WorldWideScience

Sample records for replicating sea-level training

  1. Effect of high-intensity hypoxic training on sea-level swimming performances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truijens, M J; Toussaint, H M; Dow, J; Levine, B D

    2003-02-01

    The objective of this study was to test the hypothesis that high-intensity hypoxic training improves sea-level performances more than equivalent training in normoxia. Sixteen well-trained collegiate and Masters swimmers (10 women, 6 men) completed a 5-wk training program, consisting of three high-intensity training sessions in a flume and supplemental low- or moderate-intensity sessions in a pool each week. Subjects were matched for gender, performance level, and training history, and they were assigned to either hypoxic [Hypo; inspired O2 fraction (Fi(O(2))) = 15.3%, equivalent to a simulated altitude of 2,500 m] or normoxic (Norm; Fi(O(2)) = 20.9%) interval training in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled design. All pool training occurred under Norm conditions. The primary performance measures were 100- and 400-m freestyle time trials. Laboratory outcomes included maximal O(2) uptake (Vo(2 max)), anaerobic capacity (accumulated O(2) deficit), and swimming economy. Significant (P = 0.02 and swimming performances and Vo(2 max) in well-trained swimmers, with no additive effect of hypoxic training.

  2. Stress from exercise in the below sea level environment causes an increase in serum testosterone levels in trained athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bani Hani, I; El-Migdadi, F; Shotar, A; Abudheese, R; Bashir, N

    2001-01-01

    A comparative study (n = 20) of serum levels of leutinizing hormone (LH) and testosterone (T) between male trained athletes (high-school students, 16-18 years old) living in North and South Shouna in the Jordan Valley (JV), 320-360 meters below sea level, and those living in Ramtha and Irbid, 550-650 meters above sea level, was conducted in November, 1999. Serum levels of LH and T were also measured in these athletes following a 20 Km noncompetitive run. The air temperatures on the day of the experiment was comparable (25 degrees C in North and South Shouna versus 23 degrees C in Ramtha and Irbid). Before exercise, serum levels of LH and T in athletes of the below sea level environment (North and South Shouna) were similar to those levels in athletes of the above sea level environment (Ramtha and Irbid). Exercise caused a significant increase in serum levels of both LH and T only in athletes of North and South Shouna. It seems likely that the higher secretion of LH contributes, at least in part, for the higher serum levels of T following exercise. Taken together, these data suggest that exercise has an effect on LH and T secretion that is similar to that of fasting. And finally, the below sea level environmental factors, such as the high barometric pressure, as well as the genetic background of the athletes affect the pituitary and adrenal cortex as well as testicular tissue, resulting in the secretion of more LH and T.

  3. Sea level change

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A.; Clark, P.U.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A.; Merrifield, M.A.; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved...

  4. No Additional Benefit of Repeat-Sprint Training in Hypoxia than in Normoxia on Sea-Level Repeat-Sprint Ability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goods, Paul S.R.; Dawson, Brian; Landers, Grant J.; Gore, Christopher J.; Peeling, Peter

    2015-01-01

    To assess the impact of ‘top-up’ normoxic or hypoxic repeat-sprint training on sea-level repeat-sprint ability, thirty team sport athletes were randomly split into three groups, which were matched in running repeat-sprint ability (RSA), cycling RSA and 20 m shuttle run performance. Two groups then performed 15 maximal cycling repeat-sprint training sessions over 5 weeks, in either normoxia (NORM) or hypoxia (HYP), while a third group acted as a control (CON). In the post-training cycling RSA test, both NORM (13.6%; p = 0.0001, and 8.6%; p = 0.001) and HYP (10.3%; p = 0.007, and 4.7%; p = 0.046) significantly improved overall mean and peak power output, respectively, whereas CON did not change (1.4%; p = 0.528, and -1.1%; p = 0.571, respectively); with only NORM demonstrating a moderate effect for improved mean and peak power output compared to CON. Running RSA demonstrated no significant between group differences; however, the mean sprint times improved significantly from pre- to post-training for CON (1.1%), NORM (1.8%), and HYP (2.3%). Finally, there were no group differences in 20 m shuttle run performance. In conclusion, ‘top-up’ training improved performance in a task-specific activity (i.e. cycling); however, there was no additional benefit of conducting this ‘top-up’ training in hypoxia, since cycle RSA improved similarly in both HYP and NORM conditions. Regardless, the ‘top-up’ training had no significant impact on running RSA, therefore the use of cycle repeat-sprint training should be discouraged for team sport athletes due to limitations in specificity. Key points ‘Top-up’ repeat-sprint training performed on a cycle ergometer enhances cycle repeat-sprint ability compared to team sport training only in football players. The addition of moderate hypoxia to repeat-sprint training provides no additional performance benefits to sea-level repeat-sprint ability or endurance performance than normoxic repeat-sprint training.

  5. No Additional Benefit of Repeat-Sprint Training in Hypoxia than in Normoxia on Sea-Level Repeat-Sprint Ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goods, Paul S R; Dawson, Brian; Landers, Grant J; Gore, Christopher J; Peeling, Peter

    2015-09-01

    To assess the impact of 'top-up' normoxic or hypoxic repeat-sprint training on sea-level repeat-sprint ability, thirty team sport athletes were randomly split into three groups, which were matched in running repeat-sprint ability (RSA), cycling RSA and 20 m shuttle run performance. Two groups then performed 15 maximal cycling repeat-sprint training sessions over 5 weeks, in either normoxia (NORM) or hypoxia (HYP), while a third group acted as a control (CON). In the post-training cycling RSA test, both NORM (13.6%; p = 0.0001, and 8.6%; p = 0.001) and HYP (10.3%; p = 0.007, and 4.7%; p = 0.046) significantly improved overall mean and peak power output, respectively, whereas CON did not change (1.4%; p = 0.528, and -1.1%; p = 0.571, respectively); with only NORM demonstrating a moderate effect for improved mean and peak power output compared to CON. Running RSA demonstrated no significant between group differences; however, the mean sprint times improved significantly from pre- to post-training for CON (1.1%), NORM (1.8%), and HYP (2.3%). Finally, there were no group differences in 20 m shuttle run performance. In conclusion, 'top-up' training improved performance in a task-specific activity (i.e. cycling); however, there was no additional benefit of conducting this 'top-up' training in hypoxia, since cycle RSA improved similarly in both HYP and NORM conditions. Regardless, the 'top-up' training had no significant impact on running RSA, therefore the use of cycle repeat-sprint training should be discouraged for team sport athletes due to limitations in specificity. Key points'Top-up' repeat-sprint training performed on a cycle ergometer enhances cycle repeat-sprint ability compared to team sport training only in football players.The addition of moderate hypoxia to repeat-sprint training provides no additional performance benefits to sea-level repeat-sprint ability or endurance performance than normoxic repeat-sprint training.'Top-up' cycling repeat-sprint training

  6. Arctic Sea Level Reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde

    Reconstruction of historical Arctic sea level is very difficult due to the limited coverage and quality of tide gauge and altimetry data in the area. This thesis addresses many of these issues, and discusses strategies to help achieve a stable and plausible reconstruction of Arctic sea level from...... 1950 to today.The primary record of historical sea level, on the order of several decades to a few centuries, is tide gauges. Tide gauge records from around the world are collected in the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) database, and includes data along the Arctic coasts. A reasonable...... amount of data is available along the Norwegian and Russian coasts since 1950, and most published research on Arctic sea level extends cautiously from these areas. Very little tide gauge data is available elsewhere in the Arctic, and records of a length of several decades,as generally recommended for sea...

  7.  ATHLETIC PERFORMANCE OF SWIMMERS AFTER ALTITUDE TRAINING (2,300 M ABOVE SEA LEVEL IN VIEW OF THEIR BLOOD MORPHOLOGY CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Adamczyk

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to estimate changes in blood morphology caused by participation of record-seeking swimmers in a high altitude training camp at 2,300 m above sea level and to assess their performance during major competitions before and after the camp. Eight swimmers (two females and six males - record-holders and medallists of the Polish National Championships, as well as finalists and medallists of the European and World Championships and the Olympic Games (including a two-time holder of the world record - were recruited. During the 2006/2007 season the athletes attended a training camp organized according to the principle “live high and train high”. The camp lasted 23 days and consisted of three micro-cycles of training, each of them with specific training objectives. Before and after participation in the training camp erythrocyte (red blood cells; RBC count, haemoglobin (Hb concentration and haematocrit (Hct were estimated at a hospital laboratory. Scores amassed by the examined athletes during major competitions were presented after their transformation into points based on the FINA (International Swimming Federation tables for years 2005-2008. The best results (time for a distance achieved during competitions organized before and after participation in the camp were regarded as reference points. Additionally, liquid balance of the body was monitored during 30 selected training units (15 in the morning and 15 in the evening. The response of the examined swimmers from the Polish Olympic Team to the high altitude training (at 2,300 m above sea level was represented by an almost three-fold increase in blood reticulocyte count during the first micro-cycle of training as well as by an elevated erythrocyte count (by 14.4% and haemoglobin (by 13.5% and haematocrit (by 14.8% levels estimated after completion of the training, as compared to the results obtained before the camp. Six out of eight subjects improved their performance in

  8. Contemporary sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazenave, Anny; Llovel, William

    2010-01-01

    Measuring sea level change and understanding its causes has considerably improved in the recent years, essentially because new in situ and remote sensing observations have become available. Here we report on most recent results on contemporary sea level rise. We first present sea level observations from tide gauges over the twentieth century and from satellite altimetry since the early 1990s. We next discuss the most recent progress made in quantifying the processes causing sea level change on timescales ranging from years to decades, i.e., thermal expansion of the oceans, land ice mass loss, and land water-storage change. We show that for the 1993-2007 time span, the sum of climate-related contributions (2.85 +/- 0.35 mm year(-1)) is only slightly less than altimetry-based sea level rise (3.3 +/- 0.4 mm year(-1)): approximately 30% of the observed rate of rise is due to ocean thermal expansion and approximately 55% results from land ice melt. Recent acceleration in glacier melting and ice mass loss from the ice sheets increases the latter contribution up to 80% for the past five years. We also review the main causes of regional variability in sea level trends: The dominant contribution results from nonuniform changes in ocean thermal expansion.

  9. Projecting future sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Bromirski, Peter; Hayhoe, Katharine; Tyree, Mary; Dettinger, Mike; Flick, Reinhard

    2006-01-01

    California’s coastal observations and global model projections indicate that California’s open coast and estuaries will experience increasing sea levels over the next century. Sea level rise has affected much of the coast of California, including the Southern California coast, the Central California open coast, and the San Francisco Bay and upper estuary. These trends, quantified from a small set of California tide gages, have ranged from 10–20 centimeters (cm) (3.9–7.9 inches) per century, quite similar to that estimated for global mean sea level. So far, there is little evidence that the rate of rise has accelerated, and the rate of rise at California tide gages has actually flattened since 1980, but projections suggest substantial sea level rise may occur over the next century. Climate change simulations project a substantial rate of global sea level rise over the next century due to thermal expansion as the oceans warm and runoff from melting land-based snow and ice accelerates. Sea level rise projected from the models increases with the amount of warming. Relative to sea levels in 2000, by the 2070–2099 period, sea level rise projections range from 11–54 cm (4.3–21 in) for simulations following the lower (B1) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, from 14–61 cm (5.5–24 in) for the middle-upper (A2) emission scenario, and from 17–72 cm (6.7–28 in) for the highest (A1fi) scenario. In addition to relatively steady secular trends, sea levels along the California coast undergo shorter period variability above or below predicted tide levels and changes associated with long-term trends. These variations are caused by weather events and by seasonal to decadal climate fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean that in turn affect the Pacific coast. Highest coastal sea levels have occurred when winter storms and Pacific climate disturbances, such as El Niño, have coincided with high astronomical tides. This study considers a range of projected future

  10. Sea level and climate variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1985-01-01

    Review paper, ESA Symposium on Application of Satellite Data to Climate Modelling. Alpbach (Austria) Sea level is an essential component of the climate system, on which many human activities in the coastal zone depend. Climate variations leading to changes in relative sea level are

  11. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  12. Sea Level Rise Data Discovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, N.; Huang, T.; Boening, C.; Gill, K. M.

    2016-12-01

    Research related to sea level rise crosses multiple disciplines from sea ice to land hydrology. The NASA Sea Level Change Portal (SLCP) is a one-stop source for current sea level change information and data, including interactive tools for accessing and viewing regional data, a virtual dashboard of sea level indicators, and ongoing updates through a suite of editorial products that include content articles, graphics, videos, and animations. The architecture behind the SLCP makes it possible to integrate web content and data relevant to sea level change that are archived across various data centers as well as new data generated by sea level change principal investigators. The Extensible Data Gateway Environment (EDGE) is incorporated into the SLCP architecture to provide a unified platform for web content and science data discovery. EDGE is a data integration platform designed to facilitate high-performance geospatial data discovery and access with the ability to support multi-metadata standard specifications. EDGE has the capability to retrieve data from one or more sources and package the resulting sets into a single response to the requestor. With this unified endpoint, the Data Analysis Tool that is available on the SLCP can retrieve dataset and granule level metadata as well as perform geospatial search on the data. This talk focuses on the architecture that makes it possible to seamlessly integrate and enable discovery of disparate data relevant to sea level rise.

  13. SEA LEVEL (TOPEX/POSEIDON)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Sea level rise is caused by the thermal expansion of sea water due to climate warming and widespread melting of land ice. The TOPEX/POSEIDON mission a joint...

  14. Replication of the training program in nonverbal communication in gerontology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimidt, Teresa Cristina Gioia; Duarte, Yeda Aparecida de Oliveira

    2015-01-01

    to measure the rate of assimilation of applied content at immediate and subsequent moments after a nonverbal communication in gerontology training program. descriptive and exploratory fi eld study developed in three state administered hospitals, which attend Brazilian National Health Service (SUS) clients. The duration of the training was twelve hours, applied with 102 healthcare professionals. the results revealed that the rate of assimilation of the content immediately after the program was satisfactory, as well as being satisfactory in the aspects concept of aging; strategies to foster the independence and autonomy of the elderly person; communication interferences linked to the elderly and the professional; recognition of non-verbal functions and dimensions. The exception was the professional perception faced with aspects that influence the success of communication. it was concluded that the replication of this program was relevant and current for the hospital context, remaining effi cient for healthcare professionals.

  15. Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauels, Alexander; Meinshausen, Malte; Mengel, Matthias; Lorbacher, Katja; Wigley, Tom M. L.

    2017-06-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is one of the major impacts of global warming; it will threaten coastal populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems around the globe in coming centuries. Well-constrained sea level projections are needed to estimate future losses from SLR and benefits of climate protection and adaptation. Process-based models that are designed to resolve the underlying physics of individual sea level drivers form the basis for state-of-the-art sea level projections. However, associated computational costs allow for only a small number of simulations based on selected scenarios that often vary for different sea level components. This approach does not sufficiently support sea level impact science and climate policy analysis, which require a sea level projection methodology that is flexible with regard to the climate scenario yet comprehensive and bound by the physical constraints provided by process-based models. To fill this gap, we present a sea level model that emulates global-mean long-term process-based model projections for all major sea level components. Thermal expansion estimates are calculated with the hemispheric upwelling-diffusion ocean component of the simple carbon-cycle climate model MAGICC, which has been updated and calibrated against CMIP5 ocean temperature profiles and thermal expansion data. Global glacier contributions are estimated based on a parameterization constrained by transient and equilibrium process-based projections. Sea level contribution estimates for Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are derived from surface mass balance and solid ice discharge parameterizations reproducing current output from ice-sheet models. The land water storage component replicates recent hydrological modeling results. For 2100, we project 0.35 to 0.56 m (66 % range) total SLR based on the RCP2.6 scenario, 0.45 to 0.67 m for RCP4.5, 0.46 to 0.71 m for RCP6.0, and 0.65 to 0.97 m for RCP8.5. These projections lie within the range of the latest IPCC SLR

  16. Replicability of sight word training and phonics training in poor readers: a randomised controlled trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G McArthur

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Given the importance of effective treatments for children with reading impairment, paired with growing concern about the lack of scientific replication in psychological science, the aim of this study was to replicate a quasi-randomised trial of sight word and phonics training using a randomised controlled trial (RCT design. One group of poor readers (N = 41 did 8 weeks of phonics training (i.e., phonological decoding and then 8 weeks of sight word training (i.e., whole-word recognition. A second group did the reverse order of training. Sight word and phonics training each had a large and significant valid treatment effect on trained irregular words and word reading fluency. In addition, combined sight word and phonics training had a moderate and significant valid treatment effect on nonword reading accuracy and fluency. These findings demonstrate the reliability of both phonics and sight word training in treating poor readers in an era where the importance of scientific reliability is under close scrutiny.

  17. CO2 and sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Peter M.

    There is considerable discussion currently about the potential effects of carbon dioxide build-up in the atmosphere over the next several decades. The sources of information are two Government funded reports, one by the National Research Council (NRC), the other by the Environment Protection Agency (EPA), both were released within the last five months. The reports were described recently as being conservative, although the consequences of the resulting greenhouse effects are deemed inevitable. Atmospheric warming on a global scale of as much as 5°C cannot be avoided, only perhaps delayed by a few years at best (Environ. Sci. Technol, 18, 45A-46A, 1984). The cause is the burning of fossil fuels. Oil will not be too important because its supplies are predictably exhausted on the time scale of 50-100 years. Coal burning is considered as the main source of carbon dioxide. Among the more spectacular results of a global temperature rise over the next 100 years is the expected rise in sea level of a minimum of 70 cm (Oceanus, Winter, 1983/84). If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet breaks up and melts, the rise could be in the several meter range. Sea level rose only 15 cm in the past century.

  18. Global Warming and Caspian Sea Level Fluctuations

    CERN Document Server

    Ardakanian, Reza

    2013-01-01

    Coastal regions have a high social, economical and environmental importance. Due to this importance the sea level fluctuations can have many bad consequences. In this research the correlation between the increasing trend of temperature in coastal stations due to Global Warming and the Caspian Sea level has been established. The Caspian Sea level data has been received from the Jason-1 satellite. It was resulted that the monthly correlation between the temperature and sea level is high and also positive and almost the same for all the stations. But the yearly correlation was negative. It means that the sea level has decreased by the increase in temperature.

  19. On sea level - ice sheet interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Natalya Alissa

    This thesis focuses on the physics of static sea-level changes following variations in the distribution of grounded ice and the influence of these changes on the stability and dynamics of marine ice sheets. Gravitational, deformational and rotational effects associated with changes in grounded ice mass lead to markedly non-uniform spatial patterns of sea-level change. I outline a revised theory for computing post-glacial sea-level predictions and discuss the dominant physical effects that contribute to the patterns of sea-level change associated with surface loading on different timescales. I show, in particular, that a large sea-level fall (rise) occurs in the vicinity of a retreating (advancing) ice sheet on both short and long timescales. I also present an application of the sea-level theory in which I predict the sea-level changes associated with a new model of North American ice sheet evolution and consider the implications of the results for efforts to establish the sources of Meltwater Pulse 1A. These results demonstrate that viscous deformational effects can influence the amplitude of sea-level changes observed at far-field sea-level sites, even when the time window being considered is relatively short (≤ 500 years). Subsequently, I investigate the feedback of sea-level changes on marine ice-sheet stability and dynamics by coupling a global sea-level model to ice-sheet models of increasing complexity. To begin, I incorporate gravitationally self-consistent sea-level changes into an equilibrium marine ice-sheet stability theory to show that the sea-level changes have a stabilizing influence on ice-sheet retreat. Next, I consider the impact of the stabilizing mechanism on the timescale of ice-sheet retreat using a 1D dynamic coupled ice sheet - sea level model. Simulations with the coupled model, which incorporate viscoelastic deformation of the solid Earth, show that local sea-level changes at the grounding line act to slow, and in some cases, halt

  20. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important factors in

  1. Greenhouse warming and changes in sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1989-01-01

    It is likely that the anticipated warming due to the effect of increasing concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases will lead to a further and faster rise in world mean sea level. There are many processes in the climate system controlling sea level, but the most important

  2. Causes for contemporary regional sea level changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stammer, Detlef; Cazenave, Anny; Ponte, Rui M; Tamisiea, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Regional sea level changes can deviate substantially from those of the global mean, can vary on a broad range of timescales, and in some regions can even lead to a reversal of long-term global mean sea level trends. The underlying causes are associated with dynamic variations in the ocean circulation as part of climate modes of variability and with an isostatic adjustment of Earth's crust to past and ongoing changes in polar ice masses and continental water storage. Relative to the coastline, sea level is also affected by processes such as earthquakes and anthropogenically induced subsidence. Present-day regional sea level changes appear to be caused primarily by natural climate variability. However, the imprint of anthropogenic effects on regional sea level-whether due to changes in the atmospheric forcing or to mass variations in the system-will grow with time as climate change progresses, and toward the end of the twenty-first century, regional sea level patterns will be a superposition of climate variability modes and natural and anthropogenically induced static sea level patterns. Attribution and predictions of ongoing and future sea level changes require an expanded and sustained climate observing system.

  3. Global Sea Level Change and Thermal Contribution

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZUO Juncheng; ZHANG Jianli; DU Ling; LI Peiliang; LI Lei

    2009-01-01

    The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.

  4. Hölder Scales of Sea Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Li

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The statistics of sea level is essential in the field of geosciences, ranging from ocean dynamics to climates. The fractal properties of sea level, such as long-range dependence (LRD or long memory, 1/f noise behavior, and self-similarity (SS, are known. However, the description of its multiscale behavior as well as local roughness with the Hölder exponent h(t from a view of multifractional Brownian motion (mBm is rarely reported, to the best of our knowledge. In this research, we will exhibit that there is the multiscale property of sea level based on h(ts of sea level data recorded by the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC at six stations in the Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico. The contributions of this paper are twofold as follows. (i Hölder exponent of sea level may not change with time considerably at small time scale, for example, daily time scale, but it varies significantly at large time scale, such as at monthly time scale. (ii The dispersion of the Hölder exponents of sea level may be different at different stations. This implies that the Hölder roughness of sea level may be spatial dependent.

  5. The Caribbean conundrum of Holocene sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Luke; Mound, Jon

    2014-05-01

    In the tropics, pre-historic sea-level curve reconstruction is often problematic because it relies upon sea-level indicators whose vertical relationship to the sea surface is poorly constrained. In the Caribbean, fossil corals, mangrove peats and shell material dominate the pre-historic indicator record. The common approach to reconstruction involves the use of modern analogues to these indicators to establish a fixed vertical habitable range. The aim of these reconstructions is to find spatial variability in the Holocene sea level in an area gradually subsiding (Holocene sea-level indicators and the other of published, modern growth rates, abundance and coverage of mangrove and coral species for different depths. We use the first catalogue to calibrate 14C ages to give a probabilistic age range for each indicator. We use the second catalogue to define a depth probability distribution function (pdf) for mangroves and each coral species. The Holocene indicators are grouped into 12 sub-regions around the Caribbean. For each sub-region we apply our sea-level reconstruction, which involves stepping a fixed-length time window through time and calculating the position (and rate) of sea-level (change) using a thousand realisations of the time/depth pdfs to define an envelope of probable solutions. We find that the sub-regional relative sea-level curves display spatio-temporal variability including a south-east to north-west 1500 year lag in the arrival of Holocene sea level to that of the present day. We demonstrate that these variations are primarily due to glacial-isostatic-adjustment induced sea-level change and that sub-regional variations (where sufficient data exists) are due to local uplift variability.

  6. Legacy HMSRP NWHI Sea Level Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Island elevation data use in publication by Baker JD, Littnan CL, Johnston DW. "2006. Potential effects of sea level rise on the terrestrial habitats of endangered...

  7. Climate Prediction Center Darwin Sea Level Pressure

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains Darwin sea level pressures and anomalies during 1951-present. The anomalies are departures...

  8. Sea level rise and its coastal impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Cazenave, Anny; Le Cozannet, Gonéri

    2014-01-01

    Link to the paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013EF000188/abstract; International audience; Global warming in response to accumulation of human-induced greenhouse gases inside the atmosphere has already caused several visible consequences, among them increase of the Earth's mean temperature and ocean heat content, melting of glaciers, and loss of ice from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. Ocean warming and land ice melt in turn are causing sea level to rise. Sea level ...

  9. Observations: Oceanic climate change and sea level

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bindoff, N.L.; Willebrand, J.; Artale, V.; Cazenave, A.; Gregory, J.; Gulev, S.; Hanawa, K.; LeQuere, C.; Levitus, S.; Nojiri, Y.; Shum, C.K.; Talley, L.D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    Rising? ............................................ 409 References ........................................................................ 422 Appendix 5.A: Techniques, Error Estimation and Measurement Systems ................. 429 387... driven by reduced rates of water renewal, in the thermocline (~100–1,000 m) in most ocean basins from the early 1970s to the late 1990s. • Global mean sea level has been rising. From 1961 to 2003, the average rate of sea level rise was 1.8 ± 0.5 mm...

  10. Development of the Bulgarian Sea Level Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazov, Atanas

    2013-04-01

    Systematic sea level measurements have been started in Bulgaria in the beginning of 20th century and nowadays there are 16 coastal sea level stations in operation. Operators of sea level stations are: National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (NIMH) - 6 stations, Cadastre Agency, Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works (CA) - 4 stations, Port Infrastructure (PI) - 5 stations and Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences (IO-BAS) - 1 station. Six of them are able to provide real time data. The sea level observations in the network of NIMH, performed at six main Bulgarian ports using standard poles, started in 1910. The program, implemented on the NIMH stations, includes daily measurements of the sea level with water gauges (poles). The position of a zero mark of the water gauge is checked once per year. The sea level network of the CA consists of 4 stations: Varna and Burgas (operational since 1928), Irakly and Ahtopol (since 1971). These stations are equipped with stilling-well tide gauges and with mechanical writing devices which draws sea level changes on paper. A mechanical paper writing instruments were installed in Varna and Burgas during 1928 and in 1971, a new paper writing instruments of type SUM (Russian) were installed in the stations of Irakly and Ahtopol. A set of five sea level stations in the ports of Balchik, Varna west, Pomorie, Burgas and Oil port Burgas was build during 2009 in the frame of Port Operational Marine Observing System (POMOS), equipped with high accuracy microwave instruments and operated by PI. In 2010 a new sea level station was set up in the IO-BAS coastal research base Shkorpolovtci. The station is equipped with high accuracy microwave instrument. These six stations are providing real time data. According to the decision of the Council of Ministers in 2012 sea level stations in Varna, Irakly, Burgas and Ahtopol will be operated jointly by Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and

  11. Sea level ~400 000 years ago (MIS 11: analogue for present and future sea-level?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Q. Bowen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Comparison of the sea-level today with that of 400 000 years ago (MIS 11, when the Earth's orbital characteristics were similar may provide, under conditions of natural variability, indications of future sea-level during the present interglacial. Then, as now, orbital eccentricity was low and precession dampened. Evidence for MIS 11 sea-level occurs on uplifting coastlines where shorelines with geochronological ages have been preserved. The sea-level term and the uplift term may be separated with an "uplift correction" formula. This discovers the original sea-level at which the now uplifted shoreline was fashioned. Estimates are based on average uplift rates of the "last interglacial" sea-level (MIS 5.5 using a range of estimates for sea-level and age at that time at different locations. These, with varying secular tectonic regimes in different ocean basins, provide a band of estimates for the MIS 11 sea-level. They do not support the hypothesis of an MIS 11 sea-level at ~20 m, and instead show that it was closer to its present level.

  12. Upper Limit for Regional Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2016-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. With probabilistic approach we produce regional sea level projections taking into account large uncertainties associated with Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets contribution. We calculate the upper limit (as 95%) for regional sea level projections by 2100 with RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting that for the most coastlines upper limit will exceed the global upper limit of 1.8 m.

  13. Recent Arctic Sea Level Variations from Satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Piccioni, Gaia

    2016-01-01

    Sea level monitoring in the Arctic region has always been an extreme challenge for remote sensing, and in particular for satellite altimetry. Despite more than two decades of observations, altimetry is still limited in the inner Arctic Ocean. We have developed an updated version of the Danish...... Technical University's (DTU) Arctic Ocean altimetric sea level timeseries starting in 1993 and now extended up to 2015 with CryoSat-2 data. The time-series covers a total of 23 years, which allows higher accuracy in sea level trend determination. The record shows a sea level trend of 2.2 ± 1.1 mm....../y for the region between 66°N and 82°N. In particular, a local increase of 15 mm/y is found in correspondence to the Beaufort Gyre. An early estimate of the mean sea level trend budget closure in the Arctic for the period 2005–2015 was derived by using the Equivalent Water Heights obtained from GRACE Tellus...

  14. Visualizing Sea Level Rise with Augmented Reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kintisch, E. S.

    2013-12-01

    Looking Glass is an application on the iPhone that visualizes in 3-D future scenarios of sea level rise, overlaid on live camera imagery in situ. Using a technology known as augmented reality, the app allows a layperson user to explore various scenarios of sea level rise using a visual interface. Then the user can see, in an immersive, dynamic way, how those scenarios would affect a real place. The first part of the experience activates users' cognitive, quantitative thinking process, teaching them how global sea level rise, tides and storm surge contribute to flooding; the second allows an emotional response to a striking visual depiction of possible future catastrophe. This project represents a partnership between a science journalist, MIT, and the Rhode Island School of Design, and the talk will touch on lessons this projects provides on structuring and executing such multidisciplinary efforts on future design projects.

  15. The Sea Level Fingerprints of Global Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitrovica, J. X.; Hay, C.; Kopp, R. E., III; Morrow, E.

    2014-12-01

    It may be difficult to persuade those living in northern Europe that the sea level changes that their coastal communities face depends less on the total melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers than on the individual contributions to this total. In particular, melting of a specific ice sheet or mountain glacier drives deformational, gravitational and rotational perturbations to the Earth system that are manifest in a unique geometry, or fingerprint, of global sea level change. For example, melting from the Greenland Ice Sheet equivalent to 1 mm/yr of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise will lead to sea level rise of ~0 mm/yr in Dublin, ~0.2 mm/yr in Amsterdam, ~0.4 mm/yr in Boston and ~1.2 mm/yr in Cape Town. In contrast, if the same volume of ice melted from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, all of the above sites would experience a sea level rise in the range 1.1-1.2 mm/yr. These fingerprints of modern ice melting, together with ocean thermal expansion and dynamic effects, and the ongoing signal from glacial isostatic adjustment in response to the last ice age, combine to produce a sea level field with significant geographic variability. In this talk I will highlight an analysis of global tide gauge records that takes full advantage of this variability to estimate both GMSL and the sources of meltwater over the last century, and to project GMSL to the end of the current century.

  16. Seasonal variability in the Baltic Sea level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marek Świrgoń

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Sea level is subject to spatial and temporal variability on different scales. In this paper we investigate seasonal variability in the open Baltic Sea level using daily satellite altimetry data for the period 1 January 1993-31 December 2010. Our results indicate that there is a well-pronounced seasonal cycle in the 18-year average sea level and in its standard deviation. The average annual SLA amplitude in the open Baltic Sea is about 18 cm. The seasonal cycle of the SLA in the Baltic Sea is asymmetric in shape. In the autumn and winter (about 240-260 days per year, the 18-year average daily SLA are higher than the 18-year annual average SLA. In the spring and summer (about 100-120 days per year, the 18-year average daily SLA are lower than the 18-year annual average SLA. A similar asymmetry of the seasonal cycle is not observed in the North Sea and North Atlantic SLA data. The annual pattern of the sea level variability in the Baltic Sea is evident if one considers multi-year average time series, but the cycle can be obscured in some years.

  17. Sea level rise: A literature survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, G.H.P.

    1992-01-01

    In order to assess the impact of sea level rise on Water Management, it is useful to understand the mechanisrns that determine the level of the sea. In this study, a literature survey is executed to analyze these mechanisms. Climate plays a centra! role in these mechanisms, Climate mainly changes du

  18. A projection of future sea level

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.; Alfred-Wegener-lnstitut für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, F.R.G.

    1989-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible

  19. Solution notches, earthquakes, and sea level, Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiffman, C. R.; Mildor, B. S.; Bilham, R. G.

    2010-12-01

    Shortly after the 12 January 2010 Haiti earthquake, we installed an array of five tide gauges to determine sea level and its variability in the region of uplifted corals on the coast SW of Leogane, Haiti, that had been uplift ≤30 cm during the earthquake. Each gauge consists of a pressure transducer bolted 50-80 cm below mean sea level, which samples the difference between atmospheric pressure and sea pressure every 10 minutes. The data are transmitted via the Iridium satellite and are publically available with a latency of 10 minutes to 2 hours. The measurements reveal a maximum tidal range of ≈50 cm with 2-4 week oscillations in mean sea level of several cm. Sea slope, revealed by differences between adjacent gauges, varies 2-5 cm per 10 km at periods of 2-5 weeks, which imposes a disappointing limit to the utility of the gauges in estimating post seismic vertical motions. A parallel study of the form and elevation of coastal notches and mushroom rocks (rocks notched on all sides, hence forming a mushroom shape), along the coast west of Petit Goave suggests that these notches may provide an uplift history of the region over the past several hundreds of years. Notch sections in two areas were contoured, digitized, and compared to mean sea level. The notches mimic the histogram of sea level, suggesting that they are formed by dissolution by acidic surface waters. Notches formed two distinct levels, one approximately 58 cm above mean sea level, and the other approximately 157 cm above mean sea level. Several landslide blocks fell into the sea during the 2010 earthquake, and we anticipate these are destined for conversion to future mushroom rocks. Surfaces have been prepared on these blocks to study the rate of notch formation in situ, and samples are being subjected to acid corrosion in laboratory conditions, with the hope that the depth of notches may provide an estimate of the time of fall of previous rocks to help constrain the earthquake history of this area

  20. A NOAA/NOS Sea Level Advisory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweet, W.

    2011-12-01

    In order for coastal communities to realize current impacts and become resilient to future changes, sea level advisories/bulletins are necessary that systematically monitor and document non-tidal anomalies (residuals) and flood-watch (elevation) conditions. The need became apparent after an exceptional sea level anomaly along the U.S. East Coast in June - July of 2009 when higher than normal sea levels coincided with a perigean-spring tide and flooded many coastal regions. The event spurred numerous public inquiries to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS) from coastal communities concerned because of the lack of any coastal storm signatures normally associated with such an anomaly. A subsequent NOAA report provided insight into some of the mechanisms involved in the event and methods for tracking their reoccurrences. NOAA/CO-OPS is the U.S. authority responsible for defining sea level datums and tracking their relative changes in support of marine navigation and national and state land-use boundaries. These efforts are supported by the National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON), whose long-term and widespread observations largely define a total water level measurement impacting a coastal community. NWLON time series provide estimates of local relative sea level trends, a product increasingly utilized by various stakeholders planning for the future. NWLON data also capture significant short-term changes and conveyance of high-water variations (from surge to seasonal scale) provides invaluable insight into inundation patterns ultimately needed for a more comprehensive planning guide. A NOAA/CO-OPS Sea Level Advisory Project will enhance high-water monitoring capabilities by: - Automatically detecting sea level anomalies and flood-watch occurrences - Seasonally calibrating the anomaly thresholds to a locality in terms of flood potential - Alerting for near

  1. The future for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Sea Level Data Rescue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andrew; Rickards, Lesley; Aarup, Thorkild

    2016-04-01

    Historical sea level data are rare and unrepeatable measurements with a number of applications in climate studies (sea level rise), oceanography (ocean currents, tides, surges), geodesy (national datum), geophysics and geology (coastal land movements) and other disciplines. However, long-term time series are concentrated in the northern hemisphere and there are no records at the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) global data bank longer than 100 years in the Arctic, Africa, South America or Antarctica. Data archaeology activities will help fill in the gaps in the global dataset and improve global sea level reconstruction. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) is an international programme conducted under the auspices of the WMO-IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology. It was set up in 1985 to collect long-term tide gauge observations and to develop systems and standards "for ocean monitoring and flood warning purposes". At the GLOSS-GE-XIV Meeting in 2015, GLOSS agreed on a number of action items to be developed in the next two years. These were: 1. To explore mareogram digitisation applications, including NUNIEAU (more information available at: http://www.mediterranee.cerema.fr/logiciel-de-numerisation-des-enregistrements-r57.html) and other recent developments in scanning/digitisation software, such as IEDRO's Weather Wizards program, to see if they could be used via a browser. 2. To publicise sea level data archaeology and rescue by: • maintaining and regularly updating the Sea Level Data Archaeology page on the GLOSS website • strengthening links to the GLOSS data centres and data rescue organisations e.g. linking to IEDRO, ACRE, RDA • restarting the sea level data rescue blog with monthly posts. 3. Investigate sources of funding for data archaeology and rescue projects. 4. Propose "Guidelines" for rescuing sea level data. These action items will aid the discovery, scanning, digitising and quality control

  2. Coastal subsidence and relative sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Galloway, Devin L.

    2014-01-01

    Subsurface fluid-pressure declines caused by pumping of groundwater or hydrocarbons can lead to aquifer-system compaction and consequent land subsidence. This subsidence can be rapid, as much as 30 cm per year in some instances, and large, totaling more than 13 m in extreme examples. Thus anthropogenic subsidence may be the dominant contributor to relative sea-level rise in coastal environments where subsurface fluids are heavily exploited. Maximum observed rates of human-induced subsidence greatly exceed the rates of natural subsidence of unconsolidated sediments (~0.1–1 cm yr−1) and the estimated rates of ongoing global sea-level rise (~0.3 cm yr−1).

  3. A projection of future sea level

    OpenAIRE

    1989-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed that suggests faster sea-level rise when climate gets warmer. Four processes appear as dominating on a time scale of decades to centuries: melting of mountain glaciers and small ice caps, changes in the mass balance of the large polar ice sheets (Greenland, Antarctica), possible ice-flow instabilities (in particular on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet), and thermal expansion of ocean water. For a given temperature scenario, an attempt is made to estimate the different contrib...

  4. Gulf of Mexico sea level curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanner, W.F.; Demirpolat, S. (Florida State Univ., Tallahassee (USA)); Stapor, F.W. (Tennessee Technological Univ., Cookeville (USA)); Alvarez, L. (Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (Mexico))

    1989-09-01

    Beach ridge plains on four sides of the Gulf of Mexico produced a new, better sea level history for late Holocene time: St. Vincent Island, Florida panhandle; Sanibel Island, lower peninsula of Florida; Mesa del Gavilan, east of Brownsville, Texas; and Isla del Carmen, in the state of Campeche, Mexico. On St. Vincent Island there are more than 300 data points (elevation and relative age), each taken from a beach ridge or a swale. These ridges and swales can be grouped in sets; some sets stand high, and some are low. Their boundaries mark rises and drops of sea level. The St. Vincent Island data fall in a continuous time sequence. The types of data available on and adjacent to this island are topographic (plane-table work), sedimentological (high-precision grain size parameters), photographic (air photos), and pedologic. All of these data agree in meaning, as far as sea level history is concerned. They provide a record of changes, both up and down, in the range of about 1 m to perhaps as much as 3-4 m. Three rises and two drops in the last 6,000 years are obvious. Changes as small as 10-50 cm probably cannot be detected by the methods at hand, but it is highly unlikely, with hundreds of data points in one small study area, that major changes (1 m or more) have been overlooked. The latest change was a rise, about 800 years ago.

  5. Ice sheet systems and sea level change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rignot, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    Modern views of ice sheets provided by satellites, airborne surveys, in situ data and paleoclimate records while transformative of glaciology have not fundamentally changed concerns about ice sheet stability and collapse that emerged in the 1970's. Motivated by the desire to learn more about ice sheets using new technologies, we stumbled on an unexplored field of science and witnessed surprising changes before realizing that most were coming too fast, soon and large. Ice sheets are integrant part of the Earth system; they interact vigorously with the atmosphere and the oceans, yet most of this interaction is not part of current global climate models. Since we have never witnessed the collapse of a marine ice sheet, observations and exploration remain critical sentinels. At present, these observations suggest that Antarctica and Greenland have been launched into a path of multi-meter sea level rise caused by rapid climate warming. While the current loss of ice sheet mass to the ocean remains a trickle, every mm of sea level change will take centuries of climate reversal to get back, several major marine-terminating sectors have been pushed out of equilibrium, and ice shelves are irremediably being lost. As glaciers retreat from their salty, warm, oceanic margins, they will melt away and retreat slower, but concerns remain about sea level change from vastly marine-based sectors: 2-m sea level equivalent in Greenland and 23-m in Antarctica. Significant changes affect 2/4 marine-based sectors in Greenland - Jakobshavn Isb. and the northeast stream - with Petermann Gl. not far behind. Major changes have affected the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica since the 1980s. Smaller yet significant changes affect the marine-based Wilkes Land sector of East Antarctica, a reminder that not all marine-based ice is in West Antarctica. Major advances in reducing uncertainties in sea level projections will require massive, interdisciplinary efforts that are not currently in place

  6. [Mediate evaluation of replicating a Training Program in Nonverbal Communication in Gerontology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schimidt, Teresa Cristina Gioia; Duarte, Yeda Aparecida de Oliveira; Silva, Maria Julia Paes da

    2015-04-01

    Replicating the training program in non-verbal communication based on the theoretical framework of interpersonal communication; non-verbal coding, valuing the aging aspects in the perspective of active aging, checking its current relevance through the content assimilation index after 90 days (mediate) of its application. A descriptive and exploratory field study was conducted in three hospitals under direct administration of the state of São Paulo that caters exclusively to Unified Health System (SUS) patients. The training lasted 12 hours divided in three meetings, applied to 102 health professionals. Revealed very satisfactory and satisfactory mediate content assimilation index in 82.9%. The program replication proved to be relevant and updated the setting of hospital services, while remaining efficient for healthcare professionals.

  7. Mediate evaluation of replicating a Training Program in Nonverbal Communication in Gerontology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Cristina Gioia Schimidt

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE Replicating the training program in non-verbal communication based on the theoretical framework of interpersonal communication; non-verbal coding, valuing the aging aspects in the perspective of active aging, checking its current relevance through the content assimilation index after 90 days (mediate of its application. METHOD A descriptive and exploratory field study was conducted in three hospitals under direct administration of the state of São Paulo that caters exclusively to Unified Health System (SUS patients. The training lasted 12 hours divided in three meetings, applied to 102 health professionals. RESULTS Revealed very satisfactory and satisfactory mediate content assimilation index in 82.9%. CONCLUSION The program replication proved to be relevant and updated the setting of hospital services, while remaining efficient for healthcare professionals.

  8. The sleep of elite athletes at sea level and high altitude: a comparison of sea-level natives and high-altitude natives (ISA3600)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Gregory D; Schmidt, Walter F; Aughey, Robert J; Bourdon, Pitre C; Soria, Rudy; Claros, Jesus C Jimenez; Garvican-Lewis, Laura A; Buchheit, Martin; Simpson, Ben M; Hammond, Kristal; Kley, Marlen; Wachsmuth, Nadine; Gore, Christopher J; Sargent, Charli

    2013-01-01

    Background Altitude exposure causes acute sleep disruption in non-athletes, but little is known about its effects in elite athletes. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of altitude on two groups of elite athletes, that is, sea-level natives and high-altitude natives. Methods Sea-level natives were members of the Australian under-17 soccer team (n=14). High-altitude natives were members of a Bolivian under-20 club team (n=12). Teams participated in an 18-day (19 nights) training camp in Bolivia, with 6 nights at near sea level in Santa Cruz (430 m) and 13 nights at high altitude in La Paz (3600 m). Sleep was assessed on every day/night using activity monitors. Results The Australians’ sleep was shorter, and of poorer quality, on the first night at altitude compared with sea level. Sleep quality returned to normal by the end of the first week at altitude, but sleep quantity had still not stabilised at its normal level after 2 weeks. The quantity and quality of sleep obtained by the Bolivians was similar, or greater, on all nights at altitude compared with sea level. The Australians tended to obtain more sleep than the Bolivians at sea level and altitude, but the quality of the Bolivians’ sleep tended to be better than that of the Australians at altitude. Conclusions Exposure to high altitude causes acute and chronic disruption to the sleep of elite athletes who are sea-level natives, but it does not affect the sleep of elite athletes who are high-altitude natives. PMID:24282197

  9. Sea-Level Rise by 2100

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Church, J.A; Clark, P.A; Cazenave, A; Gregory, J.M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Levermann, A; Merrifield, M.A; Milne, G.A.; Nerem, R.S.; Nunn, P.D.; Payne, A.J.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Stammer, D.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    VOL 342 20 DECEMBER 2013 1445 LETTERS edited by Jennifer Sills 1462 COMMENTARY LETTERS I BOOKS I POLICY FORUM I EDUCATION FORUM I PERSPECTIVES 1452 Defending the nest IBI Prize Essay C R E D IT : A N D R E W M A N D E M A K E R /W IK IM E... D IA C O M M O N S Sea-Level Rise by 2100 IN HIS NEWS AND ANALYSIS PIECE REPORTING ON THE NEWLY RELEASED FIFTH ASSESSMENT report (AR5) by Working Group I (WGI) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (“A Stronger IPCC Report,” 4...

  10. Measurements of sea level off Tikkavanipalem - Coast India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.; Desai, R.G.P.; Peshwe, V.B.; Desa, E.; VijayKumar, K.; Desa, E.S.; Mehra, P.; Nagvekar, S.

    that are induced by local and remote meteorological forcings. The sea level residue (i.e. measured sea level minus the astronomically induced sea level) in this region is particularly by the local wind pattern and air pressure variations. The observed response...

  11. DUACS: Toward High Resolution Sea Level Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faugere, Y.; Gerald, D.; Ubelmann, C.; Claire, D.; Pujol, M. I.; Antoine, D.; Desjonqueres, J. D.; Picot, N.

    2016-12-01

    The DUACS system produces, as part of the CNES/SALP project, and the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service, high quality multimission altimetry Sea Level products for oceanographic applications, climate forecasting centers, geophysic and biology communities... These products consist in directly usable and easy to manipulate Level 3 (along-track cross-calibrated SLA) and Level 4 products (multiple sensors merged as maps or time series) and are available in global and regional version (Mediterranean Sea, Arctic, European Shelves …).The quality of the products is today limited by the altimeter technology "Low Resolution Mode" (LRM), and the lack of available observations. The launch of 2 new satellites in 2016, Jason-3 and Sentinel-3A, opens new perspectives. Using the global Synthetic Aperture Radar mode (SARM) coverage of S3A and optimizing the LRM altimeter processing (retracking, editing, ...) will allow us to fully exploit the fine-scale content of the altimetric missions. Thanks to this increase of real time altimetry observations we will also be able to improve Level-4 products by combining these new Level-3 products and new mapping methodology, such as dynamic interpolation. Finally these improvements will benefit to downstream products : geostrophic currents, Lagrangian products, eddy atlas… Overcoming all these challenges will provide major upgrades of Sea Level products to better fulfill user needs.

  12. Anthropogenic forcing dominates sea level rise since 1850

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2009-01-01

    The rate of sea level rise and its causes are topics of active debate. Here we use a delayed response statistical model to attribute the past 1000 years of sea level variability to various natural (volcanic and solar radiative) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases and aerosols) forcings. We show...... that until 1800 the main drivers of sea level change are volcanic and solar radiative forcings. For the past 200 years sea level rise is mostly associated with anthropogenic factors. Only 4 ± 1.5 cm (25% of total sea level rise) during the 20th century is attributed to natural forcings, the remaining 14 ± 1...

  13. Barrier response to Holocene sea-level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pejrup, Morten; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    Normally it is believed that sea-level rise causes coastal barrier retreat. However, sea-level is only one of the parameters determining the long term coastal development of barrier coasts. Sediment supply is an equally important determinant and may overshadow the effects of sea-level rise...... show quite different responses to sea-level rise. The southernmost island Rømø has survived 17 m of sea-level rise at the same position illustrating the control from sediment supply; whereas the northernmost island Skallingen has shifted its position several times during the same period indicating...... a much stronger component of sea-level control. The distance between the islands is only 50 km, and therefore our study shows that prediction of barrier development during a period of rising sea level may be more complicated than formerly believed....

  14. Global sea level change: Determination and interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, Bruce C.

    1995-07-01

    The notion of sea level rise brings to the popular mind the specter of deep inundation of coastal regions. One pictures skyscrapers emerging from the waters like so many sleeping flamingos standing in the shallows of a lake. Of course if all of the world's ice sheets suddenly melted or collapsed, this vision would apply to New York City and its coastal counterparts. But there is a general consensus that such a calamity is not an immediate threat [Houghton et al, 1990]. The actual situation for the recent historical past and near future appears to be more benign, but with nonetheless extremely significant, even devastating impacts due to erosion and flooding of coastal areas.

  15. THE INEXPENSIVE DEVICE FOR SEA LEVEL MEASUREMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Annunziato

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A new mareograph device has been designed at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission (EC in order improve the sea level network in use for the Tsunami Hazard monitoring in the Mediterranean Sea and in the North Atlantic area (NEAMTWS area of UNESCO. The instrument has the characteristic to be cheap and very effective but its reliability, duration and quality need to be determined and qualified. For this reason a number of experimental campaigns are being conducted, whose first results are presented here. In collaboration with the UNESCO/IOC (Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, responsible of the definition of the Tsunami Warning System of this geographical area, a set of 20 devices has been offered by JRC for a period of 1 year of testing of the devices; the surveys for the installation of the devices is under way and the installation should be completed by the end of 2015.

  16. Updating Maryland's sea-level rise projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boesch, Donald F.; Atkinson, Larry P.; Boicourt, William C.; Boon, John D.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Dalrymple, Robert A.; Ezer, Tal; Horton, Benjamin P.; Johnson, Zoe P.; Kopp, Robert E.; Li, Ming; Moss, Richard H.; Parris, Adam; Sommerfield, Christopher K.

    2013-01-01

    With its 3,100 miles of tidal shoreline and low-lying rural and urban lands, “The Free State” is one of the most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Historically, Marylanders have long had to contend with rising water levels along its Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean and coastal bay shores. Shorelines eroded and low-relief lands and islands, some previously inhabited, were inundated. Prior to the 20th century, this was largely due to the slow sinking of the land since Earth’s crust is still adjusting to the melting of large masses of ice following the last glacial period. Over the 20th century, however, the rate of rise of the average level of tidal waters with respect to land, or relative sea-level rise, has increased, at least partially as a result of global warming. Moreover, the scientific evidence is compelling that Earth’s climate will continue to warm and its oceans will rise even more rapidly. Recognizing the scientific consensus around global climate change, the contribution of human activities to it, and the vulnerability of Maryland’s people, property, public investments, and natural resources, Governor Martin O’Malley established the Maryland Commission on Climate Change on April 20, 2007. The Commission produced a Plan of Action that included a comprehensive climate change impact assessment, a greenhouse gas reduction strategy, and strategies for reducing Maryland’s vulnerability to climate change. The Plan has led to landmark legislation to reduce the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and a variety of state policies designed to reduce energy consumption and promote adaptation to climate change.

  17. The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level: Recent Improvements in Data Access and Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, A. P.; Bradshaw, E.; Gordon, K.; Holgate, S. J.; Jevrejeva, S.; Rickards, L. J.; Tamisiea, M.; Woodworth, P. L.

    2010-05-01

    The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level databank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL was formerly a member of the Federation of Astronomical and Geophysical Data Analysis (FAGS), and is currently being incorporated into the new World Data System (WDS) of the International Council for Science (ICSU). In addition, the PSMSL has close links with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's (IOC's) Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently the PSMSL databank holds over 58,000 station years of data from over 2,000 stations and in the region of 200 authorities worldwide. Data undergo careful quality control, including ensuring year to year continuity, before addition to the databank. Where possible, data is reduced to a common datum for time series analysis. In 2007 the PSMSL combined its monthly mean sea level activities with the higher frequency data collection from GLOSS station sites conducted by the British Oceanographic Data Centre (BODC). The PSMSL also attempts to stimulate the development of tide gauge networks at national, regional and global level. It provides training and technical advice to national sea level authorities, mainly through its work with GLOSS. It has also been closely involved in the installation and continued operation of twelve gauges in Africa and the Western Indian Ocean as part of the ODINAFRICA and Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System programmes. The PSMSL data storage systems have recently been redesigned in order to increase data integrity and take advantage of recent developments in database technology. A suite of graphical user interfaces have been developed to facilitate maintenance and quality control of the database by PSMSL staff. In addition, a new interactive data portal has been

  18. Long-term Caspian Sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J. L.; Pekker, T.; Wilson, C. R.; Tapley, B. D.; Kostianoy, A. G.; Cretaux, J.-F.; Safarov, E. S.

    2017-07-01

    Caspian Sea level (CSL) has undergone substantial fluctuations during the past several hundred years. The causes over the entire historical period are uncertain, but we investigate here large changes seen in the past several decades. We use climate model-predicted precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and observed river runoff (R) to reconstruct long-term CSL changes for 1979-2015 and show that PER (P-E + R) flux predictions agree very well with observed CSL changes. The observed rapid CSL increase (about 12.74 cm/yr) and significant drop ( -6.72 cm/yr) during the periods 1979-1995 and 1996-2015 are well accounted for by integrated PER flux predictions of +12.38 and -6.79 cm/yr, respectively. We show that increased evaporation rates over the Caspian Sea play a dominant role in reversing the increasing trend in CSL during the past 37 years. The current long-term decline in CSL is expected to continue into the foreseeable future, under global warming scenarios.

  19. Storminess helps coastal marshes withstand sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balcerak, Ernie

    2013-03-01

    Rising sea levels are predicted to threaten many coastal sea marshes around the world in the coming decades as the Earth's climate warms. In addition to accelerating sea level rise, global climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and severity of storms in many places around the world. However, few studies have taken into account how an increased storminess might affect the ability of coastal marshes to withstand sea level rise.

  20. The social values at risk from sea-level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, Sonia, E-mail: sonia.graham@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Barnett, Jon, E-mail: jbarn@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Fincher, Ruth, E-mail: r.fincher@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Hurlimann, Anna, E-mail: anna.hurlimann@unimelb.edu.au [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, The University of Melbourne, Architecture and Planning Building, Parkville, Victoria 3010 (Australia); Mortreux, Colette, E-mail: colettem@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia); Waters, Elissa, E-mail: elissa.waters@unimelb.edu.au [Department of Resource Management and Geography, The University of Melbourne, 221 Bouverie St., Carlton, Victoria 3053 (Australia)

    2013-07-15

    Analysis of the risks of sea-level rise favours conventionally measured metrics such as the area of land that may be subsumed, the numbers of properties at risk, and the capital values of assets at risk. Despite this, it is clear that there exist many less material but no less important values at risk from sea-level rise. This paper re-theorises these multifarious social values at risk from sea-level rise, by explaining their diverse nature, and grounding them in the everyday practices of people living in coastal places. It is informed by a review and analysis of research on social values from within the fields of social impact assessment, human geography, psychology, decision analysis, and climate change adaptation. From this we propose that it is the ‘lived values’ of coastal places that are most at risk from sea-level rise. We then offer a framework that groups these lived values into five types: those that are physiological in nature, and those that relate to issues of security, belonging, esteem, and self-actualisation. This framework of lived values at risk from sea-level rise can guide empirical research investigating the social impacts of sea-level rise, as well as the impacts of actions to adapt to sea-level rise. It also offers a basis for identifying the distribution of related social outcomes across populations exposed to sea-level rise or sea-level rise policies.

  1. Inception of a global atlas of Holocene sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Nicole; Rovere, Alessio; Engelhart, Simon; Horton, Benjamin

    2017-04-01

    Determining the rates, mechanisms and geographic variability of sea-level change is a priority science question for the next decade of ocean research. To address these research priorities, the HOLocene SEA-level variability (HOLSEA) working group is developing the first standardized global synthesis of Holocene relative sea-level data to: (1) estimate the magnitudes and rates of global mean sea-level change during the Holocene; and (2) identify trends in spatial variability and decipher the processes responsible for geographic differences in relative sea-level change. Here we present the preliminary efforts of the working group to compile the database, which includes sea-level index points and limiting data from a range of different indicators across seven continents from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We follow a standard protocol that incorporates full consideration of vertical and temporal uncertainty for each sea-level index point, including uncertainties associated with the relationship of each indicator to past sea-level and the methods used to date each indicator. We describe the composition of the global database, identify gaps in data availability, and highlight our effort to create an online platform to access the data. These data will be made available in a special issue of Quaternary Science Reviews and archived on NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) in early 2018. We also invite researchers who collect or model Holocene sea-level data to participate. Long-term, this effort will enhance predictions of 21st century sea-level rise, and provide a vital contribution to the assessment of natural hazards with respect to sea-level rise and coastal response.

  2. Wave transformation across coral reefs under changing sea levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Daniel; Power, Hannah; Vila-Conejo, Ana; Webster, Jody

    2015-04-01

    The transformation of swell waves from deep water across reef flats is the primary process regulating energy regimes in coral reef systems. Coral reefs are effective barriers removing up to 99% of wave energy during breaking and propagation across reef flats. Consequently back-reef environments are often considered low energy with only limited sediment transport and geomorphic change during modal conditions. Coral reefs, and specifically reef flats, therefore provide important protection to tropical coastlines from coastal erosion and recession. However, changes in sea level could lead to significant changes in the dissipation of swell wave energy in coral reef systems with wave heights dependent on the depth over the reef flat. This suggests that a rise in sea level would also lead to significantly higher energy conditions exacerbating the transgressive effects of sea level rise on tropical beaches and reef islands. This study examines the potential implications of different sea level scenarios on the transformation of waves across the windward reef flats of One Tree Reef, southern Great Barrier Reef. Waves were measured on the reef flats and back-reef sand apron of One Tree Reef. A one-dimensional wave model was calibrated and used to investigate wave processes on the reef flats under different mean sea level (MSL) scenarios (present MSL, +1 m MSL, and +2 m MSL). These scenarios represent both potential future sea level states and also the paleo sea level of the late Holocene in the southern Great Barrier Reef. Wave heights were shown to increase under sea level rise, with greater wave induced orbital velocities affecting the bed under higher sea levels. In general waves were more likely to entrain and transport sediment both on the reef flat and in the back reef environment under higher sea levels which has implications for not only forecasted climate change scenarios but also for interpreting geological changes during the late Holocene when sea levels were 1

  3. Estuaries May Face Increased Parasitism as Sea Levels Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendel, JoAnna

    2014-12-01

    Invertebrates in estuaries could be at a greater risk of parasitism as climate change causes sea levels to rise. A new paper published 8 December in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (doi:10.1073/pnas.1416747111) describes how rapid sea level rise in the Holocene affected the population of parasitic flatworms called trematodes.

  4. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Contemporary Sea Level Rise: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the "sea-level equation" (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of "fingerprints". Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the "GIA corrections" in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.

  5. Potentiality of foraminifera in deciphering paleo-sea levels

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nigam, R.

    -bearing sediment layer in Goa and Lothal Dockyard at the head of the Gulf of Khambhat (Cambay) are discussed as case-studies of sea level rise. The results indicate the possibility of higher sea level between 4,300 and 6,000 years BP. Similarly, bottom sediments...

  6. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, O. B.; Ablain, M.; Prandi, P.; Blazquez, A.; Cazenave, A.

    2017-01-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data from the ORAP5 reanalysis, and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) space gravimetry data to estimate the steric and mass components. Regional sea-level trends seen in the altimetry map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are of halosteric origin. However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled climate models from the CMIP5 project are also used. The models lead us to the same conclusions concerning the halosteric origin of the trend patterns.

  7. Sea-level-rise impacts: Questioning inevitable migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kniveton, Dominic

    2017-08-01

    It is assumed that sea-level rise due to climate change will be so severe that those living near sea level will be forced to relocate. However, new research around a series of islands that have suffered subsidence due to a recent earthquake suggests that instead, island residents remain and use a range of strategies to adapt to regular flooding.

  8. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Contemporary Sea Level Rise: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Giorgio

    2016-08-01

    Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) encompasses a suite of geophysical phenomena accompanying the waxing and waning of continental-scale ice sheets. These involve the solid Earth, the oceans and the cryosphere both on short (decade to century) and on long (millennia) timescales. In the framework of contemporary sea-level change, the role of GIA is particular. In fact, among the processes significantly contributing to contemporary sea-level change, GIA is the only one for which deformational, gravitational and rotational effects are simultaneously operating, and for which the rheology of the solid Earth is essential. Here, I review the basic elements of the GIA theory, emphasizing the connections with current sea-level changes observed by tide gauges and altimetry. This purpose is met discussing the nature of the "sea-level equation" (SLE), which represents the basis for modeling the sea-level variations of glacial isostatic origin, also giving access to a full set of geodetic variations associated with GIA. Here, the SLE is employed to characterize the remarkable geographical variability of the GIA-induced sea-level variations, which are often expressed in terms of "fingerprints". Using harmonic analysis, the spatial variability of the GIA fingerprints is compared to that of other components of contemporary sea-level change. In closing, some attention is devoted to the importance of the "GIA corrections" in the context of modern sea-level observations, based on tide gauges or satellite altimeters.

  9. The Paris Agreement's imprint on 2300 sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Nauels, Alexander; Rogelj, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

    2017-04-01

    The 2015 Paris Agreement aims at reducing climate-related risks by putting a limit to global mean temperature increase. Furthermore, global greenhouse gas emissions should peak as soon as possible and reach net-zero in the second half of the 21st century under the agreement. Sea level rise is one of the major impacts of climate change and will continue for long after emissions have ceased. Here we quantify the effect of near-term and long-term emissions constraints of the Paris Agreement on climate-driven sea level rise until 2300 using a contribution-based methodology that is consistent with the IPCC AR5 sea level estimates. We study median sea level rise for scenarios stabilizing global mean temperatures between 1.5° C and 2° C above pre-industrial levels and net-zero greenhouse gas emission scenarios that lead to declining temperatures. Once global mean temperatures pass 1.5 °C, sea level rise below one meter until 2300 is out of reach for temperature stabilization scenarios. Net-zero emissions can reduce sea level rise caused by temperature overshoot only within limits. By linking sea level rise to near-term mitigation action, we find that delayed near-term mitigation action leads to increased sea level rise far beyond 2100.

  10. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 (st) century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined wi

  11. Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A. B A; Carson, M.; Katsman, C. A.; van de Wal, R. S W; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L. L A; Stammer, D.

    2014-01-01

    We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with

  12. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, O. B.; Ablain, M.; Prandi, P.; Blazquez, A.; Cazenave, A.

    2016-11-01

    Results of the sea-level budget in the high latitudes (up to 80°N) and the Arctic Ocean during the satellite altimetry era. We investigate the closure of the sea-level budget since 2002 using two altimetry sea-level datasets based on the Envisat waveform retracking: temperature and salinity data from the ORAP5 reanalysis, and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) space gravimetry data to estimate the steric and mass components. Regional sea-level trends seen in the altimetry map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are of halosteric origin. However, in terms of regional average over the region ranging from 66°N to 80°N, the steric component contributes little to the observed sea-level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree well with the altimetry-based sea-level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus, we estimated the mass contribution from the difference between the altimetry-based sea level and the steric component. We also investigate the coastal sea level with tide gauge records. Twenty coupled climate models from the CMIP5 project are also used. The models lead us to the same conclusions concerning the halosteric origin of the trend patterns.

  13. On the Wind Stress - Sea Level Power Law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-06-01

    The response of coastal sea level to local forcing by synpotic scale winds is usually assumed to be linear in wind stress . However, the response of...response to wind stress may allow significant improvement in the analysis of some sea-level problems. (Author)

  14. Integrative study of the mean sea level and its components

    CERN Document Server

    Champollion, Nicolas; Paul, Frank; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents the most recent results of global mean sea level variations over the satellite altimetry era (starting in the early 1990s) and associated contributions, such as glaciers and ice sheets mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and land water storage changes. Sea level is one of the best indicators of global climate changes as it integrates the response of several components of the climate system to external forcing factors (including anthropogenic forcing) and internal climate variability. Providing long, accurate records of the sea level at global and regional scales and of the various components causing sea level changes is of crucial importance to improve our understanding of climate processes at work and to validate the climate models used for future projections. The Climate Change Initiative project of the European Space Agency has provided a first attempt to produce consistent and continuous space-based records for several climate parameters observable from space, among them sea level. Th...

  15. Dynamics of sea level variations in the coastal Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Churchill, James; Abulnaja, Yasser; Nellayaputhenpeedika, Mohammedali; Limeburner, Richard; Lentz, Steven

    2016-04-01

    Sea level variations in the central Red Sea coastal zone span a range of roughly 1.2 m. Though relatively small, these water level changes can significantly impact the environment over the shallow reef tops prevalent in the central Red Sea, altering the water depth by a factor or two or more. While considerable scientific work has been directed at tidal and seasonal variations of Red Sea water level, very little attention has been given to elevation changes in an 'intermediate' frequency band, with periods of 2-30 d, even though motions in this band account for roughly half of the sea level variance in central Red Sea. We examined the sea level signal in this band using AVISO sea level anomaly (SLA) data, COARDAS wind data and measurements from pressure sensors maintained for more than five years at a number of locations in Saudi Arabian coastal waters. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the SLA data indicates that longer-period (10-30 d) sea level variations in the intermediate band are dominated by coherent motions in a single mode that extends over most of the Red Sea axis. Idealized model results indicate that this large-scale mode of sea level motion is principally due to variations in the large-scale gradient of the along-axis wind. Our analysis indicates that coastal sea level motions at shorter periods (2-10 d) are principally generated by a combination of direct forcing by the local wind stress and forcing associated with large-scale wind stress gradients. However, also contributing to coastal sea level variations in the intermediate frequency band are mesoscale eddies, which are prevalent throughout the Red Sea basin, have a sea level signal of 10's of cm and produce relatively small-scale (order 50 km) changes in coastal sea level.

  16. Sea Level Data Archaeology for the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Matthews, Andy; Rickards, Lesley; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2015-04-01

    The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) was set up in 1985 to collect long term tide gauge observations and has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, including sending member organisations questionnaires to report on their repositories. The GLOSS Group of Experts (GLOSS GE) is looking to future developments in sea level data archaeology and will provide its user community with guidance on finding, digitising, quality controlling and distributing historic records. Many records may not be held in organisational archives and may instead by in national libraries, archives and other collections. GLOSS will promote a Citizen Science approach to discovering long term records by providing tools for volunteers to report data. Tide gauge data come in two different formats, charts and hand-written ledgers. Charts are paper analogue records generated by the mechanical instrument driving a pen trace. Several GLOSS members have developed software to automatically digitise these charts and the various methods were reported in a paper on automated techniques for the digitization of archived mareograms, delivered to the GLOSS GE 13th meeting. GLOSS is creating a repository of software for scanning analogue charts. NUNIEAU is the only publically available software for digitising tide gauge charts but other organisations have developed their own tide gauge digitising software that is available internally. There are several other freely available software packages that convert image data to numerical values. GLOSS could coordinate a comparison study of the various different digitising software programs by: Sending the same charts to each organisation and asking everyone to digitise them using their own procedures Comparing the digitised data Providing recommendations to the GLOSS community The other major form of analogue sea level data is handwritten ledgers, which are usually observations of high and low waters, but sometimes contain higher

  17. Sea-Level Rise Impacts on Hudson River Marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooks, A.; Nitsche, F. O.

    2015-12-01

    The response of tidal marshes to increasing sea-level rise is uncertain. Tidal marshes can adapt to rising sea levels through vertical accretion and inland migration. Yet tidal marshes are vulnerable to submergence if the rate of sea-level rise exceeds the rate of accretion and if inland migration is limited by natural features or development. We studied how Piermont and Iona Island Marsh, two tidal marshes on the Hudson River, New York, would be affected by sea-level rise of 0.5m, 1m, and 1.5m by 2100. This study was based on the 2011-2012 Coastal New York LiDAR survey. Using GIS we mapped sea-level rise projections accounting for accretion rates and calculated the submerged area of the marsh. Based on the Hudson River National Estuarine Research Reserve Vegetation 2005 dataset, we studied how elevation zones based on vegetation distributions would change. To evaluate the potential for inland migration, we assessed land cover around each marsh using the National Land Cover Database 2011 Land Cover dataset and examined the slope beyond the marsh boundaries. With an accretion rate of 0.29cm/year and 0.5m of sea-level rise by 2100, Piermont Marsh would be mostly unchanged. With 1.5m of sea-level rise, 86% of Piermont Marsh would be flooded. For Iona Island Marsh with an accretion rate of 0.78cm/year, sea-level rise of 0.5m by 2100 would result in a 4% expansion while 1.5m sea-level rise would cause inundation of 17% of the marsh. The results indicate that Piermont and Iona Island Marsh may be able to survive rates of sea-level rise such as 0.5m by 2100 through vertical accretion. At rates of sea-level rise like 1.5m by 2100, vertical accretion cannot match sea-level rise, submerging parts of the marshes. High elevations and steep slopes limit Piermont and Iona Island Marsh's ability to migrate inland. Understanding the impacts of sea-level rise on Piermont and Iona Island Marsh allows for long-term planning and could motivate marsh conservation programs.

  18. An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System for Sea Level Prediction Considering Tide-Generating Forces and Oceanic Thermal Expansion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Ching Lin Hsien-Kuo Chang

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system for predicting sea level considering tide-generating forces and oceanic thermal expansion assuming a model of sea level dependence on sea surface temperature. The proposed model named TGFT-FN (Tide-Generating Forces considering sea surface Temperature and Fuzzy Neuro-network system is applied to predict tides at five tide gauge sites located in Taiwan and has the root mean square of error of about 7.3 - 15.0 cm. The capability of TGFT-FN model is superior in sea level prediction than the previous TGF-NN model developed by Chang and Lin (2006 that considers the tide-generating forces only. The TGFT-FN model is employed to train and predict the sea level of Hua-Lien station, and is also appropriate for the same prediction at the tide gauge sites next to Hua-Lien station.

  19. Simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change in southwest Scandinavia from inversion of sea level data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars; Hansen, Jens Morten; Hede, Mikkel Ulfeldt

    2014-01-01

    Scandinavia from modern relative sea level data series that cover the period from 1900 to 2000. In both approaches, a priori information is required to solve the inverse problem. A priori information about the average vertical lithospheric movement in the area of interest is critical for the quality......Relative sea level curves contain coupled information about absolute sea level change and vertical lithospheric movement. Such curves may be constructed based on, for example tide gauge data for the most recent times and different types of geological data for ancient times. Correct account...... the relative sea level data. Similar independent data do not exist for ancient times. The purpose of this study is to test two simple inversion approaches for simultaneous estimation of lithospheric uplift rates and absolute sea level change rates for ancient times in areas where a dense coverage of relative...

  20. A policy hackathon for analysing impacts and solutions up to 20 metres sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Bouwer, Laurens; Kwadijk, Jaap

    2017-04-01

    We organised a policy hackathon in order to quantify the impacts accelerated and high-end sea-level rise up to 20 metres on the coast of the Netherlands, and develop possible solutions. This was done during one day, with 20 experts that had a wide variety of disciplines, including hydrology, geology, coastal engineering, economics, and public policy. During the process the problem was divided up into several sub-sets of issues that were analysed and solved within small teams of between 4 to 8 people. Both a top-down impact analysis and bottom-up vulnerability analysis was done by answering the questions: What is the impact of sea level rise of x meter?; and How much sea level rise can be accommodated with before transformative actions are needed? Next, adaptation tipping points were identified that describe conditions under which the coastal system starts to perform unacceptably. Reasons for an adaptation tipping point can be technical (technically not possible), economic (cost-benefits are negative), or resources (available space, sand, energy production, financial). The results are presented in a summary document, and through an infographic displaying different adaptation tipping points and milestones that occur when the sea level rises up to 20 m. No technical limitations were found for adaptation, but many important decisions need to be taken. Although accelerated sea level rise seems far away it can have important consequences for short-term decisions that are required for transformative actions. Such extensive actions require more time for implementation. Also, other action may become ineffective before their design life. This hackathon exercise shows that it is possible to map within a short time frame the issues at hand, as well as potentially effective solutions. This can be replicated for other problems, and can be useful for several decision-makers that require quick but in-depth analysis of their long-term planning problems.

  1. Upper Limit for Sea Level Projections by 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2015-04-01

    With more than 150 million people living within 1 m of high tide future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (AR5 IPCC) noted that a 0.5 m rise in mean sea level will result in a dramatic increase the frequency of high water extremes - by an order of magnitude, or more in some regions. Thus the flood threat to the rapidly growing urban populations and associated infrastructure in coastal areas are major concerns for society. Hence, impact assessment, risk management, adaptation strategy and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on projections of mean sea level and crucially its low probability, high impact, upper range. We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica.

  2. Sea level change: lessons from the geologic record

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    1995-01-01

    Rising sea level is potentially one of the most serious impacts of climatic change. Even a small sea level rise would have serious economic consequences because it would cause extensive damage to the world's coastal regions. Sea level can rise in the future because the ocean surface can expand due to warming and because polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers can melt, increasing the ocean's volume of water. Today, ice caps on Antarctica and Greenland contain 91 and 8 percent of the world's ice, respectively. The world's mountain glaciers together contain only about 1 percent. Melting all this ice would raise sea level about 80 meters. Although this extreme scenario is not expected, geologists know that sea level can rise and fall rapidly due to changing volume of ice on continents. For example, during the last ice age, about 18,000 years ago, continental ice sheets contained more than double the modem volume of ice. As ice sheets melted, sea level rose 2 to 3 meters per century, and possibly faster during certain times. During periods in which global climate was very warm, polar ice was reduced and sea level was higher than today.

  3. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-01

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (sea level extremes, up to 50% in low-tidal basins. The intensity of these oscillations is zonally correlated with mid-tropospheric winds at the 99% significance level, with the variance doubling from the tropics and subtropics to the mid-latitudes. Specific atmospheric patterns are found during strong events at selected locations in the World Ocean, indicating a globally predominant generation mechanism. Our analysis suggests that these oscillations should be considered in sea level hazard assessment studies. Establishing a strong correlation between nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates.

  4. Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tkalich

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Sea level in the Singapore Strait (SS exhibits response to various scale phenomena, from local to global. Longest tide gauge records in SS are analysed to derive local sea level trend and annual, inter-annual and multi-decadal sea level variability, which then are attributed to regional and global phenomena. Annual data gaps are reconstructed using functions correlating sea level variability with ENSO. At annual scale, sea level anomalies in SS are (quasi-periodic monsoon-driven, of the order of ±20 cm, the highest during northeast monsoon and the lowest during southwest monsoon. Interannual regional sea level drops are associated with El Niño events, while the rises are correlated with La Niña episodes; both variations are in the range of ±5 cm. At multi-decadal scale, annual measured sea levels in SS are varying with global mean sea level, rising at the rate 1.2–1.7 mm yr−1 for 1975–2009, 1.8–2.3 mm yr−1 for 1984–2009 and 1.9–4.6 mm yr−1 for 1993–2009. When SS rates are compared with the global trends (2.0, 2.4 and 2.8 mm yr−1, respectively derived from tide gauge measurements for the same periods, they are smaller in the earlier era and considerably larger in the recent one. Taking into account the first estimate of land subsidence rate, 1–1.5 mm yr−1 in Singapore, the recent trend of absolute sea level rise in SS follows regional tendency.

  5. Sea level rise with warming above 2 degree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Jackson, Luke; Riva, Riccardo; Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John

    2017-04-01

    Holding the increase in the global average temperature to below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C, has been agreed by the representatives of the 196 parties of United Nations, as an appropriate threshold beyond which climate change risks become unacceptably high. Sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of warming climate for the more than 600 million people living in low-elevation coastal areas less than 10 meters above sea level. Fragile coastal ecosystems and increasing concentrations of population and economic activity in coastal areas, are reasons why future sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Furthermore, sea level is set to continue to rise for centuries after greenhouse gas emissions concentrations are stabilised due to system inertia and feedback time scales. Impact, risk, adaptation policies and long-term decision making in coastal areas depend on regional and local sea level rise projections and local projections can differ substantially from the global one. Here we provide probabilistic sea level rise projections for the global coastline with warming above the 2 degree goal. A warming of 2°C makes global ocean rise on average by 20 cm, but more than 90% of coastal areas will experience greater rises, 40 cm along the Atlantic coast of North America and Norway, due to ocean dynamics. If warming continues above 2°C, then by 2100 sea level will rise with speeds unprecedented throughout human civilization, reaching 0.9 m (median), and 80% of the global coastline will exceed the global ocean sea level rise upper 95% confidence limit of 1.8 m. Coastal communities of rapidly expanding cities in the developing world, small island states, and vulnerable tropical coastal ecosystems will have a very limited time after mid-century to adapt to sea level rises.

  6. Sea level variations at tropical Pacific islands since 1950

    OpenAIRE

    M. Becker; Meyssignac, B.; Letetrel, C.; Llovel, W.; A. Cazenave; Delcroix, Thierry

    2012-01-01

    The western tropical Pacific is usually considered as one of the most vulnerable regions of the world under present-day and future global warming. It is often reported that some islands of the region already suffer significant sea level rise. To clarify the latter concern, in the present study we estimate sea level rise and variability since 1950 in the western tropical Pacific region (20 degrees S-15 degrees N; 120 degrees E-135 degrees W). We estimate the total rate of sea level change at s...

  7. Benchmarking and testing the “Sea Level Equation”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spada, G.; Barletta, Valentina Roberta; Klemann, V.

    . This study has taken place within a collaboration facilitated through the Eu-ropean Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0701. The tests involve predictions of past and current sea level variations, and 3D deformations of the Earth surface. In spite of the significant differences...... from the interpretation of modern satellite geodetic measurements to the projections of future sea level trends in response to climate change. All the processes accompanying GIA can be described solving the so-called Sea Level Equation (SLE), an integral equation that accounts for the interactions be...

  8. Past and future changes in extreme sea levels and waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Lawe, J.A.; Woodworth, P.L.; Knutson, T.; McDonald, R.E.; Mclnnes, K.L.; Woth, K.; Von Storch, H.; Wolf, J.; Swail, V.; Bernier, N.B.; Gulev, S.; Horsburgh, K.J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Hunter, J.R.; Weisse, R.

    stream_size 143507 stream_content_type text/plain stream_name Understanding_Sea_Level_rise_Variability_2010_Chapter_11_326.pdf.txt stream_source_info Understanding_Sea_Level_rise_Variability_2010_Chapter_11_326.pdf.txt Content.... This was compounded by the rate of local mean sea-level rise relative to the land level of the Mississippi Delta of several times the global average, as occurs naturally in all major deltas, together with anthropogenic changes to the delta wetlands. On much longer...

  9. Improving sea level simulation in Mediterranean regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adloff, Fanny; Jordà, Gabriel; Somot, Samuel; Sevault, Florence; Arsouze, Thomas; Meyssignac, Benoit; Li, Laurent; Planton, Serge

    2017-08-01

    For now, the question about future sea level change in the Mediterranean remains a challenge. Previous climate modelling attempts to estimate future sea level change in the Mediterranean did not meet a consensus. The low resolution of CMIP-type models prevents an accurate representation of important small scales processes acting over the Mediterranean region. For this reason among others, the use of high resolution regional ocean modelling has been recommended in literature to address the question of ongoing and future Mediterranean sea level change in response to climate change or greenhouse gases emissions. Also, it has been shown that east Atlantic sea level variability is the dominant driver of the Mediterranean variability at interannual and interdecadal scales. However, up to now, long-term regional simulations of the Mediterranean Sea do not integrate the full sea level information from the Atlantic, which is a substantial shortcoming when analysing Mediterranean sea level response. In the present study we analyse different approaches followed by state-of-the-art regional climate models to simulate Mediterranean sea level variability. Additionally we present a new simulation which incorporates improved information of Atlantic sea level forcing at the lateral boundary. We evaluate the skills of the different simulations in the frame of long-term hindcast simulations spanning from 1980 to 2012 analysing sea level variability from seasonal to multidecadal scales. Results from the new simulation show a substantial improvement in the modelled Mediterranean sea level signal. This confirms that Mediterranean mean sea level is strongly influenced by the Atlantic conditions, and thus suggests that the quality of the information in the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) is crucial for the good modelling of Mediterranean sea level. We also found that the regional differences inside the basin, that are induced by circulation changes, are model-dependent and thus not

  10. Sea-level rise modeling handbook: Resource guide for coastal land managers, engineers, and scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Chivoiu, Bogdan; Enwright, Nicholas M.

    2015-08-24

    Global sea level is rising and may accelerate with continued fossil fuel consumption from industrial and population growth. In 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey conducted more than 30 training and feedback sessions with Federal, State, and nongovernmental organization (NGO) coastal managers and planners across the northern Gulf of Mexico coast to evaluate user needs, potential benefits, current scientific understanding, and utilization of resource aids and modeling tools focused on sea-level rise. In response to the findings from the sessions, this sea-level rise modeling handbook has been designed as a guide to the science and simulation models for understanding the dynamics and impacts of sea-level rise on coastal ecosystems. The review herein of decision-support tools and predictive models was compiled from the training sessions, from online research, and from publications. The purpose of this guide is to describe and categorize the suite of data, methods, and models and their design, structure, and application for hindcasting and forecasting the potential impacts of sea-level rise in coastal ecosystems. The data and models cover a broad spectrum of disciplines involving different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting environmental change and ecosystem response. These data and models have not heretofore been synthesized, nor have appraisals been made of their utility or limitations. Some models are demonstration tools for non-experts, whereas others require more expert capacity to apply for any given park, refuge, or regional application. A simplified tabular context has been developed to list and contrast a host of decision-support tools and models from the ecological, geological, and hydrological perspectives. Criteria were established to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic datasets; physical and biological constraints and relations; datum characteristics of water and land components

  11. Grain-size based sea-level reconstruction in the south Bohai Sea during the past 135 kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Liang; Chen, Yanping

    2013-04-01

    Future anthropogenic sea-level rise and its impact on coastal regions is an important issue facing human civilizations. Due to the short nature of the instrumental record of sea-level change, development of proxies for sea-level change prior to the advent of instrumental records is essential to reconstruct long-term background sea-level changes on local, regional and global scales. Two of the most widely used approaches for past sea-level changes are: (1) exploitation of dated geomorphologic features such as coastal sands (e.g. Mauz and Hassler, 2000), salt marsh (e.g. Madsen et al., 2007), terraces (e.g. Chappell et al., 1996), and other coastal sediments (e.g. Zong et al., 2003); and (2) sea-level transfer functions based on faunal assemblages such as testate amoebae (e.g. Charman et al., 2002), foraminifera (e.g. Chappell and Shackleton, 1986; Horton, 1997), and diatoms (e.g. Horton et al., 2006). While a variety of methods has been developed to reconstruct palaeo-changes in sea level, many regions, including the Bohai Sea, China, still lack detailed relative sea-level curves extending back to the Pleistocene (Yi et al., 2012). For example, coral terraces are absent in the Bohai Sea, and the poor preservation of faunal assemblages makes development of a transfer function for a relative sea-level reconstruction unfeasible. In contrast, frequent alternations between transgression and regression has presumably imprinted sea-level change on the grain size distribution of Bohai Sea sediments, which varies from medium silt to coarse sand during the late Quaternary (IOCAS, 1985). Advantages of grainsize-based relative sea-level transfer function approaches are that they require smaller sample sizes, allowing for replication, faster measurement and higher spatial or temporal resolution at a fraction of the cost of detail micro-palaeontological analysis (Yi et al., 2012). Here, we employ numerical methods to partition sediment grain size using a combined database of

  12. Global mapping of nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka

    2017-01-01

    Present investigations of sea level extremes are based on hourly data measured at coastal tide gauges. The use of hourly data restricts existing global and regional analyses to periods larger than 2 h. However, a number of processes occur at minute timescales, of which the most ruinous are tsunamis. Meteotsunamis, hazardous nonseismic waves that occur at tsunami timescales over limited regions, may also locally dominate sea level extremes. Here, we show that nonseismic sea level oscillations at tsunami timescales (tsunami timescales and atmospheric synoptic patterns would allow for forecasting of nonseismic sea level oscillations for operational use, as well as hindcasting and projection of their effects under past, present and future climates. PMID:28098195

  13. Eastern Equatorial Pacific Sea Level Pressure (1949-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains standardized sea level pressure anomalies over the equatorial eastern Pacific region...

  14. Climate Prediction Center Tahiti Sea Level Pressure (1951-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains Tahiti sea level pressures and anomalies during 1951-present. The anomalies are departures...

  15. Sea Level Rise Projections for DSL-SAMBI

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This dataset is output from the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) for the South Atlantic Migratory Bird Initiative (SAMBI) geographic planning region. It...

  16. Overestimation of marsh vulnerability to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Temmerman, Stijn; Skeehan, Emily E.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Coastal marshes are considered to be among the most valuable and vulnerable ecosystems on Earth, where the imminent loss of ecosystem services is a feared consequence of sea level rise. However, we show with a meta-analysis that global measurements of marsh elevation change indicate that marshes are generally building at rates similar to or exceeding historical sea level rise, and that process-based models predict survival under a wide range of future sea level scenarios. We argue that marsh vulnerability tends to be overstated because assessment methods often fail to consider biophysical feedback processes known to accelerate soil building with sea level rise, and the potential for marshes to migrate inland.

  17. Holocene sea levels of Visakhapatnam shelf, east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, K.M.; Rao, T.C.S.

    The Holocene sea level changes in the shelf areas off Visakhapatnam was studied from sediment distribution pattern and shallow seismic profiling. Morphological features on the shelf indicate a Late Pleistocene regression down to about -130 m below...

  18. [Book review] Sea level rise: history and consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossman, Eric E.

    2004-01-01

    Review of: Sea level Rise: history and consequences. Bruce Douglas, Michael S. Kearney and Stephen P. Leatherman (eds), Sand Diego: Academic Press, 2001, 232 pp. plus CD-RIM, US$64.95, hardback. ISBN 0-12-221345-9.

  19. Changes in Absolute Sea Level Along U.S. Coasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This map shows changes in absolute sea level from 1960 to 2016 based on satellite measurements. Data were adjusted by applying an inverted barometer (air pressure)...

  20. USGS Map service: Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The coastal vulnerability index (CVI)provides a preliminary overview, at a National scale, of the relative susceptibility of the Nation's coast to sea-level rise....

  1. Thermosteric Sea Level Rise Projections with Parametric Uncertainty

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — These files contain spatial fields of simulated yearly thermosteric sea-level anomalies between 1951-2100 (referenced to year 1800) from a perturbed physics ensemble...

  2. USGS Map service: Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The coastal vulnerability index (CVI)provides a preliminary overview, at a National scale, of the relative susceptibility of the Nation's coast to sea-level rise....

  3. Seasonal sea level variability and anomalies in the Singapore Strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Babu, M.T.; Pokratath, P.

    Environmental Agency and Maritime Port Authority. Discussions with NUS and Deltares colleagues, Vladan BABOVIC and Herman GERRITSEN, have been most fruitful. REFERENCES Cabanes, C., Cazenzve, A., Le Provost, C., 2001. Sea level rise during past 40...

  4. Humboldt Nay NWR Sea-level rise modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Baseline information required to assess sea-level rise impacts to marsh habitats will be compiled. The project will provide relevant information to local managers...

  5. Climate Prediction Center Indonesia Sea Level Pressure (1949-present)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains standardized sea level pressure anomalies over the equatorial Indonesia region...

  6. Regional sea level change in the Thailand-Indonesia region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenoglio-Marc, L.; Becker, M. H.; Buchhaupt, C.

    2013-12-01

    It is expected that the regional sea level rise will strongly affect particular regions with direct impacts including submergence of coastal zones, rising water tables and salt intrusion into groundwaters. It can possibly also exacerbate other factors as floodings, associated to storms and hurricanes, as well as ground subsidence of anthropogenic nature. The Thailand-Vietnam-Indonesian region is one of those zones. On land, the Chao-Praya and Mekong Delta are fertile alluvial zones. The potential for sea level increases and extreme floodings due to global warming makes the Deltas a place where local, regional, and global environmental changes are converging. We investigate the relative roles of regional and global mechanisms resulting in multidecadal variations and inflections in the rate of sea level change. Altimetry and GRACE data are used to investigate the variation of land floodings. The land surface water extent is evaluated at 25 km sampling intervals over fifteen years (1993-2007) using a multisatellite methodology which captures the extent of episodic and seasonal inundations, wetlands, rivers, lakes, and irrigated agriculture, using passive and active (microwaves and visible observations. The regional sea level change is analysed during the period 1993-2012 using satellite altimetry, wind and ocean model data, tide gauge data and GPS. The rates of absolute eustatic sea level rise derived from satellite altimetry through 19-year long precise altimeter observations are in average higher than the global mean rate. Several tide gauge records indicate an even higher sea level rise relative to land. We show that the sea level change is closely linked to the ENSO mode of variability and strongly affected by changes in wind forcing and ocean circulation. We have determined the vertical crustal motion at a given tide gauge location by differencing the tide gauge sea level time-series with an equivalent time-series derived from satellite altimetry and by computing

  7. The multimillennial sea-level commitment of global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levermann, Anders; Clark, Peter U; Marzeion, Ben; Milne, Glenn A; Pollard, David; Radic, Valentina; Robinson, Alexander

    2013-08-20

    Global mean sea level has been steadily rising over the last century, is projected to increase by the end of this century, and will continue to rise beyond the year 2100 unless the current global mean temperature trend is reversed. Inertia in the climate and global carbon system, however, causes the global mean temperature to decline slowly even after greenhouse gas emissions have ceased, raising the question of how much sea-level commitment is expected for different levels of global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Although sea-level rise over the last century has been dominated by ocean warming and loss of glaciers, the sensitivity suggested from records of past sea levels indicates important contributions should also be expected from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. Uncertainties in the paleo-reconstructions, however, necessitate additional strategies to better constrain the sea-level commitment. Here we combine paleo-evidence with simulations from physical models to estimate the future sea-level commitment on a multimillennial time scale and compute associated regional sea-level patterns. Oceanic thermal expansion and the Antarctic Ice Sheet contribute quasi-linearly, with 0.4 m °C(-1) and 1.2 m °C(-1) of warming, respectively. The saturation of the contribution from glaciers is overcompensated by the nonlinear response of the Greenland Ice Sheet. As a consequence we are committed to a sea-level rise of approximately 2.3 m °C(-1) within the next 2,000 y. Considering the lifetime of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, this imposes the need for fundamental adaptation strategies on multicentennial time scales.

  8. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    OpenAIRE

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise paleoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 +/- 1{\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, bu...

  9. The importance of sea-level research (Plinius Medal Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    200 million people worldwide live in coastal regions less than 5 meters above sea level. By the end of the 21st century, this figure is estimated to increase to 500 million. These low-lying coastal regions are vulnerable to changes in sea level brought about by climate change, storms or earthquakes. But the historic and instrumental record is too short to fully understand the climate relationships and capture the occurrence of the rare, but most destructive events. The coastal sedimentary record provides a long-term and robust paleo perspective on the rates, magnitudes and spatial variability of sea-level rise and the frequency (recurrence interval) and magnitude of destructive events. Reconstructions of paleo sea level are important for identifying the meltwater contributions, constraining parameters in Earth-Ice models, and estimating past and present rates of spatially variable sea-level change associated glacial isostatic adjustment, sediment compaction and tidal range variability. Sea-level reconstructions capture multiple phases of climate and sea-level behavior for model calibration and provide a pre-anthropogenic background against which to compare recent trends. Pre-historic earthquakes (Mw>8.0) are often associated with abrupt and cyclical patterns of vertical land-motion that are manifest in coastal sedimentary archives as abrupt changes in relative sea level. Geologic evidence of paleoearthquakes elucidates characteristic and repeated pattern of land-level movements associated with the earthquake-deformation cycle. Tsunamis and storms leave behind anomalous and characteristic sediment that is incorporated into the coastal sedimentary record often as evidence of a high-energy event affecting a low-energy, depositional environment. Records of tsunamis developed from the sedimentary deposits they leave behind improve understanding of tsunami processes and frequency by expanding the age range of events available for study. Reconstructions of paleo storms

  10. Mangrove Retreat with Rising Sea-level, Bermuda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Joanna C.

    1993-07-01

    Low island mangroves keep up with slow sea-level rise by peat accumulation. Holocene stratigraphic records show that they maintain the same pace as sea-level rise at rates up to 9 cm/100 years. Tide gauge records from Bermuda since 1932 show sea-level rise at a rate of 28 cm/100 years. The largest mangrove area (6·26 acres) at Hungry Bay has for the last 2000 years been building peat at a rate of 8·5 to 10·6 cm/100 years. Retreat of the seaward edge has caused loss of 2·24 acres of mangroves, commencing in the last few hundred years, with a second dieback between 1900 and 1947, and a third dieback in the last decade. The substrate elevation of the seaward margin of mangroves is below mean sea-level, the normal lower limit for mangroves. Present dieback shows problems of erosion indicating that the Bruun Rule of beach erosion with sea-level rise is also appropriate for mangrove swamps. Stratigraphy shows that before 4000 BP sea-level rose at a rate of 25 cm/100 years, from 4000 to 1000 years BP the rate of sea-level rise declined to 6 cm/100 years during which time mangroves established, and in the last 1000 years there was an increase to 14·3 cm/100 years, during which time the mangroves died back. This study indicates that low island mangroves will experience problems with the rates of sea-level rise predicted for the next 50 years.

  11. Explaining trends and variability in coastal relative sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2016-04-01

    Comprehensive understanding of trends and variability in coastal mean sea level is vital for protecting shores under a changing climate. To understand the behavior of coastal relative sea level (RSL), it is crucial to identify all relevant processes. We combine data from various geophysical models and observations to determine whether the trends and decadal variability observed in relative sea level at tide gauges can be explained by the sum of all known contributors. A key contributor to RSL is vertical land motion, which is caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), solid earth response to surface loading, tectonics, and local effects. We explicitly model low-frequency loading effects to correct GPS records, which leads to a more consistent trend than only using GIA models. Secondly, we create sea level fingerprints based on estimates of ice melt and changes in land hydrology, which provide the RSL contribution due to large-scale mass transport. Since coastal areas are often located on shallow continental shelves, steric effects will generally be small, and a large fraction of the decadal sea level variability will have a remote steric origin. Therefore, we determine a relation between coastal sea level and deep sea steric variability. For the period 1950-2012, we find that for many locations, including the European coast, the observed and modeled RSL time series agree well on decadal and secular scales.

  12. Vulnerability of Turkish coasts to accelerated sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alpar, Bedri

    2009-06-01

    Accelerated rise in sea-level, and associated geological adjustment, may result in a high impact on shorelines. On the basis of hourly sea-level observations over a 20 year period, sea-level change along the Turkish coast has been investigated. In addition to relative sea-level rise, the high level of human activities in coastal areas puts a significant amount of stress on Turkish coastal zones, especially on coastal lowland plains. Coastal erosion and ground water salinization are the most important impacts and two case studies are discussed in this paper: the Kizilirmak river delta on the Black Sea; and the tourism center of Erdek on the Marmara Sea. Coastal retreat on the Kizilirmak river delta is mostly attributed to decreasing sediment supply to the coast. The shore barriers and the enclosed lagoons are likely to respond readily to future sea-level rise. At Erdek, the most important threat is intrusion of salt water into freshwater systems caused by a combination of accelerated sea-level rise, land reclamation and overexploitation of underground aquifers.

  13. Potential impact of sea level rise on French islands worldwide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celine Bellard

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Although sea level rise is one of the most certain consequences of global warming, yet it remains one of the least studied. Several studies strongly suggested that sea level rise will accelerate in the future with a potentially rise from 0.5 to 2 m at the end of the century. However, currently island conservation programs do not take into account the potential effects of sea level rise. Therefore, we investigated the potential consequences of sea level rise for 1,269 French islands worldwide, by assessing the total number of island that will be totally submerged for three different scenarios (1, 2 and 3 m. Under the worst scenario, up to 12% of all islands could be entirely submerged. Two regions displayed the most significant loss of island: New Caledonia and French Polynesia. Focusing on New Caledonia, we highlighted that endemic plant species that are already classified as critically endangered by the IUCN will be the most vulnerable to sea level rise. Losses of insular habitats will thus be important in the next decades for the French islands. Given that French islands covers all latitudes in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic oceans and in the Mediterranean, our results suggested that the implications for the 180 000 islands around the world should be considerable. Therefore, decision makers are required to define island conservation priorities that will suffer of the future sea level rise.

  14. Sea Levels Online: Sea Level Variations of the United States Derived from National Water Level Observation Network Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Water level records are a combination of the fluctuations of the ocean and the vertical land motion at the location of the station. Monthly mean sea level (MSL)...

  15. Integrating Non-Tidal Sea Level data from altimetry and tide gauges for coastal sea level prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2012-01-01

    The main objective of this paper is to integrate Non-Tidal Sea Level (NSL) from the joint TOPEX, Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellite altimetry with tide gauge data at the west and north coast of the United Kingdom for coastal sea level prediction. The temporal correlation coefficient between altimetric...... frequency NSL variation (i.e., every 15min) during a storm surge event at an independent tide gauge station at the Northeast of the UK (Aberdeen)....

  16. Climate And Sea Level: It's In Our Hands Now

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turrin, M.; Bell, R. E.; Ryan, W. B. F.

    2014-12-01

    Changes in sea level are measurable on both a local and a global scale providing an accessible way to connect climate to education, yet engaging teachers and students with the complex science that is behind the change in sea level can be a challenge. Deciding how much should be included and just how it should be introduced in any single classroom subject area can be an obstacle for a teacher. The Sea Level Rise Polar Explorer App developed through the PoLAR CCEP grant offers a guided tour through the many layers of science that impact sea level rise. This map-based data-rich app is framed around a series of questions that move the user through map layers with just the level of complexity they chose to explore. For a quick look teachers and students can review a 3 or 4 sentence introduction on how the given map links to sea level and then launch straight into the interactive touchable map. For a little more in depth look they can listen to (or read) a one-minute recorded background on the data displayed in the map prior to launching in. For those who want more in depth understanding they can click to a one page background piece on the topic with links to further visualizations, videos and data. Regardless of the level of complexity selected each map is composed of clickable data allowing the user to fully explore the science. The different options for diving in allow teachers to differentiate the learning for either the subject being taught or the user level of the student group. The map layers also include a range of complexities. Basic questions like "What is sea level?" talk about shorelines, past sea levels and elevations beneath the sea. Questions like "Why does sea level change?" includes slightly more complex issues like the role of ocean temperature, and how that differs from ocean heat content. And what is the role of the warming atmosphere in sea level change? Questions about "What about sea level in the past?" can bring challenges for students who have

  17. Sea level Variability and Juan de Fuca Bathymetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huybers, P. J.; Boulahanis, B.; Proistosescu, C.; Langmuir, C. H.; Carbotte, S. M.; Katz, R. F.

    2015-12-01

    That deglaciation influences mid-ocean ridge volcanism is well established for Iceland, where depressurization associated with melting a ~2 km ice cap led to order of magnitude increases in volcanism during the last deglaciation. The case was also made that the more subtle ~100 m changes in sea level that accompany glacial cycles have identifiable implications for undersea mid-ocean ridge systems using both models and data from the Australian-Antarctic Ridge (Crowley et al., 2015). Sea level rising at ~1 cm/year during deglaciation leads to an expectation of ~10% decreases in melt production at ridges, given mantle upwelling rates of ˜3 cm/yr at intermediate spreading ridges and mantle density being ~3 times that of seawater. The implications of variations in melt production for bathymetry, however, involve numerous considerations, including whether melt signals are cancelled within the melt column, appreciably alter accretionary or fault processes, and have identifiable surface expressions. Further empirical assessment of bathymetry is thus useful for purposes of confirming patterns and constraining processes. Here we report on spectral analyses of bathymetry recently acquired from the Juan de Fuca ridge between 44°30'N and 45°15'N during the SeaVOICE expedition. Multibeam swath sonar data were acquired with an EM122 sonar insonfiying seafloor to crustal ages of ˜2 ma with 35 m spatial resolution. We examine (1.) the statistical significance of concentrations of bathymetric variability at the 100 ky, 41 ky, and 23 ky periods characteristic of late-Pleistocene sea level variability; (2.) whether sea level responses are primarily at 41 ky periods in crust accreted during the early Pleistocene, when global sea level variations were primarily at this period; and (3.) if sea level responses are superimposed on bathymetry variations or, instead, align with fault features. We also note that Juan de Fuca's proximity to the Cordilleran Ice Sheet implies that regional

  18. Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

    2011-01-01

    On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

  19. Climate Variabilities of Sea Level around the Korean Peninsula

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yong-Hoon YOUN; Im Sang OH; Young-Hyang PARK; Ki-Hyun KIM

    2004-01-01

    In order to study the climate variabilities of the sea level around the Korean Peninsula, tidal data observed at local stations in Korea were compared against those obtained using TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetric sea level data. In the course of our study, the amount of sea level rise was estimated using the tidal data from 9 stations selected by an anomaly coherency analysis. The results indicated that the sea level has risen by 0.28 cm yr-1 around the Korean Peninsula over the past two decades. The extent of such a rise is about two times higher than that of the global increase (0.1-0.2 cm yr-1). However,because most global warming effects occurred mainly over mid- and high-latitudes, this level of change appears to be realistic. According to the spectral analysis (at a spectral window of k = 2, k is the number of subdivisions), the decadal band of sea level variability is computed at 30% of the energy. Its spectral peak is found at 12.8 years. In the interannual band, the predominant sea level variability is in the 1.4-1.9-year band, with a sharp peak at 1.6 years. A secondary peak, although marginal, has a period of 2.2years. Based on our estimates of sea level height from Topex/Poseidon, the quasi-biennial periodicity of 1.6 years is the representative interannual sea level variability in the seas adjacent to Korea. Trends vary greatly according to the geographical location, from a maximum of 1.0 cm yr-1 (the southern sector of the East Sea) to a minimum of 0.17 cm yr-1 (the northern sector of the East Sea). This is fairly consistent with the qualitative description already given with reference to the global map. As an analogue to the pattern seen in Korea, that of the Yellow Sea reveals practically the same trend as that of the adjacent seas (0.56 cm yr-1). However, in the case of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) data, there is no clear evidence of a linkage between the interannual sea level variability around the Korean Peninsula and ENSO.

  20. Holocene sea level, a semi-empirical contemplation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittermann, Klaus; Kemp, Andrew; Vermeer, Martin; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Holocene eustatic sea level from approximately -10,000-1800 CE was characterized by an increase of about 60 m, with the rate progressively slowing down until sea level almost stabilizes between 500-1800 CE. Global and northern-hemisphere temperatures rose from the last glacial termination until the 'Holocene Optimum'. From there, up to the start of the recent anthropogenic rise, they almost steadily decline. How are the sea-level and temperature evolutions linked? We investigate this with a semi-empirical sea-level model. We found that, due to the nature of Milankovitch forcing, northern-hemisphere temperature (we used the Greenland temperature by Vinther et al., 2009) is a better model driver than global mean temperature because the evolving mass of northern-hemisphere land ice was the dominant cause of Holocene global sea-level trends. The adjustment timescale for this contribution is 1200 years (900-1500 years; 90% confidence interval). To fit the observed sea-level history, the model requires a small additional constant rate (Bittermann 2016). This rate turns out to be of the same order of magnitude as reconstructions of Antarctic sea-level contributions (Briggs et al. 2014, Golledge et al. 2014). In reality this contribution is unlikely to be constant but rather has a dominant timescale that is large compared to the time considered. We thus propose that Holocene sea level can be described by a linear combination of a temperature driven rate, which becomes negative in the late Holocene (as Northern Hemisphere ice masses are diminished), and a positive, approximately constant term (possibly from Antarctica), which starts to dominate from the middle of the Holocene until the start of industrialization. Bibliography: Bittermann, K. 2016. Semi-empirical sea-level modelling. PhD Thesis University of Potsdam. Briggs, R.D., Pollard, D., & Tarasov, L. 2014. A data-constrained large ensemble analysis of Antarctic evolution since the Eemian. Quaternary science reviews

  1. Sea Level Rise and Subsidence in the Gulf of Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemnil, Sommart

    In the Thailand -EC GEO2TECDI-SONG Project we investigate the sea level change and vertical land motion in Thailand. First, Bangkok is situated in river delta and average height is closed to sea level. Second, it is subsiding due to ground water extraction. Third, it is experiencing post-seismic motion due to nearby mega thrust earthquakes and fourth, it suffers from rising of sea levels due to global climate change. This poses a serious threat on Thai society and economy. Before mitigation methods can be devised we aim at charting, qualifying and quantifying all contributing effects by the use of satellite altimetry, GNSS, InSAR techniques and combining results with the in situ observations like tide gauge and with geophysical modeling. Adding GPS based vertical land motion to the tide gauge sea level registration reveals the absolute sea level change, which is nicely confirmed by altimetry. We find an average absolute rise of 3.5 mm/yr + 0.7, but nears mouth of Chao Praya River (Bangkok) and the Mekong delta (Ho Chi Min City), this mounts to 4 to 5 mm/yr, faster than global average. This is reinforced when accounting for the tectonic subsidence that resulted from 2004 9.1Mw Sumatra/Andaman earthquake; from 2005 onwards we find downfall in the order of 10 mm/yr. RADARSAT InSAR analyses show subsidence rates up to 25 mm/yr at many places along coastal Bangkok.

  2. Cenozoic sea level and the rise of modern rimmed atolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, Michael; Ashton, Andrew; Raymo, Maureen E.; Perron, J. Taylor

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level records from atolls, potentially spanning the Cenozoic, have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that control atoll form (reef accretion, carbonate dissolution, sediment transport, vertical motion) are complex and, for many islands, unconstrained on million-year timescales. Here we combine existing observations of atoll morphology and corelog stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll with a numerical model to (1) constrain the relative rates of subsidence, dissolution and sedimentation that have shaped modern Pacific atolls and (2) construct a record of sea level over the past 8.5 million years. Both the stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll (constrained by a subsidence rate of ~ 20 m/Myr) and our numerical modeling results suggest that low sea levels (50–125 m below present), and presumably bi-polar glaciations, occurred throughout much of the late Miocene, preceding the warmer climate of the Pliocene, when sea level was higher than present. Carbonate dissolution through the subsequent sea-level fall that accompanied the onset of large glacial cycles in the late Pliocene, along with rapid highstand constructional reef growth, likely drove development of the rimmed atoll morphology we see today.

  3. Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation

    CERN Document Server

    Levermann, A; Hofmann, M; Montoya, M; Rahmstorf, S; Levermann, Anders; Griesel, Alexa; Hofmann, Matthias; Montoya, Marisa; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2004-01-01

    Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3a, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of change can be up to 20-25 mm/yr. The emerging patterns are discussed with respect to the oceanic circulation changes. Most prominent is a south-north gradient reflecting the changes in geostrophic surface currents. Our results suggest that an analysis of observed sea level change patterns could be useful for monitoring the THC strength.

  4. Evidence for long-term memory in sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Rybski, Diego; Mudersbach, Christoph; Müller, Alfred; Kaufmann, Edgar; Zorita, Eduardo; Jensen, Jürgen

    2014-08-01

    Detection and attribution of anthropogenic climate change signals in sea level rise (SLR) has experienced considerable attention during the last decades. Here we provide evidence that superimposed on any possible anthropogenic trend there is a significant amount of natural decadal and multidecadal variability. Using a set of 60 centennial tide gauge records and an ocean reanalysis, we find that sea levels exhibit long-term correlations on time scales up to several decades that are independent of any systematic rise. A large fraction of this long-term variability is related to the steric component of sea level, but we also find long-term correlations in current estimates of mass loss from glaciers and ice caps. These findings suggest that (i) recent attempts to detect a significant acceleration in regional SLR might underestimate the impact of natural variability and (ii) any future regional SLR threshold might be exceeded earlier/later than from anthropogenic change alone.

  5. A new perspective on global mean sea level (GMSL) acceleration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Phil J.

    2016-06-01

    The vast body of contemporary climate change science is largely underpinned by the premise of a measured acceleration from anthropogenic forcings evident in key climate change proxies -- greenhouse gas emissions, temperature, and mean sea level. By virtue, over recent years, the issue of whether or not there is a measurable acceleration in global mean sea level has resulted in fierce, widespread professional, social, and political debate. Attempts to measure acceleration in global mean sea level (GMSL) have often used comparatively crude analysis techniques providing little temporal instruction on these key questions. This work proposes improved techniques to measure real-time velocity and acceleration based on five GMSL reconstructions spanning the time frame from 1807 to 2014 with substantially improved temporal resolution. While this analysis highlights key differences between the respective reconstructions, there is now more robust, convincing evidence of recent acceleration in the trend of GMSL.

  6. Land-ice modeling for sea-level prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipscomb, William H [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2010-06-11

    There has been major progress in ice sheet modeling since IPCC AR4. We will soon have efficient higherorder ice sheet models that can run at ",1 km resolution for entire ice sheets, either standalone or coupled to GeMs. These models should significantly reduce uncertainties in sea-level predictions. However, the least certain and potentially greatest contributions to 21st century sea-level rise may come from ice-ocean interactions, especially in West Antarctica. This is a coupled modeling problem that requires collaboration among ice, ocean and atmosphere modelers.

  7. Uncertainties in sea level projections on twenty-year timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinogradova, Nadya; Davis, James; Landerer, Felix; Little, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Regional decadal changes in sea level are governed by various processes, including ocean dynamics, gravitational and solid earth responses, mass loss of continental ice, and other local coastal processes. In order to improve predictions and physical attribution in decadal sea level trends, the uncertainties of each processes must be reflected in the sea level calculations. Here we explore uncertainties in predictions of the decadal and bi-decadal changes in regional sea level induced by the changes in ocean dynamics and associated redistribution of heat and freshwater (often referred to as dynamic sea level). Such predictions are typically based on the solutions from coupled atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models, including a suite of climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercompasion Project (CMIP5). Designed to simulate long-term ocean variability in response to warming climate due to increasing green-house gas concentration ("forced" response), CMIP5 are deficient in simulating variability at shorter time scales. In contrast, global observations of sea level are available during a relatively short time span (e.g., twenty-year altimetry records), and are dominated by an "unforced" variability that occurs freely (internally) within the climate system. This makes it challenging to examine how well observations compare with model simulations. Therefore, here we focus on patterns and spatial characteristics of projected twenty-year trends in dynamic sea level. Based on the ensemble of CMIP5 models, each comprising a 240-year run, we compute an envelope of twenty-year rates, and analyze the spread and spatial relationship among predicted rates. An ensemble root-mean-square average exhibits large-scale spatial patterns, with the largest uncertainties found over mid and high latitudes that could be attributed to the changes in wind patterns and buoyancy forcing. To understand and parameterize spatial characteristics of the

  8. Coastal flooding by tropical cyclones and sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodruff, Jonathan D; Irish, Jennifer L; Camargo, Suzana J

    2013-12-05

    The future impacts of climate change on landfalling tropical cyclones are unclear. Regardless of this uncertainty, flooding by tropical cyclones will increase as a result of accelerated sea-level rise. Under similar rates of rapid sea-level rise during the early Holocene epoch most low-lying sedimentary coastlines were generally much less resilient to storm impacts. Society must learn to live with a rapidly evolving shoreline that is increasingly prone to flooding from tropical cyclones. These impacts can be mitigated partly with adaptive strategies, which include careful stewardship of sediments and reductions in human-induced land subsidence.

  9. Long-period sea-level variations in the Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerbini, Susanna; Raicich, Fabio; Bruni, Sara; del Conte, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Prati, Claudio; Santi, Efisio

    2016-04-01

    Since the beginning of its long-lasting lifetime, the Wegener initiative has devoted careful consideration to studying sea-level variations/changes across the Mediterranean Sea. Our study focuses on several long-period sea-level time series (from end of 1800 to 2012) acquired in the Mediterranean by tide gauge stations. In general, the analysis and interpretation of these data sets can provide an important contribution to research on climate change and its impacts. We have analyzed the centennial sea-level time series of six fairly well documented tide gauges. They are: Marseille, in France, Alicante in Spain, Genoa, Trieste, Venice and Marina di Ravenna (formerly Porto Corsini), in Italy. The data of the Italian stations of Marina di Ravenna and Venice clearly indicate that land subsidence is responsible for most of the observed rate of relative sea level rise. It is well known that, in the two areas, subsidence is caused by both natural processes and human activities. For these two stations, using levelling data of benchmarks at, and/or close to, the tide gauges, and for the recent years, also GPS and InSAR height time series, modelling of the long-period non-linear behavior of subsidence was successfully accomplished. After removing the land vertical motions, the estimate of the linear long-period sea-level rise at all six stations yielded remarkably consistent values, between +1,2 and +1,3 mm/yr, with associated errors ranging from ±0,2 to ±0,3 mm/yr (95% confidence interval), which also account for the statistical autocorrelation of the time series. These trends in the Mediterranean area are lower than the global mean rate of 1,7±0,2 mm/yr (1901-2010) presented by the IPCC in its 5th Assessment Report; however, they are in full agreement with a global mean sea-level rise estimate, over the period 1901-1990, recently published by Hay et al. (2015, doi:10.1038/nature14093) and obtained using probabilistic techniques that combine sea-level records with physics

  10. Dynamic sea level changes following changes in the thermohaline circulation

    OpenAIRE

    Levermann, Anders; Griesel, Alexa; Hofmann, Matthias; Montoya Redondo, María Luisa; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2005-01-01

    Using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3a, we investigate changes in sea surface elevation due to a weakening of the thermohaline circulation (THC). In addition to a global sea level rise due to a warming of the deep sea, this leads to a regional dynamic sea level change which follows quasi-instantaneously any change in the ocean circulation. We show that the magnitude of this dynamic effect can locally reach up to ~1m, depending on the initial THC strength. In some regions the rate of chang...

  11. Sea-level rise risks to coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the consequence of sea-level rise for coastal cities has long lead times and huge political implications. Civilisation has emerged and developed during a period of several thousand years during which in geological terms sea level has been unusually stable. We have now moved out of this period and the challenge will be to develop a long-term proactive assessment approach to manage this challenge. In 2005 there were 136 coastal cities with a population exceeding one million people and a collective population of 400 million people. All these coastal cities are threatened by flooding from the sea to varying degrees and these risks are increasing due to growing exposure (people and assets), rising sea levels due to climate change, and in some cities, significant coastal subsidence due to human agency (drainage and groundwater withdrawals from susceptible soils). In these cities we wish to avoid major flood events, with associated damage and potentially deaths and ultimately decline of the cities. Flood risks grow with sea-level rise as it raises extreme sea levels. As sea levels continue to rise, protection will have to be progressively upgraded. Even with this, the magnitude of losses when flood events do occur would increase as coastal cities expand, and water depths and hence unit damage increase with sea-level rise/subsidence. This makes it critical to also prepare for larger coastal flood disasters than we experience today and raises questions on the limits to adaptation. There is not an extensive literature or significant empirical information on the limits to adaptation in coastal cities. These limits are not predictable in a formal sense - while the rise in mean sea level raises the likelihood of a catastrophic flood, extreme events are what cause damage and trigger a response, be it abandonment, a defence upgrade or something else. There are several types of potential limits that could be categorised into three broad types: • Physical

  12. Sea level differences across the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlotnicki, Victor

    1991-01-01

    The sea level differences between the Sargasso Sea and the slope waters across the Gulf Stream region, averaged between 73 and 61 deg W, and the comparable areas across the Kuroshio extension region, averaged between 143 and 156 deg E, were estimated using the Geosat altimeter data obtained between November 1986 and December 1988. The sea-level differences between the two regions showed a strong correlation between the northwest Atlantic and Pacific, dominated by annual cycles that peak in late-September to mid-October, with about 9 cm (the Gulf Stream region) and about 6.9 cm (Kuroshio region) amplitudes.

  13. Land Sea Level Difference Impacts on Socio-Hydrological System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, K.; Yu, D. J.; Oh, W. S.; Sangwan, N.

    2016-12-01

    Allowing moderate shocks can be a new solution that helps to build adaptive capacity in society is a rising issue. In Social-Ecological field, Carpenter et al. (2015) suggested that exposure to short-term variability leads to long term resilience by enlarging safe operating space (SOS). The SOS refers to the boundary of favorable state that ecosystem can maintain resilience without imposing certain conditions (Carpenter et al. 2015). Our work is motivated by defining SOS in socio-hydrological system(SHS) because it can be an alternative way for flood management beyond optimized or robust flood control. In this context, large flood events that make system to cross the SOS should be fully managed, but frequent small floods need to be allowed if the system is located in SOS. Especially, land sea level change is critical factor to change flood resilience since it is one of the most substantial disturbance that changes the entire boundary of SOS. In order to have broader perspective of vulnerability and resilience of the coastal region, it is crucial to understand the land sea level dynamics changed with human activities and natural variances.The risk of land sea level change has been researched , but most of these researches have focused on explain cause and effect of land sea level change, paying little attention to its dynamics interacts with human activities. Thus, an objective of this research is to study dynamics of human work, land sea level change and resilience to flood with SOS approach. Especially, we focus on the case in Ganges-Brahmaputra, Bangladesh where has high vulnerability to flood, and is faced with relatively rapid land sea level change problem. To acheive the goal, this study will develop a stylized model by extending the human - flood interaction model combined with relative sea level difference equation. The model describes the dynamics of flood protection system which is changed by SHS and land sea level chage. we will focus on the aggradation

  14. Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majewski, Jedrzej; Pham, Dat; Meltzner, Aron; Switzer, Adam; Horton, Benjamin; Heng, Shu Yun; Warrick, David

    2015-04-01

    Tracking multidecadal trends in sea level using coral microatolls Jędrzej M. Majewski 1, Dat T. Pham1, Aron J. Meltzner 1, Adam D. Switzer 1, Benjamin P. Horton2, Shu Yun Heng1, David Warrick3, 1 Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 2 Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA 3 Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA Coral microatolls can be used to study relative sea-level change at multidecadal timescales associated with vertical land movements, climate induced sea-level rise and other oceanographic phenomena such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) with the assumption that the highest level of survival (HLS) of coral microatolls track sea level over the course of their lifetimes. In this study we compare microatoll records covering from as early as 1883 through 2013, from two sites in Indonesia, with long records (>20 years) from proximal tide gauges, satellite altimetry, and other sea-level reconstructions. We compared the HLS time series derived from open-ocean and moated (or ponded) microatolls on tectonically stable Belitung Island and a potentially tectonically active setting in Mapur Island, with sea-level reconstructions for 1950-2011. The sea-level reconstructions are based on ground and satellite measurements, combining a tide model with the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) model. Our results confirm that open-ocean microatolls do track low water levels at multi decadal time scales and can be used as a proxy for relative sea level (RSL) over time. However, microatolls that are even partially moated are unsuitable and do not track RSL; rather, their growth patterns likely reflect changes in the elevation of the sill of the local pond, as reported by earlier authors. Our ongoing efforts will include an attempt to recognize similarities in moated

  15. Sea-level in the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the Common Era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Timothy; García-Artola, Ane; Engelhart, Simon; Kemp, Andrew; Cahill, Niamh; Nikitina, Daria; Corbett, Reide; Brain, Matthew; Vane, Christopher; Walker, Jennifer; Pilarczyk, Jessica; Clear, Jennifer; Horton, Benjamin

    2016-04-01

    Understanding of Common Era sea-level change is fragmentary compared to understanding of temperature variability, for which several global syntheses have been generated. This limitation prevents accurate assessment of the Common Era relationship between temperature and global mean sea level (GMSL), including the sea-level response to climate phases such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Previous records of relative sea-level (RSL) change along the U.S. Atlantic coast during the Common Era have revealed spatial and temporal variability that reflects differences in the static-equilibrium effects of land ice changes and/or to ocean dynamic effects. Here we present two new RSL records spanning the Common Era from saltmarsh sites in the Delaware Bay and Chesapeake Bay. Motivation for this work stems from discrepancies in the timing and magnitude of sea-level changes for the mid-Atlantic coast. This region also experiences some of the highest rates of 20th century RSL change (up to ~5 mm/yr) along the U.S. Atlantic Coast. At Delaware Bay and Chesapeake Bay, extensive stratigraphic surveys revealed thick sequences of salt-marsh peat ideally suited to proxy-based RSL reconstructions utilizing foraminifera. Estimates of paleo marsh elevation were provided through contemporary training sets incorporating modern analogues from the full range of intertidal environments and subtracted from surveyed altitudes to provide RSL trends. Temporal constraints on sea-level changes were incorporated into a Bayesian framework using a composite chronology composed of AMS radiocarbon dating, short-lived radionuclides, regional pollution histories and pollen chronohorizons documenting land clearance events. The reconstructions showed a similar pre-instrumental RSL rise of ~1.1 - 1.6 mm/yr in Delaware Bay and Chesapeake Bay, respectively. The rate of RSL rise in both regions during the past ~130 years coincides with the increased rate observed in instrumental

  16. Detecting sea-level hazards: Simple regression-based methods for calculating the acceleration of sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Howd, Peter A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.

    2016-01-04

    This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results.

  17. Sea-level rise: towards understanding local vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmstorf, Stefan

    2012-06-01

    Projections of global sea-level rise into the future have become more pessimistic over the past five years or so. A global rise by more than one metre by the year 2100 is now widely accepted as a serious possibility if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated. That is witnessed by the scientific assessments that were made since the last IPCC report was published in 2007. The Delta Commission of the Dutch government projected up to 1.10 m as a 'high-end' scenario (Vellinga et al 2009). The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) projected up to 1.40 m (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research 2009), and the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) gives a range of 0.90-1.60 m in its 2011 report (Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme 2011). And recently the US Army Corps of Engineers recommends using a 'low', an 'intermediate' and a 'high' scenario for global sea-level rise when planning civil works programmes, with the high one corresponding to a 1.50 m rise by 2100 (US Army Corps of Engineers 2011). This more pessimistic view is based on a number of observations, most importantly perhaps the fact that sea level has been rising at least 50% faster in the past decades than projected by the IPCC (Rahmstorf et al 2007, IPCC 2007). Also, the rate of rise (averaged over two decades) has accelerated threefold, from around 1 mm yr-1 at the start of the 20th century to around 3 mm yr-1 over the past 20 years (Church and White 2006), and this rate increase closely correlates with global warming (Rahmstorf et al 2011). The IPCC projections, which assume almost no further acceleration in the 20th century, thus look less plausible. And finally the observed net mass loss of the two big continental ice sheets (Van den Broeke et al 2011) calls into question the assumption that ice accumulation in Antarctica would largely balance ice loss from Greenland in the course of further global warming (IPCC 2007). With such a serious sea-level rise on the horizon

  18. Diurnal variations of serum erythropoietin at sea level and altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, T; Poulsen, T D; Fogh-Andersen, N

    1996-01-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that the diurnal variations of serum-erythropoietin concentration (serum-EPO) observed in normoxia also exist in hypoxia. The study also attempted to investigate the regulation of EPO production during sustained hypoxia. Nine subjects were investigated at sea level...... and during 4 days at an altitude of 4350 m. Median sea level serum-EPO concentration was 6 (range 6-13) U.l-1. Serum-EPO concentration increased after 18 and 42 h at altitude, [58 (range 39-240) and 54 (range 36-340) U.l-1, respectively], and then decreased after 64 and 88 h at altitude [34 (range 18...... in 2, 3 diphosphoglycerate. After 64 h at altitude, six of the nine subjects had down-regulated their serum-EPO concentrations so that median values were three times above those at sea level. These six subjects had significant diurnal variations of serum-EPO concentration at sea level; the nadir...

  19. The sea level fingerprint of recent ice mass fluxes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bamber, J.; Riva, R.E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the first decade of the 21st Century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009). This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea le

  20. The sea level fingerprint of recent ice mass fluxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bamber

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the first decade of the 21st Century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009. This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea level signature for ice mass fluxes due to changes in the gravity field, Earth's rotation and related effects for the nine year period 2000–2008. Mass loss from Greenland results in a relative sea level (RSL reduction for much of North Western Europe and Eastern Canada. RSL rise from this source is concentrated around South America. Losses in West Antarctica marginally compensate for this and produce maxima along the coastlines of North America, Australia and Oceania. The combined far-field pattern of wastage from all ice melt sources, is dominated by losses from the ice sheets and results in maxima at latitudes between 20° N and 40° S across the Pacific and Indian Oceans, affecting particularly vulnerable land masses in Oceania. The spatial pattern of RSL variations from ice mass losses used in this study is time-invariant and cumulative. Thus, sea level rise, based on the gravitational effects from the ice losses considered here, will be amplified for this sensitive region.

  1. Glacier fluctuations, global temperature and sea-level change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leclercq, P.W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/339579951

    2012-01-01

    The current world-wide glacier retreat is a clear sign of global warming. In addition, glaciers contribute to sea-level rise as a consequence of the current retreat. In this thesis we use records of past glacier fluctuations to reconstruct past climate variations and the glacier contribution to

  2. Seasonal Change of Steric Sea Level in the GIN Seas

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Lei; WANG Huijuan; SUN Ruili

    2011-01-01

    The Greenland Sea, Iceland Sea, and Norwegian Sea (GIN seas) form the main channel connecting the Arctic Ocean with other Oceans, where significant water and energy exchange take place, and play an important role in global climate change. In this study steric sea level, associated with temperature and salinity, in the GIN seas is examined based on analysis of the monthly temperature and salinity fields from Polar science center Hydrographic Climatology (PHC3.0). A method proposed by Tabata et al. is used to calculate steric sea level, in which, steric sea level change due to thermal expansion and haline contraction is termed as the thermosteric component (TC) and the halosteric component (SC), recpectively. Total steric sea level (TSSL) change is the sum of TC and SC. The study shows that SC is making more contributions than TC to the seasonal change of TSSL in the Greenland Sea, whereas TC contributes more in the Norwegian and the Iceland Seas. Annual variation of TSSL is larger than 50ram over most regions of the GIN Seas, and can be larger than 200mm at some locations such as 308mm at 76.5°N, 12.5°E and 246mm at 77.50N, 17.5°W.

  3. Does Sea Level Change when a Floating Iceberg Melts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Boon Leong

    2010-01-01

    On the answer page to a recent "Figuring Physics" question, the cute mouse asks another question: "Does the [sea] water level change if the iceberg melts?" The conventional answer is "no." However, in this paper I will show through a simple analysis involving Archimedes' principle that the sea level will rise. The analysis shows the wrong…

  4. Arctic Sea Level During the Satellite Altimetry Era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carret, A.; Johannessen, J. A.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2017-01-01

    from the ORAP5 reanalysis, and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) space gravimetry data to estimate the steric and mass components. Regional sea-level trends seen in the altimetry map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland, are of halosteric origin...

  5. Preparing Coastal Parks for Future Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, R.; Peek, K.

    2012-04-01

    The United States National Park Service (NPS) manages significant stretches of shoreline along the U.S. Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf Coasts that are vulnerable to long-term sea level rise, shoreline erosion, and storm impacts. These parks have a wide variety of missions— protecting some of the nation's most important natural and cultural resources. The parks must also provide visitor access and education requiring infrastructure such as roads, visitor centers, trails, and buildings for facilities management. Planning for the likely impacts from sea level rise to both resources and infrastructure is a complex balancing act. Using coastal engineering to protect cultural resources or infrastructure may harm natural resources. At the same time, there are clearly some cultural and historical resources that are so critical that they must be protected. In an attempt to begin to attack this dilemma, the NPS Climate Change Response Program has initiated a sea level rise adaptation study that will provide a first-order tally of the park assets at risk to sea level rise and to begin to develop a plan for prioritizing those assets that must be protected, those that can be moved or abandoned, and an examination of how best to approach this without harming critical natural resources. This presentation will discuss the preliminary results of this effort along with several relevant case studies.

  6. Sea Level Activities and Changes on the Islands of the

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sea Level Activities and Changes on the Islands of the. Western Indian ... that there is a discernible human influence on global climate” ..... reef—based and coral reefs serve as natural .... and the station at Rodrigues, damaged during the.

  7. Does Sea Level Change when a Floating Iceberg Melts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Boon Leong

    2010-01-01

    On the answer page to a recent "Figuring Physics" question, the cute mouse asks another question: "Does the [sea] water level change if the iceberg melts?" The conventional answer is "no." However, in this paper I will show through a simple analysis involving Archimedes' principle that the sea level will rise. The analysis shows the wrong…

  8. Integrating conservation costs into sea level rise adaptive conservation prioritization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingjian Zhu

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Biodiversity conservation requires strategic investment as resources for conservation are often limited. As sea level rises, it is important and necessary to consider both sea level rise and costs in conservation decision making. In this study, we consider costs of conservation in an integrated modeling process that incorporates a geomorphological model (SLAMM, species habitat models, and conservation prioritization (Zonation to identify conservation priorities in the face of landscape dynamics due to sea level rise in the Matanzas River basin of northeast Florida. Compared to conservation priorities that do not consider land costs in the analysis process, conservation priorities that consider costs in the planning process change significantly. The comparison demonstrates that some areas with high conservation values might be identified as lower priorities when integrating economic costs in the planning process and some areas with low conservation values might be identified as high priorities when considering costs in the planning process. This research could help coastal resources managers make informed decisions about where and how to allocate conservation resources more wisely to facilitate biodiversity adaptation to sea level rise.

  9. Sea level trend and variability in the Singapore Strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Luu, Q.-H.; Babu, M.T.

    (SODA) ocean reanalysis, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C09006, doi:10.1029/2004JC002817, 2005. Chambers, D. P., Melhaff, C. A., Urban, T. J., Fuji, D., and Nerem, R. S.: Low-frequency variations in global mean sea level: 1950– 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 3026...

  10. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans -- the Joint Archive for Sea Level holdings as of October 2015 (NCEI Accession 0019568)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center and the National Centers for Environmental Information...

  11. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Carling C.; Morrow, Eric; Kopp, Robert E.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.

    2015-01-01

    Estimating and accounting for twentieth-century global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is critical to characterizing current and future human-induced sea-level change. Several previous analyses of tide gauge records--employing different methods to accommodate the spatial sparsity and temporal incompleteness of the data and to constrain the geometry of long-term sea-level change--have concluded that GMSL rose over the twentieth century at a mean rate of 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year. Efforts to account for this rate by summing estimates of individual contributions from glacier and ice-sheet mass loss, ocean thermal expansion, and changes in land water storage fall significantly short in the period before 1990. The failure to close the budget of GMSL during this period has led to suggestions that several contributions may have been systematically underestimated. However, the extent to which the limitations of tide gauge analyses have affected estimates of the GMSL rate of change is unclear. Here we revisit estimates of twentieth-century GMSL rise using probabilistic techniques and find a rate of GMSL rise from 1901 to 1990 of 1.2 +/- 0.2 millimetres per year (90% confidence interval). Based on individual contributions tabulated in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this estimate closes the twentieth-century sea-level budget. Our analysis, which combines tide gauge records with physics-based and model-derived geometries of the various contributing signals, also indicates that GMSL rose at a rate of 3.0 +/- 0.7 millimetres per year between 1993 and 2010, consistent with prior estimates from tide gauge records. The increase in rate relative to the 1901-90 trend is accordingly larger than previously thought; this revision may affect some projections of future sea-level rise.

  12. Relative sea-level changes during the Holocene in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashid, Towhida; Suzuki, S.; Sato, Hiroshi; Monsur, M. H.; Saha, S. K.

    2013-03-01

    This paper presents a reconstruction of the Holocene paleo-environment in the central part of Bangladesh in relation to relative sea-level changes 200 km north of the present coastline. Lithofacies characteristics, mangal peat, diatoms and paleophysiographical evidence were considered to reconstruct the past position and C-14 ages were used to determine the time of formation of the relative sea level during the Holocene. With standard reference datum, the required m.s.l. at the surface of five sections was calculated. The relative sea-level (RSL) curve suggests that Bangladesh experienced two mid-Holocene RSL transgressions punctuated by regressions. The curve shows an RSL highstand at approximately 7500 cal BP, although the height of this highstand could not be determined because the transgressive phase was observed in a bioturbated sand flat facies. The curve shows a regression of approximately 6500 cal BP, and the RSL was considerably lower, perhaps 1-2 m, than the present m.s.l. The abundant marine diatoms and mangrove pollens indicate the highest RSL transgression in Bangladesh at approximately 6000 cal BP, being at least 4.5 to 5 m higher than the modern m.s.l. After this phase, the relative sea level started to fall, and consequently, a freshwater peat developed at approximately 5980-5700 cal BP. The abundant mangrove pollens in the salt-marsh succession shows the regression at approximately 5500 cal BP, when it was 1-2 m higher than the modern sea level. The curve indicates that at approximately 5000 cal BP and onwards, the RSL started to fall towards its present position, and the present shoreline of Bangladesh was established at approximately 1500 cal BP and has not noticeably migrated inland since.

  13. Sea level rise projections for northern Europe under RCP8.5

    OpenAIRE

    Grinsted, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; R. E. M. Riva; D. Dahl-Jensen

    2015-01-01

    Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the British Isles, the Baltic Sea, and the North Sea. The input to the regional sea level projection is a probabilistic projection of the major components of the global sea level budget. Local sea lev...

  14. Modelling sea level data from China and Malay-Thailand to estimate Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Sarah L.; Milne, Glenn A.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Zong, Yongqiang

    2016-04-01

    This study presents a new model of Holocene ice-volume equivalent sea level (ESL), extending a previously published global ice sheet model (Bassett et al., 2005), which was unconstrained from 10 kyr BP to present. This new model was developed by comparing relative sea level (RSL) predictions from a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model to a suite of Holocene sea level index points from China and Malay-Thailand. Three consistent data-model misfits were found using the Bassett et al. (2005) model: an over-prediction in the height of maximum sea level, the timing of this maximum, and the temporal variation of sea level from the time of the highstand to present. The data-model misfits were examined for a large suite of ESL scenarios and a range of earth model parameters to determine an optimum model of Holocene ESL. This model is characterised by a slowdown in melting at ∼7 kyr BP, associated with the final deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, followed by a continued rise in ESL until ∼1 kyr BP of ∼5.8 m associated with melting from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. It was not possible to identify an earth viscosity model that provided good fits for both regions; with the China data preferring viscosity values in the upper mantle of less than 1.5 × 1020 Pa s and the Malay-Thailand data preferring greater values. We suggest that this inference of a very weak upper mantle for the China data originates from the nearby subduction zone and Hainan Plume. The low viscosity values may also account for the lack of a well-defined highstand at the China sites.

  15. Geodetic infrastructure at the Barcelona harbour for sea level monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Benjamin, Juan Jose; Gili, Josep; Lopez, Rogelio; Tapia, Ana; Pros, Francesc; Palau, Vicenc; Perez, Begona

    2015-04-01

    The presentation is directed to the description of the actual geodetic infrastructure of Barcelona harbour with three tide gauges of different technologies for sea level determination and contribution to regional sea level rise and understanding past and present sea level rise in the Barcelona harbour. It is intended that the overall system will constitute a CGPS Station of the ESEAS (European Sea Level) and TIGA (GPS Tide Gauge Benchmark Monitoring) networks. At Barcelona harbour there is a MIROS radar tide gauge belonging to Puertos del Estado (Spanish Harbours).The radar sensor is over the water surface, on a L-shaped structure which elevates it a few meters above the quay shelf. 1-min data are transmitted to the ENAGAS Control Center by cable and then sent each 1 min to Puertos del Estado by e-mail. The information includes wave forescast (mean period, significant wave height, sea level, etc.This sensor also measures agitation and sends wave parameters each 20 min. There is a GPS station Leica Geosystems GRX1200 GG Pro and antenna AX 1202 GG. The Control Tower of the Port of Barcelona is situated in the North dike of the so-called Energy Pier in the Barcelona harbor (Spain). This tower has different kind of antennas for navigation monitoring and a GNSS permanent station. As the tower is founded in reclaimed land, and because its metallic structure, the 50 m building is subjected to diverse movements, including periodic fluctuations due to temperature changes. In this contribution the 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014 the necessary monitoring campaigns are described. In the framework of a Spanish Space Project, the instrumentation of sea level measurements has been improved by providing the Barcelona site with a radar tide gauge Datamar 2000C from Geonica S.L. in June 2014 near an acoustic tide gauge from the Barcelona Harbour installed in 2013. Precision levelling has been made several times in the last two years because the tower is founded in reclaimed land and

  16. Reconciling projections of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Tamsin; Holden, Philip; Edwards, Neil; Wernecke, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Two recent studies of the Antarctic contribution to sea level rise this century had best estimates that differed by an order of magnitude (around 10 cm and 1 m by 2100). The first, Ritz et al. (2015), used a model calibrated with satellite data, giving a 5% probability of exceeding 30cm by 2100 for sea level rise due to Antarctic instability. The second, DeConto and Pollard (2016), used a model evaluated with reconstructions of palaeo-sea level. They did not estimate probabilities, but using a simple assumption here about the distribution shape gives up to a 5% chance of Antarctic contribution exceeding 2.3 m this century with total sea level rise approaching 3 m. If robust, this would have very substantial implications for global adaptation to climate change. How are we to make sense of this apparent inconsistency? How much is down to the data - does the past tell us we will face widespread and rapid Antarctic ice losses in the future? How much is due to the mechanism of rapid ice loss ('cliff failure') proposed in the latter paper, or other parameterisation choices in these low resolution models (GRISLI and PISM, respectively)? How much is due to choices made in the ensemble design and calibration? How do these projections compare with high resolution, grounding line resolving models such as BISICLES? Could we reduce the huge uncertainties in the palaeo-study? Emulation provides a powerful tool for understanding these questions and reconciling the projections. By describing the three numerical ice sheet models with statistical models, we can re-analyse the ensembles and re-do the calibrations under a common statistical framework. This reduces uncertainty in the PISM study because it allows massive sampling of the parameter space, which reduces the sensitivity to reconstructed palaeo-sea level values and also narrows the probability intervals because the simple assumption about distribution shape above is no longer needed. We present reconciled probabilistic

  17. Holocene Sea-Level Database For The Caribbean Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, N. S.; Horton, B.; Engelhart, S. E.; Peltier, W. R.; Scatena, F. N.; Vane, C. H.; Liu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) records from far-field locations are important for understanding the driving mechanisms controlling the nature and timing of the mid-late Holocene reduction in global meltwaters and providing background rates of late Holocene RSL change with which to compare the magnitude of 20th century RSL rise. The Caribbean region has traditionally been considered far-field (i.e., with negligible glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) influence), although recent investigations indicate otherwise. Here, we consider the spatial variability in glacio-isostatic, tectonic and local contributions on RSL records from the circum-Caribbean region to infer a Holocene eustatic sea-level signal. We have constructed a database of quality-controlled, spatially comprehensive, Holocene RSL observations for the circum-Caribbean region. The database contains over 500 index points, which locate the position of RSL in time and space. The database incorporates sea-level observations from a latitudinal range of 5°N to 25°N and longitudinal range of 55°W to 90°W. We include sea-level observations from 11 ka BP to present, although the majority of the index points in the database are younger than 8 ka BP. The database is sub-divided into 13 regions based on the distance from the former Laurentide Ice Sheet and regional tectonic setting. The index points were primarily derived from mangrove peat deposits, which in the Caribbean form in the upper half of the tidal range, and corals (predominantly Acropora palmata), the growth of which is constrained to the upper 5 m of water depth. The index points are classified on the basis of their susceptibility to compaction (e.g., intercalated, basal). The influence of temporal changes in tidal range on index points is also considered. The sea-level reconstructions demonstrate that RSL did not exceed the present height (0 m) during the Holocene in the majority of locations, except at sites in Suriname/Guayana and possibly Trinidad

  18. Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B.

    2016-08-01

    Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time. In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the 1991 eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred. This masking arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late 1990 s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption. A consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade.

  19. Control of Quaternary sea-level changes on gas seeps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riboulot, Vincent; Thomas, Yannick; Berné, Serge; Jouet, Gwénaël.; Cattaneo, Antonio

    2014-07-01

    Gas seeping to the seafloor through structures such as pockmarks may contribute significantly to the enrichment of atmospheric greenhouse gases and global warming. Gas seeps in the Gulf of Lions, Western Mediterranean, are cyclical, and pockmark "life" is governed both by sediment accumulation on the continental margin and Quaternary climate changes. Three-dimensional seismic data, correlated to multi-proxy analysis of a deep borehole, have shown that these pockmarks are associated with oblique chimneys. The prograding chimney geometry demonstrates the syn-sedimentary and long-lasting functioning of the gas seeps. Gas chimneys have reworked chronologically constrained stratigraphic units and have functioned episodically, with maximum activity around sea level lowstands. Therefore, we argue that one of the main driving mechanisms responsible for their formation is the variation in hydrostatic pressure driven by relative sea level changes.

  20. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    Changes in relative mean sea level affect coastal areas in various ways, such as the risk of flooding, the evolution of barrier island systems, or the development of salt marshes. Long-term trends in these changes are partly masked by variability on shorter time scales. Some of this variability, for instance due to wind waves and tides (with the exception of long-period tides), is easily averaged out. In contrast, inter-annual variability is found to be irregular and large, of the order of several decimeters, as is evident from tide gauge records. This is why the climatic trend, typically of a few millimeters per year, can only be reliably identified by examining a record that is long enough to outweigh the inter-annual and decadal variabilities. In this presentation we examine the relation between the annual wind conditions from meteorological records and annual mean sea level along the Dutch coast. To do this, we need reliable and consistent long-term wind records. Some wind records from weather stations in the Netherlands date back to the 19th century, but they are unsuitable for trend analysis because of changes in location, height, surroundings, instrument type or protocol. For this reason, we will use only more recent, homogeneous wind records, from the past two decades. The question then is whether such a relatively short record is sufficient to find a convincing relation with annual mean sea level. It is the purpose of this work to demonstrate that the answer is positive and to suggest methods to find and exploit such a relation. We find that at the Dutch coast, southwesterly winds are dominant in the wind climate, but the west-east direction stands out as having the highest correlation with annual mean sea level. For different stations in the Dutch Wadden Sea and along the coast, we find a qualitatively similar pattern, although the precise values of the correlations vary. The inter-annual variability of mean sea level can already be largely explained by

  1. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2012-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 co-variations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea level sensitivity to climate change. Pleistocene climate oscillations imply a fast-feedback climate sensitivity 3 {\\pm} 1 {\\deg}C for 4 W/m2 CO2 forcing for the average of climate states between the Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the error estimate being large and partly subjective because of continuing uncertainty about LGM global surface climate. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify total Earth system sensitivity. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we suggest that hysteresis and slow response in current ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state-dependence of climate sensitivity, finding a strong increase in sensitivity when global temperature reaches early Cenozoic and higher levels, as increased water vapor eliminates the tropopause. It follows that...

  2. Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade; however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition (EMD suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the straits exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level (MSL rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC; nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.

  3. Accelerated sea level rise and Florida Current transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Park

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Florida Current is the headwater of the Gulf Stream and is a component of the North Atlantic western boundary current from which a geostrophic balance between sea surface height and mass transport directly influence coastal sea levels along the Florida Straits. A linear regression of daily Florida Current transport estimates does not find a significant change in transport over the last decade, however, a nonlinear trend extracted from empirical mode decomposition suggests a 3 Sv decline in mean transport. This decline is consistent with observed tide gauge records in Florida Bay and the Straits, all exhibiting an acceleration of mean sea level rise over the decade. It is not known whether this recent change represents natural variability or the onset of the anticipated secular decline in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, nonetheless, such changes have direct impacts on the sensitive ecological systems of the Everglades as well as the climate of western Europe and eastern North America.

  4. Milankovitch forcing of the last interglacial sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, T J; Kim, K Y

    1994-09-09

    During the last interglacial, sea level was as high as present, 4000 to 6000 years before peak Northern Hemisphere insolation receipt 126,000 years ago. The sea-level results are shown to be consistent with climate models, which simulate a 3 degrees to 4 degrees C July temperature increase from 140,000 to 130,000 years ago in high latitudes, with all Northern Hemisphere land areas being warmer than present by 130,000 years ago. The early warming occurs because obliquity peaked earlier than precession and because precession values were greater than present before peak precessional forcing occurred. These results indicate that a fuller understanding of the Milankovitch-climate connection requires consideration of fields other than just insolation forcing at 65 degrees N.

  5. Sea level reconstruction from satellite altimetry and tide gauge data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2012-01-01

    transformations such as maximum autocorrelation factors (MAF), which better take into account the spatio-temporal structure of the variation. Rather than trying to maximize the amount of variance explained, the MAF transform considers noise to be uncorrelated with a spatially or temporally shifted version...... of itself, whereas the desired signal will exhibit autocorrelation. This will be applied to a global dataset, necessitating wrap-around consideration of spatial shifts. Our focus is a timescale going back approximately 50 years, allowing reasonable global availability of tide gauge data. This allows......Ocean satellite altimetry has provided global sets of sea level data for the last two decades, allowing determination of spatial patterns in global sea level. For reconstructions going back further than this period, tide gauge data can be used as a proxy. We examine different methods of combining...

  6. The Future of GLOSS Sea Level Data Archaeology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Bradshaw, E.; Tamisiea, M. E.; Aarup, T.

    2014-12-01

    Long term climate records are rare, consisting of unique and unrepeatable measurements. However, data do exist in analogue form in archives, libraries and other repositories around the world. The Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) Group of Experts aims to provide advice on locating hidden tide gauge data, scanning and digitising records and quality controlling the resulting data. Long sea level data time series are used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and climate studies, in oceanography to study changes in ocean currents, tides and storm surges, in geodesy to establish national datum and in geography and geology to monitor coastal land movement. GLOSS has carried out a number of data archaeology activities over the past decade, which have mainly involved sending member organisations questionnaires on their repositories. The Group of Experts is now looking at future developments in sea level data archaeology and how new technologies coming on line could be used by member organisations to make data digitisation and transcription more efficient. Analogue tide data comes in two forms charts, which record the continuous measurements made by an instrument, usually via a pen trace on paper ledgers containing written values of observations The GLOSS data archaeology web pages will provide a list of software that member organisations have reported to be suitable for the automatic digitisation of tide gauge charts. Transcribing of ledgers has so far proved more labour intensive and is usually conducted by people entering numbers by hand. GLOSS is exploring using Citizen Science techniques, such as those employed by the Old Weather project, to improve the efficiency of transcribing ledgers. The Group of Experts is also looking at recent advances in Handwritten Text Recognition (HTR) technology, which mainly relies on patterns in the written word, but could be adapted to work with the patterns inherent in sea level data.

  7. Adaptive Planning for Transportation Corridors Threatened by Sea Level Rise

    OpenAIRE

    Shilling, Fraser M; Vandever, Justin; May, Kris; Gerhard, Ina; Bregoff, Robert

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a generalizable planning and assessment process for transportation planning adaptive to sea level rise (SLR). State Route 37 (SR-37) is the California highway most vulnerable to temporary flooding and permanent inundation as a result of SLR. Like many other coastal highways in the United States, SR-37 is adjacent to protected coastal systems (e.g., beaches, tidal wetlands), meaning that any activity on the highway is s...

  8. Negative transfer of heart rate control following biofeedback training: a partial replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steptoe, A; Macready, D

    1985-09-01

    Ability to raise and lower heart rate (HR) on instruction was tested before and after unidirectional biofeedback training in two groups of 10 male volunteers. Instructional control was assessed in 2-min trials before training, and after 5 and 10 biofeedback trials of increasing (Group I) and decreasing (Group D) HR. The magnitude of HR elevations produced by Group D diminished following training, while modifications in Group I were unchanged. This negative transfer effect is discussed in relation to whether voluntary speeding and slowing HR reflect distinct capacities.

  9. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W.; McKee, Karen L.; Lovelock, Catherine E.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-01-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

  10. Holocene changes in sea level: Evidence in Micronesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepard, F.P.; Curray, Joseph R.; Newman, W.A.; Bloom, A.L.; Newell, N.D.; Tracey, J.I.; Veeh, H.H.

    1967-01-01

    Investigation of 33 islands, scattered widely across the Caroline and Marshall Island groups in the Central Pacific revealed no emerged reefs in which corals had unquestionably formed in situ, or other direct evidence of postglacial high stands of sea level. Low unconsolidated rock terraces and ridges of reef-flat islands, mostly lying between tide levels, were composed of rubble conglomerates; carbon-14 dating of 11 samples from the conglomerates so far may suggest a former slightly higher sea level (nine samples range between 1890 and 3450 and one approaches 4500 years ago). However, recent hurricanes have produced ridges of comparable height and material, and in the same areas relics from World War II have been found cemented in place. Thus these datings do not in themselves necessarily indicate formerly higher sea levels. Rubble tracts are produced by storms under present conditions without any change in datum, and there seems to be no compelling evidence that they were not so developed during various periods in the past.

  11. Hydrothermal iron flux variability following rapid sea level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Jennifer L.; Langmuir, Charles H.; Mukhopadhyay, Sujoy; McManus, Jerry F.; Mitrovica, Jerry X.

    2016-04-01

    Sea level changes associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles have been hypothesized to modulate melt production and hydrothermal activity at ocean ridges, yet little is known about fluctuations in hydrothermal circulation on time scales longer than a few millennia. We present a high-resolution record of hydrothermal activity over the past 50 ka using elemental flux data from a new sediment core from the Mir zone of the TAG hydrothermal field at 26°N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Mir sediments reveal sixfold to eightfold increases in hydrothermal iron and copper deposition during the Last Glacial Maximum, followed by a rapid decline during the sea level rise associated with deglaciation. Our results, along with previous observations from Pacific and Atlantic spreading centers, indicate that rapid sea level changes influence hydrothermal output on mid-ocean ridges. Thus, climate variability may discretize volcanic processing of the solid Earth on millennial time scales and subsequently stimulate variability in biogeochemical interactions with volcanic systems.

  12. How mangrove forests adjust to rising sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krauss, Ken W; McKee, Karen L; Lovelock, Catherine E; Cahoon, Donald R; Saintilan, Neil; Reef, Ruth; Chen, Luzhen

    2014-04-01

    Mangroves are among the most well described and widely studied wetland communities in the world. The greatest threats to mangrove persistence are deforestation and other anthropogenic disturbances that can compromise habitat stability and resilience to sea-level rise. To persist, mangrove ecosystems must adjust to rising sea level by building vertically or become submerged. Mangroves may directly or indirectly influence soil accretion processes through the production and accumulation of organic matter, as well as the trapping and retention of mineral sediment. In this review, we provide a general overview of research on mangrove elevation dynamics, emphasizing the role of the vegetation in maintaining soil surface elevations (i.e. position of the soil surface in the vertical plane). We summarize the primary ways in which mangroves may influence sediment accretion and vertical land development, for example, through root contributions to soil volume and upward expansion of the soil surface. We also examine how hydrological, geomorphological and climatic processes may interact with plant processes to influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with rising sea level. We draw on a variety of studies to describe the important, and often under-appreciated, role that plants play in shaping the trajectory of an ecosystem undergoing change.

  13. Mangrove Sedimentation and Response to Relative Sea-Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, C. D.; Rogers, K.; McKee, K. L.; Lovelock, C. E.; Mendelssohn, I. A.; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions, related primarily to elevation and hydroperiod, influence mangrove distributions; this review considers how these distributions change over time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks, and tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas measurements made using surface elevation tables and marker horizons provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in a continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics. *

  14. Mangrove sedimentation and response to relative sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodroffe, CD; Rogers, K.; Mckee, Karen L.; Lovelock, CE; Mendelssohn, IA; Saintilan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Mangroves occur on upper intertidal shorelines in the tropics and subtropics. Complex hydrodynamic and salinity conditions influence mangrove distributions, primarily related to elevation and hydroperiod; this review considers how these adjust through time. Accumulation rates of allochthonous and autochthonous sediment, both inorganic and organic, vary between and within different settings. Abundant terrigenous sediment can form dynamic mudbanks; tides redistribute sediment, contrasting with mangrove peat in sediment-starved carbonate settings. Sediments underlying mangroves sequester carbon, but also contain paleoenvironmental records of adjustments to past sea-level changes. Radiometric dating indicates long-term sedimentation, whereas Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon measurements (SET-MH) provide shorter perspectives, indicating shallow subsurface processes of root growth and substrate autocompaction. Many tropical deltas also experience deep subsidence, which augments relative sea-level rise. The persistence of mangroves implies an ability to cope with moderately high rates of relative sea-level rise. However, many human pressures threaten mangroves, resulting in continuing decline in their extent throughout the tropics.

  15. Sea level, paleogeography, and archeology on California's Northern Channel Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeder-Myers, Leslie; Erlandson, Jon M.; Muhs, Daniel R.; Rick, Torben C.

    2015-01-01

    Sea-level rise during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene inundated nearshore areas in many parts of the world, producing drastic changes in local ecosystems and obscuring significant portions of the archeological record. Although global forces are at play, the effects of sea-level rise are highly localized due to variability in glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effects. Interpretations of coastal paleoecology and archeology require reliable estimates of ancient shorelines that account for GIA effects. Here we build on previous models for California's Northern Channel Islands, producing more accurate late Pleistocene and Holocene paleogeographic reconstructions adjusted for regional GIA variability. This region has contributed significantly to our understanding of early New World coastal foragers. Sea level that was about 80–85 m lower than present at the time of the first known human occupation brought about a landscape and ecology substantially different than today. During the late Pleistocene, large tracts of coastal lowlands were exposed, while a colder, wetter climate and fluctuating marine conditions interacted with rapidly evolving littoral environments. At the close of the Pleistocene and start of the Holocene, people in coastal California faced shrinking land, intertidal, and subtidal zones, with important implications for resource availability and distribution.

  16. PERSPECTIVE: The tripping points of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hecht, Alan D.

    2009-12-01

    When President Nixon created the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in 1970 he said the environment must be perceived as a single, interrelated system. We are nowhere close to achieving this vision. Jim Titus and his colleagues [1] highlight one example of where one set of regulations or permits may be in conflict with another and where regulations were crafted in the absence of understanding the cumulative impact of global warming. The issue here is how to deal with the impacts of climate change on sea level and the latter's impact on wetland polices, clean water regulations, and ecosystem services. The Titus paper could also be called `The tripping points of sea level rise'. Titus and his colleagues have looked at the impact of such sea level rise on the east coast of the United States. Adaptive responses include costly large- scale investment in shore protection (e.g. dikes, sand replenishment) and/or ecosystem migration (retreat), where coastal ecosystems move inland. Shore protection is limited by available funds, while ecosystem migrations are limited by available land use. The driving factor is the high probability of sea level rise due to climate change. Estimating sea level rise is difficult because of local land and coastal dynamics including rising or falling land areas. It is estimated that sea level could rise between 8 inches and 2 feet by the end of this century [2]. The extensive data analysis done by Titus et al of current land use is important because, as they observe, `property owners and land use agencies have generally not decided how they will respond to sea level rise, nor have they prepared maps delineating where shore protection and retreat are likely'. This is the first of two `tripping points', namely the need for adaptive planning for a pending environmental challenge that will create economic and environment conflict among land owners, federal and state agencies, and businesses. One way to address this gap in adaptive management

  17. Glacier calving, dynamics, and sea-level rise. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, M.F.; Pfeffer, W.T.; Amadei, B.

    1998-08-01

    The present-day calving flux from Greenland and Antarctica is poorly known, and this accounts for a significant portion of the uncertainty in the current mass balance of these ice sheets. Similarly, the lack of knowledge about the role of calving in glacier dynamics constitutes a major uncertainty in predicting the response of glaciers and ice sheets to changes in climate and thus sea level. Another fundamental problem has to do with incomplete knowledge of glacier areas and volumes, needed for analyses of sea-level change due to changing climate. The authors proposed to develop an improved ability to predict the future contributions of glaciers to sea level by combining work from four research areas: remote sensing observations of calving activity and iceberg flux, numerical modeling of glacier dynamics, theoretical analysis of the calving process, and numerical techniques for modeling flow with large deformations and fracture. These four areas have never been combined into a single research effort on this subject; in particular, calving dynamics have never before been included explicitly in a model of glacier dynamics. A crucial issue that they proposed to address was the general question of how calving dynamics and glacier flow dynamics interact.

  18. Training Cognitive Functioning in the Elderly--Inability to Replicate Previous Findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papalia-Finlay, Diane; And Others

    1980-01-01

    Elderly women volunteers were given a pretest battery of conservation tasks. Conservation scores were the highest yet recorded by elderly participants; consequently, training was not implemented. Results suggest that advanced chronological age does not guarantee poor conservation performance. (Author)

  19. Controls on Precambrian sea level change and sedimentary cyclicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eriksson, P. G.; Catuneanu, O.; Nelson, D. R.; Popa, M.

    2005-04-01

    Although uniformitarianism applies in a general sense to the controls on relative and global sea level change, some influences thereon were more prominent in the Precambrian. Short-term base level change due to waves and tides may have been enhanced due to possibly more uniform circulation systems on wide, low gradient Precambrian shelves. The lack of evidence for global glacial events in the Precambrian record implies that intraplate stresses and cyclic changes to Earth's geoid were more likely explanations for third-order sea level change than glacio-eustasy. Higher heat flow in the earlier Precambrian may have led to more rapid tectonic plate formation, transport and destruction, along with an increased role for hot spots, aseismic ridges and mantle plumes (superplumes), all of which may have influenced cyclic sedimentation within the ocean basins. A weak cyclicity in the occurrence of plume events has an approximate duration comparable to that of first-order (supercontinental cycle) sea level change. Second-order cyclicity in the Precambrian largely reflects the influences of thermal epeirogeny, changes to mid-ocean ridge volume as well as to ridge growth and decay rates, and cratonic marginal downwarping concomitant with either sediment loading or extensional tectonism. Third-order cycles of sea level change in the Precambrian also reflected cyclic loading/unloading within flexural foreland basin settings, and filling/deflation of magma chambers associated with island arc evolution. The relatively limited number of studies of Precambrian sequence stratigraphy allows some preliminary conclusions to be drawn on duration of the first three orders of cyclicity. Archaean greenstone basins appear to have had first- and second-order cycle durations analogous to Phanerozoic equivalents, supporting steady state tectonics throughout Earth history. In direct contrast, however, preserved basin-fills from Neoarchaean-Palaeoproterozoic cratonic terranes have first- and

  20. Impact of Altimeter Data Processing on Sea Level Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Lázaro

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the impact of satellite altimetry data processing on sea levelstudies at regional scale, with emphasis on the influence of various geophysical correctionsand satellite orbit on the structure of the derived interannual signal and sea level trend. Thework focuses on the analysis of TOPEX data for a period of over twelve years, for threeregions in the North Atlantic: Tropical (0o≤φ≤25o, Sub-Tropical (25o≤φ≤50o and Sub-Arctic (50o≤φ≤65o. For this analysis corrected sea level anomalies with respect to a meansea surface model have been derived from the GDR-Ms provided by AVISO by applyingvarious state-of-the-art models for the geophysical corrections. Results show that sea leveltrend determined from TOPEX altimetry is dependent on the adopted models for the majorgeophysical corrections. The main effects come from the sea state bias (SSB, and from theapplication or not of the inverse barometer (IB correction. After an appropriate modellingof the TOPEX A/B bias, the two analysed SSB models induce small variations in sea leveltrend, from 0.0 to 0.2 mm/yr, with a small latitude dependence. The difference in sea leveltrend determined by a non IB-corrected series and an IB-corrected one has a strong regionaldependence with large differences in the shape of the interannual signals and in the derivedlinear trends. The use of two different drift models for the TOPEX Microwave Radiometer(TMR has a small but non negligible effect on the North Atlantic sea level trend of about0.1 mm/yr. The interannual signals of sea level time series derived with the NASA and theCNES orbits respectively, show a small departure in the middle of the series, which has noimpact on the derived sea level trend. These results strike the need for a continuousimprovement in the modelling of the various effects that influence the altimetermeasurement.

  1. Observed Sea-Level Changes along the Norwegian Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Breili

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Norway’s national sea level observing system consists of an extensive array of tide gauges, permanent GNSS stations, and lines of repeated levelling. Here, we make use of this observation system to calculate relative sea-level rates and rates corrected for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA along the Norwegian coast for three different periods, i.e., 1960 to 2010, 1984 to 2014, and 1993 to 2016. For all periods, the relative sea-level rates show considerable spatial variations that are largely due to differences in vertical land motion due to GIA. The variation is reduced by applying corrections for vertical land motion and associated gravitational effects on sea level. For 1960 to 2010 and 1984 to 2014, the coastal average GIA-corrected rates for Norway are 2.0 ± 0.6 mm/year and 2.2 ± 0.6 mm/year, respectively. This is close to the rate of global sea-level rise for the same periods. For the most recent period, 1993 to 2016, the GIA-corrected coastal average is 3.5 ± 0.6 mm/year and 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/year with and without inverse barometer (IB corrections, respectively, which is significantly higher than for the two earlier periods. For 1993 to 2016, the coastal average IB-corrected rates show broad agreement with two independent sets of altimetry. This suggests that there is no systematic error in the vertical land motion corrections applied to the tide-gauge data. At the same time, altimetry does not capture the spatial variation identified in the tide-gauge records. This could be an effect of using altimetry observations off the coast instead of directly at each tide gauge. Finally, we note that, owing to natural variability in the climate system, our estimates are highly sensitive to the selected study period. For example, using a 30-year moving window, we find that the estimated rates may change by up to 1 mm/year when shifting the start epoch by only one year.

  2. Tagus estuary and Ria de Aveiro salt marsh dynamics and the impact of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentim, J. M.; Vaz, N.; Silva, H.; Duarte, B.; Caçador, I.; Dias, J. M.

    2013-09-01

    Different characteristics of Spartina maritima found in two distinct salt marshes located in different estuaries were analysed through interpretation of their local hydrodynamic patterns, as well as the impact of sea level rise on physical processes and consequently on plant dynamics and salt marshes stability. These salt marshes are situated in two of the most important Portuguese coastal systems, Tagus estuary (Rosário salt marsh) and Ria de Aveiro lagoon (Barra salt marsh), which are dominated by physical processes that induce strong tidal currents. They were monitored during one year and plant and sediment samples of S. maritima were collected quarterly in order to determine the vegetation coverage, above and belowground biomass, organic matter and sediment moisture. Residual circulation, tidal asymmetry and tidal dissipation were determined from numerical modelling results of the MOHID 2D model that was applied to each coastal system, considering the actual sea level and a sea level rise (SLR) scenario. Results suggest that the different characteristics found for Spartina maritima in the Rosário and the Barra salt marshes may be related with the diverse hydrodynamic conditions identified for each salt marsh. Consequently, the exploration of SLR scenario predictions indicates how these salt marshes could evolve in the future, showing that the important changes in these hydrodynamic parameters under climate change context might induce significant modifications in the salt marshes dynamics and stability. SLR scenario could lead to changes in nutrients and sediments patterns around the salt marshes and thus vegetation coverage percentage would be affected. Additionally, as a consequence of flood duration increase, sediment moisture will increase causing a stress condition to plants. Hence, the ratio below/aboveground biomass might increase, becoming critical to plants survival under conditions of accelerated sea level rise. Accordingly, both SLR and expected

  3. Vulnerability of marginal seas to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomis, Damia; Jordà, Gabriel

    2017-04-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) is a serious thread for coastal areas and has a potential negative impact on society and economy. SLR can lead for instance to land loss, beach reduction, increase of the damage of marine storms on coastal infrastructures and to the salinization of underground water streams. It is well acknowledged that future SLR will be inhomogeneous across the globe, with regional differences of up to 100% with respect to global mean sea level (GMSL). Several studies have addressed the projections of SLR at regional scale, but most of them are based on global climate models (GCMs) that have a relatively coarse spatial resolution (>1°). In marginal seas this has proven to be a strong limitation, as their particular configurations require spatial resolutions that are not reachable by present GCMs. A paradigmatic case is the Mediterranean Sea, connected to the global ocean through the Strait of Gibraltar, a narrow passage of 14 km width. The functioning of the Mediterranean Sea involves a variety of processes including an overturning circulation, small-scale convection and a rich mesoscale field. Moreover, the long-term evolution of Mediterranean sea level has been significantly different from the global mean during the last decades. The observations of present climate and the projections for the next decades have lead some authors to hypothesize that the particular characteristics of the basin could allow Mediterranean mean sea level to evolve differently from the global mean. Assessing this point is essential to undertake proper adaptation strategies for the largely populated Mediterranean coastal areas. In this work we apply a new approach that combines regional and global projections to analyse future SLR. In a first step we focus on the quantification of the expected departures of future Mediterranean sea level from GMSL evolution and on the contribution of different processes to these departures. As a result we find that, in spite of its particularities

  4. The record of Pliocene sea-level change at Enewetak Atoll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardlaw, Bruce R.; Quinn, Terrence M.

    Detailed seismic stratigraphy, lithostratigraphy, and chemostratigraphy indicate that atoll-wide subaerial exposure surfaces (major disconformities) developed during major sea-level lowstands form prominent seismic reflectors and are coincident with biostratigraphic breaks in the Plio-Pleistocene on Enewetak Atoll. Sea-level models based on the stratigraphic position and age of major disconformities suggest a maximum sea-level highstand elevation of 36 m above present sea level and a maximum sea-level lowstand elevation of 63 m below present sea level for the Pliocene.

  5. Investigation of the LIG sea-level highstand with massive ensembles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Düsterhus, André; Tamisiea, Mark E.; Hibbert, Fiona D.; Rohling, Eelco J.

    2017-04-01

    Paleoclimatic sea-level analysis is based upon the evaluation of sparse indirect observational data, the sea-level indicators, and models for sea-level fluctuations, with a wide range of complexity. Individual records of paleo sea level depend not only upon the change in global ice volume, but also on the crustal deformation and gravity changes that are significant both near the glaciers and around the world. Understanding of these processes for the past is essential for interpreting the observations and generating better estimates of future changes. We use massive ensemble approaches to analyse sea-level changes during the last interglacial (LIG). Employing a Bayesian statistical analysis, we compare the sea-level indicators to model-generated sea-level estimates. As a result we gain insight into the development of the ice sheets, the influence of the Earth deformation and the evolution of higher-than-present-day sea level during that period. This contribution gives an overview of our sea-level analysis during the LIG. We focus on the highstand of sea level during the LIG and the duration of higher than modern sea level. The analysis helps to answer questions of the effect of the uncertainties in the indicators, both in height as well as in time, on features of the estimated global-average sea level. In particular, we address how well the data resolve sea-level oscillations during the LIG.

  6. Final project memorandum: sea-level rise modeling handbook: resource guide for resource managers, engineers, and scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    2015-01-01

    Coastal wetlands of the Southeastern United States are undergoing retreat and migration from increasing tidal inundation and saltwater intrusion attributed to climate variability and sea-level rise. Much of the literature describing potential sea-level rise projections and modeling predictions are found in peer-reviewed academic journals or government technical reports largely suited to reading by other Ph.D. scientists who are more familiar or engaged in the climate change debate. Various sea-level rise and coastal wetland models have been developed and applied of different designs and scales of spatial and temporal complexity for predicting habitat and environmental change that have not heretofore been synthesized to aid natural resource managers of their utility and limitations. Training sessions were conducted with Federal land managers with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service, and NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserves as well as state partners and nongovernmental organizations across the northern Gulf Coast from Florida to Texas to educate and to evaluate user needs and understanding of concepts, data, and modeling tools for projecting sea-level rise and its impact on coastal habitats and wildlife. As a result, this handbook was constructed from these training and feedback sessions with coastal managers and biologists of published decision-support tools and simulation models for sea-level rise and climate change assessments. A simplified tabular context was developed listing the various kinds of decision-support tools and ecological models along with criteria to distinguish the source, scale, and quality of information input and geographic data sets, physical and biological constraints and relationships, datum characteristics of water and land elevation components, utility options for setting sea-level rise and climate change scenarios, and ease or difficulty of storing, displaying, or interpreting model output. The handbook is designed

  7. Drivers of Holocene sea-level change in the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Nicole S.; Ashe, Erica; Horton, Benjamin P.; Dutton, Andrea; Kopp, Robert E.; Brocard, Gilles; Engelhart, Simon E.; Hill, David F.; Peltier, W. R.; Vane, Christopher H.; Scatena, Fred N.

    2017-01-01

    We present a Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) database for the Caribbean region (5°N to 25°N and 55°W to 90°W) that consists of 499 sea-level index points and 238 limiting dates. The database was compiled from multiple sea-level indicators (mangrove peat, microbial mats, beach rock and acroporid and massive corals). We subdivided the database into 20 regions to investigate the influence of tectonics and glacial isostatic adjustment on RSL. We account for the local-scale processes of sediment compaction and tidal range change using the stratigraphic position (overburden thickness) of index points and paleotidal modeling, respectively. We use a spatio-temporal empirical hierarchical model to estimate RSL position and its rates of change in the Caribbean over 1-ka time slices. Because of meltwater input, the rates of RSL change were highest during the early Holocene, with a maximum of 10.9 ± 0.6 m/ka in Suriname and Guyana and minimum of 7.4 ± 0.7 m/ka in south Florida from 12 to 8 ka. Following complete deglaciation of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) by ∼7 ka, mid-to late-Holocene rates slowed to model constrains the spatial extent of the mid-Holocene highstand. RSL did not exceed the present height during the Holocene, except on the northern coast of South America, where in Suriname and Guyana, RSL attained a height higher than present by 6.6 ka (82% probability). The highstand reached a maximum elevation of +1.0 ± 1.1 m between 5.3 and 5.2 ka. Regions with a highstand were located furthest away from the former LIS, where the effects from ocean syphoning and hydro-isostasy outweigh the influence of subsidence from forebulge collapse.

  8. Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    Simulation, Belur Campus, Bangalore 560 037, India e-mail: uns@cmmacs.ernet.in Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions A recently published report1 by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made an assessment... of the extreme climate events. Their past trends, future projections and vulnerabi- lity and adaptation to such events are discussed in the report. The report was based on the efforts of both the working groups of the IPCC, WG I, which deals with the science...

  9. Salt marsh stability modelled in relation to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholdy, Jesper; Bartholdy, Anders T.; Kroon, Aart

    2010-05-01

    Accretion on a natural backbarrier salt marsh was modeled as a function of high tide level, initial salt marsh level and distance to the source. Calibration of the model was based on up to ca 80 year old marker horizons, supplemented by 210Pb/137Cs datings and subsequent measurements of clay thickness. Autocompaction was incorporated in the model, and shown to play a major role for the translation of accretion rates measured as length per unit time to accumulation rates measured as mass per area per unit time. This is important, even for shallow salt marsh deposits for which it is demonstrated that mass depth down core can be directly related to the bulk dry density of the surface layer by means of a logarithmic function. The results allow for an evaluation of the use of marker horizons in the topmost layers and show that it is important to know the level of the marker in relation to the salt marsh base. In general, deeper located markers will indicate successively smaller accretion rates with the same sediment input. Thus, stability analysis made on the basis of newly established marker horizons will be biased and indicate salt marsh stabilities far above the correct level. Running the model with a constant sea level revealed that balance between the inner and the outer salt marsh deposition can not be achieved within a reasonable time scale. Likewise it is shown that only one specific sea level rise provides equilibrium for a given location on the salt marsh. With a higher sea level rise, the marsh at the specific location will eventually drown, whereas - with a sea level rise below this level - it will grow towards the top of the rising tidal frame. The short term variation of salt marsh accretion was found to correlate well with variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation - the NAO winter index. Comparisons between the geomorphological development of wind tide affected salt marshes, like those present on the Danish North Sea coasts, and primary astronomically

  10. Sea level changes along the Indian coast: Observations and projections

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Kumar, K.R.; Fernandes, S.E.; Michael, G.S.; Patwardhan, S.K.

    analysi s. The model p a- rameters such as atmospheric pressure field at the surface and near surface wind field during a future climate sc e- nario (2041 ? 2060) were used to identify the occurrence of lows, depressions and cyclones to determine... lows, depress ions to c y- clones. Thus, sea level pre s sure fields, at least, on a daily time scale are needed to identify the evolution of atmo s- pheric disturbances. A given disturbance is chara c terized by two parameters, namely, the maximum...

  11. Long-range dependence and sea level forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Ercan, Ali; Abbasov, Rovshan K

    2013-01-01

    This study shows that the Caspian Sea level time series possess long range dependence even after removing linear trends, based on analyses of the Hurst statistic, the sample autocorrelation functions, and the periodogram of the series. Forecasting performance of ARMA, ARIMA, ARFIMA and Trend Line-ARFIMA (TL-ARFIMA) combination models are investigated. The forecast confidence bands and the forecast updating methodology, provided for ARIMA models in the literature, are modified for the ARFIMA models. Sample autocorrelation functions are utilized to estimate the differencing lengths of the ARFIMA

  12. Accelerated sea-level rise from West Antarctica.

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, R; Rignot, E.; Casassa, G; Kanagaratnam, P; Acuña, C; Akins, T; Brecher, H; E Frederick; Gogineni, P.; Krabill, W.; Manizade, S.; Ramamoorthy, H; Rivera, A.; Russell, R.; Sonntag, J

    2004-01-01

    Recent aircraft and satellite laser altimeter surveys of the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica show that local glaciers are discharging about 250 cubic kilometers of ice per year to the ocean, almost 60% more than is accumulated within their catchment basins. This discharge is sufficient to raise sea level by more than 0.2 millimeters per year. Glacier thinning rates near the coast during 2002-2003 are much larger than those observed during the 1990s. Most of these glaciers flow into flo...

  13. Sea level characterization of a 1100 g sapphire bolometer

    CERN Document Server

    Pécourt, S; Bobin, C; Coron, N; Jesus, M D; Hadjout, J P; Leblanc, J W; Marcillac, P D

    1999-01-01

    A first characterization of a 1100 g sapphire bolometer, performed at sea level and at a working temperature of 40 mK, is presented. Despite perturbations coming from the high-radioactive background and cosmic rays, calibration spectra could be achieved with an internal alpha source and a sup 5 sup 7 Co gamma-ray source: the experimental threshold is 25 keV, while the FWHM resolution is 17.4 keV for the 122 keV peak. Possible heat release effects are discussed, and a new limit of 9x10 sup - sup 1 sup 4 W/g is obtained for sapphire.

  14. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Marin Islands NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Marin...

  15. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Rappahannock NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  16. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Bayou Sauvage NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Bayou...

  17. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Mashpee NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  18. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Back Bay NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Back...

  19. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Cedar Keys NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Cedar...

  20. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Breton NWR [Draft

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  1. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Archie Carr NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  2. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Chassahowitzka NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  3. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Grand Bay NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Grand...

  4. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Blackwater NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  5. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Cedar Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Cedar...

  6. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Harris Neck NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  7. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Pine Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Pine...

  8. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Delta NWR : Revised [Draft

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Delta...

  9. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Currituck NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  10. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Nansemond NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  11. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Blackbeard Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  12. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Guam NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Guam...

  13. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Bombay Hook NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  14. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Amagansett NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  15. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Wolf Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Wolf...

  16. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Monomoy NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  17. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Potomac River NWR Complex

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  18. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Hobe Sound NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Hobe...

  19. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to St. Marks NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on St....

  20. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to John Heinz NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on John...

  1. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Edwin B. Forsythe NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Edwin...

  2. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Swanquarter NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  3. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Pinckney Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  4. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Big Branch Marsh NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Model SummaryChanges in tidal marsh area and habitat type in response to sea-level rise were modeled using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) that...

  5. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Pelican Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  6. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Moosehorn NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  7. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Crocodile Lake NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  8. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Merritt Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  9. NOAA Digital Coast Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer depicts potential sea level rise and its associated impacts on the nation's coastal areas. These coastal areas...

  10. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Cape May NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Cape...

  11. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-04-01

    WORLDWIDE APRIL 2016 REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: COVER PHOTOS, FROM LEFT TO RIGHT: - Overwash of the island of Roi-Namur on...J.A., S. Gill, J. Obeysekera, W. Sweet, K. Knuuti, and J. Marburger. 2016. Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the...DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE COASTAL SITES WORLDWIDE REGIONAL SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: 4800 Mark Center Drive, Suite 17D08 Alexandria, VA

  12. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    OpenAIRE

    Sean Vitousek; Patrick L. Barnard; Fletcher, Charles H.; Neil Frazer; Li Erikson; Curt D. Storlazzi

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated...

  13. Drivers of Holocene sea-level change - using a global database of relative sea-level records from the Northern and Southern Hemisphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Benjamin; Khan, Nicole; Ashe, Erica; Kopp, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Many factors give rise to relative sea-level (RSL) changes that are far from globally uniform. For example, spatially variable sea-level responses arise because of the exchange of mass between ice sheets and oceans. Gravitational, flexural, and rotational processes generate a distinct spatial pattern - or "fingerprint" - of sea-level change associated with each shrinking land ice mass. As a land ice mass shrinks, sea-level rise is greater in areas geographically distal to the ice mass than in areas proximal to it, in large part because the gravitational attraction between the ice mass and the ocean is reduced. Thus, the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline experiences about 50% of the global average sea-level-rise due to Greenland Ice Sheet melt, but about 120% of the global average due to West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt. Separating the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet contributions during the past 7,000 years requires analysis of sea-level changes from sites in the northern and southern hemisphere. Accordingly we present a global sea-level database for the Holocene to which we apply a hierarchical statistical model to: (1) estimate the Global Mean Sea Level Signal; (2) quantify rates of change; (3) compare rates of change among sites, including full quantification of the uncertainty in their differences; and (4) test hypotheses about the sources of meltwater through their sea-level fingerprints.

  14. Sea level rise projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grinsted, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Riva, R.E.M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.

    2015-01-01

    Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the

  15. Sea level rise projections for Northern Europe under RCP8.5

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grinsted, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Riva, R.E.M.; Dahl-Jensen, D.

    2015-01-01

    Sea level rise poses a significant threat to coastal communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Sea level rise is not uniform globally but is affected by a range of regional factors. In this study, we calculate regional projections of 21st century sea level rise in northern Europe, focusing on the

  16. ENSO-induced inter-annual sea level variability in the Singapore strait

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Soumya, M.; Vethamony, P.; Tkalich, P.

    Sea level data from four tide gauge stations in the SS (Tanjong Pagar, Sultan Shoal, Sembawang and Raffles Lighthouse) for the period 1970-2012 were extracted to study the ENSO-induced interannual sea level variability Sea level during this period...

  17. Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961–2003)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.; Wada, Y.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of

  18. Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961-2003)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A. B. A.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Wada, Y.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the global mean sea-level budget for the 20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sea-level change on a regional scale is still limited. In this study we compare observations from tide gauges to regional patterns from various contributions to sea-level change to see how much of

  19. Decadal and long-term sea level variability in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Nidheesh, A.G.; Lengaigne, M.; Vialard, J.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Dayan, H.

    Decadal and long-term steric sea level variations over 1966-2007 period in the Indo-Pacific sector were analysed using an ocean general circulation model forced by reanalysis winds. The simulated steric sea level compares favourably with sea level...

  20. Changes in extreme regional sea level under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunnabend, S.-E.; Dijkstra, H. A.; Kliphuis, M. A.; Bal, H. E.; Seinstra, F.; van Werkhoven, B.; Maassen, J.; van Meersbergen, M.

    2017-01-01

    An important contribution to future changes in regional sea level extremes is due to the changes in intrinsic ocean variability, in particular ocean eddies. Here, we study a scenario of future dynamic sea level (DSL) extremes using a high-resolution version of the Parallel Ocean Program and generalized extreme value theory. This model is forced with atmospheric fluxes from a coupled climate model which has been integrated under the IPCC-SRES-A1B scenario over the period 2000-2100. Changes in 10-year return time DSL extremes are very inhomogeneous over the globe and are related to changes in ocean currents and corresponding regional shifts in ocean eddy pathways. In this scenario, several regions in the North Atlantic experience an increase in mean DSL of up to 0.4 m over the period 2000-2100. DSL extremes with a 10-year return time increase up to 0.2 m with largest values in the northern and eastern Atlantic.

  1. Eco-technological management of Tuvalu against sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayanne, H.

    2012-12-01

    Atoll island is formed and maintained by sand production, transportation and sedimentation process. Major component of sand in the Pacific atolls is foraminifera, which is produced on the ocean-side reef flat, and then transported from the ocean-side to the lagoon-side coast through channels between the islands. Sand is then transported along the lagoon-side coast by longshore current, and finally deposited to nourish sandy beach. At present, however, this natural process has been deteriorated by local human stresses. High production of foraminifera and corals are degraded by human waste. Transportation of sand from the ocean to the lagoon is blocked by a causeway, and longshore transportation and sedimentation along the lagoon coast is prevented by jetties, dredges and upright seawalls. All these local factors severely reduce natural resilience and increase vulnerability against the projected future sea level rise and the global changes. Countermeasure plans must be based on and must not conflict with the natural island formation process. We launched "Eco-technological management of Tuvalu against sea level rise" under Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development funded by JICA and JST. The goal of this project is to regenerate sandy beach along Fongafale Island, Funrafuti Atoll Tuvalu by rehabilitation of production, transportation and sedimentation process including establishing foraminifera culture system.; Fig. 1 Aerial view of Fongafale Is., Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu.

  2. Gap Filling of Daily Sea Levels by Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyubka Pashova

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the recent years, intelligent methods as artificial neural networks are successfully applied for data analysis from different fields of the geosciences. One of the encountered practical problems is the availability of gaps in the time series that prevent their comprehensive usage for the scientific and practical purposes. The article briefly describes two types of the artificial neural network (ANN architectures - Feed-Forward Backpropagation (FFBP and recurrent Echo state network (ESN. In some cases, the ANN can be used as an alternative on the traditional methods, to fill in missing values in the time series. We have been conducted several experiments to fill the missing values of daily sea levels spanning a 5-years period using both ANN architectures. A multiple linear regression for the same purpose has been also applied. The sea level data are derived from the records of the tide gauge Burgas, which is located on the western Black Sea coast. The achieved results have shown that the performance of ANN models is better than that of the classical one and they are very promising for the real-time interpolation of missing data in the time series.

  3. Differences between mean tide level and mean sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, P. L.

    2016-07-01

    This paper discusses the differences between mean tide level (MTL) and mean sea level (MSL) as demonstrated using information from a global tide gauge data set. The roles of the two main contributors to differences between MTL and MSL (the M4 harmonic of the M2 semidiurnal tide, and the combination of the diurnal tides K1 and O1) are described, with a particular focus on the spatial scales of variation in MTL-MSL due to each contributor. Findings from the tide gauge data set are contrasted with those from a state-of-the-art global tide model. The study is of interest within tidal science, but also has practical importance regarding the type of mean level used to define land survey datums. In addition, an appreciation of MTL-MSL difference is important in the use of the historical sea level data used in climate change research, with implications for some of the data stored in international databanks. Particular studies are made of how MTL and MSL might differ through the year, and if MTL is measured in daylight hours only, as has been the practice of some national geodetic agencies on occasions in the past.

  4. Responding to rising sea levels in the Mekong Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smajgl, A.; Toan, T. Q.; Nhan, D. K.; Ward, J.; Trung, N. H.; Tri, L. Q.; Tri, V. P. D.; Vu, P. T.

    2015-02-01

    Vietnamese communities in the Mekong Delta are faced with the substantial impacts of rising sea levels and salinity intrusion. The construction of embankments and dykes has historically been the principal strategy of the Vietnamese government to mitigate the effects of salinity intrusion on agricultural production. A predicted sea-level rise of 30 cm by the year 2050 is expected to accelerate salinity intrusion. This study combines hydrologic, agronomic and behavioural assessments to identify effective adaptation strategies reliant on land-use change (soft options) and investments in water infrastructure (hard options). As these strategies are managed within different policy portfolios, the political discussion has polarized between choices of either soft or hard options. This paper argues that an ensemble of hard and soft policies is likely to provide the most effective results for people's livelihoods in the Mekong Delta. The consequences of policy deliberations are likely to be felt beyond the Mekong Delta as levels of rice cultivation there also affect national and global food security.

  5. Migraine in the Andes and headache at sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appenzeller, O; Minko, T; Qualls, C; Pozharov, V; Gamboa, J; Gamboa, A; Wang, Y

    2005-12-01

    In Cerro de Pasco (CP), Peru (altitude 4338 m) 24% of men have migraine with aura. We studied 30 men. Twenty CP natives, examined in CP, were rated using a chronic mountain sickness (CMS) score to separate controls (10) from those with CMS (10), a maladaptation syndrome in natives to altitude which includes severe, recurring headache. We collected white cells in CP and, from the same men, within 1 h of arrival in Lima (150 m above sea level). Ten normal US men volunteered white cells for comparison. After RNA extraction we assessed gene expression by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. Low ATP1A1 subunit of the ATPase gene mRNA expression in CP was correlated with headache (P=0.002), acral paraesthesias (P=0.004) and CMS score (P<0.001). ATP1A1 subunit expression was increased in all Andeans in Lima (P<0.001). There were no differences between Andean controls in Lima and US controls. Manipulation of Na+/K+ATPase could offer relief for migraineurs at sea level.

  6. Differences between mean tide level and mean sea level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, P. L.

    2017-01-01

    This paper discusses the differences between mean tide level (MTL) and mean sea level (MSL) as demonstrated using information from a global tide gauge data set. The roles of the two main contributors to differences between MTL and MSL (the M4 harmonic of the M2 semidiurnal tide, and the combination of the diurnal tides K1 and O1) are described, with a particular focus on the spatial scales of variation in MTL-MSL due to each contributor. Findings from the tide gauge data set are contrasted with those from a state-of-the-art global tide model. The study is of interest within tidal science, but also has practical importance regarding the type of mean level used to define land survey datums. In addition, an appreciation of MTL-MSL difference is important in the use of the historical sea level data used in climate change research, with implications for some of the data stored in international databanks. Particular studies are made of how MTL and MSL might differ through the year, and if MTL is measured in daylight hours only, as has been the practice of some national geodetic agencies on occasions in the past.

  7. Diurnal variations of serum erythropoietin at sea level and altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klausen, T; Poulsen, T D; Fogh-Andersen, N;

    1996-01-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that the diurnal variations of serum-erythropoietin concentration (serum-EPO) observed in normoxia also exist in hypoxia. The study also attempted to investigate the regulation of EPO production during sustained hypoxia. Nine subjects were investigated at sea level...... and during 4 days at an altitude of 4350 m. Median sea level serum-EPO concentration was 6 (range 6-13) U.l-1. Serum-EPO concentration increased after 18 and 42 h at altitude, [58 (range 39-240) and 54 (range 36-340) U.l-1, respectively], and then decreased after 64 and 88 h at altitude [34 (range 18......-290) and 31 (range 17-104) U.l-1, respectively]. These changes of serum-EPO concentration were correlated to the changes in arterial blood oxygen saturation (r = -0.60, P = 0.0009), pH (r = 0.67, P = 0.003), and in-vivo venous blood oxygen half saturation tension (r = -0.68, P = 0.004) but not to the changes...

  8. Uprated OMS Engine Status-Sea Level Testing Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertolino, J. D.; Boyd, W. C.

    1990-01-01

    The current Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering Engine (OME) is pressure fed, utilizing storable propellants. Performance uprating of this engine, through the use of a gas generator driven turbopump to increase operating pressure, is being pursued by the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). Component level design, fabrication, and test activities for this engine system have been on-going since 1984. More recently, a complete engine designated the Integrated Component Test Bed (ICTB), was tested at sea level conditions by Aerojet. A description of the test hardware and results of the sea level test program are presented. These results, which include the test condition operating envelope and projected performance at altitude conditions, confirm the capability of the selected Uprated OME (UOME) configuration to meet or exceed performance and operational requirements. Engine flexibility, demonstrated through testing at two different operational mixture ratios, along with a summary of projected Space Shuttle performance enhancements using the UOME, are discussed. Planned future activities, including ICTB tests at simulated altitude conditions, and recommendations for further engine development, are also discussed.

  9. Regional Sea Level Variation: California Coastal Subsidence (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blewitt, G.; Hammond, W. C.; Nerem, R.

    2013-12-01

    Satellite altimetry over the last two decades has measured variations in geocentric sea level (GSL), relative to the Earth system center of mass, providing valuable data to test models of physical oceanography and the effects of global climate change. The societal impacts of sea level change however relate to variations in local sea level (LSL), relative to the land at the coast. Therefore, assessing the impacts of sea level change requires coastal measurements of vertical land motion (VLM). Indeed, ΔLSL = ΔGSL - ΔVLM, with subsidence mapping 1:1 into LSL. Measurements of secular coastal VLM also allow tide-gauge data to test models of GSL over the last century in some locations, which cannot be provided by satellite data. Here we use GPS geodetic data within 15 km of the US west coast to infer regional, secular VLM. A total of 89 GPS stations met the criteria that time series span >4.5 yr, and do not have obvious non-linear variation, as may be caused by local instability. VLM rates for the GPS stations are derived in the secular reference frame ITRF2008, which aligns with the Earth system center of mass to ×0.5 mm/yr. We find that regional VLM has different behavior north and south of the Mendocino Triple Junction (MTJ). The California coast has a coherent regional pattern of subsidence averaging 0.5 mm/yr, with an increasing trend to the north. This trend generally matches GIA model predictions. Around San Francisco Bay, the observed coastal subsidence of 1.0 mm/yr coherently decreases moving away from the Pacific Ocean to very small subsidence on the east shores of the bay. This gradient is likely caused by San Andreas-Hayward Fault tectonics, and possibly by differential surface loading across the bay and Sacramento-San Joachim River Delta. Thus in addition to the trend in subsidence from GIA going northward along the California coast, tectonics may also play a role where the plate boundary fault system approaches the coast. In contrast, we find that VLM

  10. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  11. Portrait of a Warming Ocean and Rising Sea Levels: Trend of Sea Level Change 1993-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Warming water and melting land ice have raised global mean sea level 4.5 centimeters (1.7 inches) from 1993 to 2008. But the rise is by no means uniform. This image, created with sea surface height data from the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites, shows exactly where sea level has changed during this time and how quickly these changes have occurred. It's also a road map showing where the ocean currently stores the growing amount of heat it is absorbing from Earth's atmosphere and the heat it receives directly from the Sun. The warmer the water, the higher the sea surface rises. The location of heat in the ocean and its movement around the globe play a pivotal role in Earth's climate. Light blue indicates areas in which sea level has remained relatively constant since 1993. White, red, and yellow are regions where sea levels have risen the most rapidly up to 10 millimeters per year and which contain the most heat. Green areas have also risen, but more moderately. Purple and dark blue show where sea levels have dropped, due to cooler water. The dramatic variation in sea surface heights and heat content across the ocean are due to winds, currents and long-term changes in patterns of circulation. From 1993 to 2008, the largest area of rapidly rising sea levels and the greatest concentration of heat has been in the Pacific, which now shows the characteristics of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a feature that can last 10 to 20 years or even longer. In this 'cool' phase, the PDO appears as a horseshoe-shaped pattern of warm water in the Western Pacific reaching from the far north to the Southern Ocean enclosing a large wedge of cool water with low sea surface heights in the eastern Pacific. This ocean/climate phenomenon may be caused by wind-driven Rossby waves. Thousands of kilometers long, these waves move from east to west on either side of the equator changing the distribution of water mass and heat. This image of sea level trend also reveals a significant

  12. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from

  13. 60-year Nordic and arctic sea level reconstruction based on a reprocessed two decade altimetric sea level record and tide gauges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    Due to the sparsity and often poor quality of data, reconstructing Arctic sea level is highly challenging. We present a reconstruction of Arctic sea level covering 1950 to 2010, using the approaches from Church et al. (2004) and Ray and Douglas (2011). This involves decomposition of an altimetry ...... calibration record into EOFs, and fitting these patterns to a historical tide gauge record....

  14. The analysis of Last Interglacial (MIS 5e) relative sea-level indicators: Reconstructing sea-level in a warmer world

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rovere, A.; Raymo, M.E.; Vacchi, M.; Lorscheid, T; Stocchi, P.; Gómez-Pujolf, L.; Harris, D.L.; Casella, E.; O'Leary, M.J.; Hearty, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (MIS 5e, 128–116 ka) is among the most studied past periods in Earth's history. The climate at that time was warmer than today, primarily due to different orbital conditions, with smaller ice sheets and higher sea-level. Field evidence for MIS 5e sea-level was reported from tho

  15. Long Term Sea Level Change and Water Mass Balance in the South China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    RONG Zengrui; LIU Yuguang; ZONG Haibo; XIU Peng

    2009-01-01

    Sea level anomalies observed by altimeter during the 1993-2006 period, thermosterie sea level anomalies estimated by using subsurface temperature data produced by Ishii and SODA reanalysis data, tide gauge records and HOAPS freshwater flux data were analyzed to investigate the long term sea level change and the water mass balance in the South China Sea. The altimeter-observed sea level showed a rising rate of (3.5±0.9)mm yr-1 during the period 1993-2006, but this figure was considered to have been highly distorted by the relatively short time interval and the large inter-decadal variability, which apparently exists in both the thermosteric sea level and the observed sea level. Long term thermosteric sea level from 1945 to 2004 gave a rising rate of 0.15±0.06 mmyr-1. Tide gauge data revealed this discrepancy and the regional distributions of the sea-level trends. Both the 'real' and the thermosteric sea level showed a good correspondence to ENSO: decreasing during E1 Nifio years and increasing during La Nina years. Amplitude and phase differences between the 'real' sea level and the thermosteic sea level were substantially revealed on both seasonal and interannual time scales. As one of the possible factors, the freshwater flux might play an important role in balancing the water mass.

  16. The Twentieth-Century Sea Level Budget: Recent Progress and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Matthews, A.; Slangen, A.

    2017-01-01

    For coastal areas, given the large and growing concentration of population and economic activity, as well as the importance of coastal ecosystems, sea level rise is one of the most damaging aspects of the warming climate. Huge progress in quantifying the cause of sea level rise and closure of sea level budget for the period since the 1990s has been made mainly due to the development of the global observing system for sea level components and total sea levels. We suggest that a large spread (1.2 ± 0.2-1.9 ± 0.3 mm year-1) in estimates of sea level rise during the twentieth century from several reconstructions demonstrates the need for and importance of the rescue of historical observations from tide gauges, with a focus on the beginning of the twentieth century. Understanding the physical mechanisms contributing to sea level rise and controlling the variability of sea level over the past few 100 years are a challenging task. In this study, we provide an overview of the progress in understanding the cause of sea level rise during the twentieth century and highlight the main challenges facing the interdisciplinary sea level community in understanding the complex nature of sea level changes.

  17. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...... of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and surface air temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea...... level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s is exceptional in the sense that sea level and warming deviates from the expected...

  18. Sensitivity of Last Interglacial sea-level high stands to ice sheet configuration during Marine Isotope Stage 6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dendy, S.; Austermann, J.; Creveling, J. R.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2017-09-01

    Estimates of peak global mean sea level (GMSL) during the Last Interglacial (LIG, ∼129-116 ka) based on geological sea level high-stand markers require a correction for the contaminating influence of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). This correction is obtained by calculating the viscoelastic response of the Earth to changes in the ice and ocean load prior to and following the LIG. While ice retreat over the last deglaciation is relatively well constrained, changes in ice cover prior to the LIG are more uncertain. We investigate the sensitivity of numerical predictions of GIA during the LIG to variations in the geometry of pre-LIG ice cover and the timing of the deglaciation into the LIG, with a particular focus on Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6 (∼190-130 ka). We demonstrate that reconstructing the pre-LIG ice history by replicating the last glacial cycle back in time, rather than using ice volume approximations based on oxygen isotope records, can introduce errors in LIG high-stand predictions of ∼5 m at sites on the peripheral bulge of major ice complexes, and up to ∼2 m at far-field sites. We also demonstrate that predictions of LIG sea level are more sensitive to the geographic distribution of ice cover during MIS 6 than previously recognized. Adopting simulations which vary the relative size of Late Pleistocene ice cover over North America and Eurasia can yield a change in predicted high-stand elevations of ∼5 m in both the near and far field of northern hemisphere ice sheets. This far-field sensitivity arises, in part, from the reorientation of Earth's rotation axis during MIS 6, which in turn drives sea-level changes with a distinct geographic signature. In future work we will apply the insights gained here to re-evaluate the observed geographic variability in geological high-stand markers of LIG age and estimates of GMSL based upon them.

  19. Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise (Invited Talk)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J. E.

    2015-12-01

    Caution is an essential ingredient in scientific investigations, as success in science depends on objective skepticism. In some cases a cultural resistance to scientific discovery has seemed to exist and there are other factors that can contribute to scientific reticence. In a case such as ice sheet instability and sea level rise there is a danger that excessive caution might serve to lock in future disasters. I discussed these issues almost a decade ago (in Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 024002, 2007, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002), but given all that has transpired since then, this topic has become even more relevant and urgent. I will discuss the status of this dilemma as I see it.

  20. Salt marsh stability modelled in relation to sea level rise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartholdy, Jesper; Bartholdy, Anders; Kroon, Aart

    2010-01-01

    Accretion on a natural backbarrier salt marsh was modeled as a function of high tide level, initial salt marsh level and distance to the source. Calibration of the model was based on up to ca 80 year old marker horizons, supplemented by 210Pb/137Cs datings and subsequent measurements of clay...... rise, the marsh at the specific location will eventually drown, whereas - with a sea level rise below this level – it will grow towards the top of the rising tidal frame. The short term variation of salt marsh accretion was found to correlate well with variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation...... - relatively quickly grow above the level of the highest astronomical tide, whereas this - in practice - will never happen for the latter....

  1. Arctic sea-level reconstruction analysis using recent satellite altimetry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svendsen, Peter Limkilde; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg

    2014-01-01

    We present a sea-level reconstruction for the Arctic Ocean using recent satellite altimetry data. The model, forced by historical tide gauge data, is based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) from a calibration period; for this purpose, newly retracked satellite altimetry from ERS-1 and -2...... and Envisat has been used. Despite the limited coverage of these datasets, we have made a reconstruction up to 82 degrees north for the period 1950–2010. We place particular emphasis on determining appropriate preprocessing for the tide gauge data, and on validation of the model, including the ability...... to reconstruct known data. The relationship between the reconstruction and climatic variables, such as atmospheric pressure, and climate oscillations, including the Arctic Oscillation (AO), is examined....

  2. Sea Level Enigmatic Rising - New Perspectives from an Expanding Globe

    CERN Document Server

    Scalera, Giancarlo

    2015-01-01

    In the expanding Earth framework it is possible to find additional phenomena that could contribute in a proper way to the water balance and general tectonic eustatism involved in the sea lever rising. Recent compilations seems to leave unexplained up to 12 cm/century of sea rising, and possible solutions invoking a polar ice shells melting near to the upper limit of the error bars reveal in conflict with the consequent expected decreasing of the Earth angular velocity. It is shown that taking into account possible effects of an expanding Earth, the problem can be initiated towards an appropriate solution, at least as regards the just orders of magnitude. Major effects on sea-level could come from ongoing relaxation of curvature variations that are peculiar for an expanding globe.

  3. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  4. Anomalies Thermosteric and Halosteric Contributions to Sea Level Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, C. E.; Polito, P. S.

    2015-12-01

    Sea level anomaly (SLA) is an important indicator of changes in the Earth's climate system because the oceans have great heat storage capacity. The sea level variation is due to combination of thermosteric and halosteric effects. These two effects play significant roles in the annual cycle of the SLA and maintain the thermohaline circulation. Previous studies only considered the thermosteric effect. The main goal of this study was to determine the regions of the global ocean where the variability induced by halosteric effect is equal or higher than that induced by thermosteric effect. We used temperature and salinity data from World Ocean Atlas 2013 (WOA13) with spatial resolution of 1°x1° during the period of 1955 to 2012 to calculate the coefficient of thermal expansion (α), haline contraction (β) and to estimate their contributions to the SLA variation in the global ocean. Our results showed that the thermosteric effect is dominant in the tropical and subtropical regions due to high insolation throughout the year. However, in polar regions, North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans the halosteric effect was the main contributor to SLA variation. In polar regions, the effect occurs because of the lack in temperature variation and the fact that in this region the precipitation rate exceeds evaporation increasing the freshwater input. In the others, the mechanism is still unknown. The linear trend of thermosteric and halosteric components for 1955-2012 is 0.35mm/yr and 0.07mm/yr, respectively. This results shows that halosteric effect should be considered in the heat storage estimation from satellite data, in situ data and numerical modelling contrasting the previous approaches to SLA.

  5. Drivers of sea-level change - using relative sea level records from the North and South Atlantic to fingerprint sources of mid-Holocene ice melt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, B.; Khan, N.; Ashe, E.; Kopp, R. E.; Long, A. J.; Gehrels, W. R.

    2015-12-01

    Many factors give rise to relative sea-level (RSL) changes that are far from globally uniform. For example, spatially variable sea-level responses arise because of the exchange of mass between ice sheets and oceans. Gravitational, flexural, and rotational processes generate a distinct spatial pattern - or "fingerprint" - of sea-level change associated with each shrinking land ice mass. As a land ice mass shrinks, sea-level rise is greater in areas geographically distal to the ice mass than in areas proximal to it, in large part because the gravitational attraction between the ice mass and the ocean is reduced. Thus, the U.S. mid-Atlantic coastline experiences about 50% of the global average sea-level-rise due to Greenland Ice Sheet melt, but about 120% of the global average due to West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt. Separating the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet contributions during the past 7,000 years requires analysis of sea-level changes from sites in the northern and southern hemisphere. Accordingly we present sea-level records within a hierarchical statistical modeling to: (1) quantify rates of change; (2) compare rates of change among sites, including full quantification of the uncertainty in their differences; and (3) test hypotheses about the sources of meltwater through their sea-level fingerprints. Preliminary analysis of three sites within our North and South Atlantic sea-level database indicates sea-level gradient in the rate of RSL rise during the mid Holocene between 6000 and 4000 years BP; a greater change in rate is found in Brazil than St Croix than New Jersey, consistent with an increase and then decrease in Greenland Ice Sheet mass.

  6. Generalized Cauchy model of sea level fluctuations with long-range dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ming; Li, Jia-Yue

    2017-10-01

    This article suggests the contributions with two highlights. One is to propose a novel model of sea level fluctuations (sea level for short), which is called the generalized Cauchy (GC) process. It provides a new outlook for the description of local and global behaviors of sea level from a view of fractal in that the fractal dimension D that measures the local behavior of sea level and the Hurst parameter H which characterizes the global behavior of sea level are independent of each other. The other is to show that sea level appears multi-fractal in both spatial and time. Such a meaning of multi-fractal is new in the sense that a pair of fractal parameters (D, H) of sea level is varying with measurement sites and time. This research exhibits that the ranges of D and H of sea level, in general, are 1 ≤ D 0 . 96 for all data records at all measurement sites, implying that strong LRD may be a general phenomenon of sea level. On the other side, regarding with the local behavior, we will reveal that there appears D = 1 or D ≈ 1 for data records at a few stations and at some time, but D > 0 . 96 at most stations and at most time, meaning that sea level may appear highly local irregularity more frequently than weak local one.

  7. A 500 kyr record of global sea-level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea-level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea-level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion. Five main sequences, stacked during the sea-level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles, form the upper stratigraphic outbuilding of the continental margin. The high sensitivity of the grain-size record down the borehole to sea-level oscillations can be explained by the great width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf. Sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf cyclically modified the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea-level oscillations at millennial time-scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea-levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence for a one-to-one coupling of millennial time-scale sea-level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  8. A 500 kyr record of global sea level oscillations in the Gulf of Lion, Mediterranean Sea: new insights into MIS 3 sea level variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Frigola

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Borehole PRGL1-4 drilled in the upper slope of the Gulf of Lion provides an exceptional record to investigate the impact of Late Pleistocene orbitally-driven glacio-eustatic sea level oscillations on the sedimentary outbuilding of a river fed continental margin. High-resolution grain-size and geochemical records supported by oxygen isotope chronostratigraphy allow reinterpreting the last 500 ka upper slope seismostratigraphy of the Gulf of Lion which consists of five main sequences stacked during the sea level lowering phases of the last five glacial-interglacial 100-kyr cycles. The high sensitivity to sea level oscillations of the grain-size record along the borehole, favoured by the large width of the Gulf of Lion continental shelf, demonstrates that sea level driven changes in accommodation space over the shelf are able to cyclically modify the depositional mode of the entire margin. PRGL1-4 data also illustrate the imprint of sea level oscillations at millennial scale, as shown for Marine Isotopic Stage 3, and provide unambiguous evidence of relative high sea levels at the onset of each Dansgaard-Oeschger Greenland warm interstadial. The PRGL1-4 grain-size record represents the first evidence ever for a one-to-one coupling of millennial-scale sea level oscillations associated with each Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.

  9. Building Stories about Sea Level Rise through Interactive Visualizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, S. H.; DeLorme, D. E.; Hagen, S. C.

    2013-12-01

    Digital media provide storytellers with dynamic new tools for communicating about scientific issues via interactive narrative visualizations. While traditional storytelling uses plot, characterization, and point of view to engage audiences with underlying themes and messages, interactive visualizations can be described as 'narrative builders' that promote insight through the process of discovery (Dove, G. & Jones, S. 2012, Proc. IHCI 2012). Narrative visualizations are used in online journalism to tell complex stories that allow readers to select aspects of datasets to explore and construct alternative interpretations of information (Segel, E. & Heer, J. 2010, IEEE Trans. Vis. Comp. Graph.16, 1139), thus enabling them to participate in the story-building process. Nevertheless, narrative visualizations also incorporate author-selected narrative elements that help guide and constrain the overall themes and messaging of the visualization (Hullman, J. & Diakopoulos, N. 2011, IEEE Trans. Vis. Comp. Graph. 17, 2231). One specific type of interactive narrative visualization that is used for science communication is the sea level rise (SLR) viewer. SLR viewers generally consist of a base map, upon which projections of sea level rise scenarios can be layered, and various controls for changing the viewpoint and scenario parameters. They are used to communicate the results of scientific modeling and help readers visualize the potential impacts of SLR on the coastal zone. Readers can use SLR viewers to construct personal narratives of the effects of SLR under different scenarios in locations that are important to them, thus extending the potential reach and impact of scientific research. With careful selection of narrative elements that guide reader interpretation, the communicative aspects of these visualizations may be made more effective. This presentation reports the results of a content analysis of a subset of existing SLR viewers selected in order to comprehensively

  10. Modeling storm and sea level rise impacts on marsh transgression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, J. A.; Guntenspergen, G. R.; Kirwan, M. L.

    2016-12-01

    Coastal salt marsh systems provide critical ecosystem services, including key habitat and coastal protection. Both lateral extent, and vertical stability of salt marshes to sea level rise have been shown to be functions of both biotic, and abiotic drivers and feedbacks. As a result, the ecogeomorphic evolution of the system can exhibit strong non-linearities, discontinuities and thresholds. We developed a two-dimensional transect model to explore controls on marsh lateral extent, vertical stability and the potential for marsh transgression inland and upland. Salt marsh and upland regions in the model are discretized in 1 m increments with inundation frequency determined by the elevation of the individual cells, organogenic soil formation and mineral deposition rates, and the history of stochastic water levels. The transect extends from an idealized back barrier bay across the salt marsh platform and into the upland forest and is forced with auto and cross correlated synthetic stochastic wind speed, wind direction and water levels. The model incorporates key feedbacks between fetch, wave growth and subsequent lateral erosion rates and sediment supply to the marsh platform. Deposition of mineral sediment from the bay and/or internal ponds onto the marsh platform cells is dependent both on the inundation frequency and distance from a marsh edge. For each element along the transect, a Markov chain successional model was implemented that considers six distinct states, grass/saltmarsh, seedling, sapling, tree, dead standing tree, and bare. A non-static transition probability matrix, dependent on both inundation of the element and the prior vegetation state, was used in order to allow for feedbacks, both positive and negative, among different vegetation states and environmental drivers. The model was used to examine the qualitative behavior of the coupled systems under varied rates of sea level rise, external sediment supply, wind and storm statistics, tidal range, upland

  11. Global and Local Sea Level During the Last Interglacial: A Probabilistic Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Kopp, Robert E; Maloof, Adam C; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2009-01-01

    The Last Interglacial (LIG) stage, with polar temperatures likely 3-5 C warmer than today, serves as a partial analogue for low-end future warming scenarios. Based upon a small set of local sea level indicators, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) inferred that LIG global sea level (GSL) was about 4-6 m higher than today. However, because local sea levels differ from GSL, accurately reconstructing past GSL requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we compile an extensive database of sea level indicators and apply a novel statistical approach that couples Gaussian process regression of sea level to Markov Chain Monte Carlo modeling of geochronological errors. Our analysis strongly supports the hypothesis that LIG GSL was higher than today, probably peaking at 6-9 m. Our results highlight the sea level hazard associated with even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

  12. Statistical analysis of global surface temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to the lack of representation of ice-sheet dynamics in present-day physically-based climate models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends......, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting of future sea levels. There is in this, however, potential pitfalls due to the trending nature of the time series. We apply a statistical method called cointegration analysis to observed global sea level and land-ocean surface air...... temperature, capable of handling such peculiarities. We find a relationship between sea level and temperature and find that temperature causally depends on the sea level, which can be understood as a consequence of the large heat capacity of the ocean. We further find that the warming episode in the 1940s...

  13. Potential for bias in 21st century semiempirical sea level projections

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jevrejeva, S.; Moore, J. C.; Grinsted, A.

    2012-01-01

    We examine the limitations of a semiempirical model characterized by a sea level projection of 73 cm with RCP4.5 scenario by 2100. Calibrating the model with data to 1990 and then simulating the period 1993-2009 produces sea level in close agreement with acceleration in sea level rise observed...... and dynamics of Greenland ice sheet made contributions to the sea level rise in the early 20th century and therefore are included within the semiempirical model calibration period and hence are included in semiempirical sea level projections by 2100. Antarctic response is probably absent from semiempirical...... models, which will lead to a underestimate in sea level rise if, as is probable, Antarctica loses mass by 2100....

  14. The coherence of small island sea-level with the wider ocean: a model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Williams

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Studies comparing tide gauge measurements with sea level from nearby satellite altimetry have shown good agreement for some islands, and poor agreement for others, though no explanation has been offered. Using the 1/12° OCCAM ocean model, we investigate the relationship between sea level at small, open-ocean islands, and offshore sea level. For every such island or seamount in the model, we compare the shallow-water sea level with the steric and bottom pressure variability in a neighboring ring of deep water. We find a latitude-dependent range of frequencies for which off-shore sea level is poorly correlated with island sea level. This poor coherence occurs in a spectral region for which steric signals dominate, but are unable to propagate as baroclinic Rossby waves. This mode of decoupling does not arise because of island topography, as the same decoupling is seen between deep ocean points and surrounding rings.

  15. Mean sea-level height variations in the Central Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zerbini, Susanna; Bruni, Sara; Errico, Maddalena; Petracca, Fernanda; Raicich, Fabio; Santi, Efisio

    2015-04-01

    The Italian tide gauge network has experienced difficulties during last century. However, historical time series, starting from the end of the ninetieth century, are available in the PSMSL data base (Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, http://www.psmsl.org/data/). Data from the early 1980s can also be obtained from the data base of ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale, http://www.mareografico.it). In 1998, the Italian national tide gauge network (Rete Mareografica Nazionale - RMN) was completely restructured; it consists of 36 homogeneously distributed stations providing measurements sampled every 10 minutes. We have analyzed both the historical and the recent time series of a sub set of stations located in the Tyrrhenian area by using the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) approach. The EOF analysis allows describing one data set as a linear combination of orthogonal components, or modes, that depend on position only, while the linear combination coefficients are functions of time only. Each mode is associated to a percentage of the total variance of the original data set, which accounts for the relative importance of the corresponding mode of variability. The aim of this work is to identify common modes which could possibly be related to wide area crustal deformation and/or to climatic fluctuations, such as the inverted barometer effect.

  16. Compounding effects of sea level rise and fluvial flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moftakhari, Hamed R; Salvadori, Gianfausto; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F; Matthew, Richard A

    2017-09-12

    Sea level rise (SLR), a well-documented and urgent aspect of anthropogenic global warming, threatens population and assets located in low-lying coastal regions all around the world. Common flood hazard assessment practices typically account for one driver at a time (e.g., either fluvial flooding only or ocean flooding only), whereas coastal cities vulnerable to SLR are at risk for flooding from multiple drivers (e.g., extreme coastal high tide, storm surge, and river flow). Here, we propose a bivariate flood hazard assessment approach that accounts for compound flooding from river flow and coastal water level, and we show that a univariate approach may not appropriately characterize the flood hazard if there are compounding effects. Using copulas and bivariate dependence analysis, we also quantify the increases in failure probabilities for 2030 and 2050 caused by SLR under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5. Additionally, the increase in failure probability is shown to be strongly affected by compounding effects. The proposed failure probability method offers an innovative tool for assessing compounding flood hazards in a warming climate.

  17. Extracting sea level residual in tidally dominated estuarine environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jennifer M.; Bolaños, Rodolfo; Howarth, Michael J.; Souza, Alejandro J.

    2012-07-01

    Sea level comprises a mean level, tidal elevation and a residual elevation. Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. However, different methods to extract deviations in water level (residuals) from modelled and observed elevation can give different results. The Dee Estuary, northwest England is a macrotidal estuary that undergoes periodic stratification. It is used here to demonstrate methods to extract the residual water level in response to the following interactive processes: tidal, river-induced stratification and flow, meteorology and waves. Using modelling techniques, the interaction and contribution of different physical processes are investigated. Classical harmonic tidal analysis, model simulations and filtering techniques have been used to "de-tide" the total elevation for short-term (approximately month long) records. Each technique gives a different result highlighting the need to select the correct method for a required study. Analysis of the residual components demonstrates that all processes inducing residuals interact with the tide generating a semi-diurnal residual component. It is suggested that modelling methods enable the full effect of tidal interaction to remain in the residual, whilst harmonic tidal analysis (partly) modify and filtering methods (fully) remove this component of the residual. The analysis methods presented and their influences on the resultant residual are applicable to other study sites. However, when applied specifically to the mouth of the Dee Estuary, the external surge is found to be the main contributor to the total residual, whilst local wind and stratification effects are of secondary importance.

  18. The Sedimentary Record of Sea-Level Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coe, Angela L.; Bosence, Dan W. J.; Church, Kevin D.; Flint, Stephen S.; Howell, John A.; Wilson, R. Chris L.

    2003-05-01

    This unique textbook describes how past changes in sea-level can be detected through an analysis of the sedimentary record. In particular, it concentrates on the current sequence stratigraphy model. It explains this model from basics and shows how the model can be applied to both siliciclastic and carbonate successions. Designed for undergraduate and graduate courses in sequence stratigraphy, as well as for professional courses within the petroleum industry, this full-colour textbook includes numerous features that will aid tutors and students alike. These include detailed case studies demonstrating the practical applications of sequence stratigraphy and set-aside boxes providing supplementary and background information. Bulleted questions and answers are interspersed throughout the text, encouraging students to test their understanding of the material. The book is supported by a website hosting sample pages from the book, selected illustrations to download, and worked exercises. Written and developed over a number of years by a team of experts from the Open University Full colour throughout with superb illustrations Contains many pedagogical features that will appeal to students and tutors Supported by a website hosting sample pages, illustrations and worked exercises

  19. Cerebral vasoreactivity in Andeans and headache at sea level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appenzeller, O; Passino, C; Roach, R; Gamboa, J; Gamboa, A; Bernardi, L; Bonfichi, M; Malcovati, L

    2004-04-15

    Headache is common in Cerro de Pasco (CP), Peru (altitude 4338 m) and was present in all patients with chronic mountain sickness (CMS) in CP reported here. Forty-seven percent of inhabitants report headache. Twenty-four percent of men have migraine with aura, with an average of 65 attacks a year. We assessed vasoreactivity of the cerebral vessels to CO2 by rebreathing and to NO by the administration of isosorbite dinitrate (IDN), a nitric oxide (NO) donor, using transcranial Doppler ultrasound in the middle cerebral artery (MCA) in natives of CP, some of whom suffered from CMS. We repeated the measurements in Lima (altitude 150 m) in the same subjects within 24 h of arrival. Vasodilatation in the middle cerebral artery supply territory in response to CO2 and NO, both physiologic vasodilators, is defective in Andean natives at altitude and in the same subjects at sea level. Incapacitating migraine can occur with impaired cerebral vasoreactivity to physiologic vasodilators. We propose that susceptibility to migraine might depend in part on gene expression with consequent alterations of endothelial function.

  20. A study of long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ying; LIN Mingsen; ZHENG Quanan; YE Xiaomin; LI Junyi; ZHU Benlu

    2015-01-01

    From the analyses of the satellite altimeter Maps of Sea Level Anomaly (MSLA) data, tidal gauge sea level data and historical sea level data, this paper investigates the long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea (ECS). Based on the correlation analysis, we calculate the correlation coefficient between tidal gauge and the closest MSLA grid point, then generate the map of correlation coefficient of the entire ECS. The results show that the satellite altimeter MSLA data is effective to observe coastal sea level variability. An important finding is that from map of correlation coefficient we can identify the Kuroshio. The existence of Kuroshio decreases the correlation between coastal and the Pacific sea level. Kurishio likes a barrier or a wall, which blocks the effect of the Pacific and the global change. Moreover, coastal sea level in the ECS is mainly associated with local systems rather than global change. In order to calculate the long-term sea level variability trend, the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method is applied to derive the trend on each MSLA grid point in the entire ECS. According to the 2-D distribution of the trend and rising rate, the sea level on the right side of the axis of Kuroshio rise faster than in its left side. This result supports the barrier effect of Kuroshio in the ECS. For the entire ECS, the average sea level rose 45.0 mm between 1993 and 2010, with a rising rate of (2.5±0.4) mm/a which is slower than global average. The relatively slower sea level rising rate further proves that sea level rise in the ECS has less response to global change due to its own local system effect.

  1. The sea level fingerprint of 21st century ice mass fluxes

    OpenAIRE

    Bamber, J.; Riva, R.

    2010-01-01

    The sea level contribution from glacial sources has been accelerating during the 21st century (Meier et al., 2007; Velicogna, 2009). This contribution is not distributed uniformly across the world's oceans due to both oceanographic and gravitational effects. We compute the sea level signature of 21st century ice mass fluxes due to changes in the gravity field, Earth's rotation and related effects. Mass loss from Greenland results in a relative sea level (RSL) reduction for much of North Weste...

  2. GIS analysis of effects of future Baltic sea level rise on the island of Gotland, Sweden

    OpenAIRE

    Ebert, K.; K. Ekstedt; J. Jarsjö

    2016-01-01

    Future sea level rise as a consequence of global warming will affect the world's coastal regions. Even though the pace of sea level rise is not clear, the consequences will be severe and global. Commonly the effects of future sea level rise are investigated for relatively vulnerable development countries; however, a whole range of varying regions needs to be considered in order to improve the understanding of global consequences. In this paper we investigate consequences of ...

  3. Probabilistic projection of sea-level change along the world's coastlines

    OpenAIRE

    Perrette, M.; F. Landerer; Riva, R.; Frieler, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets. Locally, sea-level changes can strongly deviate from the global mean due to ocean dynamics. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses, an effect currently not incorporated in climate models. Here, we provide probabilistic projections of sea level changes along the world's coastlines for ...

  4. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    OpenAIRE

    Perrette, M.; F. Landerer; Riva, R.; Frieler, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive region...

  5. Implications of sediment redistribution on modeled sea-level changes over millennial timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrier, Ken

    2016-04-01

    Sea level is a critical link in feedbacks among topography, tectonics, and climate. Over millennial timescales, changes in sea level reshape river networks, regulate organic carbon burial, influence sediment deposition, and set moving boundary conditions for landscape evolution. Sea-level changes influence tectonics by regulating rates and patterns of erosion and deposition, which perturb the surface loads that drive geodynamic processes at depth. These interactions are complex because sea-level changes are influenced by the geomorphic processes that they themselves modify, since sediment redistribution deforms the gravitational and crustal elevation fields that define sea level. A recent advance in understanding the coupling between sea level, tectonics, and topography was the incorporation of sediment redistribution into a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model, which permits the computation of sea-level responses to erosion and deposition (Dalca et al., 2013, Geophysical Journal International). Here I use this model to quantify changes in sea level resulting from the erosion of some of the most rapidly eroding sites on Earth and the deposition of sediment offshore. These model results show that the sea-level fingerprints of sediment redistribution are strongly variable in space, and that they can represent a significant component of the total sea level change since the last interglacial. This work provides a basis for understanding a fundamental driver of landscape evolution at some of Earth's most geomorphically dynamic sites, and thus aids investigation of the couplings among tectonics, climate, and topography. References Dalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

  6. Bowie Lecture: The Record of Sea Level Change from Satellite Measurements: What Have We Learned?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerem, R. S.

    2005-12-01

    Over the last decade, satellite geodetic measurements together with in situ measurements, have revolutionized our understanding of present-day sea level change. This is important because sea level change can be used as one barometer of climate variations and because of the implications sea level change has for coastal populations. With measurements from satellite altimeter missions (TOPEX/Posiedon and Jason), satellite gravity missions (GRACE), and the Global Positioning System (GPS), we are now able to start asking some important questions with regards to global sea level change and its regional variations. What has been the rate of global mean sea level change over the last dozen years? Is this rate different from the historical rate observed by the tide gauges over the last century? What are the principal causes of the observed sea level change, and are they related to anthropogenic climate variations? The record of sea level change from satellite altimetry will be reviewed, its error sources and limitations discussed, and the results placed in context with other estimates of sea level change from tide gauges, in situ measurements, and global climate models. The much shorter, but just as important, record of ocean mass variations from satellite gravity measurements will be similarly reviewed. In addition, GPS measurements of the deformation of the solid Earth due to the melting of continental ice and what they tell us about sea level change will be discussed. A sea level change budget will be presented, both for the altimetric era and the last century, containing estimates of contributions from thermal expansion, ocean mass changes (melting ice, runoff, etc.), and other contributions to sea level change. Finally, the need for continuing the satellite measurements of sea level change will be discussed in the context of future missions and the scientific gain that would result.

  7. A global observing system for monitoring and prediction of sea level change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Lee-Lueng

    The rise of global sea level is a direct consequence of climate change. A one-meter rise by the end of the century is estimated to have global economic impacts by trillions of US dollars and displacement of 10% of the world’s population if no adaptation is applied. Before the advent of satellite observations of sea surface height with radar altimetry, it was not possible to make direct determination of the global mean sea level. The sparsely located tide gauges were not able to sample the uneven spatial distribution of sea level change, leading to biased measurement. The 20-year record from satellite altimetry is the first directly measured time series of the global mean sea level. The satellite’s uniform global sampling also reveals the complex geographic pattern of sea level change over the past 20 years, underscoring the uncertainty from sparse tide gauge measurement. The contributions to recent sea level rise have roughly equal partitions among the steric effect from ocean warming, the melting of mountain glaciers, and the melting of polar ice sheets. The measurement of the change of Earth’s gravity field from the GRACE Mission has for the first time provided direct observation of the mass added to the ocean from ice melting. The difference between altimetry and gravity measurements is attributed to the steric sea level change, which has been observed by an in-situ network of float measurement (Argo). The intercomparison of satellite and in-situ observations has provided cross-calibration and mutual validation of the measurement system, demonstrating a calibrated measurement system for global sea level. The ability to diagnose sea level change in terms of its various components represents a key step towards understanding the physical processes. In order to assess the societal impact of sea level rise, one must be able to predict its regional pattern, which involves a host of other factors. The prediction of sea level change thus requires an Earth system

  8. Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 AD

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grinsted, Aslak; Moore, John; Jevrejeva, Svetlana

    2010-01-01

    . The model has good predictive power when calibrated on the pre-1990 period and validated against the high rates of sea level rise from the satellite altimetry. Future sea level is projected from intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) temperature scenarios and past sea level from established multi......We use a physically plausible four parameter linear response equation to relate 2,000 years of global temperatures and sea level. We estimate likelihood distributions of equation parameters using Monte Carlo inversion, which then allows visualization of past and future sea level scenarios......-proxy reconstructions assuming that the established relationship between temperature and sea level holds from 200 to 2100 ad. Over the last 2,000 years minimum sea level (-19 to -26 cm) occurred around 1730 ad, maximum sea level (12–21 cm) around 1150 AD. Sea level 2090–2099 is projected to be 0.9 to 1.3 m for the A1B...

  9. Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: an application of DIVA

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, S; Nicholls, R.J.; Lowe, J A; Hinkel, J.

    2013-01-01

    Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and pattern...

  10. The Sea-Level Fingerprints of Ice-Sheet Collapse During Interglacial Periods (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, C.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Gomez, N. A.; Creveling, J. R.; Austermann, J.; Kopp, R. E.

    2013-12-01

    Peak sea-level highstands during previous interglacials provide important insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in a warming world. In most previous analyses of such highstands, site-specific sea-level records are first corrected for the ongoing effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). The residual sea level is then interpreted as representing the net eustatic signal associated with any excess melting of the polar ice sheets relative to their present-day volumes. However, it is now well understood that the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change. These sea-level fingerprints must be accounted for in order to accurately estimate global eustatic sea level from site-specific (GIA-corrected) records. To investigate this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. We demonstrate that these fingerprints are, in contrast to those computed for modern melt scenarios, relatively insensitive to the detailed geometry of ice-sheet collapse. Moreover, using these fingerprints, we isolate regions that would have experienced greater-than-eustatic sea-level change regardless of the melt scenario. Finally, we use the fingerprints to demonstrate that some previous analyses of sea-level records from past interglacials may have overestimated peak eustatic sea level (and thus the net excess melting of polar ice sheets) by 1-2 m.

  11. ENSO signature in the sea level along the coastline of Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Revichandran, C.

    was −0.29 (1332 values), indicating a comparatively stronger negative associationship. The sea level on an average, over large areas responds to the atmospheric pressure as an inverted barometer (i.e., 1 cm decrease in sea level for 1mb increase... barometer response was 1.6 cm/mb. Anomalies of sea level along the coastline of the Indian Subcontinent Time series of the detrended and smoothened anomalies of sea level are presented for stations on the west coast in Fig. 3, and in Fig. 4...

  12. Tidal Marshes across a Chesapeake Bay Subestuary Are Not Keeping up with Sea-Level Rise

    OpenAIRE

    Beckett, Leah H.; Baldwin, Andrew H.; Kearney, Michael S

    2016-01-01

    Sea-level rise is a major factor in wetland loss worldwide, and in much of Chesapeake Bay (USA) the rate of sea-level rise is higher than the current global rate of 3.2 mm yr-1 due to regional subsidence. Marshes along estuarine salinity gradients differ in vegetation composition, productivity, decomposition pathways, and sediment dynamics, and may exhibit different responses to sea-level rise. Coastal marshes persist by building vertically at rates at or exceeding regional sea-level rise. In...

  13. The history of Post-Miocene sea level change: Inferences from stratigraphic modeling of Enewetak Atoll

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Terrence M.

    1991-04-01

    The history of post-Miocene sea level change has been investigated using a quantitative, one-dimensional stratigraphic forward model. The stratigraphic model produces synthetic stratigraphies, including mineralogy and sediment age versus depth, in response to changes in sea level, subsidence, sedimentation, and diagenesis. Model outputs, using sea level curves inferred from passive margin sequence stratigraphy and deep-sea foraminiferal oxygen isotope stratigraphy, were compared to the post-Miocene stratigraphy of Enewetak Atoll. Modeling results support high-frequency (104 to 105 years) fluctuations of post-Miocene sea level. Post-Miocene sea level elevations significantly greater than modern sea level elevation are not easily reconciled with the stratigraphy of Enewetak Atoll. Model/data fit is maximized when a rapid subsidence rate for Enewetak Atoll is used. Alternatively, model/data fit may be maximized using a lower subsidence rate for Enewetak and having post-Miocene sea level elevations significantly lower than modem sea level elevation. Given the present state of knowledge, much work is still needed to accurately decipher the record of post-Miocene sea level change.

  14. Multivariate Regression Approach To Integrate Multiple Satellite And Tide Gauge Data For Real Time Sea Level Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2010-01-01

    The Sea Level Thematic Assembly Center in the EUFP7 MyOcean project aims at build a sea level service for multiple satellite sea level observations at a European level for GMES marine applications. It aims to improve the sea level related products to guarantee the sustainability and the quality o...... stations with satellite altimetry....

  15. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Cazenave, Anny; Larnicol, Gille

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition...... in the Arctic Ocean and in coastal areas for which preliminary results suggest that significant improvements can be achieved....

  16. GPRS based real-time reporting and internet accessible sea level gauge for monitoring storm surge and tsunami

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Dabholkar, N.; Mehra, P.; Gouveia, A.D.; Tengali, S.; VijayKumar, K.; Parab, A.

    graphical illustration of the predicted fair-weather sea level, the current sea level, and the residual sea level (i.e., measured minus predicted fair-weather sea level). Thus, a cost-effective and easily maintainable platform is realized for real...

  17. An inflection in the rate of early mid-Holocene eustatic sea-level rise: A new sea-level curve from Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, M. I.; Fifield, L. K.; Teh, T. S.; Chang, C. H.; Shirlaw, N.; Lambeck, K.

    2007-02-01

    This study presents a sea-level curve from ˜9500 to ˜6500 cal BP for the farfield location of Singapore, on the Sunda Shelf in southeast Asia. The curve is based on more than 50 radiocarbon dates from elevations of +1.43 m to -15.09 m representing sea-level index points in intertidal mangrove and shallow marine sediments deposited by sea-level rise accompanying deglaciation. The results indicate that mean sea level rose rapidly from around -17 m at 9500 cal BP to around -3 m by 8000 cal BP. After this time, the data suggest (but do not unequivocally prove) that the rate of sea-rise slowed for a period of 300-500 years centred on ˜7700 cal BP, shortly after the cessation of meltwater input to the oceans from the northern hemisphere. Renewed sea-level rise amounting to 3-5 m began around 7400 cal BP and was complete by 7000 cal BP. The existence of an inflection in the rate of sea-level rise, with a slow-down centred on ˜7700 cal BP, is broadly consistent with other available sea-level curves over this interval and is supported by evidence of stable shorelines and delta initiation elsewhere at this time, as well as evidence of comparatively rapid retreat of the West Antarctic ice sheet beginning around 7500 cal BP. 'Stepped' sea-level rise occurring shortly after 7500 cal BP and also earlier during deglaciation may have served to focus significant post-glacial episodes of human maritime/coastal dispersal, into comparatively narrow time intervals.

  18. Using environmental heterogeneity to plan for sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Elizabeth A; Nibbelink, Nathan P

    2017-02-27

    Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present-day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low

  19. Reassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dangendorf, Sönke; Marcos, Marta; Wöppelmann, Guy; Conrad, Clinton P; Frederikse, Thomas; Riva, Riccardo

    2017-06-06

    The rate at which global mean sea level (GMSL) rose during the 20th century is uncertain, with little consensus between various reconstructions that indicate rates of rise ranging from 1.3 to 2 mm⋅y(-1) Here we present a 20th-century GMSL reconstruction computed using an area-weighting technique for averaging tide gauge records that both incorporates up-to-date observations of vertical land motion (VLM) and corrections for local geoid changes resulting from ice melting and terrestrial freshwater storage and allows for the identification of possible differences compared with earlier attempts. Our reconstructed GMSL trend of 1.1 ± 0.3 mm⋅y(-1) (1σ) before 1990 falls below previous estimates, whereas our estimate of 3.1 ± 1.4 mm⋅y(-1) from 1993 to 2012 is consistent with independent estimates from satellite altimetry, leading to overall acceleration larger than previously suggested. This feature is geographically dominated by the Indian Ocean-Southern Pacific region, marking a transition from lower-than-average rates before 1990 toward unprecedented high rates in recent decades. We demonstrate that VLM corrections, area weighting, and our use of a common reference datum for tide gauges may explain the lower rates compared with earlier GMSL estimates in approximately equal proportion. The trends and multidecadal variability of our GMSL curve also compare well to the sum of individual contributions obtained from historical outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. This, in turn, increases our confidence in process-based projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

  20. River discharge contribution to sea-level rise in the Yangtze River Estuary, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Cuiping; Chen, Wei; Gu, Jie; Su, Tsung-Chow; Song, Hongling; Ma, Yue; Dong, Zhichao

    2017-02-01

    Sea level changes in the Yangtze River Estuary (YRE) as a result of river discharge are investigated based on the monthly averaged river discharge from 1950 to 2011 at the Datong station. Quantification of the sea level contribution is made by model computed results and the sea level rates reported by the China Sea Level Bulletin (CSLB). The coastal modeling tool, MIKE21, is used to establish a depth-averaged hydrodynamic model covering the YRE and Hangzhou Bay. The model is validated with the measured data. Multi-year monthly river discharges are statistically calculated based on the monthly river discharges at Datong station from 1950 to 2011. The four characteristic discharges (frequency of 75%, 50% and 25%, and multi-year monthly) and month-averaged river discharge from 1950 to 2011 are used to study the seasonal and long-term changes of sea level. The computed sea level at the Dajishan and Lvsi stations are used to study the multi-time scale structure of periodic variation in different time scale of river discharge series. The results reveal that (1) the sea level rises as the river discharge increases, and its amplification decreases from upstream to the offshore. (2) The sea level amplification on the south coast is greater than that on the north coast. When river discharge increases by 20,000 m3/s, the sea level will increase by 0.005-0.010 m in most of Hangzhou Bay. (3) The sea level at the Dajishan station, influenced by river discharge, increased 0.178 mm/y from 1980 to 2011. Correspondingly, the sea level rose at a rate of 2.6-3.0 mm/y during the same period. These values were provided by the CSLB. The increase in sea level (1980-2011) at the Dajishan station caused by river discharge is 6.8-8.9% of the total increase in sea level. (4) The 19-20 year dominant nodal cycle of sea level at the Dajishan and Lvsi stations is in accord with 18.6 year nodal cycle of main tidal constituents on Chinese coasts. It implies that the sea-level change period on the

  1. The complex reality of sea-level rise in an atoll nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.

    2012-12-01

    Sea-level rise famously poses an existential threat to island nations like Kiribati, Tuvalu and the Maldives. Yet as the global mean sea-level rises, the response of any one location at any given time will depend on the natural variability in regional sea-level and other impact of local human activities on coastal processes. As with climate warming, the state of an individual shoreline or the extent of flooding on a given day is not proof of a sea-level trend, nor is a global sea-level trend a good predictor of individual flooding or erosion events. Failure to consider the effect of natural variability and local human activity on coastal processes often leads to misattribution of flooding events and even some long-term shoreline changes to global sea level rise. Moreover, unverified attribution of individual events or changes to specific islets to sea level rise can inflame or invite scepticism of the strong scientific evidence for an accelerating increase in the global sea level due to the impacts of human activity on the climate system. This is particularly important in developing nations like Kiribati, which are depending on international financial support to adapt to rising sea levels. In this presentation, I use gauge data and examples from seven years of field work in Tarawa Atoll, the densely populated capital of Kiribati, to examine the complexity of local sea level and shoreline change in one of the world's most vulnerable countries. First, I discuss how the combination of El Nino-driven variability in sea-level and the astronomical tidal cycle leads to flooding and erosion events which can be mistaken for evidence of sea-level rise. Second, I show that human modification to shorelines has redirected sediment supply, leading, in some cases, to expansion of islets despite rising sea levels. Taken together, the analysis demonstrates the challenge of attributing particular coastal events to global mean sea-level rise and the impact on decision-making. The

  2. The sea-level fingerprints of ice-sheet collapse during interglacial periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, Carling; Mitrovica, Jerry X.; Gomez, Natalya; Creveling, Jessica R.; Austermann, Jacqueline; E. Kopp, Robert

    2014-03-01

    Studies of sea level during previous interglacials provide insight into the stability of polar ice sheets in the face of global climate change. Commonly, these studies correct ancient sea-level highstands for the contaminating effect of isostatic adjustment associated with past ice age cycles, and interpret the residuals as being equivalent to the peak eustatic sea level associated with excess melting, relative to present day, of ancient polar ice sheets. However, the collapse of polar ice sheets produces a distinct geometry, or fingerprint, of sea-level change, which must be accounted for to accurately infer peak eustatic sea level from site-specific residual highstands. To explore this issue, we compute fingerprints associated with the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and marine sectors of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to isolate regions that would have been subject to greater-than-eustatic sea-level change for all three cases. These fingerprints are more robust than those associated with modern melting events, when applied to infer eustatic sea level, because: (1) a significant collapse of polar ice sheets reduces the sensitivity of the computed fingerprints to uncertainties in the geometry of the melt regions; and (2) the sea-level signal associated with the collapse will dominate the signal from steric effects. We evaluate these fingerprints at a suite of sites where sea-level records from interglacial marine isotopes stages (MIS) 5e and 11 have been obtained. Using these results, we demonstrate that previously discrepant estimates of peak eustatic sea level during MIS5e based on sea-level markers in Australia and the Seychelles are brought into closer accord.

  3. A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011. Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6 with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%. Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  4. Sea level budget in the Arctic during the satellite altimetry era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carret, Alice; Cazenave, Anny; Meyssignac, Benoît; Prandi, Pierre; Ablain, Michael; Andersen, Ole; Blazquez, Alejandro

    2016-04-01

    Studying sea level variations in the Arctic region is challenging because of data scarcity. Here we present results of the sea level budget in the Arctic (up to 82°N) during the altimetry era. We first investigate closure of the sea level budget since 2002 using altimetry data from Envisat and Cryosat for estimating sea level, temperature and salinity data from the ORAP5 reanalysis and GRACE space gravimetry to estimate the steric and mass components. Two altimetry sea level data sets are considered (from DTU and CLS), based on Envisat waveforms retracking. Regional sea level trends seen in the altimetric map, in particular over the Beaufort Gyre and along the eastern coast of Greenland are of steric origin. However, in terms of regional average, the steric component contributes very little to the observed sea level trend, suggesting a dominant mass contribution in the Arctic region. This is confirmed by GRACE-based ocean mass time series that agree very well with the altimetry-based sea level time series. Direct estimate of the mass component is not possible prior to GRACE. Thus we estimated the mass contribution over the whole altimetry era from the difference between altimetry-based sea level and the ORAP5 steric component. Finally we compared altimetry-based coastal sea level with tide gauge records available along Norwegian, Greenland and Siberian coastlines and investigated whether the Arctic Oscillation that was the main driver of coastal sea level in the Arctic during the past decades still plays a dominant role or if other factors (e.g., of anthropogenic origin) become detectable.

  5. Sea-level Rise Impacts on Hudson River Marshes and their Vegetation Zonation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooks, A.; Nitsche, F. O.

    2016-12-01

    Rising sea levels may cause tidal marshes to be vulnerable to submergence and affect their ability to perform ecosystem services. However, tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems that can adapt to sea-level rise through inland migration and vertical growth. This study examines how four tidal marshes on the Hudson River (Piermont Marsh, Iona Island Marsh, Tivoli Bays, and Stockport Flats) would be affected by 0.5m, 1m, and 1.5m of sea-level rise by 2100. Using high-resolution LiDAR elevation data and vegetation data, we mapped sea-level rise projections in GIS, accounting for current accretion rates unique to each marsh. We calculated the submerged area of each marsh and analyzed how vegetation zonation in each marsh is expected to change due to rising sea levels. We found that the steep topography of the Hudson River banks limits the marshes' ability to migrate inland, emphasizing the role of elevation-building processes in adaptation. The marshes studied would experience minimal to no inundation under lower rates of sea-level rise such as 0.5m by 2100. At higher projected rates of sea-level rise (1.5m by 2100), Piermont Marsh and Tivoli Bays would experience significant inundation while Iona Island marsh and Stockport Flats would be less affected. Overall, Stockport Flats is projected to be the marsh most resilient to sea-level rise due to its higher accretion rate and its topography. Rising sea levels are also expected to change the areas of vegetation zones, with upland, high marsh, and mid marsh zones generally declining in area and with subtidal and low marsh vegetation zones generally expanding under high rates of sea-level rise. Understanding the impacts of sea-level rise on Hudson River marshes enables long-term planning to adapt to potential changes in marsh ecosystem services and could motivate and inform conservation efforts.

  6. Sea level and turbidity controls on mangrove soil surface elevation change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Catherine E.; Adame, Maria Fernanda; Bennion, Vicki; Hayes, Matthew; Reef, Ruth; Santini, Nadia; Cahoon, Donald R.

    2015-02-01

    Increases in sea level are a threat to seaward fringing mangrove forests if levels of inundation exceed the physiological tolerance of the trees; however, tidal wetlands can keep pace with sea level rise if soil surface elevations can increase at the same pace as sea level rise. Sediment accretion on the soil surface and belowground production of roots are proposed to increase with increasing sea level, enabling intertidal habitats to maintain their position relative to mean sea level, but there are few tests of these predictions in mangrove forests. Here we used variation in sea level and the availability of sediments caused by seasonal and inter-annual variation in the intensity of La Nina-El Nino to assess the effects of increasing sea level on surface elevation gains and contributing processes (accretion on the surface, subsidence and root growth) in mangrove forests. We found that soil surface elevation increased with mean sea level (which varied over 250 mm during the study) and with turbidity at sites where fine sediment in the water column is abundant. In contrast, where sediments were sandy, rates of surface elevation gain were high, but not significantly related to variation in turbidity, and were likely to be influenced by other factors that deliver sand to the mangrove forest. Root growth was not linked to soil surface elevation gains, although it was associated with reduced shallow subsidence, and therefore may contribute to the capacity of mangroves to keep pace with sea level rise. Our results indicate both surface (sedimentation) and subsurface (root growth) processes can influence mangrove capacity to keep pace with sea level rise within the same geographic location, and that current models of tidal marsh responses to sea level rise capture the major feature of the response of mangroves where fine, but not coarse, sediments are abundant.

  7. A 6,700 years sea-level record based on French Polynesian coral reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, Nadine; Camoin, Gilbert; Eisenhauer, Anton; Vella, Claude; Samankassou, Elias; Botella, Albéric; Milne, Glenn; Fietzke, Jan; Dussouillez, Philippe

    2015-04-01

    Sea-level change during the Mid- to Late Holocene has a similar amplitude to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the 21st century providing a unique opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change and to reveal an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia was reconstructed using coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets (far-field), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. Absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements is crucial for an accurate reconstruction of sea-level change. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the mean low water springs level. Growth pattern analysis allows the reconstruction of low-amplitude, high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than 1 m is recorded between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2.5 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

  8. The Interannual and Decadal Variability of the Sea Level in the Japan/East Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Tianshun; LIU Yuguang; ZONG Haibo; RONG Zengrui

    2009-01-01

    Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993-2007 period and the thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2005 obtained by using the global ocean temperature data sets recently published are used to investigate the interannual and decadal variability of the sea level in the Japan/East Sea (JES) and its response to El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the interannual variations of the sea level observed by altimeter and those of the thermosteric sea level obtained from reanalyzed data in the JES are closely related to ENSO. As a result, one important consequence is that the sea level trends are mainly caused by the thermal expansion in the JES. An 'enigma' is revealed that the correlation between the thermosteric sea level and ENSO during the PDO (Pacific Deeadal Oscillation) warm phase (post mid-1970s) is inconsistent with that during the cold phase (pre mid-1970s) in the JES. The thermosteric sea level trends and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest a strong negative correlation during the period 1977 1998, whereas there appears a relatively weak positive correlation during the period 1945-1976 in the JES. Based on the SODA (Simple Oceanographic Data Assimilation) datasets, possible mechanisms of the interannual and deeadai variability of the sea level in the JES are discussed. Comprehensive analysis reveals that the negative anomalies of SOl correspond to the positive anomalies of the southeast wind stress, the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES during the PDO warm phase. During the PDO cold phase, the negative anomalies of SOl correspond to the positive anomalies of the southwest wind stress, the negative anomalies of the net advective heat flux and the sea level in the JES.

  9. Modelling the increased frequency of extreme sea levels in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta due to sea level rise and other effects of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, S; Caesar, J; Wolf, J; Bricheno, L; Nicholls, R J; Saiful Islam, A K M; Haque, A; Pardaens, A; Lowe, J A

    2015-07-01

    Coastal flooding due to storm surge and high tides is a serious risk for inhabitants of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) delta, as much of the land is close to sea level. Climate change could lead to large areas of land being subject to increased flooding, salinization and ultimate abandonment in West Bengal, India, and Bangladesh. IPCC 5th assessment modelling of sea level rise and estimates of subsidence rates from the EU IMPACT2C project suggest that sea level in the GBM delta region may rise by 0.63 to 0.88 m by 2090, with some studies suggesting this could be up to 0.5 m higher if potential substantial melting of the West Antarctic ice sheet is included. These sea level rise scenarios lead to increased frequency of high water coastal events. Any effect of climate change on the frequency and severity of storms can also have an effect on extreme sea levels. A shelf-sea model of the Bay of Bengal has been used to investigate how the combined effect of sea level rise and changes in other environmental conditions under climate change may alter the frequency of extreme sea level events for the period 1971 to 2099. The model was forced using atmospheric and oceanic boundary conditions derived from climate model projections and the future scenario increase in sea level was applied at its ocean boundary. The model results show an increased likelihood of extreme sea level events through the 21st century, with the frequency of events increasing greatly in the second half of the century: water levels that occurred at decadal time intervals under present-day model conditions occurred in most years by the middle of the 21st century and 3-15 times per year by 2100. The heights of the most extreme events tend to increase more in the first half of the century than the second. The modelled scenarios provide a case study of how sea level rise and other effects of climate change may combine to produce a greatly increased threat to life and property in the GBM delta by the end

  10. Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A.; Leorri, Eduardo

    2016-12-01

    The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches.

  11. Reconstructing first-order changes in sea level during the Phanerozoic and Neoproterozoic using strontium isotopes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Meer, D.G.; van den Berg van Saparoea, A.P.H.; van Hinsbergen, D.J.J.; van de Weg, R.M.B.; Godderis, Y.; Le Hir, G.; Donnadieu, Y.

    2017-01-01

    The eustatic sea-level curves published in the seventies and eighties have supported scientific advances in the Earth Sciences and the emergence of sequence-stratigraphy as an important hydrocarbon exploration tool. However, validity of reconstructions of eustatic sea level based on sequence stratig

  12. Sea level changes induced by local winds on the west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mehra, P.; Tsimplis, M.N.; Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Shaw, A.G.P.; Somayajulu, Y.K.; Cipollini, P.

    The contribution of atmospheric pressure and local wind to sea level variability at Goa (West coast of India) for the period 2007–2008 is investigated. Sea level data from a tide gauge are compared with measured local surface meteorological as well...

  13. Mean Sea Level Changes near Weizhou Island from 1969 to 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Zhaoyong; LI Guangxue; TANG Chaolian; ZHOU Xiong

    2014-01-01

    Tidal data from Weizhou, Zhapo, and Shanwei stations between 1969 and 2010 and from five gauging stations in the western Pacific Ocean provided by PSMSL, and the global mean sea level data recorded between December 1992 and December 2010 by TOPEX and Jason satellites were compiled and analyzed. The results show that the perennial mean sea level near Weizhou Island is 211.7 cm (relative to the water gauge zero), and the relative mean sea level rising rate is 2.2 mm yr-1 from 1969 to 2010, which is consistent with the relative mean sea level rising rate recorded at other gauging stations in the western Pacific regions and with the global mean sea level rising rate. The absolute mean sea level rising rate at Weizhou Island is 3.0 mm yr-1 from 1993 to 2010, also conforming with the global mean sea level rising rate (3.1±0.4 mm yr-1) during the same time period. The highest annual tide level at Weizhou Island has a rising rate of 4.6 mm yr-1 and shows a 20-year quasi-periodic variation from 1966 to 2010. The primary cause of the mean sea level rising is global warming.

  14. New estimates of potential impacts of sea level rise and coastal floods in Poland (discussion paper)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paprotny, D.; Terefenko, P.

    2015-01-01

    Polish coastal zone is thought to be of the most exposed to sea level rise in Europe. With climate change expected to raise mean sea levels between 26 and 200 cm by the end of the century, and storms increasing in severity, accurate estimates of those phenomena are needed. Recent advances in quality

  15. The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to l

  16. Regional sea level variability from ice sheets, glaciers and land hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velicogna, I.; Hsu, C. W.

    2014-12-01

    Closing the sea level budget is a most important scientific and societal issue of climate change. Here, we report on the status of ice sheets and glaciers mass balance throughout the world and their contribution to sea level rise using time series of time-variable gravity from the NASA/DLR GRACE satellite mission for the time period 2003-2014. We also evaluate static regional sea level variations (or sea level fingerprints, SLF) from these observations of ice sheet and glacier loss, combined with observations of changes in global land hydrology also from GRACE, and water input from the atmosphere from re-analysis data. We evaluate the relative contribution of each component to regional sea level. We compare the cumulative SLF signal at global scale and at the scale of large ocean basins with satellite altimetry data corrected for the steric component from Argo floats. We find an excellent agreement between the two datasets. Although the regional SLF do not include sea level variations from ocean dynamics that re-distributes water mass around the world's oceans at the analyzed scales, we find that the SLF represent a large fraction of the trend and annual amplitude of the sea level signal. We also show an analysis of the contributions of regional sea level from mass changes in Greenland and Antarctica going back to the 1970s. This work was conducted at the University of California Irvine and at Caltech's Jet Propulsion Laboratory under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

  17. Evaluating uncertainties of future marine flooding occurrence as sea-level rises

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Rohmer, Jeremy; Cazenave, Anny; Idier, Déborah; van de Wal, Roderik|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/101899556; de Winter, Renske|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341476935; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Balouin, Yann; Vinchon, Charlotte; Oliveros, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    As sea-level rises, the frequency of coastal marine flooding events is changing. For accurate assessments, several other factors must be considered as well, such as the variability of sea-level rise and storm surge patterns. Here, a global sensitivity analysis is used to provide quantitative insight

  18. The Adriatic Sea: A Long-Standing Laboratory for Sea Level Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilibić, Ivica; Šepić, Jadranka; Pasarić, Mira; Orlić, Mirko

    2017-07-01

    The paper provides a comprehensive review of all aspects of Adriatic Sea level research covered by the literature. It discusses changes occurring over millennial timescales and documented by a variety of natural and man-made proxies and post-glacial rebound models; mean sea level changes occurring over centennial to annual timescales and measured by modern instruments; and daily and higher-frequency changes (with periods ranging from minutes to a day) that are contributing to sea level extremes and are relevant for present-day flooding of coastal areas. Special tribute is paid to the historic sea level studies that shaped modern sea level research in the Adriatic, followed by a discussion of existing in situ and remote sensing observing systems operating in the Adriatic area, operational forecasting systems for Adriatic storm surges, as well as warning systems for tsunamis and meteotsunamis. Projections and predictions of sea level and related hazards are also included in the review. Based on this review, open issues and research gaps in the Adriatic Sea level studies are identified, as well as the additional research efforts needed to fill the gaps. The Adriatic Sea, thus, remains a laboratory for coastal sea level studies for semi-enclosed, coastal and marginal seas in the world ocean.

  19. Sea-level change and projected future flooding along the Egyptian Mediterranean coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Shaltout

    2015-10-01

    The results indicate that DT can be used to study coastal and deep-water sea-level changes in the study area. The southern Levantine sub-basin sea level has recently risen by an average of 3.1 cm decade−1 and exhibits significant annual sea-level variation of −17 cm to 8 cm. The sea-level variation is significantly affected by several factors: sea-level variation west of the Gibraltar Strait, steric sea level, and sea-surface temperature. The GFDL simulations best describing the recent sea level over the study area, i.e., GFDL-CM3 and GFDL-ESM2M, are used to calculate the two-model ensemble mean (GFDL-2ENM, which indicates that Egypt's Mediterranean coast will experience substantial sea-level rise (SLR this century. The estimated uncertainty over the study area was 4–22 cm by 2100, with the emission assumptions dominating the three sources of uncertainty sources. Comparing the projected SLRs with digital elevation data indicates that Egypt's Mediterranean coast will only be safe from flooding by 2100 if effective adaptation methods are applied.

  20. Current state and future perspectives on coupled ice-sheet – sea-level modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, B.; Stocchi, P.; Whitehouse, P.L.; van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2017-01-01

    The interaction between ice-sheet growth and retreat and sea-level change has been an established fieldof research for many years. However, recent advances in numerical modelling have shed new light on theprecise interaction of marine ice sheets with the change in near-field sea level, and the

  1. Sea level and currents in the upper reaches of the Cochin estuarine system during October 2000

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.; Revichandran, C.; Asharaf, T.T.M.; Thottam, T.J.; Maheswaran, P.A.; Murukesh, N.

    of the Cochin estuarine system were found to be of a mixed, predominantly semi-diurnal form during the month. The non-tidal sea level at the same location, showed an overall drop of nearly 9 cm during the period. Spectral analysis of the non-tidal sea level...

  2. An Improved 20-Year Arctic Ocean Altimetric Sea Level Data Record

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheng, Yongcun; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per

    2015-01-01

    reprocessed ERS-1/2/Envisat satellite altimetry to develop an improved 20-year sea level dataset for the Arctic Ocean. We have developed both an along-track dataset and three-day gridded sea level anomaly (SLA) maps from September 1992 to April 2012. A major improvement in data coverage was gained...

  3. A fully coupled 3-D ice-sheet–sea-level model: algorithm and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Boer, B.; Stocchi, P.; van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2014-01-01

    Relative sea-level variations during the late Pleistocene can only be reconstructed with the knowledge of ice-sheet history. On the other hand, the knowledge of regional and global relative sea-level variations is necessary to learn about the changes in ice volume. Overcoming this problem of

  4. A fully coupled 3-D ice-sheet-sea-level model : Algorithm and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Boer, B.; Stocchi, P.; Van De Wal, R. S W

    2014-01-01

    Relative sea-level variations during the late Pleistocene can only be reconstructed with the knowledge of ice-sheet history. On the other hand, the knowledge of regional and global relative sea-level variations is necessary to learn about the changes in ice volume. Overcoming this problem of

  5. Future sea level rise constrained by observations and long-term commitment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengel, Matthias; Levermann, Anders; Frieler, Katja; Robinson, Alexander; Marzeion, Ben; Winkelmann, Ricarda

    2016-03-08

    Sea level has been steadily rising over the past century, predominantly due to anthropogenic climate change. The rate of sea level rise will keep increasing with continued global warming, and, even if temperatures are stabilized through the phasing out of greenhouse gas emissions, sea level is still expected to rise for centuries. This will affect coastal areas worldwide, and robust projections are needed to assess mitigation options and guide adaptation measures. Here we combine the equilibrium response of the main sea level rise contributions with their last century's observed contribution to constrain projections of future sea level rise. Our model is calibrated to a set of observations for each contribution, and the observational and climate uncertainties are combined to produce uncertainty ranges for 21st century sea level rise. We project anthropogenic sea level rise of 28-56 cm, 37-77 cm, and 57-131 cm in 2100 for the greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP26, RCP45, and RCP85, respectively. Our uncertainty ranges for total sea level rise overlap with the process-based estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The "constrained extrapolation" approach generalizes earlier global semiempirical models and may therefore lead to a better understanding of the discrepancies with process-based projections.

  6. Statistical analysis of global surface air temperature and sea level using cointegration methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Torben; Johansen, Søren; Thejll, Peter

    Global sea levels are rising which is widely understood as a consequence of thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and land-based ice caps. Due to physically-based models being unable to simulate observed sea level trends, semi-empirical models have been applied as an alternative for projecting...

  7. Long-term sea level change in the Malaysian seas from multi-mission altimetry data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Din, A.H.; Omar, K.M.; Naeije, M.C.; Ses, S.

    2012-01-01

    The long-term sea level change during 1993 to 2008 was investigated in the Malaysian seas from satellite altimetry data of the TOPEX, JASON-1, ERS-1, ERS-2 and ENVISAT missions. Sea level data retrieval and reduction were carried out using the radar altimeter database system (RADS). In RADS data pro

  8. Comparing tide gauge observations to regional patterns of sea-level change (1961–2003)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Wada, Y.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the global mean sea-level budget for the20th century can now be closed, the understanding of sealevelchange on a regional scale is still limited. In this studywe compare observations from tide gauges to regional patternsfrom various contributions to sea-level change to seehow much of the re

  9. A stalactite record of four relative sea-level highstands during the Middle Pleistocene Transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stocchi, P.; Antonioli, F.; Montagna, P.; Pepe, F.; Lo Presti, V.; Caruso, A.; Corradino, M.; Dardanelli, G.; Renda, P.; Frank, N.; Douville, E.; Thil, F.; de Boer, B.; Ruggieri, R.; Sciortino, R.; Pierre, C.

    2017-01-01

    Ice-sheet and sea-level fluctuations during the Early and Middle Pleistocene are as yet poorly understood. A stalactite from a karst cave in North West Sicily (Italy) provides the first evidence of four marine inundations that correspond to relative sea-level highstands at the time of the Middle

  10. Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Manceau, Jean-Charles; Rohmer, Jeremy

    2017-01-01

    Despite progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. Moreover, additional physical limits to future sea-level rise have been established, although approximately. However, many probability functions can comply with this imprecise knowledge. In this contribution, we provide a framework based on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory) to model the uncertainties in sea-level rise projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The results provide a concise representation of uncertainties in future sea-level rise and of their intrinsically imprecise nature, including a maximum bound of the total uncertainty. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections, which underestimate the expectancy of damages and adaptation needs compared to probabilistic laws. However, we show that the probability functions used so-far have only explored a rather conservative subset of sea-level projections compliant with the IPCC. As a consequence, coastal impact studies relying on these probabilistic sea-level projections are expected to underestimate the possibility of large damages and adaptation needs.

  11. Monitoring sea level and sea surface temperature trends from ERS satellites

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Knudsen, Per; Beckley, B.

    2002-01-01

    over this period. In the Indian Ocean and particularly the Pacific Ocean the trends in both sea level and temperature are still dominated by the large changes associated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation. In terms of contribution to the total global sea level change, the contribution of the central...

  12. Estimating absolute sea level variations by combining GNSS and Tide gauge data

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bos, M.S.; Fernandes, R.M.S; Vethamony, P.; Mehra, P.

    database, we have computed new sea level rise estimates for seven Indian tide gauges with realistic error bars. Thes e error bars should be combined with the uncertainty of the vertical land motion to obtain the error bar of the absolute sea level rise...

  13. The impact of selected sea level rise scenarios in the vicinity of Cochin harbour, India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.

    . Increases in shoreline recession and associated coastal flooding that would occur are predicted which indicated that a future sea level rise will bring about extensive land use changes in the region and in the coming decades sea level rise may become one...

  14. The land-ice contribution to 21st-century dynamic sea level rise

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howard, T.; Ridley, J.; Pardaens, A. K.; Hurkmans, R. T. W. L.; Payne, A. J.; Giesen, R. H.; Lowe, J. A.; Bamber, J. L.; Edwards, T. L.; Oerlemans, J.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence global mean sea level through a number of processes including (but not limited to) thermal expansion of the oceans and enhanced land ice melt. In addition to their contribution to global mean sea level change, these two processes (among others) lead to

  15. A new approach to projecting 21st century sea-level changes and extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I.D.; Rohling, E.J.; Slangen, A.

    2017-01-01

    Future increases in flooding potential around the world's coastlines from extreme sea level events is heavily dependent on projections of future global mean sea level (GMSL) rise. Yet, the two main approaches for projecting 21st century GMSL rise—i.e., process-based versus semi-empirical—give

  16. Retinal vessel diameters in relation to hematocrit variation during acclimatization of highlanders to sea level altitude

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Peter Kristian; Sander, Birgit; Zubieta-Calleja, Gustavo;

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE: To examine variations in retinal vessel diameters during acclimatization of native highlanders to normobaric normoxia at sea level. METHODS: Fifteen healthy residents of the greater La Paz region in Bolivia (3600 m above sea level) were examined thrice over a 72-day period, after having ...

  17. Spatial and temporal variability of late Holocene sea-level changes in the North Atlantic (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, A.; Kopp, R. E.; Horton, B.; Cahill, N.

    2013-12-01

    Proxy sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~2000 years capture multiple phases of climate and sea level behavior for model calibration, provide a pre-anthropogenic background against which to compare recent trends, and characterize patterns of natural spatial and temporal variability. In the western North Atlantic basin, salt-marsh sediment is an archive for reconstructing sea level with the decimeter and multi-decadal resolution necessary to characterize subtle changes. New and existing salt-marsh reconstructions from northern Florida, North Carolina, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Massachusetts provide a dataset for investigating spatial and temporal sea-level variability during the late Holocene. The reconstructions were developed using foraminifera, plants, and bulk sediment δ13C values as sea-level proxies. The age of sediment deposition was estimated from composite chronologies of radiocarbon and chronohorizons of regional pollution and land-use change that were combined in age depth models. We used a spatio-temporal Gaussian process model to identify and characterize persistent phases of sea level behavior during the late Holocene in the western North Atlantic Ocean. The results indicate an acceleration in global mean sea level from the early 19th century through the early 20th century. The rate of sea-level rise increased significantly in the late 19th century. The timing and magnitude of this rise varied among sites even after accounting for differences in glacio-isostatic adjustment. Sea level in North Carolina rose faster than in New Jersey sea-level during the Medieval Climate Optimum, while sea level in New Jersey rose faster during the Little Ice Age. Spatially variable sea-level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America can be caused by dynamic oceanographic processes and/or melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Our analysis suggests that plausible levels of meltwater input from Greenland would be inadequate to explain the reconstructed pattern

  18. Sea Level Change for Norway: Past and Present Observations and Projections to 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Matthew; Øie Nilsen, Jan Even; Ravndal, Oda; Breili, Kristian; Sande, Hilde; Kierulf, Halfdan; Steffen, Holger; Jansen, Eystein; Carson, Mark; Vestol, Olav

    2016-04-01

    Changes to mean sea level and/or sea level extremes (e.g., storm surges) will lead to changes in coastal impacts. These changes represent a changing exposure or risk to our society. Here we try to synthesize our understanding of past and present observed sea level changes for Norway, as well as providing sea level projections up until 2100. Our primary focus is changes to mean sea level but we also give updated return heights for each coastal municipality in Norway. We first analyse observed sea level changes from the Norwegian tide gauge network and from satellite altimetry. After the tide gauge data have been corrected for the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment, we show that 20th century sea level rise in Norwegian waters is broadly similar to the global average rise. Contributions to the observed sea level change and variability are discussed. We find that rate of sea level rise along the Norwegian coast is significantly higher for the period 1993-2014 than for the period 1960-2010. It is unclear, however, to what extent this higher rate represents natural variability rather than a sustained increase owing to global warming. Our regional sea level projections are based on findings from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) output. Average projected 21st century relative sea level change in Norway is -0.10-0.35 m (5 to 95% model ranges which is the likely range in AR5; P>66%) for RCP2.6, -0.05-0.45 m for RCP4.5, and 0.10-0.65 m for RCP8.5. The relative sea level projections can differ as much as 0.50 m from place to place. This pattern is governed by the vertical uplift rates. Quantifying the probability of levels above the likely range (i.e., the upper tail of the probability distribution) remains difficult because information is lacking. And of particular concern is that the ice sheet contribution might have a skewed distribution, which would

  19. Sea Level Rise Impacts on Precipitation-Induced Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzzanga, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Global sea level rise (SLR) is one of the most immediate impacts of climate change, and poses a significant threat to low-lying coastal communities worldwide. The metropolitan region of Hampton Roads in Southeastern Virginia is one such community, and one where knowledge surrounding SLR is rapidly accumulating. However, most of the research is focused exclusively on surface water processes despite the presence of a shallow groundwater table closely connected to them. SLR will continue to cause the groundwater table to increase in tidally influenced areas of Hampton Road, and thereby decrease storage capacity of the unsaturated zone (UZ). This study investigates how reduced unsaturated storage changes the rainfall-runoff relationship and the resulting areal-flood hazard spectrum. We choose a tidal watershed in Hampton Roads to conduct a conceptual yet realistic simulation of the hydrologic cycle using ten years of historical precipitation data with SLR scenarios from 0 m (current) to 2 m in 0.3048 m intervals. Groundwater infiltration from the land surface, recharge, and evapotranspiration are simulated using the Unsaturated-Zone Flow package with MODFLOW-NWT.Groundwater rise is simulated by increasing the stage of the tidal stream that drains the watershed. Precipitation and overland runoff are simulated using the surface water model SWMM. The two models are coupled to permit the exchange of boundary condition values at each time step. An ensemble approach is taken to test model sensitivity to parameters configurations and determine the contribution of SLR to runoff generation. The primary result of this study quantifies the relationship between SLR and runoff which enables decision makers to more effectively plan for, minimize risk of, and adapt to flooding hazards. This investigation also assesses how water content in the UZ changes in response to precipitation for different SLR scenarios. This result has widespread importance, such as decisions in crop choice or

  20. Sea-level variation/change and thermal contribution in the Bering Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZUO Juncheng; ZHANG Jianli; DU Ling; LI Peiliang; LI Lei

    2005-01-01

    The long-term sea-level trend in the Bering Sea is obtained by the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data, including the data of two tide gauges. The averaged sea-level in the Bering Sea rises at a rate of 2.47 mm/a from 1992 to 2002. The mean sea-level is falling in the most part of the Bering Sea, especially in its central basin, and it is rising in the northeastern part of the Bering Sea. During the 1998/99 change, the sea-level anomaly differences exhibit a significant sea-level anomaly fall in the deep basin of the Bering Sea,which is roughly in the same position where a prominent SST fall exists. The maximal fall of sea-level is about 10 cm in the southwestern part of the Bering Sea, and the maximal fall of about 2℃ in the SST also appeared in the same region as the sea level did.The steric sea-level change due to temperature variations is discussed. The results are compared with the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data at the different spatial scales. It is indicated that the seasonal amplitude of the steric height is about 35% of the observed TOPEX/Poseidon amplitude, which is much smaller than the 83% in the mid-latitudes area. The systematic difference between the TOPEX/Poseidon data with the range of about 7.5 cm and the thermal contribution with the range of about 2.5 cm is about 5 cm. This indicates that the thermal effect on the sea level is not as important as the case in the mid-latitudes area. In the Bering Sea, the phase of the steric height leads the observed sea level by about three months.

  1. Relative sea-level variability during the late Middle Pleistocene: New evidence from eastern England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, N. L. M.; Long, A. J.; Gehrels, W. R.; Saher, M. H.; Scaife, R. G.; Davies, H. J.; Penkman, K. E. H.; Bridgland, D. R.; Sparkes, A.; Smart, C. W.; Taylor, S.

    2017-10-01

    Unravelling patterns of relative sea-level change during previous interglacials enhances our understanding of ice sheet response to changing climate. Temperate-latitude estuarine environments have the potential to preserve continuous records of relative sea level from previous interglacial (warm) periods. This is important because, currently, we typically only have snapshots of sea-level highstands from low-latitude corals and raised palaeoshoreline indicators while the (continuous) deep-sea oxygen isotope record only provides indirect evidence of sea-level changes. Here, we focus on the Nar Valley in eastern England, in which is preserved evidence of a late middle-Pleistocene marine transgression more than 20 vertical metres in extent. By applying a model of coastal succession and sea-level tendencies, as used in Holocene sea-level studies, we assess the mode (abrupt versus gradual) of sea-level change recorded by the interglacial Nar Valley sequences. Compiled palaeo-stratigraphic evidence comprising foraminifera, pollen and amino acid racemization dating, suggests that the mode of sea-level change in the Nar Valley interglacial sequence was gradual, with potentially two phases of regional transgression and relative sea-level rise occurring at two separate times. The first phase occurred during the latter part of marine Oxygen Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 from ∼8 to 18 m OD; and, the second phase potentially occurred during early MIS 9 from ∼-3 to 3 m OD (with long-term tectonic uplift included in these estimates). We cannot conclusively preclude an alternative MIS 11 age for these lower sediments. The lack of indicators for rapid sea-level oscillations in the Nar Valley adds weight to an argument for steady melt of the ice sheets during both MIS 11 and 9.

  2. Expected extreme sea levels at Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp up until year 2100

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden)); Engqvist, Anders (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden)); Naeslund, Jens-Ove; Lindborg, Tobias (Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2009-01-15

    Literature data on factors that can affect the highest expected shoreline during the operational lifetime of a final repository up until ca 2100 AD have been compiled for Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp. The study takes into consideration eustasy (global sea level), isostasy (isostatic rebound) and their trends, as well as regional (North Sea) and local (Baltic Sea) annual extremes of today's sea levels and those in year 2100. The most uncertain factor of these is the future global sea level change. For this factor, three possible scenarios have been included from the literature, forming an rough uncertainty interval around a case with an 'intermediate' global sea level. To this end, the study thus makes use of information on global sea level change that has been published since the IPCC's (UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) most recent report (2007). The local cumulative impact on the shoreline of the eustatic and isostatic components for both the Forsmark and Laxemar/Simpevarp coastal areas is that the maximum sea level occurs at the end of the investigation period, by year 2100. The interaction of these estimates is discussed in terms of coastal oceanographic aspects and estimated return periods for local extreme sea level-impacting events, including estimated storm surge. Maximum sea levels in year 2100 based on the sea level rise estimates by Rahmstorf are + 254 cm for Forsmark and + 297 cm for Laxemar/Simpevarp, both of these levels with an uncertainty interval of about +- 70 cm. The numbers apply for the worst possible case in regard to future sea level rise, and for occasions of short duration during heavy storms. In this context it is important to note that the data on which these estimates are based are the subject of intense research, and that revisions are therefore to be expected

  3. Extreme sea-levels, coastal risks and climate changes: lost in translation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marone, Eduardo; Castro Carneiro, Juliane; Cintra, Márcio; Ribeiro, Andréa; Cardoso, Denis; Stellfeld, Carol

    2014-05-01

    Occurring commonly in Brazilian coastal (and continental) areas, floods are probably the most devastating natural hazards our local society faces nowadays. With the expected sea-level rise and tropical storms becoming stronger and more frequents, the scenarios of local impacts of sea-level rise and storm surges; causing loss of lives, environmental damages and socio-economic stress; need to be addressed and properly communicated. We present results related to the sea-level setups accordingly to IPCC's scenarios and the expected coastal floods in the Paraná State, Southern Brazil. The outcomes are displayed in scientific language accompanied by "translations" with the objective of showing the need of a different language approach to communicate with the players affected by coastal hazards. To create the "translation" of the "scientific" text we used the Up-Goer Five Text Editor, which allows writing texts using only the ten hundred most used English words. We allowed ourselves to use a maximum of five other words per box not present at this dictionary, not considering geographical names or units in the count, provided there were simple. That was necessary because words as sea, beach, sand, storm, etc., are not among the one thousand present at the Up-Goer, and they are simple enough anyhow. On the other hand, the not scientific public we targeted speaks Portuguese, not English, and we do not have an Up-Goer tool for that language. Anyhow, each Box was also produced in Portuguese, as much simple as possible, to disseminate our results to the local community. To illustrate the need of "translation", it is worthy to mention a real case of a troublesome misunderstanding caused by us, scientists, in our coastal society. Some years ago, one of our colleagues at the university, a much-respected scientist, informed through a press release that, on a given day, "we will experience the highest astronomical tide of the century". That statement (scientifically true and

  4. Determination and characterization of 20th century global sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chung-Yen

    In this study, we provide a determination of the 20th Century (1900--2002) global sea level rise, the associated error budgets, and the quantifications of the various geophysical sources of the observed sea level rise, using data and geophysical models. We analyzed significant geographical variations of the global sea level including those caused by the steric component (heat and salinity) in the ocean, and the self-gravitational signal as a result of ice sheets melting, including the effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) since the Pleistocene. In particular, relative sea level data from long-term (longest is 150 year records) and over 600 tide gauge sites globally from PSMSL and other sources, and geocentric sea level data from multiple satellite altimetry (1985--2005) have been used to determine and characterize 20th century global sea level rise. Altimeter and selected tide gauge sea level data have been used for the 20th century sea level determination, accounting for relative biases between the altimeters, effects of sea level corresponding to oceanic thermal expansion, vertical motions affecting tide gauge measurements, self gravitations, and barotropic ocean response. This study is also characterized by the roles of the polar ocean in the global sea level study and addressing the question whether there is a detectable sea level rise acceleration during the last decade. Vertical motions have been estimated by combining geocentric sea level measurements from satellite altimetry (TOPEX/POSEIDON) and long-term relative (crust-fixed) sea level records from global tide gauges using the Gauss-Markov (GM) model with stochastic constraints. The study provided a demonstration of improved vertical motion solutions in semi-enclosed seas and lakes, including Fennoscandia and the Great Lakes region, showing excellent agreement with independent GPS observed radial velocities, or with predictions from GIA models. In general, the estimated uncertainty of the observed

  5. GGOS Focus Area 3: Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöne, Tilo; Shum, Ck; Tamisiea, Mark; Woodworth, Philip

    2017-04-01

    Sea level and its change have been measured for more than a century. Especially for coastal nations, deltaic regions, and coastal-oriented industries, observations of tides, tidal extremes, storm surges, and sea level rise at the interannual or longer scales have substantial impacts on coastal vulnerability towards resilience and sustainability of world's coastal regions. To date, the observed global sea level rise is largely associated with climate related changes. To find the patterns and fingerprints of those changes, and to e.g., separate the land motion from sea level signals, different monitoring techniques have been developed. Some of them are local, e.g., tide gauges, while others are global, e.g., satellite altimetry. It is well known that sea level change and land vertical motion varies regionally, and both signals need to be measured in order to quantify relative sea level at the local scale. The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) and its services contribute in many ways to the monitoring of the sea level. These includes tide gauge observations, estimation of gravity changes, satellite altimetry, InSAR/Lidar, GNSS-control of tide gauges, providing ground truth sites for satellite altimetry, and importantly the maintenance of the International Reference Frame. Focus Area 3 (Understanding and Forecasting Sea-Level Rise and Variability) of GGOS establishes a platform and a forum for researchers and authorities dealing with estimating global and local sea level changes in a 10- to 30-year time span, and its project to the next century or beyond. It presents an excellent opportunity to emphasize the global, through to regional and local, importance of GGOS to a wide range of sea-level related science and practical applications. Focus Area 3 works trough demonstration projects to highlight the value of geodetic techniques to sea level science and applications. Contributions under a call for participation (http://www.ggos.org/Applications/theme3_SL

  6. How Shall We Tell Our People? The Art and Science of Communicating Sea-Level Rise to Coastal Audiences (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moser, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    Improved sea-level rise projections and translation into decision-relevant information (e.g., changed flood frequencies and elevations, increased rates in coastal erosion, salinity changes in coastal aquifers) are critical for coastal managers, planners, and local elected officials to feel more confident in bringing climate change and its related coastal impacts to the attention of their communities. Those who have done so or are considering doing so, however, are not just concerned with “getting the science right” or getting the most credible and relevant information. They immediately, and sometimes primarily, are concerned with the reactions of coastal residents, developers, and business interests to the prospects of potentially difficult and substantial changes in coastal land use, their property rights, and the potential loss of their homes and establishments. How to engage the public constructively in developing adaptation strategies is a largely unmet challenge for most coastal managers. Similarly, they have not been trained in how to effectively communicate an issue that is ripe with the potential for loss, danger, and social and legal conflict - more so than they already face. Better physical science on sea-level rise alone will not meet these needs. Meanwhile, the social sciences have only begun to study public attitudes toward local impacts and adaptation responses. This paper will summarize key insights available at this time and point to important research and education/training needs to better assist practitioners faced with developing and implementing coastal adaptation strategies.

  7. Coral-based Holocene sea level of Paraoir, western Luzon, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siringan, Fernando P.; Shen, Chuan-Chou; Lin, Ke; Abigania, Maria Isabel T.; Gong, Shou-Yeh

    2016-06-01

    Shallow-water corals are crucial natural archives for reconstructing deglacial sea-level changes. However, significant discrepancies exist between sea-level records from different places. Here we present recently acquired 230Th-dated coral ages between 10,256 ± 50 yr BP and 6654 ± 29 yr BP (before 1950 AD) from Paraoir, western Luzon, Philippines to document deglacial sea-level rise of the western Pacific. The results indicate that the Paraoir reef started growing 10.3 kyr BP from about 29 m below present sea level, and reached 8 m below the PSL at 7.2 kyr BP. The Paraoir sea-level records are consistent with those of northwestern Luzon and the western Australia coast; both of which are coral-based records in continental or island arc settings. But sea levels of Luzon are significantly higher than those of Tahiti, a basaltic island on oceanic crust. We propose that the differences in sea level between the Philippine and Tahiti result from spatial variations of glacial isostatic adjustment of the two sites.

  8. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  9. Bajocian-Bathonian (Middle Jurassic) sea-level changes in northeastern Egypt: Synthesis and further implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruban, Dmitry A.; Sallam, Emad S.

    2016-08-01

    The global eustatic developments can benefit significantly from properly acquired regional information. Summarizing the available interpretations of the relative sea-level changes from two areas in northeastern Egypt, namely Gebel Maghara and Khashm El-Galala, allows better understanding of the Middle Jurassic sea-level changes. It is established that the Bajocian-Bathonian relative sea-level changes in these areas were coherent. The magnitude of changes was lower in the Bajocian than in the Bathonian. Significant sea-level rises occurred at the Bajocian-Bathonian and middle-late Bathonian transitions, and there was a clear tendency toward sea-level rise throughout the studied time interval. This evidence favors one of the two alternative global eustatic reconstructions that implies "stable" position of the shoreline in the Bajocian and general tendency to eustatic rise throughout the Jurassic. The tectonic regime of northeastern Egypt in the Middle Jurassic provided for strong eustatic control of the relative sea-level changes. The possible influence of hotspot activity is questionable. Filling the accommodation space with materials derived from the eroded continent may explain some sea-level falls that are regionally documented.

  10. Lithostratigraphy, depositional history and sea level changes of the Cauvery Basin, southern India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muthuvairvasamy Ramkumar

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The sedimentary sequence exposed in the erstwhile Tiruchirapalli district hosts a more or less complete geological record of the Upper Cretaceous-Tertiary period. Systematic field mapping, collation of data on the micro-meso scale lithology, sedimentary structures, petrography, faunal assemblage and facies relationships of these rocks, in the light of modern stratigraphic concepts, helped to enumerate the lithostratigraphic setup and depositional history of the basin. Spatial and temporal variations of the lithologies and revised stratigraphic units are presented in this paper. Many high frequency sea level cycles (presumably fourth or higher order which stack up to form third order sea level cycles (six in number, which in turn form part of second order cycles (two in number, including seven eustatic sea level peaks, have been recorded in this basin. Trend analysis of sea level curves indicates a gradual increase of the sea level from Barremian to Coniacian and a gradual decrease from Coniacian to Danian. Such lasting sea level trends had their influence on the sedimentation pattern and facies association. It is inferred that depositional bathymetry was maintained at a shallow-moderate level, primarily influenced by a lack of major subsidence during the depositional history of this basin. The study also revealed a prevalent simple basin filling process and dominant control by sea level changes, rather than tectonic movements over the depositional regime.

  11. Impact of sea level rise on tidal range in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Serena Blyth; Li, Ming; Zhang, Fan

    2017-05-01

    Coastal inundation is affected not only by rising mean sea level but also by changing tides. A numerical model is developed to investigate how sea level rise and coastline changes may impact tides in two coastal-plain estuaries, Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay. Despite their different tidal characteristics, the two estuaries display similar responses to the sea level rise and shoreline management scenarios. When hypothetic sea walls are erected at the present coastline to prevent low-lying land from flooding, tidal range increases, with greater amplification in the upper part of the two estuaries. When low-lying land is allowed to become permanently inundated by higher sea level, however, tidal range in both estuaries decreases. Analyses of the tidal energy budget show that the increased dissipation over the shallow water and newly inundated areas compensates for the reduced dissipation in deep water, leading to smaller tidal range. The changes in the tidal range are not proportional to the changes in the mean sea level, indicating a nonlinear tidal response to sea level rise. The ratio of tidal range change to sea level rise varies between -0.05 and 0.1 in Chesapeake Bay and between -0.2 and 0.25 in Delaware Bay. The model results suggest a potential adaptation strategy that uses inundation over low-lying areas to reduce tidal range at up-estuary locations.

  12. Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef; Hu, Aixue; Hamlington, Benjamin; Kenigson, Jessica; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Thompson, Philip

    2016-10-01

    Sea level rise (SLR) can exert significant stress on highly populated coastal societies and low-lying island countries around the world. Because of this, there is huge societal demand for improved decadal predictions and future projections of SLR, particularly on a local scale along coastlines. Regionally, sea level variations can deviate considerably from the global mean due to various geophysical processes. These include changes of ocean circulations, which partially can be attributed to natural, internal modes of variability in the complex Earth's climate system. Anthropogenic influence may also contribute to regional sea level variations. Separating the effects of natural climate modes and anthropogenic forcing, however, remains a challenge and requires identification of the imprint of specific climate modes in observed sea level change patterns. In this paper, we review our current state of knowledge about spatial patterns of sea level variability associated with natural climate modes on interannual-to-multidecadal timescales, with particular focus on decadal-to-multidecadal variability. Relevant climate modes and our current state of understanding their associated sea level patterns and driving mechanisms are elaborated separately for the Pacific, the Indian, the Atlantic, and the Arctic and Southern Oceans. We also discuss the issues, challenges and future outlooks for understanding the regional sea level patterns associated with climate modes. Effects of these internal modes have to be taken into account in order to achieve more reliable near-term predictions and future projections of regional SLR.

  13. Uncertainties in Steric Sea Level Change Estimation During the Satellite Altimeter Era: Concepts and Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntosh, C. R.; Merchant, C. J.; von Schuckmann, K.

    2016-10-01

    This article presents a review of current practice in estimating steric sea level change, focussed on the treatment of uncertainty. Steric sea level change is the contribution to the change in sea level arising from the dependence of density on temperature and salinity. It is a significant component of sea level rise and a reflection of changing ocean heat content. However, tracking these steric changes still remains a significant challenge for the scientific community. We review the importance of understanding the uncertainty in estimates of steric sea level change. Relevant concepts of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated with the example of observational uncertainty propagation from a single profile of temperature and salinity measurements to steric height. We summarise and discuss the recent literature on methodologies and techniques used to estimate steric sea level in the context of the treatment of uncertainty. Our conclusions are that progress in quantifying steric sea level uncertainty will benefit from: greater clarity and transparency in published discussions of uncertainty, including exploitation of international standards for quantifying and expressing uncertainty in measurement; and the development of community "recipes" for quantifying the error covariances in observations and from sparse sampling and for estimating and propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales.

  14. Numerical simulation of saltwater intrusion in response to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langevin, C.D.; Dausman, A.M.

    2005-01-01

    A two dimensional numerical model of variable-density groundwater flow and dispersive solute transport was used to predict the extent, rate, and lag time of saltwater intrusion in response to various sea-level rise scenarios. Three simulations were performed with varying rates of sea-level rise. For the first simulation, sea-level rise was specified at a rate of 0.9 mm/yr, which is the slowest rate of sea-level rise estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). After 100 years, the 250 mg/L chloride isochlor moved inland by about 40 m, and required an additional 8 years for the system to reach equilibrium. For the next simulation, sea-level rise was specified at 4.8 mm/yr, which is the central value of the IPCC estimate. For this moderate rate of sea-level rise, the 250 mg/L isochlor moved inland by about 740 m after 100 years, and required an additional 10 years for the system to reach equilibrium. For the fastest rate of sea level rise estimated by IPCC (8.8 mm/yr), the 250 mg/L isochlor moved inland by about 1800 m after 100 years, and required more than 50 years to reach equilibrium. Copyright ASCE 2005.

  15. Statistical modeling and trend detection of extreme sea level records in the Pearl River Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen

    2017-03-01

    Sea level rise has become an important issue in global climate change studies. This study investigates trends in sea level records, particularly extreme records, in the Pearl River Estuary, using measurements from two tide gauge stations in Macau and Hong Kong. Extremes in the original sea level records (daily higher high water heights) and in tidal residuals with and without the 18.6-year nodal modulation are investigated separately. Thresholds for defining extreme sea levels are calibrated based on extreme value theory. Extreme events are then modeled by peaks-over-threshold models. The model applied to extremes in original sea level records does not include modeling of their durations, while a geometric distribution is added to model the duration of extremes in tidal residuals. Realistic modeling results are recommended in all stationary models. Parametric trends of extreme sea level records are then introduced to nonstationary models through a generalized linear model framework. The result shows that, in recent decades, since the 1960s, no significant trends can be found in any type of extreme at any station, which may be related to a reduction in the influence of tropical cyclones in the region. For the longer-term record since the 1920s at Macau, a regime shift of tidal amplitudes around the 1970s may partially explain the diverse trend of extremes in original sea level records and tidal residuals.

  16. Vertical ground motion and historical sea-level records in Dakar (Senegal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Raucoules, Daniel; Wöppelmann, Guy; Garcin, Manuel; Da Sylva, Sylvestre; Meyssignac, Benoit; Gravelle, Médéric; Lavigne, Franck

    2015-08-01

    With growing concerns regarding future impacts of sea-level in major coastal cities, the most accurate information is required regarding local sea-level changes with respect to the coast. Besides global and regional sea-level changes, local coastal vertical ground motions can substantially contribute to local changes in sea-level. In some cases, such ground motions can also limit the usefulness of tide-gauge records, which are a unique source of information to evaluate global sea-level changes before the altimetry era. Using satellite synthetic aperture radar interferometry, this study aims at characterizing vertical coastal ground motion in Dakar (Senegal), where a unique century-long record in Africa has been rediscovered. Given the limited number of available images, we use a stacking procedure to compute ground motion velocities in the line of sight over 1992-2010. Despite a complex geology and a rapid population growth and development, we show that the city as a whole is unaffected by differential ground motions larger than 1 mm year-1. Only the northern part of the harbor displays subsidence patterns after 2000, probably as a consequence of land reclamation works. However, these ground motions do not affect the historical tide gauge. Our results highlight the value of the historical sea-level records of Dakar, which cover a 100 year time-span in a tropical oceanic region of Africa, where little data are available for past sea-level reconstructions.

  17. Investigation of the seasonal spatial variability of the Caspian Sea level by satellite altimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safarov, Elnur; Mammadov, Ramiz; Cretaux, Jean-Francois; Arsen, Adalbert; Safarov, Said; Amrahov, Elvin

    2016-07-01

    Sea level fluctuations are among the most outstanding and debated issues of the Caspian Sea. Precipitation, underground water and river input are consistent parts of the inflow of the Caspian Sea water balance. The river input is also considered to be the main driver of the seasonal level changes of the Caspian Sea. Sufficiently large amount of this input is provided by the Volga. Although there is a good network of sea level stations covering the coastline of the sea, these facilities are not capable to reflect the sea level variations over the all surface. Meanwhile, the Caspian Sea is well observed by satellites Jason 1, Jason 2 and ENVISAT. Altimetric data taken from these satellites covers the surface of the sea much better than the data from the in-situ network stations. In this paper we investigate the spatial variability of the sea level that could provide more insight into the influence of river input (especially the Volga river), precipitation and other hydro-meteorological parameters on the Caspian Sea level.The altimetric data was averaged per every 10 square kilometers through all the tracks by means of the pre-prepared program made especially for this work. Also new maps of seasonal spatial variability of amplitude and phase of the annual signal of the Caspian Sea level for each investigated satellite were created by employing ARCGIS software. Moreover, these peaks of sea level amplitude and phase of annual signal results were comparatively analyzed with the corresponding river discharge of the Volga.

  18. Uncertainties in Steric Sea Level Change Estimation During the Satellite Altimeter Era: Concepts and Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntosh, C. R.; Merchant, C. J.; von Schuckmann, K.

    2017-01-01

    This article presents a review of current practice in estimating steric sea level change, focussed on the treatment of uncertainty. Steric sea level change is the contribution to the change in sea level arising from the dependence of density on temperature and salinity. It is a significant component of sea level rise and a reflection of changing ocean heat content. However, tracking these steric changes still remains a significant challenge for the scientific community. We review the importance of understanding the uncertainty in estimates of steric sea level change. Relevant concepts of uncertainty are discussed and illustrated with the example of observational uncertainty propagation from a single profile of temperature and salinity measurements to steric height. We summarise and discuss the recent literature on methodologies and techniques used to estimate steric sea level in the context of the treatment of uncertainty. Our conclusions are that progress in quantifying steric sea level uncertainty will benefit from: greater clarity and transparency in published discussions of uncertainty, including exploitation of international standards for quantifying and expressing uncertainty in measurement; and the development of community "recipes" for quantifying the error covariances in observations and from sparse sampling and for estimating and propagating uncertainty across spatio-temporal scales.

  19. Observing Sea Level Change and its Causes with Satellite Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boening, Carmen; Fu, Lee-Lueng; Landerer, Felix; Willis, Josh

    2016-07-01

    Sea level rise as a response to a changing climate is an imminent threat for coastal communities in the near future. Coastal zone management relies on most accurate predictions of sea level change over the coming decades for planning potential mitigation efforts. Hence, it is of high importance to accurately measure changes and understand physical processes behind them in great detail on a variety of time scales. Satellite observations of sea level height from altimetry have provided an unprecedented understanding of global changes and regional patterns for over two decades. With more and more missions providing now also observations of causes such as water mass changes due to ice melt and land hydrology as well as the ocean heat and salinity budget and local and regional wind patterns, we can now get a comprehensive understanding of the physical processes causing the short to long term changes in sea level. Here, we present an overview of sea level observations in combination with a suite of measurements looking at sea level contributions to provide insight into current and future challenges to understand the sea level budget and its impact on the accuracy of future projections.

  20. Decadal-scale sea level rise acceleration along the Florida Atlantic coast and its relations to sea level variability along the Florida Current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wdowinski, S.; Thompson, P. R.; Mitchum, G. T.; Park, J.

    2015-12-01

    The US Atlantic coast is one of the most vulnerable areas to sea level rise (SLR) due to its low elevation, large population concentrations, and economic importance. Further vulnerability arises from accelerating rates of SLR, which began in the early 2000's and caused a significant increase in flooding frequency in several coastal communities. Several studies have suggested that the accelerating SLR rates are due to the slowing down of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, in particular, a weakening of the Gulf Stream (GS). However, there are no direct observations that link the GS conditions and high sea levels along the coast. In this study we use satellite altimetry, tide gauge, and Florida Current (FC) cable data to explore possible relations between the recent SLR rate increase along the Florida Atlantic coast and various dynamical processes in the GS/FC system. Preliminary calculations indicate a good agreement between coastal sea level and nearshore altimetry series (R = 0.76-0.8) suggesting that SSH gradients from altimetry may be useful for assessing the dynamics associated with the coastal sea level change. Here we focus on spatio-temporal SSH changes along the two satellite passes located closest to the Florida Atlantic coast. Our results indicate an intriguing transition in SSH behavior around 2004-5. Prior to 2004, anomalous low coastal SSH events (strong FC) occurred every 3-5 years in correlation with warm ENSO events. After 2004, the strong relationship between ENSO and the gradient across the FC vanishes, while the mean sea level across the current increases. The observed SSH anomaly transition around 2004-5 correlates well with the initiation of accelerated rates of coastal SLR, suggesting that the decadal scale SLR acceleration has occurred during weak FC conditions. However, the forcing of this transition and the role of mean sea level variability, which is of comparable magnitude to variability in the gradient, remain unexplained.

  1. What dominates sea level at the coast: a case study for the Gulf of Guinea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melet, Angélique; Almar, Rafael; Meyssignac, Benoit

    2016-05-01

    Sea level variations and extreme events are a major threat for coastal zones. This threat is expected to worsen with time because low-lying coastal areas are expected to become more vulnerable to flooding and land loss as sea level rises in response to climate change. Sea level variations in the coastal ocean result from a combination of different processes that act at different spatial and temporal scales. In this study, the relative importance of processes causing coastal sea level variability at different time-scales is evaluated. Contributions from the altimetry-derived sea-level (including the sea level rise due to the ocean warming and land ice loss in response to climate change), dynamical atmospheric forcing induced sea level (surges), wave-induced run-up and set-up, and astronomical tides are estimated from observational datasets and reanalyses. As these processes impact the coast differently, evaluating their importance is essential for assessment of the local coastline vulnerability. A case study is developed in the Gulf of Guinea over the 1993-2012 period. The leading contributors to sea level variability off Cotonou differ depending on the time-scales considered. The trend is largely dominated by processes included in altimetric data and to a lesser extent by swell-waves run-up. The latter dominates interannual variations. Swell-waves run-up and tides dominate subannual variability. Extreme events are due to the conjunction of high tides and large swell run-up, exhibiting a clear seasonal cycle with more events in boreal summer and a trend mostly related to the trend in altimetric-derived sea-level.

  2. Global Projection of Coastal Exposure Associated with Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawatari, R.; Miyazaki, C.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

    2015-12-01

    Sea-level rise due to global warming becomes a great matter of concern for global coastal area. Additionally, it has reported in fifth report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) that deglaciation of Greenland ice sheet and Antarctic ice sheet would occur rapidly and enhance sea-level rise if temperature passes certain "Tipping point". In terms of projecting damage induced by sea-level rise globally, some previous studies focused on duration until mainly 2100. Furthermore long-term estimations on centuries to millennial climatic response of the ice sheets which are supposed to be triggered within this or next century would be also important to think about future climate and lifestyle in coastal . In this study, I estimated the long term sea-level which take into account the tipping points of Greenland ice sheet (1.4℃) as sum of 4 factors (thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap, Greenland ice sheet, Antarctic ice sheet). The sea-level follows 4 representative concentration pathways up to 3000 obtained through literature reviewing since there were limited available sea-level projections up to 3000. I also estimated a number of affected population lives in coastal area up to 3000 with using the estimated sea-level. The cost for damage, adaptation and mitigation would be also discussed. These estimations would be useful when decision-makers propose policies for construction of dikes and proposing mitigation plans for sustainable future. The result indicates there would be large and relatively rapid increases in both sea-level rise and coastal exposure if global mean temperature passes the tipping point of Greenland ice sheet. However the tipping points, melting rate and timescale of response are highly uncertain and still discussed among experts. Thus more precise and credible information is required for further accurate estimation of long-term sea-level rise and population exposure in the future.

  3. Spatial and temporal variability in the Holocene sea-level record of the South Australian coastline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belperio, A. P.; Harvey, N.; Bourman, R. P.

    2002-06-01

    Studies of past sea levels based on radiocarbon-dated field samples suffer variously from compilation of information from disparate locations and the imprecise nature of the dated indicators. Geographic segregation and systematic elimination of poor samples from time-depth data sets leads to improved interpretation of Holocene sea-level history. An example is presented from Southern Australia, where this is achieved through selection of higher-resolution palaeoenvironmental indicators, separation of transgressive from regressive populations, and geographic regionalisation of data. In Southern Australia, fossil sea-level indicators preserved in prograding coastal plain settings include seagrass, sandflat, mangrove, samphire and chenier ridge organo-sedimentary remains. These provide sea-level time-depth data points with a variety of elevational and dating errors. Preserved organic remains at the transition from Posidonia seagrass to intertidal sandflat environment, and from sandflat to Avicennia mangrove environment provide the most precise local data for tracing sea-level change. Time-depth plots of 233 dated sea-level indicators from South Australia generate a broad sea-level envelope tracing the Southern Australian transgression from 10,000 to ca. 6000 radiocarbon years BP, followed by a more or less consistent level to the present. Finer details of sea-level behaviour are only apparent after systematic selection, separation and regionalisation of the data. The data indicate a very rapid sea-level rise in the early Holocene, at about 16 mm/year, reaching present levels at 6400 years BP. This was followed by regionally variable regression and emergence of the land of 1-3 m, a process that continues to the present. The systematic increase from 1 to 3 m in the elevation of the 6400-year BP highstand with distance away from the shelf margin is consistent with a hydro-isostatic origin for the emergence as predicted by geophysical models.

  4. Contributions to the sea level seasonal cycle within the Gulf of Cadiz (Southwestern Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiz, Irene; Tejedor, Begoña; Gómez-Enri, Jesús; Aboitiz, Alazne; Villares, Pilar

    2016-07-01

    The spatial distribution of the sea level seasonal cycle within the Gulf of Cadiz (GoC) has been analysed using monthly maps of sea level anomalies from gridded multi-mission altimeter data, along with monthly means of sea level heights from three tide gauge stations. Moreover, the contribution to the sea level seasonal cycle of atmospheric pressure and wind and the steric effect were evaluated using maps of sea level residuals from the VANI2-ERA hindcast, and a combination of satellite Sea Surface Temperature maps with a very high resolution Temperature and Salinity climatology for the region. The atmospheric contribution accounted for 55-58% of the sea level variance offshore, with this percentage diminishing toward the coast, where the effect of wind stress might be underestimated, especially over regions of complex bathymetry. The steric contribution was addressed by considering local, open ocean, basin-wide and continental shelf steric effects. Results obtained highlighted the oceanographic complexity of the GoC at regional scales. In this sense, the open ocean steric contribution explained the largest percentage of atmospheric-corrected sea level variance at the offshore part of the basin (50-67%) and over the eastern shelf (42-48%), suggesting that the sea level seasonal cycle within the eastern shelf is connected to the large scale circulation system. West of Cape Santa Maria, both over the continental shelf and offshore, the best results were obtained with the local steric contribution, suggesting a decoupling of deep and shallow water sea level variations at the seasonal scale in that region.

  5. Relative sea level in the South Alligator River Region, North Australia, during the Holocene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodroffe, C.D.; Thom, B.G.; Chappell, J.; Wallensky, E.; Grindrod, J.; Head, J.

    Mangrove sediments are indicators of former sea level. Radiocarbon dating of fragments of mangrove wood from the sediments of the South Alligator tidal river, van Diemen Gulf, Northern Territory, indicates that sea level rose rapidly during the Postglacial Marine Transgression until about 6800 years B.P., when it was within 5 m of its present level. This is somewhat later than results from northeast and southeast Australia, which show the sea reached its present level before 6000 B.P. Further, we find no evidence for falling sea level in the last 5000 years, which has been reported from eastern and southwestern sites.

  6. The magnitude of a mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the Strait of Makassar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Thomas; Rovere, Alessio; Schöne, Tilo; Klicpera, André; Stocchi, Paolo; Lukman, Muhammad; Westphal, Hildegard

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge on the timing and magnitude of past sea-level changes is essential to understand modern and future sea-level variability. Holocene sea-level data from literature on the west coast of Sulawesi, central Indonesia, suggest that this region experienced two relative sea-level highstands over the last 6000 years, with magnitudes exceeding two meters. However, recent datasets from the Indo-Pacific region do not support high-magnitude sea-level oscillations during the Holocene in tectonically stable far-field locations. Here we present a new, high-precision, mid-Holocene sea-level dataset from the Spermonde Shelf off southwest Sulawesi. We surveyed 21 fossil microatolls on the reef flats of two coral islands (Pulau Panambungan and Pulau Barrang Lompo) and referred their elevations to local mean sea level and to the height of living coral. Radiometrically calibrated ages from emergent fossil microatolls on Pulau Panambungan indicate a relative sea-level highstand not exceeding 0.5 m above present at ca. 5600 cal. yr BP. The highstand is followed by a relatively rapid sea-level fall towards present sea level that was reached at around 4000 cal. yr BP. Fossil microatolls from nearby Pulau Barrang Lompo show the same trend, however with a coherent negative vertical offset of about 0.8 m compared to their equivalents on Pulau Panambungan. The largely consistent gradients of both trends (~- 0.14 mm yr- 1), the consistent elevation of living microatolls in the Spermonde, and a number of instructive geomorphic features indicate a localized, post-formational and probably recent drop of the fossil microatolls on the densely populated island Pulau Barrang Lompo. The relative sea-level trend inferred from Pulau Panambungan is well within the range of geophysical predictions based on ANICE-SELEN ice sheet model, which predict a highstand that is significantly lower than those predicted by other GIA models for this area. Although a complete interpretation of the Holocene sea-level

  7. Technical Note: Mean sea level variation in the Singapore Strait from long-term tide data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Tkalich

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Winds over the South China Sea (SCS are primarily responsible for the observed variability in sea level anomalies (SLAs in the Singapore Strait (SS. The present study focuses on remote forcing contributing to local mean sea level changes in the SS in seasonal and inter-annual scales, and relating the long term mean sea level variation to El Niño/ENSO. As Tanjong Pagar (TP tide station in the SS has nearly 23.5 yr (1984–2007 of time series data with less data gaps, this data was subject to harmonic and sea level analyses. The mean sea level changes suggest that the fluctuations are quasi-periodic. Rising and falling of sea level is noticed atleast 7 times in a period of 15 yr, with 3 distinct sharp falls (1984–1987, 1989–1992 and 1995–1996 and 4 sharp rises (1987–1988, 1992–1993, 1994–1995 and 1997–1999. These sea level falls are related to El Niño events. When we segregated the results into 2 time spans, we find that from 1984 to 1999 the sea level was on the rising trend in spite of sharp falls, and from 1999 to 2007 on gradual falling trend. More or less similar trend was observed by other researchers for the SCS with altimetry data. During the El Niño periods of 1987 and 1992, the inter-annual MSL variability is the highest, of the order of 7 cm. In one of the events, sea level recovered from a fall of 60 mm (in 1987 to a rise of 40 mm (in 1988. During 1992 to 1999, sea level was continuously on rising trend (from −50 mm to +60 mm, except in one year (1995–1996. The analysis shows a MSL rise rate of 15.7 mm yr−1, which is very closer to MSL in the SCS. The average rate of sea level rise around Singapore as shown by the Tanjong Pagar tidal station is 1.6 mm yr−1, and this matches with the global sea level rise.

  8. Acceleration of Sea Level Rise Over Malaysian Seas from Satellite Altimeter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamid, A. I. A.; Din, A. H. M.; Khalid, N. F.; Omar, K. M.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS). Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA) are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  9. ACCELERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE OVER MALAYSIAN SEAS FROM SATELLITE ALTIMETER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. A. Hamid

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise becomes our concern nowadays as a result of variously contribution of climate change that cause by the anthropogenic effects. Global sea levels have been rising through the past century and are projected to rise at an accelerated rate throughout the 21st century. Due to this change, sea level is now constantly rising and eventually will threaten many low-lying and unprotected coastal areas in many ways. This paper is proposing a significant effort to quantify the sea level trend over Malaysian seas based on the combination of multi-mission satellite altimeters over a period of 23 years. Eight altimeter missions are used to derive the absolute sea level from Radar Altimeter Database System (RADS. Data verification is then carried out to verify the satellite derived sea level rise data with tidal data. Eight selected tide gauge stations from Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak are chosen for this data verification. The pattern and correlation of both measurements of sea level anomalies (SLA are evaluated over the same period in each area in order to produce comparable results. Afterwards, the time series of the sea level trend is quantified using robust fit regression analysis. The findings clearly show that the absolute sea level trend is rising and varying over the Malaysian seas with the rate of sea level varies and gradually increase from east to west of Malaysia. Highly confident and correlation level of the 23 years measurement data with an astonishing root mean square difference permits the absolute sea level trend of the Malaysian seas has raised at the rate 3.14 ± 0.12 mm yr-1 to 4.81 ± 0.15 mm yr-1 for the chosen sub-areas, with an overall mean of 4.09 ± 0.12 mm yr-1. This study hopefully offers a beneficial sea level information to be applied in a wide range of related environmental and climatology issue such as flood and global warming.

  10. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 21 June 1877 to 31 December 2004 (NODC Accession 0002129)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) and the World Data Center-A for Oceanography, the...

  11. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 1 January 1901 to 31 May 1997 (NODC Accession 9700212)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) and the World Data Center-A for Oceanography, the...

  12. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 1 January 1901 to 31 December 2001 (NODC Accession 0000754)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) and the World Data Center-A for Oceanography, the...

  13. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 1 January 1901 to 1 May 1998 (NODC Accession 9800124)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) and the World Data Center-A for Oceanography, the...

  14. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 21 June 1877 to 31 December 2004 (NODC Accession 0002610)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) and the World Data Center-A for Oceanography, the...

  15. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 1 January 1901 to 1 October 2000 (NODC Accession 0000346)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) and the World Data Center-A for Oceanography, the...

  16. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 21 June 1877 to 31 December 2003 (NCEI Accession 0001235)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) and the World Data Center-A for Oceanography, the...

  17. Sea level measured by tide gauges from global oceans as part of the Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL) from 1 January 1905 to 30 April 1996 (NODC Accession 9600141)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Archive for Sea Level (JASL), a collaboration between the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC) and the World Data Center-A for Oceanography, the...

  18. Climate-related relative sea-level changes from Chesapeake Bay, U.S. Atlantic coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Timothy; Horton, Benjamin; Kemp, Andrew; Cahill, Niamh; Mann, Michael; Engelhart, Simon; Kopp, Robert; Brain, Matthew; Clear, Jennifer; Corbett, Reide; Nikitina, Daria; Garcia-Artola, Ane; Walker, Jennifer

    2017-04-01

    Proxy-based reconstructions of relative sea level (RSL) from the coastlines of the North Atlantic have revealed spatial and temporal variability in the rates of RSL rise during periods of known Late-Holocene climatic variability. Regional driving mechanisms for such variability include glacial isostatic adjustment, static-equilibrium of land-ice changes and/or ocean dynamic effects as well as more localized factors (e.g. sediment compaction and tidal range change). We present a 4000-year RSL reconstruction from salt-marsh sediments of the Chesapeake Bay using a foraminiferal-based transfer function and a composite chronology. A local contemporary training set of foraminifera was developed to calibrate fossil counterparts and provide estimates of paleo marsh elevation with vertical uncertainties of ±0.06m. A composite chronology combining 30 radiocarbon dates, pollen chronohorizons, regional pollution histories, and short-lived radionuclides was placed into a Bayesian age-depth framework yielding low temporal uncertainties averaging 40 years. A compression-only geotechnical model was applied to decompact the RSL record. We coupled the proxy reconstruction with direct observations from nearby tide gauge records before rates of RSL rise were quantified through application of an Errors-In-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process model. The RSL history for Chesapeake Bay shows 6 m of rise since 2000 BCE. Between 2000 BCE and 1300 BCE, rates of RSL increasing to 1.4 mm/yr precede a significant decrease to 0.8 mm/yr at 700 BCE. This minimum coincides with widespread climate cooling identified in multiple paleoclimate archives of the North Atlantic. An increase in the rate of RSL rise to 2.1 mm/yr at 200 CE similarly precedes a decrease in the rate of RSL rise at 1450 CE (1.3 mm/yr) that coincides with the Little Ice Age. Modern rates of RSL rise (3.6 mm/yr) are the fastest observed in the past 4000 years. The temporal length and decadal resolution of the RSL reconstruction

  19. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Green Cay National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Green...

  20. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Conscience Point NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  1. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Rhode Island NWR Complex

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Rhode...

  2. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Great Bay NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Great...

  3. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Great White Heron NWR : Final report

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Great...

  4. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Bayou Teche NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Bayou...

  5. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Supawna Meadows NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  6. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  7. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Caloosahatchee National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  8. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 6) to Cedar Keys NWR : Revised report

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Cedar...

  9. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Bon Secour National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Bon...

  10. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Eastern Neck NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  11. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Pinellas National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  12. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Shell Keys National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Shell...

  13. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.1) to Oyster Bay NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Oyster...

  14. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Mandalay National Wildlife Refuge

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  15. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Nomans Land Island NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on Nomans...

  16. Application of the Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM 5.0) to Crystal River NWR

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This Sea-Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) report presents a model for projecting the effects of sea-level rise on coastal marshes and related habitats on...

  17. Doctoral training in statistics, measurement, and methodology in psychology: replication and extension of Aiken, West, Sechrest, and Reno's (1990) survey of PhD programs in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, Leona S; West, Stephen G; Millsap, Roger E

    2008-01-01

    In a survey of all PhD programs in psychology in the United States and Canada, the authors documented the quantitative methodology curriculum (statistics, measurement, and research design) to examine the extent to which innovations in quantitative methodology have diffused into the training of PhDs in psychology. In all, 201 psychology PhD programs (86%) participated. This survey replicated and extended a previous survey (L. S. Aiken, S. G. West, L. B. Sechrest, & R. R. Reno, 1990), permitting examination of curriculum development. Most training supported laboratory and not field research. The median of 1.6 years of training in statistics and measurement was mainly devoted to the modally 1-year introductory statistics course, leaving little room for advanced study. Curricular enhancements were noted in statistics and to a minor degree in measurement. Additional coverage of both fundamental and innovative quantitative methodology is needed. The research design curriculum has largely stagnated, a cause for great concern. Elite programs showed no overall advantage in quantitative training. Forces that support curricular innovation are characterized. Human capital challenges to quantitative training, including recruiting and supporting young quantitative faculty, are discussed. Steps must be taken to bring innovations in quantitative methodology into the curriculum of PhD programs in psychology.

  18. Climate Prediction Center Historical Tahiti Sea Level Pressure (1882-1950)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains Tahiti sea level pressures and anomalies during 1882-1950. The anomalies are departures...

  19. Coastal Wetland Dynamics and Wildlife Populations: Modeling the Effects of Sea Level Rise and Landscape Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Assess the potential impacts of sea level rise on coastal ecosystems and related wildlife resources. Develop a Bayesian Belief network that projects the impact of...

  20. Analysis of the sea levels in Kiribati A Rising Sea of Misrepresentation Sinks Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Albert

    2016-03-01

    The sea levels of Kiribati have been stable over the last few decades, as elsewhere in the world. The Australian government funded Pacific Sea Level Monitoring (PSLM) project has adjusted sea level records to produce an unrealistic rising trend. Some information has been hidden or neglected, especially from sources of different management. The measured monthly average mean sea levels suffer from subsidence or manipulation resulting in a tilting from the about 0 (zero) mm/year of nearby tide gauges to 4 (four) mm/year over the same short time window. Real environmental problems are driven by the increasing local population leading to troubles including scarcity of water, localized sinking and localised erosion.

  1. Wind-Driven Sea-Level Variation Influences Dynamics of Salt Marsh Vegation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairns, David; Bartholdy, Jesper

    2011-01-01

    Long-term variation of mean sea level has been considered the primary exogenous factor of vegetation dynamics in salt marshes. In this study, we address the importance of short-term, wind-induced rise of the sea surface in such biogeographic changes. There was an unusual opportunity for examining...... field data on plant species frequency, sea-level variation, and sedimentation acquired from the Skallingen salt marsh in Denmark since the 1930s. The environmental and floristic history of Skallingen was summarized as (1) continuous sea-level rise with temporal variability (2.3–5.0 mm yr-1), (2......) continuous sedimentation with spatial variability (2.0–4.0 mm yr-1), (3) increased frequency of over-marsh flooding events, and (4) contemporary dominance of Halimione portulacoides, indicating little progressive succession toward a later phase. Conventionally, recent eustatic sea-level rise was believed...

  2. Sea level driven marsh expansion in a coupled model of marsh erosion and migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirwan, Matthew L.; Walters, David C.; Reay, William G.; Carr, Joel A.

    2016-05-01

    Coastal wetlands are among the most valuable ecosystems on Earth, where ecosystem services such as flood protection depend nonlinearly on wetland size and are threatened by sea level rise and coastal development. Here we propose a simple model of marsh migration into adjacent uplands and couple it with existing models of seaward edge erosion and vertical soil accretion to explore how ecosystem connectivity influences marsh size and response to sea level rise. We find that marsh loss is nearly inevitable where topographic and anthropogenic barriers limit migration. Where unconstrained by barriers, however, rates of marsh migration are much more sensitive to accelerated sea level rise than rates of edge erosion. This behavior suggests a counterintuitive, natural tendency for marsh expansion with sea level rise and emphasizes the disparity between coastal response to climate change with and without human intervention.

  3. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2016-11-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  4. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J. T.; Gardner, A. S.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Wiese, D. N.; Eicker, A.; Lo, M.-H.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level.

  5. Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bilskie, M. V; Hagen, S. C; Medeiros, S. C; Passeri, D. L

    2014-01-01

    Standard approaches to determining the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge flooding employ numerical models reflecting present conditions with modified sea states for a given SLR scenario...

  6. Real-time reporting and internet-accessible cellular based coastal sea level gauge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Mehra, P.; Dabholkar, N.; Parab, A.; Gouveia, A.D.; Tengali, S.

    in communication infrastructure will further improve our capability in coastal sea-level data collection in real time and its utilization for running predictive models as well as warning and alert purposes. The architecture of the system described herein...

  7. Real-time reporting and internet-accessible coastal sea-level gauge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Desai, R.G.P.; Joseph, A.; Agarvadekar, Y.; Mehra, P.; Dabholkar, N.; Parab, A.; Gouveia, A.D.; Tengali, S.

    infrastructure will further improve our capability in coastal sea- level data collection in real time and its utilisation for running predictive models as well as warning and alert purposes. The architecture of the system described herein, and operational since...

  8. Sea-level-rise trends off the Indian coasts during the last two decades

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Unnikrishnan, A; Nidheesh, A; Lengaigne, M.

    century. This communication calls for an improved understanding of the mechanisms behind this accelerated sea-level-rise recorded over the past two decades, that could either be a direct response to global warming or a result from an aliasing...

  9. Examining effects of sea level rise and marsh crabs on Spartina patens using mesocosms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coastal salt marshes provide essential ecosystem services but face increasing threats from habitat loss, eutrophication, changing precipitation patterns, and accelerating rates of sea level rise (SLR). Recent studies have suggested that herbivory and burrowing by native salt mars...

  10. Observed coherency in the seasonal sea level fluctuations along the coastline of the Indian subcontinent

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.; DineshKumar, P.K.; Ravichandran, C.

    of the seasonal data on pressure corrected sea level. This analysis revealed that the first three Principal Components (PCs) are significant, with the percentage variance accounted by them being 62, 25 and 10%. Bhavnagar and Thangacchimadam showed high loadings...

  11. Climate Prediction Center Historical Darwin Sea Level Pressure (1882-1950)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This is one of the CPC?s Monthly Atmospheric and SST Indices. It contains Darwin sea level pressures and anomalies during 1882-1950. The anomalies are departures...

  12. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  13. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  14. Bayesian methods for model uncertainty analysis with application to future sea level rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patwardhan, A.; Small, M.J.

    1992-01-01

    In no other area is the need for effective analysis of uncertainty more evident than in the problem of evaluating the consequences of increasing atmospheric concentrations of radiatively active gases. The major consequences of concern is global warming, with related environmental effects that include changes in local patterns of precipitation, soil moisture, forest and agricultural productivity, and a potential increase in global mean sea level. In order to identify an optimum set of responses to sea level change, a full characterization of the uncertainties associated with the predictions of future sea level rise is essential. The paper addresses the use of data for identifying and characterizing uncertainties in model parameters and predictions. The Bayesian Monte Carlo method is formally presented and elaborated, and applied to the analysis of the uncertainty in a predictive model for global mean sea level change.

  15. NODC Standard Product: Sea level data (TOGA and PSMSL) through August 1994 (NODC Accession 0095192)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The data on this CD-ROM are provided in two main directories. One directory contains Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA) project sea level data, file formats,...

  16. Sea level rise, drought and the decline of Spartina patens in New England marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Already heavily impacted by coastal development, estuarine vegetated habitats (seagrasses, salt marshes, and mangroves) are increasingly affected by climate change via accelerated sea level rise, changes in the frequency and intensity of precipitation and storms, and warmer ocean...

  17. PACIFIC - Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: U.S. Pacific Coast

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The goal of this project is to quantify, at the National scale, the relative susceptibility of the Nation's coast to sea-level rise through the use of a coastal...

  18. Barriers to and opportunities for landward migration of coastal wetlands with sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enwright, Nicholas M.; Griffith, Kereen T.; Osland, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    In the 21st century, accelerated sea-level rise and continued coastal development are expected to greatly alter coastal landscapes across the globe. Historically, many coastal ecosystems have responded to sea-level fluctuations via horizontal and vertical movement on the landscape. However, anthropogenic activities, including urbanization and the construction of flood-prevention infrastructure, can produce barriers that impede ecosystem migration. Here we show where tidal saline wetlands have the potential to migrate landward along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast, one of the most sea-level rise sensitive and wetland-rich regions of the world. Our findings can be used to identify migration corridors and develop sea-level rise adaptation strategies to help ensure the continued availability of wetland-associated ecosystem goods and services.

  19. PACIFIC - Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: U.S. Pacific Coast

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The goal of this project is to quantify, at the National scale, the relative susceptibility of the Nation's coast to sea-level rise through the use of a coastal...

  20. GULF - Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise: U.S. Gulf Coast

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — The goal of this project is to quantify, at the National scale, the relative susceptibility of the Nation's coast to sea-level rise through the use of a coastal...

  1. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and Its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2016-01-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  2. Recent Changes in Land Water Storage and its Contribution to Sea Level Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Yoshihide; Reager, John T.; Chao, Benjamin F.; Wang, Jida; Lo, Min-Hui; Song, Chunqiao; Li, Yuwen; Gardner, Alex S.

    2017-01-01

    Sea level rise is generally attributed to increased ocean heat content and increased rates glacier and ice melt. However, human transformations of Earth's surface have impacted water exchange between land, atmosphere, and ocean, ultimately affecting global sea level variations. Impoundment of water in reservoirs and artificial lakes has reduced the outflow of water to the sea, while river runoff has increased due to groundwater mining, wetland and endorheic lake storage losses, and deforestation. In addition, climate-driven changes in land water stores can have a large impact on global sea level variations over decadal timescales. Here, we review each component of negative and positive land water contribution separately in order to highlight and understand recent changes in land water contribution to sea level variations.

  3. Geomorphic evidence for mid Holocene higher sea level from southeastern Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzer, A. D.; Sloss, C. R.; Jones, B. G.; Bristow, C. S.

    2009-04-01

    An elevated sheltered pocket beach sequence at Batemans Bay, NSW, Australia, composed of shelly fine- to medium-grained sand provides geomorphological evidence of higher than present sea level during the mid-Holocene. The sequence is composed of a sand facies with variable amounts of shell and contains a number of well-defined dipping reflectors identified in GPR profiles indicative of a small prograded beach system. This beach succession is overlain by storm or tsunami deposits. This beach deposit probably accumulated between 2500-5000 years ago under relatively high energy conditions within a more open immature estuary during a period of higher sea level. Both deposits have been preserved by a low energy mangrove facies that accumulated after the recent fall in sea level cut off ocean wave activity from the area. The beach sequence adds complementary geomorphic evidence for the mid Holocene sea level highstand previously identified along other parts of the southeast Australian coast.

  4. TOGA Sea Level Center: Data from the Indian Ocean (NODC Accession 9000251)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This accession contains a scan of the analog publication 'TOGA Sea Level Center: Data from the Indian Ocean'. Abstract from p. iii of the publication: The TOGA Sea...

  5. Geomorphic expression of late Quaternary sea level changes along the southern Saurashtra coast, western India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Nilesh Bhatt; Uday Bhonde

    2006-08-01

    Geomorphic expression of land-sea interaction is preserved in the form of abandoned cliffs, marine terraces,shore platforms and marine notches along the southern Saurashtra coast. These features have been used to ascertain the magnitude of sea level changes during late Quaternary.Notch morphology and associated biological encrustation have been used to estimate the magnitude and duration of palaeo-sea strands.Marine notches and other erosive features occurring between 12 and 15 m above the present Biological Mean Sea Level (BMSL) are attributed to the last interglacial corresponding to the Marine Isotopic Stage 5 (MIS-5). However,6 to 9 m upliftment of the coastal fringe is attributed to this sea level.The second major high sea strand was identified during the mid-Holocene when the sea rose 2 m above the present level.Notches corresponding to this high sea level are recorded 4 to 5 m above the present BMSL.

  6. Is sea level rise accelerating in the Chesapeake Bay? A demonstration of a novel new approach for analyzing sea level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezer, Tal; Corlett, William Bryce

    2012-10-01

    Sea level data from the Chesapeake Bay are used to test a novel new analysis method for studies of sea level rise (SLR). The method, based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Hilbert-Huang Transformation, separates the sea level trend from other oscillating modes and reveals how the mean sea level changes over time. Bootstrap calculations test the robustness of the method and provide confidence levels. The analysis shows that rates of SLR have increased from ˜1-3 mm y-1 in the 1930s to ˜4-10 mm y-1 in 2011, an acceleration of ˜0.05-0.10 mm y-2 that is larger than most previous studies, but comparable to recent findings by Sallenger and collaborators. While land subsidence increases SLR rates in the bay relative to global SLR, the acceleration results support Sallenger et al.'s proposition that an additional contribution to SLR from climatic changes in ocean circulation is affecting the region.

  7. Sea level and vertical motion of continents from dynamic earth models since the Late Cretaceous

    OpenAIRE

    Spasojevic, Sonja; Gurnis, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic earth models are used to better understand the impact of mantle dynamics on the vertical motion of continents and regional and global sea level change since the Late Cretaceous. A hybrid approach combines inverse and forward models of mantle convection and accounts for the principal contributors to long-term sea level change: the evolving distribution of ocean floor age, dynamic topography in oceanic and continental regions, and the geoid. We infer the relative importance of dynamic v...

  8. Sea Level Change: Is the Volume of the Ocean Changing or Is It Redistributing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchum, G. T.; Thompson, P. R.; Merrifield, M. A.

    2012-12-01

    Global sea level change is due to changes in the ocean volume, which are in turn primarily due to changes in the globally averaged density of the ocean and ice melt from the land. Regional to local sea level changes reflect global changes as well as redistributions of volume due to ocean dynamics and land motions. Determining whether global sea level change is accelerating requires that we disentangle these regional and local signals from the true global volume changes. Given the current length of our time series determining acceleration is problematic, largely because of substantial spatial and temporal changes in the global sea level field due to ocean-atmosphere dynamics. We will review our work showing that global sea level reconstructions are sensitive to the weightings applied to the tide gauge data. We will also review basin-scale changes in sea level in the North Atlantic and the Tropical Pacific that are clearly wind-driven. These are important for two reasons. First, these signals mask the (presently) small global signal, and second, these signals present a statistical challenge for determining the acceleration of the global volume change rate. The obvious question is how well we can expect to estimate the sea level rise acceleration rate given the observed red noise character, in time and space, of the volume redistribution signals. We will end the presentation with various simulations of our ability to determine global sea level change acceleration that take into account reasonable estimates of decadal redistributions of ocean volume. The net result is that most recent attempts to determine acceleration are seriously flawed. On the positive side, we will provide estimates of how long it might take to make more reliable estimates.

  9. Latest Developments from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Andrew; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Gordon, Kathy; Hibbert, Angela; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rickards, Lesley; Williams, Simon; Woodworth, Philip

    2017-04-01

    The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data, and is based in Liverpool at the National Oceanography Centre. The PSMSL operates under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU), is a regular member of the ICSU World Data System and is associated with the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The PSMSL continues to work closely with other members of the sea level community through the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently, the PSMSL data bank holds over 68,500 station-years of monthly and annual mean sea level data from over 2300 tide gauge stations. Data from each site are quality controlled and, wherever possible, reduced to a common datum, whose stability is monitored through a network of geodetic benchmarks. PSMSL also distributes a data bank of measurements taken from in-situ ocean bottom pressure recorders. Here we will present an overview of the PSMSL dataset, how it can be obtained, where it has been used, and how we recommend it should be cited. We will describe how the global tide gauge network has evolved over the past 200 years and examine its current state. We will also discuss our ongoing work with SONEL to exchange information about geodetic links between tide gauges and GNSS receivers, allowing us to link relative sea level measured at tide gauges to the reference ellipsoid, and to provide an estimate of the rate of vertical land movement.

  10. Sea-level changes and crustal movements recorded along the east Adriatic coast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orlic, M.; Pasaric, M. [Zagreb Univ., Zagreb (Croatia). Andrija Mohorovicic Geophysical institute

    2000-08-01

    Sea-level changes in the Adriatic are investigated on the basis of monthly mean sea levels registered at Croatian tide-gauge stations Rovinj, Bakar, Split and Dubrovnik since the beginning of the 1950s. A comparison of sea-level anomalies with air-pressure anomalies recorded simultaneously at Pula, Rijeka, Split and Dubrovnik reveals a statistically significant relationship: a 1 mbar air-pressure change corresponds to a 1.8-2.0 cm sea-level change. The relationship enables sea-level anomalies to be corrected and, consequently, long term sea-level changes to be determined more reliably. A 20-year cycle observed in both the uncorrected and corrected anomalies is interpreted in terms of the global bidecadal signal and its regional manifestation in the Mediterranean. In order to minimize the effects of the bidecadal cycle, trends are analysed over a 30-year sliding window. The procedure reveals that the trends very along the Croatian coast from ca. 1mm/a in the North to zero to the South, with deceleration being visible at all the stations during the early 1970s. The finding is interpreted in terms of (a) global sea-level rise; (b) regional multidecadal sea-level variability, and (c) local tectonic movements. Multidecadal atmosphere above Europe and/or to the anthropogenic changes of the Mediterranean freshwater budget. Tectonic movements bring about a rising of the middle and south Adriatic budget. Tectonic movements bring about a rising of the middle and south Adriatic coast relatively to the north Adriatic coast at a 1 mm/a speed, with the Bakar area being characterized by anomalous crustal motions.

  11. Assessment of Hammocks (Petenes) Resilience to Sea Level Rise Due to Climate Change in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Hernández-Montilla, Mariana C.; Martínez-Morales, Miguel Angel; Posada Vanegas, Gregorio; De Jong, Bernardus H. J.

    2016-01-01

    There is a pressing need to assess resilience of coastal ecosystems against sea level rise. To develop appropriate response strategies against future climate disturbances, it is important to estimate the magnitude of disturbances that these ecosystems can absorb and to better understand their underlying processes. Hammocks (petenes) coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to sea level rise linked to climate change; their vulnerability is mainly due to its close relation with the sea through ...

  12. Atmospheric forcing of decadal Baltic Sea level variability in the last 200 years. A statistical analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huenicke, B. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2008-11-06

    This study aims at the estimation of the impact of different atmospheric factors on the past sealevel variations (up to 200 years) in the Baltic Sea by statistically analysing the relationship between Baltic Sea level records and observational and proxy-based reconstructed climatic data sets. The focus lies on the identification and possible quantification of the contribution of sealevel pressure (wind), air-temperature and precipitation to the low-frequency (decadal and multi-decadal) variability of Baltic Sea level. It is known that the wind forcing is the main factor explaining average Baltic Sea level variability at inter-annual to decadal timescales, especially in wintertime. In this thesis it is statistically estimated to what extent other regional climate factors contribute to the spatially heterogeneous Baltic Sea level variations around the isostatic trend at multi-decadal timescales. Although the statistical analysis cannot be completely conclusive, as the potential climate drivers are all statistically interrelated to some degree, the results indicate that precipitation should be taken into account as an explanatory variable for sea-level variations. On the one hand it has been detected that the amplitude of the annual cycle of Baltic Sea level has increased throughout the 20th century and precipitation seems to be the only factor among those analysed (wind through SLP field, barometric effect, temperature and precipitation) that can account for this evolution. On the other hand, precipitation increases the ability to hindcast inter-annual variations of sea level in some regions and seasons, especially in the Southern Baltic in summertime. The mechanism by which precipitation exerts its influence on Baltic Sea level is not ascertained in this statistical analysis due to the lack of long salinity time series. This result, however, represents a working hypothesis that can be confirmed or disproved by long simulations of the Baltic Sea system - ocean

  13. Effects of Sea Level-Rise on Carbon Accretion in Coastal Wetlands (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, J. T.

    2010-12-01

    Long-term storage of organic carbon in sediment is one of the key functions of coastal wetlands. Owing to the rise of sea level, a fraction of their primary production is buried annually. However, the productivity of tidelands and, hence, carbon accretion depend on their relative elevation within the tidal frame. It has been shown empirically that there is an optimum relative elevation for maximum primary production. The equilibrium elevation is a function of the rate of sea-level rise. Hence, productivity and carbon accretion are also affected by the rate of sea-level rise. Mathematically it can be shown that tidelands maintain their elevation relative to the ocean through feedbacks among primary production, flooding, and sedimentation. At the low end of the sea-level-rise spectrum, a rising sea increases the flooding of marshes, decreasing sediment salinity, stimulating primary production and increasing sedimentation. At the high end, marshes cannot keep pace with sea level and convert to tidal mud flats or open water. Consequently, the long-term storage of carbon by tidelands will depend on the future trajectory of sea-level. In general, cumulative carbon accretion of existing marshes decreases as the forecasted rise in sea level increases. Other important variables include tide range and concentration of suspended sediments. Carbon accretion will be lower in microtidal than macrotidal estuaries, particularly at high rates of sea-level rise. Sensitivity of carbon accretion to tide range decreases as the concentration of suspended sediments increases. These results indicate that future carbon accretion by coastal wetlands will not be uniform in space or time.

  14. Potential effects of sea-level rise on coastal wetlands in southeastern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Patty; Clough, Jonathan; Polaczyk, Amy; Couvillion, Brady R.; Nunley, Brad

    2013-01-01

    Coastal Louisiana wetlands contain about 37% of the estuarine herbaceous marshes in the conterminous United States. The long-term stability of coastal wetlands is often a function of a wetland's ability to maintain elevation equilibrium with mean sea level through processes such as primary production and sediment accretion. However, Louisiana has sustained more coastal wetland loss than all other states in the continental United States combined due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic factors, including sea-level rise. This study investigates the potential impact of current and accelerating sea-level rise rates on key coastal wetland habitats in southeastern Louisiana using the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Model calibration was conducted using a 1956–2007 observation period and hindcasting results predicted 35% versus observed 39% total marsh loss. Multiple sea-level-rise scenarios were then simulated for the period of 2007–2100. Results indicate a range of potential wetland losses by 2100, from an additional 2,188.97 km2 (218,897 ha, 9% of the 2007 wetland area) under the lowest sea-level-rise scenario (0.34 m), to a potential loss of 5,875.27 km2 (587,527 ha, 24% of the 2007 wetland area) in the highest sea-level-rise scenario (1.9 m). Model results suggest that one area of particular concern is the potential vulnerability of the region's baldcypress-water tupelo (Taxodium distichum-Nyssa aquatica) swamp habitat, much of which is projected to become permanently flooded (affecting regeneration) under all modeled scenarios for sea-level rise. These findings will aid in the development of ecosystem management plans that support the processes and conditions that result in sustainable coastal ecosystems.

  15. Global Coastal Exposure due to Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points with Multiple Warming Pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tawatari, R.; Iseri, Y.; Kiguchi, M.; Kanae, S.

    2016-12-01

    Sea-level is observed and estimated to continue rising. In the future, the rise could be abrupt and irreversible in century to millennial timescale even if we conduct strong reduction of greenhouse gas emission. Greenland ice sheet and West Antarctic ice sheet are considered as attributable climate systems which would significantly enhance presently-projected sea-level rise by several meters if global mean temperature passes certain "Tipping points" which would exist around +1-5 degree Celsius above present temperature (1980-1999 average). Therefore, vulnerable coastal low-lying area, especially small islands, deltas or poor developing countries, would suffer from semi-permanent inundation and forced to counteract due to the enhanced sea-level rise. This study estimate range of sea-level rise until the year 2300 and 3000 considering excess of tipping points with using multiple levels of temperature scenarios which consist of excess tipping points and non-excess tipping points pathways. We extract state-of-the-art knowledge of tipping elements from paper reviewing to express reasonable relationship between temperature and abruptly-changing sea-level transition across the ages. This study also calculate coastal exposure globally as affected population, area and asset below the estimated sea-level for each countries with overlaying 30 arc-second gridded topography, population distribution and the sea-level. The result indicates which country would be critically affected if we follow overshooting pathways. Furthermore, this study visualize uncertain coastal exposure due to sea-level rise in the future from the multiple warming pathways. This estimation of possible future beyond tipping point would be useful information for decision-makers to establish new planning of defense, migration or mitigation for the future societies.

  16. A framework to investigate the economic growth impact of sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2012-03-01

    This article reviews the channels through which sea level rise can affect economic growth, namely the loss of land, the loss of infrastructure and physical capital, the loss of social capital, the additional cost from extreme events and coastal floods, and the increased expenditure for coastal protection. It discusses how existing studies on the direct impact of sea level rise could be used to investigate the resulting consequences on economic growth, emphasizes research needs on this question, and discusses consequences on migration.

  17. Modeling River Networks in the Continental Shelf during Sea Level Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagherazzi, S.; Wiberg, P. L.

    2003-12-01

    Several processes influence the development of fluvial networks in the continental shelf during sea level low stands. In order to understand the specific role of each process and quantify its influence on channel formation and incision, the Detachment Limited Model (DeLiM) (Howard, 1994) has been applied to several shelf configurations and with different sea-level curves. The computer model incorporates deltaic deposition on the continental shelf as well as sea-level oscillations and is parameterized with Virginia coastal plain data. Simulations show that the major factor controlling incision and channel development is the tendency of streams to reach an equilibrium (graded) configuration. If, for a given river discharge and shelf slope, the sediment load is less than that required to be at grade, channel incision will occur in the exposed shelf until the river long profile is in equilibrium with the current sea level (base level). The geometry and thickness of sediments deposited in deltas and estuaries have a minor influence on the total channel incision, but are of fundamental importance for the spatial development of the channel network. Model results show that the detailed structure of sea level oscillations is important for sediment redistribution and channel changes. Conceptual models that consider a mere succession of sea level high stands and low stands are oversimplified and miss the complex response of the system to gradual sea level oscillations. The initial shelf topography strongly characterizes the future network development. During the simulations the drainage network is initially strongly fragmented, but gradually becomes integrated through depression infilling and dissection of steep scarps. Finally the role of coastal processes is of crucial importance for sediment redistribution and shelf topography modification during sea-level oscillations.

  18. Satellite Altimetry-Based Sea Level at Global and Regional Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ablain, M.; Legeais, J. F.; Prandi, P.; Marcos, M.; Fenoglio-Marc, L.; Dieng, H. B.; Benveniste, J.; Cazenave, A.

    2017-01-01

    Since the beginning of the 1990s, sea level is routinely measured using high-precision satellite altimetry. Over the past 25 years, several groups worldwide involved in processing the satellite altimetry data regularly provide updates of sea level time series at global and regional scales. Here we present an ongoing effort supported by the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initiative Programme for improving the altimetry-based sea level products. Two main objectives characterize this enterprise: (1) to make use of ESA missions (ERS-1 and 2 and Envisat) in addition to the so-called `reference' missions like TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason series in the computation of the sea level time series, and (2) to improve all processing steps in order to meet the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) accuracy requirements defined for a set of 50 Essential Climate Variables, sea level being one of them. We show that improved geophysical corrections, dedicated processing algorithms, reduction of instrumental bias and drifts, and careful linkage between missions led to improved sea level products. Regarding the long-term trend, the new global mean sea level record accuracy now approaches the GCOS requirements (of 0.3 mm/year). Regional trend uncertainty has been reduced by a factor of 2, but orbital and wet tropospheric corrections errors still prevent fully reaching the GCOS accuracy requirement. Similarly at the interannual time scale, the global mean sea level still displays 2-4 mm errors that are not yet fully understood. The recent launch of new altimetry missions (Sentinel-3, Jason-3) and the inclusion of data from currently flying missions (e.g., CryoSat, SARAL/AltiKa) may provide further improvements to this important climate record.

  19. Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Church, J.E.; White, N.J.; Konikow, L.F.; Domingues, C.M.; Cogley, J.G.; Rignot, Eric; Gregory, J.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073765643; Monaghan, A.J.; Velicogna, I.

    2011-01-01

    We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well

  20. Miocene to Present Sea Level and the Origin of Modern Rimmed Atoll Morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, M.; Perron, J. T.; Raymo, M. E.; Ashton, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    Rising sea-level over the next century will reshape our coastlines and make low-lying islands more vulnerable to extreme events. Atolls could potentially provide unique geologic records from periods of high sea level analogous to those we might experience over the coming centuries. However, sea-level records from atolls have been largely overlooked, in part because the processes that shape coral reef and atoll form are often complex and, in many cases, remain unexplored. Darwin's canonical model, which proposes an evolution from fringing reef to barrier reef to atoll as an ocean island ages and subsides, cannot explain the stratigraphy or morphology of many island reefs. We will present a study that combines a numerical model of reef development with existing stratigraphic records from Pacific atolls. The model, driven by sea level, simulates the evolution of atoll morphology using parameterizations of coral growth, rim derived sediment and in situ production, dissolution, and subsidence. We use it to solve for late-Miocene to present sea level by iteratively changing the ice volume and deep-ocean temperature corrections for converting deep-ocean, benthic, δ18O to sea level and finding the best-fit between the model output and corelog stratigraphy from Enewetak Atoll. We then compare lagoon depths produced by the model for different island sizes and dissolution rates (but the same subsidence and sediment production rates) to an independent dataset of real-world observations from the Marshall, Gilbert and Caroline Island chains. Our model results suggest that a period of sustained low sea level occurred during the late Miocene before rising above present moving into the Pliocene. We propose that it was atoll exposure and enhanced lagoon dissolution during the subsequent sea-level fall since the late Pliocene, ~2.7 Ma - not crustal subsidence, as Darwin's canonical model of atoll evolution presumes - that likely drove the development of modern rimmed atoll

  1. Interdecadal variability and linear trend of sea level along the Japanese coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasuda, T.; Sueyoshi, M.

    2010-12-01

    Interdecadal variability and linear trend of sea level along the Japanese coast during the 20th century and their causes are investigated using tide gauge, altimeter, and ocean heat content data. We also examine those in the future climate projected by IPCC-AR4 CGCMs. Historical tide gauge data show that sea level along the Japanese coast has no significant trend during the 20th century. Rather, bidecadal variability and simultaneous variation along the Japanese coast are remarkable. In order to examine the causes of this sea level variability, OGCM experiments forced by the historical atmospheric reanalysis data have been conducted. The long-term variability of the sea level along the Japanese coast is mainly due to the baroclinic Rossby waves forced by changes in the large-scale wind stress fields in the North Pacific with a lag of several years. The bidecadal variability is caused primarily by the meridional shift of the boundary between the subtropical and subpolar gyres, which is forced by the shifting of the westerlies over the central North Pacific. Sea level along the Japanese coast has risen significantly since the mid-1980s. Although this is partly explained by the dynamical response to the wind stress fields, it can be considered that the global mean thermal expansion contributes considerably. On the sea level rise along the Japanese coast in the future climate, multi-model ensemble means indicate sea level change associated with the northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension. 18cm change in the east of Japan is comparable to global mean steric sea level rise. It remains large uncertainty in the atmospheric change over the midlatitude North Pacific associated with global warming. Therefore, it is important to reduce its uncertainty, in addition to evaluate other contributions such as ice sheet melting.

  2. Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Church, J.E.; White, N.J.; Konikow, L.F.; Domingues, C.M.; Cogley, J.G.; Rignot, Eric; Gregory, J.M.; van den Broeke, M.R.; Monaghan, A.J.; Velicogna, I.

    2011-01-01

    We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well wit

  3. Bounding probabilistic sea-level rise projections under the IPCC constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Cozannet, G.; Manceau, J. C.; Rohmer, J.

    2016-12-01

    Despite large progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. In addition, some physical limits to future sea-level rise by 2100 have been established, although approximately. These constraints to future sea-level change projections are essentially associated to epistemic uncertainties, so that the theory of probabilities appears too constraining in terms of quality and quantity of necessary data to account for this type of uncertainty. In this contribution, we propose to go beyond the classical use of probabilities by relying on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory): this prevents from selecting a single cumulative probability distribution, which is hardly achievable given the level of imprecision and lack of knowledge, but rather enables to identify all the possible cumulative probability distributions that are consistent with the available objective pieces of information, namely the constraints provided by the IPCC as well as by recent publications regarding the future melting of ice sheets. We focus on the case of sea-level rise by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Importantly, we make no assumptions regarding the actual shape of the distributions. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections. However, we show that the cumulative probability distributions used so-far have only explored a subset of rather conservative sea-level probabilistic projections. Hence, coastal impacts studies of sea-level rise could be larger than previously estimated while complying with the constraints provided by the IPCC.

  4. Population dynamics of Hawaiian seabird colonies vulnerable to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatfield, Jeff S.; Reynolds, Michelle H.; Seavy, Nathaniel E.; Krause, Crystal M.

    2012-01-01

    Globally, seabirds are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats both at sea and on land. Seabirds typically nest colonially and show strong fidelity to natal colonies, and such colonies on low-lying islands may be threatened by sea-level rise. We used French Frigate Shoals, the largest atoll in the Hawaiian Archipelago, as a case study to explore the population dynamics of seabird colonies and the potential effects sea-level rise may have on these rookeries. We compiled historic observations, a 30-year time series of seabird population abundance, lidar-derived elevations, and aerial imagery of all the islands of French Frigate Shoals. To estimate the population dynamics of 8 species of breeding seabirds on Tern Island from 1980 to 2009, we used a Gompertz model with a Bayesian approach to infer population growth rates, density dependence, process variation, and observation error. All species increased in abundance, in a pattern that provided evidence of density dependence. Great Frigatebirds (Fregata minor), Masked Boobies (Sula dactylatra), Red-tailed Tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda), Spectacled Terns (Onychoprion lunatus), and White Terns (Gygis alba) are likely at carrying capacity. Density dependence may exacerbate the effects of sea-level rise on seabirds because populations near carrying capacity on an island will be more negatively affected than populations with room for growth. We projected 12% of French Frigate Shoals will be inundated if sea level rises 1 m and 28% if sea level rises 2 m. Spectacled Terns and shrub-nesting species are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise, but seawalls and habitat restoration may mitigate the effects of sea-level rise. Losses of seabird nesting habitat may be substantial in the Hawaiian Islands by 2100 if sea levels rise 2 m. Restoration of higher-elevation seabird colonies represent a more enduring conservation solution for Pacific seabirds.

  5. Multiproxy assessment of Holocene relative sea-level changes in the western Mediterranean: sea-level variability and improvements in the definition of the isostatic signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacchi, Matteo; Rovere, Alessio; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Spada, Giorgio; Fontana, Alessandro

    2016-04-01

    After the review of 918 radiocarbon dated Relative Sea-Level (RSL) data-points we present here the first quality-controlled database constraining the Holocene sea-level histories of the western Mediterranean Sea (Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta and Tunisia). We reviewed and standardized the geological RSL data-points using a new multi-proxy methodology based on: (1) modern taxa assemblages in Mediterranean lagoons and marshes; (2) beachrock characteristics (cement fabric and chemistry, sedimentary structures); and (3) the modern distribution of Mediterranean fixed biological indicators. These RSL data-points were coupled with the large number of archaeological RSL indicators available for the western Mediterranean. We assessed the spatial variability of RSL histories for 22 regions and compared these with the ICE-5G VM2 GIA model. In the western Mediterranean, RSL rose continuously for the whole Holocene with a sudden slowdown at ~7.5 ka BP and a further deceleration during the last ~4.0 ka BP, after which time observed RSL changes are mainly related to variability in isostatic adjustment. The sole exception is southern Tunisia, where data show evidence of a mid-Holocene high-stand compatible with the isostatic impacts of the melting history of the remote Antarctic ice sheet. Our results indicate that late-Holocene sea-level rise was significantly slower than the current one. First estimates of GIA contribution indicate that, at least in the northwestern sector, it accounts at least for the 25-30% of the ongoing sea-level rise recorded by Mediterranean tidal gauges. Such contribution is less constrained at lower latitudes due to the lower quality of the late Holocene index points. Future applications of spatio-temporal statistical techniques are required to better quantify the gradient of the isostatic contribution and to provide improved context for the assessment of 20th century acceleration of Mediterranean sea-level rise.

  6. Probabilistic projection of sea-level change along the world's coastlines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Perrette

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice-sheets. Locally, sea-level changes can strongly deviate from the global mean due to ocean dynamics. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses, an effect currently not incorporated in climate models. Here, we provide probabilistic projections of sea level changes along the world's coastlines for the end of the 21st century under the new RCP emission scenarios, taking into account uncertainties across the cause-effect chain from greenhouse-gas emissions to ocean heat uptake and regional land-ice melt. At low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%, but up to 45% in Tokyo area. Around the North Atlantic and the North-Eastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. Our probabilistic regional sea level projections provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

  7. Implications of accelerated sea-level rise on Louisiana coastal environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, Karen E.; Penland, Shea; Roberts, Harry H.

    1991-01-01

    Natural and human-induced processes have combined to produce high rates of relative sea-level rise and coastal land loss in Louisiana. This paper presents historical trends in sea-level rise and the implication of predicted accelerated rise scenarios on Louisiana's coastal environments. Mean eustatic sea-level in the Gulf of Mexico is 0.23 cm/yr. In Louisiana, relative sea-level rise, which combines eustacy and subsidence, averages from 0.50 cm/yr in the chenier plain to 1.0 cm/yr in the delta plain. Subsidence due to the compaction of Holocene sediments is believed to be the major component influencing these high rates of rise. Subsidence contributes up to 80% of the observed relative sea-level rise in coastal Louisiana. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) predicts the rate of sea-level rise to increase over the next century due to global climate change. If these predictions are accurate, a dramatic increase in the coastal land loss conditions in Louisiana can be expected.

  8. Internal Variability Versus Anthropogenic Forcing on Sea Level and Its Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos, Marta; Marzeion, Ben; Dangendorf, Sönke; Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Palanisamy, Hindumathi; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana

    2016-05-01

    In this paper we review and update detection and attribution studies in sea level and its major contributors during the past decades. Tide gauge records reveal that the observed twentieth-century global and regional sea level rise is out of the bounds of its natural variability, evidencing thus a human fingerprint in the reported trends. The signal varies regionally, and it partly depends on the magnitude of the background variability. The human fingerprint is also manifested in the contributors of sea level for which observations are available, namely ocean thermal expansion and glaciers' mass loss, which dominated the global sea level rise over the twentieth century. Attribution studies provide evidence that the trends in both components are clearly dominated by anthropogenic forcing over the second half of the twentieth century. In the earlier decades, there is a lack of observations hampering an improved attribution of causes to the observed sea level rise. At certain locations along the coast, the human influence is exacerbated by local coastal activities that induce land subsidence and increase the risk of sea level-related hazards.

  9. Impacts of Antarctic fast dynamics on sea-level projections and coastal flood defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Tony E.; Bakker, Alexander M. R.; Keller, Klaus

    2017-09-01

    Strategies to manage the risks posed by future sea-level rise hinge on a sound characterization of the inherent uncertainties. One of the major uncertainties is the possible rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to rising global temperatures. This could potentially lead to several meters of sea-level rise during the next few centuries. Previous studies have typically been silent on two coupled questions: (i) What are probabilistic estimates of this "fast dynamics" contribution to sea-level rise? (ii) What are the implications for strategies to manage coastal flooding risks? Here, we present probabilistic hindcasts and projections of sea-level rise to 2100. The fast dynamics mechanism is approximated by a simple parameterization, designed to allow for a careful quantification of the uncertainty in its contribution to sea-level rise. We estimate that global temperature increases ranging from 1.9 to 3.1{\\deg}C coincide with fast Antarctic disintegration, and these contributions account for sea-level rise of 21-74 centimeters this century (5-95% range, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5). We use a simple cost-benefit analysis of coastal defense to demonstrate in a didactic exercise how neglecting this mechanism and associated uncertainty can (i) lead to strategies which fall sizably short of protection targets and (ii) increase the expected net costs.

  10. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L; Fletcher, Charles H; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D

    2017-05-18

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  11. Long-Term Internal Variability Effects on Centennial Dynamic Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadi Bordbar, Mohammad; Martin, Thomas; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

    2015-04-01

    The Earth's surface is warming in response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2). Sea level rise is one of the most pressing aspects of global warming with far-reaching consequences for coastal societies. However, sea level rise did and will strongly vary from coast to coast. Here we investigate the long-term internal variability effects on centennial projections of dynamic sea level (DSL), the local departure from the globally averaged sea level. A large ensemble of global warming integrations was conducted with a climate model, where each ensemble member was forced by identical CO2-increase but started from different atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions taken from an unforced millennial control run. In large parts of the mid- and high latitudes, the ensemble spread of the projected centennial DSL trends is of the same order of magnitude as the globally averaged steric sea level rise, suggesting internal variability cannot be ignored when assessing 21st century DSL changes. This conclusion is also supported by analyzing projections with other climate models. The ensemble spread is strongly reduced in the mid- to high latitudes if only the atmospheric initial conditions are perturbed; suggesting uncertainty in the projected centennial DSL trends there is largely due to the lack of ocean information. Thus climate model projections of regional sea level would benefit from ocean initialization.

  12. Impact of remote oceanic forcing on Gulf of Alaska sea levels and mesoscale circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Metzger, E. Joseph; Hurlburt, Harley E.

    2003-11-01

    We examine the relative importance of regional wind forcing and teleconnections by an oceanic pathway for impact on interannual ocean circulation variability in the Gulf of Alaska. Any additional factors that contribute to this variability, such as freshwater forcing from river runoff, are disregarded. The study is based on results from numerical simulations, sea level data from tide gauge stations, and sea surface height anomalies from satellite altimeter data. At the heart of this investigation is a comparison of ocean simulations that include and exclude interannual oceanic teleconnections of an equatorial origin. Using lagged correlations, the model results imply that 70-90% of the interannual coastal sea level variance in the Gulf of Alaska can be related to interannual sea levels at La Libertad, Equador. These values are higher than the corresponding range from sea level data, which is 25-55%. When oceanic teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific are excluded in the model, the explained variance becomes about 20% or less. During poleward propagation the coastally trapped sea level signal in the model is less attenuated than the observed signal. In the Gulf of Alaska we find well-defined sea level peaks in the aftermath of El Niño events. The interannual intensity of eddies in the Gulf of Alaska also peaks after El Niño events; however, these maxima are less clear after weak and moderate El Niño events. The interannual variations in eddy activity intensity are predominantly governed by the regional atmospheric forcing.

  13. Observational evidence for volcanic impact on sea level and the global water cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinsted, A; Moore, J C; Jevrejeva, S

    2007-12-11

    It has previously been noted that there are drops in global sea level (GSL) after some major volcanic eruptions. However, observational evidence has not been convincing because there is substantial variability in the global sea level record over periods similar to those at which we expect volcanoes to have an impact. To quantify the impact of volcanic eruptions we average monthly GSL data from 830 tide gauge records around five major volcanic eruptions. Surprisingly, we find that the initial response to a volcanic eruption is a significant rise in sea level of 9 +/- 3 mm in the first year after the eruption. This rise is followed by a drop of 7 +/- 3 mm in the period 2-3 years after the eruption relative to preeruption sea level. These results are statistically robust and no particular volcanic eruption or ocean region dominates the signature we find. Neither the drop nor especially the rise in GSL can be explained by models of lower oceanic heat content. We suggest that the mechanism is a transient disturbance of the water cycle with a delayed response of land river runoff relative to ocean evaporation and global precipitation that affects global sea level. The volcanic impact on the water cycle and sea levels is comparable in magnitude to that of a large El Niño-La Niña cycle, amounting to approximately 5% of global land precipitation.

  14. Final report for sea-level rise response modeling for San Francisco Bay estuary tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takekawa, John Y.; Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Spragens, Kyle A.; Swanson, Kathleen M.; Drexler, Judith Z.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    The International Panel on Climate Change has identified coastal ecosystems as areas that will be disproportionally affected by climate change. Current sea-level rise projections range widely with 0.57 to 1.9 meters increase in mea sea level by 2100. The expected accelerated rate of sea-level rise through the 21st century will put many coastal ecosystems at risk, especially those in topographically low-gradient areas. We assessed marsh accretion and plant community state changes through 2100 at 12 tidal salt marshes around San Francisco Bay estuary with a sea-level rise response model. Detailed ground elevation, vegetation, and water level data were collected at all sites between 2008 and 2011 and used as model inputs. Sediment cores (taken by Callaway and others, 2012) at four sites around San Francisco Bay estuary were used to estimate accretion rates. A modification of the Callaway and others (1996) model, the Wetland Accretion Rate Model for Ecosystem Resilience (WARMER), was utilized to run sea-level rise response models for all sites. With a mean sea level rise of 1.24 m by 2100, WARMER projected that the vast majority, 95.8 percent (1,942 hectares), of marsh area in our study will lose marsh plant communities by 2100 and to transition to a relative elevation range consistent with mudflat habitat. Three marshes were projected to maintain marsh vegetation to 2100, but they only composed 4.2 percent (85 hectares) of the total marsh area surveyed.

  15. Sea Level Rise Scenarios and Predicted Impacts on New Hampshire's Hampton-Seabrook Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haile, R.; Hale, S. R.; Rock, B. N.

    2008-12-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Environmental Protection Agency, and the Union of Concerned Scientist, coastal areas could experience a rise in sea level from 0.3m (conservative) to 6m (extreme). Due in part to global warming, over the last 100 years mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast sea level has risen approximately 0.1m more than the average global rise. GIS models illustrating future sea level rise (SLR) projections were generated to assess the potential impact on beaches and estuaries of Hampton and Seabrook, New Hampshire (NH). Limited, but important, tidal wetlands are particularly at risk from rising sea levels. A raster unsupervised landcover classification and a Digital Elevation Model of the southeastern NH coastal region were overlain in ARC/GIS v. 9.0. Sea level rise predictions greater than 1.2m will result in the inundation of greater than 50 percent of the emergent area of the Hampton/Seabrook estuary and urban development fringing the estuary will be prone to greater flooding from storm surges and high tides. An approximate 6m rise in sea level will inundate greater than 95 percent of the Hampton-Seabrook tidal marsh and greater than 95 percent of New Hampshire's existing sand dunes.

  16. Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Padre Island National Seashore (PAIS) to Sea-Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pendleton, Elizabeth A.; Thieler, E. Robert; Williams, S. Jeffress; Beavers, Rebecca S.

    2004-01-01

    A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) was used to map the relative vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise within Padre Island National Seashore in Texas. The CVI ranks the following in terms of their physical contribution to sea-level rise-related coastal change: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, rate of relative sea-level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range and mean significant wave height. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1-minute grid cells covering the park. The CVI highlights those regions where the physical effects of sea-level rise might be the greatest. This approach combines the coastal system's susceptibility to change with its natural ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions, yielding a quantitative, although relative, measure of the park's natural vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise. The CVI provides an objective technique for evaluation and long-term planning by scientists and park managers. Padre Island National Seashore consists of stable to washover dominated portions of barrier beach backed by wetland, marsh, tidal flat, or grassland. The areas within Padre that are likely to be most vulnerable to sea-level rise are those with the highest occurrence of overwash and the highest rates of shoreline change.

  17. Development of sea level rise scenarios for climate change assessments of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.; Day, Richard H.; Michot, Thomas C.

    2010-01-01

    Rising sea level poses critical ecological and economical consequences for the low-lying megadeltas of the world where dependent populations and agriculture are at risk. The Mekong Delta of Vietnam is one of many deltas that are especially vulnerable because much of the land surface is below mean sea level and because there is a lack of coastal barrier protection. Food security related to rice and shrimp farming in the Mekong Delta is currently under threat from saltwater intrusion, relative sea level rise, and storm surge potential. Understanding the degree of potential change in sea level under climate change is needed to undertake regional assessments of potential impacts and to formulate adaptation strategies. This report provides constructed time series of potential sea level rise scenarios for the Mekong Delta region by incorporating (1) aspects of observed intra- and inter-annual sea level variability from tide records and (2) projected estimates for different rates of regional subsidence and accelerated eustacy through the year 2100 corresponding with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate models and emission scenarios.

  18. Tension between reducing sea-level rise and global warming through solar-radiation management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, P. J.; Sriver, R. L.; Keller, K.

    2012-02-01

    Geoengineering using solar-radiation management (SRM) is gaining interest as a potential strategy to reduce future climate change impacts. Basic physics and past observations suggest that reducing insolation will, on average, cool the Earth. It is uncertain, however, whether SRM can reduce climate change stressors such as sea-level rise or rates of surface air temperature change. Here we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to quantify the possible response of sea levels and surface air temperatures to projected climate forcings and SRM strategies. We find that SRM strategies introduce a potentially strong tension between the objectives to reduce (1) the rate of temperature change and (2) sea-level rise. This tension arises primarily because surface air temperatures respond faster to radiative forcings than sea levels. Our results show that the forcing required to stop sea-level rise could cause a rapid cooling with a rate similar to the peak business-as-usual warming rate. Furthermore, termination of SRM was found to produce warming rates up to five times greater than the maximum rates under the business-as-usual CO2 scenario, whereas sea-level rise rates were only 30% higher. Reducing these risks requires a slow phase-out of many decades and thus commits future generations.

  19. Processes contributing to resilience of coastal wetlands to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagg, Camille L.; Krauss, Ken W.; Cahoon, Donald R.; Cormier, Nicole; Conner, William H.; Swarzenski, Christopher M.

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to identify processes that contribute to resilience of coastal wetlands subject to rising sea levels and to determine whether the relative contribution of these processes varies across different wetland community types. We assessed the resilience of wetlands to sea-level rise along a transitional gradient from tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW) to marsh by measuring processes controlling wetland elevation. We found that, over 5 years of measurement, TFFWs were resilient, although some marginally, and oligohaline marshes exhibited robust resilience to sea-level rise. We identified fundamental differences in how resilience is maintained across wetland community types, which have important implications for management activities that aim to restore or conserve resilient systems. We showed that the relative importance of surface and subsurface processes in controlling wetland surface elevation change differed between TFFWs and oligohaline marshes. The marshes had significantly higher rates of surface accretion than the TFFWs, and in the marshes, surface accretion was the primary contributor to elevation change. In contrast, elevation change in TFFWs was more heavily influenced by subsurface processes, such as root zone expansion or compaction, which played an important role in determining resilience of TFFWs to rising sea level. When root zone contributions were removed statistically from comparisons between relative sea-level rise and surface elevation change, sites that previously had elevation rate deficits showed a surplus. Therefore, assessments of wetland resilience that do not include subsurface processes will likely misjudge vulnerability to sea-level rise.

  20. Song Hong (Red River) delta evolution related to millennium-scale Holocene sea-level changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanabe, Susumu; Hori, Kazuaki; Saito, Yoshiki; Haruyama, Shigeko; Vu, Van Phai; Kitamura, Akihisa

    2003-11-01

    The Song Hong (Red River) delta occurs on the northwest coast of the South China Sea. Its evolution in response to Holocene sea-level changes was clarified on the basis of sedimentary facies and 14 radiocarbon dates from the 40 m long Duy Tien core from the delta plain, and using previously reported geological, geomorphological, and archaeological data. The delta prograded into the drowned valley as a result of early Holocene inundation from 9 to 6 cal. kyr BP, as sea-level rise decelerated. The sea-level highstand at +2-3 m from 6 to 4 cal. kyr BP allowed widespread mangrove development on the delta plain and the formation of marine notches in the Ha Long Bay and Ninh Binh areas. During sea-level lowering after 4 cal. kyr BP, the former delta plain emerged as a marine terrace, and the delta changed into the present tide- and wave-influenced delta with accompanying beach ridges. Delta morphology, depositional pattern, and sedimentary facies are closely related to Holocene sea-level changes. In particular, falling sea level at 4 cal. kyr BP had a major impact on the evolution of the Song Hong delta, and is considered to be linked to climate changes.

  1. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitousek, Sean; Barnard, Patrick L.; Fletcher, Charles H.; Frazer, Neil; Erikson, Li; Storlazzi, Curt D.

    2017-01-01

    Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

  2. Substantial contribution to sea-level rise during the last interglacial from the Greenland ice sheet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuffey; Marshall

    2000-04-06

    During the last interglacial period (the Eemian), global sea level was at least three metres, and probably more than five metres, higher than at present. Complete melting of either the West Antarctic ice sheet or the Greenland ice sheet would today raise sea levels by 6-7 metres. But the high sea levels during the last interglacial period have been proposed to result mainly from disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet, with model studies attributing only 1-2 m of sea-level rise to meltwater from Greenland. This result was considered consistent with ice core evidence, although earlier work had suggested a much reduced Greenland ice sheet during the last interglacial period. Here we reconsider the Eemian evolution of the Greenland ice sheet by combining numerical modelling with insights obtained from recent central Greenland ice-core analyses. Our results suggest that the Greenland ice sheet was considerably smaller and steeper during the Eemian, and plausibly contributed 4-5.5 m to the sea-level highstand during that period. We conclude that the high sea level during the last interglacial period most probably included a large contribution from Greenland meltwater and therefore should not be interpreted as evidence for a significant reduction of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

  3. Towards regional projections of twenty-first century sea-level change based on IPCC SRES scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slangen, A.B.A.; Katsman, C.A.; Van de Wal, R.S.W.; Vermeersen, L.L.A.; Riva, R,E.M.

    2012-01-01

    Sea-level change is often considered to be globally uniform in sea-level projections. However, local relative sea-level (RSL) change can deviate substantially from the global mean. Here, we present maps of twenty-first century local RSL change estimates based on an ensemble of coupled climate model

  4. Improving public health training and research capacity in Africa: a replicable model for linking training to health and socio-demographic surveillance data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jill R. Williams

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Research training for public health professionals is key to the future of public health and policy in Africa. A growing number of schools of public health are connected to health and socio-demographic surveillance system field sites in developing countries, in Africa and Asia in particular. Linking training programs with these sites provides important opportunities to improve training, build local research capacity, foreground local health priorities, and increase the relevance of research to local health policy. Objective: To increase research training capacity in public health programs by providing targeted training to students and increasing the accessibility of existing data. Design: This report is a case study of an approach to linking public health research and training at the University of the Witwatersrand. We discuss the development of a sample training database from the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System in South Africa and outline a concordant transnational intensive short course on longitudinal data analysis offered by the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Colorado-Boulder. This case study highlights ways common barriers to linking research and training can be overcome. Results and Conclusions: This collaborative effort demonstrates that linking training to ongoing data collection can improve student research, accelerate student training, and connect students to an international network of scholars. Importantly, the approach can be adapted to other partnerships between schools of public health and longitudinal research sites.

  5. Coastal sea level variability in the US West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurapov, Alexander L.; Erofeeva, Svetlana Y.; Myers, Edward

    2017-01-01

    Sea level variability along the US West Coast is analyzed using multi-year time series records from tide gauges and a high-resolution regional ocean model, the base of the West Coast Ocean Forecast System (WCOFS). One of the metrics utilized is the frequency of occurrences when model prediction is within 0.15 m from the observed sea level, F. A target level of F = 90% is set by an operational agency. A combination of the tidal sea level from a shallow water inverse model, inverted barometer (IB) term computed using surface air pressure from a mesoscale atmospheric model, and low-pass filtered sea level from WCOFS representing the effect of coastal ocean dynamics (DYN) provides the most straightforward approach to reaching levels F>80%. The IB and DYN components each add between 5 and 15% to F. Given the importance of the DYN term bringing F closer to the operational requirement and its role as an indicator of the coastal ocean processes on scales from days to interannual, additional verification of the WCOFS subtidal sea level is provided in terms of the model-data correlation, standard deviation of the band-pass filtered (2-60 days) time series, the annual cycle amplitude, and alongshore sea level coherence in the range of 5-120-day periods. Model-data correlation in sea level increases from south to north along the US coast. The rms amplitude of model sea level variability in the 2-60-day band and its annual amplitude are weaker than observed north of 42 N, in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast region. The alongshore coherence amplitude and phase patterns are similar in the model and observations. Availability of the multi-year model solution allows computation and analysis of spatial maps of the coherence amplitude. For a reference location in the Southern California Bight, relatively short-period sea level motions (near 10 days) are incoherent with those north of the Santa Barbara Channel (in part, due to coastal trapped wave scattering and/or dissipation). At a

  6. Effect of Sea Level Variation on Tidal Characteristic Values for the East China Sea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于宜法; 俞聿修; 左军成; 万振文; 陈宗镛

    2003-01-01

    Tidal waves in the East China Sea are simulated numerically with POM(Princeton Ocean Model) model for normal mean sea level, 30 cm higher, 60 cm higher, and 100 cm higher, respectively, and the simulated result is compared with the harmonic analysis result of hourly sea level data from 19 tide gauges for more than 19 years. It is indicated that the long-term mean sea level variation affects notably tidal waves in this region. Generally, the tidal amplitude increases when the mean sea level rises, but this relationship may be inverse for some sea areas. The maximal variation of tidal amplitude takes place in the zones near the Fujian coast and the Zhejiang coast, rather than the shallowest Bohai Sea. The maximum increase of M2 amplitude can exceed about 15 cm corresponding to the 60 cm rise of the mean sea level along the Fujian coast. The other regions with large variations of tidal amplitude are those along the Jiangsu coast, the south-east coast of Shandong, and the south-east coast of Dalian. The propagation of tidal waves is also related to mean sea level variation, and the tidal phase-lag decreases generally when the mean sea level rises. Almost all the regions where the tidal phase-lag increases with rising mean sea level are close to amphidromic points, meanwhile the spatial area of such regions is very small. Because the influence of mean sea level variation upon tidal waves is spatially marked, such spatial effect should be considered in calculation of the tidal characteristic value and engineering water level. In the region where the amplitudes of the major tidal constituents increase, the probable maximum high water level becomes higher, the probable maximum low water level becomes lower, and both design water level andcheck water level increase obviously. For example, the design water level at Xiamen increases by 13.5 cm due to the variation of tidal waves when the mean sea level rises 60 cm, the total increase of design water level being 73.5 cm.

  7. Mid- to Late Holocene Sea-Level Record in French Polynesia, South-Central Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallmann, N.; Camoin, G.; Vella, C.; Eisenhauer, A.; Samankassou, E.; Botella, A.; Milne, G. A.; Fietzke, J.; Dussouillez, P.; Plaine, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Mid- to Late Holocene provides the opportunity to study the coastal response to sea-level change that has a similar amplitude (i.e., a few decimetres up to 1 m) to the sea-level rise that is likely to occur before the end of the current century. Furthermore, this time period provides an important baseline of natural climate variability prior to the industrial revolution. This study aims to reconstruct Mid- to Late Holocene relative sea-level change in French Polynesia by examining coral reef records from ten islands, which represent ideal settings for accurate sea-level change studies because: 1) they can be regarded as tectonically stable during the relevant period (slow subsidence), 2) they are located far from former ice sheets ('far-field'), 3) they are characterized by a low tidal amplitude, and 4) they cover a wide range of latitudes which produces significantly improved constraints on GIA (Glacial Isostatic Adjustment) model parameters. The accurate reconstruction of sea-level change relies on absolute U/Th dating of in situ coral colonies and their accurate positioning via GPS RTK (Real Time Kinematic) measurements with a vertical and horizontal precision of ± 2.5 cm and ~1 cm, respectively. We focus mainly on the analysis of coral microatolls, which are sensitive low-tide recorders, as their vertical accretion is limited by the water level. Their growth patterns allow the reconstruction of low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level changes on centennial to sub-decadal time scales. A sea-level rise of less than ~1 m is documented between 6 and 3-3.5 ka, and is followed by a gradual fall in sea level that started around 2 ka and persisted until the past few centuries. The reconstructed sea-level curve therefore extends the Tahiti sea-level curve [Deschamps et al., 2012, Nature, 483, 559-564], and is in good agreement with a geophysical model tuned to fit far-field deglacial records [Bassett et al., 2005, Science, 309, 925-928].

  8. More than 70 years of continuous sea level records on the Santander Bay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavín, Alicia; Tel, Elena; Molinero, Joaquin; Rodriguez, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    The knowledge of sea level height is important for many different sectors as navigation, transport, building infrastructures, tourism, or maritime sports, between others. Tides are mainly composed of an astronomical part and a meteorological one. Sometimes, their joined action is the responsible of extreme behaviors in the sea level. Influence of pressure differences, as well as related winds, is important in the behavior of sea level to analyze. The first system for reading the sea level was a tide board attached at the pier. In Spain the first modern tide gauge was installed in the Port of Alicante, Mediterranean Sea, in 1873 depending of the National Geographic Institute (IGN). Just the following year, a similar tide gauge was installed at the entrance of the Santander Bay. "La Magdalena" tide gauge was working during two periods 1876-1928 and 1963-1975. Together with Cádiz, the IGN tide gauges were used to determinate the national datum for terrestrial cartography. The Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO) tide gauge network was initiated in 1943 with the installation of tide gauges along the Spanish coast. One of them was located in Santander and has been working since then. At the beginning it was a float tide gauge connected to a graphical continuous recorder. Nowadays, it also has a digital encoder and a remote connection that allow using the recorded data for operational purposes. Later a Radar system was added. This tide gauge is referred to the Tide Gauge Zero and also calibrated to a benchmark in order to have a unique reference. This high quality sea level information is required for international and regional research activities, as Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). In particular, long time series are widely used for climate change detection. The sea level long term variability studies require a very good quality data focus in the reference of the data along the whole period and also it will be more precisely if we can remove the crustal

  9. A Single Session of Mirror-based Tactile and Motor Training Improves Tactile Dysfunction in Children with Unilateral Cerebral Palsy: A Replicated Randomized Controlled Case Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auld, Megan L; Johnston, Leanne M; Russo, Remo N; Moseley, G Lorimer

    2016-08-17

    This replicated randomized controlled crossover case series investigated the effect of mirror-based tactile and motor training on tactile registration and perception in children with unilateral cerebral palsy (UCP). Six children with UCP (6-18 years; median 10 years, five male, three-left hemiplegia, four-manual ability classification system (MACS) I, one MACS II and one MACS III) participated. They attended two 90-minute sessions - one of mirror-based training and one of standard practice, bimanual therapy - in alternated order. Tactile registration (Semmes Weinstein Monofilaments) and perception (double simultaneous or single-point localization) were assessed before and after each session. Change was estimated using reliable change index (RCI). Tactile perception improved in four participants (RCI > 1.75), with mirror-based training, but was unchanged with bimanual therapy (RCI Mirror-based training demonstrates potential to improve tactile perception in children with UCP. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Interactive computer training to teach discrete-trial instruction to undergraduates and special educators in Brazil: A replication and extension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higbee, Thomas S; Aporta, Ana Paula; Resende, Alice; Nogueira, Mateus; Goyos, Celso; Pollard, Joy S

    2016-12-01

    Discrete-trial instruction (DTI) is a behavioral method of teaching young children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) that has received a significant amount of research support. Because of a lack of qualified trainers in many areas of the world, researchers have recently begun to investigate alternative methods of training professionals to implement behavioral teaching procedures. One promising training method is interactive computer training, in which slides with recorded narration, video modeling, and embedded evaluation of content knowledge are used to teach a skill. In the present study, the effectiveness of interactive computer training developed by Pollard, Higbee, Akers, and Brodhead (2014), translated into Brazilian Portuguese, was evaluated with 4 university students (Study 1) and 4 special education teachers (Study 2). We evaluated the effectiveness of training on DTI skills during role-plays with research assistants (Study 1) and during DTI sessions with young children with ASD (Studies 1 and 2) using a multiple baseline design. All participants acquired DTI skills after interactive computer training, although 5 of 8 participants required some form of feedback to reach proficiency. Responding generalized to untaught teaching programs for all participants. We evaluated maintenance with the teachers in Study 2, and DTI skills were maintained with 3 of 4 participants.

  11. Impact of sea level rise in coastal systems - Ria de Aveiro case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picado, A.; Mendes, R.; Vaz, N.; Dias, J. M.

    2012-04-01

    The mean sea level rising is an important consequence of climate change because of its impact on society and coastal ecosystems. Tide gauge information evidences that global mean sea level has increased in the 20th century, and it is expected that its rise will continue during the 21th century. However, the sea levels are not changing uniformly around the world, as both tide gauge and satellite data confirm. Sea level rise can have a wide variety of impacts on worldwide coastal areas, causing flooding, land loss, the salinization of groundwater and the destruction of built property and infrastructures. In Portugal, the region's most affected by the sea level rise are probably the Aveiro and Formosa coastal lagoons as well as the Tagus and Sado estuaries. A good understanding of the sea level rise influence in the estuarine tidal dynamics is crucial to mitigate these problems. However, the response of each coastal region to sea level rise depends on the physical features of the coastal system, and therefore their effects should be locally assessed. Thus, this work aims to investigate the potential impacts of the mean sea level rise in coastal regions, analysing the particular case of Ria de Aveiro, which is in risk of flooding. To assess these changes the numerical model Mohid was implemented in Ria de Aveiro. Mohid is a finite volume model, designed for coastal and estuarine shallow water applications. Although Mohid is a 3D baroclinic model, it was used herein in baratropic mode with a single vertical layer, considering that due to its shallow depths, Ria de Aveiro circulation can be simulated with a depth integrated model. The model was used initially to characterize the lagoons hydrodynamic under the actual sea level, through the determination of the amplitude and phase of the main tidal constituents, maximum levels and velocities, tidal asymmetry, as well as the tidal prism in the main sections of the lagoon. After, a realistic regional sea level rise scenario

  12. A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutierrez, B.T.; Plant, N.G.; Thieler, E.R.

    2011-01-01

    Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  13. Effective inundation of continental United States communities with 21st century sea level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina A. Dahl

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent, tidally driven coastal flooding is one of the most visible signs of sea level rise. Recent studies have shown that such flooding will become more frequent and extensive as sea level continues to rise, potentially altering the landscape and livability of coastal communities decades before sea level rise causes coastal land to be permanently inundated. In this study, we identify US communities that will face effective inundation—defined as having 10% or more of livable land area flooded at least 26 times per year—with three localized sea level rise scenarios based on projections for the 3rd US National Climate Assessment. We present these results in a new, online interactive tool that allows users to explore when and how effective inundation will impact their communities. In addition, we identify communities facing effective inundation within the next 30 years that contain areas of high socioeconomic vulnerability today using a previously published vulnerability index. With the Intermediate-High and Highest sea level rise scenarios, 489 and 668 communities, respectively, would face effective inundation by the year 2100. With these two scenarios, more than half of communities facing effective inundation by 2045 contain areas of current high socioeconomic vulnerability. These results highlight the timeframes that US coastal communities have to respond to disruptive future inundation. The results also underscore the importance of limiting future warming and sea level rise: under the Intermediate-Low scenario, used as a proxy for sea level rise under the Paris Climate Agreement, 199 fewer communities would be effectively inundated by 2100.

  14. Efficacy of geoengineering to limit 21st century sea-level rise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J C; Jevrejeva, S; Grinsted, A

    2010-09-07

    Geoengineering has been proposed as a feasible way of mitigating anthropogenic climate change, especially increasing global temperatures in the 21st century. The two main geoengineering options are limiting incoming solar radiation, or modifying the carbon cycle. Here we examine the impact of five geoengineering approaches on sea level; SO(2) aerosol injection into the stratosphere, mirrors in space, afforestation, biochar, and bioenergy with carbon sequestration. Sea level responds mainly at centennial time scales to temperature change, and has been largely driven by anthropogenic forcing since 1850. Making use a model of sea-level rise as a function of time-varying climate forcing factors (solar radiation, volcanism, and greenhouse gas emissions) we find that sea-level rise by 2100 will likely be 30 cm higher than 2000 levels despite all but the most aggressive geoengineering under all except the most stringent greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The least risky and most desirable way of limiting sea-level rise is bioenergy with carbon sequestration. However aerosol injection or a space mirror system reducing insolation at an accelerating rate of 1 W m(-2) per decade from now to 2100 could limit or reduce sea levels. Aerosol injection delivering a constant 4 W m(-2) reduction in radiative forcing (similar to a 1991 Pinatubo eruption every 18 months) could delay sea-level rise by 40-80 years. Aerosol injection appears to fail cost-benefit analysis unless it can be maintained continuously, and damage caused by the climate response to the aerosols is less than about 0.6% Global World Product.

  15. Synthetic stratigraphy of epicontinental seas: a carbonate sedimentation model and its applications in sea level studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cisne, J.L.; Gildner, R.F.

    1984-04-01

    Carbonates from the central parts of epicontinental seas are ideal strata for detailed study of eustatic sea level change. On the basis of sedimentation model in which carbonate accumulation rate is directly proportional to water depth, we developed synthetic stratigraphies for sea level histories expected for post-glacial transgression and for constant and sinusoidally fluctuating ocean ridge volume increase. These histories give distinctly different trends for water depth as a function of stratigraphic position in the sections' bathymetric curves. In general, water depth is proportional to the rate of sea level rise. Depth-dependent sedimentation leads to a time lag between sea level fluctuation and corresponding depth fluctuation which, as examples show, can approach 10/sup 6/ years for depth fluctuations of even a few meters--a fundamental consideration for reconstructing sea level curves, time-correlating sections by bathymetric curves, and relating water depth on continents to ocean ridge volume. Bathymetric curves based on gradient analysis of fossil assemblages (coenocorrelation curves) for American Middle Ordovician sections approximate patterns expected for sinusoidally increasing sea level. The model's predictions are tested in an ''artificial experiment'' that takes advantage of differential subsidence between the craton's middle and its edge to make a difference in the bathymetric histories of sections that otherwise record the same sea level history. The depth dependence in sedimentation was that above wave base net accumulation per year was very roughly 3 x 10/sup -6/ of the water depth.

  16. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Geodetic Vertical Datum of Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Din, A. H. M.; Abazu, I. C.; Pa'suya, M. F.; Omar, K. M.; Hamid, A. I. A.

    2016-09-01

    Sea level rise is rapidly turning into major issues among our community and all levels of the government are working to develop responses to ensure these matters are given the uttermost attention in all facets of planning. It is more interesting to understand and investigate the present day sea level variation due its potential impact, particularly on our national geodetic vertical datum. To determine present day sea level variation, it is vital to consider both in-situ tide gauge and remote sensing measurements. This study presents an effort to quantify the sea level rise rate and magnitude over Peninsular Malaysia using tide gauge and multi-mission satellite altimeter. The time periods taken for both techniques are 32 years (from 1984 to 2015) for tidal data and 23 years (from 1993 to 2015) for altimetry data. Subsequently, the impact of sea level rise on Peninsular Malaysia Geodetic Vertical Datum (PMGVD) is evaluated in this study. the difference between MSL computed from 10 years (1984 - 1993) and 32 years (1984 - 2015) tidal data at Port Kelang showed that the increment of sea level is about 27mm. The computed magnitude showed an estimate of the long-term effect a change in MSL has on the geodetic vertical datum of Port Kelang tide gauge station. This will help give a new insight on the establishment of national geodetic vertical datum based on mean sea level data. Besides, this information can be used for a wide variety of climatic applications to study environmental issues related to flood and global warming in Malaysia.

  17. Short Lived Climate Pollutants cause a Long Lived Effect on Sea-level Rise: Analyzing climate metrics for sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterner, E.; Johansson, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change depends on the increase of several different atmospheric pollutants. While long term global warming will be determined mainly by carbon dioxide, warming in the next few decades will depend to a large extent on short lived climate pollutants (SLCP). Reducing emissions of SLCPs could contribute to lower the global mean surface temperature by 0.5 °C already by 2050 (Shindell et al. 2012). Furthermore, the warming effect of one of the most potent SLCPs, black carbon (BC), may have been underestimated in the past. Bond et al. (2013) presents a new best estimate of the total BC radiative forcing (RF) of 1.1 W/m2 (90 % uncertainty bounds of 0.17 to 2.1 W/m2) since the beginning of the industrial era. BC is however never emitted alone and cooling aerosols from the same sources offset a majority of this RF. In the wake of calls for mitigation of SLCPs it is important to study other aspects of the climate effect of SLCPs. One key impact of climate change is sea-level rise (SLR). In a recent study, the effect of SLCP mitigation scenarios on SLR is examined. Hu et al (2013) find a substantial effect on SLR from mitigating SLCPs sharply, reducing SLR by 22-42% by 2100. We choose a different approach focusing on emission pulses and analyse a metric based on sea level rise so as to further enlighten the SLR consequences of SLCPs. We want in particular to understand the time dynamics of SLR impacts caused by SLCPs compared to other greenhouse gases. The most commonly used physical based metrics are GWP and GTP. We propose and evaluate an additional metric: The global sea-level rise potential (GSP). The GSP is defined as the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a forcer to the sea level rise after a time horizon caused by an emissions pulse of a CO2. GSP is evaluated and compared to GWP and GTP using a set of climate forcers chosen to cover the whole scale of atmospheric perturbation life times (BC, CH4, N2O, CO2 and SF6). The study

  18. Influence of Sea Level Rise and Marsh Hypsometry on the Equilibrium Morphology of Tidal Inlets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovering, J. L.; Adams, P. N.

    2011-12-01

    As global sea level is predicted to rise between 0.18 and 1.9 meters by the end of the 21st century, it is critical to understand how the geomorphology and ecology of coastal regions worldwide will be affected for a range of sea level rise rate scenarios. Tidal inlets along sandy, passive margin coasts are sensitive to water levels, nearshore currents, and wave fields, so changes in environmental conditions in the vicinity of inlets should drive a morphologic response. Due to their importance in commercial shipping, military navigation, and recreation, an improved understanding of tidal inlet response to sea level rise will assist in future planning efforts. The widely accepted conceptual model of tidal inlet evolution predicts that, as sea level rises, salt marshes in the lagoon become drowned and converted to subtidal environments, increasing accommodation space in the back barrier basin. This conversion increases the tidal prism, inlet cross-sectional area, and ebb shoal volume. The purpose of this study is to quantify the relationship between sea level rise, the ecomorphodynamic environment of the back barrier basin, and the resulting changes in equilibrium tidal inlet morphology. Threshold values of sea level rise rate for which marsh habitats convert to subtidal environments, determined by the tidal range and suspended sediment concentration found in the back barrier basin, were developed using previously published numerical simulations and field-based observations. We paired the threshold values with Escoffier equilibrium curve calculations, in order to predict changes in tidal inlet equilibrium cross-sectional area. Halophytic vegetation that is supplied with high suspended sediment concentrations and lives in an area with a high tidal range is able to trap sediment and drive vertical accretion at a faster pace than vegetation in areas of low sediment availability and low tidal range; therefore marshes with high sediment availability and tidal range are

  19. Assessment on the Vulnerability of Mangrove Ecosystems in the Guangxi Coastal Zone under Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, S.; Ge, Z.; Zhang, L.

    2013-12-01

    Sea level rise caused by global climate change will have significant impacts on coastal zone. The mangrove ecosystems occur at the intertidal zone in tropical and subtropical coasts and are particularly sensitive to sea level rise. To study the responses of mangrove ecosystems to sea level rise, assess the impacts of sea level rise on mangrove ecosystem and formulate the feasible and practical mitigation strategies are the important prerequisites for securing the coastal ecosystems. In this research, taking the mangrove ecosystems in the coastal zone of Guangxi province, China as a case study, the potential impacts of sea level rise on the mangrove ecosystems were analyzed by adopting the SPRC (Source-Pathway- Receptor- Consequence) model. An index system for vulnerability assessment on coastal mangrove ecosystems under sea level rise was worked out, in which rate of sea level rise, subsidence/uplift rate, habitat elevation, daily inundation duration, intertidal slope and sedimentation rate were selected as the key indicators according to the IPCC definition of vulnerability, i.e. the aspects of exposure, sensitivity and adaptation. A quantitatively spatial assessment method based on the GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating the vulnerability index and grading the vulnerability. The vulnerability assessment based on the sea-level rise rates of the present trend and IPCC A1F1 scenario were performed for three sets of projections of short-term (2030s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2100s). The results showed at the present trend of sea level rise rate of 0.27 cm/a, the mangrove ecosystems in the coastal zone of Guangxi was within the EVI score of 0 in the projections of 2030s, 2050s and 2100s, respectively. As the sedimentation and land uplift could offset the rate of sea level rise and the impact of sea level rise on habitats/species of mangrove ecosystems was negligible. While at the A1F1 scenario with a sea level rise rate of 0

  20. Postglacial relative sea level change at Fildes Peninsula, King George Island (West Antarctic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. V. Polishchuk

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Analysis and integration of data obtained in our field and laboratory investigations of 2008–2012 together with results of previous paleogeographic studies were conducted to reveal parameters and factors of the post-glacial changes in the relative sea-level on the Fildes Peninsula and the King George Island. Results of dating of organic material taken from cross-sections of Quaternary deposits, data on morphology of marine landforms as well as on bottom sediments in lakes were used to construct a curve of changes in the relative sea-level.Our research has shown that the rapid rise of relative sea level in the area (since the beginning of the Holocene decelerated about 8000 years BP, achieving its maximum about 7000 years BP. This was followed by the fall of relative sea-level (the land elevation by 18–20  m in total, and it was characterized by relatively high rate of fall during periods of 6000– 5000 years BP, 4000–2500 years BP, and during the last 1500 years; the rate decreased in 5000–4000 years BP and 2500– 1600 years BP. The changes in relative sea level in this region were determined by the following factors: the eustatic component of the global changes in sea-level and, possibly, oscillations in the global sea level of another nature; local parameters of the Last glacial maximum; a course of the Peninsula deglaciation; regional physical characteristics of the Earth's crust and the mantle substances; local tectonic processes, including the isostatic rebound. Since the beginning of the Holocene up to about 7000 years BP, the main contribution to changes of the relative sea-level in this area was made by the global eustatic factor. The subsequent fall of the relative sea-level (elevation of the Peninsula surface proceeded under condition of reduced role of the eustatic factor and predominance of other factors.

  1. Assessing the global averaged sea-level budget from 2003 to 2010

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Juan; ZUO Juncheng; CHEN Meixiang; TAN Wei; YANG Yiqiu

    2013-01-01

    A global mass balance (Greenland and Antarctica ice sheet mass loss, terrestrial water storage) and differ-ent sea-level components (observed sea-level from satellite altimetry, steric sea-level from Ishii data, and ocean mass from gravity recovery and climate experiment, GRACE) are estimated, in terms of seasonal and interannual variabilities from 2003 to 2010. The results show that a detailed analysis of the GRACE time series over the time period 2003-2010 unambiguously reveals an increase in mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet and Antarctica ice sheet. The mass loss of both ice sheets accelerated at a rate of (392.8±70.0) Gt/a during 2003-2010, which contributed (1.09±0.19) mm/a to the global mean sea-level during this time. The net terrestrial water storage (TWS) trend was negative over the 8 a time span, which gave a small positive contribution of (0.25±0.12) mm/a. The interannual variability of the global mean sea-level was at least part-ly caused by year-to-year variability of land water storage. Estimating GRACE-based ice sheet mass balance and terrestrial water storage by using published estimates for melting glaciers, the results further show that the ocean mass increase since 2003 has resulted half from an enhanced contribution of the polar ice sheets, and half from the combined ice sheet and terrestrial water storage loss. Taking also into account the melt-ing of mountain glaciers (0.41 mm/a) and the small GRACE-based contribution from continental waters (0.25 mm/a), a total ocean mass contribution of (1.75±0.57) mm/a from 2003 to 2010 is found. Such a value represented 75%of the altimetry-based rate of sea-level rise over that period. The contributions to steric sea-level (i.e., ocean thermal expansion plus salinity effects) are estimated from:(1) the difference between altimetry-based sea-level and ocean mass change and (2) the latest Ishii data. The inferred steric sea-level rate from (1) (1.41 mm/a from 2003 to 2010) did not agree well with

  2. Relative sea-level change in the central Cyclades (Greece) since the Early Bronze Age

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draganits, E.

    2012-04-01

    The Aegean is a focus of important cultural achievements in Europe since the Neolithic period. The resulting abundance of archaeological remains, many of them below sea-level represent an advantageous area for the study of local relative sea-level change. We have carried out detailed mapping of Despotiko Island (SW of Antiparos) and its surrounding. Despotiko is situated almost exactly in the center of the Cyclades (as defined nowadays), more so than Delos, and therefore is very well suited for sea-level studies of the Cyclades. This beneficial location, combined with a spacious and protected bay, additionally may explain its former importance as stepping-stone in the Aegean Sea. The island is uninhabited at present, but Early Bronze Age settlement sites and graveyards as well as a large Archaic sanctuary proof its former importance. The sanctuary is situated on a gently northeast dipping slope in the northeast part of Despotiko, in range of sight of the Órmos Despotiko. Since 1997 large parts of this important sanctuary have been excavated during several excavation campaigns. Tectonically, Despotiko, Antiparos and Paros, belong to the Attic-Cycladic Crystalline of the Central Hellenides, a stack of metamorphic tectonic nappes, mainly comprising variable types of gneiss, schist, marble and amphibolite, and tectonic slices of unmetamorphosed sediments on top, separated by low-angle normal faults from the metamorphic units below. Submerged archaeological structures at the sea bottom of the Órmos Despotiko, a Classical marble inscription from the sanctuary and partly submerged agriculture trenches at the east coast Despotiko, indicate that the relative sea-level in this area was some 3 m lower during the Early Bronze Age and still more than 1 m lower during Classical time. These values of relative sea-level rise indicate a subsidence component additional to the global sea-level rise in the investigated time period. Neglecting possible vertical tectonic movements and

  3. As the sea level rises the Earth does not stand still

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, S. C.; Alizad, K.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hovenga, P. A.; Medeiros, S. C.; Passeri, D. L.; Wang, D.

    2015-12-01

    Global mean sea level rise was largely linear over the 20th century; however, according to global satellite altimetry, the rate of rise has increased from approximately 1.6 to 3.4 mm/year. It is clear that this eustatic sea level rise has been predominantly caused by thermal expansion of ocean water (i.e., it is a manifestation of an increase in the average annual global temperature). Future projections of increased global temperatures, among others, introduce additional contributions (e.g., land ice loss and changes in land water storage) resulting in higher sea level rise that can only be accommodated by accelerations in the rate of the rise. Increased temperatures lead to changes in evapotranspiration rates, precipitation rates and patterns, etc. As the sea level changes the Earth experiences many other directly or indirectly related processes (e.g., population growth and migration, local variation in subsidence, etc.). Proper assessment of the local, regional and global impacts of relative sea level rise should include as many of these linear and nonlinear processes as possible. This presentation will explain our approach to understanding the relationships between these processes and their impacts to better equip adaptation strategies and enhance coastal resiliency. References Bilskie, M. V., et al. "Dynamics of sea level rise and coastal flooding on a changing landscape." Geophys. Res. Lett., 41(3), 2014, 927-934, doi:10.1002/2013GL058759 Church, J. A. and N. J. White, "A 20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise." Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(1), 2006, L01602 Passeri, D.L., et al. "The dynamic effects of sea level rise on low-gradient coastal landscapes: a review." Earth's Future, Online, 2015. doi:10.1002/2015EF000298 Passeri, D.L., et al. "On the significance of incorporating shoreline changes for evaluating coastal hydrodynamics under sea level rise scenarios." Nat. Haz., 75 (2), 2015, 1599-1617. doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1386-y Wang, D., et al. "Climate

  4. The body weight loss during acute exposure to high-altitude hypoxia in sea level residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Ri-Li; Wood, Helen; Yang, Hui-Huang; Liu, Yi-Ning; Wang, Xiu-Juan; Babb, Tony

    2010-12-25

    Weight loss is frequently observed after acute exposure to high altitude. However, the magnitude and rate of weight loss during acute exposure to high altitude has not been clarified in a controlled prospective study. The present study was performed to evaluate weight loss at high altitude. A group of 120 male subjects [aged (32±6) years] who worked on the construction of the Golmud-Lhasa Railway at Kunlun Mountain (altitude of 4 678 m) served as volunteer subjects for this study. Eighty-five workers normally resided at sea level (sea level group) and 35 normally resided at an altitude of 2 200 m (moderate altitude group). Body weight, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference were measured in all subjects after a 7-day stay at Golmud (altitude of 2 800 m, baseline measurements). Measurements were repeated after 33-day working on Kunlun Mountain. In order to examine the daily rate of weight loss at high altitude, body weight was measured in 20 subjects from the sea level group (sea level subset group) each morning before breakfast for 33 d at Kunlun Mountain. According to guidelines established by the Lake Louise acute mountain sickness (AMS) consensus report, each subject completed an AMS self-report questionnaire two days after arriving at Kunlun Mountain. After 33-day stay at an altitude of 4 678 m, the average weight loss for the sea level group was 10.4% (range 6.5% to 29%), while the average for the moderate altitude group was 2.2% (-2% to 9.1%). The degree of weight loss (Δ weight loss) after a 33-day stay at an altitude of 4 678 m was significantly correlated with baseline body weight in the sea level group (r=0.677, P0.05). In the sea level subset group, a significant weight loss was observed within 20 d, but the weight remained stable thereafter. AMS-score at high altitude was significantly higher in the sea level group (4.69±2.48) than that in the moderate altitude group (2.97±1.38), and was significantly correlated with baseline body weight

  5. Geodesy for Evaluating the Impact of Sea Level Rise on NASA Centers and Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, L. J.; Nerem, R.; Masters, D. S.; Meertens, C. M.

    2012-12-01

    Sea level is rising in response to climate change. Currently the global mean rate is a little over 3 mm/year, but it is expected to accelerate significantly over this century. This will have a profound impact on coastal populations and infrastructure, including NASA centers and facilities. A detailed study proposed by the University of Colorado's Center for Astrodynamics Research on the impact of sea level rise on a few of NASA's most vulnerable facilities was recently funded by NASA. Individual surveys at several high-risk NASA centers will be conducted and used as case studies for a broader investigation that needs to be done for coastal infrastructure around the country. The first year of the study will include implementing and conducting a terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and GPS survey at Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral, Florida, and potentially at Wallops Flight Facility, Wallops Island, Virginia, and Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia. We will use a broad array of geodetic tools to perform this study - much of which has been developed over the last few decades by NASA and its investigators. We will use airborne lidar data and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) data to construct detailed digital elevation models (DEMs) of the facilities that we assess. We will use GPS data to assess the rate of vertical land movement at the facilities and to tie the DEM to tide gauges and other reference points. We will use satellite altimeter data from TOPEX, Jason-1, and Jason-2 to assess the sea level changes observed near these NASA facilities over the last 20 years to see if it offers clues for the future. We will also use GRACE satellite gravity observations to predict the regional changes in sea level caused by the melting of ice complexes around the world. We will use these datasets along with sea level projections from global climate models (GCMs) and semi-empirical projections to make detailed maps of sea level inundation for the years 2050 and 2100 for

  6. A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartly, Graham D.; Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Joana Fernandes, M.; Rudenko, Sergei; Carrère, Loren; Nilo García, Pablo; Cipollini, Paolo; Andersen, Ole B.; Poisson, Jean-Christophe; Mbajon Njiche, Sabrina; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2017-08-01

    Sea level is an essential climate variable (ECV) that has a direct effect on many people through inundations of coastal areas, and it is also a clear indicator of climate changes due to external forcing factors and internal climate variability. Regional patterns of sea level change inform us on ocean circulation variations in response to natural climate modes such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and anthropogenic forcing. Comparing numerical climate models to a consistent set of observations enables us to assess the performance of these models and help us to understand and predict these phenomena, and thereby alleviate some of the environmental conditions associated with them. All such studies rely on the existence of long-term consistent high-accuracy datasets of sea level. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency was established in 2010 to provide improved time series of some ECVs, including sea level, with the purpose of providing such data openly to all to enable the widest possible utilisation of such data. Now in its second phase, the Sea Level CCI project (SL_cci) merges data from nine different altimeter missions in a clear, consistent and well-documented manner, selecting the most appropriate satellite orbits and geophysical corrections in order to further reduce the error budget. This paper summarises the corrections required, the provenance of corrections and the evaluation of options that have been adopted for the recently released v2.0 dataset (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612). This information enables scientists and other users to clearly understand which corrections have been applied and their effects on the sea level dataset. The overall result of these changes is that the rate of rise of global mean sea level (GMSL) still equates to ˜ 3.2 mm yr-1 during 1992-2015, but there is now greater

  7. Mean Tide Level Data in the PSMSL Mean Sea Level Dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Andrew; Bradshaw, Elizabeth; Gordon, Kathy; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Rickards, Lesley; Tamisiea, Mark; Williams, Simon; Woodworth, Philip

    2016-04-01

    The Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) is the internationally recognised global sea level data bank for long term sea level change information from tide gauges. Established in 1933, the PSMSL continues to be responsible for the collection, publication, analysis and interpretation of sea level data. The PSMSL operates under the auspices of the International Council for Science (ICSU), is a regular member of the ICSU World Data System and is associated with the International Association for the Physical Sciences of the Oceans (IAPSO) and the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The PSMSL continues to work closely with other members of the sea level community through the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission's Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS). Currently, the PSMSL data bank holds over 67,000 station-years of monthly and annual mean sea level data from over 2250 tide gauge stations. Data from each site are quality controlled and, wherever possible, reduced to a common datum, whose stability is monitored through a network of geodetic benchmarks. PSMSL also distributes a data bank of measurements taken from in-situ ocean bottom pressure recorders. Most of the records in the main PSMSL dataset indicate mean sea level (MSL), derived from high-frequency tide gauge data, with sampling typically once per hour or higher. However, some of the older data is based on mean tide level (MTL), which is obtained from measurements taken at high and low tide only. While usually very close, MSL and MTL can occasionally differ by many centimetres, particularly in shallow water locations. As a result, care must be taken when using long sea level records that contain periods of MTL data. Previously, periods during which the values indicated MTL rather than MSL were noted in the documentation, and sometimes suggested corrections were supplied. However, these comments were easy to miss, particularly in large scale studies that used multiple stations from across

  8. Last Interglacial climate and sea-level evolution from a coupled ice sheet-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goelzer, Heiko; Huybrechts, Philippe; Loutre, Marie-France; Fichefet, Thierry

    2016-12-01

    As the most recent warm period in Earth's history with a sea-level stand higher than present, the Last Interglacial (LIG, ˜ 130 to 115 kyr BP) is often considered a prime example to study the impact of a warmer climate on the two polar ice sheets remaining today. Here we simulate the Last Interglacial climate, ice sheet, and sea-level evolution with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM v.1.3, which includes dynamic and fully coupled components representing the atmosphere, the ocean and sea ice, the terrestrial biosphere, and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. In this setup, sea-level evolution and climate-ice sheet interactions are modelled in a consistent framework.Surface mass balance change governed by changes in surface meltwater runoff is the dominant forcing for the Greenland ice sheet, which shows a peak sea-level contribution of 1.4 m at 123 kyr BP in the reference experiment. Our results indicate that ice sheet-climate feedbacks play an important role to amplify climate and sea-level changes in the Northern Hemisphere. The sensitivity of the Greenland ice sheet to surface temperature changes considerably increases when interactive albedo changes are considered. Southern Hemisphere polar and sub-polar ocean warming is limited throughout the Last Interglacial, and surface and sub-shelf melting exerts only a minor control on the Antarctic sea-level contribution with a peak of 4.4 m at 125 kyr BP. Retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet at the onset of the LIG is mainly forced by rising sea level and to a lesser extent by reduced ice shelf viscosity as the surface temperature increases. Global sea level shows a peak of 5.3 m at 124.5 kyr BP, which includes a minor contribution of 0.35 m from oceanic thermal expansion. Neither the individual contributions nor the total modelled sea-level stand show fast multi-millennial timescale variations as indicated by some reconstructions.

  9. Tidal marsh susceptibility to sea-level rise: importance of local-scale models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Elliott-Fisk, Deborah L.; Takekawa, John Y.

    2015-01-01

    Increasing concern over sea-level rise impacts to coastal tidal marsh ecosystems has led to modeling efforts to anticipate outcomes for resource management decision making. Few studies on the Pacific coast of North America have modeled sea-level rise marsh susceptibility at a scale relevant to local wildlife populations and plant communities. Here, we use a novel approach in developing an empirical sea-level rise ecological response model that can be applied to key management questions. Calculated elevation change over 13 y for a 324-ha portion of San Pablo Bay National Wildlife Refuge, California, USA, was used to represent local accretion and subsidence processes. Next, we coupled detailed plant community and elevation surveys with measured rates of inundation frequency to model marsh state changes to 2100. By grouping plant communities into low, mid, and high marsh habitats, we were able to assess wildlife species vulnerability and to better understand outcomes for habitat resiliency. Starting study-site conditions were comprised of 78% (253-ha) high marsh, 7% (30-ha) mid marsh, and 4% (18-ha) low marsh habitats, dominated by pickleweed Sarcocornia pacifica and cordgrass Spartina spp. Only under the low sea-level rise scenario (44 cm by 2100) did our models show persistence of some marsh habitats to 2100, with the area dominated by low marsh habitats. Under mid (93 cm by 2100) and high sea-level rise scenarios (166 cm by 2100), most mid and high marsh habitat was lost by 2070, with only 15% (65 ha) remaining, and a complete loss of these habitats by 2080. Low marsh habitat increased temporarily under all three sea-level rise scenarios, with the peak (286 ha) in 2070, adding habitat for the endemic endangered California Ridgway’s rail Rallus obsoletus obsoletus. Under mid and high sea-level rise scenarios, an almost complete conversion to mudflat occurred, with most of the area below mean sea level. Our modeling assumed no marsh migration upslope due to human

  10. Monitoring Sea Level in the Coastal Zone with Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipollini, Paolo; Calafat, Francisco M.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Melet, Angelique; Prandi, Pierre

    2016-11-01

    We examine the issue of sustained measurements of sea level in the coastal zone, first by summarizing the long-term observations from tide gauges, then showing how those are now complemented by improved satellite altimetry products in the coastal ocean. We present some of the progresses in coastal altimetry, both from dedicated reprocessing of the radar waveforms and from the development of improved corrections for the atmospheric effects. This trend towards better altimetric data at the coast comes also from technological innovations such as Ka-band altimetry and SAR altimetry, and we discuss the advantages deriving from the AltiKa Ka-band altimeter and the SIRAL altimeter on CryoSat-2 that can be operated in SAR mode. A case study along the UK coast demonstrates the good agreement between coastal altimetry and tide gauge observations, with root mean square differences as low as 4 cm at many stations, allowing the characterization of the annual cycle of sea level along the UK coasts. Finally, we examine the evolution of the sea level trend from the open to the coastal ocean along the western coast of Africa, comparing standard and coastally improved products. Different products give different sea level trend profiles, so the recommendation is that additional efforts are needed to study sea level trends in the coastal zone from past and present satellite altimeters. Further improvements are expected from more refined processing and screening of data, but in particular from the constant improvements in the geophysical corrections.

  11. How sea level rise affects sedimentation, plant growth, and carbon accumulation on coastal salt marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mudd, S. M.; Howell, S. M.; Morris, J. T.

    2009-12-01

    The rate of accretion on coastal salt marshes depends on feedbacks between flow, macrophyte growth, and sedimentation. Under favourable conditions, marsh accretion rates will keep pace with the local rate of sea level rise. Marsh accretion is driven by both organic and inorganic sedimentation; mineral rich marshes will need less organic sedimentation to keep pace with sea level rise. Here we use a numerical model of marsh accretion, calibrated by sediment cores, to explore the relationship between sea level rise and carbon sequestration on salt marshes in the face of differing supplies of inorganic sediment. The model predicts that changes in carbon storage resulting from changing sediment supply or sea-level rise are strongly dependant on the background sediment supply: if inorganic sediment supply is reduced in an already sediment poor marsh the storage of organic carbon will increase to a far greater extent than in a sediment-rich marsh, provided that the rate of sea-level rise does not exceed a threshold. These results imply that altering sediment supply to estuaries (e.g., by damming upstream rivers or altering littoral sediment transport) could lead to significant changes in the carbon budgets of coastal salt marshes.

  12. SEA LEVEL CHANGES FROM THE I TO THE XIII CENTURIES AND THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yossi Mart

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Correlation between archaeological ruins and geological observations show that the region of the port city of Caesarea in central Israel has been stable during the last 2000 years. This stability, and the low range of the diurnal tidal variations of sea level, attributes global climatic significance to the reconstructions of various sea levels during several clear archaeological time-frames. It seems that while 2000 years ago sea level, and therefore also climate, was similar to the present one. Sea level was higher in the VII–VIII Centuries AD, and the climate was probably warmer, and sea level was lower, and the climate colder, in the ХII–ХIII Centuries AD. Consequently it is suggested that the presumption that the present global climatic warming in anthropogenic requires strong supporting evidence. On the other hand, the link between recent heavy damages to coral reefs and the anthropogenic activities that caused the rise in atmospheric CO2 content seems quite likely.

  13. Geologic effects and coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise, erosion, and storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, S.J.; Gutierrez, B.T.; Thieler, E.R.; Pendleton, E.

    2008-01-01

    A combination of natural and human factors are driving coastal change and making coastal regions and populations increasingly vulnerable. Sea level, a major agent of coastal erosion, has varied greatly from -120 m below present during glacial period low-stands to + 4 to 6 m above present during interglacial warm periods. Geologic and tide gauge data show that global sea level has risen about 12 to 15 cm during the past century with satellite measurements indicating an acceleration since the early 1990s due to thermal expansion and ice-sheet melting. Land subsidence due to tectonic forces and sediment compaction in regions like the mid-Atlantic and Louisiana increase the rate of relative sea-level rise to 40 cm to 100 cm per century. Sea- level rise is predicted to accelerate significantly in the near future due to climate change, resulting in pervasive impacts to coastal regions and putting populations increasingly at risk. The full implications of climate change for coastal systems need to be understood better and long-term plans are needed to manage coasts in order to protect natural resources and mitigate the effects of sea-level rise and increased storms on human infrastructure. Copyright ASCE 2008.

  14. Relative Sea Level Trends Along the Coast of the Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, M.; Calmant, S.; Papa, F.; Delebecque, C.; Islam, A. S.; Shum, C. K.

    2016-12-01

    In the coastal belt of the Bay of Bengal, the sea level rise is one of a major threat, linked to climate change, which drastically affects the livelihoods of millions of people. A comprehensive understanding of sea level trends and its variability in this region is therefore crucial and should help to anticipate the impacts of climate change and implement adaptation strategies. This region is bordered mostly by Bangladesh, India, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand. Here, we revisit the sea level changes in the Bay of Bengal region from tide gauges and satellite altimetry over the period 1993-2014. The 23 monthly mean tide gauge records, used in this study, are retrieved from PSMSL (15 records) and supplemented with Bangladeshi observations (8 records). We show that, over the satellite altimetry era, the sea level interannual/decadal variability is mainly due to ocean thermal expansion variability driven by IOD/ENSO events and their low frequency modulation. We focus on relative sea level rise at major coastal cities and try to separate the climatic signal (long term trend plus interannual/decadal variability) from local effects, in particular vertical land movements. Results from GPS are analysed where available. When no such data exist, vertical land movements are deduced from the combined use of tide gauge and altimetry data. While the analysis is performed over the whole region, a particular attention is given to the low-lyingBangladesh's coastal area.

  15. Sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean observed by satellite altimetry

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    P. Prandi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available We investigate sea level variability in the Arctic Ocean from observations. Variability estimates are derived both at the basin scale and on smaller local spatial scales. The periods of the signals studied vary from high frequency (intra-annual to long term trends. We also investigate the mechanisms responsible for the observed variability. Different data types are used, the main one being a recent reprocessing of satellite altimetry data in the Arctic Ocean.

    Satellite altimetry data is compared to tide gauges measurements, steric sea level derived from temperature and salinity fields and GRACE ocean mass estimates. We establish a consistent regional sea level budget over the GRACE availability era (2003–2009 showing that the sea level drop observed by altimetry over this period is driven by ocean mass loss rather than steric effects. The comparison of altimetry and tide gauges time series show that the two techniques are in good agreement regarding sea level trends. Coastal areas of high variability in the altimetry record are also consistent with tide gauges records. An EOF analysis of September mean altimetry fields allows identifying two regions of wind driven variability in the Arctic Ocean: the Beaufort Gyre region and the coastal European and Russian Arctic. Such patterns are related to atmospheric regimes through the Arctic Oscillation and Dipole Anomaly.

  16. Quantitative analysis of Paratethys sea level change during the Messinian Salinity Crisis

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    de la Vara, Alba; Meijer, Paul; van Baak, Christiaan; Marzocchi, Alice; Grothe, Arjen

    2016-04-01

    At the time of the Messinian Salinity Crisis in the Mediterranean Sea (i.e., the Pontian stage of the Paratethys), the Paratethys sea level dropped also. Evidence found in the sedimentary record of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea has been interpreted to indicate that a sea level fall occurred between 5.6 and 5.5 Ma. Estimates for the magnitude of the fall range between tens of meters to more than 1500 m. The purpose of this study is to provide quantitative insight into the sensitivity of the water level of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea to the hydrologic budget, for the case that the Paratethys is disconnected from the Mediterranean. Using a Late Miocene bathymetry based on a palaeographic map by Popov et al. (2004) we quantify the fall in sea level, the mean salinity, and the time to reach equilibrium for a wide range of negative hydrologic budgets. By combining our results with (i) estimates derived from a recent global Late Miocene climate simulation and (ii) reconstructed basin salinities, we are able to rule out a drop in sea level of the order of 1000 m in the Caspian Sea during this time period. In the Black Sea, however, such a large sea level fall cannot be fully discarded.

  17. US power plant sites at risk of future sea-level rise

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    Bierkandt, R.; Auffhammer, M.; Levermann, A.

    2015-12-01

    Unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions may increase global mean sea-level by about 1 meter during this century. Such elevation of the mean sea-level enhances the risk of flooding of coastal areas. We compute the power capacity that is currently out-of-reach of a 100-year coastal flooding but will be exposed to such a flood by the end of the century for different US states, if no adaptation measures are taken. The additional exposed capacity varies strongly among states. For Delaware it is 80% of the mean generated power load. For New York this number is 63% and for Florida 43%. The capacity that needs additional protection compared to today increases by more than 250% for Texas, 90% for Florida and 70% for New York. Current development in power plant building points towards a reduced future exposure to sea-level rise: proposed and planned power plants are less exposed than those which are currently operating. However, power plants that have been retired or canceled were less exposed than those operating at present. If sea-level rise is properly accounted for in future planning, an adaptation to sea-level rise may be costly but possible.

  18. Calculating gravitationally self-consistent sea level changes driven by dynamic topography

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    Austermann, J.; Mitrovica, J. X.

    2015-12-01

    We present a generalized formalism for computing gravitationally self-consistent sea level changes driven by the combined effects of dynamic topography, geoid perturbations due to mantle convection, ice mass fluctuations and sediment redistribution on a deforming Earth. Our mathematical treatment conserves mass of the surface (ice plus ocean) load and the solid Earth. Moreover, it takes precise account of shoreline migration and the associated ocean loading. The new formalism avoids a variety of approximations adopted in previous models of sea level change driven by dynamic topography, including the assumption that a spatially fixed isostatic amplification of `air-loaded' dynamic topography accurately accounts for ocean loading effects. While our approach is valid for Earth models of arbitrary complexity, we present numerical results for a set of simple cases in which a pattern of dynamic topography is imposed, the response to surface mass loading assumes that Earth structure varies only with depth and that isostatic equilibrium is maintained at all times. These calculations, involving fluid Love number theory, indicate that the largest errors in previous predictions of sea level change driven by dynamic topography occur in regions of shoreline migration, and thus in the vicinity of most geological markers of ancient sea level. We conclude that a gravitationally self-consistent treatment of long-term sea level change is necessary in any effort to use such geological markers to estimate ancient ice volumes.

  19. Effects of long-term variability on projections of twenty-first century dynamic sea level

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    Bordbar, Mohammad H.; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2015-04-01

    Sea-level rise is one of the most pressing aspects of anthropogenic global warming with far-reaching consequences for coastal societies. However, sea-level rise did and will strongly vary from coast to coast. Here we investigate the long-term internal variability effects on centennial projections of dynamic sea level (DSL), the local departure from the globally averaged sea level. A large ensemble of global warming integrations has been conducted with a climate model, where each realization was forced by identical CO2 increase but started from different atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions. In large parts of the mid- and high latitudes, the ensemble spread of the projected centennial DSL trends is of the same order of magnitude as the globally averaged steric sea-level rise, suggesting that internal variability cannot be ignored when assessing twenty-first-century DSL trends. The ensemble spread is considerably reduced in the mid- to high latitudes when only the atmospheric initial conditions differ while keeping the oceanic initial state identical; indicating that centennial DSL projections are strongly dependent on ocean initial conditions.

  20. Monitoring Sea Level in the Coastal Zone with Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cipollini, Paolo; Calafat, Francisco M.; Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Melet, Angelique; Prandi, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    We examine the issue of sustained measurements of sea level in the coastal zone, first by summarizing the long-term observations from tide gauges, then showing how those are now complemented by improved satellite altimetry products in the coastal ocean. We present some of the progresses in coastal altimetry, both from dedicated reprocessing of the radar waveforms and from the development of improved corrections for the atmospheric effects. This trend towards better altimetric data at the coast comes also from technological innovations such as Ka-band altimetry and SAR altimetry, and we discuss the advantages deriving from the AltiKa Ka-band altimeter and the SIRAL altimeter on CryoSat-2 that can be operated in SAR mode. A case study along the UK coast demonstrates the good agreement between coastal altimetry and tide gauge observations, with root mean square differences as low as 4 cm at many stations, allowing the characterization of the annual cycle of sea level along the UK coasts. Finally, we examine the evolution of the sea level trend from the open to the coastal ocean along the western coast of Africa, comparing standard and coastally improved products. Different products give different sea level trend profiles, so the recommendation is that additional efforts are needed to study sea level trends in the coastal zone from past and present satellite altimeters. Further improvements are expected from more refined processing and screening of data, but in particular from the constant improvements in the geophysical corrections.