sugarcane bagasse, rice hulls, rice meal, soybean meal, wheat meal, Tifton hay, leucaena, dehydrated citrus pulp, wet brewers' grains and cottonseed meal. {sup 32} P-labelled phosphate solution was used as marker for microbial protein. Results showed the diversity of feeds by distinct quantities of nitrogen incorporated into microbial mass. Low nutrient availability feeds (sugarcane bagasse and rice hulls) promoted the lowest values of incorporated nitrogen. Nitrogen incorporation showed positive relationship (r=0.56; P=0.06) with the rate of degradation and negative relationship (r=-0.59; P<0.05) with fiber content of feeds. The results highlight that easier fermentable feeds (higher rates of degradation) and/or with lower fiber contents promote a more efficient microbial growth and better performance for the host animal. (author)

  7. Estimated impact of global population growth on future wilderness extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, E.

    2012-06-01

    Wilderness areas in the world are threatened by the environmental impacts of the growing global human population. This study estimates the impact of birth rate on the future surface area of biodiverse wilderness and on the proportion of this area without major extinctions. The following four drivers are considered: human population growth (1), agricultural efficiency (2), groundwater drawdown by irrigation (3), and non-agricultural space used by humans (buildings, gardens, roads, etc.) (4). This study indicates that the surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land will reduce with about 5.4% between 2012 and 2050. Further, it indicates that the biodiverse land without major extinctions will reduce with about 10.5%. These percentages are based on a commonly used population trajectory which assumes that birth rates across the globe will reduce in a similar way as has occurred in the past in many developed countries. Future birth rate is however very uncertain. Plausible future birth rates lower than the expected rates lead to much smaller reductions in surface area of biodiverse unmanaged land (0.7% as opposed to 5.4%), and a reduction in the biodiverse land without major extinctions of about 5.6% (as opposed to 10.5%). This indicates that birth rate is an important factor influencing the quality and quantity of wilderness remaining in the future.

  8. Growth of PETROBRAS international gas reserves in Latin America; Crescimento das reservas internacionais de gas da PETROBRAS na America Latina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rabe, Claudio [Pontificia Univ. Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Syrio, Julio Cesar; Pizarro, Jorge Oscar de Sant' Anna [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2004-07-01

    This paper presents the work developed at PETROBRAS International to increase the natural gas reserves and production in Latin America. The results indicate that the company's new strategic focus has been providing an increase of its production of natural gas in 270%, in which daily production in September reached 84192 boed. The same happened with reserves in 2002, that increased in 37,2 billions m{sup 3}. This growth was mainly due to incorporation of Perez Conpanc and Petrolera Santa Fe. (author)

  9. Forest structure, stand composition, and climate-growth response in montane forests of Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark W Schwartz

    Full Text Available Montane forests of western China provide an opportunity to establish baseline studies for climate change. The region is being impacted by climate change, air pollution, and significant human impacts from tourism. We analyzed forest stand structure and climate-growth relationships from Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve in northwestern Sichuan province, along the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau. We conducted a survey to characterize forest stand diversity and structure in plots occurring between 2050 and 3350 m in elevation. We also evaluated seedling and sapling recruitment and tree-ring data from four conifer species to assess: 1 whether the forest appears in transition toward increased hardwood composition; 2 if conifers appear stressed by recent climate change relative to hardwoods; and 3 how growth of four dominant species responds to recent climate. Our study is complicated by clear evidence of 20(th century timber extraction. Focusing on regions lacking evidence of logging, we found a diverse suite of conifers (Pinus, Abies, Juniperus, Picea, and Larix strongly dominate the forest overstory. We found population size structures for most conifer tree species to be consistent with self-replacement and not providing evidence of shifting composition toward hardwoods. Climate-growth analyses indicate increased growth with cool temperatures in summer and fall. Warmer temperatures during the growing season could negatively impact conifer growth, indicating possible seasonal climate water deficit as a constraint on growth. In contrast, however, we found little relationship to seasonal precipitation. Projected warming does not yet have a discernible signal on trends in tree growth rates, but slower growth with warmer growing season climates suggests reduced potential future forest growth.

  10. The use of stored carbon reserves in growth of temperate tree roots and leaf buds: Analyses using radiocarbon measurements and modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaudinski, J.B.; Torn, M.S.; Riley, W.J.; Swanston, C.; Trumbore, S.E.; Joslin, J.D.; Majdi, H.; Dawson, T.E.; Hanson, P.J.

    2009-02-01

    Characterizing the use of carbon (C) reserves in trees is important for understanding regional and global C cycles, stress responses, asynchrony between photosynthetic activity and growth demand, and isotopic exchanges in studies of tree physiology and ecosystem C cycling. Using an inadvertent, whole-ecosystem radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) release in a temperate deciduous oak forest and numerical modeling, we estimated that the mean age of stored C used to grow both leaf buds and new roots is 0.7 years and about 55% of new-root growth annually comes from stored C. Therefore, the calculated mean age of C used to grow new-root tissue is {approx}0.4 years. In short, new roots contain a lot of stored C but it is young in age. Additionally, the type of structure used to model stored C input is important. Model structures that did not include storage, or that assumed stored and new C mixed well (within root or shoot tissues) before being used for root growth, did not fit the data nearly as well as when a distinct storage pool was used. Consistent with these whole-ecosystem labeling results, the mean age of C in new-root tissues determined using 'bomb-{sup 14}C' in three additional forest sites in North America and Europe (one deciduous, two coniferous) was less than 1-2 years. The effect of stored reserves on estimated ages of fine roots is unlikely to be large in most natural abundance isotope studies. However, models of root C dynamics should take stored reserves into account, particularly for pulse-labeling studies and fast-cycling roots (<1 years).

  11. OPTIMIZATION OF MANAGEMENT APPROACHES: RESERVES GROWTH OF EFFICIENCY OF NR-MANAGEMENT IN THE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Sh. Fedorova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes one of the possible ways of building more eff ective relationships between managers and subordinates, taking into account variable range of individual motivation, capabilities and potential of people belonging to diff erent types of employees.The topic is urgent due to the changes in modern business processes that require new approaches to management. Goal/objectives. Our aim is to develop an approach to the creation of human resources management model that takes into account not only the knowledge and skills of employees, but also their deeper individual characteristics. The approach accounts for the hierarchy of one's life values and drives, temperament, strains, habitual and unfamiliar social roles, way of thinking, preferred pattern of communication, peculiarities of the behavior in power relations and a host of other features. We suggest that asking them into account is an incredible opportunity for productivity growth and team eff ectiveness improvements.Methodology. The theoretical basis of the article are studies of Russian and foreign authors on the classifications and typologies of personality, of social roles, roles in the team, as well as subordinate types. The article refl ects the results of studies and observations of the authors on the peculiarities of manifestation of diff erent types of people in decision-making and business communications.Results. We suggest the typology of subordinates describing the key characteristics and preferences of representatives of the types. The typology allows to build relationships between managers and subordinates more eff ectively.Conclusions/significance. We propose typology of subordinates that can be used to develop management models focused on certain types of employees. This, in turn, may be useful for structuring of human management, retrieval of unused but eff ective management tools, and for building an eff ective staff -management relations network as a whole to

  12. Postnatal growth, age estimation and development of foraging ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    growth after the first year (Kunz and Stern 1995). The values of the lengths of forearm and epiphyseal gap dur- ing their linear phases of growth increased during the preflight period and decreased during the postflight period, and were reliable for deriving equations to esti- mate the age of young bats (e.g. Kunz and Robson ...

  13. Estimation of individual growth trajectories when repeated measures are missing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brooks, Mollie Elizabeth; Clements, Christopher; Pemberton, Josephine

    2017-01-01

    Individuals in a population vary in their growth due to hidden and observed factors such as age, genetics, environment, disease, and carryover effects from past environments. Because size affects fitness, growth trajectories scale up to affect population dynamics. However, it can be difficult to ...

  14. Estimation of genetic parameters for growth traits in Brangus cattle

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    p2492989

    3Agricultural Business Research Institute, UNE Armidale NSW 2351, ... Table 1 Descriptive statistics of data after editing that were used in the .... Variance components due to direct and maternal effects for growth traits of Australian beef cattle.

  15. Estimation of algal colonization growth on mortar surface using a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Thu-Hien Tran

    a hybridization of machine learning and metaheuristic optimization ... support vector regression (LS-SVR) for modelling the growth time of the green alga Klebsormidium flaccidum ...... 2012 Landslide susceptibility assessment in the Hoa Binh.

  16. Postnatal growth, age estimation and development of foraging ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    mothers. There was no significant difference in the growth pattern of the young maintained in captivity compared ..... interactions, and development of vocalizations in the vesper- ... Kunz T H and Hood W R 2000 Parental care and postnatal.

  17. Dynamic contents of energy and organic nutrient in steppe growths of the Mohelenská Serpentine Steppe National Nature Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Veselý

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to determine the dynamics in the content of organic nutrients, ash and energy in dry matter of growths within the Mohelenská Serpentine Steppe National Nature Reserve (NPR, and to document their initial nutritive value before the intended grazing. Plant samples in 1995 and 1996 during the growing season in 14-days intervals from the area of 3 × 1 m2. Amounts of dry matter, fibre, nitrogen substances, fat and ashes were determined in growths according to the ANONYM (2001. Nitrogen-free extract substances (BNLV were determined by final calculating; BE, ME, NEL, NEV, PDIN and PDIE were calculated using the regression equations (VESELÝ and ZEMAN, 1995, 1997. Combining ratio (SP was calculated according to the relation: SP = PDIN (g/NEL (MJ. The dynamics of the contents of dry matter, organic nutrients, ashes and energy were assessed in the growth during the vegetation period and the dynamics was compared with standardized requirements of sheep (no pregnant ewe. Regression and correlation relations for nutrition value of the growths during vegetation period were calculated by use of mathematical-statistical analysis. Only statistically significantly (P<0.05 different parameters form the zero are presented in the paper. The content of dry matter in the growths culminated in summer months (places D8, E13, B17 and it was accompanied by depression in autumn months. After the highest content of crude protein, PDIN and PDIE recorded in spring months summer depression (August followed, this depression was partly balanced by autumn growth of vegetation. The content of ash in steppe growths increased during evaluated period. Similar tendency was registered for fat. Also the contents of fibre and BNLV linearly increased. The contents of nitrogen nutrients and energy corresponded with standardized requirements for sheep during whole vegetation period. Conversely the content of fibre highly exceeded the requirement except in spring

  18. Estimation of coronary flow reserve by sestamibi imaging in patients with mild hypertension and normal coronary arteries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storto, G.; Gallicchio, R.; Maddalena, F.; Pellegrino, T.; Petretta, M.; Fiumara, G.; Cuocolo, A.

    2015-01-01

    Patients with hypertension may exhibit abnormal vasodilator capacity during pharmacological vasodilatation. We assessed coronary flow reserve (CFR) by sestamibi imaging in hypertensive patients with normal coronary vessels. Twenty-five patients with untreated mild essential hypertension and normal coronary vessels and 10 control subjects underwent dipyridamole-rest Tc-99m sestamibi imaging. Myocardial blood flow (MBF) was estimated by measuring first transit counts in pulmonary artery and myocardial counts from tomograhic images. CFR was expressed as the ratio of stress to rest MBF. Coronary vascular resistances (CVR) were computed as the ratio between mean arterial pressure and MBF. Estimated MBF at rest was not different in patients and controls (1.11±0.59 vs. 1.14±0.28 counts/pixel/s; P=0.87). Conversely, stress MBF was lower in patients than in controls (1.55±0.47 vs. 2.68±0.53 counts/pixel/s; P<0.001). Thus, CFR was reduced in patients compared to controls (1.61±0.58 vs. 2.43±0.62; P<0.001). Rest and stress CVR values were higher in patients (P<0.001), while stress-induced changes in CVR were not different (P=0.08) between patients (-51%) and controls (-62%). In the overall study population, a significant relation between CFR and stress-induced changes in CVR was observed (r=-0.86; P<0.001). Sestamibi imaging may detect impaired coronary vascular function in response to dipyridamole in patients with untreated mild essential hypertension and normal coronary arteries. A mild increase in arterial blood pressure does not affect baseline MBF, but impairs coronary reserve due to the amplified resting coronary resistances.

  19. Derelict fishing line provides a useful proxy for estimating levels of non-compliance with no-take marine reserves.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David H Williamson

    Full Text Available No-take marine reserves (NTMRs are increasingly being established to conserve or restore biodiversity and to enhance the sustainability of fisheries. Although effectively designed and protected NTMR networks can yield conservation and fishery benefits, reserve effects often fail to manifest in systems where there are high levels of non-compliance by fishers (poaching. Obtaining reliable estimates of NTMR non-compliance can be expensive and logistically challenging, particularly in areas with limited or non-existent resources for conducting surveillance and enforcement. Here we assess the utility of density estimates and re-accumulation rates of derelict (lost and abandoned fishing line as a proxy for fishing effort and NTMR non-compliance on fringing coral reefs in three island groups of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP, Australia. Densities of derelict fishing line were consistently lower on reefs within old (>20 year NTMRs than on non-NTMR reefs (significantly in the Palm and Whitsunday Islands, whereas line densities did not differ significantly between reefs in new NTMRs (5 years of protection and non-NTMR reefs. A manipulative experiment in which derelict fishing lines were removed from a subset of the monitoring sites demonstrated that lines re-accumulated on NTMR reefs at approximately one third (32.4% of the rate observed on non-NTMR reefs over a thirty-two month period. Although these inshore NTMRs have long been considered some of the best protected within the GBRMP, evidence presented here suggests that the level of non-compliance with NTMR regulations is higher than previously assumed.

  20. Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

    2009-01-01

    We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

  1. Effects of mistletoe removal on growth, N and C reserves, and carbon and oxygen isotope composition in Scots pine hosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Cai-Feng; Gessler, Arthur; Rigling, Andreas; Dobbertin, Matthias; Han, Xing-Guo; Li, Mai-He

    2016-05-01

    Most mistletoes are xylem-tapping hemiparasites, which derive their resources from the host's xylem solution. Thus, they affect the host's water relations and resource balance. To understand the physiological mechanisms underlying the mistletoe-host relationship, we experimentally removed Viscum album ssp. austriacum (Wiesb.) Vollmann from adult Pinus sylvestris L. host trees growing in a Swiss dry valley. We analyzed the effects of mistletoe removal over time on host tree growth and on concentrations of nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) and nitrogen (N) in needles, fine roots and sapwood. In addition, we assessed the δ(13)C and δ(18)O in host tree rings. After mistletoe removal, δ(13)C did not change in newly produced tree rings compared with tree rings in control trees (still infected with mistletoe), but δ(18)O values increased. This pattern might be interpreted as a decrease in assimilation (A) and stomatal conductance (gs), but in our study, it most likely points to an inadequacy of the dual isotope approach. Instead, we interpret the unchanged δ(13)C in tree rings upon mistletoe removal as a balanced increase in A and gs that resulted in a constant intrinsic water use efficiency (defined as A/gs). Needle area-based concentrations of N, soluble sugars and NSC, as well as needle length, single needle area, tree ring width and shoot growth, were significantly higher in trees from which mistletoe was removed than in control trees. This finding suggests that mistletoe removal results in increased N availability and carbon gain, which in turn leads to increased growth rates of the hosts. Hence, in areas where mistletoe is common and the population is large, mistletoe management (e.g., removal) may be needed to improve the host vigor, growth rate and productivity, especially for relatively small trees and crop trees in xeric growth conditions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Estimation of myocardial flow reserve utilizing an ultrafast cardiac SPECT: Comparison with coronary angiography, fractional flow reserve, and the SYNTAX score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyagawa, Masao; Nishiyama, Yoshiko; Uetani, Teruyoshi; Ogimoto, Akiyoshi; Ikeda, Shuntaro; Ishimura, Hayato; Watanabe, Emiri; Tashiro, Rami; Tanabe, Yuki; Kido, Teruhito; Kurata, Akira; Mochizuki, Teruhito

    2017-10-01

    Quantitative assessment of myocardial flow reserve (MFR) by single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is challenging but may facilitate evaluation of multi-vessel coronary artery disease (CAD). We enrolled 153 patients with suspected or known CAD, referred for pharmacological stress MPI. They underwent a 99m Tc-perfusion stress/rest SPECT with an ultrafast cadmium-zinc-telluride (CZT) camera. Dynamic data were acquired and time-activity curves fitted to a 1-tissue compartment analysis with input function. K1 was assigned for stress and rest data. The MFR index (MFRi) was calculated as K1 stress/K1 at-rest. The findings were validated by invasive coronary angiography in 69 consecutive patients. The global MFRi was 1.46 (1.16-1.76), 1.33 (1.12-1.54), and 1.18 (1.01-1.35), for 1-vessel disease (VD), 2-VD, and 3-VD, respectively. In the 3-VD, global MFRi was lower than that in 0-VD (1.63 [1.22-2.04], Pfraction (OR: 61.6 [57.5-66.0]), and global MFRi (OR: 119.6 [111.5-127.7], P=0.002). A cut-off value of 1.3 yielded 93.3% sensitivity and 75.9% specificity for diagnosing 3-VD. Fractional flow reserve positively correlated with regional MFRi (r=0.62, P=0.008), and the SYNTAX score correlated negatively with global MFRi (r=0.567, P=0.0003). We developed and validated a clinically available method for MFR quantification by dynamic 99m Tc-perfusion SPECT utilizing a CZT camera, which improves the detectability of multi-vessel CAD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. The Biasing Effects of Unmodeled ARMA Time Series Processes on Latent Growth Curve Model Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivo, Stephen; Fan, Xitao; Witta, Lea

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the robustness of estimated growth curve models when there is stationary autocorrelation among manifest variable errors. The results suggest that when, in practice, growth curve models are fitted to longitudinal data, alternative rival hypotheses to consider would include growth models that also specify…

  4. Estimation of growth curve parameters in Konya Merino sheep ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was to determine the fitness of Quadratic, Cubic, Gompertz and Logistic functions to the growth curves of Konya Merino lambs obtained by using monthly records of live weight from birth to 480 days of age. The models were evaluated according to determination coefficient (R2), mean square ...

  5. Tree-growth analyses to estimate tree species' drought tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eilmann, B.; Rigling, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree

  6. Short communication Estimation of growth curve parameters in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ikeskin

    The shape of growth curves has been reported to vary according to the species of .... a,b,c The means within columns with different superscripts are significantly .... J. Anim. Sci. 84, 2642-2654. The South African Journal of Animal Science is ...

  7. Estimates of age, growth and mortality of spotted catfish, Arius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    2011-11-02

    Nov 2, 2011 ... the major by-catch species, and hence more attention should be paid to the dynamics of this stock. .... reflect the sea surface temperature of fishing ground (in this study, ... growth curve of spotted catfish is shown in Figure 4.

  8. Fish growth parameters are commonly estimated from the counts of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    spamer

    >300 mm TL were tagged with external plastic dart tags, 89 mm long ... lithognathus were compared to predictions from growth models based on otolith ring counts. Galjoen ..... On the other hand, a new type of bio-compatible tag, which does ...

  9. Estimation of the growth curve and heritability of the growth rate for giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) cubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, T D; Wang, C D; Jin, L; Wei, M; Wu, K; Zhang, Y H; Zhang, H M; Li, D S

    2015-03-27

    Giant panda cubs have a low survival rate during the newborn and early growth stages. However, the growth and developmental parameters of giant panda cubs during the early lactation stage (from birth to 6 months) are not well known. We examined the growth and development of giant panda cubs by the Chapman growth curve model and estimated the heritability of the maximum growth rate at the early lactation stage. We found that 83 giant panda cubs reached their maximum growth rate at approximately 75-120 days after birth. The body weight of cubs at 75 days was 4285.99 g. Furthermore, we estimated that the heritability of the maximum growth rate was moderate (h(2) = 0.38). Our study describes the growth and development of giant panda cubs at the early lactation stage and provides valuable growth benchmarks. We anticipate that our results will be a starting point for more detailed research on increasing the survival rate of giant panda cubs. Feeding programs for giant panda cubs need further improvement.

  10. Applying a particle filtering technique for canola crop growth stage estimation in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Abhijit; Tan, Weikai; Li, Yifeng; McNairn, Heather; Jiao, Xianfeng; Hosseini, Mehdi

    2017-10-01

    Accurate crop growth stage estimation is important in precision agriculture as it facilitates improved crop management, pest and disease mitigation and resource planning. Earth observation imagery, specifically Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, can provide field level growth estimates while covering regional scales. In this paper, RADARSAT-2 quad polarization and TerraSAR-X dual polarization SAR data and ground truth growth stage data are used to model the influence of canola growth stages on SAR imagery extracted parameters. The details of the growth stage modeling work are provided, including a) the development of a new crop growth stage indicator that is continuous and suitable as the state variable in the dynamic estimation procedure; b) a selection procedure for SAR polarimetric parameters that is sensitive to both linear and nonlinear dependency between variables; and c) procedures for compensation of SAR polarimetric parameters for different beam modes. The data was collected over three crop growth seasons in Manitoba, Canada, and the growth model provides the foundation of a novel dynamic filtering framework for real-time estimation of canola growth stages using the multi-sensor and multi-mode SAR data. A description of the dynamic filtering framework that uses particle filter as the estimator is also provided in this paper.

  11. Tree-growth analyses to estimate tree species' drought tolerance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eilmann, Britta; Rigling, Andreas

    2012-02-01

    Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree species' potential for surviving future aggravated environmental conditions is rather demanding. The aim of this study was to find a tree-ring-based method suitable for identifying very drought-tolerant species, particularly potential substitute species for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Valais. In this inner-Alpine valley, Scots pine used to be the dominating species for dry forests, but today it suffers from high drought-induced mortality. We investigate the growth response of two native tree species, Scots pine and European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), and two non-native species, black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. var. menziesii), to drought. This involved analysing how the radial increment of these species responded to increasing water shortage (abandonment of irrigation) and to increasingly frequent drought years. Black pine and Douglas fir are able to cope with drought better than Scots pine and larch, as they show relatively high radial growth even after irrigation has been stopped and a plastic growth response to drought years. European larch does not seem to be able to cope with these dry conditions as it lacks the ability to recover from drought years. The analysis of trees' short-term response to extreme climate events seems to be the most promising and suitable method for detecting how tolerant a tree species is towards drought. However, combining all the methods used in this study provides a complete picture of how water shortage could limit species.

  12. STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF THE GREEN GROWTH IN UKRAINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Yeliseyeva

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available A set of indicators proposed by the OECD that assesses economic opportunities arising from the green growth as well as helps policy-making concerning environmental issues, in particular indicators on technology and innovation, production and consumption of environmental goods and services, environmentally related prices and transfers as well as associated to green growth financial flows, have been studied in detail in this article. The results of the comparison analysis of the application of the abovementioned indicators by the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Korea are presented in the article. Based on the performed analysis possible application of the proposed by OECD set of indicators to the Ukraine’s national context has been explored. Proposed set of green growth indicators can be applied in Ukraine, however further development is required to enhance the statistical data accounting and availability. Among the main challenges to the implementation of such system in Ukraine is the lack of data as well as medium compliance of the Ukraine’s Environmental Accounts with the European regulation, which complicates the development of national policy towards green economy and the international comparison.

  13. Estimating Leaching Requirements for Barley Growth under Saline Irrigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Al-Busaidi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The utilization of marginal water resources for agriculture is receiving considerable attention. The lands irrigated with saline water are required to reduce salt accumulations through leaching and/or drainage practices. A field experiment was carried out to investigate the effect of saline irrigation and leaching fraction on barley (Hordeum vulgare L. growth. For this purpose highly saline water was diluted to the salinity levels of 3, 6 and 9 dS m-1 and applied by drip irrigation at 0.0, 0.15, 0.20 and 0.25 leaching fractions (LF. The results of the experiment showed that both quantity and quality of water regulated salts distribution within the soil in the following manner: a the salts were found higher near or immediate below the soil surface; b an enhanced LF carried more salts down the soil horizon but there was no significant difference in plant yield between different treatments of leaching fractions. Salinity of water significantly impaired barley growth. The good drainage of sandy soil enhanced the leaching process and minimized the differences between leaching fractions. The increment in saline treatments (3, 6 and 9 dS m-1 added more salts and stressed plant growth. However, the conjunctive use of marginal water at proportional LF could be effective in enhancing the yield potential of crops in water-scarce areas.

  14. Variance component and heritability estimates of early growth traits ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    as selection criteria for meat production in sheep (Anon, 1970; Olson et ai., 1976;. Lasslo et ai., 1985; Badenhorst et ai., 1991). If these traits are to be included in a breeding programme, accurate estimates of breeding values will be needed to optimize selection programmes. This requires a knowledge of variance and co-.

  15. Reconciling Estimates of Earnings Processes in Growth Rates and Levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daly, Moira; Hryshko, Dmytro; Manovskii, Iourii

    The stochastic process for earnings is the key element of incomplete markets models in modern quantitative macroeconomics. It determines both the equilibrium distributions of endogenous outcomes and the design of optimal policies. Yet, there is no consensus in the literature on the relative...... magnitudes of the permanent and transitory innovations in earnings. When estimation is based on the earnings moments in levels, the variance of transitory shocks is found to be relatively high. When the moments in differences are used, the variance of the permanent component is relatively high instead. We...

  16. Small-vessel Survey and Auction Sampling to Estimate Growth and Maturity of Eteline Snappers

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Small-vessel Survey and Auction Sampling to Estimate Growth and Maturity of Eteline Snappers and Improve Data-Limited Stock Assessments. This biosampling project...

  17. An Evaluation of Growth Models as Predictive Tools for Estimates at Completion (EAC)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Trahan, Elizabeth N

    2009-01-01

    ...) as the Estimates at Completion (EAC). Our research evaluates the prospect of nonlinear growth modeling as an alternative to the current predictive tools used for calculating EAC, such as the Cost Performance Index (CPI...

  18. Estimating the Broad-Sense Heritability of Early Growth of Cowpea

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Nicole W.; Xu, Shizhong; Ehlers, Jeff

    2009-01-01

    Cowpea is an important tropical crop. It provides a large proportion of the food resource for the African human population and their livestock. The yield and quality of cowpea have been dramatically improved through traditional breeding strategies for the past few decades. However, reports of heritability estimates for early growth of cowpea are rare. We designed a simple experiment to estimate the broad-sense heritability of early growth. We randomly selected 15 cowpea varieties among a tota...

  19. Genetic and phenotypic parameter estimates for growth traits of Hainan Black goat in southern China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhou, Han Lin; Gu, Li Hong; Sun, Yanyan; Xu, Tie Shan; Rong, Guang

    2015-01-01

    Genetic improvement of the growth of Hainan Black goats is a major concern as the breed is an important meat-type goat raised in southern China. To estimate genetic and phenotypic parameters for growth traits for this breed, a population of 1354 Hainan Black goats born and maintained at the

  20. Determinants of long-term growth : New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sturm, J.-E.; de Haan, J.

    2005-01-01

    Two important problems exist in cross-country growth studies: outliers and model uncertainty. Employing Sala-i-Martin's (1997a,b) data set, we first use robust estimation and analyze to what extent outliers influence OLS regressions. We then use both OLS and robust estimation techniques in applying

  1. Multiple growth-correlated life history traits estimated simultaneously in indivuals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mollet, F.M.; Ernande, B.; Brunel, T.P.A.; Rijnsdorp, A.D.

    2010-01-01

    We present a new methodology to estimate rates of energy acquisition, maintenance, reproductive investment and the onset of maturation (four-trait estimation) by fitting an energy allocation model to individual growth trajectories. The accuracy and precision of the method is evaluated on simulated

  2. Estimating continuous monthly baseflow time series and their possible applications in the context of the ecological reserve

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smakhtin, VU

    2001-04-01

    Full Text Available (river and groundwater) are, therefore, dependent. In this example, the assumption is that IFRs (river reserve flows) determine the extent to which groundwater resources may be impacted in the absence of any surface water resource development (the impacts... (IFRs) are used instead of reference natural streamflow time series. The corresponding groundwater storage time series will then represent the groundwater reserve. These storages may provisionally be called ?IFR driven?. Two component reserve time series...

  3. Conditional random slope: A new approach for estimating individual child growth velocity in epidemiological research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Michael; Bassani, Diego G; Racine-Poon, Amy; Goldenberg, Anna; Ali, Syed Asad; Kang, Gagandeep; Premkumar, Prasanna S; Roth, Daniel E

    2017-09-10

    Conditioning child growth measures on baseline accounts for regression to the mean (RTM). Here, we present the "conditional random slope" (CRS) model, based on a linear-mixed effects model that incorporates a baseline-time interaction term that can accommodate multiple data points for a child while also directly accounting for RTM. In two birth cohorts, we applied five approaches to estimate child growth velocities from 0 to 12 months to assess the effect of increasing data density (number of measures per child) on the magnitude of RTM of unconditional estimates, and the correlation and concordance between the CRS and four alternative metrics. Further, we demonstrated the differential effect of the choice of velocity metric on the magnitude of the association between infant growth and stunting at 2 years. RTM was minimally attenuated by increasing data density for unconditional growth modeling approaches. CRS and classical conditional models gave nearly identical estimates with two measures per child. Compared to the CRS estimates, unconditional metrics had moderate correlation (r = 0.65-0.91), but poor agreement in the classification of infants with relatively slow growth (kappa = 0.38-0.78). Estimates of the velocity-stunting association were the same for CRS and classical conditional models but differed substantially between conditional versus unconditional metrics. The CRS can leverage the flexibility of linear mixed models while addressing RTM in longitudinal analyses. © 2017 The Authors American Journal of Human Biology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Sustainable economic growth and exhaustible resources: A model and estimation for the US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Almuth Scholl

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies current models on sustainable economic growth with resource constraints and explores to what extent resource constraints can be overcome by substitution and technological change. We also study the problem of intergenerational equity and the different criteria that have been suggested in the literature. The central part of this paper is the presentation of stylized facts on exhaustible resources and an estimation of a basic model with resource constraints for US time series data. The estimated years left until depletion and the empirical trends of the ratios of capital stock and consumption to resources seem to indicate that there might be a threat to sustainable growth in the future. In our estimation, we obtain parameter values, which help to interpret the extent to which growth with exhaustible resources is sustainable.

  5. A Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Capital Inflow and Growth in sub Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chimere Okechukwu Iheonu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically analysed the impact of capital inflow on growth in sub Saharan Africa employing the Pooled Mean Group estimator from the years 1985 to 2015. The study utilised Foreign Direct Investment (FDI, Official Development Assistance and Foreign Aid (ODA and Remittance (REM as indicators of capital inflow. Short run result indicates that the various forms of capital inflow do not have significant impact on growth but while FDI and REM were negatively related to growth, AID was positively related to growth. However, in the long run, FDI and AID have a positive and significant impact on growth while REM has a negative and significant impact on growth in sub Saharan Africa. The study concludes that planning and legislative lags are inferential from the insignificance of capital inflows on growth in the short run, while growth falls in the long run as a result of increase in labour’s income earned in diaspora. The study recommends that in the short run, economic policies should be tailored towards the development of technological based services while in the long run, government should create schemes for citizens in diaspora to participate in, to endear sector-specific economic activities as well as targeting FDI and AID as policy options to spur growth. Finally, specific capital inflow policy options should be employed as not all forms of capital inflow precipitates growth.

  6. An Approach of Estimating Individual Growth Curves for Young Thoroughbred Horses Based on Their Birthdays

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT We propose an approach of estimating individual growth curves based on the birthday information of Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. The compensatory growth patterns appear during only the winter and spring seasons in the life of growing horses, and the meeting point between winter and spring depends on the birthday of each horse. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Based on the equations, a parameter denoting the birthday information was added for the modeling of the individual growth curves for each horse by shifting the meeting points in the compensatory growth periods. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of Thoroughbred colts and fillies, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements of both sexes were used in the analyses. The results of predicted error difference and Akaike Information Criterion showed that the individual growth curves using birthday information better fit to the body weight and withers height data than not using them. The individual growth curve for each horse would be a useful tool for the feeding managements of young Japanese Thoroughbreds in compensatory growth periods. PMID:25013356

  7. Modeling mangrove biomass using remote sensing based age and growth estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomasino, D.; Fatoyinbo, T. E.; Feliciano, E. A.; Lee, S. K.; Trettin, C.; Mangora, M.; Rahman, M.

    2016-12-01

    Mangroves are highly regarded coastal forests because of their ecosystem services and high carbon storage potential. In addition, these forests can develop rapidly in locations where congenial environmental conditions and sediment supply are available. Monitoring the growth and age of developing mangrove forests is crucial for sustainable management and estimating carbon stocks. Combining imagery from radar and optical satellites (e.g., TanDEM-X and Landsat), we can estimate young mangrove growth and age at regional and continental scales. We used TanDEM-X radar interferometry for modeling canopy height in 2013 and Landsat to measure land cover change from 1990 to 2013. Annual NDVI composites were determined for each calendar year between 1990 and 2013. New land areas gained from the transition of water to vegetation were determined by the differences in annual NDVI composites and the reference year 2013. The year of the greatest NDVI difference that met the threshold criteria was used as the initial tree height (0 m). Annual canopy height growth rates were estimated by the duration between land generation times and 2013 canopy height models derived from TanDEM-X and very-high resolution optical data. In this presentation, we compare growth rates and biomass accumulation in mangrove forests at four river deltas; the Zambezi (Mozambique), Rufiji (Tanzania), Ganges (Bangladesh), and Mekong (Vietnam). The spatial patterns of growth rates coincided with characteristic successional paradigms and stream morphology, where the maximum growth rates typically occurred along prograding creek banks. Initial comparisons between height-only and growth-age biomass indicate that the latter tend to overestimate biomass for younger forest stands of similar height. Both the vertical (e.g., canopy height) and horizontal (e.g., expansion) growth rates measured from remote sensing can garner important information regarding mangrove succession and primary productivity. Continued research

  8. Growth Estimators and Confidence Intervals for the Mean of Negative Binomial Random Variables with Unknown Dispersion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shilane

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The negative binomial distribution becomes highly skewed under extreme dispersion. Even at moderately large sample sizes, the sample mean exhibits a heavy right tail. The standard normal approximation often does not provide adequate inferences about the data's expected value in this setting. In previous work, we have examined alternative methods of generating confidence intervals for the expected value. These methods were based upon Gamma and Chi Square approximations or tail probability bounds such as Bernstein's inequality. We now propose growth estimators of the negative binomial mean. Under high dispersion, zero values are likely to be overrepresented in the data. A growth estimator constructs a normal-style confidence interval by effectively removing a small, predetermined number of zeros from the data. We propose growth estimators based upon multiplicative adjustments of the sample mean and direct removal of zeros from the sample. These methods do not require estimating the nuisance dispersion parameter. We will demonstrate that the growth estimators' confidence intervals provide improved coverage over a wide range of parameter values and asymptotically converge to the sample mean. Interestingly, the proposed methods succeed despite adding both bias and variance to the normal approximation.

  9. On valuing patches: estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamie S. Sanderlin; Peter M. Waser; James E. Hines; James D. Nichols

    2012-01-01

    Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture­recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution...

  10. A New Extant Respirometric Assay to Estimate Intrinsic Growth Parameters Applied to Study Plasmid Metabolic Burden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seoane, Jose Miguel; Sin, Gürkan; Lardon, Laurent

    2010-01-01

    mathematical treatment, or wake-up pulses prior to the analysis.. Identifiability and sensitivity analysis were performed to confirm the robustness of the new approach for obtaining unique and accurate estimates of growth kinetic parameters. The new experimental design was applied to establish the. metabolic...

  11. Estimating and decomposing productivity growth of the electricity generation industry in Malaysia: A stochastic frontier analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    See, Kok Fong; Coelli, Tim

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the total factor productivity (TFP) growth of the Malaysian electricity generation industry over the 1998 to 2005 period. The stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach is used to measure TFP change and decompose TFP growth into efficiency change and technical progress. We find that it achieved average annual TFP growth of 2.34%, with technical change contributing the most to the TFP growth over the eight year period. We hence hypothesise that the new power plants with their newer capital-embodied technologies commencing during the sample period are likely to be the main reason for this strong technical change. In addition, it is also noted that this estimate for the Malaysian electricity generation industry is larger than the estimate obtained for the electricity sector as a whole, where we obtain 1.34% per year for a comparable period. -- Highlights: •This is the first empirical study that examines the TFP growth of the Malaysian electricity generation industry using the SFA method. •An average annual TFP change of the Malaysian electricity generation industry over eight years (1998-2005) has been achieved at 2.34% per year. •The technical progress contributing the most to the TFP growth and technical efficiency change and scale change making small contributions over the sample period

  12. Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

  13. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  14. Parameter estimations in predictive microbiology: Statistically sound modelling of the microbial growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkermans, Simen; Logist, Filip; Van Impe, Jan F

    2018-04-01

    When building models to describe the effect of environmental conditions on the microbial growth rate, parameter estimations can be performed either with a one-step method, i.e., directly on the cell density measurements, or in a two-step method, i.e., via the estimated growth rates. The two-step method is often preferred due to its simplicity. The current research demonstrates that the two-step method is, however, only valid if the correct data transformation is applied and a strict experimental protocol is followed for all experiments. Based on a simulation study and a mathematical derivation, it was demonstrated that the logarithm of the growth rate should be used as a variance stabilizing transformation. Moreover, the one-step method leads to a more accurate estimation of the model parameters and a better approximation of the confidence intervals on the estimated parameters. Therefore, the one-step method is preferred and the two-step method should be avoided. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. An adaptive ARX model to estimate the RUL of aluminum plates based on its crack growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barraza-Barraza, Diana; Tercero-Gómez, Víctor G.; Beruvides, Mario G.; Limón-Robles, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    A wide variety of Condition-Based Maintenance (CBM) techniques deal with the problem of predicting the time for an asset fault. Most statistical approaches rely on historical failure data that might not be available in several practical situations. To address this issue, practitioners might require the use of self-starting approaches that consider only the available knowledge about the current degradation process and the asset operating context to update the prognostic model. Some authors use Autoregressive (AR) models for this purpose that are adequate when the asset operating context is constant, however, if it is variable, the accuracy of the models can be affected. In this paper, three autoregressive models with exogenous variables (ARX) were constructed, and their capability to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of a process was evaluated following the case of the aluminum crack growth problem. An existing stochastic model of aluminum crack growth was implemented and used to assess RUL estimation performance of the proposed ARX models through extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Point and interval estimations were made based only on individual history, behavior, operating conditions and failure thresholds. Both analytic and bootstrapping techniques were used in the estimation process. Finally, by including recursive parameter estimation and a forgetting factor, the ARX methodology adapts to changing operating conditions and maintain the focus on the current degradation level of an asset.

  16. Estimation of the growth kinetics for the cooling crystallisation of paracetamol and ethanol solutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Niall A.; Ó'Ciardhá, Clifford T.; Frawley, Patrick J.

    2011-08-01

    This work details the estimation of the growth kinetics of paracetamol in ethanol solutions for cooling crystallisation processes, by means of isothermal seeded batch experiments. The growth kinetics of paracetamol crystals were evaluated in isolation, with the growth rate assumed to be size independent. Prior knowledge of the Metastable Zone Width (MSZW) was required, so that supersaturation ratios of 1.7-1.1 could be induced in solution without the occurrence of nucleation. The technique involved the utilisation of two in-situ Process Analytical Techniques (PATs), with a Focused Beam Reflectance Measurement (FBRM ®) utilised to ensure that negligible nucleation occurred and an Attenuated Total Reflectance-Fourier Transform Infrared (ATR-FTIR) probe employed for online monitoring of solute concentration. Initial Particle Size Distributions (PSDs) were used in conjunction with desupersaturation profiles to determine the growth rate as a function of temperature and supersaturation. Furthermore, the effects of seed loading and size on the crystal growth rate were investigated. A numerical model, incorporating the population balance equation and the method of moments, was utilised to describe the crystal growth process. Experimental parameters were compared to the model simulation, with the accuracy of the model validated by means of the final product PSDs and solute concentration.

  17. SERIAL ULTRASOUND TO ESTIMATE FETAL GROWTH CURVES IN SOUTHERN TAMANDUA (TAMANDUA TETRADACTYLA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Rachel; Wolf, Tiffany M; Robertson, Heather; Colburn, Margarita Woc; Moreno, Alexis; Moresco, Anneke; Napier, Anne Elise; Nofs, Sally A

    2017-06-01

    From 2012 to 2015, 16 pregnancies were monitored by ultrasonography in nine tamanduas ( Tamandua tetradactyla ) housed in three zoological facilities. Sonographic measurements were recorded to establish fetal growth curves using thoracic and skull landmarks described for giant anteaters ( Myrmecophaga tridactyla ). All pregnancies resulted in the uncomplicated delivery of healthy offspring, thus gestational development was considered normal. These data may be used as a reference for normal fetal development with potential for estimating parturition date in the absence of breeding data.

  18. Estimating the Parameters of Software Reliability Growth Models Using the Grey Wolf Optimization Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Alaa F. Sheta; Amal Abdel-Raouf

    2016-01-01

    In this age of technology, building quality software is essential to competing in the business market. One of the major principles required for any quality and business software product for value fulfillment is reliability. Estimating software reliability early during the software development life cycle saves time and money as it prevents spending larger sums fixing a defective software product after deployment. The Software Reliability Growth Model (SRGM) can be used to predict the number of...

  19. Plot size recommendations for biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin A. Spetich; George R Parker

    1998-01-01

    The authors examine the relationship between disturbance regime and plot size for woody biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth deciduous forest from 1926 to 1992. Analysis was done on the core 19.6 ac of a 50.1 ac forest in which every tree 4 in. d.b.h. and greater has been tagged and mapped since 1926. Five windows of time are compared—1926, 1976, 1981, 1986...

  20. Revisiting the constant growth angle: Estimation and verification via rigorous thermal modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virozub, Alexander; Rasin, Igal G.; Brandon, Simon

    2008-12-01

    Methods for estimating growth angle ( θgr) values, based on the a posteriori analysis of directionally solidified material (e.g. drops) often involve assumptions of negligible gravitational effects as well as a planar solid/liquid interface during solidification. We relax both of these assumptions when using experimental drop shapes from the literature to estimate the relevant growth angles at the initial stages of solidification. Assumed to be constant, we use these values as input into a rigorous heat transfer and solidification model of the growth process. This model, which is shown to reproduce the experimental shape of a solidified sessile water drop using the literature value of θgr=0∘, yields excellent agreement with experimental profiles using our estimated values for silicon ( θgr=10∘) and germanium ( θgr=14.3∘) solidifying on an isotropic crystalline surface. The effect of gravity on the solidified drop shape is found to be significant in the case of germanium, suggesting that gravity should either be included in the analysis or that care should be taken that the relevant Bond number is truly small enough in each measurement. The planar solidification interface assumption is found to be unjustified. Although this issue is important when simulating the inflection point in the profile of the solidified water drop, there are indications that solidified drop shapes (at least in the case of silicon) may be fairly insensitive to the shape of this interface.

  1. Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poussart, P.; Myneni, S.; Lanzirotti, A.

    2006-01-01

    Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings. Alternative methods exist (dendrometry, radio- and stable isotopes), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within (le)2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible

  2. Linking functional response and bioenergetics to estimate juvenile salmon growth in a reservoir food web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haskell, Craig A.; Beauchamp, David A.; Bollens, Stephen M.

    2017-01-01

    Juvenile salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) use of reservoir food webs is understudied. We examined the feeding behavior of subyearling Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and its relation to growth by estimating the functional response of juvenile salmon to changes in the density of Daphnia, an important component of reservoir food webs. We then estimated salmon growth across a broad range of water temperatures and daily rations of two primary prey, Daphnia and juvenile American shad (Alosa sapidissima) using a bioenergetics model. Laboratory feeding experiments yielded a Type-II functional response curve: C = 29.858 P *(4.271 + P)-1 indicating that salmon consumption (C) of Daphnia was not affected until Daphnia densities (P) were < 30 · L-1. Past field studies documented Daphnia densities in lower Columbia River reservoirs of < 3 · L-1 in July but as high as 40 · L-1 in August. Bioenergetics modeling indicated that subyearlings could not achieve positive growth above 22°C regardless of prey type or consumption rate. When feeding on Daphnia, subyearlings could not achieve positive growth above 20°C (water temperatures they commonly encounter in the lower Columbia River during summer). At 16–18°C, subyearlings had to consume about 27,000 Daphnia · day-1 to achieve positive growth. However, when feeding on juvenile American shad, subyearlings had to consume 20 shad · day-1 at 16–18°C, or at least 25 shad · day-1 at 20°C to achieve positive growth. Using empirical consumption rates and water temperatures from summer 2013, subyearlings exhibited negative growth during July (-0.23 to -0.29 g · d-1) and August (-0.05 to -0.07 g · d-1). By switching prey from Daphnia to juvenile shad which have a higher energy density, subyearlings can partially compensate for the effects of higher water temperatures they experience in the lower Columbia River during summer. However, achieving positive growth as piscivores requires subyearlings to feed at

  3. [Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates in a population from Zaragoza by using different growth references].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasarte-Velillas, J J; Hernández-Aguilar, M T; Martínez-Boyero, T; Soria-Cabeza, G; Soria-Ruiz, D; Bastarós-García, J C; Gil-Hernández, I; Pastor-Arilla, C; Lasarte-Sanz, I

    2015-03-01

    To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity among our pediatric population and observe whether the use of different growth references for classification produce significant differences. A total of 35824 boys and girls aged between 2 and 14 years were included. Body mass index (BMI) was used to calculate the prevalence of overweight-obesity by age and sex. Prevalence was obtained by using a set of national references (Hernández's standards) and the references of World Health Organization (WHO standards). Prevalences were compared for each age and sex subset, as well as with the percentage of patients who had an overweight-obesity diagnosis in the clinical record. The overall prevalence of overweight-obesity among children aged 2 to 14 years was 17.0% (95% CI; 16.1%-18.0%) according to the Hernández standards vs 30.8% (95% CI; 29.9%-31.7%) according to WHO standards (10.1% vs 12.2% obese, and 6.9% vs 18.6% overweight). It was significantly higher in boys, by both standards, due to the higher prevalence of obesity. By using the Hernández standards the prevalence was significantly lower than by using WHO standards for all ages and for both sexes. A low percentage of patients were found to have an obesity-overweight diagnosis in the clinical record (from 3% to 22% at the ages of 2 and 14 years, respectively). The prevalence of overweight-obesity in our population is high, especially among boys. Using Hernández standards leads to an under-estimation of the problem, especially because it detects less overweight patients, thus we recommend using the WHO standards in our daily practice. The low number of overweight-obesity diagnoses in the clinical records might reflect that there is little awareness of the problem by the professionals. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  4. Targeted technology applications for infield reserve growth: A synopsis of the Secondary Natural Gas Recovery project, Gulf Coast Basin. Topical report, September 1988--April 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levey, R.A.; Finley, R.J.; Hardage, B.A.

    1994-06-01

    The Secondary Natural Gas Recovery (SGR): Targeted Technology Applications for Infield Reserve Growth is a joint venture research project sponsored by the Gas Research Institute (GRI), the US Department of Energy (DOE), the State of Texas through the Bureau of Economic Geology at The University of Texas at Austin, with the cofunding and cooperation of the natural gas industry. The SGR project is a field-based program using an integrated multidisciplinary approach that integrates geology, geophysics, engineering, and petrophysics. A major objective of this research project is to develop, test, and verify those technologies and methodologies that have near- to mid-term potential for maximizing recovery of gas from conventional reservoirs in known fields. Natural gas reservoirs in the Gulf Coast Basin are targeted as data-rich, field-based models for evaluating infield development. The SGR research program focuses on sandstone-dominated reservoirs in fluvial-deltaic plays within the onshore Gulf Coast Basin of Texas. The primary project research objectives are: To establish how depositional and diagenetic heterogeneities cause, even in reservoirs of conventional permeability, reservoir compartmentalization and hence incomplete recovery of natural gas. To document examples of reserve growth occurrence and potential from fluvial and deltaic sandstones of the Texas Gulf Coast Basin as a natural laboratory for developing concepts and testing applications. To demonstrate how the integration of geology, reservoir engineering, geophysics, and well log analysis/petrophysics leads to strategic recompletion and well placement opportunities for reserve growth in mature fields.

  5. The Growth Points of Regional Economy and Regression Estimation for Branch Investment Multipliers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Pavlovna Goridko

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops the methodology of using investment multipliers to identify growth points for a regional economy. The paper discusses various options for the assessment of multiplicative effects caused by investments in certain sectors of the economy. All calculations are carried out on the example of economy of the Republic of Tatarstan for the period 2005–2015. The instrument of regression modeling using the method of least squares, permits to estimate sectoral and cross-sectoral investment multipliers in the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. Moreover, this method allows to assess the elasticity of gross output of regional economy and its individual sectors depending on investment in various sectors of the economy. Calculations results allowed to identify three growth points of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan. They are mining industry, manufacturing industry and construction. The success of a particular industry or sub-industry in a country or a region should be measured not only by its share in macro-system’s gross output or value added, but also by the multiplicative effect that investments in the industry have on the development of other industries, on employment and on general national or regional product. In recent years, the growth of the Russian was close to zero. Thus, it is crucial to understand the structural consequences of the increasing investments in various sectors of the Russian economy. In this regard, the problems solved in the article are relevant for a number of countries and regions with a similar economic situation. The obtained results can be applied for similar estimations of investment multipliers as well as multipliers of government spending, and other components of aggregate demand in various countries and regions to identify growth points. Investments in these growth points will induce the greatest and the most evident increment of the outcome from the macro-system’s economic activities.

  6. Estimating the Relationship between Economic Growth and Health Expenditures in ECO Countries Using Panel Cointegration Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nahid Hatam

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Increasing knowledge of people about health leads to raising the share of health expenditures in government budget continuously; although governors do not like this rise because of budget limitations. This study aimed to find the association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. We added health capital in Solow model and used the panel cointegration approach to show the importance of health expenditures in economic growth. For estimating the model, first we used Pesaran cross-sectional dependency test, after that we used Pesaran CADF unit root test, and then we used Westerlund panel cointegration test to show if there is a long-term association between variables or not. After that, we used chaw test, Breusch-Pagan test and Hausman test to find the form of the model. Finally, we used OLS estimator for panel data. Findings showed that there is a positive, strong association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. If governments increase investing in health, the total production of the country will be increased, so health expenditures are considered as an investing good. The effects of health expenditures in developing countries must be higher than those in developed countries. Such studies can help policy makers to make long-term decisions.

  7. Estimating the Relationship between Economic Growth and Health Expenditures in ECO Countries Using Panel Cointegration Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatam, Nahid; Tourani, Sogand; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah; Bastani, Peivand

    2016-02-01

    Increasing knowledge of people about health leads to raising the share of health expenditures in government budget continuously; although governors do not like this rise because of budget limitations. This study aimed to find the association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. We added health capital in Solow model and used the panel cointegration approach to show the importance of health expenditures in economic growth. For estimating the model, first we used Pesaran cross-sectional dependency test, after that we used Pesaran CADF unit root test, and then we used Westerlund panel cointegration test to show if there is a long-term association between variables or not. After that, we used chaw test, Breusch-Pagan test and Hausman test to find the form of the model. Finally, we used OLS estimator for panel data. Findings showed that there is a positive, strong association between health expenditures and economic growth in ECO countries. If governments increase investing in health, the total production of the country will be increased, so health expenditures are considered as an investing good. The effects of health expenditures in developing countries must be higher than those in developed countries. Such studies can help policy makers to make long-term decisions.

  8. Comparison of Two Mechanistic Microbial Growth Models to Estimate Shelf Life of Perishable Food Package under Dynamic Temperature Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Sun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Two mechanistic microbial growth models (Huang’s model and model of Baranyi and Roberts given in differential and integrated equation forms were compared in predicting the microbial growth and shelf life under dynamic temperature storage and distribution conditions. Literatures consistently reporting the microbial growth data under constant and changing temperature conditions were selected to obtain the primary model parameters, set up the secondary models, and apply them to predict the microbial growth and shelf life under fluctuating temperatures. When evaluated by general estimation behavior, bias factor, accuracy factor, and root-mean-square error, Huang’s model was comparable to Baranyi and Roberts’ model in the capability to estimate microbial growth under dynamic temperature conditions. Its simple form of single differential equation incorporating directly the growth rate and lag time may work as an advantage to be used in online shelf life estimation by using the electronic device.

  9. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  10. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

    2008-08-28

    Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

  11. Influence of the Budgetary Decentralization on the Economic Growth of Regions of Ukraine: Statistical Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voznyak Halyna V.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to define, determine and analyze the interrelationships between the budgetary decentralization and the economic growth of regions of Ukraine under conditions of reforming the power and financial resources. A statistical estimation of the influence of the budgetary decentralization on the economic growth of regions of Ukraine for 2015-2016 is carried out. The application of the panel data modeling allowed to build econometric models that made it possible to determine the ambiguous nature of the budgetary decentralization and identify key factors of its influence. It is shown that in terms of the income and expenditures the budgetary decentralization is positively associated with the economic growth of regions of Ukraine during the chosen time range of the study. The dynamic growth of the own revenues of local budgets is not a catalyst for the economic development of the regions. A strong negative effect of transfers on the dependent variable is confirmed. Among the variables included in the model and additionally characterizing the budgetary decentralization, the single tax and subsidies for the socio-economic development of individual territories attract attention. As a result of the study, the author justifies the need to minimize the transfer dependence of the regions at a simultaneous increasing of their own revenue base with local taxes and fees serving as a reliable basis for a long-term planning and development.

  12. Microbial uptake of radiolabeled substrates: estimates of growth rates from time course measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, W.K.W.

    1984-01-01

    The uptake of [ 3 H]glucose and a mixture of 3 H-labeled amino acids was measured, in time course fashion, in planktonic microbial assemblages of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The average generation times of those portions of the assemblages able to utilize these substrates were estimated from a simple exponential growth model. Other workers have independently used this model in its integrated or differential form. A mathematical verification and an experimental demonstration of the equivalence of the two approaches are presented. A study was made of the size distribution of heterotrophic activity, using time course measurements. It was found that the size distribution and the effect of sample filtration before radiolabeling were dependent on time of incubation. In principle, it was possible to ascribe these time dependences to differences in th specific growth rate and initial standing stock of the microbial assemblages. 33 references

  13. Lithium reserves and resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R.K.

    1978-01-01

    As a result of accelerating research efforts in the fields of secondary batteries and thermonuclear power generation, concern has been expressed in certain quarters regarding the availability, in sufficient quantities, of lithium. As part of a recent study by the National Research Council on behalf of the Energy Research and Development Administration, a subpanel was formed to consider the outlook for lithium. Principal areas of concern were reserves, resources and the 'surplus' available for energy applications after allowing for the growth in current lithium applications. Reserves and resources were categorized into four classes ranging from fully proved reserves to resources which are probably dependent upon the marketing of co-products to become economically attractive. Because of the proprietary nature of data on beneficiation and processing recoveries, the tonnages of available lithium are expressed in terms of plant feed. However, highly conservative assumptions have been made concerning mining recoveries and these go a considerable way to accounting for total losses. Western World reserves and resources of all classes are estimated at 10.6 million tonnes Li of which 3.5 million tonnes Li are located in the United States. Current United States capacity, virtually equivalent to Western World capacity, is 4700 tonnes Li and production in 1976 approximated to 3500 tonnes Li. Production for current applications is expected to grow to approx. 10,000 tonnes in year 2000 and 13,000 tonnes a decade later. The massive excess of reserves and resources over that necessary to support conventional requirements has limited the amount of justifiable exploration expenditures; on the last occasion, there was a a major increase in demand (by the USAEA) reserves and capacity were increased rapidly. There are no foreseeable reasons why this shouldn't happen again when the need is clear. (author)

  14. Restoration of Degraded Soil in the Nanmangalam Reserve Forest with Native Tree Species: Effect of Indigenous Plant Growth-Promoting Bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Andimuthu; Radhapriya, Parthasarathy

    Restoration of a highly degraded forest, which had lost its natural capacity for regeneration, was attempted in the Nanmangalam Reserve Forest in Eastern Ghats of India. In field experiment, 12 native tree species were planted. The restoration included inoculation with a consortium of 5 native plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB), with the addition of small amounts of compost and a chemical fertilizer (NPK). The experimental fields were maintained for 1080 days. The growth and biomass varied depending on the plant species. All native plants responded well to the supplementation with the native PGPB. The plants such as Pongamia pinnata, Tamarindus indica, Gmelina arborea, Wrightia tinctoria, Syzygium cumini, Albizia lebbeck, Terminalia bellirica, and Azadirachta indica performed well in the native soil. This study demonstrated, by using native trees and PGPB, a possibility to restore the degraded forest.

  15. Restoration of Degraded Soil in the Nanmangalam Reserve Forest with Native Tree Species: Effect of Indigenous Plant Growth-Promoting Bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andimuthu Ramachandran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Restoration of a highly degraded forest, which had lost its natural capacity for regeneration, was attempted in the Nanmangalam Reserve Forest in Eastern Ghats of India. In field experiment, 12 native tree species were planted. The restoration included inoculation with a consortium of 5 native plant growth-promoting bacteria (PGPB, with the addition of small amounts of compost and a chemical fertilizer (NPK. The experimental fields were maintained for 1080 days. The growth and biomass varied depending on the plant species. All native plants responded well to the supplementation with the native PGPB. The plants such as Pongamia pinnata, Tamarindus indica, Gmelina arborea, Wrightia tinctoria, Syzygium cumini, Albizia lebbeck, Terminalia bellirica, and Azadirachta indica performed well in the native soil. This study demonstrated, by using native trees and PGPB, a possibility to restore the degraded forest.

  16. Long-term effect of carbohydrate reserves on growth and reproduction of Prosopis denudans (Fabaceae): implications for conservation of woody perennials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela, Alejandra E.; Agüero, Paola R.; Ravetta, Damián; González-Paleo, Luciana

    2016-01-01

    Prosopis denudans, an extreme xerophyte shrub, is consumed by ungulates and threatened by firewood gathering, because it is one of the preferred species used by Mapuche indigenous people of Patagonia. In a scenario of uncontrolled use of vegetation, it is very difficult to develop a conservation plan that jointly protects natural resources and its users. We performed a field experiment to assess the impact of defoliation on growth, reproduction and stores of a wild population of P. denudans. We imposed four levels of defoliation (removal of 100, 66, 33 and 0% of leaves) and evaluated the short- and long-term (3 years) effects of this disturbance. Seasonal changes in shoot carbohydrates suggested that they support leaf-flush and blooming. Severely defoliated individuals also used root reserves to support growth and leaf-flush after clipping. Vegetative growth was not affected by defoliation history. Leaf mass area increased after the initial clipping, suggesting the development of structural defenses. The depletion of root reserves at the end of the first year affected inflorescence production the following spring. We conclude that P. denudans shrubs could lose up to one-third of their green tissues without affecting growth or inflorescence production. The removal of a higher proportion of leaves will diminish stores, which in turn, will reduce or completely prevent blooming and, therefore, fruit production the following seasons. Very few studies integrate conservation and plant physiology, and we are not aware, so far, of any work dealing with long-term plant carbon economy of a long-lived perennial shrub as an applied tool in conservation. These results might help the development of management strategies that consider both the use and the conservation of wild populations of P. denudans. PMID:27293747

  17. Reproduction and growth of the painted comber Serranus scriba (Serranidae) of the Marine Reserve of Lanzarote Island (Central-Eastern Atlantic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, V. M.; García-Díaz, M. M.; González, J. A.; Lorente, M. J.; Lozano, I. J.

    2005-08-01

    The population biology of painted comber Serranus scriba (Linnaeus, 1758) of the Canary Islands coast was studied to estimate gonad morphology, sexuality, age and growth. Analysis of gonad organization and development revealed that it is a functional simultaneous hermaphrodite. Its anatomy and growth pattern of the reproductive cells is similar to that described in other species of the genus Serranus, although the sequence of vesicles appearing varies during vitellogenesis. Spawning season occurred from January to September with a peak in June. Individuals reached 50% maturity at 17.3 cm TL and 95% at 22.7 cm TL. Length-weight relationship was described by the following parameters: a = 0.01 and b = 3.10, being allometric positive. Age was determined from annuli in whole forming an opaque zone and a translucent zone in each annulus per year. The high percentage of otoliths with translucent zone during the annual cycle indicated that this species presents continuous growth throughout the year. Age range was 2-11 years for fish measuring 15.0-29.4 cm TL. This species is slow-growing and long lived. The growth parameters obtained were L∞ = 34.18 cm TL, k = 0.13 years -1, and to = -2.50 years. Otolith length was the best predictor of fish length, while the otolith weight was the best predictor of age.

  18. Effect of Estimated Daily Global Solar Radiation Data on the Results of Crop Growth Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herbert Formayer

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The results of previous studies have suggested that estimated daily globalradiation (RG values contain an error that could compromise the precision of subsequentcrop model applications. The following study presents a detailed site and spatial analysis ofthe RG error propagation in CERES and WOFOST crop growth models in Central Europeanclimate conditions. The research was conducted i at the eight individual sites in Austria andthe Czech Republic where measured daily RG values were available as a reference, withseven methods for RG estimation being tested, and ii for the agricultural areas of the CzechRepublic using daily data from 52 weather stations, with five RG estimation methods. In thelatter case the RG values estimated from the hours of sunshine using the ångström-Prescottformula were used as the standard method because of the lack of measured RG data. At thesite level we found that even the use of methods based on hours of sunshine, which showedthe lowest bias in RG estimates, led to a significant distortion of the key crop model outputs.When the ångström-Prescott method was used to estimate RG, for example, deviationsgreater than ±10 per cent in winter wheat and spring barley yields were noted in 5 to 6 percent of cases. The precision of the yield estimates and other crop model outputs was lowerwhen RG estimates based on the diurnal temperature range and cloud cover were used (mean bias error 2.0 to 4.1 per cent. The methods for estimating RG from the diurnal temperature range produced a wheat yield bias of more than 25 per cent in 12 to 16 per cent of the seasons. Such uncertainty in the crop model outputs makes the reliability of any seasonal yield forecasts or climate change impact assessments questionable if they are based on this type of data. The spatial assessment of the RG data uncertainty propagation over the winter wheat yields also revealed significant differences within the study area. We

  19. Estimation of time-varying growth, uptake and excretion rates from dynamic metabolomics data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinquemani, Eugenio; Laroute, Valérie; Cocaign-Bousquet, Muriel; de Jong, Hidde; Ropers, Delphine

    2017-07-15

    Technological advances in metabolomics have made it possible to monitor the concentration of extracellular metabolites over time. From these data, it is possible to compute the rates of uptake and excretion of the metabolites by a growing cell population, providing precious information on the functioning of intracellular metabolism. The computation of the rate of these exchange reactions, however, is difficult to achieve in practice for a number of reasons, notably noisy measurements, correlations between the concentration profiles of the different extracellular metabolites, and discontinuties in the profiles due to sudden changes in metabolic regime. We present a method for precisely estimating time-varying uptake and excretion rates from time-series measurements of extracellular metabolite concentrations, specifically addressing all of the above issues. The estimation problem is formulated in a regularized Bayesian framework and solved by a combination of extended Kalman filtering and smoothing. The method is shown to improve upon methods based on spline smoothing of the data. Moreover, when applied to two actual datasets, the method recovers known features of overflow metabolism in Escherichia coli and Lactococcus lactis , and provides evidence for acetate uptake by L. lactis after glucose exhaustion. The results raise interesting perspectives for further work on rate estimation from measurements of intracellular metabolites. The Matlab code for the estimation method is available for download at https://team.inria.fr/ibis/rate-estimation-software/ , together with the datasets. eugenio.cinquemani@inria.fr. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  20. Estimation of Genetic Parameters of Kleiber Ratio and Growth Traits in Kurdish Sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davoud Ali Saghi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Kurdish sheep breed is one of the most important native breeds of Iran. They are fat-tailed, large-sized, well adapted to the mountainous regions in northern Khorasan province and mainly raising for meat production under pastoral production system (28. Feed efficiency is a major component in the profitability of the small ruminant enterprise, because quality of range and pasture is low in poor environmental conditions in Iran. Growth rate and feed efficiency are two traits of great economic importance in sheep production and also Kleiber ratio has been suggested to be a useful indicator for these traits (2. There was no information regarding genetic parameters for growth traits in Kurdish sheep. Thus, the main objective of the present research was to estimate (covariance components and genetic parameters for pre- and post-weaning growth traits and Kleiber ratio in Kurdish sheep. Material and Methods In this study, the records of growth traits from 5144 lambs (from 161 rams and 1982 ewes were used. The data were collected during a 17-year period (1996–2013 in Kurdish sheep Breeding Station located in Shirvan city of northern Khorasan province. Traits investigated were average daily gain from birth to weaning (ADG0-3, average daily gain from weaning to six months of age (ADG3-6, average daily gain from six to nine months of age (ADG6-9, average daily gain from nine to twelve months of age (ADG9-12 and Kleiber ratios (KR defined as: KR1=ADG0-3/(BW30.75 KR2=ADG3-6/(BW60.75 KR3=ADG6-9/(BW90.75 KR4=ADG9-12/(BW120.75 Test of significance for the fixed effects to be included in the final functional model for each trait and calculation of least squares means was accomplished using GLM procedure of SAS software (24. The considered fixed effects were year of lambing (1996-2013, sex of lamb (male and female, type of birth (single and twin and age of ewe (1–7 years old. (Co variance components and genetic parameters were estimated applying

  1. Estimates of genetic and environmental factors on growth and mortality in Karakul lambs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed Akbar Shiri

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Lamb production is the largest part of income in sheep industry. Therefore, the mortality rate of lambs is a key factor in profit of the sheep breeding. Mortality rate of lambs (or Lamb mortality rate in different breeds of sheep under different climatic conditions is varying from 15% to 50% and an average of 9% to 20% has been reported. Survival rate is a combination trait that is influenced by various factors such as management, weather condition, and behavior of dam and lamb, as well as genetic effects. Quantification of non-genetic effects on mortality rate can be useful in controlling lamb survival rate and increasing profitability of sheep breeding. Therefore, identification of genetic and environmental factors affecting the productive capacity of indigenous breeds in different area is the main priority that should be considered in breeding programmes. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate genetic and environmental factors of growth traits and mortality in Karakul lambs. To estimate the genetic and environmental parameters of Karakul lambs before weaning growth and mortality records of 4929 lambs from 207 rams and 1856 ewes at Sarakhs Karakul sheep breeding station, from 1994 to 2009 were used. Materials and Methods The data were used in this study included a total of 4929 record of lamb birth weight, 1 and 3 months of age, average daily gain from birth to weaning (growth traits before weaning and mortality rate of lambs from birth to 1, 2, 4, 8 and 14 weeks (mortality rate of lambs before weaning. Data were collected during the years 1994 to 2010 in karakul breeding station in Sarakhs. The data were edited and pedigree file and data file were prepared. Uni-variate animal model was used to estimate the genetic parameters as following: where is the vector of record, b is the vector of fixed effects (year, sex, type of birth, age of dam, a is the vector of direct additive genetic effects, m the vector of

  2. Estimation of Staphylococcus aureus growth parameters from turbidity data: characterization of strain variation and comparison of methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindqvist, R

    2006-07-01

    Turbidity methods offer possibilities for generating data required for addressing microorganism variability in risk modeling given that the results of these methods correspond to those of viable count methods. The objectives of this study were to identify the best approach for determining growth parameters based on turbidity data and use of a Bioscreen instrument and to characterize variability in growth parameters of 34 Staphylococcus aureus strains of different biotypes isolated from broiler carcasses. Growth parameters were estimated by fitting primary growth models to turbidity growth curves or to detection times of serially diluted cultures either directly or by using an analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. The maximum specific growth rates in chicken broth at 17 degrees C estimated by time to detection methods were in good agreement with viable count estimates, whereas growth models (exponential and Richards) underestimated growth rates. Time to detection methods were selected for strain characterization. The variation of growth parameters among strains was best described by either the logistic or lognormal distribution, but definitive conclusions require a larger data set. The distribution of the physiological state parameter ranged from 0.01 to 0.92 and was not significantly different from a normal distribution. Strain variability was important, and the coefficient of variation of growth parameters was up to six times larger among strains than within strains. It is suggested to apply a time to detection (ANOVA) approach using turbidity measurements for convenient and accurate estimation of growth parameters. The results emphasize the need to consider implications of strain variability for predictive modeling and risk assessment.

  3. Aspartic acid racemization rate in narwhal (Monodon monoceros) eye lens nuclei estimated by counting of growth layers in tusks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garde, Eva; Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter; Ditlevsen, Susanne

    2012-01-01

    Ages of marine mammals have traditionally been estimated by counting dentinal growth layers in teeth. However, this method is difficult to use on narwhals (Monodon monoceros) because of their special tooth structures. Alternative methods are therefore needed. The aspartic acid racemization (AAR......) technique has been used in age estimation studies of cetaceans, including narwhals. The purpose of this study was to estimate a species-specific racemization rate for narwhals by regressing aspartic acid D/L ratios in eye lens nuclei against growth layer groups in tusks (n=9). Two racemization rates were...

  4. Magnetic Waveform Measurements of the PS Injection Kicker KFA45 and Future Emittance Growth Estimates

    CERN Document Server

    Forte, Vincenzo; Ferrero Colomo, Alvaro; CERN. Geneva. ATS Department

    2018-01-01

    In the framework of the LHC Injectors Upgrade (LIU) project [1], this document summarises the beam-based measurement of the magnetic waveform of the PS injection kicker KFA45 [2], from data collected during several Machine Development (MD) sessions in 2016 and 2017. In the first part of the document, the measurement methodology is introduced and the results presented and compared with the specification required for a clean transfer of the bunches coming from the PSB after the upgrade. These measurements represent, to date, the only way to reconstruct the magnetic waveform. In the second part, kicker magnetic waveform PSpice®[3] simulations are compared and tuned to the measurements. Finally the simulated (validated through measurements) waveforms are used to estimate the future expected emittance growth for the different PS injection schemes, both for (LIU target) LHC and fixed target beams.

  5. Estimating the effect of urease inhibitor on rice yield based on NDVI at key growth stages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kailou LIU,Yazhen LI,Huiwen HU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The effect of the urease inhibitor, N-(n-butyl thiophosphoric triamide (NBPT at a range of application rates on rice production was examined in a field experiment at Jinxian County, Jiangxi Province, China. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI was measured at key growth stages in both early and late rice. The results showed that the grain yield increased significantly when urea was applied with NBPT, with the highest yield observed at 1.00% NBPT (wt/wt. NDVI differed with the growth stage of rice; it remained steady from the heading to the filling stage. Rice yield could be predicted from the NDVI taken at key rice growing stages, with R2 ranging from 0.34 to 0.69 in early rice and 0.49 to 0.70 in late rice. The validation test showed that RMSE (t·hm-2 values were 0.77 and 0.87 in early and late rice, respectively. Therefore, it was feasible to estimate rice yield for different amounts of urease inhibitor using NDVI.

  6. Deterministic estimation of crack growth rates in steels in LWR coolant environments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macdonald, D.D.; Lu, P.C.; Urquidi-Macdonald, M.

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, the authors extend the coupled environment fracture model (CEFM) for intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) of sensitized Type 304SS in light water reactor heat transport circuits by incorporating steel corrosion, the oxidation of hydrogen, and the reduction of hydrogen peroxide, in addition to the reduction of oxygen (as in the original CEFM), as charge transfer reactions occurring on the external surfaces. Additionally, the authors have incorporated a theoretical approach for estimating the crack tip strain rate, and the authors have included a void nucleation model to account for ductile failure at very negative potentials. The key concept of the CEFM is that coupling between the internal and external environments, and the need to conserve charge, are the physical and mathematical constraints that determine the rate of crack advance. The model provides rational explanations for the effects of oxygen, hydrogen peroxide, hydrogen, conductivity, stress intensity, and flow velocity on the rate of crack growth in sensitized Type 304 in simulated LWR in-vessel environments. They propose that the CEFM can serve as the basis of a deterministic method for estimating component life times

  7. Secondary natural gas recovery: Targeted applications for infield reserve growth in midcontinent reservoirs, Boonsville Field, Fort Worth Basin, Texas. Topical report, May 1993--June 1995

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hardage, B.A.; Carr, D.L.; Finley, R.J.; Tyler, N.; Lancaster, D.E.; Elphick, R.Y.; Ballard, J.R.

    1995-07-01

    The objectives of this project are to define undrained or incompletely drained reservoir compartments controlled primarily by depositional heterogeneity in a low-accommodation, cratonic Midcontinent depositional setting, and, afterwards, to develop and transfer to producers strategies for infield reserve growth of natural gas. Integrated geologic, geophysical, reservoir engineering, and petrophysical evaluations are described in complex difficult-to-characterize fluvial and deltaic reservoirs in Boonsville (Bend Conglomerate Gas) field, a large, mature gas field located in the Fort Worth Basin of North Texas. The purpose of this project is to demonstrate approaches to overcoming the reservoir complexity, targeting the gas resource, and doing so using state-of-the-art technologies being applied by a large cross section of Midcontinent operators.

  8. Estimation of winter wheat canopy nitrogen density at different growth stages based on Multi-LUT approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhenhai; Li, Na; Li, Zhenhong; Wang, Jianwen; Liu, Chang

    2017-10-01

    Rapid real-time monitoring of wheat nitrogen (N) status is crucial for precision N management during wheat growth. In this study, Multi Lookup Table (Multi-LUT) approach based on the N-PROSAIL model parameters setting at different growth stages was constructed to estimating canopy N density (CND) in winter wheat. The results showed that the estimated CND was in line with with measured CND, with the determination coefficient (R2) and the corresponding root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.80 and 1.16 g m-2, respectively. Time-consuming of one sample estimation was only 6 ms under the test machine with CPU configuration of Intel(R) Core(TM) i5-2430 @2.40GHz quad-core. These results confirmed the potential of using Multi-LUT approach for CND retrieval in winter wheat at different growth stages and under variables climatic conditions.

  9. Social and economic factors of the natural risk growth: estimation of the Russian regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrova, E.

    2003-04-01

    Òhe vulnerability of the population and economy territorial complexes (PETC) to the influence of unfavorable and dangerous natural processes and events is determined not only by the physical parameters of natural hazards in the given region, but also by economic and social peculiarities of the PETC by itself. It depends on economy type, on PETC’s age, structure and dimensions as well as on degree of its participation in the territorial division of labor. PETC would be more vulnerable to the natural hazards impact if its population density, concentration of the industrial capacities (especially of the objects that additionally create the potential danger of the man-caused catastrophes such as nuclear-power stations, chemical enterprises, oil refineries and so on), concentration of transport and other means of communication, the technological complexity, the originality of the objects included in it as well as the originality of PETC by itself would be higher. The PETC with the unfavorable socio-political and ecological situation and underdeveloped management structures are more vulnerable. The estimation of regions by PETC vulnerability degree to the natural hazards were marked out on a base of data about the actual distribution of the natural hazards in Russia and analysis of the economic indices of the Russian Federation subjects. Among the economic indexes the per capita production of Gross Regional Product (GRP), population density, road density, the degree of appraisal depreciation of the fixed assets, the land cultivation degree of the territory, forest share and so on were taken into account. As the analysis showed, the economic and social factors of the natural risk growth are active in the majority of the regions of the Russian Federation. Such a situation demands the increased attention of state and local authorities to this problem for lowering the economic and social constituents of the growth of natural hazards.

  10. The estimation of long-run relationship between Serbian and German economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Ivan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Germany has always had an essential influence on Serbia's economic development. Today, Germany is Europe's economic and political superstar so this is even more pronounced. Hence, the aim of this paper is to explore the fundamental causal relationship between German and Serbian economy. In doing so, after the introductory part, where we emphasized interconnection in terms of investment, foreign trade, employment, new technologies etc., we are extending our study using quarterly 2004q1-2015q2 GDP data of both Serbia and Germany to estimate the Vector Error Correction model (VECM. The results suggest that there is co-integration between Serbia's and Germany's economic growth. The statistically significant negative coefficient on êt-1 indicates that Serbian GDP responds to a temporary disequilibrium between the Germany and Serbia. On the other hand, Germany does not appear to respond to a disequilibrium between the two economies; the t-ratio on êt-1 is statistically insignificant. These results support the idea that economic conditions in Serbia depend on those in Germany incomparably more than conditions in Germany depend on Serbia. Despite a solid long-term impact, there is not short run causality running from GerGDP to SrbGDP.

  11. Geostatistical Approach to Estimating the Gold Ore Characteristics and Gold Reserves: A Case Study Daksa Area, Quang Nam Province, Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luan Truong, Xuan; Luong Le, Van; Quang Truong, Xuan

    2015-04-01

    Daksa gold deposit is the biggest gold deposits in Vietnam. The Daksa geological structure complicated, distributed mainly metamorphosed sedimentary NuiVu formation (PR3-?1nv2). The sulfide gold ore bodies distributed in quartz schist, quartz - biotite related to faut and distribution wing anticline. The gold ore bodies form circuits, network circuits, circuits lenses; fill the cup surface layer of the developing northeast - southwest; is the less than or west longitude north - SE. The results show that, Au and accompanying elements (Ag, Pb and Zn) have correlated pretty closely. All of its consistent with the logarithmic distribution standard, in accordance with the law of distribution of content mineral rare. The structure functions have nugget effect and spherical models with show that Au and accompanying elements special variation are changes. Au contents shown local anisotropy, no clearly anisotropy (K=1,17) and weakly anisotropy (K=1,4). Intensity mineralization of the ore bodies are quite high with demand spherical conversion coefficient ranging from 0.49 to 0.75 and from 0.66 to 0.97 (for other body). With nugget effects, ore bodies shown that it is consistent with mineralization in the ore bodies study, ore erasable, micro vein, infilling fractures in quartz vein. All of variogram presents local anisotropy, indicated gold mineralization at study area has least two-mineralization stages, consistent with the analysis of mineralography samples. By the results of the structure function study, the authors present the system optimization for exploration deposit and used to evaluate gold reserves by Ordinary Kriging. High accuracy of Kriging estimation results are expressed in the minimum Kriging variance, by compare the results calculated by some other methods (such as distance inverse weighting method, ..) and specially compare to the results of a some blocks have been exploited. Key words: Geostat and gold deposits VN. Daksa and gold mineralization. Geostat

  12. Estimation of myocardial blood flow and myocardial flow reserve by 99mTc-sestamibi imaging: comparison with the results of [15O]H2O PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Yoshinori; Noriyasu, Kazuyuki; Kohya, Tetsuro; Kitabatake, Akira; Katoh, Chietsugu; Kuge, Yuji; Furuyama, Hideto; Morita, Koichi; Tamaki, Nagara

    2003-01-01

    We developed a noninvasive method to quantitatively estimate the myocardial blood flow (MBF) index and flow reserve (MFR) using dynamic and static data obtained with technetium-99m sestamibi, and compared the results with MBF and MFR measured by oxygen-15-labeled water ([ 15 O]H 2 O) PET. Twenty patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) and nine normal subjects underwent both 99m Tc-sestamibi and PET studies within 2 weeks. From the anterior view, dynamic data were acquired for 2 min immediately after the injection of 99m Tc-sestamibi, and planar static images were also obtained after 5 min at rest and during ATP stress (0.16 mg kg -1 min -1 for 5 min) on another day. The area under the time-activity curve on the aortic arch (Aorta ACU), myocardial weight with the SPET image (M), and the myocardial count on the planar image for 1 min (C m ) were obtained. The MBF index (MBFI) was calculated as follows: MBFI=C m /Aorta ACU x 100/M. MFR was measured by dividing the MBFI at ATP stress by MBFI at rest. The MBFI measured by 99m Tc-sestamibi was significantly correlated with MBF obtained using [ 15 O]H 2 O PET (MBFI=13.174+11.732 x MBF, r=0.821, P 99m Tc-sestamibi was well correlated with that obtained using [ 15 O]H 2 O PET, with some underestimation (r=0.845, P 99m Tc-sestamibi in patients with CAD was significantly lower than that in normal subjects (CAD: 1.484±0.256 vs normal: 2.127±0.308, P 99m Tc-sestamibi. This may be useful for the quantitative assessment of CAD, especially in those patients with diffuse coronary disease. (orig.)

  13. Estimation of heritability and genetic correlation of body weight gain and growth curve parameters in Korean native chicken

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabuddha Manjula

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective This study estimated the genetic parameters for body weight gain and growth curve parameter traits in Korean native chicken (KNC. Methods A total of 585 F1 chickens were used along with 88 of their F0 birds. Body weights were measured every 2 weeks from hatching to 20 weeks of age to measure weight gain at 2-week intervals. For each individual, a logistic growth curve model was fitted to the longitudinal growth dataset to obtain three growth curve parameters (α, asymptotic final body weight; β, inflection point; and γ, constant scale that was proportional to the overall growth rate. Genetic parameters were estimated based on the linear-mixed model using a restricted maximum likelihood method. Results Heritability estimates of body weight gain traits were low to high (0.057 to 0.458. Heritability estimates for α, β, and γ were 0.211±0.08, 0.249±0.09, and 0.095±0.06, respectively. Both genetic and phenotypic correlations between weight gain traits ranged from −0.527 to 0.993. Genetic and phenotypic correlation between the growth curve parameters and weight gain traits ranged from −0.968 to 0.987. Conclusion Based on the results of this study population, we suggest that the KNC could be used for selective breeding between 6 and 8 weeks of age to enhance the overall genetic improvement of growth traits. After validation of these results in independent studies, these findings will be useful for further optimization of breeding programs for KNC.

  14. CONSEQUENCES OF PROTIST-STIMULATED BACTERIAL PRODUCTION FOR ESTIMATING PROTIST GROWTH EFFICIENCIES

    Science.gov (United States)

    The trophic link between bacteria and bacterivorous protists is a complex interaction that involves feedback of inorganic nutrients and growth substrates that are immediately available for prey growth. These interactions were examined in the laboratory and in incubations of conce...

  15. [3H] Thymidine incorporation to estimate growth rates of anaerobic bacterial strains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winding, A.

    1992-01-01

    The incorporation of [ 3 H] thymidine by axenic cultures of anaerobic bacteria was investigated as a means to measure growth. The three fermentative strains and one of the methanogenic strains tested incorporated [ 3 H] thymidine during growth. It is concluded that the [ 3 H] thymidine incorporation method underestimates bacterial growth in anaerobic environments

  16. Estimation of genetic parameters for growth traits in a breeding program for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, G; Gu, W; Bai, Q L; Wang, B Q

    2013-04-26

    Genetic parameters and breeding values for growth traits were estimated in the first and, currently, the only family selective breeding program for rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in China. Genetic and phenotypic data were collected for growth traits from 75 full-sibling families with a 2-generation pedigree. Genetic parameters and breeding values for growth traits of rainbow trout were estimated using the derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood method. The goodness-of-fit of the models was tested using Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. Genetic parameters and breeding values were estimated using the best-fit model for each trait. The values for heritability estimating body weight and length ranged from 0.20 to 0.45 and from 0.27 to 0.60, respectively, and the heritability of condition factor was 0.34. Our results showed a moderate degree of heritability for growth traits in this breeding program and suggested that the genetic and phenotypic tendency of body length, body weight, and condition factor were similar. Therefore, the selection of phenotypic values based on pedigree information was also suitable in this research population.

  17. Contraceptive failure rates: new estimates from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, H; Darroch, J E; Haas, T; Ranjit, N

    1999-01-01

    Unintended pregnancy remains a major public health concern in the United States. Information on pregnancy rates among contraceptive users is needed to guide medical professionals' recommendations and individuals' choices of contraceptive methods. Data were taken from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) and the 1994-1995 Abortion Patient Survey (APS). Hazards models were used to estimate method-specific contraceptive failure rates during the first six months and during the first year of contraceptive use for all U.S. women. In addition, rates were corrected to take into account the underreporting of induced abortion in the NSFG. Corrected 12-month failure rates were also estimated for subgroups of women by age, union status, poverty level, race or ethnicity, and religion. When contraceptive methods are ranked by effectiveness over the first 12 months of use (corrected for abortion underreporting), the implant and injectables have the lowest failure rates (2-3%), followed by the pill (8%), the diaphragm and the cervical cap (12%), the male condom (14%), periodic abstinence (21%), withdrawal (24%) and spermicides (26%). In general, failure rates are highest among cohabiting and other unmarried women, among those with an annual family income below 200% of the federal poverty level, among black and Hispanic women, among adolescents and among women in their 20s. For example, adolescent women who are not married but are cohabiting experience a failure rate of about 31% in the first year of contraceptive use, while the 12-month failure rate among married women aged 30 and older is only 7%. Black women have a contraceptive failure rate of about 19%, and this rate does not vary by family income; in contrast, overall 12-month rates are lower among Hispanic women (15%) and white women (10%), but vary by income, with poorer women having substantially greater failure rates than more affluent women. Levels of contraceptive failure vary widely by method, as well as by

  18. Bayesian estimation and use of high-throughput remote sensing indices for quantitative genetic analyses of leaf growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Robert L; Leong, Wen Fung; An, Nan; Brock, Marcus T; Rubin, Matthew J; Welch, Stephen; Weinig, Cynthia

    2018-02-01

    We develop Bayesian function-valued trait models that mathematically isolate genetic mechanisms underlying leaf growth trajectories by factoring out genotype-specific differences in photosynthesis. Remote sensing data can be used instead of leaf-level physiological measurements. Characterizing the genetic basis of traits that vary during ontogeny and affect plant performance is a major goal in evolutionary biology and agronomy. Describing genetic programs that specifically regulate morphological traits can be complicated by genotypic differences in physiological traits. We describe the growth trajectories of leaves using novel Bayesian function-valued trait (FVT) modeling approaches in Brassica rapa recombinant inbred lines raised in heterogeneous field settings. While frequentist approaches estimate parameter values by treating each experimental replicate discretely, Bayesian models can utilize information in the global dataset, potentially leading to more robust trait estimation. We illustrate this principle by estimating growth asymptotes in the face of missing data and comparing heritabilities of growth trajectory parameters estimated by Bayesian and frequentist approaches. Using pseudo-Bayes factors, we compare the performance of an initial Bayesian logistic growth model and a model that incorporates carbon assimilation (A max ) as a cofactor, thus statistically accounting for genotypic differences in carbon resources. We further evaluate two remotely sensed spectroradiometric indices, photochemical reflectance (pri2) and MERIS Terrestrial Chlorophyll Index (mtci) as covariates in lieu of A max , because these two indices were genetically correlated with A max across years and treatments yet allow much higher throughput compared to direct leaf-level gas-exchange measurements. For leaf lengths in uncrowded settings, including A max improves model fit over the initial model. The mtci and pri2 indices also outperform direct A max measurements. Of particular

  19. Supersaturation Control using Analytical Crystal Size Distribution Estimator for Temperature Dependent in Nucleation and Crystal Growth Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahari, Zakirah Mohd; Zubaidah Adnan, Siti; Kanthasamy, Ramesh; Saleh, Suriyati; Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Abdul

    2018-03-01

    The specification of the crystal product is usually given in terms of crystal size distribution (CSD). To this end, optimal cooling strategy is necessary to achieve the CSD. The direct design control involving analytical CSD estimator is one of the approaches that can be used to generate the set-point. However, the effects of temperature on the crystal growth rate are neglected in the estimator. Thus, the temperature dependence on the crystal growth rate needs to be considered in order to provide an accurate set-point. The objective of this work is to extend the analytical CSD estimator where Arrhenius expression is employed to cover the effects of temperature on the growth rate. The application of this work is demonstrated through a potassium sulphate crystallisation process. Based on specified target CSD, the extended estimator is capable of generating the required set-point where a proposed controller successfully maintained the operation at the set-point to achieve the target CSD. Comparison with other cooling strategies shows a reduction up to 18.2% of the total number of undesirable crystals generated from secondary nucleation using linear cooling strategy is achieved.

  20. Estimating Potential GDP for the Romanian Economy and Assessing the Sustainability of Economic Growth: A Multivariate Filter Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Armeanu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In the current context of economic recovery and rebalancing, the necessity of modelling and estimating the potential output and output gap emerges in order to assess the quality and sustainability of economic growth, the monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the impact of business cycles. Despite the importance of potential GDP and the output gap, there are difficulties in reliably estimating them, as many of the models proposed in the economic literature are calibrated for developed economies and are based on complex macroeconomic relationships and a long history of robust data, while emerging economies exhibit high volatility. The object of this study is to develop a model in order to estimate the potential GDP and output gap and to assess the sustainability of projected growth using a multivariate filter approach. This trend estimation technique is the newest approach proposed by the economic literature and has gained wide acceptance with researchers and practitioners alike, while also being used by the IMF for Romania. The paper will be structured as follows. We first discuss the theoretical background of the model. The second section focuses on an analysis of the Romanian economy for the 1995–2013 time frame, while also providing a forecast for 2014–2017 and an assessment of the sustainability of Romania’s economic growth. The third section sums up the results and concludes.

  1. Crustal growth of the Izu-Ogasawara arc estimated from structural characteristics of Oligocene arc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, N.; Yamashita, M.; Kodaira, S.; Miura, S.; Sato, T.; No, T.; Tatsumi, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) carried out seismic surveys using a multichannel reflection system and ocean bottom seismographs, and we have clarified crustal structures of whole Izu-Ogasawara (Bonin)-Marina (IBM) arc since 2002. These refection images and velocity structures suggest that the crustal evolution in the intra-oceanic island arc accompanies with much interaction of materials between crust and mantle. Slow mantle velocity identified beneath the thick arc crusts suggests that dense crustal materials transformed into the mantle. On the other hand, high velocity lower crust can be seen around the bottom of the crust beneath the rifted region, and it suggests that underplating of mafic materials occurs there. Average crustal production rate of the entire arc is larger than expected one and approximately 200 km3/km/Ma. The production rate of basaltic magmas corresponds to that of oceanic ridge. Repeated crustal differentiation is indispensable to produce much light materials like continental materials, however, the real process cannot still be resolved yet. We, therefore, submitted drilling proposals to obtain in-situ middle crust with P-wave velocity of 6 km/s. In the growth history of the IBM arc, it is known by many papers that boninitic volcanisms preceded current bimodal volcanisms based on basaltic magmas. The current volcanisms accompanied with basaltic magmas have been occurred since Oligocene age, however, the tectonic differences to develop crustal architecture between Oligocene and present are not understood yet. We obtained new refraction/reflection data along an arc strike of N-S in fore-arc region. Then, we estimate crustal structure with severe change of the crustal thickness from refraction data, which are similar to that along the volcanic front. Interval for location of the thick arc crust along N-S is very similar to that along the volcanic front. The refection image indicates that the basement of the fore

  2. Dry matter yield, chemical composition and estimated extractable protein of legume and grass species during the spring growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Solati, Zeinab; Jørgensen, Uffe; Eriksen, Jørgen

    2017-01-01

    Carbohydrate and Protein System across six harvests during the spring growth. RESULTS The estimated extractable protein [g kg−1 dry matter (DM)] defined as the easily available fractions B1+B2 was significantly higher in white clover and lucerne at all harvests while, if the more cell wall attached fraction B3...... for protein production purpose in a biorefinery due to its high extractable protein content per kg DM. In order to maximise the protein production capacity, harvest should take place during early growth due to a decline in protein extractability with maturity. The final economy of the concept will depend...

  3. The influence of sulfur and hair growth on stable isotope diet estimates for grizzly bears.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garth Mowat

    Full Text Available Stable isotope ratios of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos guard hair collected from bears on the lower Stikine River, British Columbia (BC were analyzed to: 1 test whether measuring δ34S values improved the precision of the salmon (Oncorhynchus spp. diet fraction estimate relative to δ15N as is conventionally done, 2 investigate whether measuring δ34S values improves the separation of diet contributions of moose (Alces alces, marmot (Marmota caligata, and mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus and, 3 examine the relationship between collection date and length of hair and stable isotope values. Variation in isotope signatures among hair samples from the same bear and year were not trivial. The addition of δ34S values to mixing models used to estimate diet fractions generated small improvement in the precision of salmon and terrestrial prey diet fractions. Although the δ34S value for salmon is precise and appears general among species and areas, sulfur ratios were strongly correlated with nitrogen ratios and therefore added little new information to the mixing model regarding the consumption of salmon. Mean δ34S values for the three terrestrial herbivores of interest were similar and imprecise, so these data also added little new information to the mixing model. The addition of sulfur data did confirm that at least some bears in this system ate marmots during summer and fall. We show that there are bears with short hair that assimilate >20% salmon in their diet and bears with longer hair that eat no salmon living within a few kilometers of one another in a coastal ecosystem. Grizzly bears are thought to re-grow hair between June and October however our analysis of sectioned hair suggested at least some hairs begin growing in July or August, not June and, that hair of wild bears may grow faster than observed in captive bears. Our hair samples may have been from the year of sampling or the previous year because samples were collected in summer when

  4. The influence of sulfur and hair growth on stable isotope diet estimates for grizzly bears.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mowat, Garth; Curtis, P Jeff; Lafferty, Diana J R

    2017-01-01

    Stable isotope ratios of grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) guard hair collected from bears on the lower Stikine River, British Columbia (BC) were analyzed to: 1) test whether measuring δ34S values improved the precision of the salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) diet fraction estimate relative to δ15N as is conventionally done, 2) investigate whether measuring δ34S values improves the separation of diet contributions of moose (Alces alces), marmot (Marmota caligata), and mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus) and, 3) examine the relationship between collection date and length of hair and stable isotope values. Variation in isotope signatures among hair samples from the same bear and year were not trivial. The addition of δ34S values to mixing models used to estimate diet fractions generated small improvement in the precision of salmon and terrestrial prey diet fractions. Although the δ34S value for salmon is precise and appears general among species and areas, sulfur ratios were strongly correlated with nitrogen ratios and therefore added little new information to the mixing model regarding the consumption of salmon. Mean δ34S values for the three terrestrial herbivores of interest were similar and imprecise, so these data also added little new information to the mixing model. The addition of sulfur data did confirm that at least some bears in this system ate marmots during summer and fall. We show that there are bears with short hair that assimilate >20% salmon in their diet and bears with longer hair that eat no salmon living within a few kilometers of one another in a coastal ecosystem. Grizzly bears are thought to re-grow hair between June and October however our analysis of sectioned hair suggested at least some hairs begin growing in July or August, not June and, that hair of wild bears may grow faster than observed in captive bears. Our hair samples may have been from the year of sampling or the previous year because samples were collected in summer when bears were

  5. The distal femoral and proximal tibial growth plates: MR imaging, three-dimensional modeling and estimation of area and volume

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craig, Joseph G.; Holsbeeck, Marnix van [Department of Radiology, Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, MI (United States); Cody, Dianna D. [Department of Imaging Physics, University of Texas, M.D. Anderson Hospital, Houston, TX (United States)

    2004-06-01

    To explore how the size of the growth plate changes with age using three-dimensional (3D) models of the distal femoral and proximal tibial growth plates in pediatric patients. We retrospectively created 3D models of the normal unaffected distal femoral (n=20) and proximal tibial (n=10) growth plates in 14 patients (9 males, 5 females) age range 3.8-15.6 years who were referred for evaluation of premature partial closure of the growth plate or hyaline cartilage abnormality. All patients had one or more 3D fat-suppressed spoiled GRASS sequence from which models were made of normal growth plates. Total projected area was estimated from standardized maximum intensity projection (MIP) views, and volume was computed from the entire model. We also included the total projected area of the distal femur (n=7) or proximal tibia (n=8) in 11 patients (8 males, 3 females, 5-13 years) who had previously been evaluated for bone bridging. The 3D femoral and tibial growth plate anatomy was displayed. Femoral growth plate area varied from 804 mm{sup 2} to 3,463 mm{sup 2}. Femoral physeal cartilage volume varied from 2.1 cm{sup 3} to 12.6 cm{sup 3}. Tibial growth plate area varied from 736 mm{sup 2} to 3,026 mm{sup 2}. Tibial physeal cartilage volume varied from 1.9 cm{sup 3} to 13.2 cm{sup 3}. The growth plate area values appear to increase linearly with increasing age. (orig.)

  6. Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    John R. Jones; George A. Schier

    1985-01-01

    This chapter considers aspen growth as a process, and discusses some characteristics of the growth and development of trees and stands. For the most part, factors affecting growth are discussed elsewhere, particularly in the GENETICS AND VARIATION chapter and in chapters in PART 11. ECOLOGY. Aspen growth as it relates to wood production is examined in the WOOD RESOURCE...

  7. Image analysis for the automated estimation of clonal growth and its application to the growth of smooth muscle cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavino, V C; Milo, G E; Cornwell, D G

    1982-03-01

    Image analysis was used for the automated measurement of colony frequency (f) and colony diameter (d) in cultures of smooth muscle cells, Initial studies with the inverted microscope showed that number of cells (N) in a colony varied directly with d: log N = 1.98 log d - 3.469 Image analysis generated the complement of a cumulative distribution for f as a function of d. The number of cells in each segment of the distribution function was calculated by multiplying f and the average N for the segment. These data were displayed as a cumulative distribution function. The total number of colonies (fT) and the total number of cells (NT) were used to calculate the average colony size (NA). Population doublings (PD) were then expressed as log2 NA. Image analysis confirmed previous studies in which colonies were sized and counted with an inverted microscope. Thus, image analysis is a rapid and automated technique for the measurement of clonal growth.

  8. The Estimation of the Cointegration Relationship between the Economic Growth, Investments and Exports. The Romanian Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius-Corneliu Marinas

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to analyze the relationship between exports, investments and economic growth in Romania. For the search of this relationship I use a multivariate autoregressive VAR model. The results of cointegration analysis showed that there is one cointegrated vector among exports, investments and economic growth. Granger causality tests based on error correction models (ECM have indicated that investment and export influences the steady-state level of GDP.

  9. On the growth estimates of entire functions of double complex variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanjib Datta

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recently Datta et al. (2016 introduced the idea of relative type and relative weak type of entire functions of two complex variables with respect to another entire function of two complex variables and prove some related growth properties of it. In this paper, further we study some growth properties of entire functions of two complex variables on the basis of their relative types and relative weak types as introduced by Datta et al (2016.

  10. Application of a Predictive Growth Model of Pseudomonas spp. for Estimating Shelf Life of Fresh Agaricus bisporus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianming; Chen, Junran; Hu, Yunfeng; Hu, Hanyan; Liu, Guohua; Yan, Ruixiang

    2017-10-01

    For prediction of the shelf life of the mushroom Agaricus bisporus, the growth curve of the main spoilage microorganisms was studied under isothermal conditions at 2 to 22°C with a modified Gompertz model. The effect of temperature on the growth parameters for the main spoilage microorganisms was quantified and modeled using the square root model. Pseudomonas spp. were the main microorganisms causing A. bisporus decay, and the modified Gompertz model was useful for modelling the growth curve of Pseudomonas spp. All the bias factors values of the model were close to 1. By combining the modified Gompertz model with the square root model, a prediction model to estimate the shelf life of A. bisporus as a function of storage temperature was developed. The model was validated for A. bisporus stored at 6, 12, and 18°C, and adequate agreement was found between the experimental and predicted data.

  11. Considerations in Forest Growth Estimation Between Two Measurements of Mapped Forest Inventory Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael T. Thompson

    2006-01-01

    Several aspects of the enhanced Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program?s national plot design complicate change estimation. The design incorporates up to three separate plot sizes (microplot, subplot, and macroplot) to sample trees of different sizes. Because multiple plot sizes are involved, change estimators designed for polyareal plot sampling, such as those...

  12. Probability estimate of confirmability of the value of predicted oil and gas reserves of the Chechen-Ingushetiya. Veroyatnostnaya otsenka podtverzhdaemosti velichiny prognoznykh zapasov nefti is gaza Checheno-Ingushetii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merkulov, N.E.; Lysenkov, P.P.

    1981-01-01

    Estimated are the reliable predicted reserves of oil and gas of the Chechen-Ingushetia by methods of probability calculations. Calculations were made separately for each oil-bearing lithologic-stratigraphic horizon. The computation results are summarized in a table, and graphs are constructed.

  13. Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

    2011-01-01

    Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated

  14. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Eduardo Palhares Machado

    Full Text Available The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face-specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio-for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month. The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6-22 years old. The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson's Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices. The method described shows promising potential for forensic

  15. Blockmodeling and the Estimation of Evolutionary Architectural Growth in Major Defense Acquisition Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-30

    attachment probabilities ∑ , 6d. For each interface established in (6c), assign complexity ( wiX ), Connection Option B 6a. Attach X to subsystems...using attachment probabilities ∑ , 6b. For each interface established in (6a), assign complexity ( wiX ), Cost Estimation 7. Estimate the cost for...Connection Option A does not condition interface complexities based on the connected subsystems’ positions of assignment (i.e., wiX ,l), as any

  16. Application of artificial neural network with extreme learning machine for economic growth estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milačić, Ljubiša; Jović, Srđan; Vujović, Tanja; Miljković, Jovica

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to develop and apply the artificial neural network (ANN) with extreme learning machine (ELM) to forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate. The economic growth forecasting was analyzed based on agriculture, manufacturing, industry and services value added in GDP. The results were compared with ANN with back propagation (BP) learning approach since BP could be considered as conventional learning methodology. The reliability of the computational models was accessed based on simulation results and using several statistical indicators. Based on results, it was shown that ANN with ELM learning methodology can be applied effectively in applications of GDP forecasting.

  17. Estimating the number of cases of podoconiosis in Ethiopia using geostatistical methods [version 2; referees: 3 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kebede Deribe

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: In 2011, the World Health Organization recognized podoconiosis as one of the neglected tropical diseases. Nonetheless, the  magnitude of podoconiosis and the geographical distribution of the disease is poorly understood. Based on a nationwide mapping survey and geostatistical modelling, we predict the prevalence of podoconiosis and estimate the number of cases across Ethiopia. Methods: We used nationwide data collected in Ethiopia between 2008 and 2013. Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations. We developed a geostatistical model of podoconiosis prevalence among adults (individuals aged 15 years or above, by combining environmental factors. The number of people with podoconiosis was then estimated using a gridded map of adult population density for 2015. Results: Podoconiosis is endemic in 345 districts in Ethiopia: 144 in Oromia, 128 in Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s [SNNP], 64 in Amhara, 4 in Benishangul Gumuz, 4 in Tigray and 1 in Somali Regional State. Nationally, our estimates suggest that 1,537,963 adults (95% confidence intervals, 290,923-4,577,031 adults were living with podoconiosis in 2015. Three regions (SNNP, Oromia and Amhara contributed 99% of the cases. The highest proportion of individuals with podoconiosis resided in the SNNP (39%, while 32% and 29% of people with podoconiosis resided in Oromia and Amhara Regional States, respectively. Tigray and Benishangul Gumuz Regional States bore lower burdens, and in the remaining regions, podoconiosis was almost non-existent.  Conclusions: The estimates of podoconiosis cases presented here based upon the combination of currently available epidemiological data and a robust modelling approach clearly show that podoconiosis is highly endemic in Ethiopia. Given the presence of low cost prevention, and morbidity management and disability prevention services, it is

  18. A longitudinal study of interethnic contacts in Germany: estimates from a multilevel growth curve model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martinovic, B.; van Tubergen, F.; Maas, I.

    2015-01-01

    Interethnic ties are considered important for the cohesion in society. Previous research has studied the determinants of interethnic ties with cross-sectional data or lagged panel designs. This study improves on prior research by applying multilevel growth curve modelling techniques with lagged

  19. A longitudinal study of interethnic contacts in Germany : Estimates from a multilevel growth curve model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martinovic, Borja|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304822752; van Tubergen, Frank|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/271429534; Maas, Ineke|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/075229390

    2015-01-01

    Interethnic ties are considered important for the cohesion in society. Previous research has studied the determinants of interethnic ties with cross-sectional data or lagged panel designs. This study improves on prior research by applying multilevel growth curve modelling techniques with lagged

  20. Revisiting a model of ontogenetic growth: estimating model parameters from theory and data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moses, Melanie E; Hou, Chen; Woodruff, William H; West, Geoffrey B; Nekola, Jeffery C; Zuo, Wenyun; Brown, James H

    2008-05-01

    The ontogenetic growth model (OGM) of West et al. provides a general description of how metabolic energy is allocated between production of new biomass and maintenance of existing biomass during ontogeny. Here, we reexamine the OGM, make some minor modifications and corrections, and further evaluate its ability to account for empirical variation on rates of metabolism and biomass in vertebrates both during ontogeny and across species of varying adult body size. We show that the updated version of the model is internally consistent and is consistent with other predictions of metabolic scaling theory and empirical data. The OGM predicts not only the near universal sigmoidal form of growth curves but also the M(1/4) scaling of the characteristic times of ontogenetic stages in addition to the curvilinear decline in growth efficiency described by Brody. Additionally, the OGM relates the M(3/4) scaling across adults of different species to the scaling of metabolic rate across ontogeny within species. In providing a simple, quantitative description of how energy is allocated to growth, the OGM calls attention to unexplained variation, unanswered questions, and opportunities for future research.

  1. Inventory implications of using sampling variances in estimation of growth model coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albert R. Stage; William R. Wykoff

    2000-01-01

    Variables based on stand densities or stocking have sampling errors that depend on the relation of tree size to plot size and on the spatial structure of the population, ignoring the sampling errors of such variables, which include most measures of competition used in both distance-dependent and distance-independent growth models, can bias the predictions obtained from...

  2. Estimation of heritability and genetic gain in height growth in Ceiba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    However, there is relatively inefficient information available on the heritability and genetic gain in height growth in C. pentandra based on which selection and subsequent breeding could be made. This poses a major challenge to the production of new cultivars for the forestry industry of Ghana. The current study looked at ...

  3. A Panel Estimation of the Relationship Between Trade Liberalization, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in BRICS Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehrara Mohsen

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the last few years, several studies have found an inverted-U relationship between per capita income and environmental degradation. This relationship, known as the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC, suggests that environmental degradation increases in the early stages of growth, but it eventually decreases as income exceeds a threshold level. However, this paper investigation relationship between per capita CO2 emission, growth economics and trade liberalization based on econometric techniques of unit root test, co-integration and a panel data set during the period 1960-1996 for BRICS countries. Data properties were analyzed to determine their stationarity using the LLC , IPS , ADF and PP unit root tests which indicated that the series are I(1. We find a cointegration relationship between per capita CO2 emission, growth economics and trade liberalization by applying Kao panel cointegration test. The evidence indi\tcates that in the long-run trade liberalization has a positive significant impact on CO2 emissions and impact of trade liberalization on emissions growth depends on the level of income Our findings suggest that there is a quadratic relationship between relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions for the region as a whole. The estimated long-run coefficients of real GDP and its square satisfy the EKC hypothesis in all of studied countries. Our estimation shows that the inflection point or optimal point real GDP per capita is about 5269.4 dollars. The results show that on average, sample countries are on the positive side of the inverted U curve. The turning points are very low in some cases and very high in other cases, hence providing poor evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis. Thus, our findings suggest that all BRICS countries need to sacrifice economic growth to decrease their emission levels

  4. Race/ethnic disparities in reproductive age: an examination of ovarian reserve estimates across four race/ethnic groups of healthy, regularly cycling women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleil, Maria E; Gregorich, Steven E; Adler, Nancy E; Sternfeld, Barbara; Rosen, Mitchell P; Cedars, Marcelle I

    2014-01-01

    To determine whether reproductive age, as indexed by a validated marker of ovarian reserve (antimüllerian hormone [AMH]), varies among women of different race/ethnic backgrounds. Cross-sectional study. Community-based sample. Multiethnic sample of 947 (277 white, 237 African American, 220 Latina, and 213 Chinese) healthy and regularly cycling premenopausal women, ages 25-45. None. AMH level. A multivariate model was fit examining race/ethnicity, covariates, nonlinear terms for age (age(2), age(3)), and body mass index (BMI(2), BMI(3)), and two-way interactions between race/ethnicity and each of the other predictor variables in relation to AMH. After backward elimination, significant effects included race/ethnicity (F = 8.45), age (F = 349.94), race/ethnicity-by-linear age interaction (F = 4.67), age(2) (F = 31.61), and BMI (F = 10.69). Inspection of the significant race/ethnicity-by-linear age interaction showed AMH levels were consistently lower among Latina women compared with white women across all ages, whereas AMH levels were lower among African American and Chinese women compared with the white women at younger and middle ages, respectively. The AMH levels were higher among African American compared with Latina and Chinese women at older ages. Although the results must be considered preliminary, the findings are twofold: African American women may have lower AMH levels at younger ages but experience less of a reduction in AMH with advancing age, and Latina and Chinese women compared with white women may have lower AMH levels, marking a lower ovarian reserve and a possibly increased risk for earlier menopause. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Brain reserve and cognitive reserve protect against cognitive decline over 4.5 years in MS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumowski, James F; Rocca, Maria A; Leavitt, Victoria M; Dackovic, Jelena; Mesaros, Sarlota; Drulovic, Jelena; DeLuca, John; Filippi, Massimo

    2014-05-20

    Based on the theories of brain reserve and cognitive reserve, we investigated whether larger maximal lifetime brain growth (MLBG) and/or greater lifetime intellectual enrichment protect against cognitive decline over time. Forty patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) underwent baseline and 4.5-year follow-up evaluations of cognitive efficiency (Symbol Digit Modalities Test, Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task) and memory (Selective Reminding Test, Spatial Recall Test). Baseline and follow-up MRIs quantified disease progression: percentage brain volume change (cerebral atrophy), percentage change in T2 lesion volume. MLBG (brain reserve) was estimated with intracranial volume; intellectual enrichment (cognitive reserve) was estimated with vocabulary. We performed repeated-measures analyses of covariance to investigate whether larger MLBG and/or greater intellectual enrichment moderate/attenuate cognitive decline over time, controlling for disease progression. Patients with MS declined in cognitive efficiency and memory (p improve prediction of future cognitive decline in patients with MS. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

  6. A new approach for the analysis of facial growth and age estimation: Iris ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, Carlos Eduardo Palhares; Flores, Marta Regina Pinheiro; Lima, Laíse Nascimento Correia; Tinoco, Rachel Lima Ribeiro; Bezerra, Ana Cristina Barreto; Evison, Martin Paul; Guimarães, Marco Aurélio

    2017-01-01

    The study of facial growth is explored in many fields of science, including anatomy, genetics, and forensics. In the field of forensics, it acts as a valuable tool for combating child pornography. The present research proposes a new method, based on relative measurements and fixed references of the human face—specifically considering measurements of the diameter of the iris (iris ratio)—for the analysis of facial growth in association with age in children and sub-adults. The experimental sample consisted of digital photographs of 1000 Brazilian subjects, aged between 6 and 22 years, distributed equally by sex and divided into five specific age groups (6, 10, 14, 18, and 22 year olds ± one month). The software package SAFF-2D® (Forensic Facial Analysis System, Brazilian Federal Police, Brazil) was used for positioning 11 landmarks on the images. Ten measurements were calculated and used as fixed references to evaluate the growth of the other measurements for each age group, as well the accumulated growth (6–22 years old). The Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) was applied for the evaluation of intra-examiner and inter-examiner reliability within a specific set of images. Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient was used to assess the association between each measurement taken and the respective age groups. ANOVA and Post-hoc Tukey tests were used to search for statistical differences between the age groups. The outcomes indicated that facial structures grow with different timing in children and adolescents. Moreover, the growth allometry expressed in this study may be used to understand what structures have more or less proportional variation in function for the age ranges studied. The diameter of the iris was found to be the most stable measurement compared to the others and represented the best cephalometric measurement as a fixed reference for facial growth ratios (or indices). The method described shows promising potential for forensic applications

  7. Estimation of metal uptake in plant parts of roadside grown maize at selected growth stages

    OpenAIRE

    Anongo, M'ember C.; Uyovbisere, Edward O.; Ekong, Nsima J.

    2015-01-01

    Health risk assessment of heavy metals in roadside grown foodcrops consumed by humans is a very good technique because such assessment would provide information about any threat regarding heavy metal contamination. Plant and corresponding soil samples were collected for trace metal analysis to ascertain potential health risks. The non-significant differences of lead (Pb) and cadmium (Cd) levels among the selected growth stages shows that the levels of Pb and Cd in the foodcrops were not influ...

  8. Money demand in general equilibrium endogenous growth: Estimating the role of a variable interest elasticity

    OpenAIRE

    Gillman, Max; Otto, Glen

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents and tests a theory of the demand for money that is derived from a general equilibrium, endogenous growth economy, which in effect combines a special case of the shopping time exchange economy with the cash-in-advance framework. The model predicts that both higher inflation and financial innovation - that reduces the cost of credit - induce agents to substitute away from money towards exchange credit. The implied interest elasticity of money demand rises with the inflation r...

  9. Age estimation, growth rate and size at sexual maturity of tigerfish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A total of 206 tigerfish Hydrocynus vittatus, collected by angling in August 2005, 2006 and 2007, was assessed for sexual maturity and relative ages were estimated from 135 of these, using scales and whole and sectioned otoliths. Sectioned otoliths were the most appropriate method for ageing H. vittatus of up to 20 years ...

  10. Estimating water use of mature pecan orchards: A six stage crop growth curve approach

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ibraimo, NA

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available previous study in New Mexico, revealed that a six stage crop coefficient curve should be considered for pecans, together with higher mid-season crop coefficient (K(subc)) values for mature orchards. More accurate estimates of monthly ET for mature pecan...

  11. Validity of the tritiated thymidine method for estimating bacterial growth rates: measurement of isotope dilution during DNA synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollard, P.C.; Moriarty, D.J.W.

    1984-01-01

    The rate of tritiated thymidine incorporation into DNA was used to estimate bacterial growth rates in aquatic environments. To be accurate, the calculation of growth rates has to include a factor for the dilution of isotope before incorporation. The validity of an isotope dilution analysis to determine this factor was verified in experiments reported here with cultures of a marine bacterium growing in a chemostat. Growth rates calculated from data on chemostat dilution rates and cell density agreed well with rates calculated by tritiated thymidine incorporation into DNA and isotope dilution analysis. With sufficiently high concentrations of exogenous thymidine, de novo synthesis of deoxythymidine monophosphate was inhibited, thereby preventing the endogenous dilution of isoope. The thymidine technique was also shown to be useful for measuring growth rates of mixed suspensions of bacteria growing anaerobically. Thymidine was incorporated into the DNA of a range of marine pseudomonads that were investigated. Three species did not take up thymidine. The common marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus species did not incorporate thymidine into DNA

  12. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this Box – Jenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  13. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this Box – Jenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  14. Radiation absorbed-dose estimates for the liver, spleen, and metaphyseal growth complexes in children undergoing gallium-67 citrate scanning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, S.R.; Gelfand, M.J.; Burns, G.S.; Purdom, R.C.; Kereiakes, J.G.; Maxon, H.R.

    1983-01-01

    Quantitative conjugate-view external counting techniques were applied to estimate the radiation dose to the liver, spleen, and metaphyseal growth complexes (distal femur and proximal tibia) for ten pediatric patients undergoing gallium-67 scanning procedures. The effective half-life of Ga 67 in these organs was approximately 78 hours. The dose per unit of administered activity for the liver and spleen was between 0.3 and 4.0 rad/mCi (0.08 to 1.08 Gy/GBq) and 0.5 and 7.0 rad/mCi (0.13 to 1.89 Gy/GBq), respectively. For the metaphyseal growth plates, the range was 2.3 to 14.3 rad/mCi (0.62 to 3.86 Gy/GBq)

  15. Spatial Rice Yield Estimation Based on MODIS and Sentinel-1 SAR Data and ORYZA Crop Growth Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri D. Setiyono

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Crop insurance is a viable solution to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to risks from pest and disease outbreaks, extreme weather events, and market shocks that threaten their household food and income security. In developing and emerging countries, the implementation of area yield-based insurance, the form of crop insurance preferred by clients and industry, is constrained by the limited availability of detailed historical yield records. Remote-sensing technology can help to fill this gap by providing an unbiased and replicable source of the needed data. This study is dedicated to demonstrating and validating the methodology of remote sensing and crop growth model-based rice yield estimation with the intention of historical yield data generation for application in crop insurance. The developed system combines MODIS and SAR-based remote-sensing data to generate spatially explicit inputs for rice using a crop growth model. MODIS reflectance data were used to generate multitemporal LAI maps using the inverted Radiative Transfer Model (RTM. SAR data were used to generate rice area maps using MAPScape-RICE to mask LAI map products for further processing, including smoothing with logistic function and running yield simulation using the ORYZA crop growth model facilitated by the Rice Yield Estimation System (Rice-YES. Results from this study indicate that the approach of assimilating MODIS and SAR data into a crop growth model can generate well-adjusted yield estimates that adequately describe spatial yield distribution in the study area while reliably replicating official yield data with root mean square error, RMSE, of 0.30 and 0.46 t ha−1 (normalized root mean square error, NRMSE of 5% and 8% for the 2016 spring and summer seasons, respectively, in the Red River Delta of Vietnam, as evaluated at district level aggregation. The information from remote-sensing technology was also useful for identifying geographic locations with

  16. Estimates of phenotypic and genetic trends of growth traits in N ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... 0.18±0.06kg/yr and -0.005 ±0.003kglyr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. In contrast, all estimated genetic trends were relatively small and not significantly different from zero. They were 0.02±0.05kg/yr, 0.02±0.05kg/yr and 0.1g/yr for BTHWT, ADWNWT and ADG respectively. The sequential polynomial fitting of ...

  17. Impact of company capital structure on of its value growth estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirogova Oksana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the influence of the use of commercial loans on the free cash flow generation based on cost-based management concept. It is shown that the use of commercial credit instead of the usual short-term lending reduces the force of the operational lever. On the other hand, when calculating the economic added value indicators, the use of conventional lending leads to the increase in the economic added value and as a result of the higher cost of growth. This effect is associated with the redistribution of cash outflows and changes in the level of risk for the stakeholders of the enterprise.

  18. A data-driven approach to estimating the number of clusters in hierarchical clustering [version 1; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine E. Zambelli

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available DNA microarray and gene expression problems often require a researcher to perform clustering on their data in a bid to better understand its structure. In cases where the number of clusters is not known, one can resort to hierarchical clustering methods. However, there currently exist very few automated algorithms for determining the true number of clusters in the data. We propose two new methods (mode and maximum difference for estimating the number of clusters in a hierarchical clustering framework to create a fully automated process with no human intervention. These methods are compared to the established elbow and gap statistic algorithms using simulated datasets and the Biobase Gene ExpressionSet. We also explore a data mixing procedure inspired by cross validation techniques. We find that the overall performance of the maximum difference method is comparable or greater to that of the gap statistic in multi-cluster scenarios, and achieves that performance at a fraction of the computational cost. This method also responds well to our mixing procedure, which opens the door to future research. We conclude that both the mode and maximum difference methods warrant further study related to their mixing and cross-validation potential. We particularly recommend the use of the maximum difference method in multi-cluster scenarios given its accuracy and execution times, and present it as an alternative to existing algorithms.

  19. Traditional and alternative nonlinear models for estimating the growth of Morada Nova sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laaina de Andrade Souza

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, alternative and traditional nonlinear models to describe growth curves of Morada Nova sheep reared in the state of Bahia, Brazil, were applied. The nonlinear models were: Schnute, Mitscherlich, Gompertz, Logistic, Meloun I Meloun II, III Meloun, Gamito and Meloun IV. The model adjustment was evaluated by using: Adjusted Coefficient of Determination (R²aj, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC, Mean Squared Error of Prediction (MEP and Coefficient of Determination of Prediction (R²p. The selection of the best model was based on cluster analysis, using the evaluators as variables. Six out of the nine tested models converged, while Meloun I and Meloun IV were equally effective in explaining animal growth, without significant influence of sex or type of parturition over the curve parameters. The models Meloun I and IV have the best adjustment and reveal a remarkable reduction of weight gain after 150 days of age, which indicates special attention should be given to feeding at this stage.

  20. An optimally weighted estimator of the linear power spectrum disentangling the growth of density perturbations across galaxy surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sorini, D.

    2017-01-01

    Measuring the clustering of galaxies from surveys allows us to estimate the power spectrum of matter density fluctuations, thus constraining cosmological models. This requires careful modelling of observational effects to avoid misinterpretation of data. In particular, signals coming from different distances encode information from different epochs. This is known as ''light-cone effect'' and is going to have a higher impact as upcoming galaxy surveys probe larger redshift ranges. Generalising the method by Feldman, Kaiser and Peacock (1994) [1], I define a minimum-variance estimator of the linear power spectrum at a fixed time, properly taking into account the light-cone effect. An analytic expression for the estimator is provided, and that is consistent with the findings of previous works in the literature. I test the method within the context of the Halofit model, assuming Planck 2014 cosmological parameters [2]. I show that the estimator presented recovers the fiducial linear power spectrum at present time within 5% accuracy up to k ∼ 0.80 h Mpc −1 and within 10% up to k ∼ 0.94 h Mpc −1 , well into the non-linear regime of the growth of density perturbations. As such, the method could be useful in the analysis of the data from future large-scale surveys, like Euclid.

  1. Estimates of growth and mortality of under-yearling smallmouth bass in Spednic Lake, from 1970 through 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudley, Robert W.; Trial, Joan G.

    2014-01-01

    This report is the product of a 2013 cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey, the International Joint Commission, and the Maine Bureau of Sea Run Fisheries and Habitat to quantify the effects of meteorological conditions (from 1970 through 2008) on the survival of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) in the first year of life in Spednic Lake. This report documents the data and methods used to estimate historical daily mean lake surface-water temperatures from early spring through late autumn, which were used to estimate the dates of smallmouth bass spawning, young-of-the-year growth, and probable strength of each year class. Mortality of eggs and fry in nests was modeled and estimated to exceed 10 percent in 17 of 39 years; during those years, cold temperatures in the early part of the spawning period resulted in mortality to fish that were estimated to have had the longest growing season and attain the greatest length. Modeled length-dependent overwinter survival combined with early mortality identified 1986, 1994, 1996, and 2004 as the years in which temperature was likely to have presented the greatest challenge to year-class strength in the Spednic Lake fishery. Age distribution of bass in fisheries on lakes in the St. Croix and surrounding watersheds confirmed that conditions in 1986 and 1996 resulted in weak smallmouth bass year classes (age-four or age-five bass representing less than 15 percent of a 100-fish sample).

  2. Estimating blue whale skin isotopic incorporation rates and baleen growth rates: Implications for assessing diet and movement patterns in mysticetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busquets-Vass, Geraldine; Newsome, Seth D.; Calambokidis, John; Serra-Valente, Gabriela; Jacobsen, Jeff K.; Aguíñiga-García, Sergio; Gendron, Diane

    2017-01-01

    Stable isotope analysis in mysticete skin and baleen plates has been repeatedly used to assess diet and movement patterns. Accurate interpretation of isotope data depends on understanding isotopic incorporation rates for metabolically active tissues and growth rates for metabolically inert tissues. The aim of this research was to estimate isotopic incorporation rates in blue whale skin and baleen growth rates by using natural gradients in baseline isotope values between oceanic regions. Nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) isotope values of blue whale skin and potential prey were analyzed from three foraging zones (Gulf of California, California Current System, and Costa Rica Dome) in the northeast Pacific from 1996–2015. We also measured δ15N and δ13C values along the lengths of baleen plates collected from six blue whales stranded in the 1980s and 2000s. Skin was separated into three strata: basale, externum, and sloughed skin. A mean (±SD) skin isotopic incorporation rate of 163±91 days was estimated by fitting a generalized additive model of the seasonal trend in δ15N values of skin strata collected in the Gulf of California and the California Current System. A mean (±SD) baleen growth rate of 15.5±2.2 cm y-1 was estimated by using seasonal oscillations in δ15N values from three whales. These oscillations also showed that individual whales have a high fidelity to distinct foraging zones in the northeast Pacific across years. The absence of oscillations in δ15N values of baleen sub-samples from three male whales suggests these individuals remained within a specific zone for several years prior to death. δ13C values of both whale tissues (skin and baleen) and potential prey were not distinct among foraging zones. Our results highlight the importance of considering tissue isotopic incorporation and growth rates when studying migratory mysticetes and provide new insights into the individual movement strategies of blue whales. PMID:28562625

  3. Age estimation of juvenile European hake Merluccius merluccius based on otolith microstructure analysis: a slow or fast growth pattern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattoura, P; Lefkaditou, E; Megalofonou, P

    2015-03-01

    The main goal of this study was to examine otolith microstructure and to estimate the age and growth of European hake Merluccius merluccius from the eastern Mediterranean Sea. One hundred and twenty-nine specimens ranging from 102 to 438 mm in total length (LT ) were used. Age estimations were based on the study of the otolith microstructure, which was revealed after grinding both frontal sides of otoliths. The enumerations of the daily growth increments (DGI) as well as their width (WDGI ) measurements were made on calibrated digital images. The number of DGI in otoliths ranged between 163 and 717. Four phases in the WDGI evolution were distinguished: (1) larval-juvenile pelagic phase, with an increasing trend in WDGI up to the 60th DGI, (2) settlement phase, with a short-term deceleration in WDGI between the 61st and 150th DGI, (3) juvenile demersal phase, characterized by a stabilization of WDGI from 151st to 400th DGI and (4) adult phase, with a decreasing trend in WDGI after the 400th DGI. Age, sex and month of formation were found to affect the WDGI in all phases, with the exception of age at the juvenile demersal phase. The power curve with intercept model described best the relationship of M. merluccius LT with age (TDGI ), according to Akaike criteria, revealing differences in growth between females [LT = 65 · 36(TDGI )(0 · 40) - 388 · 55] and males [LT = 69 · 32(TDGI )(0 · 37) - 352 · 88] for the sizes examined. The mean daily growth rates were 0·61 mm day(-1) for females and 0·52 mm day(-1) for males, resulting in an LT of 283 and 265 mm at the end of their first year of life. In comparison with previous studies on the Mediterranean Sea, the results of this study showed a greater growth rate, similar to results from tagging experiments and otolith microstructure analyses for M. merluccius in other geographic areas. © 2014 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  4. International Trade, Pollution Accumulation and Sustainable Growth: A VAR Estimation from the Pearl River Delta Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Hui; Tian, Lu

    2018-03-01

    In order to investigate international trade influence in the regional environment. This paper constructs a vector auto-regression (VAR) model and estimates the equations with the environment and trade data of the Pearl River Delta Region. The major mechanisms to the lag are discussed and the fit simulation of the environmental change by the international impulse is given. The result shows that impulse of pollution-intensive export deteriorates the environment continuously and impulse of such import improves it. These effects on the environment are insignificantly correlated with contemporary regional income but significantly correlative to early-stage trade feature. To a typical trade-dependent economy, both export and import have hysteresis influence in the regional environment. The lagged impulse will change environmental development in the turning point, maximal pollution level and convergence.

  5. Growth, characterization and estimation of lattice strain and size in CdS nanoparticles: X-ray peak profile analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solanki, Rekha Garg; Rajaram, Poolla; Bajpai, P. K.

    2018-05-01

    This work is based on the growth, characterization and estimation of lattice strain and crystallite size in CdS nanoparticles by X-ray peak profile analysis. The CdS nanoparticles were synthesized by a non-aqueous solvothermal method and were characterized by powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), Raman and UV-visible spectroscopy. XRD confirms that the CdS nanoparticles have the hexagonal structure. The Williamson-Hall (W-H) method was used to study the X-ray peak profile analysis. The strain-size plot (SSP) was used to study the individual contributions of crystallite size and lattice strain from the X-rays peaks. The physical parameters such as strain, stress and energy density values were calculated using various models namely, isotropic strain model, anisotropic strain model and uniform deformation energy density model. The particle size was estimated from the TEM images to be in the range of 20-40 nm. The Raman spectrum shows the characteristic optical 1LO and 2LO vibrational modes of CdS. UV-visible absorption studies show that the band gap of the CdS nanoparticles is 2.48 eV. The results show that the crystallite size estimated from Scherrer's formula, W-H plots, SSP and the particle size calculated by TEM images are approximately similar.

  6. Predictive ability of genomic selection models for breeding value estimation on growth traits of Pacific white shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Quanchao; Yu, Yang; Li, Fuhua; Zhang, Xiaojun; Xiang, Jianhai

    2017-09-01

    Genomic selection (GS) can be used to accelerate genetic improvement by shortening the selection interval. The successful application of GS depends largely on the accuracy of the prediction of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV). This study is a first attempt to understand the practicality of GS in Litopenaeus vannamei and aims to evaluate models for GS on growth traits. The performance of GS models in L. vannamei was evaluated in a population consisting of 205 individuals, which were genotyped for 6 359 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers by specific length amplified fragment sequencing (SLAF-seq) and phenotyped for body length and body weight. Three GS models (RR-BLUP, BayesA, and Bayesian LASSO) were used to obtain the GEBV, and their predictive ability was assessed by the reliability of the GEBV and the bias of the predicted phenotypes. The mean reliability of the GEBVs for body length and body weight predicted by the different models was 0.296 and 0.411, respectively. For each trait, the performances of the three models were very similar to each other with respect to predictability. The regression coefficients estimated by the three models were close to one, suggesting near to zero bias for the predictions. Therefore, when GS was applied in a L. vannamei population for the studied scenarios, all three models appeared practicable. Further analyses suggested that improved estimation of the genomic prediction could be realized by increasing the size of the training population as well as the density of SNPs.

  7. Field-level validation of a CLIMEX model for Cactoblastis cactorum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) using estimated larval growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legaspi, Benjamin C; Legaspi, Jesusa Crisostomo

    2010-04-01

    Invasive pests, such as the cactus moth, Cactoblastis cactorum (Berg) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), have not reached equilibrium distributions and present unique opportunities to validate models by comparing predicted distributions with eventual realized geographic ranges. A CLIMEX model was developed for C. cactorum. Model validation was attempted at the global scale by comparing worldwide distribution against known occurrence records and at the field scale by comparing CLIMEX "growth indices" against field measurements of larval growth. Globally, CLIMEX predicted limited potential distribution in North America (from the Caribbean Islands to Florida, Texas, and Mexico), Africa (South Africa and parts of the eastern coast), southern India, parts of Southeast Asia, and the northeastern coast of Australia. Actual records indicate the moth has been found in the Caribbean (Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat Saint Kitts and Nevis, Cayman Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands), Cuba, Bahamas, Puerto Rico, southern Africa, Kenya, Mexico, and Australia. However, the model did not predict that distribution would extend from India to the west into Pakistan. In the United States, comparison of the predicted and actual distribution patterns suggests that the moth may be close to its predicted northern range along the Atlantic coast. Parts of Texas and most of Mexico may be vulnerable to geographic range expansion of C. cactorum. Larval growth rates in the field were estimated by measuring differences in head capsules and body lengths of larval cohorts at weekly intervals. Growth indices plotted against measures of larval growth rates compared poorly when CLIMEX was run using the default historical weather data. CLIMEX predicted a single period conducive to insect development, in contrast to the three generations observed in the field. Only time and more complete records will tell whether C. cactorum will extend its geographical distribution to regions predicted by the CLIMEX model. In terms

  8. Estimation of Fatigue Crack Growth Behavior of Cracked Specimen Under Mixed-mode Loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Jeong Woo; Woo, Eun Taek; Han, Seung Ho

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the fatigue crack propagation behavior of compact tension shear (CTS) specimen under mixed-mode loads, crack path prediction theories and Tanaka’s equation were applied. The stress intensity factor at a newly created crack tip was calculated using a finite element method via ANSYS, and the crack path and crack increment were then obtained from the crack path prediction theories, Tanaka’s equation, and the Paris’ equation, which were preprogrammed in Microsoft Excel. A new method called the finite element crack tip updating method (FECTUM) was developed. In this method, the finite element method and Microsoft Excel are used to calculate the stress intensity factors and the crack path, respectively, at the crack tip per each crack increment. The developed FECTUM was applied to simulate the fatigue crack propagation of a single-edge notched bending (SENB) specimen under eccentric three-point bending loads. The results showed that the number of cycles to failure of the specimen obtained experimentally and numerically were in good agreement within an error range of less than 3%

  9. Estimation of Fatigue Crack Growth Behavior of Cracked Specimen Under Mixed-mode Loads

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Jeong Woo [KIMM, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Woo, Eun Taek; Han, Seung Ho [Dong-A University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-07-15

    To estimate the fatigue crack propagation behavior of compact tension shear (CTS) specimen under mixed-mode loads, crack path prediction theories and Tanaka’s equation were applied. The stress intensity factor at a newly created crack tip was calculated using a finite element method via ANSYS, and the crack path and crack increment were then obtained from the crack path prediction theories, Tanaka’s equation, and the Paris’ equation, which were preprogrammed in Microsoft Excel. A new method called the finite element crack tip updating method (FECTUM) was developed. In this method, the finite element method and Microsoft Excel are used to calculate the stress intensity factors and the crack path, respectively, at the crack tip per each crack increment. The developed FECTUM was applied to simulate the fatigue crack propagation of a single-edge notched bending (SENB) specimen under eccentric three-point bending loads. The results showed that the number of cycles to failure of the specimen obtained experimentally and numerically were in good agreement within an error range of less than 3%.

  10. Handbook on loss reserving

    CERN Document Server

    Schmidt, Klaus; Schnaus, Anja

    2016-01-01

    This handbook presents the basic aspects of actuarial loss reserving. Besides the traditional methods, it also includes a description of more recent ones and a discussion of certain problems occurring in actuarial practice, like inflation, scarce data, large claims, slow loss development, the use of market statistics, the need for simulation techniques and the task of calculating best estimates and ranges of future losses. In property and casualty insurance the provisions for payment obligations from losses that have occurred but have not yet been settled usually constitute the largest item on the liabilities side of an insurer's balance sheet. For this reason, the determination and evaluation of these loss reserves is of considerable economic importance for every property and casualty insurer. Actuarial students, academics as well as practicing actuaries will benefit from this overview of the most important actuarial methods of loss reserving by developing an understanding of the underlying stochastic models...

  11. Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Direct and Maternal Effects in Growth Traits of Sangsari Sheep Using Gibbs Sampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zohreh Yousefi

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Small ruminants, especially native breed types, play an important role in livelihoods of a considerable part of human population in the tropics from socio-economic aspects. Therefore, integrated attempt in terms of management and genetic improvement to enhance production is of crucial importance. Knowledge of genetic variation and co-variation among traits is required for both the design of effective sheep breeding programs and the accurate prediction of genetic progress from these programs. Body weight and growth traits are one of the economically important traits in sheep production, especially in Iran where lamb sale is the main source of income for sheep breeders while other products are in secondary importance. Although mutton is the most important source of protein in Iran, meat production from the sheep does not cover the increasing consumer demand. On the other hand, increase in sheep number to increase meat production has been limited by low quality and quantity of forage range. Therefore, enhancing meat production should be achieved by selecting the animals that have maximum genetic merit as next generation parents. To design an efficient improvement program and genetic evaluation system for maximization response to selection for economically important traits, accurate estimates of the genetic parameters and the genetic relationships between the traits are necessary. Studies of various sheep breeds have shown that both direct and maternal genetic influences are of importance for lamb growth. When growth traits are included in the breeding goal, both direct and maternal genetic effects should be taken into account in order to achieve optimum genetic progress. The objective of this study was to estimate the variance components and heritability, for growth traits, by fitting six animal models in the Sangsari sheep using Gibbs sampling. Material and Method Sangsari is a fat-tailed and relatively small sized breed of sheep

  12. Hydrocarbon Reserves: Abundance or Scarcity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    IFP and the OAPEC jointly organize a regular international seminar dealing with world oil-related problems appearing in the news. For the first time, this seminar has been opened to oil and gas company specialists, service companies, research centers and independents. This year's theme concerns oil and gas reserves: are they abundant or are we headed towards the shortages announced by some experts? This theme is especially topical in that: oil and gas currently meet two thirds of world energy needs and almost completely dominate the transport sector; the reserves declared by the OAPEC countries account for nearly half of world reserves; the price of a barrel of oil went through the roof in 2004; world energy demand is growing fast and alternative sources of energy are far from ready to take over from oil and gas in the next few decades. Since the reserves correspond to the volume it is technically and economically viable to produce, the seminar has, of course, dealt with the technical and economic questions that arise in connection with exploration and production, but it has also considered changes in the geopolitical context. Presentations by the leading companies of the OAPEC countries and by the IFP group were completed by presentation from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the IHS Energy Group, Total and Gaz de France. This document gathers the transparencies of the following presentations: Hydrocarbon reserves in OAPEC members countries: current and future (M. Al-Lababidi); Non OAPEC liquid reserves and production forecasts (Y. Mathieu); World oil and gas resources and production outlook (K. Chew); Global investments in the upstream (F. Birol); Total's policy in the oil and gas sector (C. de Margerie); Gaz de France's policy in the oil and gas sector (J. Abiteboul); NOC/IOC's opportunities in OPEC countries (I. Sandrea); Relationships between companies, countries and investors: How they may impact on the growth

  13. Hydrocarbon Reserves: Abundance or Scarcity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    IFP and the OAPEC jointly organize a regular international seminar dealing with world oil-related problems appearing in the news. For the first time, this seminar has been opened to oil and gas company specialists, service companies, research centers and independents. This year's theme concerns oil and gas reserves: are they abundant or are we headed towards the shortages announced by some experts? This theme is especially topical in that: oil and gas currently meet two thirds of world energy needs and almost completely dominate the transport sector; the reserves declared by the OAPEC countries account for nearly half of world reserves; the price of a barrel of oil went through the roof in 2004; world energy demand is growing fast and alternative sources of energy are far from ready to take over from oil and gas in the next few decades. Since the reserves correspond to the volume it is technically and economically viable to produce, the seminar has, of course, dealt with the technical and economic questions that arise in connection with exploration and production, but it has also considered changes in the geopolitical context. Presentations by the leading companies of the OAPEC countries and by the IFP group were completed by presentation from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States Geological Survey (USGS), the IHS Energy Group, Total and Gaz de France. This document gathers the transparencies of the following presentations: Hydrocarbon reserves in OAPEC members countries: current and future (M. Al-Lababidi); Non OAPEC liquid reserves and production forecasts (Y. Mathieu); World oil and gas resources and production outlook (K. Chew); Global investments in the upstream (F. Birol); Total's policy in the oil and gas sector (C. de Margerie); Gaz de France's policy in the oil and gas sector (J. Abiteboul); NOC/IOC's opportunities in OPEC countries (I. Sandrea); Relationships between companies, countries and investors: How they may impact on the growth

  14. Hydrocarbon Reserves: Abundance or Scarcity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    impact on the growth of reserves and resources (H. Le Leuch); Additional reserves: the role of new technologies - A global perspective on EORIOR (G. Fries); - Updating reservoir models with dynamic data and uncertainty quantification: an integrated approach (F. Roggero); Seismic technology for the OAPEC countries (P. Canal); Exploration knowledge and technologies: impact of progress - Statistical results (N. Alazard); Stratigraphic modelling as a key to find new potentialities in exploration (D. Granjeon); Modelling hydrocarbon migration as a tool for reserve estimation (J-L. Rudkiewicz); The contribution of surface and near surface geology to hydrocarbon discoveries (S.M. Kumati); Contribution of the exploration activity in renewing reserves - The case of Algeria (R. Lounissi); Egypt's petroleum hydrocarbon potential (H. Hataba); Future of hydrocarbon reserves in Syria (T. Hemsh); Natural gas, the fuel of choice for decades to com (M.F. Chabrelie); The role and importance of Arab natural gas in world market (M. Al-Lababidi); LNG and GTL: two pathways for natural gas utilization (C. Cameron); Yet to find hydrocarbon potential (S. Al Menhali); Libyan context of hydrocarbon reserves: abundance or scarcity? (M. Elazi)

  15. US uranium reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, M.V.

    1981-01-01

    The current low level of demand, compounded by rapidly rising costs and low prices, has caused a significant reduction in drilling for uranium in the United States, and the trend is likely to continue for a few more years. The effect on uranium reserves will be fewer additions to reserves because less exploration is being done. Further reductions will occur, especially in low-cost reserves, because of increasing costs, continuing depletion through production, and erosion through the high grading of deposits to fulfill previous contractual commitments. During the past several years, it has been necessary to increase the upper reserve cost level twice to compensate for rising costs. Rising costs are reducing the $15 reserves, the cost category corresponding most closely to the present market price, to an insignificant level. An encouraging factor related to US uranium reserves is that the US position internationally, as far as quantity is concerned, is not bad for the longer term. Also, there is a general opinion that US consumers would rather contract for domestic uranium than for foreign because of greater assurance of supply. Still another factor, nearly impossible to assess, is what effect rising costs in other countries will have on their uranium reserves. The annual conferences between the Grand Junction Area Office staff and major uranium companies provide a broad overview of the industry's perception of the future. It is not optimistic for the short term. Many companies are reducing their exploration and mining programs; some are switching to other more marketable mineral commodities, and a few are investing more heavily in foreign ventures. However, there is general optimism for the long term, and many predict a growth in demand in the mid-1980s. If the industry can survive the few lean years ahead, rising prices may restore its viability to former levels

  16. Status of fossil fuel reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laherrere, J.

    2005-01-01

    Reserves represent the sum of past and future productions up to the end of production. In most countries the reserve data of fields are confidential. Therefore, fossil fuel reserves are badly known because the published data are more political than technical and many countries make a confusion between resources and reserves. The cumulated production of fossil fuels represents only between a third and a fifth of the ultimate reserves. The production peak will take place between 2020 and 2050. In the ultimate reserves, which extrapolate the past, the fossil fuels represent three thirds of the overall energy. This document analyses the uncertainties linked with fossil fuel reserves: reliability of published data, modeling of future production, comparison with other energy sources, energy consumption forecasts, reserves/production ratio, exploitation of non-conventional hydrocarbons (tar sands, extra-heavy oils, bituminous shales, coal gas, gas shales, methane in overpressure aquifers, methane hydrates), technology impacts, prices impact, and reserves growth. (J.S.)

  17. Estimations of bone maturation and calculations of prediction of adult height as tools for the evaluation of growth disorders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zachmann, M

    1982-03-01

    The methods of estimation of bone maturation (Greulich and Pyle, Tanner et al.) and the possibilities for the calculation of future adult heigth (Bayley and Pinneau, Roche et al., Tanner et al.) are briefly described and their advantages and disadvantages in normal children and in children with growth disorders are discussed. In normal children, all methods provide valuable results, but there are small differences of precision depending on whether the pubertal development is early, average, or late. In pathological conditions, however, as e.g. in precocious puberty or in girls with Turner syndrome, the methods of Roche et al. and of Tanner et al. may overestimate adult height considerably, while that of Bayley and Pinneau remains reasonably accurate. A computerized system, which facilitates the complicated and time-consuming calculations is briefly presented.

  18. Estimation of Nitrogenase Enzyme Activities and Plant Growth of Legume and Non-legume Inoculated with Diazotrophic Bacteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salwani S.

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Biological Nitrogen Fixation (BNF process benefits the agriculture sector especially for reducing cost of nitrogenfertilizer. In the process, the diazotrophs convert N2 into ammonia (NH3 which is useable by plants. The BNF process iscatalysed by nitrogenase enzyme that involved protons and electrons together with evolution of H2 therefore, theassessment of N2 fixation is also available via H2 production and electron allocation analysis. Thus, the aims of thisexperiment were to estimate the nitrogenase enzyme activities and observe the influence of diazothrophs on growth oflegume (soybean and non legume (rice plants. Host plants were inoculated with respective inocula; Bradyrhizobiumjaponicum (strain 532C for soybean while Azospirillum brasilense (Sp7 and locally isolated diazotroph (isolate 5 forrice. At harvest, the plants were observed for plant growth parameters, H2 evolution, N2 fixation and electron allocationcoefficient (EAC values. The experiment recorded N2 fixation activities of inoculated soybean plants at 141.2 μmol N2 h-1g-1 dry weight nodule, and the evolution of H2 at 144.4 μmol H2 h-1 g-1 dry weight nodule. The electron allocationcoefficient (EAC of soybean was recorded at 0.982. For inoculated rice plants, none of the observations was successfully recorded. However, results for chlorophyll contents and plant dry weight of both plants inoculated with respective inocula were similar to the control treatments supplied with full nitrogen fertilization (+N. The experiment clearly showed that inoculation of diazotrophic bacteria could enhance growth of the host plants similar to plants treated with nitrogenous fertilizer due to efficient N2 fixation process

  19. Growth process in an elephant tusk: Age estimations based on temporal variations in bomb-radiocarbon content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Toshio, E-mail: nakamura@nendai.nagoya-u.ac.jp [Center for Chronological Research, Nagoya University, Chikusa, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8602 (Japan); Koike, Hiroko [Kyushu University Museum, Kyushu University, Hakozaki, Fukuoka, Fukuoka 814-0180 (Japan); Aizawa, Jun; Okuno, Mitsuru [Department of Earth System Science, Faculty of Science, Fukuoka University, 8-19-1 Nanakuma, Jonan-ku, Fukuoka, Fukuoka 814-0180 (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    In this study, {sup 14}C analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was applied to age estimation based on temporal variations in bomb-produced-{sup 14}C contents of a full elephant tusk registered at Kyushu University. The tusk measured 175 cm long and 13.8 cm in diameter at the root. Thirty tusk-fragment samples were used for {sup 14}C analysis with AMS to estimate the formation ages of different positions according to catalogued global {sup 14}C contents (F{sup 14}C). The F{sup 14}C value of the tip of the tusk suggested that the elephant was born around 1980, while that of the root suggested death around 1994, a lifespan of at least 14 years, rather shorter period than the average lifetime of an elephant (ca. 80 years). In addition, the F{sup 14}C values of fragments collected along a cross-sectional line suggested that the outer part of the tusk formed first with inner parts being deposited gradually with growth.

  20. Growth process in an elephant tusk: Age estimations based on temporal variations in bomb-radiocarbon content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakamura, Toshio; Koike, Hiroko; Aizawa, Jun; Okuno, Mitsuru

    2015-01-01

    In this study, "1"4C analysis by accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) was applied to age estimation based on temporal variations in bomb-produced-"1"4C contents of a full elephant tusk registered at Kyushu University. The tusk measured 175 cm long and 13.8 cm in diameter at the root. Thirty tusk-fragment samples were used for "1"4C analysis with AMS to estimate the formation ages of different positions according to catalogued global "1"4C contents (F"1"4C). The F"1"4C value of the tip of the tusk suggested that the elephant was born around 1980, while that of the root suggested death around 1994, a lifespan of at least 14 years, rather shorter period than the average lifetime of an elephant (ca. 80 years). In addition, the F"1"4C values of fragments collected along a cross-sectional line suggested that the outer part of the tusk formed first with inner parts being deposited gradually with growth.

  1. Analyses and estimates of hydraulic conductivity from slug tests in alluvial aquifer underlying Air Force Plant 4 and Naval Air Station-Joint Reserve Base Carswell Field, Fort Worth, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houston, Natalie A.; Braun, Christopher L.

    2004-01-01

    This report describes the collection, analyses, and distribution of hydraulic-conductivity data obtained from slug tests completed in the alluvial aquifer underlying Air Force Plant 4 and Naval Air Station-Joint Reserve Base Carswell Field, Fort Worth, Texas, during October 2002 and August 2003 and summarizes previously available hydraulic-conductivity data. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Air Force, completed 30 slug tests in October 2002 and August 2003 to obtain estimates of horizontal hydraulic conductivity to use as initial values in a ground-water-flow model for the site. The tests were done by placing a polyvinyl-chloride slug of known volume beneath the water level in selected wells, removing the slug, and measuring the resulting water-level recovery over time. The water levels were measured with a pressure transducer and recorded with a data logger. Hydraulic-conductivity values were estimated from an analytical relation between the instantaneous displacement of water in a well bore and the resulting rate of head change. Although nearly two-thirds of the tested wells recovered 90 percent of their slug-induced head change in less than 2 minutes, 90-percent recovery times ranged from 3 seconds to 35 minutes. The estimates of hydraulic conductivity range from 0.2 to 200 feet per day. Eighty-three percent of the estimates are between 1 and 100 feet per day.

  2. Estimating non-genetic and genetic parameters of pre-weaning growth traits in Raini Cashmere goat.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barazandeh, Arsalan; Moghbeli, Sadrollah Molaei; Vatankhah, Mahmood; Mohammadabadi, Mohammadreza

    2012-04-01

    Data and pedigree information used in the present study were 3,022 records of kids obtained from the breeding station of Raini goat. The studied traits were birth weight (BW), weaning weight (WW), average daily gain from birth to weaning (ADG) and Kleiber ratio at weaning (KR). The model included the fixed effects of sex of kid, type of birth, age of dam, year of birth, month of birth, and age of kid (days) as covariate that had significant effects, and random effects direct additive genetic, maternal additive genetic, maternal permanent environmental effects and residual. (Co) variance components were estimated using univariate and multivariate analysis by WOMBAT software applying four animal models including and ignoring maternal effects. Likelihood ratio test used to determine the most appropriate models. Heritability (h(a)(2)) estimates for BW, WW, ADG, and KR according to suitable model were 0.12 ± 0.05, 0.08 ± 0.06, 0.10 ± 0.06, and 0.06 ± 0.05, respectively. Estimates of the proportion of maternal permanent environmental effect to phenotypic variance (c(2)) were 0.17 ± 0.03, 0.07 ± 0.03, and 0.07 ± 0.03 for BW, WW, and ADG, respectively. Genetic correlations among traits were positive and ranged from 0.53 (BW-ADG) to 1.00 (WW-ADG, WW-KR, and ADG-KR). The maternal permanent environmental correlations between BW-WW, BW-ADG, and WW-ADG were 0.54, 0.48, and 0.99, respectively. Results indicated that maternal effects, especially maternal permanent environmental effects are an important source of variation in pre-weaning growth trait and ignoring those in the model redound incorrect genetic evaluation of kids.

  3. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  4. 10 years anniversary of the Poles'e state radioecological reserve (collected articles)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parfenov, V.I.

    1998-01-01

    The results of long time investigations of radionuclide contamination dynamics of soils, flora and fauna conducted by research workers of the reserve and National Academy of Sciences of Belarus on the territory of the reserve are offered. The different aspects of plant growth and animal behaviour in new ecological conditions are estimated

  5. Growth rates and age at adult size of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta in the Mediterranean Sea, estimated through capture-mark-recapture records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Casale

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Growth rates of the juvenile phase of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta were estimated for the first time in the Mediterranean Sea from capture-mark-recapture records. Thirty-eight turtles were released from Italian coasts and re-encountered after 1.0-10.9 years in the period 1986-2007. Their mean CCL (curved carapace length ranged from 32.5 to 82.0 cm and they showed variable growth rates, ranging from 0 to 5.97 cm/yr (mean: 2.5. The association between annual growth rate and three covariates (mean year, mean size and time interval was investigated through a non-parametric modelling approach. Only mean size showed a clear effect on growth rate, described by a monotonic declining curve. Variability indicates that factors not included in the model, probably individual-related ones, have an important effect on growth rates. Based on the monotonic decreasing growth function which indicates no growth spurt, a von Bertalanffy growth function was used to estimate the time required by turtles to grow within the observed size range. The results indicate that turtles would take 16-28 years to reach 66.5-84.7 cm CCL, the average nesting female sizes observed at the most important Mediterranean nesting sites, which can be considered an approximation of the size at maturity.

  6. Menstrual cycle length: a surrogate measure of reproductive health capable of improving the accuracy of biochemical/sonographical ovarian reserve test in estimating the reproductive chances of women referred to ART.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gizzo, Salvatore; Andrisani, Alessandra; Noventa, Marco; Quaranta, Michela; Esposito, Federica; Armanini, Decio; Gangemi, Michele; Nardelli, Giovanni B; Litta, Pietro; D'Antona, Donato; Ambrosini, Guido

    2015-04-10

    Aim of the study was to investigate whether menstrual cycle length may be considered as a surrogate measure of reproductive health, improving the accuracy of biochemical/sonographical ovarian reserve test in estimating the reproductive chances of women referred to ART. A retrospective-observational-study in Padua' public tertiary level Centre was conducted. A total of 455 normo-ovulatory infertile women scheduled for their first fresh non-donor IVF/ICSI treatment. The mean menstrual cycle length (MCL) during the preceding 6 months was calculated by physicians on the basis of information contained in our electronic database (first day of menstrual cycle collected every month by telephonic communication by single patients). We evaluated the relations between MCL, ovarian response to stimulation protocol, oocytes fertilization ratio, ovarian sensitivity index (OSI) and pregnancy rate in different cohorts of patients according to the class of age and the estimated ovarian reserve. In women younger than 35 years, MCL over 31 days may be associated with an increased risk of OHSS and with a good OSI. In women older than 35 years, and particularly than 40 years, MCL shortening may be considered as a marker of ovarian aging and may be associated with poor ovarian response, low OSI and reduced fertilization rate. When AMH serum value is lower than 1.1 ng/ml in patients older than 40 years, MCL may help Clinicians discriminate real from expected poor responders. Considering the pool of normoresponders, MCL was not correlated with pregnancy rate while a positive association was found with patients' age. MCL diary is more predictive than chronological age in estimating ovarian biological age and response to COH and it is more predictive than AMH in discriminating expected from real poor responders. In women older than 35 years MCL shortening may be considered as a marker of ovarian aging while chronological age remains most accurate parameter in predicting pregnancy.

  7. Statistical modelling and RCS detrending methods provide similar estimates of long-term trend in radial growth of common beech in north-eastern France

    OpenAIRE

    Bontemps , Jean-Daniel; Esper , Jan

    2011-01-01

    International audience; Dendrochronological methods have greatly contributed to the documentation of past long-term trends in forest growth. These methods primarily focus on the high-frequency signals of tree ring chronologies. They require the removal of the ageing trend in tree growth, known as 'standardisation' or 'detrending', as a prerequisite to the estimation of such trends. Because the approach is sequential, it may however absorb part of the low-frequency historical signal. In this s...

  8. Growth parameters estimates of Maurolicus stehmanni Parin & Kobyliansky 1996 (Teleostei, Sternoptichydae from south and southeastern Brazilian waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre Bellucco

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper on the otolith microstructure analysis of Maurolicus stehmanni presents estimates of the species growth parameters and longevity. The species inhabits the outer shelf and slope of the southern and southeastern Brazilian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ. Growth parameters are important for the knowledge of the species' life history and rational management. M. stehmanni constitutes an important link between the initial and final components of the alimentary chain of the open sea ecosystem, being one of the main food items for squids and large pelagic fish. Among the various applied methods those which presented the most coherent values for growth parameters and were best adapted to the von Bertallanfy's equation were: Li= 55mm K= 0.0088/day and to= 5.5 days Maurolicus stehmanni's longevity is of less than one year (around 220 days and the sagita daily otolith rings are useful for the determination of its age.Este estudo, baseado na análise da microestrutura dos otólitos de Maurolicus stehmanni, apresenta estimativas dos parâmetros de crescimento e longevidade para esta espécie que habita a plataforma externa e o talude da ZEE sul-sudeste do Brasil. Estes parâmetros são importantes para o conhecimento da estratégia de vida da espécie e para o manejo deste recurso, que constitui um importante elo entre os componentes iniciais e finais da teia alimentar no ecossistema de mar aberto, sendo um dos principais itens na dieta das lulas e grandes peixes pelágicos. Dentre os vários métodos aplicados, os valores dos parâmetros de crescimento mais coerentes com a estratégia da espécie e que melhor se ajustaram à equação de von Bertallanfy foram: Li= 55mm K= 0.0088/dia e to= 5.5 dias. A espécie vive cerca de 220 dias e as marcas diárias nos otólitos sagita são apropriadas para a determinação da idade.

  9. Heritability and variance components estimates for growth traits in Saudi Ardi goat and Damascus goat and their crosses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K M Mohammed

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To study the genetic and non-genetic factors and their interactions affecting growth rate and body weights at birth, weaning and at 6 months of age in Saudi Ardi, Damascus goats and their crosses.Methods: Crossbreeding program between Saudi Ardi(A goats with Damascus(D was carried out to improve the meat productivity of Ardi goats through crossbreeding. The pedigree records of the body weights were obtained from 754 kids (397 males and 357 females produced from 46 Sires and 279 Dams. Birth weight, weaning weigh and 6 months weight as well as average daily gain during different growth stages from birth to weaning (D1, weaning to 6 months (D2 and from birth to 6 months of age (D3 were recorded during winter/autumn and summer/spring. Data were classified according to breed, generation, sex, season, year, and type of birth. Data were analyzed using GLM procedure for the least-squares means of the fixed factors. Heritability and genetic parameters were estimated with derivative-free restricted maximum likelihood procedures using the MTDFREML program.Results: The percentages of variations were moderate for body weights and high for daily gains. Genetic groups had a highly significant (P<0.01 effect on the body weights traits. Damascus goats had higher (P<0.01 birth and weaning weights, but ½D½A group kids had a higher (P<0.01 body weight at 6 months. The genetic groups had a significant effects on the daily weight gains for D1 (P<0.01 and D3 (P<0.05 periods, whereas, it had no effects on D2 period. The fixed effects of sex, season, year and type of birth were significant differences for body weights. Male kids were heavier (P<0.01 than females for different growth stages. Body weights and daily gains during winter/autumn were significantly higher (P<0.01 than summer/ spring. Kids born and raised as singles were significantly (P<0.01 heavier than those were born as twins or triplets. The genetic and phenotypic correlations between birth

  10. Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

    2011-05-01

    Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi

  11. A practical application of the geological and mining characterization method to the “Rosa Porriño” deposit (Galicia, Spain). Quality cartography and estimation of the distribution of reserves for mining exploitation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrero Arias, A.; Taboada Castro, J.; Iglesias Comesaña, C.; Baltuille Martín, J.M.; Giráldez Pérez, E.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the “Rosa Porriño” granite, which is known worldwide and has been marketed for more than 50 years, through the application of geologic-mining techniques. These techniques are widely used for analysing rock masses with the aim of commercially exploiting them. The basis is the general criteria for the characterization of geological and mining parameters: the lithologies present and their distribution, types and location of fractures, the industrial quality of the rock and the location of the exploitable rock volumes, previous activity, planning possibilities and rationalization of the exploitation, to name a few. This geological and mining information was used to make a map of the industrial qualities, forming the basis for the estimation of reserves and their distribution within the deposit. The application of geostatistical techniques allowed the definition of the three dimensions and thus the existing volumes corresponding to each industrial quality (defined in the geological-mining cartography). Four different qualities were defined and their volumes estimated, namely first and second qualities for granite suitable for its use as ornamental stone or other applications of high added value; third quality for the granite suitable for its use as a construction material (generally of smaller volume than the previous qualities) and the fourth quality for the granite for aggregates. The overburden zones were determined as well. Once the reserves of the qualities and their spatial distribution within the deposit are known, different alternatives for a rational exploitation can be considered for the existing operating units. This modelling enables a more effective and efficient mining operation, with controlled, lower environmental impact and thus with a more sustainable exploitation of the mining resources. [es

  12. Prediction of fetal growth restriction using estimated fetal weight vs a combined screening model in the third trimester.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, J; Rodriguez-Lopez, M; Triunfo, S; Sairanen, M; Kouru, H; Parra-Saavedra, M; Crovetto, F; Figueras, F; Crispi, F; Gratacós, E

    2017-11-01

    To compare the performance of third-trimester screening, based on estimated fetal weight centile (EFWc) vs a combined model including maternal baseline characteristics, fetoplacental ultrasound and maternal biochemical markers, for the prediction of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) neonates and late-onset fetal growth restriction (FGR). This was a nested case-control study within a prospective cohort of 1590 singleton gestations undergoing third-trimester (32 + 0 to 36 + 6 weeks' gestation) evaluation. Maternal baseline characteristics, mean arterial pressure, fetoplacental ultrasound and circulating biochemical markers (placental growth factor (PlGF), lipocalin-2, unconjugated estriol and inhibin A) were assessed in all women who subsequently delivered a SGA neonate (n = 175), defined as birth weight < 10 th centile according to customized standards, and in a control group (n = 875). Among SGA cases, those with birth weight < 3 rd centile and/or abnormal uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI) and/or abnormal cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) were classified as FGR. Logistic regression predictive models were developed for SGA and FGR, and their performance was compared with that obtained using EFWc alone. In SGA cases, EFWc, CPR Z-score and maternal serum concentrations of unconjugated estriol and PlGF were significantly lower, while mean UtA-PI Z-score and lipocalin-2 and inhibin A concentrations were significantly higher, compared with controls. Using EFWc alone, 52% (area under receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC), 0.82 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85)) of SGA and 64% (AUC, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.81-0.91)) of FGR cases were predicted at a 10% false-positive rate. A combined screening model including a-priori risk (maternal characteristics), EFWc, UtA-PI, PlGF and estriol (with lipocalin-2 for SGA) achieved a detection rate of 61% (AUC, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.83-0.89)) for SGA cases and 77% (AUC, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.88-0.95)) for FGR. The combined model for the

  13. MODEL-ASSISTED ESTIMATION OF THE GENETIC VARIABILITY IN PHYSIOLOGICAL PARAMETERS RELATED TO TOMATO FRUIT GROWTH UNDER CONTRASTED WATER CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Constantinescu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Drought stress is a major abiotic stres threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding Drought stress is a major abiotic stress threatening plant and crop productivity. In case of fleshy fruits, understanding mechanisms governing water and carbon accumulations and identifying genes, QTLs and phenotypes, that will enable trade-offs between fruit growth and quality under Water Deficit (WD condition is a crucial challenge for breeders and growers. In the present work, 117 recombinant inbred lines of a population of Solanum lycopersicum were phenotyped under control and WD conditions. Plant water status, fruit growth and composition were measured and data were used to calibrate a process-based model describing water and carbon fluxes in a growing fruit as a function of plant and environment. Eight genotype-dependent model parameters were estimated using a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm in order to minimize the prediction errors of fruit dry and fresh mass throughout fruit development. WD increased the fruit dry matter content (up to 85 % and decreased its fresh weight (up to 60 %, big fruit size genotypes being the most sensitive. The mean normalized root mean squared errors of the predictions ranged between 16-18 % in the population. Variability in model genotypic parameters allowed us to explore diverse genetic strategies in response to WD. An interesting group of genotypes could be discriminated in which i the low loss of fresh mass under WD was associated with high active uptake of sugars and low value of the maximum cell wall extensibility, and ii the high dry matter content in control treatment (C was associated with a slow decrease of mass flow. Using 501 SNP markers genotyped across the genome, a QTL analysis of model parameters allowed to detect three main QTLs related to xylem and phloem conductivities, on chromosomes 2, 4 and 8. The model was then applied to design ideotypes with high dry matter

  14. The Use of Piecewise Growth Models to Estimate Learning Trajectories and RtI Instructional Effects in a Comparative Interrupted Time-Series Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zvoch, Keith

    2016-01-01

    Piecewise growth models (PGMs) were used to estimate and model changes in the preliteracy skill development of kindergartners in a moderately sized school district in the Pacific Northwest. PGMs were applied to interrupted time-series (ITS) data that arose within the context of a response-to-intervention (RtI) instructional framework. During the…

  15. Radiocarbon Dating of an Olive Tree Cross-Section: New Insights on Growth Patterns and Implications for Age Estimation of Olive Trees

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yael Ehrlich

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The age of living massive olive trees is often assumed to be between hundreds and even thousands of years. These estimations are usually based on the girth of the trunk and an extrapolation based on a theoretical annual growth rate. It is difficult to objectively verify these claims, as a monumental tree may not be cut down for analysis of its cross-section. In addition, the inner and oldest part of the trunk in olive trees usually rots, precluding the possibility of carting out radiocarbon analysis of material from the first years of life of the tree. In this work we present a cross-section of an olive tree, previously estimated to be hundreds of years old, which was cut down post-mortem in 2013. The cross-section was radiocarbon dated at numerous points following the natural growth pattern, which was made possible to observe by viewing the entire cross-section. Annual growth rate values were calculated and compared between different radii. The cross-section also revealed a nearly independent segment of growth, which would clearly offset any estimations based solely on girth calculations. Multiple piths were identified, indicating the beginning of branching within the trunk. Different radii were found to have comparable growth rates, resulting in similar estimates dating the piths to the 19th century. The estimated age of the piths represent a terminus ante quem for the age of the tree, as these are piths of separate branches. However, the tree is likely not many years older than the dated piths, and certainly not centuries older. The oldest radiocarbon-datable material in this cross-section was less than 200 years old, which is in agreement with most other radiocarbon dates of internal wood from living olive trees, rarely older than 300 years.

  16. Estimates of Uncertainty around the RBA's Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Tulip; Stephanie Wallace

    2012-01-01

    We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals and other estimates of uncertainty around the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecasts of key macroeconomic variables. Our estimates suggest that uncertainty about forecasts is high. We find that the RBA's forecasts have substantial explanatory power for the inflation rate but not for GDP growth.

  17. Weight-for-length/height growth curves for children and adolescents in China in comparison with body mass index in prevalence estimates of malnutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong, Xinnan; Li, Hui; Zhang, Yaqin; Wu, Huahong

    2017-05-01

    It is important to update weight-for-length/height growth curves in China and re-examine their performance in screening malnutrition. To develop weight-for-length/height growth curves for Chinese children and adolescents. A total of 94 302 children aged 0-19 years with complete sex, age, weight and length/height data were obtained from two cross-sectional large-scaled national surveys in China. Weight-for-length/height growth curves were constructed using the LMS method before and after average spermarcheal/menarcheal ages, respectively. Screening performance in prevalence estimates of wasting, overweight and obesity was compared between weight-for-height and body mass index (BMI) criteria based on a test population of 21 416 children aged 3-18. The smoothed weight-for-length percentiles and Z-scores growth curves with length 46-110 cm for both sexes and weight-for-height with height 70-180 cm for boys and 70-170 cm for girls were established. The weight-for-height and BMI-for-age had strong correlation in screening wasting, overweight and obesity in each age-sex group. There was no striking difference in prevalence estimates of wasting, overweight and obesity between two indicators except for obesity prevalence at ages 6-11. This set of smoothed weight-for-length/height growth curves may be useful in assessing nutritional status from infants to post-pubertal adolescents.

  18. Risk spreading, connectivity, and optimal reserve spacing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blowes, Shane A; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-01-01

    Two important processes determining the dynamics of spatially structured populations are dispersal and the spatial covariance of demographic fluctuations. Spatially explicit approaches to conservation, such as reserve networks, must consider the tension between these two processes and reach a balance between distances near enough to maintain connectivity, but far enough to benefit from risk spreading. Here, we model this trade-off. We show how two measures of metapopulation persistence depend on the shape of the dispersal kernel and the shape of the distance decay in demographic covariance, and we consider the implications of this trade-off for reserve spacing. The relative rates of distance decay in dispersal and demographic covariance determine whether the long-run metapopulation growth rate, and quasi-extinction risk, peak for adjacent patches or intermediately spaced patches; two local maxima in metapopulation persistence are also possible. When dispersal itself fluctuates over time, the trade-off changes. Temporal variation in mean distance that propagules are dispersed (i.e., propagule advection) decreases metapopulation persistence and decreases the likelihood that persistence will peak for adjacent patches. Conversely, variation in diffusion (the extent of random spread around mean dispersal) increases metapopulation persistence overall and causes it to peak at shorter inter-patch distances. Thus, failure to consider temporal variation in dispersal processes increases the risk that reserve spacings will fail to meet the objective of ensuring metapopulation persistence. This study identifies two phenomena that receive relatively little attention in empirical work on reserve spacing, but that can qualitatively change the effectiveness of reserve spacing strategies: (1) the functional form of the distance decay in covariance among patch-specific demographic rates and (2) temporal variation in the shape of the dispersal kernel. The sensitivity of metapopulation

  19. Towards a Quantitative Use of Satellite Remote Sensing in Crop Growth Models for Large Scale Agricultural Production Estimate (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Defourny, P.

    2013-12-01

    such the Green Area Index (GAI), fAPAR and fcover usually retrieved from MODIS, MERIS, SPOT-Vegetation described the quality of the green vegetation development. The GLOBAM (Belgium) and EU FP-7 MOCCCASIN projects (Russia) improved the standard products and were demonstrated over large scale. The GAI retrieved from MODIS time series using a purity index criterion depicted successfully the inter-annual variability. Furthermore, the quantitative assimilation of these GAI time series into a crop growth model improved the yield estimate over years. These results showed that the GAI assimilation works best at the district or provincial level. In the context of the GEO Ag., the Joint Experiment of Crop Assessment and Monitoring (JECAM) was designed to enable the global agricultural monitoring community to compare such methods and results over a variety of regional cropping systems. For a network of test sites around the world, satellite and field measurements are currently collected and will be made available for collaborative effort. This experiment should facilitate international standards for data products and reporting, eventually supporting the development of a global system of systems for agricultural crop assessment and monitoring.

  20. Inter-lab comparison of precision and recommended methods for age estimation of Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris using growth layer groups in earbones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Brill

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Manatees are routinely aged by counting Growth Layer Groups (GLGs in periotic bones (earbones. Manatee carcasses recovered in Florida between 1974 and 2010 provided age-estimation material for three readers and formed the base for a retrospective analysis of aging precision (repeatability. All readers were in good agreement (high precision with the greatest apparent source of variation being the result of earbone remodelling with increasing manatee age. Over the same period, methods of sample preparation and of determining a final age estimate changed. We examined the effects of altering methods on ease of reading GLGs and found no statistical differences. Accurate age estimates are an important component for effective management of the species and for better models of population trends and we summarize the currently recommended methods for estimating manatee ages using earbones.

  1. Replacing reserve requirements

    OpenAIRE

    Edward J. Stevens

    1993-01-01

    An examination of the fading significance of the Federal Reserve System's reserve requirements and the recent flowering of required clearing balances, a rapidly growing feature of Reserve Bank operations.

  2. Securities issues in reserves reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Legg, M.B.

    1997-01-01

    Securities issues in oil and gas reserves reporting were discussed. Alberta requires specific information regarding important oil and gas properties, plants, facilities and installations. When preparing the reserves report, the following elements are important to consider: (1) the author of the report must be a registered professional engineer or registered professional geologist, (2) the report itself must be an engineering document, (3) the content of the report must be extensive, (4) it should be prepared in accordance with petroleum engineering and evaluation practices, and must include a summary of estimated net reserves

  3. Estimating Common Growth Patterns in Juvenile Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from Diverse Genetic Stocks and a Large Spatial Extent.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascale A L Goertler

    Full Text Available Life history variation in Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp. supports species resilience to natural disturbances and fishery exploitation. Within salmon species, life-history variation often manifests during freshwater and estuarine rearing, as variation in growth. To date, however, characterizing variability in growth patterns within and among individuals has been difficult via conventional sampling methods because of the inability to obtain repeated size measurements. In this study we related otolith microstructures to growth rates of individual juvenile Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha from the Columbia River estuary over a two-year period (2010-2012. We used dynamic factor analysis to determine whether there were common patterns in growth rates within juveniles based on their natal region, capture location habitat type, and whether they were wild or of hatchery origin. We identified up to five large-scale trends in juvenile growth rates depending on month and year of capture. We also found that hatchery fish had a narrower range of trend loadings for some capture groups, suggesting that hatchery fish do not express the same breadth of growth variability as wild fish. However, we were unable to resolve a relationship between specific growth patterns and habitat transitions. Our study exemplifies how a relatively new statistical analysis can be applied to dating or aging techniques to summarize individual variation, and characterize aspects of life history diversity.

  4. Microbial growth yield estimates from thermodynamics and its importance for degradation of pesticides and formation of biogenic non-extractable residues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brock, Andreas Libonati; Kästner, M.; Trapp, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    NER. Formation of microbial mass can be estimated from the microbial growth yield, but experimental data is rare. Instead, we suggest using prediction methods for the theoretical yield based on thermodynamics. Recently, we presented the Microbial Turnover to Biomass (MTB) method that needs a minimum...... and using the released CO2 as a measure for microbial activity, we predicted a range for the formation of biogenic NER. For the majority of the pesticides, a considerable fraction of the NER was estimated to be biogenic. This novel approach provides a theoretical foundation applicable to the evaluation...

  5. Inter-lab comparison of precision and recommended methods for age estimation of Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) using growth layer groups in earbones

    OpenAIRE

    Brill, Katherine; Marmontel, Miriam; Bolen-Richardson, Meghan; Stewart, Robert EA

    2016-01-01

    Manatees are routinely aged by counting Growth Layer Groups (GLGs) in periotic bones (earbones). Manatee carcasses recovered in Florida between 1974 and 2010 provided age-estimation material for three readers and formed the base for a retrospective analysis of aging precision (repeatability). All readers were in good agreement (high precision) with the greatest apparent source of variation being the result of earbone remodelling with increasing manatee age. Over the same period, methods of sa...

  6. FlorNExT®, a cloud computing application to estimate growth and yield of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) stands in Northeastern Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barreiro, S.; Rua, J.; Tomé, M.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study. To introduce and describe FlorNExT®, a free cloud computing application to estimate growth and yield of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.) even-aged stands in the Northeast of Portugal (NE Portugal). Area of study: NE Portugal. Material and methods: FlorNExT® implements a dynamic growth and yield modelling framework which integrates transition functions for dominant height (site index curves) and basal area, as well as output functions for tree and stand volume, biomass, and carbon content. Main results: FlorNExT® is freely available from any device with an Internet connection at: http://flornext.esa.ipb.pt/. Research highlights: This application has been designed to make it possible for any stakeholder to easily estimate standing volume, biomass, and carbon content in maritime pine stands from stand data, as well as to estimate growth and yield based on four stand variables: age, density, dominant height, and basal area. FlorNExT® allows planning thinning treatments. FlorNExT® is a fundamental tool to support forest mobilization at local and regional scales in NE Portugal. (Author)

  7. FlorNExT®, a cloud computing application to estimate growth and yield of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait. stands in Northeastern Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Pérez-Rodríguez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study: To introduce and describe FlorNExT®, a free cloud computing application to estimate growth and yield of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait. even-aged stands in the Northeast of Portugal (NE Portugal. Area of study: NE Portugal. Material and methods: FlorNExT® implements a dynamic growth and yield modelling framework which integrates transition functions for dominant height (site index curves and basal area, as well as output functions for tree and stand volume, biomass, and carbon content. Main results: FlorNExT® is freely available from any device with an Internet connection at: http://flornext.esa.ipb.pt/. Research highlights: This application has been designed to make it possible for any stakeholder to easily estimate standing volume, biomass, and carbon content in maritime pine stands from stand data, as well as to estimate growth and yield based on four stand variables: age, density, dominant height, and basal area. FlorNExT® allows planning thinning treatments. FlorNExT® is a fundamental tool to support forest mobilization at local and regional scales in NE Portugal. Keywords: forest management; maritime pine; forest modelling; knowledge transfer tool.

  8. EucaTool®, a cloud computing application for estimating the growth and production of Eucalyptus globulus Labill. plantations in Galicia (NW Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Rojo-Alboreca

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: To present the software utilities and explain how to use EucaTool®, a free cloud computing application developed to estimate the growth and production of seedling and clonal blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill. plantations in Galicia (NW Spain.Area of study: Galicia (NW Spain.Material and methods: EucaTool® implements a dynamic growth and production model that is valid for clonal and non-clonal blue gum plantations in the region. The model integrates transition functions for dominant height (site index curves, number of stems per hectare (mortality function and basal area, as well as output functions for tree and stand volume, biomass and carbon content.Main results: EucaTool® can be freely accessed from any device with an Internet connection, from http://app.eucatool.com. In addition, useful information about the application is published on a related website: http://www.eucatool.com.Research highlights: The application has been designed to enable forest stakeholders to estimate volume, biomass and carbon content of forest plantations from individual trees, diameter classes or stand data, as well as to estimate growth and future production (indicating the optimal rotation age for maximum income by measurement of only four stand variables: age, number of trees per hectare, dominant height and basal area.Keywords: forest management; biomass; seedling; clones; blue gum; forest tool.

  9. On-farm estimation of pig growth parameters from longitudinal data of live weight and feed consumption and the use of a mathematical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Schiavon

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Experimental data of feed consumption and composition, recorded over 5 consecutive short periods of growth from 30 crossbred male pigs divided 2 two groups and fed two restricted feeding regimes from 25 to 160 kg LW, were used to run a model in which a set of theoretical values, to describe the potential chemical growth of the pig, was preliminarily assumed. Simulated values of average daily gain (ADG and feed conversion ratio (FCR were the outputs. Estimates of protein mass at maturity (Pm, kg and relative growth rate (B, d-1 for each feeding regimes where successively obtained through an optimization procedure which has minimized the coefficients of variation of the differences between the estimates and the measurements of ADG and FCR. The very similar values of Pm (33.7 and 33.2 kg, and B (0.0104 and 0.0105 d-1, obtained for the two feed treatments suggested that these values can be used as operational data to describe the growth parameters of the experimental pigs used.

  10. Growth of Araucaria angustifolia in the Embrapa/Epagri forest reserve, Caçador, SC, Brazil Crescimento de Araucaria angustifolia na Reserva Florestal Embrapa/ Epagri, Caçador, SC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Póvoa de Mattos

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Araucaria Forest is one of most threatened phyto-physiognomies in the Atlantic Forest domain,
    presenting great ecological-economical importance. Nevertheless, there are still lacks of knowledge concerning growth and dynamic of important species, as Araucaria angustifolia. The objective of this work was to recover  the past growth of Araucaria angustifolia, native from Caçador, SC, Brazil, by measuring growth rings and to estimate the average periodic diametric increment. The growth rings were counted and measured, using a stereoscope microscope, in increment cores of 0.5 cm collected from 32 adult trees. The measurements were done with LINTAB measuring table, with 0.01 mm of precision. The samples sizes were irregular, varying from 4.2 to 20.2 cm long. The trees presented average diameter breast height (DBH of 76.3 cm, varying from 10.7 to 141.3 cm. The periodic diameter increment from the last 10 years was 0.4 cm, varying from 0.11 to 1.15 cm. It was observed differences among trees, but there was a tendency of reduction of growth rhythm in larger trees, being more
    evident in trees with more than 110 cm of DBH.A Floresta Ombrófila Mista (FOM é uma das fitofisionomias mais ameaçadas da área de domínio da
    Mata Atlântica, apresentando grande importância ecológico-econômica. Apesar disso, ainda existem lacunas de conhecimento sobre a produtividade primária, o crescimento e a dinâmica de espécies importantes, como a Araucaria angustifolia. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo estudar o crescimento anual de Araucaria angustifolia, nativa do Município de Caçador, SC, pela medição dos anéis de crescimento. A contagem e medição dos anéis de crescimento foram feitas com o auxílio de um microscópio estereoscópico, em baguetas de 0,5 cm de diâmetro, coletadas de 32 árvores adultas. As medições foram feitas com o medidor de anéis de crescimento LINTAB, com precisão de 0,01 mm. O comprimento das amostras

  11. Panel estimation for CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization of newly industrialized countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharif Hossain, Md.

    2011-01-01

    This paper empirically examines the dynamic causal relationships between carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, trade openness and urbanization for the panel of newly industrialized countries (NIC) using the time series data for the period 1971-2007. Using four different panel unit root tests it is found that all panel variables are integrated of order 1. From the Johansen Fisher panel cointegration test it is found that there is a cointegration vector among the variables. The Granger causality test results support that there is no evidence of long-run causal relationship, but there is unidirectional short-run causal relationship from economic growth and trade openness to carbon dioxide emissions, from economic growth to energy consumption, from trade openness to economic growth, from urbanization to economic growth and from trade openness to urbanization. It is found that the long-run elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to energy consumption (1.2189) is higher than short run elasticity of 0.5984. This indicates that over time higher energy consumption in the newly industrialized countries gives rise to more carbon dioxide emissions as a result our environment will be polluted more. But in respect of economic growth, trade openness and urbanization the environmental quality is found to be normal good in the long-run. - Highlights: → Dynamic causal relationships are conducted for different panel variables of NIC. → Test results support only existence of unidirectional short-run causal relationships. → Environment will be polluted more due to energy consumption in the long-run. → But environmental quality is found to be normally good in respect of other variables. → NIC should use solar energy as the substitute of oil to control CO 2 emissions.

  12. Cognitive Reserve Scale and ageing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene León

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The construct of cognitive reserve attempts to explain why some individuals with brain impairment, and some people during normal ageing, can solve cognitive tasks better than expected. This study aimed to estimate cognitive reserve in a healthy sample of people aged 65 years and over, with special attention to its influence on cognitive performance. For this purpose, it used the Cognitive Reserve Scale (CRS and a neuropsychological battery that included tests of attention and memory. The results revealed that women obtained higher total CRS raw scores than men. Moreover, the CRS predicted the learning curve, short-term and long-term memory, but not attentional and working memory performance. Thus, the CRS offers a new proxy of cognitive reserve based on cognitively stimulating activities performed by healthy elderly people. Following an active lifestyle throughout life was associated with better intellectual performance and positive effects on relevant aspects of quality of life.

  13. POOLED ESTIMATES OF INCIDENCE OF ENDOPHTHALMITIS AFTER INTRAVITREAL INJECTION OF ANTI-VASCULAR ENDOTHELIAL GROWTH FACTOR AGENTS WITH AND WITHOUT TOPICAL ANTIBIOTIC PROPHYLAXIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reibaldi, Michele; Pulvirenti, Alfredo; Avitabile, Teresio; Bonfiglio, Vincenza; Russo, Andrea; Mariotti, Cesare; Bucolo, Claudio; Mastropasqua, Rodolfo; Parisi, Guglielmo; Longo, Antonio

    2018-01-01

    To assess the effect of topical antibiotic prophylaxis on postoperative endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents. A systematic literature search was performed from inception to March 2016 using PubMed, Medline, Web of Science, Embase, and the Cochrane Library, to identify articles that reported cases of endophthalmitis after intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents. We used a pooled analysis to estimate the incidence of cases of endophthalmitis who developed after injections performed with and without topical antibiotic prophylaxis. We used regression analysis to explore the effects of study characteristics on heterogeneity. From our search of electronic databases, we identified and screened 4,561 unique records. We judged 60 articles to have reported findings for cohorts of patients who met our inclusion criteria, (12 arms of randomized clinical trials, 11 prospective cohort studies, and 37 retrospective cohort studies), which included 244 cases of endophthalmitis and 639,391 intravitreal injections of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents. The final pooled estimate endophthalmitis proportions were 9/10,000 (95% confidence interval, 7/10,000-12/10,000) in the antibiotic-treated group and 3/10,000 (95% confidence interval, 2/10,000-5/10,000) in the untreated group. The estimated incidence of endophthalmitis with topical antibiotic prophylaxis was approximated three times the incidence without prophylaxis. Random effects regression showed that none of the study characteristics significantly affected the effect size in either group. Topical antibiotic after intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor agents is associated with a higher risk of endophthalmitis.

  14. Estimation of the base temperature and growth phase duration in terms of thermal time for four grapevine cultivars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, D.; Salazar, M.; Chaves, B.; Keller, M.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2015-12-01

    Thermal time models have been used to predict the development of many different species, including grapevine ( Vitis vinifera L.). These models normally assume that there is a linear relationship between temperature and plant development. The goal of this study was to estimate the base temperature and duration in terms of thermal time for predicting veraison for four grapevine cultivars. Historical phenological data for four cultivars that were collected in the Pacific Northwest were used to develop the thermal time model. Base temperatures ( T b) of 0 and 10 °C and the best estimated T b using three different methods were evaluated for predicting veraison in grapevine. Thermal time requirements for each individual cultivar were evaluated through analysis of variance, and means were compared using the Fisher's test. The methods that were applied to estimate T b for the development of wine grapes included the least standard deviation in heat units, the regression coefficient, and the development rate method. The estimated T b varied among methods and cultivars. The development rate method provided the lowest T b values for all cultivars. For the three methods, Chardonnay had the lowest T b ranging from 8.7 to 10.7 °C, while the highest T b values were obtained for Riesling and Cabernet Sauvignon with 11.8 and 12.8 °C, respectively. Thermal time also differed among cultivars, when either the fixed or estimated T b was used. Predictions of the beginning of ripening with the estimated temperature resulted in the lowest variation in real days when compared with predictions using T b = 0 or 10 °C, regardless of the method that was used to estimate the T b.

  15. Schooling and wage income losses due to early-childhood growth faltering in developing countries: national, regional, and global estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fink, Günther; Peet, Evan; Danaei, Goodarz; Andrews, Kathryn; McCoy, Dana Charles; Sudfeld, Christopher R; Smith Fawzi, Mary C; Ezzati, Majid; Fawzi, Wafaie W

    2016-07-01

    The growth of >300 million children purchasing power parity-adjusted exchange rates. At the regional level, economic costs were largest in South Asia ($46.6 billion; 95% CI: $33.3 billion, $61.1 billion), followed by Latin America ($44.7 billion; 95% CI: $19.2 billion, $74.6 billion) and sub-Saharan Africa ($34.2 billion; 95% CI: $24.4 billion, $45.3 billion). Our results indicate that the annual cost of early-childhood growth faltering is substantial. Further investment in scaling up effective interventions in this area is urgently needed and likely to yield long run benefits of $3 for every $1 invested. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  16. Comparison of theoretical estimates and experimental measurements of fatigue crack growth under severe thermal shock conditions (part one - experimental observations)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsh, D.; Green, D.; Parker, R.

    1984-01-01

    This paper reports the results of an experiment in which a severe thermal cycle comprising of alternate upshocks and downshocks has been applied to an axisymmetric feature with an internal, partial penetration weld and crevice. The direction of cracking and crack growth rate were observed experimentally and detailed records made of the thermal cycle. A second part to the paper, reported separately, compares a linear elastic fracture mechanics assessment of the cracking to the experimental observations

  17. Oil, gas field growth projections: Wishful thinking or reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Mast, R.F.; Root, D.H.

    1999-01-01

    The observed `field growth' for the period from 1992 through 1996 with the US Geological Survey's (USGS) predicted field growth for the same period are compared. Known field recovery of field size is defined as the sum of past cumulative field production and the field's proved reserves. Proved reserves are estimated quantities of hydrocarbons which geologic and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to recoverable from known fields under existing economic and operating conditions. Proved reserve estimates calculated with this definition are typically conservative. The modeling approach used by the USGS to characterize `field growth phenomena' is statistical rather that geologic in nature.

  18. The utility of estimating population-level trajectories of terminal wellbeing decline within a growth mixture modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, R A; Byles, J; Magliano, D J; Mitchell, P; Anstey, K J

    2015-03-01

    Mortality-related decline has been identified across multiple domains of human functioning, including mental health and wellbeing. The current study utilised a growth mixture modelling framework to establish whether a single population-level trajectory best describes mortality-related changes in both wellbeing and mental health, or whether subpopulations report quite different mortality-related changes. Participants were older-aged (M = 69.59 years; SD = 8.08 years) deceased females (N = 1,862) from the dynamic analyses to optimise ageing (DYNOPTA) project. Growth mixture models analysed participants' responses on measures of mental health and wellbeing for up to 16 years from death. Multi-level models confirmed overall terminal decline and terminal drop in both mental health and wellbeing. However, modelling data from the same participants within a latent class growth mixture framework indicated that most participants reported stability in mental health (90.3 %) and wellbeing (89.0 %) in the years preceding death. Whilst confirming other population-level analyses which support terminal decline and drop hypotheses in both mental health and wellbeing, we subsequently identified that most of this effect is driven by a small, but significant minority of the population. Instead, most individuals report stable levels of mental health and wellbeing in the years preceding death.

  19. Estimating Short run and Long run Coefficients of Fundamentals Factors with Growth and Momentum Factor: Evidence from Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Shoaib

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the long term relationship of risk premium and fundamental factors in emerging stock markets of China, India and Pakistan keeping in view leading contribution of Fama and French (1992 and Carhart (1997 models. Contrary to the macroeconomic multifactor models, this study incorporates firm-specific risk factors related to the market premium; size (SMB, value (HML, momentum (WML and growth (UMD as determinants of risk premium. The firm-specific growth factor is incorporated based on evidence from Ho, Strange, and Piesse (2008 by employing (UMD which is based on assets to market equity of the firm. Sample of 1198 companies from the three emerging markets for the period of 2001-2013 depicts market risk premium as the leading factor affecting risk premium in Indian and the Pakistani markets. Results reveal market momentum being high enough to overestimate coefficients in the short run. However, the relationship is stabilized and adjusted in the long run. Chinese markets, where all the risk factors seem to play their role to determine risk premium, are relatively much stable and grown-up and clearly represent maturity of the Chinese markets. Distinction between the short run and long run might be useful for the investors of the three emerging economies. According to the principle of high risk associated with high returns, small value happens to deliver higher returns with higher volatility. The growth stocks outperform value stocks in these economies.

  20. Algorithmic decision rules for estimating growth, removals, and mortality within a national-scale forest inventory (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    William H. McWilliams; Carol L. Alerich; William A. Bechtold; Mark Hansen; Christopher M. Oswalt; Mike Thompson; Jeff Turner

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program maintains the National Information Management System (NIMS) that provides the computational framework for the annual forest inventory of the United States. Questions regarding the impact of key elements of programming logic, processing criteria, and estimation procedures...

  1. Gender, "g", and Fixed versus Growth Intelligence Mindsets as Predictors of Self-Estimated Domain Masculine Intelligence (DMIQ)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storek, Josephine; Furnham, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    Over 120 participants completed three timed intelligence tests, a self-estimated Domain Masculine (DMIQ) Intelligence scale, and a mindset "beliefs about intelligence" measure (Dweck, 2012) to examine correlates of the Hubris-Humility Effect (HHE) which shows males believe they are more intelligent than females. As predicted males gave…

  2. Uranium reserves and exploration activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehan, R.J.

    1975-01-01

    The strategy that ERDA plans to employ regarding resource appraisal is outlined. All types of uranium occurrences will be evaluated as sources of domestic ore reserves. Industry's exploration efforts will be compiled. These data will include information on land acquisition and costs, footage drilled and costs, estimates of exploration activities and expenditures, exploration for non-sandstone deposits, exploration in non-established areas, and foreign exploration plans and costs. Typical data in each of these areas are given

  3. Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture–recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Benjamin H.; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B.; Whiteley, Andrew R.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

    2015-01-01

    Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses.We developed an integrated capture–recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival.We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature.Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

  4. BLACK HOLE MASS ESTIMATES AND RAPID GROWTH OF SUPERMASSIVE BLACK HOLES IN LUMINOUS z ∼ 3.5 QUASARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuo, Wenwen; Wu, Xue-Bing [Department of Astronomy, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Fan, Xiaohui; Green, Richard [Steward Observatory, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Wang, Ran [Kavli Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China); Bian, Fuyan [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Mount Stromlo Observatory, Cotter Road, Weston ACT 2611 (Australia)

    2015-02-01

    We present new near-infrared (IR) observations of the Hβ λ4861 and Mg II λ2798 lines for 32 luminous quasars with 3.2 < z < 3.9 using the Palomar Hale 200 inch telescope and the Large Binocular Telescope. We find that the Mg II FWHM is well correlated with the Hβ FWHM, confirming itself as a good substitute for the Hβ FWHM in the black hole mass estimates. The continuum luminosity at 5100 Å well correlates with the continuum luminosity at 3000 Å and the broad emission line luminosities (Hβ and Mg II). With simultaneous near-IR spectroscopy of the Hβ and Mg II lines to exclude the influences of flux variability, we are able to evaluate the reliability of estimating black hole masses based on the Mg II line for high redshift quasars. With the reliable Hβ line based black hole mass and Eddington ratio estimates, we find that the z ∼ 3.5 quasars in our sample have black hole masses 1.90 × 10{sup 9} M {sub ☉} ≲ M {sub BH} ≲ 1.37 × 10{sup 10} M {sub ☉}, with a median of ∼5.14 × 10{sup 9} M {sub ☉} and are accreting at Eddington ratios between 0.30 and 3.05, with a median of ∼1.12. Assuming a duty cycle of 1 and a seed black hole mass of 10{sup 4} M {sub ☉}, we show that the z ∼ 3.5 quasars in this sample can grow to their estimated black hole masses within the age of the universe at their redshifts.

  5. Response of insect relative growth rate to temperature and host-plant phenology: estimation and validation from field data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamadou Ciss

    Full Text Available Between 1975 to 2011, aphid Relative Growth Rates (RGR were modelled as a function of mean outdoor temperature and host plant phenology. The model was applied to the grain aphid Sitobion avenae using data on aphid counts in winter wheat at two different climate regions in France (oceanic climate, Rennes (western France; continental climate, Paris. Mean observed aphid RGR was higher in Paris compared to the Rennes region. RGR increased with mean temperature, which is explained by aphid reproduction, growth and development being dependent on ambient temperature. From the stem extension to the heading stage in wheat, there was either a plateau in RGR values (Rennes or an increase with a maximum at heading (Paris due to high intrinsic rates of increase in aphids and also to aphid immigration. From the wheat flowering to the ripening stage, RGR decreased in both regions due to the low intrinsic rate of increase in aphids and high emigration rate linked to reduced nutrient quality in maturing wheat. The model validation process showed that the fitted models have more predictive power in the Paris region than in the Rennes region.

  6. Reserving by detailed conditioning on individual claim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi; Effendie, Adhitya Ronnie; Wilandari, Yuciana

    2017-03-01

    The estimation of claim reserves is an important activity in insurance companies to fulfill their liabilities. Recently, reserving method of individual claim have attracted a lot of interest in the actuarial science, which overcome some deficiency of aggregated claim method. This paper explores the Reserving by Detailed Conditioning (RDC) method using all of claim information for reserving with individual claim of liability insurance from an Indonesian general insurance company. Furthermore, we compare it to Chain Ladder and Bornhuetter-Ferguson method.

  7. HYDROCARBONS RESERVES IN VENEZUELA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gonzalez Cruz, D.J.

    2007-07-01

    Venezuela is an important player in the energy world, because of its hydrocarbons reserves. The process for calculating oil and associated gas reserves is described bearing in mind that 90% of the gas reserves of Venezuela are associated to oil. Likewise, an analysis is made of the oil reserves figures from 1975 to 2003. Reference is also made to inconsistencies found by international experts and the explanations offered in this respect by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum (MENPET) and Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) regarding the changes that took place in the 1980s. In turn, Hubbert's Law is explained to determine peak production of conventional oil that a reservoir or field will reach, as well as its relationship with remaining reserves. Emphasis is placed on the interest of the United Nations on this topic. The reserves of associated gas are presented along with their relationship with the different crude oils that are produced and with injected gas, as well as with respect to the possible changes that would take place in the latter if oil reserves are revised. Some recommendations are submitted so that the MENPET starts preparing the pertinent policies ruling reserves. (auth)

  8. Bacterial production and growth rate estimation from [3H]thymidine incorporation for attached and free-living bacteria in aquatic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iriberri, J.; Unanue, M.; Ayo, B.; Barcina, I.; Egea, L.

    1990-01-01

    Production and specific growth rates of attached and free-living bacteria were estimated in an oligotrophic marine system, La Salvaje Beach, Vizcaya, Spain, and in a freshwater system having a higher nutrient concentration, Butron River, Vizcaya, Spain. Production was calculated from [methyl- 3 H]thymidine incorporation by estimating specific conversion factors (cells or micrograms of C produced per mole of thymidine incorporated) for attached and free-living bacteria, respectively, in each system. Conversion factors were not statistically different between attached and free-living bacteria: 6.812 x 10 11 and 8.678 x 10 11 μg of C mol -1 for free-living and attached bacteria in the freshwater system, and 1.276 x 10 11 and 1.354 x 10 11 μg of C mol -1 for free-living and attached bacteria in the marine system. Therefore, use of a unique conversion factor for the mixed bacterial population is well founded. However, conversion factors were higher in the freshwater system than in the marine system. This could be due to the different tropic conditions of the two systems. Free-living bacteria contributed the most to production in the two systems (85% in the marine system and 67% in the freshwater system) because of their greater contribution to total biomass. Specific growth rates calculated from production data and biomass data were similar for attached and free-living bacteria

  9. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

  10. Panel estimation for renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth, CO2 emissions, the composite trade intensity, and financial openness of the commonwealth of independent states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan; Saboori, Behnaz

    2018-04-13

    This article investigates the long-run and causal linkages between economic growth, CO 2 emissions, renewable and non-renewable (fossil fuels) energy consumption, the Composite Trade Intensity (CTI) as a proxy for trade openness, and the Chinn-Ito index as a proxy for financial openness for a panel of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan over the period of 1992-2015. It is the first time that CTI and the Chinn-Ito indexes are used in an economic-pollution model. Employing three panel unit root tests, panel cointegration estimation methods (DOLS and FMOLS), and two panel causality tests, the main empirical results provided evidence for the bidirectional long-run relationship between all the variables in all 12 sampled countries except for economic growth-renewable energy use linkage. The findings of causality tests indicated that there is a unidirectional short-run panel causality running from economic growth, financial openness, and trade openness to CO 2 emissions and from fossil fuel energy consumption to renewable energy use.

  11. Skyline Reservation System

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — Flight reservation application used for in-country flights by USAID and DoS staff in Afghanistan. The application is managed and maintained by the vendor and USAID...

  12. Direct and maternal genetic effects for preweaning growth in Retinta cattle estimated by a longitudinal approach throughout the calving trajectory of the cow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, R; Menéndez-Buxadera, A; Avilés, C; Molina, A

    2013-12-01

    The direct and maternal genetic effects were estimated for the preweaning growth of Retinta calves with a multitrait model across parities, using a longitudinal approach with random regression models (RRM). The 120 (P120) and 180 days (P180) weights (5972 calves) were considered as different traits in each calving. The heritability of direct effect across parities was on average 0.37 for P120 and 0.58 for P180, slightly higher than the estimates by univariate (0.30 and 0.56) and bivariate models (0.30 and 0.51, respectively). The heritability for maternal effects was 0.16 for P120 and 0.26 for P180 and very similar by uni- (0.16 and 0.23) and multivariate model (0.16 and 0.22, respectively). The correlation between direct and maternal effects by RRM showed a pronounced antagonism -0.64 for P120 and -0.78 for P180), likewise uni- (-0.62 and -0.72) and multivariate case (-0.64 and -0.74, respectively). The preweaning weights should be considered as different traits across parities, because the genetic correlations were different from unity. The RRM also allowed us to estimate all the parameters throughout the calving trajectory of the cow. The use of multiple traits RRM across parities can provide very useful information for the breeding programmes. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  13. Financial Security and Optimal Scale of Foreign Exchange Reserve in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangyou Zhou

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The study of how foreign exchange reserves maintain financial security is of vital significance. This paper provides simulations and estimations of the optimal scale of foreign exchange reserves under the background of possible shocks to China’s economy due to the further opening of China’s financial market and the sudden stop of capital inflows. Focused on the perspective of financial security, this article tentatively constructs an optimal scale analysis framework that is based on a utility maximization of the foreign exchange reserve, and selects relevant data to simulate the optimal scale of China’s foreign exchange reserves. The results show that: (1 the main reason for the fast growth of the Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale is the structural trouble of its double international payment surplus, which creates long-term appreciation expectations for the exchange rate that make it difficult for international capital inflows and excess foreign exchange reserves to enter the real economic growth mechanism under the model of China’s export-driven economy growth; (2 the average optimal scale of the foreign exchange reserve in case of the sudden stop of capital inflows was calculated through parameter estimation and numerical simulation to be 13.53% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP between 1994 and 2017; (3 with the function of the foreign exchange reserves changing from meeting basic transaction demands to meeting financial security demands, the effect of the foreign exchange reserve maintaining the state’s financial security is becoming more and more obvious. Therefore, the structure of foreign exchange reserve assets should be optimized in China, and we will give full play to the special role of foreign exchange reserve in safeguarding a country’s financial security.

  14. Electrophoretic analysis of different human growth hormone preparations:characterization and molecular weight estimation of isohormones and other proteic components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwarz, I.

    1979-01-01

    Twelve human growth hormone (hGH) preparations were studied on analytical polyacrilamide gel electrophoresis with the purpose of evaluating degree of homogeneity of the extracts, the geometric mean radius (R) sup(-) and the molecular weight (MW) of the protein hormone. A standard curve was used for ten proteins of known molecular weight, where the square root of the retardation coefficient (K sub(R)) was plotted against R sup(-). Five isohormones were identified and defined as charge isomers, based on their different relative free mobility and on their similar R sup(-)(1.81-1.97 nm) and MW (20300-26000 d) values. The heterogeneity of all preparations was due to the presence in general of three isohormones. In five preparations, isohormones B, C 1 and C 2 , were predominant. In recent hGH (IEA) preparations by the method of ROOS, the isohormones C 2 , D and E were identified while in an older one, isohormones E and E 1 were detected. From two to five minor components were found in all samples. Moreover the same type of analysis was carried out on several fractions from protein peaks II and III eluting from Sephadex G 100 purification of three hGH (IEA) extracts. The isohormones start to appear in peak II and their relative concentration is in agreement with the peak III profile read at 280 nm. Practically all secondary components were present in peak II and in most of peak III, showing a type of heterogeneity due to hGH polymeric forms and a relatively small presence of contaminants. (Author) [pt

  15. Estimating the Effect of Urban Growth on Annual Runoff Volume Using GIS in the Erbil Sub-Basin of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasan Mohammed Hameed

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The growth and spread of impervious surfaces within urbanizing catchment areas pose signiificant threats to the quality of natural and built-up environments. Impervious surfaces prevent water infiltration into the soil, resulting in increased runoff generation. The Erbil Sub-basin was selected because the impervious cover is increasing rapidly and is affecting the hydrological condition of the watershed. The overall aim of this study is to examine the impact of urban growth and other changes in land use on runoff response during the study period of 1984 to 2014. The study describes long-term hydrologic responses within the rapidly developing catchment area of Erbil city, in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Data from six rainfall stations in and around the Erbil Sub-basin were used. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM was also used to extract the distribution of the drainage network. Historical levels of urban growth and the corresponding impervious areas, as well as land use/land cover changes were mapped from 1984 to 2014 using a temporal satellite image (Landsat to determine land use/land cover changes. Land use/land cover was combined with a hydrological model (SCS-CN to estimate the volume of runoff from the watershed. The study indicates that the urbanization of the watershed has increased the impervious land cover by 71% for the period from 1984 to 2004 and by 51% from 2004 to 2014. The volume of runoff was 85% higher in 2014 as compared to 1984 due to the increase in the impervious surface area; this is attributed to urban growth. The study also points out that the slope of the watershed in the Erbil sub-basin should be taken into account in surface runoff estimation as the upstream part of the watershed has a high gradient and the land is almost barren with very little vegetation cover; this causes an increase in the velocity of the flow and increases the risk of flooding in Erbil city.

  16. Brazilian uranium reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.

    1981-01-01

    Due to a growing demand of electric power to support Brasil's development, the use of nuclear energy will be indispensable. The nuclear fuel cycle for the production of energy, starts with the uranium exploration. The work performed in this field led to the discovery of several deposits in the country, which to-date totalize a reserve of 236,300t of U 308 , ranking Brazil in the 6th place among the nations of the western world holding uranium reserves. (Author) [pt

  17. First estimates of the contribution of CaCO3 precipitation to the release of CO2 to the atmosphere during young sea ice growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geilfus, N.-X.; Carnat, G.; Dieckmann, G. S.; Halden, N.; Nehrke, G.; Papakyriakou, T.; Tison, J.-L.; Delille, B.

    2013-01-01

    report measurements of pH, total alkalinity, air-ice CO2 fluxes (chamber method), and CaCO3 content of frost flowers (FF) and thin landfast sea ice. As the temperature decreases, concentration of solutes in the brine skim increases. Along this gradual concentration process, some salts reach their solubility threshold and start precipitating. The precipitation of ikaite (CaCO3.6H2O) was confirmed in the FF and throughout the ice by Raman spectroscopy and X-ray analysis. The amount of ikaite precipitated was estimated to be 25 µmol kg-1 melted FF, in the FF and is shown to decrease from 19 to 15 µmol kg-1 melted ice in the upper part and at the bottom of the ice, respectively. CO2 release due to precipitation of CaCO3 is estimated to be 50 µmol kg-1 melted samples. The dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) normalized to a salinity of 10 exhibits significant depletion in the upper layer of the ice and in the FF. This DIC loss is estimated to be 2069 µmol kg-1 melted sample and corresponds to a CO2 release from the ice to the atmosphere ranging from 20 to 40 mmol m-2 d-1. This estimate is consistent with flux measurements of air-ice CO2 exchange. Our measurements confirm previous laboratory findings that growing young sea ice acts as a source of CO2 to the atmosphere. CaCO3 precipitation during early ice growth appears to promote the release of CO2 to the atmosphere; however, its contribution to the overall release by newly formed ice is most likely minor.

  18. Session 7: Reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, R.; Crockford, G.

    2001-01-01

    The reserve session was devoted to some issues that came up through the workshop, which were grouped into three main areas: The Global Accelerator Network, Problems of stress and how to get organized to minimize them, What should an operations group be responsible for? This paper summarizes the discussions that took place. (author)

  19. SUIKERBOSRAND NATURE RESERVE

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    reserve, the total length being 66 km with six overnight huts. There are also the BokmakiePie. Nature Troil. and the Cheetah Interpretive Troil. which can be used by day visitors. The former has two loops, one of 10 km and another of 17 km. The. Cheetah Troil. is much shorter and various points of interest are interpreted en ...

  20. School Shootings Stun Reservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borja, Rhea R.; Cavanagh, Sean

    2005-01-01

    This article deals with the impact brought by the school shootings at Red Lake Indian Reservation in Minnesota to the school community. A deeply troubled 16-year-old student shot and killed seven other people and himself at a high school. The nation's deadliest school attack since the 1999 slayings at Colorado's suburban Columbine High School took…

  1. Uranium reserves fall: AAEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1982-01-01

    Figures released by the AAEC show that Australia's reasonably assured resources of uranium recoverable at US$80 a kg fell by 5,000 tonnes during 1980-81. Reserves at 30 June 1981 totalled 294,000 tonnes. This represented 17 per cent of the Western World's low cost reasonably assured resources

  2. IGT calculates world reserves of fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1986-01-01

    The Institute of Gas Technology has published the IGT World Reserves Survey, giving their latest tabulation of world reserves of fossil fuels and uranium. The report contains 120 Tables and 41 Figures. Estimates are provided for proved reserves, resources, current production, and life indexes of the non-renewable energy sources of the US and of the world as a whole. World regional data are also provided in many cases. The data are summarized here. 2 figures, 5 tables

  3. All rights reserved

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    ABSTRACT: The influence of weather in all aspects of human endeavours is evident in the recorded loss of lives and properties .... forecasting the rain, frost and fog formation as well as ... 2017). The trend graphs of relative humidity and the ... equation was obtained using the curve estimation .... empirical regression models.

  4. Communication: Estimating the initial biasing potential for λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) simulations via slow growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bieler, Noah S.; Hünenberger, Philippe H.

    2014-01-01

    In a recent article [Bieler et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 3006–3022 (2014)], we introduced a combination of the λ-dynamics (λD) approach for calculating alchemical free-energy differences and of the local-elevation umbrella-sampling (LEUS) memory-based biasing method to enhance the sampling along the alchemical coordinate. The combined scheme, referred to as λ-LEUS, was applied to the perturbation of hydroquinone to benzene in water as a test system, and found to represent an improvement over thermodynamic integration (TI) in terms of sampling efficiency at equivalent accuracy. However, the preoptimization of the biasing potential required in the λ-LEUS method requires “filling up” all the basins in the potential of mean force. This introduces a non-productive pre-sampling time that is system-dependent, and generally exceeds the corresponding equilibration time in a TI calculation. In this letter, a remedy is proposed to this problem, termed the slow growth memory guessing (SGMG) approach. Instead of initializing the biasing potential to zero at the start of the preoptimization, an approximate potential of mean force is estimated from a short slow growth calculation, and its negative used to construct the initial memory. Considering the same test system as in the preceding article, it is shown that of the application of SGMG in λ-LEUS permits to reduce the preoptimization time by about a factor of four

  5. Communication: Estimating the initial biasing potential for λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) simulations via slow growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bieler, Noah S.; Hünenberger, Philippe H., E-mail: phil@igc.phys.chem.ethz.ch [Laboratory of Physical Chemistry, ETH Zürich, CH-8093 Zürich (Switzerland)

    2014-11-28

    In a recent article [Bieler et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 3006–3022 (2014)], we introduced a combination of the λ-dynamics (λD) approach for calculating alchemical free-energy differences and of the local-elevation umbrella-sampling (LEUS) memory-based biasing method to enhance the sampling along the alchemical coordinate. The combined scheme, referred to as λ-LEUS, was applied to the perturbation of hydroquinone to benzene in water as a test system, and found to represent an improvement over thermodynamic integration (TI) in terms of sampling efficiency at equivalent accuracy. However, the preoptimization of the biasing potential required in the λ-LEUS method requires “filling up” all the basins in the potential of mean force. This introduces a non-productive pre-sampling time that is system-dependent, and generally exceeds the corresponding equilibration time in a TI calculation. In this letter, a remedy is proposed to this problem, termed the slow growth memory guessing (SGMG) approach. Instead of initializing the biasing potential to zero at the start of the preoptimization, an approximate potential of mean force is estimated from a short slow growth calculation, and its negative used to construct the initial memory. Considering the same test system as in the preceding article, it is shown that of the application of SGMG in λ-LEUS permits to reduce the preoptimization time by about a factor of four.

  6. To what degree does the missing-data technique influence the estimated growth in learning strategies over time? A tutorial example of sensitivity analysis for longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coertjens, Liesje; Donche, Vincent; De Maeyer, Sven; Vanthournout, Gert; Van Petegem, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Longitudinal data is almost always burdened with missing data. However, in educational and psychological research, there is a large discrepancy between methodological suggestions and research practice. The former suggests applying sensitivity analysis in order to the robustness of the results in terms of varying assumptions regarding the mechanism generating the missing data. However, in research practice, participants with missing data are usually discarded by relying on listwise deletion. To help bridge the gap between methodological recommendations and applied research in the educational and psychological domain, this study provides a tutorial example of sensitivity analysis for latent growth analysis. The example data concern students' changes in learning strategies during higher education. One cohort of students in a Belgian university college was asked to complete the Inventory of Learning Styles-Short Version, in three measurement waves. A substantial number of students did not participate on each occasion. Change over time in student learning strategies was assessed using eight missing data techniques, which assume different mechanisms for missingness. The results indicated that, for some learning strategy subscales, growth estimates differed between the models. Guidelines in terms of reporting the results from sensitivity analysis are synthesised and applied to the results from the tutorial example.

  7. Accuracy of dental development for estimating the pubertal growth spurt in comparison to skeletal development: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittencourt, MarcosAlan Vieira; Cericato, GrazielaOro; Franco, Ademir; Girão, RafaelaSilva; Lima, Anderson Paulo Barbosa; Paranhos, LuizRenato

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to search for scientific evidence concerning the accuracy of dental development for estimating the pubertal growth spurt. It was conducted according to the statements of PRISMA. An electronic search was performed in six databases, including the grey literature. The PICOS strategy was used to define the eligibility criteria and only observational studies were selected. Out of 1,416 identified citations, 10 articles fulfilled the criteria and were included in this systematic review. The association between dental development and skeletal maturity was considered strong in seven studies, and moderate in two, although the association with the pubertal growth spurt had been verified in only four articles. According to half of the studies, the tooth that provided the greater association with the ossification centres was the lower canine. The meta-analysis performed also indicated a positive association, being stronger in females [0.725 (0.649-0.808)]. However, when the method used for dental evaluation was considered, it was possible to verify greater correlation coefficients for Nolla [0.736 (0.666-0.814)] than for Demirjian [0.631 (0.450-0.884)], at the boys sample. The heterogeneity test reached high values (Q = 51.00), suggesting a potential bias within the studies. Most of individual studies suggested a strong correlation between dental development and skeletal maturation, although the association with the peakof pubertal growth spurtwas clearly cited only in some of them. However, due to the high heterogeneity found among the studies included in this meta-analysis, a pragmatic recommendation about the use of dental stages is not possible.

  8. Reserve selection with land market feedbacks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butsic, Van; Lewis, David J; Radeloff, Volker C

    2013-01-15

    How to best site reserves is a leading question for conservation biologists. Recently, reserve selection has emphasized efficient conservation: maximizing conservation goals given the reality of limited conservation budgets, and this work indicates that land market can potentially undermine the conservation benefits of reserves by increasing property values and development probabilities near reserves. Here we propose a reserve selection methodology which optimizes conservation given both a budget constraint and land market feedbacks by using a combination of econometric models along with stochastic dynamic programming. We show that amenity based feedbacks can be accounted for in optimal reserve selection by choosing property price and land development models which exogenously estimate the effects of reserve establishment. In our empirical example, we use previously estimated models of land development and property prices to select parcels to maximize coarse woody debris along 16 lakes in Vilas County, WI, USA. Using each lake as an independent experiment, we find that including land market feedbacks in the reserve selection algorithm has only small effects on conservation efficacy. Likewise, we find that in our setting heuristic (minloss and maxgain) algorithms perform nearly as well as the optimal selection strategy. We emphasize that land market feedbacks can be included in optimal reserve selection; the extent to which this improves reserve placement will likely vary across landscapes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. World Health Organization estimates of the global and regional disease burden of four foodborne chemical toxins, 2010: a data synthesis [version 1; referees: 2 approved, 1 approved with reservations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herman Gibb

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Chemical exposures have been associated with a variety of health effects; however, little is known about the global disease burden from foodborne chemicals. Food can be a major pathway for the general population’s exposure to chemicals, and for some chemicals, it accounts for almost 100% of exposure.  Methods and Findings Groups of foodborne chemicals, both natural and anthropogenic, were evaluated for their ability to contribute to the burden of disease.  The results of the analyses on four chemicals are presented here - cyanide in cassava, peanut allergen, aflatoxin, and dioxin.  Systematic reviews of the literature were conducted to develop age- and sex-specific disease incidence and mortality estimates due to these chemicals.  From these estimates, the numbers of cases, deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs were calculated.  For these four chemicals combined, the total number of illnesses, deaths, and DALYs in 2010 is estimated to be 339,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 186,000-1,239,000; 20,000 (95% UI: 8,000-52,000; and 1,012,000 (95% UI: 562,000-2,822,000, respectively.  Both cyanide in cassava and aflatoxin are associated with diseases with high case-fatality ratios.  Virtually all human exposure to these four chemicals is through the food supply.  Conclusion Chemicals in the food supply, as evidenced by the results for only four chemicals, can have a significant impact on the global burden of disease. The case-fatality rates for these four chemicals range from low (e.g., peanut allergen to extremely high (aflatoxin and liver cancer.  The effects associated with these four chemicals are neurologic (cyanide in cassava, cancer (aflatoxin, allergic response (peanut allergen, endocrine (dioxin, and reproductive (dioxin.

  10. On the potential for a CO2 fertilization effect in forest trees: An assessment of 58 controlled-exposure studies and estimates of the biotic growth factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wullschleger, S.D.; Post, W.M.; King, A.W.

    1992-01-01

    Characterizing the response of terrestrial ecosystems to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO 2 and estimating their biological capacity to either moderate or accelerate predicted changes in the earth's climate, continues to present a formidable challenge to experimentalist and modelers alike. Nevertheless, it is generally recognized that the carbon dynamics of terrestrial vegetation represent an important biospheric feedback to increasing CO 2 concentrations, and hence to global warming, and as such there exists little debate that ecosystems occupy a.potentially pivotal role in determining both the direction and rate of future changes in atmospheric CO 2 concentration. What is currently the subject of much debate, however, is whether terrestrial ecosystems will contribute to global warming by releasing additional CO 2 the atmosphere as a result of increasing respiration and/or decomposition in a warming climate, or whether they will instead sequester additional carbon in response to the enhancing effects of atmospheric CO 2 on plant growth. This latter response, the so-called CO 2 fertilization effect, has been hypothesized as an important negative feedback to global warming, offering the potential to constrain future increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and has often been invoked to either partially or wholly account for the estimated 1.6 Gt C/year imbalance or ''missing sink'' in calculations of the global carbon budget

  11. Status of fossil fuel reserves; Etat des reserves des combustibles fossiles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, J

    2005-07-01

    Reserves represent the sum of past and future productions up to the end of production. In most countries the reserve data of fields are confidential. Therefore, fossil fuel reserves are badly known because the published data are more political than technical and many countries make a confusion between resources and reserves. The cumulated production of fossil fuels represents only between a third and a fifth of the ultimate reserves. The production peak will take place between 2020 and 2050. In the ultimate reserves, which extrapolate the past, the fossil fuels represent three thirds of the overall energy. This document analyses the uncertainties linked with fossil fuel reserves: reliability of published data, modeling of future production, comparison with other energy sources, energy consumption forecasts, reserves/production ratio, exploitation of non-conventional hydrocarbons (tar sands, extra-heavy oils, bituminous shales, coal gas, gas shales, methane in overpressure aquifers, methane hydrates), technology impacts, prices impact, and reserves growth. (J.S.)

  12. Fractional Reserve Banking

    OpenAIRE

    Andreasen, Niels; Bjerregaard, Mads; Lund, Jonas; Olsen, Ove Bitsch; Rasmussen, Andreas Dalgas

    2012-01-01

    Projektet er bygget op omkring kritisk realisme, som er det gennemgående videnskabelige fundament til undersøgelsen af hvilke strukturelle grunde der er til finansiel ustabilitet i Danmark. Projektet går i dybden med Fractional Reserve Banking og incitamentsstrukturen i banksystemet. Vi bevæger os både på det makro- og mikroøkonomiske niveau i analysen. På makro niveau bruger vi den østrigske skole om konjunktur teori (The Positive Theory of the Cycle). På mikro niveau arbejder vi med princip...

  13. Economic growth and the reform of the judicial system of Bulgaria in the period 2000-2015 (vision for a new measurement model). IDEAS Working Paper Series from RePEc N72919, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, USA

    OpenAIRE

    Nozharov, Shteryo

    2015-01-01

    Abstract: The publication proposes a concept for new model for evaluation of the “reform of the judicial system”, different from those applied by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund where the economic growth rate of each country is measured. Their models, based on performance indicators, examine the “reform of the judicial system” as constant and floating in time, evaluated in certain periods of time. This fact obstructs the identification of the relative legislative miscarriag...

  14. Required reserves as a credit policy tool

    OpenAIRE

    Mimir, Yasin; Sunel, Enes; Taskin, Temel

    2012-01-01

    This paper conducts a quantitative investigation of the role of reserve requirements as a macroprudential policy tool. We build a monetary DSGE model with a banking sector in which (i) an agency problem between households and banks leads to endogenous capital constraints for banks in obtaining funds from households, (ii) banks are subject to time-varying reserve requirements that countercyclically respond to expected credit growth, (iii) households face cash-in-advance constraints, requiring ...

  15. Combining Remote Sensing imagery of both fine and coarse spatial resolution to Estimate Crop Evapotranspiration and quantifying its Influence on Crop Growth Monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulcre-Cantó, Guadalupe; Gellens-Meulenberghs, Françoise; Arboleda, Alirio; Duveiller, Gregory; Piccard, Isabelle; de Wit, Allard; Tychon, Bernard; Bakary, Djaby; Defourny, Pierre

    2010-05-01

    This study has been carried out in the framework of the GLOBAM -Global Agricultural Monitoring system by integration of earth observation and modeling techniques- project whose objective is to fill the methodological gap between the state of the art of local crop monitoring and the operational requirements of the global monitoring system programs. To achieve this goal, the research aims to develop an integrated approach using remote sensing and crop growth modeling. Evapotranspiration (ET) is a valuable parameter in the crop monitoring context since it provides information on the plant water stress status, which strongly influences crop development and, by extension, crop yield. To assess crop evapotranspiration over the GLOBAM study areas (300x300 km sites in Northern Europe and Central Ethiopia), a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model forced with remote sensing and numerical weather prediction data has been used. This model runs at pre-operational level in the framework of the EUMETSAT LSA-SAF (Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility) using SEVIRI and ECMWF data, as well as the ECOCLIMAP database to characterize the vegetation. The model generates ET images at the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) spatial resolution (3 km at subsatellite point),with a temporal resolution of 30 min and monitors the entire MSG disk which covers Europe, Africa and part of Sud America . The SVAT model was run for 2007 using two approaches. The first approach is at the standard pre-operational mode. The second incorporates remote sensing information at various spatial resolutions going from LANDSAT (30m) to SEVIRI (3-5 km) passing by AWIFS (56m) and MODIS (250m). Fine spatial resolution data consists of crop type classification which enable to identify areas where pure crop specific MODIS time series can be compiled and used to derive Leaf Area Index estimations for the most important crops (wheat and maize). The use of this information allowed to characterize

  16. An economical non-destructive method for estimating eelgrass, Zostera marina (Potamogetonaceae leaf growth rates: formal development and use in northwestern Baja California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Solana-Arellano

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Seagrass beds provide much of the primary production in estuaries; host many fishes and fish larvae, and abate erosion. The present study presents original analytical methods for estimating mean leaf-growth rates of eelgrass (Zostera marina. The method was calibrated by using data collected in a Z. marina meadow at Punta Banda estuary in Baja California, Mexico. The analytical assessments were based on measurements of leaf length and standard regression procedures. We present a detailed explanation of the formal procedures involved in the derivation of these analytical methods. The measured daily leaf-growth rate was 10.9 mm d-1 leaf-1. The corresponding value projected by our method was 10.2 mm d-1 leaf-1. The associated standard errors were of 0.53 and 0.56 mm d-1 leaf-1 respectively. The method was validated by projecting leaf-growth rates from an independent data set, which gave consistent results. The use of the method to obtain the mean leaf growth rate of a transplanted plot is also illustrated. Comparison of our leaf-growth data with previously reported assessments show the significant forcing of sea-surface temperature on eelgrass leaf dynamics. The formal constructs provided here are of general scope and can be applied to equivalent eelgrass data sets in a straightforward manner. Rev. Biol. Trop. 56 (3: 1003-1013. Epub 2008 September 30.Las praderas de pastos marinos abaten la erosión y aportan gran parte de la productividad primaria de los esteros y son refugio de muchos peces y sus larvas. El presente trabajo introduce métodos analíticos para estimar las tasas medias de crecimiento foliar de Zostera marina L. y sus varianzas. La calibración del método se llevó a cabo utilizando datos de una pradera de esta fanerógama en el Estero de Punta Banda Baja California, México. Las referidas estimaciones analíticas, se basan en medias de longitud foliar y en procedimientos estandarizados de regresión. Dichas determinaciones son por

  17. A General Business Model for Marine Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sala, Enric; Costello, Christopher; Dougherty, Dawn; Heal, Geoffrey; Kelleher, Kieran; Murray, Jason H.; Rosenberg, Andrew A.; Sumaila, Rashid

    2013-01-01

    Marine reserves are an effective tool for protecting biodiversity locally, with potential economic benefits including enhancement of local fisheries, increased tourism, and maintenance of ecosystem services. However, fishing communities often fear short-term income losses associated with closures, and thus may oppose marine reserves. Here we review empirical data and develop bioeconomic models to show that the value of marine reserves (enhanced adjacent fishing + tourism) may often exceed the pre-reserve value, and that economic benefits can offset the costs in as little as five years. These results suggest the need for a new business model for creating and managing reserves, which could pay for themselves and turn a profit for stakeholder groups. Our model could be expanded to include ecosystem services and other benefits, and it provides a general framework to estimate costs and benefits of reserves and to develop such business models. PMID:23573192

  18. Substantiating the Incurred but not Reported Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta Vintilã

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to handle past and future liability taken by insurance contracts concluded, any insurance company must constitute and maintain technical reserves. Substantiating technical reserves is done through actuarial methods and its over-evaluation or under-evaluation influence solvency and financial performance of the insurance companies, in the sense of reducing solvency through over-evaluating reserves and, respectively, influencing profit (hence of outstanding tax through under-evaluating reserves. An important reserve for insurance companies is represented by the incurred but not reported reserve, as it allows the estimation of the liability the company may confront in the future, generated by events occurred in the past, which are not currently known in the present but will be reported in the future.

  19. Are uranium reserves adequate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2006-01-01

    Against a backdrop of growing concerns about global warming and geopolitical pressures on fossil energies, especially natural gas and oil, interest in nuclear power has revived considerably. Conscious of its addiction to oil and reeling from a series of gigantic blackouts, the United States, in the words of its president, must 'aggressively move forward with the construction of nuclear power plants'. Some European countries have approved new power plant construction (Finland and France), while the more reserved ones (Belgium, Germany and Sweden) have begun to show a change in attitude. Asia, meanwhile, is host to the planet's largest number of potential nuclear construction projects in this first half of the 21. century. All these signs point to a sharp rise in uranium consumption, the basic fuel for these plants. But are there enough resources to support a nuclear revival on a planetary scale? The publication of the Red Book on uranium in late May 2006 was an opportunity for Thierry Dujardin, Deputy Director of Science and Development at the OECD's Nuclear Energy Agency, to take stock of resources. He gives his opinion in this paper

  20. Genomic prediction using different estimation methodology, blending and cross-validation techniques for growth traits and visual scores in Hereford and Braford cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos, G S; Reimann, F A; Cardoso, L L; Ferreira, C E R; Junqueira, V S; Schmidt, P I; Braccini Neto, J; Yokoo, M J I; Sollero, B P; Boligon, A A; Cardoso, F F

    2018-05-07

    The objective of the present study was to evaluate the accuracy and bias of direct and blended genomic predictions using different methods and cross-validation techniques for growth traits (weight and weight gains) and visual scores (conformation, precocity, muscling and size) obtained at weaning and at yearling in Hereford and Braford breeds. Phenotypic data contained 126,290 animals belonging to the Delta G Connection genetic improvement program, and a set of 3,545 animals genotyped with the 50K chip and 131 sires with the 777K. After quality control, 41,045 markers remained for all animals. An animal model was used to estimate (co)variances components and to predict breeding values, which were later used to calculate the deregressed estimated breeding values (DEBV). Animals with genotype and phenotype for the traits studied were divided into four or five groups by random and k-means clustering cross-validation strategies. The values of accuracy of the direct genomic values (DGV) were moderate to high magnitude for at weaning and at yearling traits, ranging from 0.19 to 0.45 for the k-means and 0.23 to 0.78 for random clustering among all traits. The greatest gain in relation to the pedigree BLUP (PBLUP) was 9.5% with the BayesB method with both the k-means and the random clustering. Blended genomic value accuracies ranged from 0.19 to 0.56 for k-means and from 0.21 to 0.82 for random clustering. The analyzes using the historical pedigree and phenotypes contributed additional information to calculate the GEBV and in general, the largest gains were for the single-step (ssGBLUP) method in bivariate analyses with a mean increase of 43.00% among all traits measured at weaning and of 46.27% for those evaluated at yearling. The accuracy values for the marker effects estimation methods were lower for k-means clustering, indicating that the training set relationship to the selection candidates is a major factor affecting accuracy of genomic predictions. The gains in

  1. Implication of World Health Organization growth standards on estimation of malnutrition in young Chinese children: Two examples from rural western China and the Tibet region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Shaonong; Yan, Hong; Wang, Duolao

    2014-12-01

    The aim of this study was to determine how malnutrition rates change in young Chinese children when 2006 World Health Organization (WHO) growth standards are used instead of 1978 WHO/National Center for Health Statistics reference. Cross-sectional survey data were used from rural western China and the Tibet region. The heights and weights of children of children was assessed by two references. Using 2006 reference instead of 1978 reference, the prevalence of stunting increased significantly (17.9% vs. 12.3% in rural western China and 37.5% vs. 28.1% in rural Tibet). The prevalence of underweight was lower in rural western China (7.7% vs. 11.7%) than rural Tibet (13.1% vs. 15.3%). For all ages, the prevalence of stunting increased and the greatest relative increase appeared in the first six months (102.9% in rural western China vs. 134.9% in rural Tibet). With respect to underweight, the relative increase occurred only during the first six months (314.3% in rural western China vs. 48.1% in rural Tibet); however, the reduction was observed in other age groups. For young Chinese Han and Tibetan children, the difference in estimation of malnutrition between two references differed in magnitude. The scale of change in the prevalence rates of stunting and underweight is much greater when 2006 reference was introduced. © The Author(s) 2013.

  2. Prevalence and characteristics of women at risk for an alcohol-exposed pregnancy (AEP) in the United States: estimates from the National Survey of Family Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannon, Michael J; Guo, Jing; Denny, Clark H; Green, Patricia P; Miracle, Heidi; Sniezek, Joseph E; Floyd, R Louise

    2015-04-01

    Non-pregnant women can avoid alcohol-exposed pregnancies (AEPs) by modifying drinking and/or contraceptive practices. The purpose of this study was to estimate the number and characteristics of women in the United States who are at risk of AEPs. We analyzed data from in-person interviews obtained from a national probability sample (i.e., the National Survey of Family Growth) of reproductive-aged women conducted from January 2002 to March 2003. To be at risk of AEP, a woman had to have met the following criteria in the last month: (1) was drinking; (2) had vaginal intercourse with a man; and (3) did not use contraception. During a 1-month period, nearly 2 million U.S. women were at risk of an AEP (95 % confidence interval 1,760,079-2,288,104), including more than 600,000 who were binge drinking. Thus, 3.4 %, or 1 in 30, of all non-pregnant women were at risk of an AEP. Most demographic and behavioral characteristics were not clearly associated with AEP risk. However, pregnancy intention was strongly associated with AEP risk (prevalence ratio = 12.0, P alcohol spectrum disorders. For pregnant women and women intending a pregnancy, there is an urgent need for wider implementation of prevention programs and policy approaches that can reduce the risk for this serious public health problem.

  3. Concentration of the 241Pu in air samples from Chernobyl at Belgrade site estimated by a 241Am in growth method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vukanac, I.; Novkovic, D.; Djurasevic, M.; Obradovic, Z.; Kandi, A.

    2006-01-01

    The surface air samples collected in the first half of May 1986 at Vinca- Belgrade site were prepared and measured at the end of the 1991 and beginning of the 1992. year. Activity concentrations of the 137 Cs immediately after the Chernobyl accident were determined by means of gamma spectrometry, while the air activity concentration of 238 Pu and 239,240 Pu were determined by alpha spectrometry, after the plutonium radiochemical separation. The 236 Pu was used as a tracer. The same samples were remeasured after 13 years, during the 2004. The surface air activity concentrations of 241 Pu were estimated by a 241 Am in-growth method. The built up activities of 236 Pu progenies were determined from the recorded spectra and also calculated using the Bateman equations. The 241 Am activity in the remeasured samples, obtained by complex spectral analysis was confirmed by gamma spectrometry. The 241 Pu activity concentration in measured air samples ranged from 240 μBq/m3 to 7800 μBq/m3. The average activity concentration ratio 241 Pu/ 239,240 Pu originated from Chernobyl accident was approximately 100. (authors)

  4. Pricing of reserves. Valuing system reserve capacity against spot prices in electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Just, Sebastian; Weber, Christoph

    2008-01-01

    This paper models the interdependencies between markets for secondary reserve capacity and spot electricity to derive the pricing of reserves under equilibrium conditions. Starting with the indifference condition between offering in both markets, the reservation price is derived from the opportunity cost consideration and the unit commitment conditions in a fundamental interrelated market framework. The reserve market examined compares widely to the German market for secondary reserves, but the general approach may also be used to investigate other reserve markets. The approach explores and formalizes the influence of reserve capacity on the spot market supply function. A numerical solution procedure is provided to this non-trivial case of market interaction. The model is used to estimate the expected reservation price development over the last years in Germany. (author)

  5. Estimates of covariance functions for growth of Anglo-Nubian goats Estimativas de funções de covariância para crescimento de caprinos anglo nubianos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Ernandes Rufino de Sousa

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It was used 4,313 weight records from birth to 196 days of age from 946 Anglo-nubiana breed goats, progenies from 43 sires and 279 dams, controlled in the period from 1980 to 2005, with the objective of estimating covariance functions and genetic parameters of animals by using random regression models. It was evaluated 12 random regression models, with degrees ranging from 1 to 7 for direct additive genetic and maternal and animal permanent environment effect and residual variance adjusted by using animal age ordinary polynomial of third order. Models were compared by using likelihood ratio test and by Bayesian information criterion of Schwarz and Akaike information criterion. The model selected based on Bayesian information criterion was the one that considered the maternal and direct additive genetic effect adjusted by a quadratic polynomial and the animal permanent environmental effect adjusted by a cubic polynomial (M334. Heritability estimates for direct effect were lower in the beginning and at the end of the studied period and maternal heritability estimates were higher at 196 days of age in comparison to the other growth phases. Genetic correlation ranged from moderate to high and they decreased as the distance between ages increased. Higher efficiency in selection for weight can be obtained by considering weights close to weaning, which is a period when the highest estimates of genetic variance and heritability are obtained.Foram utilizados 4.313 registros de pesos do nascimento aos 196 dias de idade de 946 animais da raça Anglo-Nubiana, filhos de 43 reprodutores e 279 cabras, controlados no período de 1980 a 2005, com o objetivo de estimar funções de covariância e parâmetros genéticos dos animais por meio de modelos de regressão aleatória. Foram avaliados 12 modelos de regressão aleatória, com graus variando de 1 a 7 para os efeitos genéticos aditivo direto e materno e de ambiente permanente de animal e com vari

  6. 77 FR 21846 - Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions: Reserves Simplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-12

    ... Requirements of Depository Institutions: Reserves Simplification AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Board is amending Regulation D, Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions, to simplify the administration of reserve requirements. The final rule creates a...

  7. An Attempt To Estimate The Contribution Of Variability Of Wetland Extent On The Variability Of The Atmospheric Methane Growth Rate In The Years 1993-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ringeval, B.; de Noblet-Ducoudre, N.; Prigent, C.; Bousquet, P.

    2006-12-01

    The atmospheric methane growth rate presents lots of seasonal and year-to-year variations. Large uncertainties still exist in the relative part of differents sources and sinks on these variations. We have considered, in this study, the main natural sources of methane and the supposed main variable source, i.e. wetlands, and tried to simulate the variations of their emissions considering the variability of the wetland extent and of the climate. For this study, we use the methane emission model of Walter et al. (2001) and the quantification of the flooded areas for the years 1993-2000 obtained with a suite of satellite observations by Prigent et al. (2001). The data necessary to the Walter's model are obtained with simulation of a dynamic global vegetation model ORCHIDEE (Krinner et al. (2005)) constrained by the NCC climate data (Ngo-Duc et al. (2005)) and after imposing a water-saturated soil to approach productivity of wetlands. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 400 Tg per year, that is higher than previous results obtained with fixed wetland extent. Simulations are realised to estimate the part of variability in the emissions explained by the variability of the wetland extent. It seems that the year-to-year emission variability is mainly explained by the interannual variability of wetland extent. The seasonnal variability is explained for 75% in the tropics and only for 40% in the north of 30°N by variability of wetlands extend. Finally, we compare results with a top-down approach of Bousquet et al.(2006).

  8. The impact of oil price on additions to US proven reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farzin, Y.H.

    2001-01-01

    Departing from Hotelling's assumption of fixed and known reserves, this paper develops an economic model of additions to proven reserves that explicitly incorporates the effects of expected resource price, cumulative reserves development, and technological progress on reserve additions. The model treats additions to proven oil reserves as output of a production process in which drilling wells is a primary input to transform some of oil-in-place into the economic category of proven reserves. Application of the model to US data for the 1950-1995 period provides strong statistical support for the existence of all the three salient effects. We obtain an estimate of the price elasticity of reserve additions (absent from previous studies) which, although statistically highly significant, is rather small. Using this price elasticity estimate, it is shown that if in the face of steady economic growth, and hence, oil consumption, US oil import dependence is to be kept from rising in the future, ceteris paribus, a steady oil price increase in the range of 1.5-4.5% a year is essential

  9. What are the reserves made of

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laherrere, J.

    1998-01-01

    The oil geologists worry about the oil reserves. An inventory of the oil resources estimations was carried out by the OECD-IEA. Some of the subjects covered by this inventory are commented with the arguments of the two schools : optimists and pessimists. The analysis takes account of the influence of the costs and the offshore technology. (A.L.B.)

  10. Shell Lip Thickness Is the Most Reliable Proxy to Sexual Maturity in Queen Conch (Lobatus gigas of Port Honduras Marine Reserve, Belize; Informing Management to Reduce the Risk of Growth Overfishing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R. Foley

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Queen conch (Lobatus gigas is an important food source and export product for Belize, where extraction is regulated by shell length (SL and market clean weight (MCW limits. However, lip thickness (LT limits are used to manage juvenile mortality and reduce risk of growth overfishing in other countries. Empirical studies suggest relationships between LT and sexual maturity vary spatially and need to be determined locally. This study was conducted to determine the most reliable, easily measurable proxy indicator(s of maturity and associated target size limits in L. gigas that can effectively restrict harvest of juveniles. Morphological measures (SL, LT, lip width, unprocessed meat weight, MCW, operculum dimensions, gonadosomatic index (GSI and histological evaluations were recorded from L. gigas collected in PHMR before, during, and after the L. gigas closed season. Upon determining Period 2 (during closed season as the peak reproductive period, relationships between these variables in Period 2 were examined. No relationship was found in males between SL and maturity, and was weak in females, whereas there were significant curvilinear relationships between LT and GSI for both sexes, suggesting urgent need to base size limits on LT not SL. LT at which 50% of the population was mature (LT50 was 15.51 mm for females and 12.33 mm for males, therefore a 16 mm LT limit is recommended. MCW of female L. gigas was also significantly related to GSI, indicating MCW may be an appropriate management tool in conjunction with LT as it can be measured at landing sites whereas shells are usually discarded at sea. However, MCW at which 50% of females were mature (MCW50 was 199 g and many individuals exceeding LT50 had MCW <199 g, suggesting the current 85 g MCW limit is too low to protect juveniles yet 199 g MCW limit would be too high to substitute the recommended LT limit at landing sites. To minimize short-term impacts yet maximize long-term benefits to fishers

  11. Mineral Resources: Reserves, Peak Production and the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence D. Meinert

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The adequacy of mineral resources in light of population growth and rising standards of living has been a concern since the time of Malthus (1798, but many studies erroneously forecast impending peak production or exhaustion because they confuse reserves with “all there is”. Reserves are formally defined as a subset of resources, and even current and potential resources are only a small subset of “all there is”. Peak production or exhaustion cannot be modeled accurately from reserves. Using copper as an example, identified resources are twice as large as the amount projected to be needed through 2050. Estimates of yet-to-be discovered copper resources are up to 40-times more than currently-identified resources, amounts that could last for many centuries. Thus, forecasts of imminent peak production due to resource exhaustion in the next 20–30 years are not valid. Short-term supply problems may arise, however, and supply-chain disruptions are possible at any time due to natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes or political complications. Needed to resolve these problems are education and exploration technology development, access to prospective terrain, better recycling and better accounting of externalities associated with production (pollution, loss of ecosystem services and water and energy use.

  12. Ecología del crecimiento de una lagartija del género Xenosaurus Peters 1861 (Squamata: Xenosauridae en la Reserva de la Biosfera, Sierra Gorda, Querétaro, México Growth ecology of a lizard of the genus Xenosaurus Peters 1861 (Squamata: Xenosauridae from the Biosphere Reserve, Sierra Gorda, Querétaro, México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. GASTÓN ZAMORA-ABREGO

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Analizamos el crecimiento corporal de una nueva especie de lagartija endémica del género Xenosaurus Peters, ubicada en la Reserva de la Biósfera, Sierra Gorda - Querétaro, México. Se estimaron las tasas de crecimiento corporal y se analizaron a partir de los modelos de crecimiento de Von Bertalanffy, logístico por longitud y logístico por peso. Para describir el patrón de crecimiento de estas lagartijas, utilizamos el modelo logístico por longitud debido a que fue el modelo que tuvo el mejor ajuste a las tasas observadas de crecimiento corporal. No encontramos diferencias significativas entre machos y hembras en el parámetro característico de crecimiento ni en la talla asintótica proyectada. Por lo tanto, se construyó una sola curva de crecimiento para ambos sexos. Los machos alcanzan la madurez sexual a los 24 meses, mientras que las hembras lo hacen hasta los 37 meses. Las tasas de crecimiento independientes de la talla no fueron estadísticamente diferentes entre años (2001, 2002 y 2003, ni entre estaciones (estación húmeda y seca. Nuestros resultados sugieren que la variación en el crecimiento corporal de esta especie, no es causada exclusivamente por las variaciones ambientales, sino más bien por una compleja combinación de factores ambientales y bases genéticas.We analyzed variation in body growth of a new lizard species of the genus Xenosaurus Peters that is endemic to the Biosphere Reserve, Sierra Gorda - Querétaro, México. We calculated body growth rates and analyzed them by means of the Von Bertalanffy, logistic-by-length, and logistic-by-weight growth models. We used the logistic-by-length model to describe the growth pattern of these lizards because this model provided the best fit to the observed body growth rates. No significant differences were found between males and females in the characteristic growth parameter or in the projected asymptotic size. Therefore, a single growth curve was constructed for both

  13. 77 FR 66361 - Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions: Reserves Simplification

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-05

    ... Requirements of Depository Institutions: Reserves Simplification AGENCY: Board of Governors of the Federal... (Reserve Requirements of Depository Institutions) published in the Federal Register on April 12, 2012. The... simplifications related to the administration of reserve requirements: 1. Create a common two-week maintenance...

  14. Fetal cardiac function in late-onset intrauterine growth restriction vs small-for-gestational age, as defined by estimated fetal weight, cerebroplacental ratio and uterine artery Doppler.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Cruz, M; Cruz-Lemini, M; Fernández, M T; Parra, J A; Bartrons, J; Gómez-Roig, M D; Crispi, F; Gratacós, E

    2015-10-01

    Among late-onset small fetuses, a combination of estimated fetal weight (EFW), cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) and mean uterine artery (UtA) pulsatility index (PI) can predict a subgroup of fetuses with poor perinatal outcome; however, the association of these criteria with fetal cardiac structure and function is unknown. Our aim was to determine the presence and severity of signs indicating cardiac dysfunction in small fetuses, classified as intrauterine growth-restricted (IUGR) or small-for-gestational age (SGA), according to EFW, CPR and UtA-PI. A cohort of 209 late-onset small fetuses that were delivered > 34 weeks of gestation was divided in two categories: SGA (n = 59) if EFW was between the 3(rd) and 9(th) centiles with normal CPR and UtA-PI; and IUGR (n = 150) if EFW was  95(th) centile. The small population was compared with 150 appropriately grown fetuses (controls). Fetal cardiac morphometry and function were assessed by echocardiography using two-dimensional M-mode, conventional and tissue Doppler. Compared with controls, both IUGR and SGA fetuses showed larger and more globular hearts (mean left sphericity index ± SD: controls, 1.8 ± 0.3; SGA, 1.5 ± 0.2; and IUGR, 1.6 ± 0.3; P < 0.01) and showed signs of systolic and diastolic dysfunction, including decreased tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (mean ± SD: controls, 8.2 ± 1.1; SGA, 7.4 ± 1.2; and IUGR, 6.9 ± 1.1; P < 0.001) and increased left myocardial performance index (mean ± SD: controls, 0.45 ± 0.14; SGA, 0.51 ± 0.08; and IUGR, 0.57 ± 0.1; P < 0.001). Despite a perinatal outcome comparable to that of normal fetuses, the population of so-defined SGA fetuses showed signs of prenatal cardiac dysfunction. This supports the concept that at least a proportion of them are not 'constitutionally small' and that further research is needed. Copyright © 2015 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Shifts in microbial populations in Rusitec fermenters as affected by the type of diet and impact of the method for estimating microbial growth (15N v. microbial DNA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos, I; Ranilla, M J; Saro, C; Carro, M D

    2017-11-01

    Rusitec fermenters are in vitro systems widely used to study ruminal fermentation, but little is known about the microbial populations establishing in them. This study was designed to assess the time evolution of microbial populations in fermenters fed medium- (MC; 50% alfalfa hay : concentrate) and high-concentrate diets (HC; 15 : 85 barley straw : concentrate). Samples from solid (SOL) and liquid (LIQ) content of fermenters were taken immediately before feeding on days 3, 8 and 14 of incubation for quantitative polymerase chain reaction and automated ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis analyses. In SOL, total bacterial DNA concentration and relative abundance of Ruminococcus flavefaciens remained unchanged over the incubation period, but protozoal DNA concentration and abundance of Fibrobacter succinogenes, Ruminococcus albus and fungi decreased and abundance of methanogenic archaea increased. In LIQ, total bacterial DNA concentration increased with time, whereas concentration of protozoal DNA and abundance of methanogens and fungi decreased. Diet×time interactions were observed for bacterial and protozoal DNA and relative abundance of F. succinogenes and R. albus in SOL, as well as for protozoal DNA in LIQ. Bacterial diversity in SOL increased with time, but no changes were observed in LIQ. The incubated diet influenced all microbial populations, with the exception of total bacteria and fungi abundance in LIQ. Bacterial diversity was higher in MC-fed than in HC-fed fermenters in SOL, but no differences were detected in LIQ. Values of pH, daily production of volatile fatty acids and CH4 and isobutyrate proportions remained stable over the incubation period, but other fermentation parameters varied with time. The relationships among microbial populations and fermentation parameters were in well agreement with those previously reported in in vivo studies. Using 15N as a microbial marker or quantifying total microbial DNA for estimating microbial protein synthesis

  16. Age estimation and growth pattern of the island grouper, Mycteroperca fusca (Serranidae in an island population on the northwest coast of Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rocío Bustos

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Mycteroperca fusca is one of the main predators of the Canarian archipelago coastal marine ecosystem. Nothing is known on the life history or population dynamics of this predatory serranid fish. In this study, age and growth of M. fusca were investigated by annual growth increment counts from 214 fish collected between January 2004 and December 2005. A year’s growth is represented by one opaque and one translucent ring. The island grouper is a slow-growing and long-lived species, with ages up to twenty years recorded. Length at age was described by the von Bertalanffy growth model (L∞=898 mm; k=0.062 year-1; and t0= −3.83 year, the Schnute growth model (y1=262 mm; y2=707 mm; a=0.008; and b=1.98, and the seasonalised von Bertalanffy growth model (L∞=908 mm; k=0.061 year-1; t0= −3.83 year; C=2.58; and ts=0.542. Males and females show differences in growth.

  17. Fractional Reserve in Banking System

    OpenAIRE

    Valkonen, Maria

    2016-01-01

    This thesis is aimed to provide understanding of the role of the fractional reserve in the mod-ern banking system worldwide and particularly in Finland. The fractional reserve banking is used worldwide, but the benefits of this system are very disputable. On the one hand, experts say that the fractional reserve is a necessary instrument for the normal business and profit making. On the other hand, sceptics openly criticize the fractional reserve system and blame it for fiat money (money n...

  18. Forecast of Exploration Potential and Reserves Growth in Jiyang Depression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Wanqin

    2010-01-01

    @@ Jiyang Depression, located in northern Shandong Province, is part of the Bohai Bay Basin of Sino-Korean platform, with the exploration acreage being 35,696square kilometers.It consists of Dongying, Zhanhua,Chezhen, and Huimin sags and the beach area, 73 oil and gas fields have been discovered here.After drilling the first commercial oil flow in Hua-8 well in 1961,exploration in Jiyang Depression has been carried out for 49 years yet.

  19. Biosphere reserves: Attributes for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Cuong, Chu; Dart, Peter; Hockings, Marc

    2017-03-01

    Biosphere reserves established under the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Program aim to harmonise biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Concerns over the extent to which the reserve network was living up to this ideal led to the development of a new strategy in 1995 (the Seville Strategy) to enhance the operation of the network of reserves. An evaluation of effectiveness of management of the biosphere reserve network was called for as part of this strategy. Expert opinion was assembled through a Delphi Process to identify successful and less successful reserves and investigate common factors influencing success or failure. Ninety biosphere reserves including sixty successful and thirty less successful reserves in 42 countries across all five Man and the Biosphere Program regions were identified. Most successful sites are the post-Seville generation while the majority of unsuccessful sites are pre-Seville that are managed as national parks and have not been amended to conform to the characteristics that are meant to define a biosphere reserve. Stakeholder participation and collaboration, governance, finance and resources, management, and awareness and communication are the most influential factors in the success or failure of the biosphere reserves. For success, the biosphere reserve concept needs to be clearly understood and applied through landscape zoning. Designated reserves then need a management system with inclusive good governance, strong participation and collaboration, adequate finance and human resource allocation and stable and responsible management and implementation. All rather obvious but it is difficult to achieve without commitment to the biosphere reserve concept by the governance authorities. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Evaluation of Growth Indices and Estimation Seed Yield Loss Threshold of Canola in Response to Various Densities of Crop and Wild Mustard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z Anafjeh

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In order to study the effect of various densities of wild mustard (Sinapis arvensis L. on growth indices of Canola (Brassica napus L. in climate of Molathani, Ahvaz, an experiment was conducted in the experimental field of Ramin Agricultural and Natural Resources University, in 2006-2007. The split-plot set of treatments was arranged within randomized complete block design with four replications. Treatments included of wild mustard at five levels (0, 7, 14, 21 and 35 plants m2 and Canola at three densities (60, 80 and 100 plants m2. The results showed that the increase in mustard density rates lead to decreasing total dry matter, leaf area index, crop growth rate, relative growth rate and mean pod dry matter in three canola densities (60, 80 and 100 plants m2. Somewhat the lowest growth indices was obtained in 35 plants mustard (that is the highest mustard density. In addition damage rate of mustard decreased canola seed yield for 7, 14, 21 and 35 plants mustard up to 61, 71, 76 and 91%, respectively. Keywords: Plant density, Competition, Yield loss threshold, Growth indices, Canola, Mustard

  1. Reserves Represented by Random Walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Filipe, J A; Ferreira, M A M; Andrade, M

    2012-01-01

    The reserves problem is studied through models based on Random Walks. Random walks are a classical particular case in the analysis of stochastic processes. They do not appear only to study reserves evolution models. They are also used to build more complex systems and as analysis instruments, in a theoretical feature, of other kind of systems. In this work by studying the reserves, the main objective is to see and guarantee that pensions funds get sustainable. Being the use of these models considering this goal a classical approach in the study of pensions funds, this work concluded about the problematic of reserves. A concrete example is presented.

  2. [Differences between observed and estimated by hematocrit hemoglobin and its relevance in the diagnosis of anemia among coastal population in Venezuela: analysis of the second national study of human growth and development (SENACREDH)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flores-Torres, Jessica; Echeverría-Ortega, María; Arria-Bohorquez, Melissa; Hidalgo, Glida; Albano-Ramos, Carlos; Sanz, Rafael; Rodríguez-Morales, Alfonso J

    2011-03-01

    To evaluate the differences between the observed hemoglobin levels and those estimated based on hematocrit in the context of the 2nd National Study of Human Growth and Development of the Venezuelan Population (SENACREDH). 6,004 individuals were chosen by a probabilistic multistage cluster sampling representing 7,286,781 inhabitants from North Central Coastal area (Vargas, Carabobo, Capital District, Aragua and Miranda). Means of observed and estimated hemoglobin (hematocrit/3) were compared, using t test for related samples and linear regression. Mean difference between the values of observed and estimated hemoglobin was -0.3446 ±0.0002 (phemoglobin values. Regression models of hemoglobin on hematocrit showed an r2=0,87. In order to correct the estimation, we propose a new formula for calculating hemoglobin based on haematocrit values: estimated hemoglobin=(Haematocrit/3.135)+ 0.257. There is an overestimation of hemoglobin levels from hematocrit levels and therefore an underestimation of the prevalence of anemia; however, a high positive correlation between them was found, allowing modeling for achieving a better estimation of the hemoglobin from the hematocrit value.

  3. Uranium - raw material reserves for coming generations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keutner, H.

    1981-01-01

    Large uranium occurences have been discovered in the South of Mexico. The deposits are situated in the Sierra Mixteca. Reserves of 9.400 tons had been at Mexico's disposal even before these new discoveries. The quantitiy discovered recentyl amounts to 20.000 tons. The uranium reserves available apart from those in centrally controlled economic systems are presently estimated at five million tons. Meanwhile American scientists have found out that all the rivers of the world transport about 16.000 tons of uranium from the continents into the oceans per annum. The energy value of this washed out amount of uranium corresponds to the 25-fold world power demand of today. US scientists have discovered that the oceans can provide uranium for about seven million years of the present world energy demand. While the petroleum reserves decrease worldwide it seems that the exploration of uranium has just been started. (orig.) [de

  4. Wind offering in energy and reserve markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soares, Tiago; Pinson, Pierre; Morais, Hugo

    2016-01-01

    The increasing penetration of wind generation in power systems to fulfil the ambitious European targets will make wind power producers to play an even more important role in the future power system. Wind power producers are being incentivized to participate in reserve markets to increase...... their revenue, since currently wind turbine/farm technologies allow them to provide ancillary services. Thus, wind power producers are to develop offering strategies for participation in both energy and reserve markets, accounting for market rules, while ensuring optimal revenue. We consider a proportional...... offering strategy to optimally decide upon participation in both markets by maximizing expected revenue from day-ahead decisions while accounting for estimated regulation costs for failing to provide the services. An evaluation of considering the same proportional splitting of energy and reserve in both...

  5. Using Increases in Criminal Deportees from the US to Estimate the Effect of Crime on Economic Growth and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garfield O. Blake

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Previous empirical studies have uncovered little evidence that crime hinders development, possibly due to simultaneity problems. This paper uses the increase in criminal deportees from the US as an instrumental variable to identify the causal effect of crime on economic growth and development. An increase in the number of criminal deportees received by a country is shown to substantially increase that country’s homicide rate. Using panel data for a sample of 30 Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC countries, I show that the increase in crime is becoming a major obstacle to growth and development in the region.

  6. An Online Evaluation of Operating Reserve for System Security

    OpenAIRE

    Le-Ren Chang-Chien; Yin-Juin Lin; Chin-Chung Wu

    2007-01-01

    Utilities use operating reserve for frequency regulation.To ensure that the operating frequency and system security are well maintained, the operating grid codes always specify that the reserve quantity and response rate should meet some prescribed levels. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate system's contingency reserve for an isolated power network. With the presented algorithm to estimate system's frequency response characteristic, an online allocation of contingency reserve would...

  7. Determination of oil and gas reserves. 2. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aguilera, R.; MacKay, V.

    2004-01-01

    This book was prepared by more than 40 contributing authors with expertise in a wide range of topics related to oil and gas reserves. It represents a collaborative effort to find definitions and guidelines for the classification of reserves that is acceptable to the oil industry, evaluators, oil and gas companies, financial agencies, securities commissions and government departments. This second edition is an update of the original work that was published in 1994 which compares estimates of reserves and their classification. The new edition includes changes that have occurred in the past 10 years and expands on the processes that are used to estimate reserves. New techniques for assessing risk were also included. The book is divided into four parts entitled: (1) definitions and guidelines for estimating and classifying oil and gas resources and reserves, (2) determination of in-place resources, (3) estimation of recovery factors and forecasting of recoverable hydrocarbons, and (4) prices, economics and markets. The second edition includes new sections dealing with geostatistics, natural gas balance calculations, reserves estimates in naturally fractured reservoirs, and new developments in estimating recovery factors through enhanced recovery methods such as horizontal drilling. The objective was to develop a reference that is of great value to geologists, engineers and technical persons involved in estimating reserves. refs., tabs., figs

  8. Reservation wages and starting wages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, H.; Hartog, J.; Berkhout, P.

    2011-01-01

    We analyse a unique data set that combines reservation wage and actually paid wage for a large sample of Dutch recent higher education graduates. On average, accepted wages are almost 8% higher than reservation wages, but there is no fixed proportionality. We find that the difference between

  9. Can Creativity Predict Cognitive Reserve?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmiero, Massimiliano; Di Giacomo, Dina; Passafiume, Domenico

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive reserve relies on the ability to effectively cope with aging and brain damage by using alternate processes to approach tasks when standard approaches are no longer available. In this study, the issue if creativity can predict cognitive reserve has been explored. Forty participants (mean age: 61 years) filled out: the Cognitive Reserve…

  10. Heritability and genotype by environment interaction estimates for harvest weight, growth rate, and shape of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) grown in river cage and VAC in Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trong, T.Q.; Mulder, H.A.; Arendonk, van J.A.M.; Komen, J.

    2013-01-01

    Harvest weight has been the main selected trait for the GIFT strain of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). However, growth rate and body shape are traits of increasing interest. In the Mekong Delta of Vietnam, intensive river-cage culture and low-input ponds are the most important production

  11. Potential and limitations of local tree ring records in estimating a priori the growth performance of short-rotation coppice plantations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Trnka, Miroslav; Fischer, Milan; Bartošová, Lenka; Orság, Matěj; Kyncl, T.; Ceulemans, R.; King, J.R.; Büntgen, Ulf

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 92, sep (2016), s. 12-19 ISSN 0961-9534 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA MŠk(CZ) LD13030 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : dendroecology * plantation site selection * populus nigra * poplar hybrid * weather-growth relationship Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.219, year: 2016

  12. Comparison of growth rates estimated by otolith reading of Scorpaena porcus and Scorpaena notata caught on artificial and natural reefs of the northern Adriatic sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Scarcella

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite the high number of studies on fish assemblages associated with artificial reefs and offshore platforms, little information exists on the growth rates of fish living on artificial and natural substrates. Age and growth was determined throughout otolith reading on two commercial scorpionfishes (Scorpaena porcus and Scorpaena notata caught in the surroundings of artificial structures (artificial reefs and gas platforms and natural habitats. Von Bertalanffy growth parameters were calculated for each species separately for each site. Age of S. porcus and S. notata ranged from 0 to 8 years and from 0 to 16 years, respectively. Kimura test applied to Von Bertalanffy growth curves indicated that the individuals of both species inhabiting the artificial structures had higher growth parameters than those caught in the natural habitat. The presence of artificial habitats in the northern Adriatic Sea positively affects growth rates and growth performance of both species, likely for the greater prey availability in respect to the natural open sea.Apesar do elevado número de estudos sobre as assembléias de peixes associadas a recifes artificiais e plataformas offshore, existe pouca informação sobre as taxas de crescimento dos peixes que vivem em substratos artificiais e naturais. A idade e crescimento foram determinados pela leitura de otólitos em dois peixes escorpião comerciais (Scorpaena porcus e Scorpaena notata capturados nas imediações de estruturas artificiais (recifes artificiais e plataformas de gás e habitats naturais. Parâmetros de crescimento de von Bertalanffy foram calculadoss separadamente para cada espécie e cada local. A idade de Scorpaena porcus e Scorpaena notata variou entre 0 e 8 anos e 0 e 16 anos, respectivamente. O teste Kimura aplicado às curvas de crescimento de Bertalanffy indicaram que os indivíduos das duas espécies que habitam as estruturas artificiais tinham parâmetros de crescimento mais elevados do que

  13. Chicle harvesting and extractive reserves in the Maya Biosphere b: Reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dugelby, B.L.

    1995-12-31

    Chicle latex has been extracted from the forests of northern Guatemala for over 100 years and is a key element in the extractive reserve component of the Maya Biosphere Reserve. The carrying capacity of the reserve for chicle extraction can be estimated from a model incorporating ecological data (such as latex yields per tree and population structure of chicle trees, Manilkara zapota, Sapot.) with socio-ecological and political information concerning camp and chicle resource availability, harvester tapping behavior, and historical and present-day institutional organization. I estimate that chicle harvestors currently utilize and area larger than the multiple use zone of the reserve in a unsustainable manner. Simple reduction of harvestors numbers will not ensure sustainability; institutional reforms are also in order. Extractive reserves can play an important role in preserving tropical forests. However, their effectiveness is highly dependent on prevailing ecological, socio-economic, and political conditions. Wise planning and management of extractive reserves demands an understanding of the system`s carrying capacity. In addition, a strong institutional foundation is necessary to assure effective monitoring and enforcement of harvesting regulations.

  14. On the Estimation of the CO2 Emission, Economic Growth and Energy Consumption Nexus Using Dynamic OLS in the Presence of Multicollinearity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristofer Månsson

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces shrinkage estimators (Ridge DOLS for the dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS cointegration estimator, which extends the model for use in the presence of multicollinearity between the explanatory variables in the cointegration vector. Both analytically and by using simulation techniques, we conclude that our new Ridge DOLS approach exhibits lower mean square errors (MSE than the traditional DOLS method. Therefore, based on the MSE performance criteria, our Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that our new method outperforms the DOLS under empirically relevant magnitudes of multicollinearity. Moreover, we show the advantages of this new method by more accurately estimating the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC, where the income and squared income are related to carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, we also illustrate the practical use of the method when augmenting the EKC curve with energy consumption. In summary, regardless of whether we use analytical, simulation-based, or empirical approaches, we can consistently conclude that it is possible to estimate these types of relationships in a considerably more accurate manner using our newly suggested method.

  15. Shell trips over its reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemain, A.

    2004-01-01

    Some mistakes in the evaluation of the proven reserves of Royal Dutch Shell group, the second world petroleum leader, will oblige the other oil and gas companies to be more transparent and vigilant in the future. The proven reserves ('P90' in petroleum professionals' language) are the most important indicators of the mining patrimony of companies. These strategic data are reported each year in the annual reports of the companies and are examined by the security exchange commission. The evaluation of reserves is perfectly codified by the US energy policy and conservation act and its accountable translation using the FAS 69 standard allows to establish long-term cash-flow forecasts. The revision announced by Shell on January 9 leads to a 20% reduction of its proven reserves. Short paper. (J.S.)

  16. Professionalizing the Estonian Reserve Component

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Everett, William

    1998-01-01

    .... In particular, citizen-soldier reserves can allow nations that do not face immediate external threats, such as Estonia, to meet their security requirements for less money than required by standing forces...

  17. Fractional Reserve Banking: Some Quibbles

    OpenAIRE

    Bagus, Philipp; Howden, David

    2010-01-01

    We explore several unaddressed issues in George Selgin’s (1988) claim that the best monetary system to maintain monetary equilibrium is a fractional reserve free banking one. The claim that adverse clearing balances would limit credit expansion in a fractional reserve free banking system is more troublesome than previously reckoned. Both lengthened clearing periods and interbank agreements render credit expansion unrestrained. “The theory of free banking” confuses increases in money held with...

  18. Demand as frequency controlled reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

    2008-09-15

    Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

  19. Improved Effectiveness of Reserve Forces During Reserve Duty Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treadaway, Harry H.

    The problem areas of motivation, job enrichment, recruiting, and retention are addressed from the viewpoint of the behavioral scientist. Special attention is given to relating job enrichment and motivation techniques, as successfully demonstrated in industry, to the United State Army Reserve. Research method utilized was a literature review…

  20. Onset of white striping and progression into wooden breast as defined by myopathic changes underlying Pectoralis major growth. Estimation of growth parameters as predictors for stage of myopathy progression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Jacqueline Reedy; Moraes, Luis; Wick, Macdonald; Lilburn, Michael Snell

    2018-02-01

    The broiler industry has incurred significant economic losses due to two muscle myopathies, white striping (WS) and wooden breast (WB), affecting the Pectoralis major (P. major) of commercial broilers. The present study documented macroscopic changes occurring with age/growth in the P. major and P. minor muscles of commercial broilers from day 2 through day 46 (n = 27/day). Distinct myopathic aberrations observed in both breast muscles corresponded to the onset of WB. These distinct morphological changes were used as determinants in developing a ranking system, defining the ontogeny of WB as the following four stages: (1) WS, (2) petechial epimysium haemorrhages, (3) intramuscular haemorrhages and (4) ischaemia. A cumulative logit proportional odds model was used to relate the rank probabilities with the following growth parameters: body weight, P. major and P. minor weight/yield/length/width/depth. The best-fit model included P. major length/width/depth, P. minor width, P. major and P. minor yield as predictors for rank. Increasing P. major depth, P. minor width and P. major yield increased the odds of falling into higher ranks (more severe myopathy). Conversely, increasing P. major length, P. major width and P. minor yield increased the odds of falling into smaller ranks (less severe myopathy). This study describes the macroscopic changes associated with WB ontogeny in the development of a ranking system and the contribution of growth parameters in the determination of rank (WB severity). Results suggest that physical measurements inherent to selection for high-yielding broiler genotypes are contributing to the occurrence and severity of WS and WB.

  1. Extractive reserves in Brazilian Amazonia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fearnside, P.M (National Institute for Research in the Amazon, Manaus-Amazonas (Brazil))

    1989-06-01

    In 1985 an opportunity arose for maintaining tracts of Amazonian forest under sustainable use. Brazil's National Council of Rubber Tappers and the Rural Worker's Union proposed the creation of a set of reserves of a new type, called extractive reserves. The first six are being established in one of the Brazilian states most threatened by deforestatation. The creation of extractive reserves grants legal protection to forest land traditionally used by rubber tappers, Brazil-nut gatherers, and other extractivists. The term extrativismo (extractivism) in Brazil refers to removing nontimber forest products, such as latex, resins, and nuts, without felling the trees. Approximately 30 products are collected for commercial sale. Many more types of forest materials are gathered, for example as food and medicines, for the extractivists' own use. The reserve proposal is attractive for several reasons related to social problems. It allows the rubber tappers to continue their livelihood rather than be expelled by deforestation. However, it is unlikely that sufficient land will be set aside as extractive reserves to employ all the tappers. Displaced rubber tappers already swell the ranks of urban slum dwellers in Brazil's Amazonian cities, and they have become refugees to continue their profession in the forests of neighboring countries, such as Bolivia.

  2. Are Private Reserves Effective for Jaguar Conservation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmina E Gutiérrez-González

    Full Text Available We present the first study of density and apparent survival for a jaguar (Panthera onca population in northern Mexico using 13 years of camera trap data from 2000 to 2012. We used the Barker robust design model which combines data from closed sampling periods and resight data between these periods to estimate apparent survival and abundance. We identified 467 jaguar pictures that corresponded to 48 jaguar individuals. We included camera type and field technician as covariates for detection probabilities. We used three covariates to evaluate the effect of reserve on jaguar apparent survival: i private reserve creation ii later reserve expansions, and iii cattle ranches' conservation activities. We found that the use of digital cameras in addition to film cameras increased detection probability by a factor of 6x compared with the use of only film cameras (p = 0.34 ± 0.05 and p = 0.05 ± 0.02 respectively in the closed period and more than three times in the open period (R = 0.91 ± 0.08 and R = 0.30 ± 0.13 mixed and film cameras respectively. Our availability estimates showed no temporary emigration and a fidelity probability of 1. Despite an increase of apparent survival probability from 0.47 ± 0.15 to 0.56 ± 0.11 after 2007, no single covariate explained the change in these point estimates. Mean jaguar density was 1.87 ± 0.47 jaguars/100 km2. We found that 13 years of jaguar population monitoring with our sampling size were not enough for detecting changes in survival or density. Our results provide a baseline for studies evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas and the inclusion of ranch owners in jaguar conservation programs and long-term population viability.

  3. Wind offering in energy and reserve markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, T.; Pinson, P.; Morais, H.

    2016-09-01

    The increasing penetration of wind generation in power systems to fulfil the ambitious European targets will make wind power producers to play an even more important role in the future power system. Wind power producers are being incentivized to participate in reserve markets to increase their revenue, since currently wind turbine/farm technologies allow them to provide ancillary services. Thus, wind power producers are to develop offering strategies for participation in both energy and reserve markets, accounting for market rules, while ensuring optimal revenue. We consider a proportional offering strategy to optimally decide upon participation in both markets by maximizing expected revenue from day-ahead decisions while accounting for estimated regulation costs for failing to provide the services. An evaluation of considering the same proportional splitting of energy and reserve in both day- ahead and balancing market is performed. A set of numerical examples illustrate the behavior of such strategy. An important conclusion is that the optimal split of the available wind power between energy and reserve strongly depends upon prices and penalties on both market trading floors.

  4. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

    2011-01-01

    Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...... balancing measure, which has a high potential and can provide many advantages. Firstly, the background of the research is reviewed, including conventional power system reserves and the electricity demand side potentials. Subsequently, the control logics and corresponding design considerations for the DFR...

  5. Natural gas: reserves keep ahead of production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hough, G V

    1983-08-01

    World production of natural gas in 1982 fell only 1.6% below 1981 levels, while proven recoverable reserves were up by 3.6% for a total of 3.279 quadrillion CF, which is 32.4% higher than had been estimated in 1978. Gas consumption, however, has experienced greater changes, with most of the industrialized countries (except for Japan) reporting declines in gas demand resulting from falling oil prices, reduced energy demand, and a slack world economy. Although gas seems to be holding its own in energy markets, further progress will not be easy to achieve.

  6. Thailand's energy security: Strategic Petroleum Reserve and its economic impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leesombatpiboon, Poonpat

    This dissertation studies Thailand's energy security from three related perspectives, the role of oil on the Thai macroeconomy, the sectoral demand for oil in Thailand, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) policy for the Thai economy. The first part of my dissertation estimates an error correction model of aggregate production function for Thailand. Thai economic growth is modeled as a function of labor, capital, and oil consumption. Unlike previous studies that focus on testing the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, I focus on measuring the elasticity of economic growth with respect to oil consumption and oil prices. I find a cointegration relationship between GDP, capital, labor, and oil consumption. The results suggest that there exists a constant-return-to-scale characteristic in Thailand's aggregate production function with the contribution of labor, oil, and capital to output around 68, 19, and 13 percent respectively. The long-run and short-run contribution of oil consumption to the economy appears to be fairly close, suggesting that oil has a critical role in the Thai economy. In the short run, oil shortages have a much more severe impact on Thai economy than the effects of an oil price shock. For example, a 10 percent shortfall in oil consumption might cause economic growth to shrink by 2 percent within the same year while a sharp10 percent rise in oil prices canlead output growth to a fall by about 0.5 percent. The response of output to increases and decreases in oil prices is found to be asymmetric in the short run. The second part of my dissertation examines the short-run and long-run determinants of final oil consumption in seven major economic sectors in Thailand. Two different approaches are compared. The first approach uses dynamic panel data estimation techniques taking into account oil consumption of the whole economy in an aggregate manner. The second approach employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL

  7. Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Zhao; Togeby, Mikael; Østergaard, Jacob

    This report summaries the research outcomes of the project ‘Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve (DFR)’, which has received the support from Energinet.dk’s PSO program, Grant no. 2005-2-6380. The objective of this project is to investigate the technology of using electricity demands for providing...

  8. Adequacy of Frequency Reserves for High Wind Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Das, Kaushik; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Maule, Petr

    2017-01-01

    In this article, a new methodology is developed to assess the adequacy of frequency reserves to handle power imbalances caused by wind power forecast errors. The goal of this methodology is to estimate the adequate volume and speed of activation of frequency reserves required to handle power...

  9. Effects of different international fiscal systems on reserves reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMichael, C.L.

    1996-01-01

    The effects of international fiscal systems on oil and gas reserves evaluation and reporting, was reviewed. The movement in reserves estimates with changing technical, political and economic conditions, was described. Difficulties associated with the evaluation and booking of reserves is largely due to the confusing duplication of terms. For example, explorationists refer to reserves as an undrilled prospect, while engineers refer to them as producing property. The financial analyst refers to reserves of a company, while governments refer to the reserves of the country. The importance of defining reserves with full knowledge of the specific regulations that govern the reporting of reserves externally, and the internal reporting requirements for business planning purposes, was stressed. 2 refs

  10. Effects of sex change on the implications of marine reserves for fisheries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Neil C S; Connolly, Sean R; Mapstone, Bruce D

    2012-04-01

    Marine reserves have become widely used in biodiversity conservation and are increasingly proposed as fisheries management tools. Previous modeling studies have found that reserves may increase or decrease yields, depending on local environmental conditions and on the specific life-history traits of the fishery species. Sex-changing (female-to-male) fish are targets of some of the most important commercial and recreational fisheries in the world. The potential for disproportionate removal of the larger, older sex of such species requires new theory to facilitate our understanding of how reserves will affect the yields of surrounding fisheries, relative to fishes with separate sexes. We investigated this question by modeling the effects of marine reserves on a non-sex-changing and a sex-changing population. We used demographic parameter estimates for the common coral trout as a baseline, and we conducted extensive sensitivity analyses to determine how sustainable yields of sex-changing species are likely to be affected by reserves across a broad range of life-history parameters. Our findings indicate that fisheries for sex-changing species are unlikely to receive the same yield-enhancing benefit that non-sex-changing fisheries enjoy from marine reserves, and that often reserves tend to reduce sustainable yields for a given overall population size. Specifically, the increased egg production and high fertilization success within reserves is more than offset by the reduced egg production and fertilization success in the fished areas, relative to a system in which fishing mortality is distributed more evenly over the entire system. A key reason for this appears to be that fertilization success is reduced, on average, when males are unevenly distributed among subpopulations, as is the case when reserves are present. These findings suggests that, for sex-changing populations, reserves are more suited to rebuilding overfished populations and sustaining fishery viability

  11. Planning outstanding reserves in general insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raeva, E.; Pavlov, V.

    2017-10-01

    Each insurance company have to ensure its solvency through presentation of accounts for its own reserves in the start of the year. Usually the task of the actuary is to estimate the state of the company on an annual basis and the expectation of the status of the company for a future period. One of the major problem when calculating the liabilities of the incurred claims, is related to the delay of payments. Object of consideration in the present note are the outstanding claim reserves, which are set aside to cover claims, occurred before the date of the annual account, but still not paid, and related with them expenses. There may be different reasons for the delay of claims settlement. For example, continuation the process of the liquidation of the damage waiting for necessary documents or the presence of controversial cases whose permission takes time, etc. Thus the claims, which determine the outstanding reserves could be divided in the following types: claims, which are reported, but not settled (RBNS); claims, which are incurred but not reported (IBNR); claims, whose case is finished, but it is possible to be reopened. When calculating the reserves for IBNR claims, most widely used is the Chain-ladder method and its modification presented by the Bornhuetter - Ferguson method. For modeling the outstanding claims, the available data should be presented in so called run-off triangle, which underlies in the basis of such methods. The present work provides a review of the algorithm for calculating insurance outstanding claim reserves according to the Chain-ladder method. Using available data for claims related to liability of drivers, registered in Bulgaria an example is constructed to illustrate the methodology of the Chain-Ladder method. Back-testing approach is used for validating the results.

  12. Demand Response Spinning Reserve Demonstration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eto, Joseph H.; Nelson-Hoffman, Janine; Torres, Carlos; Hirth,Scott; Yinger, Bob; Kueck, John; Kirby, Brendan; Bernier, Clark; Wright,Roger; Barat, A.; Watson, David S.

    2007-05-01

    The Demand Response Spinning Reserve project is a pioneeringdemonstration of how existing utility load-management assets can providean important electricity system reliability resource known as spinningreserve. Using aggregated demand-side resources to provide spinningreserve will give grid operators at the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) and Southern California Edison (SCE) a powerful, newtool to improve system reliability, prevent rolling blackouts, and lowersystem operating costs.

  13. Gas reserves, discoveries and production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saniere, A.

    2006-01-01

    Between 2000 and 2004, new discoveries, located mostly in the Asia/Pacific region, permitted a 71% produced reserve replacement rate. The Middle East and the offshore sector represent a growing proportion of world gas production Non-conventional gas resources are substantial but are not exploited to any significant extent, except in the United States, where they account for 30% of U.S. gas production. (author)

  14. Federal reservation of geothermal resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silver, R.M.

    1978-01-01

    Union Oil had developed or was seeking to develop wells on the land in Sonoma County, California in order to produce geothermal steam for generating electricity. The US Attorney General brought a quiet title action pursuant to 21(b) of the Geothermal Steam Act of 1970 to determine whether geothermal resources are included in the mineral reservation under the Homestead Act. The US District Court granted Union Oil's motion to dismiss for failure to state a claim upon which relief may be granted. On appeal, the Ninth Circuit reversed and remanded. In summary, the court concluded on the basis of the legislative history of the Stock-Raising Homestead Act that sources of energy are intended to remain in the government's possession, and the purposes of the Act will be best served by including geothermal resources in the reservation of mineral interests. Noting the strictly agricultural purpose of the Act, the subsurface estate reservation was broadly interpreted, even though title passed to all rights that were not expressly reserved. The court left open on remand the question of estoppel of the government from interfering with private lessees by developing subsurface resources compensation.This is a unique and intriguing decision, as it opens wide the definition of ''mineral interest,'' construing it in the timely terms of a valuable natural resource that may be in great demand for future energy needs. The decision is being appealed to the United States Supreme Court, and it will be interesting to observe whether this liberal interpretation of mineral interests will be upheld.

  15. Ultrasound in evaluating ovarian reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eman Ahmaed Shawky Sabek

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to compare the diagnostic accuracy of transvaginal ultrasound (TVS, as a less invasive technique instead of hormonal assay to evaluate the ovarian reserve. This study included fifty-five females with breast cancer and we compared the ovarian reserve for these patients by hormonal assay through measuring the serum AntiMullerian Hormone (AMH level and follicular stimulating hormone (FSH level before and after chemotherapy, and by transvaginal ultrasound through the ovarian volume (OV calculation and counting the Antral follicles (AFC before and after chemotherapy treatment. There was decline in the AntiMullerian Hormone level after chemotherapy by 27 ± 11.19% and decrease in the Antral follicle counts by 21 ± 13.43%. In conclusion there was strong relation between AMH level and AFC which makes the use of transvaginal ultrasound is a reliable alternative method to the hormonal assay to detect the ovarian reserve.

  16. An estimate of hydrothermal fluid residence times and vent chimney growth rates based on 210Pb/Pb ratios and mineralogic studies of sulfides dredged from the Juan de Fuca Ridge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadko, D.; Tatsumoto, Mitsunobu

    1985-01-01

    The 210 Pb/Pb ratios across two sulfide samples dredged from the Juan de Fuca Ridge are used to estimate the growth rate of the sulfide material and the residence time of the hydrothermal fluid within the oceanic crust from the onset of basalt alteration. 210 Pb is added to the hydrothermal fluid by two processes: 1) high-temperature alteration of basalt and 2) if the residence time of the fluid is on the order of the 22.3-year half-life of 210 Pb, by in-situ growth from 222 Rn (Krishnaswami and Turekian, 1982). Stable lead is derived only from the alteration of basalt. The 210 Pb/Pb ratio across one sample was proportional 0.5 dpm/10 -6 g Pb, and across the other is was proportional 0.4 dpm/10 -6 g Pb. These values are quite close to the 238 U/Pb ratios of basalts from the area, suggesting that the residence time of the hydrothermal fluid from the onset of basalt alteration is appreciably less than the mean life of 210 Pb, i.e., the time required for ingrowth from the radon. An apparent growth rate of 1.2 cm/yr is derived from the slope of the 210 Pb/Pb curve for one of the samples. This is consistent with its mineralogy and texture which suggest an accretionary pattern of development. There is no obvious sequential growth pattern, and virtually no gradient in 210 Pb/Pb across the second sample. This is consistent with alteration of the original 210 Pb/Pb distribution by extensive remobilization reactions which are inferred from the mineralogic and textural relationships of the sample. (orig.)

  17. Assessment of renewable energy reserves in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Falin; Lu, Shyi-Min; Tseng, Kuo-Tung; Wang, Eric; Lee, Si-Chen

    2010-01-01

    Since Taiwan imports more than 99% of energy supply from foreign countries, energy security has always been the first priority for government to formulate energy policy. The development of renewable energy not only contributes to the independence of energy supply, but also achieves benefits of economic development and environmental protection. Based upon information available to public, the present paper reassesses reserves of various renewable energies in Taiwan. The assessment includes seven kinds of renewable energies, namely, solar energy, wind power, biomass energy, wave energy, tidal energy, geothermal energy and hydropower, which are all commercialized and matured in terms of current technologies. Other renewable energies, which have not proven as matured as the aforementioned ones, are only assessed preliminarily in this paper, such as second generation of biomass, deep geothermal energy, the Kuroshio power generation and ocean thermal energy conversion. According to the estimation of this paper, the reserve of wind energy, up to 29.9 kWh/d/p (i.e., kWh per day per person), is the largest one among seven kinds of renewable energies in Taiwan, followed by 24.27 kWh/d/p of solar energy, 4.55 kWh/d/p of biomass, 4.58 kWh/d/p of ocean energy, 0.67 kWh/d/p of geothermal energy and 16.79 kWh/d/p of hydropower. If regarding biomass as a primary energy, and assuming 40% being the average efficiency to convert primary energy into electricity, the total power of the seven kinds of renewable energy reserves is about 78.03 kWh/d/p, which is equal to 2.75 times of 28.35 kWh/d/p of national power generation in 2008. If the reserves of 54.93 kWh/d/p estimated from other four kinds of renewable energies that have not technically matured yet are also taken into account, it will result that the reserves of renewable energy in Taiwan can be quite abundant. Although the results of the assessment point out that Taiwan has abundant renewable energy resources, the four inherent

  18. Assessment of Body Reserves in Camels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Faye

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Herbivores manage their body reserves in a way that helps them respond to variations in the quality and accessibility of feed resources. Assessing these reserves provides farmers with a decision-making tool. Almost no data are available on these aspects of the camel. The present article summarizes several works on weight estimations that are used to assess the volume and weight of the hump (main location of fat reserves, relationships between hump measurements and carcass weight, and between hump weight and perirenal fat weight. Assessing the number and size of adipocytes is a means to test the relevance of these types of fat storage. There is in particular a positive relationship between the size and number of adipocytes in the hump and those in the perirenal fat. The age and sex effects were very pronounced for some of the criteria. A body condition score was established for this species based on the assessment of selected body parts. Results however showed that the hump was not a good bodycondition indicator because of variations in its weight as well as in the size of its adipocytes.

  19. Urban Growth in a Fragmented Landscape: Estimating the Relationship between Landscape Pattern and Urban Land Use Change in Germany, 2000-2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, R.

    2013-12-01

    One of the highest priorities in the conservation and management of biodiversity, natural resources and other vital ecosystem services is the assessment of the mechanisms that drive urban land use change. Using key landscape indicators, this study addresses why urban land increased 6 percent overall in Germany from 2000-2006. Building on regional science and economic geography research, I develop a model of landscape change that integrates remotely sensed and other geospatial data, and socioeconomic data in a spatial autoregressive model to explain the variance in urban land use change observed in German kreise (counties) over the past decade. The results reveal three key landscape mechanisms that drive urban land use change across Germany, aligning with those observed in US studies: (1) the level of fragmentation, (2) the share of designated protected areas, and (3) the share of prime soil. First, as fragmentation of once continuous habitats in the landscape increases, extensive urban growth follows. Second, designated protected areas have the perverse effect of hastening urbanization in surrounding areas. Third, greater shares of prime, productive soil experienced less urban land take over the 6 year period, an effect that is stronger in the former East Germany, where the agricultural sector remains large. The results suggest that policy makers concentrate their conservation efforts on preexisting fragmented land with high shares of protected areas in Germany to effectively stem urban land take. Given that comparative studies of land use change are vital for the scientific community to grasp the wider global process of urbanization and coincident ecological impacts, the methodology employed here is easily exportable to land cover and land use research programs in other fields and geographic areas. Key words: Urban land use change, Ecosystem services, Landscape fragmentation, Remote sensing, Spatial regression models, GermanyOLS and Spatial Autoregressive Model

  20. New diagnostic tests of GH reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martul, P; Pineda, J; Pombo, M; Peñalva, A; Bokser, L; Dieguez, C

    1993-01-01

    Pharmacological tests are essential for the diagnosis of growth hormone (GH) insufficiency. Obesity is a pathological state associated with blunted GH response to all the classical stimuli tested. In the present study, three new pharmacological stimuli for GH reserve were evaluated in three groups of subjects: Normal, GH-insufficient and normal growing obese children. Dexamethasone provokes a clear GH-response in normal children, whereas the response in the other 2 groups of patients is significantly diminished. Galanin-induced GH-secretion is significantly higher in normal than in obese children. GHRP-6 causes a potent GH release in normal children, higher than in GH-insufficiency or obesity. The overlap shown between GH-insufficient patients and normal children reduces the usefulness of the tests. Similar to the classical stimuli, the response to these new tests is also decreased in obesity.

  1. Foreign Exchange Reserves: Bangladesh Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Zahangir Alam

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study is about foreign exchangereserves of Bangladesh. The mainpurpose of this study is to the influence of exchange rates on foreign exchangereserves to the Bangladesh context.  Both the primary and secondary data has been used inthis study. The primary data has been collected through a structuredquestionnaire from 50 respondents. The secondary data, namely Bangladeshforeign exchange reserves (FER, Bangladesh current account balance (CAB,Bangladesh capital andfinancial account balance (CFAB, and BDT/USD exchange rates (ER.  This study covers yearly data from July 01,1996 to June 30, 2005 and quarterly data from July 01, 2005 to June 30, 2012. Findingsof this study shows that out of the selected 16 factors affecting foreignexchange reserves, exchange rates occupy the first position, weighted averagescore (WAS being 4.56. Foreign exchange reserves (FER and current accountbalance (CAB have increased by 502.9087% and 1451.218%,whereas capital and financial account (CFAB has decreased by -649.024% on June30, 2012 compared to June 30, 1997. The influence of other factors heldconstant, as ER changes by 285.6894 units due to one unit change in FER, onaverage in the same direction which represents that ER has positive effect on theFER and this relationship is statistically significant.  62.1526 percentof the variation in FER is explained by ER. The outcomes of Breusch-Godfrey test (LM test, ARCHtest, and the Normality test are that there is a serial correlation among residuals, the variance of residuals is notconstant, and the residuals are not normally distributed.

  2. Naval Reserve Annual Operating Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-10-29

    C. c ) CPi i 0 0 00 0 le C C.C~r In 1]1 In 00 It .- I to C-38 ’U2 WIX ’W~ - m u. -C-LC m4 C v , v ul FA ?w % -D 1 o r cl jc j, II t %c oK W)i Ir of... platform programs, while Program 11 contains 26 sub-programs each having a separate Reserve program sponsor. The distribution of Program 11 resources is...a mix of specific skills required to bring an active Navy oper-Iating platform to organizational manning. Each SRU is tailored to a specific ship

  3. Tree Nonstructural Carbohydrate Reserves Across Eastern US Temperate Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantooth, J.; Dietze, M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the roles, importance, and dynamics of tree non-structural carbohydrates (NSCs) is currently an active area of research. The question of how the relationships between NSCs, growth, and mortality can be used to develop more accurate projections of forest dynamics is central to this research. To begin to address this question, we have asked an even more fundamental question: How much are trees allocating carbon to storage, in the form of NSCs, versus new growth? Ecological theory predicts that there should be trade-offs between different plant life history strategies provided that there are the carbon mass-balance constraints to enforce these trade-offs. Current data on tree NSCs lack the spatial and taxonomic extent required to properly address this question. Therefore, we established a network of forest inventory plots at ten sites across the eastern US and measured growth in adult trees using increment cores and repeat measures of diameter at breast height (DBH). Increment cores were also used to measure sapwood NSCs. We hypothesized that across the eastern US, shade tolerant species, e.g. Sugar Maple (Acer saccharum) have the largest NSC reserves and that shade intolerant species have the lowest reserves. We also hypothesized that NSC reserves increase with temperature and precipitation, as with growth, and that within species NSC reserves increase with growth rate. Initial analyses of tree NSCs indicates that trees of intermediate shade tolerance, e.g. Red Oak (Quercus rubra) have the highest concentrations of sapwood NSCs, and among the highest growth rates. Across the entire study region, NSC concentrations are positively correlated with tree size and growth rate. Within species, NSC concentrations are also positively correlated with growth rate. Across functional groups healthy individuals have significantly higher sapwood NSC concentrations than visibly stressed individuals. There are also significantly lower NSC concentrations in sapwood of

  4. A Century in Reserve and Beyond

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Monagle, James P

    2008-01-01

    ... Reserve, this Strategy Research Project (SRP) describes the role of the Army Reserve from its beginning as a reserve corps of medical doctors to that of a strategic reserve force, and then to its current operational role...

  5. Nonparametric estimation of age-specific reference percentile curves with radial smoothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiaohai; Qu, Yongming; Huang, Yao; Zhang, Xiao; Song, Hanping; Jiang, Honghua

    2012-01-01

    Reference percentile curves represent the covariate-dependent distribution of a quantitative measurement and are often used to summarize and monitor dynamic processes such as human growth. We propose a new nonparametric method based on a radial smoothing (RS) technique to estimate age-specific reference percentile curves assuming the underlying distribution is relatively close to normal. We compared the RS method with both the LMS and the generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) methods using simulated data and found that our method has smaller estimation error than the two existing methods. We also applied the new method to analyze height growth data from children being followed in a clinical observational study of growth hormone treatment, and compared the growth curves between those with growth disorders and the general population. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Oak Ridge Reservation environmental report for 1991

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mucke, P.C.

    1992-10-01

    The Oak Ridge Reservation Environmental Report for 1991 is the 21st in a series that began in 1971. The report documents the annual results of a comprehensive program to estimate the impact of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge operations upon human health and the environment. The report is organized into ten sections that address various aspects of effluent monitoring, environmental surveillance, dose assessment, waste management, and quality assurance. A compliance summary gives a synopsis of the status of each facility relative to applicable state and federal regulations. Data are included for the following: Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant; Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and Oak Ridge K-25 Site. Effluent monitoring and environmental surveillance programs are intended to serve as effective indicators of contaminant releases and ambient contaminant concentrations that have the potential to result in adverse impacts to human health and the environment

  7. Coal: resources, reserves and production - Panorama 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    For the French, whose last coal mine closed in 2004, the 'comeback' of coal as a political issue may seem a bit surprising. Even if coal is still used in domestic industry and to produce electricity, it is many years since it was used as the primary energy source for electricity production. This situation, specific to France and certain European countries, is not at all typical of the world situation: in the face of surging energy demand, coal - whose reserves have been estimated by the World Energy Council to cover 145 years of consumption at the current rate - seems to be an energy of the future and an alternative to oil, natural gas and nuclear power for the production of electricity

  8. North sea: a quarter of total's reserves (excluding the Middle East)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1995-01-01

    In 1994, for the fifth successive year, Total increased its proven reserves of hydrocarbons which reach 4.3 Gboe (+ 6% compared to 1993). Outside the Middle East, the reserves show a development of 9% and reach the threshold of 2 Gboe. In 1994, Total's production of hydrocarbons reached 633,000 boe/d (+ 4%), despite a fall of 3% in oil production in the Middle East. Excluding the Middle East, production was increased to 345,000 boe/d (+ 12%), including 212,000 boe/d for gas (+ 20%). Exploration/production investments were 5.8 GF in 1994 (excluding labour) and the development program for reserves and production for the coming years is based on yearly investments of some 6 GF. Total's production in Europe, essentially in the North Sea, was 154,000 boe/d in 1994 (+ 12%). This zone has potential for significant growth for the group which has undertaken exploration surveys in the Western Shetlands and in Haltenbanken. In the British zone, the Dunbar field and its neighbour Ellon were brought into production in December 1994. In the Norwegian zone, the Froy field, was brought into production last June. In the Lille-Frigg field, whose production started in May, initial reserves are estimated at 6,7 Bcm of gas. Total Norge AS also has interests in the producing fields of Ekofisk, Frigg, East-Frigg, Heimdal, Sleipner East, Veslefrikk, Oseberg, Brage, in those of Sleipner West and Huldra (start-up scheduled for 1997) and in Troll (phase 1) which should be producing in 1996. In the Dutch zone, the K4b and K5a blocks brought into production last November hold reserves estimated at 20 Bcm; their production could reach 2 Bcm/year as from 1995. (authors). 1 tab., 1 photo

  9. Fundamental Drivers of the Cost and Price of Operating Reserves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hummon, Marissa [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Denholm, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jorgenson, Jennie [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Palchak, David [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kirby, Brendan [Kirby Consultant; Ma, Ookie [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Operating reserves impose a cost on the electric power system by forcing system operators to keep partially loaded spinning generators available for responding to system contingencies variable demand. In many regions of the United States, thermal power plants provide a large fraction of the operating reserve requirement. Alternative sources of operating reserves, such as demand response and energy storage, may provide more efficient sources of these reserves. However, to estimate the potential value of these services, the cost of reserve services under various grid conditions must first be established. This analysis used a commercial grid simulation tool to evaluate the cost and price of several operating reserve services, including spinning contingency reserves and upward regulation reserves. These reserve products were evaluated in a utility system in the western United States, considering different system flexibilities, renewable energy penetration, and other sensitivities. The analysis demonstrates that the price of operating reserves depend highly on many assumptions regarding the operational flexibility of the generation fleet, including ramp rates and the fraction of fleet available to provide reserves.

  10. Definitions and guidelines for classification of oil and gas reserves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeSorcy, G.J.; Warne, G.A.; Ashton, B.R.; Campbell, G.R.; Collyer, D.R.; Drury, J.; Lang, R.V.; Robertson, W.D.; Robinson, J.G.; Tutt, D.W

    1993-05-01

    The unpredictability of estimating reserves of oil and gas has made it imperative to develop a universal set of definitions and guidelines for calculating and classifying reserves. A committee of representatives from the oil and gas industry, consulting firms, industry associations, regulatory agencies, government, and financial organizations in Canada has prepared definitions of oil and gas resources and reserves, as well as a recommended classification system for those reserves. The committee believes these definitions and guidelines are suitable for use with respect to all types of oil and gas and related substances, including offshore situations and oil sands. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods are presented, as well as guidelines for specific methods including the volumetric, material balance, decline curve analysis, and reservoir simulation methods. The guidelines also consider reserves from improved recovery projects and reserves of natural gas liquids and sulfur. A glossary of terms is appended. 14 figs.

  11. Effect of massing on larval growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Aidan P; Wallman, James F

    2014-08-01

    Estimation of minimum postmortem interval commonly relies on predicting the age of blowfly larvae based on their size and an estimate of the temperatures to which they have been exposed throughout their development. The majority of larval growth rate data have been developed using small larval masses in order to avoid excess heat generation. The current study collected growth rate data for larvae at different mass volumes, and assessed the temperature production of these masses, for two forensically important blow fly species, Chrysomya rufifacies and Calliphora vicina. The growth rate of larvae in a small mass, exposed to the higher temperatures equivalent to those experienced by large masses, was also assessed to determine if observed differences were due to the known temperature effects of maggot masses. The results showed that temperature production increased with increasing mass volume, with temperature increases of 11 °C observed in the large Ch. rufifacies masses and increases of 5 °C in the large C. vicina masses. Similarly, the growth rate of the larvae was affected by mass size. The larvae from small masses grown at the higher temperatures experienced by large masses displayed an initial delay in growth, but then grew at a similar rate to those larvae at a constant 23 °C. Since these larvae from masses of equivalent sizes displayed similar patterns of growth rate, despite differing temperatures, and these growth rates differed from larger masses exposed to the same temperatures, it can be concluded that larval growth rate within a mass may be affected by additional factors other than temperature. Overall, this study highlights the importance of understanding the role of massing in larval development and provides initial developmental data for mass sizes of two forensically important blowfly species commonly encountered in Australian forensic casework. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Benjamin S; Regan, Helen M; Possingham, Hugh P; McCarthy, Michael A

    2006-01-01

    Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

  13. Classification of uranium reserves/resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-08-01

    Projections of future availability of uranium to meet present and future nuclear power requirements depend on the reliability of uranium resource estimates. Lack of harmony of the definition of the different classes of uranium reserves and resources between countries makes the compilation and analysis of such information difficult. The problem was accentuated in the early 1990s with the entry of uranium producing countries from the former Soviet Union, eastern Europe and China into the world uranium supply market. The need for an internationally acceptable reserve/resource classification system and terminology using market based criteria is therefore obvious. This publication was compiled from participant's contributions and findings of the Consultants Meetings on Harmonization of Uranium Resource Assessment Concepts held in Vienna from 22 to 25 June 1992, and two Consultants Meetings on the Development of a More Meaningful Classification of Uranium Resources held in Kiev, Ukraine on 24-26 April 1995 and 20-23 August 1996. This document includes 11 contributions, summary, list of participants of the Consultants Meetings. Each contribution has been indexed and provided with an abstract

  14. Deterministic claims reserving in short-term insuarance contracts ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Claims reserving for general insurance business has developed significantly over the recent past. This has been occasioned by the growth of the insurance market, with the risk underwriting process becoming more and more complex. New insurance products have been developed that cater for the more specific needs of ...

  15. Flexible reserve markets for wind integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Alisha R.

    reserve market, identifying the operational constraints that inhibit a multi-purpose dam facility to meet the desired flexible energy demand. The second study transitions from the hydroelectric facility as the decision maker providing flex reserve services to the wind plant as the decision maker purchasing these services. In this second study, methods for allocating the costs of flex reserve services under different wind policy scenarios are explored that aggregate farms into different groupings to identify the least-cost strategy for balancing the costs of hourly day-ahead forecast errors. The least-cost strategy may be different for an individual wind plant and for the system operator, noting that the least-cost strategy is highly sensitive to cost allocation and aggregation schemes. The latter may also cause cross-subsidies in the cost for balancing wind forecast errors among the different wind farms. The third study builds from the second, with the objective to quantify the amount of flex reserves needed for balancing future forecast errors using a probabilistic approach (quantile regression) to estimating future forecast errors. The results further examine the usefulness of separate flexible markets PJM could use for balancing oversupply and undersupply events, similar to the regulation up and down markets used in Europe. These three studies provide the following results and insights to large-scale wind integration using actual PJM wind farm data that describe the markets and generators within PJM. • Chapter 2 provides an in-depth analysis of the valuable, yet highly-constrained, energy services multi-purpose hydroelectric facilities can provide, though the opportunity cost for providing these services can result in large deviations from the reservoir policies with minimal revenue gain in comparison to dedicating the whole of dam capacity to providing day-ahead, baseload generation. • Chapter 3 quantifies the system-wide efficiency gains and the distributive

  16. Reserves reporting for decision-making planning and control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgins, G.

    1992-01-01

    This paper shows how the established Monte Carlo simulation approach to estimating hydrocarbon reserves can be expanded to provide the basis of a comprehensive valuation, planning and control system meeting all the reserve reporting requirements of an oil exploration and production company. The approach presented is also appropriate for other mining and extractive industries. The paper demonstrates how individual expectation curves can be modified to reflect both technically and commercially recoverable reserves and how these are in turn combined into the economic valuation, planning and control processes of an enterprise. Estimates across the full range of risk and reserves can be aggregated to provide a powerful planning tool that can be used to set corporate, divisional and individual objectives

  17. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    This report presents estimates of proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids as of December 31, 1991, as well as production volumes for the United States, and selected States and State subdivisions for the year 1991. Estimates are presented for the following four categories of natural gas: total gas (wet after lease separation), its two major components (nonassociated and associated-dissolved gas), and total dry gas (wet gas adjusted for the removal of liquids at natural gas processing plants). In addition, two components of natural gas liquids, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids, have their reserves and production data presented. Also included is information on indicated additional crude oil reserves and crude oil, natural gas, and lease condensate reserves in nonproducing reservoirs. A discussion of notable oil and gas exploration and development activities during 1991 is also presented

  18. Growth assessment in diagnosis of Fetal Growth Restriction. Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albu, A R; Horhoianu, I A; Dumitrascu, M C; Horhoianu, V

    2014-06-15

    The assessment of fetal growth represents a fundamental step towards the identification of the true growth restricted fetus that is associated to important perinatal morbidity and mortality. The possible ways of detecting abnormal fetal growth are taken into consideration in this review and their strong and weak points are discussed. An important debate still remains about how to discriminate between the physiologically small fetus that does not require special surveillance and the truly growth restricted fetus who is predisposed to perinatal complications, even if its parameters are above the cut-off limits established. In this article, we present the clinical tools of fetal growth assessment: Symphyseal-Fundal Height (SFH) measurement, the fetal ultrasound parameters widely taken into consideration when discussing fetal growth: Abdominal Circumference (AC) and Estimated Fetal Weight (EFW); several types of growth charts and their characteristics: populational growth charts, standard growth charts, individualized growth charts, customized growth charts and growth trajectories.

  19. Dynamics of International Reserve Accumulation in Turkish Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duygu Ayhan

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Many of the emerging market economies embody macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities due to large deficits, high inflation, slowing growth and heavy reliance on short-term capital inflows. Therefore, accumulation of international reserve holdings has been frequently used by authorities to serve as an insurance against the volatility of the capital flows and strengthen the fragile nature of these economies. Turkish economy, classified as one of the most fragile of the emerging economies, has been experiencing a similar process of international reserve accumulation. The chronically high current account deficit and low savings rate boost the importance of international reserves. Thus, the aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international reserves in Turkey. The dataset covers the 2000-2013 period. Consequently, we find that the international reserve accumulation is mainly explained by current account balance, per capita income and past crisis experience.

  20. Triplet ultrasound growth parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vora, Neeta L; Ruthazer, Robin; House, Michael; Chelmow, David

    2006-03-01

    To create ultrasound growth curves for normal growth of fetal triplets using statistical methodology that properly accounts for similarities of growth of fetuses within a mother as well as repeated measurements over time for each fetus. In this longitudinal study, all triplet pregnancies managed at a single tertiary center from 1992-2004 were reviewed. Fetuses with major anomalies, prior selective reduction, or fetal demise were excluded. Data from early and late gestation in which there were fewer than 30 fetal measurements available for analysis were excluded. We used multilevel models to account for variation in growth within a single fetus over time, variations in growth between multiple fetuses within a single mother, and variations in fetal growth between mothers. Medians (50th), 10th, and 90th percentiles were estimated by the creation of multiple quadratic growth models from bootstrap samples adapting a previously published method to compute prediction intervals. Estimated fetal weight was derived from Hadlock's formula. One hundred fifty triplet pregnancies were identified. Twenty-seven pregnancies were excluded for the following reasons: missing records (23), fetal demise (3), and fetal anomaly (1). The study group consisted of 123 pregnancies. The gestational age range was restricted to 14-34 weeks. Figures and tables were developed showing medians, 10th and 90th percentiles for estimated fetal weight, femur length, biparietal diameter, abdominal circumference, and head circumference. Growth curves for triplet pregnancies were derived. These may be useful for identification of abnormal growth in triplet fetuses. III.

  1. Delayed growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Slow rate of growth; Retarded growth and development; Growth delay Images Toddler development References Cooke DW, Divall SA, Radovick S. Normal and aberrant growth in children. In: Melmed S, Polonsky KS, Larsen PR, ...

  2. Alternative measures of the Federal Reserve Banks' cost of equity capital

    OpenAIRE

    Barnes, Michelle L.; Lopez, Jose A.

    2005-01-01

    The Monetary Control Act of 1980 requires the Federal Reserve System to provide payment services to depository institutions through the twelve Federal Reserve Banks at prices that fully reflect the costs a private-sector provider would incur, including a cost of equity capital (COE). Although Fama and French (1997) conclude that COE estimates are “woefully” and “unavoidably” imprecise, the Reserve Banks require such an estimate every year. We examine several COE estimates based on the Capital...

  3. Parameter Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Heitzig, Martina; Cameron, Ian

    2011-01-01

    of optimisation techniques coupled with dynamic solution of the underlying model. Linear and nonlinear approaches to parameter estimation are investigated. There is also the application of maximum likelihood principles in the estimation of parameters, as well as the use of orthogonal collocation to generate a set......In this chapter the importance of parameter estimation in model development is illustrated through various applications related to reaction systems. In particular, rate constants in a reaction system are obtained through parameter estimation methods. These approaches often require the application...... of algebraic equations as the basis for parameter estimation.These approaches are illustrated using estimations of kinetic constants from reaction system models....

  4. Reserves in western basins: Part 1, Greater Green River basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-10-01

    This study characterizes an extremely large gas resource located in low permeability, overpressured sandstone reservoirs located below 8,000 feet drill depth in the Greater Green River basin, Wyoming. Total in place resource is estimated at 1,968 Tcf. Via application of geologic, engineering and economic criteria, the portion of this resource potentially recoverable as reserves is estimated. Those volumes estimated include probable, possible and potential categories and total 33 Tcf as a mean estimate of recoverable gas for all plays considered in the basin. Five plays (formations) were included in this study and each was separately analyzed in terms of its overpressured, tight gas resource, established productive characteristics and future reserves potential based on a constant $2/Mcf wellhead gas price scenario. A scheme has been developed to break the overall resource estimate down into components that can be considered as differing technical and economic challenges that must be overcome in order to exploit such resources: in other words, to convert those resources to economically recoverable reserves. Total recoverable reserves estimates of 33 Tcf do not include the existing production from overpressured tight reservoirs in the basin. These have estimated ultimate recovery of approximately 1.6 Tcf, or a per well average recovery of 2.3 Bcf. Due to the fact that considerable pay thicknesses can be present, wells can be economic despite limited drainage areas. It is typical for significant bypassed gas to be present at inter-well locations because drainage areas are commonly less than regulatory well spacing requirements.

  5. 24 CFR 891.605 - Replacement reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserve. 891.605... 8 Assistance § 891.605 Replacement reserve. (a) Establishment of reserve. The Borrower shall establish and maintain a replacement reserve to aid in funding extraordinary maintenance, and repair and...

  6. 24 CFR 891.405 - Replacement reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserve. 891.405....405 Replacement reserve. (a) Establishment of reserve. The Owner shall establish and maintain a replacement reserve to aid in funding extraordinary maintenance and repair and replacement of capital items...

  7. Veterinary Science Students, Center Changing a Reservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwater, Jasmine

    2011-01-01

    Kayenta is a rural community located in northeastern Arizona on a Navajo reservation. On the reservation, many families rely on their livestock for income, and as a result, many reservation high school students show a great interest in agricultural education. Having livestock on the reservation is not just a source of income, but also part of a…

  8. Calculation program development for spinning reserve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    This study is about optimal holding of spinning reserve and optimal operation for it. It deals with the purpose and contents of the study, introduction of the spinning reserve electricity, speciality of the spinning reserve power, the result of calculation, analysis for limited method of optimum load, calculation of requirement for spinning reserve, analysis on measurement of system stability with summary, purpose of the analysis, cause of impact of the accident, basics on measurement of spinning reserve and conclusion. It has the reference on explanation for design of spinning reserve power program and using and trend about spinning reserve power in Korea.

  9. US crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids reserves: 1990 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The primary focus of this report is to provide an accurate estimate of US proved reserves of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. These estimates were considered essential to the development, implementation, and evaluation of natural energy policy and legislation. In the past, the government and the public relied upon industry estimates of proved reserves. These estimates were prepared jointly by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the American Gas Association (AGA) and published in their annual report, Reserves of Crude Oil, Natural Gas Liquids, and Natural Gas in the United States and Canada. However, API and AGA ceased publication of reserves estimates after their 1979 report. By the mid-1970's, various federal agencies had separately established programs to collect data on, verify, or independently estimate domestic proved reserves of crude oil or natural gas. Each program was narrowly defined to meet the particular needs of the sponsoring agency. In response to recognized need for unified, comprehensive proved reserves estimates, Congress in 1977 required the Department of Energy to prepare such estimates. To meet this requirement, the EIA's reserves program was undertaken to establish a unified, verifiable, comprehensive, and continuing statistical series for proved reserves of crude oil and natural gas. The program was expanded to include proved reserves of natural gas liquids in the 1979 report. 36 refs., 11 figs., 16 tabs

  10. Role of nature reserves in giant panda protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Dongwei; Li, Junqing

    2018-02-01

    Giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) is a flagship species in nature conservation of the world; to protect this species, 67 nature reserves have been established in China. To evaluate the protection effect of giant panda nature reserves, we analyzed the variation of giant panda number and habitat area of 23 giant panda nature reserves of Sichuan province based on the national survey data released by State Forestry Administration and Sichuan Forestry Department. Results showed that from the third national survey to the fourth, giant panda number and habitat area of 23 giant panda nature reserves of Sichuan province failed to realize the significant increase. Furthermore, we found that the total population growth rate of 23 nature reserves in the last 12 years was lower than those of the province total of Sichuan and the national total of China, and the total habitat area of the 23 nature reserves was decreasing in the last 12 years, but the province total and national total were all increasing. We propose that giant panda protection should pay more attention to how to improve the protective effects of nature reserves.

  11. THE EFFECT OF CHANGES IN RESERVE REQUIREMENTS DURING THE 1930s:

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Mayer; Thomas F. Cargill

    2004-01-01

    The differential response of cash reserves of member banks and nonmember banks not subject to the 1936-37 increase in reserve requirements is estimated to determine whether the 1937-38 recession was caused by the increase in reserve requirements. We identify 17 states that maintained constant reserve requirements from June 1934 to June 1941. While member banks increased their cash reserve ratios relative to nonmember banks, the magnitude of the adjustment is too small to have contributed to t...

  12. Introducing optional reserve ratios in Hungary

    OpenAIRE

    Lóránt Varga

    2010-01-01

    As of the reserve maintenance period commencing in November 2010, Hungarian credit institutions will be free to decide whether to apply the previously valid 2% reserve ratio, or to apply a higher mandatory reserve ratio. Credit institutions required to hold reserves may select from reserve ratios of 2, 3, 4 and 5%, and may change their decision on a semi-annual basis. In line with the international best practice, the purpose of the MNB’s reserve requirement system is to support credit institu...

  13. Coal: resources, reserves and production - Panorama 2008; Charbon: ressources, reserves et production - Panorama 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    For the French, whose last coal mine closed in 2004, the 'comeback' of coal as a political issue may seem a bit surprising. Even if coal is still used in domestic industry and to produce electricity, it is many years since it was used as the primary energy source for electricity production. This situation, specific to France and certain European countries, is not at all typical of the world situation: in the face of surging energy demand, coal - whose reserves have been estimated by the World Energy Council to cover 145 years of consumption at the current rate - seems to be an energy of the future and an alternative to oil, natural gas and nuclear power for the production of electricity.

  14. Commercial helium reserves, continental rifting and volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballentine, C. J.; Barry, P. H.; Hillegonds, D.; Fontijn, K.; Bluett, J.; Abraham-James, T.; Danabalan, D.; Gluyas, J.; Brennwald, M. S.; Pluess, B.; Seneshens, D.; Sherwood Lollar, B.

    2017-12-01

    Helium has many industrial applications, but notably provides the unique cooling medium for superconducting magnets in medical MRI scanners and high energy beam lines. In 2013 the global supply chainfailed to meet demand causing significant concern - the `Liquid Helium Crisis' [1]. The 2017 closure of Quatar borders, a major helium supplier, is likely to further disrupt helium supply, and accentuates the urgent need to diversify supply. Helium is found in very few natural gas reservoirs that have focused 4He produced by the dispersed decay (a-particle) of U and Th in the crust. We show here, using the example of the Rukwa section of the Tanzanian East African Rift, how continental rifting and local volcanism provides the combination of processes required to generate helium reserves. The ancient continental crust provides the source of 4He. Rifting and associated magmatism provides the tectonic and thermal mechanism to mobilise deep fluid circulation, focusing flow to the near surface along major basement faults. Helium-rich springs in the Tanzanian Great Rift Valley were first identified in the 1950's[2]. The isotopic compositions and major element chemistry of the gases from springs and seeps are consistent with their release from the crystalline basement during rifting [3]. Within the Rukwa Rift Valley, helium seeps occur in the vicinity of trapping structures that have the potential to store significant reserves of helium [3]. Soil gas surveys over 6 prospective trapping structures (1m depth, n=1486) show helium anomalies in 5 out of the 6 at levels similar to those observed over a known helium-rich gas reservoir at 1200m depth (7% He - Harley Dome, Utah). Detailed macroseep gas compositions collected over two days (n=17) at one site allows us to distinguish shallow gas contributions and shows the deep gas to contain between 8-10% helium, significantly increasing resource estimates based on uncorrected values (1.8-4.2%)[2,3]. The remainder of the deep gas is

  15. Reservation wages, expected wages and unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, S; Taylor, K

    2013-01-01

    We model unemployment duration, reservation and expected wages simultaneously for individuals not in work, where wage expectations are identified via an exogenous policy shock. The policy shock increased expected wages, which were found to be positively associated with reservation wages.

  16. Transforming the Reserve Component: Four Essays

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Binnendijk, Hans; Baranick, Michael J; Bell, Raymond E., Jr; Cordero, Gina; Duncan, Stephen M; Holshek, Christopher; Wentz, Larry

    2005-01-01

    This volume contains four essays on various aspects of the Reserve Component. We publish it at a time when Reserves are serving overseas at historically high rates and when new missions like homeland security demand their attention...

  17. 47 CFR 25.219 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 25.219 Section 25.219 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Technical Standards § 25.219 [Reserved] ...

  18. 47 CFR 25.402 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 25.402 Section 25.402 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES SATELLITE COMMUNICATIONS Competitive Bidding Procedures for DARS § 25.402 [Reserved] ...

  19. Reservation system with graphical user interface

    KAUST Repository

    Mohamed, Mahmoud A. Abdelhamid; Jamjoom, Hani T.; Podlaseck, Mark E.; Qu, Huiming; Shae, Zon-Yin; Sheopuri, Anshul

    2012-01-01

    Techniques for providing a reservation system are provided. The techniques include displaying a scalable visualization object, wherein the scalable visualization object comprises an expanded view element of the reservation system depicting

  20. 47 CFR 80.146 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... MARITIME SERVICES Operating Requirements and Procedures Shipboard General Purpose Watches § 80.146 [Reserved] ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 80.146 Section 80.146...

  1. 47 CFR 80.145 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... MARITIME SERVICES Operating Requirements and Procedures Special Procedures-Ship Stations § 80.145 [Reserved] Shipboard General Purpose Watches ... 47 Telecommunication 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 80.145 Section 80.145...

  2. 5 CFR 330.610 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 330.610 Section 330.610 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS RECRUITMENT, SELECTION, AND... Employees § 330.610 [Reserved] ...

  3. 5 CFR 330.603 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 330.603 Section 330.603 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS RECRUITMENT, SELECTION, AND... Employees § 330.603 [Reserved] ...

  4. 40 CFR 405.73 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 405.73 Section 405.73 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS DAIRY... § 405.73 [Reserved] ...

  5. 40 CFR 408.73 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 408.73 Section 408.73 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS... Processing Subcategory § 408.73 [Reserved] ...

  6. 40 CFR 407.73 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 407.73 Section 407.73 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS... Vegetables Subcategory § 407.73 [Reserved] ...

  7. Population status, demography and habitat preferences of the threatened lipstick palm Cyrtostachys renda Blume in Kerumutan Reserve, Sumatra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widyatmoko, Didik; Burgman, Mark A.; Guhardja, Edi; Mogea, Johanis P.; Walujo, Eko B.; Setiadi, Dede

    2005-09-01

    Population status and demography of a population of the threatened lipstick palm Cyrtostachys renda in a peat swamp ecosystem of Kerumutan Reserve, Sumatra (one of the largest remaining populations) was documented at 16 different sites, covering a wide range of forest and habitat types, vegetation associations, and population sizes. Population sizes were dominated by suckers comprising 89% of the total population. Individuals with stem heights between 0 and 4 m (47.5%), stem diameters between 4 and 10 cm (82.0%), and leaf scar numbers between 0 and 60 (69.2%) dominated. Ages of individuals were estimated and used to fit a curvilinear relationship between age and stem height. Wild plants reach reproductive maturity within 25-30 years, or when they have stem heights in excess of 2.0 m, or when they have 15-25 leaf scars. They can survive more than 80 years. Cultivated plants appear to reproduce earlier and produce more seeds than wild plants. Individual growth was plant size-dependent with the adult stage being the most productive. Higher mortality was experienced by suckers, especially in continuously waterlogged conditions and locations with dense canopies. Sucker growth was faster than seedling growth, an adaptation that may allow the species to cope with periodically waterlogged conditions. Population abundances varied with habitat types; well-drained areas were the most suitable habitat. To conserve the most important remaining populations of the lipstick palm, it is crucial to protect well-drained sites in Kerumutan Reserve.

  8. Reserve evaluation of minerals at NUCLEBRAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.; Guerra, P.A.G.; Vinha, C.A.G. da

    1980-10-01

    The method used for the reserve evaluation of minerals, particularly of uranium, as used worldwide, and specially at NUCLEBRAS is described. This is done through a series of procedures envolving basic definitions, reserve evaluation methods (conventional, statistical and geoestatistical), data management, use of computer systems, classification and evaluation of reserves. (Author) [pt

  9. 24 CFR 880.602 - Replacement reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserve. 880.602... Replacement reserve. (a) A replacement reserve must be established and maintained in an interest-bearing account to aid in funding extraordinary maintenance and repair and replacement of capital items. (1) Part...

  10. 24 CFR 891.745 - Replacement reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserve. 891.745... and Individuals-Section 162 Assistance § 891.745 Replacement reserve. The general requirements for the replacement reserve are provided in § 891.605. For projects funded under §§ 891.655 through 891.790, the...

  11. Poverty and corruption compromise tropical forest reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, S Joseph; Sanchez-Azofeifa, G Arturo; Portillo-Quintero, Carlos; Davies, Diane

    2007-07-01

    We used the global fire detection record provided by the satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to determine the number of fires detected inside 823 tropical and subtropical moist forest reserves and for contiguous buffer areas 5, 10, and 15 km wide. The ratio of fire detection densities (detections per square kilometer) inside reserves to their contiguous buffer areas provided an index of reserve effectiveness. Fire detection density was significantly lower inside reserves than in paired, contiguous buffer areas but varied by five orders of magnitude among reserves. The buffer: reserve detection ratio varied by up to four orders of magnitude among reserves within a single country, and median values varied by three orders of magnitude among countries. Reserves tended to be least effective at reducing fire frequency in many poorer countries and in countries beset by corruption. Countries with the most successful reserves include Costa Rica, Jamaica, Malaysia, and Taiwan and the Indonesian island of Java. Countries with the most problematic reserves include Cambodia, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Sierra Leone and the Indonesian portion of Borneo. We provide fire detection density for 3964 tropical and subtropical reserves and their buffer areas in the hope that these data will expedite further analyses that might lead to improved management of tropical reserves.

  12. Assessment of secondary aluminum reserves of nations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maung, Kyaw Nyunt; Yoshida, Tomoharu; Liu, Gang

    2017-01-01

    aluminum resources are accumulated in landfill sites. Understanding the sizes of primary and secondary aluminum reserves enables us to extend knowledge of efficient raw material sourcing from a narrow perspective of primary reserves alone to a broader perspective of both primary and secondary reserves...

  13. 24 CFR 572.125 - Replacement reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ...) Homeownership Program Requirements-Implementation Grants § 572.125 Replacement reserves. (a) Purpose. A single replacement reserve may be established for the homeownership program only if HUD determines it is necessary to... 24 Housing and Urban Development 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserves. 572.125...

  14. Micro-level stochastic loss reserving

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Plat, R.

    2010-01-01

    To meet future liabilities general insurance companies will set-up reserves. Predicting future cash-flows is essential in this process. Actuarial loss reserving methods will help them to do this in a sound way. The last decennium a vast literature about stochastic loss reserving for the general

  15. Evaluation system of minerals reserve at Nuclebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marques, J.P.M.; Guerra, P.A.G.; Vinha, C.A.G. da.

    1980-01-01

    The paper describes the methodology used for the reserve evaluation of minerals, particularly of uranium, as used world wide, and specially at Nuclebras. The paper discusses a series of procedures envolving basic definitions, reserve evaluation methods (Conventional, Statistical and Geoestatistical), data management, use of computer systems, classification of reserves as well as the results achieved [pt

  16. Reserve Requirements and Monetary Management; An Introduction

    OpenAIRE

    International Monetary Fund

    1993-01-01

    Reserve requirements are widely used by central banks as a means to improve monetary control, an instrument for policy implementation, a source of revenue, and a safeguard of bank liquidity. The effectiveness of reserve requirements in fulfilling these functions is reviewed, and the detailed modalities of their use are examined. Reserve requirements in a sample of developing countries are described.

  17. 42 CFR 417.934 - Reserve requirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reserve requirement. 417.934 Section 417.934 Public... PLANS Administration of Outstanding Loans and Loan Guarantees § 417.934 Reserve requirement. (a) Timing... section 1305 of the PHS Act was required to establish a restricted reserve account on the earlier of the...

  18. Growth conditions of 0-group plaice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cardoso, J.F.M.F.; Freitas, V.; de Paoli, H.; Witte, J.IJ.; van der Veer, H.W.

    2016-01-01

    Growth studies based on population-based growth estimates are limited by the fact that they do not take into account differences in age/size structure within the population. To overcome these problems, otolith microstructure analysis is often used to estimate individual growth. Here, we analyse

  19. Growth Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... too little of it may be very short. Treatment with growth hormone can stimulate growth. People can also have too much growth hormone. Usually the cause is a pituitary gland tumor, which is not cancer. Too much growth hormone can cause gigantism in children, where their bones and their body ...

  20. FASB statement 121 and other accounting issues affecting reserves reporting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowden, K R [Currie Coopers and Lybrand, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1996-03-01

    The provisions required by FASB 121, and their impact on oil and gas properties, were explained. This included the impact of FASB statement 121, accounting for the impairment of long-lived assets and for assets to be disposed of on oil and gas properties. A two-tiered approach to recognition and measurement was described, as well as how reserve estimates are used for measurement of impairment. Reserve reports were considered to be the basis for financial statement disclosure. Procedures for reporting of finding costs and acquisition costs according to FASB 69 were described, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reporting requirements were summarized.

  1. FASB statement 121 and other accounting issues affecting reserves reporting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowden, K.R.

    1996-01-01

    The provisions required by FASB 121, and their impact on oil and gas properties, were explained. This included the impact of FASB statement 121, accounting for the impairment of long-lived assets and for assets to be disposed of on oil and gas properties. A two-tiered approach to recognition and measurement was described, as well as how reserve estimates are used for measurement of impairment. Reserve reports were considered to be the basis for financial statement disclosure. Procedures for reporting of finding costs and acquisition costs according to FASB 69 were described, and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reporting requirements were summarized

  2. Classification system of the mineral reserves and resources of Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovinyukov, V.I.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes the system used to classify the resources and reserves of all minerals and fuels in Ukraine. The classification system is part of an official procedure determined by the Ukrainian State Commission on Reserves. Following preparation of resource estimates the results are registered with the State, which maintains an official inventory of all mineral resources. This paper compares the Ukrainian system to, and finds it compatible with the United Nations International Framework of resource classification. The UN system is based on economics of production and mineability. (author)

  3. Classification system of the mineral reserves and resources of Ukraine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovyunikov, V.I.

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the system used to classify the resources and reserves of all minerals and fuels in Ukraine. The classification system is part of an official procedures determined by the Ukrainian State Commission on Reserves. Following preparation of resource estimates the results are registered with the State, which maintains an official inventory of all mineral resources. This paper compares the Ukrainian system to, and finds it compatible with the United Nations International Framework of resources classification. The UN system is based on economics of production and mineability. (author). 1 tab

  4. The Nature and Use of Copper Reserve and Resource Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Dennis P.; Wright, Nancy A.; Coakley, George J.

    1981-01-01

    Copper reserve, resource, and production data can be combined to produce disaggregated resource estimates and trends and, when combined with demand forecasts, can be used to predict future exploration and development requirements. Reserve estimates are subject to uncertainties due mainly to incomplete exploration and rapidly changing economic conditions. United States' reserve estimates in the past have been low mainly because knowledge of the magnitude of very large porphyry-copper deposits has been incomplete. Present estimates are considerably more reliable because mining firms tend to drill out deposits fully before mining and to release their reserve estimates to the public. The sum of reserves and past production yields an estimate of the total ore, total metal contained in ore, and average grade of ore originally in each of the deposits known in the United States. For most deposits, estimates of total copper in ore are low relative to the total copper in mineralized rock, and many estimates are strongly affected by the economic behavior of mining firms. A better estimate of the real distribution of copper contained in deposits can be obtained by combining past production data with resource estimates. Copper resource data are disaggregated into categories that include resources in undeveloped deposits similar to those mined in the past, resources in mines closed because of unfavorable economic conditions, resources in deep deposits requiring high-cost mining methods, arid resources in deposits located in areas where environmental restrictions have contributed to delays in development. The largest resource is located in the five largest porphyry deposits. These deposits are now being mined but the resources are not included in the present mining plan. Resources in this last category will not contribute to supply until some future time when ores presently being mined are depleted. A high correlation exists between total copper contained in deposits and annual

  5. Aid and Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Tarp, Finn

    , are being drawn on the basis of fragile evidence. This paper first assesses the aid-growth literature with a focus on recent contributions. The aid-growth literature is then framed, for the first time, in terms of the Rubin Causal Model, applied at the macroeconomic level. Our results show that aid has......The micro-macro paradox has been revived. Despite broadly positive evaluations at the micro and meso-levels, recent literature has turned decidedly pessimistic with respect to the ability of foreign aid to foster economic growth. Policy implications, such as the complete cessation of aid to Africa...... a positive and statistically significant causal effect on growth over the long run with point estimates at levels suggested by growth theory. We conclude that aid remains an important tool for enhancing the development prospects of poor nations....

  6. Aid Effectiveness on Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doucouliagos, Hristos; Paldam, Martin

    The AEL (aid effectiveness literature) is econo¬metric studies of the macroeconomic effects of development aid. It contains about 100 papers of which 68 are reduced form estimates of theeffect of aid on growth in the recipient country. The raw data show that growth is unconnected to aid......, but the AEL has put so much structure on the data that all results possible have emerged. The present meta study considers both the best-set of the 68 papers and the all-set of 543 regressions published. Both sets have a positive average aid-growth elasticity, but it is small and insignificant: The AEL has...... betweenstudies is real. In particular, the aid-growth association is stronger for Asian countries, and the aid-growth association is shown to have been weaker in the 1970s....

  7. Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    During fiscal year 1992, the reserves generated $473 million in revenues, a $181 million decrease from the fiscal year 1991 revenues, primarily due to significant decreases in oil and natural gas prices. Total costs were $200 million, resulting in net cash flow of $273 million, compared with $454 million in fiscal year 1991. From 1976 through fiscal year 1992, the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves generated more than $15 billion in revenues and a net operating income after costs of $12.5 billion. In fiscal year 1992, production at the Naval Petroleum Reserves at maximum efficient rates yielded 26 million barrels of crude oil, 119 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 164 million gallons of natural gas liquids. From April to November 1992, senior managers from the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves held a series of three workshops in Boulder, Colorado, in order to build a comprehensive Strategic Plan as required by Secretary of Energy Notice 25A-91. Other highlights are presented for the following: Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1--production achievements, crude oil shipments to the strategic petroleum reserve, horizontal drilling, shallow oil zone gas injection project, environment and safety, and vanpool program; Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 2--new management and operating contractor and exploration drilling; Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 3--steamflood; Naval Oil Shale Reserves--protection program; and Tiger Team environmental assessment of the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming

  8. Buying versus exploring for reserves in the Canadian oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sayer, F.

    1992-01-01

    The issue of a business strategy for Canadian oil companies focussed on either buying reserves or on exploration is examined. A measurement of the amount of merger and acquisition (M ampersand A) transactions vs the amount of exploration activity shows that the number of M ampersand A transactions has risen from 262 in 1989 to an estimated 1,500 in 1992. This sales activity has partly resulted from major companies selling assets to pay down debt. In the same period, the number of licensed exploration wells has decreased from 2,800 to 1,500. An analysis of statistics on the costs of acquisitions vs cost of finding and development shows acquisitions costs are lower in all cases. In addition, the median acquisition price has been falling steadily. Buying reserves has other advantages, including the fact that reserves can be added more quickly, lower risk, and readily available financing. Exploration, however, has its advantages, including the potential for very large reserve additions, higher tax deductions and incentives available, less competition from the industry, and low input costs. The acquisition vs exploration strategies are illustrated using the stock performance of two companies. If the acquisitions trend continues, there will be increases in the profitability of existing reserves, the number of companies, and tax receipts, However, in the long term there will be a drop in Canadian reserves and a significant reduction in the size of the industry. 14 figs., 2 tabs

  9. Reserve valuation in electric power systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Pablo Ariel

    Operational reliability is provided in part by scheduling capacity in excess of the load forecast. This reserve capacity balances the uncertain power demand with the supply in real time and provides for equipment outages. Traditionally, reserve scheduling has been ensured by enforcing reserve requirements in the operations planning. An alternate approach is to employ a stochastic formulation, which allows the explicit modeling of the sources of uncertainty. This thesis compares stochastic and reserve methods and evaluates the benefits of a combined approach for the efficient management of uncertainty in the unit commitment problem. Numerical studies show that the unit commitment solutions obtained for the combined approach are robust and superior with respect to the traditional approach. These robust solutions are especially valuable in areas with a high proportion of wind power, as their built-in flexibility allows the dispatch of practically all the available wind power while minimizing the costs of operation. The scheduled reserve has an economic value since it reduces the outage costs. In several electricity markets, reserve demand functions have been implemented to take into account the value of reserve in the market clearing process. These often take the form of a step-down function at the reserve requirement level, and as such they may not appropriately represent the reserve value. The value of reserve is impacted by the reliability, dynamic and stochastic characteristics of system components, the system operation policies, and the economic aspects such as the risk preferences of the demand. In this thesis, these aspects are taken into account to approximate the reserve value and construct reserve demand functions. Illustrative examples show that the demand functions constructed have similarities with those implemented in some markets.

  10. The energy reserves of our planet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bischoff, G.

    1977-01-01

    Starting from a prognosis for the development of the world energy consumption, the situation of special primary energy sources (reserves, potential) is briefly described. According to the amount and location of the reserves - 90% of the fossil energy reserves are in industrialized countries -, coal will play a leading role in meeting the energy demands of the future. Without breeder reactors, the role of nuclear energy will be limited in time. (UA) [de

  11. Reserve reporting from a banker's perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, B.O.

    1996-01-01

    A banker's perspective of oil and gas reserve reporting was presented. Topics chosen for discussion emphasized oil and gas lending, and the type of capital which is most relevant to the oil and gas industry. The concept of capital differentiation, potential worst case, and least specialization, were explained. An explanation of the reasons for the lender's different perspective on reserves was given. Methods that banks use to limit risk, and the role that reserve reports play in loan approvals were also reviewed

  12. Reserve requirement systems in OECD countries

    OpenAIRE

    Yueh-Yun C. O’Brien

    2007-01-01

    This paper compares the reserve requirements of OECD countries. Reserve requirements are the minimum percentages or amounts of liabilities that depository institutions are required to keep in cash or as deposits with their central banks. To facilitate monetary policy implementation, twenty-four of the thirty OECD countries impose reserve requirements to influence their banking systems’ demand for liquidity. These include twelve OECD countries that are also members of the European Economic and...

  13. Total, accessible and reserve wind energy resources in Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, P.; Trifonova, L.

    1996-01-01

    The article is a part of the international project 'Bulgaria Country Study to Address Climate Change Inventory of the Greenhouse Gases Emission and Sinks Alternative Energy Balance and Technology Programs' sponsored by the Department of Energy, US. The 'total' average annual wind resources in Bulgaria determined on the basis wind velocity density for more than 100 meteorological stations are estimated on 125 000 TWh. For the whole territory the theoretical wind power potential is about 14200 GW. The 'accessible' wind resources are estimated on about 62000 TWh. The 'reserve' (or usable) wind resources are determined using 8 velocity intervals for WECS (Wind Energy Conversion Systems) operation, number and disposition of turbines, and the usable (3%) part of the territory. The annual reserve resources are estimated at about 21 - 33 TWh. The 'economically beneficial' wind resources (EBWR) are those part of the reserve resources which could be included in the country energy balance using specific technologies in specific time period. It is foreseen that at year 2010 the EBWR could reach 0.028 TWh. 7 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

  14. When will fossil fuel reserves be diminished?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafiee, Shahriar; Topal, Erkan

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil, coal and gas are the main resources for world energy supply. The size of fossil fuel reserves and the dilemma that 'when non-renewable energy will be diminished' is a fundamental and doubtful question that needs to be answered. This paper presents a new formula for calculating when fossil fuel reserves are likely to be depleted and develops an econometrics model to demonstrate the relationship between fossil fuel reserves and some main variables. The new formula is modified from the Klass model and thus assumes a continuous compound rate and computes fossil fuel reserve depletion times for oil, coal and gas of approximately 35, 107 and 37 years, respectively. This means that coal reserves are available up to 2112, and will be the only fossil fuel remaining after 2042. In the Econometrics model, the main exogenous variables affecting oil, coal and gas reserve trends are their consumption and respective prices between 1980 and 2006. The models for oil and gas reserves unexpectedly show a positive and significant relationship with consumption, while presenting a negative and significant relationship with price. The econometrics model for coal reserves, however, expectedly illustrates a negative and significant relationship with consumption and a positive and significant relationship with price. Consequently, huge reserves of coal and low-level coal prices in comparison to oil and gas make coal one of the main energy substitutions for oil and gas in the future, under the assumption of coal as a clean energy source

  15. Reservation system with graphical user interface

    KAUST Repository

    Mohamed, Mahmoud A. Abdelhamid

    2012-01-05

    Techniques for providing a reservation system are provided. The techniques include displaying a scalable visualization object, wherein the scalable visualization object comprises an expanded view element of the reservation system depicting information in connection with a selected interval of time and a compressed view element of the reservation system depicting information in connection with one or more additional intervals of time, maintaining a visual context between the expanded view and the compressed view within the visualization object, and enabling a user to switch between the expanded view and the compressed view to facilitate use of the reservation system.

  16. Markets slow to develop for Niger delta gas reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, D.

    1995-01-01

    Nigeria produces a very high quality, light, sweet crude oil but with a large percentage of associated gas derived from a high gas-to-oil ratio. Official proved gas reserves, both associated and nonassociated, are 120 tcf. Proved and probable reserves are estimated as high as 300 tcf. The internal market for gas has only begun to develop since the 1980s, and as a result approximately 77% of associated gas production is flared. Domestic gas consumption is currently approximately 700 MMcfd and is projected to have a medium term potential of 1.450 bcfd. The article discusses resource development, gas markets, gas flaring, gas use programs, the Bonny LNG scheme, the gas reserve base, LNG project status, competition, and energy opportunities

  17. Impact of reserves information on formulating government policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekelund, M.W.; Anderson, B.; Khan, M.; Hudson, B.

    1997-01-01

    Policies regarding the development and production of Alberta's mineral resources such as oil, gas, and bitumen, are developed by the Alberta Ministry of Energy. The Ministry is divided into the Energy and Utilities Board (EUB) and the Department of Energy. The EUB deals with conservation, production measurement and reporting, environmental issues and some public utility issues. The Department of Energy deals with determining the appropriate fiscal and tenure regimes, market effectiveness issues and collection of Alberta's share of production. Reserve estimates are used for policy development and implementation purposes. The impact of some doubts regarding the reliability of reserves information and its impact on provincial policy recommendations were highlighted. Examples were drawn from bitumen reserves determination in the Athabasca Oil Sands area, enhanced oil recovery programs within the conventional oil sector, and royalty formulation within the conventional oil and gas sectors

  18. Viscoelastic model of tungsten 'fuzz' growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasheninnikov, S I

    2011-01-01

    A viscoelastic model of fuzz growth is presented. The model describes the main features of tungsten fuzz observed in experiments. It gives estimates of fuzz growth rate and temperature range close to experimental ones.

  19. Bayesian estimation of (covariance components for growth traits in tabapuã cattle Estimação bayesiana de componentes de (covariância de características ponderais na raça tabapuã

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lúcia Galvão de Albuquerque

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Among the features of interest to the animal breeding, that can be measured repeatedly throughout an individual's life, are among other, growth characteristics, which are characteristic features called longitudinal or repeated. It was used 8193 Tabapuã breed records of animal weight raised in 25 farms distributed in the states of Bahia, Alagoas, Sergipe, Minas Gerais and São Paulo and born between the years of 1975 and 2001. Aiming to estimate the (co variance and genetic parameters for weights at 120 (W120, 365 (W365, 450 (W450 e 550 (W550 days old. Variance components were estimated in a Bayesian context considering a multi-trait animal model with fixed effects for contemporary groups and ages of the mother and the animal. The random effects were considered direct genetic and maternal and maternal permanent environment and error. The effects mothers were included in the model only for W120 and W365. The direct heritability were 0.31, 0.38, 0.33 and 0.29 for W120, W365, W450 and W550, respectively. The fractions of genetic and maternal permanent environment effects on phenotypic variances were 0.06 and 0.01, 0.03 and 0.01 for W120 and W365.Entre as características de interesse para o melhoramento genético animal que podem ser mensuradas repetidamente ao longo da vida do indivíduo, encontram-se, entre outras, as características de crescimento, que são denominadas características repetidas ou longitudinais. Foram utilizados 8.193 registros de peso de animais da raça Tabapuã criados em 25 fazendas distribuídas nos estados da Bahia, Alagoas, Sergipe, Minas Gerais e São Paulo, nascidos entre os anos de 1975 e 2001, com o objetivo de estimar componentes de (covariância e parâmetros genéticos para pesos aos 120 (P120, 365 (P365, 450 (P450 e 550 (P550 dias de idade. Os componentes de variância foram mensurados em um contexto bayesiano, considerando um modelo animal multi-característica com efeitos fixos de grupos de contemporâneos e

  20. Anthropogenic disturbances jeopardize biodiversity conservation within tropical rainforest reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Ramos, Miguel; Ortiz-Rodríguez, Iván A; Piñero, Daniel; Dirzo, Rodolfo; Sarukhán, José

    2016-05-10

    Anthropogenic disturbances affecting tropical forest reserves have been documented, but their ecological long-term cumulative effects are poorly understood. Habitat fragmentation and defaunation are two major anthropogenic threats to the integrity of tropical reserves. Based on a long-term (four decades) study, we document how these disturbances synergistically disrupt ecological processes and imperil biodiversity conservation and ecosystem functioning at Los Tuxtlas, the northernmost tropical rainforest reserve in the Americas. Deforestation around this reserve has reduced the reserve to a medium-sized fragment (640 ha), leading to an increased frequency of canopy-gap formation. In addition, hunting and habitat loss have caused the decline or local extinction of medium and large herbivores. Combining empirical, experimental, and modeling approaches, we support the hypothesis that such disturbances produced a demographic explosion of the long-lived (≈120 y old, maximum height of 7 m) understory palm Astrocaryum mexicanum, whose population has increased from 1,243-4,058 adult individuals per hectare in only 39 y (annual growth rate of ca 3%). Faster gap formation increased understory light availability, enhancing seed production and the growth of immature palms, whereas release from mammalian herbivory and trampling increased survival of seedlings and juveniles. In turn, the palm's demographic explosion was followed by a reduction of tree species diversity, changing forest composition, altering the relative contribution of trees to forest biomass, and disrupting litterfall dynamics. We highlight how indirect anthropogenic disturbances (e.g., palm proliferation) on otherwise protected areas threaten tropical conservation, a phenomenon that is currently eroding the planet's richest repositories of biodiversity.

  1. Intrauterine growth restriction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardita Donoso Bernales

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available It is estimated that the true prevalence of intrauterine growth restriction is 3-10% of all pregnancies, making this fetal condition one of the most frequent obstetric problems, together with premature labor and premature rupture of membranes. The article stresses the importance of early diagnosis because of the associated risks.

  2. Neural electrical activity and neural network growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafarov, F M

    2018-05-01

    The development of central and peripheral neural system depends in part on the emergence of the correct functional connectivity in its input and output pathways. Now it is generally accepted that molecular factors guide neurons to establish a primary scaffold that undergoes activity-dependent refinement for building a fully functional circuit. However, a number of experimental results obtained recently shows that the neuronal electrical activity plays an important role in the establishing of initial interneuronal connections. Nevertheless, these processes are rather difficult to study experimentally, due to the absence of theoretical description and quantitative parameters for estimation of the neuronal activity influence on growth in neural networks. In this work we propose a general framework for a theoretical description of the activity-dependent neural network growth. The theoretical description incorporates a closed-loop growth model in which the neural activity can affect neurite outgrowth, which in turn can affect neural activity. We carried out the detailed quantitative analysis of spatiotemporal activity patterns and studied the relationship between individual cells and the network as a whole to explore the relationship between developing connectivity and activity patterns. The model, developed in this work will allow us to develop new experimental techniques for studying and quantifying the influence of the neuronal activity on growth processes in neural networks and may lead to a novel techniques for constructing large-scale neural networks by self-organization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. growth stimulant

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of timing and duration of supplementation of LIVFIT VET ® (growth stimulant) as substitute for fish meal on the growth performance, haematology and clinical enzymes concentration of growing pigs.

  4. 7 CFR 1221.114 - Operating reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING SERVICE (MARKETING... INFORMATION ORDER Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Order Sorghum Promotion, Research, and Information Board § 1221.114 Operating reserve. The Board may establish an operating monetary reserve and may...

  5. 24 CFR 891.855 - Replacement reserves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Replacement reserves. 891.855... § 891.855 Replacement reserves. (a) The mixed-finance owner shall establish and maintain a replacement... the funds will be used to pay for capital replacement costs for the Section 202 or 811 supportive...

  6. 40 CFR 406.43 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 406.43 Section 406.43 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS GRAIN MILLS POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Bulgur Wheat Flour Milling Subcategory § 406.43 [Reserved] ...

  7. 40 CFR 406.23 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 406.23 Section 406.23 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS GRAIN MILLS POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Corn Dry Milling Subcategory § 406.23 [Reserved] ...

  8. 40 CFR 406.13 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 28 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 406.13 Section 406.13 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) EFFLUENT GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS GRAIN MILLS POINT SOURCE CATEGORY Corn Wet Milling Subcategory § 406.13 [Reserved] ...

  9. 41 CFR 101-39.205 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... FEDERAL PROPERTY MANAGEMENT REGULATIONS AVIATION, TRANSPORTATION, AND MOTOR VEHICLES 39-INTERAGENCY FLEET MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 39.2-GSA Interagency Fleet Management System Services § 101-39.205 [Reserved] ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 101-39.205...

  10. 22 CFR 99.3 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false [Reserved] 99.3 Section 99.3 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE LEGAL AND RELATED SERVICES REPORTING ON CONVENTION AND NON-CONVENTION ADOPTIONS OF EMIGRATING CHILDREN § 99.3 [Reserved] ...

  11. 14 CFR 99.12 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 99.12 Section 99.12 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) AIR TRAFFIC AND GENERAL OPERATING RULES SECURITY CONTROL OF AIR TRAFFIC General § 99.12 [Reserved] ...

  12. 26 CFR 1.46-10 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true [Reserved] 1.46-10 Section 1.46-10 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY INCOME TAX INCOME TAXES Rules for Computing Credit for Investment in Certain Depreciable Property § 1.46-10 [Reserved] ...

  13. 26 CFR 48.4161(b) - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 16 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true [Reserved] 48.4161(b) Section 48.4161(b) Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS EXCISE TAXES MANUFACTURERS AND RETAILERS EXCISE TAXES Sporting Goods § 48.4161(b) [Reserved] ...

  14. 26 CFR 48.4161(a) - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 26 Internal Revenue 16 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 true [Reserved] 48.4161(a) Section 48.4161(a) Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS EXCISE TAXES MANUFACTURERS AND RETAILERS EXCISE TAXES Sporting Goods § 48.4161(a) [Reserved] ...

  15. 20 CFR 410.394 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false [Reserved] 410.394 Section 410.394 Employees' Benefits SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION FEDERAL COAL MINE HEALTH AND SAFETY ACT OF 1969, TITLE IV-BLACK LUNG BENEFITS (1969- ) Relationship and Dependency § 410.394 [Reserved] ...

  16. 7 CFR 1900.57 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1900.57 Section 1900.57 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL HOUSING SERVICE, RURAL BUSINESS-COOPERATIVE... GENERAL Adverse Decisions and Administrative Appeals § 1900.57 [Reserved] ...

  17. 39 CFR 111.5 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 111.5 Section 111.5 Postal Service UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE POST OFFICE SERVICES [DOMESTIC MAIL] GENERAL INFORMATION ON POSTAL SERVICE § 111.5 [Reserved] ...

  18. 29 CFR 579.4 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 579.4 Section 579.4 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) WAGE AND HOUR DIVISION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR REGULATIONS CHILD LABOR VIOLATIONS-CIVIL MONEY PENALTIES § 579.4 [Reserved] ...

  19. 19 CFR 210.22 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false [Reserved] 210.22 Section 210.22 Customs Duties UNITED STATES INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION INVESTIGATIONS OF UNFAIR PRACTICES IN IMPORT TRADE ADJUDICATION AND ENFORCEMENT Motions § 210.22 [Reserved] ...

  20. 12 CFR 614.4710 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 614.4710 Section 614.4710 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM LOAN POLICIES AND OPERATIONS Banks for Cooperatives and Agricultural Credit Banks Financing International Trade § 614.4710 [Reserved] ...

  1. 12 CFR 996.1 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 996.1 Section 996.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE BOARD NON-BANK SYSTEM ENTITIES AUTHORITY FOR BANK ASSISTANCE OF THE RESOLUTION FUNDING CORPORATION § 996.1 [Reserved] ...

  2. 29 CFR 4.106 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true [Reserved] 4.106 Section 4.106 Labor Office of the Secretary of Labor LABOR STANDARDS FOR FEDERAL SERVICE CONTRACTS Application of the McNamara-O'Hara Service Contract Act Introductory § 4.106 [Reserved] Agencies Whose Contracts May Be Covered ...

  3. 46 CFR 308.301 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 308.301 Section 308.301 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE Second Seamen's War Risk Insurance § 308.301 [Reserved] ...

  4. 46 CFR 308.305 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 308.305 Section 308.305 Shipping MARITIME ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION EMERGENCY OPERATIONS WAR RISK INSURANCE Second Seamen's War Risk Insurance § 308.305 [Reserved] ...

  5. 7 CFR 1709.2 Policy. - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1709.2 Policy. Section 1709.2 Policy. Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES General Requirements § 1709.2 Policy. [Reserved] ...

  6. 7 CFR 1709.202 Policy. - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1709.202 Policy. Section 1709.202 Policy... AGRICULTURE ASSISTANCE TO HIGH ENERGY COST COMMUNITIES Bulk Fuel Revolving Fund Grant Program § 1709.202 Policy. [Reserved] ...

  7. 15 CFR 2003.3 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 2003.3 Section 2003.3 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to Foreign Trade Agreements OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES TRADE REPRESENTATIVE REGULATIONS OF TRADE POLICY STAFF COMMITTEE § 2003.3 [Reserved] ...

  8. Price, technology, and ore reserves, ch. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McAllister, A.L.

    1976-01-01

    Factors determining ore reserves in view of future uses are investigated: existing mining technologies, new techniques, price-technology relationship, effects of the use of different energy sources, exploration techniques, and price change are discussed. The effect of price and technology on reserves of specific commodities is dealth with. A section is also devoted to uranium

  9. 21 CFR 211.170 - Reserve samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 4 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Reserve samples. 211.170 Section 211.170 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES (CONTINUED) DRUGS: GENERAL... of deterioration unless visual examination would affect the integrity of the reserve sample. Any...

  10. 48 CFR 4.501 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 4.501 Section 4.501 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE MATTERS Electronic Commerce in Contracting 4.501 [Reserved] ...

  11. 5 CFR 9901.513 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 9901.513 Section 9901.513 Administrative Personnel DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND LABOR RELATIONS SYSTEMS (DEPARTMENT... (NSPS) Staffing and Employment External Recruitment and Internal Placement § 9901.513 [Reserved] ...

  12. 31 CFR 281.2 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 281.2 Section 281.2 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) FISCAL SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SERVICE FOREIGN EXCHANGE OPERATIONS § 281.2 [Reserved] ...

  13. 7 CFR 1776.4 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 1776.4 Section 1776.4 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (CONTINUED) HOUSEHOLD WATER WELL SYSTEM GRANT PROGRAM General § 1776.4 [Reserved] ...

  14. 49 CFR 17.4 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false [Reserved] 17.4 Section 17.4 Transportation Office of the Secretary of Transportation INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVIEW OF DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROGRAMS AND ACTIVITIES § 17.4 [Reserved] ...

  15. 7 CFR 1962.5 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 14 2010-01-01 2009-01-01 true [Reserved] 1962.5 Section 1962.5 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL HOUSING SERVICE, RURAL BUSINESS-COOPERATIVE... REGULATIONS (CONTINUED) PERSONAL PROPERTY Servicing and Liquidation of Chattel Security § 1962.5 [Reserved] ...

  16. 18 CFR 284.125 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false [Reserved] 284.125 Section 284.125 Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT... Certain Transportation by Intrastate Pipelines § 284.125 [Reserved] ...

  17. 40 CFR 73.32 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 73.32 Section 73.32 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) SULFUR DIOXIDE ALLOWANCE SYSTEM Allowance Tracking System § 73.32 [Reserved] ...

  18. 40 CFR 73.51 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 73.51 Section 73.51 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) SULFUR DIOXIDE ALLOWANCE SYSTEM Allowance Transfers § 73.51 [Reserved] ...

  19. 40 CFR 73.11 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 73.11 Section 73.11 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) SULFUR DIOXIDE ALLOWANCE SYSTEM Allowance Allocations § 73.11 [Reserved] ...

  20. 7 CFR 801.10 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false [Reserved] 801.10 Section 801.10 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) GRAIN INSPECTION, PACKERS AND STOCKYARD... FOR GRAIN INSPECTION EQUIPMENT § 801.10 [Reserved] ...

  1. 40 CFR 26.1124 - [Reserved

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false [Reserved] 26.1124 Section 26.1124 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY GENERAL PROTECTION OF HUMAN SUBJECTS Basic Ethical...-nursing Adults § 26.1124 [Reserved] ...

  2. The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitley, Sally; Shinn, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Increases in NASA mission costs are well-noted but not well-understood, and there is little evidence that they are decreasing in frequency or amount over time. The need to control spending has led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns, and many program control efforts are being implemented to attempt to prevent or mitigate the problem (NPR 7120). However, cost overruns have not abated, and while some direct causes of increased spending may be obvious (requirements creep, launch delays, directed changes, etc.), the underlying impetus to spend past the original budget may be more subtle. Gaining better insight into the causes of cost overruns will help NASA and its contracting organizations to avoid .them. This paper hypothesizes that one cause of NASA mission cost overruns is that the availability of reserves gives project team members an incentive to make decisions and behave in ways that increase costs. We theorize that the presence of reserves is a contributing factor to cost overruns because it causes organizations to use their funds less efficiently or to control spending less effectively. We draw a comparison to the insurance industry concept of moral hazard, the phenomenon that the presence of insurance causes insureds to have more frequent and higher insurance losses, and we attempt to apply actuarial techniques to quantifY the increase in the expected cost of a mission due to the availability of reserves. We create a theoretical model of reserve spending motivation by defining a variable ReserveSpending as a function of total reserves. This function has a positive slope; for every dollar of reserves available, there is a positive probability of spending it. Finally, the function should be concave down; the probability of spending each incremental dollar of reserves decreases progressively. We test the model against available NASA CADRe data by examining missions with reserve dollars initially available and testing whether

  3. Disclosure of oil and gas reserve information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emsile, B.H.

    1998-01-01

    The current regulations regarding disclosure of oil and gas reserve information in Canada are described. These regulations have been in place since the early 1980s and have generally worked well, but there are some issues that need to be updated. The Alberta Securities Commission Oil and Gas Securities Task Force was established to review the regulations and the major issues that need to be addressed. The issues under consideration are: (1) reserve definitions and price assumptions, (2) use of deterministic or probabilistic reserve calculation methods, (3) use of audits in reserve reporting, (4) abandonment costs, (5) calculation of barrels of oil equivalents, and (6) the calculation of various performance indicators such as finding and development costs and reserve replacement ratios

  4. Oil Reserves and Production in the Gulf with Special Reference to Qatar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibrahim, Ismail.

    1998-01-01

    Oil and natural gas potential of the Gulf Arab Countries is substantial. The proven oil reserves of these countries constitute 55% of total world proven oil reserves. The Gulf Arab Countries possess 576 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves, as compared to total world proven oil reserves of around 1047. Natural gas resources are also plentiful in the Gulf Arab Countries. Proven natural gas reserves were estimated at around 26 trillion cubic metres, at the beginning of 1997. This figure represents around 17% of total world proven natural gas reserves of around 153 trillion cubic metres

  5. Oil reserves viewed from a geological and a financial perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, Y.; Pozzi, C.

    2004-01-01

    Exactly how high are the current levels of oil reserves owned by private companies in the oil sector? To what extent are the figures that they provide in their annual balance sheets reliable? Finally, what is the relationship between their declared reserves and the value of their share prices in the financial markets? In order to answer these questions, we need to consider the various links existing between on the one hand the various problems related to the technical estimation of deposits and on the other hand the economic thinking behind their use. On 22 June 2004, a discussion focusing on these themes was organised by the Centre de Geopolitique de l'Energie et des Matieres Premieres (Centre for Energy and Raw Material Geopolitics) of Dauphine University) as part of the conference: 'Oil reserves viewed from a geological and a financial perspective'. The result of the debates was clear: various methodological justifications, several accounting standards and a lack of serious monitoring have led to oil companies developing the habit of increasing the crude reserves previously declared each year, to the extent that this practice has become a virtual expectation within the financial markets. The case of Shell, a company an whose professionalism has never been called into question until last year, has clearly revealed the dangers related to this situation. The major losses in value suffered by the Anglo-Dutch company due to the brutal reaction following the unexpected downward revision of its estimated deposits provide clear proof of a latent problem. It is to be hoped that this experience will have a paradigmatic effect, bringing about a rethink of current standards with regard to the estimation of reserves, one which is more necessary today than at any time in the past. Here, we are presenting two articles providing an overview of the discussion underway and introducing two separate points of view. The first article (by Yves Mathieu of the IFP) introduces the

  6. Brain reserve against physical disability progression over 5 years in multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumowski, James F; Rocca, Maria A; Leavitt, Victoria M; Meani, Alessandro; Mesaros, Sarlota; Drulovic, Jelena; Preziosa, Paolo; Habeck, Christian G; Filippi, Massimo

    2016-05-24

    The brain reserve hypothesis links larger maximal lifetime brain growth (MLBG, estimated with intracranial volume [ICV]) with lower risk for cognitive decline/dementia. We examined whether larger MLBG is also linked to less physical disability progression over 5 years in a prospective sample of treatment-naive patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). Physical disability was measured with the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) at baseline and 5-year follow-up in 52 treatment-naive Serbian patients with MS. MRI measured disease burden (cerebral atrophy, T2 lesion volume) and MLBG: a genetically determined, premorbid (established during adolescence, stable thereafter) patient characteristic estimated with ICV (adjusted for sex). Logistic regression tested whether MLBG (smaller vs larger) predicts disability progression (stable vs worsened) independently of disease burden. Disability progression was observed in 29 (55.8%) patients. Larger MLBG predicted lower risk for progression (odds ratio 0.13, 95% confidence interval 0.02-0.78), independently of disease burden. We also calculated absolute change in EDSS scores, and observed that patients with smaller MLBG showed worse EDSS change (0.91 ± 0.71) than patients with larger MLBG (0.42 ± 0.87). Larger MLBG was linked to lower risk for disability progression in patients with MS over 5 years, which is the first extension of the brain reserve hypothesis to physical disability. MLBG (ICV) represents a clinically available metric that may help gauge risk for future disability in patients with MS, which may advance the science and practice of early intervention. Potential avenues for future research are discussed. © 2016 American Academy of Neurology.

  7. DNIEPROVSKO-ORELSKIY NATURAL RESERVE AS THE REFUGIUM FOR HERPETOFAUNA IN PRIDNEPROVSK REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Missura A. N.

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Species diversity of herpetofauna of Dnieprovsko-Orel'skiy natural reserve was estimated based on long-term monitoring data; relative species’ abundance was determined as well. The retrospective estimation of amphibious populations in biogeocoenoses was performed for the period before and after creation of nature reserve. We also estimated turnover ratio of species between nature reserve biogeocoenoses and adjacent biotopes with high degree of recreation and urbanization. The data were incorporated into management plan for populations’ abundance stabilization and increasing.

  8. Development of world coal reserves, their registration and their utilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bachmann, H

    1979-10-01

    This paper examines statistics on world coal production and world coal reserves with figures from 1860 to 1974 provided in tables and graphs. Eighty percent of the total world coal reserves (92% of world brown coal reserves) lie in the USA and USSR. The recent increase in total coal reserve estimates is due to exploration in western USA and in the USSR east of the Urals. Depth and thickness of the world's coal seams are shown in graphs and variations in coal quality are discussed. Problems associated with the anticipated substantial increase in coal production up to the year 2000 are considered. Encouraging higher coal production is the successful development of highly mechanized underground mining techniques and highly productive heavy surface mining equipment which allows excavation at increased depths. Surface mining is expected to make up 50% of total world mining operations in the near future. More complete deposit exploitation also contributes to higher coal production. Low international ship freight rates would facilitate future world coal trade. Obstacles are seen as: high, long term investments due to the fact that coal reserves lie far from populated and industrialized areas; opening new mines; transportation costs and infrastructure development.

  9. Stem secondary growth of tundra shrubs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Campioli, Matteo; Leblans, Niki; Michelsen, Anders

    2012-01-01

    Our knowledge of stem secondary growth of arctic shrubs (a key component of tundra net primary production, NPP) is very limited. Here, we investigated the impact of the physical elements of the environment on shrub secondary growth by comparing annual growth rates of model species from similar...... growth (stem apical growth, stem length, and apical growth of stem plus leaves), in some cases even with opposite responses. Thus caution should be taken when estimating the impact of the environment on shrub growth from apical growth only. Integration of our data set with the (very limited) previously...

  10. The Growth-Inequality Association:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnskov, Christian

    2008-01-01

    This note suggests that the association between income inequality and economic growth rates might arguably depend on the political ideology of incumbent governments. Estimates indicate that under leftwing governments, inequality is negatively associated with growth while the association is positive...... under rightwing governments. This may provide a qualification to recent studies of inequality....

  11. Status of Shanxi Province's power and coal reserves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, D.C.; Shang, J.Y.

    1995-01-01

    An introduction to Shanxi's coal reserve, production, transportation utilization, electric power generation and transmission capacities is presented with the intention of providing outsiders a clear understanding of Shanxi's coal and power industries. Quantitative sketches of Shanxi's role in China's energy resource production and power generation are included. The province of Shanxi invites investors to visit Shanxi to gain first-hand knowledge. The authors have also taken the liberty of providing the high points of Shanxi's indigenous sceneries and local customs. They believe that in the future, Shanxi's coal based power development will be one of the principal drivers of China's economic growth

  12. Monetary Policy Signaling from the Administration to the Federal Reserve.

    OpenAIRE

    Havrilesky, Thomas

    1988-01-01

    This paper develops an index of monetary policy signals from the Administration to the Federal Reserve based on articles which appeared in the Wall Street Journal in which Administration off icials express a desire for easier or tighter monetary policy. In reg ressions, the index has a significant effect on the money supply. In reaction functions, the index responds to variables which measure the state of the economy. Money growth does not respond to the same stat e-of-the-economy measures bu...

  13. Assessment of Aspergillus niger biofilm growth kinetics in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jane

    2011-10-12

    Oct 12, 2011 ... other hand, A. niger biofilm growth followed a logistic model having higher maximal specific growth rate than ...... Growth estimation of Aspergillus oryzae cultured on ... Initial intracellular proteome profile of Aspergillus niger.

  14. Active power reserves evaluation in large scale PVPPs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crăciun, Bogdan-Ionut; Kerekes, Tamas; Sera, Dezso

    2013-01-01

    The present trend on investing in renewable ways of producing electricity in the detriment of conventional fossil fuel-based plants will lead to a certain point where these plants have to provide ancillary services and contribute to overall grid stability. Photovoltaic (PV) power has the fastest...... growth among all renewable energies and managed to reach high penetration levels creating instabilities which at the moment are corrected by the conventional generation. This paradigm will change in the future scenarios where most of the power is supplied by large scale renewable plants and parts...... of the ancillary services have to be shared by the renewable plants. The main focus of the proposed paper is to technically and economically analyze the possibility of having active power reserves in large scale PV power plants (PVPPs) without any auxiliary storage equipment. The provided reserves should...

  15. Electricity regulation and economic growth

    OpenAIRE

    Costa, M. Teresa (Maria Teresa), 1951-; Garcia-Quevedo, Jose; Trujillo-Baute, Elisa

    2018-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to analyse the effect of electricity regulation on economic growth. Although the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth has been extensively analysed in the empirical literature, this framework has not been used to estimate the effect of electricity regulation on economic growth. Understanding this effect is essential for the assessment of regulatory policy. Specifically, we assess the effects of two major areas of regulation, rene...

  16. Political Instability and Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Alberto Alesina; Sule Ozler; Nouriel Roubini; Phillip Swagel

    1992-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between political instability and per capita GDP growth in a sample of 113 countries for the period 1950-1982. We define ?political instability? as the propensity of a government collapse, and we estimate a model in which political instability and economic growth are jointly determined. The main result of this paper is that in countries and time periods with a high propensity of government collapse, growth is significantly lower than otherwise. This ef...

  17. The Economics of NASA Mission Cost Reserves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitley, Sally; Shinn, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Increases in NASA mission costs have led to analysis of the causes and magnitude of historical mission overruns as well as mitigation and prevention attempts. This paper hypothesizes that one cause is that the availability of reserves may reduce incentives to control costs. We draw a comparison to the insurance concept of moral hazard, and we use actuarial techniques to better understand the increase in mission costs due to the availability of reserves. NASA's CADRe database provided the data against which we tested our hypothesis and discovered that there is correlation between the amount of available reserves and project overruns, particularly for mission hardware cost increases. We address the question of how to prevent reserves from increasing mission spending without increasing cost risk to projects.

  18. Transforming the Reserve Component: Four Essays

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Binnendijk, Hans; Baranick, Michael J; Bell, Raymond E., Jr; Cordero, Gina; Duncan, Stephen M; Holshek, Christopher; Wentz, Larry

    2005-01-01

    .... The first essay calls for a fundamental restructuring of the Reserve Component in light of the largest mobilization since the Korean War, which has been fraught with problems in terms of combat...

  19. Phytosociological classification of the Nylsvley nature reserve

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Coetzee, BJ

    1977-12-01

    Full Text Available The vegetation of the Nylsvley Nature Reserve in the Transvaal Mixed Bushveld is classified hierarchically by the Braun-Blanquet method of vegetation survey. The vegetation is seasonal grassland and deciduous savanna with four floristically distinct...

  20. 24 CFR 266.110 - Reserve requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY RISK-SHARING PROGRAM FOR INSURED AFFORDABLE MULTIFAMILY PROJECT LOANS Housing Finance Agency Requirements § 266.110 Reserve requirements. (a) HFAs with top-tier designation or overall...