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Sample records for reliable weathering index

  1. WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

  2. Study on weathering index for improving the reliability of terrace correlation and chronology. Part 2. Understanding weathering condition of terrace gravel and induction of application requirement for correlation index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamada, Takaomi

    2012-01-01

    Geomorphographic survey of fluvial terraces, geological exploration, borehole drilling and investigation, and analysis of weathering condition of terrace gravels were carried out in Chuetsu area, Niigata prefecture, where a great deal of geomorphostratigraphic and tephrostratigraphic data are available. The results of these surveys and investigations indicate that weathering degree of terrace gravels can be considered as an index of the terrace age, and also provide points to remember for sampling and method of sampling and observation. The effective porosity and the thickness of weathering rind of gravels, which are indexes for weathering degree evaluation, in boring core, increase above the depth of about 5m from the top of the hole. Weathering doesn't reach the deep portion, therefore, investigation and evaluation for the weathering degree of terrace gravels must be carried out on the upper portion. Weathering rind thickness and effective porosity of the gravels are dispersive. Dispersion of the weathering rind thickness can be reduced by confining to andesite, and dispersion of the effective porosity can be reduced by limiting range of gravel size. Reducing dispersion, increase trend with age becomes clear in change of the weathering rind thickness and the effective porosity in many of the studied area. It shows that weathering rind thickness and effective porosity are effective for terrace correlation. Dispersion of data in an outcrop isn't small, but data from neighboring terraces with the same age are not different each other. It indicates that weathering rind thickness and effective porosity can be quantitative indexes for terrace age evaluation. In area where weathering rind is effective for terrace correlation, the rate of the weathering rind formation of andesite gravels is about 0.04mm/1000 years. Therefore, MIS6 terraces and MIS8 terraces can be distinguished each other by means of thickness of the weathering rind. This formation rate falls inside the

  3. Study on weathering index for improving the reliability of terrace correlation and chronology. Based on the observation and analysis of terrace deposit distributed in the Mid Niigata region and others

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamada, Takaomi; Hataya, Ryuta

    2009-01-01

    We carried out field survey and laboratory analysis to investigate various weathering indexes in loam and terrace deposit at outcrops of the terraces distributed in Mid-Niigata area and other two areas, which were correlated and chronologized accurately. We also collect and analyze the data of color and hardness of eolian loam, matrix of terrace deposit, thickness of decolorated and/or browning rim of terrace gravels, color and roughness of gravel surface and effective porosity on each terrace. According to result of the analysis, thickness of weathering rind can be an useful index for terrace correlation. Weathering rind is observed frequently in mafic and fine gravels, as a result of statistical survey of occurrence of the patterns of weathering type. According to the result of our field survey, Middle terrace contains few decayed gravels and Higher terrace group, which is older than MIS8 terrace, contains large amounts of decayed gravels. We can distinguish two different age terraces according to ratio of decayed gravel concentration in terrace deposit. Combination of data of thickness of weathering rind of gravel and concentration of decayed gravel in terrace deposit, adequate terrace correlation can be obtained with increased reliability. Difference of weathering degree can be detected by a combination of several indexes that can be observed in outcrops, it is possible to distinguish between different age terraces. Color and hardness of loam, thickness of weathering rind of terrace gravel can be indexes of weathering, these can explain the facts observed in outcrops. (author)

  4. FRELIB, Failure Reliability Index Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, D.B.; Oestergaard, C.

    1984-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: Calculation of the reliability index given the failure boundary. A linearization point (design point) is found on the failure boundary for a stationary reliability index (min) and a stationary failure probability density function along the failure boundary, provided that the basic variables are normally distributed. 2 - Method of solution: Iteration along the failure boundary which must be specified - together with its partial derivatives with respect to the basic variables - by the user in a subroutine FSUR. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: No distribution information included (first-order-second-moment-method). 20 basic variables (could be extended)

  5. Will British weather provide reliable electricity?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oswald, James; Raine, Mike; Ashraf-Ball, Hezlin

    2008-01-01

    There has been much academic debate on the ability of wind to provide a reliable electricity supply. The model presented here calculates the hourly power delivery of 25 GW of wind turbines distributed across Britain's grid, and assesses power delivery volatility and the implications for individual generators on the system. Met Office hourly wind speed data are used to determine power output and are calibrated using Ofgem's published wind output records. There are two main results. First, the model suggests that power swings of 70% within 12 h are to be expected in winter, and will require individual generators to go on or off line frequently, thereby reducing the utilisation and reliability of large centralised plants. These reductions will lead to increases in the cost of electricity and reductions in potential carbon savings. Secondly, it is shown that electricity demand in Britain can reach its annual peak with a simultaneous demise of wind power in Britain and neighbouring countries to very low levels. This significantly undermines the case for connecting the UK transmission grid to neighbouring grids. Recommendations are made for improving 'cost of wind' calculations. The authors are grateful for the sponsorship provided by The Renewable Energy Foundation

  6. Hedging effectiveness of weather index-based insurance in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pelka, N.; Musshoff, O.; Finger, R.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose - Maize production in China is exposed to pronounced yield risks, in particular weather risk, which is one of the most important and least controllable sources of risk in agriculture. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the extent to which weather index-based insurance can contribute to

  7. Applying weather index insurance to agricultural pest and disease risks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Norton, Michael; Sprundel, van Gert Jan; Turvey, Calum G.; Meuwissen, Miranda P.M.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the application of weather index insurance to plant pest and disease management strategies using two distinct models: (1) insuring crop loss due to disease incidence (“Crop Insurance”) and (2) insuring the use of pesticides (“Pesticide Insurance”). We find that despite

  8. A reliability analysis of the revised competitiveness index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Paul B; Houston, John M

    2010-06-01

    This study examined the reliability of the Revised Competitiveness Index by investigating the test-retest reliability, interitem reliability, and factor structure of the measure based on a sample of 280 undergraduates (200 women, 80 men) ranging in age from 18 to 28 years (M = 20.1, SD = 2.1). The findings indicate that the Revised Competitiveness Index has high test-retest reliability, high inter-item reliability, and a stable factor structure. The results support the assertion that the Revised Competitiveness Index assesses competitiveness as a stable trait rather than a dynamic state.

  9. SDI: Is it a reliable fouling index?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Al-Hadidi, A.M.M.; Kemperman, Antonius J.B.; Schippers, J.C.; Wessling, Matthias; van der Meer, Walterus Gijsbertus Joseph

    2012-01-01

    The ASTM considers the silt density index (SDI) test as a standard test for fouling potential of RO and NF feed waters. Up to date, the SDI is used at many full- and pilot-scale installations. The design and choice of the applied RO pretreatment is to a large extent based on the SDI test on the raw

  10. Test-retest reliability of the Work Ability Index questionnaire

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Zwart, B. C. H.; Frings-Dresen, M. H. W.; Van Duivenbooden, J. C.

    2002-01-01

    The goal of the study was to assess the test-retest reliability of the Work Ability Index (WAI) questionnaire. Reliability was tested using a test-retest design with a 4 week interval between measurements. Valid data were collected among 97 elderly construction workers aged 40 years and older. We

  11. Impact of Weather Index Insurance on Household Demand for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EJBE

    confidence about the compensation for expected loss from future weather condition .... found in western zone of Tigray, where the dominant crops are barley and teff. ... (such as age and sex of the household head, schooling level of household.

  12. EFFECTS OF WEATHER-INDEX INSURANCE: THE CASE OF SMALLHOLDER MAIZE FARMERS IN NORTHERN GHANA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bashiru Haruna

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the effect of weather-index insurance on intensity of fertilizer use and yields among 230 smallholder maize farmers in Northern Region of Ghana. Out of the total sample of selected farmers, about 35% purchased the insurance. Using an endogenous treatment regression model, the study showed that weather-index insurance purchase increased the intensity of fertilizer use but did not have a significant effect on maize yield. Past experience of crop failure due to drought, livestock ownership as well as the total area of land owned explained weather-index insurance purchase in the study area. Based on the results of this study, the Government of Ghana can use weather-index insurance as a policy tool to increase the use of fertilizer by smallholder maize farmers.

  13. Impact of Weather Index Insurance on Household Demand for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    EJBE

    42.7% of GDP, grew by 7.1, in order to accelerate this economic growth and minimize the weather ... leads to increase demand for fertilizer by 33 percent. Therefore, the .... The HARITA project complements Ethiopia's innovative social protection scheme ...... B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg.

  14. The influence of gender and product design on farmers' preferences for weather-indexed crop insurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, Sonia; Krupnik, Timothy J; Rossi, Frederick; Khanam, Fahmida

    2016-05-01

    Theoretically, weather-index insurance is an effective risk reduction option for small-scale farmers in low income countries. Renewed policy and donor emphasis on bridging gender gaps in development also emphasizes the potential social safety net benefits that weather-index insurance could bring to women farmers who are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change risk and have low adaptive capacity. To date, no quantitative studies have experimentally explored weather-index insurance preferences through a gender lens, and little information exists regarding gender-specific preferences for (and constraints to) smallholder investment in agricultural weather-index insurance. This study responds to this gap, and advances the understanding of preference heterogeneity for weather-index insurance by analysing data collected from 433 male and female farmers living on a climate change vulnerable coastal island in Bangladesh, where an increasing number of farmers are adopting maize as a potentially remunerative, but high-risk cash crop. We implemented a choice experiment designed to investigate farmers' valuations for, and trade-offs among, the key attributes of a hypothetical maize crop weather-index insurance program that offered different options for bundling insurance with financial saving mechanisms. Our results reveal significant insurance aversion among female farmers, irrespective of the attributes of the insurance scheme. Heterogeneity in insurance choices could however not be explained by differences in men's and women's risk and time preferences, or agency in making agriculturally related decisions. Rather, gendered differences in farmers' level of trust in insurance institutions and financial literacy were the key factors driving the heterogeneous preferences observed between men and women. Efforts to fulfill gender equity mandates in climate-smart agricultural development programs that rely on weather-index insurance as a risk-abatement tool are therefore

  15. Analysis on the Intention to Purchase Weather Index Insurance and Development Agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, K.; Jung, J.; Shin, J.; Kim, B.

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze how to revitalize weather insurance. Current state of weather insurance market is firstly described, and the necessity of insurance products and intention to purchase are analyzed based on the recognition survey regarding weather insurance focusing on the weather index insurance. The result of intention to purchase insurance products were examined with Ordered Logit Analysis (OLA), indicating that the amount of damages, the impacts of weather change, and experience of damage and loss have a positive relationship with the intention to purchase weather insurance. In addition, recognition of the amount of acceptable payment for insurance (i.e. willingness to pay) was analyzed for both the group who wants to purchase insurance (Group 1) and the group who does not want to (Group 2). The results demonstrate that Group 1 shows statistically higher significance than Group 2. Based on the results above with the increase in abnormal weather phenomena, we could predict that the amount of damages and losses will be rapidly increasing. The portion of weather insurance market is also expected to consistently develop and expand. This study could be a cornerstone for drawing a plan to revitalize weather insurance.

  16. Reliability and Validity of Athletes Disability Index Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noormohammadpour, Pardis; Hosseini Khezri, Alireza; Farahbakhsh, Farzin; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali; Smuck, Matthew; Kordi, Ramin

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate validity and reliability of a new proposed questionnaire for assessment of functional disability in athletes with low back pain (LBP). Validity and reliability study. Elite athletes participating in different fields of sports. Participants were 165 male and female athletes (between 12 and 50 years old) with LBP. Athlete Disability Index (ADI) Questionnaire which is developed by the authors for assessing LBP-related disability in athletes, Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), and the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RDQ). Self-reported responses were collected regarding LBP-related disability through ADI, ODI, and RDQ. The test-retest reliability was strong, and intraclass correlation value ranged between 0.74 and 0.94. The Cronbach alpha coefficient value of 0.91 (P visual analog scale was r = 0.626 (P disability levels were mild in the large majority of subjects (91.5% and 86.0%, respectively). Alternatively, disability assessments by the ADI did not cluster at the mild level and ranged more broadly from mild to very high. The ADI is a reliable and valid instrument for assessing disability in athletes with LBP. Compared with the available LBP disability questionnaires used in the general population, ADI can more precisely stratify the disability levels of athletes due to LBP.

  17. Reliability of the Emergency Severity Index: Meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Mirhaghi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Although triage systems based on the Emergency Severity Index (ESI have many advantages in terms of simplicity and clarity, previous research has questioned their reliability in practice. Therefore, the aim of this meta-analysis was to determine the reliability of ESI triage scales. Methods: This metaanalysis was performed in March 2014. Electronic research databases were searched and articles conforming to the Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies were selected. Two researchers independently examined selected abstracts. Data were extracted in the following categories: version of scale (latest/older, participants (adult/paediatric, raters (nurse, physician or expert, method of reliability (intra/inter-rater, reliability statistics (weighted/unweighted kappa and the origin and publication year of the study. The effect size was obtained by the Z-transformation of reliability coefficients. Data were pooled with random-effects models and a meta-regression was performed based on the method of moments estimator. Results: A total of 19 studies from six countries were included in the analysis. The pooled coefficient for the ESI triage scales was substantial at 0.791 (95% confidence interval: 0.787‒0.795. Agreement was higher with the latest and adult versions of the scale and among expert raters, compared to agreement with older and paediatric versions of the scales and with other groups of raters, respectively. Conclusion: ESI triage scales showed an acceptable level of overall reliability. However, ESI scales require more development in order to see full agreement from all rater groups. Further studies concentrating on other aspects of reliability assessment are needed.

  18. Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquín Bedia

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Managers of wildfire-prone landscapes in the Euro-Mediterranean region would greatly benefit from fire weather predictions a few months in advance, and particularly from the reliable prediction of extreme fire seasons. However, in some cases model biases prevent from a direct application of these predictions in an operational context. Fire risk management requires precise knowledge of the likely consequences of climate on fire risk, and the interest for decision-makers is focused on multi-variable fire danger indices, calculated through the combination of different model output variables. In this paper we consider whether the skill in dynamical seasonal predictions of one of the most widely applied of such indices (the Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI is sufficient to inform management decisions, and we examine various methodological aspects regarding the calibration of model outputs prior to its verification and operational applicability. We find that there is significant skill in predicting above average summer FWI in parts of SE Europe at 1 month lead time, but poor skill elsewhere. These results are largely linked to the predictability of relative humidity. Moreover, practical recommendations are given for the use of empirical quantile mapping in probabilistic seasonal FWI forecasts. Furthermore, we show how researchers, fire managers and other stakeholders can take advantage of a new open-source climate service in order to undertake all the necessary steps for data download, post-processing, analysis and verification in a straightforward and fully reproducible manner. Keywords: Climate impact indicators, Quantile mapping, Bias correction, System 4, Fire danger, Seasonal forecasting

  19. Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

    OpenAIRE

    Hai An; Ling Zhou; Hui Sun

    2016-01-01

    Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new...

  20. Using satellite fire detection to calibrate components of the fire weather index system in Malaysia and Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dymond, Caren C; Field, Robert D; Roswintiarti, Orbita; Guswanto

    2005-04-01

    Vegetation fires have become an increasing problem in tropical environments as a consequence of socioeconomic pressures and subsequent land-use change. In response, fire management systems are being developed. This study set out to determine the relationships between two aspects of the fire problems in western Indonesia and Malaysia, and two components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System. The study resulted in a new method for calibrating components of fire danger rating systems based on satellite fire detection (hotspot) data. Once the climate was accounted for, a problematic number of fires were related to high levels of the Fine Fuel Moisture Code. The relationship between climate, Fine Fuel Moisture Code, and hotspot occurrence was used to calibrate Fire Occurrence Potential classes where low accounted for 3% of the fires from 1994 to 2000, moderate accounted for 25%, high 26%, and extreme 38%. Further problems arise when there are large clusters of fires burning that may consume valuable land or produce local smoke pollution. Once the climate was taken into account, the hotspot load (number and size of clusters of hotspots) was related to the Fire Weather Index. The relationship between climate, Fire Weather Index, and hotspot load was used to calibrate Fire Load Potential classes. Low Fire Load Potential conditions (75% of an average year) corresponded with 24% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 30% of the largest cluster. In contrast, extreme Fire Load Potential conditions (1% of an average year) corresponded with 30% of the hotspot clusters, which had an average size of 58% of the maximum. Both Fire Occurrence Potential and Fire Load Potential calibrations were successfully validated with data from 2001. This study showed that when ground measurements are not available, fire statistics derived from satellite fire detection archives can be reliably used for calibration. More importantly, as a result of this work, Malaysia and

  1. Seasonal predictions of Fire Weather Index: Paving the way for their operational applicability in Mediterranean Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Joaquín Bedia; Nicola Golding; Ana Casanueva; Maialen Iturbide; Carlo Buontempo; Jose Manuel Gutiérrez

    2018-01-01

    Managers of wildfire-prone landscapes in the Euro-Mediterranean region would greatly benefit from fire weather predictions a few months in advance, and particularly from the reliable prediction of extreme fire seasons. However, in some cases model biases prevent from a direct application of these predictions in an operational context. Fire risk management requires precise knowledge of the likely consequences of climate on fire risk, and the interest for decision-makers is focused on multi-var...

  2. Maturity index on reliability: covering non-technical aspects of IEC61508 reliability certification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brombacher, A.C.

    1999-01-01

    One of the more recent developments in the field of reliability and safety is the realisation that these aspects are not only a function of the product itself, but also of the organisation realising this product. A second development is a trend from an often predominantly qualitative analysis towards a quantitative analysis. In contrast to the (older) DIN 0801, the (more recent) IEC61508 requires, on product level, also a quantitative analysis and, on organisational level, an assessment of the lifecycle of a product by analysing the (maturity of the) relevant business processes (DIN V VDE 0801. Grundsaetze fuer Rechner in Systemen mit Sicherheitsaufgaben, 1990; DIN V 0801. Grundlegende Sicherheitsbetrachtungen fuer MSR-Schutzeinrichtungen, 1994; DIN V VDE 0801 A1. Grundsaetze fuer Rechner in Systemen mit Sicherheitsaufgaben, Aenderung A1, 1994; IEC 61508 Functional Safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety-related systems, draft 4.0, 1997). The IEC standard 61508 covers: (i) technical aspects, both on a quantitative and a qualitative level; (ii) organisational aspects, both on aspects of maturity of business processes (quantitative) and on aspects of the definition and application of procedures (qualitative). This paper shows the necessity for an analysis on all aspects in a safety certification process, and presents an overview of the available tools and techniques for the various quadrants. As methods and tools for especially quadrant C are currently unavailable, this paper will propose a method to assess and improve the maturity of an organisation on reliability management: the maturity index on reliability (MIR)

  3. Structural hybrid reliability index and its convergent solving method based on random–fuzzy–interval reliability model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hai An

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Aiming to resolve the problems of a variety of uncertainty variables that coexist in the engineering structure reliability analysis, a new hybrid reliability index to evaluate structural hybrid reliability, based on the random–fuzzy–interval model, is proposed in this article. The convergent solving method is also presented. First, the truncated probability reliability model, the fuzzy random reliability model, and the non-probabilistic interval reliability model are introduced. Then, the new hybrid reliability index definition is presented based on the random–fuzzy–interval model. Furthermore, the calculation flowchart of the hybrid reliability index is presented and it is solved using the modified limit-step length iterative algorithm, which ensures convergence. And the validity of convergent algorithm for the hybrid reliability model is verified through the calculation examples in literature. In the end, a numerical example is demonstrated to show that the hybrid reliability index is applicable for the wear reliability assessment of mechanisms, where truncated random variables, fuzzy random variables, and interval variables coexist. The demonstration also shows the good convergence of the iterative algorithm proposed in this article.

  4. Using fire-weather forecasts and local weather observations in predicting burning index for individual fire-danger stations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen P. Cramer

    1958-01-01

    Any agency engaged in forest-fire control needs accurate weather forecasts and systematic procedures for making the best use of predicted and reported weather information. This study explores the practicability of using several tabular and graphical aids for converting area forecasts and local observations of relative humidity and wind speed into predicted values for...

  5. Implementation and spatialisation of the Canadian Fire Weather Index in the Veneto Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monai M

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Fire danger rating systems are essential tools for fire management activities, allowing optimal allocation of resources both before and during the fire danger periods. Veneto Region's Forest Service is testing the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI System to assess fire intensity, accounting for the effect of wind and the moisture content of inflammable material. The following steps were taken to apply the FWI system: (a selection of the smallest number (ideally 10 - 15 of weather stations to obtain input data. Principal Components Analysis was carried out on 62 time-series of 30 years (1960-1990, including mean monthly temperature (minimum and maximum and rainfall. The results highlighted two principal directions of climatic variability that were interpolated by the co-kriging method, allowing to delineate 11 relatively homogeneous areas in the Veneto Region. One station representative of each area was chosen to provide daily data for computing the daily fire danger index by the Regional Rating Service; (b automation of the FWI system. A SAS v.9.1® application runs the calculations and generates a regional map of daily fire danger for the Forest Service personnel. Graphics and tabular data are also available via intranet.

  6. Influence of microclimate on the sustainability and reliability of weathering steel bridge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubzova, M.; Krivy, V.; Kreislova, K.

    2018-04-01

    Reliability and sustainability of bridge structures designed from weathering steel are influenced by the development of a sufficiently protective layer of corrosion products on its surface. The development of this protective layer is affected by several parameters such as air pollution around the bridge structure, the microclimate under the bridge, the location of surface within the bridge structure and the time of wetness. Design of structural details also significantly influences the development of the protective corrosion layer. The article deals with the results of the experimental tests carried out on the road bridge located in the city of Ostrava in the Czech Republic. The development of the protective corrosion layer on the surface of the bridge is significantly influenced by the intensive traffic under the bridge construction and the design solution of the bridge itself. Attention is focused mainly on the influence of chloride deposition on the protective function of the corrosion layer. Corrosion samples were placed on the bridge to evaluate the influence of the above-mentioned parameters. The deposition rate of chlorides spreading from the road to surfaces of the steel structure is also measured.

  7. An assessment of fire occurrence regime and performance of Canadian fire weather index in south central Siberian boreal region

    OpenAIRE

    Chu, T.; Guo, X.

    2014-01-01

    Wildfire is the dominant natural disturbance in Eurasian boreal region, which acts as a major driver of the global carbon cycle. An effectiveness of wildfire management requires suitable tools for fire prevention and fire risk assessment. This study aims to investigate fire occurrence patterns in relation to fire weather conditions in the remote south central Siberia region. The Canadian Fire Weather Index derived from large-scale meteorol...

  8. Calibration of the sodium base cation dominance index of weathering for the River Dee catchment in north-east Scotland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stutter, M. [Aberdeen Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Plant and Soil Science; Smart, R.; Cresser, M. [York Univ. (United Kingdom). Environmental Dept.

    2002-07-01

    Previously the dominance of base cations by Na{sup +} in river water in upland catchments with low weathering rates and influenced by marine-derived aerosols has been suggested as a quantitative index of weathering rate upstream of the sampling point. Using data for 59 sites from a study of the River Dee catchment in NE Scotland, the index has been fully calibrated against catchment weathering rates and net alkalinity production, derived through input output budget methods, for both upland and agricultural catchments and over a wide range of parent materials. It is shown that the relationship between Na{sup +} dominance and weathering rate is logarithmic, rather than linear as initially suggested. The excellent correlations highlight the potential use of this Na{sup +} dominance index for the direct quantification of catchment susceptibility to acidification at fine spatial resolution, using a few simple and inexpensive measurements. Stronger correlations were observed between the % Na{sup +} dominance and net annual flux of alkalinity than between % Na{sup +} dominance and weathering rate derived from summation of base cation fluxes. This demonstrates the importance of mechanisms controlling the transport of base cations out of catchments, namely in association with organic matter and with anthropogenically derived SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}. These processes are shown to reduce the residual alkalinity derived through weathering. The partial neutralization of organic acidity by internally generated alkalinity has implications in the context of using the mass balance approach for setting critical loads for catchments. (Author)

  9. Assessment and Calibration of Ultrasonic Measurement Errors in Estimating Weathering Index of Stone Cultural Heritage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y.; Keehm, Y.

    2011-12-01

    Estimating the degree of weathering in stone cultural heritage, such as pagodas and statues is very important to plan conservation and restoration. The ultrasonic measurement is one of commonly-used techniques to evaluate weathering index of stone cultual properties, since it is easy to use and non-destructive. Typically we use a portable ultrasonic device, PUNDIT with exponential sensors. However, there are many factors to cause errors in measurements such as operators, sensor layouts or measurement directions. In this study, we carried out variety of measurements with different operators (male and female), different sensor layouts (direct and indirect), and sensor directions (anisotropy). For operators bias, we found that there were not significant differences by the operator's sex, while the pressure an operator exerts can create larger error in measurements. Calibrating with a standard sample for each operator is very essential in this case. For the sensor layout, we found that the indirect measurement (commonly used for cultural properties, since the direct measurement is difficult in most cases) gives lower velocity than the real one. We found that the correction coefficient is slightly different for different types of rocks: 1.50 for granite and sandstone and 1.46 for marble. From the sensor directions, we found that many rocks have slight anisotropy in their ultrasonic velocity measurement, though they are considered isotropic in macroscopic scale. Thus averaging four different directional measurement (0°, 45°, 90°, 135°) gives much less errors in measurements (the variance is 2-3 times smaller). In conclusion, we reported the error in ultrasonic meaurement of stone cultural properties by various sources quantitatively and suggested the amount of correction and procedures to calibrate the measurements. Acknowledgement: This study, which forms a part of the project, has been achieved with the support of national R&D project, which has been hosted by

  10. Sensitivity of fire weather index to different reanalysis products in the Iberian Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bedia

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires are a major concern on the Iberian Peninsula, and the establishment of effective prevention and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and losses. Fire weather indices are daily indicators of fire danger based upon meteorological information. However, their application in many studies is conditioned to the availability of sufficiently large climatological time series over extensive geographical areas and of sufficient quality. Furthermore, wind and relative humidity, important for the calculation of fire spread and fuel flammability parameters, are relatively scarce data. For these reasons, different reanalysis products are often used for the calculation of surrogate fire danger indices, although the agreement with those derived from observations remains as an open question to be addressed.

    In this study, we analyze this problem focusing on the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI – and the associated Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR – and considering three different reanalysis products of varying resolutions on the Iberian Peninsula: NCEP, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim. Besides the inter-comparison of the resulting FWI/SSR values, we also study their correspondence with observational data from 7 weather stations in Spain and their sensitivity to the input parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and wind velocity.

    As a general result, ERA-Interim reproduces the observed FWI magnitudes with better accuracy than NCEP, with lower/higher correlations in the coast/inland locations. For instance, ERA-Interim summer correlations are above 0.5 in inland locations – where higher FWI magnitudes are attained – whereas the corresponding values for NCEP are below this threshold. Nevertheless, departures from the observed distributions are generally found in all reanalysis, with a general tendency to underestimation, more pronounced in the case of NCEP. In spite of these limitations, ERA-Interim may still

  11. Trends of air pollution in Denmark - Normalised by a simple weather index model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiilsholm, S.; Rasmussen, A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a part of the Traffic Pool projects on 'Traffic and Environments', 1995-99, financed by the Danish Ministry of Transport. The Traffic Pool projects included five different projects on 'Surveillance of the Air Quality', 'Atmospheric Modelling', 'Atmospheric Chemistry Modelling', 'Smog and ozone' and 'Greenhouse effects and Climate', [Rasmussen, 2000]. This work is a part of the project on 'Surveillance of the Air Quality' with the main objectives to make trend analysis of levels of air pollution from traffic in Denmark. Other participants were from the Road Directory mainly focusing on measurement of traffic and trend analysis of the air quality utilising a nordic model for the air pollution in street canyons called BLB (Beregningsmodel for Luftkvalitet i Byluftgader) [Vejdirektoratet 2000], National Environmental Research Institute (HERI) mainly focusing on. measurements of air pollution and trend analysis with the Operational Street Pollution Model (OSPM) [DMU 2000], and the Copenhagen Environmental Protection Agency mainly focusing on measurements. In this study a more simple statistical model has been developed for trend analysis of the air quality. The model is filtering out the influence of the variations from year to year in the meteorological conditions on the air pollution levels. The weather factors found most important are wind speed, wind direction and mixing height. Measurements of CO, NO and NO 2 from three streets in Copenhagen have been used, these streets are Jagtvej, Bredgade and H. C. Andersen's Boulevard (HCAB). The years 1994-1996 were used for evaluation of the method and annual indexes of air pollution index dependent only on meteorological parameters, called WEATHIX, were calculated for the years 1990-1997 and used for normalisation of the observed air pollution trends. Meteorological data were taken from either the background stations at the H.C. Oersted - building situated close to one of the street stations or the synoptic

  12. Reliability and validity of the de Morton Mobility Index in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Tobias; Marks, Detlef; Thiel, Christian; Grüneberg, Christian

    2018-02-04

    To establish the validity and reliability of the de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) in patients with sub-acute stroke. This cross-sectional study was performed in a neurological rehabilitation hospital. We assessed unidimensionality, construct validity, internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, minimal detectable change and possible floor and ceiling effects of the DEMMI in adult patients with sub-acute stroke. The study included a total sample of 121 patients with sub-acute stroke. We analysed validity (n = 109) and reliability (n = 51) in two sub-samples. Rasch analysis indicated unidimensionality with an overall fit to the model (chi-square = 12.37, p = 0.577). All hypotheses on construct validity were confirmed. Internal consistency reliability (Cronbach's alpha = 0.94) and inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.95; 95% confidence interval: 0.92-0.97) were excellent. The minimal detectable change with 90% confidence was 13 points. No floor or ceiling effects were evident. These results indicate unidimensionality, sufficient internal consistency reliability, inter-rater reliability, and construct validity of the DEMMI in patients with a sub-acute stroke. Advantages of the DEMMI in clinical application are the short administration time, no need for special equipment and interval level data. The de Morton Mobility Index, therefore, may be a useful performance-based bedside test to measure mobility in individuals with a sub-acute stroke across the whole mobility spectrum. Implications for Rehabilitation The de Morton Mobility Index (DEMMI) is an unidimensional measurement instrument of mobility in individuals with sub-acute stroke. The DEMMI has excellent internal consistency and inter-rater reliability, and sufficient construct validity. The minimal detectable change of the DEMMI with 90% confidence in stroke rehabilitation is 13 points. The lack of any floor or ceiling effects on hospital admission indicates

  13. Reliability of levator scapulae index in subjects with and without scapular downward rotation syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ji-Hyun; Cynn, Heon-Seock; Choi, Woo-Jeong; Jeong, Hyo-Jung; Yoon, Tae-Lim

    2016-05-01

    The objective of this study was to introduce levator scapulae (LS) measurement using a caliper and the levator scapulae index (LSI) and to investigate intra- and interrater reliability of the LSI in subjects with and without scapular downward rotation syndrome (SDRS). Two raters measured LS length twice in 38 subjects (19 with SDRS and 19 without SDRS). For reliability testing, intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), standard error of measurement (SEM), and minimal detectable change (MDC) were calculated. Intrarater reliability analysis resulted with ICCs ranging from 0.94 to 0.98 in subjects with SDRS and 0.96 to 0.98 in subjects without SDRS. These results represented that intrarater reliability in both groups were excellent for measuring LS length with the LSI. Interrater reliability was good (ICC: 0.82) in subjects with SDRS; however, interrater reliability was moderate (ICC: 0.75) in subjects without SDRS. Additionally, SEM and MDC were 0.13% and 0.36% in subjects with SDRS and 0.35% and 0.97% in subjects without SDRS. In subjects with SDRS, low dispersion of the measurement errors and MDC were shown. This study suggested that the LSI is a reliable method to measure LS length and is more reliable for subjects with SDRS. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Validity and reliability of the Brazilian version of the Work Ability Index questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Maria Carmen; Latorre, Maria do Rosário Dias de Oliveira; Fischer, Frida Marina

    2009-06-01

    To evaluate the validity and reliability of the Portuguese language version of a work ability index. Cross sectional survey of a sample of 475 workers from an electrical company in the state of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil (spread across ten municipalities in the Campinas area), carried out in 2005. The following aspects of the Brazilian version of the Work Ability Index were evaluated: construct validity, using factorial exploratory analysis, and discriminant capacity, by comparing mean Work Ability Index scores in two groups with different absenteeism levels; criterion validity, by determining the correlation between self-reported health and Work Ability Index score; and reliability, using Cronbach's alpha to determine the internal consistency of the questionnaire. Factorial analysis indicated three factors in the work ability construct: issues pertaining to 'mental resources' (20.6% of the variance), self-perceived work ability (18.9% of the variance), and presence of diseases and health-related limitations (18.4% of the variance). The index was capable of discriminating workers according to levels of absenteeism, identifying a significantly lower (pindex and all dimensions of health status analyzed (pindex was high, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.72. The Brazilian version of the Work Ability Index showed satisfactory psychometric properties with respect to construct validity, thus constituting an appropriate option for evaluating work ability in both individual and population-based settings.

  15. The Children's Body Image Scale: reliability and use with international standards for body mass index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truby, Helen; Paxton, Susan J

    2008-03-01

    To test the reliability of the Children's Body Image Scale (CBIS) and assess its usefulness in the context of new body size charts for children. Participants were 281 primary schoolchildren with 50% being retested after 3 weeks. The CBIS figure scale was compared with a range of international body mass index (BMI) reference standards. Children had a high degree of body image dissatisfaction. The test-retest reliability of the CBIS was supported. The CBIS is a useful tool for assessing body image in children with sound scale properties. It can also be used to identify the body size of children, which lies outside the healthy weight range of BMI.

  16. High reliability solid refractive index matching materials for field installable connections in FTTH network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Kotaro; Kihara, Mitsuru; Shimizu, Tomoya; Yoneda, Keisuke; Kurashima, Toshio

    2015-06-01

    We performed environmental and accelerated aging tests to ensure the long-term reliability of solid type refractive index matching material at a splice point. Stable optical characteristics were confirmed in environmental tests based on an IEC standard. In an accelerated aging test at 140 °C, which is very much higher than the specification test temperature, the index matching material itself and spliced fibers passing through it had steady optical characteristics. Then we performed an accelerated aging test on an index matching material attached to a built-in fiber before splicing it in the worst condition, which is different from the normal use configuration. As a result, we confirmed that the repeated insertion and removal of fiber for splicing resulted in failure. We consider that the repetition of adhesion between index matching material and fibers causes the splice to degrade. With this result, we used the Arrhenius model to estimate a median lifetime of about 68 years in a high temperature environment of 60 °C. Thus solid type index matching material at a splice point is highly reliable over long periods under normal conditions of use.

  17. Space weathering and the color indexes of minor bodies in the outer Solar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaňuchová, Zuzana; Brunetto, Rosario; Melita, Mario; Strazzulla, Giovanni

    2012-09-01

    The surfaces of small bodies in the outer Solar System are rich in organic compounds and carbonaceous refractories mixed with ices and silicates. As made clear by dedicated laboratory experiments space weathering (e.g. energetic ion bombardment) can produce red colored materials starting from bright and spectrally flat ices. In a classical scenario, the space weathering processes “nurture” alter the small bodies surface spectra but are in competition with resurfacing agents that restore the original colors, and the result of these competing processes continuously modifying the surfaces is supposed to be responsible for the observed spectral variety of those small bodies. However an alternative point of view is that the different colors are due to “nature” i.e. to the different primordial composition of different objects. In this paper we present a model, based on laboratory results, that gives an original contribution to the “nature” vs. “nurture” debate by addressing the case of surfaces showing different fractions of rejuvenated vs. space weathered surface, and calculating the corresponding color variations. We will show how a combination of increasing dose coupled to different resurfacing can reproduce the whole range of observations of small outer Solar System bodies. Here we demonstrate, for the first time that objects having a fully weathered material turn back in the color-color diagrams. At the same time, object with the different ratio of pristine and weathered surface areas lay on specific lines in color-color diagrams, if exposed to the same amount of irradiation.

  18. Determination of Reliability Index and Weibull Modulus as a Measure of Hypereutectic Silumins Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Szymszal

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The first part of the study describes the methods used to determine Weibull modulus and the related reliability index of hypereutectic silumins containing about 17% Si, assigned for manufacture of high-duty castings to be used in automotive applications and aviation. The second part of the study discusses the importance of chemical composition, including the additions of 3% Cu, 1,5% Ni and 1,5% Mg, while in the third part attention was focussed on the effect of process history, including mould type (sand or metal as well as the inoculation process and heat treatment (solutioning and ageing applied to the cast AlSi17Cu3Mg1,5Ni1,5 alloy, on the run of Weibull distribution function and reliability index calculated for the tensile strength Rm of the investigated alloys.

  19. The Addiction Severity Index: Reliability and validity in a Dutch alcoholic population

    OpenAIRE

    Dejong, C.A.J.; Willems, J.C.E.W.; Schippers, G.M.; Hendriks, V.M.

    1995-01-01

    The Addiction Severity Index (ASI) was evaluated for its psychometric qualities in a Dutch alcoholic population admitted to an addiction treatment center in the Netherlands. Its factorial structure in this population was found to be consistent with the established six factor structure of the ASI. Reliability analysis revealed that the homogeneity of the subscales was acceptable with the exception of the Alcohol Scale. The six subscales were not highly intercorrelated. The results of this stud...

  20. Long term test-retest reliability of Oswestry Disability Index in male office workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irmak, Rafet; Baltaci, Gul; Ergun, Nevin

    2015-01-01

    The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is one of the most common condition specific outcome measures used in the management of spinal disorders. But there is insufficient study on healthy populations and long term test-retest reliability. This is important because healthy populations are often used for control groups in low back pain interventions, and knowing the reliability of the controls affects the interpretation of the findings of these studies. The purpose of this study is to determine the long term test-retest reliability of ODI in office workers. Participants who have no chronic low back pain history were included in study. Subjects were assessed by the Turkish-ODI 2.0 (e-forms) on 1st, 2nd, 4th, 8th, 15th, 30th days to determine the stability of ODI scores over time. The study began with 58 (12 female, 46 male) participants. 36 (3 female, 33 male) participated for the full 30 days. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Friedman tests were used. Test-retest reliability was evaluated by using nonparametric statistics. All tests were done by using SPSS-11. There was no statistically significant difference among the median scores of each day. (χ= 6.482, p >  0.05). The difference between median score of the days with 1st day was neither statistically nor clinically significant. ODI has long term test re-test reliability in healthy subjects over a 1 month time interval.

  1. The Use of Remotely Sensed Rainfall for Managing Drought Risk: A Case Study of Weather Index Insurance in Zambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Black

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Remotely sensed rainfall is increasingly being used to manage climate-related risk in gauge sparse regions. Applications based on such data must make maximal use of the skill of the methodology in order to avoid doing harm by providing misleading information. This is especially challenging in regions, such as Africa, which lack gauge data for validation. In this study, we show how calibrated ensembles of equally likely rainfall can be used to infer uncertainty in remotely sensed rainfall estimates, and subsequently in assessment of drought. We illustrate the methodology through a case study of weather index insurance (WII in Zambia. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, WII pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. As remotely sensed rainfall is used to extend WII schemes to large numbers of farmers, it is crucial to ensure that the indices being insured are skillful representations of local environmental conditions. In our study we drive a land surface model with rainfall ensembles, in order to demonstrate how aggregation of rainfall estimates in space and time results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a truer representation of agricultural drought. Although our study focuses on agricultural insurance, the methodological principles for application design are widely applicable in Africa and elsewhere.

  2. Index of Air Weather Service Technical Publications. Headquarters AWS and Subordinate Units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-07-01

    llp (ATI-98239). 105-77 "Hurricanes of 1950: Narrative History of Each Storm and Comments on Hurricane Reconnaissance," July 1951, 90p (ATI-110565...Solar Flare Videometer," by Paul E. Tallant, pp. 92-109. "The Use of Ground Level Neutron Monitors in a Real Time Solar Proton Monitoring Network," by M...8-12p ’Window’ Radiation over Indonesia and Malaysia ," by Earl S. Merritt, pp. 245-253. "Short Range, Subsynoptic Surface Weather Prediction," by

  3. The reliability of the Extra Load Index as a measure of relative load carriage economy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudson, Sean; Cooke, Carlton; Lloyd, Ray

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to measure the reliability of the extra load index (ELI) as a method for assessing relative load carriage economy. Seventeen volunteers (12 males, 5 females) performed walking trials at 3 km·h -1 , 6 km·h -1 and a self-selected speed. Trial conditions were repeated 7 days later to assess test-retest reliability. Trials involved four 4-minute periods of walking, each separated by 5 min of rest. The initial stage was performed unloaded followed in a randomised order by a second unloaded period and walking with backpacks of 7 and 20 kg. Results show ELI values did not differ significantly between trials for any of the speeds (p = 0.46) with either of the additional loads (p = 0.297). The systematic bias, limits of agreement and coefficients of variation were small in all trial conditions. We conclude the ELI appears to be a reliable measure of relative load carriage economy. Practitioner Summary: This paper demonstrates that the ELI is a reliable measure of load carriage economy at a range of walking speeds with both a light and heavy load. The ELI, therefore, represents a useful tool for comparing the relative economy associated with different load carriage systems.

  4. Reliability measures for indexed semi-Markov chains applied to wind energy production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio

    2015-01-01

    The computation of the dependability measures is a crucial point in many engineering problems as well as in the planning and development of a wind farm. In this paper we address the issue of energy production by wind turbines by using an indexed semi-Markov chain as a model of wind speed. We present the mathematical model, the data and technical characteristics of a commercial wind turbine (Aircon HAWT-10kW). We show how to compute some of the main dependability measures such as reliability, availability and maintainability functions. We compare the results of the model with real energy production obtained from data available in the Lastem station (Italy) and sampled every 10 min. - Highlights: • Semi-Markov models. • Time series generation of wind speed. • Computation of availability, reliability and maintainability.

  5. Determination of Reliability Index and Weibull Modulus as a Measure of Hypereutectic Silumins Survival

    OpenAIRE

    J. Szymszal; J. Piątkowski; J. Przondziono

    2007-01-01

    The first part of the study describes the methods used to determine Weibull modulus and the related reliability index of hypereutectic silumins containing about 17% Si, assigned for manufacture of high-duty castings to be used in automotive applications and aviation. The second part of the study discusses the importance of chemical composition, including the additions of 3% Cu, 1,5% Ni and 1,5% Mg, while in the third part attention was focussed on the effect of process history, including moul...

  6. [Reliability of the PROFUND index to predict 4-year mortality in polypathological patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díez-Manglano, Jesús; Del Corral Beamonte, Esther; Ramos Ibáñez, Rosa; Lambán Aranda, María Pilar; Toyas Miazza, Carla; Rodero Roldán, María Del Mar; Ortiz Domingo, Concepción; Munilla López, Eulalia; de Escalante Yangüela, Begoña

    2016-09-16

    To determine the usefullness of the PROFUND index to assess the risk of global death after 4 years in polypathological patients. Multicenter prospective cohort (Internal Medicine and Geriatrics) study. Polypathological patients admitted between March 1st and June 30th 2011 were included. For each patient, data concerning age, sex, living at home or in a nursing residence, polypathology categories, Charlson, Barthel and Lawton-Brody indexes, Pfeiffer questionnaire, socio-familial Gijon scale, delirium, number of drugs, hemoglobin and creatinine values were gathered, and the PROFUND index was calculated. The follow-up lasted 4 years. We included 441 patients, 324 from Internal Medicine and 117 from Geriatrics, with a mean age of 80.9 (8.7) years. Of them, 245 (55.6%) were women. Heart (62.7%), neurological (41.4%) and respiratory (37.3%) diseases were the most frequent. Geriatrics inpatients were older and more dependants and presented greater cognitive deterioration. After 4 years, 335 (76%) patients died. Mortality was associated with age, dyspnoea, Barthel index<60, delirium, advanced neoplasia and≥4 admissions in the last year. The area under the curve of the PROFUND index was 0.748, 95% CI 0.689-0.806, P<.001 in Internal Medicine and 0.517, 95% CI 0.369-0.666, P=.818 in Geriatrics patients, respectively. The PROFUND index is a reliable tool for predicting long-term global mortality in polypathological patients from Internal Medicine but not from Geriatrics departments. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Procedures and methods that increase reliability and reproducibility of the transplanted kidney perfusion index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smokvina, A.

    1994-01-01

    At different times following surgery and during various complications, 119 studies were performed on 57 patients. In many patients studies were repeated several times. Twenty-three studies were performed in as many patients, in whom a normal function of the transplanted kidney was established by other diagnostic methods and retrospective analysis. Comparison was made of the perfusion index results obtained by the Hilson et al. method from 1978 and the ones obtained by my own modified method, which for calculating the index also takes into account: the time difference in appearance of the initial portions of the artery and kidney curves; the positioning of the region of interest over the distal part of the aorta; the bolus injection into the arteriovenous shunt of the forearm with high specific activity of small volumes of Tc-99m labelled agents; a fast 0.5 seconds study of data collection; and a standard for normalization of numerical data. The reliability of one or the other method tested by simulated time shift of the peak of arterial curves shows that the deviation percentage from the main index value in the unmodified method is 2-5 times greater than in the modified method. The normal value of the perfusion index applying the modified method is 91-171. (author)

  8. Modeling Travel Time Reliability of Road Network Considering Connected Vehicle Guidance Characteristics Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangfeng Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Travel time reliability (TTR is one of the important indexes for effectively evaluating the performance of road network, and TTR can effectively be improved using the real-time traffic guidance information. Compared with traditional traffic guidance, connected vehicle (CV guidance can provide travelers with more timely and accurate travel information, which can further improve the travel efficiency of road network. Five CV characteristics indexes are selected as explanatory variables including the Congestion Level (CL, Penetration Rate (PR, Compliance Rate (CR, release Delay Time (DT, and Following Rate (FR. Based on the five explanatory variables, a TTR model is proposed using the multilogistic regression method, and the prediction accuracy and the impact of characteristics indexes on TTR are analyzed using a CV guidance scenario. The simulation results indicate that 80% of the RMSE is concentrated within the interval of 0 to 0.0412. The correlation analysis of characteristics indexes shows that the influence of CL, PR, CR, and DT on the TTR is significant. PR and CR have a positive effect on TTR, and the average improvement rate is about 77.03% and 73.20% with the increase of PR and CR, respectively, while CL and DT have a negative effect on TTR, and TTR decreases by 31.21% with the increase of DT from 0 to 180 s.

  9. Innovation in drought risk management: exploring the potential of weather index insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglesias, E.; Baez, K.

    2012-04-01

    Many family farming and indigenous communities depend on grazing livestock activities and are particularly prone to drought risks. Vulnerability to drought limits the ability of these households to exit poverty and in many cases leads to environmental degradation. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems and eventually results in welfare losses for rural families. The advantages of farmers who have access to financial tools have been widely acknowledged. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers' access to risk management tools. One of the main problems in insurance design relates to the lack of quality data to estimate the risk premium. In rural areas where there are no historical records of farm production data on adverse events such as drought. New technologies such as remote sensing help to overcome this problem and generate information from these areas that otherwise would be impossible or too expensive to obtain. In this paper, we use a satellite based vegetation index (NDVI) and develop a stochastic model to analyse the potential of index insurance to address the risk of drought in Chilean grazing lands. Our results suggest that contract design is a key issue to improve the correlation of the index with individual farm losses, thus reducing basis risk. In particular, we find that the definition of homogeneous areas and the selection of the triggering index threshold are critical issues and show the incidence of different contract designs on (i) the probability that the farmer experience losses but does not receive compensation (false negative) and (ii) the probability that the index triggers compensation but the farmer does not experience drought losses (false negative). Both aspects are key issues to offer the farmer an adequate protection against droughts and guarantee the affordability of the risk premium.

  10. How wildfire risk is related to urban planning and Fire Weather Index in SE France (1990-2013).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, D M; Carrega, P; Ren, Y; Caillouet, P; Bouillon, C; Robert, S

    2018-04-15

    Wildfires burn >450,000ha of forest every year in Euro-Mediterranean countries. Many fires originate in the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) where housing density and weather conditions affect fire occurrence. Housing density is determined by long term land use policies while weather conditions evolve quickly. The first objective was to quantify the impacts of land use policy on WUI characteristics and fire risk in SE France during 1990-2012. The second objective was to quantify how Fire Weather Index (FWI) is related to fire occurrence. WUI was mapped from 1990, 1999, and 2012 building layers and crossed with a NDVI derived vegetation layer. In all, 12 WUI categories were derived: 4 building density classes and 3 vegetation layers. The I87 FWI was based on daily temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and soil water content. Despite a 30% increase in the number of new buildings, WUI area increased by only 5% as new housing filled in open space in existing WUI area. This trend can be linked to national level urban planning legislation and forest fire protection laws. Major driver variables determining housing location were aspect, slope, and distance to city centers. Fire frequency and burned area were nonlinearly related to FWI: 73% of the 99 fires occurred during weeks with FWI values ≥90 even though these accounted for only 44% of all weeks. Burned area was even more sensitive to FWI since 97% of total burned area occurred during weeks with mean FWI values ≥90. All days with burned areas >100ha had FWI values >150. The study demonstrated that WUI legislation can be an efficient tool to limit WUI fire risk. FWI results suggest the predicted increase in extreme summer heat events with global warming could increase burned area as firefighting resources are stretched beyond capacity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Comparative study of the reliability of MPPT algorithms for the crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules in variable weather conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abraham Dandoussou

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules are widely used as power supply sources in the tropical areas where the weather conditions change abruptly. Fortunately, many MPPT algorithms are implemented to improve their performance. In the other hand, it is well known that these power supply sources are nonlinear dipoles and so, their intrinsic parameters may vary with the irradiance and the temperature. In this paper, the MPPT algorithms widely used, i.e. Perturb and Observe (P&O, Incremental Conductance (INC, Hill-Climbing (HC, are implemented using Matlab®/Simulink® model of a crystalline silicon photovoltaic module whose intrinsic parameters were extracted by fitting the I(V characteristic to experimental points. Comparing the simulation results, it is obvious that the variable step size INC algorithm has the best reliability than both HC and P&O algorithms for the near to real Simulink® model of photovoltaic modules. With a 60 Wp photovoltaic module, the daily maximum power reaches 50.76 W against 34.40 W when the photovoltaic parameters are fixed. Meanwhile, the daily average energy is 263 Wh/day against 195 Wh/day.

  12. Designing time-of-use program based on stochastic security constrained unit commitment considering reliability index

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nikzad, Mehdi; Mozafari, Babak; Bashirvand, Mahdi; Solaymani, Soodabeh; Ranjbar, Ali Mohamad

    2012-01-01

    Recently in electricity markets, a massive focus has been made on setting up opportunities for participating demand side. Such opportunities, also known as demand response (DR) options, are triggered by either a grid reliability problem or high electricity prices. Two important challenges that market operators are facing are appropriate designing and reasonable pricing of DR options. In this paper, time-of-use program (TOU) as a prevalent time-varying program is modeled linearly based on own and cross elasticity definition. In order to decide on TOU rates, a stochastic model is proposed in which the optimum TOU rates are determined based on grid reliability index set by the operator. Expected Load Not Supplied (ELNS) is used to evaluate reliability of the power system in each hour. The proposed stochastic model is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (SMILP) problem and solved using CPLEX solver. The validity of the method is tested over the IEEE 24-bus test system. In this regard, the impact of the proposed pricing method on system load profile; operational costs and required capacity of up- and down-spinning reserve as well as improvement of load factor is demonstrated. Also the sensitivity of the results to elasticity coefficients is investigated. -- Highlights: ► Time-of-use demand response program is linearly modeled. ► A stochastic model is proposed to determine the optimum TOU rates based on ELNS index set by the operator. ► The model is formulated as a short-term two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming problem.

  13. Validity and Reliability Study of Bahasa Malaysia Version of Voice Handicap Index-10.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Fei Ming; Husna Nik Hassan, Nik Fariza; Azman, Mawaddah; Sani, Abdullah; Mat Baki, Marina

    2018-05-21

    This study aimed to determine the validity and reliability of Bahasa Malaysia version of Voice Handicap Index-10 (mVHI-10). This cross-sectional study was carried out in the Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery Department of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia Medical Centre (UKMMC) from June 2015 to May 2016. The mVHI-10 was produced following a rigorous forward and backward translation. One hundred participants, including 50 healthy volunteers (17 male, 33 female) and 50 patients with voice disorders (26 male, 24 female), were recruited to complete the mVHI-10 before flexible laryngoscopic examinations and acoustic analysis. The mVHI-10 was repeated in 2 weeks via telephone interview or clinic visit. Its reliability and validity were assessed using interclass correlation. The test-retest reliability for total mVHI-10 and each item score was high, with the Cronbach alpha of >0.90. The total mVHI-10 score and domain scores were significantly higher (P Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure was 0.92, which depicted excellent construct validity. There was a significant positive correlation between the mVHI-10 score and jitter and shimmer result (P < 0.001). The present study showed good reliability and validity of the mVHI-10 when applied to both healthy volunteers and patients with voice disorders. We recommend the use of the mVHI-10 in daily clinical practice among Bahasa Malaysia-speaking population. Copyright © 2018 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Validity and Reliability of the Persian Version of the Dysphagia Handicap Index (DHI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asadollahpour, Faezeh; Baghban, Kowsar; Asadi, Mozhgan

    2015-05-01

    The Dysphagia Handicap Index (DHI) is one of the instruments used for measuring a dysphagic patient's self-assessment. In some ways, it reflects the patient's quality of life. Although it has been recognized and widely applied in English speaking populations, it has not been used in its present forms in Persian speaking countries. The purpose of this study was to adapt a Persian version of the DHI and to evaluate its validity, consistency, and reliability in the Persian population with oropharyngeal dysphagia. Some stages for cross-cultural adaptation were performed, which consisted in translation, synthesis, back translation, review by an expert committee, and final proof reading. The generated Persian DHI was administered to 85 patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia and 89 control subjects at Zahedan city between May 2013 and August 2013. The patients and control subjects answered the same questionnaire 2 weeks later to verify the test-retest reliability. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability were evaluated. The results of the patients and the control group were compared. The Persian DHI showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficients range from 0.82 to 0.94). Also, good test-retest reliability was found for the total scores of the Persian DHI (r=0.89). There was a significant difference between the DHI scores of the control group and those of the oropharyngeal dysphagia group (P‹0.001). The Persian version of the DHI achieved Face and translation validity. This study demonstrated that the Persian DHI is a valid tool for self-assessment of the handicapping effects of dysphagia on the physical, functional, and emotional aspects of patient life and can be a useful tool for screening and treatment planning for the Persian-speaking dysphagic patients, regardless of the cause or the severity of the dysphagia.

  15. Validity and Reliability of the Persian Version of the Dysphagia Handicap Index (DHI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    faezeh asadollahpour

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Dysphagia Handicap Index (DHI is one of the instruments used for measuring a dysphagic patient’s self-assessment. In some ways, it reflects the patient’s quality of life. Although it has been recognized and widely applied in English speaking populations, it has not been used in its present forms in Persian speaking countries. The purpose of this study was to adapt a Persian version of the DHI and to evaluate its validity, consistency, and reliability in the Persian population with oropharyngeal dysphagia.   Materials and Methods: Some stages for cross-cultural adaptation were performed, which consisted in translation, synthesis, back translation, review by an expert committee, and final proof reading. The generated Persian DHI was administered to 85 patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia and 89 control subjects at Zahedan city between May 2013 and August 2013. The patients and control subjects answered the same questionnaire 2 weeks later to verify the test-retest reliability. Internal consistency and test-retest reliability were evaluated. The results of the patients and the control group were compared.   Results: The Persian DHI showed good internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha coefficients range from 0.82 to 0.94. Also, good test-retest reliability was found for the total scores of the Persian DHI (r=0.89. There was a significant difference between the DHI scores of the control group and those of the oropharyngeal dysphagia group (P‹0.001.   Conclusion:  The Persian version of the DHI achieved Face and translation validity. This study demonstrated that the Persian DHI is a valid tool for self-assessment of the handicapping effects of dysphagia on the physical, functional, and emotional aspects of patient life and can be a useful tool for screening and treatment planning for the Persian-speaking dysphagic patients, regardless of the cause or the severity of the dysphagia.

  16. The Barthel Index: comparing inter-rater reliability between nurses and doctors in an older adult rehabilitation unit.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Hartigan, Irene

    2011-02-01

    To ensure accuracy in recording the Barthel Index (BI) in older people, it is essential to determine who is best placed to administer the index. The aim of this study was to compare doctors\\' and nurses\\' reliability in scoring the BI.

  17. Difficulties in using Oswestry Disability Index in Indian patients and validity and reliability of translator-assisted Oswestry Disability Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aithala, Janardhana P

    2015-06-09

    In Indian patients, in view of language plurality and illiteracy, self-reporting of English version of Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is not practical. Our study aim was to find out to what extent self-reporting of ODI was possible and in cases where self-reporting was not possible, to see validity and reliability of a translator-assisted ODI score. Fifty patients with low backache and who could not use the English version were assessed with ODI with the use of two translators at a gap of 3 h in a test and retest manner. Patients were also asked to report the most important disabling activity in their day-to-day life. A total of 58 questionnaires were filled during the study period out of which eight patients (14%) self-reported English version; while 50 patients needed a translator. The Cronbach's alpha between two translators for the ODI scores of 50 patients was 0.866, but aggregate of difference between two scores for each ODI component shows high difference between two translators for question nos. 3, 9, and 10. Cronbach's alpha was best when item no. 3 was deleted (0.875, translator 1; 0.777, translator 2). Thirty-seven people did not answer the question related to sexual activity. Agreement between two values was assessed using Kendall's tau and was found good (0.585, Spearman's coefficient 0.741). Kendall's tau values correlating total ODI score and individual components show that all the items move together, but correlation was poor for question no. 3 (P value 0.16 for translator 2). Translator-assisted ODI is a good outcome assessment tool in backache assessment in places where validated local language versions are not available, but in Indian patients, inclusion of question nos. 3 and 8 related to weight lifting and sexual function needs to be reviewed.

  18. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  19. Relevance of the study premises in the reliability indexes; Relevancia das premissas de estudo nos indices de confiabilidade

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Camara Neto, Felipe [Furnas Centrais Eletricas S.A, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], email: fcamara@furnas.com.br; Schilling, Marcus Th. [Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) Niteroi, RJ (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Eletrica], E-mail: schilling@ic.uff.br; Silva, Armando M. Leite da [Universidade Federal de Itajuba (UNIFEI), MG (Brazil). Inst. de Sistemas Eletricos e Energia], E-mail: armando@unifei.edu.br

    2009-07-01

    This article gives subsidies for overcoming the difficulties for the conceptual interpretation of the reliability indexes coming from the probabilistic analysis typical of power systems adequacy. Firstly, it is listed a set of factors that contribute to the generation of significant statistic amplitudes of numerical values. After this, a referential paradigm is obtained for the Brazilian test-system of 107 bars, according to the used methodology in various companies in Brazil. Taking as reference the obtained pattern, a set of experiments is done, and it is obtained the variation range of the severity index, and a set of another traditional indexes in the reliability analysis.

  20. The Addiction Severity Index: reliability and validity in a Dutch alcoholic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeJong, C A; Willems, J C; Schippers, G M; Hendriks, V M

    1995-04-01

    The Addiction Severity Index (ASI) was evaluated for its psychometric qualities in a Dutch alcoholic population admitted to an addiction treatment center in The Netherlands. Its factorial structure in this population was found to be consistent with the established six factor structure of the ASI. Reliability analysis revealed that the homogeneity of the subscales was acceptable with the exception of the Alcohol Scale. The six subscales were not highly intercorrelated. The results of this study indicate that the ASI is a useful instrument for the assessment of several problems associated with alcoholism. However, the Alcohol Scale appears to be limited as a diagnostic and research instrument in the field of inpatient treatment of alcohol dependence in The Netherlands.

  1. Is pupillary response a reliable index of word recognition? Evidence from a delayed lexical decision task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haro, Juan; Guasch, Marc; Vallès, Blanca; Ferré, Pilar

    2017-10-01

    Previous word recognition studies have shown that the pupillary response is sensitive to a word's frequency. However, such a pupillary effect may be due to the process of executing a response, instead of being an index of word processing. With the aim of exploring this possibility, we recorded the pupillary responses in two experiments involving a lexical decision task (LDT). In the first experiment, participants completed a standard LDT, whereas in the second they performed a delayed LDT. The delay in the response allowed us to compare pupil dilations with and without the response execution component. The results showed that pupillary response was modulated by word frequency in both the standard and the delayed LDT. This finding supports the reliability of using pupillometry for word recognition research. Importantly, our results also suggest that tasks that do not require a response during pupil recording lead to clearer and stronger effects.

  2. Evaluation of the Validity and Reliability of the Chinese Healthy Eating Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya-Qun Yuan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Chinese Healthy Eating Index (CHEI is a measuring instrument of diet quality in accordance with the Dietary Guidelines for Chinese (DGC-2016. The objective of the study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of the CHEI. Data from 12,473 adults from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS-2011, including 3-day–24-h dietary recalls were used in this study. The CHEI was assessed by four exemplary menus developed by the DGC-2016, the general linear models, the independent t-test and the Mann–Whitney U-test, the Spearman’s correlation analysis, the principal components analysis (PCA, the Cronbach’s coefficient, and the Pearson correlation with nutrient intakes. A higher CHEI score was linked with lower exposure to known risk factors of Chinese diets. The CHEI scored nearly perfect for exemplary menus for adult men (99.8, adult women (99.7, and the healthy elderly (99.1, but not for young children (91.2. The CHEI was able to distinguish the difference in diet quality between smokers and non-smokers (P < 0.0001, people with higher and lower education levels (P < 0.0001, and people living in urban and rural areas (P < 0.0001. Low correlations with energy intake for the CHEI total and component scores (|r| < 0.34, P < 0.01 supported the index assessed diet quality independently of diet quantity. The PCA indicated that underlying multiple dimensions compose the CHEI, and Cronbach’s coefficient α was 0.22. Components of dairy, fruits and cooking oils had the greatest impact on the total score. People with a higher CHEI score had not only a higher absolute intake of nutrients (P < 0.001, but also a more nutrient-dense diet (P < 0.001. Our findings support the validity and reliability of the CHEI when using the 3-day–24-h recalls.

  3. Cross-cultural adaptation, validity, and reliability of the Persian version of the spine functional index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhtarinia, Hamid Reza; Hosseini, Azadeh; Maleki-Ghahfarokhi, Azam; Gabel, Charles Philip; Zohrabi, Majid

    2018-05-15

    There are various instruments and methods to evaluate spinal health and functional status. Whole-spine patient reported outcome (PRO) measures, such as the Spine Functional Index (SFI), assess the spine from the cervical to lumbo-sacral sections as a single kinetic chain. The aim of this study was to cross-culturally adapt the SFI for Persian speaking patients (SFI-Pr) and determine the psychometric properties of reliability and validity (convergent and construct) in a Persian patient population. The SFI (English) PRO was translated into Persian according to published guidelines. Consecutive symptomatic spine patients (104 female and 120 male aged between 18 and 60) were recruited from three Iranian physiotherapy centers. Test-retest reliability was performed in a sub-sample (n = 31) at baseline and repeated between days 3-7. Convergent validity was determined by calculating the Pearson's r correlation coefficient between the SFI-Pr and the Persian Roland Morris Questionnaire (RMQ) for back pain patients and the Neck Disability Index (NDI) for neck patients. Internal consistency was assessed using Cronbach's α. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) used Maximum Likelihood Extraction followed by Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). High levels of internal consistency (α = 0.81, item range = 0.78-0.82) and test-retest reliability (r = 0.96, item range = 0.83-0.98) were obtained. Convergent validity was very good between the SFI and RMQ (r = 0.69) and good between the SFI and NDI (r = 0.57). The EFA from the perspective of parsimony suggests a one-factor solution that explained 26.5% of total variance. The CFA was inconclusive of the one factor structure as the sample size was inadequate. There were no floor or ceiling effects. The SFI-Pr PRO can be applied as a specific whole-spine status assessment instrument for clinical and research studies in Persian language populations.

  4. Estimating the reliability of glycemic index values and potential sources of methodological and biological variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthan, Nirupa R; Ausman, Lynne M; Meng, Huicui; Tighiouart, Hocine; Lichtenstein, Alice H

    2016-10-01

    The utility of glycemic index (GI) values for chronic disease risk management remains controversial. Although absolute GI value determinations for individual foods have been shown to vary significantly in individuals with diabetes, there is a dearth of data on the reliability of GI value determinations and potential sources of variability among healthy adults. We examined the intra- and inter-individual variability in glycemic response to a single food challenge and methodologic and biological factors that potentially mediate this response. The GI value for white bread was determined by using standardized methodology in 63 volunteers free from chronic disease and recruited to differ by sex, age (18-85 y), and body mass index [BMI (in kg/m 2 ): 20-35]. Volunteers randomly underwent 3 sets of food challenges involving glucose (reference) and white bread (test food), both providing 50 g available carbohydrates. Serum glucose and insulin were monitored for 5 h postingestion, and GI values were calculated by using different area under the curve (AUC) methods. Biochemical variables were measured by using standard assays and body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The mean ± SD GI value for white bread was 62 ± 15 when calculated by using the recommended method. Mean intra- and interindividual CVs were 20% and 25%, respectively. Increasing sample size, replication of reference and test foods, and length of blood sampling, as well as AUC calculation method, did not improve the CVs. Among the biological factors assessed, insulin index and glycated hemoglobin values explained 15% and 16% of the variability in mean GI value for white bread, respectively. These data indicate that there is substantial variability in individual responses to GI value determinations, demonstrating that it is unlikely to be a good approach to guiding food choices. Additionally, even in healthy individuals, glycemic status significantly contributes to the variability in GI value

  5. Emergency Severity Index version 4: a valid and reliable tool in pediatric emergency department triage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Nicole A; Durani, Yamini; Brecher, Deena; DePiero, Andrew; Loiselle, John; Attia, Magdy

    2012-08-01

    The Emergency Severity Index version 4 (ESI v.4) is the most recently implemented 5-level triage system. The validity and reliability of this triage tool in the pediatric population have not been extensively established. The goals of this study were to assess the validity of ESI v.4 in predicting hospital admission, emergency department (ED) length of stay (LOS), and number of resources utilized, as well as its reliability in a prospective cohort of pediatric patients. The first arm of the study was a retrospective chart review of 780 pediatric patients presenting to a pediatric ED to determine the validity of ESI v.4. Abstracted data included acuity level assigned by the triage nurse using ESI v.4 algorithm, disposition (admission vs discharge), LOS, and number of resources utilized in the ED. To analyze the validity of ESI v.4, patients were divided into 2 groups for comparison: higher-acuity patients (ESI levels 1, 2, and 3) and lower-acuity patients (ESI levels 4 and 5). Pearson χ analysis was performed for categorical variables. For continuous variables, we conducted a comparison of means based on parametric distribution of variables. The second arm was a prospective cohort study to determine the interrater reliability of ESI v.4 among and between pediatric triage (PT) nurses and pediatric emergency medicine (PEM) physicians. Three raters (2 PT nurses and 1 PEM physician) independently assigned triage scores to 100 patients; k and interclass correlation coefficient were calculated among PT nurses and between the primary PT nurses and physicians. In the validity arm, the distribution of ESI score levels among the 780 cases are as follows: ESI 1: 2 (0.25%); ESI 2: 73 (9.4%); ESI 3: 289 (37%); ESI 4: 251 (32%); and ESI 5: 165 (21%). Hospital admission rates by ESI level were 1: 100%, 2: 42%, 3: 14.9%, 4: 1.2%, and 5: 0.6%. The admission rate of the higher-acuity group (76/364, 21%) was significantly greater than the lower-acuity group (4/415, 0.96%), P group was

  6. Reliability of a Novel CBCT-Based 3D Classification System for Maxillary Canine Impactions in Orthodontics: The KPG Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visconti, Luca; Martin, Conchita

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate both intra- and interoperator reliability of a radiological three-dimensional classification system (KPG index) for the assessment of degree of difficulty for orthodontic treatment of maxillary canine impactions. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans of fifty impacted canines, obtained using three different scanners (NewTom, Kodak, and Planmeca), were classified using the KPG index by three independent orthodontists. Measurements were repeated one month later. Based on these two sessions, several recommendations on KPG Index scoring were elaborated. After a joint calibration session, these recommendations were explained to nine orthodontists and the two measurement sessions were repeated. There was a moderate intrarater agreement in the precalibration measurement sessions. After the calibration session, both intra- and interrater agreement were almost perfect. Indexes assessed with Kodak Dental Imaging 3D module software showed a better reliability in z-axis values, whereas indexes assessed with Planmeca Romexis software showed a better reliability in x- and y-axis values. No differences were found between the CBCT scanners used. Taken together, these findings indicate that the application of the instructions elaborated during this study improved KPG index reliability, which was nevertheless variously influenced by the use of different software for images evaluation. PMID:24235889

  7. Reliability of a Novel CBCT-Based 3D Classification System for Maxillary Canine Impactions in Orthodontics: The KPG Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Dalessandri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate both intra- and interoperator reliability of a radiological three-dimensional classification system (KPG index for the assessment of degree of difficulty for orthodontic treatment of maxillary canine impactions. Cone beam computed tomography (CBCT scans of fifty impacted canines, obtained using three different scanners (NewTom, Kodak, and Planmeca, were classified using the KPG index by three independent orthodontists. Measurements were repeated one month later. Based on these two sessions, several recommendations on KPG Index scoring were elaborated. After a joint calibration session, these recommendations were explained to nine orthodontists and the two measurement sessions were repeated. There was a moderate intrarater agreement in the precalibration measurement sessions. After the calibration session, both intra- and interrater agreement were almost perfect. Indexes assessed with Kodak Dental Imaging 3D module software showed a better reliability in z-axis values, whereas indexes assessed with Planmeca Romexis software showed a better reliability in x- and y-axis values. No differences were found between the CBCT scanners used. Taken together, these findings indicate that the application of the instructions elaborated during this study improved KPG index reliability, which was nevertheless variously influenced by the use of different software for images evaluation.

  8. Nottingham Prognostic Index in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: a reliable prognostic tool?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albergaria, André; Ricardo, Sara; Milanezi, Fernanda; Carneiro, Vítor; Amendoeira, Isabel; Vieira, Daniella; Cameselle-Teijeiro, Jorge; Schmitt, Fernando

    2011-01-01

    A breast cancer prognostic tool should ideally be applicable to all types of invasive breast lesions. A number of studies have shown histopathological grade to be an independent prognostic factor in breast cancer, adding prognostic power to nodal stage and tumour size. The Nottingham Prognostic Index has been shown to accurately predict patient outcome in stratified groups with a follow-up period of 15 years after primary diagnosis of breast cancer. Clinically, breast tumours that lack the expression of Oestrogen Receptor, Progesterone Receptor and Human Epidermal growth factor Receptor 2 (HER2) are identified as presenting a 'triple-negative' phenotype or as triple-negative breast cancers. These poor outcome tumours represent an easily recognisable prognostic group of breast cancer with aggressive behaviour that currently lack the benefit of available systemic therapy. There are conflicting results on the prevalence of lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis in triple-negative breast cancer patients but it is currently accepted that triple-negative breast cancer does not metastasize to axillary nodes and bones as frequently as the non-triple-negative carcinomas, favouring instead, a preferentially haematogenous spread. Hypothetically, this particular tumour dissemination pattern would impair the reliability of using Nottingham Prognostic Index as a tool for triple-negative breast cancer prognostication. The present study tested the effectiveness of the Nottingham Prognostic Index in stratifying breast cancer patients of different subtypes with special emphasis in a triple-negative breast cancer patient subset versus non- triple-negative breast cancer. We demonstrated that besides the fact that TNBC disseminate to axillary lymph nodes as frequently as luminal or HER2 tumours, we also showed that TNBC are larger in size compared with other subtypes and almost all grade 3. Additionally, survival curves demonstrated that these prognostic factors are

  9. Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

    2009-12-01

    In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated

  10. Pricing Weather Index Insurance Based on Artificial Controlled Experiment - A Case Study of Cold Temperature for Early Rice in Jiangxi, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    SUN, Q.; Yang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The growth of early rice is often threated by a phenomenon known as Grain Buds Cold, a period of anomalously cold temperature that occurs during the booting and flowering stage. Therefore, quantifying the impact of weather on crop yield is a core issue in design of weather index insurance. A high yield loss will lead to an increasing premium rate. In this paper, we explored a new way to investigate the relationship between yield loss rate and cold temperature durations. A two-year artificial controlled experiment was used to build logarithm and linear yield loss model. Moreover, an information diffusion model was applied to calculate the probability of different durations which lasting for 3-20 days. The results show that pure premium rates of logarithm yield loss model had better premium rates performance than that of linear yield loss model. The premium rates of Grain Buds Cold Weather Index Insurance fluctuated between 7.085% and 10.151% in Jiangxi Province. Compared with common statistical methods, the artificial controlled experiment provides an easier and more robust way to determine the relationship between yield and single meteorological factor. Meanwhile, this experiment would be very important for some regions where were lacking in historical yield data and climate data and could help farmers cope with extreme cold weather risks under varying weather conditions.

  11. Adaptation of the Oswestry Disability Index to Kannada Language and Evaluation of Its Validity and Reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohan, Venkatdeep; G S, Prashanth; Meravanigi, Gururaja; N, Rajagopalan; Yerramshetty, Janardhan

    2016-06-01

    A translation, cross-cultural adaptation, and validation study. The aim of this study was to translate, adapt cross-culturally, and validate the Kannada version of the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI). Low back pain is recognized as an important public health problem. Self-administered condition-specific questionnaires are important tools for assessing a patient. For low backache, the ODI is used widely. Preferred language of a region can have an effect on interpretation of questions and thus scoring. A search of literature showed no previously validated Kannada version of the ODI. Cross-cultural adaptation and translation was carried out according to previously set guidelines. Patients were recruited from the orthopedic outpatient department. They filled out a booklet containing the Kannada version of the ODI, Kannada version of the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ), and a 10-point visual analog scale for pain (VASpain). The Kannada ODI was answered by 91 patients and retested in 35 patients. After removing questionnaires with stray or ambiguous markings causing difficulty in computation of scores, 76 test questionnaires and 32 retest questionnaires were available for statistical analysis. The Kannada version showed an excellent internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha = 0.92). The Kannada version of the ODI showed good correlation with the RMDQ (r = 0.72) and moderate correlation with VASpain (r = 0.58). It also showed an excellent test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.96). Standard error of measurement (SEM) was also low (4.08) and a difference of 11 points is the "Minimum Detectable Change (MDC)." The Kannada version of the ODI that was developed showed consistency and reliability. It can be used for assessment of low back pain and treatment outcomes in Kannada-speaking populations. However, in view of a smaller sample size, it will benefit from verification at multiple centers and with more patients. 3.

  12. The development, validity, and reliability of the Addiction Profile Index (API).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ögel, Kültegin; Evren, Cüneyt; Karadağ, Figen; Gürol, Defne Tamar

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a practical questionnaire for multidimensional assessment of problems associated with alcohol and substance abuse that would also be useful for treatment planning. The Addiction Profile Index (API) is a self-report questionnaire consisting of 37 items and the following 5 subscales: characteristics of substance use; dependency diagnosis; the effects of subsance use on the user; craving; motivation to quit using substances. The study included 345 alcohol and/or substance abusers from 2 addiction treatment clinics and a prison addiction service. The validity of the questionnaire was assessed using the Michigan Alcoholism Screening Test (MAST), Readiness to Change Questionnaire (SOCRATES), Penn Alcohol Craving Scale (PACS), Drug Craving Scale (DCS), Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders (SCID-I), and Addiction Severity Index (ASI). The Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the total API was 0.89 and for the subscales it ranged from 0.63 to 0.86. Item-total correlation coefficients ranged from 0.42 to 0.89. The Spearman Brown split-half method coefficient for the total API was 0.83. In all, 4 factors were obtained using explanatory factor analysis that represented 52.3% of the total variance. The API craving subscale was observed to be consistent with PACS and the API motivation subscale was consistent with SOCRATES. The API total score was strongly correlated with the mean MAST score, and the composite ASI medical status, substance use, legal status, and family social relations subscale scores. Based on ROC analyses, the area under curve was 0.90. With a total API cut-off score of 4, the scale's sensitivity and specificity 0.85 was 0.78, respectively. The findings show that the API is a valid and reliable questionnaire that can be used to measure the severity of different dimensions of substance dependency.

  13. Reliability and validity of the Korean version of Pediatric Voice Handicap Index: in school age children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Shin; Kwon, Tack-Kyun; Choi, Seong Hee; Lee, Won Yong; Hong, Young Hye; Jeong, Nyun Gi; Sung, Myung-Whun; Kim, Kwang Hyun

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and validity of the Pediatric Voice Handicap Index (pVHI) for cross-cultural adaptation of the Korean version with school age children. The questionnaire was translated into Korean and was completed by 101 Korean parents who have children with or without disordered voice. The Korean version-pVHI scores were obtained with 60 parents of normal children and 41 parents who have children with voice problems. Content validity was verified by five experienced speech-language pathologists with clinical specialization in voice disorders. Internal consistency was calculated through Cronbach's α coefficient and test-retest reliability of the Korean version-pVHI score was determined using Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients. Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare GRBAS with the Korean version-pVHI scores between normal and dysphonia group. The relationship between the parent-reported the Korean version-pVHI total scores and perceptual ratings of voice quality from experts was investigated using Spearman correlation coefficients. The results showed that the Korean version-pVHI provided a high internal consistency (α=0.92) and test-retest reliability of its subscales: total (T) 0.97, functional (F) 0.90, physical (P) 0.95, emotional (E) 0.92. The Korean version-pVHI mean scores in normal group were 1.28 (T), 0.62 (F), 0.35 (P) and 0.32 (E), respectively whereas those of the Korean version-pVHI in children group with dysphonia were 23.13 (T), 8.90 (F), 9.54 (P) and 4.93 (E). Significant differences in the Korean version-pVHI (T, F, P, E) and perceptual evaluation (grade, rough, breathy) between normal and dysphonia group were revealed (PKorean version-pVHI parameters (T) and perceptual measures (G) was exhibited in children with dysphonia. The subjective Korean version-pVHI can be applicable and useful supplementary tool for evaluating parents' perception of their children's voice dysfunction, identifying

  14. Performance of intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) as a reliability index under various distributions in scale reliability studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Shraddha; Bastero-Caballero, Rowena F; Sun, Yijun; Zhu, Ray; Murphy, Diane K; Hardas, Bhushan; Koch, Gary

    2018-04-29

    Many published scale validation studies determine inter-rater reliability using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC). However, the use of this statistic must consider its advantages, limitations, and applicability. This paper evaluates how interaction of subject distribution, sample size, and levels of rater disagreement affects ICC and provides an approach for obtaining relevant ICC estimates under suboptimal conditions. Simulation results suggest that for a fixed number of subjects, ICC from the convex distribution is smaller than ICC for the uniform distribution, which in turn is smaller than ICC for the concave distribution. The variance component estimates also show that the dissimilarity of ICC among distributions is attributed to the study design (ie, distribution of subjects) component of subject variability and not the scale quality component of rater error variability. The dependency of ICC on the distribution of subjects makes it difficult to compare results across reliability studies. Hence, it is proposed that reliability studies should be designed using a uniform distribution of subjects because of the standardization it provides for representing objective disagreement. In the absence of uniform distribution, a sampling method is proposed to reduce the non-uniformity. In addition, as expected, high levels of disagreement result in low ICC, and when the type of distribution is fixed, any increase in the number of subjects beyond a moderately large specification such as n = 80 does not have a major impact on ICC. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Reliability and validity of the Yoruba version of the Oswestry disability index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiyegbusi, Ayoola Ibifubara; Akodu, Ashiyat Kehinde; Agbede, Eniolorunda Olajide

    2017-01-01

    Low back pain (LBP) is a major cause of disability, and the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is a validated assessment tool for evaluating disability in LBP patients. Cross-cultural adaptation of the ODI is important because not all populations are proficient in English. The Yoruba language is an indigenous language spoken by 40 million people in the Western part of Nigeria and some countries in West Africa and Latin America. Currently, no validated Yoruba version of ODI is available. The aim of the study was to translate, culturally adapt and validate the ODI in Yoruba language for participants with LBP. The ODI was translated into Yoruba, and this translated version was analysed in terms of semantics and linguistics. Then, the Yoruba version was translated back into English and both versions administered to 160 participants with LBP. The internal consistency using Cronbach's alpha coefficient, criterion validity and test-retest reliability were assessed using Spearman's rank correlation with significance set at Pdisability in LBP patients.

  16. Establishment of the reliability and validity of the Stress Index for Children or Adolescents with Tourette Syndrome (SICATS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Kuo-Yu; Wang, Huei-Shyong; Chang, Hsueh-Ling; Wang, Yi-Wen; See, Lai-Chu

    2010-02-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reliability of the stress index for 10-18-years-old children or adolescents with Tourette syndrome. Tourette syndrome is a chronic tic disorder, which occurs in childhood. Children with Tourette syndrome exhibit sudden and unexpected voices or movements that may have influence on their daily activities and cause interaction barriers for children with Tourette syndrome. Therefore, a self-report stress index is necessary for children with Tourette syndrome to quickly measure the stress they have. Eight experts rated appropriateness, comprehensiveness and relevance of the questionnaire to establish content validity. A total of 116 paediatric patients filled out the stress index for 10-18-years-old children or adolescents with Tourette syndrome to evaluate its construct validity using exploratory factor analysis and internal consistency. Data from 90 pairs of paediatric patients and their caregivers were used to evaluate the inter-rater reliability. The criterion validity index ranged from 80-98%. One item was deleted because of a small item-to-total correlation. Therefore, 26 items made up the final stress index for 10-18-years-old children or adolescents with Tourette syndrome. In exploratory factor analysis, four factors (unfairly treated, psychological, symptom control and future concern) were achieved and accounted for 52.3% of the total variance. Cronbach's alphas of the stress index for 10-18-years-old children or adolescents with Tourette syndrome were 0.89. The inter-rater reliability of stress Index for 10-18-years-old children or adolescents with Tourette syndrome (Pearson correlation coefficient between patients and their caregivers) was 0.56. The stress Index for 10-18-years-old children or adolescents with Tourette syndrome is a self-administered tool to assess the stress of children or adolescents with Tourette syndrome. Validity (content and construct) and reliability (internal consistency and inter

  17. How reliable is the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The aim for this research is to evaluate the ability of the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to produce hydrological, e.g. evaporation (ET), soil moisture (SM), runoff, and baseflow. First, the VIC mo...

  18. Reliability and validity study of the Finnish version 2.0 of the oswestry disability index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pekkanen, Liisa; Kautiainen, Hannu; Ylinen, Jari; Salo, Petri; Häkkinen, Arja

    2011-02-15

    Prospective clinical validation study. The aims of this study were to translate into Finnish and culturally adapt and study the psycho-metric properties of the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) version 2.0. The ODI is one of the most commonly reported back-specific disability questionnaires. It is widely used both in clinical work and in medical studies. To date, no validated Finnish version of the ODI version 2.0 has been reported. The ODI version 2.0 was translated into the Finnish language. A total of 115 patients with back pain, referred by the primary care physician to the outpatient clinic of the department of physical medicine and rehabilitation, were recruited for this study. The patients answered a questionnaire package that included the Finnish ODI 2.0, Back Pain Questionnaire for Visual Analogue Assessment (Million-VAS), Visual Analogue Scales of back and leg pain (VASback, VASleg), the Depressions Scale, and a question on their subjectively perceived health. The package was administered twice; 2 weeks before and at the arrival to the clinic. Reproducibility of the ODI was 0.90 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.85-0.94) and the internal consistency was 0.86 (95% CI = 0.81-0.90). Factor analysis showed that the ODI was loaded on 2 factors, which explained 51% of the total variance. In testing convergent validity ODI correlated with Million-VAS, r = 0.75 (95% CI = 0.64-0.84); VASback, r = 0.48 (95% CI = 0.32-0.62); and VAS leg, r = 0.41 (95% CI = 0.23-0.57). The Finnish ODI version 2.0 proved to be a valid and reliable instrument that showed psychometric properties comparable with the original English version. Therefore, it can be used in assessing the disability among Finnish-speaking patients with back pain for both clinical and scientific purposes.

  19. Reliability of ultrasonographic measurements in suspected patients of developmental dysplasia of the hip and correlation with the acetabular index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cem Copuroglu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ultrasonography is accepted as a useful imaging modality in the early detection of developmental dysplasia of the hip (DDH. Early detection and early treatment of DDH prevents hip dislocation and related physical, social, economic, and psychological problems. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability of ultrasonographic and roentgenographic measurements measured by seven different observers. Materials and Methods: The alpha angles of 66 hips in 33 patients were measured using the Graf method by seven different observers. Acetabular index degrees on plane roentgenograms were measured in order to assess the correlation between the ultrasonographic alpha angle and the radiographic acetabular index, which both show the bony acetabular depth, retrospectively. Results: The interclass correlation coefficient, measuring the interobserver reliability, was high and statistically significant for the ultrasonographic measurements. There was a negative correlation between the alpha angle and the acetabular index. Conclusions: Ultrasonography, when applied properly, is a reliable technique between different observers, in the diagnosis and follow up of DDH. When assessed concomitantly with the roentgenographic measurements, the results are reliable and statistically meaningful.

  20. A Malay version of the Child Oral Impacts on Daily Performances (Child-OIDP index: assessing validity and reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusof Zamros YM

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The study aimed to develop and test a Malay version of the Child-OIDP index, evaluate its psychometric properties and report on the prevalence of oral impacts on eight daily performances in a sample of 11–12 year old Malaysian schoolchildren. Methods The Child-OIDP index was translated from English into Malay. The Malay version was tested for reliability and validity on a non-random sample of 132, 11–12 year old schoolchildren from two urban schools in Kuala Lumpur. Psychometric analysis of the Malay Child-OIDP involved face, content, criterion and construct validity tests as well as internal and test-retest reliability. Non-parametric statistical methods were used to assess relationships between Child-OIDP scores and other subjective outcome measures. Results The standardised Cronbach’s alpha was 0.80 and the weighted Kappa was 0.84 (intraclass correlation = 0.79. The index showed significant associations with different subjective measures viz. perceived satisfaction with mouth, perceived needs for dental treatment, perceived oral health status and toothache experience in the previous 3 months (p  Conclusion This study indicated that the Malay Child-OIDP index is a valid and reliable instrument to measure the oral impacts of daily performances in 11–12 year old urban schoolchildren in Malaysia.

  1. The reliability of three psoriasis assessment tools: Psoriasis area and severity index, body surface area and physician global assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bożek, Agnieszka; Reich, Adam

    2017-08-01

    A wide variety of psoriasis assessment tools have been proposed to evaluate the severity of psoriasis in clinical trials and daily practice. The most frequently used clinical instrument is the psoriasis area and severity index (PASI); however, none of the currently published severity scores used for psoriasis meets all the validation criteria required for an ideal score. The aim of this study was to compare and assess the reliability of 3 commonly used assessment instruments for psoriasis severity: the psoriasis area and severity index (PASI), body surface area (BSA) and physician global assessment (PGA). On the scoring day, 10 trained dermatologists evaluated 9 adult patients with plaque-type psoriasis using the PASI, BSA and PGA. All the subjects were assessed twice by each physician. Correlations between the assessments were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient. Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated to analyze intra-rater reliability, and the coefficient of variation (CV) was used to assess inter-rater variability. Significant correlations were observed among the 3 scales in both assessments. In all 3 scales the ICCs were > 0.75, indicating high intra-rater reliability. The highest ICC was for the BSA (0.96) and the lowest one for the PGA (0.87). The CV for the PGA and PASI were 29.3 and 36.9, respectively, indicating moderate inter-rater variability. The CV for the BSA was 57.1, indicating high inter-rater variability. Comparing the PASI, PGA and BSA, it was shown that the PGA had the highest inter-rater reliability, whereas the BSA had the highest intra-rater reliability. The PASI showed intermediate values in terms of interand intra-rater reliability. None of the 3 assessment instruments showed a significant advantage over the other. A reliable assessment of psoriasis severity requires the use of several independent evaluations simultaneously.

  2. Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong

    1992-07-01

    This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

  3. A reliable and valid index was developed to measure appropriate psychotropic drug use in dementia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Spek, K.; Gerritsen, D.L.; Smalbrugge, M.; Nelissen-Vrancken, M.H.J.M.; Wetzels, R.B.; Smeets, C.H.W.; Zuidema, S.U.; Koopmans, R.T.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to develop an index derived from the Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI) items that is suited for clinical studies evaluating appropriateness of psychotropic drug use (PDU) for neuropsychiatric symptoms (NPS) in patients with dementia in nursing homes and to

  4. The Neck Disability Index-Russian Language Version (NDI-RU): A Study of Validity and Reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakhtadze, Maxim A; Vernon, Howard; Zakharova, Olga B; Kuzminov, Kirill O; Bolotov, Dmitry A

    2015-07-15

    Cross-cultural adaptation and psychometric testing. To perform a validated Russian translation and then to evaluate the validity and reliability of the Russian language version of the Neck Disability Index (NDI-RU). Neck pain is highly prevalent and can greatly affect daily activity. The Neck Disability Index (NDI) is the most frequently used scale for self-rating of disability due to neck pain. Its translated versions are applied in many countries. However, the Russian language version of the NDI has not been developed yet. Cross-cultural adaptation of the NDI-RU was performed according to established guidelines. Then, the NDI-RU was evaluated for content validity, concurrent criterion validity, internal consistency, test-retest reliability, factor structure, and minimum detectable change. Two hundred thirty-two patients took part in the study in total: 109 in validity (39.5 ± 10 yr), 123 in reliability (38.4 ± 11 yr; 80 in the test-retest phase). A culturally valid translation was achieved. NDI-RU total scores were distributed normally. Floor/ceiling effects were absent. Good values of Cronbach α were obtained for each item (from 0.80 to 0.84) and for the total NDI-RU (0.83). A 2-factor solution was found for the NDI-RU. The average interitem correlation coefficient was 0.53. Intraclass correlation coefficients for test-retest reliability coefficients ranged from 0.65 to 0.92 for different items and 0.91 for the total NDI-RU. Moderate correlation (Spearman rs = 0.62; P Russian language version of the Neck Disability Index resulted in a valid, reliable instrument that can be used both in clinical practice and scientific investigations. 1.

  5. Turkish Version of the Student Nurse Stress Index: Validity and Reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gamze Sarikoc, PhD, RN

    2017-06-01

    Conclusion: Results showed that the SNSI had a satisfactory level of reliability and validity in nursing students in Turkey. Multicenter studies including nursing students from different nursing schools are recommended for the SNSI to be generalized.

  6. Intra- and interrater reliability and agreement of the Danish version of the Dynamic Gait Index in older people with balance impairments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jønsson, Line R; Kristensen, Morten; Tibaek, Sigrid

    2011-01-01

    To examine the intrarater and interrater reliability and agreement of the Danish version of the Dynamic Gait Index (DGI) in hospitalized and community-dwelling older people with balance impairments.......To examine the intrarater and interrater reliability and agreement of the Danish version of the Dynamic Gait Index (DGI) in hospitalized and community-dwelling older people with balance impairments....

  7. Inter-rater reliability of h-index scores calculated by Web of Science and Scopus for clinical epidemiology scientists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Benjamin; Alavifard, Sepand; Roberts, Surain; Lanes, Andrea; Ramsay, Tim; Boet, Sylvain

    2016-06-01

    We investigated the inter-rater reliability of Web of Science (WoS) and Scopus when calculating the h-index of 25 senior scientists in the Clinical Epidemiology Program of the Ottawa Hospital Research Institute. Bibliometric information and the h-indices for the subjects were computed by four raters using the automatic calculators in WoS and Scopus. Correlation and agreement between ratings was assessed using Spearman's correlation coefficient and a Bland-Altman plot, respectively. Data could not be gathered from Google Scholar due to feasibility constraints. The Spearman's rank correlation between the h-index of scientists calculated with WoS was 0.81 (95% CI 0.72-0.92) and with Scopus was 0.95 (95% CI 0.92-0.99). The Bland-Altman plot showed no significant rater bias in WoS and Scopus; however, the agreement between ratings is higher in Scopus compared to WoS. Our results showed a stronger relationship and increased agreement between raters when calculating the h-index of a scientist using Scopus compared to WoS. The higher inter-rater reliability and simple user interface used in Scopus may render it the more effective database when calculating the h-index of senior scientists in epidemiology. © 2016 Health Libraries Group.

  8. Novel Threat-risk Index Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Human Reliability Analysis - Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George A. Beitel

    2004-02-01

    In support of a national need to improve the current state-of-the-art in alerting decision makers to the risk of terrorist attack, a quantitative approach employing scientific and engineering concepts to develop a threat-risk index was undertaken at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). As a result of this effort, a set of models has been successfully integrated into a single comprehensive model known as Quantitative Threat-Risk Index Model (QTRIM), with the capability of computing a quantitative threat-risk index on a system level, as well as for the major components of the system. Such a threat-risk index could provide a quantitative variant or basis for either prioritizing security upgrades or updating the current qualitative national color-coded terrorist threat alert.

  9. Reliability testing across the Environmental Quality Index and national environmental indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    One challenge in environmental epidemiology is the exploration of cumulative environmental exposure across multiple domains (e.g. air, water, land). The Environmental Quality Index (EQI), created by the U.S. EPA, uses principle component analyses combining environmental domains (...

  10. Cumulative trauma disorders in the upper extremities: reliability of the postural and repetitive risk-factors index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, C P; Harburn, K L; Kramer, J F

    1997-08-01

    This study addresses test-retest reliability of the Postural and Repetitive Risk-Factors Index (PRRI) for work-related upper body injuries. This assessment was developed by the present authors. A repeated measures design was used to assess the test-retest reliability of a videotaped work-site assessment of subjects' movements. Ten heavy users of video display terminals (VDTs) from a local banking industry participated in the study. The 10 subjects' movements were videotaped for 2 hours on each of 2 separate days, while working on-site at their VDTs. The videotaped assessment, which utilized known postural risk factors for developing musculoskeletal disorder, pain, and discomfort in heavy VDT users (ie, repetitiveness, awkward and static postures, and contraction time), was called the PRRI. The videotaped movement assessments were subsequently analyzed in 15-minute sessions (five sessions per 2-hour videotape, which produced a total of 10 sessions over the 2 testing days), and each session was chosen randomly from the videotape. The subjects' movements were given a postural risk score according to the criteria in the PRRI. Each subject was therefore tested a total of 10 times (ie, 10 sessions), over two days. The maximum PRRI score for both sides of the body was 216 points. Reliability coefficients (RCs) for the PRRI scores were calculated, and the reliability of any one session met the minimum criterion for excellent reliability, which was .75. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) confirmed that there was no statistically significant difference between sessions (p < .05). Calculations using the standard error of measurement (SEM) indicated that an individual tested once, on one day and with a PRRI score of 25, required a change of at least 8 points in order to be confident that a true change in score had occurred. The significant results from the reliability tests indicated that the PRRI was a reliable measurement tool that could be used by occupational health

  11. Urbanization Alters the Influence of Weather and an Index of Forest Productivity on Avian Community Richness and Guild Abundance in the Seattle Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Shryock

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Fluctuations in weather and forest productivity influence the abundance and richness of bird populations, however in a rapidly urbanizing landscape the relative importance of each factor may vary. We assessed this possibility in the Seattle, WA, USA region by correlating 10 years of bird richness and relative abundance of nine guilds indicative of their tolerance of human development, migration, diet and use of human food subsidies with an annual index of forest productivity (vegetation greenness derived from a 250 m resolution Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI product from the MODIS satellite and weather (variation in the Oceanic Niño Index, which estimates the strength of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a major driver of local temperature and precipitation. We found that variation in NDVI exerted a strong influence on the richness of the avian community and the abundance of guilds in landscapes undergoing active development, but was less influential in areas of established housing development or forested reserves. Relative to NDVI, weather was much less influential on the abundance of guilds at actively changing sites, and slightly more influential in forest reserves and established developments. Following the warm winter and during the dry summer associated with a strong El Niño, migrants and herbivores declined in changing landscapes, insectivores declined in established developments, and herbivores declined while synanthropic species increased in reserves. These changes may presage the effects of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, which are expected to be similar to El Niño conditions. To buffer these changes in native bird communities, planners, developers, regulators, and home owners should minimize the loss of vegetation during development and attempt to quickly achieve mature landscaping that preferably provides food and shelter for birds.

  12. The 'Hub Disruption Index', a reliable index sensitive to the brain networks reorganization. A study of the contralesional hemisphere in stroke

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maite Termenon

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Stroke, resulting in focal structural damage, induces changes in brain function at both local and global levels. Following stroke, cerebral networks present structural and functional reorganization to compensate for the dysfunctioning provoked by the lesion itself and its remote effects. As some recent studies underlined the role of the contralesional hemisphere during recovery, we studied its role %of the contralesional hemispherein the reorganization of brain function of stroke patients using resting state fMRI and graph theory. We explored this reorganization using the 'hub disruption index' (kappa, a global index sensitive to the reorganization of nodes within the graph. For a given graph metric, kappa of a subject corresponds to the slope of the linear regression model between the mean local network measures of a reference group, and the difference between that reference and the subject under study. In order to translate the use of kappa in clinical context, a prerequisite to achieve meaningful results is to investigate the reliability of this index. In a preliminary part, we studied the reliability of kappa by computing the intraclass correlation coefficient in a cohort of 100 subjects from the Human Connectome Project. Then, we measured intra-hemispheric kappa index in the contralesional hemisphere of 20 subacute stroke patients compared to 20 age-matched healthy controls. Finally, due to the small number of patients, we tested the robustness of our results repeating the experiment 1000 times by bootstrapping on the Human Connectome Project database. Statistical analysis showed a significant reduction of kappa for the contralesional hemisphere of right stroke patients compared to healthy controls. Similar results were observed for the right contralesional hemisphere of left stroke patients. We showed that kappa, is more reliable than global graph metrics and more sensitive to detect differences between groups of patients as compared to

  13. The Locomotor Capabilities Index; validity and reliability of the Swedish version in adults with lower limb amputation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andersson Ingemar H

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Locomotor Capabilities Index (LCI is a validated measure of lower-limb amputees' ability to perform activities with prosthesis. We have developed the LCI Swedish version and evaluated its validity and reliability. Methods Cross-cultural adaptation to Swedish included forward/backward translations and field testing. The Swedish LCI was then administered to 144 amputees (55 women, mean age 74 (40–93 years, attending post-rehabilitation prosthetic training. Construct validity was assessed by examining the relationship between the LCI and Timed "Up-and-Go" (TUG test and between the LCI and EQ-5D health utility index in 2 subgroups of 40 and 20 amputees, respectively. Discriminative validity was assessed by comparing scores in different age groups and in unilateral and bilateral amputees. Test-retest reliability (1–2 weeks was evaluated in 20 amputees (14 unilateral. Results The Swedish LCI showed good construct convergent validity, with high correlation with the TUG (r = -0.75 and the EQ-5D (r = 0.84, and discriminative validity, with significantly worse mean scores for older than younger and for bilateral than unilateral amputees (p Conclusion The Swedish version of the LCI demonstrated good validity and internal consistency in adult amputees. Test-retest reliability in a small subsample appears to be acceptable. The high ceiling effect of the LCI may imply that it would be most useful in assessing amputees with low to moderate functional abilities.

  14. The Addiction Severity Index: Reliability and validity in a Dutch alcoholic population

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dejong, C.A.J.; Willems, J.C.E.W.; Schippers, G.M.; Hendriks, V.M.

    1995-01-01

    The Addiction Severity Index (ASI) was evaluated for its psychometric qualities in a Dutch alcoholic population admitted to an addiction treatment center in the Netherlands. Its factorial structure in this population was found to be consistent with the established six factor structure of the ASI.

  15. Methodological considerations concerning the development of oral dental erosion indexes: literature survey, validity and reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutschmann, Marcus; Bardehle, Doris

    2008-01-01

    Within the context of preventing non-communicable diseases, the World Health Report (2002) and the WHO Global Oral Health Program (2003) put forward a new strategy of disease prevention and health promotion. Greater emphasis is placed on developing global policies in oral health promotion and oral disease prevention. The Decayed, Missing, Filled Teeth (DMFT) index does not meet new challenges in the field of oral health. Dental erosion seems to be a growing problem, and in some countries, an increase in erosion of teeth is associated with an increase in the consumption of beverages containing acids. Therefore, within a revision of the WHO Oral Health Surveys Basic Methods, new oral disease patterns, e.g. dental erosion, have to be taken into account. Within the last 20 years, many studies on dental erosion have been carried out and published. There has been a rapid growth in the number of indexes quantifying dental erosion process in different age groups. However, these indexes are not comparable. This article discusses quality criteria which an index intended for assessing tooth erosion should possess. PMID:18228060

  16. A reliability index for assessment of crack profile reconstructed from ECT signals using a neural-network approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yusa, Noritaka; Chen, Zhenmao; Miya, Kenzo; Cheng, Weiying

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes a reliability parameter to enhance an version scheme developed by authors. The scheme is based upon an artificial neural network that simulates mapping between eddy current signals and crack profiles. One of the biggest advantages of the scheme is that it can deal with conductive cracks, which is necessary to reconstruct natural cracks. However, it has one significant disadvantage: the reliability of reconstructed profiles was unknown. The parameter provides an index for assessment of the crack profile and overcomes this disadvantage. After the parameter is validated by reconstruction of simulated cracks, it is applied to reconstruction of natural cracks that occurred in steam generator tubes of a pressurized water reactor. It is revealed that the parameter is applicable to not only simulated cracks but also natural ones. (author)

  17. An interoperable standard system for the automatic generation and publication of the fire risk maps based on Fire Weather Index (FWI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julià Selvas, Núria; Ninyerola Casals, Miquel

    2015-04-01

    It has been implemented an automatic system to predict the fire risk in the Principality of Andorra, a small country located in the eastern Pyrenees mountain range, bordered by Catalonia and France, due to its location, his landscape is a set of a rugged mountains with an average elevation around 2000 meters. The system is based on the Fire Weather Index (FWI) that consists on different components, each one, measuring a different aspect of the fire danger calculated by the values of the weather variables at midday. CENMA (Centre d'Estudis de la Neu i de la Muntanya d'Andorra) has a network around 10 automatic meteorological stations, located in different places, peeks and valleys, that measure weather data like relative humidity, wind direction and speed, surface temperature, rainfall and snow cover every ten minutes; this data is sent daily and automatically to the system implemented that will be processed in the way to filter incorrect measurements and to homogenizer measurement units. Then this data is used to calculate all components of the FWI at midday and for the level of each station, creating a database with the values of the homogeneous measurements and the FWI components for each weather station. In order to extend and model this data to all Andorran territory and to obtain a continuous map, an interpolation method based on a multiple regression with spline residual interpolation has been implemented. This interpolation considerer the FWI data as well as other relevant predictors such as latitude, altitude, global solar radiation and sea distance. The obtained values (maps) are validated using a cross-validation leave-one-out method. The discrete and continuous maps are rendered in tiled raster maps and published in a web portal conform to Web Map Service (WMS) Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standard. Metadata and other reference maps (fuel maps, topographic maps, etc) are also available from this geoportal.

  18. Using Haines Index coupled with fire weather model predicted from high resolution LAM forecasts to asses wildfire extreme behaviour in Southern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaetani, Francesco; Baptiste Filippi, Jean; Simeoni, Albert; D'Andrea, Mirko

    2010-05-01

    Haines Index (HI) was developed by USDA Forest Service to measure the atmosphere's contribution to the growth potential of a wildfire. The Haines Index combines two atmospheric factors that are known to have an effect on wildfires: Stability and Dryness. As operational tools, HI proved its ability to predict plume dominated high intensity wildfires. However, since HI does not take into account the fuel continuity, composition and moisture conditions and the effects of wind and topography on fire behaviour, its use as forecasting tool should be carefully considered. In this work we propose the use of HI, predicted from HR Limited Area Model forecasts, coupled with a Fire Weather model (i.e., RISICO system) fully operational in Italy since 2003. RISICO is based on dynamic models able to represent in space and in time the effects that environment and vegetal physiology have on fuels and, in turn, on the potential behaviour of wildfires. The system automatically acquires from remote databases a thorough data-set of input information both of in situ and spatial nature. Meteorological observations, radar data, Limited Area Model weather forecasts, EO data, and fuel data are managed by a Unified Interface able to process a wide set of different data. Specific semi-physical models are used in the system to simulate the dynamics of the fuels (load and moisture contents of dead and live fuel) and the potential fire behaviour (rate of spread and linear intensity). A preliminary validation of this approach will be provided with reference to Sardinia and Corsica Islands, two major islands of the Mediterranean See frequently affected by extreme plume dominated wildfires. A time series of about 3000 wildfires burnt in Sardinia and Corsica in 2007 and 2008 will be used to evaluate the capability of HI coupled with the outputs of the Fire Weather model to forecast the actual risk in time and in space.

  19. Clinical use of the ABO-Scoring Index: reliability and subtraction frequency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lieber, William S; Carlson, Sean K; Baumrind, Sheldon; Poulton, Donald R

    2003-10-01

    This study tested the reliability and subtraction frequency of the study model-scoring system of the American Board of Orthodontists (ABO). We used a sample of 36 posttreatment study models that were selected randomly from six different orthodontic offices. Intrajudge and interjudge reliability was calculated using nonparametric statistics (Spearman rank coefficient, Wilcoxon, Kruskal-Wallis, and Mann-Whitney tests). We found differences ranging from 3 to 6 subtraction points (total score) for intrajudge scoring between two sessions. For overall total ABO score, the average correlation was .77. Intrajudge correlation was greatest for occlusal relationships and least for interproximal contacts. Interjudge correlation for ABO score averaged r = .85. Correlation was greatest for buccolingual inclination and least for overjet. The data show that some judges, on average, were much more lenient than others and that this resulted in a range of total scores between 19.7 and 27.5. Most of the deductions were found in the buccal segments and most were related to the second molars. We present these findings in the context of clinicians preparing for the ABO phase III examination and for orthodontists in their ongoing evaluation of clinical results.

  20. Is anterior N2 enhancement a reliable electrophysiological index of concealed information?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganis, Giorgio; Bridges, David; Hsu, Chun-Wei; Schendan, Haline E

    2016-12-01

    Concealed information tests (CITs) are used to determine whether an individual possesses information about an item of interest. Event-related potential (ERP) measures in CITs have focused almost exclusively on the P3b component, showing that this component is larger when lying about the item of interest (probe) than telling the truth about control items (irrelevants). Recent studies have begun to examine other ERP components, such as the anterior N2, with mixed results. A seminal CIT study found that visual probes elicit a larger anterior N2 than irrelevants (Gamer and Berti, 2010) and suggested that this component indexes cognitive control processes engaged when lying about probes. However, this study did not control for potential intrinsic differences among the stimuli: the same probe and irrelevants were used for all participants, and there was no control condition composed of uninformed participants. Here, first we show that the N2 effect found in the study by Gamer and Berti (2010) was in large part due to stimulus differences, as the effect observed in a concealed information condition was comparable to that found in two matched control conditions without any concealed information (Experiments 1 and 2). Next, we addressed the issue of the generality of the N2 findings by counterbalancing a new set of stimuli across participants and by using a control condition with uninformed participants (Experiment 3). Results show that the probe did not elicit a larger anterior N2 than the irrelevants under these controlled conditions. These findings suggest that caution should be taken in using the N2 as an index of concealed information in CITs. Furthermore, they are a reminder that results of CIT studies (not only with ERPs) performed without stimulus counterbalancing and suitable control conditions may be confounded by differential intrinsic properties of the stimuli employed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Cross-cultural adaptation, reliability and validity of the Turkish version of the Lower Limb Functional Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duruturk, Neslihan; Tonga, Eda; Gabel, Charles Philip; Acar, Manolya; Tekindal, Agah

    2015-07-26

    This study aims to adapt culturally a Turkish version of the Lower Limb Functional Index (LLFI) and to determine its validity, reliability, internal consistency, measurement sensitivity and factor structure in lower limb problems. The LLFI was translated into Turkish and cross-culturally adapted with a double forward-backward protocol that determined face and content validity. Individuals (n = 120) with lower limb musculoskeletal disorders completed the LLFI and Short Form-36 questionnaires and the Timed Up and Go physical test. The psychometric properties were evaluated for the all participants from patient-reported outcome measures made at baseline and repeated at day 3 to determine criterion between scores (Pearson's r), internal consistency (Cronbachs α) and test-retest reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient - ICC 2.1 ). Error was determined using standard error of the measurement (SEM) and minimal detectable change at the 90% level (MDC 90 ), while factor structure was determined using exploratory factor analysis with maximum likelihood extraction and Varimax rotation. The psychometric characteristics showed strong criterion validity (r = 0.74-0.76), high internal consistency (α = 0.82) and high test-retest reability (ICC 2.1  = 0.97). The SEM of 3.2% gave an MDC 90  = 5.8%. The factor structure was uni-dimensional. Turkish version of LLFI was found to be valid and reliable for the measurement of lower limb function in a Turkish population. Implications for Rehabilitation Lower extremity musculoskeletal disorders are common and greatly impact activities among the affected individuals pertaining to daily living, work, leisure and quality of life. Patient-reported outcome (PRO) measures have advantages as they are practical, cost-effective and clinically convenient for use in patient-centered care. The Lower Limb Functional Index is a recently validated PRO measure shown to have strong clinimetric properties.

  2. Structural and reliability analysis of quality of relationship index in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cousson-Gélie, Florence; de Chalvron, Stéphanie; Zozaya, Carole; Lafaye, Anaïs

    2013-01-01

    Among psychosocial factors affecting emotional adjustment and quality of life, social support is one of the most important and widely studied in cancer patients, but little is known about the perception of support in specific significant relationships in patients with cancer. This study examined the psychometric properties of the Quality of Relationship Inventory (QRI) by evaluating its factor structure and its convergent and discriminant validity in a sample of cancer patients. A total of 388 patients completed the QRI. Convergent validity was evaluated by testing the correlations between the QRI subscales and measures of general social support, anxiety and depression symptoms. Discriminant validity was examined by testing group comparison. The QRI's longitudinal invariance across time was also tested. Principal axis factor analysis with promax rotation identified three factors accounting for 42.99% of variance: perceived social support, depth, and interpersonal conflict. Estimates of reliability with McDonald's ω coefficient were satisfactory for all the QRI subscales (ω ranging from 0.75 - 0.85). Satisfaction from general social support was negatively correlated with the interpersonal conflict subscale and positively with the depth subscale. The interpersonal conflict and social support scales were correlated with depression and anxiety scores. We also found a relative stability of QRI subscales (measured 3 months after the first evaluation) and differences between partner status and gender groups. The Quality of Relationship Inventory is a valid tool for assessing the quality of social support in a particular relationship with cancer patients.

  3. The Functional Living Index-Cancer is a reliable and valid instrument in Chinese cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fong, Daniel Y T; Lee, Alvina H K; Tung, Stewart Y; Wong, Janet Y H; Chan, Y M; Goh, Cynthia R; Cheung, Y B

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the linguistic and psychometric properties of the Functional Living Index-Cancer (FLIC) in assessing the quality of life of Chinese cancer patients. The English FLIC was translated into Traditional Chinese by the standard forward-backward procedure. After cognitive debriefing, a Traditional Chinese FLIC was administered to 500 cancer patients in a major public hospital in Hong Kong. Of which, 200 were invited to complete the questionnaire in 2 weeks. To identify a scale structure appropriate to Chinese, exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses were performed on two randomly split halves of the sample. We identified five scales of the Traditional Chinese FLIC which assess the physical, psychological, hardship, nausea and social aspects. These five scales and the overall scale demonstrated satisfactory fit and had the alpha coefficient ranged from 0.68 to 0.92. The intra-class correlation coefficient ranged from 0.67 to 0.88. In addition, all FLIC scales were negatively associated with the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status and, also except for the psychological scale, had lower scores in patients who were treated by chemotherapy. The Traditional Chinese FLIC is an appropriate health indicator for Chinese cancer patients.

  4. Measuring Empathic Tendencies: Reliability And Validity of the Dutch Version of the Interpersonal Reactivity Index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim De Corte

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI; Davis, 1980 is a commonly used self-report instrument designed to assess empathic tendencies. The IRI consists of four separate subscales: Perspective Taking (PT, Fantasy (FS, Empathic Concern (EC, and Personal Distress (PD. The objective of this study was to examine the psychometric properties of a Dutch version of the IRI. The IRI was administered to a Dutch sample of 651 normal functioning adults. The factor structure of the IRI was examined by using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA. The results of the CFA revealed that there is room for improvement and modification of the original theoretical model. The validity of the IRI was tested using internal criteria (i. e., scale intercorrelations and external criteria (i. e., correlations with subscales of the EQ-i (Bar-On, 1997, the NEO-FFI (Hoekstra, Ormel, & De Fruyt, 1996, Mach-IV (Van Kenhove, Vermeir, & Verniers, 2001, Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965, and the WAIS-III (Wechsler, 2000. Overall, the internal consistency, construct validity, and factor structure of scores from the Dutch version of the IRI suggest that it is a useful instrument to measure people's self-reported empathic tendencies.

  5. Validity and reliability of English and Marathi Oswestry Disability Index (version 2.1a) in Indian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, Veena D; Raiturker, Pradyumna P Pai; Kulkarni, Aditi A

    2013-05-15

    A total of 200 patients with low back pain (LBP) completed an English and Marathi Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) questionnaires (100 each), visual analogue scale, and Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire. To validate the English and Marathi versions of ODI (version 2.1a). Patient-orientated assessment methods are important in the evaluation of treatment outcome. The ODI is one of the condition-specific questionnaires recommended for the use of patients with LBP. An adaptation of the ODI (version 2.1a) for Marathi language was carried out according to established guidelines. Average age of patients who answered the English ODI was 42 ± 15, whereas that of Marathi-speaking patients was 52 ± 15 years. About 40% were males. The Cronbach α reliability score was 0.877 for English and 0.943 for Marathi. Forty-seven and 53 of these patients were retested with English and Marathi ODI within 2 weeks (to assess test-retest reliability). The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) for the test-retest reliability of the questionnaire was 0.877 and 0.943 for English and Marathi respectively. The ODI scores correlated with visual analogue scale pain intensity (r = 0.67, P Disability Questionnaire score (r = 0.71, P Disability Questionnaire scores (r = 0.503, P Oswestry questionnaire is reliable and valid, and shows psychometric characteristics as good as the English version. It should represent a valuable tool for use in future patient-orientated outcome studies for population with LBP in India.

  6. Reliability and validity study on the Hungarian versions of the oswestry disability index and the Quebec back pain disability scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valasek, Tamás; Varga, Peter Paul; Szövérfi, Zsolt; Kümin, Michelle; Fairbank, Jeremy; Lazary, Aron

    2013-05-01

    Patient-reported outcome measurements (PROMs) are widely used in spine care. The development of reliable and valid National versions of spine-related disability questionnaires is strongly recommended from both the clinical and scientific points-of-view. The aims of this study were to adapt and validate the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and the Quebec back pain disability scale (QDS) for use with the Hungarian language. After translating and culturally adapting the ODI and QDS, 133 patients with lumbar degenerative spinal disorder filled in the questionnaire booklet twice within 2 weeks. Subjects completed the Hungarian versions of the two PROMs as well as the WHOQoL-BREF validated as a general life quality questionnaire and Visual Analogue Scale of pain. Internal consistency, reliability and construct validity of the questionnaires were determined, as were the standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimal detectable change (MDC) scores. The Hungarian ODI consisted of one factor that showed good internal consistency (Cronbach-α 0.890). The QDS showed a four-factor structure with Cronbach-α values between 0.788 and 0.917. No significant floor or ceiling effects were observed. The test-retest analysis showed excellent reliability of the Hungarian ODI and QDS. The intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were 0.927 and 0.923, respectively. SEM values of 4.8 and 5.2 resulted in a MDC of 13 and 14 points in the Hungarian ODI and QDS, respectively. The correlation coefficient (r) between pain and ODI was 0.680 (p 0.4, p disability measured by the Hungarian ODI and QDS was significantly higher in the surgical subgroup than in non-surgically treated patients (p < 0.001). Translation and cultural adaptation of the ODI and QDS were successful. Hungarian versions of the ODI and QDS proved to be reliable, valid PROMs confirming that they can be used in future clinical and scientific work with Hungarian-speaking spine patients.

  7. The validity and reliability of the my jump 2 app for measuring the reactive strength index and drop jump performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Tom; Bishop, Chris; Antrobus, Mark; Brazier, Jon

    2018-03-27

    This is the first study to independently assess the concurrent validity and reliability of the My Jump 2 app for measuring drop jump performance. It is also the first to evaluate the app's ability to measure the reactive strength index (RSI). Fourteen male sport science students (age: 29.5 ± 9.9 years) performed three drop jumps from 20 cm and 40 cm (totalling 84 jumps), assessed via a force platform and the My Jump 2 app. Reported metrics included reactive strength index, jump height, ground contact time, and mean power. Measurements from both devices were compared using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), Pearson product moment correlation coefficient (r), Cronbach's alpha (α), coefficient of variation (CV) and BlandAltman plots. Near perfect agreement was seen between devices at 20 cm for RSI (ICC = 0.95) and contact time (ICC = 0.99) and at 40 cm for RSI (ICC = 0.98), jump height (ICC = 0.96) and contact time (ICC = 0.92); with very strong agreement seen at 20 cm for jump height (ICC = 0.80). In comparison with the force plate the app showed good validity for RSI (20 cm: r = 0.94; 40 cm; r = 0.97), jump height (20 cm: r = 0.80; 40 cm; r = 0.96) and contact time (20 cm = 0.96; 40 cm; r = 0.98). The results of the present study show that the My Jump 2 app is a valid and reliable tool for assessing drop jump performance.

  8. Translation of Oswestry Disability Index into Tamil with Cross Cultural Adaptation and Evaluation of Reliability and Validity§

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Joshua Israel; MacDermid, Joy Christine; Grewal, Ruby; Sekar, Vincent Prabhakaran; Balachandran, Dinesh

    2014-01-01

    Study Design: Prospective longitudinal validation study Objective: To translate and cross-culturally adapt the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) to the Tamil language (ODI-T), and to evaluate its reliability and construct validity. Summary of Background Data: ODI is widely used as a disease specific questionnaire in back pain patients to evaluate pain and disability. A thorough literature search revealed that the Tamil version of the ODI has not been previously published. Methods: The ODI was translated and cross-culturally adapted to the Tamil language according to established guidelines. 30 subjects (16 women and 14 men) with a mean age of 42.7 years (S.D. 13.6; Range 22 - 69) with low back pain were recruited to assess the psychometric properties of the ODI-T Questionnaire. Patients completed the ODI-T, Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ), VAS-pain and VAS-disability at baseline and 24-72 hours from the baseline visit. Results: The ODI-T displayed a high degree of internal consistency, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.92. The test-retest reliability was high (n=30) with an ICC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.84 to 0.96) and a mean re-test difference of 2.6 points lower on re-test. The ODI-T scores exhibited a strong correlation with the RMDQ scores (r = 0.82) pdisability in Tamil speaking patients with low back pain. PMID:24563681

  9. Development of a German version of the Oswestry Disability Index. Part 1: cross-cultural adaptation, reliability, and validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannion, A F; Junge, A; Fairbank, J C T; Dvorak, J; Grob, D

    2006-01-01

    Patient-orientated assessment methods are of paramount importance in the evaluation of treatment outcome. The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is one of the condition-specific questionnaires recommended for use with back pain patients. To date, no German version has been published in the peer-reviewed literature. A cross-cultural adaptation of the ODI for the German language was carried out, according to established guidelines. One hundred patients with chronic low-back pain (35 conservative, 65 surgical) completed a questionnaire booklet containing the newly translated ODI, along with a 0-10 pain visual analogue scale (VAS), the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire, and Likert scales for disability, medication intake and pain frequency [to assess ODI's construct (convergent) validity]. Thirty-nine of these patients completed a second questionnaire within 2 weeks (to assess test-retest reliability). The intraclass correlation coefficient for the test-retest reliability of the questionnaire was 0.96. In test-retest, 74% of the individual questions were answered identically, and 21% just one grade higher or lower. The standard error of measurement (SEM) was 3.4, giving a "minimum detectable change" (MDC(95%)) for the ODI of approximately 9 points, i.e. the minimum change in an individual's score required to be considered "real change" (with 95% confidence) over and above measurement error. The ODI scores correlated with VAS pain intensity (r = 0.78, P disability, medication use and pain frequency (in each case P Oswestry questionnaire is reliable and valid, and shows psychometric characteristics as good as, if not better than, the original English version. It should represent a valuable tool for use in future patient-orientated outcome studies in German-speaking lands.

  10. Translation of oswestry disability index into Tamil with cross cultural adaptation and evaluation of reliability and validity(§).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Joshua Israel; Macdermid, Joy Christine; Grewal, Ruby; Sekar, Vincent Prabhakaran; Balachandran, Dinesh

    2014-01-01

    Prospective longitudinal validation study. To translate and cross-culturally adapt the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) to the Tamil language (ODI-T), and to evaluate its reliability and construct validity. ODI is widely used as a disease specific questionnaire in back pain patients to evaluate pain and disability. A thorough literature search revealed that the Tamil version of the ODI has not been previously published. The ODI was translated and cross-culturally adapted to the Tamil language according to established guidelines. 30 subjects (16 women and 14 men) with a mean age of 42.7 years (S.D. 13.6; Range 22 - 69) with low back pain were recruited to assess the psychometric properties of the ODI-T Questionnaire. Patients completed the ODI-T, Roland-Morris disability questionnaire (RMDQ), VAS-pain and VAS-disability at baseline and 24-72 hours from the baseline visit. The ODI-T displayed a high degree of internal consistency, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.92. The test-retest reliability was high (n=30) with an ICC of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.84 to 0.96) and a mean re-test difference of 2.6 points lower on re-test. The ODI-T scores exhibited a strong correlation with the RMDQ scores (r = 0.82) pTamil version of the ODI Questionnaire is a valid and reliable tool that can be used to measure subjective outcomes of pain and disability in Tamil speaking patients with low back pain.

  11. Reliability of Doppler and stethoscope methods of determining systolic blood pressures: considerations for calculating an ankle-brachial index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesbro, Steven B; Asongwed, Elmira T; Brown, Jamesha; John, Emmanuel B

    2011-01-01

    The purposes of this study were to: (1) identify the interrater and intrarater reliability of systolic blood pressures using a stethoscope and Doppler to determine an ankle-brachial index (ABI), and (2) to determine the correlation between the 2 methods. Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) affects approximately 8 to 12 million people in the United States, and nearly half of those with this disease are asymptomatic. Early detection and prompt treatment of PAD will improve health outcomes. It is important that clinicians perform tests that determine the presence of PAD. Two individual raters trained in ABI procedure measured the systolic blood pressures of 20 individuals' upper and lower extremities. Standard ABI measurement protocols were observed. Raters individually recorded the systolic blood pressures of each extremity using a stethoscope and a Doppler, for a total of 640 independent measures. Interrater reliability of Doppler measurements to determine SBP at the ankle was very strong (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC], 0.93-0.99) compared to moderate to strong reliability using a stethoscope (ICC, 0.64-0.87). Agreement between the 2 devices to determine SBP was moderate to very weak (ICC, 0.13-0.61). Comparisons of the use of Doppler and stethoscope to determine ABI showed weak to very weak intrarater correlation (ICC, 0.17-0.35). Linear regression analysis of the 2 methods to determine ABI showed positive but weak to very weak correlations (r2 = .013, P = .184). A Doppler ultrasound is recommended over a stethoscope for accuracy in systolic pressure readings for ABI measurements.

  12. Spatiotemporal variation of watershed health propensity through reliability-resilience-vulnerability based drought index (case study: Shazand Watershed in Iran).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadeghi, Seyed Hamidreza; Hazbavi, Zeinab

    2017-06-01

    Quantitative response of the watershed health to climate variability is of critical importance for watershed managers. However, existing studies seldom considered the impact of climate variability on watershed health. The present study therefore aimed to analyze the temporal and spatial variability of reliability (R el ), resilience (R es ) and vulnerability (V ul ) indicators in node years of 1986, 1998, 2008 and 2014 in connection with Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for 24 sub-watersheds in the Shazand Watershed of Markazi Province in Iran. The analysis was based on rainfall variability as one of the main climatic drivers. To achieve the study purposes, the monthly rainfall time series of eight rain gauge stations distributed across the watershed or neighboring areas were analyzed and corresponding SPIs and R el R es V ul indicators were calculated. Ultimately, the spatial variation of SPI oriented R el R es V ul was mapped for the study watershed using Geographic Information System (GIS). The average and standard deviation of SPI-R el R es V ul index for the study years of 1986, 1998, 2008 and 2014 was obtained 0.240±0.025, 0.290±0.036, 0.077±0.0280 and 0.241±0.081, respectively. In overall, the results of the study proved the spatiotemporal variations of SPI-R el R es V ul watershed health index in the study area. Accordingly, all the sub-watersheds of the Shazand Watershed were grouped in unhealthy and very unhealthy conditions in all the study years. For 1986 and 1998 all the sub-watersheds were assessed in unhealthy status. Whilst, it declined to very unhealthy condition in 2008 and then some 75% of the watershed ultimately referred again to unhealthy and the rest still remained under very unhealthy conditions in 2014. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Reliability and validity study of the Gujarati version of the Oswestry Disability Index 2.1a.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Sweni; Balaganapathy, M

    2017-09-22

    Among all musculoskeletal disorders back pain is the most common reason for functional limitation in working age. It is due to low back pain (LBP) that the ODI has become one of the principal outcome measures for evaluation of disability and has been widely used in research as well as in clinical practice. So far, validated Gujarati version of the ODI 2.1a has not been reported. To accomplish the translation and validation of the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) version 2.1a into the Gujarati language. Cross-sectional study. The validation of the ODI-Gujarati was tested in 120 patients diagnosed with non-specific LBP, who were receiving physiotherapy at a clinic in Gujarat, India. Data was collected at on initial visit and after 48 hours. During both visits, patients completed the Oswestry Disability Index-Gujarati (ODI-G), Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire-Gujarati (RMDQ-G), and Visual Analogue Scale-Pain (VAS-P). Internal consistency was measured by Cronbach's alpha. The Gujarati version indicated high internal consistency (α= 0.96). Test-retest reliability was measured by intra-class correlation coefficient and it revealed very high correlation (ICC = 0.92). Construct validity was confirmed by strong correlation with RMDQ-G (r= 0.76), and concurrent validity indicated moderate correlation with VAS-P (r= 0.50). Factor analysis explained that the ODI was loaded on 1 factor. The Oswestry disability index version 2.1a was successfully translated into Gujarati language, showing excellent psychometric properties. Therefore, it can be used in evaluating the disability amongst Gujarati population with LBP for both clinical and research purposes.

  14. Indexed

    CERN Document Server

    Hagy, Jessica

    2008-01-01

    Jessica Hagy is a different kind of thinker. She has an astonishing talent for visualizing relationships, capturing in pictures what is difficult for most of us to express in words. At indexed.blogspot.com, she posts charts, graphs, and Venn diagrams drawn on index cards that reveal in a simple and intuitive way the large and small truths of modern life. Praised throughout the blogosphere as “brilliant,” “incredibly creative,” and “comic genius,” Jessica turns her incisive, deadpan sense of humor on everything from office politics to relationships to religion. With new material along with some of Jessica’s greatest hits, this utterly unique book will thrill readers who demand humor that makes them both laugh and think.

  15. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  16. A confirmatory study of the Combined Index of Severity of Fibromyalgia (ICAF*: factorial structure, reliability and sensitivity to change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rejas Javier

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Fibromyalgia (FM is a complex syndrome that affects many aspects of the patients life and it is very difficult to evaluate in clinical practice. A recent study has developed the Combined Index of Severity of Fibromyalgia (ICAF, an instrument that evaluates diverse aspects of FM and offers five indices: emotional, physical, active coping, passive coping and total. The objective of this study is to confirm the structure of the ICAF, check its test-retest reliability, assess its sensitivity to change, and compare the results obtained in a sample of patients with fibromyalgia with another sample of healthy controls. Methods A total of 232 patients took part in the study, 228 women and 4 men, with a mean age of 47.73 years of age (SD = 8.61 and a time of disease evolution since diagnosis of 4.28 years (SD = 4.03. The patients from the FM group completed the ICAF. Between one and two weeks later, they again attended the clinic and complete the 59 items on the ICAF (retest and immediately afterwards they began treatment (according to daily clinical practice criteria. A sample of healthy subjects was also studied as a control group: 110 people were included (106 women and 4 men with a mean age of 46.01 years of age (SD = 9.35. The study was conducted in Spain. Results The results obtained suggest that the four-factor model obtained in the previous study adequately fits the data obtained in this study. The test-retest reliability and internal consistency were all significant and show a high degree of correlation for all the factors as well as in overall score. With the exception of the passive coping factor, all the other scores, including the overall score, were sensitive to change after the therapeutic intervention. The ICAF scores of the patients with fibromyalgia compared with those of the control group were markedly different. Conclusions The findings suggest that the ICAF is a valid, reliable, sensitive to change instrument with

  17. A confirmatory study of the Combined Index of Severity of Fibromyalgia (ICAF*): factorial structure, reliability and sensitivity to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Fibromyalgia (FM) is a complex syndrome that affects many aspects of the patients life and it is very difficult to evaluate in clinical practice. A recent study has developed the Combined Index of Severity of Fibromyalgia (ICAF), an instrument that evaluates diverse aspects of FM and offers five indices: emotional, physical, active coping, passive coping and total. The objective of this study is to confirm the structure of the ICAF, check its test-retest reliability, assess its sensitivity to change, and compare the results obtained in a sample of patients with fibromyalgia with another sample of healthy controls. Methods A total of 232 patients took part in the study, 228 women and 4 men, with a mean age of 47.73 years of age (SD = 8.61) and a time of disease evolution since diagnosis of 4.28 years (SD = 4.03). The patients from the FM group completed the ICAF. Between one and two weeks later, they again attended the clinic and complete the 59 items on the ICAF (retest) and immediately afterwards they began treatment (according to daily clinical practice criteria). A sample of healthy subjects was also studied as a control group: 110 people were included (106 women and 4 men) with a mean age of 46.01 years of age (SD = 9.35). The study was conducted in Spain. Results The results obtained suggest that the four-factor model obtained in the previous study adequately fits the data obtained in this study. The test-retest reliability and internal consistency were all significant and show a high degree of correlation for all the factors as well as in overall score. With the exception of the passive coping factor, all the other scores, including the overall score, were sensitive to change after the therapeutic intervention. The ICAF scores of the patients with fibromyalgia compared with those of the control group were markedly different. Conclusions The findings suggest that the ICAF is a valid, reliable, sensitive to change instrument with the added advantage

  18. Reliability, Construct Validity and Interpretability of the Brazilian version of the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) and Strain Index (SI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentim, Daniela Pereira; Sato, Tatiana de Oliveira; Comper, Maria Luiza Caíres; Silva, Anderson Martins da; Boas, Cristiana Villas; Padula, Rosimeire Simprini

    There are very few observational methods for analysis of biomechanical exposure available in Brazilian-Portuguese. This study aimed to cross-culturally adapt and test the measurement properties of the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) and Strain Index (SI). The cross-cultural adaptation and measurement properties test were established according to Beaton et al. and COSMIN guidelines, respectively. Several tasks that required static posture and/or repetitive motion of upper limbs were evaluated (n>100). The intra-raters' reliability for the RULA ranged from poor to almost perfect (k: 0.00-0.93), and SI from poor to excellent (ICC 2.1 : 0.05-0.99). The inter-raters' reliability was very poor for RULA (k: -0.12 to 0.13) and ranged from very poor to moderate for SI (ICC 2.1 : 0.00-0.53). The agreement was good for RULA (75-100% intra-raters, and 42.24-100% inter-raters) and to SI (EPM: -1.03% to 1.97%; intra-raters, and -0.17% to 1.51% inter-raters). The internal consistency was appropriate for RULA (α=0.88), and low for SI (α=0.65). Moderate construct validity were observed between RULA and SI, in wrist/hand-wrist posture (rho: 0.61) and strength/intensity of exertion (rho: 0.39). The adapted versions of the RULA and SI presented semantic and cultural equivalence for the Brazilian Portuguese. The RULA and SI had reliability estimates ranged from very poor to almost perfect. The internal consistency for RULA was better than the SI. The correlation between methods was moderate only of muscle request/movement repetition. Previous training is mandatory to use of observations methods for biomechanical exposure assessment, although it does not guarantee good reproducibility of these measures. Copyright © 2017 Associação Brasileira de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação em Fisioterapia. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  19. Delta neutrophil index: A reliable marker to differentiate perforated appendicitis from non-perforated appendicitis in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Dong Hyuk; Cho, Young Suk; Kim, Yoon Sung; Ahn, Hee Cheol; Oh, Young Taeck; Park, Sang O; Won, Moo-Ho; Cho, Jun Hwi; Kim, Young Myeong; Seo, Jeong Yeol; Lee, Young Hwan

    2018-01-01

    Delta neutrophil index (DNI) is a new inflammatory marker and the present study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the DNI for the presence of a perforation in elderly with acute appendicitis. This retrospective observational study was conducted on 108 consecutive elderly patients (≥65 years old) with acute appendicitis treated over a 24-month period. Sixty-nine of the 108 patients (median, IQR: 72, 67-77 years) were allocated to the perforated appendicitis group (63.9%) and 39 to the non-perforated appendicitis group (36.1%). WBC, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and DNI were significantly higher in the perforated group. In multiple logistic regression analyses, initial DNI was the only independent marker that can significantly predict the presence of perforation in multiple regression [odds ratio 9.38, 95% confidence interval (2.51-35.00), P=.001]. Receiver operator characteristic curve analysis showed that DNI is a good predictor for the presence of appendiceal perforation at an optimal cut-off for DNI being 1.4% (sensitivity 67.7%, specificity 90.0%, AUC 0.807). Clinicians can reliably differentiate acute perforated appendicitis from non-perforated appendicitis by DNI level of 1.4 or more in elderly patients. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. The two errors of using the within-subject standard deviation (WSD) as the standard error of a reliable change index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maassen, Gerard H

    2010-08-01

    In this Journal, Lewis and colleagues introduced a new Reliable Change Index (RCI(WSD)), which incorporated the within-subject standard deviation (WSD) of a repeated measurement design as the standard error. In this note, two opposite errors in using WSD this way are demonstrated. First, being the standard error of measurement of only a single assessment makes WSD too small when practice effects are absent. Then, too many individuals will be designated reliably changed. Second, WSD can grow unlimitedly to the extent that differential practice effects occur. This can even make RCI(WSD) unable to detect any reliable change.

  1. Spatiotemporal variation of long-term drought propensity through reliability-resilience-vulnerability based Drought Management Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chanda, Kironmala; Maity, Rajib; Sharma, Ashish; Mehrotra, Rajeshwar

    2014-10-01

    This paper characterizes the long-term, spatiotemporal variation of drought propensity through a newly proposed, namely Drought Management Index (DMI), and explores its predictability in order to assess the future drought propensity and adapt drought management policies for a location. The DMI was developed using the reliability-resilience-vulnerability (RRV) rationale commonly used in water resources systems analysis, under the assumption that depletion of soil moisture across a vertical soil column is equivalent to the operation of a water supply reservoir, and that drought should be managed not simply using a measure of system reliability, but should also take into account the readiness of the system to bounce back from drought to a normal state. Considering India as a test bed, 5 year long monthly gridded (0.5° Lat × 0.5° Lon) soil moisture data are used to compute the RRV at each grid location falling within the study domain. The Permanent Wilting Point (PWP) is used as the threshold, indicative of transition into water stress. The association between resilience and vulnerability is then characterized through their joint probability distribution ascertained using Plackett copula models for four broad soil types across India. The joint cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of resilience and vulnerability form the basis for estimating the DMI as a five-yearly time series at each grid location assessed. The status of DMI over the past 50 years indicate that drought propensity is consistently low toward northern and north eastern parts of India but higher in the western part of peninsular India. Based on the observed past behavior of DMI series on a climatological time scale, a DMI prediction model comprising deterministic and stochastic components is developed. The predictability of DMI for a lead time of 5 years is found to vary across India, with a Pearson correlation coefficient between observed and predicted DMI above 0.6 over most of the study area

  2. Excellent cross-cultural validity, intra-test reliability and construct validity of the dutch rivermead mobility index in patients after stroke undergoing rehabilitation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roorda, Leo D.; Green, John; De Kluis, Kiki R. A.; Molenaar, Ivo W.; Bagley, Pam; Smith, Jane; Geurts, Alexander C. H.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the cross-cultural validity of international Dutch-English comparisons when using the Dutch Rivermead Mobility Index (RMI), and the intra-test reliability and construct validity of the Dutch RMI. Methods: Cross-cultural validity was studied in a combined data-set of Dutch

  3. Reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index for elderly patients with a femoral neck fracture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgers, P.T.; Poolman, R.W.; Bakel, T.M. Van; Tuinebreijer, W.E.; Zielinski, S.M.; Bhandari, M.; Patka, P.; Lieshout, E.M. van; Kampen, A. van; Biert, J.; Vugt, A.B. van; Edwards, M.J.R.; Blokhuis, T.J.; Frolke, J.P.; Geeraedts, L.M.G.; Gardeniers, J.W.M.; Tan, E.C.T.H.; Poelhekke, L.M.S.J.; Waal Malefijt, M.C. de; Schreurs, B.W.; et al.,

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) has been extensively evaluated in groups of patients with osteoarthritis, yet not in patients with a femoral neck fracture. This study aimed to determine the reliability, construct validity, and responsiveness of

  4. Reliability, Validity, and Responsiveness of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index for Elderly Patients with a Femoral Neck Fracture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgers, Paul T. P. W.; Poolman, Rudolf W.; van Bakel, Theodorus M. J.; Tuinebreijer, Wim E.; Zielinski, Stephanie M.; Bhandari, Mohit; Patka, Peter; van Lieshout, Esther M. M.; Devereaux, P. J.; Guyatt, Gordon H.; Einhorn, Thomas A.; Thabane, Lehana; Schemitsch, Emil H.; Koval, Kenneth J.; Frihagen, Frede; Tetsworth, Kevin; Guerra-Farfan, Ernesto; Walter, Stephen D.; Sprague, Sheila; Swinton, Marilyn; Scott, Taryn; McKay, Paula; Madden, Kim; Heels-Ansdell, Diane; Buckingham, Lisa; Duraikannan, Aravin; Silva, Heather; Heetveld, Martin J.; Burgers, T. P. W.; Zura, Robert D.; Avram, Victoria; Eygendaal, Denise; Krips, Rover; Raven, Eric E. J.; Haverlag, Robert; Mutsaerts, Eduard L. A. R.; Haverkamp, Daniel; van den Bekerom, Michel P. J.; Beimers, Lijkele; de Vries, Jasper; Zurcher, Arthur W.; Bulstra, Gythe H.; Campo, Martin M.; Somford, Mathijs P.; Schep, Niels W. L.; Festen, Sebastiaan; Geeraedts, Leo M. G.; Peters, Rolf; Goslings, J. Carel; Ponsen, Kees Jan

    2015-01-01

    Background: The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) has been extensively evaluated in groups of patients with osteoarthritis, yet not in patients with a femoral neck fracture. This study aimed to determine the reliability, construct validity, and responsiveness of

  5. Reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index for elderly patients with a femoral neck fracture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.T.P.W. Burgers (Paul); R.W. Poolman (Rudolf); T.M. van Bakel (Theodorus); W.E. Tuinebreijer (Wim); S.M. Zielinski (Stephanie); M. Bhandari (Mohit); P. Patka (Peter); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractBackground: The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) has been extensively evaluated in groups of patients with osteoarthritis, yet not in patients with a femoral neck fracture. This study aimed to determine the reliability, construct validity, and

  6. Reliability and Validity of the ‘‘Personal Well-Being Index- Cognitive Disability’’ on Mentally Retarded Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Agha Yousefi

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective:Having a good quality of life has always been desirable for humans, and the concept of a good life and the ways of achieving it have become important over the years. Personal wellbeing is the mental component of quality of life. Thus, the current study was conducted to assess the reliability and validity of the ‘‘Personal Well-Being Index- Cognitive Disability’’ on mentally retarded students.Method:200 mentally retarded students in north districts of Tehran (districts 1, 2 and 3 were selected by systematic random sampling. The collected data using Personal Well-Being Index- Cognitive Disability was analyzed by Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for internal consistency and linear multivariate regression for construct validity.Results:Results confirmed the reliability and validity for the Personal Well-Being Index- Cognitive Disability in mentally retarded students of exceptional schools. Studying the internal consistency of seven items showed that all the items were correlated with the total score and their scores averages were similar to each other. This indicates that the test’s questions have reliability with regard to evaluation of a common feature and results showed Personal Well-Being Index- Cognitive Disability had the most extensive coverage of construct validity .Conclusion:Personal Well-Being Index- Cognitive Disability scale could be applied to measure personal wellbeing in mentally retarded students.

  7. Reliability and Validity of the Dutch Version of the Behavioural Status Index: A Nurse-Rated Forensic Assessment Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakhssi, Farid; de Ruiter, Corine; Bernstein, David

    2010-01-01

    The Behavioural Status Index (BEST-Index) has been introduced into Dutch forensic psychiatry to measure change in risk level of future violence. The BEST-Index is a structured observational measure that assesses aggressive behavior, degree of insight, social skills, self-care, and work and leisure skills during inpatient treatment. Thus far,…

  8. Modelling fire frequency and area burned across phytoclimatic regions in Spain using reanalysis data and the Canadian Fire Weather Index System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bedia, J.; Herrera, S.; Gutiérrez, J. M.

    2013-09-01

    We develop fire occurrence and burned area models in peninsular Spain, an area of high variability in climate and fuel types, for the period 1990-2008. We based the analysis on a phytoclimatic classification aiming to the stratification of the territory into homogeneous units in terms of climatic and fuel type characteristics, allowing to test model performance under different climatic and fuel conditions. We used generalized linear models (GLM) and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) as modelling algorithms and temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and wind speed, taken from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, as well as the components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System as predictors. We also computed the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as an additional predictor for the models of burned area. We found two contrasting fire regimes in terms of area burned and number of fires: one characterized by a bimodal annual pattern, characterizing the Nemoral and Oro-boreal phytoclimatic types, and another one exhibiting an unimodal annual cycle, with the fire season concentrated in the summer months in the Mediterranean and Arid regions. The fire occurrence models attained good skill in most of the phytoclimatic zones considered, yielding in some zones notably high correlation coefficients between the observed and modelled inter-annual fire frequencies. Total area burned also exhibited a high dependence on the meteorological drivers, although their ability to reproduce the observed annual burned area time series was poor in most cases. We identified temperature and some FWI system components as the most important explanatory variables, and also SPEI in some of the burned area models, highlighting the adequacy of the FWI system for fire modelling applications and leaving the door opened to the development a more complex modelling framework based on these predictors. Furthermore, we demonstrate the potential usefulness

  9. Cross-cultural adaptation, reliability and validity of the Arabic version of the reduced Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis index in patients with knee osteoarthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alghadir, Ahmad; Anwer, Shahnawaz; Iqbal, Zaheen Ahmed; Alsanawi, Hisham Abdulaziz

    2016-01-01

    We adapted the reduced Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) index for the Arabic language and tested its metric properties in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). One hundred and twenty-one consecutive patients who were referred for physiotherapy to the outpatient department were asked to answer the Arabic version of the reduced WOMAC index (ArWOMAC). After the completion of the ArWOMAC, the intensity of knee pain and general health status were assessed using the visual analog scale (VAS) and the 12-item short form health survey (SF-12), respectively. A second assessment was performed at least 48 h after the first session to assess test-retest reliability. The test-retest reliability was quantified using the intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), and Cronbach's alpha was calculated to assess the internal consistency of the Arabic questionnaire. The construct validity was assessed using Spearman rank correlation coefficients. The total ArWOMAC scale and pain and function subscales were internally consistent with Cronbach's coefficient alpha of 0.91, 0.89 and 0.90, respectively. Test-retest reliability was good to excellent with ICC of 0.91, 0.89 and 0.90, respectively. SF-12 and VAS score significantly correlated with ArWOMAC index (p < 0.01), which support the construct validity. The standard error of measurement (SEM) of the total scale was 2.94, based on repeated measurements for test-retest. The minimum detectable change based on the SEM for test-retest was 8.15. The ArWOMAC index is a reliable and valid instrument for evaluating the severity of knee OA, with metric properties in agreement with the original version. Although, the reduced WOMAC index has been clinically utilized within the Saudi population, the Arabic version of this instrument is not validated for an Arab population to measure lower limb functional disability caused by OA. The Arabic version of reduced WOMAC (ArWOMAC) index is a reliable and valid scale

  10. An analysis of reliability and validity of the papilla index score of implant-supported single crowns of maxillary central incisors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peng, Min; Fei, Wei; Hosseini, Mandana

    2012-01-01

    Objectives: To test the reliability and validity of the papilla index scores of the implant-supported single crowns (ISSCs) of maxillary central incisors. Materials and Methods: Twenty-five patients with 25 ISSCs were included. Two prosthodontists evaluated the papilla index score (PIS) of three...... inter-observer agreement. The PIS score demonstrated significant correlation to the corresponding PP value (rs=.567, p=.000). Conclusions: The feasibility, reliability and validity of the PIS made the parameter useful for quality control of the pri-implant soft tissue of ISSCs....... fill percent (PP) was calculated. The validity of PIS was tested against the corresponding papilla fill percent (PP) by using the Spearman correlation analysis. Results: The intra-observer agreement was >70% in 4/5 and >50% in all observations, the pooled Cohen’s ¿ was 0.64 and 0.70 for two observers...

  11. Usefulness of the Reliable Change Index for psychology and psychiatry in clinical practice: a case report of cognitive-behavioral therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle de Souza Costa

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The reliable change index (RCI is a simple statistical computation which estimate if changes in two psychometric measures are probably due to measurement error or can be accounted by other factor, as a clinical intervention. Despite its clinical usefulness, the method is underutilized by psychiatrists and psychologists. We consider the use of the RCI in clinical practice by a case report of cognitive-behavioral therapy. Method: a female patient of 40 years old sought cognitive-behavioral therapy due to symptoms of depression. We structured the intervention in 16 sessions and used Beck Depression Inventory II (BDI-II for the assessment of depressive symptoms and answered in each session. Using published data about the BDI-II reliability and its standard deviation, we calculated the RCI before and after the intervention. Results and conclusions: The patient started the treatment with moderate to severe symptoms of depression and showed almost a linear decrease of the symptoms along the sections. Although no reliable change could be associated with the first month of treatment, starting at the second month, we documented a reliable decrease in the depressive symptoms from session 4 to 16. The RCI index it’s a useful method to assess if changes in psychometric measures may represent real change or occur by measurement error.

  12. The reliability and validity of a Venezuelan version of the Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI) and Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauseo Vera, Mayra; Gutiérrez-González, Luis Arturo; Maldonado, Irama; Al Snih, Soham

    2017-09-21

    Spondyloarthropathies (SpA) are disabling diseases with a prevalence of 1.9% in the general population. The indices designed for monitoring the disease should be valid, reliable and cross-culturally adapted for decision-making concerning the appropriate treatment. Changing an adjective or pronoun in a self-administered questionnaire could be the big difference in condensing an idea in a few words and transmitting that concept to all those who share the same language. To develop a Venezuelan version of the original English version of the BASDAI/BASFI and to evaluate its reliability and validity in Venezuelan patients with SpA. Certified linguists were needed for the translation of a Venezuelan version of the BASDAI/BASFI. The evaluation of reliability and validity was performed by calculating correlation coefficients in addition to Cronbach's alpha correlation between the BASDAI score and the clinical parameters (for example: erythrocyte sedimentation rate, C-reactive protein, modified Schöber test, occiput-to-wall distance and enthesis count). We studied 40 patients including 31 men (77.5%) and 9 women (22.5%). The mean age was 35.9 years ± standard deviation (SD) 12.01 and the disease duration was 11.5 years (± SD 9.5). The most common diagnoses were undifferentiated spondyloarthritis (45%), ankylosing spondylitis (27.5%) and psoriatic arthritis (20%). The incidences of reactive arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis and juvenile Reiter's syndrome were 2.5% each. The test-retest reliability of the BASDAI and BASFI was high (R = 0.99 and 0.99, respectively; P<.0001). The internal consistency for the BASDAI was high (Cronbach's alpha = 0.88; P=.002) and the intraclass correlation coefficient for internal consistency: 0.9867 (P=.001). Internal consistency for the BASFI: Cronbach's alpha = 0.7985 (P=.002), intraclass correlation coefficient for internal consistency: 0.9055 (P=.001). Construct validity of the BASDAI was high for general well-being of the patient (R = 0

  13. Test-retest reliability and responsiveness of the Barthel Index-based Supplementary Scales in patients with stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ya-Chen; Yu, Wan-Hui; Hsueh, I-Ping; Chen, Sheng-Shiung; Hsieh, Ching-Lin

    2017-10-01

    A lack of evidence on the test-retest reliability and responsiveness limits the utility of the BI-based Supplementary Scales (BI-SS) in both clinical and research settings. To examine the test-retest reliability and responsiveness of the BI-based Supplementary Scales (BI-SS) in patients with stroke. A repeated-assessments design (1 week apart) was used to examine the test-retest reliability of the BI-SS. For the responsiveness study, the participants were assessed with the BI-SS and BI (treated as an external criterion) at admission to and discharge from rehabilitation wards. Seven outpatient rehabilitation units and one inpatient rehabilitation unit. Outpatients with chronic stroke. Eighty-four outpatients with chronic stroke participated in the test-retest reliability study. Fifty-seven inpatients completed baseline and follow-up assessments in the responsiveness study. For the test-retest reliability study, the values of the intra-class correlation coefficient and the overall percentage of minimal detectable change for the Ability Scale and Self-perceived Difficulty Scale were 0.97, 12.8%, and 0.78, 35.8%, respectively. For the responsiveness study, the standardized effect size and standardized response mean (representing internal responsiveness) of the Ability Scale and Self-perceived Difficulty Scale were 1.17 and 1.56, and 0.78 and 0.89, respectively. Regarding external responsiveness, the change in score of the Ability Scale had significant and moderate association with that of the BI (r=0.61, Ptest-retest reliability and sufficient responsiveness for patients with stroke. However, the Self-perceived Difficulty Scale of the BI-SS has substantial random measurement error and insufficient external responsiveness, which may affect its utility in clinical settings. The findings of this study provide empirical evidence of psychometric properties of the BI-SS for assessing ability and self-perceived difficulty of ADL in patients with stroke.

  14. Standard error of measurement of 5 health utility indexes across the range of health for use in estimating reliability and responsiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palta, Mari; Chen, Han-Yang; Kaplan, Robert M; Feeny, David; Cherepanov, Dasha; Fryback, Dennis G

    2011-01-01

    Standard errors of measurement (SEMs) of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) indexes are not well characterized. SEM is needed to estimate responsiveness statistics, and is a component of reliability. To estimate the SEM of 5 HRQoL indexes. The National Health Measurement Study (NHMS) was a population-based survey. The Clinical Outcomes and Measurement of Health Study (COMHS) provided repeated measures. A total of 3844 randomly selected adults from the noninstitutionalized population aged 35 to 89 y in the contiguous United States and 265 cataract patients. The SF6-36v2™, QWB-SA, EQ-5D, HUI2, and HUI3 were included. An item-response theory approach captured joint variation in indexes into a composite construct of health (theta). The authors estimated 1) the test-retest standard deviation (SEM-TR) from COMHS, 2) the structural standard deviation (SEM-S) around theta from NHMS, and 3) reliability coefficients. SEM-TR was 0.068 (SF-6D), 0.087 (QWB-SA), 0.093 (EQ-5D), 0.100 (HUI2), and 0.134 (HUI3), whereas SEM-S was 0.071, 0.094, 0.084, 0.074, and 0.117, respectively. These yield reliability coefficients 0.66 (COMHS) and 0.71 (NHMS) for SF-6D, 0.59 and 0.64 for QWB-SA, 0.61 and 0.70 for EQ-5D, 0.64 and 0.80 for HUI2, and 0.75 and 0.77 for HUI3, respectively. The SEM varied across levels of health, especially for HUI2, HUI3, and EQ-5D, and was influenced by ceiling effects. Limitations. Repeated measures were 5 mo apart, and estimated theta contained measurement error. The 2 types of SEM are similar and substantial for all the indexes and vary across health.

  15. The Assessment of Positivity and Negativity in Social Networks: The Reliability and Validity of the Social Relationships Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, Rebecca A.; Uchino, Bert N.; Holt-Lunstad, Julianne; Vaughn, Allison; Reblin, Maija; Smith, Timothy W.

    2009-01-01

    The Social Relationships Index (SRI) was designed to examine positivity and negativity in social relationships. Unique features of this scale include its brevity and the ability to examine relationship positivity and negativity at the level of the specific individual and social network. The SRI's psychometric properties were examined in three…

  16. Reliability and validity of Persian version of Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis index in knee osteoarthritis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bina Eftekhar-Sadat

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: This study aimed to test the reliability and validity of translated and adapted version of Western Ontario and McMaster (WOMAC questionnaire in Persian language speaking patients with symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA of the knee. Methods: 100 consecutive patients, attended 3 major referral rehabilitation centers at the northwest of Iran, were asked to answer two disease-specific questionnaires WOMAC and knee injury and osteoarthritis outcome score (KOOS. The same patients were readmitted for refilling the same questionnaire 24-48 hours after the first visit. Internal consistency, reliability, and validity were assessed. Results: There were statistically significant correlations between WOMAC and KOOS in case of the pain (P < 0.001 and stiffness (P = 0.004 scores subclass, the sum of difficulty with performing daily activity (DPDA score (P = 0.001 and also the total score (P < 0.001. Internal consistency with Cronbach’s alpha for the pain, stiffness, and physical function subscales were 0.96, 0.98, and 0.99, respectively. Internal consistency with Cronbach’s alpha for the total score of WOMAC was 0.99. Conclusion: We found that this Persian version of WOMAC questionnaire is a reliable and valid version for evaluating the knee OA.

  17. Gait Deviation Index, Gait Profile Score and Gait Variable Score in children with spastic cerebral palsy: Intra-rater reliability and agreement across two repeated sessions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasmussen, Helle Mätzke; Nielsen, Dennis Brandborg; Pedersen, Niels Wisbech; Overgaard, Søren; Holsgaard-Larsen, Anders

    2015-07-01

    The Gait Deviation Index (GDI) and Gait Profile Score (GPS) are the most used summary measures of gait in children with cerebral palsy (CP). However, the reliability and agreement of these indices have not been investigated, limiting their clinimetric quality for research and clinical practice. The aim of this study was to investigate the intra-rater reliability and agreement of summary measures of gait (GDI; GPS; and the Gait Variable Score (GVS) derived from the GPS). The intra-rater reliability and agreement were investigated across two repeated sessions in 18 children aged 5-12 years diagnosed with spastic CP. No systematic bias was observed between the sessions and no heteroscedasticity was observed in Bland-Altman plots. For the GDI and GPS, excellent reliability with intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) values of 0.8-0.9 was found, while the GVS was found to have fair to good reliability with ICCs of 0.4-0.7. The agreement for the GDI and the logarithmically transformed GPS, in terms of the standard error of measurement as a percentage of the grand mean (SEM%) varied from 4.1 to 6.7%, whilst the smallest detectable change in percent (SDC%) ranged from 11.3 to 18.5%. For the logarithmically transformed GVS, we found a fair to large variation in SEM% from 7 to 29% and in SDC% from 18 to 81%. The GDI and GPS demonstrated excellent reliability and acceptable agreement proving that they can both be used in research and clinical practice. However, the observed large variability for some of the GVS requires cautious consideration when selecting outcome measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  19. Weather Instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

    This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

  20. The Reliable Change Index (RCI) of the WHO-5 in primary prevention of mental disorders. A measurement-based pilot study in positive psychiatry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, Per; Lindberg, Lone; Moeller, Stine B

    2018-01-01

    with the removal of the stressor. We have focused on a measurement-based method to prevent the development of an adjustment disorder. AIM: The aim of this study has been to analyze from an ongoing Worklife Barometer Survey in which the World Health Organization Well-Being Scale (WHO-5) has been applied to prevent...... distress leading to an adjustment disorder. METHODS: Persons identified with a decrease of 15 points in their repeatedly WHO-5 ratings over three months were through a brief psychological intervention by experienced psychologists. The Reliable Change Index (RCI) was used to determine the clinically...... meaningful change in the WHO-5 ratings. RESULTS: Within the group who received the psychological intervention (N = 1338), 35% of the persons were identified by the RCI analysis to have developed a clinically reliable change in the WHO-5 at the time of the intervention. The remaining 65% of the persons...

  1. Standard error of measurement of five health utility indexes across the range of health for use in estimating reliability and responsiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palta, Mari; Chen, Han-Yang; Kaplan, Robert M.; Feeny, David; Cherepanov, Dasha; Fryback, Dennis

    2011-01-01

    Background Standard errors of measurement (SEMs) of health related quality of life (HRQoL) indexes are not well characterized. SEM is needed to estimate responsiveness statistics and provides guidance on using indexes on the individual and group level. SEM is also a component of reliability. Purpose To estimate SEM of five HRQoL indexes. Design The National Health Measurement Study (NHMS) was a population based telephone survey. The Clinical Outcomes and Measurement of Health Study (COMHS) provided repeated measures 1 and 6 months post cataract surgery. Subjects 3844 randomly selected adults from the non-institutionalized population 35 to 89 years old in the contiguous United States and 265 cataract patients. Measurements The SF6-36v2™, QWB-SA, EQ-5D, HUI2 and HUI3 were included. An item-response theory (IRT) approach captured joint variation in indexes into a composite construct of health (theta). We estimated: (1) the test-retest standard deviation (SEM-TR) from COMHS, (2) the structural standard deviation (SEM-S) around the composite construct from NHMS and (3) corresponding reliability coefficients. Results SEM-TR was 0.068 (SF-6D), 0.087 (QWB-SA), 0.093 (EQ-5D), 0.100 (HUI2) and 0.134 (HUI3), while SEM-S was 0.071, 0.094, 0.084, 0.074 and 0.117, respectively. These translate into reliability coefficients for SF-6D: 0.66 (COMHS) and 0.71 (NHMS), for QWB: 0.59 and 0.64, for EQ-5D: 0.61 and 0.70 for HUI2: 0.64 and 0.80, and for HUI3: 0.75 and 0.77, respectively. The SEM varied considerably across levels of health, especially for HUI2, HUI3 and EQ-5D, and was strongly influenced by ceiling effects. Limitations Repeated measures were five months apart and estimated theta contain measurement error. Conclusions The two types of SEM are similar and substantial for all the indexes, and vary across the range of health. PMID:20935280

  2. The reliability of the ankle-brachial index in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC study and the NHLBI Family Heart Study (FHS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catellier Diane J

    2006-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A low ankle-brachial index (ABI is associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease, stroke, and death. Regression model parameter estimates may be biased due to measurement error when the ABI is included as a predictor in regression models, but may be corrected if the reliability coefficient, R, is known. The R for the ABI computed from DINAMAP™ readings of the ankle and brachial SBP is not known. Methods A total of 119 participants in both the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC study and the NHLBI Family Heart Study (FHS had repeat ABIs taken within 1 year, using a common protocol, automated oscillometric blood pressure measurement devices, and technician pool. Results The estimated reliability coefficient for the ankle systolic blood pressure (SBP was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57, 0.77 and for the brachial SBP was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.83. The reliability for the ABI based on single ankle and arm SBPs was 0.61 (95% CI: 0.50, 0.70 and the reliability of the ABI computed as the ratio of the average of two ankle SBPs to two arm SBPs was estimated from simulated data as 0.70. Conclusion These reliability estimates may be used to obtain unbiased parameter estimates if the ABI is included in regression models. Our results suggest the need for repeated measures of the ABI in clinical practice, preferably within visits and also over time, before diagnosing peripheral artery disease and before making therapeutic decisions.

  3. Validity and Reliability of the Turkish Version of the Adapted Rhodes Index of Nausea and Vomiting for Pediatrics by Child (ARINVc) and by Parent (ARINVp).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akçay Didişen, Nurdan; Yavuz, Betül; Yardimci, Figen; Basbakkal, D Zümrüt

    2018-04-01

    The study was conducted methodologically to adapt the Adapted Rhodes Index of Nausea and Vomiting for Pediatrics by Child (ARINVc) and Adapted Rhodes Index of Nausea and Vomiting for Pediatrics by Parent (ARINVp) into Turkish. The scales are administered to children who receive chemotherapy and to their parents, respectively. The study sample consisted of 8- to 18-year-old children who were hospitalized in the pediatric oncology and hematology clinics of a university hospital, met the sampling criteria, and agreed to participate in the research. The study data were collected with the Sociodemographic Attributes Information Form, ARINVc, and ARINVp using the face-to-face interview method. The mean ages of the children and their mothers and fathers who participated in the study were 13.26 ± 2.01, 36.33 ± 5.10, and 40.17 ± 4.94 years, respectively. The mean total scores obtained from the ARINVc and ARINVp were 5.43 ± 4.06 and 5.70 ± 3.77, respectively. While Cronbach's alpha reliability coefficients of the scales were .85 for the ARINVc and .84 for the ARINVp, the item-total correlation coefficients were between 0.60 and 0.89 for the ARINVc and between 0.66 and 0.85 for the ARINVp ( P < .01). The Turkish versions of ARINVc and ARINVp were determined to be valid and reliable scales.

  4. Facial Angiofibroma Severity Index (FASI): reliability assessment of a new tool developed to measure severity and responsiveness to therapy in tuberous sclerosis-associated facial angiofibroma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salido-Vallejo, R; Ruano, J; Garnacho-Saucedo, G; Godoy-Gijón, E; Llorca, D; Gómez-Fernández, C; Moreno-Giménez, J C

    2014-12-01

    Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is an autosomal dominant neurocutaneous disorder characterized by the development of multisystem hamartomatous tumours. Topical sirolimus has recently been suggested as a potential treatment for TSC-associated facial angiofibroma (FA). To validate a reproducible scale created for the assessment of clinical severity and treatment response in these patients. We developed a new tool, the Facial Angiofibroma Severity Index (FASI) to evaluate the grade of erythema and the size and extent of FAs. In total, 30 different photographs of patients with TSC were shown to 56 dermatologists at each evaluation. Three evaluations using the same photographs but in a different random order were performed 1 week apart. Test and retest reliability and interobserver reproducibility were determined. There was good agreement between the investigators. Inter-rater reliability showed strong correlations (> 0.98; range 0.97-0.99) with inter-rater correlation coefficients (ICCs) for the FASI. The global estimated kappa coefficient for the degree of intra-rater agreement (test-retest) was 0.94 (range 0.91-0.97). The FASI is a valid and reliable tool for measuring the clinical severity of TSC-associated FAs, which can be applied in clinical practice to evaluate the response to treatment in these patients. © 2014 British Association of Dermatologists.

  5. Reliability and validity of the cross-culturally adapted Turkish version of the Core Outcome Measures Index for low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Çetin, Engin; Çelik, Evrim Coşkun; Acaroğlu, Emre; Berk, Haluk

    2018-01-01

    To produce a cross-culturally adapted and validated Turkish version of The Core Outcome Measure Index (COMI) Back questionnaire. Ninety-six Turkish-speaking patients with non-specific low back pain (LBP) were recruited from orthopedic and physical therapy outpatient clinics in a public hospital. They completed a booklet of questionnaires containing Turkish version of COMI, adjectival pain scale, Roland Morris disability questionnaire, European 5 Dimension Questionnaire and brief version of World Health Organization Quality of Life Questionnaire. Within following 7-14 days, 67 patients, reported no or minimal changes in their back pain status, completed the Turkish COMI again to assess reproducibility. Data quality was good with very few missing answers. COMI summary index score displayed 3% floor effects and no ceiling effects. The correlations between the COMI summary index score and each of the full instrument whole scores were found to be excellent to very good (ρ = - 0.81 to 0.74). Reliability expressed as intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was 0.95 (95% CI 0.91-0.97). Standard error of measurement (SEM agreement ) was acceptable at 0.41 and the minimum detectable change (MDC 95% ) was 1.14. Turkish version of the COMI has acceptable psychometric properties. It is a valid and reliable instrument and cross-culturally adapted, in accordance with established guidelines, for the use by Turkish-speaking patients. It can be recommended for use in evaluation of patients with chronic LBP in daily practice, in international multicenter studies and in spine registry systems.

  6. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

  7. Split hand muscle echo intensity index as a reliable imaging marker for differential diagnosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seok, Hung Youl; Park, Jinseok; Kim, Yoo Hwan; Oh, Ki-Wook; Kim, Seung Hyun; Kim, Byung-Jo

    2018-04-17

    The objective of this study was to investigate the usefulness of muscle ultrasound in evaluating dissociated small hand muscle atrophy, termed 'split hand', and its feasibility in the diagnosis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Forty-four patients with ALS, 18 normal subjects and 9 patients with other neuromuscular disorders were included in this study. The hand muscles were divided into three regions, the median-innervated lateral hand muscle group (ML), the ulnar-innervated lateral hand muscle (UL) and the ulnar-innervated medial hand muscle (UM), and the muscle echo intensity (EI) and compound muscle action potential (CMAP) were measured. We calculated the split hand index (SHI) using muscle EI (SHI mEI ) and CMAP (SHI CMAP ) for comparison among groups. The SHI was derived by dividing muscle EI (or CMAP) measured at the ML and UL by that measured at the UM. The SHI mEI was significantly higher in patients with ALS (51.7±28.3) than in normal controls (29.7±9.9) and disease controls with other neuromuscular disorders (36.5±7.3; Pdifferentiating ALS from other neuromuscular disorders and healthy controls. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  8. Quality of life in oncological patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia: validity and reliability of the Dutch version of the MD Anderson Dysphagia Inventory and the Deglutition Handicap Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speyer, Renée; Heijnen, Bas J; Baijens, Laura W; Vrijenhoef, Femke H; Otters, Elsemieke F; Roodenburg, Nel; Bogaardt, Hans C

    2011-12-01

    Quality of life is an important outcome measurement in objectifying the current health status or therapy effects in patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia. In this study, the validity and reliability of the Dutch version of the Deglutition Handicap Index (DHI) and the MD Anderson Dysphagia Inventory (MDADI) have been determined for oncological patients with oropharyngeal dysphagia. At Maastricht University Medical Center, 76 consecutive patients were selected and asked to fill in three questionnaires on quality of life related to oropharyngeal dysphagia (the SWAL-QOL, the MDADI, and the DHI) as well as a simple one-item visual analog Dysphagia Severity Scale. None of the quality-of-life questionnaires showed any floor or ceiling effect. The test-retest reliability of the MDADI and the Dysphagia Severity Scale proved to be good. The test-retest reliability of the DHI could not be determined because of insufficient data, but the intraclass correlation coefficients were rather high. The internal consistency proved to be good. However, confirmatory factor analysis could not distinguish the underlying constructs as defined by the subscales per questionnaire. When assessing criterion validity, both the MDADI and the DHI showed satisfactory associations with the SWAL-QOL (reference or gold standard) after having removed the less relevant subscales of the SWAL-QOL. In conclusion, when assessing the validity and reliability of the Dutch version of the DHI or the MDADI, not all psychometric properties have been adequately met. In general, because of difficulties in the interpretation of study results when using questionnaires lacking sufficient psychometric quality, it is recommended that researchers strive to use questionnaires with the most optimal psychometric properties.

  9. Reliability and validity of the Bowel Function Index for evaluating opioid-induced constipation: translation, cultural adaptation and validation of the Portuguese version (BFI-P).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dueñas, María; Mendonça, Liliane; Sampaio, Rute; Gouvinhas, Cláudia; Oliveira, Daniela; Castro-Lopes, José Manuel; Azevedo, Luís Filipe

    2017-03-01

    The Bowel Function Index (BFI) is a simple and sound bowel function and opioid-induced constipation (OIC) screening tool. We aimed to develop the translation and cultural adaptation of this measure (BFI-P) and to assess its reliability and validity for the Portuguese language and a chronic pain population. The BFI-P was created after a process including translation, back translation and cultural adaptation. Participants (n = 226) were recruited in a chronic pain clinic and were assessed at baseline and after one week. Internal consistency, test-retest reliability, responsiveness, construct (convergent and known groups) and factorial validity were assessed. Test-retest reliability had an intra-class correlation of 0.605 for BFI mean score. Internal consistency of BFI had Cronbach's alpha of 0.865. The construct validity of BFI-P was shown to be excellent and the exploratory factor analysis confirmed its unidimensional structure. The responsiveness of BFI-P was excellent, with a suggested 17-19 point and 8-12 point change in score constituting a clinically relevant change in constipation for patients with and without previous constipation, respectively. This study had some limitations, namely, the criterion validity of BFI-P was not directly assessed; and the absence of a direct criterion for OIC precluded the assessment of the criterion based responsiveness of BFI-P. Nevertheless, BFI may importantly contribute to better OIC screening and its Portuguese version (BFI-P) has been shown to have excellent reliability, internal consistency, validity and responsiveness. Further suggestions regarding statistically and clinically important change cut-offs for this instrument are presented.

  10. Content Validity Index and Intra- and Inter-Rater Reliability of a New Muscle Strength/Endurance Test Battery for Swedish Soldiers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena Larsson

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to examine the content validity of commonly used muscle performance tests in military personnel and to investigate the reliability of a proposed test battery. For the content validity investigation, thirty selected tests were those described in the literature and/or commonly used in the Nordic and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO countries. Nine selected experts rated, on a four-point Likert scale, the relevance of these tests in relation to five different work tasks: lifting, carrying equipment on the body or in the hands, climbing, and digging. Thereafter, a content validity index (CVI was calculated for each work task. The result showed excellent CVI (≥0.78 for sixteen tests, which comprised of one or more of the military work tasks. Three of the tests; the functional lower-limb loading test (the Ranger test, dead-lift with kettlebells, and back extension, showed excellent content validity for four of the work tasks. For the development of a new muscle strength/endurance test battery, these three tests were further supplemented with two other tests, namely, the chins and side-bridge test. The inter-rater reliability was high (intraclass correlation coefficient, ICC2,1 0.99 for all five tests. The intra-rater reliability was good to high (ICC3,1 0.82-0.96 with an acceptable standard error of mean (SEM, except for the side-bridge test (SEM%>15. Thus, the final suggested test battery for a valid and reliable evaluation of soldiers' muscle performance comprised the following four tests; the Ranger test, dead-lift with kettlebells, chins, and back extension test. The criterion-related validity of the test battery should be further evaluated for soldiers exposed to varying physical workload.

  11. Reliability and validity of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities (WOMAC) Osteoarthritis Index in Italian patients with osteoarthritis of the knee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaffi, F; Leardini, G; Canesi, B; Mannoni, A; Fioravanti, A; Caporali, R; Lapadula, G; Punzi, L

    2003-08-01

    The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities (WOMAC) Osteoarthritis (OA) Index is a tested questionnaire to assess symptoms and physical functional disability in patients with OA of the knee and the hip. We adapted the WOMAC for the Italian language and tested its metric properties in 304 patients with symptomatic OA of the knee. Three hundred and four consecutive patients, attending 29 rheumatologic outpatient clinic in northern, central, and southern Italy, were asked to answer two disease-specific questionnaires (WOMAC and Lequesne algofunctional index) and one generic instrument (Medical Outcomes Study SF-36 Health Survey-MOS SF-36). A sample of 258 patients was readministered the WOMAC 7-10 days after the first visit and the structured interview, which also assessed demographic and other characteristics. Internal consistency was assessed using Cronbach's alpha, reliability using intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs), and construct and discriminant validity using Spearman's correlations, Wilcoxon rank sum test, and Kruskal-Wallis test. All WOMAC subscales (pain, stiffness, and physical function) were internally consistent with Cronbach's coefficient alpha of 0.91, 0.81, and 0.84, respectively. Test-retest reliability was satisfactory with ICCs of 0.86, 0.68, and 0.89, respectively. In comparison with the SF-36, the expected correlations were found when comparing items measuring similar constructs, supporting the concepts of convergent construct validity. Very high correlations were also obtained between WOMAC scores and Lequesne OA algofunctional index. WOMAC physical function, but not WOMAC stiffness and pain subscales, was weakly associated with radiological OA severity (P=0.03). Also, WOMAC pain score was inversely correlated (P=0.01) with years of formal education. Examination of discriminant validity showed that the scores on the WOMAC and SF-36 followed hypothesized patterns: the WOMAC discriminated better among subjects with varying severity of

  12. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  13. A review of culturally adapted versions of the Oswestry Disability Index: the adaptation process, construct validity, test-retest reliability and internal consistency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheahan, Peter J; Nelson-Wong, Erika J; Fischer, Steven L

    2015-01-01

    The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) is a self-report-based outcome measure used to quantify the extent of disability related to low back pain (LBP), a substantial contributor to workplace absenteeism. The ODI tool has been adapted for use by patients in several non-English speaking nations. It is unclear, however, if these adapted versions of the ODI are as credible as the original ODI developed for English-speaking nations. The objective of this study was to conduct a review of the literature to identify culturally adapted versions of the ODI and to report on the adaptation process, construct validity, test-retest reliability and internal consistency of these ODIs. Following a pragmatic review process, data were extracted from each study with regard to these four outcomes. While most studies applied adaptation processes in accordance with best-practice guidelines, there were some deviations. However, all studies reported high-quality psychometric properties: group mean construct validity was 0.734 ± 0.094 (indicated via a correlation coefficient), test-retest reliability was 0.937 ± 0.032 (indicated via an intraclass correlation coefficient) and internal consistency was 0.876 ± 0.047 (indicated via Cronbach's alpha). Researchers can be confident when using any of these culturally adapted ODIs, or when comparing and contrasting results between cultures where these versions were employed. Implications for Rehabilitation Low back pain is the second leading cause of disability in the world, behind only cancer. The Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) has been developed as a self-report outcome measure of low back pain for administration to patients. An understanding of the various cross-cultural adaptations of the ODI is important for more concerted multi-national research efforts. This review examines 16 cross-cultural adaptations of the ODI and should inform the work of health care and rehabilitation professionals.

  14. Reliability and comparative validity of a Diet Quality Index for assessing dietary patterns of preschool-aged children in Sydney, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunaratnam, Kanita; Halaki, Mark; Wen, Li Ming; Baur, Louise A; Flood, Victoria M

    2018-03-01

    To report on the reliability and validity of a Diet Quality Index (DQI) to assess preschoolers dietary patterns using a short food frequency questionnaire (sFFQ) and 3-day food records (3d-FR). Seventy-seven preschool carers/parents completed a telephone interview on preschoolers (2-5-year olds) dietary habits in metropolitan Sydney. Agreement in scores was assessed using intraclass correlation (ICC) and paired t-tests for repeated sFFQ-DQI scores and Bland-Altman methods and paired t-tests for sFFQ-DQI and 3d-FR-DQI scores. Mean-total sFFQ-DQI ICC scores was high = 0.89, 95% CI (0.81, 0.93). There was weak agreement between sFFQ-DQI and 3d-FR-DQI scores (r = 0.36, p < 0.01). The 3d-FR-DQI scores were positively associated with carbohydrate, folate, ß-carotene, magnesium, calcium, protein, total fat and negatively associated with sugar, starch, niacin, vitamin C, phosphorus, polyunsaturated fat, and monounsaturated fat. The sFFQ-DQI demonstrated good reliability but weak validity. Associations between nutrients and 3d-FR-DQI scores indicate promising usability and warrants further investigation. Further research is needed to establish its validity in accurately scoring children's diet quality using sFFQ compared to 3d-FR before the tool can be implemented for use in population settings.

  15. Reliability, factor analysis and internal consistency calculation of the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) in French and in English among Lebanese adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahoud, M; Chahine, R; Salameh, P; Sauleau, E A

    2017-06-01

    Our goal is to validate and to verify the reliability of the French and English versions of the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) in Lebanese adolescents. A cross-sectional study was implemented. 104 Lebanese students aged between 14 and 19 years participated in the study. The English version of the questionnaire was distributed to English-speaking students and the French version was administered to French-speaking students. A scale (1 to 7 with 1 = very well understood and 7 = not at all) was used to identify the level of the students' understanding of each instruction, question and answer of the ISI. The scale's structural validity was assessed. The factor structure of ISI was evaluated by principal component analysis. The internal consistency of this scale was evaluated by Cronbach's alpha. To assess test-retest reliability the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used. The principal component analysis confirmed the presence of a two-component factor structure in the English version and a three-component factor structure in the French version with eigenvalues > 1. The English version of the ISI had an excellent internal consistency (α = 0.90), while the French version had a good internal consistency (α = 0.70). The ICC presented an excellent agreement in the French version (ICC = 0.914, CI = 0.856-0.949) and a good agreement in the English one (ICC = 0.762, CI = 0.481-890). The Bland-Altman plots of the two versions of the ISI showed that the responses over two weeks' were comparable and very few outliers were detected. The results of our analyses reveal that both English and French versions of the ISI scale have good internal consistency and are reproducible and reliable. Therefore, it can be used to assess the prevalence of insomnia in Lebanese adolescents.

  16. Validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the Optimality Index-US (OI-US) to assess maternity care outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yucel, Cigdem; Taskin, Lale; Low, Lisa Kane

    2015-12-01

    Although obstetrical interventions are used commonly in Turkey, there is no standardized evidence-based assessment tool to evaluate maternity care outcomes. The Optimality Index-US (OI-US) is an evidence-based tool that was developed for the purpose of measuring aggregate perinatal care processes and outcomes against an optimal or best possible standard. This index has been validated and used in Netherlands, USA and UK until now. The objective of this study was to adapt the OI-US to assess maternity care outcomes in Turkey. Translation and back translation were used to develop the Optimality Index-Turkey (OI-TR) version. To evaluate the content validity of the OI-TR, an expert panel group (n=10) reviewed the items and evidence-based quality of the OI-TR for application in Turkey. Following the content validity process, the OI-TR was used to assess 150 healthy and 150 high-risk pregnant women who gave birth at a high volume, urban maternity hospital in Turkey. The scores between the two groups were compared to assess the discriminant validity of the OI-TR. The percentage of agreement between two raters and the Kappa statistic were calculated to evaluate the reliability. Content validity was established for the OI-TR by an expert group. Discriminant validity was confirmed by comparing the OI scores of healthy pregnant women (mean OI score=77.65%) and those of high-risk pregnant women (mean OI score=78.60%). The percentage of agreement between the two raters was 96.19, and inter-rater agreement was provided for each item in the OI-TR. OI-TR is a valid and reliable tool that can be used to assess maternity care outcomes in Turkey. The results of this study indicate that although the risk statuses of the women differed, the type of care they received was essentially the same, as measured by the OI-TR. Care was not individualised based on risk and for a majority of items was inconsistent with evidence based practice, which is not optimal. Use of the OI-TR will help to

  17. Changes in fire weather distributions: effects on predicted fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucy A. Salazar; Larry S. Bradshaw

    1984-01-01

    Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the...

  18. Análise da confiabilidade e da correlação de dois índices de estimativa da maturação esquelética: índice carpal e índice vertebral Reliability and correlation analysis of two skeletal maturation evaluation indexes: hand-wrist index and cervical vertebrae index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa Feres Damian

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: o objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar a confiabilidade e a correlação de dois índices de estimativa da maturação esquelética. METODOLOGIA: foi utilizada uma amostra de 210 radiografias carpais e telerradiografias laterais, de arquivo, de pacientes de ambos os gêneros, com idade entre 7 e 18 anos. As radiografias carpais foram utilizadas na determinação do Índice de Maturação Carpal (IMC e as telerradiografias laterais na determinação do Índice de Maturação Vertebral (IMV. Cada grupo de radiografias foi examinado e reexaminado por 4 avaliadores, para analisar a confiabilidade de cada índice, e ainda foi realizada a comparação entre os estágios do IMC e do IMV, para avaliar a correlação entre os índices. RESULTADOS: os resultados demonstraram que não houve diferença estatisticamente significante entre os 4 observadores nas avaliações do IMC e do IMV (pAIM: the aim of this study were to evaluate the reliability and correlation of two different skeletal maturation evaluation indexes. METHODS: two hundred and ten hand-wrist and cephalometric radiographs from files of patients with 7- 18 years old were used. The hand-wrist radiographs were used to determine the skeletal maturation index (SMI and the cephalometric radiographs to determine the cervical vertebrae maturation index (CVMI. Four independent evaluators were asked to examine twice each radiography and to verify the reliability of each index. The stages of SMI and CVMI were compared to evaluate the relationship between them. RESULTS: the results were not statisticaly different among the four evaluators on SMI and CVMI indexes (p<0.00001. The correlation average to SMI was 95% for the first evaluation and 93.5% for the second evaluation. On the CVMI, the correlation average was 84% for the first evaluation and 74% for the second evaluation. The correlation intraoperator did not showed significant difference (p<0.00001 and the average for SMI was 93.5% and for

  19. Development of the Italian version of the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI-I): A cross-cultural adaptation, reliability, and validity study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monticone, Marco; Baiardi, Paola; Ferrari, Silvano; Foti, Calogero; Mugnai, Raffaele; Pillastrini, Paolo; Vanti, Carla; Zanoli, Gustavo

    2009-09-01

    Evaluation of the psychometric properties of a translated, culturally adapted questionnaire. Translating, culturally adapting, and validating the Italian version of the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI-I), allowing its use in Italian-speaking patients with low back pain inside and outside Italy. Growing attention is devoted to standardized outcome measures to improve interventions for low back pain. A translated form of the ODI in patients with low back pain has never been validated within the Italian population. The ODI-I questionnaire was developed involving forward-backward translation, final review by an expert committee and test of the prefinal version to establish as better as possible proper correspondence with the original English latest version (2.1a). Psychometric testing included factor analysis, reliability by internal consistency (Cronbach alpha) and test-retest repeatability (Intraclass Coefficient Correlation), concurrent validity by comparing the ODI-I to Visual Analogue Scale, (Pearson correlation), and construct validity by comparing the ODI-I to Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire, RMDQ, and to Short Form Health Survey, Short Form Health Survey-36 (Pearson correlation). The authors required a 3-month period before achieving a shared version of the ODI-I. The questionnaire was administered to 126 subjects, showing satisfying acceptability. Factor analysis demonstrated a 1-factor structure (45% of explained variance). The questionnaire showed high internal consistency (alpha = 0.855) and good test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.961). Concurrent validity was confirmed by a high correlation with Visual Analogue Scale (r = 0.73, P < 0.001), Construct validity revealed high correlations with RMDQ (r = 0.819, P < 0.001), and with Short Form Health Survey-36 domains, highly significant with the exception of Mental Health (r = -0.139, P = 0.126). The ODI outcome measure was successfully translated into Italian, showing good factorial structure and

  20. National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

  1. Reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index for elderly patients with a femoral neck fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgers, Paul T P W; Poolman, Rudolf W; Van Bakel, Theodorus M J; Tuinebreijer, Wim E; Zielinski, Stephanie M; Bhandari, Mohit; Patka, Peter; Van Lieshout, Esther M M

    2015-05-06

    The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) has been extensively evaluated in groups of patients with osteoarthritis, yet not in patients with a femoral neck fracture. This study aimed to determine the reliability, construct validity, and responsiveness of the WOMAC compared with the Short Form-12 (SF-12) and the EuroQol 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaires for the assessment of elderly patients with a femoral neck fracture. Reliability was tested by assessing the Cronbach alpha. Construct validity was determined with the Pearson correlation coefficient. Change scores were calculated from ten weeks to twelve months of follow-up. Standardized response means and floor and ceiling effects were determined. Analyses were performed to compare the results for patients less than eighty years old with those for patients eighty years of age or older. The mean WOMAC total score was 89 points before the fracture in the younger patients and increased from 70 points at ten weeks to 81 points at two years postoperatively. In the older age group, these scores were 86, 75, and 78 points. The mean WOMAC pain scores before the fracture and at ten weeks and two years postoperatively were 92, 76, and 87 points, respectively, in the younger age group and 92, 84, and 93 points in the older age group. Function scores were 89, 68, and 79 points for the younger age group and 84, 71, and 73 points for the older age group. The Cronbach alpha for pain, stiffness, function, and the total scale ranged from 0.83 to 0.98 for the younger age group and from 0.79 to 0.97 for the older age group. Construct validity was good, with 82% and 79% of predefined hypotheses confirmed in the younger and older age groups, respectively. Responsiveness was moderate. No floor effects were found. Moderate to large ceiling effects were found for pain and stiffness scales at ten weeks and twelve months in younger patients (18% to 36%) and in the older age group (38% to 53%). The WOMAC showed good

  2. Ionospheric research for space weather service support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

    2016-07-01

    Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is

  3. Reliability of the revised Scoliosis Research Society-22 and Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) questionnaires in adult spinal deformity when administered by telephone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokshan, Steven L; Godzik, Jakub; Dalton, Jonathan; Jaffe, Jennifer; Lenke, Lawrence G; Kelly, Michael P

    2016-09-01

    The non-response rates are as high as 20% to 50% after 5 years of follow-up in adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery. Minimizing loss to follow-up is essential to protect the quality of data in long-term studies. Phone and internet administration of outcomes instruments has grown in popularity and has been found to not only provide a convenient way of collecting data, but also show improved response rates. The study aimed to examine the reliability of the revised Scoliosis Research Society-22 (SRS-22r) and the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) questionnaires in ASD patients when administered by telephone. This is a single-center, randomized crossover phone validation of ASD patients. The study included ASD patients presenting to a tertiary spine care center. The outcome measures were ODI and SRS-22r. Forty-nine patients (mean age: 55.7 years) with ASD were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either phone completion of the SRS-22r and ODI followed by in-office completion, or to in-office completion followed by phone completion. An interval of 2 to 4 weeks was placed between administrations of each version. A paired t test was used to assess the difference between the written and phone versions, and intraclass correlation coefficients were used to assess homogeneity. Finally, goodness-of-fit testing was used to assess version preference. There was no significant difference between the phone and in-office versions of the SRS-22r (p=.174) or the ODI (p=.320). The intraclass correlation coefficients of the SRS-22r and ODI were 0.91 and 0.86, respectively. Completion over the phone was the most popular option (57% preferred phone, 29% preferred in-office, and 14% had no preference). Phone administration of the SRS-22r and ODI to ASD patients provides a convenient and reliable tool for reducing loss of follow-up data. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  5. Reliability data banks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.

    1991-01-01

    Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)

  6. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  7. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

    1993-08-01

    This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

  8. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  9. Principles of Bridge Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, Andrzej S.

    The paper gives a brief introduction to the basic principles of structural reliability theory and its application to bridge engineering. Fundamental concepts like failure probability and reliability index are introduced. Ultimate as well as serviceability limit states for bridges are formulated......, and as an example the reliability profile and a sensitivity analyses for a corroded reinforced concrete bridge is shown....

  10. Weathering and landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

    2005-04-01

    In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

  11. Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

  12. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  13. Reliability, factor analysis and internal consistency calculation of the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI in French and in English among Lebanese adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Chahoud

    2017-06-01

    Conclusion: The results of our analyses reveal that both English and French versions of the ISI scale have good internal consistency and are reproducible and reliable. Therefore, it can be used to assess the prevalence of insomnia in Lebanese adolescents.

  14. The Reliability and Validity of Toe Grip Strength as an Index of Physical Development in 4- to 5-Year-Old Children

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Takahiro Ikeda[1; Osamu Aoyagi[2

    2015-01-01

    Studies on TGS (toe-grip strength) are currently proliferating as a result of the development of the dynamometer. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the reliability and validity of TGS as a physical function in preschool aged children. The participants were 153 preschoolers. Each participant was measured in terms of his or her TGS and completed a MAT (motor ability test). The reliability of the measurements was investigated via Pearson's r and Cronbach's a through a test-retest method, as well as a Bland-Altman plot. The validity of the TGS value was investigated by measuring the correlation between TGS and each component of the MAT, the principal component analysis, and a two-way layout ANOVA with general linear model (gender and age). All reliability coefficients were more than 0.70. Though all components of the MAT relating to TGS were found to be significant (P 〈 0.05), these correlations were weak. However, TGS was found to be a physical function that relating to the lower limbs and develops with aging. Therefore, TGS was found to be a highly reliable measure of physical function performance in preschoolers.

  15. Progress in space weather predictions and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundstedt, H.

    The methods of today's predictions of space weather and effects are so much more advanced and yesterday's statistical methods are now replaced by integrated knowledge-based neuro-computing models and MHD methods. Within the ESA Space Weather Programme Study a real-time forecast service has been developed for space weather and effects. This prototype is now being implemented for specific users. Today's applications are not only so many more but also so much more advanced and user-oriented. A scientist needs real-time predictions of a global index as input for an MHD model calculating the radiation dose for EVAs. A power company system operator needs a prediction of the local value of a geomagnetically induced current. A science tourist needs to know whether or not aurora will occur. Soon we might even be able to predict the tropospheric climate changes and weather caused by the space weather.

  16. Nonlinear Conte-Zbilut-Federici (CZF Method of Computing LF/HF Ratio: A More Reliable Index of Changes in Heart Rate Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vernon Bond Jr

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Acupuncture treatments are safe and effective for a wide variety of diseases involving autonomic dysregulation. Heart rate variability (HRV is a noninvasive method for assessing sympathovagal balance. The low frequency/high frequency (LF/HF spectral power ratio is an index of sympathovagal influence on heart rate and of cardi

  17. A study examining inter-rater and intrarater reliability of a novel instrument for assessment of psoriasis: the Copenhagen Psoriasis Severity Index.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berth-Jones, J.; Thompson, J.; Papp, K.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There is a perceived need for a better method for clinical assessment of the severity of psoriasis vulgaris. The most frequently used system is the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI), which has significant disadvantages, including the requirement for assessment of the percentage of

  18. Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

    2018-03-01

    Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

  19. Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intriligator, Devrie S.

    2009-12-01

    The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

  20. Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  1. Mariners Weather Log

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

  2. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  3. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  4. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  5. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  6. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  7. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  8. Radar Weather Observation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

  9. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  10. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  11. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  12. Space Weather in Operation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

  13. Concept of Operations for Road Weather Connected Vehicle and Automated Vehicle Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-21

    Weather has a significant impact on the operations of the nation's roadway system year round. These weather events translate into changes in traffic conditions, roadway safety, travel reliability, operational effectiveness and productivity. It is, th...

  14. Cold-Weather Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

  15. Statistical Analysis of Asian WeatherDerivatives

    OpenAIRE

    Jiao, Yue

    2009-01-01

    Since last decade, weather derivatives have been traded by Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME) to hedge the weather risk. In addition to HDD,CDD and CAT, which are index written on the temperature in U.S. and Europe, Pacific Rim Index is newly developed and actively traded nowadays. In terms of the great value of research on this new instrument, we study the temperature dynamics of 4 cities in Asia: Tokyo, Osaka, Taipei and Beijing by a continuous-time autoregressive process. We further inferred...

  16. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  17. Demonstration of the test-retest reliability and sensitivity of the Lower Limb Functional Index-10 as a measure of functional recovery post burn injury: a cross-sectional repeated measures study design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryland, Margaret E; Grisbrook, Tiffany L; Wood, Fiona M; Phillips, Michael; Edgar, Dale W

    2016-01-01

    Lower limb burns can significantly delay recovery of function. Measuring lower limb functional outcomes is challenging in the unique burn patient population and necessitates the use of reliable and valid tools. The aims of this study were to examine the test-retest reliability, sensitivity, and internal consistency of Sections 1 and 3 of the Lower Limb Functional Index-10 (LLFI-10) questionnaire for measuring functional ability in patients with lower limb burns over time. Twenty-nine adult patients who had sustained a lower limb burn injury in the previous 12 months completed the test-retest procedure of the study. In addition, the minimal detectable change (MDC) was calculated for Section 1 and 3 of the LLFI-10. Section 1 is focused on the activity limitations experienced by patients with a lower limb disorder whereas Section 3 involves patients indicating their current percentage of pre-injury duties. Section 1 of the LLFI-10 demonstrated excellent test-retest reliability (intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.98, 95 % CI 0.96-0.99) whilst Section 3 demonstrated high test-retest reliability (ICC 0.88, 95 % CI 0.79-0.94). MDC scores for Sections 1 and 3 were 1.27 points and 30.22 %, respectively. Internal consistency was demonstrated with a significant negative association (r s  = -0.83) between Sections 1 and 3 of the LLFI-10 (p reliable for measuring functional ability in patients who have sustained lower limb burns in the previous 12 months, and furthermore, Section 1 is sensitive to changes in patient function over time.

  18. Reliability tests and validation tests of the client satisfaction questionnaire (CSQ-8) as an index of satisfaction with childbirth-related care among Filipino women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsubara, Chieko; Green, Joseph; Astorga, Linda Teresa; Daya, Edgardo L; Jervoso, Honorato C; Gonzaga, Edgardo M; Jimba, Masamine

    2013-12-17

    Satisfaction is an important indicator of the quality of care during childbirth. Previous research found that a good environment at a health facility can increase the number of deliveries at that facility. In contrast, an unsatisfying childbirth experience could cause postpartum mental disorder. Therefore it is important to measure mothers' satisfaction with their childbirth experiences. We tested whether the eight-item Client Satisfaction Questionnaire (CSQ-8) provided useful information about satisfaction with childbirth-related care. The government of the Philippines promotes childbirth at health facilities, so we tested the CSQ-8 in the Philippine cities of Ormoc and Palo. This was a cross-sectional study. We targeted multigravid mothers whose last baby had been delivered at a hospital (without complications) and whose 2nd-to-last baby had been delivered at a hospital or at home (without complications). We developed versions of the CSQ-8 in Cebuano and Waray, which are two of the six major Filipino languages. Reliability tests and validation tests were done with data from 100 Cebuano-speaking mothers and 106 Waray-speaking mothers. Both the Cebuano and Waray versions of the CSQ-8 had high coefficients of internal-consistency reliability (greater than 0.80). Both versions were also unidimensional, which is generally consistent with the English CSQ-8 in a mental-health setting. As hypothesized, the scores for data regarding the second-to-last delivery were higher for mothers who had both their second-to-last and their last delivery in a hospital, than for mothers who had their second-to-last delivery at home and their last delivery in a hospital (Cebuano: p one language. These versions of the CSQ-8 can now be used to assess mothers' satisfaction, so that mothers' opinions can be taken into account in efforts to improve childbirth-related services, which could increase the proportion of deliveries in medical facilities and thus reduce maternal mortality.

  19. Future weather types and their influence on mean and extreme climate indices for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulf Riediger

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In Central Europe, the spatial and temporal distributions of precipitation and temperature are determined by the occurrence of major weather types. In this paper, we examine climate indices (i.e. mean values or hot, cold, wet and dry days for different weather types in a recent (1971–2000 and future climate (2070–2099. The weather types are classified objectively for the control run and for the A1B scenario with an ensemble of eight global climate simulations (GCM to be compared with different reanalyses. To derive climate indices, the high-resolution, regionalized reference dataset HYRAS and an ensemble of nine regional climate simulations (RCM are used. Firstly, the reliability of simulated weather patterns and their climate indices are tested in the control period. The reanalyses circulation climatology can be reproduced well by the GCM ensemble mean. For temperature and precipitation, each climate index is characterized and evaluated in terms of defined weather patterns. The comparison of HYRAS and RCM data show reliable mean temperature values with differences between weather classes by +2$+2$ to -6$-6$ °C during winter (13 to 19 °C in summer. The analysis of observed and simulated precipitation reveal that mean winter precipitation is significantly influenced by the direction of air flow, while in summer, mesoscale atmospheric patterns of cyclonic rotation play a larger role. Secondly, the analysis of potential future changes simulated by the RCM ensemble were able to demonstrate that weather type changes, superior climate trends (such as mean warming and their interaction lead to major changes for precipitation and temperature in Central Europe. While temperature differences between cold and warm weather types are nearly stable over time, the ensemble temperature changes (with a range of +2$+2$ to +4$+4$ °C reinforce warm/hot conditions in the future winter and summer. Milder, wetter winters can be explained by an increased

  20. Robotic weather balloon launchers spread in Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Julia

    2018-04-01

    Last week, things began stirring inside the truck-size box that sat among melting piles of snow at the airport in Fairbanks, Alaska. Before long, the roof of the box yawned open and a weather balloon took off into the sunny afternoon, instruments dangling. The entire launch was triggered with the touch of a button, 5 kilometers away at an office of the National Weather Service (NWS). The flight was smooth, just one of hundreds of twice-daily balloon launches around the world that radio back crucial data for weather forecasts. But most of those balloons are launched by people; the robotic launchers, which are rolling out across Alaska, are proving to be controversial. NWS says the autolaunchers will save money and free up staff to work on more pressing matters. But representatives of the employee union question their reliability, and say they will hasten the end of Alaska's remote weather offices, where forecasting duties and hours have already been slashed.

  1. Space Weather Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  2. Cockpit weather information needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Charles H.

    1992-01-01

    The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

  3. INDEXING AND INDEX FUNDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HAKAN SARITAŞ

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis believe that active portfolio management is largely wasted effort and unlikely to justify the expenses incurred. Therefore, they advocate a passive investment strategy that makes no attempt to outsmart the market. One common strategy for passive management is indexing where a fund is designed to replicate the performance of a broad-based index of stocks and bonds. Traditionally, indexing was used by institutional investors, but today, the use of index funds proliferated among individual investors. Over the years, both international and domestic index funds have disproportionately outperformed the market more than the actively managed funds have.

  4. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  5. A new method to quantify carbonate rock weathering

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubois, C.; Deceuster, J.; Kaufmann, O.; Rowberry, Matthew David

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 47, č. 8 (2015), s. 889-935 ISSN 1874-8961 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 Keywords : weathering index * alterite * limestone * physical model Subject RIV: DE - Earth Magnetism, Geodesy, Geography Impact factor: 1.777, year: 2015

  6. Maintaining US Space Weather Capabilities after DMSP: Research to Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machuzak, J. S.; Gentile, L. C.; Burke, W. J.; Holeman, E. G.; Ober, D. M.; Wilson, G. R.

    2012-12-01

    The first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) spacecraft was launched in 1972; the last is scheduled to fly in 2020. Presently, there is no replacement for the space-weather monitoring sensors that now fly on DMSP. The present suite has provided comprehensive, long-term records that constitute a critical component of the US space weather corporate memory. Evolving operational needs and research accomplishments justify continued collection of space environmental data. Examples include measurements to: (1) Monitor the Dst index in real time as a driver of next-generation satellite drag models; (2) Quantify electromagnetic energy fluxes from deep space to the ionosphere/ thermosphere that heat neutrals, drive disturbance-dynamo winds and degrade precise orbit determinations; (3) Determine strengths of stormtime electric fields at high and low latitudes that lead to severe blackouts and spacecraft anomalies; (4) Specify variability of plasma density irregularities, equatorial plasma bubbles, and the Appleton anomaly to improve reliability of communication, navigation and surveillance links; (5) Characterize energetic particle fluxes responsible for auroral clutter and radar degradation; (6) Map regions of L-Band scintillation for robust GPS applications; and (7) Update the World Magnetic Field Model needed to maintain guidance system superiority. These examples illustrate the utility of continued space environment awareness. Comprehensive assessments of both operational requirements and research advances are needed to make informed selections of sensors and spacecraft that support future capabilities. A proposed sensor set and satellite constellation to provide the needed measurement capabilities will be presented.

  7. Fabulous Weather Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

    2007-01-01

    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  8. Designing a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.

    2012-01-01

    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  9. KSC Weather and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

    2016-01-01

    This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

  10. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

  11. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  12. Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Erhard M.

    1987-06-01

    Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

  13. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  14. Fair weather atmospheric electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R G

    2011-01-01

    Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

  15. Introducing GFWED: The Global Fire Weather Database

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.; Spessa, A. C.; Aziz, N. A.; Camia, A.; Cantin, A.; Carr, R.; de Groot, W. J.; Dowdy, A. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Manomaiphiboon, K.; hide

    2015-01-01

    The Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations, beginning in 1980, called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5 latitude by 2-3 longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded data sets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia,Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DCD1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously identified in MERRAs precipitation, and they reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at continental and global scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphereocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models.

  16. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  17. Spatial variation of the Universal Thermal Climate Index in Lublin in specified weather scenarios / Zróżnicowanie przestrzenne wskaźnika UTCI w Lublinie w określonych scenariuszach pogodowych

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobek, Mateusz; Demczuk, Piotr; Nowosad, Marek

    2013-06-01

    Due to the diversified land relief and presence of numerous gorge dissections intensively used by man largely for recreational purposes, Lublin is a valuable study area in terms of bioclimatology. The results of modelling of the variation of the bioclimatic conditions of Lublin provide information useful e.g. in the economy and spatial planning. The determined features of the city's bioclimate can be a significant element in the selection of locations for new residential and recreational investments. Knowledge on the spatial variation of biometeorological situations positively and negatively influencing the human organism can also find application in activities concerning the improvement of life quality and health protection, as well as in tourism and recreation. The objective of the paper is to present the spatial variation of biometeorological conditions in Lublin based on the example of specified weather scenarios.

  18. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  19. Weather Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  20. Oil Rig Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  1. Waste glass weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

    1994-01-01

    The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

  2. Cape Kennedy Weather Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  3. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  4. NOAA Weather Radio

    Science.gov (United States)

    del tiempo incluido. Si eres quieres ser avisado de las advertencias y relojes de día o de noche, un Weather Radio relojes son independientes o basadas en el Condado (parroquia basados en Luisiana), aunque

  5. Space Weather Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  6. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  7. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  8. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  9. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  10. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  11. Surface Weather Observations Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  12. Software reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bendell, A

    1986-01-01

    Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

  13. A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

  14. Space Weather Outreach: Connection to STEM Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dusenbery, P. B.

    2008-12-01

    Many scientists are studying the Sun-Earth system and attempting to provide timely, accurate, and reliable space environment observations and forecasts. Research programs and missions serve as an ideal focal point for creating educational content, making this an ideal time to inform the public about the importance and value of space weather research. In order to take advantage of this opportunity, the Space Science Institute (SSI) is developing a comprehensive Space Weather Outreach program to reach students, educators, and other members of the public, and share with them the exciting discoveries from this important scientific discipline. The Space Weather Outreach program has the following five components: (1) the Space Weather Center Website that includes online educational games; (2) Small Exhibits for Libraries, Shopping Malls, and Science Centers; (3) After-School Programs; (4) Professional Development Workshops for Educators, and (5) an innovative Evaluation and Education Research project. Its overarching goal is to inspire, engage, and educate a broad spectrum of the public and make strategic and innovative connections between informal and K-12 education communities. An important factor in the success of this program will be its alignment with STEM standards especially those related to science and mathematics. This presentation will describe the Space Weather Outreach program and how standards are being used in the development of each of its components.

  15. Past and Present Weathering Recorded in Cretaceous Shale Samples from Colombia - Implications for Paleoenvironmental Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, C.; März, C.; Wagner, T.

    2016-12-01

    It is well known that for geochemical studies on ancient rocks, outcrop samples can be compromised by present-day weathering. This raises the fundamental question, if only outcrop samples are available, how reliable can paleoenvironmental reconstructions be? To answer this question, shale samples have been gathered from Cretaceous outcrops of the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia, and analysed by XRF and Fe speciation in order to investigate paleo-redox conditions in this margin basin of the Proto-Atlantic. The samples are consistently depleted (relative to average shale) in redox-related trace metals and in total Fe indicating oxic conditions, whereas Fe speciation (highly reactive over total Fe) indicates anoxic conditions. We ask if this depletion in trace metals and total Fe is due to a lack of primary supply from the depositional environment, or if is it caused by modern oxidative outcrop weathering in this tropical mountainous setting? Our results from artificial weathering experiments confirm that certain trace metals U, Zn and Mo are easily leached from the samples, whereas Fe is quantitatively retained in the samples due to conversion of pyrite and siderite to Fe oxides. Pristine samples from wells in the adjacent Middle Magdalena Valley Basin (MMV) also exhibit total Fe depletion, but are up to 2000-fold enriched in Mo. This combined evidence indicates that the depletion of trace metals may be due to contemporary weathering, but there has to be a paleoenvironmental reason behind the low total Fe signature. The Guiana Shield was the probable source of sediment to the Cretaceous basin. The Chemical Index of Alteration suggest the source of detrital material was initially highly weathered (average 83, maximum 95). Ancient laterites have been identified on the Guiana Shield, and retention of Fe in these laterites may explain the low Fe input into the Eastern Cordillera basin. These results confirm that trace metal-based redox proxies may be seriously affected by

  16. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1987-01-01

    Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

  17. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  18. Casebook on application for weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-11-01

    This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

  19. Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

    2006-12-01

    The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

  20. Development of Forest Drought Index and Forest Water Use Prediction in Gyeonggi Province, Korea Using High-Resolution Weather Research and Forecast Data and Localized JULES Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Park, J.; Cho, S.; Lee, S. J.; Kim, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    Forest determines the amount of water available to low land ecosystems, which use the rest of water after evapotranspiration by forests. Substantial increase of drought, especially for seasonal drought, has occurred in Korea due to climate change, recently. To cope with this increasing crisis, it is necessary to predict the water use of forest. In our study, forest water use in the Gyeonggi Province in Korea was estimated using high-resolution (spatial and temporal) meteorological forecast data and localized Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) which is one of the widely used land surface models. The modeled estimation was used for developing forest drought index. The localization of the model was conducted by 1) refining the existing two tree plant functional types (coniferous and deciduous trees) into five (Quercus spp., other deciduous tree spp., Pinus spp., Larix spp., and other coniferous spp.), 2) correcting moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) leaf area index (LAI) through data assimilation with in situ measured LAI, and 3) optimizing the unmeasured plant physiological parameters (e.g. leaf nitrogen contents, nitrogen distribution within canopy, light use efficiency) based on sensitivity analysis of model output values. The high-resolution (hourly and 810 × 810 m) National Center for AgroMeteorology-Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (NCAM-LAMP) data were employed as meteorological input data in JULES. The plant functional types and soil texture of each grid cell in the same resolution with that of NCAM-LAMP was also used. The performance of the localized model in estimating forest water use was verified by comparison with the multi-year sapflow measurements and Eddy covariance data of Taehwa Mountain site. Our result can be used as referential information to estimate the forest water use change by the climate change. Moreover, the drought index can be used to foresee the drought condition and prepare to it.

  1. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Bojan S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  2. Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Louie Fresco Zamora

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values.

  3. Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamora, Jane Louie Fresco; Kashihara, Shigeru; Yamaguchi, Suguru

    2015-01-01

    Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values.

  4. Weather In Some Islands

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王良华

    2007-01-01

    There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

  5. Geostationary Communications Satellites as Sensors for the Space Weather Environment: Telemetry Event Identification Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlton, A.; Cahoy, K.

    2015-12-01

    Reliability of geostationary communication satellites (GEO ComSats) is critical to many industries worldwide. The space radiation environment poses a significant threat and manufacturers and operators expend considerable effort to maintain reliability for users. Knowledge of the space radiation environment at the orbital location of a satellite is of critical importance for diagnosing and resolving issues resulting from space weather, for optimizing cost and reliability, and for space situational awareness. For decades, operators and manufacturers have collected large amounts of telemetry from geostationary (GEO) communications satellites to monitor system health and performance, yet this data is rarely mined for scientific purposes. The goal of this work is to acquire and analyze archived data from commercial operators using new algorithms that can detect when a space weather (or non-space weather) event of interest has occurred or is in progress. We have developed algorithms, collectively called SEER (System Event Evaluation Routine), to statistically analyze power amplifier current and temperature telemetry by identifying deviations from nominal operations or other events and trends of interest. This paper focuses on our work in progress, which currently includes methods for detection of jumps ("spikes", outliers) and step changes (changes in the local mean) in the telemetry. We then examine available space weather data from the NOAA GOES and the NOAA-computed Kp index and sunspot numbers to see what role, if any, it might have played. By combining the results of the algorithm for many components, the spacecraft can be used as a "sensor" for the space radiation environment. Similar events occurring at one time across many component telemetry streams may be indicative of a space radiation event or system-wide health and safety concern. Using SEER on representative datasets of telemetry from Inmarsat and Intelsat, we find events that occur across all or many of

  6. Reliability of nuclear power plants and equipment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    The standard sets the general principles, a list of reliability indexes and demands on their selection. Reliability indexes of nuclear power plants include the simple indexes of fail-safe operation, life and maintainability, and of storage capability. All terms and notions are explained and methods of evaluating the indexes briefly listed - statistical, and calculation experimental. The dates when the standard comes in force in the individual CMEA countries are given. (M.D.)

  7. WEATHERING PROCESS IN EOCENE FLYSCH IN REGION OF SPLIT (CROATIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Miščević

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available The Eocene flysh in the region of Split (Dalmatia, Croatia is char¬acterized by the presence of layers with different characteristics. It mainly includes thin-layered marls, clayey marls, calcareous marls, clastic lay¬ered limestones, calcarenites and breccias. Those parts that can be de¬scribed as the soft rocks or hard clays by the mechanical means, exposed to weathering reduce the durability within "an engineering time scale". The paper deals with the factors that influence the weathering process. The analyzed weathering is a combination of processes acting simulta¬neously. Most of these processes depend on the change of the water con¬tent, thus the weathering process mainly develops when a material is subjected to the wetting-drying process, On the base of these results form of degradation process is modeled. The weathering process can be main¬ly described as physical weathering combined with chemical weathering on the free surfaces and on the cracks walls. Erosion as a result of weath¬ering, is the dominant geomorphic process on analyzed flysch terrain. According to the analysis, as the most appropriate due to the characteris¬tics the tests are chosen as index properties. Some of these tests are modified in order to adapt them to the determined characteristics of ma¬terials from flysch layers. The correlations between the measured values are used as the basis for the classification proposal of the analyzed mate¬rial, according to its resistance to weathering processes. Roughly, three main groups of samples are recognizable: the first one with carbonate content more then 90% is not weathered at the engineers time scale; the second group with carbonate content from 75% to 90% include samples susceptible to weathering in engineers time scale; the third group with carbonate content less then 75% include samples in which the weather¬ing occurs immediately after the exposition to the weathering factors.

  8. Validade e confiabilidade do índice de capacidade para o trabalho (ICT em trabalhadores de enfermagem Validity and reliability of the work ability index (WAI in nurses' work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sérgio Henrique Almeida da Silva Junior

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo estima a validade e a confiabilidade do índice de capacidade para o trabalho (ICT em 1.436 trabalhadores de enfermagem de três hospitais públicos do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Foi estimada a validade dimensional, por meio de análise fatorial exploratória e também a validade correlacional, relacionando o ICT com construtos teoricamente relevantes. A confiabilidade foi avaliada pela análise de consistência interna utilizando o coeficiente alfa de Cronbach e ômega de McDonald. A análise fatorial indicou uma estrutura bidimensional, explicando 52,8% da variância acumulada para os componentes principais e 42% para os eixos principais. As hipóteses teóricas da validade de construto foram confirmadas com correlação direta e significativa do ICT com os escores de recompensa, controle e autoavaliação do estado de saúde; correlação inversa e significativa com a escala de necessidade de recuperação após o trabalho, distúrbios psíquicos menores, esforço, excesso de comprometimento e demanda. Concluiu-se que o ICT apresentou propriedades psicométricas adequadas.This article assesses the validity and reliability of the work ability index (WAI for 1,436 nurses in three public hospitals in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The study estimated the dimensional validity by means of exploratory factor analysis, as well as correlational validity, relating WAI to theoretically relevant constructs. Reliability was evaluated by internal consistency analysis, using Cronbach's alpha and McDonald's omega. Factor analysis indicated a two-dimensional structure explaining 52.8% of the accumulated variance for the principal components and 42% for the principal axes. The theoretical hypotheses for the construct's validity were confirmed, with direct and significant correlation between the WAI and the reward, control, and self-rated health scores; an inverse and significant correlation with the scale on need for recovery after work, minor psychological

  9. Climate index for Switzerland - Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Switzerland. (J.S.)

  10. Climate index for Belgium - Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Belgium. (J.S.)

  11. Climate index for Portugal - Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Portugal. (J.S.)

  12. Climate index for France - Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of France. (J.S.)

  13. Climate index for Spain - Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of average, minimum and maximum weather indexes with the winter and summer regression equations for the different economical regions of Spain. (J.S.)

  14. Reliability Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Lazzaroni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

  15. Reliability training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

    1992-01-01

    Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

  16. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  17. Climate, weather, and hops

    Science.gov (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  18. Weather and Flight Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

  19. Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  20. Index Bioclimatic "Wind-Chill"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodoreanu Elena

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an important bioclimatic index which shows the influence of wind on the human body thermoregulation. When the air temperature is high, the wind increases thermal comfort. But more important for the body is the wind when the air temperature is low. When the air temperature is lower and wind speed higher, the human body is threatening to freeze faster. Cold wind index is used in Canada, USA, Russia (temperature "equivalent" to the facial skin etc., in the weather forecast every day in the cold season. The index can be used and for bioclimatic regionalization, in the form of skin temperature index.

  1. Introducing the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.

    2015-12-01

    The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily FWI System calculations beginning in 1980 called the Global Fire WEather Database (GFWED) gridded to a spatial resolution of 0.5° latitude by 2/3° longitude. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research (MERRA), and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code calculations from the gridded datasets were compared to calculations from individual weather station data for a representative set of 48 stations in North, Central and South America, Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia and Australia. Agreement between gridded calculations and the station-based calculations tended to be most different at low latitudes for strictly MERRA-based calculations. Strong biases could be seen in either direction: MERRA DC over the Mato Grosso in Brazil reached unrealistically high values exceeding DC=1500 during the dry season but was too low over Southeast Asia during the dry season. These biases are consistent with those previously-identified in MERRA's precipitation and reinforce the need to consider alternative sources of precipitation data. GFWED is being used by researchers around the world for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity at large scales, in identifying large-scale atmosphere-ocean controls on fire weather, and calibration of FWI-based fire prediction models. These applications will be discussed. More information on GFWED can be found at http://data.giss.nasa.gov/impacts/gfwed/

  2. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  3. Revisiting source identification, weathering models, and phase discrimination for Exxon Valdez oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driskell, W.B.; Payne, J.R.; Shigenaka, G.

    2005-01-01

    A large chemistry data set for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and saturated hydrocarbon (SHC) contamination in sediment, water and tissue samples has emerged in the aftermath of the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska. When the oil was fresh, source identification was a primary objective and fairly reliable. However, source identification became problematic as the oil weathered and its signatures changed. In response to concerns regarding when the impacted area will be clean again, this study focused on developing appropriate tools to confirm hydrocarbon source identifications and assess weathering in various matrices. Previous efforts that focused only on the whole or particulate-phase oil are not adequate to track dissolved-phase signal with low total PAH values. For that reason, a particulate signature index (PSI) and dissolved signature index (DSI) screening tool was developed in this study to discriminate between these 2 phases. The screening tool was used to measure the dissolved or water-soluble fraction of crude oil which occurs at much lower levels than the particulate phase, but which is more widely circulated and equally as important as the particulate oil phase. The discrimination methods can also identify normally-discarded, low total PAH samples which can increase the amount of usable data needed to model other effects of oil spills. 37 refs., 3 tabs., 10 figs

  4. Extensão bivariada do índice de confiabilidade univariado para avaliação da estabilidade fenotípica Bivariate extension of univariate reliability index for evaluating phenotypic stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzankelly Cunha Arruda de Abreu

    2004-10-01

    bivariate reliability index (Ii of Annicchiarico was wasked out and a second risk index was proposed based on the bivariate probabilities (Prb i; the two indexes proposed has shown good agreement to the results in an example with melon genotypes.

  5. Systems reliability/structural reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)

  6. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  7. North America Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  8. Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas

    1990-01-01

    Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

  9. A Dynamic Programming Approach for Pricing Weather Derivatives under Issuer Default Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Karl Härdle

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Weather derivatives are contingent claims with payoff based on a pre-specified weather index. Firms exposed to weather risk can transfer it to financial markets via weather derivatives. We develop a utility-based model for pricing baskets of weather derivatives under default risk on the issuer side in over-the-counter markets. In our model, agents maximise the expected utility of their terminal wealth, while they dynamically rebalance their weather portfolios over a finite investment horizon. Using dynamic programming approach, we obtain semi-closed forms for the equilibrium prices of weather derivatives and for the optimal strategies of the agents. We give an example on how to price rainfall derivatives on selected stations in China in the universe of a financial investor and a weather exposed crop insurer.

  10. AUTHOR INDEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    SMART-1 after lunar capture: First results and perspectives. 687 ... Depositional setting and vertebrate biostratigraphy ... River water quality in weathered limestone: A case study in ... Ocean Basin: Paleoceanography during the past. ~ 1 Ma.

  11. Central American Flying Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    CEILING; VISIBILITY; WIND, PRECIPITATIDNc’--." HAZE, SMOKE, TEMPORALE ; MOUNTAIN WAVE; MILITARY METEOROLOGY. 4k- / ’A. bstract; Asummary of~ing weather...1 The " Temporale " ....................................1 Mountain Waves ......................I...............1 Severe Thunderstorms...charts. The for any part of Central America lies in having: Tactical Pilota.e Chart series , produced by the Df -.nse Mapping Agency, is * A good, basic

  12. World Weather Extremes. Revision,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Ext r-,ncs, Weekl Weather and Crop Bull, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 6-8, 27 Feb 56. 21A. ntoli, La Piu Alta Temperatura del Mondo," [The HiLhest Temperi... Temperatura in Libia", Boll Soc Geogr Ita’iana, ser. 8, Vol. 7, pp. 59-71, 1954. 23J. Gentilli, "Libyan Climate", Geograph Rev, V0 l. 45, No. 2, p. 269 S" Apr

  13. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubb, H.

    1992-01-01

    This book resulted from the activity of Task Force 4.2 - 'Human Reliability'. This group was established on February 27th, 1986, at the plenary meeting of the Technical Reliability Committee of VDI, within the framework of the joint committee of VDI on industrial systems technology - GIS. It is composed of representatives of industry, representatives of research institutes, of technical control boards and universities, whose job it is to study how man fits into the technical side of the world of work and to optimize this interaction. In a total of 17 sessions, information from the part of ergonomy dealing with human reliability in using technical systems at work was exchanged, and different methods for its evaluation were examined and analyzed. The outcome of this work was systematized and compiled in this book. (orig.) [de

  14. Microelectronics Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-17

    inverters  connected in a chain. ................................................. 5  Figure 3  Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental  reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the  lifetime  reliability of advanced devices,  circuits and...or  FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device  lifetime  was found and thus the  reliability  that  can  be  conveniently

  15. Multi-station basis for Polar Cap (PC) indices: ensuring credibility and operational reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauning, Peter

    2018-02-01

    The Polar Cap (PC) indices, PCN (North) and PCS (South) are based on polar geomagnetic observations from Qaanaaq (Thule) and Vostok, respectively, processed to measure the transpolar plasma convection that may seriously affect space weather conditions. To establish reliable space weather forecasts based on PC indices, and also to ensure credibility of their use for scientific analyses of solar wind-magnetosphere interactions, additional sources of data for the PC indices are investigated. In the search for alternative index sources, objective quality criteria are established here to be used for the selection among potential candidates. These criteria are applied to existing PC index series to establish a quality scale. In the Canadian region, the data from Resolute Bay magnetometer are shown to provide alternative PCN indices of adequate quality. In Antarctica, the data from Concordia Dome-C observatory are shown to provide basis for alternative PCS indices. In examples to document the usefulness of these alternative index sources it is shown that PCN indices in a real-time version based on magnetometer data from Resolute Bay could have given 6 h of early warning, of which the last 2 h were "red alert", up to the onset of the strong substorm event on 13 March 1989 that caused power outage in Quebec. The alternative PCS indices based on data from Dome-C have helped to disclose that presently available Vostok-based PCS index values are corrupted throughout most of 2011.

  16. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  17. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

  18. Space Weather Research in Armenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilingarian, A. A.

    DVIN for ASEC (Data Visualization interactive Network for Aragats Space Environmental Center) is product for accessing and analysis the on-line data from Solar Monitors located at high altitude research station on Mt. Aragats in Armenia. Data from ASEC monitors is used worldwide for scientific purposes and for monitoring of severe solar storms in progress. Alert service, based on the automatic analysis of variations of the different species of cosmic ray particles is available for subscribers. DVIN advantages: DVIN is strategically important as a scientific application to help develop space science and to foster global collaboration in forecasting potential hazards of solar storms. It precisely fits with the goals of the new evolving information society to provide long-term monitoring and collection of high quality scientific data, and enables adequate dialogue between scientists, decision makers, and civil society. The system is highly interactive and exceptional information is easily accessible online. Data can be monitored and analyzed for desired time spans in a fast and reliable manner. The ASEC activity is an example of a balance between the scientific independence of fundamental research and the needs of civil society. DVIN is also an example of how scientific institutions can apply the newest powerful methods of information technologies, such as multivariate data analysis, to their data and also how information technologies can provide convenient and reliable access to this data and to new knowledge for the world-wide scientific community. DVIN provides very wide possibilities for sharing data and sending warnings and alerts to scientists and other entities world-wide, which have fundamental and practical interest in knowing the space weather conditions.

  19. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  20. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  1. Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schwenn Rainer

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

  2. Space Weather: The Solar Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenn, Rainer

    2006-08-01

    The term space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and that can affect human life and health. Our modern hi-tech society has become increasingly vulnerable to disturbances from outside the Earth system, in particular to those initiated by explosive events on the Sun: Flares release flashes of radiation that can heat up the terrestrial atmosphere such that satellites are slowed down and drop into lower orbits, solar energetic particles accelerated to near-relativistic energies may endanger astronauts traveling through interplanetary space, and coronal mass ejections are gigantic clouds of ionized gas ejected into interplanetary space that after a few hours or days may hit the Earth and cause geomagnetic storms. In this review, I describe the several chains of actions originating in our parent star, the Sun, that affect Earth, with particular attention to the solar phenomena and the subsequent effects in interplanetary space.

  3. The RMI Space Weather and Navigation Systems (SWANS) Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnant, Rene; Lejeune, Sandrine; Wautelet, Gilles; Spits, Justine; Stegen, Koen; Stankov, Stan

    The SWANS (Space Weather and Navigation Systems) research and development project (http://swans.meteo.be) is an initiative of the Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI) under the auspices of the Belgian Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence (STCE). The RMI SWANS objectives are: research on space weather and its effects on GNSS applications; permanent mon-itoring of the local/regional geomagnetic and ionospheric activity; and development/operation of relevant nowcast, forecast, and alert services to help professional GNSS/GALILEO users in mitigating space weather effects. Several SWANS developments have already been implemented and available for use. The K-LOGIC (Local Operational Geomagnetic Index K Calculation) system is a nowcast system based on a fully automated computer procedure for real-time digital magnetogram data acquisition, data screening, and calculating the local geomagnetic K index. Simultaneously, the planetary Kp index is estimated from solar wind measurements, thus adding to the service reliability and providing forecast capabilities as well. A novel hybrid empirical model, based on these ground-and space-based observations, has been implemented for nowcasting and forecasting the geomagnetic index, issuing also alerts whenever storm-level activity is indicated. A very important feature of the nowcast/forecast system is the strict control on the data input and processing, allowing for an immediate assessment of the output quality. The purpose of the LIEDR (Local Ionospheric Electron Density Reconstruction) system is to acquire and process data from simultaneous ground-based GNSS TEC and digital ionosonde measurements, and subsequently to deduce the vertical electron density distribution. A key module is the real-time estimation of the ionospheric slab thickness, offering additional infor-mation on the local ionospheric dynamics. The RTK (Real Time Kinematic) status mapping provides a quick look at the small-scale ionospheric effects on the RTK

  4. Space weather monitoring by groundbased means

    CERN Document Server

    Troshichev, Oleg

    2012-01-01

    This book demonstrates that the method, based on the ground polar cap magnetic observations is a reliable diagnosis of the solar wind energy coming into the magnetosphere Method for the uninterruptive monitoring of the magnetosphere state (i.e. space weather). It shows that the solar wind energy pumping power, can be described by the PC growth rate, thus, the magnetospheric substorms features are predetermined by the PC dynamics. Furthermore, it goes on to show that the beginning and ending of magnetic storms is predictable. The magnetic storm start only if the solar energy input into the magn

  5. Regional indexes for France. Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the calculation methodology of regional weather indexes for France. Each regional index covers an homogenous area in terms of temperature represented by the biggest city. Five reference cities are used to represent the 22 economical regions of France (Paris Orly, Lyon, Marignane, Bordeaux and Strasbourg). (J.S.)

  6. Weather Observation Systems and Efficiency of Fighting Forest Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarov, N.; Moltchanova, E.; Obersteiner, M.

    2007-12-01

    Weather observation is an essential component of modern forest fire management systems. Satellite and in-situ based weather observation systems might help to reduce forest loss, human casualties and destruction of economic capital. In this paper, we develop and apply a methodology to assess the benefits of various weather observation systems on reductions of burned area due to early fire detection. In particular, we consider a model where the air patrolling schedule is determined by a fire hazard index. The index is computed from gridded daily weather data for the area covering parts Spain and Portugal. We conduct a number of simulation experiments. First, the resolution of the original data set is artificially reduced. The reduction of the total forest burned area associated with air patrolling based on a finer weather grid indicates the benefit of using higher spatially resolved weather observations. Second, we consider a stochastic model to simulate forest fires and explore the sensitivity of the model with respect to the quality of input data. The analysis of combination of satellite and ground monitoring reveals potential cost saving due to a "system of systems effect" and substantial reduction in burned area. Finally, we estimate the marginal improvement schedule for loss of life and economic capital as a function of the improved fire observing system.

  7. The Weather in Richmond

    OpenAIRE

    Harless, William Edwin

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  8. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

    2015-01-01

    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  9. Weather Balloon Ascent Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Mark

    2016-05-01

    The physics of a weather balloon is analyzed. The surprising aspect of the motion of these balloons is that they ascend to great altitudes (typically 35 km) at a more or less constant rate. Such behavior is not surprising near the ground—say for a helium-filled party balloon rising from street level to the top of the Empire State building—but it is unexpected for a balloon that rises to altitudes where the air is rarefied. We show from elementary physical laws why the ascent rate is approximately constant.

  10. Redefining reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, S.L.

    1995-01-01

    Want to buy some reliability? The question would have been unthinkable in some markets served by the natural gas business even a few years ago, but in the new gas marketplace, industrial, commercial and even some residential customers have the opportunity to choose from among an array of options about the kind of natural gas service they need--and are willing to pay for. The complexities of this brave new world of restructuring and competition have sent the industry scrambling to find ways to educate and inform its customers about the increased responsibility they will have in determining the level of gas reliability they choose. This article discusses the new options and the new responsibilities of customers, the needed for continuous education, and MidAmerican Energy Company's experiment in direct marketing of natural gas

  11. Multi-year and reference year weather data for building energy labelling in north Italy climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pernigotto, G.; Prada, A.; Costola, D.; Gasparella, A.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2014-01-01

    Representative weather information is essential for a reliable building energy performance evaluation. Even if detailed energy analyses can be carried out considering the multi-year weather data, generally a single reference year is adopted. Thus, this artificial year has to correctly approximate

  12. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  13. Vodcasting Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.

    2009-01-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

  14. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  15. Weathering of rock 'Ginger'

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  16. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  17. Application of the Haines Index in the fire warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalin, Lovro; Marija, Mokoric; Tomislav, Kozaric

    2016-04-01

    Croatia, as all Mediterranean countries, is strongly affected by large wildfires, particularly in the coastal region. In the last two decades the number and intensity of fires has been significantly increased, which is unanimously associated with climate change, e.g. global warming. More extreme fires are observed, and the fire-fighting season has been expanded to June and September. The meteorological support for fire protection and planning is therefore even more important. At the Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia a comprehensive monitoring and warning system has been established. It includes standard components, such as short term forecast of Fire Weather Index (FWI), but long range forecast as well. However, due to more frequent hot and dry seasons, FWI index often does not provide additional information of extremely high fire danger, since it regularly takes the highest values for long periods. Therefore the additional tools have been investigated. One of widely used meteorological products is the Haines index (HI). It provides information of potential fire growth, taking into account only the vertical instability of the atmosphere, and not the state of the fuel. Several analyses and studies carried out at the Service confirmed the correlation of high HI values with large and extreme fires. The Haines index forecast has been used at the Service for several years, employing European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) global prediction model, as well as the limited-area Aladin model. The verification results show that these forecast are reliable, when compared to radiosonde measurements. All these results provided the introduction of the additional fire warnings, that are issued by the Service's Forecast Department.

  18. CAUSALITY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIAN STOCK EQUITY RETURNS

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana Vlady; Ekrem Tufan; Bahattin Hamarat

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates causality of weather and its impact on the The S&P/ASX All Australian 200 Index has been selected as a proxy for the Australian capital market. The index consists exclusively of Australian domiciled companies. Following previous research in behaviour finance in the area of environmental psychology, the data set covers temperature, quality temperature, wet bulb temperature, quality wet bulb temperature, humidity, pressure and vapour pressure variables. The data set is a...

  19. Impact of Weather Index Insurance on Household Demand for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    And Ethiopia is one of the few countries in the world that has been ravaged by ... 2014 on their document regarding African Economic Outlook, in 2012/13 fiscal ... induces farmers to increase fertilizer demand which is profitable, but risky. ... that insurance purchaser's fertilizer demand is more than that of non-purchasers.

  20. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  1. SUBJECT INDEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Great Barrier Reef. Effect of intraband variability on stable isotope and density time series obtained from banded corals. 145. Groundwater. Factors controlling the ... Monsoon depression. Synoptic weather conditions during the pilot study of. Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). 211. Nd and Sr isotopes.

  2. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-11-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  3. The sun and space weather Second Edition

    CERN Document Server

    Hanslmeier, Arnold

    2007-01-01

    This second edition is a great enhancement of literature which will help the reader get deeper into the specific topics. There are new sections included such as space weather data sources and examples, new satellite missions, and the latest results. At the end a comprehensive index is given which will allow the reader to quickly find his topics of interest. The Sun and Space weather are two rapidly evolving topics. The importance of the Sun for the Earth, life on Earth, climate and weather processes was recognized long ago by the ancients. Now, for the first time there is a continuous surveillance of solar activity at nearly all wavelengths. These data can be used to improve our understanding of the complex Sun-Earth interaction. The first chapters of the book deal with the Sun as a star and its activity phenomena as well as its activity cycle in order to understand the complex physics of the Sun-Earth system. The reader will see that there are many phenomena but still no definite explanations and models exis...

  4. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

    1964-01-01

    Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

  5. Revisiting the effects of hydrodynamic sorting and sedimentary recycling on chemical weathering indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yulong; Yang, Shouye; Su, Ni; Li, Chao; Yin, Ping; Wang, Zhongbo

    2018-04-01

    Although the proxies based on elemental geochemistry of siliciclastic sediments have been well developed to indicate the intensity of chemical weathering in various catchments, their geological indications and limitations, and especially how the differentiation of minerals and sediment grain size influences the applications of these proxies needs more clarification. This paper investigates the interactive effects of weathering, hydraulic sorting and sedimentary recycling on river sediment chemistry, and further validates the application of various weathering indices by measuring mineralogical and geochemical compositions of bank sediments and suspended particulate matters (SPMs) from five rivers in East China bearing various sizes, geologic settings and climatic regimes. For a specific river, the silicate weathering intensity registered in the fine SPMs is systematically stronger than that in the coarse-grained bank sediments. Most of the weathering indices not only reflect the integrated weathering history of various catchments but also depend on hydraulic sorting effect during sediment transport and depositional processes. The correlation between CIA (chemical index of alteration) and WIP (weathering index of Parker) offers an approach to predict the weathering trends of the fine SPMs, coarse bank sediments and recycled sediments under the influence of quartz dilution. To minimize the effects of hydrodynamic sorting and sedimentary recycling, we suggest that the fine sediments (e.g. SPMs and <2 μm fraction of bank sediments) in rivers can better reflect the average of present-day weathering crust in catchments and the weathered terrigenous materials into marginal seas and oceans.

  6. Terminal weather information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Alfred T.

    1990-01-01

    Since the mid-1960's, microburst/windshear events have caused at least 30 aircraft accidents and incidents and have killed more than 600 people in the United States alone. This study evaluated alternative means of alerting an airline crew to the presence of microburst/windshear events in the terminal area. Of particular interest was the relative effectiveness of conventional and data link ground-to-air transmissions of ground-based radar and low-level windshear sensing information on microburst/windshear avoidance. The Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator located at Ames Research Center was employed in a line oriented simulation of a scheduled round-trip airline flight from Salt Lake City to Denver Stapleton Airport. Actual weather en route and in the terminal area was simulated using recorded data. The microburst/windshear incident of July 11, 1988 was re-created for the Denver area operations. Six experienced airline crews currently flying scheduled routes were employed as test subjects for each of three groups: (1) A baseline group which received alerts via conventional air traffic control (ATC) tower transmissions; (2) An experimental group which received alerts/events displayed visually and aurally in the cockpit six miles (approx. 2 min.) from the microburst event; and (3) An additional experimental group received displayed alerts/events 23 linear miles (approx. 7 min.) from the microburst event. Analyses of crew communications and decision times showed a marked improvement in both situation awareness and decision-making with visually displayed ground-based radar information. Substantial reductions in the variability of decision times among crews in the visual display groups were also found. These findings suggest that crew performance will be enhanced and individual differences among crews due to differences in training and prior experience are significantly reduced by providing real-time, graphic display of terminal weather hazards.

  7. Mountain Weather and Climate, Third Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastenrath, Stefan

    2009-05-01

    For colleagues with diverse interests in the atmosphere, glaciers, radiation, landforms, water resources, vegetation, human implications, and more, Mountain Weather and Climate can be a valuable source of guidance and literature references. The book is organized into seven chapters: 1, Mountains and their climatological study; 2,Geographical controls of mountain meteorological elements; 3, Circulation systems related to orography; 4, Climatic characteristics of mountains; 5, Regional case studies; 6, Mountain bioclimatology; and 7, Changes in mountain climates. These chapters are supported by l78 diagrams and photographs, 47 tables, and some 2000 literature references. The volume has an appendix of units and energy conversion factors and a subject index, but it lacks an author index.

  8. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  9. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  10. Weatherization Assistance Program Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2018-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy e ciency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety. The Program supports 8,500 jobs and provides weatherization services to approximately 35,000 homes every year using DOE funds.

  11. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  12. RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu V.S.

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Power distribution systems are basic parts of power systems and reliability of these systems at present is a key issue for power engineering development and requires special attention. Operation of distribution systems is accompanied by a number of factors that produce random data a large number of unplanned interruptions. Research has shown that the predominant factors that have a significant influence on the reliability of distribution systems are: weather conditions (39.7%, defects in equipment(25% and unknown random factors (20.1%. In the article is studied the influence of random behavior and are presented estimations of reliability of predominantly rural electrical distribution systems.

  13. An Introduction To Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyoung Su

    1993-08-01

    This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

  14. Artificial weathering of granite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Hermo, B.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes a series of artificial weathering tests run on granite designed to: simulate the action of weathering agents on buildings and identify the underlying mechanisms, determine the salt resistance of different types of rock; evaluate consolidation and water-repellent treatment durability; and confirm hypotheses about the origin of salts such as gypsum that are often found in granite buildings. Salt crystallization tests were also conducted, using sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, calcium sulphate and seawater solutions. One of these tests was conducted in a chamber specifically designed to simulate salt spray weathering and another in an SO2 chamber to ascertain whether granite is subject to sulphation. The test results are analyzed and discussed, along with the shortcomings of each type of trial as a method for simulating the decay observed in monuments. The effect of factors such as wet-dry conditions, type of saline solution and the position of the planes of weakness on the type of decay is also addressed.En este trabajo se hace una síntesis de varios ensayos de alteración artificial realizados con rocas graníticas. Estos ensayos tenían distintos objetivos: reproducir las formas de alteración encontradas en los edificios para llegar a conocer los mecanismos que las generan, determinar la resistencia de las diferentes rocas a la acción de las sales, evaluar la durabilidad de tratamientos de consolidación e hidrofugación y constatar hipótesis acerca del origen de algunas sales, como el yeso, que aparecen frecuentemente en edificios graníticos. En los ensayos de cristalización de sales se utilizaron disoluciones de cloruro de sodio, sulfato de sodio, sulfato de calcio y agua de mar. Uno de estos ensayos se llevó a cabo en una cámara especialmente diseñada para reproducir la alteración por aerosol marino y otro se realizó en una cámara de SO2, con el objeto de comprobar si en rocas graníticas se puede producir

  15. A framework for standardized calculation of weather indices in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möller, Markus; Doms, Juliane; Gerstmann, Henning; Feike, Til

    2018-05-01

    Climate change has been recognized as a main driver in the increasing occurrence of extreme weather. Weather indices (WIs) are used to assess extreme weather conditions regarding its impact on crop yields. Designing WIs is challenging, since complex and dynamic crop-climate relationships have to be considered. As a consequence, geodata for WI calculations have to represent both the spatio-temporal dynamic of crop development and corresponding weather conditions. In this study, we introduce a WI design framework for Germany, which is based on public and open raster data of long-term spatio-temporal availability. The operational process chain enables the dynamic and automatic definition of relevant phenological phases for the main cultivated crops in Germany. Within the temporal bounds, WIs can be calculated for any year and test site in Germany in a reproducible and transparent manner. The workflow is demonstrated on the example of a simple cumulative rainfall index for the phenological phase shooting of winter wheat using 16 test sites and the period between 1994 and 2014. Compared to station-based approaches, the major advantage of our approach is the possibility to design spatial WIs based on raster data characterized by accuracy metrics. Raster data and WIs, which fulfill data quality standards, can contribute to an increased acceptance and farmers' trust in WI products for crop yield modeling or weather index-based insurances (WIIs).

  16. Walkability Index

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Walkability Index dataset characterizes every Census 2010 block group in the U.S. based on its relative walkability. Walkability depends upon characteristics of the built environment that influence the likelihood of walking being used as a mode of travel. The Walkability Index is based on the EPA's previous data product, the Smart Location Database (SLD). Block group data from the SLD was the only input into the Walkability Index, and consisted of four variables from the SLD weighted in a formula to create the new Walkability Index. This dataset shares the SLD's block group boundary definitions from Census 2010. The methodology describing the process of creating the Walkability Index can be found in the documents located at ftp://newftp.epa.gov/EPADataCommons/OP/WalkabilityIndex.zip. You can also learn more about the Smart Location Database at https://edg.epa.gov/data/Public/OP/Smart_Location_DB_v02b.zip.

  17. APPLICATION OF TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY FOR PERFORMANCE ORIENTED OPERATIONAL PLANNING OF EXPRESSWAYS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehran, Babak; Nakamura, Hideki

    Evaluation of impacts of congestion improvement scheme s on travel time reliability is very significant for road authorities since travel time reliability repr esents operational performance of expressway segments. In this paper, a methodology is presented to estimate travel tim e reliability prior to implementation of congestion relief schemes based on travel time variation modeling as a function of demand, capacity, weather conditions and road accident s. For subject expressway segmen ts, traffic conditions are modeled over a whole year considering demand and capacity as random variables. Patterns of demand and capacity are generated for each five minute interval by appl ying Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and accidents are randomly generated based on a model that links acci dent rate to traffic conditions. A whole year analysis is performed by comparing de mand and available capacity for each scenario and queue length is estimated through shockwave analysis for each time in terval. Travel times are estimated from refined speed-flow relationships developed for intercity expressways and buffer time index is estimated consequently as a measure of travel time reliability. For validation, estimated reliability indices are compared with measured values from empirical data, and it is shown that the proposed method is suitable for operational evaluation and planning purposes.

  18. Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

  19. AP Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Planetary Amplitude index - Bartels 1951. The a-index ranges from 0 to 400 and represents a K-value converted to a linear scale in gammas (nanoTeslas)--a scale that...

  20. Chemical Weathering on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolotov, Mikhail

    2018-01-01

    Chemical and phase compositions of Venus's surface could reflect history of gas- and fluid-rock interactions, recent and past climate changes, and a loss of water from the Earth's sister planet. The concept of chemical weathering on Venus through gas-solid type reactions has been established in 1960s after the discovery of hot and dense CO2-rich atmosphere inferred from Earth-based and Mariner 2 radio emission data. Initial works suggested carbonation, hydration, and oxidation of exposed igneous rocks and a control (buffering) of atmospheric gases by solid-gas type chemical equilibria in the near-surface lithosphere. Calcite, quartz, wollastonite, amphiboles, and Fe oxides were considered likely secondary minerals. Since the late 1970s, measurements of trace gases in the sub-cloud atmosphere by Pioneer Venus and Venera entry probes and Earth-based infrared spectroscopy doubted the likelihood of hydration and carbonation. The H2O gas content appeared to be low to allow a stable existence of hydrated and a majority of OH-bearing minerals. The concentration of SO2 was too high to allow the stability of calcite and Ca-rich silicates with respect to sulfatization to CaSO4. In 1980s, the supposed ongoing consumption of atmospheric SO2 to sulfates gained support by the detection of an elevated bulk S content at Venera and Vega landing sites. The induced composition of the near-surface atmosphere implied oxidation of ferrous minerals to magnetite and hematite, consistent with the infrared reflectance of surface materials. The likelihood of sulfatization and oxidation has been illustrated in modeling experiments at simulated Venus conditions. Venus's surface morphology suggests that hot surface rocks and fines of mainly mafic composition contacted atmospheric gases during several hundreds of millions years since a global volcanic resurfacing. Some exposed materials could have reacted at higher and lower temperatures in a presence of diverse gases at different altitudinal

  1. Reliability data collection and use in risk and availability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombari, V.

    1989-01-01

    For EuReDatA it is a prevailing objective to initiate and support contact between experts, companies and institutions active in reliability engineering and research. Main topics of this 6th EuReDatA Conference are: Reliability data banks; incidents data banks; common cause data; source and propagation of uncertainties; computer aided risk analysis; reliability and incidents data acquisition and processing; human reliability; probabilistic safety and availability assessment; feedback of reliability into system design; data fusion; reliability modeling and techniques; structural and mechanical reliability; consequence modeling; software and electronic reliability; reliability tests. Some conference papers are separately indexed in the database. (HP)

  2. Design of all-weather celestial navigation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hongchi; Mu, Rongjun; Du, Huajun; Wu, Peng

    2018-03-01

    In order to realize autonomous navigation in the atmosphere, an all-weather celestial navigation system is designed. The research of celestial navigation system include discrimination method of comentropy and the adaptive navigation algorithm based on the P value. The discrimination method of comentropy is studied to realize the independent switching of two celestial navigation modes, starlight and radio. Finally, an adaptive filtering algorithm based on P value is proposed, which can greatly improve the disturbance rejection capability of the system. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the three axis attitude is better than 10″, and it can work all weather. In perturbation environment, the position accuracy of the integrated navigation system can be increased 20% comparing with the traditional method. It basically meets the requirements of the all-weather celestial navigation system, and it has the ability of stability, reliability, high accuracy and strong anti-interference.

  3. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Cardiovascular Conditions • Conditions Home • Arrhythmia and Atrial Fibrillation • Cardiac ...

  4. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    classification and use a range of different techniques and input data. The first method uses external information from multispectral satellite images to detect clutter. The information in the visual, near-infrared, and infrared parts of the spectrum can be used to distinguish between cloud and cloud-free areas......Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...

  5. KZHU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  6. Practical Weathering for Geology Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter

    1990-01-01

    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  7. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  8. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    around the sun. If weather is also governed by physical laws, why ... radiate according to Planck's law (higher the temperature of the black body ..... First law of thermodynamics. Relates ... (Third Edition) Charles E Merrill Publishing. Company.

  9. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  10. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  11. KZJX Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  12. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  13. KZFW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  14. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  15. KZME Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  16. KZDV Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  17. KZNY Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  18. KZDC Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  19. KZAU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  20. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  1. Reliability evaluation for offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Menghua; Blåbjerg, Frede; Chen, Zhe

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, a new reliability index - Loss Of Generation Ratio Probability (LOGRP) is proposed for evaluating the reliability of an electrical system for offshore wind farms, which emphasizes the design of wind farms rather than the adequacy for specific load demand. A practical method...... to calculate LOGRP of offshore wind farms is proposed and evaluated....

  2. AA Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The geomagnetic aa index provides a long climatology of global geomagnetic activity using 2 antipodal observatories at Greenwich and Melbourne- IAGA Bulletin 37,...

  3. Walkability Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Walkability Index dataset characterizes every Census 2010 block group in the U.S. based on its relative walkability. Walkability depends upon characteristics of...

  4. Diversity Index

    Data.gov (United States)

    Town of Chapel Hill, North Carolina — This map service summarizes racial and ethnic diversity in the United States in 2012.The Diversity Index shows the likelihood that two persons chosen at random from...

  5. AUTHOR INDEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    a granitic terrain of southern India using factor analysis and GIS. 1059. Radhakrishna M see Dev Sheena V .... Landslide susceptibility analysis using Probabilistic. Certainty Factor ... index via entropy-difference analysis. 687. Yidana Sandow ...

  6. Frontiers of reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

    1998-01-01

    This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

  7. Intelligent indexing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farkas, J.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the relevance of artificial intelligence to the automatic indexing of natural language text. We describe the use of domain-specific semantically-based thesauruses and address the problem of creating adequate knowledge bases for intelligent indexing systems. We also discuss the relevance of the Hilbert space ι 2 to the compact representation of documents and to the definition of the similarity of natural language texts. (author). 17 refs., 2 figs

  8. Intelligent indexing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farkas, J

    1993-12-31

    In this paper we discuss the relevance of artificial intelligence to the automatic indexing of natural language text. We describe the use of domain-specific semantically-based thesauruses and address the problem of creating adequate knowledge bases for intelligent indexing systems. We also discuss the relevance of the Hilbert space {iota}{sup 2} to the compact representation of documents and to the definition of the similarity of natural language texts. (author). 17 refs., 2 figs.

  9. Energy, variability and weather finance engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roussis, Dimitrios; Parara, Iliana; Gournari, Panagiota; Moustakis, Yiannis; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Karakatsanis, Georgios

    2017-04-01

    Most types of renewable energies are characterized by intense intermittency, causing significant instabilities to the grid; further requiring additional infrastructure (e.g. pumped-storage) for buffering hydrometeorological uncertainties, as well as complex operational rules for load balancing. In addition, most intermittent renewable units are subsidized, creating significant market inefficiencies. Weather derivatives comprise mature financial tools for integrating successfully the intermittent-load and base-load components into a unified hybrid energy system and establish their operation within a generalized uncertainty management market. With a growing global market share and 46% utilization of this financial tool by the energy industry and 12% by agriculture (that partially concerns biofuel resources), weather derivatives are projected to constitute a critical subsystem of many grids for buffering frequent hydrometeorological risks of low and medium impacts -which are not covered by standard insurance contracts that aim exclusively at extreme events and high financial damages. In this context, we study the attributes of hydrometeorological time series in a remote and small island in Greece, powered by an autonomous hybrid energy system. Upon the results we choose the optimal underlying index and we further compose and engineer a weather derivative with features of a typical option contract -which we consider most flexible and appropriate for the case- to test our assumptions on its beneficiary effects for both the budget of private energy producers and the island's public administration. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  10. Identification of Robust Terminal-Area Routes in Convective Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeil, Diana Michalek; Balakrishnan, Hamsa

    2012-01-01

    Convective weather is responsible for large delays and widespread disruptions in the U.S. National Airspace System, especially during summer. Traffic flow management algorithms require reliable forecasts of route blockage to schedule and route traffic. This paper demonstrates how raw convective weather forecasts, which provide deterministic predictions of the vertically integrated liquid (the precipitation content in a column of airspace) can be translated into probabilistic forecasts of whether or not a terminal area route will be blocked. Given a flight route through the terminal area, we apply techniques from machine learning to determine the likelihood that the route will be open in actual weather. The likelihood is then used to optimize terminalarea operations by dynamically moving arrival and departure routes to maximize the expected capacity of the terminal area. Experiments using real weather scenarios on stormy days show that our algorithms recommend that a terminal-area route be modified 30% of the time, opening up 13% more available routes that were forecast to be blocked during these scenarios. The error rate is low, with only 5% of cases corresponding to a modified route being blocked in reality, whereas the original route is in fact open. In addition, for routes predicted to be open with probability 0.95 or greater by our method, 96% of these routes (on average over time horizon) are indeed open in the weather that materializes

  11. Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

  12. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  13. Virginia ESI: INDEX (Index Polygons)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set contains vector polygons representing the boundaries of all hardcopy cartographic products produced as part of the Environmental Sensitivity Index...

  14. Weathering process in Sør Rondane Mountains, East Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamaru, T.; Suganuma, Y.; Oiwane, H.; Miura, M.; Okuno, J.; Hayakawa, H.

    2016-12-01

    Weathering process under the hyper-arid and hypothermal environment is a key to understand the geomorphogic process and landscape evolution in Antarctica and on Mars. A nunber of studies have focused on weathering process of basaltic rocks in Antarctica, however, the nature of the weathering process of plutonic type rock, a common rock type on the Earth, have been less focused and remain unclear. Here, we report the physical/chemical weathering process of the granitic rocks obtained from Dronning Maud Land in East Antarctica based on a multiplicity of petrological approaches. Loss on Ignition (LOI) and major element composition of the crust and core of the rock samples indicate that chemical weathering process in this area seems to be very limited. The microscopic observations and laser-Raman micro spectroscopy for thin sections from the crust and core indicate that goethite grains are formed mainly in the vein around the crust, which is consistent with the higher Fe3+/Fe2+ contrast from the core to crust. A negative correlation between the rock hardness and color strength index (CSI) values also indicate that crust of rock samples tend to less hard than core due to cracking of the rock samples and following goethite formation. On the other hand, EPMA analysis indicates that original Fe-Ti oxide grains in the core of rock samples are damaged by weathering, and altered to hematite, and to non-stoichiometric Fe-Ti compound associated with ilmenite grans in case of the higher relative height samples. These reveal that the weathering process of the plutonic rocks under the hyper-cold and hypothermal environment are mainly controlled by oxidation, including iron hydroxide formation in the veins formed by mechanical distraction, and Fe-Ti oxide alteration in rock interior.

  15. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  16. Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Bobriková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

  17. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    OpenAIRE

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

  18. System Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Tae Jin

    2005-02-01

    This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

  19. Indexing mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, A.G.; Parker, G.E.; Berry, R.

    1976-01-01

    It is stated that the indexing mechanism described can be used in a nuclear reactor fuel element inspection rig. It comprises a tubular body adapted to house a canister containing a number of fuel elements located longtitudinally, and has two chucks spaced apart for displacing the fuel elements longitudinally in a stepwise manner, together with a plunger mechanism for displacing them successively into the chucks. A measuring unit is located between the chucks for measuring the diameter of the fuel elements at intervals about their circumferences, and a secondary indexing mechanism is provided for rotating the measuring unit in a stepwise manner. (U.K.)

  20. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  1. Author Index

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    user1

    Astr. (2012) 33, 419–420. Author Index. 419. AGGARWAL SUNNY. Photoionization Cross-Section of Chlorine-like Iron, 291. AMBASTHA ASHOK see Das, A. C., 1. ARAKIDA HIDEYOSHI. Effect of Inhomogeneity of the Universe on a Gravitationally. Bound Local System: A No-Go Result for Explaining the Secular Increase in.

  2. AUTHOR INDEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    automorphic solutions to fractional order abstract integro-differential equations. 323. Afrouzi G A see Ala Samira ... 521. Agarwal Praveen. Certain fractional integral operators and the generalized multi-index Mittag- ... of positive solutions for sys- tems of second order multi-point bound- ary value problems on time scales 353.

  3. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  4. Vodcasting space weather: The Space Weather FX vodcast series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, C.; Erickson, P. J.

    2008-06-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of nine vodcasts (video podcasts) being created by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, Massachusetts, USA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, Massachusetts, USA). This paper describes the project, its science and outreach goals, and introduces the principal participants.

  5. Clearness index in cloudy days estimated with meteorological information by multiple regression analysis; Kisho joho wo riyoshita kaiki bunseki ni yoru dontenbi no seiten shisu no suitei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakagawa, S [Maizuru National College of Technology, Kyoto (Japan); Kenmoku, Y; Sakakibara, T [Toyohashi University of Technology, Aichi (Japan); Kawamoto, T [Shizuoka University, Shizuoka (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1996-10-27

    Study is under way for a more accurate solar radiation quantity prediction for the enhancement of solar energy utilization efficiency. Utilizing the technique of roughly estimating the day`s clearness index from forecast weather, the forecast weather (constituted of weather conditions such as `clear,` `cloudy,` etc., and adverbs or adjectives such as `afterward,` `temporary,` and `intermittent`) has been quantified relative to the clearness index. This index is named the `weather index` for the purpose of this article. The error high in rate in the weather index relates to cloudy days, which means a weather index falling in 0.2-0.5. It has also been found that there is a high correlation between the clearness index and the north-south wind direction component. A multiple regression analysis has been carried out, under the circumstances, for the estimation of clearness index from the maximum temperature and the north-south wind direction component. As compared with estimation of the clearness index on the basis only of the weather index, estimation using the weather index and maximum temperature achieves a 3% improvement throughout the year. It has also been learned that estimation by use of the weather index and north-south wind direction component enables a 2% improvement for summer and a 5% or higher improvement for winter. 2 refs., 6 figs., 4 tabs.

  6. Simulation and Data Analytics for Mobile Road Weather Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chettri, S. R.; Evans, J. D.; Tislin, D.

    2016-12-01

    Numerous algorithmic and theoretical considerations arise in simulating a vehicle-based weather observation network known as the Mobile Platform Environmental Data (MoPED). MoPED integrates sensor data from a fleet of commercial vehicles (about 600 at last count, with thousands more to come) as they travel interstate, state and local routes and metropolitan areas throughout the conterminous United States. The MoPED simulator models a fleet of anywhere between 1000-10,000 vehicles that travel a highway network encoded in a geospatial database, starting and finishing at random times and moving at randomly-varying speeds. Virtual instruments aboard these vehicles interpolate surface weather parameters (such as temperature and pressure) from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data series, an hourly, coast-to-coast 3km grid of weather parameters modeled by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Whereas real MoPED sensors have noise characteristics that lead to drop-outs, drift, or physically unrealizable values, our simulation introduces a variety of noise distributions into the parameter values inferred from HRRR (Fig. 1). Finally, the simulator collects weather readings from the National Weather Service's Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS, comprised of over 800 airports around the country) for comparison, validation, and analytical experiments. The simulator's MoPED-like weather data stream enables studies like the following: Experimenting with data analysis and calibration methods - e.g., by comparing noisy vehicle data with ASOS "ground truth" in close spatial and temporal proximity (e.g., 10km, 10 min) (Fig. 2). Inter-calibrating different vehicles' sensors when they pass near each other. Detecting spatial structure in the surface weather - such as dry lines, sudden changes in humidity that accompany severe weather - and estimating how many vehicles are needed to reliably map these structures and their motion. Detecting bottlenecks in the

  7. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  8. Relations between a novel, reliable, and rapid index of arterial compliance (PP-HDI) and well-established inidices of arterial blood pressure (ABP) in a sample of hypertensive elderly subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergamini, L; Finelli, M E; Bendini, C; Ferrari, E; Veschi, M; Neviani, F; Manni, B; Pelosi, A; Rioli, G; Neri, M

    2009-01-01

    Hypertension is a risk factor for a long-lasting arterial wall-remodelling leading to stiffness. The rapid method measuring the pulse pressure (PP) by means of the tool of Hypertension Diagnostic Instruments (HDI) called PP-HDI, overcomes some of the problems arising with more-time consuming methods, like ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM), and give information about the elasticity of the arterial walls. We studied the relationship between the PP-HDI, the large artery compliance (LA-C) and small artery compliance (SA-C) and few well-established indices of arterial blood pressure (ABP) in a sample of 75 hypertensive subjects, aged 65 years and over. Significant correlations between LA-C and heart rate (HR), PP-ABPM and PP-HDI were found. SA-C relates with HR and systolic blood pressure (SBP) measured in lying and standing positions. Applying a stepwise regression analysis, we found that LA-C variance stems from PP-HDI and HR, while SA-C variance stems from SBP in lying position. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves for thresholds of PP showed that PP-HDI reached levels of sensitivity/specificity similar to PP-ABPM. In conclusion, surveillance of ABP through hemo-dynamic indices, in particular of SBP, is essential, nevertheless the advantage of this control is not known in an elderly population where the organ damage is already evident. PP needs necessarily an instrumental measurement. The PP-HDI result is similar in reliability with respect to PPABPM, but is more rapid and well applicable in an elderly population.

  9. Reliability and reproducibility of spectral and time domain optical coherence tomography images before and after correction for patients with age-related macular degeneration [v2; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/50m

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad A. Sadiq

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To evaluate the reproducibility and reliability of optical coherence tomography scans obtained using the time domain (TD-OCT StratusTM OCT, and the Spectral Domain (SD-OCT SpectralisTM and CirrusTM OCT devices before and after manual correction in eyes with either Neovascular (NV-AMD or Non-Neovascular (NNV-AMD age-related macular degeneration. Design: Prospective observational study. Methods: Setting: University-based retina practice. Patients: Thirty-six patients (50 eyes with NV-AMD or NNV-AMD. Procedure: OCT scans were taken simultaneously using one TD-OCT and two SD-OCT devices. Main Outcome Measures: Macular thickness measurements were assessed before and after correction of the algorithm by constructing Bland-Altman plots for agreement and calculating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs and coefficients of repeatability (COR to evaluate intraclass repeatability. Results: Spectralis had the highest number of images needing manual correction.  All machines had high ICCs, with Spectralis having the highest.  Also, Bland-Altman plots indicated that there was low agreement between Cirrus™ and Stratus™, Spectralis™ and Stratus™, while there was good agreement between the Cirrus™ and Spectralis™.  The CORs were lowest for SpectralisTM and similar and higher for CirrusTM and StratusTM.  Agreement, CORs, and ICCs generally improved after manual correction, but only minimally.  Conclusion: Agreement is low between devices, except between both SD-OCT machines.  Manual correction tends to improve results.

  10. Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Todor

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

  11. Toward seamless weather-climate and environmental prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunet, Gilbert

    2016-04-01

    Over the last decade or so, predicting the weather, climate and atmospheric composition has emerged as one of the most important areas of scientific endeavor. This is partly because the remarkable increase in skill of current weather forecasts has made society more and more dependent on them day to day for a whole range of decision making. And it is partly because climate change is now widely accepted and the realization is growing rapidly that it will affect every person in the world profoundly, either directly or indirectly. One of the important endeavors of our societies is to remain at the cutting-edge of modelling and predicting the evolution of the fully coupled environmental system: atmosphere (weather and composition), oceans, land surface (physical and biological), and cryosphere. This effort will provide an increasingly accurate and reliable service across all the socio-economic sectors that are vulnerable to the effects of adverse weather and climatic conditions, whether now or in the future. This emerging challenge was at the center of the World Weather Open Science Conference (Montreal, 2014).The outcomes of the conference are described in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) book: Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, (G. Brunet, S. Jones, P. Ruti Eds., WMO-No. 1156, 2015). It is freely available on line at the WMO website. We will discuss some of the outcomes of the conference for the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) long term goals and provide examples of seamless modelling and prediction across a range of timescales at convective and sub-kilometer scales for regional coupled forecasting applications at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

  12. Restoration of severely weathered wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Sam. Williams; Mark. Knaebe

    2000-01-01

    Severely weathered window units were used to test various restoration methods and pretreatments. Sanded and unsanded units were pretreated with a consolidant or water repellent preservative, finished with an oil- or latex-based paint system, and exposed outdoors near Madison, WI, for five years. Pretreatments were applied to both window sashes (stiles and rails) and...

  13. Weather delay costs to trucking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

  14. Synoptic weather conditions during BOBMEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    sions when the strong wind field appeared spread over the peninsula and central India. This was also seen both in OLR and in vertical velocity fields prepared by National Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). A band of low OLR (150–160watts/sqm) could be seen in the south and adjoining central ...

  15. NOAA Weather Radio - All Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-Zero All Hazards Logo Emergency Alert Description Event Codes Fact Sheet FAQ Organization Search -event information for all types of hazards: weather (e.g., tornadoes, floods), natural (e.g Management or Preparedness, civil defense, police or mayor/commissioner sets up linkages to send messages on

  16. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  17. Fatigue Strength of Weathering Steel

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunz, Ludvík; Lukáš, Petr; Klusák, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2012), s. 18-22 ISSN 1392-1320 Grant - others:GA MPO(CZ) FT/TA5/076 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : fatigue of weathering steel * corrosion pits * fatigue notch factor Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.522, year: 2012

  18. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  19. Skywatch: The Western Weather Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Richard A.

    The western United States is a region of mountains and valleys with the world's largest ocean next door. Its weather is unique. This book discusses how water, wind, and environmental conditions combine to create the climatic conditions of the region. Included are sections describing: fronts; cyclones; precipitation; storms; tornadoes; hurricanes;…

  20. The Danish Neck Disability Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Henrik Hein; O'Neill, Lotte; Kongsted, Alice

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To (1) translate and culturally adapt and (2) determine the clinimetric properties of the Danish 8-item Neck Disability Index (NDI-8) in primary sector patients (PSPs) and secondary sector patients (SSPs). Methods: Analyses included 326 patients with neck pain. Validity and reliability...

  1. Accelerated laboratory weathering of acrylic lens materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Thomas; Richter, Steffen; Kogler, René; Pasierb, Mike; Walby, Christopher

    2015-09-01

    Flat samples from various poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) formulations were subjected to outdoor weathering in Arizona and Florida, EMMAQUA® accelerated outdoor weathering, and two accelerated laboratory weathering procedures at 3 Sun irradiance which, imitate dry (Arizona) and wet (Florida) conditions. The main mode of degradation is yellowing and not the generation of haze for any weathering procedure within the investigated radiant exposure. Higher UV absorber concentrations lead to smaller changes in optical properties and in the resulting relative concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) module efficiencies. Comparison of sample properties after various weathering procedures reveals that the influence of weathering factors other than radiant exposure depends on the sample as well.

  2. Afghanistan Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linnet, Poul Martin

    2007-01-01

    basis. The data are divided into different indicators such as security, polls, drug, social, economic, refugees etc. This represents a practical division and does not indicate that a picture as to for instance security can be obtained by solely looking at the data under security. In order to obtain...... a more valid picture on security this must incorporate an integrated look on all data meaning that for instance the economic data provides an element as to the whole picture of security.......The Afghanistan index is a compilation of quantitative and qualitative data on the reconstruction and security effort in Afghanistan. The index aims at providing data for benchmarking of the international performance and thus provides the reader with a quick possibility to retrieve valid...

  3. AMSAA Reliability Growth Guide

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Broemm, William

    2000-01-01

    ... has developed reliability growth methodology for all phases of the process, from planning to tracking to projection. The report presents this methodology and associated reliability growth concepts.

  4. Analysis and assessment of water treatment plant reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szpak Dawid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The subject of the publication is the analysis and assessment of the reliability of the surface water treatment plant (WTP. In the study the one parameter method of reliability assessment was used. Based on the flow sheet derived from the water company the reliability scheme of the analysed WTP was prepared. On the basis of the daily WTP work report the availability index Kg for the individual elements included in the WTP, was determined. Then, based on the developed reliability scheme showing the interrelationships between elements, the availability index Kg for the whole WTP was determined. The obtained value of the availability index Kg was compared with the criteria values.

  5. Development of a global fire weather database for 1980–2012

    OpenAIRE

    R. D. Field; A. C. Spessa; N. A. Aziz; A. Camia; A. Cantin; R. Carr; W. J. de Groot; A. J. Dowdy; M. D. Flannigan; K. Manomaiphiboon; F. Pappenberger; V. Tanpipat; X. Wang

    2014-01-01

    The Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System is the mostly widely used fire danger rating system in the world. We have developed a global database of daily, gridded FWI System calculations from 1980–2012. Input weather data were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research, and two different estimates of daily precipitation from rain gauges over land. FWI System Drought Code (DC) calculations from the gridded datasets were compared to calculations ...

  6. The potential benefits of location-specific biometeorological indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Ho Ting; Wang, Jinfeng; Yin, Qian; Chen, Si; Lai, Poh Chin

    2017-09-01

    It is becoming popular to use biometeorological indexes to study the effects of weather on human health. Most of the biometeorological indexes were developed decades ago and only applicable to certain locations because of different climate types. Merely using standard biometeorological indexes to replace typical weather factors in biometeorological studies of different locations may not be an ideal research direction. This research is aimed at assessing the difference of statistical power between using standard biometeorological indexes and typical weather factors on describing the effects of extreme weather conditions on daily ambulance demands in Hong Kong. Results showed that net effective temperature and apparent temperature did not perform better than typical weather factors in describing daily ambulance demands in this study. The maximum adj- R 2 improvement was only 0.08, whereas the maximum adj- R 2 deterioration was 0.07. In this study, biometeorological indexes did not perform better than typical weather factors, possibly due to the differences of built environments and lifestyles in different locations and eras. Regarding built environments, the original parameters for calculating the index values may not be applicable to Hong Kong as buildings in Hong Kong are extremely dense and most are equipped with air conditioners. Regarding lifestyles, the parameters, which were set decades ago, may be outdated and not suitable to modern lifestyles as using hand-held electrical fans on the street to help reduce heat stress are popular. Hence, it is ideal to have tailor-made updated location-specific biometeorological indexes to study the effects of weather on human health.

  7. Weathering of oils at sea: model/field data comparisons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daling, Per S.; Stroem, Tove

    1999-01-01

    The SINTEF Oil Weathering Model (OWM) has been extensively tested with results from full-scale field trials with experimental oil slicks in the Norwegian NOFO Sea trials in 1994 and 1995 and the AEA 1997 trials in UK. The comparisons between oil weathering values predicted by the model and ground-truth obtained from the field trials are presented and discussed. Good laboratory weathering data of the specific oil as input to the model is essential for obtaining reliable weathering predictions. Predications provided by the SINTEF-OWM enable oil spill personnel to estimate the most appropriate 'window of opportunity' for use of chemical dispersants under various spill situations. Pre-spill scenario analysis with the SINTEF Oil Spill Contingency and Response (OSCAR) model system, in which the SINTEF-OWM is one of several components, has become an important part of contingency plans as well as contingency training of oil spill personnel at refineries, oil terminals and offshore installations in Norway. (Author)

  8. Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Jakowski

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems. SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

  9. Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Jakowski

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems.

    SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

  10. Possible space weather influence on the Earth wheat prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pustil'Nik, L.; Yom Din, G.; Dorman, L.

    We present development of our study of possible influence of space weather modulated by cycle of solar activity on the price bursts in the Earth markets In our previous works 1 2 we showed that correspondent response may have place in the specific locations characterized by a high sensitivity of the weather cloudiness in particular to cosmic ray variation b risk zone agriculture c isolated wheat market with limited external supply of agriculture production We showed that in this situation we may wait specific price burst reaction on unfavorable phase of solar activity and space weather what lead to corresponding abnormalities in the local weather and next crop failure We showed that main types of manifestation of this connection are a Distribution of intervals between price bursts must be like to the distribution of intervals between correspondent extremes of solar activity minimums or maximums b price asymmetry between opposite states of solar activity price in the one type of activity state is systematically higher then in the opposite one We showed in our previous publications that this influence in interval distribution is detected with high reliability in Mediaeval England 1250-1700 both for wheat prices and price of consumables basket We showed that for period of Maunder Minimum price asymmetry of wheat prices observed all prices in minimum state of solar activity was higher the prices in the next maximum state We showed later that this price asymmetry had place in 20-th century in USA durum prices too In

  11. Exercise, Weather, Safety, and Public Attitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Mullan

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Levels of cycling for transport (CFT in Ireland are very low—about 2% nationally—and the government has set a target of 10% of all trips to work by bicycle by 2020. The purpose of this study was to explore the complexities of leisure/sport cyclists’ views about CFT. Sixteen leisure/sport cyclists (four women and 12 men; about half cycled for transport were interviewed about the factors that influenced their decision to cycle somewhere instead of driving and the role of the weather in that decision, whether they considered CFT to be real “exercise,” and the meaning of “safety.” The findings were that the decision to cycle for transport was dominated by practical concerns, and weather concerns added to this organizational burden. For city-dwellers, the key deciding factor was cycling’s efficiency and reliability. Safety concerns centered around negative interactions with drivers and there was a common belief that the general public had very negative attitudes to cycling and cyclists. Finally, most thought that CFT was not “proper” exercise as it would be of insufficient intensity or duration and would take from the time available to do this. These findings show that to promote CFT among leisure/sport cyclists, government and local authorities must improve and highlight the efficiency, safety, and legitimacy of cycling as a transport option. Without this, promotional activities that just focus on the exercise, health, and enjoyment potential of CFT will have little effect.

  12. The interannual variability of the Haines Index over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney

    2013-01-01

    The Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The...

  13. A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

  14. Developing New Strategies for Coping with Weather: Work in Alaskan and Canadian Coastal Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, D. E.

    2014-12-01

    A changing climate is manifested at ground level through the day to day weather. For all Northern residents - community, industrial, operational and response - the need to think about the weather is ever present. Northern residents, and in particular, indigenous community residents, fully understand implications of the weather, however, a comment that has been heard more often is that old ways of knowing are not as reliable as they once were. Weather patterns seem less consistent and subject to more rapid fluctuations. Compromised traditional ways of knowing puts those who need to travel or hunt at greater risk. One response to adapt to this emerging reality is to make greater use of western sources of information, such as weather data and charts provided by NOAA's National Weather Service or Environment Canada. The federal weather agencies have very large and complex forecasting regions to cover, and so one problem is that it can be difficult to provide perfectly tailored forecasts, that cover all possible problems, right down to the very local scale in the communities. Only those affected have a complete feel for their own concerns. Thus, key to a strategy to improve the utility of available weather information is a linking of local-scale manifestations of problematic weather to the larger-scale weather patterns. This is done in two ways: by direct consultation with Northern residents, and by installation of equipment to measure parameters of interest to residents, which are not already being measured. This talk will overview projects in coastal Alaska and Canada targeting this objective. The challenge of designing and conducting interviews, and then of harvesting relevant information, will be visited using examples from the three major contexts: coastal community, industrial, and operational. Examples of how local comments can be married to weather products will be presented.

  15. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  16. Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-25

    Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

  17. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    weather.gov Site Map News Organization Search for: SPC NCEP All NOAA Search by city or zip ... Fire Wx Outlooks RSS Feeds E-Mail Alerts Weather Information Storm Reports Storm Reports Dev. NWS Hazards ...

  18. Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

  19. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  20. World War II Weather Record Transmittances

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  1. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  2. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  3. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to

  4. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  5. Reliability assessment of a multistate freight network for perishable merchandise with multiple suppliers and buyers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yi-Kuei; Yeh, Cheng-Ta; Huang, Cheng-Fu

    2017-01-01

    This study develops a multistate freight network for single and perishable merchandise to assess the freight performance, where a node denotes a supplier, a distribution centre, or a buyer, while a logistics company providing a freight traffic service is denoted by an edge. For each logistics company, carrying capacity should be multistate since partial capacity may be reserved by some customers. The merchandise may perish or be perished during conveyance because of disadvantageous weather or collision in carrying such that the number of intact cargoes may be insufficient for the buyers. Hence, according to the perspective of supply chain management, the reliability, a probability of the network to successfully deliver the cargoes from the suppliers to the buyers subject to a budget, is proposed to be a performance index, where the suppliers and buyers are not the previous customers. An algorithm in terms of minimal paths to assess the reliability is developed. A fruit logistics case is adopted to explore the managerial implications of the reliability using sensitivity analysis.

  6. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  7. 49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions that...

  8. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

    2002-01-01

    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  9. The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

  10. 36 CFR 910.71 - Weather protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Weather protection. 910.71 Section 910.71 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION GENERAL... DEVELOPMENT AREA Glossary of Terms § 910.71 Weather protection. Weather protection means a seasonal or...

  11. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

  12. Cave breakdown by vadose weathering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osborne R. Armstrong L.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Vadose weathering is a significant mechanism for initiating breakdown in caves. Vadose weathering of ore bodies, mineral veins, palaeokarst deposits, non-carbonate keystones and impure, altered or fractured bedrock, which is intersected by caves, will frequently result in breakdown. Breakdown is an active, ongoing process. Breakdown occurs throughout the vadose zone, and is not restricted to large diameter passages, or to cave ceilings. The surfaces of disarticulated blocks are commonly coated, rather than having fresh broken faces, and blocks continue to disintegrate after separating from the bedrock. Not only gypsum, but also hydromagnesite and aragonite are responsible for crystal wedging. It is impossible to study or identify potential breakdown foci by surface surveys alone, in-cave observation and mapping are essential.

  13. Design and realization of an automatic weather station at island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong-hua; Li, Si-ren

    2011-10-01

    In this paper, the design and development of an automatic weather station monitoring is described. The proposed system consists of a set of sensors for measuring meteorological parameters (temperature, wind speed & direction, rain fall, visibility, etc.). To increase the reliability of the system, wind speed & direction are measured redundantly with duplicate sensors. The sensor signals are collected by the data logger CR1000 at several analog and digital inputs. The CR1000 and the sensors form a completely autonomous system which works with the other systems installed in the container. Communication with the master PC is accomplished over the method of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) with the Compact Caimore6550P CDMA DTU. The data are finally stored in tables on the CPU as well as on the CF-Card. The weather station was built as an efficient autonomous system which operates with the other systems to provide the required data for a fully automatic measurement system.

  14. Addressing the Influence of Space Weather on Airline Navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, Lawrence

    2012-01-01

    The advent of satellite-based augmentation systems has made it possible to navigate aircraft safely using radio signals emitted by global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) such as the Global Positioning System. As a signal propagates through the earth's ionosphere, it suffers delay that is proportional to the total electron content encountered along the raypath. Since the magnitude of this total electron content is strongly influenced by space weather, the safety and reliability of GNSS for airline navigation requires continual monitoring of the state of the ionosphere and calibration of ionospheric delay. This paper examines the impact of space weather on GNSS-based navigation and provides an overview of how the Wide Area Augmentation System protects its users from positioning error due to ionospheric disturbances

  15. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  16. Evaluation of structural reliability using simulation methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baballëku Markel

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Eurocode describes the 'index of reliability' as a measure of structural reliability, related to the 'probability of failure'. This paper is focused on the assessment of this index for a reinforced concrete bridge pier. It is rare to explicitly use reliability concepts for design of structures, but the problems of structural engineering are better known through them. Some of the main methods for the estimation of the probability of failure are the exact analytical integration, numerical integration, approximate analytical methods and simulation methods. Monte Carlo Simulation is used in this paper, because it offers a very good tool for the estimation of probability in multivariate functions. Complicated probability and statistics problems are solved through computer aided simulations of a large number of tests. The procedures of structural reliability assessment for the bridge pier and the comparison with the partial factor method of the Eurocodes have been demonstrated in this paper.

  17. New Space Weather Systems Under Development and Their Contribution to Space Weather Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobiska, W.; Bouwer, D.; Schunk, R.; Garrett, H.; Mertens, C.; Bowman, B.

    2008-12-01

    There have been notable successes during the past decade in the development of operational space environment systems. Examples include the Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) of the Earth's magnetosphere, 2000; SOLAR2000 (S2K) solar spectral irradiances, 2001; High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model (HASDM) neutral atmosphere densities, 2004; Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) ionosphere specification, 2006; Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry (HAF) solar wind parameters, 2007; Communication Alert and Prediction System (CAPS) ionosphere, high frequency radio, and scintillation S4 index prediction, 2008; and GEO Alert and Prediction System (GAPS) geosynchronous environment satellite charging specification and forecast, 2008. Operational systems that are in active operational implementation include the Jacchia-Bowman 2006/2008 (JB2006/2008) neutral atmosphere, 2009, and the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) aviation radiation model using the Radiation Alert and Prediction System (RAPS), 2010. U.S. national agency and commercial assets will soon reach a state where specification and prediction will become ubiquitous and where coordinated management of the space environment and space weather will become a necessity. We describe the status of the CAPS, GAPS, RAPS, and JB2008 operational development. We additionally discuss the conditions that are laying the groundwork for space weather management and estimate the unfilled needs as we move beyond specification and prediction efforts.

  18. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  19. Hydrologic applications of weather radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Jun; Habib, Emad; Andrieu, Hervé; Morin, Efrat

    2015-12-01

    By providing high-resolution quantitative precipitation information (QPI), weather radars have revolutionized hydrology in the last two decades. With the aid of GIS technology, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) have enabled routine high-resolution hydrologic modeling in many parts of the world. Given the ever-increasing need for higher-resolution hydrologic and water resources information for a wide range of applications, one may expect that the use of weather radar will only grow. Despite the tremendous progress, a number of significant scientific, technological and engineering challenges remain to realize its potential. New challenges are also emerging as new areas of applications are discovered, explored and pursued. The purpose of this special issue is to provide the readership with some of the latest advances, lessons learned, experiences gained, and science issues and challenges related to hydrologic applications of weather radar. The special issue features 20 contributions on various topics which reflect the increasing diversity as well as the areas of focus in radar hydrology today. The contributions may be grouped as follows:

  20. Customer Dissatisfaction Index and its Improvement Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lvovs, Aleksandrs; Mutule, Anna

    2010-01-01

    The paper gives description of customer dissatisfaction index (CDI) that can be used as reliability level characterizing factor. The factor is directly joined with customer satisfaction of power supply and can be used for control of reliability level of power supply for residential customers. CDI relations with other reliability indices are shown. Paper also gives a brief overview of legislation of Latvia in power industry that is the base for CDI introduction. Calculations of CDI improvement costs are performed in the paper too.

  1. Pricing of temperature index insurance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che Mohd Imran Che Taib

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study pricing of weather insurance contracts based on temperature indices. Three different pricing methods are analysed: the classical burn approach, index modelling and temperature modelling. We take the data from Malaysia as our empirical case. Our results show that there is a significant difference between the burn and index pricing approaches on one hand, and the temperature modelling method on the other. The latter approach is pricing the insurance contract using a seasonal autoregressive time series model for daily temperature variations, and thus provides a precise probabilistic model for the fine structure of temperature evolution. We complement our pricing analysis by an investigation of the profit/loss distribution from the contract, in the perspective of both the insured and the insurer.

  2. A reliability analysis tool for SpaceWire network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Qiang; Zhu, Longjiang; Fei, Haidong; Wang, Xingyou

    2017-04-01

    A SpaceWire is a standard for on-board satellite networks as the basis for future data-handling architectures. It is becoming more and more popular in space applications due to its technical advantages, including reliability, low power and fault protection, etc. High reliability is the vital issue for spacecraft. Therefore, it is very important to analyze and improve the reliability performance of the SpaceWire network. This paper deals with the problem of reliability modeling and analysis with SpaceWire network. According to the function division of distributed network, a reliability analysis method based on a task is proposed, the reliability analysis of every task can lead to the system reliability matrix, the reliability result of the network system can be deduced by integrating these entire reliability indexes in the matrix. With the method, we develop a reliability analysis tool for SpaceWire Network based on VC, where the computation schemes for reliability matrix and the multi-path-task reliability are also implemented. By using this tool, we analyze several cases on typical architectures. And the analytic results indicate that redundancy architecture has better reliability performance than basic one. In practical, the dual redundancy scheme has been adopted for some key unit, to improve the reliability index of the system or task. Finally, this reliability analysis tool will has a directive influence on both task division and topology selection in the phase of SpaceWire network system design.

  3. Suncor maintenance and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, S. [Suncor Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Fleet maintenance and reliability at Suncor Energy was discussed in this presentation, with reference to Suncor Energy's primary and support equipment fleets. This paper also discussed Suncor Energy's maintenance and reliability standard involving people, processes and technology. An organizational maturity chart that graphed organizational learning against organizational performance was illustrated. The presentation also reviewed the maintenance and reliability framework; maintenance reliability model; the process overview of the maintenance and reliability standard; a process flow chart of maintenance strategies and programs; and an asset reliability improvement process flow chart. An example of an improvement initiative was included, with reference to a shovel reliability review; a dipper trip reliability investigation; bucket related failures by type and frequency; root cause analysis of the reliability process; and additional actions taken. Last, the presentation provided a graph of the results of the improvement initiative and presented the key lessons learned. tabs., figs.

  4. Decadal changes of weather types in the alpine region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stefanicki, G.; Talkner, P.; Weber, R.O. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1997-06-01

    The annual occurrence of different weather types of Schuepp`s synoptic classification in the Alpine region has changed since the beginning of its recording 1945. The annual frequency (number of days) of convective types has increased and that of advective types has decreased. In parallel the number of long-lasting convective episodes rose and the number of long-lasting advective episodes lessened. Most of the change took place in winter. The frequencies of different weather types and the annual mean of certain meteorological parameters are significantly correlated. Moreover, there is a strong interdependence between the subclass of high pressure types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. (author) 3 figs., 3 refs.

  5. CONSIDERING TRAVEL TIME RELIABILITY AND SAFETY FOR EVALUATION OF CONGESTION RELIEF SCHEMES ON EXPRESSWAY SEGMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak MEHRAN

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluation of the efficiency of congestion relief schemes on expressways has generally been based on average travel time analysis. However, road authorities are much more interested in knowing the possible impacts of improvement schemes on safety and travel time reliability prior to implementing them in real conditions. A methodology is presented to estimate travel time reliability based on modeling travel time variations as a function of demand, capacity and weather conditions. For a subject expressway segment, patterns of demand and capacity were generated for each 5-minute interval over a year by using the Monte-Carlo simulation technique, and accidents were generated randomly according to traffic conditions. A whole year analysis was performed by comparing demand and available capacity for each scenario and shockwave analysis was used to estimate the queue length at each time interval. Travel times were estimated from refined speed-flow relationships and buffer time index was estimated as a measure of travel time reliability. it was shown that the estimated reliability measures and predicted number of accidents are very close to observed values through empirical data. After validation, the methodology was applied to assess the impact of two alternative congestion relief schemes on a subject expressway segment. one alternative was to open the hard shoulder to traffic during the peak period, while the other was to reduce the peak period demand by 15%. The extent of improvements in travel conditions and safety, likewise the reduction in road users' costs after implementing each improvement scheme were estimated. it was shown that both strategies can result in up to 23% reduction in the number of occurred accidents and significant improvements in travel time reliability. Finally, the advantages and challenging issues of selecting each improvement scheme were discussed.

  6. Indexing contamination surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, R.L.

    1998-01-01

    The responsibility for safely managing the Tank Farms at Hanford belongs to Lockheed Martin Hanford Corporation which is part of the six company Project Hanford Management Team led by Fluor Daniel Hanford, Inc.. These Tank Farm Facilities contain numerous outdoor contamination areas which are surveyed at a periodicity consistent with the potential radiological conditions, occupancy, and risk of changes in radiological conditions. This document describes the survey documentation and data tracking method devised to track the results of contamination surveys this process is referred to as indexing. The indexing process takes a representative data set as an indicator for the contamination status of the facility. The data are further manipulated into a single value that can be tracked and trended using standard statistical methodology. To report meaningful data, the routine contamination surveys must be performed in a manner that allows the survey method and the data collection process to be recreated. Three key criteria are necessary to accomplish this goal: Accurate maps, consistent documentation, and consistent consolidation of data meeting these criteria provides data of sufficient quality to be tracked. Tracking of survey data is accomplished by converting the individual survey results into a weighted value, corrected for the actual number of survey points. This information can be compared over time using standard statistical analysis to identify trends. At the Tank Farms, the need to track and trend the facility's radiological status presents unique challenges. Many of these Tank Farm facilities date back to the second world war. The Tank Farm Facilities are exposed to weather extremes, plant and animal intrusion, as well as all of the normal challenges associated with handling radiological waste streams. Routine radiological surveys did not provide a radiological status adequate for continuing comparisons

  7. The Accelerator Reliability Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R

    2014-01-01

    A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.

  8. Validade e confiabilidade da versão brasileira do Índice de Capacidade para o Trabalho Validez y confiabilidad de la versión brasilera del Índice de Capacidad para el Trabajo Validity and reliability of the Brazilian version of the Work Ability Index questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Carmen Martinez

    2009-06-01

    : cuestiones relativas a los "recursos mentales" (20,6% de la varianza, a la autopercepción de la habilidad para el trabajo (18,9% de la varianza. El índice discriminó los trabajadores según el nivel de ausentismo, identificando promedio estadísticamente significativa (pOBJECTIVE: To evaluate the validity and reliability of the Portuguese language version of a work ability index. METHODS: Cross sectional survey of a sample of 475 workers from an electrical company in the state of Sao Paulo, Southeastern Brazil (spread across ten municipalities in the Campinas area, carried out in 2005. The following aspects of the Brazilian version of the Work Ability Index were evaluated: construct validity, using factorial exploratory analysis, and discriminant capacity, by comparing mean Work Ability Index scores in two groups with different absenteeism levels; criterion validity, by determining the correlation between self-reported health and Work Ability Index score; and reliability, using Cronbach's alpha to determine the internal consistency of the questionnaire. RESULTS: Factorial analysis indicated three factors in the work ability construct: issues pertaining to "mental resources" (20.6% of the variance, self-perceived work ability (18.9% of the variance, and presence of diseases and health-related limitations (18.4% of the variance. The index was capable of discriminating workers according to levels of absenteeism, identifying a significantly lower (p<0.0001 mean score among subjects with high absenteeism (37.2 points when compared to those with low absenteeism (42.3 points. Criterion validity analysis showed a correlation between the index and all dimensions of health status analyzed (p<0.0001. Reliability of the index was high, with a Cronbach's alpha of 0.72. CONCLUSIONS:The Brazilian version of the Work Ability Index showed satisfactory psychometric properties with respect to construct validity, thus constituting an appropriate option for evaluating work ability in both

  9. Test–retest reliability of the Disease Activity Score 28 CRP (DAS28-CRP), the Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) and the Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI) in rheumatoid arthritis when based on patient self-assessment of tender and swollen joints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heegaard, Cecilie; Dreyer, Lene; Egsmose, Charlotte

    2013-01-01

    and physician-derived scores. Thirty out-clinic RA patients with stable disease were included. A joint count was performed two times 1 week apart by the patient and by an experienced physician. Test-retest reliability was expressed as the least significant difference (LSD), as the LSD in percent of the mean...... score (%LSD) and as intra-individual coefficients of variation (CVi). Mean scores based on physician vs. patient joint counts (visit 1) were: DAS28-CRP(4v) 3.5 ± 1.0 vs. 3.6 ± 1.1 (not significant (NS)), DAS28-CRP(3v) 3.4 ± 0.9 vs. 3.5 ± 0.9 (NS), SDAI 14.2 ± 9.4 vs.14.1 ± 9.4 (NS) and CDAI 13.4 ± 9.......3 vs. 13.3 ± 9.4 (NS). The LSDs (%LSD) for duplicate assessments of patient-derived scores (visit 2 vs. 1) were: DAS28-CRP(4v) 0.8 (23.2), DAS28-CRP(3v) 0.9 (25.2), SDAI 8.3 (59.9) and CDAI 8.4 (63.8). Similar LSDs were found for differences between duplicate assessments of physician-derived scores...

  10. Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedan, R. W.

    1983-01-01

    The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

  11. Reliability enhancement of portal frame structure by finite element synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagiri, S.

    1989-01-01

    The stochastic finite element methods have been applied to the evaluation of structural response and reliability of uncertain structural systems. The structural reliability index of the advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method is a candidate of the measure of assessing structural safety and reliability. The reliability index can be evaluated when a baseline design of structures under interest is proposed and the covariance matrix of the probabilistic variables is acquired to represent uncertainties involved in the structure systems. The reliability index thus evaluated is not assured the largest one for the structure. There is left a possibility to enhance the structural reliability for the given covariance matrix by changing the baseline design. From such a viewpoint of structural optimization, some ideas have been proposed to maximize the reliability or to minimize the failure probability of uncertain structural systems. A method of changing the design is proposed to increase the reliability index from its baseline value to another desired value. The reliability index in this paper is calculated mainly by the method of Lagrange multiplier

  12. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  13. Human Reliability Program Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bodin, Michael

    2012-09-25

    This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.

  14. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  15. Reliability of software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopetz, H.

    1980-01-01

    Common factors and differences in the reliability of hardware and software; reliability increase by means of methods of software redundancy. Maintenance of software for long term operating behavior. (HP) [de

  16. Cognitive Task Analysis of Business Jet Pilots' Weather Flying Behaviors: Preliminary Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorella, Kara; Pliske, Rebecca; Hutton, Robert; Chrenka, Jason

    2001-01-01

    This report presents preliminary findings from a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of business aviation piloting. Results describe challenging weather-related aviation decisions and the information and cues used to support these decisions. Further, these results demonstrate the role of expertise in business aviation decision-making in weather flying, and how weather information is acquired and assessed for reliability. The challenging weather scenarios and novice errors identified in the results provide the basis for experimental scenarios and dependent measures to be used in future flight simulation evaluations of candidate aviation weather information systems. Finally, we analyzed these preliminary results to recommend design and training interventions to improve business aviation decision-making with weather information. The primary objective of this report is to present these preliminary findings and to document the extended CTA methodology used to elicit and represent expert business aviator decision-making with weather information. These preliminary findings will be augmented with results from additional subjects using this methodology. A summary of the complete results, absent the detailed treatment of methodology provided in this report, will be documented in a separate publication.

  17. The effort to increase the space weather forecasting accuracy in KSWC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition as the Regional Warning Center of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. Recently, KSWC are focusing on increasing the accuracy of space weather forecasting results and verifying the model generated results. The forecasting accuracy will be calculated based on the probability statistical estimation so that the results can be compared numerically. Regarding the cosmic radiation does, we are gathering the actual measured data of radiation does using the instrument by cooperation with the domestic airlines. Based on the measurement, we are going to verify the reliability of SAFE system which was developed by KSWC to provide the cosmic radiation does information with the airplane cabin crew and public users.

  18. Structural Reliability of Wind Turbine Blades

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    turbine blades. The main purpose is to draw a clear picture of how reliability-based design of wind turbines can be done in practice. The objectives of the thesis are to create methodologies for efficient reliability assessment of composite materials and composite wind turbine blades, and to map...... the uncertainties in the processes, materials and external conditions that have an effect on the health of a composite structure. The study considers all stages in a reliability analysis, from defining models of structural components to obtaining the reliability index and calibration of partial safety factors...... by developing new models and standards or carrying out tests The following aspects are covered in detail: ⋅ The probabilistic aspects of ultimate strength of composite laminates are addressed. Laminated plates are considered as a general structural reliability system where each layer in a laminate is a separate...

  19. Reliable Design Versus Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth A.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation focuses on reliability and trust for the users portion of the FPGA design flow. It is assumed that the manufacturer prior to hand-off to the user tests FPGA internal components. The objective is to present the challenges of creating reliable and trusted designs. The following will be addressed: What makes a design vulnerable to functional flaws (reliability) or attackers (trust)? What are the challenges for verifying a reliable design versus a trusted design?

  20. Pocket Handbook on Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-09-01

    exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

  1. Probabilistic Space Weather Forecasting: a Bayesian Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camporeale, E.; Chandorkar, M.; Borovsky, J.; Care', A.

    2017-12-01

    Most of the Space Weather forecasts, both at operational and research level, are not probabilistic in nature. Unfortunately, a prediction that does not provide a confidence level is not very useful in a decision-making scenario. Nowadays, forecast models range from purely data-driven, machine learning algorithms, to physics-based approximation of first-principle equations (and everything that sits in between). Uncertainties pervade all such models, at every level: from the raw data to finite-precision implementation of numerical methods. The most rigorous way of quantifying the propagation of uncertainties is by embracing a Bayesian probabilistic approach. One of the simplest and most robust machine learning technique in the Bayesian framework is Gaussian Process regression and classification. Here, we present the application of Gaussian Processes to the problems of the DST geomagnetic index forecast, the solar wind type classification, and the estimation of diffusion parameters in radiation belt modeling. In each of these very diverse problems, the GP approach rigorously provide forecasts in the form of predictive distributions. In turn, these distributions can be used as input for ensemble simulations in order to quantify the amplification of uncertainties. We show that we have achieved excellent results in all of the standard metrics to evaluate our models, with very modest computational cost.

  2. Review of power sources for Alaska DOT & PF road weather information systems (RWIS) : phase I.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    This report documents the findings related to a review of power sources for six off-grid Road Weather Information Systems (RWIS) in : Alaska. Various power sources were reviewed as a means of reliably operating the off-grid RWIS sites throughout the ...

  3. Graphical tools for TV weather presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najman, M.

    2010-09-01

    Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

  4. Reliability in engineering '87

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuma, M.

    1987-01-01

    The participants heard 51 papers dealing with the reliability of engineering products. Two of the papers were incorporated in INIS, namely ''Reliability comparison of two designs of low pressure regeneration of the 1000 MW unit at the Temelin nuclear power plant'' and ''Use of probability analysis of reliability in designing nuclear power facilities.''(J.B.)

  5. Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

    2017-12-01

    The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

  6. Walker Branch Throughfall Displacement Experiment Data Report: Site Characterization, System Performance, Weather, Species Composition, and Growth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanson, P.J.

    2001-09-04

    This numeric data package provides data sets, and accompanying documentation, on site characterization, system performance, weather, species composition, and growth for the Throughfall Displacement Experiment, which was established in the Walker Branch Watershed of East Tennessee to provide data on the responses of forests to altered precipitation regimes. The specific data sets include soil water content and potential, coarse fraction of the soil profile, litter layer temperature, soil temperature, monthly weather, daily weather, hourly weather, species composition of trees and saplings, mature tree and sapling annual growth, and relative leaf area index. Fortran and SAS{trademark} access codes are provided to read the ASCII data files. The data files and this documentation are available without charge on a variety of media and via the Internet from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC).

  7. Space weather and space anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

  8. Reliable computer systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wear, L L; Pinkert, J R

    1993-11-01

    In this article, we looked at some decisions that apply to the design of reliable computer systems. We began with a discussion of several terms such as testability, then described some systems that call for highly reliable hardware and software. The article concluded with a discussion of methods that can be used to achieve higher reliability in computer systems. Reliability and fault tolerance in computers probably will continue to grow in importance. As more and more systems are computerized, people will want assurances about the reliability of these systems, and their ability to work properly even when sub-systems fail.

  9. Human factor reliability program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoblochova, L.

    2017-01-01

    The human factor's reliability program was at Slovenske elektrarne, a.s. (SE) nuclear power plants. introduced as one of the components Initiatives of Excellent Performance in 2011. The initiative's goal was to increase the reliability of both people and facilities, in response to 3 major areas of improvement - Need for improvement of the results, Troubleshooting support, Supporting the achievement of the company's goals. The human agent's reliability program is in practice included: - Tools to prevent human error; - Managerial observation and coaching; - Human factor analysis; -Quick information about the event with a human agent; -Human reliability timeline and performance indicators; - Basic, periodic and extraordinary training in human factor reliability(authors)

  10. New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

    2005-01-01

    Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

  11. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  12. Fossil Microorganisms and Formation of Early Precambrian Weathering Profiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozanov, A. Yu; Astafieva, M. M.; Vrevsky, A. B.; Alfimova, N. A.; Matrenichev, V. A.; Hoover, R. B.

    2009-01-01

    Weathering crusts are the only reliable evidences of the existence of continental conditions. Often they are the only source of information about exogenous processes and subsequently about conditions under which the development of the biosphere occurred. A complex of diverse fossil microorganisms was discovered as a result of Scanning Electron Microscope investigations. The chemical composition of the discovered fossils is identical to that of the host rocks and is represented by Si, Al, Fe, Ca and Mg. Probably, the microorganisms fixed in rocks played the role of catalyst. The decomposition of minerals comprising the rocks and their transformation into clayey (argillaceous) minerals, most likely occurred under the influence of microorganisms. And may be unique weathering crusts of Early Precambrian were formed due to interaction between specific composition of microorganism assemblage and conditions of hypergene transformations. So it is possible to speak about colonization of land by microbes already at that time and about existence of single raw from weathering crusts (Primitive soils) to real soils.

  13. Reliability on the move: safety and reliability in transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guy, G.B.

    1989-01-01

    The development of transportation has been a significant factor in the development of civilisation as a whole. Our technical ability to move people and goods now seems virtually limitless when one considers for example the achievements of the various space programmes. Yet our current achievements rely heavily on high standards of safety and reliability from equipment and the human component of transportation systems. Recent failures have highlighted our dependence on equipment and human reliability. This book represents the proceedings of the 1989 Safety and Reliability Society symposium held at Bath on 11-12 October 1989. The structure of the book follows the structure of the symposium itself and the papers selected represent current thinking the the wide field of transportation, and the areas of rail (6 papers, three on railway signalling), air including space (two papers), road (one paper), road and rail (two papers) and sea (three papers) are covered. There are four papers concerned with general transport issues. Three papers concerned with the transport of radioactive materials are indexed separately. (author)

  14. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Watari

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  15. Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

  16. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering

    OpenAIRE

    Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Philip; Hartmann, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimi...

  17. [Effect of weather on odontogenic abscesses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, G; Schmidseder, R

    1978-11-01

    An increased frequency of odontogenous abcesses was observed on certain days in the course of routine clinical practice. We therefore investigated the possibility of a statistically significant weather-related odontogenous soft-tissue purulence originating from chronic apical periodontitis. Medical reports of patients treated between 1970 and 1977 were used. Our study indicated that the frequency of odontogenous abcesses was significantly higher with cyclonic weather conditions, i.e., weather with low barometric pressure.

  18. Models of Weather Impact on Air Traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao

    2017-01-01

    Flight delays have been a serious problem in the national airspace system costing about $30B per year. About 70 of the delays are attributed to weather and upto two thirds of these are avoidable. Better decision support tools would reduce these delays and improve air traffic management tools. Such tools would benefit from models of weather impacts on the airspace operations. This presentation discusses use of machine learning methods to mine various types of weather and traffic data to develop such models.

  19. Availability of high quality weather data measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Elsa; Johansen, Jakob Berg; Furbo, Simon

    In the period 2016-2017 the project “Availability of high quality weather data measurements” is carried out at Department of Civil Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark. The aim of the project is to establish measured high quality weather data which will be easily available...... for the building energy branch and the solar energy branch in their efforts to achieve energy savings and for researchers and students carrying out projects where measured high quality weather data are needed....

  20. Optimizing Placement of Weather Stations: Exploring Objective Functions of Meaningful Combinations of Multiple Weather Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, A.; Dietterich, T.; Selker, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Many regions of the world lack ground-based weather data due to inadequate or unreliable weather station networks. For example, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have unreliable, sparse networks of weather stations. The absence of these data can have consequences on weather forecasting, prediction of severe weather events, agricultural planning, and climate change monitoring. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) project seeks to address these problems by deploying and operating a large network of weather stations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. To design the TAHMO network, we must determine where to place weather stations within each country. We should consider how we can create accurate spatio-temporal maps of weather data and how to balance the desired accuracy of each weather variable of interest (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, etc.). We can express this problem as a joint optimization of multiple weather variables, given a fixed number of weather stations. We use reanalysis data as the best representation of the "true" weather patterns that occur in the region of interest. For each possible combination of sites, we interpolate the reanalysis data between selected locations and calculate the mean average error between the reanalysis ("true") data and the interpolated data. In order to formulate our multi-variate optimization problem, we explore different methods of weighting each weather variable in our objective function. These methods include systematic variation of weights to determine which weather variables have the strongest influence on the network design, as well as combinations targeted for specific purposes. For example, we can use computed evapotranspiration as a metric that combines many weather variables in a way that is meaningful for agricultural and hydrological applications. We compare the errors of the weather station networks produced by each optimization problem formulation. We also compare these

  1. Global Solar UV Index (invited paper)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Repacholi, M.H.

    2000-01-01

    Excessive solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure produces a significant burden of disease to the skin, eyes and immune system. Effective programmes for the reduction of UV exposure are needed to reduce this disease burden and the associated health care costs. The UV index is seen as an effective tool for communicating important protection information to the public through its use in media news and weather information. The index is described and it is suggested that universally common messages should be associated with its ranges. (author)

  2. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  3. Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  4. The Spirit of North Dakota: Alive in Weatherization; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    North Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  5. A Tribute to Weatherization Solutions in South Dakota: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    South Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  6. Weatherization Savings Takes Root in New Mexico: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    New Mexico demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  7. Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  8. Weatherization in Arkansas: A Gem of a Program: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Arkansas demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  9. New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  10. Weatherization is a Hit in Michigan: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Michigan demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  11. Weatherization Builds on Delaware's Innovative Past: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Delaware demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  12. Taking Weatherization to New Heights in Colorado: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Colorado demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  13. Weatherization: Wyoming's Hidden Resource; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Wyoming demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  14. Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  15. Road weather information for travelers : improving road weather messages and dissemination methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) recently completed a study titled Human Factors Analysis of Road Weather Advisory and Control Information (Publication No. FHWAJPO- 10-053). The goal of the study was to...

  16. Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  17. Weatherization Sails on Maryland's Legacy of Innovation: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Maryland demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  18. New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  19. Weatherization Plays a Starring Role in Mississippi: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    Mississippi demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

  20. Characterisation of weathered clayey soils responsible for shallow landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Meisina

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Shallow earth translational slides and earth flows, affecting colluvial soils derived by the weathering of the clayey bedrock, are a recurrent problem causing damage to buildings and roads in many areas of Apennines. The susceptibility assessment, e.g. slope stability models, requires the preliminary characterization of these superficial covers (lithology, geotechnical and hydraulic parameters. The aim of the work is to develop and test a methodology for the identification and mapping of weathered clayey soils responsible for shallow landslides. A test site in Northern Apennines (Province of Pavia was selected. Argillaceous and marly successions characterize the area. Shallow landslides occurred periodically due to high intensity rainfalls. Trench pits were used for the soil profile description (lithology, structure, grade of weathering, thickness and sampling. The main geological, topographic and geomorphologic parameters of shallow landslides were analysed. Field surveys were integrated with some geotechnical laboratory tests (index properties, suction and volumetric characteristic determination, methylene blue adsorption test, linear shrinkage, swell strain. Engineering geological zoning was carried out by grouping the superficial soils on the basis of the following attributes: topographic conditions (slope angle, landslide occurrence, lithology (grain size, geometry (thickness, lithology of the bedrock, hydrogeological and geotechnical characteristics. The resulting engineering-geological units (areas that may be regarded as homogeneous from the geomorphologic and engineering – geological point of view were analysed in terms of shallow slope instability.

  1. Space Weather Effects Produced by the Ring Current Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganushkina, Natalia; Jaynes, Allison; Liemohn, Michael

    2017-11-01

    One of the definitions of space weather describes it as the time-varying space environment that may be hazardous to technological systems in space and/or on the ground and/or endanger human health or life. The ring current has its contributions to space weather effects, both in terms of particles, ions and electrons, which constitute it, and magnetic and electric fields produced and modified by it at the ground and in space. We address the main aspects of the space weather effects from the ring current starting with brief review of ring current discovery and physical processes and the Dst-index and predictions of the ring current and storm occurrence based on it. Special attention is paid to the effects on satellites produced by the ring current electrons. The ring current is responsible for several processes in the other inner magnetosphere populations, such as the plasmasphere and radiation belts which is also described. Finally, we discuss the ring current influence on the ionosphere and the generation of geomagnetically induced currents (GIC).

  2. Evaluation of weather-based rice yield models in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudharsan, D.; Adinarayana, J.; Reddy, D. Raji; Sreenivas, G.; Ninomiya, S.; Hirafuji, M.; Kiura, T.; Tanaka, K.; Desai, U. B.; Merchant, S. N.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to compare two different rice simulation models—standalone (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer [DSSAT]) and web based (SImulation Model for RIce-Weather relations [SIMRIW])—with agrometeorological data and agronomic parameters for estimation of rice crop production in southern semi-arid tropics of India. Studies were carried out on the BPT5204 rice variety to evaluate two crop simulation models. Long-term experiments were conducted in a research farm of Acharya N G Ranga Agricultural University (ANGRAU), Hyderabad, India. Initially, the results were obtained using 4 years (1994-1997) of data with weather parameters from a local weather station to evaluate DSSAT simulated results with observed values. Linear regression models used for the purpose showed a close relationship between DSSAT and observed yield. Subsequently, yield comparisons were also carried out with SIMRIW and DSSAT, and validated with actual observed values. Realizing the correlation coefficient values of SIMRIW simulation values in acceptable limits, further rice experiments in monsoon (Kharif) and post-monsoon (Rabi) agricultural seasons (2009, 2010 and 2011) were carried out with a location-specific distributed sensor network system. These proximal systems help to simulate dry weight, leaf area index and potential yield by the Java based SIMRIW on a daily/weekly/monthly/seasonal basis. These dynamic parameters are useful to the farming community for necessary decision making in a ubiquitous manner. However, SIMRIW requires fine tuning for better results/decision making.

  3. Space Weather Influence on the Earth wheat markets: past, present, and future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pustil'Nik, Lev

    We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agriculture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial connections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simultaneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works (I, II) included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the question, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predominant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

  4. Reliability and safety engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

    2016-01-01

    Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

  5. Assessing and Adapting Scientific Results for Space Weather Research to Operations (R2O)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, B. J.; Friedl, L.; Halford, A. J.; Mays, M. L.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Singer, H. J.; Stehr, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Why doesn't a solid scientific paper necessarily result in a tangible improvement in space weather capability? A well-known challenge in space weather forecasting is investing effort to turn the results of basic scientific research into operational knowledge. This process is commonly known as "Research to Operations," abbreviated R2O. There are several aspects of this process: 1) How relevant is the scientific result to a particular space weather process? 2) If fully utilized, how much will that result improve the reliability of the forecast for the associated process? 3) How much effort will this transition require? Is it already in a relatively usable form, or will it require a great deal of adaptation? 4) How much burden will be placed on forecasters? Is it "plug-and-play" or will it require effort to operate? 5) How can robust space weather forecasting identify challenges for new research? This presentation will cover several approaches that have potential utility in assessing scientific results for use in space weather research. The demonstration of utility is the first step, relating to the establishment of metrics to ensure that there will be a clear benefit to the end user. The presentation will then move to means of determining cost vs. benefit, (where cost involves the full effort required to transition the science to forecasting, and benefit concerns the improvement of forecast reliability), and conclude with a discussion of the role of end users and forecasters in driving further innovation via "O2R."

  6. Comparison of reliability of lateral cephalogram and computed ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-05-07

    May 7, 2014 ... measurements acquired from both the modalities are reliable and reproducible, but .... paint on all the slice of the image stack in the axial plane of ..... between body mass index, age and upper airway measurements in snorers.

  7. A Severe Weather Laboratory Exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate Class Using Active Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundstein, Andrew; Durkee, Joshua; Frye, John; Andersen, Theresa; Lieberman, Jordan

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a new severe weather laboratory exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate class, appropriate for first and second year college students (including nonscience majors), that incorporates inquiry-based learning techniques. In the lab, students play the role of meteorologists making forecasts for severe weather. The…

  8. Human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougherty, E.M.; Fragola, J.R.

    1988-01-01

    The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach

  9. Reliability of electronic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roca, Jose L.

    2001-01-01

    Reliability techniques have been developed subsequently as a need of the diverse engineering disciplines, nevertheless they are not few those that think they have been work a lot on reliability before the same word was used in the current context. Military, space and nuclear industries were the first ones that have been involved in this topic, however not only in these environments it is that it has been carried out this small great revolution in benefit of the increase of the reliability figures of the products of those industries, but rather it has extended to the whole industry. The fact of the massive production, characteristic of the current industries, drove four decades ago, to the fall of the reliability of its products, on one hand, because the massively itself and, for other, to the recently discovered and even not stabilized industrial techniques. Industry should be changed according to those two new requirements, creating products of medium complexity and assuring an enough reliability appropriated to production costs and controls. Reliability began to be integral part of the manufactured product. Facing this philosophy, the book describes reliability techniques applied to electronics systems and provides a coherent and rigorous framework for these diverse activities providing a unifying scientific basis for the entire subject. It consists of eight chapters plus a lot of statistical tables and an extensive annotated bibliography. Chapters embrace the following topics: 1- Introduction to Reliability; 2- Basic Mathematical Concepts; 3- Catastrophic Failure Models; 4-Parametric Failure Models; 5- Systems Reliability; 6- Reliability in Design and Project; 7- Reliability Tests; 8- Software Reliability. This book is in Spanish language and has a potentially diverse audience as a text book from academic to industrial courses. (author)

  10. Operational safety reliability research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.E.; Boccio, J.L.

    1986-01-01

    Operating reactor events such as the TMI accident and the Salem automatic-trip failures raised the concern that during a plant's operating lifetime the reliability of systems could degrade from the design level that was considered in the licensing process. To address this concern, NRC is sponsoring the Operational Safety Reliability Research project. The objectives of this project are to identify the essential tasks of a reliability program and to evaluate the effectiveness and attributes of such a reliability program applicable to maintaining an acceptable level of safety during the operating lifetime at the plant

  11. Circuit design for reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson

    2015-01-01

    This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units.  The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.

  12. WEATHER DERIVATIVES: THE MOST COMMON PRICING AND VALUATION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available In recent years , weather derivatives have become a common tool in risk management for many sectors. This has its roots in that there is no unique way to determine de value and price solutions that would be generally approved by market-participants, like in the case of the Black-Scholes formula for options on non-dividend-paying stocks is the source for a constant debate between academics and practitioners. One look for fair and truly correct prices, while the others search every-day applicable solutions. To be honest... this is somehow like alchemy. This paper has as purpose the examination of statistical characteristics of weather data, data clearing and filling techniques. The study will be referring to temperatures because that is the best analyzed phenomenon, being the most common. This was also heavily influenced by energy companies and energetic interests, because the degree days were of interest ever before weather derivatives were put for sale. Main ideas are explaining what ways of pricing and valuation are, put into perspective for this financial instrument, taking into consideration that the Black-Scholes Model is not suitable. Also here, we will present the pros and cons that we found for each method. The methods are: the Burn analysis, the index value simulation method (IVSM, the daily simulation method (DSM.On the hole, this paper wants to shed light the weather derivatives pricing methods a mix of insurance pricing and standard financial models. At the end we will prospect the discounting problem, by means of the Consumption based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM.

  13. Modeling rock weathering in small watersheds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacheco, F.A.L.; van der Weijden, C.H.

    2014-01-01

    Many mountainous watersheds are conceived as aquifer media where multiple groundwater flow systems have developed (Tóth, 1963), and as bimodal landscapes where differential weathering of bare and soil-mantled rock has occurred (Wahrhaftig, 1965). The results of a weathering algorithm (Pacheco and

  14. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Phil; Hartmann, Jens

    2014-05-06

    Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The results show that the choice of source rocks and material comminution technique dominate the CO2 efficiency of enhanced weathering. CO2 emissions from transport amount to on average 0.5-3% of potentially sequestered CO2. The emissions of material mining and application are negligible. After accounting for all emissions, 0.5-1.0 t CO2 can be sequestered on average per tonne of rock, translating into a unit cost from 1.6 to 9.9 GJ per tonne CO2 sequestered by enhanced weathering. However, to control or reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations substantially with enhanced weathering would require very large amounts of rock. Before enhanced weathering could be applied on large scales, more research is needed to assess weathering rates, potential side effects, social acceptability, and mechanisms of governance.

  15. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  16. The Early Years: About the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2015-01-01

    Observing and documenting elements of weather teach children about using tools and their senses to learn about the environment. This column discusses resources and science topics related to students in grades preK to 2. This month's issue describes an activity where students indirectly document local weather by counting outdoor clothing types worn…

  17. Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

    2010-01-01

    Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

  18. Towards a National Space Weather Predictive Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, N. J.; Ryschkewitsch, M. G.; Merkin, V. G.; Stephens, G. K.; Gjerloev, J. W.; Barnes, R. J.; Anderson, B. J.; Paxton, L. J.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Kelly, M. A.; Berger, T. E.; Bonadonna, L. C. M. F.; Hesse, M.; Sharma, S.

    2015-12-01

    National needs in the area of space weather informational and predictive tools are growing rapidly. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socio-economic losses and impacts on our security. Future space exploration and most modern human endeavors will require major advances in physical understanding and improved transition of space research to operations. At present, only a small fraction of the latest research and development results from NASA, NOAA, NSF and DoD investments are being used to improve space weather forecasting and to develop operational tools. The power of modern research and space weather model development needs to be better utilized to enable comprehensive, timely, and accurate operational space weather tools. The mere production of space weather information is not sufficient to address the needs of those who are affected by space weather. A coordinated effort is required to support research-to-applications transition efforts and to develop the tools required those who rely on this information. In this presentation we will review the space weather system developed for the Van Allen Probes mission, together with other datasets, tools and models that have resulted from research by scientists at JHU/APL. We will look at how these, and results from future missions such as Solar Probe Plus, could be applied to support space weather applications in coordination with other community assets and capabilities.

  19. Android Smartphone Relevance to Military Weather Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    lithium -ion battery that may be replaced by the user (unlike Apple iPod Touch devices), thus spare batteries can be carried. If there is only sporadic...Android Smartphone Relevance to Military Weather Applications by David Sauter ARL-TR-5793 October 2011...Android Smartphone Relevance to Military Weather Applications David Sauter Computational and Information Sciences Directorate, ARL

  20. AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.