WorldWideScience

Sample records for resample model averaging

  1. An approximate analytical approach to resampling averages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malzahn, Dorthe; Opper, M.

    2004-01-01

    Using a novel reformulation, we develop a framework to compute approximate resampling data averages analytically. The method avoids multiple retraining of statistical models on the samples. Our approach uses a combination of the replica "trick" of statistical physics and the TAP approach for appr...... for approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate our approach on regression with Gaussian processes. A comparison with averages obtained by Monte-Carlo sampling shows that our method achieves good accuracy....

  2. Resampling Methods Improve the Predictive Power of Modeling in Class-Imbalanced Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul H. Lee

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In the medical field, many outcome variables are dichotomized, and the two possible values of a dichotomized variable are referred to as classes. A dichotomized dataset is class-imbalanced if it consists mostly of one class, and performance of common classification models on this type of dataset tends to be suboptimal. To tackle such a problem, resampling methods, including oversampling and undersampling can be used. This paper aims at illustrating the effect of resampling methods using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES wave 2009–2010 dataset. A total of 4677 participants aged ≥20 without self-reported diabetes and with valid blood test results were analyzed. The Classification and Regression Tree (CART procedure was used to build a classification model on undiagnosed diabetes. A participant demonstrated evidence of diabetes according to WHO diabetes criteria. Exposure variables included demographics and socio-economic status. CART models were fitted using a randomly selected 70% of the data (training dataset, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC was computed using the remaining 30% of the sample for evaluation (testing dataset. CART models were fitted using the training dataset, the oversampled training dataset, the weighted training dataset, and the undersampled training dataset. In addition, resampling case-to-control ratio of 1:1, 1:2, and 1:4 were examined. Resampling methods on the performance of other extensions of CART (random forests and generalized boosted trees were also examined. CARTs fitted on the oversampled (AUC = 0.70 and undersampled training data (AUC = 0.74 yielded a better classification power than that on the training data (AUC = 0.65. Resampling could also improve the classification power of random forests and generalized boosted trees. To conclude, applying resampling methods in a class-imbalanced dataset improved the classification power of CART, random forests

  3. Fine-mapping additive and dominant SNP effects using group-LASSO and Fractional Resample Model Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabourin, Jeremy; Nobel, Andrew B.; Valdar, William

    2014-01-01

    Genomewide association studies sometimes identify loci at which both the number and identities of the underlying causal variants are ambiguous. In such cases, statistical methods that model effects of multiple SNPs simultaneously can help disentangle the observed patterns of association and provide information about how those SNPs could be prioritized for follow-up studies. Current multi-SNP methods, however, tend to assume that SNP effects are well captured by additive genetics; yet when genetic dominance is present, this assumption translates to reduced power and faulty prioritizations. We describe a statistical procedure for prioritizing SNPs at GWAS loci that efficiently models both additive and dominance effects. Our method, LLARRMA-dawg, combines a group LASSO procedure for sparse modeling of multiple SNP effects with a resampling procedure based on fractional observation weights; it estimates for each SNP the robustness of association with the phenotype both to sampling variation and to competing explanations from other SNPs. In producing a SNP prioritization that best identifies underlying true signals, we show that: our method easily outperforms a single marker analysis; when additive-only signals are present, our joint model for additive and dominance is equivalent to or only slightly less powerful than modeling additive-only effects; and, when dominance signals are present, even in combination with substantial additive effects, our joint model is unequivocally more powerful than a model assuming additivity. We also describe how performance can be improved through calibrated randomized penalization, and discuss how dominance in ungenotyped SNPs can be incorporated through either heterozygote dosage or multiple imputation. PMID:25417853

  4. Modeling of correlated data with informative cluster sizes: An evaluation of joint modeling and within-cluster resampling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Liu, Wei; Zhang, Zhiwei; Qu, Yanping; Chen, Zhen; Albert, Paul S

    2017-08-01

    Joint modeling and within-cluster resampling are two approaches that are used for analyzing correlated data with informative cluster sizes. Motivated by a developmental toxicity study, we examined the performances and validity of these two approaches in testing covariate effects in generalized linear mixed-effects models. We show that the joint modeling approach is robust to the misspecification of cluster size models in terms of Type I and Type II errors when the corresponding covariates are not included in the random effects structure; otherwise, statistical tests may be affected. We also evaluate the performance of the within-cluster resampling procedure and thoroughly investigate the validity of it in modeling correlated data with informative cluster sizes. We show that within-cluster resampling is a valid alternative to joint modeling for cluster-specific covariates, but it is invalid for time-dependent covariates. The two methods are applied to a developmental toxicity study that investigated the effect of exposure to diethylene glycol dimethyl ether.

  5. A novel approach for epipolar resampling of cross-track linear pushbroom imagery using orbital parameters model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jannati, Mojtaba; Valadan Zoej, Mohammad Javad; Mokhtarzade, Mehdi

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to epipolar resampling of cross-track linear pushbroom imagery using orbital parameters model (OPM). The backbone of the proposed method relies on modification of attitude parameters of linear array stereo imagery in such a way to parallelize the approximate conjugate epipolar lines (ACELs) with the instantaneous base line (IBL) of the conjugate image points (CIPs). Afterward, a complementary rotation is applied in order to parallelize all the ACELs throughout the stereo imagery. The new estimated attitude parameters are evaluated based on the direction of the IBL and the ACELs. Due to the spatial and temporal variability of the IBL (respectively changes in column and row numbers of the CIPs) and nonparallel nature of the epipolar lines in the stereo linear images, some polynomials in the both column and row numbers of the CIPs are used to model new attitude parameters. As the instantaneous position of sensors remains fix, the digital elevation model (DEM) of the area of interest is not required in the resampling process. According to the experimental results obtained from two pairs of SPOT and RapidEye stereo imagery with a high elevation relief, the average absolute values of remained vertical parallaxes of CIPs in the normalized images were obtained 0.19 and 0.28 pixels respectively, which confirm the high accuracy and applicability of the proposed method.

  6. Image re-sampling detection through a novel interpolation kernel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilal, Alaa

    2018-06-01

    Image re-sampling involved in re-size and rotation transformations is an essential element block in a typical digital image alteration. Fortunately, traces left from such processes are detectable, proving that the image has gone a re-sampling transformation. Within this context, we present in this paper two original contributions. First, we propose a new re-sampling interpolation kernel. It depends on five independent parameters that controls its amplitude, angular frequency, standard deviation, and duration. Then, we demonstrate its capacity to imitate the same behavior of the most frequent interpolation kernels used in digital image re-sampling applications. Secondly, the proposed model is used to characterize and detect the correlation coefficients involved in re-sampling transformations. The involved process includes a minimization of an error function using the gradient method. The proposed method is assessed over a large database of 11,000 re-sampled images. Additionally, it is implemented within an algorithm in order to assess images that had undergone complex transformations. Obtained results demonstrate better performance and reduced processing time when compared to a reference method validating the suitability of the proposed approaches. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. The efficiency of average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling in identifying homogeneous precipitation catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuan, Zun Liang; Ismail, Noriszura; Shinyie, Wendy Ling; Lit Ken, Tan; Fam, Soo-Fen; Senawi, Azlyna; Yusoff, Wan Nur Syahidah Wan

    2018-04-01

    Due to the limited of historical precipitation records, agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms widely used to extrapolate information from gauged to ungauged precipitation catchments in yielding a more reliable projection of extreme hydro-meteorological events such as extreme precipitation events. However, identifying the optimum number of homogeneous precipitation catchments accurately based on the dendrogram resulted using agglomerative hierarchical algorithms are very subjective. The main objective of this study is to propose an efficient regionalized algorithm to identify the homogeneous precipitation catchments for non-stationary precipitation time series. The homogeneous precipitation catchments are identified using average linkage hierarchical clustering algorithm associated multi-scale bootstrap resampling, while uncentered correlation coefficient as the similarity measure. The regionalized homogeneous precipitation is consolidated using K-sample Anderson Darling non-parametric test. The analysis result shows the proposed regionalized algorithm performed more better compared to the proposed agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm in previous studies.

  8. Improved efficiency of multi-criteria IMPT treatment planning using iterative resampling of randomly placed pencil beams

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Water, S.; Kraan, A. C.; Breedveld, S.; Schillemans, W.; Teguh, D. N.; Kooy, H. M.; Madden, T. M.; Heijmen, B. J. M.; Hoogeman, M. S.

    2013-10-01

    This study investigates whether ‘pencil beam resampling’, i.e. iterative selection and weight optimization of randomly placed pencil beams (PBs), reduces optimization time and improves plan quality for multi-criteria optimization in intensity-modulated proton therapy, compared with traditional modes in which PBs are distributed over a regular grid. Resampling consisted of repeatedly performing: (1) random selection of candidate PBs from a very fine grid, (2) inverse multi-criteria optimization, and (3) exclusion of low-weight PBs. The newly selected candidate PBs were added to the PBs in the existing solution, causing the solution to improve with each iteration. Resampling and traditional regular grid planning were implemented into our in-house developed multi-criteria treatment planning system ‘Erasmus iCycle’. The system optimizes objectives successively according to their priorities as defined in the so-called ‘wish-list’. For five head-and-neck cancer patients and two PB widths (3 and 6 mm sigma at 230 MeV), treatment plans were generated using: (1) resampling, (2) anisotropic regular grids and (3) isotropic regular grids, while using varying sample sizes (resampling) or grid spacings (regular grid). We assessed differences in optimization time (for comparable plan quality) and in plan quality parameters (for comparable optimization time). Resampling reduced optimization time by a factor of 2.8 and 5.6 on average (7.8 and 17.0 at maximum) compared with the use of anisotropic and isotropic grids, respectively. Doses to organs-at-risk were generally reduced when using resampling, with median dose reductions ranging from 0.0 to 3.0 Gy (maximum: 14.3 Gy, relative: 0%-42%) compared with anisotropic grids and from -0.3 to 2.6 Gy (maximum: 11.4 Gy, relative: -4%-19%) compared with isotropic grids. Resampling was especially effective when using thin PBs (3 mm sigma). Resampling plans contained on average fewer PBs, energy layers and protons than anisotropic

  9. An add-in implementation of the RESAMPLING syntax under Microsoft EXCEL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meineke, I

    2000-10-01

    The RESAMPLING syntax defines a set of powerful commands, which allow the programming of probabilistic statistical models with few, easily memorized statements. This paper presents an implementation of the RESAMPLING syntax using Microsoft EXCEL with Microsoft WINDOWS(R) as a platform. Two examples are given to demonstrate typical applications of RESAMPLING in biomedicine. Details of the implementation with special emphasis on the programming environment are discussed at length. The add-in is available electronically to interested readers upon request. The use of the add-in facilitates numerical statistical analyses of data from within EXCEL in a comfortable way.

  10. A comparison of resampling schemes for estimating model observer performance with small ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elshahaby, Fatma E. A.; Jha, Abhinav K.; Ghaly, Michael; Frey, Eric C.

    2017-09-01

    In objective assessment of image quality, an ensemble of images is used to compute the 1st and 2nd order statistics of the data. Often, only a finite number of images is available, leading to the issue of statistical variability in numerical observer performance. Resampling-based strategies can help overcome this issue. In this paper, we compared different combinations of resampling schemes (the leave-one-out (LOO) and the half-train/half-test (HT/HT)) and model observers (the conventional channelized Hotelling observer (CHO), channelized linear discriminant (CLD) and channelized quadratic discriminant). Observer performance was quantified by the area under the ROC curve (AUC). For a binary classification task and for each observer, the AUC value for an ensemble size of 2000 samples per class served as a gold standard for that observer. Results indicated that each observer yielded a different performance depending on the ensemble size and the resampling scheme. For a small ensemble size, the combination [CHO, HT/HT] had more accurate rankings than the combination [CHO, LOO]. Using the LOO scheme, the CLD and CHO had similar performance for large ensembles. However, the CLD outperformed the CHO and gave more accurate rankings for smaller ensembles. As the ensemble size decreased, the performance of the [CHO, LOO] combination seriously deteriorated as opposed to the [CLD, LOO] combination. Thus, it might be desirable to use the CLD with the LOO scheme when smaller ensemble size is available.

  11. Fourier transform resampling: Theory and application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hawkins, W.G.

    1996-01-01

    One of the most challenging problems in medical imaging is the development of reconstruction algorithms for nonstandard geometries. This work focuses on the application of Fourier analysis to the problem of resampling or rebinning. Conventional resampling methods utilizing some form of interpolation almost always result in a loss of resolution in the tomographic image. Fourier Transform Resampling (FTRS) offers potential improvement because the Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) of the process behaves like an ideal low pass filter. The MTF, however, is nonstationary if the coordinate transformation is nonlinear. FTRS may be viewed as a generalization of the linear coordinate transformations of standard Fourier analysis. Simulated MTF's were obtained by projecting point sources at different transverse positions in the flat fan beam detector geometry. These MTF's were compared to the closed form expression for FIRS. Excellent agreement was obtained for frequencies at or below the estimated cutoff frequency. The resulting FTRS algorithm is applied to simulations with symmetric fan beam geometry, an elliptical orbit and uniform attenuation, with a normalized root mean square error (NRME) of 0.036. Also, a Tc-99m point source study (1 cm dia., placed in air 10 cm from the COR) for a circular fan beam acquisition was reconstructed with a hybrid resampling method. The FWHM of the hybrid resampling method was 11.28 mm and compares favorably with a direct reconstruction (FWHM: 11.03 mm)

  12. Introductory statistics and analytics a resampling perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Bruce, Peter C

    2014-01-01

    Concise, thoroughly class-tested primer that features basic statistical concepts in the concepts in the context of analytics, resampling, and the bootstrapA uniquely developed presentation of key statistical topics, Introductory Statistics and Analytics: A Resampling Perspective provides an accessible approach to statistical analytics, resampling, and the bootstrap for readers with various levels of exposure to basic probability and statistics. Originally class-tested at one of the first online learning companies in the discipline, www.statistics.com, the book primarily focuses on application

  13. A practitioners guide to resampling for data analysis, data mining, and modeling: A cookbook for starters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broek, Egon

    A practitioner’s guide to resampling for data analysis, data mining, and modeling provides a gentle and pragmatic introduction in the proposed topics. Its supporting Web site was offline and, hence, its potentially added value could not be verified. The book refrains from using advanced mathematics

  14. Assessment of resampling methods for causality testing: A note on the US inflation behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyrtsou, Catherine; Kugiumtzis, Dimitris; Diks, Cees

    2017-01-01

    Different resampling methods for the null hypothesis of no Granger causality are assessed in the setting of multivariate time series, taking into account that the driving-response coupling is conditioned on the other observed variables. As appropriate test statistic for this setting, the partial transfer entropy (PTE), an information and model-free measure, is used. Two resampling techniques, time-shifted surrogates and the stationary bootstrap, are combined with three independence settings (giving a total of six resampling methods), all approximating the null hypothesis of no Granger causality. In these three settings, the level of dependence is changed, while the conditioning variables remain intact. The empirical null distribution of the PTE, as the surrogate and bootstrapped time series become more independent, is examined along with the size and power of the respective tests. Additionally, we consider a seventh resampling method by contemporaneously resampling the driving and the response time series using the stationary bootstrap. Although this case does not comply with the no causality hypothesis, one can obtain an accurate sampling distribution for the mean of the test statistic since its value is zero under H0. Results indicate that as the resampling setting gets more independent, the test becomes more conservative. Finally, we conclude with a real application. More specifically, we investigate the causal links among the growth rates for the US CPI, money supply and crude oil. Based on the PTE and the seven resampling methods, we consistently find that changes in crude oil cause inflation conditioning on money supply in the post-1986 period. However this relationship cannot be explained on the basis of traditional cost-push mechanisms. PMID:28708870

  15. Assessment of resampling methods for causality testing: A note on the US inflation behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papana, Angeliki; Kyrtsou, Catherine; Kugiumtzis, Dimitris; Diks, Cees

    2017-01-01

    Different resampling methods for the null hypothesis of no Granger causality are assessed in the setting of multivariate time series, taking into account that the driving-response coupling is conditioned on the other observed variables. As appropriate test statistic for this setting, the partial transfer entropy (PTE), an information and model-free measure, is used. Two resampling techniques, time-shifted surrogates and the stationary bootstrap, are combined with three independence settings (giving a total of six resampling methods), all approximating the null hypothesis of no Granger causality. In these three settings, the level of dependence is changed, while the conditioning variables remain intact. The empirical null distribution of the PTE, as the surrogate and bootstrapped time series become more independent, is examined along with the size and power of the respective tests. Additionally, we consider a seventh resampling method by contemporaneously resampling the driving and the response time series using the stationary bootstrap. Although this case does not comply with the no causality hypothesis, one can obtain an accurate sampling distribution for the mean of the test statistic since its value is zero under H0. Results indicate that as the resampling setting gets more independent, the test becomes more conservative. Finally, we conclude with a real application. More specifically, we investigate the causal links among the growth rates for the US CPI, money supply and crude oil. Based on the PTE and the seven resampling methods, we consistently find that changes in crude oil cause inflation conditioning on money supply in the post-1986 period. However this relationship cannot be explained on the basis of traditional cost-push mechanisms.

  16. Efficient p-value evaluation for resampling-based tests

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, K.

    2011-01-05

    The resampling-based test, which often relies on permutation or bootstrap procedures, has been widely used for statistical hypothesis testing when the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is unavailable or unreliable. It requires repeated calculations of the test statistic on a large number of simulated data sets for its significance level assessment, and thus it could become very computationally intensive. Here, we propose an efficient p-value evaluation procedure by adapting the stochastic approximation Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The new procedure can be used easily for estimating the p-value for any resampling-based test. We show through numeric simulations that the proposed procedure can be 100-500 000 times as efficient (in term of computing time) as the standard resampling-based procedure when evaluating a test statistic with a small p-value (e.g. less than 10( - 6)). With its computational burden reduced by this proposed procedure, the versatile resampling-based test would become computationally feasible for a much wider range of applications. We demonstrate the application of the new method by applying it to a large-scale genetic association study of prostate cancer.

  17. RELATIVE ORIENTATION AND MODIFIED PIECEWISE EPIPOLAR RESAMPLING FOR HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Gong

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available High resolution, optical satellite sensors are boosted to a new era in the last few years, because satellite stereo images at half meter or even 30cm resolution are available. Nowadays, high resolution satellite image data have been commonly used for Digital Surface Model (DSM generation and 3D reconstruction. It is common that the Rational Polynomial Coefficients (RPCs provided by the vendors have rough precision and there is no ground control information available to refine the RPCs. Therefore, we present two relative orientation methods by using corresponding image points only: the first method will use quasi ground control information, which is generated from the corresponding points and rough RPCs, for the bias-compensation model; the second method will estimate the relative pointing errors on the matching image and remove this error by an affine model. Both methods do not need ground control information and are applied for the entire image. To get very dense point clouds, the Semi-Global Matching (SGM method is an efficient tool. However, before accomplishing the matching process the epipolar constraints are required. In most conditions, satellite images have very large dimensions, contrary to the epipolar geometry generation and image resampling, which is usually carried out in small tiles. This paper also presents a modified piecewise epipolar resampling method for the entire image without tiling. The quality of the proposed relative orientation and epipolar resampling method are evaluated, and finally sub-pixel accuracy has been achieved in our work.

  18. Resampling methods in Microsoft Excel® for estimating reference intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodorsson, Elvar

    2015-01-01

    Computer-intensive resampling/bootstrap methods are feasible when calculating reference intervals from non-Gaussian or small reference samples. Microsoft Excel® in version 2010 or later includes natural functions, which lend themselves well to this purpose including recommended interpolation procedures for estimating 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles. 
The purpose of this paper is to introduce the reader to resampling estimation techniques in general and in using Microsoft Excel® 2010 for the purpose of estimating reference intervals in particular.
 Parametric methods are preferable to resampling methods when the distributions of observations in the reference samples is Gaussian or can transformed to that distribution even when the number of reference samples is less than 120. Resampling methods are appropriate when the distribution of data from the reference samples is non-Gaussian and in case the number of reference individuals and corresponding samples are in the order of 40. At least 500-1000 random samples with replacement should be taken from the results of measurement of the reference samples.

  19. PARTICLE FILTER BASED VEHICLE TRACKING APPROACH WITH IMPROVED RESAMPLING STAGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Leong Khong

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Optical sensors based vehicle tracking can be widely implemented in traffic surveillance and flow control. The vast development of video surveillance infrastructure in recent years has drawn the current research focus towards vehicle tracking using high-end and low cost optical sensors. However, tracking vehicles via such sensors could be challenging due to the high probability of changing vehicle appearance and illumination, besides the occlusion and overlapping incidents. Particle filter has been proven as an approach which can overcome nonlinear and non-Gaussian situations caused by cluttered background and occlusion incidents. Unfortunately, conventional particle filter approach encounters particle degeneracy especially during and after the occlusion. Particle filter with sampling important resampling (SIR is an important step to overcome the drawback of particle filter, but SIR faced the problem of sample impoverishment when heavy particles are statistically selected many times. In this work, genetic algorithm has been proposed to be implemented in the particle filter resampling stage, where the estimated position can converge faster to hit the real position of target vehicle under various occlusion incidents. The experimental results show that the improved particle filter with genetic algorithm resampling method manages to increase the tracking accuracy and meanwhile reduce the particle sample size in the resampling stage.

  20. Testing for Granger Causality in the Frequency Domain: A Phase Resampling Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Siwei; Molenaar, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This article introduces phase resampling, an existing but rarely used surrogate data method for making statistical inferences of Granger causality in frequency domain time series analysis. Granger causality testing is essential for establishing causal relations among variables in multivariate dynamic processes. However, testing for Granger causality in the frequency domain is challenging due to the nonlinear relation between frequency domain measures (e.g., partial directed coherence, generalized partial directed coherence) and time domain data. Through a simulation study, we demonstrate that phase resampling is a general and robust method for making statistical inferences even with short time series. With Gaussian data, phase resampling yields satisfactory type I and type II error rates in all but one condition we examine: when a small effect size is combined with an insufficient number of data points. Violations of normality lead to slightly higher error rates but are mostly within acceptable ranges. We illustrate the utility of phase resampling with two empirical examples involving multivariate electroencephalography (EEG) and skin conductance data.

  1. Efficient p-value evaluation for resampling-based tests

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, K.; Liang, F.; Ciampa, J.; Chatterjee, N.

    2011-01-01

    The resampling-based test, which often relies on permutation or bootstrap procedures, has been widely used for statistical hypothesis testing when the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic is unavailable or unreliable. It requires repeated

  2. EmpiriciSN: Re-sampling Observed Supernova/Host Galaxy Populations Using an XD Gaussian Mixture Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holoien, Thomas W.-S.; Marshall, Philip J.; Wechsler, Risa H.

    2017-06-01

    We describe two new open-source tools written in Python for performing extreme deconvolution Gaussian mixture modeling (XDGMM) and using a conditioned model to re-sample observed supernova and host galaxy populations. XDGMM is new program that uses Gaussian mixtures to perform density estimation of noisy data using extreme deconvolution (XD) algorithms. Additionally, it has functionality not available in other XD tools. It allows the user to select between the AstroML and Bovy et al. fitting methods and is compatible with scikit-learn machine learning algorithms. Most crucially, it allows the user to condition a model based on the known values of a subset of parameters. This gives the user the ability to produce a tool that can predict unknown parameters based on a model that is conditioned on known values of other parameters. EmpiriciSN is an exemplary application of this functionality, which can be used to fit an XDGMM model to observed supernova/host data sets and predict likely supernova parameters using a model conditioned on observed host properties. It is primarily intended to simulate realistic supernovae for LSST data simulations based on empirical galaxy properties.

  3. EmpiriciSN: Re-sampling Observed Supernova/Host Galaxy Populations Using an XD Gaussian Mixture Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holoien, Thomas W.-S.; /Ohio State U., Dept. Astron. /Ohio State U., CCAPP /KIPAC, Menlo Park /SLAC; Marshall, Philip J.; Wechsler, Risa H.; /KIPAC, Menlo Park /SLAC

    2017-05-11

    We describe two new open-source tools written in Python for performing extreme deconvolution Gaussian mixture modeling (XDGMM) and using a conditioned model to re-sample observed supernova and host galaxy populations. XDGMM is new program that uses Gaussian mixtures to perform density estimation of noisy data using extreme deconvolution (XD) algorithms. Additionally, it has functionality not available in other XD tools. It allows the user to select between the AstroML and Bovy et al. fitting methods and is compatible with scikit-learn machine learning algorithms. Most crucially, it allows the user to condition a model based on the known values of a subset of parameters. This gives the user the ability to produce a tool that can predict unknown parameters based on a model that is conditioned on known values of other parameters. EmpiriciSN is an exemplary application of this functionality, which can be used to fit an XDGMM model to observed supernova/host data sets and predict likely supernova parameters using a model conditioned on observed host properties. It is primarily intended to simulate realistic supernovae for LSST data simulations based on empirical galaxy properties.

  4. Comment on: 'A Poisson resampling method for simulating reduced counts in nuclear medicine images'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Nijs, Robin

    2015-07-21

    In order to be able to calculate half-count images from already acquired data, White and Lawson published their method based on Poisson resampling. They verified their method experimentally by measurements with a Co-57 flood source. In this comment their results are reproduced and confirmed by a direct numerical simulation in Matlab. Not only Poisson resampling, but also two direct redrawing methods were investigated. Redrawing methods were based on a Poisson and a Gaussian distribution. Mean, standard deviation, skewness and excess kurtosis half-count/full-count ratios were determined for all methods, and compared to the theoretical values for a Poisson distribution. Statistical parameters showed the same behavior as in the original note and showed the superiority of the Poisson resampling method. Rounding off before saving of the half count image had a severe impact on counting statistics for counts below 100. Only Poisson resampling was not affected by this, while Gaussian redrawing was less affected by it than Poisson redrawing. Poisson resampling is the method of choice, when simulating half-count (or less) images from full-count images. It simulates correctly the statistical properties, also in the case of rounding off of the images.

  5. Winter Holts Oscillatory Method: A New Method of Resampling in Time Series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Imtiaz Subhani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The core proposition behind this research is to create innovative methods of bootstrapping that can be applied in time series data. In order to find new methods of bootstrapping, various methods were reviewed; The data of automotive Sales, Market Shares and Net Exports of the top 10 countries, which includes China, Europe, United States of America (USA, Japan, Germany, South Korea, India, Mexico, Brazil, Spain and, Canada from 2002 to 2014 were collected through various sources which includes UN Comtrade, Index Mundi and World Bank. The findings of this paper confirmed that Bootstrapping for resampling through winter forecasting by Oscillation and Average methods give more robust results than the winter forecasting by any general methods.

  6. NAIP Aerial Imagery (Resampled), Salton Sea - 2005 [ds425

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Natural Resource Agency — NAIP 2005 aerial imagery that has been resampled from 1-meter source resolution to approximately 30-meter resolution. This is a mosaic composed from several NAIP...

  7. Resampling to accelerate cross-correlation searches for continuous gravitational waves from binary systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meadors, Grant David; Krishnan, Badri; Papa, Maria Alessandra; Whelan, John T.; Zhang, Yuanhao

    2018-02-01

    Continuous-wave (CW) gravitational waves (GWs) call for computationally-intensive methods. Low signal-to-noise ratio signals need templated searches with long coherent integration times and thus fine parameter-space resolution. Longer integration increases sensitivity. Low-mass x-ray binaries (LMXBs) such as Scorpius X-1 (Sco X-1) may emit accretion-driven CWs at strains reachable by current ground-based observatories. Binary orbital parameters induce phase modulation. This paper describes how resampling corrects binary and detector motion, yielding source-frame time series used for cross-correlation. Compared to the previous, detector-frame, templated cross-correlation method, used for Sco X-1 on data from the first Advanced LIGO observing run (O1), resampling is about 20 × faster in the costliest, most-sensitive frequency bands. Speed-up factors depend on integration time and search setup. The speed could be reinvested into longer integration with a forecast sensitivity gain, 20 to 125 Hz median, of approximately 51%, or from 20 to 250 Hz, 11%, given the same per-band cost and setup. This paper's timing model enables future setup optimization. Resampling scales well with longer integration, and at 10 × unoptimized cost could reach respectively 2.83 × and 2.75 × median sensitivities, limited by spin-wandering. Then an O1 search could yield a marginalized-polarization upper limit reaching torque-balance at 100 Hz. Frequencies from 40 to 140 Hz might be probed in equal observing time with 2 × improved detectors.

  8. VOYAGER 1 SATURN MAGNETOMETER RESAMPLED DATA 9.60 SEC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes Voyager 1 Saturn encounter magnetometer data that have been resampled at a 9.6 second sample rate. The data set is composed of 6 columns: 1)...

  9. VOYAGER 2 JUPITER MAGNETOMETER RESAMPLED DATA 48.0 SEC

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set includes Voyager 2 Jupiter encounter magnetometer data that have been resampled at a 48.0 second sample rate. The data set is composed of 6 columns: 1)...

  10. Comparison of standard resampling methods for performance estimation of artificial neural network ensembles

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Michael; Ohlsson, Mattias

    2007-01-01

    Estimation of the generalization performance for classification within the medical applications domain is always an important task. In this study we focus on artificial neural network ensembles as the machine learning technique. We present a numerical comparison between five common resampling techniques: k-fold cross validation (CV), holdout, using three cutoffs, and bootstrap using five different data sets. The results show that CV together with holdout $0.25$ and $0.50$ are the best resampl...

  11. Event-based stochastic point rainfall resampling for statistical replication and climate projection of historical rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Korup Andersen, Aske; Larsen, Anders Badsberg

    2017-01-01

    Continuous and long rainfall series are a necessity in rural and urban hydrology for analysis and design purposes. Local historical point rainfall series often cover several decades, which makes it possible to estimate rainfall means at different timescales, and to assess return periods of extreme...... includes climate changes projected to a specific future period. This paper presents a framework for resampling of historical point rainfall series in order to generate synthetic rainfall series, which has the same statistical properties as an original series. Using a number of key target predictions...... for the future climate, such as winter and summer precipitation, and representation of extreme events, the resampled historical series are projected to represent rainfall properties in a future climate. Climate-projected rainfall series are simulated by brute force randomization of model parameters, which leads...

  12. Automatic recognition of 3D GGO CT imaging signs through the fusion of hybrid resampling and layer-wise fine-tuning CNNs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guanghui; Liu, Xiabi; Zheng, Guangyuan; Wang, Murong; Huang, Shan

    2018-06-06

    Ground-glass opacity (GGO) is a common CT imaging sign on high-resolution CT, which means the lesion is more likely to be malignant compared to common solid lung nodules. The automatic recognition of GGO CT imaging signs is of great importance for early diagnosis and possible cure of lung cancers. The present GGO recognition methods employ traditional low-level features and system performance improves slowly. Considering the high-performance of CNN model in computer vision field, we proposed an automatic recognition method of 3D GGO CT imaging signs through the fusion of hybrid resampling and layer-wise fine-tuning CNN models in this paper. Our hybrid resampling is performed on multi-views and multi-receptive fields, which reduces the risk of missing small or large GGOs by adopting representative sampling panels and processing GGOs with multiple scales simultaneously. The layer-wise fine-tuning strategy has the ability to obtain the optimal fine-tuning model. Multi-CNN models fusion strategy obtains better performance than any single trained model. We evaluated our method on the GGO nodule samples in publicly available LIDC-IDRI dataset of chest CT scans. The experimental results show that our method yields excellent results with 96.64% sensitivity, 71.43% specificity, and 0.83 F1 score. Our method is a promising approach to apply deep learning method to computer-aided analysis of specific CT imaging signs with insufficient labeled images. Graphical abstract We proposed an automatic recognition method of 3D GGO CT imaging signs through the fusion of hybrid resampling and layer-wise fine-tuning CNN models in this paper. Our hybrid resampling reduces the risk of missing small or large GGOs by adopting representative sampling panels and processing GGOs with multiple scales simultaneously. The layer-wise fine-tuning strategy has ability to obtain the optimal fine-tuning model. Our method is a promising approach to apply deep learning method to computer-aided analysis

  13. Averaging models: parameters estimation with the R-Average procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Noventa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Functional Measurement approach, proposed within the theoretical framework of Information Integration Theory (Anderson, 1981, 1982, can be a useful multi-attribute analysis tool. Compared to the majority of statistical models, the averaging model can account for interaction effects without adding complexity. The R-Average method (Vidotto & Vicentini, 2007 can be used to estimate the parameters of these models. By the use of multiple information criteria in the model selection procedure, R-Average allows for the identification of the best subset of parameters that account for the data. After a review of the general method, we present an implementation of the procedure in the framework of R-project, followed by some experiments using a Monte Carlo method.

  14. Genetic divergence among cupuaçu accessions by multiscale bootstrap resampling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinicius Silva dos Santos

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed at investigating the genetic divergence of eighteen accessions of cupuaçu trees based on fruit morphometric traits and comparing usual methods of cluster analysis with the proposed multiscale bootstrap resampling methodology. The data were obtained from an experiment conducted in Tomé-Açu city (PA, Brazil, arranged in a completely randomized design with eighteen cupuaçu accessions and 10 repetitions, from 2004 to 2011. Genetic parameters were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood/best linear unbiased prediction (REML/BLUP methodology. The predicted breeding values were used in the study on genetic divergence through Unweighted Pair Cluster Method with Arithmetic Mean (UPGMA hierarchical clustering and Tocher’s optimization method based on standardized Euclidean distance. Clustering consistency and optimal number of clusters in the UPGMA method were verified by the cophenetic correlation coefficient (CCC and Mojena’s criterion, respectively, besides the multiscale bootstrap resampling technique. The use of the clustering UPGMA method in situations with and without multiscale bootstrap resulted in four and five clusters, respectively, while the Tocher’s method resulted in seven clusters. The multiscale bootstrap resampling technique proves to be efficient to assess the consistency of clustering in hierarchical methods and, consequently, the optimal number of clusters.

  15. Comment on: 'A Poisson resampling method for simulating reduced counts in nuclear medicine images'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Nijs, Robin

    2015-01-01

    In order to be able to calculate half-count images from already acquired data, White and Lawson published their method based on Poisson resampling. They verified their method experimentally by measurements with a Co-57 flood source. In this comment their results are reproduced and confirmed...... by a direct numerical simulation in Matlab. Not only Poisson resampling, but also two direct redrawing methods were investigated. Redrawing methods were based on a Poisson and a Gaussian distribution. Mean, standard deviation, skewness and excess kurtosis half-count/full-count ratios were determined for all...... methods, and compared to the theoretical values for a Poisson distribution. Statistical parameters showed the same behavior as in the original note and showed the superiority of the Poisson resampling method. Rounding off before saving of the half count image had a severe impact on counting statistics...

  16. Accelerated spike resampling for accurate multiple testing controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Matthew T

    2013-02-01

    Controlling for multiple hypothesis tests using standard spike resampling techniques often requires prohibitive amounts of computation. Importance sampling techniques can be used to accelerate the computation. The general theory is presented, along with specific examples for testing differences across conditions using permutation tests and for testing pairwise synchrony and precise lagged-correlation between many simultaneously recorded spike trains using interval jitter.

  17. Resampling-based methods in single and multiple testing for equality of covariance/correlation matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yang; DeGruttola, Victor

    2012-06-22

    Traditional resampling-based tests for homogeneity in covariance matrices across multiple groups resample residuals, that is, data centered by group means. These residuals do not share the same second moments when the null hypothesis is false, which makes them difficult to use in the setting of multiple testing. An alternative approach is to resample standardized residuals, data centered by group sample means and standardized by group sample covariance matrices. This approach, however, has been observed to inflate type I error when sample size is small or data are generated from heavy-tailed distributions. We propose to improve this approach by using robust estimation for the first and second moments. We discuss two statistics: the Bartlett statistic and a statistic based on eigen-decomposition of sample covariance matrices. Both statistics can be expressed in terms of standardized errors under the null hypothesis. These methods are extended to test homogeneity in correlation matrices. Using simulation studies, we demonstrate that the robust resampling approach provides comparable or superior performance, relative to traditional approaches, for single testing and reasonable performance for multiple testing. The proposed methods are applied to data collected in an HIV vaccine trial to investigate possible determinants, including vaccine status, vaccine-induced immune response level and viral genotype, of unusual correlation pattern between HIV viral load and CD4 count in newly infected patients.

  18. Conditional Monthly Weather Resampling Procedure for Operational Seasonal Water Resources Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckers, J.; Weerts, A.; Tijdeman, E.; Welles, E.; McManamon, A.

    2013-12-01

    To provide reliable and accurate seasonal streamflow forecasts for water resources management several operational hydrologic agencies and hydropower companies around the world use the Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) procedure. The ESP in its original implementation does not accommodate for any additional information that the forecaster may have about expected deviations from climatology in the near future. Several attempts have been conducted to improve the skill of the ESP forecast, especially for areas which are affected by teleconnetions (e,g. ENSO, PDO) via selection (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 1999) or weighting schemes (Werner et al., 2004; Wood and Lettenmaier, 2006; Najafi et al., 2012). A disadvantage of such schemes is that they lead to a reduction of the signal to noise ratio of the probabilistic forecast. To overcome this, we propose a resampling method conditional on climate indices to generate meteorological time series to be used in the ESP. The method can be used to generate a large number of meteorological ensemble members in order to improve the statistical properties of the ensemble. The effectiveness of the method was demonstrated in a real-time operational hydrologic seasonal forecasts system for the Columbia River basin operated by the Bonneville Power Administration. The forecast skill of the k-nn resampler was tested against the original ESP for three basins at the long-range seasonal time scale. The BSS and CRPSS were used to compare the results to those of the original ESP method. Positive forecast skill scores were found for the resampler method conditioned on different indices for the prediction of spring peak flows in the Dworshak and Hungry Horse basin. For the Libby Dam basin however, no improvement of skill was found. The proposed resampling method is a promising practical approach that can add skill to ESP forecasts at the seasonal time scale. Further improvement is possible by fine tuning the method and selecting the most

  19. Bootstrap resampling: a powerful method of assessing confidence intervals for doses from experimental data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwi, G.; Millard, R.K.; Palmer, A.M.; Preece, A.W.; Saunders, M.

    1999-01-01

    Bootstrap resampling provides a versatile and reliable statistical method for estimating the accuracy of quantities which are calculated from experimental data. It is an empirically based method, in which large numbers of simulated datasets are generated by computer from existing measurements, so that approximate confidence intervals of the derived quantities may be obtained by direct numerical evaluation. A simple introduction to the method is given via a detailed example of estimating 95% confidence intervals for cumulated activity in the thyroid following injection of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate using activity-time data from 23 subjects. The application of the approach to estimating confidence limits for the self-dose to the kidney following injection of 99m Tc-DTPA organ imaging agent based on uptake data from 19 subjects is also illustrated. Results are then given for estimates of doses to the foetus following administration of 99m Tc-sodium pertechnetate for clinical reasons during pregnancy, averaged over 25 subjects. The bootstrap method is well suited for applications in radiation dosimetry including uncertainty, reliability and sensitivity analysis of dose coefficients in biokinetic models, but it can also be applied in a wide range of other biomedical situations. (author)

  20. Post-model selection inference and model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Nguefack-Tsague

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.

  1. Spatial Quality Evaluation of Resampled Unmanned Aerial Vehicle-Imagery for Weed Mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borra-Serrano, Irene; Peña, José Manuel; Torres-Sánchez, Jorge; Mesas-Carrascosa, Francisco Javier; López-Granados, Francisca

    2015-08-12

    Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) combined with different spectral range sensors are an emerging technology for providing early weed maps for optimizing herbicide applications. Considering that weeds, at very early phenological stages, are similar spectrally and in appearance, three major components are relevant: spatial resolution, type of sensor and classification algorithm. Resampling is a technique to create a new version of an image with a different width and/or height in pixels, and it has been used in satellite imagery with different spatial and temporal resolutions. In this paper, the efficiency of resampled-images (RS-images) created from real UAV-images (UAV-images; the UAVs were equipped with two types of sensors, i.e., visible and visible plus near-infrared spectra) captured at different altitudes is examined to test the quality of the RS-image output. The performance of the object-based-image-analysis (OBIA) implemented for the early weed mapping using different weed thresholds was also evaluated. Our results showed that resampling accurately extracted the spectral values from high spatial resolution UAV-images at an altitude of 30 m and the RS-image data at altitudes of 60 and 100 m, was able to provide accurate weed cover and herbicide application maps compared with UAV-images from real flights.

  2. ROSETTA-ORBITER SW RPCMAG 4 CR2 RESAMPLED V3.0

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — 2010-07-30 SBN:T.Barnes Updated and DATA_SET_DESCThis dataset contains RESAMPLED DATA of the CRUISE 2 phase (CR2). (Version 3.0 is the first version archived.)

  3. Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

    2016-01-01

    We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

  4. Reproducing multi-model ensemble average with Ensemble-averaged Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) in regional climate modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erfanian, A.; Fomenko, L.; Wang, G.

    2016-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble (MME) average is considered the most reliable for simulating both present-day and future climates. It has been a primary reference for making conclusions in major coordinated studies i.e. IPCC Assessment Reports and CORDEX. The biases of individual models cancel out each other in MME average, enabling the ensemble mean to outperform individual members in simulating the mean climate. This enhancement however comes with tremendous computational cost, which is especially inhibiting for regional climate modeling as model uncertainties can originate from both RCMs and the driving GCMs. Here we propose the Ensemble-based Reconstructed Forcings (ERF) approach to regional climate modeling that achieves a similar level of bias reduction at a fraction of cost compared with the conventional MME approach. The new method constructs a single set of initial and boundary conditions (IBCs) by averaging the IBCs of multiple GCMs, and drives the RCM with this ensemble average of IBCs to conduct a single run. Using a regional climate model (RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5), we tested the method over West Africa for multiple combination of (up to six) GCMs. Our results indicate that the performance of the ERF method is comparable to that of the MME average in simulating the mean climate. The bias reduction seen in ERF simulations is achieved by using more realistic IBCs in solving the system of equations underlying the RCM physics and dynamics. This endows the new method with a theoretical advantage in addition to reducing computational cost. The ERF output is an unaltered solution of the RCM as opposed to a climate state that might not be physically plausible due to the averaging of multiple solutions with the conventional MME approach. The ERF approach should be considered for use in major international efforts such as CORDEX. Key words: Multi-model ensemble, ensemble analysis, ERF, regional climate modeling

  5. Low Computational Signal Acquisition for GNSS Receivers Using a Resampling Strategy and Variable Circular Correlation Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeqing Zhang

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available For the objective of essentially decreasing computational complexity and time consumption of signal acquisition, this paper explores a resampling strategy and variable circular correlation time strategy specific to broadband multi-frequency GNSS receivers. In broadband GNSS receivers, the resampling strategy is established to work on conventional acquisition algorithms by resampling the main lobe of received broadband signals with a much lower frequency. Variable circular correlation time is designed to adapt to different signal strength conditions and thereby increase the operation flexibility of GNSS signal acquisition. The acquisition threshold is defined as the ratio of the highest and second highest correlation results in the search space of carrier frequency and code phase. Moreover, computational complexity of signal acquisition is formulated by amounts of multiplication and summation operations in the acquisition process. Comparative experiments and performance analysis are conducted on four sets of real GPS L2C signals with different sampling frequencies. The results indicate that the resampling strategy can effectively decrease computation and time cost by nearly 90–94% with just slight loss of acquisition sensitivity. With circular correlation time varying from 10 ms to 20 ms, the time cost of signal acquisition has increased by about 2.7–5.6% per millisecond, with most satellites acquired successfully.

  6. Low Computational Signal Acquisition for GNSS Receivers Using a Resampling Strategy and Variable Circular Correlation Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yeqing; Wang, Meiling; Li, Yafeng

    2018-01-01

    For the objective of essentially decreasing computational complexity and time consumption of signal acquisition, this paper explores a resampling strategy and variable circular correlation time strategy specific to broadband multi-frequency GNSS receivers. In broadband GNSS receivers, the resampling strategy is established to work on conventional acquisition algorithms by resampling the main lobe of received broadband signals with a much lower frequency. Variable circular correlation time is designed to adapt to different signal strength conditions and thereby increase the operation flexibility of GNSS signal acquisition. The acquisition threshold is defined as the ratio of the highest and second highest correlation results in the search space of carrier frequency and code phase. Moreover, computational complexity of signal acquisition is formulated by amounts of multiplication and summation operations in the acquisition process. Comparative experiments and performance analysis are conducted on four sets of real GPS L2C signals with different sampling frequencies. The results indicate that the resampling strategy can effectively decrease computation and time cost by nearly 90–94% with just slight loss of acquisition sensitivity. With circular correlation time varying from 10 ms to 20 ms, the time cost of signal acquisition has increased by about 2.7–5.6% per millisecond, with most satellites acquired successfully. PMID:29495301

  7. A steady-State Genetic Algorithm with Resampling for Noisy Inventory Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prestwich, S.; Tarim, S.A.; Rossi, R.; Hnich, B.

    2008-01-01

    Noisy fitness functions occur in many practical applications of evolutionary computation. A standard technique for solving these problems is fitness resampling but this may be inefficient or need a large population, and combined with elitism it may overvalue chromosomes or reduce genetic diversity.

  8. Optimal resampling for the noisy OneMax problem

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Jialin; Fairbank, Michael; Pérez-Liébana, Diego; Lucas, Simon M.

    2016-01-01

    The OneMax problem is a standard benchmark optimisation problem for a binary search space. Recent work on applying a Bandit-Based Random Mutation Hill-Climbing algorithm to the noisy OneMax Problem showed that it is important to choose a good value for the resampling number to make a careful trade off between taking more samples in order to reduce noise, and taking fewer samples to reduce the total computational cost. This paper extends that observation, by deriving an analytical expression f...

  9. A Resampling-Based Stochastic Approximation Method for Analysis of Large Geostatistical Data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Cheng, Yichen; Song, Qifan; Park, Jincheol; Yang, Ping

    2013-01-01

    large number of observations. This article proposes a resampling-based stochastic approximation method to address this challenge. At each iteration of the proposed method, a small subsample is drawn from the full dataset, and then the current estimate

  10. System health monitoring using multiple-model adaptive estimation techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sifford, Stanley Ryan

    Monitoring system health for fault detection and diagnosis by tracking system parameters concurrently with state estimates is approached using a new multiple-model adaptive estimation (MMAE) method. This novel method is called GRid-based Adaptive Parameter Estimation (GRAPE). GRAPE expands existing MMAE methods by using new techniques to sample the parameter space. GRAPE expands on MMAE with the hypothesis that sample models can be applied and resampled without relying on a predefined set of models. GRAPE is initially implemented in a linear framework using Kalman filter models. A more generalized GRAPE formulation is presented using extended Kalman filter (EKF) models to represent nonlinear systems. GRAPE can handle both time invariant and time varying systems as it is designed to track parameter changes. Two techniques are presented to generate parameter samples for the parallel filter models. The first approach is called selected grid-based stratification (SGBS). SGBS divides the parameter space into equally spaced strata. The second approach uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) to determine the parameter locations and minimize the total number of required models. LHS is particularly useful when the parameter dimensions grow. Adding more parameters does not require the model count to increase for LHS. Each resample is independent of the prior sample set other than the location of the parameter estimate. SGBS and LHS can be used for both the initial sample and subsequent resamples. Furthermore, resamples are not required to use the same technique. Both techniques are demonstrated for both linear and nonlinear frameworks. The GRAPE framework further formalizes the parameter tracking process through a general approach for nonlinear systems. These additional methods allow GRAPE to either narrow the focus to converged values within a parameter range or expand the range in the appropriate direction to track the parameters outside the current parameter range boundary

  11. On removing interpolation and resampling artifacts in rigid image registration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aganj, Iman; Yeo, Boon Thye Thomas; Sabuncu, Mert R; Fischl, Bruce

    2013-02-01

    We show that image registration using conventional interpolation and summation approximations of continuous integrals can generally fail because of resampling artifacts. These artifacts negatively affect the accuracy of registration by producing local optima, altering the gradient, shifting the global optimum, and making rigid registration asymmetric. In this paper, after an extensive literature review, we demonstrate the causes of the artifacts by comparing inclusion and avoidance of resampling analytically. We show the sum-of-squared-differences cost function formulated as an integral to be more accurate compared with its traditional sum form in a simple case of image registration. We then discuss aliasing that occurs in rotation, which is due to the fact that an image represented in the Cartesian grid is sampled with different rates in different directions, and propose the use of oscillatory isotropic interpolation kernels, which allow better recovery of true global optima by overcoming this type of aliasing. Through our experiments on brain, fingerprint, and white noise images, we illustrate the superior performance of the integral registration cost function in both the Cartesian and spherical coordinates, and also validate the introduced radial interpolation kernel by demonstrating the improvement in registration.

  12. PERFORMANCE COMPARISON OF SCENARIO-GENERATION METHODS APPLIED TO A STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION ASSET-LIABILITY MANAGEMENT MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan Delgado de Oliveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT In this paper, we provide an empirical discussion of the differences among some scenario tree-generation approaches for stochastic programming. We consider the classical Monte Carlo sampling and Moment matching methods. Moreover, we test the Resampled average approximation, which is an adaptation of Monte Carlo sampling and Monte Carlo with naive allocation strategy as the benchmark. We test the empirical effects of each approach on the stability of the problem objective function and initial portfolio allocation, using a multistage stochastic chance-constrained asset-liability management (ALM model as the application. The Moment matching and Resampled average approximation are more stable than the other two strategies.

  13. MapReduce particle filtering with exact resampling and deterministic runtime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiyagalingam, Jeyarajan; Kekempanos, Lykourgos; Maskell, Simon

    2017-12-01

    Particle filtering is a numerical Bayesian technique that has great potential for solving sequential estimation problems involving non-linear and non-Gaussian models. Since the estimation accuracy achieved by particle filters improves as the number of particles increases, it is natural to consider as many particles as possible. MapReduce is a generic programming model that makes it possible to scale a wide variety of algorithms to Big data. However, despite the application of particle filters across many domains, little attention has been devoted to implementing particle filters using MapReduce. In this paper, we describe an implementation of a particle filter using MapReduce. We focus on a component that what would otherwise be a bottleneck to parallel execution, the resampling component. We devise a new implementation of this component, which requires no approximations, has O( N) spatial complexity and deterministic O((log N)2) time complexity. Results demonstrate the utility of this new component and culminate in consideration of a particle filter with 224 particles being distributed across 512 processor cores.

  14. Bayesian model averaging and weighted average least squares : Equivariance, stability, and numerical issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Luca, G.; Magnus, J.R.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe the estimation of linear regression models with uncertainty about the choice of the explanatory variables. We introduce the Stata commands bma and wals, which implement, respectively, the exact Bayesian model-averaging estimator and the weighted-average least-squares

  15. Bias-Corrected Estimation of Noncentrality Parameters of Covariance Structure Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raykov, Tenko

    2005-01-01

    A bias-corrected estimator of noncentrality parameters of covariance structure models is discussed. The approach represents an application of the bootstrap methodology for purposes of bias correction, and utilizes the relation between average of resample conventional noncentrality parameter estimates and their sample counterpart. The…

  16. On uniform resampling and gaze analysis of bidirectional texture functions

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Filip, Jiří; Chantler, M.J.; Haindl, Michal

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 6, č. 3 (2009), s. 1-15 ISSN 1544-3558 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572; GA ČR GA102/08/0593 Grant - others:EC Marie Curie(BE) 41358 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : BTF * texture * eye tracking Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 1.447, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/RO/haindl-on uniform resampling and gaze analysis of bidirectional texture functions.pdf

  17. Model averaging, optimal inference and habit formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H B FitzGerald

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Postulating that the brain performs approximate Bayesian inference generates principled and empirically testable models of neuronal function – the subject of much current interest in neuroscience and related disciplines. Current formulations address inference and learning under some assumed and particular model. In reality, organisms are often faced with an additional challenge – that of determining which model or models of their environment are the best for guiding behaviour. Bayesian model averaging – which says that an agent should weight the predictions of different models according to their evidence – provides a principled way to solve this problem. Importantly, because model evidence is determined by both the accuracy and complexity of the model, optimal inference requires that these be traded off against one another. This means an agent’s behaviour should show an equivalent balance. We hypothesise that Bayesian model averaging plays an important role in cognition, given that it is both optimal and realisable within a plausible neuronal architecture. We outline model averaging and how it might be implemented, and then explore a number of implications for brain and behaviour. In particular, we propose that model averaging can explain a number of apparently suboptimal phenomena within the framework of approximate (bounded Bayesian inference, focussing particularly upon the relationship between goal-directed and habitual behaviour.

  18. A resampling-based meta-analysis for detection of differential gene expression in breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gur-Dedeoglu, Bala; Konu, Ozlen; Kir, Serkan; Ozturk, Ahmet Rasit; Bozkurt, Betul; Ergul, Gulusan; Yulug, Isik G

    2008-01-01

    Accuracy in the diagnosis of breast cancer and classification of cancer subtypes has improved over the years with the development of well-established immunohistopathological criteria. More recently, diagnostic gene-sets at the mRNA expression level have been tested as better predictors of disease state. However, breast cancer is heterogeneous in nature; thus extraction of differentially expressed gene-sets that stably distinguish normal tissue from various pathologies poses challenges. Meta-analysis of high-throughput expression data using a collection of statistical methodologies leads to the identification of robust tumor gene expression signatures. A resampling-based meta-analysis strategy, which involves the use of resampling and application of distribution statistics in combination to assess the degree of significance in differential expression between sample classes, was developed. Two independent microarray datasets that contain normal breast, invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC), and invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) samples were used for the meta-analysis. Expression of the genes, selected from the gene list for classification of normal breast samples and breast tumors encompassing both the ILC and IDC subtypes were tested on 10 independent primary IDC samples and matched non-tumor controls by real-time qRT-PCR. Other existing breast cancer microarray datasets were used in support of the resampling-based meta-analysis. The two independent microarray studies were found to be comparable, although differing in their experimental methodologies (Pearson correlation coefficient, R = 0.9389 and R = 0.8465 for ductal and lobular samples, respectively). The resampling-based meta-analysis has led to the identification of a highly stable set of genes for classification of normal breast samples and breast tumors encompassing both the ILC and IDC subtypes. The expression results of the selected genes obtained through real-time qRT-PCR supported the meta-analysis results. The

  19. A resampling-based meta-analysis for detection of differential gene expression in breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ergul Gulusan

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Accuracy in the diagnosis of breast cancer and classification of cancer subtypes has improved over the years with the development of well-established immunohistopathological criteria. More recently, diagnostic gene-sets at the mRNA expression level have been tested as better predictors of disease state. However, breast cancer is heterogeneous in nature; thus extraction of differentially expressed gene-sets that stably distinguish normal tissue from various pathologies poses challenges. Meta-analysis of high-throughput expression data using a collection of statistical methodologies leads to the identification of robust tumor gene expression signatures. Methods A resampling-based meta-analysis strategy, which involves the use of resampling and application of distribution statistics in combination to assess the degree of significance in differential expression between sample classes, was developed. Two independent microarray datasets that contain normal breast, invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC, and invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC samples were used for the meta-analysis. Expression of the genes, selected from the gene list for classification of normal breast samples and breast tumors encompassing both the ILC and IDC subtypes were tested on 10 independent primary IDC samples and matched non-tumor controls by real-time qRT-PCR. Other existing breast cancer microarray datasets were used in support of the resampling-based meta-analysis. Results The two independent microarray studies were found to be comparable, although differing in their experimental methodologies (Pearson correlation coefficient, R = 0.9389 and R = 0.8465 for ductal and lobular samples, respectively. The resampling-based meta-analysis has led to the identification of a highly stable set of genes for classification of normal breast samples and breast tumors encompassing both the ILC and IDC subtypes. The expression results of the selected genes obtained through real

  20. Geographic Gossip: Efficient Averaging for Sensor Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimakis, Alexandros D. G.; Sarwate, Anand D.; Wainwright, Martin J.

    Gossip algorithms for distributed computation are attractive due to their simplicity, distributed nature, and robustness in noisy and uncertain environments. However, using standard gossip algorithms can lead to a significant waste in energy by repeatedly recirculating redundant information. For realistic sensor network model topologies like grids and random geometric graphs, the inefficiency of gossip schemes is related to the slow mixing times of random walks on the communication graph. We propose and analyze an alternative gossiping scheme that exploits geographic information. By utilizing geographic routing combined with a simple resampling method, we demonstrate substantial gains over previously proposed gossip protocols. For regular graphs such as the ring or grid, our algorithm improves standard gossip by factors of $n$ and $\\sqrt{n}$ respectively. For the more challenging case of random geometric graphs, our algorithm computes the true average to accuracy $\\epsilon$ using $O(\\frac{n^{1.5}}{\\sqrt{\\log n}} \\log \\epsilon^{-1})$ radio transmissions, which yields a $\\sqrt{\\frac{n}{\\log n}}$ factor improvement over standard gossip algorithms. We illustrate these theoretical results with experimental comparisons between our algorithm and standard methods as applied to various classes of random fields.

  1. Assessment of Resampling Methods for Causality Testing: A note on the US Inflation Behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Papana, A.; Kyrtsou, C.; Kugiumtzis, D.; Diks, C.

    2017-01-01

    Different resampling methods for the null hypothesis of no Granger causality are assessed in the setting of multivariate time series, taking into account that the driving-response coupling is conditioned on the other observed variables. As appropriate test statistic for this setting, the partial

  2. Simultaneous inference for model averaging of derived parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Signe Marie; Ritz, Christian

    2015-01-01

    Model averaging is a useful approach for capturing uncertainty due to model selection. Currently, this uncertainty is often quantified by means of approximations that do not easily extend to simultaneous inference. Moreover, in practice there is a need for both model averaging and simultaneous...... inference for derived parameters calculated in an after-fitting step. We propose a method for obtaining asymptotically correct standard errors for one or several model-averaged estimates of derived parameters and for obtaining simultaneous confidence intervals that asymptotically control the family...

  3. Resampling Approach for Determination of the Method for Reference Interval Calculation in Clinical Laboratory Practice▿

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlov, Igor Y.; Wilson, Andrew R.; Delgado, Julio C.

    2010-01-01

    Reference intervals (RI) play a key role in clinical interpretation of laboratory test results. Numerous articles are devoted to analyzing and discussing various methods of RI determination. The two most widely used approaches are the parametric method, which assumes data normality, and a nonparametric, rank-based procedure. The decision about which method to use is usually made arbitrarily. The goal of this study was to demonstrate that using a resampling approach for the comparison of RI determination techniques could help researchers select the right procedure. Three methods of RI calculation—parametric, transformed parametric, and quantile-based bootstrapping—were applied to multiple random samples drawn from 81 values of complement factor B observations and from a computer-simulated normally distributed population. It was shown that differences in RI between legitimate methods could be up to 20% and even more. The transformed parametric method was found to be the best method for the calculation of RI of non-normally distributed factor B estimations, producing an unbiased RI and the lowest confidence limits and interquartile ranges. For a simulated Gaussian population, parametric calculations, as expected, were the best; quantile-based bootstrapping produced biased results at low sample sizes, and the transformed parametric method generated heavily biased RI. The resampling approach could help compare different RI calculation methods. An algorithm showing a resampling procedure for choosing the appropriate method for RI calculations is included. PMID:20554803

  4. Constructive Epistemic Modeling: A Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, F. T. C.; Elshall, A. S.

    2014-12-01

    Constructive epistemic modeling is the idea that our understanding of a natural system through a scientific model is a mental construct that continually develops through learning about and from the model. Using the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method [1], this study shows that segregating different uncertain model components through a BMA tree of posterior model probabilities, model prediction, within-model variance, between-model variance and total model variance serves as a learning tool [2]. First, the BMA tree of posterior model probabilities permits the comparative evaluation of the candidate propositions of each uncertain model component. Second, systemic model dissection is imperative for understanding the individual contribution of each uncertain model component to the model prediction and variance. Third, the hierarchical representation of the between-model variance facilitates the prioritization of the contribution of each uncertain model component to the overall model uncertainty. We illustrate these concepts using the groundwater modeling of a siliciclastic aquifer-fault system. The sources of uncertainty considered are from geological architecture, formation dip, boundary conditions and model parameters. The study shows that the HBMA analysis helps in advancing knowledge about the model rather than forcing the model to fit a particularly understanding or merely averaging several candidate models. [1] Tsai, F. T.-C., and A. S. Elshall (2013), Hierarchical Bayesian model averaging for hydrostratigraphic modeling: Uncertainty segregation and comparative evaluation. Water Resources Research, 49, 5520-5536, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20428. [2] Elshall, A.S., and F. T.-C. Tsai (2014). Constructive epistemic modeling of groundwater flow with geological architecture and boundary condition uncertainty under Bayesian paradigm, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 105-119, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.027.

  5. Confidence Limits for the Indirect Effect: Distribution of the Product and Resampling Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKinnon, David P.; Lockwood, Chondra M.; Williams, Jason

    2010-01-01

    The most commonly used method to test an indirect effect is to divide the estimate of the indirect effect by its standard error and compare the resulting z statistic with a critical value from the standard normal distribution. Confidence limits for the indirect effect are also typically based on critical values from the standard normal distribution. This article uses a simulation study to demonstrate that confidence limits are imbalanced because the distribution of the indirect effect is normal only in special cases. Two alternatives for improving the performance of confidence limits for the indirect effect are evaluated: (a) a method based on the distribution of the product of two normal random variables, and (b) resampling methods. In Study 1, confidence limits based on the distribution of the product are more accurate than methods based on an assumed normal distribution but confidence limits are still imbalanced. Study 2 demonstrates that more accurate confidence limits are obtained using resampling methods, with the bias-corrected bootstrap the best method overall. PMID:20157642

  6. Using vis-NIR to predict soil organic carbon and clay at national scale: validation of geographically closest resampling strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peng, Yi; Knadel, Maria; Greve, Mette Balslev

    2016-01-01

    geographically closest sampling points. The SOC prediction resulted in R2: 0.76; RMSE: 4.02 %; RPD: 1.59; RPIQ: 0.35. The results for clay prediction were also successful (R2: 0.84; RMSE: 2.36 %; RPD: 2.35; RPIQ: 2.88). For SOC predictions, over 90% of soil samples were well predicted compared...... samples) for soils from each 7-km grid sampling point in the country. In the resampling and modelling process, each target sample was predicted by a specific model which was calibrated using geographically closest soil spectra. The geographically closest 20, 30, 40, and 50 sampling points (profiles) were...

  7. Accurate phenotyping: Reconciling approaches through Bayesian model averaging.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Chia-Ming Chen

    Full Text Available Genetic research into complex diseases is frequently hindered by a lack of clear biomarkers for phenotype ascertainment. Phenotypes for such diseases are often identified on the basis of clinically defined criteria; however such criteria may not be suitable for understanding the genetic composition of the diseases. Various statistical approaches have been proposed for phenotype definition; however our previous studies have shown that differences in phenotypes estimated using different approaches have substantial impact on subsequent analyses. Instead of obtaining results based upon a single model, we propose a new method, using Bayesian model averaging to overcome problems associated with phenotype definition. Although Bayesian model averaging has been used in other fields of research, this is the first study that uses Bayesian model averaging to reconcile phenotypes obtained using multiple models. We illustrate the new method by applying it to simulated genetic and phenotypic data for Kofendred personality disorder-an imaginary disease with several sub-types. Two separate statistical methods were used to identify clusters of individuals with distinct phenotypes: latent class analysis and grade of membership. Bayesian model averaging was then used to combine the two clusterings for the purpose of subsequent linkage analyses. We found that causative genetic loci for the disease produced higher LOD scores using model averaging than under either individual model separately. We attribute this improvement to consolidation of the cores of phenotype clusters identified using each individual method.

  8. Average Bandwidth Allocation Model of WFQ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Balogh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a new iterative method for the calculation of average bandwidth assignment to traffic flows using a WFQ scheduler in IP based NGN networks. The bandwidth assignment calculation is based on the link speed, assigned weights, arrival rate, and average packet length or input rate of the traffic flows. We prove the model outcome with examples and simulation results using NS2 simulator.

  9. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam's Window.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E

    2016-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam's window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.

  10. Resampling nucleotide sequences with closest-neighbor trimming and its comparison to other methods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kouki Yonezawa

    Full Text Available A large number of nucleotide sequences of various pathogens are available in public databases. The growth of the datasets has resulted in an enormous increase in computational costs. Moreover, due to differences in surveillance activities, the number of sequences found in databases varies from one country to another and from year to year. Therefore, it is important to study resampling methods to reduce the sampling bias. A novel algorithm-called the closest-neighbor trimming method-that resamples a given number of sequences from a large nucleotide sequence dataset was proposed. The performance of the proposed algorithm was compared with other algorithms by using the nucleotide sequences of human H3N2 influenza viruses. We compared the closest-neighbor trimming method with the naive hierarchical clustering algorithm and [Formula: see text]-medoids clustering algorithm. Genetic information accumulated in public databases contains sampling bias. The closest-neighbor trimming method can thin out densely sampled sequences from a given dataset. Since nucleotide sequences are among the most widely used materials for life sciences, we anticipate that our algorithm to various datasets will result in reducing sampling bias.

  11. Estimating variability in functional images using a synthetic resampling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maitra, R.; O'Sullivan, F.

    1996-01-01

    Functional imaging of biologic parameters like in vivo tissue metabolism is made possible by Positron Emission Tomography (PET). Many techniques, such as mixture analysis, have been suggested for extracting such images from dynamic sequences of reconstructed PET scans. Methods for assessing the variability in these functional images are of scientific interest. The nonlinearity of the methods used in the mixture analysis approach makes analytic formulae for estimating variability intractable. The usual resampling approach is infeasible because of the prohibitive computational effort in simulating a number of sinogram. datasets, applying image reconstruction, and generating parametric images for each replication. Here we introduce an approach that approximates the distribution of the reconstructed PET images by a Gaussian random field and generates synthetic realizations in the imaging domain. This eliminates the reconstruction steps in generating each simulated functional image and is therefore practical. Results of experiments done to evaluate the approach on a model one-dimensional problem are very encouraging. Post-processing of the estimated variances is seen to improve the accuracy of the estimation method. Mixture analysis is used to estimate functional images; however, the suggested approach is general enough to extend to other parametric imaging methods

  12. Average inactivity time model, associated orderings and reliability properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayid, M.; Izadkhah, S.; Abouammoh, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we introduce and study a new model called 'average inactivity time model'. This new model is specifically applicable to handle the heterogeneity of the time of the failure of a system in which some inactive items exist. We provide some bounds for the mean average inactivity time of a lifespan unit. In addition, we discuss some dependence structures between the average variable and the mixing variable in the model when original random variable possesses some aging behaviors. Based on the conception of the new model, we introduce and study a new stochastic order. Finally, to illustrate the concept of the model, some interesting reliability problems are reserved.

  13. A New Method to Implement Resampled Uniform PWM Suitable for Distributed Control of Modular Multilevel Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huang, Shaojun; Mathe, Laszlo; Teodorescu, Remus

    2013-01-01

    Two existing methods to implement resampling modulation technique for modular multilevel converter (MMC) (the sampling frequency is a multiple of the carrier frequency) are: the software solution (using a microcontroller) and the hardware solution (using FPGA). The former has a certain level...

  14. Use of a 137Cs re-sampling technique to investigate temporal changes in soil erosion and sediment mobilisation for a small forested catchment in southern Italy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E.; Alewell, Christine; Callegari, Giovanni; Mabit, Lionel; Mallimo, Nicola; Meusburger, Katrin; Zehringer, Markus

    2014-01-01

    Soil erosion and both its on-site and off-site impacts are increasingly seen as a serious environmental problem across the world. The need for an improved evidence base on soil loss and soil redistribution rates has directed attention to the use of fallout radionuclides, and particularly 137 Cs, for documenting soil redistribution rates. This approach possesses important advantages over more traditional means of documenting soil erosion and soil redistribution. However, one key limitation of the approach is the time-averaged or lumped nature of the estimated erosion rates. In nearly all cases, these will relate to the period extending from the main period of bomb fallout to the time of sampling. Increasing concern for the impact of global change, particularly that related to changing land use and climate change, has frequently directed attention to the need to document changes in soil redistribution rates within this period. Re-sampling techniques, which should be distinguished from repeat-sampling techniques, have the potential to meet this requirement. As an example, the use of a re-sampling technique to derive estimates of the mean annual net soil loss from a small (1.38 ha) forested catchment in southern Italy is reported. The catchment was originally sampled in 1998 and samples were collected from points very close to the original sampling points again in 2013. This made it possible to compare the estimate of mean annual erosion for the period 1954–1998 with that for the period 1999–2013. The availability of measurements of sediment yield from the catchment for parts of the overall period made it possible to compare the results provided by the 137 Cs re-sampling study with the estimates of sediment yield for the same periods. In order to compare the estimates of soil loss and sediment yield for the two different periods, it was necessary to establish the uncertainty associated with the individual estimates. In the absence of a generally accepted procedure

  15. Dynamic Model Averaging in Large Model Spaces Using Dynamic Occam’s Window*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onorante, Luca; Raftery, Adrian E.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam’s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods. PMID:26917859

  16. Comparison of power pulses from homogeneous and time-average-equivalent models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De, T.K.; Rouben, B.

    1995-01-01

    The time-average-equivalent model is an 'instantaneous' core model designed to reproduce the same three dimensional power distribution as that generated by a time-average model. However it has been found that the time-average-equivalent model gives a full-core static void reactivity about 8% smaller than the time-average or homogeneous models. To investigate the consequences of this difference in static void reactivity in time dependent calculations, simulations of the power pulse following a hypothetical large-loss-of-coolant accident were performed with a homogeneous model and compared with the power pulse from the time-average-equivalent model. The results show that there is a much smaller difference in peak dynamic reactivity than in static void reactivity between the two models. This is attributed to the fact that voiding is not complete, but also to the retardation effect of the delayed-neutron precursors on the dynamic flux shape. The difference in peak reactivity between the models is 0.06 milli-k. The power pulses are essentially the same in the two models, because the delayed-neutron fraction in the time-average-equivalent model is lower than in the homogeneous model, which compensates for the lower void reactivity in the time-average-equivalent model. (author). 1 ref., 5 tabs., 9 figs

  17. Bayesian Model Averaging of Artificial Intelligence Models for Hydraulic Conductivity Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadiri, A.; Chitsazan, N.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.

    2012-12-01

    This research presents a Bayesian artificial intelligence model averaging (BAIMA) method that incorporates multiple artificial intelligence (AI) models to estimate hydraulic conductivity and evaluate estimation uncertainties. Uncertainty in the AI model outputs stems from error in model input as well as non-uniqueness in selecting different AI methods. Using one single AI model tends to bias the estimation and underestimate uncertainty. BAIMA employs Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to address the issue of using one single AI model for estimation. BAIMA estimates hydraulic conductivity by averaging the outputs of AI models according to their model weights. In this study, the model weights were determined using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) that follows the parsimony principle. BAIMA calculates the within-model variances to account for uncertainty propagation from input data to AI model output. Between-model variances are evaluated to account for uncertainty due to model non-uniqueness. We employed Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy logic (TS-FL), artificial neural network (ANN) and neurofuzzy (NF) to estimate hydraulic conductivity for the Tasuj plain aquifer, Iran. BAIMA combined three AI models and produced better fitting than individual models. While NF was expected to be the best AI model owing to its utilization of both TS-FL and ANN models, the NF model is nearly discarded by the parsimony principle. The TS-FL model and the ANN model showed equal importance although their hydraulic conductivity estimates were quite different. This resulted in significant between-model variances that are normally ignored by using one AI model.

  18. Generalized Empirical Likelihood-Based Focused Information Criterion and Model Averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoya Sueishi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops model selection and averaging methods for moment restriction models. We first propose a focused information criterion based on the generalized empirical likelihood estimator. We address the issue of selecting an optimal model, rather than a correct model, for estimating a specific parameter of interest. Then, this study investigates a generalized empirical likelihood-based model averaging estimator that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error. A simulation study suggests that our averaging estimator can be a useful alternative to existing post-selection estimators.

  19. Evaluation of resampling applied to UAV imagery for weed detection using OBIA

    OpenAIRE

    Borra, I.; Peña Barragán, José Manuel; Torres Sánchez, Jorge; López Granados, Francisca

    2015-01-01

    Los vehículos aéreos no tripulados (UAVs) son una tecnología emergente en el estudio de parámetros agrícolas por sus características y por portar sensores en diferente rango espectral. En este trabajo se ha detectado y cartografiado rodales de malas hierbas en fase temprana mediante análisis OBIA para elaborar mapas que optimicen el tratamiento herbicida localizado. Se ha aplicado resampling (resampleo) sobre imágenes tomadas en campo desde un UAV (UAV-I) para crear una nueva imagen con disti...

  20. Yearly, seasonal and monthly daily average diffuse sky radiation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassem, A.S.; Mujahid, A.M.; Turner, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    A daily average diffuse sky radiation regression model based on daily global radiation was developed utilizing two year data taken near Blytheville, Arkansas (Lat. =35.9 0 N, Long. = 89.9 0 W), U.S.A. The model has a determination coefficient of 0.91 and 0.092 standard error of estimate. The data were also analyzed for a seasonal dependence and four seasonal average daily models were developed for the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. The coefficient of determination is 0.93, 0.81, 0.94 and 0.93, whereas the standard error of estimate is 0.08, 0.102, 0.042 and 0.075 for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. A monthly average daily diffuse sky radiation model was also developed. The coefficient of determination is 0.92 and the standard error of estimate is 0.083. A seasonal monthly average model was also developed which has 0.91 coefficient of determination and 0.085 standard error of estimate. The developed monthly daily average and daily models compare well with a selected number of previously developed models. (author). 11 ref., figs., tabs

  1. Methods of soil resampling to monitor changes in the chemical concentrations of forest soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Gregory B.; Fernandez, Ivan J.; Hazlett, Paul W.; Bailey, Scott W.; Ross, Donald S.; Villars, Thomas R.; Quintana, Angelica; Ouimet, Rock; McHale, Michael; Johnson, Chris E.; Briggs, Russell D.; Colter, Robert A.; Siemion, Jason; Bartlett, Olivia L.; Vargas, Olga; Antidormi, Michael; Koppers, Mary Margaret

    2016-01-01

    Recent soils research has shown that important chemical soil characteristics can change in less than a decade, often the result of broad environmental changes. Repeated sampling to monitor these changes in forest soils is a relatively new practice that is not well documented in the literature and has only recently been broadly embraced by the scientific community. The objective of this protocol is therefore to synthesize the latest information on methods of soil resampling in a format that can be used to design and implement a soil monitoring program. Successful monitoring of forest soils requires that a study unit be defined within an area of forested land that can be characterized with replicate sampling locations. A resampling interval of 5 years is recommended, but if monitoring is done to evaluate a specific environmental driver, the rate of change expected in that driver should be taken into consideration. Here, we show that the sampling of the profile can be done by horizon where boundaries can be clearly identified and horizons are sufficiently thick to remove soil without contamination from horizons above or below. Otherwise, sampling can be done by depth interval. Archiving of sample for future reanalysis is a key step in avoiding analytical bias and providing the opportunity for additional analyses as new questions arise.

  2. Methods of Soil Resampling to Monitor Changes in the Chemical Concentrations of Forest Soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, Gregory B; Fernandez, Ivan J; Hazlett, Paul W; Bailey, Scott W; Ross, Donald S; Villars, Thomas R; Quintana, Angelica; Ouimet, Rock; McHale, Michael R; Johnson, Chris E; Briggs, Russell D; Colter, Robert A; Siemion, Jason; Bartlett, Olivia L; Vargas, Olga; Antidormi, Michael R; Koppers, Mary M

    2016-11-25

    Recent soils research has shown that important chemical soil characteristics can change in less than a decade, often the result of broad environmental changes. Repeated sampling to monitor these changes in forest soils is a relatively new practice that is not well documented in the literature and has only recently been broadly embraced by the scientific community. The objective of this protocol is therefore to synthesize the latest information on methods of soil resampling in a format that can be used to design and implement a soil monitoring program. Successful monitoring of forest soils requires that a study unit be defined within an area of forested land that can be characterized with replicate sampling locations. A resampling interval of 5 years is recommended, but if monitoring is done to evaluate a specific environmental driver, the rate of change expected in that driver should be taken into consideration. Here, we show that the sampling of the profile can be done by horizon where boundaries can be clearly identified and horizons are sufficiently thick to remove soil without contamination from horizons above or below. Otherwise, sampling can be done by depth interval. Archiving of sample for future reanalysis is a key step in avoiding analytical bias and providing the opportunity for additional analyses as new questions arise.

  3. Averaging principle for second-order approximation of heterogeneous models with homogeneous models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fibich, Gadi; Gavious, Arieh; Solan, Eilon

    2012-11-27

    Typically, models with a heterogeneous property are considerably harder to analyze than the corresponding homogeneous models, in which the heterogeneous property is replaced by its average value. In this study we show that any outcome of a heterogeneous model that satisfies the two properties of differentiability and symmetry is O(ε(2)) equivalent to the outcome of the corresponding homogeneous model, where ε is the level of heterogeneity. We then use this averaging principle to obtain new results in queuing theory, game theory (auctions), and social networks (marketing).

  4. Averaging principle for second-order approximation of heterogeneous models with homogeneous models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fibich, Gadi; Gavious, Arieh; Solan, Eilon

    2012-01-01

    Typically, models with a heterogeneous property are considerably harder to analyze than the corresponding homogeneous models, in which the heterogeneous property is replaced by its average value. In this study we show that any outcome of a heterogeneous model that satisfies the two properties of differentiability and symmetry is O(ɛ2) equivalent to the outcome of the corresponding homogeneous model, where ɛ is the level of heterogeneity. We then use this averaging principle to obtain new results in queuing theory, game theory (auctions), and social networks (marketing). PMID:23150569

  5. A depth semi-averaged model for coastal dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antuono, M.; Colicchio, G.; Lugni, C.; Greco, M.; Brocchini, M.

    2017-05-01

    The present work extends the semi-integrated method proposed by Antuono and Brocchini ["Beyond Boussinesq-type equations: Semi-integrated models for coastal dynamics," Phys. Fluids 25(1), 016603 (2013)], which comprises a subset of depth-averaged equations (similar to Boussinesq-like models) and a Poisson equation that accounts for vertical dynamics. Here, the subset of depth-averaged equations has been reshaped in a conservative-like form and both the Poisson equation formulations proposed by Antuono and Brocchini ["Beyond Boussinesq-type equations: Semi-integrated models for coastal dynamics," Phys. Fluids 25(1), 016603 (2013)] are investigated: the former uses the vertical velocity component (formulation A) and the latter a specific depth semi-averaged variable, ϒ (formulation B). Our analyses reveal that formulation A is prone to instabilities as wave nonlinearity increases. On the contrary, formulation B allows an accurate, robust numerical implementation. Test cases derived from the scientific literature on Boussinesq-type models—i.e., solitary and Stokes wave analytical solutions for linear dispersion and nonlinear evolution and experimental data for shoaling properties—are used to assess the proposed solution strategy. It is found that the present method gives reliable predictions of wave propagation in shallow to intermediate waters, in terms of both semi-averaged variables and conservation properties.

  6. Speckle reduction in digital holography with resampling ring masks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wenhui; Cao, Liangcai; Jin, Guofan

    2018-01-01

    One-shot digital holographic imaging has the advantages of high stability and low temporal cost. However, the reconstruction is affected by the speckle noise. Resampling ring-mask method in spectrum domain is proposed for speckle reduction. The useful spectrum of one hologram is divided into several sub-spectra by ring masks. In the reconstruction, angular spectrum transform is applied to guarantee the calculation accuracy which has no approximation. N reconstructed amplitude images are calculated from the corresponding sub-spectra. Thanks to speckle's random distribution, superimposing these N uncorrelated amplitude images would lead to a final reconstructed image with lower speckle noise. Normalized relative standard deviation values of the reconstructed image are used to evaluate the reduction of speckle. Effect of the method on the spatial resolution of the reconstructed image is also quantitatively evaluated. Experimental and simulation results prove the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Analysis and comparison of safety models using average daily, average hourly, and microscopic traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Wang, Xuesong; Yu, Rongjie

    2018-02-01

    There have been plenty of traffic safety studies based on average daily traffic (ADT), average hourly traffic (AHT), or microscopic traffic at 5 min intervals. Nevertheless, not enough research has compared the performance of these three types of safety studies, and seldom of previous studies have intended to find whether the results of one type of study is transferable to the other two studies. First, this study built three models: a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the daily crash frequency using ADT, a Bayesian Poisson-lognormal model to estimate the hourly crash frequency using AHT, and a Bayesian logistic regression model for the real-time safety analysis using microscopic traffic. The model results showed that the crash contributing factors found by different models were comparable but not the same. Four variables, i.e., the logarithm of volume, the standard deviation of speed, the logarithm of segment length, and the existence of diverge segment, were positively significant in the three models. Additionally, weaving segments experienced higher daily and hourly crash frequencies than merge and basic segments. Then, each of the ADT-based, AHT-based, and real-time models was used to estimate safety conditions at different levels: daily and hourly, meanwhile, the real-time model was also used in 5 min intervals. The results uncovered that the ADT- and AHT-based safety models performed similar in predicting daily and hourly crash frequencies, and the real-time safety model was able to provide hourly crash frequency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

    2018-01-01

    This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

  9. A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Linda Vadgård; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis L.

    The class of moving average models offers a flexible modeling framework for Gaussian random fields with many well known models such as the Matérn covariance family and the Gaussian covariance falling under this framework. Moving average models may also be viewed as a kernel smoothing of a Lévy...... basis, a general modeling framework which includes several types of non-Gaussian models. We propose a new one-parameter spatial correlation model which arises from a power kernel and show that the associated Hausdorff dimension of the sample paths can take any value between 2 and 3. As a result...

  10. Essays on model averaging and political economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, W.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis first investigates various issues related with model averaging, and then evaluates two policies, i.e. West Development Drive in China and fiscal decentralization in U.S, using econometric tools. Chapter 2 proposes a hierarchical weighted least squares (HWALS) method to address multiple

  11. GI Joe or Average Joe? The impact of average-size and muscular male fashion models on men's and women's body image and advertisement effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Lee, Christina

    2010-06-01

    Increasing body size and shape diversity in media imagery may promote positive body image. While research has largely focused on female models and women's body image, men may also be affected by unrealistic images. We examined the impact of average-size and muscular male fashion models on men's and women's body image and perceived advertisement effectiveness. A sample of 330 men and 289 women viewed one of four advertisement conditions: no models, muscular, average-slim or average-large models. Men and women rated average-size models as equally effective in advertisements as muscular models. For men, exposure to average-size models was associated with more positive body image in comparison to viewing no models, but no difference was found in comparison to muscular models. Similar results were found for women. Internalisation of beauty ideals did not moderate these effects. These findings suggest that average-size male models can promote positive body image and appeal to consumers. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Transferability of hydrological models and ensemble averaging methods between contrasting climatic periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broderick, Ciaran; Matthews, Tom; Wilby, Robert L.; Bastola, Satish; Murphy, Conor

    2016-10-01

    Understanding hydrological model predictive capabilities under contrasting climate conditions enables more robust decision making. Using Differential Split Sample Testing (DSST), we analyze the performance of six hydrological models for 37 Irish catchments under climate conditions unlike those used for model training. Additionally, we consider four ensemble averaging techniques when examining interperiod transferability. DSST is conducted using 2/3 year noncontinuous blocks of (i) the wettest/driest years on record based on precipitation totals and (ii) years with a more/less pronounced seasonal precipitation regime. Model transferability between contrasting regimes was found to vary depending on the testing scenario, catchment, and evaluation criteria considered. As expected, the ensemble average outperformed most individual ensemble members. However, averaging techniques differed considerably in the number of times they surpassed the best individual model member. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and the Granger-Ramanathan Averaging (GRA) method were found to outperform the simple arithmetic mean (SAM) and Akaike Information Criteria Averaging (AICA). Here GRA performed better than the best individual model in 51%-86% of cases (according to the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion). When assessing model predictive skill under climate change conditions we recommend (i) setting up DSST to select the best available analogues of expected annual mean and seasonal climate conditions; (ii) applying multiple performance criteria; (iii) testing transferability using a diverse set of catchments; and (iv) using a multimodel ensemble in conjunction with an appropriate averaging technique. Given the computational efficiency and performance of GRA relative to BMA, the former is recommended as the preferred ensemble averaging technique for climate assessment.

  13. Research & development and growth: A Bayesian model averaging analysis

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Horváth, Roman

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 28, č. 6 (2011), s. 2669-2673 ISSN 0264-9993. [Society for Non-linear Dynamics and Econometrics Annual Conferencen. Washington DC, 16.03.2011-18.03.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Research and development * Growth * Bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: AH - Economic s Impact factor: 0.701, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/horvath-research & development and growth a bayesian model averaging analysis.pdf

  14. A Resampling-Based Stochastic Approximation Method for Analysis of Large Geostatistical Data

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2013-03-01

    The Gaussian geostatistical model has been widely used in modeling of spatial data. However, it is challenging to computationally implement this method because it requires the inversion of a large covariance matrix, particularly when there is a large number of observations. This article proposes a resampling-based stochastic approximation method to address this challenge. At each iteration of the proposed method, a small subsample is drawn from the full dataset, and then the current estimate of the parameters is updated accordingly under the framework of stochastic approximation. Since the proposed method makes use of only a small proportion of the data at each iteration, it avoids inverting large covariance matrices and thus is scalable to large datasets. The proposed method also leads to a general parameter estimation approach, maximum mean log-likelihood estimation, which includes the popular maximum (log)-likelihood estimation (MLE) approach as a special case and is expected to play an important role in analyzing large datasets. Under mild conditions, it is shown that the estimator resulting from the proposed method converges in probability to a set of parameter values of equivalent Gaussian probability measures, and that the estimator is asymptotically normally distributed. To the best of the authors\\' knowledge, the present study is the first one on asymptotic normality under infill asymptotics for general covariance functions. The proposed method is illustrated with large datasets, both simulated and real. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. © 2013 American Statistical Association.

  15. Application of Bayesian model averaging to measurements of the primordial power spectrum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, David; Liddle, Andrew R.

    2010-01-01

    Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for assessing parameter uncertainties in situations where there is also uncertainty in the underlying model. We apply model averaging to the estimation of the parameters associated with the primordial power spectra of curvature and tensor perturbations. We use CosmoNest and MultiNest to compute the model evidences and posteriors, using cosmic microwave data from WMAP, ACBAR, BOOMERanG, and CBI, plus large-scale structure data from the SDSS DR7. We find that the model-averaged 95% credible interval for the spectral index using all of the data is 0.940 s s is specified at a pivot scale 0.015 Mpc -1 . For the tensors model averaging can tighten the credible upper limit, depending on prior assumptions.

  16. Econometric modelling of Serbian current account determinants: Jackknife Model Averaging approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Predrag

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to model Serbian current account determinants for the period Q1 2002 - Q4 2012. Taking into account the majority of relevant determinants, using the Jackknife Model Averaging approach, 48 different models have been estimated, where 1254 equations needed to be estimated and averaged for each of the models. The results of selected representative models indicate moderate persistence of the CA and positive influence of: fiscal balance, oil trade balance, terms of trade, relative income and real effective exchange rates, where we should emphasise: (i a rather strong influence of relative income, (ii the fact that the worsening of oil trade balance results in worsening of other components (probably non-oil trade balance of CA and (iii that the positive influence of terms of trade reveals functionality of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect in Serbia. On the other hand, negative influence is evident in case of: relative economic growth, gross fixed capital formation, net foreign assets and trade openness. What particularly stands out is the strong effect of relative economic growth that, most likely, reveals high citizens' future income growth expectations, which has negative impact on the CA.

  17. Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2015-01-01

    We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

  18. Serpent-COREDAX analysis of CANDU-6 time-average model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Motalab, M.A.; Cho, B.; Kim, W.; Cho, N.Z.; Kim, Y., E-mail: yongheekim@kaist.ac.kr [Korea Advanced Inst. of Science and Technology (KAIST), Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-07-01

    COREDAX-2 is the nuclear core analysis nodal code that has adopted the Analytic Function Expansion Nodal (AFEN) methodology which has been developed in Korea. AFEN method outperforms in terms of accuracy compared to other conventional nodal methods. To evaluate the possibility of CANDU-type core analysis using the COREDAX-2, the time-average analysis code system was developed. The two-group homogenized cross-sections were calculated using Monte Carlo code, Serpent2. A stand-alone time-average module was developed to determine the time-average burnup distribution in the core for a given fuel management strategy. The coupled Serpent-COREDAX-2 calculation converges to an equilibrium time-average model for the CANDU-6 core. (author)

  19. A collisional-radiative average atom model for hot plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozsnyai, B.F.

    1996-01-01

    A collisional-radiative 'average atom' (AA) model is presented for the calculation of opacities of hot plasmas not in the condition of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE). The electron impact and radiative rate constants are calculated using the dipole oscillator strengths of the average atom. A key element of the model is the photon escape probability which at present is calculated for a semi infinite slab. The Fermi statistics renders the rate equation for the AA level occupancies nonlinear, which requires iterations until the steady state. AA level occupancies are found. Detailed electronic configurations are built into the model after the self-consistent non-LTE AA state is found. The model shows a continuous transition from the non-LTE to the LTE state depending on the optical thickness of the plasma. 22 refs., 13 figs., 1 tab

  20. Waif goodbye! Average-size female models promote positive body image and appeal to consumers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diedrichs, Phillippa C; Lee, Christina

    2011-10-01

    Despite consensus that exposure to media images of thin fashion models is associated with poor body image and disordered eating behaviours, few attempts have been made to enact change in the media. This study sought to investigate an effective alternative to current media imagery, by exploring the advertising effectiveness of average-size female fashion models, and their impact on the body image of both women and men. A sample of 171 women and 120 men were assigned to one of three advertisement conditions: no models, thin models and average-size models. Women and men rated average-size models as equally effective in advertisements as thin and no models. For women with average and high levels of internalisation of cultural beauty ideals, exposure to average-size female models was associated with a significantly more positive body image state in comparison to exposure to thin models and no models. For men reporting high levels of internalisation, exposure to average-size models was also associated with a more positive body image state in comparison to viewing thin models. These findings suggest that average-size female models can promote positive body image and appeal to consumers.

  1. Evidence on Features of a DSGE Business Cycle Model from Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is valuated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long-run responses, a structural break of unknown

  2. Using Bayes Model Averaging for Wind Power Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preede Revheim, Pål; Beyer, Hans Georg

    2014-05-01

    For operational purposes predictions of the forecasts of the lumped output of groups of wind farms spread over larger geographic areas will often be of interest. A naive approach is to make forecasts for each individual site and sum them up to get the group forecast. It is however well documented that a better choice is to use a model that also takes advantage of spatial smoothing effects. It might however be the case that some sites tends to more accurately reflect the total output of the region, either in general or for certain wind directions. It will then be of interest giving these a greater influence over the group forecast. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical post-processing method for producing probabilistic forecasts from ensembles. Raftery et al. [1] show how BMA can be used for statistical post processing of forecast ensembles, producing PDFs of future weather quantities. The BMA predictive PDF of a future weather quantity is a weighted average of the ensemble members' PDFs, where the weights can be interpreted as posterior probabilities and reflect the ensemble members' contribution to overall forecasting skill over a training period. In Revheim and Beyer [2] the BMA procedure used in Sloughter, Gneiting and Raftery [3] were found to produce fairly accurate PDFs for the future mean wind speed of a group of sites from the single sites wind speeds. However, when the procedure was attempted applied to wind power it resulted in either problems with the estimation of the parameters (mainly caused by longer consecutive periods of no power production) or severe underestimation (mainly caused by problems with reflecting the power curve). In this paper the problems that arose when applying BMA to wind power forecasting is met through two strategies. First, the BMA procedure is run with a combination of single site wind speeds and single site wind power production as input. This solves the problem with longer consecutive periods where the input data

  3. Extension of the time-average model to Candu refueling schemes involving reshuffling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rouben, Benjamin; Nichita, Eleodor

    2008-01-01

    Candu reactors consist of a horizontal non-pressurized heavy-water-filled vessel penetrated axially by fuel channels, each containing twelve 50-cm-long fuel bundles cooled by pressurized heavy water. Candu reactors are refueled on-line and, as a consequence, the core flux and power distributions change continuously. For design purposes, a 'time-average' model was developed in the 1970's to calculate the average over time of the flux and power distribution and to study the effects of different refueling schemes. The original time-average model only allows treatment of simple push-through refueling schemes whereby fresh fuel is inserted at one end of the channel and irradiated fuel is removed from the other end. With the advent of advanced fuel cycles and new Candu designs, novel refueling schemes may be considered, such as reshuffling discharged fuel from some channels into other channels, to achieve better overall discharge burnup. Such reshuffling schemes cannot be handled by the original time-average model. This paper presents an extension of the time-average model to allow for the treatment of refueling schemes with reshuffling. Equations for the extended model are presented, together with sample results for a simple demonstration case. (authors)

  4. Time Series ARIMA Models of Undergraduate Grade Point Average.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Bruce G.

    The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

  5. Analysis of small sample size studies using nonparametric bootstrap test with pooled resampling method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwivedi, Alok Kumar; Mallawaarachchi, Indika; Alvarado, Luis A

    2017-06-30

    Experimental studies in biomedical research frequently pose analytical problems related to small sample size. In such studies, there are conflicting findings regarding the choice of parametric and nonparametric analysis, especially with non-normal data. In such instances, some methodologists questioned the validity of parametric tests and suggested nonparametric tests. In contrast, other methodologists found nonparametric tests to be too conservative and less powerful and thus preferred using parametric tests. Some researchers have recommended using a bootstrap test; however, this method also has small sample size limitation. We used a pooled method in nonparametric bootstrap test that may overcome the problem related with small samples in hypothesis testing. The present study compared nonparametric bootstrap test with pooled resampling method corresponding to parametric, nonparametric, and permutation tests through extensive simulations under various conditions and using real data examples. The nonparametric pooled bootstrap t-test provided equal or greater power for comparing two means as compared with unpaired t-test, Welch t-test, Wilcoxon rank sum test, and permutation test while maintaining type I error probability for any conditions except for Cauchy and extreme variable lognormal distributions. In such cases, we suggest using an exact Wilcoxon rank sum test. Nonparametric bootstrap paired t-test also provided better performance than other alternatives. Nonparametric bootstrap test provided benefit over exact Kruskal-Wallis test. We suggest using nonparametric bootstrap test with pooled resampling method for comparing paired or unpaired means and for validating the one way analysis of variance test results for non-normal data in small sample size studies. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. The balanced survivor average causal effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Tom; Joffe, Marshall; Hu, Bo; Li, Liang; Boucher, Ken

    2013-05-07

    Statistical analysis of longitudinal outcomes is often complicated by the absence of observable values in patients who die prior to their scheduled measurement. In such cases, the longitudinal data are said to be "truncated by death" to emphasize that the longitudinal measurements are not simply missing, but are undefined after death. Recently, the truncation by death problem has been investigated using the framework of principal stratification to define the target estimand as the survivor average causal effect (SACE), which in the context of a two-group randomized clinical trial is the mean difference in the longitudinal outcome between the treatment and control groups for the principal stratum of always-survivors. The SACE is not identified without untestable assumptions. These assumptions have often been formulated in terms of a monotonicity constraint requiring that the treatment does not reduce survival in any patient, in conjunction with assumed values for mean differences in the longitudinal outcome between certain principal strata. In this paper, we introduce an alternative estimand, the balanced-SACE, which is defined as the average causal effect on the longitudinal outcome in a particular subset of the always-survivors that is balanced with respect to the potential survival times under the treatment and control. We propose a simple estimator of the balanced-SACE that compares the longitudinal outcomes between equivalent fractions of the longest surviving patients between the treatment and control groups and does not require a monotonicity assumption. We provide expressions for the large sample bias of the estimator, along with sensitivity analyses and strategies to minimize this bias. We consider statistical inference under a bootstrap resampling procedure.

  7. Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models for double bounded environmental data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer, Fábio Mariano; Bayer, Débora Missio; Pumi, Guilherme

    2017-12-01

    In this paper we introduce the Kumaraswamy autoregressive moving average models (KARMA), which is a dynamic class of models for time series taking values in the double bounded interval (a,b) following the Kumaraswamy distribution. The Kumaraswamy family of distribution is widely applied in many areas, especially hydrology and related fields. Classical examples are time series representing rates and proportions observed over time. In the proposed KARMA model, the median is modeled by a dynamic structure containing autoregressive and moving average terms, time-varying regressors, unknown parameters and a link function. We introduce the new class of models and discuss conditional maximum likelihood estimation, hypothesis testing inference, diagnostic analysis and forecasting. In particular, we provide closed-form expressions for the conditional score vector and conditional Fisher information matrix. An application to environmental real data is presented and discussed.

  8. Bootstrap-after-bootstrap model averaging for reducing model uncertainty in model selection for air pollution mortality studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Steven; Martin, Michael A

    2010-01-01

    Concerns have been raised about findings of associations between particulate matter (PM) air pollution and mortality that have been based on a single "best" model arising from a model selection procedure, because such a strategy may ignore model uncertainty inherently involved in searching through a set of candidate models to find the best model. Model averaging has been proposed as a method of allowing for model uncertainty in this context. To propose an extension (double BOOT) to a previously described bootstrap model-averaging procedure (BOOT) for use in time series studies of the association between PM and mortality. We compared double BOOT and BOOT with Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and a standard method of model selection [standard Akaike's information criterion (AIC)]. Actual time series data from the United States are used to conduct a simulation study to compare and contrast the performance of double BOOT, BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. Double BOOT produced estimates of the effect of PM on mortality that have had smaller root mean squared error than did those produced by BOOT, BMA, and standard AIC. This performance boost resulted from estimates produced by double BOOT having smaller variance than those produced by BOOT and BMA. Double BOOT is a viable alternative to BOOT and BMA for producing estimates of the mortality effect of PM.

  9. Online Prediction under Model Uncertainty Via Dynamic Model Averaging: Application to a Cold Rolling Mill

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Raftery, Adrian E; Karny, Miroslav; Andrysek, Josef; Ettler, Pavel

    2007-01-01

    ... is. We develop a method called Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) in which a state space model for the parameters of each model is combined with a Markov chain model for the correct model. This allows the (correct...

  10. A comparative analysis of 9 multi-model averaging approaches in hydrological continuous streamflow simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, Richard; Gatien, Philippe; Renaud, Benoit; Brissette, François; Martel, Jean-Luc

    2015-10-01

    This study aims to test whether a weighted combination of several hydrological models can simulate flows more accurately than the models taken individually. In addition, the project attempts to identify the most efficient model averaging method and the optimal number of models to include in the weighting scheme. In order to address the first objective, streamflow was simulated using four lumped hydrological models (HSAMI, HMETS, MOHYSE and GR4J-6), each of which were calibrated with three different objective functions on 429 watersheds. The resulting 12 hydrographs (4 models × 3 metrics) were weighted and combined with the help of 9 averaging methods which are the simple arithmetic mean (SAM), Akaike information criterion (AICA), Bates-Granger (BGA), Bayes information criterion (BICA), Bayesian model averaging (BMA), Granger-Ramanathan average variant A, B and C (GRA, GRB and GRC) and the average by SCE-UA optimization (SCA). The same weights were then applied to the hydrographs in validation mode, and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency metric was measured between the averaged and observed hydrographs. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the accuracy of weighted methods to that of individual models. A Kruskal-Wallis test and a multi-objective optimization algorithm were then used to identify the most efficient weighted method and the optimal number of models to integrate. Results suggest that the GRA, GRB, GRC and SCA weighted methods perform better than the individual members. Model averaging from these four methods were superior to the best of the individual members in 76% of the cases. Optimal combinations on all watersheds included at least one of each of the four hydrological models. None of the optimal combinations included all members of the ensemble of 12 hydrographs. The Granger-Ramanathan average variant C (GRC) is recommended as the best compromise between accuracy, speed of execution, and simplicity.

  11. Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of a Cavity Flameholder; Assessment of Modeling Sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, R. A.

    2015-01-01

    Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. The cases simulated corresponded to those used to examine this flowfield experimentally using particle image velocimetry. A variety of turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This effort was undertaken to formally assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community. The numerical errors were quantified for both the steady-state and scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results showed a high degree of variability when comparing the predictions obtained from each turbulence model, with the non-linear eddy viscosity model (an explicit algebraic stress model) providing the most accurate prediction of the measured values. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation results were carefully scrutinized to ensure that even the coarsest grid had an acceptable level of resolution for large eddy simulation, and that the time-averaged statistics were acceptably accurate. The autocorrelation and its Fourier transform were the primary tools used for this assessment. The statistics extracted from the hybrid simulation strategy proved to be more accurate than the Reynolds-averaged results obtained using the linear eddy viscosity models. However, there was no predictive improvement noted over the results obtained from the explicit

  12. Electricity demand loads modeling using AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pappas, S.S. [Department of Information and Communication Systems Engineering, University of the Aegean, Karlovassi, 83 200 Samos (Greece); Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E. [Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, ASPETE - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Karamousantas, D.C. [Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Antikalamos, 24100 Kalamata (Greece); Katsikas, S.K. [Department of Technology Education and Digital Systems, University of Piraeus, 150 Androutsou Srt., 18 532 Piraeus (Greece); Liatsis, P. [Division of Electrical Electronic and Information Engineering, School of Engineering and Mathematical Sciences, Information and Biomedical Engineering Centre, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB (United Kingdom)

    2008-09-15

    This study addresses the problem of modeling the electricity demand loads in Greece. The provided actual load data is deseasonilized and an AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is fitted on the data off-line, using the Akaike Corrected Information Criterion (AICC). The developed model fits the data in a successful manner. Difficulties occur when the provided data includes noise or errors and also when an on-line/adaptive modeling is required. In both cases and under the assumption that the provided data can be represented by an ARMA model, simultaneous order and parameter estimation of ARMA models under the presence of noise are performed. The produced results indicate that the proposed method, which is based on the multi-model partitioning theory, tackles successfully the studied problem. For validation purposes the produced results are compared with three other established order selection criteria, namely AICC, Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The developed model could be useful in the studies that concern electricity consumption and electricity prices forecasts. (author)

  13. Automotive FMCW Radar-Enhanced Range Estimation via a Local Resampling Fourier Transform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cailing Wang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In complex traffic scenarios, more accurate measurement and discrimination for an automotive frequency-modulated continuous-wave (FMCW radar is required for intelligent robots, driverless cars and driver-assistant systems. A more accurate range estimation method based on a local resampling Fourier transform (LRFT for a FMCW radar is developed in this paper. Radar signal correlation in the phase space sees a higher signal-noise-ratio (SNR to achieve more accurate ranging, and the LRFT - which acts on a local neighbour as a refinement step - can achieve a more accurate target range. The rough range is estimated through conditional pulse compression (PC and then, around the initial rough estimation, a refined estimation through the LRFT in the local region achieves greater precision. Furthermore, the LRFT algorithm is tested in numerous simulations and physical system experiments, which show that the LRFT algorithm achieves a more precise range estimation than traditional FFT-based algorithms, especially for lower bandwidth signals.

  14. Modeling and forecasting monthly movement of annual average solar insolation based on the least-squares Fourier-model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Zong-Chang

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Introduce a finite Fourier-series model for evaluating monthly movement of annual average solar insolation. • Present a forecast method for predicting its movement based on the extended Fourier-series model in the least-squares. • Shown its movement is well described by a low numbers of harmonics with approximately 6-term Fourier series. • Predict its movement most fitting with less than 6-term Fourier series. - Abstract: Solar insolation is one of the most important measurement parameters in many fields. Modeling and forecasting monthly movement of annual average solar insolation is of increasingly importance in areas of engineering, science and economics. In this study, Fourier-analysis employing finite Fourier-series is proposed for evaluating monthly movement of annual average solar insolation and extended in the least-squares for forecasting. The conventional Fourier analysis, which is the most common analysis method in the frequency domain, cannot be directly applied for prediction. Incorporated with the least-square method, the introduced Fourier-series model is extended to predict its movement. The extended Fourier-series forecasting model obtains its optimums Fourier coefficients in the least-square sense based on its previous monthly movements. The proposed method is applied to experiments and yields satisfying results in the different cities (states). It is indicated that monthly movement of annual average solar insolation is well described by a low numbers of harmonics with approximately 6-term Fourier series. The extended Fourier forecasting model predicts the monthly movement of annual average solar insolation most fitting with less than 6-term Fourier series

  15. Average Nuclear properties based on statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Jaick, L.J.

    1974-01-01

    The rough properties of nuclei were investigated by statistical model, in systems with the same and different number of protons and neutrons, separately, considering the Coulomb energy in the last system. Some average nuclear properties were calculated based on the energy density of nuclear matter, from Weizsscker-Beth mass semiempiric formulae, generalized for compressible nuclei. In the study of a s surface energy coefficient, the great influence exercised by Coulomb energy and nuclear compressibility was verified. For a good adjust of beta stability lines and mass excess, the surface symmetry energy were established. (M.C.K.) [pt

  16. Focused information criterion and model averaging based on weighted composite quantile regression

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang; Wang, Suojin; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2013-01-01

    We study the focused information criterion and frequentist model averaging and their application to post-model-selection inference for weighted composite quantile regression (WCQR) in the context of the additive partial linear models. With the non

  17. Groundwater-quality data in seven GAMA study units: results from initial sampling, 2004-2005, and resampling, 2007-2008, of wells: California GAMA Program Priority Basin Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Robert; Belitz, Kenneth; Fram, Miranda S.

    2014-01-01

    The Priority Basin Project (PBP) of the Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Program was developed in response to the Groundwater Quality Monitoring Act of 2001 and is being conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB). The GAMA-PBP began sampling, primarily public supply wells in May 2004. By the end of February 2006, seven (of what would eventually be 35) study units had been sampled over a wide area of the State. Selected wells in these first seven study units were resampled for water quality from August 2007 to November 2008 as part of an assessment of temporal trends in water quality by the GAMA-PBP. The initial sampling was designed to provide a spatially unbiased assessment of the quality of raw groundwater used for public water supplies within the seven study units. In the 7 study units, 462 wells were selected by using a spatially distributed, randomized grid-based method to provide statistical representation of the study area. Wells selected this way are referred to as grid wells or status wells. Approximately 3 years after the initial sampling, 55 of these previously sampled status wells (approximately 10 percent in each study unit) were randomly selected for resampling. The seven resampled study units, the total number of status wells sampled for each study unit, and the number of these wells resampled for trends are as follows, in chronological order of sampling: San Diego Drainages (53 status wells, 7 trend wells), North San Francisco Bay (84, 10), Northern San Joaquin Basin (51, 5), Southern Sacramento Valley (67, 7), San Fernando–San Gabriel (35, 6), Monterey Bay and Salinas Valley Basins (91, 11), and Southeast San Joaquin Valley (83, 9). The groundwater samples were analyzed for a large number of synthetic organic constituents (volatile organic compounds [VOCs], pesticides, and pesticide degradates), constituents of special interest (perchlorate, N

  18. Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Białowolski

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to construct a forecasting model oriented on predicting basic macroeconomic variables, namely: the GDP growth rate, the unemployment rate, and the consumer price inflation. In order to select the set of the best regressors, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators (BACE is employed. The models are atheoretical (i.e. they do not reflect causal relationships postulated by the macroeconomic theory and the role of regressors is played by business and consumer tendency survey-based indicators. Additionally, survey-based indicators are included with a lag that enables to forecast the variables of interest (GDP, unemployment, and inflation for the four forthcoming quarters without the need to make any additional assumptions concerning the values of predictor variables in the forecast period.  Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimators is a method allowing for full and controlled overview of all econometric models which can be obtained out of a particular set of regressors. In this paper authors describe the method of generating a family of econometric models and the procedure for selection of a final forecasting model. Verification of the procedure is performed by means of out-of-sample forecasts of main economic variables for the quarters of 2011. The accuracy of the forecasts implies that there is still a need to search for new solutions in the atheoretical modelling.

  19. Application of autoregressive moving average model in reactor noise analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran Dinh Tri

    1993-01-01

    The application of an autoregressive (AR) model to estimating noise measurements has achieved many successes in reactor noise analysis in the last ten years. The physical processes that take place in the nuclear reactor, however, are described by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model rather than by an AR model. Consequently more correct results could be obtained by applying the ARMA model instead of the AR model to reactor noise analysis. In this paper the system of the generalised Yule-Walker equations is derived from the equation of an ARMA model, then a method for its solution is given. Numerical results show the applications of the method proposed. (author)

  20. Bayesian model averaging using particle filtering and Gaussian mixture modeling : Theory, concepts, and simulation experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rings, J.; Vrugt, J.A.; Schoups, G.; Huisman, J.A.; Vereecken, H.

    2012-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a standard method for combining predictive distributions from different models. In recent years, this method has enjoyed widespread application and use in many fields of study to improve the spread-skill relationship of forecast ensembles. The BMA predictive

  1. Estimation and Forecasting in Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models for Rich Datasets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Kapetanios, George

    We address the issue of modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables using rich datasets, by adopting the class of Vector Autoregressive Moving Average (VARMA) models. We overcome the estimation issue that arises with this class of models by implementing an iterative ordinary least squares (...

  2. Free-free opacity in dense plasmas with an average atom model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaffer, Nathaniel R.; Ferris, Natalie G.; Colgan, James Patrick; Kilcrease, David Parker; Starrett, Charles Edward

    2017-01-01

    A model for the free-free opacity of dense plasmas is presented. The model uses a previously developed average atom model, together with the Kubo-Greenwood model for optical conductivity. This, in turn, is used to calculate the opacity with the Kramers-Kronig dispersion relations. Furthermore, comparisons to other methods for dense deuterium results in excellent agreement with DFT-MD simulations, and reasonable agreement with a simple Yukawa screening model corrected to satisfy the conductivity sum rule.

  3. Modeling methane emission via the infinite moving average process

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jordanova, D.; Dušek, Jiří; Stehlík, M.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 122, - (2013), s. 40-49 ISSN 0169-7439 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GAP504/11/1151 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Environmental chemistry * Pareto tails * t-Hill estimator * Weak consistency * Moving average process * Methane emission model Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.381, year: 2013

  4. Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Beach Evolution Modeling: Case Study of the Kizilirmak River Mouth, Turkey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baykal, Cüneyt; Ergin, Ayşen; Güler, Işikhan

    2014-01-01

    investigated by satellite images, physical model tests, and one-dimensional numerical models. The current study uses a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical beach evolution model, developed based on existing methodologies. This model is mainly composed of four main submodels: a phase-averaged spectral wave......This study presents an application of a two-dimensional beach evolution model to a shoreline change problem at the Kizilirmak River mouth, which has been facing severe coastal erosion problems for more than 20 years. The shoreline changes at the Kizilirmak River mouth have been thus far...... transformation model, a two-dimensional depth-averaged numerical waveinduced circulation model, a sediment transport model, and a bottom evolution model. To validate and verify the numerical model, it is applied to several cases of laboratory experiments. Later, the model is applied to a shoreline change problem...

  5. Fast Generation of Ensembles of Cosmological N-Body Simulations via Mode-Resampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, M D; Cole, S; Frenk, C S; Szapudi, I

    2011-02-14

    We present an algorithm for quickly generating multiple realizations of N-body simulations to be used, for example, for cosmological parameter estimation from surveys of large-scale structure. Our algorithm uses a new method to resample the large-scale (Gaussian-distributed) Fourier modes in a periodic N-body simulation box in a manner that properly accounts for the nonlinear mode-coupling between large and small scales. We find that our method for adding new large-scale mode realizations recovers the nonlinear power spectrum to sub-percent accuracy on scales larger than about half the Nyquist frequency of the simulation box. Using 20 N-body simulations, we obtain a power spectrum covariance matrix estimate that matches the estimator from Takahashi et al. (from 5000 simulations) with < 20% errors in all matrix elements. Comparing the rates of convergence, we determine that our algorithm requires {approx}8 times fewer simulations to achieve a given error tolerance in estimates of the power spectrum covariance matrix. The degree of success of our algorithm indicates that we understand the main physical processes that give rise to the correlations in the matter power spectrum. Namely, the large-scale Fourier modes modulate both the degree of structure growth through the variation in the effective local matter density and also the spatial frequency of small-scale perturbations through large-scale displacements. We expect our algorithm to be useful for noise modeling when constraining cosmological parameters from weak lensing (cosmic shear) and galaxy surveys, rescaling summary statistics of N-body simulations for new cosmological parameter values, and any applications where the influence of Fourier modes larger than the simulation size must be accounted for.

  6. Analysis of nonlinear systems using ARMA [autoregressive moving average] models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, N.F. Jr.

    1990-01-01

    While many vibration systems exhibit primarily linear behavior, a significant percentage of the systems encountered in vibration and model testing are mildly to severely nonlinear. Analysis methods for such nonlinear systems are not yet well developed and the response of such systems is not accurately predicted by linear models. Nonlinear ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models are one method for the analysis and response prediction of nonlinear vibratory systems. In this paper we review the background of linear and nonlinear ARMA models, and illustrate the application of these models to nonlinear vibration systems. We conclude by summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of ARMA models and emphasizing prospects for future development. 14 refs., 11 figs

  7. Analysis of litter size and average litter weight in pigs using a recursive model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varona, Luis; Sorensen, Daniel; Thompson, Robin

    2007-01-01

    An analysis of litter size and average piglet weight at birth in Landrace and Yorkshire using a standard two-trait mixed model (SMM) and a recursive mixed model (RMM) is presented. The RMM establishes a one-way link from litter size to average piglet weight. It is shown that there is a one......-to-one correspondence between the parameters of SMM and RMM and that they generate equivalent likelihoods. As parameterized in this work, the RMM tests for the presence of a recursive relationship between additive genetic values, permanent environmental effects, and specific environmental effects of litter size......, on average piglet weight. The equivalent standard mixed model tests whether or not the covariance matrices of the random effects have a diagonal structure. In Landrace, posterior predictive model checking supports a model without any form of recursion or, alternatively, a SMM with diagonal covariance...

  8. Model averaging in the analysis of leukemia mortality among Japanese A-bomb survivors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, David B.; Cole, Stephen R.

    2012-01-01

    Epidemiological studies often include numerous covariates, with a variety of possible approaches to control for confounding of the association of primary interest, as well as a variety of possible models for the exposure-response association of interest. Walsh and Kaiser (Radiat Environ Biophys 50:21-35, 2011) advocate a weighted averaging of the models, where the weights are a function of overall model goodness of fit and degrees of freedom. They apply this method to analyses of radiation-leukemia mortality associations among Japanese A-bomb survivors. We caution against such an approach, noting that the proposed model averaging approach prioritizes the inclusion of covariates that are strong predictors of the outcome, but which may be irrelevant as confounders of the association of interest, and penalizes adjustment for covariates that are confounders of the association of interest, but may contribute little to overall model goodness of fit. We offer a simple illustration of how this approach can lead to biased results. The proposed model averaging approach may also be suboptimal as way to handle competing model forms for an exposure-response association of interest, given adjustment for the same set of confounders; alternative approaches, such as hierarchical regression, may provide a more useful way to stabilize risk estimates in this setting. (orig.)

  9. Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of the Flow in a Model SCRamjet Cavity Flameholder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, R. A.

    2016-01-01

    Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. Experimental data available for this configuration include velocity statistics obtained from particle image velocimetry. Several turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This e ort was undertaken to not only assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community, but to also begin to understand how this capability can best be used to augment standard Reynolds-averaged simulations. The numerical errors were quantified for the steady-state simulations, and at least qualitatively assessed for the scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results displayed a high degree of variability when comparing the flameholder fuel distributions obtained from each turbulence model. This prompted the consideration of applying the higher-fidelity scale-resolving simulations as a surrogate "truth" model to calibrate the Reynolds-averaged closures in a non-reacting setting prior to their use for the combusting simulations. In general, the Reynolds-averaged velocity profile predictions at the lowest fueling level matched the particle imaging measurements almost as well as was observed for the non-reacting condition. However, the velocity field predictions proved to be more sensitive to the flameholder fueling rate than was indicated in the measurements.

  10. A Particle Smoother with Sequential Importance Resampling for soil hydraulic parameter estimation: A lysimeter experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montzka, Carsten; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Moradkhani, Hamid; Pütz, Thomas; Han, Xujun; Vereecken, Harry

    2013-04-01

    An adequate description of soil hydraulic properties is essential for a good performance of hydrological forecasts. So far, several studies showed that data assimilation could reduce the parameter uncertainty by considering soil moisture observations. However, these observations and also the model forcings were recorded with a specific measurement error. It seems a logical step to base state updating and parameter estimation on observations made at multiple time steps, in order to reduce the influence of outliers at single time steps given measurement errors and unknown model forcings. Such outliers could result in erroneous state estimation as well as inadequate parameters. This has been one of the reasons to use a smoothing technique as implemented for Bayesian data assimilation methods such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (i.e. Ensemble Kalman Smoother). Recently, an ensemble-based smoother has been developed for state update with a SIR particle filter. However, this method has not been used for dual state-parameter estimation. In this contribution we present a Particle Smoother with sequentially smoothing of particle weights for state and parameter resampling within a time window as opposed to the single time step data assimilation used in filtering techniques. This can be seen as an intermediate variant between a parameter estimation technique using global optimization with estimation of single parameter sets valid for the whole period, and sequential Monte Carlo techniques with estimation of parameter sets evolving from one time step to another. The aims are i) to improve the forecast of evaporation and groundwater recharge by estimating hydraulic parameters, and ii) to reduce the impact of single erroneous model inputs/observations by a smoothing method. In order to validate the performance of the proposed method in a real world application, the experiment is conducted in a lysimeter environment.

  11. A novel Generalized State-Space Averaging (GSSA) model for advanced aircraft electric power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebrahimi, Hadi; El-Kishky, Hassan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A study model is developed for aircraft electric power systems. • A novel GSSA model is developed for the interconnected power grid. • The system’s dynamics are characterized under various conditions. • The averaged results are compared and verified with the actual model. • The obtained measured values are validated with available aircraft standards. - Abstract: The growing complexity of Advanced Aircraft Electric Power Systems (AAEPS) has made conventional state-space averaging models inadequate for systems analysis and characterization. This paper presents a novel Generalized State-Space Averaging (GSSA) model for the system analysis, control and characterization of AAEPS. The primary objective of this paper is to introduce a mathematically elegant and computationally simple model to copy the AAEPS behavior at the critical nodes of the electric grid. Also, to reduce some or all of the drawbacks (complexity, cost, simulation time…, etc) associated with sensor-based monitoring and computer aided design software simulations popularly used for AAEPS characterization. It is shown in this paper that the GSSA approach overcomes the limitations of the conventional state-space averaging method, which fails to predict the behavior of AC signals in a circuit analysis. Unlike conventional averaging method, the GSSA model presented in this paper includes both DC and AC components. This would capture the key dynamic and steady-state characteristics of the aircraft electric systems. The developed model is then examined for the aircraft system’s visualization and accuracy of computation under different loading scenarios. Through several case studies, the applicability and effectiveness of the GSSA method is verified by comparing to the actual real-time simulation model obtained from Powersim 9 (PSIM9) software environment. The simulations results represent voltage, current and load power at the major nodes of the AAEPS. It has been demonstrated that

  12. Model selection for semiparametric marginal mean regression accounting for within-cluster subsampling variability and informative cluster size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chung-Wei; Chen, Yi-Hau

    2018-03-13

    We propose a model selection criterion for semiparametric marginal mean regression based on generalized estimating equations. The work is motivated by a longitudinal study on the physical frailty outcome in the elderly, where the cluster size, that is, the number of the observed outcomes in each subject, is "informative" in the sense that it is related to the frailty outcome itself. The new proposal, called Resampling Cluster Information Criterion (RCIC), is based on the resampling idea utilized in the within-cluster resampling method (Hoffman, Sen, and Weinberg, 2001, Biometrika 88, 1121-1134) and accommodates informative cluster size. The implementation of RCIC, however, is free of performing actual resampling of the data and hence is computationally convenient. Compared with the existing model selection methods for marginal mean regression, the RCIC method incorporates an additional component accounting for variability of the model over within-cluster subsampling, and leads to remarkable improvements in selecting the correct model, regardless of whether the cluster size is informative or not. Applying the RCIC method to the longitudinal frailty study, we identify being female, old age, low income and life satisfaction, and chronic health conditions as significant risk factors for physical frailty in the elderly. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Semi-analytical wave functions in relativistic average atom model for high-temperature plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo Yonghui; Duan Yaoyong; Kuai Bin

    2007-01-01

    The semi-analytical method is utilized for solving a relativistic average atom model for high-temperature plasmas. Semi-analytical wave function and the corresponding energy eigenvalue, containing only a numerical factor, are obtained by fitting the potential function in the average atom into hydrogen-like one. The full equations for the model are enumerated, and more attentions are paid upon the detailed procedures including the numerical techniques and computer code design. When the temperature of plasmas is comparatively high, the semi-analytical results agree quite well with those obtained by using a full numerical method for the same model and with those calculated by just a little different physical models, and the result's accuracy and computation efficiency are worthy of note. The drawbacks for this model are also analyzed. (authors)

  14. Inferring microevolution from museum collections and resampling: lessons learned from Cepaea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Ożgo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Natural history collections are an important and largely untapped source of long-term data on evolutionary changes in wild populations. Here, we utilize three large geo-referenced sets of samples of the common European land-snail Cepaea nemoralis stored in the collection of Naturalis Biodiversity Center in Leiden, the Netherlands. Resampling of these populations allowed us to gain insight into changes occurring over 95, 69, and 50 years. Cepaea nemoralis is polymorphic for the colour and banding of the shell; the mode of inheritance of these patterns is known, and the polymorphism is under both thermal and predatory selection. At two sites the general direction of changes was towards lighter shells (yellow and less heavily banded, which is consistent with predictions based on on-going climatic change. At one site no directional changes were detected. At all sites there were significant shifts in morph frequencies between years, and our study contributes to the recognition that short-term changes in the states of populations often exceed long-term trends. Our interpretation was limited by the few time points available in the studied collections. We therefore stress the need for natural history collections to routinely collect large samples of common species, to allow much more reliable hind-casting of evolutionary responses to environmental change.

  15. Focused information criterion and model averaging based on weighted composite quantile regression

    KAUST Repository

    Xu, Ganggang

    2013-08-13

    We study the focused information criterion and frequentist model averaging and their application to post-model-selection inference for weighted composite quantile regression (WCQR) in the context of the additive partial linear models. With the non-parametric functions approximated by polynomial splines, we show that, under certain conditions, the asymptotic distribution of the frequentist model averaging WCQR-estimator of a focused parameter is a non-linear mixture of normal distributions. This asymptotic distribution is used to construct confidence intervals that achieve the nominal coverage probability. With properly chosen weights, the focused information criterion based WCQR estimators are not only robust to outliers and non-normal residuals but also can achieve efficiency close to the maximum likelihood estimator, without assuming the true error distribution. Simulation studies and a real data analysis are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure. © 2013 Board of the Foundation of the Scandinavian Journal of Statistics..

  16. A new nonlinear turbulence model based on Partially-Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, J T; Wu, Y L; Cai, C; Liu, S H; Wang, L Q

    2013-01-01

    Partially-averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) Model was recognized as a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) to direct numerical simulation (DNS) bridging method. PANS model was purported for any filter width-from RANS to DNS. PANS method also shared some similarities with the currently popular URANS (unsteady RANS) method. In this paper, a new PANS model was proposed, which was based on RNG k-ε turbulence model. The Standard and RNG k-ε turbulence model were both isotropic models, as well as PANS models. The sheer stress in those PANS models was solved by linear equation. The linear hypothesis was not accurate in the simulation of complex flow, such as stall phenomenon. The sheer stress here was solved by nonlinear method proposed by Ehrhard. Then, the nonlinear PANS model was set up. The pressure coefficient of the suction side of the NACA0015 hydrofoil was predicted. The result of pressure coefficient agrees well with experimental result, which proves that the nonlinear PANS model can capture the high pressure gradient flow. A low specific centrifugal pump was used to verify the capacity of the nonlinear PANS model. The comparison between the simulation results of the centrifugal pump and Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) results proves that the nonlinear PANS model can be used in the prediction of complex flow field

  17. Validation of a mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model for premixed lean hydrogen flames

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlup, Jason; Blanquart, Guillaume

    2018-03-01

    The mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model originally proposed by Chapman and Cowling is validated using multiple flame configurations. Simulations using detailed hydrogen chemistry are done on one-, two-, and three-dimensional flames. The analysis spans flat and stretched, steady and unsteady, and laminar and turbulent flames. Quantitative and qualitative results using the thermal diffusion model compare very well with the more complex multicomponent diffusion model. Comparisons are made using flame speeds, surface areas, species profiles, and chemical source terms. Once validated, this model is applied to three-dimensional laminar and turbulent flames. For these cases, thermal diffusion causes an increase in the propagation speed of the flames as well as increased product chemical source terms in regions of high positive curvature. The results illustrate the necessity for including thermal diffusion, and the accuracy and computational efficiency of the mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model.

  18. Hardware Architecture of Polyphase Filter Banks Performing Embedded Resampling for Software-Defined Radio Front-Ends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Awan, Mehmood-Ur-Rehman; Le Moullec, Yannick; Koch, Peter

    2012-01-01

    , and power optimization for field programmable gate array (FPGA) based architectures in an M -path polyphase filter bank with modified N -path polyphase filter. Such systems allow resampling by arbitrary ratios while simultaneously performing baseband aliasing from center frequencies at Nyquist zones......In this paper, we describe resource-efficient hardware architectures for software-defined radio (SDR) front-ends. These architectures are made efficient by using a polyphase channelizer that performs arbitrary sample rate changes, frequency selection, and bandwidth control. We discuss area, time...... that are not multiples of the output sample rate. A non-maximally decimated polyphase filter bank, where the number of data loads is not equal to the number of M subfilters, processes M subfilters in a time period that is either less than or greater than the M data-load’s time period. We present a load...

  19. An averaging battery model for a lead-acid battery operating in an electric car

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozek, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    A battery model is developed based on time averaging the current or power, and is shown to be an effective means of predicting the performance of a lead acid battery. The effectiveness of this battery model was tested on battery discharge profiles expected during the operation of an electric vehicle following the various SAE J227a driving schedules. The averaging model predicts the performance of a battery that is periodically charged (regenerated) if the regeneration energy is assumed to be converted to retrievable electrochemical energy on a one-to-one basis.

  20. A Tidally Averaged Sediment-Transport Model for San Francisco Bay, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionberger, Megan A.; Schoellhamer, David H.

    2009-01-01

    A tidally averaged sediment-transport model of San Francisco Bay was incorporated into a tidally averaged salinity box model previously developed and calibrated using salinity, a conservative tracer (Uncles and Peterson, 1995; Knowles, 1996). The Bay is represented in the model by 50 segments composed of two layers: one representing the channel (>5-meter depth) and the other the shallows (0- to 5-meter depth). Calculations are made using a daily time step and simulations can be made on the decadal time scale. The sediment-transport model includes an erosion-deposition algorithm, a bed-sediment algorithm, and sediment boundary conditions. Erosion and deposition of bed sediments are calculated explicitly, and suspended sediment is transported by implicitly solving the advection-dispersion equation. The bed-sediment model simulates the increase in bed strength with depth, owing to consolidation of fine sediments that make up San Francisco Bay mud. The model is calibrated to either net sedimentation calculated from bathymetric-change data or measured suspended-sediment concentration. Specified boundary conditions are the tributary fluxes of suspended sediment and suspended-sediment concentration in the Pacific Ocean. Results of model calibration and validation show that the model simulates the trends in suspended-sediment concentration associated with tidal fluctuations, residual velocity, and wind stress well, although the spring neap tidal suspended-sediment concentration variability was consistently underestimated. Model validation also showed poor simulation of seasonal sediment pulses from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta at Point San Pablo because the pulses enter the Bay over only a few days and the fate of the pulses is determined by intra-tidal deposition and resuspension that are not included in this tidally averaged model. The model was calibrated to net-basin sedimentation to calculate budgets of sediment and sediment-associated contaminants. While

  1. Resampling: An optimization method for inverse planning in robotic radiosurgery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweikard, Achim; Schlaefer, Alexander; Adler, John R. Jr.

    2006-01-01

    By design, the range of beam directions in conventional radiosurgery are constrained to an isocentric array. However, the recent introduction of robotic radiosurgery dramatically increases the flexibility of targeting, and as a consequence, beams need be neither coplanar nor isocentric. Such a nonisocentric design permits a large number of distinct beam directions to be used in one single treatment. These major technical differences provide an opportunity to improve upon the well-established principles for treatment planning used with GammaKnife or LINAC radiosurgery. With this objective in mind, our group has developed over the past decade an inverse planning tool for robotic radiosurgery. This system first computes a set of beam directions, and then during an optimization step, weights each individual beam. Optimization begins with a feasibility query, the answer to which is derived through linear programming. This approach offers the advantage of completeness and avoids local optima. Final beam selection is based on heuristics. In this report we present and evaluate a new strategy for utilizing the advantages of linear programming to improve beam selection. Starting from an initial solution, a heuristically determined set of beams is added to the optimization problem, while beams with zero weight are removed. This process is repeated to sample a set of beams much larger compared with typical optimization. Experimental results indicate that the planning approach efficiently finds acceptable plans and that resampling can further improve its efficiency

  2. Relative contributions of sampling effort, measuring, and weighing to precision of larval sea lamprey biomass estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slade, Jeffrey W.; Adams, Jean V.; Cuddy, Douglas W.; Neave, Fraser B.; Sullivan, W. Paul; Young, Robert J.; Fodale, Michael F.; Jones, Michael L.

    2003-01-01

    We developed two weight-length models from 231 populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) collected from tributaries of the Great Lakes: Lake Ontario (21), Lake Erie (6), Lake Huron (67), Lake Michigan (76), and Lake Superior (61). Both models were mixed models, which used population as a random effect and additional environmental factors as fixed effects. We resampled weights and lengths 1,000 times from data collected in each of 14 other populations not used to develop the models, obtaining a weight and length distribution from reach resampling. To test model performance, we applied the two weight-length models to the resampled length distributions and calculated the predicted mean weights. We also calculated the observed mean weight for each resampling and for each of the original 14 data sets. When the average of predicted means was compared to means from the original data in each stream, inclusion of environmental factors did not consistently improve the performance of the weight-length model. We estimated the variance associated with measures of abundance and mean weight for each of the 14 selected populations and determined that a conservative estimate of the proportional contribution to variance associated with estimating abundance accounted for 32% to 95% of the variance (mean = 66%). Variability in the biomass estimate appears more affected by variability in estimating abundance than in converting length to weight. Hence, efforts to improve the precision of biomass estimates would be aided most by reducing the variability associated with estimating abundance.

  3. Evaluation of subject contrast and normalized average glandular dose by semi-analytical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomal, A.; Poletti, M.E.; Caldas, L.V.E.

    2010-01-01

    In this work, two semi-analytical models are described to evaluate the subject contrast of nodules and the normalized average glandular dose in mammography. Both models were used to study the influence of some parameters, such as breast characteristics (thickness and composition) and incident spectra (kVp and target-filter combination) on the subject contrast of a nodule and on the normalized average glandular dose. From the subject contrast results, detection limits of nodules were also determined. Our results are in good agreement with those reported by other authors, who had used Monte Carlo simulation, showing the robustness of our semi-analytical method.

  4. Evidence on a Real Business Cycle Model with Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks using Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for a real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. This procedure makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is

  5. Modeling and Forecasting Average Temperature for Weather Derivative Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhiliang Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present a feasible model for the daily average temperature on the area of Zhengzhou and apply it to weather derivatives pricing. We start by exploring the background of weather derivatives market and then use the 62 years of daily historical data to apply the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to describe the evolution of the temperature. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to price heating degree day (HDD call option for this city, and the slow convergence of the price of the HDD call can be found through taking 100,000 simulations. The methods of the research will provide a frame work for modeling temperature and pricing weather derivatives in other similar places in China.

  6. Application of the Periodic Average System Model in Dam Deformation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueqian Shen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Dams are among the most important hydraulic engineering facilities used for water supply, flood control, and hydroelectric power. Monitoring of dams is crucial since deformation might have occurred. How to obtain the deformation information and then judge the safe conditions is the key and difficult problem in dam deformation monitoring field. This paper proposes the periodic average system model and creates the concept of “settlement activity” based on the dam deformation issue. Long-term deformation monitoring data is carried out in a pumped-storage power station, this model combined with settlement activity is used to make the single point deformation analysis, and then the whole settlement activity profile is drawn by clustering analysis. Considering the cumulative settlement value of every point, the dam deformation trend is analyzed in an intuitive effect way. The analysis mode of combined single point with multipoints is realized. The results show that the key deformation information of the dam can be easily grasped by the application of the periodic average system model combined with the distribution diagram of settlement activity. And, above all, the ideas of this research provide an effective method for dam deformation analysis.

  7. Influence of Averaging Preprocessing on Image Analysis with a Markov Random Field Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakamoto, Hirotaka; Nakanishi-Ohno, Yoshinori; Okada, Masato

    2018-02-01

    This paper describes our investigations into the influence of averaging preprocessing on the performance of image analysis. Averaging preprocessing involves a trade-off: image averaging is often undertaken to reduce noise while the number of image data available for image analysis is decreased. We formulated a process of generating image data by using a Markov random field (MRF) model to achieve image analysis tasks such as image restoration and hyper-parameter estimation by a Bayesian approach. According to the notions of Bayesian inference, posterior distributions were analyzed to evaluate the influence of averaging. There are three main results. First, we found that the performance of image restoration with a predetermined value for hyper-parameters is invariant regardless of whether averaging is conducted. We then found that the performance of hyper-parameter estimation deteriorates due to averaging. Our analysis of the negative logarithm of the posterior probability, which is called the free energy based on an analogy with statistical mechanics, indicated that the confidence of hyper-parameter estimation remains higher without averaging. Finally, we found that when the hyper-parameters are estimated from the data, the performance of image restoration worsens as averaging is undertaken. We conclude that averaging adversely influences the performance of image analysis through hyper-parameter estimation.

  8. Assessing sequential data assimilation techniques for integrating GRACE data into a hydrological model

    KAUST Repository

    Khaki, M.

    2017-07-06

    The time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS) products from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) have been increasingly used in recent years to improve the simulation of hydrological models by applying data assimilation techniques. In this study, for the first time, we assess the performance of the most popular data assimilation sequential techniques for integrating GRACE TWS into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) model. We implement and test stochastic and deterministic ensemble-based Kalman filters (EnKF), as well as Particle filters (PF) using two different resampling approaches of Multinomial Resampling and Systematic Resampling. These choices provide various opportunities for weighting observations and model simulations during the assimilation and also accounting for error distributions. Particularly, the deterministic EnKF is tested to avoid perturbing observations before assimilation (that is the case in an ordinary EnKF). Gaussian-based random updates in the EnKF approaches likely do not fully represent the statistical properties of the model simulations and TWS observations. Therefore, the fully non-Gaussian PF is also applied to estimate more realistic updates. Monthly GRACE TWS are assimilated into W3RA covering the entire Australia. To evaluate the filters performances and analyze their impact on model simulations, their estimates are validated by independent in-situ measurements. Our results indicate that all implemented filters improve the estimation of water storage simulations of W3RA. The best results are obtained using two versions of deterministic EnKF, i.e. the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) scheme and the Ensemble Square Root Filter (EnSRF), respectively improving the model groundwater estimations errors by 34% and 31% compared to a model run without assimilation. Applying the PF along with Systematic Resampling successfully decreases the model estimation error by 23%.

  9. State and parameter estimation of two land surface models using the ensemble Kalman filter and the particle filter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zhang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models (LSMs use a large cohort of parameters and state variables to simulate the water and energy balance at the soil–atmosphere interface. Many of these model parameters cannot be measured directly in the field, and require calibration against measured fluxes of carbon dioxide, sensible and/or latent heat, and/or observations of the thermal and/or moisture state of the soil. Here, we evaluate the usefulness and applicability of four different data assimilation methods for joint parameter and state estimation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model (VIC-3L and the Community Land Model (CLM using a 5-month calibration (assimilation period (March–July 2012 of areal-averaged SPADE soil moisture measurements at 5, 20, and 50 cm depths in the Rollesbroich experimental test site in the Eifel mountain range in western Germany. We used the EnKF with state augmentation or dual estimation, respectively, and the residual resampling PF with a simple, statistically deficient, or more sophisticated, MCMC-based parameter resampling method. The performance of the calibrated LSM models was investigated using SPADE water content measurements of a 5-month evaluation period (August–December 2012. As expected, all DA methods enhance the ability of the VIC and CLM models to describe spatiotemporal patterns of moisture storage within the vadose zone of the Rollesbroich site, particularly if the maximum baseflow velocity (VIC or fractions of sand, clay, and organic matter of each layer (CLM are estimated jointly with the model states of each soil layer. The differences between the soil moisture simulations of VIC-3L and CLM are much larger than the discrepancies among the four data assimilation methods. The EnKF with state augmentation or dual estimation yields the best performance of VIC-3L and CLM during the calibration and evaluation period, yet results are in close agreement with the PF using MCMC resampling. Overall, CLM demonstrated the

  10. Compact and accurate linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using laguerre functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chon, K H; Cohen, R J; Holstein-Rathlou, N H

    1997-01-01

    A linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) identification algorithm is developed for modeling time series data. The algorithm uses Laguerre expansion of kernals (LEK) to estimate Volterra-Wiener kernals. However, instead of estimating linear and nonlinear system dynamics via moving...... average models, as is the case for the Volterra-Wiener analysis, we propose an ARMA model-based approach. The proposed algorithm is essentially the same as LEK, but this algorithm is extended to include past values of the output as well. Thus, all of the advantages associated with using the Laguerre...

  11. Actuator disk model of wind farms based on the rotor average wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xing Xing; Xu, Chang; Liu, De You

    2016-01-01

    Due to difficulty of estimating the reference wind speed for wake modeling in wind farm, this paper proposes a new method to calculate the momentum source based on the rotor average wind speed. The proposed model applies volume correction factor to reduce the influence of the mesh recognition of ...

  12. Community level patterns in diverse systems: A case study of litter fauna in a Mexican pine-oak forest using higher taxa surrogates and re-sampling methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Claudia E.; Guevara, Roger; Sánchez-Rojas, Gerardo; Téllez, Dianeis; Verdú, José R.

    2008-01-01

    Environmental assessment at the community level in highly diverse ecosystems is limited by taxonomic constraints and statistical methods requiring true replicates. Our objective was to show how diverse systems can be studied at the community level using higher taxa as biodiversity surrogates, and re-sampling methods to allow comparisons. To illustrate this we compared the abundance, richness, evenness and diversity of the litter fauna in a pine-oak forest in central Mexico among seasons, sites and collecting methods. We also assessed changes in the abundance of trophic guilds and evaluated the relationships between community parameters and litter attributes. With the direct search method we observed differences in the rate of taxa accumulation between sites. Bootstrap analysis showed that abundance varied significantly between seasons and sampling methods, but not between sites. In contrast, diversity and evenness were significantly higher at the managed than at the non-managed site. Tree regression models show that abundance varied mainly between seasons, whereas taxa richness was affected by litter attributes (composition and moisture content). The abundance of trophic guilds varied among methods and seasons, but overall we found that parasitoids, predators and detrivores decreased under management. Therefore, although our results suggest that management has positive effects on the richness and diversity of litter fauna, the analysis of trophic guilds revealed a contrasting story. Our results indicate that functional groups and re-sampling methods may be used as tools for describing community patterns in highly diverse systems. Also, the higher taxa surrogacy could be seen as a preliminary approach when it is not possible to identify the specimens at a low taxonomic level in a reasonable period of time and in a context of limited financial resources, but further studies are needed to test whether the results are specific to a system or whether they are general

  13. Random resampling masks: a non-Bayesian one-shot strategy for noise reduction in digital holography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, V; Paturzo, M; Memmolo, P; Finizio, A; Ferraro, P; Javidi, B

    2013-03-01

    Holographic imaging may become severely degraded by a mixture of speckle and incoherent additive noise. Bayesian approaches reduce the incoherent noise, but prior information is needed on the noise statistics. With no prior knowledge, one-shot reduction of noise is a highly desirable goal, as the recording process is simplified and made faster. Indeed, neither multiple acquisitions nor a complex setup are needed. So far, this result has been achieved at the cost of a deterministic resolution loss. Here we propose a fast non-Bayesian denoising method that avoids this trade-off by means of a numerical synthesis of a moving diffuser. In this way, only one single hologram is required as multiple uncorrelated reconstructions are provided by random complementary resampling masks. Experiments show a significant incoherent noise reduction, close to the theoretical improvement bound, resulting in image-contrast improvement. At the same time, we preserve the resolution of the unprocessed image.

  14. Predicting water main failures using Bayesian model averaging and survival modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabir, Golam; Tesfamariam, Solomon; Sadiq, Rehan

    2015-01-01

    To develop an effective preventive or proactive repair and replacement action plan, water utilities often rely on water main failure prediction models. However, in predicting the failure of water mains, uncertainty is inherent regardless of the quality and quantity of data used in the model. To improve the understanding of water main failure, a Bayesian framework is developed for predicting the failure of water mains considering uncertainties. In this study, Bayesian model averaging method (BMA) is presented to identify the influential pipe-dependent and time-dependent covariates considering model uncertainties whereas Bayesian Weibull Proportional Hazard Model (BWPHM) is applied to develop the survival curves and to predict the failure rates of water mains. To accredit the proposed framework, it is implemented to predict the failure of cast iron (CI) and ductile iron (DI) pipes of the water distribution network of the City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Results indicate that the predicted 95% uncertainty bounds of the proposed BWPHMs capture effectively the observed breaks for both CI and DI water mains. Moreover, the performance of the proposed BWPHMs are better compare to the Cox-Proportional Hazard Model (Cox-PHM) for considering Weibull distribution for the baseline hazard function and model uncertainties. - Highlights: • Prioritize rehabilitation and replacements (R/R) strategies of water mains. • Consider the uncertainties for the failure prediction. • Improve the prediction capability of the water mains failure models. • Identify the influential and appropriate covariates for different models. • Determine the effects of the covariates on failure

  15. A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Haberlandt

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series.

    First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in

  16. Stochastic modelling of the monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns in India 1981-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-04-01

    The paper investigates the stochastic modelling and forecasting of monthly average maximum and minimum temperature patterns through suitable seasonal auto regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model for the period 1981-2015 in India. The variations and distributions of monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed through Box plots and cumulative distribution functions. The time series plot indicates that the maximum temperature series contain sharp peaks in almost all the years, while it is not true for the minimum temperature series, so both the series are modelled separately. The possible SARIMA model has been chosen based on observing autocorrelation function (ACF), partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and inverse autocorrelation function (IACF) of the logarithmic transformed temperature series. The SARIMA (1, 0, 0) × (0, 1, 1)12 model is selected for monthly average maximum and minimum temperature series based on minimum Bayesian information criteria. The model parameters are obtained using maximum-likelihood method with the help of standard error of residuals. The adequacy of the selected model is determined using correlation diagnostic checking through ACF, PACF, IACF, and p values of Ljung-Box test statistic of residuals and using normal diagnostic checking through the kernel and normal density curves of histogram and Q-Q plot. Finally, the forecasting of monthly maximum and minimum temperature patterns of India for the next 3 years has been noticed with the help of selected model.

  17. Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.

  18. Zonally averaged chemical-dynamical model of the lower thermosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasting, J.F.; Roble, R.G.

    1981-01-01

    A zonally averaged numerical model of the thermosphere is used to examine the coupling between neutral composition, including N 2 , O 2 and O, temperature, and winds at solstice for solar minimum conditions. The meridional circulation forced by solar heating results in a summer-to-winter flow, with a winter enhancement in atomic oxygen density that is a factor of about 1.8 greater than the summer hemisphere at 160 km. The O 2 and N 2 variations are associated with a latitudinal gradient in total number density, which is required to achieve pressure balance in the presence of large zonal jets. Latitudinal profiles OI (5577A) green line emission intensity are calculated by using both Chapman and Barth mechanisms. Composition of the lower thermosphere is shown to be strongly influenced by circulation patterns initiated in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere, below the lower boundary used in the model

  19. Implementation, Comparison and Application of an Average Simulation Model of a Wind Turbine Driven Doubly Fed Induction Generator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lidula N. Widanagama Arachchige

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Wind turbine driven doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs are widely used in the wind power industry. With the increasing penetration of wind farms, analysis of their effect on power systems has become a critical requirement. This paper presents the modeling of wind turbine driven DFIGs using the conventional vector controls in a detailed model of a DFIG that represents power electronics (PE converters with device level models and proposes an average model eliminating the PE converters. The PSCAD/EMTDC™ (4.6 electromagnetic transient simulation software is used to develop the detailed and the proposing average model of a DFIG. The comparison of the two models reveals that the designed average DFIG model is adequate for simulating and analyzing most of the transient conditions.

  20. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Modeling of Turbulent Free Shear Layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Oleg

    2017-11-01

    Turbulent mixing of gases in free shear layers is simulated using a weighted essentially nonoscillatory implementation of ɛ- and L-based Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes models. Specifically, the air/air shear layer with velocity ratio 0.6 studied experimentally by Bell and Mehta (1990) is modeled. The detailed predictions of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate and lengthscale models are compared to one another, and to the experimental data. The role of analytical, self-similar solutions for model calibration and physical insights is also discussed. It is shown that turbulent lengthscale-based models are unable to predict both the growth parameter (spreading rate) and turbulent kinetic energy normalized by the square of the velocity difference of the streams. The terms in the K, ɛ, and L equation budgets are compared between the models, and it is shown that the production and destruction mechanisms are substantially different in the ɛ and L equations. Application of the turbulence models to the Brown and Roshko (1974) experiments with streams having various velocity and density ratios is also briefly discussed. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  1. Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X.

    2015-12-01

    A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

  2. Time series forecasting using ERNN and QR based on Bayesian model averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pwasong, Augustine; Sathasivam, Saratha

    2017-08-01

    The Bayesian model averaging technique is a multi-model combination technique. The technique was employed to amalgamate the Elman recurrent neural network (ERNN) technique with the quadratic regression (QR) technique. The amalgamation produced a hybrid technique known as the hybrid ERNN-QR technique. The potentials of forecasting with the hybrid technique are compared with the forecasting capabilities of individual techniques of ERNN and QR. The outcome revealed that the hybrid technique is superior to the individual techniques in the mean square error sense.

  3. A Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming model for daily streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danandeh Mehr, Ali; Kahya, Ercan

    2017-06-01

    Genetic programming (GP) is able to systematically explore alternative model structures of different accuracy and complexity from observed input and output data. The effectiveness of GP in hydrological system identification has been recognized in recent studies. However, selecting a parsimonious (accurate and simple) model from such alternatives still remains a question. This paper proposes a Pareto-optimal moving average multigene genetic programming (MA-MGGP) approach to develop a parsimonious model for single-station streamflow prediction. The three main components of the approach that take us from observed data to a validated model are: (1) data pre-processing, (2) system identification and (3) system simplification. The data pre-processing ingredient uses a simple moving average filter to diminish the lagged prediction effect of stand-alone data-driven models. The multigene ingredient of the model tends to identify the underlying nonlinear system with expressions simpler than classical monolithic GP and, eventually simplification component exploits Pareto front plot to select a parsimonious model through an interactive complexity-efficiency trade-off. The approach was tested using the daily streamflow records from a station on Senoz Stream, Turkey. Comparing to the efficiency results of stand-alone GP, MGGP, and conventional multi linear regression prediction models as benchmarks, the proposed Pareto-optimal MA-MGGP model put forward a parsimonious solution, which has a noteworthy importance of being applied in practice. In addition, the approach allows the user to enter human insight into the problem to examine evolved models and pick the best performing programs out for further analysis.

  4. Benefits of Dominance over Additive Models for the Estimation of Average Effects in the Presence of Dominance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pascal Duenk

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In quantitative genetics, the average effect at a single locus can be estimated by an additive (A model, or an additive plus dominance (AD model. In the presence of dominance, the AD-model is expected to be more accurate, because the A-model falsely assumes that residuals are independent and identically distributed. Our objective was to investigate the accuracy of an estimated average effect (α^ in the presence of dominance, using either a single locus A-model or AD-model. Estimation was based on a finite sample from a large population in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE, and the root mean squared error of α^ was calculated for several broad-sense heritabilities, sample sizes, and sizes of the dominance effect. Results show that with the A-model, both sampling deviations of genotype frequencies from HWE frequencies and sampling deviations of allele frequencies contributed to the error. With the AD-model, only sampling deviations of allele frequencies contributed to the error, provided that all three genotype classes were sampled. In the presence of dominance, the root mean squared error of α^ with the AD-model was always smaller than with the A-model, even when the heritability was less than one. Remarkably, in the absence of dominance, there was no disadvantage of fitting dominance. In conclusion, the AD-model yields more accurate estimates of average effects from a finite sample, because it is more robust against sampling deviations from HWE frequencies than the A-model. Genetic models that include dominance, therefore, yield higher accuracies of estimated average effects than purely additive models when dominance is present.

  5. Average intensity and spreading of partially coherent model beams propagating in a turbulent biological tissue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yuqian; Zhang, Yixin; Wang, Qiu; Hu, Zhengda

    2016-01-01

    For Gaussian beams with three different partially coherent models, including Gaussian-Schell model (GSM), Laguerre-Gaussian Schell-model (LGSM) and Bessel-Gaussian Schell-model (BGSM) beams propagating through a biological turbulent tissue, the expression of the spatial coherence radius of a spherical wave propagating in a turbulent biological tissue, and the average intensity and beam spreading for GSM, LGSM and BGSM beams are derived based on the fractal model of power spectrum of refractive-index variations in biological tissue. Effects of partially coherent model and parameters of biological turbulence on such beams are studied in numerical simulations. Our results reveal that the spreading of GSM beams is smaller than LGSM and BGSM beams on the same conditions, and the beam with larger source coherence width has smaller beam spreading than that with smaller coherence width. The results are useful for any applications involved light beam propagation through tissues, especially the cases where the average intensity and spreading properties of the light should be taken into account to evaluate the system performance and investigations in the structures of biological tissue. - Highlights: • Spatial coherence radius of a spherical wave propagating in a turbulent biological tissue is developed. • Expressions of average intensity and beam spreading for GSM, LGSM and BGSM beams in a turbulent biological tissue are derived. • The contrast for the three partially coherent model beams is shown in numerical simulations. • The results are useful for any applications involved light beam propagation through tissues.

  6. Method for Pre-Conditioning a Measured Surface Height Map for Model Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sidick, Erkin

    2012-01-01

    This software allows one to up-sample or down-sample a measured surface map for model validation, not only without introducing any re-sampling errors, but also eliminating the existing measurement noise and measurement errors. Because the re-sampling of a surface map is accomplished based on the analytical expressions of Zernike-polynomials and a power spectral density model, such re-sampling does not introduce any aliasing and interpolation errors as is done by the conventional interpolation and FFT-based (fast-Fourier-transform-based) spatial-filtering method. Also, this new method automatically eliminates the measurement noise and other measurement errors such as artificial discontinuity. The developmental cycle of an optical system, such as a space telescope, includes, but is not limited to, the following two steps: (1) deriving requirements or specs on the optical quality of individual optics before they are fabricated through optical modeling and simulations, and (2) validating the optical model using the measured surface height maps after all optics are fabricated. There are a number of computational issues related to model validation, one of which is the "pre-conditioning" or pre-processing of the measured surface maps before using them in a model validation software tool. This software addresses the following issues: (1) up- or down-sampling a measured surface map to match it with the gridded data format of a model validation tool, and (2) eliminating the surface measurement noise or measurement errors such that the resulted surface height map is continuous or smoothly-varying. So far, the preferred method used for re-sampling a surface map is two-dimensional interpolation. The main problem of this method is that the same pixel can take different values when the method of interpolation is changed among the different methods such as the "nearest," "linear," "cubic," and "spline" fitting in Matlab. The conventional, FFT-based spatial filtering method used to

  7. Assimilation of time-averaged observations in a quasi-geostrophic atmospheric jet model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huntley, Helga S. [University of Washington, Department of Applied Mathematics, Seattle, WA (United States); University of Delaware, School of Marine Science and Policy, Newark, DE (United States); Hakim, Gregory J. [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2010-11-15

    The problem of reconstructing past climates from a sparse network of noisy time-averaged observations is considered with a novel ensemble Kalman filter approach. Results for a sparse network of 100 idealized observations for a quasi-geostrophic model of a jet interacting with a mountain reveal that, for a wide range of observation averaging times, analysis errors are reduced by about 50% relative to the control case without assimilation. Results are robust to changes to observational error, the number of observations, and an imperfect model. Specifically, analysis errors are reduced relative to the control case for observations having errors up to three times the climatological variance for a fixed 100-station network, and for networks consisting of ten or more stations when observational errors are fixed at one-third the climatological variance. In the limit of small numbers of observations, station location becomes critically important, motivating an optimally determined network. A network of fifteen optimally determined observations reduces analysis errors by 30% relative to the control, as compared to 50% for a randomly chosen network of 100 observations. (orig.)

  8. An empirical investigation on the forecasting ability of mallows model averaging in a macro economic environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper investigates the forecasting ability of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA) by conducting an empirical analysis of five Asia countries, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia and China's GDP growth rate. Results reveal that MMA has no noticeable differences in predictive ability compared to the general autoregressive fractional integrated moving average model (ARFIMA) and its predictive ability is sensitive to the effect of financial crisis. MMA could be an alternative forecasting method for samples without recent outliers such as financial crisis.

  9. Comparison of depth-averaged concentration and bed load flux sediment transport models of dam-break flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-heng Zhao

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents numerical simulations of dam-break flow over a movable bed. Two different mathematical models were compared: a fully coupled formulation of shallow water equations with erosion and deposition terms (a depth-averaged concentration flux model, and shallow water equations with a fully coupled Exner equation (a bed load flux model. Both models were discretized using the cell-centered finite volume method, and a second-order Godunov-type scheme was used to solve the equations. The numerical flux was calculated using a Harten, Lax, and van Leer approximate Riemann solver with the contact wave restored (HLLC. A novel slope source term treatment that considers the density change was introduced to the depth-averaged concentration flux model to obtain higher-order accuracy. A source term that accounts for the sediment flux was added to the bed load flux model to reflect the influence of sediment movement on the momentum of the water. In a one-dimensional test case, a sensitivity study on different model parameters was carried out. For the depth-averaged concentration flux model, Manning's coefficient and sediment porosity values showed an almost linear relationship with the bottom change, and for the bed load flux model, the sediment porosity was identified as the most sensitive parameter. The capabilities and limitations of both model concepts are demonstrated in a benchmark experimental test case dealing with dam-break flow over variable bed topography.

  10. Properties of bright solitons in averaged and unaveraged models for SDG fibres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Ajit; Kumar, Atul

    1996-04-01

    Using the slowly varying envelope approximation and averaging over the fibre cross-section the evolution equation for optical pulses in semiconductor-doped glass (SDG) fibres is derived from the nonlinear wave equation. Bright soliton solutions of this equation are obtained numerically and their properties are studied and compared with those of the bright solitons in the unaveraged model.

  11. Averaging of the Equations of the Standard Cosmological Model over Rapid Oscillations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ignat'ev, Yu. G.; Samigullina, A. R.

    2017-11-01

    An averaging of the equations of the standard cosmological model (SCM) is carried out. It is shown that the main contribution to the macroscopic energy density of the scalar field comes from its microscopic oscillations with the Compton period. The effective macroscopic equation of state of the oscillations of the scalar field corresponds to the nonrelativistic limit.

  12. Average is Over

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliazar, Iddo

    2018-02-01

    The popular perception of statistical distributions is depicted by the iconic bell curve which comprises of a massive bulk of 'middle-class' values, and two thin tails - one of small left-wing values, and one of large right-wing values. The shape of the bell curve is unimodal, and its peak represents both the mode and the mean. Thomas Friedman, the famous New York Times columnist, recently asserted that we have entered a human era in which "Average is Over" . In this paper we present mathematical models for the phenomenon that Friedman highlighted. While the models are derived via different modeling approaches, they share a common foundation. Inherent tipping points cause the models to phase-shift from a 'normal' bell-shape statistical behavior to an 'anomalous' statistical behavior: the unimodal shape changes to an unbounded monotone shape, the mode vanishes, and the mean diverges. Hence: (i) there is an explosion of small values; (ii) large values become super-large; (iii) 'middle-class' values are wiped out, leaving an infinite rift between the small and the super large values; and (iv) "Average is Over" indeed.

  13. A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by

  14. Averaging Robertson-Walker cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, Iain A.; Robbers, Georg; Behrend, Juliane

    2009-01-01

    The cosmological backreaction arises when one directly averages the Einstein equations to recover an effective Robertson-Walker cosmology, rather than assuming a background a priori. While usually discussed in the context of dark energy, strictly speaking any cosmological model should be recovered from such a procedure. We apply the scalar spatial averaging formalism for the first time to linear Robertson-Walker universes containing matter, radiation and dark energy. The formalism employed is general and incorporates systems of multiple fluids with ease, allowing us to consider quantitatively the universe from deep radiation domination up to the present day in a natural, unified manner. Employing modified Boltzmann codes we evaluate numerically the discrepancies between the assumed and the averaged behaviour arising from the quadratic terms, finding the largest deviations for an Einstein-de Sitter universe, increasing rapidly with Hubble rate to a 0.01% effect for h = 0.701. For the ΛCDM concordance model, the backreaction is of the order of Ω eff 0 ≈ 4 × 10 −6 , with those for dark energy models being within a factor of two or three. The impacts at recombination are of the order of 10 −8 and those in deep radiation domination asymptote to a constant value. While the effective equations of state of the backreactions in Einstein-de Sitter, concordance and quintessence models are generally dust-like, a backreaction with an equation of state w eff < −1/3 can be found for strongly phantom models

  15. The PIT-trap-A "model-free" bootstrap procedure for inference about regression models with discrete, multivariate responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warton, David I; Thibaut, Loïc; Wang, Yi Alice

    2017-01-01

    Bootstrap methods are widely used in statistics, and bootstrapping of residuals can be especially useful in the regression context. However, difficulties are encountered extending residual resampling to regression settings where residuals are not identically distributed (thus not amenable to bootstrapping)-common examples including logistic or Poisson regression and generalizations to handle clustered or multivariate data, such as generalised estimating equations. We propose a bootstrap method based on probability integral transform (PIT-) residuals, which we call the PIT-trap, which assumes data come from some marginal distribution F of known parametric form. This method can be understood as a type of "model-free bootstrap", adapted to the problem of discrete and highly multivariate data. PIT-residuals have the key property that they are (asymptotically) pivotal. The PIT-trap thus inherits the key property, not afforded by any other residual resampling approach, that the marginal distribution of data can be preserved under PIT-trapping. This in turn enables the derivation of some standard bootstrap properties, including second-order correctness of pivotal PIT-trap test statistics. In multivariate data, bootstrapping rows of PIT-residuals affords the property that it preserves correlation in data without the need for it to be modelled, a key point of difference as compared to a parametric bootstrap. The proposed method is illustrated on an example involving multivariate abundance data in ecology, and demonstrated via simulation to have improved properties as compared to competing resampling methods.

  16. Real-time traffic signal optimization model based on average delay time per person

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Real-time traffic signal control is very important for relieving urban traffic congestion. Many existing traffic control models were formulated using optimization approach, with the objective functions of minimizing vehicle delay time. To improve people’s trip efficiency, this article aims to minimize delay time per person. Based on the time-varying traffic flow data at intersections, the article first fits curves of accumulative arrival and departure vehicles, as well as the corresponding functions. Moreover, this article transfers vehicle delay time to personal delay time using average passenger load of cars and buses, employs such time as the objective function, and proposes a signal timing optimization model for intersections to achieve real-time signal parameters, including cycle length and green time. This research further implements a case study based on practical data collected at an intersection in Beijing, China. The average delay time per person and queue length are employed as evaluation indices to show the performances of the model. The results show that the proposed methodology is capable of improving traffic efficiency and is very effective for real-world applications.

  17. Adaptive neuro-fuzzy based inferential sensor model for estimating the average air temperature in space heating systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jassar, S.; Zhao, L. [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON (Canada); Liao, Z. [Department of Architectural Science, Ryerson University (Canada)

    2009-08-15

    The heating systems are conventionally controlled by open-loop control systems because of the absence of practical methods for estimating average air temperature in the built environment. An inferential sensor model, based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system modeling, for estimating the average air temperature in multi-zone space heating systems is developed. This modeling technique has the advantage of expert knowledge of fuzzy inference systems (FISs) and learning capability of artificial neural networks (ANNs). A hybrid learning algorithm, which combines the least-square method and the back-propagation algorithm, is used to identify the parameters of the network. This paper describes an adaptive network based inferential sensor that can be used to design closed-loop control for space heating systems. The research aims to improve the overall performance of heating systems, in terms of energy efficiency and thermal comfort. The average air temperature results estimated by using the developed model are strongly in agreement with the experimental results. (author)

  18. Average spectral power changes at the hippocampal electroencephalogram in schizophrenia model induced by ketamine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Luis Rafael L; Borges, Lucas T N; Silva, Joyse M F; de Andrade, Francisca Roselin O; Barbosa, Talita M; Oliveira, Tatiana Q; Macedo, Danielle; Lima, Ricardo F; Dantas, Leonardo P; Patrocinio, Manoel Cláudio A; do Vale, Otoni C; Vasconcelos, Silvânia M M

    2018-02-01

    The use of ketamine (Ket) as a pharmacological model of schizophrenia is an important tool for understanding the main mechanisms of glutamatergic regulated neural oscillations. Thus, the aim of the current study was to evaluate Ket-induced changes in the average spectral power using the hippocampal quantitative electroencephalography (QEEG). To this end, male Wistar rats were submitted to a stereotactic surgery for the implantation of an electrode in the right hippocampus. After three days, the animals were divided into four groups that were treated for 10 consecutive days with Ket (10, 50, or 100 mg/kg). Brainwaves were captured on the 1st or 10th day, respectively, to acute or repeated treatments. The administration of Ket (10, 50, or 100 mg/kg), compared with controls, induced changes in the hippocampal average spectral power of delta, theta, alpha, gamma low or high waves, after acute or repeated treatments. Therefore, based on the alterations in the average spectral power of hippocampal waves induced by Ket, our findings might provide a basis for the use of hippocampal QEEG in animal models of schizophrenia. © 2017 Société Française de Pharmacologie et de Thérapeutique.

  19. The dynamics of multimodal integration: The averaging diffusion model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Brandon M; Gao, Juan; Koenig, Scott; Palfy, Dylan; L McClelland, James

    2017-12-01

    We combine extant theories of evidence accumulation and multi-modal integration to develop an integrated framework for modeling multimodal integration as a process that unfolds in real time. Many studies have formulated sensory processing as a dynamic process where noisy samples of evidence are accumulated until a decision is made. However, these studies are often limited to a single sensory modality. Studies of multimodal stimulus integration have focused on how best to combine different sources of information to elicit a judgment. These studies are often limited to a single time point, typically after the integration process has occurred. We address these limitations by combining the two approaches. Experimentally, we present data that allow us to study the time course of evidence accumulation within each of the visual and auditory domains as well as in a bimodal condition. Theoretically, we develop a new Averaging Diffusion Model in which the decision variable is the mean rather than the sum of evidence samples and use it as a base for comparing three alternative models of multimodal integration, allowing us to assess the optimality of this integration. The outcome reveals rich individual differences in multimodal integration: while some subjects' data are consistent with adaptive optimal integration, reweighting sources of evidence as their relative reliability changes during evidence integration, others exhibit patterns inconsistent with optimality.

  20. Reynolds averaged turbulence modelling using deep neural networks with embedded invariance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ling, Julia; Kurzawski, Andrew; Templeton, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    There exists significant demand for improved Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) turbulence models that are informed by and can represent a richer set of turbulence physics. This paper presents a method of using deep neural networks to learn a model for the Reynolds stress anisotropy tensor from high-fidelity simulation data. A novel neural network architecture is proposed which uses a multiplicative layer with an invariant tensor basis to embed Galilean invariance into the predicted anisotropy tensor. It is demonstrated that this neural network architecture provides improved prediction accuracy compared with a generic neural network architecture that does not embed this invariance property. Furthermore, the Reynolds stress anisotropy predictions of this invariant neural network are propagated through to the velocity field for two test cases. For both test cases, significant improvement versus baseline RANS linear eddy viscosity and nonlinear eddy viscosity models is demonstrated.

  1. Bootstrap Determination of the Co-Integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, G.; Rahbek, Anders; Taylor, A.M.R.

    2014-01-01

    In a recent paper Cavaliere et al. (2012) develop bootstrap implementations of the (pseudo-) likelihood ratio (PLR) co-integration rank test and associated sequential rank determination procedure of Johansen (1996). The bootstrap samples are constructed using the restricted parameter estimates...... of the underlying vector autoregressive (VAR) model which obtain under the reduced rank null hypothesis. They propose methods based on an independent and individual distributed (i.i.d.) bootstrap resampling scheme and establish the validity of their proposed bootstrap procedures in the context of a co......-integrated VAR model with i.i.d. innovations. In this paper we investigate the properties of their bootstrap procedures, together with analogous procedures based on a wild bootstrap resampling scheme, when time-varying behavior is present in either the conditional or unconditional variance of the innovations. We...

  2. Applications of Analytical Self-Similar Solutions of Reynolds-Averaged Models for Instability-Induced Turbulent Mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartland, Tucker; Schilling, Oleg

    2017-11-01

    Analytical self-similar solutions to several families of single- and two-scale, eddy viscosity and Reynolds stress turbulence models are presented for Rayleigh-Taylor, Richtmyer-Meshkov, and Kelvin-Helmholtz instability-induced turbulent mixing. The use of algebraic relationships between model coefficients and physical observables (e.g., experimental growth rates) following from the self-similar solutions to calibrate a member of a given family of turbulence models is shown. It is demonstrated numerically that the algebraic relations accurately predict the value and variation of physical outputs of a Reynolds-averaged simulation in flow regimes that are consistent with the simplifying assumptions used to derive the solutions. The use of experimental and numerical simulation data on Reynolds stress anisotropy ratios to calibrate a Reynolds stress model is briefly illustrated. The implications of the analytical solutions for future Reynolds-averaged modeling of hydrodynamic instability-induced mixing are briefly discussed. This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  3. Internal validation of risk models in clustered data: a comparison of bootstrap schemes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwmeester, W.; Moons, K.G.M.; Kappen, T.H.; van Klei, W.A.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Eijkemans, M.J.C.; Vergouwe, Y.

    2013-01-01

    Internal validity of a risk model can be studied efficiently with bootstrapping to assess possible optimism in model performance. Assumptions of the regular bootstrap are violated when the development data are clustered. We compared alternative resampling schemes in clustered data for the estimation

  4. A Two-Factor Autoregressive Moving Average Model Based on Fuzzy Fluctuation Logical Relationships

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Guan

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Many of the existing autoregressive moving average (ARMA forecast models are based on one main factor. In this paper, we proposed a new two-factor first-order ARMA forecast model based on fuzzy fluctuation logical relationships of both a main factor and a secondary factor of a historical training time series. Firstly, we generated a fluctuation time series (FTS for two factors by calculating the difference of each data point with its previous day, then finding the absolute means of the two FTSs. We then constructed a fuzzy fluctuation time series (FFTS according to the defined linguistic sets. The next step was establishing fuzzy fluctuation logical relation groups (FFLRGs for a two-factor first-order autoregressive (AR(1 model and forecasting the training data with the AR(1 model. Then we built FFLRGs for a two-factor first-order autoregressive moving average (ARMA(1,m model. Lastly, we forecasted test data with the ARMA(1,m model. To illustrate the performance of our model, we used real Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX and Dow Jones datasets as a secondary factor to forecast TAIEX. The experiment results indicate that the proposed two-factor fluctuation ARMA method outperformed the one-factor method based on real historic data. The secondary factor may have some effects on the main factor and thereby impact the forecasting results. Using fuzzified fluctuations rather than fuzzified real data could avoid the influence of extreme values in historic data, which performs negatively while forecasting. To verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the model, we also employed our method to forecast the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SHSECI from 2001 to 2015 and the international gold price from 2000 to 2010.

  5. An axially averaged-radial transport model of tokamak edge plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prinja, A.K.; Conn, R.W.

    1984-01-01

    A two-zone axially averaged-radial transport model for edge plasmas is described that incorporates parallel electron and ion conduction, localized recycling, parallel electron pressure gradient effects and sheath losses. Results for high recycling show that the radial electron temperature profile is determined by parallel electron conduction over short radial distances (proportional 3 cm). At larger radius where Tsub(e) has fallen appreciably, convective transport becomes equally important. The downstream density and ion temperature profiles are very flat over the region where electron conduction dominates. This is seen to result from a sharply decaying velocity profile that follows the radial electron temperature. A one-dimensional analytical recycling model shows that at high neutral pumping rates, the plasma density at the plate, nsub(ia), scales linearly with the unperturbed background density, nsub(io). When ionization dominates nsub(ia)/nsub(io) proportional exp(nsub(io)) while in the intermediate regime nsub(ia)/nsub(io) proportional exp(proportional nsub(io)). Such behavior is qualitatively in accord with experimental observations. (orig.)

  6. The flattening of the average potential in models with fermions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bornholdt, S.

    1993-01-01

    The average potential is a scale dependent scalar effective potential. In a phase with spontaneous symmetry breaking its inner region becomes flat as the averaging extends over infinite volume and the average potential approaches the convex effective potential. Fermion fluctuations affect the shape of the average potential in this region and its flattening with decreasing physical scale. They have to be taken into account to find the true minimum of the scalar potential which determines the scale of spontaneous symmetry breaking. (orig.)

  7. Maximum stress estimation model for multi-span waler beams with deflections at the supports using average strains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Woo; Oh, Byung Kwan; Park, Hyo Seon

    2015-03-30

    The safety of a multi-span waler beam subjected simultaneously to a distributed load and deflections at its supports can be secured by limiting the maximum stress of the beam to a specific value to prevent the beam from reaching a limit state for failure or collapse. Despite the fact that the vast majority of accidents on construction sites occur at waler beams in retaining wall systems, no safety monitoring model that can consider deflections at the supports of the beam is available. In this paper, a maximum stress estimation model for a waler beam based on average strains measured from vibrating wire strain gauges (VWSGs), the most frequently used sensors in construction field, is presented. The model is derived by defining the relationship between the maximum stress and the average strains measured from VWSGs. In addition to the maximum stress, support reactions, deflections at supports, and the magnitudes of distributed loads for the beam structure can be identified by the estimation model using the average strains. Using simulation tests on two multi-span beams, the performance of the model is evaluated by estimating maximum stress, deflections at supports, support reactions, and the magnitudes of distributed loads.

  8. On the relation between Kaiser–Bessel blob and tube of response based modelling of the system matrix in iterative PET image reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lougovski, Alexandr; Hofheinz, Frank; Maus, Jens; Schramm, Georg; Van den Hoff, Jörg

    2015-01-01

    We investigate the question of how the blob approach is related to tube of response based modelling of the system matrix. In our model, the tube of response (TOR) is approximated as a cylinder with constant density (TOR-CD) and the cubic voxels are replaced by spheres. Here we investigate a modification of the TOR model that makes it effectively equivalent to the blob model, which models the intersection of lines of response (LORs) with radially variant basis functions (‘blobs’) replacing the cubic voxels. Implications of the achieved equivalence regarding the necessity of final resampling in blob-based reconstructions are considered. We extended TOR-CD to a variable density tube model (TOR-VD) that yields a weighting function (defining all system matrix elements) which is essentially identical to that of the blob model. The variable density of TOR-VD was modelled by a Gaussian and a Kaiser–Bessel function, respectively. The free parameters of both model functions were determined by fitting the corresponding weighting function to the weighting function of the blob model. TOR-CD and the best-fitting TOR-VD were compared to the blob model with a final resampling step (BLOB-RS) and without resampling (BLOB-NRS) in phantom studies. For three different contrast ratios and two different voxel sizes, resolution noise curves were generated. TOR-VD and BLOB-NRS lead to nearly identical images for all investigated contrast ratios and voxel sizes. Both models showed strong Gibbs artefacts at 4 mm voxel size, while at 2 mm voxel size there were no Gibbs artefacts visible. The spatial resolution was similar to the resolution with TOR-CD in all cases. The resampling step removed most of the Gibbs artefacts and reduced the noise level but also degraded the spatial resolution substantially. We conclude that the blob model can be considered just as a special case of a TOR-based reconstruction. The latter approach provides a more natural description of the detection process

  9. Averaging operations on matrices

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-07-03

    Jul 3, 2014 ... Role of Positive Definite Matrices. • Diffusion Tensor Imaging: 3 × 3 pd matrices model water flow at each voxel of brain scan. • Elasticity: 6 × 6 pd matrices model stress tensors. • Machine Learning: n × n pd matrices occur as kernel matrices. Tanvi Jain. Averaging operations on matrices ...

  10. A Novel Robust Audio Watermarking Algorithm by Modifying the Average Amplitude in Transform Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuling Wu

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve the robustness and imperceptibility in practical application, a novel audio watermarking algorithm with strong robustness is proposed by exploring the multi-resolution characteristic of discrete wavelet transform (DWT and the energy compaction capability of discrete cosine transform (DCT. The human auditory system is insensitive to the minor changes in the frequency components of the audio signal, so the watermarks can be embedded by slightly modifying the frequency components of the audio signal. The audio fragments segmented from the cover audio signal are decomposed by DWT to obtain several groups of wavelet coefficients with different frequency bands, and then the fourth level detail coefficient is selected to be divided into the former packet and the latter packet, which are executed for DCT to get two sets of transform domain coefficients (TDC respectively. Finally, the average amplitudes of the two sets of TDC are modified to embed the binary image watermark according to the special embedding rule. The watermark extraction is blind without the carrier audio signal. Experimental results confirm that the proposed algorithm has good imperceptibility, large payload capacity and strong robustness when resisting against various attacks such as MP3 compression, low-pass filtering, re-sampling, re-quantization, amplitude scaling, echo addition and noise corruption.

  11. Demonstration of two-phase Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) methods potentiality to give information to averaged models: application to bubbles column

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magdeleine, S.

    2009-11-01

    This work is a part of a long term project that aims at using two-phase Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) in order to give information to averaged models. For now, it is limited to isothermal bubbly flows with no phase change. It could be subdivided in two parts: Firstly, theoretical developments are made in order to build an equivalent of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) for two phase flows called Interfaces and Sub-grid Scales (ISS). After the implementation of the ISS model in our code called Trio U , a set of various cases is used to validate this model. Then, special test are made in order to optimize the model for our particular bubbly flows. Thus we showed the capacity of the ISS model to produce a cheap pertinent solution. Secondly, we use the ISS model to perform simulations of bubbly flows in column. Results of these simulations are averaged to obtain quantities that appear in mass, momentum and interfacial area density balances. Thus, we processed to an a priori test of a complete one dimensional averaged model.We showed that this model predicts well the simplest flows (laminar and monodisperse). Moreover, the hypothesis of one pressure, which is often made in averaged model like CATHARE, NEPTUNE and RELAP5, is satisfied in such flows. At the opposite, without a polydisperse model, the drag is over-predicted and the uncorrelated A i flux needs a closure law. Finally, we showed that in turbulent flows, fluctuations of velocity and pressure in the liquid phase are not represented by the tested averaged model. (author)

  12. The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco

    innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a smaller way. Apart from investigating directly the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses, we also use the model condence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performance.......We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differer...

  13. A method to test the reproducibility and to improve performance of computer-aided detection schemes for digitized mammograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Bin; Gur, David; Good, Walter F.; Hardesty, Lara A.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a new method for assessment of the reproducibility of computer-aided detection (CAD) schemes for digitized mammograms and to evaluate the possibility of using the implemented approach for improving CAD performance. Two thousand digitized mammograms (representing 500 cases) with 300 depicted verified masses were selected in the study. Series of images were generated for each digitized image by resampling after a series of slight image rotations. A CAD scheme developed in our laboratory was applied to all images to detect suspicious mass regions. We evaluated the reproducibility of the scheme using the detection sensitivity and false-positive rates for the original and resampled images. We also explored the possibility of improving CAD performance using three methods of combining results from the original and resampled images, including simple grouping, averaging output scores, and averaging output scores after grouping. The CAD scheme generated a detection score (from 0 to 1) for each identified suspicious region. A region with a detection score >0.5 was considered as positive. The CAD scheme detected 238 masses (79.3% case-based sensitivity) and identified 1093 false-positive regions (average 0.55 per image) in the original image dataset. In eleven repeated tests using original and ten sets of rotated and resampled images, the scheme detected a maximum of 271 masses and identified as many as 2359 false-positive regions. Two hundred and eighteen masses (80.4%) and 618 false-positive regions (26.2%) were detected in all 11 sets of images. Combining detection results improved reproducibility and the overall CAD performance. In the range of an average false-positive detection rate between 0.5 and 1 per image, the sensitivity of the scheme could be increased approximately 5% after averaging the scores of the regions detected in at least four images. At low false-positive rate (e.g., ≤average 0.3 per image), the grouping method

  14. Modeling an Application's Theoretical Minimum and Average Transactional Response Times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paiz, Mary Rose [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-04-01

    The theoretical minimum transactional response time of an application serves as a ba- sis for the expected response time. The lower threshold for the minimum response time represents the minimum amount of time that the application should take to complete a transaction. Knowing the lower threshold is beneficial in detecting anomalies that are re- sults of unsuccessful transactions. On the converse, when an application's response time falls above an upper threshold, there is likely an anomaly in the application that is causing unusual performance issues in the transaction. This report explains how the non-stationary Generalized Extreme Value distribution is used to estimate the lower threshold of an ap- plication's daily minimum transactional response time. It also explains how the seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average time series model is used to estimate the upper threshold for an application's average transactional response time.

  15. Forecasting Rice Productivity and Production of Odisha, India, Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Tripathi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of rice area, production, and productivity of Odisha was made from the historical data of 1950-51 to 2008-09 by using univariate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA models and was compared with the forecasted all Indian data. The autoregressive (p and moving average (q parameters were identified based on the significant spikes in the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF and autocorrelation function (ACF of the different time series. ARIMA (2, 1, 0 model was found suitable for all Indian rice productivity and production, whereas ARIMA (1, 1, 1 was best fitted for forecasting of rice productivity and production in Odisha. Prediction was made for the immediate next three years, that is, 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10, using the best fitted ARIMA models based on minimum value of the selection criterion, that is, Akaike information criteria (AIC and Schwarz-Bayesian information criteria (SBC. The performances of models were validated by comparing with percentage deviation from the actual values and mean absolute percent error (MAPE, which was found to be 0.61 and 2.99% for the area under rice in Odisha and India, respectively. Similarly for prediction of rice production and productivity in Odisha and India, the MAPE was found to be less than 6%.

  16. Retrospective cost adaptive Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes k-ω model for data-driven unsteady turbulent simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhiyong; Hoagg, Jesse B.; Martin, Alexandre; Bailey, Sean C. C.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents a data-driven computational model for simulating unsteady turbulent flows, where sparse measurement data is available. The model uses the retrospective cost adaptation (RCA) algorithm to automatically adjust the closure coefficients of the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) k- ω turbulence equations to improve agreement between the simulated flow and the measurements. The RCA-RANS k- ω model is verified for steady flow using a pipe-flow test case and for unsteady flow using a surface-mounted-cube test case. Measurements used for adaptation of the verification cases are obtained from baseline simulations with known closure coefficients. These verification test cases demonstrate that the RCA-RANS k- ω model can successfully adapt the closure coefficients to improve agreement between the simulated flow field and a set of sparse flow-field measurements. Furthermore, the RCA-RANS k- ω model improves agreement between the simulated flow and the baseline flow at locations at which measurements do not exist. The RCA-RANS k- ω model is also validated with experimental data from 2 test cases: steady pipe flow, and unsteady flow past a square cylinder. In both test cases, the adaptation improves agreement with experimental data in comparison to the results from a non-adaptive RANS k- ω model that uses the standard values of the k- ω closure coefficients. For the steady pipe flow, adaptation is driven by mean stream-wise velocity measurements at 24 locations along the pipe radius. The RCA-RANS k- ω model reduces the average velocity error at these locations by over 35%. For the unsteady flow over a square cylinder, adaptation is driven by time-varying surface pressure measurements at 2 locations on the square cylinder. The RCA-RANS k- ω model reduces the average surface-pressure error at these locations by 88.8%.

  17. Bootstrap Determination of the Co-integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Rahbek, Anders; Taylor, A.M.Robert

    In a recent paper Cavaliere et al. (2012) develop bootstrap implementations of the (pseudo-) likelihood ratio [PLR] co-integration rank test and associated sequential rank determination procedure of Johansen (1996). The bootstrap samples are constructed using the restricted parameter estimates...... of the underlying VAR model which obtain under the reduced rank null hypothesis. They propose methods based on an i.i.d. bootstrap re-sampling scheme and establish the validity of their proposed bootstrap procedures in the context of a co-integrated VAR model with i.i.d. innovations. In this paper we investigate...... the properties of their bootstrap procedures, together with analogous procedures based on a wild bootstrap re-sampling scheme, when time-varying behaviour is present in either the conditional or unconditional variance of the innovations. We show that the bootstrap PLR tests are asymptotically correctly sized and...

  18. Bootstrap Determination of the Co-Integration Rank in Heteroskedastic VAR Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Rahbek, Anders; Taylor, A. M. Robert

    In a recent paper Cavaliere et al. (2012) develop bootstrap implementations of the (pseudo-) likelihood ratio [PLR] co-integration rank test and associated sequential rank determination procedure of Johansen (1996). The bootstrap samples are constructed using the restricted parameter estimates...... of the underlying VAR model which obtain under the reduced rank null hypothesis. They propose methods based on an i.i.d. bootstrap re-sampling scheme and establish the validity of their proposed bootstrap procedures in the context of a co-integrated VAR model with i.i.d. innovations. In this paper we investigate...... the properties of their bootstrap procedures, together with analogous procedures based on a wild bootstrap re-sampling scheme, when time-varying behaviour is present in either the conditional or unconditional variance of the innovations. We show that the bootstrap PLR tests are asymptotically correctly sized and...

  19. Flow and transport simulation of Madeira River using three depth-averaged two-equation turbulence closure models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-ren Yu

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a numerical simulation in the Amazon water system, aiming to develop a quasi-three-dimensional numerical tool for refined modeling of turbulent flow and passive transport of mass in natural waters. Three depth-averaged two-equation turbulence closure models, k˜−ε˜,k˜−w˜, and k˜−ω˜ , were used to close the non-simplified quasi-three dimensional hydrodynamic fundamental governing equations. The discretized equations were solved with the advanced multi-grid iterative method using non-orthogonal body-fitted coarse and fine grids with collocated variable arrangement. Except for steady flow computation, the processes of contaminant inpouring and plume development at the beginning of discharge, caused by a side-discharge of a tributary, have also been numerically investigated. The three depth-averaged two-equation closure models are all suitable for modeling strong mixing turbulence. The newly established turbulence models such as the k˜−ω˜ model, with a higher order of magnitude of the turbulence parameter, provide a possibility for improving computational precision.

  20. Effects of stratospheric aerosol surface processes on the LLNL two-dimensional zonally averaged model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connell, P.S.; Kinnison, D.E.; Wuebbles, D.J.; Burley, J.D.; Johnston, H.S.

    1992-01-01

    We have investigated the effects of incorporating representations of heterogeneous chemical processes associated with stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosol into the LLNL two-dimensional, zonally averaged, model of the troposphere and stratosphere. Using distributions of aerosol surface area and volume density derived from SAGE 11 satellite observations, we were primarily interested in changes in partitioning within the Cl- and N- families in the lower stratosphere, compared to a model including only gas phase photochemical reactions

  1. Maximum Stress Estimation Model for Multi-Span Waler Beams with Deflections at the Supports Using Average Strains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Woo Park

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The safety of a multi-span waler beam subjected simultaneously to a distributed load and deflections at its supports can be secured by limiting the maximum stress of the beam to a specific value to prevent the beam from reaching a limit state for failure or collapse. Despite the fact that the vast majority of accidents on construction sites occur at waler beams in retaining wall systems, no safety monitoring model that can consider deflections at the supports of the beam is available. In this paper, a maximum stress estimation model for a waler beam based on average strains measured from vibrating wire strain gauges (VWSGs, the most frequently used sensors in construction field, is presented. The model is derived by defining the relationship between the maximum stress and the average strains measured from VWSGs. In addition to the maximum stress, support reactions, deflections at supports, and the magnitudes of distributed loads for the beam structure can be identified by the estimation model using the average strains. Using simulation tests on two multi-span beams, the performance of the model is evaluated by estimating maximum stress, deflections at supports, support reactions, and the magnitudes of distributed loads.

  2. Model averaging in the presence of structural uncertainty about treatment effects: influence on treatment decision and expected value of information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Malcolm J; Welton, Nicky J; Briggs, Andrew H; Ades, A E

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to estimation of Markov models with data from randomized controlled trials tend either to make a judgment about which transition(s) treatments act on, or they assume that treatment has a separate effect on every transition. An alternative is to fit a series of models that assume that treatment acts on specific transitions. Investigators can then choose among alternative models using goodness-of-fit statistics. However, structural uncertainty about any chosen parameterization will remain and this may have implications for the resulting decision and the need for further research. We describe a Bayesian approach to model estimation, and model selection. Structural uncertainty about which parameterization to use is accounted for using model averaging and we developed a formula for calculating the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in averaged models. Marginal posterior distributions are generated for each of the cost-effectiveness parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation in WinBUGS, or Monte-Carlo simulation in Excel (Microsoft Corp., Redmond, WA). We illustrate the approach with an example of treatments for asthma using aggregate-level data from a connected network of four treatments compared in three pair-wise randomized controlled trials. The standard errors of incremental net benefit using structured models is reduced by up to eight- or ninefold compared to the unstructured models, and the expected loss attaching to decision uncertainty by factors of several hundreds. Model averaging had considerable influence on the EVPI. Alternative structural assumptions can alter the treatment decision and have an overwhelming effect on model uncertainty and expected value of information. Structural uncertainty can be accounted for by model averaging, and the EVPI can be calculated for averaged models. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  3. Benefits of dominance over additive models for the estimation of average effects in the presence of dominance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duenk, Pascal; Calus, Mario P.L.; Wientjes, Yvonne C.J.; Bijma, Piter

    2017-01-01

    In quantitative genetics, the average effect at a single locus can be estimated by an additive (A) model, or an additive plus dominance (AD) model. In the presence of dominance, the AD-model is expected to be more accurate, because the A-model falsely assumes that residuals are independent and

  4. Fleet average NOx emission performance of 2004 model year light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    The On-Road Vehicle and Engine Emission Regulations came into effect on January 1, 2004. The regulations introduced more stringent national emission standards for on-road vehicles and engines, and also required that companies submit reports containing information concerning the company's fleets. This report presented a summary of the regulatory requirements relating to nitric oxide (NO x ) fleet average emissions for light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles under the new regulations. The effectiveness of the Canadian fleet average NO x emission program at achieving environmental performance objectives was also evaluated. A summary of the fleet average NO x emission performance of individual companies was presented, as well as the overall Canadian fleet average of the 2004 model year based on data submitted by companies in their end of model year reports. A total of 21 companies submitted reports covering 2004 model year vehicles in 10 test groups, comprising 1,350,719 vehicles of the 2004 model year manufactured or imported for the purpose of sale in Canada. The average NO x value for the entire Canadian LDV/LDT fleet was 0.2016463 grams per mile. The average NO x values for the entire Canadian HLDT/MDPV fleet was 0.321976 grams per mile. It was concluded that the NO x values for both fleets were consistent with the environmental performance objectives of the regulations for the 2004 model year. 9 tabs

  5. Permutation tests for goodness-of-fit testing of mathematical models to experimental data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fişek, M Hamit; Barlas, Zeynep

    2013-03-01

    This paper presents statistical procedures for improving the goodness-of-fit testing of theoretical models to data obtained from laboratory experiments. We use an experimental study in the expectation states research tradition which has been carried out in the "standardized experimental situation" associated with the program to illustrate the application of our procedures. We briefly review the expectation states research program and the fundamentals of resampling statistics as we develop our procedures in the resampling context. The first procedure we develop is a modification of the chi-square test which has been the primary statistical tool for assessing goodness of fit in the EST research program, but has problems associated with its use. We discuss these problems and suggest a procedure to overcome them. The second procedure we present, the "Average Absolute Deviation" test, is a new test and is proposed as an alternative to the chi square test, as being simpler and more informative. The third and fourth procedures are permutation versions of Jonckheere's test for ordered alternatives, and Kendall's tau(b), a rank order correlation coefficient. The fifth procedure is a new rank order goodness-of-fit test, which we call the "Deviation from Ideal Ranking" index, which we believe may be more useful than other rank order tests for assessing goodness-of-fit of models to experimental data. The application of these procedures to the sample data is illustrated in detail. We then present another laboratory study from an experimental paradigm different from the expectation states paradigm - the "network exchange" paradigm, and describe how our procedures may be applied to this data set. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Average and dispersion of the luminosity-redshift relation in the concordance model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ben-Dayan, I. [DESY Hamburg (Germany). Theory Group; Gasperini, M. [Bari Univ. (Italy). Dipt. di Fisica; Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Bari (Italy); Marozzi, G. [College de France, 75 - Paris (France); Geneve Univ. (Switzerland). Dept. de Physique Theorique and CAP; Nugier, F. [Ecole Normale Superieure CNRS, Paris (France). Laboratoire de Physique Theorique; Veneziano, G. [College de France, 75 - Paris (France); CERN, Geneva (Switzerland). Physics Dept.; New York Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Physics

    2013-03-15

    Starting from the luminosity-redshift relation recently given up to second order in the Poisson gauge, we calculate the effects of the realistic stochastic background of perturbations of the so-called concordance model on the combined light-cone and ensemble average of various functions of the luminosity distance, and on their variance, as functions of redshift. We apply a gauge-invariant light-cone averaging prescription which is free from infrared and ultraviolet divergences, making our results robust with respect to changes of the corresponding cutoffs. Our main conclusions, in part already anticipated in a recent letter for the case of a perturbation spectrum computed in the linear regime, are that such inhomogeneities not only cannot avoid the need for dark energy, but also cannot prevent, in principle, the determination of its parameters down to an accuracy of order 10{sup -3} - 10{sup -5}, depending on the averaged observable and on the regime considered for the power spectrum. However, taking into account the appropriate corrections arising in the non-linear regime, we predict an irreducible scatter of the data approaching the 10% level which, for limited statistics, will necessarily limit the attainable precision. The predicted dispersion appears to be in good agreement with current observational estimates of the distance-modulus variance due to Doppler and lensing effects (at low and high redshifts, respectively), and represents a challenge for future precision measurements.

  7. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kirti AREKAR; Rinku JAIN

    2017-01-01

    The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE) by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in...

  8. Dynamic Average-Value Modeling of Doubly-Fed Induction Generator Wind Energy Conversion Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahab, Azin

    In a Doubly-fed Induction Generator (DFIG) wind energy conversion system, the rotor of a wound rotor induction generator is connected to the grid via a partial scale ac/ac power electronic converter which controls the rotor frequency and speed. In this research, detailed models of the DFIG wind energy conversion system with Sinusoidal Pulse-Width Modulation (SPWM) scheme and Optimal Pulse-Width Modulation (OPWM) scheme for the power electronic converter are developed in detail in PSCAD/EMTDC. As the computer simulation using the detailed models tends to be computationally extensive, time consuming and even sometimes not practical in terms of speed, two modified approaches (switching-function modeling and average-value modeling) are proposed to reduce the simulation execution time. The results demonstrate that the two proposed approaches reduce the simulation execution time while the simulation results remain close to those obtained using the detailed model simulation.

  9. Incorporation of ice sheet models into an Earth system model: Focus on methodology of coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rybak, Oleg; Volodin, Evgeny; Morozova, Polina; Nevecherja, Artiom

    2018-03-01

    Elaboration of a modern Earth system model (ESM) requires incorporation of ice sheet dynamics. Coupling of an ice sheet model (ICM) to an AOGCM is complicated by essential differences in spatial and temporal scales of cryospheric, atmospheric and oceanic components. To overcome this difficulty, we apply two different approaches for the incorporation of ice sheets into an ESM. Coupling of the Antarctic ice sheet model (AISM) to the AOGCM is accomplished via using procedures of resampling, interpolation and assigning to the AISM grid points annually averaged meanings of air surface temperature and precipitation fields generated by the AOGCM. Surface melting, which takes place mainly on the margins of the Antarctic peninsula and on ice shelves fringing the continent, is currently ignored. AISM returns anomalies of surface topography back to the AOGCM. To couple the Greenland ice sheet model (GrISM) to the AOGCM, we use a simple buffer energy- and water-balance model (EWBM-G) to account for orographically-driven precipitation and other sub-grid AOGCM-generated quantities. The output of the EWBM-G consists of surface mass balance and air surface temperature to force the GrISM, and freshwater run-off to force thermohaline circulation in the oceanic block of the AOGCM. Because of a rather complex coupling procedure of GrIS compared to AIS, the paper mostly focuses on Greenland.

  10. Adaptive and self-averaging Thouless-Anderson-Palmer mean-field theory for probabilistic modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Opper, Manfred; Winther, Ole

    2001-01-01

    We develop a generalization of the Thouless-Anderson-Palmer (TAP) mean-field approach of disorder physics. which makes the method applicable to the computation of approximate averages in probabilistic models for real data. In contrast to the conventional TAP approach, where the knowledge...... of the distribution of couplings between the random variables is required, our method adapts to the concrete set of couplings. We show the significance of the approach in two ways: Our approach reproduces replica symmetric results for a wide class of toy models (assuming a nonglassy phase) with given disorder...... distributions in the thermodynamic limit. On the other hand, simulations on a real data model demonstrate that the method achieves more accurate predictions as compared to conventional TAP approaches....

  11. Validation of numerical model for cook stove using Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes based solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Md. Moinul; Hasan, Md. Abdullah Al; Rahman, Md. Mominur; Rahaman, Md. Mashiur

    2017-12-01

    Biomass fired cook stoves, for many years, have been the main cooking appliance for the rural people of developing countries. Several researches have been carried out to the find efficient stoves. In the present study, numerical model of an improved household cook stove is developed to analyze the heat transfer and flow behavior of gas during operation. The numerical model is validated with the experimental results. Computation of the numerical model is executed the using non-premixed combustion model. Reynold's averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS) equation along with the κ - ɛ model governed the turbulent flow associated within the computed domain. The computational results are in well agreement with the experiment. Developed numerical model can be used to predict the effect of different biomasses on the efficiency of the cook stove.

  12. Refining Markov state models for conformational dynamics using ensemble-averaged data and time-series trajectories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsunaga, Y.; Sugita, Y.

    2018-06-01

    A data-driven modeling scheme is proposed for conformational dynamics of biomolecules based on molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and experimental measurements. In this scheme, an initial Markov State Model (MSM) is constructed from MD simulation trajectories, and then, the MSM parameters are refined using experimental measurements through machine learning techniques. The second step can reduce the bias of MD simulation results due to inaccurate force-field parameters. Either time-series trajectories or ensemble-averaged data are available as a training data set in the scheme. Using a coarse-grained model of a dye-labeled polyproline-20, we compare the performance of machine learning estimations from the two types of training data sets. Machine learning from time-series data could provide the equilibrium populations of conformational states as well as their transition probabilities. It estimates hidden conformational states in more robust ways compared to that from ensemble-averaged data although there are limitations in estimating the transition probabilities between minor states. We discuss how to use the machine learning scheme for various experimental measurements including single-molecule time-series trajectories.

  13. Rf system modeling for the high average power FEL at CEBAF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merminga, L.; Fugitt, J.; Neil, G.; Simrock, S.

    1995-01-01

    High beam loading and energy recovery compounded by use of superconducting cavities, which requires tight control of microphonic noise, place stringent constraints on the linac rf system design of the proposed high average power FEL at CEBAF. Longitudinal dynamics imposes off-crest operation, which in turn implies a large tuning angle to minimize power requirements. Amplitude and phase stability requirements are consistent with demonstrated performance at CEBAF. A numerical model of the CEBAF rf control system is presented and the response of the system is examined under large parameter variations, microphonic noise, and beam current fluctuations. Studies of the transient behavior lead to a plausible startup and recovery scenario

  14. Ensemble averaging and stacking of ARIMA and GSTAR model for rainfall forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anggraeni, D.; Kurnia, I. F.; Hadi, A. F.

    2018-04-01

    Unpredictable rainfall changes can affect human activities, such as in agriculture, aviation, shipping which depend on weather forecasts. Therefore, we need forecasting tools with high accuracy in predicting the rainfall in the future. This research focus on local forcasting of the rainfall at Jember in 2005 until 2016, from 77 rainfall stations. The rainfall here was not only related to the occurrence of the previous of its stations, but also related to others, it’s called the spatial effect. The aim of this research is to apply the GSTAR model, to determine whether there are some correlations of spatial effect between one to another stations. The GSTAR model is an expansion of the space-time model that combines the time-related effects, the locations (stations) in a time series effects, and also the location it self. The GSTAR model will also be compared to the ARIMA model that completely ignores the independent variables. The forcested value of the ARIMA and of the GSTAR models then being combined using the ensemble forecasting technique. The averaging and stacking method of ensemble forecasting method here provide us the best model with higher acuracy model that has the smaller RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) value. Finally, with the best model we can offer a better local rainfall forecasting in Jember for the future.

  15. Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield

    2016-01-13

    As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.

  16. A systematic comparison of two-equation Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence models applied to shock-cloud interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Matthew D.; Heitsch, Fabian; Eklund, Karl; Williams, Virginia A.

    2017-07-01

    Turbulence models attempt to account for unresolved dynamics and diffusion in hydrodynamical simulations. We develop a common framework for two-equation Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes turbulence models, and we implement six models in the athena code. We verify each implementation with the standard subsonic mixing layer, although the level of agreement depends on the definition of the mixing layer width. We then test the validity of each model into the supersonic regime, showing that compressibility corrections can improve agreement with experiment. For models with buoyancy effects, we also verify our implementation via the growth of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability in a stratified medium. The models are then applied to the ubiquitous astrophysical shock-cloud interaction in three dimensions. We focus on the mixing of shock and cloud material, comparing results from turbulence models to high-resolution simulations (up to 200 cells per cloud radius) and ensemble-averaged simulations. We find that the turbulence models lead to increased spreading and mixing of the cloud, although no two models predict the same result. Increased mixing is also observed in inviscid simulations at resolutions greater than 100 cells per radius, which suggests that the turbulent mixing begins to be resolved.

  17. A Comparison of Two Strategies for Building an Exposure Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiden, Marina; Mathiassen, Svend Erik; Garza, Jennifer; Liv, Per; Wahlström, Jens

    2016-01-01

    Cost-efficient assessments of job exposures in large populations may be obtained from models in which 'true' exposures assessed by expensive measurement methods are estimated from easily accessible and cheap predictors. Typically, the models are built on the basis of a validation study comprising 'true' exposure data as well as an extensive collection of candidate predictors from questionnaires or company data, which cannot all be included in the models due to restrictions in the degrees of freedom available for modeling. In these situations, predictors need to be selected using procedures that can identify the best possible subset of predictors among the candidates. The present study compares two strategies for selecting a set of predictor variables. One strategy relies on stepwise hypothesis testing of associations between predictors and exposure, while the other uses cluster analysis to reduce the number of predictors without relying on empirical information about the measured exposure. Both strategies were applied to the same dataset on biomechanical exposure and candidate predictors among computer users, and they were compared in terms of identified predictors of exposure as well as the resulting model fit using bootstrapped resamples of the original data. The identified predictors were, to a large part, different between the two strategies, and the initial model fit was better for the stepwise testing strategy than for the clustering approach. Internal validation of the models using bootstrap resampling with fixed predictors revealed an equally reduced model fit in resampled datasets for both strategies. However, when predictor selection was incorporated in the validation procedure for the stepwise testing strategy, the model fit was reduced to the extent that both strategies showed similar model fit. Thus, the two strategies would both be expected to perform poorly with respect to predicting biomechanical exposure in other samples of computer users. © The

  18. Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes Analysis of Zero Efflux Flow Control over a Hump Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.

    2006-01-01

    The unsteady flow over a hump model with zero efflux oscillatory flow control is modeled computationally using the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Three different turbulence models produce similar results, and do a reasonably good job predicting the general character of the unsteady surface pressure coefficients during the forced cycle. However, the turbulent shear stresses are underpredicted in magnitude inside the separation bubble, and the computed results predict too large a (mean) separation bubble compared with experiment. These missed predictions are consistent with earlier steady-state results using no-flow-control and steady suction, from a 2004 CFD validation workshop for synthetic jets.

  19. FDTD calculation of whole-body average SAR in adult and child models for frequencies from 30 MHz to 3 GHz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jianqing; Fujiwara, Osamu; Kodera, Sachiko; Watanabe, Soichi

    2006-01-01

    Due to the difficulty of the specific absorption rate (SAR) measurement in an actual human body for electromagnetic radio-frequency (RF) exposure, in various compliance assessment procedures the incident electric field or power density is being used as a reference level, which should never yield a larger whole-body average SAR than the basic safety limit. The relationship between the reference level and the whole-body average SAR, however, was established mainly based on numerical calculations for highly simplified human modelling dozens of years ago. Its validity is being questioned by the latest calculation results. In verifying the validity of the reference level with respect to the basic SAR limit for RF exposure, it is essential to have a high accuracy of human modelling and numerical code. In this study, we made a detailed error analysis in the whole-body average SAR calculation for the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method in conjunction with the perfectly matched layer (PML) absorbing boundaries. We derived a basic rule for the PML employment based on a dielectric sphere and the Mie theory solution. We then attempted to clarify to what extent the whole-body average SAR may reach using an anatomically based Japanese adult model and a scaled child model. The results show that the whole-body average SAR under the ICNIRP reference level exceeds the basic safety limit nearly 30% for the child model both in the resonance frequency and 2 GHz band

  20. FDTD calculation of whole-body average SAR in adult and child models for frequencies from 30 MHz to 3 GHz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jianqing [Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Gokiso-cho, Showa-ku, Nagoya 466-8555 (Japan); Fujiwara, Osamu [Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Gokiso-cho, Showa-ku, Nagoya 466-8555 (Japan); Kodera, Sachiko [Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya Institute of Technology, Gokiso-cho, Showa-ku, Nagoya 466-8555 (Japan); Watanabe, Soichi [National Institute of Information and Communications Technology, Nukui-kitamachi, Koganei, Tokyo 184-8795 (Japan)

    2006-09-07

    Due to the difficulty of the specific absorption rate (SAR) measurement in an actual human body for electromagnetic radio-frequency (RF) exposure, in various compliance assessment procedures the incident electric field or power density is being used as a reference level, which should never yield a larger whole-body average SAR than the basic safety limit. The relationship between the reference level and the whole-body average SAR, however, was established mainly based on numerical calculations for highly simplified human modelling dozens of years ago. Its validity is being questioned by the latest calculation results. In verifying the validity of the reference level with respect to the basic SAR limit for RF exposure, it is essential to have a high accuracy of human modelling and numerical code. In this study, we made a detailed error analysis in the whole-body average SAR calculation for the finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) method in conjunction with the perfectly matched layer (PML) absorbing boundaries. We derived a basic rule for the PML employment based on a dielectric sphere and the Mie theory solution. We then attempted to clarify to what extent the whole-body average SAR may reach using an anatomically based Japanese adult model and a scaled child model. The results show that the whole-body average SAR under the ICNIRP reference level exceeds the basic safety limit nearly 30% for the child model both in the resonance frequency and 2 GHz band.

  1. Evaluations of average level spacings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liou, H.I.

    1980-01-01

    The average level spacing for highly excited nuclei is a key parameter in cross section formulas based on statistical nuclear models, and also plays an important role in determining many physics quantities. Various methods to evaluate average level spacings are reviewed. Because of the finite experimental resolution, to detect a complete sequence of levels without mixing other parities is extremely difficult, if not totally impossible. Most methods derive the average level spacings by applying a fit, with different degrees of generality, to the truncated Porter-Thomas distribution for reduced neutron widths. A method that tests both distributions of level widths and positions is discussed extensivey with an example of 168 Er data. 19 figures, 2 tables

  2. Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Shu-Jun

    2012-01-01

    Stochastic Averaging and Stochastic Extremum Seeking develops methods of mathematical analysis inspired by the interest in reverse engineering  and analysis of bacterial  convergence by chemotaxis and to apply similar stochastic optimization techniques in other environments. The first half of the text presents significant advances in stochastic averaging theory, necessitated by the fact that existing theorems are restricted to systems with linear growth, globally exponentially stable average models, vanishing stochastic perturbations, and prevent analysis over infinite time horizon. The second half of the text introduces stochastic extremum seeking algorithms for model-free optimization of systems in real time using stochastic perturbations for estimation of their gradients. Both gradient- and Newton-based algorithms are presented, offering the user the choice between the simplicity of implementation (gradient) and the ability to achieve a known, arbitrary convergence rate (Newton). The design of algorithms...

  3. Comparative study of dense plasma state equations obtained from different models of average-atom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fromy, Patrice

    1991-01-01

    This research thesis addresses the influence of temperature and density effects on magnitudes such as pressure, energy, ionisation, and on energy levels of a body described according to the approximation of an electrically neutral isolated atomic sphere. Starting from the general formalism of the functional density, with some approximations, the author deduces the Thomas-Fermi, Thomas-Fermi-Dirac, and Thomas-Fermi-Dirac-Weizsaecker models, and an average-atom approximated quantum model. For each of these models, the author presents an explicit method of resolution, as well as the determination of different magnitudes taken into account in this study. For the different studied magnitudes, the author highlights effects due to the influence of temperature and of density, as well as variations due to the different models [fr

  4. Spatial models for probabilistic prediction of wind power with application to annual-average and high temporal resolution data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzi, Amanda; Pinson, Pierre; Clemmensen, Line Katrine Harder

    2017-01-01

    average wind power generation, and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial correlation is captured by a latent Gaussian field. We explore how such models can be handled...... with stochastic partial differential approximations of Matérn Gaussian fields together with Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations. We demonstrate the proposed methods on wind farm data from Western Denmark, and compare the results to those obtained with standard geostatistical methods. The results show...

  5. A spatially-averaged mathematical model of kidney branching morphogenesis

    KAUST Repository

    Zubkov, V.S.

    2015-08-01

    © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Kidney development is initiated by the outgrowth of an epithelial ureteric bud into a population of mesenchymal cells. Reciprocal morphogenetic responses between these two populations generate a highly branched epithelial ureteric tree with the mesenchyme differentiating into nephrons, the functional units of the kidney. While we understand some of the mechanisms involved, current knowledge fails to explain the variability of organ sizes and nephron endowment in mice and humans. Here we present a spatially-averaged mathematical model of kidney morphogenesis in which the growth of the two key populations is described by a system of time-dependant ordinary differential equations. We assume that branching is symmetric and is invoked when the number of epithelial cells per tip reaches a threshold value. This process continues until the number of mesenchymal cells falls below a critical value that triggers cessation of branching. The mathematical model and its predictions are validated against experimentally quantified C57Bl6 mouse embryonic kidneys. Numerical simulations are performed to determine how the final number of branches changes as key system parameters are varied (such as the growth rate of tip cells, mesenchyme cells, or component cell population exit rate). Our results predict that the developing kidney responds differently to loss of cap and tip cells. They also indicate that the final number of kidney branches is less sensitive to changes in the growth rate of the ureteric tip cells than to changes in the growth rate of the mesenchymal cells. By inference, increasing the growth rate of mesenchymal cells should maximise branch number. Our model also provides a framework for predicting the branching outcome when ureteric tip or mesenchyme cells change behaviour in response to different genetic or environmental developmental stresses.

  6. A spatially-averaged mathematical model of kidney branching morphogenesis

    KAUST Repository

    Zubkov, V.S.; Combes, A.N.; Short, K.M.; Lefevre, J.; Hamilton, N.A.; Smyth, I.M.; Little, M.H.; Byrne, H.M.

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Kidney development is initiated by the outgrowth of an epithelial ureteric bud into a population of mesenchymal cells. Reciprocal morphogenetic responses between these two populations generate a highly branched epithelial ureteric tree with the mesenchyme differentiating into nephrons, the functional units of the kidney. While we understand some of the mechanisms involved, current knowledge fails to explain the variability of organ sizes and nephron endowment in mice and humans. Here we present a spatially-averaged mathematical model of kidney morphogenesis in which the growth of the two key populations is described by a system of time-dependant ordinary differential equations. We assume that branching is symmetric and is invoked when the number of epithelial cells per tip reaches a threshold value. This process continues until the number of mesenchymal cells falls below a critical value that triggers cessation of branching. The mathematical model and its predictions are validated against experimentally quantified C57Bl6 mouse embryonic kidneys. Numerical simulations are performed to determine how the final number of branches changes as key system parameters are varied (such as the growth rate of tip cells, mesenchyme cells, or component cell population exit rate). Our results predict that the developing kidney responds differently to loss of cap and tip cells. They also indicate that the final number of kidney branches is less sensitive to changes in the growth rate of the ureteric tip cells than to changes in the growth rate of the mesenchymal cells. By inference, increasing the growth rate of mesenchymal cells should maximise branch number. Our model also provides a framework for predicting the branching outcome when ureteric tip or mesenchyme cells change behaviour in response to different genetic or environmental developmental stresses.

  7. ANALISIS CURAH HUJAN DAN DEBIT MODEL SWAT DENGAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE DI DAS CILIWUNG HULU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defri Satiya Zuma

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Watershed can be regarded as a hydrological system that has a function in transforming rainwater as an input into outputs such as flow and sediment. The transformation of inputs into outputs has specific forms and properties. The transformation involves many processes, including processes occurred on the surface of the land, river basins, in soil and aquifer. This study aimed to apply the SWAT model  in  Ciliwung Hulu Watershed, asses the effect of average rainfall  on 3 days, 5 days, 7 days and 10 days of the hydrological characteristics in Ciliwung Hulu Watershed. The correlation coefficient (r between rainfall and discharge was positive, it indicated that there was an unidirectional relationship between rainfall and discharge in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the watershed. The upper limit ratio of discharge had a downward trend from upstream to downstream, while the lower limit ratio of  discharge had an upward trend from upstream to downstream. It showed that the discharge peak in Ciliwung  Hulu Watershed from upstream to downstream had a downward trend while the baseflow from upstream to downstream had an upward trend. It showed that the upstream of Ciliwung Hulu Watershed had the highest ratio of discharge peak  and baseflow so it needs the soil and water conservations and technical civil measures. The discussion concluded that the SWAT model could be well applied in Ciliwung Hulu Watershed, the most affecting average rainfall on the hydrological characteristics was the average rainfall of 10 days. On average  rainfall of 10 days, all components had contributed maximally for river discharge.

  8. Analyzing Repeated Measures Marginal Models on Sample Surveys with Resampling Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Knoke

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Packaged statistical software for analyzing categorical, repeated measures marginal models on sample survey data with binary covariates does not appear to be available. Consequently, this report describes a customized SAS program which accomplishes such an analysis on survey data with jackknifed replicate weights for which the primary sampling unit information has been suppressed for respondent confidentiality. First, the program employs the Macro Language and the Output Delivery System (ODS to estimate the means and covariances of indicator variables for the response variables, taking the design into account. Then, it uses PROC CATMOD and ODS, ignoring the survey design, to obtain the design matrix and hypothesis test specifications. Finally, it enters these results into another run of CATMOD, which performs automated direct input of the survey design specifications and accomplishes the appropriate analysis. This customized SAS program can be employed, with minor editing, to analyze general categorical, repeated measures marginal models on sample surveys with replicate weights. Finally, the results of our analysis accounting for the survey design are compared to the results of two alternate analyses of the same data. This comparison confirms that such alternate analyses, which do not properly account for the design, do not produce useful results.

  9. Bayesian Averaging over Many Dynamic Model Structures with Evidence on the Great Ratios and Liquidity Trap Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractA Bayesian model averaging procedure is presented that makes use of a finite mixture of many model structures within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. It is applied to two empirical issues. First, stability of the Great Ratios in U.S. macro-economic time series is

  10. Exploiting scale dependence in cosmological averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mattsson, Teppo; Ronkainen, Maria

    2008-01-01

    We study the role of scale dependence in the Buchert averaging method, using the flat Lemaitre–Tolman–Bondi model as a testing ground. Within this model, a single averaging scale gives predictions that are too coarse, but by replacing it with the distance of the objects R(z) for each redshift z, we find an O(1%) precision at z<2 in the averaged luminosity and angular diameter distances compared to their exact expressions. At low redshifts, we show the improvement for generic inhomogeneity profiles, and our numerical computations further verify it up to redshifts z∼2. At higher redshifts, the method breaks down due to its inability to capture the time evolution of the inhomogeneities. We also demonstrate that the running smoothing scale R(z) can mimic acceleration, suggesting that it could be at least as important as the backreaction in explaining dark energy as an inhomogeneity induced illusion

  11. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Wohling, Thomas [NON LANL

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  12. Comparative Analysis of Market Volatility in Indian Banking and IT Sectors by using Average Decline Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirti AREKAR

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The stock market volatility is depends on three major features, complete volatility, volatility fluctuations, and volatility attention and they are calculate by the statistical techniques. Comparative analysis of market volatility for two major index i.e. banking & IT sector in Bombay stock exchange (BSE by using average decline model. The average degeneration process in volatility has being used after very high and low stock returns. The results of this study explain significant decline in volatility fluctuations, attention, and level between epochs of pre and post particularly high stock returns.

  13. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. MacIntosh

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP and global temperature-change potential (GTP there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia. We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3

  14. Regional averaging and scaling in relativistic cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchert, Thomas; Carfora, Mauro

    2002-01-01

    Averaged inhomogeneous cosmologies lie at the forefront of interest, since cosmological parameters such as the rate of expansion or the mass density are to be considered as volume-averaged quantities and only these can be compared with observations. For this reason the relevant parameters are intrinsically scale-dependent and one wishes to control this dependence without restricting the cosmological model by unphysical assumptions. In the latter respect we contrast our way to approach the averaging problem in relativistic cosmology with shortcomings of averaged Newtonian models. Explicitly, we investigate the scale-dependence of Eulerian volume averages of scalar functions on Riemannian three-manifolds. We propose a complementary view of a Lagrangian smoothing of (tensorial) variables as opposed to their Eulerian averaging on spatial domains. This programme is realized with the help of a global Ricci deformation flow for the metric. We explain rigorously the origin of the Ricci flow which, on heuristic grounds, has already been suggested as a possible candidate for smoothing the initial dataset for cosmological spacetimes. The smoothing of geometry implies a renormalization of averaged spatial variables. We discuss the results in terms of effective cosmological parameters that would be assigned to the smoothed cosmological spacetime. In particular, we find that on the smoothed spatial domain B-bar evaluated cosmological parameters obey Ω-bar B-bar m + Ω-bar B-bar R + Ω-bar B-bar A + Ω-bar B-bar Q 1, where Ω-bar B-bar m , Ω-bar B-bar R and Ω-bar B-bar A correspond to the standard Friedmannian parameters, while Ω-bar B-bar Q is a remnant of cosmic variance of expansion and shear fluctuations on the averaging domain. All these parameters are 'dressed' after smoothing out the geometrical fluctuations, and we give the relations of the 'dressed' to the 'bare' parameters. While the former provide the framework of interpreting observations with a 'Friedmannian bias

  15. Bounded Memory, Inertia, Sampling and Weighting Model for Market Entry Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Shan Lee

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the “Bounded Memory, Inertia, Sampling and Weighting” (BI-SAW model, which won the http://sites.google.com/site/gpredcomp/Market Entry Prediction Competition in 2010. The BI-SAW model refines the I-SAW Model (Erev et al. [1] by adding the assumption of limited memory span. In particular, we assume when players draw a small sample to weight against the average payoff of all past experience, they can only recall 6 trials of past experience. On the other hand, we keep all other key features of the I-SAW model: (1 Reliance on a small sample of past experiences, (2 Strong inertia and recency effects, and (3 Surprise triggers change. We estimate this model using the first set of experimental results run by the competition organizers, and use it to predict results of a second set of similar experiments later ran by the organizers. We find significant improvement in out-of-sample predictability (against the I-SAW model in terms of smaller mean normalized MSD, and such result is robust to resampling the predicted game set and reversing the role of the sets of experimental results. Our model’s performance is the best among all the participants.

  16. Robust Determinants of Growth in Asian Developing Economies: A Bayesian Panel Data Model Averaging Approach

    OpenAIRE

    LEON-GONZALEZ, Roberto; VINAYAGATHASAN, Thanabalasingam

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of growth in the Asian developing economies. We use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in the context of a dynamic panel data growth regression to overcome the uncertainty over the choice of control variables. In addition, we use a Bayesian algorithm to analyze a large number of competing models. Among the explanatory variables, we include a non-linear function of inflation that allows for threshold effects. We use an unbalanced panel data set of 27 Asian ...

  17. Dynamic average modeling of a bidirectional solid state transformer for feasibility studies and real-time implementation

    OpenAIRE

    Martínez Velasco, Juan Antonio; Alepuz Menéndez, Salvador; Gonzalez Molina, Francisco; Martín Arnedo, Jacinto

    2014-01-01

    Detailed switching models of power electronics devices often lead to long computing times, limiting the size of the system to be simulated. This drawback is especially important when the goal is to implement the model in a real-time simulation platform. An alternative is to use dynamic average models (DAM) for analyzing the dynamic behavior of power electronic devices. This paper presents the development of a DAM for a bidirectional solid-state transformer and its implementation in a real-tim...

  18. Modelling the average velocity of propagation of the flame front in a gasoline engine with hydrogen additives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smolenskaya, N. M.; Smolenskii, V. V.

    2018-01-01

    The paper presents models for calculating the average velocity of propagation of the flame front, obtained from the results of experimental studies. Experimental studies were carried out on a single-cylinder gasoline engine UIT-85 with hydrogen additives up to 6% of the mass of fuel. The article shows the influence of hydrogen addition on the average velocity propagation of the flame front in the main combustion phase. The dependences of the turbulent propagation velocity of the flame front in the second combustion phase on the composition of the mixture and operating modes. The article shows the influence of the normal combustion rate on the average flame propagation velocity in the third combustion phase.

  19. Statistical aspects of autoregressive-moving average models in the assessment of radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, J.E.; Henschel, D.B.

    1989-01-01

    Radon values, as reflected by hourly scintillation counts, seem dominated by major, pseudo-periodic, random fluctuations. This methodological paper reports a moderate degree of success in modeling these data using relatively simple autoregressive-moving average models to assess the effectiveness of radon mitigation techniques in existing housing. While accounting for the natural correlation of successive observations, familiar summary statistics such as steady state estimates, standard errors, confidence limits, and tests of hypothesis are produced. The Box-Jenkins approach is used throughout. In particular, intervention analysis provides an objective means of assessing the effectiveness of an active mitigation measure, such as a fan off/on cycle. Occasionally, failure to declare a significant intervention has suggested a means of remedial action in the data collection procedure

  20. Elucidating fluctuating diffusivity in center-of-mass motion of polymer models with time-averaged mean-square-displacement tensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyaguchi, Tomoshige

    2017-10-01

    There have been increasing reports that the diffusion coefficient of macromolecules depends on time and fluctuates randomly. Here a method is developed to elucidate this fluctuating diffusivity from trajectory data. Time-averaged mean-square displacement (MSD), a common tool in single-particle-tracking (SPT) experiments, is generalized to a second-order tensor with which both magnitude and orientation fluctuations of the diffusivity can be clearly detected. This method is used to analyze the center-of-mass motion of four fundamental polymer models: the Rouse model, the Zimm model, a reptation model, and a rigid rodlike polymer. It is found that these models exhibit distinctly different types of magnitude and orientation fluctuations of diffusivity. This is an advantage of the present method over previous ones, such as the ergodicity-breaking parameter and a non-Gaussian parameter, because with either of these parameters it is difficult to distinguish the dynamics of the four polymer models. Also, the present method of a time-averaged MSD tensor could be used to analyze trajectory data obtained in SPT experiments.

  1. Averaging in spherically symmetric cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coley, A. A.; Pelavas, N.

    2007-01-01

    The averaging problem in cosmology is of fundamental importance. When applied to study cosmological evolution, the theory of macroscopic gravity (MG) can be regarded as a long-distance modification of general relativity. In the MG approach to the averaging problem in cosmology, the Einstein field equations on cosmological scales are modified by appropriate gravitational correlation terms. We study the averaging problem within the class of spherically symmetric cosmological models. That is, we shall take the microscopic equations and effect the averaging procedure to determine the precise form of the correlation tensor in this case. In particular, by working in volume-preserving coordinates, we calculate the form of the correlation tensor under some reasonable assumptions on the form for the inhomogeneous gravitational field and matter distribution. We find that the correlation tensor in a Friedmann-Lemaitre-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) background must be of the form of a spatial curvature. Inhomogeneities and spatial averaging, through this spatial curvature correction term, can have a very significant dynamical effect on the dynamics of the Universe and cosmological observations; in particular, we discuss whether spatial averaging might lead to a more conservative explanation of the observed acceleration of the Universe (without the introduction of exotic dark matter fields). We also find that the correlation tensor for a non-FLRW background can be interpreted as the sum of a spatial curvature and an anisotropic fluid. This may lead to interesting effects of averaging on astrophysical scales. We also discuss the results of averaging an inhomogeneous Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi solution as well as calculations of linear perturbations (that is, the backreaction) in an FLRW background, which support the main conclusions of the analysis

  2. Improving consensus structure by eliminating averaging artifacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KC Dukka B

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Common structural biology methods (i.e., NMR and molecular dynamics often produce ensembles of molecular structures. Consequently, averaging of 3D coordinates of molecular structures (proteins and RNA is a frequent approach to obtain a consensus structure that is representative of the ensemble. However, when the structures are averaged, artifacts can result in unrealistic local geometries, including unphysical bond lengths and angles. Results Herein, we describe a method to derive representative structures while limiting the number of artifacts. Our approach is based on a Monte Carlo simulation technique that drives a starting structure (an extended or a 'close-by' structure towards the 'averaged structure' using a harmonic pseudo energy function. To assess the performance of the algorithm, we applied our approach to Cα models of 1364 proteins generated by the TASSER structure prediction algorithm. The average RMSD of the refined model from the native structure for the set becomes worse by a mere 0.08 Å compared to the average RMSD of the averaged structures from the native structure (3.28 Å for refined structures and 3.36 A for the averaged structures. However, the percentage of atoms involved in clashes is greatly reduced (from 63% to 1%; in fact, the majority of the refined proteins had zero clashes. Moreover, a small number (38 of refined structures resulted in lower RMSD to the native protein versus the averaged structure. Finally, compared to PULCHRA 1, our approach produces representative structure of similar RMSD quality, but with much fewer clashes. Conclusion The benchmarking results demonstrate that our approach for removing averaging artifacts can be very beneficial for the structural biology community. Furthermore, the same approach can be applied to almost any problem where averaging of 3D coordinates is performed. Namely, structure averaging is also commonly performed in RNA secondary prediction 2, which

  3. Design and implementation of new design of numerical experiments for non linear models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gazut, St.

    2007-03-01

    This thesis addresses the problem of the construction of surrogate models in numerical simulation. Whenever numerical experiments are costly, the simulation model is complex and difficult to use. It is important then to select the numerical experiments as efficiently as possible in order to minimize their number. In statistics, the selection of experiments is known as optimal experimental design. In the context of numerical simulation where no measurement uncertainty is present, we describe an alternative approach based on statistical learning theory and re-sampling techniques. The surrogate models are constructed using neural networks and the generalization error is estimated by leave-one-out, cross-validation and bootstrap. It is shown that the bootstrap can control the over-fitting and extend the concept of leverage for non linear in their parameters surrogate models. The thesis describes an iterative method called LDR for Learner Disagreement from experiment Re-sampling, based on active learning using several surrogate models constructed on bootstrap samples. The method consists in adding new experiments where the predictors constructed from bootstrap samples disagree most. We compare the LDR method with other methods of experimental design such as D-optimal selection. (author)

  4. Average Costs versus Net Present Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.A. van der Laan (Erwin); R.H. Teunter (Ruud)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWhile the net present value (NPV) approach is widely accepted as the right framework for studying production and inventory control systems, average cost (AC) models are more widely used. For the well known EOQ model it can be verified that (under certain conditions) the AC approach gives

  5. Dual-component model of respiratory motion based on the periodic autoregressive moving average (periodic ARMA) method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCall, K C; Jeraj, R

    2007-01-01

    A new approach to the problem of modelling and predicting respiration motion has been implemented. This is a dual-component model, which describes the respiration motion as a non-periodic time series superimposed onto a periodic waveform. A periodic autoregressive moving average algorithm has been used to define a mathematical model of the periodic and non-periodic components of the respiration motion. The periodic components of the motion were found by projecting multiple inhale-exhale cycles onto a common subspace. The component of the respiration signal that is left after removing this periodicity is a partially autocorrelated time series and was modelled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. The accuracy of the periodic ARMA model with respect to fluctuation in amplitude and variation in length of cycles has been assessed. A respiration phantom was developed to simulate the inter-cycle variations seen in free-breathing and coached respiration patterns. At ±14% variability in cycle length and maximum amplitude of motion, the prediction errors were 4.8% of the total motion extent for a 0.5 s ahead prediction, and 9.4% at 1.0 s lag. The prediction errors increased to 11.6% at 0.5 s and 21.6% at 1.0 s when the respiration pattern had ±34% variations in both these parameters. Our results have shown that the accuracy of the periodic ARMA model is more strongly dependent on the variations in cycle length than the amplitude of the respiration cycles

  6. Performance of Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Models in Predicting Separated Flows: Study of the Hump Flow Model Problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappelli, Daniele; Mansour, Nagi N.

    2012-01-01

    Separation can be seen in most aerodynamic flows, but accurate prediction of separated flows is still a challenging problem for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tools. The behavior of several Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models in predicting the separated ow over a wall-mounted hump is studied. The strengths and weaknesses of the most popular RANS models (Spalart-Allmaras, k-epsilon, k-omega, k-omega-SST) are evaluated using the open source software OpenFOAM. The hump ow modeled in this work has been documented in the 2004 CFD Validation Workshop on Synthetic Jets and Turbulent Separation Control. Only the baseline case is treated; the slot flow control cases are not considered in this paper. Particular attention is given to predicting the size of the recirculation bubble, the position of the reattachment point, and the velocity profiles downstream of the hump.

  7. Robust nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using stochastic recurrent artificial neural networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chon, K H; Hoyer, D; Armoundas, A A

    1999-01-01

    In this study, we introduce a new approach for estimating linear and nonlinear stochastic autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model parameters, given a corrupt signal, using artificial recurrent neural networks. This new approach is a two-step approach in which the parameters of the deterministic...... part of the stochastic ARMA model are first estimated via a three-layer artificial neural network (deterministic estimation step) and then reestimated using the prediction error as one of the inputs to the artificial neural networks in an iterative algorithm (stochastic estimation step). The prediction...... error is obtained by subtracting the corrupt signal of the estimated ARMA model obtained via the deterministic estimation step from the system output response. We present computer simulation examples to show the efficacy of the proposed stochastic recurrent neural network approach in obtaining accurate...

  8. Large deviations of a long-time average in the Ehrenfest urn model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerson, Baruch; Zilber, Pini

    2018-05-01

    Since its inception in 1907, the Ehrenfest urn model (EUM) has served as a test bed of key concepts of statistical mechanics. Here we employ this model to study large deviations of a time-additive quantity. We consider two continuous-time versions of the EUM with K urns and N balls: with and without interactions between the balls in the same urn. We evaluate the probability distribution that the average number of balls in one urn over time T, , takes any specified value aN, where . For long observation time, , a Donsker–Varadhan large deviation principle holds: , where … denote additional parameters of the model. We calculate the rate function exactly by two different methods due to Donsker and Varadhan and compare the exact results with those obtained with a variant of WKB approximation (after Wentzel, Kramers and Brillouin). In the absence of interactions the WKB prediction for is exact for any N. In the presence of interactions the WKB method gives asymptotically exact results for . The WKB method also uncovers the (very simple) time history of the system which dominates the contribution of different time histories to .

  9. Average of delta: a new quality control tool for clinical laboratories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Graham R D

    2016-01-01

    Average of normals is a tool used to control assay performance using the average of a series of results from patients' samples. Delta checking is a process of identifying errors in individual patient results by reviewing the difference from previous results of the same patient. This paper introduces a novel alternate approach, average of delta, which combines these concepts to use the average of a number of sequential delta values to identify changes in assay performance. Models for average of delta and average of normals were developed in a spreadsheet application. The model assessed the expected scatter of average of delta and average of normals functions and the effect of assay bias for different values of analytical imprecision and within- and between-subject biological variation and the number of samples included in the calculations. The final assessment was the number of patients' samples required to identify an added bias with 90% certainty. The model demonstrated that with larger numbers of delta values, the average of delta function was tighter (lower coefficient of variation). The optimal number of samples for bias detection with average of delta was likely to be between 5 and 20 for most settings and that average of delta outperformed average of normals when the within-subject biological variation was small relative to the between-subject variation. Average of delta provides a possible additional assay quality control tool which theoretical modelling predicts may be more valuable than average of normals for analytes where the group biological variation is wide compared with within-subject variation and where there is a high rate of repeat testing in the laboratory patient population. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Wayside Bearing Fault Diagnosis Based on a Data-Driven Doppler Effect Eliminator and Transient Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang; Shen, Changqing; He, Qingbo; Zhang, Ao; Liu, Yongbin; Kong, Fanrang

    2014-01-01

    A fault diagnosis strategy based on the wayside acoustic monitoring technique is investigated for locomotive bearing fault diagnosis. Inspired by the transient modeling analysis method based on correlation filtering analysis, a so-called Parametric-Mother-Doppler-Wavelet (PMDW) is constructed with six parameters, including a center characteristic frequency and five kinematic model parameters. A Doppler effect eliminator containing a PMDW generator, a correlation filtering analysis module, and a signal resampler is invented to eliminate the Doppler effect embedded in the acoustic signal of the recorded bearing. Through the Doppler effect eliminator, the five kinematic model parameters can be identified based on the signal itself. Then, the signal resampler is applied to eliminate the Doppler effect using the identified parameters. With the ability to detect early bearing faults, the transient model analysis method is employed to detect localized bearing faults after the embedded Doppler effect is eliminated. The effectiveness of the proposed fault diagnosis strategy is verified via simulation studies and applications to diagnose locomotive roller bearing defects. PMID:24803197

  11. Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2017-03-01

    Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  12. A methodological critique on using temperature-conditioned resampling for climate projections as in the paper of Gerstengarbe et al. (2013) winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events in Theoretical and Applied Climatology (TAC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsung, Frank; Wechsung, Maximilian

    2016-11-01

    The STatistical Analogue Resampling Scheme (STARS) statistical approach was recently used to project changes of climate variables in Germany corresponding to a supposed degree of warming. We show by theoretical and empirical analysis that STARS simply transforms interannual gradients between warmer and cooler seasons into climate trends. According to STARS projections, summers in Germany will inevitably become dryer and winters wetter under global warming. Due to the dominance of negative interannual correlations between precipitation and temperature during the year, STARS has a tendency to generate a net annual decrease in precipitation under mean German conditions. Furthermore, according to STARS, the annual level of global radiation would increase in Germany. STARS can be still used, e.g., for generating scenarios in vulnerability and uncertainty studies. However, it is not suitable as a climate downscaling tool to access risks following from changing climate for a finer than general circulation model (GCM) spatial scale.

  13. The value of model averaging and dynamical climate model predictions for improving statistical seasonal streamflow forecasts over Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Prafulla; Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, David E.

    2013-10-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts are valuable for planning and allocation of water resources. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology employs a statistical method to forecast seasonal streamflows. The method uses predictors that are related to catchment wetness at the start of a forecast period and to climate during the forecast period. For the latter, a predictor is selected among a number of lagged climate indices as candidates to give the "best" model in terms of model performance in cross validation. This study investigates two strategies for further improvement in seasonal streamflow forecasts. The first is to combine, through Bayesian model averaging, multiple candidate models with different lagged climate indices as predictors, to take advantage of different predictive strengths of the multiple models. The second strategy is to introduce additional candidate models, using rainfall and sea surface temperature predictions from a global climate model as predictors. This is to take advantage of the direct simulations of various dynamic processes. The results show that combining forecasts from multiple statistical models generally yields more skillful forecasts than using only the best model and appears to moderate the worst forecast errors. The use of rainfall predictions from the dynamical climate model marginally improves the streamflow forecasts when viewed over all the study catchments and seasons, but the use of sea surface temperature predictions provide little additional benefit.

  14. Analysis of baseline, average, and longitudinally measured blood pressure data using linear mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Ahmed; Beyene, Joseph

    2014-01-01

    This article compares baseline, average, and longitudinal data analysis methods for identifying genetic variants in genome-wide association study using the Genetic Analysis Workshop 18 data. We apply methods that include (a) linear mixed models with baseline measures, (b) random intercept linear mixed models with mean measures outcome, and (c) random intercept linear mixed models with longitudinal measurements. In the linear mixed models, covariates are included as fixed effects, whereas relatedness among individuals is incorporated as the variance-covariance structure of the random effect for the individuals. The overall strategy of applying linear mixed models decorrelate the data is based on Aulchenko et al.'s GRAMMAR. By analyzing systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which are used separately as outcomes, we compare the 3 methods in identifying a known genetic variant that is associated with blood pressure from chromosome 3 and simulated phenotype data. We also analyze the real phenotype data to illustrate the methods. We conclude that the linear mixed model with longitudinal measurements of diastolic blood pressure is the most accurate at identifying the known single-nucleotide polymorphism among the methods, but linear mixed models with baseline measures perform best with systolic blood pressure as the outcome.

  15. Average monthly and annual climate maps for Bolivia

    KAUST Repository

    Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.

    2015-02-24

    This study presents monthly and annual climate maps for relevant hydroclimatic variables in Bolivia. We used the most complete network of precipitation and temperature stations available in Bolivia, which passed a careful quality control and temporal homogenization procedure. Monthly average maps at the spatial resolution of 1 km were modeled by means of a regression-based approach using topographic and geographic variables as predictors. The monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and potential exoatmospheric solar radiation under clear sky conditions are used to estimate the monthly average atmospheric evaporative demand by means of the Hargreaves model. Finally, the average water balance is estimated on a monthly and annual scale for each 1 km cell by means of the difference between precipitation and atmospheric evaporative demand. The digital layers used to create the maps are available in the digital repository of the Spanish National Research Council.

  16. The B-dot Earth Average Magnetic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capo-Lugo, Pedro A.; Rakoczy, John; Sanders, Devon

    2013-01-01

    The average Earth's magnetic field is solved with complex mathematical models based on mean square integral. Depending on the selection of the Earth magnetic model, the average Earth's magnetic field can have different solutions. This paper presents a simple technique that takes advantage of the damping effects of the b-dot controller and is not dependent of the Earth magnetic model; but it is dependent on the magnetic torquers of the satellite which is not taken into consideration in the known mathematical models. Also the solution of this new technique can be implemented so easily that the flight software can be updated during flight, and the control system can have current gains for the magnetic torquers. Finally, this technique is verified and validated using flight data from a satellite that it has been in orbit for three years.

  17. A depth-averaged debris-flow model that includes the effects of evolving dilatancy. I. physical basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iverson, Richard M.; George, David L.

    2014-01-01

    To simulate debris-flow behaviour from initiation to deposition, we derive a depth-averaged, two-phase model that combines concepts of critical-state soil mechanics, grain-flow mechanics and fluid mechanics. The model's balance equations describe coupled evolution of the solid volume fraction, m, basal pore-fluid pressure, flow thickness and two components of flow velocity. Basal friction is evaluated using a generalized Coulomb rule, and fluid motion is evaluated in a frame of reference that translates with the velocity of the granular phase, vs. Source terms in each of the depth-averaged balance equations account for the influence of the granular dilation rate, defined as the depth integral of ∇⋅vs. Calculation of the dilation rate involves the effects of an elastic compressibility and an inelastic dilatancy angle proportional to m−meq, where meq is the value of m in equilibrium with the ambient stress state and flow rate. Normalization of the model equations shows that predicted debris-flow behaviour depends principally on the initial value of m−meq and on the ratio of two fundamental timescales. One of these timescales governs downslope debris-flow motion, and the other governs pore-pressure relaxation that modifies Coulomb friction and regulates evolution of m. A companion paper presents a suite of model predictions and tests.

  18. Daily river flow prediction based on Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy Systems Modeling: A case of hydrological - meteorological measurements asymmetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bou-Fakhreddine, Bassam; Mougharbel, Imad; Faye, Alain; Abou Chakra, Sara; Pollet, Yann

    2018-03-01

    Accurate daily river flow forecast is essential in many applications of water resources such as hydropower operation, agricultural planning and flood control. This paper presents a forecasting approach to deal with a newly addressed situation where hydrological data exist for a period longer than that of meteorological data (measurements asymmetry). In fact, one of the potential solutions to resolve measurements asymmetry issue is data re-sampling. It is a matter of either considering only the hydrological data or the balanced part of the hydro-meteorological data set during the forecasting process. However, the main disadvantage is that we may lose potentially relevant information from the left-out data. In this research, the key output is a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy inference hybrid model that is implemented over the non re-sampled data. The introduced modeling approach must be capable of exploiting the available data efficiently with higher prediction efficiency relative to Constructive Fuzzy model trained over re-sampled data set. The study was applied to Litani River in the Bekaa Valley - Lebanon by using 4 years of rainfall and 24 years of river flow daily measurements. A Constructive Fuzzy System Model (C-FSM) and a Two-Phase Constructive Fuzzy System Model (TPC-FSM) are trained. Upon validating, the second model has shown a primarily competitive performance and accuracy with the ability to preserve a higher day-to-day variability for 1, 3 and 6 days ahead. In fact, for the longest lead period, the C-FSM and TPC-FSM were able of explaining respectively 84.6% and 86.5% of the actual river flow variation. Overall, the results indicate that TPC-FSM model has provided a better tool to capture extreme flows in the process of streamflow prediction.

  19. on the performance of Autoregressive Moving Average Polynomial

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Timothy Ademakinwa

    Distributed Lag (PDL) model, Autoregressive Polynomial Distributed Lag ... Moving Average Polynomial Distributed Lag (ARMAPDL) model. ..... Global Journal of Mathematics and Statistics. Vol. 1. ... Business and Economic Research Center.

  20. Distribution of average, marginal, and participation tax rates among Czech taxpayers: results from a TAXBEN model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dušek, Libor; Kalíšková, Klára; Münich, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 6 (2013), s. 474-504 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) TD010033 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : TAXBEN models * average tax rates * marginal tax rates Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.358, year: 2013 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1287_dusek.pdf

  1. Distribution of average, marginal, and participation tax rates among Czech taxpayers: results from a TAXBEN model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dušek, Libor; Kalíšková, Klára; Münich, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 6 (2013), s. 474-504 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) SVV 267801/2013 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : TAXBEN models * average tax rates * marginal tax rates Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.358, year: 2013 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1287_dusek.pdf

  2. Design and implementation of new design of numerical experiments for non linear models; Conception et mise en oeuvre de nouvelles methodes d'elaboration de plans d'experiences pour l'apprentissage de modeles non lineaires

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gazut, St

    2007-03-15

    This thesis addresses the problem of the construction of surrogate models in numerical simulation. Whenever numerical experiments are costly, the simulation model is complex and difficult to use. It is important then to select the numerical experiments as efficiently as possible in order to minimize their number. In statistics, the selection of experiments is known as optimal experimental design. In the context of numerical simulation where no measurement uncertainty is present, we describe an alternative approach based on statistical learning theory and re-sampling techniques. The surrogate models are constructed using neural networks and the generalization error is estimated by leave-one-out, cross-validation and bootstrap. It is shown that the bootstrap can control the over-fitting and extend the concept of leverage for non linear in their parameters surrogate models. The thesis describes an iterative method called LDR for Learner Disagreement from experiment Re-sampling, based on active learning using several surrogate models constructed on bootstrap samples. The method consists in adding new experiments where the predictors constructed from bootstrap samples disagree most. We compare the LDR method with other methods of experimental design such as D-optimal selection. (author)

  3. Modelling of an intermediate pressure microwave oxygen discharge reactor: from stationary two-dimensional to time-dependent global (volume-averaged) plasma models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kemaneci, Efe; Graef, Wouter; Rahimi, Sara; Van Dijk, Jan; Kroesen, Gerrit; Carbone, Emile; Jimenez-Diaz, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    A microwave-induced oxygen plasma is simulated using both stationary and time-resolved modelling strategies. The stationary model is spatially resolved and it is self-consistently coupled to the microwaves (Jimenez-Diaz et al 2012 J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys. 45 335204), whereas the time-resolved description is based on a global (volume-averaged) model (Kemaneci et al 2014 Plasma Sources Sci. Technol. 23 045002). We observe agreement of the global model data with several published measurements of microwave-induced oxygen plasmas in both continuous and modulated power inputs. Properties of the microwave plasma reactor are investigated and corresponding simulation data based on two distinct models shows agreement on the common parameters. The role of the square wave modulated power input is also investigated within the time-resolved description. (paper)

  4. Elimination of hidden a priori information from remotely sensed profile data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. von Clarmann

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Profiles of atmospheric state variables retrieved from remote measurements often contain a priori information which causes complication in the statistical use of data and in the comparison with other measured or modeled data. For such applications it often is desirable to remove the a priori information from the data product. If the retrieval involves an ill-posed inversion problem, formal removal of the a priori information requires resampling of the data on a coarser grid, which in some sense, however, is a prior constraint in itself. The fact that the trace of the averaging kernel matrix of a retrieval is equivalent to the number of degrees of freedom of the retrieval is used to define an appropriate information-centered representation of the data where each data point represents one degree of freedom. Since regridding implies further degradation of the data and thus causes additional loss of information, a re-regularization scheme has been developed which allows resampling without additional loss of information. For a typical ClONO2 profile retrieved from spectra as measured by the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS, the constrained retrieval has 9.7 degrees of freedom. After application of the proposed transformation to a coarser information-centered altitude grid, there are exactly 9 degrees of freedom left, and the averaging kernel on the coarse grid is unity. Pure resampling on the information-centered grid without re-regularization would reduce the degrees of freedom to 7.1 (6.7 for a staircase (triangular representation scheme.

  5. Model Comparison for Breast Cancer Prognosis Based on Clinical Data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sabri Boughorbel

    Full Text Available We compared the performance of several prediction techniques for breast cancer prognosis, based on AU-ROC performance (Area Under ROC for different prognosis periods. The analyzed dataset contained 1,981 patients and from an initial 25 variables, the 11 most common clinical predictors were retained. We compared eight models from a wide spectrum of predictive models, namely; Generalized Linear Model (GLM, GLM-Net, Partial Least Square (PLS, Support Vector Machines (SVM, Random Forests (RF, Neural Networks, k-Nearest Neighbors (k-NN and Boosted Trees. In order to compare these models, paired t-test was applied on the model performance differences obtained from data resampling. Random Forests, Boosted Trees, Partial Least Square and GLMNet have superior overall performance, however they are only slightly higher than the other models. The comparative analysis also allowed us to define a relative variable importance as the average of variable importance from the different models. Two sets of variables are identified from this analysis. The first includes number of positive lymph nodes, tumor size, cancer grade and estrogen receptor, all has an important influence on model predictability. The second set incudes variables related to histological parameters and treatment types. The short term vs long term contribution of the clinical variables are also analyzed from the comparative models. From the various cancer treatment plans, the combination of Chemo/Radio therapy leads to the largest impact on cancer prognosis.

  6. Large Eddy Simulation and Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes modeling of flow in a realistic pharyngeal airway model: an investigation of obstructive sleep apnea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihaescu, Mihai; Murugappan, Shanmugam; Kalra, Maninder; Khosla, Sid; Gutmark, Ephraim

    2008-07-19

    Computational fluid dynamics techniques employing primarily steady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) methodology have been recently used to characterize the transitional/turbulent flow field in human airways. The use of RANS implies that flow phenomena are averaged over time, the flow dynamics not being captured. Further, RANS uses two-equation turbulence models that are not adequate for predicting anisotropic flows, flows with high streamline curvature, or flows where separation occurs. A more accurate approach for such flow situations that occur in the human airway is Large Eddy Simulation (LES). The paper considers flow modeling in a pharyngeal airway model reconstructed from cross-sectional magnetic resonance scans of a patient with obstructive sleep apnea. The airway model is characterized by a maximum narrowing at the site of retropalatal pharynx. Two flow-modeling strategies are employed: steady RANS and the LES approach. In the RANS modeling framework both k-epsilon and k-omega turbulence models are used. The paper discusses the differences between the airflow characteristics obtained from the RANS and LES calculations. The largest discrepancies were found in the axial velocity distributions downstream of the minimum cross-sectional area. This region is characterized by flow separation and large radial velocity gradients across the developed shear layers. The largest difference in static pressure distributions on the airway walls was found between the LES and the k-epsilon data at the site of maximum narrowing in the retropalatal pharynx.

  7. State Averages

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of a variety of averages for each state or territory as well as the national average, including each quality measure, staffing, fine amount and number of...

  8. Grain Size and Parameter Recovery with TIMSS and the General Diagnostic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaggs, Gary; Wilkins, Jesse L. M.; Hein, Serge F.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the degree of grain size of the attributes and the sample sizes that can support accurate parameter recovery with the General Diagnostic Model (GDM) for a large-scale international assessment. In this resampling study, bootstrap samples were obtained from the 2003 Grade 8 TIMSS in Mathematics at varying…

  9. Reynolds-Averaged Turbulence Model Assessment for a Highly Back-Pressured Isolator Flowfield

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, Robert A.; Middleton, Troy F.; Wilson, L. G.

    2012-01-01

    The use of computational fluid dynamics in scramjet engine component development is widespread in the existing literature. Unfortunately, the quantification of model-form uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, requiring that the computational results be intimately tied to and calibrated against existing test data. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Due to ground test facility limitations, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the test and evaluation community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion device. An effort has been initiated at the NASA Langley Research Center to validate several turbulence closure models used for Reynolds-averaged simulations of scramjet isolator flows. The turbulence models considered were the Menter BSL, Menter SST, Wilcox 1998, Wilcox 2006, and the Gatski-Speziale explicit algebraic Reynolds stress models. The simulations were carried out using the VULCAN computational fluid dynamics package developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. A procedure to quantify the numerical errors was developed to account for discretization errors in the validation process. This procedure utilized the grid convergence index defined by Roache as a bounding estimate for the numerical error. The validation data was collected from a mechanically back-pressured constant area (1 2 inch) isolator model with an isolator entrance Mach number of 2.5. As expected, the model-form uncertainty was substantial for the shock-dominated, massively separated flowfield within the isolator as evidenced by a 6 duct height variation in shock train length depending on the turbulence model employed. Generally speaking, the turbulence models that did not include an explicit stress limiter more closely

  10. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soltanzadeh, I. [Tehran Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Inst. of Geophysics; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G.A. [Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Teheran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-07-01

    Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast. (orig.)

  11. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Soltanzadeh

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM, with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009 over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

  12. Wind-Farm Forecasting Using the HARMONIE Weather Forecast Model and Bayes Model Averaging for Bias Removal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Enda; McKinstry, Alastair; Ralph, Adam

    2015-04-01

    Building on previous work presented at EGU 2013 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610213016068 ), more results are available now from a different wind-farm in complex terrain in southwest Ireland. The basic approach is to interpolate wind-speed forecasts from an operational weather forecast model (i.e., HARMONIE in the case of Ireland) to the precise location of each wind-turbine, and then use Bayes Model Averaging (BMA; with statistical information collected from a prior training-period of e.g., 25 days) to remove systematic biases. Bias-corrected wind-speed forecasts (and associated power-generation forecasts) are then provided twice daily (at 5am and 5pm) out to 30 hours, with each forecast validation fed back to BMA for future learning. 30-hr forecasts from the operational Met Éireann HARMONIE model at 2.5km resolution have been validated against turbine SCADA observations since Jan. 2014. An extra high-resolution (0.5km grid-spacing) HARMONIE configuration has been run since Nov. 2014 as an extra member of the forecast "ensemble". A new version of HARMONIE with extra filters designed to stabilize high-resolution configurations has been run since Jan. 2015. Measures of forecast skill and forecast errors will be provided, and the contributions made by the various physical and computational enhancements to HARMONIE will be quantified.

  13. Average nuclear surface properties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groote, H. von.

    1979-01-01

    The definition of the nuclear surface energy is discussed for semi-infinite matter. This definition is extended also for the case that there is a neutron gas instead of vacuum on the one side of the plane surface. The calculations were performed with the Thomas-Fermi Model of Syler and Blanchard. The parameters of the interaction of this model were determined by a least squares fit to experimental masses. The quality of this fit is discussed with respect to nuclear masses and density distributions. The average surface properties were calculated for different particle asymmetry of the nucleon-matter ranging from symmetry beyond the neutron-drip line until the system no longer can maintain the surface boundary and becomes homogeneous. The results of the calculations are incorporated in the nuclear Droplet Model which then was fitted to experimental masses. (orig.)

  14. Bayesian model averaging method for evaluating associations between air pollution and respiratory mortality: a time-series study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xin; Li, Runkui; Kan, Haidong; Bottai, Matteo; Fang, Fang; Cao, Yang

    2016-08-16

    To demonstrate an application of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) and provide a novel modelling technique to assess the association between inhalable coarse particles (PM10) and respiratory mortality in time-series studies. A time-series study using regional death registry between 2009 and 2010. 8 districts in a large metropolitan area in Northern China. 9559 permanent residents of the 8 districts who died of respiratory diseases between 2009 and 2010. Per cent increase in daily respiratory mortality rate (MR) per interquartile range (IQR) increase of PM10 concentration and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) in single-pollutant and multipollutant (including NOx, CO) models. The Bayesian model averaged GAMM (GAMM+BMA) and the optimal GAMM of PM10, multipollutants and principal components (PCs) of multipollutants showed comparable results for the effect of PM10 on daily respiratory MR, that is, one IQR increase in PM10 concentration corresponded to 1.38% vs 1.39%, 1.81% vs 1.83% and 0.87% vs 0.88% increase, respectively, in daily respiratory MR. However, GAMM+BMA gave slightly but noticeable wider CIs for the single-pollutant model (-1.09 to 4.28 vs -1.08 to 3.93) and the PCs-based model (-2.23 to 4.07 vs -2.03 vs 3.88). The CIs of the multiple-pollutant model from two methods are similar, that is, -1.12 to 4.85 versus -1.11 versus 4.83. The BMA method may represent a useful tool for modelling uncertainty in time-series studies when evaluating the effect of air pollution on fatal health outcomes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  15. Testing averaged cosmology with type Ia supernovae and BAO data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, B.; Alcaniz, J.S. [Departamento de Astronomia, Observatório Nacional, 20921-400, Rio de Janeiro – RJ (Brazil); Coley, A.A. [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University, Halifax, B3H 3J5 Canada (Canada); Devi, N. Chandrachani, E-mail: thoven@on.br, E-mail: aac@mathstat.dal.ca, E-mail: chandrachaniningombam@astro.unam.mx, E-mail: alcaniz@on.br [Instituto de Astronomía, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Box 70-264, México City, México (Mexico)

    2017-02-01

    An important problem in precision cosmology is the determination of the effects of averaging and backreaction on observational predictions, particularly in view of the wealth of new observational data and improved statistical techniques. In this paper, we discuss the observational viability of a class of averaged cosmologies which consist of a simple parametrized phenomenological two-scale backreaction model with decoupled spatial curvature parameters. We perform a Bayesian model selection analysis and find that this class of averaged phenomenological cosmological models is favored with respect to the standard ΛCDM cosmological scenario when a joint analysis of current SNe Ia and BAO data is performed. In particular, the analysis provides observational evidence for non-trivial spatial curvature.

  16. Testing averaged cosmology with type Ia supernovae and BAO data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos, B.; Alcaniz, J.S.; Coley, A.A.; Devi, N. Chandrachani

    2017-01-01

    An important problem in precision cosmology is the determination of the effects of averaging and backreaction on observational predictions, particularly in view of the wealth of new observational data and improved statistical techniques. In this paper, we discuss the observational viability of a class of averaged cosmologies which consist of a simple parametrized phenomenological two-scale backreaction model with decoupled spatial curvature parameters. We perform a Bayesian model selection analysis and find that this class of averaged phenomenological cosmological models is favored with respect to the standard ΛCDM cosmological scenario when a joint analysis of current SNe Ia and BAO data is performed. In particular, the analysis provides observational evidence for non-trivial spatial curvature.

  17. Fuzzy modelling of Atlantic salmon physical habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    St-Hilaire, André; Mocq, Julien; Cunjak, Richard

    2015-04-01

    Fish habitat models typically attempt to quantify the amount of available river habitat for a given fish species for various flow and hydraulic conditions. To achieve this, information on the preferred range of values of key physical habitat variables (e.g. water level, velocity, substrate diameter) for the targeted fishs pecies need to be modelled. In this context, we developed several habitat suitability indices sets for three Atlantic salmon life stages (young-of-the-year (YOY), parr, spawning adults) with the help of fuzzy logic modeling. Using the knowledge of twenty-seven experts, from both sides of the Atlantic Ocean, we defined fuzzy sets of four variables (depth, substrate size, velocity and Habitat Suitability Index, or HSI) and associated fuzzy rules. When applied to the Romaine River (Canada), median curves of standardized Weighted Usable Area (WUA) were calculated and a confidence interval was obtained by bootstrap resampling. Despite the large range of WUA covered by the expert WUA curves, confidence intervals were relatively narrow: an average width of 0.095 (on a scale of 0 to 1) for spawning habitat, 0.155 for parr rearing habitat and 0.160 for YOY rearing habitat. When considering an environmental flow value corresponding to 90% of the maximum reached by WUA curve, results seem acceptable for the Romaine River. Generally, this proposed fuzzy logic method seems suitable to model habitat availability for the three life stages, while also providing an estimate of uncertainty in salmon preferences.

  18. How robust are the estimated effects of air pollution on health? Accounting for model uncertainty using Bayesian model averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pannullo, Francesca; Lee, Duncan; Waclawski, Eugene; Leyland, Alastair H

    2016-08-01

    The long-term impact of air pollution on human health can be estimated from small-area ecological studies in which the health outcome is regressed against air pollution concentrations and other covariates, such as socio-economic deprivation. Socio-economic deprivation is multi-factorial and difficult to measure, and includes aspects of income, education, and housing as well as others. However, these variables are potentially highly correlated, meaning one can either create an overall deprivation index, or use the individual characteristics, which can result in a variety of pollution-health effects. Other aspects of model choice may affect the pollution-health estimate, such as the estimation of pollution, and spatial autocorrelation model. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian model averaging approach to combine the results from multiple statistical models to produce a more robust representation of the overall pollution-health effect. We investigate the relationship between nitrogen dioxide concentrations and cardio-respiratory mortality in West Central Scotland between 2006 and 2012. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Implementing reduced-risk integrated pest management in fresh-market cabbage: influence of sampling parameters, and validation of binomial sequential sampling plans for the cabbage looper (Lepidoptera Noctuidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkness, Eric C; Hutchison, W D

    2009-10-01

    Populations of cabbage looper, Trichoplusiani (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), were sampled in experimental plots and commercial fields of cabbage (Brasicca spp.) in Minnesota during 1998-1999 as part of a larger effort to implement an integrated pest management program. Using a resampling approach and the Wald's sequential probability ratio test, sampling plans with different sampling parameters were evaluated using independent presence/absence and enumerative data. Evaluations and comparisons of the different sampling plans were made based on the operating characteristic and average sample number functions generated for each plan and through the use of a decision probability matrix. Values for upper and lower decision boundaries, sequential error rates (alpha, beta), and tally threshold were modified to determine parameter influence on the operating characteristic and average sample number functions. The following parameters resulted in the most desirable operating characteristic and average sample number functions; action threshold of 0.1 proportion of plants infested, tally threshold of 1, alpha = beta = 0.1, upper boundary of 0.15, lower boundary of 0.05, and resampling with replacement. We found that sampling parameters can be modified and evaluated using resampling software to achieve desirable operating characteristic and average sample number functions. Moreover, management of T. ni by using binomial sequential sampling should provide a good balance between cost and reliability by minimizing sample size and maintaining a high level of correct decisions (>95%) to treat or not treat.

  20. Active surface model improvement by energy function optimization for 3D segmentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimifar, Zohreh; Mohaddesi, Mahsa

    2015-04-01

    This paper proposes an optimized and efficient active surface model by improving the energy functions, searching method, neighborhood definition and resampling criterion. Extracting an accurate surface of the desired object from a number of 3D images using active surface and deformable models plays an important role in computer vision especially medical image processing. Different powerful segmentation algorithms have been suggested to address the limitations associated with the model initialization, poor convergence to surface concavities and slow convergence rate. This paper proposes a method to improve one of the strongest and recent segmentation algorithms, namely the Decoupled Active Surface (DAS) method. We consider a gradient of wavelet edge extracted image and local phase coherence as external energy to extract more information from images and we use curvature integral as internal energy to focus on high curvature region extraction. Similarly, we use resampling of points and a line search for point selection to improve the accuracy of the algorithm. We further employ an estimation of the desired object as an initialization for the active surface model. A number of tests and experiments have been done and the results show the improvements with regards to the extracted surface accuracy and computational time of the presented algorithm compared with the best and recent active surface models. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Metallurgical source-contribution analysis of PM10 annual average concentration: A dispersion modeling approach in moravian-silesian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jančík

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article is to present analysis of metallurgical industry contribution to annual average PM10 concentrations in Moravian-Silesian based on means of the air pollution modelling in accord with the Czech reference methodology SYMOS´97.

  2. USEFULNESS OF BOOTSTRAPPING IN PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Radovanov

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper contains a comparison of in-sample and out-of-sample performances between the resampled efficiency technique, patented by Richard Michaud and Robert Michaud (1999, and traditional Mean-Variance portfolio selection, presented by Harry Markowitz (1952. Based on the Monte Carlo simulation, data (samples generation process determines the algorithms by using both, parametric and nonparametric bootstrap techniques. Resampled efficiency provides the solution to use uncertain information without the need for constrains in portfolio optimization. Parametric bootstrap process starts with a parametric model specification, where we apply Capital Asset Pricing Model. After the estimation of specified model, the series of residuals are used for resampling process. On the other hand, nonparametric bootstrap divides series of price returns into the new series of blocks containing previous determined number of consecutive price returns. This procedure enables smooth resampling process and preserves the original structure of data series.

  3. Maximum-likelihood model averaging to profile clustering of site types across discrete linear sequences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Zhang

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A major analytical challenge in computational biology is the detection and description of clusters of specified site types, such as polymorphic or substituted sites within DNA or protein sequences. Progress has been stymied by a lack of suitable methods to detect clusters and to estimate the extent of clustering in discrete linear sequences, particularly when there is no a priori specification of cluster size or cluster count. Here we derive and demonstrate a maximum likelihood method of hierarchical clustering. Our method incorporates a tripartite divide-and-conquer strategy that models sequence heterogeneity, delineates clusters, and yields a profile of the level of clustering associated with each site. The clustering model may be evaluated via model selection using the Akaike Information Criterion, the corrected Akaike Information Criterion, and the Bayesian Information Criterion. Furthermore, model averaging using weighted model likelihoods may be applied to incorporate model uncertainty into the profile of heterogeneity across sites. We evaluated our method by examining its performance on a number of simulated datasets as well as on empirical polymorphism data from diverse natural alleles of the Drosophila alcohol dehydrogenase gene. Our method yielded greater power for the detection of clustered sites across a breadth of parameter ranges, and achieved better accuracy and precision of estimation of clusters, than did the existing empirical cumulative distribution function statistics.

  4. Modelling and analysis of turbulent datasets using Auto Regressive Moving Average processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faranda, Davide; Dubrulle, Bérengère; Daviaud, François; Pons, Flavio Maria Emanuele; Saint-Michel, Brice; Herbert, Éric; Cortet, Pierre-Philippe

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel way to extract information from turbulent datasets by applying an Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) statistical analysis. Such analysis goes well beyond the analysis of the mean flow and of the fluctuations and links the behavior of the recorded time series to a discrete version of a stochastic differential equation which is able to describe the correlation structure in the dataset. We introduce a new index Υ that measures the difference between the resulting analysis and the Obukhov model of turbulence, the simplest stochastic model reproducing both Richardson law and the Kolmogorov spectrum. We test the method on datasets measured in a von Kármán swirling flow experiment. We found that the ARMA analysis is well correlated with spatial structures of the flow, and can discriminate between two different flows with comparable mean velocities, obtained by changing the forcing. Moreover, we show that the Υ is highest in regions where shear layer vortices are present, thereby establishing a link between deviations from the Kolmogorov model and coherent structures. These deviations are consistent with the ones observed by computing the Hurst exponents for the same time series. We show that some salient features of the analysis are preserved when considering global instead of local observables. Finally, we analyze flow configurations with multistability features where the ARMA technique is efficient in discriminating different stability branches of the system

  5. Non-self-averaging nucleation rate due to quenched disorder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sear, Richard P

    2012-01-01

    We study the nucleation of a new thermodynamic phase in the presence of quenched disorder. The quenched disorder is a generic model of both impurities and disordered porous media; both are known to have large effects on nucleation. We find that the nucleation rate is non-self-averaging. This is in a simple Ising model with clusters of quenched spins. We also show that non-self-averaging behaviour is straightforward to detect in experiments, and may be rather common. (fast track communication)

  6. Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Drachal

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents results from modelling spot oil prices by Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA. First, based on a literature review and availability of data, the following oil price drivers have been selected: stock prices indices, stock prices volatility index, exchange rates, global economic activity, interest rates, supply and demand indicators and inventories level. Next, they have been included as explanatory variables in various DMA models with different initial parameters. Monthly data between January 1986 and December 2015 has been analyzed. Several variations of DMA models have been constructed, because DMA requires the initial setting of certain parameters. Interestingly, DMA has occurred to be robust to setting different values to these parameters. It has also occurred that the quality of prediction is the highest for the model with the drivers solely connected with the stock markets behavior. Drivers connected with macroeconomic fundamental indicators have not been found so important. This observation can serve as an argument favoring the hypothesis of the increasing financialization of the oil market, at least in the short-term period. The predictions from other, slightly different modelling variations based on DMA methodology, have happened to be consistent with each other in general. Many constructed models have outperformed alternative forecasting methods. It has also been found that normalization of the initial data, although not necessary for DMA from the theoretical point of view, significantly improves the quality of prediction.

  7. Large-signal analysis of DC motor drive system using state-space averaging technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekir Yildiz, Ali

    2008-01-01

    The analysis of a separately excited DC motor driven by DC-DC converter is realized by using state-space averaging technique. Firstly, a general and unified large-signal averaged circuit model for DC-DC converters is given. The method converts power electronic systems, which are periodic time-variant because of their switching operation, to unified and time independent systems. Using the averaged circuit model enables us to combine the different topologies of converters. Thus, all analysis and design processes about DC motor can be easily realized by using the unified averaged model which is valid during whole period. Some large-signal variations such as speed and current relating to DC motor, steady-state analysis, large-signal and small-signal transfer functions are easily obtained by using the averaged circuit model

  8. Forecast of sea surface temperature off the Peruvian coast using an autoregressive integrated moving average model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Quispe

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available El Niño connects globally climate, ecosystems and socio-economic activities. Since 1980 this event has been tried to be predicted, but until now the statistical and dynamical models are insuffi cient. Thus, the objective of the present work was to explore using an autoregressive moving average model the effect of El Niño over the sea surface temperature (TSM off the Peruvian coast. The work involved 5 stages: identifi cation, estimation, diagnostic checking, forecasting and validation. Simple and partial autocorrelation functions (FAC and FACP were used to identify and reformulate the orders of the model parameters, as well as Akaike information criterium (AIC and Schwarz criterium (SC for the selection of the best models during the diagnostic checking. Among the main results the models ARIMA(12,0,11 were proposed, which simulated monthly conditions in agreement with the observed conditions off the Peruvian coast: cold conditions at the end of 2004, and neutral conditions at the beginning of 2005.

  9. SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J; El Naqa, I

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible

  10. SU-F-R-44: Modeling Lung SBRT Tumor Response Using Bayesian Network Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diamant, A; Ybarra, N; Seuntjens, J [McGill University, Montreal, Quebec (Canada); El Naqa, I [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: The prediction of tumor control after a patient receives lung SBRT (stereotactic body radiation therapy) has proven to be challenging, due to the complex interactions between an individual’s biology and dose-volume metrics. Many of these variables have predictive power when combined, a feature that we exploit using a graph modeling approach based on Bayesian networks. This provides a probabilistic framework that allows for accurate and visually intuitive predictive modeling. The aim of this study is to uncover possible interactions between an individual patient’s characteristics and generate a robust model capable of predicting said patient’s treatment outcome. Methods: We investigated a cohort of 32 prospective patients from multiple institutions whom had received curative SBRT to the lung. The number of patients exhibiting tumor failure was observed to be 7 (event rate of 22%). The serum concentration of 5 biomarkers previously associated with NSCLC (non-small cell lung cancer) was measured pre-treatment. A total of 21 variables were analyzed including: dose-volume metrics with BED (biologically effective dose) correction and clinical variables. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior probability distribution of the potential graphical structures. The probability of tumor failure was then estimated by averaging the top 100 graphs and applying Baye’s rule. Results: The optimal Bayesian model generated throughout this study incorporated the PTV volume, the serum concentration of the biomarker EGFR (epidermal growth factor receptor) and prescription BED. This predictive model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.94(1), providing better performance compared to competing methods in other literature. Conclusion: The use of biomarkers in conjunction with dose-volume metrics allows for the generation of a robust predictive model. The preliminary results of this report demonstrate that it is possible

  11. A PLL-based resampling technique for vibration analysis in variable-speed wind turbines with PMSG: A bearing fault case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzani, Carlos M.; Bossio, José M.; Castellino, Ariel M.; Bossio, Guillermo R.; De Angelo, Cristian H.

    2017-02-01

    Condition monitoring in permanent magnet synchronous machines has gained interest due to the increasing use in applications such as electric traction and power generation. Particularly in wind power generation, non-invasive condition monitoring techniques are of great importance. Usually, in such applications the access to the generator is complex and costly, while unexpected breakdowns results in high repair costs. This paper presents a technique which allows using vibration analysis for bearing fault detection in permanent magnet synchronous generators used in wind turbines. Given that in wind power applications the generator rotational speed may vary during normal operation, it is necessary to use special sampling techniques to apply spectral analysis of mechanical vibrations. In this work, a resampling technique based on order tracking without measuring the rotor position is proposed. To synchronize sampling with rotor position, an estimation of the rotor position obtained from the angle of the voltage vector is proposed. This angle is obtained from a phase-locked loop synchronized with the generator voltages. The proposed strategy is validated by laboratory experimental results obtained from a permanent magnet synchronous generator. Results with single point defects in the outer race of a bearing under variable speed and load conditions are presented.

  12. Average stopping powers for electron and photon sources for radiobiological modeling and microdosimetric applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassiliev, Oleg N.; Kry, Stephen F.; Grosshans, David R.; Mohan, Radhe

    2018-03-01

    This study concerns calculation of the average electronic stopping power for photon and electron sources. It addresses two problems that have not yet been fully resolved. The first is defining the electron spectrum used for averaging in a way that is most suitable for radiobiological modeling. We define it as the spectrum of electrons entering the sensitive to radiation volume (SV) within the cell nucleus, at the moment they enter the SV. For this spectrum we derive a formula that combines linearly the fluence spectrum and the source spectrum. The latter is the distribution of initial energies of electrons produced by a source. Previous studies used either the fluence or source spectra, but not both, thereby neglecting a part of the complete spectrum. Our derived formula reduces to these two prior methods in the case of high and low energy sources, respectively. The second problem is extending electron spectra to low energies. Previous studies used an energy cut-off on the order of 1 keV. However, as we show, even for high energy sources, such as 60Co, electrons with energies below 1 keV contribute about 30% to the dose. In this study all the spectra were calculated with Geant4-DNA code and a cut-off energy of only 11 eV. We present formulas for calculating frequency- and dose-average stopping powers, numerical results for several important electron and photon sources, and tables with all the data needed to use our formulas for arbitrary electron and photon sources producing electrons with initial energies up to  ∼1 MeV.

  13. A Smoothing Algorithm for a New Two-Stage Stochastic Model of Supply Chain Based on Sample Average Approximation

    OpenAIRE

    Liu Yang; Yao Xiong; Xiao-jiao Tong

    2017-01-01

    We construct a new two-stage stochastic model of supply chain with multiple factories and distributors for perishable product. By introducing a second-order stochastic dominance (SSD) constraint, we can describe the preference consistency of the risk taker while minimizing the expected cost of company. To solve this problem, we convert it into a one-stage stochastic model equivalently; then we use sample average approximation (SAA) method to approximate the expected values of the underlying r...

  14. Application of Depth-Averaged Velocity Profile for Estimation of Longitudinal Dispersion in Rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Givehchi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available River bed profiles and depth-averaged velocities are used as basic data in empirical and analytical equations for estimating the longitudinal dispersion coefficient which has always been a topic of great interest for researchers. The simple model proposed by Maghrebi is capable of predicting the normalized isovel contours in the cross section of rivers and channels as well as the depth-averaged velocity profiles. The required data in Maghrebi’s model are bed profile, shear stress, and roughness distributions. Comparison of depth-averaged velocities and longitudinal dispersion coefficients observed in the field data and those predicted by Maghrebi’s model revealed that Maghrebi’s model had an acceptable accuracy in predicting depth-averaged velocity.

  15. Short-term electricity prices forecasting based on support vector regression and Auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Che Jinxing; Wang Jianzhou

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present the use of different mathematical models to forecast electricity price under deregulated power. A successful prediction tool of electricity price can help both power producers and consumers plan their bidding strategies. Inspired by that the support vector regression (SVR) model, with the ε-insensitive loss function, admits of the residual within the boundary values of ε-tube, we propose a hybrid model that combines both SVR and Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to take advantage of the unique strength of SVR and ARIMA models in nonlinear and linear modeling, which is called SVRARIMA. A nonlinear analysis of the time-series indicates the convenience of nonlinear modeling, the SVR is applied to capture the nonlinear patterns. ARIMA models have been successfully applied in solving the residuals regression estimation problems. The experimental results demonstrate that the model proposed outperforms the existing neural-network approaches, the traditional ARIMA models and other hybrid models based on the root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error.

  16. A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

    2011-12-01

    Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

  17. Development of realistic high-resolution whole-body voxel models of Japanese adult males and females of average height and weight, and application of models to radio-frequency electromagnetic-field dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagaoka, Tomoaki; Watanabe, Soichi; Sakurai, Kiyoko; Kunieda, Etsuo; Watanabe, Satoshi; Taki, Masao; Yamanaka, Yukio

    2004-01-01

    With advances in computer performance, the use of high-resolution voxel models of the entire human body has become more frequent in numerical dosimetries of electromagnetic waves. Using magnetic resonance imaging, we have developed realistic high-resolution whole-body voxel models for Japanese adult males and females of average height and weight. The developed models consist of cubic voxels of 2 mm on each side; the models are segmented into 51 anatomic regions. The adult female model is the first of its kind in the world and both are the first Asian voxel models (representing average Japanese) that enable numerical evaluation of electromagnetic dosimetry at high frequencies of up to 3 GHz. In this paper, we will also describe the basic SAR characteristics of the developed models for the VHF/UHF bands, calculated using the finite-difference time-domain method

  18. An averaged polarizable potential for multiscale modeling in phospholipid membranes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Witzke, Sarah; List, Nanna Holmgaard; Olsen, Jógvan Magnus Haugaard

    2017-01-01

    A set of average atom-centered charges and polarizabilities has been developed for three types of phospholipids for use in polarizable embedding calculations. The lipids investigated are 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, 1-palmitoyl-2-oleoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine, and 1-palmitoyl...

  19. Numerical calculation of the dispersion of heat and material in rivers by means of a depth-averaged model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pavlovic, R.N.

    1981-01-01

    Nowadays, our rivers are polluted to an ever increasing degree by industrial and domestic discharges of waste heat and sewage. An important task of environmental protection is to predict the consequences of such pollutions in order to be able to plan and perform protective measures. For the solution of this problem a reliable mathematical model is very helpful. In the present paper a depth-averaged model is developed consisting of a two-dimensional elliptical model component for the direct near-field of a discharge and a two-dimensional parabolic separate model for the calculation of longer river distances further downstream. This model is exhaustively tested by application to a number of laboratory flows and real discharges to rivers. (orig./RW) [de

  20. Benchmarking statistical averaging of spectra with HULLAC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klapisch, Marcel; Busquet, Michel

    2008-11-01

    Knowledge of radiative properties of hot plasmas is important for ICF, astrophysics, etc When mid-Z or high-Z elements are present, the spectra are so complex that one commonly uses statistically averaged description of atomic systems [1]. In a recent experiment on Fe[2], performed under controlled conditions, high resolution transmission spectra were obtained. The new version of HULLAC [3] allows the use of the same model with different levels of details/averaging. We will take advantage of this feature to check the effect of averaging with comparison with experiment. [1] A Bar-Shalom, J Oreg, and M Klapisch, J. Quant. Spectros. Rad. Transf. 65, 43 (2000). [2] J. E. Bailey, G. A. Rochau, C. A. Iglesias et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 265002-4 (2007). [3]. M. Klapisch, M. Busquet, and A. Bar-Shalom, AIP Conference Proceedings 926, 206-15 (2007).

  1. A highly detailed FEM volume conductor model based on the ICBM152 average head template for EEG source imaging and TCS targeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haufe, Stefan; Huang, Yu; Parra, Lucas C

    2015-08-01

    In electroencephalographic (EEG) source imaging as well as in transcranial current stimulation (TCS), it is common to model the head using either three-shell boundary element (BEM) or more accurate finite element (FEM) volume conductor models. Since building FEMs is computationally demanding and labor intensive, they are often extensively reused as templates even for subjects with mismatching anatomies. BEMs can in principle be used to efficiently build individual volume conductor models; however, the limiting factor for such individualization are the high acquisition costs of structural magnetic resonance images. Here, we build a highly detailed (0.5mm(3) resolution, 6 tissue type segmentation, 231 electrodes) FEM based on the ICBM152 template, a nonlinear average of 152 adult human heads, which we call ICBM-NY. We show that, through more realistic electrical modeling, our model is similarly accurate as individual BEMs. Moreover, through using an unbiased population average, our model is also more accurate than FEMs built from mismatching individual anatomies. Our model is made available in Matlab format.

  2. Hybrid Large Eddy Simulation / Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes Modeling in Directed Energy Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zilberter, Ilya Alexandrovich

    In this work, a hybrid Large Eddy Simulation / Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes (LES/RANS) turbulence model is applied to simulate two flows relevant to directed energy applications. The flow solver blends the Menter Baseline turbulence closure near solid boundaries with a Lenormand-type subgrid model in the free-stream with a blending function that employs the ratio of estimated inner and outer turbulent length scales. A Mach 2.2 mixing nozzle/diffuser system representative of a gas laser is simulated under a range of exit pressures to assess the ability of the model to predict the dynamics of the shock train. The simulation captures the location of the shock train responsible for pressure recovery but under-predicts the rate of pressure increase. Predicted turbulence production at the wall is found to be highly sensitive to the behavior of the RANS turbulence model. A Mach 2.3, high-Reynolds number, three-dimensional cavity flow is also simulated in order to compute the wavefront aberrations of an optical beam passing thorough the cavity. The cavity geometry is modeled using an immersed boundary method, and an auxiliary flat plate simulation is performed to replicate the effects of the wind-tunnel boundary layer on the computed optical path difference. Pressure spectra extracted on the cavity walls agree with empirical predictions based on Rossiter's formula. Proper orthogonal modes of the wavefront aberrations in a beam originating from the cavity center agree well with experimental data despite uncertainty about in flow turbulence levels and boundary layer thicknesses over the wind tunnel window. Dynamic mode decomposition of a planar wavefront spanning the cavity reveals that wavefront distortions are driven by shear layer oscillations at the Rossiter frequencies; these disturbances create eddy shocklets that propagate into the free-stream, creating additional optical wavefront distortion.

  3. Neutron resonance averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chrien, R.E.

    1986-10-01

    The principles of resonance averaging as applied to neutron capture reactions are described. Several illustrations of resonance averaging to problems of nuclear structure and the distribution of radiative strength in nuclei are provided. 30 refs., 12 figs

  4. Point-by-point model description of average prompt neutron data as a function of total kinetic energy of fission fragments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tudora, A.

    2013-01-01

    The experimental data of average prompt neutron multiplicity as a function of total kinetic energy of fragments <ν>(TKE) exhibit, especially in the case of 252 Cf(SF), different slopes dTKE/dν and different behaviours at low TKE values. The Point-by-Point (PbP) model can describe these different behaviours. The higher slope dTKE/dν and the flattening of <ν> at low TKE exhibited by a part of experimental data sets is very well reproduced when the PbP multi-parametric matrix ν(A,TKE) is averaged over a double distribution Y(A,TKE). The lower slope and the almost linear behaviour over the entire TKE range exhibited by other data sets is well described when the same matrix ν(A,TKE) is averaged over a single distribution Y(A). In the case of average prompt neutron energy in SCM as a function of TKE, different dTKE/dε slopes are also obtained by averaging the same PbP matrix ε(A,TKE) over Y(A,TKE) and over Y(A). The results are exemplified for 3 fissioning systems benefiting of experimental data as a function of TKE: 252 Cf(SF), 235 U(n th ,f) and 239 Pu(n th ,f). In the case of 234 U(n,f) for the first time it was possible to calculate <ν>(TKE) and <ε>(TKE) at many incident energies by averaging the PbP multi-parametric matrices over the experimental Y(A,TKE) distributions recently measured at IRMM for 14 incident energies in the range 0.3- 5 MeV. The results revealed that the slope dTKE/dν does not vary with the incident energy and the flattening of <ν> at low TKE values is more pronounced at low incident energies. The average model parameters dependences on TKE resulted from the PbP treatment allow the use of the most probable fragmentation approach, having the great advantage to provide results at many TKE values in a very short computing time compared to PbP and Monte Carlo treatments. (author)

  5. Parametric Study of Flow Control Over a Hump Model Using an Unsteady Reynolds- Averaged Navier-Stokes Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumsey, Christopher L.; Greenblatt, David

    2007-01-01

    This is an expanded version of a limited-length paper that appeared at the 5th International Symposium on Turbulence and Shear Flow Phenomena by the same authors. A computational study was performed for steady and oscillatory flow control over a hump model with flow separation to assess how well the steady and unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations predict trends due to Reynolds number, control magnitude, and control frequency. As demonstrated in earlier studies, the hump model case is useful because it clearly demonstrates a failing in all known turbulence models: they under-predict the turbulent shear stress in the separated region and consequently reattachment occurs too far downstream. In spite of this known failing, three different turbulence models were employed to determine if trends can be captured even though absolute levels are not. Overall the three turbulence models showed very similar trends as experiment for steady suction, but only agreed qualitatively with some of the trends for oscillatory control.

  6. An upscaled two-equation model of transport in porous media through unsteady-state closure of volume averaged formulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaynikov, S.; Porta, G.; Riva, M.; Guadagnini, A.

    2012-04-01

    We focus on a theoretical analysis of nonreactive solute transport in porous media through the volume averaging technique. Darcy-scale transport models based on continuum formulations typically include large scale dispersive processes which are embedded in a pore-scale advection diffusion equation through a Fickian analogy. This formulation has been extensively questioned in the literature due to its inability to depict observed solute breakthrough curves in diverse settings, ranging from the laboratory to the field scales. The heterogeneity of the pore-scale velocity field is one of the key sources of uncertainties giving rise to anomalous (non-Fickian) dispersion in macro-scale porous systems. Some of the models which are employed to interpret observed non-Fickian solute behavior make use of a continuum formulation of the porous system which assumes a two-region description and includes a bimodal velocity distribution. A first class of these models comprises the so-called ''mobile-immobile'' conceptualization, where convective and dispersive transport mechanisms are considered to dominate within a high velocity region (mobile zone), while convective effects are neglected in a low velocity region (immobile zone). The mass exchange between these two regions is assumed to be controlled by a diffusive process and is macroscopically described by a first-order kinetic. An extension of these ideas is the two equation ''mobile-mobile'' model, where both transport mechanisms are taken into account in each region and a first-order mass exchange between regions is employed. Here, we provide an analytical derivation of two region "mobile-mobile" meso-scale models through a rigorous upscaling of the pore-scale advection diffusion equation. Among the available upscaling methodologies, we employ the Volume Averaging technique. In this approach, the heterogeneous porous medium is supposed to be pseudo-periodic, and can be represented through a (spatially) periodic unit cell

  7. Exploring Modeling Options and Conversion of Average Response to Appropriate Vibration Envelopes for a Typical Cylindrical Vehicle Panel with Rib-stiffened Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Phil; LaVerde, Bruce; Teague, David

    2009-01-01

    Although applications for Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) techniques are more widely used in the aerospace industry today, opportunities to anchor the response predictions using measured data from a flight-like launch vehicle structure are still quite valuable. Response and excitation data from a ground acoustic test at the Marshall Space Flight Center permitted the authors to compare and evaluate several modeling techniques available in the SEA module of the commercial code VA One. This paper provides an example of vibration response estimates developed using different modeling approaches to both approximate and bound the response of a flight-like vehicle panel. Since both vibration response and acoustic levels near the panel were available from the ground test, the evaluation provided an opportunity to learn how well the different modeling options can match band-averaged spectra developed from the test data. Additional work was performed to understand the spatial averaging of the measurements across the panel from measured data. Finally an evaluation/comparison of two conversion approaches from the statistical average response results that are output from an SEA analysis to a more useful envelope of response spectra appropriate to specify design and test vibration levels for a new vehicle.

  8. A dynamic analysis of moving average rules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chiarella, C.; He, X.Z.; Hommes, C.H.

    2006-01-01

    The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type

  9. Monthly streamflow forecasting with auto-regressive integrated moving average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasir, Najah; Samsudin, Ruhaidah; Shabri, Ani

    2017-09-01

    Forecasting of streamflow is one of the many ways that can contribute to better decision making for water resource management. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was selected in this research for monthly streamflow forecasting with enhancement made by pre-processing the data using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). This study also proposed an extension of the SSA technique to include a step where clustering was performed on the eigenvector pairs before reconstruction of the time series. The monthly streamflow data of Sungai Muda at Jeniang, Sungai Muda at Jambatan Syed Omar and Sungai Ketil at Kuala Pegang was gathered from the Department of Irrigation and Drainage Malaysia. A ratio of 9:1 was used to divide the data into training and testing sets. The ARIMA, SSA-ARIMA and Clustered SSA-ARIMA models were all developed in R software. Results from the proposed model are then compared to a conventional auto-regressive integrated moving average model using the root-mean-square error and mean absolute error values. It was found that the proposed model can outperform the conventional model.

  10. Single nuclear transfer strengths and sum rules in the interacting boson-fermion model and in the spectral averaging theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kota, V.K.B.

    1991-01-01

    In the interacting boson-fermion model of collective nuclei, in the symmetry limits of the model appropriate for vibrational, rotational and γ-unstable nuclei, for one-particle transfer, the selection rules, model predictions for the allowed strengths and comparison of theory with experiment are briefly reviewed. In the spectral-averaging theory, with the specific example of orbit occupancies, the smoothed forms (linear or better ratio of Gaussians) as determined by central limit theorems, how they provide a good criterion for selecting effective interactions and the convolution structure of occupancy densities in huge spaces are described. Complementary information provided by nuclear models and statistical laws is broughtout. (author). 63 refs., 5 figs

  11. Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging: a method for the application of survival analysis to high-dimensional microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raftery Adrian E

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Microarray technology is increasingly used to identify potential biomarkers for cancer prognostics and diagnostics. Previously, we have developed the iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA algorithm for use in classification. Here, we extend the iterative BMA algorithm for application to survival analysis on high-dimensional microarray data. The main goal in applying survival analysis to microarray data is to determine a highly predictive model of patients' time to event (such as death, relapse, or metastasis using a small number of selected genes. Our multivariate procedure combines the effectiveness of multiple contending models by calculating the weighted average of their posterior probability distributions. Our results demonstrate that our iterative BMA algorithm for survival analysis achieves high prediction accuracy while consistently selecting a small and cost-effective number of predictor genes. Results We applied the iterative BMA algorithm to two cancer datasets: breast cancer and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL data. On the breast cancer data, the algorithm selected a total of 15 predictor genes across 84 contending models from the training data. The maximum likelihood estimates of the selected genes and the posterior probabilities of the selected models from the training data were used to divide patients in the test (or validation dataset into high- and low-risk categories. Using the genes and models determined from the training data, we assigned patients from the test data into highly distinct risk groups (as indicated by a p-value of 7.26e-05 from the log-rank test. Moreover, we achieved comparable results using only the 5 top selected genes with 100% posterior probabilities. On the DLBCL data, our iterative BMA procedure selected a total of 25 genes across 3 contending models from the training data. Once again, we assigned the patients in the validation set to significantly distinct risk groups (p

  12. Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Hylke E.; van Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; de Roo, Ad; Dutra, Emanuel; Fink, Gabriel; Orth, Rene; Schellekens, Jaap

    2017-06-01

    Observed streamflow data from 966 medium sized catchments (1000-5000 km2) around the globe were used to comprehensively evaluate the daily runoff estimates (1979-2012) of six global hydrological models (GHMs) and four land surface models (LSMs) produced as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. The models were all driven by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological dataset, but used different datasets for non-meteorologic inputs and were run at various spatial and temporal resolutions, although all data were re-sampled to a common 0. 5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. For the evaluation, we used a broad range of performance metrics related to important aspects of the hydrograph. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty in addition to climate input uncertainty, for example in studies assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. The uncalibrated GHMs were found to perform, on average, better than the uncalibrated LSMs in snow-dominated regions, while the ensemble mean was found to perform only slightly worse than the best (calibrated) model. The inclusion of less-accurate models did not appreciably degrade the ensemble performance. Overall, we argue that more effort should be devoted on calibrating and regionalizing the parameters of macro-scale models. We further found that, despite adjustments using gauge observations, the WFDEI precipitation data still contain substantial biases that propagate into the simulated runoff. The early bias in the spring snowmelt peak exhibited by most models is probably primarily due to the widespread precipitation underestimation at high northern latitudes.

  13. Spatial land-use inventory, modeling, and projection/Denver metropolitan area, with inputs from existing maps, airphotos, and LANDSAT imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tom, C.; Miller, L. D.; Christenson, J. W.

    1978-01-01

    A landscape model was constructed with 34 land-use, physiographic, socioeconomic, and transportation maps. A simple Markov land-use trend model was constructed from observed rates of change and nonchange from photointerpreted 1963 and 1970 airphotos. Seven multivariate land-use projection models predicting 1970 spatial land-use changes achieved accuracies from 42 to 57 percent. A final modeling strategy was designed, which combines both Markov trend and multivariate spatial projection processes. Landsat-1 image preprocessing included geometric rectification/resampling, spectral-band, and band/insolation ratioing operations. A new, systematic grid-sampled point training-set approach proved to be useful when tested on the four orginal MSS bands, ten image bands and ratios, and all 48 image and map variables (less land use). Ten variable accuracy was raised over 15 percentage points from 38.4 to 53.9 percent, with the use of the 31 ancillary variables. A land-use classification map was produced with an optimal ten-channel subset of four image bands and six ancillary map variables. Point-by-point verification of 331,776 points against a 1972/1973 U.S. Geological Survey (UGSG) land-use map prepared with airphotos and the same classification scheme showed average first-, second-, and third-order accuracies of 76.3, 58.4, and 33.0 percent, respectively.

  14. Autoregressive-moving-average hidden Markov model for vision-based fall prediction-An application for walker robot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghvaei, Sajjad; Jahanandish, Mohammad Hasan; Kosuge, Kazuhiro

    2017-01-01

    Population aging of the societies requires providing the elderly with safe and dependable assistive technologies in daily life activities. Improving the fall detection algorithms can play a major role in achieving this goal. This article proposes a real-time fall prediction algorithm based on the acquired visual data of a user with walking assistive system from a depth sensor. In the lack of a coupled dynamic model of the human and the assistive walker a hybrid "system identification-machine learning" approach is used. An autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model is fitted on the time-series walking data to forecast the upcoming states, and a hidden Markov model (HMM) based classifier is built on the top of the ARMA model to predict falling in the upcoming time frames. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated through experiments with four subjects including an experienced physiotherapist while using a walker robot in five different falling scenarios; namely, fall forward, fall down, fall back, fall left, and fall right. The algorithm successfully predicts the fall with a rate of 84.72%.

  15. Reduced fractal model for quantitative analysis of averaged micromotions in mesoscale: Characterization of blow-like signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigmatullin, Raoul R.; Toboev, Vyacheslav A.; Lino, Paolo; Maione, Guido

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •A new approach describes fractal-branched systems with long-range fluctuations. •A reduced fractal model is proposed. •The approach is used to characterize blow-like signals. •The approach is tested on data from different fields. -- Abstract: It has been shown that many micromotions in the mesoscale region are averaged in accordance with their self-similar (geometrical/dynamical) structure. This distinctive feature helps to reduce a wide set of different micromotions describing relaxation/exchange processes to an averaged collective motion, expressed mathematically in a rather general form. This reduction opens new perspectives in description of different blow-like signals (BLS) in many complex systems. The main characteristic of these signals is a finite duration also when the generalized reduced function is used for their quantitative fitting. As an example, we describe quantitatively available signals that are generated by bronchial asthmatic people, songs by queen bees, and car engine valves operating in the idling regime. We develop a special treatment procedure based on the eigen-coordinates (ECs) method that allows to justify the generalized reduced fractal model (RFM) for description of BLS that can propagate in different complex systems. The obtained describing function is based on the self-similar properties of the different considered micromotions. This kind of cooperative model is proposed here for the first time. In spite of the fact that the nature of the dynamic processes that take place in fractal structure on a mesoscale level is not well understood, the parameters of the RFM fitting function can be used for construction of calibration curves, affected by various external/random factors. Then, the calculated set of the fitting parameters of these calibration curves can characterize BLS of different complex systems affected by those factors. Though the method to construct and analyze the calibration curves goes beyond the scope

  16. An ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach for discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Wei; Liu, Junguo; Yang, Hong; Sweetapple, Chris

    2018-03-01

    Global precipitation products are very important datasets in flow simulations, especially in poorly gauged regions. Uncertainties resulting from precipitation products, hydrological models and their combinations vary with time and data magnitude, and undermine their application to flow simulations. However, previous studies have not quantified these uncertainties individually and explicitly. This study developed an ensemble-based dynamic Bayesian averaging approach (e-Bay) for deterministic discharge simulations using multiple global precipitation products and hydrological models. In this approach, the joint probability of precipitation products and hydrological models being correct is quantified based on uncertainties in maximum and mean estimation, posterior probability is quantified as functions of the magnitude and timing of discharges, and the law of total probability is implemented to calculate expected discharges. Six global fine-resolution precipitation products and two hydrological models of different complexities are included in an illustrative application. e-Bay can effectively quantify uncertainties and therefore generate better deterministic discharges than traditional approaches (weighted average methods with equal and varying weights and maximum likelihood approach). The mean Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of e-Bay are up to 0.97 and 0.85 in training and validation periods respectively, which are at least 0.06 and 0.13 higher than traditional approaches. In addition, with increased training data, assessment criteria values of e-Bay show smaller fluctuations than traditional approaches and its performance becomes outstanding. The proposed e-Bay approach bridges the gap between global precipitation products and their pragmatic applications to discharge simulations, and is beneficial to water resources management in ungauged or poorly gauged regions across the world.

  17. Category structure determines the relative attractiveness of global versus local averages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Tobias; Carr, Evan W; Davis, Tyler; Winkielman, Piotr

    2018-02-01

    Stimuli that capture the central tendency of presented exemplars are often preferred-a phenomenon also known as the classic beauty-in-averageness effect . However, recent studies have shown that this effect can reverse under certain conditions. We propose that a key variable for such ugliness-in-averageness effects is the category structure of the presented exemplars. When exemplars cluster into multiple subcategories, the global average should no longer reflect the underlying stimulus distributions, and will thereby become unattractive. In contrast, the subcategory averages (i.e., local averages) should better reflect the stimulus distributions, and become more attractive. In 3 studies, we presented participants with dot patterns belonging to 2 different subcategories. Importantly, across studies, we also manipulated the distinctiveness of the subcategories. We found that participants preferred the local averages over the global average when they first learned to classify the patterns into 2 different subcategories in a contrastive categorization paradigm (Experiment 1). Moreover, participants still preferred local averages when first classifying patterns into a single category (Experiment 2) or when not classifying patterns at all during incidental learning (Experiment 3), as long as the subcategories were sufficiently distinct. Finally, as a proof-of-concept, we mapped our empirical results onto predictions generated by a well-known computational model of category learning (the Generalized Context Model [GCM]). Overall, our findings emphasize the key role of categorization for understanding the nature of preferences, including any effects that emerge from stimulus averaging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Accounting for disagreements on average cone loss rates in retinitis pigmentosa with a new kinetic model: Its relevance for clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumgartner, W A; Baumgartner, A M

    2016-04-01

    Since 1985, at least nine studies of the average rate of cone loss in retinitis pigmentosa (RP) populations have yielded conflicting average rate constant values (-k), differing by 90-160%. This is surprising, since, except for the first two investigations, the Harvard or Johns Hopkins' protocols used in these studies were identical with respect to: use of the same exponential decline model, calculation of average -k from individual patient k values, monitoring patients over similarly large time frames, and excluding data exhibiting floor and ceiling effects. A detailed analysis of Harvard's and Hopkins' protocols and data revealed two subtle differences: (i) Hopkins' use of half-life t0.5 (or t(1/e)) for expressing patient cone-loss rates rather than k as used by Harvard; (ii) Harvard obtaining substantially more +k from improving fields due to dormant-cone recovery effects and "small -k" values than Hopkins' ("small -k" is defined as less than -0.040 year(-1)), e.g., 16% +k, 31% small -k, vs. Hopkins' 3% and 6% respectively. Since t0.5=0.693/k, it follows that when k=0, or is very small, t0.5 (or t(1/e)) is respectively infinity or a very large number. This unfortunate mathematical property (which also prevents t0.5 (t(1/e)) histogram construction corresponding to -k to +k) caused Hopkins' to delete all "small -k" and all +k due to "strong leverage". Naturally this contributed to Hopkins' larger average -k. Difference (ii) led us to re-evaluate the Harvard/Hopkins' exponential unchanging -k model. In its place we propose a model of increasing biochemical stresses from dying rods on cones during RP progression: increasing oxidative stresses and trophic factor deficiencies (e.g., RdCVF), and RPE malfunction. Our kinetic analysis showed rod loss to follow exponential kinetics with unchanging -k due to constant genetic stresses, thereby providing a theoretical basis for Clarke et al.'s empirical observation of such kinetics with eleven animal models of RP. In

  19. Determination of the diagnostic x-ray tube practical peak voltage (PPV) from average or average peak voltage measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourdakis, C J, E-mail: khour@gaec.gr [Ionizing Radiation Calibration Laboratory-Greek Atomic Energy Commission, PO Box 60092, 15310 Agia Paraskevi, Athens, Attiki (Greece)

    2011-04-07

    The practical peak voltage (PPV) has been adopted as the reference measuring quantity for the x-ray tube voltage. However, the majority of commercial kV-meter models measure the average peak, U-bar{sub P}, the average, U-bar, the effective, U{sub eff} or the maximum peak, U{sub P} tube voltage. This work proposed a method for determination of the PPV from measurements with a kV-meter that measures the average U-bar or the average peak, U-bar{sub p} voltage. The kV-meter reading can be converted to the PPV by applying appropriate calibration coefficients and conversion factors. The average peak k{sub PPV,kVp} and the average k{sub PPV,Uav} conversion factors were calculated from virtual voltage waveforms for conventional diagnostic radiology (50-150 kV) and mammography (22-35 kV) tube voltages and for voltage ripples from 0% to 100%. Regression equation and coefficients provide the appropriate conversion factors at any given tube voltage and ripple. The influence of voltage waveform irregularities, like 'spikes' and pulse amplitude variations, on the conversion factors was investigated and discussed. The proposed method and the conversion factors were tested using six commercial kV-meters at several x-ray units. The deviations between the reference and the calculated - according to the proposed method - PPV values were less than 2%. Practical aspects on the voltage ripple measurement were addressed and discussed. The proposed method provides a rigorous base to determine the PPV with kV-meters from U-bar{sub p} and U-bar measurement. Users can benefit, since all kV-meters, irrespective of their measuring quantity, can be used to determine the PPV, complying with the IEC standard requirements.

  20. Uncertainty calculation in transport models and forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzo, Stefano; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    Transport projects and policy evaluations are often based on transport model output, i.e. traffic flows and derived effects. However, literature has shown that there is often a considerable difference between forecasted and observed traffic flows. This difference causes misallocation of (public...... implemented by using an approach based on stochastic techniques (Monte Carlo simulation and Bootstrap re-sampling) or scenario analysis combined with model sensitivity tests. Two transport models are used as case studies: the Næstved model and the Danish National Transport Model. 3 The first paper...... in a four-stage transport model related to different variable distributions (to be used in a Monte Carlo simulation procedure), assignment procedures and levels of congestion, at both the link and the network level. The analysis used as case study the Næstved model, referring to the Danish town of Næstved2...

  1. SACALCCYL, Calculates the average solid angle subtended by a volume; SACALC2B, Calculates the average solid angle for source-detector geometries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitcher, Ralph

    2007-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: SACALC2B calculates the average solid angle subtended by a rectangular or circular detector window to a coaxial or non-coaxial rectangular, circular or point source, including where the source and detector planes are not parallel. SACALC C YL calculates the average solid angle subtended by a cylinder to a rectangular or circular source, plane or thick, at any location and orientation. This is needed, for example, in calculating the intrinsic gamma efficiency of a detector such as a GM tube. The program also calculates the number of hits on the cylinder side and on each end, and the average path length through the detector volume (assuming no scattering or absorption). Point sources can be modelled by using a circular source of zero radius. NEA-1688/03: Documentation has been updated (January 2006). 2 - Methods: The program uses a Monte Carlo method to calculate average solid angle for source-detector geometries that are difficult to analyse by analytical methods. The values of solid angle are calculated to accuracies of typically better than 0.1%. The calculated values from the Monte Carlo method agree closely with those produced by polygon approximation and numerical integration by Gardner and Verghese, and others. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The program models a circular or rectangular detector in planes that are not necessarily coaxial, nor parallel. Point sources can be modelled by using a circular source of zero radius. The sources are assumed to be uniformly distributed. NEA-1688/04: In SACALC C YL, to avoid rounding errors, differences less than 1 E-12 are assumed to be zero

  2. A statistical study of gyro-averaging effects in a reduced model of drift-wave transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Fonseca, J. D.; del-Castillo-Negrete, D.; Sokolov, I. M.; Caldas, I. L.

    2016-08-01

    A statistical study of finite Larmor radius (FLR) effects on transport driven by electrostatic drift-waves is presented. The study is based on a reduced discrete Hamiltonian dynamical system known as the gyro-averaged standard map (GSM). In this system, FLR effects are incorporated through the gyro-averaging of a simplified weak-turbulence model of electrostatic fluctuations. Formally, the GSM is a modified version of the standard map in which the perturbation amplitude, K0, becomes K0J0(ρ ̂ ) , where J0 is the zeroth-order Bessel function and ρ ̂ is the Larmor radius. Assuming a Maxwellian probability density function (pdf) for ρ ̂ , we compute analytically and numerically the pdf and the cumulative distribution function of the effective drift-wave perturbation amplitude K0J0(ρ ̂ ) . Using these results, we compute the probability of loss of confinement (i.e., global chaos), Pc, and the probability of trapping in the main drift-wave resonance, Pt. It is shown that Pc provides an upper bound for the escape rate, and that Pt provides a good estimate of the particle trapping rate. The analytical results are compared with direct numerical Monte-Carlo simulations of particle transport.

  3. Site-specific dissociation dynamics of H2/D2 on Ag(111) and Co(0001) and the validity of the site-averaging model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Xixi; Jiang, Bin; Xie, Daiqian; Guo, Hua

    2015-01-01

    Dissociative chemisorption of polyatomic molecules on metal surfaces involves high-dimensional dynamics, of which quantum mechanical treatments are computationally challenging. A promising reduced-dimensional approach approximates the full-dimensional dynamics by a weighted average of fixed-site results. To examine the performance of this site-averaging model, we investigate two distinct reactions, namely, hydrogen dissociation on Co(0001) and Ag(111), using accurate first principles potential energy surfaces (PESs). The former has a very low barrier of ∼0.05 eV while the latter is highly activated with a barrier of ∼1.15 eV. These two systems allow the investigation of not only site-specific dynamical behaviors but also the validity of the site-averaging model. It is found that the reactivity is not only controlled by the barrier height but also by the topography of the PES. Moreover, the agreement between the site-averaged and full-dimensional results is much better on Ag(111), though quantitative in neither system. Further quasi-classical trajectory calculations showed that the deviations can be attributed to dynamical steering effects, which are present in both reactions at all energies

  4. Scale-invariant Green-Kubo relation for time-averaged diffusivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Philipp; Barkai, Eli; Kantz, Holger

    2017-12-01

    In recent years it was shown both theoretically and experimentally that in certain systems exhibiting anomalous diffusion the time- and ensemble-averaged mean-squared displacement are remarkably different. The ensemble-averaged diffusivity is obtained from a scaling Green-Kubo relation, which connects the scale-invariant nonstationary velocity correlation function with the transport coefficient. Here we obtain the relation between time-averaged diffusivity, usually recorded in single-particle tracking experiments, and the underlying scale-invariant velocity correlation function. The time-averaged mean-squared displacement is given by 〈δ2¯〉 ˜2 DνtβΔν -β , where t is the total measurement time and Δ is the lag time. Here ν is the anomalous diffusion exponent obtained from ensemble-averaged measurements 〈x2〉 ˜tν , while β ≥-1 marks the growth or decline of the kinetic energy 〈v2〉 ˜tβ . Thus, we establish a connection between exponents that can be read off the asymptotic properties of the velocity correlation function and similarly for the transport constant Dν. We demonstrate our results with nonstationary scale-invariant stochastic and deterministic models, thereby highlighting that systems with equivalent behavior in the ensemble average can differ strongly in their time average. If the averaged kinetic energy is finite, β =0 , the time scaling of 〈δ2¯〉 and 〈x2〉 are identical; however, the time-averaged transport coefficient Dν is not identical to the corresponding ensemble-averaged diffusion constant.

  5. Predicting dissolution patterns in variable aperture fractures: 1. Development and evaluation of an enhanced depth-averaged computational model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Detwiler, R L; Rajaram, H

    2006-04-21

    Water-rock interactions within variable-aperture fractures can lead to dissolution of fracture surfaces and local alteration of fracture apertures, potentially transforming the transport properties of the fracture over time. Because fractures often provide dominant pathways for subsurface flow and transport, developing models that effectively quantify the role of dissolution on changing transport properties over a range of scales is critical to understanding potential impacts of natural and anthropogenic processes. Dissolution of fracture surfaces is controlled by surface-reaction kinetics and transport of reactants and products to and from the fracture surfaces. We present development and evaluation of a depth-averaged model of fracture flow and reactive transport that explicitly calculates local dissolution-induced alterations in fracture apertures. The model incorporates an effective mass transfer relationship that implicitly represents the transition from reaction-limited dissolution to transport-limited dissolution. We evaluate the model through direct comparison to previously reported physical experiments in transparent analog fractures fabricated by mating an inert, transparent rough surface with a smooth single crystal of potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP), which allowed direct measurement of fracture aperture during dissolution experiments using well-established light transmission techniques [Detwiler, et al., 2003]. Comparison of experiments and simulations at different flow rates demonstrate the relative impact of the dimensionless Peclet and Damkohler numbers on fracture dissolution and the ability of the computational model to simulate dissolution. Despite some discrepancies in the small-scale details of dissolution patterns, the simulations predict the evolution of large-scale features quite well for the different experimental conditions. This suggests that our depth-averaged approach to simulating fracture dissolution provides a useful approach for

  6. Wayside Bearing Fault Diagnosis Based on Envelope Analysis Paved with Time-Domain Interpolation Resampling and Weighted-Correlation-Coefficient-Guided Stochastic Resonance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongbin Liu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Envelope spectrum analysis is a simple, effective, and classic method for bearing fault identification. However, in the wayside acoustic health monitoring system, owing to the high relative moving speed between the railway vehicle and the wayside mounted microphone, the recorded signal is embedded with Doppler effect, which brings in shift and expansion of the bearing fault characteristic frequency (FCF. What is more, the background noise is relatively heavy, which makes it difficult to identify the FCF. To solve the two problems, this study introduces solutions for the wayside acoustic fault diagnosis of train bearing based on Doppler effect reduction using the improved time-domain interpolation resampling (TIR method and diagnosis-relevant information enhancement using Weighted-Correlation-Coefficient-Guided Stochastic Resonance (WCCSR method. First, the traditional TIR method is improved by incorporating the original method with kinematic parameter estimation based on time-frequency analysis and curve fitting. Based on the estimated parameters, the Doppler effect is removed using the TIR easily. Second, WCCSR is employed to enhance the diagnosis-relevant period signal component in the obtained Doppler-free signal. Finally, paved with the above two procedures, the local fault is identified using envelope spectrum analysis. Simulated and experimental cases have verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  7. Generalized Heteroskedasticity ACF for Moving Average Models in Explicit Forms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Khaled Safi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 The autocorrelation function (ACF measures the correlation between observations at different   distances apart. We derive explicit equations for generalized heteroskedasticity ACF for moving average of order q, MA(q. We consider two cases: Firstly: when the disturbance term follow the general covariance matrix structure Cov(wi, wj=S with si,j ¹ 0 " i¹j . Secondly: when the diagonal elements of S are not all identical but sij = 0 " i¹j, i.e. S=diag(s11, s22,…,stt. The forms of the explicit equations depend essentially on the moving average coefficients and covariance structure of the disturbance terms.   /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"جدول عادي"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;}

  8. The Value and Feasibility of Farming Differently Than the Local Average

    OpenAIRE

    Morris, Cooper; Dhuyvetter, Kevin; Yeager, Elizabeth A; Regier, Greg

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to quantify the value of being different than the local average and feasibility of distinguishing particular parts of an operation from the local average. Kansas crop farms are broken down by their farm characteristics, production practices, and management performances. An ordinary least squares regression model is used to quantify the value of having different than average characteristics, practices, and management performances. The degree farms have distingui...

  9. Characteristics of phase-averaged equations for modulated wave groups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klopman, G.; Petit, H.A.H.; Battjes, J.A.

    2000-01-01

    The project concerns the influence of long waves on coastal morphology. The modelling of the combined motion of the long waves and short waves in the horizontal plane is done by phase-averaging over the short wave motion and using intra-wave modelling for the long waves, see e.g. Roelvink (1993).

  10. Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Kissi

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics.

  11. Long-Term Prediction of Emergency Department Revenue and Visitor Volume Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chieh-Fan Chen

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed meteorological, clinical and economic factors in terms of their effects on monthly ED revenue and visitor volume. Monthly data from January 1, 2005 to September 30, 2009 were analyzed. Spearman correlation and cross-correlation analyses were performed to identify the correlation between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to quantify the relationship between each independent variable, ED revenue, and visitor volume. The accuracies were evaluated by comparing model forecasts to actual values with mean absolute percentage of error. Sensitivity of prediction errors to model training time was also evaluated. The ARIMA models indicated that mean maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, non-trauma, and trauma visits may correlate positively with ED revenue, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with ED revenue. Moreover, mean minimum temperature and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature, relative humidity and stock market index fluctuation may correlate positively with non-trauma visitor volume. Mean maximum temperature and relative humidity may correlate positively with pediatric visitor volume, but mean minimum temperature may correlate negatively with pediatric visitor volume. The model also performed well in forecasting revenue and visitor volume.

  12. Large interface simulation in an averaged two-fluid code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henriques, A.

    2006-01-01

    Different ranges of size of interfaces and eddies are involved in multiphase flow phenomena. Classical formalisms focus on a specific range of size. This study presents a Large Interface Simulation (LIS) two-fluid compressible formalism taking into account different sizes of interfaces. As in the single-phase Large Eddy Simulation, a filtering process is used to point out Large Interface (LI) simulation and Small interface (SI) modelization. The LI surface tension force is modelled adapting the well-known CSF method. The modelling of SI transfer terms is done calling for classical closure laws of the averaged approach. To simulate accurately LI transfer terms, we develop a LI recognition algorithm based on a dimensionless criterion. The LIS model is applied in a classical averaged two-fluid code. The LI transfer terms modelling and the LI recognition are validated on analytical and experimental tests. A square base basin excited by a horizontal periodic movement is studied with the LIS model. The capability of the model is also shown on the case of the break-up of a bubble in a turbulent liquid flow. The break-up of a large bubble at a grid impact performed regime transition between two different scales of interface from LI to SI and from PI to LI. (author) [fr

  13. Role of spatial averaging in multicellular gradient sensing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Tyler; Fancher, Sean; Levchenko, Andre; Nemenman, Ilya; Mugler, Andrew

    2016-05-20

    Gradient sensing underlies important biological processes including morphogenesis, polarization, and cell migration. The precision of gradient sensing increases with the length of a detector (a cell or group of cells) in the gradient direction, since a longer detector spans a larger range of concentration values. Intuition from studies of concentration sensing suggests that precision should also increase with detector length in the direction transverse to the gradient, since then spatial averaging should reduce the noise. However, here we show that, unlike for concentration sensing, the precision of gradient sensing decreases with transverse length for the simplest gradient sensing model, local excitation-global inhibition. The reason is that gradient sensing ultimately relies on a subtraction of measured concentration values. While spatial averaging indeed reduces the noise in these measurements, which increases precision, it also reduces the covariance between the measurements, which results in the net decrease in precision. We demonstrate how a recently introduced gradient sensing mechanism, regional excitation-global inhibition (REGI), overcomes this effect and recovers the benefit of transverse averaging. Using a REGI-based model, we compute the optimal two- and three-dimensional detector shapes, and argue that they are consistent with the shapes of naturally occurring gradient-sensing cell populations.

  14. Analysis of experimental data: The average shape of extreme wave forces on monopile foundations and the NewForce model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schløer, Signe; Bredmose, Henrik; Ghadirian, Amin

    2017-01-01

    Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values are co...... to the average shapes. For more nonlinear wave shapes, higher order terms has to be considered in order for the NewForce model to be able to predict the expected shapes.......Experiments with a stiff pile subjected to extreme wave forces typical of offshore wind farm storm conditions are considered. The exceedance probability curves of the nondimensional force peaks and crest heights are analysed. The average force time history normalised with their peak values...... are compared across the sea states. It is found that the force shapes show a clear similarity when grouped after the values of the normalised peak force, F/(ρghR2), normalised depth h/(gT2p) and presented in a normalised time scale t/Ta. For the largest force events, slamming can be seen as a distinct ‘hat...

  15. On Averaging Rotations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gramkow, Claus

    1999-01-01

    In this article two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very offten the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belo...... approximations to the Riemannian metric, and that the subsequent corrections are inherient in the least squares estimation. Keywords: averaging rotations, Riemannian metric, matrix, quaternion......In this article two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very offten the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong...

  16. A singularity theorem based on spatial averages

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    journal of. July 2007 physics pp. 31–47. A singularity theorem based on spatial ... In this paper I would like to present a result which confirms – at least partially – ... A detailed analysis of how the model fits in with the .... Further, the statement that the spatial average ...... Financial support under grants FIS2004-01626 and no.

  17. Average-energy games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Bouyer

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Two-player quantitative zero-sum games provide a natural framework to synthesize controllers with performance guarantees for reactive systems within an uncontrollable environment. Classical settings include mean-payoff games, where the objective is to optimize the long-run average gain per action, and energy games, where the system has to avoid running out of energy. We study average-energy games, where the goal is to optimize the long-run average of the accumulated energy. We show that this objective arises naturally in several applications, and that it yields interesting connections with previous concepts in the literature. We prove that deciding the winner in such games is in NP inter coNP and at least as hard as solving mean-payoff games, and we establish that memoryless strategies suffice to win. We also consider the case where the system has to minimize the average-energy while maintaining the accumulated energy within predefined bounds at all times: this corresponds to operating with a finite-capacity storage for energy. We give results for one-player and two-player games, and establish complexity bounds and memory requirements.

  18. Opensource Software for MLR-Modelling of Solar Collectors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Perers, Bengt

    2011-01-01

    A first research version is now in operation of a software package for multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling and analysis of solar collectors according to ideas originating all the way from Walletun et. al. (1986), Perers, (1987 and 1993). The tool has been implemented in the free and open...... source program R http://www.r-project.org/. Applications of the software package includes: visual validation, resampling and conversion of data, collector performance testing analysis according to the European Standard EN 12975 (Fischer et al., 2004), statistical validation of results...

  19. Adaptive radiotherapy with an average anatomy model: Evaluation and quantification of residual deformations in head and neck cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kranen, Simon van; Mencarelli, Angelo; Beek, Suzanne van; Rasch, Coen; Herk, Marcel van; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: To develop and validate an adaptive intervention strategy for radiotherapy of head-and-neck cancer that accounts for systematic deformations by modifying the planning-CT (pCT) to the average misalignments in daily cone beam CT (CBCT) measured with deformable registration (DR). Methods and materials: Daily CBCT scans (808 scans) for 25 patients were retrospectively registered to the pCT with B-spline DR. The average deformation vector field ( ) was used to deform the pCT for adaptive intervention. Two strategies were simulated: single intervention after 10 fractions and weekly intervention with an from the previous week. The model was geometrically validated with the residual misalignment of anatomical landmarks both on bony-anatomy (BA; automatically generated) and soft-tissue (ST; manually identified). Results: Systematic deformations were 2.5/3.4 mm vector length (BA/ST). Single intervention reduced deformations to 1.5/2.7 mm (BA/ST). Weekly intervention resulted in 1.0/2.2 mm (BA/ST) and accounted better for progressive changes. 15 patients had average systematic deformations >2 mm (BA): reductions were 1.1/1.9 mm (single/weekly BA). ST improvements were underestimated due to observer and registration variability. Conclusions: Adaptive intervention with a pCT modified to the average anatomy during treatment successfully reduces systematic deformations. The improved accuracy could possibly be exploited in margin reduction and/or dose escalation

  20. Average male and female virtual dummy model (BioRID and EvaRID) simulations with two seat concepts in the Euro NCAP low severity rear impact test configuration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Astrid; Holmqvist, Kristian; Svensson, Mats Y

    2018-05-01

    Soft tissue neck injuries, also referred to as whiplash injuries, which can lead to long term suffering accounts for more than 60% of the cost of all injuries leading to permanent medical impairment for the insurance companies, with respect to injuries sustained in vehicle crashes. These injuries are sustained in all impact directions, however they are most common in rear impacts. Injury statistics have since the mid-1960s consistently shown that females are subject to a higher risk of sustaining this type of injury than males, on average twice the risk of injury. Furthermore, some recently developed anti-whiplash systems have revealed they provide less protection for females than males. The protection of both males and females should be addresses equally when designing and evaluating vehicle safety systems to ensure maximum safety for everyone. This is currently not the case. The norm for crash test dummies representing humans in crash test laboratories is an average male. The female part of the population is not represented in tests performed by consumer information organisations such as NCAP or in regulatory tests due to the absence of a physical dummy representing an average female. Recently, the world first virtual model of an average female crash test dummy was developed. In this study, simulations were run with both this model and an average male dummy model, seated in a simplified model of a vehicle seat. The results of the simulations were compared to earlier published results from simulations run in the same test set-up with a vehicle concepts seat. The three crash pulse severities of the Euro NCAP low severity rear impact test were applied. The motion of the neck, head and upper torso were analysed in addition to the accelerations and the Neck Injury Criterion (NIC). Furthermore, the response of the virtual models was compared to the response of volunteers as well as the average male model, to that of the response of a physical dummy model. Simulations

  1. Averaging of nonlinearity-managed pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zharnitsky, Vadim; Pelinovsky, Dmitry

    2005-01-01

    We consider the nonlinear Schroedinger equation with the nonlinearity management which describes Bose-Einstein condensates under Feshbach resonance. By using an averaging theory, we derive the Hamiltonian averaged equation and compare it with other averaging methods developed for this problem. The averaged equation is used for analytical approximations of nonlinearity-managed solitons

  2. The Average Temporal and Spectral Evolution of Gamma-Ray Bursts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenimore, E.E.

    1999-01-01

    We have averaged bright BATSE bursts to uncover the average overall temporal and spectral evolution of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). We align the temporal structure of each burst by setting its duration to a standard duration, which we call T left-angleDurright-angle . The observed average open-quotes aligned T left-angleDurright-angle close quotes profile for 32 bright bursts with intermediate durations (16 - 40 s) has a sharp rise (within the first 20% of T left-angleDurright-angle ) and then a linear decay. Exponentials and power laws do not fit this decay. In particular, the power law seen in the X-ray afterglow (∝T -1.4 ) is not observed during the bursts, implying that the X-ray afterglow is not just an extension of the average temporal evolution seen during the gamma-ray phase. The average burst spectrum has a low-energy slope of -1.03, a high-energy slope of -3.31, and a peak in the νF ν distribution at 390 keV. We determine the average spectral evolution. Remarkably, it is also a linear function, with the peak of the νF ν distribution given by ∼680-600(T/T left-angleDurright-angle ) keV. Since both the temporal profile and the peak energy are linear functions, on average, the peak energy is linearly proportional to the intensity. This behavior is inconsistent with the external shock model. The observed temporal and spectral evolution is also inconsistent with that expected from variations in just a Lorentz factor. Previously, trends have been reported for GRB evolution, but our results are quantitative relationships that models should attempt to explain. copyright copyright 1999. The American Astronomical Society

  3. Global (volume-averaged) model of inductively coupled chlorine plasma : influence of Cl wall recombination and external heating on continuous and pulse-modulated plasmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemaneci, E.H.; Carbone, E.A.D.; Booth, J.P.; Graef, W.A.A.D.; Dijk, van J.; Kroesen, G.M.W.

    An inductively coupled radio-frequency plasma in chlorine is investigated via a global (volume-averaged) model, both in continuous and square wave modulated power input modes. After the power is switched off (in a pulsed mode) an ion–ion plasma appears. In order to model this phenomenon, a novel

  4. Instantaneous-to-daily GPP upscaling schemes based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model: correcting the overestimation of GPP by directly using daily average meteorological inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fumin; Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M; Black, T Andrew; Zhou, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Daily canopy photosynthesis is usually temporally upscaled from instantaneous (i.e., seconds) photosynthesis rate. The nonlinear response of photosynthesis to meteorological variables makes the temporal scaling a significant challenge. In this study, two temporal upscaling schemes of daily photosynthesis, the integrated daily model (IDM) and the segmented daily model (SDM), are presented by considering the diurnal variations of meteorological variables based on a coupled photosynthesis-stomatal conductance model. The two models, as well as a simple average daily model (SADM) with daily average meteorological inputs, were validated using the tower-derived gross primary production (GPP) to assess their abilities in simulating daily photosynthesis. The results showed IDM closely followed the seasonal trend of the tower-derived GPP with an average RMSE of 1.63 g C m(-2) day(-1), and an average Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (E) of 0.87. SDM performed similarly to IDM in GPP simulation but decreased the computation time by >66%. SADM overestimated daily GPP by about 15% during the growing season compared to IDM. Both IDM and SDM greatly decreased the overestimation by SADM, and improved the simulation of daily GPP by reducing the RMSE by 34 and 30%, respectively. The results indicated that IDM and SDM are useful temporal upscaling approaches, and both are superior to SADM in daily GPP simulation because they take into account the diurnally varying responses of photosynthesis to meteorological variables. SDM is computationally more efficient, and therefore more suitable for long-term and large-scale GPP simulations.

  5. Unscented Kalman filtering in the additive noise case

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The unscented Kalman filter(UKF) has four implementations in the additive noise case,according to whether the state is augmented with noise vectors and whether a new set of sigma points is redrawn from the predicted state(which is so-called resampling) for the observation prediction.This paper concerns the differences of performances for those implementations,such as accuracy,adaptability,computational complexity,etc.The conditionally equivalent relationships between the augmented and non-augmented unscented transforms(UTs) are proved for several sampling strategies that are commonly used.Then,we find that the augmented and non-augmented UKFs have the same filter results with the additive measurement noise,but only have the same state predictions with the additive process noise.Resampling is not believed to be necessary in some researches.However,we find out that resampling can be helpful for an adaptive Kalman gain.This will improve the convergence and accuracy of the filter when the large scale state modeling bias or unknown maneuvers occur.Finally,some universal designing principles for a practical UKF are given as follows:1) for the additive observation noise case,it’s better to use the non-augmented UKF;2) for the additive process noise case,when the small state modeling bias or maneuvers are involved,the non-resampling algorithms with state whether augmented or not are candidates for filters;3) the resampling and non-augmented algorithm is the only choice while the large state modeling bias or maneuvers are latent.

  6. Effect of tank geometry on its average performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlov, Aleksey A.; Tsimbalyuk, Alexandr F.; Malyugin, Roman V.; Leontieva, Daria A.; Kotelnikova, Alexandra A.

    2018-03-01

    The mathematical model of non-stationary filling of vertical submerged tanks with gaseous uranium hexafluoride is presented in the paper. There are calculations of the average productivity, heat exchange area, and filling time of various volumes tanks with smooth inner walls depending on their "height : radius" ratio as well as the average productivity, degree, and filling time of horizontal ribbing tank with volume 6.10-2 m3 with change central hole diameter of the ribs. It has been shown that the growth of "height / radius" ratio in tanks with smooth inner walls up to the limiting values allows significantly increasing tank average productivity and reducing its filling time. Growth of H/R ratio of tank with volume 1.0 m3 to the limiting values (in comparison with the standard tank having H/R equal 3.49) augments tank productivity by 23.5 % and the heat exchange area by 20%. Besides, we have demonstrated that maximum average productivity and a minimum filling time are reached for the tank with volume 6.10-2 m3 having central hole diameter of horizontal ribs 6.4.10-2 m.

  7. Global evaluation of runoff from 10 state-of-the-art hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. E. Beck

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Observed streamflow data from 966 medium sized catchments (1000–5000 km2 around the globe were used to comprehensively evaluate the daily runoff estimates (1979–2012 of six global hydrological models (GHMs and four land surface models (LSMs produced as part of tier-1 of the eartH2Observe project. The models were all driven by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI meteorological dataset, but used different datasets for non-meteorologic inputs and were run at various spatial and temporal resolutions, although all data were re-sampled to a common 0. 5° spatial and daily temporal resolution. For the evaluation, we used a broad range of performance metrics related to important aspects of the hydrograph. We found pronounced inter-model performance differences, underscoring the importance of hydrological model uncertainty in addition to climate input uncertainty, for example in studies assessing the hydrological impacts of climate change. The uncalibrated GHMs were found to perform, on average, better than the uncalibrated LSMs in snow-dominated regions, while the ensemble mean was found to perform only slightly worse than the best (calibrated model. The inclusion of less-accurate models did not appreciably degrade the ensemble performance. Overall, we argue that more effort should be devoted on calibrating and regionalizing the parameters of macro-scale models. We further found that, despite adjustments using gauge observations, the WFDEI precipitation data still contain substantial biases that propagate into the simulated runoff. The early bias in the spring snowmelt peak exhibited by most models is probably primarily due to the widespread precipitation underestimation at high northern latitudes.

  8. Validation of dispersion model of RTARC-DSS based on ''KIT'' field experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duran, J.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this study is to present the performance of the Gaussian dispersion model RTARC-DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) at the 'Kit' field experiments. The Model Validation Kit is a collection of three experimental data sets from Kincaid, Copenhagen, Lillestrom and supplementary Indianopolis experimental campaigns accompanied by software for model evaluation. The validation of the model has been performed on the basis of the maximum arc-wise concentrations using the Bootstrap resampling procedure the variation of the model residuals. Validation was performed for the short-range distances (about 1 - 10 km, maximum for Kincaid data set - 50 km from source). Model evaluation procedure and amount of relative over- or under-prediction are discussed and compared with the model. (author)

  9. Generalized Heteroskedasticity ACF for Moving Average Models in Explicit Forms

    OpenAIRE

    Samir Khaled Safi

    2014-01-01

    The autocorrelation function (ACF) measures the correlation between observations at different   distances apart. We derive explicit equations for generalized heteroskedasticity ACF for moving average of order q, MA(q). We consider two cases: Firstly: when the disturbance term follow the general covariance matrix structure Cov(wi, wj)=S with si,j ¹ 0 " i¹j . Secondly: when the diagonal elements of S are not all identical but sij = 0 " i¹j, i.e. S=diag(s11, s22,&hellip...

  10. The difference between alternative averages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Vaupel

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Demographers have long been interested in how compositional change, e.g., change in age structure, affects population averages. OBJECTIVE We want to deepen understanding of how compositional change affects population averages. RESULTS The difference between two averages of a variable, calculated using alternative weighting functions, equals the covariance between the variable and the ratio of the weighting functions, divided by the average of the ratio. We compare weighted and unweighted averages and also provide examples of use of the relationship in analyses of fertility and mortality. COMMENTS Other uses of covariances in formal demography are worth exploring.

  11. Self-averaging correlation functions in the mean field theory of spin glasses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mezard, M.; Parisi, G.

    1984-01-01

    In the infinite range spin glass model, we consider the staggered spin σsub(lambda)associated with a given eigenvector of the interaction matrix. We show that the thermal average of sub(lambda)sup(2) is a self-averaging quantity and we compute it

  12. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschi, M.; Stoeckli, S.; Dubrovsky, M.; Spirig, C.; Calanca, P.; Rotach, M. W.; Fischer, A. M.; Duffy, B.; Samietz, J.

    2012-02-01

    As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980-2009 and 2045-2074 time periods) climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora) are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045-2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern Switzerland (for most stations from roughly 1

  13. Comparison of a vertically-averaged and a vertically-resolved model for hyporheic flow beneath a pool-riffle bedform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Ahmad; Steffler, Peter; She, Yuntong

    2018-02-01

    The interaction between surface water and groundwater through the hyporheic zone is recognized to be important as it impacts the water quantity and quality in both flow systems. Three-dimensional (3D) modeling is the most complete representation of a real-world hyporheic zone. However, 3D modeling requires extreme computational power and efforts; the sophistication is often significantly compromised by not being able to obtain the required input data accurately. Simplifications are therefore often needed. The objective of this study was to assess the accuracy of the vertically-averaged approximation compared to a more complete vertically-resolved model of the hyporheic zone. The groundwater flow was modeled by either a simple one-dimensional (1D) Dupuit approach or a two-dimensional (2D) horizontal/vertical model in boundary fitted coordinates, with the latter considered as a reference model. Both groundwater models were coupled with a 1D surface water model via the surface water depth. Applying the two models to an idealized pool-riffle sequence showed that the 1D Dupuit approximation gave comparable results in determining the characteristics of the hyporheic zone to the reference model when the stratum thickness is not very large compared to the surface water depth. Conditions under which the 1D model can provide reliable estimate of the seepage discharge, upwelling/downwelling discharges and locations, the hyporheic flow, and the residence time were determined.

  14. Time averaging, ageing and delay analysis of financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherstvy, Andrey G.; Vinod, Deepak; Aghion, Erez; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; Metzler, Ralf

    2017-06-01

    We introduce three strategies for the analysis of financial time series based on time averaged observables. These comprise the time averaged mean squared displacement (MSD) as well as the ageing and delay time methods for varying fractions of the financial time series. We explore these concepts via statistical analysis of historic time series for several Dow Jones Industrial indices for the period from the 1960s to 2015. Remarkably, we discover a simple universal law for the delay time averaged MSD. The observed features of the financial time series dynamics agree well with our analytical results for the time averaged measurables for geometric Brownian motion, underlying the famed Black-Scholes-Merton model. The concepts we promote here are shown to be useful for financial data analysis and enable one to unveil new universal features of stock market dynamics.

  15. MOTION ARTIFACT REDUCTION IN FUNCTIONAL NEAR INFRARED SPECTROSCOPY SIGNALS BY AUTOREGRESSIVE MOVING AVERAGE MODELING BASED KALMAN FILTERING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MEHDI AMIAN

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS is a technique that is used for noninvasive measurement of the oxyhemoglobin (HbO2 and deoxyhemoglobin (HHb concentrations in the brain tissue. Since the ratio of the concentration of these two agents is correlated with the neuronal activity, fNIRS can be used for the monitoring and quantifying the cortical activity. The portability of fNIRS makes it a good candidate for studies involving subject's movement. The fNIRS measurements, however, are sensitive to artifacts generated by subject's head motion. This makes fNIRS signals less effective in such applications. In this paper, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA modeling of the fNIRS signal is proposed for state-space representation of the signal which is then fed to the Kalman filter for estimating the motionless signal from motion corrupted signal. Results are compared to the autoregressive model (AR based approach, which has been done previously, and show that the ARMA models outperform AR models. We attribute it to the richer structure, containing more terms indeed, of ARMA than AR. We show that the signal to noise ratio (SNR is about 2 dB higher for ARMA based method.

  16. Valuing structure, model uncertainty and model averaging in vector autoregressive processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractEconomic policy decisions are often informed by empirical analysis based on accurate econometric modeling. However, a decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, while an analyst must also be interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on

  17. 49 CFR 525.11 - Termination of exemption; amendment of alternative average fuel economy standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... average fuel economy standard. 525.11 Section 525.11 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to... EXEMPTIONS FROM AVERAGE FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS § 525.11 Termination of exemption; amendment of alternative average fuel economy standard. (a) Any exemption granted under this part for an affected model year does...

  18. TU-EF-304-04: A Heart Motion Model for Proton Scanned Beam Chest Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, B; Kiely, J Blanco; Lin, L; Freedman, G; Both, S; Vennarini, S; Santhanam, A; Low, D

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To model fast-moving heart surface motion as a function of cardiac-phase in order to compensate for the lack of cardiac-gating in evaluating accurate dose to coronary structures. Methods: Ten subjects were prospectively imaged with a breath-hold, cardiac-gated MRI protocol to determine heart surface motion. Radial and planar views of the heart were resampled into a 3-dimensional volume representing one heartbeat. A multi-resolution optical flow deformable image registration algorithm determined tissue displacement during the cardiac-cycle. The surface of the heart was modeled as a thin membrane comprised of voxels perpendicular to a pencil beam scanning (PBS) beam. The membrane’s out-of-plane spatial displacement was modeled as a harmonic function with Lame’s equations. Model accuracy was assessed with the root mean squared error (RMSE). The model was applied to a cohort of six chest wall irradiation patients with PBS plans generated on phase-sorted 4DCT. Respiratory motion was separated from the cardiac motion with a previously published technique. Volumetric dose painting was simulated and dose accumulated to validate plan robustness (target coverage variation accepted within 2%). Maximum and mean heart surface dose assessed the dosimetric impact of heart and coronary artery motion. Results: Average and maximum heart surface displacements were 2.54±0.35mm and 3.6mm from the end-diastole phase to the end-systole cardiac-phase respectively. An average RMSE of 0.11±0.04 showed the model to be accurate. Observed errors were greatest between the circumflex artery and mitral valve level of the heart anatomy. Heart surface displacements correspond to a 3.6±1.0% and 5.1±2.3% dosimetric impact on the maximum and mean heart surface DVH indicators respectively. Conclusion: Although heart surface motion parallel to beam’s direction was substantial, its maximum dosimetric impact was 5.1±2.3%. Since PBS delivers low doses to coronary structures relative to

  19. A Smoothing Algorithm for a New Two-Stage Stochastic Model of Supply Chain Based on Sample Average Approximation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We construct a new two-stage stochastic model of supply chain with multiple factories and distributors for perishable product. By introducing a second-order stochastic dominance (SSD constraint, we can describe the preference consistency of the risk taker while minimizing the expected cost of company. To solve this problem, we convert it into a one-stage stochastic model equivalently; then we use sample average approximation (SAA method to approximate the expected values of the underlying random functions. A smoothing approach is proposed with which we can get the global solution and avoid introducing new variables and constraints. Meanwhile, we investigate the convergence of an optimal value from solving the transformed model and show that, with probability approaching one at exponential rate, the optimal value converges to its counterpart as the sample size increases. Numerical results show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm and analysis.

  20. The phenotypic equilibrium of cancer cells: From average-level stability to path-wise convergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Yuanling; Wang, Yue; Zhou, Da

    2015-12-07

    The phenotypic equilibrium, i.e. heterogeneous population of cancer cells tending to a fixed equilibrium of phenotypic proportions, has received much attention in cancer biology very recently. In the previous literature, some theoretical models were used to predict the experimental phenomena of the phenotypic equilibrium, which were often explained by different concepts of stabilities of the models. Here we present a stochastic multi-phenotype branching model by integrating conventional cellular hierarchy with phenotypic plasticity mechanisms of cancer cells. Based on our model, it is shown that: (i) our model can serve as a framework to unify the previous models for the phenotypic equilibrium, and then harmonizes the different kinds of average-level stabilities proposed in these models; and (ii) path-wise convergence of our model provides a deeper understanding to the phenotypic equilibrium from stochastic point of view. That is, the emergence of the phenotypic equilibrium is rooted in the stochastic nature of (almost) every sample path, the average-level stability just follows from it by averaging stochastic samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Adaptive Spontaneous Transitions between Two Mechanisms of Numerical Averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezis, Noam; Bronfman, Zohar Z; Usher, Marius

    2015-06-04

    We investigated the mechanism with which humans estimate numerical averages. Participants were presented with 4, 8 or 16 (two-digit) numbers, serially and rapidly (2 numerals/second) and were instructed to convey the sequence average. As predicted by a dual, but not a single-component account, we found a non-monotonic influence of set-size on accuracy. Moreover, we observed a marked decrease in RT as set-size increases and RT-accuracy tradeoff in the 4-, but not in the 16-number condition. These results indicate that in accordance with the normative directive, participants spontaneously employ analytic/sequential thinking in the 4-number condition and intuitive/holistic thinking in the 16-number condition. When the presentation rate is extreme (10 items/sec) we find that, while performance still remains high, the estimations are now based on intuitive processing. The results are accounted for by a computational model postulating population-coding underlying intuitive-averaging and working-memory-mediated symbolic procedures underlying analytical-averaging, with flexible allocation between the two.

  2. Computation of the average energy for LXY electrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grau Carles, A.; Grau, A.

    1996-01-01

    The application of an atomic rearrangement model in which we only consider the three shells K, L and M, to compute the counting efficiency for electron capture nuclides, requires a fine averaged energy value for LMN electrons. In this report, we illustrate the procedure with two example, ''125 I and ''109 Cd. (Author) 4 refs

  3. Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large-Eddy Simulations of a Coaxial Supersonic Free-Jet Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, Robert A.; Edwards, Jack R.

    2010-01-01

    Reynolds-averaged and hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations have been applied to a supersonic coaxial jet flow experiment. The experiment was designed to study compressible mixing flow phenomenon under conditions that are representative of those encountered in scramjet combustors. The experiment utilized either helium or argon as the inner jet nozzle fluid, and the outer jet nozzle fluid consisted of laboratory air. The inner and outer nozzles were designed and operated to produce nearly pressure-matched Mach 1.8 flow conditions at the jet exit. The purpose of the computational effort was to assess the state-of-the-art for each modeling approach, and to use the hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations to gather insight into the deficiencies of the Reynolds-averaged closure models. The Reynolds-averaged simulations displayed a strong sensitivity to choice of turbulent Schmidt number. The initial value chosen for this parameter resulted in an over-prediction of the mixing layer spreading rate for the helium case, but the opposite trend was observed when argon was used as the injectant. A larger turbulent Schmidt number greatly improved the comparison of the results with measurements for the helium simulations, but variations in the Schmidt number did not improve the argon comparisons. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations also over-predicted the mixing layer spreading rate for the helium case, while under-predicting the rate of mixing when argon was used as the injectant. The primary reason conjectured for the discrepancy between the hybrid simulation results and the measurements centered around issues related to the transition from a Reynolds-averaged state to one with resolved turbulent content. Improvements to the inflow conditions were suggested as a remedy to this dilemma. Second-order turbulence statistics were also compared to their modeled Reynolds-averaged counterparts to evaluate the effectiveness of common turbulence closure

  4. Fluctuations of wavefunctions about their classical average

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benet, L; Flores, J; Hernandez-Saldana, H; Izrailev, F M; Leyvraz, F; Seligman, T H

    2003-01-01

    Quantum-classical correspondence for the average shape of eigenfunctions and the local spectral density of states are well-known facts. In this paper, the fluctuations of the quantum wavefunctions around the classical value are discussed. A simple random matrix model leads to a Gaussian distribution of the amplitudes whose width is determined by the classical shape of the eigenfunction. To compare this prediction with numerical calculations in chaotic models of coupled quartic oscillators, we develop a rescaling method for the components. The expectations are broadly confirmed, but deviations due to scars are observed. This effect is much reduced when both Hamiltonians have chaotic dynamics

  5. Moving average rules as a source of market instability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chiarella, C.; He, X.Z.; Hommes, C.H.

    2006-01-01

    Despite the pervasiveness of the efficient markets paradigm in the academic finance literature, the use of various moving average (MA) trading rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. This paper proposes a stochastic dynamic financial market model in which demand for traded assets

  6. Site-specific dissociation dynamics of H{sub 2}/D{sub 2} on Ag(111) and Co(0001) and the validity of the site-averaging model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Xixi [Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131 (United States); Institute of Theoretical and Computational Chemistry, Key Laboratory of Mesoscopic Chemistry, School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Jiang, Bin [Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131 (United States); Department of Chemical Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China); Xie, Daiqian, E-mail: dqxie@nju.edu.cn, E-mail: hguo@unm.edu [Institute of Theoretical and Computational Chemistry, Key Laboratory of Mesoscopic Chemistry, School of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093 (China); Synergetic Innovation Center of Quantum Information and Quantum Physics, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui 230026 (China); Guo, Hua, E-mail: dqxie@nju.edu.cn, E-mail: hguo@unm.edu [Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, New Mexico 87131 (United States)

    2015-09-21

    Dissociative chemisorption of polyatomic molecules on metal surfaces involves high-dimensional dynamics, of which quantum mechanical treatments are computationally challenging. A promising reduced-dimensional approach approximates the full-dimensional dynamics by a weighted average of fixed-site results. To examine the performance of this site-averaging model, we investigate two distinct reactions, namely, hydrogen dissociation on Co(0001) and Ag(111), using accurate first principles potential energy surfaces (PESs). The former has a very low barrier of ∼0.05 eV while the latter is highly activated with a barrier of ∼1.15 eV. These two systems allow the investigation of not only site-specific dynamical behaviors but also the validity of the site-averaging model. It is found that the reactivity is not only controlled by the barrier height but also by the topography of the PES. Moreover, the agreement between the site-averaged and full-dimensional results is much better on Ag(111), though quantitative in neither system. Further quasi-classical trajectory calculations showed that the deviations can be attributed to dynamical steering effects, which are present in both reactions at all energies.

  7. Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large-Eddy Simulations of a Co-Axial Supersonic Free-Jet Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baurle, R. A.; Edwards, J. R.

    2009-01-01

    Reynolds-averaged and hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations have been applied to a supersonic coaxial jet flow experiment. The experiment utilized either helium or argon as the inner jet nozzle fluid, and the outer jet nozzle fluid consisted of laboratory air. The inner and outer nozzles were designed and operated to produce nearly pressure-matched Mach 1.8 flow conditions at the jet exit. The purpose of the computational effort was to assess the state-of-the-art for each modeling approach, and to use the hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large-eddy simulations to gather insight into the deficiencies of the Reynolds-averaged closure models. The Reynolds-averaged simulations displayed a strong sensitivity to choice of turbulent Schmidt number. The baseline value chosen for this parameter resulted in an over-prediction of the mixing layer spreading rate for the helium case, but the opposite trend was noted when argon was used as the injectant. A larger turbulent Schmidt number greatly improved the comparison of the results with measurements for the helium simulations, but variations in the Schmidt number did not improve the argon comparisons. The hybrid simulation results showed the same trends as the baseline Reynolds-averaged predictions. The primary reason conjectured for the discrepancy between the hybrid simulation results and the measurements centered around issues related to the transition from a Reynolds-averaged state to one with resolved turbulent content. Improvements to the inflow conditions are suggested as a remedy to this dilemma. Comparisons between resolved second-order turbulence statistics and their modeled Reynolds-averaged counterparts were also performed.

  8. Towards Improving the Efficiency of Bayesian Model Averaging Analysis for Flow in Porous Media via the Probabilistic Collocation Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Xue

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The characterization of flow in subsurface porous media is associated with high uncertainty. To better quantify the uncertainty of groundwater systems, it is necessary to consider the model uncertainty. Multi-model uncertainty analysis can be performed in the Bayesian model averaging (BMA framework. However, the BMA analysis via Monte Carlo method is time consuming because it requires many forward model evaluations. A computationally efficient BMA analysis framework is proposed by using the probabilistic collocation method to construct a response surface model, where the log hydraulic conductivity field and hydraulic head are expanded into polynomials through Karhunen–Loeve and polynomial chaos methods. A synthetic test is designed to validate the proposed response surface analysis method. The results show that the posterior model weight and the key statistics in BMA framework can be accurately estimated. The relative errors of mean and total variance in the BMA analysis results are just approximately 0.013% and 1.18%, but the proposed method can be 16 times more computationally efficient than the traditional BMA method.

  9. Comparison of mass transport using average and transient rainfall boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duguid, J.O.; Reeves, M.

    1976-01-01

    A general two-dimensional model for simulation of saturated-unsaturated transport of radionuclides in ground water has been developed and is currently being tested. The model is being applied to study the transport of radionuclides from a waste-disposal site where field investigations are currently under way to obtain the necessary model parameters. A comparison of the amount of tritium transported is made using both average and transient rainfall boundary conditions. The simulations indicate that there is no substantial difference in the transport for the two conditions tested. However, the values of dispersivity used in the unsaturated zone caused more transport above the water table than has been observed under actual conditions. This deficiency should be corrected and further comparisons should be made before average rainfall boundary conditions are used for long-term transport simulations

  10. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  11. Modelling lidar volume-averaging and its significance to wind turbine wake measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer Forsting, A. R.; Troldborg, N.; Borraccino, A.

    2017-05-01

    Lidar velocity measurements need to be interpreted differently than conventional in-situ readings. A commonly ignored factor is “volume-averaging”, which refers to lidars not sampling in a single, distinct point but along its entire beam length. However, especially in regions with large velocity gradients, like the rotor wake, can it be detrimental. Hence, an efficient algorithm mimicking lidar flow sampling is presented, which considers both pulsed and continous-wave lidar weighting functions. The flow-field around a 2.3 MW turbine is simulated using Detached Eddy Simulation in combination with an actuator line to test the algorithm and investigate the potential impact of volume-averaging. Even with very few points discretising the lidar beam is volume-averaging captured accurately. The difference in a lidar compared to a point measurement is greatest at the wake edges and increases from 30% one rotor diameter (D) downstream of the rotor to 60% at 3D.

  12. Asymptotic and resampling strategies for assessing and comparing indirect effects in multiple mediator models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preacher, Kristopher J; Hayes, Andrew F

    2008-08-01

    Hypotheses involving mediation are common in the behavioral sciences. Mediation exists when a predictor affects a dependent variable indirectly through at least one intervening variable, or mediator. Methods to assess mediation involving multiple simultaneous mediators have received little attention in the methodological literature despite a clear need. We provide an overview of simple and multiple mediation and explore three approaches that can be used to investigate indirect processes, as well as methods for contrasting two or more mediators within a single model. We present an illustrative example, assessing and contrasting potential mediators of the relationship between the helpfulness of socialization agents and job satisfaction. We also provide SAS and SPSS macros, as well as Mplus and LISREL syntax, to facilitate the use of these methods in applications.

  13. Average Soil Water Retention Curves Measured by Neutron Radiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, Chu-Lin [ORNL; Perfect, Edmund [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Kang, Misun [ORNL; Voisin, Sophie [ORNL; Bilheux, Hassina Z [ORNL; Horita, Juske [Texas Tech University (TTU); Hussey, Dan [NIST Center for Neutron Research (NCRN), Gaithersburg, MD

    2011-01-01

    Water retention curves are essential for understanding the hydrologic behavior of partially-saturated porous media and modeling flow transport processes within the vadose zone. In this paper we report direct measurements of the main drying and wetting branches of the average water retention function obtained using 2-dimensional neutron radiography. Flint sand columns were saturated with water and then drained under quasi-equilibrium conditions using a hanging water column setup. Digital images (2048 x 2048 pixels) of the transmitted flux of neutrons were acquired at each imposed matric potential (~10-15 matric potential values per experiment) at the NCNR BT-2 neutron imaging beam line. Volumetric water contents were calculated on a pixel by pixel basis using Beer-Lambert s law after taking into account beam hardening and geometric corrections. To remove scattering effects at high water contents the volumetric water contents were normalized (to give relative saturations) by dividing the drying and wetting sequences of images by the images obtained at saturation and satiation, respectively. The resulting pixel values were then averaged and combined with information on the imposed basal matric potentials to give average water retention curves. The average relative saturations obtained by neutron radiography showed an approximate one-to-one relationship with the average values measured volumetrically using the hanging water column setup. There were no significant differences (at p < 0.05) between the parameters of the van Genuchten equation fitted to the average neutron radiography data and those estimated from replicated hanging water column data. Our results indicate that neutron imaging is a very effective tool for quantifying the average water retention curve.

  14. Averaged head phantoms from magnetic resonance images of Korean children and young adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Miran; Lee, Ae-Kyoung; Choi, Hyung-Do; Jung, Yong Wook; Park, Jin Seo

    2018-02-01

    Increased use of mobile phones raises concerns about the health risks of electromagnetic radiation. Phantom heads are routinely used for radiofrequency dosimetry simulations, and the purpose of this study was to construct averaged phantom heads for children and young adults. Using magnetic resonance images (MRI), sectioned cadaver images, and a hybrid approach, we initially built template phantoms representing 6-, 9-, 12-, 15-year-old children and young adults. Our subsequent approach revised the template phantoms using 29 averaged items that were identified by averaging the MRI data from 500 children and young adults. In females, the brain size and cranium thickness peaked in the early teens and then decreased. This is contrary to what was observed in males, where brain size and cranium thicknesses either plateaued or grew continuously. The overall shape of brains was spherical in children and became ellipsoidal by adulthood. In this study, we devised a method to build averaged phantom heads by constructing surface and voxel models. The surface model could be used for phantom manipulation, whereas the voxel model could be used for compliance test of specific absorption rate (SAR) for users of mobile phones or other electronic devices.

  15. An efficient computational method for global sensitivity analysis and its application to tree growth modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Qiong-Li; Cournède, Paul-Henry; Mathieu, Amélie

    2012-01-01

    Global sensitivity analysis has a key role to play in the design and parameterisation of functional–structural plant growth models which combine the description of plant structural development (organogenesis and geometry) and functional growth (biomass accumulation and allocation). We are particularly interested in this study in Sobol's method which decomposes the variance of the output of interest into terms due to individual parameters but also to interactions between parameters. Such information is crucial for systems with potentially high levels of non-linearity and interactions between processes, like plant growth. However, the computation of Sobol's indices relies on Monte Carlo sampling and re-sampling, whose costs can be very high, especially when model evaluation is also expensive, as for tree models. In this paper, we thus propose a new method to compute Sobol's indices inspired by Homma–Saltelli, which improves slightly their use of model evaluations, and then derive for this generic type of computational methods an estimator of the error estimation of sensitivity indices with respect to the sampling size. It allows the detailed control of the balance between accuracy and computing time. Numerical tests on a simple non-linear model are convincing and the method is finally applied to a functional–structural model of tree growth, GreenLab, whose particularity is the strong level of interaction between plant functioning and organogenesis. - Highlights: ► We study global sensitivity analysis in the context of functional–structural plant modelling. ► A new estimator based on Homma–Saltelli method is proposed to compute Sobol indices, based on a more balanced re-sampling strategy. ► The estimation accuracy of sensitivity indices for a class of Sobol's estimators can be controlled by error analysis. ► The proposed algorithm is implemented efficiently to compute Sobol indices for a complex tree growth model.

  16. How to average logarithmic retrievals?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Funke

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Calculation of mean trace gas contributions from profiles obtained by retrievals of the logarithm of the abundance rather than retrievals of the abundance itself are prone to biases. By means of a system simulator, biases of linear versus logarithmic averaging were evaluated for both maximum likelihood and maximum a priori retrievals, for various signal to noise ratios and atmospheric variabilities. These biases can easily reach ten percent or more. As a rule of thumb we found for maximum likelihood retrievals that linear averaging better represents the true mean value in cases of large local natural variability and high signal to noise ratios, while for small local natural variability logarithmic averaging often is superior. In the case of maximum a posteriori retrievals, the mean is dominated by the a priori information used in the retrievals and the method of averaging is of minor concern. For larger natural variabilities, the appropriateness of the one or the other method of averaging depends on the particular case because the various biasing mechanisms partly compensate in an unpredictable manner. This complication arises mainly because of the fact that in logarithmic retrievals the weight of the prior information depends on abundance of the gas itself. No simple rule was found on which kind of averaging is superior, and instead of suggesting simple recipes we cannot do much more than to create awareness of the traps related with averaging of mixing ratios obtained from logarithmic retrievals.

  17. Averaging processes in granular flows driven by gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossi, Giulia; Armanini, Aronne

    2016-04-01

    One of the more promising theoretical frames to analyse the two-phase granular flows is offered by the similarity of their rheology with the kinetic theory of gases [1]. Granular flows can be considered a macroscopic equivalent of the molecular case: the collisions among molecules are compared to the collisions among grains at a macroscopic scale [2,3]. However there are important statistical differences in dealing with the two applications. In the two-phase fluid mechanics, there are two main types of average: the phasic average and the mass weighed average [4]. The kinetic theories assume that the size of atoms is so small, that the number of molecules in a control volume is infinite. With this assumption, the concentration (number of particles n) doesn't change during the averaging process and the two definitions of average coincide. This hypothesis is no more true in granular flows: contrary to gases, the dimension of a single particle becomes comparable to that of the control volume. For this reason, in a single realization the number of grain is constant and the two averages coincide; on the contrary, for more than one realization, n is no more constant and the two types of average lead to different results. Therefore, the ensamble average used in the standard kinetic theory (which usually is the phasic average) is suitable for the single realization, but not for several realization, as already pointed out in [5,6]. In the literature, three main length scales have been identified [7]: the smallest is the particles size, the intermediate consists in the local averaging (in order to describe some instability phenomena or secondary circulation) and the largest arises from phenomena such as large eddies in turbulence. Our aim is to solve the intermediate scale, by applying the mass weighted average, when dealing with more than one realizations. This statistical approach leads to additional diffusive terms in the continuity equation: starting from experimental

  18. Source of non-arrhenius average relaxation time in glass-forming liquids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyre, Jeppe

    1998-01-01

    then discuss a recently proposed model according to which the activation energy of the average relaxation time is determined by the work done in shoving aside the surrounding liquid to create space needed for a "flow event". In this model, which is based on the fact that intermolecular interactions...

  19. FOREGROUND MODEL AND ANTENNA CALIBRATION ERRORS IN THE MEASUREMENT OF THE SKY-AVERAGED λ21 cm SIGNAL AT z∼ 20

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernardi, G. [SKA SA, 3rd Floor, The Park, Park Road, Pinelands, 7405 (South Africa); McQuinn, M. [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Greenhill, L. J., E-mail: gbernardi@ska.ac.za [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2015-01-20

    The most promising near-term observable of the cosmic dark age prior to widespread reionization (z ∼ 15-200) is the sky-averaged λ21 cm background arising from hydrogen in the intergalactic medium. Though an individual antenna could in principle detect the line signature, data analysis must separate foregrounds that are orders of magnitude brighter than the λ21 cm background (but that are anticipated to vary monotonically and gradually with frequency, e.g., they are considered {sup s}pectrally smooth{sup )}. Using more physically motivated models for foregrounds than in previous studies, we show that the intrinsic spectral smoothness of the foregrounds is likely not a concern, and that data analysis for an ideal antenna should be able to detect the λ21 cm signal after subtracting a ∼fifth-order polynomial in log ν. However, we find that the foreground signal is corrupted by the angular and frequency-dependent response of a real antenna. The frequency dependence complicates modeling of foregrounds commonly based on the assumption of spectral smoothness. Our calculations focus on the Large-aperture Experiment to detect the Dark Age, which combines both radiometric and interferometric measurements. We show that statistical uncertainty remaining after fitting antenna gain patterns to interferometric measurements is not anticipated to compromise extraction of the λ21 cm signal for a range of cosmological models after fitting a seventh-order polynomial to radiometric data. Our results generalize to most efforts to measure the sky-averaged spectrum.

  20. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bashahu, M.

    2003-01-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H d ) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K d and N/N d , Ne/8 or K t . Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  1. PERAMALAN DERET WAKTU MENGGUNAKAN MODEL FUNGSI BASIS RADIAL (RBF DAN AUTO REGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DT Wiyanti

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Salah satu metode peramalan yang paling dikembangkan saat ini adalah time series, yakni menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data masa lampau yang dijadikan acuan untuk peramalan masa depan. Berbagai penelitian telah mengusulkan metode-metode untuk menyelesaikan time series, di antaranya statistik, jaringan syaraf, wavelet, dan sistem fuzzy. Metode-metode tersebut memiliki kekurangan dan keunggulan yang berbeda. Namun permasalahan yang ada dalam dunia nyata merupakan masalah yang kompleks. Satu metode saja mungkin tidak mampu mengatasi masalah tersebut dengan baik. Dalam artikel ini dibahas penggabungan dua buah metode yaitu Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA dan Radial Basis Function (RBF. Alasan penggabungan kedua metode ini adalah karena adanya asumsi bahwa metode tunggal tidak dapat secara total mengidentifikasi semua karakteristik time series. Pada artikel ini dibahas peramalan terhadap data Indeks Harga Perdagangan Besar (IHPB dan data inflasi komoditi Indonesia; kedua data berada pada rentang tahun 2006 hingga beberapa bulan di tahun 2012. Kedua data tersebut masing-masing memiliki enam variabel. Hasil peramalan metode ARIMA-RBF dibandingkan dengan metode ARIMA dan metode RBF secara individual. Hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa dengan metode penggabungan ARIMA dan RBF, model yang diberikan memiliki hasil yang lebih akurat dibandingkan dengan penggunaan salah satu metode saja. Hal ini terlihat dalam visual plot, MAPE, dan RMSE dari semua variabel pada dua data uji coba. The accuracy of time series forecasting is the subject of many decision-making processes. Time series use a quantitative approach to employ data from the past to make forecast for the future. Many researches have proposed several methods to solve time series, such as using statistics, neural networks, wavelets, and fuzzy systems. These methods have different advantages and disadvantages. But often the problem in the real world is just too complex that a

  2. A Capital Mistake? The Neglected Effect of Immigration on Average Wages

    OpenAIRE

    Declan Trott

    2011-01-01

    Much recent literature on the wage effects of immigration assumes that the return to capital, and therefore the average wage, is unaffected in the long run. If immigration is modelled as a continuous flow rather than a one off shock, this result does not necessarily hold. A simple calibration with pre-crisis US immigration rates gives a reduction in average wages of 5%, larger than most estimates of its effect on relative wages.

  3. The effect of the behavior of an average consumer on the public debt dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Luca, Roberto; Di Mauro, Marco; Falzarano, Angelo; Naddeo, Adele

    2017-09-01

    An important issue within the present economic crisis is understanding the dynamics of the public debt of a given country, and how the behavior of average consumers and tax payers in that country affects it. Starting from a model of the average consumer behavior introduced earlier by the authors, we propose a simple model to quantitatively address this issue. The model is then studied and analytically solved under some reasonable simplifying assumptions. In this way we obtain a condition under which the public debt steadily decreases.

  4. On Averaging Rotations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gramkow, Claus

    2001-01-01

    In this paper two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very often the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong ...... approximations to the Riemannian metric, and that the subsequent corrections are inherent in the least squares estimation.......In this paper two common approaches to averaging rotations are compared to a more advanced approach based on a Riemannian metric. Very often the barycenter of the quaternions or matrices that represent the rotations are used as an estimate of the mean. These methods neglect that rotations belong...

  5. Study on characteristics of the aperture-averaging factor of atmospheric scintillation in terrestrial optical wireless communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Hong; Liu, Wen-xing; Zhou, Xue-yun; Zhou, Li-ling; Yu, Long-Kun

    2018-02-01

    In order to thoroughly understand the characteristics of the aperture-averaging effect of atmospheric scintillation in terrestrial optical wireless communication and provide references for engineering design and performance evaluation of the optics system employed in the atmosphere, we have theoretically deduced the generally analytic expression of the aperture-averaging factor of atmospheric scintillation, and numerically investigated characteristics of the apertureaveraging factor under different propagation conditions. The limitations of the current commonly used approximate calculation formula of aperture-averaging factor have been discussed, and the results showed that the current calculation formula is not applicable for the small receiving aperture under non-uniform turbulence link. Numerical calculation has showed that aperture-averaging factor of atmospheric scintillation presented an exponential decline model for the small receiving aperture under non-uniform turbulent link, and the general expression of the model was given. This model has certain guiding significance for evaluating the aperture-averaging effect in the terrestrial optical wireless communication.

  6. Calibrating the simple biosphere model for Amazonian tropical forest using field and remote sensing data. I - Average calibration with field data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellers, Piers J.; Shuttleworth, W. James; Dorman, Jeff L.; Dalcher, Amnon; Roberts, John M.

    1989-01-01

    Using meteorological and hydrological measurements taken in and above the central-Amazon-basin tropical forest, calibration of the Sellers et al. (1986) simple biosphere (SiB) model are described. The SiB model is a one-dimensional soil-vegetation-atmosphere model designed for use within GCMs models, representing the vegetation cover by analogy with processes operating within a single representative plant. The experimental systems and the procedures used to obtain field data are described, together with the specification of the physiological parameterization required to provide an average description of data. It was found that some of the existing literature on stomatal behavior for tropical species is inconsistent with the observed behavior of the complete canopy in Amazonia, and that the rainfall interception store of the canopy is considerably smaller than originally specified in the SiB model.

  7. Orthogonal projections and bootstrap resampling procedures in the study of infraspecific variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiza Carla Duarte

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available The effect of an increase in quantitative continuous characters resulting from indeterminate growth upon the analysis of population differentiation was investigated using, as an example, a set of continuous characters measured as distance variables in 10 populations of a rodent species. The data before and after correction for allometric size effects using orthogonal projections were analyzed with a parametric bootstrap resampling procedure applied to canonical variate analysis. The variance component of the distance measures attributable to indeterminate growth within the populations was found to be substantial, although the ordination of the populations was not affected, as evidenced by the relative and absolute positions of the centroids. The covariance pattern of the distance variables used to infer the nature of the morphological differences was strongly influenced by indeterminate growth. The uncorrected data produced a misleading picture of morphological differentiation by indicating that groups of populations differed in size. However, the data corrected for allometric effects clearly demonstrated that populations differed morphologically both in size and shape. These results are discussed in terms of the analysis of morphological differentiation among populations and the definition of infraspecific geographic units.A influência do aumento em caracteres quantitativos contínuos devido ao crescimento indeterminado sobre a análise de diferenciação entre populações foi investigado utilizando como exemplo um conjunto de dados de variáveis craniométricas em 10 populações de uma espécie de roedor. Dois conjuntos de dados, um não corrigido para o efeito alométrico do tamanho e um outro corrigido para o efeito alométrico do tamanho utilizando um método de projeção ortogonal, foram analisados por um procedimento "bootstrap" de reamostragem aplicado à análise de variáveis canônicas. O componente de variância devido ao

  8. Local and average structure of Mn- and La-substituted BiFeO3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Bo; Selbach, Sverre M.

    2017-06-01

    The local and average structure of solid solutions of the multiferroic perovskite BiFeO3 is investigated by synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) and electron density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The average experimental structure is determined by Rietveld refinement and the local structure by total scattering data analyzed in real space with the pair distribution function (PDF) method. With equal concentrations of La on the Bi site or Mn on the Fe site, La causes larger structural distortions than Mn. Structural models based on DFT relaxed geometry give an improved fit to experimental PDFs compared to models constrained by the space group symmetry. Berry phase calculations predict a higher ferroelectric polarization than the experimental literature values, reflecting that structural disorder is not captured in either average structure space group models or DFT calculations with artificial long range order imposed by periodic boundary conditions. Only by including point defects in a supercell, here Bi vacancies, can DFT calculations reproduce the literature results on the structure and ferroelectric polarization of Mn-substituted BiFeO3. The combination of local and average structure sensitive experimental methods with DFT calculations is useful for illuminating the structure-property-composition relationships in complex functional oxides with local structural distortions.

  9. Average current is better than peak current as therapeutic dosage for biphasic waveforms in a ventricular fibrillation pig model of cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bihua; Yu, Tao; Ristagno, Giuseppe; Quan, Weilun; Li, Yongqin

    2014-10-01

    Defibrillation current has been shown to be a clinically more relevant dosing unit than energy. However, the effects of average and peak current in determining shock outcome are still undetermined. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between average current, peak current and defibrillation success when different biphasic waveforms were employed. Ventricular fibrillation (VF) was electrically induced in 22 domestic male pigs. Animals were then randomized to receive defibrillation using one of two different biphasic waveforms. A grouped up-and-down defibrillation threshold-testing protocol was used to maintain the average success rate of 50% in the neighborhood. In 14 animals (Study A), defibrillations were accomplished with either biphasic truncated exponential (BTE) or rectilinear biphasic waveforms. In eight animals (Study B), shocks were delivered using two BTE waveforms that had identical peak current but different waveform durations. Both average and peak currents were associated with defibrillation success when BTE and rectilinear waveforms were investigated. However, when pathway impedance was less than 90Ω for the BTE waveform, bivariate correlation coefficient was 0.36 (p=0.001) for the average current, but only 0.21 (p=0.06) for the peak current in Study A. In Study B, a high defibrillation success (67.9% vs. 38.8%, pcurrent (14.9±2.1A vs. 13.5±1.7A, pcurrent unchanged. In this porcine model of VF, average current was better than peak current to be an adequate parameter to describe the therapeutic dosage when biphasic defibrillation waveforms were used. The institutional protocol number: P0805. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Lagrangian averaging with geodesic mean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Marcel

    2017-11-01

    This paper revisits the derivation of the Lagrangian averaged Euler (LAE), or Euler- α equations in the light of an intrinsic definition of the averaged flow map as the geodesic mean on the volume-preserving diffeomorphism group. Under the additional assumption that first-order fluctuations are statistically isotropic and transported by the mean flow as a vector field, averaging of the kinetic energy Lagrangian of an ideal fluid yields the LAE Lagrangian. The derivation presented here assumes a Euclidean spatial domain without boundaries.

  11. Ergodic averages for monotone functions using upper and lower dominating processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Mengersen, Kerrie

    We show how the mean of a monotone function (defined on a state space equipped with a partial ordering) can be estimated, using ergodic averages calculated from upper and lower dominating processes of a stationary irreducible Markov chain. In particular, we do not need to simulate the stationary...... Markov chain and we eliminate the problem of whether an appropriate burn-in is determined or not. Moreover, when a central limit theorem applies, we show how confidence intervals for the mean can be estimated by bounding the asymptotic variance of the ergodic average based on the equilibrium chain. Our...... methods are studied in detail for three models using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and we also discuss various types of other models for which our methods apply....

  12. Ergodic averages for monotone functions using upper and lower dominating processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2007-01-01

    We show how the mean of a monotone function (defined on a state space equipped with a partial ordering) can be estimated, using ergodic averages calculated from upper and lower dominating processes of a stationary irreducible Markov chain. In particular, we do not need to simulate the stationary...... Markov chain and we eliminate the problem of whether an appropriate burn-in is determined or not. Moreover, when a central limit theorem applies, we show how confidence intervals for the mean can be estimated by bounding the asymptotic variance of the ergodic average based on the equilibrium chain. Our...... methods are studied in detail for three models using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and we also discuss various types of other models for which our methods apply....

  13. Edgeworth expansion for the pre-averaging estimator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Podolskij, Mark; Veliyev, Bezirgen; Yoshida, Nakahiro

    In this paper, we study the Edgeworth expansion for a pre-averaging estimator of quadratic variation in the framework of continuous diffusion models observed with noise. More specifically, we obtain a second order expansion for the joint density of the estimators of quadratic variation and its...... asymptotic variance. Our approach is based on martingale embedding, Malliavin calculus and stable central limit theorems for continuous diffusions. Moreover, we derive the density expansion for the studentized statistic, which might be applied to construct asymptotic confidence regions....

  14. Modeling of frequency-domain scalar wave equation with the average-derivative optimal scheme based on a multigrid-preconditioned iterative solver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Jian; Chen, Jing-Bo; Dai, Meng-Xue

    2018-01-01

    An efficient finite-difference frequency-domain modeling of seismic wave propagation relies on the discrete schemes and appropriate solving methods. The average-derivative optimal scheme for the scalar wave modeling is advantageous in terms of the storage saving for the system of linear equations and the flexibility for arbitrary directional sampling intervals. However, using a LU-decomposition-based direct solver to solve its resulting system of linear equations is very costly for both memory and computational requirements. To address this issue, we consider establishing a multigrid-preconditioned BI-CGSTAB iterative solver fit for the average-derivative optimal scheme. The choice of preconditioning matrix and its corresponding multigrid components is made with the help of Fourier spectral analysis and local mode analysis, respectively, which is important for the convergence. Furthermore, we find that for the computation with unequal directional sampling interval, the anisotropic smoothing in the multigrid precondition may affect the convergence rate of this iterative solver. Successful numerical applications of this iterative solver for the homogenous and heterogeneous models in 2D and 3D are presented where the significant reduction of computer memory and the improvement of computational efficiency are demonstrated by comparison with the direct solver. In the numerical experiments, we also show that the unequal directional sampling interval will weaken the advantage of this multigrid-preconditioned iterative solver in the computing speed or, even worse, could reduce its accuracy in some cases, which implies the need for a reasonable control of directional sampling interval in the discretization.

  15. A power law global error model for the identification of differentially expressed genes in microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Granucci Francesca

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background High-density oligonucleotide microarray technology enables the discovery of genes that are transcriptionally modulated in different biological samples due to physiology, disease or intervention. Methods for the identification of these so-called "differentially expressed genes" (DEG would largely benefit from a deeper knowledge of the intrinsic measurement variability. Though it is clear that variance of repeated measures is highly dependent on the average expression level of a given gene, there is still a lack of consensus on how signal reproducibility is linked to signal intensity. The aim of this study was to empirically model the variance versus mean dependence in microarray data to improve the performance of existing methods for identifying DEG. Results In the present work we used data generated by our lab as well as publicly available data sets to show that dispersion of repeated measures depends on location of the measures themselves following a power law. This enables us to construct a power law global error model (PLGEM that is applicable to various Affymetrix GeneChip data sets. A new DEG identification method is therefore proposed, consisting of a statistic designed to make explicit use of model-derived measurement spread estimates and a resampling-based hypothesis testing algorithm. Conclusions The new method provides a control of the false positive rate, a good sensitivity vs. specificity trade-off and consistent results with varying number of replicates and even using single samples.

  16. The consequences of time averaging for measuring temporal species turnover in the fossil record

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomašových, Adam; Kidwell, Susan

    2010-05-01

    Modeling time averaging effects with simple simulations allows us to evaluate the magnitude of change in temporal species turnover that is expected to occur in long (paleoecological) time series with fossil assemblages. Distinguishing different modes of metacommunity dynamics (such as neutral, density-dependent, or trade-off dynamics) with time-averaged fossil assemblages requires scaling-up time-averaging effects because the decrease in temporal resolution and the decrease in temporal inter-sample separation (i.e., the two main effects of time averaging) substantially increase community stability relative to assemblages without or with weak time averaging. Large changes in temporal scale that cover centuries to millennia can lead to unprecedented effects on temporal rate of change in species composition. Temporal variation in species composition monotonically decreases with increasing duration of time-averaging in simulated fossil assemblages. Time averaging is also associated with the reduction of species dominance owing to the temporal switching in the identity of dominant species. High degrees of time averaging can cause that community parameters of local fossil assemblages converge to parameters of metacommunity rather that to parameters of individual local non-averaged communities. We find that the low variation in species composition observed among mollusk and ostracod subfossil assemblages can be explained by time averaging alone, and low temporal resolution and reduced temporal separation among assemblages in time series can thus explain a substantial part of the reduced variation in species composition relative to unscaled predictions of neutral model (i.e., species do not differ in birth, death, and immigration rates on per capita basis). The structure of time-averaged assemblages can thus provide important insights into processes that act over larger temporal scales, such as evolution of niches and dispersal, range-limit dynamics, taxon cycles, and

  17. Effects of average degree of network on an order–disorder transition in opinion dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cun-Fang, Feng; Jian-Yue, Guan; Ying-Hai, Wang; Zhi-Xi, Wu

    2010-01-01

    We have investigated the influence of the average degree (k) of network on the location of an order-disorder transition in opinion dynamics. For this purpose, a variant of majority rule (VMR) model is applied to Watts–Strogatz (WS) small-world networks and Barabási–Albert (BA) scale-free networks which may describe some non-trivial properties of social systems. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we find that the order–disorder transition point of the VMR model is greatly affected by the average degree (k) of the networks; a larger value of (k) results in a more ordered state of the system. Comparing WS networks with BA networks, we find WS networks have better orderliness than BA networks when the average degree (k) is small. With the increase of (k), BA networks have a more ordered state. By implementing finite-size scaling analysis, we also obtain critical exponents β/ν, γ/ν and 1/ν for several values of average degree (k). Our results may be helpful to understand structural effects on order–disorder phase transition in the context of the majority rule model. (general)

  18. Statistical inference, the bootstrap, and neural-network modeling with application to foreign exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, H; Racine, J

    2001-01-01

    We propose tests for individual and joint irrelevance of network inputs. Such tests can be used to determine whether an input or group of inputs "belong" in a particular model, thus permitting valid statistical inference based on estimated feedforward neural-network models. The approaches employ well-known statistical resampling techniques. We conduct a small Monte Carlo experiment showing that our tests have reasonable level and power behavior, and we apply our methods to examine whether there are predictable regularities in foreign exchange rates. We find that exchange rates do appear to contain information that is exploitable for enhanced point prediction, but the nature of the predictive relations evolves through time.

  19. Spacetime averaging of exotic singularity universes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dabrowski, Mariusz P.

    2011-01-01

    Taking a spacetime average as a measure of the strength of singularities we show that big-rips (type I) are stronger than big-bangs. The former have infinite spacetime averages while the latter have them equal to zero. The sudden future singularities (type II) and w-singularities (type V) have finite spacetime averages. The finite scale factor (type III) singularities for some values of the parameters may have an infinite average and in that sense they may be considered stronger than big-bangs.

  20. Performance of Optimally Merged Multisatellite Precipitation Products Using the Dynamic Bayesian Model Averaging Scheme Over the Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yingzhao; Hong, Yang; Chen, Yang; Yang, Yuan; Tang, Guoqiang; Yao, Yunjun; Long, Di; Li, Changmin; Han, Zhongying; Liu, Ronghua

    2018-01-01

    Accurate estimation of precipitation from satellites at high spatiotemporal scales over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) remains a challenge. In this study, we proposed a general framework for blending multiple satellite precipitation data using the dynamic Bayesian model averaging (BMA) algorithm. The blended experiment was performed at a daily 0.25° grid scale for 2007-2012 among Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42RT and 3B42V7, Climate Prediction Center MORPHing technique (CMORPH), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). First, the BMA weights were optimized using the expectation-maximization (EM) method for each member on each day at 200 calibrated sites and then interpolated to the entire plateau using the ordinary kriging (OK) approach. Thus, the merging data were produced by weighted sums of the individuals over the plateau. The dynamic BMA approach showed better performance with a smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 6.77 mm/day, higher correlation coefficient of 0.592, and closer Euclid value of 0.833, compared to the individuals at 15 validated sites. Moreover, BMA has proven to be more robust in terms of seasonality, topography, and other parameters than traditional ensemble methods including simple model averaging (SMA) and one-outlier removed (OOR). Error analysis between BMA and the state-of-the-art IMERG in the summer of 2014 further proved that the performance of BMA was superior with respect to multisatellite precipitation data merging. This study demonstrates that BMA provides a new solution for blending multiple satellite data in regions with limited gauges.

  1. The average inter-crossing number of equilateral random walks and polygons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diao, Y; Dobay, A; Stasiak, A

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we study the average inter-crossing number between two random walks and two random polygons in the three-dimensional space. The random walks and polygons in this paper are the so-called equilateral random walks and polygons in which each segment of the walk or polygon is of unit length. We show that the mean average inter-crossing number ICN between two equilateral random walks of the same length n is approximately linear in terms of n and we were able to determine the prefactor of the linear term, which is a = 3ln2/8 ∼ 0.2599. In the case of two random polygons of length n, the mean average inter-crossing number ICN is also linear, but the prefactor of the linear term is different from that of the random walks. These approximations apply when the starting points of the random walks and polygons are of a distance ρ apart and ρ is small compared to n. We propose a fitting model that would capture the theoretical asymptotic behaviour of the mean average ICN for large values of ρ. Our simulation result shows that the model in fact works very well for the entire range of ρ. We also study the mean ICN between two equilateral random walks and polygons of different lengths. An interesting result is that even if one random walk (polygon) has a fixed length, the mean average ICN between the two random walks (polygons) would still approach infinity if the length of the other random walk (polygon) approached infinity. The data provided by our simulations match our theoretical predictions very well

  2. Statistical comparison of models for estimating the monthly average daily diffuse radiation at a subtropical African site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bashahu, M. [University of Burundi, Bujumbura (Burundi). Institute of Applied Pedagogy, Department of Physics and Technology

    2003-07-01

    Nine correlations have been developed in this paper to estimate the monthly average diffuse radiation for Dakar, Senegal. A 16-year period data on the global (H) and diffuse (H{sub d}) radiation, together with data on the bright sunshine hours (N), the fraction of the sky's (Ne/8), the water vapour pressure in the air (e) and the ambient temperature (T) have been used for that purpose. A model inter-comparison based on the MBE, RMSE and t statistical tests has shown that estimates in any of the obtained correlations are not significantly different from their measured counterparts, thus all the nine models are recommended for the aforesaid location. Three of them should be particularly selected for their simplicity, universal applicability and high accuracy. Those are simple linear correlations between K{sub d} and N/N{sub d}, Ne/8 or K{sub t}. Even presenting adequate performance, the remaining correlations are either simple but less accurate, or multiple or nonlinear regressions needing one or two input variables. (author)

  3. Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verdin, Kristine L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States). Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Lab. (INEEL)

    2004-05-01

    This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from the EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.

  4. Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest and disease modeling in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hirschi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available As a consequence of current and projected climate change in temperate regions of Europe, agricultural pests and diseases are expected to occur more frequently and possibly to extend to previously non-affected regions. Given their economic and ecological relevance, detailed forecasting tools for various pests and diseases have been developed, which model their phenology, depending on actual weather conditions, and suggest management decisions on that basis. Assessing the future risk of pest-related damages requires future weather data at high temporal and spatial resolution. Here, we use a combined stochastic weather generator and re-sampling procedure for producing site-specific hourly weather series representing present and future (1980–2009 and 2045–2074 time periods climate conditions in Switzerland. The climate change scenarios originate from the ENSEMBLES multi-model projections and provide probabilistic information on future regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Hourly weather series are produced by first generating daily weather data for these climate scenarios and then using a nearest neighbor re-sampling approach for creating realistic diurnal cycles. These hourly weather series are then used for modeling the impact of climate change on important life phases of the codling moth and on the number of predicted infection days of fire blight. Codling moth (Cydia pomonella and fire blight (Erwinia amylovora are two major pest and disease threats to apple, one of the most important commercial and rural crops across Europe. Results for the codling moth indicate a shift in the occurrence and duration of life phases relevant for pest control. In southern Switzerland, a 3rd generation per season occurs only very rarely under today's climate conditions but is projected to become normal in the 2045–2074 time period. While the potential risk for a 3rd generation is also significantly increasing in northern

  5. Online Self-Organizing Network Control with Time Averaged Weighted Throughput Objective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhicong Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We study an online multisource multisink queueing network control problem characterized with self-organizing network structure and self-organizing job routing. We decompose the self-organizing queueing network control problem into a series of interrelated Markov Decision Processes and construct a control decision model for them based on the coupled reinforcement learning (RL architecture. To maximize the mean time averaged weighted throughput of the jobs through the network, we propose a reinforcement learning algorithm with time averaged reward to deal with the control decision model and obtain a control policy integrating the jobs routing selection strategy and the jobs sequencing strategy. Computational experiments verify the learning ability and the effectiveness of the proposed reinforcement learning algorithm applied in the investigated self-organizing network control problem.

  6. Partial Averaged Navier-Stokes approach for cavitating flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, L; Zhang, Y N

    2015-01-01

    Partial Averaged Navier Stokes (PANS) is a numerical approach developed for studying practical engineering problems (e.g. cavitating flow inside hydroturbines) with a resonance cost and accuracy. One of the advantages of PANS is that it is suitable for any filter width, leading a bridging method from traditional Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) to direct numerical simulations by choosing appropriate parameters. Comparing with RANS, the PANS model will inherit many physical nature from parent RANS but further resolve more scales of motion in great details, leading to PANS superior to RANS. As an important step for PANS approach, one need to identify appropriate physical filter-width control parameters e.g. ratios of unresolved-to-total kinetic energy and dissipation. In present paper, recent studies of cavitating flow based on PANS approach are introduced with a focus on the influences of filter-width control parameters on the simulation results

  7. The average number of partons per clan in rapidity intervals in parton showers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giovannini, A. [Turin Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica Teorica; Lupia, S. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Physik, Muenchen (Germany). Werner-Heisenberg-Institut; Ugoccioni, R. [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Theoretical Physics

    1996-04-01

    The dependence of the average number of partons per clan on virtuality and rapidity variables is analytically predicted in the framework of the Generalized Simplified Parton Shower model, based on the idea that clans are genuine elementary subprocesses. The obtained results are found to be qualitatively consistent with experimental trends. This study extends previous results on the behavior of the average number of clans in virtuality and rapidity and shows how important physical quantities can be calculated analytically in a model based on essentials of QCD allowing local violations of the energy-momentum conservation law, still requiring its global validity. (orig.)

  8. The average number of partons per clan in rapidity intervals in parton showers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giovannini, A.; Lupia, S.; Ugoccioni, R.

    1996-01-01

    The dependence of the average number of partons per clan on virtuality and rapidity variables is analytically predicted in the framework of the Generalized Simplified Parton Shower model, based on the idea that clans are genuine elementary subprocesses. The obtained results are found to be qualitatively consistent with experimental trends. This study extends previous results on the behavior of the average number of clans in virtuality and rapidity and shows how important physical quantities can be calculated analytically in a model based on essentials of QCD allowing local violations of the energy-momentum conservation law, still requiring its global validity. (orig.)

  9. Studies concerning average volume flow and waterpacking anomalies in thermal-hydraulics codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyczkowski, R.W.; Ching, J.T.; Mecham, D.C.

    1977-01-01

    One-dimensional hydrodynamic codes have been observed to exhibit anomalous behavior in the form of non-physical pressure oscillations and spikes. It is our experience that sometimes this anomaloous behavior can result in mass depletion, steam table failure and in severe cases, problem abortion. In addition, these non-physical pressure spikes can result in long running times when small time steps are needed in an attempt to cope with anomalous solution behavior. The source of these pressure spikes has been conjectured to be caused by nonuniform enthalpy distribution or wave reflection off the closed end of a pipe or abrupt changes in pressure history when the fluid changes from subcooled to two-phase conditions. It is demonstrated in this paper that many of the faults can be attributed to inadequate modeling of the average volume flow and the sharp fluid density front crossing a junction. General corrective models are difficult to devise since the causes of the problems touch on the very theoretical bases of the differential field equations and associated solution scheme. For example, the fluid homogeneity assumption and the numerical extrapolation scheme have placed severe restrictions on the capability of a code to adequately model certain physical phenomena involving fluid discontinuities. The need for accurate junction and local properties to describe phenomena internal to a control volume often points to additional lengthy computations that are difficult to justify in terms of computational efficiency. Corrective models that are economical to implement and use are developed. When incorporated into the one-dimensional, homogeneous transient thermal-hydraulic analysis computer code, RELAP4, they help mitigate many of the code's difficulties related to average volume flow and water-packing anomalies. An average volume flow model and a critical density model are presented. Computational improvements due to these models are also demonstrated

  10. Distributional changes and range predictions of downy brome (Bromus tectorum) in Rocky Mountain National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bromberg, J.E.; Kumar, S.; Brown, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

    2011-01-01

    Downy brome (Bromus tectorum L.), an invasive winter annual grass, may be increasing in extent and abundance at high elevations in the western United States. This would pose a great threat to high-elevation plant communities and resources. However, data to track this species in high-elevation environments are limited. To address changes in the distribution and abundance of downy brome and the factors most associated with its occurrence, we used field sampling and statistical methods, and niche modeling. In 2007, we resampled plots from two vegetation surveys in Rocky Mountain National Park for presence and cover of downy brome. One survey was established in 1993 and had been resampled in 1999. The other survey was established in 1996 and had not been resampled until our study. Although not all comparisons between years demonstrated significant changes in downy brome abundance, its mean cover increased nearly fivefold from 1993 (0.7%) to 2007 (3.6%) in one of the two vegetation surveys (P = 0.06). Although the average cover of downy brome within the second survey appeared to be increasing from 1996 to 2007, this slight change from 0.5% to 1.2% was not statistically significant (P = 0.24). Downy brome was present in 50% more plots in 1999 than in 1993 (P = 0.02) in the first survey. In the second survey, downy brome was present in 30% more plots in 2007 than in 1996 (P = 0.08). Maxent, a species-environmental matching model, was generally able to predict occurrences of downy brome, as new locations were in the ranges predicted by earlier generated models. The model found that distance to roads, elevation, and vegetation community influenced the predictions most. The strong response of downy brome to interannual environmental variability makes detecting change challenging, especially with small sample sizes. However, our results suggest that the area in which downy brome occurs is likely increasing in Rocky Mountain National Park through increased frequency and cover

  11. Deblurring of class-averaged images in single-particle electron microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Wooram; Chirikjian, Gregory S; Madden, Dean R; Rockmore, Daniel N

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a method for the deblurring of class-averaged images in single-particle electron microscopy (EM). Since EM images of biological samples are very noisy, the images which are nominally identical projection images are often grouped, aligned and averaged in order to cancel or reduce the background noise. However, the noise in the individual EM images generates errors in the alignment process, which creates an inherent limit on the accuracy of the resulting class averages. This inaccurate class average due to the alignment errors can be viewed as the result of a convolution of an underlying clear image with a blurring function. In this work, we develop a deconvolution method that gives an estimate for the underlying clear image from a blurred class-averaged image using precomputed statistics of misalignment. Since this convolution is over the group of rigid-body motions of the plane, SE(2), we use the Fourier transform for SE(2) in order to convert the convolution into a matrix multiplication in the corresponding Fourier space. For practical implementation we use a Hermite-function-based image modeling technique, because Hermite expansions enable lossless Cartesian-polar coordinate conversion using the Laguerre–Fourier expansions, and Hermite expansion and Laguerre–Fourier expansion retain their structures under the Fourier transform. Based on these mathematical properties, we can obtain the deconvolution of the blurred class average using simple matrix multiplication. Tests of the proposed deconvolution method using synthetic and experimental EM images confirm the performance of our method

  12. Characteristic function-based semiparametric inference for skew-symmetric models

    KAUST Repository

    Potgieter, Cornelis J.; Genton, Marc G.

    2012-01-01

    testing. Two tests for a hypothesis of specific parameter values are considered, as well as a test for the hypothesis that the symmetric component has a specific parametric form. A resampling algorithm is described for practical implementation

  13. The definition and computation of average neutron lifetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henry, A.F.

    1983-01-01

    A precise physical definition is offered for a class of average lifetimes for neutrons in an assembly of materials, either multiplying or not, or if the former, critical or not. A compact theoretical expression for the general member of this class is derived in terms of solutions to the transport equation. Three specific definitions are considered. Particular exact expressions for these are derived and reduced to simple algebraic formulas for one-group and two-group homogeneous bare-core models

  14. Review of the different methods to derive average spacing from resolved resonance parameters sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fort, E.; Derrien, H.; Lafond, D.

    1979-12-01

    The average spacing of resonances is an important parameter for statistical model calculations, especially concerning non fissile nuclei. The different methods to derive this average value from resonance parameters sets have been reviewed and analyzed in order to tentatively detect their respective weaknesses and propose recommendations. Possible improvements are suggested

  15. Linear versus Nonlinear Filtering with Scale-Selective Corrections for Balanced Dynamics in a Simple Atmospheric Model

    KAUST Repository

    Subramanian, Aneesh C.

    2012-11-01

    This paper investigates the role of the linear analysis step of the ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) in disrupting the balanced dynamics in a simple atmospheric model and compares it to a fully nonlinear particle-based filter (PF). The filters have a very similar forecast step but the analysis step of the PF solves the full Bayesian filtering problem while the EnKF analysis only applies to Gaussian distributions. The EnKF is compared to two flavors of the particle filter with different sampling strategies, the sequential importance resampling filter (SIRF) and the sequential kernel resampling filter (SKRF). The model admits a chaotic vortical mode coupled to a comparatively fast gravity wave mode. It can also be configured either to evolve on a so-called slow manifold, where the fast motion is suppressed, or such that the fast-varying variables are diagnosed from the slow-varying variables as slaved modes. Identical twin experiments show that EnKF and PF capture the variables on the slow manifold well as the dynamics is very stable. PFs, especially the SKRF, capture slaved modes better than the EnKF, implying that a full Bayesian analysis estimates the nonlinear model variables better. The PFs perform significantly better in the fully coupled nonlinear model where fast and slow variables modulate each other. This suggests that the analysis step in the PFs maintains the balance in both variables much better than the EnKF. It is also shown that increasing the ensemble size generally improves the performance of the PFs but has less impact on the EnKF after a sufficient number of members have been used.

  16. Linear versus Nonlinear Filtering with Scale-Selective Corrections for Balanced Dynamics in a Simple Atmospheric Model

    KAUST Repository

    Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Cornuelle, Bruce; Miller, Arthur J.; Song, Hajoon

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of the linear analysis step of the ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) in disrupting the balanced dynamics in a simple atmospheric model and compares it to a fully nonlinear particle-based filter (PF). The filters have a very similar forecast step but the analysis step of the PF solves the full Bayesian filtering problem while the EnKF analysis only applies to Gaussian distributions. The EnKF is compared to two flavors of the particle filter with different sampling strategies, the sequential importance resampling filter (SIRF) and the sequential kernel resampling filter (SKRF). The model admits a chaotic vortical mode coupled to a comparatively fast gravity wave mode. It can also be configured either to evolve on a so-called slow manifold, where the fast motion is suppressed, or such that the fast-varying variables are diagnosed from the slow-varying variables as slaved modes. Identical twin experiments show that EnKF and PF capture the variables on the slow manifold well as the dynamics is very stable. PFs, especially the SKRF, capture slaved modes better than the EnKF, implying that a full Bayesian analysis estimates the nonlinear model variables better. The PFs perform significantly better in the fully coupled nonlinear model where fast and slow variables modulate each other. This suggests that the analysis step in the PFs maintains the balance in both variables much better than the EnKF. It is also shown that increasing the ensemble size generally improves the performance of the PFs but has less impact on the EnKF after a sufficient number of members have been used.

  17. A Divergence Median-based Geometric Detector with A Weighted Averaging Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, Xiaoqiang; Cheng, Yongqiang; Li, Yubo; Wang, Hongqiang; Qin, Yuliang

    2018-01-01

    To overcome the performance degradation of the classical fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based constant false alarm rate detector with the limited sample data, a divergence median-based geometric detector on the Riemannian manifold of Heimitian positive definite matrices is proposed in this paper. In particular, an autocorrelation matrix is used to model the correlation of sample data. This method of the modeling can avoid the poor Doppler resolution as well as the energy spread of the Doppler filter banks result from the FFT. Moreover, a weighted averaging filter, conceived from the philosophy of the bilateral filtering in image denoising, is proposed and combined within the geometric detection framework. As the weighted averaging filter acts as the clutter suppression, the performance of the geometric detector is improved. Numerical experiments are given to validate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

  18. Numerical Study of Natural Gas/Diesel Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition Combustion with Large Eddy Simulation and Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir-Hasan Kakaee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In the current study, a comparative study is performed using Large Eddy Simulation (LES and Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS turbulence models on a natural gas/diesel Reactivity Controlled Compression Ignition (RCCI engine. The numerical results are validated against the available research work in the literature. The RNG (Re-Normalization Group k − ε and dynamic structure models are employed to model turbulent flow for RANS and LES simulations, respectively. Parameters like the premixed natural gas mass fraction, the second start of injection timing (SOI2 of diesel and the engine speed are studied to compare performance of RANS and LES models on combustion and pollutant emissions prediction. The results obtained showed that the LES and RANS model give almost similar predictions of cylinder pressure and heat release rate at lower natural gas mass fractions and late SOI2 timings. However, the LES showed improved capability to predict the natural gas auto-ignition and pollutant emissions prediction compared to RANS model especially at higher natural gas mass fractions.

  19. Prompt fission neutron spectra and average prompt neutron multiplicities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madland, D.G.; Nix, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    We present a new method for calculating the prompt fission neutron spectrum N(E) and average prompt neutron multiplicity anti nu/sub p/ as functions of the fissioning nucleus and its excitation energy. The method is based on standard nuclear evaporation theory and takes into account (1) the motion of the fission fragments, (2) the distribution of fission-fragment residual nuclear temperature, (3) the energy dependence of the cross section sigma/sub c/ for the inverse process of compound-nucleus formation, and (4) the possibility of multiple-chance fission. We use a triangular distribution in residual nuclear temperature based on the Fermi-gas model. This leads to closed expressions for N(E) and anti nu/sub p/ when sigma/sub c/ is assumed constant and readily computed quadratures when the energy dependence of sigma/sub c/ is determined from an optical model. Neutron spectra and average multiplicities calculated with an energy-dependent cross section agree well with experimental data for the neutron-induced fission of 235 U and the spontaneous fission of 252 Cf. For the latter case, there are some significant inconsistencies between the experimental spectra that need to be resolved. 29 references

  20. Gaussian Process Interpolation for Uncertainty Estimation in Image Registration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachinger, Christian; Golland, Polina; Reuter, Martin; Wells, William

    2014-01-01

    Intensity-based image registration requires resampling images on a common grid to evaluate the similarity function. The uncertainty of interpolation varies across the image, depending on the location of resampled points relative to the base grid. We propose to perform Bayesian inference with Gaussian processes, where the covariance matrix of the Gaussian process posterior distribution estimates the uncertainty in interpolation. The Gaussian process replaces a single image with a distribution over images that we integrate into a generative model for registration. Marginalization over resampled images leads to a new similarity measure that includes the uncertainty of the interpolation. We demonstrate that our approach increases the registration accuracy and propose an efficient approximation scheme that enables seamless integration with existing registration methods. PMID:25333127

  1. Model of averaged turbulent flow around cylindrical column for simulation of the saltation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kharlamova, Irina; Kharlamov, Alexander; Vlasák, Pavel

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 2 (2014), s. 103-110 ISSN 1802-1484 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA103/09/1718 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : sediment transport * flow around cylinder * logarithmic profile * dipole line * averaged turbulent flow Subject RIV: BK - Fluid Dynamics

  2. Parents' Reactions to Finding Out That Their Children Have Average or above Average IQ Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirks, Jean; And Others

    1983-01-01

    Parents of 41 children who had been given an individually-administered intelligence test were contacted 19 months after testing. Parents of average IQ children were less accurate in their memory of test results. Children with above average IQ experienced extremely low frequencies of sibling rivalry, conceit or pressure. (Author/HLM)

  3. Experimental study of average void fraction in low-flow subcooled boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Qi; Wang Xiaojun; Xi Zhao; Zhao Hua; Yang Ruichang

    2005-01-01

    Low-flow subcooled void fraction in medium pressure was investigated using high-temperature high-pressure single-sensor optical probe in this paper. And then average void fraction was obtained through the integral calculation of local void fraction in the cross-section. The experimental data were compared with the void fraction model proposed in advance. The results show that the predictions of this model agree with the data quite well. The comparisons of Saha and Levy models with low-flow subcooled data show that Saha model overestimates the experimental data distinctively, and Levy model also gets relatively higher predictions although it is better than Saha model. (author)

  4. A new LP formulation of the admission control problem modelled as an MDP under average reward criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietrabissa, Antonio

    2011-12-01

    The admission control problem can be modelled as a Markov decision process (MDP) under the average cost criterion and formulated as a linear programming (LP) problem. The LP formulation is attractive in the present and future communication networks, which support an increasing number of classes of service, since it can be used to explicitly control class-level requirements, such as class blocking probabilities. On the other hand, the LP formulation suffers from scalability problems as the number C of classes increases. This article proposes a new LP formulation, which, even if it does not introduce any approximation, is much more scalable: the problem size reduction with respect to the standard LP formulation is O((C + 1)2/2 C ). Theoretical and numerical simulation results prove the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  5. Averaged RMHD equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichiguchi, Katsuji

    1998-01-01

    A new reduced set of resistive MHD equations is derived by averaging the full MHD equations on specified flux coordinates, which is consistent with 3D equilibria. It is confirmed that the total energy is conserved and the linearized equations for ideal modes are self-adjoint. (author)

  6. 40 CFR 600.510-08 - Calculation of average fuel economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Calculation of average fuel economy. 600.510-08 Section 600.510-08 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) ENERGY POLICY FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fuel Economy Regulations for Model Year 1978 Passenger Automobiles...

  7. 40 CFR 600.510-93 - Calculation of average fuel economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Calculation of average fuel economy. 600.510-93 Section 600.510-93 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) ENERGY POLICY FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fuel Economy Regulations for Model Year 1978 Passenger Automobiles...

  8. 40 CFR 600.510-86 - Calculation of average fuel economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Calculation of average fuel economy. 600.510-86 Section 600.510-86 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) ENERGY POLICY FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF MOTOR VEHICLES Fuel Economy Regulations for Model Year 1978 Passenger Automobiles...

  9. Averaging for solitons with nonlinearity management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelinovsky, D.E.; Kevrekidis, P.G.; Frantzeskakis, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    We develop an averaging method for solitons of the nonlinear Schroedinger equation with a periodically varying nonlinearity coefficient, which is used to effectively describe solitons in Bose-Einstein condensates, in the context of the recently proposed technique of Feshbach resonance management. Using the derived local averaged equation, we study matter-wave bright and dark solitons and demonstrate a very good agreement between solutions of the averaged and full equations

  10. QSPR models based on molecular mechanics and quantum chemical calculations. 1. Construction of Boltzmann averaged descriptors for alkanes, alcohols, diols, ethers and cyclic compounds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dyekjær, Jane Dannow; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Jonsdottir, Svava Osk

    2002-01-01

    Values for nine descriptors for QSPR (quantitative structure-property relationships) modeling of physical properties of 96 alkanes, alcohols, ethers, diols, triols and cyclic alkanes and alcohols in conjunction with the program Codessa are presented. The descriptors are Boltzmann-averaged by sele......Values for nine descriptors for QSPR (quantitative structure-property relationships) modeling of physical properties of 96 alkanes, alcohols, ethers, diols, triols and cyclic alkanes and alcohols in conjunction with the program Codessa are presented. The descriptors are Boltzmann...

  11. A brief introduction to computer-intensive methods, with a view towards applications in spatial statistics and stereology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattfeldt, Torsten

    2011-04-01

    Computer-intensive methods may be defined as data analytical procedures involving a huge number of highly repetitive computations. We mention resampling methods with replacement (bootstrap methods), resampling methods without replacement (randomization tests) and simulation methods. The resampling methods are based on simple and robust principles and are largely free from distributional assumptions. Bootstrap methods may be used to compute confidence intervals for a scalar model parameter and for summary statistics from replicated planar point patterns, and for significance tests. For some simple models of planar point processes, point patterns can be simulated by elementary Monte Carlo methods. The simulation of models with more complex interaction properties usually requires more advanced computing methods. In this context, we mention simulation of Gibbs processes with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. An alternative to simulations on the basis of a parametric model consists of stochastic reconstruction methods. The basic ideas behind the methods are briefly reviewed and illustrated by simple worked examples in order to encourage novices in the field to use computer-intensive methods. © 2010 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2010 Royal Microscopical Society.

  12. A Three-Dimensional Statistical Average Skull: Application of Biometric Morphing in Generating Missing Anatomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshima, Tara Lynn; Patel, Vaibhav; Mainprize, James G; Edwards, Glenn; Antonyshyn, Oleh M

    2015-07-01

    The utilization of three-dimensional modeling technology in craniomaxillofacial surgery has grown exponentially during the last decade. Future development, however, is hindered by the lack of a normative three-dimensional anatomic dataset and a statistical mean three-dimensional virtual model. The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a protocol to generate a statistical three-dimensional virtual model based on a normative dataset of adult skulls. Two hundred adult skull CT images were reviewed. The average three-dimensional skull was computed by processing each CT image in the series using thin-plate spline geometric morphometric protocol. Our statistical average three-dimensional skull was validated by reconstructing patient-specific topography in cranial defects. The experiment was repeated 4 times. In each case, computer-generated cranioplasties were compared directly to the original intact skull. The errors describing the difference between the prediction and the original were calculated. A normative database of 33 adult human skulls was collected. Using 21 anthropometric landmark points, a protocol for three-dimensional skull landmarking and data reduction was developed and a statistical average three-dimensional skull was generated. Our results show the root mean square error (RMSE) for restoration of a known defect using the native best match skull, our statistical average skull, and worst match skull was 0.58, 0.74, and 4.4  mm, respectively. The ability to statistically average craniofacial surface topography will be a valuable instrument for deriving missing anatomy in complex craniofacial defects and deficiencies as well as in evaluating morphologic results of surgery.

  13. Forecasting stock market averages to enhance profitable trading strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Haefke, Christian; Helmenstein, Christian

    1995-01-01

    In this paper we design a simple trading strategy to exploit the hypothesized distinct informational content of the arithmetic and geometric mean. The rejection of cointegration between the two stock market indicators supports this conjecture. The profits generated by this cheaply replicable trading scheme cannot be expected to persist. Therefore we forecast the averages using autoregressive linear and neural network models to gain a competitive advantage relative to other investors. Refining...

  14. Theory and analysis of accuracy for the method of characteristics direction probabilities with boundary averaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Zhouyu; Collins, Benjamin; Kochunas, Brendan; Downar, Thomas; Xu, Yunlin; Wu, Hongchun

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The CDP combines the benefits of the CPM’s efficiency and the MOC’s flexibility. • Boundary averaging reduces the computation effort with losing minor accuracy. • An analysis model is used to justify the choice of optimize averaging strategy. • Numerical results show the performance and accuracy. - Abstract: The method of characteristic direction probabilities (CDP) combines the benefits of the collision probability method (CPM) and the method of characteristics (MOC) for the solution of the integral form of the Botlzmann Transport Equation. By coupling only the fine regions traversed by the characteristic rays in a particular direction, the computational effort required to calculate the probability matrices and to solve the matrix system is considerably reduced compared to the CPM. Furthermore, boundary averaging is performed to reduce the storage and computation but the capability of dealing with complicated geometries is preserved since the same ray tracing information is used as in MOC. An analysis model for the outgoing angular flux is used to analyze a variety of outgoing angular flux averaging methods for the boundary and to justify the choice of optimize averaging strategy. The boundary average CDP method was then implemented in the Michigan PArallel Characteristic based Transport (MPACT) code to perform 2-D and 3-D transport calculations. The numerical results are given for different cases to show the effect of averaging on the outgoing angular flux, region scalar flux and the eigenvalue. Comparison of the results with the case with no averaging demonstrates that an angular dependent averaging strategy is possible for the CDP to improve its computational performance without compromising the achievable accuracy

  15. An Empirical Bayes Mixture Model for Effect Size Distributions in Genome-Wide Association Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Wesley K.; Wang, Yunpeng; Schork, Andrew J.

    2015-01-01

    -wide association study (GWAS) test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via...... analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn’s disease (CD) and the other for schizophrenia (SZ). A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While...... minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local...

  16. 40 CFR 600.510-12 - Calculation of average fuel economy and average carbon-related exhaust emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... and average carbon-related exhaust emissions. 600.510-12 Section 600.510-12 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) ENERGY POLICY FUEL ECONOMY AND CARBON-RELATED EXHAUST EMISSIONS OF... Transportation. (iv) [Reserved] (2) Average carbon-related exhaust emissions will be calculated to the nearest...

  17. Banking Crisis Early Warning Model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taha Zaghdoudi

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The succession of banking crises in which most have resulted in huge economic and financial losses, prompted several authors to study their determinants. These authors constructed early warning models to prevent their occurring. It is in this same vein as our study takes its inspiration. In particular, we have developed a warning model of banking crises based on a Bayesian approach. The results of this approach have allowed us to identify the involvement of the decline in bank profitability, deterioration of the competitiveness of the traditional intermediation, banking concentration and higher real interest rates in triggering bank crisis.

  18. Improved averaging for non-null interferometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleig, Jon F.; Murphy, Paul E.

    2013-09-01

    Arithmetic averaging of interferometric phase measurements is a well-established method for reducing the effects of time varying disturbances, such as air turbulence and vibration. Calculating a map of the standard deviation for each pixel in the average map can provide a useful estimate of its variability. However, phase maps of complex and/or high density fringe fields frequently contain defects that severely impair the effectiveness of simple phase averaging and bias the variability estimate. These defects include large or small-area phase unwrapping artifacts, large alignment components, and voids that change in number, location, or size. Inclusion of a single phase map with a large area defect into the average is usually sufficient to spoil the entire result. Small-area phase unwrapping and void defects may not render the average map metrologically useless, but they pessimistically bias the variance estimate for the overwhelming majority of the data. We present an algorithm that obtains phase average and variance estimates that are robust against both large and small-area phase defects. It identifies and rejects phase maps containing large area voids or unwrapping artifacts. It also identifies and prunes the unreliable areas of otherwise useful phase maps, and removes the effect of alignment drift from the variance estimate. The algorithm has several run-time adjustable parameters to adjust the rejection criteria for bad data. However, a single nominal setting has been effective over a wide range of conditions. This enhanced averaging algorithm can be efficiently integrated with the phase map acquisition process to minimize the number of phase samples required to approach the practical noise floor of the metrology environment.

  19. Determination of the Orientation and Dynamics of Ergosterol in Model Membranes Using Uniform 13C Labeling and Dynamically Averaged 13C Chemical Shift Anisotropies as Experimental Restraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soubias, O.; Jolibois, F.; Massou, S.; Milon, A.; Réat, V.

    2005-01-01

    A new strategy was established to determine the average orientation and dynamics of ergosterol in dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine model membranes. It is based on the analysis of chemical shift anisotropies (CSAs) averaged by the molecular dynamics. Static 13C CSA tensors were computed by quantum chemistry, using the gauge-including atomic-orbital approach within Hartree-Fock theory. Uniformly 13C-labeled ergosterol was purified from Pichia pastoris cells grown on labeled methanol. After reconstitution into dimyristoylphosphatidylcholine lipids, the complete 1H and 13C assignment of ergosterol's resonances was performed using a combination of magic-angle spinning two-dimensional experiments. Dynamically averaged CSAs were determined by standard side-band intensity analysis for isolated 13C resonances (C3 and ethylenic carbons) and by off-magic-angle spinning experiments for other carbons. A set of 18 constraints was thus obtained, from which the sterol's molecular order parameter and average orientation could be precisely defined. The validity of using computed CSAs in this strategy was verified on cholesterol model systems. This new method allowed us to quantify ergosterol's dynamics at three molar ratios: 16 mol % (Ld phase), 30 mol % (Lo phase), and 23 mol % (mixed phases). Contrary to cholesterol, ergosterol's molecular diffusion axis makes an important angle (14°) with the inertial axis of the rigid four-ring system. PMID:15923221

  20. Preference for Averageness in Faces Does Not Generalize to Non-Human Primates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olivia B. Tomeo

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Facial attractiveness is a long-standing topic of active study in both neuroscience and social science, motivated by its positive social consequences. Over the past few decades, it has been established that averageness is a major factor influencing judgments of facial attractiveness in humans. Non-human primates share similar social behaviors as well as neural mechanisms related to face processing with humans. However, it is unknown whether monkeys, like humans, also find particular faces attractive and, if so, which kind of facial traits they prefer. To address these questions, we investigated the effect of averageness on preferences for faces in monkeys. We tested three adult male rhesus macaques using a visual paired comparison (VPC task, in which they viewed pairs of faces (both individual faces, or one individual face and one average face; viewing time was used as a measure of preference. We did find that monkeys looked longer at certain individual faces than others. However, unlike humans, monkeys did not prefer the average face over individual faces. In fact, the more the individual face differed from the average face, the longer the monkeys looked at it, indicating that the average face likely plays a role in face recognition rather than in judgments of facial attractiveness: in models of face recognition, the average face operates as the norm against which individual faces are compared and recognized. Taken together, our study suggests that the preference for averageness in faces does not generalize to non-human primates.

  1. Average expansion rate and light propagation in a cosmological Tardis spacetime

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavinto, Mikko; Räsänen, Syksy [Department of Physics, University of Helsinki, and Helsinki Institute of Physics, P.O. Box 64, FIN-00014 University of Helsinki (Finland); Szybka, Sebastian J., E-mail: mikko.lavinto@helsinki.fi, E-mail: syksy.rasanen@iki.fi, E-mail: sebastian.szybka@uj.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Jagellonian University, Orla 171, 30-244 Kraków (Poland)

    2013-12-01

    We construct the first exact statistically homogeneous and isotropic cosmological solution in which inhomogeneity has a significant effect on the expansion rate. The universe is modelled as a Swiss Cheese, with dust FRW background and inhomogeneous holes. We show that if the holes are described by the quasispherical Szekeres solution, their average expansion rate is close to the background under certain rather general conditions. We specialise to spherically symmetric holes and violate one of these conditions. As a result, the average expansion rate at late times grows relative to the background, \\ie backreaction is significant. The holes fit smoothly into the background, but are larger on the inside than a corresponding background domain: we call them Tardis regions. We study light propagation, find the effective equations of state and consider the relation of the spatially averaged expansion rate to the redshift and the angular diameter distance.

  2. Study of the binary mixtures of {monoglyme + (hexane, cyclohexane, octane, dodecane)} by ECM-average and PFP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivas, M.A.; Buep, A.H.; Iglesias, T.P.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Polarization of the real mixture is less than that of the ideal mixture. • Molar excess volume does not exert the dominant effect on the polarization of the mixture. • Similar influence of molecular interactions on the behaviour of excess permittivity. • Excess molar volume is more influenced by the interactions than excess permittivity. - Abstract: Excess molar volumes and excess permittivity of binary mixtures involving monoglyme and alkanes, such as n-hexane, cyclohexane, n-octane and n-dodecane, were calculated from density and relative permittivity measurements for the entire composition range at several temperatures (288.15, 298.15 and 308.15) K and atmospheric pressure. The excess permittivity was calculated on the basis of a recent definition considering the ideal volume fraction. Empirical equations for describing the experimental data in terms of temperature and concentration are given. The experimental values of permittivity have been compared with those estimated by well-known models from literature. The results have indicated that better predictions are obtained when the volume change on mixing is incorporated in these calculations. The contribution of interactions to the excess permittivity was analysed by means of the ECM-average model. The Prigogine–Flory–Patterson (PFP) theory of the thermodynamics of solutions was used to shed light on the contribution of interactions to the excess molar volume. The work concludes with an interpretation of the information given by the theoretical models and the behaviour of both excess magnitudes

  3. A time-averaged cosmic ray propagation theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimas, A.J.

    1975-01-01

    An argument is presented, which casts doubt on our ability to choose an appropriate magnetic field ensemble for computing the average behavior of cosmic ray particles. An alternate procedure, using time-averages rather than ensemble-averages, is presented. (orig.) [de

  4. Neural networks prediction and fault diagnosis applied to stationary and non stationary ARMA (Autoregressive moving average) modeled time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marseguerra, M.; Minoggio, S.; Rossi, A.; Zio, E.

    1992-01-01

    The correlated noise affecting many industrial plants under stationary or cyclo-stationary conditions - nuclear reactors included -has been successfully modeled by autoregressive moving average (ARMA) due to the versatility of this technique. The relatively recent neural network methods have similar features and much effort is being devoted to exploring their usefulness in forecasting and control. Identifying a signal by means of an ARMA model gives rise to the problem of selecting its correct order. Similar difficulties must be faced when applying neural network methods and, specifically, particular care must be given to the setting up of the appropriate network topology, the data normalization procedure and the learning code. In the present paper the capability of some neural networks of learning ARMA and seasonal ARMA processes is investigated. The results of the tested cases look promising since they indicate that the neural networks learn the underlying process with relative ease so that their forecasting capability may represent a convenient fault diagnosis tool. (Author)

  5. Low Average Sidelobe Slot Array Antennas for Radiometer Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rengarajan, Sembiam; Zawardzki, Mark S.; Hodges, Richard E.

    2012-01-01

    In radiometer applications, it is required to design antennas that meet low average sidelobe levels and low average return loss over a specified frequency bandwidth. It is a challenge to meet such specifications over a frequency range when one uses resonant elements such as waveguide feed slots. In addition to their inherent narrow frequency band performance, the problem is exacerbated due to modeling errors and manufacturing tolerances. There was a need to develop a design methodology to solve the problem. An iterative design procedure was developed by starting with an array architecture, lattice spacing, aperture distribution, waveguide dimensions, etc. The array was designed using Elliott s technique with appropriate values of the total slot conductance in each radiating waveguide, and the total resistance in each feed waveguide. Subsequently, the array performance was analyzed by the full wave method of moments solution to the pertinent integral equations. Monte Carlo simulations were also carried out to account for amplitude and phase errors introduced for the aperture distribution due to modeling errors as well as manufacturing tolerances. If the design margins for the average sidelobe level and the average return loss were not adequate, array architecture, lattice spacing, aperture distribution, and waveguide dimensions were varied in subsequent iterations. Once the design margins were found to be adequate, the iteration was stopped and a good design was achieved. A symmetric array architecture was found to meet the design specification with adequate margin. The specifications were near 40 dB for angular regions beyond 30 degrees from broadside. Separable Taylor distribution with nbar=4 and 35 dB sidelobe specification was chosen for each principal plane. A non-separable distribution obtained by the genetic algorithm was found to have similar characteristics. The element spacing was obtained to provide the required beamwidth and close to a null in the E

  6. 3D LOCAL SCALE SOLAR RADIATION MODEL BASED ON URBAN LIDAR DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. Redweik

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to obtain the direct, diffuse and reflected solar energy that reaches a generic point of an urban landscape regardless of its location on a roof, on the ground or on a façade. The vertical façades embody a discontinuity in a digital elevation surface function and most models fail in the determination of solar radiation for points on façades. The presented algorithm solves the problem in an integrated way: starting with a georreferenced LIDAR data cloud covering a 400 × 400 m2 urban area resampled in a 1m × 1m mesh, applies a new shadow algorithm over roofs, terrain and façades for each time frame, applies the Kumar solar radiation model for the calculation of direct, diffuse and reflected irradiation for each 1x1m raster cell on non vertical surfaces of roof and terrain, and calculates total and mean irradiation of each 1 meter wide column of vertical façade based on the illuminated area at each time frame. The results for each time frame are integrated for the wished time period from one hour to one year, being the time steps also selectable, allowing several kinds of solar radiation and shadowing studies. GIS were used to evaluate monthly averages of solar radiation for a particular location as well as to map the photovoltaic potential of the building façades and their roofs according to determined classes of potential.

  7. Three-dimensional topography of the gingival line of young adult maxillary teeth: curve averaging using reverse-engineering methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Young-Seok; Chang, Mi-Sook; Lee, Seung-Pyo

    2011-01-01

    This study attempted to establish three-dimensional average curves of the gingival line of maxillary teeth using reconstructed virtual models to utilize as guides for dental implant restorations. Virtual models from 100 full-mouth dental stone cast sets were prepared with a three-dimensional scanner and special reconstruction software. Marginal gingival lines were defined by transforming the boundary points to the NURBS (nonuniform rational B-spline) curve. Using an iterative closest point algorithm, the sample models were aligned and the gingival curves were isolated. Each curve was tessellated by 200 points using a uniform interval. The 200 tessellated points of each sample model were averaged according to the index of each model. In a pilot experiment, regression and fitting analysis of one obtained average curve was performed to depict it as mathematical formulae. The three-dimensional average curves of six maxillary anterior teeth, two maxillary right premolars, and a maxillary right first molar were obtained, and their dimensions were measured. Average curves of the gingival lines of young people were investigated. It is proposed that dentists apply these data to implant platforms or abutment designs to achieve ideal esthetics. The curves obtained in the present study may be incorporated as a basis for implant component design to improve the biologic nature and related esthetics of restorations.

  8. Unified Subharmonic Oscillation Conditions for Peak or Average Current Mode Control

    OpenAIRE

    Fang, Chung-Chieh

    2013-01-01

    This paper is an extension of the author's recent research in which only buck converters were analyzed. Similar analysis can be equally applied to other types of converters. In this paper, a unified model is proposed for buck, boost, and buck-boost converters under peak or average current mode control to predict the occurrence of subharmonic oscillation. Based on the unified model, the associated stability conditions are derived in closed forms. The same stability condition can be applied to ...

  9. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model applied to quantification of cerebral blood flow using dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murase, Kenya; Yamazaki, Youichi; Shinohara, Masaaki

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for quantification of cerebral blood flow (CBF) with dynamic susceptibility contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DSC-MRI) in comparison with deconvolution analysis based on singular value decomposition (DA-SVD). Using computer simulations, we generated a time-dependent concentration of the contrast agent in the volume of interest (VOI) from the arterial input function (AIF) modeled as a gamma-variate function under various CBFs, cerebral blood volumes and signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for three different types of residue function (exponential, triangular, and box-shaped). We also considered the effects of delay and dispersion in AIF. The ARMA model and DA-SVD were used to estimate CBF values from the simulated concentration-time curves in the VOI and AIFs, and the estimated values were compared with the assumed values. We found that the CBF value estimated by the ARMA model was more sensitive to the SNR and the delay in AIF than that obtained by DA-SVD. Although the ARMA model considerably overestimated CBF at low SNRs, it estimated the CBF more accurately than did DA-SVD at high SNRs for the exponential or triangular residue function. We believe this study will contribute to an understanding of the usefulness and limitations of the ARMA model when applied to quantification of CBF with DSC-MRI. (author)

  10. A NONPARAMETRIC HYPOTHESIS TEST VIA THE BOOTSTRAP RESAMPLING

    OpenAIRE

    Temel, Tugrul T.

    2001-01-01

    This paper adapts an already existing nonparametric hypothesis test to the bootstrap framework. The test utilizes the nonparametric kernel regression method to estimate a measure of distance between the models stated under the null hypothesis. The bootstraped version of the test allows to approximate errors involved in the asymptotic hypothesis test. The paper also develops a Mathematica Code for the test algorithm.

  11. Reformers, Batting Averages, and Malpractice: The Case for Caution in Value-Added Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleason, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The essay considers two analogies that help to reveal the limitations of value-added modeling: the first, a comparison with batting averages, shows that the model's reliability is quite limited even though year-to-year correlation figures may seem impressive; the second, a comparison between medical malpractice and so-called educational…

  12. Implementation of large-scale average geostrophic wind shear in WAsP12.1

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Floors, Rogier Ralph; Troen, Ib; Kelly, Mark C.

    The vertical extrapolation model described in the European Wind Atlas Troen and Petersen (1989) is modified to take into account large-scale average geostrophic wind shear to describe the effect of horizontal temperature gradients on the geostrophic wind. The method is implemented by extracting...... the average geostrophic wind shear from Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data and the values of nearest grid point are automatically used in the WAsP 12.1 user interface to provide better AEP predictions....

  13. Approximations for transport parameters and self-averaging properties for point-like injections in heterogeneous media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhard, Jens

    2004-01-01

    We focus on transport parameters in heterogeneous media with a flow modelled by an ensemble of periodic and Gaussian random fields. The parameters are determined by ensemble averages. We study to what extent these averages represent the behaviour in a single realization. We calculate the centre-of-mass velocity and the dispersion coefficient using approximations based on a perturbative expansion for the transport equation, and on the iterative solution of the Langevin equation. Compared with simulations, the perturbation theory reproduces the numerical results only poorly, whereas the iterative solution yields good results. Using these approximations, we investigate the self-averaging properties. The ensemble average of the velocity characterizes the behaviour of a realization for large times in both ensembles. The dispersion coefficient is not self-averaging in the ensemble of periodic fields. For the Gaussian ensemble the asymptotic dispersion coefficient is self-averaging. For finite times, however, the fluctuations are so large that the average does not represent the behaviour in a single realization

  14. 40 CFR 76.11 - Emissions averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 16 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Emissions averaging. 76.11 Section 76.11 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) ACID RAIN NITROGEN OXIDES EMISSION REDUCTION PROGRAM § 76.11 Emissions averaging. (a) General...

  15. Average spectral efficiency analysis of FSO links over turbulence channel with adaptive transmissions and aperture averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarthi, G.; Ramachandra Reddy, G.

    2018-03-01

    In our paper, the impact of adaptive transmission schemes: (i) optimal rate adaptation (ORA) and (ii) channel inversion with fixed rate (CIFR) on the average spectral efficiency (ASE) are explored for free-space optical (FSO) communications with On-Off Keying (OOK), Polarization shift keying (POLSK), and Coherent optical wireless communication (Coherent OWC) systems under different turbulence regimes. Further to enhance the ASE we have incorporated aperture averaging effects along with the above adaptive schemes. The results indicate that ORA adaptation scheme has the advantage of improving the ASE performance compared with CIFR under moderate and strong turbulence regime. The coherent OWC system with ORA excels the other modulation schemes and could achieve ASE performance of 49.8 bits/s/Hz at the average transmitted optical power of 6 dBm under strong turbulence. By adding aperture averaging effect we could achieve an ASE of 50.5 bits/s/Hz under the same conditions. This makes ORA with Coherent OWC modulation as a favorable candidate for improving the ASE of the FSO communication system.

  16. A practical guide to averaging functions

    CERN Document Server

    Beliakov, Gleb; Calvo Sánchez, Tomasa

    2016-01-01

    This book offers an easy-to-use and practice-oriented reference guide to mathematical averages. It presents different ways of aggregating input values given on a numerical scale, and of choosing and/or constructing aggregating functions for specific applications. Building on a previous monograph by Beliakov et al. published by Springer in 2007, it outlines new aggregation methods developed in the interim, with a special focus on the topic of averaging aggregation functions. It examines recent advances in the field, such as aggregation on lattices, penalty-based aggregation and weakly monotone averaging, and extends many of the already existing methods, such as: ordered weighted averaging (OWA), fuzzy integrals and mixture functions. A substantial mathematical background is not called for, as all the relevant mathematical notions are explained here and reported on together with a wealth of graphical illustrations of distinct families of aggregation functions. The authors mainly focus on practical applications ...

  17. 7 CFR 51.2561 - Average moisture content.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Average moisture content. 51.2561 Section 51.2561... STANDARDS) United States Standards for Grades of Shelled Pistachio Nuts § 51.2561 Average moisture content. (a) Determining average moisture content of the lot is not a requirement of the grades, except when...

  18. Development of a Regional Lidar-Derived Above-Ground Biomass Model with Bayesian Model Averaging for Use in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed Conifer Forests in Arizona and New Mexico, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karis Tenneson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Historical forest management practices in the southwestern US have left forests prone to high-severity, stand-replacement fires. Reducing the cost of forest-fire management and reintroducing fire to the landscape without negative impact depends on detailed knowledge of stand composition, in particular, above-ground biomass (AGB. Lidar-based modeling techniques provide opportunities to increase ability of managers to monitor AGB and other forest metrics at reduced cost. We developed a regional lidar-based statistical model to estimate AGB for Ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest systems of the southwestern USA, using previously collected field data. Model selection was performed using Bayesian model averaging (BMA to reduce researcher bias, fully explore the model space, and avoid overfitting. The selected model includes measures of canopy height, canopy density, and height distribution. The model selected with BMA explains 71% of the variability in field-estimates of AGB, and the RMSE of the two independent validation data sets are 23.25 and 32.82 Mg/ha. The regional model is structured in accordance with previously described local models, and performs equivalently to these smaller scale models. We have demonstrated the effectiveness of lidar for developing cost-effective, robust regional AGB models for monitoring and planning adaptively at the landscape scale.

  19. Determining average path length and average trapping time on generalized dual dendrimer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ling; Guan, Jihong

    2015-03-01

    Dendrimer has wide number of important applications in various fields. In some cases during transport or diffusion process, it transforms into its dual structure named Husimi cactus. In this paper, we study the structure properties and trapping problem on a family of generalized dual dendrimer with arbitrary coordination numbers. We first calculate exactly the average path length (APL) of the networks. The APL increases logarithmically with the network size, indicating that the networks exhibit a small-world effect. Then we determine the average trapping time (ATT) of the trapping process in two cases, i.e., the trap placed on a central node and the trap is uniformly distributed in all the nodes of the network. In both case, we obtain explicit solutions of ATT and show how they vary with the networks size. Besides, we also discuss the influence of the coordination number on trapping efficiency.

  20. Computation of the bounce-average code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cutler, T.A.; Pearlstein, L.D.; Rensink, M.E.

    1977-01-01

    The bounce-average computer code simulates the two-dimensional velocity transport of ions in a mirror machine. The code evaluates and bounce-averages the collision operator and sources along the field line. A self-consistent equilibrium magnetic field is also computed using the long-thin approximation. Optionally included are terms that maintain μ, J invariance as the magnetic field changes in time. The assumptions and analysis that form the foundation of the bounce-average code are described. When references can be cited, the required results are merely stated and explained briefly. A listing of the code is appended

  1. Zonally averaged model of dynamics, chemistry and radiation for the atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, K. K.

    1985-01-01

    A nongeostrophic theory of zonally averaged circulation is formulated using the nonlinear primitive equations on a sphere, taking advantage of the more direct relationship between the mean meridional circulation and diabatic heating rate which is available in isentropic coordinates. Possible differences between results of nongeostrophic theory and the commonly used geostrophic formulation are discussed concerning: (1) the role of eddy forcing of the diabatic circulation, and (2) the nonlinear nearly inviscid limit vs the geostrophic limit. Problems associated with the traditional Rossby number scaling in quasi-geostrophic formulations are pointed out and an alternate, more general scaling based on the smallness of mean meridional to zonal velocities for a rotating planet is suggested. Such a scaling recovers the geostrophic balanced wind relationship for the mean zonal flow but reveals that the mean meridional velocity is in general ageostrophic.

  2. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

    2014-12-02

    Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

  3. Reynolds averaged simulation of unsteady separated flow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iaccarino, G.; Ooi, A.; Durbin, P.A.; Behnia, M.

    2003-01-01

    The accuracy of Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence models in predicting complex flows with separation is examined. The unsteady flow around square cylinder and over a wall-mounted cube are simulated and compared with experimental data. For the cube case, none of the previously published numerical predictions obtained by steady-state RANS produced a good match with experimental data. However, evidence exists that coherent vortex shedding occurs in this flow. Its presence demands unsteady RANS computation because the flow is not statistically stationary. The present study demonstrates that unsteady RANS does indeed predict periodic shedding, and leads to much better concurrence with available experimental data than has been achieved with steady computation

  4. Averaging and sampling for magnetic-observatory hourly data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Love

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available A time and frequency-domain analysis is made of the effects of averaging and sampling methods used for constructing magnetic-observatory hourly data values. Using 1-min data as a proxy for continuous, geomagnetic variation, we construct synthetic hourly values of two standard types: instantaneous "spot" measurements and simple 1-h "boxcar" averages. We compare these average-sample types with others: 2-h average, Gaussian, and "brick-wall" low-frequency-pass. Hourly spot measurements provide a statistically unbiased representation of the amplitude range of geomagnetic-field variation, but as a representation of continuous field variation over time, they are significantly affected by aliasing, especially at high latitudes. The 1-h, 2-h, and Gaussian average-samples are affected by a combination of amplitude distortion and aliasing. Brick-wall values are not affected by either amplitude distortion or aliasing, but constructing them is, in an operational setting, relatively more difficult than it is for other average-sample types. It is noteworthy that 1-h average-samples, the present standard for observatory hourly data, have properties similar to Gaussian average-samples that have been optimized for a minimum residual sum of amplitude distortion and aliasing. For 1-h average-samples from medium and low-latitude observatories, the average of the combination of amplitude distortion and aliasing is less than the 5.0 nT accuracy standard established by Intermagnet for modern 1-min data. For medium and low-latitude observatories, average differences between monthly means constructed from 1-min data and monthly means constructed from any of the hourly average-sample types considered here are less than the 1.0 nT resolution of standard databases. We recommend that observatories and World Data Centers continue the standard practice of reporting simple 1-h-average hourly values.

  5. The average size of ordered binary subgraphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Leeuwen, J.; Hartel, Pieter H.

    To analyse the demands made on the garbage collector in a graph reduction system, the change in size of an average graph is studied when an arbitrary edge is removed. In ordered binary trees the average number of deleted nodes as a result of cutting a single edge is equal to the average size of a

  6. Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacinta Chan Phooi M'ng

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to examine the trends in the exchange rate markets of the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia (IDR, Malaysia (MYR, the Philippines (PHP, Singapore (SGD, and Thailand (THB through the application of dynamic moving average trading systems. This research offers evidence of the usefulness of the time-varying volatility technical analysis indicator, Adjustable Moving Average (AMA' in deciphering trends in these ASEAN-5 exchange rate markets. This time-varying volatility factor, referred to as the Efficacy Ratio in this paper, is embedded in AMA'. The Efficacy Ratio adjusts the AMA' to the prevailing market conditions by avoiding whipsaws (losses due, in part, to acting on wrong trading signals, which generally occur when there is no general direction in the market in range trading and by entering early into new trends in trend trading. The efficacy of AMA' is assessed against other popular moving-average rules. Based on the January 2005 to December 2014 dataset, our findings show that the moving averages and AMA' are superior to the passive buy-and-hold strategy. Specifically, AMA' outperforms the other models for the United States Dollar against PHP (USD/PHP and USD/THB currency pairs. The results show that different length moving averages perform better in different periods for the five currencies. This is consistent with our hypothesis that a dynamic adjustable technical indicator is needed to cater for different periods in different markets.

  7. Assessing the Efficacy of Adjustable Moving Averages Using ASEAN-5 Currencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan Phooi M'ng, Jacinta; Zainudin, Rozaimah

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this research is to examine the trends in the exchange rate markets of the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia (IDR), Malaysia (MYR), the Philippines (PHP), Singapore (SGD), and Thailand (THB)) through the application of dynamic moving average trading systems. This research offers evidence of the usefulness of the time-varying volatility technical analysis indicator, Adjustable Moving Average (AMA') in deciphering trends in these ASEAN-5 exchange rate markets. This time-varying volatility factor, referred to as the Efficacy Ratio in this paper, is embedded in AMA'. The Efficacy Ratio adjusts the AMA' to the prevailing market conditions by avoiding whipsaws (losses due, in part, to acting on wrong trading signals, which generally occur when there is no general direction in the market) in range trading and by entering early into new trends in trend trading. The efficacy of AMA' is assessed against other popular moving-average rules. Based on the January 2005 to December 2014 dataset, our findings show that the moving averages and AMA' are superior to the passive buy-and-hold strategy. Specifically, AMA' outperforms the other models for the United States Dollar against PHP (USD/PHP) and USD/THB currency pairs. The results show that different length moving averages perform better in different periods for the five currencies. This is consistent with our hypothesis that a dynamic adjustable technical indicator is needed to cater for different periods in different markets.

  8. Quasi-analytical treatment of spatially averaged radiation transfer in complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    LöWe, H.; Helbig, N.

    2012-10-01

    We provide a new quasi-analytical method to compute the subgrid topographic influences on the shortwave radiation fluxes and the effective albedo in complex terrain as required for large-scale meteorological, land surface, or climate models. We investigate radiative transfer in complex terrain via the radiosity equation on isotropic Gaussian random fields. Under controlled approximations we derive expressions for domain-averaged fluxes of direct, diffuse, and terrain radiation and the sky view factor. Domain-averaged quantities can be related to a type of level-crossing probability of the random field, which is approximated by long-standing results developed for acoustic scattering at ocean boundaries. This allows us to express all nonlocal horizon effects in terms of a local terrain parameter, namely, the mean-square slope. Emerging integrals are computed numerically, and fit formulas are given for practical purposes. As an implication of our approach, we provide an expression for the effective albedo of complex terrain in terms of the Sun elevation angle, mean-square slope, the area-averaged surface albedo, and the ratio of atmospheric direct beam to diffuse radiation. For demonstration we compute the decrease of the effective albedo relative to the area-averaged albedo in Switzerland for idealized snow-covered and clear-sky conditions at noon in winter. We find an average decrease of 5.8% and spatial patterns which originate from characteristics of the underlying relief. Limitations and possible generalizations of the method are discussed.

  9. A new type of exact arbitrarily inhomogeneous cosmology: evolution of deceleration in the flat homogeneous-on-average case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hellaby, Charles, E-mail: Charles.Hellaby@uct.ac.za [Dept. of Maths. and Applied Maths, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701 (South Africa)

    2012-01-01

    A new method for constructing exact inhomogeneous universes is presented, that allows variation in 3 dimensions. The resulting spacetime may be statistically uniform on average, or have random, non-repeating variation. The construction utilises the Darmois junction conditions to join many different component spacetime regions. In the initial simple example given, the component parts are spatially flat and uniform, but much more general combinations should be possible. Further inhomogeneity may be added via swiss cheese vacuoles and inhomogeneous metrics. This model is used to explore the proposal, that observers are located in bound, non-expanding regions, while the universe is actually in the process of becoming void dominated, and thus its average expansion rate is increasing. The model confirms qualitatively that the faster expanding components come to dominate the average, and that inhomogeneity results in average parameters which evolve differently from those of any one component, but more realistic modelling of the effect will need this construction to be generalised.

  10. Middle and long-term prediction of UT1-UTC based on combination of Gray Model and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Song; Xu, Tian-he; Sun, Zhang-zhen; Li, Jia-jing

    2017-02-01

    UT1-UTC is an important part of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP). The high-precision predictions of UT1-UTC play a key role in practical applications of deep space exploration, spacecraft tracking and satellite navigation and positioning. In this paper, a new prediction method with combination of Gray Model (GM(1, 1)) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) is developed. The main idea is as following. Firstly, the UT1-UTC data are preprocessed by removing the leap second and Earth's zonal harmonic tidal to get UT1R-TAI data. Periodic terms are estimated and removed by the least square to get UT2R-TAI. Then the linear terms of UT2R-TAI data are modeled by the GM(1, 1), and the residual terms are modeled by the ARIMA. Finally, the UT2R-TAI prediction can be performed based on the combined model of GM(1, 1) and ARIMA, and the UT1-UTC predictions are obtained by adding the corresponding periodic terms, leap second correction and the Earth's zonal harmonic tidal correction. The results show that the proposed model can be used to predict UT1-UTC effectively with higher middle and long-term (from 32 to 360 days) accuracy than those of LS + AR, LS + MAR and WLS + MAR.

  11. Automatic individual arterial input functions calculated from PCA outperform manual and population-averaged approaches for the pharmacokinetic modeling of DCE-MR images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanz-Requena, Roberto; Prats-Montalbán, José Manuel; Martí-Bonmatí, Luis; Alberich-Bayarri, Ángel; García-Martí, Gracián; Pérez, Rosario; Ferrer, Alberto

    2015-08-01

    To introduce a segmentation method to calculate an automatic arterial input function (AIF) based on principal component analysis (PCA) of dynamic contrast enhanced MR (DCE-MR) imaging and compare it with individual manually selected and population-averaged AIFs using calculated pharmacokinetic parameters. The study included 65 individuals with prostate examinations (27 tumors and 38 controls). Manual AIFs were individually extracted and also averaged to obtain a population AIF. Automatic AIFs were individually obtained by applying PCA to volumetric DCE-MR imaging data and finding the highest correlation of the PCs with a reference AIF. Variability was assessed using coefficients of variation and repeated measures tests. The different AIFs were used as inputs to the pharmacokinetic model and correlation coefficients, Bland-Altman plots and analysis of variance tests were obtained to compare the results. Automatic PCA-based AIFs were successfully extracted in all cases. The manual and PCA-based AIFs showed good correlation (r between pharmacokinetic parameters ranging from 0.74 to 0.95), with differences below the manual individual variability (RMSCV up to 27.3%). The population-averaged AIF showed larger differences (r from 0.30 to 0.61). The automatic PCA-based approach minimizes the variability associated to obtaining individual volume-based AIFs in DCE-MR studies of the prostate. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Facial averageness and genetic quality: Testing heritability, genetic correlation with attractiveness, and the paternal age effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Anthony J; Mitchem, Dorian G; Wright, Margaret J; Martin, Nicholas G; Keller, Matthew C; Zietsch, Brendan P

    2016-01-01

    Popular theory suggests that facial averageness is preferred in a partner for genetic benefits to offspring. However, whether facial averageness is associated with genetic quality is yet to be established. Here, we computed an objective measure of facial averageness for a large sample ( N = 1,823) of identical and nonidentical twins and their siblings to test two predictions from the theory that facial averageness reflects genetic quality. First, we use biometrical modelling to estimate the heritability of facial averageness, which is necessary if it reflects genetic quality. We also test for a genetic association between facial averageness and facial attractiveness. Second, we assess whether paternal age at conception (a proxy of mutation load) is associated with facial averageness and facial attractiveness. Our findings are mixed with respect to our hypotheses. While we found that facial averageness does have a genetic component, and a significant phenotypic correlation exists between facial averageness and attractiveness, we did not find a genetic correlation between facial averageness and attractiveness (therefore, we cannot say that the genes that affect facial averageness also affect facial attractiveness) and paternal age at conception was not negatively associated with facial averageness. These findings support some of the previously untested assumptions of the 'genetic benefits' account of facial averageness, but cast doubt on others.

  13. Capillary Electrophoresis Sensitivity Enhancement Based on Adaptive Moving Average Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drevinskas, Tomas; Telksnys, Laimutis; Maruška, Audrius; Gorbatsova, Jelena; Kaljurand, Mihkel

    2018-06-05

    In the present work, we demonstrate a novel approach to improve the sensitivity of the "out of lab" portable capillary electrophoretic measurements. Nowadays, many signal enhancement methods are (i) underused (nonoptimal), (ii) overused (distorts the data), or (iii) inapplicable in field-portable instrumentation because of a lack of computational power. The described innovative migration velocity-adaptive moving average method uses an optimal averaging window size and can be easily implemented with a microcontroller. The contactless conductivity detection was used as a model for the development of a signal processing method and the demonstration of its impact on the sensitivity. The frequency characteristics of the recorded electropherograms and peaks were clarified. Higher electrophoretic mobility analytes exhibit higher-frequency peaks, whereas lower electrophoretic mobility analytes exhibit lower-frequency peaks. On the basis of the obtained data, a migration velocity-adaptive moving average algorithm was created, adapted, and programmed into capillary electrophoresis data-processing software. Employing the developed algorithm, each data point is processed depending on a certain migration time of the analyte. Because of the implemented migration velocity-adaptive moving average method, the signal-to-noise ratio improved up to 11 times for sampling frequency of 4.6 Hz and up to 22 times for sampling frequency of 25 Hz. This paper could potentially be used as a methodological guideline for the development of new smoothing algorithms that require adaptive conditions in capillary electrophoresis and other separation methods.

  14. Delineation of facial archetypes by 3d averaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaweesh, Ashraf I; Thomas, C David L; Bankier, Agnes; Clement, John G

    2004-10-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the feasibility of creating archetypal 3D faces through computerized 3D facial averaging. A 3D surface scanner Fiore and its software were used to acquire the 3D scans of the faces while 3D Rugle3 and locally-developed software generated the holistic facial averages. 3D facial averages were created from two ethnic groups; European and Japanese and from children with three previous genetic disorders; Williams syndrome, achondroplasia and Sotos syndrome as well as the normal control group. The method included averaging the corresponding depth (z) coordinates of the 3D facial scans. Compared with other face averaging techniques there was not any warping or filling in the spaces by interpolation; however, this facial average lacked colour information. The results showed that as few as 14 faces were sufficient to create an archetypal facial average. In turn this would make it practical to use face averaging as an identification tool in cases where it would be difficult to recruit a larger number of participants. In generating the average, correcting for size differences among faces was shown to adjust the average outlines of the facial features. It is assumed that 3D facial averaging would help in the identification of the ethnic status of persons whose identity may not be known with certainty. In clinical medicine, it would have a great potential for the diagnosis of syndromes with distinctive facial features. The system would also assist in the education of clinicians in the recognition and identification of such syndromes.

  15. To quantum averages through asymptotic expansion of classical averages on infinite-dimensional space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikov, Andrei

    2007-01-01

    We study asymptotic expansions of Gaussian integrals of analytic functionals on infinite-dimensional spaces (Hilbert and nuclear Frechet). We obtain an asymptotic equality coupling the Gaussian integral and the trace of the composition of scaling of the covariation operator of a Gaussian measure and the second (Frechet) derivative of a functional. In this way we couple classical average (given by an infinite-dimensional Gaussian integral) and quantum average (given by the von Neumann trace formula). We can interpret this mathematical construction as a procedure of 'dequantization' of quantum mechanics. We represent quantum mechanics as an asymptotic projection of classical statistical mechanics with infinite-dimensional phase space. This space can be represented as the space of classical fields, so quantum mechanics is represented as a projection of 'prequantum classical statistical field theory'

  16. Averaging problem in general relativity, macroscopic gravity and using Einstein's equations in cosmology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalaletdinov, R. M.

    1998-04-01

    The averaging problem in general relativity is briefly discussed. A new setting of the problem as that of macroscopic description of gravitation is proposed. A covariant space-time averaging procedure is described. The structure of the geometry of macroscopic space-time, which follows from averaging Cartan's structure equations, is described and the correlation tensors present in the theory are discussed. The macroscopic field equations (averaged Einstein's equations) derived in the framework of the approach are presented and their structure is analysed. The correspondence principle for macroscopic gravity is formulated and a definition of the stress-energy tensor for the macroscopic gravitational field is proposed. It is shown that the physical meaning of using Einstein's equations with a hydrodynamic stress-energy tensor in looking for cosmological models means neglecting all gravitational field correlations. The system of macroscopic gravity equations to be solved when the correlations are taken into consideration is given and described.

  17. Local and average structure of Mn- and La-substituted BiFeO{sub 3}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, Bo; Selbach, Sverre M., E-mail: selbach@ntnu.no

    2017-06-15

    The local and average structure of solid solutions of the multiferroic perovskite BiFeO{sub 3} is investigated by synchrotron X-ray diffraction (XRD) and electron density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The average experimental structure is determined by Rietveld refinement and the local structure by total scattering data analyzed in real space with the pair distribution function (PDF) method. With equal concentrations of La on the Bi site or Mn on the Fe site, La causes larger structural distortions than Mn. Structural models based on DFT relaxed geometry give an improved fit to experimental PDFs compared to models constrained by the space group symmetry. Berry phase calculations predict a higher ferroelectric polarization than the experimental literature values, reflecting that structural disorder is not captured in either average structure space group models or DFT calculations with artificial long range order imposed by periodic boundary conditions. Only by including point defects in a supercell, here Bi vacancies, can DFT calculations reproduce the literature results on the structure and ferroelectric polarization of Mn-substituted BiFeO{sub 3}. The combination of local and average structure sensitive experimental methods with DFT calculations is useful for illuminating the structure-property-composition relationships in complex functional oxides with local structural distortions. - Graphical abstract: The experimental and simulated partial pair distribution functions (PDF) for BiFeO{sub 3}, BiFe{sub 0.875}Mn{sub 0.125}O{sub 3}, BiFe{sub 0.75}Mn{sub 0.25}O{sub 3} and Bi{sub 0.9}La{sub 0.1}FeO{sub 3}.

  18. Determination of the average lifetime of b-baryons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abreu, P.; Adam, W.

    1996-01-01

    The average lifetime of b-baryons has been studied using 3.10 6 hadronic Z 0 decays collected by the DELPHI detector at LEP. Three methods have been used, based on the measurement of different observables: the proper decay time distribution of 206 vertices reconstructed with a Λ, a lepton and an oppositely charged pion; the impact parameter distribution of 441 muons with high transverse momentum accompanied by a Λ in the same jet; and the proper decay time distribution of 125 Λ c -lepton decay vertices with the Λ c exclusively reconstructed through its pKπ, pK 0 and Λ3π decay modes. The combined result is: τ(b-baryon)=(1.254 +0.121 -0.109 (stat) ±0.04(syst) +0.03 -0.05 (syst)) ps where the first systematic error is due to experimental uncertainties and the second to the uncertainties in the modelling of the b-baryon production and semi-leptonic decay. Including the measurement recently published by DELPHI based on a sample of proton-muon vertices, the average b-baryon lifetime is: τ(b-baryon)=(1.255 +0.115 -0.102 (stat) ±0.05) ps. (orig.)

  19. Average-atom model for two-temperature states and ionic transport properties of aluminum in the warm dense matter regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Yong; Fu, Yongsheng; Bredow, Richard; Kang, Dongdong; Redmer, Ronald; Yuan, Jianmin

    2017-03-01

    The average-atom model combined with the hyper-netted chain approximation is an efficient tool for electronic and ionic structure calculations for warm dense matter. Here we generalize this method in order to describe non-equilibrium states with different electron and ion temperature as produced in laser-matter interactions on ultra-short time scales. In particular, the electron-ion and ion-ion correlation effects are considered when calculating the electron structure. We derive an effective ion-ion pair-potential using the electron densities in the framework of temperature-depended density functional theory. Using this ion-ion potential we perform molecular dynamics simulations in order to determine the ionic transport properties such as the ionic diffusion coefficient and the shear viscosity through the ionic velocity autocorrelation functions.

  20. Multi-criteria, personalized route planning using quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadi, S.; Delavar, M. R.

    2011-06-01

    This paper presents a generic model for using different decision strategies in multi-criteria, personalized route planning. Some researchers have considered user preferences in navigation systems. However, these prior studies typically employed a high tradeoff decision strategy, which used a weighted linear aggregation rule, and neglected other decision strategies. The proposed model integrates a pairwise comparison method and quantifier-guided ordered weighted averaging (OWA) aggregation operators to form a personalized route planning method that incorporates different decision strategies. The model can be used to calculate the impedance of each link regarding user preferences in terms of the route criteria, criteria importance and the selected decision strategy. Regarding the decision strategy, the calculated impedance lies between aggregations that use a logical "and" (which requires all the criteria to be satisfied) and a logical "or" (which requires at least one criterion to be satisfied). The calculated impedance also includes taking the average of the criteria scores. The model results in multiple alternative routes, which apply different decision strategies and provide users with the flexibility to select one of them en-route based on the real world situation. The model also defines the robust personalized route under different decision strategies. The influence of different decision strategies on the results are investigated in an illustrative example. This model is implemented in a web-based geographical information system (GIS) for Isfahan in Iran and verified in a tourist routing scenario. The results demonstrated, in real world situations, the validity of the route planning carried out in the model.

  1. Self-similarity of higher-order moving averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arianos, Sergio; Carbone, Anna; Türk, Christian

    2011-10-01

    In this work, higher-order moving average polynomials are defined by straightforward generalization of the standard moving average. The self-similarity of the polynomials is analyzed for fractional Brownian series and quantified in terms of the Hurst exponent H by using the detrending moving average method. We prove that the exponent H of the fractional Brownian series and of the detrending moving average variance asymptotically agree for the first-order polynomial. Such asymptotic values are compared with the results obtained by the simulations. The higher-order polynomials correspond to trend estimates at shorter time scales as the degree of the polynomial increases. Importantly, the increase of polynomial degree does not require to change the moving average window. Thus trends at different time scales can be obtained on data sets with the same size. These polynomials could be interesting for those applications relying on trend estimates over different time horizons (financial markets) or on filtering at different frequencies (image analysis).

  2. Construction of average adult Japanese voxel phantoms for dose assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Kaoru; Takahashi, Fumiaki; Satoh, Daiki; Endo, Akira

    2011-12-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) adopted the adult reference voxel phantoms based on the physiological and anatomical reference data of Caucasian on October, 2007. The organs and tissues of these phantoms were segmented on the basis of ICRP Publication 103. In future, the dose coefficients for internal dose and dose conversion coefficients for external dose calculated using the adult reference voxel phantoms will be widely used for the radiation protection fields. On the other hand, the body sizes and organ masses of adult Japanese are generally smaller than those of adult Caucasian. In addition, there are some cases that the anatomical characteristics such as body sizes, organ masses and postures of subjects influence the organ doses in dose assessment for medical treatments and radiation accident. Therefore, it was needed to use human phantoms with average anatomical characteristics of Japanese. The authors constructed the averaged adult Japanese male and female voxel phantoms by modifying the previously developed high-resolution adult male (JM) and female (JF) voxel phantoms. It has been modified in the following three aspects: (1) The heights and weights were agreed with the Japanese averages; (2) The masses of organs and tissues were adjusted to the Japanese averages within 10%; (3) The organs and tissues, which were newly added for evaluation of the effective dose in ICRP Publication 103, were modeled. In this study, the organ masses, distances between organs, specific absorbed fractions (SAFs) and dose conversion coefficients of these phantoms were compared with those evaluated using the ICRP adult reference voxel phantoms. This report provides valuable information on the anatomical and dosimetric characteristics of the averaged adult Japanese male and female voxel phantoms developed as reference phantoms of adult Japanese. (author)

  3. Determinants of College Grade Point Averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Paul Dean

    2012-01-01

    Chapter 2: The Role of Class Difficulty in College Grade Point Averages. Grade Point Averages (GPAs) are widely used as a measure of college students' ability. Low GPAs can remove a students from eligibility for scholarships, and even continued enrollment at a university. However, GPAs are determined not only by student ability but also by the…

  4. Rotational averaging of multiphoton absorption cross sections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friese, Daniel H., E-mail: daniel.h.friese@uit.no; Beerepoot, Maarten T. P.; Ruud, Kenneth [Centre for Theoretical and Computational Chemistry, University of Tromsø — The Arctic University of Norway, N-9037 Tromsø (Norway)

    2014-11-28

    Rotational averaging of tensors is a crucial step in the calculation of molecular properties in isotropic media. We present a scheme for the rotational averaging of multiphoton absorption cross sections. We extend existing literature on rotational averaging to even-rank tensors of arbitrary order and derive equations that require only the number of photons as input. In particular, we derive the first explicit expressions for the rotational average of five-, six-, and seven-photon absorption cross sections. This work is one of the required steps in making the calculation of these higher-order absorption properties possible. The results can be applied to any even-rank tensor provided linearly polarized light is used.

  5. Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Structural Breaks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F. Ravazzolo (Francesco); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); R. Paap (Richard); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractThis paper develops a return forecasting methodology that allows for instabil ity in the relationship between stock returns and predictor variables, for model uncertainty, and for parameter estimation uncertainty. The predictive regres sion speci¯cation that is put forward allows for

  6. Predicting Student Grade Point Average at a Community College from Scholastic Aptitude Tests and from Measures Representing Three Constructs in Vroom's Expectancy Theory Model of Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malloch, Douglas C.; Michael, William B.

    1981-01-01

    This study was designed to determine whether an unweighted linear combination of community college students' scores on standardized achievement tests and a measure of motivational constructs derived from Vroom's expectance theory model of motivation was predictive of academic success (grade point average earned during one quarter of an academic…

  7. Quantifying and reducing model-form uncertainties in Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations: A data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, H.; Wu, J.-L.; Wang, J.-X.; Sun, R.; Roy, C.J.

    2016-01-01

    Despite their well-known limitations, Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models are still the workhorse tools for turbulent flow simulations in today's engineering analysis, design and optimization. While the predictive capability of RANS models depends on many factors, for many practical flows the turbulence models are by far the largest source of uncertainty. As RANS models are used in the design and safety evaluation of many mission-critical systems such as airplanes and nuclear power plants, quantifying their model-form uncertainties has significant implications in enabling risk-informed decision-making. In this work we develop a data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian framework for quantifying model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations. Uncertainties are introduced directly to the Reynolds stresses and are represented with compact parameterization accounting for empirical prior knowledge and physical constraints (e.g., realizability, smoothness, and symmetry). An iterative ensemble Kalman method is used to assimilate the prior knowledge and observation data in a Bayesian framework, and to propagate them to posterior distributions of velocities and other Quantities of Interest (QoIs). We use two representative cases, the flow over periodic hills and the flow in a square duct, to evaluate the performance of the proposed framework. Both cases are challenging for standard RANS turbulence models. Simulation results suggest that, even with very sparse observations, the obtained posterior mean velocities and other QoIs have significantly better agreement with the benchmark data compared to the baseline results. At most locations the posterior distribution adequately captures the true model error within the developed model form uncertainty bounds. The framework is a major improvement over existing black-box, physics-neutral methods for model-form uncertainty quantification, where prior knowledge and details of the models are not exploited. This approach has

  8. Quantifying and reducing model-form uncertainties in Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulations: A data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiao, H., E-mail: hengxiao@vt.edu; Wu, J.-L.; Wang, J.-X.; Sun, R.; Roy, C.J.

    2016-11-01

    Despite their well-known limitations, Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models are still the workhorse tools for turbulent flow simulations in today's engineering analysis, design and optimization. While the predictive capability of RANS models depends on many factors, for many practical flows the turbulence models are by far the largest source of uncertainty. As RANS models are used in the design and safety evaluation of many mission-critical systems such as airplanes and nuclear power plants, quantifying their model-form uncertainties has significant implications in enabling risk-informed decision-making. In this work we develop a data-driven, physics-informed Bayesian framework for quantifying model-form uncertainties in RANS simulations. Uncertainties are introduced directly to the Reynolds stresses and are represented with compact parameterization accounting for empirical prior knowledge and physical constraints (e.g., realizability, smoothness, and symmetry). An iterative ensemble Kalman method is used to assimilate the prior knowledge and observation data in a Bayesian framework, and to propagate them to posterior distributions of velocities and other Quantities of Interest (QoIs). We use two representative cases, the flow over periodic hills and the flow in a square duct, to evaluate the performance of the proposed framework. Both cases are challenging for standard RANS turbulence models. Simulation results suggest that, even with very sparse observations, the obtained posterior mean velocities and other QoIs have significantly better agreement with the benchmark data compared to the baseline results. At most locations the posterior distribution adequately captures the true model error within the developed model form uncertainty bounds. The framework is a major improvement over existing black-box, physics-neutral methods for model-form uncertainty quantification, where prior knowledge and details of the models are not exploited. This approach

  9. Ergodic averages via dominating processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2006-01-01

    We show how the mean of a monotone function (defined on a state space equipped with a partial ordering) can be estimated, using ergodic averages calculated from upper and lower dominating processes of a stationary irreducible Markov chain. In particular, we do not need to simulate the stationary...... Markov chain and we eliminate the problem of whether an appropriate burn-in is determined or not. Moreover, when a central limit theorem applies, we show how confidence intervals for the mean can be estimated by bounding the asymptotic variance of the ergodic average based on the equilibrium chain....

  10. Pattern Recognition of Momentary Mental Workload Based on Multi-Channel Electrophysiological Data and Ensemble Convolutional Neural Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jianhua; Li, Sunan; Wang, Rubin

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we deal with the Mental Workload (MWL) classification problem based on the measured physiological data. First we discussed the optimal depth (i.e., the number of hidden layers) and parameter optimization algorithms for the Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). The base CNNs designed were tested according to five classification performance indices, namely Accuracy, Precision, F-measure, G-mean, and required training time. Then we developed an Ensemble Convolutional Neural Network (ECNN) to enhance the accuracy and robustness of the individual CNN model. For the ECNN design, three model aggregation approaches (weighted averaging, majority voting and stacking) were examined and a resampling strategy was used to enhance the diversity of individual CNN models. The results of MWL classification performance comparison indicated that the proposed ECNN framework can effectively improve MWL classification performance and is featured by entirely automatic feature extraction and MWL classification, when compared with traditional machine learning methods.

  11. A note on computing average state occupation times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Beyersmann

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This review discusses how biometricians would probably compute or estimate expected waiting times, if they had the data. Methods: Our framework is a time-inhomogeneous Markov multistate model, where all transition hazards are allowed to be time-varying. We assume that the cumulative transition hazards are given. That is, they are either known, as in a simulation, determined by expert guesses, or obtained via some method of statistical estimation. Our basic tool is product integration, which transforms the transition hazards into the matrix of transition probabilities. Product integration enjoys a rich mathematical theory, which has successfully been used to study probabilistic and statistical aspects of multistate models. Our emphasis will be on practical implementation of product integration, which allows us to numerically approximate the transition probabilities. Average state occupation times and other quantities of interest may then be derived from the transition probabilities.

  12. High-Average-Power Diffraction Pulse-Compression Gratings Enabling Next-Generation Ultrafast Laser Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alessi, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-11-01

    Pulse compressors for ultrafast lasers have been identified as a technology gap in the push towards high peak power systems with high average powers for industrial and scientific applications. Gratings for ultrashort (sub-150fs) pulse compressors are metallic and can absorb a significant percentage of laser energy resulting in up to 40% loss as well as thermal issues which degrade on-target performance. We have developed a next generation gold grating technology which we have scaled to the petawatt-size. This resulted in improvements in efficiency, uniformity and processing as compared to previous substrate etched gratings for high average power. This new design has a deposited dielectric material for the grating ridge rather than etching directly into the glass substrate. It has been observed that average powers as low as 1W in a compressor can cause distortions in the on-target beam. We have developed and tested a method of actively cooling diffraction gratings which, in the case of gold gratings, can support a petawatt peak power laser with up to 600W average power. We demonstrated thermo-mechanical modeling of a grating in its use environment and benchmarked with experimental measurement. Multilayer dielectric (MLD) gratings are not yet used for these high peak power, ultrashort pulse durations due to their design challenges. We have designed and fabricated broad bandwidth, low dispersion MLD gratings suitable for delivering 30 fs pulses at high average power. This new grating design requires the use of a novel Out Of Plane (OOP) compressor, which we have modeled, designed, built and tested. This prototype compressor yielded a transmission of 90% for a pulse with 45 nm bandwidth, and free of spatial and angular chirp. In order to evaluate gratings and compressors built in this project we have commissioned a joule-class ultrafast Ti:Sapphire laser system. Combining the grating cooling and MLD technologies developed here could enable petawatt laser systems to

  13. Model selection and averaging in the assessment of the drivers of household food waste to reduce the probability of false positives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aramyan, Lusine; Piras, Simone; Quested, Thomas Edward; Righi, Simone; Setti, Marco; Vittuari, Matteo; Stewart, Gavin Bruce

    2018-01-01

    Food waste from households contributes the greatest proportion to total food waste in developed countries. Therefore, food waste reduction requires an understanding of the socio-economic (contextual and behavioural) factors that lead to its generation within the household. Addressing such a complex subject calls for sound methodological approaches that until now have been conditioned by the large number of factors involved in waste generation, by the lack of a recognised definition, and by limited available data. This work contributes to food waste generation literature by using one of the largest available datasets that includes data on the objective amount of avoidable household food waste, along with information on a series of socio-economic factors. In order to address one aspect of the complexity of the problem, machine learning algorithms (random forests and boruta) for variable selection integrated with linear modelling, model selection and averaging are implemented. Model selection addresses model structural uncertainty, which is not routinely considered in assessments of food waste in literature. The main drivers of food waste in the home selected in the most parsimonious models include household size, the presence of fussy eaters, employment status, home ownership status, and the local authority. Results, regardless of which variable set the models are run on, point toward large households as being a key target element for food waste reduction interventions. PMID:29389949

  14. Model selection and averaging in the assessment of the drivers of household food waste to reduce the probability of false positives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grainger, Matthew James; Aramyan, Lusine; Piras, Simone; Quested, Thomas Edward; Righi, Simone; Setti, Marco; Vittuari, Matteo; Stewart, Gavin Bruce

    2018-01-01

    Food waste from households contributes the greatest proportion to total food waste in developed countries. Therefore, food waste reduction requires an understanding of the socio-economic (contextual and behavioural) factors that lead to its generation within the household. Addressing such a complex subject calls for sound methodological approaches that until now have been conditioned by the large number of factors involved in waste generation, by the lack of a recognised definition, and by limited available data. This work contributes to food waste generation literature by using one of the largest available datasets that includes data on the objective amount of avoidable household food waste, along with information on a series of socio-economic factors. In order to address one aspect of the complexity of the problem, machine learning algorithms (random forests and boruta) for variable selection integrated with linear modelling, model selection and averaging are implemented. Model selection addresses model structural uncertainty, which is not routinely considered in assessments of food waste in literature. The main drivers of food waste in the home selected in the most parsimonious models include household size, the presence of fussy eaters, employment status, home ownership status, and the local authority. Results, regardless of which variable set the models are run on, point toward large households as being a key target element for food waste reduction interventions.

  15. Non-Gaussian Closed Form Solutions for Geometric Average Asian Options in the Framework of Non-Extensive Statistical Mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pan Zhao

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider pricing problems of the geometric average Asian options under a non-Gaussian model, in which the underlying stock price is driven by a process based on non-extensive statistical mechanics. The model can describe the peak and fat tail characteristics of returns. Thus, the description of underlying asset price and the pricing of options are more accurate. Moreover, using the martingale method, we obtain closed form solutions for geometric average Asian options. Furthermore, the numerical analysis shows that the model can avoid underestimating risks relative to the Black-Scholes model.

  16. Extending a Consensus-based Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average (FOWA Model in New Water Quality Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Baghapour

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In developing a specific WQI (Water Quality Index, many water quality parameters are involved with different levels of importance. The impact of experts’ different opinions and viewpoints, current risks affecting their opinions, and plurality of the involved parameters double the significance of the issue. Hence, the current study tries to apply a consensus-based FOWA (Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average model as one of the most powerful and well-known Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM techniques to determine the importance of the used parameters in the development of such WQIs which is shown with an example. This operator has provided the capability of modeling the risks in decision-making through applying the optimistic degree of stakeholders and their power coupled with the use of fuzzy numbers. Totally, 22 water quality parameters for drinking purposes are considered in this study. To determine the weight of each parameter, the viewpoints of 4 decision-making groups of experts are taken into account. After determining the final weights, to validate the use of each parameter in a potential WQI, consensus degrees of both the decision makers and the parameters are calculated. All calculations are carried out by using the expertise software called Group Fuzzy Decision Making (GFDM. The highest and the lowest weight values, 0.999 and 0.073 respectively, are related to Hg and temperature. Regarding the type of consumption that is drinking, the parameters’ weights and ranks are consistent with their health impacts. Moreover, the decision makers’ highest and lowest consensus degrees were 0.9905 and 0.9669, respectively. Among the water quality parameters, temperature (with consensus degree of 0.9972 and Pb (with consensus degree of 0.9665, received the highest and lowest agreement from the decision making group. This study indicates that the weight of parameters in determining water quality largely depends on the experts’ opinions and

  17. Extending a Consensus-based Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average (FOWA Model in New Water Quality Indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Baghapour

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In developing a specific WQI (Water Quality Index, many quality parameters are involved with different levels of importance. The impact of experts’ different opinions and viewpoints, current risks affecting their opinions, and plurality of the involved parameters double the significance of the issue. Hence, the current study tries to apply a consensus-based FOWA (Fuzzy Ordered Weighting Average model as one of the most powerful and well-known Multi-Criteria Decision- Making (MCDM techniques to determine the importance of the used parameters in the development of such WQIs which is shown with an example. This operator has provided the capability of modeling the risks in decision-making through applying the optimistic degree of stakeholders and their power coupled with the use of fuzzy numbers. Totally, 22 water quality parameters for drinking purposes were considered in this study. To determine the weight of each parameter, the viewpoints of 4 decision-making groups of experts were taken into account. After determining the final weights, to validate the use of each parameter in a potential WQI, consensus degrees of both the decision makers and the parameters are calculated. The highest and the lowest weight values, 0.999 and 0.073 respectively, were related to Hg and temperature. Regarding the type of consumption that was drinking, the parameters’ weights and ranks were consistent with their health impacts. Moreover, the decision makers’ highest and lowest consensus degrees were 0.9905 and 0.9669, respectively. Among the water quality parameters, temperature (with consensus degree of 0.9972 and Pb (with consensus degree of 0.9665, received the highest and lowest agreement with the decision-making group. This study indicated that the weight of parameters in determining water quality largely depends on the experts’ opinions and approaches. Moreover, using the FOWA model provides results accurate and closer- to-reality on the significance of

  18. Hybrid support vector regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models improved by particle swarm optimization for property crime rates forecasting with economic indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alwee, Razana; Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam Hj; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-01-01

    Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

  19. Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models Improved by Particle Swarm Optimization for Property Crime Rates Forecasting with Economic Indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razana Alwee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models.

  20. Modelling lead bioaccessibility in urban topsoils based on data from Glasgow, London, Northampton and Swansea, UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appleton, J.D.; Cave, M.R.; Wragg, J.

    2012-01-01

    Predictive linear regression (LR) modelling between bioaccessible Pb and a range of total elemental compositions and soil properties was executed for the Glasgow, London, Northampton and Swansea