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Sample records for reported increased confidence

  1. Increasing Mobility Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Español In Your Area NPF Shop Increasing Mobility Confidence To increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Make Text Smaller ... It might seem counterintuitive, but to increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Build physical activity ...

  2. Mars Rover Curriculum: Teacher Self Reporting of Increased Frequency and Confidence in their Science and Language Arts Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bering, E. A.; Carlson, C.; Nieser, K.; Slagle, E.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Houston is in the process of developing a flexible program that offers children an in-depth educational experience culminating in the design and construction of their own model Mars rover. The program is called the Mars Rover Model Celebration (MRC). It focuses on students, teachers and parents in grades 3-8. Students design and build a model of a Mars rover to carry out a student selected science mission on the surface of Mars. A total of 65 Mars Rover teachers from the 2012-2013 cohort were invited to complete the Mars Rover Teacher Evaluation Survey. The survey was administered online and could be taken at the convenience of the participant. In total, 29 teachers participated in the survey. Teachers were asked to rate their current level of confidence in their ability to teach specific topics within the Earth and Life Science realms, as well as their confidence in their ability to implement teaching strategies with their students. In addition, they were asked to rate the degree to which they felt their confidence increased in the past year as a result of their participation in the MRC program. The majority of teachers (81-90%) felt somewhat to very confident in their ability to effectively teach concepts related to earth and life sciences to their students. In addition, many of the teachers felt that their confidence in teaching these concepts increased somewhat to quite a bit as a result of their participation in the MRC program (54-88%). The most striking increase in this area was the reported 48% of teachers who felt their confidence in teaching 'Earth and the solar system and universe' increased 'Quite a bit' as a result of their participation in the MRC program. The vast majority of teachers (86-100%) felt somewhat to very confident in their ability to effectively implement all of the listed teaching strategies. In addition, the vast majority reported believing that their confidence increased somewhat to quite a bit as a result of their

  3. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  4. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  5. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  6. Confidence and Construal Framing: When Confidence Increases versus Decreases Information Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Echo Wen Wan; Derek D. Rucker

    2013-01-01

    A large literature demonstrates that people process information more carefully in states of low compared to high confidence. This article presents an alternative hypothesis that either high or low confidence can increase or decrease information processing on the basis of how information is construed. Five experiments demonstrate two sets of findings supporting this alternative formulation. First, low confidence leads people to focus on concrete construals, whereas high confidence leads people...

  7. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning.

  8. Increasing Knowledge and Confidence in Behavioral Change: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frates, Elizabeth P; Xiao, Ryan C; Simeon, Kate; McCargo, Tracie; Guo, Michelle; Stern, Theodore A

    2016-11-24

    To assess whether and how effectively an interactive presentation about lifestyle medicine could impact the knowledge and attitudes of medical students to prepare them for managing chronic conditions in their patients. Chronic diseases are increasingly prevalent and problematic. Although chronic disease management involves lifestyle modification, few physicians are adequately trained in effective motivational interventions. We surveyed first- and second-year Harvard Medical School students in October 2015 before and after a presentation on lifestyle medicine and quantified changes in their knowledge, attitudes/confidence, and skills. Medical students learned the basics of behavioral change after a 1-hour presentation, and their confidence with regard to implementing interventions increased. Median scores of confidence in counseling patients on lifestyle changes improved as did their ability to counsel patients on exercise, nutrition, sleep, stress management, and smoking cessation. After a brief intervention, medical students can learn principles of behavioral management and how to implement the skills with patients suffering from chronic illnesses.

  9. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of this review is to determine what interventions are most effective in increasing balance confidence in older adults. The American Geriatrics Society (AGS published clinical guidelines 2011 that recommended all adults aged 65 years and older be screened for falls. Prevention of the fall can be done by combination of exercise include Strengthening exercise, Balance & co-ordination exercise,Hydrotherapy and allied therapeutics such as tai chi and yoga.

  10. Implementing video cases in clinical paediatric teaching increases medical students' self-assessed confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malon, Michelle; Cortes, Dina; Andersen, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    having seen a child with asthma in the daily clinic. In contrast, respiratory syncytial virus infection was only seen by 20%. Students' self-reported confidence in the assessment of paediatric patients increased after the video case library was made available: Before the intervention, 41% (57....../138) of the students reported confidence at a score of 5-7 on a seven-point Likert scale. This increased to 64% (186/289) (p

  11. INTERVENTIONS FOR INCREASING BALANCE & CONFIDENCE IN OLDER ADULTS: A REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Foram Dhebar

    2014-01-01

    Elderly is defined as being 65 years of age or older. Geriatrics or geriatric medicine is a specialty that focuses on health care of elderly people. The number of persons above the age of 60 years is fast growing, especially in India. Falls are the leading cause of traumatic brain injury, fractures & the leading cause of emergency department visits by older adults. Low balance confidence is a major health problem among older adults restricting their participation in daily life. Objective of t...

  12. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  13. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  14. Increasing the Confidence of African Carbon Cycle Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardö, Jonas

    2016-04-01

    Scarcity of in situ measurements of greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes hamper calibration and validation of assessments of carbon budgets in Africa. It limits essential studies of ecosystem function and ecosystem processes. The wide range reported net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP) for continental African is partly a function of the uncertainty originating from this data scarcity. GPP estimates, based on vegetation models and remote sensing based models, range from ~17 to ~40 Pg C yr-1 and NPP estimates roughly range from ~7 to ~20 Pg C yr-1 for continental Africa. According to the MOD17 product does Africa contribute about 23 % of the global GPP and about 25 % of the global NPP. These percentages have recently increased slightly. Differences in modeled carbon use efficiency (i.e. the NPP/GPP ratio) further enhance the uncertainty caused by low spatial resolution driver data sets when deriving NPP from GPP. Current substantial uncertainty in vegetation productivity estimates for Africa (both magnitudes and carbon use efficiency) may be reduced by increased abundance and availability of in situ collected field data including meteorology, radiation, spectral properties, GHG fluxes as well as long term ecological field experiments. Current measurements of GHGs fluxes in Africa are sparse and lacking impressive coordination. The European Fluxes Database Cluster includes ~24 African sites with carbon flux data, most of them with a small amount of data in short time series. Large and diverse biomes such as the evergreen broad leafed forest are under-represented whereas savannas are slightly better represented. USA for example, with 171 flux site listed in FLUXNET has a flux site density of 17 sites per million km2, whereas Africa has density of 0.8 sites per million km2. Increased and coordinated collection of data on fluxes of GHGs, ecosystem properties and processes, both through advanced micro meteorological measurements and through cost

  15. Innovation in internship preparation: an operative anatomy course increases senior medical students' knowledge and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tocco, Nikki; Brunsvold, Melissa; Kabbani, Loay; Lin, Jules; Stansfield, Brent; Mueller, Dean; Minter, Rebecca M

    2013-08-01

    An operative anatomy course was developed within the construct of a surgical internship preparatory curriculum. This course provided fourth-year medical students matching into a surgical residency the opportunity to perform intern-level procedures on cadavers under the guidance of surgical faculty members. Senior medical students performed intern-level procedures on cadavers with the assistance of faculty surgeons. Students' confidence, anxiety, and procedural knowledge were evaluated both preoperatively and postoperatively. Preoperative and postoperative data were compared both collectively and based on individual procedures. Student confidence and procedural knowledge significantly increased and anxiety significantly decreased when preoperative and postoperative data were compared (P < .05). Students reported moderate to significant improvement in their ability to perform a variety of surgical tasks. The consistent improvement in confidence, knowledge, and anxiety justifies further development of an operative anatomy course, with future assessment of the impact on performance in surgical residency. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Strengthening Social Ties to Increase Confidence and Self-Esteem Among Sexual and Gender Minority Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romijnders, Kim A; Wilkerson, J Michael; Crutzen, Rik; Kok, Gerjo; Bauldry, Jessica; Lawler, Sylvia M

    2017-05-01

    Sexual and gender minority (SGM) youth too often live in nonsupportive environments. This study reports the influence of social support from primary and secondary social ties on confidence and self-esteem among participants in Hatch Youth, a drop-in group-level intervention for SGM youth. Each 3-hour Hatch Youth meeting consists of a social, educational, and youth-led support hour. Over 14 weeks, these meetings were randomly observed and individual interviews with participating youth ( n = 12) and staff and volunteers ( n = 12) were conducted; data underwent a content analysis. Participants perceived an increase in confidence and self-esteem through enhanced bonding with family and friends, a sense of belonging, and community empowerment because of their involvement with Hatch Youth, suggesting drop-in centers can strengthen secondary social ties and improve confidence and self-esteem.

  17. A national radiation oncology medical student clerkship survey: Didactic curricular components increase confidence in clinical competency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S.; Raleigh, David R.; Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J.; Golden, Daniel W.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose/Objectives Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete one or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials An anonymous, internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012–2013 academic year. The survey was composed of three main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results The survey response rate was 37% (70/188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. 27% of respondents (19/70) completed at least one clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent’s confidence to function as a first- year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank-sum p = 0.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman’s rho p = 0.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman’s rho p = 0.43). Conclusions Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation

  18. A National Radiation Oncology Medical Student Clerkship Survey: Didactic Curricular Components Increase Confidence in Clinical Competency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jagadeesan, Vikrant S. [Department of Radiation and Cellular Oncology, Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Raleigh, David R. [Department of Radiation Oncology, School of Medicine, University of California–San Francisco, San Francisco, California (United States); Koshy, Matthew; Howard, Andrew R.; Chmura, Steven J. [Department of Radiation and Cellular Oncology, Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Golden, Daniel W., E-mail: dgolden@radonc.uchicago.edu [Department of Radiation and Cellular Oncology, Pritzker School of Medicine, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Students applying to radiation oncology residency programs complete 1 or more radiation oncology clerkships. This study assesses student experiences and perspectives during radiation oncology clerkships. The impact of didactic components and number of clerkship experiences in relation to confidence in clinical competency and preparation to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident are evaluated. Methods and Materials: An anonymous, Internet-based survey was sent via direct e-mail to all applicants to a single radiation oncology residency program during the 2012-2013 academic year. The survey was composed of 3 main sections including questions regarding baseline demographic information and prior radiation oncology experience, rotation experiences, and ideal clerkship curriculum content. Results: The survey response rate was 37% (70 of 188). Respondents reported 191 unique clerkship experiences. Of the respondents, 27% (19 of 70) completed at least 1 clerkship with a didactic component geared towards their level of training. Completing a clerkship with a didactic component was significantly associated with a respondent's confidence to function as a first-year radiation oncology resident (Wilcoxon rank–sum P=.03). However, the total number of clerkships completed did not correlate with confidence to pursue radiation oncology as a specialty (Spearman ρ P=.48) or confidence to function as a first year resident (Spearman ρ P=.43). Conclusions: Based on responses to this survey, rotating students perceive that the majority of radiation oncology clerkships do not have formal didactic curricula. Survey respondents who completed a clerkship with a didactic curriculum reported feeling more prepared to function as a radiation oncology resident. However, completing an increasing number of clerkships does not appear to improve confidence in the decision to pursue radiation oncology as a career or to function as a radiation oncology resident. These

  19. Increasing Self-Confidence of Indonesian Low Ability Student with Green’s Motivational Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, I.; Darhim; Asih, E. C. M.

    2017-02-01

    Self-confidence is the important factor of mathematical learning, But in the reality, many 8th grade students do not have good self-confidence. To increasing the self-confidence is used Green’s motivational strategies. So the purpose of the research is to know whether the Green’s motivational strategies can increase the self-confidence of 8th grade students. The research focus on Indonesian junior high school student with lower ability. The research used qualitative research method, with basic qualitative research approach design. The activity included teaching material development and interview with student. From all conversation on the interview with students, students have satisfied feel. Students’s self-confidence has changed better. All students show up that they can handle all matematical problems.

  20. Patients' confidence in methods of blood pressure assessment and their reported adherence to antihypertensive medications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Paul; Zeng, Jennifer; Tuttle, Laura; Viera, Anthony J

    2017-10-01

    Adherence to antihypertensive medications is often less than optimal. Research suggests that patients have limited confidence regarding whether office blood pressure (BP) assessments represent their 'true' BP, which may further promote poor adherence to BP-lowering medication. We assessed peoples' confidence in the methods of BP assessment and examined the associations between patients' confidence levels and medication adherence comparing office and home BP-monitoring techniques. We surveyed US adults aged 30 years or older (N=1010), all of whom had undergone an office BP measurement within the past 6 months. Respondents who indicated being prescribed antihypertensive medication (N=429) were asked to indicate their level of confidence on a 1-9 scale that BP measurements represented their true BP, and their adherence to antihypertensive medication using the eight-item Morisky Medical Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). Respondents had equal confidence that both office BP measurements and home monitoring measurements reflected their true BP (median=7). Respondents indicated that they would have slightly more confidence in ambulatory BP monitoring (median=8). As respondents' confidence in the assessments of BP from office measurements and home monitoring increased from 1 to 9, the mean MMAS-8 score, adjusted for age, race, and education, increased from 5.38 to 6.25 (P=0.053) and from 5.50 to 6.14 (P=0.25), respectively. As patients' confidence in a BP assessment method increases, so too does their reported adherence to prescribed antihypertensive medications. This finding further supports the incorporation of methods in which patients can feel confident that the measurements are representative of their 'true' BP.

  1. A systematic review of the effectiveness of interventions to increase women's confidence in breastfeeding

    OpenAIRE

    Yeung, Lee-man; 楊莉敏

    2014-01-01

    Background Breastfeeding is the gold standard in infant nutrition. Despite increasing mothers choose to breastfeed, low exclusivity remains. One of the top-ranked and yet modifiable reasons is perceived insufficient milk that results in low confidence in breastfeeding. To date, no review examined the effectiveness of intervention in increasing women’s confidence in breastfeeding. Purpose The purpose of this review was to examine intervention studies that aimed at enhancing women’s c...

  2. Increased student self-confidence in clinical reasoning skills associated with case-based learning (CBL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Jon S

    2006-01-01

    Second-year veterinary students were surveyed at the beginning and end of a 15-week semester regarding their confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills: (1) making Problem Lists; (2) making Rule-Out Lists; and (3) selecting appropriate diagnostic tests. Each week during the semester, these skills were practiced in small-group case discussions. Changes in self-confidence were analyzed and studied in light of faculty assessments of student competence in performance of the three skills. The purpose of the study was to determine if students' self-confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills increased with practice. On the first and last days of class, students rated their confidence in each of the three skills on a scale of 0 to 10. Mean confidence scores for the whole class both for time points and for each of the three skills were analyzed. There were significant increases in students' self-confidence in all three clinical reasoning skills over the semester each year. A greater percentage of students expressed improved confidence in selecting appropriate diagnostic tests than in the other two skills in three of the four years studied. Students' self-confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills improved over the course of a semester in which they practiced the skills in a CBL format. Subjective faculty assessment of students' competence in these skills generally indicated improvement. However, no meaningful conclusions about the correlation of skill competence and student confidence could be drawn because of inadequacies in the measurement of student performance.

  3. 77 FR 5471 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-03

    ... AGENCY 40 CFR Parts 141 and 142 Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR... Internet on February 23, 2012, to obtain stakeholder input on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule as.... Background: Consumer Confidence Reports are a key part of the public's right-to-know as established in...

  4. Confidence-increasing elements in user instructions: Seniors' reactions to verification steps and personal stories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loorbach, Nicole; Karreman, Joyce; Steehouder, Michaël

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Research shows that confidence-increasing elements in user instructions positively influence senior users' task performance and motivation. We added verification steps and personal stories to user instructions for a cell phone, to find out how seniors (between 60 and 70 years) perceive thes

  5. Training and Mandated Reporters' Confidence Levels: A Correlational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, Cathy S.

    2011-01-01

    Child maltreatment is a costly social issue, both financially and in terms of children's well-being. All 50 states and many countries have enacted mandatory reporting laws, but not all of them require mandated reporter training. A multitude of studies have shown that many mandated reporters do not report all of the cases of suspected child abuse…

  6. Increasing general practitioners' confidence and self-efficacy in managing obesity: a mixed methods study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haesler, Emily; Elmitt, Nicholas; van Weel, Chris; Douglas, Kirsty

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Internationally, general practitioners (GPs) are being encouraged to take an active role in the care of their patients with obesity, but as yet there are few tools for them to implement within their clinics. This study assessed the self-efficacy and confidence of GPs before and after implementing a weight management programme in their practice. Design Nested mixed methods study within a 6-month feasibility trial. Setting 4 urban general practices and 1 rural general practice in Australia. Participants All vocationally registered GPs in the local region were eligible and invited to participate; 12 GPs were recruited and 11 completed the study. Interventions The Change Programme is a structured GP-delivered weight management programme that uses the therapeutic relationship between the patient and their GP to provide holistic and person-centred care. It is an evidence-based programme founded on Australian guidelines for the management of obesity in primary care. Primary outcome measures Self-efficacy and confidence of the GPs when managing obesity was measured using a quantitative survey consisting of Likert scales in conjunction with pro forma interviews. Results In line with social cognitive theory, GPs who experienced performance mastery during the pilot intervention had an increase in their confidence and self-efficacy. In particular, confidence in assisting and arranging care for patients was improved as demonstrated in the survey and supported by the qualitative data. Most importantly from the qualitative data, GPs described changing their usual practice and felt more confident to discuss obesity with all of their patients. Conclusions A structured management tool for obesity care in general practice can improve GP confidence and self-efficacy in managing obesity. Enhancing GP ‘professional self-efficacy’ is the first step to improving obesity management within general practice. Trial registration number ACTRN12614001192673; Results. PMID:28132016

  7. The Role of Residential Early Parenting Services in Increasing Parenting Confidence in Mothers with A History of Infertility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjan Lynette

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background Mothers with a history of infertility may experience parenting difficulties and challenges. This study was conducted to investigate the role of residential early parenting services in increasing parenting confidence in mothers with a history of infertility. Materials and Methods This was a retrospective chart review study using the quantitative data from the clients attending the Karitane Residential Units and Parenting Services (known as Karitane RUs during 2013. Parenting confidence (using Karitane Parenting Confidence Scale-KPCS, depression, demographics, reproductive and medical history, as well as child’s information were assessed from a sample of 27 mothers who had a history of infertility and who attended the Karitane RUs for support and assistance. The data were analyzed using SPSS version 19. Results More than half of the women (59.3% reported a relatively low level of parenting confidence on the day of admission. The rate of low parenting confidence, however, dropped to 22.2% after receiving 4-5 days support and training in the Karitane RUs. The mean score of the KPCS increased from 36.9 ± 5.6 before the intervention to 41.1 ± 3.4 after the intervention, indicating an improvement in the parenting confidence of the mothers after attending the Karitane RUs (P<0.0001. No statistically significant association was found between maternal low parenting confidence with parental demographics (including age, country of birth, and employment status, a history of help-seeking, symptoms of depression, as well as child’s information [including gender, age, siblings, diagnosis of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GORD and use of medication]. Conclusion Having a child after a period of infertility can be a stressful experience for some mothers. This can result in low parenting confidence and affect parent-child attachment. Our findings emphasized on the role of the residential early parenting services in promoting the level of

  8. End-of-Life Conversation Game Increases Confidence for Having End-of-Life Conversations for Chaplains-in-Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Scoy, Lauren Jodi; Watson-Martin, Elizabeth; Bohr, Tiffany A; Levi, Benjamin H; Green, Michael J

    2017-01-01

    Discussing end-of-life issues with patients is an essential role for chaplains. Few tools are available to help chaplains-in-training develop end-of-life communication skills. This study aimed to determine whether playing an end-of-life conversation game increases the confidence for chaplain-in-trainings to discuss end-of-life issues with patients. We used a convergent mixed methods design. Chaplains-in-training played the end-of-life conversation game twice over 2 weeks. For each game, pre- and postgame questionnaires measured confidence discussing end-of-life issues with patients and emotional affect. Between games, chaplains-in-training discussed end-of-life issues with an inpatient. One week after game 2, chaplains-in-training were individually interviewed. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and Wilcoxon rank-sum t tests. Content analysis identified interview themes. Quantitative and qualitative data sets were then integrated using a joint display. Twenty-three chaplains-in-training (52% female; 87% Caucasian; 70% were in year 1 of training) completed the study. Confidence scores (scale: 15-75; 75 = very confident) increased significantly after each game, increasing by 10.0 points from pregame 1 to postgame 2 ( P game, and shyness subscale scores decreased significantly after each game. Content analysis found that chaplains-in-training found the game to be a positive, useful experience and reported that playing twice was beneficial (not redundant). Mixed methods analysis suggest that an end-of-life conversation game is a useful tool that can increase chaplain-in-trainings' confidence for initiating end-of-life discussions with patients. A larger sample size is needed to confirm these findings.

  9. 77 FR 57566 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-18

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review and Request for Public Comment on Potential Approaches to Electronic Delivery of the CCR;...

  10. Management of orthodontic emergencies in primary care - self-reported confidence of general dental practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popat, H; Thomas, K; Farnell, D J J

    2016-07-08

    Objective To determine general dental practitioners' (GDPs) confidence in managing orthodontic emergencies.Design Cross-sectional study.Setting Primary dental care.Subjects and methods An online survey was distributed to dentists practicing in Wales. The survey collected basic demographic information and included descriptions of ten common orthodontic emergency scenarios.Main outcome measure Respondents' self-reported confidence in managing the orthodontic emergency scenarios on a 5-point Likert scale. Differences between the Likert responses and the demographic variables were investigated using chi-squared tests.Results The median number of orthodontic emergencies encountered by respondents over the previous six months was 1. Overall, the self-reported confidence of respondents was high with 7 of the 10 scenarios presented scoring a median of 4 indicating that GDPs were 'confident' in their management. Statistical analysis revealed that GDPs who saw more orthodontic emergencies in the previous six months were more confident when managing the presented scenarios. Other variables such as age, gender, geographic location of practice and number of years practising dentistry were not associated with self-reported confidence.Conclusions Despite GDPs encountering very few orthodontic emergencies in primary care, they appear to be confident in dealing with commonly arising orthodontic emergency situations.

  11. Knee Confidence as it Relates to Self-Reported and Objective Correlates of Knee Osteoarthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skou, Søren T; Rasmussen, Sten; Simonsen, Ole

    2015-01-01

    osteoarthritis (OA). Background Lack of knee confidence is a frequent symptom in patients with knee OA, but little is known of associations between knee confidence and other common correlates of knee OA. Methods Baseline data from 220 patients with knee OA were applied in ordinal regression analyses, with knee...... confidence, assessed using item Q3 of the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, as the dependent variable and self-reported (pain on walking, general health, fear of movement, self-efficacy, function, and previous serious injury) and objective measures (muscle strength, 20-m walk time...

  12. Training and Self-Reported Confidence for Dysphagia Management among Speech-Language Pathologists in the Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, Cynthia R.; Dean-Claytor, Ashli

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The number of children requiring dysphagia management in the schools is increasing. This article reports survey findings relative to speech-language pathologists' (SLPs') training and self-rated confidence to treat children with swallowing and feeding disorders in the schools. Method: Surveys were completed by 222 SLPs representing…

  13. Training and self-reported confidence for dysphagia management among speech-language pathologists in the schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, Cynthia R; Dean-Claytor, Ashli

    2008-04-01

    The number of children requiring dysphagia management in the schools is increasing. This article reports survey findings relative to speech-language pathologists' (SLPs') training and self-rated confidence to treat children with swallowing and feeding disorders in the schools. Surveys were completed by 222 SLPs representing Virginia and its contiguous states. Queries on dysphagia training targeted formal education, on-the-job experiences, and current caseload information. In addition, participants self-rated their confidence to treat dysphagia. Statistically significant relationships between training and self-confidence levels were demonstrated. Specifically, participation in continuing education and currency of educational activities revealed significant and moderately strong correlations to self-reported confidence to treat children with dysphagia in the school setting. Findings support continuing education as a correlate to self-reported confidence to treat dysphagia in the school setting among SLPs in Virginia and its contiguous states. Further research is merited to ascertain if these findings reflect national trends. Quantifiable, cost-effective, and evidenced-based dysphagia training, consultancy, and management models are needed if school-based SLPs are to meet the increasing challenges of their diverse caseloads.

  14. Trends in P Value, Confidence Interval, and Power Analysis Reporting in Health Professions Education Research Reports: A Systematic Appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Eduardo F; Serrano, Valentina P; Rethlefsen, Melissa L; Pandian, T K; Naik, Nimesh D; West, Colin P; Pankratz, V Shane; Cook, David A

    2017-06-20

    To characterize reporting of P values, confidence intervals (CIs), and statistical power in health professions education research (HPER) through manual and computerized analysis of published research reports. The authors searched PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL on May 7, 2016, for comparative research studies. For manual analysis of abstracts and main texts, they randomly sampled 250 HPER reports published in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015, and 100 biomedical research reports published in 1985 and 2015. Automated computerized analysis of abstracts included all HPER reports published 1970-2015. In the 2015 HPER sample, P values were reported in 69/100 abstracts and 94 main texts. CIs were reported in 6 abstracts and 22 main texts. Most P values (≥ 77%) were ≤ .05. Across all years, 60/164 two-group HPER studies had ≥ 80% power to detect a between-group difference of 0.5 standard deviations. From 1985 to 2015, the proportion of HPER abstracts reporting a CI did not change significantly (odds ratio [OR] 2.87; 95% CI 1.04, 7.88) whereas that of main texts reporting a CI increased (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.39, 2.78). Comparison with biomedical studies revealed similar reporting of P values, but more frequent use of CIs in biomedicine. Automated analysis of 56,440 HPER abstracts found 14,867 (26.3%) reporting a P value, 3,024 (5.4%) reporting a CI, and increased reporting of P values and CIs from 1970 to 2015. P values are ubiquitous in HPER, CIs are rarely reported, and most studies are underpowered. Most reported P values would be considered statistically significant.

  15. Does nursing assistant certification increase nursing student's confidence level of basic nursing care when entering a nursing program?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stombaugh, Angie; Judd, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore nursing student's confidence level with basic nursing care when entering the nursing program after implementation of required nursing assistant certification for program admission. In addition, the relationship between being employed as a nursing assistant and confidence level with basic nursing care when entering the nursing program was explored. A Likert-scale survey assessing confidence levels of basic nursing care was sent to 156 nursing students admitted to a nursing program prior to their first nursing course. Confidence level with nursing skills, nursing assistant employment, and length of nursing assistant employment were assessed. Students were most confident in hand washing (M = 5.87, SD = 0.36), gloving and gowning (M =5.46, SD = 0.75), making an unoccupied bed (M = 5.38, SD = 0.88), and oral temperature (M = 5.30, SD = 0.87). Students were least confident in the fitting for cane (M = 1.74, SD = 1.16) and ambulation with crutches on steps (M =1.81, SD = 1.27). Nursing assistant employment increased student confidence with basic nursing care. Nursing programs cannot assume that students are prepared in basic nursing care based on a nursing assistant certification. © 2014.

  16. Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Foot ulcers are a frequent reason for diabetes-related hospitalisation. Clinical training is known to have a beneficial impact on foot ulcer outcomes. Clinical training using simulation techniques has rarely been used in the management of diabetes-related foot complications or chronic wounds. Simulation can be defined as a device or environment that attempts to replicate the real world. The few non-web-based foot-related simulation courses have focused solely on training for a single skill or "part task" (for example, practicing ingrown toenail procedures on models). This pilot study aimed to primarily investigate the effect of a training program using multiple methods of simulation on participants' clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. Methods Sixteen podiatrists participated in a two-day Foot Ulcer Simulation Training (FUST) course. The course included pre-requisite web-based learning modules, practicing individual foot ulcer management part tasks (for example, debriding a model foot ulcer), and participating in replicated clinical consultation scenarios (for example, treating a standardised patient (actor) with a model foot ulcer). The primary outcome measure of the course was participants' pre- and post completion of confidence surveys, using a five-point Likert scale (1 = Unacceptable-5 = Proficient). Participants' knowledge, satisfaction and their perception of the relevance and fidelity (realism) of a range of course elements were also investigated. Parametric statistics were used to analyse the data. Pearson's r was used for correlation, ANOVA for testing the differences between groups, and a paired-sample t-test to determine the significance between pre- and post-workshop scores. A minimum significance level of p < 0.05 was used. Results An overall 42% improvement in clinical confidence was observed following completion of FUST (mean scores 3.10 compared to 4.40, p < 0.05). The lack of an overall significant change in knowledge

  17. Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Régo Patricia M

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Foot ulcers are a frequent reason for diabetes-related hospitalisation. Clinical training is known to have a beneficial impact on foot ulcer outcomes. Clinical training using simulation techniques has rarely been used in the management of diabetes-related foot complications or chronic wounds. Simulation can be defined as a device or environment that attempts to replicate the real world. The few non-web-based foot-related simulation courses have focused solely on training for a single skill or "part task" (for example, practicing ingrown toenail procedures on models. This pilot study aimed to primarily investigate the effect of a training program using multiple methods of simulation on participants' clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. Methods Sixteen podiatrists participated in a two-day Foot Ulcer Simulation Training (FUST course. The course included pre-requisite web-based learning modules, practicing individual foot ulcer management part tasks (for example, debriding a model foot ulcer, and participating in replicated clinical consultation scenarios (for example, treating a standardised patient (actor with a model foot ulcer. The primary outcome measure of the course was participants' pre- and post completion of confidence surveys, using a five-point Likert scale (1 = Unacceptable-5 = Proficient. Participants' knowledge, satisfaction and their perception of the relevance and fidelity (realism of a range of course elements were also investigated. Parametric statistics were used to analyse the data. Pearson's r was used for correlation, ANOVA for testing the differences between groups, and a paired-sample t-test to determine the significance between pre- and post-workshop scores. A minimum significance level of p Results An overall 42% improvement in clinical confidence was observed following completion of FUST (mean scores 3.10 compared to 4.40, p Conclusions This pilot study suggests simulation training

  18. Students who developed logical reasoning skills reported improved confidence in drug dose calculation: Feedback from remedial maths classes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Chris

    2016-06-01

    The safe administration of drugs is a focus of attention in healthcare. It is regarded as acceptable that a formula card or mnemonic can be used to find the correct dose and fill a prescription even though this removes any requirement for performing the underlying computation. Feedback and discussion in class reveal that confidence in arithmetic skills can be low even when students are able to pass the end of semester drug calculation exam. To see if confidence in the understanding and performance of arithmetic for drug calculations can be increased by emphasising student's innate powers of logical reasoning after reflection. Remedial classes offered for students who have declared a dislike or lack of confidence in arithmetic have been developed from student feedback adopting a reasoning by logical step methodology. Students who gave up two hours of their free learning time were observed to engage seriously with the learning methods, focussing on the innate ability to perform logical reasoning necessary for drug calculation problems. Working in small groups allowed some discussion of the route to the answer and this was followed by class discussion and reflection. The results were recorded as weekly self-assessment scores for confidence in calculation. A self-selecting group who successfully completed the end of semester drug calculation exam reported low to moderate confidence in arithmetic. After four weeks focussing on logical skills a significant increase in self-belief was measured. This continued to rise in students who remained in the classes. Many students hold a negative belief regarding their own mathematical abilities. This restricts the learning of arithmetic skills making alternate routes using mnemonics and memorised steps an attractive alternative. Practising stepwise logical reasoning skills consolidated by personal reflection has been effective in developing student's confidence and awareness of their innate powers of deduction supporting an

  19. Commitment, confidence, and concerns: Assessing health care professionals' child maltreatment reporting attitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Rebecca H; Olson-Dorff, Denyse; Reiland, Hannah M; Budzak-Garza, Ann

    2017-02-24

    Given that childhood maltreatment is a significant international public health problem contributing to all major morbidity and mortality determinants, there is need to explore current practices and readiness of health care professionals (HCPs) to assess maltreatment, identify maltreatment risk factors, and complete mandated reporting. HCPs (N=114) completed a child maltreatment mandated reporting measure to assess level of comfort with mandated reporting, commitment to the reporting role, and confidence in the child protection system to take action as needed. Additional questions explored comfort discussing maltreatment and risk factors for maltreatment in a medical setting and knowledge of community resources. Results indicated that HCPs were committed to their mandated reporting role and did not perceive substantial potential negative consequences of reporting. However, there were concerns regarding lack of confidence in the system's ability to respond sufficiently to reports. Despite commitment to the reporting role, results showed that large proportions of HCPs do not routinely screen for maltreatment, feel uncomfortable discussing maltreatment history, and lack knowledge about community resources. Additional training efforts must be prioritized in health care systems to improve short- and long-term health outcomes.

  20. STEM field courses that increase interest, opinions and confidence in conservation- related fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, B. A.; Freeman, A. S.; Donovan, C.; Cooperstein, D.; Foellmer, M.; Ward, A.

    2016-12-01

    Students in the Environmental Studies and Biology programs at Adelphi University, situated in the NYC metropolitan area, have had little exposure to the outdoors or nature and are often reluctant to engage in field activities. We developed three courses to provide outdoor experiences at different levels of intensity, financial and travel/ time commitments. Adelphi in Australia is a three-week field course taught mostly at a marine station that includes day and night hikes, snorkeling on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and independent research. Adelphi in the U.S. Virgin Islands is a one-week field `starter course' focusing on snorkeling and hiking. Observing Nature is an on-campus, once a week course with nature-based readings, weekend hikes and camping. It was developed after Hurricane Sandy revealed a lack of experience and confidence living without some modern infrastructure. We evaluated student opinions, interests and career goals in a survey administered at the start and at the end of the course that focused on knowledge, skills, opinion, and interest in STEM. Opinion questions addressed confidence, awareness of conservation issues, and interest in outdoor activities. The survey confirmed most of our students have a limited relationship with the outdoors when they start our field classes. More than half had never camped. Most had learned about nature through school trips and family. When asked to rank hiking against other activities, the majority regularly placed hiking below `going to the beach' and 'watching a movie'. The post-survey asked how students would apply what they had learned (interest in the environment; staying in the sciences). The generally positive results indicate the courses play an important role in connecting our students with the outdoors, and may have a lasting impact if they in turn connect others or get involved with local conservation programs.

  1. A Partnership Approach to Genetic and Genomic Graduate Nursing Curriculum: Report of a New Course's Impact on Student Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Tamara; Dale, Rosemary

    2016-10-01

    Genetics and genomics have historically not been included in nursing curricula but are increasingly important in health care delivery. A course was developed through a collaboration between nursing and pathology faculty, combining nursing practice and genomics content expertise. Graduate nursing students enrolled in the course self-reported confidence in the 38 American Nurses Association essential genetic and genomic competencies prior to, immediately after, and 9 months after completing the course. Before the course, students reported low confidence across all competencies. Students indicated a significant improvement in confidence in all competencies with an average 2-point improvement on a 5-point Likert scale, both immediately and 9 months after course completion. A course rooted in basic science directly linked to nursing application can prepare nurses to develop a sustained confidence in core competencies. Cross-disciplinary collaborations with faculty who have expertise in genomics may be an effective strategy for nursing programs. [J Nurs Educ. 2016;55(10):574-578.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  2. Student self-reported communication skills, knowledge and confidence across standardised patient, virtual and traditional clinical learning environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quail, Michelle; Brundage, Shelley B; Spitalnick, Josh; Allen, Peter J; Beilby, Janet

    2016-02-27

    Advanced communication skills are vital for allied health professionals, yet students often have limited opportunities in which to develop them. The option of increasing clinical placement hours is unsustainable in a climate of constrained budgets, limited placement availability and increasing student numbers. Consequently, many educators are considering the potentials of alternative training methods, such as simulation. Simulations provide safe, repeatable and standardised learning environments in which students can practice a variety of clinical skills. This study investigated students' self-rated communication skill, knowledge, confidence and empathy across simulated and traditional learning environments. Undergraduate speech pathology students were randomly allocated to one of three communication partners with whom they engaged conversationally for up to 30 min: a patient in a nursing home (n = 21); an elderly trained patient actor (n = 22); or a virtual patient (n = 19). One week prior to, and again following the conversational interaction, participants completed measures of self-reported communication skill, knowledge and confidence (developed by the authors based on the Four Habit Coding Scheme), as well as the Jefferson Scale of Empathy - Health Professionals (student version). All three groups reported significantly higher communication knowledge, skills and confidence post-placement (Median d = .58), while the degree of change did not vary as a function of group membership (Median η (2)  communication skill, knowledge and confidence, though not empathy, following a brief placement in a virtual, standardised or traditional learning environment. The self-reported increases were consistent across the three placement types. It is proposed that the findings from this study provide support for the integration of more sustainable, standardised, virtual patient-based placement models into allied health training programs for the training of

  3. Implementing video cases in clinical paediatric teaching increases medical students' self-assessed confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malon, Michelle; Cortes, Dina; Andersen, Jesper;

    2014-01-01

    in paediatrics in seven centres. A video case library showing children with common clinical conditions was established, and a short video was added to the oral examination. We evaluated students' and internal and external examiners' perceptions by questionnaires. RESULTS: A total of 81% of the students reported...... the intervention, this share was 75% (218/289) (p = 0.06). Furthermore, internal as well as external examiners found video cases valuable, but the use of videos did not change the average examination grade. CONCLUSION: A video case supplement to teaching in clinical paediatrics was considered to be of value...... for teaching. We were successful in establishing an educational resource that students considered useful. Internal and external examiners found that a short video case was a valuable supplementary tool during the oral examination. FUNDING: The University of Copenhagen funded the study. TRIAL REGISTRATION...

  4. Creating meaningful partnerships to increase Indigenous student confidence and motivation towards university: The Stellar Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy Irwin

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Stellar aims to increase the number of Clarence Valley students participating in university by creating meaningful partnerships between schools, business, government, community organisations and individuals. Stellar is able to create these partnerships because it is driven by the Clarence Valley Industry Education Forum (Forum which is strongly connected to the community. Forum members are largely passionate Clarence Valley residents who provide direction, resources, and community links. Southern Cross University (SCU and University of New England (UNE jointly implement Stellar whilst the Forum provides input to the strategic direction and contributes to the implementation of activities. Stellar has formed key relationships with Clarence Valley Indigenous communities facilitated by the Forum’s Aboriginal Education Consultative Group (AECG member who has been instrumental from the beginning in shaping the Stellar operating principles and creating links and support with Indigenous communities. Stellar partners with both Indigenous and non-Indigenous high school students in the Clarence Valley. The initial design of Stellar was heavily focused around tailoring activities to partner with Indigenous students, families and communities. Stellar has become known as a program that works ‘with’ Indigenous people and connections have deepened by joint sharing and participation in Indigenous community activities. Stellar facilitates many opportunities both at school and through university visits for Clarence Valley students. They also learn from local role models ranging from current university students who recently graduated from their high school to professionals from local businesses through interactive activities designed to build knowledge of courses and careers and get students thinking that university is a possible option for them. Stellar also provides information and encouragement for teachers, parents and community so they are equipped to

  5. Appropriateness of reporting statistical results in orthodontics: the dominance of P values over confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polychronopoulou, Argy; Pandis, Nikolaos; Eliades, Theodore

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to search the orthodontic literature and determine the frequency of reporting of confidence intervals (CIs) in orthodontic journals with an impact factor. The six latest issues of the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, the European Journal of Orthodontics, and the Angle Orthodontist were hand searched and the reporting of CIs, P values, and implementation of univariate or multivariate statistical analyses were recorded. Additionally, studies were classified according to the type/design as cross-sectional, case-control, cohort, and clinical trials, and according to the subject of the study as growth/genetics, behaviour/psychology, diagnosis/treatment, and biomaterials/biomechanics. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics followed by univariate examination of statistical associations, logistic regression, and multivariate modelling. CI reporting was very limited and was recorded in only 6 per cent of the included published studies. CI reporting was independent of journal, study area, and design. Studies that used multivariate statistical analyses had a higher probability of reporting CIs compared with those using univariate statistical analyses. Misunderstanding of the use of P values and CIs may have important implications in implementation of research findings in clinical practice.

  6. Trauma Simulation Training Increases Confidence Levels in Prehospital Personnel Performing Life-Saving Interventions in Trauma Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine M. Van Dillen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Limited evidence is available on simulation training of prehospital care providers, specifically the use of tourniquets and needle decompression. This study focused on whether the confidence level of prehospital personnel performing these skills improved through simulation training. Methods. Prehospital personnel from Alachua County Fire Rescue were enrolled in the study over a 2- to 3-week period based on their availability. Two scenarios were presented to them: a motorcycle crash resulting in a leg amputation requiring a tourniquet and an intoxicated patient with a stab wound, who experienced tension pneumothorax requiring needle decompression. Crews were asked to rate their confidence levels before and after exposure to the scenarios. Timing of the simulation interventions was compared with actual scene times to determine applicability of simulation in measuring the efficiency of prehospital personnel. Results. Results were collected from 129 participants. Pre- and postexposure scores increased by a mean of 1.15 (SD 1.32; 95% CI, 0.88–1.42; P<0.001. Comparison of actual scene times with simulated scene times yielded a 1.39-fold difference (95% CI, 1.25–1.55 for Scenario 1 and 1.59 times longer for Scenario 2 (95% CI, 1.43–1.77. Conclusion. Simulation training improved prehospital care providers’ confidence level in performing two life-saving procedures.

  7. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance. Research Report. ETS RR-07-03

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of confidence in relation to cognitive abilities, personality traits, and metacognition. Confidence was measured as it was expressed in answers to each test item during the administration of reading and listening sections of the TOEFL® iBT. The confidence scores were correlated with the accuracy scores from the TOEFL…

  8. An experimental predeployment training program improves self-reported patient treatment confidence and preparedness of Army combat medics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhardt, Robert T; Hermstad, Erik L; Oakes, Michael; Wiegert, Richard S; Oliver, Jeffrey

    2008-01-01

    To develop and assess impact of a focused review of International Trauma Life Support (ITLS) and combat casualty care with hands-on procedure training for U.S. Army medics deploying to Iraq. The setting was a U.S. Army Medical Department Center and School and Camp Eagle, Iraq. Investigators developed and implemented a command-approved prospective educational intervention with a post hoc survey. Subjects completed a three-day course with simulator and live-tissue procedure laboratories. At deployment's end, medics were surveyed for experience, confidence, and preparedness in treating various casualty severity levels. Investigators used two-tailed t-test with unequal variance for continuous data and chi-square for categorical data. Twenty-nine medics deployed. Eight completed the experimental program. Twenty-one of 25 (84%) available medics completed the survey including six of the eight (75%) experimental medics. The experimental group reported significantly greater levels of preparedness and confidence treating "minimal," "delayed," and "immediate" casualties at arrival in Iraq. These differences dissipated progressively over the time course of the deployment. This experimental program increased combat medic confidence and perceived level of preparedness in treating several patient severity levels. Further research is warranted to determine if the experimental intervention objectively improves patient care quality and translates into lives saved early in deployment.

  9. Sample Preparation Report of the Fourth OPCW Confidence Building Exercise on Biomedical Sample Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Udey, R. N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Corzett, T. H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Alcaraz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-07-03

    Following the successful completion of the 3rd biomedical confidence building exercise (February 2013 – March 2013), which included the analysis of plasma and urine samples spiked at low ppb levels as part of the exercise scenario, another confidence building exercise was targeted to be conducted in 2014. In this 4th exercise, it was desired to focus specifically on the analysis of plasma samples. The scenario was designed as an investigation of an alleged use of chemical weapons where plasma samples were collected, as plasma has been reported to contain CWA adducts which remain present in the human body for several weeks (Solano et al. 2008). In the 3rd exercise most participants used the fluoride regeneration method to analyze for the presence of nerve agents in plasma samples. For the 4th biomedical exercise it was decided to evaluate the analysis of human plasma samples for the presence/absence of the VX adducts and aged adducts to blood proteins (e.g., VX-butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) and aged BuChE adducts using a pepsin digest technique to yield nonapeptides; or equivalent). As the aging of VX-BuChE adducts is relatively slow (t1/2 = 77 hr at 37 °C [Aurbek et al. 2009]), soman (GD), which ages much more quickly (t1/2 = 9 min at 37 °C [Masson et al. 2010]), was used to simulate an aged VX sample. Additional objectives of this exercise included having laboratories assess novel OP-adducted plasma sample preparation techniques and analytical instrumentation methodologies, as well as refining/designating the reporting formats for these new techniques.

  10. Technical Report: Algorithm and Implementation for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLoughlin, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-01-11

    This report describes the design and implementation of an algorithm for estimating relative microbial abundances, together with confidence limits, using data from metagenomic DNA sequencing. For the background behind this project and a detailed discussion of our modeling approach for metagenomic data, we refer the reader to our earlier technical report, dated March 4, 2014. Briefly, we described a fully Bayesian generative model for paired-end sequence read data, incorporating the effects of the relative abundances, the distribution of sequence fragment lengths, fragment position bias, sequencing errors and variations between the sampled genomes and the nearest reference genomes. A distinctive feature of our modeling approach is the use of a Chinese restaurant process (CRP) to describe the selection of genomes to be sampled, and thus the relative abundances. The CRP component is desirable for fitting abundances to reads that may map ambiguously to multiple targets, because it naturally leads to sparse solutions that select the best representative from each set of nearly equivalent genomes.

  11. Self-reported confidence in prescribing skills correlates poorly with assessed competence in fourth-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, David J; Tichelaar, Jelle; van Agtmael, Michiel A; de Vries, Theo P G M; Richir, Milan C

    2015-07-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between students' self-reported confidence and their objectively assessed competence in prescribing. We assessed the competence in several prescribing skills of 403 fourth-year medical students at the VU University Medical Center, the Netherlands, in a formative simulated examination on a 10-point scale (1 = very low; 10 = very high). Afterwards, the students were asked to rate their confidence in performing each of the prescribing skills on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = very unsure; 5 = very confident). Their assessments were then compared with their self-confidence ratings. Students' overall prescribing performance was adequate (7.0 ± 0.8), but they lacked confidence in 2 essential prescribing skills. Overall, there was a weak positive correlation (r = 0.2, P confidence and actual competence. Therefore, this study suggests that self-reported confidence is not an accurate measure of prescribing competence, and that students lack insight into their own strengths and weaknesses in prescribing. Future studies should focus on developing validated and reliable instruments so that students can assess their prescribing skills.

  12. Undergraduate baccalaureate nursing students' self-reported confidence in learning about patient safety in the classroom and clinical settings: an annual cross-sectional study (2010-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukewich, Julia; Edge, Dana S; Tranmer, Joan; Raymond, June; Miron, Jennifer; Ginsburg, Liane; VanDenKerkhof, Elizabeth

    2015-05-01

    Given the increasing incidence of adverse events and medication errors in healthcare settings, a greater emphasis is being placed on the integration of patient safety competencies into health professional education. Nurses play an important role in preventing and minimizing harm in the healthcare setting. Although patient safety concepts are generally incorporated within many undergraduate nursing programs, the level of students' confidence in learning about patient safety remains unclear. Self-reported patient safety competence has been operationalized as confidence in learning about various dimensions of patient safety. The present study explores nursing students' self-reported confidence in learning about patient safety during their undergraduate baccalaureate nursing program. Cross-sectional study with a nested cohort component conducted annually from 2010 to 2013. Participants were recruited from one Canadian university with a four-year baccalaureate of nursing science program. All students enrolled in the program were eligible to participate. The Health Professional Education in Patient Safety Survey was administered annually. The Health Professional Education in Patient Safety Survey captures how the six dimensions of the Canadian Patient Safety Institute Safety Competencies Framework and broader patient safety issues are addressed in health professional education, as well as respondents' self-reported comfort in speaking up about patient safety issues. In general, nursing students were relatively confident in what they were learning about the clinical dimensions of patient safety, but they were less confident about the sociocultural aspects of patient safety. Confidence in what they were learning in the clinical setting about working in teams, managing adverse events and responding to adverse events declined in upper years. The majority of students did not feel comfortable speaking up about patient safety issues. The nested cohort analysis confirmed these

  13. The impact of a structured clinical training course on interns' self-reported confidence with core clinical urology skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, C; Norton, S; Nolan, J M; Whelan, C; Sullivan, J F; Quinlan, M; Sheikh, M; Mc Dermott, T E D; Lynch, T H; Manecksha, R P

    2017-05-04

    Undergraduate training in core urology skills is lacking in many Irish training programmes. Our aim was to assess newly qualified doctors' experience and confidence with core urological competencies. A questionnaire survey covering exposure to urology and confidence with core clinical skills was circulated to all candidates. The group then attended a skills course covering male/female catheterisation, insertion of three-way catheters, bladder irrigation and management of long-term suprapubic catheters. The groups were re-surveyed following the course. Forty-five interns completed the pre-course questionnaire (group 1) and 27 interns completed the post-course questionnaire (group 2). 24/45 (53%) had no experience of catheter insertion on a patient during their undergraduate training. 26/45 (58%) were unsupervised during their first catheter insertion. 12/45 (27%) had inserted a female catheter. 18/45 (40%) had inserted a three-way catheter. 12/45 (27%) had changed a suprapubic catheter. 40/45 (89%) in group 1 reported 'good' or 'excellent' confidence with male urinary catheterisation, compared to 25/27 (92.5%) in group 2. 18/45 (40%) in group 1 reported 'none' or 'poor' confidence with female catheterisation, compared to 7/27 (26%) in group 2. 22/45 (49%) in group 1 reported 'none' or 'poor' confidence with insertion of three-way catheters, compared to 2/27 (7%) in group 2. 32/45 (71%) in group 1 reported 'none' or 'poor' confidence in changing long-term suprapubic catheters, falling to 3/27 (11%) in group 2. This study raises concerns about newly qualified doctors' practical experience in urology. We suggest that this course improves knowledge and confidence with practical urology skills and should be incorporated into intern induction.

  14. Risk perception, risk management and safety assessment: what can governments do to increase public confidence in their vaccine system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, Noni E; Smith, Jennifer; Appleton, Mary

    2012-09-01

    For decades vaccine program managers and governments have devoted many resources to addressing public vaccine concerns, vaccine risk perception, risk management and safety assessment. Despite ever growing evidence that vaccines are safe and effective, public concerns continue. Education and evidence based scientific messages have not ended concerns. How can governments and programs more effectively address the public's vaccine concerns and increase confidence in the vaccine safety system? Vaccination hesitation has been attributed to concerns about vaccine safety, perceptions of high vaccine risks and low disease risk and consequences. Even when the public believes vaccines are important for protection many still have concerns about vaccine safety. This overview explores how heuristics affect public perception of vaccines and vaccine safety, how the public finds and uses vaccine information, and then proposes strategies for changes in the approach to vaccine safety communications. Facts and evidence confirming the safety of vaccines are not enough. Vaccine beliefs and behaviours must be shaped. This will require a shift in the what, when, how and why of vaccine risk and benefit communication content and practice. A change to a behavioural change strategy such as the WHO COMBI program that has been applied to disease eradication efforts is suggested.

  15. Visual Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-10-14

    Visual confidence refers to an observer's ability to judge the accuracy of her perceptual decisions. Even though confidence judgments have been recorded since the early days of psychophysics, only recently have they been recognized as essential for a deeper understanding of visual perception. The reluctance to study visual confidence may have come in part from obtaining convincing experimental evidence in favor of metacognitive abilities rather than just perceptual sensitivity. Some effort has thus been dedicated to offer different experimental paradigms to study visual confidence in humans and nonhuman animals. To understand the origins of confidence judgments, investigators have developed two competing frameworks. The approach based on signal decision theory is popular but fails to account for response times. In contrast, the approach based on accumulation of evidence models naturally includes the dynamics of perceptual decisions. These models can explain a range of results, including the apparently paradoxical dissociation between performance and confidence that is sometimes observed.

  16. Increasing Confidence in a Statistics Course: Assessing Students' Beliefs and Using the Data to Design Curriculum with Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huchting, Karen

    2013-01-01

    Students were involved in the curriculum design of a statistics course. They completed a pre-assessment of their confidence and skills using quantitative methods and statistics. Scores were aggregated, and anonymous data were shown on the first night of class. Using these data, the course was designed, demonstrating evidence-based instructional…

  17. Making English a "Habit": Increasing Confidence, Motivation, and Ability of EFL Students through Cross-Cultural, Computer-Assisted Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wen-chi Vivian; Marek, Michael

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the relationships among the three essential language-related components--motivation, confidence, and ability--following a series of live videoconference interactions between Taiwanese EFL students and a native speaker. 227 students enrolled in the five advanced conversation classes at a private technical university in central…

  18. Increasing Confidence in a Statistics Course: Assessing Students' Beliefs and Using the Data to Design Curriculum with Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huchting, Karen

    2013-01-01

    Students were involved in the curriculum design of a statistics course. They completed a pre-assessment of their confidence and skills using quantitative methods and statistics. Scores were aggregated, and anonymous data were shown on the first night of class. Using these data, the course was designed, demonstrating evidence-based instructional…

  19. Earning public trust and confidence: Requisites for managing radioactive wastes. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    The Task Force on Radioactive Waste Management was created in April 1991 by former Secretary James D. Watkins, who asked the group to analyze the critical institutional question of how the Department of Energy (DOE) might strengthen public trust and confidence in the civilian radioactive waste management program. The panel met eight times over a period of 27 months and heard formal presentations from nearly 100 representatives of state and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and senior DOE Headquarters and Field Office managers. The group also commissioned a variety of studies from independent experts, contracted with the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration to hold workshops on designing and leading trust-evoking organizations, and carried out one survey of parties affected by the Department`s radioactive waste management activities and a second one of DOE employees and contractors.

  20. Medical student self-reported confidence in obstetrics and gynaecology: development of a core clinical competencies document

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Clinical competencies in obstetrics and gynaecology have not been clearly defined for Australian medical students, the growing numbers of which may impact clinical teaching. Our aim was to administer and validate a competencies list, for self-evaluation by medical students of their confidence to manage common clinical tasks in obstetrics and gynaecology; to evaluate students’ views on course changes that may result from increasing class sizes. Methods A draft list of competencies was peer-reviewed, and discussed at two student focus groups. The resultant list was administered as part of an 81 item online survey. Results Sixty-eight percent (N = 172) of those eligible completed the survey. Most respondents (75.8%) agreed or strongly agreed that they felt confident and well equipped to recognise and manage most common and important obstetric and gynaecological conditions. Confidence was greater for women, and for those who received a higher assessment grade. Free-text data highlight reasons for lack of clinical experience that may impact perceived confidence. Conclusions The document listing competencies for medical students and educators is useful for discussions around a national curriculum in obstetrics and gynaecology in medical schools, including the best methods of delivery, particularly in the context of increasing student numbers. PMID:23634953

  1. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  2. Reducing risk and increasing confidence of decision making at a lower cost: In-situ pXRF assessment of metal-contaminated sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouillon, Marek; Taylor, Mark P; Dong, Chenyin

    2017-10-01

    This study evaluates the in-situ use of field portable X-ray Fluorescence (pXRF) for metal-contaminated site assessments, and assesses the advantages of increased sampling to reduce risk, and increase confidence of decision making at a lower cost. Five metal-contaminated sites were assessed using both in-situ pXRF and ex-situ inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) analyses at various sampling resolutions. Twenty second in-situ pXRF measurements of Mn, Zn and Pb were corrected using a subset of parallel ICP-MS measurements taken at each site. Field and analytical duplicates revealed sampling as the major contributor (>95% variation) to measurement uncertainties. This study shows that increased sampling led to several benefits including more representative site characterisation, higher soil-metal mapping resolution, reduced uncertainty around the site mean, and reduced sampling uncertainty. Real time pXRF data enabled efficient, on-site decision making for further judgemental sampling, without the need to return to the site. Additionally, in-situ pXRF was more cost effective than the current approach of ex-situ sampling and ICP-MS analysis, even with higher sampling at each site. Lastly, a probabilistic site assessment approach was applied to demonstrate the advantages of integrating estimated measurement uncertainties into site reporting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Local Authorities' Experiences of Improving Parental Confidence in the Special Educational Needs Process. LGA Research Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Richard; Macleod, Shona; Jeffes, Jennifer; Atkinson, Mary

    2010-01-01

    How can we help parents to understand the special educational needs (SEN) process? What sort of information and support do they need? This report details the results of research with SEN officers (or their equivalent) in 26 local authorities, covering: (1) the referral process; (2) early identification and intervention; (3) local authority and…

  4. A dissociation in judgements of confidence in people with dandruff based on self-reports compared to reports from other observers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godbehere, A; McDonald, L; Baines, F; Sutherland, C A M; Andrews, T J

    2017-08-01

    It is not clear how well evaluations made by other people correspond with self-evaluations of esteem or confidence. To address this question, we compared measurements of confidence in participants with and without dandruff. Participants with dandruff were significantly different from healthy control participants on a quality of life measure of scalp dermatitis, but not on self-evaluations of esteem or confidence. To determine whether there were differences in the evaluation of confidence by others, both groups of participants were videoed while they prepared for or gave a presentation in an interview scenario. Raters, who were unfamiliar with the identities of the participants, evaluated confidence from the muted videos. In contrast to their self-evaluations, male participants with dandruff were rated as having lower confidence compared to participants who reported a healthy scalp. These findings reveal a difference between explicit and implicit measures of self-esteem in men compared to women with dandruff. © 2017 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

  5. Increasing Patient Safety Event Reporting in an Emergency Medicine Residency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steen, Sven; Jaeger, Cassie; Price, Lindsay; Griffen, David

    2017-01-01

    Patient safety event reporting is an important component for fostering a culture of safety. Our tertiary care hospital utilizes a computerized patient safety event reporting system that has been historically underutilized by residents and faculty, despite encouragement of its use. The objective of this quality project was to increase patient safety event reporting within our Emergency Medicine residency program. Knowledge of event reporting was evaluated with a survey. Eighteen residents and five faculty participated in a formal educational session on event reporting followed by feedback every two months on events reported and actions taken. The educational session included description of which events to report and the logistics of accessing the reporting system. Participants received a survey after the educational intervention to assess resident familiarity and comfort with using the system. The total number of events reported was obtained before and after the educational session. After the educational session, residents reported being more confident in knowing what to report as a patient safety event, knowing how to report events, how to access the reporting tool, and how to enter a patient safety event. In the 14 months preceding the educational session, an average of 0.4 events were reported per month from the residency. In the nine months following the educational session, an average of 3.7 events were reported per month by the residency. In addition, the reported events resulted in meaningful actions taken by the hospital to improve patient safety, which were shared with the residents. Improvement efforts including an educational session, feedback to the residency of events reported, and communication of improvements resulting from reported events successfully increased the frequency of safety event reporting in an Emergency Medicine residency.

  6. Technical Report: Benchmarking for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLoughlin, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-01-22

    The software application “MetaQuant” was developed by our group at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). It is designed to profile microbial populations in a sample using data from whole-genome shotgun (WGS) metagenomic DNA sequencing. Several other metagenomic profiling applications have been described in the literature. We ran a series of benchmark tests to compare the performance of MetaQuant against that of a few existing profiling tools, using real and simulated sequence datasets. This report describes our benchmarking procedure and results.

  7. GPs' confidence in caring for their patients on the autism spectrum: an online self-report study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unigwe, Silvana; Buckley, Carole; Crane, Laura; Kenny, Lorcan; Remington, Anna; Pellicano, Elizabeth

    2017-06-01

    In the UK, GPs play a key role in the identification and management of children, young people, and adults on the autism spectrum, but there is a paucity of research on GPs' perceptions of working with these patients. To understand GPs' perceived self-efficacy in identifying and managing their patients on the autism spectrum, and the factors affecting this. An online self-report survey was developed for completion by GPs across the UK. A total of 304 GPs in the UK took part. The survey collected responses on participants' background, training, and experience, both as a GP and with regard to autism, and included a 22-item knowledge of autism questionnaire, a 14-item self-efficacy scale targeting GPs' perceived confidence in identifying and managing their autistic patients, and an open question eliciting participants' experiences of working with autistic people. In total, 39.5% (n = 120) of GP participants reported never having received formal training in autism. Despite demonstrating good knowledge of its key features, participants reported limited confidence in their abilities to identify and manage autistic patients, with many citing a number of barriers that overwhelmingly focused on perceived failings of the current healthcare system (such as a lack of clarity around referral pathways). There is an urgent need for improved local specialist service provision alongside clearer referral pathways for diagnosis to improve both GPs' confidence in caring for their autistic patients and the healthcare experiences of autistic patients and their families. Local clinical commissioning groups are best served to assist GPs in ensuring that they can reliably detect the condition and make appropriate provisions for support. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  8. PRA in Design: Increasing Confidence in Pre-Operational Assessments of Risks (Results of a Joint NASA/NRC Workshop)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngblood, Robert; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Siu, Nathan

    2010-01-01

    In late 2009, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) jointly organized a workshop to discuss technical issues associated with application of risk assessments to early phases of system design. The workshop, which was coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory, involved invited presentations from a number of PRA experts in the aerospace and nuclear fields and subsequent discussion to address the following questions: (a) What technical issues limit decision-makers' confidence in PRA results, especially at a pre-operational phase of the system life cycle? (b) What is being done to address these issues'? (c) What more can be done ? The workshop resulted in participant observations and suggestions on several technical issues, including the pursuit of non-traditional approaches to risk assessment and the verification and validation of risk models. The workshop participants also identified several important non-technical issues, including risk communication with decision makers, and the integration of PRA into the overall design process.

  9. Many Private Colleges Report Small Tuition Increases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geraghty, Mary

    1997-01-01

    Many private colleges are reporting the lowest percentage tuition increases in a decade or more, four to five% at many institutions, but most increases still outpace inflation. A major reason for increasing tuition is to meet rising demand for student aid. Also, many institutional expenses are higher than for the average consumer, and facilities…

  10. The Five 'R's' for Developing Trusted Software Frameworks to increase confidence in, and maximise reuse of, Open Source Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Ryan; Gross, Lutz; Wyborn, Lesley; Evans, Ben; Klump, Jens

    2015-04-01

    Recent investments in HPC, cloud and Petascale data stores, have dramatically increased the scale and resolution that earth science challenges can now be tackled. These new infrastructures are highly parallelised and to fully utilise them and access the large volumes of earth science data now available, a new approach to software stack engineering needs to be developed. The size, complexity and cost of the new infrastructures mean any software deployed has to be reliable, trusted and reusable. Increasingly software is available via open source repositories, but these usually only enable code to be discovered and downloaded. As a user it is hard for a scientist to judge the suitability and quality of individual codes: rarely is there information on how and where codes can be run, what the critical dependencies are, and in particular, on the version requirements and licensing of the underlying software stack. A trusted software framework is proposed to enable reliable software to be discovered, accessed and then deployed on multiple hardware environments. More specifically, this framework will enable those who generate the software, and those who fund the development of software, to gain credit for the effort, IP, time and dollars spent, and facilitate quantification of the impact of individual codes. For scientific users, the framework delivers reviewed and benchmarked scientific software with mechanisms to reproduce results. The trusted framework will have five separate, but connected components: Register, Review, Reference, Run, and Repeat. 1) The Register component will facilitate discovery of relevant software from multiple open source code repositories. The registration process of the code should include information about licensing, hardware environments it can be run on, define appropriate validation (testing) procedures and list the critical dependencies. 2) The Review component is targeting on the verification of the software typically against a set of

  11. Effectiveness of asthma principles and practice course in increasing nurse practitioner knowledge and confidence in the use of asthma clinical guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor-Fishwick, Judith C; Okafor, Maureen; Fletcher, Monica

    2015-04-01

    The Asthma Principle and Practice (APP) course, an evidence-based blended distance-learning educational encounter, was designed to aid in the dissemination of the 2007 asthma clinical guidelines (EPR-3) and priority messages, increase knowledge of content of the guidelines as well as create an environment to enable participants to apply knowledge and skills into clinical practice. Students received a self-study binder 6-week period prior to attendance at an interactive study day. The APP is grounded in adult education principle and practices. A questionnaire was completed before reading the study binder and post study day to measure demographic variables as well as awareness of and changes in knowledge and confidence in key attributes of the clinical guidelines including patient education. The results showed that by taking the APP course confidence levels related to knowledge of asthma and its management increased with specific reference to the asthma clinical guidelines. Confidence in the use of patient education/communication strategies improved as well as the use of pulmonary function tests and the interpretation of test results. Nurse practitioners are an important audience to target in the dissemination of clinical guidelines and benefit from educational materials based on adult education strategies. ©2014 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

  12. CNOOC Reports Significant Increase in 2006 Profits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), the country's No.3 oil producer,recently announced pretax profits jumped 24 percent to 48.1 billion yuan (US$6.2 billion) in 2006. The offshore oil giant reported 60.1 percent increase in pretax profits, totaling 38.8 billion yuan (US$5 billion) in 2005. Analysts said the dropped oil prices in the second half of last year had greatly affected the company's profit growth.

  13. Categorical Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-07-01

    MRC/APU, 15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge, CB1 1EF, U.K. . r OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH TECHNICAL REPORTS DISTRIBUTION LIST CDR Paul R. Chatelier Physiology...Psychology Unit Medical Research Council Or. Joseph Zeidner 15 Chaucer Road Technical Director Cambridge, CB2 2EF U.S. Army Research Institute ENGLAND 5001

  14. Tc-99m sestamibi parathyroid gland scintigraphy: added value of Tc-99m pertechnetate thyroid imaging for increasing interpretation confidence and avoiding additional testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Daniel K; Nwoke, Franklin; Goldfarb, Richard C; Ongseng, Fukiat

    2013-01-01

    To evaluate the benefit of adding a pertechnetate parathyroid scan (dual-isotope imaging) in the interpretation of sestamibi dual-phase parathyroid scintigraphy. One hundred and sixteen dual Tc-99m sestamibi (MIBI) and Tc-99m pertechnetate subtraction parathyroid studies, performed between January 2000 and February 2006, were retrospectively reviewed. Dual-phase technetium sestamibi examinations were initially interpreted, with blinding to the technetium pertechnetate findings. Subsequently, technetium pertechnetate scan findings were added, and changes in interpretation were recorded. By adding Tc-99m pertechnetate imaging, the interpretation of 17 scans (17/116=14.6%) was substantially altered. This included 5 scans (4%) that changed from negative to positive and 9 scans (8%) that changed from equivocal to positive, excluding ectopic tissue and directing minimally invasive surgery, without the need for further imaging, such as ultrasound, in 12% of cases. One examination changed from positive to negative. In addition, 2 scans changed from equivocal to negative, necessitating further preoperative imaging for the evaluation of additional pathology such as thyroid nodules and lymph nodes and the consideration of hyperplasia. Among the remaining 99 patients, Tc-99m pertechnetate scans may also have contributed to the diagnosis in the 66 positive Tc-99m MIBI scans by increasing confidence in the interpretation and obviating additional imaging. Ten cases remained equivocal. By adding Tc-99m pertechnetate imaging, scan interpretation was changed in 14.6% of cases, and interpretation confidence was enhanced in all but 10 remaining equivocal cases. The addition of a dual-isotope subtraction also eliminated the need for additional testing, such as ultrasound, in 12% of our cases. Increased confidence in interpretation that comes with dual-isotope subtraction may come at the cost of slight lengthening of imaging time but likely simplifies preoperative localization and

  15. The effect of ankle-foot orthoses on self-reported balance confidence in persons with chronic poststroke hemiplegia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zissimopoulos, Angelika; Fatone, Stefania; Gard, Steven

    2014-04-01

    One intervention often used to address physical impairments post stroke is an ankle-foot orthosis. Ankle-foot orthoses may improve walking speed, stride length, and gait pattern. However, effects on balance, crucial for safe ambulation, are thus far inconclusive. One aspect of balance shown to contribute to functional ability is self-efficacy. Self-efficacy, defined as the belief in one's ability to succeed in particular situations, has been shown to be more strongly associated with activity and participation (as defined by the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health) than physical performance measures of gait or balance. We investigated whether self-efficacy, or balance confidence when referred to in the context of balance capabilities, is improved with ankle-foot orthosis use. Repeated measures study design. Balance confidence was measured using the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale in 15 persons with chronic poststroke hemiplegia, with and without their regular ankle-foot orthosis. Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale scores were significantly higher (p ≤ 0.01) for the ankle-foot orthosis condition compared to no ankle-foot orthosis. One mechanism by which ankle-foot orthosis use may influence balance is improved balance confidence. Future work should explore the specific mechanisms underlying this improvement in self-efficacy. Clinical relevance Self-efficacy may be an important factor to consider when evaluating functioning post stroke. Rehabilitative interventions that improve balance confidence may help restore participation and overall functioning in pathological populations, particularly in the fall-prone poststroke population. Study results provide evidence for improvements in balance confidence with ankle-foot orthosis use.

  16. A model for developing disability confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara

    2017-05-15

    Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.

  17. Research on Relationship of Spatial Visualization and Confidence to Male/Female Mathematics Achievement in Grades 6-8. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennema, Elizabeth

    Reported are two separate but related longitudinal studies of two variables strongly associated with sex-related differences in mathematics achievement and enrollment, namely spatial visualization and confidence in learning mathematics. First, boys (N=33) and girls (N=36) in grades 6-8 who were discrepant in their spatial and verbal skills were…

  18. The importance of quality assurance/quality control of diagnostics to increase the confidence in global foot-and-mouth disease control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Clercq, K; Goris, N; Barnett, P V; MacKay, D K

    2008-01-01

    The last decade international trade in animals and animal products was liberated and confidence in this global trade can increase only if appropriate control measures are applied. As foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) diagnostics will play an essential role in this respect, the Food and Agriculture Organization European Commission for the Control of Foot-and-Mouth Disease (EUFMD) co-ordinates, in collaboration with the European Commission, several programmes to increase the quality of FMD diagnostics. A quality assurance (QA) system is deemed essential for laboratories involved in certifying absence of FMDV or antibodies against the virus. Therefore, laboratories are encouraged to validate their diagnostic tests fully and to install a continuous quality control (QC) monitoring system. Knowledge of performance characteristics of diagnostics is essential to interpret results correctly and to calculate sample rates in regional surveillance campaigns. Different aspects of QA/QC of classical and new FMD virological and serological diagnostics are discussed in respect to the EU FMD directive (2003/85/EC). We recommended accepting trade certificates only from laboratories participating in international proficiency testing on a regular basis.

  19. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... new skill and milestone, kids can develop increasing confidence. Parents can help by giving kids lots of opportunities to practice and master their skills, letting kids make mistakes and being there to boost their spirits so they keep trying. Respond with ...

  20. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-04

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence.

  1. Embedding academic-professional collaborations that build student confidence for essay writing: Student perceptions and quality outcomes. A Practice Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliey Beckman

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Although the ability for effective written communication is an essential graduate attribute, there is misalignment of student perceptions of expected writing styles and levels between secondary and tertiary education.  This problem may be compounded by an apparent dearth of hands-on writing and related learning modalities for the vast majority of transiting students.  This may be due to a range of interacting factors, including the increased numbers and concomitant diversity of students entering higher education, a reluctance among academics to hand over teaching to professional staff, and a lack of opportunities to establish collaborations between academics and co-curricular professions, namely library and learning skills professionals. This paper reports on the development, implementation and outcomes of a collaboration among these groups on an essay writing intervention for commencing students in a very large enrolment first year science subject.

  2. Prediction Models of Retention Indices for Increased Confidence in Structural Elucidation during Complex Matrix Analysis: Application to Gas Chromatography Coupled with High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossin, Eric; Martin, Elyette; Diana, Pierrick; Castellon, Antonio; Monge, Aurelien; Pospisil, Pavel; Bentley, Mark; Guy, Philippe A

    2016-08-02

    Monitoring of volatile and semivolatile compounds was performed using gas chromatography (GC) coupled to high-resolution electron ionization mass spectrometry, using both headspace and liquid injection modes. A total of 560 reference compounds, including 8 odd n-alkanes, were analyzed and experimental linear retention indices (LRI) were determined. These reference compounds were randomly split into training (n = 401) and test (n = 151) sets. LRI for all 552 reference compounds were also calculated based upon computational Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) models, using two independent approaches RapidMiner (coupled to Dragon) and ACD/ChromGenius software. Correlation coefficients for experimental versus predicted LRI values calculated for both training and test set compounds were calculated at 0.966 and 0.949 for RapidMiner and at 0.977 and 0.976 for ACD/ChromGenius, respectively. In addition, the cross-validation correlation was calculated at 0.96 from RapidMiner and the residual standard error value obtained from ACD/ChromGenius was 53.635. These models were then used to predict LRI values for several thousand compounds reported present in tobacco and tobacco-related fractions, plus a range of specific flavor compounds. It was demonstrated that using the mean of the LRI values predicted by RapidMiner and ACD/ChromGenius, in combination with accurate mass data, could enhance the confidence level for compound identification from the analysis of complex matrixes, particularly when the two predicted LRI values for a compound were in close agreement. Application of this LRI modeling approach to matrixes with unknown composition has already enabled the confirmation of 23 postulated compounds, demonstrating its ability to facilitate compound identification in an analytical workflow. The goal is to reduce the list of putative candidates to a reasonable relevant number that can be obtained and measured for confirmation.

  3. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    King, Bruce Hardison [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stein, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  4. Signatures of a statistical computation in the human sense of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Joshua I.; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    Summary Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one’s beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the estimated probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and for erroneous choices, that confidence decreased with increasing evidence strength. We show that these patterns lawfully arise when statistical confidence qualifies a decision. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence. PMID:27151640

  5. Report: Changes Needed to Improve Public Confidence in EPA’s Implementation of the Food Quality Protection Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #2006-P-00003, October 19, 2005. EPA allowed public comment periods when developing the Agency’s major FQPA science policy papers, and developed and implemented a public comment policy for all pesticide reregistrations in 2002.

  6. Self-reported maternal parenting style and confidence and infant temperament in a multi-ethnic community: results from the Born in Bradford cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prady, Stephanie L; Kiernan, Kathleen; Fairley, Lesley; Wilson, Sarah; Wright, John

    2014-03-01

    Ethnic minority children in the United Kingdom often experience health disadvantage. Parenting influences children's current and future health, but little is known about whether parenting behaviours and mother's perception of her infant vary by ethnicity. Using the Born in Bradford (BiB) birth cohort, which is located in an ethnically diverse and economically deprived UK city, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of mother's self-reported parenting confidence, self-efficacy, hostility and warmth, and infant temperament at six months of age. We examined responses from women of Pakistani (N = 554) and White British (N = 439) origin. Pakistani mothers reported feeling more confident about their abilities as a parent. Significantly fewer Pakistani women adopted a hostile approach to parenting, an effect that was attenuated after adjustment for socioeconomic status and mental health. Overall, women with more self-efficacious, warm and less hostile parenting styles reported significantly fewer problems with their infant's temperaments. Of women with higher self-efficacy parenting styles, Pakistani mothers were significantly more likely than White British mothers to report more problematic infant temperaments, although absolute differences were small. It is unlikely that the ethnic variation seen in children's cognitive and behavioural outcomes in childhood is attributable to differences in parenting or infant characteristics reported at six months.

  7. Self-Reported Student Confidence in Troubleshooting Ability Increases after Completion of an Inquiry-Based PCR Practical

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Anthony L.; Snow, Elizabeth T.; Binns, Henrica; Cook, Peta S.

    2015-01-01

    Inquiry-based learning (IBL) activities are complementary to the processes of laboratory discovery, as both are focused on producing new findings through research and inquiry. Here, we describe the results of student surveys taken pre- and postpractical to an IBL undergraduate practical on PCR. Our analysis focuses primarily student perceptions of…

  8. Survey mode matters: adults' self-reported statistical confidence, ability to obtain health information, and perceptions of patient-health-care provider communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Lorraine S; Chisolm, Deena J; Abdel-Rasoul, Mahmoud; DeVoe, Jennifer E

    2013-08-01

    This study examined adults' self-reported understanding and formatting preferences of medical statistics, confidence in self-care and ability to obtain health advice or information, and perceptions of patient-health-care provider communication measured through dual survey modes (random digital dial and mail). Even while controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, significant differences in regard to adults' responses to survey variables emerged as a function of survey mode. While the analyses do not allow us to pinpoint the underlying causes of the differences observed, they do suggest that mode of administration should be carefully adjusted for and considered.

  9. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The M...

  10. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  11. Methods to Increase Consumer Confidence in Premium Olive Oils%增加消费者对顶级橄榄油品质信心的方法

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Steve ZELENAK

    2011-01-01

    由消费拉动的高级橄榄油市场的快速增长导致了消费者信任度下降,而伪劣产品也导致了部分的经济损失。针对这个问题,美国农业部(USDA)最近发布了60年来橄榄油标准的首次改变。执行这些非强制性标准耗时且花费不菲,同时一般需要实验室的分析。本文描述了如何利用分光光度计/荧光计方法保障产品的最高品级。该方法无需样品预处理,价格低廉,仅需少量培训。%A rapidly growing consumer-driven market for premium olive oils has led to low consumer confidence and financial losses due to counterfeit products.In response,the USDA recently released the first change in olive oil standards in over 60 years.Compliance with these voluntary standards is time consuming,costly,and generally requires analysis in a laboratory.This article describes how spectrophotometric/fluorometric methods can help ensure the highest grade of product,requiring no sample preparation,minimal training,and low cost.

  12. Strengthening Public Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, John J.

    Board members and administrators can build public confidence in their schools by taking every opportunity to communicate positive attitudes about the people in the schools. As leaders, they have the responsibility to use people power to promote the schools. If school employees feel good about their jobs, they will build confidence within the…

  13. Quantitative analysis of T-wave morphology increases confidence in drug-induced cardiac repolarization abnormalities: evidence from the investigational IKr inhibitor Lu 35-138

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Graff, Claus; Matz, Jørgen; Christensen, Ellen B;

    2009-01-01

    to determine a combined measure of repolarization morphology (morphology combination score [MCS]), based on asymmetry, flatness, and notching. Replicate measurements were used to determine reliable change and study power for both measures. Lu 35-138 increased the QTc interval with corresponding changes in T...... was 93%. As a covariate to the assessment of QT interval liability, MCS offered important additive information to the effect of Lu 35-138 on cardiac repolarization....

  14. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  15. Trust vs. Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    defined. Although there are many different definitions of trust, our definition (Adams and Webb, 2003) is as follows: Trust is a psychological state...Judgments: Experiments on the Time to Determine Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology : Human Perception and Performance, 24(3), 929-945. BARANSKI...PETRUSIC, W. (2001). Testing Architectures of the Decision-Confidence Relation. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology , 55(3): 195-206. PETRUSIC, W

  16. The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2010-03-01

    20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for

  17. Assessing public speaking fear with the short form of the Personal Report of Confidence as a Speaker scale: confirmatory factor analyses among a French-speaking community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeren, Alexandre; Ceschi, Grazia; Valentiner, David P; Dethier, Vincent; Philippot, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and structural validity of the French version of the 12-item version of the Personal Report of Confidence as Speaker (PRCS), one of the most promising measurements of public speaking fear. A total of 611 French-speaking volunteers were administered the French versions of the short PRCS, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale, as well as the Trait version of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory-II, which assess the level of anxious and depressive symptoms, respectively. Regarding its structural validity, confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single-factor solution, as implied by the original version. Good scale reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86) was observed. The item discrimination analysis suggested that all the items contribute to the overall scale score reliability. The French version of the short PRCS showed significant correlations with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = 0.522), the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale (r = 0.414), the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (r = 0.516), and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (r = 0.361). The French version of the short PRCS is a reliable and valid measure for the evaluation of the fear of public speaking among a French-speaking sample. These findings have critical consequences for the measurement of psychological and pharmacological treatment effectiveness in public speaking fear among a French-speaking sample.

  18. Jogging Therapy for Hikikomori Social Withdrawal and Increased Cerebral Hemodynamics: A Case Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishida, Masaki; Kikuchi, Senichiro; Fukuda, Kazuhito; Kato, Satoshi

    2016-01-01

    Severe social withdrawal, called hikikomori, has drawn increased public attention. However, an optimal clinical approach and strategy of treatment has not been well established. Here, we report a case of hikikomori for which an exercise intervention using jogging therapy was effective, showing cerebral hemodynamic improvement. The patient was a 20 year old Japanese male who was hospitalized in order to evaluate and treat severe social withdrawal. Although depressive and anxiety symptoms partially subsided with sertraline alone, social withdrawal persisted due to a lack of self confidence. With his consent, we implemented exercise therapy with 30 minutes of jogging three times a week for three months. We did not change the pharmacotherapy, and his social withdrawal remarkably improved with continuous jogging exercise. Using near infrared spectroscopy to evaluate hemodynamic alteration, bilateral temporal hemodynamics considerably increased after the three-month jogging therapy. Regarding exercise therapy for mental illness, numerous studies have reported the effectiveness of exercise therapy for major depression. This case implied, however, that the applicability of exercise therapy is not limited to major depressive disorder. Jogging therapy may contribute to reinforcing self confidence associated with "resilience" in conjunction with neurophysiological modulation of neural networks.

  19. Guaifenesin and increased sperm motility: a preliminary case report

    OpenAIRE

    Gary Means; Cristóbal S Berry-Cabán; Kurt Hammermeuller

    2010-01-01

    Gary Means1, Cristóbal S Berry-Cabán2, Kurt Hammermeuller11Department of Family Medicine, 2Department of Research, Womack Army Medical Center, Fort Bragg, NC, USABackground: A review of the literature and an extensive Medline search revealed that this is the first case report of the use of guaifenesin to increase sperm motility.Case: A 32-year-old male presented for an infertility evaluation. He reported an inability to conceive with his wife after 18 months of unprotect...

  20. Assessing public speaking fear with the short form of the Personal Report of Confidence as a Speaker scale: confirmatory factor analyses among a French-speaking community sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeren A

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Alexandre Heeren,1,2 Grazia Ceschi,3 David P Valentiner,4 Vincent Dethier,1 Pierre Philippot11Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; 2National Fund for Scientific Research, Brussels, Belgium; 3Department of Psychology, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; 4Department of Psychology, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USABackground: The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and structural validity of the French version of the 12-item version of the Personal Report of Confidence as Speaker (PRCS, one of the most promising measurements of public speaking fear.Methods: A total of 611 French-speaking volunteers were administered the French versions of the short PRCS, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale, as well as the Trait version of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory-II, which assess the level of anxious and depressive symptoms, respectively.Results: Regarding its structural validity, confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single-factor solution, as implied by the original version. Good scale reliability (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.86 was observed. The item discrimination analysis suggested that all the items contribute to the overall scale score reliability. The French version of the short PRCS showed significant correlations with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = 0.522, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale (r = 0.414, the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (r = 0.516, and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (r = 0.361.Conclusion: The French version of the short PRCS is a reliable and valid measure for the evaluation of the fear of public speaking among a French-speaking sample. These findings have critical consequences for the measurement of psychological and pharmacological treatment effectiveness in public speaking fear among a French-speaking sample.Keywords: social phobia, public speaking, confirmatory

  1. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  2. The Confidence Trick

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Keen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  3. The Confidence Trick

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  4. Confidence in Coastal Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,

  5. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…

  6. Resolving the Confidence Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apter, Terri

    2006-01-01

    As children approach adolescence, they often experience confusion and uncertainty as they attempt to appear more grown up than they really feel. Research on both girls and boys has documented that the buoyant self-confidence of younger children often gives way to self-consciousness as young adolescents become aware of the complexity and difficulty…

  7. Increased Mortality of Patients With Diabetes Reporting Severe Hypoglycemia

    OpenAIRE

    McCoy, Rozalina G.; Van Houten, Holly K; Ziegenfuss, Jeanette Y; Nilay D. Shah; Wermers, Robert A; Smith, Steven A.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Hypoglycemia is a cause of significant morbidity among patients with diabetes and may be associated with greater risk of death. We conducted a retrospective study to determine whether patient self-report of severe hypoglycemia is associated with increased mortality. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Adult patients (N = 1,020) seen in a specialty diabetes clinic between August 2005 and July 2006 were questioned about frequency of hypoglycemia during a preencounter interview; 7 were lost to...

  8. Intelligence, Self-confidence and Entrepreneurship

    OpenAIRE

    Asoni, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    I investigate the effect of human capital on entrepreneurship using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 1979. I find that individuals with higher measured intelligence and self-confidence are more likely to be entrepreneurs. Furthermore I present evidence suggesting that intelligence and self-confidence affect business ownership through two different channels: intelligence increases business survival while self-confidence increases business creation. Finally, once we control for intel...

  9. Business Confidence Survey 2000

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2009-01-01

    @@ In order to gain a better understanding about the depth and breadth of its effect on European companies'businesses,the new strategies they are adopting to cope with the crisis,and how their attitudes to towards China-including long-term plans-have changed in its aftermath,the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China today launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey,which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Beijing on June 30,2009.Drawing on the responses of more than 300 European companies active in China.the 2009 Survey highlights a European business community that remains bullish in China in most sectors and read to back up that confidence with continued investment in the local economy provided that Chinese government is committed to creating a more free,fair and competitive market.

  10. Varieties of Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousineau, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Error bars are useful to understand data and their interrelations. Here, it is shown that confidence intervals of the mean (CI M s) can be adjusted based on whether the objective is to highlight differences between measures or not and based on the experimental design (within- or between-group designs). Confidence intervals (CIs) can also be adjusted to take into account the sampling mechanisms and the population size (if not infinite). Names are proposed to distinguish the various types of CIs and the assumptions underlying them, and how to assess their validity is explained. The various CIs presented here are easily obtained from a succession of multiplicative adjustments to the basic (unadjusted) CI width. All summary results should present a measure of precision, such as CIs, as this information is complementary to effect sizes.

  11. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2016-11-11

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity.

  12. Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.

    2016-01-01

    Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....

  13. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  14. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  15. Interrelation of economic confidence with other types of confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Бонецький, Орест Олегович

    2013-01-01

    The paper gives the object and the subject of the study, which are used as a criterion allowing to separate the economic confidence from other types of confidence. The terms describing the psychological and sociological confidence are proposed. It was found that the economic confidence is interrelated with psychological confidence by motivation and advertising, sociological – by the results of activity of public organizations, state regulation of the economy. On the example of information-com...

  16. Guaifenesin and increased sperm motility: a preliminary case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Means

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Gary Means1, Cristóbal S Berry-Cabán2, Kurt Hammermeuller11Department of Family Medicine, 2Department of Research, Womack Army Medical Center, Fort Bragg, NC, USABackground: A review of the literature and an extensive Medline search revealed that this is the first case report of the use of guaifenesin to increase sperm motility.Case: A 32-year-old male presented for an infertility evaluation. He reported an inability to conceive with his wife after 18 months of unprotected intercourse. A semen analysis was performed that included spermatozoa count, liquefaction, morphology, motility, viscosity and volume. Initial results of the semen analysis demonstrated low sperm count and motility. The provider offered treatment with guaifenesin 600 mg extended release tablets twice daily. Two months after guaifenesin therapy the semen analysis was repeated that demonstrated marked improvement in both total sperm count and motility.Conclusion: Evidence for the effectiveness of guaifenesin is almost entirely anecdotal. Given the mechanism of action of guaifenesin, it is not clear from this case why the patient demonstrated such a large improvement in both sperm count and motility. Additional studies of the effects of guaifenesin on male fertility could yield information of the medication's effect on men with normal or decreased total sperm counts.Keywords: sperm motility, guaifenesin, infertility, male pregnancy

  17. Guaifenesin and increased sperm motility: a preliminary case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Means, Gary; Berry-Cabán, Cristóbal S; Hammermeuller, Kurt

    2010-12-20

    A review of the literature and an extensive Medline search revealed that this is the first case report of the use of guaifenesin to increase sperm motility. A 32-year-old male presented for an infertility evaluation. He reported an inability to conceive with his wife after 18 months of unprotected intercourse. A semen analysis was performed that included spermatozoa count, liquefaction, morphology, motility, viscosity and volume. Initial results of the semen analysis demonstrated low sperm count and motility. The provider offered treatment with guaifenesin 600 mg extended release tablets twice daily. Two months after guaifenesin therapy the semen analysis was repeated that demonstrated marked improvement in both total sperm count and motility. Evidence for the effectiveness of guaifenesin is almost entirely anecdotal. Given the mechanism of action of guaifenesin, it is not clear from this case why the patient demonstrated such a large improvement in both sperm count and motility. Additional studies of the effects of guaifenesin on male fertility could yield information of the medication's effect on men with normal or decreased total sperm counts.

  18. Assured Human-Autonomy Interaction through Machine Self-Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Matthew

    Autonomous systems employ many layers of approximations in order to operate in increasingly uncertain and unstructured environments. The complexity of these systems makes it hard for a user to understand the systems capabilities, especially if the user is not an expert. However, if autonomous systems are to be used efficiently, their users must trust them appropriately. This purpose of this work is to implement and assess an 'assurance' that an autonomous system can provide to the user to elicit appropriate trust. Specifically, the autonomous system's perception of its own capabilities is reported to the user as the self-confidence assurance. The self-confidence assurance should allow the user to more quickly and accurately assess the autonomous system's capabilities, generating appropriate trust in the autonomous system. First, this research defines self-confidence and discusses what the self-confidence assurance is attempting to communicate to the user. Then it provides a framework for computing the autonomous system's self-confidence as a function of self-confidence factors which correspond to individual elements in the autonomous system's process. In order to explore this idea, self-confidence is implemented on an autonomous system that uses a mixed observability Markov decision process model to solve a pursuit-evasion problem on a road network. The implementation of a factor assessing the goodness of the autonomy's expected performance is focused on in particular. This work highlights some of the issues and considerations in the design of appropriate metrics for the self-confidence factors, and provides the basis for future research for computing self-confidence in autonomous systems.

  19. Does Classroom Management Coursework Influence Pre-service Teachers' Perceived Preparedness or Confidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Sue; Stephenson, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    There has been conjecture that completing focused coursework units on classroom management during pre-service teacher preparation might lead to increased feelings of preparedness and confidence. This study reports the preparedness in managing specific problem behaviours, familiarity, and confidence in using management strategies and models of…

  20. Does Classroom Management Coursework Influence Pre-service Teachers' Perceived Preparedness or Confidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Sue; Stephenson, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    There has been conjecture that completing focused coursework units on classroom management during pre-service teacher preparation might lead to increased feelings of preparedness and confidence. This study reports the preparedness in managing specific problem behaviours, familiarity, and confidence in using management strategies and models of…

  1. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  2. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  3. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  4. Simulation integration with confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  5. Statistics with confidence confidence intervals and statistical guidelines

    CERN Document Server

    Altman, Douglas; Bryant, Trevor; Gardner, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This highly popular introduction to confidence intervals has been thoroughly updated and expanded. It includes methods for using confidence intervals, with illustrative worked examples and extensive guidelines and checklists to help the novice.

  6. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  7. Predictions Shape Confidence in Right Inferior Frontal Gyrus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Maxine T; Seth, Anil K; Kanai, Ryota

    2016-10-05

    It is clear that prior expectations shape perceptual decision-making, yet their contribution to the construction of subjective decision confidence remains largely unexplored. We recorded fMRI data while participants made perceptual decisions and confidence judgments, manipulating perceptual prior expectations while controlling for potential confounds of attention. Results show that subjective confidence increases as expectations increasingly support the decision, and that this relationship is associated with BOLD activity in right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG). Specifically, rIFG is sensitive to the discrepancy between expectation and decision (mismatch), and higher mismatch responses are associated with lower decision confidence. Connectivity analyses revealed expectancy information to be represented in bilateral orbitofrontal cortex and sensory signals to be represented in intracalcarine sulcus. Together, our results indicate that predictive information is integrated into subjective confidence in rIFG, and reveal an occipital-frontal network that constructs confidence from top-down and bottom-up signals. This interpretation was further supported by exploratory findings that the white matter density of right orbitofrontal cortex negatively predicted its respective contribution to the construction of confidence. Our findings advance our understanding of the neural basis of subjective perceptual processes by revealing an occipitofrontal functional network that integrates prior beliefs into the construction of confidence. Perceptual decision-making is typically conceived as an integration of bottom-up and top-down influences. However, perceptual decisions are accompanied by a sense of confidence. Confidence is an important facet of perceptual consciousness yet remains poorly understood. Here we implicate right inferior frontal gyrus in constructing confidence from the discrepancy between perceptual judgment and its prior probability. Furthermore, we place right

  8. National study of parental confidence in general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freed, Gary L; Spike, Neil; O'Hara, Jonathan; Hiscock, Harriet; Rhodes, Anthea L

    2017-09-03

    To assess a national sample of Australian parental confidence in general practitioner (GP) care for illness and injury for their children. Cross-sectional, internet-based survey of a national, representative sample of parents of children birth - 17 years in Australia was used. Purposeful recruitment was used to achieve a national, representative sample of 2100 Australian parents, reflective of demographic and geographic distribution based on census data. Parents were asked to indicate their degree of confidence in a GP to handle medical problems as well as their preference for, and use of, paediatric speciality care for their children. Fewer than half of parents (44%) reported that they were completely confident in a GP to provide general care as defined as 'can handle almost all general health issues for my child'. A slightly greater proportion of parents (56%) were completely confident in a GP to provide care for minor injuries, defined as injuries not requiring an X-ray. Greater confidence in general care was seen among parents >40 years of age and those whose GP is always bulk billed. Parental confidence in GPs is an important issue. Our findings that fewer than half of parents are completely confident in their GP to provide general care to their child may be an influencing factor on current health-care utilisation trends. The potential implications of low parental confidence in GPs are greater numbers of emergency department presentations for children with lower urgency conditions and increased referrals of children for specialty care. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  9. The STRIDE (Strategies to Increase confidence, InDependence and Energy) study: cognitive behavioural therapy-based intervention to reduce fear of falling in older fallers living in the community - study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Steve W; Deary, Vincent; Finch, Tracy; Bamford, Claire; Sabin, Neil; McMeekin, Peter; O'Brien, John; Caldwell, Alma; Steen, Nick; Whitney, Susan L; Macdonald, Claire; McColl, Elaine

    2014-06-06

    Around 30% to 62% of older individuals fall each year, with adverse consequences of falls being by no means limited to physical injury and escalating levels of dependence. Many older individuals suffer from a variety of adverse psychosocial difficulties related to falling including fear, anxiety, loss of confidence and subsequent increasing activity avoidance, social isolation and frailty. Such 'fear of falling' is common and disabling, but definitive studies examining the effective management of the syndrome are lacking. Cognitive behavioural therapy has been trialed with some success in a group setting, but there is no adequately powered randomised controlled study of an individually based cognitive behavioural therapy intervention, and none using non-mental health professionals to deliver the intervention. We are conducting a two-phase study examining the role of individual cognitive behavioural therapy delivered by healthcare assistants in improving fear of falling in older adults. In Phase I, the intervention was developed and taught to healthcare assistants, while Phase II is the pragmatic randomised controlled study examining the efficacy of the intervention in improving fear of falling in community-dwelling elders attending falls services. A qualitative process evaluation study informed by Normalization Process Theory is being conducted throughout to examine the potential promoters and inhibitors of introducing such an intervention into routine clinical practice, while a health economic sub-study running alongside the trial is examining the costs and benefits of such an approach to the wider health economy. Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN78396615.

  10. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...... of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health...

  11. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  12. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  13. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  14. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  15. US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?

    OpenAIRE

    Horn, Gustav Adolf

    2003-01-01

    One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance of asymmetric reactions is tested. The results show that there is a relationship bet...

  16. Preparation for high-acuity clinical placement: confidence levels of final-year nursing students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Porter J

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Joanne Porter, Julia Morphet, Karen Missen, Anita Raymond School of Nursing and Midwifery, Monash University, Churchill, VIC, Australia Aim: To measure final-year nursing students’ preparation for high-acuity placement with emphasis on clinical skill performance confidence. Background: Self-confidence has been reported as being a key component for effective clinical performance, and confident students are more likely to be more effective nurses. Clinical skill performance is reported to be the most influential source of self-confidence. Student preparation and skill acquisition are therefore important aspects in ensuring students have successful clinical placements, especially in areas of high acuity. Curriculum development should aim to assist students with their theoretical and clinical preparedness for the clinical environment. Method: A modified pretest/posttest survey design was used to measure the confidence of third-year undergraduate nursing students (n = 318 for placement into a high-acuity clinical setting. The survey comprised four questions related to clinical placement and prospect of participating in a cardiac arrest scenario, and confidence rating levels of skills related to practice in a high-acuity setting. Content and face validity were established by an expert panel (α = 0.90 and reliability was established by the pilot study in 2009. Comparisons were made between confidence levels at the beginning and end of semester. Results: Student confidence to perform individual clinical skills increased over the semester; however their feelings of preparedness for high-acuity clinical placement decreased over the same time period. Reported confidence levels improved with further exposure to clinical placement. Conclusion: There may be many external factors that influence students’ perceptions of confidence and preparedness for practice. Further research is recommended to identify causes of poor self-confidence in final-year nursing

  17. Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction—the princi- ple (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in...eliminative induction. As first proposed by Francis Bacon [Schum 2001] and extended by L. Jonathan Cohen [Cohen 1970, 1977, 1989], eliminative induction is...eliminative in- duction—the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for

  18. Cognitive-behavioural therapy-based intervention to reduce fear of falling in older people: therapy development and randomised controlled trial - the Strategies for Increasing Independence, Confidence and Energy (STRIDE) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Steve W; Bamford, Claire; Deary, Vincent; Finch, Tracy L; Gray, Jo; MacDonald, Claire; McMeekin, Peter; Sabin, Neil J; Steen, I Nick; Whitney, Sue L; McColl, Elaine M

    2016-07-01

    Falls cause fear, anxiety and loss of confidence, resulting in activity avoidance, social isolation and increasing frailty. The umbrella term for these problems is 'fear of falling', seen in up to 85% of older adults who fall. Evidence of effectiveness of physical and psychological interventions is limited, with no previous studies examining the role of an individually delivered cognitive-behavioural therapy (CBT) approach. Primary objective To develop and then determine the effectiveness of a new CBT intervention (CBTi) delivered by health-care assistants (HCAs) plus usual care compared with usual care alone in reducing fear of falling. Secondary objectives To measure the impact of the intervention on falls, injuries, functional abilities, anxiety/depression, quality of life, social participation and loneliness; investigate the acceptability of the intervention for patients, family members and professionals and factors that promote or inhibit its implementation; and measure the costs and benefits of the intervention. Phase I CBTi development. Phase II Parallel-group patient randomised controlled trial (RCT) of the new CBTi plus usual care compared with usual care alone. Multidisciplinary falls services. Consecutive community-dwelling older adults, both sexes, aged ≥ 60 years, with excessive or undue fear of falling per Falls Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I) score of > 23. Phase I Development of the CBTi. The CBTi was developed following patient interviews and taught to HCAs to maximise the potential for uptake and generalisability to a UK NHS setting. Phase II RCT. The CBTi was delivered by HCAs weekly for 8 weeks, with a 6-month booster session plus usual care. These were assessed at baseline, 8 weeks, 6 months and 12 months. Primary outcome measure Fear of falling measured by change in FES-I scores at 12 months. Secondary outcome measures These comprised falls, injuries, anxiety/depression [Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS

  19. Assessing Residents' Confidence in the Context of Pharmacotherapy Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakofsky, Jeffrey J; Garlow, Steven J; Haroon, Ebrahim; Hermida, Adriana P; Young, John Q; Dunlop, Boadie W

    2017-06-01

    We aimed to determine whether residents' confidence initiating medications increased with the number of times they prescribed individual medications and to quantify the relationship between prescription frequency and gains in confidence. From July 2011 to June 2014, PGY-3 residents completed a survey of confidence levels at their psychopharmacology clinic orientation and then again 12 months later. The Emory Healthcare electronic medical record was used to identify all medications prescribed by each resident during their 12-month rotation and the frequency of these prescriptions. Confidence in initiating treatment with all medicines/medication classes increased over the 12-month period. For three of the medication classes for which residents indicated they were least confident at orientation, the number of prescriptions written during the year was significantly associated with an increase in confidence. Measuring resident confidence is a relevant and achievable outcome and provides data for educators regarding the amount of experience needed to increase confidence.

  20. Exploring the Relationships among Teacher Confidence, Learning, and Test Performance within the English-for-Teaching Course. Research Report. ETS RR-16-24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Lin; Papageorgiou, Spiros

    2016-01-01

    In responding to the increasingly expanded emphasis on English language teaching (ELT) around the globe, Educational Testing Service (ETS) collaborated with National Geographic Learning to develop the "ELTeach"™ program (http://www.elteach.com), an online professional development program consisting of two courses, English-for-Teaching…

  1. Environmental implications of increased biomass energy use. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles, T.R. Sr.; Miles, T.R. Jr. [Miles (Thomas R.), Portland, OR (United States)

    1992-03-01

    This study reviews the environmental implications of continued and increased use of biomass for energy to determine what concerns have been and need to be addressed and to establish some guidelines for developing future resources and technologies. Although renewable biomass energy is perceived as environmentally desirable compared with fossil fuels, the environmental impact of increased biomass use needs to be identified and recognized. Industries and utilities evaluating the potential to convert biomass to heat, electricity, and transportation fuels must consider whether the resource is reliable and abundant, and whether biomass production and conversion is environmentally preferred. A broad range of studies and events in the United States were reviewed to assess the inventory of forest, agricultural, and urban biomass fuels; characterize biomass fuel types, their occurrence, and their suitability; describe regulatory and environmental effects on the availability and use of biomass for energy; and identify areas for further study. The following sections address resource, environmental, and policy needs. Several specific actions are recommended for utilities, nonutility power generators, and public agencies.

  2. U.S. architects report increased adoption of green building

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    2008-12-15

    This article discussed results of the 2008 Green Index survey conducted by Autodesk Inc., a company that is committed to developing software for easier and more efficient sustainable building design. The survey, which questioned members of the American Institute of Architects (AIA), revealed that architects and building owners have increased the implementation of sustainable design practices in response to a greater demand from clients. An increase in implementing green building elements of 15 per cent from 2007 may indicate a shift in attitude towards climate change. The primary reasons clients are asking for green buildings are reduced operating costs, marketing and marketing demand. The survey showed that 41 per cent of architects are using software to help predict and evaluate the environmental impact and lifecycle of their buildings as well as the HVAC operating costs and alternative building materials. The survey also showed that 24 per cent of architects are currently implementing green roofs on more than half of their new projects, compared with 7 per cent in 2007. Also, 39 per cent are using renewable, on-site energy sources such as solar, wind ,geothermal, low impact hydro, or biomass on more than half of new building designs compared with only 6 per cent in 2007. 1 ref.

  3. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  4. Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Mejer, Avihai

    2011-01-01

    Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...

  5. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    OpenAIRE

    Aitchison, L.; Bang, D; Bahrami, B.; Latham, P.E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we te...

  6. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs.

  7. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs. DESI

  8. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  9. APPLICATION OF ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy S. Ayzatullen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The socio-economic category of “trust” is studied in the article. The analysis of the existing views about the term “trust” was conducted. A model of the interaction of “Power - Business - People”, using the concept of “trust”, was made. The application and the structure of confidence estimations in economy and politics are studied. The accumulated experience of application of confidence estimations in the macroeconomics of the major countries of the world was showed. The current weaknesses of the confidence indexes are reflected.

  10. Evaluation of undergraduate nursing students' clinical confidence following a mental health recovery camp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowley, Thomas; Sumskis, Sue; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie; Brighton, Renee; Patterson, Chris; Halcomb, Elizabeth

    2016-02-01

    In the present study, we evaluate the impact of participation in a mental health recovery camp on the clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students in dealing with individuals with mental illness. Twenty undergraduate nursing students who participated in the recovery camp completed the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale both before and directly after attending the camp. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Participation in the recovery camp was associated with a statistically-significant increase in students' level of overall confidence between the pretest and post-test data (P students over the age of 25 years and who do not have a family history of mental illness are more likely to self-report a higher level of confidence in both the pre- and post-results. The clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students improved through participation in an immersive clinical experience within the recovery camp.

  11. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; DELEN, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  12. Confidence and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Sylvain Leduc

    2010-01-01

    The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a...

  13. Regaining confidence in confidence intervals for the mean treatment effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Thomas W

    2014-09-28

    In many experiments, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment by comparing the responses of two groups of subjects. This evaluation is often performed by using a confidence interval for the difference between the population means. To compute the limits of this confidence interval, researchers usually use the pooled t formulas, which are derived by assuming normally distributed errors. When the normality assumption does not seem reasonable, the researcher may have little confidence in the confidence interval because the actual one-sided coverage probability may not be close to the nominal coverage probability. This problem can be avoided by using the Robbins-Monro iterative search method to calculate the limits. One problem with this iterative procedure is that it is not clear when the procedure produces a sufficiently accurate estimate of a limit. In this paper, we describe a multiple search method that allows the user to specify the accuracy of the limits. We also give guidance concerning the number of iterations that would typically be needed to achieve a specified accuracy. This multiple iterative search method will produce limits for one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals that maintain their coverage probabilities with non-normal distributions.

  14. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  15. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  16. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  17. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Lee, Michael D.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2016-01-01

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  18. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, R.D.; Hoekstra, R.; Rouder, J.N.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  19. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  20. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Medical students as EMTs: skill building, confidence and professional formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Kwiatkowski

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The first course of the medical curriculum at the Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine, From the Person to the Professional: Challenges, Privileges and Responsibilities, provides an innovative early clinical immersion. The course content specific to the Emergency Medical Technician (EMT curriculum was developed using the New York State Emergency Medical Technician curriculum. Students gain early legitimate clinical experience and practice clinical skills as team members in the pre-hospital environment. We hypothesized this novel curriculum would increase students’ confidence in their ability to perform patient care skills and enhance students’ comfort with team-building skills early in their training. Methods: Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from first-year medical students (n=97 through a survey developed to assess students’ confidence in patient care and team-building skills. The survey was completed prior to medical school, during the final week of the course, and at the end of their first year. A paired-samples t-test was conducted to compare self-ratings on 12 patient care and 12 team-building skills before and after the course, and a theme analysis was conducted to examine open-ended responses. Results: Following the course, student confidence in patient care skills showed a significant increase from baseline (p<0.05 for all identified skills. Student confidence in team-building skills showed a significant increase (p<0.05 in 4 of the 12 identified skills. By the end of the first year, 84% of the first-year students reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their patient care skills, while 72% reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their team-building skills. Conclusions: The incorporation of EMT training early in a medical school curriculum provides students with meaningful clinical experiences that increase their self-reported

  2. Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina M. Hall

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods. 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results. Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%. Multivariate analyses showed confidence was associated with being male (P<0.001 and having had five or more lifetime sexual partners (P=0.038. Reading packet instructions was associated with increased condom use confidence (P=0.011. Amongst participants who had used a condom in the last year, 37% had experienced the condom breaking and 48% had experienced the condom slipping off during intercourse and 51% when withdrawing the penis after sex. Conclusion. This population of young people are experiencing high rates of condom failures and are using them inconsistently or incorrectly, demonstrating the need to improve attitudes, behaviour, and knowledge about correct and consistent condom usage. There is a need to empower young Australians, particularly females, with knowledge and confidence in order to improve condom use self-efficacy.

  3. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038

  4. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  5. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  6. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, R.; Morey, R.D.; Rouder, J.N.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  7. International Communication and Confidence-Building in Europe. Report of the Leipzig-Tampere Seminar on Confidence-Building in the Non-Military Field (1st, Leipzig, East Germany, May 14-15, 1986). Publications Series B. 20/1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinwachter, Wolfgang, Ed.; Nordenstreng, Kaarle, Ed.

    Focusing on the role of the international mass media, these essays stress the urgency of building confidence in the relations among European states and populations in order to secure peace on a world-wide scale and to stop the arms race on the earth and prevent its extension to outer space. Titles and authors are as follows: (1) "Welcoming…

  8. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  9. The accuracy of meta-metacognitive judgments: regulating the realism of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin

    2012-08-01

    Can people improve the realism of their confidence judgments about the correctness of their episodic memory reports by deselecting the least realistic judgments? An assumption of Koriat and Goldsmith's (Psychol Rev 103:490-517, 1996) model is that confidence judgments regulate the reporting of memory reports. We tested whether this assumption generalizes to the regulation of the realism (accuracy) of confidence judgments. In two experiments, 270 adults in separate conditions answered 50 recognition and recall questions about the contents of a just-seen video. After each answer, they made confidence judgments about the answer's correctness. In Experiment 1, the participants in the recognition conditions significantly increased their absolute bias when they excluded 15 questions. In Experiment 2, the participants in the recall condition significantly improved their calibration. The results indicate that recall, more than recognition, offers valid cues for participants to increase the realism of their report. However, the effects were small with only weak support for the conclusion that people have some ability to regulate the realism in their confidence judgments.

  10. Understanding the influences on self-confidence among first-year undergraduate nursing students in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesser-Smyth, Patricia A; Long, Tony

    2013-01-01

    To report a mixed-methods study of the development of self-confidence in Irish nursing students undertaking the first year of an undergraduate nursing programme. Self-confidence underpins nurses' competence to carry out care effectively, yet there is little empirical evidence of how this attribute is fostered in pre-registration preparation. There is an assumption, however, that self-confidence develops independently and spontaneously. A sequential, mixed methods three-phase design was used. The design involved pretest and posttest measurements of self-confidence, focus group interviews, a student self-evaluation questionnaire and analysis of the relevant curriculum content. Data were collected between September 2007-April 2008 and sampling was from three cohorts of students at three different Institutes of Technology in Ireland. Data collection matched the nature of the data, including descriptive, non-inferential statistics and qualitative content analysis. There was considerable variation in the amount and nature of theoretical preparation. Factors in clinical practice exerted the most influence. Self-confidence fluctuated during the first clinical placement and as students' self-confidence developed, simultaneously, motivation towards academic achievement increased. Conversely, self-confidence was quickly eroded by poor preceptor attitudes, lack of communication, and feeling undervalued. The development of self-confidence is complex and multi-factorial. This study offers further understanding of facilitators and barriers that may be relevant elsewhere in promoting student nurses' developing self-confidence. The development of self-confidence must be recognized as a central tenet for the design and delivery of undergraduate programmes. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Self-Confidence & Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Bénabou, Roland; Tirole, Jean

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self-esteem and his social environment - in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self--confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering paymen...

  12. Experiential Education Builds Student Self-Confidence in Delivering Medication Therapy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Parker

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To determine the impact of advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPE on student self-confidence related to medication therapy management (MTM, fourth-year pharmacy students were surveyed pre/post APPE to: identify exposure to MTM learning opportunities, assess knowledge of the MTM core components, and assess self-confidence performing MTM services. An anonymous electronic questionnaire administered pre/post APPE captured demographics, factors predicted to impact student self-confidence (Grade point average (GPA, work experience, exposure to MTM learning opportunities, MTM knowledge and self-confidence conducting MTM using a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Not at all Confident; 5 = Extremely Confident. Sixty-two students (26% response rate responded to the pre-APPE questionnaire and n = 44 (18% to the post-APPE. Over 90% demonstrated MTM knowledge and 68.2% completed MTM learning activities. APPE experiences significantly improved students’ overall self-confidence (pre-APPE = 3.27 (0.85 SD, post-APPE = 4.02 (0.88, p < 0.001. Students engaging in MTM learning opportunities had higher self-confidence post-APPE (4.20 (0.71 vs. those not reporting MTM learning opportunities (3.64 (1.08, p = 0.05. Post-APPE, fewer students reported MTM was patient-centric or anticipated engaging in MTM post-graduation. APPE learning opportunities increased student self-confidence to provide MTM services. However, the reduction in anticipated engagement in MTM post-graduation and reduction in sensing the patient-centric nature of MTM practice, may reveal a gap between practice expectations and reality.

  13. ;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

    2017-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

  14. Nine-year risk of depression diagnosis increases with increasing self-reported concussions in retired professional football players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Zachary Y; Marshall, Stephen W; Harding, Herndon P; Guskiewicz, Kevin M

    2012-10-01

    Concussions may accelerate the progression to long-term mental health outcomes such as depression in athletes. To prospectively determine the effects of recurrent concussions on the clinical diagnosis of depression in a group of retired football players. Cohort study; Level of evidence, 2. Members of the National Football League Retired Players Association responded to a baseline General Health Survey (GHS) in 2001. They also completed a follow-up survey in 2010. Both surveys asked about demographic information, number of concussions sustained during their professional football career, physical/mental health, and prevalence of diagnosed medical conditions. A physical component summary (Short Form 36 Measurement Model for Functional Assessment of Health and Well-Being [SF-36 PCS]) was calculated from responses for physical health. The main exposure, the history of concussions during the professional playing career (self-report recalled in 2010), was stratified into 5 categories: 0 (referent), 1 to 2, 3 to 4, 5 to 9, and 10+ concussions. The main outcome was a clinical diagnosis of depression between the baseline and follow-up GHS. Classic tabular methods computed crude risk ratios. Binomial regression with a Poisson residual and robust variance estimation to stabilize the fitting algorithm estimated adjusted risk ratios. χ(2) analyses identified associations and trends between concussion history and the 9-year risk of a depression diagnosis. Of the 1044 respondents with complete data from the baseline and follow-up GHS, 106 (10.2%) reported being clinically diagnosed as depressed between the baseline and follow-up GHS. Approximately 65% of all respondents self-reported sustaining at least 1 concussion during their professional careers. The 9-year risk of a depression diagnosis increased with an increasing number of self-reported concussions, ranging from 3.0% in the "no concussions" group to 26.8% in the "10+" group (linear trend: P concussions and depression was

  15. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  16. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  17. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  18. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

  19. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  20. Confidence of model based shape reconstruction from sparse data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baka, N.; de Bruijne, Marleen; Reiber, J. H. C.

    2010-01-01

    and assign a confidence value to the resulting reconstructed shape. An evaluation study is performed to compare three methods used for sparse SSM fitting w.r.t. specificity, generalization ability, and correctness of estimated confidence limits with an increasing amount of input information. We find...... that the proposed constrained shape model outperforms the other models, is robust against the selection and amount of sparse information, and indicates the shape confidence well....

  1. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra Buratti; Carl Martin Allwood

    2012-01-01

    We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate) by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying c...

  2. Confidence Intervals for Standardized Effect Sizes: Theory, Application, and Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Kelley

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The behavioral, educational, and social sciences are undergoing a paradigmatic shift in methodology, from disciplines that focus on the dichotomous outcome of null hypothesis significance tests to disciplines that report and interpret effect sizes and their corresponding confidence intervals. Due to the arbitrariness of many measurement instruments used in the behavioral, educational, and social sciences, some of the most widely reported effect sizes are standardized. Although forming confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes can be very beneficial, such confidence interval procedures are generally difficult to implement because they depend on noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions. At present, no main-stream statistical package provides exact confidence intervals for standardized effects without the use of specialized programming scripts. Methods for the Behavioral, Educational, and Social Sciences (MBESS is an R package that has routines for calculating confidence intervals for noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions, which are then used in the calculation of exact confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes by using the confidence interval transformation and inversion principles. The present article discusses the way in which confidence intervals are formed for standardized effect sizes and illustrates how such confidence intervals can be easily formed using MBESS in R.

  3. Conceptual and Practical Implications for Rehabilitation Research: Effect Size Estimates, Confidence Intervals, and Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrin, James M.; Bishop, Malachy; Tansey, Timothy N.; Frain, Michael; Swett, Elizabeth A.; Lane, Frank J.

    2007-01-01

    For a number of conceptually and practically important reasons, reporting of effect size estimates, confidence intervals, and power in parameter estimation is increasingly being recognized as the preferred approach in social science research. Unfortunately, this practice has not yet been widely adopted in the rehabilitation or general counseling…

  4. Business confidence still high in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanor-wilks, D

    1995-12-01

    Business confidence has not been affected in Zimbabwe despite the AIDS epidemic in that country. An Australian mining company has recruited people to work at its platinum mine in Zimbabwe and also instituted an AIDS awareness program. The National Chamber of Commerce disclosed that semiskilled and unskilled workers who are the "easiest to replace" have been most affected by the epidemic. The impact of AIDS has not been as bad as had been predicted several years ago. By the end of the 1990s, however, there might be a skills shortage. The first AIDS case was detected in 1985 in Zimbabwe. By the end of 1995 a cumulative total of 38,500 cases had been reported, but the National AIDS Control Program believes that the true figure is over 100,000. The estimated number of HIV-infected people is about 1 million. The most economically productive age group (30-50) has the highest rates of infection. Transport is affected most, followed by mining and commercial farming. Infection rates among miners are estimated to be 20-30% and the rates are the highest at the mines on the major transport routes. The mining industry has not had any problems in recruiting labor, but, increasingly, deaths are AIDS-related. The growing sex industry at the mines has accelerated the spread of HIV. In addition, small mines do not have AIDS awareness programs in place. The National Employment Council runs a project for the transport industry, which seeks to intensify AIDS campaigns at truck stops. This also entails talks to drivers about AIDS; courses for police, nurses, and sex workers; and the distribution of condoms. In commercial farming, two-thirds of workers are unskilled casual laborers who live in squalid conditions that foster the spread of AIDS. At these farms there is also a growing number of orphans, whose number is estimated to rise to 60,000 by the late 1990s.

  5. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  6. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  7. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2007-12-01

    This study examined changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge could not be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest there may be important connections between the 2 for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  8. Independent Neural Computation of Value from Other People's Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell-Meiklejohn, Daniel; Simonsen, Arndis; Frith, Chris D; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2017-01-18

    Expectation of reward can be shaped by the observation of actions and expressions of other people in one's environment. A person's apparent confidence in the likely reward of an action, for instance, makes qualities of their evidence, not observed directly, socially accessible. This strategy is computationally distinguished from associative learning methods that rely on direct observation, by its use of inference from indirect evidence. In twenty-three healthy human subjects, we isolated effects of first-hand experience, other people's choices, and the mediating effect of their confidence, on decision-making and neural correlates of value within ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Value derived from first-hand experience and other people's choices (regardless of confidence) were indiscriminately represented across vmPFC. However, value computed from agent choices weighted by their associated confidence was represented with specificity for ventromedial area 10. This pattern corresponds to shifts of connectivity and overlapping cognitive processes along a posterior-anterior vmPFC axis. Task behavior and self-reported self-reliance for decision-making in other social contexts correlated. The tendency to conform in other social contexts corresponded to increased activation in cortical regions previously shown to respond to social conflict in proportion to subsequent conformity (Campbell-Meiklejohn et al., 2010). The tendency to self-monitor predicted a selectively enhanced response to accordance with others in the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ). The findings anatomically decompose vmPFC value representations according to computational requirements and provide biological insight into the social transmission of preference and reassurance gained from the confidence of others. Decades of research have provided evidence that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) signals the satisfaction we expect from imminent actions. However, we have a surprisingly modest

  9. Increased error rates in preliminary reports issued by radiology residents working more than 10 consecutive hours overnight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruutiainen, Alexander T; Durand, Daniel J; Scanlon, Mary H; Itri, Jason N

    2013-03-01

    To determine if the rate of major discrepancies between resident preliminary reports and faculty final reports increases during the final hours of consecutive 12-hour overnight call shifts. Institutional review board exemption status was obtained for this study. All overnight radiology reports interpreted by residents on-call between January 2010 and June 2010 were reviewed by board-certified faculty and categorized as major discrepancies if they contained a change in interpretation with the potential to impact patient management or outcome. Initial determination of a major discrepancy was at the discretion of individual faculty radiologists based on this general definition. Studies categorized as major discrepancies were secondarily reviewed by the residency program director (M.H.S.) to ensure consistent application of the major discrepancy designation. Multiple variables associated with each report were collected and analyzed, including the time of preliminary interpretation, time into shift study was interpreted, volume of studies interpreted during each shift, day of the week, patient location (inpatient or emergency department), block of shift (2-hour blocks for 12-hour shifts), imaging modality, patient age and gender, resident identification, and faculty identification. Univariate risk factor analysis was performed to determine the optimal data format of each variable (ie, continuous versus categorical). A multivariate logistic regression model was then constructed to account for confounding between variables and identify independent risk factors for major discrepancies. We analyzed 8062 preliminary resident reports with 79 major discrepancies (1.0%). There was a statistically significant increase in major discrepancy rate during the final 2 hours of consecutive 12-hour call shifts. Multivariate analysis confirmed that interpretation during the last 2 hours of 12-hour call shifts (odds ratio (OR) 1.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.18-3.21), cross

  10. Greater patient confidence yields greater functional outcomes after primary total shoulder arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styron, Joseph F; Higuera, Carlos A; Strnad, Greg; Iannotti, Joseph P

    2015-08-01

    Patient satisfaction is increasingly being tied to reimbursement rates, and patient satisfaction is often associated with improving functionality and decreasing disability postoperatively. This study sought to determine if a total shoulder arthroplasty patient's preoperative confidence in his or her ability to attain the level of activity desired would influence postoperative functional scores. Patients undergoing a primary total shoulder arthroplasty at a single institution were asked to complete a preoperative questionnaire with multiple items including baseline symptom severity measures and their confidence in reaching their level of desired functionality postoperatively (scored 0-10). Patients then completed an identical postoperative questionnaire at their follow-up visits. Associations between the patient's confidence in attaining treatment goals and functional outcomes was established by multiple linear regression models that were adjusted for gender, age, body mass index, baseline 12-Item Short Form Health Survey mental component scores, college education, smoking status, baseline functional scores, and length of follow-up. Patients had a high level of confidence that their outcome would match their expectations, with an average score of 7.8 (range, 0-10; 28.4% reported a full 10/10 confidence). For every 1-point increase in confidence, patients experienced an average increase in their function score of 2.7 points (P = .039) and improvement in their pain score of 2.0 (P = .033) according to the Penn Shoulder Score. There was no significant association with the patient's 12-Item Short Form Health Survey score postoperatively. Patients with greater preoperative confidence actually have significantly better postoperative functional outcomes than their less confident peers even with adjustment for other known risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Properties of frequentist confidence levels derivatives

    CERN Document Server

    Martínez, Miriam Lucio; Dettori, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    In high energy physics, results from searches for new particles or rare processes are often reported using a modified frequentist approach, known as $\\rm{CL_s}$ method. In this paper, we study the properties of the derivatives of $\\rm{CL_s}$ and $\\rm{CL_{s+b}}$ as signal strength estimators if the confidence levels are interpreted as credible intervals. Our approach allows obtaining best fit points and $\\chi^2$ functions which can be used for phenomenology studies. In addition, this approach can be used to incorporate $\\rm{CL_s}$ results into Bayesian combinations.

  12. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  13. Increasing reports of non-tuberculous mycobacteria in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 1995-2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Drobniewski Francis

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Non-tuberculous mycobacteria have long been identified as capable of causing human disease and the number at risk, due to immune-suppression, is rising. Several reports have suggested incidence to be increasing, yet routine surveillance-based evidence is lacking. We investigated recent trends in, and the epidemiology of, non-tuberculous mycobacterial infections in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, 1995-2006. Methods Hospital laboratories voluntarily report non-tuberculous mycobacterial infections to the Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections. Details reported include age and sex of the patient, species, specimen type and source laboratory. All reports were analysed. Results The rate of non-tuberculous mycobacteria reports rose from 0.9 per 100,000 population in 1995 to 2.9 per 100,000 in 2006 (1608 reports. Increases were mainly in pulmonary specimens and people aged 60+ years. The most commonly reported species was Mycobacterium avium-intracellulare (43%; M. malmoense and M. kansasii were also commonly reported. M. gordonae showed the biggest increase over the study period rising from one report in 1995 to 153 in 2006. Clinical information was rarely reported. Conclusions The number and rate of reports increased considerably between 1995 and 2006, primarily in older age groups and pulmonary specimens. Increases in some species are likely to be artefacts but real changes in more pathogenic species, some of which will require clinical care, should not be excluded. Enhanced surveillance is needed to understand the true epidemiology of these infections and their impact on human health.

  14. Confidence sets for network structure

    CERN Document Server

    Airoldi, Edoardo M; Wolfe, Patrick J

    2011-01-01

    Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of 'residual' network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific...

  15. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence.

  16. A minimal ingroup advantage in emotion identification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Steven G; Wilson, John Paul

    2016-12-28

    Emotion expressions convey valuable information about others' internal states and likely behaviours. Accurately identifying expressions is critical for social interactions, but so is perceiver confidence when decoding expressions. Even if a perceiver correctly labels an expression, uncertainty may impair appropriate behavioural responses and create uncomfortable interactions. Past research has found that perceivers report greater confidence when identifying emotions displayed by cultural ingroup members, an effect attributed to greater perceptual skill and familiarity with own-culture than other-culture faces. However, the current research presents novel evidence for an ingroup advantage in emotion decoding confidence across arbitrary group boundaries that hold culture constant. In two experiments using different stimulus sets participants not only labeled minimal ingroup expressions more accurately, but did so with greater confidence. These results offer novel evidence that ingroup advantages in emotion decoding confidence stem partly from social-cognitive processes.

  17. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  18. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  19. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  20. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations.

  1. Status and Confidence, in the Lab

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey V. Butler

    2009-01-01

    It is widely recognized that confidence can have important economic consequences. While most of the focus has been on overconfidence, systematic variation in confidence can imply systematic variation in economic outcomes. Intriguingly, sociological and social psychological research suggests that being on the wrong side of inequality undermines confidence. This paper examines the link between inequality and confidence in a controlled, incentive-compatible laboratory setting. Inequality was int...

  2. Correlating student knowledge and confidence using a graded knowledge survey to assess student learning in a general microbiology classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favazzo, Lacey; Willford, John D; Watson, Rachel M

    2014-12-01

    Knowledge surveys are a type of confidence survey in which students rate their confidence in their ability to answer questions rather than answering the questions. These surveys have been discussed as a tool to evaluate student in-class or curriculum-wide learning. However, disagreement exists as to whether confidence is actually an accurate measure of knowledge. With the concomitant goals of assessing content-based learning objectives and addressing this disagreement, we present herein a pretest/posttest knowledge survey study that demonstrates a significant difference correctness on graded test questions at different levels of reported confidence in a multi-semester timeframe. Questions were organized into Bloom's taxonomy, allowing for the data collected to further provide statistical analyses on strengths and deficits in various levels of Bloom's reasoning with regard to mean correctness. Collectively, students showed increasing confidence and correctness in all levels of thought but struggled with synthesis-level questions. However, when students were only asked to rate confidence and not answer the accompanying test questions, they reported significantly higher confidence than the control group which was asked to do both. This indicates that when students do not attempt to answer questions, they have significantly greater confidence in their ability to answer those questions. Additionally, when students rate only confidence without answering the question, resolution across Bloom's levels of reasoning is lost. Based upon our findings, knowledge surveys can be an effective tool for assessment of both breadth and depth of knowledge, but may require students to answer questions in addition to rating confidence to provide the most accurate data.

  3. Increasing Autism Awareness in Inner-City Churches: A Brief Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Norah; Van Hecke, Amy

    2015-01-01

    Autism diagnosis rates trail significantly in the African American community. This pre-test post-test pilot study evaluated an African American inner-city church health ambassadors (HAs) autism spectrum disorder (ASD) awareness training session. The participants included 12 HAs who attended the 1 hour training session organized by the National Baptist Convention, USA, Inc. Results of surveys showed higher mean scores post training for (1) HA attitudes about the potential for children to improve with applied behavior analysis therapy; (2) HA self-efficacy for having information about ASD screening materials; (3) strategies HAs could use to help parents/caregivers of children with developmental delays and challenging behaviors; (4) HA confidence in referrals for children with signs of ASD; (5) HA knowledge of measures to take to maximize a child's chance of receiving an ASD evaluation; and (6) HA comfort for talking to parents about children with challenging behaviors. Several of these effects were maintained 3 months later. Findings underscore the usefulness of the intervention for increasing the dissemination of knowledge about ASD and the opportunity to positively affect ASD screening, early intervention, and policy standards applicable to this vulnerable population.

  4. A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    M.U. Thomas Date Dean, Graduate School of Engineering and Management Table of Contents Page List of Figures...Plato, Aristotle, Plotinus, St Augustine, St Aquinas , Machi- avelli, Descartes, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Kant, Marx, Mill, Confucius) discuss having...independence, and aggregation of confidence is a linear summation of individual confidence values. Thomas and Allcock [61] develop a statistical confidence

  5. Expanded practice roles for community mental health nurses in Australia: confidence, critical factors for preparedness, and perceived barriers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsom, Stephen; Happell, Brenda; Manias, Elizabeth

    2008-07-01

    As the momentum for nurse practitioner roles rapidly increases in Australia, little scholarly attention has been directed towards barriers to role expansion, the confidence necessary to undertake expanded practice roles (other than prescription of medication), or the educational preparation required for expanded roles. This paper reports on community mental health nurses' views regarding confidence to undertake expanded roles, their opinions regarding the necessary preparation for such roles, and barriers to role expansion. An questionnaire was administered to 296 community mental health nurses employed in metropolitan and rural settings in Victoria, Australia. In regards to various domains of expanded practice, nurses were least confident about prescribing but more than half (54%) reported that they would either "definitely" or "probably" feel confident. Over 90% reported "probably" or "definitely" feeling confident to make recommendations for involuntary treatment. Eighty-four percent and 79% reported similar levels of confidence in relation to ordering diagnostic tests and referring patients to medical specialists, respectively. Most (95%) agreed that extra educational preparation was necessary in relation to undertaking expanded practice roles successfully. Factors considered most strongly as barriers to expanded nursing practice included the medical profession, followed by fear of litigation, and government departments and policies.

  6. Ambulatory assessment of skin conductivity during first thesis presentation: lower self-confidence predicts prolonged stress response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone

    2011-06-01

    In this field study self-confidence was tested to predict the course of galvanic electrodermal stress response prior, during and after public speaking. Ten graduate students initially rated their self-confidence and afterwards presented their thesis proposals orally in a 10-min presentation to their supervisor and peers. Galvanic skin response level was measured throughout and analysed for 10 min prior to, during, and 10 min after the presentation. Two major galvanic electrodermal stress response types were observed. Five students showed a 'healthy response', i.e. an anticipatory increase in electrodermal conductance, followed by a decrease after termination of the presentation. The other five students showed a steady increase of skin conductance during and after their presentation ('prolonged response'). In line with the allostatic load model the 'prolonged response' group reported significantly lower self-confidence before presentation than the 'healthy response' group (p Self-confidence is a resource in novices facing an unfamiliar stressor.

  7. Fundamentals,Confidence and Policy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ Entering the third year of the most serious economic crisis since the Great Deprerssion,the world economy is still bogged down on the muddy road to recovery.The latest edition of Standard Chartered Bank's monthly report,Global Focus,published on February 2,offered some analysis on the outlook of the global economy this year.

  8. Increased Intensity of Physical Therapy for a Child with Gross Motor Developmental Delay: A Case Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreiber, Joe

    2004-01-01

    Background and Purpose: The intensity of physical therapy provided for children in early intervention (EI) programs may be influenced by a number of factors. In an individualized program, however, some children and families may benefit from an increased frequency of services. The purpose of this case report was to systematically document and…

  9. Medicare's Hospital Compare quality reports appear to have slowed price increases for two major procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dor, Avi; Encinosa, William E; Carey, Kathleen

    2015-01-01

    Previous research has found that Hospital Compare, Medicare's public reporting initiative, has had little impact on patient outcomes. However, little is known about the initiative's impact on hospital prices, which may be significant because private insurers are generally well positioned to respond to quality information when negotiating prices with hospitals. We estimated difference-in-differences models of the effects of Hospital Compare quality reporting on transaction prices for two major cardiac procedures, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). States that had mandated their own public reporting systems before the implementation of Hospital Compare formed the control group. We found that prices for these procedures continued to increase overall after the initiation of Hospital Compare quality scores, but the rate of increase was significantly lower in states with no quality reporting metrics of their own before Hospital Compare, when compared to the control states (annual rates of increase of 4.4 percent versus 8.7 percent for PCI, and 3.9 percent versus 10.6 percent for CABG, adjusted for overall inflation). This finding implies that Hospital Compare provided leverage to purchasers in moderating price increases, while adding competitive pressures on hospitals. Providing accurate quality information on both hospitals and health plans could benefit consumers.

  10. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Transparent and accurate reporting increases reliability, utility, and impact of your research: reporting guidelines and the EQUATOR Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schulz Kenneth F

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Although current electronic methods of scientific publishing offer increased opportunities for publishing all research studies and describing them in sufficient detail, health research literature still suffers from many shortcomings. These shortcomings seriously undermine the value and utility of the literature and waste scarce resources invested in the research. In recent years there have been several positive steps aimed at improving this situation, such as a strengthening of journals' policies on research publication and the wide requirement to register clinical trials. The EQUATOR (Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research Network is an international initiative set up to advance high quality reporting of health research studies; it promotes good reporting practices including the wider implementation of reporting guidelines. EQUATOR provides free online resources http://www.equator-network.org supported by education and training activities and assists in the development of robust reporting guidelines. This paper outlines EQUATOR's goals and activities and offers suggestions for organizations and individuals involved in health research on how to strengthen research reporting.

  12. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  13. Self-reported musculoskeletal pain predicts long-term increase in general health care use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartvigsen, Jan; Davidsen, Michael; Søgaard, Karen

    2014-01-01

    reported during the past two weeks from the Danish National Cohort Study were merged with data from the Danish National Health Insurance Registry and the National Patient Registry containing information on consultations in the Danish primary and secondary care sector. Absolute and relative rates for all......Aims: Musculoskeletal pain and disability is a modern epidemic and a major reason for seeking health care. The aim of this study is to determine absolute and relative rates of care seeking over 20 years for adults reporting musculoskeletal complaints. Methods: Interview data on musculoskeletal pain...... to any of the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS SELF-REPORT OF MUSCULOSKELETAL PAIN REPORTED WITHIN THE PAST TWO WEEKS PREDICTS A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM INCREASE IN GENERAL USE OF HEALTH CARE SERVICES IN BOTH THE PRIMARY AND THE SECONDARY HEALTH CARE SECTOR:...

  14. Linguistic Weighted Aggregation under Confidence Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chonghui Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop some new linguistic aggregation operators based on confidence levels. Firstly, we introduce the confidence linguistic weighted averaging (CLWA operator and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CLOWA operator. These two new linguistic aggregation operators are able to consider the confidence level of the aggregated arguments provided by the information providers. We also study some of their properties. Then, based on the generalized means, we introduce the confidence generalized linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CGLOWA operator. The main advantage of the CGLOWA operator is that it includes a wide range of special cases such as the CLOWA operator, the confidence linguistic ordered weighted quadratic averaging (CLOWQA operator, and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted geometric (CLOWG operator. Finally, we develop an application of the new approach in a multicriteria decision-making under linguistic environment and illustrate it with a numerical example.

  15. The construction of confidence in a perceptual decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making involves the selection of one out of many possible courses of action. A decision may bear on other decisions, as when humans seek a second medical opinion before undergoing a risky surgical intervention. These “meta-decisions” are mediated by confidence judgments—the degree to which decision-makers consider that a choice is likely to be correct. We studied how subjective confidence is constructed from noisy sensory evidence. The psychophysical kernels used to convert sensory information into choice and confidence decisions were precisely reconstructed measuring the impact of small fluctuations in sensory input. This is shown in two independent experiments in which human participants made a decision about the direction of motion of a set of randomly moving dots, or compared the brightness of a group of fluctuating bars, followed by a confidence report. The results of both experiments converged to show that: (1) confidence was influenced by evidence during a short window of time at the initial moments of the decision, and (2) confidence was influenced by evidence for the selected choice but was virtually blind to evidence for the non-selected choice. Our findings challenge classical models of subjective confidence—which posit that the difference of evidence in favor of each choice is the seed of the confidence signal. PMID:23049504

  16. Students' intentions towards studying science at upper-secondary school: the differential effects of under-confidence and over-confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although under-confidence and over-confidence (lower or higher confidence than expected, given someone's attainment) have not been considered in detail. Accordingly, this study explored whether under-confident, accurately evaluating, and over-confident students expressed different attitudes towards their science education, and explored how under-confidence and over-confidence might influence students' science intentions. The questionnaire responses of 1523 students from 12 secondary schools in England were considered through analysis of variance and predictive modelling. Under-confident students expressed consistently lower science attitudes than accurately evaluating and over-confident students, despite reporting the same science grades as accurately evaluating students. Students' intentions to study science were predicted by different factors in different ways, depending on whether the students were under-confident, accurate, or over-confident. For accurately evaluating and over-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-efficacy beliefs (their confidence in their expected future science attainment). For under-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-concept beliefs (their confidence in currently 'doing well' or 'being good' at science). Many other differences were also apparent. Fundamentally, under-confidence may be detrimental not simply through associating with lower attitudes, but through students considering their choices in different ways. Under-confidence may accordingly require attention to help ensure that students' future choices are not unnecessarily constrained.

  17. Enjoy Healthy Food with Confidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anonymous

    2013-01-01

    The food industry is facing enormous challenges. Today’s large-scale food production negatively impacts our environment, and raw material supplies are becoming exhausted. Population-associated pressures on our planet will increase substantially in the next decade, and the number of people with obesi

  18. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  19. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario A Bertella

    Full Text Available Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  20. The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Lilia Karnizova; Hashmat Khan

    2010-01-01

    When stock prices rise, so does aggregate consumer spending. A traditional explanation for this phenomenon is based on wealth effects. However, movements of the stock market may affect consumer spending indirectly, by influencing consumer confidence. A bullish stock market may make consumers feel more optimistic about the future of the aggregate economy, and hence increase their spending. This paper investigates the existence of the consumer confidence channel of asset price transmission in C...

  1. Setting confidence intervals in coincidence search analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Baggio, L; Baggio, Lucio; Prodi, Giovanni A.

    2003-01-01

    The main technique that has been used to estimate the rate of gravitational wave (gw) bursts is to search for coincidence among times of arrival of candidate events in different detectors. Coincidences are modeled as a (possibly non-stationary) random time series background with gw events embedded in it, at random times but constant average rate. It is critical to test whether the statistics of the coincidence counts is Poisson, because the counts in a single detector often are not. At some point a number of parameters are tuned to increase the chance of detection by reducing the expected background: source direction, epoch vetoes based on sensitivity, goodness-of-fit thresholds, etc. Therefore, the significance of the confidence intervals itself has to be renormalized. This review is an insight of the state-of-the-art methods employed in the recent search performed by the International Gravitational Event Collaboration for the worldwide network of resonant bar detectors.

  2. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  3. Influence of a School-Based Cooking Course on Students' Food Preferences, Cooking Skills, and Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahr, Rola; Sibeko, Lindiwe

    2017-03-01

    A quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the influence of Project CHEF, a hands-on cooking and tasting program offered in Vancouver public schools, on students' food preferences, cooking skills, and confidence. Grade 4 and 5 students in an intervention group (n = 68) and a comparison group (n = 32) completed a survey at baseline and 2 to 3 weeks later. Students who participated in Project CHEF reported an increased familiarity and preference for the foods introduced through the program. This was statistically significant (P ≤ 0.05) for broccoli, swiss chard, carrots, and quinoa. A higher percentage of students exposed to Project CHEF reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in: cutting vegetables and fruit (97% vs 81%), measuring ingredients (67% vs 44%), using a knife (94% vs 82%), and making a balanced meal on their own (69% vs 34%). They also reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in confidence making the recipes introduced in the program: fruit salad (85% vs 81%), minestrone soup (25% vs 10%), and vegetable tofu stir fry (39% vs 26%). Involving students in hands-on cooking and tasting programs can increase their preferences for unpopular or unfamiliar foods and provide them with the skills and cooking confidence they need to prepare balanced meals.

  4. Effect of immersive workplace experience on undergraduate nurses' mental health clinical confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Christopher; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie K; Perlman, Dana; Brighton, Renee; Sumskis, Susan; Heffernan, Tim; Lee-Bates, Benjamin

    2017-02-03

    Preregistration education needs to ensure that student nurses are properly trained with the required skills and knowledge, and have the confidence to work with people who have a mental illness. With increased attention on non-traditional mental health clinical placements, further research is required to determine the effects of non-traditional mental health clinical placements on mental health clinical confidence. The aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of a non-traditional mental health clinical placement on mental health nursing clinical confidence compared to nursing students undergoing traditional clinical placements. Using the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale, the study investigated the relative effects of two placement programmes on the mental health clinical confidence of 79 nursing students. The two placement programmes included a non-traditional clinical placement of Recovery Camp and a comparison group that attended traditional clinical placements. Overall, the results indicated that, for both groups, mental health placement had a significant effect on improving mean mental health clinical confidence, both immediately upon conclusion of placement and at the 3-month follow up. Students who attended Recovery Camp reported a significant positive difference, compared to the comparison group, for ratings related to communicating effectively with clients with a mental illness, having a basic knowledge of antipsychotic medications and their side-effects, and providing client education regarding the effects and side-effects of medications. The findings suggest that a unique clinical placement, such as Recovery Camp, can improve and maintain facets of mental health clinical confidence for students of nursing. © 2017 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  5. Increased reports of measles in a low endemic region during a rubella outbreak in adult populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurata, Takako; Kanbayashi, Daiki; Nishimura, Hiroshi; Komano, Jun; Kase, Tetsuo; Takahashi, Kazuo

    2015-06-01

    In 2013, a rubella outbreak was observed in Japan, Romania, and Poland. The outbreak in Japan was accompanied by an increase of measles reports, especially from a region where measles is highly controlled. This was attributed to the adult populations affected by this rubella outbreak, similarity of clinical signs between rubella and measles, sufficiently small impact of measles outbreaks from neighboring nations, and elimination levels of measles endemicity. Current and future concerns for measles control are discussed.

  6. Rapid increase in cystic volume of an anaplastic astrocytoma misdiagnosed as neurocysticercosis: A case report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hong-Jiang; Han, Hong-Xiu; Feng, Dong-Fu

    2016-01-01

    Reports describing a rapid increase in the cystic volume of anaplastic astrocytoma (AA) in a short time frame are rare. The present study reports the case of a 68-year-old male who was admitted to the No. 9 People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine (Shanghai, China), with a small cystic brain lesion and positive immunological testing for cysticercosis. Head magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed a cystic lesion, 6 mm in diameter, in the left frontal lobe. Neurocysticercosis was suspected and the patient was treated with a clinical trial of albendazole and steroids. A period of 25 days later, the patient's condition had deteriorated, and MRI revealed a cystic lesion in the left frontal lobe; thereafter, the cystic lesion was removed and a diagnosis of AA was established. The tumor was soft, ivory white and gelatinous due to myxoid degeneration. In this case, tumor-related angiogenesis and microvascular extravasation (blood-brain barrier disruption) may have been the main cause of the rapid increase in the cystic volume in such a short time frame. The similarity of the glioma and cysticercus antigens may have been the cause of the positive reactions in the cystic fluid. The present study reports the rare occurrence of a rapid increase of cystic volume and potential diagnostic difficulties. PMID:27698865

  7. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low....... Consumer confidence and the output gap are also highly positively correlated. In fact, we find that consumer confidence does not contain independent information (i.e. information over and above that contained by the output gap) about expected returns. Our use of European data allows us to examine both...... aggregate European and local-country data on consumer confidence and output gaps. We find that even local-country consumer confidence does not contain independent information about expected returns. Our findings have asset pricing implication: We show taht the cross-country distribution of expected returns...

  8. Increased spasticity from a fracture in the baclofen catheter caused by Charcot spine: case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindra, Vijay M; Ray, Wilson Z; Sayama, Christina M; Dailey, Andrew T

    2015-04-01

    In patients with Charcot spine, a loss of normal feedback response from the insensate spine results in spinal neuropathy. Increasing deformity, which can manifest as sitting imbalance, crepitus, or increased back pain, can result. We present the case of a patient with a high-thoracic spinal cord injury (SCI) who subsequently developed a Charcot joint at the T10-11 level that resulted in a dramatic increase in previously controlled spasticity after fracture of an existing baclofen catheter. The 68-year-old man with T4 paraplegia presented with increasing baclofen requirements and radiographic evidence of fracture of the intrathecal baclofen catheter with an associated Charcot joint with extensive bony destruction. The neuropathic spinal arthropathy caused mechanical baclofen catheter malfunction and resulting increased spasticity. The patient was found to have transected both his spinal cord and the baclofen catheter. Treatment consisted of removal of the catheter and stabilization with long-segment instrumentation and fusion from T6 to L2. Follow-up radiographs obtained a year and a half after surgery showed no evidence of hardware failure or significant malalignment. The patient has experienced resolution of symptoms and does not require oral or intrathecal baclofen. This is the only reported case of a Charcot spine causing intrathecal catheter fracture, leading to increased spasticity. This noteworthy case suggests that late spinal instability should be considered in the setting of SCI and increased spasticity.

  9. Confidence Intervals from One One Observation

    CERN Document Server

    Rodriguez, Carlos C

    2008-01-01

    Robert Machol's surprising result, that from a single observation it is possible to have finite length confidence intervals for the parameters of location-scale models, is re-produced and extended. Two previously unpublished modifications are included. First, Herbert Robbins nonparametric confidence interval is obtained. Second, I introduce a technique for obtaining confidence intervals for the scale parameter of finite length in the logarithmic metric. Keywords: Theory/Foundations , Estimation, Prior Distributions, Non-parametrics & Semi-parametrics Geometry of Inference, Confidence Intervals, Location-Scale models

  10. Prolonged menstruation and increased menstrual blood with generalized δ electroencephalogram power: A case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Fenghua; Zhang, Lianping

    2014-03-01

    Estradiol changes associated with the menstrual cycle have a great impact on brain activation. δ frequency mainly appears during normal sleep status or brain injury diseases, including encephalitis and mental confusion. The current case report presents a 51-year-old female with prolonged menstruation and increased menstrual blood volume whose electroencephalogram (EEG) recording demonstrated a rare generalized 3 Hz δ frequency band in the waking status. The patient had been suffering from heart palpitations and dizziness for 6 months and was receiving treatment in the Department of Neurology (Second Xiangya Hospital). The individual had been experiencing prolonged menstruation and increased menstrual blood volume for 6 years. Gynecologial examination revealed secondary anemia and hysteromyoma. Hemoglobin levels were decreased to 69 g/l. Physical and neurological examinations, and computed tomography results appeared normal. The EEG recording indicated a generalized 3 Hz δ frequency band with 30-80 μV power and a long-range δ frequency band when the patient was hyperventilating. The prolonged menstruation and increased menstrual blood volume may have induced the generalized δ frequency without brain injury. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first formal case report of prolonged menstruation and increased menstrual blood volume with the abnormality of δ EEG power.

  11. Cheap Talk and Credibility: The Consequences of Confidence and Accuracy on Advisor Credibility and Persuasiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sah, Sunita; Moore, Don A.; MacCoun, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Is it possible to increase one's influence simply by behaving more confidently? Prior research presents two competing hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the…

  12. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  13. Resolving Differences among Methods of Establishing Confidence Limits for Test Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glutting, Joseph J.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    This paper discusses the basic theory underlying confidence limits and presents reasons why psychologists should incorporate confidence ranges in their psychodiagnostic reports. Four methods for establishing confidence limits are compared. Three of the methods involve estimated true scores, and the fourth is the standard error of measurement…

  14. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Löwer

    Full Text Available Next generation sequencing (NGS has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR, to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence. All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50, none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set.

  15. Improving the Skills and Confidence of Early Childhood Public School Teachers in Their Use of Observation Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arzoumanian, Linda Lee

    This practicum report describes an intervention to increase teachers' skill and confidence in the use of classroom observation techniques in a school serving children from kindergarten through second grade. Goals of the intervention were that teachers would: (1) recognize six types of observation; (2) implement two types of observation in their…

  16. Increased symptom reporting persists in 1990-1991 Gulf War veterans 20 years post deployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwini, Stella M; Forbes, Andrew B; Kelsall, Helen L; Ikin, Jillian F; Sim, Malcolm R

    2015-12-01

    Following the 1990-1991 Gulf War, Gulf War veterans (veterans) reported health symptoms more commonly than non-deployed groups. This article examines symptom persistence, incidence and prevalence 20 years on. In 2000-2003 and 2011-2012, a 63-item symptom checklist was administered to 697 veterans and 659 comparison group. Symptomatology was compared using log-binomial regression. Both veterans and comparison group reported significantly increased prevalence (3-52%) over time in more than half the symptoms, with a similar overall rate of increase. Half the symptoms had higher incidence (risk-ratios ranged 1.43-1.50) and a quarter were more persistent (risk-ratios ranged 1.12-1.20) in veterans than the comparison group. Symptomatology increased in both groups over time, but persisted to a similar extent and had higher incidence among veterans than the comparison group. The gap in symptom prevalence between the two groups remained unchanged. These findings suggest enduring health consequences of Gulf War service. © 2015 Commonwealth of Australia. American Journal of Industrial Medicine © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. 75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 Waste Confidence Decision Update AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Update and final revision of Waste Confidence Decision. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission... update to the Decision were products of rulemaking proceedings designed to assess the degree of...

  18. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Oshins

    2014-01-01

    Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  19. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  20. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the trea

  1. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  2. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the

  3. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  4. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  5. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  6. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  7. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  8. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  9. Lower confidence limits for structure reliability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Jiading; LI Ji

    2006-01-01

    For a class of data often arising in engineering,we have developed an approach to compute the lower confidence limit for structure reliability with a given confidence level.Especially,in a case with no failure and a case with only one failure,the concrete computational methods are presented.

  10. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  11. Do walking strategies to increase physical activity reduce reported sitting in workplaces: a randomized control trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burton Nicola W

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Interventions designed to increase workplace physical activity may not automatically reduce high volumes of sitting, a behaviour independently linked to chronic diseases such as obesity and type II diabetes. This study compared the impact two different walking strategies had on step counts and reported sitting times. Methods Participants were white-collar university employees (n = 179; age 41.3 ± 10.1 years; 141 women, who volunteered and undertook a standardised ten-week intervention at three sites. Pre-intervention step counts (Yamax SW-200 and self-reported sitting times were measured over five consecutive workdays. Using pre-intervention step counts, employees at each site were randomly allocated to a control group (n = 60; maintain normal behaviour, a route-based walking group (n = 60; at least 10 minutes sustained walking each workday or an incidental walking group (n = 59; walking in workday tasks. Workday step counts and reported sitting times were re-assessed at the beginning, mid- and endpoint of intervention and group mean± SD steps/day and reported sitting times for pre-intervention and intervention measurement points compared using a mixed factorial ANOVA; paired sample-t-tests were used for follow-up, simple effect analyses. Results A significant interactive effect (F = 3.5; p t = 3.9, p t = 2.5, p Conclusion Compared to controls, both route and incidental walking increased physical activity in white-collar employees. Our data suggests that workplace walking, particularly through incidental movement, also has the potential to decrease employee sitting times, but there is a need for on-going research using concurrent and objective measures of sitting, standing and walking.

  12. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  13. The computation of Buehler confidence limits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG; Xiangzhong; CHEN; Jiading

    2005-01-01

    In medicine and industry, small sample size often arises owing to the high test cost. Then exact confidence inference is important. Buehler confidence limit is a kind of exact confidence limit for the function of parameters in a model. It can be always defined if the order in sample space is given. But the computing problem is often difficult, especially for the cases with high dimension parameter or with incomplete data. This paper presents an algorithm to compute the Buehler confidence limits by EM algorithm. This is the firsttime usage of EM algorithm on Buehler confidence limits, but the algorithm is often used for maximum likelihood estimate in literatures. Three computation examples are given to illustrate the method.

  14. Increasing the productivity of short-rotation Populus plantations. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeBell, D.S.; Harrington, C.A.; Clendenen, G.W.; Radwan, M.A.; Zasada, J.C. [Forest Service, Olympia, WA (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station

    1997-12-31

    This final report represents the culmination of eight years of biological research devoted to increasing the productivity of short rotation plantations of Populus trichocarpa and Populus hybrids in the Pacific Northwest. Studies provide an understanding of tree growth, stand development and biomass yield at various spacings, and how patterns differ by Populus clone in monoclonal and polyclonal plantings. Also included is some information about factors related to wind damage in Populus plantings, use of leaf size as a predictor of growth potential, and approaches for estimating tree and stand biomass and biomass growth. Seven research papers are included which provide detailed methods, results, and interpretations on these topics.

  15. Placebo Problem In Acupuncture Studies and Interventions to Increase Report Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Volkan Acar

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Studies for acupuncture that has been used as a medical therapeutic method for thousands of years in Far East, is being increased in Western world. In parallel to this increase, there raised several methodologic problems. The most important one of these is the choice of control procedure. If a valid and credible control method has not been chosen, these ‘placebo acupuncture’ or ‘sham acupuncture’ controls could make a negative impact on the study results. In this paper, these different sham acupuncture methods are dis-cussed to find an optimal control procedure. The second major problem which was encountered with acupuncture studies is related with the reporting of interventions. Like CONSORT checklist in conventional medicine, STRICTA recommendations list is prepared for the controlled acupuncture trials. In conclusion, to choose a valid and credible control procedure and to follow CONSORT checklist and STRICTA recommendations will improve the quality of acupuncture studies.

  16. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  17. Anatomy-Specific Virtual Reality Simulation in Temporal Bone Dissection: Perceived Utility and Impact on Surgeon Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locketz, Garrett D; Lui, Justin T; Chan, Sonny; Salisbury, Kenneth; Dort, Joseph C; Youngblood, Patricia; Blevins, Nikolas H

    2017-06-01

    Objective To evaluate the effect of anatomy-specific virtual reality (VR) surgical rehearsal on surgeon confidence and temporal bone dissection performance. Study Design Prospective pre- and poststudy of a novel virtual surgical rehearsal platform. Setting Academic otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residency training programs. Subjects and Methods Sixteen otolaryngology-head and neck surgery residents from 2 North American training institutions were recruited. Surveys were administered to assess subjects' baseline confidence in performing 12 subtasks of cortical mastoidectomy with facial recess. A cadaver temporal bone was randomly assigned to each subject. Cadaver specimens were scanned with a clinical computed tomography protocol, allowing the creation of anatomy-specific models for use in a VR surgical rehearsal platform. Subjects then rehearsed a virtual mastoidectomy on data sets derived from their specimens. Surgical confidence surveys were administered again. Subjects then dissected assigned cadaver specimens, which were blindly graded with a modified Welling scale. A final survey assessed the perceived utility of rehearsal on dissection performance. Results Of 16 subjects, 14 (87.5%) reported a significant increase in overall confidence after conducting an anatomy-specific VR rehearsal. A significant correlation existed between perceived utility of rehearsal and confidence improvement. The effect of rehearsal on confidence was dependent on trainee experience and the inherent difficulty of the surgical subtask. Postrehearsal confidence correlated strongly with graded dissection performance. Subjects rated anatomy-specific rehearsal as having a moderate to high contribution to their dissection performance. Conclusion Anatomy-specific virtual rehearsal improves surgeon confidence in performing mastoid dissection, dependent on surgeon experience and task difficulty. The subjective confidence gained through rehearsal correlates positively with subsequent

  18. High-Confidence Quantum Gate Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Blake; da Silva, Marcus; Ryan, Colm; Kimmel, Shelby; Donovan, Brian; Ohki, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Debugging and verification of high-fidelity quantum gates requires the development of new tools and protocols to unwrap the performance of the gate from the rest of the sequence. Randomized benchmarking tomography[2] allows one to extract full information of the unital portion of the gate with high confidence. We report experimental confirmation of the technique's applicability to quantum gate tomography. We show that the method is robust to common experimental imperfections such as imperfect single-shot readout and state preparation. We also demonstrate the ability to characterize non-Clifford gates. To assist in the experimental implementation we introduce two techniques. ``Atomic Cliffords'' use phase ramping and frame tracking to allow single-pulse implementation of the full group of single-qubit Clifford gates. Domain specific pulse sequencers allow rapid implementation of the many thousands of sequences needed. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), through the Army Research Office contract no. W911NF-10-1-0324.

  19. Pregnancy-associated breast cancer and increased risk of pregnancy-associated recurrence: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schnabel Freya

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Pregnancy-associated breast cancer refers to breast cancer diagnosed during pregnancy, lactation, or within twelve months postpartum. Recent studies suggest that, when matched for age and stage, the prognosis of pregnancy-associated breast cancer is comparable to non-pregnancy-associated breast cancer. However, the risk for breast cancer recurrence associated with subsequent pregnancies in this population is not clear. Case presentation We describe the case of a Caucasian woman who was initially treated for pregnancy-associated breast cancer at age 23, three months after the birth of her third child. She underwent a total mastectomy with axillary node dissection, followed by chemotherapy and hormonal therapy. Ten years later, when the patient was 24 weeks pregnant with her fourth child, she presented with an ipsilateral chest wall recurrence of breast cancer. To the best of our knowledge, this represents the first reported case of a pregnancy-associated recurrence in a patient previously treated for pregnancy-associated breast cancer. Conclusion The case described here is the first report of a second occurrence of pregnancy-associated breast cancer. This case raises the possibility that pregnancy may represent a unique trigger for breast malignancy in a specific cohort of women. Although there is data showing no increase in the risk of recurrence for women who become pregnant after breast cancer treatment, pregnancy-associated breast cancer may be a distinct clinical category where subsequent pregnancies after treatment may confer an increased risk of recurrent disease.

  20. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    Vanden Broeck, Renilde

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC) in 2007. (1/2 page)

  2. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007." (1/2 page)

  3. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  4. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  5. Medical students' perceptions regarding the importance of nutritional knowledge and their confidence in providing competent nutrition practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlstein, R; McCoombe, S; Shaw, C; Nowson, C

    2016-11-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the perceived importance, knowledge and confidence in nutritional management in a sample of Australian medical students undertaking a 4-year postgraduate medical degree. In 2015, students in years 1-4 were anonymously surveyed to assess students' perceived importance of nutrition, and knowledge and confidence in nutritional management. A total of 131 first and second year (preclinical/yr 1-2) medical students (46% response rate) and 66 third and fourth year (clinical/yr 3-4) students (24% response rate) completed the questionnaire. Most preclinical students agreed that medical graduates should understand nutritional issues in managing cardiovascular disease (99%), type 2 diabetes (93%), coeliac disease (95%), and renal impairment (97%). However, students were limited in their confidence to demonstrate this knowledge (range of confidence: 26%-41%) for individual medical conditions. This improved for students in the clinical context of years 3 and 4, although it was still not optimal (range 26%-81%). Few year 3 and 4 students reported confidence in knowledge related to medicolegal issues, respiratory disease, nutritional guidelines and nutrition assessment (all 80%) reported confidence in the dietary management of type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and coeliac disease and >60% indicated they would refer onto nutrition professionals. This cohort of postgraduate medical students recognize the importance of nutrition in disease. The number of students reporting increased confidence in nutritional management of a few select diseases where dietary management is one of the cornerstones of treatment (e.g. type 2 diabetes) rises throughout the course. However, students reported lower levels of knowledge in diseases where diet is secondary to other treatments and preventative strategies (e.g. respiratory disease). Filling the gap by integrating the nutritional management into the range of common chronic diseases during training

  6. Confidence intervals for the MMPI-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munley, P H

    1991-08-01

    The confidence intervals for the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-2) clinical scales were investigated. Based on the clinical scale reliabilities published in the MMPI-2 manual, estimated true scores, standard errors of measurement for estimated true scores, and 95% confidence intervals centered around estimated true scores were calculated at 5-point MMPI-2 T-score intervals. The relationships between obtained T-scores, estimated true T-scores, scale reliabilities, and confidence intervals are discussed. The possible role of error measurement in defining scale high point and code types is noted.

  7. Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data

    OpenAIRE

    Lachowska, Marta

    2013-01-01

    The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer confidence contains information relevant to predicting spending, independent from other indicators. T...

  8. The increase of plasma galectin-9 in a patient with insulin allergy: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chagan-Yasutan Haorile

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Allergic reaction to insulin is known to be associated with eosinophilia and hyper IgE. Recent report showed that eosinophilia is related with the increased synthesis of galectin-9 (GAL-9 and osteopontin (OPN. Here, we examined plasma levels of GAL-9 and OPN first time in a case of 65-year old patient with insulin allergy. Insulin aspart & insulin aspart 30 mix were given to the patient and an elevation of the eosinophil count (8440/μl, 17.6 fold and a moderate increase of IgE (501 U/ml, reference range: 10-350 U/ml, eotaxin-3 (168 pg/ml, 2 fold, histamine (0.95 ng/ml, 5.3 fold were found 33 days later. The plasma levels of GAL-9 and OPN were 22.5 and 1.7 fold higher than the cut-off point, respectively. After one month cessation of insulin therapy, elevations of the eosinophil count (3,480/μl; 7.3 fold, and OPN (1.4 fold still occurred but the GAL-9 levels became normal. Therefore, we noted the increases of GAL-9 and OPN in plasma for the first time in a patient with insulin allergy and propose that GAL-9 reflects the conditions of allergy more accurately.

  9. Increased bias to report heat or pain following emotional priming of pain-related fear.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwilliam, S S; Derbyshire, S W G

    2008-07-01

    Emotional and attentional factors have been identified to play a significant role in modulating pain perception with negative emotions increasing pain sensitivity. Recent studies suggest that fearful images may activate the attentional components of fear driven behaviours and facilitate an attentional bias or sensitivity toward noxious stimuli. The current investigation examines whether priming of pain-related fear will affect performance by increasing sensitivity to punctuate heat stimuli. A modified version of the visual dot probe task was employed to provide priming of pain-related fear and a heat detection task was used to measure the effects of priming on sensitivity. The results indicated a significant facilitation of heat and pain perception at varying temperatures following emotional priming. In particular, there was an increase in the bias toward reporting a heat stimulus following emotional priming. The findings emphasise the efficacy of the visual dot probe task as a method of priming and provide a possible method for probing hypervigilance in chronic pain patients.

  10. The Asteroid Identification Problem. II. Target Plane Confidence Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

    1999-08-01

    important. We apply this technique to discuss the recent case of asteroid 1997 XF11, which, on the basis of the observations available up to March 11, 1998, appeared to be on an orbit with a near miss of the Earth in 2028. Although the least squares solution had a close approach at 1/8 of the lunar distance, the linear confidence regions corresponding to acceptable size of the residuals are very elongated ellipses which do not include collision; this computation was reported by Chodas and Yeomans. In this paper, we compute the semilinear confidence boundaries and find that they agree with the results of the Monte Carlo method, but differ in a significant way from the linear ellipses, although the differences occur only far from the Earth. The use of the 1990 prediscovery observations has confirmed the impossibility of an impact in 2028 and reduces the semilinear confidence regions to subsets of the regions computed with less data, as expected. The confidence regions computed using the linear approximation, on the other hand, do not reduce to subsets of the regions computed with less data. We also discuss a simulated example (Bowell and Muinonen 1992, Bull. Am. Astron. Soc.24, 965) of an Earth-impacting asteroid. In this hypothetical case the semilinear confidence boundary has a completely different shape from the linear ellipse, and indeed for orbits determined with only few weeks of observational data the semilinear confidence boundary correctly includes possible collisions, while the linear one does not. Free software is available now, allowing everyone to compute target plane confidence boundaries as in this paper; in case a new asteroid with worrisome close approaches is discovered, our method allows to quickly perform an accurate risk assessment.

  11. The Development of a Measure of Confidence in Delivering Therapy to People with Intellectual Disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dagnan, Dave; Masson, John; Cavagin, Amy; Thwaites, Richard; Hatton, Chris

    2015-01-01

    Current policy in UK health services emphasizes that, where possible, people with intellectual disabilities should access the same services as people without intellectual disabilities. One of the barriers to this is the confidence of clinicians and therapists. In this paper, we report on the development of a scale to describe the confidence of therapists in working with people with intellectual disabilities (the Therapy Confidence Scale-Intellectual Disabilities [TCS-ID]). One-hundred and eighty-one therapists who provided talking therapies but who did not work primarily with people with intellectual disabilities completed the scale; 43 people completed the scale twice for test-retest reliability purposes. One-hundred and seven people also completed a scale of general therapy self-efficacy. The TCS-ID has a single factor structure accounting for 62% of the variance, Cronbach's alpha for the scale is 0.93 and test-retest reliability is 0.83. There are significant differences in confidence based upon participants experience in working with people with intellectual disabilities and their therapeutic orientation, and there is a significant association between the TCS-ID and the General Therapy Self-efficacy Scale. Sixty clinicians working in mainstream mental health services received training on adapting their therapeutic approaches to meet the needs of people with intellectual disabilities. The TCS-ID was used pre-training and post-training and demonstrated a significant increase in confidence for all group. We suggest that the scale has good psychometric properties and can be used to develop an understanding of the impact of training for mainstream therapist in working with people with intellectual disabilities. There is increasing emphasis on people with intellectual disabilities receiving services from mainstream mental health services. There is no research describing the experiences and outcomes of people with intellectual disabilities receiving mainstream talking

  12. Development of a Questionnaire To Examine Confidence of Occupational Therapy Students during Fieldwork Experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derdall, Michele; Olson, Peggy; Janzen, Wonita; Warren, Sharon

    2002-01-01

    An instrument to measure occupational therapy students' self-confidence during field work was tested with 70 Canadian students. Results demonstrates that confidence increases during placement and grows higher in later placements. Student characteristics and placement settings had no significant effect on confidence. (SK)

  13. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  14. A longitudinal study of well-being, confidence and competence in junior doctors and the impact of emergency medicine placements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Suzanne; O'Keeffe, Colin; Carter, Angela; Stride, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To measure levels of, and change in junior doctor well-being, confidence and self-reported competence over their second postgraduate training year and the impact of emergency department (ED) placements on these outcomes. Design A longitudinal study using an online survey administered at four time points (2010–2011). Setting 28 Acute Hospital Trusts, drawn from nine participating Postgraduate Deaneries in England. Participants Junior doctors who had a placement in an ED as part of their second postgraduate training year. Main outcome measures Levels of anxiety, depression, motivation, job satisfaction, confidence and self-reported competence, collected at four time points spread over the period of the doctor's second training year (F2). Results 217 junior doctors were recruited to the study. Over the year there was a significant increase in their overall job satisfaction, confidence and self-reported competence. Junior doctors also reported significantly increased levels of motivation and anxiety, and significantly decreased levels of extrinsic job satisfaction when working in ED compared with other specialties. There were also significant increases in both junior doctor confidence and self-reported competence after their placement in ED relative to other specialties. Conclusions While elements of junior doctor well-being worsened in their ED placement compared with their time spent in other specialties, the increased levels of anxiety and reduced extrinsic job satisfaction were within the normal range for other healthcare workers. These deficits were also balanced by greater improvements in motivation, confidence in managing common acute clinical conditions and perceived competence in performing acute procedures compared with benefits offered by placements in other specialties. PMID:26338523

  15. European Businesses Remain Confident about China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ On June 30th, 2009, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey, which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

  16. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  17. Confidence intervals with a priori parameter bounds

    CERN Document Server

    Lokhov, A V

    2014-01-01

    We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution of the problem. Derived are the solutions for the cases of a continuous distribution with non-negative estimated parameter and a discrete distribution, specifically a Poisson process with background. For both cases, the best upper limit is constructed that accounts for the a priori information. A table is provided with the confidence intervals for the parameter of Poisson distribution that correctly accounts for the information on the known value of the background along with the software for calculating the confidence intervals for any confidence levels and magnitudes of the background (the software is freely available for download via Internet).

  18. When business is a confidence game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, J W; Alba, J W

    2001-06-01

    When it comes to making business decisions, being overconfident about your choices can actually be more harmful than just guessing. Here's how managers can calibrate their confidence levels-and avoid being too sure in the wrong situations.

  19. Adult Neuroblastoma Complicated by Increased Intracranial Pressure: A Case Report and Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick L. Stevens

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Neuroblastoma is the third most commonly occurring malignancy of the pediatric population, although it is extremely rare in the adult population. In adults, neuroblastoma is often metastatic and portends an extremely poor overall survival. Our case report documents metastatic neuroblastoma occurring in a healthy 29-year-old woman whose course was complicated by an unusual presentation of elevated intracranial pressures. The patient was treated with systemic chemotherapy, I131 metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG radiotherapy, and autologous stem cell transplant (SCT. Unfortunately the patient’s response to therapy was limited and she subsequently died. We aim to review neuroblastoma in the context of increased intracranial pressure and the limited data of neuroblastoma occurring in the adult population, along with proposed treatment options.

  20. Better Confidence Intervals for Importance Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    HALIS SAK; WOLFGANG HÖRMANN; JOSEF LEYDOLD

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that for highly skewed distributions the standard method of using the t statistic for the confidence interval of the mean does not give robust results. This is an important problem for importance sampling (IS) as its final distribution is often skewed due to a heavy tailed weight distribution. In this paper, we first explain Hall's transformation and its variants to correct the confidence interval of the mean and then evaluate the performance of these methods for two numerica...

  1. Increasing the biomass production of short rotation coppice forests. Progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinbeck, K.; Brown, C.L.

    1978-03-01

    Progress is reported in research to increase biomass yields from coppice forests by admixing the nitrogen fixing tree Alnus glutinosa to plantations of Plantanus occidentalis and Liquidambar styraciflua. Plantations to compare growth rates of pure and mixed plots of the three species have been established on two sites in Georgia. Locations were selected on the basis of physiographic province (Piedmont and Coastal Plain) on soils which probably will be available for short rotation forestry. Propagation techniques for mass-cloning Platanus occidentalis using single buds and internodes of dormant or active twigs from young trees were developed. Tissue culture procedures were used to induce bud and root formation in callus cultures of Robinia and Gleditsia. Research dealing with fluctuations in starch and sugar levels in coppiced root systems of sycamore during the winter is reported. Total available carbohydrates ranged from 15 to 26 percent of root dry weight and starch to sugar conversion was detected. However, more starch disappeared than could be accounted for by the concomitant rise of sugar levels. There were some differences between annually coppiced root systems and those cut every two years. (JGB)

  2. DRY NEEDLING INCREASES MUSCLE THICKNESS IN A SUBJECT WITH PERSISTENT MUSCLE DYSFUNCTION: A CASE REPORT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Kevin M; McMurray, Michael

    2017-06-01

    Muscle dysfunction is very common following musculoskeletal injury. There is very little evidence to suggest that muscle function may be positively impacted by soft tissue interventions, such as dry needling. The purpose of this case report is to describe the immediate effect of dry needling on muscle thickness in a subject after shoulder surgery. A 22 year-old competitive gymnast presented seven months post shoulder surgery with significant impairments and functional limitations. Previous physical therapy focused on restoration of range of motion and strength using general exercise interventions, but the subject had persistent tightness and weakness of musculature of the shoulder complex. A subject-specific physical therapy program including manual physical therapy resulted in significant initial improvement, but lack of flexibility and weakness of the rotator cuff limited progress. Dry needling was used to address persistent myofascial trigger points. Immediately after dry needling the infraspinatus, the muscle's thickness was significantly improved as measured by rehabilitative ultrasound imaging. There was a corresponding increase in force production of external rotation at 90 degrees of abduction. Minimal research exists that validates the potential of dry needling on muscle function, as assessed by muscle thickness measured using rehabilitative ultrasound imaging. The results of this case report suggest that dry needling contributed to improvement in muscle thickness and strength in a subject with muscle dysfunction following an injury. 4.

  3. Persistent increase in cardiac troponin I in Fabry disease: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schneider Christian

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is a frequent manifestation in Fabry disease (FD - an X-linked lysosomal storage disorder caused by reduced activity of the enzyme α-galactosidase A. In FD an elevation of specific cardiac biomarkers, such as cardiac troponin I (cTNI has been reported in case of clinical manifestation suggestive of myocardial ischemia. In diagnosing acute myocardial infarction cTNI is considered the most reliable parameter. Case Presentation In the referred case we present a 59 years old female patient with the diagnosis of FD presenting with persistently increased cTNI level (lowest value 0.46 ng/ml, highest value 0.69 ng/ml; normal range Conclusions Our case report demonstrates a persistent cTNI release in FD with cardiac involvement. Proving the persistence in a symptom free interval, it might be related to a direct damage of myocytes. In FD cTNI could serve as a beneficial long term parameter providing new perspectives for screening strategies.

  4. Confidence in value-based choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Fleming, Stephen M.; Garrett, Neil; Dolan, Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Summary Decisions are never perfect with confidence in one’s choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that an fMRI signal in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflects both value comparison and confidence in the value comparison process. Crucially, individuals varied in how they related confidence to accuracy, allowing us to show that this introspective ability is predicted by a measure of functional connectivity between vmPFC and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (rlPFC). Our findings provide a mechanistic link between noise in value comparison and metacognitive awareness of choice, enabling us both to want and to express knowledge of what we want. PMID:23222911

  5. Preparedness for eHealth: Health Sciences Students’ Knowledge, Skills, and Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary Lam

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available There is increasing recognition of the role eHealth will play in the effective and efficient delivery of healthcare. This research challenges the assumption that students enter university as digital natives, able to confidently and competently adapt their use of information and communication technology (ICT to new contexts. This study explored health sciences students’ preparedness for working, and leading change, in eHealth-enabled environments. Using a cross-sectional study design, 420 undergraduate and postgraduate students participated in an online survey investigating their understanding of and attitude towards eHealth, frequency of online activities and software usage, confidence learning and using ICTs, and perceived learning needs. Although students reported that they regularly engaged with a wide range of online activities and software and were confident learning new ICT skills especially where they have sufficient time or support, their understanding of eHealth was uncertain or limited. Poor understanding of and difficulty translating skills learned in personal contexts to the professional context may impair graduates ability to con-fidently engage in the eHealth-enabled workplace. These results suggest educators need to scaffold the learning experience to ensure students build on their ICT knowledge to transfer this to their future workplaces.

  6. Brief report: Does PTH increase with age, independent of 25-hydroxyvitamin D, phosphate, renal function, and ionized calcium?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrivick, Simon J; Walsh, John P; Brown, Suzanne J; Wardrop, Robert; Hadlow, Narelle C

    2015-05-01

    Circulating PTH concentrations increase with age. It is uncertain whether an age-related PTH increase occurs independent of changes in circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D, phosphate, renal function, and ionized calcium. The purpose of this article was to analyze the relationship between PTH and age, controlling for 25-hydroxyvitamin D, phosphate, renal function, and ionized calcium. This was a retrospective, cross-sectional study analyzing the relationship between PTH and age in 2 independent datasets (laboratory 1, n = 17 275 and laboratory 2, n = 4878). We further analyzed subgroups after excluding participants with estimated glomerular filtration rate of increase in age was associated with a 5.0% increase in PTH (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.4%-5.6%; P increase in laboratory 2 (95% CI, 3.0%-5.4%; P increase in age was associated with a 6.1% increase in PTH (95% CI, 5.5%-6.8%; P increase (95% CI 3.5%-6.2%; P increase with age, independent of 25-hydroxyvitamin D, ionized calcium, phosphate, and renal function. Further research is required to explore the underlying mechanisms and clinical relevance and to determine whether the use of age-related PTH reference ranges improves diagnostic accuracy, particularly in elderly individuals.

  7. Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel B

    2007-02-01

    Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

  8. Confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schinkel, Stefan [Interdisciplinary Centre for Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Potsdam (Germany)], E-mail: schinkel@agnld.uni-potsdam.de; Marwan, N. [Interdisciplinary Centre for Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Potsdam (Germany); Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); Dimigen, O. [Department of Psychology, University of Potsdam (Germany); Kurths, J. [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) (Germany); Department of Physics, Humboldt University at Berlin (Germany)

    2009-06-15

    In the recent past, recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) has gained an increasing interest in various research areas. The complexity measures the RQA provides have been useful in describing and analysing a broad range of data. It is known to be rather robust to noise and nonstationarities. Yet, one key question in empirical research concerns the confidence bounds of measured data. In the present Letter we suggest a method for estimating the confidence bounds of recurrence-based complexity measures. We study the applicability of the suggested method with model and real-life data.

  9. Increasing Capacity for Stewardship of Oceans and Coasts: Findings of the National Research Council Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, S. J.; Feeley, M. H.

    2008-05-01

    With the increasing stress on ocean and coastal resources, ocean resource management will require greater capacity in terms of people, institutions, technology and tools. Successful capacity-building efforts address the needs of a specific locale or region and include plans to maintain and expand capacity after the project ends. In 2008, the US National Research Council published a report that assesses past and current capacity-building efforts to identify barriers to effective management of coastal and marine resources. The report recommends ways that governments and organizations can strengthen marine conservation and management capacity. Capacity building programs instill the tools, knowledge, skills, and attitudes that address: ecosystem function and change; processes of governance that influence societal and ecosystem change; and assembling and managing interdisciplinary teams. Programs require efforts beyond traditional sector-by-sector planning because marine ecosystems range from the open ocean to coastal waters and land use practices. Collaboration among sectors, scaling from local community-based management to international ocean policies, and ranging from inland to offshore areas, will be required to establish coordinated and efficient governance of ocean and coastal ecosystems. Barriers Most capacity building activities have been initiated to address particular issues such as overfishing or coral reef degradation, or they target a particular region or country facing threats to their marine resources. This fragmentation inhibits the sharing of information and experience and makes it more difficult to design and implement management approaches at appropriate scales. Additional barriers that have limited the effectiveness of capacity building programs include: lack of an adequate needs assessment prior to program design and implementation; exclusion of targeted populations in decision- making efforts; mismanagement, corruption, or both; incomplete or

  10. Enhancing women's confidence for physiologic birth: Maternity care providers' perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saftner, Melissa A; Neerland, Carrie; Avery, Melissa D

    2017-10-01

    The aim of this research study was to explore MCP's beliefs and attitudes about physiologic birth and to identify components of antenatal care that providers believe may impact a woman's confidence for physiologic labor and birth. This qualitative descriptive study included maternity care providers (N=31) in the Midwestern United States. Providers participated in semi-structured interviews to describe their beliefs about physiologic birth, their role in providing information to women and specific care practices to promote women's confidence for physiologic birth. Six themes emerged including: positive beliefs about physiologic birth, trusted relationship with provider, woman centered care, education and knowledge, barriers to confidence, and antenatal practices to enhance confidence. Variations in beliefs occurred amongst providers with different training (i.e., physicians and midwives). Maternity care providers, including midwives, family physicians and obstetrician-gynecologists, overwhelmingly support a physiologic approach to labor and birth. These providers had a number of suggestions about how antenatal care could be enhanced in an effort to increase women's confidence during the antenatal period. Supporting physiologic birth is imperative for providers who wish to enhance outcomes for mothers and babies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Cultural competence knowledge and confidence after classroom activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzumdar, Jagannath Mohan; Holiday-Goodman, Monica; Black, Curtis; Powers, Mary

    2010-10-11

    To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum. Cultural competence material was covered in the second-year PharmD curriculum through lectures, laboratories, and an experiential/out-of-class assignment. Eighty-five second-year (P2) pharmacy students completed a survey which assessed influence of classroom activities related to cultural competence. Mean values for knowledge and perceived confidence were significantly higher for posttest compared to pretest (p activities. Focus groups were used to solicit students' opinions on instructional effectiveness, relevance of activities, and areas for enhancement. The cultural competency curriculum increased pharmacy students' awareness of and confidence in addressing cultural diversity issues that affect pharmaceutical care delivery.

  12. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  13. Increasing the Efficiency on Producing Radiology Reports for Breast Cancer Diagnosis by Means of Structured Reports. A Comparative Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segrelles, J Damian; Medina, Rosana; Blanquer, Ignacio; Martí-Bonmatí, Luis

    2017-05-18

    Radiology reports are commonly written on free-text using voice recognition devices. Structured reports (SR) have a high potential but they are usually considered more difficult to fill-in so their adoption in clinical practice leads to a lower efficiency. However, some studies have demonstrated that in some cases, producing SRs may require shorter time than plain-text ones. This work focuses on the definition and demonstration of a methodology to evaluate the productivity of software tools for producing radiology reports. A set of SRs for breast cancer diagnosis based on BI-RADS have been developed using this method. An analysis of their efficiency with respect to free-text reports has been performed. The methodology proposed compares the Elapsed Time (ET) on a set of radiological reports. Free-text reports are produced with the speech recognition devices used in the clinical practice. Structured reports are generated using a web application generated with TRENCADIS framework. A team of six radiologists with three different levels of experience in the breast cancer diagnosis was recruited. These radiologists performed the evaluation, each one introducing 50 reports for mammography, 50 for ultrasound scan and 50 for MRI using both approaches. Also, the Relative Efficiency (REF) was computed for each report, dividing the ET of both methods. We applied the T-Student (T-S) test to compare the ETs and the ANOVA test to compare the REFs. Both tests were computed using the SPSS software. The study produced three DICOM-SR templates for Breast Cancer Diagnosis on mammography, ultrasound and MRI, using RADLEX terms based on BIRADs 5th edition. The T-S test on radiologists with high or intermediate profile, showed that the difference between the ET was only statistically significant for mammography and ultrasound. The ANOVA test performed grouping the REF by modalities, indicated that there were no significant differences between mammograms and ultrasound scans, but both

  14. An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capraro, Mary Margaret

    This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

  15. A Survey Study of Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence about Teaching Early Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie-Qi; McCray, Jennifer; Adams, Margaret; Leow, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This study reports on results from the Early Mathematics Beliefs and Confidence Survey, administered to 346 preschool teachers in a large public school system in the Midwest. Survey results depict a much more positive view of teachers' beliefs and confidence in early math teaching than previously reported. Results also suggest that teacher…

  16. A Survey Study of Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence about Teaching Early Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie-Qi; McCray, Jennifer; Adams, Margaret; Leow, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This study reports on results from the Early Mathematics Beliefs and Confidence Survey, administered to 346 preschool teachers in a large public school system in the Midwest. Survey results depict a much more positive view of teachers' beliefs and confidence in early math teaching than previously reported. Results also suggest that teacher…

  17. A Survey Study of Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence about Teaching Early Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie-Qi; McCray, Jennifer; Adams, Margaret; Leow, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This study reports on results from the Early Mathematics Beliefs and Confidence Survey, administered to 346 preschool teachers in a large public school system in the Midwest. Survey results depict a much more positive view of teachers' beliefs and confidence in early math teaching than previously reported. Results also suggest that teacher…

  18. Increased health risk in subjects with high self-reported seasonality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas M Øyane

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Seasonal variations in mood and behaviour, termed seasonality, are commonly reported in the general population. As a part of a large cross-sectional health survey in Hordaland, Norway, we investigated the relationship between seasonality, objective health measurements and health behaviours. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 11,545 subjects between 40-44 years old participated, completing the Global Seasonality Score, measuring seasonality. Waist/hip circumference, BMI and blood pressure were measured, and blood samples were analyzed for total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides and glucose. Subjects also completed a questionnaire on miscellaneous health behaviours (exercise, smoking, alcohol consumption. Hierarchical linear regression analyses were used to investigate associations between seasonality and objective health measurements, while binary logistic regression was used for analysing associations between seasonality and health behaviours. Analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, month of questionnaire completion and sleep duration. Seasonality was positively associated with high waist-hip-ratio, BMI, triglyceride levels, and in men high total cholesterol. Seasonality was negatively associated with HDL cholesterol. In women seasonality was negatively associated with prevalence of exercise and positively associated with daily cigarette smoking. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: High seasonality was associated with objective health risk factors and in women also with health behaviours associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease.

  19. Postgraduate nursing student knowledge, attitudes, skills, and confidence in appropriately referencing academic work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, Melanie; Walkem, Kerrie; Smith, Lindsay Mervyn; Shearer, Toniele; Stirling, Christine

    2014-08-01

    Preventing plagiarism is an ongoing issue for higher education institutions. Although plagiarism has been traditionally seen as cheating, it is increasingly thought to be the result of poor referencing, with students reporting difficulties citing and referencing bibliographic sources. This study examined the academic knowledge, attitude, skills, and confidence of students in a school of nursing to understand poor referencing. A cross-sectional quantitative and qualitative survey was distributed to postgraduate (N = 1,000) certificate, diploma, and master's students. Quantitative data gathered demographics, cultural and linguistic background, and use of technology. Thematic analysis discovered patterns and themes. Results showed participants understood requirements for referencing; half indicated poor referencing was due to difficulty referencing Internet sources or losing track of sources, and many lacked confidence in key referencing tasks. Despite this, 50% did not make use of referencing resources. Overall, these data suggest incorrect referencing is rarely intentional and predominantly caused by skills deficit. Copyright 2014, SLACK Incorporated.

  20. Medical Malpractice: Insurance Costs Increased but Varied among Physicians and Hospitals. Report to Congressional Requesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Div. of Human Resources.

    This report concerns the medical malpractice situation in the United States and contains information on the cost of malpractice insurance for physicians and hospitals. The report contains an executive summary and four chapters. Chapter 1 reviews the background of the problem and the objectives, scope, and methodology of the report. Chapter 2…

  1. Maximum confidence measurements via probabilistic quantum cloning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Wen-Hai; Yu Long-Bao; Cao Zhuo-Liang; Ye Liu

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) cannot copy a set of linearly dependent quantum states.In this paper,we show that if incorrect copies are allowed to be produced,linearly dependent quantum states may also be cloned by the PQC.By exploiting this kind of PQC to clone a special set of three linearly dependent quantum states,we derive the upper bound of the maximum confidence measure of a set.An explicit transformation of the maximum confidence measure is presented.

  2. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  3. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  4. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  5. Using Facebook to enhance commencing student confidence in clinical skill development: A phenomenological hermeneutic study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Bernadette; Cooke, Marie; Walker, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore commencing nursing students' experience of Facebook as an adjunct to on-campus course delivery to determine its impact as a learning strategy for improving confidence in clinical skill development. Approaches supporting nursing students in the development of clinical skills have relied on 'real-life' clinical placements and simulated on-campus clinical laboratories. However students continue to report a lack of confidence in their clinical skills for practice. Social networking sites including Facebook are being used as a learning strategy to stimulate active and collaborative learning approaches. A hermeneutic phenomenological approach was used to provide an understanding of the experience of confidence in clinical skills development for nursing students. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with commencing students about their experience as learners using Facebook and their perceptions of the impact on their clinical skill development. Ten first-year student nurses at one university in south-east Queensland, Australia. Four themes emerged from the data including: 'We're all in this together'; 'I can do this'; 'This is about my future goals and success'; and, 'Real time is not fast enough!'. These themes provide new meaningful insights demonstrating students' sense of confidence in clinical skills was increased through engagement with a dedicated Facebook page. The findings of this study have relevance to academics in the design of learning strategies for clinical courses to further support student confidence and engagement through peer collaboration and active learning processes. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prior knowledge is more predictive of error correction than subjective confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitzman, Danielle M; Rhodes, Matthew G; Tauber, Sarah K

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has demonstrated that, when given feedback, participants are more likely to correct confidently-held errors, as compared with errors held with lower levels of confidence, a finding termed the hypercorrection effect. Accounts of hypercorrection suggest that confidence modifies attention to feedback; alternatively, hypercorrection may reflect prior domain knowledge, with confidence ratings simply correlated with this prior knowledge. In the present experiments, we attempted to adjudicate among these explanations of the hypercorrection effect. In Experiments 1a and 1b, participants answered general knowledge questions, rated their confidence, and received feedback either immediately after rating their confidence or after a delay of several minutes. Although memory for confidence judgments should have been poorer at a delay, the hypercorrection effect was equivalent for both feedback timings. Experiment 2 showed that hypercorrection remained unchanged even when the delay to feedback was increased. In addition, measures of recall for prior confidence judgments showed that memory for confidence was indeed poorer after a delay. Experiment 3 directly compared estimates of domain knowledge with confidence ratings, showing that such prior knowledge was related to error correction, whereas the unique role of confidence was small. Overall, our results suggest that prior knowledge likely plays a primary role in error correction, while confidence may play a small role or merely serve as a proxy for prior knowledge.

  7. Confidence-accuracy resolution in the misinformation paradigm is influenced by the availability of source cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horry, Ruth; Colton, Lisa-Marie; Williamson, Paul

    2014-09-01

    After witnessing an event, people often report having seen details that were merely suggested to them. Evidence is mixed regarding how well participants can use confidence judgments to discriminate between their correct and misled memory reports. We tested the prediction that the confidence-accuracy relationship for misled details depends upon the availability of source cues at retrieval. In Experiment 1, participants (N=77) viewed a videotaped staged crime before reading a misleading narrative. After seven minutes or one week, the participants completed a cued recall test for the details of the original event. Prior to completing the test, all participants were warned that the narrative contained misleading details to encourage source monitoring. The results showed that the strength of the confidence-accuracy relationship declined significantly over the delay. We interpret our results in the source monitoring framework. After an extended delay, fewer diagnostic source details were available to participants, increasing reliance on retrieval fluency as a basis for memory and metamemory decisions. We tested this interpretation in a second experiment, in which participants (N=42) completed a source monitoring test instead of a cued recall test. We observed a large effect of retention interval on source monitoring, and no significant effect on item memory. This research emphasizes the importance of securing eyewitness statements as soon as possible after an event, when witnesses are most able to discriminate between information that was personally seen and information obtained from secondary sources. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. INCREASE IN THE ROLE OF THE FINANCIAL SYNTHESIS REPORTS FOR ACCESSION OF THE EUROPEAN STRUCTURAL FUNDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Droj Laurentiu

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available European integration is supported through important financial resources in order to sustain the investment effort for aligning the business infrastructure and increase in the business competitiveness in order to fulfill the European Union standards. The financial management, a basic component of the general management, has as scope to realize complex financial analysis in order to substantiate the decisions for investments and financing which should ensure the maximization of results, ensuring also the elaboration of the project budget as an essential document in the identification of the needs for resources and for obtaining the non-reimbursable financial sources. An essential role in the investment decision making, having as support European funding, is realized by the financial-accounting reporting documents such as balance sheet, profit and loss account, table of the treasury flows, which together with a realistic established actualization rate ensures the relevance and efficiency of the financial indicators: Net present Value(NPV, Internal Rate of Return(IRR, the investment recovery period, the benefit/cost ratio. This study has as its goal to realize a critical analysis over the main simulation methods and techniques for forecasting annual return based on its growth rate, which should ensure the success of the implementation and operation of an investment realized through European structural funds respecting also the requirements for minimization of risks. In this research it is shown the importance of proper generation/modeling of the annual turnover in an investment project. Several methods were presented and case study was realized. Since the annual turnover constitutes the basis for the entire financial analysis it is very important that a realistic growth rate is used. Otherwise the provisions within the financial analysis of the investment (including CBA, the project implementation strategy and later the plan for the utilization of

  9. Does Encouragement by Others Increase Rape Reporting? Findings from a National Sample of Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Lisa A.; Zinzow, Heidi M.; McCauley, Jenna L.; Kilpatrick, Dean G.; Resnick, Heidi S.

    2014-01-01

    Our study explores the role of victims' consultation with others about whether or not to report their rape to police. Three groups were observed within this sample of 435 rape victims from a national telephone household probability sample of women: those who did not consult with anyone about reporting (n = 364), those who consulted with someone and were encouraged to report to police (n = 40), and those who consulted with someone and were not encouraged to report (n = 31). Descriptive analyses indicated that the encouraged group was more likely to report to police than either of the other two groups (which did not differ from each other). Because there were no differences between the two consulting groups on demographic or rape-related variables, they were combined in subsequent analyses. Consulting with others about whether to report, peri-traumatic fear of injury or death, assault perpetration by a stranger, and concerns about contracting a sexually transmitted disease were significant predictors of reporting to police after controlling for other significant predictors in a multivariate regression analysis. Implications of these findings are discussed, including the benefits and consequences of formal rape reporting for victims, and the role that disclosure recipients may have in assisting victims post-rape (e.g., encouragement of reporting, emotional support). PMID:25431519

  10. The effect of self-confidence on financial literacy

    OpenAIRE

    Alfonso Arellano; Noelia Camara; David Tuesta

    2014-01-01

    This study analyses whether self-confidence affects financial abilities of young people in Spain, through financial literacy. We use data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Financial Literacy (2012) report, conducted by the OECD. Our hypothesis is that non-cognitive factors are important to establish young people s financial literacy. Financial knowledge, together with other personal attitudes, determines people s financial behaviour. We focus on the role of self-c...

  11. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  12. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  13. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.M.W.J. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the action-b

  14. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on th

  15. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  16. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.

    2000-07-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  17. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    CERN Document Server

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J A

    2000-01-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  18. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  19. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  20. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence is a necessary condition for the development of emerging markets. Investors recognize that since market-oriented reform policies may be reversed or hindered, they face the risk of ex post policy changes with redistributive impact on investment returns. We argue that a sustained p

  1. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on

  2. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  3. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the

  4. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  5. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  6. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that

  7. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce.

  8. Brief Report: Gonorrhea and Chlamydia Testing Increasing but Still Lagging in HIV Clinics in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Stephen A; Ghanem, Khalil G; Mathews, William Christopher; Korthuis, Philip Todd; Yehia, Baligh R; Agwu, Allison L; Lehmann, Christoph U; Moore, Richard D; Allen, Sara L; Gebo, Kelly A

    2015-11-01

    Screening persons living with HIV for gonorrhea and chlamydia has been recommended since 2003. We compared annual gonorrhea/chlamydia testing to syphilis and lipid testing among 19,368 adults (41% men who have sex with men, 30% heterosexual men, and 29% women) engaged in HIV care. In 2004, 22%, 62%, and 70% of all patients were tested for gonorrhea/chlamydia, syphilis, and lipid levels, respectively. Despite increasing steadily [odds ratio per year (95% confidence interval): 1.14 (1.13 to 1.15)], gonorrhea/chlamydia testing in 2010 remained lower than syphilis and lipid testing (39%, 77%, 76%, respectively). Interventions to improve gonorrhea/chlamydia screening are needed. A more targeted screening approach may be warranted.

  9. Mesolimbic confidence signals guide perceptual learning in the absence of external feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guggenmos, Matthias; Wilbertz, Gregor; Hebart, Martin N; Sterzer, Philipp

    2016-03-29

    It is well established that learning can occur without external feedback, yet normative reinforcement learning theories have difficulties explaining such instances of learning. Here, we propose that human observers are capable of generating their own feedback signals by monitoring internal decision variables. We investigated this hypothesis in a visual perceptual learning task using fMRI and confidence reports as a measure for this monitoring process. Employing a novel computational model in which learning is guided by confidence-based reinforcement signals, we found that mesolimbic brain areas encoded both anticipation and prediction error of confidence-in remarkable similarity to previous findings for external reward-based feedback. We demonstrate that the model accounts for choice and confidence reports and show that the mesolimbic confidence prediction error modulation derived through the model predicts individual learning success. These results provide a mechanistic neurobiological explanation for learning without external feedback by augmenting reinforcement models with confidence-based feedback.

  10. The meaning of confidence for older people living with frailty: a qualitative systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Frazer; Burrows, Lisa; Gegg, Rod; Latour, Jos M; Kent, Bridie

    2017-05-01

    In many countries, the oldest old (those aged 85 years and older) are now the fastest growing proportion of the total population. This oldest population will increasingly be living with the clinical condition of frailty. Frailty syndromes negatively impact on the person as they do the healthcare systems supporting them. Within healthcare literature "loss of confidence" is occasionally connected to older people living with frailty, but ambiguously described. Understanding the concept of confidence within the context of frailty could inform interventions to meet this growing challenge. The objective of this systematic review was to explore the meaning of confidence from the perspective of older people living with frailty through synthesis of qualitative evidence to inform healthcare practice, research and policy. Studies that included frail adults, aged over 60 years, experiencing acute hospital and or post-acute care in the last 12 months. The concept of "confidence" and its impact on the physical health and mental well-being of older people living with frailty. Studies that reported on the older person's descriptions, understanding and meaning of confidence in relation to their frailty or recent healthcare experiences. Studies of qualitative design and method. A three step search strategy was used. The search strategy explored published studies and gray literature. Publications in English from the last 20 years were considered for inclusion. All included articles were assessed by two independent reviewers using the Joanna Briggs Institute Qualitative Assessment Review Instrument (JBI-QARI). Data were extracted from included studies using the data extraction tools developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. Qualitative research findings were collated using a meta-aggregative approach and JBI-QARI software. Synthesized findings of this review were drawn from just four research studies that met the inclusion criteria. Only six findings contributed to the creation of

  11. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  12. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  13. INTEGRATED REPORTING AS A BASIS FOR ESSENTIALITY INCREASING OF ACCOUNTING INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rybyantseva M. S.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Basic information files that revealing external users with information about the organization are the accounting financial statements. Reforms of the national accounting led to reduction of reporting forms informativeness and removal of transcripts. There was an obvious need for the formation of statements that reveals a wider range of indicators. Thus, integrated reporting can be such information array. Integrated reporting is the accounting tool, the information array about the organization. Integrated reporting includes such positions, as: a set of indicators characterized the economic, social and environmental aspects of the entity; the corporate management system that allows interested users to track the process of entity’s value creation and to form an opinion about its economic value. This type of reporting will be able to shape in accordance with the proposed methodological document "Rules of integrated reporting formation". This document assumes the following structure of integrated reporting: relevant information about the organization, historical information, environmental information, social information, innovation, internal control system, decoding of the financial statements, analysis of financial condition and financial results

  14. Elder abuse and oral health care providers: an intervention to increase knowledge and self-perceived likelihood to report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugita, Julie A; Garrett, Mario D

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to ascertain whether a symposium on elder abuse raises the level of knowledge and the self-reported likelihood to report elder abuse among licensed oral health care providers. 130 dentists, hygienists, and assistants voluntarily attended a 4-hour training symposium and completed both pre- and postsurveys testing their level of knowledge. Results by statistical analyses, using repeated measurements, Wilcoxon signed-rank test for nonparametric data, showed increases in awareness of reporting process, knowledge/awareness of elder abuse, knowledge of mandated reporter requirements, and comfort levels with recognizing signs and symptoms of elder abuse and neglect. In conclusion, a symposium can increase the self-reported likelihood of reporting elder abuse.

  15. Technical Efficiency of Australian Wool Production: Point and Confidence Interval Estimates

    OpenAIRE

    2002-01-01

    A balanced panel of data is used to estimate technical efficiency, employing a fixed-effects stochastic frontier specification for wool producers in Australia. Both point estimates and confidence intervals for technical efficiency are reported. The confidence intervals are constructed using the Multiple Comparisons with the Best (MCB) procedure of Horrace and Schmidt (2000). The confidence intervals make explicit the precision of the technical efficiency estimates and underscore the dangers o...

  16. Report: Close-Out of Hotline Complaint on Unreasonable Cost Increase to the Wastewater Treatment Facility Improvements, Perkins, Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #12-X-0161, December 29, 2011. We have closed a hotline complaint that project costs increased unreasonably due to American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Recovery Act) requirements because we found no evidence to support the complaint.

  17. 77 FR 45379 - Increasing the Supply of Forensic Pathologists in the United States: A Report and Recommendations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-31

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ] DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE Office of Justice Programs Increasing the Supply of Forensic Pathologists in the United States: A Report... Forensic Pathologists in the United States: A Report and Recommendations.'' The opportunity to provide...

  18. Nutrition Knowledge, Attitudes, and Confidence of Australian General Practice Registrars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caryl A. Nowson

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Nutrition knowledge, attitudes, and confidence were assessed in General Practice Registrars (GPRs throughout Australia. Of approximately 6,000 GPRs invited to complete a nutrition survey, 93 respondents (2% completed the online survey, with 89 (20 males, 69 females providing demographic and educational information. Fifty-one percent had graduated from medical school within the last two years. From a list of 11 dietary strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk, respondents selected weight loss (84%, reducing saturated fats (90%, a maximum of two alcoholic drinks/day (82%, and increasing vegetables (83% as “highly appropriate” strategies, with only 51% indicating that salt reduction was “highly appropriate.” Two-thirds of registrars felt “moderately” (51% or “very” confident (16% providing nutrition advice. Most of them (84% recalled receiving information during training, but only 34% recalled having to demonstrate nutritional knowledge. The results indicate that this group of Australian GPRs understood most of the key dietary recommendations for reducing cardiovascular risk but lacked consensus regarding the recommendation to reduce salt intake and expressed mixed levels of confidence in providing nutritional advice. Appropriate nutrition education before and after graduation is recommended for GPRs to ensure the development of skills and confidence to support patients to make healthy dietary choices and help prevent chronic diseases.

  19. The Benefits of Attending the Annual Biomedical Research Conference for Minority Students (ABRCMS): The Role of Research Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casad, Bettina J.; Chang, Amy L.; Pribbenow, Christine M.

    2016-01-01

    The Annual Biomedical Research Conference for Minority Students (ABRCMS) is designed to support undergraduate students’ professional development as future scientists. Juniors, seniors, and postbaccalaureates who attended ABRCMS during 2008–2011 were emailed a link to an online questionnaire in which they reported their experiences at the conference. Attendees reported many ABRCMS-provided benefits. Frequency of attending or presenting at ABRCMS is positively related to science self-efficacy, research confidence, sense of belonging in science, and intentions to pursue a research degree in graduate school. Increased research confidence predicts graduate school plans and intentions for a research career in science; however, men were slightly more likely to intend to pursue a research career than women, likely due to higher research confidence. Although all attendees benefited from ABRCMS, underrepresented minority (URM) students had higher science self-efficacy and sense of belonging in science after attending ABRCMS than non-URM students. This finding demonstrates the effectiveness of ABRCMS as an intervention to increase the representation and success of URMs in science. Results highlight the importance of attending a minority-oriented research conference where URMs can develop their science self-efficacy, research confidence, and sense of belonging in science. However, changes to the conference and undergraduate research experiences may be necessary to reduce gender gaps. PMID:27562962

  20. The Benefits of Attending the Annual Biomedical Research Conference for Minority Students (ABRCMS): The Role of Research Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casad, Bettina J; Chang, Amy L; Pribbenow, Christine M

    2016-01-01

    The Annual Biomedical Research Conference for Minority Students (ABRCMS) is designed to support undergraduate students' professional development as future scientists. Juniors, seniors, and postbaccalaureates who attended ABRCMS during 2008-2011 were emailed a link to an online questionnaire in which they reported their experiences at the conference. Attendees reported many ABRCMS-provided benefits. Frequency of attending or presenting at ABRCMS is positively related to science self-efficacy, research confidence, sense of belonging in science, and intentions to pursue a research degree in graduate school. Increased research confidence predicts graduate school plans and intentions for a research career in science; however, men were slightly more likely to intend to pursue a research career than women, likely due to higher research confidence. Although all attendees benefited from ABRCMS, underrepresented minority (URM) students had higher science self-efficacy and sense of belonging in science after attending ABRCMS than non-URM students. This finding demonstrates the effectiveness of ABRCMS as an intervention to increase the representation and success of URMs in science. Results highlight the importance of attending a minority-oriented research conference where URMs can develop their science self-efficacy, research confidence, and sense of belonging in science. However, changes to the conference and undergraduate research experiences may be necessary to reduce gender gaps.

  1. Increased fruit, vegetable and fiber intake and lower fat intake reported among women previously treated for invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, Cynthia A; Flatt, Shirley W; Rock, Cheryl L; Ritenbaugh, Cheryl; Newman, Vicky; Pierce, John P

    2002-06-01

    To describe the dietary intake patterns of women before and after breast cancer diagnosis. 3,084 women (age range 27 to 70 years) who had been treated for early-stage breast cancer, who were free of recurrent disease, and who were willing to complete study questionnaires. A descriptive analysis of baseline demographic and lifestyle questionnaire data, including reported dietary intake data from women who have had breast cancer participating in a randomized, controlled dietary intervention trial. Outcomes include dietary intakes of high- and low-fat foods, fruits and vegetables, and whole grains. Analyses included frequency of intake of selected food items, chi2 analysis to determine associations between reported intakes and demographic and personal characteristics, and logistic regression to assess odds of making more healthful changes. Women who have had breast cancer reported higher fruit, vegetable, and fiber-rich food intakes (58%, 60%, 38% more, respectively) and lower intakes of high-fat foods, including fast foods, after diagnosis. Those older than age 60 years were more likely to report no change in intake, including red meat (41%), vegetables (51%), and whole grains (62%). Odds ratios (OR) for more healthful diet choices varied by age and time since diagnosis. The longer the time since diagnosis the more likely women selected low-fat (vs high-fat) foods (OR 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-2.09 for 3 to 4 years vs dietetics professionals may be able to promote healthful and evidence-based eating habits among women previously treated for breast cancer.

  2. Confidence leak in perceptual decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D’Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    We live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that, to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a “continuity field” such that objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of our metacognitive representations. In three experiments we demonstrate a robust inter-task “confidence leak” that cannot be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Observers’ ability to modulate this confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in prefrontal cortex. PMID:26408037

  3. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    OpenAIRE

    Gariela Gonçalves; Luís Afonso; Marta Ferreira; Teresa Ferro; Nascimento, Maria M.

    2013-01-01

    This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through t...

  4. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Piet J.H. Daas; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  5. Self-Confidence and Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Roland Benabou; Jean Tirole

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self esteem and his social environment in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering payments ...

  6. Confidence Sets for a Change-Point.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    probability credible set for j. In fact, even without the explicit evaluation in (1), one knows from a general theorem of Stein (1965) and Hora and...confidence sets with smallest expected measure, Ann. Statist. , 10, 1283-94. Hora , R. B. and Buehler, R. J. (1966), Fiducial theory and invariant...simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem -’-"C with zero -one observations, Biometrika 67, 79-84. Raferty, A. E. and Akman, V

  7. Confidence and coverage for Bland-Altman limits of agreement and their approximate confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng

    2016-09-01

    Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96Sd and [Formula: see text]+/- 2Sd). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes. © The Author(s) 2016.

  8. Testosterone and androgen receptor gene polymorphism are associated with confidence and competitiveness in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenegger, Christoph; Kumsta, Robert; Naef, Michael; Gromoll, Jörg; Heinrichs, Markus

    2017-06-01

    A contribution to a special issue on Hormones and Human Competition. Studies in non-human animals and humans have demonstrated the important role of testosterone in competitive interactions. Here, we investigated whether endogenous testosterone levels predict the decision to compete, in a design excluding spite as a motive underlying competitiveness. In a laboratory experiment with real monetary incentives, 181 men solved arithmetic problems, first under a noncompetitive piece rate, followed by a competition incentive scheme. We also assessed several parameters relevant to competition, such as risk taking, performance, and confidence in one's own performance. Salivary testosterone levels were measured before and 20min after the competition task using mass spectrometry. Participants were also genotyped for the CAG repeat polymorphism of the androgen receptor gene, known to influence the efficacy of testosterone signaling in a reciprocal relationship to the number of CAG repeats. We observed a significant positive association between basal testosterone levels and the decision to compete, and that higher testosterone levels were related to greater confidence in one's own performance. Whereas the number of CAG repeats was not associated with the choice to compete, a lower number of CAG repeats was related to greater confidence in those who chose to compete, but this effect was attributable to the polymorphism's effect on actual performance. An increase in testosterone levels was observed following the experiment, and this increase varied with self-reported high-school math grades. We expand upon the latest research by documenting effects of the androgen system in confidence in one's own ability, and conclude that testosterone promotes competitiveness without spite. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Increasing Marriage Will Dramatically Reduce Child Poverty. A Report of the Heritage Center for Data Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rector, Robert E.; Johnson, Kirk A.; Fagan, Patrick F.; Noyes, Lauren R.

    This report uses data from the Fragile Families and Child Well-Being Study (a nationwide survey that collects data on married and non-married parents at the time of the child's birth) to determine how much marriage could reduce poverty among couples who are not married at the time of birth. To determine the impact of marriage on children's and…

  10. Report: EPA Needs to Improve Internal Controls to Increase Cost Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #09-P-0144, April 27, 2009. Within a sample of removal actions we reviewed, EPA collected from responsible parties approximately 11 percent ($31.4 of $294.5 million) of the Federal Government’s costs for conducting the removal actions.

  11. Confident body, confident child: A randomized controlled trial evaluation of a parenting resource for promoting healthy body image and eating patterns in 2- to 6-year old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Laura M; Damiano, Stephanie R; Paxton, Susan J

    2016-05-01

    Body image and eating patterns develop in early childhood and are influenced by the family environment. This research evaluated Confident Body, Confident Child (CBCC), an intervention for parents of 2- to 6-year-old children, designed to promote body satisfaction, healthy eating, and weight management in early childhood. A randomized controlled trial compared four groups: (A) received the CBCC resource pack and a workshop, (B) received the CBCC resource pack only, (C) received a nutrition-only resource and (D) received no interventions until all questionnaires were completed (i.e., functioned as waitlist control). Measures of parenting variables relevant to child body image and eating patterns, parent-report of child weight, and evaluation questions about the resource, were implemented pre- and post-intervention. At 6-weeks post-intervention, the CBCC resource was associated with significant reductions in parents' intentions to use behaviors that increase the risk of negative body attitudes or unhealthy eating in their children, in parents' use of feeding practices associated with childhood overweight, and in television watching during family meals. Significant increases in parents' intentions to use positive behaviors and knowledge of child body image and healthy eating patterns were also found. Superior results were found for the CBCC resource + workshop condition, suggesting it is the preferred delivery method. CBCC positively impacts parenting variables associated with childhood risk for body dissatisfaction, unhealthy eating and weight. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. (Int J Eat Disord 2016; 49:458-472). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Relationships between fear of falling, balance confidence, and control of balance, gait, and reactive stepping in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Inness, Elizabeth L; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Fear of falling is common in individuals with stroke; however, the associations between fear of falling, balance confidence, and the control of balance and gait are not well understood for this population. This study aimed to determine whether, at the time of admission to in-patient rehabilitation, specific features of balance and gait differed between individuals with stroke who did and did not report fear of falling, and whether these features were related to balance confidence. Individuals with stroke entering in-patient rehabilitation were asked if they were afraid of falling, and completed the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale. Participants performed quiet standing, gait, and reactive stepping tasks, and specific measures were extracted for each (quiet standing: centre of pressure amplitude, between-limb synchronization, and Romberg quotients; gait: walking velocity, double support time, and variability measures; reactive stepping: number of steps, frequency of grasp reactions, and frequency of assists). No significant differences were identified between individuals with and without fear of falling. Balance confidence was negatively related to centre of pressure amplitude, double support time, and step time variability, and positively related to walking velocity. Low balance confidence was related to poor quiet standing balance control and cautious behavior when walking in individuals with sub-acute stroke. While the causal relationship between balance confidence and the control of balance and gait is unclear from the current work, these findings suggest there may be a role for interventions to increase balance confidence among individuals with stroke, in order to improve functional mobility.

  13. How many training modalities are needed to obtain procedural confidence in intraosseous access?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hallas, Peter; Folkestad, Lars; Brabrand, Mikkel

    2011-01-01

    Participants in advanced resuscitation courses are often expected to learn to perform intraosseous access (IO). But how many learning modalities are needed to achieve procedural confidence in IO? We distributed an online questionnaire to members of emergency medicine, paediatric and anaesthesiology...... societies in Scandinavia. The responders without real-life experience with IO (n=322) were classified as 'not confident' or 'confident' in IO. Of total responders 22.8% without training felt confident. Confidence increased to 74.8% after one training modality, 87.9% after two modalities, 98.7% after three...... modalities and 100% after four modalities (Pconfident. Confidence in IO increases with the number of learning modalities. 'Workshop or similar training with hands-on experience...

  14. The Influence of Endogenous and Exogenous Spatial Attention on Decision Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurtz, Phillipp; Shapcott, Katharine A; Kaiser, Jochen; Schmiedt, Joscha T; Schmid, Michael C

    2017-07-25

    Spatial attention allows us to make more accurate decisions about events in our environment. Decision confidence is thought to be intimately linked to the decision making process as confidence ratings are tightly coupled to decision accuracy. While both spatial attention and decision confidence have been subjected to extensive research, surprisingly little is known about the interaction between these two processes. Since attention increases performance it might be expected that confidence would also increase. However, two studies investigating the effects of endogenous attention on decision confidence found contradictory results. Here we investigated the effects of two distinct forms of spatial attention on decision confidence; endogenous attention and exogenous attention. We used an orientation-matching task, comparing the two attention conditions (endogenous and exogenous) to a control condition without directed attention. Participants performed better under both attention conditions than in the control condition. Higher confidence ratings than the control condition were found under endogenous attention but not under exogenous attention. This finding suggests that while attention can increase confidence ratings, it must be voluntarily deployed for this increase to take place. We discuss possible implications of this relative overconfidence found only during endogenous attention with respect to the theoretical background of decision confidence.

  15. Teaching Evolution to Students with Compromised Backgrounds & Lack of Confidence about Evolution--Is It Possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, Alexandria; Cotner, Sehoya; Moore, Randy

    2014-01-01

    Students regard evolutionary theory differently than science in general. Students' reported confidence in their ability to understand science in general (e.g., posing scientific questions, interpreting tables and graphs, and understanding the content of their biology course) significantly outweighed their confidence in understanding evolution. We…

  16. Teaching Evolution to Students with Compromised Backgrounds & Lack of Confidence about Evolution--Is It Possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, Alexandria; Cotner, Sehoya; Moore, Randy

    2014-01-01

    Students regard evolutionary theory differently than science in general. Students' reported confidence in their ability to understand science in general (e.g., posing scientific questions, interpreting tables and graphs, and understanding the content of their biology course) significantly outweighed their confidence in understanding evolution. We…

  17. Method Based on Confidence Radius to Adjust the Location of Mobile Terminals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    García-Fernández, Juan Antonio; Jurado-Navas, Antonio; Fernández-Navarro, Mariano

    2017-01-01

    of the geographical positions associated to all reported mobile terminals will be remarkable improved independent on the geolocation technique employed. The proposed method will move each position estimate towards a previously calculated area of confidence in a smart manner. This reduced area of confidence...

  18. Teaching Evolution to Students with Compromised Backgrounds & Lack of Confidence about Evolution--Is It Possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, Alexandria; Cotner, Sehoya; Moore, Randy

    2014-01-01

    Students regard evolutionary theory differently than science in general. Students' reported confidence in their ability to understand science in general (e.g., posing scientific questions, interpreting tables and graphs, and understanding the content of their biology course) significantly outweighed their confidence in understanding…

  19. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new longitu

  20. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  1. Increase in self-reported migraine prevalence in the Danish adult population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le, Han; Tfelt-Hansen, Peer; Skytthe, Axel

    2012-01-01

    It is uncertain whether migraine prevalence has increased in modern society. The aim of this study was to assess any change in migraine prevalence over an 8-year period among the adult population in Denmark.......It is uncertain whether migraine prevalence has increased in modern society. The aim of this study was to assess any change in migraine prevalence over an 8-year period among the adult population in Denmark....

  2. Reported high salt intake is associated with increased prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm and larger aortic diameter in older men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Golledge

    Full Text Available Salt intake has been implicated in the pathogenesis of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA through studies in rodent models but not previously studied in humans. The aim of this study was to examine the association between reported addition of salt to food and the prevalence of AAA.A risk factor questionnaire which contained a question about salt intake was included as part of a population screening study for AAA in 11742 older men. AAA presence was assessed by abdominal ultrasound imaging using a reproducible protocol.The prevalence of AAA was 6.9, 8.5 and 8.6% in men who reported adding salt to food never, sometimes and always, respectively, p = 0.005. Addition of salt to food sometimes (odds ratio [OR]: 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.03-1.44 or always (OR: 1.23, 95% CI 1.04-1.47 was independently associated with AAA after adjustment for other risk factors including age, waist-hip ratio, blood pressure, history of hypertension, high cholesterol, angina, diabetes, myocardial infarction and stroke. Salt intake was also independently associated with aortic diameter (beta 0.023, p = 0.012. In men with no prior history of hypertension, high cholesterol, angina, myocardial infarction or stroke (n = 4185, the association between addition of salt to food sometimes (OR: 1.41, 95% CI 0.96-2.08 or always (OR: 1.52, 95% CI 1.04-2.22 and AAA remained evident.Reported salt intake is associated with AAA in older men. Additional studies are needed to determine whether reducing salt intake would protect against AAA.

  3. Rare attributes in finite universe: Hypotheses testing specification and exact randomized upper confidence bounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, T.

    1993-03-01

    When attributes are rare and few or none are observed in the selected sample from a finite universe, sampling statisticians are increasingly being challenged to use whatever methods are available to declare with high probability or confidence that the universe is near or completely attribute-free. This is especially true when the attribute is undesirable. Approximations such as those based on normal theory are frequently inadequate with rare attributes. For simple random sampling without replacement, an appropriate probability distribution for statistical inference is the hypergeometric distribution. But even with the hypergeometric distribution, the investigator is limited from making claims of attribute-free with high confidence unless the sample size is quite large using nonrandomized techniques. In the hypergeometric setting with rare attributes, exact randomized tests of hypothesis a,re investigated to determine the effect on power of how one specifies the null hypothesis. In particular, specifying the null hypothesis as zero attributes does not always yield maximum possible power. We also consider the hypothesis specification question under complex sampling designs including stratified random sampling and two-stage cluster sampling (one case involves random selection at first stage and another case involves probability proportional to size without replacement selection at first stage). Also under simple random sampling, this article defines and presents a simple algorithm for the construction of exact ``randomized`` upper confidence bounds which permit one to possibly report tighter bounds than those exact bounds obtained using ``nonrandomized`` methods.

  4. Rare attributes in finite universe: Hypotheses testing specification and exact randomized upper confidence bounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, T.

    1993-03-01

    When attributes are rare and few or none are observed in the selected sample from a finite universe, sampling statisticians are increasingly being challenged to use whatever methods are available to declare with high probability or confidence that the universe is near or completely attribute-free. This is especially true when the attribute is undesirable. Approximations such as those based on normal theory are frequently inadequate with rare attributes. For simple random sampling without replacement, an appropriate probability distribution for statistical inference is the hypergeometric distribution. But even with the hypergeometric distribution, the investigator is limited from making claims of attribute-free with high confidence unless the sample size is quite large using nonrandomized techniques. In the hypergeometric setting with rare attributes, exact randomized tests of hypothesis a,re investigated to determine the effect on power of how one specifies the null hypothesis. In particular, specifying the null hypothesis as zero attributes does not always yield maximum possible power. We also consider the hypothesis specification question under complex sampling designs including stratified random sampling and two-stage cluster sampling (one case involves random selection at first stage and another case involves probability proportional to size without replacement selection at first stage). Also under simple random sampling, this article defines and presents a simple algorithm for the construction of exact randomized'' upper confidence bounds which permit one to possibly report tighter bounds than those exact bounds obtained using nonrandomized'' methods.

  5. The NEA Forum on Stakeholder Confidence - Phase I Lessons and Phase II Activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Peter [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa (Canada). Uranium and Radioactive Waste Div.; Pescatore, Claudio [Nuclear Energy Agency, Paris (France)

    2006-09-15

    The Forum on Stakeholder Confidence (FSC) was created under a mandate from the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Radioactive Waste Management Committee (RWMC) to facilitate the sharing of international experience in addressing the societal dimension of radioactive waste management. It explores means of ensuring an effective dialogue with the public, and considers ways to strengthen confidence in decision-making processes. The Forum was launched in August 2000 and completed its first phase in 00 . Major findings and principles for action were published under the title of 'Learning and Adapting to Societal Requirements'. Activities of the FSC were also reported at Valdor 2003. In the second mandate of the FSC, there is continued use of a variety of tools and formats to allow dialogue among stakeholders in an atmosphere of mutual trust: national workshops and community visits, topical sessions, and desk and interview studies. In Phase II, the FSC is exploring: the link between research, development and demonstration and stakeholder confidence; cultural and organisational changes in RWM institutions; the role of media relations and outreach opportunities; tools and processes to help society prepare and manage decisions through stakeholder involvement; and increasing the value of waste management facilities to local communities. Workshops have been held in Germany and Spain. A large set of publications makes both Phase I and Phase II findings widely available.

  6. Self-Reports of Increased Prospective and Retrospective Memory Problems in Adults with Developmental Dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Spark, James H; Zięcik, Adam P; Sterling, Christopher

    2016-08-01

    Short-term and working memory problems in dyslexia are well-documented, but other memory domains have received little empirical scrutiny, despite some evidence to suggest that they might be impaired. Prospective memory is memory for delayed intentions, whilst retrospective memory relates to memory for personally experienced past events. To gain an understanding of subjective everyday memory experience, a self-report measure designed to tap prospective and retrospective memory was administered to 28 adults with dyslexia and 26 IQ-matched adults without dyslexia. Adults with dyslexia reported experiencing significantly more frequent problems with memory than the adults without dyslexia. Group differences were found across seven out of the eight questionnaire scales. Further to these analyses, the participants' own ratings were compared with proxy ratings provided by close associates. The perception of poorer memory abilities in the participants did not differ between respondent types. The self-reported difficulties are, thus, unlikely to be the result of lowered self-esteem or metacognitive awareness. More frequent difficulties with both types of memory would seem, therefore, to be experienced by adults with dyslexia in everyday life. Further laboratory-based research is recommended to explore both memory domains in dyslexia and to identify the cognitive mechanisms by which these problems occur. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  8. Increase of Expression Levels of Reporter Gene in Transgenic Tobaccos by Matrix Attachment Regions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The matrix attachment region (MAR) located downstream of Plastocyanin gene was isolated from the genome of pea. To study the effect of MARs on foreign gene expression in transgenic plants, T-DNA vector was constructed in which MARs flanked bothβ-glucuronidase(GUS) gene and selectable marker neomycin phosphotransferase (NPT-II) gene. The plant expression vectors were transferred into leaf discs via Agrobacterium-mediated transformation procedure. The result of GUS measurement showed that pea MAR could increase transgene expression level. The mean expression levels of GUS gene expression in population containing MARs could be increased twofold when compared with that of population without MARs.

  9. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  10. Brief Report: Does Exposure to Violent Video Games Increase Moral Disengagement among Adolescents?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabbiadini, Alessandro; Andrighetto, Luca; Volpato, Chiara

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have repeatedly shown that violent/action video games increase aggressive tendencies. The present study provides preliminary evidence that exposure to these games also affects the process of moral disengagement. High school students (N = 385) were recruited, and the impact of both recency and frequency of their exposure to the…

  11. Lwazi II Final Report: Increasing the impact of speech technologies in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Calteaux, K

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available From 2010-2012 the Human Language Technology (HLT) research group of the CSIR Meraka Institute received funding from the Department of Arts and Culture (DAC) for a project entitled Lwazi II: Increasing the impact of speech technologies in South...

  12. Increasing the impact of health plan report cards by addressing consumers' concerns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbard, J H; Harris-Kojetin, L; Mullin, P; Lubalin, J; Garfinkel, S

    2000-01-01

    Most plan report cards that compare the performance of health plans have framed the decision about plan choice as an opportunity to get better-quality care. This study uses a controlled experimental design to examine the effect of reframing the health plan choice decision to one that emphasizes protecting oneself from possible risk. The findings show that framing the health plan decision using a risk message has a consistent and significant positive impact on how consumers comprehend, value, and weight comparative performance information.

  13. Brief Report: Increasing Acceptance of Homosexuality in the United States Across Racial and Ethnic Subgroups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Sara Nelson; Cleary, Sean D; Golden, Matthew R

    2015-11-01

    After recent civil rights expansions for sexual minorities in the United States, we updated previous findings on population-level attitudes toward homosexuality measured in the General Social Survey. In 2014, 40.1% of respondents reported that homosexuality was "always wrong" compared with 54.8% in 2008 (P homosexuality than white respondents throughout 2008 to 2014, the percentage declined among all racial/ethnic groups. Among MSM, more positive attitudes were associated with HIV testing. Research shows a potential association between homophobia and HIV risk; thus, these population-level changes may promote better health among MSM.

  14. [Heterochromia complicata Fuchs, crystalline iridopathy and increased immunoglobulin G in aqueous humor. A case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bialasiewicz, A; Gierth, K; Naumann, G O

    1991-03-01

    We report on a 35 year old patient suffering from heterochromia complicata Fuchs with a mature cataract. Multiple small whitish-yellowish crystal-lines on the iris at the 7 and 12 o'clock position were interpreted as Russell bodies and correlated with an elevated concentration of 7.2 mg/dl IgG in the aqueous humor analysis. IgA und IgM could not be detected (less than 1.1 mg/dl). Three months after an unremarkable extracapsular cataract extraction and posterior chamber lens implantation a positive Tyndall phenomenon and Russell bodies were found at just the same locations on the iris.

  15. Age differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliske, R M; Mutter, S A

    1996-01-01

    Age differences in accuracy were investigated by having older (M = 68.6 years) and younger (M = 21.5 years) adults make confidence judgments about the correctness of their responses to two sets of general knowledge items. For one set, prior to making their confidence judgments, subjects made mental strategy judgements indicating how they had selected their answers (i.e., they guessed, used intuition, made an inference, or immediately recognized the response as correct). Results indicate that older subjects were more accurate than younger subjects in predicting the correctness of their responses; however, making mental strategy judgments did not result in increased accuracy for either age group. Additional analyses explored the relationship between accuracy and other individual difference variables. The results of this investigation are consistent with recent theories of postformal cognitive development that suggest older adults have greater insight into the limitations of their knowledge.

  16. Increased frequency of self-reported parasomnias in patients suffering from vitiligo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouzas, Odysseas; Angelopoulos, Nikiforos; Papaliagka, Maria; Tsogas, Panagiotis

    2008-01-01

    Vitiligo is a skin disorder of unknown aetiology, affecting 0.1-2% of the general population. The aim of the present study was to investigate its relationship with sleep disorders, especially parasomnias. Two hundred and sixteen individuals were examined. Among them, 116 were suffering from vitiligo, 52 from other dermatological diseases and 48 were healthy subjects, serving as a control group. An inventory including items related to sleep disorders from childhood and adolescence was used. The study was focused specifically on parasomnias. Patients suffering from vitiligo reported a significantly higher occurrence of sleepwalking, nocturnal enuresis, night illusions, sleep terrors and nightmares than that of the control group, prior to the manifestation of the disease. Patients suffering from other dermatological diseases only reported significantly more often nightmares and nocturnal enuresis compared to the control group. A relationship between parasomnias during early life and later development of vitiligo was detected. This finding supports the hypothesis that neural mechanisms involving monoaminergic systems (especially the serotoninergic one) may potentially be involved in the aetiopathology of vitiligo.

  17. Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Téllez A.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

  18. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  19. The Role of Dyadic Confidence on Engagement in Heart Failure Care Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Karen S; Gelow, Jill M; Hiatt, Shirin O; Mudd, James O; Auld, Jonathan; Chien, Christopher V; Lee, Christopher S

    2017-04-26

    Increasingly, older adults and their families are expected to manage complex conditions with little support. In the case of heart failure (HF), symptom monitoring and management are critical in preventing acute exacerbations and poor clinical outcomes. The current study examined the role of dyadic confidence on engagement in HF care behaviors by patients and their spouses. A cross-sectional design was used to examine 60 couples living with HF. Three dyadic confidence variables were created to represent average level of confidence, gap in confidence, and direction of gap within each couple. A series of multilevel models were used to examine dyadic engagement in HF maintenance, management, and consulting behaviors and the role of dyadic confidence. Patients were significantly more engaged in HF maintenance behaviors than spouses; couples were more collaborative in their engagement in HF management and consulting behaviors. Average level of confidence in the dyad was significantly associated with patient engagement in all three HF behaviors. Spouse engagement was associated with more congruence in confidence and having higher levels of confidence than their partners with HF. Women were significantly more engaged in HF behaviors than men, regardless of role. The study employed a dyadic approach to HF care and a novel approach to confidence. Findings confirm the social nature of confidence and its important role in HF. Clinicians have opportunities to optimize patient outcomes by fostering greater collaboration within couples.

  20. Significant alterations in reported clinical practice associated with increased oversight of organ transplant center performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schold, Jesse D; Arrington, Charlotte J; Levine, Greg

    2010-09-01

    In the past several years, emphasis on quality metrics in the field of organ transplantation has increased significantly, largely because of the new conditions of participation issued by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. These regulations directly associate patients' outcomes and measured performance of centers with the distribution of public funding to institutions. Moreover, insurers and marketing ventures have used publicly available outcomes data from transplant centers for business decision making and advertisement purposes. We gave a 10-question survey to attendees of the Transplant Management Forum at the 2009 meeting of the United Network for Organ Sharing to ascertain how centers have responded to the increased oversight of performance. Of 63 responses, 55% indicated a low or near low performance rating at their center in the past 3 years. Respondents from low-performing centers were significantly more likely to indicate increased selection criteria for candidates (81% vs 38%, P = .001) and donors (77% vs 31%, P < .001) as well as alterations in clinical protocols (84% vs 52%, P = .007). Among respondents indicating lost insurance contracts (31%), these differences were also highly significant. Based on respondents' perceptions, outcomes of performance evaluations are associated with significant changes in clinical practice at transplant centers. The transplant community and policy makers should practice vigilance that performance evaluations and regulatory oversight do not inadvertently lead to diminished access to care among viable candidates or decreased transplant volume.

  1. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  2. No evidence for increased self-reported cognitive failure in Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wessels, A M; Pouwer, F; Geelhoed-Duijvestijn, P H L M

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: Mild cognitive deficits have been determined in both types of diabetes using neurocognitive tests. Little is known about the degree to which patients complain about their cognitive functioning. This study set out to investigate the magnitude and correlates of self-reported cognitive failure...... in adult out-patients with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Subjective cognitive functioning was measured in 187 diabetic patients using the Cognitive Failures Questionnaire (CFQ). Demographic and clinical characteristics were retrieved from the medical records. The Patient Health Questionnaire 9 items...... (PHQ-9) was self-administered along with the CFQ to correct for the confounding effect of depression. RESULTS: Analyses were based on 55 patients with Type 1 diabetes and 100 patients with Type 2 diabetes. No difference in mean CFQ score was observed between Type 1 and Type 2 diabetic patients...

  3. WEXA: exergy analysis for increasing the efficiency of air/water heat pumps - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gasser, L.; Wellig, B.; Hilfiker, K.

    2008-04-15

    This comprehensive final report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents the results of a study at the made by the Engineering and Architecture department at the Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts. The subject of the WEXA study (Waermepumpen-Exergie-Analyse - heat pump exergy analysis) is the analysis of the operation of air/water heat-pumps using exergy analysis methods. The basic thermodynamics of heating systems using heat-pumps is discussed. The exergy analyses and exergy balances for the various components and processes of an air/water heat-pump are presented and discussed. Comparisons are presented for heat-pumps with on/off and continuous control systems for their compressors and fans. The paper is concluded with a collection of appendices on the subject.

  4. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-09-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  5. A pilot survey of junior doctors' confidence in tasks related to broad aspects of competence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Deborah J; Skaarup, Anne Marie; Ringsted, Charlotte

    2005-01-01

    Medical authorities and society are recommending that postgraduate medical education prepare physicians for broad aspects of competence. The most effective ways to prepare physicians for these are not known. The aim of this pilot study was to survey junior doctors' growth in confidence in different...... physician roles. A total of 165 junior doctors in internal medicine completed a self-administered survey of confidence levels in physician roles. Confidence levels between training levels were compared. Confidence in the roles of medical expert, communicator and collaborator increased between PRHOs and SHOs...... tracking will be important to evaluate the effect of educational interventions on patient care. Udgivelsesdato: 2005-Sep...

  6. What is your savings personality? The 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakoboski, P; Ostuw, P; Hicks, J

    1998-08-01

    This Issue Brief presents the findings of the 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS). The survey tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into six distinct groups, based on their very different views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The six personality types identified in the RCS are Deniers (10 percent of the population), Strugglers (9 percent), Impulsives (20 percent), Cautious Savers (21 percent), Planners (23 percent), and Retiring Savers (17 percent). The survey shows that working Americans have become more focused on retirement; 45 percent have tried to determine how much they need to save before they retire, up from 32 percent in 1996. Americans' growing attention to their retirement has not increased their retirement income confidence. Since 1993, the portion of working Americans who are very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has consistently ranged from 20 percent to 25 percent. Sixty-three percent of Americans have begun to save for retirement. Fifty-five percent of those not saving for retirement say it is reasonably possible for them to save $20 per week (over $1,000 per year). In addition, 57 percent of workers who have begun to save say that it is reasonably possible for them to save an additional $20 per week. The findings demonstrate the continuing need for broad-based educational efforts designed to make retirement savings a priority for individuals. The good news is the evidence that education can have a real impact at the individual level. For the first time the 1998 RCS examined retirement planning, saving, and attitudes across ethnic groups (African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and whites). African-Americans are the least confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. African-Americans and Hispanic

  7. Increased capability gas generator for Space Shuttle APU. Development/hot restart test report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-01-01

    The design, fabrication, and testing of an increased capability gas generator for use in space shuttles are described. Results show an unlimited hot restart capability in the range of feed pressures from 400 psi to 80 psi. Effects of vacuum on hot restart were not addressed, and only beginning-of-life bed conditions were tested. No starts with bubbles were performed. A minimum expected life of 35 hours or more is projected, and the design will maintain a surface temperature of 350 F or more.

  8. [A significant increase in intraoperative flash visual evoked potential amplitude during craniopharyngioma surgery-case report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawaguchi, Tomohiro; Ogawa, Yoshikazu; Fujiwara, Satoru; Tominaga, Teiji

    2015-04-01

    The flash visual evoked potential (VEP) is a useful diagnostic modality for visual preservation during surgery. Decreased VEP amplitude is recognized to indicate visual deterioration;however, whether intraoperative VEP can detect visual improvement remains unclear. We describe a craniopharyngioma case with a significant increase in VEP amplitude during surgery. A 67-year-old woman presented with progressive gait disturbance and impaired consciousness. Head magnetic resonance imaging demonstrated a sellar-suprasellar tumor compressing the optic chiasm upward with significant ventricular dilation. Her Glasgow Coma Scale was E3V3M5. Visual fields and acuity could not be examined because of impaired consciousness, and she could not see/recognize objects on a table. Preoperative VEP showed reproducible waveforms. Tumor removal by the extended transsphenoidal approach was performed with VEP monitoring. Increased VEP amplitude was observed after dural incision and persisted until the surgery ended. Postoperative VEP waveforms were also reproducible, but visual fields/acuity could not be examined because of cognitive dysfunction. Useful visual function was restored, and she became independent in daily life. The histological diagnosis was craniopharyngioma. The patient underwent ventriculo-peritoneal shunting for hydrocephalus 16 days after tumor removal. The postoperative course was uneventful and she was transferred to another hospital for rehabilitation. Intraoperative VEP may indicate visual improvement during surgery, which is a useful objective assessment for visual function in patients with impaired consciousness and cognitive dysfunction.

  9. Increasing the biomass production of short rotation coppice forests. Progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinbeck, K.; Brown, C. L.

    1980-09-01

    The objective of the project is to increase biomass yields from coppice forests by admixing tree species (Alnus glutinosa, Robinia pseudoacacia and others) to plantations of Platanus occidentalis and Liquidambar styraciflua. Yield increases due to intensive cultivation, especially fertilization and irrigation, will be documented. A genetic improvement program of promising candidate species both through the identification of superior genotypes and mass cloning with tissue culture is also included. Three plantings have been established successfully to screen candidate species on various sites and to test the effects of weed control, fertilization and irrigation on short rotation forests. Two plantations in Georgia are in their 2nd and 3rd growing seasons while one in South Carolina is in its 1st growing season. A two acre plantation has been established to test development of geographic seed source material for sycamore. A nursery is in operation to develop seedling production methods for new species and to grow and maintain genetic material. Mass cloning of selected material by tissue culture techniques has produced material for testing in outplantings.

  10. AFSC/RACE/GAP/Orr: Bering Sea Slope groundfish surveys Identification Confidence

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report includes an identification confidence matrix for all fishes and invertebrates identified from the EBS slope triennial and biennial surveys from 1976...

  11. AFSC/RACE/GAP/Orr: Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands groundfish surveys Identification Confidence

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report includes an identification confidence matrix for all fishes and invertebrates identified from the GOA and AI surveys from 1980 through 2011. The matrix...

  12. Measurement of confidence: the development and psychometric evaluation of a stroke-specific, measure of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jane C; Lincoln, Nadina B; Logan, Pip A

    2017-04-01

    To design, develop and psychometrically evaluate a stroke-specific measure of confidence, the Confidence after Stroke Measure (CaSM). Cross-sectional. Adults in the community. Stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants. Questionnaire items were generated based on the literature and qualitative interviews and piloted with expert groups to establish face validity. A 53-item CaSM was administered to stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants in the community. A second copy was posted four weeks later. Completed questionnaires were analysed for extreme responses, missing values, construct validity (factor analysis), convergent validity, divergent validity, reliability (internal consistency and temporal stability) and comparing responses according to age and gender. Stroke ( n = 101) and healthy elderly participants ( n = 101) returned questionnaires. Eight items were removed that had extreme responses and large numbers of missing values. Six items had item total correlations Confidence, Positive Attitude and Social Confidence, which explained 52% of variance. Cronbach's alpha coefficient demonstrated good internal consistency ( α = 0.94). A test re-test on the 27 items indicated good temporal stability ( r = 0.85, P = 0.001). The 27-item CaSM was a valid and reliable measure for assessing confidence in stroke survivors.

  13. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  14. Primary malignant pericardial mesothelioma with increased serum mesothelin diagnosed by surgical pericardial resection: A case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurosawa, Takeyuki; Sugino, Keishi; Isobe, Kazutoshi; Hata, Yoshinobu; Fukasawa, Yuri; Homma, Sakae

    2016-11-01

    A 37-year-old female smoker without a history of exposure to asbestos was referred to our hospital with persistent pericardial effusion. Chest computed tomography imaging examination revealed an irregular thickened pericardium with large amounts of pericardial effusion and a small pleural effusion. Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography imaging demonstrated intrapericardial FDG accumulation. Blood tests revealed an increase in serum mesothelin levels. Examination of a surgically resected specimen revealed a grayish-white thickening of the pericardium, with a straw-colored mucinous pericardial effusion. Histopathological examination confirmed the diagnosis of epithelioid malignant mesothelioma. Although the patient's condition temporarily improved, with decreased levels of serum mesothelin during chemotherapy with carboplatin and pemetrexed, she succumbed to cardiac tamponade 18 months after the initial onset of the symptoms. Primary malignant pericardial mesothelioma (PMPM) is an extremely rare and refractory disorder. Thus, an early definitive diagnosis and timely treatment are crucial for the management of PMPM.

  15. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  16. Mediated Sources of Public Confidence: Lazarsfeld and Merton Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Peter

    1999-01-01

    Contributes to scholarship on mass media's role in generating public confidence. Discusses the current crisis of confidence, confidence as "faith-together," varied routes by which media confer status, and ways both journalistic expose and public debate can generate cynicism and undercut public confidence. Sketches three types of civil…

  17. [Marketing as a tool to increase the effectiveness of public health plans. 2008 SESPAS Report].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beerli-Palacio, Asunción; Martín-Santana, Josefa D; Porta, Miquel

    2008-04-01

    Recent years have seen a steady increase in social marketing applied to health with the aim of increasing public awareness and changing people's behavior. Programs or actions based on the principles of social marketing have been shown to be effective in improving public health. However, that is not the general rule in Spain, where health policies have been based on health plans directed more to economic efficiency than to citizens' needs. For a health marketing program to be effective, the following factors are necessary: 1) the program has a long-term temporal horizon for action; 2) the objectives are established in terms of behavioral changes; 3) market research is used as a source of information; 4) different actions are established according to the segments identified as targets; 5) the program is operationalized in the four variables of the marketing mix, namely, product, price, distribution and communication, and is not only based on advertising campaigns; 6) the core of the program is exchange, understood as the factors that motivate people to change in return for the promise of something beneficial to them; 7) the factors or forces that compete with the desired behavioral changes are neutralized, and 8) businesses' social responsibility is used as a mechanism to reinforce health improvement programs. The design of health marketing programs should include definition of strategic and operational actions aimed not only at potential adopters of the desired behavior but also at all agents who may help or hinder behavioral change (health professionals, the pharmaceutical industry, politicians, the advertising industry, and products and services with health-challenging objectives).

  18. Confidence Crisis Among General Surgery Residents: A Systematic Review and Qualitative Discourse Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfenbein, Dawn M

    2016-12-01

    In the surgical community, there is concern that general surgery residents are choosing subspecialty training in large numbers because of a crisis in confidence at the end of training. Confidence is an essential quality of surgeons, and recent studies have attempted to quantify and measure it in graduating general surgery residents. To systematically review the quality of evidence provided and to critically analyze the language used to describe the findings using quantitative methods. A systematic review of the PubMed indexed literature on general surgery resident confidence was performed in March 2015. A summative table of each study's hypothesis, definition of confidence, quality using the Medical Education Research Study Quality Instrument, influence using Web of Science citations, results, and conclusions was created, and qualitative coding was applied to identify emerging themes. No date restrictions were used in the search. Fifteen survey studies have been performed that measure confidence or readiness to practice. Although 5 studies had neutral or positive conclusions, most studies reported low confidence in general surgery graduates. There are conflicting data about definitions of confidence. The relationships between confidence, autonomy, and competence are varied and complex. Comparisons with the past are frequent. Confidence is difficult to define and measure. Despite limitations, survey studies are used to shape discourse and influence policies. Social and cultural factors influence self-efficacy, and focusing on operative volume and autonomy alone may not address all of the reasons that some residents express concerns about readiness to practice.

  19. Unbounded evidence accumulation characterizes subjective visual vertical (SVV) forced-choice perceptual choice and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Koeun; Wang, Wei; Merfeld, Daniel M

    2017-07-26

    Humans can subjectively yet quantitatively assess choice confidence based on perceptual precision even when a perceptual decision is made without an immediate reward or feedback. However, surprisingly little is known about choice confidence. Here we investigate the dynamics of choice confidence by merging two parallel conceptual frameworks of decision-making, signal detection theory and sequential analyses (i.e., drift diffusion modeling). Specifically, in order to capture end-point statistics of binary choice and confidence, we built on a previous study that defined choice confidence in terms of psychophysics derived from signal detection theory. At the same time, we augmented this mathematical model to include accumulator dynamics of a drift-diffusion model to characterize the time-dependency of the choice behaviors in a standard forced-choice paradigm in which stimulus duration is controlled by the operator. Human subjects performed a subjective visual vertical task, simultaneously reporting binary orientation choice and probabilistic confidence. Both binary choice and confidence experimental data displayed statistics and dynamics consistent with both signal detection theory and evidence accumulation, respectively. Specifically, the computational simulations showed that the unbounded evidence accumulator model fits the confidence data better than the classical bounded model, while bounded and unbounded models were indistinguishable for binary choice data. These results suggest that the brain can utilize mechanisms consistent with signal detection theory - especially when judging confidence without time pressure. Copyright © 2017, Journal of Neurophysiology.

  20. Use of and confidence in administering outcome measures among clinical prosthetists: Results from a national survey and mixed-methods training program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaunaurd, Ignacio; Spaulding, Susan E; Amtmann, Dagmar; Salem, Rana; Gailey, Robert; Morgan, Sara J; Hafner, Brian J

    2015-08-01

    Outcome measures can be used in prosthetic practices to evaluate interventions, inform decision making, monitor progress, document outcomes, and justify services. Strategies to enhance prosthetists' ability to use outcome measures are needed to facilitate their adoption in routine practice. To assess prosthetists' use of outcome measures and evaluate the effects of training on their confidence in administering performance-based measures. Cross-sectional and single-group pretest-posttest survey. Seventy-nine certified prosthetists (mean of 16.0 years of clinical experience) were surveyed about their experiences with 20 standardized outcome measures. Prosthetists were formally trained by the investigators to administer the Timed Up and Go and Amputee Mobility Predictor. Prosthetists' confidence in administering the Timed Up and Go and Amputee Mobility Predictor was measured before and after training. The majority of prosthetists (62%) were classified as non-routine outcome measure users. Confidence administering the Timed Up and Go and Amputee Mobility Predictor prior to training was low-to-moderate across the study sample. Training significantly (p confidence in administering both instruments. Prosthetists in this study reported limited use of and confidence with standardized outcome measures. Interactive training resulted in a statistically significant increase of prosthetists' confidence in administering the Timed Up and Go and Amputee Mobility Predictor and may facilitate use of outcome measures in clinical practice. Frequency of outcome measure use in the care of persons with limb loss has not been studied. Study results suggest that prosthetists may not regularly use standardized outcome measures and report limited confidence in administering them. Training enhances confidence and may encourage use of outcome measures in clinical practice. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

  1. Confidence intervals for annual wind power production******

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bensoussan Alain

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind power is an intermittent resource due to wind speed intermittency. However wind speed can be described as a stochastic process with short memory. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for the annual or pluri-annual wind power production and then get quantiles of the wind power production for one, ten or twenty years future periods. On the one hand, the interquantile spread offers a measurement of the intrinsic uncertainties of wind power production. On the other hand, different quantiles with different periods of time are used by financial institutions to quantify the financial risk of the wind turbine. Our method is then applied to real datasets corresponding to a French wind turbine. Since confidence intervals can be enhanced by taking into account seasonality, we present some tools for change point analysis on wind series.

  2. The confidence and knowledge of health practitioners when interacting with people with aphasia in a hospital setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Ashley; McPhail, Steven; Hudson, Kyla; Fleming, Jennifer; Lethlean, Jennifer; Tan, Ngang Ju; Finch, Emma

    2017-03-13

    The aim of the study was to describe and compare the confidence and knowledge of health professionals (HPs) with and without specialized speech-language training for communicating with people with aphasia (PWA) in a metropolitan hospital setting. Ninety HPs from multidisciplinary teams completed a customized survey to identify their demographic information, knowledge of aphasia, current use of supported conversation strategies and overall communication confidence when interacting with PWA using a 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS) to rate open-ended questions. Conventional descriptive statistics were used to examine the demographic information. Descriptive statistics and the Mann-Whitney U test were used to analyse VAS confidence rating data. The responses to the open-ended survey questions were grouped into four previously identified key categories. The HPs consisted of 22 (24.4%) participants who were speech-language pathologists and 68 (75.6%) participants from other disciplines (non-speech-language pathology HPs, non-SLP HPs). The non-SLP HPs reported significantly lower confidence levels (U = 159.0, p confidence, skills and ability to successfully communicate with PWA in their work environment. This may in turn increase the involvement of PWA in their health care decisions. Implications for Rehabilitation Interventions to remediate health professional's (particularly non-speech-language pathology health professionals) lower levels of confidence and ability to communicate with PWA may ultimately help ensure equal access for PWA. Promote informed collaborative decision-making, and foster patient-centred care within the health care setting.

  3. Confidence sets for optimal factor levels of a response surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fang; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Han, Yang

    2016-12-01

    Construction of confidence sets for the optimal factor levels is an important topic in response surfaces methodology. In Wan et al. (2015), an exact (1-α) confidence set has been provided for a maximum or minimum point (i.e., an optimal factor level) of a univariate polynomial function in a given interval. In this article, the method has been extended to construct an exact (1-α) confidence set for the optimal factor levels of response surfaces. The construction method is readily applied to many parametric and semiparametric regression models involving a quadratic function. A conservative confidence set has been provided as an intermediate step in the construction of the exact confidence set. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the confidence sets. The comparison between confidence sets indicates that our exact confidence set is better than the only other confidence set available in the statistical literature that guarantees the (1-α) confidence level. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  4. Fusing photovoltaic data for improved confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansgar Steland

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing and testing photovoltaic modules requires carefully made measurements on important variables such as the power output under standard conditions. When additional data is available, which has been collected using a different measurement system and therefore may be of different accuracy, the question arises how one can combine the information present in both data sets. In some cases one even has prior knowledge about the ordering of the variances of the measurement errors, which is not fully taken into account by commonly known estimators. We discuss several statistical estimators to combine the sample means of independent series of measurements, both under the assumption of heterogeneous variances and ordered variances. The critical issue is then to assess the estimator’s variance and to construct confidence intervals. We propose and discuss the application of a new jackknife variance estimator devised by [1] to such photovoltaic data, in order to assess the variability of common mean estimation under heterogeneous and ordered variances in a reliable and nonparametric way. When serial correlations are present, which usually a ect the marginal variances, it is proposed to construct a thinned data set by downsampling the series in such a way that autocorrelations are removed or dampened. We propose a data adaptive procedure which downsamples a series at irregularly spaced time points in such a way that the autocorrelations are minimized. The procedures are illustrated by applying them to real photovoltaic power output measurements from two different sun light flashers. In addition, focusing on simulations governed by real photovoltaic data, we investigate the accuracy of the jackknife approach and compare it with other approaches. Among those is a variance estimator based on Nair’s formula for Gaussian data and, as a parametric alternative, two Bayesian models. We investigate the statistical accuracy of the resulting confidence

  5. Final report for LDRD project 11-0783 : directed robots for increased military manpower effectiveness.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohrer, Brandon Robinson; Rothganger, Fredrick H.; Wagner, John S.; Xavier, Patrick Gordon; Morrow, James Dan

    2011-09-01

    The purpose of this LDRD is to develop technology allowing warfighters to provide high-level commands to their unmanned assets, freeing them to command a group of them or commit the bulk of their attention elsewhere. To this end, a brain-emulating cognition and control architecture (BECCA) was developed, incorporating novel and uniquely capable feature creation and reinforcement learning algorithms. BECCA was demonstrated on both a mobile manipulator platform and on a seven degree of freedom serial link robot arm. Existing military ground robots are almost universally teleoperated and occupy the complete attention of an operator. They may remove a soldier from harm's way, but they do not necessarily reduce manpower requirements. Current research efforts to solve the problem of autonomous operation in an unstructured, dynamic environment fall short of the desired performance. In order to increase the effectiveness of unmanned vehicle (UV) operators, we proposed to develop robots that can be 'directed' rather than remote-controlled. They are instructed and trained by human operators, rather than driven. The technical approach is modeled closely on psychological and neuroscientific models of human learning. Two Sandia-developed models are utilized in this effort: the Sandia Cognitive Framework (SCF), a cognitive psychology-based model of human processes, and BECCA, a psychophysical-based model of learning, motor control, and conceptualization. Together, these models span the functional space from perceptuo-motor abilities, to high-level motivational and attentional processes.

  6. Multidimensional confidence regions for pareto, exponential, and normal distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Lennartz, Jens

    2017-01-01

    The two classical approaches in estimation theory are point estimation and confidence interval estimation. A confidence interval contains the unknown parameter of interest of a parametric family of distributions with a probability greater than or equal to a certain value, called confidence coefficient or confidence level. If we deal with multiparametric families of distributions, we are interested in simultaneously estimating the parameter vector by determining a multidimensional confidence r...

  7. Use of a Fish Transportation Barge for Increasing Returns of Steelhead Imprinted for Homing, Final Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harmon, Jerrel R.

    1989-08-01

    The objective of this 7-year National Fisheries Service study, which began is 1982, was to determine if transporting juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) by truck and barge from Dworshak National Fish Hatchery (NFH), on the Clearwater River, to a release site on the Columbia River below Bonneville Dam would result in increased returns of adults to the various fisheries and to the hatchery homing site. During 1982 and 1983, over 500,000 marked juvenile steelhead were serially released as controls from the hatchery or barged as test fish to below Bonneville Dam. Recoveries of marked adults to various recovery sites are complete. Fish released in 1983 showed a stronger homing ability and more rapid upstream migration than test fish released in 1982. Most adults from both control and test releases in 1983 and control releases in 1982 migrated a considerable distance upstream and overwintered in the Snake and Clearwater Rivers--behavior similar to Clearwater River fish previously transported from Lower Granite Dam. In contrast, many of the adults from test releases in 1982 failed to migrate upstream during the fall, overwintered in the Columbia River, and migrated upstream the following spring. Survival of control fish released at Dworshak NFH in late April 1982 was substantially higher than survival of those released in mid-May. Survival and homing of control fish released in late April and early May 1983 were over 10 times that for fish released in late May. Return of adults from normal hatchery releases in 1982 was the highest ever observed at Dworshak NFH.

  8. Which skills boost service provider confidence when managing people presenting with psychiatric emergencies?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poremski, Daniel; Lim, Xin Ya; Kunjithapatham, Ganesh; Koh, Doris; Alexander, Mark; Cheng, Lee

    2016-12-01

    The way service seekers interact with the staff at emergency services has been shown to influence the standard of care, especially in the case of certain psychiatric manifestations. Staff reactions to psychiatric complaints have been linked to their comfort dealing with these types of service users as well as their competencies understanding the illness. It is therefore vital to understand which skills increase confidence in treating psychiatric emergencies. Twenty-six open-ended convergent interviews were conducted with staff working in a psychiatric emergency department. Thematic analysis was used to analyze the data. Participants reported several non-technical skills which developed from exclusively serving people with psychiatric emergencies: 1) Vigilance allowed staff to be sensitive to minor changes in behavior which precede psychiatric emergencies. 2) The ability to negotiate and find tangible solutions was particularly important when dealing with psychiatric complaints which may not have tangible resolutions. 3) The ability to appraise social support networks allowed staff to plan follow-up actions and ensure continuity of care when support was available. 4) The ability to self-reflect allowed participants to learn from their experience and avoid burnout, frustration, and fatigue. Participants also reported several other clinical skills which they gained during training, including teamwork, de-escalating techniques and risk assessment. Tentatively speaking, these skills improve staff's confidence when treating psychiatric emergencies. Certain skills may be generalized to staff working in medical emergency departments who frequently encounter psychiatric complaints.

  9. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of

  10. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of emp

  11. Confidence intervals make a difference : Effects of showing confidence intervals on inferential reasoning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting result

  12. Exhibitors: Full of Confidence Adequate Preparation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    From March 26th,three most important trade fairs for Chinese textile industry opened successively inBeijing.Several exhibitors showed their confidence and preparation to TA Weekly. Bosideng:CHIC is an everlasting marketing chance"We’ll definitely participate in CHIC 2009,with even moreinvestment."Gao Dekang,the President of Bosideng Co.,Ltd said,"Bosideng is going to make full use of this trade fair for furtherdevelopment."According to the organizer of CHIC 2009,Bosidengreserved 1000 square meters for its show."CHIC witnessed the blooming development of Chinese clothingindustry for the last ten years.CHIC has made a progress to catch upwith the world trend as well as in the social influence.It has becomethe pioneer of fashion and is regarded as the releasing center,innovation center and brand center."As a long-term participant,Bosideng has the right to say these words.It is in this fair,Bosideng

  13. Comparison of health confidence in rural, suburban and urban areas in the UK and the USA: a secondary analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Haven, Kristen; Celaya, Martín F; Pierson, Jaclyn; Weisskopf, Aron J; MacKinnon, Neil J

    2013-01-01

    Objective Confidence in healthcare may influence the patients’ utilisation of healthcare resources and perceptions of healthcare quality. We sought to determine whether self-reported confidence in healthcare differed between the UK and the USA, as well as by rurality or urbanicity. Design A secondary analysis of a subset of survey questions regarding self-reported confidence in healthcare from the 2010 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey. Setting Telephone survey of participa...

  14. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  15. Bayesian estimation of keyword confidence in Chinese continuous speech recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAO Jie; LI Xing

    2003-01-01

    In a syllable-based speaker-independent Chinese continuous speech recognition system based on classical Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a Bayesian approach of keyword confidence estimation is studied, which utilizes both acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) score. The Maximum a posteriori (MAP) confidence measure is proposed, and the forward-backward algorithm calculating the MAP confidence scores is deduced. The performance of the MAP confidence measure is evaluated in keyword spotting application and the experiment results show that the MAP confidence scores provide high discriminability for keyword candidates. Furthermore, the MAP confidence measure can be applied to various speech recognition applications.

  16. Phaeohyphomycosis caused by Exophiala spinifera: an increasing disease in young females in mainland China? Two case reports and review of five cases reported from mainland China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Le; Wang, Chong; Shen, Yongnian; Lv, Guixia; She, Xiaodong; Zeng, Rong; Ping, Zhan; Liu, Weida

    2015-03-01

    No more than 30 cases of phaeohyphomycosis caused by Exophiala spinifera have been reported up to now in English and Chinese literature over the past half century. Here, we reported two cases of phaeohyphomycosis caused by E. spinifera and reviewed all the five cases reported from mainland China. These two involved were both young female, one patient experiencing recurrence during pregnancy and the other developing multiple-site infections without apparent immunodeficiency. The aetiological agents were both identified as E. spinifera by molecular analysis. Oral itraconazole was proved effective enough for the first patient, while the combination of itraconazole and terbinafine was needed for the second patient. It seems that infections due to E. spiniferais increasing in China mainland nowadays, usually involving young female.

  17. Heat treatment of organics for increasing anaerobic biodegradability. Annual progress report, June 1, 1976-May 31, 1977. Civil engineering technical report No. 222

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Healy, J.B. Jr.; Owen, W.F.; Stuckey, D.C.; Young, L.Y.; McCarty, P.L.

    1977-06-30

    This report represents the results of the first year of study on the heat treatment of organics to increase its biodegradability by anaerobic bacteria for the microbial production of methane. The purpose of this study is to develop a means for increasing the yield and reducing the cost of methane, a useful energy source. The procedures being evaluated are heat treatment at temperatures up to 250/sup 0/C, under pH ranges of 1 to 13. Included in this report are results on: (1) lignocellulose digestion and acclimation to its products from heat treatment; (2) the fate of waste activated sludge and its cellular nitrogenous compounds; and (3) the biodegradability of model compounds likely to be formed during heat treatment.

  18. Goodbye genome paper, hello genome report: the increasing popularity of 'genome announcements' and their impact on science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David Roy

    2016-06-23

    Next-generation sequencing technologies have revolutionized genomics and altered the scientific publication landscape. Life-science journals abound with genome papers-peer-reviewed descriptions of newly sequenced chromosomes. Although they once filled the pages of Nature and Science, genome papers are now mostly relegated to journals with low-impact factors. Some have forecast the death of the genome paper and argued that they are using up valuable resources and not advancing science. However, the publication rate of genome papers is on the rise. This increase is largely because some journals have created a new category of manuscript called genome reports, which are short, fast-tracked papers describing a chromosome sequence(s), its GenBank accession number and little else. In 2015, for example, more than 2000 genome reports were published, and 2016 is poised to bring even more. Here, I highlight the growing popularity of genome reports and discuss their merits, drawbacks and impact on science and the academic publication infrastructure. Genome reports can be excellent assets for the research community, but they are also being used as quick and easy routes to a publication, and in some instances they are not peer reviewed. One of the best arguments for genome reports is that they are a citable, user-generated genomic resource providing essential methodological and biological information, which may not be present in the sequence database. But they are expensive and time-consuming avenues for achieving such a goal.

  19. CRISIS FOCUS Fundamentals,Confidence and Policy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Entering the third year of the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression, the world economy is still bogged down on the muddy road to recovery. The latest edition of Standard Chartered Bank’s monthly report, Global Focus,

  20. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  1. The role of confidence in world-class sport performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Kate; Thomas, Owen; Maynard, Ian; Bawden, Mark

    2009-09-01

    In this study, we examined the role of confidence in relation to the cognitive, affective, and behavioural responses it elicits, and identified the factors responsible for debilitating confidence within the organizational subculture of world-class sport. Using Vealey's (2001) integrative model of sport confidence as a broad conceptual base, 14 athletes (7 males, 7 females) were interviewed in response to the research aims. Analysis indicated that high sport confidence facilitated performance through its positive effect on athletes' thoughts, feelings, and behaviours. However, the athletes participating in this study were susceptible to factors that served to debilitate their confidence. These factors appeared to be associated with the sources from which they derived their confidence and influenced to some extent by gender. Thus, the focus of interventions designed to enhance sport confidence must reflect the individual needs of the athlete, and might involve identifying an athlete's sources and types of confidence, and ensuring that these are intact during competition preparation phases.

  2. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference.

  3. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904

  4. On the Confidence Interval for the parameter of Poisson Distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Bityukov, S I; Taperechkina, V A

    2000-01-01

    In present paper the possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed and the results of numerical construction of confidence intervals are presented.

  5. Effects of a senior practicum course on nursing students' confidence in speaking up for patient safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Lauren; Anderson, Gabrielle; Ciocca, Rebecca; Shanks, Linda; Enlow, Michele

    2015-03-01

    As patient advocates, nurses are responsible for speaking up against unsafe practices. Nursing students must develop the confidence to speak up for patient safety so that they can hold themselves, as well as their peers and coworkers, accountable for patients' well-being. The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of a senior practicum course on confidence for speaking up for patient safety in nursing students. Confidence in speaking up for patient safety was measured with the Health Professional Education in Patient Safety Survey. The study showed a significant increase in nursing students' confidence after the senior practicum course, but there was no significant change in students' confidence in questioning someone of authority.

  6. Calculating and graphing within-subject confidence intervals for ANOVA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baguley, Thom

    2012-03-01

    The psychological and statistical literature contains several proposals for calculating and plotting confidence intervals (CIs) for within-subjects (repeated measures) ANOVA designs. A key distinction is between intervals supporting inference about patterns of means (and differences between pairs of means, in particular) and those supporting inferences about individual means. In this report, it is argued that CIs for the former are best accomplished by adapting intervals proposed by Cousineau (Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 1, 42-45, 2005) and Morey (Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 4, 61-64, 2008) so that nonoverlapping CIs for individual means correspond to a confidence for their difference that does not include zero. CIs for the latter can be accomplished by fitting a multilevel model. In situations in which both types of inference are of interest, the use of a two-tiered CI is recommended. Free, open-source, cross-platform software for such interval estimates and plots (and for some common alternatives) is provided in the form of R functions for one-way within-subjects and two-way mixed ANOVA designs. These functions provide an easy-to-use solution to the difficult problem of calculating and displaying within-subjects CIs.

  7. Activities-Specific Balance Confidence in People with Multiple Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ylva Nilsagård

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS. Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1–6. Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Gocog, 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to −0.75 with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α=0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  8. Activities-specific balance confidence in people with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1-6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Go(cog), 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to -0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  9. Generalized confidence interval plots using commands or dialogs

    OpenAIRE

    Roger Newson

    2005-01-01

    Confidence intervals may be presented as publication-ready tables or as presentation-ready plots. -eclplot- produces plots of estimates and confidence intervals. It inputs a dataset (or resultsset) with one observation per parameter and variables containing estimates, lower and upper confidence limits, and a fourth variable, against which the confidence intervals are plotted. This resultsset can be used for producing both plots and tables, and may be generated using a spreadsheet or using -st...

  10. Two-Sided Tests and One-Sided Confidence Bounds

    OpenAIRE

    1994-01-01

    Based on the duality between tests and confidence sets we introduce a new method to derive one-sided confidence bounds following the rejection of a null hypothesis with two-sided alternatives. This method imputes that the experimenter is only interested in confidence bounds if the null hypothesis is rejected. Furthermore, we suppose that he is only interested in the direction and a lower confidence bound concerning the distance of the true parameter value to the parameter values in the null h...

  11. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments Peter H. Feiler Charles B. Weinstock John B. Goodenough...Design 8 2.3 Architecture Fault Modeling and Analysis with EMV2 8 2.4 Confidence Map Concepts and Notation 11 Overview of the Stepper-Motor System...Comparison of the SMS Designs 43 Establishing Confidence in the SMS 45 6.1 Confidence Maps for SMS 45 CMU/SEI-2015-TR-006 | SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

  12. How to Strengthen Child Learners’Self-confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李文敬

    2013-01-01

    Self-confidence is closely related to L2 learning. In order to make their learners enjoy English learning, English teach-ers need to strengthen the learners’English learning confidence. This article is to find out English teachers’role to strengthening learners’self-confidence in ELL by means of class observation. The writer concludes improving speaking ability; giving praise and offering gentle error correcting can help to strengthen the learners’confidence.

  13. Teaching and learning: Novice teachers' descriptions of their confidence to teach science content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Barbara Ann

    Statement of the problem. The problem being studied in this research is the relationship between a specific series of integrated science courses in a science teacher preparation program and the actual needs of the science teacher during the first years of teaching practice. Teachers often report that there is a disconnect between the coursework they have taken in college as pre-service teachers and the reality of their classroom practice during their first years of teaching. The intent of this study was to record the descriptions of three teachers who were members of a cohort and took a series of integrated science courses (NSCI series) during their teacher preparation program as it related to the influence of these courses on their teaching practice. The focus of inquiry is guided by a single question: How do former participants in the series of science courses who are currently novice teachers describe their confidence in their ability to teach science content to their middle school students? The theoretical framework was based on Shulman's (1987) pedagogical content knowledge (PCK). PCK involves the teacher understanding the content of science so thoroughly that ways are identified of representing and formulating the subject matter to make it understandable to others. The teacher who has a strong PCK uses powerful analogies, illustrations, examples, explanations and demonstrations that promote personally meaningful student understandings. Novice teachers' reflections on their confidence to teach science content to their middle school students were observed through the lens of PCK. All three novice teachers reported a high confidence level to teach middle school science and attributed their confidence level to a great degree to the integrated science series of courses (NSCI). Method. A qualitative design, specifically a case study, was used for this study. Multiple forms of data collection were employed including a semi structured interview and a focus group

  14. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-13

    ...; ] NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 RIN 3150-AJ20 Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental... Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement,'' that forms the regulatory basis for the proposed... Confidence rule). The NRC staff plans to hold 12 public meetings during the public comment period to present...

  15. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence building...

  16. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no information...

  17. Coverage Accuracy of Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song-xi Chen; Yong-song Qin

    2003-01-01

    Point-wise confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function with random design points are considered. The confidence intervals are those based on the traditional normal approximation and the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing the Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.

  18. Developing Self-confidence%培养自信心

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert Kokoska

    2006-01-01

    @@ Ideally,self-confidence is something you develop early and maintain throughout life. For many of us,though, that just isn't the case-either the process of developing self-confidence is stymied early on,or we lose confidence because of life events.

  19. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  20. Predicting Postfeedback Performance from Students' Confidence in Their Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Timothy A.

    The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…

  1. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  2. Increased prevalence of self-reported psychotic illness predicted by crystal methamphetamine use: Evidence from a high-risk population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lappin, Julia M; Roxburgh, Amanda; Kaye, Sharlene; Chalmers, Jenny; Sara, Grant; Dobbins, Timothy; Burns, Lucinda; Farrell, Michael

    2016-12-01

    The potential of methamphetamine, and high-potency crystal methamphetamine in particular, to precipitate psychotic symptoms and psychotic illness is the subject of much speculation internationally. Established psychotic illness is disabling for individuals and costly to society. The aim of this study was to investigate whether use of crystal methamphetamine was associated with greater prevalence of self-reported psychotic illness, compared to use of other forms of methamphetamine. The sample comprised participants interviewed as part of an annual cross-sectional survey of Australian people who inject drugs. Comparisons were made between groups according to the nature of their methamphetamine use: crystal methamphetamine or other forms of methamphetamine. Self-reported diagnoses of psychotic illness and other mental health problems were compared between groups. Predictors of self-reported psychotic illness were examined using multivariable logistic regression analyses. Self-reported psychotic illness was highly prevalent among users of crystal methamphetamine (12.0%), and significantly more so than among users of other forms of methamphetamine (3.9%) (OR=3.36; CI: 1.03-10.97). Significant predictors of self-reported psychosis in the cohort were: use of crystal methamphetamine; dependent use; lack of education beyond high school; and younger age. Highly increased prevalence of self-reported psychotic illness is associated with use of high-potency crystal methamphetamine in people who inject drugs, particularly where there is dependent use. There is an urgent need to develop effective interventions for dependent crystal methamphetamine use; and a need to monitor for symptoms of psychotic illness in drug-using populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  4. 新西兰《婴儿和幼儿:自信交流、勇敢探索》报告述评%Review on New Zealand's"Infants and Toddlers:Competent and Confident Communicators and Explorers"Report

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘丽平; 邓雪

    2016-01-01

    In order to get the information of New Zealand's early childhood service's experiences and barriers in supporting infants and toddlers to become competent and confident communicators and explorers, the Education Review Office(ERO) launched education reviews in 235early childhood services during term 1 and 2 of 2014 and released this evaluation report. By introducing excellent experiences for the poor services can enhance the level of whole nation in this field, and lay the founda-tion for the growth of New Zealand's new generation.%为了解新西兰的早教机构在发展婴幼儿交流与探索能力方面所取得的成果与不足之处,新西兰教育审查办公室在2014年1至2学期对235家儿童早教机构进行了实地考察和评估,并发布该审查报告。该报告旨在介绍好的经验为尚存不足的机构提供借鉴,以期使全国的早教机构在发展婴幼儿交流与探索能力方面得到进一步的发展,为新西兰新一代的健康成长奠定基础。

  5. Increased frequency and range of sexual behavior in a patient with Parkinson's disease after use of pramipexole: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munhoz, Renato P; Fabiani, Giorgio; Becker, Nilson; Teive, Hélio A G

    2009-04-01

    Several recent reports have linked the use of dopamine agonists (DAs) to a variety of compulsive behaviors in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). These inappropriate behaviors may include pathological gambling, compulsive shopping, and hypersexuality. To report the case of a patient with increased range of sexual behavior after use of pramipexole, a DA. A 67-year-old man with a 7-year diagnosis of PD treated with levodopa and pramipexole presented with a dramatic change in sexual behavior after an increase in DA dose. The patient, who historically was a very shy and conservative person, started to present increased frequency of sexual intercourse with his wife, during which he began speaking obscenities with an extreme preference for anal intercourse, preferences never requested before. After pramipexole was withdrawn, complete remission was observed with return to his usual sexual behavior. Hypersexuality and paraphilias are complications not uncommonly found in patients with PD under dopaminergic treatment. Further studies are needed for the understanding of this complex complication, and particularly the most prevalent relationship between pathological hypersexuality and use of DAs.

  6. ConfidenceSets for Network Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    David Choi, Patrick Wolfe Harvard University Office of Sponsored Research 1350 Massachusetts Ave. Holyoke 727 Cambridge, MA 02138 - REPORT...hence the identification of residual structure in the corresponding partition. K, and they are comprised of small numbers of students. This effect is due

  7. Cortical alpha activity reflects the degree of confidence in committing to an action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan eKubanek

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject’s confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects’ confidence was independent of the reaction time, of eye movement, and of activity of forearm muscles. Furthermore, the effect was not explained by the sensory input modeled by a decision variable. Neither could the effect be explained by a general cognitive state, such as arousal or reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of its button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the degree of a forming commitment to make a hand movement.

  8. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-05-09

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

  9. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  10. Is glycyrrhizin sensitivity increased in anorexia nervosa and should licorice be avoided? Case report and review of the literature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Støving, René K; Lingqvist, Linnéa E; Bonde, Rasmus K

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Hypokalemia is a potentially life-threatening electrolyte disturbance in anorexia nervosa and is most frequently caused by purging behavior. We report a case of severe hypokalemia in anorexia nervosa induced by daily ingestion of approximately 20 g of licorice. METHODS: To confirm...... low daily dose of licorice suggests high glycyrrhizin sensitivity. CONCLUSION: Patients with anorexia nervosa not only have decreased food intake but also selective and sometimes bizarre eating habits that, in association with increased sensitivity to glycyrrhizin, may cause severe hypokalemia....

  11. Ensuring confidence in predictions: A scheme to assess the scientific validity of in silico models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewitt, Mark; Ellison, Claire M; Cronin, Mark T D; Pastor, Manuel; Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Munoz-Muriendas, Jordi; Pognan, Francois; Madden, Judith C

    2015-06-23

    The use of in silico tools within the drug development process to predict a wide range of properties including absorption, distribution, metabolism, elimination and toxicity has become increasingly important due to changes in legislation and both ethical and economic drivers to reduce animal testing. Whilst in silico tools have been used for decades there remains reluctance to accept predictions based on these methods particularly in regulatory settings. This apprehension arises in part due to lack of confidence in the reliability, robustness and applicability of the models. To address this issue we propose a scheme for the verification of in silico models that enables end users and modellers to assess the scientific validity of models in accordance with the principles of good computer modelling practice. We report here the implementation of the scheme within the Innovative Medicines Initiative project "eTOX" (electronic toxicity) and its application to the in silico models developed within the frame of this project.

  12. Feature Augmentation for Learning Confidence Measure in Stereo Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunok; Min, Dongbo; Kim, Seungryong; Sohn, Kwanghoon

    2017-09-08

    Confidence estimation is essential for refining stereo matching results through a post-processing step. This problem has recently been studied using a learning-based approach, which demonstrates a substantial improvement on conventional simple non-learning based methods. However, the formulation of learning-based methods that individually estimates the confidence of each pixel disregards spatial coherency that might exist in the confidence map, thus providing a limited performance under challenging conditions. Our key observation is that the confidence features and resulting confidence maps are smoothly varying in the spatial domain, and highly correlated within the local regions of an image. We present a new approach that imposes spatial consistency on the confidence estimation. Specifically, a set of robust confidence features is extracted from each superpixel decomposed using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and then these features are concatenated with pixel-level confidence features. The features are then enhanced through adaptive filtering in the feature domain. In addition, the resulting confidence map, estimated using the confidence features with a random regression forest, is further improved through K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) based aggregation scheme on both pixel-and superpixel-level. To validate the proposed confidence estimation scheme, we employ cost modulation or ground control points (GCPs) based optimization in stereo matching. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on various benchmarks including challenging outdoor scenes.

  13. Assignment Confidence in Localization of the Hand Motor Cortex: Comparison of Structural Imaging With Functional MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Neslin; Mohan, Suyash; Maralani, Pejman J; Duddukuri, Srikalyan; O'Rourke, Donald M; Melhem, Elias R; Wolf, Ronald L

    2016-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assign confidence levels to structural MRI and functional MRI (fMRI) for localization of the primary motor cortex. Ninety-one fMRI studies with at least one motor task (178 hemispheres) were identified. Three anatomic assessments were used to localize the primary motor cortex: relation between the superior frontal sulcus and precentral sulcus; cortical thickness; and configuration of the precentral knob. In 105 hemispheres, interreader agreement was assessed for two investigators with different experience levels. Confidence ratings from 0 to 5 (0, no confidence; 5, 100% confidence) were assigned for fMRI and each anatomic localization method. Cortical thickness had the highest confidence rating (mean, 4.90 ± 0.47 [SD]) with only one failure. The relation between the superior frontal sulcus and precentral sulcus had the lowest confidence rating (4.33 ± 0.91) with three failures. The greatest statistical significance was observed for the cortical thickness and superior frontal sulcus-precentral sulcus methods (post hoc Bonferroni test, p Confidence rating scores were significantly higher for the cortical thickness sign than for fMRI results (4.72 ± 0.54) for a single motor task (post hoc Bonferroni test, p = 0.006); however, the mean confidence rating for fMRI improved to 4.87 ± 0.36 when additional motor tasks were performed. Interreader differences were least for the cortical thickness sign (paired t test, t = 4.25, p confidence regarding localization of the primary motor cortex; however, localization of motor function is more specific when combined with fMRI findings. Multiple techniques can be used to increase confidence in identifying the hand motor cortex.

  14. The Relationship Between Eyewitness Confidence and Identification Accuracy: A New Synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wixted, John T; Wells, Gary L

    2017-05-01

    The U.S. legal system increasingly accepts the idea that the confidence expressed by an eyewitness who identified a suspect from a lineup provides little information as to the accuracy of that identification. There was a time when this pessimistic assessment was entirely reasonable because of the questionable eyewitness-identification procedures that police commonly employed. However, after more than 30 years of eyewitness-identification research, our understanding of how to properly conduct a lineup has evolved considerably, and the time seems ripe to ask how eyewitness confidence informs accuracy under more pristine testing conditions (e.g., initial, uncontaminated memory tests using fair lineups, with no lineup administrator influence, and with an immediate confidence statement). Under those conditions, mock-crime studies and police department field studies have consistently shown that, for adults, (a) confidence and accuracy are strongly related and (b) high-confidence suspect identifications are remarkably accurate. However, when certain non-pristine testing conditions prevail (e.g., when unfair lineups are used), the accuracy of even a high-confidence suspect ID is seriously compromised. Unfortunately, some jurisdictions have not yet made reforms that would create pristine testing conditions and, hence, our conclusions about the reliability of high-confidence identifications cannot yet be applied to those jurisdictions. However, understanding the information value of eyewitness confidence under pristine testing conditions can help the criminal justice system to simultaneously achieve both of its main objectives: to exonerate the innocent (by better appreciating that initial, low-confidence suspect identifications are error prone) and to convict the guilty (by better appreciating that initial, high-confidence suspect identifications are surprisingly accurate under proper testing conditions).

  15. Perceived Sources of Team Confidence in Soccer and Basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vande Broek, Gert; Boen, Filip

    2015-07-01

    Although it is generally accepted that team confidence is beneficial for optimal team functioning and performance, little is known about the predictors of team confidence. The present study was aimed to shed light on the precursors of both high and low team confidence in two different sports. A distinction is made between sources of process-oriented team confidence (i.e., collective efficacy) and sources of outcome-oriented team confidence (i.e., team outcome confidence), which have often been confounded in previous research. In a first step, two qualitative studies were conducted to identify all possible sources of team confidence in basketball and in soccer. In a second step, three quantitative studies were conducted to further investigate the sources of team outcome confidence in soccer (N = 1028) and in basketball (N = 867), and the sources of collective efficacy in basketball (N = 825). Players perceived high-quality performance as the most important factor for their team outcome confidence. With regard to collective efficacy, team enthusiasm was perceived as most predictive determinant. Positive coaching emerged as second most decisive factor for both types of team confidence. In contrast, negative communication and expression by the players or the coach was perceived as the most decisive predictor of low levels of team confidence. At item level, all studies pointed to the importance of team confidence expression by the athlete leaders (i.e., leader figures within the team) and the coach. The present manuscript sheds light on the precursors of high and low levels of team confidence. Athlete leaders and the coach emerged as key triggers of both upward and downward spirals of team confidence, thereby contaminating all team members.

  16. Dopaminergic stimulation enhances confidence and accuracy in seeing rapidly presented words

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lou, Hans Olav Christensen; Skewes, Joshua; Thomsen, Kristine Rømer

    2011-01-01

    dopamine release. We therefore hypothesize that the neurotransmitter dopamine may function as a regulator of subjective confidence of visual perception in the normal brain. Although much is known about the effect of stimulation by neurotransmitters on cognitive functions, their effect on subjective...... confidence of perception has never been recorded experimentally before. In a controlled study of 24 normal, healthy female university students with the dopamine agonist pergolide given orally, we show that dopaminergic activation increases confidence in seeing rapidly presented words. It also improves...

  17. Increased cognitive problem reporting after information about chemotherapy-induced cognitive decline: The moderating role of stigma consciousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, W; Das, E; Schagen, S B

    2017-01-01

    Information about treatment side effects can increase their occurrence; breast cancer (BC) patients showed increased cognitive problem reporting (CPR) and decreased memory performance after information about cognitive side effects. The current study extends previous research on adverse information effects (AIE) by investigating (a) risk factors, (b) underlying mechanisms and (c) an intervention to reduce AIE. In an online experiment, 175 female BC patients were randomly assigned to one of three conditions. In the two experimental groups, patients were informed about the possible occurrence of cognitive problems after chemotherapy with (intervention group) or without (experimental group) reassuring information that 'there are still patients who score well on memory tests'. In the control group, no reference to chemotherapy-related cognitive problems was made. Main dependent measure was CPR. Four moderating and five mediating processes were examined. CPR increased with higher levels of stigma consciousness in the two experimental groups, but not in the no-information control group. Merely informing patients about cognitive side effects may increase their occurrence, especially among individuals vulnerable to patient stereotypes. Adding reassuring information is not sufficient to reduce AIE.

  18. Cilnidipine lowered psychological stress-induced increase in blood pressure in a hypertensive man: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsuji Sadatoshi

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In some hypertensive patients, psychological stress makes blood pressure difficult to control and causes physical symptoms such as headache or dizziness. We report the case of a hypertensive man whose psychological stress-induced increase in blood pressure was attenuated by cilnidipine. Case Presentation The patient (a 72-year-old man had hypertension and was on antihypertensive therapy. When mentally concentrating, he experienced occipital headaches and dizziness, and despite thorough testing, no abnormality was found. He was subsequently referred to our department. The mirror drawing test (MDT, a psychological stress test, increased blood pressure by about 40 mmHg, and the patient described occipital headache. Plasma noradrenaline level also increased from 212 to 548 pg/ml. We therefore switched the patient from nifedipine, an L-type calcium (Ca channel blocker, to cilnidipine, an L-type/N-type Ca channel blocker with suppressive effects on sympathetic activity. Cilnipidine attenuated MDT-induced an increase in blood pressure and plasma noradrenaline level and prevented the development of headache during testing. Conclusion These findings suggest that cilnidipine is a useful antihypertensive agent for hypertensive patients in whom psychological stress causes marked fluctuations in blood pressure.

  19. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  20. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2017-07-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  1. "Yes, we can!" review on team confidence in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Mertens, Niels; Feltz, Deborah; Boen, Filip

    2017-08-01

    During the last decade, team confidence has received more and more attention in the sport psychology literature. Research has demonstrated that athletes who are more confident in their team's abilities exert more effort, set more challenging goals, are more resilient when facing adversities, and ultimately perform better. This article reviews the existing literature in order to provide more clarity in terms of the conceptualization and the operationalization of team confidence. We thereby distinguish between collective efficacy (i.e., process-oriented team confidence) and team outcome confidence (i.e., outcome-oriented team confidence). In addition, both the sources as well as the outcomes of team confidence will be discussed. Furthermore, we will go deeper into the dispersion of team confidence and we will evaluate the current guidelines on how to measure both types of team confidence. Building upon this base, the article then highlights interesting avenues for future research in order to further improve both our theoretical knowledge on team confidence and its application to the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A Method to Compute Multiplicity Corrected Confidence Intervals for Odds Ratios and Other Relative Effect Estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Jimmy Thomas Efird; Susan Searles Nielsen

    2008-01-01

    Epidemiological studies commonly test multiple null hypotheses. In some situations it may be appropriate to account for multiplicity using statistical methodology rather than simply interpreting results with greater caution as the number of comparisons increases. Given the one-to-one relationship that exists between confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, we derive a method based upon the Hochberg step-up procedure to obtain multiplicity corrected confidence intervals (CI) for odds ratios ...

  3. A Route Confidence Evaluation Method for Reliable Hierarchical Text Categorization

    CERN Document Server

    Hatami, Nima; Armano, Giuliano

    2012-01-01

    Hierarchical Text Categorization (HTC) is becoming increasingly important with the rapidly growing amount of text data available in the World Wide Web. Among the different strategies proposed to cope with HTC, the Local Classifier per Node (LCN) approach attains good performance by mirroring the underlying class hierarchy while enforcing a top-down strategy in the testing step. However, the problem of embedding hierarchical information (parent-child relationship) to improve the performance of HTC systems still remains open. A confidence evaluation method for a selected route in the hierarchy is proposed to evaluate the reliability of the final candidate labels in an HTC system. In order to take into account the information embedded in the hierarchy, weight factors are used to take into account the importance of each level. An acceptance/rejection strategy in the top-down decision making process is proposed, which improves the overall categorization accuracy by rejecting a few percentage of samples, i.e., thos...

  4. Representation of retrieval confidence by single neurons in the human medial temporal lobe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutishauser, Ueli; Ye, Shengxuan; Koroma, Matthieu; Tudusciuc, Oana; Ross, Ian B.; Chung, Jeffrey M.; Mamelak, Adam N.

    2015-01-01

    Memory-based decisions are often accompanied by an assessment of choice certainty, but the mechanisms of such confidence judgments remain unknown. We studied the response of 1065 individual neurons in the human hippocampus and amygdala while neurosurgical patients made memory retrieval decisions together with a confidence judgment. Combining behavioral, neuronal and computational analysis, we identified a population of memory-selective (MS) neurons whose activity signaled stimulus familiarity and confidence as assessed by subjective report. In contrast, the activity of visually selective (VS) neurons was not sensitive to memory strength. The groups further differed in response latency, tuning, and extracellular waveforms. The information provided by MS neurons was sufficient for a race model to decide stimulus familiarity and retrieval confidence. Together, this demonstrates a trial-by-trial relationship between a specific group of neurons and declared memory strength in humans. We suggest that VS and MS neurons are a substrate for declarative memories. PMID:26053402

  5. Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

    2012-11-01

    Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  6. A Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp improves trainee confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allan, Catherine K; Tannous, Paul; DeWitt, Elizabeth; Farias, Michael; Mansfield, Laura; Ronai, Christina; Schidlow, David; Sanders, Stephen P; Lock, James E; Newburger, Jane W; Brown, David W

    2016-12-01

    Introduction New paediatric cardiology trainees are required to rapidly assimilate knowledge and gain clinical skills to which they have limited or no exposure during residency. The Pediatric Cardiology Fellowship Boot Camp (PCBC) at Boston Children's Hospital was designed to provide incoming fellows with an intensive exposure to congenital cardiac pathology and a broad overview of major areas of paediatric cardiology practice. The PCBC curriculum was designed by core faculty in cardiac pathology, echocardiography, electrophysiology, interventional cardiology, exercise physiology, and cardiac intensive care. Individual faculty contributed learning objectives, which were refined by fellowship directors and used to build a programme of didactics, hands-on/simulation-based activities, and self-guided learning opportunities. A total of 16 incoming fellows participated in the 4-week boot camp, with no concurrent clinical responsibilities, over 2 years. On the basis of pre- and post-PCBC surveys, 80% of trainees strongly agreed that they felt more prepared for clinical responsibilities, and a similar percentage felt that PCBC should be offered to future incoming fellows. Fellows showed significant increase in their confidence in all specific knowledge and skills related to the learning objectives. Fellows rated hands-on learning experiences and simulation-based exercises most highly. We describe a novel 4-week-long boot camp designed to expose incoming paediatric cardiology fellows to the broad spectrum of knowledge and skills required for the practice of paediatric cardiology. The experience increased trainee confidence and sense of preparedness to begin fellowship-related responsibilities. Given that highly interactive activities were rated most highly, boot camps in paediatric cardiology should strongly emphasise these elements.

  7. Confidence and clinical judgement in community nurses managing venous leg ulceration - A judgement analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adderley, Una J; Thompson, Carl

    2017-07-19

    The variation in the management of venous leg ulceration in the UK is partly attributable to an uncertain clinical environment but the quality of judgements is influenced by the how well nurses' confidence and accuracy are aligned. To assess UK community nurses' confidence in the accuracy of their diagnostic judgements and treatment choices when managing venous leg ulceration. Judgement Analysis. UK community and primary care nursing services. 18 community non-specialist nurses working in district (home) nursing teams and general practitioner services and 18 community tissue viability specialist nurses. Using judgement analysis methods, 18 community non-specialist nurses and 18 community tissue viability specialist nurses made diagnoses and treatment judgements about compression therapy for 110 clinical scenarios and indicated their confidence for each judgement. An expert panel made consensus judgements for the same scenarios and these judgements were used as a standard against which to compare the participants. Confidence analysis was used to assess the nurses' confidence about their diagnostic judgements and treatment choices. Despite being very experienced, both non-specialist nurses' and specialist tissue viability nurses' levels of confidence were not well calibrated with their levels of accuracy. The results of this study are important as errors resulting from both over and under-confidence at the diagnostic phase of management may influence treatment choices, and thus increase the chances of treatment error. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  8. How target-lure similarity shapes confidence judgments in multiple-alternative decision tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horry, Ruth; Brewer, Neil

    2016-12-01

    Confidence judgments in 2-alternative decisions have been the subject of a great deal of research in cognitive psychology. Sequential sampling models have been particularly successful at explaining confidence judgments in such decisions and the relationships between confidence, accuracy, and response latencies. Across 5 experiments, we derived predictions from sequential sampling models and applied them to more complex decisions: multiple-alternative decisions, and compound decisions, such as eyewitness identification tasks, in which a target may be present or absent within the array of items that can be selected. We hypothesized that, when a decision-maker chooses an item, confidence in that decision reflects the relative evidence for the chosen item over all unchosen items. We tested this hypothesis by manipulating the similarity between the target (or target-replacement, for trials in which the target was not present in the array) and the weakest lure(s). As target-lure similarity decreased, confidence in correct target identifications increased, while response latencies decreased. When the decision-maker chose none of the items, the similarity between the target-replacement and the lures was unrelated to confidence. We conclude that similar mechanisms underpin confidence judgments in multiple-alternative and positive compound decisions as in simpler, 2-alternative decisions. A goal of future research should be to formally extend sequential sampling models to more complex decisions, such that it will be possible to establish whether diffusion or accumulator models provide a better fit to the data. (PsycINFO Database Record

  9. Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa B Gilkey

    Full Text Available To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents.We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR, varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status.A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15% or delay (27%. Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63 as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86. Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68, varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66, and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42.Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

  10. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    . It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall...... test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  11. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.

  12. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  13. The Effect of Self-confidence in SLA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李艳

    2012-01-01

      Krashen’s affective filter theory drew researchers’ attention to the fresh field of internal factors of learners. But researchers seem to pay too much attention to the other factors while tending to neglect a factor that we cannot afford to play down in language learning research—self-confidence. This paper is designed to discuss the close relationship between self-confidence and some of the other important affective factors, and furthermore raise appropriate concern over self-confidence.

  14. Generalized Confidence Interval for the Common Coefficient of Variation

    OpenAIRE

    Behboodian, Javad; Jafari, Ali Akbar

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we consider the problem of constructing the confidence interval and testing hypothesis for the common coefficient of variation (CV) of several normal populations. A new method is suggested using the concepts of generalized p-value and generalized confidence interval. Using this new method and a method proposed by Tian (2005), we obtain a shorter confidence interval for the common CV. This combination method has good properties in terms of length and coverage probability compa...

  15. Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?

    OpenAIRE

    Panagiotis Konstantinou; Athanasios Tagkalakis

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, possibly bec...

  16. Decreasing self-reported cognitive biases and increasing clinical insight through meta-cognitive training in patients with chronic schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawęda, Łukasz; Krężołek, Martyna; Olbryś, Joanna; Turska, Agnieszka; Kokoszka, Andrzej

    2015-09-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the impact of meta-cognitive training (MCT) on cognitive biases, symptoms, clinical insight, and general functioning among low-level functioning persons diagnosed with chronic schizophrenia who were attending a daily Community Social Support Group Program; we compared the treatment-as-usual (TAU) condition with the MCT + TAU condition. Forty-four patients diagnosed with chronic schizophrenia were allocated to either the MCT + treatment-as-usual condition or the treatment-as-usual (TAU) condition. Delusion and hallucination severity, cognitive biases, clinical insight, and global functioning were assessed pre- and post-treatment (clinical trial NCT02187692). No significant changes were found in symptom severity as measured with the PSYRATS. Conversely, a medium to large effect size was observed for delusional ideation changes when assessed by the self-report measure (Paranoia Checklist). MCT was found to ameliorate cognitive biases as measured by the self-report scale at large effect size, however, no changes in jumping to conclusions (the Fish Task) and theory of mind deficits ("Reading the Mind in the Eyes" Test) were found in the behavioral tasks. MCT increased insight at large effect size. No changes in global functioning were found between the two conditions. Low intensity intervention. No follow-up assessment was provided. Only PSYRATS was assessed blind to patient allocation. MCT has a beneficial effect on low-functioning chronic schizophrenic patients in ameliorating cognitive biases and increasing clinical insight. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  18. Cultural competence knowledge and confidence after classroom activities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Muzumdar, Jagannath Mohan; Holiday-Goodman, Monica; Black, Curtis; Powers, Mary

    2010-01-01

    To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum...

  19. Believing in "us": exploring leaders' capacity to enhance team confidence and performance by building a sense of shared social identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Haslam, S Alexander; Steffens, Niklas K; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Boen, Filip

    2015-03-01

    The present study examined the impact of athlete leaders' perceived confidence on their teammates' confidence and performance. Male basketball players (N = 102) participated in groups of 4. To manipulate leaders' team confidence, the appointed athlete leader of each newly formed basketball team (a confederate) expressed either high or low team confidence. The results revealed an effect of team confidence contagion such that team members had greater team confidence when the leader expressed high (rather than low) confidence in the team's success. Second, the present study sought to explain the mechanisms through which this contagion occurs. In line with the social identity approach to leadership, structural equation modeling demonstrated that this effect was partially mediated by team members' increased team identification. Third, findings indicated that when leaders expressed high team confidence, team members' performance increased during the test, but when leaders expressed low confidence, team members' performance decreased. Athlete leaders thus have the capacity to shape team members' confidence--and hence their performance--in both positive and negative ways. In particular, by showing that they believe in "our team," leaders are able not only to make "us" a psychological reality, but also to transform "us" into an effective operational unit. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  20. Knowledge Confidence and Desire for Further Diabetes-Management Education among Nurses and Personal Support Workers in Long-Term Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Corita; Hall, Peter; Ebsary, Sally; Hannay, Scott; Hayes-Cardinal, Lynn; Husein, Nadira

    2016-06-01

    Diabetes care in the long-term care (LTC) setting is complicated by increased prevalence of comorbidities, age-related changes in medication tolerance, frailty and limited resources. Registered nurses (RNs), registered practical nurses (RPNs) and personal support workers (PSWs) are responsible for front-line diabetes care; however, there is limited formal diabetes education in this setting. The current study aimed to assess the knowledge confidence and desire for additional diabetes education among nurses and PSWs in the LTC setting. We studied 89 RNs, RPNs and PSWs (Mage=43.6, 94.3% female) in 2 LTC facilities in the Kitchener-Waterloo area who participated in an online survey assessing knowledge and confidence in 6 key areas of diabetes care (nutrition, insulin, oral medications, hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia and sick-day management). Interest in further diabetes education was also explored. Self-rated knowledge and confidence were generally moderate to high, ranging from 46% to 79% being moderately to very knowledgeable and from 61% to 74% being moderately to very confident. Knowledge and confidence was highest for nutrition and management of hypo- and hyperglycemia and lower for sick-day management, oral medications and insulin. There were significant differences between clinicians such that PSWs reported less knowledge and confidence than RNs and RPNs on most parameters. Among the whole sample, 85% wanted education about diabetes, and this rate did not vary by occupation. The most commonly reported areas for additional education concerning diabetes were for management of hypo- and hyperglycemia (30% to 31%) and insulin (31%). Overall, the findings indicate moderate levels of self-rated knowledge across diabetes care areas; however, most clinicians feel there is room for more diabetes-care education, particularly regarding insulin and management of hypo- and hyperglycemia. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Diabetes Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  1. Causal Relationships between Communication Confidence, Beliefs about Group Work, and Willingness to Communicate in Foreign Language Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushino, Kumiko

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on the causal relationships between three factors in second language (L2) group work settings: communication confidence (i.e., confidence in one's ability to communicate), beliefs about group work, and willingness to communicate (WTC). A questionnaire was administered to 729 first-year university students in Japan. A model…

  2. Causal Relationships between Communication Confidence, Beliefs about Group Work, and Willingness to Communicate in Foreign Language Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushino, Kumiko

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on the causal relationships between three factors in second language (L2) group work settings: communication confidence (i.e., confidence in one's ability to communicate), beliefs about group work, and willingness to communicate (WTC). A questionnaire was administered to 729 first-year university students in Japan. A model…

  3. Girls' Participation in Physics in Single Sex Classes in Mixed Schools in Relation to Confidence and Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillibrand, Eileen; Robinson, Peter; Brawn, Richard; Osborn, Albert

    1999-01-01

    Reports the findings from a three-year longitudinal case study of two single-sex General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) physics classes in a mixed comprehensive school in England. Results indicate that girls who elected to study physics in single-sex classes gain confidence in the subject. This gain in confidence is associated with…

  4. How to Avoid Errors in Error Propagation: Prediction Intervals and Confidence Intervals in Forest Biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilly, P.; Yanai, R. D.; Buckley, H. L.; Case, B. S.; Woollons, R. C.; Holdaway, R. J.; Johnson, J.

    2016-12-01

    Calculations of forest biomass and elemental content require many measurements and models, each contributing uncertainty to the final estimates. While sampling error is commonly reported, based on replicate plots, error due to uncertainty in the regression used to estimate biomass from tree diameter is usually not quantified. Some published estimates of uncertainty due to the regression models have used the uncertainty in the prediction of individuals, ignoring uncertainty in the mean, while others have propagated uncertainty in the mean while ignoring individual variation. Using the simple case of the calcium concentration of sugar maple leaves, we compare the variation among individuals (the standard deviation) to the uncertainty in the mean (the standard error) and illustrate the declining importance in the prediction of individual concentrations as the number of individuals increases. For allometric models, the analogous statistics are the prediction interval (or the residual variation in the model fit) and the confidence interval (describing the uncertainty in the best fit model). The effect of propagating these two sources of error is illustrated using the mass of sugar maple foliage. The uncertainty in individual tree predictions was large for plots with few trees; for plots with 30 trees or more, the uncertainty in individuals was less important than the uncertainty in the mean. Authors of previously published analyses have reanalyzed their data to show the magnitude of these two sources of uncertainty in scales ranging from experimental plots to entire countries. The most correct analysis will take both sources of uncertainty into account, but for practical purposes, country-level reports of uncertainty in carbon stocks, as required by the IPCC, can ignore the uncertainty in individuals. Ignoring the uncertainty in the mean will lead to exaggerated estimates of confidence in estimates of forest biomass and carbon and nutrient contents.

  5. Confidence building on the Korean Peninsula: A conceptual development for the cooperative monitoring of limited-force deployment zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vannoni, M.; Duggan, R. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States). Cooperative Monitoring Center; Nam, M.K.; Moon, K.K.; Kim, M.J. [Korea Inst. for Defense Analyses, Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Arms Control Research Center

    1997-04-01

    Confidence building measures (CBMs), particularly military ones, that address the security needs of North and South Korea could decrease the risk of conflict on the Korean Peninsula and help create an environment in which to negotiate a peace regime. The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) and the Cooperative Monitoring Center (CMC) of Sandia National Laboratories collaborated to identify potential CBMs and define associated monitoring. The project is a conceptual analysis of political and technical options for confidence building that might be feasible in Korea at some future time. KIDA first analyzed current security conditions and options for CBMs. Their conclusions are presented as a hypothetical agreement to strengthen the Armistice Agreement by establishing Limited Force Deployment Zones along the Military Demarcation Line. The goal of the hypothetical agreement is to increase mutual security and build confidence. The CMC then used KIDA`s scenario to develop a strategy for cooperative monitoring the agreement. Cooperative monitoring is the collecting, analyzing and sharing of agreed information among parties to an agreement and typically relies on the use of commercially available technology. A cooperative monitoring regime must be consistent with the agreement`s terms; the geographic, logistic, military, and political factors in the Korean setting; and the capabilities of monitoring technologies. This report describes the security situation on the Korean peninsula, relevant precedents from other regions, the hypothetical agreement for reducing military tensions, a monitoring strategy for the hypothetical Korean agreement, examples of implementation, and a description of applicable monitoring technologies and procedures.

  6. International kidney paired donation transplantations to increase kidney transplant of O group and highly sensitized patient: First report from India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kute, Vivek B; Patel, Himanshu V; Shah, Pankaj R; Modi, Pranjal R; Shah, Veena R; Rizvi, Sayyed J; Pal, Bipin C; Shah, Priya S; Wakhare, Pavan S; Shinde, Saiprasad G; Ghodela, Vijay A; Varyani, Umesh T; Patel, Minaxi H; Trivedi, Varsha B; Trivedi, Hargovind L

    2017-01-01

    AIM To report the first international living related two way kidney paired donation (KPD) transplantation from India which occurred on 17th February 2015 after legal permission from authorization committee. METHODS Donor recipient pairs were from Portugal and India who were highly sensitized and ABO incompatible with their spouse respectively. The two donor recipient pairs had negative lymphocyte cross-matching, flow cross-match and donor specific antibody in two way kidney exchange with the intended KPD donor. Local KPD options were fully explored for Indian patient prior to embarking on international KPD. RESULTS Both pairs underwent simultaneous uneventful kidney transplant surgeries and creatinine was 1 mg/dL on tacrolimus based immunosuppression at 11 mo follow up. The uniqueness of these transplantations was that they are first international KPD transplantations in our center. CONCLUSION International KPD will increases quality and quantity of living donor kidney transplantation. This could be an important step to solving the kidney shortage with additional benefit of reduced costs, improved quality and increased access for difficult to match incompatible pairs like O blood group patient with non-O donor and sensitized patient. To the best of our knowledge this is first international KPD transplantation from India. PMID:28280697

  7. Effect of CALIPSO Cloud Aerosol Discrimination (CAD) Confidence Levels on Observations of Aerosol Properties near Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weidong; Marshak, Alexander; Varnai, Tamas; Liu, Zhaoyan

    2012-01-01

    CALIPSO aerosol backscatter enhancement in the transition zone between clouds and clear sky areas is revisited with particular attention to effects of data selection based on the confidence level of cloud-aerosol discrimination (CAD). The results show that backscatter behavior in the transition zone strongly depends on the CAD confidence level. Higher confidence level data has a flatter backscatter far away from clouds and a much sharper increase near clouds (within 4 km), thus a smaller transition zone. For high confidence level data it is shown that the overall backscatter enhancement is more pronounced for small clear-air segments and horizontally larger clouds. The results suggest that data selection based on CAD reduces the possible effects of cloud contamination when studying aerosol properties in the vicinity of clouds.

  8. Gender, Math Confidence, and Grit: Relationships with Quantitative Skills and Performance in an Undergraduate Biology Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flanagan, K. M.; Einarson, J.

    2017-01-01

    In a world filled with big data, mathematical models, and statistics, the development of strong quantitative skills is becoming increasingly critical for modern biologists. Teachers in this field must understand how students acquire quantitative skills and explore barriers experienced by students when developing these skills. In this study, we examine the interrelationships among gender, grit, and math confidence for student performance on a pre–post quantitative skills assessment and overall performance in an undergraduate biology course. Here, we show that females significantly underperformed relative to males on a quantitative skills assessment at the start of term. However, females showed significantly higher gains over the semester, such that the gender gap in performance was nearly eliminated by the end of the semester. Math confidence plays an important role in the performance on both the pre and post quantitative skills assessments and overall performance in the course. The effect of grit on student performance, however, is mediated by a student’s math confidence; as math confidence increases, the positive effect of grit decreases. Consequently, the positive impact of a student’s grittiness is observed most strongly for those students with low math confidence. We also found grit to be positively associated with the midterm score and the final grade in the course. Given the relationships established in this study among gender, grit, and math confidence, we provide “instructor actions” from the literature that can be applied in the classroom to promote the development of quantitative skills in light of our findings. PMID:28798209

  9. Consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in internet payments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franc Bračun

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Performing payment transactions over the Internet is becoming increasingly important. Whenever one interacts with others, he or she faces the problem of uncertainty because in interacting with others, one makes him or herself vulnerable, i.e. one can be betrayed. Thus, perceived risk and confidence are of fundamental importance in electronic payment transactions. A higher risk leads to greater hesitance about entering into a business relationship with a high degree of uncertainty; and therefore, to an increased need for confidence. This paper has two objectives. First, it aims to introduce and test a theoretical model that predicts consumer and merchant acceptance of the Internet payment solution by explaining the complex set of relationships among the key factors influencing confidence in electronic payment transactions. Second, the paper attempts to shed light on the complex interrelationship among confidence, control and perceived risk. An empirical study was conducted to test the proposed model using data from consumers and merchants in Slovenia. The results show how perceived risk dimensions and post-transaction control influence consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in electronic payment transactions, and the impact of confidence on the adoption of mass-market on-line payment solutions.

  10. Factors influencing the confidence in core clinical skills among hospital nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Young Ok; Kim, Minju; Park, Kyung-Yeon; Yang, Jin-Hyang

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence to perform 20 clinical skills and identify factors influencing the confidence of hospital nurses. A descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted with 550 hospital nurses at four hospitals in B city, Korea. The confidence to perform, frequency of performance and educational needs on 20 clinical skills identified by Korean Accreditation Board of Nursing were measured with a self-reported questionnaire. Data were analysed by SPSS 19.0 (IBM Corporation, Armonk, New York, USA). Participants were 27 years old on average, and 49.5% had less than 3 years of total working experience. The most confident skill was measuring vital signs, whereas the least confident skill was using defibrillator. In results of stepwise regression, confidence to perform was associated with educational needs, total working experience, frequency of performance and position. It is necessary to give opportunities to practice clinical skills at both schools and clinics for producing well-prepared nurses.

  11. Provider confidence in opioid prescribing and chronic pain management: results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Amy Cs; Moman, Rajat N; Moeschler, Susan M; Eldrige, Jason S; Hooten, W Michael

    2017-01-01

    Many providers report lack of confidence in managing patients with chronic pain. Thus, the primary aim of this study was to investigate the associations of provider confidence in managing chronic pain with their practice behaviors and demographics. The primary outcome measure was the results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey, which was administered to clinicians attending a pain-focused continuing medical education conference. Nonparametric correlations were assessed using Spearman's rho. Of the respondents, 55.0% were women, 92.8% were white, and 56.5% were physicians. Primary care providers accounted for 56.5% of the total respondents. The majority of respondents (60.8%) did not feel confident managing patients with chronic pain. Provider confidence in managing chronic pain was positively correlated with 1) following an opioid therapy protocol (P=0.001), 2) the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse (P=0.006), and 3) using a consistent practice-based approach to improve their comfort level with prescribing opioids (Pconfidence was negatively correlated with the perception that treating pain patients was a "problem in my practice" (P=0.005). In this study, the majority of providers did not feel confident managing chronic pain. However, provider confidence was associated with a protocolized and consistent practice-based approach toward managing opioids and the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse. Future studies should investigate whether provider confidence is associated with measurable competence in managing chronic pain and explore approaches to enhance appropriate levels of confidence in caring for patients with chronic pain.

  12. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  13. The Appropriateness of Confidence Ratings in Clinical Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Howard N.

    1986-01-01

    Reviewed studies in which clinicians made judgments and then rated the degree of confidence that they had in each of their judgments. Results reveal little support for the hypothesis that clinicians are overconfident. Confidence ratings were related positively to the validity of judgments in a number of studies. Experienced clinicians made more…

  14. The Restoration of Confidence in Science and Technology Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bybee, Rodger W.

    1985-01-01

    An analysis is given of the crisis and loss of confidence in science and technology education, due in part to maintenance of outdated purposes, programs, and practices. The need to clarify and reformulate goals and purposes and thus restore confidence is discussed. (MNS)

  15. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  16. Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way

  17. Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    1998-01-01

    Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…

  18. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  19. Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way

  20. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…