WorldWideScience

Sample records for research selling forecasting

  1. The Determinants of Sell-side Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy and Media Exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Amadu Sorogho

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines contributing factors to the differential forecasting abilities of sell-side analysts and the relation between the sentiments of these analysts and their media exposure. In particular, I investigate whether the level of optimism expressed in sell-side analysts’ reports of fifteen constituents of primarily the S&P 500 Oil and Gas Industry1, enhance the media appearance of these analysts. Using a number of variables estimated from the I/B/E/S Detail history database, 15,455 analyst reports collected from Thompson Reuters Investext and analyst media appearances obtained from Dow Jones Factiva from 1999 to 2014, I run a multiple linear regression to determine the effect of independent variables on dependent variables.  I find that an analyst’s forecast accuracy (as measured by the errors inherent in his forecasts is negatively associated with the analyst’s level of media exposure, experience, brokerage size, the number of times he revises his forecasts in a year and the number of companies followed by the analyst, and positively associated with the analyst’s level of optimism expressed in his reports, forecast horizon and the size of the company he follows.

  2. The Determinants of Sell-side Analysts' Forecast Accuracy and Media Exposure

    OpenAIRE

    Sorogho, Samira Amadu

    2017-01-01

    This study examines contributing factors to the differential forecasting abilities of sell-side analysts and the relation between the sentiments of these analysts and their media exposure. In particular, I investigate whether the level of optimism expressed in sell-side analysts’ reports of fifteen constituents of primarily the S&P 500 Oil and Gas Industry1, enhance the media appearance of these analysts. Using a number of variables estimated from the I/B/E/S Detail history database, 15,455 a...

  3. The ability of analysts' recommendations to predict optimistic and pessimistic forecasts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Biglari

    Full Text Available Previous researches show that buy (growth companies conduct income increasing earnings management in order to meet forecasts and generate positive forecast Errors (FEs. This behavior however, is not inherent in sell (non-growth companies. Using the aforementioned background, this research hypothesizes that since sell companies are pressured to avoid income increasing earnings management, they are capable, and in fact more inclined, to pursue income decreasing Forecast Management (FM with the purpose of generating positive FEs. Using a sample of 6553 firm-years of companies that are listed in the NYSE between the years 2005-2010, the study determines that sell companies conduct income decreasing FM to generate positive FEs. However, the frequency of positive FEs of sell companies does not exceed that of buy companies. Using the efficiency perspective, the study suggests that even though buy and sell companies have immense motivation in avoiding negative FEs, they exploit different but efficient strategies, respectively, in order to meet forecasts. Furthermore, the findings illuminated the complexities behind informative and opportunistic forecasts that falls under the efficiency versus opportunistic theories in literature.

  4. The Ability of Analysts' Recommendations to Predict Optimistic and Pessimistic Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biglari, Vahid; Alfan, Ervina Binti; Ahmad, Rubi Binti; Hajian, Najmeh

    2013-01-01

    Previous researches show that buy (growth) companies conduct income increasing earnings management in order to meet forecasts and generate positive forecast Errors (FEs). This behavior however, is not inherent in sell (non-growth) companies. Using the aforementioned background, this research hypothesizes that since sell companies are pressured to avoid income increasing earnings management, they are capable, and in fact more inclined, to pursue income decreasing Forecast Management (FM) with the purpose of generating positive FEs. Using a sample of 6553 firm-years of companies that are listed in the NYSE between the years 2005–2010, the study determines that sell companies conduct income decreasing FM to generate positive FEs. However, the frequency of positive FEs of sell companies does not exceed that of buy companies. Using the efficiency perspective, the study suggests that even though buy and sell companies have immense motivation in avoiding negative FEs, they exploit different but efficient strategies, respectively, in order to meet forecasts. Furthermore, the findings illuminated the complexities behind informative and opportunistic forecasts that falls under the efficiency versus opportunistic theories in literature. PMID:24146741

  5. Learning in Advance Selling with Heterogeneous Consumers

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana Loginova; X. Henry Wang; Chenhang Zeng

    2012-01-01

    The advance selling strategy is implemented when a firm offers consumers the opportunity to order its product in advance of the regular selling season. Advance selling reduces uncertainty for both the firm and the buyer and enables the firm to update its forecast of future demand. The distinctive feature of the present study of advance selling is that we divide consumers into two groups, experienced and inexperienced. Experienced consumers know their valuations of the product in advance, whil...

  6. Advance Selling in the Presence of Experienced Consumers

    OpenAIRE

    Oksana Loginova; X. Hnery Wang; Chenhang Zeng

    2011-01-01

    The advance selling strategy is implemented when a firm offers consumers the opportunity to order its product in advance of the regular selling season. Advance selling reduces uncertainty for both the firm and the buyer and enables the firm to update its forecast of future demand. The distinctive feature of the present theoretical study of advance selling is that we divide consumers into two groups, experienced and inexperienced. Experienced consumers know their valuations of the product in a...

  7. Hybrid machine learning technique for forecasting Dhaka stock market timing decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banik, Shipra; Khodadad Khan, A F M; Anwer, Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting stock market has been a difficult job for applied researchers owing to nature of facts which is very noisy and time varying. However, this hypothesis has been featured by several empirical experiential studies and a number of researchers have efficiently applied machine learning techniques to forecast stock market. This paper studied stock prediction for the use of investors. It is always true that investors typically obtain loss because of uncertain investment purposes and unsighted assets. This paper proposes a rough set model, a neural network model, and a hybrid neural network and rough set model to find optimal buy and sell of a share on Dhaka stock exchange. Investigational findings demonstrate that our proposed hybrid model has higher precision than the single rough set model and the neural network model. We believe this paper findings will help stock investors to decide about optimal buy and/or sell time on Dhaka stock exchange.

  8. A heuristic forecasting model for stock decision

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, D.; Jiang, Q.; Li, X.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a heuristic forecasting model based on neural networks for stock decision-making. Some heuristic strategies are presented for enhancing the learning capability of neural networks and obtaining better trading performance. The China Shanghai Composite Index is used as case study. The forecasting model can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the result of neural network prediction. Results are compared with a benchmark buy-and-hold strategy. ...

  9. Valuing hydrological forecasts for a pumped storage assisted hydro facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Guangzhi; Davison, Matt

    2009-07-01

    SummaryThis paper estimates the value of a perfectly accurate short-term hydrological forecast to the operator of a hydro electricity generating facility which can sell its power at time varying but predictable prices. The expected value of a less accurate forecast will be smaller. We assume a simple random model for water inflows and that the costs of operating the facility, including water charges, will be the same whether or not its operator has inflow forecasts. Thus, the improvement in value from better hydrological prediction results from the increased ability of the forecast using facility to sell its power at high prices. The value of the forecast is therefore the difference between the sales of a facility operated over some time horizon with a perfect forecast, and the sales of a similar facility operated over the same time horizon with similar water inflows which, though governed by the same random model, cannot be forecast. This paper shows that the value of the forecast is an increasing function of the inflow process variance and quantifies how much the value of this perfect forecast increases with the variance of the water inflow process. Because the lifetime of hydroelectric facilities is long, the small increase observed here can lead to an increase in the profitability of hydropower investments.

  10. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  11. Personal selling constructs and measures: Emic versus etic approaches to cross-national research

    OpenAIRE

    Herché, Joel; Swenson, Michael; Verbeke, Willem

    1996-01-01

    textabstractEvaluates transportability of personal selling measures across cultural boundaries. Concept of measurement development; Emic and etic approaches to developing measures for cross-cultural applications; Cross-national dimensionality, reliability and construct validity of adaptive selling (ADAPTS) and customer-oriented selling (SOCO).

  12. The Short Selling Regulation in the EU: Assessing the Authorization Granted for ESMA to Prohibit Short Selling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matias Huhtilainen

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the renewed short selling regulation (Regulation (EU No 236/2012 in the European Union. The focus is on the provisions that deal with prohibiting short selling in exceptional market circumstances. The Regulation further enforces certain obligations to report and disclose short positions. It is concluded that banning short selling is not an effective tool to contain extreme price volatility. The difference-in-differences regression and repeated measures GLM were used to test whether short selling bans were successful in containing volatility of those Spanish and Italian stocks that were subject to two back-to-back prohibitions during the years 2011-2013. The results are consistent with the majority of previous research, suggesting that the effectiveness of short sale constraints in reducing volatility is limited at best. Furthermore, there are evidence of counterproductive effects: constraints on short selling may actually increase volatility as well as deteriorate liquidity. However, based on theory and previous studies, reporting and disclosure requirements shall be favored provided they improve market efficiency as well as supervisory work of regulatory bodies.This paper discusses the renewed short selling regulation (Regulation (EU No 236/2012 in the European Union. The focus is on the provisions that deal with prohibiting short selling in exceptional market circumstances. The Regulation further enforces certain obligations to report and disclose short positions. It is concluded that banning short selling is not an effective tool to contain extreme price volatility. The difference-in-differences regression and repeated measures GLM were used to test whether short selling bans were successful in containing volatility of those Spanish and Italian stocks that were subject to two back-to-back prohibitions during the years 2011-2013. The results are consistent with the majority of previous research, suggesting that the

  13. Real Time Business Analytics for Buying or Selling Transaction on Commodity Warehouse Receipt System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatna, Taufik; Teniwut, Wellem A.; Hairiyah, Nina; Marimin

    2017-10-01

    The requirement for smooth information such as buying and selling is essential for commodity warehouse receipt system such as dried seaweed and their stakeholders to transact for an operational transaction. Transactions of buying or selling a commodity warehouse receipt system are a risky process due to the fluctuations in dynamic commodity prices. An integrated system to determine the condition of the real time was needed to make a decision-making transaction by the owner or prospective buyer. The primary motivation of this study is to propose computational methods to trace market tendency for either buying or selling processes. The empirical results reveal that feature selection gain ratio and k-NN outperforms other forecasting models, implying that the proposed approach is a promising alternative to the stock market tendency of warehouse receipt document exploration with accurate level rate is 95.03%.

  14. Space Weather Forecasting and Supporting Research in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pevtsov, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    In the United State, scientific research in space weather is funded by several Government Agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Aeronautics and Space Agency (NASA). For civilian and commercial purposes, space weather forecast is done by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Observational data for modeling come from the network of groundbased observatories funded via various sources, as well as from the instruments on spacecraft. Numerical models used in forecast are developed in framework of individual research projects. The article provides a brief review of current state of space weather-related research and forecasting in the USA.

  15. SPIN-selling

    CERN Document Server

    Rackham, Neil

    1995-01-01

    True or false? In selling high-value products or services: "closing" increases your chance of success; it is essential to describe the benefits of your product or service to the customer; objection handling is an important skill; and open questions are more effective than closed questions. All false, says Neil Rackham. He and his team studied more than 35,000 sales calls made by 10,000 sales people in 23 countries over 12 years. Their findings revealed that many of the methods developed for selling low-value goods just don't work for major sales. Rackham went on to introduce his SPIN-selling method, where SPIN describes the whole selling process - Situation questions, Problem questions, Implication questions, Need-payoff questions. SPIN-selling provides you with a set of simple and practical techniques which have been tried in many of today's leading companies with dramatic improvements to their sales performance.

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: CNMI

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Commonwealth of the Northern...

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Samoa

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the islands of Samoa at...

  18. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Guam

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the island of Guam at...

  19. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 3.5-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian island of Oahu at...

  20. Space Weather Forecasting and Research at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronne, M.

    2015-12-01

    The Space Weather Research Center (SWRC), within the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), provides experimental research forecasts and analysis for NASA's robotic mission operators. Space weather conditions are monitored to provide advance warning and forecasts based on observations and modeling using the integrated Space Weather Analysis Network (iSWA). Space weather forecasters come from a variety of backgrounds, ranging from modelers to astrophysicists to undergraduate students. This presentation will discuss space weather operations and research from an undergraduate perspective. The Space Weather Research, Education, and Development Initiative (SW REDI) is the starting point for many undergraduate opportunities in space weather forecasting and research. Space weather analyst interns play an active role year-round as entry-level space weather analysts. Students develop the technical and professional skills to forecast space weather through a summer internship that includes a two week long space weather boot camp, mentorship, poster session, and research opportunities. My unique development of research projects includes studying high speed stream events as well as a study of 20 historic, high-impact solar energetic particle events. This unique opportunity to combine daily real-time analysis with related research prepares students for future careers in Heliophysics.

  1. Direct selling particularities

    OpenAIRE

    Greifová, Daniela

    2009-01-01

    Bachelor thesis is focused on the parcularities of direct selling, self regulation of this industry, multi-level marketing which is the most used sales method in the field of direct selling. The part of the thesis is dedicated to the issue of customer psychology that is very important for achieving success in direct selling. Main goals are to provide readers with the general view of direct selling and analysis of growing possibilities of the industry in the future.

  2. Personal selling constructs and measures: Emic versus etic approaches to cross-national research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Herché (Joel); M.J. Swenson (Michael); W.J.M.I. Verbeke (Willem)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractEvaluates transportability of personal selling measures across cultural boundaries. Concept of measurement development; Emic and etic approaches to developing measures for cross-cultural applications; Cross-national dimensionality, reliability and construct validity of adaptive selling

  3. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Maui-Oahu

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Hawaiian islands of Oahu,...

  4. Research on energy supply, demand and economy forecasting in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shiba, Tsuyoshi; Kamezaki, Hiroshi; Yuyama, Tomonori; Suzuki, Atsushi

    1999-10-01

    This project aims to do research on forecasts of energy demand structure and electricity generation cost in each power plant in Japan in the 21st century, considering constructing successful FBR scenario. During the process of doing research on forecasts of energy demand structure in Japan, documents published from organizations in inside and outside of Japan were collected. These documents include prospects of economic growth rate, forecasts of amount for energy supply and demand, the maximum amount of introducing new energy resources, CO2 regulation, and evaluation of energy best mixture. Organizations in Japan such as Economic Council and Japan Energy Economic Research Institute have provided long-term forecasts until the early 21st century. Meanwhile, organizations overseas have provided forecasts of economic structure, and demand and supply for energy in OECD and East Asia including Japan. In connection with forecasts of electricity generation cost in each power plant, views on the ultimate reserves and cost of resources are reviewed in this report. According to some views on oil reserves, making assumptions based on reserves/production ratio, the maximum length of the time that oil reserves will last is 150 years. In addition, this report provides summaries of cost and potential role of various resources, including solar energy and wind energy; and views on waste, safety, energy security-related externality cost, and the price of transferring CO2 emission right. (author)

  5. Transit forecasting accuracy : ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates, final research report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    In 1992, Pickrell published a seminal piece examining the accuracy of ridership forecasts and capital cost estimates for fixed-guideway transit systems in the US. His research created heated discussions in the transit industry regarding the ability o...

  6. Cross Selling Management

    OpenAIRE

    Nufer, Gerd; Kelm, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Erfolgreiches Cross Selling Management bietet die Möglichkeit, die Profitabilität von Neu- oder Bestandskunden zu steigern und kann zur Verbesserung der Kundenzufriedenheit, Kundenbindung und Verlängerung des Kundenlebenszyklus beitragen. Um erfolgreiches Cross Selling Management zu betreiben, sind ein systematisches Vorgehen und die Bereitstellung von Unternehmensressourcen notwendig. Umfangreiche vorbereitende Maßnahmen stellen sicher, dass Cross Selling nicht dem Zufall überlassen wird. De...

  7. E-selling: A new avenue of research for service design and online engagement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Parvinen, P.; Oinas-Kukkonen, H.; Kaptein, M.C.

    2015-01-01

    E-selling is an activity that is distinct from e-commerce, e-marketing and e-retailing. E-selling is conceptualized to be computer–human dialog characterized by the digital spatio-temporal locus, the psychology of online persuasion, and complex perceptions of value. This definition warrants that

  8. E-selling : A new avenue of research for service design and online engagement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Parvinen, Petri; Oinas-Kukkonen, Harri; Kaptein, M.C.

    2015-01-01

    E-selling is an activity that is distinct from e-commerce, e-marketing and e-retailing. E-selling is conceptualized to be computer–human dialog characterized by the digital spatio-temporal locus, the psychology of online persuasion, and complex perceptions of value. This definition warrants that

  9. Adaptive Selling and Organizational Characteristics: Suggestions For Future Research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Vink (Jaap); W.J.M.I. Verbeke (Willem)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper the relationship between adaptive selling and organizational behavior is analysed. Specifically, it is discovered that adaptive behavior is a multifaceted concept which is not linearly related to the organizational characteristics in the way it was operationalized in a

  10. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Regional Atmospheric Model: Main Hawaiian Islands

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale numerical weather prediction model 7-day hourly forecast for the region surrounding the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI)...

  11. Research on service strategy of electricity selling company under the reform of electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Zhuhan; Meng, Shiyu; Dou, Jinyue; Zeng, Ming; Sun, Chenjun

    2017-10-01

    The opening of the sale side of electricity market is an important goal of the new round of power system reform in China, and it is necessary to speed up the establishment and development of the electricity selling companies to achieve this goal. First of all, this paper defines the key problems, which are needed to be solved in the establishment of the sale side market, such as demand side response, optimization of users' power consumption mode, profit mode of electricity selling companies and fair competition in the market. On this basis, this paper analyzes the business of electricity selling company, from the aspects of the transition of business ideas, improving the energy efficiency level, providing integrated energy solutions and innovating business management mode; and then, the service strategies of electricity selling companies are put forward.

  12. Facebook marketing for a direct selling company

    OpenAIRE

    Egeberg, Chenette

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of the thesis was to provide recommendations for how the studied company could improve their Facebook marketing activities. The company was the Danish subsidiary of an multinational direct selling company of health and beauty products. The following research questions were devised: 1) What are the constraints and challenges for LR Denmark’s facebook marketing as a subsidiary of a Multinational Corporation and as a Direct Selling Company? 2) How can LR Denmark improve the...

  13. Hydrologic Forecasting in the 21st Century: Challenges and Directions of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo, P.; Schaake, J.

    2009-04-01

    Traditionally, the role of the Hydrology program of the National Weather Service has been centered around forecasting floods, in order to minimize loss of lives and damage to property as a result of floods as well as water levels for navigable rivers, and water supply in some areas of the country. A number of factors, including shifting population patterns, widespread drought and concerns about climate change have made it imperative to widen the focus to cover forecasting flows ranging from drought to floods and anything in between. Because of these concerns, it is imperative to develop models that rely more on the physical characteristics of the watershed for parameterization and less on historical observations. Furthermore, it is also critical to consider explicitly the sources of uncertainty in the forecasting process, including parameter values, model structure, forcings (both observations and forecasts), initial conditions, and streamflow observations. A consequence of more widespread occurrence of low flows as a result either of the already evident earlier snowmelt in the Western United States, or of the predicted changes in precipitation patterns, is the issue of water quality: lower flows will have higher concentrations of certain pollutants. This paper describes the current projects and future directions of research for hydrologic forecasting in the United States. Ongoing projects on quantitative precipitation and temperature estimates and forecasts, uncertainty modeling by the use of ensembles, data assimilation, verification, distributed conceptual modeling will be reviewed. Broad goals of the research directions are: 1) reliable modeling of the different sources of uncertainty. 2) a more expeditious and cost-effective approach by reducing the effort required in model calibration; 3) improvements in forecast lead-time and accuracy; 4) an approach for rapid adjustment of model parameters to account for changes in the watershed, both rapid as the result

  14. NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

    2017-12-01

    Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

  15. Optimal strategy for selling on group-buying website

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuan Jiang

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to help business marketers with offline channels to make decisions on whether to sell through Group-buying (GB websites and how to set online price with the coordination of maximum deal size on GB websites. Design/methodology/approach: Considering the deal structure of GB websites especially for the service fee and minimum deal size limit required by GB websites, advertising effect of selling on GB websites, and interaction between online and offline markets, an analytical model is built to derive optimal online price and maximum deal size for sellers selling through GB website. This paper aims to answer four research questions: (1 How to make a decision on maximum deal size with coordination of the deal price? (2 Will selling on GB websites always be better than staying with offline channel only? (3 What kind of products is more appropriate to sell on GB website? (4How could GB website operator induce sellers to offer deep discount in GB deals? Findings and Originality/value: This paper obtains optimal strategies for sellers selling on GB website and finds that: Even if a seller has sufficient capacity, he/she may still set a maximum deal size on the GB deal to take advantage of Advertisement with Limited Availability (ALA effect; Selling through GB website may not bring a higher profit than selling only through offline channel when a GB site only has a small consumer base and/or if there is a big overlap between the online and offline markets; Low margin products are more suitable for being sold online with ALA strategies (LP-ALA or HP-ALA than high margin ones; A GB site operator could set a small minimum deal size to induce deep discounts from the sellers selling through GB deals. Research limitations/implications: The present study assumed that the demand function is determinate and linear. It will be interesting to study how stochastic demand and a more general demand function affect the optimal

  16. Optimal Advance Selling Strategy under Price Commitment

    OpenAIRE

    Chenhang Zeng

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers a two-period model with experienced consumers and inexperienced consumers. The retailer determines both advance selling price and regular selling price at the beginning of the first period. I show that advance selling weekly dominates no advance selling, and the optimal advance selling price may be at a discount, at a premium or at the regular selling price. To help the retailer choose the optimal pricing strategy, conditions for each possible advance selling strategy to ...

  17. To sell or not to sell: cigarette sales in alcohol-licenced premises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Suzan; Ludbrooke, Mark; Williams, Kelly; Walsberger, Scott C; Egger, Sam

    2017-11-27

    To obtain insight into tobacco retailing by alcohol-licenced premises, in order to understand the financial importance of tobacco sales for such retailers. Data were collected by a telephone survey of 1042 clubs, hotels and packaged liquor outlets in New South Wales, Australia. The response rate was 86.1%. Qualitative and quantitative data were obtained. Logistic and linear regression were used to determine factors associated with the probability of selling and stopping selling and the importance of cigarette sales. More than a third (36.4%) of premises contacted did not sell cigarettes. 147 (an estimated 18.1% of those who had ever sold) had stopped selling. There were significant differences in the probability of selling, in the reported importance of cigarette sales and in the probability of stopping selling, between different outlet types and other outlet characteristics (number of gaming machines, proximity of nearest alternative tobacco retailer and remoteness). Outlets where alcohol can be consumed were more likely to rate cigarette sales as 'not important' than 'important'. Despite claims by tobacco companies that tobacco sales are important for many Australian retailers, tobacco sales appear to be of limited importance for alcohol-licenced premises. This means that opposition to stopping tobacco sales where alcohol is consumed and/or sold may be less than expected. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  18. Selling digital music

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tvede, Mich

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the market for digital music. We claim that the combination of the MP3 format and peer-to-peer networks has made music non-excludable and this feature is essential for the understanding of the economics of the music market. We study optimal business models for selling non-exc......, the music industry should concentrate on alternative ways of creating profit such as selling access to listeners, concerts, merchandise, ringtones etc.......This paper considers the market for digital music. We claim that the combination of the MP3 format and peer-to-peer networks has made music non-excludable and this feature is essential for the understanding of the economics of the music market. We study optimal business models for selling non...

  19. The effects of forecast errors on the merchandising of wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roon, Serafin von

    2012-01-01

    A permanent balance between consumption and generation is essential for a stable supply of electricity. In order to ensure this balance, all relevant load data have to be announced for the following day. Consequently, a day-ahead forecast of the wind power generation is required, which also forms the basis for the sale of the wind power at the wholesale market. The main subject of the study is the short-term power supply, which compensates errors in wind power forecasting for balancing the wind power forecast errors at short notice. These forecast errors effects the revenues and the expenses by selling and buying power in the day-ahead, intraday and balance energy market. These price effects resulting from the forecast errors are derived from an empirical analysis. In a scenario for the year 2020 the potential of conventional power plants to supply power at short notice is evaluated from a technical and economic point of view by a time series analysis and a unit commitment simulation.

  20. Recessions and the participation of youth in the selling and use of illicit drugs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkes, Jeremy

    2011-09-01

    There has been limited research on how recessions (or more generally, the strength of the economy) affect drug use and the related outcome of drug selling. This is especially important, given the current economic crisis. This paper aims to use a conceptual framework, previous research, and new research to predict how the current economic crisis may be affecting youth drug selling and drug use. A conceptual framework to understand how a recession could affect youth drug selling and drug use is presented, along with a review of the literature on empirical investigations on how the strength of the economy affects these behaviours among teenagers. In addition, new analyses for young adults are presented. The conceptual framework postulates that a recession would have direct positive effects on the prevalence of youth drug selling but ambiguous direct effects on youth drug use. The conceptual framework also postulates that drug selling and drug use are inter-connected at the individual level and the aggregate level. Thus, any effect of a recession on one would likely affect the other in the same direction. The limited empirical evidence indicates that both drug selling and drug use among youth are higher when the economy is weaker. The current economic crisis will likely increase both youth drug selling and drug use relative to what they would have otherwise been. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. Short-Term Power Plant GHG Emissions Forecasting Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidovic, D.

    2016-01-01

    In 2010, the share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power generation in the total emissions at the global level was about 25 percent. From January 1st, 2013 Croatian facilities have been involved in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The share of the ETS sector in total GHG emissions in Croatia in 2012 was about 30 percent, where power plants and heat generation facilities contributed to almost 50 percent. Since 2013 power plants are obliged to purchase all emission allowances. The paper describes the short-term climate forecasting model of greenhouse gas emissions from power plants while covering the daily load diagram of the system. Forecasting is done on an hourly domain typically for one day, it is possible and more days ahead. Forecasting GHG emissions in this way would enable power plant operators to purchase additional or sell surplus allowances on the market at the time. Example that describes the operation of the above mentioned forecasting model is given at the end of the paper.(author).

  2. BUYING AND SELLING A SMALL BUSINESS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Part One takes the form of a manual of the processes and techniques of buying and selling a small business . This material is presented in a...finalizing the transaction and planning for operation under new ownership and management . Part Two reports the nature of the research conducted during the

  3. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  4. IMPLEMENTATION OF PERSONAL SELLING PT BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA (PERSERO, TBK IN PROMOTING PROGRAM SUPER UNTUNG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novita Eva Natalya

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Appearing many types of bank proves that business of banking is growing up rapidly and and competing to compile society’s found. Therefore, each bank does the best promotion in order to get the attention and trust from society. PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero, Tbk is using personal selling in promoting Program Super Untung in 2014, this research focuses on monitoring the process of implementation personal selling in Program Super Untung done by PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero,Tbk.This research aims to monitor the implementation of personal selling done by PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero,Tbk to promote Program Super Untung by using personal selling process method from Churchill,. Method applied in this research is descriptive qualitative with design of study case and technic of collecting data done by interviewing and compiling documents from the company related with the research. The result of this research discussed about implementation of personal selling done by PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero,Tbk in 2014. The steps of personal selling are prospecting for customer, opening the relationship, qualifiying the prospect, presenting the sales message, closing the sales, until servicing the account. This research concludes that personal selling has view steps, every steps have relationship and will influence the other steps. Every steps have substantial points that can influence the success of personal selling, i.e. good communication between seller and candidate of customer.  Muncul banyak jenis bank membuktikan bahwa bisnis perbankan berkembang pesat dan dan bersaing untuk menyusun masyarakat yang ditemukan. Oleh karena itu, setiap bank melakukan promosi terbaik agar mendapat perhatian dan kepercayaan dari masyarakat. PT Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero, Tbk menggunakan penjualan pribadi dalam mempromosikan Program Super Untung pada tahun 2014, penelitian ini berfokus pada pemantauan proses implementasi personal selling di Program Super Untung

  5. Evaluation and Application of the Weather Research and Forecast Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Passner, Jeffrey E

    2007-01-01

    ... by the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) to determine how accurate and robust the model is under a variety of meteorological conditions, with an emphasis on fine resolution, short-range forecasts in complex terrain...

  6. Supplementary income. Direct selling in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roesner, Sven

    2014-01-01

    This document treats, first, of the evolution of the German support mechanisms to renewable energy sources. Then, it presents the legal framework of direct electricity selling (goal, evolution, facilities in concern and eligibility criteria). Next, the operation of direct selling since August 2014 in Germany is presented (producers eligibility, over- and under-production, reference values, income, tariffs). Finally, the perspectives and conditions of direct selling success are summarized in the conclusion

  7. Evaluating winds and vertical wind shear from Weather Research and Forecasting model forecasts using seven planetary boundary layer schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draxl, Caroline; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Pena Diaz, Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    with different PBL parameterizations at one coastal site over western Denmark. The evaluation focuses on determining which PBL parameterization performs best for wind energy forecasting, and presenting a validation methodology that takes into account wind speed at different heights. Winds speeds at heights...... regarding wind energy at these levels partly depends on the formulation and implementation of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations in these models. This study evaluates wind speeds and vertical wind shears simulated by theWeather Research and Forecasting model using seven sets of simulations...

  8. Research on combination forecast of port cargo throughput based on time series and causality analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Zhang

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a combined model composed of grey-forecast model and Logistic-growth-curve model to improve the accuracy of forecast model of cargo throughput for the port. The authors also use the existing data of a current port to verify the validity of the combined model.Design/methodology/approach: A literature review is undertaken to find the appropriate forecast model of cargo throughput for the port. Through researching the related forecast model, the authors put together the individual models which are significant to study further. Finally, the authors combine two individual models (grey-forecast model and Logistic-growth-curve model into one combined model to forecast the port cargo throughput, and use the model to a physical port in China to testify the validity of the model.Findings: Test by the perceptional data of cargo throughput in the physical port, the results show that the combined model can obtain relatively higher forecast accuracy when it is not easy to find more information. Furthermore, the forecast made by the combined model are more accurate than any of the individual ones.Research limitations/implications: The study provided a new combined forecast model of cargo throughput with a relatively less information to improve the accuracy rate of the forecast. The limitation of the model is that it requires the cargo throughput of the port have an S-shaped change trend.Practical implications: This model is not limited by external conditions such as geographical, cultural. This model predicted the port cargo throughput of one real port in China in 2015, which provided some instructive guidance for the port development.Originality/value: This is the one of the study to improve the accuracy rate of the cargo throughput forecast with little information.

  9. Application research for 4D technology in flood forecasting and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ziwei; Liu, Yutong; Cao, Hongjie

    1998-08-01

    In order to monitor the region which disaster flood happened frequently in China, satisfy the great need of province governments for high accuracy monitoring and evaluated data for disaster and improve the efficiency for repelling disaster, under the Ninth Five-year National Key Technologies Programme, the method was researched for flood forecasting and evaluation using satellite and aerial remoted sensed image and land monitor data. The effective and practicable flood forecasting and evaluation system was established and DongTing Lake was selected as the test site. Modern Digital photogrammetry, remote sensing and GIS technology was used in this system, the disastrous flood could be forecasted and loss can be evaluated base on '4D' (DEM -- Digital Elevation Model, DOQ -- Digital OrthophotoQuads, DRG -- Digital Raster Graph, DTI -- Digital Thematic Information) disaster background database. The technology of gathering and establishing method for '4D' disaster environment background database, application technology for flood forecasting and evaluation based on '4D' background data and experimental results for DongTing Lake test site were introduced in detail in this paper.

  10. A typology of drug selling among young adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughn, Michael G; Salas-Wright, Christopher P; DeLisi, Matt; Shook, Jeffrey J; Terzis, Lauren

    2015-02-01

    Although studies have found that young adults who sell drugs are more likely to be involved in risky behaviors than those who do not sell drugs, there has been relatively little research that has explored heterogeneity among young adults who sell drugs. Using a pooled sample of 18 to 25 year olds from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (2006-2010) who report past-year drug selling (N = 5,373), this study employs latent profile analysis to specify latent groups and assess the correlates of group membership. Findings indicate substantial differences among young adults who sell drugs. In particular, the analysis found four groups of drug sellers: normative (49.6%), club drug users (23.6%), polysubstance users (16.0%), and criminal offenders (10.8%). Club drug users were characterized by high levels of ecstasy and hallucinogen use, polysubstance users were more likely to be depressed and anxious, White and female than the other groups. Criminal offenders were overwhelmingly male and more likely to be comprised of African-Americans and Hispanics. RESULTS indicate that drug selling in early adulthood varies substantially. Contrary to media and popular notions most drug sellers are not involved in crime and polysubstance using drug sellers are in clear need of mental health services. Further, most drug sellers in this age range are White. Findings suggest that policy efforts that operate under the assumption of homogeneity of drug selling may be misguided.

  11. Kontribusi Penggunaan Personal Selling Dalam Kegiatan Komunikasi Pemasaran Pada Era Pemasaran Masa Kini

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suherman Kusniadji

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In today’s marketing era, consumers seem to have known about marketed products and no longer need explanation from a salesperson. The interaction between company and target consumers can be marketed through new media such as email, Facebook, WA, Instagram, and other forms. Such situations need to be in-depth researched in terms of whether personal selling contribution is still needed in marketing communication activities. Considering the uniqueness and personal selling advantages turns out that personal selling is an important partner that can not be replaced by other forms of marketing communications even if there is exposure to new media to promote products. The specialty of personal selling lies in its ability to interact directly to improvise the sales process through person to person communication. Dalam era pemasaran masa kini nampaknya konsumen dianggap sudah mengetahui tentang produk yang dipasarkan dan tidak memerlukan lagi penjelasan dari seorang wiraniaga. Interaksi perusahaan dengan pembeli sasaran dapat dilakukan melalui media baru seperti email, facebook, WA, instagram dan bentuk lainnya. Situasi demikianlah yang memerlukan kajian mendalam dalam kaitannya bagaimana peran personal selling dalam kegiatan komunikasi pemasaran di era digital? Memperhatikan keunikan dan kelebihan personal selling ternyata personal selling merupakan mitra penting yang tidak dapat tergantikan oleh bentuk komunikasi pemasaran lainnya sekalipun ada terpaan media baru untuk mempromosikan produk. Keistimewaan personal selling terletak pada kemampuannya untuk berinteraksi secara langsung untuk mengimprovisasi proses penjualan melalui komunikasi person to person.

  12. Research on classified real-time flood forecasting framework based on K-means cluster and rough set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wei; Peng, Yong

    2015-01-01

    This research presents a new classified real-time flood forecasting framework. In this framework, historical floods are classified by a K-means cluster according to the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, the time variance of precipitation intensity and other hydrological factors. Based on the classified results, a rough set is used to extract the identification rules for real-time flood forecasting. Then, the parameters of different categories within the conceptual hydrological model are calibrated using a genetic algorithm. In real-time forecasting, the corresponding category of parameters is selected for flood forecasting according to the obtained flood information. This research tests the new classified framework on Guanyinge Reservoir and compares the framework with the traditional flood forecasting method. It finds that the performance of the new classified framework is significantly better in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, the framework can be considered in a catchment with fewer historical floods.

  13. Reconsidering Kantian arguments against organ selling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpinar-Şencan, Zümrüt

    2016-03-01

    Referring to Kant's arguments addressing the moral relationship between our bodies and ourselves is quite common in contemporary debate about organ selling, although he does not provide us with any specific arguments related to this debate. It is widely argued that the most promising way to show the moral impermissibility of organ selling is to mount an argument on Kantian grounds. This paper asks whether it is possible to argue coherently against organ selling in a Kantian framework. It will be shown that by mounting the argument on Kantian grounds no compelling argument can be given against sale of organs, either because the arguments apply to donation of organs, too, or the arguments are not convincing for other independent reasons. In the first section, it will be argued that donation and selling are not distinguishable in a Kantian framework, since the concern about commodification of the body and its parts shall be raised by both actions. In the second section, some contemporary accounts inspired by Kant will be presented and discussed separately. It will be argued that the reasons for promoting organ donation while arguing against selling clash with each other in an unconvincing way.

  14. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  15. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  16. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  17. The Advanced Course in Professional Selling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loe, Terry; Inks, Scott

    2014-01-01

    More universities are incorporating sales content into their curriculums, and although the introductory courses in professional sales have much common ground and guidance from numerous professional selling texts, instructors teaching the advanced selling course lack the guidance provided by common academic tools and materials. The resulting…

  18. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  19. Research on Risks and Forecasting Countermeasures of Hainan Banana Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Yan-qun; Zeng, Xiao-hong; Fang, Jia

    2011-01-01

    Based on the overviews of the current conditions of Hainan banana industry, the research makes an analysis of the risks faced by Hainan banana industry. They are respectively marketing risks, natural risks, information risks and production risks. In order to promote a sustainable and rapid development of Hainan banana industry, Countermeasures are proposed in the research. The first is to strengthen the leading organization of forecasting mechanisms on banana industry. The second is to establ...

  20. Selling the green dream

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, E.

    2005-01-01

    The article discusses the marketing and sales of energy generated from renewable energy sources. To purchase environmental energy in the USA, the consumer need do no more than tick a box on a sheet of paper. But, it is not just households that opt for green energy: businesses are also willing customers. A factor in the success in selling green energy to big business is that the retail price of wind power can be held constant over periods of several years, whereas fossil fuel prices can fluctuate wildly. Details of sources and sales of the top ten companies selling green energy are given

  1. Airport mobile marketing as a channel to promote cross-selling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lázaro Florido-Benítez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the airport mobile marketing and what elements have had a positive or negative influence in cross-selling via an airport app.  Design/methodology: For this analysis, a survey was conducted to users that use the Schiphol Amsterdam Airport app. A total of 103 questionnaires were analyzed using structural equation modeling.  Findings: This study found that security/control factor supplied by the mobile marketing tool to passengers at the airport, it has been demonstrated that it favours an increase in cross-selling. in addition, if an airport is perceived to have a good brand image, it will have a positive effect in cross-selling.  Originality/value: This paper is the first research that examines the impact of mobile marketing in airports. Smelling multiple products and services to the same client before, during, and post consumption  is a marketing technique that intends to (1 satisfy a client’s need and (2 increase a company’s profit by using cross-selling and other complementary services. Airline companies are experts in carrying out this activity, and airports have found that mobile applications are the perfect tool to increase their commercial profits. Offering complementary products and services is a very lucrative business, and a mobile device or smartphone are -- and will become -- the ideal medium to meet users’ demands as well as to improve the passenger experience.  Keywords: mobile marketing, cross-selling, information, security-control, image-perception, satisfaction, WOM

  2. TECHNICAL AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS OF SHORT SELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu BORES

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at providing insight into some of the implication of short selling for markets, investors as well as regulators. Findings show that capital flows are adversely affected by strict regulation and bans of short sales, while market liquidity, and bid-ask spread can be improved by allowing short selling. Additionally portfolios that incorporate short selling strategies can have lower volatility in returns. The informational content of short sales can provide important feedback for informed investors and lead to better price discovery.

  3. Successful selling of packed fresh fruit and vegetable

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radmila Presová

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the marketability of packaged fruit and vegetables, as a new trend of satisfying consumer needs, in connection with selling-culture of stall selling and self-stores sales. It emphasize fact that food have to be wrapped into the quality, health packages, under the conditions of the Act. 477/2001 Coll.Specific data for the analytical part of this paper was provided by Hortim International Ltd. This company has operate on the Czech market since 1995. Analysis of the economic results confirmes the legitimacy of the sale of packaged fresh fruits and vegetables, but there will be neccesary longer lasting promotion. This fact also confirmed the research of consumer demand, that was made by authors. Determinant for the success sales are these factors: consumer confidence that the packaged products of fruit and vegetables are high quality.

  4. Show and Sell: Teaching Sales through Hands-On Selling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rippé, Cindy B.

    2015-01-01

    There is a shortage of qualified salespeople, which creates a challenge for educators to prepare more students for a sales career. One of the most common teaching techniques used in preparing students is role playing, which mirrors real-world selling. However, role plays are not necessarily authentic because the players and conditions are not a…

  5. PENERAPAN PERSONAL SELLING DALAM MEMASARKAN PRODUK PEMBIAYAAN MURABAHAH PADA PT. BANK PEMBIAYAAN RAKYAT SYARIAH MITRA HARMONI KOTA MALANG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fani Firmansyah, Dian Nailiyah

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, many sharia financial institutes stand, either banks general or banks people of islamic finance. PT BPRS Mitra Harmoni Malang City as a new sharia financial institute is demanded to be able to compete to other financial institute, so that the marketting strategy  is needed fully. Personal selling is one of marketting method of producttion in order to be able to be pervaded by market. PT BPRS Mitra Harmoni Malang City markets payment product of murabahah by using the personal selling, can stand even more develope. This research it conducted to know how the application of personal selling in marketing murabahah  payment product in PT BPRS Mitra Harmoni Malang City. The kind of this research is method qualitative approach descriptive, the researcher describes how processes or steps personal selling conducted PT BPRS Mitra Harmoni Malang City, the technique of data collecttion uses the observation, interview and documentation. Method data analysis that researcher use is method data analysis descriptive. The research result shows that proses or step personal selling which is held in PT BPRS Mitra Harmoni Malang City is Prospecting Approach, Preapproach, Approach, Presentation, Handling Objection, Closing and follow up. Handling Objection which is held PT BPRS Mitra Harmoni Malang City is sales person continue closing sale without asked reservation prospective customers and do not dig the hidden reservation then use the reservation as an opportunity to provide more information and change the mind be a reason to buy.

  6. Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

    KAUST Repository

    Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason P.; Kucera, Paul A.

    2015-01-01

    The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite

  7. The effects of forecast errors on the merchandising of wind power; Auswirkungen von Prognosefehlern auf die Vermarktung von Windstrom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roon, Serafin von

    2012-02-28

    A permanent balance between consumption and generation is essential for a stable supply of electricity. In order to ensure this balance, all relevant load data have to be announced for the following day. Consequently, a day-ahead forecast of the wind power generation is required, which also forms the basis for the sale of the wind power at the wholesale market. The main subject of the study is the short-term power supply, which compensates errors in wind power forecasting for balancing the wind power forecast errors at short notice. These forecast errors effects the revenues and the expenses by selling and buying power in the day-ahead, intraday and balance energy market. These price effects resulting from the forecast errors are derived from an empirical analysis. In a scenario for the year 2020 the potential of conventional power plants to supply power at short notice is evaluated from a technical and economic point of view by a time series analysis and a unit commitment simulation.

  8. How to Sell SaaS: A Model for Main Factors of Marketing and Selling Software-as-a-Service

    OpenAIRE

    Tyrväinen, Pasi; Selin, Joona

    2011-01-01

    Software-as-a-Service providers have been growing fast while the contemporary research literature has neglected analysis of their business-critical marketing and sales processes. In this paper we collect the key factors characterizing how to market and sell SaaS to business customers into an eight dimensional model. We also use an explorative multi-case study to observe six SaaS providers and validate the model. The interviewed providers emphasized use of the Internet for ma...

  9. The Analysis of Effectiveness of Various Channels for Selling Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakubiv Valentyna М.

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to conduct an analysis of the agricultural products market in Ivano-Frankivsk region by assessing the main channels for selling products and the price level. By summarizing and analyzing the research of domestic scientists, the importance of conducting a qualitative and detailed market research in the system of intermediary activity is substantiated. Due to the results of the analysis of channels for selling agricultural products, it is revealed that intermediary structures have the largest market share. It is found that there is a tendency to increase the share of sold agricultural products to intermediaries both in Ukraine in general and in Ivano-Frankivsk region in particular. At the same time, direct sales on the market, and, therefore, direct contact with the end user, are decreasing year by year. Prospects for further research in this direction are searching for ways to reduce control over the agricultural market by intermediary structures.

  10. 29 CFR 541.504 - Drivers who sell.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... DELIMITING THE EXEMPTIONS FOR EXECUTIVE, ADMINISTRATIVE, PROFESSIONAL, COMPUTER AND OUTSIDE SALES EMPLOYEES Outside Sales Employees § 541.504 Drivers who sell. (a) Drivers who deliver products and also sell such products may qualify as exempt outside sales employees only if the employee has a primary duty of making...

  11. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  12. Intel Xeon Phi accelerated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Goddard microphysics scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mielikainen, J.; Huang, B.; Huang, A. H.-L.

    2014-12-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is a numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. The WRF development is a done in collaboration around the globe. Furthermore, the WRF is used by academic atmospheric scientists, weather forecasters at the operational centers and so on. The WRF contains several physics components. The most time consuming one is the microphysics. One microphysics scheme is the Goddard cloud microphysics scheme. It is a sophisticated cloud microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The Goddard microphysics scheme is very suitable for massively parallel computation as there are no interactions among horizontal grid points. Compared to the earlier microphysics schemes, the Goddard scheme incorporates a large number of improvements. Thus, we have optimized the Goddard scheme code. In this paper, we present our results of optimizing the Goddard microphysics scheme on Intel Many Integrated Core Architecture (MIC) hardware. The Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor is the first product based on Intel MIC architecture, and it consists of up to 61 cores connected by a high performance on-die bidirectional interconnect. The Intel MIC is capable of executing a full operating system and entire programs rather than just kernels as the GPU does. The MIC coprocessor supports all important Intel development tools. Thus, the development environment is one familiar to a vast number of CPU developers. Although, getting a maximum performance out of MICs will require using some novel optimization techniques. Those optimization techniques are discussed in this paper. The results show that the optimizations improved performance of Goddard microphysics scheme on Xeon Phi 7120P by a factor of 4.7×. In addition, the optimizations reduced the Goddard microphysics scheme's share of the total WRF processing time from 20.0 to 7.5%. Furthermore, the same optimizations

  13. Wind power forecasting: IEA Wind Task 36 & future research issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Giebel, Gregor; Cline, J.; Frank, Helmut Paul

    2016-01-01

    the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Forecasting for Wind Energy tries to organise international collaboration, among national meteorological centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD...

  14. Short-Selling, Leverage and Systemic Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Pais, Amelia; Stork, Philip A.

    2013-01-01

    During the Global Financial Crisis, regulators imposed short-selling bans to protect financial institutions. The rationale behind the bans was that “bear raids”, driven by short-sellers, would increase the individual and systemic risk of financial institutions, especially for institutions with high leverage. This study uses Extreme Value Theory to estimate the effect of short-selling on financial institutions’ individual and systemic risks in France, Italy and Spain; it also analyses the rela...

  15. Serious Delinquency and Gang Participation: Combining and Specializing in Drug Selling, Theft and Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Rachel A; Rowe, Hillary L; Pardini, Dustin; Loeber, Rolf; White, Helene Raskin; Farrington, David P

    2014-06-01

    Using Pittsburgh Youth Study data, we examined the extent to which over 600 gang members and non-gang involved young men specialized in drug selling, serious theft, or serious violence or engaged simultaneously in these serious delinquent behaviors, throughout the 1990s. We found that the increase in delinquency associated with gang membership was concentrated in two combinations: serious violence and drug selling; serious violence, drug selling, and serious theft. Several covariates were similarly associated with multi-type serious delinquency and gang membership (age, historical time, Black race, and residential mobility), suggesting that these behaviors may share common developmental, familial, and contextual risks. We encourage future research to further examine the association of gang membership with engagement in particular configurations of serious delinquency.

  16. Serious Delinquency and Gang Participation: Combining and Specializing in Drug Selling, Theft and Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Rachel A.; Rowe, Hillary L.; Pardini, Dustin; Loeber, Rolf; White, Helene Raskin; Farrington, David P.

    2014-01-01

    Using Pittsburgh Youth Study data, we examined the extent to which over 600 gang members and non-gang involved young men specialized in drug selling, serious theft, or serious violence or engaged simultaneously in these serious delinquent behaviors, throughout the 1990s. We found that the increase in delinquency associated with gang membership was concentrated in two combinations: serious violence and drug selling; serious violence, drug selling, and serious theft. Several covariates were similarly associated with multi-type serious delinquency and gang membership (age, historical time, Black race, and residential mobility), suggesting that these behaviors may share common developmental, familial, and contextual risks. We encourage future research to further examine the association of gang membership with engagement in particular configurations of serious delinquency. PMID:24954999

  17. Weather Research and Forecasting Model Wind Sensitivity Study at Edwards Air Force Base, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Leela R.; Bauman, William H., III; Hoeth, Brian

    2009-01-01

    This abstract describes work that will be done by the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) in assessing the success of different model configurations in predicting "wind cycling" cases at Edwards Air Force Base, CA (EAFB), in which the wind speeds and directions oscillate among towers near the EAFB runway. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model allows users to choose among two dynamical cores - the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). There are also data assimilation analysis packages available for the initialization of the WRF model - the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) and the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) Data Analysis System (ADAS). Having a series of initialization options and WRF cores, as well as many options within each core, creates challenges for local forecasters, such as determining which configuration options are best to address specific forecast concerns. The goal of this project is to assess the different configurations available and determine which configuration will best predict surface wind speed and direction at EAFB.

  18. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

  19. An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Based Nowcasting System: Software Description

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    14. ABSTRACT A Web service /Web interface software package has been engineered to address the need for an automated means to run the Weather Research...An Automated Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)- Based Nowcasting System: Software Description by Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and...Based Nowcasting System: Software Description Stephen F. Kirby, Brian P. Reen, and Robert E. Dumais Jr. Computational and Information Sciences

  20. Growing an emerging energy workforce: forecasting labour demand and gaining access to emerging energy skills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomsen, V.

    2006-01-01

    This paper discusses the needs of emerging energies sector in terms of growing an emerging energy workforce, forecasting labour demands and gaining access to emerging energy skills. It will require industrial renewal and innovation and not just selling our resources. It will also require educating ourselves to utilise our own finished products. Conservation is a key element in a sustainable energy future. finally, a market for renewable energy has been established in Canada

  1. Selling digital music

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tvede, Mich

    This paper considers the market for digital music. We claim that the combination of the MP3 format and peer-to-peer networks has made music non-excludable and this feature is essential for the understanding of the economics of the music market. We study optimal business models for selling non...

  2. Cross-selling lending and underwriting : scope economies and incentives

    OpenAIRE

    Laux, Christian; Walz, Uwe

    2009-01-01

    We highlight the implications of combining underwriting services and lending for the choice of underwriters and for competition in the underwriting business. We show that cross-selling can increase underwriters' incentives, and we explain three phenomena: first, that cross-selling is important for universal banks to enter the investment banking business; second, that cross-selling is particularly attractive for highly leveraged borrowers; third, that less-than-market rates are no prerequisite...

  3. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  4. Determining optimal selling price and lot size with process reliability and partial backlogging considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Tsu-Pang; Cheng, Mei-Chuan; Dye, Chung-Yuan; Ouyang, Liang-Yuh

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we extend the classical economic production quantity (EPQ) model by proposing imperfect production processes and quality-dependent unit production cost. The demand rate is described by any convex decreasing function of the selling price. In addition, we allow for shortages and a time-proportional backlogging rate. For any given selling price, we first prove that the optimal production schedule not only exists but also is unique. Next, we show that the total profit per unit time is a concave function of price when the production schedule is given. We then provide a simple algorithm to find the optimal selling price and production schedule for the proposed model. Finally, we use a couple of numerical examples to illustrate the algorithm and conclude this article with suggestions for possible future research.

  5. Optimal Incentives to Foster Cross Selling: An Economic Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Decrouppe, Andre

    2014-01-01

    Cross selling is the practice of selling additional products to an existing customer. It has the potential to boost revenues and can be beneficial for both the company and the customer. For many multi-divisional companies with product or service oriented organizational structures the attempt to realize the benefits of cross selling generates incentive problems. In this thesis, three problems spread over three business levels are identified. Firstly, management needs to (fina...

  6. Determinants Of Consumers’ Satisfaction and Acceptance of Direct Selling

    OpenAIRE

    Alturas, Bráulio; Santos, Maria da Conceição; Pereira, Ivo

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the factors that influence the consumers’ satisfaction and acceptance of direct selling. Direct selling has been exhibiting in the last decade substantial growth in sales revenues and number of salespeople involved. Also the acceptance on the part of the consumers has been increasing; in spite of they show more and more demanding and informed. The literature reveals that the relationship between customer satisfaction and direct selling has not been sufficiently studied, yet...

  7. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

  8. 47 CFR 73.4005 - Advertising-refusal to sell.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Advertising-refusal to sell. 73.4005 Section 73.4005 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) BROADCAST RADIO SERVICES RADIO BROADCAST SERVICES Rules Applicable to All Broadcast Stations § 73.4005 Advertising—refusal to sell. See 412...

  9. Research and Application of a Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Data Decomposition for Electrical Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuqi Dong

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate short-term electrical load forecasting plays a pivotal role in the national economy and people’s livelihood through providing effective future plans and ensuring a reliable supply of sustainable electricity. Although considerable work has been done to select suitable models and optimize the model parameters to forecast the short-term electrical load, few models are built based on the characteristics of time series, which will have a great impact on the forecasting accuracy. For that reason, this paper proposes a hybrid model based on data decomposition considering periodicity, trend and randomness of the original electrical load time series data. Through preprocessing and analyzing the original time series, the generalized regression neural network optimized by genetic algorithm is used to forecast the short-term electrical load. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid model can not only achieve a good fitting ability, but it can also approximate the actual values when dealing with non-linear time series data with periodicity, trend and randomness.

  10. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  11. Climate Research and Seasonal Forecasting for West Africans: Perceptions, Dissemination, and Use?.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarhule, Aondover; Lamb, Peter J.

    2003-12-01

    Beginning in response to the disastrous drought of 1968 73, considerable research and monitoring have focused on the characteristics, causes, predictability, and impacts of West African Soudano Sahel (10° 18°N) rainfall variability and drought. While these efforts have generated substantial information on a range of these topics, very little is known of the extent to which communities, activities at risk, and policy makers are aware of, have access to, or use such information. This situation has prevailed despite Glantz&;s provocative BAMS paper on the use and value of seasonal forecasts for the Sahel more than a quarter century ago. We now provide a systematic reevaluation of these issues based on questionnaire responses of 566 participants (in 13 communities) and 26 organizations in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. The results reveal that rural inhabitants have limited access to climate information, with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) being the most important source. Moreover, the pathways for information flow are generally weakly connected and informal. As a result, utilization of the results of climate research is very low to nonexistent, even by organizations responsible for managing the effects of climate variability. Similarly, few people have access to seasonal climate forecasts, although the vast majority expressed a willingness to use such information when it becomes available. Those respondents with access expressed great enthusiasm and satisfaction with seasonal forecasts. The results suggest that inhabitants of the Soudano Sahel savanna are keen for changes that improve their ability to cope with climate variability, but the lack of information on alternative courses of action is a major constraint. Our study, thus, essentially leaves unchanged both Glantz&;s negative “tentative conclusion” and more positive “preliminary assessment” of 25 years ago. Specifically, while many of the infrastructural deficiencies and socioeconomic

  12. A Consumer-Driven Approach To Increase Suggestive Selling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohn, Don; Austin, John; Sanford, Alison

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of the effectiveness of behavioral interventions in improving suggestive selling behavior of sales staff focuses on a study that examined the efficacy of a consumer-driven approach to improve suggestive selling behavior of three employees of a fast food franchise. Reports that consumer-driven intervention increased suggestive selling…

  13. Students Write, Then "Sell" Ad Copy to Class.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galician, Mary Lou

    1986-01-01

    Describes a course in commercial copywriting for electronic media in which students must also present orally their copy to the class to drive home two points: (1) the writing has to sell products, and (2) the writer has to sell the spot or campaign to the client or employers. (HTH)

  14. Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-06-01

    Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

  15. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  16. Selling bread

    OpenAIRE

    Thomson, John, 1837-1921, photographer

    2003-01-01

    85 x 107 mm. Woodburytype. A portrait of an old woman seated on a chair, with a basket on her lap. The portrait is in Thomson's 'Through Cyprus with the camera, in the autumn of 1878' (vol.1, London: Sampson Low, Marston, Searle, and Rivington, 1879). The photograph is annotated: 'In the features of this old dame, who earns her living by selling bread in Larnaca, there still linger traces of youthful comeliness. Her thin locks are silvered with age, and the years, as they dragged heavily...

  17. DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN FEDERATION POWER SELLING COMPANY STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. V. Grishkevich

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Strategic for power selling companies (PSC are buying, selling and investment activities. Buying activities are to be planned, selling activities predicted and both optimized by PSC on the basis of price and consumer number dynamics with due account of other factors. Very important is to develop the market of derivative instruments (derivatives as part of the risk management mechanism at all levels including that of the state, to use up-to-date and ecologically favorable technologies as well as renewable energy sources with due account of ecology improvement measurement costs.

  18. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research

    OpenAIRE

    Song, H; Li, G

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there i...

  19. Book selling and e-books in Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Maceviciute

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the issue of the understanding of the book-selling situation as Swedish booksellers see it. It pursues the answers to the following questions: 1. What are the perceptions of Swedish booksellers of the impact of e-books on their business? 2. What drivers are important for Swedish booksellers for adopting and developing e-book sales through their own sales channels? 3. What do they perceive as barriers to e-book selling through their own channels? The authors have employed the analysis of the secondary statistical data and a survey of Swedish booksellers to answer their questions. The results of the investigation have shown that the Swedish booksellers do not feel their bookshops, or business in general, are threatened by e-books. The opinions on e-books do not differ between the few selling e-books and others who do not offer this product. The reasons for selling e-books are well-functioning routines and personal interest in the product. The reasons for not selling the books are the lack of demand and technical resources as well as contractual agreements with e-book publishers or vendors. So, technical resources for e-book sales, routines, and contracts with publishers are the main premises for this activity. The biggest barriers to e-book sales are: a the price as one can see not only in the answers of the booksellers, but also in the drop of sales obviously related to the rise of prices during 2014; b lack of demand from customers who do not enquire about e-books in bookshops. This leads to the belief that e-books will be sold mostly online either directly from publishers and authors or through online booksellers. However, an equal number of booksellers believe that physical bookshops will be selling printed books and e-books in the future. The future of e-books seems to be quite secure and non-threatening to printed books from the point of view of booksellers. The growth of e-book sales is quite slow and the respondents

  20. Research on light rail electric load forecasting based on ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yifan

    2018-04-01

    The article compares a variety of time series models and combines the characteristics of power load forecasting. Then, a light load forecasting model based on ARMA model is established. Based on this model, a light rail system is forecasted. The prediction results show that the accuracy of the model prediction is high.

  1. A Framework for Personalized Dynamic Cross-Selling in E-Commerce Retailing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timalsina, Arun Kumar

    2012-01-01

    Cross-selling and product bundling are prevalent strategies in the retail sector. Instead of static bundling offers, i.e. giving the same offer to everyone, personalized dynamic cross-selling generates targeted bundle offers and can help maximize revenues and profits. In resolving the two basic problems of dynamic cross-selling, which involves…

  2. Selling the PSS in a School of Business: Relationship Selling in Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titus, David; Harris, Garth; Gulati, Rajesh; Bristow, Dennis

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a step-by-step process for the development and implementation of a professional selling specialization program in the marketing curriculum of a school of business at an AACSB accredited state university. The program is presented in detail along with the process followed in order to develop support for the program with three…

  3. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  4. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  5. Real-Time Adaptation of Influence Strategies in Online Selling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaptein, M.C.; Parvinen, P.

    2014-01-01

    Real-time adjustments in online selling are becoming increasingly common. In this paper we describe a novel method of real-time adaptation, and introduce influence strategies as a useful level of analysis for personalization of online selling. The proposed method incorporates three perspectives on

  6. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  7. Implementation of fuzzy logic to determining selling price of products in a local corporate chain store

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristiana, S. P. D.

    2017-12-01

    Corporate chain store is one type of retail industries companies that are developing growing rapidly in Indonesia. The competition between retail companies is very tight, so retailer companies should evaluate its performance continuously in order to survive. The selling price of products is one of the essential attributes and gets attention of many consumers where it’s used to evaluate the performance of the industry. This research aimed to determine optimal selling price of product with considering cost factors, namely purchase price of the product from supplier, holding costs, and transportation costs. Fuzzy logic approach is used in data processing with MATLAB software. Fuzzy logic is selected to solve the problem because this method can consider complexities factors. The result is a model of determination of the optimal selling price by considering three cost factors as inputs in the model. Calculating MAPE and model prediction ability for some products are used as validation and verification where the average value is 0.0525 for MAPE and 94.75% for prediction ability. The conclusion is this model can predict the selling price of up to 94.75%, so it can be used as tools for the corporate chain store in particular to determine the optimal selling price for its products.

  8. The relationship between diversion-related attitudes and sharing and selling buprenorphine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, Shannon R; Anderson, Bradley J; Bailey, Genie L; Stein, Michael D

    2017-07-01

    Buprenorphine medication-assisted treatment (B-MAT) is an efficacious and popular outpatient treatment for opioid use disorder. However, the likelihood of buprenorphine diversion is a public health concern. We examined the relationship between attitudes toward diversion as predictors of both sharing and selling buprenorphine. Participants (n=476) were patients undergoing short-term inpatient opioid detoxification. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted association of sharing and selling buprenorphine with demographics, substance use behaviors, and attitudes toward sharing and selling buprenorphine. Among the two hundred persons who had ever been prescribed buprenorphine (73.4% male, 89% heroin users), 50.5% reported they had shared buprenorphine and 28.0% reported they had sold buprenorphine. Controlling for other covariates, the odds of sharing buprenorphine were 3.17 (95% CI 1.21; 8.32) times higher for persons who agreed that it was "right to share buprenorphine with dope sick friends" than for those who did not agree with this attitude. Attitudes toward selling (OR 2.92; 95% CI 1.35; 6.21) and sharing (OR 4.12; 95% CI 1.64; 10.32) buprenorphine were the only significant correlates of selling, with the odds of selling exponentially greater among persons with favorable attitudes toward sharing or selling buprenorphine. Although considered diversion, sharing B-MAT is normative among B-MAT patients. Assessing B-MAT patients' attitudes about diversion may help identify patients requiring enhanced oversight, education, or intervention aimed at modifying attitudes to reduce their likelihood to share or sell buprenorphine. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Ethical responsibilities of pharmacists when selling complementary medicines: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salman Popattia, Amber; Winch, Sarah; La Caze, Adam

    2018-04-01

    The widespread sale of complementary medicines in community pharmacy raises important questions regarding the responsibilities of pharmacists when selling complementary medicines. This study reviews the academic literature that explores a pharmacist's responsibilities when selling complementary medicines. International Pharmaceutical Abstracts, Embase, PubMed, Cinahl, PsycINFO and Philosopher's index databases were searched for articles written in English and published between 1995 and 2017. Empirical studies discussing pharmacists' practices or perceptions, consumers' expectations and normative studies discussing ethical perspectives or proposing ethical frameworks related to pharmacists' responsibilities in selling complementary medicines were included in the review. Fifty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. The majority of the studies discussing the responsibilities of pharmacists selling complementary medicines had an empirical focus. Pharmacists and consumers identified counselling and ensuring safe use of complementary medicines as the primary responsibilities of pharmacists. No formal ethical framework is explicitly employed to describe the responsibilities of pharmacists selling complementary medicines. To the degree any ethical framework is employed, a number of papers implicitly rely on principlism. The studies discussing the ethical perspectives of selling complementary medicines mainly describe the ethical conflict between a pharmacist's business and health professional role. No attempt is made to provide guidance on appropriate ways to resolve the conflict. There is a lack of explicit normative advice in the existing literature regarding the responsibilities of pharmacists selling complementary medicines. This review identifies the need to develop a detailed practice-specific ethical framework to guide pharmacists regarding their responsibilities when selling complementary medicines. © 2018 Royal Pharmaceutical Society.

  10. The Debtor’s Property Selling in the Cross-Border Insolvency Proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sproge Daiga

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The title of this research is “The debtor’s property selling in the cross-border insolvency proceedings”. The insolvency proceeding gets the cross-border status also in case, if a debtor is an owner of the property outside of the main interests’ centre, namely, in another country. Therefore, there are many problematic cases when insolvency administrator (also called insolvency practitioner defines the real estate in this other country and has to make a decision concerning the methods of selling the real estate in accordance with the law of the Member State in which territory the insolvency proceedings have been started. At the same time, the administrator shall provide that the property is sold in particular with regard to procedures for the realization of assets defined in the legislation of that country, where such real estate has been located. The article’s aim is to give a view of the features of the sale of the property in the insolvency proceedings and to define the possible lack and improvements in the cross-border insolvency concerning the selling of a debtor’s property. The European Parliament and the Council of the European Union has adopted Regulation (EU 2015/848 of 20 May 2015 on Insolvency proceedings, which shall apply from 26 June 2017, with some exceptions Despite the regulation of the cross-border insolvency has been improved, the procedure of the property disposal is still incomplete in the cross-border insolvency proceedings. Within the study the following research methods are applied: the analytical method, comparative method, sociological method and descriptive method. The predicted value of the research is theoretical and also practical. The research should be useful for the insolvency proceedings administrators, the companies and the banks, other experts involved in the cross-border insolvency proceedings, as well as for students to improve their theoretical knowledge about the cross-border insolvency.

  11. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  12. Dynamical behavior of price forecasting in structures of group correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong; Kim, Kyungsik

    2015-07-01

    We investigate the prediction of the future prices from the structures and the networks of the companies in special financial groups. After the financial group network has been constructed from the value of the high cross-correlation, each company in a group is simulated and analyzed how it buys or sells stock is anaylzed and how it makes rational investments is forecasted. In the shortmemory behavior rather than the long-memory behavior, each company among a group can make a rational investment decision by using a stochastic evolution rule in the financial network. In particular, we simulate and analyze the investment situation in connection with the empirical data and the simulated result.

  13. Cross-correlations in volume space: Differences between buy and sell volumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sun Young; Hwang, Dong Il; Kim, Min Jae; Koh, In Gyu; Kim, Soo Yong

    2011-03-01

    We study the cross-correlations of buy and sell volumes on the Korean stock market in high frequency. We observe that the pulling effects of volumes are as small as that of returns. The properties of the correlations of buy and sell volumes differ. They are explained by the degree of synchronization of stock volumes. Further, the pulling effects on the minimal spanning tree are studied. In minimal spanning trees with directed links, the large pulling effects are clustered at the center, not uniformly distributed. The Epps effect of buy and sell volumes are observed. The reversal of the cross-correlations of buy and sell volumes is also detected.

  14. Managing demand uncertainty: probabilistic selling versus inventory substitution

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Y.; Hua, Guowei; Wang, Shouyang; Zhang, Juliang; Fernández Alarcón, Vicenç

    2018-01-01

    Demand variability is prevailing in the current rapidly changing business environment, which makes it difficult for a retailer that sells multiple substitutable products to determine the optimal inventory. To combat demand uncertainty, both strategies of inventory substitution and probabilistic selling can be used. Although the two strategies differ in operation, we believe that they share a common feature in combating demand uncertainty by encouraging some customers to give up some specific ...

  15. Evaluation of snowmelt simulation in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jiming; Wen, Lijuan

    2012-05-01

    The objective of this study is to better understand and improve snowmelt simulations in the advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model by coupling it with the Community Land Model (CLM) Version 3.5. Both WRF and CLM are developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The automated Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) station data over the Columbia River Basin in the northwestern United States are used to evaluate snowmelt simulations generated with the coupled WRF-CLM model. These SNOTEL data include snow water equivalent (SWE), precipitation, and temperature. The simulations cover the period of March through June 2002 and focus mostly on the snowmelt season. Initial results show that when compared to observations, WRF-CLM significantly improves the simulations of SWE, which is underestimated when the release version of WRF is coupled with the Noah and Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface schemes, in which snow physics is oversimplified. Further analysis shows that more realistic snow surface energy allocation in CLM is an important process that results in improved snowmelt simulations when compared to that in Noah and RUC. Additional simulations with WRF-CLM at different horizontal spatial resolutions indicate that accurate description of topography is also vital to SWE simulations. WRF-CLM at 10 km resolution produces the most realistic SWE simulations when compared to those produced with coarser spatial resolutions in which SWE is remarkably underestimated. The coupled WRF-CLM provides an important tool for research and forecasts in weather, climate, and water resources at regional scales.

  16. Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

    1991-12-01

    Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

  17. Credibility of management earnings forecasts and future returns

    OpenAIRE

    Norio Kitagawa; Akinobu Shuto

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of managerial discretion over their initial earnings forecasts on future performance. First, by estimating the discretionary portion of initial management earnings forecasts (defined as discretionary forecasts) based on the findings of fundamental analysis research, we find that firms with higher discretionary forecasts are more likely to miss their earnings forecast at the end of the fiscal year and revise their forecasts downward to meet their earnings for...

  18. A New Empirical Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the Broadband Penetration: A Short Research in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salpasaranis Konstantinos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present a short research about the overall broadband penetration in Greece. In this research, a new empirical deterministic model is proposed for the short-term forecast of the cumulative broadband adoption. The fitting performance of the model is compared with some widely used diffusion models for the cumulative adoption of new telecommunication products, namely, Logistic, Gompertz, Flexible Logistic (FLOG, Box-Cox, Richards, and Bass models. The fitting process is done with broadband penetration official data for Greece. In conclusion, comparing these models with the empirical model, it could be argued that the latter yields well enough statistics indicators for fitting and forecasting performance. It also stresses the need for further research and performance analysis of the model in other more mature broadband markets.

  19. Numerical simulation of rainfall and temperature over Kenya using weather research and forecasting-environmental modelling system (WRF-EMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sagero Obaigwa Philip

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on one of the high resolution models used for weather forecasting at Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD. It reviews the skill and accuracy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF - Environmental Modeling System (EMS model, in simulating weather over Kenya. The study period was March to May 2011, during the rainy season over Kenya. The model output was compared with the observed data from 27 synoptic stations spread over the study area, to determine the performance of the model in terms of its skill and accuracy in forecasting. The spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature showed that the WRF model was capable of reproducing the observed general pattern especially for temperature. The model has skill in forecasting both rainfall and temperature over the study area. However, the model may underestimate rainfall of more than 10 mm/day and displace its location and overestimate rainfall of less than 1 mm/day. Therefore, during the period of enhanced rainfall especially in the month of April and part of May the model forecast needs to be complemented by other models or forecasting methods before giving a forecast. There is need to improve its performance over the domain through review of the parameterization of small scale physical processes and more observed data need to be simulated into the model.

  20. 29 CFR 780.710 - A country elevator may sell products and services to farmers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... farmers. 780.710 Section 780.710 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) WAGE AND HOUR DIVISION... Elevator § 780.710 A country elevator may sell products and services to farmers. Section 13(b)(14... feeders and other farmers, sell fuels for farm use, sell and treat seeds, and sell other farm supplies...

  1. Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

    2009-01-01

    Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific

  2. Who stops selling? A systematic analysis of ex-tobacco retailers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feletto, Eleonora; Burton, Suzan; Williams, Kelly; Fry, Rae; Sutton, Clare; Bagus, Lachlan; Egger, Sam

    2016-03-09

    There is evidence that wide distribution of cigarettes contributes to smoking, and multiple commentators have called for a review of tobacco retailing. This study analyses retailers who stop selling cigarettes, why they do so, and discusses the implications for tobacco control. An audit of tobacco retailers in the Australian state of NSW was used to identify retailers who had stopped selling tobacco, and they were then compared with current retailers to determine how many, and what types of outlets stop selling tobacco. Attempts were made to contact and interview all former tobacco retailers identified in three audited regions. In-depth interviews were conducted with 13 ex-tobacco retailers, or 31% of the subset of ex-tobacco retailers. Low-volume outlet types were over-represented as a proportion of retailers exiting the market, and some had resumed selling within 18 months of the audit. Low profits were often cited as a contributor to stopping; however, in all but one case, the decision to stop selling was also influenced by a significant change in business circumstances-either legislative or other business changes. Few retailers stop selling tobacco while continuing in the same business, and those who stop disproportionately represent retailer types with low sales volume. The results suggest that legislative changes provide a window where retailers could be prompted to exit the market. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  3. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  4. A review of forecasting models for new products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Mas-Machuca

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The main objective of this article is to present an up-to-date review of new product forecasting techniques. Design/methodology/approach: A systematic review of forecasting journals was carried out using the ISI-Web of Knowledge database. Several articles were retrieved and examined, and forecasting techniques relevant to this study were selected and assessed. Findings: The strengths, weaknesses and applications of the main forecasting models are discussed to examine trends and set future challenges. Research limitations/implications: A theoretical reference framework for forecasting techniques classified into judgmental, consumer/market research, cause-effect and artificial intelligence is proposed. Future research can assess these models qualitatively. Practical implications: Companies are currently motivated to launch new products and thus attract new customers to expand their market share.  In order to reduce uncertainty and risk, many companies go to extra lengths to forecast sales accurately using several techniques. Originality/value: This article outlines new lines of research on the improvement of new product performance which will aid managers in decision making and allow companies to sustain their competitive advantages in this challenging world.

  5. Market Exclusivity Time for Top Selling Originator Drugs in Canada: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lexchin, Joel

    2017-09-01

    This study looks at market exclusivity time for the top selling originator drugs in Canada. Total sales for drugs without competition were also calculated. A list of the top selling originator drugs by dollar sales from 2009 to 2015 inclusive, except for 2010, was compiled along with their annual sales. Health Canada databases were used to extract the following information: generic name, date of Notice of Compliance (NOC, date of marketing authorization), whether the product was a small molecule drug or a biologic, and date of NOC for a generic or biosimilar. Market exclusivity time was calculated in days for drugs. A total of 121 drugs were identified. There were 96 small molecule drugs (63 with a generic competitor and 33 with no generic competitor) and 25 biologics (none with a biosimilar competitor). The 63 drugs with a competitor had a mean market exclusivity time of 4478 days (12.3 years) (95% CI 4159-4798). The 58 drugs without competition had total annual sales of Can$8.59 billion and were on the market for a median of 5357 days (14.7 years) (interquartile range 3291-6679) as of January 31, 2017. Top selling originator drugs in Canada have a considerably longer period of market exclusivity than the 8 to 10 years that the research-based pharmaceutical industry claims. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Demand Forecasting Methods in Accommodation Establishments: A Research with Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebru ULUCAN

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available As it being seen in every sector, demand forecasting in tourism is been conducted with various qualitative and quantitative methods. In recent years, artificial neural network models, which have been developed as an alternative to these forecasting methods, give the nearest values in forecasting with the smallest failure percentage. This study aims to reveal that accomodation establishments can use the neural network models as an alternative while forecasting their demand. With this aim, neural network models have been tested by using the sold room values between the period of 2013-2016 of a five star hotel in Istanbul and it is found that the results acquired from the testing models are the nearest values comparing the realized figures. In the light of these results, tourism demand of the hotel for 2017 and 2018 has been forecasted.

  7. Upaya Meningkatkan Pendapatan Bank Melalui Optimalisasi Cross Selling Terhadap Pelanggan

    OpenAIRE

    Endang Nuryadin

    2001-01-01

    The article explores some efforts to generate Bank’s income by optimalizing cross selling for is existing customers. After explaining background and clarifying that terminologies the paper starts with efforts and constraints of cross selling optimalization, those problem solutions, and how to promote the bank products.

  8. Opaque Selling: Static or Inter-Temporal Price Discrimination?

    OpenAIRE

    Courty, Pascal; Liu, Wenyu

    2013-01-01

    We study opaque selling in the hotel industry using data from Hotwire.com. An opaque room discloses only the star level and general location of the hotel at the time of booking. The exact identity of the hotel is disclosed after the booking is completed. Opaque rooms sell at a discount of 40 percent relative to regular rooms. The discount increases when hotels are more differentiated. This finding is consistent with static models of price discrimination. No support was found for predictions s...

  9. Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebb, Andrew T; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

    2015-01-01

    Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials.

  10. Time series analysis for psychological research: examining and forecasting change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jebb, Andrew T.; Tay, Louis; Wang, Wei; Huang, Qiming

    2015-01-01

    Psychological research has increasingly recognized the importance of integrating temporal dynamics into its theories, and innovations in longitudinal designs and analyses have allowed such theories to be formalized and tested. However, psychological researchers may be relatively unequipped to analyze such data, given its many characteristics and the general complexities involved in longitudinal modeling. The current paper introduces time series analysis to psychological research, an analytic domain that has been essential for understanding and predicting the behavior of variables across many diverse fields. First, the characteristics of time series data are discussed. Second, different time series modeling techniques are surveyed that can address various topics of interest to psychological researchers, including describing the pattern of change in a variable, modeling seasonal effects, assessing the immediate and long-term impact of a salient event, and forecasting future values. To illustrate these methods, an illustrative example based on online job search behavior is used throughout the paper, and a software tutorial in R for these analyses is provided in the Supplementary Materials. PMID:26106341

  11. Upaya Meningkatkan Pendapatan Bank Melalui Optimalisasi Cross Selling Terhadap Pelanggan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Endang Nuryadin

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available The article explores some efforts to generate Bank’s income by optimalizing cross selling for is existing customers. After explaining background and clarifying that terminologies the paper starts with efforts and constraints of cross selling optimalization, those problem solutions, and how to promote the bank products.

  12. Environmental noise forecasting based on support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yumei; Zan, Xinwu; Chen, Tianyi; Xiang, Shihan

    2018-01-01

    As an important pollution source, the noise pollution is always the researcher's focus. Especially in recent years, the noise pollution is seriously harmful to the human beings' environment, so the research about the noise pollution is a very hot spot. Some noise monitoring technologies and monitoring systems are applied in the environmental noise test, measurement and evaluation. But, the research about the environmental noise forecasting is weak. In this paper, a real-time environmental noise monitoring system is introduced briefly. This monitoring system is working in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province. It is monitoring and collecting the environmental noise about more than 20 enterprises in this district. Based on the large amount of noise data, the noise forecasting by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is studied in detail. Compared with the time series forecasting model and the artificial neural network forecasting model, the SVM forecasting model has some advantages such as the smaller data size, the higher precision and stability. The noise forecasting results based on the SVM can provide the important and accuracy reference to the prevention and control of the environmental noise.

  13. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  14. The forecasting research of early warning systems for atmospheric pollutants: A case in Yangtze River Delta region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yiliao; Qin, Shanshan; Qu, Jiansheng; Liu, Feng

    2015-10-01

    The issue of air quality regarding PM pollution levels in China is a focus of public attention. To address that issue, to date, a series of studies is in progress, including PM monitoring programs, PM source apportionment, and the enactment of new ambient air quality index standards. However, related research concerning computer modeling for PM future trends estimation is rare, despite its significance to forecasting and early warning systems. Thereby, a study regarding deterministic and interval forecasts of PM is performed. In this study, data on hourly and 12 h-averaged air pollutants are applied to forecast PM concentrations within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region of China. The characteristics of PM emissions have been primarily examined and analyzed using different distribution functions. To improve the distribution fitting that is crucial for estimating PM levels, an artificial intelligence algorithm is incorporated to select the optimal parameters. Following that step, an ANF model is used to conduct deterministic forecasts of PM. With the identified distributions and deterministic forecasts, different levels of PM intervals are estimated. The results indicate that the lognormal or gamma distributions are highly representative of the recorded PM data with a goodness-of-fit R2 of approximately 0.998. Furthermore, the results of the evaluation metrics (MSE, MAPE and CP, AW) also show high accuracy within the deterministic and interval forecasts of PM, indicating that this method enables the informative and effective quantification of future PM trends.

  15. Day ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a mixed data model and hybrid forecast method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2008-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, forecast of energy prices is a key information for the market participants. However, price signal usually has a complex behavior due to its nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In spite of all performed researches on this area in the recent years, there is still an essential need for more accurate and robust price forecast methods. In this paper, a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and a hybrid forecast method is proposed for this purpose. The hybrid method is composed of cascaded forecasters where each forecaster consists of a neural network (NN) and an evolutionary algorithms (EA). Both time domain and wavelet domain features are considered in a mixed data model for price forecast, in which the candidate input variables are refined by a feature selection technique. The adjustable parameters of the whole method are fine-tuned by a cross-validation technique. The proposed method is examined on PJM electricity market and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. (author)

  16. Young women selling sex online – narratives on regulating feelings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonsson LS

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Linda S Jonsson,1 Carl Göran Svedin,1 Margareta Hydén2 1Division of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Department of Clinical and Experimental Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden; 2Department of Social and Welfare Studies, Linköping University, Norrköping, Sweden Abstract: The current study concerns young women’s life stories of their experiences selling sex online before the age of 18. The aim was to gain an understanding of young women’s perceptions of the reasons they started, continued, and stopped selling sex. The study included interviews with 15 young women between the ages of 15 and 25 (M=18.9. Thematic analysis was used to identify similarities and differences in the narratives. Three themes and eight sub-themes were identified in relation to different stages in their lives in the sex trade. The themes were organized into three parts, each with its own storyline: “Entering – adverse life experiences”; traumatic events: feeling different and being excluded. “Immersion – using the body as a tool for regulating feelings”; being seen: being touched: being in control: affect regulation and self-harming. “Exiting – change or die”; living close to death: the process of quitting. The informants all had stable social lives in the sense that they had roofs over their heads, food to eat, and no substance-abuse issues. None had a third party who arranged the sexual contacts and none were currently trafficked. They described how their experiences of traumatic events and of feeling different and excluded had led them into the sex trade. Selling sex functioned as a way to be seen, to handle traumatic events, and to regulate feelings. Professionals working with young people who sell sex online need to understand the complex web of mixed feelings and emotional needs that can play a role in selling sex. Young people selling sex might need guidance in relationship building as well as help

  17. Cash Flow Forecasting : Proposal for New Long-Term Cash Flow Forecast in the Case Company

    OpenAIRE

    Pitkänen, Annika

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a cash flow forecast model for the case company. The case company in this thesis was a Finnish building construction company. The group controlling set a target to improve the corporate treasury’s current long-term cash flow forecast because it was inaccurate and it often had outstanding deficiencies between actual and forecasted figures. A project team was set up to investigate on this issue and this research and development project is documented in t...

  18. An intervention to reduce the number of convenience stores selling tobacco: feasibility study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paynter, Janine; Glover, Marewa; Bullen, Chris; Sonia, Deepika

    2016-05-01

    Reduction of the availability of tobacco has been proposed as a means of reducing and denormalising tobacco use. Some retailers have stopped selling tobacco. Therefore, we investigated how willing New Zealand convenience store owners were to stop selling tobacco or sell nicotine replacement therapy. Promotion of their stores was offered as an incentive to stop selling tobacco. We asked convenience store owners in the Auckland metropolitan region of New Zealand to choose one of three actions. The first was to stop selling tobacco for a short period of time; the second was to restrict the hours that they sold tobacco; the third was to display and sell nicotine replacement therapy. All participating retailers completed a short interview about selling tobacco. We also surveyed customers about nicotine replacement and cessation. One-third of eligible retailers agreed to participate. Most who participated (93%) were unwilling to stop or restrict tobacco sales and 2 (7%) had already stopped selling tobacco. Tobacco was perceived as a key product for their businesses. Very few customers who purchased cigarettes noticed nicotine replacement therapy or obtained it from convenience stores. Substantially reducing the availability of tobacco in communities is likely to require legislative approaches, underpinned by sustained community pressure and support for convenience store owners who are willing to change their business model. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  19. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  20. International Workshop on Industry Practices for Forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Poggi, Jean-Michel; Brossat, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The chapters in this volume stress the need for advances in theoretical understanding to go hand-in-hand with the widespread practical application of forecasting in industry. Forecasting and time series prediction have enjoyed considerable attention over the last few decades, fostered by impressive advances in observational capabilities and measurement procedures. On June 5-7, 2013, an international Workshop on Industry Practices for FORecasting was held in Paris, France, organized and supported by the OSIRIS Department of Electricité de France Research and Development Division. In keeping with tradition, both theoretical statistical results and practical contributions on this active field of statistical research and on forecasting issues in a rapidly evolving industrial environment are presented. The volume reflects the broad spectrum of the conference, including 16 articles contributed by specialists in various areas. The material compiled is broad in scope and ranges from new findings on forecasting in in...

  1. The forecast scenario of rural territories infrastructure development (on the example of the Volga federal district

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valery Nikolaevich Zekin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ point of view at the forecast of rural territories infrastructure development in Permskiy krai, Udmurtia and Kirovskaya Oblast by considering of innovative technology implementation is given in this paper. The improvement of rural people life conditions has been planned on the basis of this research. The indexes for life quality of rural people assessment were determined. The main ways for their increasing were defined. An important role in this process belongs to the small innovative enterprises, which develop new technologies and forward them to rural enterprises. It reduces risks because of their implementation and promotes the sustainable development of rural territories. It is planned that on the basis of the authors’ method of innovations application, the subsidized regions using their potential will sell their products on the external market of countries accessed to WTO and thereby will provide population with employment and increase its standard of living.

  2. WRF-Fire: coupled weather-wildland fire modeling with the weather research and forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janice L. Coen; Marques Cameron; John Michalakes; Edward G. Patton; Philip J. Riggan; Kara M. Yedinak

    2012-01-01

    A wildland fire behavior module (WRF-Fire) was integrated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) public domain numerical weather prediction model. The fire module is a surface fire behavior model that is two-way coupled with the atmospheric model. Near-surface winds from the atmospheric model are interpolated to a finer fire grid and used, with fuel properties...

  3. Availability of websites offering to sell psilocybin spores and psilocybin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lott, Jason P; Marlowe, Douglas B; Forman, Robert F

    2009-09-01

    This study assesses the availability of websites offering to sell psilocybin spores and psilocybin, a powerful hallucinogen contained in Psilocybe mushrooms. Over a 25-month period beginning in March 2003, eight searches were conducted in Google using the term "psilocybin spores." In each search the first 100 nonsponsored links obtained were scored by two independent raters according to standardized criteria to determine whether they offered to sell psilocybin or psilocybin spores. No attempts were made to procure the products offered for sale in order to ascertain whether the marketed psilocybin was in fact "genuine" or "counterfeit." Of the 800 links examined, 58% led to websites offering to sell psilocybin spores. Additionally, evidence that whole Psilocybe mushrooms are offered for sale online was obtained. Psilocybin and psilocybin spores were found to be widely available for sale over the Internet. Online purchase of psilocybin may facilitate illicit use of this potent psychoactive substance. Additional studies are needed to assess whether websites offering to sell psilocybin and psilocybin spores actually deliver their products as advertised.

  4. How reliable is the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The aim for this research is to evaluate the ability of the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to produce hydrological, e.g. evaporation (ET), soil moisture (SM), runoff, and baseflow. First, the VIC mo...

  5. Does organ selling violate human dignity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpinar-Şencan, Zümrüt; Baumann, Holger; Biller-Andorno, Nikola

    2017-11-01

    Shortages in the number of donated organs after death and the growing number of end-stage organ failure patients on waiting lists call for looking at alternatives to increase the number of organs that could be used for transplantation purposes. One option that has led to a legal and ethical debate is to have regulated markets in human organs. Opponents of a market in human organs offer different arguments that are mostly founded on contingent factors that can be adjusted. However, some authors have asked the question whether we still have a reason to believe that there is something wrong with offering human organs for sale for transplantation purposes, even if the circumstances under which the practice takes place are improved. One prominent argument regarding this appeals to the notion of human dignity. It is argued that organ selling violates human dignity. This paper presents a systematic discussion of dignity-based arguments in the organ selling debate, and then develops a social account of dignity. It is argued that allowing the practice of organ selling inherently runs the risk of promoting the notion that some persons have less worth than others and that persons have a price, which is incompatible with dignity. The approach is defended against possible objections and it is shown that it can capture the notion that autonomy is linked to human dignity in important ways, while dignity at the same time can constrain the autonomous choices of persons with regards to certain practices.

  6. Dynamic interaction between markets for leasing and selling automobiles

    OpenAIRE

    Andrikopoulos, Athanasios; Markellos, Raphael N.

    2015-01-01

    We develop a model of dynamic interactions between price variations in leasing and selling markets for automobiles. Our framework assumes a differential game between multiple Bertrand-type competing firms which offer differentiated products to forward-looking agents. Empirical analysis of our model using monthly US data from 2002 to 2011 shows that variations in selling (cash) market prices lead rapidly dissipating changes of leasing market prices in the opposite direction. We discuss the pra...

  7. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  8. APLIKASI PERENCANAAN PEMBELIAN BARANG PADA PERUSAHAAN MANGGALA MOTOR DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE ARIMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia .

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Manggala Motor is a vehicles selling company. Occasionally the company lacks goods stock so that it can not obtain maximal profit because the customer needs can not be compiled by the company directly. The company needs an application that can forecast the motorcycles selling for next period, the application is expected to solve the company’s problem. The application is made by using ARIMA method (Autoregressive-Integrated-Moving Average. The result of this application is information about the selling forecasting in the next period. It is hoped that the selling forecasting can help the company to prepare the goods stock and fulfill the costumers demand.

  9. Facts versus feelings? The effectiveness of hard versus soft sell appeals in online advertising

    OpenAIRE

    De Veirman, Marijke; Hudders, Liselot; Cauberghe, Veroline

    2015-01-01

    In two experimental studies, the advertising effects of hard versus soft sell appeals are investigated. Both studies show that in online advertising (banner ads and viral video ads), soft sell appeals in advertisements on high involvement products generate a more positive attitude towards the ad than hard sell appeals. In print advertising however, hard sell appeals lead to a more positive Aad, due to the fact that the advertisement is perceived as less irritating and more credible. Additiona...

  10. Selling science to the public

    CERN Document Server

    Catapano, Paola

    1997-01-01

    Science popularization is ÒtheÓ tool to bridge the gap between society at large and the world of science. Compared to formal science communication Ð science taught in schools Ð informal science communication, made by the TV, the press, Òscience centresÓ and visits to scientific laboratories, has an important advantage: it makes the public meet science in a direct, informal way and on its own terms. The public is given an opportunity to develop a personal relationship with science, according to the needs, interests and abilities of the individual. But selling science is a tough job. The object of the sale is not a consumer good, but rather ideas and concepts that are sometimes so complex and distant from common sense that translating them into a comprehensible language and creating interest in the public without betraying the scientific truth is almost impossible. In the research work conducted for the thesis the importance of adopting a marketing approach in science communication is presented. Any scien...

  11. Social-ecological factors associated with selling sex among men who have sex with men in Jamaica: results from a cross-sectional tablet-based survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logie, Carmen H.; Lacombe-Duncan, Ashley; Kenny, Kathleen S.; Levermore, Kandasi; Jones, Nicolette; Baral, Stefan D.; Wang, Ying; Marshall, Annecka; Newman, Peter A.

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background: Globally, men who have sex with men (MSM) experience social marginalization and criminalization that increase HIV vulnerability by constraining access to HIV prevention and care. People who sell sex also experience criminalization, rights violations, and violence, which elevate HIV exposure. MSM who sell sex may experience intersectional stigma and intensified social marginalization, yet have largely been overlooked in epidemiological and social HIV research. In Jamaica, where same sex practices and sex work are criminalized, scant research has investigated sex selling among MSM, including associations with HIV vulnerability. Objective: We aimed to examine social ecological factors associated with selling sex among MSM in Jamaica, including exchanging sex for money, shelter, food, transportation, or drugs/alcohol (past 12 months). Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional survey with a peer-driven sample of MSM in Kingston, Ocho Rios, and Montego Bay. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate intrapersonal/individual, interpersonal/social, and structural factors associated with selling sex. Results: Among 556 MSM, one-third (n = 182; 32.7%) reported selling sex. In the final multivariable model, correlates of selling sex included: individual/intrapersonal (lower safer sex self-efficacy [AOR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.77, 0.94]), interpersonal/social (concurrent partnerships [AOR: 5.52, 95% CI: 1.56, 19.53], a higher need for social support [AOR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.12], lifetime forced sex [AOR: 2.74, 95% 1.65, 4.55]) and structural-level factors (sexual stigma [AOR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.15], food insecurity [AOR: 2.38, 95% CI: 1.41, 4.02], housing insecurity [AOR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.16, 3.26], no regular healthcare provider [AOR: 2.72, 95% CI: 1.60, 4.64]). Conclusions: This study highlights social ecological correlates of selling sex among MSM in Jamaica, in particular elevated stigma and economic insecurity. Findings

  12. Do probabilistic forecasts lead to better decisions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Ramos

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has seen growing research in producing probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts and increasing their reliability. This followed the promise that, supplied with information about uncertainty, people would take better risk-based decisions. In recent years, therefore, research and operational developments have also started focusing attention on ways of communicating the probabilistic forecasts to decision-makers. Communicating probabilistic forecasts includes preparing tools and products for visualisation, but also requires understanding how decision-makers perceive and use uncertainty information in real time. At the EGU General Assembly 2012, we conducted a laboratory-style experiment in which several cases of flood forecasts and a choice of actions to take were presented as part of a game to participants, who acted as decision-makers. Answers were collected and analysed. In this paper, we present the results of this exercise and discuss if we indeed make better decisions on the basis of probabilistic forecasts.

  13. What Do Experts Know About Forecasting Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractExperts possess knowledge and information that are not publicly available. The paper is concerned with forecasting academic journal quality and research impact using a survey of international experts from a national project on ranking academic finance journals in Taiwan. A comparison is

  14. What Do Experts Know About Forecasting Journal Quality? A Comparison with ISI Research Impact in Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractExperts possess knowledge and information that are not publicly available. The paper is concerned with forecasting academic journal quality and research impact using a survey of international experts from a national project on ranking academic finance journals in Taiwan. A comparison is

  15. Kazakhstan sells its silver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Paul.

    1995-01-01

    Kazakhstan's government seems keen to involve foreign companies in financing the large scale exploitation of Central Asia's hydrocarbon reserves. Despite domestic uncertainty about free market ethics, the country's rulers seem keen to sell off some of its present wealth, in terms of oil production, in order to raise finance for internal projects. The author explores which of several options for financing these large projects would prove most beneficial to the Kazakhs themselves. (UK)

  16. Design of an ARM-based Automatic Rice-Selling Machine for Cafeterias

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiliang Kang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available To address the problems of low selling efficiency, poor sanitation conditions, labor-intensive requirement, and quick rice cooling speed in manual rice selling in cafeterias, especially in colleges and secondary schools, this paper presented an Advanced RISC Machines (ARM microprocessor-based rice-selling machine for cafeterias. The machines consisted of a funnel-shaped rice bin, a thermal insulation box, and a conveying and scattering mechanism. Moreover, this machine exerts fuzzy control over stepper motor rpm, and the motor drives the conveyor belt with a scraper to scatter rice, deliver it, and keep it warm. Apart from an external 4*4 keyboard, a point of sale (POS machine, an ARM process and a pressure sensor, the machine is also equipped with card swiping and weighting mechanisms to achieve functions of card swiping payment and precise measurement, respectively. In addition, detection of the right amount of rice and the alarm function are achieved using an ultrasonic sensor and a beeper, respectively. The presence of the rice container on the rice outlet is detected by an optoelectronic switch. Results show that this rice-selling machine achieves precise measurement, quick card swiping, fast rice selling, stable operation, and good rice heat preservation. Therefore, the mechanical design enables the machine to achieve its goals.

  17. Modelos de previsão de preços aplicados aos contratos futuros de boi gordo na BM&F Models of price forecasting applied to futures contracts of live cattle at the Brazilian Futures Market - BM&F

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aureliano Angel Bressan

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the applicability of time series models as a decision tool of buy and sell orders of live cattle futures contracts in the Brazilian Futures Market (BM&F, on dates close to expiration. The models considered are: ARIMA, Neural Networks and Dynamic Linear Models - DLM (this in the classic and bayesian approach. Weekly data, of the spot and futures markets, from 1996 to 1999, are used to calculate the forecasts. The main purpose is to calculate the returns, in buy/sell orders of live cattle futures between 1998 and 1999, in order to show the potentials or limitations of each model. The results show positive returns in almost all contracts analyzed, indicating the potential of the models as a decision tool in operating with futures contracts close to expiration date, with distinction on the performance of the Classic DLM and ARIMA models, although some differences in forecasting accuracy.

  18. A legal and empirical investigation into the direct selling industry’s advocacy in the EU

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tokaji-Nagy, Orsolya

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation is made up of legal and empirical research into the direct selling industry’s advocacy in the European Union. In the context of the European pluralistic democracy or, somewhat pejoratively, the Brussels “lobbyocracy”, the thesis intends to increase lobbying transparency by mapping

  19. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  20. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  1. Factors Associated With American Indian and White Adolescent Drug Selling in Rural Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eitle, David; Eitle, Tamela McNulty

    2014-01-01

    Relatively few studies have examined the correlates of adolescent drug selling in America, with most of these studies focusing on urban settings. The present study examines the risk and protective factors associated with drug selling among American Indian and white adolescents residing in a rural Northwestern state in the United States. Using survey data collected in 2010-2012, we conduct logistic regression analyses exploring the correlates of drug selling (n=568). Generally, we found support for prior explanations of drug selling, but identified some important race-specific differences. Specifically, we found that stress exposure was a risk factor for American Indians, but not whites. Conversely, academic achievement served as a protective factor for white adolescents but not American Indians. Our findings suggest that the race gap in rural drug selling can be explained by considering differences in social bonds, stress exposure, and exposure to substance using family and friends. PMID:26120365

  2. Load forecasting method considering temperature effect for distribution network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Xiao Fang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, the temperature factor was introduced into the load forecasting in this paper. This paper analyzed the characteristics of power load variation, and researched the rule of the load with the temperature change. Based on the linear regression analysis, the mathematical model of load forecasting was presented with considering the temperature effect, and the steps of load forecasting were given. Used MATLAB, the temperature regression coefficient was calculated. Using the load forecasting model, the full-day load forecasting and time-sharing load forecasting were carried out. By comparing and analyzing the forecast error, the results showed that the error of time-sharing load forecasting method was small in this paper. The forecasting method is an effective method to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.

  3. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  4. Frost Monitoring and Forecasting Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and a Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts for Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabuchanga, Eric; Flores, Africa; Malaso, Susan; Mungai, John; Sakwa, Vincent; Shaka, Ayub; Limaye, Ashutosh

    2014-01-01

    Frost is a major challenge across Eastern Africa, severely impacting agricultural farms. Frost damages have wide ranging economic implications on tea and coffee farms, which represent a major economic sector. Early monitoring and forecasting will enable farmers to take preventive actions to minimize the losses. Although clearly important, timely information on when to protect crops from freezing is relatively limited. MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) data, derived from NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites, and 72-hr weather forecasts from the Kenya Meteorological Service's operational Weather Research Forecast model are enabling the Regional Center for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to provide timely information to farmers in the region. This presentation will highlight an ongoing collaboration among the Kenya Meteorological Service, RCMRD, and the Tea Research Foundation of Kenya to identify frost events and provide farmers with potential frost forecasts in Eastern Africa.

  5. Research on industrialization of electric vehicles with its demand forecast using exponential smoothing method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhanglin Peng

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Electric vehicles industry has gotten a rapid development in the world, especially in the developed countries, but still has a gap among different countries or regions. The advanced industrialization experiences of the EVs in the developed countries will have a great helpful for the development of EVs industrialization in the developing countries. This paper seeks to research the industrialization path & prospect of American EVs by forecasting electric vehicles demand and its proportion to the whole car sales based on the historical 37 EVs monthly sales and Cars monthly sales spanning from Dec. 2010 to Dec. 2013, and find out the key measurements to help Chinese government and automobile enterprises to promote Chinese EVs industrialization. Design/methodology: Compared with Single Exponential Smoothing method and Double Exponential Smoothing method, Triple exponential smoothing method is improved and applied in this study. Findings: The research results show that:  American EVs industry will keep a sustained growth in the next 3 months.  Price of the EVs, price of fossil oil, number of charging station, EVs technology and the government market & taxation polices have a different influence to EVs sales. So EVs manufacturers and policy-makers can adjust or reformulate some technology tactics and market measurements according to the forecast results. China can learn from American EVs polices and measurements to develop Chinese EVs industry. Originality/value: The main contribution of this paper is to use the triple exponential smoothing method to forecast the electric vehicles demand and its proportion to the whole automobile sales, and analyze the industrial development of Chinese electric vehicles by American EVs industry.

  6. Verification of short lead time forecast models: applied to Kp and Dst forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wintoft, Peter; Wik, Magnus

    2016-04-01

    In the ongoing EU/H2020 project PROGRESS models that predicts Kp, Dst, and AE from L1 solar wind data will be used as inputs to radiation belt models. The possible lead times from L1 measurements are shorter (10s of minutes to hours) than the typical duration of the physical phenomena that should be forecast. Under these circumstances several metrics fail to single out trivial cases, such as persistence. In this work we explore metrics and approaches for short lead time forecasts. We apply these to current Kp and Dst forecast models. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637302.

  7. Communicating weather forecast uncertainty: Do individual differences matter?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grounds, Margaret A; Joslyn, Susan L

    2018-03-01

    Research suggests that people make better weather-related decisions when they are given numeric probabilities for critical outcomes (Joslyn & Leclerc, 2012, 2013). However, it is unclear whether all users can take advantage of probabilistic forecasts to the same extent. The research reported here assessed key cognitive and demographic factors to determine their relationship to the use of probabilistic forecasts to improve decision quality. In two studies, participants decided between spending resources to prevent icy conditions on roadways or risk a larger penalty when freezing temperatures occurred. Several forecast formats were tested, including a control condition with the night-time low temperature alone and experimental conditions that also included the probability of freezing and advice based on expected value. All but those with extremely low numeracy scores made better decisions with probabilistic forecasts. Importantly, no groups made worse decisions when probabilities were included. Moreover, numeracy was the best predictor of decision quality, regardless of forecast format, suggesting that the advantage may extend beyond understanding the forecast to general decision strategy issues. This research adds to a growing body of evidence that numerical uncertainty estimates may be an effective way to communicate weather danger to general public end users. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Missing Kettles and Too Few Toasters: The Forecasting Methodology at Morphy Richards

    OpenAIRE

    Lane, D; Hughes, D

    2002-01-01

    Faced with problems in forecasting at Morphy Richards, this research represents an investigation into their forecasting methodology following the hypothesis that the current forecasting system was no longer sufficient to ensure guaranteed supply to customers, or to enable forward planning.\\ud \\ud The purpose of the research was to identify any requirements for change within the forecasting system and to identify the ‘best practice’ within the industry. Primary research was carried out using a...

  9. Aviation Turbulence: Dynamics, Forecasting, and Response to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storer, Luke N.; Williams, Paul D.; Gill, Philip G.

    2018-03-01

    Atmospheric turbulence is a major hazard in the aviation industry and can cause injuries to passengers and crew. Understanding the physical and dynamical generation mechanisms of turbulence aids with the development of new forecasting algorithms and, therefore, reduces the impact that it has on the aviation industry. The scope of this paper is to review the dynamics of aviation turbulence, its response to climate change, and current forecasting methods at the cruising altitude of aircraft. Aviation-affecting turbulence comes from three main sources: vertical wind shear instabilities, convection, and mountain waves. Understanding these features helps researchers to develop better turbulence diagnostics. Recent research suggests that turbulence will increase in frequency and strength with climate change, and therefore, turbulence forecasting may become more important in the future. The current methods of forecasting are unable to predict every turbulence event, and research is ongoing to find the best solution to this problem by combining turbulence predictors and using ensemble forecasts to increase skill. The skill of operational turbulence forecasts has increased steadily over recent decades, mirroring improvements in our understanding. However, more work is needed—ideally in collaboration with the aviation industry—to improve observations and increase forecast skill, to help maintain and enhance aviation safety standards in the future.

  10. Results of verification and investigation of wind velocity field forecast. Verification of wind velocity field forecast model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, Takeshi; Kayano, Mitsunaga; Kikuchi, Hideo; Abe, Takeo; Saga, Kyoji

    1995-01-01

    In Environmental Radioactivity Research Institute, the verification and investigation of the wind velocity field forecast model 'EXPRESS-1' have been carried out since 1991. In fiscal year 1994, as the general analysis, the validity of weather observation data, the local features of wind field, and the validity of the positions of monitoring stations were investigated. The EXPRESS which adopted 500 m mesh so far was improved to 250 m mesh, and the heightening of forecast accuracy was examined, and the comparison with another wind velocity field forecast model 'SPEEDI' was carried out. As the results, there are the places where the correlation with other points of measurement is high and low, and it was found that for the forecast of wind velocity field, by excluding the data of the points with low correlation or installing simplified observation stations to take their data in, the forecast accuracy is improved. The outline of the investigation, the general analysis of weather observation data and the improvements of wind velocity field forecast model and forecast accuracy are reported. (K.I.)

  11. Enhanced short-term wind power forecasting and value to grid operations. The wind forecasting improvement project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orwig, Kirsten D. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). Transmission Grid Integration; Benjamin, Stan; Wilczak, James; Marquis, Melinda [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.; Stern, Andrew [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD (United States); Clark, Charlton; Cline, Joel [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Wind and Water Power Program; Finley, Catherine [WindLogics, Grand Rapids, MN (United States); Freedman, Jeffrey [AWS Truepower, Albany, NY (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The current state-of-the-art wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-h timeframe has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risks to the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: (1) a one-year field measurement campaign within two regions; (2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and (3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provide an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis. (orig.)

  12. Perceived Organisational Target Selling, Self- Efficacy, Sexual ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Open Access DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT ... Data were gathered using a self report questionnaire consisting of scales measuring variables in the study. Self efficacy, job insecurity, sexual harassment and target selling significantly jointly ...

  13. Electronic Tickets, Smart Cards, and Online Prepayments: When and How to Advance Sell

    OpenAIRE

    Jinhong Xie; Steven M. Shugan

    2001-01-01

    Advance selling occurs when sellers allow buyers to purchase at a time preceding consumption (Shugan and Xie 2000). Electronic tickets, smart cards, online prepayments, and other technological advances make advance selling possible for many, if not all, service providers. These technologies lower the cost of making complex transactions at a greater distance from the seller's site. They also give sellers more control over advance selling by decreasing arbitrage. As technology enhances the capa...

  14. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  15. Realistic Affective Forecasting: The Role of Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerger, Michael; Chapman, Ben; Duberstein, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Affective forecasting often drives decision making. Although affective forecasting research has often focused on identifying sources of error at the event level, the present investigation draws upon the ‘realistic paradigm’ in seeking to identify factors that similarly influence predicted and actual emotions, explaining their concordance across individuals. We hypothesized that the personality traits neuroticism and extraversion would account for variation in both predicted and actual emotional reactions to a wide array of stimuli and events (football games, an election, Valentine’s Day, birthdays, happy/sad film clips, and an intrusive interview). As hypothesized, individuals who were more introverted and neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more unpleasant emotional reactions, and those who were more extraverted and less neurotic anticipated, correctly, that they would experience relatively more pleasant emotional reactions. Personality explained 30% of the concordance between predicted and actual emotional reactions. Findings suggest three purported personality processes implicated in affective forecasting, highlight the importance of individual-differences research in this domain, and call for more research on realistic affective forecasts. PMID:26212463

  16. Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. → The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. → PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. → One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. → The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

  17. Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shafie-khah, M., E-mail: miadreza@gmail.co [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Moghaddam, M. Parsa, E-mail: parsa@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., E-mail: aleslam@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    Research highlights: {yields} A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. {yields} The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. {yields} PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. {yields} One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. {yields} The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

  18. Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

    2010-12-01

    Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover

  19. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  20. Research on forecast technology of mine gas emission based on fuzzy data mining (FDM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chang-kai; Wang Yao-cai; Wang Jun-wei [CUMT, Xuzhou (China). School of Information and Electrical Engineering

    2004-07-01

    The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advantages of data warehouse and data mining technology for processing large quantity of redundancy data, the method and its application of forecasting mine gas emission quantity based on FDM were studied. The constructing fuzzy resembling relation and clustering analysis were proposed, which the potential relationship inside the gas emission data may be found. The mode finds model and forecast model were presented, and the detailed approach to realize this forecast was also proposed, which have been applied to forecast the gas emission quantity efficiently.

  1. Modeling switching behaviour of direct selling customers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Msweli-Mbanga

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available The direct selling industry suffers a high turnover rate of salespeople, resulting in high costs of training new salespeople. Further costs are incurred when broken relationships with customers cause them to switch from one product supplier to another. This study identifies twelve factors that drive the switching behaviour of direct sales customers and examines the extent to which these factors influence switching. Exploratory factor analysis was used to assess the validity of these factors. The factors were represented in a model that posits that an interpersonal relationship between a direct sales person and a customer moderates the relationship between switching behaviour and loyalty. Structural equation modeling was used to test the proposed model. The author then discusses the empirical findings and their managerial implications, providing further avenues for research.

  2. The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, David; Rasch, William; Kozlowski, Daniel; Burks, Jason; Zavodsky, Bradley; Bernardet, Ligia; Jankov, Isidora; Albers, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near-realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9-km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF-ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band-width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6-hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6-hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the

  3. Development and validation of a regional coupled forecasting system for S2S forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, R.; Subramanian, A. C.; Hoteit, I.; Miller, A. J.; Ralph, M.; Cornuelle, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate and efficient forecasting of oceanic and atmospheric circulation is essential for a wide variety of high-impact societal needs, including: weather extremes; environmental protection and coastal management; management of fisheries, marine conservation; water resources; and renewable energy. Effective forecasting relies on high model fidelity and accurate initialization of the models with observed state of the ocean-atmosphere-land coupled system. A regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the MITGCM ocean model coupled using the ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) coupling framework is developed to resolve mesoscale air-sea feedbacks. The regional coupled model allows oceanic mixed layer heat and momentum to interact with the atmospheric boundary layer dynamics at the mesoscale and submesoscale spatiotemporal regimes, thus leading to feedbacks which are otherwise not resolved in coarse resolution global coupled forecasting systems or regional uncoupled forecasting systems. The model is tested in two scenarios in the mesoscale eddy rich Red Sea and Western Indian Ocean region as well as mesoscale eddies and fronts of the California Current System. Recent studies show evidence for air-sea interactions involving the oceanic mesoscale in these two regions which can enhance predictability on sub seasonal timescale. We will present results from this newly developed regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model for forecasts over the Red Sea region as well as the California Current region. The forecasts will be validated against insitu observations in the region as well as reanalysis fields.

  4. Affective forecasting and self-rated symptoms of depression, anxiety, and hypomania: evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W; Chapman, Benjamin P; Duberstein, Paul R

    2012-01-01

    Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n=325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally evocative relational event, Valentine's Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias-the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalisations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long-assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information-processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology.

  5. Affective Forecasting and Self-Rated Symptoms of Depression, Anxiety, and Hypomania: Evidence for a Dysphoric Forecasting Bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerger, Michael; Quirk, Stuart W.; Chapman, Benjamin P.; Duberstein, Paul R.

    2011-01-01

    Emerging research has examined individual differences in affective forecasting; however, we are aware of no published study to date linking psychopathology symptoms to affective forecasting problems. Pitting cognitive theory against depressive realism theory, we examined whether dysphoria was associated with negatively biased affective forecasts or greater accuracy. Participants (n = 325) supplied predicted and actual emotional reactions for three days surrounding an emotionally-evocative relational event, Valentine’s Day. Predictions were made a month prior to the holiday. Consistent with cognitive theory, we found evidence for a dysphoric forecasting bias – the tendency of individuals in dysphoric states to overpredict negative emotional reactions to future events. The dysphoric forecasting bias was robust across ratings of positive and negative affect, forecasts for pleasant and unpleasant scenarios, continuous and categorical operationalizations of dysphoria, and three time points of observation. Similar biases were not observed in analyses examining the independent effects of anxiety and hypomania. Findings provide empirical evidence for the long assumed influence of depressive symptoms on future expectations. The present investigation has implications for affective forecasting studies examining information processing constructs, decision making, and broader domains of psychopathology. PMID:22397734

  6. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  7. THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ACTIVITY-BASED COSTING METHOD IN DETERMINING SELLING PRICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhtarudin Muhtarudin

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstrak. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui  perbedaan perhitungan antara Harga Pokok Produksi  Sepatu  menggunakan metode tradisional  dengan  metode Activity-Based Costing.  Penelitian dilakukan pada 5 industri Sepatu di Sentra Industri Sepatu Cibaduyut Kota Bandung dengan metode pengumpulan data menggunakan teknik observasi, wawancara, dan dokumentasi. Jumlah populasi sebanyak 76 industri dan metode penentuan sampel menggunakan teknik purposive sampling. Teknik analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis beda dua rata-rata.  Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan yang signifikan antara Harga Pokok Produkasi sepatu metode tradisional dengan  Activity-Based Costing.  Setelah menerapkan metode penentuan biaya dengan metode tersebut, Harga Pokok Produkasi adanya perbedaan  yang cukup signifikan sehingga penentuan harga jual yang salah. Karena menetapkan harga jual dengan melakukan mark-up  untuk menutupi biaya produksi.  Penentuan harga jual dengan cara ini menyebabkan harga jual yang terlalu rendah, sehingga tidak dapat mengoptimalkan laba Kata Kunci.  Activity-Based Costing; Harga Pokok Produksi; Harga Jual.   Abstract. This study aims to find out the difference between the calculation of shoe production cost using the traditional method as compared to that using the Activity-Based Costing method. The research was conducted on five shoe industries in the Shoes Industry Center in Cibaduyut Bandung, using such data collecting method as observation, interview, and documentation studies. The population comprises of 76 industries, and the method used for determining the sample is purposive sampling technique. The analytical technique used in this study is the analysis of two different averages. The results of this study indicate that there is a significant difference between the shoe production cost calculated using the traditional method and that calculated using the Activity

  8. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  9. Mesoscale Modeling, Forecasting and Remote Sensing Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    remote sensing , cyclonic scale diagnostic studies and mesoscale numerical modeling and forecasting are summarized. Mechanisms involved in the release of potential instability are discussed and simulated quantitatively, giving particular attention to the convective formulation. The basic mesoscale model is documented including the equations, boundary condition, finite differences and initialization through an idealized frontal zone. Results of tests including a three dimensional test with real data, tests of convective/mesoscale interaction and tests with a detailed

  10. Understanding the Sales Process by Selling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bussière, Dave

    2017-01-01

    Experiential projects bring students closer to real-world situations. This is valuable in sales education because the complexities of the sales process are difficult to learn from a textbook. A student project was developed that involved the selling of advertising space in a one-time newspaper insert. The project included a substantial minimum…

  11. Top-selling childbirth advice books: a discourse analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Holly Powell; Nardini, Katrina; McLeod-Waldo, Rebecca; Ennis, Linda

    2009-12-01

    Recent evidence suggests that one-third of women receive information about pregnancy and childbirth through books. Messages about what characteristics are normal (or expected) in childbirth are disseminated in a variety of ways, including popular childbirth education books, but little study of them has been conducted. The purpose of this investigation is to address that gap by examining the discussions about childbirth in the 10 top-selling books in the United States. Discourse analysis (relating to the public, personal, and political discussions about a specific phenomenon) was used to study 10 best-selling United States childbirth advice books marketed to childbearing women during the first week of November 2007. Book styles ranged from clinical descriptions of pregnancy and birth primarily offering reassurance, self-help information, and danger signs to more folksy and humorous commentaries. Presentation of scientific evidence to support recommendations was uneven and at times inaccurate. Five focal areas of discourse included body image, labor and birth, pain, power and control, and life preparation for motherhood. Top-selling books shine an interesting light on the current state of United States maternity practices. Women and health professionals should assess them carefully and engage with each other about their recommendations and implications for childbirth.

  12. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  13. Scour Forecasting for Offshore Wind Parks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvig, Peres Akrawi

    In an effort to minimize the costs of offshore wind parks, the present research deals with optimizing a certain aspect of the support structure, namely the approach to scour. Scour is the phenomenon of seabed changes in the vicinity of the support structure that arises when the support structure......, scour forecasts facilitate the comparison between a scour design based on either deployment of scour-protection or enhanced structural design. The broad goal is to develop a method that produces accurate scour forecasts for offshore wind parks. The present research investigates more specifically which...

  14. Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afilal, Mohamed; Yalaoui, Farouk; Dugardin, Frédéric; Amodeo, Lionel; Laplanche, David; Blua, Philippe

    2016-07-01

    Emergency department (ED) have become the patient's main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.

  15. THE STUDY OF THE FORECASTING PROCESS INFRASTRUCTURAL SUPPORT BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Sibirskaia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Summary. When forecasting the necessary infrastructural support entrepreneurship predict rational distribution of the potential and expected results based on capacity development component of infrastructural maintenance, efficient use of resources, expertise and development of regional economies, the rationalization of administrative decisions, etc. According to the authors, the process of predicting business infrastructure software includes the following steps: analysis of the existing infrastructure support business to the top of the forecast period, the structure of resources, identifying disparities, their causes, identifying positive trends in the analysis and the results of research; research component of infrastructural support entrepreneurship, assesses complex system of social relations, institutions, structures and objects made findings and conclusions of the study; identification of areas of strategic change and the possibility of eliminating weaknesses and imbalances, identifying prospects for the development of entrepreneurship; identifying a set of factors and conditions affecting each component of infrastructure software, calculated the degree of influence of each of them and the total effect of all factors; adjustment indicators infrastructure forecasts. Research of views of category says a method of strategic planning and forecasting that methods of strategic planning are considered separately from forecasting methods. In a combination methods of strategic planning and forecasting, in relation to infrastructure ensuring business activity aren't given in literature. Nevertheless, authors consider that this category should be defined for the characteristic of the intrinsic and substantial nature of strategic planning and forecasting of infrastructure ensuring business activity.processing.

  16. Integration of Behind-the-Meter PV Fleet Forecasts into Utility Grid System Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoff, Thomas Hoff [Clean Power Research, L.L.C., Napa, CA (United States); Kankiewicz, Adam [Clean Power Research, L.L.C., Napa, CA (United States)

    2016-02-26

    Four major research objectives were completed over the course of this study. Three of the objectives were to evaluate three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models. The fourth objective was to improve the California Independent System Operator’s (ISO) load forecasts by integrating behind-the-meter (BTM) PV forecasts. The three, new, state-of-the-art solar irradiance forecasting models included: the infrared (IR) satellite-based cloud motion vector (CMV) model; the WRF-SolarCA model and variants; and the Optimized Deep Machine Learning (ODML)-training model. The first two forecasting models targeted known weaknesses in current operational solar forecasts. They were benchmarked against existing operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts, visible satellite CMV forecasts, and measured PV plant power production. IR CMV, WRF-SolarCA, and ODML-training forecasting models all improved the forecast to a significant degree. Improvements varied depending on time of day, cloudiness index, and geographic location. The fourth objective was to demonstrate that the California ISO’s load forecasts could be improved by integrating BTM PV forecasts. This objective represented the project’s most exciting and applicable gains. Operational BTM forecasts consisting of 200,000+ individual rooftop PV forecasts were delivered into the California ISO’s real-time automated load forecasting (ALFS) environment. They were then evaluated side-by-side with operational load forecasts with no BTM-treatment. Overall, ALFS-BTM day-ahead (DA) forecasts performed better than baseline ALFS forecasts when compared to actual load data. Specifically, ALFS-BTM DA forecasts were observed to have the largest reduction of error during the afternoon on cloudy days. Shorter term 30 minute-ahead ALFS-BTM forecasts were shown to have less error under all sky conditions, especially during the morning time periods when traditional load forecasts often experience their largest

  17. 3-D visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-02-01

    We present the application of interactive 3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and forecast wind field resolution. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (three to seven days before take-off).

  18. Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-12-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don't need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications.

  19. Use and Communication of Probabilistic Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts are becoming more and more available. How should they be used and communicated? What are the obstacles to their use in practice? I review experience with five problems where probabilistic forecasting played an important role. This leads me to identify five types of potential users: Low Stakes Users, who don’t need probabilistic forecasts; General Assessors, who need an overall idea of the uncertainty in the forecast; Change Assessors, who need to know if a change is out of line with expectatations; Risk Avoiders, who wish to limit the risk of an adverse outcome; and Decision Theorists, who quantify their loss function and perform the decision-theoretic calculations. This suggests that it is important to interact with users and to consider their goals. The cognitive research tells us that calibration is important for trust in probability forecasts, and that it is important to match the verbal expression with the task. The cognitive load should be minimized, reducing the probabilistic forecast to a single percentile if appropriate. Probabilities of adverse events and percentiles of the predictive distribution of quantities of interest seem often to be the best way to summarize probabilistic forecasts. Formal decision theory has an important role, but in a limited range of applications. PMID:28446941

  20. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-07-01

    We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX - North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off).

  1. An investigation of forecast horizon and observation fit’s influence on an econometric rate forecast model in the liner shipping industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter; Jiang, Liping; Rytter, Niels Gorm Malý

    2014-01-01

    This paper evaluates the influence of forecast horizon and observation fit on the robustness and performance of a specific freight rate forecast model used in the liner shipping industry. In the first stage of the research, a forecast model used to predict container freight rate development...... of the forecast horizon and observation fit and their interactions on the forecast model's performance. The results underline the complicated nature of creating a suitable forecast model by balancing business needs, a desire to fit a good model and achieve high accuracy. There is strong empirical evidence from...... this study; that a robust model is preferable, that overfitting is a true danger, and that a balance must be achieved between forecast horizon and the number of observations used to fit the model. In addition, methodological guidance has also been provided on how to test, design, and choose the superior...

  2. Alternative mechanisms guiding salespersons’ ambidextrous product selling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Borgh, M.; de Jong, A.; Nijssen, E.J.

    2017-01-01

    Ambidextrous product-selling strategies, in which companies’ salespeople concurrently pursue the sale of existing and new products, are hard to implement. Previous studies have addressed this issue for relatively simple consumer settings with the manager in close proximity to the salespersons and

  3. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  4. Economic forces push down selling prices of U.S. refineries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1996-01-01

    Recent data on US refinery sales reveal that selling prices have continued to decline in the 1990s. Reasons for this decrease include increased plant investments to meet regulatory requirements, excess refining capacity, increased imports of refined products, and reduced margins. While these expenditures enable a refinery to continue operating, they do not make the refinery more profitable or valuable. Other factors contributing to reduced selling prices of US refineries are: declining local crude production; unstable crude costs; increased energy conservation; growing competition from alternative fuels

  5. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  6. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF FORECASTING MODELS FOR TREND AND SEASONAL TIME SERIES DOES COMPLEX MODEL ALWAYS YIELD BETTER FORECAST THAN SIMPLE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhartono Suhartono

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Many business and economic time series are non-stationary time series that contain trend and seasonal variations. Seasonality is a periodic and recurrent pattern caused by factors such as weather, holidays, or repeating promotions. A stochastic trend is often accompanied with the seasonal variations and can have a significant impact on various forecasting methods. In this paper, we will investigate and compare some forecasting methods for modeling time series with both trend and seasonal patterns. These methods are Winter's, Decomposition, Time Series Regression, ARIMA and Neural Networks models. In this empirical research, we study on the effectiveness of the forecasting performance, particularly to answer whether a complex method always give a better forecast than a simpler method. We use a real data, that is airline passenger data. The result shows that the more complex model does not always yield a better result than a simpler one. Additionally, we also find the possibility to do further research especially the use of hybrid model by combining some forecasting method to get better forecast, for example combination between decomposition (as data preprocessing and neural network model.

  7. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  8. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  9. 9 CFR 201.67 - Packers not to own or finance selling agencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 9 Animals and Animal Products 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Packers not to own or finance selling... STOCKYARDS ACT Trade Practices § 201.67 Packers not to own or finance selling agencies. No packer subject to the Act shall have an ownership interest in, finance, or participate in the management or operation of...

  10. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  11. Green energy in Europe: selling green energy with green certificates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouillet, L.

    2002-01-01

    Sales of green power products are booming in Europe: 50,000 customers in the United Kingdom, 775,000 in the Netherlands and 300,000 in Germany. Laws of physics are however formal: the way in which electricity flows within the grid does not allow suppliers to assure customers that they are directly receiving electricity produced exclusively from renewable energy sources. What are marketers selling their customers then? Laetitia Ouillet, Greenprices, takes a closer look and focuses on the potential of selling green energy in the forms of renewable energy certificates. (Author)

  12. Does Wal-Mart Sell Inferior Goods?

    OpenAIRE

    Emek Basker

    2008-01-01

    I estimate the aggregate income elasticity of Wal-Mart's and Target's revenues using quarterly data for 1997-2006. I find that Wal-Mart's revenues increase during bad times, whereas Target's revenues decrease, consistent with Wal-Mart selling "inferior goods" in the technical sense of the term. An upper bound on the aggregate income elasticity of demand for Wal-Mart's wares is -0.5.

  13. Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Lehner

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

  14. Can Incentives Mitigate Student Overconfidence at Grade Forecasts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, Dennis; Mortenson, Kristian G.; Lester, Marisa

    2018-01-01

    Research shows that college students exhibit bias in their forecasts of exam performance. Most students are overconfident in their forecasts, academically weaker students are the most overconfident, and top-performing students are underconfident. The literature identifies negative repercussions of these biases, including inadequate preparation for…

  15. Limited Area Forecasting and Statistical Modelling for Wind Energy Scheduling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg

    forecast accuracy for operational wind power scheduling. Numerical weather prediction history and scales of atmospheric motion are summarised, followed by a literature review of limited area wind speed forecasting. Hereafter, the original contribution to research on the topic is outlined. The quality...... control of wind farm data used as forecast reference is described in detail, and a preliminary limited area forecasting study illustrates the aggravation of issues related to numerical orography representation and accurate reference coordinates at ne weather model resolutions. For the o shore and coastal...... sites studied limited area forecasting is found to deteriorate wind speed prediction accuracy, while inland results exhibit a steady forecast performance increase with weather model resolution. Temporal smoothing of wind speed forecasts is shown to improve wind power forecast performance by up to almost...

  16. Emotional Intelligence: A Theoretical Framework for Individual Differences in Affective Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoerger, Michael; Chapman, Benjamin P.; Epstein, Ronald M.; Duberstein, Paul R.

    2011-01-01

    Only recently have researchers begun to examine individual differences in affective forecasting. The present investigation was designed to make a theoretical contribution to this emerging literature by examining the role of emotional intelligence in affective forecasting. Emotional intelligence was hypothesized to be associated with affective forecasting accuracy, memory for emotional reactions, and subsequent improvement on an affective forecasting task involving emotionally-evocative pictures. Results from two studies (N = 511) supported our hypotheses. Emotional intelligence was associated with accuracy in predicting, encoding, and consolidating emotional reactions. Furthermore, emotional intelligence was associated with greater improvement on a second affective forecasting task, with the relationship explained by basic memory processes. Implications for future research on basic and applied decision making are discussed. PMID:22251053

  17. Sewage sludge and how to sell it

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knapp, I M

    1977-10-01

    Largo, Florida dries its sludge and sells it as fertilizer for $80 to $169/T. The sludge processing plant capable of turning common sludge into a dry, pelletized soil conditioner was only slightly more expensive than the previously proposed concrete drying beds which would have required disposal of the dried residue. The city's experience in setting up the plant and marketing the finished product is discussed. The true advantage of selling heat-dried sludge is that residents of the surrounding area, knowing the value of the product to their lawns and shrubs, will provide the transportation for the product and the physical labor to spread it over an area wider than most municipalities could afford to own or operate. The current production cost of $140/T is high, but the addition of a sludge prethickener-conditioner process and expected future economies of scale as the volume of sludge treated increases should lower per ton costs.

  18. Modified TAROT for cross-selling personal financial products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tee, Ya-Mei; LEE, Lai-Soon; LEE, Chew-Ging; SEOW, Hsin-Vonn

    2014-09-01

    The Top Application characteristics Remainder Offer characteristics Tree (TAROT) was first introduced in 2007. This is a modified Classification and Regression Trees (CART) used to help decide which question(s) to ask potential applicants to customise an offer of a personal financial product so that it would have a high probability of take up. In this piece of work the authors are presenting, they have further modified the TAROT to cross TAROT, using its properties and modeling steps to deal with the issue of cross-selling. Since the bank already has ready customers, it would be ideal to cross-sell the financial products seeing that one can ask one (or more) further question(s) based on the initial offer to identify and customise another financial product to offer.

  19. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  20. Sales Forecasting for Fashion Retailing Service Industry: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Na Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting is crucial for many retail operations. It is especially critical for the fashion retailing service industry in which product demand is very volatile and product’s life cycle is short. This paper conducts a comprehensive literature review and selects a set of papers in the literature on fashion retail sales forecasting. The advantages and the drawbacks of different kinds of analytical methods for fashion retail sales forecasting are examined. The evolution of the respective forecasting methods over the past 15 years is revealed. Issues related to real-world applications of the fashion retail sales forecasting models and important future research directions are discussed.

  1. Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semmens, K. A.; Montz, B.; Carr, R. H.; Maxfield, K.; Ahnert, P.; Shedd, R.; Elliott, J.

    2017-12-01

    When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protect life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. In 2016 and 2017, building on previous research about the use of uncertainty forecast products, and with funding from NOAA's CSTAR program, East Carolina University and Nurture Nature Center (a non-profit organization with a focus on flooding issues, based in Easton, PA) conducted a research project to understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities. These audiences include community residents, emergency managers and water resource managers. The research team held focus groups in Jefferson County, WV and Frederick County, MD, to test a new suite of products from the National Weather Service's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS). HEFS is an ensemble system that provides short and long-range forecasts, ranging from 6 hours to 1 year, showing uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. The goal of the study was to assess the utility of the HEFS products, identify the barriers to proper understanding of the products, and suggest modifications to product design that could improve the understandability and accessibility for residential, emergency managers, and water resource managers. The research team worked with the Sterling, VA Weather Forecast Office and the Middle Atlantic River Forecast center to develop a weather scenario as the basis of the focus group discussions, which also included pre and post session surveys. This presentation shares the findings from those focus group discussions and surveys, including recommendations for revisions to

  2. EOQ model for perishable products with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

    2017-11-01

    In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model for perishable products like vegetables, fruits, milk, flowers, meat, etc.,with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price. Here we consider the demand is depending on selling price and deterioration rate is constant. Here we developed mathematical model to determine optimal discounton the unit selling price to maximize total profit. Numerical examples are given for illustrated.

  3. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  4. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  5. Research and Application of Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on an Optimal Feature Selection System—A Case Study on Electrical Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunxuan Dong

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The process of modernizing smart grid prominently increases the complexity and uncertainty in scheduling and operation of power systems, and, in order to develop a more reliable, flexible, efficient and resilient grid, electrical load forecasting is not only an important key but is still a difficult and challenging task as well. In this paper, a short-term electrical load forecasting model, with a unit for feature learning named Pyramid System and recurrent neural networks, has been developed and it can effectively promote the stability and security of the power grid. Nine types of methods for feature learning are compared in this work to select the best one for learning target, and two criteria have been employed to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction intervals. Furthermore, an electrical load forecasting method based on recurrent neural networks has been formed to achieve the relational diagram of historical data, and, to be specific, the proposed techniques are applied to electrical load forecasting using the data collected from New South Wales, Australia. The simulation results show that the proposed hybrid models can not only satisfactorily approximate the actual value but they are also able to be effective tools in the planning of smart grids.

  6. Improving Seasonal Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Soybean and Corn in Iowa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Togliatti, K.; Archontoulis, S.; Dietzel, R.; VanLoocke, A.

    2016-12-01

    Accurately forecasting crop yield in advance of harvest could greatly benefit farmers, however few evaluations have been conducted to determine the effectiveness of forecasting methods. We tested one such method that used a combination of short-term weather forecasting from the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to predict in season weather variables, such as, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and radiation at 4 different forecast lengths (2 weeks, 1 week, 3 days, and 0 days). This forecasted weather data along with the current and historic (previous 35 years) data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet was combined to drive Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) simulations to forecast soybean and corn yields in 2015 and 2016. The goal of this study is to find the forecast length that reduces the variability of simulated yield predictions while also increasing the accuracy of those predictions. APSIM simulations of crop variables were evaluated against bi-weekly field measurements of phenology, biomass, and leaf area index from early and late planted soybean plots located at the Agricultural Engineering and Agronomy Research Farm in central Iowa as well as the Northwest Research Farm in northwestern Iowa. WRF model predictions were evaluated against observed weather data collected at the experimental fields. Maximum temperature was the most accurately predicted variable, followed by minimum temperature and radiation, and precipitation was least accurate according to RMSE values and the number of days that were forecasted within a 20% error of the observed weather. Our analysis indicated that for the majority of months in the growing season the 3 day forecast performed the best. The 1 week forecast came in second and the 2 week forecast was the least accurate for the majority of months. Preliminary results for yield indicate that the 2 week forecast is the least variable of the forecast lengths, however it also is the least accurate

  7. Men Selling Sex to Men in Sweden: Balancing Safety and Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuosmanen, Jari; de Cabo, Annelie

    2018-04-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine how men who sell sex to men perceive the risks in this activity and what experiences they have of actual denigration, threats, and violence in their relations with customers. We also discuss the self-defense strategies they have used to protect themselves. The study is based on an Internet survey on Swedish websites. Statistical analyses have been carried out, and in interpreting the results, Finkelhor and Asdigian's revised routine activities theory has been used. The results show that the vulnerability of sellers of sex is greatest during the time when the sexual act is being performed, and that this is primarily linked to the customer's antagonism and seeking gratification by overstepping agreed boundaries, particularly with regard to sexual services including BDSM. Their vulnerability was also connected to the seller's diminished capacity for self-protection due to personal and external pressures. A smaller proportion of the men described risk prevention activities. These involved refusing a customer after an initial contact, protecting themselves from infection, being on their guard during the whole process, selecting the place, and deciding not to carry out certain sexual acts. An important implication concerns the occupational health and safety that men who sell sex to men can develop for themselves, while remaining within the law. International studies have demonstrated that selling sex in collective, indoor forms provides the greatest security. For decades, Swedish prostitution policy has had the ambition of reducing prostitution through targeting those who purchase sex, and those who promote prostitution in criminal legislation. This effectively prevents more systematic and collective attempts to create safer conditions for selling sex. In conclusion, it can be stated that while it is legal to sell sex in Sweden, this is done at the seller's own risk.

  8. Biogas conference on direct selling and financing in France and in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furois, Timothee; Vollmer, Carla; Schlienger, Marc; Delagrandanne, Julien; Schwill, Jochen; Trommler, Marcus; Barchmann, Tino; Dotzauer, Martin; Durot, Alexandre; Ricordeau, Damien; Schuenemann-Plag, Peter; Wehner, Gustav; Wagner, Robert; Mestrel, Marc

    2016-01-01

    The French-German office for Renewable energies (OFAEnR) organised a conference on the regulatory context, direct selling and financing of methanation plants in France and in Germany. In the framework of this French-German exchange of experience, about 60 participants debated the following topics: direct selling impact on biogas industry, key-steps of methanation development in Germany, experience feedback of direct electricity selling and optimization of the production, banks experience feedback in methanation financing. This document brings together the available presentations (slides) made during this event: 1 - French support schemes for biogas (Timothee Furois); 2 - Development of the framework for biogas plants within the Renewable energy Sources Act from 2000 until 2015 (Carla Vollmer); 3 - Direct selling: challenges and opportunities (Marc Schlienger); 4 - The rules of the aggregator and electricity market (Julien Delagrandanne); 5 - Feed in Premium (FiP) with Biogas Power Plants, experiences in Germany (Jochen Schwill); 6 - Flexibilisation of biogas production - Impulses from EEG -legislation (Marcus Trommler); 7 - Bank approach in the direct selling approach (Alexandre Durot); 8 - Biogas Financing - Correlation between Return and Project Financing (Damien Ricordeau); 9 - Comparative economic analysis of various types of biogas plant Profitability of small and medium biogas plants on the basis of slurry and maize silage in Germany (Peter Schuenemann-Plag); 10 - experience feedback on important financing leviers (Gustav Wehner); 11 - Analysis of the different ways of methanation facilities financing (Robert Wagner); 12- The development of biogas project without recourse to purchase prices in France and Germany (Marc Mestrel)

  9. One-tiered vs. two-tiered forecasting of South African seasonal rainfall

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available -tiered Forecasting of South African Seasonal Rainfall Willem A. Landman1, Dave DeWitt2 and Daleen L?tter3 1: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research; WALandman@csir.co.za 2: International Research Institute for Climate and Society; Daved... modelled as fully interacting is called a fully coupled model system. Forecast performance by such systems predicting seasonal rainfall totals over South Africa is compared with forecasts produced by a computationally less demanding two-tiered system...

  10. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  11. The Adaptive Consequences of Pride in Personal Selling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.J.M.I. Verbeke (Willem); F.D. Belschak (Frank); R.P. Bagozzi (Richard)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractStudy 1 investigates the beneficial effects of experiencing pride. Pride was found to have two different effects. First, it increases salespersons' performance-related motivations. Specifically, it promotes adaptive selling strategies, greater effort, and self-efficacy. Secondly, it

  12. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rautenhaus

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off.

  13. The development rainfall forecasting using kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulfi, Mohammad; Hasan, Moh.; Dwidja Purnomo, Kosala

    2018-04-01

    Rainfall forecasting is very interesting for agricultural planing. Rainfall information is useful to make decisions about the plan planting certain commodities. In this studies, the rainfall forecasting by ARIMA and Kalman Filter method. Kalman Filter method is used to declare a time series model of which is shown in the form of linear state space to determine the future forecast. This method used a recursive solution to minimize error. The rainfall data in this research clustered by K-means clustering. Implementation of Kalman Filter method is for modelling and forecasting rainfall in each cluster. We used ARIMA (p,d,q) to construct a state space for KalmanFilter model. So, we have four group of the data and one model in each group. In conclusions, Kalman Filter method is better than ARIMA model for rainfall forecasting in each group. It can be showed from error of Kalman Filter method that smaller than error of ARIMA model.

  14. Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

  15. Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

    2009-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

  16. An Optimization of Inventory Demand Forecasting in University Healthcare Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bon, A. T.; Ng, T. K.

    2017-01-01

    Healthcare industry becomes an important field for human beings nowadays as it concerns about one’s health. With that, forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. Hence, a case study was conducted in University Health Centre to collect historical demand data of Panadol 650mg for 68 months from January 2009 until August 2014. The aim of the research is to optimize the overall inventory demand through forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting model was used in the case study to forecast future data as a function of past data. Furthermore, the data pattern needs to be identified first before applying the forecasting techniques. Trend is the data pattern and then ten forecasting techniques are applied using Risk Simulator Software. Lastly, the best forecasting techniques will be find out with the least forecasting error. Among the ten forecasting techniques include single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, regression, Holt-Winter’s additive, Seasonal additive, Holt-Winter’s multiplicative, seasonal multiplicative and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). According to the forecasting accuracy measurement, the best forecasting technique is regression analysis.

  17. Salespeople's Renqing Orientation, Self-esteem, and Selling Behaviors: An Empirical Study in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Ming-Hong; Chi, Shu-Cheng Steve; Hu, Hsiu-Hua

    2009-06-01

    PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to investigate how salespeople's renqing orientation and self-esteem jointly affect their selling behavior. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: Data were obtained from a survey of salespeople from 17 pharmaceutical and consumer-goods companies in Taiwan (n = 216). FINDINGS: Salespeople's renqing orientation (i.e., their propensity to adhere to the accepted norm of reciprocity) compensates the negative effect of self-esteem on their selling behaviors, such as adaptive selling and hard work. IMPLICATIONS: Our study results underscore the critical role of the character trait of renqing orientation in a culture emphasizing a norm of reciprocity. Therefore, it would be useful to consider a strategy of recruiting salespeople with either a high self-esteem or a combination of high renqing orientation and low self-esteem. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The existing literature of industrial/organizational psychology and marketing primarily relies on constructs that are derived from Western cultural contexts. However, the present paper extended these literatures by investigating the possible joint effects of self-esteem with a trait originated from the Chinese culture on salespeople's selling behaviors.

  18. A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Huan Kuo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important research topics in smart grid technology is load forecasting, because accuracy of load forecasting highly influences reliability of the smart grid systems. In the past, load forecasting was obtained by traditional analysis techniques such as time series analysis and linear regression. Since the load forecast focuses on aggregated electricity consumption patterns, researchers have recently integrated deep learning approaches with machine learning techniques. In this study, an accurate deep neural network algorithm for short-term load forecasting (STLF is introduced. The forecasting performance of proposed algorithm is compared with performances of five artificial intelligence algorithms that are commonly used in load forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Square Error (CV-RMSE are used as accuracy evaluation indexes. The experiment results show that MAPE and CV-RMSE of proposed algorithm are 9.77% and 11.66%, respectively, displaying very high forecasting accuracy.

  19. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  20. Insaiderlus Eesti finantssektoris ja selle tõkestamine / Mart Sõrg

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Sõrg, Mart, 1943-

    2003-01-01

    Insaiderluse all mõistetakse avalikustamata siseteabe ärakasutamist väärtpaberitega kauplemisel. Eestis seostatakse insaiderluse mõistega eelkõige pangandus- ja muud finantssektorit ja selle töötajaid

  1. Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Feng-Jenq

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

  2. Wind Energy Forecasting: A Collaboration of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and Xcel Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parks, K.; Wan, Y. H.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.

    2011-10-01

    . The downside is costs are higher. In organized electricity markets, units that are committed for reliability reasons are paid their offer price even when prevailing market prices are lower. Often, these uplift charges are allocated to market participants that caused the inefficient dispatch in the first place. Thus, wind energy facilities are burdened with their share of costs proportional to their forecast errors. For Xcel Energy, wind energy uncertainty costs manifest depending on specific market structures. In the Public Service of Colorado (PSCo), inefficient commitment and dispatch caused by wind uncertainty increases fuel costs. Wind resources participating in the Midwest Independent System Operator (MISO) footprint make substantial payments in the real-time markets to true-up their day-ahead positions and are additionally burdened with deviation charges called a Revenue Sufficiency Guarantee (RSG) to cover out of market costs associated with operations. Southwest Public Service (SPS) wind plants cause both commitment inefficiencies and are charged Southwest Power Pool (SPP) imbalance payments due to wind uncertainty and variability. Wind energy forecasting helps mitigate these costs. Wind integration studies for the PSCo and Northern States Power (NSP) operating companies have projected increasing costs as more wind is installed on the system due to forecast error. It follows that reducing forecast error would reduce these costs. This is echoed by large scale studies in neighboring regions and states that have recommended adoption of state-of-the-art wind forecasting tools in day-ahead and real-time planning and operations. Further, Xcel Energy concluded reduction of the normalized mean absolute error by one percent would have reduced costs in 2008 by over $1 million annually in PSCo alone. The value of reducing forecast error prompted Xcel Energy to make substantial investments in wind energy forecasting research and development.

  3. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  4. Advocating zoster vaccination in a community pharmacy through use of personal selling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, Amy R; Liu, Yifei; Kuehl, Peggy G

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate whether the use of personal selling, in combination with other promotional techniques, could improve patient commitment to receive the targeted intervention of herpes zoster vaccine (Zostavax-Merck). Two locally owned grocery store chain pharmacies in the Kansas City, MO, metropolitan area (Price Chopper Pharmacy 11 [PC11] and Price Chopper Pharmacy 36 [PC36]). Price Chopper Pharmacy employs pharmacists who are able to administer vaccinations to patients within the dispensing workflow. Passive signage promoting zoster vaccine was placed at both PC11 and PC36. Personal selling by pharmacy staff to targeted patients was implemented at PC36, where patients were encouraged to receive zoster vaccine at prescription pick up and/or by personalized letter. Primary measures included comparison of the number committing to receive zoster vaccine at either pharmacy, comparison of patient perceptions regarding each pharmacy's promotion of zoster vaccine, and pharmacy staff time spent identifying targeted patients and performing personal selling activities. 90 of 745 targeted patients (12.1%) at PC36 made commitments to receive zoster vaccine compared with 9 of 614 (1.5%) at PC11 (P < 0.001). The barrier of "Dr. hasn't told me I need it" was reduced for PC36 patients (P < 0.05). Patients receiving vaccination had a more favorable attitude toward receiving zoster vaccine than unvaccinated patients (P < 0.01). Among unvaccinated patients, those at PC36 had a more favorable attitude toward receiving zoster vaccine after interacting with a pharmacist (P < 0.05). Personal selling increased patient commitment to receiving a targeted intervention significantly. By using personal selling, pharmacists resolved barriers to immunization.

  5. Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaynes, A. N.; Baker, D. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Li, X.; Turner, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Taking Risks for the Future of Space Weather Forecasting, Research, and Operations The need for highly improved space weather modeling and monitoring is quickly becoming imperative as our society depends ever more on the sensitive technology that builds and connects our world. Instead of relying primarily on tried and true concepts, academic institutions and funding agencies alike should be focusing on truly new and innovative ways to solve this pressing problem. In this exciting time, where student-led groups can launch CubeSats for under a million dollars and companies like SpaceX are actively reducing the cost-cap of access to space, the space physics community should be pushing the boundaries of what is possible to enhance our understanding of the space environment. Taking great risks in instrumentation, mission concepts, operational development, collaborations, and scientific research is the best way to move our field forward to where it needs to be for the betterment of science and society.

  6. Forecasting Baltic Dirty Tanker Index by Applying Wavelet Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fan, Shuangrui; JI, TINGYUN; Bergqvist, Rickard

    2013-01-01

    modeling techniques used in freight rate forecasting. At the same time research in shipping index forecasting e.g. BDTI applying artificial intelligent techniques is scarce. This analyses the possibilities to forecast the BDTI by applying Wavelet Neural Networks (WNN). Firstly, the characteristics...... of traditional and artificial intelligent forecasting techniques are discussed and rationales for choosing WNN are explained. Secondly, the components and features of BDTI will be explicated. After that, the authors delve the determinants and influencing factors behind fluctuations of the BDTI in order to set...

  7. Using Science Data and Models for Space Weather Forecasting - Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesse, Michael; Pulkkinen, Antti; Zheng, Yihua; Maddox, Marlo; Berrios, David; Taktakishvili, Sandro; Kuznetsova, Masha; Chulaki, Anna; Lee, Hyesook; Mullinix, Rick; hide

    2012-01-01

    Space research, and, consequently, space weather forecasting are immature disciplines. Scientific knowledge is accumulated frequently, which changes our understanding or how solar eruptions occur, and of how they impact targets near or on the Earth, or targets throughout the heliosphere. Along with continuous progress in understanding, space research and forecasting models are advancing rapidly in capability, often providing substantially increases in space weather value over time scales of less than a year. Furthermore, the majority of space environment information available today is, particularly in the solar and heliospheric domains, derived from research missions. An optimal forecasting environment needs to be flexible enough to benefit from this rapid development, and flexible enough to adapt to evolving data sources, many of which may also stem from non-US entities. This presentation will analyze the experiences obtained by developing and operating both a forecasting service for NASA, and an experimental forecasting system for Geomagnetically Induced Currents.

  8. Selling the brand inside.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Colin

    2002-01-01

    When you think of marketing, chances are your mind goes right to your customers--how can you persuade more people to buy whatever it is you sell? But there's another "market" that's equally important: your employees. Author Colin Mitchell argues that executives by and large ignore this critical internal audience when developing and executing branding campaigns. As a result, employees end up undermining the expectations set by the company's advertising--either because they don't understand what the ads have promised or because they don't believe in the brand and feel disengaged or, worse, hostile toward the company. Mitchell offers three principles for executing internal branding campaigns--techniques executives can use to make sure employees understand, embrace, and "live" the brand vision companies are selling to the public. First, he says, companies need to market to employees at times when the company is experiencing a fundamental challenge or change, times when employees are seeking direction and are relatively receptive to new initiatives. Second, companies must link their internal and external marketing campaigns; employees should hear the same messages that are being sent to the market-place. And third, internal branding campaigns should bring the brand alive for employees, creating an emotional connection to the company that transcends any one experience. Internal campaigns should introduce and explain the brand messages in new and attention-grabbing ways and then reinforce those messages by weaving them into the fabric of the company. It is a fact of business, writes Mitchell, that if employees do not care about or understand their company's brands, they will ultimately weaken their organizations. It's up to top executives, he says, to give them a reason to care.

  9. Advanced Selling: A Comprehensive Course Sales Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarrington-Young, Susan; Castleberry, Stephen B.; Coleman, Joshua T.

    2016-01-01

    A comprehensive project for the Advanced Selling course that has been tested at three universities is introduced. After selecting an industry and a company, students engage in a complete industry analysis, a company sales analysis, a sales-specific SWOT analysis, complete a ride day with a salesperson in that firm, then present their findings in a…

  10. Cost accounting selling price formation: a case study in an industry of pneumatic suspensions of Caxias do Sul-RS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gisele Carina Pistore

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the contributions of cost accounting in the sale price formation in a pneumatic suspension industry. They present as main guiding authors of this study, Crepaldi (2009 and Martins (2003. This study is characterized as an exploratory research with a qualitative and quantitative approach, using the methodological approach of case study. Still, it uses the interview technique with experts in the field, with the director and an employee of the company. Data analysis is based on documentary research and content analysis. We present further calculations of labor cost, selling price formation and demonstration of profitability, based on information obtained in the company, to answer the research problem and propose the intervention proposal. This study aims to present a proposal for improvements in forming selling price, seeking to improve performance, reduce costs, save income developing new controls, in order to make it more competitive company studied. The proposed intervention is that the company create new cost centers, use costing methods, assessment criteria and form your price based on the markup taking into account the market price.

  11. Marketing and selling solar energy equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Book, Tony

    1999-01-01

    The literature on creating consumer awareness and acceptance of solar water heating systems for marketing purposes is sparse. This paper discusses some of the sophisticated marketing techniques available and some results. Selling solar water heating systems in Northern European latitudes requires a degree of persistence and commitment that is probably not required in what are regarded as the 'sunny climes' around the Mediterranean., the Middle East, Africa, South East Asia and Australia. (Author)

  12. The Prevalence of Phosphorus Containing Food Additives in Top Selling Foods in Grocery Stores

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, Janeen B.; Sullivan, Catherine M.; Sehgal, Ashwini R.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine the prevalence of phosphorus-containing food additives in best selling processed grocery products and to compare the phosphorus content of a subset of top selling foods with and without phosphorus additives. Design The labels of 2394 best selling branded grocery products in northeast Ohio were reviewed for phosphorus additives. The top 5 best selling products containing phosphorus additives from each food category were matched with similar products without phosphorus additives and analyzed for phosphorus content. Four days of sample meals consisting of foods with and without phosphorus additives were created and daily phosphorus and pricing differentials were computed. Setting Northeast Ohio Main outcome measures Presence of phosphorus-containing food additives, phosphorus content Results 44% of the best selling grocery items contained phosphorus additives. The additives were particularly common in prepared frozen foods (72%), dry food mixes (70%), packaged meat (65%), bread & baked goods (57%), soup (54%), and yogurt (51%) categories. Phosphorus additive containing foods averaged 67 mg phosphorus/100 gm more than matched non-additive containing foods (p=.03). Sample meals comprised mostly of phosphorus additive-containing foods had 736 mg more phosphorus per day compared to meals consisting of only additive-free foods. Phosphorus additive-free meals cost an average of $2.00 more per day. Conclusion Phosphorus additives are common in best selling processed groceries and contribute significantly to their phosphorus content. Moreover, phosphorus additive foods are less costly than phosphorus additive-free foods. As a result, persons with chronic kidney disease may purchase these popular low-cost groceries and unknowingly increase their intake of highly bioavailable phosphorus. PMID:23402914

  13. The prevalence of phosphorus-containing food additives in top-selling foods in grocery stores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, Janeen B; Sullivan, Catherine M; Sehgal, Ashwini R

    2013-07-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of phosphorus-containing food additives in best-selling processed grocery products and to compare the phosphorus content of a subset of top-selling foods with and without phosphorus additives. The labels of 2394 best-selling branded grocery products in northeast Ohio were reviewed for phosphorus additives. The top 5 best-selling products containing phosphorus additives from each food category were matched with similar products without phosphorus additives and analyzed for phosphorus content. Four days of sample meals consisting of foods with and without phosphorus additives were created, and daily phosphorus and pricing differentials were computed. Presence of phosphorus-containing food additives, phosphorus content. Forty-four percent of the best-selling grocery items contained phosphorus additives. The additives were particularly common in prepared frozen foods (72%), dry food mixes (70%), packaged meat (65%), bread and baked goods (57%), soup (54%), and yogurt (51%) categories. Phosphorus additive-containing foods averaged 67 mg phosphorus/100 g more than matched nonadditive-containing foods (P = .03). Sample meals comprised mostly of phosphorus additive-containing foods had 736 mg more phosphorus per day compared with meals consisting of only additive-free foods. Phosphorus additive-free meals cost an average of $2.00 more per day. Phosphorus additives are common in best-selling processed groceries and contribute significantly to their phosphorus content. Moreover, phosphorus additive foods are less costly than phosphorus additive-free foods. As a result, persons with chronic kidney disease may purchase these popular low-cost groceries and unknowingly increase their intake of highly bioavailable phosphorus. Copyright © 2013 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haupt, Sue Ellen [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2016-04-19

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few

  15. Collaborative Cyber-infrastructures for the Management of the UNESCO-IGCP Research Project "Forecast of tephra fallout"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folch, A.; Costa, A.; Cordoba, G.

    2009-04-01

    Tephra fallout following explosive volcanic eruptions produces several hazardous effects on inhabitants, infrastructure, and property and represents a serious threat for communities located around active volcanoes. In order to mitigate the effects on the surrounding areas, scientists and civil decision-making authorities need reliable short-term forecasts during episodes of eruptive crisis and long-term probabilistic maps to plan territorial policies and land use. Modelling, together with field studies and volcano monitoring, constitutes an indispensable tool to achieve these objectives. The UNESCO-IGCP research project proposal "Forecast of tephra fallout" has the aim to produce a series of tools capable to elaborate both short-term forecasts and long-term hazard assessments using the cutting-edge models for tephra transport and sedimentation. A special project website will be designed to supply a set of models, procedures and expertise to several Latino-American Institutes based in countries seriously threatened by this geo-hazard (Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Nicaragua). This will proportionate to the final users a tool to elaborate short-term forecasts of tephra deposition on the ground, and determine airborne ash concentrations (a quantity of special relevance for aerial navigation safety) during eruptions and emergencies. The project web-site will have a public section and a password-protected area to exchange information and data among participants and, eventually, to allow remote execution of high-resolution mesoscale meteorological forecasts at the BSC facilities. The public website section will be updated periodically and will include sections describing the project objectives and achievements as well as the hazard maps for the investigated volcanoes, and will be linked to other relevant websites such as IAVCEI, IGCP, IUGS and UNESCO homepages. A part of the public section of the website will be devoted to disseminate achieved

  16. Improving volcanic ash forecasts with ensemble-based data assimilation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fu, Guangliang

    2017-01-01

    The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption had serious consequences to civil aviation. This has initiated a lot of research on volcanic ash forecasting in recent years. For forecasting the volcanic ash transport after eruption onset, a volcanic ash transport and diffusion model (VATDM) needs to be

  17. A scientific forecast on dental research output within the next 20 years using exponential smoothing algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jafar Kolahi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To report a scientific forecast of the number of published dental articles in the next 20 years. Materials and Methods: On October 12, 2016, to find all dental articles, PubMed was searched via the query “1800/1/1”[PDAT]: “2015/12/31”[PDAT] AND jsubsetd [text]. Relevant limitations were applied to find dental clinical trials, review articles, and free full-text dental articles. Consequently, all PubMed records were exported to a CSV file. To forecast the future dental research output using existing time-based data, the Exponential Triple Smoothing algorithm was used, which is an advanced machine learning algorithm. Data were analyzed by Microsoft Office Excel 2016. Results: Seventy-five (1940–2015 years of human attempts to publish dental articles were explored and 572490 records were found, from which 27244 (4.75% articles were free full-text, 19238 (3.36% were clinical trials, and 31853 (5.56% were reviews. Researchers will publish 19195 dental articles in 2036, among which 917 (4.77% articles will be clinical trials, 1474 (7.67% will be review articles, and 5482 (28.55% will be free full-text articles. Conclusion: Changes may be because of the quantity of research funds. The number of all types of dental articles will increase with an acceptable rate over the next 20 years. Of more interest, the number of free full-text articles will grow more rapidly than other article types.

  18. THE ACCURACY OF EARNINGS FORECAST AND POST-IPO EARNINGS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanthi Hutagaol

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Prior studies showed that before IPO, many companies conducted earnings management in order to attractpotential investors through impressive earnings figures. This study aimed to investigate the tendency of earningsmanagement practice post - IPO. This practice of earnings management was motivated to preserve managers’reputation in achieving their earnings forecasts. Using a total of 165 IPOs in IDX during year 2000-2010, thisstudy employed descriptive analyses to identify the earnings management differences within the sample. A crosssectionanalysis was conducted to test the difference of earnings management indicator among the forecasters.Then, controlling for audit quality, ownership, firm size, and firm leverage, a regression analysis was performedto test the impact of earnings forecasts accuracy on the earnings management. The result of this research showedthat there was an indication that the forecasters conducted more earnings management than the non-forecasters.The study found that forecast accuracy was significantly related to managers’ behavior to manage post-IPOearnings. Further analysis showed that optimistic forecasters tended to engage more in more earning managementthan conservative forecasters. The cross section analysis confirmed that optimistic earnings forecast strengthenedthe relationship of forecast accuracy and post-IPO earnings management, while high audit quality failed toweaken it.

  19. Forecasting of indirect consumables for a Job Shop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakeel, M.; Khan, S.; Khan, W. A.

    2016-08-01

    A job shop has an arrangement where similar machines (Direct consumables) are grouped together and use indirect consumables to produce a product. The indirect consumables include hack saw blades, emery paper, painting brush etc. The job shop is serving various orders at a particular time for the optimal operation of job shop. Forecasting is required to predict the demand of direct and indirect consumables in a job shop. Forecasting is also needed to manage lead time, optimize inventory cost and stock outs. The objective of this research is to obtain the forecast for indirect consumables. The paper shows how job shop can manage their indirect consumables more accurately by establishing a new technique of forecasting. This results in profitable use of job shop by multiple users.

  20. MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING USING BAYESIAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Tutberidze

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available There are many arguments that can be advanced to support the forecasting activities of business entities. The underlying argument in favor of forecasting is that managerial decisions are significantly dependent on proper evaluation of future trends as market conditions are constantly changing and require a detailed analysis of future dynamics. The article discusses the importance of using reasonable macro-econometric tool by suggesting the idea of conditional forecasting through a Vector Autoregressive (VAR modeling framework. Under this framework, a macroeconomic model for Georgian economy is constructed with the few variables believed to be shaping business environment. Based on the model, forecasts of macroeconomic variables are produced, and three types of scenarios are analyzed - a baseline and two alternative ones. The results of the study provide confirmatory evidence that suggested methodology is adequately addressing the research phenomenon and can be used widely by business entities in responding their strategic and operational planning challenges. Given this set-up, it is shown empirically that Bayesian Vector Autoregressive approach provides reasonable forecasts for the variables of interest.

  1. Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Patrick Alves da Silva

    Full Text Available Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts.

  2. Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil's social security system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Carlos Patrick Alves da; Puty, Claudio Alberto Castelo Branco; Silva, Marcelino Silva da; Carvalho, Solon Venâncio de; Francês, Carlos Renato Lisboa

    2017-01-01

    Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government's proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts.

  3. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  4. Impact of Moist Physics Complexity on Tropical Cyclone Simulations from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalina, E. A.; Biswas, M.; Newman, K.; Grell, E. D.; Bernardet, L.; Frimel, J.; Carson, L.

    2017-12-01

    The parameterization of moist physics in numerical weather prediction models plays an important role in modulating tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and evolution. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational model for tropical cyclone prediction, uses the Scale-Aware Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SASAS) cumulus scheme and a modified version of the Ferrier-Aligo (FA) microphysics scheme to parameterize moist physics. The FA scheme contains a number of simplifications that allow it to run efficiently in an operational setting, which includes prescribing values for hydrometeor number concentrations (i.e., single-moment microphysics) and advecting the total condensate rather than the individual hydrometeor species. To investigate the impact of these simplifying assumptions on the HWRF forecast, the FA scheme was replaced with the more complex double-moment Thompson microphysics scheme, which individually advects cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel. Retrospective HWRF forecasts of tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific ocean basins from 2015-2017 were then simulated and compared to those produced by the operational HWRF configuration. Both traditional model verification metrics (i.e., tropical cyclone track and intensity) and process-oriented metrics (e.g., storm size, precipitation structure, and heating rates from the microphysics scheme) will be presented and compared. The sensitivity of these results to the cumulus scheme used (i.e., the operational SASAS versus the Grell-Freitas scheme) also will be examined. Finally, the merits of replacing the moist physics schemes that are used operationally with the alternatives tested here will be discussed from a standpoint of forecast accuracy versus computational resources.

  5. Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain); Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of La Rioja, Logrono (Spain); Monteiro, Claudio; Sousa, Joao; Bessa, Ricardo [FEUP, Fac. Engenharia Univ. Porto (Portugal)]|[INESC - Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores do Porto, Porto (Portugal)

    2009-07-15

    This paper presents a comparison of two new advanced statistical short-term wind-power forecasting systems developed by two independent research teams. The input variables used in both systems were the same: forecasted meteorological variable values obtained from a numerical weather prediction model; and electric power-generation registers from the SCADA system of the wind farm. Both systems are described in detail and the forecasting results compared, revealing great similarities, although the proposed structures of the two systems are different. The forecast horizon for both systems is 72 h, allowing the use of the forecasted values in electric market operations, as diary and intra-diary power generation bid offers, and in wind-farm maintenance planning. (author)

  6. HIV, STI prevalence and risk behaviours among women selling sex in Lahore, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaman Shakila

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background More than 340 million cases of curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs were estimated to have occurred worldwide in 1995. Previous studies have shown that the presence of other concomitant STIs increases the likelihood of HIV transmission. The first national study of STIs conducted in Pakistan in 2004 revealed a high burden of STIs among women selling sex. The HIV epidemic in Pakistan has thus far followed the "Asian epidemic model". Earlier studies among women selling sex have shown a low prevalence of HIV coupled with a low level of knowledge about AIDS. The aim of our study was to estimate the prevalence of HIV and STIs, and assess knowledge and risk behaviours related to HIV/STI, among women selling sex in Lahore, Pakistan. Methods A total of 730 participants were recruited through respondent-driven sampling. The participants were women selling sex in three areas (referred to as "A", "B", and "C" of Lahore. A structured questionnaire addressing demographic information, sexual life history, sexual contacts, and knowledge and practices related to HIV/STI prevention was administered by face-to-face interview. Biological samples were obtained from all participants and tested for HIV, Treponema pallidum, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Chlamydia trachomatis and Trichomonas vaginalis. Pearson's chi-square and multivariable logistic regression analysis were performed to test associations between potential risk factors and specified diagnosed infections. Results The prevalence of HIV infection was 0.7%, T pallidum 4.5%, N gonorrhoeae 7.5%, C trachomatis 7.7% and T vaginalis 5.1%. The participants had been selling sex for a median period of seven years and had a median of three clients per day. Sixty five percent of the participants reported that they "Always use condom". The median fee per sexual contact was Rs. 250 (3 Euro. Compared to Areas A and C, women selling sex in Area B had a significantly higher risk of chlamydial

  7. Rahvusvaheline bussiliiklus täna ja selle roll tulevikus

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2004-01-01

    MootorReisi Aktsiaseltsi kümne aastaseks saamise puhul korraldati konverents "Rahvusvaheline bussiliiklus täna ja selle roll tulevikus". MootorReisi AS-i tekkimisest. Vt. samas: Intervjuu MootorReisi AS-i juhatuse esimees Hugo Osulaga

  8. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  9. The weather forecasting in Colombia: Science plus Art

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Marentes, Humberto

    2006-01-01

    The presentation intends to show briefly and rapidly the progress weather forecasting science has undergone times until today. Undoubtedly, there has been an impressive technological advances, more data better models, better representations of the physics of the atmosphere; however for the case of the low latitude countries, there are still some problems to resolve concerning the local prediction that deserve more research and more data to be included in the models. As these limitations subsist, the subjective knowledge and the experience of the duty forecaster remain valuable. The presentation is also useful to summarize how IDEAM prepares short weather forecasts

  10. New Models for Forecasting Enrollments: Fuzzy Time Series and Neural Network Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Qiang; Chissom, Brad S.

    Since university enrollment forecasting is very important, many different methods and models have been proposed by researchers. Two new methods for enrollment forecasting are introduced: (1) the fuzzy time series model; and (2) the artificial neural networks model. Fuzzy time series has been proposed to deal with forecasting problems within a…

  11. Implementation of Automatic Clustering Algorithm and Fuzzy Time Series in Motorcycle Sales Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasim; Junaeti, E.; Wirantika, R.

    2018-01-01

    Accurate forecasting for the sale of a product depends on the forecasting method used. The purpose of this research is to build motorcycle sales forecasting application using Fuzzy Time Series method combined with interval determination using automatic clustering algorithm. Forecasting is done using the sales data of motorcycle sales in the last ten years. Then the error rate of forecasting is measured using Means Percentage Error (MPE) and Means Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of forecasting in the one-year period obtained in this study are included in good accuracy.

  12. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-11-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  13. Forecasting of Currency Crises in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Young Song

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have developed a forecasting system for currency crisis in East Asia based on a signaling approach. Our system uses 15 monthly indicators of five East Asian countries including Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand that were severely hit by the currency crisis in 1997. We investigate the performance of the system through deploying out-of-sample forecasting for the periods both before and after the 1997 East Asian currency crisis. Unlike the existing research based on the signaling approach, our out-of-sample forecasting does not fix the in-sample period. The out-of-sample forecasting between July 1995 and June 1997 shows that prior to breakout of the crisis, several indicators including real exchange rates and exports sent frequent warnings to all crisis-hit East Asian countries except the Philippines. This may indicate that a signaling-based early warning system for currency crisis could have been an useful method of forecasting the East Asian crisis. On the other hand, we also find that our forecasting system often generates warning signals during the out-of-sample period between July 1999 and June 2001. Since we have not observed any currency crisis in this region after 1998, these are all false alarms, indicating that our system may be seriously exposed to the type II error. We can, however, mitigate this problem if we adjust the optimal critical values of indicators depending on the preferences of forecasting system manager.

  14. The Stickiness of Selling, General, and Administrative Costs in the Indonesian Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benny Armanto

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Selling, general and administration costs are the main components in the Income Statement. A large number of permanent staff in sales and marketing department will make the company dominated by the fixed costs. This fact could lead to sticky cost behavior. In addition, role of the manager can also cause the cost stickiness. When the company’s revenue decreases, manager may delay to decrease the cost or not even decrease cost at all. The objective of the study is to determine whether cost stickiness of selling, general and administrative in the Indonesian listed companies. This study applied log-linear data panel regression with 3605 firm years that is listed in Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI from 1993 – 2013. This study finds that selling, general, and administrative costs are sticky only for the manufacturing companies. Furthermore, the results show that adjustment of sales, general, and administrative costs delayed by the manager when revenue decreases, yet the cost stickiness will be reduced in the next period.

  15. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  16. The Variance-covariance Method using IOWGA Operator for Tourism Forecast Combination

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangping Wu

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Three combination methods commonly used in tourism forecasting are the simple average method, the variance-covariance method and the discounted MSFE method. These methods assign the different weights that can not change at each time point to each individual forecasting model. In this study, we introduce the IOWGA operator combination method which can overcome the defect of previous three combination methods into tourism forecasting. Moreover, we further investigate the performance of the four combination methods through the theoretical evaluation and the forecasting evaluation. The results of the theoretical evaluation show that the IOWGA operator combination method obtains extremely well performance and outperforms the other forecast combination methods. Furthermore, the IOWGA operator combination method can be of well forecast performance and performs almost the same to the variance-covariance combination method for the forecasting evaluation. The IOWGA operator combination method mainly reflects the maximization of improving forecasting accuracy and the variance-covariance combination method mainly reflects the decrease of the forecast error. For future research, it may be worthwhile introducing and examining other new combination methods that may improve forecasting accuracy or employing other techniques to control the time for updating the weights in combined forecasts.

  17. The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Kozlowski, Danielle; Case, Jonathan; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) seeks to improve short-term, regional weather forecasts using unique NASA products and capabilities SPoRT has developed a unique, real-time configuration of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)WRF (ARW) that integrates all SPoRT modeling research data: (1) 2-km SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Composite, (2) 3-km LIS with 1-km Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVFs) (3) 45-km AIRS retrieved profiles. Transitioned this real-time forecast to NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) as deterministic model at Experimental Forecast Program (EFP). Feedback from forecasters/participants and internal evaluation of SPoRT-WRF shows a cool, dry bias that appears to suppress convection likely related to methodology for assimilation of AIRS profiles Version 2 of the SPoRT-WRF will premier at the 2012 EFP and include NASA physics, cycling data assimilation methodology, better coverage of precipitation forcing, and new GVFs

  18. A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengshi Tian

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

  19. Ragn-Sells: Reformierakond kandib prügiraha! / Mihkel Kärmas

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Kärmas, Mihkel, 1974-

    2010-01-01

    Firma Ragn-Sells kahtlustab, et Reformierakonda rahastati prügiärist kanditud miljonitega. Ragn-Sellsi kirjast riigikontrollile, õiguskantslerile ja siseministrile. Konkureeriva firma Veolia juhataja Argo Luude seisukoht

  20. ANALYSIS OF A DIRECT SELLING NETWORK FOR AGRIFOOD PRODUCTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Placido Rapisarda

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Sicily has become a food and wine area of great interest. However, conflicts within the supply chains have caused the selling process to become long and complex to the disadvantage of farmers, thereby leading to an information asymmetry between producers and consumers.In order to meet the new needs of the agrifood sector, we developed a theoretical model of organized direct selling that goes beyond regional boundaries, which is an alternative model to farmers’ markets and that helps to promote the creation of a network among the operators of Sicilian agrifood supply chains. The aims of this study was to verify the potential of the proposed theoretical model based on a SWOT analysis, which was achieved by collecting data from interviews with the producers involved in the Sicilian agrifood supply chains, and with the main stakeholders involved.

  1. Portfolio optimization with short-selling and spin-glass

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schianchi, A.; Bongini, L.; Degli Esposti, M.; Giardinà, C.

    2002-01-01

    n this paper, we solve a general problem of optimizing a portfolio in a futures markets framework, extending the previous work of Galluccio et al. [Physica A 259, 449 (1998)]. We allow for long buying/short selling of a relatively large number of assets, assuming a fixed level of margin requirement.

  2. Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianzhou; Dong Yao; Wu Jie; Mu Ren; Jiang He

    2011-01-01

    With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production. - Highlights: → Improved forecasting models make full use of the advantages of individual model. → Proposed models create commendable improvements for current research. → Proposed models do not make complicated decisions about the explicit form. → We forecast coal production of China from 2011 to 2015. → We suggest some policies for reducing carbon emissions.

  3. Coal production forecast and low carbon policies in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jianzhou [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wu Jie; Mu Ren; Jiang He [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

    2011-10-15

    With rapid economic growth and industrial expansion, China consumes more coal than any other nation. Therefore, it is particularly crucial to forecast China's coal production to help managers make strategic decisions concerning China's policies intended to reduce carbon emissions and concerning the country's future needs for domestic and imported coal. Such decisions, which must consider results from forecasts, will have important national and international effects. This article proposes three improved forecasting models based on grey systems theory: the Discrete Grey Model (DGM), the Rolling DGM (RDGM), and the p value RDGM. We use the statistical data of coal production in China from 1949 to 2005 to validate the effectiveness of these improved models to forecast the data from 2006 to 2010. The performance of the models demonstrates that the p value RDGM has the best forecasting behaviour over this historical time period. Furthermore, this paper forecasts coal production from 2011 to 2015 and suggests some policies for reducing carbon and other emissions that accompany the rise in forecasted coal production. - Highlights: > Improved forecasting models make full use of the advantages of individual model. > Proposed models create commendable improvements for current research. > Proposed models do not make complicated decisions about the explicit form. > We forecast coal production of China from 2011 to 2015. > We suggest some policies for reducing carbon emissions.

  4. 18 CFR 367.9120 - Account 912, Demonstrating and selling expenses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... incurred in promotional, demonstrating, and selling activities, except by merchandising, the object of... expenses of merchandising, jobbing and contract work (§ 367.4160), or 930.1, General advertising expenses...

  5. Fog prediction using the modified asymptotic liquid water content vertical distribution formulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, E.; Lee, S.; Kim, J.; Chae, D.

    2017-12-01

    Fog forecasts have difficulty in forecasting due to temporal and spatial resolution problems, high numerical computations, complicated mechanisms related to turbulence in order to analyze the fog in the model, and a lack of appropriate fog physical processes. Conventional fog prediction is based on the surface visibility threshold "fog diagnosis method is based on the fog related variables near the surface, such as visibility, low stratus, relative humidity and wind speed but this method only predicts fog occurrence not fog intensity. To improve this, a new fog diagnostic scheme, based on an asymptotic analytical study of radiation fog (Zhou and Ferrier 2008, ZF08) is to increase the accuracy of fog prediction by calculating the vertical LWC considering cooling, turbulence and droplet settling, visibility, surface relative humidity and low stratus. In this study, we intend to improve fog prediction through the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using high-resolution data. Although the prediction accuracy can be improved by combining the WRF Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) scheme and 1 dimension (1D) model, it is necessary to increase the vertical resolution in the boundary layer to implement the fog formation and persistence mechanism in the internal boundary layer in the PBL more accurately, we'll modify the algorithm to enhance the effects of turbulence and then compare the newly predicted fog and observations to determine the accuracy of the forecast of the fog occurring on the Korean peninsula.

  6. The adherence to UK legislation by online shops selling new psychoactive substances

    OpenAIRE

    Wadsworth, Elle; Drummond, Colin; Deluca, Paolo

    2017-01-01

    Aims: On the 26th of May 2016, the UK Government introduced the Psychoactive Substances Act, 2016. The aim of this short report is to explore online shops selling New Psychoactive Substances (NPS) stated motivations for closing and the changes that arose preceding the ban. Methods: The search for online shops selling NPS was made throughout October 2015. From March to June 2016, data were collected on the status of the online shops, and whether they mentioned the ban, the delay, or their clos...

  7. Accuracy gains of adding vote expectation surveys to a combined forecast of US presidential election outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Graefe

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available In averaging forecasts within and across four-component methods (i.e. polls, prediction markets, expert judgment and quantitative models, the combined PollyVote provided highly accurate predictions for the US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012. This research note shows that the PollyVote would have also outperformed vote expectation surveys, which prior research identified as the most accurate individual forecasting method during that time period. Adding vote expectations to the PollyVote would have further increased the accuracy of the combined forecast. Across the last 90 days prior to the six elections, a five-component PollyVote (i.e. including vote expectations would have yielded a mean absolute error of 1.08 percentage points, which is 7% lower than the corresponding error of the original four-component PollyVote. This study thus provides empirical evidence in support of two major findings from forecasting research. First, combining forecasts provides highly accurate predictions, which are difficult to beat for even the most accurate individual forecasting method available. Second, the accuracy of a combined forecast can be improved by adding component forecasts that rely on different data and different methods than the forecasts already included in the combination.

  8. ROMANIAN PERSPECTIVE ON CUSTOMER LOYALTY FOR DIRECT SELLING COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia BOBALCA

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the research is to investigate Romanian direct sellers’ perceptions on customers’ loyalty. The research objectives are: (1 to identify the direct sellers’ perceptions on the concept of loyalty; (2 to identify the main loyalty techniques that direct sellers use in their work with the clients; (3 to frame the portrait of a loyal customer. As a research method, we used qualitative research based on depth interviews. It is an exploratory and instrumental research, the results being used for building a questionnaire for a future survey. The investigated population is represented by direct selling women, with ages beteeen 19 and 30 years. For direct sellers, loyalty is an attitude and also a behavior, it means buying from the same company, from the same seller and preferring the products of the company. The main loyalty techniques that direct sellers use in their work with the clients are: promotional actions, personalization the relation with the client and offering stimulants. The loyal customer is the one who buys companies’ products every month or at least quarterly, spends a monthly amount of 100 Ron on these products, works with the same seller, pays on time for the order, doesn’t look only after promotions, loves the products, recommends the company to others, doesn’t return the order, wants to buy more products from the company and trusts its products.

  9. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  10. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  11. High-Resolution WRF Forecasts of Lightning Threat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, S. J.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.; LaCasse, K.

    2007-01-01

    Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

  12. Comparison on the forecast model of landfill surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Xiaozhi; Sang Shuxun; Cao Liwen; Ji Xiaoyan

    2010-01-01

    Using four large-scale simulated landfill equipments, indoor parallel simulation landfill experiment was carried out. By monitoring the cumulative settlement of MSW, comparable researches indicate the actual effects of 'empirical model' and 'biodegradation model' on landfill surface settlement forecast, and the optimization measures are proposed on the basis of model defects analysis. Research leaded to following results: To the short-term prediction of MSW settlement, two types of models all have satisfactory predictive validity. When performing medium and long-term prediction, 'empirical model' predicted a significant deviation from the actual, and the forecasting error of 'biodegradation model' is also gradually enlarge with the extending forecast period. For optimizing these two types of model, long-term surface settlement monitoring is fundamental method, and constantly modify the model parameters is the key according to the dynamic monitoring data. (authors)

  13. Report on the Audit of Foreign Direct Selling Costs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1990-01-01

    This is our final report on the Audit of Foreign Direct Selling Costs. The Contract Management Directorate made the audit from October 1989 to January 1990 in response to a requirement in U.S.C., title 10, Sec. 2324(f)(5...

  14. Day-ahead price forecasting in restructured power systems using artificial neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vahidinasab, V.; Jadid, S.; Kazemi, A.

    2008-01-01

    Over the past 15 years most electricity supply companies around the world have been restructured from monopoly utilities to deregulated competitive electricity markets. Market participants in the restructured electricity markets find short-term electricity price forecasting (STPF) crucial in formulating their risk management strategies. They need to know future electricity prices as their profitability depends on them. This research project classifies and compares different techniques of electricity price forecasting in the literature and selects artificial neural networks (ANN) as a suitable method for price forecasting. To perform this task, market knowledge should be used to optimize the selection of input data for an electricity price forecasting tool. Then sensitivity analysis is used in this research to aid in the selection of the optimum inputs of the ANN and fuzzy c-mean (FCM) algorithm is used for daily load pattern clustering. Finally, ANN with a modified Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) learning algorithm are implemented for forecasting prices in Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) market. The forecasting results were compared with the previous works and showed that the results are reasonable and accurate. (author)

  15. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  16. ECONOMETRIC FORECAST OF AGRICULTURAL SECTOR INVESTING IN LVOV REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostyslav Lytvyn

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of economic processes forecasting in agriculture is more relevant and urgent in recent years with application of applied econometric methods. In represented research paper, these methods are used to forecast investment and the main agricultural industry indicators of Lvov region of Ukraine. The linear trend model, the parabolic trend model and the exponential trend model were elaborated from the period from 2000 to 2009 in this scientific study using applied statistical tool STATGRAFICS and EXCEL spreadsheets. And with assistance of these models forecast for investment on the basis of data of essential indicators of agrarian sector of the region for 2010 and 2011 was made. All models with probability р=0,95 are adequate experimental data for 2000-2009 years, that allow to make the forecast of investments and main agricultural indicators of the researched region by these models for 2010 and 2011 years. Nevertheless, it should be pointed out that, because of small amount of input data analysis of regression equations coefficients have more qualitative than quantitative influence upon resulting variable y6.

  17. Real-Time Analysis and Forecasting of Multisite River Flow Using a Distributed Hydrological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingdong Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A spatial distributed hydrological forecasting system was developed to promote the analysis of river flow dynamic state in a large basin. The research presented the real-time analysis and forecasting of multisite river flow in the Nakdong River Basin using a distributed hydrological model with radar rainfall forecast data. A real-time calibration algorithm of hydrological distributed model was proposed to investigate the particular relationship between the water storage and basin discharge. Demonstrate the approach of simulating multisite river flow using a distributed hydrological model couple with real-time calibration and forecasting of multisite river flow with radar rainfall forecasts data. The hydrographs and results exhibit that calibrated flow simulations are very approximate to the flow observation at all sites and the accuracy of forecasting flow is gradually decreased with lead times extending from 1 hr to 3 hrs. The flow forecasts are lower than the flow observation which is likely caused by the low estimation of radar rainfall forecasts. The research has well demonstrated that the distributed hydrological model is readily applicable for multisite real-time river flow analysis and forecasting in a large basin.

  18. Clear turbulence forecasting - Towards a union of art and science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The development of clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting over the last several decades is reviewed in the context of empirical and theoretical research into the nature of nonconvective turbulence in the free atmosphere, particularly at jet stream levels. Various qualitative CAT forecasting techniques are examined, and prospects for an effective quantitative index to aid aviation meteorologists in jet stream level turbulence monitoring and forecasting are examined. Finally, the use of on-board sensors for short-term warning is discussed.

  19. How to sell renewable electricity. Interactions of the intraday and day-ahead market under uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knaut, Andreas; Obermueller, Frank

    2016-04-15

    Uncertainty about renewable production increases the importance of sequential short-term trading in electricity markets. We consider a two-stage market where conventional and renewable producers compete in order to satisfy the demand of consumers. The trading in the first stage takes place under uncertainty about production levels of renewable producers, which can be associated with trading in the day-ahead market. In the second stage, which we consider as the intraday market, uncertainty about the production levels is resolved. Our model is able to capture different levels of flexibility for conventional producers as well as different levels of competition for renewable producers. We find that it is optimal for renewable producers to sell less than the expected production in the day-ahead market. In situations with high renewable production it is even profitable for renewable producers to withhold quantities in the intraday market. However, for an increasing number of renewable producers, the optimal quantity tends towards the expected production level. More competition as well as a more flexible power plant fleet lead to an increase in overall welfare, which can even be further increased by delaying the gate-closure of the day-ahead market or by improving the quality of renewable production forecasts.

  20. Selling or telling? A theory of ruin value:Selling or Telling? Paradoxes in tourism, culture and heritage

    OpenAIRE

    Pihl, Ole Verner

    2011-01-01

    Selling or telling? : A theory of ruin value  Abstract: To what extent can tourism be described as an agent of peace? Can war and conflict be reconciled through tourism? Why is the children's memorial in Hiroshima so important and why is the Holocaust memorial in Berlin a reconciliating and fascinating monument?  The post apocalyptic vision in our mainstream mass culture is a broad genre and is loaded with heavy, dramatic architecture and landscapes of destruction; most religions have these d...

  1. Application of the Fractions Skill Score for Tracking the Effectiveness of Improvements Made to Weather Research and Forecasting Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-22

    Sciences Directorate ATTN: RDRL-CIE-M White Sands Missile Range, NM 88002 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER ARL-TR-8217 9. SPONSORING...assessment of the weather running estimate−nowcast (WRE−N). White Sands Missile Range (NM): Army Research Laboratory (US); 2016 Aug. Report No.: ARL-TR...observations into the model so that forecast quality is improved (Stauffer and Seaman 1994; Deng et al. 2009). The US Army Research Laboratory (ARL

  2. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  3. 12 CFR 617.7610 - What should the System institution do when it decides to sell acquired agricultural real estate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... decides to sell acquired agricultural real estate? 617.7610 Section 617.7610 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT... institution do when it decides to sell acquired agricultural real estate? (a) Notify the previous owner, (1) Within 15 days of the System institution's decision to sell acquired agricultural real estate, it must...

  4. 12 CFR 617.7620 - What should the System institution do when it decides to sell acquired agricultural real estate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... decides to sell acquired agricultural real estate at a public auction? 617.7620 Section 617.7620 Banks and... What should the System institution do when it decides to sell acquired agricultural real estate at a public auction? System institutions electing to sell or lease acquired agricultural real estate or a...

  5. Factor-based forecasting in the presence of outliers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Johannes Tang

    2014-01-01

    Macroeconomic forecasting using factor models estimated by principal components has become a popular research topic with many both theoretical and applied contributions in the literature. In this paper we attempt to address an often neglected issue in these models: The problem of outliers...... in the data. Most papers take an ad-hoc approach to this problem and simply screen datasets prior to estimation and remove anomalous observations. We investigate whether forecasting performance can be improved by using the original unscreened dataset and replacing principal components with a robust...... apply the estimator in a simulated real-time forecasting exercise to test its merits. We use a newly compiled dataset of US macroeconomic series spanning the period 1971:2–2012:10. Our findings suggest that the chosen treatment of outliers does affect forecasting performance and that in many cases...

  6. Synergizing two NWP models to improve hub-height wind speed forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, H. [Ortech International, Mississauga, ON (Canada); Taylor, P. [York Univ., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This PowerPoint presentation discussed some of the methods used to optimize hub-height wind speed forecasts. Statistical and physical forecast paradigms were considered. Forecast errors are often dictated by phase error, while refined NWP modelling is limited by data availability. A nested meso-scale NWP model was combined with a physical model to predict wind and power forecasts. Maps of data sources were included as well as equations used to derive predictions. Data from meteorological masts located near the Great Lakes were used to demonstrate the model. The results were compared with other modelling prediction methods. Forecasts obtained using the modelling approach can help operators in scheduling and trading procedures. Further research is being conducted to determine if the model can be used to improve ramp forecasts. tabs., figs.

  7. 31 CFR 356.0 - What authority does the Treasury have to sell and issue securities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... to sell and issue securities? 356.0 Section 356.0 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to... sell and issue securities? Chapter 31 of Title 31 of the United States Code authorizes the Secretary of... AND ISSUE OF MARKETABLE BOOK-ENTRY TREASURY BILLS, NOTES, AND BONDS (DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY...

  8. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  9. Gold sales forecasting: The Box-Jenkins methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Tshepiso Tsoku

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The study employs the Box-Jenkins Methodology to forecast South African gold sales. For a resource economy like South Africa where metals and minerals account for a high proportion of GDP and export earnings, the decline in gold sales is very disturbing. Box-Jenkins time series technique was used to perform time series analysis of monthly gold sales for the period January 2000 to June 2013 with the following steps: model identification, model estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is tested using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. From the analysis, a seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4×(0,1,112 was found to be the “best fit model” with an MAPE value of 11% indicating that the model is fit to be used to predict or forecast future gold sales for South Africa. In addition, the forecast values show that there will be a decrease in the overall gold sales for the first six months of 2014. It is hoped that the study will help the public and private sectors to understand the gold sales or output scenario and later plan the gold mining activities in South Africa. Furthermore, it is hoped that this research paper has demonstrated the significance of Box-Jenkins technique for this area of research and that they will be applied in the future.

  10. Commercialism in Schools: Supporting Students or Selling Access?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robelen, Erik W.

    1998-01-01

    This information brief discusses the impact of commercialism in schools. It asks the question of whether such advertising is supporting students or is simply selling access. It describes how children are a desirable market since they have most of their purchases ahead of them; they can also frequently convince parents to buy items. The brief…

  11. Patterns and correlates of illicit drug selling among youth in the USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmedani B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Michael G Vaughn1, Jeffrey J Shook2, Brian E Perron3, Arnelyn Abdon4, Brian Ahmedani51School of Social Work, School of Public Health and Department of Public Policy Studies, Saint Louis University, St Louis, MO USA; 2School of Social Work, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA USA; 3School of Social Work, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI USA; 4School of Economics, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines; 5Henry Ford Health System, Detroit MI, USAPurpose: Despite the high rates of drug selling among youth in juvenile justice and youth residing in disadvantage neighborhoods, relatively little is known about the patterns of illicit drug selling among youth in the general population.Methods: Using the public-use data file from the adolescent sample (N = 17 842 in the 2008 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH, this study employed multiple logistic regression to compare the behavioral, parental involvement, and prevention experiences of youth who sold and did not sell illicit drugs in the past year.Results: Findings from a series of logistic regression models indicated youth who sold drugs were far more likely to use a wide variety of drugs and engage in delinquent acts. Drug-selling youth were significantly less likely to report having a parent involved in their life and have someone to talk to about serious problems but were more likely to report exposure to drug prevention programming.Conclusion: Selling of drugs by youth appears to be a byproduct of substance abuse and deviance proneness, and the prevention programs these youth experience are likely a result of mandated exposure derived from contact with the criminal justice system. Assuming no major drug supply side reductions, policies, and practices associated with increasing drug abuse treatment, parental involvement and supervision, and school engagement are suggested.Keywords: drug distribution, prevention, adolescent risk, youth experiences, parental

  12. The Research of Regression Method for Forecasting Monthly Electricity Sales Considering Coupled Multi-factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui; Li, Tiantian; Yin, Shuo; He, Xinhui

    2018-01-01

    The monthly electricity sales forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safety of the power system. This paper presented a monthly electricity sales forecasting method which comprehensively considers the coupled multi-factors of temperature, economic growth, electric power replacement and business expansion. The mathematical model is constructed by using regression method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is accurate and effective.

  13. Forecasting Investment Risks in Conditions of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrenko Elena A.

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The article is aimed at studying the topical problem of evaluation and forecasting risks of investment activity of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty. Generalizing the researches on qualitative and quantitative methods for evaluating investment risks has helped to reveal certain shortcomings of the proposed approaches, to note in most of the publications there are no results as to any practical application, and to allocate promising directions. On the basis of the theory of fuzzy sets, a model of forecasting the expected risk has been proposed, making use of the Gauss membership function, which has certain advantages over the multi-angular membership functions. Dependences of investment risk from the parameters characterizing the investment project have been obtained. Using the formulas obtained, the total risk of investing in innovation project depending on the boundary conditions has been defined. As the researched target, index of profitability has been selected. The model provides the potential investors and developers with forecasting possible scenarios of investment process to make informed managerial decisions about the appropriateness of introduction and implementation of a project.

  14. Energiatõhusus ja selle hind / Tõnu Mauring

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Mauring, Tõnu, 1968-

    2010-01-01

    Austri arhitekti Georg W. Reinbergi raamatust "Ecological Architecture - Design, Planning, Realization" (2008). Uuringust, mis võttis kokku aastatel 2003-2008 Viini ehitatud elamute valimi andmed ning millest järeldub, et suuremate hoonete puhul võib passiivmaja maksumus olla madalenergiamajadega ühesugune. Vajadusest ehitada Eestis valmis oma näited, leidmaks, kas tõhus energia kasutamine ja inimsõbralik hoone on või ei ole konfliktis selle rajamise hinnaga

  15. Comparison of Adaline and Multiple Linear Regression Methods for Rainfall Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutawinaya, IP; Astawa, INGA; Hariyanti, NKD

    2018-01-01

    Heavy rainfall can cause disaster, therefore need a forecast to predict rainfall intensity. Main factor that cause flooding is there is a high rainfall intensity and it makes the river become overcapacity. This will cause flooding around the area. Rainfall factor is a dynamic factor, so rainfall is very interesting to be studied. In order to support the rainfall forecasting, there are methods that can be used from Artificial Intelligence (AI) to statistic. In this research, we used Adaline for AI method and Regression for statistic method. The more accurate forecast result shows the method that used is good for forecasting the rainfall. Through those methods, we expected which is the best method for rainfall forecasting here.

  16. Financial forecasts accuracy in Brazil’s social security system

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Long-term social security statistical forecasts produced and disseminated by the Brazilian government aim to provide accurate results that would serve as background information for optimal policy decisions. These forecasts are being used as support for the government’s proposed pension reform that plans to radically change the Brazilian Constitution insofar as Social Security is concerned. However, the reliability of official results is uncertain since no systematic evaluation of these forecasts has ever been published by the Brazilian government or anyone else. This paper aims to present a study of the accuracy and methodology of the instruments used by the Brazilian government to carry out long-term actuarial forecasts. We base our research on an empirical and probabilistic analysis of the official models. Our empirical analysis shows that the long-term Social Security forecasts are systematically biased in the short term and have significant errors that render them meaningless in the long run. Moreover, the low level of transparency in the methods impaired the replication of results published by the Brazilian Government and the use of outdated data compromises forecast results. In the theoretical analysis, based on a mathematical modeling approach, we discuss the complexity and limitations of the macroeconomic forecast through the computation of confidence intervals. We demonstrate the problems related to error measurement inherent to any forecasting process. We then extend this exercise to the computation of confidence intervals for Social Security forecasts. This mathematical exercise raises questions about the degree of reliability of the Social Security forecasts. PMID:28859172

  17. Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

    2006-12-01

    The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

  18. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  19. Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

  20. Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Version 4.0 Brings Forecasting Speed, Accuracy, and Capability Improvements to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling, K.; Denbo, D. W.; Eble, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) software was developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for use in tsunami forecasting and has been used by both U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) since 2012, when SIFTv3.1 was operationally accepted. Since then, advancements in research and modeling have resulted in several new features being incorporated into SIFT forecasting. Following the priorities and needs of the TWCs, upgrades to SIFT forecasting were implemented into SIFTv4.0, scheduled to become operational in October 2016. Because every minute counts in the early warning process, two major time saving features were implemented in SIFT 4.0. To increase processing speeds and generate high-resolution flooding forecasts more quickly, the tsunami propagation and inundation codes were modified to run on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). To reduce time demand on duty scientists during an event, an automated DART inversion (or fitting) process was implemented. To increase forecasting accuracy, the forecasted amplitudes and inundations were adjusted to include dynamic tidal oscillations, thereby reducing the over-estimates of flooding common in SIFTv3.1 due to the static tide stage conservatively set at Mean High Water. Further improvements to forecasts were gained through the assimilation of additional real-time observations. Cabled array measurements from Bottom Pressure Recorders (BPRs) in the Oceans Canada NEPTUNE network are now available to SIFT for use in the inversion process. To better meet the needs of harbor masters and emergency managers, SIFTv4.0 adds a tsunami currents graphical product to the suite of disseminated forecast results. When delivered, these new features in SIFTv4.0 will improve the operational tsunami forecasting speed, accuracy, and capabilities at NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers.

  1. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  2. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  3. The Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Managing Energy Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown Weiss, Edith

    1982-04-01

    Research and interviews with officials of the United States energy industry and a systems analysis of decision making in a natural gas utility lead to the conclusion that seasonal climate forecasts would only have limited value in fine tuning the management of energy supply, even if the forecasts were more reliable and detailed than at present.On the other hand, reliable forecasts could be useful to state and local governments both as a signal to adopt long-term measures to increase the efficiency of energy use and to initiate short-term measures to reduce energy demand in anticipation of a weather-induced energy crisis.To be useful for these purposes, state governments would need better data on energy demand patterns and available energy supplies, staff competent to interpret climate forecasts, and greater incentive to conserve. The use of seasonal climate forecasts is not likely to be constrained by fear of legal action by those claiming to be injured by a possible incorrect forecast.

  4. Sotsiaalne kapital ja selle mõõtmine / Väino Kuri

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Kuri, Väino

    2003-01-01

    Sotsiaalse kapitali mõistest ning lähenemisviisidest selle defineerimiseks. Sotsiaalse kapitali mõõtmisest Suurbritannias ja Soomes. Senisest Eesti kogemusest sotsiaalset kapitali puudutavate statistiliste andmete kogumisel. Tabel: Sotsiaalset kapitali iseloomustavad näitajad.

  5. Combined time-varying forecast based on the proper scoring approach for wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Xingying; Jiang, Yu; Yu, Kun

    2017-01-01

    Compared with traditional point forecasts, combined forecast have been proposed as an effective method to provide more accurate forecasts than individual model. However, the literature and research focus on wind-power combined forecasts are relatively limited. Here, based on forecasting error...... distribution, a proper scoring approach is applied to combine plausible models to form an overall time-varying model for the next day forecasts, rather than weights-based combination. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, real data of 3 years were used for testing. Simulation results...... demonstrate that the proposed method improves the accuracy of overall forecasts, even compared with a numerical weather prediction....

  6. Supplier Short Term Load Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression and Exogenous Input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matijaš, Marin; Vukićcević, Milan; Krajcar, Slavko

    2011-09-01

    In power systems, task of load forecasting is important for keeping equilibrium between production and consumption. With liberalization of electricity markets, task of load forecasting changed because each market participant has to forecast their own load. Consumption of end-consumers is stochastic in nature. Due to competition, suppliers are not in a position to transfer their costs to end-consumers; therefore it is essential to keep forecasting error as low as possible. Numerous papers are investigating load forecasting from the perspective of the grid or production planning. We research forecasting models from the perspective of a supplier. In this paper, we investigate different combinations of exogenous input on the simulated supplier loads and show that using points of delivery as a feature for Support Vector Regression leads to lower forecasting error, while adding customer number in different datasets does the opposite.

  7. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  8. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  9. An empirical study of the relationship between earnings forecasts and risk profile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malekian Esfandiar

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A new approach to examine the relationship between the excess of forecast based on characteristics toward management forecast and business risk is provided in this research at companies listed on the stock exchange in Tehran.The customary (traditional (approach is based on the regression of management forecast errors of past years. Therefore, the observable and unobservable inputs, such as managements, incentive misalignment, are used to predict management forecast errors. In this study, the future earnings is at first estimated by using characteristics including earnings per share, loss indicator, Neg. accruals per share , Pos. accruals per share ,asset growth , dividend indicator (non-payment of the dividend, Book-to-market value, share price and dividend per share for companies. Based on that, a criterion (CO for estimating the earnings forecast error was developed, which is the alternative forecasted errors. One should notice that, business risk is considered as a measure of company performance. In this study, measures of business risk are volatility of earnings and dividend ratio. Research findings show that, there is a significant relationship between the CO and volatility of earnings, on the contrary there is no significant relationship between this criteria and dividend ratio

  10. The search for organs: halachic perspectives on altruistic giving and the selling of organs

    OpenAIRE

    Kunin, J

    2005-01-01

    Altruistic donation of organs from living donors is widely accepted as a virtue and even encouraged as a duty. Selling organs, on the other hand, is highly controversial and banned in most countries. What is the Jewish legal (halachic) position on these issues? In this review it is explained that altruistic donation is praiseworthy but in no way obligatory. Selling organs is a subject of rabbinic dispute among contemporary authorities.

  11. Daily air quality index forecasting with hybrid models: A case in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Suling; Lian, Xiuyuan; Liu, Haixia; Hu, Jianming; Wang, Yuanyuan; Che, Jinxing

    2017-01-01

    Air quality is closely related to quality of life. Air pollution forecasting plays a vital role in air pollution warnings and controlling. However, it is difficult to attain accurate forecasts for air pollution indexes because the original data are non-stationary and chaotic. The existing forecasting methods, such as multiple linear models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector regression (SVR), cannot fully capture the information from series of pollution indexes. Therefore, new effective techniques need to be proposed to forecast air pollution indexes. The main purpose of this research is to develop effective forecasting models for regional air quality indexes (AQI) to address the problems above and enhance forecasting accuracy. Therefore, two hybrid models (EMD-SVR-Hybrid and EMD-IMFs-Hybrid) are proposed to forecast AQI data. The main steps of the EMD-SVR-Hybrid model are as follows: the data preprocessing technique EMD (empirical mode decomposition) is utilized to sift the original AQI data to obtain one group of smoother IMFs (intrinsic mode functions) and a noise series, where the IMFs contain the important information (level, fluctuations and others) from the original AQI series. LS-SVR is applied to forecast the sum of the IMFs, and then, S-ARIMA (seasonal ARIMA) is employed to forecast the residual sequence of LS-SVR. In addition, EMD-IMFs-Hybrid first separately forecasts the IMFs via statistical models and sums the forecasting results of the IMFs as EMD-IMFs. Then, S-ARIMA is employed to forecast the residuals of EMD-IMFs. To certify the proposed hybrid model, AQI data from June 2014 to August 2015 collected from Xingtai in China are utilized as a test case to investigate the empirical research. In terms of some of the forecasting assessment measures, the AQI forecasting results of Xingtai show that the two proposed hybrid models are superior to ARIMA, SVR, GRNN, EMD-GRNN, Wavelet-GRNN and Wavelet-SVR. Therefore, the

  12. Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model for GABLS3: Impact of boundary-layer schemes, boundary conditions and spin-up

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleczek, M.A.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of the three-dimensional Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model, specifically the performance of the planetary boundary-layer (PBL) parametrizations. For this purpose, Cabauw tower observations were used, with the study extending beyond the third GEWEX

  13. Coping with Changes in International Classifications of Sectors and Occupations: Application in Skills Forecasting. Research Paper No 43

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kvetan, Vladimir, Ed.

    2014-01-01

    Reliable and consistent time series are essential to any kind of economic forecasting. Skills forecasting needs to combine data from national accounts and labour force surveys, with the pan-European dimension of Cedefop's skills supply and demand forecasts, relying on different international classification standards. Sectoral classification (NACE)…

  14. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  15. A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.

    2011-12-01

    This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

  16. Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yalcinoz, T.; Eminoglu, U.

    2005-01-01

    Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey

  17. Sensitivity of monthly streamflow forecasts to the quality of rainfall forcing: When do dynamical climate forecasts outperform the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, M.; Prudhomme, C.; Harrigan, S.; Smith, K. A.; Parry, S.

    2017-12-01

    Forecasting hydrological extremes is challenging, especially at lead times over 1 month for catchments with limited hydrological memory and variable climates. One simple way to derive monthly or seasonal hydrological forecasts is to use historical climate data to drive hydrological models using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. This gives a range of possible future streamflow given known initial hydrologic conditions alone. The degree of skill of ESP depends highly on the forecast initialisation month and catchment type. Using dynamic rainfall forecasts as driving data instead of historical data could potentially improve streamflow predictions. A lot of effort is being invested within the meteorological community to improve these forecasts. However, while recent progress shows promise (e.g. NAO in winter), the skill of these forecasts at monthly to seasonal timescales is generally still limited, and the extent to which they might lead to improved hydrological forecasts is an area of active research. Additionally, these meteorological forecasts are currently being produced at 1 month or seasonal time-steps in the UK, whereas hydrological models require forcings at daily or sub-daily time-steps. Keeping in mind these limitations of available rainfall forecasts, the objectives of this study are to find out (i) how accurate monthly dynamical rainfall forecasts need to be to outperform ESP, and (ii) how the method used to disaggregate monthly rainfall forecasts into daily rainfall time series affects results. For the first objective, synthetic rainfall time series were created by increasingly degrading observed data (proxy for a `perfect forecast') from 0 % to +/-50 % error. For the second objective, three different methods were used to disaggregate monthly rainfall data into daily time series. These were used to force a simple lumped hydrological model (GR4J) to generate streamflow predictions at a one-month lead time for over 300 catchments

  18. Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietze, Michael C.; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay; Betancourt, Julio L.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Keitt, Timothy H.; Kenney, Melissa A.; Laney, Christine M.; Larsen, Laurel G.; Loescher, Henry W.; Lunch, Claire K.; Pijanowski, Bryan; Randerson, James T.; Read, Emily; Tredennick, Andrew T.; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C.; White, Ethan P.

    2018-01-01

    Two foundational questions about sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect these trajectories?” Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

  19. Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietze, Michael C; Fox, Andrew; Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Betancourt, Julio L; Hooten, Mevin B; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Keitt, Timothy H; Kenney, Melissa A; Laney, Christine M; Larsen, Laurel G; Loescher, Henry W; Lunch, Claire K; Pijanowski, Bryan C; Randerson, James T; Read, Emily K; Tredennick, Andrew T; Vargas, Rodrigo; Weathers, Kathleen C; White, Ethan P

    2018-02-13

    Two foundational questions about sustainability are "How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?" and "How do human decisions affect these trajectories?" Answering these questions requires an ability to forecast ecological processes. Unfortunately, most ecological forecasts focus on centennial-scale climate responses, therefore neither meeting the needs of near-term (daily to decadal) environmental decision-making nor allowing comparison of specific, quantitative predictions to new observational data, one of the strongest tests of scientific theory. Near-term forecasts provide the opportunity to iteratively cycle between performing analyses and updating predictions in light of new evidence. This iterative process of gaining feedback, building experience, and correcting models and methods is critical for improving forecasts. Iterative, near-term forecasting will accelerate ecological research, make it more relevant to society, and inform sustainable decision-making under high uncertainty and adaptive management. Here, we identify the immediate scientific and societal needs, opportunities, and challenges for iterative near-term ecological forecasting. Over the past decade, data volume, variety, and accessibility have greatly increased, but challenges remain in interoperability, latency, and uncertainty quantification. Similarly, ecologists have made considerable advances in applying computational, informatic, and statistical methods, but opportunities exist for improving forecast-specific theory, methods, and cyberinfrastructure. Effective forecasting will also require changes in scientific training, culture, and institutions. The need to start forecasting is now; the time for making ecology more predictive is here, and learning by doing is the fastest route to drive the science forward.

  20. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  1. The energy markets to 1995 - sector demand forecasts and summary. [United Kingdom

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, J

    1983-01-01

    Energy demand forecasts are often based on assumptions which are uncertain and dependent upon both political and economic factors. However, there is a need for long-term energy forecasting for the benefit of industry and commerce. CIRS (Cambridge Information and Research Services Limited) have tried to fulfill this need, based on forecasts of useful heat demand sector by sector which are then converted to heat energy supply and primary requirements. The first such forecast was produced in 1975. This 1983 updated projection examines coal, oil and gas supplies in the UK to the year 1995.

  2. Report on the Audit of Foreign Direct Selling Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-09-18

    This is our final report on the Audit of Foreign Direct Selling Costs. The Contract Management Directorate made the audit from October 1989 to...The objective of the audit was to assess whether DoD regulations provided the appropriate incentives to stimulate exports by the. U.S. Defense

  3. Deep Neural Network Based Demand Side Short Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seunghyoung Ryu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In the smart grid, one of the most important research areas is load forecasting; it spans from traditional time series analyses to recent machine learning approaches and mostly focuses on forecasting aggregated electricity consumption. However, the importance of demand side energy management, including individual load forecasting, is becoming critical. In this paper, we propose deep neural network (DNN-based load forecasting models and apply them to a demand side empirical load database. DNNs are trained in two different ways: a pre-training restricted Boltzmann machine and using the rectified linear unit without pre-training. DNN forecasting models are trained by individual customer’s electricity consumption data and regional meteorological elements. To verify the performance of DNNs, forecasting results are compared with a shallow neural network (SNN, a double seasonal Holt–Winters (DSHW model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE and relative root mean square error (RRMSE are used for verification. Our results show that DNNs exhibit accurate and robust predictions compared to other forecasting models, e.g., MAPE and RRMSE are reduced by up to 17% and 22% compared to SNN and 9% and 29% compared to DSHW.

  4. Forecasting multivariate volatility in larger dimensions: some practical issues

    OpenAIRE

    Adam E Clements; Ayesha Scott; Annastiina Silvennoinen

    2012-01-01

    The importance of covariance modelling has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management and large dimensional multivariate problems are increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating whether simpler moving average based correlation forecasting methods have equal predictive accuracy as their more complex multivariate GARCH counterparts for large dimensional problems. We find simpler forecasting techn...

  5. FORECAST FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT IN PEDIATRY FOR 2006–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.Yu. Al'bitskiy

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This publication contains the predictions of the scientific studies in pediatric patients. The forecast is developed by leading pediatricians of the country. It was based on the analysis of pediatrics developement and pediatric practice in the Russian Federation in recent decades.

  6. klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kprc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kogb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kdca Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kfar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ksts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. koth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ksgf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kbjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kftw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ksny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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