WorldWideScience

Sample records for repetitive flood loss

  1. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Repetitive Flood Claims (RFC) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Repetitive Flood Claims (RFC). The...

  2. Flood Loss Model for Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punčochář, P.; Podlaha, A.

    2012-04-01

    A new flood model for Austria quantifying fluvial flood losses based on probabilistic event set developed by Impact Forecasting (Aon Benfield's model development centre) was released in June 2011. It was successfully validated with two serious past flood events - August 2002 and August 2005. The model is based on 10 meters cell size digital terrain model with 1cm vertical step and uses daily mean flows from 548 gauge stations of series of average length ~ 60 years. The even set is based on monthly maxima flows correlation, generating 12 stochastic events per year and allows to calculate annual and occurrence exceedance probability loss estimates. The model contains flood extents for more than 24,000 km of modelled river network compatible with HORA project (HOchwasserRisikoflächen Austria) for design flows ranging from 2 to 10,000 years. Model is primarily constructed to work with postal level resolution insurance data reducing positional uncertainty by weighting over more than 2.5 millions address points from Austria Post's ACGeo database. Countrywide flood protections were provided by the Austrian Ministry of Environment. The model was successfully tested with property portfolios of 8 global and local insurance companies and was also successfully validated with August 2002 and August 2005 past events evaluating their return period on the probabilistic simulation basis.

  3. Flood Risk Analysis and Flood Potential Losses Assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The heavy floods in the Taihu Basin showed increasing trend in recent years. In thiswork, a typical area in the northern Taihu Basin was selected for flood risk analysis and potentialflood losses assessment. Human activities have strong impact on the study area' s flood situation (asaffected by the polders built, deforestation, population increase, urbanization, etc. ), and havemade water level higher, flood duration shorter, and flood peaks sharper. Five years of differentflood return periods [(1970), 5 (1962), 10 (1987), 20 (1954), 50 (1991)] were used to cal-culate the potential flood risk area and its losses. The potential flood risk map, economic losses,and flood-impacted population were also calculated. The study's main conclusions are: 1 ) Humanactivities have strongly changed the natural flood situation in the study area, increasing runoff andflooding; 2) The flood risk area is closely related with the precipitation center; 3) Polder construc-tion has successfully protected land from flood, shortened the flood duration, and elevated waterlevel in rivers outside the polders; 4) Economic and social development have caused flood losses toincrease in recent years.

  4. FEMA Hazard Mitigation Assistance Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL) Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — This dataset contains closed and obligated projects funded under the following Hazard Mitigation Assistance (HMA) grant programs: Severe Repetitive Loss (SRL). The...

  5. Future flood losses in major coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stephane; Green, Colin; Nicholls, Robert J.; Corfee-Morlot, Jan

    2013-09-01

    Flood exposure is increasing in coastal cities owing to growing populations and assets, the changing climate, and subsidence. Here we provide a quantification of present and future flood losses in the 136 largest coastal cities. Using a new database of urban protection and different assumptions on adaptation, we account for existing and future flood defences. Average global flood losses in 2005 are estimated to be approximately US$6billion per year, increasing to US$52billion by 2050 with projected socio-economic change alone. With climate change and subsidence, present protection will need to be upgraded to avoid unacceptable losses of US$1trillion or more per year. Even if adaptation investments maintain constant flood probability, subsidence and sea-level rise will increase global flood losses to US$60-63billion per year in 2050. To maintain present flood risk, adaptation will need to reduce flood probabilities below present values. In this case, the magnitude of losses when floods do occur would increase, often by more than 50%, making it critical to also prepare for larger disasters than we experience today. The analysis identifies the cities that seem most vulnerable to these trends, that is, where the largest increase in losses can be expected.

  6. Probabilistic, meso-scale flood loss modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Schröter, Kai; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk analyses are an important basis for decisions on flood risk management and adaptation. However, such analyses are associated with significant uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention during the last years, they are still not standard practice for flood risk assessments and even more for flood loss modelling. State of the art in flood loss modelling is still the use of simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel probabilistic, multi-variate flood loss models have been developed and validated on the micro-scale using a data-mining approach, namely bagging decision trees (Merz et al. 2013). In this presentation we demonstrate and evaluate the upscaling of the approach to the meso-scale, namely on the basis of land-use units. The model is applied in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany (Botto et al. submitted). The application of bagging decision tree based loss models provide a probability distribution of estimated loss per municipality. Validation is undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with eight deterministic loss models including stage-damage functions as well as multi-variate models. On the other hand the results are compared with official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB). The results show, that uncertainties of loss estimation remain high. Thus, the significant advantage of this probabilistic flood loss estimation approach is that it inherently provides quantitative information about the uncertainty of the prediction. References: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Botto A, Kreibich H, Merz B, Schröter K (submitted) Probabilistic, multi-variable flood loss modelling on the meso-scale with BT-FLEMO. Risk Analysis.

  7. Unexpected flood loss correlations across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Naomi; Boyd, Jessica

    2017-04-01

    Floods don't observe country borders, as highlighted by major events across Europe that resulted in heavy economic and insured losses in 1999, 2002, 2009 and 2013. Flood loss correlations between some countries occur along multi-country river systems or between neighbouring nations affected by the same weather systems. However, correlations are not so obvious and whilst flooding in multiple locations across Europe may appear independent, for a re/insurer providing cover across the continent, these unexpected correlations can lead to high loss accumulations. A consistent, continental-scale method that allows quantification and comparison of losses, and identifies correlations in loss between European countries is therefore essential. A probabilistic model for European river flooding was developed that allows estimation of potential losses to pan-European property portfolios. By combining flood hazard and exposure information in a catastrophe modelling platform, we can consider correlations between river basins across Europe rather than being restricted to country boundaries. A key feature of the model is its statistical event set based on extreme value theory. Using historical river flow data, the event set captures spatial and temporal patterns of flooding across Europe and simulates thousands of events representing a full range of possible scenarios. Some known correlations were identified, such as between neighbouring Belgium and Luxembourg where 28% of events that affect either country produce a loss in both. However, our model identified some unexpected correlations including between Austria and Poland, and Poland and France, which are geographically distant. These correlations in flood loss may be missed by traditional methods and are key for re/insurers with risks in multiple countries. The model also identified that 46% of European river flood events affect more than one country. For more extreme events with a return period higher than 200 years, all events

  8. Flooding in ephemeral streams: incorporating transmission losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stream flow in semiarid lands commonly occurs as a form of flash floods in dry ephemeral stream beds. The goal of this research is to couple hydrological and hydraulic models treats channel transmission losses and test the methodology in the USDA-ARS Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed (WGEW). For h...

  9. Nitrogen Losses from Flooded Rice Field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    A field microplot experiment was conducted during the tillering stage of paddy rice to investigate nitrogen (N) losses from flooded rice fields following fertilizer application. After application of ammonium bicarbonate,most of nitrogen in the floodwater was present as NHq-N and its concentration varied widely with time.Concentrations of both NO3-N and NO2-N in the floodwater were low due to the weakened nitrification.Under flooded anaerobic reducing conditions, soil solution concentrations of NO3-N and NH4-N were not high, ranging from 0.6 mg L- 1 to 4.8 mg L-1, and decreased with soil depth. However, the groundwater was still contaminated with NO3-N and NH4-N. Rainfall simulation tests showed that the N losses via runoff in rice fields were closely related to the time intervals between fertilizer applications and rainfall events. When a large rain fell for a short period after fertilizer application, the N losses via runoff could be large, which could have a considerable effect on surface water quality. Both irrigation and N fertilizer application must be controlled and managed with great care to minimize N losses via runoff from agricultural land.

  10. Flood protection diversification to reduce probabilities of extreme losses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qian; Lambert, James H; Karvetski, Christopher W; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

    2012-11-01

    Recent catastrophic losses because of floods require developing resilient approaches to flood risk protection. This article assesses how diversification of a system of coastal protections might decrease the probabilities of extreme flood losses. The study compares the performance of portfolios each consisting of four types of flood protection assets in a large region of dike rings. A parametric analysis suggests conditions in which diversifications of the types of included flood protection assets decrease extreme flood losses. Increased return periods of extreme losses are associated with portfolios where the asset types have low correlations of economic risk. The effort highlights the importance of understanding correlations across asset types in planning for large-scale flood protection. It allows explicit integration of climate change scenarios in developing flood mitigation strategy.

  11. Predicting coastal flooding and wetland loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    1997-01-01

    The southeastern coastal region encompasses vast areas of wetland habitat important to wildlife and other economically valuable natural resources. Located on the interface between sea and land, these wetland habitats are affected by both sea-level rise and hurricanes, and possibly by hydroperiod associated with regional climatic shifts. Increased sea level is expected to accompany global warming because of higher sea temperatures and ice melt. To help determine the effects of sea-level rise on these wetlands, USGS scientists created computer models of coastal flooding and wetland loss.

  12. Flood loss modelling with FLF-IT: a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasanzadeh Nafari, Roozbeh; Amadio, Mattia; Ngo, Tuan; Mysiak, Jaroslav

    2017-07-01

    The damage triggered by different flood events costs the Italian economy millions of euros each year. This cost is likely to increase in the future due to climate variability and economic development. In order to avoid or reduce such significant financial losses, risk management requires tools which can provide a reliable estimate of potential flood impacts across the country. Flood loss functions are an internationally accepted method for estimating physical flood damage in urban areas. In this study, we derived a new flood loss function for Italian residential structures (FLF-IT), on the basis of empirical damage data collected from a recent flood event in the region of Emilia-Romagna. The function was developed based on a new Australian approach (FLFA), which represents the confidence limits that exist around the parameterized functional depth-damage relationship. After model calibration, the performance of the model was validated for the prediction of loss ratios and absolute damage values. It was also contrasted with an uncalibrated relative model with frequent usage in Europe. In this regard, a three-fold cross-validation procedure was carried out over the empirical sample to measure the range of uncertainty from the actual damage data. The predictive capability has also been studied for some sub-classes of water depth. The validation procedure shows that the newly derived function performs well (no bias and only 10 % mean absolute error), especially when the water depth is high. Results of these validation tests illustrate the importance of model calibration. The advantages of the FLF-IT model over other Italian models include calibration with empirical data, consideration of the epistemic uncertainty of data, and the ability to change parameters based on building practices across Italy.

  13. Estimating Agricultural Losses using Flood Modeling for Rural Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhadi Nur Atirah

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is the most significant natural hazard in Malaysia in terms of population affected, frequency, flood extent, flood duration and social economic damage. Flooding causes loss of lives, injuries, property damage and leave some economic damage to the country especially when it occurs in a rural area where the main income is dependent on agricultural area. This study focused on flooding in oil palm plantations, rubber plantations and fruits and vegetables area. InfoWorks ICM was used to develop a flood model to study the impact of flooding and to mitigate the floods using a retention pond. Later, Geographical Information System (GIS together with the flood model were used for the analysis on flood damage assessment and management of flood risk. The estimated total damage for three different flood event; 10 ARI, 50 ARI and 100 ARI involved millions of ringgits. In reducing the flood impact along the Selangor River, retention pond was suggested, modeled and tested. By constructing retention pond, flood extents in agricultural area were reduced significantly by 60.49% for 10 ARI, 45.39% for 50 ARI and 46.54% for 100 ARI.

  14. Flood loss assessment in Can Tho City, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, T. C.; Kreibich, H.

    2012-04-01

    Floods are recurring events in the Lower Mekong Basin resulting in loss of life and property, causing damage to agriculture and rural infrastructure, and disrupting social and economic activities. Flood management and mitigation has become a priority issue at the national and regional levels. Besides, it is expected that large areas of the Mekong delta, the Red River delta and the central coast will be flooded by sea-level rise due to climate change. Can Tho City is ranked under the five most flood-tide-influenced cities of Vietnam. It is the biggest city in the Mekong delta and it is located near the Hau river. Like other region of the Mekong delta, Can Tho suffers due to floods from upstream and flood tides from the sea. In the flood season large rural areas of the city are flooded, particularly during tidal days. Flood risk management policy includes preparative measures for living with floods and to minimise the damage caused by floods as well as to take advantage of floods for sustainable development. An intensive literature review, including administrative reports as well as expert interviews have been undertaken to gain more insight into flood characteristics, their consequences and risk mitigation. Therefore, flood damaging processes and trends have been reviewed for Can Tho City and the Mekong Basin in Vietnam. Additionally, suitable flood damage estimation methodologies have been collected as important input for flood risk analyses. On this basis it has been investigated which flood risk mitigation and management strategies promise to be effective in Can Tho City, Vietnam.

  15. Toward economic flood loss characterization via hazard simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Cunha, Luciana K.; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Smith, James A.

    2016-08-01

    Among all natural disasters, floods have historically been the primary cause of human and economic losses around the world. Improving flood risk management requires a multi-scale characterization of the hazard and associated losses—the flood loss footprint. But this is typically not available in a precise and timely manner, yet. To overcome this challenge, we propose a novel and multidisciplinary approach which relies on a computationally efficient hydrological model that simulates streamflow for scales ranging from small creeks to large rivers. We adopt a normalized index, the flood peak ratio (FPR), to characterize flood magnitude across multiple spatial scales. The simulated FPR is then shown to be a key statistical driver for associated economic flood losses represented by the number of insurance claims. Importantly, because it is based on a simulation procedure that utilizes generally readily available physically-based data, our flood simulation approach has the potential to be broadly utilized, even for ungauged and poorly gauged basins, thus providing the necessary information for public and private sector actors to effectively reduce flood losses and save lives.

  16. Extreme Storm Surges and Coastal Flooding: Intangible Flood Losses in Integrated Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.R. Dassanayake

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available German coasts are often affected by extreme storm surges which have already led to major damages along the coastline in the past. The joint research project “XtremRisK” was initiated with the main objective of enhancing the knowledge with respect to the uncertainties of extreme storm surge predictions as well as quantifying exemplarily the flood risk under current conditions and future climate scenarios for two pilot sites in Germany: Sylt Island representative for an open coast and Hamburg for an estuarine urban area. Flood risk is generally determined by the product of the flooding probability and the possible losses associated with the flood event. Flood losses are categorized as tangible and intangible depending on whether or not the losses can be assessed in monetary values. Up to date, intangible loses are not or only partially incorporated in flood risk analysis due to the lack of appropriate evaluation and integration methodologies. This study focuses on developing methodologies for the evaluation of intangible losses due to flooding and for their integration with tangible losses in flood risk analysis

  17. Loss of life in flood events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Špitalar, Maruša

    2013-04-01

    Natural disasters per se give a negative connotation. They are destructive to material elements in a space, nature itself and represent a threat to peoples' lives and health. Floods, especially flash floods due to its power and happening suddenly cause extensive damage. Hence, they are hard to predict and are characterized with violent movement, lots of lives are lost. Floods are among natural hazards the one causing the highest number of fatalities. Having said that very important aspects are humans' vulnerability, risk perception, their behavior when confronted with hazardous situations and on the other hand issues related to adequate warning signs and canals of communication. It is very important to take into consideration this segments also and not mainly just structural measures. However the aim of this paper is to emphasis mainly the social aspects of floods. It consists of two main parts. First one refers to mans' vulnerability, risk perception when it comes to danger caused by rising waters and how does culture influences peoples' response and reaction to flood causalities. The second part consists of data about detailed information on circumstances of death that have been collected from several different sources from several EU countries. There has been also available information on the age and gender of people who lost lives in flood events. With gender males dominated among death people since tend to risk more in risky situations. There has been also defined a vulnerable age group among flood fatalities. Analysis of circumstance of death enabled us to define risky groups that are very important for flood managers. Further on this is very beneficial also for risk prevention, early warning systems and creating the best canals in order to information about upcoming danger would successfully reach people at hazardous areas and also for the others to avoid them.

  18. Delivering integrated HAZUS-MH flood loss analyses and flood inundation maps over the Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearn,, Paul P.; Longenecker, Herbert E.; Aguinaldo, John J.; Rahav, Ami N.

    2013-01-01

    Catastrophic flooding is responsible for more loss of life and damages to property than any other natural hazard. Recently developed flood inundation mapping technologies make it possible to view the extent and depth of flooding on the land surface over the Internet; however, by themselves these technologies are unable to provide estimates of losses to property and infrastructure. The Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA's) HAZUS-MH software is extensively used to conduct flood loss analyses in the United States, providing a nationwide database of population and infrastructure at risk. Unfortunately, HAZUS-MH requires a dedicated Geographic Information System (GIS) workstation and a trained operator, and analyses are not adapted for convenient delivery over the Web. This article describes a cooperative effort by the US Geological Survey (USGS) and FEMA to make HAZUS-MH output GIS and Web compatible and to integrate these data with digital flood inundation maps in USGS’s newly developed Inundation Mapping Web Portal. By running the computationally intensive HAZUS-MH flood analyses offline and converting the output to a Web-GIS compatible format, detailed estimates of flood losses can now be delivered to anyone with Internet access, thus dramatically increasing the availability of these forecasts to local emergency planners and first responders.

  19. Flash Flooding - Ways That Science and Adaptation Reduce Losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruntfest, E.

    2014-12-01

    Flash flood vulnerability is increasing. Predictability is more difficult as more flooding results after wildfires destroy hillside vegetation. Recent extreme events have occurred outside of seasonal norms with well beyond expected precipitation rates, and with unusual storm behavior where precipitation rates increase at the end of a storm. Engineers, social scientists, physical scientists, planners, emergency managers and others must collaborate in new ways to keep losses from rising. For example improved detection using cameras and gages must be complemented by understanding why people drive through flooded roads and what can be done to reduce the number of people on flooded roadways. Case studies of successful collaborations will be provided along with discussion of challenges and opportunities for expanding the innovative flash flood risk reduction strategies.

  20. Opportunities of probabilistic flood loss models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Kreibich, Heidi; Lüdtke, Stefan; Vogel, Kristin; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. However, reliable flood damage models are a prerequisite for the practical usefulness of the model results. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of sharpness of the predictions the reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The comparison of the uni-variable Stage damage function and the multivariable model approach emphasises the importance to quantify predictive uncertainty. With each explanatory variable, the multi-variable model reveals an additional source of uncertainty. However, the predictive performance in terms of precision (mbe), accuracy (mae) and reliability (HR) is clearly improved

  1. Flood Loss Models and Risk Analysis for Private Households in Can Tho City, Vietnam

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Do Thi Chinh; Nguyen Viet Dung; Animesh K Gain; Heidi Kreibich

    2017-01-01

    .... To improve flood risk analyses for Vietnam, this study presents novel multi-variable flood loss models for residential buildings and contents and demonstrates their application in a flood risk...

  2. Flood risk and insurance loss potential in the Thames Gateway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eldridge, J.; Horn, D.

    2009-04-01

    The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, is an area of redevelopment located in the South East of England, with Government plans to create up to 160,000 new homes and 180,000 new jobs by 2016. Although the new development is intended to contribute £12bn annually to the economy, the potential flood risk is high, with much of the area situated on Thames tidal floodplain and vulnerable to both storm surges and peak river flows. This poses significant hazard to those inhabiting the area and has raised concern amongst the UK insurance industry, who would be liable for significant financial claims if a large flood event were to occur, particularly with respect to the number of new homes and businesses being built in flood risk areas. Flood risk and the potential damage to both lives and assets in vulnerable areas have gained substantial recognition, in light of recent flooding events, from both governmental agencies and in the public's awareness of flood hazard. This has resulted in a change in UK policy with planning policy for flood risk (PPS25, Planning Policy Statement 25) adopting a more strategic approach to development, as well as a new Flooding and Water Bill which is due for consultation in 2009. The Government and the Association of British Insurers, who represent the UK insurance industry, have also recently changed their Statement of Principles which guides provision of flood insurance in the future. This PhD research project aims to quantify flood risk in the Thames Gateway area with a view to evaluating the insurance loss potential under different insurance and planning scenarios. Using current sources of inundation extent, and incorporating varying insurance penetration rates and degrees of adoption of planning policy and guidance, it focuses on estimating flood risk under these different scenarios. This presentation introduces the development of the project and the theory and methodology which will be used to address the

  3. Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures -- lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Building houses in inundation areas is always a risk, since absolute flood protection is impossible. Where settlements already exist, flood damage must be kept as small as possible. Suitable means are precautionary measures such as elevated building configuration or flood adapted use. However, data about the effects of such measures are rare, and consequently, the efficiency of different precautionary measures is unclear. To improve the knowledge about efficient precautionary measures, approximately 1200 private households, which were affected by the 2002 flood at the river Elbe and its tributaries, were interviewed about the flood damage of their buildings and contents as well as about their precautionary measures. The affected households had little flood experience, i.e. only 15% had experienced a flood before. 59% of the households stated that they did not know, that they live in a flood prone area. Thus, people were not well prepared, e.g. just 11% had used and furnished their house in a flood adapted way and only 6% had a flood adapted building structure. Building precautionary measures are mainly effective in areas with frequent small floods. But also during the extreme flood event in 2002 building measures reduced the flood loss. From the six different building precautionary measures under study, flood adapted use and adapted interior fitting were the most effective ones. They reduced the damage ratio for buildings by 46% and 53%, respectively. The damage ratio for contents was reduced by 48% due to flood adapted use and by 53% due to flood adapted interior fitting. The 2002 flood motivated a relatively large number of people to implement private precautionary measures, but still much more could be done. Hence, to further reduce flood losses, people's motivation to invest in precaution should be improved. More information campaigns and financial incentives should be issued to encourage precautionary measures.

  4. Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in

  5. Low-loss waveguides fabricated in BK7 glass by high repetition rate femtosecond fiber laser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Shane M; Ng, Mi Li; Bonse, Jörn; Mermillod-Blondin, Alexandre; Zhang, Haibin; Rosenfeld, Arkadi; Herman, Peter R

    2008-04-20

    For the first time femtosecond-laser writing has inscribed low-loss optical waveguides in Schott BK7 glass, a commercially important type of borosilicate widely used in optical applications. The use of a variable repetition rate laser enabled the identification of a narrow processing window at 1 MHz repetition rate with optimal waveguides exhibiting propagation losses of 0.3 dB/cm and efficient mode matching to standard optical fibers at a 1550 nm wavelength. The waveguides were characterized by complementary phase contrast and optical transmission microscopy, identifying a micrometer-sized guiding region within a larger complex structure of both positive and negative refractive index variations.

  6. What do we gain with Probabilistic Flood Loss Models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeter, K.; Kreibich, H.; Vogel, K.; Merz, B.; Lüdtke, S.

    2015-12-01

    The reliability of flood loss models is a prerequisite for their practical usefulness. Oftentimes, traditional uni-variate damage models as for instance depth-damage curves fail to reproduce the variability of observed flood damage. Innovative multi-variate probabilistic modelling approaches are promising to capture and quantify the uncertainty involved and thus to improve the basis for decision making. In this study we compare the predictive capability of two probabilistic modelling approaches, namely Bagging Decision Trees and Bayesian Networks and traditional stage damage functions which are cast in a probabilistic framework. For model evaluation we use empirical damage data which are available from computer aided telephone interviews that were respectively compiled after the floods in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2013 in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. We carry out a split sample test by sub-setting the damage records. One sub-set is used to derive the models and the remaining records are used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model. Further we stratify the sample according to catchments which allows studying model performance in a spatial transfer context. Flood damage estimation is carried out on the scale of the individual buildings in terms of relative damage. The predictive performance of the models is assessed in terms of systematic deviations (mean bias), precision (mean absolute error) as well as in terms of reliability which is represented by the proportion of the number of observations that fall within the 95-quantile and 5-quantile predictive interval. The reliability of the probabilistic predictions within validation runs decreases only slightly and achieves a very good coverage of observations within the predictive interval. Probabilistic models provide quantitative information about prediction uncertainty which is crucial to assess the reliability of model predictions and improves the usefulness of model results.

  7. Loss of life estimation in flood risk assessment; theory and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.

    2007-01-01

    The flooding of New Orleans due to hurricane Katrina in the year 2005 showed the world the catastrophic consequences of large-scale floods. This dissertation presents a method for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying delta areas. It also includes a preliminary analysis

  8. Flood control and loss estimation for paddy field at midstream of Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cham, T. C.; Mitani, Y.

    2015-09-01

    2011 Thailand flood has brought serious impact to downstream of Chao Phraya River Basin. The flood peak period started from August, 2011 to the end of October, 2011. This research focuses on midstream of Chao Phraya River Basin, which is Nakhon Sawan area includes confluence of Nan River and Yom River, also confluence of Ping River and Nan River. The main purpose of this research is to understand the flood generation, estimate the flood volume and loss of paddy field, also recommends applicable flood counter measurement to ease the flood condition at downstream of Chao Phraya River Basin. In order to understand the flood condition, post-analysis is conducted at Nakhon Sawan. The post-analysis consists of field survey to measure the flood marks remained and interview with residents to understand living condition during flood. The 2011 Thailand flood generation at midstream is simulated using coupling of 1D and 2D hydrodynamic model to understand the flood generation during flood peak period. It is calibrated and validated using flood marks measured and streamflow data received from Royal Irrigation Department (RID). Validation of results shows good agreement between simulated result and actual condition. Subsequently, 3 scenarios of flood control are simulated and Geographic Information System (GIS) is used to assess the spatial distribution of flood extent and reduction of loss estimation at paddy field. In addition, loss estimation for paddy field at midstream is evaluated using GIS with the calculated inundation depth. Results show the proposed flood control at midstream able to minimize 5% of the loss of paddy field in 26 provinces.

  9. Quantifying Nitrogen Loss From Flooded Hawaiian Taro Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deenik, J. L.; Penton, C. R.; Bruland, G. L.; Popp, B. N.; Engstrom, P.; Mueller, J. A.; Tiedje, J.

    2010-12-01

    In 2004 a field fertilization experiment showed that approximately 80% of the fertilizer nitrogen (N) added to flooded Hawaiian taro (Colocasia esculenta) fields could not be accounted for using classic N balance calculations. To quantify N loss through denitrification and anaerobic ammonium oxidation (anammox) pathways in these taro systems we utilized a slurry-based isotope pairing technique (IPT). Measured nitrification rates and porewater N profiles were also used to model ammonium and nitrate fluxes through the top 10 cm of soil. Quantitative PCR of nitrogen cycling functional genes was used to correlate porewater N dynamics with potential microbial activity. Rates of denitrification calculated using porewater profiles were compared to those obtained using the slurry method. Potential denitrification rates of surficial sediments obtained with the slurry method were found to drastically overestimate the calculated in-situ rates. The largest discrepancies were present in fields greater than one month after initial fertilization, reflecting a microbial community poised to denitrify the initial N pulse. Potential surficial nitrification rates varied between 1.3% of the slurry-measured denitrification potential in a heavily-fertilized site to 100% in an unfertilized site. Compared to the use of urea, fish bone meal fertilizer use resulted in decreased N loss through denitrification in the surface sediment, according to both porewater modeling and IPT measurements. In addition, sub-surface porewater profiles point to root-mediated coupled nitrification/denitrification as a potential N loss pathway that is not captured in surface-based incubations. Profile-based surface plus subsurface coupled nitrification/denitrification estimates were between 1.1 and 12.7 times denitrification estimates from the surface only. These results suggest that the use of a ‘classic’ isotope pairing technique that employs 15NO3- in fertilized agricultural systems can lead to a drastic

  10. A High Precision Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Flood Disaster Loss Based on Improved Genetic Programming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Yuliang; LU Guihua; JIN Juliang; TONG Fang; ZHOU Ping

    2006-01-01

    Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the complex relation between the input and output data of the system of flood disaster loss. Genetic programming (GP) solves problems by using ideas from genetic algorithm and generates computer programs automatically. In this study a new method named the evaluation of the grade of flood disaster loss (EGFD) on the basis of improved genetic programming (IGP) is presented (IGPEGFD). The flood disaster area and the direct economic loss are taken as the evaluation indexes of flood disaster loss. Obviously that the larger the evaluation index value, the larger the corresponding value of the grade of flood disaster loss is. Consequently the IGP code is designed to make the value of the grade of flood disaster be an increasing function of the index value. The result of the application of the IGP-EGFD model to Henan Province shows that a good function expression can be obtained within a bigger searched function space; and the model is of high precision and considerable practical significance.Thus, IGP-EGFD can be widely used in automatic modeling and other evaluation systems.

  11. Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Botto, Anna; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2017-04-01

    Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellermann, Patric; Schönberger, Christine; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2016-11-01

    Experience has shown that river floods can significantly hamper the reliability of railway networks and cause extensive structural damage and disruption. As a result, the national railway operator in Austria had to cope with financial losses of more than EUR 100 million due to flooding in recent years. Comprehensive information on potential flood risk hot spots as well as on expected flood damage in Austria is therefore needed for strategic flood risk management. In view of this, the flood damage model RAIL (RAilway Infrastructure Loss) was applied to estimate (1) the expected structural flood damage and (2) the resulting repair costs of railway infrastructure due to a 30-, 100- and 300-year flood in the Austrian Mur River catchment. The results were then used to calculate the expected annual damage of the railway subnetwork and subsequently analysed in terms of their sensitivity to key model assumptions. Additionally, the impact of risk aversion on the estimates was investigated, and the overall results were briefly discussed against the background of climate change and possibly resulting changes in flood risk. The findings indicate that the RAIL model is capable of supporting decision-making in risk management by providing comprehensive risk information on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that an increased risk aversion of the railway operator has a marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies.

  13. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    A key aspect of disaster prevention is flood discharge forecasting which is used for early warning and therefore as a decision support for intervention forces. Hereby, the phase between the issued forecast and the time when the expected flood occurs is crucial for an optimal planning of the intervention. Typically, river discharge forecasts cover the regional level only, i.e. larger catchments. However, it is important to note that these forecasts are not useable directly for specific target groups on local level because these forecasts say nothing about the consequences of the predicted flood in terms of affected areas, number of exposed residents and houses. For this, on one hand simulations of the flooding processes and on the other hand data of vulnerable objects are needed. Furthermore, flood modelling in a high spatial and temporal resolution is required for robust flood loss estimation. This is a resource-intensive task from a computing time point of view. Therefore, in real-time applications flood modelling in 2D is not suited. Thus, forecasting flood losses in the short-term (6h-24h in advance) requires a different approach. Here, we propose a method to downscale the river discharge forecast to a spatially-explicit flood loss forecast. The principal procedure is to generate as many flood scenarios as needed in advance to represent the flooded areas for all possible flood hydrographs, e.g. very high peak discharges of short duration vs. high peak discharges with high volumes. For this, synthetic flood hydrographs were derived from the hydrologic time series. Then, the flooded areas of each scenario were modelled with a 2D flood simulation model. All scenarios were intersected with the dataset of vulnerable objects, in our case residential, agricultural and industrial buildings with information about the number of residents, the object-specific vulnerability, and the monetary value of the objects. This dataset was prepared by a data-mining approach. For each

  14. Flood Damage and Loss Estimation for Iowa on Web-based Systems using HAZUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildirim, E.; Sermet, M. Y.; Demir, I.

    2016-12-01

    Importance of decision support systems for flood emergency response and loss estimation increases with its social and economic impacts. To estimate the damage of the flood, there are several software systems available to researchers and decision makers. HAZUS-MH is one of the most widely used desktop program, developed by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), to estimate economic loss and social impacts of disasters such as earthquake, hurricane and flooding (riverine and coastal). HAZUS used loss estimation methodology and implements through geographic information system (GIS). HAZUS contains structural, demographic, and vehicle information across United States. Thus, it allows decision makers to understand and predict possible casualties and damage of the floods by running flood simulations through GIS application. However, it doesn't represent real time conditions because of using static data. To close this gap, an overview of a web-based infrastructure coupling HAZUS and real time data provided by IFIS (Iowa Flood Information System) is presented by this research. IFIS is developed by the Iowa Flood Center, and a one-stop web-platform to access community-based flood conditions, forecasts, visualizations, inundation maps and flood-related data, information, and applications. Large volume of real-time observational data from a variety of sensors and remote sensing resources (radars, rain gauges, stream sensors, etc.) and flood inundation models are staged on a user-friendly maps environment that is accessible to the general public. Providing cross sectional analyses between HAZUS-MH and IFIS datasets, emergency managers are able to evaluate flood damage during flood events easier and more accessible in real time conditions. With matching data from HAZUS-MH census tract layer and IFC gauges, economical effects of flooding can be observed and evaluated by decision makers. The system will also provide visualization of the data by using augmented reality for

  15. Flooding and subsidence in the Thames Gateway: impact on insurance loss potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royse, Katherine; Horn, Diane; Eldridge, Jillian; Barker, Karen

    2010-05-01

    In the UK, household buildings insurance generally covers loss and damage to the insured property from a range of natural and human perils, including windstorm, flood, subsidence, theft, accidental fire and winter freeze. Consequently, insurers require a reasoned view on the likely scale of losses that they may face to assist in strategic planning, reinsurance structuring, regulatory returns and general risk management. The UK summer 2007 flood events not only provided a clear indication of the scale of potential losses that the industry could face from an individual event, with £3 billion in claims, but also identified a need for insurers and reinsurers to better understand how events may correlate in time and space, and how to most effectively use the computational models of extreme events that are commonly applied to reflect these correlations. In addition to the potential for temporal clustering of events such as windstorms and floods, there is a possibility that seemingly uncorrelated natural perils, such as floods and subsidence, may impact an insurer's portfolio. Where aggregations of large numbers of new properties are planned, such as in the Thames Gateway, consideration of the potential future risk of aggregate losses due to the combination of perils such as subsidence and flood is increasingly important within the insurance company's strategic risk management process. Whilst perils such as subsidence and flooding are generally considered independent within risk modelling, the potential for one event to influence the magnitude and likelihood of the other should be taken into account when determining risk level. In addition, the impact of correlated, but distinctive, loss causing events on particular property types may be significant, particularly if a specific property is designed to protect against one peril but is potentially susceptible to another. We suggest that flood events can lead to increased subsidence risk due to the weight of additional water

  16. Results comparison and model validation for flood loss functions in Australian geographical conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasanzadeh Nafari, R.; Ngo, T.; Lehman, W.

    2015-06-01

    Rapid urbanisation, climate change and unsustainable developments are increasing the risk of floods, namely flood frequency and intensity. Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial consequences for Australia. The emergency response system in Australia is very successful and has saved many lives over the years. However, the preparedness for natural disaster impacts in terms of loss reduction and damage mitigation has been less successful. This study aims to quantify the direct physical damage to residential structures that are prone to flood phenomena in Australia. In this paper, the physical consequences of two floods from Queensland have been simulated, and the results have been compared with the performance of two selected methodologies and one newly derived model. Based on this analysis, the adaptability and applicability of the selected methodologies will be assessed in terms of Australian geographical conditions. Results obtained from the new empirically-based function and non-adapted methodologies indicate that it is apparent that the precision of flood damage models are strongly dependent on selected stage damage curves, and flood damage estimation without model validation results in inaccurate prediction of losses. Therefore, it is very important to be aware of the associated uncertainties in flood risk assessment, especially if models have not been adapted with real damage data.

  17. Optimal house elevation for reducing flood-related losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Kunreuther, Howard

    2017-05-01

    FEMA recommends that houses in coastal flood zones be elevated to at least 1 foot above the base flood elevation (BFE). However, this guideline is not specific and ignores characteristics of houses that affect their vulnerability. An economically optimal elevation level (OEL) is proposed that minimizes the combined cost of elevation and cumulative insurance premiums over the lifespan of the house. As an illustration, analysis is performed for various coastal houses in Ortley Beach, NJ. Compared with the strategy of raising houses to 1 foot above BFE, the strategy of raising houses to their OELs is much more economical for the homeowners. Elevating to the OELs also significantly reduces government spending on subsidizing low-income homeowners through, for example, a voucher program, to mitigate flood risk. These results suggest that policy makers should consider vulnerability factors in developing risk-reduction strategies. FEMA may recommend OELs to homeowners based on their flood hazards as well as house characteristics or at least providing more information and tools to homeowners to assist them in making more economical decisions. The OEL strategy can also be coupled with a voucher program to make the program more cost-effective.

  18. Calibration and validation of FLFArs -- a new flood loss function for Australian residential structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasanzadeh Nafari, R.; Ngo, T.; Lehman, W.

    2016-01-01

    Rapid urbanisation, climate change and unsustainable developments are increasing the risk of floods. Flood is a frequent natural hazard that has significant financial consequences for Australia. The emergency response system in Australia is very successful and has saved many lives over the years. However, the preparedness for natural disaster impacts in terms of loss reduction and damage mitigation has been less successful. In this paper, a newly derived flood loss function for Australian residential structures (FLFArs) has been presented and calibrated by using historic data collected from an extreme event in Queensland, Australia, that occurred in 2013. Afterwards, the performance of the method developed in this work (contrasted to one Australian model and one model from USA) has been compared with the observed damage data collected from a 2012 flood event in Maranoa, Queensland. Based on this analysis, validation of the selected methodologies has been performed in terms of Australian geographical conditions. Results obtained from the new empirically based function (FLFArs) and the other models indicate that it is apparent that the precision of flood damage models is strongly dependent on selected stage damage curves, and flood damage estimation without model calibration might result in inaccurate predictions of losses. Therefore, it is very important to be aware of the associated uncertainties in flood risk assessment, especially if models have not been calibrated with real damage data.

  19. Amazon river flow regime and flood recessional agriculture: Flood stage reversals and risk of annual crop loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coomes, Oliver T.; Lapointe, Michel; Templeton, Michael; List, Geneva

    2016-08-01

    The annual flood cycle is an important driver of ecosystem structure and function in large tropical rivers such as the Amazon. Riparian peasant communities rely on river fishing and annual floodplain agriculture, closely adapted to the recession phase of the flood pulse. This article reports on a poorly documented but important challenge facing farmers practicing flood recessional agriculture along the Amazon river: frequent, unpredictable stage reversals (repiquetes) which threaten to ruin crops growing on channel bars. We assess the severity of stage reversals for rice production on exposed river mud bars (barreales) near Iquitos, Peru. Crop loss risk is estimated based on a quantitative analysis of 45 years of daily Amazon stage data and field data from floodplain communities nearby in the Muyuy archipelago, upstream of Iquitos. Rice varieties selected, elevations of silt rich bars where rice is sown, as well as planting and harvest dates are analyzed in the light of the timing, frequencies and amplitudes of observed stage reversals that have the potential to destroy growing rice. We find that unpredictable stage reversals can produce substantial crop losses and shorten significantly the length of average growing seasons on lower elevation river bars. The data reveal that local famers extend planting down to lower bar elevations where the mean probabilities of re-submergence before rice maturity (due to reversals) approach 50%, below which they implicitly consider that the risk of crop loss outweighs the potential reward of planting.

  20. Cascading uncertainties in flood inundation models to uncertain estimates of damage and loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fewtrell, Timothy; Michel, Gero; Ntelekos, Alexandros; Bates, Paul

    2010-05-01

    The complexity of flood processes, particularly in urban environments, and the difficulties of collecting data during flood events, presents significant and particular challenges to modellers, especially when considering large geographic areas. As a result, the modelling process incorporates a number of areas of uncertainty during model conceptualisation, construction and evaluation. There is a wealth of literature detailing the relative magnitudes of uncertainties in numerical flood input data (e.g. boundary conditions, model resolution and friction specification) for a wide variety of flood inundation scenarios (e.g. fluvial inundation and surface water flooding). Indeed, recent UK funded projects (e.g. FREE) have explicitly examined the effect of cascading uncertainties in ensembles of GCM output through rainfall-runoff models to hydraulic flood inundation models. However, there has been little work examining the effect of cascading uncertainties in flood hazard ensembles to estimates of damage and loss, the quantity of interest when assessing flood risk. Furthermore, vulnerability is possibly the largest area of uncertainty for (re-)insurers as in-depth and reliable of knowledge of portfolios is difficult to obtain. Insurance industry CAT models attempt to represent a credible range of flood events over large geographic areas and as such examining all sources of uncertainty is not computationally tractable. However, the insurance industry is also marked by a trend towards an increasing need to understand the variability in flood loss estimates derived from these CAT models. In order to assess the relative importance of uncertainties in flood inundation models and depth/damage curves, hypothetical 1-in-100 and 1-in-200 year return period flood events are propagated through the Greenwich embayment in London, UK. Errors resulting from topographic smoothing, friction specification and inflow boundary conditions are cascaded to form an ensemble of flood levels and

  1. Estimation of insurance-related losses resulting from coastal flooding in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naulin, J. P.; Moncoulon, D.; Le Roy, S.; Pedreros, R.; Idier, D.; Oliveros, C.

    2016-01-01

    A model has been developed in order to estimate insurance-related losses caused by coastal flooding in France. The deterministic part of the model aims at identifying the potentially flood-impacted sectors and the subsequent insured losses a few days after the occurrence of a storm surge event on any part of the French coast. This deterministic component is a combination of three models: a hazard model, a vulnerability model, and a damage model. The first model uses the PREVIMER system to estimate the water level resulting from the simultaneous occurrence of a high tide and a surge caused by a meteorological event along the coast. A storage-cell flood model propagates these water levels over the land and thus determines the probable inundated areas. The vulnerability model, for its part, is derived from the insurance schedules and claims database, combining information such as risk type, class of business, and insured values. The outcome of the vulnerability and hazard models are then combined with the damage model to estimate the event damage and potential insured losses. This system shows satisfactory results in the estimation of the magnitude of the known losses related to the flood caused by the Xynthia storm. However, it also appears very sensitive to the water height estimated during the flood period, conditioned by the junction between seawater levels and coastal topography, the accuracy for which is still limited by the amount of information in the system.

  2. Investigating the relationship between North Atlantic Oscillation and flood losses at the European scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanardo, Stefano; Jewson, Steve; Nicotina, Ludovico; Hilberts, Arno

    2016-04-01

    The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is Europe's dominant mode of climate variability. As a consequence, the interconnections between NAO and hydrologic extremes in the European continent have long been observed and analysed. Some of this research has been focusing on the relationship between NAO and catastrophic floods, however, the lack of extensive data-sets restricts these studies to relatively small spatial and temporal scales. This is an obvious limitation when dealing with flood risk; indeed, the highly non-linear relationships among the different physical and anthropogenic controls are responsible for strong spatial and temporal correlations that cannot be accounted for at the local scale alone. The goal of this work is to explore the relationship between the NAO signal and economic flood losses at the European scale through long term stochastic simulations. For this study we use the European flood model recently developed by RMS (Risk Management Solution Ltd). The model combines 50000 years of rainfall-runoff-inundation simulations with a high definition exposure/vulnerability model to produce simulated flood losses in 13 European countries. The correlation between rainfall fields and NAO signal is based on the last 50 years of data and discretized at the monthly level. We found significant correlations between the NAO signal and both the average annual loss (AAL) and the average seasonal loss (ASL), for all the countries analysed. Noticeably, ASL-NAO trends were always negative for summer, spring and fall seasons, while could be either positive or negative for winter seasons, depending on the country.

  3. How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database – analysis of flood losses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Kron

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of human and material losses, biased reporting by interest groups, including governments, changes over time due to new findings, etc. Loss quantities are often not separable into different causes, e.g., windstorm and flood losses during a hurricane, or windstorm, hail and flooding during a severe storm event. These difficulties should be kept in mind when database figures are analysed statistically, and the results have to be treated with due regard for the characteristics of the underlying data. Comparing events at different locations and on different dates can only be done using normalised data. For most analyses, and in particular trend analyses, socio-economic changes such as inflation or growth in population and values must be considered. Problems encountered when analysing trends are discussed using the example of floods and flood losses.

  4. Floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods are common in the United States. Weather such as heavy rain, thunderstorms, hurricanes, or tsunamis can ... is breached, or when a dam breaks. Flash floods, which can develop quickly, often have a dangerous ...

  5. Agricultural damages and losses from ARkStorm scenario flooding in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wein, Anne; David Mitchell,; Peters, Jeff; John Rowden,; Johnny Tran,; Alessandra Corsi,; Dinitz, Laura B.

    2016-01-01

    Scientists designed the ARkStorm scenario to challenge the preparedness of California communities for widespread flooding with a historical precedence and increased likelihood under climate change. California is an important provider of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and other agricultural products to the nation. This study analyzes the agricultural damages and losses pertaining to annual crops, perennial crops, and livestock in California exposed to ARkStorm flooding. Statewide, flood damage is incurred on approximately 23% of annual crop acreage, 5% of perennial crop acreage, and 5% of livestock, e.g., dairy, feedlot, and poultry, acreage. The sum of field repair costs, forgone income, and product replacement costs span $3.7 and $7.1 billion (2009) for a range of inundation durations. Perennial crop loss estimates dominate, and the vulnerability of orchards and vineyards has likely increased with recent expansion. Crop reestablishment delays from levee repair and dewatering more than double annual crop losses in the delta islands, assuming the fragile system does not remain permanently flooded. The exposure of almost 200,000 dairy cows to ARkStorm flooding poses livestock evacuation challenges. Read More: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/%28ASCE%29NH.1527-6996.0000174

  6. A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Gerl

    Full Text Available Risk-based approaches have been increasingly accepted and operationalized in flood risk management during recent decades. For instance, commercial flood risk models are used by the insurance industry to assess potential losses, establish the pricing of policies and determine reinsurance needs. Despite considerable progress in the development of loss estimation tools since the 1980s, loss estimates still reflect high uncertainties and disparities that often lead to questioning their quality. This requires an assessment of the validity and robustness of loss models as it affects prioritization and investment decision in flood risk management as well as regulatory requirements and business decisions in the insurance industry. Hence, more effort is needed to quantify uncertainties and undertake validations. Due to a lack of detailed and reliable flood loss data, first order validations are difficult to accomplish, so that model comparisons in terms of benchmarking are essential. It is checked if the models are informed by existing data and knowledge and if the assumptions made in the models are aligned with the existing knowledge. When this alignment is confirmed through validation or benchmarking exercises, the user gains confidence in the models. Before these benchmarking exercises are feasible, however, a cohesive survey of existing knowledge needs to be undertaken. With that aim, this work presents a review of flood loss-or flood vulnerability-relationships collected from the public domain and some professional sources. Our survey analyses 61 sources consisting of publications or software packages, of which 47 are reviewed in detail. This exercise results in probably the most complete review of flood loss models to date containing nearly a thousand vulnerability functions. These functions are highly heterogeneous and only about half of the loss models are found to be accompanied by explicit validation at the time of their proposal. This paper

  7. A Review of Flood Loss Models as Basis for Harmonization and Benchmarking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerl, Tina; Kreibich, Heidi; Franco, Guillermo; Marechal, David; Schröter, Kai

    2016-01-01

    Risk-based approaches have been increasingly accepted and operationalized in flood risk management during recent decades. For instance, commercial flood risk models are used by the insurance industry to assess potential losses, establish the pricing of policies and determine reinsurance needs. Despite considerable progress in the development of loss estimation tools since the 1980s, loss estimates still reflect high uncertainties and disparities that often lead to questioning their quality. This requires an assessment of the validity and robustness of loss models as it affects prioritization and investment decision in flood risk management as well as regulatory requirements and business decisions in the insurance industry. Hence, more effort is needed to quantify uncertainties and undertake validations. Due to a lack of detailed and reliable flood loss data, first order validations are difficult to accomplish, so that model comparisons in terms of benchmarking are essential. It is checked if the models are informed by existing data and knowledge and if the assumptions made in the models are aligned with the existing knowledge. When this alignment is confirmed through validation or benchmarking exercises, the user gains confidence in the models. Before these benchmarking exercises are feasible, however, a cohesive survey of existing knowledge needs to be undertaken. With that aim, this work presents a review of flood loss-or flood vulnerability-relationships collected from the public domain and some professional sources. Our survey analyses 61 sources consisting of publications or software packages, of which 47 are reviewed in detail. This exercise results in probably the most complete review of flood loss models to date containing nearly a thousand vulnerability functions. These functions are highly heterogeneous and only about half of the loss models are found to be accompanied by explicit validation at the time of their proposal. This paper exemplarily presents

  8. Assessing trends in insured losses from floods in Spain 1971-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barredo, J. I.; Saurí, D.; Llasat, M. C.

    2012-05-01

    Economic impacts from floods have been increasing over recent decades, a fact often attributed to a changing climate. On the other hand, there is now a significant body of scientific scholarship all pointing towards increasing concentrations and values of assets as the principle cause of the increasing cost of natural disasters. This holds true for a variety of perils and across different jurisdictions. With this in mind, this paper examines the time history of insured losses from floods in Spain between 1971 and 2008. It assesses whether any discernible residual signal remains after adjusting the data for the increase in the number and value of insured assets over this period of time. Data on insured losses from floods were sourced from Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros (CCS). Although a public institution, CCS compensates homeowners for the damage produced by floods, and thus plays a role similar to that of a private insurance company. Insured losses were adjusted using two proxy measures: first, changes in the total amount of annual surcharges (premiums) paid by customers to CCS, and secondly, changes in the total value of dwellings per year. The adjusted data reveals no significant trend over the period 1971-2008 and serves again to confirm that at this juncture, societal influences remain the prime factors driving insured and economic losses from natural disasters.

  9. Disaster loss and social media: Can online information increase flood resilience?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allaire, Maura C.

    2016-09-01

    When confronted with natural disasters, individuals around the world increasingly use online resources to become informed of forecasted conditions and advisable actions. This study tests the effectiveness of online information and social media in enabling households to reduce disaster losses. The 2011 Bangkok flood is utilized as a case study since it was one of the first major disasters to affect a substantial population connected to social media. The role of online information is investigated with a mixed methods approach. Both quantitative (propensity score matching) and qualitative (in-depth interviews) techniques are employed. The study relies on two data sources—survey responses from 469 Bangkok households and in-depth interviews with internet users who were a subset of the survey participants. Propensity score matching indicates that social media enabled households to reduce flood losses by an average of 37% (USD 3708 per household), using a nearest neighbor estimator. This reduction is substantial when considering that household flood losses for the matched sample averaged USD 8278. Social media offered information not available from other sources, such as localized and nearly real-time updates of flood location and depth. With this knowledge, households could move belongings to higher ground before floodwaters arrived. These findings suggest that utilizing social media users as sensors could better inform populations during disasters. Overall, the study reveals that online information can enable effective disaster preparedness and reduce losses.

  10. Scientific relevance of Swiss property insurance data on flood risks and losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Röthlisberger, Veronika; Bernet, Daniel; Keiler, Margreth

    2015-04-01

    The databases of Swiss flood insurance companies build a valuable but to date rarely used source of information for flood risk research. Detailed insights into the Swiss flood insurance system are crucial to evaluate the potential of the different databases for scientific analysis. Even though the flood insurance system modalities are mainly regulated on cantonal level there are some common principles that apply throughout Switzerland. First of all coverage against floods (and other particular natural hazards) is an integral part of every fire insurance policy for buildings or contents in Switzerland. This coupling of insurance as well as the statutory obligation to insure buildings in most of the cantons and movables in some of the cantons lead to a very high penetration. Second, in case of damage, the reinstatement costs (value as new) are compensated and third there are no (or little) deductible and co-pay. Thus the different datasets of the flood insurance companies would allow a very comprehensive data analysis. Moreover, insurance companies not only store electronically data about losses (typically date, amount of claims payment, cause of damage, identity of the insured object or policyholder) but also about insured objects. For insured objects the (insured) value and the details on the policy and its holder are the main feature to record. On buildings the insurance companies usually computerize additional information such as location, volume, year of construction or purpose of use. For the 19 (of total 26) cantons with a cantonal monopoly insurer the data of these insurance establishments have the additional value to represent (almost) the entire building stock of the respective canton. However, scientists face a wide range of the opportunities and challenges when using insurance data for flood research. The origin of flood insurance data implies that they are not generated for research but for business management. The presentation will highlighted pro and

  11. THE ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMICAL LOSS CAUSED BY FLOODS AND FLASH-FLOODS BY USING COMPUTER TECHNIQUES. CASE STUDY: LOPĂTARI VILLAGE, SLĂNIC RIVER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    COSTACHE R.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to provide an example of the assessment of economical loss caused by floods and flash-floods, by integrating GIS techniques of hydraulic and hydrological modelling. The case study was performed in Lopătari village, which is located in the upper area of Slănic River, one of the most affected areas by floods and flash-floods. The flood event produced on 29.V.2012 was considered in order to perform this study. Thus, a flood hydrograph was simulated by using software HEC-HMS 3.5, based on hourly precipitation data from Bisoca meteorological station from 29.V.2012. The peak discharge resulting from the hydrological modelling software was used in HEC-RAS 4.1 hydraulic modelling software in order to determine the extent of flooding band, the number of the affected elements and the local economical loss. Finally, 21 flooded buildings were identified and 550 m of affected road, the estimated economical damage being about 800,000 RON.

  12. Torque loss induced by repetitive maximal eccentric contractions is marginally influenced by work-to-rest ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeil, Chris J; Allman, Brian L; Symons, T Brock; Vandervoort, Anthony A; Rice, Charles L

    2004-05-01

    The influence of different work-to-rest (W:R) ratios during fatigue induced by maximal eccentric contractions is unknown. The present study sought to expand the understanding of the task-dependent nature of eccentric contractions, and the associated fatigue, during exercise and acute as well as extended recovery periods. Using a Biodex multi-joint dynamometer, the ankle dorsiflexors of eight men [26 (4) years] were fatigued with 150 maximal eccentric contractions. Set structure was manipulated such that one leg performed 3 sets of 50 repetitions (short rest protocol, SRP), and the other leg performed 15 sets of 10 repetitions (long rest protocol, LRP). A 1-min rest interval separated each set, which resulted in 2 and 14 min of total rest for the SRP and the LRP, respectively. At fatigue, the SRP demonstrated a marginally greater loss of average peak eccentric torque than the LRP ( Ptorque loss and the degree of low-frequency fatigue (LFF) were not recovered ( Ptorque was persistent and equal for each protocol at 96 h of recovery ( Pratio has a modest influence on the fatigue (torque loss) induced by maximal eccentric contractions, but maximal isometric torque during recovery and LFF are insensitive to changes in total rest time.

  13. Evaluation of crop yield loss of floods based on water turbidity index with multi-temporal HJ-CCD images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Xiaohe; Xu, Peng; Wang, Lei; Wang, Xiuhui

    2015-12-01

    Paddy is one of the most important food crops in China. Due to the intensive planting in the surrounding of rivers and lakes, paddy is vulnerable to flooding stress. The research on predicting crop yield loss derived from flooding stress will help the adjustment of crop planting structure and the claims of agricultural insurance. The paper aimed to develop a method of estimating yield loss of paddy derived from flooding by multi-temporal HJ CCD images. At first, the water pixels after flooding were extracted, from which the water line (WL) of turbid water pixels was generated. Secondly, the water turbidity index (WTI) and perpendicular vegetation index (PVI) was defined and calculated. By analyzing the relation among WTI, PVI and paddy yield, the model of evaluating yield loss of flooding was developed. Based on this model, the spatial distribution of paddy yield loss derived from flooding was mapped in the study area. Results showed that the water turbidity index (WTI) could be used to monitor the sediment content of flood, which was closely related to the plant physiology and per unit area yield of paddy. The PVI was the good indicator of paddy yield with significant correlation (0.965). So the PVI could be used to estimate the per unit area yield before harvesting. The PVI and WTI had good linear relation, which could provide an effective, practical and feasible method for monitoring yield loss of waterlogged paddy.

  14. Tracing volatile loss during the eruption of individual flood basalt flows in the Columbia River Flood Basalt Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, K. W.; Vye, C.; Gannoun, A.; Self, S.

    2010-12-01

    Continental flood basalt (CFB) volcanism is characterised by the repeated eruption of huge batches of magma, producing enormous basalt provinces (105-106 km3) over relatively brief intervals of time, and delivering large masses of volcanic gas to the atmosphere. The release of gases and aerosols during CFB volcanism is thought to have had a significant impact on the atmosphere, ocean chemistry and climate [1-3]. The key factors influencing atmospheric chemistry and the environmental impact of CFB eruptions are the timing, mechanism and duration of volatile release during individual eruptions, but for the most part such information remains poorly known. The 187Re-187Os isotope system offers a highly sensitive tracer of the evolution of melt chemistry, and of the timing and mechanism of volatile release. This is partly because the contrasting behaviour of Re and Os during melting results in the extreme fractionation of parent/daughter (Re/Os) isotope ratios, thus magmatic phases can yield precise chronological information, and crustal rocks develop highly radiogenic isotope compositions that can be readily traced if assimilated [4]. Partly also because Re behaves as a highly volatile element during sub-aerial volcanism [5]. This study presents 187Re-187Os isotope data for rocks and minerals from two flows in the Columbia River Flood Basalt Group, one of the youngest flood basalt provinces that formed over a 2 million year interval in the Mid-Miocene. The 2,660 km3 Sand Hollow flow field displays small major and trace element variations, both laterally and vertically across the flow, indicative of fractional crystallisation, but the elemental data cannot be used to distinguish source variations and/or crustal contamination. However, Os isotopes indicate systematic crustal contamination over the timescale of an individual eruption, where the earliest formed lavas show the greatest degree of contamination. Isotope and elemental data for phenocryst phases from the 40

  15. The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a Flood Catastrophe Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Sampson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and re-insurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge corrected rainfall radar, meteorological re-analysis data (ERA-Interim and a satellite rainfall product (CMORPH. Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find these loss estimates to be highly sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving observational datasets, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

  16. Comprehensive flood economic losses: review of the potential damage and implementation of an agricultural impact model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mao Gwladys

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With an annual loss averaging 580 M€ between 1990 and 2014, floods are the main natural catastrophe (Nat Cat risk for the French Nat Cat compensation scheme. As part of its role in this scheme, the Caisse Centrale de Réassurance (CCR offers state guaranteed reinsurance programs and has been modelling the risk of flooding since 2003. This model is based on the traditional valuation approach of direct tangible costs which pairs a physical model with exposure through damage curves. CCR wishes now to widen the studied damage scope to insured and noninsured economic costs and has been collaborating with the SAF research laboratory from the Institute of Financial and Insurance Sciences (ISFA since 2014. CCR’s model has been used to estimate the insured direct damage to residential and non-residential properties and it is now being developed to include damage to vehicles, agriculture and network infrastructures. Research is also being carried out to take into account business interruptions and indirect losses using an Input-Output model. This article describes the undergoing work on model development to estimate the damage to agriculture.

  17. Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan - a data integration approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okada, T.; McAneney, K. J.; Chen, K.

    2011-12-01

    Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS)-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data - census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data - this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US 12.5 billion). Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like that presented here have

  18. Potential Economic Losses Due to Tidal Inundation and Flood at Semarang City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifan R Suhelmi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Coastal city of Semarang is susceptible to the impact of coastal hazard due to its flat topographic condition. Various environmental problems are faced by Semarang involve tidal inundation, land subsidence, and floods during rainy season. This study was conducted to examine the potential economic losses caused by the sea level rise phenomenon. Distribution of inundated area mapped using Digital Elevation Model and Land Subsidence data. The Scenarios of International Panel on Climate Change (2007 sea level rises used to build a model of inundated area that notes by 2030 the rise of sea level rise at 13.4 cm. The inundated map was overlayed with landuse map to calculate the potential economic losses. The results show that the inundated area that occurred in 2030 was 1,718.2 ha with the potential economic losses Rp. 6,130 trillion. With the land subsidence scenario that happen at the area, inundated area increased to 5,171.3 ha with the eonomic potential loss about Rp. 28,724 trillion.

  19. Flood-induced agricultural loss across China and impacts from climate indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Liu, Lin; Kong, Dongdong

    2016-04-01

    Province-wide data on flood-destroyed and flood-affected crop areas across China covering a period of 1960-2013 were analyzed in this study for investigating their relations with climate indices, such as ENSO, NAO, IOD, PDO and AMO. Results indicated that: (1) agricultural flooding in northeast and south China tended to enhance under the influence of warm PDO and warm IOD events of the previous years. However, agricultural flooding in southwest China tended to decrease as a result of warm ENSO events of the previous years. Agricultural floods in coastal regions of southeast China were influenced by more than one climate index; (2) Agricultural floods of different time scales were subject to different degrees of correlations with climate indices. Remarkably, climate indices that were significantly correlated with agricultural floods were usually temporally enhancing. Relations between ENSO and agricultural floods across China were statistically strong with good persistency. Thus, ENSO can be taken as a suitable predictor for flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas across China. However, AMO cannot be taken as the predictor for flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas in China; (3) The combined influence of climate indices on flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas across China did not have a firm spatiotemporal pattern. However, specific groups of climate indices can have definitive impacts on flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas over specific regions. Findings of this study can help predict flood-affected and flood-destroyed crop areas across provinces of China, and hence plan and manage agricultural activities in China.

  20. Estimating the welfare loss to households from natural disasters in developing countries: a contingent valuation study of flooding in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ståle Navrud

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Natural disasters have severe impacts on the health and well-being of affected households. However, we find evidence that official damage cost assessments for floods and other natural disasters in Vietnam, where households have little or no insurance, clearly underestimate the total economic damage costs of these events as they do not include the welfare loss from mortality, morbidity and reduced well-being experienced by the households affected by the floods. This should send a message to the local communities and national authorities that higher investments in flood alleviation, reduction and adaptive measures can be justified since the social benefits of these measures in terms of avoided damage costs are higher than previously thought. Methods: We pioneer the use of the contingent valuation (CV approach of willingness-to-contribute (WTC labour to a flood prevention program, as a measure of the welfare loss experienced by household due to a flooding event. In a face-to-face household survey of 706 households in the Quang Nam province in Central Vietnam, we applied this approach together with reported direct physical damage in order to shed light of the welfare loss experienced by the households. We asked about households’ WTC labour and multiplied their WTC person-days of labour by an estimate for their opportunity cost of time in order to estimate the welfare loss to households from the 2007 floods. Results: The results showed that this contingent valuation (CV approach of asking about willingness-to-pay in-kind avoided the main problems associated with applying CV in developing countries. Conclusion: Thus, the CV approach of WTC labour instead of money is promising in terms of capturing the total welfare loss of natural disasters to households, and promising in terms of further application in other developing countries and for other types of natural disasters.

  1. The 1421 St.Elisabeth flooding ‘event’ and the loss of “De Groote Waard”, the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerts, H.J.T.; Cohen, K.M.; Kleinhans, M.G.

    2012-01-01

    According to legend, a very severe storm in November 1421 caused catastrophic flooding and overnight loss of the larger part of “De Groote Waard”, a prosperous polder area in medieval The Netherlands. Allegedly, more than 25 villages were lost and thousands of people were killed. But what had really

  2. Middle to late Holocene flood activity estimated from loss on ignition of peat in the Ishikari lowland, northern Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishii, Yuji; Hori, Kazuaki; Momohara, Arata

    2017-06-01

    Reconstruction of the magnitude and frequency of past floods is important for assessments of flood risk. However, there have been few reconstructions of past flood activity based on long-term continuous records from a single fluvial system and thus suitable for comparison with other paleoclimate proxies. Consequently, the influence of climate change on flood activity remains unclear. Floodplain peat beds can be preserved for long periods of geologic time; they also contain both clastic sediments from overbank flooding and organic material produced in situ, both of which are important inputs for geologic reconstructions. In this study, we examined 24 cores from the Ishikari lowland, northern Japan, to find out if temporal changes of loss on ignition (LOI) of peat can provide a record of flood magnitude and frequency and to investigate the influence of regional climate change on flood activity. Our plant macrofossil analyses, the distribution of characteristic LOI depth profiles, and sedimentary facies suggest that the LOI of peat increases when the magnitude and frequency of floods decreases, which in turn suggests that temporal changes of LOI in peat might be useful as a proxy for past flood activity. Our results indicate that increases in the LOI of peat deposited near the Ishikari River at ca. 5500-5000 and 4000-3500 cal BP may correspond to weakened activities of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Furthermore, our analyses show that an increase in flood activity of the Ishikari River during 1400-1300 cal BP may be related to a decrease in ENSO activity. However, temporal changes of the LOI of peat formed near a tributary of the Ishikari River did not correlate with these climate changes. Our results suggest that the past flood activity of rivers with large watersheds reflects regional climate change, because the extensive precipitation that induces flooding of such rivers is generally associated with regional climate

  3. Uni- and multi-variable modelling of flood losses: experiences gained from the Secchia river inundation event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Castellarin, Attilio

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk is function of flood hazard and vulnerability, therefore its accurate assessment depends on a reliable quantification of both factors. The scientific literature proposes a number of objective and reliable methods for assessing flood hazard, yet it highlights a limited understanding of the fundamental damage processes. Loss modelling is associated with large uncertainty which is, among other factors, due to a lack of standard procedures; for instance, flood losses are often estimated based on damage models derived in completely different contexts (i.e. different countries or geographical regions) without checking its applicability, or by considering only one explanatory variable (i.e. typically water depth). We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 200 km2 in Northern Italy. In the aftermath of this event, local authorities collected flood loss data, together with additional information on affected private households and industrial activities (e.g. buildings surface and economic value, number of company's employees and others). Based on these data we implemented and compared a quadratic-regression damage function, with water depth as the only explanatory variable, and a multi-variable model that combines multiple regression trees and considers several explanatory variables (i.e. bagging decision trees). Our results show the importance of data collection revealing that (1) a simple quadratic regression damage function based on empirical data from the study area can be significantly more accurate than literature damage-models derived for a different context and (2) multi-variable modelling may outperform the uni-variable approach, yet it is more difficult to develop and apply due to a much higher demand of detailed data.

  4. Estimating insured residential losses from large flood scenarios on the Tone River, Japan – a data integration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Okada

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Flooding on the Tone River, which drains the largest catchment area in Japan and is now home to 12 million people, poses significant risk to the Greater Tokyo Area. In April 2010, an expert panel in Japan, the Central Disaster Prevention Council, examined the potential for large-scale flooding and outlined possible mitigation measures in the Greater Tokyo Area. One of the scenarios considered closely mimics the pattern of flooding that occurred with the passage of Typhoon Kathleen in 1947 and would potentially flood some 680 000 households above floor level. Building upon that report, this study presents a Geographical Information System (GIS-based data integration approach to estimate the insurance losses for residential buildings and contents as just one component of the potential financial cost. Using a range of publicly available data – census information, location reference data, insurance market information and flood water elevation data – this analysis finds that insurance losses for residential property alone could reach approximately 1 trillion JPY (US$ 12.5 billion. Total insurance losses, including commercial and industrial lines of business, are likely to be at least double this figure with total economic costs being much greater again. The results are sensitive to the flood scenario assumed, position of levee failures, local flood depths and extents, population and building heights. The Average Recurrence Interval (ARI of the rainfall following Typhoon Kathleen has been estimated to be on the order of 200 yr; however, at this juncture it is not possible to put an ARI on the modelled loss since we cannot know the relative or joint probability of the different flooding scenarios. It is possible that more than one of these scenarios could occur simultaneously or that levee failure at one point might lower water levels downstream and avoid a failure at all other points. In addition to insurance applications, spatial analyses like

  5. Improving calibration of two key parameters in Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic modelling system, and analysing the influence of initial loss on flood peak flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Musheng; Chen, Xingwei; Chen, Ying; Yao, Huaxia

    2013-01-01

    Parameter calibration is a key and difficult issue for a hydrological model. Taking the Jinjiang Xixi watershed of south-east China as the study area, we proposed methods to improve the calibration of two very sensitive parameters, Muskingum K and initial loss, in the Hydrologic Engineering Center hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) model. Twenty-three rainstorm flood events occurring from 1972 to 1977 were used to calibrate the model using a trial-and-error approach, and a relationship between initial loss and initial discharge for these flood events was established; seven rainstorm events occurring from 1978 to 1979 were used to validate the two parameters. The influence of initial loss change on different return-period floods was evaluated. A fixed Muskingum K value, which was calibrated by assuming a flow wave velocity at 3 m/s, could be used to simulate a flood hydrograph, and the empirical power-function relationship between initial loss and initial discharge made the model more applicable for flood forecasting. The influence of initial loss on peak floods was significant but not identical for different flood levels, and the change rate of peak floods caused by the same initial loss change was more remarkable when the return period increased.

  6. Assessing the Influences of a Flood Diversion Project on Mitigating River Stage, Inundation Extent and Economic Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bo Chen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Taiwan usually suffers severe inundation disasters during typhoons and strong rainstorms, and therefore flood mitigation is considered an important issue. To assess the effect of the Yuansantze flood diversion tunnel (YFDT on flood mitigation at the upstream reaches of the Keelung River, a three-dimensional, unstructured grid, Finite-Volume, primitive equation Community Ocean Model (FVCOM was used. The model was validated with observed data for water levels and inundation extent during different typhoon events. The simulated results show a good agreement with field measurements of water level with three historical typhoon events but underestimated the measured inundation extent with Typhoon Nari. The validated model was then applied to assess the flood mitigation and economic loss with the YFDT. The results demonstrated that the river level decreases approximately 3 m with the YFDT and that the inundation extent decreases by more than 50% in the Ruifang District with YFDT. The YDFT aims to not only mitigate hazards but also reduce economic losses. The average annual expected benefit after construction of the YFDT is approximately 184 million NTD in the Ruifang District.

  7. The relevance of flood hazards and impacts in Turkey: What can be learned from different disaster loss databases?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koc, Gamze; Thieken, Annegret H.

    2016-04-01

    Despite technological development, better data and considerable efforts to reduce the impacts of natural hazards over the last two decades, natural disasters inflicted losses have caused enormous human and economic damages in Turkey. In particular earthquakes and flooding have caused enormous human and economic losses that occasionally amounted to 3 to 4% of the gross national product of Turkey (Genç, 2007). While there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study is aimed at investigating flood patterns, intensities and impacts, also providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses by analysing different databases on disaster losses throughout Turkey. As input for more detailed event analyses, an additional aim is to retrieve the most severe flood events in the period between 1960 and 2014 from the databases. In general, data on disaster impacts are scarce in comparison to other scientific fields in natural hazard research, although the lack of reliable, consistent and comparable data is seen as a major obstacle for effective and long-term loss prevention. Currently, only a few data sets, especially the emergency events database EM-DAT (www.emdat.be) hosted and maintained by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) since 1988, are publicly accessible and have become widely used to describe trends in disaster losses. However, loss data are subjected to various biases (Gall et al. 2009). Since Turkey is in the favourable position of having a distinct national disaster database since 2009, i.e. the Turkey Disaster Data Base (TABB), there is the unique opportunity to investigate flood impacts in Turkey in more detail as well as to identify biases and underlying reasons for mismatches with EM-DAT. To compare these two databases, the events of the two databases were reclassified by using the IRDR peril

  8. Solar pacing of storm surges, coastal flooding and agricultural losses in the Central Mediterranean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaniewski, David; Marriner, Nick; Morhange, Christophe; Faivre, Sanja; Otto, Thierry; Van Campo, Elise

    2016-04-29

    Storm surges, leading to catastrophic coastal flooding, are amongst the most feared natural hazards due to the high population densities and economic importance of littoral areas. Using the Central Mediterranean Sea as a model system, we provide strong evidence for enhanced periods of storminess leading to coastal flooding during the last 4500 years. We show that long-term correlations can be drawn between storminess and solar activity, acting on cycles of around 2200-yr and 230-yr. We also find that phases of increased storms and coastal flooding have impacted upon mid- to late Holocene agricultural activity on the Adriatic coast. Based on the general trend observed during the second half of the 20(th) century, climate models are predicting a weakening of Mediterranean storminess. By contrast, our new data suggest that a decrease in solar activity will increase and intensify the risk of frequent flooding in coastal areas.

  9. PROLONGED PERFORMANCE OF A HIGH REPETITION LOW FORCE TASK INDUCES BONE ADAPTATION IN YOUNG ADULT RATS, BUT LOSS IN MATURE RATS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massicotte, Vicky S; Frara, Nagat; Harris, Michele Y; Amin, Mamta; Wade, Christine K; Popoff, Steven N; Barbe, Mary F

    2015-01-01

    We have shown that prolonged repetitive reaching and grasping tasks lead to exposure-dependent changes in bone microarchitecture and inflammatory cytokines in young adult rats. Since aging mammals show increased tissue inflammatory cytokines, we sought here to determine if aging, combined with prolonged performance of a repetitive upper extremity task, enhances bone loss. We examined the radius, forearm flexor muscles, and serum from 16 mature (14–18 mo of age) and 14 young adult (2.5–6.5 mo of age) female rats after performance of a high repetition low force (HRLF) reaching and grasping task for 12 weeks. Young adult HRLF rats showed enhanced radial bone growth (e.g., increased trabecular bone volume, osteoblast numbers, bone formation rate, and mid-diaphyseal periosteal perimeter), compared to age-matched controls. Mature HRLF rats showed several indices of radial bone loss (e.g., decreased trabecular bone volume, and increased cortical bone thinning, porosity, resorptive spaces and woven bone formation), increased osteoclast numbers and inflammatory cytokines, compared to age-matched controls and young adult HRLF rats. Mature rats weighed more yet had lower maximum reflexive grip strength, than young adult rats, although each age group was able to pull at the required reach rate (4 reaches/min) and required submaximal pulling force (30 force-grams) for a food reward. Serum estrogen levels and flexor digitorum muscle size were similar in each age group. Thus, mature rats had increased bone degradative changes than in young adult rats performing the same repetitive task for 12 weeks, with increased inflammatory cytokine responses and osteoclast activity as possible causes. PMID:26517953

  10. Prolonged performance of a high repetition low force task induces bone adaptation in young adult rats, but loss in mature rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massicotte, Vicky S; Frara, Nagat; Harris, Michele Y; Amin, Mamta; Wade, Christine K; Popoff, Steven N; Barbe, Mary F

    2015-12-01

    We have shown that prolonged repetitive reaching and grasping tasks lead to exposure-dependent changes in bone microarchitecture and inflammatory cytokines in young adult rats. Since aging mammals show increased tissue inflammatory cytokines, we sought here to determine if aging, combined with prolonged performance of a repetitive upper extremity task, enhances bone loss. We examined the radius, forearm flexor muscles, and serum from 16 mature (14-18 months of age) and 14 young adult (2.5-6.5 months of age) female rats after performance of a high repetition low force (HRLF) reaching and grasping task for 12 weeks. Young adult HRLF rats showed enhanced radial bone growth (e.g., increased trabecular bone volume, osteoblast numbers, bone formation rate, and mid-diaphyseal periosteal perimeter), compared to age-matched controls. Mature HRLF rats showed several indices of radial bone loss (e.g., decreased trabecular bone volume, and increased cortical bone thinning, porosity, resorptive spaces and woven bone formation), increased osteoclast numbers and inflammatory cytokines, compared to age-matched controls and young adult HRLF rats. Mature rats weighed more yet had lower maximum reflexive grip strength, than young adult rats, although each age group was able to pull at the required reach rate (4 reaches/min) and required submaximal pulling force (30 force-grams) for a food reward. Serum estrogen levels and flexor digitorum muscle size were similar in each age group. Thus, mature rats had increased bone degradative changes than in young adult rats performing the same repetitive task for 12 weeks, with increased inflammatory cytokine responses and osteoclast activity as possible causes.

  11. Risk-based damage potential and loss estimation of extreme flooding scenarios in the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Huttenlau

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Within the last decades serious flooding events occurred in many parts of Europe and especially in 2005 the Austrian Federal Province of Tyrol was serious affected. These events in general and particularly the 2005 event have sensitised decision makers and the public. Beside discussions pertaining to protection goals and lessons learnt, the issue concerning potential consequences of extreme and severe flooding events has been raised. Additionally to the general interest of the public, decision makers of the insurance industry, public authorities, and responsible politicians are especially confronted with the question of possible consequences of extreme events. Answers thereof are necessary for the implementation of preventive appropriate risk management strategies. Thereby, property and liability losses reflect a large proportion of the direct tangible losses. These are of great interest for the insurance sector and can be understood as main indicators to interpret the severity of potential events. The natural scientific-technical risk analysis concept provides a predefined and structured framework to analyse the quantities of affected elements at risk, their corresponding damage potentials, and the potential losses. Generally, this risk concept framework follows the process steps hazard analysis, exposition analysis, and consequence analysis. Additionally to the conventional hazard analysis, the potential amount of endangered elements and their corresponding damage potentials were analysed and, thereupon, concrete losses were estimated. These took the specific vulnerability of the various individual elements at risk into consideration. The present flood risk analysis estimates firstly the general exposures of the risk indicators in the study area and secondly analyses the specific exposures and consequences of five extreme event scenarios. In order to precisely identify, localize, and characterize the relevant risk indicators of buildings

  12. Yield loss and economic thresholds of yellow nutsedge in irrigated rice as a function of the onset of flood irrigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nixon da Rosa Westendorff

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Yellow nutsedge (Cyperus esculentus is adapted to flooding and reduces yield in irrigated rice. Information on the competitive ability of this weed with the crop and the size of the economic damage caused is lacking. Mathematical models quantify the damage to crops and support control decision-making. This study aimed to determine yield losses and economic thresholds (ET of this weed in the culture according to weed population and time of onset of irrigation of the crop. The field study was conducted in the agricultural year of 2010/2011 in Pelotas/RS to evaluate the competitive ability of BRS Querência in competition with different population levels of yellow nutsedge and two periods of onset of flood irrigation (14 and 21 days after emergence. The hyperbolic model satisfactorily estimated yield losses caused by yellow nutsedge. Population of yellow nutsedge was the variable most fitted to the model. The delay of seven days for the beginning of rice irrigation causes decrease in competitive ability of BRS Querência, and based on the ET calculated to the price paid for rice, it is necessary between two and thirteen plants m-2 weed to justify the control in the first and second period of irrigation, respectively. Increases in yield, price paid for rice and control efficiency of the herbicide, besides reduction of costs of controlling promote reduction of ET of yellow nutsedge in rice crops, justifying the adoption of control measures even at smaller weed population.

  13. Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB.In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.

  14. Cooperative Flood Loss reduction, A Technical Manual for Communities and Industry,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-06-01

    73 General Adjustments ....................................................... 7 Sprout-Waldron Flood...9 % " - - G R E A T L A K E S A T L A N T I C ~~ ~ 7 32% -,I-’... GREAT BASIN _X1/2%’ M ISSOURI)_ ’ HiO_- \\COLORADO W 73 -1/2% RED SOUTH ATL C_ f l i...ocat ion of equipment , ilid chteck Va I ves. :1 t ernat i Vely a ne, Lit i yit V roo0i can sonnet imes be added onto tile exist i ng house at tie fi rst

  15. Cascading impacts of anthropogenically driven habitat loss: deforestation, flooding, and possible lead poisoning in howler monkeys (Alouatta pigra).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serio-Silva, Juan Carlos; Olguín, Eugenia J; Garcia-Feria, Luis; Tapia-Fierro, Karla; Chapman, Colin A

    2015-01-01

    To construct informed conservation plans, researchers must go beyond understanding readily apparent threats such as habitat loss and bush-meat hunting. They must predict subtle and cascading effects of anthropogenic environmental modifications. This study considered a potential cascading effect of deforestation on the howler monkeys (Alouatta pigra) of Balancán, Mexico. Deforestation intensifies flooding. Thus, we predicted that increased flooding of the Usumacinta River, which creates large bodies of water that slowly evaporate, would produce increased lead content in the soils and plants, resulting in lead exposure in the howler monkeys. The average lead levels were 18.18 ± 6.76 ppm in the soils and 5.85 ± 4.37 ppm in the plants. However, the average lead content of the hair of 13 captured howler monkeys was 24.12 ± 5.84 ppm. The lead levels in the animals were correlated with 2 of 15 blood traits (lactate dehydrogenase and total bilirubin) previously documented to be associated with exposure to lead. Our research illustrates the urgent need to set reference values indicating when adverse impacts of high environmental lead levels occur, whether anthropogenic or natural, and the need to evaluate possible cascading effects of deforestation on primates.

  16. Assessment method for extreme flood disaster losses and its application%极端洪水灾害损失评估方法及应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    仇蕾; 王慧敏; 马树建

    2009-01-01

    Extreme flood is characterized with low frequency but large affecting area and huge economic loss. The natural and social attributions of extreme flood disaster were analyzed in the paper. The current assessment methods are mainly used for common frequently-occurred flood, but not suitable for extreme flood.The spatial information grid of hydrological characteristics and social economic attribution for extreme flood were constructed through referencing the spatial information technology. In further, the spatial information grid model of extreme flood losses was established with the spatial topological relationship of different grid information. The model can not only reflect the spatial characteristics of extreme flood, but also assess the losses of extreme flood through combining relevant database. The model was employed to assess the direct economic loss in main city district north to Songhuajiang River in Harbin City, which indicates the model is feasible in practice for extreme flood disaster losses assessment.%极端洪水灾害具有频率低、影响范围大、损失高等特点,一般常遇洪水的灾害损失评估方法难以适用.分析了极端洪水灾害的自然属性与社会属性,认为极端洪水灾害损失具有时空分布的特性,因此借鉴空间信息格网技术,分别形成了极端洪水水文特性格网与社会经济特性格网,并将其叠加得到具有空间拓扑关系和属性信息的基于GIS的极端洪水损失空间信息格网模型,从而有效地反映了极端洪水灾害的时空特性.结合极端洪水损失率数据库,可评估极端洪水灾害损失.利用该方法评估了1998年特大洪水造成哈尔滨市江南主城区的直接经济损失,实证说明该方法可用于极端洪水灾害损失的评估.

  17. Occurrence of metolachlor and trifluralin losses in the Save river agricultural catchment during floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boithias, Laurie; Sauvage, Sabine; Taghavi, Lobat; Merlina, Georges; Probst, Jean-Luc; Pérez, José Miguel Sánchez

    2011-11-30

    Rising pesticide levels in streams draining intensively managed agricultural land have a detrimental effect on aquatic ecosystems and render water unfit for human consumption. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate daily pesticide transfer at the outlet from an agriculturally intensive catchment of 1110 km(2) (Save river, south-western France). SWAT reliably simulated both dissolved and sorbed metolachlor and trifluralin loads and concentrations at the catchment outlet from 1998 to 2009. On average, 17 kg of metolachlor and 1 kg of trifluralin were exported at outlet each year, with annual rainfall variations considered. Surface runoff was identified as the preferred pathway for pesticide transfer, related to the good correlation between suspended sediment exportation and pesticide, in both soluble and sorbed phases. Pesticide exportation rates at catchment outlet were less than 0.1% of the applied amount. At outlet, SWAT hindcasted that (i) 61% of metolachlor and 52% of trifluralin were exported during high flows and (ii) metolachlor and trifluralin concentrations exceeded European drinking water standards of 0.1 μg L(-1) for individual pesticides during 149 (3.6%) and 17 (0.4%) days of the 1998-2009 period respectively. SWAT was shown to be a promising tool for assessing large catchment river network pesticide contamination in the event of floods but further useful developments of pesticide transfers and partition coefficient processes would need to be investigated.

  18. Floods and Flash Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

  19. Structured Coupling of Probability Loss Distributions: Assessing Joint Flood Risk in Multiple River Basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timonina, Anna; Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Pflug, Georg; Jongman, Brenden; Rojas, Rodrigo

    2015-11-01

    Losses due to natural hazard events can be extraordinarily high and difficult to cope with. Therefore, there is considerable interest to estimate the potential impact of current and future extreme events at all scales in as much detail as possible. As hazards typically spread over wider areas, risk assessment must take into account interrelations between regions. Neglecting such interdependencies can lead to a severe underestimation of potential losses, especially for extreme events. This underestimation of extreme risk can lead to the failure of riskmanagement strategies when they are most needed, namely, in times of unprecedented events. In this article, we suggest a methodology to incorporate such interdependencies in risk via the use of copulas. We demonstrate that by coupling losses, dependencies can be incorporated in risk analysis, avoiding the underestimation of risk. Based on maximum discharge data of river basins and stream networks, we present and discuss different ways to couple loss distributions of basins while explicitly incorporating tail dependencies. We distinguish between coupling methods that require river structure data for the analysis and those that do not. For the later approach we propose a minimax algorithm to choose coupled basin pairs so that the underestimation of risk is avoided and the use of river structure data is not needed. The proposed methodology is especially useful for large-scale analysis and we motivate and apply our method using the case of Romania. The approach can be easily extended to other countries and natural hazards.

  20. Aligning Natural Resource Conservation and Flood Hazard Mitigation in California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Calil

    Full Text Available Flooding is the most common and damaging of all natural disasters in the United States, and was a factor in almost all declared disasters in U.S.Direct flood losses in the U.S. in 2011 totaled $8.41 billion and flood damage has also been on the rise globally over the past century. The National Flood Insurance Program paid out more than $38 billion in claims since its inception in 1968, more than a third of which has gone to the one percent of policies that experienced multiple losses and are classified as "repetitive loss." During the same period, the loss of coastal wetlands and other natural habitat has continued, and funds for conservation and restoration of these habitats are very limited. This study demonstrates that flood losses could be mitigated through action that meets both flood risk reduction and conservation objectives. We found that there are at least 11,243km2 of land in coastal California, which is both flood-prone and has natural resource conservation value, and where a property/structure buyout and habitat restoration project could meet multiple objectives. For example, our results show that in Sonoma County, the extent of land that meets these criteria is 564km2. Further, we explore flood mitigation grant programs that can be a significant source of funds to such projects. We demonstrate that government funded buyouts followed by restoration of targeted lands can support social, environmental, and economic objectives: reduction of flood exposure, restoration of natural resources, and efficient use of limited governmental funds.

  1. Flooding and Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

    2011-01-01

    Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

  2. Power Scaling of the Size Distribution of Economic Loss and Fatalities due to Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Tornadoes, and Floods in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebbens, S. F.; Barton, C. C.; Scott, B. E.

    2016-12-01

    Traditionally, the size of natural disaster events such as hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods is measured in terms of wind speed (m/sec), energy released (ergs), or discharge (m3/sec) rather than by economic loss or fatalities. Economic loss and fatalities from natural disasters result from the intersection of the human infrastructure and population with the size of the natural event. This study investigates the size versus cumulative number distribution of individual natural disaster events for several disaster types in the United States. Economic losses are adjusted for inflation to 2014 USD. The cumulative number divided by the time over which the data ranges for each disaster type is the basis for making probabilistic forecasts in terms of the number of events greater than a given size per year and, its inverse, return time. Such forecasts are of interest to insurers/re-insurers, meteorologists, seismologists, government planners, and response agencies. Plots of size versus cumulative number distributions per year for economic loss and fatalities are well fit by power scaling functions of the form p(x) = Cx-β; where, p(x) is the cumulative number of events with size equal to and greater than size x, C is a constant, the activity level, x is the event size, and β is the scaling exponent. Economic loss and fatalities due to hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and floods are well fit by power functions over one to five orders of magnitude in size. Economic losses for hurricanes and tornadoes have greater scaling exponents, β = 1.1 and 0.9 respectively, whereas earthquakes and floods have smaller scaling exponents, β = 0.4 and 0.6 respectively. Fatalities for tornadoes and floods have greater scaling exponents, β = 1.5 and 1.7 respectively, whereas hurricanes and earthquakes have smaller scaling exponents, β = 0.4 and 0.7 respectively. The scaling exponents can be used to make probabilistic forecasts for time windows ranging from 1 to 1000 years

  3. An initial abstraction and constant loss model, and methods for estimating unit hydrographs, peak streamflows, and flood volumes for urban basins in Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huizinga, Richard J.

    2014-01-01

    Streamflow data, basin characteristics, and rainfall data from 39 streamflow-gaging stations for urban areas in and adjacent to Missouri were used by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Metropolitan Sewer District of St. Louis to develop an initial abstraction and constant loss model (a time-distributed basin-loss model) and a gamma unit hydrograph (GUH) for urban areas in Missouri. Study-specific methods to determine peak streamflow and flood volume for a given rainfall event also were developed.

  4. Combating Floods

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    1998-01-01

    In summer and autumn of 1998, the river vatleys of the Changjiang, Songhua and Nenjiang rivers were stricken by exceptionally serious floods, As of the, 22nd of August, the flooded areas stretched over 52.4 million acres. More than 223 million people were affected by the flood. 4.97 million houses were ruined, economic losses totaled RMB 166 billion, and most tragically, 3,004 people lost their byes. It was one of the costliest disasters in Chinese history. Millions of People’s Liberation Army soldiers and local people joined hands to battle the floodwaters. Thanks to their unified efforts and tenacious struggle, they successfully withstood the rising, water, resumed production and began to rebuild their homes.

  5. A study of different cases of VVER reactor core flooding in a large break loss of coolant accident

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezrukov Yury Alekseevich

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper covers the results of VVER core reflooding studies in fuel assembly (FA mockup of 126 fuel rod simulators with axial power peaking. The experiments were performed for two types of flooding. The first type is top flooding of the empty (steamed FA mockup. The second type is bottom flooding of the FA mockup with level of boiling water. The test parameters are as follows: the range of the supplied power to the bundle is from 40 to 320 kW, the cooling water flow rate is from 0.04 to 1.1 kg/s, the maximum temperature of the fuel rod simulator is 800 °C and the linear heat flux is from 0.1 to 1.0 kW/m. The test results were used for computer code validation.

  6. FLOOD CHARACTERISTICS AND MANAGEMENT ADAPTATIONS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    2011-10-26

    , bearing flood losses and land ... Engineering control of the major tributaries of the Imo River system is required to ..... on previous knowledge of physical nature of flood ... uptake; other factors include a lack of formal titles to.

  7. Flood insurance in Canada: implications for flood management and residential vulnerability to flood hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oulahen, Greg

    2015-03-01

    Insurance coverage of damage caused by overland flooding is currently not available to Canadian homeowners. As flood disaster losses and water damage claims both trend upward, insurers in Canada are considering offering residential flood coverage in order to properly underwrite the risk and extend their business. If private flood insurance is introduced in Canada, it will have implications for the current regime of public flood management and for residential vulnerability to flood hazards. This paper engages many of the competing issues surrounding the privatization of flood risk by addressing questions about whether flood insurance can be an effective tool in limiting exposure to the hazard and how it would exacerbate already unequal vulnerability. A case study investigates willingness to pay for flood insurance among residents in Metro Vancouver and how attitudes about insurance relate to other factors that determine residential vulnerability to flood hazards. Findings indicate that demand for flood insurance is part of a complex, dialectical set of determinants of vulnerability.

  8. Flood Insurance in Canada: Implications for Flood Management and Residential Vulnerability to Flood Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oulahen, Greg

    2015-03-01

    Insurance coverage of damage caused by overland flooding is currently not available to Canadian homeowners. As flood disaster losses and water damage claims both trend upward, insurers in Canada are considering offering residential flood coverage in order to properly underwrite the risk and extend their business. If private flood insurance is introduced in Canada, it will have implications for the current regime of public flood management and for residential vulnerability to flood hazards. This paper engages many of the competing issues surrounding the privatization of flood risk by addressing questions about whether flood insurance can be an effective tool in limiting exposure to the hazard and how it would exacerbate already unequal vulnerability. A case study investigates willingness to pay for flood insurance among residents in Metro Vancouver and how attitudes about insurance relate to other factors that determine residential vulnerability to flood hazards. Findings indicate that demand for flood insurance is part of a complex, dialectical set of determinants of vulnerability.

  9. On Flood Alert

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    lina braces fora particularly dangerous flood season in the wake of disastrous rainstorms Aseries of heavy storms since early May led to severe flooding and landslides in south and southwest China,causing heavy casualties and economic losses. Severe convective weather such as downpours,

  10. 基于综合改进 BP 算法的洪灾损失评估%Evaluation of Flood Disaster Loss Based on the Comprehensive Improvement of BP Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘小生; 胡飞辉

    2014-01-01

    针对传统洪灾损失评估存在的问题,提出了基于综合改进 BP 算法的洪灾损失评估方法。首先,利用自适应学习率调整、附加冲量项和模拟退火算法对标准 BP 算法进行改进,并将它们相互融合;其次,将洪灾损失评估影响因素划分为洪灾致灾因子、防洪能力因子、社会经济因子和地形条件因子,并分别分析它们对洪灾损失评估的影响;然后,建立基于综合改进 BP 算法的洪灾损失评估模型;最后,应用此模型对鄱阳湖区某县进行了洪灾经济损失评估计算。结果表明,该方法计算结果与洪灾损失统计值相差不大,说明该评估模型具有一定的可靠性。%Aiming at the problems which exit in the traditional flood loss evaluation,this paper put forward a comprehensive improved BP algorithm to estimate flood loss. Firstly,improving the BP algorithm,including the use of adaptive learning rate adjustment,additional impulse items and simulated annealing algorithm to improve the standard of BP algorithm,and merging them together to complement their advantages and disadvanta-ges;Followed by the impact of flood disaster loss assessment factors was divided into four factors of flood hazards,flood control capacity,socio -economic and topographical conditions,and analyzed the impact on flood damage assessment;Based on this,established the comprehensive im-proved BP algorithm of flood disaster loss evaluation model ;Finally,applying this model to evaluate the flood disaster economic loss of some county in Poyang Lake area . The results show that the model results and the actual flood disaster loss values are not significant showing the evaluation mod-el having certain reliability.

  11. Geospatial Analysis for Flood-Risk Management, Resilience, and US Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinter, N.; Hui, R.; Conrad, D. R.; Schaefer, K.

    2016-12-01

    The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was established in 1968 to curtail unfettered development on US floodplains and spiraling taxpayer expenditures for disaster relief. Currently NFIP underwrites >5 million policies, providing >1.25 trillion in coverage, and taking in >3.5 billion in annual premiums. Cumulative flood-damage payouts to date exceed premiums collected by >$20 billion. Our group has obtained nationwide databases of NFIP flood-damage claims back to 1972, annual policies since 1994, and selective Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) repetitive losses. Attributes include property, claims, and loss characteristics. Other attributes were stripped to maintain policyholder anonymity. At present, locations are to the nearest 0.1° lat/long, zip code, and by community. We combine NFIP data with GIS information from a variety of other sources. Over the past 44 years, 1,625,470 non-zero flood claims are documented. Numbers of claims and losses have increased over time, even with extreme events (Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy) excluded. Flood losses have occurred within 100-year floodplains (1% annual exceedance), in coastal hazard zones, and 25% of claims occur outside of mapped flood-hazard areas. We hypothesize that a many losses outside of FEMA's designated Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) correlate with (1) outdated map panels, (2) contrasting levels of enforcement and mitigation by state. Other distributed flood losses represent stormwater/drainage damage. Claim rates substantially exceed 1%, both in and outside the SFHA, and for "pre-FIRM" and "post-FIRM" structures. This suggests that ≥100-year floods are occurring more frequently than statutory frequencies suggest. For US homeowners, this suggests that flood insurance is a good deal in a variety of settings. The NFIP data analyzed here contrasts with our group's previous, largely model-driven research. Such empirical flood data exclude model assumptions, but add dizzying array of human and

  12. Repetitive maladaptive behavior: beyond repetition compulsion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowins, Brad

    2010-09-01

    Maladaptive behavior that repeats, typically known as repetition compulsion, is one of the primary reasons that people seek psychotherapy. However, even with psychotherapeutic advances it continues to be extremely difficult to treat. Despite wishes and efforts to the contrary repetition compulsion does not actually achieve mastery, as evidenced by the problem rarely resolving without therapeutic intervention, and the difficulty involved in producing treatment gains. A new framework is proposed, whereby such behavior is divided into behavior of non-traumatic origin and traumatic origin with some overlap occurring. Repetitive maladaptive behavior of non-traumatic origin arises from an evolutionary-based process whereby patterns of behavior frequently displayed by caregivers and compatible with a child's temperament are acquired and repeated. It has a familiarity and ego-syntonic aspect that strongly motivates the person to retain the behavior. Repetitive maladaptive behavior of traumatic origin is characterized by defensive dissociation of the cognitive and emotional components of trauma, making it very difficult for the person to integrate the experience. The strong resistance of repetitive maladaptive behavior to change is based on the influence of both types on personality, and also factors specific to each. Psychotherapy, although very challenging at the best of times, can achieve the mastery wished and strived for, with the aid of several suggestions provided.

  13. Health impacts of floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Weiwei; FitzGerald, Gerard Joseph; Clark, Michele; Hou, Xiang-Yu

    2010-01-01

    Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the medium-term, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.

  14. Fragile Landscape: Impact and Consequences of May 2014 Flash-flood Disaster in the Aqaba Area, Southern Jordan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yahya Farhan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Flash-flood disasters are common in the Aqaba area. It always has a significant impact on the city and causes immense damages to lives and the infrastructure (highways, roads and dwelling areas. Before the 1990s several flash-floods of medium and high magnitudes were recorded (i.e., the 1963 and 1966 floods. However, low and medium magnitude floods (6-7 and 20 year return period have been a recurrent phenomena over the last three decades. The city and the port of Aqaba are considered crucial to the Jordanian economy and cosequently the protection of the city/port from repetitive flooding is important to maintain future urban and economic development. Since the 1960s all formulated development plans for the city and the southern coast have suffered from a remarkable lack of appreciation and awareness regarding environmental hazards, where 90% of the Aqaba area is exposed to flood and sediment hazards. An intensive post-event geomorphic survey was carried out following a flash-flood that struck the Aqaba area on 6-7th May 2014 to identify the damages that occurred and to recognize the main hydrological characteristics of the flash-flood, the terrain favoring flooding, fluvial processes which initiate large gullies and finally to gain experience regarding natural hazards. Hydrological studies related to previous flooding events indicate that the Aqaba area is exposed to recurrent floods of different magnitudes, associated with high peak discharge, gully erosion, slumping and high sediment load. These caused serious damages to the properties and infrastructure, loss of life and hardship for the people of Aqaba. The resultant large gullies are considered an additional cause of instability and a sediment source which threatened the Aqaba area.

  15. Floods, flood losses and flood risk management in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Die vorliegende Habilitation beschäftigt sich mit verschiedenen Aspekten des Hochwasserrisikos in Deutschland. In zwölf Artikeln werden neue wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse über Hochwassergefahren, über Faktoren, die Hochwasserschäden beeinflussen, sowie über effektive private Vorsorgemaßnahmen präsentiert. So wird die jahreszeitliche Verteilung von Hochwasser in ganz Deutschland gezeigt. Weiterhin werden mögliche Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Abflussverhältnisse und Häufigkeiten von Hochw...

  16. Grammatical Change through Repetition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arevart, Supot

    1989-01-01

    The effect of repetition on grammatical change in an unrehearsed talk is examined based on a case study of a single learner. It was found that repetition allows for accuracy monitoring in that errors committed in repeated contexts undergo correction. Implications for teaching are discussed. (23 references) (LB)

  17. The Negative Repetition Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Neil W.; Peterson, Daniel J.

    2013-01-01

    A fundamental property of human memory is that repetition enhances memory. Peterson and Mulligan (2012) recently documented a surprising "negative repetition effect," in which participants who studied a list of cue-target pairs twice recalled fewer targets than a group who studied the pairs only once. Words within a pair rhymed, and…

  18. Roles of repetitive sequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, G.I.

    1991-12-31

    The DNA of higher eukaryotes contains many repetitive sequences. The study of repetitive sequences is important, not only because many have important biological function, but also because they provide information on genome organization, evolution and dynamics. In this paper, I will first discuss some generic effects that repetitive sequences will have upon genome dynamics and evolution. In particular, it will be shown that repetitive sequences foster recombination among, and turnover of, the elements of a genome. I will then consider some examples of repetitive sequences, notably minisatellite sequences and telomere sequences as examples of tandem repeats, without and with respectively known function, and Alu sequences as an example of interspersed repeats. Some other examples will also be considered in less detail.

  19. Roles of repetitive sequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, G.I.

    1991-12-31

    The DNA of higher eukaryotes contains many repetitive sequences. The study of repetitive sequences is important, not only because many have important biological function, but also because they provide information on genome organization, evolution and dynamics. In this paper, I will first discuss some generic effects that repetitive sequences will have upon genome dynamics and evolution. In particular, it will be shown that repetitive sequences foster recombination among, and turnover of, the elements of a genome. I will then consider some examples of repetitive sequences, notably minisatellite sequences and telomere sequences as examples of tandem repeats, without and with respectively known function, and Alu sequences as an example of interspersed repeats. Some other examples will also be considered in less detail.

  20. Development of flood risk mapping in Kota Tinggi, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, T. H.

    2014-02-01

    Flood risk maps provide valuable information for development of flood risk management. Geospatial technology and modeling enable us to monitor natural disasters around the world. Flooding is the most severe natural disaster that causing huge economic losses every year. Flood risk maps are an essential tool for assessing the consequences of flooding. The main aim of this study is to initiate a framework to develop a local-based flood risk map. Flood risk maps can be produced by using integration of geospatial technology and hydrodynamic modeling. Results show that a flood risk map for Kota Tinggi is produced with unsatisfactory information in term of flood damage.

  1. Developing a Malaysia flood model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haseldine, Lucy; Baxter, Stephen; Wheeler, Phil; Thomson, Tina

    2014-05-01

    Faced with growing exposures in Malaysia, insurers have a need for models to help them assess their exposure to flood losses. The need for an improved management of flood risks has been further highlighted by the 2011 floods in Thailand and recent events in Malaysia. The increasing demand for loss accumulation tools in Malaysia has lead to the development of the first nationwide probabilistic Malaysia flood model, which we present here. The model is multi-peril, including river flooding for thousands of kilometres of river and rainfall-driven surface water flooding in major cities, which may cause losses equivalent to river flood in some high-density urban areas. The underlying hazard maps are based on a 30m digital surface model (DSM) and 1D/2D hydraulic modelling in JFlow and RFlow. Key mitigation schemes such as the SMART tunnel and drainage capacities are also considered in the model. The probabilistic element of the model is driven by a stochastic event set based on rainfall data, hence enabling per-event and annual figures to be calculated for a specific insurance portfolio and a range of return periods. Losses are estimated via depth-damage vulnerability functions which link the insured damage to water depths for different property types in Malaysia. The model provides a unique insight into Malaysian flood risk profiles and provides insurers with return period estimates of flood damage and loss to property portfolios through loss exceedance curve outputs. It has been successfully validated against historic flood events in Malaysia and is now being successfully used by insurance companies in the Malaysian market to obtain reinsurance cover.

  2. Repetition and Translation Shifts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Zupan

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Repetition manifests itself in different ways and at different levels of the text. The first basic type of repetition involves complete recurrences; in which a particular textual feature repeats in its entirety. The second type involves partial recurrences; in which the second repetition of the same textual feature includes certain modifications to the first occurrence. In the article; repetitive patterns in Edgar Allan Poe’s short story “The Fall of the House of Usher” and its Slovene translation; “Konec Usherjeve hiše”; are compared. The author examines different kinds of repetitive patterns. Repetitions are compared at both the micro- and macrostructural levels. As detailed analyses have shown; considerable microstructural translation shifts occur in certain types of repetitive patterns. Since these are not only occasional; sporadic phenomena; but are of a relatively high frequency; they reduce the translated text’s potential for achieving some of the gothic effects. The macrostructural textual property particularly affected by these shifts is the narrator’s experience as described by the narrative; which suffers a reduction in intensity.

  3. Resilience to flooding: Draft building code

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clarkson, J.D.; Braun, K.; Desoto-Duncan, A.; Forsyth, G.; De Gijt, J.G.; Huber, N.P.; Miller, D.; Rigo, P.; Sullivan, D.

    2013-01-01

    A significant issue associated Flood Defence Systems (FDS) is the difficulty of predicting how these structures will behave when inevitably they have been loaded beyond their designed capacity by a flood. The flood can cause these structures to fail catastrophically with loss of life and substantial

  4. Relationship Between Surplus Floodwater in Flood Season and Coupling Risk of Soil and Water Loss%汛期洪水弃水与水土流失耦合风险关系分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李勋贵; 魏霞

    2011-01-01

    暴雨洪水是导致流域水土流失的一个重要因素,水土流失又会引起径流泥沙含量的增加,使汛期洪水弃水量加大,成为汛期洪水灾害发生的重要原因。以泾河流域为例,根据信息熵理论和USLE模型,提出约束信息量因子BI和水土流失耦合风险概念及其计算式,建立汛期洪水弃水系数与水土流失耦合风险等级之间的关系式,结果表明:①泾河张家山站以上流域1986、1995和2000年的水土流失耦合风险等级呈现出递减的趋势,分别为2.544、2.542和2.472;②汛期洪水弃水系数与水土流失耦合风险等级之间存在着显著正相关关系。%Rainstorm flood is one important factor resulting in soil and water loss of watershed.The soil and water loss can cause the increase of sediment concentration in runoff,which will add more surplus flood in flood season and consequently become an important reason for the occurrence of flood disaster.A factor of binding information(BI) was presented based on the information entropy theory.The BI is able to describe the uncertainty degree(i.e.,risk value) hiding in system before events happen.According to the BI values of different controllable-observable objectives(COOs),the changing situations of uncertainty degree that events evolve from a COO to another one can be uncovered.So the BI is convenient to test risk changing of soil and water loss and reflect its evolution trend.In addition,the Universal Soil Loss Equation(USLE) has a preferable merit to describe and maintain the details of soil and water loss.Considering these characteristics of the USLE and BI,a notion of risk,coupling risk of soil and water loss,was proposed.The coupling risk is defined as the superposition results multiplied the BI by the factors in USLE.It can not only maintain the details of soil and water loss,but also describe the evolution processes of soil and water loss risk.On the basis of the presented coupling risk

  5. Trialogue: Preparation, Repetition and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oberg, Antoinette; And Others

    1996-01-01

    This paper interrogates both curriculum theory and the limits and potentials of textual forms. A set of overlapping discourses (a trialogue) focuses on inquiring into the roles of obsession and repetition in creating deeply interpretive locations for understanding. (SM)

  6. On Flood Alert

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI LI

    2010-01-01

    @@ Aseries of heavy storms since early May led to severe flooding and landslides in south and southwest China,causing heaw casualties and economic losses.Severe convective weather such as downpours,gusts,hail and thunderstorms attacked these areas over a week from May 5.

  7. Flood model for Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

    2017-04-01

    Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula

  8. Crowdsourcing detailed flood data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walliman, Nicholas; Ogden, Ray; Amouzad*, Shahrzhad

    2015-04-01

    Over the last decade the average annual loss across the European Union due to flooding has been 4.5bn Euros, but increasingly intense rainfall, as well as population growth, urbanisation and the rising costs of asset replacements, may see this rise to 23bn Euros a year by 2050. Equally disturbing are the profound social costs to individuals, families and communities which in addition to loss of lives include: loss of livelihoods, decreased purchasing and production power, relocation and migration, adverse psychosocial effects, and hindrance of economic growth and development. Flood prediction, management and defence strategies rely on the availability of accurate information and flood modelling. Whilst automated data gathering (by measurement and satellite) of the extent of flooding is already advanced it is least reliable in urban and physically complex geographies where often the need for precise estimation is most acute. Crowdsourced data of actual flood events is a potentially critical component of this allowing improved accuracy in situations and identifying the effects of local landscape and topography where the height of a simple kerb, or discontinuity in a boundary wall can have profound importance. Mobile 'App' based data acquisition using crowdsourcing in critical areas can combine camera records with GPS positional data and time, as well as descriptive data relating to the event. This will automatically produce a dataset, managed in ArcView GIS, with the potential for follow up calls to get more information through structured scripts for each strand. Through this local residents can provide highly detailed information that can be reflected in sophisticated flood protection models and be core to framing urban resilience strategies and optimising the effectiveness of investment. This paper will describe this pioneering approach that will develop flood event data in support of systems that will advance existing approaches such as developed in the in the UK

  9. 18 CFR 801.8 - Flood plain management and protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Flood plain management... COMMISSION GENERAL POLICIES § 801.8 Flood plain management and protection. (a) Periodic inundation of lands along waterways has not discouraged development of flood hazards areas. Major floods cause loss of...

  10. Effectiveness and reliability of emergency measures for flood prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Kok, M.

    2014-01-01

    Floods in the summer of 2013 in Central Europe demonstrated once again that floods account for a large part of damage and loss of life caused by natural disasters. During flood threats emergency measures, such as sand bags and big bags, are often applied to strengthen the flood defences and attempt

  11. Effectiveness and reliability of emergency measures for flood prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lendering, K.T.; Jonkman, S.N.; Kok, M.

    2014-01-01

    Floods in the summer of 2013 in Central Europe demonstrated once again that floods account for a large part of damage and loss of life caused by natural disasters. During flood threats emergency measures, such as sand bags and big bags, are often applied to strengthen the flood defences and attempt

  12. Flood marks of the 1813 flood in the Central Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miklanek, Pavol; Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Pramuk, Branislav; Bačová Mitková, Veronika

    2014-05-01

    was by 38 cm lower in May 2010 than during the 1813 flood, but by 5 cm higher than in 1903, and also higher than all the other catastrophic floods that hit Cracow during the last 200 years. The analysis of documentary information is a contribution to the growing pool of material on pre-instrumental floods in Central and Eastern Europe. The long-term flood records may reduce uncertainty in hydrological analyses and contribute to reducing losses of human lives and property. Some historical cases may be used as analogues of the recent floods and very well documented recent events are important for complex understanding of similar past floods Acknowledgement This work was supported by the Science and Technology Assistance Agency under contract No. APVV-0015-10. The paper was prepared during the "Centre of excellence for integrated flood protection of land" (ITMS 26240120004) project implementation supported by the Research & Development Operational Programme funded by the ERDF.

  13. Concept of Flood Risk Map and Its Application

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHENG Yuanchang

    2001-01-01

    @@ 1 The concept of flood risk map and its mapping procedure Flood risk management is the process for analysis and assessment of flood risks as well as to form nd implement the disaster mitigation plans. Flood risk analysis is the basic work of flood risk assessment and management that can provide people with the possibilities of flood occurrence and its risk in specific areas and consequently raise the public awareness of flood help to form a reasonable flood prevention plan. However, flood risk mapping is a popular measure adopted by many countries and it provides possible flood areas and water levels as well as possible losses in a friendly way. To form a flood risk map, it is neccessary to allocate the historical information,compute the flood risk and analyze the data.

  14. Understanding the effects of past flood events and perceived and estimated flood risks on individuals' voluntary flood insurance purchase behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Wanyun; Xian, Siyuan; Lin, Ning; Kunreuther, Howard; Jackson, Nida; Goidel, Kirby

    2017-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the economic damage from flooding in the coastal areas has greatly increased due to rapid coastal development coupled with possible climate change impacts. One effective way to mitigate excessive economic losses from flooding is to purchase flood insurance. Only a minority of coastal residents however have taken this preventive measure. Using original survey data for all coastal counties of the United States Gulf Coast merged with contextual data, this study examines the effects of external influences and perceptions of flood-related risks on individuals' voluntary behaviors to purchase flood insurance. It is found that the estimated flood hazard conveyed through the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA's) flood maps, the intensities and consequences of past storms and flooding events, and perceived flood-related risks significantly affect individual's voluntary purchase of flood insurance. This behavior is also influenced by home ownership, trust in local government, education, and income. These findings have several important policy implications. First, FEMA's flood maps have been effective in conveying local flood risks to coastal residents, and correspondingly influencing their decisions to voluntarily seek flood insurance in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Flood maps therefore should be updated frequently to reflect timely and accurate information about flood hazards. Second, policy makers should design strategies to increase homeowners' trust in the local government, to better communicate flood risks with residents, to address the affordability issue for the low-income, and better inform less educated homeowners through various educational programs. Future studies should examine the voluntary flood insurance behavior across countries that are vulnerable to flooding. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Repetition and Reactance in Graham’s "Underneath" Poems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roghayeh Farsi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The present paper gives a detailed analysis and interpretation of 16 poems in Jorie Graham's collection, Swarm (2000, which bear "UNDERNEATH" as their main titles. The poems are marked with different types of repetition such as graphological repetition, word, phrase, and sentential repetition, semantic repetition, and syntactic repetition. The study draws on Lakoff and Johnson's theories on metaphor and Brehm and Brehm’s reactance theory. It is argued "underneath" is a conceptual (orientational metaphor which signifies a state of being limited, lack of control and freedom, and loss of power. The paper investigates the speaker's reactant behavior in "Underneath" poems, seeking a way to restore her lost freedom. Reactance behaviors can be skepticism, inertia, aggression, and resistance. It is concluded despite her thematic inertia, representing her submission to the oppressed state, her stylistic reactance reflected in repetitions, innovations, and disruptive diction stands for her attempts to regain her lost control.

  16. Influence of flood risk characteristics on flood insurance demand: a comparison between Germany and the Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifert, I.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2013-07-01

    The existence of sufficient demand for insurance coverage against infrequent losses is important for the adequate function of insurance markets for natural disaster risks. This study investigates how characteristics of flood risk influence household flood insurance demand based on household surveys undertaken in Germany and the Netherlands. Our analyses confirm the hypothesis that willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance against medium-probability medium-impact flood risk in Germany is higher than WTP for insurance against low-probability high-impact flood risk in the Netherlands. These differences in WTP can be related to differences in flood experience, individual risk perceptions, and the charity hazard. In both countries there is a need to stimulate flood insurance demand if a relevant role of private insurance in flood loss compensation is regarded as desirable, for example, by making flood insurance compulsory or by designing information campaigns.

  17. Drivers of flood damage on event level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreibich, H.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Apel, H.

    2016-01-01

    Flood risk is dynamic and influenced by many processes related to hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood damage increased significantly over the past decades, however, resulting overall economic loss per event is an aggregated indicator and it is difficult to attribute causes to this increasing...... trend. Much has been learned about damaging processes during floods at the micro-scale, e.g. building level. However, little is known about the main factors determining the amount of flood damage on event level. Thus, we analyse and compare paired flood events, i.e. consecutive, similar damaging floods...... that occurred in the same area. In analogy to ’Paired catchment studies’ - a well-established method in hydrology to understand how changes in land use affect streamflow – we will investigate how and why resulting flood damage in a region differed between the first and second consecutive flood events. One...

  18. Novel porcine repetitive elements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nonneman Dan J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Repetitive elements comprise ~45% of mammalian genomes and are increasingly known to impact genomic function by contributing to the genomic architecture, by direct regulation of gene expression and by affecting genomic size, diversity and evolution. The ubiquity and increasingly understood importance of repetitive elements contribute to the need to identify and annotate them. We set out to identify previously uncharacterized repetitive DNA in the porcine genome. Once found, we characterized the prevalence of these repeats in other mammals. Results We discovered 27 repetitive elements in 220 BACs covering 1% of the porcine genome (Comparative Vertebrate Sequencing Initiative; CVSI. These repeats varied in length from 55 to 1059 nucleotides. To estimate copy numbers, we went to an independent source of data, the BAC-end sequences (Wellcome Trust Sanger Institute, covering approximately 15% of the porcine genome. Copy numbers in BAC-ends were less than one hundred for 6 repeat elements, between 100 and 1000 for 16 and between 1,000 and 10,000 for 5. Several of the repeat elements were found in the bovine genome and we have identified two with orthologous sites, indicating that these elements were present in their common ancestor. None of the repeat elements were found in primate, rodent or dog genomes. We were unable to identify any of the replication machinery common to active transposable elements in these newly identified repeats. Conclusion The presence of both orthologous and non-orthologous sites indicates that some sites existed prior to speciation and some were generated later. The identification of low to moderate copy number repetitive DNA that is specific to artiodactyls will be critical in the assembly of livestock genomes and studies of comparative genomics.

  19. Lateral Flooding Associated to Wave Flood Generation on River Surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Núñez, C.; Parrot, J.-F.

    2016-06-01

    This research provides a wave flood simulation using a high resolution LiDAR Digital Terrain Model. The simulation is based on the generation of waves of different amplitudes that modify the river level in such a way that water invades the adjacent areas. The proposed algorithm firstly reconstitutes the original river surface of the studied river section and then defines the percentage of water loss when the wave floods move downstream. This procedure was applied to a gently slope area in the lower basin of Coatzacoalcos river, Veracruz (Mexico) defining the successive areas where lateral flooding occurs on its downstream movement.

  20. FLOOD AND FLOOD CONTROL OF THE YELLOW RIVER

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wenxue LI; Huirang WANG; Yunqi SU; Naiqian JIANG; Yuanfeng ZHANG

    2002-01-01

    The Yellow River is the cradle of China. It had long been the center of politics, economics and culture of China in history. Large coverage flood disaster occurred frequently in the Yellow River basin and the losses were often heavy. Thus, the Yellow River is also considered as the serious hidden danger of China. Since the founding of new China, structural and non-structural systems of flood control have been established basically. Tremendous successes have been made on flood control. Into the 21century, flood control standard of the Lower Yellow River has been increased significantly with the operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir. However, problems of the Yellow River are complicated and the tasks for solving these problems are arduous. Particularly, the sedimentation problem can't be solved completely in the near future. The situation of "suspended river" and threat of flood will long exist.Therefore, supported by rapid social and economical development of the nation and relied on advanced technology, the flood control system shall be perfected. Meantime, study of the Yellow River shall be enhanced in order to better understand the flood, get with it and use it thus to reduce flood disaster.

  1. Flooding On

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YIN PUMIN

    2010-01-01

    @@ Drenched riverside towns in central and south parts of China were preparing for even worse flooding as water levels in the country's huge rivers surged and rainstorms continued. As of July 27,accumulated precipitation since June 16 in 70 percent of the drainage areas of the Yangtze River had exceeded 50 mm,after three rounds of rainstorms,said Cai Qihua,Deputy Director of the Yangtze River Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters.

  2. What are the hydro-meteorological controls on flood characteristics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nied, Manuela; Schröter, Kai; Lüdtke, Stefan; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Merz, Bruno

    2017-02-01

    Flood events can be expressed by a variety of characteristics such as flood magnitude and extent, event duration or incurred loss. Flood estimation and management may benefit from understanding how the different flood characteristics relate to the hydrological catchment conditions preceding the event and to the meteorological conditions throughout the event. In this study, we therefore propose a methodology to investigate the hydro-meteorological controls on different flood characteristics, based on the simulation of the complete flood risk chain from the flood triggering precipitation event, through runoff generation in the catchment, flood routing and possible inundation in the river system and floodplains to flood loss. Conditional cumulative distribution functions and regression tree analysis delineate the seasonal varying flood processes and indicate that the effect of the hydrological pre-conditions, i.e. soil moisture patterns, and of the meteorological conditions, i.e. weather patterns, depends on the considered flood characteristic. The methodology is exemplified for the Elbe catchment. In this catchment, the length of the build-up period, the event duration and the number of gauges undergoing at least a 10-year flood are governed by weather patterns. The affected length and the number of gauges undergoing at least a 2-year flood are however governed by soil moisture patterns. In case of flood severity and loss, the controlling factor is less pronounced. Severity is slightly governed by soil moisture patterns whereas loss is slightly governed by weather patterns. The study highlights that flood magnitude and extent arise from different flood generation processes and concludes that soil moisture patterns as well as weather patterns are not only beneficial to inform on possible flood occurrence but also on the involved flood processes and resulting flood characteristics.

  3. Tangible and Intangible Flood damage evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frongia Sara

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding and flash floods that cause significant economic and social damage have been widely studied in the last few decades. The European Commission Flood Directive 2007/60 Flood Risk Management Plans require the assessment of potential damage to give an appreciation of the magnitude of the consequences of a flood event and so help stakeholders to use a cost benefit approach to planning flood mitigation measures. This paper evaluates the direct tangible flood damage applying the JRC water depth-damage functions for the European territory to estimate the potential economic damage. Intangible damage is evaluated with the Life Safety Model (LSM to study the dynamic interactions among people, vehicles, buildings and the flood wave. LSM assesses potential flood damage and allows the development of a Flood Evacuation Plan in case of an emergency, underlining the evacuation routes adopted by people and vehicles. This enables emergency managers to avoid evacuation bottleneck problems and identify areas of potential high mortality. The impact of changes such as road network improvements, the location of safe havens and timing of flood warnings can be assessed in terms of potential loss of life. The developed methodology has been applied on the Sardinian Flood Risk Management Plan pilot basin, the Coghinas river lowland basin.

  4. Probabilistic Flood Defence Assessment Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The WTI2017 project is responsible for the development of flood defence assessment tools for the 3600 km of Dutch primary flood defences, dikes/levees, dunes and hydraulic structures. These tools are necessary, as per January 1st 2017, the new flood risk management policy for the Netherlands will be implemented. Then, the seven decades old design practice (maximum water level methodology of 1958 and two decades old safety standards (and maximum hydraulic load methodology of 1996 will formally be replaced by a more risked based approach for the national policy in flood risk management. The formal flood defence assessment is an important part of this new policy, especially for flood defence managers, since national and regional funding for reinforcement is based on this assessment. This new flood defence policy is based on a maximum allowable probability of flooding. For this, a maximum acceptable individual risk was determined at 1/100 000 per year, this is the probability of life loss of for every protected area in the Netherlands. Safety standards of flood defences were then determined based on this acceptable individual risk. The results were adjusted based on information from cost -benefit analysis, societal risk and large scale societal disruption due to the failure of critical infrastructure e.g. power stations. The resulting riskbased flood defence safety standards range from a 300 to a 100 000 year return period for failure. Two policy studies, WV21 (Safety from floods in the 21st century and VNK-2 (the National Flood Risk in 2010 provided the essential information to determine the new risk based safety standards for flood defences. The WTI2017 project will provide the safety assessment tools based on these new standards and is thus an essential element for the implementation of this policy change. A major issue to be tackled was the development of user-friendly tools, as the new assessment is to be carried out by personnel of the

  5. MIMICRY, DIFFERENCE AND REPETITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Mendes de Souza

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses Homi K. Bhabha’s concept of mimicry in a broader context, other than that of cultural studies and post-colonial studies, bringing together other concepts, such as that of Gilles Deleuze in Difference and repetition, among other texts, and other names, such as Silviano Santiago, Jorge Luís Borges, Franz Kafka and Giorgio Agamben. As a partial conclusion, the article intends to oppose Bhabha’s freudian-marxist view to Five propositions on Psychoanalysis (1973, Gilles Deleuze’s text about Psychoanalysis published right after his book The Anti-Oedipus.

  6. Karst flash floods: an example from the Dinaric karst (Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Bonacci

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods constitute one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. This paper explains the karst flash flood phenomenon, which represents a special kind of flash flood. As the majority of flash floods karst flash floods are caused by intensive short-term precipitation in an area whose surface rarely exceeds a few square kilometres. The characteristics of all flash floods are their short duration, small areal extent, high flood peaks and rapid flows, and heavy loss of life and property. Karst flash floods have specific characteristics due to special conditions for water circulation, which exist in karst terrains. During karst flash floods a sudden rise of groundwater levels occurs, which causes the appearance of numerous, unexpected, abundant and temporary karst springs. This paper presents in detail an example of a karst flash flood in the Marina bay (Dinaric karst region of Croatia, which occurred in December 2004.

  7. Flooding On

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Drenched riverside towns in central and south parts of China were preparing for even worse flooding aswater levels in the country’s huge rivers surged and rainstorms continued.As of July 27,accumulated precipitation since June 16 in 70 percent of the drainage

  8. Loss and damage affecting the public health sector and society resulting from flooding and flash floods in Brazil between 2010 and 2014 - based on data from national and global information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minervino, Aline Costa; Duarte, Elisabeth Carmen

    2016-03-01

    This article outlines the results of a descriptive study that analyses loss and damage caused by hydrometeorological disasters in Brazil between 2010 and 2014 using the EM DAT (global) and S2iD (national) databases. The analysis shows major differences in the total number of disaster events included in the databases (EM-DAT = 36; S2iD = 4,070) and estimated costs of loss and damage (EM-DAT - R$ 9.2 billion; S2iD - R$331.4 billion). The analysis also shows that the five states most affected by these events are Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Paraná in Brazil's South and Southeast regions and that these results are consistent with the findings of other studies. The costs of disasters were highest for housing, public infrastructure works, collectively used public facilities, other public service facilities, and state health and education facilities. The costs associated with public health facilities were also high. Despite their limitations, both databases demonstrated their usefulness for determining seasonal and long-term trends and patterns, and risk areas, and thus assist decision makers in identifying areas that are most affected by and vulnerable to natural disasters.

  9. Characterization of floods in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saharia, Manabendra; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Vergara, Humberto; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Hong, Yang

    2017-05-01

    Floods have gained increasing global significance in the recent past due to their devastating nature and potential for causing significant economic and human losses. Until now, flood characterization studies in the United States have been limited due to the lack of a comprehensive database matching flood characteristics such as peak discharges and flood duration with geospatial and geomorphologic information. The availability of a representative and long archive of flooding events spanning 78 years over a variety of hydroclimatic regions results in a spatially and temporally comprehensive flood characterization over the continental U.S. This study, for the first time, employs a large-event database that is based on actual National Weather Service (NWS) definitions of floods instead of the frequently-adopted case study or frequentist approach, allowing us to base our findings on real definitions of floods. It examines flooding characteristics to identify how space and time scales of floods vary with climatic regimes and geomorphology. Flood events were characterized by linking flood response variables in gauged basins to spatially distributed variables describing climatology, geomorphology, and topography. The primary findings of this study are that the magnitude of flooding is highest is regions such as West Coast and southeastern U.S. which experience the most extraordinary precipitation. The seasonality of flooding varies greatly from maxima during the cool season on the West Coast, warm season in the desert Southwest, and early spring in the Southeast. The fastest responding events tend to be in steep basins of the arid Southwest caused by intense monsoon thunderstorms and steep terrain. The envelope curves of unit peak discharge are consistent with those reported for Europe and worldwide. But significant seasonal variability was observed in floods of the U.S. compared to Europe that is attributed to the diversity of causative rainfall ranging from synoptic

  10. Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Rözer

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.

  11. Economic hotspots: Visualizing Vulnerability to Flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veen, van der A.; Logtmeijer, C.J.J.

    2005-01-01

    We simulate a large-scale flooding in the province of South-Holland in the economic centre of the Netherlands. In traditional research, damage due to flooding is computed with a unit loss method coupling land use information to depth-damage functions. Normally only direct costs are incorporated as a

  12. Repetitive ERTS-1 observations of surface water variability along rivers and low-lying areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Salomonson, V. V.

    1973-01-01

    The Earth Resources Technology Satellite, ERTS-1, provides an 18 day repetitive coverage capability and observations in the 0.8-1.1 micron spectral region where the contrast between water and adjacent surfaces is relatively large. Using these capabilities, observations in Virginia, Iowa, Missouri, and California have been acquired showing distinct patterns of flooding. Repetitive views of these areas before and after flooding have been examined, and flood mapping was performed. Sloughs in California can be seen to expand in terms of the area covered by standing water as time extends from summer to autumn. The results indicate that ERTS-1 imagery can be a valuable adjunct to conventional and aircraft survey methods for ascertaining the amount of area covered by water or affected by flooding.

  13. Repetition in Waiting for Godot

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李想; 魏妍

    2015-01-01

    Waiting for Godot is one of the most famous plays written by Samuel Barclay Beckett, and also is the founding work of“Theatre of the Absurd”. In the drama, repetitive phenomena shed light on the whole construction considerably. All the charac-ters were helpless and unthinking. Their dialogues were simple, nonsense and repetitive. Two scenes were cyclical. Repetition was used subtly in order to express the theme of the play, showing mental crisis after depravation of WWII.

  14. After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

    2015-04-01

    In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk

  15. Briefing: Lessons learned from failures of flood defences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Schweckendiek, T.

    2015-01-01

    Failure of flood defences during extreme events can lead to enormous damage and loss of life. This paper presents lessons learned from investigations of flood events over recent years, including the 2005 flooding in New Orleans, USA, caused by hurricane Katrina. Based on these findings, new developm

  16. Briefing: Lessons learned from failures of flood defences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Schweckendiek, T.

    2015-01-01

    Failure of flood defences during extreme events can lead to enormous damage and loss of life. This paper presents lessons learned from investigations of flood events over recent years, including the 2005 flooding in New Orleans, USA, caused by hurricane Katrina. Based on these findings, new

  17. Briefing: Lessons learned from failures of flood defences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkman, S.N.; Schweckendiek, T.

    2015-01-01

    Failure of flood defences during extreme events can lead to enormous damage and loss of life. This paper presents lessons learned from investigations of flood events over recent years, including the 2005 flooding in New Orleans, USA, caused by hurricane Katrina. Based on these findings, new developm

  18. Tsunami flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geist, Eric; Jones, Henry; McBride, Mark; Fedors, Randy

    2013-01-01

    Panel 5 focused on tsunami flooding with an emphasis on Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) as derived from its counterpart, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) that determines seismic ground-motion hazards. The Panel reviewed current practices in PTHA and determined the viability of extending the analysis to extreme design probabilities (i.e., 10-4 to 10-6). In addition to earthquake sources for tsunamis, PTHA for extreme events necessitates the inclusion of tsunamis generated by submarine landslides, and treatment of the large attendant uncertainty in source characterization and recurrence rates. Tsunamis can be caused by local and distant earthquakes, landslides, volcanism, and asteroid/meteorite impacts. Coastal flooding caused by storm surges and seiches is covered in Panel 7. Tsunamis directly tied to earthquakes, the similarities with (and path forward offered by) the PSHA approach for PTHA, and especially submarine landslide tsunamis were a particular focus of Panel 5.

  19. Integrated water resource and flood risk management: comparing the US and the EU

    OpenAIRE

    Serra-Llobet Anna; Conrad Esther; Schaefer Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    Floods are the most important natural hazard in the EU and US, causing 700 deaths and at least €25 billion in insured economic losses in Europe since 1998, and causing nearly $10 billion annual average flood losses in the US. Flood control is commonly viewed as a matter of building dykes, dams, and other structures, but effective flood management within the perspective of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) must address multiple components of the flood risk management cycle (Figure 1)...

  20. Understanding maximal repetitions in strings

    CERN Document Server

    Crochemore, Maxime

    2008-01-01

    The cornerstone of any algorithm computing all repetitions in a string of length n in O(n) time is the fact that the number of runs (or maximal repetitions) is O(n). We give a simple proof of this result. As a consequence of our approach, the stronger result concerning the linearity of the sum of exponents of all runs follows easily.

  1. Exploring interactions between force, repetition and posture on intervertebral disc height loss and bulging in isolated porcine cervical functional spinal units from sub-acute-failure magnitudes of cyclic compressive loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gooyers, Chad E; Callaghan, Jack P

    2015-10-15

    Most in vitro studies are limited in the ability to partition intervertebral disc (IVD) height loss from total specimen height loss since the net changes in the actuator position of the materials testing system simply reflect net changes to functional spinal units (FSUs) used for testing. Three levels of peak compressive force, three cycle rates and two dynamic postural conditions were examined using a full-factorial design. Cyclic compressive force was applied using a time-varying waveform with synchronous flexion/extension for 5000 cycles. Surface scans from the anterior aspect of the IVD were recorded in a neutral and flexed posture before and after the cyclic loading protocol using a 3D laser scanner to characterise changes in IVD height loss and bulging. A significant three-way interaction (p=0.0092) between the magnitude of peak compressive force, cycle rate and degree of postural deviation was observed in cycle-varying specimen height loss data. A significant main effect of peak compressive force (p=0.0003) was also observed in IVD height loss calculated from the surface profiles of the IVD. The relative contribution of IVD height loss (measured on the anterior surface) to total specimen height loss across experimental conditions varied considerably, ranging from 19% to 58%. Postural deviation was the only factor that significantly affected the magnitude of peak AF bulge (p=0.0016). This investigation provides evidence that total specimen height loss is not an accurate depiction of cycle-varying changes in the IVD across a range of in vivo scenarios that were replicated with in vitro testing.

  2. Cyber Surveillance for Flood Disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Lo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional heavy rainfall is usually caused by the influence of extreme weather conditions. Instant heavy rainfall often results in the flooding of rivers and the neighboring low-lying areas, which is responsible for a large number of casualties and considerable property loss. The existing precipitation forecast systems mostly focus on the analysis and forecast of large-scale areas but do not provide precise instant automatic monitoring and alert feedback for individual river areas and sections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an easy method to automatically monitor the flood object of a specific area, based on the currently widely used remote cyber surveillance systems and image processing methods, in order to obtain instant flooding and waterlogging event feedback. The intrusion detection mode of these surveillance systems is used in this study, wherein a flood is considered a possible invasion object. Through the detection and verification of flood objects, automatic flood risk-level monitoring of specific individual river segments, as well as the automatic urban inundation detection, has become possible. The proposed method can better meet the practical needs of disaster prevention than the method of large-area forecasting. It also has several other advantages, such as flexibility in location selection, no requirement of a standard water-level ruler, and a relatively large field of view, when compared with the traditional water-level measurements using video screens. The results can offer prompt reference for appropriate disaster warning actions in small areas, making them more accurate and effective.

  3. Elk River Watershed - Flood Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

    2014-12-01

    Flooding has the potential to cause significant impacts to economic activities as well as to disrupt or displace populations. Changing climate regimes such as extreme precipitation events increase flood vulnerability and put additional stresses on infrastructure. Potential flooding from just under 100 (2009 NPRI Reviewed Facility Data Release, Environment Canada) toxic tailings ponds located in Canada increase risk to human safety and the environment. One such geotechnical failure spilt billions of litres of toxic tailings into the Fraser River watershed, British Columbia, when a tailings pond dam breach occurred in August 2014. Damaged and washed out roadways cut access to essential services as seen by the extensive floods that occurred in Saskatchewan and Manitoba in July 2014, and in Southern Alberta in 2013. Recovery efforts from events such as these can be lengthy, and have substantial social and economic impacts both in loss of revenue and cost of repair. The objective of this study is to investigate existing conditions in the Elk River watershed and model potential future hydrological changes that can increase flood risk hazards. By analyzing existing hydrology, meteorology, land cover, land use, economic, and settlement patterns a baseline is established for existing conditions in the Elk River watershed. Coupling the Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) high-resolution spatial hydrometeorological model with flood hazard analysis methodology, high-resolution flood vulnerability base line maps are created using historical climate conditions. Further work in 2015 will examine possible impacts for a range of climate change and land use change scenarios to define changes to future flood risk and vulnerability.

  4. Perceptual Repetition Blindness Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochhaus, Larry; Johnston, James C.; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    The phenomenon of repetition blindness (RB) may reveal a new limitation on human perceptual processing. Recently, however, researchers have attributed RB to post-perceptual processes such as memory retrieval and/or reporting biases. The standard rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) paradigm used in most RB studies is, indeed, open to such objections. Here we investigate RB using a "single-frame" paradigm introduced by Johnston and Hale (1984) in which memory demands are minimal. Subjects made only a single judgement about whether one masked target word was the same or different than a post-target probe. Confidence ratings permitted use of signal detection methods to assess sensitivity and bias effects. In the critical condition for RB a precue of the post-target word was provided prior to the target stimulus (identity precue), so that the required judgement amounted to whether the target did or did not repeat the precue word. In control treatments, the precue was either an unrelated word or a dummy.

  5. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  6. Drivers of flood damage on event level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is dynamic and influenced by many processes related to hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Flood damage increased significantly over the past decades, however, resulting overall economic loss per event is an aggregated indicator and it is difficult to attribute causes to this increasing trend. Much has been learned about damaging processes during floods at the micro-scale, e.g. building level. However, little is known about the main factors determining the amount of flood damage on event level. Thus, we analyse and compare paired flood events, i.e. consecutive, similar damaging floods that occurred in the same area. In analogy to 'Paired catchment studies' - a well-established method in hydrology to understand how changes in land use affect streamflow - we will investigate how and why resulting flood damage in a region differed between the first and second consecutive flood events. One example are the 2002 and 2013 floods in the Elbe and Danube catchments in Germany. The 2002 flood caused the highest economic damage (EUR 11600 million) due to a natural hazard event in Germany. Damage was so high due to extreme flood hazard triggered by extreme precipitation and a high number of resulting dyke breaches. Additionally, exposure hotspots like the city of Dresden at the Elbe river as well as some smaller municipalities at the river Mulde (e.g. Grimma, Eilenburg, Bitterfeld, Dessau) were severely impacted. However, affected parties and authorities learned from the extreme flood in 2002, and many governmental flood risk programs and initiatives were launched. Considerable improvements since 2002 occurred on many levels that deal with flood risk reduction and disaster response, in particular in 1) increased flood prevention by improved spatial planning, 2) an increased number of property-level mitigation measures, 3) more effective early warning and improved coordination of disaster response and 4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defence systems and their

  7. Effects of grid alloy on the properties of positive-plate corrosion layers in lead/acid batteries. Implications for premature capacity loss under repetitive deep-discharge cycling service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollenkamp, A. F.; Constanti, K. K.; Koop, M. J.; Apateanu, L.; Calabek, M.; Micka, K.

    1994-02-01

    Premature capacity loss (PCL) has been demonstrated consistently by the deep-discharge cycling of three-plate lead/acid cells configured with an excess of electrolyte. A capacity loss of approximately 2% per cycle was observed with cells based on tin-free, lead-calcium positive grids, under both constant-current and constant-voltage charging. The current that flows during constant-voltage charging decreases markedly within the first few cycles. This coincides with the establishment of an appreciable corrosion layer on the grid, and also with the onset of severe capacity loss. Significantly, there is no corresponding build-up of lead sulfate within the porous mass. With constant-current charging, a change in the overcharge factor, from 1.1 to 1.2, approximately doubles the rate of capacity loss. The corrosion products in lead-calcium plates exhibit a bi-layered structure: an outer corrosion layer of PbO2 and an inner layer in which the composition approaches PbO. These materials are prone to fracture and separation, especially between the two layers. Cells based on lead-antimony positive grids also suffer PCL, but the rate of capacity loss (approximately 1% per cycle) is less than that observed for the lead-calcium analogues. The current under constant-voltage charging of lead-antimony cells also decreases during the first few charge/discharge cycles, yet, this effect is over-shadowed by an increase in current due to the effects of antimony migration. Increasing the level of overcharge under constant-current charging produces only a slight reduction in cycle life. In regions close to the grid, PbO-like material is much less abundant than in lead-calcium plates. The corrosion products are composed mainly of PbO2, and are more coherent under stress. Resistance at the grid/porous material interface, measured in situ, increases greatly during discharge for plates based on lead-calcium grids, but much less for the corresponding lead-antimony plates. This tends to

  8. Prediction of Songhua River flood economic losses in Harbin based on GIS and RS%基于GIS和RS的松花江干流哈尔滨段淹没经济损失预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张慧; 雷国平; 宋戈; 徐晓嘉; 田楠

    2011-01-01

    Prediction of inundation loss can provide important reference for flood control planning. Base on GIS, the digital elevation model was built, and the the submerged area of Harbin city was simulated under condition that the water level of Songhua River reached to 120.89 m by plane simulation method. The spatial information of urban land use and the spatial distribution of the socio-economic information in Harbin city were acquired by combining GIS with RS technology, and the direct and indirect economic losses were forecasted on agriculture, industry, tertiary industry, rural and urban housing and family wealth in the submerged area. The results showed that when the water level of Songhua River reached 120.89 m, the submerged area which including the Songbei area, Hulan area, Daowai area, Daoli area, Xiangfang area in Harbin would be 1 402 km2, and the total economic loss was 6.82 billion Yuan. Songbei was the most severe submerged area with biggest total economic loss especially on agriculture, industry, tertiary industry and rural residential family wealth. Daoli area and Daowai area had the most severe loss area with urban housing and family wealth, and their economic loss rate per unit area was also higher, so they were the focus of Harbin city for flood control. Hulan area and the Songbei area had the lowest rate of economic loss per unit area, so it could be considered as flood zoon. Spatial layout of parts of industrial land in Songbei area, Hulan area and Daowai area and parts of urban residential land in Daowai area, Daoli area and Xiangfang area was unreasonable.%利用地理信息系统预测洪水造成的经济损失,可以为防洪规划提供重要的依据.本文基于地理信息系统GIS技术构建数字高程模型,采用平面模拟方法模拟了松花江水位达到120.89 m时哈尔滨市各区的淹没范围,运用地理信息系统GIS与遥感RS技术相结合的方法获取了哈尔滨市区土地利用现状空间分布信息,并用其将

  9. Forecasting Extreme Flooding in South Asia (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, P. J.

    2010-12-01

    In most years there is extensive flooding across India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. On average, 40 million people are displaced by floods in India and half that many again in Bangladesh. Occasionally, even more extensive and severe flooding occurs across South Asia. In 2007 and 2008 the Brahmaputra flooded three times causing severe disruption of commerce, agriculture and life in general. Systems set up by an international collaboration predicted these Bangladesh floods with an operational system at the 10 and 15-day horizon. These forecasts determined the risk of flooding and allowed the Bangladeshis in peril to prepare, harvesting crops and storing of household and agricultural assets. Savings in increments of annual income resulted form the forecasts. In July and August 2010, severe flooding occurred in Pakistan causing horrendous damage and loss of life. But these floods were also predictable at the 10-day time scale if the same forecasting system developed for Bangladesh had been implemented. Similar systems could be implemented in India but would require local cooperation. We describe the manner in which quantified probabilistic precipitation forecasts, coupled with hydrological models can provide useful and timely extended warnings of flooding.

  10. Field note from Pakistan floods: Preventing future flood disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Oxley

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Unusually heavy monsoon rains in Northern Pakistan have caused disproportionate levels of extreme flooding and unprecedented flood losses across the entire Indus River basin. Extensive land use changes and environmental degradation in the uplands and lowlands of the river basin together with the construction of a “built environment” out of balance with the functioning, capacities, scale and limits of the local ecosystems have exposed millions of people to an increased risk of extreme #ooding. The catastrophic nature of the August #ooding provides a unique opportunity to fundamentally change Pakistan’s current socio-economic development path by incorporating disaster risk reduction and climate change measures into the post-disaster recovery process to rebuild a safer, more resilient nation. In January 2005 one hundred and sixty-eight nations adopted the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA2005-2015 to bring about a “substantial reduction in disaster losses” by 2015. Despite this global initiative a series of major disasters, including the recent flooding in Pakistan, all indicate that we are not on track to achieve the substantial reduction of disaster losses. The following fieldnote considers what can be done to accelerate progress towards implementation of the Hyogo Framework, drawing on insights and lessons learnt from the August flooding to understand how Pakistan and neighbouring countries can prevent a repeat of such catastrophic disasters in future years.

  11. Flooding and Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2011

    2011-01-01

    According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, flooding is the nation's most common natural disaster. Some floods develop slowly during an extended period of rain or in a warming trend following a heavy snow. Flash floods can occur quickly, without any visible sign of rain. Catastrophic floods are associated with burst dams and levees,…

  12. National flood modelling for insurance purposes: using IFSAR for flood risk estimation in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sanders

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk poses a major problem for insurers and governments who ultimately pay the financial costs of losses resulting from flood events. Insurers therefore face the problem of how to assess their exposure to floods and how best to price the flood element of their insurance products. This paper looks at the insurance implications of recent flood events in Europe and the issues surrounding insurance of potential future events. In particular, the paper will focus on the flood risk information needs of insurers and how these can be met. The data requirements of national and regional flood models are addressed in the context of the accuracy of available data on property location. Terrain information is generally the weakest component of sophisticated flood models. Therefore, various sources of digital terrain models (DTM are examined and discussed with consideration of the vertical and horizontal accuracy, the speed of acquisition, the costs and the comprehensiveness of the data. The NEXTMap DTM series from Intermap Technologies Inc. is proposed as a suitable DTM for flood risk identification and mapping, following its use in the UK. Its acquisition, processing and application is described and future plans discussed. Examples are included of the application of flood information to insurance property information and the potential benefits and advantages of using suitable hazard modelling data sources are detailed.

  13. Assessing flood risk for a rural detention area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Förster

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Flood detention areas serve the primary purpose of controlled water storage during large flood events in order to decrease the flood risk downstream along the river. These areas are often used for agricultural production. While various damage estimation methods exist for urban areas, there are only a few, most often simpler approaches for loss estimation in rural areas. The loss assessment can provide an estimate of the financial provisions required for the farmers' compensation (e.g., in the context of cost-benefit analyses of detention measures.

    Flood risk is a combination of potential damage and probability of flooding. Losses in agricultural areas exhibit a strong seasonal pattern, and the flooding probability also has a seasonal variation. In the present study, flood risk is assessed for a planned detention area alongside the Elbe River in Germany based on two loss and probability estimation approaches of different time frames, namely a monthly and an annual approach. The results show that the overall potential damage in the proposed detention area amounts to approximately 40 000 € a−1, with approximately equal losses for each of the main land uses, agriculture and road infrastructure. A sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of flooding (i.e., the frequency of operation of the detention area has the largest impact on the overall flood risk.

  14. ANSI / FM Approvals 2510 flood abatement equipment test standard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kravetz Frédéric

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Natural hazards, including flooding, continue to be the leading cause of commercial and industrial property damage worldwide. Until recently, there has been a limited amount of readily available guidance on choosing flood abatement protection. FM Approvals, a division of FM Global, one of the world’s largest business property insurers, working together with the Association of State Floodplain Managers and the US Army Corps of Engineers have developed a National Flood Barrier Test Program after recognizing the urgent demand for reliable flood abatement products to mitigate potential losses. This lead to the ANSI/ FM2510 flood abatement equipment standard.

  15. Repetition in English Political Public Speaking

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李红梅

    2010-01-01

    Repetition is frequently used in English political public speaking to make it easy to be remembered and powerful to move the feelings of the public. This paper is intended to analyze the functions of repetition and different levels of repetition to highlight the significance of repetition in English political public speaking and the ability of using it in practice.

  16. Framework for probabilistic flood risk assessment in an Alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneeberger, Klaus; Huttenlau, Matthias; Steinberger, Thomas; Achleitner, Stefan; Stötter, Johann

    2014-05-01

    Flooding is among the natural hazards that regularly cause significant losses to property and human lives. The assessment of flood risk delivers crucial information for all participants involved in flood risk management and especially for local authorities and insurance companies in order to estimate the possible flood losses. Therefore a framework for assessing flood risk has been developed and is introduced with the presented contribution. Flood risk is thereby defined as combination of the probability of flood events and of potential flood damages. The probability of occurrence is described through the spatial and temporal characterisation of flood. The potential flood damages are determined in the course of vulnerability assessment, whereas, the exposure and the vulnerability of the elements at risks are considered. Direct costs caused by flooding with the focus on residential building are analysed. The innovative part of this contribution lies on the development of a framework which takes the probability of flood events and their spatio-temporal characteristic into account. Usually the probability of flooding will be determined by means of recurrence intervals for an entire catchment without any spatial variation. This may lead to a misinterpretation of the flood risk. Within the presented framework the probabilistic flood risk assessment is based on analysis of a large number of spatial correlated flood events. Since the number of historic flood events is relatively small additional events have to be generated synthetically. This temporal extrapolation is realised by means of the method proposed by Heffernan and Tawn (2004). It is used to generate a large number of possible spatial correlated flood events within a larger catchment. The approach is based on the modelling of multivariate extremes considering the spatial dependence structure of flood events. The input for this approach are time series derived from river gauging stations. In a next step the

  17. Extreme flash floods in Barcelona County

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Barrera

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the catastrophic and extraordinary floods occurring in Barcelona County (Catalonia, NE Spain are studied, in order to characterise the temporal evolution of extreme flash floods in that area and their main features. These events usually cause economical losses and major problems for undertaking daily activity in Barcelona city. This kind of floods is a very common feature in the North-east of Spain and they are recorded every year in some point of Catalonia. This contribution also shows the frequency of those events, within the framework of all the floods that have occurred in Barcelona since the 14th century, but also describes the flooded area, urban evolution, impacts and the weather conditions for any of most severe events. The evolution of flood occurrence shows the existence of oscillations in the earlier and later modern age periods that can be attributed to climatic variability, evolution of the perception threshold and changes in vulnerability. A great increase of vulnerability can be assumed for the period 1850-1900. The analysis of the time evolution for the Barcelona rainfall series (1854-2000 shows that no trend exists, although, due to the changes in urban planning, flash-floods impact has changed over this time. The number of catastrophic flash floods has diminished, although the extraordinary ones have increased.

  18. Varianish: Jamming with Pattern Repetition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jort Band

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In music, patterns and pattern repetition are often regarded as a machine-like task, indeed often delegated to drum Machines and sequencers. Nevertheless, human players add subtle differences and variations to repeated patterns that are musically interesting and often unique. Especially when looking at minimal music, pattern repetitions create hypnotic effects and the human mind blends out the actual pattern to focus on variation and tiny differences over time. Varianish is a musical instrument that aims at turning this phenomenon into a new musical experience for musician and audience: Musical pattern repetitions are found in live music and Varianish generates additional (musical output accordingly that adds substantially to the overall musical expression. Apart from the theory behind the pattern finding and matching and the conceptual design, a demonstrator implementation of Varianish is presented and evaluated.

  19. SERVIR-Africa: Developing an Integrated Platform for Floods Disaster Management in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macharia, Daniel; Korme, Tesfaye; Policelli, Fritz; Irwin, Dan; Adler, Bob; Hong, Yang

    2010-01-01

    SERVIR-Africa is an ambitious regional visualization and monitoring system that integrates remotely sensed data with predictive models and field-based data to monitor ecological processes and respond to natural disasters. It aims addressing societal benefits including floods and turning data into actionable information for decision-makers. Floods are exogenous disasters that affect many parts of Africa, probably second only to drought in terms of social-economic losses. This paper looks at SERVIR-Africa's approach to floods disaster management through establishment of an integrated platform, floods prediction models, post-event flood mapping and monitoring as well as flood maps dissemination in support of flood disaster management.

  20. REPETITIVE CLUSTER-TILTED ALGEBRAS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Shunhua; Zhang Yuehui

    2012-01-01

    Let H be a finite-dimensional hereditary algebra over an algebraically closed field k and CFm be the repetitive cluster category of H with m ≥ 1.We investigate the properties of cluster tilting objects in CFm and the structure of repetitive clustertilted algebras.Moreover,we generalize Theorem 4.2 in [12](Buan A,Marsh R,Reiten I.Cluster-tilted algebra,Trans.Amer.Math.Soc.,359(1)(2007),323-332.) to the situation of CFm,and prove that the tilting graph KCFm of CFm is connected.

  1. Repetitive elements in parasitic protozoa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clayton Christine

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract A recent paper published in BMC Genomics suggests that retrotransposition may be active in the human gut parasite Entamoeba histolytica. This adds to our knowledge of the various types of repetitive elements in parasitic protists and the potential influence of such elements on pathogenicity. See research article http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2164/11/321

  2. Probabilistic Flood Mapping using Volunteered Geographical Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, S. J.; Girons Lopez, M.; Seibert, J.; Minsker, B. S.

    2016-12-01

    Flood extent maps are widely used by decision makers and first responders to provide critical information that prevents economic impacts and the loss of human lives. These maps are usually obtained from sensory data and/or hydrologic models, which often have limited coverage in space and time. Recent developments in social media and communication technology have created a wealth of near-real-time, user-generated content during flood events in many urban areas, such as flooded locations, pictures of flooding extent and height, etc. These data could improve decision-making and response operations as events unfold. However, the integration of these data sources has been limited due to the need for methods that can extract and translate the data into useful information for decision-making. This study presents an approach that uses volunteer geographic information (VGI) and non-traditional data sources (i.e., Twitter, Flicker, YouTube, and 911 and 311 calls) to generate/update the flood extent maps in areas where no models and/or gauge data are operational. The approach combines Web-crawling and computer vision techniques to gather information about the location, extent, and water height of the flood from unstructured textual data, images, and videos. These estimates are then used to provide an updated flood extent map for areas surrounding the geo-coordinate of the VGI through the application of a Hydro Growing Region Algorithm (HGRA). HGRA combines hydrologic and image segmentation concepts to estimate a probabilistic flooding extent along the corresponding creeks. Results obtained for a case study in Austin, TX (i.e., 2015 Memorial Day flood) were comparable to those obtained by a calibrated hydrologic model and had good spatial correlation with flooding extents estimated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).

  3. Final Report, Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George E. Dzyacky

    2003-05-31

    The Flooding Predictor is an advanced process control strategy comprising a patented pattern-recognition methodology that identifies pre-flood patterns discovered to precede flooding events in distillation columns. The grantee holds a U.S. patent on the modeling system. The technology was validated at the Separations Research Program, The University of Texas at Austin under a grant from the U. S. Department of Energy, Inventions & Innovation Program. Distillation tower flooding occurs at abnormally high vapor and/or liquid rates. The loss in tray efficiencies is attributed to unusual behavior of liquid inventories inside the column leading to conditions of flooding of the space in between trays with liquid. Depending on the severity of the flood condition, consequences range from off spec products to equipment damage and tower shutdown. This non-intrusive pattern recognition methodology, processes signal data obtained from existing column instrumentation. Once the pattern is identified empirically, it is modeled and coded into the plant's distributed control system. The control system is programmed to briefly "unload" the tower each time the pattern appears. The unloading takes the form of a momentary reduction in column severity, e.g., decrease bottom temperature, reflux or tower throughput. Unloading the tower briefly at the pre-flood state causes long-term column operation to become significantly more stable - allowing an increase in throughput and/or product purity. The technology provides a wide range of value between optimization and flooding. When a distillation column is not running at capacity, it should be run in such a way ("pushed") that optimal product purity is achieved. Additional benefits include low implementation and maintenance costs, and a high level of console operator acceptance. The previous commercial applications experienced 98% uptime over a four-year period. Further, the technology is unique in its ability to distinguish between

  4. South China Flooded

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Vehicles traverse a flooded street in Liuzhou, guangxi zhuang Autonomous Region, on May 19.heavy rainstorms repeatedly struck China this month, triggering floods, mudflows and landslides. hunan, guangdong and Jiangxi provinces and Chongqing Municipality were the worst hit.

  5. Base Flood Elevation

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  6. Flood Control Structures

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  7. Flooding: Prioritizing protection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peduzzi, Pascal

    2017-09-01

    With climate change, urban development and economic growth, more assets and infrastructures will be exposed to flooding. Now research shows that investments in flood protection are globally beneficial, but have varied levels of benefit locally.

  8. Flood Hazard Area

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  9. Flood Hazard Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  10. Flood Risk Management in Hungary's Upper Tisza Basin: the Potential Use of a Flood Catastrophe Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linerooth-Bayer, J.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.; Galambos, I.

    2001-05-01

    This paper is based on the preliminary results of an IIASA-based study of flood-risk management for the Hungarian Upper Tisza River, where recent devastating floods have been exacerbated by cyanide and heavy metal pollution episodes originating in Romania. Hungary ranks only behind countries like Bangladesh and the Netherlands with regard to the extent of its territory exposed to flood risks, yet the government does not have a clear risk-management strategy in place. In the past, the national government has taken full responsibility for flood prevention, mainly through the construction of dikes, as well as for the post-disaster compensation of losses. This policy, however, is placing an increasing strain on the national budget. Like in many other countries, Hungarians recognize that a national flood program must be developed that effectively links private and public responsibility for the losses, private insurance and loss mitigation. The development of an insurance/mitigation program, however, faces distributive-value problems (the Hungarian public is skeptical of private insurance). Moreover, if private insurance is to be a policy option, it is necessary to devise improved tools and models for estimating spatially dependent risks in cases of little historical data. This is an area in which hydrologic models can be particularly useful. In this discussion, we describe a flood catastrophe model based on Monte Carlo simulation that can be of use in analyzing policy options for reducing the losses of floods in the Upper Tisza region, as well as for improving the insurability of the losses. The policy scenarios examined in the model, which are limited by data availability, have been developed by Hungarian policy makers. While the results are modest, the study demonstrates a methodology and process that may have considerable potential for aiding Hungarian policy makers in designing a national flood program.

  11. Flood Risk Regional Flood Defences: Technical report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lendering, K.T.

    2015-01-01

    Historically the Netherlands have always had to deal with the threat of flooding, both from the rivers and the sea as well as from heavy rainfall. The country consists of a large amount of polders, which are low lying areas of land protected from flooding by embankments. These polders require an

  12. Flood Risk Regional Flood Defences: Technical report

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lendering, K.T.

    2015-01-01

    Historically the Netherlands have always had to deal with the threat of flooding, both from the rivers and the sea as well as from heavy rainfall. The country consists of a large amount of polders, which are low lying areas of land protected from flooding by embankments. These polders require an ext

  13. FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT IN SLOVAK REPUBLIC

    OpenAIRE

    Martina ZELENAKOVA

    2011-01-01

    Recent history has shown that extreme hydrological events as flood and droughts can create additional stress on water supplies essential for human and ecosystem health. Floods have caused immense economic and social losses, mainly as a result of unplanned urbanization, uncontrolled population density and not strictly inspected construction by authorities. The purpose of Directive 2007/60/EC is to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks, aiming at the reduction o...

  14. Can Forest Transformation Help Reducing Floods in Forested Watersheds?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wahl, Niels Arne; Wöllecke, B.; Benz, O.

    2005-01-01

    Former floodplains in many European countries increasingly suffer from serious floods due to intensified human activity. These floods have caused safety and ecological problems as well as they have resulted in economic losses in agricultural used watersheds. In this context, the influence...... that for the approximate duration of one century the practice of forest transformation does not contribute to flood prevention through enhanced infiltration capacity or water retention....

  15. Floods in mountain environments: A synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoffel, Markus; Wyżga, Bartłomiej; Marston, Richard A.

    2016-11-01

    Floods are a crucial agent of geomorphic change in the channels and valley floors of mountains watercourses. At the same time, they can be highly damaging to property, infrastructure, and life. Because of their high energy, mountain watercourses are highly vulnerable to environmental changes affecting their catchments and channels. Many factors have modified and frequently still tend to modify the environmental conditions in mountain areas, with impacts on geomorphic processes and the frequency, magnitude, and timing of floods in mountain watercourses. The ongoing climate changes vary between regions but may affect floods in mountain areas in many ways. In many mountain regions of Europe, widespread afforestation took place over the twentieth century, considerably increasing the amounts of large wood delivered to the channels and the likelihood of jamming bridges. At the same time, deforestation continues in other mountain areas, accelerating runoff and amplifying the magnitude and frequency of floods in foreland areas. In many countries, in-channel gravel mining has been a common practice during recent decades; the resultant deficit of bed material in the affected channels may suddenly manifest during flood events, resulting in the failure of scoured bridges or catastrophic channel widening. During the past century many rivers in mountain and foreland areas incised deeply; the resultant loss of floodplain water storage has decreased attenuation of flood waves, hence increasing flood hazard to downstream river reaches. On the other hand, a large amount of recent river restoration activities worldwide may provide examples of beneficial changes to flood risk, attained as a result of increased channel storage or reestablished floodplain water storage. Relations between geomorphic processes and floods operate in both directions, which means that changes in flood probability or the character of floods (e.g., increased wood load) may significantly modify the morphology

  16. Repetition suppression and repetition priming are processing outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wig, Gagan S

    2012-01-01

    Abstract There is considerable evidence that repetition suppression (RS) is a cortical signature of previous exposure to the environment. In many instances RS in specific brain regions is accompanied by improvements in specific behavioral measures; both observations are outcomes of repeated processing. In understanding the mechanism by which brain changes give rise to behavioral changes, it is important to consider what aspect of the environment a given brain area or set of areas processes, and how this might be expressed behaviorally.

  17. Popular myths about flooding in Western Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Joseph L.

    2011-01-01

    Floods are the most destructive natural hazard in the Nation, causing more deaths and financial loss in the 20th century than any other natural disaster. The most significant 20 riverine floods of the 20th century for which data are available have killed more than 1,843 people and caused more than $50 billion (uninflated) in damages (Perry, 2000). One of the most common means of describing the severity of a flood is a comparison to the "100-year flood." In the last decade, increasing attention has been paid to the fact that some regions, notably the Pacific Northwest, have experienced numerous so-called "100-year" floods in the span of a few years. Part of the confusion stems from the statistical nature of the "100-year flood" (Greene, 1996); however, another part of the confusion is the fact that the statistics are calculated for specific sites (streamgages) on specific rivers, rather than for a region as a whole. Scientists with the U.S. Geological Survey have begun to investigate how the likelihood of flooding may be determined on a regional basis (Troutman and Karlinger, 2003).

  18. Feedback on flood risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, K.; Roumagnac, A.

    2009-09-01

    space technology, communication, meteorology, hydraulics and hydrology, Predict-services brings help to local communities in their mission of protection and information to the citizens, for flood problems and helps companies to limit and delete operating losses facing floods. The initiative, developped by BRL, EADS Astrium, in association with Meteo France, has been employed and is functioning on cities of south of France, notably on Montpellier, and also on the scale of catchment area( BRL is a regional development company, a public private partnership controlled by the local gouvernments of the Languedoc-Roussillon Region). The initiative has to be coordinated with state services to secure continuity and coherence of information. This initiative is developped in dialogue with State services as Météo France, the Ministry for the interior, the Ministry for ecology and the durable development, the Regional Direction of the Environment (DIREN), the Central service of Hydrometeorology and Support to the Forecast of the Floods ( SCHAPI) and service of forecast of rising (SPC). It has been successfully functioning for 5 years with 300 southern cities from South West to South East of France and notably Montpellier and Sommières, famous for it’s flood problems on the Vidourle river where no human loss was to regret and where the economic impacts were minimized. Actually developed in cities of South of France, this initiative is to be developed nationaly and very soon internationally. Thanks to the efficiency of it’s method, this initiative is also developed in partnership with insurance company involved in prevention actions. The presentation will expose the feedback of this initiative and lessons learned.

  19. Cohesive Function of Lexical Repetition in Text

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张莉; 卢沛沛

    2013-01-01

    Lexical repetition is the most direct form of lexical cohesion,which is the central device for making texts hang together. Although repetition is the most direct way to emphasize,it performs the cohesive effect more apparently.

  20. Low-probability flood risk modeling for New York City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Lin, Ning; Botzen, Wouter; Emanuel, Kerry; de Moel, Hans

    2013-05-01

    The devastating impact by Hurricane Sandy (2012) again showed New York City (NYC) is one of the most vulnerable cities to coastal flooding around the globe. The low-lying areas in NYC can be flooded by nor'easter storms and North Atlantic hurricanes. The few studies that have estimated potential flood damage for NYC base their damage estimates on only a single, or a few, possible flood events. The objective of this study is to assess the full distribution of hurricane flood risk in NYC. This is done by calculating potential flood damage with a flood damage model that uses many possible storms and surge heights as input. These storms are representative for the low-probability/high-impact flood hazard faced by the city. Exceedance probability-loss curves are constructed under different assumptions about the severity of flood damage. The estimated flood damage to buildings for NYC is between US$59 and 129 millions/year. The damage caused by a 1/100-year storm surge is within a range of US$2 bn-5 bn, while this is between US$5 bn and 11 bn for a 1/500-year storm surge. An analysis of flood risk in each of the five boroughs of NYC finds that Brooklyn and Queens are the most vulnerable to flooding. This study examines several uncertainties in the various steps of the risk analysis, which resulted in variations in flood damage estimations. These uncertainties include: the interpolation of flood depths; the use of different flood damage curves; and the influence of the spectra of characteristics of the simulated hurricanes.

  1. Spatiotemporal characteristics of flood protection level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanoue, M.; Ikeuchi, H.; Hirabayashi, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Flooding is the most frequent natural hazard and its global impacts will be rising associated with climate change and socioeconomic growth. So, the understanding of the physical and spatial-temporal patterns of risk drivers (exposure, damage, and flood protection level) are required to conduct effective adaptation and reduce the negative impacts of flooding. Although the understanding of exposure and damage has greatly improved using a combination of numerical model simulation and spatiotemporal distributions of population and asset, that of flood protection level is still lacking in particular spatial patterns. Previous research clarifies its temporal variation and relationship with per-capita income, however they do not consider its spatial variation. Flood protection level was associated with geographical characteristics (e.g., soil type and tectonic zone etc). This study tried to estimate spatiotemporal of flood protection level at country level and discuss about relationship between its spatial patterns and geographical characteristics. Mortality rate (percentage of fatalities in modeled exposed population) and loss rate (percentage of losses in modeled exposed GDP) to fluvial river flooding across the world suggested by Jongmann et al. (2015) were estimated from modeled flood exposure and damage statistics taken from the International Emergency Disasters Database. The result indicated that mortality rate reduced across the world from 1990 to 2005. The degree of its reduction decreased with increasing per-capita income level. On the other hand, loss rate at high income and middle low income levels reduced, while that at middle high income and low income levels drastically increased between 1995 and 2000 due to growth economic and occurrence of serious fluvial river flooding. Spatial distribution of mortality and loss rates were high in East Asia, the western part of South America, and the eastern part of Europe. These regions seem to be corresponded to the

  2. Uncertainty in surface water flood risk modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, J. B.; Martin, D. N.; Roberts, E.; Domuah, R.

    2009-04-01

    uniform flow formulae (Manning's Equation) to direct flow over the model domain, sourcing water from the channel or sea so as to provide a detailed representation of river and coastal flood risk. The initial development step was to include spatially-distributed rainfall as a new source term within the model domain. This required optimisation to improve computational efficiency, given the ubiquity of ‘wet' cells early on in the simulation. Collaboration with UK water companies has provided detailed drainage information, and from this a simplified representation of the drainage system has been included in the model via the inclusion of sinks and sources of water from the drainage network. This approach has clear advantages relative to a fully coupled method both in terms of reduced input data requirements and computational overhead. Further, given the difficulties associated with obtaining drainage information over large areas, tests were conducted to evaluate uncertainties associated with excluding drainage information and the impact that this has upon flood model predictions. This information can be used, for example, to inform insurance underwriting strategies and loss estimation as well as for emergency response and planning purposes. The Flowroute surface-water flood risk platform enables efficient mapping of areas sensitive to flooding from high-intensity rainfall events due to topography and drainage infrastructure. As such, the technology has widespread potential for use as a risk mapping tool by the UK Environment Agency, European Member States, water authorities, local governments and the insurance industry. Keywords: Surface water flooding, Model Uncertainty, Insurance Underwriting, Flood inundation modelling, Risk mapping.

  3. Flood Impact Modelling and Natural Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Gareth; Quinn, Paul; ODonnell, Greg

    2016-04-01

    Local implementation of Natural Flood Management methods are now being proposed in many flood schemes. In principal it offers a cost effective solution to a number of catchment based problem as NFM tackles both flood risk and WFD issues. However within larger catchments there is the issue of which subcatchments to target first and how much NFM to implement. If each catchment has its own configuration of subcatchment and rivers how can the issues of flood synchronisation and strategic investment be addressed? In this study we will show two key aspects to resolving these issues. Firstly, a multi-scale network water level recorder is placed throughout the system to capture the flow concentration and travel time operating in the catchment being studied. The second is a Flood Impact Model (FIM), which is a subcatchment based model that can generate runoff in any location using any hydrological model. The key aspect to the model is that it has a function to represent the impact of NFM in any subcatchment and the ability to route that flood wave to the outfall. This function allows a realistic representation of the synchronisation issues for that catchment. By running the model in interactive mode the user can define an appropriate scheme that minimises or removes the risk of synchornisation and gives confidence that the NFM investment is having a good level of impact downstream in large flood events.

  4. Urban pluvial flood prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

    2016-01-01

    Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

  5. FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN LARGE RIVER SYSTEMS——GERMAN EXPERIENCES(IN BRIEF)%大河系统洪水风险管理——德国的经验(论文摘编)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WERNER Buck

    2006-01-01

    @@ Problems with extreme floods have been aggravated in Germany mainly due to loss of flood retaining areas caused by river regulation measures in former centuries, and by intensified use of the former natural flood plains.

  6. Framework for Dynamic Modelling of Urban Floods at Different Topographical Resolutions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seyoum, S.D.

    2013-01-01

    Floods are among the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship and economic loss. The impacts of flooding are especially devastating in urban areas as these areas are densely populated and contain vital infrastructures. Urban flood risks and their impacts are expected to

  7. Predicting landscape sensitivity to present and future floods in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Sarah L. Lewis; Brian Staab

    2015-01-01

    Floods are the most frequent natural disaster, causing more loss of life and property than any other in the USA. Floods also strongly influence the structure and function of watersheds, stream channels, and aquatic ecosystems. The Pacific Northwest is particularly vulnerable to climatically driven changes in flood frequency and magnitude, because snowpacks that...

  8. The Thames Gateway: planning policy and flood risk scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eldridge, Jillian; Horn, Diane

    2010-05-01

    The Thames Gateway, currently Europe's largest regeneration project, presents a valuable case study area in which to examine the interrelated issues of planning policy, flood risk and insurance loss potential. The region is typified by a significant exposure to flooding due to its location, which as developments proceed, could result in increased areas of vulnerability with consequential insurance loss and hotspots of risk. With 160,000 new homes planned by 2016, positive use of planning policy is fundamental in minimising potential flood risk as well as ensuring long term economic and social goals can be met. This project focuses on several planning scenarios within the Gateway for the areas of Barking and Medway, and models flood risk using a commercial flood model to develop the flood risk under alternative planning policy scenarios. The two areas chosen demonstrate major regeneration and redevelopment sites located on Thames tidal floodplain. The areas are protected by flood defences although are both downstream of the Thames Barrier. However, it is expected that defences will be maintained and upgraded over the next several years, particularly in the Medway, which is currently protected to a lower level than most other areas in the Thames Gateway. The progress of development is more advanced in Barking with the major regeneration site, Barking Riverside, hosting 2000 new homes. The study sites have been chosen based on their location and proximity to the Thames and allow for an analysis of planning policy and its influence in minimising risk into the future. The reflected change in flood risk due to both the planned developments and flood defences will help to understand change in risk over time and the intricacies expected with delivering planning policy in a multi-governed area subject to conflicting objectives. Flood risk for both sites are modelled using a commercial flood model to estimate flood risk based on several flood scenarios for both current and

  9. Quantification of uncertainty in flood risk assessment for flood protection planning: a Bayesian approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Ebrahimian, Negin; Kaiser, Maria; Rieger, Wolfgang; Disse, Markus; Straub, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk estimates are subject to significant uncertainties, e.g. due to limited records of historic flood events, uncertainty in flood modeling, uncertain impact of climate change or uncertainty in the exposure and loss estimates. In traditional design of flood protection systems, these uncertainties are typically just accounted for implicitly, based on engineering judgment. In the AdaptRisk project, we develop a fully quantitative framework for planning of flood protection systems under current and future uncertainties using quantitative pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis. In this contribution, we focus on the quantification of the uncertainties and study their relative influence on the flood risk estimate and on the planning of flood protection systems. The following uncertainty components are included using a Bayesian approach: 1) inherent and statistical (i.e. limited record length) uncertainty; 2) climate uncertainty that can be learned from an ensemble of GCM-RCM models; 3) estimates of climate uncertainty components not covered in 2), such as bias correction, incomplete ensemble, local specifics not captured by the GCM-RCM models; 4) uncertainty in the inundation modelling; 5) uncertainty in damage estimation. We also investigate how these uncertainties are possibly reduced in the future when new evidence - such as new climate models, observed extreme events, and socio-economic data - becomes available. Finally, we look into how this new evidence influences the risk assessment and effectivity of flood protection systems. We demonstrate our methodology for a pre-alpine catchment in southern Germany: the Mangfall catchment in Bavaria that includes the city of Rosenheim, which suffered significant losses during the 2013 flood event.

  10. Germany wide seasonal flood risk analysis for agricultural crops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Kuhlmann, Bernd; Merz, Bruno; Schröter, Kai

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, large-scale flood risk analysis and mapping has gained attention. Regional to national risk assessments are needed, for example, for national risk policy developments, for large-scale disaster management planning and in the (re-)insurance industry. Despite increasing requests for comprehensive risk assessments some sectors have not received much scientific attention, one of these is the agricultural sector. In contrast to other sectors, agricultural crop losses depend strongly on the season. Also flood probability shows seasonal variation. Thus, the temporal superposition of high flood susceptibility of crops and high flood probability plays an important role for agricultural flood risk. To investigate this interrelation and provide a large-scale overview of agricultural flood risk in Germany, an agricultural crop loss model is used for crop susceptibility analyses and Germany wide seasonal flood-frequency analyses are undertaken to derive seasonal flood patterns. As a result, a Germany wide map of agricultural flood risk is shown as well as the crop type most at risk in a specific region. The risk maps may provide guidance for federal state-wide coordinated designation of retention areas.

  11. Circuit considerations for repetitive railguns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Honih, E.M.

    1986-01-01

    Railgun electromagnetic launchers have significant military and scientific potential. They provide direct conversion of electrical energy to projectile kinetic energy, and they offer the hope of achieving projectile velocities greatly exceeding the limits of conventional guns. With over 10 km/sec already demonstrated, railguns are attracting attention for tactical and strategic weapons systems and for scientific equation-of-state research. The full utilization of railguns will require significant improvements in every aspect of system design - projectile, barrel, and power source - to achieve operation on a large scale. This paper will review fundamental aspects of railguns, with emphasis on circuit considerations and repetitive operation.

  12. Flood Extent Mapping for Namibia Using Change Detection and Thresholding with SAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Stephanie; Fatoyinbo, Temilola E.; Policelli, Frederick

    2014-01-01

    A new method for flood detection change detection and thresholding (CDAT) was used with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to delineate the extent of flooding for the Chobe floodplain in the Caprivi region of Namibia. This region experiences annual seasonal flooding and has seen a recent renewal of severe flooding after a long dry period in the 1990s. Flooding in this area has caused loss of life and livelihoods for the surrounding communities and has caught the attention of disaster relief agencies. There is a need for flood extent mapping techniques that can be used to process images quickly, providing near real-time flooding information to relief agencies. ENVISAT/ASAR and Radarsat-2 images were acquired for several flooding seasons from February 2008 to March 2013. The CDAT method was used to determine flooding from these images and includes the use of image subtraction, decision based classification with threshold values, and segmentation of SAR images. The total extent of flooding determined for 2009, 2011 and 2012 was about 542 km2, 720 km2, and 673 km2 respectively. Pixels determined to be flooded in vegetation were typically flooding in vegetation was much greater (almost one third of the total flooded area). The time to maximum flooding for the 2013 flood season was determined to be about 27 days. Landsat water classification was used to compare the results from the new CDAT with SAR method; the results show good spatial agreement with Landsat scenes.

  13. Assessing fluvial flood risk in urban environments: a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Longo Elisa

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, floods are among the most impactful calamities regarding costs. Looking at the natural hazards damage data collected in the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT, it is observable a significant increase over the past four decades of both frequency of floods and associated costs. Similarly, dramatic trends are also found by analyzing other types of flood losses, such as the number of people affected by floods, homeless, injured or killed.To deal with the aforementioned rise of flood risk, more and more efforts are being made to promote integrated flood risk management, for example, the Flood Directive 2007/60/EC. The main goals of this research are the estimation of flood damages using the KULTURisk methodology and the comparing of the projected costs with the observed one. The case study is the 2002 flood in Eilenburg. According to KULTURisk methodology, two major classes of data are considered to evaluate flood risk damage: hydraulic data as regards Hazard and economic information to assess Exposure and Vulnerability This study shows the possibility to extend the lesson learned with the Eilenburg case study in other similar contexts.

  14. Global Aspects of Flood Risk Management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wolfgang Kron

    2015-01-01

    Various flood disasters in the last decade have confirmed that the risk from flooding has been increasing significantly worldwide. The driving factors for the risk are the unabated increase in global population, the concentration of people in high-risk areas such as coasts and flood plains, the rise in vulnerability of assets, infrastructure and social systems, and the consequences of climate change. Risk reduction is based on comprehensive risk management from identification of the hazard and assessing the risk to building defenses. To achieve this, general awareness at all levels in a society is key. It is not sufficient merely to be aware of the situation-findings must be acted upon with no significant delay. Flood-related computations have progressed considerably in recent years, but model results can only be as good as their input data. Modeling floods and flood losses is very complex, as model parameters are subject to change during an event and conditions sometimes greatly depend on small-scale factors.

  15. Framework for Dynamic Modelling of Urban Floods at Different Topographical Resolutions

    OpenAIRE

    Seyoum, S.D.

    2013-01-01

    Floods are among the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship and economic loss. The impacts of flooding are especially devastating in urban areas as these areas are densely populated and contain vital infrastructures. Urban flood risks and their impacts are expected to increase as urban development in flood prone areas continues and as rain intensity increases as a result of climate change while aging drainage infrastructures limit the drainage capacity in existi...

  16. RASOR flood modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckers, Joost; Buckman, Lora; Bachmann, Daniel; Visser, Martijn; Tollenaar, Daniel; Vatvani, Deepak; Kramer, Nienke; Goorden, Neeltje

    2015-04-01

    Decision making in disaster management requires fast access to reliable and relevant information. We believe that online information and services will become increasingly important in disaster management. Within the EU FP7 project RASOR (Rapid Risk Assessment and Spatialisation of Risk) an online platform is being developed for rapid multi-hazard risk analyses to support disaster management anywhere in the world. The platform will provide access to a plethora of GIS data that are relevant to risk assessment. It will also enable the user to run numerical flood models to simulate historical and newly defined flooding scenarios. The results of these models are maps of flood extent, flood depths and flow velocities. The RASOR platform will enable to overlay historical event flood maps with observations and Earth Observation (EO) imagery to fill in gaps and assess the accuracy of the flood models. New flooding scenarios can be defined by the user and simulated to investigate the potential impact of future floods. A series of flood models have been developed within RASOR for selected case study areas around the globe that are subject to very different flood hazards: • The city of Bandung in Indonesia, which is prone to fluvial flooding induced by heavy rainfall. The flood hazard is exacerbated by land subsidence. • The port of Cilacap on the south coast of Java, subject to tsunami hazard from submarine earthquakes in the Sunda trench. • The area south of city of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, prone to coastal and/or riverine flooding. • The island of Santorini in Greece, which is subject to tsunamis induced by landslides. Flood models have been developed for each of these case studies using mostly EO data, augmented by local data where necessary. Particular use was made of the new TanDEM-X (TerraSAR-X add-on for Digital Elevation Measurement) product from the German Aerospace centre (DLR) and EADS Astrium. The presentation will describe the flood models and the

  17. REPETITIVE MANUAL OPERATIONS IN THE DAIRY SECTOR: ANALYSES AND CRITERIA FOR INTERVENTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pier Riccardo Porceddu

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available For the health of workers it is necessary to consider, together with traditional risks (noise, vibrations, microclimate etc., risks deriving from repetitive movements, which can generate muscolo-skeletal disorders. These risks can be found in artisan dairies, where the limited use of machinery and the rapid successive passages for processing the milk require high-frequency repetitive manual movements. The study analysed the risks of repetitive movements for workers in a dairy, using the OCRA method. Various risk-involving operations emerged, which require the re-planning of the workplace. The proposed interventions have not involved high costs for the dairy, or a loss of productivity.

  18. NASA Global Flood Mapping System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Policelli, Fritz; Slayback, Dan; Brakenridge, Bob; Nigro, Joe; Hubbard, Alfred

    2017-01-01

    Product utility key factors: Near real time, automated production; Flood spatial extent Cloudiness Pixel resolution: 250m; Flood temporal extent; Flash floods short duration on ground?; Landcover--Water under vegetation cover vs open water

  19. Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

    2011-12-01

    the flood hazard model is used to drive a flood loss model that is coupled to a financial model.

  20. Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Merz

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional flood design methods are increasingly supplemented or replaced by risk-oriented methods which are based on comprehensive risk analyses. Besides meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic investigations such analyses require the estimation of flood impacts. Flood impact assessments mainly focus on direct economic losses using damage functions which relate property damage to damage-causing factors. Although the flood damage of a building is influenced by many factors, usually only inundation depth and building use are considered as damage-causing factors. In this paper a data set of approximately 4000 damage records is analysed. Each record represents the direct monetary damage to an inundated building. The data set covers nine flood events in Germany from 1978 to 1994. It is shown that the damage data follow a Lognormal distribution with a large variability, even when stratified according to the building use and to water depth categories. Absolute depth-damage functions which relate the total damage to the water depth are not very helpful in explaining the variability of the damage data, because damage is determined by various parameters besides the water depth. Because of this limitation it has to be expected that flood damage assessments are associated with large uncertainties. It is shown that the uncertainty of damage estimates depends on the number of flooded buildings and on the distribution of building use within the flooded area. The results are exemplified by a damage assessment for a rural area in southwest Germany, for which damage estimates and uncertainty bounds are quantified for a 100-year flood event. The estimates are compared to reported flood damages of a severe flood in 1993. Given the enormous uncertainty of flood damage estimates the refinement of flood damage data collection and modelling are major issues for further empirical and methodological improvements.

  1. Coping with floods after the severe event in 2002: Recent changes in preparedness, response and recovery of flood-affected residents in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kienzler, Sarah; Pech, Ina; Kreibich, Heidi; Müller, Meike; Thieken, Annegret

    2014-05-01

    In the aftermath of the severe flood in August 2002, a number of political changes on flood policies in Germany and Europe were launched aiming at an improved risk communication and management. The question arises, whether flood-affected private households are now better prepared than in 2002. Therefore, computer-aided telephone interviews with private households that suffered property damage due to flooding in 2005, 2006, 2010 or 2011 were performed. The obtained data were also compared to results from a similar investigation carried out by Thieken et al. (2007 - Hydrol. Sci. J. 52(5): 1016-1037) after the flood in 2002. After 2002, a larger part of people knew that they are at risk of flooding and the level of private precaution increased considerably. Yet this knowledge did not necessarily result in actual building retrofitting or flood proofing measures. Accordingly, the benefits and cost savings of these actions still have to be communicated in a better way. Best precaution before the flood event in 2011 and 2006 might be explained by more flood experience and overall greater awareness of the residents. Early warning and emergency response were substantially influenced by the floods' characteristics. In contrast to flood-affected people in 2006 or 2011, people affected by floods in 2005 or 2010 had to deal with shorter lead times, less time to take emergency measures and consequently suffered higher losses. Therefore, it is important to further improve early warning systems and communication channels, particularly in hilly areas with fast onset flooding.

  2. Estimation of the relative severity of floods in small ungauged catchments for preliminary observations on flash flood preparedness: a case study in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Eung Seok; Choi, Hyun Il

    2012-04-01

    An increase in the occurrence of sudden local flooding of great volume and short duration has caused significant danger and loss of life and property in Korea as well as many other parts of the World. Since such floods usually accompanied by rapid runoff and debris flow rise quite quickly with little or no advance warning to prevent flood damage, this study presents a new flash flood indexing methodology to promptly provide preliminary observations regarding emergency preparedness and response to flash flood disasters in small ungauged catchments. Flood runoff hydrographs are generated from a rainfall-runoff model for the annual maximum rainfall series of long-term observed data in the two selected small ungauged catchments. The relative flood severity factors quantifying characteristics of flood runoff hydrographs are standardized by the highest recorded maximum value, and then averaged to obtain the flash flood index only for flash flood events in each study catchment. It is expected that the regression equations between the proposed flash flood index and rainfall characteristics can provide the basis database of the preliminary information for forecasting the local flood severity in order to facilitate flash flood preparedness in small ungauged catchments.

  3. The joint impact of storm surge, fluvial flood and operation of man-made structures on the high water level frequency in the Lower Rhine Delta

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhong, H.

    2014-01-01

    Most deltas of the world and their highly urbanized environments, are vulnerable to flooding, and thus, the consequences in terms of human fatalities and economic losses are serious. Floods and the consequent damages have triggered significant developments of flood protection measures. Flood risk

  4. Digital repetitive control under varying frequency conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos Fuentes, Germán Andrés

    2012-01-01

    The tracking/rejection of periodic signals constitutes a wide field of research in the control theory and applications area and Repetitive Control has proven to be an efficient way to face this topic; however, in some applications the period of the signal to be tracked/rejected changes in time or is uncertain, which causes and important performance degradation in the standard repetitive controller. This thesis presents some contributions to the open topic of repetitive control workin...

  5. Discover Floods Educators Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Project WET Foundation, 2009

    2009-01-01

    Now available as a Download! This valuable resource helps educators teach students about both the risks and benefits of flooding through a series of engaging, hands-on activities. Acknowledging the different roles that floods play in both natural and urban communities, the book helps young people gain a global understanding of this common--and…

  6. Flood risk assessment and mapping for the Lebanese watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdallah, Chadi; Hdeib, Rouya

    2016-04-01

    Of all natural disasters, floods affect the greatest number of people worldwide and have the greatest potential to cause damage. Nowadays, with the emerging global warming phenomenon, this number is expected to increase. The Eastern Mediterranean area, including Lebanon (10452 Km2, 4.5 M habitant), has witnessed in the past few decades an increase frequency of flooding events. This study profoundly assess the flood risk over Lebanon covering all the 17 major watersheds and a number of small sub-catchments. It evaluate the physical direct tangible damages caused by floods. The risk assessment and evaluation process was carried out over three stages; i) Evaluating Assets at Risk, where the areas and assets vulnerable to flooding are identified, ii) Vulnerability Assessment, where the causes of vulnerability are assessed and the value of the assets are provided, iii) Risk Assessment, where damage functions are established and the consequent damages of flooding are estimated. A detailed Land CoverUse map was prepared at a scale of 1/ 1 000 using 0.4 m resolution satellite images within the flood hazard zones. The detailed field verification enabled to allocate and characterize all elements at risk, identify hotspots, interview local witnesses, and to correlate and calibrate previous flood damages with the utilized models. All filed gathered information was collected through Mobile Application and transformed to be standardized and classified under GIS environment. Consequently; the general damage evaluation and risk maps at different flood recurrence periods (10, 50, 100 years) were established. Major results showed that floods in a winter season (December, January, and February) of 10 year recurrence and of water retention ranging from 1 to 3 days can cause total damages (losses) that reach 1.14 M for crop lands and 2.30 M for green houses. Whereas, it may cause 0.2 M to losses in fruit trees for a flood retention ranging from 3 to 5 days. These numbers differs

  7. [Repetition and fear of dying].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, B D

    1995-03-01

    In this paper a revision is made of the qualifications of Repetition (R) in Freuds work, i.e. its being at the service of the Pleasure Principle and, beyond it, the binding of free energy due to trauma. Freud intends to explain with this last concept the "fort-da" and the traumatic dreams (obsessively reiterated self-reproaches may be added to them). The main thesis of this work is that R. is not only a defense against the recollection of the ominous past (as in the metaphorical deaths of abandonment and desertion) but also a way of maintaining life and identify fighting against the inescapable omninous future (known but yet experienced), i.e. our own death. Some forms of R. like habits, identificatory behaviors and sometimes even magic, are geared to serve the life instinct. A literary illustration shows this desperate fight.

  8. Pressure rig for repetitive casting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasquez, Peter (Inventor); Hutto, William R. (Inventor); Philips, Albert R. (Inventor)

    1989-01-01

    The invention is a pressure rig for repetitive casting of metal. The pressure rig performs like a piston for feeding molten metal into a mold. Pressure is applied to an expandable rubber diaphragm which expands like a balloon to force the metal into the mold. A ceramic cavity which holds molten metal is lined with blanket-type insulating material, necessitating only a relining for subsequent use and eliminating the lengthy cavity preparation inherent in previous rigs. In addition, the expandable rubber diaphragm is protected by the insulating material thereby decreasing its vulnerability to heat damage. As a result of the improved design the life expectancy of the pressure rig contemplated by the present invention is more than doubled. Moreover, the improved heat protection has allowed the casting of brass and other alloys with higher melting temperatures than possible in the conventional pressure rigs.

  9. Land-use change and floods: what do we need most, research or management?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tollan, Arne

    2002-01-01

    Land-cover change (urbanisation, deforestation, and cultivation) results in increased flood frequency and severity. Mechanisms include reduced infiltration capacity, lower soil porosity, loss of vegetation, and forest clearing, meaning lower evapotranspiration. Major research challenges lie in quantification of effects in terms of flood characteristics under various conditions, ascertaining the combined effects of gradual changes over long time periods, and developing model tools suitable for land-use management. Large floods during the 1990s gave a new focus on these problems. Reference is made to the Norwegian HYDRA research programme on human impacts on floods and flood damage. The paper concludes that land-use change effects on floods are most pronounced at small scale and for frequent flood magnitudes. Model simulations of effects of land-use change can now be used to reduce flood risk. Modern flood management strategies have abandoned the position that dams and dikes are the only answers to mitigating flood disasters. Today, the strategic approach is more often: do not keep the water away from the people, keep people away from the water. Flood management strategies should include flood warnings, efficient communication, risk awareness, civil protection and flood preparedness routines, effective land-use policies, flood risk mapping, ... as well as structural measures.

  10. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  11. Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui

    2015-05-01

    In the past decades, China has observed rapid urbanization, the nation's urban population reached 50% in 2000, and is still in steady increase. Rapid urbanization in China has an adverse impact on urban hydrological processes, particularly in increasing the urban flood risks and causing serious urban flooding losses. Urban flooding also increases health risks such as causing epidemic disease break out, polluting drinking water and damaging the living environment. In the highly urbanized area, non-engineering measurement is the main way for managing urban flood risk, such as flood risk warning. There is no mature method and pilot study for urban flood risk warning, the purpose of this study is to propose the urban flood risk warning method for the rapidly urbanized Chinese cities. This paper first presented an urban flood forecasting model, which produces urban flood inundation index for urban flood risk warning. The model has 5 modules. The drainage system and grid dividing module divides the whole city terrain into drainage systems according to its first-order river system, and delineates the drainage system into grids based on the spatial structure with irregular gridding technique; the precipitation assimilation module assimilates precipitation for every grids which is used as the model input, which could either be the radar based precipitation estimation or interpolated one from rain gauges; runoff production module classifies the surface into pervious and impervious surface, and employs different methods to calculate the runoff respectively; surface runoff routing module routes the surface runoff and determines the inundation index. The routing on surface grid is calculated according to the two dimensional shallow water unsteady flow algorithm, the routing on land channel and special channel is calculated according to the one dimensional unsteady flow algorithm. This paper then proposed the urban flood risk warning method that is called DPSIR model based

  12. Distillation Column Flooding Predictor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George E. Dzyacky

    2010-11-23

    The Flooding Predictor™ is a patented advanced control technology proven in research at the Separations Research Program, University of Texas at Austin, to increase distillation column throughput by over 6%, while also increasing energy efficiency by 10%. The research was conducted under a U. S. Department of Energy Cooperative Agreement awarded to George Dzyacky of 2ndpoint, LLC. The Flooding Predictor™ works by detecting the incipient flood point and controlling the column closer to its actual hydraulic limit than historical practices have allowed. Further, the technology uses existing column instrumentation, meaning no additional refining infrastructure is required. Refiners often push distillation columns to maximize throughput, improve separation, or simply to achieve day-to-day optimization. Attempting to achieve such operating objectives is a tricky undertaking that can result in flooding. Operators and advanced control strategies alike rely on the conventional use of delta-pressure instrumentation to approximate the column’s approach to flood. But column delta-pressure is more an inference of the column’s approach to flood than it is an actual measurement of it. As a consequence, delta pressure limits are established conservatively in order to operate in a regime where the column is never expected to flood. As a result, there is much “left on the table” when operating in such a regime, i.e. the capacity difference between controlling the column to an upper delta-pressure limit and controlling it to the actual hydraulic limit. The Flooding Predictor™, an innovative pattern recognition technology, controls columns at their actual hydraulic limit, which research shows leads to a throughput increase of over 6%. Controlling closer to the hydraulic limit also permits operation in a sweet spot of increased energy-efficiency. In this region of increased column loading, the Flooding Predictor is able to exploit the benefits of higher liquid

  13. Financing increasing flood risk: evidence from millions of buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Jongman

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of disaster risk management and financing mechanisms depends on the accurate assessment of current and future hazard exposure. The increasing availability of detailed data offers policy makers and the insurance sector new opportunities to understand trends in risk, and to make informed decisions on the ways to deal with these trends. In this paper we show how comprehensive property level information can be used for the assessment of exposure to flooding on a national scale, and how this information can contribute to discussions on possible risk financing practices. The case-study used is the Netherlands, which is one of the countries most exposed to flooding globally, and which is currently undergoing a debate on strategies for the compensation of potential losses. Our results show that flood exposure has increased rapidly between 1960 and 2012, and that the growth of the building stock and its economic value in flood prone areas has been higher than in not flood prone areas. We also find that property values in flood prone areas are lower than those in not flood prone areas. We argue that the increase in the share of economic value located in potential flood prone areas can have a negative effect on the feasibility of private insurance schemes in the Netherlands. The methodologies and results presented in this study are relevant for many regions around the world where the effects of rising flood exposure create a challenge for risk financing.

  14. Floods and droughts: friends or foes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prudhomme, Christel

    2017-04-01

    Water hazards are some of the biggest threats to lives and livelihoods globally, causing serious damages to society and infrastructure. But floods and droughts are an essential part of the hydrological regime that ensures fundamental ecosystem functions, providing natural ways to bring in nutrients, flush out pollutants and enabling soils, rivers and lakes natural biodiversity to thrive. Traditionally, floods and droughts are too often considered separately, with scientific advance in process understanding, modelling, statistical characterisation and impact assessment are often done independently, possibly delaying the development of innovative methods that could be applied to both. This talk will review some of the key characteristics of floods and droughts, highlighting differences and commonalties, losses and benefits, with the aim of identifying future key research challenges faced by both current and next generation of hydrologists.

  15. Dynamic Flood Vulnerability Mapping with Google Earth Engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellman, B.; Kuhn, C.; Max, S. A.; Sullivan, J.

    2015-12-01

    our comprehensive approach to flood vulnerability couples inundation extent with social data to determine which flood exposed communities have the greatest propensity for loss. Specifically, by linking model outputs to census derived social vulnerability estimates (Indian and US, respectively) to predict how many people are at risk.

  16. Rapid Flood Evaluation Systems in Taiwan Metropolitan Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Dar Guo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological issues in metropolises in Taiwan have become increasingly important because the storm water sewer systems of metropolises are frequently unable to meet the requirements of the existing and future metropolitan development. Typhoons or torrential rains that cause rainfall intensities that exceed the designed capacity of storm water sewers can result in serious flooding. The losses caused by flooding can be reduced if the areas at risk of flooding can be predicted and warnings can be issued to prompt disaster prevention and allow response units and residents to prepare before disasters occur. The primary purpose of this study is to integrate the quantitative precipitation forecasting technologies [1, 2] developed by the Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute to establish a rapid, stable, real-time, and automatic metropolitan area flood estimation system for predictive flooding analysis. The objects of this study are metropolitan areas in Taiwan with storm water sewer systems. The standard capacities of storm water sewer systems throughout Taiwan and the geographic information system (GIS shape files are collected and compiled. Additionally, the potential flooding areas are divided into four levels (high, medium, low, and no flooding and are compared with the rainfall warning values of the Water Resources Agency. The study combines the results of quantitative precipitation forecasts, establishes an information database (MySQL, processes Google Earth KML files, and designs a WEB GIS display interface to construct a system for estimating the flooding possibility (probability in metropolitan areas during typhoons or torrential rains. This study subsequently employs the event of Typhoon Kalmaegi for flooding estimation and display; the estimation results are consistent with the flooding survey data, indicating that the estimations made by the flooding estimation system are correct.

  17. Comparing repetition-based melody segmentation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodríguez López, M.E.; de Haas, Bas; Volk, Anja

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports on a comparative study of computational melody segmentation models based on repetition detection. For the comparison we implemented five repetition-based segmentation models, and subsequently evaluated their capacity to automatically find melodic phrase boundaries in a corpus of 2

  18. Task Repetition and Second Language Speech Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Craig; Kormos, Judit; Minn, Danny

    2017-01-01

    This study examines the relationship between the repetition of oral monologue tasks and immediate gains in L2 fluency. It considers the effect of aural-oral task repetition on speech rate, frequency of clause-final and midclause filled pauses, and overt self-repairs across different task types and proficiency levels and relates these findings to…

  19. Repetitions: A Cross-Cultural Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Kumiko

    1995-01-01

    This study investigated how repetition is used in conversation among native speakers of British English, native speakers of Japanese, and Japanese speakers of English. Five interactional functions of repetition (interruption-orientated, solidarity, silence-avoidance, hesitation, and reformulation) were identified, as well as the cultural factors…

  20. Efficient Management of Nitrogen Fertilizers for Flooded Rice in Relation to Nitrogen Transformations in Flooded Soils

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHUZHAO-LIANG

    1992-01-01

    Recent progresses in efficient management of nitrogen fertilizers for flooded rice in relation to nitrogen transformations in flooded soil were reviewed.Considerable progress has been achieved in the investigation on the mechanism of ammonia loss and the factors affecting it .However,little progress has been obtained in the investigations on nitrification-denitrification loss owing to the lack of method for estimating the fluxes of gaseous N products.Thus,so far the management practices developed or under investigation primarily for reducing ammonia loss are feasible or promising,while those for reducing nitrification-denitrification loss seem obscure,except the point deep placement. In addition,it was emphasized that the prediction of soil N supply and the recommendation of the optimal rate of N application based on it are only semi-quantitative.The priorities in research for improving the prediction are indicated.

  1. Digital repetitive control under varying frequency conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Ramos, Germán A; Olm, Josep M

    2013-01-01

    The tracking/rejection of periodic signals constitutes a wide field of research in the control theory and applications area. Repetitive Control has proven to be an efficient way to face this topic. However, in some applications the frequency of the reference/disturbance signal is time-varying or uncertain. This causes an important performance degradation in the standard Repetitive Control scheme. This book presents some solutions to apply Repetitive Control in varying frequency conditions without loosing steady-state performance. It also includes a complete theoretical development and experimental results in two representative systems. The presented solutions are organized in two complementary branches: varying sampling period Repetitive Control and High Order Repetitive Control. The first approach allows dealing with large range frequency variations while the second allows dealing with small range frequency variations. The book also presents applications of the described techniques to a Roto-magnet plant and...

  2. Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

    2015-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

  3. Nogales flood detention study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, Laura M.; Levick, Lainie; Guertin, D. Phillip; Callegary, James; Guadarrama, Jesus Quintanar; Anaya, Claudia Zulema Gil; Prichard, Andrea; Gray, Floyd; Castellanos, Edgar; Tepezano, Edgar; Huth, Hans; Vandervoet, Prescott; Rodriguez, Saul; Nunez, Jose; Atwood, Donald; Granillo, Gilberto Patricio Olivero; Ceballos, Francisco Octavio Gastellum

    2010-01-01

    Flooding in Ambos Nogales often exceeds the capacity of the channel and adjacent land areas, endangering many people. The Nogales Wash is being studied to prevent future flood disasters and detention features are being installed in tributaries of the wash. This paper describes the application of the KINEROS2 model and efforts to understand the capacity of these detention features under various flood and urbanization scenarios. Results depict a reduction in peak flow for the 10-year, 1-hour event based on current land use in tributaries with detention features. However, model results also demonstrate that larger storm events and increasing urbanization will put a strain on the features and limit their effectiveness.

  4. The tele-connections of long duration floods and their implications for dynamically updating the Flood Control Pool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, Naresh; Najibi, Nasser; Lall, Upmanu

    2016-04-01

    Traditional approaches to flood risk assessment are typically indexed to an instantaneous peak flow event at a specific recording gage on a river, and then extrapolated through hydraulic modeling of that peak flow to the potential area that is likely to be inundated. However, property losses tend to be determined as much by the duration and volume of flooding as by the depth and velocity of inundation. We argue that the existing notion of a flood risk assessment and consequent reservoir flood control operations needs to be revisited, especially for floods due to persistent rainfall (>30 day duration). Our interest lies in explicitly understanding the dependence of the likelihood or frequency and intensity of extreme regional floods on a causal chain of ocean-atmosphere processes whose slow variation and regime-like changes translate into significant and persistent changes in the probability of major floods in the large river basins. An understanding and mapping of these factors into a dynamic risk framework is important for establishing a process by which flood risk for large basins could be systematically updated reflecting changing climate conditions, whether due to human influence, or as part of the natural cycles of climate variation. In this study, we developed an inference system for climate informed flood risk assessment using an integrated statistical modeling approach. We first develop multivariate flood attributes and classify their characteristic spatial variability using the hierarchical clustering approach. Depending on the flood event type, different rainfall inducing mechanisms (e.g. tropical storm, local convection, frontal system, recurrent tropical waves) may be involved with characteristic spatial scales and statistical properties. Hence, we identify the antecedent rainfall conditions for the flood types and map their corresponding specific atmospheric circulation patterns using compositing of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the storm tracks

  5. HEDONIC PRICE APPROACH OF FLOOD EFFECT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Endah Saptutyningsih

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The natural disasters that took place in many parts of Indonesia in the last 10 years have caused an enormous losses, including agricultural sector. The objective of this paper is to estimate the magnitude of the influence of flood disaster on land price changes in Yogyakarta, using a hedonic price approach. The sample are is choosen from the vulnerable flood area mapped by Geographical Information Systems (GIS, from which farmers and land owner are selected as the respondents. The paper finds the evidence of a high level of flood stream coefficient, indicating that the flood significantly reduces the land price. The average of household’s marginal willingness to pay for the decrease in flood stream level is estimated to be Rp 2.175.  Keywords: Agricultural land, marginal willingness to pay (MWTP, hedonic priceJEL classification numbers: Q15, Q19

  6. Strategies for Using Repetition as a Powerful Teaching Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saville, Kirt

    2011-01-01

    Brain research indicates that repetition is of vital importance in the learning process. Repetition is an especially useful tool in the area of music education. The success of repetition can be enhanced by accurate and timely feedback. From "simple repetition" to "repetition with the addition or subtraction of degrees of freedom," there are many…

  7. Strategies for Using Repetition as a Powerful Teaching Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saville, Kirt

    2011-01-01

    Brain research indicates that repetition is of vital importance in the learning process. Repetition is an especially useful tool in the area of music education. The success of repetition can be enhanced by accurate and timely feedback. From "simple repetition" to "repetition with the addition or subtraction of degrees of freedom," there are many…

  8. Repetition priming from moving faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lander, Karen; Bruce, Vicki

    2004-06-01

    Recent experiments have suggested that seeing a familiar face move provides additional dynamic information to the viewer, useful in the recognition of identity. In four experiments, repetition priming was used to investigate whether dynamic information is intrinsic to the underlying face representations. The results suggest that a moving image primes more effectively than a static image, even when the same static image is shown in the prime and the test phases (Experiment 1). Furthermore, when moving images are presented in the test phase (Experiment 2), there is an advantage for moving prime images. The most priming advantage is found with naturally moving faces, rather than with those shown in slow motion (Experiment 3). Finally, showing the same moving sequence at prime and test produced more priming than that found when different moving sequences were shown (Experiment 4). The results suggest that dynamic information is intrinsic to the face representations and that there is an advantage to viewing the same moving sequence at prime and test.

  9. Flood Hazards: Communicating Hydrology and Complexity to the Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, R. R.; Blanchard, S. F.; Mason, R. R.

    2010-12-01

    Floods have a major impact on society and the environment. Since 1952, approximately 1,233 of 1,931 (64%) Federal disaster declarations were due directly to flooding, with an additional 297 due to hurricanes which had associated flooding. Although the overall average annual number of deaths due to flooding has decreased in the United States, the average annual flood damage is rising. According to the Munich Reinsurance Company in their publication “Schadenspiegel 3/2005”, during 1990s the world experienced as much as $500 billion in economic losses due to floods, highlighting the serious need for continued emphasis on flood-loss prevention measures. Flood-loss prevention has two major elements: mitigation (including structural flood-control measures and land-use planning and regulation) and risk awareness. Of the two, increasing risk awareness likely offers the most potential for protecting lives over the near-term and long-term sustainability in the coming years. Flood-risk awareness and risk-aware behavior is dependent on communication, involving both prescriptive and educational measures. Prescriptive measures (for example, flood warnings and stormwater ordinances) are and have been effective, but there is room for improvement. New communications technologies, particularly social media utilizing mobile, smart phones and text devices, for example, could play a significant role in increasing public awareness of long-term risk and near-term flood conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), for example, the Federal agency that monitors the Nation’s rivers, recently released a new service that can better connect the to the public to information about flood hazards. The new service, WaterAlert (URL: http://water.usgs.gov/wateralert/), allows users to set flood notification thresholds of their own choosing for any USGS real-time streamgage. The system then sends emails or text messages to subscribers whenever the threshold conditions are met, as often as the

  10. Dynamics of flood water infiltration and ground water recharge in hyperarid desert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahan, Ofer; Tatarsky, Boaz; Enzel, Yehouda; Kulls, Christoph; Seely, Mary; Benito, Gererdo

    2008-01-01

    A study on flood water infiltration and ground water recharge of a shallow alluvial aquifer was conducted in the hyperarid section of the Kuiseb River, Namibia. The study site was selected to represent a typical desert ephemeral river. An instrumental setup allowed, for the first time, continuous monitoring of infiltration during a flood event through the channel bed and the entire vadose zone. The monitoring system included flexible time domain reflectometry probes that were designed to measure the temporal variation in vadose zone water content and instruments to concurrently measure the levels of flood and ground water. A sequence of five individual floods was monitored during the rainy season in early summer 2006. These newly generated data served to elucidate the dynamics of flood water infiltration. Each flood initiated an infiltration event which was expressed in wetting of the vadose zone followed by a measurable rise in the water table. The data enabled a direct calculation of the infiltration fluxes by various independent methods. The floods varied in their stages, peaks, and initial water contents. However, all floods produced very similar flux rates, suggesting that the recharge rates are less affected by the flood stages but rather controlled by flow duration and available aquifer storage under it. Large floods flood the stream channel terraces and promote the larger transmission losses. These, however, make only a negligible contribution to the recharge of the ground water. It is the flood duration within the active streambed, which may increase with flood magnitude that is important to the recharge process.

  11. FLOODPLAIN, FLOOD COUNTY, USA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The Floodplain Mapping/Redelineation study deliverables depict and quantify the flood risks for the study area. The primary risk classifications used are the...

  12. Localized Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    practitioners will cover a range of practices that can help communities build flood resilience, from small scale interventions such as rain gardens and permeable pavement to coordinated open space and floodplain preservation

  13. Floods and Mold Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mold growth may be a problem after flooding. Excess moisture in the home is cause for concern about indoor air quality primarily because it provides breeding conditions for pests, molds and other microorganisms.

  14. Linking rural community livelihoods to resilience building in flood risk reduction in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Gwimbi

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The increasing occurrence of disastrous flooding events and the mounting losses in both life and property values in Zimbabwe have drawn attention to the flooding situation in the country, especially the rural areas. This article explores the resilience of vulnerable rural communities to flood risks associated within increasingly frequent and severe events linked to climate change. Starting by reviewing the current literature on rural livelihoods, resilience and vulnerability research, the paper argues for a coordinated teamwork approach in flood risk mitigation in rural areas. The paper concludes with several recommendations for enhanced resilience to flood hazards.

  15. Flood durations and their response to ENSO at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Lall, Upmanu

    2014-05-01

    The economic losses associated with flooding are huge. In 2012 alone, economic losses from flooding exceeded 19 billion, and these losses are rising rapidly. Hence, in recent years several methods have been developed to assess the influence of climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic change, on flood hazard and flood loss. To date, most of the studies employ methods that simulate flood hazards based on some measure of instantaneous peak discharge (e.g. peak annual discharge), which is used as a proxy for the severity of an event. However, recent large flood disasters, for example those experienced in Thailand, Pakistan, and Queensland, have shown that for the most disastrous floods, the duration of flooding is also very important. To date, few studies have specifically assessed the impacts of climate change and/or variability on flood durations. In this contribution, we examine relationships between flood durations at the global scale and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At the globally aggregated scale, we found no statistical difference between the number of floods during El Niño and La Niña years, compared to the number of floods during neutral years. However, we found that the durations of floods during both El Niño and La Niña are longer than during neutral years. At the regional scale, we found that ENSO exerts a very large influence on both the number of flood events and the duration of those floods. Statistically significant differences in the average duration of floods between neutral years and El Niño and/or La Niña years were found in Australia and Oceania, Eastern Asia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Middle and South Africa, North Africa, and Western Europe. We present maps showing the geographical patterns of these influences at the basin scale. We also provide composite analyses of atmospheric conditions during long duration floods for several case study regions (e.g. Queensland, Chao Phraya). Finally, we discuss how

  16. Flood Hazard Mapping by Using Geographic Information System and Hydraulic Model: Mert River, Samsun, Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahdettin Demir

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, flood hazard maps were prepared for the Mert River Basin, Samsun, Turkey, by using GIS and Hydrologic Engineering Centers River Analysis System (HEC-RAS. In this river basin, human life losses and a significant amount of property damages were experienced in 2012 flood. The preparation of flood risk maps employed in the study includes the following steps: (1 digitization of topographical data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS, (2 simulation of flood lows of different return periods using a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS, and (3 preparation of flood risk maps by integrating the results of (1 and (2.

  17. The Terrible Flood

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dorine; Houston

    1998-01-01

    Dear Xiao Lan. ’Several times a week, no matter which of the major television news networksI turn to, the screen is filled with tragic pictures of flooding along the YangtzeRiver, and I grieve for the suffering people whose lives are being so terriblydisrupted by this disaster. Even more to be grieved is the terrible number of peoplewho have been killed by the floods and their effects.

  18. Precision markedly attenuates repetitive lift capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Brooke R; Holland, Laura; McGhee, Deirdre; Sampson, John A; Bell, Alison; Stapley, Paul J; Groeller, Herbert

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of precision on time to task failure in a repetitive whole-body manual handling task. Twelve participants were required to repetitively lift a box weighing 65% of their single repetition maximum to shoulder height using either precise or unconstrained box placement. Muscle activity, forces exerted at the ground, 2D body kinematics, box acceleration and psychophysical measures of performance were recorded until task failure was reached. With precision, time to task failure for repetitive lifting was reduced by 72%, whereas the duration taken to complete a single lift and anterior deltoid muscle activation increased by 39% and 25%, respectively. Yet, no significant difference was observed in ratings of perceived exertion or heart rate at task failure. In conclusion, our results suggest that when accuracy is a characteristic of a repetitive manual handling task, physical work capacity will decline markedly. The capacity to lift repetitively to shoulder height was reduced by 72% when increased accuracy was required to place a box upon a shelf. Lifting strategy and muscle activity were also modified, confirming practitioners should take into consideration movement precision when evaluating the demands of repetitive manual handling tasks.

  19. Flood Bypass Capacity Optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siclari, A.; Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    Large river flows can damage adjacent flood-prone areas, by exceeding river channel and levee capacities. Particularly large floods are difficult to contain in leveed river banks alone. Flood bypasses often can efficiently reduce flood risks, where excess river flow is diverted over a weir to bypasses, that incur much less damage and cost. Additional benefits of bypasses include ecosystem protection, agriculture, groundwater recharge and recreation. Constructing or expanding an existing bypass costs in land purchase easements, and levee setbacks. Accounting for such benefits and costs, this study develops a simple mathematical model for optimizing flood bypass capacity using benefit-cost and risk analysis. Application to the Yolo Bypass, an existing bypass along the Sacramento River in California, estimates optimal capacity that economically reduces flood damage and increases various benefits, especially for agriculture. Land availability is likely to limit bypass expansion. Compensation for landowners could relax such limitations. Other economic values could affect the optimal results, which are shown by sensitivity analysis on major parameters. By including land geography into the model, location of promising capacity expansions can be identified.

  20. Methods for estimating magnitude and frequency of floods in Arizona, developed with unregulated and rural peak-flow data through water year 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paretti, Nicholas V.; Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Turney, Lovina A.; Veilleux, Andrea G.

    2014-01-01

    Flooding is among the worst natural disasters responsible for loss of life and property in Arizona, underscoring the importance of accurate estimation of flood magnitude for proper structural design and floodplain mapping. Twenty-four years of additional peak-flow data have been recorded since the last comprehensive regional flood frequency analysis conducted in Arizona. Periodically, flood frequency estimates and regional regression equations must be revised to maintain the accurate estimation of flood frequency and magnitude.

  1. Explorers Presentation: Flooding and Coastal Communities

    OpenAIRE

    Institute, Marine

    2015-01-01

    : Explorers Flooding and Coastal Communities presentation provides an introduction to flooding. This can be used with the lesson plan on building flood defences. It covers: What is a flood? Why does it flood? Where does the water come from? The water cycle; Where is water stored? Examples of Pluvial vs. Coastal flooding; Impacts of flooding; Flood defences; What else influences flooding - Human impacts, Urbanisation, Deforestation, Sea level rise

  2. The 2011 flood event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness, response, damage and recovery of private households and small businesses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinh, Do Thi; Bubeck, Philip; Dung, Nguyen Viet; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-10-01

    Floods frequently cause substantial economic and human losses, particularly in developing countries. For the development of sound flood risk management schemes that reduce flood consequences, detailed insights into the different components of the flood risk management cycle, such as preparedness, response, flood impact analyses and recovery, are needed. However, such detailed insights are often lacking: commonly, only (aggregated) data on direct flood damage are available. Other damage categories such as losses owing to the disruption of production processes are usually not considered, resulting in incomplete risk assessments and possibly inappropriate recommendations for risk management. In this paper, data from 858 face-to-face interviews among flood-prone households and small businesses in Can Tho city in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are presented to gain better insights into the damage caused by the 2011 flood event and its management by households and businesses. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

  3. Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

    2016-12-01

    Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

  4. Flash flood characterisation of the Haor area of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, B.; Suman, A.

    2012-04-01

    Haors are large bowl-shaped flood plain depressions located mostly in north-eastern part of Bangladesh covering about 25% of the entire region. During dry season haors are used for agriculture and during rainy season it is used as fisheries. Haors have profound ecological importance. About 8000 migratory wild birds visit the area annually. Some of the haors are declared at Ramsar sites. Haors are frequently affected by the flash floods due to hilly topography and steep slope of the rivers draining the area. These flash floods spill onto low-lying flood plain lands in the region, inundating crops, damaging infrastructure by erosion and often causing loss of lives and properties. Climate change is exacerbating the situation. For appropriate risk mitigation mechanism it is necessary to explore flood characteristics of that region. The area is not at all studied well. Under a current project a numerical 1D2D model based on MIKE Flood is developed to study the flooding characteristics and estimate the climate change impacts on the haor region. Under this study the progression of flood levels at some key haors in relation to the water level data at specified gauges in the region is analysed. As the region is at the border with India so comparing with the gauges at the border with India is carried out. The flooding in the Haor area is associated with the rainfall in the upstream catchment in India (Meghalaya, Barak and Tripura basins in India). The flood propagation in some of the identified haors in relation to meteorological forcing in the three basins in India is analysed as well. Subsequently, a ranking of haors is done based on individual risks. Based on the IPCC recommendation the precipitation scenario in the upstream catchments under climate change is considered. The study provides the fundamental inputs for preparing a flood risk management plan of the region.

  5. Flood risk and climate change: global and regional perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Kanae, Shinjiro; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Handmer, John; Nicholls, Neville; Peduzzi, Pascal; Mechler, Reinhard; Laurens M. Bouwer; Arnell, Nigel; Mach, Katharine; Muir-Wood, Robert; Brakenridge, G. Robert; Kron, Wolfgang; Benito, Gerardo; Honda, Yasushi

    2014-01-01

    A holistic perspective on changing rainfall-driven flood risk is provided for the late 20th and early 21st centuries. Economic losses from floods have greatly increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. It has not been possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change over the past several decades. Projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall, based on climate models, should contribute to increase...

  6. Potential of 3D City Models to assess flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Bochow, Mathias; Schüttig, Martin; Nagel, Claus; Ross, Lutz; Kreibich, Heidi

    2016-04-01

    Vulnerability, as the product of exposure and susceptibility, is a key factor of the flood risk equation. Furthermore, the estimation of flood loss is very sensitive to the choice of the vulnerability model. Still, in contrast to elaborate hazard simulations, vulnerability is often considered in a simplified manner concerning the spatial resolution and geo-location of exposed objects as well as the susceptibility of these objects at risk. Usually, area specific potential flood loss is quantified on the level of aggregated land-use classes, and both hazard intensity and resistance characteristics of affected objects are represented in highly simplified terms. We investigate the potential of 3D City Models and spatial features derived from remote sensing data to improve the differentiation of vulnerability in flood risk assessment. 3D City Models are based on CityGML, an application scheme of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which represents the 3D geometry, 3D topology, semantics and appearance of objects on different levels of detail. As such, 3D City Models offer detailed spatial information which is useful to describe the exposure and to characterize the susceptibility of residential buildings at risk. This information is further consolidated with spatial features of the building stock derived from remote sensing data. Using this database a spatially detailed flood vulnerability model is developed by means of data-mining. Empirical flood damage data are used to derive and to validate flood susceptibility models for individual objects. We present first results from a prototype application in the city of Dresden, Germany. The vulnerability modeling based on 3D City Models and remote sensing data is compared i) to the generally accepted good engineering practice based on area specific loss potential and ii) to a highly detailed representation of flood vulnerability based on a building typology using urban structure types. Comparisons are drawn in terms of

  7. Societal landslide and flood risk in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Salvati

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available We assessed societal landslide and flood risk to the population of Italy. The assessment was conducted at the national (synoptic and at the regional scales. For the assessment, we used an improved version of the catalogue of historical landslide and flood events that have resulted in loss of life, missing persons, injuries and homelessness in Italy, from 1850 to 2008. This is the recent portion of a larger catalogue spanning the 1941-year period from 68 to 2008. We started by discussing uncertainty and completeness in the historical catalogue, and we performed an analysis of the temporal and geographical pattern of harmful landslide and flood events, in Italy. We found that sites affected by harmful landslides or floods are not distributed evenly in Italy, and we attributed the differences to different physiographical settings. To determine societal risk, we investigated the distribution of the number of landslide and flood casualties (deaths, missing persons, and injured people in Italy, and in the 20 Italian Regions. Using order statistics, we found that the intensity of a landslide or flood event – measured by the total number of casualties in the event – follows a general negative power law trend. Next, we modelled the empirical distributions of the frequency of landslide and flood events with casualties in Italy and in each Region using a Zipf distribution. We used the scaling exponent s of the probability mass function (PMF of the intensity of the events, which controls the proportion of small, medium, and large events, to compare societal risk levels in different geographical areas and for different periods. Lastly, to consider the frequency of the events with casualties, we scaled the PMF obtained for the individual Regions to the total number of events in each Region, in the period 1950–2008, and we used the results to rank societal landslide and flood risk in Italy. We found that in the considered period societal landslide

  8. Societal landslide and flood risk in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvati, P.; Bianchi, C.; Rossi, M.; Guzzetti, F.

    2010-03-01

    We assessed societal landslide and flood risk to the population of Italy. The assessment was conducted at the national (synoptic) and at the regional scales. For the assessment, we used an improved version of the catalogue of historical landslide and flood events that have resulted in loss of life, missing persons, injuries and homelessness in Italy, from 1850 to 2008. This is the recent portion of a larger catalogue spanning the 1941-year period from 68 to 2008. We started by discussing uncertainty and completeness in the historical catalogue, and we performed an analysis of the temporal and geographical pattern of harmful landslide and flood events, in Italy. We found that sites affected by harmful landslides or floods are not distributed evenly in Italy, and we attributed the differences to different physiographical settings. To determine societal risk, we investigated the distribution of the number of landslide and flood casualties (deaths, missing persons, and injured people) in Italy, and in the 20 Italian Regions. Using order statistics, we found that the intensity of a landslide or flood event - measured by the total number of casualties in the event - follows a general negative power law trend. Next, we modelled the empirical distributions of the frequency of landslide and flood events with casualties in Italy and in each Region using a Zipf distribution. We used the scaling exponent s of the probability mass function (PMF) of the intensity of the events, which controls the proportion of small, medium, and large events, to compare societal risk levels in different geographical areas and for different periods. Lastly, to consider the frequency of the events with casualties, we scaled the PMF obtained for the individual Regions to the total number of events in each Region, in the period 1950-2008, and we used the results to rank societal landslide and flood risk in Italy. We found that in the considered period societal landslide risk is largest in Trentino

  9. The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigg, M. A.; Birch, C. E.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Yamazaki, D.; Hirabayashi, Y.; Pappenberger, F.; Dutra, E.; Ward, P. J.; Winsemius, H. C.; Salamon, P.; Dottori, F.; Rudari, R.; Kappes, M. S.; Simpson, A. L.; Hadzilacos, G.; Fewtrell, T. J.

    2016-09-01

    Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%-40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

  10. Flood characteristics of the Haor area in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suman, Asadusjjaman; Bhattacharya, Biswa

    2013-04-01

    In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Bangladesh is a country, which is frequently suffering from flooding. The current research is conducted in the framework of a project, which focuses on the flooding issues in the Haor region in the north-east of Bangladesh. A haor is a saucer-shaped depression, which is used during the dry period (December to mid-May) for agriculture and as a fishery during the wet period (June-November), and thereby presents a very interesting socio-economic perspective of flood risk management. Pre-monsoon flooding till mid-May causes agricultural loss and lot of distress whereas monsoon flooding brings benefits. The area is bordering India, thereby presenting trans-boundary issues as well, and is fed by some flashy Indian catchments. The area is drained mainly through the Surma-Kushiyara river system. The terrain generally is flat and the flashy characteristics die out within a short distance from the border. Limited studies on the region, particularly with the help of numerical models, have been carried out in the past. Therefore, an objective of the current research was to set up numerical models capable of reasonably emulating the physical system. Such models could, for example, associate different gauges to the spatio-temporal variation of hydrodynamic variables and help in carrying out a systemic study on the impact of climate changes. A 1D2D model, with one-dimensional model for the rivers (based on MIKE 11 modelling tool from Danish Hydraulic Institute) and a two

  11. Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

    2015-12-01

    Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

  12. Mitigating flood exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, James M; McLean, Andrew; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Rosen, Alexa; Kelly, Fiona; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Youngs Jr, Georgia A; Jensen, Jessica; Bernal, Oscar; Neria, Yuval

    2013-01-01

    Introduction. In 2011, following heavy winter snowfall, two cities bordering two rivers in North Dakota, USA faced major flood threats. Flooding was foreseeable and predictable although the extent of risk was uncertain. One community, Fargo, situated in a shallow river basin, successfully mitigated and prevented flooding. For the other community, Minot, located in a deep river valley, prevention was not possible and downtown businesses and one-quarter of the homes were inundated, in the city’s worst flood on record. We aimed at contrasting the respective hazards, vulnerabilities, stressors, psychological risk factors, psychosocial consequences, and disaster risk reduction strategies under conditions where flood prevention was, and was not, possible. Methods. We applied the “trauma signature analysis” (TSIG) approach to compare the hazard profiles, identify salient disaster stressors, document the key components of disaster risk reduction response, and examine indicators of community resilience. Results. Two demographically-comparable communities, Fargo and Minot, faced challenging river flood threats and exhibited effective coordination across community sectors. We examined the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in situations where coordinated citizen action was able to prevent disaster impact (hazard avoidance) compared to the more common scenario when unpreventable disaster strikes, causing destruction, harm, and distress. Across a range of indicators, it is clear that successful mitigation diminishes both physical and psychological impact, thereby reducing the trauma signature of the event. Conclusion. In contrast to experience of historic flooding in Minot, the city of Fargo succeeded in reducing the trauma signature by way of reducing risk through mitigation. PMID:28228985

  13. Repetitive Bibliographical Information in Relational Databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Terrence A.

    1988-01-01

    Proposes a solution to the problem of loading repetitive bibliographic information in a microcomputer-based relational database management system. The alternative design described is based on a representational redundancy design and normalization theory. (12 references) (Author/CLB)

  14. Computer-Related Repetitive Stress Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... on the shoulder Epicondylitis: elbow soreness often called "tennis elbow" Ganglion cyst: swelling or lump in the wrist ... Bones, Muscles, and Joints Carpal Tunnel Syndrome Medial Epicondylitis Repetitive Stress Injuries Contact Us Print Resources Send ...

  15. Probabilistic flood extent estimates from social media flood observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, Tom; Eilander, Dirk; van Loenen, Arnejan; Booij, Martijn J.; Wijnberg, Kathelijne M.; Verkade, Jan S.; Wagemaker, Jurjen

    2017-05-01

    The increasing number and severity of floods, driven by phenomena such as urbanization, deforestation, subsidence and climate change, create a growing need for accurate and timely flood maps. In this paper we present and evaluate a method to create deterministic and probabilistic flood maps from Twitter messages that mention locations of flooding. A deterministic flood map created for the December 2015 flood in the city of York (UK) showed good performance (F(2) = 0.69; a statistic ranging from 0 to 1, with 1 expressing a perfect fit with validation data). The probabilistic flood maps we created showed that, in the York case study, the uncertainty in flood extent was mainly induced by errors in the precise locations of flood observations as derived from Twitter data. Errors in the terrain elevation data or in the parameters of the applied algorithm contributed less to flood extent uncertainty. Although these maps tended to overestimate the actual probability of flooding, they gave a reasonable representation of flood extent uncertainty in the area. This study illustrates that inherently uncertain data from social media can be used to derive information about flooding.

  16. Floods of Ohio and Mississippi Rivers, January-February 1937, with a section on the Flood deposits of the Ohio River, January-February 1937

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover, Nathan Clifford; Mansfield, George Rogers

    1938-01-01

    In January and February 1937 the Ohio and mid-Mississippi Rivers experienced floods which, over reaches many hundreds of miles in length, exceeded all previously recorded stages. When measured by the loss of life and property, extent of damage, and general disruption of human activities, these floods constituted a major catastrophe.

  17. Digital repetitive control under varying frequency conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos Fuentes, Germán Andrés

    2012-01-01

    Premi extraordinari doctorat curs 2011-2012, àmbit d’Enginyeria Industrial The tracking/rejection of periodic signals constitutes a wide field of research in the control theory and applications area and Repetitive Control has proven to be an efficient way to face this topic; however, in some applications the period of the signal to be tracked/rejected changes in time or is uncertain, which causes and important performance degradation in the standard repetitive controller. This the...

  18. A DATABASE DESIGN OF MAJOR PAST FLOOD EVENTS IN ROMANIA FROM NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL INVENTORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CHENDEŞ V.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Floods are one of the most significant natural hazards in Romania, causing losses of human lives and important damages to buildings and infrastructure. Romania is recognized among the most flood prone European countries. This work was conducted in the framework of the VULMIN project, aiming to extract the available key indicators of major and historical flood events in Romania, as a basis for better understanding the patterns of socio-economic vulnerability to floods at regional and national scales and of the adaptive capacity of living areas along the main rivers of this country. The existing databases on flood records at global (e.g. EM-DAT International Disaster Database, Dartmouth Flood Observatory, GLIDE database and national level (the preliminary flood risk assessment conducted within the framework of the EU Flood Directive, research projects (e.g. Hydrate, Danube Flood Risk and the available literature have been explored to collect indicators of intensity, magnitude, extent and impacts associated to past major flood events recorded in Romania. Starting from the scientific and reporting needs, taking into account the reliable information found in the documented databases, the main attributes of floods and flash-floods events has been embedded into a proposed database to be developed in the project, which may be useful for further analyses related to hydrological changes associated to climate change.

  19. Analysis and GIS Mapping of Flooding Hazards on 10 May 2016, Guangzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai-Min Lyu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available On 10 May 2016, Guangdong Province, China, suffered a heavy rainstorm. This rainstorm flooded the whole city of Guangzhou. More than 100,000 people were affected by the flooding, in which eight people lost their lives. Subway stations, cars, and buses were submerged. In order to analyse the influential factors of this flooding, topographical characteristics were mapped using Digital Elevation Model (DEM by the Geographical Information System (GIS and meteorological conditions were statistically summarised at both the whole city level and the district level. To analyse the relationship between flood risk and urbanization, GIS was also adopted to map the effect of the subway system using the Multiple Buffer operator over the flooding distribution area. Based on the analyses, one of the significant influential factors of flooding was identified as the urbanization degree, e.g., construction of a subway system, which forms along flood-prone areas. The total economic loss due to flooding in city centers with high urbanization has become very serious. Based on the analyses, the traditional standard of severity of flooding hazards (rainfall intensity grade was modified. Rainfall intensity for severity flooding was decreased from 50 mm to 30 mm in urbanized city centers. In order to protect cities from flooding, a “Sponge City” planning approach is recommended to increase the temporary water storage capacity during heavy rainstorms. In addition, for future city management, the combined use of GIS and Building Information Modelling (BIM is recommended to evaluate flooding hazards.

  20. Assessing Flood Risk Using Reservoir Flood Control Rules

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiang Fu; Yadong Mei; Zhihuai Xiao

    2016-01-01

    The application of conventional flood operation regulation is restricted due to insufficient description of flood control rules for the Pubugou Reservoir in southern China. Based on the require-ments of different flood control objects, this paper proposes to optimize flood control rules with punish-ment mechanism by defining different parameters of flood control rules in response to flood inflow fore-cast and reservoir water level. A genetic algorithm is adopted for solving parameter optimization problem. The failure risk and overflow volume of the downstream insufficient flood control capacity are assessed through the reservoir operation policies. The results show that an optimised regulation can provide better performance than the current flood control rules.

  1. Importance of Integrating High-Resoultion 2D Flood Hazard Maps in the Flood Disaster Management of Marikina City, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tapales, Ben Joseph; Mendoza, Jerico; Uichanco, Christopher; Mahar Francisco Amante Lagmay, Alfredo; Moises, Mark Anthony; Delmendo, Patricia; Eneri Tingin, Neil

    2015-04-01

    Flooding has been a perennial problem in the city of Marikina. These incidences result in human and economic losses. In response to this, the city has been investing in their flood disaster mitigation program in the past years. As a result, flooding in Marikina was reduced by 31% from 1992 to 2004. [1] However, these measures need to be improved so as to mitigate the effects of floods with more than 100 year return period, such as the flooding brought by tropical storm Ketsana in 2009 which generated 455mm of rains over a 24-hour period. Heavy rainfall caused the streets to be completely submerged in water, leaving at least 70 people dead in the area. In 2012, the Southwest monsoon, enhanced by a typhoon, brought massive rains with an accumulated rainfall of 472mm for 22-hours, a number greater than that which was experienced during Ketsana. At this time, the local government units were much more prepared in mitigating the risk with the use of early warning and evacuation measures, resulting to zero casualty in the area. Their urban disaster management program, however, can be further improved through the integration of high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps in the city's flood disaster management. The use of these maps in flood disaster management is essential in reducing flood-related risks. This paper discusses the importance and advantages of integrating flood maps in structural and non-structural mitigation measures in the case of Marikina City. Flood hazard maps are essential tools in predicting the frequency and magnitude of floods in an area. An information that may be determined with the use of these maps is the locations of evacuation areas, which may be accurately positioned using high-resolution 2D flood hazard maps. Evacuation of people in areas that are not vulnerable of being inundated is one of the unnecessary measures that may be prevented and thus optimizing mitigation efforts by local government units. This paper also discusses proposals for a more

  2. The August 2002 flood in the Czech Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sercl, P.; Stehlik, J.

    2003-04-01

    course of the flood has been analysed. It is clear that the cascade cannot protect Prague during such an extreme flood. Below the confluence of the Moldau and Elbe rivers the flood wave propagated in the Elbe and flooded a large area along the river. Therefore the peak discharge decreased a little. The flood caused enormous damage and losses in all regions including the towns of Budweis, Pilsen and Prague. About 100 towns and villages were completely flooded and 350 were partly flooded. 1.6 million people were affected by the flood, 220 thousand were moved from their houses, 15 people died. The total losses are assessed to be 2 to 3 billion Euro. The Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is a governmental institution responsible for monitoring and forecasting the weather and hydrological conditions in the Czech Republic. During the flood in August 2002, the CHMI was continually preparing information, forecasts and reports for decision-making bodies, the public and the rescue system. Overall, the flood protection and rescue system worked very well and many protective measures were performed during the flood, including the evacuation of people. In general, the system was more effective than it was during the previous catastrophic flood in 1997 in the Oder basin. The experience from the 1997 event and the adoption of new laws on crisis management and the integrated rescue system had a positive influence the response of people.

  3. Effects of a flooding event on a threatened black bear population in Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell-Goode, Kaitlin C.; Lowe, Carrie L.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2014-01-01

    The Louisiana black bear, Ursus americanus luteolus, is listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act as a result of habitat loss and human-related mortality. Information on population-level responses of large mammals to flooding events is scarce, and we had a unique opportunity to evaluate the viability of the Upper Atchafalaya River Basin (UARB) black bear population before and after a significant flooding event. We began collecting black bear hair samples in 2007 for a DNA mark-recapture study to estimate abundance (N) and apparent survival (φ). In 2011, the Morganza Spillway was opened to divert floodwaters from the Mississippi River through the UARB, inundating > 50% of our study area, potentially impacting recovery of this important bear population. To evaluate the effects of this flooding event on bear population dynamics, we used a robust design multistate model to estimate changes in transition rates from the flooded area to non-flooded area (ψF→NF) before (2007–2010), during (2010–2011) and after (2011–2012) the flood. Average N across all years of study was 63.2 (SE = 5.2), excluding the year of the flooding event. Estimates of ψF→NF increased from 0.014 (SE = 0.010; meaning that 1.4% of the bears moved from the flooded area to non-flooded areas) before flooding to 0.113 (SE = 0.045) during the flood year, and then decreased to 0.028 (SE= 0.035) after the flood. Although we demonstrated a flood effect on transition rates as hypothesized, the effect was small (88.7% of the bears remained in the flooded area during flooding) and φ was unchanged, suggesting that the 2011 flooding event had minimal impact on survival and site fidelity.

  4. Composite Flood Risk for New Jersery

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the...

  5. Composite Flood Risk for Virgin Island

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Composite Flood Risk layer combines flood hazard datasets from Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zones, NOAA's Shallow Coastal Flooding, and the...

  6. The application of enhanced conveyance calculations in flood prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forbes, G.; Pender, G. [Glasgow Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    2000-07-01

    Over the past twenty years extensive research has been conducted on overbank flow behaviour during river floods. When the main channel flow interacts with flood plain flow, secondary losses other than bed friction act to retard the flow. Traditional one-dimensional modelling tools commonly used in the UK, such as ISIS or HEC-RAS, currently take no account of these secondary losses In an attempt to establish the nature and significance of secondary losses the flood channel facility (FCF) was constructed at HR Wallingford in 1987. As a direct result of the meandering channel series B experiments the James and Wark Method (1992) was developed to predict stage discharge relationships. For a given water level, this method will calculate a value of discharge taking into account the secondary losses. The paper will report on the modification of the method to fit into the river modelling software ISIS. Within the ISIS framework the James and Wark Method is used to calculate conveyance. The aim is to produce a more accurate flood prediction tool than currently exists. The newly developed software has been tested on laboratory data and shown to be highly accurate in both stage discharge and water level prediction. The software has since been applied to natural rivers that have experienced significant flood events. The paper will illustrate the significance of applying flume based conveyance calculation methods at the field scale. (orig.)

  7. Flood Risk Management In Europe: European flood regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hegger, D.L.T.; Bakker, M.H.; Green, C.; Driessen, Peter; Delvaux, B.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van; Suykens, C.; Beyers, J-C.; Deketelaere, K.; Doorn-Hoekveld, W. van; Dieperink, C.

    2013-01-01

    In Europe, water management is moving from flood defense to a risk management approach, which takes both the probability and the potential consequences of flooding into account. In this report, we will look at Directives and (non-)EU- initiatives in place to deal with flood risk in Europe indirectly

  8. Improving Global Flood Forecasting using Satellite Detected Flood Extent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Revilla Romero, B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding is a natural global phenomenon but in many cases is exacerbated by human activity. Although flooding generally affects humans in a negative way, bringing death, suffering, and economic impacts, it also has potentially beneficial effects. Early flood warning and forecasting systems, as well

  9. Improving Global Flood Forecasting using Satellite Detected Flood Extent

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Revilla Romero, B.

    2016-01-01

    Flooding is a natural global phenomenon but in many cases is exacerbated by human activity. Although flooding generally affects humans in a negative way, bringing death, suffering, and economic impacts, it also has potentially beneficial effects. Early flood warning and forecasting systems, as well

  10. Hydrological and hydraulic models for determination of flood-prone and flood inundation areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, Hafzullah; Sadan Ozgur Kirca, Veysel; Burgan, Halil Ibrahim; Kellecioglu, Dorukhan

    2016-05-01

    Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are widely used in most studies on water resources. Especially, when the topography and geomorphology of study area are considered, GIS can ease the work load. Detailed data should be used in this kind of studies. Because of, either the complication of the models or the requirement of highly detailed data, model outputs can be obtained fast only with a good optimization. The aim in this study, firstly, is to determine flood-prone areas in a watershed by using a hydrological model considering two wetness indexes; the topographical wetness index, and the SAGA (System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses) wetness index. The wetness indexes were obtained in the Quantum GIS (QGIS) software by using the Digital Elevation Model of the study area. Flood-prone areas are determined by considering the wetness index maps of the watershed. As the second stage of this study, a hydraulic model, HEC-RAS, was executed to determine flood inundation areas under different return period-flood events. River network cross-sections required for this study were derived from highly detailed digital elevation models by QGIS. Also river hydraulic parameters were used in the hydraulic model. Modelling technology used in this study is made of freely available open source softwares. Based on case studies performed on watersheds in Turkey, it is concluded that results of such studies can be used for taking precaution measures against life and monetary losses due to floods in urban areas particularly.

  11. The Global Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Huddelston, M.; Michel, G.; Thompson, S.; Heynert, K.; Pickering, C.; Abbott Donnelly, I.; Fewtrell, T.; Galy, H.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.; Weerts, A.; Nixon, S.; Davies, P.; Schiferli, D.

    2012-04-01

    Recently, a Global Flood Model (GFM) initiative has been proposed by Willis, UK Met Office, Esri, Deltares and IBM. The idea is to create a global community platform that enables better understanding of the complexities of flood risk assessment to better support the decisions, education and communication needed to mitigate flood risk. The GFM will provide tools for assessing the risk of floods, for devising mitigation strategies such as land-use changes and infrastructure improvements, and for enabling effective pre- and post-flood event response. The GFM combines humanitarian and commercial motives. It will benefit: - The public, seeking to preserve personal safety and property; - State and local governments, seeking to safeguard economic activity, and improve resilience; - NGOs, similarly seeking to respond proactively to flood events; - The insurance sector, seeking to understand and price flood risk; - Large corporations, seeking to protect global operations and supply chains. The GFM is an integrated and transparent set of modules, each composed of models and data. For each module, there are two core elements: a live "reference version" (a worked example) and a framework of specifications, which will allow development of alternative versions. In the future, users will be able to work with the reference version or substitute their own models and data. If these meet the specification for the relevant module, they will interoperate with the rest of the GFM. Some "crowd-sourced" modules could even be accredited and published to the wider GFM community. Our intent is to build on existing public, private and academic work, improve local adoption, and stimulate the development of multiple - but compatible - alternatives, so strengthening mankind's ability to manage flood impacts. The GFM is being developed and managed by a non-profit organization created for the purpose. The business model will be inspired from open source software (eg Linux): - for non-profit usage

  12. FEMA DFIRM Flood Hazard Areas

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — FEMA flood hazard delineations are used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to designate the Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) and for insurance rating...

  13. FEMA DFIRM Base Flood Elevations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Minnesota Department of Natural Resources — The Base Flood Elevation (BFE) table is required for any digital data where BFE lines will be shown on the corresponding Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). Normally,...

  14. 2013 FEMA Flood Hazard Boundaries

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  15. 2013 FEMA Base Flood Elevation

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  16. Base Flood Elevation (BFE) Lines

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — The Base Flood Elevation (BFE) table is required for any digital data where BFE lines will be shown on the corresponding Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM). Normally if...

  17. National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) is a compilation of GIS data that comprises a nationwide digital Flood Insurance Rate Map. The GIS data and services are...

  18. FEMA Q3 Flood Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — The Q3 Flood Data are derived from the Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMS) published by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The file is georeferenced to...

  19. FEMA 100 year Flood Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    California Department of Resources — The Q3 Flood Data product is a digital representation of certain features of FEMA's Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) product, intended for use with desktop mapping...

  20. 2013 FEMA Flood Control Structures

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — The National Flood Hazard Layer (NFHL) data incorporates all Digital Flood Insurance Rate Map(DFIRM) databases published by FEMA, and any Letters Of Map Revision...

  1. Multivariate pluvial flood damage models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Ootegem, Luc [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium); SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Verhofstadt, Elsy [SHERPPA — Ghent University (Belgium); Van Herck, Kristine; Creten, Tom [HIVA — University of Louvain (Belgium)

    2015-09-15

    Depth–damage-functions, relating the monetary flood damage to the depth of the inundation, are commonly used in the case of fluvial floods (floods caused by a river overflowing). We construct four multivariate damage models for pluvial floods (caused by extreme rainfall) by differentiating on the one hand between ground floor floods and basement floods and on the other hand between damage to residential buildings and damage to housing contents. We do not only take into account the effect of flood-depth on damage, but also incorporate the effects of non-hazard indicators (building characteristics, behavioural indicators and socio-economic variables). By using a Tobit-estimation technique on identified victims of pluvial floods in Flanders (Belgium), we take into account the effect of cases of reported zero damage. Our results show that the flood depth is an important predictor of damage, but with a diverging impact between ground floor floods and basement floods. Also non-hazard indicators are important. For example being aware of the risk just before the water enters the building reduces content damage considerably, underlining the importance of warning systems and policy in this case of pluvial floods. - Highlights: • Prediction of damage of pluvial floods using also non-hazard information • We include ‘no damage cases’ using a Tobit model. • The damage of flood depth is stronger for ground floor than for basement floods. • Non-hazard indicators are especially important for content damage. • Potential gain of policies that increase awareness of flood risks.

  2. The Prevalence and Phenomenology of Repetitive Behavior in Genetic Syndromes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, Joanna; Oliver, Chris; Arron, Kate; Burbidge, Cheryl; Berg, Katy

    2009-01-01

    We investigated the prevalence and phenomenology of repetitive behavior in genetic syndromes to detail profiles of behavior. The Repetitive Behaviour Questionnaire (RBQ) provides fine-grained identification of repetitive behaviors. The RBQ was employed to examine repetitive behavior in Angelman (N = 104), Cornelia de Lange (N = 101), Cri-du-Chat…

  3. Optimal strategies for flood prevention

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijgenraam, Carel; Brekelmans, Ruud; den Hertog, Dick; Roos, C.

    2016-01-01

    Flood prevention policy is of major importance to the Netherlands since a large part of the country is below sea level and high water levels in rivers may also cause floods. In this paper we propose a dike height optimization model to determine economically efficient flood protection standards. We i

  4. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  5. Flood Risk Assessment as a Part of Integrated Flood and Drought Analysis. Case Study: Southern Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Suryadi, Fransiscus X.; de Fraiture, Charlotte

    2015-04-01

    Flood and drought are two main meteorological catastrophes that have created adverse consequences to more than 80% of total casualties universally, 50% by flood and 31% by drought. Those natural hazards have the tendency of increasing frequency and degree of severity and it is expected that climate change will exacerbate their occurrences and impacts. In addition, growing population and society interference are the other key factors that pressure on and exacerbate the adverse impacts. Consequently, nowadays, the loss from any disasters becomes less and less acceptable bringing about more people's consciousness on mitigation measures and management strategies and policies. In general, due to the difference in their inherent characteristics and time occurrences flood and drought mitigation and protection have been separately implemented, managed, and supervised by different group of authorities. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop an integrated mitigation measure or a management policy able to surmount both problems to acceptable levels and is conveniently monitored by the same group of civil servants which will be economical in both short- and long-term. As aforementioned of the distinction of fundamental peculiarities and occurrence, the assessment processes of floods and droughts are separately performed using their own specific techniques. In the first part of the research flood risk assessment is focused in order to delineate the flood prone area. The study area is a river plain in southern Thailand where flooding is influenced by monsoon and depression. The work is mainly concentrated on physically-based computational modeling and an assortment of tools was applied for: data completion, areal rainfall interpolation, statistical distribution, rainfall-runoff analysis and flow model simulation. The outcome from the simulation can be concluded that the flood prone areas susceptible to inundation are along the riparian areas, particularly at the

  6. Flood disaster risk assessment of rural housings--a case study of Kouqian Town in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-04-03

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and "3S" technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  7. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Zhang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems, taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area.

  8. Flood Disaster Risk Assessment of Rural Housings — A Case Study of Kouqian Town in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qi; Zhang, Jiquan; Jiang, Liupeng; Liu, Xingpeng; Tong, Zhijun

    2014-01-01

    Floods are a devastating kind of natural disaster. About half of the population in China lives in rural areas. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the flood disaster risk of rural housings. The results are valuable for guiding the rescue and relief goods layout. In this study, we take the severe flood disaster that happened at Kouqian Town in Jilin, China in 2010 as an example to build an risk assessment system for flood disaster on rural housings. Based on the theory of natural disaster risk formation and “3S” technology (remote sensing, geography information systems and global positioning systems), taking the rural housing as the bearing body, we assess the flood disaster risk from three aspects: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The hazard presented as the flood submerging range and depth. The exposure presented as the values of the housing and the property in it. The vulnerability presented as the relationship between the losses caused by flood and flood depth. We validate the model by the field survey after the flood disaster. The risk assessment results highly coincide with the field survey losses. This model can be used to assess the risk of other flood events in this area. PMID:24705363

  9. Management of flood victims: Chainat Province, central Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wisitwong, Anchaleeporn; McMillan, Margaret

    2010-03-01

    This article focuses on the processes of flood management and the experiences of flood victims in Chainat Province, central Thailand, so as to develop knowledge about the future handling of such disasters. A phenomenological qualitative approach was used to describe the processes of providing assistance to flood victims. In-depth interviews and observation were used to collect the data. Criterion sampling was used to select 23 participants. Content analysis of the data revealed that some flood victims could predict flooding based on prior experiences, so they prepared themselves. The data revealed six themes that demonstrated that those who could not predict how floods would impact on them were unprepared and suffered losses and disruption to their daily life. Damaged routes meant people could not go to work, resulting in the loss of income. There was a lack of sanitary appliances and clean drinking water, people were sick, and experienced stress. At the community level, people helped one another, making sandbags and building walls as a defense against water. They formed support groups to enable the processing of stressful experiences. However, later, the water became stagnant and contaminated, creating an offensive smell. The government provided assistance to cut off electricity services, food and water, toilets and health services, and water drainage. In the recovery phase, the victims needed money for investment, employment opportunities, books for children, extra time to pay off loans, reconnection of electricity, surveys of damage, and pensions to deal with damage and recovery.

  10. Strengthening flood warning systems: the benefits of encouraging social preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Seibert, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Flood warning and response have normally been focused on the technical aspects and disregarded the connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social dimensions. An increasing body of research, however, points at the importance of considering socio-hydrological aspects to improve flood damage mitigation. One of the key factors is the preparedness of the public and first responders during flood situations, which is influenced by many behavioural traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or denial. In this study, we investigate the impact of social preparedness on the efficiency of flood early warning systems by using the recency of flood experience as a proxy for social preparedness. To this end, we developed a stylised model and a synthetic data-set to perform a hypothetical analysis. The main findings point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially when the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. More specifically, efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings from this study provide insights into the importance of considering social preparedness in decision-making for disaster risk reduction.

  11. Likelihood methods and classical burster repetition

    CERN Document Server

    Graziani, C; Graziani, Carlo; Lamb, Donald Q

    1995-01-01

    We develop a likelihood methodology which can be used to search for evidence of burst repetition in the BATSE catalog, and to study the properties of the repetition signal. We use a simplified model of burst repetition in which a number N_{\\rm r} of sources which repeat a fixed number of times N_{\\rm rep} are superposed upon a number N_{\\rm nr} of non-repeating sources. The instrument exposure is explicitly taken into account. By computing the likelihood for the data, we construct a probability distribution in parameter space that may be used to infer the probability that a repetition signal is present, and to estimate the values of the repetition parameters. The likelihood function contains contributions from all the bursts, irrespective of the size of their positional errors --- the more uncertain a burst's position is, the less constraining is its contribution. Thus this approach makes maximal use of the data, and avoids the ambiguities of sample selection associated with data cuts on error circle size. We...

  12. Attribution of regional flood changes based on scaling fingerprints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viglione, Alberto; Merz, Bruno; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Parajka, Juraj; Nester, Thomas; Blöschl, Günter

    2016-07-01

    Changes in the river flood regime may be due to atmospheric processes (e.g., increasing precipitation), catchment processes (e.g., soil compaction associated with land use change), and river system processes (e.g., loss of retention volume in the floodplains). This paper proposes a new framework for attributing flood changes to these drivers based on a regional analysis. We exploit the scaling characteristics (i.e., fingerprints) with catchment area of the effects of the drivers on flood changes. The estimation of their relative contributions is framed in Bayesian terms. Analysis of a synthetic, controlled case suggests that the accuracy of the regional attribution increases with increasing number of sites and record lengths, decreases with increasing regional heterogeneity, increases with increasing difference of the scaling fingerprints, and decreases with an increase of their prior uncertainty. The applicability of the framework is illustrated for a case study set in Austria, where positive flood trends have been observed at many sites in the past decades. The individual scaling fingerprints related to the atmospheric, catchment, and river system processes are estimated from rainfall data and simple hydrological modeling. Although the distributions of the contributions are rather wide, the attribution identifies precipitation change as the main driver of flood change in the study region. Overall, it is suggested that the extension from local attribution to a regional framework, including multiple drivers and explicit estimation of uncertainty, could constitute a similar shift in flood change attribution as the extension from local to regional flood frequency analysis.

  13. Application of quantification theory in risk assessment of mine flooding

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Lian-guo; MIAO Xie-xing; DONG Xu; WU Yu

    2008-01-01

    Hundreds of mine flooding accidents have occurred in China since the 1950s. These flooding accidents result in sub-merged working faces, even entire coal mines, leading to tremendous economic losses. It is reported that among 601 state-owned mines in China, 285 mines are exposed to water-inrush risks. The water pressure is becoming larger and larger with the increase of mining depth, leading to an increase of water-inrush hazards. Only when the risk of mine flooding is predicted in a reasonable manner, can we take timely and effective measures to prevent mine flooding from taking place. In our investigation quantifica-tion(II) theory is used to study the risk prediction problem about mine flooding. By investigating the main factors which affect mine flooding, eight risk assessment items have been identified. The extent of risk is classified into 4 grades. Given the data from differ-ent periods in the Feicheng mining area, a prediction model for the risk of mine flooding is established. The test analysis indicates a model correlation coefficient of 0.97 and the incidence of discrimination is as high as 97.37%, which implies that the effect of the model is quite satisfactory. With the help of computers, this method can be widely applied.

  14. A physical approach on flood risk vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, Bruno; Fuchs, Sven; Keiler, Margreth

    2013-04-01

    The design of efficient flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation relies on a careful vulnerability analysis of the elements exposed to flood hazard. Recently, extensive research efforts were undertaken to develop and refine empirical relationships linking the structural vulnerability of buildings to the intensity of the impacting water-related hazard processes. These empirical vulnerability functions allow for an estimation of the expected direct losses as a result of the hazard scenario on the basis of a spatially explicit representation of the process patterns and the elements at risk, and improve both risk assessments and cost-benefit analyses of planned mitigation strategies. However, due to the underlying empiricism of such vulnerability functions, the physics of the damage generating mechanisms remain unveiled, and, as such, the applicability of the empirical approach for planning hazard-proof residential buildings is rather limited. Therefore, we propose a conceptual assessment scheme to close this gap. This assessment scheme comprises distinct analytical steps: (a) modelling the process intensity and (b) the impact on the element at risk exposed, (c) the physical response of the building envelope, (d) the damage accounting and (f) the economic damage valuation. This dynamic assessment supports all relevant planning activities with respect to a minimisation of flood hazard losses, and can be implemented in the operational risk assessment procedure.

  15. Societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey – an overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koç Gamze

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Turkey has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. Although there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, with this study it is aimed to investigate flood patterns, societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey, as well as providing a comparative overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses by analysing EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database and TABB (Turkey Disaster Data Base databases on disaster losses throughout Turkey for the years 1960-2014. The comparison of these two databases reveals big mismatches of the flood data, e.g. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss, differ dramatically. With this paper, it has been explored reasons for mismatches. Biases and fallacies for loss data in the two databases has been discussed as well. Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR, the study could offer a base-work for developing guidelines and procedures on how to standardize loss databases and implement across the other hazard events, as well as substantial insights for flood risk mitigation and adaptation studies in Turkey and will offer valuable insights for other (European countries.

  16. Rethinking the relationship between flood risk perception and flood management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholz, S; Muro, M; Jeffrey, P; Smith, H M

    2014-04-15

    Although flood risk perceptions and their concomitant motivations for behaviour have long been recognised as significant features of community resilience in the face of flooding events, there has, for some time now, been a poorly appreciated fissure in the accompanying literature. Specifically, rationalist and constructivist paradigms in the broader domain of risk perception provide different (though not always conflicting) contexts for interpreting evidence and developing theory. This contribution reviews the major constructs that have been applied to understanding flood risk perceptions and contextualises these within broader conceptual developments around risk perception theory and contemporary thinking around flood risk management. We argue that there is a need to re-examine and re-invigorate flood risk perception research, in a manner that is comprehensively underpinned by more constructivist thinking around flood risk management as well as by developments in broader risk perception research. We draw attention to an historical over-emphasis on the cognitive perceptions of those at risk to the detriment of a richer understanding of a wider range of flood risk perceptions such as those of policy-makers or of tax-payers who live outside flood affected areas as well as the linkages between these perspectives and protective measures such as state-supported flood insurance schemes. Conclusions challenge existing understandings of the relationship between risk perception and flood management, particularly where the latter relates to communication strategies and the extent to which those at risk from flooding feel responsible for taking protective actions.

  17. Flooding on Elbe River

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Heavy rains in Central Europe over the past few weeks have led to some of the worst flooding the region has witnessed in more than a century. The floods have killed more than 100 people in Germany, Russia, Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic and have led to as much as $20 billion in damage. This false-color image of the Elbe River and its tributaries was taken on August 20, 2002, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), flying aboard NASA's Terra satellite. The floodwaters that inundated Dresden, Germany, earlier this week have moved north. As can be seen, the river resembles a fairly large lake in the center of the image just south of the town of Wittenberg. Flooding was also bad further downriver in the towns of Maqgdeburge and Hitzacker. Roughly 20,000 people were evacuated from their homes in northern Germany. Fifty thousand troops, border police, and technical assistance workers were called in to combat the floods along with 100,000 volunteers. The floodwaters are not expected to badly affect Hamburg, which sits on the mouth of the river on the North Sea. Credit:Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

  18. Fast Flooding over Manhattan

    CERN Document Server

    Clementi, Andrea; Silvestri, Riccardo

    2010-01-01

    We consider a Mobile Ad-hoc NETwork (MANET) formed by n agents that move at speed V according to the Manhattan Random-Way Point model over a square region of side length L. The resulting stationary (agent) spatial probability distribution is far to be uniform: the average density over the "central zone" is asymptotically higher than that over the "suburb". Agents exchange data iff they are at distance at most R within each other. We study the flooding time of this MANET: the number of time steps required to broadcast a message from one source agent to all agents of the network in the stationary phase. We prove the first asymptotical upper bound on the flooding time. This bound holds with high probability, it is a decreasing function of R and V, and it is tight for a wide and relevant range of the network parameters (i.e. L, R and V). A consequence of our result is that flooding over the sparse and highly-disconnected suburb can be as fast as flooding over the dense and connected central zone. Rather surprisin...

  19. High-resolution urban flood modelling - a joint probability approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartnett, Michael; Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen

    2017-04-01

    (Divoky et al., 2005). Nevertheless, such events occur and in Ireland alone there are several cases of serious damage due to flooding resulting from a combination of high sea water levels and river flows driven by the same meteorological conditions (e.g. Olbert et al. 2015). A November 2009 fluvial-coastal flooding of Cork City bringing €100m loss was one such incident. This event was used by Olbert et al. (2015) to determine processes controlling urban flooding and is further explored in this study to elaborate on coastal and fluvial flood mechanisms and their roles in controlling water levels. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to assess combined effect of multiple source flooding on flood probability and severity in urban areas and to establish a set of conditions that dictate urban flooding due to extreme climatic events. These conditions broadly combine physical flood drivers (such as coastal and fluvial processes), their mechanisms and thresholds defining flood severity. The two main physical processes controlling urban flooding: high sea water levels (coastal flooding) and high river flows (fluvial flooding), and their threshold values for which flood is likely to occur, are considered in this study. Contribution of coastal and fluvial drivers to flooding and their impacts are assessed in a two-step process. The first step involves frequency analysis and extreme value statistical modelling of storm surges, tides and river flows and ultimately the application of joint probability method to estimate joint exceedence return periods for combination of surges, tide and river flows. In the second step, a numerical model of Cork Harbour MSN_Flood comprising a cascade of four nested high-resolution models is used to perform simulation of flood inundation under numerous hypothetical coastal and fluvial flood scenarios. The risk of flooding is quantified based on a range of physical aspects such as the extent and depth of inundation (Apel et al

  20. Hearing loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decreased hearing; Deafness; Loss of hearing; Conductive hearing loss; Sensorineural hearing loss; Presbycusis ... Symptoms of hearing loss may include: Certain sounds seeming too ... conversations when two or more people are talking Difficulty ...

  1. A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

    2016-04-01

    information and to generate knowledge in the stakeholders for improving flood risk management. In particular, Floodrisk comprises a set of calculators capable of computing human or economic losses for a collection of assets, caused by a given scenario event, explicitly covering mitigation and adaptation measures (Mancusi et al., 2015). It is important to mention that despite the fact that some literature models incorporates calculator philosophies identical to the ones implemented in the FloodRisk engine, its implementation might vary significantly, such as the need for a user-friendly and intuitive user interface, or the capability of running the calculations on any platform (Windows, Mac, Linux, etc.), the ability to promotes extensibility, efficient testability, and scientific operability. FloodRisk has been designed as an initiative for implemented a standard and harmonized procedure to determine the flood impacts. Albano, R.; Mancusi, L.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J. Collaborative Strategies for Sustainable EU Flood Risk Management: FOSS and Geospatial Tools - Challenges and Opportunities for Operative Risk Analysis. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2015, 4, 2704-2727. Mancusi, L., Albano, R., Sole, A.. FloodRisk: a QGIS plugin for flood consequences estimation, In: Geomatics Workbooks n°12 - FOSS4G Europe Como, 2015

  2. FINANCING OF THE FLOOD DEFENSE IN DABULENI-CETATE AREA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dorin COSMA

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Danube River Basin has been frequently affected by floods in the last decades which often gained historical meanings, the latest being recorded in 2006 and 2013. The material losses were very high and on the Cetate-Dabuleni sector of the Danube river, after the floods of 2006 the dikes have been damaged and partially destroyed. In the end the Rast locality was almost total relocated. Following these events, we need to rebuild the flood defense infrastructure in the Lower Danube, but after the first assessment the costs are very high. With this paper we propose the ways of funding the flood protection works on the Lower Danube, research being done on the Cetate-Dabuleni Danube's sector.

  3. Development of Flood Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joy J. Labo,

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Community-based early warning systems (CBEWS is a “people-centered” system and empowers individuals and communities threatened by hazards to act on sufficient time and in an appropriate manner to reduce the possibility of personal injury, loss of life, damage to property, environment and loss of livelihood. These things lead to the development of the device necessary for the protection of the community against flood hazards as it allows people to get prepared with sufficient time. An alarm system was developed to monitor the water level on Salog River that overflows during heavy rains. The water level sensors were submerged in a canal of water to test the functionality of the device before its installation. Computer programs were created to enhance the monitoring of water level: the River Monitor Software and the Water Level Monitor. The LED arrays emit light according to water level; green for low, orange for medium, and red for high. A siren also alarms with different intervals (30 seconds for low, 15 seconds for medium, and a continuous alarm for high. Automatic emergency lighting was integrated in the design and lights up during power outages powered by rechargeable sealed battery that charges when ac power is supplied to the device. Levels were established based on available data; low water level means awareness; medium water level means preparedness and high water level means immediate response is necessary.

  4. Real Time Estimation of the Calgary Floods Using Limited Remote Sensing Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Schnebele

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Every year, flood disasters are responsible for widespread destruction and loss of human life. Remote sensing data are capable of providing valuable, synoptic coverage of flood events but are not always available because of satellite revisit limitations, obstructions from cloud cover or vegetation canopy, or expense. In addition, knowledge of road accessibility is imperative during all phases of a flood event. In June 2013, the City of Calgary experienced sudden and extensive flooding but lacked comprehensive remote sensing coverage. Using this event as a case study, this work illustrates how data from non-authoritative sources are used to augment traditional data and methods to estimate flood extent and identify affected roads during a flood disaster. The application of these data, which may have varying resolutions and uncertainities, provide an estimation of flood extent when traditional data and methods are lacking or incomplete. When flooding occurs over multiple days, it is possible to construct an estimate of the advancement and recession of the flood event. Non-authoritative sources also provide flood information at the micro-level, which can be difficult to capture from remote sensing data; however, the distibution and quantity of data collected from these sources will affect the quality of the flood estimations.

  5. Combining hazard, exposure and social vulnerability to provide lessons for flood risk management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koks, E. E.; Jongman, B.; Husby, T. G.; Botzen, W. J W

    2015-01-01

    Flood risk assessments provide inputs for the evaluation of flood risk management (FRM) strategies. Traditionally, such risk assessments provide estimates of loss of life and economic damage. However, the effect of policy measures aimed at reducing risk also depends on the capacity of households to

  6. The role of Natural Flood Management in managing floods in large scale basins during extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; ODonnell, Greg; Nicholson, Alex; Hetherington, David

    2016-04-01

    There is a strong evidence database showing the negative impacts of land use intensification and soil degradation in NW European river basins on hydrological response and to flood impact downstream. However, the ability to target zones of high runoff production and the extent to which we can manage flood risk using nature-based flood management solution are less known. A move to planting more trees and having less intense farmed landscapes is part of natural flood management (NFM) solutions and these methods suggest that flood risk can be managed in alternative and more holistic ways. So what local NFM management methods should be used, where in large scale basin should they be deployed and how does flow is propagate to any point downstream? Generally, how much intervention is needed and will it compromise food production systems? If we are observing record levels of rainfall and flow, for example during Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 in the North West of England, what other flood management options are really needed to complement our traditional defences in large basins for the future? In this paper we will show examples of NFM interventions in the UK that have impacted at local scale sites. We will demonstrate the impact of interventions at local, sub-catchment (meso-scale) and finally at the large scale. These tools include observations, process based models and more generalised Flood Impact Models. Issues of synchronisation and the design level of protection will be debated. By reworking observed rainfall and discharge (runoff) for observed extreme events in the River Eden and River Tyne, during Storm Desmond, we will show how much flood protection is needed in large scale basins. The research will thus pose a number of key questions as to how floods may have to be managed in large scale basins in the future. We will seek to support a method of catchment systems engineering that holds water back across the whole landscape as a major opportunity to management water

  7. Health Care Access and Utilization after the 2010 Pakistan Floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquet, Gabrielle A; Kirsch, Thomas; Durrani, Aqsa; Sauer, Lauren; Doocy, Shannon

    2016-10-01

    Introduction The 2010 floods submerged more than one-fifth of Pakistan's land area and affected more than 20 million people. Over 1.6 million homes were damaged or destroyed and 2,946 direct injuries and 1,985 deaths were reported. Infrastructure damage was widespread, including critical disruptions to the power and transportation networks. Hypothesis Damage and loss of critical infrastructure will affect the population's ability to seek and access adequate health care for years to come. This study sought to evaluate factors associated with access to health care in the aftermath of the 2010 Pakistan floods. A population-proportional, randomized cluster-sampling survey method with 80 clusters of 20 (1,600) households of the flood-affected population was used. Heads of households were surveyed approximately six months after flood onset. Multivariate analysis was used to determine significance. A total of 77.8% of households reported needing health services within the first month after the floods. Household characteristics, including rural residence location, large household size, and lower pre- and post-flood income, were significantly associated (Pfloods was associated with urban residence location, suggesting that locating health care providers in rural areas may be difficult. Access to health services also was associated with post-flood income level, suggesting health resources are not readily available to households suffering great income losses. Jacquet GA , Kirsch T , Durrani A , Sauer L , Doocy S . Health care access and utilization after the 2010 Pakistan floods. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(5):485-491.

  8. Interacting effects of insects and flooding on wood decomposition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael D Ulyshen

    Full Text Available Saproxylic arthropods are thought to play an important role in wood decomposition but very few efforts have been made to quantify their contributions to the process and the factors controlling their activities are not well understood. In the current study, mesh exclusion bags were used to quantify how arthropods affect loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L. decomposition rates in both seasonally flooded and unflooded forests over a 31-month period in the southeastern United States. Wood specific gravity (based on initial wood volume was significantly lower in bolts placed in unflooded forests and for those unprotected from insects. Approximately 20.5% and 13.7% of specific gravity loss after 31 months was attributable to insect activity in flooded and unflooded forests, respectively. Importantly, minimal between-treatment differences in water content and the results from a novel test carried out separately suggest the mesh bags had no significant impact on wood mass loss beyond the exclusion of insects. Subterranean termites (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae: Reticulitermes spp. were 5-6 times more active below-ground in unflooded forests compared to flooded forests based on wooden monitoring stakes. They were also slightly more active above-ground in unflooded forests but these differences were not statistically significant. Similarly, seasonal flooding had no detectable effect on above-ground beetle (Coleoptera richness or abundance. Although seasonal flooding strongly reduced Reticulitermes activity below-ground, it can be concluded from an insignificant interaction between forest type and exclusion treatment that reduced above-ground decomposition rates in seasonally flooded forests were due largely to suppressed microbial activity at those locations. The findings from this study indicate that southeastern U.S. arthropod communities accelerate above-ground wood decomposition significantly and to a similar extent in both flooded and unflooded forests

  9. LHC beam loss pattern recognition

    CERN Document Server

    Marsili, A; Puzo, P

    2011-01-01

    One of the systems protecting CERN’s Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the Beam Loss Monitoring system (BLM). More than 3600 monitors are installed around the ring. The beam losses are permanently integrated over 12 different time intervals (from 40 microseconds to 84 seconds). When any loss exceeds the thresholds defined for the integration window, the beam is removed from the machine. Understanding the origin of a beam loss is crucial for machine operation, as it can help to avoid a repetition of the same scenario. The signals read from given monitors can be considered as entries of a vector. This article presents how a loss map of unknown cause can be decomposed using vector based analysis derived from well-known loss scenarios. The algorithms achieving this decomposition are described, as well as the accuracy of the results.

  10. GIS Support for Flood Rescue

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liang, Gengsheng; Mioc, Darka; Anton, François

    2007-01-01

    Under flood events, the ground traffic is blocked in and around the flooded area due to damages to roads and bridges. The traditional transportation network may not always help people to make a right decision for evacuation. In order to provide dynamic road information needed for flood rescue, we...... developed an adaptive web-based transportation network application using Oracle technology. Moreover, the geographic relationships between the road network and flood areas are taken into account. The overlay between the road network and flood polygons is computed on the fly. This application allows users...... to retrieve the shortest and safest route in Fredericton road network during flood event. It enables users to make a timely decision for flood rescue. We are using Oracle Spatial to deal with emergency situations that can be applied to other constrained network applications as well....

  11. ENSO impacts on flood risk at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Dettinger, Michael; Jongman, Brenden; Kummu, Matti; Winsemius, Hessel

    2014-05-01

    (and by extension insured losses). We carried out the research by simulating daily river discharges using a global hydrological model (PCR-GLOBWB), forced with gridded climate reanalysis time-series (EU-WATCH). From this, we derived peak annual flood volumes for large-scale river basins globally. These were used to force a global inundation model (dynRout) to map inundation extent and depth for return periods between 2 and 1000 years, under El Niño conditions, neutral conditions, and La Niña conditions. Theses flood hazard maps were combined with global datasets on socioeconomic variables such as population and income to represent the socioeconomic exposure to flooding, and depth-damage curves to represent vulnerability.

  12. Medium range flood forecasts at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voisin, N.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Wood, E. F.

    2006-12-01

    While weather and climate forecast methods have advanced greatly over the last two decades, this capability has yet to be evidenced in mitigation of water-related natural hazards (primarily floods and droughts), especially in the developing world. Examples abound of extreme property damage and loss of life due to floods in the underdeveloped world. For instance, more than 4.5 million people were affected by the July 2000 flooding of the Mekong River and its tributaries in Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Thailand. The February- March 2000 floods in the Limpopo River of Mozambique caused extreme disruption to that country's fledgling economy. Mitigation of these events through advance warning has typically been modest at best. Despite the above noted improvement in weather and climate forecasts, there is at present no system for forecasting of floods globally, notwithstanding that the potential clearly exists. We describe a methodology that is eventually intended to generate global flood predictions routinely. It draws heavily from the experimental North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and the companion Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) for development of nowcasts, and the University of Washington Experimental Hydrologic Prediction System to develop ensemble hydrologic forecasts based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models which serve both as nowcasts (and hence reduce the need for in situ precipitation and other observations in parts of the world where surface networks are critically deficient) and provide forecasts for lead times as long as fifteen days. The heart of the hydrologic modeling system is the University of Washington/Princeton University Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model. In the prototype (tested using retrospective data), VIC is driven globally up to the time of forecast with daily ERA40 precipitation (rescaled on a monthly basis to a station-based global climatology), ERA40 wind, and ERA40

  13. Post-event analysis and flash flood hydrology in Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hlavčová Kamila

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This work examines the main features of the flash flood regime in Central Europe as revealed by an analysis of flash floods that have occurred in Slovakia. The work is organized into the following two parts: The first part focuses on estimating the rainfall-runoff relationships for 3 major flash flood events, which were among the most severe events since 1998 and caused a loss of lives and a large amount of damage. The selected flash floods occurred on the 20th of July, 1998, in the Malá Svinka and Dubovický Creek basins; the 24th of July, 2001, at Štrbský Creek; and the 19th of June, 2004, at Turniansky Creek. The analysis aims to assess the flash flood peaks and rainfall-runoff properties by combining post-flood surveys and the application of hydrological and hydraulic post-event analyses. Next, a spatially-distributed hydrological model based on the availability of the raster information of the landscape’s topography, soil and vegetation properties, and rainfall data was used to simulate the runoff. The results from the application of the distributed hydrological model were used to analyse the consistency of the surveyed peak discharges with respect to the estimated rainfall properties and drainage basins. In the second part these data were combined with observations from flash flood events which were observed during the last 100 years and are focused on an analysis of the relationship between the flood peaks and the catchment area. The envelope curve was shown to exhibit a more pronounced decrease with the catchment size with respect to other flash flood relationships found in the Mediterranean region. The differences between the two relationships mainly reflect changes in the coverage of the storm sizes and hydrological characteristics between the two regions.

  14. Citizen involvement in flood risk governance: flood groups and networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Twigger-Ross Clare

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade has been a policy shift withinUK flood risk management towards localism with an emphasis on communities taking ownership of flood risk. There is also an increased focus on resilience and, more specifically, on community resilience to flooding. This paper draws on research carried out for UK Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs to evaluate the Flood Resilience Community Pathfinder (FRCP scheme in England. Resilience is conceptualised as multidimensional and linked to exisiting capacities within a community. Creating resilience to flooding is an ongoing process of adaptation, learning from past events and preparing for future risks. This paper focusses on the development of formal and informal institutions to support improved flood risk management: institutional resilience capacity. It includes new institutions: e.g. flood groups, as well as activities that help to build inter- and intra- institutional resilience capacity e.g. community flood planning. The pathfinder scheme consisted of 13 projects across England led by local authorities aimed at developing community resilience to flood risk between 2013 – 2015. This paper discusses the nature and structure of flood groups, the process of their development, and the extent of their linkages with formal institutions, drawing out the barriers and facilitators to developing institutional resilience at the local level.

  15. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  16. Near- infrared, mode-locked waveguide lasers with multi-GHz repetition rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, A.; Lagatsky, A. A.; Zhang, Z. Y.; Zhou, K. J.; Wang, Q.; Hogg, R. A.; Pradeesh, K.; Rafailov, E. U.; Resan, B.; Oehler, A. E. H.; Weingarten, K. J.; Sibbett, W.; Brown, C. T. A.; Shepherd, D. P.

    2014-02-01

    In this work, we discuss mode-locking results obtained with low-loss, ion-exchanged waveguide lasers. With Yb3+-doped phosphate glass waveguide lasers, a repetition rate of up to 15.2 GHz was achieved at a wavelength of 1047 nm with an average power of 27 mW and pulse duration of 811 fs. The gap between the waveguide and the SESAM introduced negative group velocity dispersion via the Gires Tournois Interferometer (GTI) effect which allowed the soliton mode-locking of the device. A novel quantum dot SESAM was used to mode-lock Er3+, Yb3+-doped phosphate glass waveguide lasers around 1500 nm. Picosecond pulses were achieved at a maximum repetition rate of 6.8 GHz and an average output power of 30 mW. The repetition rate was tuned by more than 1 MHz by varying the pump power.

  17. The neurobiology of repetitive behavior : of mice…

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langen, Marieke; Kas, Martien J H; Staal, Wouter G; van Engeland, Herman; Durston, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    Repetitive and stereotyped behavior is a prominent element of both animal and human behavior. Similar behavior is seen across species, in diverse neuropsychiatric disorders and in key phases of typical development. This raises the question whether these similar classes of behavior are caused by simi

  18. Large-scale detection of repetitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, W F

    2014-05-28

    Combinatorics on words began more than a century ago with a demonstration that an infinitely long string with no repetitions could be constructed on an alphabet of only three letters. Computing all the repetitions (such as ∙∙∙TTT ∙∙∙ or ∙∙∙ CGACGA ∙∙∙ ) in a given string x of length n is one of the oldest and most important problems of computational stringology, requiring time in the worst case. About a dozen years ago, it was discovered that repetitions can be computed as a by-product of the Θ(n)-time computation of all the maximal periodicities or runs in x. However, even though the computation is linear, it is also brute force: global data structures, such as the suffix array, the longest common prefix array and the Lempel-Ziv factorization, need to be computed in a preprocessing phase. Furthermore, all of this effort is required despite the fact that the expected number of runs in a string is generally a small fraction of the string length. In this paper, I explore the possibility that repetitions (perhaps also other regularities in strings) can be computed in a manner commensurate with the size of the output.

  19. Verbal Repetitions and Echolalia in Alzheimer's Discourse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Cruz, Fernanda Miranda

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on an investigation of echolalic repetition in Alzheimer's disease (AD). A qualitative analysis of data from spontaneous conversations with MHI, a woman with AD, is presented. The data come from the DALI Corpus, a corpus of spontaneous conversations involving subjects with AD. This study argues that echolalic effects can be…

  20. Neurobehavioural Correlates of Abnormal Repetitive Behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Ford

    1991-01-01

    Full Text Available Conditions in which echolalia and echopraxia occur are reviewed, followed by an attempt to elicit possible mechanisms of these phenomena. A brief description of stereotypical and perseverative behaviour and obsessional phenomena is given. It is suggested that abnormal repetitive behaviour may occur partly as a result of central dopaminergic dysfunction.

  1. Reducing Repetitive Speech: Effects of Strategy Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dipipi, Caroline M.; Jitendra, Asha K.; Miller, Judith A.

    2001-01-01

    This article describes an intervention with an 18-year-old young woman with mild mental retardation and a seizure disorder, which focused on her repetitive echolalic verbalizations. The intervention included time delay, differential reinforcement of other behaviors, and self-monitoring. Overall, the intervention was successful in facilitating…

  2. Verbal Repetitions and Echolalia in Alzheimer's Discourse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Cruz, Fernanda Miranda

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on an investigation of echolalic repetition in Alzheimer's disease (AD). A qualitative analysis of data from spontaneous conversations with MHI, a woman with AD, is presented. The data come from the DALI Corpus, a corpus of spontaneous conversations involving subjects with AD. This study argues that echolalic effects can be…

  3. Floods and tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn, Mark

    2006-06-01

    Floods and tsunamis cause few severe injuries, but those injuries can overwhelm local areas, depending on the magnitude of the disaster. Most injuries are extremity fractures, lacerations, and sprains. Because of the mechanism of soft tissue and bone injuries, infection is a significant risk. Aspiration pneumonias are also associated with tsunamis. Appropriate precautionary interventions prevent communicable dis-ease outbreaks. Psychosocial health issues must be considered.

  4. Integrated water resource and flood risk management: comparing the US and the EU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serra-Llobet Anna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Floods are the most important natural hazard in the EU and US, causing 700 deaths and at least €25 billion in insured economic losses in Europe since 1998, and causing nearly $10 billion annual average flood losses in the US. Flood control is commonly viewed as a matter of building dykes, dams, and other structures, but effective flood management within the perspective of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM must address multiple components of the flood risk management cycle (Figure 1. We systematically reviewed governance structures, guidance documents, and mapping products in both the EU and US, drawing particular examples from California and Spain, to determine how the US and the EU approach the flood risk management within different IWRM initiatives, which strategies and agencies are involved in the different phases –characterization (flood hazard and risk assessment and mapping, mitigation (prevention and protection, emergency (preparation and response, and (short and long term recovery-, and how these agencies relate to each other. The regions have strong similarities in economy and environmental values, but have evolved very different approaches to cope with floods. The US and EU have similar organizational structures, but very different legislative frameworks. In the US overarching policy and large scale infrastructure funding have traditionally resided at the federal level with state and local agencies exercising strong land use control. EU member states have arguably advanced ahead of the US in some significant ways since adoption of the EU Floods Directive in 2007, a more top-down approach. Among the Directive’s many components, one important requirement is submission of flood risk management plans (by the end of 2015, which, for first time, take into account all phases of flood management. This umbrella strategy to cope with floods is creating a more consistent and integrated flood risk management approach in Europe. In

  5. Atmospheric Rivers, Floods, and Flash Floods in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelly, Klint T.

    Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long (>2000 km), narrow (<1000 km) corridors of enhanced vertically integrated water vapor (IWV) and enhanced IWV transport (IVT). The landfall of ARs along the U.S. West Coast have been linked to extreme precipitation and flooding/flash flooding in regions of complex topography. The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between a 10 water-year (2005-2014) climatology of floods, flash floods, and landfalling ARs. The ARs in this study are defined using IVT following the Rutz et al. (2013) methodology, whereas floods and flash floods are identified by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Events Database. The results of this study indicate that landfalling ARs are present on a majority of days that there are floods in northern California. Landfalling ARs are predominantly present on a majority of days that there are flash flood reports during the cold-season (November-March); however, the North American monsoon is present on days that there are flash flood reports during the warm-season (April-October). Two exemplary case studies are provided to illustrate the hydrologic impact of landfalling ARs. The first case study illustrated a flood event that occurred in associated with three landfalling ARs that produced 800 mm in regions over the Russian River watershed in northern California and the second case study illustrated a flash flood event that occurred in association with a landfalling AR that produced ˜225 mm of precipitation in regions over the Santa Ynez xii watershed in which produced a flash flood over the southern portions of Santa Barbara County in southern California.

  6. Modelling the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc; Salamon, Peter; Thielen, Jutta; Bianchi, Alessandra; Dottori, Francesco; Burek, Peter

    2016-06-01

    River floods generate a large share of the socio-economic impact of weather-driven hazards worldwide. Accurate assessment of their impact is a key priority for governments, international organization, reinsurance companies and emergency responders. Yet, available databases of flood losses over large domains are often affected by gaps and inconsistencies in reported figures. In this work, a framework to reconstruct the economic damage and population affected by river floods at continental scale is applied. Pan-European river flow simulations are coupled with a high-resolution impact assessment framework based on 2-D inundation modelling. Two complementary methods are compared in their ability to estimate the climatological average flood impact and the impact of each flood event in Europe between 1990 and 2013. The event-based method reveals key features, such as the ability to include changes in time of all three components of risk, namely hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Furthermore, it skilfully reproduces the socio-economic impact of major flood events in the past two decades, including the severe flooding hitting central Europe in June 2013. On the other hand, the integral method is capable of reproducing the average flood losses which occurred in Europe between 1998 and 2009. Strengths and limitations of the proposed model are discussed to stress the large potential for filling in the gaps of current datasets of flood impact.

  7. Use Of Risk Analysis Fremeworks In Urban Flood Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Madsen, Henrik

    these results. However, they have also highlighted a shortcoming of the design practice that jeopardized the entire design process: the floods occur the same places every time, meaning that the losses are not equally distributed. Other key players in society are now starting to react upon this knowledge...

  8. Integrated Direct and Indirect Flood Risk Modeling: Development and Sensitivity Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koks, E E; Bočkarjova, M; de Moel, H; Aerts, J C J H

    2015-05-01

    In this article, we propose an integrated direct and indirect flood risk model for small- and large-scale flood events, allowing for dynamic modeling of total economic losses from a flood event to a full economic recovery. A novel approach is taken that translates direct losses of both capital and labor into production losses using the Cobb-Douglas production function, aiming at improved consistency in loss accounting. The recovery of the economy is modeled using a hybrid input-output model and applied to the port region of Rotterdam, using six different flood events (1/10 up to 1/10,000). This procedure allows gaining a better insight regarding the consequences of both high- and low-probability floods. The results show that in terms of expected annual damage, direct losses remain more substantial relative to the indirect losses (approximately 50% larger), but for low-probability events the indirect losses outweigh the direct losses. Furthermore, we explored parameter uncertainty using a global sensitivity analysis, and varied critical assumptions in the modeling framework related to, among others, flood duration and labor recovery, using a scenario approach. Our findings have two important implications for disaster modelers and practitioners. First, high-probability events are qualitatively different from low-probability events in terms of the scale of damages and full recovery period. Second, there are substantial differences in parameter influence between high-probability and low-probability flood modeling. These findings suggest that a detailed approach is required when assessing the flood risk for a specific region. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  10. Resistive Wall Heating of the Undulator in High Repetition Rate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qiang, J; Corlett, J; Emma, P; Wu, J

    2012-05-20

    In next generation high repetition rate FELs, beam energy loss due to resistive wall wakefields will produce significant amount of heat. The heat load for a superconducting undulator (operating at low temperature), must be removed and will be expensive to remove. In this paper, we study this effect in an undulator proposed for a Next Generation Light Source (NGLS) at LBNL. We benchmark our calculations with measurements at the LCLS and carry out detailed parameter studies using beam from a start-to-end simulation. Our preliminarym results suggest that the heat load in the undulator is about 2 W/m or lower with an aperture size of 6 mm for nominal NGLS preliminary design parameters.

  11. Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

    2017-01-01

    The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience. PMID:28148952

  12. Assessing Current and Future Freshwater Flood Risk from North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones via Insurance Claims

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Villarini, Gabriele; Montgomery, Marilyn; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Goska, Radoslaw

    2017-02-01

    The most recent decades have witnessed record breaking losses associated with U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs). Flood-related damages represent a large portion of these losses, and although storm surge is typically the main focus in the media and of warnings, much of the TC flood losses are instead freshwater-driven, often extending far inland from the landfall locations. Despite this actuality, knowledge of TC freshwater flood risk is still limited. Here we provide for the first time a comprehensive assessment of the TC freshwater flood risk from the full set of all significant flood events associated with U.S. landfalling TCs from 2001 to 2014. We find that the areas impacted by freshwater flooding are nearly equally divided between coastal and inland areas. We determine the statistical relationship between physical hazard and residential economic impact at a community level for the entire country. These results allow us to assess the potential future changes in TC freshwater flood risk due to changing climate pattern and urbanization in a more heavily populated U.S. Findings have important implications for flood risk management, insurance and resilience.

  13. Submerged area of typical torrential flood and debris-flow disasters in Mengzong Gully, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai-Di Huo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The torrential flooding and debris flow disasters associated with global climate change pose not only serious threat to individual lives and property, but also impact economic development. Accurately simulating flood scenarios can help to reduce the losses caused by torrential flooding and debris flow by making early warning, evacuation planning, and risk analysis possible. In this study, HEC-RAS software and HEC-GeoRAS module were employed in GIS (geographic information system to simulate the flood overtopping in the Mengzong Gully of Batang River in flood scenarios occurring once in 20, 50, and 100 years, respectively. The simulated floods provided valuable information including scope and depth of submersion via 2D visualization.

  14. Fault tree analysis for urban flooding

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2008-01-01

    Traditional methods to evaluate flood risk mostly focus on storm events as the main cause of flooding. Fault tree analysis is a technique that is able to model all potential causes of flooding and to quantify both the overall probability of flooding and the contributions of all causes of flooding to

  15. Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

    2016-04-01

    Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

  16. Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Englhardt, Johanna; Boekhorst, Ellen; Ward, Philip; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Flood risk assessment of potential casualties in a global scale. M. Andres Diaz-Loaiza (1), Johanna Englhardt (1), Ellen de Boekhorst (1), Philip J. Ward (1) and Jeroen Aerts (1) (1) Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands. andres.diazloaiza@vu.nl Floods are one of the most dangerous natural disasters for humanity, affecting many people every year. Quantitative risk models on a global scale are nowadays available tools for institutions and actors in charge of risk management in order to plan possible mitigation measures in case of flood risk events. Many of these models have been focus on potential economic damage, population and GDP exposure, but the potential casualties assessment has been left aside. This is partially due to the complexity of the problem itself, in which several variables like the age of a pedestrian (drag/exposed to a flood event), or his weight and swimming experience can be decisive for the complete understanding of the problem. In the present work is presented the advances for the development of a methodology in order to include in the GLOFRIS model a new indicator in case of flood risk events. Preliminary analysis relating the GDP with the potential casualties shows that undeveloped countries have more susceptibility to loss of life in case of flood events. This because the GDP indicator evidences as well the protection measures available in a country.

  17. Isla Hispaniola: A trans-boundary flood risk mitigation plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandimarte, Luigia; Brath, Armando; Castellarin, Attilio; Baldassarre, Giuliano Di

    It is sadly known that over the past decades Isla Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) has been exposed to the devastating passage of several hurricanes and tropical storms. Territories that are economically weak and extremely poor in terms of natural resources have been shaken by severe flood events that caused the loss of thousands of human lives, displacement of people and damage to the environment. On May 24th 2004, the flooding of the trans-boundary river Soliette killed over 1000 Haitian and Dominican people, wiping out villages and leaving behind desolation and poverty. After this catastrophic flood event, the General Direction for Development and Cooperation of the Italian Department of Foreign Affairs funded through the Istituto Italo-Latino Americano (IILA, www.iila.org) an international cooperation initiative (ICI), coordinated and directed by the University of Bologna. The ICI involved Haitian and Dominican institutions and was twofold: (a) institutional capacity building on flood risk management and mitigation measures and policies; (b) hydrological and hydraulic analysis of the May 2004 flood event aimed at formulating a suitable and affordable flood risk mitigation plan, consisting of structural and non-structural measures.

  18. Using practical and social information to influence flood adaptation behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allaire, Maura C.

    2016-08-01

    As the prospect for more frequent and severe extreme weather events gains scientific support, many nations are evaluating mitigation and adaptation options. Insurance and home retrofits could reduce household welfare losses due to flood events. Yet even after disasters, households often fail to take risk mitigation actions. This paper presents the first randomized field experiment that tests the effect of information provision on household uptake of flood insurance and home retrofits. A sample of 364 flood-prone households in Bangkok was randomly split into treatment and control groups. The treatment group received practical details on home retrofits and flood insurance as well as social information regarding the insurance purchase decisions of peers. Results indicate that the information intervention increased insurance purchases by about five percentage points, while no effect was detected for home retrofits. This effect is nearly equal to the increase in uptake that the national insurance program in Thailand has achieved through all other means since its establishment in 2012. If scaled up to include all uninsured, flood-prone households in Bangkok, nearly 70,000 additional households could be insured. The results suggest that well-designed information interventions could increase uptake of flood insurance, without additional premium subsidies or mandates.

  19. Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

    2017-04-01

    Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

  20. Establishment and Practical Application of Flood Warning Stage in Taiwan's River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Sheng-Hsueh; Chia Yeh, Keh-

    2017-04-01

    In the face of extreme flood events or the possible impact of climate change, non-engineering disaster prevention and early warning work is particularly important. Taiwan is an island topography with more than 3,900 meters of high mountains. The length of the river is less than 100 kilometers. Most of the watershed catchment time is less than 24 hours, which belongs to the river with steep slope and rapid flood. Every year in summer and autumn, several typhoon events invade Taiwan. Typhoons often result in rainfall events in excess of 100 mm/hr or 250 mm/3hr. In the face of Taiwan's terrain and extreme rainfall events, flooding is difficult to avoid. Therefore, most of the river has embankment protection, so that people do not have to face every year flooding caused by economic and life and property losses. However, the river embankment protection is limited. With the increase of the hydrological data, the design criteria for the embankment protection standards in the past was 100 year of flood return period and is now gradually reduced to 25 or 50 year of flood return period. The river authorities are not easy to rise the existing embankment height. The safety of the river embankment in Taiwan is determined by the establishment of the flood warning stage to cope with the possible increase in annual floods and the impact of extreme hydrological events. The flood warning stage is equal to the flood control elevation minus the flood rise rate multiply by the flood early warning time. The control elevation can be the top of the embankment, the design flood level of the river, the embankment gap of the river section, the height of the bridge beam bottom, etc. The flood rise rate is consider the factors such as hydrological stochastic and uncertain rainfall and the effect of flood discharge operation on the flood in the watershed catchment area. The maximum value of the water level difference between the two hours or five hours before the peak value of the analysis

  1. Is flow velocity a significant parameter in flood damage modelling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Kreibich

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Flow velocity is generally presumed to influence flood damage. However, this influence is hardly quantified and virtually no damage models take it into account. Therefore, the influences of flow velocity, water depth and combinations of these two impact parameters on various types of flood damage were investigated in five communities affected by the Elbe catchment flood in Germany in 2002. 2-D hydraulic models with high to medium spatial resolutions were used to calculate the impact parameters at the sites in which damage occurred. A significant influence of flow velocity on structural damage, particularly on roads, could be shown in contrast to a minor influence on monetary losses and business interruption. Forecasts of structural damage to road infrastructure should be based on flow velocity alone. The energy head is suggested as a suitable flood impact parameter for reliable forecasting of structural damage to residential buildings above a critical impact level of 2 m of energy head or water depth. However, general consideration of flow velocity in flood damage modelling, particularly for estimating monetary loss, cannot be recommended.

  2. Flash floods, hydro-geomorphic response and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Borga, Marco; Gourley, Jonathan; Hürlimann, Marcel; Zappa, Massimilano; Gallart, Francesc

    2016-10-01

    Each year, natural disasters are responsible for fatalities and economic losses worldwide with 101 billion USD in economic losses and 7000 fatalities reported for 2014 (SwissRE, 2015). Even if earthquakes are responsible for most of these fatalities, flash floods and landslides are recognized as a significant source of threat to human lives (SwissRE, 2015). Jonkman (2005), in a global assessment of flood-related casualties, showed that flash floods lead to the highest mortality (number of fatalities divided by the number of affected people). They are also often associated with shallow landslides and geomorphic processes that can increase threat to human lives. Analysis of a global data set of fatalities from non-seismically triggered landslides (Petley, 2012) shows that 2620 fatal landslides were recorded worldwide in the period 2004-2010, causing a total of 32,322 recorded fatalities. In addition, heavy precipitation events, at the origin of flash floods and shallow landsliding are expected to increase in the future (e.g. Scoccimarro et al., 2016 for a recent study in Europe). Progress in flash floods and landslides understanding, forecasting and warning is therefore still needed to disentangle the complex interactions between hazards, exposure and vulnerability and to increase resilience (Borga et al., 2014).

  3. Evaluating coping capacity and benefits of flood-prone land use to support Integrated Flood Management in developing countries: community assessment in Candaba, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Ohara, M.

    2015-12-01

    Flood risk reduction strategies such as zoning and land use restrictions reduce exposure by "keeping people away from floods". However, in many developing countries, benefits provided by floods and use of flood-prone land are essential, particularly where livelihoods are tied to natural hydrologic cycles. We propose integrating coping capacity and benefits of floodplain use into risk assessments in developing countries. We assess flood damages and identify local strategies for living with and benefitting from floods in Candaba, Philippines. We use a physically-based rainfall-runoff model and remotely-sensed data to characterize flooding. At the village scale, we evaluate potential damages to agriculture and fisheries. Through community surveys and focus groups, we identify adaptations that allow people to cope with and benefit from flooding. Seeking to integrate these adaptations into standard risk assessments, we explore valuation methods to appraise floodplain-derived benefits. We find that some communities adapt their livelihoods to seasonal inundation, for instance, by using land alternately for agriculture and wild-catch fisheries during dry and wet seasons respectively. To integrate the role of coping capacity into our assessment, we consider dynamics of seasonal land use and evaluate damages and benefits of adapted (high coping capacity) and non-adapted (low coping capacity) conditions. We find that coping strategies minimize flood losses while allowing valuable flood-related benefit capture. We conclude that neglecting coping capacity and benefits of floodplain use can lead to poor characterization of risk, which may result in misguided management. Acknowledging local capacity to live with and benefit from floods may support flood risk management, sustainable livelihoods and ecosystem services in developing countries.

  4. Flood Risk and Flood hazard maps - Visualisation of hydrological risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spachinger, Karl; Dorner, Wolfgang; Metzka, Rudolf [University of Applied Sciences Deggendorf (Germany); Serrhini, Kamal [Universite de Technologie de Compiegne, Genie des Systemes Urbains, France, and Universite Francois Rabelais, Unite Mixte de Recherche, Tours (France); Fuchs, Sven [Institute of Mountain Risk Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna (Austria)], E-mail: karl.spachinger@fhd.edu

    2008-11-01

    Hydrological models are an important basis of flood forecasting and early warning systems. They provide significant data on hydrological risks. In combination with other modelling techniques, such as hydrodynamic models, they can be used to assess the extent and impact of hydrological events. The new European Flood Directive forces all member states to evaluate flood risk on a catchment scale, to compile maps of flood hazard and flood risk for prone areas, and to inform on a local level about these risks. Flood hazard and flood risk maps are important tools to communicate flood risk to different target groups. They provide compiled information to relevant public bodies such as water management authorities, municipalities, or civil protection agencies, but also to the broader public. For almost each section of a river basin, run-off and water levels can be defined based on the likelihood of annual recurrence, using a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, supplemented by an analysis of historical records and mappings. In combination with data related to the vulnerability of a region risk maps can be derived. The project RISKCATCH addressed these issues of hydrological risk and vulnerability assessment focusing on the flood risk management process. Flood hazard maps and flood risk maps were compiled for Austrian and German test sites taking into account existing national and international guidelines. These maps were evaluated by eye-tracking using experimental graphic semiology. Sets of small-scale as well as large-scale risk maps were presented to test persons in order to (1) study reading behaviour as well as understanding and (2) deduce the most attractive components that are essential for target-oriented risk communication. A cognitive survey asking for negative and positive aspects and complexity of each single map complemented the experimental graphic semiology. The results indicate how risk maps can be improved to fit the needs of different user

  5. 7 CFR 760.203 - Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... to, flood, freeze, hurricane, hail, tidal surge, volcanic eruption, and wildfire on non-Federal land... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Eligible losses, adverse weather, and other loss conditions. 760.203 Section 760.203 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued)...

  6. Insurance against climate change and flood risk: Insurability and decision processes of insurers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Hung, Jia-Yi

    2016-04-01

    1. Background Major portions of the Asia-Pacific region is facing escalating exposure and vulnerability to climate change and flood-related extremes. This highlights an arduous challenge for public agencies to improve existing risk management strategies. Conventionally, governmental funding was majorly responsible and accountable for disaster loss compensation in the developing countries in Asia, such as Taiwan. This is often criticized as an ineffective and inefficient measure of dealing with flood risk. Flood insurance is one option within the toolkit of risk-sharing arrangement and adaptation strategy to flood risk. However, there are numerous potential barriers for insurance companies to cover flood damage, which would cause the flood risk is regarded as uninsurable. This study thus aims to examine attitudes within the insurers about the viability of flood insurance, the decision-making processes of pricing flood insurance and their determinants, as well as to examine potential solutions to encourage flood insurance. 2. Methods and data Using expected-utility theory, an insurance agent-based decision-making model was developed to examine the insurers' attitudes towards the insurability of flood risk, and to scrutinize the factors that influence their decisions on flood insurance premium-setting. This model particularly focuses on how insurers price insurance when they face either uncertainty or ambiguity about the probability and loss of a particular flood event occurring. This study considers the factors that are expected to affect insures' decisions on underwriting and pricing insurance are their risk perception, attitudes towards flood insurance, governmental measures (e.g., land-use planning, building codes, risk communication), expected probabilities and losses of devastating flooding events, as well as insurance companies' attributes. To elicit insurers' utilities about premium-setting for insurance coverage, the 'certainty equivalent,' 'probability

  7. Flood resilience urban territories. Flood resilience urban territories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beraud, Hélène; Barroca, Bruno; Hubert, Gilles

    2010-05-01

    The flood's impact during the last twenty years on French territory reveals our lack of preparation towards large-extended floods which might cause the stopping of companies' activity, services, or lead to housing unavailability during several months. New Orleans' case has to exemplify us: four years after the disaster, the city still couldn't get back its dynamism. In France, more than 300 towns are flood-exposed. While these towns are the mainspring of territory's development, it is likely that the majority of them couldn't get up quickly after a large-extended flood. Therefore, to understand and improve the urban territory's resilience facing floods is a real stake for territory's development. Urban technical networks supply, unify and irrigate all urban territories' constituents. Characterizing their flood resilience can be interesting to understand better urban resilience. In this context, waste management during and after floods is completely crucial. During a flood, the waste management network can become dysfunctional (roads cut, waste storage installations or waste treatment flooded). How can the mayor respect his obligation to guarantee salubrity and security in his city? In post flood the question is even more problematic. The waste management network presents a real stake for territory's restart. After a flood, building materials, lopped-of branches, furniture, business stocks, farm stocks, mud, rubbles, animal cadavers are wet, mixed, even polluted by hydrocarbons or toxic substances. The waste's volume can be significant. Sanitary and environmental risks can be crucial. In view of this situation, waste's management in post crisis period raises a real problem. What to make of this waste? How to collect it? Where to stock it? How to process it? Who is responsible? Answering these questions is all the more strategic since this waste is the mark of disaster. Thus, cleaning will be the first population's and local actor's reflex in order to forget the

  8. Application of flood index in monitoring Flood-plain ecosystems (by the example of the Middle Ob flood-plain)

    OpenAIRE

    Bolotnov, V. P.

    2007-01-01

    The concept of regional hydroecological monitoring has been developed for the flood-plain of the Middle Ob. Its object is to control the state of flood-plain ecosystem productivity for organization of scientific, regional-adopted and ecologically regulated nature management. For this purpose hydroecological zoning of flood-plain territory performed, the most representative stations of water-gauge observations for each flood-plain zone organized, the scheme of flood-plain flooding was prepared...

  9. Flood and Waterlogging Disaster Damage Evaluation in Middle-Lower Yangtze Rive r by 3S technology%基于3S技术的长江中下游洪涝灾情评估研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAN; Xiao-guo

    2001-01-01

    The evaluation method, model and process for the flood and waterlogging disaster condition by GIS,RS and GPS technology and the method for setting up d isaster condition database, dyke database and historical disaster damage databas e are presented. An index of flood damage degree(FDD) used to evaluate the relat ive degree of disaster loss and divide flood and waterlogging area is suggested . The value of flood damage degree can be calculated as follows :taking the vari ous disaster losses of sample area in a base year as standard value and computin g the ratios of various disaster loss values in different areas and years to th e standard flo od disaster loss values, then summing up the weighted ratios. The computed resul t s are the value of flood damage degree in the every year. The macroscopic flood disaster distribution can be evaluated by the values of flood loss degree.

  10. Stimulating household flood risk mitigation investments through insurance and subsidies: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Botzen, Wouter; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    In the period 1998-2009, floods triggered roughly 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard in Europe. Climate change and socio/economic trends are expected to further aggrevate floods losses in many regions. Research shows that flood risk can be significantly reduced if households install protective measures, and that the implementation of such measures can be stimulated through flood insurance schemes and subsidies. However, the effectiveness of such incentives to stimulate implementation of loss-reducing measures greatly depends on the decision process of individuals and is hardly studied. In our study, we developed an Agent-Based Model that integrates flood damage models, insurance mechanisms, subsidies, and household behaviour models to assess the effectiveness of different economic tools on stimulating households to invest in loss-reducing measures. Since the effectiveness depends on the decision making process of individuals, the study compares different household decision models ranging from standard economic models, to economic models for decision making under risk, to more complex decision models integrating economic models and risk perceptions, opinion dynamics, and the influence of flood experience. The results show the effectiveness of incentives to stimulate investment in loss-reducing measures for different household behavior types, while assuming climate change scenarios. It shows how complex decision models can better reproduce observed real-world behaviour compared to traditional economic models. Furthermore, since flood events are included in the simulations, the results provide an analysis of the dynamics in insured and uninsured losses for households, the costs of reducing risk by implementing loss-reducing measures, the capacity of the insurance market, and the cost of government subsidies under different scenarios. The model has been applied to the City of Rotterdam in The Netherlands.

  11. Pan-European stochastic flood event set

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadlec, Martin; Pinto, Joaquim G.; He, Yi; Punčochář, Petr; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Manful, Desmond; Palán, Ladislav

    2017-04-01

    Impact Forecasting (IF), the model development center of Aon Benfield, has been developing a large suite of catastrophe flood models on probabilistic bases for individual countries in Europe. Such natural catastrophes do not follow national boundaries: for example, the major flood in 2016 was responsible for the Europe's largest insured loss of USD3.4bn and affected Germany, France, Belgium, Austria and parts of several other countries. Reflecting such needs, IF initiated a pan-European flood event set development which combines cross-country exposures with country based loss distributions to provide more insightful data to re/insurers. Because the observed discharge data are not available across the whole Europe in sufficient quantity and quality to permit a detailed loss evaluation purposes, a top-down approach was chosen. This approach is based on simulating precipitation from a GCM/RCM model chain followed by a calculation of discharges using rainfall-runoff modelling. IF set up this project in a close collaboration with Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) regarding the precipitation estimates and with University of East Anglia (UEA) in terms of the rainfall-runoff modelling. KIT's main objective is to provide high resolution daily historical and stochastic time series of key meteorological variables. A purely dynamical downscaling approach with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) is used to generate the historical time series, using re-analysis data as boundary conditions. The resulting time series are validated against the gridded observational dataset E-OBS, and different bias-correction methods are employed. The generation of the stochastic time series requires transfer functions between large-scale atmospheric variables and regional temperature and precipitation fields. These transfer functions are developed for the historical time series using reanalysis data as predictors and bias-corrected CCLM simulated precipitation and temperature as

  12. Robust Repetitive Controller for Fast AFM Imaging

    CERN Document Server

    Necipoglu, Serkan; Has, Yunus; Guvenc, Levent; Basdogan, Cagatay

    2012-01-01

    Currently, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) is the most preferred Scanning Probe Microscopy (SPM) method due to its numerous advantages. However, increasing the scanning speed and reducing the interaction forces between the probe's tip and the sample surface are still the two main challenges in AFM. To meet these challenges, we take advantage of the fact that the lateral movements performed during an AFM scan is a repetitive motion and propose a Repetitive Controller (RC) for the z-axis movements of the piezo-scanner. The RC utilizes the profile of the previous scan line while scanning the current line to achieve a better scan performance. The results of the scanning experiments performed with our AFM set-up show that the proposed RC significantly outperforms a conventional PI controller that is typically used for the same task. The scan error and the average tapping forces are reduced by 66% and 58%, respectively when the scan speed is increased by 7-fold.

  13. A knowledge integration approach to flood vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazzorana, Bruno; Fuchs, Sven

    2014-05-01

    Understanding, qualifying and quantifying vulnerability is an essential need for implementing effective and efficient flood risk mitigation strategies; in particular if possible synergies between different mitigation alternatives, such as active and passive measures, should be achieved. In order to combine different risk management options it is necessary to take an interdisciplinary approach to vulnerability reduction, and as a result the affected society may be willing to accept a certain degree of self-responsibility. However, due to differing mono-disciplinary approaches and regional foci undertaken until now, different aspects of vulnerability to natural hazards in general and to floods in particular remain uncovered and as a result the developed management options remain sub-optimal. Taking an even more fundamental viewpoint, the empirical vulnerability functions used in risk assessment specifically fail to capture physical principles of the damage-generating mechanisms to the build environment. The aim of this paper is to partially close this gap by discussing a balanced knowledge integration approach which can be used to resolve the multidisciplinary disorder in flood vulnerability research. Modelling techniques such as mathematical-physical modelling of the flood hazard impact to and response from the building envelope affected, and formative scenario analyses of possible consequences in terms of damage and loss are used in synergy to provide an enhanced understanding of vulnerability and to render the derived knowledge into interdisciplinary mitigation strategies. The outlined formal procedure allows for a convincing knowledge alignment of quantified, but partial, information about vulnerability as a result of the application of physical and engineering notions and valuable, but often underspecified, qualitative argumentation strings emerging from the adopted socio-economic viewpoint.

  14. Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

    2016-10-01

    The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

  15. Towards Interactive Flood Governance: changing approaches in Dutch flood policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.A. van Ast (Jacko)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ In the course of history, flooding of rivers and the sea brought misery to humanity. Low lying delta’s of large rivers like Bangladesh, New Orleans, the Nile delta or the Netherlands belong to the most vulnerable for flood disasters. Since ancient times people pondered

  16. A repetitive elements perspective in Polycomb epigenetics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina eCasa

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Repetitive elements comprise over two-thirds of the human genome. For a long time, these elements have received little attention since they were considered non functional. On the contrary, recent evidence indicates that they play central roles in genome integrity, gene expression and disease. Indeed, repeats display meiotic instability associated with disease and are located within common fragile sites, which are hotspots of chromosome rearrangements in tumors. Moreover, a variety of diseases have been associated with aberrant transcription of repetitive elements. Overall this indicates that appropriate regulation of repetitive elements’ activity is fundamental.Polycomb group (PcG proteins are epigenetic regulators that are essential for the normal development of multicellular organisms. Mammalian PcG proteins are involved in fundamental processes, such as cellular memory, cell proliferation, genomic imprinting, X-inactivation, and cancer development. PcG proteins can convey their activity through long-distance interactions also on different chromosomes. This indicates that the 3D organization of PcG proteins contributes significantly to their function. However, it is still unclear how these complex mechanisms are orchestrated and which role PcG proteins play in the multi-level organization of gene regulation. Intriguingly, the greatest proportion of Polycomb-mediated chromatin modifications is located in genomic repeats and it has been suggested that they could provide a binding platform for Polycomb proteins.Here, these lines of evidence are woven together to discuss how repetitive elements could contribute to chromatin organization in the 3D nuclear space.

  17. Emotional arousal enhances word repetition priming

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Laura A.; LaBar, Kevin S.

    2005-01-01

    Three experiments were conducted to determine if emotional content increases repetition priming magnitude. In the study phase of Experiment 1, participants rated high-arousing negative (taboo) words and neutral words for concreteness. In the test phase, they made lexical decision judgements for the studied words intermixed with novel words (half taboo, half neutral) and pseudowords. In Experiment 2, low-arousing negative (LAN) words were substituted for the taboo words, and in Experiment 3 al...

  18. The Rhythms of Echo. Variations on Repetition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa María Aradra Sánchez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a study on the echo as metric and rhetorical procedure. It makes a brief tour through some of the poetic manifestations of echo in the Spanish literary tradition, and a brief tour through the attention that metric theory has paid to this phenomenon. Then it stops at the possibilities that rhetoric offers for its analysis from the generic approach of the discursive repetition phenomena.

  19. Storage and flood routing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, R.W.; Godfrey, R.G.

    1960-01-01

    The basic equations used in flood routing are developed from the law of continuity. In each method the assumptions are discussed to enable the user to select an appropriate technique. In the stage-storage method the storage is related to the mean gage height in the reach under consideration. In the discharge-storage method the storage is determined, from weighted values of inflow and outflow discharge. In the reservoir-storage method the storage is considered as a function of outflow discharge alone. A detailed example is given for each method to illustrate that particular technique.

  20. Flood Insurance Rate Maps and Base Flood Elevations, FIRM, DFIRM, BFE - MO 2014 Springfield FEMA Base Flood Elevations (SHP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC State | GIS Inventory — This polyline layer indicates the approximate effective FEMA Base Flood Elevation (BFE) associated with the corresponding Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). Each line...

  1. Flood Insurance Rate Maps and Base Flood Elevations, FIRM, DFIRM, BFE - MO 2010 Springfield FEMA Base Flood Elevations (SHP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    NSGIC GIS Inventory (aka Ramona) — This polyline layer indicates the approximate effective FEMA Base Flood Elevations (BFE) associated with the corresponding Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA). Each...

  2. Estancia Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This vector dataset depicts the 1% annual flood boundary (otherwise known as special flood hazard area or 100 year flood boundary) for its specified area. The data...

  3. Elephant Butte Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This vector dataset depicts the 1% annual flood boundary (otherwise known as special flood hazard area or 100 year flood boundary) for its specified area. The data...

  4. Sierra County Special Flood Hazard Areas (SFHA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Earth Data Analysis Center, University of New Mexico — This vector dataset depicts the 1% annual flood boundary (otherwise known as special flood hazard area or 100 year flood boundary) for its specified area. The data...

  5. Facts and perceptions on the flood-risk evolution along the Po River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domeneghetti, Alessio; Carisi, Francesca; Castellarin, Attilio

    2014-05-01

    Has the flood risk increased in the Po river basin during the last half century? The increasing frequency with which floods damages are recorded, or reported by media, strengthen the common perception that the flood risk is dramatically increasing in Europe and other areas of the world, due to a combination of different causes, among which climate change is often described as the major factor. However, there is a growing awareness of how anthropogenic pressures, such as uncontrolled urban and industrial expansion on flood-prone areas, may strongly impact the evolution of flood-risk in a given area, increasing potential flood damages and losses. Starting from these considerations, our study aims at shedding some light on the impact and relative importance of different factors controlling the flood risk. Focusing in particular on the middle-lower portion of the River Po, we analyse the evolution of flood hazard in the last half century referring to long streamflow series for different gauging stations located along the study reach (~450 km), while the modification of anthropogenic pressure is evaluated by referring to land-use and demographic dynamics observed from 1950s. Our study proposes simplified flood-vulnerability indices to be used for large scale flood-risk assessments and, on the basis of these indices, (1) we assess the importance of the different elements contributing to the definition of flood risk and (2) represent the evolution of flood risk in time along the middle and lower portion of the River Po. The results of the study represent an important piece of information that can be particularly useful to decision-makers in the definition of large scale flood-risk mitigation strategies and development plans for the study area.

  6. Evaluation of the magnitude and frequency of floods in urban watersheds in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Jeffrey R.; Paretti, Nicholas V.

    2014-01-01

    Flooding in urban areas routinely causes severe damage to property and often results in loss of life. To investigate the effect of urbanization on the magnitude and frequency of flood peaks, a flood frequency analysis was carried out using data from urbanized streamgaging stations in Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona. Flood peaks at each station were predicted using the log-Pearson Type III distribution, fitted using the expected moments algorithm and the multiple Grubbs-Beck low outlier test. The station estimates were then compared to flood peaks estimated by rural-regression equations for Arizona, and to flood peaks adjusted for urbanization using a previously developed procedure for adjusting U.S. Geological Survey rural regression peak discharges in an urban setting. Only smaller, more common flood peaks at the 50-, 20-, 10-, and 4-percent annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs) demonstrate any increase in magnitude as a result of urbanization; the 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent AEP flood estimates are predicted without bias by the rural-regression equations. Percent imperviousness was determined not to account for the difference in estimated flood peaks between stations, either when adjusting the rural-regression equations or when deriving urban-regression equations to predict flood peaks directly from basin characteristics. Comparison with urban adjustment equations indicates that flood peaks are systematically overestimated if the rural-regression-estimated flood peaks are adjusted upward to account for urbanization. At nearly every streamgaging station in the analysis, adjusted rural-regression estimates were greater than the estimates derived using station data. One likely reason for the lack of increase in flood peaks with urbanization is the presence of significant stormwater retention and detention structures within the watershed used in the study.

  7. The Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iceland, Charles

    2015-04-01

    As population growth and economic growth take place, and as climate change accelerates, many regions across the globe are finding themselves increasingly vulnerable to flooding. A recent OECD study of the exposure of the world's large port cities to coastal flooding found that 40 million people were exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event in 2005, and the total value of exposed assets was about US 3,000 billion, or 5% of global GDP. By the 2070s, those numbers were estimated to increase to 150 million people and US 35,000 billion, or roughly 9% of projected global GDP. Impoverished people in developing countries are particularly at risk because they often live in flood-prone areas and lack the resources to respond. WRI and its Dutch partners - Deltares, IVM-VU University Amsterdam, Utrecht University, and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - are in the initial stages of developing a robust set of river flood and coastal storm surge risk measures that show the extent of flooding under a variety of scenarios (both current and future), together with the projected human and economic impacts of these flood scenarios. These flood risk data and information will be accessible via an online, easy-to-use Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer. We will also investigate the viability, benefits, and costs of a wide array of flood risk reduction measures that could be implemented in a variety of geographic and socio-economic settings. Together, the activities we propose have the potential for saving hundreds of thousands of lives and strengthening the resiliency and security of many millions more, especially those who are most vulnerable. Mr. Iceland will present Version 1.0 of the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer and provide a preview of additional elements of the Analyzer to be released in the coming years.

  8. Repetitive behaviour in autism: Imaging pathways and trajectories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langen, M.J.G.

    2009-01-01

    Repetitive behaviour in autism: Imaging pathways and trajectories Repetitive and rigid behaviour is one of the core symptoms of autism, a severe and lifelong child psychiatric disorder. Although repetitive behaviour symptoms often form a significant impairment for affected individuals, systematic st

  9. Neural Correlates of Restricted, Repetitive Behaviors in Autism Spectrum Disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Restrictive Repetitive Behaviors in Autism Spectrum Disorder . Authors: T.Q.Nguyen, B...Manoach. Functional Connectivity of the Dorsal Anterior Cingulate Cortex Predicts Restrictive Repetitive Behaviors in Autism Spectrum Disorder We...Introduction: Although restricted , repetitive behaviors (RRBs) are a highly disabling core feature of Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASDs), they

  10. Lingual Kinematics during Rapid Syllable Repetition in Parkinson's Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Min Ney; Murdoch, Bruce E.; Whelan, Brooke-Mai

    2012-01-01

    Background: Rapid syllable repetition tasks are commonly used in the assessment of motor speech disorders. However, little is known about the articulatory kinematics during rapid syllable repetition in individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD). Aims: To investigate and compare lingual kinematics during rapid syllable repetition in dysarthric…

  11. Repetitive Elements in Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae Transcriptional Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cattani, Amanda Malvessi; Siqueira, Franciele Maboni; Guedes, Rafael Lucas Muniz; Schrank, Irene Silveira

    2016-01-01

    Transcriptional regulation, a multiple-step process, is still poorly understood in the important pig pathogen Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae. Basic motifs like promoters and terminators have already been described, but no other cis-regulatory elements have been found. DNA repeat sequences have been shown to be an interesting potential source of cis-regulatory elements. In this work, a genome-wide search for tandem and palindromic repetitive elements was performed in the intergenic regions of all coding sequences from M. hyopneumoniae strain 7448. Computational analysis demonstrated the presence of 144 tandem repeats and 1,171 palindromic elements. The DNA repeat sequences were distributed within the 5’ upstream regions of 86% of transcriptional units of M. hyopneumoniae strain 7448. Comparative analysis between distinct repetitive sequences found in related mycoplasma genomes demonstrated different percentages of conservation among pathogenic and nonpathogenic strains. qPCR assays revealed differential expression among genes showing variable numbers of repetitive elements. In addition, repeats found in 206 genes already described to be differentially regulated under different culture conditions of M. hyopneumoniae strain 232 showed almost 80% conservation in relation to M. hyopneumoniae strain 7448 repeats. Altogether, these findings suggest a potential regulatory role of tandem and palindromic DNA repeats in the M. hyopneumoniae transcriptional profile. PMID:28005945

  12. Modeling repetitive motions using structured light.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yi; Aliaga, Daniel G

    2010-01-01

    Obtaining models of dynamic 3D objects is an important part of content generation for computer graphics. Numerous methods have been extended from static scenarios to model dynamic scenes. If the states or poses of the dynamic object repeat often during a sequence (but not necessarily periodically), we call such a repetitive motion. There are many objects, such as toys, machines, and humans, undergoing repetitive motions. Our key observation is that when a motion-state repeats, we can sample the scene under the same motion state again but using a different set of parameters; thus, providing more information of each motion state. This enables robustly acquiring dense 3D information difficult for objects with repetitive motions using only simple hardware. After the motion sequence, we group temporally disjoint observations of the same motion state together and produce a smooth space-time reconstruction of the scene. Effectively, the dynamic scene modeling problem is converted to a series of static scene reconstructions, which are easier to tackle. The varying sampling parameters can be, for example, structured-light patterns, illumination directions, and viewpoints resulting in different modeling techniques. Based on this observation, we present an image-based motion-state framework and demonstrate our paradigm using either a synchronized or an unsynchronized structured-light acquisition method.

  13. Repetitive element hypermethylation in multiple sclerosis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neven, K Y; Piola, M; Angelici, L; Cortini, F; Fenoglio, C; Galimberti, D; Pesatori, A C; Scarpini, E; Bollati, V

    2016-06-18

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex disorder of the central nervous system whose cause is currently unknown. Evidence is increasing that DNA methylation alterations could be involved in inflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases and could contribute to MS pathogenesis. Repetitive elements Alu, LINE-1 and SAT-α, are widely known as estimators of global DNA methylation. We investigated Alu, LINE-1 and SAT-α methylation levels to evaluate their difference in a case-control setup and their role as a marker of disability. We obtained blood samples from 51 MS patients and 137 healthy volunteers matched by gender, age and smoking. Methylation was assessed using bisulfite-PCR-pyrosequencing. For all participants, medical history, physical and neurological examinations and screening laboratory tests were collected. All repetitive elements were hypermethylated in MS patients compared to healthy controls. A lower Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score was associated with a lower levels of LINE-1 methylation for 'EDSS = 1.0' and '1.5 ≤ EDSS ≤ 2.5' compared to an EDSS higher than 3, while Alu was associated with a higher level of methylation in these groups: 'EDSS = 1.0' and '1.5 ≤ EDSS ≤ 2.5'. MS patients exhibit an hypermethylation in repetitive elements compared to healthy controls. Alu and LINE-1 were associated with degree of EDSS score. Forthcoming studies focusing on epigenetics and the multifactorial pathogenetic mechanism of MS could elucidate these links further.

  14. FRB repetition and non-Poissonian statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Connor, Liam; Oppermann, Niels

    2016-01-01

    We discuss some of the claims that have been made regarding the statistics of fast radio bursts (FRBs). In an earlier paper \\citep{2015arXiv150505535C} we conjectured that flicker noise associated with FRB repetition could show up in non-cataclysmic neutron star emission models, like supergiant pulses. We show how the current limits of repetition would be significantly weakened if their repeat rate really were non-Poissonian and had a pink or red spectrum. Repetition and its statistics have implications for observing strategy, generally favouring shallow wide-field surveys, since in the non-repeating scenario survey depth is unimportant. We also discuss the statistics of the apparent latitudinal dependence of FRBs, and offer a simple method for calculating the significance of this effect. We provide a generalized Bayesian framework for addressing this problem, which allows for direct model comparison. It is shown how the evidence for a steep latitudinal gradient of the FRB rate is less strong than initially s...

  15. Flood Risk, Flood Mitigation, and Location Choice: Evaluating the National Flood Insurance Program's Community Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Qin; Davlasheridze, Meri

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is expected to worsen the negative effects of natural disasters like floods. The negative impacts, however, can be mitigated by individuals' adjustments through migration and relocation behaviors. Previous literature has identified flood risk as one significant driver in relocation decisions, but no prior study examines the effect of the National Flood Insurance Program's voluntary program-the Community Rating System (CRS)-on residential location choice. This article fills this gap and tests the hypothesis that flood risk and the CRS-creditable flood control activities affect residential location choices. We employ a two-stage sorting model to empirically estimate the effects. In the first stage, individuals' risk perception and preference heterogeneity for the CRS activities are considered, while mean effects of flood risk and the CRS activities are estimated in the second stage. We then estimate heterogeneous marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for the CRS activities by category. Results show that age, ethnicity and race, educational attainment, and prior exposure to risk explain risk perception. We find significant values for the CRS-creditable mitigation activities, which provides empirical evidence for the benefits associated with the program. The marginal WTP for an additional credit point earned for public information activities, including hazard disclosure, is found to be the highest. Results also suggest that water amenities dominate flood risk. Thus, high amenity values may increase exposure to flood risk, and flood mitigation projects should be strategized in coastal regions accordingly.

  16. Water NOT wanted - Coastal Floods and Flooding Protection in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    2016-01-01

    vulnerability towards coastal flooding, the country has experienced severe storm surges throughout history, and hitherto safe areas will become increasingly at risk this century as the climate changes. Historically a seafarers’ nation, Denmark has always been connected with the sea. From medieval time ports...... acceptance of floods has decreased from a “this is a natural consequence of living by the sea” to an explicit: Water Not Wanted! This paper provides a brief overview of floods and flooding protection issues in Denmark (Ch. 2 & Ch. 3), the current legislation (Ch. 4), and discusses challenges in relation...... to climate change adaptation, risk reduction, and to potential ways of rethinking flooding protection in strategies that also incorporate other uses (Ch. 5)....

  17. The use of a flood index to characterise flooding in the north-eastern region of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhattacharya B.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding in the Haor region in the north-east of Bangladesh is presented in this paper. A haor is a saucershaped depression, which is used during the dry period (Dec to mid-May for agriculture and as a fishery during the wet period (Jun-Nov. Pre-monsoon flooding till mid-May causes agricultural loss. The area is bordering India, and is fed by some flashy Indian catchments. The area is drained mainly by the Surma-Kushiyara river system. The terrain generally is flat and the flashy characteristics die out within a short distance from the border. Limited studies on the region, particularly with the help of numerical models, have been carried out in the past. Therefore, an objective of the current research was to set up numerical models capable of reasonably emulating the physical system. Such models could, for example, associate different gauges to the spatio-temporal variation of hydrodynamic variables and help in carrying out a systemic study on the flood propagation. A 1D2D model, with one-dimensional model for the rivers (based on MIKE 11 from DHI and a two-dimensional model for the haors (based on MIKE 21 from DHI were developed. In order to characterize flooding in the large area a flood index is proposed, which is computed based on the hydrograph characteristics such as the rising curve gradient, flood magnitude ratio and time to peak. The index was used in characterising flooding in the Haor region. In general, two groups of rivers were identified. The study enabled identifying the hot-spots in the study area with risks from flooding.

  18. Carbon monoxide poisoning and flooding: changes in risk before, during and after flooding require appropriate public health interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Thomas; Murray, Virginia; Baker, David

    2014-07-03

    of a disaster. The burden of disease from poisoning caused by each potential source and at each phase of a disaster is different. CO poisoning is not compulsory and deaths associated with a flood but delayed for a period of months, for example due to a damaged boiler, may never be attributed to the flood as surveillance often ends once the floodwaters recede. The problem of under-reporting is crucial to our understanding of flooding-related poisoning. The indoor use of portable generators, cooking and heating appliances designed for use outdoors during periods of loss of mains power or gas is a particular problem. In the recovery phase, equipment for pumping, dehumidifying and drying out of properties poses a new risk. In the long term, mortality and morbidity associated with the renewed use of boilers which may have suffered covert damage in flooding is recognised but very difficult to quantify. Papers evaluating interventions were not found and where literature exists on prevention of CO poisoning in disaster situations, it is from the USA. Conclusions This paper for the first time describes the different risks of CO poisoning posed by the different phases of a disaster. There is a specific need to recognise that any room in a building can harbour a CO emitting appliance in flooding; wood burners and rarely used chimney flues may become particularly problematic following a flood. Recommendations 1) Public health workers and policy makers should consider establishing toolkits using the CDC toolkit approach; the acceptability of any intervention must be evaluated further to guide informed policy. 2) CO poisoning must form part of syndromic and event based surveillance systems for flooding and should be included in measures of the health impact of flooding. 3) CO monitors in the domestic environment should be sited not only in proximity to known CO emitters but also in locations where mobile or short term CO emitting appliances may be placed, including woodburners and

  19. Carbon Monoxide Poisoning and Flooding: Changes in Risk Before, During and After Flooding Require Appropriate Public Health Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Thomas; Murray, Virginia; Baker, David

    2014-01-01

    phases of a disaster. The burden of disease from poisoning caused by each potential source and at each phase of a disaster is different. CO poisoning is not compulsory and deaths associated with a flood but delayed for a period of months, for example due to a damaged boiler, may never be attributed to the flood as surveillance often ends once the floodwaters recede. The problem of under–reporting is crucial to our understanding of flooding-related poisoning. The indoor use of portable generators, cooking and heating appliances designed for use outdoors during periods of loss of mains power or gas is a particular problem. In the recovery phase, equipment for pumping, dehumidifying and drying out of properties poses a new risk. In the long term, mortality and morbidity associated with the renewed use of boilers which may have suffered covert damage in flooding is recognised but very difficult to quantify. Papers evaluating interventions were not found and where literature exists on prevention of CO poisoning in disaster situations, it is from the USA. Conclusions This paper for the first time describes the different risks of CO poisoning posed by the different phases of a disaster. There is a specific need to recognise that any room in a building can harbour a CO emitting appliance in flooding; wood burners and rarely used chimney flues may become particularly problematic following a flood. Recommendations 1) Public health workers and policy makers should consider establishing toolkits using the CDC toolkit approach; the acceptability of any intervention must be evaluated further to guide informed policy. 2) CO poisoning must form part of syndromic and event based surveillance systems for flooding and should be included in measures of the health impact of flooding. 3) CO monitors in the domestic environment should be sited not only in proximity to known CO emitters but also in locations where mobile or short term CO emitting appliances may be placed, including

  20. Winter and summer-autumn flash floods as "drivers" of drought and seasonal flood characteristics (case study of European Russia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kireeva, Maria; Frolova, Natalia; Rets, Ekaterina; Ezerova, Natalia

    2016-04-01

    The presence of occasional flood periods on rivers is a typical feature of the hydrological regime of European Russia. Despite the fact that the main high-water phase of a hydrological year here is related to spring, flash floods in other seasons play an equally important role. For example, increased water content during autumn determines soil moisture content that determines the loss of runoff during spring flood. Winter floods caused by thaws result in a significant drawdown of a snow pack. And when it is followed by a return of cold weather an ice crust is formed on the surface of snowpack that significantly reduces rates of melt water filtration process.In recent decades, most of the rivers in the European part of Russia have experienced a significant increase of occasional flood flow share in total annual runoff. For example, in the Don basin this parameter has increased by almost 2 times, in the basin of Oka by 1.5. Though less intense, these trends can be traced in the eastern part of the region - in the basins of Kama and Vyatka. The increase here can is approximately 15-20%. In the north of the Eastern Plain (North Dvina, etc.) this tendency isn't observed. The number of flood waves has several times increased. Until 1970s 1-3 occasional floods a year were generally observed on the rivers of Central and Southern Russia. In the past three decades almost every year there are from 4 to 8 or more periods of high water. They are superimposed on each other, as well as the phase of the spring flood and low flow period. The ratio of the maximum discharge of occasional flood to maximum discharge of seasonal flood has increased several times. Now some outstanding floods can be compared with the spring flood wave or even exceed it.Thus, through winter floods an "interception" of spring flood runoff occurs. Spring floods have a lower height and volume and as a result they don't fully recharge a basin. Dry period in this case begins much earlier and though the moisture

  1. Application Of Geographic Information Systems Towards Flood Management In Shkodër, Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medjon HYSENAJ

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show the advantages of GIS in monitoring and improving flood response management in Albania. A full statistic overview of the last flooding occured in the region of Shkodra will be presented. The delicate area balances as far as water management is concerned, have turned into repetitive problematic that have become endemic to the region. The flooding in 2010 and 2011 due to heavy rain, snow melting and hydropower management caused a strong impact in the socio-economic life of the population. According to the last statistics, numbers referring to population displacement, house inundation, property damages seems to be a growing concern for the State Emergency Service. This scenario involves the role of the government institutions in both planning and the operational contexts. Uncoordinated measures between emergency groups, delayed actions from the hydropower specialists, the lack of updated geoinformation followed by a limited remote control occur due to a continuous distant approach created toward GIS technology in our country. As a solution to this scenario it will be presented a concrete platform based on calculations and statistics of dam capacity, allowed water levels, maximum rainfall levels, climate factors, population density and movements. GIS carriesthe potential for flood plain management, flood mapping and forecasting, also population education and awareness. Geospatial information and remote sensing utilization serves as bridge between flooding security measures and damage evaluation. Integration of the population distribution model toward flooding classification which aims the developing of an index mapping is the first step to be initiated. In our case it is important to denote that the usage ofGIS utilities is more effective in the pre-flood than the post-flood phase.

  2. Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

    2014-05-01

    ., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2013) Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Environmental Change. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.009. Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005): Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - Lessons Learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. NHESS, 5, 1, 117-126. Kreibich, H., Christenberger, S., Schwarze, R. (2011) Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods. NHESS, 11, 2, 309-321.

  3. Flood Risk and Asset Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Within the UK for example, the flooding of the village of Boscastle (August, 2004), that took place over a day, Roca -Collel and Davison (2010), can...Hazard Research Centre. Roca -Collel, M. and Davison, M. (2010). "Two dimensional model analysis of flash- flood processes: application to the Boscastle

  4. Geomorphological factors of flash floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuznetsova, Yulia

    2016-04-01

    Growing anthropogenic load, rise of extreme meteorological events frequency and total precipitation depth often lead to increasing danger of catastrophic fluvial processes worldwide. Flash floods are one of the most dangerous and less understood types of them. Difficulties of their study are mainly related to short duration of single events, remoteness and hard access to origin areas. Most detailed researches of flash floods focus on hydrological parameters of the flow itself and its meteorological factors. At the same time, importance of the basin geological and geomorphological structure for flash floods generation and the role they play in global sediment redistribution is yet poorly understood. However, understanding and quantitative assessment of these features is a real basis for a complete concept of factors, characteristics and dynamics of flash floods. This work is a review of published data on flash floods, and focuses on the geomorphological factors of the phenomenon. We consider both individual roles and interactions between different geomorphological features (the whole basin parameters, characteristics of the single slopes and valley bottom). Special attention is paid to critical values of certain factors. This approach also highlights the gaps or less studied factors of flash floods. Finally, all data is organized into a complex diagram that may be used for flash floods modeling. This also may help to reach a new level of flash flood predictions and risk assessment.

  5. Extreme flooding tolerance in Rorippa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Akman, M.; Bhikharie, A.; Mustroph, A.; Sasidharan, Rashmi

    2014-01-01

    Low oxygen stress imposed by floods creates a strong selection force shaping plant ecosystems in flood-prone areas. Plants inhabiting these environments adopt various adaptations and survival strategies to cope with increasing water depths. Two Rorippa species, R. sylvestris and R. amphibia that gro

  6. Challenges of Modeling Flood Risk at Large Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guin, J.; Simic, M.; Rowe, J.

    2009-04-01

    Flood risk management is a major concern for many nations and for the insurance sector in places where this peril is insured. A prerequisite for risk management, whether in the public sector or in the private sector is an accurate estimation of the risk. Mitigation measures and traditional flood management techniques are most successful when the problem is viewed at a large regional scale such that all inter-dependencies in a river network are well understood. From an insurance perspective the jury is still out there on whether flood is an insurable peril. However, with advances in modeling techniques and computer power it is possible to develop models that allow proper risk quantification at the scale suitable for a viable insurance market for flood peril. In order to serve the insurance market a model has to be event-simulation based and has to provide financial risk estimation that forms the basis for risk pricing, risk transfer and risk management at all levels of insurance industry at large. In short, for a collection of properties, henceforth referred to as a portfolio, the critical output of the model is an annual probability distribution of economic losses from a single flood occurrence (flood event) or from an aggregation of all events in any given year. In this paper, the challenges of developing such a model are discussed in the context of Great Britain for which a model has been developed. The model comprises of several, physically motivated components so that the primary attributes of the phenomenon are accounted for. The first component, the rainfall generator simulates a continuous series of rainfall events in space and time over thousands of years, which are physically realistic while maintaining the statistical properties of rainfall at all locations over the model domain. A physically based runoff generation module feeds all the rivers in Great Britain, whose total length of stream links amounts to about 60,000 km. A dynamical flow routing

  7. Urban Flood Risk Insurance Models as a Strategy for Proactive Water Management Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graciosa, M. C.; Mendiondo, E. M.

    2006-12-01

    To improve the water management through hydrological sciences, novel integration strategies could be underpinned to bridge up both engineering and economics. This is especially significant in developing nations where hydrologic extremes are expressive while the financial resources to mitigate that variability are scarce. One example of this problem is related to floods and their global and regional consequences. Floods mainly cause disasters in terms of human and material losses. In 2002, more than 30% of extreme climatic events occurred worldwide were floods, representing 42% of fatalities and 66% of material losses, mostly related to reactive policies. Throughout the last century, hydrological variability and rapidly growing of urban areas have developed new environmental problems in Brazilian cities, such as inundation occurrences on non-planned river basins. One of the causes of flood impacts is that public funds (national, state or municipal) have barely introduced wise proactive polices to follow up rapidly growing urban areas. Inexistent flood-risk-transfer mechanisms have caused the so-called `flood poverty cycle' due to reactive polices that have been increasing flood losses and, sometimes, became flood disasters. Flood risk management (FRM) is part of pro-active policies to mitigate inundation losses, in order to sustain environmental, social and economic aspects. Concepts and principles of FRM are part of a process that encompasses three phases: (1) preparedness stage, that consists in structural and non-structural actions to prevent and protect potential risk areas, such as early warning systems and scenarios development; (2) control stage, that refers to help actions and protection facilities during the event, and (3) restoration stage, that is related to rebuild affected areas, restore the river dynamics and transfer the socio-economic risks through flood insurances. Flood risk insurances agree to the goals of losses mitigation programs. Their use is

  8. Long-term changes in community assembly, resistance, and resilience following experimental floods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Christopher T

    2012-10-01

    This study examined the long-term changes in community assembly, resistance, and resilience of macroinvertebrates following 10 years of experimental floods in a flow regulated river. Physico-chemistry, macroinvertebrates, and periphyton biomass were monitored before and sequentially after each of 22 floods, and drift/seston was collected during six separate floods over the study period. The floods reduced the density and taxon richness of macroinvertebrates, and a nonmetric dimensional scaling (NMDS) analysis distinguished temporal shifts in community assembly. Resistance (measured as the relative lack of loss in density) tofloods varied among taxa, and the abundance of resistant taxa was related to the temporal changes in community assembly. Community resistance was inversely related to flood magnitude with all larger floods (> 25 m3/s, > 16-fold over baseflow) reducing densities by > 75% regardless of flood year, whereas smaller floods (floods. No relationship was found between flood magnitude and the relative loss in periphyton biomass. Resilience was defined as the recovery slope (positive slope of a parameter with time following each flood) and was unrelated to shifts in community assembly or resistance. Macroinvertebrate drift and seston demonstrated hysteresis (i.e., a temporal response in parameter quantity with change in discharge) during each flood, although larger floods typically had two peaks in both parameters. The first peak was a response to the initial increases in flow, whereas the second peak was associated with streambed disturbance (substrate mobility) and side-slope failure causing increased scour. Drift density was 3-9 times greater and that of seston 3-30 times greater during larger floods than smaller floods. These results demonstrate temporal shifts in macroinvertebrate community assembly toward a pre-dam assemblage following sequential floods in this flow regulated river, thus confirming the ecological role of habitat filtering in

  9. Economic costs incurred by households in the 2011 Greater Bangkok flood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabangchang, Orapan; Allaire, Maura; Leangcharoen, Prinyarat; Jarungrattanapong, Rawadee; Whittington, Dale

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the first comprehensive estimates of the economic costs experienced by households in the 2011 Greater Bangkok flood. More generally, it contributes to the literature by presenting the first estimates of flood costs based on primary data collected from respondents of flooded homes using in-person interviews. Two rounds of interviews were conducted with 469 households in three of the most heavily affected districts of greater Bangkok. The estimates of economic costs include preventative costs, ex post losses, compensation received, and any new income generated during the flood. Median household economic costs were US3089, equivalent to about half of annual household expenditures (mean costs were US5261). Perhaps surprisingly given the depth and duration of the flood, most houses incurred little structural damage (although furniture, appliances, and cars were damaged). Median economic costs to poor and nonpoor households were similar as a percentage of annual household expenditures (53% and 48%, respectively). Compensation payments received from government did little to reduce the total economic losses of the vast majority of households. Two flood-related deaths were reported in our sample—both in low-income neighborhoods. Overall, ex post damage was the largest component of flood costs (66% of total). These findings are new, important inputs for the evaluation of flood control mitigation and preventive measures that are now under consideration by the Government of Thailand. The paper also illustrates how detailed microeconomic data on household costs can be collected and summarized for policy purposes.

  10. The economic-wide consequences of large-scale floods. How resilient is the European economy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koks, Elco; Thissen, Mark; De Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    For a successful adaptation strategy, it is necessary to have an in-depth understanding of the economic consequences of a flood. To assess the economic consequences of large-scale river floods in Europe, we introduce an integrated direct and indirect risk model for the European economy as a whole. The proposed methodology consists of multiple steps. First, a direct loss assessment is conducted for the 50 largest river basin districts in Europe, based on simulated floods for several return periods. Second, the direct losses in capital and labour are translated into the loss in production per sector. Third, the recovery of this production shock is modelled using a hybrid interregional input-output model, combining non-linear programming and input-output modelling. This combination makes it possible to find (1) the possible production losses in the affected regions and other European regions, (2) the required production in Europe to satisfy additional reconstruction demands from the affected regions and (3) the required production in other regions that is necessary to take over lost production in the affected region. Consequently, when knowing how much production is lost (or gained) in each region, the economic consequences can be assessed. Finally, the model outcome is loss estimation expressed in terms of expected annual damage. To assess these consequences, interregional supply and use tables are used, consisting of 256 different European NUTS2 regions. This data makes it possible to model the indirect losses for both the affected regions and the rest of Europe in detail. By combining the outcomes of all floods in all the river basin districts, it is possible to determine the flood risk of each region in Europe, even when a region is not directly hit by a flood. Consequently, the overall consequences for the European Union are found to be positive for small-scale floods and negative for large-scale floods.

  11. Long-lasting floods buffer the thermal regime of the Pampas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houspanossian, Javier; Kuppel, Sylvain; Nosetto, Marcelo; Di Bella, Carlos; Oricchio, Patricio; Barrucand, Mariana; Rusticucci, Matilde; Jobbágy, Esteban

    2016-10-01

    The presence of large water masses influences the thermal regime of nearby land shaping the local climate of coastal areas by the ocean or large continental lakes. Large surface water bodies have an ephemeral nature in the vast sedimentary plains of the Pampas (Argentina) where non-flooded periods alternate with flooding cycles covering up to one third of the landscape for several months. Based on temperature records from 17 sites located 1 to 700 km away from the Atlantic coast and MODIS land surface temperature data, we explore the effects of floods on diurnal and seasonal thermal ranges as well as temperature extremes. In non-flooded periods, there is a linear increase of mean diurnal thermal range (DTR) from the coast towards the interior of the region (DTR increasing from 10 to 16 K, 0.79 K/100 km, r 2 = 0.81). This relationship weakens during flood episodes when the DTR of flood-prone inland locations shows a decline of 2 to 4 K, depending on surface water coverage in the surrounding area. DTR even approaches typical coastal values 500 km away from the ocean in the most flooded location that we studied during the three flooding cycles recorded in the study period. Frosts-free periods, a key driver of the phenology of both natural and cultivated ecosystems, are extended by up to 55 days during floods, most likely as a result of enhanced ground heat storage across the landscape ( 2.7 fold change in day-night heat transfer) combined with other effects on the surface energy balance such as greater night evaporation rates. The reduced thermal range and longer frost-free periods affect plant growth development and may offer an opportunity for longer crop growing periods, which may not only contribute to partially compensating for regional production losses caused by floods, but also open avenues for flood mitigation through higher plant evapotranspirative water losses.

  12. An Investigation on the Sensitivity of the Parameters of Urban Flood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    M, A. B.; Lohani, B.; Jain, A.

    2015-12-01

    Global climatic change has triggered weather patterns which lead to heavy and sudden rainfall in different parts of world. The impact of heavy rainfall is severe especially on urban areas in the form of urban flooding. In order to understand the effect of heavy rainfall induced flooding, it is necessary to model the entire flooding scenario more accurately, which is now becoming possible with the availability of high resolution airborne LiDAR data and other real time observations. However, there is not much understanding on the optimal use of these data and on the effect of other parameters on the performance of the flood model. This study aims at developing understanding on these issues. In view of the above discussion, the aim of this study is to (i) understand that how the use of high resolution LiDAR data improves the performance of urban flood model, and (ii) understand the sensitivity of various hydrological parameters on urban flood modelling. In this study, modelling of flooding in urban areas due to heavy rainfall is carried out considering Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur, India as the study site. The existing model MIKE FLOOD, which is accepted by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), is used along with the high resolution airborne LiDAR data. Once the model is setup it is made to run by changing the parameters such as resolution of Digital Surface Model (DSM), manning's roughness, initial losses, catchment description, concentration time, runoff reduction factor. In order to realize this, the results obtained from the model are compared with the field observations. The parametric study carried out in this work demonstrates that the selection of catchment description plays a very important role in urban flood modelling. Results also show the significant impact of resolution of DSM, initial losses and concentration time on urban flood model. This study will help in understanding the effect of various parameters that should be part of a

  13. fMRI repetition suppression: neuronal adaptation or stimulus expectation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsson, Jonas; Smith, Andrew T

    2012-03-01

    Measurements of repetition suppression with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI adaptation) have been used widely to probe neuronal population response properties in human cerebral cortex. fMRI adaptation techniques assume that fMRI repetition suppression reflects neuronal adaptation, an assumption that has been challenged on the basis of evidence that repetition-related response changes may reflect unrelated factors, such as attention and stimulus expectation. Specifically, Summerfield et al. (Summerfield C, Trittschuh EH, Monti JM, Mesulam MM, Egner T. 2008. Neural repetition suppression reflects fulfilled perceptual expectations. Nat Neurosci. 11:1004-1006) reported that the relative frequency of stimulus repetitions and non-repetitions influenced the magnitude of repetition suppression in the fusiform face area, suggesting that stimulus expectation accounted for most of the effect of repetition. We confirm that stimulus expectation can significantly influence fMRI repetition suppression throughout visual cortex and show that it occurs with long as well as short adaptation durations. However, the effect was attention dependent: When attention was diverted away from the stimuli, the effects of stimulus expectation completely disappeared. Nonetheless, robust and significant repetition suppression was still evident. These results suggest that fMRI repetition suppression reflects a combination of neuronal adaptation and attention-dependent expectation effects that can be experimentally dissociated. This implies that with an appropriate experimental design, fMRI adaptation can provide valid measures of neuronal adaptation and hence response specificity.

  14. Flash Flooding and 'Muddy Floods' on Arable Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boardman, J.

    2012-04-01

    Flash flooding is often associated with upland, grazed catchments. It does, however, occur in lowland arable-dominated areas. In southern England, notable examples have occurred at Rottingdean (Brighton) in 1987, at Faringdon (Oxfordshire) in 1993 and at Breaky Bottom vineyard (near Brighton) in 1987 and 2000. All resulted in damage to nearby property. Runoff was largely from recently cultivated ground. The characteristics of such floods are: Rapid runoff from bare soil surfaces. Saturated excess overland flow is likely in the early parts of storms but high intensity rainfall on loamy soils results in crusting and Hortonian overland flow; High rates of erosion; Sediment transport to downvalley sites causing property damage ('muddy flooding'). Muddy floods are known from several areas of Europe e.g. Belgium, northern France, South Limburg (Netherlands) and Slovakia (Boardman et al 2006). In other areas they occur but have gone unreported or are classified under different terms. The necessary conditions for occurrence are areas of arable land which is bare at times of the year when there is a risk of storms. For muddy floods to cause damage (and hence be reported), vulnerable property must lie downstream from such areas of arable land. In some areas the incidence of muddy floods relates to autumn and early winter rainfall and winter cereal crops (e.g. southern England). In continental Europe, flooding is more common in summer and is associated with convectional storms and land uses including sugar beet, maize and potatoes. Predictions of increased numbers of high-intensity storms with future climate change, suggest that arable areas will continue to generate both flash floods and muddy floods.

  15. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel C; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten K; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip J

    2015-05-05

    The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

  16. Growth, biomass partitioning and photosynthesis of young plants of Genipa spruceana subjected to flooding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Francisco de Carvalho Gonçalves

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Genipa spruceana Steyerm (Rubiaceae is a species often found in flooded environments in the central Amazonia. The objective of this study was elucidate possible adaptive strategies that enable this species to occupy environments under flooding, targeting the potential of the species for restoration of floodplains. In order to achieve these objectives growth traits, number of leaves, leaf expansion, biomass production, carbon assimilation and stomatal conductance were investigated in G. spruceana seedlings subjected to treatments: 1- Non flooded plants (control –SA, 2- partially flooded (PA and 3- completely flooded (TA up to 90 days. Flooded treatments (PA and TA induced smaller increments in all variables of height and diameter growth when compared to the control treatment. With increase of flooding, biomass allocation to leaves decreased until complete leaf abscission in TA, while increased in the stem. In PA treatment was observed reduction in C assimilation rates of 58% and 64% after 60 and 90 days, respectively, and 96% after 60 days in TA treatment. However, in the end of the experiment all treatments presented 100% of survival. Our results indicate that the loss of leaves and gain of the stem biomass can be protective strategy to alleviate the harmful effects of the flooding. On the other hand, the maxim survival rates suggest that G. spruceana exhibit high potential for establishment in frequently flooded areas.

  17. Improving Gas Flooding Efficiency

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid Grigg; Robert Svec; Zheng Zeng; Alexander Mikhalin; Yi Lin; Guoqiang Yin; Solomon Ampir; Rashid Kassim

    2008-03-31

    This study focuses on laboratory studies with related analytical and numerical models, as well as work with operators for field tests to enhance our understanding of and capabilities for more efficient enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Much of the work has been performed at reservoir conditions. This includes a bubble chamber and several core flood apparatus developed or modified to measure interfacial tension (IFT), critical micelle concentration (CMC), foam durability, surfactant sorption at reservoir conditions, and pressure and temperature effects on foam systems.Carbon dioxide and N{sub 2} systems have been considered, under both miscible and immiscible conditions. The injection of CO2 into brine-saturated sandstone and carbonate core results in brine saturation reduction in the range of 62 to 82% brine in the tests presented in this paper. In each test, over 90% of the reduction occurred with less than 0.5 PV of CO{sub 2} injected, with very little additional brine production after 0.5 PV of CO{sub 2} injected. Adsorption of all considered surfactant is a significant problem. Most of the effect is reversible, but the amount required for foaming is large in terms of volume and cost for all considered surfactants. Some foams increase resistance to the value beyond what is practical in the reservoir. Sandstone, limestone, and dolomite core samples were tested. Dissolution of reservoir rock and/or cement, especially carbonates, under acid conditions of CO2 injection is a potential problem in CO2 injection into geological formations. Another potential change in reservoir injectivity and productivity will be the precipitation of dissolved carbonates as the brine flows and pressure decreases. The results of this report provide methods for determining surfactant sorption and can be used to aid in the determination of surfactant requirements for reservoir use in a CO{sub 2}-foam flood for mobility control. It also provides data to be used to determine rock permeability

  18. Socio-Economic Resilience to Floods in 90 Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, S.; Bangalore, M.; Vogt-Schilb, A.

    2015-12-01

    Global losses from floods are increasing, with renewed calls for action to reduce their impact. In each country, region or city, many actions can protect the population and help rebuild and recover: building dikes and restoring mangroves; land-use planning; early warning and evacuation; insurance and social safety nets. What should be the priorities? How to build a comprehensive strategy? Is progress being made? We propose a tool - a national-level scorecard based on welfare economics - to assess a country's socio-economic resilience to river floods and identify the most promising policy options in different contexts to reduce the impact of floods on well-being. The tool is applied to 90 countries using open databases, and can serve as a starting point for designing policies and more in-depth local studies.

  19. Flood hazard and management: a UK perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheater, Howard S

    2006-08-15

    This paper discusses whether flood hazard in the UK is increasing and considers issues of flood risk management. Urban development is known to increase fluvial flood frequency, hence design measures are routinely implemented to minimize the impact. Studies suggest that historical effects, while potentially large at small scale, are not significant for large river basins. Storm water flooding within the urban environment is an area where flood hazard is inadequately defined; new methods are needed to assess and manage flood risk. Development on flood plains has led to major capital expenditure on flood protection, but government is attempting to strengthen the planning role of the environmental regulator to prevent this. Rural land use management has intensified significantly over the past 30 years, leading to concerns that flood risk has increased, at least at local scale; the implications for catchment-scale flooding are unclear. New research is addressing this issue, and more broadly, the role of land management in reducing flood risk. Climate change impacts on flooding and current guidelines for UK practice are reviewed. Large uncertainties remain, not least for the occurrence of extreme precipitation, but precautionary guidance is in place. Finally, current levels of flood protection are discussed. Reassessment of flood hazard has led to targets for increased flood protection, but despite important developments to communicate flood risk to the public, much remains to be done to increase public awareness of flood hazard.

  20. Somerset County Flood Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoppe, Heidi L.

    2007-01-01

    The timely warning of a flood is crucial to the protection of lives and property. One has only to recall the floods of August 2, 1973, September 16 and 17, 1999, and April 16, 2007, in Somerset County, New Jersey, in which lives were lost and major property damage occurred, to realize how costly, especially in terms of human life, an unexpected flood can be. Accurate forecasts and warnings cannot be made, however, without detailed information about precipitation and streamflow in the drainage basin. Since the mid 1960's, the National Weather Service (NWS) has been able to forecast flooding on larger streams in Somerset County, such as the Raritan and Millstone Rivers. Flooding on smaller streams in urban areas was more difficult to predict. In response to this problem the NWS, in cooperation with the Green Brook Flood Control Commission, installed a precipitation gage in North Plainfield, and two flash-flood alarms, one on Green Brook at Seeley Mills and one on Stony Brook at Watchung, in the early 1970's. In 1978, New Jersey's first countywide flood-warning system was installed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in Somerset County. This system consisted of a network of eight stage and discharge gages equipped with precipitation gages linked by telephone telemetry and eight auxiliary precipitation gages. The gages were installed throughout the county to collect precipitation and runoff data that could be used to improve flood-monitoring capabilities and flood-frequency estimates. Recognizing the need for more detailed hydrologic information for Somerset County, the USGS, in cooperation with Somerset County, designed and installed the Somerset County Flood Information System (SCFIS) in 1990. This system is part of a statewide network of stream gages, precipitation gages, weather stations, and tide gages that collect data in real time. The data provided by the SCFIS improve the flood forecasting ability of the NWS and aid Somerset County and municipal agencies in

  1. The 2011 Thailand flood: climate causes and return periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Emma; Saunders, Mark

    2013-04-01

    Thailand is one of the most developed and wealthiest countries in Southeast Asia. However, its tropical location and the influence of seasonal monsoon rains and local topography make it prone to floods. The Thailand floods in 2011 were especially severe causing estimated losses of US 30 billion (economic) and US 12 billion (insured) (Swiss Re, 2012). This insured loss ranks easily as the highest ever worldwide from a freshwater flood disaster (Swiss Re, 2012). We review the nature, impacts and historical ranking of the 2011 Thailand flood, and then discuss the climate causes for the exceptional rainfall which triggered the flood - annual rainfall in 2011 was the highest in Thailand's 61-year precipitation record (Thai Meteorological Department, 2011). Thai precipitation data from 100 stations for the period 1992-2011, NCEP/NCAR mean sea level pressure (MSLP) data and best-track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center for the period 1992-2011 are used in this study. We find that the floods were caused by a combination of a strong Southeast Asian summer monsoon that brought high rainfall across the country between May and October, and by the remnants of four tropical storms that brought high rainfall to northern Thailand between June and October. During the monsoon season the Southern Oscillation was moderately positive and, as a result, likely contributed to the high monsoonal rains. We estimate the return periods for the 2011 Thai rains and compare these to satellite-derived return periods for 2011 Thai river flow. The rainfall return period varies from 8-20 years in the north and south of the country to 1-8 years in the east and centre of Thailand. Satellite-derived river flows at two locations on the Chao Phraya River suggest a return period of 10-20 years. The return period is also estimated using historical flood records (Brakenridge, 2012) which suggest a return period of 5-6 years. A 'consensus' return period for the 2011 Thai flood is estimated to be 10

  2. Response of Vegetation on Gravel Bars to Management Measures and Floods: Case Study From the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eremiášová Renata

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates response of vegetation on gravel bars to management measures and floods. The management measures consisted of the partial removal of gravel and vegetation cover, and were applied to six gravel bars on the Ostravice River, Czech Republic. Unexpected floods occu-rred in 2010, with the amplitude of 5- to 50-year repetition. Research of vegetation on the gravel bars consisted of vegetation survey before the management works; the monitoring of vegetation development over the following year and the verification of the relationships of species diversity, successional stages and the biotope conditions with the help of multivariate analysis (detrended correspondence analysis. Vegetation on the gravel bars was at different successional stages, and had higher diversity and vegetation cover before the management measures and floods. The mul-tivariate analysis revealed a shift toward initial successional stages with high demand on moisture, temperature and light after both management measures and floods.

  3. Hair Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... loss at the scarred areas. These conditions include lichen planus, some types of lupus and sarcoidosis. Hair- ... increase your risk of hair loss, including: Family history Age Poor nutrition Certain medical conditions, such as ...

  4. Hearing Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... effects on your hearing — ringing in the ear (tinnitus) or hearing loss — can occur if you take ... adults with hearing loss, commonly reported problems include: Depression Anxiety An often false sense that others are ...

  5. Integrating adaptive behaviour in large-scale flood risk assessments: an Agent-Based Modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haer, Toon; Aerts, Jeroen

    2015-04-01

    Between 1998 and 2009, Europe suffered over 213 major damaging floods, causing 1126 deaths, displacing around half a million people. In this period, floods caused at least 52 billion euro in insured economic losses making floods the most costly natural hazard faced in Europe. In many low-lying areas, the main strategy to cope with floods is to reduce the risk of the hazard through flood defence structures, like dikes and levees. However, it is suggested that part of the responsibility for flood protection needs to shift to households and businesses in areas at risk, and that governments and insurers can effectively stimulate the implementation of individual protective measures. However, adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction and the interaction between the government, insurers, and individuals has hardly been studied in large-scale flood risk assessments. In this study, an European Agent-Based Model is developed including agent representatives for the administrative stakeholders of European Member states, insurers and reinsurers markets, and individuals following complex behaviour models. The Agent-Based Modelling approach allows for an in-depth analysis of the interaction between heterogeneous autonomous agents and the resulting (non-)adaptive behaviour. Existing flood damage models are part of the European Agent-Based Model to allow for a dynamic response of both the agents and the environment to changing flood risk and protective efforts. By following an Agent-Based Modelling approach this study is a first contribution to overcome the limitations of traditional large-scale flood risk models in which the influence of individual adaptive behaviour towards flood risk reduction is often lacking.

  6. Storytelling and Repetitive Narratives for Design Empathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritsch, Jonas; Judice, Andrea; Soini, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Today it is widely established in design research that empathy is an important part of creating a true understanding of user experience as a resource for design. A typical challenge is how to transmit the feeling of empathy acquired by user studies to designers who have not participated in the user...... study. In this paper, we show how we attained an empathic understanding through storytelling and aroused empathy to others using repetitive narratives in an experimental presentation bringing forth factual, reflective and experiential aspects of the user information. Taking as a starting point our...... experiences with the design project Suomenlinna Seclusive, we conclude with the potential of using narratives for invoking design empathy....

  7. A miniature high repetition rate shock tube.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tranter, R S; Lynch, P T

    2013-09-01

    A miniature high repetition rate shock tube with excellent reproducibility has been constructed to facilitate high temperature, high pressure, gas phase experiments at facilities such as synchrotron light sources where space is limited and many experiments need to be averaged to obtain adequate signal levels. The shock tube is designed to generate reaction conditions of T > 600 K, P shock waves with predictable characteristics are created, repeatably. Two synchrotron-based experiments using this apparatus are also briefly described here, demonstrating the potential of the shock tube for research at synchrotron light sources.

  8. Storytelling and Repetitive Narratives for Design Empathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fritsch, Jonas; Judice, Andrea; Soini, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Today it is widely established in design research that empathy is an important part of creating a true understanding of user experience as a resource for design. A typical challenge is how to transmit the feeling of empathy acquired by user studies to designers who have not participated in the user...... study. In this paper, we show how we attained an empathic understanding through storytelling and aroused empathy to others using repetitive narratives in an experimental presentation bringing forth factual, reflective and experiential aspects of the user information. Taking as a starting point our...... experiences with the design project Suomenlinna Seclusive, we conclude with the potential of using narratives for invoking design empathy....

  9. The repetitive component of the sunflower genome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Giordani

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The sunflower (Helianthus annuus and species belonging to the genus Helianthus are emerging as a model species and genus for a number of studies on genome evolution. In this review, we report on the repetitive component of the H. annuus genome at the biochemical, molecular, cytological, and genomic levels. Recent work on sunflower genome composition is described, with emphasis on different types of repeat sequences, especially LTR-retrotransposons, of which we report on isolation, characterisation, cytological localisation, transcription, dynamics of proliferation, and comparative analyses within the genus Helianthus.

  10. Making Supply Chains Resilient to Floods Using a Bayesian Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haraguchi, M.

    2015-12-01

    Natural hazards distress the global economy by disrupting the interconnected supply chain networks. Manufacturing companies have created cost-efficient supply chains by reducing inventories, streamlining logistics and limiting the number of suppliers. As a result, today's supply chains are profoundly susceptible to systemic risks. In Thailand, for example, the GDP growth rate declined by 76 % in 2011 due to prolonged flooding. Thailand incurred economic damage including the loss of USD 46.5 billion, approximately 70% of which was caused by major supply chain disruptions in the manufacturing sector. Similar problems occurred after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011, the Mississippi River floods and droughts during 2011 - 2013, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This study proposes a methodology for modeling supply chain disruptions using a Bayesian network analysis (BNA) to estimate expected values of countermeasures of floods, such as inventory management, supplier management and hard infrastructure management. We first performed a spatio-temporal correlation analysis between floods and extreme precipitation data for the last 100 years at a global scale. Then we used a BNA to create synthetic networks that include variables associated with the magnitude and duration of floods, major components of supply chains and market demands. We also included decision variables of countermeasures that would mitigate potential losses caused by supply chain disruptions. Finally, we conducted a cost-benefit analysis by estimating the expected values of these potential countermeasures while conducting a sensitivity analysis. The methodology was applied to supply chain disruptions caused by the 2011 Thailand floods. Our study demonstrates desirable typical data requirements for the analysis, such as anonymized supplier network data (i.e. critical dependencies, vulnerability information of suppliers) and sourcing data(i.e. locations of suppliers, and production rates and

  11. Novel early flood warning in the Huaihe River basin in east-central China using the TIGGE database

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Y.; Cloke, H.; Li, Z.; Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.

    2009-04-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. The last decade has seen an increase in flood preparedness across all levels of society in China. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction systems from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days) need to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of a number of global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin located in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. Results from selected flood events will be presented.

  12. Socio-hydrological flood models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barendrecht, Marlies; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Such phenomena cannot be represented by traditional flood risk approaches that are based on scenarios. Instead, dynamic models of the coupled human-flood interactions are needed. These types of models should include both social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, in order to adequately represent the feedbacks and processes that are of importance in human-flood systems. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management by exploring a wider range of possible futures, including unexpected phenomena, than is possible by creating and studying scenarios. New insights might come to light about the long term effects of certain measures on society and the natural system. Here we discuss a dynamic framework for flood risk and review the models that are presented in literature. We propose a way forward for socio-hydrological modelling of the human-flood system.

  13. Reflections on the current debate on how to link flood insurance and disaster risk reduction in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Surminski, S.; Aerts, J. C J H; Botzen, W. J W; Hudson, P.; Mysiak, J.; Pérez-Blanco, C. D.

    2015-01-01

    Flood insurance differs widely in scope and form across Europe. Against the backdrop of rising flood losses, a debate about the role of EU policy in shaping the future of this compensation mechanism is led by policy-makers and industry. While the question of supply and demand is at the core of the d

  14. Effects of forcing uncertainties in the improvement skills of assimilating satellite soil moisture retrievals into flood forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Floods have negative impacts on society, causing damages in infrastructures and industry, and in the worst cases, causing loss of human lives. Thus early and accurate warning is crucial to significantly reduce the impacts on public safety and economy. Reliable flood warning can be generated using ...

  15. Reflections on the current debate on how to link flood insurance and disaster risk reduction in the European Union

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Surminski, S.; Aerts, J. C J H; Botzen, W. J W; Hudson, P.; Mysiak, J.; Pérez-Blanco, C. D.

    2015-01-01

    Flood insurance differs widely in scope and form across Europe. Against the backdrop of rising flood losses, a debate about the role of EU policy in shaping the future of this compensation mechanism is led by policy-makers and industry. While the question of supply and demand is at the core of the d

  16. Natural Flood Management in context: evaluating and enhancing the impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metcalfe, Peter; Beven, Keith; Hankin, Barry; Lamb, Rob

    2016-04-01

    The series of flood events in the UK throughout December 2015 have led to calls for a reappraisal of the country's approach to flood management. In parts of Cumbria so-called "1 in 100" year floods have occurred three times in the last ten years, leading to significant infrastructure damage. Hard-engineered defences upgraded to cope with an anticipated 20% increase in peak flows and these 1% AEP events have been overwhelmed. It has become more widely acknowledged that unsympathetic agricultural and upland management practices, mainly since the Second World War, have led to a significant loss of storage in mid and upper catchments and their consequent ability to retain and slow storm run-off. Natural Flood Management (NFM) is a nature-based solution to restoring this storage and flood peak attenuation through a network of small-scale features exploiting natural topography and materials. Combined with other "soft" interventions such as restoring flood plain roughness and tree-planting, NFM offers the attractive prospect of an intervention that can target both the ecological and chemical objectives of the Water Framework Directive and the resilience demanded by the Floods Directive. We developed a simple computerised physical routing model that can account for the presence of in-channel and offline features such as would be found in a NFM scheme. These will add storage to the channel and floodplain and throttle the downstream discharge at storm flows. The model was applied to the heavily-modified channel network of an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire using the run-off simulated for two storm events that caused flooding downstream in the autumn of 2012. Using up to 60 online features we demonstrated some gains in channel storage and a small impact on the flood hydrograph which would, however, have been insufficient to prevent the downstream floods in either of the storms. Complementary research at JBA has applied their hydrodynamic model JFLOW+ to identify

  17. Torrential floods and town and country planning in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ristić

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Torrential floods are the most frequent natural catastrophic events in Serbia, causing the loss of human lives and huge material damage, both in urban and rural areas. The analysis of the intra-annual distribution of maximal discharges aided in noticing that torrential floods have a seasonal character. The erosion and torrent control works (ETCWs in Serbia began at the end of the 19th century. Effective protection from torrential floods encompasses biotechnical works on the slopes in the watershed and technical works on the torrent beds, within a precisely defined administrative and spatial framework in order to achieve maximal safety for people and their property. Cooperation to overcome the conflicts between the sectors of the water resources management, forestry, agriculture, energetics, environmental protection and local economic development groups is indispensable at the following levels: policy, spatial planning, practice, investments and education. The lowest and most effective level is through the Plans for Announcement of Erosive Regions (PAERs and the Plans for Protection from Torrential Floods (PPTFs, with Hazard Zones (HZs and Threatened Areas (TAs mapping on the basis of the hydrologic, hydraulic and spatial analysis of the factors that are important for the formation of torrential floods. Solutions defined through PAERs and PPTFs have to be integrated into Spatial Plans at local and regional levels.

  18. FLOOD MODEL FOR THE BÓDVA CATCHMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RÓBERT NÉMETH

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In term of floods the current area of Hungary has extensively been endangered. Modelling of flood processes – mainly following the hydrological events in the riverbed – has recently been developed. As far as protection dykes provide protection of the inhabited and agricultural areas, the flood models can run with acceptable preciseness. However, when dykes cannot withstand against the increasing load and a dyke burst occurs, fast and efficient protection measures shall be taken in the protected areas. The dynamic 4D Flood model presented in this paper makes possible a fast modelling of dyke burst occurring in the protected side and spreading of water mass, based on real parameters. For this reason the features of protected area shall be recognised, for example topology of creeks, features of agricultural and inhabited areas, parameters of roads, railways, rainwater drainage, buildings, natural conditions (soil parameters, meteorological characteristics, etc.. The results satisfy the comprehensive demands of the Directorate General for Disaster Prevention of Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén County. In case of dyke burst, the completed Flood Model can run the expected events of the next hour in a few minutes. This time is enough for the specialists to bring operative decisions to protect the inhabitants and avoid material losses.

  19. Torrential floods and town and country planning in Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ristić, R.; Kostadinov, S.; Abolmasov, B.; Dragićević, S.; Trivan, G.; Radić, B.; Trifunović, M.; Radosavljević, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Torrential floods are the most frequent natural catastrophic events in Serbia, causing the loss of human lives and huge material damage, both in urban and rural areas. The analysis of the intra-annual distribution of maximal discharges aided in noticing that torrential floods have a seasonal character. The erosion and torrent control works (ETCWs) in Serbia began at the end of the 19th century. Effective protection from torrential floods encompasses biotechnical works on the slopes in the watershed and technical works on the torrent beds, within a precisely defined administrative and spatial framework in order to achieve maximal safety for people and their property. Cooperation to overcome the conflicts between the sectors of the water resources management, forestry, agriculture, energetics, environmental protection and local economic development groups is indispensable at the following levels: policy, spatial planning, practice, investments and education. The lowest and most effective level is through the Plans for Announcement of Erosive Regions (PAERs) and the Plans for Protection from Torrential Floods (PPTFs), with Hazard Zones (HZs) and Threatened Areas (TAs) mapping on the basis of the hydrologic, hydraulic and spatial analysis of the factors that are important for the formation of torrential floods. Solutions defined through PAERs and PPTFs have to be integrated into Spatial Plans at local and regional levels.

  20. From flood management systems to flood resilient systems: integration of flood resilient technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salagnac, J.-L.; Diez, J.; Tourbier, J.

    2012-04-01

    Flooding has always been a major risk world-wide. Humans chose to live and develop settlements close to water (rivers, seas) due to the resources water brings, i.e. food, energy, capacity to economically transport persons and goods, and recreation. However, the risk from flooding, including pluvial flooding, often offsets these huge advantages. Floods sometimes have terrible consequences from both a human and economic point of view. The permanence and growth of urban areas in flood-prone zones despite these risks is a clear indication of the choices of concerned human groups. The observed growing concentration of population along the sea shore, the increase of urban population worldwide, the exponential growth of the world population and possibly climate change are factors that confirm flood will remain a major issue for the next decades. Flood management systems are designed and implemented to cope with such situations. In spite of frequent events, lessons look to be difficult to draw out and progresses are rather slow. The list of potential triggers to improve flood management systems is nevertheless well established: information, education, awareness raising, alert, prevention, protection, feedback from events, ... Many disciplines are concerned which cover a wide range of soft and hard sciences. A huge amount of both printed and electronic literature is available. Regulations are abundant. In spite of all these potentially favourable elements, similar questions spring up after each new significant event: • Was the event forecast precise enough? • Was the alert system efficient? • Why were buildings built in identified flood prone areas? • Why did the concerned population not follow instructions? • Why did the dike break? • What should we do to avoid it happens again? • What about damages evaluation, wastes and debris evacuation, infrastructures and buildings repair, activity recovery, temporary relocation of inhabitants, health concerns, insurance

  1. Flooding Fragility Experiments and Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tahhan, Antonio [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Muchmore, Cody [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Nichols, Larinda [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bhandari, Bishwo [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pope, Chad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report describes the work that has been performed on flooding fragility, both the experimental tests being carried out and the probabilistic fragility predictive models being produced in order to use the text results. Flooding experiments involving full-scale doors have commenced in the Portal Evaluation Tank. The goal of these experiments is to develop a full-scale component flooding experiment protocol and to acquire data that can be used to create Bayesian regression models representing the fragility of these components. This work is in support of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluation research and development.

  2. Integrated remote sensing imagery and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling approach for impact evaluation of flood on crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huili; Liang, Zhongyao; Liu, Yong; Liang, Qiuhua; Xie, Shuguang

    2017-10-01

    The projected frequent occurrences of extreme flood events will cause significant losses to crops and will threaten food security. To reduce the potential risk and provide support for agricultural flood management, prevention, and mitigation, it is important to account for flood damage to crop production and to understand the relationship between flood characteristics and crop losses. A quantitative and effective evaluation tool is therefore essential to explore what and how flood characteristics will affect the associated crop loss, based on accurately understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of flood evolution and crop growth. Current evaluation methods are generally integrally or qualitatively based on statistic data or ex-post survey with less diagnosis into the process and dynamics of historical flood events. Therefore, a quantitative and spatial evaluation framework is presented in this study that integrates remote sensing imagery and hydraulic model simulation to facilitate the identification of historical flood characteristics that influence crop losses. Remote sensing imagery can capture the spatial variation of crop yields and yield losses from floods on a grid scale over large areas; however, it is incapable of providing spatial information regarding flood progress. Two-dimensional hydraulic model can simulate the dynamics of surface runoff and accomplish spatial and temporal quantification of flood characteristics on a grid scale over watersheds, i.e., flow velocity and flood duration. The methodological framework developed herein includes the following: (a) Vegetation indices for the critical period of crop growth from mid-high temporal and spatial remote sensing imagery in association with agricultural statistics data were used to develop empirical models to monitor the crop yield and evaluate yield losses from flood; (b) The two-dimensional hydraulic model coupled with the SCS-CN hydrologic model was employed to simulate the flood evolution process

  3. Adaptive flood risk management in urban areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mees, H.L.P.; Driessen, P.P.J.; Runhaar, H.A.C.

    2012-01-01

    In recent times a shift has occurred from traditional flood management focused on the prevention of flooding (reduction of the probability) only, to more adaptive strategies focused on the reduction of the impacts of floods as a means to improve the resilience of occupied flood plains to increased r

  4. Safety in the Chemical Laboratory: Flood Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollard, Bruce D.

    1983-01-01

    Describes events leading to a flood in the Wehr Chemistry Laboratory at Marquette University, discussing steps taken to minimize damage upon discovery. Analyzes the problem of flooding in the chemical laboratory and outlines seven steps of flood control: prevention; minimization; early detection; stopping the flood; evaluation; clean-up; and…

  5. Local Flood Action Groups: Governance And Resilience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forrest, Steven; Trell, Elen-Maarja; Woltjer, Johan; Macoun, Milan; Maier, Karel

    2015-01-01

    A diverse range of citizen groups focusing on flood risk management have been identified in several European countries. The paper discusses the role of flood action (citizen) groups in the context of flood resilience and will do this by analysing the UK and its diverse range of flood groups. These c

  6. Flood risk management in Italy: challenges and opportunities for the implementation of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, J.; Testella, F.; Bonaiuto, M.; Carrus, G.; De Dominicis, S.; Ganucci Cancellieri, U.; Firus, K.; Grifoni, P.

    2013-11-01

    Italy's recent history is punctuated with devastating flood disasters claiming high death toll and causing vast but underestimated economic, social and environmental damage. The responses to major flood and landslide disasters such as the Polesine (1951), Vajont (1963), Firenze (1966), Valtelina (1987), Piedmont (1994), Crotone (1996), Sarno (1998), Soverato (2000), and Piedmont (2000) events have contributed to shaping the country's flood risk governance. Insufficient resources and capacity, slow implementation of the (at that time) novel risk prevention and protection framework, embodied in the law 183/89 of 18 May 1989, increased the reliance on the response and recovery operations of the civil protection. As a result, the importance of the Civil Protection Mechanism and the relative body of norms and regulation developed rapidly in the 1990s. In the aftermath of the Sarno (1998) and Soverato (2000) disasters, the Department for Civil Protection (DCP) installed a network of advanced early warning and alerting centres, the cornerstones of Italy's preparedness for natural hazards and a best practice worth following. However, deep convective clouds, not uncommon in Italy, producing intense rainfall and rapidly developing localised floods still lead to considerable damage and loss of life that can only be reduced by stepping up the risk prevention efforts. The implementation of the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC) provides an opportunity to revise the model of flood risk governance and confront the shortcomings encountered during more than 20 yr of organised flood risk management. This brief communication offers joint recommendations towards this end from three projects funded by the 2nd CRUE ERA-NET (http://www.crue-eranet.net/) Funding Initiative: FREEMAN, IMRA and URFlood.

  7. Flood damage, vulnerability and risk perception - challenges for flood damage research

    OpenAIRE

    2005-01-01

    The current state-of-the-art in flood damage analysis mainly focuses on the economic evaluation of tangible flood effects. It is contended in this discussion paper that important economic, social and ecological aspects of flood-related vulnerabilities are neglected. It is a challenge for flood research to develop a wider perspective for flood damage evaluation.

  8. A Framework for Flood Risk Analysis and Benefit Assessment of Flood Control Measures in Urban Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chaochao; Cheng, Xiaotao; Li, Na; Du, Xiaohe; Yu, Qian; Kan, Guangyuan

    2016-08-05

    Flood risk analysis is more complex in urban areas than that in rural areas because of their closely packed buildings, different kinds of land uses, and large number of flood control works and drainage systems. The purpose of this paper is to propose a practical framework for flood risk analysis and benefit assessment of flood control measures in urban areas. Based on the concept of disaster risk triangle (hazard, vulnerability and exposure), a comprehensive analysis method and a general procedure were proposed for urban flood risk analysis. Urban Flood Simulation Model (UFSM) and Urban Flood Damage Assessment Model (UFDAM) were integrated to estimate the flood risk in the Pudong flood protection area (Shanghai, China). S-shaped functions were adopted to represent flood return period and damage (R-D) curves. The study results show that flood control works could significantly reduce the flood risk within the 66-year flood return period and the flood risk was reduced by 15.59%. However, the flood risk was only reduced by 7.06% when the flood return period exceeded 66-years. Hence, it is difficult to meet the increasing demands for flood control solely relying on structural measures. The R-D function is suitable to describe the changes of flood control capacity. This frame work can assess the flood risk reduction due to flood control measures, and provide crucial information for strategy development and planning adaptation.

  9. An early career researcher's perspective on presenting flood risk research to the media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Louise

    2017-04-01

    My research lies at the intersection of three disciplines: hydrology, climatology, and geomorphology, and focusses on understanding the drivers of changing flood hazards to improve flood projections. Because flooding has major impacts on people's lives, and flood losses are projected to continue to increase in future decades, attribution studies are readily picked up by the press. As an Early Career Researcher, I will share my own experiences in communicating flood-related research results (through university press releases, Twitter, blog posts, and interviews), and what I have learnt about the types of strategies that can be followed to increase research dissemination/outreach, and the "Attention Score" of individual papers. In terms of interacting with the media, I will also share some suggestions regarding the types of questions that often arise, as well as awareness strategies to avoid potential pitfalls, misunderstandings or misinterpretations.

  10. Driving into danger: Perception and communication of flash flood risk from a cultural perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, A.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Fryberg, S.

    2009-04-01

    Flood risk managers educate the public on the dangers of driving through flooded roadways, yet losses to life and property continue to occur. This study integrates cultural psychology and risk perception theory to explore how culture, psychological processes, and behavior influence one another. Flood risk managers in Tucson, Arizona collaborated in the development of a questionnaire mailed to local residents. Questions regarding levels of trust, self-efficacy, social autonomy, social incorporation, time perspective, and situational factors were analyzed with respect to whether respondents stated that they have or have not driven through a flooded roadway. Respondents' decisions are influenced by the presence of signs and barricades, passengers, risk of personal injury or damage to the vehicle, and the availability of flood-related information. The most influential factor is the prior successful crossing of other vehicles. The results illuminate complex interrelations among the cultural factors and provide considerations for future risk perception research.

  11. THE FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF FLASH FLOODS ON THE RIVERS IN THE LAND OF DORNA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MIHALCA Izabela Amalia

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods are extreme natural phenomena that determine numerous property damage and loss of human life on both global and local level. In order to highlight not only the frequency of occurrence of floods on the rivers in the Land of Dorna but also their effects on the community, we set ourselves to perform a secondary analysis of data provided by Siret River Basin Administration. As a result, one can observe that the highest frequency of occurrence of flash floods in the region of Dorna is in the spring. During the same period of time (from 1993 to 2003 there were recorded only significant property damages after the flash floods. At the end of this paper we suggested a series of coherent measures in order to combat the negative effects of flash floods.

  12. Urban flood risk assessment using sewer flooding databases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caradot, Nicolas; Granger, Damien; Chapgier, Jean; Cherqui, Frédéric; Chocat, Bernard

    2011-01-01

    Sustainable water management is a global challenge for the 21st century. One key aspect remains protection against urban flooding. The main objective is to ensure or maintain an adequate level of service for all inhabitants. However, level of service is still difficult to assess and the high-risk locations difficult to identify. In this article, we propose a methodology, which (i) allows water managers to measure the service provided by the urban drainage system with regard to protection against urban flooding; and (ii) helps stakeholders to determine effective strategies for improving the service provided. One key aspect of this work is to use a database of sewer flood event records to assess flood risk. Our methodology helps urban water managers to assess the risk of sewer flooding; this approach does not seek to predict flooding but rather to inform decision makers on the current level of risk and on actions which need to be taken to reduce the risk. This work is based on a comprehensive definition of risk, including territorial vulnerability and perceptions of urban water stakeholders. This paper presents the results and the methodological contributions from implementing the methodology on two case studies: the cities of Lyon and Mulhouse.

  13. Flood Progression Modelling and Impact Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mioc, Darka; Anton, François; Nickerson, B.

    People living in the lower valley of the St. John River, New Brunswick, Canada, frequently experience flooding when the river overflows its banks during spring ice melt and rain. To better prepare the population of New Brunswick for extreme flooding, we developed a new flood prediction model...... that computes floodplain polygons before the flood occurs. This allows emergency managers to access the impact of the flood before it occurs and make the early decisions for evacuation of the population and flood rescue. This research shows that the use of GIS and LiDAR technologies combined with hydrological...... modelling can significantly improve the decision making and visualization of flood impact needed for emergency planning and flood rescue. Furthermore, the 3D GIS application we developed for modelling flooded buildings and infrastructure provides a better platform for modelling and visualizing flood...

  14. Smoky River coal flood risk mapping study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-06-01

    The Canada-Alberta Flood Damage Reduction Program (FDRP) is designed to reduce flood damage by identifying areas susceptible to flooding and by encouraging application of suitable land use planning, zoning, and flood preparedness and proofing. The purpose of this study is to define flood risk and floodway limits along the Smoky River near the former Smoky River Coal (SRC) plant. Alberta Energy has been responsible for the site since the mine and plant closed in 2000. The study describes flooding history, available data, features of the river and valley, calculation of flood levels, and floodway determination, and includes flood risk maps. The HEC-RAS program is used for the calculations. The flood risk area was calculated using the 1:100 year return period flood as the hydrological event. 7 refs., 11 figs., 7 tabs., 3 apps.

  15. Flood Resilient Systems and their Application for Flood Resilient Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manojlovic, N.; Gabalda, V.; Antanaskovic, D.; Gershovich, I.; Pasche, E.

    2012-04-01

    Following the paradigm shift in flood management from traditional to more integrated approaches, and considering the uncertainties of future development due to drivers such as climate change, one of the main emerging tasks of flood managers becomes the development of (flood) resilient cities. It can be achieved by application of non-structural - flood resilience measures, summarised in the 4As: assistance, alleviation, awareness and avoidance (FIAC, 2007). As a part of this strategy, the key aspect of development of resilient cities - resilient built environment can be reached by efficient application of Flood Resilience Technology (FReT) and its meaningful combination into flood resilient systems (FRS). FRS are given as [an interconnecting network of FReT which facilitates resilience (including both restorative and adaptive capacity) to flooding, addressing physical and social systems and considering different flood typologies] (SMARTeST, http://www.floodresilience.eu/). Applying the system approach (e.g. Zevenbergen, 2008), FRS can be developed at different scales from the building to the city level. Still, a matter of research is a method to define and systematise different FRS crossing those scales. Further, the decision on which resilient system is to be applied for the given conditions and given scale is a complex task, calling for utilisation of decision support tools. This process of decision-making should follow the steps of flood risk assessment (1) and development of a flood resilience plan (2) (Manojlovic et al, 2009). The key problem in (2) is how to match the input parameters that describe physical&social system and flood typology to the appropriate flood resilient system. Additionally, an open issue is how to integrate the advances in FReT and findings on its efficiency into decision support tools. This paper presents a way to define, systematise and make decisions on FRS at different scales of an urban system developed within the 7th FP Project

  16. Flood Fighting Products Research Facility

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — A wave research basin at the ERDC Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory has been modified specifically for testing of temporary, barrier-type, flood fighting products....

  17. Cyber surveillance for flood disasters

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lo, Shi-Wei; Wu, Jyh-Horng; Lin, Fang-Pang; Hsu, Ching-Han

    2015-01-01

    ... river areas and sections. Therefore, in this paper, we propose an easy method to automatically monitor the flood object of a specific area, based on the currently widely used remote cyber surveillance systems and image...

  18. Flash floods: forecasting and warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sene, Kevin

    2013-01-01

    .... Floods of this type are often characterised by fast flowing deep water and a high debris content which - combined with the short lead time available for warnings - add to the risk to people and property...

  19. FEMA Flood Insurance Studies Inventory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Kansas Data Access and Support Center — This digital data set provides an inventory of Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Flood Insurance Studies (FIS) that have been conducted for communities and...

  20. Flash Flood Hazard Mapping Using Satellite Images and GIS Tools: A case study of Najran City, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)

    OpenAIRE

    Ismail Elkhrachy

    2015-01-01

    Flash flood in the cities led to high levels of water in the streets and roads, causing many problems such as bridge collapse, building damage and traffic problems. It is impossible to avoid risks of floods or prevent their occurrence, however it is plausible to work on the reduction of their effects and to reduce the losses which they may cause. Flash flood mapping to identify sites in high risk flood zones is one of the powerful tools for this purpose. Mapping flash flood will be beneficial...

  1. The role of short-term memory impairment in nonword repetition, real word repetition, and nonword decoding: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Beate

    2017-09-21

    In a companion study, adults with dyslexia and adults with a probable history of childhood apraxia of speech showed evidence of difficulty with processing sequential information during nonword repetition, multisyllabic real word repetition and nonword decoding. Results suggested that some errors arose in visual encoding during nonword reading, all levels of processing but especially short-term memory storage/retrieval during nonword repetition, and motor planning and programming during complex real word repetition. To further investigate the role of short-term memory, a participant with short-term memory impairment (MI) was recruited. MI was confirmed with poor performance during a sentence repetition and three nonword repetition tasks, all of which have a high short-term memory load, whereas typical performance was observed during tests of reading, spelling, and static verbal knowledge, all with low short-term memory loads. Experimental results show error-free performance during multisyllabic real word repetition but high counts of sequence errors, especially migrations and assimilations, during nonword repetition, supporting short-term memory as a locus of sequential processing deficit during nonword repetition. Results are also consistent with the hypothesis that during complex real word repetition, short-term memory is bypassed as the word is recognized and retrieved from long-term memory prior to producing the word.

  2. A Collaborative Approach to Flood Early Warning Systems In South East Westmoreland, Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyman, T. A.

    2015-12-01

    Jamaica is prone to climatic, tectonic and technological hazards, with climatic hazards being the most prevalent. Specifically, flood events from cyclonic activity are the most common and widespread. Jamaica also experiences frequent flash floods, usually with insufficient lead time to enact efficient and targeted responses. On average, there is at least one disastrous flood every four years in Jamaica, and from 1800 to 2003 fifty-four major floods took place, causing 273 fatalities and economic losses of over US2 billion. Notably, the 1979 flood event in Western Jamaica caused 41 deaths and economic losses of US 27 Million, and which also has a 50 year return period. To date, no Flood Warning System exists in Western Jamaica and there are limited rain and river gauges. Additionally, responses to climatic events within South-East Westmoreland communities are ad hoc, with little coordination. Many of the hazard responses have been reactive and some stakeholders have delayed to their detriment.[1] The use of Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) to address such challenges is thus an option being considered by the community associations. The Rio Cobre FEWS in the parish of St. Catherine serves as a best practice example of community driven flood warning systems in Jamaica. This is because of the collaborative approach to flood risk, strengthened by institutional arrangements between the Meteorological Service, Water Resources Authority, Office of Disaster Management, Scientists and residents of the surrounding communities. The Community Associations in South-East Westmoreland are thus desirous of implementing a FEWS similar to the Rio Cobre FEWS. This paper thus aims to analyse the implementation process in terms of key stakeholders involved, governance approach and the socio-economic impact of a collaborative approach on infrastructure and livelihoods, in the case of future flooding events. [1] (especially in the case of Hurricane Ivan 2004)

  3. The influence of antecedent conditions on flood risk in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischiniotis, Konstantinos; van den Hurk, Bart; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Traditionally, flood risk management has focused on long-term flood protection measures. However, many countries are often not able to afford hard infrastructure that provides sufficient safety levels due to the high investment costs. As a consequence, they rely more on post disaster response and timely warning systems. Most early warning systems have predominantly focused on precipitation as the main predictive factor, having usually lead times of hours or days. However, other variables could also play a role. For instance, anomalous positive water storage, soil saturation and evapotranspiration are physical factors that may influence the length of the flood build-up period. This period can vary from some days to several months before the event and it is particularly important in flood risk management since longer flood warning lead times during this period could result in better flood preparation actions. This study addresses how the antecedent conditions of historical reported flood events over the period 1980 to 2010 in sub-Saharan Africa relate to flood generation. The seasonal-scale conditions are reflected in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which is calculated using monthly precipitation and temperature data and accounts for the wetness/dryness of an area. Antecedent conditions are separated into a) a short term 'weather-scale' period (0-7 days) and b) a 'seasonal-scale' period (up to 6 months) before the flood event in such a way that they do not overlap. Total 7-day precipitation, which is based on daily meteorological data, was used to evaluate the short-term weather-scale conditions. Using a pair of coordinates, derived from the NatCatSERVICE database on global flood losses, each flood event is positioned on a 0.5°x 0.5° grid cell. The antecedent SPEI conditions of the two periods and their joint influence in flood generation are compared to the same period conditions of the other years of the dataset. First results

  4. Coupling Radar Rainfall Estimation and Hydrological Modelling For Flash-flood Hazard Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borga, M.; Creutin, J. D.

    Flood risk mitigation is accomplished through managing either or both the hazard and vulnerability. Flood hazard may be reduced through structural measures which alter the frequency of flood levels in the area. The vulnerability of a community to flood loss can be mitigated through changing or regulating land use and through flood warning and effective emergency response. When dealing with flash-flood hazard, it is gener- ally accepted that the most effective way (and in many instances the only affordable in a sustainable perspective) to mitigate the risk is by reducing the vulnerability of the involved communities, in particular by implementing flood warning systems and community self-help programs. However, both the inherent characteristics of the at- mospheric and hydrologic processes involved in flash-flooding and the changing soci- etal needs provide a tremendous challenge to traditional flood forecasting and warning concepts. In fact, the targets of these systems are traditionally localised like urbanised sectors or hydraulic structures. Given the small spatial scale that characterises flash floods and the development of dispersed urbanisation, transportation, green tourism and water sports, human lives and property are exposed to flash flood risk in a scat- tered manner. This must be taken into consideration in flash flood warning strategies and the investigated region should be considered as a whole and every section of the drainage network as a potential target for hydrological warnings. Radar technology offers the potential to provide information describing rain intensities almost contin- uously in time and space. Recent research results indicate that coupling radar infor- mation to distributed hydrologic modelling can provide hydrologic forecasts at all potentially flooded points of a region. Nevertheless, very few flood warning services use radar data more than on a qualitative basis. After a short review of current under- standing in this area, two

  5. A phonetic approach to consonant repetition in early words.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Namhee; Davis, Barbara L

    2015-08-01

    The goal of this study was to evaluate movement-based principles for understanding early speech output patterns. Consonant repetition patterns within children's actual productions of word forms were analyzed using spontaneous speech data from 10 typically developing American-English learning children between 12 and 36 months of age. Place of articulation, word level patterns, and developmental trends in CVC and CVCV repeated word forms were evaluated. Labial and coronal place repetitions dominated. Regressive repetition (e.g., [gag] for "dog") occurred frequently in CVC but not in CVCV word forms. Consonant repetition decreased over time. However, the children produced sound types available reported as being within young children's production system capabilities in consonant repetitions in all time periods. Findings suggest that a movement-based approach can provide a framework for comprehensively characterizing consonant place repetition patterns in early speech development.

  6. NASA's Support to Flood Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, D. S.; Murray, J. J.; Stough, T.

    2016-12-01

    The extent of flood and inundation, the impacts on people and infrastructure, and generally the situational awareness on all scales for decision making are areas where NASA is mobilizing scientific results, advanced sensing and technologies, experts and partnerships to support response. NASA has targeted mature application science and ready technology for flood and inundation monitoring and assessment. This includes supporting timely data management and product dissemination with users and partners. Requirements are captured in the form of science-area questions, while solutions measure readiness for use by considering standard tools and approaches that make information more accessible, interoperable, understandable and reliable. The program collaborates with capacity building and areas of education and outreach needed to create and leverage non-traditional partnerships in transdisciplinary areas including socio-economic practice, preparedness and resilience assessment, early warning and forecast response, and emergency management, relief and recovery. The program outcomes also seek alignment with and support to global and community priorities related to water resources and food security. This presentation will examine the achievements of individual projects and the challenges and opportunities of more comprehensive and collaborative teams behind NASA's response to global flooding. Examples from recent event mobilization will be reviewed including to the serious of domestic floods across the south and Midwest United States throughout 2015 and 2016. Progress on the combined use of optical, microwave and SAR remote sensing measurements, topographic and geodetic data and mapping, data sharing practices will be reviewed. Other response case studies will examine global flood events monitored, characterized and supported in various boundary regions and nations. Achievements and future plans will be described for capabilities including global flood modeling, near real

  7. A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

    2017-04-01

    The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for

  8. September 2013 Storm and Flood Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walterscheid, J. C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-12-21

    Between September 10 and 17, 2013, New Mexico and Colorado received a historically large amount of precipitation (Figure 1). This report assesses the damage caused by flooding along with estimated costs to repair the damage at Los Alamos National Laboratory (the Laboratory) on the Pajarito Plateau. Los Alamos County, New Mexico, received between 200% and 600% of the normal precipitation for this time period (Figure 2), and the Laboratory received approximately 450% percent of its average precipitation for September (Figure 3). As a result, the Laboratory was inundated with rain, including the extremely large, greater-than-1000-yr return period event that occurred between September 12 and 13 (Table 1). With saturated antecedent soil conditions from the September 10 storm, when the September 12 to September 13 storm hit, the flooding was disastrous to the Laboratory’s environmental infrastructure, including access roads, gage stations, watershed controls, control measures installed under the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Permit (hereafter, the Individual Permit), and groundwater monitoring wells (Figures 4 through 21). From September 16 to October 1, 2013, the Laboratory completed field assessments of environmental infrastructure and generated descriptions and estimates of the damage, which are presented in spreadsheets in Attachments 1 to 4 of this report. Section 2 of this report contains damage assessments by watershed, including access roads, gage stations, watershed controls, and control measures installed under the Individual Permit. Section 3 contains damage assessments of monitoring wells by the groundwater monitoring groups as established in the Interim Facility-Wide Groundwater Monitoring Plan for Monitoring Year 2014. Section 4 addresses damage and loss of automated samplers. Section 5 addresses sediment sampling needs, and Section 6 is the summary of estimated recovery costs from the significant rain and flooding during September 2013.

  9. Flooding Effect on Earth Walls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meysam Banimahd

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Earth building is a sustainable, environmentally friendly and economical method of construction that has been used worldwide for many centuries. For the past three decades, earth has seen a revival as a building material for a modern construction method due to its benefits in terms of low carbon content, low cost and energy involved during construction, as well as the fact that it is a sustainable technology of building. Climate change is influencing precipitation levels and patterns around the world, and as a consequence, flood risk is increasing rapidly. When flooding occurs, earth buildings are exposed to water by submersion, causing an increase in the degree of saturation of the earth structures and therefore a decrease of the suction between particles. This study investigated the effect of cycles of flooding (consecutive events of flooding followed by dry periods on earth walls. A series of characterization tests were carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical properties of the studied earth material. In a second stage, Flooding Simulation Tests (FST were performed to explore the earth walls’ response to repeated flooding events. The results obtained for the tested earth wall/samples with reinforced material (straw reveal hydraulic hysteresis when wall/samples are subject to cycles of wetting and drying.

  10. Extreme flooding tolerance in Rorippa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akman, Melis; Bhikharie, Amit; Mustroph, Angelika; Sasidharan, Rashmi

    2014-01-01

    Low oxygen stress imposed by floods creates a strong selection force shaping plant ecosystems in flood-prone areas. Plants inhabiting these environments adopt various adaptations and survival strategies to cope with increasing water depths. Two Rorippa species, R. sylvestris and R. amphibia that grow in naturally flooded areas, have high submergence tolerance achieved by the so-called quiescence and escape strategies, respectively. In order to dissect the molecular mechanisms involved in these strategies, we investigated submergence-induced changes in gene expression in flooded roots of Rorippa species. There was a higher induction of glycolysis and fermentation genes and faster carbohydrate reduction in R. amphibia, indicating a higher demand for energy potentially leading to faster mortality by starvation. Moreover, R. sylvestris showed induction of genes improving submergence tolerance, potentially enhancing survival in prolonged floods. Additionally, we compared transcript profiles of these 2 tolerant species to relatively intolerant Arabidopsis and found that only Rorippa species induced various inorganic pyrophosphate dependent genes, alternatives to ATP demanding pathways, thereby conserving energy, and potentially explaining the difference in flooding survival between Rorippa and Arabidopsis.

  11. FLOODING ATTACK AWARE SECURE AODV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Madhavi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing security in a Mobile Ad hoc Network (MANET is a challenging task due to its inherent nature. Flooding is a type of Denial of Service (DoS attack in MANET. Intentional flooding may lead to disturbances in the networking operation. This kind of attack consumes battery power, storage space and bandwidth. Flooding the excessive number of packets may degrade the performance of the network. This study considers hello flooding attack. As the hello packets are continuously flooded by the malicious node, the neighbor node is not able to process other packets. The functioning of the legitimate node is diverted and destroys the networking operation. Absence of hello packet during the periodical hello interval may lead to wrong assumption that the neighbor node has moved away. So one of the intermediate neighbor nodes sends Route Error (RERR message and the source node reinitiates the route discovery process. In a random fashion the hello interval values are changed and convey this information to other nodes in the network in a secured manner. This study identifies and prevents the flooding attack. This methodology considers the performance parameters such as packet delivery ratio, delay and throughput. This algorithm is implemented in Secure AODV and tested in ad hoc environment. The result of the proposed algorithm decreases the control overhead by 2%.

  12. Scales of Natural Flood Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Alex; Quinn, Paul; Owen, Gareth; Hetherington, David; Piedra Lara, Miguel; O'Donnell, Greg

    2016-04-01

    The scientific field of Natural flood Management (NFM) is receiving much attention and is now widely seen as a valid solution to sustainably manage flood risk whilst offering significant multiple benefits. However, few examples exist looking at NFM on a large scale (>10km2). Well-implemented NFM has the effect of restoring more natural catchment hydrological and sedimentological processes, which in turn can have significant flood risk and WFD benefits for catchment waterbodies. These catchment scale improvements in-turn allow more 'natural' processes to be returned to rivers and streams, creating a more resilient system. Although certain NFM interventions may appear distant and disconnected from main stem waterbodies, they will undoubtedly be contributing to WFD at the catchment waterbody scale. This paper offers examples of NFM, and explains how they can be maximised through practical design across many scales (from feature up to the whole catchment). New tools to assist in the selection of measures and their location, and to appreciate firstly, the flooding benefit at the local catchment scale and then show a Flood Impact Model that can best reflect the impacts of local changes further downstream. The tools will be discussed in the context of our most recent experiences on NFM projects including river catchments in the north east of England and in Scotland. This work has encouraged a more integrated approach to flood management planning that can use both traditional and novel NFM strategies in an effective and convincing way.

  13. Characterizing the impacts of water resources infrastructure, humans, and hydrologic nonstationarity on changes in flood risk across the Himalaya region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tullos, D. D.

    2014-12-01

    As flood control infrastructure reaches its design life, and climate change, population growth, and urban migration increase flood risk, the historical paradigm of store-then-release floodwaters behind rigid infrastructure is of decreasing physical and socioeconomic value. Instead, a new paradigm of sustainable flood management is emerging, which can be framed in the context of three elements that can contribute to and/or mitigate flood risk: 1) water resources infrastructure, 2) policies and socioeconomics, and 3) changing climates and land use. In this presentation, I present the results of analysis on the role of these three elements in contributing to flood risk of the Sutlej River (India) and the Koshi River (Nepal) basins for six historical flood events. The Himalaya region was selected based on the a) increasing intensity of monsoonal rains, b) increasing prevalence of glacial lake outburst floods, c) water resources management that achieves short-term development goals but lacks long-term sustainability, and d) other socio-economic, environmental, and geopolitical factors. I develop and apply a flood risk management framework that is based on metrics for characterizing the losses associated with the three elements contributing to major floods in the Himalaya region. Derived from a variety of data sources, results highlight how, across different hydrogeologic settings and various flood magnitudes, the largest influences on high flood losses are associated with inflexible water resources infrastructure and inappropriate development and flood management policies. Particularly for the most destructive events, which are generally associated with landslides and other natural hazards in this region, the effectiveness of some types of traditional and inflexible flood management infrastructure, including large dams and levees, is limited. As opposed to the probability of a particular flood event, findings illustrate the importance of the damages side of the flood

  14. 工程防洪体系洪灾风险计算模型研究%Study on Flood Risk Calculation Model of Structural Flood Control System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈艳; 陈进

    2013-01-01

    利用建立的工程防洪体系洪水风险分析模型,通过对简单的线性工程防洪系统进行分析,验证了洪水演进过程中相关水利工程对于洪灾风险的影响,揭示了不同水工结构可靠度的变化对于区域洪灾风险的影响。结果表明:①利用水库多蓄滞洪水并减小下泄流量虽然增大了大坝的洪水风险,但通过合理设置蓄滞洪方案可以有效地减小整个防洪体系的洪水风险值;②在防治区域洪水的过程中,可以通过人为降低上游经济损失相对较小堤段的可靠性,在合理部位设置蓄滞洪区来降低整个防洪体系的防洪风险;③适当提高重点堤段的防洪安全性,可有效降低整个防洪体系的防洪风险。%The simple linearity engineering flood control system was analyzed by using the established structural flood control system flood risk anal-ysis model. By the analysis result and the effect of water project,which was related to flood routing process on flood risk was verified. And the effect of reliability variations among different hydraulic structures on regional flood risk was revealed. The results show that:a)Although flood risk of the dam is increased by storing and detaining more flood and reducing discharge volume by using reservoir,the entire flood control system risk value is decreased effectively by reasonable storing floodwater and flood detention. b)During the process of regional flood prevention,the entire flood control system risk is decreased by decreasing reliability section of the dike on which the economic loss is relatively smaller upstream artificially and building diversion and storage works in the rational sites. c)The entire flood control system risk can be decreased effectively by improving flood prevention security of the key section appropriately.

  15. What can we learn from the deadly flash floods? Post Event Review Capability (PERC) analysis of the Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg flood events in Summer 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szoenyi, Michael

    2017-04-01

    In May/June 2016, stationary low pressure systems brought intense rainfall with record-braking intensities of well above 100 mm rain in few hours locally in the southern states of Baden-Wurttemberg and Bavaria, Germany. In steep terrains, small channels and creeks became devastating torrents impacting, among others, the villages of Simbach/Inn, Schwäbisch-Gmünd and Braunsbach. Just few days prior, France had also seen devastating rainfall and flooding. Damage in Germany alone is estimated at 2.8 M USD, of which less than 50% are insured. The loss of life was significant, with 18 fatalities reported across the events. This new forensic event analysis as part of Zurich's Post Event Review Capability (PERC) investigates the flash flood events following these record rainfalls in Southern Germany and tries to answer the following questions holistically, across the five capitals (5C) and the full disaster risk management (DRM) cycle, which are key to understanding how to become more resilient to such flood events: - Why have these intense rainfall events led to such devastating consequences? The EU Floods directive and its implementation in the various member states, as well as the 2002 and 2013 Germany floods, have focused on larger rivers and the main asset concentration. The pathway and mechanism of the 2016 floods are very different and need to be better understood. Flash floods and surface flooding may need to become the new focus and be much better communicated to people at risk, as the awareness for such perils has been identified as low. - How can the prevalence for such flash floods be better identified and mapped? Research indicated that affected people and decision makers alike attribute the occurrence of such flash floods as arbitrary, but we argue that hotspots can and must be identified based on an overlay of rainfall intensity maps, topography leading to flash flood processes, and vulnerable assets. In Germany, there are currently no comprehensive hazard

  16. Flood-related work disruption and poor health outcomes among university students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peek-Asa, Corinne; Ramirez, Marizen; Young, Tracy; Cao, YanYan

    2012-12-01

    Globally, floods are the most common and among the most devastating of natural disasters. Natural disasters such as floods impact local businesses, increasing local unemployment by up to 8.2%. Previous research has linked individual losses from disasters with symptoms such as posttraumatic stress disorder. However, little is known about the impact of work disruption and job loss on post-disaster psychological symptoms. University students, who are often living far away from family support structures and have limited resources, may be particularly vulnerable. This study examines student psychological health following a large flood at a university. Students who experienced flood-related job loss or disruption had a higher proportion of psychological symptoms than those who did not experience job loss or disruption, controlling for individual loss such as injury, home loss or evacuation. On June 8, 2008, a major flood affected seven US Midwestern states. A total of two dozen people were killed and 148 injured, although no deaths or serious injuries were reported in the population used for this study. At the study university, operations were closed for one week, and 20 buildings were severely damaged. A cross-sectional survey of all students enrolled during the semester of the flood was conducted. Students were sent an online survey six weeks after the flood. In addition to questions about damage to their homes, the survey asked students if their work was disrupted because of the floods. Symptoms of PTSD were measured through the modified Child PTSD Symptom Scale. Of the 1,231 responding students with complete surveys, 667 (54.2%) reported that their work was disrupted due to the floods. Controlling for gender, ethnicity, grade, and damage to the student's home, students reporting work disruption were more than four times more likely to report PTSD symptoms (95% CI, 2.5-8.2). Work disruption was independently associated with decreases in general mental and physical

  17. A new approach for river flood extent delineation in rural and urban areas combining RADARSAT-2 imagery and flood recurrence interval data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanguy, Marion; Bernier, Monique; Chokmani, Karem

    2015-04-01

    When a flood hits an inhabited area, managers and services responsible for public safety need precise, reliable and up to date maps of the areas affected by the flood, in order to quickly roll out and to coordinate the adequate intervention and assistance plans required to limit the human and material damages caused by the disaster. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors are now considered as one of the most adapted tool for flood detection and mapping in a context of crisis management. Indeed, due to their capacity to acquire data night and day, in almost all meteorological conditions, SAR sensors allow the acquisition of synoptic but detailed views of the areas affected by the flood, even during the active phases of the event. Moreover, new generation sensors such as RADARSAT-2, TerraSAR-X, COSMO-SkyMed, are providing very high resolution images of the disaster (down to 1m ground resolution). Further, critical improvements have been made on the temporal repetitivity of acquisitions and on data availability, through the development of satellite constellations (i.e the four COSMO-Skymed or the Sentinel-1A and 1B satellites) and thanks to the implementation of the International Charter "Space and Major Disasters", which guarantees high priority images acquisition and delivery with 4 to 12 hours. If detection of open water flooded areas is relatively straightforward with SAR imagery, flood detection in built-up areas is often associated with important issues. Indeed, because of the side looking geometry of the SAR sensors, structures such as tall vegetation and structures parallel to the satellite direction of travel may produce shadow and layover effects, leading to important over and under-detections of flooded pixels. Besides, the numerous permanent water-surfaces like radar response areas present in built-up environments, such as parking lots, roads etc., may be mixed up with flooded areas, resulting in substantial inaccuracies in the final flood map. In spite of

  18. Stakeholder views on flood risk management in Hungary's Upper Tisza Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vari, Anna; Linnerooth-Bayer, Joanne; Ferencz, Zoltan

    2003-06-01

    With escalating costs of flood mitigation and relief, a challenge for the Hungarian government is to develop a flood mitigation and insurance/relief system that is viewed as efficient and fair by the many stakeholders involved. To aid policymakers in this task, this article reports on a recent study to elicit stakeholder views on flood risk management in the Upper Tisza Basin, including views on appropriate means of reducing losses and for transferring the residual losses from the direct victims to taxpayers or an insurance pool. This study is part of a project to develop an integrated approach to flood risk management coordinated by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in collaboration with Swedish and Hungarian researchers. The discussion begins by describing the background of flood risk management problems in the Upper Tisza Basin. The results of interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders and the results of a public survey eliciting views on flood risk management are reported. The final section draws conclusions on incorporating stakeholder views into a flood risk management model, which will be used to illustrate policy paths at an upcoming stakeholder workshop. The conclusions are also of direct interest to Hungarian policymakers.

  19. Estimating the benefits of single value and probability forecasting for flood warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Verkade

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood risk can be reduced by means of flood forecasting, warning and response systems (FFWRS. These systems include a forecasting sub-system which is imperfect, meaning that inherent uncertainties in hydrological forecasts may result in false alarms and missed events. This forecasting uncertainty decreases the potential reduction of flood risk, but is seldom accounted for in estimates of the benefits of FFWRSs. In the present paper, a method to estimate the benefits of (imperfect FFWRSs in reducing flood risk is presented. The method is based on a hydro-economic model of expected annual damage (EAD due to flooding, combined with the concept of Relative Economic Value (REV. The estimated benefits include not only the reduction of flood losses due to a warning response, but also consider the costs of the warning response itself, as well as the costs associated with forecasting uncertainty. The method allows for estimation of the benefits of FFWRSs that use either deterministic or probabilistic forecasts. Through application to a case study, it is shown that FFWRSs using a probabilistic forecast have the potential to realise higher benefits at all lead-times. However, it is also shown that provision of warning at increasing lead-time does not necessarily lead to an increasing reduction of flood risk, but rather that an optimal lead-time at which warnings are provided can be established as a function of forecast uncertainty and the cost-loss ratio of the user receiving and responding to the warning.

  20. A review of neuroimaging findings in repetitive brain trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerte, Inga K; Lin, Alexander P; Willems, Anna; Muehlmann, Marc; Hufschmidt, Jakob; Coleman, Michael J; Green, Isobel; Liao, Huijun; Tate, David F; Wilde, Elisabeth A; Pasternak, Ofer; Bouix, Sylvain; Rathi, Yogesh; Bigler, Erin D; Stern, Robert A; Shenton, Martha E

    2015-05-01

    Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disease confirmed at postmortem. Those at highest risk are professional athletes who participate in contact sports and military personnel who are exposed to repetitive blast events. All neuropathologically confirmed CTE cases, to date, have had a history of repetitive head impacts. This suggests that repetitive head impacts may be necessary for the initiation of the pathogenetic cascade that, in some cases, leads to CTE. Importantly, while all CTE appears to result from repetitive brain trauma, not all repetitive brain trauma results in CTE. Magnetic resonance imaging has great potential for understanding better the underlying mechanisms of repetitive brain trauma. In this review, we provide an overview of advanced imaging techniques currently used to investigate brain anomalies. We also provide an overview of neuroimaging findings in those exposed to repetitive head impacts in the acute/subacute and chronic phase of injury and in more neurodegenerative phases of injury, as well as in military personnel exposed to repetitive head impacts. Finally, we discuss future directions for research that will likely lead to a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms separating those who recover from repetitive brain trauma vs. those who go on to develop CTE.

  1. A MODIS-based automated flood monitoring system for southeast asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahamed, A.; Bolten, J. D.

    2017-09-01

    Flood disasters in Southeast Asia result in significant loss of life and economic damage. Remote sensing information systems designed to spatially and temporally monitor floods can help governments and international agencies formulate effective disaster response strategies during a flood and ultimately alleviate impacts to population, infrastructure, and agriculture. Recent destructive flood events in the Lower Mekong River Basin occurred in 2000, 2011, 2013, and 2016 (http://ffw.mrcmekong.org/historical_rec.htm, April 24, 2017). The large spatial distribution of flooded areas and lack of proper gauge data in the region makes accurate monitoring and assessment of impacts of floods difficult. Here, we discuss the utility of applying satellite-based Earth observations for improving flood inundation monitoring over the flood-prone Lower Mekong River Basin. We present a methodology for determining near real-time surface water extent associated with current and historic flood events by training surface water classifiers from 8-day, 250-m Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data spanning the length of the MODIS satellite record. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signature of permanent water bodies (MOD44W; Carroll et al., 2009) is used to train surface water classifiers which are applied to a time period of interest. From this, an operational nowcast flood detection component is produced using twice daily imagery acquired at 3-h latency which performs image compositing routines to minimize cloud cover. Case studies and accuracy assessments against radar-based observations for historic flood events are presented. The customizable system has been transferred to regional organizations and near real-time derived surface water products are made available through a web interface platform. Results highlight the potential of near real-time observation and impact assessment systems to serve as effective decision support tools for governments

  2. Phosphorus Dynamics in Long-Term Flooded, Drained, and Reflooded Soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Tian

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In flooded areas, soils are often exposed to standing water and subsequent drainage, thus over fertilization can release excess phosphorus (P into surface water and groundwater. To investigate P release and transformation processes in flooded alkaline soils, wheat-growing soil and vegetable-growing soil were selected. We flooded-drained-reflooded two soils for 35 d, then drained the soils, and 10 d later reflooded the soils for 17 d. Dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP, soil inorganic P fractions, Olsen P, pH, and Eh in floodwater and pore water were analyzed. The wheat-growing soil had significantly higher floodwater DRP concentrations than vegetable-growing soil, and floodwater DRP in both soils decreased with the number of flooding days. During the reflooding period, DRP in overlying floodwater from both soils was less than 0.87 mg/L, which was 3–25 times less than that during the flooding period. Regardless of flooding or reflooding, pore water DRP decreased with flooding days. The highest concentration of pore water DRP observed at a 5-cm depth. Under the effect of fertilizing and flooding, the risk of vertical P movement in 10–50 cm was enhanced. P diffusion occurred from the top to the bottom of the soils. After flooding, Al-P increased in both soils, and Fe-P, O-P, Ca2-P decreased, while Fe-P, Al-P, and O-P increased after reflooding, When Olsen P in the vegetable-growing soil exceeded 180.7 mg/kg and Olsen P in the wheat-growing soil exceeded 40.8 mg/kg, the concentration of DRP in pore water increased significantly. Our results showed that changes in floodwater and pore water DRP concentrations, soil inorganic P fractions, and Olsen P are significantly affected by fertilizing and flooding; therefore, careful fertilizer management should be employed on flooded soils to avoid excess P loss.

  3. Missouri River Flood 2011 Vulnerabilities Assessment Report. Volume 2 - Technical Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    losses from disasters, such as floods. Section 2: Background 7 Figure 3. Potential Flood Area WYOMING Missouri River Pot.,m.l Rood ...erosion control demonstration program aimed at promoting lower cost erosion control techniques . From 1978 through 1982 the Omaha District constructed 29...projects were demonstrations of bio-stabilization techniques in McCone County, Montana and the other involved erosion control and river training

  4. Long-term socioeconomic impacts of flooding in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.

    2013-05-01

    Natural disasters lead to myriad negative impacts upon society, causing loss of life, property, and income. Among disasters, floods annually affect the most people, and lead to widespread negative outcomes, particularly in developing countries. While immediate effects of disasters are readily observed, long-term socioeconomic effects have received little attention. Recent work in development economics finds that environmental exposure in early life can have negative impacts upon later outcomes in health, education, and labor markets. Such research is problematic for disasters, however, as objective measurements of hazard exposure are difficult to obtain. This study develops a remote sensing method to detect flooding in Bangladesh, one of the most flood-prone countries, using MODIS 8-day composite data. This approach addresses one of the main problems in the literature on the social impacts of disasters by deriving an objective measure rather than using self-reported damages. Flood data from 2000-2012 is matched to geolocated social surveys conducted by the Bangladesh government to identify impacts of exposure to floods at critical periods of life. While flooding is noted to be a natural and important part of ecosystem functioning in Bangladesh, we aim to understand the impacts of a flood of greater than normal magnitude or abnormal timing to identify the effects on human capital formation. We find that an increase in flooding of one standard deviation (SD) above the mean in the birth month leads to a 3% increase in stunting (2 SD below cohort height). This has implications for physical and cognitive development, shown elsewhere to persist to adulthood. We find that children from households that are exposed to floods while in elementary school are more likely to drop out. Other impacts will be identified in the course of this research. The stated impacts suggest that the long-term health and economic fortunes of the rural poor in Bangladesh are significantly

  5. Repetitive control of electrically driven robot manipulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fateh, Mohammad Mehdi; Ahsani Tehrani, Hojjat; Karbassi, Seyed Mehdi

    2013-04-01

    This article presents a novel robust discrete repetitive control of electrically driven robot manipulators for tracking of a periodic trajectory. We propose a novel model, which presents the highly non-linear dynamics of robot manipulator in the form of linear discrete-time time-varying system. Based on the proposed model, we develop a two-term control law. The first term is an ordinary time-optimal and minimum-norm (TOMN) control by employing parametric controllers to guarantee stability. The second term is a novel robust control to improve the control performance in the face of uncertainties. The robust control estimates and compensates uncertainties including the parametric uncertainty, unmodelled dynamics and external disturbances. Performance of the proposed method is compared with two discrete methods, namely the TOMN control and an adaptive iterative learning (AIL) control. Simulation results confirm superiority of the proposed method in terms of the convergence speed and precision.

  6. Studies of the uncanny: the repetition factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Teitelroit Martins

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Freud’s essay The Uncanny (Das Unheimliche offers many indications for the comprehension of an aesthetics of the uncanny which deserve to be explored. Nonetheless, a concept traverses it from beginning to end: the return – which enables its reading under the light of Beyond the pleasure principle, written along the same span of time. Emphasis is given to the uncanny in the sense of repetition of the different – a paradox in terms, like the strangely familiar uncanny. In order to test the validity of an aesthetic reading under this perspective, follows an analysis of the brief short story “A terceira margem do rio” (“The third margin of the river”, by Guimarães Rosa.

  7. Object color affects identification and repetition priming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uttl, Bob; Graf, Peter; Santacruz, Pilar

    2006-10-01

    We investigated the influence of color on the identification of both non-studied and studied objects. Participants studied black and white and color photos of common objects and memory was assessed with an identification test. Consistent with our meta-analysis of prior research, we found that objects were easier to identify from color than from black and white photos. We also found substantial priming in all conditions, and study-to-test changes in an object's color reduced the magnitude of priming. Color-specific priming effects were large for color-complex objects, but minimal for color-simple objects. The pattern and magnitude of priming effects was not influenced either by the extent to which an object always appears in the same color (i.e., whether a color is symptomatic of an object) or by the object's origin (natural versus fabricated). We discuss the implications of our findings for theoretical accounts of object perception and repetition priming.

  8. Increasing resilience through participative flood risk map design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Sven; Spira, Yvonne; Stickler, Therese

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, an increasing number of flood hazards has shown to the European Commission and the Member States of the European Union the importance of flood risk management strategies in order to reduce losses and to protect the environment and the citizens. Exposure to floods as well as flood vulnerability might increase across Europe due to the ongoing economic development in many EU countries. Thus even without taking climate change into account an increase of flood disasters in Europe might be foreseeable. These circumstances have produced a reaction in the European Commission, and a Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks was issued as one of the three components of the European Action Programme on Flood Risk Management. Floods have the potential to jeopardise economic development, above all due to an increase of human activities in floodplains and the reduction of natural water retention by land use activities. As a result, an increase in the likelihood and adverse impacts of flood events is expected. Therefore, concentrated action is needed at the European level to avoid severe impacts on human life and property. In order to have an effective tool available for gathering information, as well as a valuable basis for priority setting and further technical, financial and political decisions regarding flood risk mitigation and management, it is necessary to provide for the establishment of flood risk maps which show the potential adverse consequences associated with different flood scenarios. So far, hazard and risk maps are compiled in terms of a top-down linear approach: planning authorities take the responsibility to create and implement these maps on different national and local scales, and the general public will only be informed about the outcomes (EU Floods Directive, Article 10). For the flood risk management plans, however, an "active involvement of interested parties" is required, which means at least some kind of multilateral

  9. Nuisance Flooding and Relative Sea-Level Rise: the Importance of Present-Day Land Motion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karegar, Makan A; Dixon, Timothy H; Malservisi, Rocco; Kusche, Jürgen; Engelhart, Simon E

    2017-09-11

    Sea-level rise is beginning to cause increased inundation of many low-lying coastal areas. While most of Earth's coastal areas are at risk, areas that will be affected first are characterized by several additional factors. These include regional oceanographic and meteorological effects and/or land subsidence that cause relative sea level to rise faster than the global average. For catastrophic coastal flooding, when wind-driven storm surge inundates large areas, the relative contribution of sea-level rise to the frequency of these events is difficult to evaluate. For small scale "nuisance flooding," often associated with high tides, recent increases in frequency are more clearly linked to sea-level rise and global warming. While both types of flooding are likely to increase in the future, only nuisance flooding is an early indicator of areas that will eventually experience increased catastrophic flooding and land loss. Here we assess the frequency and location of nuisance flooding along the eastern seaboard of North America. We show that vertical land motion induced by recent anthropogenic activity and glacial isostatic adjustment are contributing factors for increased nuisance flooding. Our results have implications for flood susceptibility, forecasting and mitigation, including management of groundwater extraction from coastal aquifers.

  10. Comparative hazard analysis of processes leading to remarkable flash floods (France, 1930-1999)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boudou, M.; Lang, M.; Vinet, F.; Cœur, D.

    2016-10-01

    Flash flood events are responsible for large economic losses and lead to fatalities every year in France. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean and oversea territories/departments of France, characterized by extreme hydro-climatological features and with a large part of the population exposed to flood risks. The recurrence of remarkable flash flood events, associated with high hazard intensity, significant damage and socio-political consequences, therefore raises several issues for authorities and risk management policies. This study aims to improve our understanding of the hazard analysis process in the case of four remarkable flood events: March 1930, October 1940, January 1980 and November 1999. Firstly, we present the methodology used to define the remarkability score of a flood event. Then, to identify the factors leading to a remarkable flood event, we explore the main parameters of the hazard analysis process, such as the meteorological triggering conditions, the return period of the rainfall and peak discharge, as well as some additional factors (initial catchment state, flood chronology, cascade effects, etc.). The results contribute to understanding the complexity of the processes leading to flood hazard and highlight the importance for risk managers of taking additional factors into account.

  11. Investigating flood susceptible areas in inaccessible regions using remote sensing and geographic information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Joongbin; Lee, Kyoo-Seock

    2017-03-01

    Every summer, North Korea (NK) suffers from floods, resulting in decreased agricultural production and huge economic loss. Besides meteorological reasons, several factors can accelerate flood damage. Environmental studies about NK are difficult because NK is inaccessible due to the division of Korea. Remote sensing (RS) can be used to delineate flood inundated areas in inaccessible regions such as NK. The objective of this study was to investigate the spatial characteristics of flood susceptible areas (FSAs) using multi-temporal RS data and digital elevation model data. Such study will provide basic information to restore FSAs after reunification. Defining FSAs at the study site revealed that rice paddies with low elevation and low slope were the most susceptible areas to flood in NK. Numerous sediments from upper streams, especially streams through crop field areas on steeply sloped hills, might have been transported and deposited into stream channels, thus disturbing water flow. In conclusion, NK floods may have occurred not only due to meteorological factors but also due to inappropriate land use for flood management. In order to mitigate NK flood damage, reforestation is needed for terraced crop fields. In addition, drainage capacity for middle stream channel near rice paddies should be improved.

  12. A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Philip J.; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Bates, Paul D.; Botzen, Wouter J. W.; Diaz Loaiza, Andres; Hallegatte, Stephane; Kind, Jarl M.; Kwadijk, Jaap; Scussolini, Paolo; Winsemius, Hessel C.

    2017-09-01

    Floods cause billions of dollars of damage each year, and flood risks are expected to increase due to socio-economic development, subsidence, and climate change. Implementing additional flood risk management measures can limit losses, protecting people and livelihoods. Whilst several models have been developed to assess global-scale river-flood risk, methods for evaluating flood risk management investments globally are lacking. Here, we present a framework for assessing costs and benefits of structural flood protection measures in urban areas around the world. We demonstrate its use under different assumptions of current and future climate change and socio-economic development. Under these assumptions, investments in dykes may be economically attractive for reducing risk in large parts of the world, but not everywhere. In some regions, economically efficient investments could reduce future flood risk below today’s levels, in spite of climate change and economic growth. We also demonstrate the sensitivity of the results to different assumptions and parameters. The framework can be used to identify regions where river-flood protection investments should be prioritized, or where other risk-reducing strategies should be emphasized.

  13. Costs of Placing Fill in a Flood Plain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-05-01

    Computation 5 Engineering. Enviromental and Legal Aspects of Filling 6 STUDY CONCLUSIONS 8 APPENDIX "Guidelines for Filling Floodplains," Bauer Engineering...Various attempts have been made to estimate an economic value of the ecosystem and from this the economic loss or gain due to its modification. Whether...or not an economic value is estimated, the changes - quantitative and qualitative - should be recognized. An examination of several flood plain

  14. Dam-breach analysis and flood-inundation mapping for selected dams in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, and near Atoka, Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shivers, Molly J.; Smith, S. Jerrod; Grout, Trevor S.; Lewis, Jason M.

    2015-01-01

    Dams provide beneficial functions such as flood control, recreation, and storage of water supplies, but they also entail risk; dam breaches and resultant floods can cause substantial property damage and loss of life. The State of Oklahoma requires each owner of a high-hazard dam, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency defines as dams for which failure or improper operation probably will cause loss of human life, to develop an emergency action plan specific to that dam. Components of an emergency action plan are to simulate a flood resulting from a possible dam breach and map the resulting downstream flood-inundation areas. The resulting flood-inundation maps can provide valuable information to city officials, emergency managers, and local residents for planning an emergency response if a dam breach occurs.

  15. Beyond Flood Hazard Maps: Detailed Flood Characterization with Remote Sensing, GIS and 2d Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillan, J. R.; Marqueso, J. T.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Serviano, J. L.

    2016-09-01

    Flooding is considered to be one of the most destructive among many natural disasters such that understanding floods and assessing the risks associated to it are becoming more important nowadays. In the Philippines, Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) are two main technologies used in the nationwide modelling and mapping of flood hazards. Although the currently available high resolution flood hazard maps have become very valuable, their use for flood preparedness and mitigation can be maximized by enhancing the layers of information these maps portrays. In this paper, we present an approach based on RS, GIS and two-dimensional (2D) flood modelling to generate new flood layers (in addition to the usual flood depths and hazard layers) that are also very useful in flood disaster management such as flood arrival times, flood velocities, flood duration, flood recession times, and the percentage within a given flood event period a particular location is inundated. The availability of these new layers of flood information are crucial for better decision making before, during, and after occurrence of a flood disaster. The generation of these new flood characteristic layers is illustrated using the Cabadbaran River Basin in Mindanao, Philippines as case study area. It is envisioned that these detailed maps can be considered as additional inputs in flood disaster risk reduction and management in the Philippines.

  16. BEYOND FLOOD HAZARD MAPS: DETAILED FLOOD CHARACTERIZATION WITH REMOTE SENSING, GIS AND 2D MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Santillan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is considered to be one of the most destructive among many natural disasters such that understanding floods and assessing the risks associated to it are becoming more important nowadays. In the Philippines, Remote Sensing (RS and Geographic Information System (GIS are two main technologies used in the nationwide modelling and mapping of flood hazards. Although the currently available high resolution flood hazard maps have become very valuable, their use for flood preparedness and mitigation can be maximized by enhancing the layers of information these maps portrays. In this paper, we present an approach based on RS, GIS and two-dimensional (2D flood modelling to generate new flood layers (in addition to the usual flood depths and hazard layers that are also very useful in flood disaster management such as flood arrival times, flood velocities, flood duration, flood recession times, and the percentage within a given flood event period a particular location is inundated. The availability of these new layers of flood information are crucial for better decision making before, during, and after occurrence of a flood disaster. The generation of these new flood characteristic layers is illustrated using the Cabadbaran River Basin in Mindanao, Philippines as case study area. It is envisioned that these detailed maps can be considered as additional inputs in flood disaster risk reduction and management in the Philippines.

  17. Evidence for trends in UK flooding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robson, Alice J

    2002-07-15

    Recent major flooding in the UK has raised concern that climate change is causing increases in flood frequency and flood magnitude. This paper considers whether UK flood data provide evidence of increasing trends in fluvial floods. The analysis examines both local and national flood series and investigates the effect of climate variability on trend detection. The results suggest that there have been trends towards more protracted high flows over the last 30-50 years, but that this could be accounted for as part of climatic variation rather than climate change. There is no statistical evidence of a long-term trend in flooding over the last 80-120 years. Thus, although climate change could be influencing floods, direct analysis of flood records does not yet provide proof.

  18. Passively Mode-Locked Fiber Laser with a Sub-Megahertz Repetition Rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Jiong; JIA Dong-Fang; WU Yong-Chao; WANG Chang-Le; WANG Zhao-Ying; YANG Tian-Xin

    2011-01-01

    We demonstrate an ultra-long cavity by which an all-fiber erbium-doped fiber laser is passively mode-locked by nonlinear polarization rotation.The length of the resonant cavity amounts to 466m,which can be achieved by incorporating a 420m highly nonlinear fiber.The laser generates stable mode-locked pulses with a 444 kHz fundamental repetition rate.A near transform-limited subpicosecond pulse is obtained without any dispersion compensation.The maximum average power of the output pulses is 5.16 mW,which corresponds to a per-pulse energy of 11.62nJ.A low-repetition-rate optical pulse train is required for many applications such as micromachining,biomedical diagnostics and lidar systems.[1-3] However,the repetition rate of conventional fiber lasers is normally tens of MHz.Pulse pickers such as Pockels cells or acousto-optic modulators are always used to lower the repetition rate,however,reduction in this way introduces significant energy losses,impairs the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and increases complexity.Because the pulse repetition rate of a modelocked laser is inversely proportional to its resonator length,longer cavities lead to lower pulse repetition rates and,consequently,to higher pulse energy at the same average power of radiation.%We demonstrate an ultra-long cavity by which an all-fiber erbium-doped fiber laser is passively mode-locked by nonlinear polarization rotation. The length of the resonant cavity amounts to 466 m, which can be achieved by incorporating a 420 m highly nonlinear fiber. The laser generates stable mode-locked pulses with a 444 kHz fundamental repetition rate. A near transform-limited subpicosecond pulse is obtained without any dispersion compensation. The maximum average power of the output pulses is 5.16mW, which corresponds to a per-pulse energy of 11.62 nJ.

  19. The Bisagno stream catchment (Genoa, Italy) and its major floods: geomorphic and land use variations in the last three centuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faccini, Francesco; Paliaga, Guido; Piana, Pietro; Sacchini, Alessandro; Watkins, Charles

    2016-11-01

    The city of Genoa (Liguria, Italy) and the Bisagno Valley are affected by frequent floods, often with loss of human lives. Historically characterised by high flood hazards, the Bisagno Valley was recently affected by a flood event on 9 October 2014, less than three years after the tragic flood event of 4 November 2011 when six people died, including two children. In the last 50 years, four destructive floods occurred in the Bisagno Valley, in addition to some other events that caused significant damage and economic losses. This paper examines the three largest flood events in terms of intensity and ground effects which affected the Bisagno Valley in the last three centuries: the flood of 25 October 1822, well documented by contemporary sources, the flood of 8 October 1970, undoubtedly the most tragic on record, and the very recent event of 9 October 2014. For this purpose scientific and historical-geographical methodologies were adopted, the latter particularly useful for the reconstruction of the flood event of 1822 and the landscape history of the Bisagno Valley in the nineteenth century. This comparison shows that the Bisagno Valley is characterised by climatic and landform features that have been making the flood events historically common in the area. However, recent climate change and land-use variations, including some major modifications of the catchment basin, have progressively determined a decrease of the concentration time and an increase of runoff, solid transport, and flood hazard. Consequently, in recent decades a growth in the number of flood events occurred, to the extent that the Bisagno today is a famous case study on an international scale.

  20. Flood Risk in the Danube basin under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Wortmann, Michel; del Rocio Rivas Lopez, Maria; Liersch, Stefan; Viet Nguyen, Dung; Hardwick, Stephen; Hattermann, Fred

    2017-04-01

    The projected increase in temperature is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle, and thus more intense precipitation is likely to increase hydro-meteorological extremes and flood hazard. However to assess the future dynamics of hazard and impact induced by these changes it is necessary to consider extreme events and to take a spatially differentiated perspective. The Future Danube Model is a multi-hazard and risk model suite for the Danube region which has been developed in the OASIS project. The model comprises modules for estimating potential perils from heavy precipitation, heat-waves, floods, droughts, and damage risk considering hydro-climatic extremes under current and climate change conditions. Web-based open Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology allows customers to graphically analyze and overlay perils and other spatial information such as population density or assets exposed. The Future Danube Model combines modules for weather generation, hydrological and hydrodynamic processes, and supports risk assessment and adaptation planning support. This contribution analyses changes in flood hazard in the Danube basin and in flood risk for the German part of the Danube basin. As climate change input, different regionalized climate ensemble runs of the newest IPCC generation are used, the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are delivered by the CORDEX initiative (Coordinated Downscaling Experiments). The CORDEX data sample is extended using the statistical weather generator (IMAGE) in order to also consider extreme events. Two time slices are considered: near future 2020-2049 and far future 2050-2079. This data provides the input for the hydrological, hydraulic and flood loss model chain. Results for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate an increase in intensity and frequency of peak discharges and thus in flood hazard for many parts of the Danube basin.

  1. Towards a 1km resolution global flood risk model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bates, Paul; Neal, Jeff; Sampson, Chris; Smith, Andy

    2014-05-01

    Recent advances in computationally efficient numerical algorithms and new High Performance Computing architectures now make high (1-2km) resolution global hydrodynamic models a realistic proposition. However in many areas of the world the data sets and tools necessary to undertake such modelling do not currently exist. In particular, five major problems need to be resolved: (1) the best globally available terrain data (SRTM) was generated from X-band interferometric radar data which does not penetrate vegetation canopies and which has significant problems in determining ground elevations in urban areas; (2) a global river bathymetry data set does not currently exist; (3) most river channels globally are less than the smallest currently resolvable grid scale (1km) and therefore require a sub-grid treatment; (4) a means to estimate the magnitude of the T year flood at any point along the global river network does not currently exist; and (5) a large proportion of flood losses are generated by off-floodplain surface water flows which are not well represented in current hydrodynamic modelling systems. In this paper we propose solutions to each of these five issues as part of a concerted effort to develop a 1km (or better) resolution global flood hazard model. We describe the new numerical algorithms, computer architectures and computational resources used, and demonstrate solutions to the five previously intractable problems identified above. We conduct a validation study of the modelling against satellite imagery of major flooding on the Mississippi-Missouri confluence plain in the central USA before outlining a proof-of-concept regional study for SE Asia as a step towards a global scale model. For SE Asia we simulate flood hazard for ten different flood return periods over the entire Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Laos region at 1km resolution and show that the modelling produces coherent, consistent and sensible simulations of extent and water depth.

  2. Flooding from Intense Rainfall: an overview of project SINATRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloke, Hannah

    2014-05-01

    Project SINATRA (Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding) is part of the UK NERC's Flooding From Intense Rainfall (FFIR) research programme which aims to reduce the risks of damage and loss of life caused by surface water and flash floods through improved identification, characterisation and prediction of interacting meteorological, hydrological and hydro-morphological processes that contribute to flooding associated with high-intensity rainfall events. Extreme rainfall events may only last for a few hours at most, but can generate terrifying and destructive floods. Their impact can be affected by a wide range factors (or processes) such as the location and intensity of the rainfall, the shape and steepness of the catchment it falls on, how much sediment is moved by the water and the vulnerability of the communities in the flood's path. Furthermore, FFIR are by their nature rapid, making it very difficult for researchers to 'capture' measurements during events. The complexity, speed and lack of field measurements on FFIR make it difficult to create computer models to predict flooding and often we are uncertain as to their accuracy. In addition there is no consensus on how to identify how particular catchments may be vulnerable to FFIR, due to factors such as catchment area, shape, geology and soil type as well as land-use. Additionally, the catchments most susceptible to FFIR are often small and un-gauged. Project SINATRA will: (1) Increase our understanding of what factors cause FFIR and gathering new, high resolution measurements of FFIR by: assembling an archive of past FFIR events in Britain and their impacts, as a prerequisite for improving our ability to predict future occurrences of FFIR; making real time observations of flooding during flood events as well as post-event surveys and historical event reconstruction, using fieldwork and crowd-sourcing methods; and characterizing the physical drivers for UK summer flooding events by

  3. Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

    2016-04-01

    Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

  4. The golden ratio of gait harmony: repetitive proportions of repetitive gait phases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iosa, Marco; Fusco, Augusto; Marchetti, Fabio; Morone, Giovanni; Caltagirone, Carlo; Paolucci, Stefano; Peppe, Antonella

    2013-01-01

    In nature, many physical and biological systems have structures showing harmonic properties. Some of them were found related to the irrational number φ known as the golden ratio that has important symmetric and harmonic properties. In this study, the spatiotemporal gait parameters of 25 healthy subjects were analyzed using a stereophotogrammetric system with 25 retroreflective markers located on their skin. The proportions of gait phases were compared with φ, the value of which is about 1.6180. The ratio between the entire gait cycle and stance phase resulted in 1.620 ± 0.058, that between stance and the swing phase was 1.629 ± 0.173, and that between swing and the double support phase was 1.684 ± 0.357. All these ratios did not differ significantly from each other (F = 0.870, P = 0.422, repeated measure analysis of variance) or from φ (P = 0.670, 0.820, 0.422, resp., t-tests). The repetitive gait phases of physiological walking were found in turn in repetitive proportions with each other, revealing an intrinsic harmonic structure. Harmony could be the key for facilitating the control of repetitive walking. Harmony is a powerful unifying factor between seemingly disparate fields of nature, including human gait.

  5. The Golden Ratio of Gait Harmony: Repetitive Proportions of Repetitive Gait Phases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Iosa

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In nature, many physical and biological systems have structures showing harmonic properties. Some of them were found related to the irrational number known as the golden ratio that has important symmetric and harmonic properties. In this study, the spatiotemporal gait parameters of 25 healthy subjects were analyzed using a stereophotogrammetric system with 25 retroreflective markers located on their skin. The proportions of gait phases were compared with , the value of which is about 1.6180. The ratio between the entire gait cycle and stance phase resulted in 1.620 ± 0.058, that between stance and the swing phase was 1.629 ± 0.173, and that between swing and the double support phase was 1.684 ± 0.357. All these ratios did not differ significantly from each other (, , repeated measure analysis of variance or from (, resp., t-tests. The repetitive gait phases of physiological walking were found in turn in repetitive proportions with each other, revealing an intrinsic harmonic structure. Harmony could be the key for facilitating the control of repetitive walking. Harmony is a powerful unifying factor between seemingly disparate fields of nature, including human gait.

  6. Flood risks and willingness to purchase flood insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlinger, M.R.; Attanasi, E.D.

    1980-01-01

    Computer simulation experiments were conducted to determine the effects of alternative sources of uncertainty on the willingness to pay for flood insurance. Two alternative insurance protection schemes were investigated: coinsurance and fixed coverage. The question investigated is to what extent does the insurance scheme influence how purchasers respond to risks? Floods were assumed to be log normally distributed and the effects on the purchase of insurance of uncertainties in the parameters of the distribution were explored using response surface analysis. Results indicate that fixed coverage insurance provisions shift most of the uncertainty in the physical parameters governing natural disaster occurrences away from the insuree and onto the insurer. The results also show that the form of the damage function has little effect on the demand for flood insurance.- Authors

  7. Uncertainty in flood risk mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Luisa M. S.; Fonte, Cidália C.; Gomes, Ricardo

    2014-05-01

    A flood refers to a sharp increase of water level or volume in rivers and seas caused by sudden rainstorms or melting ice due to natural factors. In this paper, the flooding of riverside urban areas caused by sudden rainstorms will be studied. In this context, flooding occurs when the water runs above the level of the minor river bed and enters the major river bed. The level of the major bed determines the magnitude and risk of the flooding. The prediction of the flooding extent is usually deterministic, and corresponds to the expected limit of the flooded area. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in the process of obtaining these limits, which influence the obtained flood maps used for watershed management or as instruments for territorial and emergency planning. In addition, small variations in the delineation of the flooded area can be translated into erroneous risk prediction. Therefore, maps that reflect the uncertainty associated with the flood modeling process have started to be developed, associating a degree of likelihood with the boundaries of the flooded areas. In this paper an approach is presented that enables the influence of the parameters uncertainty to be evaluated, dependent on the type of Land Cover Map (LCM) and Digital Elevation Model (DEM), on the estimated values of the peak flow and the delineation of flooded areas (different peak flows correspond to different flood areas). The approach requires modeling the DEM uncertainty and its propagation to the catchment delineation. The results obtained in this step enable a catchment with fuzzy geographical extent to be generated, where a degree of possibility of belonging to the basin is assigned to each elementary spatial unit. Since the fuzzy basin may be considered as a fuzzy set, the fuzzy area of the basin may be computed, generating a fuzzy number. The catchment peak flow is then evaluated using fuzzy arithmetic. With this methodology a fuzzy number is obtained for the peak flow

  8. King Tide floods in Tuvalu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C.-C.; Ho, C.-R.; Cheng, Y.-H.

    2013-05-01

    The spatial and temporal distributions of sea level rise present regional floods in some certain areas. The low-lying island countries are obviously the spots affected severely. Tuvalu, an atoll island country located in the south-west Pacific Ocean, is suffering the devastating effects of losing life, property, and intending migration caused by floods. They blame the regional flooding to King Tide, a term used but not clearly identified by Pacific islanders. In this study, we clarify what King Tide is first. By the tide gauge and topography data, we estimated the reasonable value of 3.2 m as the threshold of King Tide. This definition also fits to the statement by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of King Tide occurring once or twice a year. In addition, We cross validate the 19 yr data of tide gauge and satellite altimeter (1993-2012), the correlation coefficient indicates King Tide phenomenon is considerable connected to warm water mass. The 28 King Tide events revealed the fact that flooding can be referenced against spring tide levels, so can it be turned up by warm water mass. The warm water mass pushes up sea level; once spring tide, storm surge, or other climate variability overlaps it, the rising sea level might overflow and so has been called "King Tide" for the floods in Tuvalu. This study provides more understanding of the signals of King Tide and an island country case study of regional sea level rise.

  9. Rapid-assessing Methods of Loss in Extremely Heavy Rainfall Disaster Chain in Semiarid Region——A Case Study on a Flash Flood Debris Flow in Minxian County, Gansu Province%半干旱区极端强降雨灾害链损失快速评估方法——以甘肃岷县“5·10”特大山洪泥石流灾害为例

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    周洪建; 王曦; 袁艺; 王丹丹

    2014-01-01

    通过对半干旱地区极端强降雨灾害链的研究,构建了基于流域单元、综合多源信息的极端强降雨灾害链损失快速评估方法.其中,流域评估单元的选择、遥感解译与灾害信息员实地调查的房屋易损性判定准则、综合损失的灾害链损失评估思路等是该方法的主要特点.甘肃岷县“5·10”特大山洪泥石流灾害房屋损失评估误差小于15%,基本满足应急救助决策的需要.建立多源数据条件下的洪涝灾害实物量毁损快速评估体系,可提升灾害应急救助效率.%Less attention was paid to the extremely heavy rainfall disaster chain in semiarid regions in the previous researches.Under climate change,the frequency and intensity of extremely heavy rainfall in semiarid areas in China was in an obvious increase trend in recent decades.It is important to develop a methodology of rapid assessment of damage and loss (RADL) in an extremely heavy rainfall so as to enhance the capability of preventing the disasters in semiarid areas.In this paper,a method was developed to assess the damage and loss in an extremely heavy rainfall disaster chain,especially in flash flood and debris flow disaster chains based on multi-source data and information,including the real-time precipitation,inundated area derived from remote sensing image interpretation results,social and economic information of the study area,etc.Three points should be emphasized in the framework of this method:① The assessment unit of the RADL was the combination of watershed unit and GRID unit,in which the watershed unit included the second-level watersheds in the study area,and the spatial resolution of GRID unit was decided by the social and economic information (e.g.population density) ; ② The home vulnerability curve was an important factor to implement the RADL.In this paper,a home vulnerability matrix was established based on the real-time filed survey of disaster information collectors at

  10. Iconicity in Discourse: The Case of Repetition in Japanese.

    Science.gov (United States)<