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Sample records for reported greater confidence

  1. Greater patient confidence yields greater functional outcomes after primary total shoulder arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styron, Joseph F; Higuera, Carlos A; Strnad, Greg; Iannotti, Joseph P

    2015-08-01

    Patient satisfaction is increasingly being tied to reimbursement rates, and patient satisfaction is often associated with improving functionality and decreasing disability postoperatively. This study sought to determine if a total shoulder arthroplasty patient's preoperative confidence in his or her ability to attain the level of activity desired would influence postoperative functional scores. Patients undergoing a primary total shoulder arthroplasty at a single institution were asked to complete a preoperative questionnaire with multiple items including baseline symptom severity measures and their confidence in reaching their level of desired functionality postoperatively (scored 0-10). Patients then completed an identical postoperative questionnaire at their follow-up visits. Associations between the patient's confidence in attaining treatment goals and functional outcomes was established by multiple linear regression models that were adjusted for gender, age, body mass index, baseline 12-Item Short Form Health Survey mental component scores, college education, smoking status, baseline functional scores, and length of follow-up. Patients had a high level of confidence that their outcome would match their expectations, with an average score of 7.8 (range, 0-10; 28.4% reported a full 10/10 confidence). For every 1-point increase in confidence, patients experienced an average increase in their function score of 2.7 points (P = .039) and improvement in their pain score of 2.0 (P = .033) according to the Penn Shoulder Score. There was no significant association with the patient's 12-Item Short Form Health Survey score postoperatively. Patients with greater preoperative confidence actually have significantly better postoperative functional outcomes than their less confident peers even with adjustment for other known risk factors. Copyright © 2015 Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery Board of Trustees. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Views That Are Shared With Others Are Expressed With Greater Confidence and Greater Fluency Independent of Any Social Influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher; Adiv, Shiri; Schwarz, Norbert

    2016-05-01

    Research on group influence has yielded a prototypical majority effect (PME): Majority views are endorsed faster and with greater confidence than minority views, with the difference increasing with majority size. The PME was attributed to conformity pressure enhancing confidence in consensual views and causing inhibition in venturing deviant opinions. Our results, however, indicate that PME for binary choices can arise from the process underlying confidence and latency independent of social influence. PME was demonstrated for tasks and conditions that are stripped of social relevance; it was observed in within-individual analyses in contrasting the individual's more frequent and less frequent responses to the same item, and was found for the predictions of others' responses. A self-consistency model, which assumes that choice and confidence are based on the sampling of representations from a commonly shared pool of representations, yielded a PME for confidence and latency. Behavioral implications of the results are discussed.

  3. Conservatives report, but liberals display, greater happiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojcik, Sean P; Hovasapian, Arpine; Graham, Jesse; Motyl, Matt; Ditto, Peter H

    2015-03-13

    Research suggesting that political conservatives are happier than political liberals has relied exclusively on self-report measures of subjective well-being. We show that this finding is fully mediated by conservatives' self-enhancing style of self-report (study 1; N = 1433) and then describe three studies drawing from "big data" sources to assess liberal-conservative differences in happiness-related behavior (studies 2 to 4; N = 4936). Relative to conservatives, liberals more frequently used positive emotional language in their speech and smiled more intensely and genuinely in photographs. Our results were consistent across large samples of online survey takers, U.S. politicians, Twitter users, and LinkedIn users. Our findings illustrate the nuanced relationship between political ideology, self-enhancement, and happiness and illuminate the contradictory ways that happiness differences can manifest across behavior and self-reports.

  4. Promoting greater Federal energy productivity [Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hopkins, Mark; Dudich, Luther

    2003-03-05

    This document is a close-out report describing the work done under this DOE grant to improve Federal Energy Productivity. Over the four years covered in this document, the Alliance To Save Energy conducted liaison with the private sector through our Federal Energy Productivity Task Force. In this time, the Alliance held several successful workshops on the uses of metering in Federal facilities and other meetings. We also conducted significant research on energy efficiency, financing, facilitated studies of potential energy savings in energy intensive agencies, and undertook other tasks outlined in this report.

  5. 77 FR 5471 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-03

    ... AGENCY 40 CFR Parts 141 and 142 Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR... Internet on February 23, 2012, to obtain stakeholder input on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule as.... Background: Consumer Confidence Reports are a key part of the public's right-to-know as established in...

  6. Training and Mandated Reporters' Confidence Levels: A Correlational Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelberger, Cathy S.

    2011-01-01

    Child maltreatment is a costly social issue, both financially and in terms of children's well-being. All 50 states and many countries have enacted mandatory reporting laws, but not all of them require mandated reporter training. A multitude of studies have shown that many mandated reporters do not report all of the cases of suspected child abuse…

  7. Confidant Relations in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Isaacs

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91% reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture.

  8. 77 FR 57566 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-18

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review and Request for Public Comment on Potential Approaches to Electronic Delivery of the CCR;...

  9. Management of orthodontic emergencies in primary care - self-reported confidence of general dental practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popat, H; Thomas, K; Farnell, D J J

    2016-07-08

    Objective To determine general dental practitioners' (GDPs) confidence in managing orthodontic emergencies.Design Cross-sectional study.Setting Primary dental care.Subjects and methods An online survey was distributed to dentists practicing in Wales. The survey collected basic demographic information and included descriptions of ten common orthodontic emergency scenarios.Main outcome measure Respondents' self-reported confidence in managing the orthodontic emergency scenarios on a 5-point Likert scale. Differences between the Likert responses and the demographic variables were investigated using chi-squared tests.Results The median number of orthodontic emergencies encountered by respondents over the previous six months was 1. Overall, the self-reported confidence of respondents was high with 7 of the 10 scenarios presented scoring a median of 4 indicating that GDPs were 'confident' in their management. Statistical analysis revealed that GDPs who saw more orthodontic emergencies in the previous six months were more confident when managing the presented scenarios. Other variables such as age, gender, geographic location of practice and number of years practising dentistry were not associated with self-reported confidence.Conclusions Despite GDPs encountering very few orthodontic emergencies in primary care, they appear to be confident in dealing with commonly arising orthodontic emergency situations.

  10. Knee Confidence as it Relates to Self-Reported and Objective Correlates of Knee Osteoarthritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skou, Søren T; Rasmussen, Sten; Simonsen, Ole

    2015-01-01

    osteoarthritis (OA). Background Lack of knee confidence is a frequent symptom in patients with knee OA, but little is known of associations between knee confidence and other common correlates of knee OA. Methods Baseline data from 220 patients with knee OA were applied in ordinal regression analyses, with knee...... confidence, assessed using item Q3 of the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score, as the dependent variable and self-reported (pain on walking, general health, fear of movement, self-efficacy, function, and previous serious injury) and objective measures (muscle strength, 20-m walk time...

  11. Patients' confidence in methods of blood pressure assessment and their reported adherence to antihypertensive medications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Paul; Zeng, Jennifer; Tuttle, Laura; Viera, Anthony J

    2017-10-01

    Adherence to antihypertensive medications is often less than optimal. Research suggests that patients have limited confidence regarding whether office blood pressure (BP) assessments represent their 'true' BP, which may further promote poor adherence to BP-lowering medication. We assessed peoples' confidence in the methods of BP assessment and examined the associations between patients' confidence levels and medication adherence comparing office and home BP-monitoring techniques. We surveyed US adults aged 30 years or older (N=1010), all of whom had undergone an office BP measurement within the past 6 months. Respondents who indicated being prescribed antihypertensive medication (N=429) were asked to indicate their level of confidence on a 1-9 scale that BP measurements represented their true BP, and their adherence to antihypertensive medication using the eight-item Morisky Medical Adherence Scale (MMAS-8). Respondents had equal confidence that both office BP measurements and home monitoring measurements reflected their true BP (median=7). Respondents indicated that they would have slightly more confidence in ambulatory BP monitoring (median=8). As respondents' confidence in the assessments of BP from office measurements and home monitoring increased from 1 to 9, the mean MMAS-8 score, adjusted for age, race, and education, increased from 5.38 to 6.25 (P=0.053) and from 5.50 to 6.14 (P=0.25), respectively. As patients' confidence in a BP assessment method increases, so too does their reported adherence to prescribed antihypertensive medications. This finding further supports the incorporation of methods in which patients can feel confident that the measurements are representative of their 'true' BP.

  12. Commitment, confidence, and concerns: Assessing health care professionals' child maltreatment reporting attitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Rebecca H; Olson-Dorff, Denyse; Reiland, Hannah M; Budzak-Garza, Ann

    2017-02-24

    Given that childhood maltreatment is a significant international public health problem contributing to all major morbidity and mortality determinants, there is need to explore current practices and readiness of health care professionals (HCPs) to assess maltreatment, identify maltreatment risk factors, and complete mandated reporting. HCPs (N=114) completed a child maltreatment mandated reporting measure to assess level of comfort with mandated reporting, commitment to the reporting role, and confidence in the child protection system to take action as needed. Additional questions explored comfort discussing maltreatment and risk factors for maltreatment in a medical setting and knowledge of community resources. Results indicated that HCPs were committed to their mandated reporting role and did not perceive substantial potential negative consequences of reporting. However, there were concerns regarding lack of confidence in the system's ability to respond sufficiently to reports. Despite commitment to the reporting role, results showed that large proportions of HCPs do not routinely screen for maltreatment, feel uncomfortable discussing maltreatment history, and lack knowledge about community resources. Additional training efforts must be prioritized in health care systems to improve short- and long-term health outcomes.

  13. An experimental predeployment training program improves self-reported patient treatment confidence and preparedness of Army combat medics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerhardt, Robert T; Hermstad, Erik L; Oakes, Michael; Wiegert, Richard S; Oliver, Jeffrey

    2008-01-01

    To develop and assess impact of a focused review of International Trauma Life Support (ITLS) and combat casualty care with hands-on procedure training for U.S. Army medics deploying to Iraq. The setting was a U.S. Army Medical Department Center and School and Camp Eagle, Iraq. Investigators developed and implemented a command-approved prospective educational intervention with a post hoc survey. Subjects completed a three-day course with simulator and live-tissue procedure laboratories. At deployment's end, medics were surveyed for experience, confidence, and preparedness in treating various casualty severity levels. Investigators used two-tailed t-test with unequal variance for continuous data and chi-square for categorical data. Twenty-nine medics deployed. Eight completed the experimental program. Twenty-one of 25 (84%) available medics completed the survey including six of the eight (75%) experimental medics. The experimental group reported significantly greater levels of preparedness and confidence treating "minimal," "delayed," and "immediate" casualties at arrival in Iraq. These differences dissipated progressively over the time course of the deployment. This experimental program increased combat medic confidence and perceived level of preparedness in treating several patient severity levels. Further research is warranted to determine if the experimental intervention objectively improves patient care quality and translates into lives saved early in deployment.

  14. Arthroscopic Tuberoplasty for a Malunited Greater Tuberosity Fracture: A Case Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killen, Maire-Clare; Charalambous, Charalambos P

    2015-01-01

    Superior migration and malunion of a fractured greater tuberosity can lead to mechanical subacromial impingement with resultant ongoing pain and limitation of abduction. We describe such a case successfully treated with arthroscopic excision of the protruding portion of the greater tuberosity, with marked improvement in pain and range of movement. The greater tuberosity was exposed by elevating the supraspinatus tendon, which was reattached at the end of the procedure. This case, along with outcomes of similar techniques previously reported in literature suggest that arthroscopic excision of a superiorly malunited greater tuberosity is associated with good symptomatic outcome and preservation of rotator cuff function.

  15. Why do Greater one-horned rhinoceroses (Rhinoceros unicornis) die? - An evaluation of necropsy reports

    OpenAIRE

    Wyss, F; Wenker, C; Robert, N.; Clauss, Marcus; von Houwald, F

    2012-01-01

    Many case reports about different diseases in greater one-horned rhinoceroses (Rhinoceros unicornis) have been published, but an overview of the prevalence of diseases and an evaluation of causes of death is lacking. Necropsy reports of 106 greater one-horned rhinoceroses from 38 zoos worldwide were evaluated. Half of them were from adult animals, a third from perinatal deaths/stillbirths and the rest from juveniles and sub adults. Cardiac problems (cardiomyopathy, myocarditis, heart infarct)...

  16. Appropriateness of reporting statistical results in orthodontics: the dominance of P values over confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polychronopoulou, Argy; Pandis, Nikolaos; Eliades, Theodore

    2011-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to search the orthodontic literature and determine the frequency of reporting of confidence intervals (CIs) in orthodontic journals with an impact factor. The six latest issues of the American Journal of Orthodontics and Dentofacial Orthopedics, the European Journal of Orthodontics, and the Angle Orthodontist were hand searched and the reporting of CIs, P values, and implementation of univariate or multivariate statistical analyses were recorded. Additionally, studies were classified according to the type/design as cross-sectional, case-control, cohort, and clinical trials, and according to the subject of the study as growth/genetics, behaviour/psychology, diagnosis/treatment, and biomaterials/biomechanics. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics followed by univariate examination of statistical associations, logistic regression, and multivariate modelling. CI reporting was very limited and was recorded in only 6 per cent of the included published studies. CI reporting was independent of journal, study area, and design. Studies that used multivariate statistical analyses had a higher probability of reporting CIs compared with those using univariate statistical analyses. Misunderstanding of the use of P values and CIs may have important implications in implementation of research findings in clinical practice.

  17. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance. Research Report. ETS RR-07-03

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of confidence in relation to cognitive abilities, personality traits, and metacognition. Confidence was measured as it was expressed in answers to each test item during the administration of reading and listening sections of the TOEFL® iBT. The confidence scores were correlated with the accuracy scores from the TOEFL…

  18. Sample Preparation Report of the Fourth OPCW Confidence Building Exercise on Biomedical Sample Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Udey, R. N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Corzett, T. H. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Alcaraz, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2014-07-03

    Following the successful completion of the 3rd biomedical confidence building exercise (February 2013 – March 2013), which included the analysis of plasma and urine samples spiked at low ppb levels as part of the exercise scenario, another confidence building exercise was targeted to be conducted in 2014. In this 4th exercise, it was desired to focus specifically on the analysis of plasma samples. The scenario was designed as an investigation of an alleged use of chemical weapons where plasma samples were collected, as plasma has been reported to contain CWA adducts which remain present in the human body for several weeks (Solano et al. 2008). In the 3rd exercise most participants used the fluoride regeneration method to analyze for the presence of nerve agents in plasma samples. For the 4th biomedical exercise it was decided to evaluate the analysis of human plasma samples for the presence/absence of the VX adducts and aged adducts to blood proteins (e.g., VX-butyrylcholinesterase (BuChE) and aged BuChE adducts using a pepsin digest technique to yield nonapeptides; or equivalent). As the aging of VX-BuChE adducts is relatively slow (t1/2 = 77 hr at 37 °C [Aurbek et al. 2009]), soman (GD), which ages much more quickly (t1/2 = 9 min at 37 °C [Masson et al. 2010]), was used to simulate an aged VX sample. Additional objectives of this exercise included having laboratories assess novel OP-adducted plasma sample preparation techniques and analytical instrumentation methodologies, as well as refining/designating the reporting formats for these new techniques.

  19. Undergraduate baccalaureate nursing students' self-reported confidence in learning about patient safety in the classroom and clinical settings: an annual cross-sectional study (2010-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukewich, Julia; Edge, Dana S; Tranmer, Joan; Raymond, June; Miron, Jennifer; Ginsburg, Liane; VanDenKerkhof, Elizabeth

    2015-05-01

    Given the increasing incidence of adverse events and medication errors in healthcare settings, a greater emphasis is being placed on the integration of patient safety competencies into health professional education. Nurses play an important role in preventing and minimizing harm in the healthcare setting. Although patient safety concepts are generally incorporated within many undergraduate nursing programs, the level of students' confidence in learning about patient safety remains unclear. Self-reported patient safety competence has been operationalized as confidence in learning about various dimensions of patient safety. The present study explores nursing students' self-reported confidence in learning about patient safety during their undergraduate baccalaureate nursing program. Cross-sectional study with a nested cohort component conducted annually from 2010 to 2013. Participants were recruited from one Canadian university with a four-year baccalaureate of nursing science program. All students enrolled in the program were eligible to participate. The Health Professional Education in Patient Safety Survey was administered annually. The Health Professional Education in Patient Safety Survey captures how the six dimensions of the Canadian Patient Safety Institute Safety Competencies Framework and broader patient safety issues are addressed in health professional education, as well as respondents' self-reported comfort in speaking up about patient safety issues. In general, nursing students were relatively confident in what they were learning about the clinical dimensions of patient safety, but they were less confident about the sociocultural aspects of patient safety. Confidence in what they were learning in the clinical setting about working in teams, managing adverse events and responding to adverse events declined in upper years. The majority of students did not feel comfortable speaking up about patient safety issues. The nested cohort analysis confirmed these

  20. Trends in P Value, Confidence Interval, and Power Analysis Reporting in Health Professions Education Research Reports: A Systematic Appraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Eduardo F; Serrano, Valentina P; Rethlefsen, Melissa L; Pandian, T K; Naik, Nimesh D; West, Colin P; Pankratz, V Shane; Cook, David A

    2017-06-20

    To characterize reporting of P values, confidence intervals (CIs), and statistical power in health professions education research (HPER) through manual and computerized analysis of published research reports. The authors searched PubMed, Embase, and CINAHL on May 7, 2016, for comparative research studies. For manual analysis of abstracts and main texts, they randomly sampled 250 HPER reports published in 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2015, and 100 biomedical research reports published in 1985 and 2015. Automated computerized analysis of abstracts included all HPER reports published 1970-2015. In the 2015 HPER sample, P values were reported in 69/100 abstracts and 94 main texts. CIs were reported in 6 abstracts and 22 main texts. Most P values (≥ 77%) were ≤ .05. Across all years, 60/164 two-group HPER studies had ≥ 80% power to detect a between-group difference of 0.5 standard deviations. From 1985 to 2015, the proportion of HPER abstracts reporting a CI did not change significantly (odds ratio [OR] 2.87; 95% CI 1.04, 7.88) whereas that of main texts reporting a CI increased (OR 1.96; 95% CI 1.39, 2.78). Comparison with biomedical studies revealed similar reporting of P values, but more frequent use of CIs in biomedicine. Automated analysis of 56,440 HPER abstracts found 14,867 (26.3%) reporting a P value, 3,024 (5.4%) reporting a CI, and increased reporting of P values and CIs from 1970 to 2015. P values are ubiquitous in HPER, CIs are rarely reported, and most studies are underpowered. Most reported P values would be considered statistically significant.

  1. Technical Report: Algorithm and Implementation for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLoughlin, Kevin [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-01-11

    This report describes the design and implementation of an algorithm for estimating relative microbial abundances, together with confidence limits, using data from metagenomic DNA sequencing. For the background behind this project and a detailed discussion of our modeling approach for metagenomic data, we refer the reader to our earlier technical report, dated March 4, 2014. Briefly, we described a fully Bayesian generative model for paired-end sequence read data, incorporating the effects of the relative abundances, the distribution of sequence fragment lengths, fragment position bias, sequencing errors and variations between the sampled genomes and the nearest reference genomes. A distinctive feature of our modeling approach is the use of a Chinese restaurant process (CRP) to describe the selection of genomes to be sampled, and thus the relative abundances. The CRP component is desirable for fitting abundances to reads that may map ambiguously to multiple targets, because it naturally leads to sparse solutions that select the best representative from each set of nearly equivalent genomes.

  2. Metastasis of greater wing of sphenoid bone in bronchogenic carcinoma: a unusual case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Prashant K; Mital, Mukta; Dwivedi, Amit; Gupta, Kumkum

    2011-01-01

    Orbital metastasis in systemic cancer is known to occur and occurs in up to 7% of all systemic cancers. Orbital features typically present after the diagnosis of the primary tumor. In about 20% of cases, there is no known primary cancer at the time of presentation with orbital metastatic disease. Here we report a case of a 60-year-old male smoker, in whom proptosis, due to metastasis in greater wing of left sphenoid bone secondary to bronchogenic carcinoma, was the initial symptom. We could not find in literature metastasis to greater wing of sphenoid bone due to small cell carcinoma of lung.

  3. Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor arising from the greater omentum: Case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tokunaga Masakazu

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumors (MPNSTs are rare soft tissue tumors that arise from a peripheral nerve or exhibit nerve sheath differentiation. Most of these tumors arise on the trunk, extremities, or head and neck regions; they are very rarely located in the abdominal cavity. The patient was a 71-year-old man who was referred to our hospital for a mass and pain in the right lower abdomen. Abdominal computed tomography revealed a large (9 × 9 cm, well-circumscribed, lobulated, heterogeneously enhanced mass in the pelvis. Exploratory laparotomy revealed a large mass in the greater omentum, and the tumor was completely excised. Histopathological analysis revealed that the tumor was composed of spindle cells with high mitotic activity. On staining the tumor, positive results were obtained for S-100 but negative results were obtained for c-kit, cluster of differentiation (CD34, α-smooth muscle actin, and desmin. These findings strongly supported a diagnosis of MPNST primarily arising from the greater omentum. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reported case of an MPNST arising from the greater omentum. In this report, we have described the case of a patient with an MPNST arising from the greater omentum and have discussed the clinical characteristics and management of MPNSTs.

  4. Self-reported confidence in prescribing skills correlates poorly with assessed competence in fourth-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, David J; Tichelaar, Jelle; van Agtmael, Michiel A; de Vries, Theo P G M; Richir, Milan C

    2015-07-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between students' self-reported confidence and their objectively assessed competence in prescribing. We assessed the competence in several prescribing skills of 403 fourth-year medical students at the VU University Medical Center, the Netherlands, in a formative simulated examination on a 10-point scale (1 = very low; 10 = very high). Afterwards, the students were asked to rate their confidence in performing each of the prescribing skills on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = very unsure; 5 = very confident). Their assessments were then compared with their self-confidence ratings. Students' overall prescribing performance was adequate (7.0 ± 0.8), but they lacked confidence in 2 essential prescribing skills. Overall, there was a weak positive correlation (r = 0.2, P confidence and actual competence. Therefore, this study suggests that self-reported confidence is not an accurate measure of prescribing competence, and that students lack insight into their own strengths and weaknesses in prescribing. Future studies should focus on developing validated and reliable instruments so that students can assess their prescribing skills.

  5. Explicit representation of confidence informs future value-based decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Folke, Tomas; Jacobsen, Catrine; Fleming, Stephen M.

    2016-01-01

    Humans can reflect on decisions and report variable levels of confidence. But why maintain an explicit representation of confidence for choices that have already been made and therefore cannot be undone? Here we show that an explicit representation of confidence is harnessed for subsequent changes...... of mind. Specifically, when confidence is low, participants are more likely to change their minds when the same choice is presented again, an effect that is most pronounced in participants with greater fidelity in their confidence reports. Furthermore, we show that choices reported with high confidence...... of confidence has a positive impact on the quality of future value-based decisions....

  6. Variations in band reporting rate and implications for kill rate in Greater Snow Geese

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Souchay

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available We assessed spatial and temporal variation in reporting probability of banded Greater Snow Geese (Chen caerulescens atlantica shot by hunters in eastern North America and evaluated potential residual biases in kill rate estimation. Adult Greater Snow Geese were marked with reward (value: US$10, $20, $30, $50, and $100 and standard bands ($0, control in the Canadian Arctic from 2003 to 2005. We used a spatially explicit multinomial model based on 200 direct recoveries from 4256 banded geese to estimate reporting rate and harvest rate. We found that reporting rate for standard bands varied over time whereas harvest rate was higher in Canada than in the U.S. The reporting probability increased from 0.40 ± 0.11 in the first year of the study to 0.82 ± 0.14 and 0.84 ± 0.13 the second and third years, respectively. Overall, these reporting rates are higher than two previous estimates for this population, which leads to lower estimates of kill rate. However, the large annual differences in reporting rates found in this study lead to uncertainty in the estimation of kill rate. We suggest that the increase in reporting rate in the last two year of the study may be due to the dissemination of information among hunters regarding the presence of reward bands on birds, resulting in increased reporting rate for all bands. This raises issues about the need to adequately inform the public in such large-scale studies to avoid undesirable temporal trends over the course of the study.

  7. The impact of a structured clinical training course on interns' self-reported confidence with core clinical urology skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, C; Norton, S; Nolan, J M; Whelan, C; Sullivan, J F; Quinlan, M; Sheikh, M; Mc Dermott, T E D; Lynch, T H; Manecksha, R P

    2017-05-04

    Undergraduate training in core urology skills is lacking in many Irish training programmes. Our aim was to assess newly qualified doctors' experience and confidence with core urological competencies. A questionnaire survey covering exposure to urology and confidence with core clinical skills was circulated to all candidates. The group then attended a skills course covering male/female catheterisation, insertion of three-way catheters, bladder irrigation and management of long-term suprapubic catheters. The groups were re-surveyed following the course. Forty-five interns completed the pre-course questionnaire (group 1) and 27 interns completed the post-course questionnaire (group 2). 24/45 (53%) had no experience of catheter insertion on a patient during their undergraduate training. 26/45 (58%) were unsupervised during their first catheter insertion. 12/45 (27%) had inserted a female catheter. 18/45 (40%) had inserted a three-way catheter. 12/45 (27%) had changed a suprapubic catheter. 40/45 (89%) in group 1 reported 'good' or 'excellent' confidence with male urinary catheterisation, compared to 25/27 (92.5%) in group 2. 18/45 (40%) in group 1 reported 'none' or 'poor' confidence with female catheterisation, compared to 7/27 (26%) in group 2. 22/45 (49%) in group 1 reported 'none' or 'poor' confidence with insertion of three-way catheters, compared to 2/27 (7%) in group 2. 32/45 (71%) in group 1 reported 'none' or 'poor' confidence in changing long-term suprapubic catheters, falling to 3/27 (11%) in group 2. This study raises concerns about newly qualified doctors' practical experience in urology. We suggest that this course improves knowledge and confidence with practical urology skills and should be incorporated into intern induction.

  8. Hepatitis from Greater celandine (Chelidonium majus L.): review of literature and report of a new case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moro, Paola A; Cassetti, Federica; Giugliano, Gianni; Falce, Maria T; Mazzanti, Gabriela; Menniti-Ippolito, Francesca; Raschetti, Roberto; Santuccio, Carmela

    2009-07-15

    Folk medicine is a rich source of useful therapeutic tools. Nevertheless, use of medicinal plants can have unwanted, negative effects. By means of the description of an adverse reaction to a herbal remedy, we highlight the need for better efficacy-toxicity studies on these products. To report a case of possible Chelidonium majus L. (Greater celandine)-induced hepatitis and evaluate the past published cases. We outlined the main features of hepatitis associated with use of Chelidonium majus by providing a review of cases reported and analysing in detail a new one. Several cases of acute hepatitis related to Greater celandine consumption were found in the literature. The assessment for causality using Naranjo probability scale showed a probable relationship between the liver injury and the consumption of Chelidonium majus in the case we described. Our case, along with the other ones reported in the literature, increases the concern about the safety of oral use of Chelidonium majus. Plants used in traditional medicine are not necessarily harmless. Customers and prescribers should be aware of this, especially when a herbal drug is used with therapeutic purposes in absence of reliable studies of clinical efficacy and benefit-risk assessment.

  9. Childhood osteosarcoma of greater wing of sphenoid: case report and review of literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meel, Rachna; Thulkar, Sanjay; Sharma, Mehar Chand; Jagadesan, Pandjatcharan; Mohanti, Bidhu Kalyan; Sharma, Suresh Chandra; Bakhshi, Sameer

    2012-03-01

    Primary osteosarcoma of skull base is extremely rare. We present a case of primary osteosarcoma arising in greater wing of sphenoid in a child. Our patient had an incomplete excision after which he received adjuvant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. There was good response to adjuvant chemoradiotherapy and the patient is disease free at a follow-up of 18 months. Treatment of skull base osteosarcomas is difficult, as complete excision is often not possible. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first case of sphenoid wing osteosarcoma in childhood to be reported in literature.

  10. Training and self-reported confidence for dysphagia management among speech-language pathologists in the schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, Cynthia R; Dean-Claytor, Ashli

    2008-04-01

    The number of children requiring dysphagia management in the schools is increasing. This article reports survey findings relative to speech-language pathologists' (SLPs') training and self-rated confidence to treat children with swallowing and feeding disorders in the schools. Surveys were completed by 222 SLPs representing Virginia and its contiguous states. Queries on dysphagia training targeted formal education, on-the-job experiences, and current caseload information. In addition, participants self-rated their confidence to treat dysphagia. Statistically significant relationships between training and self-confidence levels were demonstrated. Specifically, participation in continuing education and currency of educational activities revealed significant and moderately strong correlations to self-reported confidence to treat children with dysphagia in the school setting. Findings support continuing education as a correlate to self-reported confidence to treat dysphagia in the school setting among SLPs in Virginia and its contiguous states. Further research is merited to ascertain if these findings reflect national trends. Quantifiable, cost-effective, and evidenced-based dysphagia training, consultancy, and management models are needed if school-based SLPs are to meet the increasing challenges of their diverse caseloads.

  11. Training and Self-Reported Confidence for Dysphagia Management among Speech-Language Pathologists in the Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, Cynthia R.; Dean-Claytor, Ashli

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The number of children requiring dysphagia management in the schools is increasing. This article reports survey findings relative to speech-language pathologists' (SLPs') training and self-rated confidence to treat children with swallowing and feeding disorders in the schools. Method: Surveys were completed by 222 SLPs representing…

  12. Medical student self-reported confidence in obstetrics and gynaecology: development of a core clinical competencies document

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Clinical competencies in obstetrics and gynaecology have not been clearly defined for Australian medical students, the growing numbers of which may impact clinical teaching. Our aim was to administer and validate a competencies list, for self-evaluation by medical students of their confidence to manage common clinical tasks in obstetrics and gynaecology; to evaluate students’ views on course changes that may result from increasing class sizes. Methods A draft list of competencies was peer-reviewed, and discussed at two student focus groups. The resultant list was administered as part of an 81 item online survey. Results Sixty-eight percent (N = 172) of those eligible completed the survey. Most respondents (75.8%) agreed or strongly agreed that they felt confident and well equipped to recognise and manage most common and important obstetric and gynaecological conditions. Confidence was greater for women, and for those who received a higher assessment grade. Free-text data highlight reasons for lack of clinical experience that may impact perceived confidence. Conclusions The document listing competencies for medical students and educators is useful for discussions around a national curriculum in obstetrics and gynaecology in medical schools, including the best methods of delivery, particularly in the context of increasing student numbers. PMID:23634953

  13. Visual Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-10-14

    Visual confidence refers to an observer's ability to judge the accuracy of her perceptual decisions. Even though confidence judgments have been recorded since the early days of psychophysics, only recently have they been recognized as essential for a deeper understanding of visual perception. The reluctance to study visual confidence may have come in part from obtaining convincing experimental evidence in favor of metacognitive abilities rather than just perceptual sensitivity. Some effort has thus been dedicated to offer different experimental paradigms to study visual confidence in humans and nonhuman animals. To understand the origins of confidence judgments, investigators have developed two competing frameworks. The approach based on signal decision theory is popular but fails to account for response times. In contrast, the approach based on accumulation of evidence models naturally includes the dynamics of perceptual decisions. These models can explain a range of results, including the apparently paradoxical dissociation between performance and confidence that is sometimes observed.

  14. A Partnership Approach to Genetic and Genomic Graduate Nursing Curriculum: Report of a New Course's Impact on Student Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Tamara; Dale, Rosemary

    2016-10-01

    Genetics and genomics have historically not been included in nursing curricula but are increasingly important in health care delivery. A course was developed through a collaboration between nursing and pathology faculty, combining nursing practice and genomics content expertise. Graduate nursing students enrolled in the course self-reported confidence in the 38 American Nurses Association essential genetic and genomic competencies prior to, immediately after, and 9 months after completing the course. Before the course, students reported low confidence across all competencies. Students indicated a significant improvement in confidence in all competencies with an average 2-point improvement on a 5-point Likert scale, both immediately and 9 months after course completion. A course rooted in basic science directly linked to nursing application can prepare nurses to develop a sustained confidence in core competencies. Cross-disciplinary collaborations with faculty who have expertise in genomics may be an effective strategy for nursing programs. [J Nurs Educ. 2016;55(10):574-578.]. Copyright 2016, SLACK Incorporated.

  15. Suspected Greater Celandine hepatotoxicity: liver-specific causality evaluation of published case reports from Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teschke, Rolf; Glass, Xaver; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel

    2012-03-01

    In 21 published case reports, the use of the herb Greater Celandine (GC) (Chelidonium majus L.) has been causally related to liver injury, but a variety of confounding variables were evident that might have offset causality. This study reanalyses causality levels in these cases with a liver-specific causality evaluation method. All 21 cases were submitted to the liver-specific, standardized, structured, quantitative and updated scale of the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences. This scale considers, among other items, latency period, course of alanine aminotransferase after treatment discontinuation, risk factors, comedication and alternative causes. Using this method for assessment, causality for GC was highly probable in two and probable in six cases, with lower causality grading in the remaining 13 cases. In these patients, causality for GC was possible in 10 cases and excluded in three cases. On the basis of the eight cases with highly probable and probable causality gradings, GC hepatotoxicity represents an idiosyncratic reaction of the metabolic type, whereas immunologic or obligatory hepatotoxic features are lacking. In some cases, alternative diagnoses and poor data quality were confounding variables that reduced causality levels. Confounding variables reduced causality levels for GC in reported cases of liver injury, but there is still striking evidence for herb-induced liver injury by GC with high causality gradings. GC hepatotoxicity is caused by an idiosyncratic reaction of the metabolic form, but there is uncertainty with respect to its culprit(s).

  16. Students who developed logical reasoning skills reported improved confidence in drug dose calculation: Feedback from remedial maths classes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shelton, Chris

    2016-06-01

    The safe administration of drugs is a focus of attention in healthcare. It is regarded as acceptable that a formula card or mnemonic can be used to find the correct dose and fill a prescription even though this removes any requirement for performing the underlying computation. Feedback and discussion in class reveal that confidence in arithmetic skills can be low even when students are able to pass the end of semester drug calculation exam. To see if confidence in the understanding and performance of arithmetic for drug calculations can be increased by emphasising student's innate powers of logical reasoning after reflection. Remedial classes offered for students who have declared a dislike or lack of confidence in arithmetic have been developed from student feedback adopting a reasoning by logical step methodology. Students who gave up two hours of their free learning time were observed to engage seriously with the learning methods, focussing on the innate ability to perform logical reasoning necessary for drug calculation problems. Working in small groups allowed some discussion of the route to the answer and this was followed by class discussion and reflection. The results were recorded as weekly self-assessment scores for confidence in calculation. A self-selecting group who successfully completed the end of semester drug calculation exam reported low to moderate confidence in arithmetic. After four weeks focussing on logical skills a significant increase in self-belief was measured. This continued to rise in students who remained in the classes. Many students hold a negative belief regarding their own mathematical abilities. This restricts the learning of arithmetic skills making alternate routes using mnemonics and memorised steps an attractive alternative. Practising stepwise logical reasoning skills consolidated by personal reflection has been effective in developing student's confidence and awareness of their innate powers of deduction supporting an

  17. Earning public trust and confidence: Requisites for managing radioactive wastes. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-01

    The Task Force on Radioactive Waste Management was created in April 1991 by former Secretary James D. Watkins, who asked the group to analyze the critical institutional question of how the Department of Energy (DOE) might strengthen public trust and confidence in the civilian radioactive waste management program. The panel met eight times over a period of 27 months and heard formal presentations from nearly 100 representatives of state and local governments, non-governmental organizations, and senior DOE Headquarters and Field Office managers. The group also commissioned a variety of studies from independent experts, contracted with the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Public Administration to hold workshops on designing and leading trust-evoking organizations, and carried out one survey of parties affected by the Department`s radioactive waste management activities and a second one of DOE employees and contractors.

  18. Greater Confinement Disposal Test at the Nevada Test Site, Final Technology Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickman, P. T.

    1989-01-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal Test (GCDT) was conducted at the Nevada Test Site to demonstrate an alternative method for management of high-specific-activity (HSA) low-level waste (LLW). The GCDT was initially conceived as a method for managing small volumes of highly concentrated tritium wastes, which, due to their environmental mobiilty, are considered unsuitable for routine shallow land disposal. Later, the scope of the GCDT was increased to address a variety of other "problem" HSA wastes including isotope sources and thermal generating wastes. The basic design for the GCDT evolved from a series of studies and assessments. Operational design objectives were to (1) emplace the wastes at a depth sufficient to minimize or eliminate routine environmental transport mechanisms and instrusion scenarios and (2) provide sufficient protection for operations personnel in the handling of HSA sources. To achieve both objectives, a large diameter borehole was selected. The GCDT consisted of a borehole 3 meters (10 feet) in diameter and 36 meters (120 feet) deep, surrounded by nine monitoring holes at varying radii. The GCDT was instrumented for the measurement of temperature, moisture, and soil-gas content. Over one million curies of HSA LLW were emplaced in GCDT. This report reviews the development of the GCDT project and presents analyses of data collected.

  19. Mars Rover Curriculum: Teacher Self Reporting of Increased Frequency and Confidence in their Science and Language Arts Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bering, E. A.; Carlson, C.; Nieser, K.; Slagle, E.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Houston is in the process of developing a flexible program that offers children an in-depth educational experience culminating in the design and construction of their own model Mars rover. The program is called the Mars Rover Model Celebration (MRC). It focuses on students, teachers and parents in grades 3-8. Students design and build a model of a Mars rover to carry out a student selected science mission on the surface of Mars. A total of 65 Mars Rover teachers from the 2012-2013 cohort were invited to complete the Mars Rover Teacher Evaluation Survey. The survey was administered online and could be taken at the convenience of the participant. In total, 29 teachers participated in the survey. Teachers were asked to rate their current level of confidence in their ability to teach specific topics within the Earth and Life Science realms, as well as their confidence in their ability to implement teaching strategies with their students. In addition, they were asked to rate the degree to which they felt their confidence increased in the past year as a result of their participation in the MRC program. The majority of teachers (81-90%) felt somewhat to very confident in their ability to effectively teach concepts related to earth and life sciences to their students. In addition, many of the teachers felt that their confidence in teaching these concepts increased somewhat to quite a bit as a result of their participation in the MRC program (54-88%). The most striking increase in this area was the reported 48% of teachers who felt their confidence in teaching 'Earth and the solar system and universe' increased 'Quite a bit' as a result of their participation in the MRC program. The vast majority of teachers (86-100%) felt somewhat to very confident in their ability to effectively implement all of the listed teaching strategies. In addition, the vast majority reported believing that their confidence increased somewhat to quite a bit as a result of their

  20. Student self-reported communication skills, knowledge and confidence across standardised patient, virtual and traditional clinical learning environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quail, Michelle; Brundage, Shelley B; Spitalnick, Josh; Allen, Peter J; Beilby, Janet

    2016-02-27

    Advanced communication skills are vital for allied health professionals, yet students often have limited opportunities in which to develop them. The option of increasing clinical placement hours is unsustainable in a climate of constrained budgets, limited placement availability and increasing student numbers. Consequently, many educators are considering the potentials of alternative training methods, such as simulation. Simulations provide safe, repeatable and standardised learning environments in which students can practice a variety of clinical skills. This study investigated students' self-rated communication skill, knowledge, confidence and empathy across simulated and traditional learning environments. Undergraduate speech pathology students were randomly allocated to one of three communication partners with whom they engaged conversationally for up to 30 min: a patient in a nursing home (n = 21); an elderly trained patient actor (n = 22); or a virtual patient (n = 19). One week prior to, and again following the conversational interaction, participants completed measures of self-reported communication skill, knowledge and confidence (developed by the authors based on the Four Habit Coding Scheme), as well as the Jefferson Scale of Empathy - Health Professionals (student version). All three groups reported significantly higher communication knowledge, skills and confidence post-placement (Median d = .58), while the degree of change did not vary as a function of group membership (Median η (2)  communication skill, knowledge and confidence, though not empathy, following a brief placement in a virtual, standardised or traditional learning environment. The self-reported increases were consistent across the three placement types. It is proposed that the findings from this study provide support for the integration of more sustainable, standardised, virtual patient-based placement models into allied health training programs for the training of

  1. Adrenal Rest Tumor from the Greater Omentum Mimicking Exophytic Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC): A Case Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Hyung Jo; Kim, Seong Hoon; Shin, Hyun Woong [Daegu Fatima Hospital, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Park, Jae Bok [Catholic University of Daegu, Gyeongsan (Korea, Republic of); Jo, Hyun Chul; Son, Mi Young; Kim, Tae Bong [Daegu Veterans Hospital, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2010-02-15

    Adrenal rest tumors are aberrant adrenocortical tissue which has been most commonly described in abdominal and pelvic sites. To our knowledge, there has been no previous description of an adrenal rest tumor of the greater omentum. We present a case of a pathologically confirmed adrenal rest tumor of the greater omentum in a 76-year- old man

  2. Nesting ecology of greater white-fronted geese on the Nowitna National Wildlife Refuge: 1988 progress report

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This report covers the nesting ecology of greater white-fronted geese on the Nowitna National Wildlife Refuge. Aerial surveys to document spring phenology and...

  3. Local Authorities' Experiences of Improving Parental Confidence in the Special Educational Needs Process. LGA Research Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Richard; Macleod, Shona; Jeffes, Jennifer; Atkinson, Mary

    2010-01-01

    How can we help parents to understand the special educational needs (SEN) process? What sort of information and support do they need? This report details the results of research with SEN officers (or their equivalent) in 26 local authorities, covering: (1) the referral process; (2) early identification and intervention; (3) local authority and…

  4. A dissociation in judgements of confidence in people with dandruff based on self-reports compared to reports from other observers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godbehere, A; McDonald, L; Baines, F; Sutherland, C A M; Andrews, T J

    2017-08-01

    It is not clear how well evaluations made by other people correspond with self-evaluations of esteem or confidence. To address this question, we compared measurements of confidence in participants with and without dandruff. Participants with dandruff were significantly different from healthy control participants on a quality of life measure of scalp dermatitis, but not on self-evaluations of esteem or confidence. To determine whether there were differences in the evaluation of confidence by others, both groups of participants were videoed while they prepared for or gave a presentation in an interview scenario. Raters, who were unfamiliar with the identities of the participants, evaluated confidence from the muted videos. In contrast to their self-evaluations, male participants with dandruff were rated as having lower confidence compared to participants who reported a healthy scalp. These findings reveal a difference between explicit and implicit measures of self-esteem in men compared to women with dandruff. © 2017 Society of Cosmetic Scientists and the Société Française de Cosmétologie.

  5. Technical Report: Benchmarking for Quasispecies Abundance Inference with Confidence Intervals from Metagenomic Sequence Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLoughlin, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-01-22

    The software application “MetaQuant” was developed by our group at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). It is designed to profile microbial populations in a sample using data from whole-genome shotgun (WGS) metagenomic DNA sequencing. Several other metagenomic profiling applications have been described in the literature. We ran a series of benchmark tests to compare the performance of MetaQuant against that of a few existing profiling tools, using real and simulated sequence datasets. This report describes our benchmarking procedure and results.

  6. GPs' confidence in caring for their patients on the autism spectrum: an online self-report study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unigwe, Silvana; Buckley, Carole; Crane, Laura; Kenny, Lorcan; Remington, Anna; Pellicano, Elizabeth

    2017-06-01

    In the UK, GPs play a key role in the identification and management of children, young people, and adults on the autism spectrum, but there is a paucity of research on GPs' perceptions of working with these patients. To understand GPs' perceived self-efficacy in identifying and managing their patients on the autism spectrum, and the factors affecting this. An online self-report survey was developed for completion by GPs across the UK. A total of 304 GPs in the UK took part. The survey collected responses on participants' background, training, and experience, both as a GP and with regard to autism, and included a 22-item knowledge of autism questionnaire, a 14-item self-efficacy scale targeting GPs' perceived confidence in identifying and managing their autistic patients, and an open question eliciting participants' experiences of working with autistic people. In total, 39.5% (n = 120) of GP participants reported never having received formal training in autism. Despite demonstrating good knowledge of its key features, participants reported limited confidence in their abilities to identify and manage autistic patients, with many citing a number of barriers that overwhelmingly focused on perceived failings of the current healthcare system (such as a lack of clarity around referral pathways). There is an urgent need for improved local specialist service provision alongside clearer referral pathways for diagnosis to improve both GPs' confidence in caring for their autistic patients and the healthcare experiences of autistic patients and their families. Local clinical commissioning groups are best served to assist GPs in ensuring that they can reliably detect the condition and make appropriate provisions for support. © British Journal of General Practice 2017.

  7. Case report 358: Desmoid tumor of the greater wing of the right sphenoid bone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crisi, G.; Calo, M.; Mauri, C.

    1986-03-01

    In summary, a case has been presented of a 26-year-old man who on admission showed a mild right proptosis and swelling of the right temple. Roentgenograms of the skull demonstrated loss of the right innominate line. CT studies after contrast demonstrated a sharply-demarcated, destructive area of the right greater sphenoid wing with an enhancing, spindle-shaped, soft tissue mass observed around the bony defect. Increased uptake was demonstrated on a radionuclide scan. The lesion was surgically removed and proved to be a desmoid. (orig./SHA).

  8. How report cards on physicians, physician groups, and hospitals can have greater impact on consumer choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinaiko, Anna D; Eastman, Diana; Rosenthal, Meredith B

    2012-03-01

    Public report cards with quality and cost information on physicians, physician groups, and hospital providers have proliferated in recent years. However, many of these report cards are difficult for consumers to interpret and have had little impact on the provider choices consumers are making. To gain a more focused understanding of why these reports cards have not been more successful and what improvements could be made, we interviewed experts and surveyed registrants at the March 2011 AHRQ National Summit on Public Reporting for Consumers in Health Care. We found broad agreement that public reporting has been disconnected from consumer decisions about providers because of weaknesses in report card content, design, and accessibility. Policy makers have an opportunity to change the landscape of public reporting by taking advantage of advances in measurement, data collection, and information technology to deliver a more consumer-centered report card. Overcoming the constraint of limited public funding, and achieving the acceptance of providers, is critical to realizing future success.

  9. Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste Transportation Strategy report and institutional plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmitt, R.C.; Tyacke, M.J.

    1995-01-01

    This document contains two parts. Part I, Greater-Than-Class-C Low-Level Radioactive Waste Transportation Strategy, addresses the requirements, responsibilities, and strategy to transport and receive these wastes. The strategy covers (a) transportation packaging, which includes shipping casks and waste containers; (b) transportation operations relating to the five facilities involved in transportation, i.e., waste originator, interim storage, dedicated storage, treatment, and disposal; (c) system safety and risk analysis; (d) routes; (e) emergency preparedness and response; and (o safeguards and security. A summary of strategic actions is provided at the conclusion of Part 1. Part II, Institutional Plan for Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste Packaging and Transportation, addresses the assumptions, requirements, and institutional plan elements and actions. As documented in the Strategy and Institutional Plan, the most challenging issues facing the GTCC LLW Program shipping campaign are institutional issues closely related to the strategy. How the Program addresses those issues and demonstrates to the states, local governments, and private citizens that the shipments can and will be made safely will strongly affect the success or failure of the campaign.

  10. Capillary haemangioma of the greater omentum in a 5-month-old female infant: a case report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chateil, J.F. [Hopital Pellegrin, 33 - Bordeaux (France). Service de Neuro-Radiologie; Unite de Radiopediatrie, Hopital Pellegrin, Bordeaux (France); Saragne-Feuga, C.; Brun, M.; Diard, F. [Hopital Pellegrin, 33 - Bordeaux (France). Service de Neuro-Radiologie; Perel, Y. [Service de Pediatrie A, Hopital Pellegrin, Bordeaux (France); Neuenschwander, S. [Service de Radiologie, Institut Curie, Paris (France); Vergnes, P. [Service de Chirurgie Pediatrique, Hopital Pellegrin, Bordeaux (France)

    2000-12-01

    Capillary haemangiomas are frequent benign tumours in infancy. The authors report a case of capillary haemangioma of the greater omentum, discovered in a child of 5 months of age and studied with US, CT and MRI. The localization of such a lesion in the greater omentum is exceptional. Abdominal US revealed a heterogeneous, multinodular intraperitoneal mass. Doppler study demonstrated hypervascularity of the lesion. CT localized the mass to the greater omentum. The mass was hypodense on the unenhanced scan and enhanced massively after injection. The infant suffered a reaction to contrast medium during the CT. MRI demonstrated a mass which was hypointense on T1-weighted images and hyperintense on T2-weighted images. Laparotomy confirmed the location of the mass within the greater omentum and allowed resection of the tumour. (orig.)

  11. Herbal hepatotoxicity by Greater Celandine (Chelidonium majus): causality assessment of 22 spontaneous reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teschke, Rolf; Glass, Xaver; Schulze, Johannes

    2011-12-01

    Toxic liver injury due to the herb Greater Celandine (GC) (Chelidonium majus L.) has been assumed in patients originating from various European countries and created concern. Based on regulatory and liver unspecific ad hoc causality assessments in 22 spontaneous cases of Germany, causality levels for GC were considered probable in 16 and possible in 6 cases. We now analyzed the data of these 22 cases regarding their causality levels employing the liver specific, standardized, structured and quantitative assessment method of the updated scale of CIOMS (Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences). Causality for GC was found highly probable (n=2), probable (n=6), possible (n=10), unlikely (n=1), and excluded (n=3). Thus, causality could be upgraded in 2 cases to a highly probable causality level, but had to be down graded to excluded, unlikely, or possible causality levels in 3, 1, or 9 cases, respectively. GC hepatotoxicity shows a hepatocellular pattern of liver injury with female gender predominance. On average, age of the patients was 56.4 years, treatment 36.4 days, and latency period until first symptoms and jaundice 29.8 and 35.6 days, respectively. This analysis therefore provides further evidence for the existence of GC hepatotoxicity as a distinct form of herb induced liver injury, but due to poor data quality the causal association between GC use and liver injury is less strong than hitherto assumed. We propose replacement of the regulatory organ unspecific by a liver specific causality assessment method in cases of herb induced liver injury as well as stricter pharmacovigilance strategies towards improvements of data quality. Toxicological studies are now warranted to elucidate the mechanism(s) of human GC hepatotoxicity that represents a European issue. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. College students who have an eveningness preference report lower self-control and greater procrastination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Digdon, Nancy L; Howell, Andrew J

    2008-11-01

    Previous research suggests a possible link between eveningness and general difficulties with self-regulation (e.g., evening types are more likely than other chronotypes to have irregular sleep schedules and social rhythms and use substances). Our study investigated the relationship between eveningness and self-regulation by using two standardized measures of self-regulation: the Self-Control Scale and the Procrastination Scale. We predicted that an eveningness preference would be associated with poorer self-control and greater procrastination than would an intermediate or morningness preference. Participants were 308 psychology students (mean age=19.92 yrs) at a small Canadian college. Students completed the self-regulation questionnaires and Morningness/Eveningness Questionnaire (MEQ) online. The mean MEQ score was 46.69 (SD=8.20), which is intermediate between morningness and eveningness. MEQ scores ranged from definite morningness to definite eveningness, but the dispersion of scores was skewed toward more eveningness. Pearson and partial correlations (controlling for age) were used to assess the relationship between MEQ score and the Self-Control Scale (global score and 5 subscale scores) and Procrastination Scale (global score). All correlations were significant. The magnitude of the effects was medium for all measures except one of the Self-Control subscales, which was small. A multiple regression analysis to predict MEQ score using the Self-Control Scale (global score), Procrastination Scale, and age as predictors indicated the Self-Control Scale was a significant predictor (accounting for 20% of the variance). A multiple regression analysis to predict MEQ scores using the five subscales of the Self-Control Scale and age as predictors showed the subscales for reliability and work ethic were significant predictors (accounting for 33% of the variance). Our study showed a relationship between eveningness and low self-control, but it did not address whether the

  13. Greater Green River Basin production improvement project, Phase 1: Site characterization report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeJarnett, B.B.; Krystinik, L.F.; Mead, R.H.; Poe, S.C.

    1996-05-01

    Several tight, naturally-fractured, gas-productive formations in the Greater Green River Basin (GGRB) in Wyoming have been exploited using conventional vertical well technology. Typically, hydraulic fracture treatments must be performed in completing these wells to increase gas production rates to economic levels. However, with the maturation of horizontal drilling technology hydraulic fracture treatments may not be the most effective method for improving gas production from these tight reservoirs. Two of the most prolific tight gas reservoirs in the Green River Basin, the Frontier and the Mesaverde, are candidates for the application of horizontal well completion technology. The objective of the proposed project is to apply the DOE`s technical concept to the Second Frontier Formation on the western flank of the Rock Springs Uplift. Previous industry attempts to produce in commercial quantities from the Second Frontier Formation have been hampered by lack of understanding of both the in-situ natural fracture system and lack of adequate stimulation treatments. The proposed technical approach involves drilling a vertical characterization well to the Second Frontier Formation at a depth of approximately 16,000 ft. from a site located about 18 miles northwest of Rock Springs, Wyoming. Logging, coring, and well testing information from the vertical well will be used to design a hydraulic fracturing treatment and to assess the resulting production performance. Data from the vertical drilling phase will be used to design a 2,500 to 3,000-ft lateral wellbore which will be kicked off from the vertical hole and extend into the blanket marine sandstone bench of the Second Frontier Formation. The trajectory of this wellbore will be designed to intersect the maximum number of natural fractures to maximize production rates. Production testing of the resulting completion will provide an assessment of reserve potential related to horizontal lateral completions.

  14. Self-reported posttraumatic growth predicts greater subsequent posttraumatic stress amidst war and terrorism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zalta, Alyson K; Gerhart, James; Hall, Brian J; Rajan, Kumar B; Vechiu, Catalina; Canetti, Daphna; Hobfoll, Stevan E

    2017-03-01

    This study tested three alternative explanations for research indicating a positive, but heterogeneous relationship between self-reported posttraumatic growth (PTG) and posttraumatic stress symptoms (PSS): (a) the third-variable hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is a spurious one driven by positive relationships with resource loss, (b) the growth over time hypothesis that the relationship between PTG and PSS is initially a positive one, but becomes negative over time, and (c) the moderator hypothesis that resource loss moderates the relationship between PTG and PSS such that PTG is associated with lower levels of PSS as loss increases. A nationally representative sample (N = 1622) of Israelis was assessed at three time points during a period of ongoing violence. PTG, resource loss, and the interaction between PTG and loss were examined as lagged predictors of PSS to test the proposed hypotheses. Results were inconsistent with all three hypotheses, showing that PTG positively predicted subsequent PSS when accounting for main and interactive effects of loss. Our results suggest that self-reported PTG is a meaningful but counterintuitive predictor of poorer mental health following trauma.

  15. Trypanosoma evansi in dromedary camel: with a case report of zoonosis in greater Cairo, Egypt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haridy, Fouad M; El-Metwally, Mohamed Tolba; Khalil, Hazem H M; Morsy, Tosson A

    2011-04-01

    Trypanosoma evansi (Steel, 1885) Balbiani, is the cause of trypanosomiasis (Surra) which multiples in the blood and body fluids. The incubation period varies from 7-15 days. The mortality rate was up to 20% and fatality rate may reach up to 100% in untreated camels. Three hundred randomly selected camels were 200 males 4-6 years old and 100 females 10-15 years. They were examined clinically and diagnosed by Giemsa stained blood smear, anti- trypanosomiasis-antibodies by ELISA and urine Thymol turbidity test for natural infection with T. evani (Surra). The results showed that camels were naturally infected with T. evansi as indicated by stained blood film examination and/or ELISA. Infection in males was 6.0% (stained blood smears), 8.0% (ELISA) and 5.0% (urine thymol turbidity test). In females the infection rate was 9.0%, 24.0% and 12% respectively. By correlation with suggestive clinical manifestations, ELISA proved to be more sensitive and specific (13.3%) than stained blood films (10.0%) and urine Thymol turbidity test (7.3%). Regarding humans, one out of 30 was positive as indicated by ELISA and stained blood smear but was negative by urine thymol turbidity test. The human case was successfully treated as indicated clinically, parasitologically and serologically. This is the first reported Egyptian human case of trypanosomiasis evansi, a neglected zoonosis.

  16. Categorical Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-07-01

    MRC/APU, 15 Chaucer Road, Cambridge, CB1 1EF, U.K. . r OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH TECHNICAL REPORTS DISTRIBUTION LIST CDR Paul R. Chatelier Physiology...Psychology Unit Medical Research Council Or. Joseph Zeidner 15 Chaucer Road Technical Director Cambridge, CB2 2EF U.S. Army Research Institute ENGLAND 5001

  17. A minimal ingroup advantage in emotion identification confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Steven G; Wilson, John Paul

    2016-12-28

    Emotion expressions convey valuable information about others' internal states and likely behaviours. Accurately identifying expressions is critical for social interactions, but so is perceiver confidence when decoding expressions. Even if a perceiver correctly labels an expression, uncertainty may impair appropriate behavioural responses and create uncomfortable interactions. Past research has found that perceivers report greater confidence when identifying emotions displayed by cultural ingroup members, an effect attributed to greater perceptual skill and familiarity with own-culture than other-culture faces. However, the current research presents novel evidence for an ingroup advantage in emotion decoding confidence across arbitrary group boundaries that hold culture constant. In two experiments using different stimulus sets participants not only labeled minimal ingroup expressions more accurately, but did so with greater confidence. These results offer novel evidence that ingroup advantages in emotion decoding confidence stem partly from social-cognitive processes.

  18. The effect of ankle-foot orthoses on self-reported balance confidence in persons with chronic poststroke hemiplegia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zissimopoulos, Angelika; Fatone, Stefania; Gard, Steven

    2014-04-01

    One intervention often used to address physical impairments post stroke is an ankle-foot orthosis. Ankle-foot orthoses may improve walking speed, stride length, and gait pattern. However, effects on balance, crucial for safe ambulation, are thus far inconclusive. One aspect of balance shown to contribute to functional ability is self-efficacy. Self-efficacy, defined as the belief in one's ability to succeed in particular situations, has been shown to be more strongly associated with activity and participation (as defined by the International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health) than physical performance measures of gait or balance. We investigated whether self-efficacy, or balance confidence when referred to in the context of balance capabilities, is improved with ankle-foot orthosis use. Repeated measures study design. Balance confidence was measured using the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale in 15 persons with chronic poststroke hemiplegia, with and without their regular ankle-foot orthosis. Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale scores were significantly higher (p ≤ 0.01) for the ankle-foot orthosis condition compared to no ankle-foot orthosis. One mechanism by which ankle-foot orthosis use may influence balance is improved balance confidence. Future work should explore the specific mechanisms underlying this improvement in self-efficacy. Clinical relevance Self-efficacy may be an important factor to consider when evaluating functioning post stroke. Rehabilitative interventions that improve balance confidence may help restore participation and overall functioning in pathological populations, particularly in the fall-prone poststroke population. Study results provide evidence for improvements in balance confidence with ankle-foot orthosis use.

  19. Social and institutional evaluation report for Greater-Than-Class C Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, T.L.; Lewis, B.E.; Turner, K.H.; Rozelle, M.A. [Dames and Moore, Denver, CO (United States)

    1993-10-01

    This report identifies and characterizes social and institutional issues that would be relevant to the siting, licensing, construction, closure, and postclosure of a Greater-Than-Class-C low-level radioactive waste (GTCC LLW) disposal facility. A historical perspective of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) and LLW disposal programs is provided as an overview of radioactive waste disposal and to support the recommendations and conclusions in the report. A characterization of each issue is provided to establish the basis for further evaluations. Where applicable, the regulatory requirements of 10 CFR 60 and 61 are incorporated in the issue characterizations. The issues are used to compare surface, intermediate depth, and deep geologic disposal alternatives. The evaluation establishes that social and institutional issues do not significantly discriminate among the disposal alternatives. Recommendations are provided for methods by which the issues could be considered throughout the lifecycle of a GTCC LLW disposal program.

  20. Waste Management Facilities Cost Information report for Greater-Than-Class C and DOE equivalent special case waste

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feizollahi, F.; Shropshire, D.

    1993-07-01

    This Waste Management Facility Cost Information (WMFCI) report for Greater-Than-Class C low-level waste (GTCC LLW) and DOE equivalent special case waste contains preconceptual designs and planning level life-cycle cost (PLCC) estimates for treatment, storage, and disposal facilities needed for management of GTCC LLW and DOE equivalent waste. The report contains information on 16 facilities (referred to as cost modules). These facilities are treatment facility front-end and back-end support functions (administration support, and receiving, preparation, and shipping cost modules); seven treatment concepts (incineration, metal melting, shredding/compaction, solidification, vitrification, metal sizing and decontamination, and wet/air oxidation cost modules); two storage concepts (enclosed vault and silo); disposal facility front-end functions (disposal receiving and inspection cost module); and four disposal concepts (shallow-land, engineered shallow-land, intermediate depth, and deep geological cost modules). Data in this report allow the user to develop PLCC estimates for various waste management options. A procedure to guide the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and its contractor personnel in the use of estimating data is also included in this report.

  1. Research on Relationship of Spatial Visualization and Confidence to Male/Female Mathematics Achievement in Grades 6-8. Final Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fennema, Elizabeth

    Reported are two separate but related longitudinal studies of two variables strongly associated with sex-related differences in mathematics achievement and enrollment, namely spatial visualization and confidence in learning mathematics. First, boys (N=33) and girls (N=36) in grades 6-8 who were discrepant in their spatial and verbal skills were…

  2. Adults with Greater Weight Satisfaction Report More Positive Health Behaviors and Have Better Health Status Regardless of BMI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine E. Blake

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Prior studies suggest that weight satisfaction may preclude changes in behavior that lead to healthier weight among individuals who are overweight or obese. Objective. To gain a better understanding of complex relationships between weight satisfaction, weight-related health behaviors, and health outcomes. Design. Cross-sectional analysis of data from the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study (ACLS. Participants. Large mixed-gender cohort of primarily white, middle-to-upper socioeconomic status (SES adults with baseline examination between 1987 and 2002 (n=19,003. Main Outcome Variables. Weight satisfaction, weight-related health behaviors, chronic health conditions, and clinical health indicators. Statistical Analyses Performed. Chi-square test, t-tests, and linear and multivariate logistic regression. Results. Compared to men, women were more likely to be dieting (32% women; 18% men and had higher weight dissatisfaction. Men and women with greater weight dissatisfaction reported more dieting, yo-yo dieting, and snacking and consuming fewer meals, being less active, and having to eat either more or less than desired to maintain weight regardless of weight status. Those who were overweight or obese and dissatisfied with their weight had the poorest health. Conclusion. Greater satisfaction with one’s weight was associated with positive health behaviors and health outcomes in both men and women and across weight status groups.

  3. Greater Caribbean Energy and Environment Future. Ad hoc working group report, Key Biscayne, Florida, October 26-28, 1980

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thorhaug, A. (ed.)

    1980-01-01

    This report of Workshop I (presented in outline form) by the Greater Caribbean Energy and Environment Foundation begin an intensive focus on the energy problems of the Caribbean. The process by which environmental assessments by tropical experts can be successfully integrated into energy decisions is by: (1) international loan institutions requiring or strongly recommending excellent assessments; (2) engineering awareness of total effects of energy projects; (3) governmental environmental consciousness-raising with regard to natural resource value and potential inadvertent and unnecessary resource losses during energy development; and (4) media participation. Section headings in the outline are: preamble; introduction; research tasks: today and twenty years hence; needed research, demonstration and information dissemination projects to get knowledge about Caribbean energy-environment used; summary; recommendations; generalized conclusions; and background literature. (JGB)

  4. New reports, phylogenetic analysis, and a key to Lactarius Pers. in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem informed by molecular data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward G. Barge

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE, located in the Central Rocky Mountains of western North America, is one of the largest nearly intact temperate-zone ecosystems on Earth. Here, Lactarius is an important component of ectomycorrhizal communities in many habitat types, from low elevation riparian areas to high elevation conifer forests and alpine tundra. Molecular phylogenetic analyses of ITS and RPB2 gene sequences along with detailed morphological examination confirm at least 20 Lactarius species, as well as three varieties, and one unresolved species group in the GYE. Eight taxa are reported from the GYE for the first time, and nearly every major ectomycorrhizal host plant in the GYE appears to have at least one Lactarius species associated with it. Broad intercontinental distributions are suggested for alpine Salix and Betula associates, and for certain subalpine Picea and aspen (Populus spp. associates. Some species appear to be restricted to western North America with Pinus, Pseudotsuga or Abies. The distribution and/or host affinities of others is not clear due in part to ambiguous host assignment, taxonomic problems or the relative rarity with which they have been reported.

  5. Young adult cannabis users report greater propensity for risk-taking only in non-monetary domains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilman, Jodi M; Calderon, Vanessa; Curran, Max T; Evins, A Eden

    2015-02-01

    Though substance use is often associated with elevated risk-taking in real-world scenarios, many risk-taking tasks in experimental psychology using financial gambles fail to find significant differences between individuals with substance use disorders and healthy controls. We assessed whether participants using marijuana would show a greater propensity for risk-taking in distinct domains including, but not limited to, financial risk-taking. In the current study, we assessed risk-taking in young adult (age 18-25) regular marijuana users and in non-using control participants using a domain-specific risk-taking self-report scale (DOSPERT) encompassing five domains of risk-taking (social, financial, recreational, health/safety, and ethical). We also measured behavioral risk-taking using a laboratory monetary risk-taking task. Marijuana users and controls reported significant differences on the social, health/safety, and ethical risk-taking scales, but no differences in the propensity to take recreational or financial risks. Complementing the self-report finding, there were no differences between marijuana users and controls in their performance on the laboratory risk-taking task. These findings suggest that financial risk-taking may be less sensitive than other domains of risk-taking in assessing differences in risky behavior between those who use marijuana and those who do not. In order to more consistently determine whether increased risk-taking is a factor in substance use, it may be necessary to use both monetary risk-taking tasks and complementary assessments of non-monetary-based risk-taking measures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Ecology of Greater Sage-Grouse in the Bi-State Planning Area Final Report, September 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casazza, Michael L.; Overton, Cory T.; Farinha, Melissa A.; Torregrosa, Alicia; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Miller, Michael R.; Sedinger, James S.; Kolada, Eric J.

    2009-01-01

    Conservation efforts for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), hereafter sage-grouse, are underway across the range of this species. Over 70 local working groups have been established and are implementing on-the-ground sage-grouse oriented conservation projects. Early on in this process, the California Department of Fish and Game (CDFG) recognized the need to join in these efforts and received funding from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) under the Candidate Species Conservation Program to help develop a species conservation plan for sage-grouse in the Mono County area. This conservation plan covers portions of Alpine, Mono, and Inyo counties in California and Douglas, Esmeralda, Lyon, and Mineral counties in Nevada. A concurrent effort underway through the Nevada Governor's Sage-grouse Conservation Team established Local Area Working Groups across Nevada and eastern California. The Mono County populations of sage-grouse were encompassed by the Bi-State Local Planning Area, which was comprised of six population management units (PMUs). The state agencies from California (CDFG) and Nevada (Nevada Department of Wildlife; NDOW) responsible for the management of sage-grouse agreed to utilize the process that had begun with the Nevada Governor's Team in order to develop local plans for conservation planning and implementation. Resources from the USFWS were applied to several objectives in support of the development of the Bi-State Local Area Sage-grouse Conservation Plan through a grant to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Objectives included: (1) participate in the development of the Bi-State Conservation Plan, (2) compile and synthesize existing sage-grouse data, (3) document seasonal movements of sage-grouse, (4) identify habitats critical to sage-grouse, (5) determine survival rates and identify causal factors of mortality, (6) determine nest success and brood success of sage-grouse, and (7) identify sage-grouse lek sites. Progress reports

  7. Towards a greater understanding of the illicit tobacco trade in Europe: a review of the PMI funded 'Project Star' report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, Anna B; Rowell, Andy; Gallus, Silvano; Lugo, Alessandra; Joossens, Luk; Sims, Michelle

    2014-05-01

    Following a legal agreement with the European Union (EU), Philip Morris International (PMI) commissions a yearly report ('Project Star', PS) on the European illicit cigarette trade from KPMG, the global accountancy firm. Review of PS 2010 report. Comparison with data from independent sources including a 2010 pan-European survey (N=18,056). Within PS, data covering all 27 EU countries are entered into a model. While the model itself seems appropriate, concerns are identified with the methodologies underlying the data inputs and thus their quality: there is little transparency over methodologies; interview data underestimate legal non-domestic product partly by failing to account for legal cross-border sales; illicit cigarette estimates rely on tobacco industry empty pack surveys which may overestimate illicit; and there is an over-reliance on data supplied by PMI with inadequate external validation. Thus, PMI sales data are validated using PMI smoking prevalence estimates, yet PMI is unable to provide sales (shipment) data for the Greek islands and its prevalence estimates differ grossly from independent data. Consequently, comparisons with independent data suggest PS will tend to overestimate illicit cigarette levels particularly where cross-border shopping is frequent (Austria, Finland, France) and in Western compared with Eastern European countries. The model also provides data on the nature of the illicit cigarette market independent of seizure data suggesting that almost a quarter of the illicit cigarette market in 2010 comprised PMI's own brands compared with just 5% counterfeited PMI brands; a finding hidden in PMI's public representation of the data. PS overestimates illicit cigarette levels in some European countries and suggests PMI's supply chain control is inadequate. Its publication serves the interests of PMI over those of the EU and its member states. PS requires greater transparency, external scrutiny and use of independent data. Published by the BMJ

  8. Report: Changes Needed to Improve Public Confidence in EPA’s Implementation of the Food Quality Protection Act

    Science.gov (United States)

    Report #2006-P-00003, October 19, 2005. EPA allowed public comment periods when developing the Agency’s major FQPA science policy papers, and developed and implemented a public comment policy for all pesticide reregistrations in 2002.

  9. Progress report 1988: predator control to enhance production of Greater Sandhill Cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The nesting population of greater sandhill cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Oregon has declined from 181 pairs in 1986 when predator control began to 137...

  10. Progress report 1989: predator control to enhance the production of Greater Sandhill Cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The nesting population of greater sandhill cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Oregon has declined from 236 pairs in 1971 to 181 pairs in 1986 when predator...

  11. Progress report 1987: predator control to enhance the production of Greater Sandhill Cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The nesting population of greater sandhill cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Oregon has declined from 236 pairs in 1971 to 181 pairs in 1986. Nesting...

  12. Progress Report 1986 : Predator Control to Enhance the Production of Greater Sandhill Cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The nesting population of greater sandhill cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Oregon has declined from 236 pairs in 1971 to 181 pairs in 1986. Nesting...

  13. Progress report 1991: predator control to enhance the production of greater Sandhill Cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The nesting population of greater sandhill cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Oregon had declined from 236 pairs in 1971 to 181 pairs in 1986 when predator...

  14. Progress Report 1990: predator control to enhance the production of Greater Sandhill Cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The nesting population of greater sandhill cranes on Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, Oregon had declined from 236 pairs in 1971 to 181 pairs in 1986 when predator...

  15. Self-reported maternal parenting style and confidence and infant temperament in a multi-ethnic community: results from the Born in Bradford cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prady, Stephanie L; Kiernan, Kathleen; Fairley, Lesley; Wilson, Sarah; Wright, John

    2014-03-01

    Ethnic minority children in the United Kingdom often experience health disadvantage. Parenting influences children's current and future health, but little is known about whether parenting behaviours and mother's perception of her infant vary by ethnicity. Using the Born in Bradford (BiB) birth cohort, which is located in an ethnically diverse and economically deprived UK city, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of mother's self-reported parenting confidence, self-efficacy, hostility and warmth, and infant temperament at six months of age. We examined responses from women of Pakistani (N = 554) and White British (N = 439) origin. Pakistani mothers reported feeling more confident about their abilities as a parent. Significantly fewer Pakistani women adopted a hostile approach to parenting, an effect that was attenuated after adjustment for socioeconomic status and mental health. Overall, women with more self-efficacious, warm and less hostile parenting styles reported significantly fewer problems with their infant's temperaments. Of women with higher self-efficacy parenting styles, Pakistani mothers were significantly more likely than White British mothers to report more problematic infant temperaments, although absolute differences were small. It is unlikely that the ethnic variation seen in children's cognitive and behavioural outcomes in childhood is attributable to differences in parenting or infant characteristics reported at six months.

  16. Case Report: Anteromedial temporosphenoidal encephalocele with a clinically silent lateral bony defect in the greater wing of the sphenoid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pandey Anoop

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Anteromedial temporosphenoidal encephalocele is the least common type of temporal encephalocele. It commonly presents with spontaneous cerebrospinal fluid rhinorrhea in adults. This article presents the CT cisternography and MRI findings of one such case, which also had an associated clinically silent defect in the greater wing of the sphenoid on the same side.

  17. Survey mode matters: adults' self-reported statistical confidence, ability to obtain health information, and perceptions of patient-health-care provider communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Lorraine S; Chisolm, Deena J; Abdel-Rasoul, Mahmoud; DeVoe, Jennifer E

    2013-08-01

    This study examined adults' self-reported understanding and formatting preferences of medical statistics, confidence in self-care and ability to obtain health advice or information, and perceptions of patient-health-care provider communication measured through dual survey modes (random digital dial and mail). Even while controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, significant differences in regard to adults' responses to survey variables emerged as a function of survey mode. While the analyses do not allow us to pinpoint the underlying causes of the differences observed, they do suggest that mode of administration should be carefully adjusted for and considered.

  18. Embedding academic-professional collaborations that build student confidence for essay writing: Student perceptions and quality outcomes. A Practice Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliey Beckman

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Although the ability for effective written communication is an essential graduate attribute, there is misalignment of student perceptions of expected writing styles and levels between secondary and tertiary education.  This problem may be compounded by an apparent dearth of hands-on writing and related learning modalities for the vast majority of transiting students.  This may be due to a range of interacting factors, including the increased numbers and concomitant diversity of students entering higher education, a reluctance among academics to hand over teaching to professional staff, and a lack of opportunities to establish collaborations between academics and co-curricular professions, namely library and learning skills professionals. This paper reports on the development, implementation and outcomes of a collaboration among these groups on an essay writing intervention for commencing students in a very large enrolment first year science subject.

  19. Complicated sternal dehiscence treated with the strasbourg thoracic osteosyntheses system (STRATOS and the transposition of greater omentum: a case report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Casablanca Giuseppe

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Sternal dehiscence is a serious complication after cardiac surgery. Sternal refixation, performed by simple rewiring or techniqual modification of rewiring as described by Robicsek, can fail, overall when the bone quality is poor or the sternum is completely destroyed. The sternal closure systems, consisting of plates, screws or rib clips and titanium bars, have been recently introduced to treat the complicated sternal dehiscence. We describe for the first time the use of the Strasbourg Thoracic Osteosyntheses System (STRATOS and the greater omentum, to treat a complicated sternal dehiscence, causing chest pain and respiratory failure.

  20. The Model Confidence Set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Nason, James M.

    The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of models. A MCS is a set of models that is constructed such that it will contain the best model with a given level of confidence. The MCS is in this sense analogous to a confidence interval for a parameter. The M...

  1. Increasing Mobility Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Español In Your Area NPF Shop Increasing Mobility Confidence To increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Make Text Smaller ... It might seem counterintuitive, but to increase your confidence moving, you have to move! Build physical activity ...

  2. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...

  3. National study of parental confidence in general practitioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freed, Gary L; Spike, Neil; O'Hara, Jonathan; Hiscock, Harriet; Rhodes, Anthea L

    2017-09-03

    To assess a national sample of Australian parental confidence in general practitioner (GP) care for illness and injury for their children. Cross-sectional, internet-based survey of a national, representative sample of parents of children birth - 17 years in Australia was used. Purposeful recruitment was used to achieve a national, representative sample of 2100 Australian parents, reflective of demographic and geographic distribution based on census data. Parents were asked to indicate their degree of confidence in a GP to handle medical problems as well as their preference for, and use of, paediatric speciality care for their children. Fewer than half of parents (44%) reported that they were completely confident in a GP to provide general care as defined as 'can handle almost all general health issues for my child'. A slightly greater proportion of parents (56%) were completely confident in a GP to provide care for minor injuries, defined as injuries not requiring an X-ray. Greater confidence in general care was seen among parents >40 years of age and those whose GP is always bulk billed. Parental confidence in GPs is an important issue. Our findings that fewer than half of parents are completely confident in their GP to provide general care to their child may be an influencing factor on current health-care utilisation trends. The potential implications of low parental confidence in GPs are greater numbers of emergency department presentations for children with lower urgency conditions and increased referrals of children for specialty care. © 2017 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  4. EnergyWorks Final Report: A Better Buildings Neighborhood Program in the Five-County Greater Philadelphia Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gajewski, Katherine [City of Philadelphia

    2014-03-05

    This report covers the grant performance period of July 1, 2010-September 30, 2013 and discusses of the program design, outcomes and best practices as they relate to the following six areas: 1. Institutional Design and Business Model; 2. Program Design and Customer Experience; 3. Driving Demand; 4. Workforce Development; 5. Financing and Incentives; 6. Data and Evaluation.

  5. Do older people with visual impairment and living alone in a rural developing country report greater difficulty in managing stairs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hairi, Noran N; Bulgiba, Awang; Peramalah, Devi; Mudla, Izzuna

    2013-01-01

    Managing stairs is a challenging activity of daily living (ADL) for older people. This study aims to examine the association between visual impairment and difficulty in managing stairs among older people living alone and those living with others. A population-based cross sectional study was conducted in rural Malaysia from 2007 till 2008. Seven hundred and sixty five older people aged 60 years and over underwent eye examination for visual impairment. Visual acuity criteria were used to define visual impairment. Presenting visual acuity was assessed using a standard metric Snellen Chart of E type. Difficulty in managing stairs was measured according to a question drawn from the Barthel Index which asks "do you need help in climbing stairs". Overall, the prevalence of difficulty in managing stairs among older people in our population was 135 (18.3%, 95% CI 15.7-21.2). After adjusting for important confounders the odds ratio (OR) for visual impairment and difficulty in managing stairs among older people living alone was 5.04 (95% CI 2.27, 10.62). Among older people living with others, the adjusted OR for visual impairment and difficulty in managing stairs was 3.10 (95% CI 1.52, 6.80). In a sample of older people aged 60 years and over, those living alone with visual impairment had greater difficulty in managing stairs than those living with others. Identification of these groups of older people is useful for targeting interventions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Natural Recharge to the Unconfined Aquifer System on the Hanford Site from the Greater Cold Creek Watershed: Progress Report 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waichler, Scott R.; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Coleman, Andre M.

    2004-09-14

    Movement of contaminants in groundwater at the Hanford Site is heavily dependent on recharge to the unconfined aquifer. As the effects of past artificial discharges dissipate, the water table is expected to return to more natural conditions, and natural recharge will become the driving force when evaluating future groundwater flow conditions and related contaminant transport. Previous work on the relationship of natural recharge to groundwater movement at the Hanford Site has focused on direct recharge from infiltrating rainfall and snowmelt within the area represented by the Sitewide Groundwater Model (SGM) domain. However, part of the groundwater recharge at Hanford is provided by flow from Greater Cold Creek watershed (GCC), a large drainage area on the western boundary of the Hanford Site that includes Cold Creek Valley, Dry Creek Valley, and the Hanford side of Rattlesnake Mountain. This study was undertaken to estimate the recharge from GCC, which is believed to enter the unconfined aquifer as both infiltrating streamflow and shallow subsurface flow. To estimate recharge, the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM) was used to simulate a detailed water balance of GCC from 1956 to 2001 at a spatial resolution of 200~m and a temporal resolution of one hour. For estimating natural recharge to Hanford from watersheds along its western and southwestern boundaries, the most important aspects that need to be considered are 1)~distribution and relative magnitude of precipitation and evapotranspiration over the watershed, 2)~streamflow generation at upper elevations and infiltration at lower elevations during rare runoff events, and 3)~permeability of the basalt bedrock surface underlying the soil mantle.

  7. Strengthening Public Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlihy, John J.

    Board members and administrators can build public confidence in their schools by taking every opportunity to communicate positive attitudes about the people in the schools. As leaders, they have the responsibility to use people power to promote the schools. If school employees feel good about their jobs, they will build confidence within the…

  8. Trust vs. Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    defined. Although there are many different definitions of trust, our definition (Adams and Webb, 2003) is as follows: Trust is a psychological state...Judgments: Experiments on the Time to Determine Confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology : Human Perception and Performance, 24(3), 929-945. BARANSKI...PETRUSIC, W. (2001). Testing Architectures of the Decision-Confidence Relation. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology , 55(3): 195-206. PETRUSIC, W

  9. Assessing public speaking fear with the short form of the Personal Report of Confidence as a Speaker scale: confirmatory factor analyses among a French-speaking community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heeren, Alexandre; Ceschi, Grazia; Valentiner, David P; Dethier, Vincent; Philippot, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and structural validity of the French version of the 12-item version of the Personal Report of Confidence as Speaker (PRCS), one of the most promising measurements of public speaking fear. A total of 611 French-speaking volunteers were administered the French versions of the short PRCS, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale, as well as the Trait version of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory-II, which assess the level of anxious and depressive symptoms, respectively. Regarding its structural validity, confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single-factor solution, as implied by the original version. Good scale reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.86) was observed. The item discrimination analysis suggested that all the items contribute to the overall scale score reliability. The French version of the short PRCS showed significant correlations with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = 0.522), the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale (r = 0.414), the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (r = 0.516), and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (r = 0.361). The French version of the short PRCS is a reliable and valid measure for the evaluation of the fear of public speaking among a French-speaking sample. These findings have critical consequences for the measurement of psychological and pharmacological treatment effectiveness in public speaking fear among a French-speaking sample.

  10. Yoga Meditation Practitioners Exhibit Greater Gray Matter Volume and Fewer Reported Cognitive Failures: Results of a Preliminary Voxel-Based Morphometric Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett Froeliger

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Hatha yoga techniques, including physical postures (asanas, breathing exercises (pranayama, and meditation, involve the practice of mindfulness. In turn, yoga meditation practices may induce the state of mindfulness, which, when evoked recurrently through repeated practice, may accrue into trait or dispositional mindfulness. Putatively, these changes may be mediated by experience-dependent neuroplastic changes. Though prior studies have identified differences in gray matter volume (GMV between long-term mindfulness practitioners and controls, no studies to date have reported on whether yoga meditation is associated with GMV differences. The present study investigated GMV differences between yoga meditation practitioners (YMP and a matched control group (CG. The YMP group exhibited greater GM volume in frontal, limbic, temporal, occipital, and cerebellar regions; whereas the CG had no greater regional greater GMV. In addition, the YMP group reported significantly fewer cognitive failures on the Cognitive Failures Questionnaire (CFQ, the magnitude of which was positively correlated with GMV in numerous regions identified in the primary analysis. Lastly, GMV was positively correlated with the duration of yoga practice. Results from this preliminary study suggest that hatha yoga practice may be associated with the promotion of neuroplastic changes in executive brain systems, which may confer therapeutic benefits that accrue with repeated practice.

  11. Assessing public speaking fear with the short form of the Personal Report of Confidence as a Speaker scale: confirmatory factor analyses among a French-speaking community sample

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heeren A

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Alexandre Heeren,1,2 Grazia Ceschi,3 David P Valentiner,4 Vincent Dethier,1 Pierre Philippot11Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; 2National Fund for Scientific Research, Brussels, Belgium; 3Department of Psychology, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland; 4Department of Psychology, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL, USABackground: The main aim of this study was to assess the reliability and structural validity of the French version of the 12-item version of the Personal Report of Confidence as Speaker (PRCS, one of the most promising measurements of public speaking fear.Methods: A total of 611 French-speaking volunteers were administered the French versions of the short PRCS, the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale, as well as the Trait version of the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Beck Depression Inventory-II, which assess the level of anxious and depressive symptoms, respectively.Results: Regarding its structural validity, confirmatory factor analyses indicated a single-factor solution, as implied by the original version. Good scale reliability (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.86 was observed. The item discrimination analysis suggested that all the items contribute to the overall scale score reliability. The French version of the short PRCS showed significant correlations with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = 0.522, the Fear of Negative Evaluation scale (r = 0.414, the Spielberger State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (r = 0.516, and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (r = 0.361.Conclusion: The French version of the short PRCS is a reliable and valid measure for the evaluation of the fear of public speaking among a French-speaking sample. These findings have critical consequences for the measurement of psychological and pharmacological treatment effectiveness in public speaking fear among a French-speaking sample.Keywords: social phobia, public speaking, confirmatory

  12. Multidimensional confidence regions for pareto, exponential, and normal distributions

    OpenAIRE

    Lennartz, Jens

    2017-01-01

    The two classical approaches in estimation theory are point estimation and confidence interval estimation. A confidence interval contains the unknown parameter of interest of a parametric family of distributions with a probability greater than or equal to a certain value, called confidence coefficient or confidence level. If we deal with multiparametric families of distributions, we are interested in simultaneously estimating the parameter vector by determining a multidimensional confidence r...

  13. The Confidence Trick

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve Keen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  14. The Confidence Trick

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    This article reflects on the role that confidence plays in recovery from a financial crisis.The author reflects on lessons from the past – specifically The Great Crash of 1929 and on thework of economists Keynes and Fisher to apply to our current economic woes.The role of overconfidence in our current crisis is also examined.

  15. Confidence in Coastal Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.

    2013-01-01

    This thesis answers the question "How can we show and improve our confidence in coastal forecasts?", by providing four examples of common coastal forecasts. The first example shows how to improve the estimate of the one in ten thousand year storm-surge level. The three dimensional reconstruction,

  16. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…

  17. Raising Confident Kids

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... new skill and milestone, kids can develop increasing confidence. Parents can help by giving kids lots of opportunities to practice and master their skills, letting kids make mistakes and being there to boost their spirits so they keep trying. Respond with ...

  18. Resolving the Confidence Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apter, Terri

    2006-01-01

    As children approach adolescence, they often experience confusion and uncertainty as they attempt to appear more grown up than they really feel. Research on both girls and boys has documented that the buoyant self-confidence of younger children often gives way to self-consciousness as young adolescents become aware of the complexity and difficulty…

  19. Business Confidence Survey 2000

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guo Yan

    2009-01-01

    @@ In order to gain a better understanding about the depth and breadth of its effect on European companies'businesses,the new strategies they are adopting to cope with the crisis,and how their attitudes to towards China-including long-term plans-have changed in its aftermath,the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China today launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey,which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Beijing on June 30,2009.Drawing on the responses of more than 300 European companies active in China.the 2009 Survey highlights a European business community that remains bullish in China in most sectors and read to back up that confidence with continued investment in the local economy provided that Chinese government is committed to creating a more free,fair and competitive market.

  20. Varieties of Confidence Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousineau, Denis

    2017-01-01

    Error bars are useful to understand data and their interrelations. Here, it is shown that confidence intervals of the mean (CI M s) can be adjusted based on whether the objective is to highlight differences between measures or not and based on the experimental design (within- or between-group designs). Confidence intervals (CIs) can also be adjusted to take into account the sampling mechanisms and the population size (if not infinite). Names are proposed to distinguish the various types of CIs and the assumptions underlying them, and how to assess their validity is explained. The various CIs presented here are easily obtained from a succession of multiplicative adjustments to the basic (unadjusted) CI width. All summary results should present a measure of precision, such as CIs, as this information is complementary to effect sizes.

  1. First report of a mixed infection of Trichinella nelsoni and Trichinella T8 in a leopard (Panthera pardus from the Greater Kruger National Park, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis J. La Grange

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available At least three Trichinella species, namely Trichinella nelsoni, Trichinella britovi and Trichinella zimbabwensis, and one genotype (Trichinella T8, have been isolated from sylvatic carnivores on the African continent. With the exception of T. britovi, the other species are known to circulate in wildlife of the Kruger National Park (KNP, South Africa, and KNP neighbouring game reserves (collectively known as the greater KNP area. Lions (Panthera leo and spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta appear to be the most important reservoirs of T. nelsoni and Trichinella T8 in the KNP and surrounding areas. Interspecies predation between lions and hyenas has been implicated as a primary mode of maintaining the life cycles of these two Trichinella species. This is the first report of a mixed natural infection of T. nelsoni and Trichinella T8 in a leopard (Panthera pardus from South Africa. Trichinella muscle larvae were identified to species level by multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR. Probable sources of infection, based on the known dietary preference and prey species’ range of leopards, are also discussed. The described occurrence of Trichinella species in a leopard from the greater KNP area raises the question of possible sources of infection for this predator species.

  2. First report of a mixed infection of Trichinella nelsoni and Trichinella T8 in a leopard (Panthera pardus) from the Greater Kruger National Park, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Grange, Louis J; Reininghaus, Björn; Mukaratirwa, Samson

    2014-11-20

    At least three Trichinella species, namely Trichinella nelsoni, Trichinella britovi and Trichinella zimbabwensis, and one genotype (Trichinella T8), have been isolated from sylvatic carnivores on the African continent. With the exception of T. britovi, the other species are known to circulate in wildlife of the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, and KNP neighbouring game reserves (collectively known as the greater KNP area). Lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) appear to be the most important reservoirs of T. nelsoni and Trichinella T8 in the KNP and surrounding areas. Interspecies predation between lions and hyenas has been implicated as a primary mode of maintaining the life cycles of these two Trichinella species. This is the first report of a mixed natural infection of T. nelsoni and Trichinella T8 in a leopard (Panthera pardus) from South Africa. Trichinella muscle larvae were identified to species level by multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Probable sources of infection, based on the known dietary preference and prey species' range of leopards, are also discussed. The described occurrence of Trichinella species in a leopard from the greater KNP area raises the question of possible sources of infection for this predator species.

  3. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  4. Interrelation of economic confidence with other types of confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Бонецький, Орест Олегович

    2013-01-01

    The paper gives the object and the subject of the study, which are used as a criterion allowing to separate the economic confidence from other types of confidence. The terms describing the psychological and sociological confidence are proposed. It was found that the economic confidence is interrelated with psychological confidence by motivation and advertising, sociological – by the results of activity of public organizations, state regulation of the economy. On the example of information-com...

  5. A model for developing disability confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Sally; Cancelliere, Sara

    2017-05-15

    Many clinicians, educators, and employers lack disability confidence which can affect their interactions with, and inclusion of people with disabilities. Our objective was to explore how disability confidence developed among youth who volunteered with children who have a disability. We conducted 30 in-depth interviews (16 without a disability, 14 with disabilities), with youth aged 15-25. We analyzed our data using an interpretive, qualitative, thematic approach. We identified four main themes that led to the progression of disability confidence including: (1) "disability discomfort," referring to lacking knowledge about disability and experiencing unease around people with disabilities; (2) "reaching beyond comfort zone" where participants increased their understanding of disability and became sensitized to difference; (3) "broadened perspectives" where youth gained exposure to people with disabilities and challenged common misperceptions and stereotypes; and (4) "disability confidence" which includes having knowledge of people with disabilities, inclusive, and positive attitudes towards them. Volunteering is one way that can help to develop disability confidence. Youth with and without disabilities both reported a similar process of developing disability confidence; however, there were nuances between the two groups. Implications for Rehabilitation The development of disability confidence is important for enhancing the social inclusion of people with disabilities. Volunteering with people who have a disability, or a disability different from their own, can help to develop disability confidence which involves positive attitudes, empathy, and appropriate communication skills. Clinicians, educators, and employers should consider promoting working with disabled people through such avenues as volunteering or service learning to gain disability confidence.

  6. Simulation integration with confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  7. Towards a greater understanding of the illicit tobacco trade in Europe: a review of the PMI funded ‘Project Star’ report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmore, Anna B; Rowell, Andy; Gallus, Silvano; Lugo, Alessandra; Joossens, Luk; Sims, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Background Following a legal agreement with the European Union (EU), Philip Morris International (PMI) commissions a yearly report (‘Project Star’, PS) on the European illicit cigarette trade from KPMG, the global accountancy firm. Methods Review of PS 2010 report. Comparison with data from independent sources including a 2010 pan-European survey (N=18 056). Findings Within PS, data covering all 27 EU countries are entered into a model. While the model itself seems appropriate, concerns are identified with the methodologies underlying the data inputs and thus their quality: there is little transparency over methodologies; interview data underestimate legal non-domestic product partly by failing to account for legal cross-border sales; illicit cigarette estimates rely on tobacco industry empty pack surveys which may overestimate illicit; and there is an over-reliance on data supplied by PMI with inadequate external validation. Thus, PMI sales data are validated using PMI smoking prevalence estimates, yet PMI is unable to provide sales (shipment) data for the Greek islands and its prevalence estimates differ grossly from independent data. Consequently, comparisons with independent data suggest PS will tend to overestimate illicit cigarette levels particularly where cross-border shopping is frequent (Austria, Finland, France) and in Western compared with Eastern European countries. The model also provides data on the nature of the illicit cigarette market independent of seizure data suggesting that almost a quarter of the illicit cigarette market in 2010 comprised PMI's own brands compared with just 5% counterfeited PMI brands; a finding hidden in PMI's public representation of the data. Conclusions PS overestimates illicit cigarette levels in some European countries and suggests PMI's supply chain control is inadequate. Its publication serves the interests of PMI over those of the EU and its member states. PS requires greater transparency, external scrutiny and

  8. Statistics with confidence confidence intervals and statistical guidelines

    CERN Document Server

    Altman, Douglas; Bryant, Trevor; Gardner, Stephen

    2013-01-01

    This highly popular introduction to confidence intervals has been thoroughly updated and expanded. It includes methods for using confidence intervals, with illustrative worked examples and extensive guidelines and checklists to help the novice.

  9. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  10. Confidence rating of marine eutrophication assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Ciarán; Andersen, Jesper Harbo; Kaartokallio, Hermanni

    2011-01-01

    This report presents the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in eutrophication status classifications. The method can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication status. The confidence assessment is based on a transparent scoring...... of the 'value' of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. Such secondary assessment of confidence represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision and ultimately a tool for improving or targeting actions to improve the health...

  11. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  12. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  13. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  14. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  15. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038

  16. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  17. US outlook and German confidence : does the confidence channel work?

    OpenAIRE

    Horn, Gustav Adolf

    2003-01-01

    One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other studies the direct informational content of leading US indicators for German producer confidence and the significance of asymmetric reactions is tested. The results show that there is a relationship bet...

  18. Adverse Effects of Tattoos and Piercing on Parent/Patient Confidence in Health Care Providers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Scarlett C; Doi, Maegan L M; Yamamoto, Loren G

    2016-09-01

    First impressions based on practitioner appearance often form the basis for preliminary assumptions regarding trust, confidence, and competence, especially in situations where patients or family members do not have an established relationship with the physician. Given their growing prevalence, we strove to further investigate whether visible tattoos or piercings on a medical provider affects a patient's perception of the provider's capabilities and their trust in the care that would be provided. A survey using photographs of simulated practitioners was administered to 314 participants split between rural and urban locations. Study volunteers rated tattooed practitioners with lower confidence ratings when compared with nontattooed practitioners and reported greater degrees of discomfort with greater degrees of facial piercing. We concluded that these factors adversely affect the clinical confidence ratings of practitioners, regardless of the gender, age group, or location of participants.

  19. Lodging Update: Greater Boston

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Roginsky

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Pinnacle Advisory Group provides an update of lodging industry performance in New England and Boston for the first half of 2012. While the New England region outpaced the nation, the specific story varies from state to state. Only Massachusetts and Vermont achieved REVPAR performance better than the national average. A review of the Greater Boston lodging market reveals that a healthy local economy and strong convention calendar, combined with a number of one-time events and limited new supply, boosted the local market in 2012. The outlook for 2013 in Greater Boston remains positive, with expectations of a 4.7% growth in REVPAR.

  20. [Greater trochanteric pain syndrome].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gollwitzer, H; Opitz, G; Gerdesmeyer, L; Hauschild, M

    2014-01-01

    Greater trochanteric pain is one of the common complaints in orthopedics. Frequent diagnoses include myofascial pain, trochanteric bursitis, tendinosis and rupture of the gluteus medius and minimus tendon, and external snapping hip. Furthermore, nerve entrapment like the piriformis syndrome must be considered in the differential diagnosis. This article summarizes essential diagnostic and therapeutic steps in greater trochanteric pain syndrome. Careful clinical evaluation, complemented with specific imaging studies and diagnostic infiltrations allows determination of the underlying pathology in most cases. Thereafter, specific nonsurgical treatment is indicated, with success rates of more than 90 %. Resistant cases and tendon ruptures may require surgical intervention, which can provide significant pain relief and functional improvement in most cases.

  1. Sources of sport confidence, imagery type and performance among competitive athletes: the mediating role of sports confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, A R; Perry, J; Nicholls, A R; Larkin, D; Davies, J

    2015-01-01

    This study explored the mediating role of sport confidence upon (1) sources of sport confidence-performance relationship and (2) imagery-performance relationship. Participants were 157 competitive athletes who completed state measures of confidence level/sources, imagery type and performance within one hour after competition. Among the current sample, confirmatory factor analysis revealed appropriate support for the nine-factor SSCQ and the five-factor SIQ. Mediational analysis revealed that sport confidence had a mediating influence upon the achievement source of confidence-performance relationship. In addition, both cognitive and motivational imagery types were found to be important sources of confidence, as sport confidence mediated imagery type- performance relationship. Findings indicated that athletes who construed confidence from their own achievements and report multiple images on a more frequent basis are likely to benefit from enhanced levels of state sport confidence and subsequent performance.

  2. Confidence Estimation in Structured Prediction

    CERN Document Server

    Mejer, Avihai

    2011-01-01

    Structured classification tasks such as sequence labeling and dependency parsing have seen much interest by the Natural Language Processing and the machine learning communities. Several online learning algorithms were adapted for structured tasks such as Perceptron, Passive- Aggressive and the recently introduced Confidence-Weighted learning . These online algorithms are easy to implement, fast to train and yield state-of-the-art performance. However, unlike probabilistic models like Hidden Markov Model and Conditional random fields, these methods generate models that output merely a prediction with no additional information regarding confidence in the correctness of the output. In this work we fill the gap proposing few alternatives to compute the confidence in the output of non-probabilistic algorithms.We show how to compute confidence estimates in the prediction such that the confidence reflects the probability that the word is labeled correctly. We then show how to use our methods to detect mislabeled wor...

  3. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    OpenAIRE

    Aitchison, L.; Bang, D; Bahrami, B.; Latham, P.E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we te...

  4. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs.

  5. Diagnosing dementia with confidence by GPs.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hout, H.P.J. van; Vernooij-Dassen, M.J.F.J.; Stalman, W.A.B.

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Earlier reports suggest limited clinical reasoning and substantial uncertainty of GPs in assessing patients suspected of dementia. OBJECTIVE: To explore the predictors of GPs to decide on the presence and absence of dementia as well as the predictors of diagnostic confidence of GPs. DESI

  6. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    modelling strategy is applied to different training sets. For each modelling strategy we estimate a confidence score based on the same repeated bootstraps. A new decomposition of the expected Brier score is obtained, as well as the estimates of population average confidence scores. The latter can be used...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  7. APPLICATION OF ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE ESTIMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valeriy S. Ayzatullen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The socio-economic category of “trust” is studied in the article. The analysis of the existing views about the term “trust” was conducted. A model of the interaction of “Power - Business - People”, using the concept of “trust”, was made. The application and the structure of confidence estimations in economy and politics are studied. The accumulated experience of application of confidence estimations in the macroeconomics of the major countries of the world was showed. The current weaknesses of the confidence indexes are reflected.

  8. Confidence leak in perceptual decision-making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahnev, Dobromir; Koizumi, Ai; McCurdy, Li Yan; D’Esposito, Mark; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    We live in a continuous environment in which the visual scene changes on a slow timescale. It has been shown that, to exploit such environmental stability, the brain creates a “continuity field” such that objects seen seconds ago influence the perception of current objects. What is unknown is whether a similar mechanism exists at the level of our metacognitive representations. In three experiments we demonstrate a robust inter-task “confidence leak” that cannot be explained by response priming or attentional fluctuations. Observers’ ability to modulate this confidence leak predicted higher capacity for metacognition as well as greater gray matter volume in the prefrontal cortex. A model based on normative principles from Bayesian inference explained the results by postulating that observers subjectively estimate the perceptual signal strength in a stable environment. These results point to the existence of a novel metacognitive mechanism mediated by regions in prefrontal cortex. PMID:26408037

  9. Understanding Confidence Intervals With Visual Representations

    OpenAIRE

    Navruz, Bilgin; DELEN, Erhan

    2014-01-01

    In the present paper, we showed how confidence intervals (CIs) are valuable and useful in research studies when they are used in the correct form with correct interpretations. The sixth edition of the APA (2010) Publication Manual strongly recommended reporting CIs in research studies, and it was described as “the best reporting strategy” (p. 34). Misconceptions and correct interpretations of CIs were presented from several textbooks. In addition, limitations of the null hypothesis statistica...

  10. Confidence and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Sylvain Leduc

    2010-01-01

    The idea that business cycle fluctuations may stem partly from changes in consumer and business confidence is controversial. One way to test the idea is to use professional economic forecasts to measure confidence at specific points in time and correlate the results with future economic activity. Such an analysis suggests that changes in expectations regarding future economic performance are important drivers of economic fluctuations. Moreover, periods of heightened optimism are followed by a...

  11. Regaining confidence in confidence intervals for the mean treatment effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Gorman, Thomas W

    2014-09-28

    In many experiments, it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of a treatment by comparing the responses of two groups of subjects. This evaluation is often performed by using a confidence interval for the difference between the population means. To compute the limits of this confidence interval, researchers usually use the pooled t formulas, which are derived by assuming normally distributed errors. When the normality assumption does not seem reasonable, the researcher may have little confidence in the confidence interval because the actual one-sided coverage probability may not be close to the nominal coverage probability. This problem can be avoided by using the Robbins-Monro iterative search method to calculate the limits. One problem with this iterative procedure is that it is not clear when the procedure produces a sufficiently accurate estimate of a limit. In this paper, we describe a multiple search method that allows the user to specify the accuracy of the limits. We also give guidance concerning the number of iterations that would typically be needed to achieve a specified accuracy. This multiple iterative search method will produce limits for one-sided and two-sided confidence intervals that maintain their coverage probabilities with non-normal distributions.

  12. Public acceptance of management actions and judgments of responsibility for the wolves of the southern Greater Yellowstone Area: Report to Grand Teton National Park

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Jonathan G.; Johnson, S. Shea; Shelby, Lori B.

    2005-01-01

    Introduction Wolves of Grand Teton National Park and the Greater Yellowstone Area Gray wolves (Canis lupus) appeared in Grand Teton National Park (GRTE) in October of 1998, two years after being reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park (YNP). Since that time, five packs have been within the GRTE borders - Gros Ventre Pack, Nez Perce Pack, Yellowstone Delta Pack, Teton Pack, and Green River Pack (Table 1). Wolves in the Greater Yellowstone Area are increasing and spreading out geographically (USFWS and others, 2004). This dispersion was demonstrated recently by the death of a 2-year-old female wolf from the Swan Lake pack on I-70 in Colorado (June 7, 2004; http://mountain-prairie.USFWS.gov/pressrel /04-43.htm). The organization of wolf packs in the GYA is dynamic and highly structured. In 2003, for example, a wolf from the Teton Pack joined with the Green River Pack, and several young wolves left the Teton Pack and moved south (USFWS and others, 2004). Pack size (averaging five to ten members) is dependent on hunting efficiency, which depends on prey size, type, and density. Each pack defends home ranges of several hundred square miles. The social structure of the pack is based on a breeding pair (an alpha male and female). Other wolves in the pack can be categorized as betas (males and/or females second in rank to the alphas), subordinates, pups, and occasional omegas (outcasts). Because generally only the alpha pair breeds, subordinate wolves of reproductive age must disperse from their packs and form new associations in order to breed. (http://www.nps.gov/grte/wolf/biolo.htm). The reintroduced wolves are classified by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as "nonessential experimental" under section 10(j) of the Endangered Species Act. The recovery criteria for the GYA wolves were met in 2002 for removing the wolves from the Endangered Species List (30 or more breeding pairs). Currently, the USFWS manages wolf populations in the GYA until delisting occurs

  13. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  14. Increasing the Confidence in Student's $t$ Interval

    OpenAIRE

    Goutis, Constantinos; Casella, George

    1992-01-01

    The usual confidence interval, based on Student's $t$ distribution, has conditional confidence that is larger than the nominal confidence level. Although this fact is known, along with the fact that increased conditional confidence can be used to improve a confidence assertion, the confidence assertion of Student's $t$ interval has never been critically examined. We do so here, and construct a confidence estimator that allows uniformly higher confidence in the interval and is closer (than $1 ...

  15. Professional confidence: a concept analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Kathlyn; Middleton, Lyn; Uys, Leana

    2012-03-01

    Professional confidence is a concept that is frequently used and or implied in occupational therapy literature, but often without specifying its meaning. Rodgers's Model of Concept Analysis was used to analyse the term "professional confidence". Published research obtained from a federated search in four health sciences databases was used to inform the concept analysis. The definitions, attributes, antecedents, and consequences of professional confidence as evidenced in the literature are discussed. Surrogate terms and related concepts are identified, and a model case of the concept provided. Based on the analysis, professional confidence can be described as a dynamic, maturing personal belief held by a professional or student. This includes an understanding of and a belief in the role, scope of practice, and significance of the profession, and is based on their capacity to competently fulfil these expectations, fostered through a process of affirming experiences. Developing and fostering professional confidence should be nurtured and valued to the same extent as professional competence, as the former underpins the latter, and both are linked to professional identity.

  16. Emotional scenes elicit more pronounced self-reported emotional experience and greater EPN and LPP modulation when compared to emotional faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Nathaniel; Knight, Justin; Dishman, Rod; Sabatinelli, Dean; Johnson, Douglas C; Clementz, Brett

    2014-06-01

    Emotional faces and scenes carry a wealth of overlapping and distinct perceptual information. Despite widespread use in the investigation of emotional perception, expressive face and evocative scene stimuli are rarely assessed in the same experiment. Here, we evaluated self-reports of arousal and pleasantness, as well as early and late event-related potentials (e.g., N170, early posterior negativity [EPN], late positive potential [LPP]) as subjects viewed neutral and emotional faces and scenes, including contents representing anger, fear, and joy. Results demonstrate that emotional scenes were rated as more evocative than emotional faces, as only scenes produced elevated self-reports of arousal. In addition, viewing scenes resulted in more extreme ratings of pleasantness (and unpleasantness) than did faces. EEG results indicate that both expressive faces and emotional scenes evoke enhanced negativity in the N170 component, while the EPN and LPP components show significantly enhanced modulation only by scene, relative to face stimuli. These data suggest that viewing emotional scenes results in a more pronounced emotional experience that is associated with reliable modulation of visual event-related potentials that are implicated in emotional circuits in the brain.

  17. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  18. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, Richard D.; Hoekstra, Rink; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Lee, Michael D.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2016-01-01

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  19. The fallacy of placing confidence in confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morey, R.D.; Hoekstra, R.; Rouder, J.N.; Lee, M.D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    Interval estimates – estimates of parameters that include an allowance for sampling uncertainty – have long been touted as a key component of statistical analyses. There are several kinds of interval estimates, but the most popular are confidence intervals (CIs): intervals that contain the true

  20. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  1. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard; Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  2. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, R.; Morey, R.D.; Rouder, J.N.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2014-01-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more

  3. Correlating student knowledge and confidence using a graded knowledge survey to assess student learning in a general microbiology classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favazzo, Lacey; Willford, John D; Watson, Rachel M

    2014-12-01

    Knowledge surveys are a type of confidence survey in which students rate their confidence in their ability to answer questions rather than answering the questions. These surveys have been discussed as a tool to evaluate student in-class or curriculum-wide learning. However, disagreement exists as to whether confidence is actually an accurate measure of knowledge. With the concomitant goals of assessing content-based learning objectives and addressing this disagreement, we present herein a pretest/posttest knowledge survey study that demonstrates a significant difference correctness on graded test questions at different levels of reported confidence in a multi-semester timeframe. Questions were organized into Bloom's taxonomy, allowing for the data collected to further provide statistical analyses on strengths and deficits in various levels of Bloom's reasoning with regard to mean correctness. Collectively, students showed increasing confidence and correctness in all levels of thought but struggled with synthesis-level questions. However, when students were only asked to rate confidence and not answer the accompanying test questions, they reported significantly higher confidence than the control group which was asked to do both. This indicates that when students do not attempt to answer questions, they have significantly greater confidence in their ability to answer those questions. Additionally, when students rate only confidence without answering the question, resolution across Bloom's levels of reasoning is lost. Based upon our findings, knowledge surveys can be an effective tool for assessment of both breadth and depth of knowledge, but may require students to answer questions in addition to rating confidence to provide the most accurate data.

  4. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  5. International Communication and Confidence-Building in Europe. Report of the Leipzig-Tampere Seminar on Confidence-Building in the Non-Military Field (1st, Leipzig, East Germany, May 14-15, 1986). Publications Series B. 20/1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinwachter, Wolfgang, Ed.; Nordenstreng, Kaarle, Ed.

    Focusing on the role of the international mass media, these essays stress the urgency of building confidence in the relations among European states and populations in order to secure peace on a world-wide scale and to stop the arms race on the earth and prevent its extension to outer space. Titles and authors are as follows: (1) "Welcoming…

  6. Alan Greenspan, the confidence strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwin Le Heron

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available To evaluate the Greenspan era, we nevertheless need to address three questions: Is his success due to talent or just luck? Does he have a system of monetary policy or is he himself the system? What will be his legacy? Greenspan was certainly lucky, but he was also clairvoyant. Above all, he has developed a profoundly original monetary policy. His confidence strategy is clearly opposed to the credibility strategy developed in central banks and the academic milieu after 1980, but also inflation targeting, which today constitutes the mainstream monetary policy regime. The question of his legacy seems more nuanced. However, Greenspan will remain 'for a considerable period of time' a highly heterodox and original central banker. His political vision, his perception of an uncertain world, his pragmatism and his openness form the structure of a powerful alternative system, the confidence strategy, which will leave its mark on the history of monetary policy.

  7. Self-Confidence & Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Bénabou, Roland; Tirole, Jean

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self-esteem and his social environment - in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self--confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering paymen...

  8. The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2010-03-01

    20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for

  9. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-04

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence.

  10. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  11. Confidence crisis of results in biomechanics research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudson, Duane

    2017-11-01

    Many biomechanics studies have small sample sizes and incorrect statistical analyses, so reporting of inaccurate inferences and inflated magnitude of effects are common in the field. This review examines these issues in biomechanics research and summarises potential solutions from research in other fields to increase the confidence in the experimental effects reported in biomechanics. Authors, reviewers and editors of biomechanics research reports are encouraged to improve sample sizes and the resulting statistical power, improve reporting transparency, improve the rigour of statistical analyses used, and increase the acceptance of replication studies to improve the validity of inferences from data in biomechanics research. The application of sports biomechanics research results would also improve if a larger percentage of unbiased effects and their uncertainty were reported in the literature.

  12. ;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

    2017-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

  13. Trauma Collaborative Care Intervention: Effect on Surgeon Confidence in Managing Psychosocial Complications After Orthopaedic Trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegener, Stephen T; Carroll, Eben A; Gary, Joshua L; McKinley, Todd O; OʼToole, Robert V; Sietsema, Debra L; Castillo, Renan C; Frey, Katherine P; Scharfstein, Daniel O; Huang, Yanjie; Collins, Susan C J; MacKenzie, Ellen J

    2017-08-01

    The impact of the Trauma Collaborative Care (TCC) program on surgeon confidence in managing the psychosocial sequelae of orthopaedic trauma was evaluated as part of a larger prospective, multisite, cluster clinical trial. We compared confidence and perceived resource availability among surgeons practicing in trauma centers that implemented the TCC program with orthopaedic trauma surgeons in similar trauma centers that did not implement the TCC. Prospective cohort design. Level-I trauma centers. Attending surgeons and fellows (N = 95 Pre and N = 82 Post). Self-report 10-item measure of surgeon confidence in managing psychosocial issues associated with trauma and perceived availability of support resources. Analyses, performed on the entire sample and repeated on the subset of 52 surgeons who responded to the survey at both times points, found surgeons at intervention sites experienced a significantly greater positive improvement (P < 0.05) in their (1) belief that they have strategies to help orthopaedic trauma patients change their psychosocial situation; (2) confidence in making appropriate referrals for orthopaedic trauma patients with psychosocial problems; and (3) belief that they have access to information to guide the management of psychosocial issues related to recovery. Initial data suggest that the establishment of the TCC program can improve surgeons' perceived availability of resources and their confidence in managing the psychosocial sequelae after injury. Further studies will be required to determine if this translates into beneficial patient effects. Therapeutic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  14. A simultaneous confidence band for sparse longitudinal regression

    KAUST Repository

    Ma, Shujie

    2012-01-01

    Functional data analysis has received considerable recent attention and a number of successful applications have been reported. In this paper, asymptotically simultaneous confidence bands are obtained for the mean function of the functional regression model, using piecewise constant spline estimation. Simulation experiments corroborate the asymptotic theory. The confidence band procedure is illustrated by analyzing CD4 cell counts of HIV infected patients.

  15. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  16. The confidence of speech-language pathology students regarding communicating with people with aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finch, Emma; Fleming, Jennifer; Brown, Kyla; Lethlean, Jennifer; Cameron, Ashley; McPhail, Steven M

    2013-06-27

    Aphasia is an acquired language disorder that can present a significant barrier to patient involvement in healthcare decisions. Speech-language pathologists (SLPs) are viewed as experts in the field of communication. However, many SLP students do not receive practical training in techniques to communicate with people with aphasia (PWA) until they encounter PWA during clinical education placements. This study investigated the confidence and knowledge of SLP students in communicating with PWA prior to clinical placements using a customised questionnaire. Confidence in communicating with people with aphasia was assessed using a 100-point visual analogue scale. Linear, and logistic, regressions were used to examine the association between confidence and age, as well as confidence and course type (graduate-entry masters or undergraduate), respectively. Knowledge of strategies to assist communication with PWA was examined by asking respondents to list specific strategies that could assist communication with PWA. SLP students were not confident with the prospect of communicating with PWA; reporting a median 29-points (inter-quartile range 17-47) on the visual analogue confidence scale. Only, four (8.2%) of respondents rated their confidence greater than 55 (out of 100). Regression analyses indicated no relationship existed between confidence and students' age (p = 0.31, r-squared = 0.02), or confidence and course type (p = 0.22, pseudo r-squared = 0.03). Students displayed limited knowledge about communication strategies. Thematic analysis of strategies revealed four overarching themes; Physical, Verbal Communication, Visual Information and Environmental Changes. While most students identified potential use of resources (such as images and written information), fewer students identified strategies to alter their verbal communication (such as reduced speech rate). SLP students who had received aphasia related theoretical coursework, but not commenced clinical placements

  17. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

  18. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  19. Confidence Intervals for Standardized Effect Sizes: Theory, Application, and Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Kelley

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The behavioral, educational, and social sciences are undergoing a paradigmatic shift in methodology, from disciplines that focus on the dichotomous outcome of null hypothesis significance tests to disciplines that report and interpret effect sizes and their corresponding confidence intervals. Due to the arbitrariness of many measurement instruments used in the behavioral, educational, and social sciences, some of the most widely reported effect sizes are standardized. Although forming confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes can be very beneficial, such confidence interval procedures are generally difficult to implement because they depend on noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions. At present, no main-stream statistical package provides exact confidence intervals for standardized effects without the use of specialized programming scripts. Methods for the Behavioral, Educational, and Social Sciences (MBESS is an R package that has routines for calculating confidence intervals for noncentral t, F, and x2 distributions, which are then used in the calculation of exact confidence intervals for standardized effect sizes by using the confidence interval transformation and inversion principles. The present article discusses the way in which confidence intervals are formed for standardized effect sizes and illustrates how such confidence intervals can be easily formed using MBESS in R.

  20. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  1. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  2. Signatures of a statistical computation in the human sense of confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Joshua I.; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    Summary Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one’s beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the estimated probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and for erroneous choices, that confidence decreased with increasing evidence strength. We show that these patterns lawfully arise when statistical confidence qualifies a decision. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence. PMID:27151640

  3. Properties of frequentist confidence levels derivatives

    CERN Document Server

    Martínez, Miriam Lucio; Dettori, Francesco

    2016-01-01

    In high energy physics, results from searches for new particles or rare processes are often reported using a modified frequentist approach, known as $\\rm{CL_s}$ method. In this paper, we study the properties of the derivatives of $\\rm{CL_s}$ and $\\rm{CL_{s+b}}$ as signal strength estimators if the confidence levels are interpreted as credible intervals. Our approach allows obtaining best fit points and $\\chi^2$ functions which can be used for phenomenology studies. In addition, this approach can be used to incorporate $\\rm{CL_s}$ results into Bayesian combinations.

  4. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC), in 2007." (1 page)

  5. Confidence sets for network structure

    CERN Document Server

    Airoldi, Edoardo M; Wolfe, Patrick J

    2011-01-01

    Latent variable models are frequently used to identify structure in dichotomous network data, in part because they give rise to a Bernoulli product likelihood that is both well understood and consistent with the notion of exchangeable random graphs. In this article we propose conservative confidence sets that hold with respect to these underlying Bernoulli parameters as a function of any given partition of network nodes, enabling us to assess estimates of 'residual' network structure, that is, structure that cannot be explained by known covariates and thus cannot be easily verified by manual inspection. We demonstrate the proposed methodology by analyzing student friendship networks from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health that include race, gender, and school year as covariates. We employ a stochastic expectation-maximization algorithm to fit a logistic regression model that includes these explanatory variables as well as a latent stochastic blockmodel component and additional node-specific...

  6. Conscientiousness predicts greater recovery from negative emotion

    OpenAIRE

    Kristin N Javaras; Schaefer, Stacey M.; van Reekum, Carien M.; Lapate, Regina C.; Greischar, Lawrence L.; Bachuber, David R.; Love, Gale; Ryff, Carol D.; Richard J Davidson

    2012-01-01

    Greater levels of conscientiousness have been associated with lower levels of negative affect. We focus on one mechanism through which conscientiousness may decrease\\ud negative affect: effective emotion regulation, as reflected by greater recovery from negative stimuli. In 273 adults who were 35 - 85 years old, we collected self-report measures of personality including conscientiousness and its self-control facet, followed\\ud on average 2 years later by psychophysiological measures of emotio...

  7. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence.

  8. Confidence in correct inhaler technique and its association with treatment adherence and health status among US patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Alpesh N; Ganapathy, Vaidyanathan; Roughley, Adam; Small, Mark

    2017-01-01

    Improper use of bronchodilators is associated with poor disease control, nonadherence to long-term therapy, and poor clinical outcomes. Our current understanding of factors associated with correct inhaler use and adherence is limited. We measured physician-and patient-reported confidence in device usage and associations with treatment adherence and COPD-related health status. This was an analysis of a US observational, point-in-time survey of physicians and patients. Physicians who met study eligibility criteria completed surveys for 5 consecutive, eligible patients who were then invited to respond to questionnaires. We assessed patient demographics, type of prescribed inhaler device(s), device training, COPD severity, comorbidities, physician-and patient self-reported confidence in device usage, treatment adherence, and health status. Completed questionnaires for 373 patients were provided by 134 physicians. Complete confidence in device usage was observed for 22% and 17% of patients as reported by patients and physicians, respectively. Greater confidence was associated with higher self-reported adherence to inhaler usage. Physicians were more likely than patients to report lower levels of patient confidence in device usage. High physician- and patient-reported confidence were associated with more favorable health status. Predictors of confidence in device usage included fewer comorbidities, no depression, and higher education levels. Low confidence in inhaler usage was associated with lower adherence and poor COPD-related health status. Choice of inhaler device tailored to patients' ability to use specific devices and ongoing education to support optimal inhaler usage may improve patient confidence and enhance both adherence and health status.

  9. Robust misinterpretation of confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Morey, Richard D; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

    2014-10-01

    Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) is undoubtedly the most common inferential technique used to justify claims in the social sciences. However, even staunch defenders of NHST agree that its outcomes are often misinterpreted. Confidence intervals (CIs) have frequently been proposed as a more useful alternative to NHST, and their use is strongly encouraged in the APA Manual. Nevertheless, little is known about how researchers interpret CIs. In this study, 120 researchers and 442 students-all in the field of psychology-were asked to assess the truth value of six particular statements involving different interpretations of a CI. Although all six statements were false, both researchers and students endorsed, on average, more than three statements, indicating a gross misunderstanding of CIs. Self-declared experience with statistics was not related to researchers' performance, and, even more surprisingly, researchers hardly outperformed the students, even though the students had not received any education on statistical inference whatsoever. Our findings suggest that many researchers do not know the correct interpretation of a CI. The misunderstandings surrounding p-values and CIs are particularly unfortunate because they constitute the main tools by which psychologists draw conclusions from data.

  10. Monitoring and research on the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Pine Nut Mountains, California and Nevada—Study progress report, 2011–15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, Peter S.; Andrle, Katie M.; Ziegler, Pilar T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2016-09-29

    , but also preferred increased perennial forb abundance. Using maximum likelihood estimation, nest survival for the Pine Nut Mountains PMU during 2011–14 was 23.8 percent (95-percent confidence interval [CI]=0.3–40.6 percent) and appeared lower in comparison to the average 42 percent nest success for sage-grouse range-wide. Brood survival for 50-day brood-rearing phase in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU during 2011–14 was 53.8 percent (95-percent CI=30.0–73.4 percent). Adult survival during 2011–15 was 67.4 percent (95-percent CI=56.1–76.5 percent). During 2011–14, 696 raptor/raven surveys were completed and results indicate a greater number of raven detections (n=464) in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU than at other study areas in Nevada. These data will be used to develop a predator index. We conducted a more minimal monitoring effort of sage-grouse populations during the 2015 field season, which included trapping efforts, general telemetry, brood monitoring, and GPS monitoring. Nest monitoring, microhabitat sampling, and raptor/raven surveys were not conducted in the 2015 season. Deployment of GPS transmitters has expanded our knowledge of movement corridors and fine-scale movement patterns by sage-grouse in the Pine Nut Mountains PMU. Movement corridors between seasonal habitats were identified with one sage-grouse traveling greater than 100 kilometers south to the Bodie Mountains in California for the winter season. The use of GPS technology to monitor movements in conjunction with intensive field efforts will be important in developing habitat models and maps for the Pine Nut Mountains PMU.

  11. Experience, training and confidence among small, non-community drinking water system operators in Ontario, Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pons, Wendy; McEwen, Scott A; Pintar, Katarina; Jones-Bitton, Andria; Young, Ian; Papadopoulos, Andrew

    2014-12-01

    The water operator plays an important role in water safety; however, little published research exists that has examined this role. The purpose of this study was to develop a greater understanding of the experience, existing knowledge, confidence and future training needs of the small, non-community drinking water operator in Ontario in order to help guide future outreach and training opportunities. A cross-sectional telephone survey of 332 small, non-community drinking water operators in Ontario was conducted in July and August 2011. Survey questions pertained to respondents' experience as operators, formal training, perceived importance of water safety issues, confidence in handling water safety issues, and future training needs. Approximately 16% (54/330) of respondents had one year or less experience as a water operator, and 60% (199/332) reported that being a water operator was not a chosen profession. Only 37% (124/332) of operators reported completing operator training. Respondents reported a preference for online training courses or on-site training (compared with a classroom setting). Low training rates, inexperience, and in certain situations, low confidence, among many small water system operators highlight a need to provide continued support to the development of ongoing training opportunities in this population.

  12. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  13. High Confidence Software and Systems Research Needs

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — This White Paper presents a survey of high confidence software and systems research needs. It has been prepared by the High Confidence Software and Systems...

  14. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations.

  15. Conscientiousness predicts greater recovery from negative emotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javaras, Kristin N; Schaefer, Stacey M; van Reekum, Carien M; Lapate, Regina C; Greischar, Lawrence L; Bachhuber, David R; Love, Gayle Dienberg; Ryff, Carol D; Davidson, Richard J

    2012-10-01

    Greater levels of conscientiousness have been associated with lower levels of negative affect. We focus on one mechanism through which conscientiousness may decrease negative affect: effective emotion regulation, as reflected by greater recovery from negative stimuli. In 273 adults who were 35-85 years old, we collected self-report measures of personality including conscientiousness and its self-control facet, followed on average 2 years later by psychophysiological measures of emotional reactivity and recovery. Among middle-aged adults (35-65 years old), the measures of conscientiousness and self-control predicted greater recovery from, but not reactivity to, negative emotional stimuli. The effect of conscientiousness and self-control on recovery was not driven by other personality variables or by greater task adherence on the part of high conscientiousness individuals. In addition, the effect was specific to negative emotional stimuli and did not hold for neutral or positive emotional stimuli.

  16. Status and Confidence, in the Lab

    OpenAIRE

    Jeffrey V. Butler

    2009-01-01

    It is widely recognized that confidence can have important economic consequences. While most of the focus has been on overconfidence, systematic variation in confidence can imply systematic variation in economic outcomes. Intriguingly, sociological and social psychological research suggests that being on the wrong side of inequality undermines confidence. This paper examines the link between inequality and confidence in a controlled, incentive-compatible laboratory setting. Inequality was int...

  17. A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-01

    M.U. Thomas Date Dean, Graduate School of Engineering and Management Table of Contents Page List of Figures...Plato, Aristotle, Plotinus, St Augustine, St Aquinas , Machi- avelli, Descartes, Hobbes, Locke, Rousseau, Kant, Marx, Mill, Confucius) discuss having...independence, and aggregation of confidence is a linear summation of individual confidence values. Thomas and Allcock [61] develop a statistical confidence

  18. Fundamentals,Confidence and Policy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ Entering the third year of the most serious economic crisis since the Great Deprerssion,the world economy is still bogged down on the muddy road to recovery.The latest edition of Standard Chartered Bank's monthly report,Global Focus,published on February 2,offered some analysis on the outlook of the global economy this year.

  19. Food skills confidence and household gatekeepers' dietary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, Melissa; Reid, Mike; Worsley, Anthony; Mavondo, Felix

    2017-01-01

    Household food gatekeepers have the potential to influence the food attitudes and behaviours of family members, as they are mainly responsible for food-related tasks in the home. The aim of this study was to determine the role of gatekeepers' confidence in food-related skills and nutrition knowledge on food practices in the home. An online survey was completed by 1059 Australian dietary gatekeepers selected from the Global Market Insite (GMI) research database. Participants responded to questions about food acquisition and preparation behaviours, the home eating environment, perceptions and attitudes towards food, and demographics. Two-step cluster analysis was used to identify groups based on confidence regarding food skills and nutrition knowledge. Chi-square tests and one-way ANOVAs were used to compare the groups on the dependent variables. Three groups were identified: low confidence, moderate confidence and high confidence. Gatekeepers in the highest confidence group were significantly more likely to report lower body mass index (BMI), and indicate higher importance of fresh food products, vegetable prominence in meals, product information use, meal planning, perceived behavioural control and overall diet satisfaction. Gatekeepers in the lowest confidence group were significantly more likely to indicate more perceived barriers to healthy eating, report more time constraints and more impulse purchasing practices, and higher convenience ingredient use. Other smaller associations were also found. Household food gatekeepers with high food skills confidence were more likely to engage in several healthy food practices, while those with low food skills confidence were more likely to engage in unhealthy food practices. Food education strategies aimed at building food-skills and nutrition knowledge will enable current and future gatekeepers to make healthier food decisions for themselves and for their families. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Linguistic Weighted Aggregation under Confidence Levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chonghui Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop some new linguistic aggregation operators based on confidence levels. Firstly, we introduce the confidence linguistic weighted averaging (CLWA operator and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CLOWA operator. These two new linguistic aggregation operators are able to consider the confidence level of the aggregated arguments provided by the information providers. We also study some of their properties. Then, based on the generalized means, we introduce the confidence generalized linguistic ordered weighted averaging (CGLOWA operator. The main advantage of the CGLOWA operator is that it includes a wide range of special cases such as the CLOWA operator, the confidence linguistic ordered weighted quadratic averaging (CLOWQA operator, and the confidence linguistic ordered weighted geometric (CLOWG operator. Finally, we develop an application of the new approach in a multicriteria decision-making under linguistic environment and illustrate it with a numerical example.

  1. The effect of certain rater roles on confidence in physician's assistant ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowaliby, F J

    1977-11-01

    Previous research on the psychology of confidence suggests that the more confident a rater is in his judgment the more accurate is his rating. The purpose of the present study was to investigate possible differences among raters in their confidence in competency ratings which they had provided. Results indicated significant differences due to the rater's interpersonal role with the ratee and the particular aspect of competence rated. Greater simple structure of competence ratings when adjusted for rater confidence is also shown. Rater confidence is discussed as an index for rater selection and as a moderator variable for competence ratings.

  2. The construction of confidence in a perceptual decision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making involves the selection of one out of many possible courses of action. A decision may bear on other decisions, as when humans seek a second medical opinion before undergoing a risky surgical intervention. These “meta-decisions” are mediated by confidence judgments—the degree to which decision-makers consider that a choice is likely to be correct. We studied how subjective confidence is constructed from noisy sensory evidence. The psychophysical kernels used to convert sensory information into choice and confidence decisions were precisely reconstructed measuring the impact of small fluctuations in sensory input. This is shown in two independent experiments in which human participants made a decision about the direction of motion of a set of randomly moving dots, or compared the brightness of a group of fluctuating bars, followed by a confidence report. The results of both experiments converged to show that: (1) confidence was influenced by evidence during a short window of time at the initial moments of the decision, and (2) confidence was influenced by evidence for the selected choice but was virtually blind to evidence for the non-selected choice. Our findings challenge classical models of subjective confidence—which posit that the difference of evidence in favor of each choice is the seed of the confidence signal. PMID:23049504

  3. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2016-11-11

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity.

  4. Students' intentions towards studying science at upper-secondary school: the differential effects of under-confidence and over-confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although under-confidence and over-confidence (lower or higher confidence than expected, given someone's attainment) have not been considered in detail. Accordingly, this study explored whether under-confident, accurately evaluating, and over-confident students expressed different attitudes towards their science education, and explored how under-confidence and over-confidence might influence students' science intentions. The questionnaire responses of 1523 students from 12 secondary schools in England were considered through analysis of variance and predictive modelling. Under-confident students expressed consistently lower science attitudes than accurately evaluating and over-confident students, despite reporting the same science grades as accurately evaluating students. Students' intentions to study science were predicted by different factors in different ways, depending on whether the students were under-confident, accurate, or over-confident. For accurately evaluating and over-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-efficacy beliefs (their confidence in their expected future science attainment). For under-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-concept beliefs (their confidence in currently 'doing well' or 'being good' at science). Many other differences were also apparent. Fundamentally, under-confidence may be detrimental not simply through associating with lower attitudes, but through students considering their choices in different ways. Under-confidence may accordingly require attention to help ensure that students' future choices are not unnecessarily constrained.

  5. Undergraduate experience and self-assessed confidence in paediatric dentistry: comparison of three UK dental schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodd, H D; Farman, M; Albadri, S; Mackie, I C

    2010-03-13

    Previous studies have suggested that dental students may not receive sufficient clinical experience in core paediatric dentistry skills. This study aimed to compare dental undergraduates' self-reported experience and confidence in paediatric dentistry within three UK dental schools (Liverpool, Manchester and Sheffield). In April/May 2009, 147 final year dental students completed an anonymous questionnaire which captured their experience of seven core clinical skills in both hospital and outreach settings. A visual analogue scale was also employed to record perceived levels of confidence for six generic activities including: examination, diagnosis and treatment planning; patient selection for treatment under general anaesthesia; operative dentistry; preventive dentistry; management of dento-alveolar trauma, and provision of routine care for children on qualification. The key finding was that Liverpool, Manchester and Sheffield dental students received comparable clinical experiences in paediatric dentistry, which appeared to satisfy the requirements of the General Dental Council's The first five years. One hundred percent had carried out fissure sealants and restorations, and 87-98% had experience of extractions. Outreach placements were crucial in ensuring students had sufficient opportunity to undertake core skills, notably extractions and pulp therapies. All students reported a lack of confidence in dental trauma management which warrants greater emphasis in the undergraduate curriculum.

  6. Testosterone and androgen receptor gene polymorphism are associated with confidence and competitiveness in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenegger, Christoph; Kumsta, Robert; Naef, Michael; Gromoll, Jörg; Heinrichs, Markus

    2017-06-01

    A contribution to a special issue on Hormones and Human Competition. Studies in non-human animals and humans have demonstrated the important role of testosterone in competitive interactions. Here, we investigated whether endogenous testosterone levels predict the decision to compete, in a design excluding spite as a motive underlying competitiveness. In a laboratory experiment with real monetary incentives, 181 men solved arithmetic problems, first under a noncompetitive piece rate, followed by a competition incentive scheme. We also assessed several parameters relevant to competition, such as risk taking, performance, and confidence in one's own performance. Salivary testosterone levels were measured before and 20min after the competition task using mass spectrometry. Participants were also genotyped for the CAG repeat polymorphism of the androgen receptor gene, known to influence the efficacy of testosterone signaling in a reciprocal relationship to the number of CAG repeats. We observed a significant positive association between basal testosterone levels and the decision to compete, and that higher testosterone levels were related to greater confidence in one's own performance. Whereas the number of CAG repeats was not associated with the choice to compete, a lower number of CAG repeats was related to greater confidence in those who chose to compete, but this effect was attributable to the polymorphism's effect on actual performance. An increase in testosterone levels was observed following the experiment, and this increase varied with self-reported high-school math grades. We expand upon the latest research by documenting effects of the androgen system in confidence in one's own ability, and conclude that testosterone promotes competitiveness without spite. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Confidence Measurement in the Light of Signal Detection Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sébastien eMassoni

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale, the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure and the Matching Probability (a generalization of the no-loss gambling method. We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory. We find that the Matching Probability provides better results in that respect. We conclude that Matching Probability is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use Signal Detection Theory as a theoretical framework.

  8. Regional Competition for Confidence: Features of Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Svyatoslavovna Vazhenina

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The increase in economic independence of the regions inevitably leads to an increase in the quality requirements of the regional economic policy. The key to successful regional policy, both during its development and implementation, is the understanding of the necessity of gaining confidence (at all levels, and the inevitable participation in the competition for confidence. The importance of confidence in the region is determined by its value as a competitive advantage in the struggle for partners, resources and tourists, and attracting investments. In today’s environment the focus of governments, regions and companies on long-term cooperation is clearly expressed, which is impossible without a high level of confidence between partners. Therefore, the most important competitive advantages of territories are intangible assets such as an attractive image and a good reputation, which builds up confidence of the population and partners. The higher the confidence in the region is, the broader is the range of potential partners, the larger is the planning horizon of long-term concerted action, the better are the chances of acquiring investment, the higher is the level of competitive immunity of the territories. The article defines competition for confidence as purposeful behavior of a market participant in economic environment, aimed at acquiring specific intangible competitive advantage – the confidence of the largest possible number of other market actors. The article also highlights the specifics of confidence as a competitive goal, presents factors contributing to the destruction of confidence, proposes a strategy to fight for confidence as a program of four steps, considers the factors which integrate regional confidence and offers several recommendations for the establishment of effective regional competition for confidence

  9. Assured Human-Autonomy Interaction through Machine Self-Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Matthew

    Autonomous systems employ many layers of approximations in order to operate in increasingly uncertain and unstructured environments. The complexity of these systems makes it hard for a user to understand the systems capabilities, especially if the user is not an expert. However, if autonomous systems are to be used efficiently, their users must trust them appropriately. This purpose of this work is to implement and assess an 'assurance' that an autonomous system can provide to the user to elicit appropriate trust. Specifically, the autonomous system's perception of its own capabilities is reported to the user as the self-confidence assurance. The self-confidence assurance should allow the user to more quickly and accurately assess the autonomous system's capabilities, generating appropriate trust in the autonomous system. First, this research defines self-confidence and discusses what the self-confidence assurance is attempting to communicate to the user. Then it provides a framework for computing the autonomous system's self-confidence as a function of self-confidence factors which correspond to individual elements in the autonomous system's process. In order to explore this idea, self-confidence is implemented on an autonomous system that uses a mixed observability Markov decision process model to solve a pursuit-evasion problem on a road network. The implementation of a factor assessing the goodness of the autonomy's expected performance is focused on in particular. This work highlights some of the issues and considerations in the design of appropriate metrics for the self-confidence factors, and provides the basis for future research for computing self-confidence in autonomous systems.

  10. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  11. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Meyniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics. Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems

  12. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  13. Consumer confidence or the business cycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Nørholm, Henrik; Rangvid, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    Answer: The business cycle. We show that consumer confidence and the output gap both excess returns on stocks in many European countries: When the output gap is positive (the economy is doing well), expected returns are low, and when consumer confidence is high, expected returns are also low....... Consumer confidence and the output gap are also highly positively correlated. In fact, we find that consumer confidence does not contain independent information (i.e. information over and above that contained by the output gap) about expected returns. Our use of European data allows us to examine both...... aggregate European and local-country data on consumer confidence and output gaps. We find that even local-country consumer confidence does not contain independent information about expected returns. Our findings have asset pricing implication: We show taht the cross-country distribution of expected returns...

  14. Intelligence, Self-confidence and Entrepreneurship

    OpenAIRE

    Asoni, Andrea

    2011-01-01

    I investigate the effect of human capital on entrepreneurship using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth - 1979. I find that individuals with higher measured intelligence and self-confidence are more likely to be entrepreneurs. Furthermore I present evidence suggesting that intelligence and self-confidence affect business ownership through two different channels: intelligence increases business survival while self-confidence increases business creation. Finally, once we control for intel...

  15. Confidence Intervals from One One Observation

    CERN Document Server

    Rodriguez, Carlos C

    2008-01-01

    Robert Machol's surprising result, that from a single observation it is possible to have finite length confidence intervals for the parameters of location-scale models, is re-produced and extended. Two previously unpublished modifications are included. First, Herbert Robbins nonparametric confidence interval is obtained. Second, I introduce a technique for obtaining confidence intervals for the scale parameter of finite length in the logarithmic metric. Keywords: Theory/Foundations , Estimation, Prior Distributions, Non-parametrics & Semi-parametrics Geometry of Inference, Confidence Intervals, Location-Scale models

  16. Is it possible to enhance the confidence of student dietitians prior to professional placements? A design-based research model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, L J; Mitchell, L J; Williams, L T

    2017-10-01

    Student confidence is an important contributor to a successful professional placement experience. The present study aimed to evaluate a placement preparation program for student dietitians and to assess the impact on self-rated confidence with respect to commencing placements. The present study is part of a design-based research approach that involves students in a cyclic enquiry to evaluate and improve curricula. Nutrition and Dietetics students at an Australian university participated in a 1-week mandatory workshop - Pre-Placement week (PrePW), N = 98 students: in 2015 (n = 54) and 2016 (n = 44). An online survey was conducted before and after PrePW using a five-point Likert scale (1 = not confident; 5 = very confident) to assess self-rated confidence to commence placements. Mean (SD) scores were calculated. Paired and independent t-tests evaluated within- and between-group differences, respectively. Before PrePW, the mean (SD) for student confidence to commence placements overall (in all areas of practise) was 'somewhat confident' [2.9 (0.6) in 2015 and 3.0 (0.7) in 2016]. Students were least confident to commence Clinical Practice [2015: 2.5 (0.6); 2016: 2.8 (0.6)] compared to Food Service Management (FSM) [2015: 3.2 (0.9); 2016: 3.1 (0.9)] and Community and Public Health Nutrition (CPHN) [2015: 3.3 (0.9); 2016: 3.2 (0.8)]. Student feedback from PrePW 2015 was used to change the curriculum and PrePW program. The 2016 students reported significantly greater confidence within all areas of practice: Clinical Practice [3.4 (0.6)], FSM [3.7 (0.6)] and CPHN [3.8 (0.6)], including confidence to commence placements overall [3.6 (0.6)] (P confidence in preparation for professional placement. © 2017 Commonwealth of Australia. Journal of Human Nutrition and Dietetics © 2017 The British Dietetic Association Ltd.

  17. Resolving Differences among Methods of Establishing Confidence Limits for Test Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glutting, Joseph J.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    This paper discusses the basic theory underlying confidence limits and presents reasons why psychologists should incorporate confidence ranges in their psychodiagnostic reports. Four methods for establishing confidence limits are compared. Three of the methods involve estimated true scores, and the fourth is the standard error of measurement…

  18. A longitudinal study of well-being, confidence and competence in junior doctors and the impact of emergency medicine placements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, Suzanne; O'Keeffe, Colin; Carter, Angela; Stride, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To measure levels of, and change in junior doctor well-being, confidence and self-reported competence over their second postgraduate training year and the impact of emergency department (ED) placements on these outcomes. Design A longitudinal study using an online survey administered at four time points (2010–2011). Setting 28 Acute Hospital Trusts, drawn from nine participating Postgraduate Deaneries in England. Participants Junior doctors who had a placement in an ED as part of their second postgraduate training year. Main outcome measures Levels of anxiety, depression, motivation, job satisfaction, confidence and self-reported competence, collected at four time points spread over the period of the doctor's second training year (F2). Results 217 junior doctors were recruited to the study. Over the year there was a significant increase in their overall job satisfaction, confidence and self-reported competence. Junior doctors also reported significantly increased levels of motivation and anxiety, and significantly decreased levels of extrinsic job satisfaction when working in ED compared with other specialties. There were also significant increases in both junior doctor confidence and self-reported competence after their placement in ED relative to other specialties. Conclusions While elements of junior doctor well-being worsened in their ED placement compared with their time spent in other specialties, the increased levels of anxiety and reduced extrinsic job satisfaction were within the normal range for other healthcare workers. These deficits were also balanced by greater improvements in motivation, confidence in managing common acute clinical conditions and perceived competence in performing acute procedures compared with benefits offered by placements in other specialties. PMID:26338523

  19. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Löwer

    Full Text Available Next generation sequencing (NGS has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR, to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence. All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50, none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set.

  20. 75 FR 81037 - Waste Confidence Decision Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 Waste Confidence Decision Update AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Update and final revision of Waste Confidence Decision. SUMMARY: The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission... update to the Decision were products of rulemaking proceedings designed to assess the degree of...

  1. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Oshins

    2014-01-01

    Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  2. Self-Confidence in the Hospitality Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Oshins

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Few industries rely on self-confidence to the extent that the hospitality industry does because guests must feel welcome and that they are in capable hands. This article examines the results of hundreds of student interviews with industry professionals at all levels to determine where the majority of the hospitality industry gets their self-confidence.

  3. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the trea

  4. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  5. Nonparametric confidence intervals for monotone functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groeneboom, P.; Jongbloed, G.

    2015-01-01

    We study nonparametric isotonic confidence intervals for monotone functions. In [Ann. Statist. 29 (2001) 1699–1731], pointwise confidence intervals, based on likelihood ratio tests using the restricted and unrestricted MLE in the current status model, are introduced. We extend the method to the

  6. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  7. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  8. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  9. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  10. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  11. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    Science.gov (United States)

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  12. Lower confidence limits for structure reliability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Jiading; LI Ji

    2006-01-01

    For a class of data often arising in engineering,we have developed an approach to compute the lower confidence limit for structure reliability with a given confidence level.Especially,in a case with no failure and a case with only one failure,the concrete computational methods are presented.

  13. Financial Literacy, Confidence and Financial Advice Seeking

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kramer, Marc M.

    2016-01-01

    We find that people with higher confidence in their own financial literacy are less likely to seek financial advice, but no relation between objective measures of literacy and advice seeking. The negative association between confidence and advice seeking is more pronounced among wealthy households.

  14. Self-confidence and metacognitive processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kleitman Sabina

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the status of Self-confidence trait. Two studies strongly suggest that Self-confidence is a component of metacognition. In the first study, participants (N=132 were administered measures of Self-concept, a newly devised Memory and Reasoning Competence Inventory (MARCI, and a Verbal Reasoning Test (VRT. The results indicate a significant relationship between confidence ratings on the VRT and the Reasoning component of MARCI. The second study (N=296 employed an extensive battery of cognitive tests and several metacognitive measures. Results indicate the presence of robust Self-confidence and Metacognitive Awareness factors, and a significant correlation between them. Self-confidence taps not only processes linked to performance on items that have correct answers, but also beliefs about events that may never occur.

  15. The computation of Buehler confidence limits

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FANG; Xiangzhong; CHEN; Jiading

    2005-01-01

    In medicine and industry, small sample size often arises owing to the high test cost. Then exact confidence inference is important. Buehler confidence limit is a kind of exact confidence limit for the function of parameters in a model. It can be always defined if the order in sample space is given. But the computing problem is often difficult, especially for the cases with high dimension parameter or with incomplete data. This paper presents an algorithm to compute the Buehler confidence limits by EM algorithm. This is the firsttime usage of EM algorithm on Buehler confidence limits, but the algorithm is often used for maximum likelihood estimate in literatures. Three computation examples are given to illustrate the method.

  16. Predictions Shape Confidence in Right Inferior Frontal Gyrus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Maxine T; Seth, Anil K; Kanai, Ryota

    2016-10-05

    It is clear that prior expectations shape perceptual decision-making, yet their contribution to the construction of subjective decision confidence remains largely unexplored. We recorded fMRI data while participants made perceptual decisions and confidence judgments, manipulating perceptual prior expectations while controlling for potential confounds of attention. Results show that subjective confidence increases as expectations increasingly support the decision, and that this relationship is associated with BOLD activity in right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG). Specifically, rIFG is sensitive to the discrepancy between expectation and decision (mismatch), and higher mismatch responses are associated with lower decision confidence. Connectivity analyses revealed expectancy information to be represented in bilateral orbitofrontal cortex and sensory signals to be represented in intracalcarine sulcus. Together, our results indicate that predictive information is integrated into subjective confidence in rIFG, and reveal an occipital-frontal network that constructs confidence from top-down and bottom-up signals. This interpretation was further supported by exploratory findings that the white matter density of right orbitofrontal cortex negatively predicted its respective contribution to the construction of confidence. Our findings advance our understanding of the neural basis of subjective perceptual processes by revealing an occipitofrontal functional network that integrates prior beliefs into the construction of confidence. Perceptual decision-making is typically conceived as an integration of bottom-up and top-down influences. However, perceptual decisions are accompanied by a sense of confidence. Confidence is an important facet of perceptual consciousness yet remains poorly understood. Here we implicate right inferior frontal gyrus in constructing confidence from the discrepancy between perceptual judgment and its prior probability. Furthermore, we place right

  17. [Autoerotic fatalities in Greater Dusseldorf].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartung, Benno; Hellen, Florence; Borchard, Nora; Huckenbeck, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    Autoerotic fatalities in the Greater Dusseldorf area correspond to the relevant medicolegal literature. Our results included exclusively young to middle-aged, usually single men who were found dead in their city apartments. Clothing and devices used showed a great variety. Women's or fetish clothing and complex shackling or hanging devices were disproportionately frequent. In most cases, death occurred due to hanging or ligature strangulation. There was no increased incidence of underlying psychiatric disorders. In most of the deceased no or at least no remarkable alcohol intoxication was found. Occasionally, it may be difficult to reliably differentiate autoerotic accidents, accidents occurring in connection with practices of bondage & discipline, dominance & submission (BDSM) from natural death, suicide or homicide.

  18. Confidence assessment. Site-descriptive modelling SDM-Site Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-12-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Laxemar). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface-based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. Procedures for this assessment have been progressively refined during the course of the site descriptive modelling, and applied to all previous versions of the Forsmark and Laxemar site descriptive models. They include assessment of whether all relevant data have been considered and understood, identification of the main uncertainties and their causes, possible alternative models and their handling, and consistency between disciplines. The assessment then forms the basis for an overall confidence statement. The confidence in the Laxemar site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface based site investigations, has been assessed by exploring: - Confidence in the site characterization data base, - remaining issues and their handling, - handling of alternatives, - consistency between disciplines and - main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. Generally, the site investigation database is of high quality, as assured by the quality procedures applied. It is judged that the Laxemar site descriptive model has an overall high level of confidence. Because of the relatively robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in the Laxemar Site Descriptive model is judged to be high, even though details of the spatial variability remain unknown. The overall reason for this confidence is the wide spatial distribution of the data and the consistency between

  19. High-Confidence Quantum Gate Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Blake; da Silva, Marcus; Ryan, Colm; Kimmel, Shelby; Donovan, Brian; Ohki, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Debugging and verification of high-fidelity quantum gates requires the development of new tools and protocols to unwrap the performance of the gate from the rest of the sequence. Randomized benchmarking tomography[2] allows one to extract full information of the unital portion of the gate with high confidence. We report experimental confirmation of the technique's applicability to quantum gate tomography. We show that the method is robust to common experimental imperfections such as imperfect single-shot readout and state preparation. We also demonstrate the ability to characterize non-Clifford gates. To assist in the experimental implementation we introduce two techniques. ``Atomic Cliffords'' use phase ramping and frame tracking to allow single-pulse implementation of the full group of single-qubit Clifford gates. Domain specific pulse sequencers allow rapid implementation of the many thousands of sequences needed. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), through the Army Research Office contract no. W911NF-10-1-0324.

  20. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    Vanden Broeck, Renilde

    2007-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collier (LHC) in 2007. (1/2 page)

  2. CERN confident of LHC start-up in 2007

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    "Delegates attending the 140th meeting of CERN Council today heard a confident report from the Laboratory about the scheduled start-up of the world's highest energy particle accelerator, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) in 2007." (1/2 page)

  3. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  4. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  5. Greater trochanter apophysitis in the adolescent athlete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Simon W; Safran, Marc R

    2015-05-01

    Lower limb traction apophysitis is common in young athletes, occurring at sites such as the tibial tubercle (Osgood-Schlatter disease) and distal patella (Sinding-Larsen-Johansson disease). Around the hip, iliac apophysitis is well recognized, but no cases of greater trochanter apophysitis have previously been reported. We describe the case of a 15-year-old male basketball player with a 2-month history of the right hip pain and significant functional limitation. X-rays revealed widening of the greater trochanter apophysis with subchondral sclerosis, consistent with a diagnosis of traction apophysitis. The patient was treated with a period of relative rest and anti-inflammatory medication. He gradually returned to full athletic activity, including basketball, without recurrence of pain or limitation. We describe the first reported case of traction apophysitis of the greater trochanter. The unique muscular anatomy of this apophysis with balanced forces explains the rarity of this condition. If encountered, rest and activity modification is the recommended treatment.

  6. Confidence intervals for the MMPI-2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munley, P H

    1991-08-01

    The confidence intervals for the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI-2) clinical scales were investigated. Based on the clinical scale reliabilities published in the MMPI-2 manual, estimated true scores, standard errors of measurement for estimated true scores, and 95% confidence intervals centered around estimated true scores were calculated at 5-point MMPI-2 T-score intervals. The relationships between obtained T-scores, estimated true T-scores, scale reliabilities, and confidence intervals are discussed. The possible role of error measurement in defining scale high point and code types is noted.

  7. Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data

    OpenAIRE

    Lachowska, Marta

    2013-01-01

    The importance of consumer confidence in stimulating economic activity is a disputed issue in macroeconomics. Do changes in confidence represent autonomous fluctuations in optimism, independent of information on economic fundamentals, or are they a reflection of economic news? I study this question by using high-frequency microdata on spending and consumer confidence, and I find that consumer confidence contains information relevant to predicting spending, independent from other indicators. T...

  8. Confidence and Construal Framing: When Confidence Increases versus Decreases Information Processing

    OpenAIRE

    Echo Wen Wan; Derek D. Rucker

    2013-01-01

    A large literature demonstrates that people process information more carefully in states of low compared to high confidence. This article presents an alternative hypothesis that either high or low confidence can increase or decrease information processing on the basis of how information is construed. Five experiments demonstrate two sets of findings supporting this alternative formulation. First, low confidence leads people to focus on concrete construals, whereas high confidence leads people...

  9. The Asteroid Identification Problem. II. Target Plane Confidence Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

    1999-08-01

    important. We apply this technique to discuss the recent case of asteroid 1997 XF11, which, on the basis of the observations available up to March 11, 1998, appeared to be on an orbit with a near miss of the Earth in 2028. Although the least squares solution had a close approach at 1/8 of the lunar distance, the linear confidence regions corresponding to acceptable size of the residuals are very elongated ellipses which do not include collision; this computation was reported by Chodas and Yeomans. In this paper, we compute the semilinear confidence boundaries and find that they agree with the results of the Monte Carlo method, but differ in a significant way from the linear ellipses, although the differences occur only far from the Earth. The use of the 1990 prediscovery observations has confirmed the impossibility of an impact in 2028 and reduces the semilinear confidence regions to subsets of the regions computed with less data, as expected. The confidence regions computed using the linear approximation, on the other hand, do not reduce to subsets of the regions computed with less data. We also discuss a simulated example (Bowell and Muinonen 1992, Bull. Am. Astron. Soc.24, 965) of an Earth-impacting asteroid. In this hypothetical case the semilinear confidence boundary has a completely different shape from the linear ellipse, and indeed for orbits determined with only few weeks of observational data the semilinear confidence boundary correctly includes possible collisions, while the linear one does not. Free software is available now, allowing everyone to compute target plane confidence boundaries as in this paper; in case a new asteroid with worrisome close approaches is discovered, our method allows to quickly perform an accurate risk assessment.

  10. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  11. Age differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pliske, R M; Mutter, S A

    1996-01-01

    Age differences in accuracy were investigated by having older (M = 68.6 years) and younger (M = 21.5 years) adults make confidence judgments about the correctness of their responses to two sets of general knowledge items. For one set, prior to making their confidence judgments, subjects made mental strategy judgements indicating how they had selected their answers (i.e., they guessed, used intuition, made an inference, or immediately recognized the response as correct). Results indicate that older subjects were more accurate than younger subjects in predicting the correctness of their responses; however, making mental strategy judgments did not result in increased accuracy for either age group. Additional analyses explored the relationship between accuracy and other individual difference variables. The results of this investigation are consistent with recent theories of postformal cognitive development that suggest older adults have greater insight into the limitations of their knowledge.

  12. Greater Trochanter Tuberculosis : MRI Findings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    My Youssef Alaoui Lamrani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Tuberculosis has been reported in almost all bones of body. The great trochanter tuberculosis (GTT installation is insidious and clinical symptoms are often vague with moderate painful swelling and stiffness. GTT is about 0,2 to 2% of all osteo-articular tuberculosis, occurring most commonly by hematogenous seeding secondary to primary focus elsewhere, more commonly in the lungs. Isolated GTT is unusual and thus its awareness is slow and diagnosis is often delayed.

  13. European Businesses Remain Confident about China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    @@ On June 30th, 2009, the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China launches its sixth annual European Chamber Business Confidence Survey, which is published in partnership with Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.

  14. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  15. Confidence intervals with a priori parameter bounds

    CERN Document Server

    Lokhov, A V

    2014-01-01

    We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution of the problem. Derived are the solutions for the cases of a continuous distribution with non-negative estimated parameter and a discrete distribution, specifically a Poisson process with background. For both cases, the best upper limit is constructed that accounts for the a priori information. A table is provided with the confidence intervals for the parameter of Poisson distribution that correctly accounts for the information on the known value of the background along with the software for calculating the confidence intervals for any confidence levels and magnitudes of the background (the software is freely available for download via Internet).

  16. When business is a confidence game.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, J W; Alba, J W

    2001-06-01

    When it comes to making business decisions, being overconfident about your choices can actually be more harmful than just guessing. Here's how managers can calibrate their confidence levels-and avoid being too sure in the wrong situations.

  17. Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction—the princi- ple (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in...eliminative induction. As first proposed by Francis Bacon [Schum 2001] and extended by L. Jonathan Cohen [Cohen 1970, 1977, 1989], eliminative induction is...eliminative in- duction—the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for

  18. Better Confidence Intervals for Importance Sampling

    OpenAIRE

    HALIS SAK; WOLFGANG HÖRMANN; JOSEF LEYDOLD

    2010-01-01

    It is well known that for highly skewed distributions the standard method of using the t statistic for the confidence interval of the mean does not give robust results. This is an important problem for importance sampling (IS) as its final distribution is often skewed due to a heavy tailed weight distribution. In this paper, we first explain Hall's transformation and its variants to correct the confidence interval of the mean and then evaluate the performance of these methods for two numerica...

  19. Confidence in value-based choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Fleming, Stephen M.; Garrett, Neil; Dolan, Raymond

    2013-01-01

    Summary Decisions are never perfect with confidence in one’s choices fluctuating over time. How subjective confidence and valuation of choice options interact at the level of brain and behavior is unknown. Using a dynamic model of the decision process we show that confidence reflects the evolution of a decision variable over time, explaining the observed relation between confidence, value, accuracy and reaction time. As predicted by our dynamic model, we show that an fMRI signal in human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) reflects both value comparison and confidence in the value comparison process. Crucially, individuals varied in how they related confidence to accuracy, allowing us to show that this introspective ability is predicted by a measure of functional connectivity between vmPFC and rostrolateral prefrontal cortex (rlPFC). Our findings provide a mechanistic link between noise in value comparison and metacognitive awareness of choice, enabling us both to want and to express knowledge of what we want. PMID:23222911

  20. Graphing within-subjects confidence intervals using SPSS and S-Plus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel B

    2007-02-01

    Within-subjects confidence intervals are often appropriate to report and to display. Loftus and Masson (1994) have reported methods to calculate these, and their use is becoming common. In the present article, procedures for calculating within-subjects confidence intervals in SPSS and S-Plus are presented (an R version is on the accompanying Web site). The procedure in S-Plus allows the user to report the bias corrected and adjusted bootstrap confidence intervals as well as the standard confidence intervals based on traditional methods. The presented code can be easily altered to fit the individual user's needs.

  1. Business confidence still high in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amanor-wilks, D

    1995-12-01

    Business confidence has not been affected in Zimbabwe despite the AIDS epidemic in that country. An Australian mining company has recruited people to work at its platinum mine in Zimbabwe and also instituted an AIDS awareness program. The National Chamber of Commerce disclosed that semiskilled and unskilled workers who are the "easiest to replace" have been most affected by the epidemic. The impact of AIDS has not been as bad as had been predicted several years ago. By the end of the 1990s, however, there might be a skills shortage. The first AIDS case was detected in 1985 in Zimbabwe. By the end of 1995 a cumulative total of 38,500 cases had been reported, but the National AIDS Control Program believes that the true figure is over 100,000. The estimated number of HIV-infected people is about 1 million. The most economically productive age group (30-50) has the highest rates of infection. Transport is affected most, followed by mining and commercial farming. Infection rates among miners are estimated to be 20-30% and the rates are the highest at the mines on the major transport routes. The mining industry has not had any problems in recruiting labor, but, increasingly, deaths are AIDS-related. The growing sex industry at the mines has accelerated the spread of HIV. In addition, small mines do not have AIDS awareness programs in place. The National Employment Council runs a project for the transport industry, which seeks to intensify AIDS campaigns at truck stops. This also entails talks to drivers about AIDS; courses for police, nurses, and sex workers; and the distribution of condoms. In commercial farming, two-thirds of workers are unskilled casual laborers who live in squalid conditions that foster the spread of AIDS. At these farms there is also a growing number of orphans, whose number is estimated to rise to 60,000 by the late 1990s.

  2. Increasing Product Confidence-Shifting Paradigms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Marla; Kashyap, Vishal; Cheung, Mee-Shew

    2015-01-01

    Leaders in the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food industries expressed a unilateral concern over product confidence throughout the total product lifecycle, an unsettling fact for these leaders to manage given that their products affect the lives of millions of people each year. Fueled by the heparin incident of intentional adulteration in 2008, initial efforts for increasing product confidence were focused on improving the confidence of incoming materials, with a belief that supplier performance must be the root cause. As in the heparin case, concern over supplier performance extended deep into the supply chain to include suppliers of the suppliers-which is often a blind spot for pharmaceutical, device, and food manufacturers. Resolved to address the perceived lack of supplier performance, these U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-regulated industries began to adopt the supplier relationship management strategy, developed by the automotive industry, that emphasizes "management" of suppliers for the betterment of the manufacturers. Current product and supplier management strategies, however, have not led to a significant improvement in product confidence. As a result of the enduring concern by industry leaders over the lack of product confidence, Xavier University launched the Integrity of Supply Initiative in 2012 with a team of industry leaders and FDA officials. Through a methodical research approach, data generated by the pharmaceutical, medical device, and food manufacturers surprisingly pointed to themselves as a source of the lack of product confidence, and revealed that manufacturers either unknowingly increase the potential for error or can control/prevent many aspects of product confidence failure. It is only through this paradigm shift that manufacturers can work collaboratively with their suppliers as equal partners, instead of viewing their suppliers as "lesser" entities needing to be controlled. The basis of this shift provides manufacturers

  3. The Role of Dyadic Confidence on Engagement in Heart Failure Care Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Karen S; Gelow, Jill M; Hiatt, Shirin O; Mudd, James O; Auld, Jonathan; Chien, Christopher V; Lee, Christopher S

    2017-04-26

    Increasingly, older adults and their families are expected to manage complex conditions with little support. In the case of heart failure (HF), symptom monitoring and management are critical in preventing acute exacerbations and poor clinical outcomes. The current study examined the role of dyadic confidence on engagement in HF care behaviors by patients and their spouses. A cross-sectional design was used to examine 60 couples living with HF. Three dyadic confidence variables were created to represent average level of confidence, gap in confidence, and direction of gap within each couple. A series of multilevel models were used to examine dyadic engagement in HF maintenance, management, and consulting behaviors and the role of dyadic confidence. Patients were significantly more engaged in HF maintenance behaviors than spouses; couples were more collaborative in their engagement in HF management and consulting behaviors. Average level of confidence in the dyad was significantly associated with patient engagement in all three HF behaviors. Spouse engagement was associated with more congruence in confidence and having higher levels of confidence than their partners with HF. Women were significantly more engaged in HF behaviors than men, regardless of role. The study employed a dyadic approach to HF care and a novel approach to confidence. Findings confirm the social nature of confidence and its important role in HF. Clinicians have opportunities to optimize patient outcomes by fostering greater collaboration within couples.

  4. ADAM SMITH: THE INVISIBLE HAND OR CONFIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Luis, Gache

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1776 Adam Smith raised the matter that an invisible hand was the one which moved the markets to obtain its efficiency. Despite in the present paper we are going to raise the hypothesis, that this invisible hand is in fact the confidence that each person feels when he is going to do business. That in addition it is unique, because it is different from the confidence of the others and that is a variable nonlinear that essentially is ligatured to respective personal histories. For that we are going to take as its bases the paper by Leopoldo Abadía (2009, with respect to the financial economy crisis that happened in 2007-2008, to evidence the form in which confidence operates. Therefore the contribution that we hope to do with this paper is to emphasize that, the level of confidence of the different actors, is the one which really moves the markets, (therefore the economy and that the crisis of the subprime mortgages is a confidence crisis at world-wide level.

  5. An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capraro, Mary Margaret

    This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual"…

  6. A Survey Study of Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence about Teaching Early Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie-Qi; McCray, Jennifer; Adams, Margaret; Leow, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This study reports on results from the Early Mathematics Beliefs and Confidence Survey, administered to 346 preschool teachers in a large public school system in the Midwest. Survey results depict a much more positive view of teachers' beliefs and confidence in early math teaching than previously reported. Results also suggest that teacher…

  7. A Survey Study of Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence about Teaching Early Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie-Qi; McCray, Jennifer; Adams, Margaret; Leow, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This study reports on results from the Early Mathematics Beliefs and Confidence Survey, administered to 346 preschool teachers in a large public school system in the Midwest. Survey results depict a much more positive view of teachers' beliefs and confidence in early math teaching than previously reported. Results also suggest that teacher…

  8. A Survey Study of Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence about Teaching Early Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jie-Qi; McCray, Jennifer; Adams, Margaret; Leow, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This study reports on results from the Early Mathematics Beliefs and Confidence Survey, administered to 346 preschool teachers in a large public school system in the Midwest. Survey results depict a much more positive view of teachers' beliefs and confidence in early math teaching than previously reported. Results also suggest that teacher…

  9. Maximum confidence measurements via probabilistic quantum cloning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Wen-Hai; Yu Long-Bao; Cao Zhuo-Liang; Ye Liu

    2013-01-01

    Probabilistic quantum cloning (PQC) cannot copy a set of linearly dependent quantum states.In this paper,we show that if incorrect copies are allowed to be produced,linearly dependent quantum states may also be cloned by the PQC.By exploiting this kind of PQC to clone a special set of three linearly dependent quantum states,we derive the upper bound of the maximum confidence measure of a set.An explicit transformation of the maximum confidence measure is presented.

  10. Disparities in Confidence to Manage Chronic Diseases in Men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keith Elder

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Chronic diseases are highly prevalent among men in the United States and chronic disease management is problematic for men, particularly for racial and ethnic minority men. Objectives: This study examined the association between health information seeking and confidence to manage chronic diseases among men. Methods: Study data were drawn from the 2007 Health Tracking Household Survey and analyzed using multiple binary logistic regressions. The analytical sample included 2,653 men, 18 years and older with a chronic illness. Results: Health information seeking was not associated with confidence to manage chronic illnesses. African-American men had lower odds than White men to agree to take actions to prevent symptoms with their health. Hispanic men had lower odds than White men to agree to tell a doctor concerns they have, even when not asked. Conclusions: Racial and ethnic minority men with a chronic condition appear to be less confident to manage their health compared to white men. Chronic disease management needs greater exploration to understand the best ways to help racial and ethnic minority men successfully manage their chronic condition.

  11. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  12. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  13. A Comparative Study of Self-Confidence from the Perspectives of Quran, Ahadith and Psychology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayyed Ali Mostajaboldavati

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Self-confidence, referring to relying on and exploiting individual abilities and talents for realizing spiritual and material prosperity, not only contradicts but is in agreement with and a prerequisite for faith in God. Practically, the greater faith in God one has, the more potent self-confidence he /she possess. Investigating the subject of self-confidence from the perspectives of Quran, Ahadith and psychology, this study explores the meaning of self (soul in self-confidence and its levels, the prerequisites for development and enhancement of self-confidence, the association of self-concept and self-esteem with self-confidence, and the approaches to develop and enhance positive self-concept as well as to boost self-confidence. Methods: The data of this descriptive review article were gathered from library and digital references. Results: Although it appears that self-confidence contradicts Islamic teachings, it can be clearly understood that this teaching subject is confirmed and emphasized in Islamic teachings by discovery of its true meaning. Conclusion: If having self-confidence is meant to rely on and exploiting individual abilities and talents to reach material and spiritual prosperity, it not only does not contradict but is in agreement with and a prerequisite for faith in God. Self in self- confidence indeed means human as a combination of the body and the spirit which is fully consistent with indices of self-confidence. According to psychologists, improving self-esteem and positive self-concept affects self-confidence directly. From perspective of religion, paying attention to venerability and God-given dignity of human, recognizing the superb purpose in life, etc. are approaches to develop and enhance positive self-concept and self-esteem, and to boost self-confidence.

  14. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xueping

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs, aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83% of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134% than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109% or occurrence ranking (~46%. Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence

  15. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  16. Commercial Integrated Heat Pump with Thermal Storage --Demonstrate Greater than 50% Average Annual Energy Savings, Compared with Baseline Heat Pump and Water Heater (Go/No-Go) FY16 4th Quarter Milestone Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shen, Bo [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Baxter, Van D. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rice, C. Keith [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Abu-Heiba, Ahmad [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2017-03-01

    For this study, we authored a new air source integrated heat pump (AS-IHP) model in EnergyPlus, and conducted building energy simulations to demonstrate greater than 50% average energy savings, in comparison to a baseline heat pump with electric water heater, over 10 US cities, based on the EnergyPlus quick-service restaurant template building. We also assessed water heating energy saving potentials using ASIHP versus gas heating, and pointed out climate zones where AS-IHPs are promising.

  17. The effect of self-confidence on financial literacy

    OpenAIRE

    Alfonso Arellano; Noelia Camara; David Tuesta

    2014-01-01

    This study analyses whether self-confidence affects financial abilities of young people in Spain, through financial literacy. We use data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) Financial Literacy (2012) report, conducted by the OECD. Our hypothesis is that non-cognitive factors are important to establish young people s financial literacy. Financial knowledge, together with other personal attitudes, determines people s financial behaviour. We focus on the role of self-c...

  18. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  19. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Jaeger

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45° represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays.

  20. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.M.W.J. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the action-b

  1. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Beetsma; J. Cimadomo; O. Furtuna; M. Giuliodori

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on th

  2. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  3. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.

    2000-07-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  4. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    CERN Document Server

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J A

    2000-01-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  5. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  6. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that sus

  7. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Laeven, L.; Perotti, E.C.

    2001-01-01

    Investor confidence is a necessary condition for the development of emerging markets. Investors recognize that since market-oriented reform policies may be reversed or hindered, they face the risk of ex post policy changes with redistributive impact on investment returns. We argue that a sustained p

  8. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the transmission of fiscal policy that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on

  9. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  10. The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Cimadomo, J.; Furtuna, O.; Giuliodori, M.

    2014-01-01

    We explore how fiscal consolidations affect private sector confidence, a possible channel for the fiscal transmission that has received particular attention recently as a result of governments embarking on austerity trajectories in the aftermath of the crisis. Panel regressions based on the

  11. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  12. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  13. Confidence building in emerging stock markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.C.; Laeven, L.; van Oijen, P.

    2000-01-01

    Investor confidence in reliable property rights and stable, market-oriented policies are a necessary condition for financial integration and the development of emerging stock markets. Announced market-oriented policies may be reversed, however, and are initially not fully credible. We argue that

  14. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce.

  15. Mesolimbic confidence signals guide perceptual learning in the absence of external feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guggenmos, Matthias; Wilbertz, Gregor; Hebart, Martin N; Sterzer, Philipp

    2016-03-29

    It is well established that learning can occur without external feedback, yet normative reinforcement learning theories have difficulties explaining such instances of learning. Here, we propose that human observers are capable of generating their own feedback signals by monitoring internal decision variables. We investigated this hypothesis in a visual perceptual learning task using fMRI and confidence reports as a measure for this monitoring process. Employing a novel computational model in which learning is guided by confidence-based reinforcement signals, we found that mesolimbic brain areas encoded both anticipation and prediction error of confidence-in remarkable similarity to previous findings for external reward-based feedback. We demonstrate that the model accounts for choice and confidence reports and show that the mesolimbic confidence prediction error modulation derived through the model predicts individual learning success. These results provide a mechanistic neurobiological explanation for learning without external feedback by augmenting reinforcement models with confidence-based feedback.

  16. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  17. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  18. A Method to Compute Multiplicity Corrected Confidence Intervals for Odds Ratios and Other Relative Effect Estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Jimmy Thomas Efird; Susan Searles Nielsen

    2008-01-01

    Epidemiological studies commonly test multiple null hypotheses. In some situations it may be appropriate to account for multiplicity using statistical methodology rather than simply interpreting results with greater caution as the number of comparisons increases. Given the one-to-one relationship that exists between confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, we derive a method based upon the Hochberg step-up procedure to obtain multiplicity corrected confidence intervals (CI) for odds ratios ...

  19. Technical Efficiency of Australian Wool Production: Point and Confidence Interval Estimates

    OpenAIRE

    2002-01-01

    A balanced panel of data is used to estimate technical efficiency, employing a fixed-effects stochastic frontier specification for wool producers in Australia. Both point estimates and confidence intervals for technical efficiency are reported. The confidence intervals are constructed using the Multiple Comparisons with the Best (MCB) procedure of Horrace and Schmidt (2000). The confidence intervals make explicit the precision of the technical efficiency estimates and underscore the dangers o...

  20. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2007-12-01

    This study examined changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge could not be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest there may be important connections between the 2 for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  1. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    OpenAIRE

    Gariela Gonçalves; Luís Afonso; Marta Ferreira; Teresa Ferro; Nascimento, Maria M.

    2013-01-01

    This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through t...

  2. Social media sentiment and consumer confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Piet J.H. Daas; Puts, Marco J.H.

    2014-01-01

    Changes in the sentiment of Dutch public social media messages were compared with changes in monthly consumer confidence over a period of three-and-a-half years, revealing that both were highly correlated (up to r = 0.9) and that both series cointegrated. This phenomenon is predominantly affected by changes in the sentiment of all Dutch public Facebook messages. The inclusion of various selections of public Twitter messages improved this association and the response to changes in sentiment. G...

  3. Self-Confidence and Social Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Roland Benabou; Jean Tirole

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the interactions between an individual's self esteem and his social environment in the workplace, at school, and in personal relationships. Because a person generally has only imperfect knowledge of his own abilities, people who derive benefits from his performance (parent, spouse, friend, teacher, manager, etc.) have incentives to manipulate his self confidence. We first study situations where an informed principal chooses an incentive structure, such as offering payments ...

  4. Confidence Sets for a Change-Point.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-10-01

    probability credible set for j. In fact, even without the explicit evaluation in (1), one knows from a general theorem of Stein (1965) and Hora and...confidence sets with smallest expected measure, Ann. Statist. , 10, 1283-94. Hora , R. B. and Buehler, R. J. (1966), Fiducial theory and invariant...simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem -’-"C with zero -one observations, Biometrika 67, 79-84. Raferty, A. E. and Akman, V

  5. Post-irradiation angiosarcoma of the greater omentum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westenberg, A.H.; Wiggers, T.; Henzen-Logmans, S.C.; Verweij, J.; Meerwaldt, J.A.; Geel, A.N. van (Dr Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center, Rotterdam (Netherlands))

    1989-04-01

    A case of angiosarcoma of the greater omentum is reported. This angiosarcoma developed 8 years after irradiation for cervical carcinoma and presented with an intra-abdominal hemorrhage. The authors describe her clinical course, treatment and follow-up. Although several other locations of irradiation-induced sarcomas have been published, this is the first report in literature of a postirradiation angiosarcoma in the greater omentum. (author).

  6. Post-irradiation angiosarcoma of the greater omentum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westenberg, A H; Wiggers, T; Henzen-Logmans, S C; Verweij, J; Meerwaldt, J A; van Geel, A N

    1989-04-01

    A case of angiosarcoma of the greater omentum is reported. This angiosarcoma developed 8 years after irradiation for cervical carcinoma and presented with an intra-abdominal hemorrhage. We describe her clinical course, treatment and follow-up. Although several other locations of irradiation-induced sarcomas have been published, this is the first report in literature of a postirradiation angiosarcoma in the greater omentum.

  7. Confidence and coverage for Bland-Altman limits of agreement and their approximate confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng

    2016-09-01

    Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96Sd and [Formula: see text]+/- 2Sd). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes. © The Author(s) 2016.

  8. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Preparation for high-acuity clinical placement: confidence levels of final-year nursing students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Porter J

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Joanne Porter, Julia Morphet, Karen Missen, Anita Raymond School of Nursing and Midwifery, Monash University, Churchill, VIC, Australia Aim: To measure final-year nursing students’ preparation for high-acuity placement with emphasis on clinical skill performance confidence. Background: Self-confidence has been reported as being a key component for effective clinical performance, and confident students are more likely to be more effective nurses. Clinical skill performance is reported to be the most influential source of self-confidence. Student preparation and skill acquisition are therefore important aspects in ensuring students have successful clinical placements, especially in areas of high acuity. Curriculum development should aim to assist students with their theoretical and clinical preparedness for the clinical environment. Method: A modified pretest/posttest survey design was used to measure the confidence of third-year undergraduate nursing students (n = 318 for placement into a high-acuity clinical setting. The survey comprised four questions related to clinical placement and prospect of participating in a cardiac arrest scenario, and confidence rating levels of skills related to practice in a high-acuity setting. Content and face validity were established by an expert panel (α = 0.90 and reliability was established by the pilot study in 2009. Comparisons were made between confidence levels at the beginning and end of semester. Results: Student confidence to perform individual clinical skills increased over the semester; however their feelings of preparedness for high-acuity clinical placement decreased over the same time period. Reported confidence levels improved with further exposure to clinical placement. Conclusion: There may be many external factors that influence students’ perceptions of confidence and preparedness for practice. Further research is recommended to identify causes of poor self-confidence in final-year nursing

  10. Grant Monitoring: Department of Education Could Improve Its Processes with Greater Focus on Assessing Risks, Acquiring Financial Skills, and Sharing Information. Report to Congressional Requesters. GAO-10-57

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashby, Cornelia M.

    2009-01-01

    The Department of Education (Education) awards about $45 billion in grants each year to school districts, states, and other entities. In addition, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provided an additional $97 billion in grant funding. In a series of reports from 2002 to 2009, Education's Inspector General cited a number of grantees…

  11. Teaching Evolution to Students with Compromised Backgrounds & Lack of Confidence about Evolution--Is It Possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, Alexandria; Cotner, Sehoya; Moore, Randy

    2014-01-01

    Students regard evolutionary theory differently than science in general. Students' reported confidence in their ability to understand science in general (e.g., posing scientific questions, interpreting tables and graphs, and understanding the content of their biology course) significantly outweighed their confidence in understanding evolution. We…

  12. Teaching Evolution to Students with Compromised Backgrounds & Lack of Confidence about Evolution--Is It Possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, Alexandria; Cotner, Sehoya; Moore, Randy

    2014-01-01

    Students regard evolutionary theory differently than science in general. Students' reported confidence in their ability to understand science in general (e.g., posing scientific questions, interpreting tables and graphs, and understanding the content of their biology course) significantly outweighed their confidence in understanding evolution. We…

  13. Does Classroom Management Coursework Influence Pre-service Teachers' Perceived Preparedness or Confidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Sue; Stephenson, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    There has been conjecture that completing focused coursework units on classroom management during pre-service teacher preparation might lead to increased feelings of preparedness and confidence. This study reports the preparedness in managing specific problem behaviours, familiarity, and confidence in using management strategies and models of…

  14. Does Classroom Management Coursework Influence Pre-service Teachers' Perceived Preparedness or Confidence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Sue; Stephenson, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    There has been conjecture that completing focused coursework units on classroom management during pre-service teacher preparation might lead to increased feelings of preparedness and confidence. This study reports the preparedness in managing specific problem behaviours, familiarity, and confidence in using management strategies and models of…

  15. Method Based on Confidence Radius to Adjust the Location of Mobile Terminals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    García-Fernández, Juan Antonio; Jurado-Navas, Antonio; Fernández-Navarro, Mariano

    2017-01-01

    of the geographical positions associated to all reported mobile terminals will be remarkable improved independent on the geolocation technique employed. The proposed method will move each position estimate towards a previously calculated area of confidence in a smart manner. This reduced area of confidence...

  16. Teaching Evolution to Students with Compromised Backgrounds & Lack of Confidence about Evolution--Is It Possible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schauer, Alexandria; Cotner, Sehoya; Moore, Randy

    2014-01-01

    Students regard evolutionary theory differently than science in general. Students' reported confidence in their ability to understand science in general (e.g., posing scientific questions, interpreting tables and graphs, and understanding the content of their biology course) significantly outweighed their confidence in understanding…

  17. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new longitu

  18. The relationship between confidence in charitable organizations and volunteering revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekkers, René H.F.P.; Bowman, Woods

    2009-01-01

    Confidence in charitable organizations (charitable confidence) would seem to be an important prerequisite for philanthropic behavior. Previous research relying on cross-sectional data has suggested that volunteering promotes charitable confidence and vice versa. This research note, using new

  19. Medical students as EMTs: skill building, confidence and professional formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Kwiatkowski

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The first course of the medical curriculum at the Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine, From the Person to the Professional: Challenges, Privileges and Responsibilities, provides an innovative early clinical immersion. The course content specific to the Emergency Medical Technician (EMT curriculum was developed using the New York State Emergency Medical Technician curriculum. Students gain early legitimate clinical experience and practice clinical skills as team members in the pre-hospital environment. We hypothesized this novel curriculum would increase students’ confidence in their ability to perform patient care skills and enhance students’ comfort with team-building skills early in their training. Methods: Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from first-year medical students (n=97 through a survey developed to assess students’ confidence in patient care and team-building skills. The survey was completed prior to medical school, during the final week of the course, and at the end of their first year. A paired-samples t-test was conducted to compare self-ratings on 12 patient care and 12 team-building skills before and after the course, and a theme analysis was conducted to examine open-ended responses. Results: Following the course, student confidence in patient care skills showed a significant increase from baseline (p<0.05 for all identified skills. Student confidence in team-building skills showed a significant increase (p<0.05 in 4 of the 12 identified skills. By the end of the first year, 84% of the first-year students reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their patient care skills, while 72% reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their team-building skills. Conclusions: The incorporation of EMT training early in a medical school curriculum provides students with meaningful clinical experiences that increase their self-reported

  20. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  1. Asymptotically Honest Confidence Regions for High Dimensional

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caner, Mehmet; Kock, Anders Bredahl

    While variable selection and oracle inequalities for the estimation and prediction error have received considerable attention in the literature on high-dimensional models, very little work has been done in the area of testing and construction of confidence bands in high-dimensional models. However...... develop an oracle inequality for the conservative Lasso only assuming the existence of a certain number of moments. This is done by means of the Marcinkiewicz-Zygmund inequality which in our context provides sharper bounds than Nemirovski's inequality. As opposed to van de Geer et al. (2014) we allow...

  2. Independent Neural Computation of Value from Other People's Confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell-Meiklejohn, Daniel; Simonsen, Arndis; Frith, Chris D; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2017-01-18

    Expectation of reward can be shaped by the observation of actions and expressions of other people in one's environment. A person's apparent confidence in the likely reward of an action, for instance, makes qualities of their evidence, not observed directly, socially accessible. This strategy is computationally distinguished from associative learning methods that rely on direct observation, by its use of inference from indirect evidence. In twenty-three healthy human subjects, we isolated effects of first-hand experience, other people's choices, and the mediating effect of their confidence, on decision-making and neural correlates of value within ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Value derived from first-hand experience and other people's choices (regardless of confidence) were indiscriminately represented across vmPFC. However, value computed from agent choices weighted by their associated confidence was represented with specificity for ventromedial area 10. This pattern corresponds to shifts of connectivity and overlapping cognitive processes along a posterior-anterior vmPFC axis. Task behavior and self-reported self-reliance for decision-making in other social contexts correlated. The tendency to conform in other social contexts corresponded to increased activation in cortical regions previously shown to respond to social conflict in proportion to subsequent conformity (Campbell-Meiklejohn et al., 2010). The tendency to self-monitor predicted a selectively enhanced response to accordance with others in the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ). The findings anatomically decompose vmPFC value representations according to computational requirements and provide biological insight into the social transmission of preference and reassurance gained from the confidence of others. Decades of research have provided evidence that the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) signals the satisfaction we expect from imminent actions. However, we have a surprisingly modest

  3. Metacognition and Confidence: Comparing Math to Other Academic Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanna eErickson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  4. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  5. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  6. Breastfeeding Knowledge, Confidence, Beliefs, and Attitudes of Canadian Physicians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pound, Catherine M; Williams, Kathryn; Grenon, Renee; Aglipay, Mary; Plint, Amy C

    2014-08-01

    Physicians' attitudes and recommendations directly affect breastfeeding duration. Yet, studies in many nations have shown that physicians lack the skills to offer proper guidance to breastfeeding mothers. This study aims to assess breastfeeding knowledge, confidence, beliefs, and attitudes of Canadian physicians. A breastfeeding questionnaire was developed and piloted prior to study enrollment. These questionnaires were sent to 1429 pediatricians (PED), 1329 family physicians (FP), and final-year pediatric and final-year family medicine residents (PR and FMR). The analysis included 397 PED, 322 FP, 17 PR, and 44 FMR who completed the questionnaire. Mean overall correct knowledge score was 67.8% for PED, 64.3% for FP, 72.7% for PR, and 66.8% for FMR. Two hundred eighty-five PED (74.2%), 228 FP (73.1%), 7 PR (41.2%), and 21 FMR (53.8%) felt confident with their breastfeeding counseling skills. Less than half (49.6% of PED and 45.4% of FP) believed that evaluating breastfeeding was a primary care physician's responsibility, and few PED or FP (5.1% and 11.3%) routinely observed breastfeeding in mother-infant pairs. Several areas of potential deficits were identified in Canadian physicians' breastfeeding knowledge. Physicians would benefit from greater education and support, to optimize care of infants and their mothers. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Téllez A.

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

  8. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  9. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  10. Confidence assessment. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-09-15

    The objective of this report is to assess the confidence that can be placed in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the information available at the conclusion of the surface-based investigations (SDM-Site Forsmark). In this exploration, an overriding question is whether remaining uncertainties are significant for repository engineering design or long-term safety assessment and could successfully be further reduced by more surface based investigations or more usefully by explorations underground made during construction of the repository. The confidence in the Forsmark site descriptive model, based on the data available at the conclusion of the surface-based site investigations, have been assessed by exploring: Confidence in the site characterisation data base; Key remaining issues and their handling; Handling of alternative models; Consistency between disciplines; and, Main reasons for confidence and lack of confidence in the model. It is generally found that the key aspects of importance for safety assessment and repository engineering of the Forsmark site descriptive model are associated with a high degree of confidence. Because of the robust geological model that describes the site, the overall confidence in Forsmark site descriptive model is judged to be high. While some aspects have lower confidence this lack of confidence is handled by providing wider uncertainty ranges, bounding estimates and/or alternative models. Most, but not all, of the low confidence aspects have little impact on repository engineering design or for long-term safety. Poor precision in the measured data are judged to have limited impact on uncertainties on the site descriptive model, with the exceptions of inaccuracy in determining the position of some boreholes at depth in 3-D space, as well as the poor precision of the orientation of BIPS images in some boreholes, and the poor precision of stress data determined by overcoring at the locations where the pre

  11. Greater Celandine hepatotoxicity: a clinical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teschke, Rolf; Frenzel, Christian; Glass, Xaver; Schulze, Johannes; Eickhoff, Axel

    2012-01-01

    Herbal hepatotoxicity is a rare and poorly described disease because reported cases are mostly scattered and lack an appropriate causality assessment. We now describe in detail the clinical picture of herbal hepatotoxicity by extracts of Greater Celandine (GC), syn. Chelidonium majus L. from the Papaveraceae family, which contain more than 20 ingredients including various biologically active isoquinoline alkaloids. For this purpose, we analyzed and reviewed published cases of 16 patients from various European countries. In all patients, herbal hepatotoxicity was of probable and highly probable causality for GC, using the original and updated scale of CIOMS (Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences). GC associated hepatotoxicity usually has an acute clinical course exhibiting a hepatocellular pattern of injury and is correlated to an idiosyncratic reaction with its metabolic subtype. Jaundice combined with high values of serum aminotransferases was present in virtually all cases with favourable outcome despite severe clinical course. In conclusion, GC hepatotoxicity is a typical herbal hepatotoxicity with a sound causality track for GC, but there is uncertainty regarding the respective causative compound(s). The present detailed review of GC hepatotoxicity may serve as an example for clinical causality assessments of future cases of liver injury due to other herbs.

  12. AFSC/RACE/GAP/Orr: Bering Sea Slope groundfish surveys Identification Confidence

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report includes an identification confidence matrix for all fishes and invertebrates identified from the EBS slope triennial and biennial surveys from 1976...

  13. AFSC/RACE/GAP/Orr: Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands groundfish surveys Identification Confidence

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This report includes an identification confidence matrix for all fishes and invertebrates identified from the GOA and AI surveys from 1980 through 2011. The matrix...

  14. Measurement of confidence: the development and psychometric evaluation of a stroke-specific, measure of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jane C; Lincoln, Nadina B; Logan, Pip A

    2017-04-01

    To design, develop and psychometrically evaluate a stroke-specific measure of confidence, the Confidence after Stroke Measure (CaSM). Cross-sectional. Adults in the community. Stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants. Questionnaire items were generated based on the literature and qualitative interviews and piloted with expert groups to establish face validity. A 53-item CaSM was administered to stroke survivors and healthy elderly participants in the community. A second copy was posted four weeks later. Completed questionnaires were analysed for extreme responses, missing values, construct validity (factor analysis), convergent validity, divergent validity, reliability (internal consistency and temporal stability) and comparing responses according to age and gender. Stroke ( n = 101) and healthy elderly participants ( n = 101) returned questionnaires. Eight items were removed that had extreme responses and large numbers of missing values. Six items had item total correlations Confidence, Positive Attitude and Social Confidence, which explained 52% of variance. Cronbach's alpha coefficient demonstrated good internal consistency ( α = 0.94). A test re-test on the 27 items indicated good temporal stability ( r = 0.85, P = 0.001). The 27-item CaSM was a valid and reliable measure for assessing confidence in stroke survivors.

  15. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  16. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  17. Mediated Sources of Public Confidence: Lazarsfeld and Merton Revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Peter

    1999-01-01

    Contributes to scholarship on mass media's role in generating public confidence. Discusses the current crisis of confidence, confidence as "faith-together," varied routes by which media confer status, and ways both journalistic expose and public debate can generate cynicism and undercut public confidence. Sketches three types of civil…

  18. Effects of a Provincial-Wide Implementation of Screening for Distress on Healthcare Professionals' Confidence and Understanding of Person-Centered Care in Oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamagawa, Rie; Groff, Shannon; Anderson, Jennifer; Champ, Sarah; Deiure, Andrea; Looyis, Jennifer; Faris, Peter; Watson, Linda

    2016-10-01

    Although published studies report that screening for distress (SFD) improves the quality of care for patients with cancer, little is known about how SFD impacts healthcare professionals (HCPs). This quality improvement project examined the impact of implementing the SFD intervention on HCPs' confidence in addressing patient distress and awareness of person-centered care. This project involved pre-evaluation and post-evaluation of the impact of implementing SFD. A total of 254 HCPs (cohort 1) were recruited from 17 facilities across the province to complete questionnaires. SFD was then implemented at all cancer care facilities over a 10-month implementation period, after which 157 HCPs (cohort 2) completed post-implementation questionnaires. At regional and community care centers, navigators supported the integration of SFD into routine practice; therefore, the impact of navigators was examined. HCPs in cohort 2 reported significantly greater confidence in managing patients' distress and greater awareness about person-centered care relative to HCPs in cohort 1. HCPs at regional and community sites reported greater awareness in person-centeredness before and after the intervention, and reported fewer negative impacts of SFD relative to HCPs at tertiary sites. Caring for single or multiple tumor types was an effect modifier, with effects observed only in the HCPs treating multiple tumors. Implementation of SFD was beneficial for HCPs' confidence and awareness of person-centeredness. Factors comprising different models of care, such as having site-based navigators and caring for single or multiple tumors, influenced outcomes. Copyright © 2016 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

  19. University Science Partnerships: What Happens to STEM Interest and Confidence in Middle School and Beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent R. Genareo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Increased demand for qualified students interested in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM has created a push for greater and more authentic exposure to STEM topics among K-12 students. University science partnerships have been shown to be effective at increasing high school students’ interest and confidence in STEM fields. However, little research to date has explored the effects of these partnerships on students beyond the initial program. This study explored STEM interest and confidence in 322 middle school students involved in a GK-12 program before and immediately after the program, then followed up with the students again in high school. Results indicated that students experienced slight losses in areas of STEM interest and confidence during the program, but greater, significant losses occurred after middle school. Male and female students, however, demonstrated a narrowing STEM aspiration gender gap by high school. Implications for university partnership programs are discussed.

  20. Confidence Crisis Among General Surgery Residents: A Systematic Review and Qualitative Discourse Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfenbein, Dawn M

    2016-12-01

    In the surgical community, there is concern that general surgery residents are choosing subspecialty training in large numbers because of a crisis in confidence at the end of training. Confidence is an essential quality of surgeons, and recent studies have attempted to quantify and measure it in graduating general surgery residents. To systematically review the quality of evidence provided and to critically analyze the language used to describe the findings using quantitative methods. A systematic review of the PubMed indexed literature on general surgery resident confidence was performed in March 2015. A summative table of each study's hypothesis, definition of confidence, quality using the Medical Education Research Study Quality Instrument, influence using Web of Science citations, results, and conclusions was created, and qualitative coding was applied to identify emerging themes. No date restrictions were used in the search. Fifteen survey studies have been performed that measure confidence or readiness to practice. Although 5 studies had neutral or positive conclusions, most studies reported low confidence in general surgery graduates. There are conflicting data about definitions of confidence. The relationships between confidence, autonomy, and competence are varied and complex. Comparisons with the past are frequent. Confidence is difficult to define and measure. Despite limitations, survey studies are used to shape discourse and influence policies. Social and cultural factors influence self-efficacy, and focusing on operative volume and autonomy alone may not address all of the reasons that some residents express concerns about readiness to practice.

  1. Unbounded evidence accumulation characterizes subjective visual vertical (SVV) forced-choice perceptual choice and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Koeun; Wang, Wei; Merfeld, Daniel M

    2017-07-26

    Humans can subjectively yet quantitatively assess choice confidence based on perceptual precision even when a perceptual decision is made without an immediate reward or feedback. However, surprisingly little is known about choice confidence. Here we investigate the dynamics of choice confidence by merging two parallel conceptual frameworks of decision-making, signal detection theory and sequential analyses (i.e., drift diffusion modeling). Specifically, in order to capture end-point statistics of binary choice and confidence, we built on a previous study that defined choice confidence in terms of psychophysics derived from signal detection theory. At the same time, we augmented this mathematical model to include accumulator dynamics of a drift-diffusion model to characterize the time-dependency of the choice behaviors in a standard forced-choice paradigm in which stimulus duration is controlled by the operator. Human subjects performed a subjective visual vertical task, simultaneously reporting binary orientation choice and probabilistic confidence. Both binary choice and confidence experimental data displayed statistics and dynamics consistent with both signal detection theory and evidence accumulation, respectively. Specifically, the computational simulations showed that the unbounded evidence accumulator model fits the confidence data better than the classical bounded model, while bounded and unbounded models were indistinguishable for binary choice data. These results suggest that the brain can utilize mechanisms consistent with signal detection theory - especially when judging confidence without time pressure. Copyright © 2017, Journal of Neurophysiology.

  2. Spurious Consensus and Opinion Revision: Why Might People Be More Confident in Their Less Accurate Judgments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaniv, Ilan; Choshen-Hillel, Shoham; Milyavsky, Maxim

    2009-01-01

    In the interest of improving their decision making, individuals revise their opinions on the basis of samples of opinions obtained from others. However, such a revision process may lead decision makers to experience greater confidence in their less accurate judgments. The authors theorize that people tend to underestimate the informative value of…

  3. Confidence intervals for annual wind power production******

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bensoussan Alain

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind power is an intermittent resource due to wind speed intermittency. However wind speed can be described as a stochastic process with short memory. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for the annual or pluri-annual wind power production and then get quantiles of the wind power production for one, ten or twenty years future periods. On the one hand, the interquantile spread offers a measurement of the intrinsic uncertainties of wind power production. On the other hand, different quantiles with different periods of time are used by financial institutions to quantify the financial risk of the wind turbine. Our method is then applied to real datasets corresponding to a French wind turbine. Since confidence intervals can be enhanced by taking into account seasonality, we present some tools for change point analysis on wind series.

  4. Setting confidence intervals in coincidence search analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Baggio, L; Baggio, Lucio; Prodi, Giovanni A.

    2003-01-01

    The main technique that has been used to estimate the rate of gravitational wave (gw) bursts is to search for coincidence among times of arrival of candidate events in different detectors. Coincidences are modeled as a (possibly non-stationary) random time series background with gw events embedded in it, at random times but constant average rate. It is critical to test whether the statistics of the coincidence counts is Poisson, because the counts in a single detector often are not. At some point a number of parameters are tuned to increase the chance of detection by reducing the expected background: source direction, epoch vetoes based on sensitivity, goodness-of-fit thresholds, etc. Therefore, the significance of the confidence intervals itself has to be renormalized. This review is an insight of the state-of-the-art methods employed in the recent search performed by the International Gravitational Event Collaboration for the worldwide network of resonant bar detectors.

  5. Implementing video cases in clinical paediatric teaching increases medical students' self-assessed confidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malon, Michelle; Cortes, Dina; Andersen, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    having seen a child with asthma in the daily clinic. In contrast, respiratory syncytial virus infection was only seen by 20%. Students' self-reported confidence in the assessment of paediatric patients increased after the video case library was made available: Before the intervention, 41% (57....../138) of the students reported confidence at a score of 5-7 on a seven-point Likert scale. This increased to 64% (186/289) (p

  6. Confidence sets for optimal factor levels of a response surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Fang; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Han, Yang

    2016-12-01

    Construction of confidence sets for the optimal factor levels is an important topic in response surfaces methodology. In Wan et al. (2015), an exact (1-α) confidence set has been provided for a maximum or minimum point (i.e., an optimal factor level) of a univariate polynomial function in a given interval. In this article, the method has been extended to construct an exact (1-α) confidence set for the optimal factor levels of response surfaces. The construction method is readily applied to many parametric and semiparametric regression models involving a quadratic function. A conservative confidence set has been provided as an intermediate step in the construction of the exact confidence set. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the confidence sets. The comparison between confidence sets indicates that our exact confidence set is better than the only other confidence set available in the statistical literature that guarantees the (1-α) confidence level. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  7. Fusing photovoltaic data for improved confidence intervals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ansgar Steland

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Characterizing and testing photovoltaic modules requires carefully made measurements on important variables such as the power output under standard conditions. When additional data is available, which has been collected using a different measurement system and therefore may be of different accuracy, the question arises how one can combine the information present in both data sets. In some cases one even has prior knowledge about the ordering of the variances of the measurement errors, which is not fully taken into account by commonly known estimators. We discuss several statistical estimators to combine the sample means of independent series of measurements, both under the assumption of heterogeneous variances and ordered variances. The critical issue is then to assess the estimator’s variance and to construct confidence intervals. We propose and discuss the application of a new jackknife variance estimator devised by [1] to such photovoltaic data, in order to assess the variability of common mean estimation under heterogeneous and ordered variances in a reliable and nonparametric way. When serial correlations are present, which usually a ect the marginal variances, it is proposed to construct a thinned data set by downsampling the series in such a way that autocorrelations are removed or dampened. We propose a data adaptive procedure which downsamples a series at irregularly spaced time points in such a way that the autocorrelations are minimized. The procedures are illustrated by applying them to real photovoltaic power output measurements from two different sun light flashers. In addition, focusing on simulations governed by real photovoltaic data, we investigate the accuracy of the jackknife approach and compare it with other approaches. Among those is a variance estimator based on Nair’s formula for Gaussian data and, as a parametric alternative, two Bayesian models. We investigate the statistical accuracy of the resulting confidence

  8. Greater Trochanteric Pain Syndrome in general Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Brinks (Tineke)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis focuses on patients with greater trochanteric pain syndrome. These patients suffer from local pain at the lateral side of the hip. The syndrome is characterized by chronic intermittent or continuous pain at and around the greater trochanter, sometimes radiating to the lateral

  9. Greater happiness for a greater number: is that possible and desirable?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractGREATER HAPPINESS FOR A GREATER NUMBER: IS THAT POSSIBLE AND DESIRABLE? Utilitarian philosophy holds that public policy should aim at greater happiness for a greater number of people. This moral tenet meets many objections, on pragmatic grounds it is denounced as unfeasible and on ideolo

  10. Greater happiness for a greater number: is that possible and desirable?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractGREATER HAPPINESS FOR A GREATER NUMBER: IS THAT POSSIBLE AND DESIRABLE? Utilitarian philosophy holds that public policy should aim at greater happiness for a greater number of people. This moral tenet meets many objections, on pragmatic grounds it is denounced as unfeasible and on

  11. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of

  12. Eyewitness confidence : the relation between accuracy and confidence in episodic memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Odinot, Geralda

    2008-01-01

    Many decisions in the legal system are based on eyewitness evidence. It seems to be a matter of common sense that the level of confidence expressed by a witness can be used as a diagnostic tool to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate memories. Contrary to this general belief, the bulk of emp

  13. Confidence intervals make a difference : Effects of showing confidence intervals on inferential reasoning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting result

  14. Evaluation of undergraduate nursing students' clinical confidence following a mental health recovery camp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowley, Thomas; Sumskis, Sue; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie; Brighton, Renee; Patterson, Chris; Halcomb, Elizabeth

    2016-02-01

    In the present study, we evaluate the impact of participation in a mental health recovery camp on the clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students in dealing with individuals with mental illness. Twenty undergraduate nursing students who participated in the recovery camp completed the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale both before and directly after attending the camp. Data were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Participation in the recovery camp was associated with a statistically-significant increase in students' level of overall confidence between the pretest and post-test data (P students over the age of 25 years and who do not have a family history of mental illness are more likely to self-report a higher level of confidence in both the pre- and post-results. The clinical confidence of undergraduate nursing students improved through participation in an immersive clinical experience within the recovery camp.

  15. Increased student self-confidence in clinical reasoning skills associated with case-based learning (CBL).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Jon S

    2006-01-01

    Second-year veterinary students were surveyed at the beginning and end of a 15-week semester regarding their confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills: (1) making Problem Lists; (2) making Rule-Out Lists; and (3) selecting appropriate diagnostic tests. Each week during the semester, these skills were practiced in small-group case discussions. Changes in self-confidence were analyzed and studied in light of faculty assessments of student competence in performance of the three skills. The purpose of the study was to determine if students' self-confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills increased with practice. On the first and last days of class, students rated their confidence in each of the three skills on a scale of 0 to 10. Mean confidence scores for the whole class both for time points and for each of the three skills were analyzed. There were significant increases in students' self-confidence in all three clinical reasoning skills over the semester each year. A greater percentage of students expressed improved confidence in selecting appropriate diagnostic tests than in the other two skills in three of the four years studied. Students' self-confidence in performing three clinical reasoning skills improved over the course of a semester in which they practiced the skills in a CBL format. Subjective faculty assessment of students' competence in these skills generally indicated improvement. However, no meaningful conclusions about the correlation of skill competence and student confidence could be drawn because of inadequacies in the measurement of student performance.

  16. Exhibitors: Full of Confidence Adequate Preparation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    From March 26th,three most important trade fairs for Chinese textile industry opened successively inBeijing.Several exhibitors showed their confidence and preparation to TA Weekly. Bosideng:CHIC is an everlasting marketing chance"We’ll definitely participate in CHIC 2009,with even moreinvestment."Gao Dekang,the President of Bosideng Co.,Ltd said,"Bosideng is going to make full use of this trade fair for furtherdevelopment."According to the organizer of CHIC 2009,Bosidengreserved 1000 square meters for its show."CHIC witnessed the blooming development of Chinese clothingindustry for the last ten years.CHIC has made a progress to catch upwith the world trend as well as in the social influence.It has becomethe pioneer of fashion and is regarded as the releasing center,innovation center and brand center."As a long-term participant,Bosideng has the right to say these words.It is in this fair,Bosideng

  17. Comparison of health confidence in rural, suburban and urban areas in the UK and the USA: a secondary analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Haven, Kristen; Celaya, Martín F; Pierson, Jaclyn; Weisskopf, Aron J; MacKinnon, Neil J

    2013-01-01

    Objective Confidence in healthcare may influence the patients’ utilisation of healthcare resources and perceptions of healthcare quality. We sought to determine whether self-reported confidence in healthcare differed between the UK and the USA, as well as by rurality or urbanicity. Design A secondary analysis of a subset of survey questions regarding self-reported confidence in healthcare from the 2010 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey. Setting Telephone survey of participa...

  18. Country Report on China's Participation in Greater Mekong Subregion Cooperation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    1.Executive SummaryThe Mekong River,which originates from the Danggula Mountain Range on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China and runs 4,880 km southward through six countries,namely,China,Myartmar,Laos,Thailand,Cambodia and Viet Nam,is an important transnational river in Asia and even the world.The section in China is called the Lancang River.Since the 1990s,the international cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong subregiun has received wide attention from the international community.Related countries and intemational organizations have carried out extensive cooperation,which has produced good results and forcefully facilitated economic and social development of the subregion.

  19. Confidence Intervals from Normalized Data: A correction to Cousineau (2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard D. Morey

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Presenting confidence intervals around means is a common method of expressing uncertainty in data. Loftus and Masson (1994 describe confidence intervals for means in within-subjects designs. These confidence intervals are based on the ANOVA mean squared error. Cousineau (2005 presents an alternative to the Loftus and Masson method, but his method produces confidence intervals that are smaller than those of Loftus and Masson. I show why this is the case and offer a simple correction that makes the expected size of Cousineau confidence intervals the same as that of Loftus and Masson confidence intervals.

  20. Bayesian estimation of keyword confidence in Chinese continuous speech recognition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HAO Jie; LI Xing

    2003-01-01

    In a syllable-based speaker-independent Chinese continuous speech recognition system based on classical Hidden Markov Model (HMM), a Bayesian approach of keyword confidence estimation is studied, which utilizes both acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) score. The Maximum a posteriori (MAP) confidence measure is proposed, and the forward-backward algorithm calculating the MAP confidence scores is deduced. The performance of the MAP confidence measure is evaluated in keyword spotting application and the experiment results show that the MAP confidence scores provide high discriminability for keyword candidates. Furthermore, the MAP confidence measure can be applied to various speech recognition applications.

  1. Is social support associated with greater weight loss after bariatric surgery?: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livhits, M; Mercado, C; Yermilov, I; Parikh, J A; Dutson, E; Mehran, A; Ko, C Y; Shekelle, P G; Gibbons, M M

    2011-02-01

    Social support may be associated with increased weight loss after bariatric surgery. The objective of this article is to determine impact of post-operative support groups and other forms of social support on weight loss after bariatric surgery. MEDLINE search (1988-2009) was completed using MeSH terms including bariatric procedures and a spectrum of patient factors with potential relationship to weight loss outcomes. Of the 934 screened studies, 10 reported on social support and weight loss outcomes. Five studies reported on support groups and five studies reported on other forms of social support (such as perceived family support or number of confidants) and degree of post-operative weight loss (total n = 735 patients). All studies found a positive association between post-operative support groups and weight loss. One study found a positive association between marital status (being single) and weight loss, while three studies found a non-significant positive trend and one study was inconclusive. Support group attendance after bariatric surgery is associated with greater post-operative weight loss. Further research is necessary to determine the impact of other forms of social support. These factors should be addressed in prospective studies of weight loss following bariatric surgery, as they may represent ways to improve post-operative outcomes. © 2010 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2010 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

  2. Possible effects of elk harvest on fall distribution of grizzly bears in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haroldson, M.A.; Schwartz, C.C.; Cherry, S.; Moody, D.

    2004-01-01

     The tradition of early elk (Cervus elaphus) hunting seasons adjacent to Yellowstone National Park (YNP), USA, provides grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) with ungulate remains left by hunters. We investigated the fall (Aug–Oct) distribution of grizzly bears relative to the boundaries of YNP and the opening of September elk hunting seasons. Based on results from exact tests of conditional independence, we estimated the odds of radiomarked bears being outside YNP during the elk hunt versus before the hunt. Along the northern boundary, bears were 2.40 times more likely to be outside YNP during the hunt in good whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) seed-crop years and 2.72 times more likely in poor seed-crop years. The level of confidence associated with 1-sided confidence intervals with a lower endpoint of 1 was approximately 94% in good seed-crop years and 61% in poor years. Along the southern boundary of YNP, radiomarked bears were 2.32 times more likely to be outside the park during the hunt in good whitebark pine seed-crop years and 4.35 times more likely in poor seed-crop years. The level of confidence associated with 1-sided confidence intervals with a lower endpoint of 1 was approximately 93% in both cases. Increased seasonal bear densities and human presence in early hunt units increases potential for conflicts between bears and hunters. Numbers of reported hunting-related grizzly bear mortalities have increased in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) during the last decade, and nearly half of this increase is due to bear deaths occurring in early hunt units during September. Human-caused grizzly bear mortality thresholds established by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) have not been exceeded in recent years. This is because agency actions have reduced other sources of human-caused mortalities, and because population parameters that mortality thresholds are based on have increased. Agencies must continue to monitor and manage hunter

  3. Believing in "us": exploring leaders' capacity to enhance team confidence and performance by building a sense of shared social identity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Haslam, S Alexander; Steffens, Niklas K; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Boen, Filip

    2015-03-01

    The present study examined the impact of athlete leaders' perceived confidence on their teammates' confidence and performance. Male basketball players (N = 102) participated in groups of 4. To manipulate leaders' team confidence, the appointed athlete leader of each newly formed basketball team (a confederate) expressed either high or low team confidence. The results revealed an effect of team confidence contagion such that team members had greater team confidence when the leader expressed high (rather than low) confidence in the team's success. Second, the present study sought to explain the mechanisms through which this contagion occurs. In line with the social identity approach to leadership, structural equation modeling demonstrated that this effect was partially mediated by team members' increased team identification. Third, findings indicated that when leaders expressed high team confidence, team members' performance increased during the test, but when leaders expressed low confidence, team members' performance decreased. Athlete leaders thus have the capacity to shape team members' confidence--and hence their performance--in both positive and negative ways. In particular, by showing that they believe in "our team," leaders are able not only to make "us" a psychological reality, but also to transform "us" into an effective operational unit. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  4. The Effects of the Relaxation Response on Nurses' Level of Anxiety, Depression, Well-Being, Work-Related Stress, and Confidence to Teach Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder Calisi, Catherine

    2017-07-01

    The purpose of this pilot study was threefold: to teach nurses the Relaxation Response ( RR), a relaxation technique created by Benson; to measure the effects of the RR on nurses' levels of anxiety, depression, well-being, and work-related stress; and to explore nurses' confidence in teaching their patients the RR. A wait-list, randomized-control quantitative study design was used. Nurses in the intervention group were trained on the benefits and the technique of the RR and were then asked to practice the RR over an 8-week period. No statistical significance was found in nurses' reported level of anxiety, depression, well-being, and work-related stress. However, the nurses reported greater confidence in teaching this technique to patients ( p < .001). As a strategy for self-care in the workplace, nurses were receptive to learning the RR and reported confidence in using this strategy for their patients. Larger studies may reveal more significant reductions in workplace stress and anxiety for nurses.

  5. CRISIS FOCUS Fundamentals,Confidence and Policy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Entering the third year of the most serious economic crisis since the Great Depression, the world economy is still bogged down on the muddy road to recovery. The latest edition of Standard Chartered Bank’s monthly report, Global Focus,

  6. Errors and Predictors of Confidence in Condom Use amongst Young Australians Attending a Music Festival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina M. Hall

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. To determine the confidence and ability to use condoms correctly and consistently and the predictors of confidence in young Australians attending a festival. Methods. 288 young people aged 18 to 29 attending a mixed-genre music festival completed a survey measuring demographics, self-reported confidence using condoms, ability to use condoms, and issues experienced when using condoms in the past 12 months. Results. Self-reported confidence using condoms was high (77%. Multivariate analyses showed confidence was associated with being male (P<0.001 and having had five or more lifetime sexual partners (P=0.038. Reading packet instructions was associated with increased condom use confidence (P=0.011. Amongst participants who had used a condom in the last year, 37% had experienced the condom breaking and 48% had experienced the condom slipping off during intercourse and 51% when withdrawing the penis after sex. Conclusion. This population of young people are experiencing high rates of condom failures and are using them inconsistently or incorrectly, demonstrating the need to improve attitudes, behaviour, and knowledge about correct and consistent condom usage. There is a need to empower young Australians, particularly females, with knowledge and confidence in order to improve condom use self-efficacy.

  7. Hailstones across the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Rasuly

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the recent climatology of hail occurrence in the Greater Metropolitan Severe Thunderstorm Warning Area (GMSTWA of New South Wales, Australia, which is a sprawling suburban area, with a population of nearly 4.7 million and one of Australia's largest metropolis. The main objective is to highlight the recent temporal-spatial fluctuations of hailstone frequencies and magnitudes for each of recognized and vastly inhabited Local Government Areas (LGAs. The relevant hail event data from 1989 to 2013 were initially derived from the severe storm archive of Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A climatologically oriented GIS technique was applied in the examining and mapping procedure of all hail events and hail days reported throughout the study area. By applying a specific criterion, all severe hails (defined as 2 cm or more in diameter were cautiously selected and then imported into the ArcGIS software for relevant analysis. Appropriate data layers were stored in a unique database to allow logical integration of the data directly into some geoprocessing functions, mainly for querying, analyzing and mapping purposes in a model-builder setting. The database includes 357 hailstones with sizes 2–11 cm and occurred in 169 hail days across the region during the past 25 years. The models have established that hailstones are neither temporally nor spatially uniform in magnitude throughout the study area. Temporal analysis indicated that most of hail events occurred predominately in the afternoons with peak time of 1–5 p.m. EST. They were particularly common in spring and summer, and reached maximum frequency in November and December. There was an average of 14.3 events each year, but a significant decreasing trend in terms of hail frequency and associated magnitude in the recent years has been identified. In turn, spatial models also established three main distribution patterns over the study area, which include the Sydney Metropolitan

  8. Alternative confidence measure for local matching stereo algorithms

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ndhlovu, T

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available The authors present a confidence measure applied to individual disparity estimates in local matching stereo correspondence algorithms. It aims at identifying textureless areas, where most local matching algorithms fail. The confidence measure works...

  9. The role of confidence in world-class sport performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Kate; Thomas, Owen; Maynard, Ian; Bawden, Mark

    2009-09-01

    In this study, we examined the role of confidence in relation to the cognitive, affective, and behavioural responses it elicits, and identified the factors responsible for debilitating confidence within the organizational subculture of world-class sport. Using Vealey's (2001) integrative model of sport confidence as a broad conceptual base, 14 athletes (7 males, 7 females) were interviewed in response to the research aims. Analysis indicated that high sport confidence facilitated performance through its positive effect on athletes' thoughts, feelings, and behaviours. However, the athletes participating in this study were susceptible to factors that served to debilitate their confidence. These factors appeared to be associated with the sources from which they derived their confidence and influenced to some extent by gender. Thus, the focus of interventions designed to enhance sport confidence must reflect the individual needs of the athlete, and might involve identifying an athlete's sources and types of confidence, and ensuring that these are intact during competition preparation phases.

  10. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-10-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference.

  11. Assessing Residents' Confidence in the Context of Pharmacotherapy Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakofsky, Jeffrey J; Garlow, Steven J; Haroon, Ebrahim; Hermida, Adriana P; Young, John Q; Dunlop, Boadie W

    2017-06-01

    We aimed to determine whether residents' confidence initiating medications increased with the number of times they prescribed individual medications and to quantify the relationship between prescription frequency and gains in confidence. From July 2011 to June 2014, PGY-3 residents completed a survey of confidence levels at their psychopharmacology clinic orientation and then again 12 months later. The Emory Healthcare electronic medical record was used to identify all medications prescribed by each resident during their 12-month rotation and the frequency of these prescriptions. Confidence in initiating treatment with all medicines/medication classes increased over the 12-month period. For three of the medication classes for which residents indicated they were least confident at orientation, the number of prescriptions written during the year was significantly associated with an increase in confidence. Measuring resident confidence is a relevant and achievable outcome and provides data for educators regarding the amount of experience needed to increase confidence.

  12. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904

  13. On the Confidence Interval for the parameter of Poisson Distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Bityukov, S I; Taperechkina, V A

    2000-01-01

    In present paper the possibility of construction of continuous analogue of Poisson distribution with the search of bounds of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution is discussed and the results of numerical construction of confidence intervals are presented.

  14. Consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in internet payments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franc Bračun

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Performing payment transactions over the Internet is becoming increasingly important. Whenever one interacts with others, he or she faces the problem of uncertainty because in interacting with others, one makes him or herself vulnerable, i.e. one can be betrayed. Thus, perceived risk and confidence are of fundamental importance in electronic payment transactions. A higher risk leads to greater hesitance about entering into a business relationship with a high degree of uncertainty; and therefore, to an increased need for confidence. This paper has two objectives. First, it aims to introduce and test a theoretical model that predicts consumer and merchant acceptance of the Internet payment solution by explaining the complex set of relationships among the key factors influencing confidence in electronic payment transactions. Second, the paper attempts to shed light on the complex interrelationship among confidence, control and perceived risk. An empirical study was conducted to test the proposed model using data from consumers and merchants in Slovenia. The results show how perceived risk dimensions and post-transaction control influence consumer’s and merchant’s confidence in electronic payment transactions, and the impact of confidence on the adoption of mass-market on-line payment solutions.

  15. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  16. Calculating and graphing within-subject confidence intervals for ANOVA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baguley, Thom

    2012-03-01

    The psychological and statistical literature contains several proposals for calculating and plotting confidence intervals (CIs) for within-subjects (repeated measures) ANOVA designs. A key distinction is between intervals supporting inference about patterns of means (and differences between pairs of means, in particular) and those supporting inferences about individual means. In this report, it is argued that CIs for the former are best accomplished by adapting intervals proposed by Cousineau (Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 1, 42-45, 2005) and Morey (Tutorials in Quantitative Methods for Psychology, 4, 61-64, 2008) so that nonoverlapping CIs for individual means correspond to a confidence for their difference that does not include zero. CIs for the latter can be accomplished by fitting a multilevel model. In situations in which both types of inference are of interest, the use of a two-tiered CI is recommended. Free, open-source, cross-platform software for such interval estimates and plots (and for some common alternatives) is provided in the form of R functions for one-way within-subjects and two-way mixed ANOVA designs. These functions provide an easy-to-use solution to the difficult problem of calculating and displaying within-subjects CIs.

  17. Activities-Specific Balance Confidence in People with Multiple Sclerosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ylva Nilsagård

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS. Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1–6. Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Gocog, 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to −0.75 with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α=0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  18. Activities-specific balance confidence in people with multiple sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1-6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Go(cog), 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to -0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  19. Generalized confidence interval plots using commands or dialogs

    OpenAIRE

    Roger Newson

    2005-01-01

    Confidence intervals may be presented as publication-ready tables or as presentation-ready plots. -eclplot- produces plots of estimates and confidence intervals. It inputs a dataset (or resultsset) with one observation per parameter and variables containing estimates, lower and upper confidence limits, and a fourth variable, against which the confidence intervals are plotted. This resultsset can be used for producing both plots and tables, and may be generated using a spreadsheet or using -st...

  20. Two-Sided Tests and One-Sided Confidence Bounds

    OpenAIRE

    1994-01-01

    Based on the duality between tests and confidence sets we introduce a new method to derive one-sided confidence bounds following the rejection of a null hypothesis with two-sided alternatives. This method imputes that the experimenter is only interested in confidence bounds if the null hypothesis is rejected. Furthermore, we suppose that he is only interested in the direction and a lower confidence bound concerning the distance of the true parameter value to the parameter values in the null h...

  1. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments Peter H. Feiler Charles B. Weinstock John B. Goodenough...Design 8 2.3 Architecture Fault Modeling and Analysis with EMV2 8 2.4 Confidence Map Concepts and Notation 11 Overview of the Stepper-Motor System...Comparison of the SMS Designs 43 Establishing Confidence in the SMS 45 6.1 Confidence Maps for SMS 45 CMU/SEI-2015-TR-006 | SOFTWARE ENGINEERING

  2. How to Strengthen Child Learners’Self-confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李文敬

    2013-01-01

    Self-confidence is closely related to L2 learning. In order to make their learners enjoy English learning, English teach-ers need to strengthen the learners’English learning confidence. This article is to find out English teachers’role to strengthening learners’self-confidence in ELL by means of class observation. The writer concludes improving speaking ability; giving praise and offering gentle error correcting can help to strengthen the learners’confidence.

  3. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-13

    ...; ] NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 10 CFR Part 51 RIN 3150-AJ20 Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental... Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement,'' that forms the regulatory basis for the proposed... Confidence rule). The NRC staff plans to hold 12 public meetings during the public comment period to present...

  4. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence building...

  5. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no information...

  6. Coverage Accuracy of Confidence Intervals in Nonparametric Regression

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song-xi Chen; Yong-song Qin

    2003-01-01

    Point-wise confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function with random design points are considered. The confidence intervals are those based on the traditional normal approximation and the empirical likelihood. Their coverage accuracy is assessed by developing the Edgeworth expansions for the coverage probabilities. It is shown that the empirical likelihood confidence intervals are Bartlett correctable.

  7. Developing Self-confidence%培养自信心

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Robert Kokoska

    2006-01-01

    @@ Ideally,self-confidence is something you develop early and maintain throughout life. For many of us,though, that just isn't the case-either the process of developing self-confidence is stymied early on,or we lose confidence because of life events.

  8. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  9. Predicting Postfeedback Performance from Students' Confidence in Their Responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Timothy A.

    The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…

  10. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  11. Learning about confidence intervals with software R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gariela Gonçalves

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available 0 0 1 202 1111 USAL 9 2 1311 14.0 Normal 0 21 false false false ES JA X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-ansi-language:ES; mso-fareast-language:EN-US;} This work was to study the feasibility of implementing a teaching method that employs software, in a Computational Mathematics course, involving students and teachers through the use of the statistical software R in carrying out practical work, such as strengthening the traditional teaching. The statistical inference, namely the determination of confidence intervals, was the content selected for this experience. It was intended show, first of all, that it is possible to promote, through the proposal methodology, the acquisition of basic skills in statistical inference and to promote the positive relationships between teachers and students. It presents also a comparative study between the methodologies used and their quantitative and qualitative results on two consecutive school years, in several indicators. The data used in the study were obtained from the students to the exam questions in the years 2010/2011 and 2011/2012, from the achievement of a working group in 2011/2012 and via the responses to a questionnaire (optional and anonymous also applied in 2011 / 2012. In terms of results, we emphasize a better performance of students in the examination questions in 2011/2012, the year that students used the software R, and a very favorable student’s perspective about

  12. Understanding the influences on self-confidence among first-year undergraduate nursing students in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesser-Smyth, Patricia A; Long, Tony

    2013-01-01

    To report a mixed-methods study of the development of self-confidence in Irish nursing students undertaking the first year of an undergraduate nursing programme. Self-confidence underpins nurses' competence to carry out care effectively, yet there is little empirical evidence of how this attribute is fostered in pre-registration preparation. There is an assumption, however, that self-confidence develops independently and spontaneously. A sequential, mixed methods three-phase design was used. The design involved pretest and posttest measurements of self-confidence, focus group interviews, a student self-evaluation questionnaire and analysis of the relevant curriculum content. Data were collected between September 2007-April 2008 and sampling was from three cohorts of students at three different Institutes of Technology in Ireland. Data collection matched the nature of the data, including descriptive, non-inferential statistics and qualitative content analysis. There was considerable variation in the amount and nature of theoretical preparation. Factors in clinical practice exerted the most influence. Self-confidence fluctuated during the first clinical placement and as students' self-confidence developed, simultaneously, motivation towards academic achievement increased. Conversely, self-confidence was quickly eroded by poor preceptor attitudes, lack of communication, and feeling undervalued. The development of self-confidence is complex and multi-factorial. This study offers further understanding of facilitators and barriers that may be relevant elsewhere in promoting student nurses' developing self-confidence. The development of self-confidence must be recognized as a central tenet for the design and delivery of undergraduate programmes. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  13. 新西兰《婴儿和幼儿:自信交流、勇敢探索》报告述评%Review on New Zealand's"Infants and Toddlers:Competent and Confident Communicators and Explorers"Report

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘丽平; 邓雪

    2016-01-01

    In order to get the information of New Zealand's early childhood service's experiences and barriers in supporting infants and toddlers to become competent and confident communicators and explorers, the Education Review Office(ERO) launched education reviews in 235early childhood services during term 1 and 2 of 2014 and released this evaluation report. By introducing excellent experiences for the poor services can enhance the level of whole nation in this field, and lay the founda-tion for the growth of New Zealand's new generation.%为了解新西兰的早教机构在发展婴幼儿交流与探索能力方面所取得的成果与不足之处,新西兰教育审查办公室在2014年1至2学期对235家儿童早教机构进行了实地考察和评估,并发布该审查报告。该报告旨在介绍好的经验为尚存不足的机构提供借鉴,以期使全国的早教机构在发展婴幼儿交流与探索能力方面得到进一步的发展,为新西兰新一代的健康成长奠定基础。

  14. ConfidenceSets for Network Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-01

    David Choi, Patrick Wolfe Harvard University Office of Sponsored Research 1350 Massachusetts Ave. Holyoke 727 Cambridge, MA 02138 - REPORT...hence the identification of residual structure in the corresponding partition. K, and they are comprised of small numbers of students. This effect is due

  15. Cortical alpha activity reflects the degree of confidence in committing to an action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan eKubanek

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject’s confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects’ confidence was independent of the reaction time, of eye movement, and of activity of forearm muscles. Furthermore, the effect was not explained by the sensory input modeled by a decision variable. Neither could the effect be explained by a general cognitive state, such as arousal or reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of its button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the degree of a forming commitment to make a hand movement.

  16. Experiential Education Builds Student Self-Confidence in Delivering Medication Therapy Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wendy M. Parker

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available To determine the impact of advanced pharmacy practice experiences (APPE on student self-confidence related to medication therapy management (MTM, fourth-year pharmacy students were surveyed pre/post APPE to: identify exposure to MTM learning opportunities, assess knowledge of the MTM core components, and assess self-confidence performing MTM services. An anonymous electronic questionnaire administered pre/post APPE captured demographics, factors predicted to impact student self-confidence (Grade point average (GPA, work experience, exposure to MTM learning opportunities, MTM knowledge and self-confidence conducting MTM using a 5-point Likert scale (1 = Not at all Confident; 5 = Extremely Confident. Sixty-two students (26% response rate responded to the pre-APPE questionnaire and n = 44 (18% to the post-APPE. Over 90% demonstrated MTM knowledge and 68.2% completed MTM learning activities. APPE experiences significantly improved students’ overall self-confidence (pre-APPE = 3.27 (0.85 SD, post-APPE = 4.02 (0.88, p < 0.001. Students engaging in MTM learning opportunities had higher self-confidence post-APPE (4.20 (0.71 vs. those not reporting MTM learning opportunities (3.64 (1.08, p = 0.05. Post-APPE, fewer students reported MTM was patient-centric or anticipated engaging in MTM post-graduation. APPE learning opportunities increased student self-confidence to provide MTM services. However, the reduction in anticipated engagement in MTM post-graduation and reduction in sensing the patient-centric nature of MTM practice, may reveal a gap between practice expectations and reality.

  17. Brain networks for confidence weighting and hierarchical inference during probabilistic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2017-05-09

    Learning is difficult when the world fluctuates randomly and ceaselessly. Classical learning algorithms, such as the delta rule with constant learning rate, are not optimal. Mathematically, the optimal learning rule requires weighting prior knowledge and incoming evidence according to their respective reliabilities. This "confidence weighting" implies the maintenance of an accurate estimate of the reliability of what has been learned. Here, using fMRI and an ideal-observer analysis, we demonstrate that the brain's learning algorithm relies on confidence weighting. While in the fMRI scanner, human adults attempted to learn the transition probabilities underlying an auditory or visual sequence, and reported their confidence in those estimates. They knew that these transition probabilities could change simultaneously at unpredicted moments, and therefore that the learning problem was inherently hierarchical. Subjective confidence reports tightly followed the predictions derived from the ideal observer. In particular, subjects managed to attach distinct levels of confidence to each learned transition probability, as required by Bayes-optimal inference. Distinct brain areas tracked the likelihood of new observations given current predictions, and the confidence in those predictions. Both signals were combined in the right inferior frontal gyrus, where they operated in agreement with the confidence-weighting model. This brain region also presented signatures of a hierarchical process that disentangles distinct sources of uncertainty. Together, our results provide evidence that the sense of confidence is an essential ingredient of probabilistic learning in the human brain, and that the right inferior frontal gyrus hosts a confidence-based statistical learning algorithm for auditory and visual sequences.

  18. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  19. Greater Somalia, the never-ending dream?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zoppi, Marco

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an historical analysis of the concept of Greater Somalia, the nationalist project that advocates the political union of all Somali-speaking people, including those inhabiting areas in current Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya. The Somali territorial unification project of “lost ter...

  20. Greater trochanteric fracture with occult intertrochanteric extension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reiter, Michael; O'Brien, Seth D; Bui-Mansfield, Liem T; Alderete, Joseph

    2013-10-01

    Proximal femoral fractures are frequently encountered in the emergency department (ED). Prompt diagnosis is paramount as delay will exacerbate the already poor outcomes associated with these injuries. In cases where radiography is negative but clinical suspicion remains high, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the study of choice as it has the capability to depict fractures which are occult on other imaging modalities. Awareness of a particular subset of proximal femoral fractures, namely greater trochanteric fractures, is vital for both radiologists and clinicians since it has been well documented that they invariably have an intertrochanteric component which may require surgical management. The detection of intertrochanteric or cervical extension of greater trochanteric fractures has been described utilizing MRI but is underestimated with both computed tomography (CT) and bone scan. Therefore, if MRI is unavailable or contraindicated, the diagnosis of an isolated greater trochanteric fracture should be met with caution. The importance of avoiding this potential pitfall is demonstrated in the following case of an elderly woman with hip pain and CT demonstrating an isolated greater trochanteric fracture who subsequently returned to the ED with a displaced intertrochanteric fracture.

  1. Biological stress regulation in female adolescents: a key role for confiding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oskis, Andrea; Clow, Angela; Loveday, Catherine; Hucklebridge, Frank; Sbarra, David A

    2015-05-01

    Attachment behaviors play a critical role in regulating emotion within the context of close relationships, and attachment theory is currently used to inform evidence-based practice in the areas of adolescent health and social care. This study investigated the association between female adolescents' interview-based attachment behaviors and two markers of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activity: cortisol and dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). Unlike the classic stress hormone cortisol, there is very limited investigation of DHEA-a quintessential developmental hormone-in relation to attachment, especially in adolescents. Fifty-five healthy females mean age 14.36 (±2.41) years participated in the attachment style interview. A smaller cortisol awakening response was related to anxious attachment attitudes, including more fear of rejection, whereas greater morning basal DHEA secretion was only predicted by lower levels of reported confiding in one's mother. These attachment-hormone relationships may be developmental markers in females, as they were independent of menarche status. These findings highlight that the normative shifts occurring in attachment to caregivers around adolescence are reflected in adolescents' biological stress regulation. We discuss how studying these shifts can be informed by evolutionary-developmental theory.

  2. Feature Augmentation for Learning Confidence Measure in Stereo Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sunok; Min, Dongbo; Kim, Seungryong; Sohn, Kwanghoon

    2017-09-08

    Confidence estimation is essential for refining stereo matching results through a post-processing step. This problem has recently been studied using a learning-based approach, which demonstrates a substantial improvement on conventional simple non-learning based methods. However, the formulation of learning-based methods that individually estimates the confidence of each pixel disregards spatial coherency that might exist in the confidence map, thus providing a limited performance under challenging conditions. Our key observation is that the confidence features and resulting confidence maps are smoothly varying in the spatial domain, and highly correlated within the local regions of an image. We present a new approach that imposes spatial consistency on the confidence estimation. Specifically, a set of robust confidence features is extracted from each superpixel decomposed using the Gaussian mixture model (GMM), and then these features are concatenated with pixel-level confidence features. The features are then enhanced through adaptive filtering in the feature domain. In addition, the resulting confidence map, estimated using the confidence features with a random regression forest, is further improved through K-nearest neighbor (K-NN) based aggregation scheme on both pixel-and superpixel-level. To validate the proposed confidence estimation scheme, we employ cost modulation or ground control points (GCPs) based optimization in stereo matching. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on various benchmarks including challenging outdoor scenes.

  3. Method and system for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnowski, Thomas P [Knoxville, TN; Tobin, Jr., Kenneth W.; Muthusamy Govindasamy, Vijaya Priya [Knoxville, TN; Chaum, Edward [Memphis, TN

    2012-07-10

    A method for assigning a confidence metric for automated determination of optic disc location that includes analyzing a retinal image and determining at least two sets of coordinates locating an optic disc in the retinal image. The sets of coordinates can be determined using first and second image analysis techniques that are different from one another. An accuracy parameter can be calculated and compared to a primary risk cut-off value. A high confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is less than the primary risk cut-off value and a low confidence level can be assigned to the retinal image if the accuracy parameter is greater than the primary risk cut-off value. The primary risk cut-off value being selected to represent an acceptable risk of misdiagnosis of a disease having retinal manifestations by the automated technique.

  4. Confidence Moderates the Role of Control Beliefs in the Context of Age-Related Changes in Misinformation Susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auslander, Margeaux V; Thomas, Ayanna K; Gutchess, Angela H

    2017-01-01

    Background/Study Context: The present experiment investigated the role of confidence and control beliefs in susceptibility to the misinformation effect in young and older adults. Control beliefs are perceptions about one's abilities or competence and the extent to which one can influence performance outcomes. It was predicted that level of control beliefs would influence misinformation susceptibility and overall memory confidence. Fifty university students (ages 18-26) and 37 community-dwelling older adults (ages 62-86) were tested. Participants viewed a video, answered questions containing misinformation, and then completed a source-recognition test to determine whether the information presented was seen in the video, the questionnaire only, both, or neither. For each response, participants indicated their level of confidence. The relationship between control beliefs and memory performance was moderated by confidence. That is, individuals with lower control beliefs made more errors as confidence decreased. Additionally, the relationship between confidence and memory performance differed by age, with greater confidence related to more errors for young adults. Confidence is an important factor in how control beliefs and age are related to memory errors in the misinformation effect. This may have implications for the legal system, particularly with eyewitness testimony. The confidence of an individual should be considered if the eyewitness is a younger adult.

  5. Perceived Sources of Team Confidence in Soccer and Basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vande Broek, Gert; Boen, Filip

    2015-07-01

    Although it is generally accepted that team confidence is beneficial for optimal team functioning and performance, little is known about the predictors of team confidence. The present study was aimed to shed light on the precursors of both high and low team confidence in two different sports. A distinction is made between sources of process-oriented team confidence (i.e., collective efficacy) and sources of outcome-oriented team confidence (i.e., team outcome confidence), which have often been confounded in previous research. In a first step, two qualitative studies were conducted to identify all possible sources of team confidence in basketball and in soccer. In a second step, three quantitative studies were conducted to further investigate the sources of team outcome confidence in soccer (N = 1028) and in basketball (N = 867), and the sources of collective efficacy in basketball (N = 825). Players perceived high-quality performance as the most important factor for their team outcome confidence. With regard to collective efficacy, team enthusiasm was perceived as most predictive determinant. Positive coaching emerged as second most decisive factor for both types of team confidence. In contrast, negative communication and expression by the players or the coach was perceived as the most decisive predictor of low levels of team confidence. At item level, all studies pointed to the importance of team confidence expression by the athlete leaders (i.e., leader figures within the team) and the coach. The present manuscript sheds light on the precursors of high and low levels of team confidence. Athlete leaders and the coach emerged as key triggers of both upward and downward spirals of team confidence, thereby contaminating all team members.

  6. Confidence Intervals: From tests of statistical significance to confidence intervals, range hypotheses and substantial effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominic Beaulieu-Prévost

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available For the last 50 years of research in quantitative social sciences, the empirical evaluation of scientific hypotheses has been based on the rejection or not of the null hypothesis. However, more than 300 articles demonstrated that this method was problematic. In summary, null hypothesis testing (NHT is unfalsifiable, its results depend directly on sample size and the null hypothesis is both improbable and not plausible. Consequently, alternatives to NHT such as confidence intervals (CI and measures of effect size are starting to be used in scientific publications. The purpose of this article is, first, to provide the conceptual tools necessary to implement an approach based on confidence intervals, and second, to briefly demonstrate why such an approach is an interesting alternative to an approach based on NHT. As demonstrated in the article, the proposed CI approach avoids most problems related to a NHT approach and can often improve the scientific and contextual relevance of the statistical interpretations by testing range hypotheses instead of a point hypothesis and by defining the minimal value of a substantial effect. The main advantage of such a CI approach is that it replaces the notion of statistical power by an easily interpretable three-value logic (probable presence of a substantial effect, probable absence of a substantial effect and probabilistic undetermination. The demonstration includes a complete example.

  7. Environmental planning and management in Greater Johannesburg.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Von Schirnding, Y E

    1996-03-01

    This article describes the actions among urban environmental, management, and development planners in Greater Johannesburg, South Africa. Initiatives, such as the Healthy Cities Project and Model Communities, are being integrated into an environmental management and development approach that attains the goals of Agenda 21. Greater Johannesburg has housing shortages and homelessness. Priority needs include the areas of housing, water, electricity, public transportation, and sanitation. Clean water and air are inequitably distributed. Other key environmental problems include illegal dumping, inadequate waste disposal, poor environmental hygiene in overcrowded inner city areas, lack of open spaces, flooding, and water scarcities. The newly formed metropolitan authority offers opportunities to improve coordination and integration of environmental problems. Stakeholders from government at all levels, politicians, nongovernmental organizations, and the business sector formed an intersectoral, interdepartmental environment management committee in 1995. Stakeholders will integrate Agenda 21 within broader urban development plans and processes. The executive committee and the full council approved a set of guiding principles on environmental policy and an administrative framework for management. Four workshops were held to ensure a participatory consultation process in 1995. The WHO Collaborating Center for Urban Health will be used to facilitate the work of the Greater Johannesburg Metropolitan Council. Changes are being made in the way local governments work.

  8. Beyond hypercorrection: remembering corrective feedback for low-confidence errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Lauren; Higham, Philip A

    2017-07-01

    Correcting errors based on corrective feedback is essential to successful learning. Previous studies have found that corrections to high-confidence errors are better remembered than low-confidence errors (the hypercorrection effect). The aim of this study was to investigate whether corrections to low-confidence errors can also be successfully retained in some cases. Participants completed an initial multiple-choice test consisting of control, trick and easy general-knowledge questions, rated their confidence after answering each question, and then received immediate corrective feedback. After a short delay, they were given a cued-recall test consisting of the same questions. In two experiments, we found high-confidence errors to control questions were better corrected on the second test compared to low-confidence errors - the typical hypercorrection effect. However, low-confidence errors to trick questions were just as likely to be corrected as high-confidence errors. Most surprisingly, we found that memory for the feedback and original responses, not confidence or surprise, were significant predictors of error correction. We conclude that for some types of material, there is an effortful process of elaboration and problem solving prior to making low-confidence errors that facilitates memory of corrective feedback.

  9. "Yes, we can!" review on team confidence in sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fransen, Katrien; Mertens, Niels; Feltz, Deborah; Boen, Filip

    2017-08-01

    During the last decade, team confidence has received more and more attention in the sport psychology literature. Research has demonstrated that athletes who are more confident in their team's abilities exert more effort, set more challenging goals, are more resilient when facing adversities, and ultimately perform better. This article reviews the existing literature in order to provide more clarity in terms of the conceptualization and the operationalization of team confidence. We thereby distinguish between collective efficacy (i.e., process-oriented team confidence) and team outcome confidence (i.e., outcome-oriented team confidence). In addition, both the sources as well as the outcomes of team confidence will be discussed. Furthermore, we will go deeper into the dispersion of team confidence and we will evaluate the current guidelines on how to measure both types of team confidence. Building upon this base, the article then highlights interesting avenues for future research in order to further improve both our theoretical knowledge on team confidence and its application to the field. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Representation of retrieval confidence by single neurons in the human medial temporal lobe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutishauser, Ueli; Ye, Shengxuan; Koroma, Matthieu; Tudusciuc, Oana; Ross, Ian B.; Chung, Jeffrey M.; Mamelak, Adam N.

    2015-01-01

    Memory-based decisions are often accompanied by an assessment of choice certainty, but the mechanisms of such confidence judgments remain unknown. We studied the response of 1065 individual neurons in the human hippocampus and amygdala while neurosurgical patients made memory retrieval decisions together with a confidence judgment. Combining behavioral, neuronal and computational analysis, we identified a population of memory-selective (MS) neurons whose activity signaled stimulus familiarity and confidence as assessed by subjective report. In contrast, the activity of visually selective (VS) neurons was not sensitive to memory strength. The groups further differed in response latency, tuning, and extracellular waveforms. The information provided by MS neurons was sufficient for a race model to decide stimulus familiarity and retrieval confidence. Together, this demonstrates a trial-by-trial relationship between a specific group of neurons and declared memory strength in humans. We suggest that VS and MS neurons are a substrate for declarative memories. PMID:26053402

  11. The accuracy of meta-metacognitive judgments: regulating the realism of confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buratti, Sandra; Allwood, Carl Martin

    2012-08-01

    Can people improve the realism of their confidence judgments about the correctness of their episodic memory reports by deselecting the least realistic judgments? An assumption of Koriat and Goldsmith's (Psychol Rev 103:490-517, 1996) model is that confidence judgments regulate the reporting of memory reports. We tested whether this assumption generalizes to the regulation of the realism (accuracy) of confidence judgments. In two experiments, 270 adults in separate conditions answered 50 recognition and recall questions about the contents of a just-seen video. After each answer, they made confidence judgments about the answer's correctness. In Experiment 1, the participants in the recognition conditions significantly increased their absolute bias when they excluded 15 questions. In Experiment 2, the participants in the recall condition significantly improved their calibration. The results indicate that recall, more than recognition, offers valid cues for participants to increase the realism of their report. However, the effects were small with only weak support for the conclusion that people have some ability to regulate the realism in their confidence judgments.

  12. Sample size planning for composite reliability coefficients: accuracy in parameter estimation via narrow confidence intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry, Leann; Kelley, Ken

    2012-11-01

    Composite measures play an important role in psychology and related disciplines. Composite measures almost always have error. Correspondingly, it is important to understand the reliability of the scores from any particular composite measure. However, the point estimates of the reliability of composite measures are fallible and thus all such point estimates should be accompanied by a confidence interval. When confidence intervals are wide, there is much uncertainty in the population value of the reliability coefficient. Given the importance of reporting confidence intervals for estimates of reliability, coupled with the undesirability of wide confidence intervals, we develop methods that allow researchers to plan sample size in order to obtain narrow confidence intervals for population reliability coefficients. We first discuss composite reliability coefficients and then provide a discussion on confidence interval formation for the corresponding population value. Using the accuracy in parameter estimation approach, we develop two methods to obtain accurate estimates of reliability by planning sample size. The first method provides a way to plan sample size so that the expected confidence interval width for the population reliability coefficient is sufficiently narrow. The second method ensures that the confidence interval width will be sufficiently narrow with some desired degree of assurance (e.g., 99% assurance that the 95% confidence interval for the population reliability coefficient will be less than W units wide). The effectiveness of our methods was verified with Monte Carlo simulation studies. We demonstrate how to easily implement the methods with easy-to-use and freely available software. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  13. Vaccination Confidence and Parental Refusal/Delay of Early Childhood Vaccines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa B Gilkey

    Full Text Available To support efforts to address parental hesitancy towards early childhood vaccination, we sought to validate the Vaccination Confidence Scale using data from a large, population-based sample of U.S. parents.We used weighted data from 9,354 parents who completed the 2011 National Immunization Survey. Parents reported on the immunization history of a 19- to 35-month-old child in their households. Healthcare providers then verified children's vaccination status for vaccines including measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR, varicella, and seasonal flu. We used separate multivariable logistic regression models to assess associations between parents' mean scores on the 8-item Vaccination Confidence Scale and vaccine refusal, vaccine delay, and vaccination status.A substantial minority of parents reported a history of vaccine refusal (15% or delay (27%. Vaccination confidence was negatively associated with refusal of any vaccine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.63 as well as refusal of MMR, varicella, and flu vaccines specifically. Negative associations between vaccination confidence and measures of vaccine delay were more moderate, including delay of any vaccine (OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.76-0.86. Vaccination confidence was positively associated with having received vaccines, including MMR (OR = 1.53, 95% CI, 1.40-1.68, varicella (OR = 1.54, 95% CI, 1.42-1.66, and flu vaccines (OR = 1.32, 95% CI, 1.23-1.42.Vaccination confidence was consistently associated with early childhood vaccination behavior across multiple vaccine types. Our findings support expanding the application of the Vaccination Confidence Scale to measure vaccination beliefs among parents of young children.

  14. Can confidence indicators forecast the probability of expansion in Croatia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Čižmešija

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate how reliable are confidence indicators in forecasting the probability of expansion. We consider three Croatian Business Survey indicators: the Industrial Confidence Indicator (ICI, the Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI and the Retail Trade Confidence Indicator (RTCI. The quarterly data, used in the research, covered the periods from 1999/Q1 to 2014/Q1. Empirical analysis consists of two parts. The non-parametric Bry-Boschan algorithm is used for distinguishing periods of expansion from the period of recession in the Croatian economy. Then, various nonlinear probit models were estimated. The models differ with respect to the regressors (confidence indicators and the time lags. The positive signs of estimated parameters suggest that the probability of expansion increases with an increase in Confidence Indicators. Based on the obtained results, the conclusion is that ICI is the most powerful predictor of the probability of expansion in Croatia.

  15. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-01-01

    . It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall...... test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence...... intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated...

  16. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.

  17. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    OpenAIRE

    Kamini Solanki; Yudhvir Seetharam

    2014-01-01

    While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Ind...

  18. Confidence of model based shape reconstruction from sparse data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baka, N.; de Bruijne, Marleen; Reiber, J. H. C.

    2010-01-01

    and assign a confidence value to the resulting reconstructed shape. An evaluation study is performed to compare three methods used for sparse SSM fitting w.r.t. specificity, generalization ability, and correctness of estimated confidence limits with an increasing amount of input information. We find...... that the proposed constrained shape model outperforms the other models, is robust against the selection and amount of sparse information, and indicates the shape confidence well....

  19. The Effect of Self-confidence in SLA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李艳

    2012-01-01

      Krashen’s affective filter theory drew researchers’ attention to the fresh field of internal factors of learners. But researchers seem to pay too much attention to the other factors while tending to neglect a factor that we cannot afford to play down in language learning research—self-confidence. This paper is designed to discuss the close relationship between self-confidence and some of the other important affective factors, and furthermore raise appropriate concern over self-confidence.

  20. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra Buratti; Carl Martin Allwood

    2012-01-01

    We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate) by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying c...

  1. Generalized Confidence Interval for the Common Coefficient of Variation

    OpenAIRE

    Behboodian, Javad; Jafari, Ali Akbar

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we consider the problem of constructing the confidence interval and testing hypothesis for the common coefficient of variation (CV) of several normal populations. A new method is suggested using the concepts of generalized p-value and generalized confidence interval. Using this new method and a method proposed by Tian (2005), we obtain a shorter confidence interval for the common CV. This combination method has good properties in terms of length and coverage probability compa...

  2. Boosting confidence: is there a role for fiscal policy?

    OpenAIRE

    Panagiotis Konstantinou; Athanasios Tagkalakis

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the widely held view that expansionary fiscal policy can boost consumer and business confidence, which will stimulate private spending and sustain economic activity. We find evidence in favor of this conjecture, i.e., cuts in direct taxes generate a positive effect on consumer and business confidence, while the same applies in cases of higher non-wage government consumption. However, higher government wage bills and government investment reduce confidence, possibly bec...

  3. Greater omentum in reconstruction of refractory wounds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    沈余明; 沈祖尧

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the clinical efficacy of greater omentum in reconstruction of refractory wounds. Methods: From August 1988 to May 2001, 20 patients with refractory wound underwent pedicle or microvascular free transfer of the greater omentum. Indications of surgery were electrical injury of the wrist and hand in 9 patients, electrical injury of the scalp and cranial bones in 3, avulsion injury of the scalp in 2, radiation-related ulcer of the chest wall in 2, ulcer and osteomyelitis following resection of the sternum sarcoma in 1, electrical injury of the abdomen in 1, bone and soft tissue defects following compound fracture of the leg in 1, and extensive scar and ulcer of the leg and footdrop following trauma in 1. Severe infection and extensive tissue necrosis were present prior to surgical operation in 12 patients. Eleven patients were treated with pedicled omental flaps, and 9 patients with free omental flaps. The size of the omental flaps ranged from 20 cm×12 cm to 38 cm×23 cm. Results: All the omental flaps survived. Healing at the first intention of the wounds was achieved in 17 cases. The on-top skin grafts resulted in partial necrosis of lipid liquefaction developed in the omentum and healed with dressing change in 2 cases. A sinus tract of osteomyelitis occurred in one case and healed after delayed excision of the necrosed bone. Follow-up study of all cases from 3 to 24 months showed no recurrent wounds and post-operative abdominal complication. Recovery with acceptable appearance and restoration of function was satisfactory. Conclusions: Greater omentum provides a well-vascularized tissue with lymphatic ducts for wound coverage. It has strong resistance against infection. It is very malleable and can be molded easily. Therefore it is an ideal tissue in filling cavities and repairing defects, especially in covering large and irregular defects that can not be treated with skin or muscle flaps.

  4. Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanser, Steven E.; Manier, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    The condition of the sagebrush ecosystem has been declining in the Western United States, and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a sagebrush-obligate species, has experienced concurrent decreases in distribution and population numbers. This has prompted substantial research and management over the past two decades to improve the understanding of sage-grouse and its habitats and to address the observed decreases in distribution and population numbers. The amount of research and management has increased as the year 2015 approaches, which is when the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) is expected to make a final decision about whether or not to protect the species under the Endangered Species Act. In 2012, the Sage-Grouse Executive Oversight Committee (EOC) of the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) requested that the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) lead the development of a Greater Sage-Grouse National Research Strategy (hereafter Research Strategy). This request was motivated by a practical need to systematically connect existing research and conservation plans with persisting or emerging information needs. Managers and researchers also wanted to reduce redundancy and help focus limited funds on the highest priority research and management issues. The USGS undertook the development of this Research Strategy, which addresses information and science relating to the greater sage-grouse and its habitat across portions of 11 Western States. This Research Strategy provides an outline of important research topics to ensure that science information gaps are identified and documented in a comprehensive manner. Further, by identifying priority topics and critical information needed for planning, research, and resource management, it provides a structure to help coordinate members of an expansive research and management community in their efforts to conduct priority research.

  5. Interspecific hybridization between greater kudu and nyala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalton, Desiré L; Tordiffe, Adrian; Luther, Ilse; Duran, Assumpta; van Wyk, Anna M; Brettschneider, Helene; Oosthuizen, Almero; Modiba, Catherine; Kotzé, Antoinette

    2014-06-01

    Hybridization of wildlife species, even in the absence of introgression, is of concern due to wasted reproductive effort and a reduction in productivity. In this study we detail an accidental mating between a female nyala (Tragelaphus angasii) and a male greater kudu (T. strepsiceros). The hybrid was phenotypically nyala and was identified as such based on mitochondrial DNA. Further genetic analysis based on nine microsatellite markers, chromosome number and chromosome morphology however, confirmed its status as an F1 hybrid. Results obtained from a reproductive potential assessment indicated that this animal does not have the potential to breed successfully and can be considered as sterile.

  6. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavez, Gregory M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Zerkle, David K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Key, Brian P [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Shevitz, Daniel W [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  7. Cultural competence knowledge and confidence after classroom activities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Muzumdar, Jagannath Mohan; Holiday-Goodman, Monica; Black, Curtis; Powers, Mary

    2010-01-01

    To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum...

  8. Greater trochanteric stippling in trisomy 7p

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilde, Justin R. [Starship Children' s Hospital, Department of Paediatrics, Auckland (New Zealand); Teele, Rita L. [Starship Children' s Hospital, Department of Radiology, Auckland (New Zealand); Aftimos, Salim [Auckland City Hospital, Northern Regional Genetic Services, Auckland, Private Bag 92024 (New Zealand)

    2006-08-15

    Trisomy 7p is a rare condition involving partial or complete duplication of the short arm of chromosome 7. Radiological features include large fontanelles, widened sutures, dolicocephaly and asymmetrical skull. We report a new radiological finding of punctate calcifications in the region of femoral trochanters. This finding has not previously been reported with chromosome 7p duplication. (orig.)

  9. Causal Relationships between Communication Confidence, Beliefs about Group Work, and Willingness to Communicate in Foreign Language Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushino, Kumiko

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on the causal relationships between three factors in second language (L2) group work settings: communication confidence (i.e., confidence in one's ability to communicate), beliefs about group work, and willingness to communicate (WTC). A questionnaire was administered to 729 first-year university students in Japan. A model…

  10. Causal Relationships between Communication Confidence, Beliefs about Group Work, and Willingness to Communicate in Foreign Language Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushino, Kumiko

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on the causal relationships between three factors in second language (L2) group work settings: communication confidence (i.e., confidence in one's ability to communicate), beliefs about group work, and willingness to communicate (WTC). A questionnaire was administered to 729 first-year university students in Japan. A model…

  11. Girls' Participation in Physics in Single Sex Classes in Mixed Schools in Relation to Confidence and Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillibrand, Eileen; Robinson, Peter; Brawn, Richard; Osborn, Albert

    1999-01-01

    Reports the findings from a three-year longitudinal case study of two single-sex General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) physics classes in a mixed comprehensive school in England. Results indicate that girls who elected to study physics in single-sex classes gain confidence in the subject. This gain in confidence is associated with…

  12. The post-orgasmic prolactin increase following intercourse is greater than following masturbation and suggests greater satiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brody, Stuart; Krüger, Tillmann H C

    2006-03-01

    Research indicates that prolactin increases following orgasm are involved in a feedback loop that serves to decrease arousal through inhibitory central dopaminergic and probably peripheral processes. The magnitude of post-orgasmic prolactin increase is thus a neurohormonal index of sexual satiety. Using data from three studies of men and women engaging in masturbation or penile-vaginal intercourse to orgasm in the laboratory, we report that for both sexes (adjusted for prolactin changes in a non-sexual control condition), the magnitude of prolactin increase following intercourse is 400% greater than that following masturbation. The results are interpreted as an indication of intercourse being more physiologically satisfying than masturbation, and discussed in light of prior research reporting greater physiological and psychological benefits associated with coitus than with any other sexual activities.

  13. Factors influencing the confidence in core clinical skills among hospital nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Young Ok; Kim, Minju; Park, Kyung-Yeon; Yang, Jin-Hyang

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the confidence to perform 20 clinical skills and identify factors influencing the confidence of hospital nurses. A descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted with 550 hospital nurses at four hospitals in B city, Korea. The confidence to perform, frequency of performance and educational needs on 20 clinical skills identified by Korean Accreditation Board of Nursing were measured with a self-reported questionnaire. Data were analysed by SPSS 19.0 (IBM Corporation, Armonk, New York, USA). Participants were 27 years old on average, and 49.5% had less than 3 years of total working experience. The most confident skill was measuring vital signs, whereas the least confident skill was using defibrillator. In results of stepwise regression, confidence to perform was associated with educational needs, total working experience, frequency of performance and position. It is necessary to give opportunities to practice clinical skills at both schools and clinics for producing well-prepared nurses.

  14. Clinical staff perceptions of palliative care-related quality of care, service access, education and training needs and delivery confidence in an acute hospital setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, Rosemary; Gott, Merryn; Raphael, Deborah; O'Callaghan, Anne; Robinson, Jackie; Boyd, Michal; Laking, George; Manson, Leigh; Snow, Barry

    2014-12-01

    Central to appropriate palliative care management in hospital settings is ensuring an adequately trained workforce. In order to achieve optimum palliative care delivery, it is first necessary to create a baseline understanding of the level of palliative care education and support needs among all clinical staff (not just palliative care specialists) within the acute hospital setting. The objectives of the study were to explore clinical staff: perceptions concerning the quality of palliative care delivery and support service accessibility, previous experience and education in palliative care delivery, perceptions of their own need for formal palliative care education, confidence in palliative care delivery and the impact of formal palliative care training on perceived confidence. A purposive sample of clinical staff members (598) in a 710-bed hospital were surveyed regarding their experiences of palliative care delivery and their education needs. On average, the clinical staff rated the quality of care provided to people who die in the hospital as 'good' (x̄=4.17, SD=0.91). Respondents also reported that 19.3% of their time was spent caring for end-of-life patients. However, only 19% of the 598 respondents reported having received formal palliative care training. In contrast, 73.7% answered that they would like formal training. Perceived confidence in palliative care delivery was significantly greater for those clinical staff with formal palliative care training. Formal training in palliative care increases clinical staff perceptions of confidence, which evidence suggests impacts on the quality of palliative care provided to patients. The results of the study should be used to shape the design and delivery of palliative care education programmes within the acute hospital setting to successfully meet the needs of all clinical staff. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  15. Provider confidence in opioid prescribing and chronic pain management: results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Amy Cs; Moman, Rajat N; Moeschler, Susan M; Eldrige, Jason S; Hooten, W Michael

    2017-01-01

    Many providers report lack of confidence in managing patients with chronic pain. Thus, the primary aim of this study was to investigate the associations of provider confidence in managing chronic pain with their practice behaviors and demographics. The primary outcome measure was the results of the Opioid Therapy Provider Survey, which was administered to clinicians attending a pain-focused continuing medical education conference. Nonparametric correlations were assessed using Spearman's rho. Of the respondents, 55.0% were women, 92.8% were white, and 56.5% were physicians. Primary care providers accounted for 56.5% of the total respondents. The majority of respondents (60.8%) did not feel confident managing patients with chronic pain. Provider confidence in managing chronic pain was positively correlated with 1) following an opioid therapy protocol (P=0.001), 2) the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse (P=0.006), and 3) using a consistent practice-based approach to improve their comfort level with prescribing opioids (Pconfidence was negatively correlated with the perception that treating pain patients was a "problem in my practice" (P=0.005). In this study, the majority of providers did not feel confident managing chronic pain. However, provider confidence was associated with a protocolized and consistent practice-based approach toward managing opioids and the perceived ability to identify patients at risk for opioid misuse. Future studies should investigate whether provider confidence is associated with measurable competence in managing chronic pain and explore approaches to enhance appropriate levels of confidence in caring for patients with chronic pain.

  16. Black breast cancer survivors experience greater upper extremity disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Lorraine T; DeMichele, Angela; LeBlanc, Mously; Stephens-Shields, Alisa; Li, Susan Q; Colameco, Chris; Coursey, Morgan; Mao, Jun J

    2015-11-01

    Over one-third of breast cancer survivors experience upper extremity disability. Black women present with factors associated with greater upper extremity disability, including: increased body mass index (BMI), more advanced disease stage at diagnosis, and varying treatment type compared with Whites. No prior research has evaluated the relationship between race and upper extremity disability using validated tools and controlling for these factors. Data were drawn from a survey study among 610 women with stage I-III hormone receptor positive breast cancer. The disabilities of the arm, shoulder and hand (QuickDASH) is an 11-item self-administered questionnaire that has been validated for breast cancer survivors to assess global upper extremity function over the past 7 days. Linear regression and mediation analysis estimated the relationships between race, BMI and QuickDASH score, adjusting for demographics and treatment types. Black women (n = 98) had 7.3 points higher average QuickDASH scores than White (n = 512) women (p education, cancer treatment, months since diagnosis, and aromatase inhibitor status, Black women had an average 4-point (95 % confidence interval 0.18-8.01) higher QuickDASH score (p = 0.04) than White women. Mediation analysis suggested that BMI attenuated the association between race and disability by 40 %. Even several years post-treatment, Black breast cancer survivors had greater upper extremity disability, which was partially mediated by higher BMIs. Close monitoring of high BMI Black women may be an important step in reducing disparities in cancer survivorship. More research is needed on the relationship between race, BMI, and upper extremity disability.

  17. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  18. The Appropriateness of Confidence Ratings in Clinical Judgment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Howard N.

    1986-01-01

    Reviewed studies in which clinicians made judgments and then rated the degree of confidence that they had in each of their judgments. Results reveal little support for the hypothesis that clinicians are overconfident. Confidence ratings were related positively to the validity of judgments in a number of studies. Experienced clinicians made more…

  19. The Restoration of Confidence in Science and Technology Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bybee, Rodger W.

    1985-01-01

    An analysis is given of the crisis and loss of confidence in science and technology education, due in part to maintenance of outdated purposes, programs, and practices. The need to clarify and reformulate goals and purposes and thus restore confidence is discussed. (MNS)

  20. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  1. Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way

  2. Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    1998-01-01

    Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…

  3. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  4. Confidence in the Criminal Justice System: Does experience count?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.G.J. Van de Walle (Steven)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractPublic confidence in the justice system is relatively low compared to that in many other institutions. Part of this lack of confidence has been attributed to a low public understanding of how the justice system really works. Experience with the justice system is often identified as a way

  5. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  6. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  7. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... OF TRANSPORTATION RULES OF PRACTICE PRACTITIONERS Canons of Ethics The Practitioner's Duties and Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to the...

  8. nigerian students' self-confidence in responding to statements of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Temechegn

    The goal of the study was to find out the self-confidence and confidence level of senior ... Specifically, chemistry teachers ask students this question when an ... high school students from connecting with scientific principles in the way ... chemical reaction, ability to identify factors that affect equilibrium reactions and ability to.

  9. Monitoring consumer confidence in food safety: an exploratory study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonge, de J.; Frewer, L.J.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Renes, R.J.; Wit, de W.; Timmers, J.C.M.

    2004-01-01

    Abstract: In response to the potential for negative economic and societal effects resulting from a low level of consumer confidence in food safety, it is important to know how confidence is potentially influenced by external events. The aim of this article is to describe the development of a monitor

  10. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  11. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  12. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  13. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  14. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zylberberg, A.; Roelfsema, Pieter R; Sigman, Mariano

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments

  15. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  16. Animal Spirits and Extreme Confidence: No Guts, No Glory?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.G. Douwens-Zonneveld (Mariska)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis study investigates to what extent extreme confidence of either management or security analysts may impact financial or operating performance. We construct a multidimensional degree of company confidence measure from a wide range of corporate decisions. We empirically test this measu

  17. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  18. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  19. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2016-09-29

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often assumed that both recognition decisions and confidence judgments in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition tests depend on participants' assessments of a difference in strength of memory evidence supporting the 2 alternatives-the relative account. In the present study we focus on the basis of confidence judgments and we assess the relative account of confidence against the absolute account of confidence, by which in assigning confidence participants consider only strength of memory evidence supporting the chosen alternative. The results of the study show that confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition decisions is higher when memory evidence is stronger for the chosen alternative and also when memory evidence is stronger for the unchosen alternative. These patterns of results are consistent with the absolute account of confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition but they are inconsistent with the relative account. (PsycINFO Database Record

  20. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  1. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  2. Improved realism of confidence for an episodic memory event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Buratti

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We asked whether people can make their confidence judgments more realistic (accurate by adjusting them, with the aim of improving the relationship between the level of confidence and the correctness of the answer. This adjustment can be considered to include a so-called second-order metacognitive judgment. The participants first gave confidence judgments about their answers to questions about a video clip they had just watched. Next, they attempted to increase their accuracy by identifying confidence judgments in need of adjustment and then modifying them. The participants managed to increase their metacognitive realism, thus decreasing their absolute bias and improving their calibration, although the effects were small. We also examined the relationship between confidence judgments that were adjusted and the retrieval fluency and the phenomenological memory quality participants experienced when first answering the questions; this quality was one of either Remember (associated with concrete, vivid details or Know (associated with a feeling of familiarity. Confidence judgments associated with low retrieval fluency and the memory quality of knowing were modified more often. In brief, our results provide evidence that people can improve the realism of their confidence judgments, mainly by decreasing their confidence for incorrect answers. Thus, this study supports the conclusion that people can perform successful second-order metacognitive judgments.

  3. Confidence bounds for normal and lognormal distribution coefficients of variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steve Verrill

    2003-01-01

    This paper compares the so-called exact approach for obtaining confidence intervals on normal distribution coefficients of variation to approximate methods. Approximate approaches were found to perform less well than the exact approach for large coefficients of variation and small sample sizes. Web-based computer programs are described for calculating confidence...

  4. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  5. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  6. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  7. Is consumer confidence an indicator of JSE performance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamini Solanki

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer Confidence Index in South Africa and its effect on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE. We employ Granger causality tests to investigate the relationship across time between the Consumer Confidence Index and market performance. The results show weak evidence of a contemporaneous relationship; however, significant evidence of a Granger caused relationship is apparent. Further, changes in investor sentiment Granger-cause changes in the two indices used, generally with a lag of 9 and 12 months, but not vice versa. Thus, we find that Consumer Confidence leads JSE performance during our sample period. Our research provides evidence contradicting the common perception of consumer confidence lagging market performance, particularly in the South African context.

  8. Development of a core confidence-higher order construct.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stajkovic, Alexander D

    2006-11-01

    The author develops core confidence as a higher order construct and suggests that a core confidence-higher order construct--not addressed by extant work motivation theories--is helpful in better understanding employee motivation in today's rapidly changing organizations. Drawing from psychology (social, clinical, and developmental) and social anthropology, the author develops propositions regarding the relationships between core confidence and performance, attitudes, and subjective well-being. The core confidence-higher order construct is proposed to be manifested by hope, self-efficacy, optimism, and resilience. The author reasons that these four variables share a common confidence core (a higher order construct) and may be considered as its manifestations. Suggestions for future research and implications of the work are discussed.

  9. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning.

  10. Building trust and confidence in laboratory ES and H policy and practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graf, J.

    2000-08-01

    This report describes a successful pilot event among LANL employees that can see as a model for employee involvement and community input. The conference was designed to begin building trust and confidence in Laboratory policy and practices in the area of Environment, Safety, and Health (ES and H). It represents a concrete step toward fostering better relationships among Lab employees and creating a new, innovative approach to communication that can also be used to build trust in the larger community. Based on the proven methods of the National Issues Forums and the Jefferson Center Citizen Jury Process, this conference enabled management to learn more about the thoughts and advice of LANL employees, During the course of the day, a random sample of Lab employees representing the LANL workforce learned about issues of health, safety and the environment, and some of the options available to increase trustworthiness in these areas. These Employee Advisors then discussed the options at some length and presented recommendations to senior Lab managers in the role of Decision Makers. At the end of the day, the participants offered their reflections and discussed what they learned during the conference, and Decision Makers responded to what they heard. The most common view expressed by the Employee Advisors was that a bottom-up approach was necessary to develop more relevant ES and H policies. They were unanimous in their desire for more employee inclusion into the decision making process. All Employee Advisors were in support of a Lab wide survey to determine employee concerns about ES and H issues. After listening to the deliberation, the Decision Makers responded with several commitments. The most significant was the pledge to meet with Employee Advisors by the end of February to discuss the status of their recommendations on ES and H policy and practices. The ensuing follow-up meeting explored employee concerns in greater depth resulting in forward-looking action steps

  11. Are the obese at greater risk for depression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, R E; Kaplan, G A; Shema, S J; Strawbridge, W J

    2000-07-15

    Two waves of data from a community-based study (Alameda County Study, 1994-1995) were used to investigate the association between obesity and depression. Depression was measured with 12 items covering Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders: DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for major depressive episode. Following US Public Health Service criteria, obese subjects were defined as those with body mass index scores at the 85th percentile or higher. Covariates were age, sex, education, marital status, social isolation and social support, chronic medical conditions, functional impairment, life events, and financial strain. Results were mixed. In cross-sectional analyses, greater odds for depression in 1994 were observed for the obese, with and without adjustment for covariates. When obesity and depression were examined prospectively, controlling for other variables, obesity in 1994 predicted depression in 1995 (odds ratio (OR) = 1.73, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04, 2.87). When the data were analyzed with obesity defined as a body mass index of > or = 30, cross-sectional results were the same. However, the prospective multivariate analyses were not significant (OR = 1.43, 95% CI: 0.85, 2.43). Although these data do not resolve the role of obesity as a risk factor for depression, overall the results suggest an association between obesity and depression. The authors found no support for the "jolly fat" hypothesis (obesity reduces risk of depression). However, there has been sufficient disparity of results thus far to justify continued research.

  12. Paradoxical Interaction between Ocular Activity, Perception, and Decision Confidence at the Threshold of Vision.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Schurger

    Full Text Available In humans and some other species perceptual decision-making is complemented by the ability to make confidence judgements about the certainty of sensory evidence. While both forms of decision process have been studied empirically, the precise relationship between them remains poorly understood. We performed an experiment that combined a perceptual decision-making task (identifying the category of a faint visual stimulus with a confidence-judgement task (wagering on the accuracy of each perceptual decision. The visual stimulation paradigm required steady fixation, so we used eye-tracking to control for stray eye movements. Our data analyses revealed an unexpected and counterintuitive interaction between the steadiness of fixation (prior to and during stimulation, perceptual decision making, and post-decision wagering: greater variability in gaze direction during fixation was associated with significantly increased visual-perceptual sensitivity, but significantly decreased reliability of confidence judgements. The latter effect could not be explained by a simple change in overall confidence (i.e. a criterion artifact, but rather was tied to a change in the degree to which high wagers predicted correct decisions (i.e. the sensitivity of the confidence judgement. We found no evidence of a differential change in pupil diameter that could account for the effect and thus our results are consistent with fixational eye movements being the relevant covariate. However, we note that small changes in pupil diameter can sometimes cause artefactual fluctuations in measured gaze direction and this possibility could not be fully ruled out. In either case, our results suggest that perceptual decisions and confidence judgements can be processed independently and point toward a new avenue of research into the relationship between them.

  13. Predictive value of readiness, importance, and confidence in ability to change drinking and smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertholet, Nicolas; Gaume, Jacques; Faouzi, Mohamed; Gmel, Gerhard; Daeppen, Jean-Bernard

    2012-08-29

    Visual analog scales (VAS) are sometimes used to assess change constructs that are often considered critical for change. 1.) To determine the association of readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change alcohol and tobacco use at baseline with the risk for drinking (more than 21 drinks per week/6 drinks or more on a single occasion more than once per month) and smoking (one or more cigarettes per day) six months later. 2.) To determine the association of readiness, importance and confidence with alcohol (number of drinks/week, number of binge drinking episodes/month) and tobacco (number of cigarettes/day) use at six months. This is a secondary analysis of data from a multi-substance brief intervention randomized trial. A sample of 461 Swiss young men was analyzed as a prospective cohort. Participants were assessed at baseline and six months later on alcohol and tobacco use, and at baseline on readiness to change, importance of changing and confidence in ability to change constructs, using visual analog scales ranging from 1-10 for drinking and smoking behaviors. Regression models controlling for receipt of brief intervention were employed for each change construct. The lowest level (1-4) of each scale was the reference group that was compared to the medium (5-7) and high (8-10) levels. Among the 377 subjects reporting unhealthy alcohol use at baseline, mean (SD) readiness, importance and confidence to change drinking scores were 3.9 (3.0), 2.7 (2.2) and 7.2 (3.0), respectively. At follow-up, 108 (29%) reported no unhealthy alcohol use. Readiness was not associated with being risk-free at follow-up, but high importance (OR 2.94; 1.15, 7.50) and high confidence (OR 2.88; 1.46, 5.68) were. Among the 255 smokers at baseline, mean readiness, importance and confidence to change smoking scores were 4.6 (2.6), 5.3 (2.6) and 5.9 (2.7), respectively. At follow-up, 13% (33) reported no longer smoking. Neither readiness nor importance was

  14. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  15. Point Estimates and Confidence Intervals for Variable Importance in Multiple Linear Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, D. Roland; Zhu, PengCheng; Decady, Yves J.

    2007-01-01

    The topic of variable importance in linear regression is reviewed, and a measure first justified theoretically by Pratt (1987) is examined in detail. Asymptotic variance estimates are used to construct individual and simultaneous confidence intervals for these importance measures. A simulation study of their coverage properties is reported, and an…

  16. Counting Better? An Examination of the Impact of Quantitative Method Teaching on Statistical Anxiety and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, John Martyn; Hillier, John; Signoretta, Paola

    2015-01-01

    This article reports the results of research concerned with students' statistical anxiety and confidence to both complete and learn to complete statistical tasks. Data were collected at the beginning and end of a quantitative method statistics module. Students recognised the value of numeracy skills but felt they were not necessarily relevant for…

  17. Conceptual and Practical Implications for Rehabilitation Research: Effect Size Estimates, Confidence Intervals, and Power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrin, James M.; Bishop, Malachy; Tansey, Timothy N.; Frain, Michael; Swett, Elizabeth A.; Lane, Frank J.

    2007-01-01

    For a number of conceptually and practically important reasons, reporting of effect size estimates, confidence intervals, and power in parameter estimation is increasingly being recognized as the preferred approach in social science research. Unfortunately, this practice has not yet been widely adopted in the rehabilitation or general counseling…

  18. Increasing Confidence to Decrease Reticence: A Qualitative Action Research in Second Language Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doqaruni, Vahid Rahmani

    2015-01-01

    This study reports on an action research on increasing the English as a Foreign Language (EFL) students' confidence in speaking. Participants involved in this study were 16 male university students who had an upper-intermediate level of English. Extra speaking activities were incorporated into the classroom for 8 successive weeks. Insights into…

  19. Students' Confidence in Their Performance Judgements: A Comparison of Different Response Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Händel, Marion; Fritzsche, Eva Susanne

    2015-01-01

    We report results of two studies on metacognitive accuracy with undergraduate education students. Participating students were asked to judge their personal performance in a multiple-choice exam as well as to state their confidence in their performance judgement (second-order judgement [SOJ]). In each study, we compared four conditions that…

  20. Standardized Patient Encounters Improved Athletic Training Students' Confidence in Clinical Evaluations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Kirk J.; Jarriel, Amanda J.

    2015-01-01

    Context: Researchers have reported that interacting with standardized patients (SPs) is a worthwhile and realistic experience for athletic training (AT) students. These encounters enhance students' interviewing skills, confidence as a clinician, clinical skill development, and interpersonal communication. Objective: To determine how SP encounters…

  1. Knowledge about epilepsy and confidence in instructing students with epilepsy: teachers' responses to a new scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wodrich, David L; Jarrar, Randa; Buchhalter, Jeffrey; Levy, Roy; Gay, Catherine

    2011-02-01

    Knowledgeable and confident teachers are crucial for students with epilepsy. In this study, 91 current teachers of a student with epilepsy (CTs) and 203 teachers in general (TiGs) were surveyed using a new scale. CTs knew more school-relevant epilepsy facts than TiGs, even after controlling for special education background, F(1, 293)=5.75, P=0.017, η(2)=0.02. Both groups of teachers, however, knew less than one-half of the facts (means=10.6 [CTs] 8.7 [TiGs] of 25 items). CTs also expressed greater confidence than TiGs in their ability to meet an array of instructional, safety, and psychosocial requirements, even when between-group differences in teachers' background in special education were controlled, F(1, 293)=34.97, Pconfidence. As expected, more knowledgeable teachers expressed greater confidence (r=0.43, P<0.001). Results suggest that some facts about epilepsy require additional dissemination to educators.

  2. The undergraduate preparation of dentists: Confidence levels of final year dental students at the School of Dentistry in Cardiff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmour, A S M; Welply, A; Cowpe, J G; Bullock, A D; Jones, R J

    2016-09-23

    Objective To investigate the self-reported confidence and preparedness of final year undergraduate students in undertaking a range of clinical procedures.Methods A questionnaire was distributed to final year dental students at Cardiff University, six months prior to graduation. Respondents rated their confidence in undertaking 39 clinical procedures using a 5-point scale (1 = can undertake on own with confidence, 5 = unable to undertake). Students also responded yes/no to experiencing four difficulties and to three statements about general preparedness.Results 71% (N = 51) responded of which 55% (N = 28) were female. Over half reported being 'anxious that the supervisor was not helping enough' (57%) and 'relying heavily on supervisor for help' (53%). Eighty percent 'felt unprepared for the clinical work presented' and gender differences were most notable here (male: 65% N = 33; females: 93% N = 47). Mean confidence scores were calculated for each clinical procedure (1 = lowest; 5 = highest). Confidence was highest in performing 'simple scale' and 'fissure sealant' (mean-score = 5). Lowest scores were reported for 'surgical extractions involving a flap (mean-score = 2.28)', 'simple surgical procedures' (mean-score = 2.58) and the 'design/fit/adjustment of orthodontic appliances' (mean-score = 2.88).Conclusions As expected complex procedures that were least practised scored the lowest in overall mean confidence. Gender differences were noted in self-reported confidence for carrying out treatment unsupervised and feeling unprepared for clinical work.

  3. F-35 Sustainment: Need for Affordable Strategy, Greater Attention to Risks, and Improved Cost Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    F - 35 SUSTAINMENT Need for Affordable Strategy, Greater Attention to Risks, and Improved Cost Estimates Report...2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE F - 35 Sustainment: Need for Affordable Strategy, Greater...House of Representatives September 2014 F - 35 SUSTAINMENT Need for Affordable Strategy, Greater Attention to Risks, and Improved Cost Estimates Why

  4. Grassroots Action Research and the Greater Good

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rainey Isobel

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available

    This study examines the action research topics and topic preferences of two groups of grassroots teachers: active researchers, and potential researchers. The analysis of the topics appears to indicate that, over the past decade, action research at the teaching of English at the grassroots level to speakers of other languages has been principally understood in terms of professional development with respect to teachers’ methodologies and learners’ learning behaviours. A nascent concern for a more ample approach to professional development and issues conducive to the greater good of the profession can, it is mooted, flourish only with the collaboration of all relevant stakeholders.

    En este estudio se examinan los temas de investigación acción y los temas preferidos por dos grupos de profesores de base: uno de investigadores activos y otro de investigadores potenciales. El análisis sugiere que, durante la última década, la investigación acción en el aula de inglés para hablantes de otras lenguas se ha entendido principalmente en términos del desarrollo profesional con respecto a las metodologías de los profesores y las conductas estudiantiles de aprendizaje. Se considera que un incipiente interés por un enfoque más amplio y por asuntos conducentes al beneficio general de la profesión, solamente puede florecer con la colaboración de todos los actores más importantes.

  5. Validation, Uncertainty, and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-12-06

    This paper represents a summary of our methodology for Verification and Validation and Uncertainty Quantification. A graded scale methodology is presented and related to other concepts in the literature. We describe the critical nature of quantified Verification and Validation with Uncertainty Quantification at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after Verification and Validation has contributed to Uncertainty Quantification at specified confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. Verification and Validation methods for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence and we summarize briefly how this can lead to a Value Engineering methodology for investment strategy.

  6. Potentials for Heat Savings in Greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen; Karlsson, Kenneth

    1998-01-01

    are suggested. Two scenarios for future heat savings are established, deviating in the rates of renovation, demolition, and construction of buildings, as well as in the thermal insulation standards, ventilation systems ,and in the daily behaviour. The results are that compared to the base year 1995, heat......This report describes methodologies for analysing heat saving potentials. The background for the lack of activities in that field is suggested. Various elements of heat savings are described, including changes in daily behaviour and life styles. Definition of various levels of potentials...

  7. Appeal for legislation on greater safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baillie, Jonathan

    2011-10-01

    An Essex-headquartered company which claims to manufacture the world's leading "brand" of glass vision panel, is calling for legislation to regulate the quality and design of such products. With no statutory governance currently in place, it is concerned that a rash of badly-designed, poorer quality variants, that it says have emerged in recent years, pose a significant self-harm and ligature risk to mentally unwell patients in hospitals, and a potential danger to staff when components like internal fittings and the glass itself, especially should the latter be too thin and thus easy to break, are used as "weapons". HEJ editor Jonathan Baillie reports.

  8. Fechner's law in metacognition: A quantitative model of visual working memory confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Berg, Ronald; Yoo, Aspen H; Ma, Wei Ji

    2017-03-01

    Although visual working memory (VWM) has been studied extensively, it is unknown how people form confidence judgments about their memories. Peirce (1878) speculated that Fechner's law-which states that sensation is proportional to the logarithm of stimulus intensity-might apply to confidence reports. Based on this idea, we hypothesize that humans map the precision of their VWM contents to a confidence rating through Fechner's law. We incorporate this hypothesis into the best available model of VWM encoding and fit it to data from a delayed-estimation experiment. The model provides an excellent account of human confidence rating distributions as well as the relation between performance and confidence. Moreover, the best-fitting mapping in a model with a highly flexible mapping closely resembles the logarithmic mapping, suggesting that no alternative mapping exists that accounts better for the data than Fechner's law. We propose a neural implementation of the model and find that this model also fits the behavioral data well. Furthermore, we find that jointly fitting memory errors and confidence ratings boosts the power to distinguish previously proposed VWM encoding models by a factor of 5.99 compared to fitting only memory errors. Finally, we show that Fechner's law also accounts for metacognitive judgments in a word recognition memory task, which is a first indication that it may be a general law in metacognition. Our work presents the first model to jointly account for errors and confidence ratings in VWM and could lay the groundwork for understanding the computational mechanisms of metacognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Effect of immersive workplace experience on undergraduate nurses' mental health clinical confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Christopher; Moxham, Lorna; Taylor, Ellie K; Perlman, Dana; Brighton, Renee; Sumskis, Susan; Heffernan, Tim; Lee-Bates, Benjamin

    2017-02-03

    Preregistration education needs to ensure that student nurses are properly trained with the required skills and knowledge, and have the confidence to work with people who have a mental illness. With increased attention on non-traditional mental health clinical placements, further research is required to determine the effects of non-traditional mental health clinical placements on mental health clinical confidence. The aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of a non-traditional mental health clinical placement on mental health nursing clinical confidence compared to nursing students undergoing traditional clinical placements. Using the Mental Health Nursing Clinical Confidence Scale, the study investigated the relative effects of two placement programmes on the mental health clinical confidence of 79 nursing students. The two placement programmes included a non-traditional clinical placement of Recovery Camp and a comparison group that attended traditional clinical placements. Overall, the results indicated that, for both groups, mental health placement had a significant effect on improving mean mental health clinical confidence, both immediately upon conclusion of placement and at the 3-month follow up. Students who attended Recovery Camp reported a significant positive difference, compared to the comparison group, for ratings related to communicating effectively with clients with a mental illness, having a basic knowledge of antipsychotic medications and their side-effects, and providing client education regarding the effects and side-effects of medications. The findings suggest that a unique clinical placement, such as Recovery Camp, can improve and maintain facets of mental health clinical confidence for students of nursing. © 2017 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

  10. A Method to Compute Multiplicity Corrected Confidence Intervals for Odds Ratios and Other Relative Effect Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimmy Thomas Efird

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological studies commonly test multiple null hypotheses. In some situations it may be appropriate to account for multiplicity using statistical methodology rather than simply interpreting results with greater caution as the number of comparisons increases. Given the one-to-one relationship that exists between confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, we derive a method based upon the Hochberg step-up procedure to obtain multiplicity corrected confidence intervals (CI for odds ratios (OR and by analogy for other relative effect estimates. In contrast to previously published methods that explicitly assume knowledge of P values, this method only requires that relative effect estimates and corresponding CI be known for each comparison to obtain multiplicity corrected CI.

  11. Cultural Competence Knowledge and Confidence After Classroom Activities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jagannath Mohan Muzumdar; Monica Holiday-Goodman; Curtis Black; Mary Powers

    2010-01-01

      To determine change in cultural competency knowledge and perceived confidence of second-year pharmacy students to deliver culturally competent care after completing a required cultural competency curriculum...

  12. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  13. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario A Bertella

    Full Text Available Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  14. Rasch modeling of accuracy and confidence measures from cognitive tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paek, Insu; Lee, Jihyun; Stankov, Lazar; Wilson, Mark

    2013-01-01

    The use of IRT models has not been rigorously applied in studies of the relationship between test-takers' confidence and accuracy. This study applied the Rasch measurement models to investigate the relationship between test-takers' confidence and accuracy on English proficiency tests, proposing potentially useful measures of under or overconfidence. The Rasch approach provided the scaffolding to formulate indices that can assess the discrepancy between confidence and accuracy at the item or total test level, as well as at particular ability levels locally. In addition, a "disattenuated" measure of association between accuracy and confidence, which takes measurement error into account, was obtained through a multidimensional Rasch modeling of the two constructs where the latent variance-covariance structure is directly estimated from the data. The results indicate that the participants tend to show overconfidence bias in their own cognitive abilities.

  15. Supervised and Unsupervised Speaker Adaptation Using Confidence Measure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUJia; LIHusheng; LIUJing; LIURunsheng

    2003-01-01

    The speaker adaptation is an effective means of improving the performance of a speech recognition system,and it can be divided into supervised or unsupervised speaker adaptation.In this paper a kind of confidence measure based on the word lattice structure is proposed and is used for the supervised and unsupervised speaker adaptation.The reliability of the recognition results can be evaluated by the confidence measure,and the uncertain parts in the recognition results can be removed or be given smaller weights in the speaker adaptation process.The experiments show that the confidence can effectively eliminate the suspicious speech and improve the performance of the supervised and unsupervised adaptation considerably.The performance difference between the supervised and unsupervised adaptation is reduced by using the confidence measure based on the word lattice structure.

  16. The 'U-turn': Business confidence in a Karoo town

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2011-08-26

    Aug 26, 2011 ... confidence is a valuable tool for measuring the prevailing economic climate ..... West Province), Kimberley Business Service Centre databases, ... Small Business Research Board (SBRB) in the United States of America (USA).

  17. Word Spotting Based on a posterior Measure of Keyword Confidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郝杰; 李星

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, an approach of keyword confidence estimation is developed that well combines acoustic layer scores and syllable-based statistical language model (LM) scores.An a posteriori (AP) confidence measure and its forward-backward calculating algorithm are deduced. A zero false alarm (ZFA) assumption is proposed for evaluating relative confidence measures by word spotting task. In a word spotting experiment with a vocabulary of 240keywords, the keyword accuracy under the AP measure is above 94%, which well approaches its theoretical upper limit. In addition, a syllable lattice Hidden Markov Model (SLHMM) is formulated and a unified view of confidence estimation, word spotting, optimal path search,and N-best syllable re-scoring is presented. The proposed AP measure can be easily applied to various speech recognition systems as well.

  18. Empirical Likelihood Ratio Confidence Interval for Positively Associated Series

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jun-jian Zhang

    2007-01-01

    Empirical likelihood is discussed by using the blockwise technique for strongly stationary,positively associated random variables.Our results show that the statistics is asymptotically chi-square distributed and the corresponding confidence interval can be constructed.

  19. Helping College Students Build up Confidence in Listening

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘鹃

    2015-01-01

    Listening is the basis of communication,so fostering students’listening ability is very important.Though improving students’listening is very difficult,to help them build up their confidence in listening is an effective way.

  20. Helping College Students Build up Confidence in Listening

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘鹃

    2015-01-01

    Listening is the basis of communication,so fostering students’ listening ability is very important.Though improving students’ listening is very difficult,to help them build up their confidence in listening is an effective way.

  1. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  2. Market entry decisions: effects of absolute and relative confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolger, Fergus; Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

    2008-01-01

    In a market entry game, the number of entrants usually approaches game-theoretic equilibrium quickly, but in real-world markets business start-ups typically exceed market capacity, resulting in chronically high failure rates and suboptimal industry profits. Excessive entry has been attributed to overconfidence arising when expected payoffs depend partly on skill. In an experimental test of this hypothesis, 96 participants played 24 rounds of a market entry game, with expected payoffs dependent partly on skill on half the rounds, after their confidence was manipulated and measured. The results provide direct support for the hypothesis that high levels of confidence are largely responsible for excessive entry, and they suggest that absolute confidence, independent of interpersonal comparison, rather than confidence about one's abilities relative to others, drives excessive entry decisions when skill is involved.

  3. Innovation in internship preparation: an operative anatomy course increases senior medical students' knowledge and confidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tocco, Nikki; Brunsvold, Melissa; Kabbani, Loay; Lin, Jules; Stansfield, Brent; Mueller, Dean; Minter, Rebecca M

    2013-08-01

    An operative anatomy course was developed within the construct of a surgical internship preparatory curriculum. This course provided fourth-year medical students matching into a surgical residency the opportunity to perform intern-level procedures on cadavers under the guidance of surgical faculty members. Senior medical students performed intern-level procedures on cadavers with the assistance of faculty surgeons. Students' confidence, anxiety, and procedural knowledge were evaluated both preoperatively and postoperatively. Preoperative and postoperative data were compared both collectively and based on individual procedures. Student confidence and procedural knowledge significantly increased and anxiety significantly decreased when preoperative and postoperative data were compared (P < .05). Students reported moderate to significant improvement in their ability to perform a variety of surgical tasks. The consistent improvement in confidence, knowledge, and anxiety justifies further development of an operative anatomy course, with future assessment of the impact on performance in surgical residency. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Strengthening Social Ties to Increase Confidence and Self-Esteem Among Sexual and Gender Minority Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romijnders, Kim A; Wilkerson, J Michael; Crutzen, Rik; Kok, Gerjo; Bauldry, Jessica; Lawler, Sylvia M

    2017-05-01

    Sexual and gender minority (SGM) youth too often live in nonsupportive environments. This study reports the influence of social support from primary and secondary social ties on confidence and self-esteem among participants in Hatch Youth, a drop-in group-level intervention for SGM youth. Each 3-hour Hatch Youth meeting consists of a social, educational, and youth-led support hour. Over 14 weeks, these meetings were randomly observed and individual interviews with participating youth ( n = 12) and staff and volunteers ( n = 12) were conducted; data underwent a content analysis. Participants perceived an increase in confidence and self-esteem through enhanced bonding with family and friends, a sense of belonging, and community empowerment because of their involvement with Hatch Youth, suggesting drop-in centers can strengthen secondary social ties and improve confidence and self-esteem.

  5. Storage free confidence estimation for the TAGE branch predictor

    OpenAIRE

    Seznec A.

    2011-01-01

    For the past 15 years, it has been shown that confidence estimation of branch prediction can be used for various usages such as fetch gating or throttling for power saving or for controlling resource allocation policies in a SMT processor. In many proposals, using extra hardware and particularly storage tables for branch confidence estimators has been considered as a worthwhile silicon investment. The TAGE predictor presented in 2006 is so far considered as the state-of-the-art conditional br...

  6. A monitor for consumer confidence in the safety of food

    OpenAIRE

    Jonge, de, WJM Wim

    2008-01-01

    Despite the fact that in the developed countries food safety standards are higher than ever, food safety incidents continue to occur frequently. The accumulation of food safety incidents might affect general consumer confidence in the safety of food. Therefore, in this thesis, the concept of general consumer confidence in the safety of food is further conceptualised, and embedded within an integrative framework that incorporates both its antecedents and consequences. General consumer confiden...

  7. Stock market confidence and copula-based Markov models

    OpenAIRE

    Jovanovic, Mario

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a descriptive model of stock market confidence conditional on stock market uncertainty in a first-order copula-based Markov approach. By using monthly closing prices of the VIX as a stock market uncertainty proxy for the United States and the copula of Fang et al. (2000) a stable nonlinear relation between confidence and uncertainty is derived. Based on the existence of a specific dependence structure uncertainty-reducing policies by US institutions w...

  8. Representing Autonomous Systems Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Representing Autonomous Systems’ Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries Andrew R. Hutchins, M. L. Cummings Humans and Autonomy...characteristics of such interactions. This is particularly problematic when task demands approach, or exceed, the competency boundaries of assigned...Systems’ Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT

  9. Constructing Confidence Bands for the Hodrick-Prescott Filter

    OpenAIRE

    David E. Giles

    2012-01-01

    By noting that the Hodrick-Prescott filter can be expressed as the solution to a particular regression problem, we are able to show how to construct confidence bands for the filtered time-series. This procedure requires that the data are stationary. The construction of such confidence bands is illustrated using annual U.S. data for real value-added output; and monthly U.S. data for the unemployment rate.

  10. Building Up a Real Sector Business Confidence Index for Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Ece Oral; Dilara Ece; Turknur Hamsici

    2005-01-01

    The two major aims of this study are, firstly, to receive valuable insight into the Business Tendency Survey of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and, secondly, to construct a real sector confidence index by using the questions of the Business Tendency Survey. The most important motivation behind constructing a real sector confidence index is to provide an indicator of short-term business conditions for economic policy makers and business managers by examining business managers' view...

  11. The Stock Market and the Consumer Confidence Channel in Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Lilia Karnizova; Hashmat Khan

    2010-01-01

    When stock prices rise, so does aggregate consumer spending. A traditional explanation for this phenomenon is based on wealth effects. However, movements of the stock market may affect consumer spending indirectly, by influencing consumer confidence. A bullish stock market may make consumers feel more optimistic about the future of the aggregate economy, and hence increase their spending. This paper investigates the existence of the consumer confidence channel of asset price transmission in C...

  12. Inferior glenohumeral joint dislocation with greater tuberosity avulsion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Mohd Faizan; Latif Zafar Jilani; Mazhar Abbas; Yasir Salam Siddiqui; Aamir Bin Sabir; M.K.A.Sherwani; Saifullah Khalid

    2015-01-01

    Inferior glenohumeral dislocation is the least common type of glenohumeral dislocations.It may be associated with fractures of the adjacent bones and neurovascular compromise.It should be treated immediately by close reduction.The associated neuropraxia usually recovers with time.Traction-counter traction method is commonly used for reduction followed by immobilization of the shoulder for three weeks.Here,we report a case of inferior glenohumeral joint dislocation with greater tuberosity fracture with transient neurovascular compromise and present a brief review of the literature.

  13. High-fidelity nursing simulation: impact on student self-confidence and clinical competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, Cynthia A; Borglund, Susan; Parcells, Dax

    2010-01-01

    Development of safe nursing practice in entry-level nursing students requires special consideration from nurse educators. The paucity of data supporting high-fidelity patient simulation effectiveness in this population informed the development of a quasi-experimental, quantitative study of the relationship between simulation and student self-confidence and clinical competence. Moreover, the study reports a novel approach to measuring self-confidence and competence of entry-level nursing students. Fifty-three baccalaureate students, enrolled in either a traditional or simulation-enhanced laboratory, participated during their first clinical rotation. Student self-confidence and faculty perception of student clinical competence were measured using selected scale items of the Lasater Clinical Judgment Rubric. The results indicated an overall improvement in self-confidence and competence across the semester, however, simulation did not significantly enhance these caring attributes. The study highlights the need for further examination of teaching strategies developed to promote the transfer of self-confidence and competence from the laboratory to the clinical setting.

  14. Binomial Distribution Sample Confidence Intervals Estimation 1. Sampling and Medical Key Parameters Calculation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tudor DRUGAN

    2003-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper was to present the usefulness of the binomial distribution in studying of the contingency tables and the problems of approximation to normality of binomial distribution (the limits, advantages, and disadvantages. The classification of the medical keys parameters reported in medical literature and expressing them using the contingency table units based on their mathematical expressions restrict the discussion of the confidence intervals from 34 parameters to 9 mathematical expressions. The problem of obtaining different information starting with the computed confidence interval for a specified method, information like confidence intervals boundaries, percentages of the experimental errors, the standard deviation of the experimental errors and the deviation relative to significance level was solves through implementation in PHP programming language of original algorithms. The cases of expression, which contain two binomial variables, were separately treated. An original method of computing the confidence interval for the case of two-variable expression was proposed and implemented. The graphical representation of the expression of two binomial variables for which the variation domain of one of the variable depend on the other variable was a real problem because the most of the software used interpolation in graphical representation and the surface maps were quadratic instead of triangular. Based on an original algorithm, a module was implements in PHP in order to represent graphically the triangular surface plots. All the implementation described above was uses in computing the confidence intervals and estimating their performance for binomial distributions sample sizes and variable.

  15. Overdistribution illusions: Categorical judgments produce them, confidence ratings reduce them.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Nakamura, K; Reyna, V F; Holliday, R E

    2017-01-01

    Overdistribution is a form of memory distortion in which an event is remembered as belonging to too many episodic states, states that are logically or empirically incompatible with each other. We investigated a response formatting method of suppressing 2 basic types of overdistribution, disjunction and conjunction illusions, which parallel some classic illusions in the judgment and decision making literature. In this method, subjects respond to memory probes by rating their confidence that test cues belong to specific episodic states (e.g., presented on List 1, presented on List 2), rather than by making the usual categorical judgments about those states. The central prediction, which was derived from the task calibration principle of fuzzy-trace theory, was that confidence ratings should reduce overdistribution by diminishing subjects' reliance on noncompensatory gist memories. The data of 3 experiments agreed with that prediction. In Experiment 1, there were reliable disjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. In Experiment 2, both response formats produced reliable disjunction illusions, but those for confidence ratings were much smaller than those for categorical judgments. In Experiment 3, there were reliable conjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. Apropos of recent controversies over confidence-accuracy correlations in memory, such correlations were positive for hits, negative for correct rejections, and the 2 types of correlations were of equal magnitude. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-11-30

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Recursive confidence band construction for an unknown distribution function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Given a sample X1,...,Xn of independent observations from an unknown continuous distribution function F, the problem of constructing a confidence band for F is considered, which is a fundamental problem in statistical inference. This confidence band provides simultaneous inferences on all quantiles and also on all of the cumulative probabilities of the distribution, and so they are among the most important inference procedures that address the issue of multiplicity. A fully nonparametric approach is taken where no assumptions are made about the distribution function F. Historical approaches to this problem, such as Kolmogorov's famous () procedure, represent some of the earliest inference methodologies that address the issue of multiplicity. This is because a confidence band at a given confidence level 1-α allows inferences on all of the quantiles of the distribution, and also on all of the cumulative probabilities, at that specified confidence level. In this paper it is shown how recursive methodologies can be employed to construct both one-sided and two-sided confidence bands of various types. The first approach operates by putting bounds on the cumulative probabilities at the data points, and a recursive integration approach is described. The second approach operates by providing bounds on certain specified quantiles of the distribution, and its implementation using recursive summations of multinomial probabilities is described. These recursive methodologies are illustrated with examples, and R code is available for their implementation.

  18. A Reformulation of Support Vector Machines for General Confidence Functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yuhong; Schuurmans, Dale

    We present a generalized view of support vector machines that does not rely on a Euclidean geometric interpretation nor even positive semidefinite kernels. We base our development instead on the confidence matrix—the matrix normally determined by the direct (Hadamard) product of the kernel matrix with the label outer-product matrix. It turns out that alternative forms of confidence matrices are possible, and indeed useful. By focusing on the confidence matrix instead of the underlying kernel, we can derive an intuitive principle for optimizing example weights to yield robust classifiers. Our principle initially recovers the standard quadratic SVM training criterion, which is only convex for kernel-derived confidence measures. However, given our generalized view, we are then able to derive a principled relaxation of the SVM criterion that yields a convex upper bound. This relaxation is always convex and can be solved with a linear program. Our new training procedure obtains similar generalization performance to standard SVMs on kernel-derived confidence functions, but achieves even better results with indefinite confidence functions.

  19. A national survey of nurse training: Confidence and competence in educating patients commencing methotrexate therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Sandra; Hassell, Andrew; Ryan, Sarah; Adams, Nicola; Walker, David

    2017-09-01

    Methotrexate is routinely used to treat active disease in inflammatory arthritis. There have previously been patient safety concerns associated with methotrexate usage in practice. Most patients commencing methotrexate treatment are seen by the rheumatology nurse, to receive education (often referred to as drug counselling) on this agent prior to starting treatment. Yet, there are no recommended criteria regarding education or experience to ensure minimum competence of the rheumatology nurse. The objectives of the present survey were, firstly, to identify the relevant training experience of rheumatology nurses who provide methotrexate education and, secondly, to explore their confidence and competence in undertaking this role. A national electronic survey of rheumatology nurses, identified via the Royal College of Nursing Rheumatology Forum, national meetings and personal contacts, in order to access nurses who counsel patients on methotrexate, was carried out. A total of 104 nurses completed the survey. Reported training was highly variable, ranging from very little to having undertaken MSc courses. Knowledge of the drug was rated as the most important requirement. Confidence was largely very good and was reported to develop with experience, with 80% of participants reporting being confident after 1 year in the role. A small number of participants (four) indicated that they were 'not at all confident'. Aspects of competence and knowledge were assessed using questions on clinical situations; knowledge appeared to be good, with the exception of a question on shingles. Confidence correlated with knowledge (r = 0.21; p = 0.05), amount of training (r = 0.24; p = 0.03) and most strongly with time in the role (r = 0.74; p = 0.00001). The amount of training correlated with confidence but not with knowledge. All participants used written information, often using more than one source, with 87% of participants favouring the Arthritis Research UK information leaflet on

  20. Community Teaching Practice for Greater Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siao-cing Guo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Field experience has been considered a vital part of teacher education. Universities have to search for ways for student teachers to gain experience in an authentic teaching environment. Several successful models incorporating service learning have been reported across fields (Brooks & Schramm, 2007; Nandan, 2010; Salas, Safaradan, & Ugarte, 2008, but there is still insufficient research found that combined English teacher preparation and service learning (Hsieh, 2002. Consequently, this researcher incorporated service learning into an English methodology course in Taiwan to engage students in higher learning experiences that take them beyond traditional teacher training. This paper describes a four-stage process of community service teaching, presenting its benefits and challenges. This study which incorporated quantitative and qualitative methodologies proved that teaching practices in collaboration with community libraries created three-way benefits: advancing the quality of college education and bringing valuable learning opportunities to the student teachers as well as the children who participated; and creating memorable experiences for the students and the communities that participated. Keywords: service learning, teacher preparation, university partnership, higher education