WorldWideScience

Sample records for reliable volcanic hazard

  1. Volcanic hazards to airports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Mayberry, G.C.; Casadevall, T.J.; Wunderman, R.

    2009-01-01

    Volcanic activity has caused significant hazards to numerous airports worldwide, with local to far-ranging effects on travelers and commerce. Analysis of a new compilation of incidents of airports impacted by volcanic activity from 1944 through 2006 reveals that, at a minimum, 101 airports in 28 countries were affected on 171 occasions by eruptions at 46 volcanoes. Since 1980, five airports per year on average have been affected by volcanic activity, which indicates that volcanic hazards to airports are not rare on a worldwide basis. The main hazard to airports is ashfall, with accumulations of only a few millimeters sufficient to force temporary closures of some airports. A substantial portion of incidents has been caused by ash in airspace in the vicinity of airports, without accumulation of ash on the ground. On a few occasions, airports have been impacted by hazards other than ash (pyroclastic flow, lava flow, gas emission, and phreatic explosion). Several airports have been affected repeatedly by volcanic hazards. Four airports have been affected the most often and likely will continue to be among the most vulnerable owing to continued nearby volcanic activity: Fontanarossa International Airport in Catania, Italy; Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Alaska, USA; Mariscal Sucre International Airport in Quito, Ecuador; and Tokua Airport in Kokopo, Papua New Guinea. The USA has the most airports affected by volcanic activity (17) on the most occasions (33) and hosts the second highest number of volcanoes that have caused the disruptions (5, after Indonesia with 7). One-fifth of the affected airports are within 30 km of the source volcanoes, approximately half are located within 150 km of the source volcanoes, and about three-quarters are within 300 km; nearly one-fifth are located more than 500 km away from the source volcanoes. The volcanoes that have caused the most impacts are Soufriere Hills on the island of Montserrat in the British West Indies

  2. Volcanic hazards and aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadevall, Thomas J.; Thompson, Theodore B.; Ewert, John W.; ,

    1996-01-01

    An aeronautical chart was developed to determine the relative proximity of volcanoes or ash clouds to the airports and flight corridors that may be affected by volcanic debris. The map aims to inform and increase awareness about the close spatial relationship between volcanoes and aviation operations. It shows the locations of the active volcanoes together with selected aeronautical navigation aids and great-circle routes. The map mitigates the threat that volcanic hazards pose to aircraft and improves aviation safety.

  3. Volcanic hazards in Central America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, William I.; Bluth, Gregg J.S.; Carr, Michael J.; Ewert, John W.; Patino, Lina C.; Vallance, James W.

    2006-01-01

    This volume is a sampling of current scientific work about volcanoes in Central America with specific application to hazards. The papers reflect a variety of international and interdisciplinary collaborations and employ new methods. The book will be of interest to a broad cross section of scientists, especially volcanologists. The volume also will interest students who aspire to work in the field of volcano hazards mitigation or who may want to work in one of Earth’s most volcanically active areas.

  4. Volcanic hazards and public response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Donald W.

    1988-05-01

    Although scientific understanding of volcanoes is advancing, eruptions continue to take a substantial toll of life and property. Some of these losses could be reduced by better advance preparation, more effective flow of information between scientists and public officials, and better understanding of volcanic behavior by all segments of the public. The greatest losses generally occur at volcanoes that erupt infrequently where people are not accustomed to dealing with them. Scientists sometimes tend to feel that the blame for poor decisions in emergency management lies chiefly with officials or journalists because of their failure to understand the threat. However, the underlying problem embraces a set of more complex issues comprising three pervasive factors. The first factor is the volcano: signals given by restless volcanoes are often ambiguous and difficult to interpret, especially at long-quiescent volcanoes. The second factor is people: people confront hazardous volcanoes in widely divergent ways, and many have difficulty in dealing with the uncertainties inherent in volcanic unrest. The third factor is the scientists: volcanologists correctly place their highest priority on monitoring and hazard assessment, but they sometimes fail to explain clearly their conclusions to responsible officials and the public, which may lead to inadequate public response. Of all groups in society, volcanologists have the clearest understanding of the hazards and vagaries of volcanic activity; they thereby assume an ethical obligation to convey effectively their knowledge to benefit all of society. If society resists, their obligation nevertheless remains. They must use the same ingenuity and creativity in dealing with information for the public that they use in solving scientific problems. When this falls short, even excellent scientific results may be nullified.

  5. Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R. I.

    2009-12-01

    Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (Colombia) killed about 25 000 people - the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant

  6. Long term volcanic hazard analysis in the Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, L.; Galindo, I.; Laín, L.; Llorente, M.; Mancebo, M. J.

    2009-04-01

    having enough quality information to map volcanic hazards and to run more reliable models of volcanic hazards, but in addition it aims to become a sharing system, improving communication between researchers, reducing redundant work and to be the reference for geological research in the Canary Islands.

  7. Coping with volcanic hazards; a global perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, R.I.

    1990-01-01

    Compared to some other natural hazards-such as floods, storms, earthquakes, landslides- volcanic hazards strike infrequently. However, in populated areas , even very small eruptions can wreak havoc and cause widespread devastation. For example, the 13 November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia ejected only about 3 percent of the volume of ash produced during the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. Yet, the mudflows triggered by this tiny eruption killed more than 25,000 people.

  8. Volcanic air pollution hazards in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, Tamar; Sutton, A. Jeff

    2017-04-20

    Noxious sulfur dioxide gas and other air pollutants emitted from Kīlauea Volcano on the Island of Hawai‘i react with oxygen, atmospheric moisture, and sunlight to produce volcanic smog (vog) and acid rain. Vog can negatively affect human health and agriculture, and acid rain can contaminate household water supplies by leaching metals from building and plumbing materials in rooftop rainwater-catchment systems. U.S. Geological Survey scientists, along with health professionals and local government officials are working together to better understand volcanic air pollution and to enhance public awareness of this hazard.

  9. Holocene volcanic geology, volcanic hazard, and risk on Taveuni, Fiji

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cronin, S.J.; Neall, V.E.

    2001-01-01

    The Holocene volcanic geology of Taveuni has been mapped in order to produce a volcanic hazard and risk assessment for the island. Taveuni is the third-largest island of the Fiji group and home to 14,500 people. At least cubic km 2.7 of olivine-alkali-basalt magma was erupted from over 100 events throughout the Holocene. Vents are concentrated along a northeast-striking rift zone that is parallel to other regional structural trends. There is an overall trend of younging southward along the rift. Holocene lavas and tephras are grouped within six newly defined eruptive periods, established on a basis of radiocarbon dating. Within these periods, 14 tephra layers, useful as local marker horizons, are recognised. At least 58% of Holocene eruptions produced lava flows, while almost all produced some tephra. Individual eruption event volumes ranged between 0.001 and cubic km 0.20 (dense rock equivalent). Many eruptions involved at least some phases of phreatic and/or phreato-magmatic activity, although dominant hydrovolcanic activity was limited to only a few events. A volcanic hazard map is presented, based on the Holocene geology map and statistical analyses of eruption recurrence. The highest levels of ground-based and near-vent hazards are concentrated along the southern portion of the island's rift axis, with the paths of initial lava flows predicted from present topography. Tephra fall hazards are based on eruption parameters interpreted from mapped Holocene tephra layers. Hawaiian explosive-style eruptions appear to be a dominant eruptive process, with prevailing low-level (<3 km) southeasterly winds dispersing most tephra to the northwestern quadrant. Vulnerable elements (population centres, infrastructure, and economy) on Taveuni have been considered in deriving a volcanic risk assessment for the island. A number of infrastructural and subdivision developments are either under way or planned for the island, driven by its highly fertile soils and availability of

  10. Communicating Volcanic Hazards in the North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehn, J.; Webley, P.; Cunningham, K. W.

    2014-12-01

    For over 25 years, effective hazard communication has been key to effective mitigation of volcanic hazards in the North Pacific. These hazards are omnipresent, with a large event happening in Alaska every few years to a decade, though in many cases can happen with little or no warning (e.g. Kasatochi and Okmok in 2008). Here a useful hazard mitigation strategy has been built on (1) a large database of historic activity from many datasets, (2) an operational alert system with graduated levels of concern, (3) scenario planning, and (4) routine checks and communication with emergency managers and the public. These baseline efforts are then enhanced in the time of crisis with coordinated talking points, targeted studies and public outreach. Scientists naturally tend to target other scientists as their audience, whereas in effective monitoring of hazards that may only occur on year to decadal timescales, details can distract from the essentially important information. Creating talking points and practice in public communications can help make hazard response a part of the culture. Promoting situational awareness and familiarity can relieve indecision and concerns at the time of a crisis.

  11. Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-10-15

    This publication provides comprehensive and updated guidance for site evaluation in relation to volcanic hazards. It includes recommendations on assessing the volcanic hazards at a nuclear installation site, in order to identify and characterize, in a comprehensive manner, all potentially hazardous phenomena that may be associated with future volcanic events. It describes how some of these volcanic phenomena may affect the acceptability of the selected site, resulting in exclusion of a site or determining the corresponding design basis parameters for the installation. This Safety Guide is applicable to both existing and new sites, and a graded approach is recommended to cater for all types of nuclear installations. Contents: 1. Introduction; 2. Overview of volcanic hazard assessment; 3. General recommendations; 4. Necessary information and investigations (database); 5. Screening of volcanic hazards; 6. Site specific volcanic hazard assessment; 7. Nuclear installations other than nuclear power plants; 8. Monitoring and preparation for response; 9. Management system for volcanic hazard assessment; Annex I: Volcanic hazard scenarios; Annex II: Worldwide sources of information.

  12. Assessment of volcanic hazards, vulnerability, risk and uncertainty (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, R. S.

    2009-12-01

    A volcanic hazard is any phenomenon that threatens communities . These hazards include volcanic events like pyroclastic flows, explosions, ash fall and lavas, and secondary effects such as lahars and landslides. Volcanic hazards are described by the physical characteristics of the phenomena, by the assessment of the areas that they are likely to affect and by the magnitude-dependent return period of events. Volcanic hazard maps are generated by mapping past volcanic events and by modelling the hazardous processes. Both these methods have their strengths and limitations and a robust map should use both approaches in combination. Past records, studied through stratigraphy, the distribution of deposits and age dating, are typically incomplete and may be biased. Very significant volcanic hazards, such as surge clouds and volcanic blasts, are not well-preserved in the geological record for example. Models of volcanic processes are very useful to help identify hazardous areas that do not have any geological evidence. They are, however, limited by simplifications and incomplete understanding of the physics. Many practical volcanic hazards mapping tools are also very empirical. Hazards maps are typically abstracted into hazards zones maps, which are some times called threat or risk maps. Their aim is to identify areas at high levels of threat and the boundaries between zones may take account of other factors such as roads, escape routes during evacuation, infrastructure. These boundaries may change with time due to new knowledge on the hazards or changes in volcanic activity levels. Alternatively they may remain static but implications of the zones may change as volcanic activity changes. Zone maps are used for planning purposes and for management of volcanic crises. Volcanic hazards maps are depictions of the likelihood of future volcanic phenomena affecting places and people. Volcanic phenomena are naturally variable, often complex and not fully understood. There are

  13. Volcanic hazards of North Island, New Zealand-overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibble, R. R.; Nairn, I. A.; Neall, V. E.

    1985-10-01

    In October 1980, a National Civil Defence Planning Committee on Volcanic Hazards was formed in New Zealand, and solicited reports on the likely areas and types of future eruptions, the risk to public safety, and the need for special precautions. Reports for eight volcanic centres were received, and made available to the authors. This paper summarises and quantifies the type and frequency of hazard, the public risk, and the possibilities for mitigation at the 7 main volcanic centres: Northland, Auckland, White Island, Okataina, Taupo, Tongariro, and Egmont. On the basis of Recent tephrostratigraphy, eruption probabilities up to 20% per century (but commonly 5%), and tephra volumes up to 100 km 3 are credible.

  14. Developing International Guidelines on Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connor, Charles

    2014-05-01

    Worldwide, tremendous progress has been made in recent decades in forecasting volcanic events, such as episodes of volcanic unrest, eruptions, and the potential impacts of eruptions. Generally these forecasts are divided into two categories. Short-term forecasts are prepared in response to unrest at volcanoes, rely on geophysical monitoring and related observations, and have the goal of forecasting events on timescales of hours to weeks to provide time for evacuation of people, shutdown of facilities, and implementation of related safety measures. Long-term forecasts are prepared to better understand the potential impacts of volcanism in the future and to plan for potential volcanic activity. Long-term forecasts are particularly useful to better understand and communicate the potential consequences of volcanic events for populated areas around volcanoes and for siting critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities. Recent work by an international team, through the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has focused on developing guidelines for long-term volcanic hazard assessments. These guidelines have now been implemented for hazard assessment for nuclear facilities in nations including Indonesia, the Philippines, Armenia, Chile, and the United States. One any time scale, all volcanic hazard assessments rely on a geologically reasonable conceptual model of volcanism. Such conceptual models are usually built upon years or decades of geological studies of specific volcanic systems, analogous systems, and development of a process-level understanding of volcanic activity. Conceptual models are used to bound potential rates of volcanic activity, potential magnitudes of eruptions, and to understand temporal and spatial trends in volcanic activity. It is these conceptual models that provide essential justification for assumptions made in statistical model development and the application of numerical models to generate quantitative forecasts. It is a

  15. Volcanic hazard studies for the Yucca Mountain project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.; Turrin, B.; Wells, S.; Perry, F.; McFadden, L.; Renault, C.E.; Champion, D.; Harrington, C.

    1989-01-01

    Volcanic hazard studies are ongoing to evaluate the risk of future volcanism with respect to siting of a repository for disposal of high-level radioactive waste at the Yucca Mountain site. Seven Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers are located a minimum distance of 12 km and a maximum distance of 47 km from the outer boundary of the exploration block. The conditional probability of disruption of a repository by future basaltic volcanism is bounded by the range of 10/sup /minus/8/ to 10/sup /minus/10/ yr/sup /minus/1/. These values are currently being reexamined based on new developments in the understanding of the evaluation of small volume, basaltic volcanic centers including: (1) Many, perhaps most, of the volcanic centers exhibit brief periods of eruptive activity separated by longer periods of inactivity. (2) The centers may be active for time spans exceeding 10 5 yrs, (3) There is a decline in the volume of eruptions of the centers through time, and (4) Small volume eruptions occurred at two of the Quaternary centers during latest Pleistocene or Holocene time. We classify the basalt centers as polycyclic, and distinguish them from polygenetic volcanoes. Polycyclic volcanism is characterized by small volume, episodic eruptions of magma of uniform composition over time spans of 10 3 to 10 5 yrs. Magma eruption rates are low and the time between eruptions exceeds the cooling time of the magma volumes. 25 refs., 2 figs

  16. Screening criteria of volcanic hazards aspect in the NPP site evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nur Siwhan

    2013-01-01

    Studies have been conducted on the completeness of regulation in Indonesia particularly on volcanic hazards aspects in the evaluation of nuclear power plant site. Volcanic hazard aspect needed to identify potential external hazards that may endanger the safety of the operation of nuclear power plants. There are four stages for evaluating volcanic hazards, which are initial assessment, characterization sources of volcanic activity in the future, screening volcanic hazards and assessment of capable volcanic hazards. This paper discuss the third stage of the general evaluation which is the screening procedure of volcanic hazards. BAPETEN Chairman Regulation No. 2 Year of 2008 has only one screening criteria for missile volcanic phenomena, so it required screening criteria for other hazard phenomena that are pyroclastic flow density; lava flows; avalanche debris materials; lava; opening hole new eruptions, volcano missile; tsunamis; ground deformation; and hydrothermal system and ground water anomaly. (author)

  17. Volcanic ash hazards and aviation risk: Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, Marianne C.; Tupper, Andrew C.

    2015-01-01

    The risks to safe and efficient air travel from volcanic-ash hazards are well documented and widely recognized. Under the aegis of the International Civil Aviation Organization, globally coordinated mitigation procedures are in place to report explosive eruptions, detect airborne ash clouds and forecast their expected movement, and issue specialized messages to warn aircraft away from hazardous airspace. This mitigation framework is based on the integration of scientific and technical capabilities worldwide in volcanology, meteorology, and atmospheric physics and chemistry. The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland, which led to a nearly week-long shutdown of air travel into and out of Europe, has prompted the aviation industry, regulators, and scientists to work more closely together to improve how hazardous airspace is defined and communicated. Volcanic ash will continue to threaten aviation and scientific research will continue to influence the risk-mitigation framework.

  18. Volcanic hazards of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory and adjacent areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hackett, W.R.; Smith, R.P.

    1994-12-01

    Potential volcanic hazards are assessed, and hazard zone maps are developed for the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) and adjacent areas. The basis of the hazards assessment and mapping is the past volcanic history of the INEL region, and the apparent similarity of INEL volcanism with equivalent, well-studied phenomena in other regions of active volcanism, particularly Hawaii and Iceland. The most significant hazards to INEL facilities are associated with basaltic volcanism, chiefly lava flows, which move slowly and mainly threaten property by inundation or burning. Related hazards are volcanic gases and tephra, and ground disturbance associated with the ascent of magma under the volcanic zones. Several volcanic zones are identified in the INEL area. These zones contain most of the volcanic vents and fissures of the region and are inferred to be the most probable sites of future INEL volcanism. Volcanic-recurrence estimates are given for each of the volcanic zones based on geochronology of the lavas, together with the results of field and petrographic investigations concerning the cogenetic relationships of INEL volcanic deposits and associated magma intrusion. Annual probabilities of basaltic volcanism within the INEL volcanic zones range from 6.2 x 10 -5 per year (average 16,000-year interval between eruptions) for the axial volcanic zone near the southern INEL boundary and the Arco volcanic-rift zone near the western INEL boundary, to 1 x 10 -5 per year (average 100,000-year interval between eruptions) for the Howe-East Butte volcanic rift zone, a geologically old and poorly defined feature of the central portion of INEL. Three volcanic hazard zone maps are developed for the INEL area: lava flow hazard zones, a tephra (volcanic ash) and gas hazard zone, and a ground-deformation hazard zone. The maps are useful in land-use planning, site selection, and safety analysis

  19. Conceptual model of volcanism and volcanic hazards of the region of Ararat valley, Armenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meliksetian, Khachatur; Connor, Charles; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Ghukasyan, Yura; Gevorgyan, Hripsime

    2015-04-01

    Armenia and the adjacent volcanically active regions in Iran, Turkey and Georgia are located in the collision zone between the Arabian and Eurasian lithospheric plates. The majority of studies of regional collision related volcanism use the model proposed by Keskin, (2003) where volcanism is driven by Neo-Tethyan slab break-off. In Armenia, >500 Quaternary-Holocene volcanoes from the Gegham, Vardenis and Syunik volcanic fields are hosted within pull-apart structures formed by active faults and their segments (Karakhanyan et al., 2002), while tectonic position of the large in volume basalt-dacite Aragats volcano and periphery volcanic plateaus is different and its position away from major fault lines necessitates more complex volcano-tectonic setup. Our detailed volcanological, petrological and geochemical studies provide insight into the nature of such volcanic activity in the region of Ararat Valley. Most magmas, such as those erupted in Armenia are volatile-poor and erupt fairly hot. Here we report newly discovered tephra sequences in Ararat valley, that were erupted from historically active Ararat stratovolcano and provide evidence for explosive eruption of young, mid K2O calc-alkaline and volatile-rich (>4.6 wt% H2O; amph-bearing) magmas. Such young eruptions, in addition to the ignimbrite and lava flow hazards from Gegham and Aragats, present a threat to the >1.4 million people (~ ½ of the population of Armenia). We will report numerical simulations of potential volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley near Yerevan that will include including tephra fallout, lava flows and opening of new vents. Connor et al. (2012) J. Applied Volcanology 1:3, 1-19; Karakhanian et al. (2002), JVGR, 113, 319-344; Keskin, M. (2003) Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 24, 8046.

  20. Spatio-volumetric hazard estimation in the Auckland volcanic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebbington, Mark S.

    2015-05-01

    The idea of a volcanic field `boundary' is prevalent in the literature, but ill-defined at best. We use the elliptically constrained vents in the Auckland Volcanic Field to examine how spatial intensity models can be tested to assess whether they are consistent with such features. A means of modifying the anisotropic Gaussian kernel density estimate to reflect the existence of a `hard' boundary is then suggested, and the result shown to reproduce the observed elliptical distribution. A new idea, that of a spatio-volumetric model, is introduced as being more relevant to hazard in a monogenetic volcanic field than the spatiotemporal hazard model due to the low temporal rates in volcanic fields. Significant dependencies between the locations and erupted volumes of the observed centres are deduced, and expressed in the form of a spatially-varying probability density. In the future, larger volumes are to be expected in the `gaps' between existing centres, with the location of the greatest forecast volume lying in the shipping channel between Rangitoto and Castor Bay. The results argue for tectonic control over location and magmatic control over erupted volume. The spatio-volumetric model is consistent with the hypothesis of a flat elliptical area in the mantle where tensional stresses, related to the local tectonics and geology, allow decompressional melting.

  1. The Earth System Science Pathfinder VOLCAM Volcanic Hazard Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krueger, Arlin J.

    1999-01-01

    The VOLCAM mission is planned for research on volcanic eruptions and as a demonstration of a satellite system for measuring the location and density of volcanic eruption clouds for use in mitigating hazards to aircraft by the operational air traffic control systems. A requirement for 15 minute time resolution is met by flight as payloads of opportunity on geostationary satellites. Volcanic sulfur dioxide and ash are detected using techniques that have been developed from polar orbiting TOMS (UV) and AVHRR (IR) data. Seven band UV and three band IR filter wheel cameras are designed for continuous observation of the full disk of the earth with moderate (10 - 20 km) ground resolution. This resolution can be achieved with small, low cost instruments but is adequate for discrimination of ash and sulfur dioxide in the volcanic clouds from meteorological clouds and ozone. The false alarm rate is small through use of sulfur dioxide as a unique tracer of volcanic clouds. The UV band wavelengths are optimized to detect very small sulfur dioxide amounts that are present in pre-eruptive outgassing of volcanoes. The system is also capable of tracking dust and smoke clouds, and will be used to infer winds at tropopause level from the correlation of total ozone with potential vorticity.

  2. Video Games in Volcanic Hazard Communications: Methods & Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul; Stewart, Iain

    2016-04-01

    Educational outreach plays a vital role in improving the resilience of vulnerable populations at risk from natural disasters. Currently, that activity is undertaken in many guises including the distribution of leaflets and posters, maps, presentations, education sessions and through radio and TV broadcasts. Such tried-and-tested communication modes generally target traditional stakeholder groups, but it is becoming increasingly important to engage with the new generation of learners who, due to advancements in technology, obtain information in ways different to their predecessors. That new generation is defined by a technological way of life and it remains a challenge to keep them motivated. On the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, the La Soufriere Volcano lies in quiescence since the last eruption in 1979. Since then, an entire generation - over 56% of the population (Worldbank, 2015) - has little or no direct experience of a volcanic eruption. The island experiences, more frequently, other hazards (hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes landsliding), such that disaster preparedness measures give less priority to volcanic threats, which are deemed to pose less of a risk. With no accurate predictions to warn of the next eruption, it is especially important to educate residents about the potential of future volcanic hazards on the island, and to motivate them to prepare to mitigate their risk. This research critically examines the application of video games in supporting and enhancing existing public education and outreach programmes for volcanic hazards. St. Vincent's Volcano is a computer game designed to improve awareness and knowledge of the eruptive phenomena from La Soufriere that could pose a threat to residents. Within an interactive and immersive environment, players become acquainted with a 3D model of St. Vincent together with an overlay of the established volcanic hazard map (Robertson, 2005). Players are able to view visualisations of two historical

  3. Volcanic hazard maps of the Nevado del Ruiz volcano, Colombia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra, Eduardo; Cepeda, Hector

    1990-07-01

    Although the potential hazards associated with an eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano were known to civil authorities before the catastrophic eruption there in November 1985, their low perception of risk and the long quiescent period since the last eruption (140 years), caused them to wait for stronger activity before developing an eruption alert system. Unfortunately, the eruption occurred suddenly after a period of relative quiet, and as a result more than 25,000 people were killed. Although it was accurate and reasonably comprehensive, the hazard map that existed before the eruption was poorly understood by the authorities and even less so by the general population, because the scientific terminology and probabilistic approach to natural hazards were unfamiliar to many of them. This confusion was shared by the communication media, which at critical times placed undue emphasis on the possibility of lava flows rather than on the more imminent threat from mudflows, in keeping with the popular but often inaccurate perception of volcanic eruptions. This work presents an updated hazard map of Nevado del Ruiz that combines information on various hazardous phenomena with their relative probability of occurrence in order to depict numerical "hazard levels" that are easily comprehensible to nonspecialists and therefore less susceptible to misinterpretation. The scale of relative risk is arbitrary, ranging from five to one, and is intended to provide an intuitive indication of danger to people, property and crops. The map is meant to facilitate emergency preparedness and management by political and civil authorities, to educate the public concerning volcanic hazards and to assist in land-use planning decisions.

  4. Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, H. J.; Lee, S.; Choi, S. H.; Yun, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural Fragility Estimates Subjected to Volcanic Ash Fall Hazards Hee Jung Ham1, Seung-Hun Choi1, Woo-Seok Yun1, Sungsu Lee2 1Department of Architectural Engineering, Kangwon National University, Korea 2Division of Civil Engineering, Chungbuk National University, Korea ABSTRACT In this study, fragility functions are developed to estimate expected volcanic ash damages of the agricultural sector in Korea. The fragility functions are derived from two approaches: 1) empirical approach based on field observations of impacts to agriculture from the 2006 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia and 2) the FOSM (first-order second-moment) analytical approach based on distribution and thickness of volcanic ash observed from the 1980 eruption of Mt. Saint Helens and agricultural facility specifications in Korea. Fragility function to each agricultural commodity class is presented by a cumulative distribution function of the generalized extreme value distribution. Different functions are developed to estimate production losses from outdoor and greenhouse farming. Seasonal climate influences vulnerability of each agricultural crop and is found to be a crucial component in determining fragility of agricultural commodities to an ash fall. In the study, the seasonality coefficient is established as a multiplier of fragility function to consider the seasonal vulnerability. Yields of the different agricultural commodities are obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service to create a baseline for future agricultural volcanic loss estimation. Numerically simulated examples of scenario ash fall events at Mt. Baekdu volcano are utilized to illustrate the application of the developed fragility functions. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant 'Development of Advanced Volcanic Disaster Response System considering Potential Volcanic Risk around Korea' [MPSS-NH-2015-81] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, Ministry of Public Safety and Security of

  5. The Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System for the Online Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation of Quaternary Volcanoes in the World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shinji Takarada

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic hazards assessment tools are essential for risk mitigation of volcanic activities. A number of offline volcanic hazard assessment tools have been provided, but in most cases, they require relatively complex installation procedure and usage. This situation causes limited usage of volcanic hazard assessment tools among volcanologists and volcanic hazards communities. In addition, volcanic eruption chronology and detailed database of each volcano in the world are essential key information for volcanic hazard assessment, but most of them are isolated and not connected to and with each other. The Volcanic Hazard Assessment Support System aims to implement a user-friendly, WebGIS-based, open-access online system for potential hazards assessment and risk-mitigation of Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The users can get up-to-date information such as eruption chronology and geophysical monitoring data of a specific volcano using the direct link system to major volcano databases on the system. Currently, the system provides 3 simple, powerful and notable deterministic modeling simulation codes of volcanic processes, such as Energy Cone, Titan2D and Tephra2. The system provides deterministic tools because probabilistic assessment tools are normally much more computationally demanding. By using the volcano hazard assessment system, the area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions in any location near the volcano can be estimated using numerical simulations. The system is being implemented using the ASTER Global DEM covering 2790 Quaternary volcanoes in the world. The system can be used to evaluate volcanic hazards and move this toward risk-potential by overlaying the estimated distribution of volcanic gravity flows or tephra falls on major roads, houses and evacuation areas using the GIS-enabled systems. The system is developed for all users in the world who need volcanic hazards assessment tools.

  6. Reliability of lifeline networks under seismic hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selcuk, A. Sevtap; Yuecemen, M. Semih

    1999-01-01

    Lifelines, such as pipelines, transportation, communication and power transmission systems, are networks which extend spatially over large geographical regions. The quantification of the reliability (survival probability) of a lifeline under seismic threat requires attention, as the proper functioning of these systems during or after a destructive earthquake is vital. In this study, a lifeline is idealized as an equivalent network with the capacity of its elements being random and spatially correlated and a comprehensive probabilistic model for the assessment of the reliability of lifelines under earthquake loads is developed. The seismic hazard that the network is exposed to is described by a probability distribution derived by using the past earthquake occurrence data. The seismic hazard analysis is based on the 'classical' seismic hazard analysis model with some modifications. An efficient algorithm developed by Yoo and Deo (Yoo YB, Deo N. A comparison of algorithms for terminal pair reliability. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 1988; 37: 210-215) is utilized for the evaluation of the network reliability. This algorithm eliminates the CPU time and memory capacity problems for large networks. A comprehensive computer program, called LIFEPACK is coded in Fortran language in order to carry out the numerical computations. Two detailed case studies are presented to show the implementation of the proposed model

  7. Integrating Volcanic Hazard Data in a Systematic Approach to Develop Volcanic Hazard Maps in the Lesser Antilles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan M. Lindsay

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available We report on the process of generating the first suite of integrated volcanic hazard zonation maps for the islands of Dominica, Grenada (including Kick ‘em Jenny and Ronde/Caille, Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts, Saint Lucia, and St Vincent in the Lesser Antilles. We developed a systematic approach that accommodated the range in prior knowledge of the volcanoes in the region. A first-order hazard assessment for each island was used to develop one or more scenario(s of likely future activity, for which scenario-based hazard maps were generated. For the most-likely scenario on each island we also produced a poster-sized integrated volcanic hazard zonation map, which combined the individual hazardous phenomena depicted in the scenario-based hazard maps into integrated hazard zones. We document the philosophy behind the generation of this suite of maps, and the method by which hazard information was combined to create integrated hazard zonation maps, and illustrate our approach through a case study of St. Vincent. We also outline some of the challenges we faced using this approach, and the lessons we have learned by observing how stakeholders have interacted with the maps over the past ~10 years. Based on our experience, we recommend that future map makers involve stakeholders in the entire map generation process, especially when making design choices such as type of base map, use of colour and gradational boundaries, and indeed what to depict on the map. We also recommend careful consideration of how to evaluate and depict offshore hazard of island volcanoes, and recommend computer-assisted modelling of all phenomena to generate more realistic hazard footprints. Finally, although our systematic approach to integrating individual hazard data into zones generally worked well, we suggest that a better approach might be to treat the integration of hazards on a case-by-case basis to ensure the final product meets map users' needs. We hope that

  8. Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Bird

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP, in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in

  9. A Conceptual Model of Future Volcanism at Medicine Lake Volcano, California - With an Emphasis on Understanding Local Volcanic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molisee, D. D.; Germa, A.; Charbonnier, S. J.; Connor, C.

    2017-12-01

    Medicine Lake Volcano (MLV) is most voluminous of all the Cascade Volcanoes ( 600 km3), and has the highest eruption frequency after Mount St. Helens. Detailed mapping by USGS colleagues has shown that during the last 500,000 years MLV erupted >200 lava flows ranging from basalt to rhyolite, produced at least one ash-flow tuff, one caldera forming event, and at least 17 scoria cones. Underlying these units are 23 additional volcanic units that are considered to be pre-MLV in age. Despite the very high likelihood of future eruptions, fewer than 60 of 250 mapped volcanic units (MLV and pre-MLV) have been dated reliably. A robust set of eruptive ages is key to understanding the history of the MLV system and to forecasting the future behavior of the volcano. The goals of this study are to 1) obtain additional radiometric ages from stratigraphically strategic units; 2) recalculate recurrence rate of eruptions based on an augmented set of radiometric dates; and 3) use lava flow, PDC, ash fall-out, and lahar computational simulation models to assess the potential effects of discrete volcanic hazards locally and regionally. We identify undated target units (units in key stratigraphic positions to provide maximum chronological insight) and obtain field samples for radiometric dating (40Ar/39Ar and K/Ar) and petrology. Stratigraphic and radiometric data are then used together in the Volcano Event Age Model (VEAM) to identify changes in the rate and type of volcanic eruptions through time, with statistical uncertainty. These newly obtained datasets will be added to published data to build a conceptual model of volcanic hazards at MLV. Alternative conceptual models, for example, may be that the rate of MLV lava flow eruptions are nonstationary in time and/or space and/or volume. We explore the consequences of these alternative models on forecasting future eruptions. As different styles of activity have different impacts, we estimate these potential effects using simulation

  10. Volcanic unrest and hazard communication in Long Valley Volcanic Region, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, David P.; Mangan, Margaret T.; McNutt, Stephen R.

    2017-01-01

    The onset of volcanic unrest in Long Valley Caldera, California, in 1980 and the subsequent fluctuations in unrest levels through May 2016 illustrate: (1) the evolving relations between scientists monitoring the unrest and studying the underlying tectonic/magmatic processes and their implications for geologic hazards, and (2) the challenges in communicating the significance of the hazards to the public and civil authorities in a mountain resort setting. Circumstances special to this case include (1) the sensitivity of an isolated resort area to media hype of potential high-impact volcanic and earthquake hazards and its impact on potential recreational visitors and the local economy, (2) a small permanent population (~8000), which facilitates face-to-face communication between scientists monitoring the hazard, civil authorities, and the public, and (3) the relatively frequent turnover of people in positions of civil authority, which requires a continuing education effort on the nature of caldera unrest and related hazards. Because of delays associated with communication protocols between the State and Federal governments during the onset of unrest, local civil authorities and the public first learned that the U.S. Geological Survey was about to release a notice of potential volcanic hazards associated with earthquake activity and 25-cm uplift of the resurgent dome in the center of the caldera through an article in the Los Angeles Times published in May 1982. The immediate reaction was outrage and denial. Gradual acceptance that the hazard was real required over a decade of frequent meetings between scientists and civil authorities together with public presentations underscored by frequently felt earthquakes and the onset of magmatic CO2 emissions in 1990 following a 11-month long earthquake swarm beneath Mammoth Mountain on the southwest rim of the caldera. Four fatalities, one on 24 May 1998 and three on 6 April 2006, underscored the hazard posed by the CO2

  11. UK Hazard Assessment for a Laki-type Volcanic Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witham, Claire; Felton, Chris; Daud, Sophie; Aspinall, Willy; Braban, Christine; Loughlin, Sue; Hort, Matthew; Schmidt, Anja; Vieno, Massimo

    2014-05-01

    Following the impacts of the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in 2010, two types of volcanic eruption have been added to the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies. One of these, a large gas-rich volcanic eruption, was identified as a high impact natural hazard, one of the three highest priority natural hazards faced by the UK. This eruption scenario is typified by the Laki eruption in Iceland in 1783-1784. The Civil Contingency Secretariat (CCS) of the UK's Cabinet Office, responsible for Civil Protection in the UK, has since been working on quantifying the risk and better understanding its potential impacts. This involves cross-cutting work across UK Government departments and the wider scientific community in order to identify the capabilities needed to respond to an effusive eruption, to exercise the response and develop increased resilience where possible. As part of its current work, CCS has been working closely with the UK Met Office and other UK agencies and academics (represented by the co-authors and others) to generate and assess the impacts of a 'reasonable worst case scenario', which can be used for decision making and preparation in advance of an eruption. Information from the literature and the findings of an expert elicitation have been synthesised to determine appropriate eruption source term parameters and associated uncertainties. This scenario is then being used to create a limited ensemble of model simulations of the dispersion and chemical conversion of the emissions of volcanic gases during such an eruption. The UK Met Office's NAME Lagrangian dispersion model and the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology's EMEP4UK Eulerian model are both being used. Modelling outputs will address the likelihood of near-surface concentrations of sulphur and halogen species being above specified health thresholds. Concentrations at aviation relevant altitudes will also be evaluated, as well as the effects of acid deposition of volcanic species on

  12. Volcanic Hazard Assessments for Nuclear Installations: Methods and Examples in Site Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-07-01

    To provide guidance on the protection of nuclear installations against the effects of volcanoes, the IAEA published in 2012 IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21, Volcanic Hazards in Site Evaluation for Nuclear Installations. SSG-21 addresses hazards relating to volcanic phenomena, and provides recommendations and general guidance for evaluation of these hazards. Unlike seismic hazard assessments, models for volcanic hazard assessment have not undergone decades of review, evaluation and testing for suitability in evaluating hazards at proposed nuclear installations. Currently in volcanology, scientific developments and detailed methodologies to model volcanic phenomena are evolving rapidly.This publication provides information on detailed methodologies and examples in the application of volcanic hazard assessment to site evaluation for nuclear installations, thereby addressing the recommendations in SSG-21. Although SSG-21 develops a logical framework for conducting a volcanic hazard assessment, this publication demonstrates the practicability of evaluating the recommendations in SSG-21 through a systematic volcanic hazard assessment and examples from Member States. The results of this hazard assessment can be used to derive the appropriate design bases and operational considerations for specific nuclear installations

  13. Quantitative physical models of volcanic phenomena for hazards assessment of critical infrastructures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    Volcanic hazards may have destructive effects on economy, transport, and natural environments at both local and regional scale. Hazardous phenomena include pyroclastic density currents, tephra fall, gas emissions, lava flows, debris flows and avalanches, and lahars. Volcanic hazards assessment is based on available information to characterize potential volcanic sources in the region of interest and to determine whether specific volcanic phenomena might reach a given site. Volcanic hazards assessment is focussed on estimating the distances that volcanic phenomena could travel from potential sources and their intensity at the considered site. Epistemic and aleatory uncertainties strongly affect the resulting hazards assessment. Within the context of critical infrastructures, volcanic eruptions are rare natural events that can create severe hazards. In addition to being rare events, evidence of many past volcanic eruptions is poorly preserved in the geologic record. The models used for describing the impact of volcanic phenomena generally represent a range of model complexities, from simplified physics based conceptual models to highly coupled thermo fluid dynamical approaches. Modelling approaches represent a hierarchy of complexity, which reflects increasing requirements for well characterized data in order to produce a broader range of output information. In selecting models for the hazard analysis related to a specific phenomenon, questions that need to be answered by the models must be carefully considered. Independently of the model, the final hazards assessment strongly depends on input derived from detailed volcanological investigations, such as mapping and stratigraphic correlations. For each phenomenon, an overview of currently available approaches for the evaluation of future hazards will be presented with the aim to provide a foundation for future work in developing an international consensus on volcanic hazards assessment methods.

  14. Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, Laura; Martí, Joan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2017-07-01

    Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730-1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

  15. Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Becerril

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (>  1.5 km3 DRE and longest (6 years eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736, on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years. This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.

  16. Volcanic sulfur dioxide index and volcanic explosivity index inferred from eruptive volume of volcanoes in Jeju Island, Korea: application to volcanic hazard mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Bokyun; Yun, Sung-Hyo

    2016-04-01

    Jeju Island located in the southwestern part of Korea Peninsula is a volcanic island composed of lavaflows, pyroclasts, and around 450 monogenetic volcanoes. The volcanic activity of the island commenced with phreatomagmatic eruptions under subaqueous condition ca. 1.8-2.0 Ma and lasted until ca. 1,000 year BP. For evaluating volcanic activity of the most recently erupted volcanoes with reported age, volcanic explosivity index (VEI) and volcanic sulfur dioxide index (VSI) of three volcanoes (Ilchulbong tuff cone, Songaksan tuff ring, and Biyangdo scoria cone) are inferred from their eruptive volumes. The quantity of eruptive materials such as tuff, lavaflow, scoria, and so on, is calculated using a model developed in Auckland Volcanic Field which has similar volcanic setting to the island. The eruptive volumes of them are 11,911,534 m3, 24,987,557 m3, and 9,652,025 m3, which correspond to VEI of 3, 3, and 2, respectively. According to the correlation between VEI and VSI, the average quantity of SO2 emission during an eruption with VEI of 3 is 2-8 × 103 kiloton considering that the island was formed under intraplate tectonic setting. Jeju Island was regarded as an extinct volcano, however, several studies have recently reported some volcanic eruption ages within 10,000 year BP owing to the development in age dating technique. Thus, the island is a dormant volcano potentially implying high probability to erupt again in the future. The volcanoes might have explosive eruptions (vulcanian to plinian) with the possibility that SO2 emitted by the eruption reaches stratosphere causing climate change due to backscattering incoming solar radiation, increase in cloud reflectivity, etc. Consequently, recommencement of volcanic eruption in the island is able to result in serious volcanic hazard and this study provides fundamental and important data for volcanic hazard mitigation of East Asia as well as the island. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This research was supported by a grant [MPSS

  17. Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, L.; Glicken, H.; Ui, T.

    1987-01-01

    Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km3 in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50-100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500-1500 km2. Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792. The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km2 at velocities exceeding 100 m s-1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny. Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms-1 and travel tens of

  18. Integrating geological and geophysical data to improve probabilistic hazard forecasting of Arabian Shield volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Melody G.; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Moufti, Mohammed R.

    2016-02-01

    During probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis of volcanic fields, a greater variety of spatial data on crustal features should help improve forecasts of future vent locations. Without further examination, however, geophysical estimations of crustal or other features may be non-informative. Here, we present a new, robust, non-parametric method to quantitatively determine the existence of any relationship between natural phenomena (e.g., volcanic eruptions) and a variety of geophysical data. This provides a new validation tool for incorporating a range of potentially hazard-diagnostic observable data into recurrence rate estimates and hazard analyses. Through this study it is shown that the location of Cenozoic volcanic fields across the Arabian Shield appear to be related to locations of major and minor faults, at higher elevations, and regions where gravity anomaly values were between - 125 mGal and 0 mGal. These findings support earlier hypotheses that the western shield uplift was related to Cenozoic volcanism. At the harrat (volcanic field)-scale, higher vent density regions are related to both elevation and gravity anomaly values. A by-product of this work is the collection of existing data on the volcanism across Saudi Arabia, with all vent locations provided herein, as well as updated maps for Harrats Kura, Khaybar, Ithnayn, Kishb, and Rahat. This work also highlights the potential dangers of assuming relationships between observed data and the occurrence of a natural phenomenon without quantitative assessment or proper consideration of the effects of data resolution.

  19. Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Vaniman, D.T.; Carr, W.J.

    1983-03-01

    Volcanism studies of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region are concerned with hazards of future volcanism with respect to underground disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The hazards of silicic volcanism are judged to be negligible; hazards of basaltic volcanism are judged through research approaches combining hazard appraisal and risk assessment. The NTS region is cut obliquely by a N-NE trending belt of volcanism. This belt developed about 8 Myr ago following cessation of silicic volcanism and contemporaneous with migration of basaltic activity toward the southwest margin of the Great Basin. Two types of fields are present in the belt: (1) large-volume, long-lived basalt and local rhyolite fields with numerous eruptive centers and (2) small-volume fields formed by scattered basaltic scoria cones. Late Cenozoic basalts of the NTS region belong to the second field type. Monogenetic basalt centers of this region were formed mostly by Strombolian eruptions; Surtseyean activity has been recognized at three centers. Geochemically, the basalts of the NTS region are classified as straddle A-type basalts of the alkalic suite. Petrological studies indicate a volumetric dominance of evolved hawaiite magmas. Trace- and rare-earth-element abundances of younger basalt ( - 8 to 10 - 10 as calculated for a 1-yr period. Potential disruptive and dispersal effects of magmatic penetration of a repository are controlled primarily by the geometry of basalt feeder systems, the mechanism of waste incorporation in magma, and Strombolian eruption processes

  20. Preliminary volcanic hazards evaluation for Los Alamos National Laboratory Facilities and Operations : current state of knowledge and proposed path forward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keating, Gordon N.; Schultz-Fellenz, Emily S.; Miller, Elizabeth D.

    2010-09-01

    The integration of available information on the volcanic history of the region surrounding Los Alamos National Laboratory indicates that the Laboratory is at risk from volcanic hazards. Volcanism in the vicinity of the Laboratory is unlikely within the lifetime of the facility (ca. 50–100 years) but cannot be ruled out. This evaluation provides a preliminary estimate of recurrence rates for volcanic activity. If further assessment of the hazard is deemed beneficial to reduce risk uncertainty, the next step would be to convene a formal probabilistic volcanic hazards assessment.

  1. Combining probabilistic hazard assessment with cost-benefit analysis to support decision making in a volcanic crisis from the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Jolly, Gill; Lindsay, Jan; Howe, Tracy; Marzocchi, Warner

    2010-05-01

    One of the main challenges of modern volcanology is to provide the public with robust and useful information for decision-making in land-use planning and in emergency management. From the scientific point of view, this translates into reliable and quantitative long- and short-term volcanic hazard assessment and eruption forecasting. Because of the complexity in characterizing volcanic events, and of the natural variability of volcanic processes, a probabilistic approach is more suitable than deterministic modeling. In recent years, two probabilistic codes have been developed for quantitative short- and long-term eruption forecasting (BET_EF) and volcanic hazard assessment (BET_VH). Both of them are based on a Bayesian Event Tree, in which volcanic events are seen as a chain of logical steps of increasing detail. At each node of the tree, the probability is computed by taking into account different sources of information, such as geological and volcanological models, past occurrences, expert opinion and numerical modeling of volcanic phenomena. Since it is a Bayesian tool, the output probability is not a single number, but a probability distribution accounting for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. In this study, we apply BET_VH in order to quantify the long-term volcanic hazard due to base surge invasion in the region around Auckland, New Zealand's most populous city. Here, small basaltic eruptions from monogenetic cones pose a considerable risk to the city in case of phreatomagmatic activity: evidence for base surges are not uncommon in deposits from past events. Currently, we are particularly focussing on the scenario simulated during Exercise Ruaumoko, a national disaster exercise based on the build-up to an eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field. Based on recent papers by Marzocchi and Woo, we suggest a possible quantitative strategy to link probabilistic scientific output and Boolean decision making. It is based on cost-benefit analysis, in which all costs

  2. Status of volcanic hazard studies for the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Wohletz, K.H.; Vaniman, D.T.; Gladney, E.; Bower, N.

    1986-01-01

    Volcanic hazard investigations during FY 1984 focused on five topics: the emplacement mechanism of shallow basalt intrusions, geochemical trends through time for volcanic fields of the Death Valley-Pancake Range volcanic zone, the possibility of bimodal basalt-rhyolite volcanism, the age and process of enrichment for incompatible elements in young basalts of the Nevada Test Site (NTS) region, and the possibility of hydrovolcanic activity. The stress regime of Yucca Mountain may favor formation of shallow basalt intrusions. However, combined field and drill-hole studies suggest shallow basalt intrusions are rare in the geologic record of the southern Great Basin. The geochemical patterns of basaltic volcanism through time in the NTS region provide no evidence for evolution toward a large-volume volcanic field or increases in future rates of volcanism. Existing data are consistent with a declining volcanic system comparable to the late stages of the southern Death Valley volcanic field. The hazards of bimodal volcanism in this area are judged to be low. The source of a 6-Myr pumice discovered in alluvial deposits of Crater Flat has not been found. Geochemical studies show that the enrichment of trace elements in the younger rift basalts must be related to an enrichment of their mantle source rocks. This geochemical enrichment event, which may have been metasomatic alteration, predates the basalts of the silicic episode and is, therefore, not a young event. Studies of crater dimensions of hydrovolcanic landforms indicate that the worst case scenario (exhumation of a repository at Yucca Mountain by hydrovolcanic explosions) is unlikely. Theoretical models of melt-water vapor explosions, particularly the thermal detonation model, suggest hydrovolcanic explosion are possible at Yucca Mountain. 80 refs., 21 figs., 5 tabs

  3. Assessment of Muria geochemistry evolution and related to volcanic hazard to NPP site at Muria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basuki Wibowo; June Mellawati; Heni Susiati

    2011-01-01

    Study of geochemistry evolution aspect in Mt. Muria cycle to predict the level of volcanic hazards posed in the future on Muria nuclear power plant site was conducted. The purpose of the study was to determine the Muria geochemistry condition, tectonic patterns and to predict the level of volcanic hazard in the future on Muria nuclear power plant sites. The methodology used is the collection of secondary data on the complex geochemical conditions Muria volcanic in their life cycle, perform correlation geochemical cycle in its path towards conditions that most likely experienced tectonic, volcanic, and interpretation of the hazard posed. The study shows that geochemical conditions in Muria Volcano complex composed of potassium, low-yield product predicted high-temperature molten magma (decompression) and high potassium levels (compression). Pattern of tectonic decompression geochemical conditions associated with low potassium in Muria old, while the pattern of tectonic compression geochemical conditions associated with high potassium in young Muria. The level of volcanic hazard in the future indicated by the nature of non capable of Mt. Muria. (author)

  4. Long-term volcanic hazard assessment on El Hierro (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becerril, L.; Bartolini, S.; Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.; Morales, J. M.; Galindo, I.

    2014-07-01

    Long-term hazard assessment, one of the bastions of risk-mitigation programs, is required for land-use planning and for developing emergency plans. To ensure quality and representative results, long-term volcanic hazard assessment requires several sequential steps to be completed, which include the compilation of geological and volcanological information, the characterisation of past eruptions, spatial and temporal probabilistic studies, and the simulation of different eruptive scenarios. Despite being a densely populated active volcanic region that receives millions of visitors per year, no systematic hazard assessment has ever been conducted on the Canary Islands. In this paper we focus our attention on El Hierro, the youngest of the Canary Islands and the most recently affected by an eruption. We analyse the past eruptive activity to determine the spatial and temporal probability, and likely style of a future eruption on the island, i.e. the where, when and how. By studying the past eruptive behaviour of the island and assuming that future eruptive patterns will be similar, we aim to identify the most likely volcanic scenarios and corresponding hazards, which include lava flows, pyroclastic fallout and pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Finally, we estimate their probability of occurrence. The end result, through the combination of the most probable scenarios (lava flows, pyroclastic density currents and ashfall), is the first qualitative integrated volcanic hazard map of the island.

  5. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stirling, Mark; Bebbington, Mark; Brenna, Marco; Cronin, Shane; Christophersen, Annemarie; Deligne, Natalia; Hurst, Tony; Jolly, Art; Jolly, Gill; Kennedy, Ben; Kereszturi, Gabor; Lindsay, Jan; Neall, Vince; Procter, Jonathan; Rhoades, David; Scott, Brad; Shane, Phil; Smith, Ian; Smith, Richard; Wang, Ting; White, James D. L.; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Wilson, Tom

    2017-06-01

    We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g. short-term forecasting). The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  6. Conceptual Development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Stirling

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We provide a synthesis of a workshop held in February 2016 to define the goals, challenges and next steps for developing a national probabilistic volcanic hazard model for New Zealand. The workshop involved volcanologists, statisticians, and hazards scientists from GNS Science, Massey University, University of Otago, Victoria University of Wellington, University of Auckland, and University of Canterbury. We also outline key activities that will develop the model components, define procedures for periodic update of the model, and effectively articulate the model to end-users and stakeholders. The development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model is a formidable task that will require long-term stability in terms of team effort, collaboration, and resources. Development of the model in stages or editions that are modular will make the process a manageable one that progressively incorporates additional volcanic hazards over time, and additional functionalities (e.g., short-term forecasting. The first edition is likely to be limited to updating and incorporating existing ashfall hazard models, with the other hazards associated with lahar, pyroclastic density currents, lava flow, ballistics, debris avalanche, and gases/aerosols being considered in subsequent updates.

  7. Combining Geological and Geophysical Data in Volcanic Hazard Estimation for Dominica, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, O.; Latchman, J. L.; Connor, C.; Malservisi, R.; Connor, L.

    2014-12-01

    Risk posed by volcanic eruptions are generally quantified in a few ways; in the short term geophysical data such as seismic activity or ground deformation are used to assess the state of volcanic unrest while statistical approaches such as spatial density estimates are used for long term hazard assessment. Spatial density estimates have been used in a number of monogenetic volcanic fields for hazard map generation and utilize the age, location and volumes of previous eruptions to calculate the probability of a new event occurring at a given location within this field. In a previously unpublished study, spatial density estimates of the Lesser Antilles volcanic arc showed the island of Dominica to have the highest likelihood of future vent formation. In this current study, this technique was used in combination with relocated seismic events occurring beneath Dominica within the last ~ 20 years as well as InSAR images of ground deformation to generate a hazard map which not only takes into consideration the past events but also the current state of unrest. Here, geophysical data serve as a weighting factor in the estimates with those centers showing more vigorous activity receiving stronger favorability in the assessment for future activity. In addition to this weighting, the bandwidth utilized in the 2D-radially symmetric kernel density function was optimized using the SAMSE method so as to find the value which best minimizes the error in the estimate. The end results of this study are dynamic volcanic hazards maps which will be readily updatable as changes in volcanic unrest occurs within the system.

  8. Volcanic hazard map for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asahina, T.; Navarro, M.; Strauch, W.

    2007-05-01

    A volcano hazard study was conducted for Telica, Cerro Negro and El Hoyo volcanoes, Nicaragua, based on geological and volcanological field investigations, air photo analyses, and numerical eruption simulation. These volcanoes are among the most active volcanoes of the country. This study was realized 2004-2006 through technical cooperation of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) with INETER, upon the request of the Government of Nicaragua. The resulting volcanic hazard map on 1:50,000 scale displays the hazards of lava flow, pyroclastic flows, lahars, tephra fall, volcanic bombs for an area of 1,300 square kilometers. The map and corresponding GIS coverage was handed out to Central, Departmental and Municipal authorities for their use and is included in a National GIS on Georisks developed and maintained by INETER.

  9. Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waters, R.D.

    1993-05-01

    Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption

  10. Reliability analysis of common hazardous waste treatment processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waters, Robert D. [Vanderbilt Univ., Nashville, TN (United States)

    1993-05-01

    Five hazardous waste treatment processes are analyzed probabilistically using Monte Carlo simulation to elucidate the relationships between process safety factors and reliability levels. The treatment processes evaluated are packed tower aeration, reverse osmosis, activated sludge, upflow anaerobic sludge blanket, and activated carbon adsorption.

  11. Hazard map for volcanic ballistic impacts at El Chichón volcano (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alatorre-Ibarguengoitia, Miguel; Ramos-Hernández, Silvia; Jiménez-Aguilar, Julio

    2014-05-01

    The 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano in southeastern Mexico had a strong social and environmental impact. The eruption resulted in the worst volcanic disaster in the recorded history of Mexico, causing about 2,000 casualties, displacing thousands, and producing severe economic losses. Even when some villages were relocated after the 1982 eruption, many people still live and work in the vicinities of the volcano and may be affected in the case of a new eruption. The hazard map of El Chichón volcano (Macías et al., 2008) comprises pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, lahars and ash fall but not ballistic projectiles, which represent an important threat to people, infrastructure and vegetation in the case of an eruption. In fact, the fatalities reported in the first stage of the 1982 eruption were caused by roof collapse induced by ashfall and lithic ballistic projectiles. In this study, a general methodology to delimit the hazard zones for volcanic ballistic projectiles during volcanic eruptions is applied to El Chichón volcano. Different scenarios are defined based on the past activity of the volcano and parameterized by considering the maximum kinetic energy associated with ballistic projectiles ejected during previous eruptions. A ballistic model is used to reconstruct the "launching" kinetic energy of the projectiles observed in the field. The maximum ranges expected for the ballistics in the different explosive scenarios defined for El Chichón volcano are presented in a ballistic hazard map which complements the published hazard map. These maps assist the responsible authorities to plan the definition and mitigation of restricted areas during volcanic crises.

  12. UNCOVERING BURIED VOLCANOES: NEW DATA FOR PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    F.V. Perry

    2005-01-01

    Basaltic volcanism poses a potential hazard to the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository because multiple episodes of basaltic volcanism have occurred in the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) in the past 11 Ma. Intervals between eruptive episodes average about 1 Ma. Three episodes have occurred in the Quaternary at approximately 1.1 Ma (5 volcanoes), 350 ka (2 volcanoes), and 80 ka (1 volcano). Because Yucca Mountain lies within the Basin and Range Province, a significant portion of the pre-Quaternary volcanic history of the YMR may be buried in alluvial-filled basins. An exceptionally high-resolution aeromagnetic survey and subsequent drilling program sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) began in 2004 and is gathering data that will enhance understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of Pliocene and Miocene volcanism in the region (Figure 1). DOE has convened a ten-member expert panel of earth scientists that will use the information gathered to update probabilistic volcanic hazard estimates originally obtained by expert elicitation in 1996. Yucca Mountain is a series of north-trending ridges of eastward-tilted fault blocks that are bounded by north to northeast-trending normal faults. Topographic basins filled with up to 500 m of alluvium surround it to the east, south and west. In the past several decades, nearly 50 holes have been drilled in these basins, mainly for Yucca Mountain Project Site Characterization and the Nye County Early Warning Drilling Program. Several of these drill holes have penetrated relatively deeply buried (300-400 m) Miocene basalt; a Pliocene basalt dated at 3.8 Ma was encountered at a relatively shallow depth (100 m) in the northern Amargosa Desert (Anomaly B in Figure 1). The current drilling program is the first to specifically target and characterize buried basalt. Based on the new aeromagnetic survey and previous air and ground magnetic surveys (Connor et al. 2000; O'Leary et al. 2002), at least eight drill

  13. Volcanic Ash Hazards and Risk in Argentina: Scientific and Social Collaborative Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, E. I., II; Violante, R. A.; Vazquez Herrera, M. D.; Martinez Fernandez, M. D. L. P.

    2015-12-01

    Due to the absence of alerts or volcanic impacts during 60 years (from 1932, Quizapu-Descabezado Grande -one of the major eruptions of the XX Century- until 1991 Hudson eruption) there was mild remembrance of volcanic hazards in the collective memory of the Argentina citizens. Since then and until April 2015, the social perception changed according to different factors: age, location, education, culture, vulnerability. This variability produces a maze of challenges that go beyond the scientific knowledge. Volcanic health hazards began to be understood in 2008 after the eruption of Chaiten volcano. The particle size of ashfall (concern on epidemiological monitoring. In 2011 the volcanic complex Puyehue - Cordon Caulle eruption produced ashfall through plumes that reached densely populated cities like San Carlos de Bariloche and Buenos Aires. Farther away in South Africa and New Zealand ash plumes forced airlines to cancel local and international flights for several weeks. The fear of another eruption did not wait long when Calbuco volcano started activity in April 2015, it came at a time when Villarrica volcano was also in an eruptive phase, and the SERNAGEOMIN Chile, through the Observatory OVDAS of the Southern Andes, faced multiple natural disasters at the same time, 3 volcanoes in activity, lahars, pyroclastic flows and floods in the North. In Argentina, critical infrastructure, farming, livestock and primary supplies were affected mainly in the western region. Copahue volcano, is increasing unstability on seismic and geochemistry data since 2012. Caviahue resort village, distant only 8 Km. from the active vent happens to be a high vulnerable location. In 2014 GEVAS (Geology, Volcanoes, Environment and Health) Network ARGENTINA Civil Association started collaborative activities with SEGEMAR and in 2015 with the IAPG (Geoethics, Argentina), intending to promote Best Practices in volcanic and geological hazards. Geoscientists and the volcano vulnerable population

  14. Volcanic activity in the Acambay Graben: a < 25 Ka subplinian eruption from the Temascalcingo volcano and implications for volcanic hazard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Aguirre Díaz, Gerardo; Sunyé Puchol, Ivan; Bartolini, Stefania; Geyer, Adelina

    2016-04-01

    The Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) contains a large number of stratovolcanoes, some well-known, as Popocatepetl, Iztaccihuatl, Nevado de Toluca, or Colima and many others of more modest dimensions that are not well known but constitute the majority in the TMVB. Such volcanoes are, for example, Tequila, San Juan, Sangangüey, Cerro Culiacán, Cerro Grande, El Zamorano, La Joya, Palo Huerfano, Jocotitlán, Altamirano and Temascalcingo, among many others. The Temascalcingo volcano (TV) is an andesitic-dacitic stratovolcano located in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) at the eastern part of the Acambay Graben (northwest portion of Estado de México). The TV is composed mainly by dacitic, porphyritic lavas, block and ash deposits and subordinate pumice fall deposits and ignimbrites (Roldán-Quintana et al., 2011). The volcanic structure includes a summit caldera that has a rectangular shape, 2.5×3.5 km, with the largest side oriented E-W, parallel to major normal faults affecting the edifice. The San Mateo Pumice eruption is one of the greatest paroxysmal episodes of this volcano with pumice deposits mainly exposed at the scarp of the Acambay-Tixmadeje fault and at the northern and northeastern flanks of TV. It overlies a paleosol dated at 25 Ka. A NE-trending dispersion was obtained from field data covering an area of at least 80 km2. These deposits overlie older lava flows and mud flows and are discontinuously covered and eroded by younger reworked deposits of Temascalcingo volcano. This event represents a highly explosive phase that generated a relatively thick and widespread pumice fallout deposit that may occur again in future eruptions. A similar eruption today would have a significantly impact in the region, overall due to the fact that there has been no systematic assessment of the volcanic hazard in any of the studies that have been conducted so far in the area. So, this is a pending and urgent subject that must be tackled without delay. Financed by

  15. A database of volcanic hazards and their physical impacts to critical infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas; Deligne, Natalia

    2013-04-01

    Approximately 10% of the world's population lives within 100 km of historically active volcanoes. Consequently, considerable critical infrastructure is at risk of being affected by volcanic eruptions, where critical infrastructure includes: electricity and wastewater networks; water supply systems; transport routes; communications; and buildings. Appropriate risk management strategies are required to minimise the risk to infrastructure, which necessitates detailed understanding of both volcanic hazards and infrastructure parameters and vulnerabilities. To address this, we are developing a database of the physical impacts and vulnerability of critical infrastructure observed during/following historic eruptions, placed in the context of event-specific volcanic hazard and infrastructure parameters. Our database considers: volcanic hazard parameters for each case study eruption (tephra thickness, dynamic pressure of PDCs, etc.); inventory of infrastructure elements present within the study area (geographical extent, age, etc.); the type and number of impacts and disruption caused to particular infrastructure sectors; and the quantified assessment of the vulnerability of built environments. Data have been compiled from a wide range of literature, focussing in particular on impact assessment studies which document in detail the damage sustained by critical infrastructure during a given eruption. We are creating a new vulnerability ranking to quantify the vulnerability of built environments affected by volcanic eruptions. The ranking is based upon a range of physical impacts and service disruption criteria, and is assigned to each case study. This ranking will permit comparison of vulnerabilities between case studies as well as indicate expected vulnerability during future eruptions. We are also developing hazard intensity thresholds indicating when specific damage states are expected for different critical infrastructure sectors. Finally, we have developed a data quality

  16. Relationships between safety and reliability in major hazard situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, F.R.

    1978-01-01

    Individual risk rates for various activities are presented and discussed. The concept of societal risk is introduced -the chance of hurting many people from one event. Major hazards present a possibility that an ensuing accident could have a very wide range of consequences from the trivial to a catastrophe. The techniques of assessing risks and consequences are being developed; these are closely related to the techniques of ensuring plant and system reliability. (author)

  17. Volcanic-glacial interactions: GIS applications to the assessment of lahar hazards (case study of Kamchatka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ya. D. Muraviev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available On the Kamchatka peninsula, lahars or volcanogenic mudflows arise as a result of intensive snow melting caused by incandescent material ejected by volcanoes onto the surface. Such flows carrying volcanic ash and cinders together with lava fragments and blocks move with a speed up to 70 km/h that can result in significant destructions and even human victims. Formation of such water flows is possible during the whole year.Large-scale GIS «Hazards of lahars (volcanogenic mudflows» has been developed for some volcano group as well as for individual volcanoes on the peninsula in framework of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc». Main components of this database are the following: physic-geographical information on region of active volcanism and adjacent areas, on human settlements; data on the mudflow activity; data on distribution of the snow and ice reserves. This database is aimed at mapping of surrounding territories and estimating a hazard of lahars.For illustration the paper presents a map of the lahar hazards, results of calculations of the distances of ejects and maximal area of ejected material spreading in dependence on a character and power of an eruption. In future we plan to perform operational calculations of maximal possible volumes of such flows and areas of their spreading. The calculations will be made on the basis of the GIS «Volcanic hazard of the Kuril-Kamchatka island arc».A volume of hard material carried by lahars onto slopes and down to foot of the Kluchevskaya volcanic massif is estimated on the basis of data on the snow and ice reserves on volcano slopes. On the average for many years, the snow accumulation in zones of the mudflow formations their volume often reaches 15–17 millions of cubic meters. Depending on the snowfall activity in different years this value may vary within 50% relative to the norm. Further on, calculations of maximal possible volume of such flows will be performed in a

  18. Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2014-12-01

    During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly

  19. Hazard Potential of Volcanic Flank Collapses Raised by New Megatsunami Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, R. S.; Winckler, G.; Madeira, J.; Helffrich, G. R.; Hipólito, A.; Quartau, R.; Adena, K.; Schaefer, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Large-scale gravitational flank collapses of steep volcanic islands are hypothetically capable of triggering megatsunamis with highly catastrophic effects. Yet evidence for the existence and impact of collapsed-triggered megatsunamis and their run-up heights remains scarce and/or is highly contentious. Therefore a considerable debate still exists over the potential magnitude of collapse-triggered tsunamis and their inherent hazard. In particular, doubts still remain whether or not large-scale flank failures typically generate enough volume flux to result in megatsunamis, or alternatively operate by slow-moving or multiple smaller episodic failures with much lower tsunamigenic potential. Here we show that one of the tallest and most active oceanic volcanoes on Earth - Fogo, in the Cape Verde Islands - collapsed catastrophically and triggered a megatsunami with devastating near-field effects ~73,000 years ago. Our deductions are based on the recent discovery and cosmogenic 3He dating of tsunamigenic deposits - comprising fields of stranded megaclasts, chaotic conglomerates, and sand sheets - found on the adjacent Santiago Island, which attest to the impact of this megatsunami and document wave run-up heights exceeding 270 m. The evidence reported here implies that Fogo's flank failure involved at least one sudden and voluminous event that resulted in a megatsunami, in contrast to what has been suggested before. Our work thus provides another line of evidence that large-scale flank failures at steep volcanic islands may indeed happen catastrophically and are capable of triggering tsunamis of enormous height and energy. This new line of evidence therefore reinforces the hazard potential of volcanic island collapses and stands as a warning that such hazard should not be underestimated, particularly in areas where volcanic island edifices are close to other islands or to highly populated continental margins.

  20. Volcanic stratigraphy and geochemistry of the Soufrière Volcanic Centre, Saint Lucia with implications for volcanic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, Jan M.; Trumbull, Robert B.; Schmitt, Axel K.; Stockli, Daniel F.; Shane, Phil A.; Howe, Tracy M.

    2013-05-01

    The Soufrière Volcanic Complex (SVC), Saint Lucia, represents one of the largest silicic centres in the Lesser Antilles arc. It comprises extensive pumiceous pyroclastic flow deposits, lava flows as well as Peléan-style domes and dome collapse block-and-ash-flow deposits. These deposits occur within and around the Qualibou Depression, a ~ 10-km diameter wide sector collapse structure. To date, vent locations for SVC pyroclastic deposits and their relationship to the sector collapse have been unclear because of limited stratigraphic correlation and few radiometric ages. In this study we reconstruct the geologic history of the SVC in light of new and recently published (U-Th)/He, U-Th and U-Pb zircon chronostratigraphic data, aided by mineralogical and geochemical correlation. Compositionally, SVC deposits are monotonous medium-K, calc-alkaline rocks with 61.6 to 67.7 wt.% SiO2 and display similar trace element abundances. Combined U-Th and (U-Th)/He zircon dating together with 14C ages and mineral fingerprinting reveals significant explosive eruptions at 640, 515, 265, 104, 60 and 40 ka (producing deposits previously grouped together as the "Choiseul" unit) and at 20 ka (Belfond unit). The mineralogically and geochemically distinct Belfond unit is a large, valley-filling pumiceous pyroclastic flow deposit distributed to the north, northeast, south and southeast of the Qualibou Depression that was probably deposited during a single plinian eruption. The unit previously referred to as ‘Choiseul tuff' is much less well defined. The typical Choiseul unit comprises a series of yellowish-white, crystal-poor, non-welded pumiceous pyroclastic deposits cropping out to the north and southeast of the Qualibou depression; however its age is poorly constrained. A number of other units previously mapped as Choiseul can be distinguished based on age, and in some cases mineral and whole rock chemistry. Pyroclastic deposits at Micoud (640 ± 19 ka), Bellevue (264 ± 8 ka), Anse

  1. The Global Framework for Providing Information about Volcanic-Ash Hazards to International Air Navigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, R. W.; Guffanti, M.

    2009-12-01

    The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) created the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) in 1987 to establish a requirement for international dissemination of information about airborne ash hazards to safe air navigation. The IAVW is a set of operational protocols and guidelines that member countries agree to follow in order to implement a global, multi-faceted program to support the strategy of ash-cloud avoidance. Under the IAVW, the elements of eruption reporting, ash-cloud detecting, and forecasting expected cloud dispersion are coordinated to culminate in warnings sent to air traffic controllers, dispatchers, and pilots about the whereabouts of ash clouds. Nine worldwide Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) established under the IAVW have the responsibility for detecting the presence of ash in the atmosphere, primarily by looking at imagery from civilian meteorological satellites, and providing advisories about the location and movement of ash clouds to aviation meteorological offices and other aviation users. Volcano Observatories also are a vital part of the IAVW, as evidenced by the recent introduction of a universal message format for reporting the status of volcanic activity, including precursory unrest, to aviation users. Since 2003, the IAVW has been overseen by a standing group of scientific, technical, and regulatory experts that assists ICAO in the development of standards and other regulatory material related to volcanic ash. Some specific problems related to the implementation of the IAVW include: the lack of implementation of SIGMET (warning to aircraft in flight) provisions and delayed notifications of volcanic eruptions. Expected future challenges and developments involve the improvement in early notifications of volcanic eruptions, the consolidation of the issuance of SIGMETs, and the possibility of determining a “safe” concentration of volcanic ash.

  2. Development of Air Quality Impact Assessment Method of Potential Volcanic Hazard near the Korean Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunwoo, Y.; Kim, Y. J.; Kim, D.; Park, J. E.; Hong, K. H.

    2016-12-01

    Many volcanos are located within 1,500 km of Korea which implies that a potential disaster is always possible. Several eruption precursors were observed rather recently at Mt. Baekdu, which has sparked intensive research on volcanic disasters in Korea. For assessment of potential volcanic hazard in Korea, we developed classification method of volcanic eruption dates using the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT-4) regarding air quality impact. And, we conducted 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling for selected eruption dates. WRF-ARW(version 3.6.1) meteorological modeling was employed for high resolution HYSPLIT input meteorological data,. The modeling domain covers Northeast Asia including Korea, Japan, east China, and part of Russia. Forward trajectories were calculated every 3 hours for 1 year (2010) and the trajectories were initiated from 3 volcanoes, Mt. Baekdu, Mt. Aso, and Mt. Tarumae. Selected eruption dates were classified into 5 classes using 4 parameters, PBL, trajectory retention time, initial trajectory altitude and exposed population. The number of significant days for volcanic eruption impact were 7 for Mt. Baekdu (spring and fall), 7 for Mt. Aso (summer), 1 for Mt. Tarumae (spring), and these were classified as class A, with the highest risk of incurring severe air pollution episodes in the receptor area. In addition, we analyzed the spatio-temporal distributions of these trajectories in the receptor area to help determine the period and domain of the volcanic eruption 3 dimensional chemistry transport modeling. Using class A eruption dates, we conducted CMAQ(v5.0.2) modeling for calculate full chemical reactions of volcanic gases and ashes in troposphere.

  3. Update of map the volcanic hazard in the Ceboruco volcano, Nayarit, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Camarena-Garcia, M. A.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Ceboruco Volcano (21° 7.688 N, 104° 30.773 W) is located in the northwestern part of the Tepic-Zacoalco graben. Its volcanic activity can be divided in four eruptive cycles differentiated by their VEI and chemical variations as well. As a result of andesitic effusive activity, the "paleo-Ceboruco" edifice was constructed during the first cycle. The end of this cycle is defined by a plinian eruption (VEI between 3 and 4) which occurred some 1020 years ago and formed the external caldera. During the second cycle an andesitic dome built up in the interior of the caldera. The dome collapsed and formed the internal caldera. The third cycle is represented by andesitic lava flows which partially cover the northern and south-southwestern part of the edifice. The last cycle is represented by the andesitic lava flows of the nineteenth century located in the southwestern flank of the volcano. Actually, moderate fumarolic activity occurs in the upper part of the volcano showing temperatures ranging between 20° and 120°C. Some volcanic high frequency tremors have also been registered near the edifice. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 1998, where we identify with SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east sides of the Ceboruco volcano. The population inhabiting the area is 70,224 people in 2010, concentrated in 107 localities and growing at an annual rate of 0.37%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by highway, high road, railroad, and the construction of new highway to Puerto Vallarta, which is built in the southeast sector of the volcano and electrical infrastructure that connect the Cajon and Yesca Dams to Guadalajara city. The most important economic activity in the area is agriculture, with crops of sugar cane (Saccharum officinarum), corn, and jamaica

  4. Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gunkel

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO2 occur, and an accumulation of CO2 in the deep water body must be taken into account.

    Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO2 degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.

  5. Living in Harmony with Disaster: Exploring Volcanic Hazard Vulnerability in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sea Eun Cho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This article illustrates the multi-faceted notion of hazard vulnerability and the complicated relations a community has with a hazardous area based on a joint urban planning and design studio between Seoul National University and Diponegoro University in 2014. The study focused on an area in Central Java, Indonesia, surrounded by four active volcanic mountains, and explored the economic, environmental and social vulnerability associated with the site. Although initially the study focused on drawing up and improving the relocation plan, it was soon discovered that eliminating environmental vulnerability by relocating residents to new sites may in fact increase their economic vulnerability. This led the study to embrace the concept of living in harmony with disaster. In conclusion, the results of the study are discussed in terms recognizing environmental hazards as a vehicle for understanding local perceptions, and utilizing these perceptions to suggest mitigation measures that are more responsive to the site at risk.

  6. Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago: Volcanic terrain instability and human vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malheiro, A.

    2006-08-01

    The islands of the Azores archipelago are geologically young and located in a tectonically and volcanically active region. Not surprisingly, the islands are subject to many geological hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, and coastal erosion; some selected examples are discussed in this paper. As demonstrated by two recent earthquakes (1980, Terceira; 1998, Faial), the principal damage was related to one or more of these factors: (1) unsafe location of structures near faults; (2) unstable foundation soils; (3) poor quality of building materials and construction methods; (4) disregard of building codes; and (5) lack of building maintenance. Major landsliding events in the Azores (e.g., Ponta da Fajã, Ribeira Quente, and Fajã dos Cubres) typically are triggered by intense, long-duration precipitation and (or) earthquake-induced ground shaking. The loose, unconsolidated nature of the rocks and soils of these volcanic islands is another significant contributing factor, sometimes aggravated by ground instability caused by human activity. Coastal erosion is prevalent on the north coast of São Miguel and the south coast of Faial, mostly resulting from natural circumstances (e.g., steepness of cliffs, differential erosion, intense wave action during storms) and also from human activity (e.g., poorly engineered drainage works on cliff faces). Where severe, coastal erosion can pose a risk to populations and societal infrastructures situated near the tops of the seacliffs. To mitigate the risk of these and other geological hazards in the Azores, it is necessary to (1) prepare hazards and risks maps of the affected areas; (2) adopt prudent land-use planning that considers the hazards; (3) upgrade the building codes in the hazardous areas; (4) initiate slope-stabilization programs; (5) preserve the natural environmental integrity of the regions; and (6) educate the affected populace and governmental officials about the possibilities and consequences of hazardous

  7. Geotourism and volcanoes: health hazards facing tourists at volcanic and geothermal destinations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heggie, Travis W

    2009-09-01

    Volcano tourism and tourism to geothermal destinations is increasingly popular. If such endeavors are to be a sustainable sector of the tourism industry, tourists must be made aware of the potential health hazards facing them in volcanic environments. With the aim of creating awareness amongst the tourism industry and practitioners of travel medicine, this paper reviews the potential influences and effects of volcanic gases such as carbon dioxide (CO(2)), hydrogen sulfide (H(2)S), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and hydrogen chloride/hydrochloric acid (HCl). It also reviews the negative health impacts of tephra and ash, lava flows, landslides, and mudflows. Finally, future research striving to quantify the health risks facing volcano tourists is recommended.

  8. Modeling of seismic hazards for dynamic reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mizutani, M.; Fukushima, S.; Akao, Y.; Katukura, H.

    1993-01-01

    This paper investigates the appropriate indices of seismic hazard curves (SHCs) for seismic reliability analysis. In the most seismic reliability analyses of structures, the seismic hazards are defined in the form of the SHCs of peak ground accelerations (PGAs). Usually PGAs play a significant role in characterizing ground motions. However, PGA is not always a suitable index of seismic motions. When random vibration theory developed in the frequency domain is employed to obtain statistics of responses, it is more convenient for the implementation of dynamic reliability analysis (DRA) to utilize an index which can be determined in the frequency domain. In this paper, we summarize relationships among the indices which characterize ground motions. The relationships between the indices and the magnitude M are arranged as well. In this consideration, duration time plays an important role in relating two distinct class, i.e. energy class and power class. Fourier and energy spectra are involved in the energy class, and power and response spectra and PGAs are involved in the power class. These relationships are also investigated by using ground motion records. Through these investigations, we have shown the efficiency of employing the total energy as an index of SHCs, which can be determined in the time and frequency domains and has less variance than the other indices. In addition, we have proposed the procedure of DRA based on total energy. (author)

  9. Field Courses for Volcanic Hazards Mapping at Parícutinand Jorullo Volcanoes (Mexico)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Victoria Morales, A.; Delgado Granados, H.; Roberge, J.; Farraz Montes, I. A.; Linares López, C.

    2007-05-01

    During the last decades, Mexico has suffered several geologic phenomena-related disasters. The eruption of El Chichón volcano in 1982 killed >2000 people and left a large number of homeless populations and severe economic damages. The best way to avoid and mitigate disasters and their effects is by making geologic hazards maps. In volcanic areas these maps should show in a simplified fashion, but based on the largest geologic background possible, the probable (or likely) distribution in time and space of the products related to a variety of volcanic processes and events, according to likely magnitude scenarios documented on actual events at a particular volcano or a different one with similar features to the volcano used for calibration and weighing geologic background. Construction of hazards maps requires compilation and acquisition of a large amount of geological data in order to obtain the physical parameters needed to calibrate and perform controlled simulation of volcanic events under different magnitude-scenarios in order to establish forecasts. These forecasts are needed by the authorities to plan human settlements, infrastructure, and economic development. The problem is that needs are overwhelmingly faster than the adjustments of university programs to include courses. At the Earth Science División of the Faculty of Engineering at the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, the students have a good background that permits to learn the methodologies for hazards map construction but no courses on hazards evaluations. Therefore, under the support of the university's Program to Support Innovation and Improvement of Teaching (PAPIME, Programa de Apoyo para la Innovación y Mejoramiento de la Enseñanza) a series of field-based intensive courses allow the Earth science students to learn what kind of data to acquire, how to record, and process in order to carry out hazards evaluations. This training ends with hazards maps that can be used immediately by the

  10. LAV@HAZARD: a web-GIS interface for volcanic hazard assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Gallo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Satellite data, radiative power of hot spots as measured with remote sensing, historical records, on site geological surveys, digital elevation model data, and simulation results together provide a massive data source to investigate the behavior of active volcanoes like Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy over recent times. The integration of these heterogeneous data into a coherent visualization framework is important for their practical exploitation. It is crucial to fill in the gap between experimental and numerical data, and the direct human perception of their meaning. Indeed, the people in charge of safety planning of an area need to be able to quickly assess hazards and other relevant issues even during critical situations. With this in mind, we developed LAV@HAZARD, a web-based geographic information system that provides an interface for the collection of all of the products coming from the LAVA project research activities. LAV@HAZARD is based on Google Maps application programming interface, a choice motivated by its ease of use and the user-friendly interactive environment it provides. In particular, the web structure consists of four modules for satellite applications (time-space evolution of hot spots, radiant flux and effusion rate, hazard map visualization, a database of ca. 30,000 lava-flow simulations, and real-time scenario forecasting by MAGFLOW on Compute Unified Device Architecture.

  11. Volcanic hazard assessment for the Canary Islands (Spain using extreme value theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Sobradelo

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The Canary Islands are an active volcanic region densely populated and visited by several millions of tourists every year. Nearly twenty eruptions have been reported through written chronicles in the last 600 yr, suggesting that the probability of a new eruption in the near future is far from zero. This shows the importance of assessing and monitoring the volcanic hazard of the region in order to reduce and manage its potential volcanic risk, and ultimately contribute to the design of appropriate preparedness plans. Hence, the probabilistic analysis of the volcanic eruption time series for the Canary Islands is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk in the area. Such a series describes complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. Here we propose a statistical method for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions which is most appropriate given the nature of the documented historical eruptive data. We first characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes, and then carry out a preliminary analysis of the data to establish the requirements for the statistical method. Past studies in eruptive time series used conventional statistics and treated the series as an homogeneous process. In this paper, we will use a method that accounts for the time-dependence of the series and includes rare or extreme events, in the form of few data of large eruptions, since these data require special methods of analysis. Hence, we will use a statistical method from extreme value theory. In particular, we will apply a non-homogeneous Poisson process to the historical eruptive data of the Canary Islands to estimate the probability of having at least one volcanic event of a magnitude greater than one in the upcoming years. This is done in three steps: First, we analyze the historical eruptive series to assess independence and homogeneity of the process. Second, we perform a Weibull analysis of the

  12. Contrasting styles of post-caldera volcanism along the Main Ethiopian Rift: Implications for contemporary volcanic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontijn, Karen; McNamara, Keri; Zafu Tadesse, Amdemichael; Pyle, David M.; Dessalegn, Firawalin; Hutchison, William; Mather, Tamsin A.; Yirgu, Gezahegn

    2018-05-01

    The Main Ethiopian Rift (MER, 7-9°N) is the type example of a magma-assisted continental rift. The rift axis is populated with regularly spaced silicic caldera complexes and central stratovolcanoes, interspersed with large fields of small mafic scoria cones. The recent (latest Pleistocene to Holocene) history of volcanism in the MER is poorly known, and no eruptions have occurred in the living memory of the local population. Assessment of contemporary volcanic hazards and associated risk is primarily based on the study of the most recent eruptive products, typically those emplaced within the last 10-20 ky. We integrate new and published field observations and geochemical data on tephra deposits from the main Late Quaternary volcanic centres in the central MER to assess contemporary volcanic hazards. Most central volcanoes in the MER host large mid-Pleistocene calderas, with typical diameters of 5-15 km, and associated ignimbrites of trachyte and peralkaline rhyolite composition. In contrast, post-caldera activity at most centres comprises eruptions of peralkaline rhyolitic magmas as obsidian flows, domes and pumice cones. The frequency and magnitude of events varies between individual volcanoes. Some volcanoes have predominantly erupted obsidian lava flows in their most recent post-caldera stage (Fentale), whereas other have had up to 3 moderate-scale (VEI 3-4) explosive eruptions per millennium (Aluto). At some volcanoes we find evidence for multiple large explosive eruptions (Corbetti, Bora-Baricha, Boset-Bericha) which have deposited several centimetres to metres of pumice and ash in currently densely populated regions. This new overview has important implications when assessing the present-day volcanic hazard in this rapidly developing region. Supplementary Table 2 Main Ethiopian Rift outcrop localities with brief description of geology. All coordinates in Latitude - Longitude, WGS84 datum. Sample names (as listed in Supplementary Table 3a) follow outcrop name

  13. Volcanic ash and aviation–The challenges of real-time, global communication of a natural hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, Peter; Tupper, Andrew C.; Guffanti, Marianne C.; Loughlin, Sue; Casadevall, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    More than 30 years after the first major aircraft encounters with volcanic ash over Indonesia in 1982, it remains challenging to inform aircraft in flight of the exact location of potentially dangerous ash clouds on their flight path, particularly shortly after the eruption has occurred. The difficulties include reliably forecasting and detecting the onset of significant explosive eruptions on a global basis, observing the dispersal of eruption clouds in real time, capturing their complex structure and constituents in atmospheric transport models, describing these observations and modelling results in a manner suitable for aviation users, delivering timely warning messages to the cockpit, flight planners and air traffic management systems, and the need for scientific development in order to undertake operational enhancements. The framework under which these issues are managed is the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW), administered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). ICAO outlines in its standards and recommended practices (International Civil Aviation Organization, 2014) the basic volcanic monitoring and communication that is necessary at volcano observatories in Member States (countries). However, not all volcanoes are monitored and not all countries with volcanoes have mandated volcano observatories or equivalents. To add to the efforts of volcano observatories, a system of Meteorological Watch Offices, Air Traffic Management Area Control Centres, and nine specialist Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) are responsible for observing, analysing, forecasting and communicating the aviation hazard (airborne ash), using agreed techniques and messages in defined formats. Continuous improvement of the IAVW framework is overseen by expert groups representing the operators of the system, the user community, and the science community. The IAVW represents a unique marriage of two scientific disciplines - volcanology and meteorology - with the

  14. MED SUV TASK 6.3 Capacity building and interaction with decision makers: Improving volcanic risk communication through volcanic hazard tools evaluation, Campi Flegrei Caldera case study (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nave, Rosella; Isaia, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Cristiani, Chiara

    2016-04-01

    In the communication chain between scientists and decision makers (end users), scientific outputs, as maps, are a fundamental source of information on hazards zoning and the related at risk areas definition. Anyway the relationship between volcanic phenomena, their probability and potential impact can be complex and the geospatial information not easily decoded or understood by not experts even if decision makers. Focusing on volcanic hazard the goal of MED SUV WP6 Task 3 is to improve the communication efficacy of scientific outputs, to contribute in filling the gap between scientists and decision-makers. Campi Flegrei caldera, in Neapolitan area has been chosen as the pilot research area where to apply an evaluation/validation procedure to provide a robust evaluation of the volcanic maps and its validation resulting from end users response. The selected sample involved are decision makers and officials from Campanian Region Civil Protection and municipalities included in Campi Flegrei RED ZONE, the area exposed to risk from to pyroclastic currents hazard. Semi-structured interviews, with a sample of decision makers and civil protection officials have been conducted to acquire both quantitative and qualitative data. The tested maps have been: the official Campi Flegrei Caldera RED ZONE map, three maps produced by overlapping the Red Zone limit on Orthophoto, DTM and Contour map, as well as other maps included a probabilistic one, showing volcanological data used to border the Red Zone. The outcomes' analysis have assessed level of respondents' understanding of content as displayed, and their needs in representing the complex information embedded in volcanic hazard. The final output has been the development of a leaflet as "guidelines" that can support decision makers and officials in understanding volcanic hazard and risk maps, and also in using them as a communication tool in information program for the population at risk. The same evaluation /validation process

  15. Earth Girl Volcano: An Interactive Casual Game about Complex Volcanic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlow, I.

    2017-12-01

    Earth Girl Volcano is an interactive casual strategy game for disaster preparedness. The project is designed for mainstream audiences, particularly for children, as an engaging and fun way to learn about volcano hazards, monitoring, and mitigation strategies. The game is deceptively simple but it provides a toolbox to address practically all volcanic hazards ranging from gas and ash fall to pyroclastic flows, lava and lahars. This presentation shows the basic dynamic to explore the area, assess the risk, choose the best-suited tools and execute a mitigation strategy within the available budget. This game is a real-time simulation of a crowd evacuation that allows players to intervene before and during the disaster.

  16. Volcanic Hazard Education through Virtual Field studies of Vesuvius and Laki Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, S.; Sigurdsson, H.

    2011-12-01

    Volcanic eruptions pose significant hazards to human populations and have the potential to cause significant economic impacts as shown by the recent ash-producing eruptions in Iceland. Demonstrating both the local and global impact of eruptions is important for developing an appreciation of the scale of hazards associated with volcanic activity. In order to address this need, Web-based virtual field exercises at Vesuvius volcano in Italy and Laki volcano in Iceland have been developed as curriculum enhancements for undergraduate geology classes. The exercises are built upon previous research by the authors dealing with the 79 AD explosive eruption of Vesuvius and the 1783 lava flow eruption of Laki. Quicktime virtual reality images (QTVR), video clips, user-controlled Flash animations and interactive measurement tools are used to allow students to explore archeological and geological sites, collect field data in an electronic field notebook, and construct hypotheses about the impacts of the eruptions on the local and global environment. The QTVR images provide 360o views of key sites where students can observe volcanic deposits and formations in the context of a defined field area. Video sequences from recent explosive and effusive eruptions of Carribean and Hawaiian volcanoes are used to illustrate specific styles of eruptive activity, such as ash fallout, pyroclastic flows and surges, lava flows and their effects on the surrounding environment. The exercises use an inquiry-based approach to build critical relationships between volcanic processes and the deposits that they produce in the geologic record. A primary objective of the exercises is to simulate the role of a field volcanologist who collects information from the field and reconstructs the sequence of eruptive processes based on specific features of the deposits. Testing of the Vesuvius and Laki exercises in undergraduate classes from a broad spectrum of educational institutions shows a preference for the

  17. A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Mendoza-Rosas

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index categories. The most striking property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes, México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other distributions.

  18. Assessing the long-term probabilistic volcanic hazard for tephra fallout in Reykjavik, Iceland: a preliminary multi-source analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Barsotti, Sara; Sandri, Laura; Tumi Guðmundsson, Magnús

    2015-04-01

    Icelandic volcanism is largely dominated by basaltic magma. Nevertheless the presence of glaciers over many Icelandic volcanic systems results in frequent phreatomagmatic eruptions and associated tephra production, making explosive eruptions the most common type of volcanic activity. Jökulhlaups are commonly considered as major volcanic hazard in Iceland for their high frequency and potentially very devastating local impact. Tephra fallout is also frequent and can impact larger areas. It is driven by the wind direction that can change with both altitude and season, making impossible to predict a priori where the tephra will be deposited during the next eruptions. Most of the volcanic activity in Iceland occurs in the central eastern part, over 100 km to the east of the main population centre around the capital Reykjavík. Therefore, the hazard from tephra fallout in Reykjavík is expected to be smaller than for communities settled near the main volcanic systems. However, within the framework of quantitative hazard and risk analyses, less frequent and/or less intense phenomena should not be neglected, since their risk evaluation depends on the effects suffered by the selected target. This is particularly true if the target is highly vulnerable, as large urban areas or important infrastructures. In this work we present the preliminary analysis aiming to perform a Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) for tephra fallout focused on the target area which includes the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík international airport. This approach reverts the more common perspective where the hazard analysis is focused on the source (the volcanic system) and it follows a multi-source approach: indeed, the idea is to quantify, homogeneously, the hazard due to the main hazardous volcanoes that could pose a tephra fallout threat for the municipality of Reykjavík and the Keflavík airport. PVHA for each volcanic system is calculated independently and the results

  19. Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Volcanic Hazard Risk Levels in Areas Surrounding the Copahue Volcano in the Andes Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, A. M.; Weigel, A. M.; Rivas, J.

    2014-12-01

    Copahue is a stratovolcano located along the rim of the Caviahue Caldera near the Chile-Argentina border in the Andes Mountain Range. There are several small towns located in proximity of the volcano with the two largest being Banos Copahue and Caviahue. During its eruptive history, it has produced numerous lava flows, pyroclastic flows, ash deposits, and lahars. This isolated region has steep topography and little vegetation, rendering it poorly monitored. The need to model volcanic hazard risk has been reinforced by recent volcanic activity that intermittently released several ash plumes from December 2012 through May 2013. Exposure to volcanic ash is currently the main threat for the surrounding populations as the volcano becomes more active. The goal of this project was to study Copahue and determine areas that have the highest potential of being affected in the event of an eruption. Remote sensing techniques were used to examine and identify volcanic activity and areas vulnerable to experiencing volcanic hazards including volcanic ash, SO2 gas, lava flow, pyroclastic density currents and lahars. Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), EO-1 Advanced Land Imager (ALI), Terra Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), ISS ISERV Pathfinder, and Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) products were used to analyze volcanic hazards. These datasets were used to create a historic lava flow map of the Copahue volcano by identifying historic lava flows, tephra, and lahars both visually and spectrally. Additionally, a volcanic risk and hazard map for the surrounding area was created by modeling the possible extent of ash fallout, lahars, lava flow, and pyroclastic density currents (PDC) for future eruptions. These model results were then used to identify areas that should be prioritized for disaster relief and evacuation orders.

  20. Long-term volcanic hazard forecasts based on Somma-Vesuvio past eruptive activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lirer, Lucio; Petrosino, Paola; Alberico, Ines; Postiglione, Immacolata

    2001-02-01

    Distributions of pyroclastic deposits from the main explosive events at Somma-Vesuvio during the 8,000-year B.P.-A.D. 1906 time-span have been analysed to provide maps of volcanic hazard for long-term eruption forecasting. In order to define hazard ratings, the spatial distributions and loads (kg/m2) exerted by the fall deposits on the roofs of buildings have been considered. A load higher than 300 kg/m2 is defined as destructive. The relationship load/frequency (the latter defined as the number of times that an area has been impacted by the deposition of fall deposits) is considered to be a suitable parameter for differentiating among areas according to hazard rating. Using past fall deposit distributions as the basis for future eruptive scenarios, the total area that could be affected by the products of a future Vesuvio explosive eruption is 1,500 km2. The perivolcanic area (274 km2) has the greatest hazard rating because it could be buried by pyroclastic flow deposits thicker than 0.5 m and up to several tens of metres in thickness. Currently, the perivolcanic area also has the highest risk because of the high exposed value, mainly arising from the high population density.

  1. Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horwell, Claire Judith

    2002-01-01

    Volcanic ash, generated in the long-lived eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is shown to contain respirable (sub-4 μm) particles and the crystalline silica polymorph, cristobalite. Respirable particles of cristobalite can cause silicosis, raising the possibility that volcanic ash is a respiratory health hazard. This study considers some of the main factors that affect human exposure to volcanic particles: the composition, proportions and surface reactivity of respirable ash and the composition and concentrations of re-worked and airborne suspended particulates. Dome-collapse ash-fall deposits are significantly richer in respirable particles (12 weight %) than the other tephra samples, in particular the matrices of dome-collapse pyroclastic-flow deposits (3 weight %). Within the respirable fraction, dome-collapse ash contains the highest proportion of crystalline silica particles (20-27 number %, of which 97 % is cristobalite), compared with other primary tephra types (0.4-5.6 number %). The results are explained by significant fractionation during fragmentation of pyroclastic flows due to the size and strength of particles and the selective elutriation of fines into the lofting ash plume. This result in a fines-depleted dome-collapse matrix and a fines-rich dome-collapse ash deposit. For all sample types, the sub-4 μm fraction comprises 45-55 weight % of the sub-10 μm fraction. Re-worked and airborne samples show enrichment of crystalline silica in the respirable fraction (10-18 number %) but have low proportions of respirable ash (∼ 3 weight %) compared to primary ash samples. The concentration of ash particles re-suspended by road vehicles on Montserrat is found to decrease exponentially with height above the ground, indicating higher exposure for children compared with adults: PM 4 concentration at 0.9 m (height of two year old child) is three times that at 1.8m (adult height). Surface- and free-radical production has been closely linked

  2. Characterization of Montserrat volcanic ash for the assessment of respiratory health hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horwell, Claire Judith

    2002-07-01

    Volcanic ash, generated in the long-lived eruption of the Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat, is shown to contain respirable (sub-4 {mu}m) particles and the crystalline silica polymorph, cristobalite. Respirable particles of cristobalite can cause silicosis, raising the possibility that volcanic ash is a respiratory health hazard. This study considers some of the main factors that affect human exposure to volcanic particles: the composition, proportions and surface reactivity of respirable ash and the composition and concentrations of re-worked and airborne suspended particulates. Dome-collapse ash-fall deposits are significantly richer in respirable particles (12 weight %) than the other tephra samples, in particular the matrices of dome-collapse pyroclastic-flow deposits (3 weight %). Within the respirable fraction, dome-collapse ash contains the highest proportion of crystalline silica particles (20-27 number %, of which 97 % is cristobalite), compared with other primary tephra types (0.4-5.6 number %). The results are explained by significant fractionation during fragmentation of pyroclastic flows due to the size and strength of particles and the selective elutriation of fines into the lofting ash plume. This result in a fines-depleted dome-collapse matrix and a fines-rich dome-collapse ash deposit. For all sample types, the sub-4 {mu}m fraction comprises 45-55 weight % of the sub-10 {mu}m fraction. Re-worked and airborne samples show enrichment of crystalline silica in the respirable fraction (10-18 number %) but have low proportions of respirable ash ({approx} 3 weight %) compared to primary ash samples. The concentration of ash particles re-suspended by road vehicles on Montserrat is found to decrease exponentially with height above the ground, indicating higher exposure for children compared with adults: PM{sub 4} concentration at 0.9 m (height of two year old child) is three times that at 1.8m (adult height). Surface- and free-radical production has been

  3. Analyzing the reliability of volcanic and archeomagnetic data by comparison with historical records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneitz, Patrick; Egli, Ramon; Leonhardt, Roman

    2017-04-01

    Records of the past geomagnetic field are obtained from historical observations (direct records) on the one hand, and by the magnetization acquired by archeological artifacts, rocks and sediments (indirect records) on the other hand. Indirect records are generally less reliable than direct ones due to recording mechanisms that cannot be fully reproduced in the laboratory, age uncertainties and alteration problems. Therefore, geomagnetic field modeling approaches must deal with random and systematic errors of field values and age estimates that are hard to assess. Here, we present a new approach to investigate the reliability of volcanic and archeomagnetic data, which is based on comparisons with historical records. Temporal and spatial mismatches between data are handled by the implementation of weighting functions and error estimates derived from a stochastic model of secular variation. Furthermore, a new strategy is introduced for the statistical analysis of inhomogeneous and internally correlated data sets. Application of these new analysis tools to an extended database including direct and indirect records shows an overall good agreement between different record categories. Nevertheless, some biases exist between selected material categories, laboratory procedures, and quality checks/corrections (e.g., inclination shallowing of volcanic records). These findings can be used to obtain a better understanding of error sources affecting indirect records, thereby facilitating more reliable reconstructions of the geomagnetic past.

  4. Catastrophic debris flows transformed from landslides in volcanic terrains : mobility, hazard assessment and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Kevin M.; Macias, Jose Luis; Naranjo, Jose Antonio; Rodriguez, Sergio; McGeehin, John P.

    2001-01-01

    Communities in lowlands near volcanoes are vulnerable to significant volcanic flow hazards in addition to those associated directly with eruptions. The largest such risk is from debris flows beginning as volcanic landslides, with the potential to travel over 100 kilometers. Stratovolcanic edifices commonly are hydrothermal aquifers composed of unstable, altered rock forming steep slopes at high altitudes, and the terrain surrounding them is commonly mantled by readily mobilized, weathered airfall and ashflow deposits. We propose that volcano hazard assessments integrate the potential for unanticipated debris flows with, at active volcanoes, the greater but more predictable potential of magmatically triggered flows. This proposal reinforces the already powerful arguments for minimizing populations in potential flow pathways below both active and selected inactive volcanoes. It also addresses the potential for volcano flank collapse to occur with instability early in a magmatic episode, as well as the 'false-alarm problem'-the difficulty in evacuating the potential paths of these large mobile flows. Debris flows that transform from volcanic landslides, characterized by cohesive (muddy) deposits, create risk comparable to that of their syneruptive counterparts of snow and ice-melt origin, which yield noncohesive (granular) deposits, because: (1) Volcano collapses and the failures of airfall- and ashflow-mantled slopes commonly yield highly mobile debris flows as well as debris avalanches with limited runout potential. Runout potential of debris flows may increase several fold as their volumes enlarge beyond volcanoes through bulking (entrainment) of sediment. Through this mechanism, the runouts of even relatively small collapses at Cascade Range volcanoes, in the range of 0.1 to 0.2 cubic kilometers, can extend to populated lowlands. (2) Collapse is caused by a variety of triggers: tectonic and volcanic earthquakes, gravitational failure, hydrovolcanism, and

  5. ST-HASSET for volcanic hazard assessment: A Python tool for evaluating the evolution of unrest indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Stefania; Sobradelo, Rosa; Martí, Joan

    2016-08-01

    Short-term hazard assessment is an important part of the volcanic management cycle, above all at the onset of an episode of volcanic agitation (unrest). For this reason, one of the main tasks of modern volcanology is to use monitoring data to identify and analyse precursory signals and so determine where and when an eruption might occur. This work follows from Sobradelo and Martí [Short-term volcanic hazard assessment through Bayesian inference: retrospective application to the Pinatubo 1991 volcanic crisis. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 290, 111, 2015] who defined the principle for a new methodology for conducting short-term hazard assessment in unrest volcanoes. Using the same case study, the eruption on Pinatubo (15 June 1991), this work introduces a new free Python tool, ST-HASSET, for implementing Sobradelo and Martí (2015) methodology in the time evolution of unrest indicators in the volcanic short-term hazard assessment. Moreover, this tool is designed for complementing long-term hazard assessment with continuous monitoring data when the volcano goes into unrest. It is based on Bayesian inference and transforms different pre-eruptive monitoring parameters into a common probabilistic scale for comparison among unrest episodes from the same volcano or from similar ones. This allows identifying common pre-eruptive behaviours and patterns. ST-HASSET is especially designed to assist experts and decision makers as a crisis unfolds, and allows detecting sudden changes in the activity of a volcano. Therefore, it makes an important contribution to the analysis and interpretation of relevant data for understanding the evolution of volcanic unrest.

  6. Preliminary volcano-hazard assessment for the Katmai volcanic cluster, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fierstein, Judy; Hildreth, Wes

    2000-01-01

    The world’s largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century broke out at Novarupta (fig. 1) in June 1912, filling with hot ash what came to be called the Valley of Ten Thousand Smokes and spreading downwind more fallout than all other historical Alaskan eruptions combined. Although almost all the magma vented at Novarupta, most of it had been stored beneath Mount Katmai 10 km away, which collapsed during the eruption. Airborne ash from the 3-day event blanketed all of southern Alaska, and its gritty fallout was reported as far away as Dawson, Ketchikan, and Puget Sound (fig. 21). Volcanic dust and sulfurous aerosol were detected within days over Wisconsin and Virginia; within 2 weeks over California, Europe, and North Africa; and in latter-day ice cores recently drilled on the Greenland ice cap. There were no aircraft in Alaska in 1912—fortunately! Corrosive acid aerosols damage aircraft, and ingestion of volcanic ash can cause abrupt jet-engine failure. Today, more than 200 flights a day transport 20,000 people and a fortune in cargo within range of dozens of restless volcanoes in the North Pacific. Air routes from the Far East to Europe and North America pass over and near Alaska, many flights refueling in Anchorage. Had this been so in 1912, every airport from Dillingham to Dawson and from Fairbanks to Seattle would have been enveloped in ash, leaving pilots no safe option but to turn back or find refuge at an Aleutian airstrip west of the ash cloud. Downwind dust and aerosol could have disrupted air traffic anywhere within a broad swath across Canada and the Midwest, perhaps even to the Atlantic coast. The great eruption of 1912 focused scientific attention on Novarupta, and subsequent research there has taught us much about the processes and hazards associated with such large explosive events (Fierstein and Hildreth, 1992). Moreover, work in the last decade has identified no fewer than 20 discrete volcanic vents within 15 km of Novarupta (Hildreth and others

  7. Volcanically-Triggered Rainfall and the Effect on Volcanological Hazards at Soufriere Hills, Montserrat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulidis, Alexandros-Panagiotis; Renfrew, Ian; Matthews, Adrian

    2014-05-01

    Atmospheric flow simulations over and around the Soufriere Hills volcano in the island of Montserrat in the Caribbean are studied, through a series of numerical model experiments, in order to link interactions between the volcano and the atmosphere. A heated surface is added on the top of the mountain, in order to simulate the dome of an active volcano that is not undergoing an eruption. A series of simulations with different atmospheric conditions and control parameters for the volcano will be presented. Simulations are made using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a high resolution digital elevation map of Montserrat. Simulations with an idealised topography have also been examined, in order for the results to have general applicability to similar-sized volcanoes located in the Tropics. The model was initialised with soundings from representative days of qualitatively different atmospheric conditions from the rainy season. The heated volcanic dome changes the orographic flow response significantly, depending upon the atmospheric conditions and the magnitude of the dome surface temperature anomaly. The flow regime and qualitative characteristic features, such orographic clouds and rainfall patterns, can all change significantly. For example, the orographic rainfall over the volcano can be significantly enhanced with increased dome temperatures. The implications of these changes on the eruptive behaviour of the volcano and resulting secondary volcanic hazards, such as lahars, will be discussed.

  8. Doubly stochastic models for volcanic hazard assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera

    CERN Document Server

    Bevilacqua, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    This study provides innovative mathematical models for assessing the eruption probability and associated volcanic hazards, and applies them to the Campi Flegrei caldera in Italy. Throughout the book, significant attention is devoted to quantifying the sources of uncertainty affecting the forecast estimates. The Campi Flegrei caldera is certainly one of the world’s highest-risk volcanoes, with more than 70 eruptions over the last 15,000 years, prevalently explosive ones of varying magnitude, intensity and vent location. In the second half of the twentieth century the volcano apparently once again entered a phase of unrest that continues to the present. Hundreds of thousands of people live inside the caldera and over a million more in the nearby city of Naples, making a future eruption of Campi Flegrei an event with potentially catastrophic consequences at the national and European levels.

  9. Violent Explosive Eruptions in the Ararat Valley, Armenia and Associated Volcanic Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meliksetian, Khachatur; Savov, Ivan; Connor, Charles; Gevorgyan, Hripsime; Connor, Laura; Navasardyan, Gevorg; Manucharyan, Davit; Jrbashyan, Ruben; Ghukasyan, Yura

    2016-04-01

    volcanic hazards for the region of Ararat valley based on numerical simulations. Our work is important as Ararat Valley host the capital city of Yerevan (population ˜ 1.4 million) and also the currently operating Armenian Nuclear Power Plant at Metsamor. References Keskin,2003. GRL 30, 1-4; Neill et al., 2015 Chemical Geology, 403, p. 24-41; Skolbeltsyn et al. 2014. Tectonics 33, 207-221.

  10. Volcanic hazard zonation of the Nevado de Toluca volcano, México

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Norini, G.; Groppelli, G.; Macías, J. L.; Arce, J. L.

    2008-10-01

    The Nevado de Toluca is a quiescent volcano located 20 km southwest of the City of Toluca and 70 km west of Mexico City. It has been quiescent since its last eruptive activity, dated at ˜ 3.3 ka BP. During the Pleistocene and Holocene, it experienced several eruptive phases, including five dome collapses with the emplacement of block-and-ash flows and four Plinian eruptions, including the 10.5 ka BP Plinian eruption that deposited more than 10 cm of sand-sized pumice in the area occupied today by Mexico City. A detailed geological map coupled with computer simulations (FLOW3D, TITAN2D, LAHARZ and HAZMAP softwares) were used to produce the volcanic hazard assessment. Based on the final hazard zonation the northern and eastern sectors of Nevado de Toluca would be affected by a greater number of phenomena in case of reappraisal activity. Block-and-ash flows will affect deep ravines up to a distance of 15 km and associated ash clouds could blanket the Toluca basin, whereas ash falls from Plinian events will have catastrophic effects for populated areas within a radius of 70 km, including the Mexico City Metropolitan area, inhabited by more than 20 million people. Independently of the activity of the volcano, lahars occur every year, affecting small villages settled down flow from main ravines.

  11. Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bird, Deanne K.; Gisladottir, Gudrun; Dominey-Howes, Dale

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between volcanic risk and the tourism sector in southern Iceland and the complex challenge emergency management officials face in developing effective volcanic risk mitigation strategies. An early warning system and emergency response procedures were developed for communities surrounding Katla, the volcano underlying the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap. However, prior to and during the 2007 tourist season these mitigation efforts were not effectively communicated to stakeholders located in the tourist destination of Þórsmörk despite its location within the hazard zone of Katla. The hazard zone represents the potential extent of a catastrophic jökulhlaup (glacial outburst flood). Furthermore, volcanic risk mitigation efforts in Þórsmörk were based solely on information derived from physical investigations of volcanic hazards. They did not consider the human dimension of risk. In order to address this gap and provide support to current risk mitigation efforts, questionnaire surveys were used to investigate tourists' and tourism employees' hazard knowledge, risk perception, adoption of personal preparedness measures, predicted behaviour if faced with a Katla eruption and views on education. Results indicate that tourists lack hazard knowledge and they do not adopt preparedness measures to deal with the consequences of an eruption. Despite a high level of risk perception, tourism employees lack knowledge about the early warning system and emergency response procedures. Results show that tourists are positive about receiving information concerning Katla and its hazards and therefore, the reticence of tourism employees with respect to disseminating hazard information is unjustified. In order to improve the tourism sector's collective capacity to positively respond during a future eruption, recommendations are made to ensure adequate dissemination of hazard, risk and emergency response information. Most importantly education campaigns

  12. Non-Volcanic release of CO2 in Italy: quantification, conceptual models and gas hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiodini, G.; Cardellini, C.; Caliro, S.; Avino, R.

    2011-12-01

    Central and South Italy are characterized by the presence of many reservoirs naturally recharged by CO2 of deep provenance. In the western sector, the reservoirs feed hundreds of gas emissions at the surface. Many studies in the last years were devoted to (i) elaborating a map of CO2 Earth degassing of the region; (ii) to asses the gas hazard; (iii) to develop methods suitable for the measurement of the gas fluxes from different types of emissions; (iv) to elaborate the conceptual model of Earth degassing and its relation with the seismic activity of the region and (v) to develop physical numerical models of CO2 air dispersion. The main results obtained are: 1) A general, regional map of CO2 Earth degassing in Central Italy has been elaborated. The total flux of CO2 in the area has been estimated in ~ 10 Mt/a which are released to the atmosphere trough numerous dangerous gas emissions or by degassing spring waters (~ 10 % of the CO2 globally estimated to be released by the Earth trough volcanic activity). 2) An on line, open access, georeferenced database of the main CO2 emissions (~ 250) was settled up (http://googas.ov.ingv.it). CO2 flux > 100 t/d characterise 14% of the degassing sites while CO2 fluxes from 100 t/d to 10 t/d have been estimated for about 35% of the gas emissions. 3) The sites of the gas emissions are not suitable for life: the gas causes many accidents to animals and people. In order to mitigate the gas hazard a specific model of CO2 air dispersion has been developed and applied to the main degassing sites. A relevant application regarded Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Apennines, which is the largest natural emission of low temperature CO2 rich gases, from non-volcanic environment, ever measured in the Earth (˜2000 t/d). Under low wind conditions, the gas flows along a narrow natural channel producing a persistent gas river which has killed over a period of time many people and animals. The application of the physical numerical model allowed us to

  13. A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

    2015-04-01

    Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node

  14. Preparing for Volcanic Hazards: An Examination of Lahar Knowledge, Risk Perception, and Preparedness around Mount Baker and Glacier Peak, WA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

    2015-12-01

    As the number of people living at risk from volcanic hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest continues to rise, so does the need for improved hazard science, mitigation, and response planning. The effectiveness of these efforts relies not only on scientists and policymakers, but on individuals and their risk perception and preparedness levels. This study examines the individual knowledge, perception, and preparedness of over 500 survey respondents living or working within the lahar zones of Mount Baker and Glacier Peak volcanoes. We (1) explore the common disconnect between accurate risk perception and adequate preparedness; (2) determine how participation in hazard response planning influences knowledge, risk perception, and preparedness; and (3) assess the effectiveness of current lahar hazard maps for public risk communication. Results indicate that a disconnect exists between perception and preparedness for the majority of respondents. While 82% of respondents accurately anticipate that future volcanic hazards will impact the Skagit Valley, this knowledge fails to motivate increased preparedness. A majority of respondents also feel "very responsible" for their own protection and provision of resources during a hazardous event (83%) and believe they have the knowledge and skills necessary to respond effectively to such an event (56%); however, many of these individuals still do not adequately prepare. When asked what barriers prevent them from preparing, respondents primarily cite a lack of knowledge about relevant local hazards. Results show that participation in response-related activities—a commonly recommended solution to this disconnect—minimally influences preparedness. Additionally, although local hazard maps successfully communicate the primary hazard—97% of respondents recognize the lahar hazard—many individuals incorrectly interpret other important facets of the maps. Those who participate in response-related activities fail to understand these

  15. Volcanic Hazards Associated with the NE Sector of Tacaná Volcano, Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, S. R.; Saucedo, R.; Macias, J.; Arce, J.; Garcia-Palomo, A.; Mora, J.; Scolamacchia, T.

    2003-12-01

    Tacaná volcano, with a height of 4,030 m above sea level, straddles the southern Mexico/Guatemala border. Last active in 1986, when there was a small phreatic event with a duration of a few days, this volcano presents an impending hazard to over 250,000 people. The NE sector of the volcano reveals the violent volcanic history of Tacaná that may be indicative of a serious potential risk to the area. Its earliest pyroclastic history appears to consist of fall, flow, and surge deposits, together with lavas, that have formed megablocks within a series of old debris avalanche deposits. This sector collapse event is overlain by a sequence of pumice fall and ash flow deposits, of which the youngest, less-altered pumice fall deposit shows a minimum thickness of > 4 m, with a dispersal axis trending toward the NE. A second debris avalanche deposit, separated from the above deposits by a paleosoil, is dominated by megablocks of lava and scoriaceous dome material. The current topography around the northeastern flank of the volcano is determined by a third, and most recent debris avalanche deposit, a thick (> 20 m) sequence of six block and ash flows dated at around 16,000 years BP, each separated by 1-10 cm thick ash cloud surge deposit, together with secondary lahar deposits. These are followed by a at least 4 lava flows that extend 2 km down the flank of the volcano. It appears that the most recent pyroclastic event at Tacaná is also recorded in this sector of the volcano: above the block and ash flows occurs a > 1 m thick ash flow unit that can be seen at least 5 km from the vent. Lastly, the Santa Maria Ash fall deposit, produced in 1902, has capped most of the deposits at Tacaná.

  16. Eruptive dynamics and hazards associated with obsidian bearing ignimbrites of the Geghama Volcanic Highland, Central Armenia: a textural insight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, Zoe; Manning, Christina J.

    2017-04-01

    The Geghama Volcanic highland in central Armenia is an ideal setting to study the young ( 750-25 ka [1]) volcanism that characterises the Lesser Caucasus region. The volcanism in the area is bimodal in composition: the eastern highlands are dominated by numerous monogenetic scoria cones, whilst the west shows more evolved volcanism centered on two obsidian bearing, polygenetic domes (Hatis and Gutanasar) [2]. Activity at Hatis and Gutanasar is thought to have spanned 550ka-200ka [3] and produced a range of products including obsidian flows, ignimbrites and basaltic scoria cones, consistent with long lived and complex magma storage systems. During a similar time period there is evidence for the presence of hominin groups in the surrounding region [3] and it is likely that at least some of the volcanic activity at Hatis and Gutanasar impacted on their distribution [4]. A better understanding of the eruptive behaviour of these volcanoes during this period could therefore shed light on the effect of volcanic activity on the dispersal of man through this period. Whilst large regional studies have striven to better understand the timing and source of volcanism in Armenia, there have been few detailed studies on single volcanoes. Obsidian is ubiquitous within the volcanic material of both Gutanasar and Hatis as lava flows, dome deposits and within ignimbrites. This study aims to better understand the eruptive history of Gutanasar, with specific focus upon the determination of the petrogenetic history of obsidian lenses observed within the ignimbrite deposits. Identification of these obsidians as the result of welding or in-situ melting will help constrain eruptive volumes and flow thickness, important for the reconstruction of palaeo-volcanic hazards. In order to interpret how this obsidian was deposited, macro textural analysis is combined with micro textural measurements of microlite crystals. Quantitative measurements of microlites in obsidian can provide significant

  17. Volcanic lightning and plume behavior reveal evolving hazards during the April 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Eaton, Alexa; Amigo, Álvaro; Bertin, Daniel; Mastin, Larry G.; Giacosa, Raúl E; González, Jerónimo; Valderrama, Oscar; Fontijn, Karen; Behnke, Sonja A

    2016-01-01

    Soon after the onset of an eruption, model forecasts of ash dispersal are used to mitigate the hazards to aircraft, infrastructure and communities downwind. However, it is a significant challenge to constrain the model inputs during an evolving eruption. Here we demonstrate that volcanic lightning may be used in tandem with satellite detection to recognize and quantify changes in eruption style and intensity. Using the eruption of Calbuco volcano in southern Chile on 22-23 April 2015, we investigate rates of umbrella cloud expansion from satellite observations, occurrence of lightning, and mapped characteristics of the fall deposits. Our remote-sensing analysis gives a total erupted volume that is within uncertainty of the mapped volume (0.56 ±0.28 km3 bulk). Observations and volcanic plume modeling further suggest that electrical activity was enhanced both by ice formation in the ash clouds >10 km asl and development of a low-level charge layer from ground-hugging currents.

  18. Updating Parameters for Volcanic Hazard Assessment Using Multi-parameter Monitoring Data Streams And Bayesian Belief Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odbert, Henry; Aspinall, Willy

    2014-05-01

    Evidence-based hazard assessment at volcanoes assimilates knowledge about the physical processes of hazardous phenomena and observations that indicate the current state of a volcano. Incorporating both these lines of evidence can inform our belief about the likelihood (probability) and consequences (impact) of possible hazardous scenarios, forming a basis for formal quantitative hazard assessment. However, such evidence is often uncertain, indirect or incomplete. Approaches to volcano monitoring have advanced substantially in recent decades, increasing the variety and resolution of multi-parameter timeseries data recorded at volcanoes. Interpreting these multiple strands of parallel, partial evidence thus becomes increasingly complex. In practice, interpreting many timeseries requires an individual to be familiar with the idiosyncrasies of the volcano, monitoring techniques, configuration of recording instruments, observations from other datasets, and so on. In making such interpretations, an individual must consider how different volcanic processes may manifest as measureable observations, and then infer from the available data what can or cannot be deduced about those processes. We examine how parts of this process may be synthesised algorithmically using Bayesian inference. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) use probability theory to treat and evaluate uncertainties in a rational and auditable scientific manner, but only to the extent warranted by the strength of the available evidence. The concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple strands of evidence (e.g. observations, model results and interpretations) and their associated uncertainties in a methodical manner. BBNs are usually implemented in graphical form and could be developed as a tool for near real-time, ongoing use in a volcano observatory, for example. We explore the application of BBNs in analysing volcanic data from the long-lived eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat. We discuss

  19. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series for volcanic hazard estimations: Applications to active polygenetic volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza-Rosas, Ana Teresa; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando

    2008-09-01

    The probabilistic analysis of volcanic eruption time series is an essential step for the assessment of volcanic hazard and risk. Such series describe complex processes involving different types of eruptions over different time scales. A statistical method linking geological and historical eruption time series is proposed for calculating the probabilities of future eruptions. The first step of the analysis is to characterize the eruptions by their magnitudes. As is the case in most natural phenomena, lower magnitude events are more frequent, and the behavior of the eruption series may be biased by such events. On the other hand, eruptive series are commonly studied using conventional statistics and treated as homogeneous Poisson processes. However, time-dependent series, or sequences including rare or extreme events, represented by very few data of large eruptions require special methods of analysis, such as the extreme-value theory applied to non-homogeneous Poisson processes. Here we propose a general methodology for analyzing such processes attempting to obtain better estimates of the volcanic hazard. This is done in three steps: Firstly, the historical eruptive series is complemented with the available geological eruption data. The linking of these series is done assuming an inverse relationship between the eruption magnitudes and the occurrence rate of each magnitude class. Secondly, we perform a Weibull analysis of the distribution of repose time between successive eruptions. Thirdly, the linked eruption series are analyzed as a non-homogeneous Poisson process with a generalized Pareto distribution as intensity function. As an application, the method is tested on the eruption series of five active polygenetic Mexican volcanoes: Colima, Citlaltépetl, Nevado de Toluca, Popocatépetl and El Chichón, to obtain hazard estimates.

  20. Comparative lahar hazard mapping at Volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico using SRTM, ASTER and DTED-1 digital topographic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Bernard E.; Sheridan, Michael F.; Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we evaluated and compared the utility of spaceborne SRTM and ASTER DEMs with baseline DTED-1 “bald-earth” topography for mapping lahar inundation hazards from volcan Citlaltépetl, Mexico, a volcano which has had a history of producing debris flows of various extents. In particular, we tested the utility of these topographic datasets for resolving ancient valley-filling deposits exposed around the flanks of the volcano, for determining their magnitude using paleohydrologic methods and for forecasting their inundation limits in the future. We also use the three datasets as inputs to a GIS stream inundation flow model, LAHARZ, and compare the results.

  1. Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) project and a next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takarada, S.

    2012-12-01

    The first Workshop of Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER1) was held in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan from February 23 to 24, 2012. The workshop focused on the formulation of strategies to reduce the risks of disasters worldwide caused by the occurrence of earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. More than 150 participants attended the workshop. During the workshop, the G-EVER1 accord was approved by the participants. The Accord consists of 10 recommendations like enhancing collaboration, sharing of resources, and making information about the risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions freely available and understandable. The G-EVER Hub website (http://g-ever.org) was established to promote the exchange of information and knowledge among the Asia-Pacific countries. Several G-EVER Working Groups and Task Forces were proposed. One of the working groups was tasked to make the next-generation real-time volcano hazard assessment system. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment system is useful for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation at various eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario datasets, volcanic eruption database, and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the future prediction of volcanic eruptions. Compiling volcanic eruption scenarios after a major eruption is also important. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes, and styles, is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results, which only represent a subset of possible future scenarios. Hence, different distributions from the previous deposits are mainly observed due to the differences in

  2. GIS-Based emergency and evacuation planning for volcanic hazards in New Zealand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cole, J. W.; Sabel, C. E.; Blumenthal, E.

    2005-01-01

    (reduction, readiness, response and recovery) can benefit from CIS, including applications related to transportation systems, a critical element in managing effective lifelines in an emergency. This is particularly true immediately before and during a volcanic eruption. The potential for volcanic activity...... in New Zealand is high, with 10 volcanoes or volcanic centres (Auckland, Bay of Islands, Haroharo, Mayor Island, Ruapehu, Taranaki, Tarawera, Taupo, Tongariro (including Ngauruhoe) and White Island) recognised as active or potentially active. In addition there are many active and potentially active...... volcanoes along the Kermadec Island chain. There is a great deal of background information on all of these volcanoes, and GIS is currently being used for some aspects of monitoring (e.g. ERS and Envisat radar interferometry for observing deformation prior to eruptions). If an eruption is considered imminent...

  3. Introducing Geoscience Students to Numerical Modeling of Volcanic Hazards: The example of Tephra2 on VHub.org

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leah M. Courtland

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The Tephra2 numerical model for tephra fallout from explosive volcanic eruptions is specifically designed to enable students to probe ideas in model literacy, including code validation and verification, the role of simplifying assumptions, and the concepts of uncertainty and forecasting. This numerical model is implemented on the VHub.org website, a venture in cyberinfrastructure that brings together volcanological models and educational materials. The VHub.org resource provides students with the ability to explore and execute sophisticated numerical models like Tephra2. We present a strategy for using this model to introduce university students to key concepts in the use and evaluation of Tephra2 for probabilistic forecasting of volcanic hazards. Through this critical examination students are encouraged to develop a deeper understanding of the applicability and limitations of hazard models. Although the model and applications are intended for use in both introductory and advanced geoscience courses, they could easily be adapted to work in other disciplines, such as astronomy, physics, computational methods, data analysis, or computer science.

  4. Neotectonics of Graciosa island (Azores: a contribution to seismic hazard assessment of a volcanic area in a complex geodynamic setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Hipólito

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Graciosa is a mid-Pleistocene to Holocene volcanic island that lies in a complex plate boundary between the North American, Eurasian, and Nubian plates. Large fault scarps displace the oldest (Middle Pleistocene volcanic units, but in the younger areas recent volcanism (Holocene to Upper Pleistocene conceals the surface expression of faulting, limiting neotectonic observations. The large displacement accumulated by the older volcanic units when compared with the younger formations suggests a variability of deformation rates and the possibility of alternating periods of higher and lower tectonic deformation rates; this would increase the recurrence interval of surface rupturing earthquakes. Nevertheless, in historical times a few destructive earthquakes affected the island attesting for its seismic hazard. Regarding the structural data, two main fault systems, incompatible with a single stress field, were identified at Graciosa Island. Thus, it is proposed that the region is affected by two alternating stress fields. The stress field #1 corresponds to the regional stress regime proposed by several authors for the interplate shear zone that constitutes the Azorean segment of the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary. It is suggested that the stress field #2 will act when the area under the influence of the regional stress field #1 narrows as a result of variations in the differential spreading rates north and south of Azores. The islands closer to the edge of the sheared region will temporarily come under the influence of a different (external stress field (stress field #2. Such data support the concept that, in the Azores, the Eurasia-Nubia boundary corresponds to a complex and wide deformation zone, variable in time.

  5. Local seismic hazard assessment in explosive volcanic settings by 3D numerical analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razzano, Roberto; Pagliaroli, Alessandro; Moscatelli, Massimiliano; Gaudiosi, Iolanda; Avalle, Alessandra; Giallini, Silvia; Marcini, Marco; Polpetta, Federica; Simionato, Maurizio; Sirianni, Pietro; Sottili, Gianluca; Vignaroli, Gianluca; Bellanova, Jessica; Calamita, Giuseppe; Perrone, Angela; Piscitelli, Sabatino

    2017-04-01

    This work deals with the assessment of local seismic response in the explosive volcanic settings by reconstructing the subsoil model of the Stracciacappa maar (Sabatini Volcanic District, central Italy), whose pyroclastic succession records eruptive phases ended about 0.09 Ma ago. Heterogeneous characteristics of the Stracciacappa maar (stratification, structural setting, lithotypes, and thickness variation of depositional units) make it an ideal case history for understanding mechanisms and processes leading to modifications of amplitude-frequency-duration of seismic waves generated at earthquake sources and propagating through volcanic settings. New geological map and cross sections, constrained with recently acquired geotechnical and geophysical data, illustrate the complex geometric relationships among different depositional units forming the maar. A composite interfingering between internal lacustrine sediments and epiclastic debris, sourced from the rim, fills the crater floor; a 45 meters thick continuous coring borehole was drilled in the maar with sampling of undisturbed samples. Electrical Resistivity Tomography surveys and 2D passive seismic arrays were also carried out for constraining the geological model and the velocity profile of the S-waves, respectively. Single station noise measurements were collected in order to define natural amplification frequencies. Finally, the nonlinear cyclic soil behaviour was investigated through simple shear tests on the undisturbed samples. The collected dataset was used to define the subsoil model for 3D finite difference site response numerical analyses by using FLAC 3D software (ITASCA). Moreover, 1D and 2D numerical analyses were carried out for comparison purposes. Two different scenarios were selected as input motions: a moderate magnitude (volcanic event) and a high magnitude (tectonic event). Both earthquake scenarios revealed significant ground motion amplification (up to 15 in terms of spectral acceleration

  6. Volcanic Risk Perception and Preparedness in Communities within the Mount Baker and Glacier Peak Lahar Hazard Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corwin, K.; Brand, B. D.

    2014-12-01

    A community's ability to effectively respond to and recover from natural hazards depends on both the physical characteristics of the hazard and the community's inherent resilience. Resilience is shaped by a number of factors including the residents' perception of and preparedness for a natural hazard as well as the level of institutional preparedness. This study examines perception of and preparedness for lahar hazards from Mount Baker and Glacier Peak in Washington's Skagit Valley. Through an online survey, this study isolates the influence of specific variables (e.g., knowledge, past experience, scientific background, trust in various information sources, occupation, self-efficacy, sense of community) on risk perception and explores reasons behind the frequent disconnect between perception and preparedness. We anticipate that individuals with more extensive education in the sciences, especially geology or earth science, foster greater trust in scientists and a more accurate knowledge, understanding, and perception of the volcanic hazards in their community. Additionally, little research exists examining the extent to which first responders and leaders in response-related institutions prepare on a personal level. Since these individuals work toward community preparedness professionally, we hypothesize that they will be more prepared at home than members of the general public. Finally, the Skagit Valley has a significant history of flooding. We expect that the need to respond to and recover from frequent flooding creates a community with an inherently higher level of preparedness for other hazards such as lahars. The results of this study will contribute to the understanding of what controls risk perception and the interplay between perception and preparedness. At a broader level, this study provides local and state-level emergency managers information to evaluate and improve response capabilities and communication with the public and key institutions in order to

  7. Assessing volcanic hazard at the most populated caldera in the world: Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somma, R.; de Natale, G.; Troise, C.; Kilburn, C.; Moretti, R.

    2017-12-01

    Naples and its hinterland in Southern Italy are one of the most urbanized areas in the world under threat from volcanic activity. The region lies within range of three active volcanic centers: Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The Campi Flegrei caldera, in particular, has been in unrest for six decades. The unrest followed four centuries of quiescence and has heightened concern about an increased potential for eruption. Innovative geochemical and geophysical analysis, combined with scientific drilling, are being used to investigate Campi Flegrei. Results highlight key directions for better understanding the mechanisms of caldera formation and the respective roles of magma intrusion and hydrothermal activity in determining the volcano's behavior. They also provide a framework for evaluating and mitigating the risk from this caldera and other large ones worldwide.

  8. Spreading of Somma-Vesuvio Volcanic Complex: is the Hazard for Plinian Eruptions being reduced?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borgia, A.; Tizzani, P.; Solaro, G.; Luongo, G.; Fusi, N.

    2003-12-01

    Contrary to what is the common knowledge, a detailed structural study of active faulting and rifting of the summit area of Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex, combined with INSAR, levelling data and seismic profiling at sea suggests that the present-day long-term dynamic behaviour of the complex and of its summit caldera is characterized by volcanic spreading. The structural evolution is controlled by a number of asymmetric, intersecting leaf-grabens. The boundary faults of these grabens intersect at different angles the Somma caldera walls generating a set of wedge-horsts. While normal faulting characterizes the Somma caldera walls, the lavas of the past 150 years, infilling the caldera, have been rifted all around the southern, eastern and northern base of Vesuvio's cone, which, in turn, is being displaced seaward. Associated to the subsidence and extension of the summit area, relative uplift occurs along the coast; in addition, deformation of recent sediments 6-18 km offshore also indicate compression and uplift, which appears to be unrelated to regional tectonics. A preliminary evaluation indicates that rifting of the lavas is in the order of 1-2 mm/a with a southwestward average direction of displacement. Based on these data, we suggest that a wide sector of Somma-Vesuvio is spreading on its plastic sedimentary substratum, which have been identified by drilling. Volcanic spreading appears to have controlled the magmatic evolution and the energy decrease of major historic explosive eruptions since 79 AD. If our interpretation is correct, major plinian eruptions should not occur in the near future. On the other hand, rifting around the caldera suggests that volcanic activity could soon be renewed.

  9. Geoethics implications in volcanic hazards in Argentina: 24 years of uninterrupted ash-fall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovere, Elizabeth I.; Violante, Roberto A.; Uber, Silvia M.; Vázquez Herrera, Marcelo

    2016-04-01

    The impact of falling ash reaches all human activities, has effects on human and animal health and is subject to climate and ecosystem of the affected regions. From 1991 until 2015 (24 years), more than 5 eruptions with VEI ≥ 4 in the Southern Volcanic Zone of the Andes occurred; pyroclastic, dust and volcanic ash were deposited (mostly) in Argentina. A recurring situation during eruptions of Hudson (1991), Chaiten (2008), Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (2011) and Calbuco (2015) volcanoes was the accumulation, storage and dump of volcanic ash in depressed areas, beaches, lakes, ditches, storm drains, areas of landfills and transfer stations. The issues that this practice has taken are varied: pollution of aquifers, changes in geomorphology and water courses, usually in "inconspicuous" zones, often in places where there are precarious population or high poverty settlements. The consequences are not immediate but the effects in the mid and long term bring serious drawbacks. On the contrary, a good example of intelligent management of the volcanic impact occurred many years before, during the eruption of Descabezado Grande (Quizapu) volcano in 1932. In that case, and as an example, the city of Trenque Lauquen, located nearly 770 km east of the volcano, decided a communitarian task of collection and burial of the ashfall in small areas, this was a very successful performance. The Quizapu ash plumes transported by the Westerlies (winds) covered with a blanket of volcanic ash the city, ashfall also reached the capital cities of Argentina (Buenos Aires) and Uruguay (Montevideo). Also, the bagging process of volcanic ash with reinforced plastics was an example of Good Practice in the management of the emergency. This allowed the entire affected community to take advantage of this "mineral resource" and contributes to achieving collective and participatory work leading to commercialization and sustainability of these products availed as fertilizers, granular base for ceramics and

  10. Volcanic-Ash Hazards to Aviation—Changes and Challenges since the 2010 Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guffanti, M.; Tupper, A.; Mastin, L. G.; Lechner, P.

    2012-12-01

    In response to the severe disruptions to civil aviation that resulted from atmospheric transport of ash from the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland in April and May 2010, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) quickly formed the International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF), charging it to support the accelerated development of a global risk-management framework for volcanic-ash hazards to aviation. Recognizing the need for scientifically based advice on best methods to detect ash in the atmosphere and depict zones of hazardous airspace, the IVATF sought input from the global scientific community, primarily by means of the Volcanic Ash Scientific Advisory Group which was established in May 2010 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics to serve as a scientific resource for ICAO. The IVATF finished its work in June 2012 (see http://www.icao.int/safety/meteorology/ivatf/Pages/default.aspx for a record of its results). A major science-based outcome is that production of charts depicting areas of airspace expected to have specific ash-concentration values (e.g. 4 mg/cu. m) will not be required of the world's nine Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAACs). The VAACs are responsible for issuing warning information to the aviation sector regarding ash-cloud position and expected movement. Forecast concentrations in these charts are based primarily on dispersion models that have at least an order of magnitude in uncertainty in their output and therefore do not delineate hazardous airspace with the level of confidence needed by the aviation sector. The recommended approach to improving model-forecast accuracy is to assimilate diverse observations (e.g., satellite thermal-infrared measurements, lidar, radar, direct airborne sampling, visual sightings, etc.) into model simulations; doing that during an eruption in the demanding environment of aviation operations is a substantial challenge. A

  11. Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madankan, R. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pouget, S. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Singla, P., E-mail: psingla@buffalo.edu [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Bursik, M. [Department of Geology, University at Buffalo (United States); Dehn, J. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States); Jones, M. [Center for Computational Research, University at Buffalo (United States); Patra, A. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Pavolonis, M. [NOAA-NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research (United States); Pitman, E.B. [Department of Mathematics, University at Buffalo (United States); Singh, T. [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University at Buffalo (United States); Webley, P. [Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska, Fairbanks (United States)

    2014-08-15

    Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This paper presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.

  12. Material Selection for Cable Gland to Improved Reliability of the High-hazard Industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vashchuk, S. P.; Slobodyan, S. M.; Deeva, V. S.; Vashchuk, D. S.

    2018-01-01

    The sealed cable glands (SCG) are available to ensure safest connection sheathed single wire for the hazard production facility (nuclear power plant and others) the same as pilot cable, control cables, radio-frequency cables et al. In this paper, we investigate the specifics of the material selection of SCG with the express aim of hazardous man-made facility. We discuss the safe working conditions for cable glands. The research indicates the sintering powdered metals cables provide the reliability growth due to their properties. A number of studies have demonstrated the verification of material selection. On the face of it, we make findings indicating that double glazed sealed units could enhance reliability. We had evaluated sample reliability under fire conditions, seismic load, and pressure containment failure. We used the samples mineral insulated thermocouple cable.

  13. External hazards in reliability and risk assessment of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stevenson, J.D.

    1977-01-01

    It is current practice in the design of nuclear power generating stations to protect against the effects of significant natural and man-made external hazards which can occur at the plant site in excess of those hazards normally considered for conventional facilities. This paper is meant to identify those postulated external hazards typically considered in nuclear facility design. The paper also attempts to fulfill the following four objectives: (1) Define the current state of the art in applying reliability and risk analysis to determine external hazard design requirements. (2) Provide a ready source of literature references applicable to probabilistic design for extreme loads. (3) Provide some quantitative probability assessment estimates of external hazards. (4) Develop exclusion criteria by which postulated external hazards can be eliminated as a design basis. Rigorous evaluation of the design requirements for nuclear power plant facilities based on principles of probability and risk analysis is just beginning. It is hoped these techniques will be used more extensively in the future to provide a more rational basis for developing design requirements. (orig.) [de

  14. Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mani, Lara; Cole, Paul D.; Stewart, Iain

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents the findings from a study aimed at understanding whether video games (or serious games) can be effective in enhancing volcanic hazard education and communication. Using the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent, we have developed a video game - St. Vincent's Volcano - for use in existing volcano education and outreach sessions. Its twin aims are to improve residents' knowledge of potential future eruptive hazards (ash fall, pyroclastic flows and lahars) and to integrate traditional methods of education in a more interactive manner. Here, we discuss the process of game development including concept design through to the final implementation on St. Vincent. Preliminary results obtained from the final implementation (through pre- and post-test knowledge quizzes) for both student and adult participants provide indications that a video game of this style may be effective in improving a learner's knowledge. Both groups of participants demonstrated a post-test increase in their knowledge quiz score of 9.3 % for adults and 8.3 % for students and, when plotted as learning gains (Hake, 1998), show similar overall improvements (0.11 for adults and 0.09 for students). These preliminary findings may provide a sound foundation for the increased integration of emerging technologies within traditional education sessions. This paper also shares some of the challenges and lessons learnt throughout the development and testing processes and provides recommendations for researchers looking to pursue a similar study.

  15. Pyroclastic Density Current Hazards in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, B. D.; Gravley, D.; Clarke, A. B.; Bloomberg, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    The most dangerous phenomena associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions are dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). These are turbulent, ground-hugging sediment gravity currents that travel radially away from the explosive center at up to 100 m/s. The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), New Zealand, consists of approximately 50 eruptive centers, at least 39 of which have had explosive phreatomagmatic behaviour. A primary concern for future AVF eruptions is the impact of dilute PDCs in and around the Auckland area. We combine field observations from the Maungataketake tuff ring, which has one of the best exposures of dilute PDC deposits in the AVF, with a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, steady-state, depth-averaged dilute PDC (modified from Bursik and Woods, 1996 Bull Volcanol 58:175-193). The model allows us to explore the depositional mechanisms, macroscale current dynamics, and potential impact on societal infrastructure of dilute PDCs from a future AVF eruption. The lower portion of the Maungataketake tuff ring pyroclastic deposits contains trunks, limbs and fragments of Podocarp trees (strength of the wood, we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) of 10-75 kPa are necessary to topple trees of this size and composition. Thus the two main criteria for model success based on the field evidence include (a) Pdyn must be >10 kPa nearer than 0.9 km to the vent, and 35 kPa can be expected within 3 km from source, ensuring complete destruction of the area; Pdyn > 15 kPa up to 5 km from source, resulting in heavy structural damage to most buildings and near destruction of weaker buildings; and Pdyn <10 kPa at ~6 km from source, resulting in severe damage to weaker structures at least up to this distance. This exercise illustrates our ability to combine field measurements with numerical techniques to explore controlling parameters of dilute PDC dynamics. These tools can be used to understand and estimate the damage potential and

  16. Assessment of volcanic and tectonic hazards to high level radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallmann, P.C.; Miller, I.; Kossik, R.

    1993-01-01

    Golder Associates Inc. (GAI) has developed a computer program (RIP) for performing probabilistic total system performance assessment and site characterization strategy evaluation which can be applied in an iterative manner to evaluate repository site suitability and to guide characterization activities. The performance assessment model incorporated in RIP has three basic component models: (1) waste package behavior, (2) radionuclide transport pathways, and (3) disruptive events. Classes of disruptive events are specified in RIP by (1) a disruption rate (events/yr.), (2) open-quotes event descriptorsclose quotes which describe event characteristics and magnitude, and (3) the consequences associated with an event. One of the strengths of RIP is its flexibility, which allows it to evaluate different sites and conceptual models. Examples of seismic and volcanic disruptive event models constructed by GAI for Yucca Mountain are presented. Analysis of the results of these models indicates that for the simulated models, neither of these event classes significantly impacts the performance of the proposed repository over a 10,000 year time span

  17. Toward a pro-active scientific advice on global volcanic activity within the multi-hazard framework of the EU Aristotle project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsotti, Sara; Duncan, Melanie; Loughlin, Susan; Gísladóttir, Bryndis; Roberts, Matthew; Karlsdóttir, Sigrún; Scollo, Simona; Salerno, Giuseppe; Corsaro, Rosa Anna; Charalampakis, Marinos; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

    2017-04-01

    The demand for timely analysis and advice on global volcanic activity from scientists is growing. At the same time, decision-makers require more than an understanding of hazards; they need to know what impacts to expect from ongoing and future events. ARISTOTLE (All Risk Integrated System TOwards Trans-boundary hoListic Early-warning) is a two-year EC funded pilot project designed to do just that. The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) works to support and coordinate response to disasters both inside and outside Europe using resources from the countries participating in the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism. Led by INGV and ZAMG, the ARISTOTLE consortium comprises 15 institutions across Europe and aims to deliver multi-hazard advice on natural events, including their potential interactions and impact, both inside and outside of Europe to the ERCC. Where possible, the ERCC would like a pro-active provision of scientific advice by the scientific group. Iceland Met Office leads the volcanic hazards work, with BGS, INGV and NOA comprising the volcano observatory team. At this stage, the volcanology component of the project comprises mainly volcanic ash and gas dispersal and potential impact on population and ground-based critical infrastructures. We approach it by relying upon available and official volcano monitoring institutions' reporting of activity, existing assessments and global databases of past events, modelling tools, remote-sensing observational systems and official VAAC advisories. We also make use of global assessments of volcanic hazards, country profiles, exposure and proxy indicators of threat to livelihoods, infrastructure and economic assets (e.g. Global Volcano Model outputs). Volcanic ash fall remains the only hazard modelled at the global scale. Volcanic risk assessments remain in their infancy, owing to challenges related to the multitude of hazards, data availability and model representation. We therefore face a number of

  18. Automatized near-real-time short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra dispersion before eruptions: BET_VHst for Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei during recent exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmtri; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2015-04-01

    Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short temporal intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology named BET_VHst (Selva et al. 2014) for short-term PVHA of volcanic tephra dispersal based on automatic interpretation of measures from the monitoring system and physical models of tephra dispersal from all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes based on frequently updated meteorological forecasts. The large uncertainty at all the steps required for the analysis, both aleatory and epistemic, is treated by means of Bayesian inference and statistical mixing of long- and short-term analyses. The BET_VHst model is here presented through its implementation during two exercises organized for volcanoes in the Neapolitan area: MESIMEX for Mt. Vesuvius, and VUELCO for Campi Flegrei. References Selva J., Costa A., Sandri L., Macedonio G., Marzocchi W. (2014) Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: a case study for tephra fallout, J. Geophys. Res., 119, doi: 10.1002/2014JB011252

  19. Modeling the bathtub shape hazard rate function in terms of reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, K.S.; Hsu, F.S.; Liu, P.P.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, a general form of bathtub shape hazard rate function is proposed in terms of reliability. The degradation of system reliability comes from different failure mechanisms, in particular those related to (1) random failures, (2) cumulative damage, (3) man-machine interference, and (4) adaptation. The first item is referred to the modeling of unpredictable failures in a Poisson process, i.e. it is shown by a constant. Cumulative damage emphasizes the failures owing to strength deterioration and therefore the possibility of system sustaining the normal operation load decreases with time. It depends on the failure probability, 1-R. This representation denotes the memory characteristics of the second failure cause. Man-machine interference may lead to a positive effect in the failure rate due to learning and correction, or negative from the consequence of human inappropriate habit in system operations, etc. It is suggested that this item is correlated to the reliability, R, as well as the failure probability. Adaptation concerns with continuous adjusting between the mating subsystems. When a new system is set on duty, some hidden defects are explored and disappeared eventually. Therefore, the reliability decays combined with decreasing failure rate, which is expressed as a power of reliability. Each of these phenomena brings about the failures independently and is described by an additive term in the hazard rate function h(R), thus the overall failure behavior governed by a number of parameters is found by fitting the evidence data. The proposed model is meaningful in capturing the physical phenomena occurring during the system lifetime and provides for simpler and more effective parameter fitting than the usually adopted 'bathtub' procedures. Five examples of different type of failure mechanisms are taken in the validation of the proposed model. Satisfactory results are found from the comparisons

  20. Scientific and public responses to the ongoing volcanic crisis at Popocatépetl Volcano, Mexico: Importance of an effective hazards-warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Tilling, Robert I.

    2008-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions and other potentially hazardous natural phenomena occur independently of any human actions. However, such phenomena can cause disasters when a society fails to foresee the hazardous manifestations and adopt adequate measures to reduce its vulnerability. One of the causes of such a failure is the lack of a consistent perception of the changing hazards posed by an ongoing eruption, i.e., with members of the scientific community, the Civil Protection authorities and the general public having diverging notions about what is occurring and what may happen. The problem of attaining a perception of risk as uniform as possible in a population measured in millions during an evolving eruption requires searching for communication tools that can describe—as simply as possible—the relations between the level of threat posed by the volcano, and the level of response of the authorities and the public. The hazards-warning system adopted at Popocatépetl Volcano, called the Volcanic Traffic Light Alert System(VTLAS), is a basic communications protocol that translates volcano threat into seven levels of preparedness for the emergency-management authorities, but only three levels of alert for the public (color coded green–yellow–red). The changing status of the volcano threat is represented as the most likely scenarios according to the opinions of an official scientific committee analyzing all available data. The implementation of the VTLAS was intended to reduce the possibility of ambiguous interpretations of intermediate levels by the endangered population. Although the VTLAS is imperfect and has not solved all problems involved in mass communication and decision-making during a volcanic crisis, it marks a significant advance in the management of volcanic crises in Mexico.

  1. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chiara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2014-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico's most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene-Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl's reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the "Ochre Pumice" Plinian eruption (4965 14C yr BP

  2. Long-range hazard assessment of volcanic ash dispersal for a Plinian eruptive scenario at Popocatépetl volcano (Mexico): implications for civil aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasia, Rosanna; Scaini, Chirara; Capra, Lucia; Nathenson, Manuel; Siebe, Claus; Arana-Salinas, Lilia; Folch, Arnau

    2013-01-01

    Popocatépetl is one of Mexico’s most active volcanoes threatening a densely populated area that includes Mexico City with more than 20 million inhabitants. The destructive potential of this volcano is demonstrated by its Late Pleistocene–Holocene eruptive activity, which has been characterized by recurrent Plinian eruptions of large magnitude, the last two of which destroyed human settlements in pre-Hispanic times. Popocatépetl’s reawakening in 1994 produced a crisis that culminated with the evacuation of two villages on the northeastern flank of the volcano. Shortly after, a monitoring system and a civil protection contingency plan based on a hazard zone map were implemented. The current volcanic hazards map considers the potential occurrence of different volcanic phenomena, including pyroclastic density currents and lahars. However, no quantitative assessment of the tephra hazard, especially related to atmospheric dispersal, has been performed. The presence of airborne volcanic ash at low and jet-cruise atmospheric levels compromises the safety of aircraft operations and forces re-routing of aircraft to prevent encounters with volcanic ash clouds. Given the high number of important airports in the surroundings of Popocatépetl volcano and considering the potential threat posed to civil aviation in Mexico and adjacent regions in case of a Plinian eruption, a hazard assessment for tephra dispersal is required. In this work, we present the first probabilistic tephra dispersal hazard assessment for Popocatépetl volcano. We compute probabilistic hazard maps for critical thresholds of airborne ash concentrations at different flight levels, corresponding to the situation defined in Europe during 2010, and still under discussion. Tephra dispersal mode is performed using the FALL3D numerical model. Probabilistic hazard maps are built for a Plinian eruptive scenario defined on the basis of geological field data for the “Ochre Pumice” Plinian eruption (4965 14C

  3. Integrating multidisciplinary science, modelling and impact data into evolving, syn-event volcanic hazard mapping and communication: A case study from the 2012 Tongariro eruption crisis, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Graham S.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Thomas M.; Procter, Jonathan N.; Scott, Bradley J.; Keys, Harry J.; Jolly, Gill E.; Wardman, Johnny B.; Cronin, Shane J.; McBride, Sara K.

    2014-10-01

    New Zealand's Tongariro National Park volcanoes produce hazardous eruptions every few years to decades. On 6 August 2012 the Te Maari vent of Tongariro Volcano erupted, producing a series of explosions and a fine ash of minor volume which was dispersed rapidly to the east. This manuscript presents a summary of the eruption impacts and the way these supported science communication during the crisis, particularly in terms of hazard map development. The most significant proximal impact was damage from pyroclastic surges and ballistics to the popular and economically-important Tongariro Alpine Crossing track. The only hazard to affect the medial impact zone was a few mms of ashfall with minor impacts. Field testing indicated that the Te Maari ash had extremely low resistivity when wetted, implying a very high potential to cause disruption to nationally-important power transmission networks via the mechanism of insulator flashover. This was not observed, presumably due to insufficient ash accumulation on insulators. Virtually no impacts from distal ashfall were reported. Post-event analysis of PM10 data demonstrates the additional value of regional air quality monitoring networks in quantifying population exposure to airborne respirable ash. While the eruption was minor, it generated a high level of public interest and a demand for information on volcanic hazards and impacts from emergency managers, the public, critical infrastructure managers, health officials, and the agriculture sector. Meeting this demand fully taxed available resources. We present here aspects of the New Zealand experience which may have wider applicability in moving towards improved integration of hazard impact information, mapping, and communication. These include wide use of a wiki technical clearinghouse and email listservs, a focus on multi-agency consistent messages, and a recently developed environment of collaboration and alignment of both research funding and technical science advice

  4. A reliable simultaneous representation of seismic hazard and of ground shaking recurrence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peresan, A.; Panza, G. F.; Magrin, A.; Vaccari, F.

    2015-12-01

    Different earthquake hazard maps may be appropriate for different purposes - such as emergency management, insurance and engineering design. Accounting for the lower occurrence rate of larger sporadic earthquakes may allow to formulate cost-effective policies in some specific applications, provided that statistically sound recurrence estimates are used, which is not typically the case of PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment). We illustrate the procedure to associate the expected ground motions from Neo-deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (NDSHA) to an estimate of their recurrence. Neo-deterministic refers to a scenario-based approach, which allows for the construction of a broad range of earthquake scenarios via full waveforms modeling. From the synthetic seismograms the estimates of peak ground acceleration, velocity and displacement, or any other parameter relevant to seismic engineering, can be extracted. NDSHA, in its standard form, defines the hazard computed from a wide set of scenario earthquakes (including the largest deterministically or historically defined credible earthquake, MCE) and it does not supply the frequency of occurrence of the expected ground shaking. A recent enhanced variant of NDSHA that reliably accounts for recurrence has been developed and it is applied to the Italian territory. The characterization of the frequency-magnitude relation can be performed by any statistically sound method supported by data (e.g. multi-scale seismicity model), so that a recurrence estimate is associated to each of the pertinent sources. In this way a standard NDSHA map of ground shaking is obtained simultaneously with the map of the corresponding recurrences. The introduction of recurrence estimates in NDSHA naturally allows for the generation of ground shaking maps at specified return periods. This permits a straightforward comparison between NDSHA and PSHA maps.

  5. Seismic waves in 3-D: from mantle asymmetries to reliable seismic hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panza, Giuliano F.; Romanelli, Fabio

    2014-10-01

    A global cross-section of the Earth parallel to the tectonic equator (TE) path, the great circle representing the equator of net lithosphere rotation, shows a difference in shear wave velocities between the western and eastern flanks of the three major oceanic rift basins. The low-velocity layer in the upper asthenosphere, at a depth range of 120 to 200 km, is assumed to represent the decoupling between the lithosphere and the underlying mantle. Along the TE-perturbed (TE-pert) path, a ubiquitous LVZ, about 1,000-km-wide and 100-km-thick, occurs in the asthenosphere. The existence of the TE-pert is a necessary prerequisite for the existence of a continuous global flow within the Earth. Ground-shaking scenarios were constructed using a scenario-based method for seismic hazard analysis (NDSHA), using realistic and duly validated synthetic time series, and generating a data bank of several thousands of seismograms that account for source, propagation, and site effects. Accordingly, with basic self-organized criticality concepts, NDSHA permits the integration of available information provided by the most updated seismological, geological, geophysical, and geotechnical databases for the site of interest, as well as advanced physical modeling techniques, to provide a reliable and robust background for the development of a design basis for cultural heritage and civil infrastructures. Estimates of seismic hazard obtained using the NDSHA and standard probabilistic approaches are compared for the Italian territory, and a case-study is discussed. In order to enable a reliable estimation of the ground motion response to an earthquake, three-dimensional velocity models have to be considered, resulting in a new, very efficient, analytical procedure for computing the broadband seismic wave-field in a 3-D anelastic Earth model.

  6. Reliability and effectiveness of early warning systems for natural hazards: Concept and application to debris flow warning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) are increasingly applied to mitigate the risks posed by natural hazards. To compare the effect of EWS with alternative risk reduction measures and to optimize their design and operation, their reliability and effectiveness must be quantified. In the present contribution, a framework approach to the evaluation of threshold-based EWS for natural hazards is presented. The system reliability is classically represented by the Probability of Detection (POD) and Probability of False Alarms (PFA). We demonstrate how the EWS effectiveness, which is a measure of risk reduction, can be formulated as a function of POD and PFA. To model the EWS and compute the reliability, we develop a framework based on Bayesian Networks, which is further extended to a decision graph, facilitating the optimization of the warning system. In a case study, the framework is applied to the assessment of an existing debris flow EWS. The application demonstrates the potential of the framework for identifying the important factors influencing the effectiveness of the EWS and determining optimal warning strategies and system configurations. - Highlights: • Warning systems are increasingly applied measures to reduce natural hazard risks. • Bayesian Networks (BN) are powerful tools to quantify warning system's reliability. • The effectiveness is defined to assess the optimality of warning systems. • By extending BNs to decision graphs, the optimal warning strategy is identified. • Sensors positioning significantly influence the effectiveness of warning systems

  7. Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards: Part II. Validation of satellite-derived Volcanic Sulphur Dioxide Levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koukouli, MariLiza; Balis, Dimitris; Dimopoulos, Spiros; Clarisse, Lieven; Carboni, Elisa; Hedelt, Pascal; Spinetti, Claudia; Theys, Nicolas; Tampellini, Lucia; Zehner, Claus

    2014-05-01

    The eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in the spring of 2010 turned the attention of both the public and the scientific community to the susceptibility of the European airspace to the outflows of large volcanic eruptions. The ash-rich plume from Eyjafjallajökull drifted towards Europe and caused major disruptions of European air traffic for several weeks affecting the everyday life of millions of people and with a strong economic impact. This unparalleled situation revealed limitations in the decision making process due to the lack of information on the tolerance to ash of commercial aircraft engines as well as limitations in the ash monitoring and prediction capabilities. The European Space Agency project Satellite Monitoring of Ash and Sulphur Dioxide for the mitigation of Aviation Hazards, was introduced to facilitate the development of an optimal End-to-End System for Volcanic Ash Plume Monitoring and Prediction. This system is based on comprehensive satellite-derived ash plume and sulphur dioxide [SO2] level estimates, as well as a widespread validation using supplementary satellite, aircraft and ground-based measurements. The validation of volcanic SO2 levels extracted from the sensors GOME-2/MetopA and IASI/MetopA are shown here with emphasis on the total column observed right before, during and after the Eyjafjallajökull 2010 eruptions. Co-located ground-based Brewer Spectrophotometer data extracted from the World Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation Data Centre, WOUDC, were compared to the different satellite estimates. The findings are presented at length, alongside a comprehensive discussion of future scenarios.

  8. Operational short-term Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment of tephra fallout: an example from the 1982-1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Costa, Antonio; Macedonio, Giovanni; Marzocchi, Warner

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) represents the most complete scientific contribution for planning rational strategies aimed at mitigating the risk posed by volcanic activity at different time scales. The definition of the space-time window for PVHA is related to the kind of risk mitigation actions that are under consideration. Short intervals (days to weeks) are important for short-term risk mitigation actions like the evacuation of a volcanic area. During volcanic unrest episodes or eruptions, it is of primary importance to produce short-term tephra fallout forecast, and frequently update it to account for the rapidly evolving situation. This information is obviously crucial for crisis management, since tephra may heavily affect building stability, public health, transportations and evacuation routes (airports, trains, road traffic) and lifelines (electric power supply). In this study, we propose a methodology for the short-term PVHA and its operational implementation, based on the model BET_EF, in which measures from the monitoring system are used to routinely update the forecast of some parameters related to the eruption dynamics, that is, the probabilities of eruption, of every possible vent position and every possible eruption size. Then, considering all possible vent positions and eruptive sizes, tephra dispersal models are coupled with frequently updated meteorological forecasts. Finally, these results are merged through a Bayesian procedure, accounting for epistemic uncertainties at all the considered steps. As case study we retrospectively study some stages of the volcanic unrest that took place in Campi Flegrei (CF) in 1982-1984. In particular, we aim at presenting a practical example of possible operational tephra fall PVHA on a daily basis, in the surroundings of CF at different stages of the 1982-84 unrest. Tephra dispersal is simulated using the analytical HAZMAP code. We consider three possible eruptive sizes (a low, a medium and a

  9. Debris avalanches and debris flows transformed from collapses in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, Mexico - behavior, and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, L.; Macías, J. L.; Scott, K. M.; Abrams, M.; Garduño-Monroy, V. H.

    2002-03-01

    Volcanoes of the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) have yielded numerous sector and flank collapses during Pleistocene and Holocene times. Sector collapses associated with magmatic activity have yielded debris avalanches with generally limited runout extent (e.g. Popocatépetl, Jocotitlán, and Colima volcanoes). In contrast, flank collapses (smaller failures not involving the volcano summit), both associated and unassociated with magmatic activity and correlating with intense hydrothermal alteration in ice-capped volcanoes, commonly have yielded highly mobile cohesive debris flows (e.g. Pico de Orizaba and Nevado de Toluca volcanoes). Collapse orientation in the TMVB is preferentially to the south and northeast, probably reflecting the tectonic regime of active E-W and NNW faults. The differing mobilities of the flows transformed from collapses have important implications for hazard assessment. Both sector and flank collapse can yield highly mobile debris flows, but this transformation is more common in the cases of the smaller failures. High mobility is related to factors such as water content and clay content of the failed material, the paleotopography, and the extent of entrainment of sediment during flow (bulking). The ratio of fall height to runout distance commonly used for hazard zonation of debris avalanches is not valid for debris flows, which are more effectively modeled with the relation inundated area to failure or flow volume coupled with the topography of the inundated area.

  10. Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: A study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damby, David; Horwell, Claire J.; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

    2017-01-01

    BackgroundThe eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland’s volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. MethodsA physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. ResultsIcelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% < 4 μm), but the samples did not display physicochemical characteristics of pathogenic particulate in terms of composition or morphology. Ash particles were generally angular, being composed of fragmented glass and crystals. Few fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m2 g−1, which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO•), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after ‘refreshing’ sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m−2, with mafic samples releasing more iron

  11. Assessment of the potential respiratory hazard of volcanic ash from future Icelandic eruptions: a study of archived basaltic to rhyolitic ash samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damby, David E; Horwell, Claire J; Larsen, Gudrun; Thordarson, Thorvaldur; Tomatis, Maura; Fubini, Bice; Donaldson, Ken

    2017-09-11

    The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Grímsvötn (2011), Iceland, triggered immediate, international consideration of the respiratory health hazard of inhaling volcanic ash, and prompted the need to estimate the potential hazard posed by future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to Icelandic and Northern European populations. A physicochemical characterization and toxicological assessment was conducted on a suite of archived ash samples spanning the spectrum of past eruptions (basaltic to rhyolitic magmatic composition) of Icelandic volcanoes following a protocol specifically designed by the International Volcanic Health Hazard Network. Icelandic ash can be of a respirable size (up to 11.3 vol.% fiber-like particles were observed, but those present comprised glass or sodium oxides, and are not related to pathogenic natural fibers, like asbestos or fibrous zeolites, thereby limiting concern of associated respiratory diseases. None of the samples contained cristobalite or tridymite, and only one sample contained quartz, minerals of interest due to the potential to cause silicosis. Sample surface areas are low, ranging from 0.4 to 1.6 m 2  g -1 , which aligns with analyses on ash from other eruptions worldwide. All samples generated a low level of hydroxyl radicals (HO • ), a measure of surface reactivity, through the iron-catalyzed Fenton reaction compared to concurrently analyzed comparative samples. However, radical generation increased after 'refreshing' sample surfaces, indicating that newly erupted samples may display higher reactivity. A composition-dependent range of available surface iron was measured after a 7-day incubation, from 22.5 to 315.7 μmol m -2 , with mafic samples releasing more iron than silicic samples. All samples were non-reactive in a test of red blood cell-membrane damage. The primary particle-specific concern is the potential for future eruptions of Iceland's volcanoes to generate fine, respirable material and, thus, to

  12. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  13. Probabilistic Volcanic Multi-Hazard Assessment at Somma-Vesuvius (Italy): coupling Bayesian Belief Networks with a physical model for lahar propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierz, Pablo; Woodhouse, Mark; Phillips, Jeremy; Sandri, Laura; Selva, Jacopo; Marzocchi, Warner; Odbert, Henry

    2017-04-01

    Volcanoes are extremely complex physico-chemical systems where magma formed at depth breaks into the planet's surface resulting in major hazards from local to global scales. Volcano physics are dominated by non-linearities, and complicated spatio-temporal interrelationships which make volcanic hazards stochastic (i.e. not deterministic) by nature. In this context, probabilistic assessments are required to quantify the large uncertainties related to volcanic hazards. Moreover, volcanoes are typically multi-hazard environments where different hazardous processes can occur whether simultaneously or in succession. In particular, explosive volcanoes are able to accumulate, through tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs), large amounts of pyroclastic material into the drainage basins surrounding the volcano. This addition of fresh particulate material alters the local/regional hydrogeological equilibrium and increases the frequency and magnitude of sediment-rich aqueous flows, commonly known as lahars. The initiation and volume of rain-triggered lahars may depend on: rainfall intensity and duration; antecedent rainfall; terrain slope; thickness, permeability and hydraulic diffusivity of the tephra deposit; etc. Quantifying these complex interrelationships (and their uncertainties), in a tractable manner, requires a structured but flexible probabilistic approach. A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is a directed acyclic graph that allows the representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of uncertain variables in a compact and efficient way, by exploiting unconditional and conditional independences between these variables. Once constructed and parametrized, the BBN uses Bayesian inference to perform causal (e.g. forecast) and/or evidential reasoning (e.g. explanation) about query variables, given some evidence. In this work, we illustrate how BBNs can be used to model the influence of several variables on the generation of rain-triggered lahars

  14. Modeling volcanic ash dispersal

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2010-01-01

    The assessment of volcanic fallout hazard is an important scientific, economic, and political issue, especially in densely populated areas. From a scientific point of view, considerable progress has been made during the last two decades through the use of increasingly powerful computational models and capabilities. Nowadays, models are used to quantify hazard...

  15. Effect of imperfect knowledge of hazards on the reliability of concrete face rockfill dam and breakwater

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. De León–Escobedo

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available A formulation to treat aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, in a separate way, on infrastructures is proposed and applied to a dam and a breakwater in Mexico. The purpose of that is to de termine 2nd order bounds on the reliability estimation due to the in complete knowledge of some design parameters. These bounds provide a quantitative basis for risk management according to the risk–aversion of owners and operators of the infrastructure. Also, acceptable values of reliability, are assessed in terms of consequences costs, and an initial cost curve for a breakwater is presented, as they may contribute to enhance the decision making process.The in corporation of epistemic uncertainty makes the reliability index to become a random variable and its his to gram is obtained to estimate percentiles as a means to measure a new additional room for decisions as compared to the traditionally used mean value of the reliability. Conservative decisions are illustrated for design and assessment of structures like a dam and a breakwater.The procedure involves a double loop of Monte Carlo simulation and represents a basis for the optimal design and risk management of dams and breakwaters.

  16. Hazard responses in the pre-industrial era: vulnerability and resilience of traditional societies to volcanic disasters and the implications for present-day disaster planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sangster, Heather

    2014-05-01

    A major research frontier in the study of natural hazard research involves unravelling the ways in which societies have reacted historically to disasters, and how such responses influence current policies of disaster reduction. For societies it is common to classify responses to natural hazards into: pre-industrial (folk); industrial; and post-industrial (comprehensive) responses. Pre-industrial societies are characterised by: a pre-dominantly rural location; an agricultural economic focus; artisan handicrafts rather than industrial production, parochialism, with people rarely travelling outside their local area and being little affected by external events and a feudal or semi-feudal social structure. In the past, hazard assessment focused on the physical processes that produced extreme and potentially damaging occurrences, however from the middle of the twenty-first century research into natural hazards has been cast within a framework defined by the polarities (or opposites) of vulnerability and resilience, subject to a blend of unique environmental, social, economic and cultural forces in hazardous areas, that either increase or decrease the impact of extreme events on a given society. In the past decade research of this type has been facilitated by a 'revolution' of source materials across a range of languages and in a variety of electronic formats (e.g. official archives; major contemporary and near-contemporary publications - often available as reprints; national and international newspapers of record; newsreel-films; and, photographs) and in the introduction of more reliable translation software (e.g. Systrans) that provides far more scope to the researcher in the study of natural hazards than was the case even a few years ago. Knowledge of hazard responses in the pre-industrial era is, not only important in its own right because it reveals indigenous strategies of coping, but also informs present-day disaster planners about how people have reacted to past

  17. Force-based and displacement-based reliability assessment approaches for highway bridges under multiple hazard actions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Huang

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The strength limit state of American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD Bridge Design Specifications is developed based on the failure probabilities of the combination of non-extreme loads. The proposed design limit state equation (DLSE has been fully calibrated for dead load and live load by using the reliability-based approach. On the other hand, most of DLSEs in other limit states, including the extreme events Ⅰ and Ⅱ, have not been developed and calibrated though taking certain probability-based concepts into account. This paper presents an assessment procedure of highway bridge reliabilities under the limit state of extreme event Ⅰ, i. e., the combination of dead load, live load and earthquake load. A force-based approach and a displacement-based approach are proposed and implemented on a set of nine simplified bridge models. Results show that the displacement-based approach comes up with more convergent and accurate reliabilities for selected models, which can be applied to other hazards.

  18. UPDATING AN EXPERT ELICITATION IN THE LIGHT OF NEW DATA: TEN YEARS OF PROBABILISTIC VOLCANIC HAZARD ANALYSIS FOR THE PROPOSED HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTE REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    F.V. Perry; A. Cogbill; R. Kelley

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) considers volcanism to be a potentially disruptive class of events that could affect the safety of the proposed high-level waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Volcanic hazard assessment in monogenetic volcanic fields depends on an adequate understanding of the temporal and spatial pattern of past eruptions. At Yucca Mountain, the hazard is due to an 11 Ma-history of basaltic volcanism with the latest eruptions occurring in three Pleistocene episodes to the west and south of Yucca Mountain. An expert elicitation convened in 1995-1996 by the DOE estimated the mean hazard of volcanic disruption of the repository as slightly greater than 10 -8 dike intersections per year with an uncertainty of about two orders of magnitude. Several boreholes in the region have encountered buried basalt in alluvial-filled basins; the youngest of these basalts is dated at 3.8 Ma. The possibility of additional buried basalt centers is indicated by a previous regional aeromagnetic survey conducted by the USGS that detected approximately 20 magnetic anomalies that could represent buried basalt volcanoes. Sensitivity studies indicate that the postulated presence of buried post-Miocene volcanoes to the east of Yucca Mountain could increase the hazard by an order of magnitude, and potentially significantly impact the results of the earlier expert elicitation. Our interpretation of the aeromagnetic data indicates that post-Miocene basalts are not present east of Yucca Mountain, but that magnetic anomalies instead represent faulted and buried Miocene basalt that correlates with nearby surface exposures. This interpretation is being tested by drilling. The possibility of uncharacterized buried volcanoes that could significantly change hazard estimates led DOE to support an update of the expert elicitation in 2004-2006. In support of the expert elicitation data needs, the DOE is sponsoring (1) a new higher-resolution, helicopter-borne aeromagnetic survey

  19. Introduction to Plate Boundaries and Natural Hazards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte, João C.; Schellart, Wouter P.

    2016-01-01

    A great variety of natural hazards occur on Earth, including earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, landslides, floods, fires, tornadoes, hurricanes, and avalanches. The most destructive of these hazards, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions, are mostly associated with tectonic plate

  20. Building a database on geological hazards in karst: some considerations about certainty, accuracy and reliability in the collection of data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parise, Mario; Vennari, Carmela

    2015-04-01

    . This factor does not have to be disregarded since, especially for the most ancient events, the data from the sources may be not of high precision for a correct positioning of the sinkhole site. As a consequence, each sinkhole in the database was ranked according to the degree of certainty in the location, subdivided into three different levels. Accuracy of the date of occurrence of the sinkhole was then evaluated, and the highest accuracy was assigned when all the information required (hour, day, month and year of occurrence) were available. The temporal reference is of crucial importance in the IRPI database, since the final goal of the research project is the definition of the sinkhole hazard in Italy. In order to reach such goal, given the definition of hazard, the time of occurrence, and the most likely return time of the events have to be assessed. Overall, the aforementioned elements of the database allow to make some considerations about the reliability of the information presented, their precision, and to give the correct weight to the outcomes deriving from its analyses. Such issues are discussed in the present contribution, as crucial elements that need to be clearly defined in a scientifically-sound database. The database has reached so far about 900 events (31% natural sinkholes and 48% anthropogenic sinkholes, whilst 21% of sinkholes have an uncertain origin). It is continuously updated, and represents a good starting point for analysis of the sinkhole hazard at the national scale, aimed at increasing the level of attention by scientists, practitioners and authorities on this subtle hazard.

  1. A combined field and numerical approach to understanding dilute pyroclastic density current dynamics and hazard potential: Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand, Brittany D.; Gravley, Darren M.; Clarke, Amanda B.; Lindsay, Jan M.; Bloomberg, Simon H.; Agustin-Flores, Javier; Németh, Károly

    2014-04-01

    The most dangerous and deadly hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF; Auckland, New Zealand) are those related to volcanic base surges - dilute, ground-hugging, particle laden currents with dynamic pressures capable of severe to complete structural damage. We use the well-exposed base surge deposits of the Maungataketake tuff ring (Manukau coast, Auckland), to reconstruct flow dynamics and destructive potential of base surges produced during the eruption. The initial base surge(s) snapped trees up to 0.5 m in diameter near their base as far as 0.7-0.9 km from the vent. Beyond this distance the trees were encapsulated and buried by the surge in growth position. Using the tree diameter and yield strength of the wood we calculate that dynamic pressures (Pdyn) in excess of 12-35 kPa are necessary to cause the observed damage. Next we develop a quantitative model for flow of and sedimentation from a radially-spreading, dilute pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) to determine the damage potential of the base surges produced during the early phases of the eruption and explore the implications of this potential on future eruptions in the region. We find that initial conditions with velocities on the order of 65 m s- 1, bulk density of 38 kg m- 3 and initial, near-vent current thicknesses of 60 m reproduce the field-based Pdyn estimates and runout distances. A sensitivity analysis revealed that lower initial bulk densities result in shorter run-out distances, more rapid deceleration of the current and lower dynamic pressures. Initial velocity does not have a strong influence on run-out distance, although higher initial velocity and slope slightly decrease runout distance due to higher rates of atmospheric entrainment. Using this model we determine that for base surges with runout distances of up to 4 km, complete destruction can be expected within 0.5 km from the vent, moderate destruction can be expected up to 2 km, but much

  2. Studies of crustal structure, seismic precursors to volcanic eruptions and earthquake hazard in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mavonga, T

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, civil wars in the eastern provinces of the Democratic Republic of Congo have caused massive social disruptions, which have been exacerbated by volcanic and earthquake disasters. Seismic data were gathered and analysed as part...

  3. The Online GVP/USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report: Providing Timely Information About Worldwide Volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayberry, G. C.; Guffanti, M. C.; Luhr, J. F.; Venzke, E. A.; Wunderman, R. L.

    2001-12-01

    The awesome power and intricate inner workings of volcanoes have made them a popular subject with scientists and the general public alike. About 1500 known volcanoes have been active on Earth during the Holocene, approximately 50 of which erupt per year. With so much activity occurring around the world, often in remote locations, it can be difficult to find up-to-date information about current volcanism from a reliable source. To satisfy the desire for timely volcano-related information the Smithsonian Institution and US Geological Survey combined their strengths to create the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) has developed a network of correspondents while reporting worldwide volcanism for over 30 years in their monthly Bulletin of the Global Volcanism Network. The US Geological Survey's Volcano Hazards Program studies and monitors volcanoes in the United States and responds (upon invitation) to selected volcanic crises in other countries. The Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is one of the most popular sites on both organization's websites. The core of the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report is the brief summaries of current volcanic activity around the world. In addition to discussing various types of volcanism, the summaries also describe precursory activity (e.g. volcanic seismicity, deformation, and gas emissions), secondary activity (e.g. debris flows, mass wasting, and rockfalls), volcanic ash hazards to aviation, and preventative measures. The summaries are supplemented by links to definitions of technical terms found in the USGS photoglossary of volcano terms, links to information sources, and background information about reported volcanoes. The site also includes maps that highlight the location of reported volcanoes, an archive of weekly reports sorted by volcano and date, and links to commonly used acronyms. Since the Weekly Volcanic Activity Report's inception in November 2000, activity has been reported at

  4. Hazard assessment of exhaust emissions - The next generation of fast and reliable tools for in vitro screening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothen-Rutishauser, B.

    2017-12-01

    Hazard assessment of exhaust emissions - The next generation of fast and reliable tools for in vitro screening Barbara Rothen-Rutishauser Adolphe Merkle Institute, University of Fribourg, Switzerland; barbara.rothen@unifr.ch Pollution by vehicles is a major problem for the environment due to the various components in the exhaust gasses that are emitted into the atmosphere. A large number of epidemiological studies demonstrate the profound impact of vehicle emissions upon human health [1-3]. Such studies however, are unable to attribute a given subset of emissions to a certain adverse effect, which renders decision making difficult. Standardized protocols for exhaust toxicity assessment are lacking and it relies in many aspects on epidemiological and in vivo studies (animals), which are very time and cost-intensive and suffer from considerable ethical issues. An overview about the current state of research and clinical aspects in the field, as well as about the development of sophisticated in vitro approaches mimicking the inhalation of airborne particles / exhaust for the toxicological testing of engine emissions will be provided. Data will be presented that show that the combination of an air-liquid exposure system and 3D lung-cell culture model offers an adequate tool for fast and reliable investigations of complete exhaust toxicity as well as the effects of particulate fraction [4,5]. This approach yields important results for novel and improved emission technologies in the early stages of product development. [1] Donaldson et al. Part Fibre Toxicol 2005, 2: 10. [2] Ghio et al. J Toxicol Environ Health B Crit Rev 2012, 15: 1-21. [3] Peters et al. Res Rep Health Eff Inst 2009, 5-77. [4] Bisig et al. Emiss Control Sci Technol 2015, 1: 237-246. [5] Steiner et al. Atmos Environ 2013, 81: 380-388.

  5. The Vitotox and ToxTracker assays: A two-test combination for quick and reliable assessment of genotoxic hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ates, Gamze; Favyts, Dorien; Hendriks, Giel; Derr, Remco; Mertens, Birgit; Verschaeve, Luc; Rogiers, Vera; Y Doktorova, Tatyana

    2016-11-01

    To ensure safety for humans, it is essential to characterize the genotoxic potential of new chemical entities, such as pharmaceutical and cosmetic substances. In a first tier, a battery of in vitro tests is recommended by international regulatory agencies. However, these tests suffer from inadequate specificity: compounds may be wrongly categorized as genotoxic, resulting in unnecessary, time-consuming, and expensive in vivo follow-up testing. In the last decade, novel assays (notably, reporter-based assays) have been developed in an attempt to overcome these drawbacks. Here, we have investigated the performance of two in vitro reporter-based assays, Vitotox and ToxTracker. A set of reference compounds was selected to span a variety of mechanisms of genotoxic action and applicability domains (e.g., pharmaceutical and cosmetic ingredients). Combining the performance of the two assays, we achieved 93% sensitivity and 79% specificity for prediction of gentoxicity for this set of compounds. Both assays permit quick high-throughput analysis of drug candidates, while requiring only small quantities of the test substances. Our study shows that these two assays, when combined, can be a reliable method for assessment of genotoxicity hazard. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Multiple edifice-collapse events in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt: The role of sloping substrate and implications for hazard assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrasco-Nunez, Gerardo; Diaz-Castellon, Rodolfo; Siebert, L.; Hubbard, B.; Sheridan, M.F.; Rodriguez, Sergio R.

    2006-01-01

    The Citlalte??petl-Cofre de Perote volcanic chain forms an important physiographic barrier that separates the Central Altiplano (2500??masl) from the Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP) (1300??masl). The abrupt eastward drop in relief between these provinces gives rise to unstable conditions and consequent gravitational collapse of large volcanic edifices built at the edge of the Altiplano. Eastward sloping substrate, caused by the irregular configuration of the basement rocks, is the dominant factor that controls the direction of collapsing sectors in all major volcanoes in the region to be preferentially towards the GCP. These collapses produced voluminous debris avalanches and lahars that inundated the well-developed drainages and clastic aprons that characterize the Coastal Plain. Large catastrophic collapses from Citlalte??petl, Las Cumbres, and Cofre de Perote volcanoes are well documented in the geologic record. Some of the avalanches and transformed flows have exceptionally long runouts and reach the Gulf of Mexico traveling more than 120??km from their source. So far, no direct evidence has been found for magmatic activity associated with the initiation of these catastrophic flank-collapses. Apparently, instability of the volcanic edifices has been strongly favored by very intense hydrothermal alteration, abrupt topographic change, and intense fracturing. In addition to the eastward slope of the substrate, the reactivation of pre-volcanic basement structures during the Late Tertiary, and the E-W to ENE-SSW oriented regional stress regimes may have played an important role in the preferential movement direction of the avalanches and flows. In addition to magmatic-hydrothermal processes, high amounts of rainfall in the area is another factor that enhances alteration and eventually weakens the rocks. It is very likely that seismic activity may be the principal triggering mechanism that caused the flank collapse of large volcanic edifices in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic

  7. Natural hazards science strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

    2012-01-01

    The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events.To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science.In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10-year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical statutory

  8. Respiratory hazard assessment of combined exposure to complete gasoline exhaust and respirable volcanic ash in a multicellular human lung model at the air-liquid interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J.; Bisig, Christoph; Damby, David; Comte, Pierre; Czerwinski, Jan; Petri-Fink, Alke; Clift, Martin J D; Drasler, Barbara; Rothen-Rutishauer, Barbara

    2018-01-01

    Communities resident in urban areas located near active volcanoes can experience volcanic ash exposures during, and following, an eruption, in addition to sustained exposures to high concentrations of anthropogenic air pollutants (e.g., vehicle exhaust emissions). Inhalation of anthropogenic pollution is known to cause the onset of, or exacerbate, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. It is further postulated similar exposure to volcanic ash can also affect such disease states. Understanding of the impact of combined exposure of volcanic ash and anthropogenic pollution to human health, however, remains limited.The aim of this study was to assess the biological impact of combined exposure to respirable volcanic ash (from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat and Chaitén volcano (ChV), Chile; representing different magmatic compositions and eruption styles) and freshly-generated complete exhaust from a gasoline vehicle. A multicellular human lung model (an epithelial cell-layer composed of A549 alveolar type II-like cells complemented with human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells cultured at the air-liquid interface) was exposed to diluted exhaust (1:10) continuously for 6 h, followed by immediate exposure to the ash as a dry powder (0.54 ± 0.19 μg/cm2 and 0.39 ± 0.09 μg/cm2 for SHV and ChV ash, respectively). After an 18 h incubation, cells were exposed again for 6 h to diluted exhaust, and a final 18 h incubation (at 37 °C and 5% CO2). Cell cultures were then assessed for cytotoxic, oxidative stress and (pro-)inflammatory responses.Results indicate that, at all tested (sub-lethal) concentrations, co-exposures with both ash samples induced no significant expression of genes associated with oxidative stress (HMOX1, NQO1) or production of (pro-)inflammatory markers (IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α) at the gene and protein levels. In summary, considering the employed experimental conditions, combined exposure of

  9. Respiratory hazard assessment of combined exposure to complete gasoline exhaust and respirable volcanic ash in a multicellular human lung model at the air-liquid interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomašek, Ines; Horwell, Claire J; Bisig, Christoph; Damby, David E; Comte, Pierre; Czerwinski, Jan; Petri-Fink, Alke; Clift, Martin J D; Drasler, Barbara; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara

    2018-07-01

    Communities resident in urban areas located near active volcanoes can experience volcanic ash exposures during, and following, an eruption, in addition to sustained exposures to high concentrations of anthropogenic air pollutants (e.g., vehicle exhaust emissions). Inhalation of anthropogenic pollution is known to cause the onset of, or exacerbate, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. It is further postulated similar exposure to volcanic ash can also affect such disease states. Understanding of the impact of combined exposure of volcanic ash and anthropogenic pollution to human health, however, remains limited. The aim of this study was to assess the biological impact of combined exposure to respirable volcanic ash (from Soufrière Hills volcano (SHV), Montserrat and Chaitén volcano (ChV), Chile; representing different magmatic compositions and eruption styles) and freshly-generated complete exhaust from a gasoline vehicle. A multicellular human lung model (an epithelial cell-layer composed of A549 alveolar type II-like cells complemented with human blood monocyte-derived macrophages and dendritic cells cultured at the air-liquid interface) was exposed to diluted exhaust (1:10) continuously for 6 h, followed by immediate exposure to the ash as a dry powder (0.54 ± 0.19 μg/cm 2 and 0.39 ± 0.09 μg/cm 2 for SHV and ChV ash, respectively). After an 18 h incubation, cells were exposed again for 6 h to diluted exhaust, and a final 18 h incubation (at 37 °C and 5% CO 2 ). Cell cultures were then assessed for cytotoxic, oxidative stress and (pro-)inflammatory responses. Results indicate that, at all tested (sub-lethal) concentrations, co-exposures with both ash samples induced no significant expression of genes associated with oxidative stress (HMOX1, NQO1) or production of (pro-)inflammatory markers (IL-1β, IL-8, TNF-α) at the gene and protein levels. In summary, considering the employed experimental conditions, combined exposure of

  10. Recent and Hazardous Volcanic Activity Along the NW Rift Zone of Piton De La Fournaise Volcano, La Réunion Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walther, G.; Frese, I.; Di Muro, A.; Kueppers, U.; Michon, L.; Metrich, N.

    2014-12-01

    Shield volcanoes are a common feature of basaltic volcanism. Their volcanic activity is often confined to a summit crater area and rift systems, both characterized by constructive (scoria and cinder cones; lava flows) and destructive (pit craters; caldera collapse) phenomena. Piton de la Fournaise (PdF) shield volcano (La Réunion Island, Indian Ocean) is an ideal place to study these differences in eruptive behaviour. Besides the frequent eruptions in the central Enclos Fouqué caldera, hundreds of eruptive vents opened along three main rift zones cutting the edifice during the last 50 kyrs. Two short rift zones are characterized by weak seismicity and lateral magma transport at shallow depth (above sea level). Here we focus on the third and largest rift zone (15km wide, 20 km long), which extends in a north-westerly direction between PdF and nearby Piton des Neiges volcanic complex. It is typified by deep seismicity (up to 30 km), emitting mostly primitive magmas, testifying of high fluid pressures (up to 5 kbar) and large-volume eruptions. We present new field data (including stratigraphic logs, a geological map of the area, C-14 dating and geochemical analyses of the eruption products) on one of the youngest (~6kyrs) and largest lava field (Trous Blancs eruption). It extends for 24km from a height of 1800 m asl, passing Le Tampon and Saint Pierre cities, until reaching the coast. The source area of this huge lava flow has been identified in an alignment of four previously unidentified pit craters. The eruption initiated with intense fountaining activity, producing a m-thick bed of loose black scoria, which becomes densely welded in its upper part; followed by an alternation of volume rich lava effusions and strombolian activity, resulting in the emplacement of meter-thick, massive units of olivine-basalt alternating with coarse scoria beds in the proximal area. Activity ended with the emplacement of a dm-thick bed of glassy, dense scoria and a stratified lithic

  11. Volcanic Ash Advisory Database, 1983-2003

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aviation and can also affect global climate patterns. To ensure safe navigation and monitor possible climatic impact, the...

  12. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  13. Optimal likelihood-based matching of volcanic sources and deposits in the Auckland Volcanic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawabata, Emily; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Wang, Ting

    2016-09-01

    In monogenetic volcanic fields, where each eruption forms a new volcano, focusing and migration of activity over time is a very real possibility. In order for hazard estimates to reflect future, rather than past, behavior, it is vital to assemble as much reliable age data as possible on past eruptions. Multiple swamp/lake records have been extracted from the Auckland Volcanic Field, underlying the 1.4 million-population city of Auckland. We examine here the problem of matching these dated deposits to the volcanoes that produced them. The simplest issue is separation in time, which is handled by simulating prior volcano age sequences from direct dates where known, thinned via ordering constraints between the volcanoes. The subproblem of varying deposition thicknesses (which may be zero) at five locations of known distance and azimuth is quantified using a statistical attenuation model for the volcanic ash thickness. These elements are combined with other constraints, from widespread fingerprinted ash layers that separate eruptions and time-censoring of the records, into a likelihood that was optimized via linear programming. A second linear program was used to optimize over the Monte-Carlo simulated set of prior age profiles to determine the best overall match and consequent volcano age assignments. Considering all 20 matches, and the multiple factors of age, direction, and size/distance simultaneously, results in some non-intuitive assignments which would not be produced by single factor analyses. Compared with earlier work, the results provide better age control on a number of smaller centers such as Little Rangitoto, Otuataua, Taylors Hill, Wiri Mountain, Green Hill, Otara Hill, Hampton Park and Mt Cambria. Spatio-temporal hazard estimates are updated on the basis of the new ordering, which suggest that the scale of the 'flare-up' around 30 ka, while still highly significant, was less than previously thought.

  14. Variational data assimilation of satellite observations to estimate volcanic ash emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, S.

    2017-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions release a large amount of volcanic ash, which can pose hazard to human and animal health, land transportation, and aviation safety. Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion (VATD) models are critical tools to provide advisory information and timely volcanic ash forecasts. Due to the

  15. Volcanic risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

    1995-01-01

    This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles' volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO 2 , H 2 O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs

  16. Frontiers of reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

    1998-01-01

    This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

  17. Volcanic features of Io

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carr, M.H.; Masursky, H.; Strom, R.G.; Terrile, R.J.

    1979-01-01

    The volcanic features of Io as detected during the Voyager mission are discussed. The volcanic activity is apparently higher than on any other body in the Solar System. Its volcanic landforms are compared with features on Earth to indicate the type of volcanism present on Io. (U.K.)

  18. Working towards a clearer and more helpful hazard map: investigating the influence of hazard map design on hazard communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, M. A.; Lindsay, J. M.; Gaillard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Globally, geological hazards are communicated using maps. In traditional hazard mapping practice, scientists analyse data about a hazard, and then display the results on a map for stakeholder and public use. However, this one-way, top-down approach to hazard communication is not necessarily effective or reliable. The messages which people take away will be dependent on the way in which they read, interpret, and understand the map, a facet of hazard communication which has been relatively unexplored. Decades of cartographic studies suggest that variables in the visual representation of data on maps, such as colour and symbology, can have a powerful effect on how people understand map content. In practice, however, there is little guidance or consistency in how hazard information is expressed and represented on maps. Accordingly, decisions are often made based on subjective preference, rather than research-backed principles. Here we present the results of a study in which we explore how hazard map design features can influence hazard map interpretation, and we propose a number of considerations for hazard map design. A series of hazard maps were generated, with each one showing the same probabilistic volcanic ashfall dataset, but using different verbal and visual variables (e.g., different colour schemes, data classifications, probabilistic formats). Following a short pilot study, these maps were used in an online survey of 110 stakeholders and scientists in New Zealand. Participants answered 30 open-ended and multiple choice questions about ashfall hazard based on the different maps. Results suggest that hazard map design can have a significant influence on the messages readers take away. For example, diverging colour schemes were associated with concepts of "risk" and decision-making more than sequential schemes, and participants made more precise estimates of hazard with isarithmic data classifications compared to binned or gradational shading. Based on such

  19. Volcanic Characteristics of Kueishantao in Northeast Taiwan and Their Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Lung Chiu

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Kueishantao (KST is a small offshore volcanic island located at the southernmost part of the Okinawa Trough. In this study, we conducted a detailed mapping incorporating the new high resolution LiDAR DTM laser scanning device to accurately construct a volcanic sequence. A new 1/5000 geological map was established. One primary volcanic cone, composed of layers of both lava flows and pyroclastic rocks constituted the major edifice of KST. The other minor volcanic cone, which consists of volcanic lapillis and blocks, is seated to the east of the main cone. The escarped and nearly straight coast in the southern part of the KST indicates that the volcano suffered a large post-volcanic edifice collapse erasing nearly one half of the volume of both volcanic cones. The increase in the abundance of the xenoliths of sedimentary rocks from the lower to the upper part of the volcanic sequence indicates that the formation of volcanic rocks of the KST involved an intensification of crustal contamination. The possibility of volcanic eruption can not be excluded in the future based on the present thermolu¬minescene age data of 7 ka. The associated eruptive ash fall and tsunami induced by the further collapse of the KST volcanic edifice might have great influence to the adjacent inland. Thus, long-term monitoring of volcanic activities around KST should be required for future hazard assessments.

  20. eVADE: Volcanic Ash Detection Raman LIDAR, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

  1. Volcanic Ash Detection Using Raman LIDAR: "VADER", Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Volcanic ash is a significant hazard to aircraft engine and electronics and has caused damage to unwary aircraft and disrupted air travel for thousands of travelers,...

  2. The VUELCO project consortium: new interdisciplinary research for improved risk mitigation and management during volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Volcanic unrest is a complex multi-hazard phenomenon of volcanism. The fact that unrest may, but not necessarily must lead to an imminent eruption contributes significant uncertainty to short-term hazard assessment of volcanic activity world-wide. Although it is reasonable to assume that all eruptions are associated with precursory activity of some sort, the knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting unrest signals and imminent eruption is, today, inadequate to deal effectively with crises of volcanic unrest. This results predominantly from the uncertainties in identifying the causative processes of unrest and as a consequence in forecasting its short-term evolution. However, key for effective risk mitigation and management during unrest is the early and reliable identification of changes in the subsurface dynamics of a volcano and their assessment as precursors to an impending eruption. The VUELCO project consortium has come together for a multi-disciplinary attack on the origin, nature and significance of volcanic unrest from the scientific contributions generated by collaboration of ten partners in Europe and Latin America. Dissecting the science of monitoring data from unrest periods at six type volcanoes in Italy, Spain, the West Indies, Mexico and Ecuador the consortium will create global strategies for 1) enhanced monitoring capacity and value, 2) mechanistic data interpretation and 3) identification of reliable eruption precursors; all from the geophysical, geochemical and geodetic fingerprints of unrest episodes. Experiments will establish a mechanistic understanding of subsurface processes capable of inducing unrest and aid in identifying key volcano monitoring parameters indicative of the nature of unrest processes. Numerical models will help establish a link between the processes and volcano monitoring data to inform on the causes of unrest and its short-term evolution. Using uncertainty assessment and new short

  3. Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindsay, J.; Leonard, G.S.

    2009-01-01

    In 2008 a multi-disciplinary research programme was launched, a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA). A major aspiration of DEVORA is development of a probabilistic hazard model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF). This will be achieved by investigating past eruption magnitude-frequency relationships and comparing these with similar data from analogous volcanic fields. A key data set underpinning this is an age database for the AVF. To this end a comprehensive dating campaign is planned as part of DEVORA. This report, Age of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis of all currently available age data for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from all previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be identified and addressed. (author). 60 refs., 7 figs., 31 tabs.

  4. Source mechanisms of volcanic tsunamis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Raphaël

    2015-10-28

    Volcanic tsunamis are generated by a variety of mechanisms, including volcano-tectonic earthquakes, slope instabilities, pyroclastic flows, underwater explosions, shock waves and caldera collapse. In this review, we focus on the lessons that can be learnt from past events and address the influence of parameters such as volume flux of mass flows, explosion energy or duration of caldera collapse on tsunami generation. The diversity of waves in terms of amplitude, period, form, dispersion, etc. poses difficulties for integration and harmonization of sources to be used for numerical models and probabilistic tsunami hazard maps. In many cases, monitoring and warning of volcanic tsunamis remain challenging (further technical and scientific developments being necessary) and must be coupled with policies of population preparedness. © 2015 The Author(s).

  5. Friction in volcanic environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendrick, Jackie E.; Lavallée, Yan

    2016-04-01

    to eruption behaviour and during ascent magma behaves in an increasingly rock-like manner as it degasses and crystallises. This character aids the development of shear zones in the conduit, producing fault surfaces that host gouge, cataclasite and pseudotachylyte and which control the last hundreds of meters of ascent by frictional slip. Recent work has shown that the occurrence of vesiculation of gas bubbles modifies the rheology of frictional melt and in extreme cases can trigger eruption style to switch from effusive to explosive activity. Hence it is of vital importance to recognise the frictional behaviour of volcanic rocks and magmas to understand the continuation of an eruption and associated hazards.

  6. Volcanic signals in oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Wittenberg, Andrew; Zeng, Fanrong

    2009-01-01

    Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean

  7. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, L.; Vogel, R. M.

    2015-12-01

    Studies from the natural hazards literature indicate that many natural processes, including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow and earthquakes, show evidence of nonstationary behavior such as trends in magnitudes through time. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on partial duration series (PDS) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e. that the probability of exceedance is constant through time. Given evidence of trends and the consequent expected growth in devastating impacts from natural hazards across the world, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (x) with its failure time series (t), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose PDS magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied Poisson-GP model. We derive a 2-parameter Generalized Pareto hazard model and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard event series x, with corresponding failure time series t, should have application to a wide class of natural hazards.

  8. Volcanic Alert System (VAS) developed during the (2011-2013) El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Ramon; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, Jose Manuel; Fernandez-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Garcia, Alicia

    2014-05-01

    In volcanic areas with long repose periods (as El Hierro), recently installed monitoring networks offer no instrumental record of past eruptions nor experience in handling a volcanic crisis. Both conditions, uncertainty and inexperience, contribute to make the communication of hazard more difficult. In fact, in the initial phases of the unrest at El Hierro, the perception of volcanic risk was somewhat distorted, as even relatively low volcanic hazards caused a high political impact. The need of a Volcanic Alert System became then evident. In general, the Volcanic Alert System is comprised of the monitoring network, the software tools for the analysis of the observables, the management of the Volcanic Activity Level, and the assessment of the threat. The Volcanic Alert System presented here places special emphasis on phenomena associated to moderate eruptions, as well as on volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides, which in some cases, as in El Hierro, may be more destructive than an eruption itself. As part of the Volcanic Alert System, we introduce here the Volcanic Activity Level which continuously applies a routine analysis of monitoring data (particularly seismic and deformation data) to detect data trend changes or monitoring network failures. The data trend changes are quantified according to the Failure Forecast Method (FFM). When data changes and/or malfunctions are detected, by an automated watchdog, warnings are automatically issued to the Monitoring Scientific Team. Changes in the data patterns are then translated by the Monitoring Scientific Team into a simple Volcanic Activity Level, that is easy to use and understand by the scientists and technicians in charge for the technical management of the unrest. The main feature of the Volcanic Activity Level is its objectivity, as it does not depend on expert opinions, which are left to the Scientific Committee, and its capabilities for early detection of precursors. As a consequence of the El Hierro

  9. Local to global: a collaborative approach to volcanic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, Eliza; Loughlin, Sue; Barsotti, Sara; Bonadonna, Costanza; Jenkins, Susanna

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic risk assessments at all scales present challenges related to the multitude of volcanic hazards, data gaps (hazards and vulnerability in particular), model representation and resources. Volcanic hazards include lahars, pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, tephra fall, ballistics, gas dispersal and also earthquakes, debris avalanches, tsunamis and more ... they can occur in different combinations and interact in different ways throughout the unrest, eruption and post-eruption period. Volcanoes and volcanic hazards also interact with other natural hazards (e.g. intense rainfall). Currently many hazards assessments consider the hazards from a single volcano but at national to regional scales the potential impacts of multiple volcanoes over time become important. The hazards that have the greatest tendency to affect large areas up to global scale are those transported in the atmosphere: volcanic particles and gases. Volcanic ash dispersal has the greatest potential to directly or indirectly affect the largest number of people worldwide, it is currently the only volcanic hazard for which a global assessment exists. The quantitative framework used (primarily at a regional scale) considers the hazard at a given location from any volcano. Flow hazards such as lahars and floods can have devastating impacts tens of kilometres from a source volcano and lahars can be devastating decades after an eruption has ended. Quantitative assessment of impacts is increasingly undertaken after eruptions to identify thresholds for damage and reduced functionality. Some hazards such as lava flows could be considered binary (totally destructive) but others (e.g. ash fall) have varying degrees of impact. Such assessments are needed to enhance available impact and vulnerability data. Currently, most studies focus on physical vulnerability but there is a growing emphasis on social vulnerability showing that it is highly variable and dynamic with pre-eruption socio

  10. Local and remote infrasound from explosive volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matoza, R. S.; Fee, D.; LE Pichon, A.

    2014-12-01

    Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject large volumes of ash into heavily travelled air corridors and thus pose a significant societal and economic hazard. In remote volcanic regions, satellite data are sometimes the only technology available to observe volcanic eruptions and constrain ash-release parameters for aviation safety. Infrasound (acoustic waves ~0.01-20 Hz) data fill this critical observational gap, providing ground-based data for remote volcanic eruptions. Explosive volcanic eruptions are among the most powerful sources of infrasound observed on earth, with recordings routinely made at ranges of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. Advances in infrasound technology and the efficient propagation of infrasound in the atmosphere therefore greatly enhance our ability to monitor volcanoes in remote regions such as the North Pacific Ocean. Infrasound data can be exploited to detect, locate, and provide detailed chronologies of the timing of explosive volcanic eruptions for use in ash transport and dispersal models. We highlight results from case studies of multiple eruptions recorded by the International Monitoring System and dedicated regional infrasound networks (2008 Kasatochi, Alaska, USA; 2008 Okmok, Alaska, USA; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kuriles, Russian Federation; 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Icleand) and show how infrasound is currently used in volcano monitoring. We also present progress towards characterizing and modeling the variability in source mechanisms of infrasound from explosive eruptions using dedicated local infrasound field deployments at volcanoes Karymsky, Russian Federation and Sakurajima, Japan.

  11. Volcanic stratigraphy: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martí, Joan; Groppelli, Gianluca; Brum da Silveira, Antonio

    2018-05-01

    Volcanic stratigraphy is a fundamental component of geological mapping in volcanic areas as it yields the basic criteria and essential data for identifying the spatial and temporal relationships between volcanic products and intra/inter-eruptive processes (earth-surface, tectonic and climatic), which in turn provides greater understanding of the geological evolution of a region. Establishing precise stratigraphic relationships in volcanic successions is not only essential for understanding the past behaviour of volcanoes and for predicting how they might behave in the future, but is also critical for establishing guidelines for exploring economic and energy resources associated with volcanic systems or for reconstructing the evolution of sedimentary basins in which volcanism has played a significant role. Like classical stratigraphy, volcanic stratigraphy should also be defined using a systematic methodology that can provide an organised and comprehensive description of the temporal and spatial evolution of volcanic terrain. This review explores different methods employed in studies of volcanic stratigraphy, examines four case studies that use differing stratigraphic approaches, and recommends methods for using systematic volcanic stratigraphy based on the application of the concepts of traditional stratigraphy but adapted to the needs of volcanological environment.

  12. Imaging volcanic CO2 and SO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrieli, A.; Wright, R.; Lucey, P. G.; Porter, J. N.

    2017-12-01

    Detecting and quantifying volcanic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions is of relevance to volcanologists. Changes in the amount and composition of gases that volcanoes emit are related to subsurface magma movements and the probability of eruptions. Volcanic gases and related acidic aerosols are also an important atmospheric pollution source that create environmental health hazards for people, animals, plants, and infrastructures. For these reasons, it is important to measure emissions from volcanic plumes during both day and night. We present image measurements of the volcanic plume at Kīlauea volcano, HI, and flux derivation, using a newly developed 8-14 um hyperspectral imaging spectrometer, the Thermal Hyperspectral Imager (THI). THI is capable of acquiring images of the scene it views from which spectra can be derived from each pixel. Each spectrum contains 50 wavelength samples between 8 and 14 um where CO2 and SO2 volcanic gases have diagnostic absorption/emission features respectively at 8.6 and 14 um. Plume radiance measurements were carried out both during the day and the night by using both the lava lake in the Halema'uma'u crater as a hot source and the sky as a cold background to detect respectively the spectral signatures of volcanic CO2 and SO2 gases. CO2 and SO2 path-concentrations were then obtained from the spectral radiance measurements using a new Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR)-based inversion algorithm, which was developed as part of this project. Volcanic emission fluxes were determined by combining the path measurements with wind observations, derived directly from the images. Several hours long time-series of volcanic emission fluxes will be presented and the SO2 conversion rates into aerosols will be discussed. The new imaging and inversion technique, discussed here, are novel allowing for continuous CO2 and SO2 plume mapping during both day and night.

  13. Improving communication during volcanic crises on small, vulnerable islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, W. J.; Solana, M. C.; Kilburn, C. R. J.; Sanderson, D.

    2009-05-01

    Increased exposure to volcanic hazard, particularly at vulnerable small islands, is driving an urgent and growing need for improved communication between monitoring scientists, emergency managers and the media, in advance of and during volcanic crises. Information gathering exercises undertaken on volcanic islands (Guadeloupe, St. Vincent and Montserrat) in the Lesser Antilles (eastern Caribbean), which have recently experienced - or are currently experiencing - volcanic action, have provided the basis for the compilation and publication of a handbook on Communication During Volcanic Emergencies, aimed at the principal stakeholder groups. The findings of the on-island surveys point up the critical importance of (1) bringing together monitoring scientists, emergency managers, and representatives of the media, well in advance of a volcanic crisis, and (2), ensuring that procedures and protocols are in place that will allow, as far as possible, effective and seamless cooperation and coordination when and if a crisis situation develops. Communication During Volcanic Emergencies is designed to promote and encourage both of these priorities through providing the first source-book addressing working relationships and inter-linkages between the stakeholder groups, and providing examples of good and bad practice. While targeting the volcanic islands of the eastern Caribbean, the source-book and its content are largely generic, and the advice and guidelines contained therein have equal validity in respect of improving communication before and during crises at any volcano, and have application to the communication issue in respect of a range of other geophysical hazards.

  14. National volcanic ash operations plan for aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,; ,

    2007-01-01

    The National Aviation Weather Program Strategic Plan (1997) and the National Aviation Weather Initiatives (1999) both identified volcanic ash as a high-priority informational need to aviation services. The risk to aviation from airborne volcanic ash is known and includes degraded engine performance (including flameout), loss of visibility, failure of critical navigational and operational instruments, and, in the worse case, loss of life. The immediate costs for aircraft encountering a dense plume are potentially major—damages up to $80 million have occurred to a single aircraft. Aircraft encountering less dense volcanic ash clouds can incur longer-term costs due to increased maintenance of engines and external surfaces. The overall goal, as stated in the Initiatives, is to eliminate encounters with ash that could degrade the in-flight safety of aircrews and passengers and cause damage to the aircraft. This goal can be accomplished by improving the ability to detect, track, and forecast hazardous ash clouds and to provide adequate warnings to the aviation community on the present and future location of the cloud. To reach this goal, the National Aviation Weather Program established three objectives: (1) prevention of accidental encounters with hazardous clouds; (2) reduction of air traffic delays, diversions, or evasive actions when hazardous clouds are present; and (3) the development of a single, worldwide standard for exchange of information on airborne hazardous materials. To that end, over the last several years, based on numerous documents (including an OFCMsponsored comprehensive study on aviation training and an update of Aviation Weather Programs/Projects), user forums, and two International Conferences on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety (1992 and 2004), the Working Group for Volcanic Ash (WG/VA), under the OFCM-sponsored Committee for Aviation Services and Research, developed the National Volcanic Ash Operations Plan for Aviation and Support of the

  15. Paleomagnetically inferred ages of a cluster of Holocene monogenetic eruptions in the Tacámbaro-Puruarán area (Michoacán, México): Implications for volcanic hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahgoub, Ahmed Nasser; Böhnel, Harald; Siebe, Claus; Salinas, Sergio; Guilbaud, Marie-Noëlle

    2017-11-01

    The paleomagnetic dating procedure was applied to a cluster of four partly overlapping monogenetic Holocene volcanoes and associated lava flows, namely La Tinaja, La Palma, Mesa La Muerta, and Malpaís de Cutzaróndiro, located in the Tacámbaro-Puruarán area, at the southeastern margin of the Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field. For this purpose, 21 sites distributed as far apart as possible from each other were sampled to obtain a well-averaged mean paleomagnetic direction for each single lava flow. For intensity determinations, double-heating Thellier experiments using the IZZI protocol were conducted on 55 selected samples. La Tinaja is the oldest of these flows and was dated by the 14C method at 5115 ± 130 years BP (cal 4184-3655 BCE). It is stratigraphically underneath the other three flows with Malpaís de Cutzaróndiro lava flow being the youngest. The paleomagnetic dating procedure was applied using the Matlab archaeo-dating tool in couple with the geomagnetic field model SHA.DIF.14k. Accordingly, for La Tinaja several possible age ranges were obtained, of which the range 3650-3480 BCE is closest to the 14C age. Paleomagnetic dating on La Palma produced a unique age range of 3220-2880 BCE. Two ages ranges of 2240-2070 BCE and 760-630 BCE were obtained for Mesa La Muerta and a well-constrained age of 420-320 BCE for Malpaís de Cutzaróndiro. Although systematic archaeological excavations have so far not been carried out in this area, it is possible that the younger eruptions were contemporary to local human occupation. Our paleomagnetic dates indicate that all four eruptions, although closely clustered in space, occurred separately in time with varying recurrence intervals ranging between 300 and 2300 years. This finding should be considered when constraining the nature of the magmatic plumbing system and developing a strategy aimed at reducing risk in the volcanically active Michoacán-Guanajuato volcanic field, where several young monogenetic volcano

  16. Hazard function theory for nonstationary natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-04-01

    Impact from natural hazards is a shared global problem that causes tremendous loss of life and property, economic cost, and damage to the environment. Increasingly, many natural processes show evidence of nonstationary behavior including wind speeds, landslides, wildfires, precipitation, streamflow, sea levels, and earthquakes. Traditional probabilistic analysis of natural hazards based on peaks over threshold (POT) generally assumes stationarity in the magnitudes and arrivals of events, i.e., that the probability of exceedance of some critical event is constant through time. Given increasing evidence of trends in natural hazards, new methods are needed to characterize their probabilistic behavior. The well-developed field of hazard function analysis (HFA) is ideally suited to this problem because its primary goal is to describe changes in the exceedance probability of an event over time. HFA is widely used in medicine, manufacturing, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. HFA provides a rich theory to relate the natural hazard event series (X) with its failure time series (T), enabling computation of corresponding average return periods, risk, and reliabilities associated with nonstationary event series. This work investigates the suitability of HFA to characterize nonstationary natural hazards whose POT magnitudes are assumed to follow the widely applied generalized Pareto model. We derive the hazard function for this case and demonstrate how metrics such as reliability and average return period are impacted by nonstationarity and discuss the implications for planning and design. Our theoretical analysis linking hazard random variable X with corresponding failure time series T should have application to a wide class of natural hazards with opportunities for future extensions.

  17. Volcanism on Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Ashley Gerard

    2014-03-01

    Preface; Introduction; Part I. Io, 1610 to 1995: Galileo to Galileo: 1. Io, 1610-1979; 2. Between Voyager and Galileo: 1979-95; 3. Galileo at Io; Part II. Planetary Volcanism: Evolution and Composition: 4. Io and Earth: formation, evolution, and interior structure; 5. Magmas and volatiles; Part III. Observing and Modeling Volcanic Activity: 6. Observations: thermal remote sensing of volcanic activity; 7. Models of effusive eruption processes; 8. Thermal evolution of volcanic eruptions; Part IV. Galileo at Io: the Volcanic Bestiary: 9. The view from Galileo; 10. The lava lake at Pele; 11. Pillan and Tvashtar: lava fountains and flows; 12. Prometheus and Amirani: Effusive activity and insulated flows; 13. Loki Patera: Io's powerhouse; 14. Other volcanoes and eruptions; Part V. Volcanism on Io: The Global View: 15. Geomorphology: paterae, shields, flows and mountains; 16. Volcanic plumes; 17. Hot spots; Part VI. Io after Galileo: 18. Volcanism on Io: a post-Galileo view; 19. The future of Io observations; Appendix 1; Appendix 2; References; Index.

  18. Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, Bruce M.; Perry, Frank V.; Valentine, Greg A.; Bowker, Lynn M.

    1998-01-01

    This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( than about 7 x 10 -8 events yr -1 . Simple probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Amargosa Valley. The sensitivity of the disruption probability to the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain sit

  19. Natural phenomena hazards, Hanford Site, Washington

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conrads, T.J.

    1998-01-01

    This document presents the natural phenomena hazard loads for use in implementing DOE Order 5480.28, Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation, and supports development of double-shell tank systems specifications at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The natural phenomena covered are seismic, flood, wind, volcanic ash, lightning, snow, temperature, solar radiation, suspended sediment, and relative humidity

  20. A multidisciplinary system for monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltelli, Mauro; Prestifilippo, Michele; Spata, Gaetano; Scollo, Simona; Andronico, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    One of the most active volcanoes in the world is Mt. Etna, in Italy, characterized by frequent explosive activity from the central craters and from fractures opened along the volcano flanks which, during the last years, caused several damages to aviation and forced the closure of the Catania International Airport. To give precise warning to the aviation authorities and air traffic controller and to assist the work of VAACs, a novel system for monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, was developed at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, sezione di Catania, the managing institution for the surveillance of Etna volcano. Monitoring is carried out using multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite able to track the volcanic plume with a high time resolution, visual and thermal cameras used to monitor the explosive activity, three continuous wave X-band disdrometers which detect ash dispersal and fallout, sounding balloons used to evaluate the atmospheric fields, and finally field data collected after the end of the eruptive event needed to extrapolate important features of explosive activity. Forecasting is carried out daily using automatic procedures which download weather forecast data obtained by meteorological mesoscale models from the Italian Air Force national Meteorological Office and from the hydrometeorological service of ARPA-SIM; run four different tephra dispersal models using input parameters obtained by the analysis of the deposits collected after few hours since the eruptive event similar to 22 July 1998, 21-24 July 2001 and 2002-03 Etna eruptions; plot hazard maps on ground and in air and finally publish them on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. The system has been already tested successfully during several explosive events occurring at Etna in 2006, 2007 and 2008. These events produced eruption

  1. Volcanic signals in oceans

    KAUST Repository

    Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2009-08-22

    Sulfate aerosols resulting from strong volcanic explosions last for 2–3 years in the lower stratosphere. Therefore it was traditionally believed that volcanic impacts produce mainly short-term, transient climate perturbations. However, the ocean integrates volcanic radiative cooling and responds over a wide range of time scales. The associated processes, especially ocean heat uptake, play a key role in ongoing climate change. However, they are not well constrained by observations, and attempts to simulate them in current climate models used for climate predictions yield a range of uncertainty. Volcanic impacts on the ocean provide an independent means of assessing these processes. This study focuses on quantification of the seasonal to multidecadal time scale response of the ocean to explosive volcanism. It employs the coupled climate model CM2.1, developed recently at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\\'s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, to simulate the response to the 1991 Pinatubo and the 1815 Tambora eruptions, which were the largest in the 20th and 19th centuries, respectively. The simulated climate perturbations compare well with available observations for the Pinatubo period. The stronger Tambora forcing produces responses with higher signal-to-noise ratio. Volcanic cooling tends to strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Sea ice extent appears to be sensitive to volcanic forcing, especially during the warm season. Because of the extremely long relaxation time of ocean subsurface temperature and sea level, the perturbations caused by the Tambora eruption could have lasted well into the 20th century.

  2. Software safety hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, J.D.

    1996-02-01

    Techniques for analyzing the safety and reliability of analog-based electronic protection systems that serve to mitigate hazards in process control systems have been developed over many years, and are reasonably well understood. An example is the protection system in a nuclear power plant. The extension of these techniques to systems which include digital computers is not well developed, and there is little consensus among software engineering experts and safety experts on how to analyze such systems. One possible technique is to extend hazard analysis to include digital computer-based systems. Software is frequently overlooked during system hazard analyses, but this is unacceptable when the software is in control of a potentially hazardous operation. In such cases, hazard analysis should be extended to fully cover the software. A method for performing software hazard analysis is proposed in this paper

  3. Volcanic Rocks and Features

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Volcanoes have contributed significantly to the formation of the surface of our planet. Volcanism produced the crust we live on and most of the air we breathe. The...

  4. Martian volcanism: A review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carr, M.H.

    1987-01-01

    Martian volcanism is reviewed. It is emphasized that lava plains constitute the major type of effusive flow, and can be differentiated by morphologic characteristics. Shield volcanoes, domes, and patera constitute the major constructional landforms, and recent work has suggested that explosive activity and resulting pyroclastic deposits may have been involved with formation of some of the small shields. Analysis of morphology, presumed composition, and spectroscopic data all indicate that Martian volcanism was dominantly basaltic in composition

  5. Communicating Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts: Decision-Making and Information Preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Kelsey; Black, Alison; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; McCloy, Rachel; Lickiss, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    The Robust Assessment and Communication of Environmental Risk (RACER) consortium, an interdisciplinary research team focusing on communication of uncertainty with respect to natural hazards, hosted a Volcanic Ash Workshop to discuss issues related to volcanic ash forecasting, especially forecast uncertainty. Part of the workshop was a decision game in which participants including forecasters, academics, and members of the Aviation Industry were given hypothetical volcanic ash concentration forecasts and asked whether they would approve a given flight path. The uncertainty information was presented in different formats including hazard maps, line graphs, and percent probabilities. Results from the decision game will be presented with a focus on information preferences, understanding of the forecasts, and whether different formats of the same volcanic ash forecast resulted in different flight decisions. Implications of this research will help the design and presentation of volcanic ash plume decision tools and can also help advise design of other natural hazard information.

  6. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

    1993-08-01

    This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

  7. Volcanic ash in ancient Maya ceramics of the limestone lowlands: implications for prehistoric volcanic activity in the Guatemala highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Anabel; Rose, William I.

    1995-07-01

    In the spirit of collaborative research, Glicken and Ford embarked on the problem of identifying the source of volcanic ash used as temper in prehistoric Maya ceramics. Verification of the presence of glass shards and associated volcanic mineralogy in thin sections of Maya ceramics was straightforward and pointed to the Guatemala Highland volcanic chain. Considering seasonal wind rose patterns, target volcanoes include those from the area west of and including Guatemala City. Joint field research conducted in 1983 by Glicken and Ford in the limestone lowlands of Belize and neighboring Guatemala, 300 km north of the volcanic zone and 150 km from the nearest identified ash deposits, was unsuccessful in discovering local volcanic ash deposits. The abundance of the ash in common Maya ceramic vessels coupled with the difficulties of long-distance procurement without draft animals lead Glicken to suggest that ashfall into the lowlands would most parsimoniously explain prehistoric procurement; it literally dropped into their hands. A major archaeological problem with this explanation is that the use of volcanic ash occurring over several centuries of the Late Classic Period (ca. 600-900 AD). To accept the ashfall hypothesis for ancient Maya volcanic ash procurement, one would have to demonstrate a long span of consistent volcanic activity in the Guatemala Highlands for the last half of the first millennium AD. Should this be documented through careful petrographic, microprobe and tephrachronological studies, a number of related archaeological phenomena would be explained. In addition, the proposed model of volcanic activity has implications for understanding volcanism and potential volcanic hazards in Central America over a significantly longer time span than the historic period. These avenues are explored and a call for further collaborative research of this interdisciplinary problem is extended in this paper.

  8. Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Scollo

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we describe the results of a project ongoing at the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV. The objective is to develop and implement a system for monitoring and forecasting volcanic plumes of Etna. Monitoring is based at present by multispectral infrared measurements from the Spin Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation geosynchronous satellite, visual and thermal cameras, and three radar disdrometers able to detect ash dispersal and fallout. Forecasting is performed by using automatic procedures for: i downloading weather forecast data from meteorological mesoscale models; ii running models of tephra dispersal, iii plotting hazard maps of volcanic ash dispersal and deposition for certain scenarios and, iv publishing the results on a web-site dedicated to the Italian Civil Protection. Simulations are based on eruptive scenarios obtained by analysing field data collected after the end of recent Etna eruptions. Forecasting is, hence, supported by plume observations carried out by the monitoring system. The system was tested on some explosive events occurred during 2006 and 2007 successfully. The potentiality use of monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, in a way to prevent threats to aviation from volcanic ash, is finally discussed.

  9. Estimation of volcanic ash emissions using trajectory-based 4D-Var data assimilation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, S.; Lin, X.; Heemink, A.W.; Fu, G.; Segers, A.J.

    2015-01-01

    Volcanic ash forecasting is a crucial tool in hazard assessment and operational volcano monitoring. Emission parameters such as plume height, total emission mass, and vertical distribution of the emission plume rate are essential and important in the implementation of volcanic ash models. Therefore,

  10. Volcanic alert system (VAS) developed during the 2011-2014 El Hierro (Canary Islands) volcanic process

    Science.gov (United States)

    García, Alicia; Berrocoso, Manuel; Marrero, José M.; Fernández-Ros, Alberto; Prates, Gonçalo; De la Cruz-Reyna, Servando; Ortiz, Ramón

    2014-06-01

    The 2011 volcanic unrest at El Hierro Island illustrated the need for a Volcanic Alert System (VAS) specifically designed for the management of volcanic crises developing after long repose periods. The VAS comprises the monitoring network, the software tools for analysis of the monitoring parameters, the Volcanic Activity Level (VAL) management, and the assessment of hazard. The VAS presented here focuses on phenomena related to moderate eruptions, and on potentially destructive volcano-tectonic earthquakes and landslides. We introduce a set of new data analysis tools, aimed to detect data trend changes, as well as spurious signals related to instrumental failure. When data-trend changes and/or malfunctions are detected, a watchdog is triggered, issuing a watch-out warning (WOW) to the Monitoring Scientific Team (MST). The changes in data patterns are then translated by the MST into a VAL that is easy to use and understand by scientists, technicians, and decision-makers. Although the VAS was designed specifically for the unrest episodes at El Hierro, the methodologies may prove useful at other volcanic systems.

  11. Natural Hazards, Second Edition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouhban, Badaoui

    Natural disaster loss is on the rise, and the vulnerability of the human and physical environment to the violent forces of nature is increasing. In many parts of the world, disasters caused by natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, drought, wildfires, intense windstorms, tsunami, and volcanic eruptions have caused the loss of human lives, injury, homelessness, and the destruction of economic and social infrastructure. Over the last few years, there has been an increase in the occurrence, severity, and intensity of disasters, culminating with the devastating tsunami of 26 December 2004 in South East Asia.Natural hazards are often unexpected or uncontrollable natural events of varying magnitude. Understanding their mechanisms and assessing their distribution in time and space are necessary for refining risk mitigation measures. This second edition of Natural Hazards, (following a first edition published in 1991 by Cambridge University Press), written by Edward Bryant, associate dean of science at Wollongong University, Australia, grapples with this crucial issue, aspects of hazard prediction, and other issues. The book presents a comprehensive analysis of different categories of hazards of climatic and geological origin.

  12. Volcanic Infrasound - A technical topic communicated in an entertaining way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerlow, Isaac

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic Infrasound is a 9-minute film about using infrasound waves to detect and measure volcanic eruptions as they unfold. The film was made by an interdisciplinary team of filmmakers and scientists for a general audience. The movie explains the basic facts of using infrasound to detect volcanic activity, and it also shows volcano researchers as they install infrasound sensors in a natural reserve in the middle of the city. This is the first in a series of films that seek to address natural hazards of relevance to Singapore, a country shielded from violent hazards. This presentation reviews the science communication techniques and assumptions used to develop and produce this entertaining scientific documentary short. Trailer: https://vimeo.com/192206460

  13. Hazardous Waste

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... chemicals can still harm human health and the environment. When you throw these substances away, they become hazardous waste. Some hazardous wastes come from products in our homes. Our garbage can include such hazardous wastes as old batteries, bug spray cans and paint thinner. U.S. residents ...

  14. Protocols for geologic hazards response by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2010-01-01

    The Yellowstone Plateau hosts an active volcanic system, with subterranean magma (molten rock), boiling, pressurized waters, and a variety of active faults with significant earthquake hazards. Within the next few decades, light-to-moderate earthquakes and steam explosions are certain to occur. Volcanic eruptions are less likely, but are ultimately inevitable in this active volcanic region. This document summarizes protocols, policies, and tools to be used by the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO) during earthquakes, hydrothermal explosions, or any geologic activity that could lead to a volcanic eruption.

  15. Lahar—River of volcanic mud and debris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Major, Jon J.; Pierson, Thomas C.; Vallance, James W.

    2018-05-09

    Lahar, an Indonesian word for volcanic mudflow, is a mixture of water, mud, and volcanic rock flowing swiftly along a channel draining a volcano. Lahars can form during or after eruptions, or even during periods of inactivity. They are among the greatest threats volcanoes pose to people and property. Lahars can occur with little to no warning, and may travel great distances at high speeds, destroying or burying everything in their paths.Lahars form in many ways. They commonly occur when eruptions melt snow and ice on snow-clad volcanoes; when rains fall on steep slopes covered with fresh volcanic ash; when crater lakes, volcano glaciers or lakes dammed by volcanic debris suddenly release water; and when volcanic landslides evolve into flowing debris. Lahars are especially likely to occur at erupting or recently active volcanoes.Because lahars are so hazardous, U.S. Geological Survey scientists pay them close attention. They study lahar deposits and limits of inundation, model flow behavior, develop lahar-hazard maps, and work with community leaders and governmental authorities to help them understand and minimize the risks of devastating lahars.

  16. Considerations on comprehensive risk assessment and mitigation planning of volcanic ash-fall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toshida, Kiyoshi

    2010-01-01

    Volcanic ash-fall is inevitable hazard throughout Japan, and causes wide range of effects due to its physical and chemical properties. Nuclear power plants in Japan face the necessity to assess the risk from volcanic ash-fall. Risk assessment of the volcanic ash-fall should include engineering solution and mitigation planning as well as the ash-fall hazard. This report points out the characteristics for reducing the various effects of volcanic ash-fall as follows. Large-scale eruptions produce prominent volcanic ash-falls that can approach power plants at a great distance. Aftermath hazards of ash-fall events, such as remobilization of fine ash particles and generation of lahars, require further assessments. The kind and extent of damages becomes greater whenever ash is wet. Wet ash requires separate assessments in contrast to dry ash. The mitigation and recovery measures at power plants involve quick cleanup operations of volcanic ash. Those operations should be prepared through comprehensive risk assessment, and by cooperation with authorities, during pre-eruption repose period. The comprehensive assessment for volcanic ash-fall hazards, however, has yet to be conducted. Development of risk communication method may result in increased implementation mitigation planning. Numerical analysis of the ash-fall hazards provides quantitative data on particle motions that can be used in the risk assessment. In order to implement the quantitative assessment method, the verification on the effect of ambient air condition to the altitude of volcanic ash cloud is necessary. We need to develop a three-dimensional model of volcanic ash cloud, and calculate motions of ash clouds under multiple conditions of ambient air. (author)

  17. Volcanism Studies: Final Report for the Yucca Mountain Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruce M. Crowe; Frank V. Perry; Greg A. Valentine; Lynn M. Bowker

    1998-12-01

    This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. An assessment of the risk of future volcanic activity is one of many site characterization studies that must be completed to evaluate the Yucca Mountain site for potential long-term storage of high-level radioactive waste. The presence of several basaltic volcanic centers in the Yucca Mountain region of Pliocene and Quaternary age indicates that there is a finite risk of a future volcanic event occurring during the 10,000-year isolation period of a potential repository. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The Crater Flat volcanic zone is

  18. Intraplate volcanism influenced by distal subduction tectonics at Jeju Island, Republic of Korea

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brenna, M.; Cronin, S.J.; Kereszturi, G.; Sohn, Y.K.; Smith, I.E.M.; Wijbrans, J.R.

    2015-01-01

    The drivers behind the inception of, and the variable, pulsatory eruption rates at distributed intraplate volcanic fields are not well understood. Such broad areas of monogenetic volcanism cover vast areas of the world and are often heavily populated. Reliable models to unravel their behaviour

  19. The California Hazards Institute

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Kellogg, L. H.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2006-12-01

    California's abundant resources are linked with its natural hazards. Earthquakes, landslides, wildfires, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, severe storms, fires, and droughts afflict the state regularly. These events have the potential to become great disasters, like the San Francisco earthquake and fire of 1906, that overwhelm the capacity of society to respond. At such times, the fabric of civic life is frayed, political leadership is tested, economic losses can dwarf available resources, and full recovery can take decades. A patchwork of Federal, state and local programs are in place to address individual hazards, but California lacks effective coordination to forecast, prevent, prepare for, mitigate, respond to, and recover from, the harmful effects of natural disasters. Moreover, we do not know enough about the frequency, size, time, or locations where they may strike, nor about how the natural environment and man-made structures would respond. As California's population grows and becomes more interdependent, even moderate events have the potential to trigger catastrophes. Natural hazards need not become natural disasters if they are addressed proactively and effectively, rather than reactively. The University of California, with 10 campuses distributed across the state, has world-class faculty and students engaged in research and education in all fields of direct relevance to hazards. For that reason, the UC can become a world leader in anticipating and managing natural hazards in order to prevent loss of life and property and degradation of environmental quality. The University of California, Office of the President, has therefore established a new system-wide Multicampus Research Project, the California Hazards Institute (CHI), as a mechanism to research innovative, effective solutions for California. The CHI will build on the rich intellectual capital and expertise of the Golden State to provide the best available science, knowledge and tools for

  20. Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong

    1992-07-01

    This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

  1. Backprojection of volcanic tremor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haney, Matthew M.

    2014-01-01

    Backprojection has become a powerful tool for imaging the rupture process of global earthquakes. We demonstrate the ability of backprojection to illuminate and track volcanic sources as well. We apply the method to the seismic network from Okmok Volcano, Alaska, at the time of an escalation in tremor during the 2008 eruption. Although we are able to focus the wavefield close to the location of the active cone, the network array response lacks sufficient resolution to reveal kilometer-scale changes in tremor location. By deconvolving the response in successive backprojection images, we enhance resolution and find that the tremor source moved toward an intracaldera lake prior to its escalation. The increased tremor therefore resulted from magma-water interaction, in agreement with the overall phreatomagmatic character of the eruption. Imaging of eruption tremor shows that time reversal methods, such as backprojection, can provide new insights into the temporal evolution of volcanic sources.

  2. Volcanic eruptions on Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strom, R. G.; Schneider, N. M.; Terrile, R. J.; Hansen, C.; Cook, A. F.

    1981-01-01

    Nine eruption plumes which were observed during the Voyager 1 encounter with Io are discussed. During the Voyager 2 encounter, four months later, eight of the eruptions were still active although the largest became inactive sometime between the two encounters. Plumes range in height from 60 to over 300 km with corresponding ejection velocities of 0.5 to 1.0 km/s and plume sources are located on several plains and consist of fissures or calderas. The shape and brightness distribution together with the pattern of the surface deposition on a plume 3 is simulated by a ballistic model with a constant ejection velocity of 0.5 km/s and ejection angles which vary from 0-55 deg. The distribution of active and recent eruptions is concentrated in the equatorial regions and indicates that volcanic activity is more frequent and intense in the equatorial regions than in the polar regions. Due to the geologic setting of certain plume sources and large reservoirs of volatiles required for the active eruptions, it is concluded that sulfur volcanism rather than silicate volcanism is the most likely driving mechanism for the eruption plumes.

  3. Using Bayesian Belief Networks and event trees for volcanic hazard assessment and decision support : reconstruction of past eruptions of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe and retrospective analysis of 1975-77 unrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Hincks, Thea; Sparks, Steve; Aspinall, Willy; Legendre, Yoann; Boudon, Georges

    2013-04-01

    Since 1992, mild but persistent seismic and fumarolic unrest at La Soufrière de Guadeloupe volcano has prompted renewed concern about hazards and risks, crisis response planning, and has rejuvenated interest in geological studies. Scientists monitoring active volcanoes frequently have to provide science-based decision support to civil authorities during such periods of unrest. In these circumstances, the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) offers a formalized evidence analysis tool for making inferences about the state of the volcano from different strands of data, allowing associated uncertainties to be treated in a rational and auditable manner, to the extent warranted by the strength of the evidence. To illustrate the principles of the BBN approach, a retrospective analysis is undertaken of the 1975-77 crisis, providing an inferential assessment of the evolving state of the magmatic system and the probability of subsequent eruption. Conditional dependencies and parameters in the BBN are characterized quantitatively by structured expert elicitation. Revisiting data available in 1976 suggests the probability of magmatic intrusion would have been evaluated high at the time, according with subsequent thinking about the volcanological nature of the episode. The corresponding probability of a magmatic eruption therefore would have been elevated in July and August 1976; however, collective uncertainty about the future course of the crisis was great at the time, even if some individual opinions were certain. From this BBN analysis, while the more likely appraised outcome - based on observational trends at 31 August 1976 - might have been 'no eruption' (mean probability 0.5; 5-95 percentile range 0.8), an imminent magmatic eruption (or blast) could have had a probability of about 0.4, almost as substantial. Thus, there was no real scientific basis to assert one scenario was more likely than the other. This retrospective evaluation adds objective probabilistic expression to

  4. Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Thomas M.; Stewart, Carol; Sword-Daniels, Victoria; Leonard, Graham S.; Johnston, David M.; Cole, Jim W.; Wardman, Johnny; Wilson, Grant; Barnard, Scott T.

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although phenomena such as pyroclastic flows and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic ash is by far the most widely distributed eruption product. Although ash falls rarely endanger human life directly, threats to public health and disruption to critical infrastructure services, aviation and primary production can lead to significant societal impacts. Even relatively small eruptions can cause widespread disruption, damage and economic loss. Volcanic eruptions are, in general, infrequent and somewhat exotic occurrences, and consequently in many parts of the world, the management of critical infrastructure during volcanic crises can be improved with greater knowledge of the likely impacts. This article presents an overview of volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, other than aviation and fuel supply, illustrated by findings from impact assessment reconnaissance trips carried out to a wide range of locations worldwide by our international research group and local collaborators. ‘Critical infrastructure’ includes those assets, frequently taken for granted, which are essential for the functioning of a society and economy. Electricity networks are very vulnerable to disruption from volcanic ash falls. This is particularly the case when fine ash is erupted because it has a greater tendency to adhere to line and substation insulators, where it can cause flashover (unintended electrical discharge) which can in turn cause widespread and disruptive outages. Weather conditions are a major determinant of flashover risk. Dry ash is not conductive, and heavy rain will wash ash from insulators, but light rain/mist will mobilise readily-soluble salts on the surface of the ash grains and lower the ash layer’s resistivity. Wet ash is also heavier than dry ash, increasing the risk of line breakage or tower/pole collapse. Particular issues for water

  5. Using Satellite Observations to Evaluate the AeroCOM Volcanic Emissions Inventory and the Dispersal of Volcanic SO2 Clouds in MERRA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Eric J.; Krotkov, Nickolay; da Silva, Arlindo; Colarco, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of volcanic emissions in climate models requires information that describes the eruption of the emissions into the atmosphere. While the total amount of gases and aerosols released from a volcanic eruption can be readily estimated from satellite observations, information about the source parameters, like injection altitude, eruption time and duration, is often not directly known. The AeroCOM volcanic emissions inventory provides estimates of eruption source parameters and has been used to initialize volcanic emissions in reanalysis projects, like MERRA. The AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory provides an eruptions daily SO2 flux and plume top altitude, yet an eruption can be very short lived, lasting only a few hours, and emit clouds at multiple altitudes. Case studies comparing the satellite observed dispersal of volcanic SO2 clouds to simulations in MERRA have shown mixed results. Some cases show good agreement with observations Okmok (2008), while for other eruptions the observed initial SO2 mass is half of that in the simulations, Sierra Negra (2005). In other cases, the initial SO2 amount agrees with the observations but shows very different dispersal rates, Soufriere Hills (2006). In the aviation hazards community, deriving accurate source terms is crucial for monitoring and short-term forecasting (24-h) of volcanic clouds. Back trajectory methods have been developed which use satellite observations and transport models to estimate the injection altitude, eruption time, and eruption duration of observed volcanic clouds. These methods can provide eruption timing estimates on a 2-hour temporal resolution and estimate the altitude and depth of a volcanic cloud. To better understand the differences between MERRA simulations and volcanic SO2 observations, back trajectory methods are used to estimate the source term parameters for a few volcanic eruptions and compared to their corresponding entry in the AeroCOM volcanic emission inventory. The nature of

  6. Modeling lahar behavior and hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manville, Vernon; Major, Jon J.; Fagents, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Lahars are highly mobile mixtures of water and sediment of volcanic origin that are capable of traveling tens to > 100 km at speeds exceeding tens of km hr-1. Such flows are among the most serious ground-based hazards at many volcanoes because of their sudden onset, rapid advance rates, long runout distances, high energy, ability to transport large volumes of material, and tendency to flow along existing river channels where populations and infrastructure are commonly concentrated. They can grow in volume and peak discharge through erosion and incorporation of external sediment and/or water, inundate broad areas, and leave deposits many meters thick. Furthermore, lahars can recur for many years to decades after an initial volcanic eruption, as fresh pyroclastic material is eroded and redeposited during rainfall events, resulting in a spatially and temporally evolving hazard. Improving understanding of the behavior of these complex, gravitationally driven, multi-phase flows is key to mitigating the threat to communities at lahar-prone volcanoes. However, their complexity and evolving nature pose significant challenges to developing the models of flow behavior required for delineating their hazards and hazard zones.

  7. Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

  8. Inside the volcanic boiler room: knowledge exchange among stakeholders of volcanic unrest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottsmann, Joachim; Christie, Ryerson; Bretton, Richard

    2014-05-01

    The knowledge of the causative links between subsurface processes, resulting monitoring signals and imminent eruption is incomplete. As a consequence, hazard assessment and risk mitigation strategies are subject to uncertainty. Discussion of unrest and pre-eruptive scenarios with uncertain outcomes are central during the discourse between a variety of stakeholders in volcanic unrest including scientists, emergency managers, policy makers and the public. Drawing from research within the EC FP7 VUELCO project, we argue that knowledge exchange amongst the different stakeholders of volcanic unrest evolves along three dimensions: 1) the identification of knowledge holders (including local communities) and their needs and expectations, 2) vehicles of communication and 3) trust. In preparing products that feed into risk assessment and management, scientists need to ensure that their deliverables are timely, accurate, clear, understandable and cater to the expectations of emergency managers. The means and content of communication amongst stakeholders need to be defined and adhered to. Finally, efficient and effective interaction between stakeholders is ideally based on mutual trust between those that generate knowledge and those that receive knowledge. For scientists, this entails contextualising volcanic hazard and risk in the framework of environmental and social values. Periods of volcanic quiescence are ideally suited to test established protocols of engagement between stakeholders in preparation for crises situations. The different roles of stakeholders and associated rules of engagement can be scrutinised and reviewed in antecessum rather than ad-hoc during a crisis situation to avoid issues related to distrust, loss of credibility and overall poor risk management. We will discuss these themes drawing from exploitation of research results from Mexico and Ecuador.

  9. Columbus safety and reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longhurst, F.; Wessels, H.

    1988-10-01

    Analyses carried out to ensure Columbus reliability, availability, and maintainability, and operational and design safety are summarized. Failure modes/effects/criticality is the main qualitative tool used. The main aspects studied are fault tolerance, hazard consequence control, risk minimization, human error effects, restorability, and safe-life design.

  10. Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregg, C. E.; Reeves, A.; Lindell, M. K.; Prater, C.; Joyner, T. A.; Eggert, S.

    2016-12-01

    The eruption of Kīlauea volcano since 1983 has produced a series of crises, the latest one occurring in 2014 and 2015 when a new vent sent lava flows northeastward toward developed areas in the lower Puna District of Kīlauea. The June 27 lava flow took about 2 months to advance to the edge of developed areas in Puna, prompting widespread reaction. Volcanic eruptions often have large economic consequences out of proportion with their magnitudes, and uncertainties about the physical and organizational communication of risk information amplify these losses. This study aims to improve tools to communicate uncertainty of volcanic activity and organizational and individual response, offering clearer and more reliable information to guide civic leaders in issuing appropriate warnings. One significant impediment to risk communication is limited knowledge about the most effective ways to communicate scientific uncertainty through verbal, numeric and graphic methods. The public's demand for near-real time information updates during the June 27 lava crisis, including both written messages and graphics, required some agencies to provide information at a faster rate than in any previous eruption. In order to understand how these and other stakeholders involved with the crisis can better plan for and manage future crises, including implementing evacuation decisions, we conducted a series of interviews and a mental model exercise with stakeholders. We explored their knowledge of local risk communication messages and hazard mitigation efforts and their experiences during the June 27 lava flow crisis. Stakeholders represented county, state and federal agencies and included elected officials, emergency managers, scientists, and other professionals involved with the crisis (traffic engineers, land use planners, police officers, fire fighters). We also assessed factors that influence individual and household preparedness to implement officials' protective action recommendations

  11. Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States); Wells, S. [Univ. of California, Riverside, CA (United States); Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K. [Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV (United States); Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

    1995-02-01

    Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report.

  12. Status of volcanism studies for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.; Perry, F.; Murrell, M.; Poths, J.; Valentine, G.A.; Wells, S.; Bowker, L.; Finnegan, K.; Geissman, J.; McFadden, L.

    1995-02-01

    Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The risk of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of basaltic volcanic centers. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the Basin and Range province. The long time of activity and characteristic small volume of the Postcaldera basalt of the YMR result in one of the lowest eruptive rates in a volcanic field in the southwest United States. Chapter 5 summarizes current concepts of the segregation, ascent, and eruption of basalt magma. Chapter 6 summarizes the history of volcanism studies (1979 through early 1994), including work for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project and overview studies by the state of Nevada and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Chapter 7 summarizes probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment using a three-part conditional probability model. Chapter 8 describes remaining volcanism work judged to be needed to complete characterization studies for the YMR. Chapter 9 summarizes the conclusions of this volcanism status report

  13. Radiation hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rausch, L.

    1979-01-01

    On a scientific basis and with the aid of realistic examples, the author gives a popular introduction to an understanding and judgment of the public discussion over radiation hazards: Uses and hazards of X-ray examinations, biological radiation effects, civilisation risks in comparison, origins and explanation of radiation protection regulations. (orig.) [de

  14. Development of a risk assessment tool for volcanic urban environments: RiskScape and the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, N. I.; Leonard, G.; King, A.; Wilson, G.; Wilson, T.; Lindsay, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Auckland city, home to a third of New Zealand's population, is situated on top of the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), which last erupted roughly 500 years ago. Since 2008, the Determining Volcanic Risk in Auckland (DEVORA) program has investigated the geologic context of the AVF, improved timing constraints of past eruptions, explored possible tempo-spatial-volume eruption trends, and identified likely styles and hazards of future eruptions. DEVORA is now moving into development of risk and societal models for Auckland. The volcanic module of RiskScape, a multi-hazard risk assessment tool developed by Crown Research Institutes GNS Science and NIWA, will be expanded and used to model risk and impact to the built environment and population caused by a future AVF eruption. RiskScape models casualties, damage and disruption caused by various hazards, the resulting reduced functionality of assets, and associated clean up costs. A strength of RiskScape is that the effect of various mitigation strategies can be explored by strengthening asset attributes and examining resulting changes in the output risk evaluation. We present our framework for building a volcano hazard exposure module for RiskScape along with our approach for assessing asset vulnerability through the development of fragility functions. We also present the framework for engagement with regional Auckland stakeholders, including representatives of local and regional governments and utility companies, to identify complementary needs to ensure that final risk products are relevant and useable by end users.

  15. SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    FV PERRY; GA CROWE; GA VALENTINE; LM BOWKER

    1997-01-01

    This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt ( -7 events per year. Bounding probability estimates are used to assess possible implications of not drilling aeromagnetic anomalies in the Arnargosa Valley and Crater Flat. The results of simulation modeling are used to assess the sensitivity of the disruption probability for the location of northeast boundaries of volcanic zones near the Yucca Mountain site. A new section on modeling of radiological releases associated with surface and subsurface magmatic activity has been added to chapter 6. The modeling results are consistent with past total system performance assessments that show future volcanic and magmatic events are not significant components of repository performance and volcanism is not a priority issue for performance assessment studies

  16. Crustal deformation and volcanism at active plate boundaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geirsson, Halldor

    geometry and secular rates across the plate boundary segments, reveals a deep magma chamber under Hekla and gives a geodetic estimate of the current location of the North-America Eurasian plate boundary in south Iceland. Different geometries were tested for Hekla's magma chamber: spherical, horizontally elongated ellipsoidal, and pipe-like magma chambers. The data could not reliably distinguish the actual geometry; however, all three models indicate magma accumulation near the Moho (˜20-25 km) under Hekla. The February -- March 2000 eruption of Hekla gave another opportunity to image the magmatic system. In Chapter 5, I used co-eruptive GPS and InSAR displacements, borehole strain, and tilt measurements to jointly invert for co-eruptive deformation associated with the 2000 eruption and found a depth of approximately 20 km for the magma chamber, in accordance with my previous results. Telica is a highly seismically active volcano in Nicaragua. The seismicity is mostly of shallow (earthquake per minute averaged over 24 hours, but overall trends in seismic activity, as observed since 1993, do not have an obvious correlation with eruptive activity. This variability causes difficulties for hazard monitoring of Telica. Telica erupted in a small (VEI 2) explosive eruption in 2011. Eruptions of this style and size seem to occur on decadal time scales at Telica. In Chapter 3, I used an extensive multidisciplinary data set consisting of seismic and GPS data, multivariate ash analysis, SO2 measurements, fumarole temperatures, and visual observations, to show that the eruption was essentially an amagmatic eruption of hydrothermally altered materials from the conduit, and that short-term sealing of hydrothermal pathways led to temporary pressure build-up, resulting in the explosions. No significant crustal deformation was detected before or during the eruption, in accordance with low (earthquake offshore El Salvador was the largest event to rupture this segment of the subduction

  17. A model for calculating eruptive volumes for monogenetic volcanoes — Implication for the Quaternary Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kereszturi, Gábor; Németh, Károly; Cronin, Shane J.; Agustín-Flores, Javier; Smith, Ian E. M.; Lindsay, Jan

    2013-10-01

    Monogenetic basaltic volcanism is characterised by a complex array of behaviours in the spatial distribution of magma output and also temporal variability in magma flux and eruptive frequency. Investigating this in detail is hindered by the difficulty in evaluating ages of volcanic events as well as volumes erupted in each volcano. Eruptive volumes are an important input parameter for volcanic hazard assessment and may control eruptive scenarios, especially transitions between explosive and effusive behaviour and the length of eruptions. Erosion, superposition and lack of exposure limit the accuracy of volume determination, even for very young volcanoes. In this study, a systematic volume estimation model is developed and applied to the Auckland Volcanic Field in New Zealand. In this model, a basaltic monogenetic volcano is categorised in six parts. Subsurface portions of volcanoes, such as diatremes beneath phreatomagmatic volcanoes, or crater infills, are approximated by geometrical considerations, based on exposed analogue volcanoes. Positive volcanic landforms, such as scoria/spatter cones, tephras rings and lava flow, were defined by using a Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) survey-based Digital Surface Model (DSM). Finally, the distal tephra associated with explosive eruptions was approximated using published relationships that relate original crater size to ejecta volumes. Considering only those parts with high reliability, the overall magma output (converted to Dense Rock Equivalent) for the post-250 ka active Auckland Volcanic Field in New Zealand is a minimum of 1.704 km3. This is made up of 1.329 km3 in lava flows, 0.067 km3 in phreatomagmatic crater lava infills, 0.090 km3 within tephra/tuff rings, 0.112 km3 inside crater lava infills, and 0.104 km3 within scoria cones. Using the minimum eruptive volumes, the spatial and temporal magma fluxes are estimated at 0.005 km3/km2 and 0.007 km3/ka. The temporal-volumetric evolution of Auckland is

  18. Perceptions of hazard and risk on Santorini

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominey-Howes, Dale; Minos-Minopoulos, Despina

    2004-10-01

    Santorini, Greece is a major explosive volcano. The Santorini volcanic complex is composed of two active volcanoes—Nea Kameni and Mt. Columbo. Holocene eruptions have generated a variety of processes and deposits and eruption mechanisms pose significant hazards of various types. It has been recognized that, for major European volcanoes, few studies have focused on the social aspects of volcanic activity and little work has been conducted on public perceptions of hazard, risk and vulnerability. Such assessments are an important element of establishing public education programmes and developing volcano disaster management plans. We investigate perceptions of volcanic hazards on Santorini. We find that most residents know that Nea Kameni is active, but only 60% know that Mt. Columbo is active. Forty percent of residents fear that negative impacts on tourism will have the greatest effect on their community. In the event of an eruption, 43% of residents would try to evacuate the island by plane/ferry. Residents aged >50 have retained a memory of the effects of the last eruption at the island, whereas younger residents have no such knowledge. We find that dignitaries and municipal officers (those responsible for planning and managing disaster response) are informed about the history, hazards and effects of the volcanoes. However, there is no "emergency plan" for the island and there is confusion between various departments (Civil Defense, Fire, Police, etc.) about the emergency decision-making process. The resident population of Santorini is at high risk from the hazards associated with a future eruption.

  19. [Effects of volcanic eruptions on environment and health].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuskin, Eugenija; Mustajbegović, Jadranka; Doko Jelinić, Jagoda; Pucarin-Cvetković, Jasna; Milosević, Milan

    2007-12-01

    Volcanoes pose a threat to almost half a billion people; today there are approximately 500 active volcanoes on Earth, and every year there are 10 to 40 volcanic eruptions. Volcanic eruptions produce hazardous effects for the environment, climate, and the health of the exposed persons, and are associated with the deterioration of social and economic conditions. Along with magma and steam (H2O), the following gases surface in the environment: carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulphide (H2S), carbon sulphide (CS), carbon disulfide (CS2), hydrogen chloride (HCl), hydrogen (H2), methane (CH4), hydrogen fluoride (HF), hydrogen bromide (HBr) and various organic compounds, as well as heavy metals (mercury, lead, gold).Their unfavourable effects depend on the distance from a volcano, on magma viscosity, and on gas concentrations. The hazards closer to the volcano include pyroclastic flows, flows of mud, gases and steam, earthquakes, blasts of air, and tsunamis. Among the hazards in distant areas are the effects of toxic volcanic ashes and problems of the respiratory system, eyes and skin, as well as psychological effects, injuries, transport and communication problems, waste disposal and water supplies issues, collapse of buildings and power outage. Further effects are the deterioration of water quality, fewer periods of rain, crop damages, and the destruction of vegetation. During volcanic eruptions and their immediate aftermath, increased respiratory system morbidity has been observed as well as mortality among those affected by volcanic eruptions. Unfavourable health effects could partly be prevented by timely application of safety measures.

  20. Volcanic risk; Risque volcanique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rancon, J.P.; Baubron, J.C.

    1995-12-31

    This project follows the previous multi-disciplinary studies carried out by the French Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) on the two active volcanoes of the French lesser Antilles: Mt Pelee (Martinique) and Soufriere (Guadeloupe) for which geological maps and volcanic risk studies have been achieved. The research program comprises 5 parts: the study of pyroclastic deposits from recent eruptions of the two volcanoes for a better characterization of their eruptive phenomenology and a better definition of crisis scenarios; the study of deposits and structures of active volcanoes from Central America and the study of eruptive dynamics of andesite volcanoes for a transposition to Antilles` volcanoes; the starting of a methodological multi-disciplinary research (volcanology, geography, sociology...) on the volcanic risk analysis and on the management of a future crisis; and finally, the development of geochemical survey techniques (radon, CO{sub 2}, H{sub 2}O) on active volcanoes of Costa-Rica and Europe (Fournaise, Furnas, Etna) and their application to the Soufriere. (J.S.). 9 refs., 3 figs.

  1. Volcanic Eruptions and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeGrande, Allegra N.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.

    2015-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions represent some of the most climatically important and societally disruptive short-term events in human history. Large eruptions inject ash, dust, sulfurous gases (e.g. SO2, H2S), halogens (e.g. Hcl and Hbr), and water vapor into the Earth's atmosphere. Sulfurous emissions principally interact with the climate by converting into sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming solar radiation, warming the stratosphere and altering ozone creation, reducing global mean surface temperature, and suppressing the hydrological cycle. In this issue, we focus on the history, processes, and consequences of these large eruptions that inject enough material into the stratosphere to significantly affect the climate system. In terms of the changes wrought on the energy balance of the Earth System, these transient events can temporarily have a radiative forcing magnitude larger than the range of solar, greenhouse gas, and land use variability over the last millennium. In simulations as well as modern and paleoclimate observations, volcanic eruptions cause large inter-annual to decadal-scale changes in climate. Active debates persist concerning their role in longer-term (multi-decadal to centennial) modification of the Earth System, however.

  2. The Dilemmas of Risk-Sensitive Development on a Small Volcanic Island

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Wilkinson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the Small Islands Developing State (SIDS of St Vincent and the Grenadines in the Caribbean, the most destructive disasters in terms of human casualties have been the multiple eruptions of La Soufrière volcano situated in the north of St Vincent. Despite this major threat, people continue to live close to the volcano and national development plans do not include risk reduction measures for volcanic hazards. This paper examines the development options in volcanic SIDS and presents a number of conundrums for disaster risk management on the island of St Vincent. Improvements in monitoring of volcanic hazards and ongoing programmes to enhance communications systems and encourage community preparedness planning have increased awareness of the risks associated with volcanic hazards, yet this has not translated into more risk-informed development planning decisions. The current physical development plan in fact promotes investment in infrastructure in settlements located within the zone designated very high-hazard. However, this is not an anomaly or an irrational decision: severe space constraints in SIDS, as well as other historical social and economic factors, limit growth and options for low-risk development. Greater attention needs to be placed on developing measures to reduce risk, particularly from low-intensity hazards like ash, limiting where possible exposure to volcanic hazards and building the resilience of communities living in high-risk areas. This requires planning for both short- and longer-term impacts from renewed activity. Volcanic SIDS face multiple hazards because of their geography and topography, so development plans should identify these interconnected risks and options for their reduction, alongside measures aimed at improving personal preparedness plans so communities can learn to live with risk.

  3. Months between rejuvenation and volcanic eruption at Yellowstone caldera, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Till, Christy B.; Vazquez, Jorge A.; Boyce, Jeremy W

    2015-01-01

    Rejuvenation of previously intruded silicic magma is an important process leading to effusive rhyolite, which is the most common product of volcanism at calderas with protracted histories of eruption and unrest such as Yellowstone, Long Valley, and Valles, USA. Although orders of magnitude smaller in volume than rare caldera-forming super-eruptions, these relatively frequent effusions of rhyolite are comparable to the largest eruptions of the 20th century and pose a considerable volcanic hazard. However, the physical pathway from rejuvenation to eruption of silicic magma is unclear particularly because the time between reheating of a subvolcanic intrusion and eruption is poorly quantified. This study uses geospeedometry of trace element profiles with nanometer resolution in sanidine crystals to reveal that Yellowstone’s most recent volcanic cycle began when remobilization of a near- or sub-solidus silicic magma occurred less than 10 months prior to eruption, following a 220,000 year period of volcanic repose. Our results reveal a geologically rapid timescale for rejuvenation and effusion of ~3 km3 of high-silica rhyolite lava even after protracted cooling of the subvolcanic system, which is consistent with recent physical modeling that predict a timescale of several years or less. Future renewal of rhyolitic volcanism at Yellowstone is likely to require an energetic intrusion of mafic or silicic magma into the shallow subvolcanic reservoir and could rapidly generate an eruptible rhyolite on timescales similar to those documented here.

  4. On a Possible Unified Scaling Law for Volcanic Eruption Durations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannavò, Flavio; Nunnari, Giuseppe

    2016-03-01

    Volcanoes constitute dissipative systems with many degrees of freedom. Their eruptions are the result of complex processes that involve interacting chemical-physical systems. At present, due to the complexity of involved phenomena and to the lack of precise measurements, both analytical and numerical models are unable to simultaneously include the main processes involved in eruptions thus making forecasts of volcanic dynamics rather unreliable. On the other hand, accurate forecasts of some eruption parameters, such as the duration, could be a key factor in natural hazard estimation and mitigation. Analyzing a large database with most of all the known volcanic eruptions, we have determined that the duration of eruptions seems to be described by a universal distribution which characterizes eruption duration dynamics. In particular, this paper presents a plausible global power-law distribution of durations of volcanic eruptions that holds worldwide for different volcanic environments. We also introduce a new, simple and realistic pipe model that can follow the same found empirical distribution. Since the proposed model belongs to the family of the self-organized systems it may support the hypothesis that simple mechanisms can lead naturally to the emergent complexity in volcanic behaviour.

  5. Hazardous materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... substances that could harm human health or the environment. Hazardous means dangerous, so these materials must be ... M. is also a founding member of Hi-Ethics and subscribes to the principles of the Health ...

  6. ''Hazardous'' terminology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powers, J.

    1991-01-01

    A number of terms (e.g., ''hazardous chemicals,'' ''hazardous materials,'' ''hazardous waste,'' and similar nomenclature) refer to substances that are subject to regulation under one or more federal environmental laws. State laws and regulations also provide additional, similar, or identical terminology that may be confused with the federally defined terms. Many of these terms appear synonymous, and it easy to use them interchangeably. However, in a regulatory context, inappropriate use of narrowly defined terms can lead to confusion about the substances referred to, the statutory provisions that apply, and the regulatory requirements for compliance under the applicable federal statutes. This information Brief provides regulatory definitions, a brief discussion of compliance requirements, and references for the precise terminology that should be used when referring to ''hazardous'' substances regulated under federal environmental laws. A companion CERCLA Information Brief (EH-231-004/0191) addresses ''toxic'' nomenclature

  7. Hazardous Chemicals

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Chemicals are a part of our daily lives, providing many products and modern conveniences. With more than three decades of experience, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been in the forefront of efforts to protect and assess people's exposure to environmental and hazardous chemicals. This report provides information about hazardous chemicals and useful tips on how to protect you and your family from harmful exposure.

  8. Welding hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, M.A.

    1992-01-01

    Welding technology is advancing rapidly in the developed countries and has converted into a science. Welding involving the use of electricity include resistance welding. Welding shops are opened in residential area, which was causing safety hazards, particularly the teenagers and children who eagerly see the welding arc with their naked eyes. There are radiation hazards from ultra violet rays which irritate the skin, eye irritation. Welding arc light of such intensity could damage the eyes. (Orig./A.B.)

  9. Barrow hazards survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-06-01

    Following a series of public meetings at which PERG presented the results of a literature review and site specific accident study of the hazards of the maritime transport of spent nuclear reactor fuel to Barrow (en route to the Windscale reprocessing works), PERG was requested by the Planning Committee of Barrow Town Council to prepare an assessment of the interaction of the hazards arising from the concentration of nuclear activities in the area with those of a proposed gas-terminal. This report presents a preliminary review of the Environmental Impact Assessments prepared by the Borough Surveyor and a critical appraisal of the hazard analyses undertaken by the Health and Safety Executive, and the consultants to Cumbria County Council on this matter, the Safety and Reliability Directorate of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority. After a general and historical introduction, the document continues under the following headings: a description of the hazards (BNFL spent fuel shipments; the gas terminal; gas condensate storage; the Vickers shipyard (involving nuclear powered submarines)); the interaction of hazards; planning implications and democratic decisions; recommendations. (U.K.)

  10. The onset of the volcanism in the Ciomadul Volcanic Dome Complex (Eastern Carpathians): Eruption chronology and magma type variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnár, Kata; Harangi, Szabolcs; Lukács, Réka; Dunkl, István; Schmitt, Axel K.; Kiss, Balázs; Garamhegyi, Tamás; Seghedi, Ioan

    2018-04-01

    volcanic eruptions were often separated by prolonged (ca. 100 to 200 kyr) quiescence periods. Demonstration of recurrence of volcanism even after such long dormancy has to be considered in assessing volcanic hazards, particularly in seemingly inactive volcanic areas, where no Holocene eruptions occurred. The term of 'volcanoes with Potentially Active Magma Storage' illustrates the potential of volcanic rejuvenation for such long-dormant volcanoes with the existence of melt-bearing crustal magma body.

  11. Closer look at lunar volcanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaniman, D.T.; Heiken, G.; Taylor, G.J.

    1984-01-01

    Although the American Apollo and Soviet Luna missions concentrated on mare basalt samples, major questions remain about lunar volcanism. Lunar field work will be indispensable for resolving the scientific questions about ages, compositions, and eruption processes of lunar volcanism. From a utilitarian standpoint, a better knowledge of lunar volcanism will also yield profitable returns in lunar base construction (e.g., exploitation of rille or lava-tube structures) and in access to materials such as volatile elements, pure glass, or ilmenite for lunar industry

  12. Relocating San Miguel Volcanic Seismic Events for Receiver Functions and Tomographic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlan, E.; Velasco, A. A.; Konter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and -88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. Furthermore, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We will calculate receiver functions to determine the thickness of San Miguel volcano internal structure, within the Caribbean plate. Crustal thicknesses will be modeled using calculated receiver functions from both theoretical and hand-picked P-wave arrivals. We will use this information derived from receiver functions, along with P-wave delay times, to map the location of the magma chamber.

  13. The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory: a natural laboratory for studying basaltic volcanism: Chapter 1 in Characteristics of Hawaiian volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tilling, Robert I.; Kauahikaua, James P.; Brantley, Steven R.; Neal, Christina A.; Poland, Michael P.; Takahashi, T. Jane; Landowski, Claire M.

    2014-01-01

    In the beginning of the 20th century, geologist Thomas A. Jaggar, Jr., argued that, to fully understand volcanic and associated hazards, the expeditionary mode of studying eruptions only after they occurred was inadequate. Instead, he fervently advocated the use of permanent observatories to record and measure volcanic phenomena—at and below the surface—before, during, and after eruptions to obtain the basic scientific information needed to protect people and property from volcanic hazards. With the crucial early help of American volcanologist Frank Alvord Perret and the Hawaiian business community, the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) was established in 1912, and Jaggar’s vision became reality. From its inception, HVO’s mission has centered on several goals: (1) measuring and documenting the seismic, eruptive, and geodetic processes of active Hawaiian volcanoes (principally Kīlauea and Mauna Loa); (2) geological mapping and dating of deposits to reconstruct volcanic histories, understand island evolution, and determine eruptive frequencies and volcanic hazards; (3) systematically collecting eruptive products, including gases, for laboratory analysis; and (4) widely disseminating observatory-acquired data and analysis, reports, and hazard warnings to the global scientific community, emergency-management authorities, news media, and the public. The long-term focus on these goals by HVO scientists, in collaboration with investigators from many other organizations, continues to fulfill Jaggar’s career-long vision of reducing risks from volcanic and earthquake hazards across the globe.

  14. OSS reliability measurement and assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Yamada, Shigeru

    2016-01-01

    This book analyses quantitative open source software (OSS) reliability assessment and its applications, focusing on three major topic areas: the Fundamentals of OSS Quality/Reliability Measurement and Assessment; the Practical Applications of OSS Reliability Modelling; and Recent Developments in OSS Reliability Modelling. Offering an ideal reference guide for graduate students and researchers in reliability for open source software (OSS) and modelling, the book introduces several methods of reliability assessment for OSS including component-oriented reliability analysis based on analytic hierarchy process (AHP), analytic network process (ANP), and non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) models, the stochastic differential equation models and hazard rate models. These measurement and management technologies are essential to producing and maintaining quality/reliable systems using OSS.

  15. Review of the petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, I.E.M.; McGee, L.E.; Lindsay, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Research has long shown that the petrology of suites of volcanic rock can be used to define and understand the fundamental parameters of the magmatic systems that feed volcanoes. The geochemistry of volcanic rocks provides information about the nature of the source rocks, depths and amounts of melting, the processes that act on magmas as they rise to the surface and, most importantly, the rates of these processes. In turn, the answers to fundamental petrological questions can provide input to important questions concerning volcano hazard scenarios and hazard mitigation challenges. The multi-disciplinary DEVORA research programme, launched in 2008, is a GNS Science-University of Auckland collaboration with the aim of DEtermining VOlcanic Risk in Auckland. One of its main themes is the development of an integrated geological model for the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) by investigating the physical controls on magma generation, ascent and eruption though detailed structural and petrological investigations. A key data set underpinning this theme is a comprehensive geochemical database for the rocks of the AVF. This report, Review of the Petrology of the Auckland Volcanic Field, is a synthesis and commentary of all petrological and geochemical data currently available for the AVF. It represents one of several reports carried out as part of the 'synthesis' phase of DEVORA, whereby existing data from previous work is collated and summarised, so that gaps in current knowledge can be appropriately addressed. In this report we utilise published and unpublished sources to summarise the petrological data available up to May 2009, and identify where new data and approaches will improve our understanding of the magmatic system which feeds the field. (author). 53 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Hazardous Chemicals

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2007-04-10

    Chemicals are a part of our daily lives, providing many products and modern conveniences. With more than three decades of experience, The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been in the forefront of efforts to protect and assess people's exposure to environmental and hazardous chemicals. This report provides information about hazardous chemicals and useful tips on how to protect you and your family from harmful exposure.  Created: 4/10/2007 by CDC National Center for Environmental Health.   Date Released: 4/13/2007.

  17. Global volcanic earthquake swarm database and preliminary analysis of volcanic earthquake swarm duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. McNutt

    1996-06-01

    Full Text Available Global data from 1979 to 1989 pertaining to volcanic earthquake swarms have been compiled into a custom-designed relational database. The database is composed of three sections: 1 a section containing general information on volcanoes, 2 a section containing earthquake swarm data (such as dates of swarm occurrence and durations, and 3 a section containing eruption information. The most abundant and reliable parameter, duration of volcanic earthquake swarms, was chosen for preliminary analysis. The distribution of all swarm durations was found to have a geometric mean of 5.5 days. Precursory swarms were then separated from those not associated with eruptions. The geometric mean precursory swarm duration was 8 days whereas the geometric mean duration of swarms not associated with eruptive activity was 3.5 days. Two groups of precursory swarms are apparent when duration is compared with the eruption repose time. Swarms with durations shorter than 4 months showed no clear relationship with the eruption repose time. However, the second group, lasting longer than 4 months, showed a significant positive correlation with the log10 of the eruption repose period. The two groups suggest that different suites of physical processes are involved in the generation of volcanic earthquake swarms.

  18. Volcanology: Volcanic bipolar disorder explained

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jellinek, Mark

    2014-02-01

    Eruptions come in a range of magnitudes. Numerical simulations and laboratory experiments show that rare, giant super-eruptions and smaller, more frequent events reflect a transition in the essential driving forces for volcanism.

  19. Lidar sounding of volcanic plumes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiorani, Luca; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Angelini, Federico; Borelli, Rodolfo; Del Franco, Mario; Murra, Daniele; Pistilli, Marco; Puiu, Adriana; Santoro, Simone

    2013-10-01

    Accurate knowledge of gas composition in volcanic plumes has high scientific and societal value. On the one hand, it gives information on the geophysical processes taking place inside volcanos; on the other hand, it provides alert on possible eruptions. For this reasons, it has been suggested to monitor volcanic plumes by lidar. In particular, one of the aims of the FP7 ERC project BRIDGE is the measurement of CO2 concentration in volcanic gases by differential absorption lidar. This is a very challenging task due to the harsh environment, the narrowness and weakness of the CO2 absorption lines and the difficulty to procure a suitable laser source. This paper, after a review on remote sensing of volcanic plumes, reports on the current progress of the lidar system.

  20. VOLCANIC RISK ASSESSMENT - PROBABILITY AND CONSEQUENCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    G.A. Valentine; F.V. Perry; S. Dartevelle

    2005-01-01

    Risk is the product of the probability and consequences of an event. Both of these must be based upon sound science that integrates field data, experiments, and modeling, but must also be useful to decision makers who likely do not understand all aspects of the underlying science. We review a decision framework used in many fields such as performance assessment for hazardous and/or radioactive waste disposal sites that can serve to guide the volcanological community towards integrated risk assessment. In this framework the underlying scientific understanding of processes that affect probability and consequences drive the decision-level results, but in turn these results can drive focused research in areas that cause the greatest level of uncertainty at the decision level. We review two examples of the determination of volcanic event probability: (1) probability of a new volcano forming at the proposed Yucca Mountain radioactive waste repository, and (2) probability that a subsurface repository in Japan would be affected by the nearby formation of a new stratovolcano. We also provide examples of work on consequences of explosive eruptions, within the framework mentioned above. These include field-based studies aimed at providing data for ''closure'' of wall rock erosion terms in a conduit flow model, predictions of dynamic pressure and other variables related to damage by pyroclastic flow into underground structures, and vulnerability criteria for structures subjected to conditions of explosive eruption. Process models (e.g., multiphase flow) are important for testing the validity or relative importance of possible scenarios in a volcanic risk assessment. We show how time-dependent multiphase modeling of explosive ''eruption'' of basaltic magma into an open tunnel (drift) at the Yucca Mountain repository provides insight into proposed scenarios that include the development of secondary pathways to the Earth's surface. Addressing volcanic risk within a decision

  1. Volcanic eruption plumes on Io

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strom, R.G.; Terrile, R.J.; Masursky, H.; Hansen, C.

    1979-01-01

    The detection of an umbrella-shaped plume extending about 280 km above the bright limb of Io was one of the most important discoveries made during the Voyager 1 encounter with the jovian system. This discovery proves that Io is volcanically active at present, and the number and magnitude of these eruptions indicate that Io is the most volcanically active body so far discovered in the Solar System. Preliminary analyses of these eruptive plumes are presented. (U.K.)

  2. Volcanic crisis in

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mgs. Víctor Manuel Pérez Martínez

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is the result of an investigation which is focussed on some deontological aspects of the scientificjournalism. In the first place it gives a theoretical vision about science, journalism, internet and including some reflectionsabout the deontological principles in handling the information about science and technology. This focus is useful as it formsthe base of an investigation where we deal with the information about a possible ”volcanic crisis” in El Teide during the years2004-2005 done by the digital newspaper” El Dïa” a canarian newspaper from Tenerife. The work required the revision of theinformation which was published and a followed analysis of its context. It was used the digital version with the purpose ofvisualizing the news which was published. It was also compared with a printed version, with local cover but divulged theinformation to the public who was most affected by this particular news. The results give rise to some questions regardinghow the information is given to a topic which is of local interest as well as national and international interest due to therepercussions in the social, economical and tourist field (the tourist field is the main industrial sector in Tenerife by receivingthis type of news.

  3. Effects of volcanic deposit disaggregation on exposed water composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Back, W. E.; Genareau, K. D.

    2016-12-01

    Explosive volcanic eruptions produce a variety of hazards. Pyroclastic material can be introduced to water through ash fallout, pyroclastic flows entering water bodies, and/or lahars. Remobilization of tephras can occur soon after eruption or centuries later, introducing additional pyroclastic material into the environment. Introduction of pyroclastic material may alter the dissolved element concentration and pH of exposed waters, potentially impacting drinking water supplies, agriculture, and ecology. This study focuses on the long-term impacts of volcanic deposits on water composition due to the mechanical breakup of volcanic deposits over time. Preliminary work has shown that mechanical milling of volcanic deposits will cause significant increases in dissolved element concentrations, conductivity, and pH of aqueous solutions. Pyroclastic material from seven eruptions sites was collected, mechanically milled to produce grain sizes Soufriere Hills, Ruapehu), mafic (Lathrop Wells) and ultramafic (mantle xenoliths) volcanic deposits. Lathrop Wells has an average bulk concentration of 49.15 wt.% SiO2, 6.11 wt. % MgO, and 8.39 wt. % CaO and produces leachate concentrations of 85.69 mg/kg for Ca and 37.22 mg/kg for Mg. Taupo and Valles Caldera samples have a bulk concentration of 72.9 wt.% SiO2, 0.59 wt. % MgO, and 1.48 wt. % CaO, and produces leachate concentrations of 4.08 mg/kg for Ca and 1.56 mg/kg for Mg. Similar testing will be conducted on the intermediate and ultramafic samples to test the hypothesis that bulk magma composition and mineralogy will directly relate to the increased dissolved element concentration of exposed waters. The measured effects on aqueous solutions will aid in evaluation of impacts to marine and freshwater systems exposed to volcanic deposits.

  4. Software reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bendell, A

    1986-01-01

    Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

  5. United States-Chile binational exchange for volcanic risk reduction, 2015—Activities and benefits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierson, Thomas C.; Mangan, Margaret T.; Lara Pulgar, Luis E.; Ramos Amigo, Álvaro

    2017-07-25

    In 2015, representatives from the United States and Chile exchanged visits to discuss and share their expertise and experiences dealing with volcano hazards. Communities in both countries are at risk from various volcano hazards. Risks to lives and property posed by these hazards are a function not only of the type and size of future eruptions but also of distances from volcanoes, structural integrity of volcanic edifices, landscape changes imposed by recent past eruptions, exposure of people and resources to harm, and any mitigative measures taken (or not taken) to reduce risk. Thus, effective risk-reduction efforts require the knowledge and consideration of many factors, and firsthand experience with past volcano crises provides a tremendous advantage for this work. However, most scientists monitoring volcanoes and most officials delegated with the responsibility for emergency response and management in volcanic areas have little or no firsthand experience with eruptions or volcano hazards. The reality is that eruptions are infrequent in most regions, and individual volcanoes may have dormant periods lasting hundreds to thousands of years. Knowledge may be lacking about how to best plan for and manage future volcanic crises, and much can be learned from the sharing of insights and experiences among counterpart specialists who have had direct, recent, or different experiences in dealing with restless volcanoes and threatened populations. The sharing of information and best practices can help all volcano scientists and officials to better prepare for future eruptions or noneruptive volcano hazards, such as large volcanic mudflows (lahars), which could affect their communities.

  6. “Points requiring elucidation” about Hawaiian volcanism: Chapter 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael P.; Carey, Rebecca; Cayol, Valérie; Poland, Michael P.; Weis, Dominique

    2015-01-01

    Hawaiian volcanoes, which are easily accessed and observed at close range, are among the most studied on the planet and have spurred great advances in the geosciences, from understanding deep Earth processes to forecasting volcanic eruptions. More than a century of continuous observation and study of Hawai‘i's volcanoes has also sharpened focus on those questions that remain unanswered. Although there is good evidence that volcanism in Hawai‘i is the result of a high-temperature upwelling plume from the mantle, the source composition and dynamics of the plume are controversial. Eruptions at the surface build the volcanoes of Hawai‘i, but important topics, including how the volcanoes grow and collapse and how magma is stored and transported, continue to be subjects of intense research. Forecasting volcanic activity is based mostly on pattern recognition, but determining and predicting the nature of eruptions, especially in serving the critical needs of hazards mitigation, require more realistic models and a greater understanding of what drives eruptive activity. These needs may be addressed by better integration among disciplines as well as by developing dynamic physics- and chemistry-based models that more thoroughly relate the physiochemical behavior of Hawaiian volcanism, from the deep Earth to the surface, to geological, geochemical, and geophysical data.

  7. Volcanic fluxes of volatiles. Preliminary estimates based on rare gas and major volatile calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marty, B.

    1992-01-01

    New estimates for volatile fluxes into the atmosphere and hydrosphere through volcanism have been computed using the measured fluxes of 3 He in oceans and SO 2 in the atmosphere, and the ratios between the volatiles in Mid-Ocean Ridge basalts and in high temperature volcanic gases. These estimates have been checked using independent estimates of the volcanic fluxes. This method provides a reliable means of tracing volatile fluxes, although its precision is restricted by the limited amount of data currently available. (author). 19 refs, 1 tab

  8. Radioactive hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gill, J.R.

    1980-01-01

    The use of radioactive substances in hospital laboratories is discussed and the attendant hazards and necessary precautions examined. The new legislation under the Health and Safety at Work Act which, it is proposed, will replace existing legal requirements in the field of health and safety at work by a system of regulations and approved codes of practice designed to maintain or improve the standards of health, safety and welfare already established, is considered with particular reference to protection against ionising radiations. (UK)

  9. Deriving spatial patterns from a novel database of volcanic rock geochemistry in the Virunga Volcanic Province, East African Rift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, Sam; Barette, Florian; Smets, Benoît; Benbakkar, Mhammed; Kervyn, Matthieu

    2016-04-01

    eruption of 1957 belongs to these primitive clusters and is the only known to have erupted outside the current rift valley in historical times. We thus infer there is a distributed hazard of vent opening susceptibility additional to the susceptibility associated with the main Virunga edifices. This study suggests that the statistical analysis of such geochemical database may help to understand complex volcanic plumbing systems and the spatial distribution of volcanic hazards in active and poorly known volcanic areas such as the Virunga Volcanic Province.

  10. Volcanic geomorphology using TanDEM-X

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Michael; Kubanek, Julia

    2016-04-01

    Topography is perhaps the most fundamental dataset for any volcano, yet is surprisingly difficult to collect, especially during the course of an eruption. For example, photogrammetry and lidar are time-intensive and often expensive, and they cannot be employed when the surface is obscured by clouds. Ground-based surveys can operate in poor weather but have poor spatial resolution and may expose personnel to hazardous conditions. Repeat passes of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data provide excellent spatial resolution, but topography in areas of surface change (from vegetation swaying in the wind to physical changes in the landscape) between radar passes cannot be imaged. The German Space Agency's TanDEM-X satellite system, however, solves this issue by simultaneously acquiring SAR data of the surface using a pair of orbiting satellites, thereby removing temporal change as a complicating factor in SAR-based topographic mapping. TanDEM-X measurements have demonstrated exceptional value in mapping the topography of volcanic environments in as-yet limited applications. The data provide excellent resolution (down to ~3-m pixel size) and are useful for updating topographic data at volcanoes where surface change has occurred since the most recent topographic dataset was collected. Such data can be used for applications ranging from correcting radar interferograms for topography, to modeling flow pathways in support of hazards mitigation. The most valuable contributions, however, relate to calculating volume changes related to eruptive activity. For example, limited datasets have provided critical measurements of lava dome growth and collapse at volcanoes including Merapi (Indonesia), Colima (Mexico), and Soufriere Hills (Montserrat), and of basaltic lava flow emplacement at Tolbachik (Kamchatka), Etna (Italy), and Kīlauea (Hawai`i). With topographic data spanning an eruption, it is possible to calculate eruption rates - information that might not otherwise be available

  11. 76 FR 72216 - Occupational Exposure to Hazardous Chemicals in Laboratories Standard; Extension of the Office of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-22

    ... accordance with the Standard's definitions for ``laboratory use of hazardous chemicals'' and ``laboratory... using hazardous chemicals; hazard-control techniques; equipment- reliability measures; worker... burden (time and costs) of the information collection requirements, including the validity of the...

  12. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1987-01-01

    Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

  13. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  14. Chronology and References of Volcanic Eruptions and Selected Unrest in the United States, 1980-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diefenbach, Angela K.; Guffanti, Marianne; Ewert, John W.

    2009-01-01

    The United States ranks as one of the top countries in the world in the number of young, active volcanoes within its borders. The United States, including the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, is home to approximately 170 geologically active (age activity, unrest, that do not culminate in eruptions. Monitoring volcanic activity in the United States is the responsibility of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Volcano Hazards Program (VHP) and is accomplished with academic, Federal, and State partners. The VHP supports five Volcano Observatories - the Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), Long Valley Observatory (LVO), and Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). With the exception of HVO, which was established in 1912, the U.S. Volcano Observatories have been established in the past 27 years in response to specific volcanic eruptions or sustained levels of unrest. As understanding of volcanic activity and hazards has grown over the years, so have the extent and types of monitoring networks and techniques available to detect early signs of anomalous volcanic behavior. This increased capability is providing us with a more accurate gauge of volcanic activity in the United States. The purpose of this report is to (1) document the range of volcanic activity that U.S. Volcano Observatories have dealt with, beginning with the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens, (2) describe some overall characteristics of the activity, and (3) serve as a quick reference to pertinent published literature on the eruptions and unrest documented in this report.

  15. Detecting Volcanic Ash Plumes with GNSS Signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainville, N.; Larson, K. M.; Palo, S. E.; Mattia, M.; Rossi, M.; Coltelli, M.; Roesler, C.; Fee, D.

    2016-12-01

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers are commonly placed near volcanic sites to measure ground deformation. In addition to the carrier phase data used to measure ground position, these receivers also record Signal to Noise ratio (SNR) data. Larson (2013) showed that attenuations in SNR data strongly correlate with ash emissions at a series of eruptions of Redoubt Volcano. This finding has been confirmed at eruptions for Tongariro, Mt Etna, Mt Shindake, and Sakurajima. In each of these detections, very expensive geodetic quality GNSS receivers were used. If low-cost GNSS instruments could be used instead, a networked array could be deployed and optimized for plume detection and tomography. The outputs of this sensor array could then be used by both local volcanic observatories and Volcano Ash Advisory Centers. Here we will describe progress in developing such an array. The sensors we are working with are intended for navigation use, and thus lack the supporting power and communications equipment necessary for a networked system. Reliably providing those features is major challenge for the overall sensor design. We have built prototypes of our Volcano Ash Plume Receiver (VAPR), with solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and onboard data storage for preliminary testing. We will present results of our field tests of both receivers and antennas. A second critical need for our array is a reliable detection algorithm. We have tested our algorithm on data from recent eruptions and have incorporated the noise characteristics of the low-cost GNSS receiver. We have also developed a simulation capability so that the receivers can be deployed to optimize vent crossing GNSS signals.

  16. Progress in Near Real-Time Volcanic Cloud Observations Using Satellite UV Instruments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krotkov, N. A.; Yang, K.; Vicente, G.; Hughes, E. J.; Carn, S. A.; Krueger, A. J.

    2011-12-01

    Volcanic clouds from explosive eruptions can wreak havoc in many parts of the world, as exemplified by the 2010 eruption at the Eyjafjöll volcano in Iceland, which caused widespread disruption to air traffic and resulted in economic impacts across the globe. A suite of satellite-based systems offer the most effective means to monitor active volcanoes and to track the movement of volcanic clouds globally, providing critical information for aviation hazard mitigation. Satellite UV sensors, as part of this suite, have a long history of making unique near-real time (NRT) measurements of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash (aerosol Index) in volcanic clouds to supplement operational volcanic ash monitoring. Recently a NASA application project has shown that the use of near real-time (NRT,i.e., not older than 3 h) Aura/OMI satellite data produces a marked improvement in volcanic cloud detection using SO2 combined with Aerosol Index (AI) as a marker for ash. An operational online NRT OMI AI and SO2 image and data product distribution system was developed in collaboration with the NOAA Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution. Automated volcanic eruption alarms, and the production of volcanic cloud subsets for multiple regions are provided through the NOAA website. The data provide valuable information in support of the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration goal of a safe and efficient National Air Space. In this presentation, we will highlight the advantages of UV techniques and describe the advances in volcanic SO2 plume height estimation and enhanced volcanic ash detection using hyper-spectral UV measurements, illustrated with Aura/OMI observations of recent eruptions. We will share our plan to provide near-real-time volcanic cloud monitoring service using the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS).

  17. Using Digital Cameras to Detect Warning Signs of Volcanic Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girona, T.; Huber, C.; Trinh, K. T.; Protti, M.; Pacheco, J. F.

    2017-12-01

    Monitoring volcanic outgassing is fundamental to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions. Recent efforts have led to the advent of new methods to measure the concentration and flux of volcanic gases with unprecedented temporal resolution, thus allowing us to obtain reliable high-frequency (up to 1 Hz) time series of outgassing activity. These high-frequency methods have shown that volcanic outgassing can be periodic sometimes (with periodicities ranging from 101 s to 103 s), although it remains unknown whether the spectral features of outgassing reflect the processes that ultimately trigger volcanic unrest and eruptions. In this study, we explore the evolution of the spectral content of the outgassing activity of Turrialba volcano (Costa Rica) using digital images (with digital brightness as a proxy for the emissions of water vapor [Girona et al., 2015]). Images were taken at 1 km distance with 1 Hz sampling rate, and the time period analyzed (from April 2016 to April 2017) is characterized by episodes of quiescent outgassing, ash explosions, and sporadic eruptions of ballistics. Our preliminary results show that: 1) quiescent states of Turrialba volcano are characterized by outgassing frequency spectra with fractal distribution; 2) superimposed onto the fractal frequency spectra, well-defined pulses with period around 100 s emerge hours to days before some of the eruptions of ballistics. An important conclusion of this study is that digital cameras can be potentially used in real-time volcano monitoring to detect warning signs of eruptions, as well as to better understand subsurface processes and track the changing conditions below volcanic craters. Our ongoing study also explores the correlation between the evolution of the spectral content of outgassing, infrasound data, and shallow seismicity. Girona, T., F. Costa, B. Taisne, B. Aggangan, and S. Ildefonso (2015), Fractal degassing from Erebus and Mayon volcanoes revealed by a new method to monitor H2O

  18. Climatic impact of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampino, Michael R.

    1991-01-01

    Studies have attempted to 'isolate' the volcanic signal in noisy temperature data. This assumes that it is possible to isolate a distinct volcanic signal in a record that may have a combination of forcings (ENSO, solar variability, random fluctuations, volcanism) that all interact. The key to discovering the greatest effects of volcanoes on short-term climate may be to concentrate on temperatures in regions where the effects of aerosol clouds may be amplified by perturbed atmospheric circulation patterns. This is especially true in subpolar and midlatitude areas affected by changes in the position of the polar front. Such climatic perturbation can be detected in proxy evidence such as decrease in tree-ring widths and frost rings, changes in the treeline, weather anomalies, severity of sea-ice in polar and subpolar regions, and poor grain yields and crop failures. In low latitudes, sudden temperature drops were correlated with the passage overhead of the volcanic dust cloud (Stothers, 1984). For some eruptions, such as Tambora, 1815, these kinds of proxy and anectdotal information were summarized in great detail in a number of papers and books (e.g., Post, 1978; Stothers, 1984; Stommel and Stommel, 1986; C. R. Harrington, in press). These studies lead to the general conclusion that regional effects on climate, sometimes quite severe, may be the major impact of large historical volcanic aerosol clouds.

  19. Rate of volcanism on Venus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fegley, B. Jr.; Prinn, R.G.

    1988-07-01

    The maintenance of the global H 2 SO 4 clouds on Venus requires volcanism to replenish the atmospheric SO 2 which is continually being removed from the atmosphere by reaction with calcium minerals on the surface of Venus. The first laboratory measurements of the rate of one such reaction, between SO 2 and calcite (CaCO 3 ) to form anhydrite (CaSO 4 ), are reported. If the rate of this reaction is representative of the SO 2 reaction rate at the Venus surface, then we estimate that all SO 2 in the Venus atmosphere (and thus the H 2 SO 4 clouds) will be removed in 1.9 million years unless the lost SO 2 is replenished by volcanism. The required rate of volcanism ranges from about 0.4 to about 11 cu km of magma erupted per year, depending on the assumed sulfur content of the erupted material. If this material has the same composition as the Venus surface at the Venera 13, 14 and Vega 2 landing sites, then the required rate of volcanism is about 1 cu km per year. This independent geochemically estimated rate can be used to determine if either (or neither) of the two discordant (2 cu km/year vs. 200 to 300 cu km/year) geophysically estimated rates is correct. The geochemically estimated rate also suggests that Venus is less volcanically active than the Earth

  20. Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

    OpenAIRE

    Di Mai, R.; Mauriello, P.; Patella, D.; Petrillo, Z.; Piscitelli, S.; Siniscalchi, A.; Veneruso, M.

    1997-01-01

    We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, wh...

  1. Volcanic Eruptions in Kamchatka

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Sheveluch Stratovolcano Click on the image for full resolution TIFF Klyuchevskoy Stratovolcano Click on the image for full resolution TIFF One of the most volcanically active regions of the world is the Kamchatka Peninsula in eastern Siberia, Russia. It is not uncommon for several volcanoes to be erupting at the same time. On April 26, 2007, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radioneter (ASTER) on NASA's Terra spacecraft captured these images of the Klyuchevskoy and Sheveluch stratovolcanoes, erupting simultaneously, and 80 kilometers (50 miles) apart. Over Klyuchevskoy, the thermal infrared data (overlaid in red) indicates that two open-channel lava flows are descending the northwest flank of the volcano. Also visible is an ash-and-water plume extending to the east. Sheveluch volcano is partially cloud-covered. The hot flows highlighted in red come from a lava dome at the summit. They are avalanches of material from the dome, and pyroclastic flows. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra spacecraft. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products. The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER provides scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and

  2. Center for Volcanic and Tectonic Studies: 1992--1993 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The annual report of the Center for Volcanic Studies (CVTS) contains a series of papers, reprints and a Master of Science thesis that review the progress made by the CVTS between October 1, 1992 and February 1, 1994. During this period CVTS staff focused on several topics that have direct relevance to volcanic hazards related to the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. These topics include: (1) polygenetic/polycyclic volcanism in Crater Flat, Nevada; (2) the role of the mantle during crustal extension; (3) the detailed geology of Crater Flat, Nevada; (4) Pliocene volcanoes in the Reveille Range, south-central Nevada; (5) estimating the probability of disruption of the proposed repository by volcanic eruptions. This topic is being studied by Dr. C.H. Ho at UNLV. The report contains copies of these individual papers as they were presented in various conference proceedings

  3. Satellite-based detection of volcanic sulphur dioxide from recent eruptions in Central and South America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Loyola

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions can emit large amounts of rock fragments and fine particles (ash into the atmosphere, as well as several gases, including sulphur dioxide (SO2. These ejecta and emissions are a major natural hazard, not only to the local population, but also to the infrastructure in the vicinity of volcanoes and to aviation. Here, we describe a methodology to retrieve quantitative information about volcanic SO2 plumes from satellite-borne measurements in the UV/Visible spectral range. The combination of a satellite-based SO2 detection scheme and a state-of-the-art 3D trajectory model enables us to confirm the volcanic origin of trace gas signals and to estimate the plume height and the effective emission height. This is demonstrated by case-studies for four selected volcanic eruptions in South and Central America, using the GOME, SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 instruments.

  4. Volcanic eruptions and solar activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1989-01-01

    The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

  5. The Lathrop Wells volcanic center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.; Morley, R.

    1992-01-01

    The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is located 20 km south of the potential Yucca Mountain site, at the south end of the Yucca Mountain range. This paper discusses a detailed Study Plan which was prepared describing planned geochronology and field studies to assess the chronology of the Lathrop Wells volcanic center and other Quaternary volcanic centers in the region. A paper was published discussing the geomorphic and soil evidence for a late Pleistocene or Holoceno age for the main cone of the center. The purpose of this paper was to expose the ideas concerning the age of the Lathrop Wells center to scientific scrutiny. Additionally, field evidence was described suggesting the Lathrop Wells center may have formed from multiple eruptive events with significant intervals of no activity between events. This interpretation breaks with established convention in the volcanological literature that small volume basalt centers are monogenetic

  6. Hazard Map of the Poás Volcano

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Barrantes Castillo

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Poás volcano presents a series of hazards to the lives and activities of the communities in its surroundings; these hazards include ash fall, volcanic gases, ballistic projection, pyroclastic flows, lahars and lava flows. In the study described in this article, risks were zoned and integrated to form combined hazard maps for later use in territorial planning processes. With respect to methodology, the study was based on a heuristic approximation, which was supported with cartographic, geomorphological, and historical impact criteria to achieve a suitable product in terms of scale and ease of interpretation. These maps present greater detail and integration than other works and cartographies of volcanic hazards in Costa Rica.

  7. Holocene volcanism of the upper McKenzie River catchment, central Oregon Cascades, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, Natalia I.; Conrey, Richard M.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Champion, Duane E.; Amidon, William H.

    2016-01-01

    To assess the complexity of eruptive activity within mafic volcanic fields, we present a detailed geologic investigation of Holocene volcanism in the upper McKenzie River catchment in the central Oregon Cascades, United States. We focus on the Sand Mountain volcanic field, which covers 76 km2 and consists of 23 vents, associated tephra deposits, and lava fields. We find that the Sand Mountain volcanic field was active for a few decades around 3 ka and involved at least 13 eruptive units. Despite the small total volume erupted (∼1 km3 dense rock equivalent [DRE]), Sand Mountain volcanic field lava geochemistry indicates that erupted magmas were derived from at least two, and likely three, different magma sources. Single units erupted from one or more vents, and field data provide evidence of both vent migration and reoccupation. Overall, our study shows that mafic volcanism was clustered in space and time, involved both explosive and effusive behavior, and tapped several magma sources. These observations provide important insights on possible future hazards from mafic volcanism in the central Oregon Cascades.

  8. Microprocessor hardware reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, R I

    1982-01-01

    Microprocessor-based technology has had an impact in nearly every area of industrial electronics and many applications have important safety implications. Microprocessors are being used for the monitoring and control of hazardous processes in the chemical, oil and power generation industries, for the control and instrumentation of aircraft and other transport systems and for the control of industrial machinery. Even in the field of nuclear reactor protection, where designers are particularly conservative, microprocessors are used to implement certain safety functions and may play increasingly important roles in protection systems in the future. Where microprocessors are simply replacing conventional hard-wired control and instrumentation systems no new hazards are created by their use. In the field of robotics, however, the microprocessor has opened up a totally new technology and with it has created possible new and as yet unknown hazards. The paper discusses some of the design and manufacturing techniques which may be used to enhance the reliability of microprocessor based systems and examines the available reliability data on lsi/vlsi microcircuits. 12 references.

  9. Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G.C.

    2008-01-01

    More than 600 000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano, Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards. Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparison with volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities. ?? 2008.

  10. Probabilistic Hazard Estimation at a Densely Urbanised Area: the Neaples Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Natale, G.; Mastrolorenzo, G.; Panizza, A.; Pappalardo, L.; Claudia, T.

    2005-12-01

    The Neaples volcanic area (Southern Italy), including Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei caldera and Ischia island, is the highest risk one in the World, where more than 2 million people live within about 10 km from an active volcanic vent. Such an extreme risk calls for accurate methodologies aimed to quantify it, in a probabilistic way, considering all the available volcanological information as well as modelling results. In fact, simple hazard maps based on the observation of deposits from past eruptions have the major problem that eruptive history generally samples a very limited number of possible outcomes, thus resulting almost meaningless to get the event probability in the area. This work describes a methodology making the best use (from a Bayesian point of view) of volcanological data and modelling results, to compute probabilistic hazard maps from multi-vent explosive eruptions. The method, which follows an approach recently developed by the same authors for pyroclastic flows hazard, has been here improved and extended to compute also fall-out hazard. The application of the method to the Neapolitan volcanic area, including the densely populated city of Naples, allows, for the first time, to get a global picture of the areal distribution for the main hazards from multi-vent explosive eruptions. From a joint consideration of the hazard contributions from all the three volcanic areas, new insight on the volcanic hazard distribution emerges, which will have strong implications for urban and emergency planning in the area.

  11. Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Picard, R.; Valentine, G.; Perry, F.V.

    1992-01-01

    An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km 2 area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10 -8 to 10 -10 yr -1 2 . The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site

  12. Tsunami hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-15

    Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on 11 March, 2011 has led the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a serious accident, which highlighted a variety of technical issues such as a very low design tsunami height and insufficient preparations in case a tsunami exceeding the design tsunami height. Lessons such as to take measures to be able to maintain the important safety features of the facility for tsunamis exceeding design height and to implement risk management utilizing Probabilistic Safety Assessment are shown. In order to implement the safety assessment on nuclear power plants across Japan accordingly to the back-fit rule, Nuclear Regulatory Commission will promulgate/execute the New Safety Design Criteria in July 2013. JNES has positioned the 'enhancement of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment' as highest priority issue and implemented in order to support technically the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in formulating the new Safety Design Criteria. Findings of the research had reflected in the 'Technical Review Guidelines for Assessing Design Tsunami Height based on tsunami hazards'. (author)

  13. Tsunami hazard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2013-01-01

    Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami on 11 March, 2011 has led the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a serious accident, which highlighted a variety of technical issues such as a very low design tsunami height and insufficient preparations in case a tsunami exceeding the design tsunami height. Lessons such as to take measures to be able to maintain the important safety features of the facility for tsunamis exceeding design height and to implement risk management utilizing Probabilistic Safety Assessment are shown. In order to implement the safety assessment on nuclear power plants across Japan accordingly to the back-fit rule, Nuclear Regulatory Commission will promulgate/execute the New Safety Design Criteria in July 2013. JNES has positioned the 'enhancement of probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment' as highest priority issue and implemented in order to support technically the Nuclear Regulatory Authority in formulating the new Safety Design Criteria. Findings of the research had reflected in the 'Technical Review Guidelines for Assessing Design Tsunami Height based on tsunami hazards'. (author)

  14. The Volcanism Ontology (VO): a model of the volcanic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myer, J.; Babaie, H. A.

    2017-12-01

    We have modeled a part of the complex material and process entities and properties of the volcanic system in the Volcanism Ontology (VO) applying several top-level ontologies such as Basic Formal Ontology (BFO), SWEET, and Ontology of Physics for Biology (OPB) within a single framework. The continuant concepts in BFO describe features with instances that persist as wholes through time and have qualities (attributes) that may change (e.g., state, composition, and location). In VO, the continuants include lava, volcanic rock, and volcano. The occurrent concepts in BFO include processes, their temporal boundaries, and the spatio-temporal regions within which they occur. In VO, these include eruption (process), the onset of pyroclastic flow (temporal boundary), and the space and time span of the crystallization of lava in a lava tube (spatio-temporal region). These processes can be of physical (e.g., debris flow, crystallization, injection), atmospheric (e.g., vapor emission, ash particles blocking solar radiation), hydrological (e.g., diffusion of water vapor, hot spring), thermal (e.g., cooling of lava) and other types. The properties (predicates) relate continuants to other continuants, occurrents to continuants, and occurrents to occurrents. The ontology also models other concepts such as laboratory and field procedures by volcanologists, sampling by sensors, and the type of instruments applied in monitoring volcanic activity. When deployed on the web, VO will be used to explicitly and formally annotate data and information collected by volcanologists based on domain knowledge. This will enable the integration of global volcanic data and improve the interoperability of software that deal with such data.

  15. Reliability Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Lazzaroni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

  16. Reliability training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

    1992-01-01

    Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

  17. Candidate constructional volcanic edifices on Mercury

    OpenAIRE

    Wright, J.; Rothery, D. A.; Balme, M. R.; Conway, S. J.

    2018-01-01

    [Introduction] Studies using MESSENGER data suggest that Mercury’s crust is predominantly a product of effusive volcanism that occurred in the first billion years following the planet’s formation. Despite this planet-wide effusive volcanism, no constructional volcanic edifices, characterized by a topographic rise, have hitherto been robustly identified on Mercury, whereas constructional volcanoes are common on other planetary bodies in the solar system with volcanic histories. Here, we descri...

  18. SYSTHESIS OF VOLCANISM STUDIES FOR THE YUCCA MOUNTAIN SITE CHARACTERIZATION PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perry, F. V.; Crowe, G. A.; Valentine, G. A.; Bowker, L. M.

    1997-09-23

    This report synthesizes the results of volcanism studies conducted by scientists at the Los Alamos National Laboratory and collaborating institutions on behalf of the Department of Energy's Yucca Mountain Project. Chapter 1 introduces the volcanism issue for the Yucca Mountain site and provides the reader with an overview of the organization, content, and significant conclusions of this report. The hazard of future basaltic volcanism is the primary topic of concern including both events that intersect a potential repository and events that occur near or within the waste isolation system of a repository. Future volcanic events cannot be predicted with certainty but instead are estimated using formal methods of probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA). Chapter 2 describes the volcanic history of the Yucca Mountain region (YMR) and emphasizes the Pliocene and Quaternary volcanic record, the interval of primary concern for volcanic risk assessment. The distribution, eruptive history, and geochronology of Plio-Quaternary basalt centers are described by individual center emphasizing the younger postcaldera basalt (<5 Ma). The Lathrop Wells volcanic center is described in detail because it is the youngest basalt center in the YMR. The age of the Lathrop Wells center is now confidently determined to be about 75 thousand years old. Chapter 3 describes the tectonic setting of the YMR and presents and assesses the significance of multiple alternative tectonic models. The distribution of Pliocene and Quaternary basaltic volcanic centers is evaluated with respect to tectonic models for detachment, caldera, regional and local rifting, and the Walker Lane structural zone. Geophysical data are described for the YMR and are used as an aid to understand the distribution of past basaltic volcanic centers and possible future magmatic processes. Chapter 4 discusses the petrologic and geochemical features of basaltic volcanism in the YMR, the southern Great Basin and the

  19. Combination of geophysical prospecting techniques into areas of high protection value: Identification of shallow volcanic structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Ortiz, David; Montesinos, Fuensanta G.; Martín-Crespo, Tomás; Solla, Mercedes; Arnoso, José; Vélez, Emilio

    2014-10-01

    Timanfaya National Park is a volcanic area located in the southwest of Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands, Spain). Several lava tubes have been found in the lava flows but many others remain unknown. Its location and identification are important to mitigate collapse hazards in this touristic area. We present a new study about the location of recent lava tubes by the analysis and joint interpretation of ground penetrating radar (GPR), microgravity and electromagnetic induction (EMI) data along the same profile over an area not previously surveyed. GPR data display a complex pattern of reflections up to ~ 10 m depth. The strongest hyperbolic reflections can be grouped in four different areas. Visual inspections carried out in the field allow confirming the occurrence of lava tubes at two of them. These reflections have been interpreted as the effect of the roof and bottom interfaces of several lava tubes. The microgravity survey defines a wide gravity low with several over-imposed minor highs and lows. Using the GPR data, a 2.5D gravity model has been obtained revealing four lava tubes. EMI data have been used to obtain an inverted resistivity model that displays four high resistivity areas that closely match the locations of the lava tubes derived from the previous methods. This resistivity model exhibits the lower resolution although reaches a deeper investigation depth (~ 20 m). The comparison of the results has revealed that joint interpretation of GPR, microgravity and EMI methods provides reliable models useful for the detection of unknown shallow lava tubes.

  20. Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.

    1979-01-01

    Three basic topics are addressed for the disruptive event analysis: first, the range of disruptive consequences of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity; second, the possible reduction of the risk of disruption by volcanic activity through selective siting of a repository; and third, the quantification of the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity

  1. Electrostatic hazards

    CERN Document Server

    Luttgens, Günter; Luttgens, Gnter; Luttgens, G Nter

    1997-01-01

    In the US, UK and Europe there is in excess of one notifiable dust or electrostatic explosion every day of the year. This clearly makes the hazards associated with the handling of materials subject to either cause or react to electrostatic discharge of vital importance to anyone associated with their handling or industrial bulk use. This book provides a comprehensive guide to the dangers of static electricity and how to avoid them. It will prove invaluable to safety managers and professionals, as well as all personnel involved in the activities concerned, in the chemical, agricultural, pharmaceutical and petrochemical process industries. The book makes extended use of case studies to illustrate the principles being expounded, thereby making it far more open, accessible and attractive to the practitioner in industry than the highly theoretical texts which are also available. The authors have many years' experience in the area behind them, including the professional teaching of the content provided here. Günte...

  2. Human hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delpla, M.; Vignes, S.; Wolber, G.

    1976-01-01

    Among health hazards from ionizing radiations, a distinction is made of observed, likely and theoretical risks. Theoretical risks, derived from extrapolation of observations on sublethal exposures to low doses may frighten. However, they have nothing in common with reality as shown for instance, by the study of carcinogenesis risks at Nagasaki. By extrapolation to low doses, theoretical mutation risks are derived by geneticians from the observation of some characters especially deleterious in the progeny of parents exposed to sublethal doses. One cannot agree when by calculation they express a population exposure by a shift of its genetic balance with an increase of the proportion of disabled individuals. As a matter of fact, experimental exposure of successive generations of laboratory animals shows no accumulation of deleterious genes, sublethal doses excepted. Large nuclear plants should not be overwhelmed by horrible charges on sanitary grounds, whereas small sources have but too often shown they may originate mortal risks [fr

  3. San Miguel Volcanic Seismic and Structure in Central America: Insight into the Physical Processes of Volcanoes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patlan, E.; Velasco, A.; Konter, J. G.

    2010-12-01

    The San Miguel volcano lies near the city of San Miguel, El Salvador (13.43N and - 88.26W). San Miguel volcano, an active stratovolcano, presents a significant natural hazard for the city of San Miguel. In general, the internal state and activity of volcanoes remains an important component to understanding volcanic hazard. The main technology for addressing volcanic hazards and processes is through the analysis of data collected from the deployment of seismic sensors that record ground motion. Six UTEP seismic stations were deployed around San Miguel volcano from 2007-2008 to define the magma chamber and assess the seismic and volcanic hazard. We utilize these data to develop images of the earth structure beneath the volcano, studying the volcanic processes by identifying different sources, and investigating the role of earthquakes and faults in controlling the volcanic processes. We initially locate events using automated routines and focus on analyzing local events. We then relocate each seismic event by hand-picking P-wave arrivals, and later refine these picks using waveform cross correlation. Using a double difference earthquake location algorithm (HypoDD), we identify a set of earthquakes that vertically align beneath the edifice of the volcano, suggesting that we have identified a magma conduit feeding the volcano. We also apply a double-difference earthquake tomography approach (tomoDD) to investigate the volcano’s plumbing system. Our preliminary results show the extent of the magma chamber that also aligns with some horizontal seismicity. Overall, this volcano is very active and presents a significant hazard to the region.

  4. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  5. Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

    2013-03-01

    The Campi Flegrei which includes part of the city of Naples, is an active volcanic system; its last eruption occurred in 1538 AD. More recently two significant crises occurred between 1969 and 72 and 1982-84 and were accompanied by ground movements (bradyseism) and seismic activity, forcing people of the town of Pozzuoli to be evacuated. Since 1984 development of a volcanic emergency plan has been underway. In 2000 Civil Protection published a risk map which defined the Red Zone, an area highly at risk from pyroclastic flows, which would need to be evacuated before an eruption. The first study to evaluate the volcanic risk perceptions of the people living within the Campi Flegrei area was completed in spring 2006, resulting in the largest sample ever studied on this topic except for one on Vesuvio area residents by Barberi et al. (2008). A 46 item questionnaire was distributed to 2000 of the approximately 300,000 residents of the Campi Flegrei Red Zone, which includes three towns and four neighborhoods within the city of Naples. A total of 1161 questionnaires were returned, for an overall response rate of 58%. Surveys were distributed to junior high and high school students, as well as to adult members of the general population. Results indicated that unlike issues such as crime, traffic, trash, and unemployment, volcanic hazards are not spontaneously mentioned as a major problem facing their community. However, when asked specific questions about volcanic risks, respondents believe that an eruption is likely and could have serious consequences for themselves and their communities and they are quite worried about the threat. Considering the events of 1969-72 and 1982-84, it was not surprising that respondents indicated earthquakes and ground deformations as more serious threats than eruptive phenomena. Of significant importance is that only 17% of the sample knows about the existence of the Emergency Plan, announced in 2001, and 65% said that they have not received

  6. A Volcanic Hydrogen Habitable Zone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kaltenegger, Lisa

    2017-01-01

    The classical habitable zone (HZ) is the circular region around a star in which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. The outer edge of the traditional N_2–CO_2–H_2O HZ extends out to nearly ∼1.7 au in our solar system, beyond which condensation and scattering by CO_2 outstrips its greenhouse capacity. Here, we show that volcanic outgassing of atmospheric H_2 can extend the outer edge of the HZ to ∼2.4 au in our solar system. This wider volcanic-hydrogen HZ (N_2–CO_2–H_2O–H_2) can be sustained as long as volcanic H_2 output offsets its escape from the top of the atmosphere. We use a single-column radiative-convective climate model to compute the HZ limits of this volcanic hydrogen HZ for hydrogen concentrations between 1% and 50%, assuming diffusion-limited atmospheric escape. At a hydrogen concentration of 50%, the effective stellar flux required to support the outer edge decreases by ∼35%–60% for M–A stars. The corresponding orbital distances increase by ∼30%–60%. The inner edge of this HZ only moves out ∼0.1%–4% relative to the classical HZ because H_2 warming is reduced in dense H_2O atmospheres. The atmospheric scale heights of such volcanic H_2 atmospheres near the outer edge of the HZ also increase, facilitating remote detection of atmospheric signatures.

  7. A Volcanic Hydrogen Habitable Zone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez, Ramses M.; Kaltenegger, Lisa, E-mail: rmr277@cornell.edu [Carl Sagan Institute, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY (United States)

    2017-03-01

    The classical habitable zone (HZ) is the circular region around a star in which liquid water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. The outer edge of the traditional N{sub 2}–CO{sub 2}–H{sub 2}O HZ extends out to nearly ∼1.7 au in our solar system, beyond which condensation and scattering by CO{sub 2} outstrips its greenhouse capacity. Here, we show that volcanic outgassing of atmospheric H{sub 2} can extend the outer edge of the HZ to ∼2.4 au in our solar system. This wider volcanic-hydrogen HZ (N{sub 2}–CO{sub 2}–H{sub 2}O–H{sub 2}) can be sustained as long as volcanic H{sub 2} output offsets its escape from the top of the atmosphere. We use a single-column radiative-convective climate model to compute the HZ limits of this volcanic hydrogen HZ for hydrogen concentrations between 1% and 50%, assuming diffusion-limited atmospheric escape. At a hydrogen concentration of 50%, the effective stellar flux required to support the outer edge decreases by ∼35%–60% for M–A stars. The corresponding orbital distances increase by ∼30%–60%. The inner edge of this HZ only moves out ∼0.1%–4% relative to the classical HZ because H{sub 2} warming is reduced in dense H{sub 2}O atmospheres. The atmospheric scale heights of such volcanic H{sub 2} atmospheres near the outer edge of the HZ also increase, facilitating remote detection of atmospheric signatures.

  8. Systems reliability/structural reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)

  9. Volcanic Eruption: Students Develop a Contingency Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meisinger, Philipp; Wittlich, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Dangerous, loud, sensational, exciting - natural hazards have what it takes to get students attention around the globe. Arising interest is the first step to develop an intrinsic motivation to learn about the matter and endure the hardships that students might discover along the way of the unit. Natural hazards thereby establish a close-knit connection between physical and anthropological geography through analyzing the hazardous event and its consequences for the people living in the affected area. Following a general principle of didactics we start searching right on our doorsteps to offer students the possibility to gain knowledge on the familiar and later transfer it to the unknown example. Even in Southwest Germany - a region that is rather known for its wine than its volcanic activity - we can find a potentially hazardous region. The "Laacher See" volcano (a caldera lake) in northern Rhineland-Palatinate is according to Prof. H.U. Schminke a "potentially active volcano" . Its activity can be proven by seismic activities, or experienced when visiting the lake's southeastern shore, where carbondioxid and sulphur gases from the underlying magma chamber still bubble up. The Laacher See is part of a range of volcanoes (classified from 'potentially active' to 'no longer active') of the East Eifel Volcanic Field. Precariously the Laacher See is located closely to the densely populated agglomerations of Cologne (NE, distance: 45 km) and the former capital Bonn (NE: 35km), as well as Koblenz (E: 24km) and the Rhine river. Apart from that, the towns of Andernach (E: 8km ± 30 000 inhabitants) and Mayen (SW: 11km ±20 000 inhabitants) and many smaller towns and villages are nearby due to economic reasons. The number of people affected by a possible eruption easily exceeds two million people considering the range as prime measurement. The underlying danger, as projected in a simulation presented by Prof. Schminke, is a lava stream running down the Brohltal valley

  10. Safety and reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    This report contains the papers delivered at the course on safety and reliability assessment held at the CSIR Conference Centre, Scientia, Pretoria. The following topics were discussed: safety standards; licensing; biological effects of radiation; what is a PWR; safety principles in the design of a nuclear reactor; radio-release analysis; quality assurance; the staffing, organisation and training for a nuclear power plant project; event trees, fault trees and probability; Automatic Protective Systems; sources of failure-rate data; interpretation of failure data; synthesis and reliability; quantification of human error in man-machine systems; dispersion of noxious substances through the atmosphere; criticality aspects of enrichment and recovery plants; and risk and hazard analysis. Extensive examples are given as well as case studies

  11. A GIS-based methodology for the estimation of potential volcanic damage and its application to Tenerife Island, Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scaini, C.; Felpeto, A.; Martí, J.; Carniel, R.

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents a GIS-based methodology to estimate damages produced by volcanic eruptions. The methodology is constituted by four parts: definition and simulation of eruptive scenarios, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment and estimation of expected damages. Multi-hazard eruptive scenarios are defined for the Teide-Pico Viejo active volcanic complex, and simulated through the VORIS tool. The exposure analysis identifies the elements exposed to the hazard at stake and focuses on the relevant assets for the study area. The vulnerability analysis is based on previous studies on the built environment and complemented with the analysis of transportation and urban infrastructures. Damage assessment is performed associating a qualitative damage rating to each combination of hazard and vulnerability. This operation consists in a GIS-based overlap, performed for each hazardous phenomenon considered and for each element. The methodology is then automated into a GIS-based tool using an ArcGIS® program. Given the eruptive scenarios and the characteristics of the exposed elements, the tool produces expected damage maps. The tool is applied to the Icod Valley (North of Tenerife Island) which is likely to be affected by volcanic phenomena in case of eruption from both the Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex and North-West basaltic rift. Results are thematic maps of vulnerability and damage that can be displayed at different levels of detail, depending on the user preferences. The aim of the tool is to facilitate territorial planning and risk management in active volcanic areas.

  12. Volcanology and hazards of phreatomagmatic basaltic eruptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmith, Johanne

    Iceland is one of the most active terrestrial volcanic regions on Earth with an average of more than 20 eruptions per century. Around 80% of all events are tephra generating explosive eruptions, but less than 10 % of all known tephra layers have been mapped. Recent hazard assessment models show...... that the two key parameters for hazard assessment modeling are total grain size distribution (TGSD) and eruptive style. These two parameters have been determined for even fewer eruptive events in Iceland. One of the most hazardous volcanoes in Iceland is Katla and no data set of TGSD or other eruptive...... parameters exist. Katla has not erupted for 99 years, but at least 2 of the 20 eruptions since the settlement of Iceland in 871 have reached Northern Europe as visible tephra fall. These eruptions occurred in 1755 and 1625 and remain enigmatic both in terms of actual size and eruption dynamics. This work...

  13. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubb, H.

    1992-01-01

    This book resulted from the activity of Task Force 4.2 - 'Human Reliability'. This group was established on February 27th, 1986, at the plenary meeting of the Technical Reliability Committee of VDI, within the framework of the joint committee of VDI on industrial systems technology - GIS. It is composed of representatives of industry, representatives of research institutes, of technical control boards and universities, whose job it is to study how man fits into the technical side of the world of work and to optimize this interaction. In a total of 17 sessions, information from the part of ergonomy dealing with human reliability in using technical systems at work was exchanged, and different methods for its evaluation were examined and analyzed. The outcome of this work was systematized and compiled in this book. (orig.) [de

  14. Microelectronics Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-17

    inverters  connected in a chain. ................................................. 5  Figure 3  Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental  reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the  lifetime  reliability of advanced devices,  circuits and...or  FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device  lifetime  was found and thus the  reliability  that  can  be  conveniently

  15. Combining criteria for delineating lahar- and flash-flood-prone hazard and risk zones for the city of Arequipa, Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Thouret , Jean-Claude; Enjolras , G.; Martelli , K.; Santoni , O.; Luque , A.; Nagata , M.; Arguedas , A.; Macedo , L.

    2013-01-01

    Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru, is exposed to many natural hazards, most notably earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, lahars (volcanic debris flows), and flash floods. Of these, lahars and flash floods, triggered by occasional torrential rainfall, pose the most frequently occurring hazards that can affect the city and its environs, in particular the areas containing low-income neighbourhoods. This paper presents and discusses criteria for delineating areas prone to flash fl...

  16. Translating Volcano Hazards Research in the Cascades Into Community Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewert, J. W.; Driedger, C. L.

    2015-12-01

    Research by the science community into volcanic histories and physical processes at Cascade volcanoes in the states of Washington, Oregon, and California has been ongoing for over a century. Eruptions in the 20th century at Lassen Peak and Mount St. Helen demonstrated the active nature of Cascade volcanoes; the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was a defining moment in modern volcanology. The first modern volcano hazards assessments were produced by the USGS for some Cascade volcanoes in the 1960s. A rich scientific literature exists, much of which addresses hazards at these active volcanoes. That said community awareness, planning, and preparation for eruptions generally do not occur as a result of a hazard analyses published in scientific papers, but by direct communication with scientists. Relative to other natural hazards, volcanic eruptions (or large earthquakes, or tsunami) are outside common experience, and the public and many public officials are often surprised to learn of the impacts volcanic eruptions could have on their communities. In the 1980s, the USGS recognized that effective hazard communication and preparedness is a multi-faceted, long-term undertaking and began working with federal, state, and local stakeholders to build awareness and foster community action about volcano hazards. Activities included forming volcano-specific workgroups to develop coordination plans for volcano emergencies; a concerted public outreach campaign; curriculum development and teacher training; technical training for emergency managers and first responders; and development of hazard information that is accessible to non-specialists. Outcomes include broader ownership of volcano hazards as evidenced by bi-national exchanges of emergency managers, community planners, and first responders; development by stakeholders of websites focused on volcano hazards mitigation; and execution of table-top and functional exercises, including evacuation drills by local communities.

  17. Geo-risk in Central Africa: integrating multi-hazards and vulnerability to support risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kervyn, Francois; Nicolas, d'Oreye; Haventith, Hans-Balder; Kervyn, Matthieu; Caroline, Michellier; Trefon, Theodore; Wolff, Eleonore

    2013-04-01

    In some places, geo-hazards are a major concern for population, the assets, and the economy. This is especially the case in the East African Rift (EAR), where high volcanic and tectonic activities are sometimes coupled with geopolitical issues and dense population as in the Kivu rift area. That area is one of the most densely populated regions of Central Africa and is affected by decades of political instability and subsequent humanitarian crisis. In that region, geo-hazards are poorly assessed despite the numerous recent and historical events. Moreover, the relief of the rift also corresponds in this area to the main political boundaries, which complicates the coordination and the management of geo-hazards monitoring networks and related mitigation measures. Based on the experience acquired through several projects focused on hazard assessment and reinforcement of local monitoring capacity, the GeoRisCA project is addressing the assessment of the global risk related to the major geohazards that affect the region. Taking into account the identified factors, GeoRisCA's objective is to assess the risk from multi geohazards in a region which is subject to many (possibly combined) disasters every year and which could undergo a large impact disaster in the coming years. At regional scale, the high seismicity and the volcanic activity are the most important concerns. Possible eruptions of lethal gas in certain area around Goma, and the large number of reported and likely future mass movements as well as site-specific seismic amplification effects increase the danger at local scale. As both human lives and specific ecosystems are under threat, comprehensive methodologies are required to reliably assess multi geohazards over both short and long terms and to clearly outline and map related risk. These tools are needed by local and regional authorities as well as local and international stakeholders in management and mitigation processes. Developed methodologies in Geo

  18. Abstracts for the October 2012 meeting on Volcanism in the American Southwest, Flagstaff, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowenstern, Jacob B.

    2013-01-01

    Though volcanic eruptions are comparatively rare in the American Southwest, the States of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah host Holocene volcanic eruption deposits and are vulnerable to future volcanic activity. Compared with other parts of the western United States, comparatively little research has been focused on this area, and eruption probabilities are poorly constrained. Monitoring infrastructure consists of a variety of local seismic networks, and ”backbone“ geodetic networks with little integration. Emergency response planning for volcanic unrest has received little attention by either Federal or State agencies. On October 18–20, 2012, 90 people met at the U.S. Geological Survey campus in Flagstaff, Arizona, providing an opportunity for volcanologists, land managers, and emergency responders to meet, converse, and begin to plan protocols for any future activity. Geologists contributed data on recent findings of eruptive ages, eruption probabilities, and hazards extents (plume heights, ash dispersal). Geophysicists discussed evidence for magma intrusions from seismic, geodetic, and other geophysical techniques. Network operators publicized their recent work and the relevance of their equipment to volcanic regions. Land managers and emergency responders shared their experiences with emergency planning for earthquakes. The meeting was organized out of the recognition that little attention had been paid to planning for or mitigation of volcanic hazards in the American Southwest. Moreover, few geological meetings have hosted a session specifically devoted to this topic. This volume represents one official outcome of the meeting—a collection of abstracts related to talks and poster presentations shared during the first two days of the meeting. In addition, this report includes the meeting agenda as a record of the proceedings. One additional intended outcome will be greater discussion and coordination among emergency responders, geologists

  19. Rapid laccolith intrusion driven by explosive volcanic eruption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Jonathan M; Cordonnier, Benoit; Schipper, C Ian; Tuffen, Hugh; Baumann, Tobias S; Feisel, Yves

    2016-11-23

    Magmatic intrusions and volcanic eruptions are intimately related phenomena. Shallow magma intrusion builds subsurface reservoirs that are drained by volcanic eruptions. Thus, the long-held view is that intrusions must precede and feed eruptions. Here we show that explosive eruptions can also cause magma intrusion. We provide an account of a rapidly emplaced laccolith during the 2011 rhyolite eruption of Cordón Caulle, Chile. Remote sensing indicates that an intrusion began after eruption onset and caused severe (>200 m) uplift over 1 month. Digital terrain models resolve a laccolith-shaped body ∼0.8 km 3 . Deformation and conduit flow models indicate laccolith depths of only ∼20-200 m and overpressures (∼1-10 MPa) that likely stemmed from conduit blockage. Our results show that explosive eruptions may rapidly force significant quantities of magma in the crust to build laccoliths. These iconic intrusions can thus be interpreted as eruptive features that pose unique and previously unrecognized volcanic hazards.

  20. Modeling of hydrothermal circulation applied to active volcanic areas. The case of Vulcano (Italy)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Todesco, M. [Dip. Scienze della Terra, Posa (Italy)

    1995-03-01

    Modeling of fluid and heat flows through porous media has been diffusely applied up to date to the study of geothermal reservoirs. Much less has been done to apply the same methodology to the study of active volcanoes and of the associated volcanic hazard. Hydrothermal systems provide direct information on dormant eruptive centers and significant insights on their state of activity and current evolution. For this reason, the evaluation of volcanic hazard is also based on monitoring of hydrothermal activity. Such monitoring, however, provides measurements of surface parameters, such as fluid temperature or composition, that often are only representative of the shallower portion of the system. The interpretation of these data in terms of global functioning of the hydrothermal circulation can therefore be highly misleading. Numerical modeling of hydrothermal activity provides a physical approach to the description of fluid circulation and can contribute to its understanding and to the interpretation of monitoring data. In this work, the TOUGH2 simulator has been applied to study the hydrothermal activity at Vulcano (Italy). Simulations involved an axisymmetric domain heated from below, and focused on the effects of permeability distribution and carbon dioxide. Results are consistent with the present knowledge of the volcanic system and suggest that permeability distribution plays a major role in the evolution of fluid circulation. This parameter should be considered in the interpretation of monitoring data and in the evaluation of volcanic hazard at Vulcano.

  1. Can rain cause volcanic eruptions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Larry G.

    1993-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions are renowned for their violence and destructive power. This power comes ultimately from the heat and pressure of molten rock and its contained gases. Therefore we rarely consider the possibility that meteoric phenomena, like rainfall, could promote or inhibit their occurrence. Yet from time to time observers have suggested that weather may affect volcanic activity. In the late 1800's, for example, one of the first geologists to visit the island of Hawaii, J.D. Dana, speculated that rainfall influenced the occurrence of eruptions there. In the early 1900's, volcanologists suggested that some eruptions from Mount Lassen, Calif., were caused by the infiltration of snowmelt into the volcano's hot summit. Most such associations have not been provable because of lack of information; others have been dismissed after careful evaluation of the evidence.

  2. Automated detection and cataloging of global explosive volcanism using the International Monitoring System infrasound network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matoza, Robin S.; Green, David N.; Le Pichon, Alexis; Shearer, Peter M.; Fee, David; Mialle, Pierrick; Ceranna, Lars

    2017-04-01

    We experiment with a new method to search systematically through multiyear data from the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network to identify explosive volcanic eruption signals originating anywhere on Earth. Detecting, quantifying, and cataloging the global occurrence of explosive volcanism helps toward several goals in Earth sciences and has direct applications in volcanic hazard mitigation. We combine infrasound signal association across multiple stations with source location using a brute-force, grid-search, cross-bearings approach. The algorithm corrects for a background prior rate of coherent unwanted infrasound signals (clutter) in a global grid, without needing to screen array processing detection lists from individual stations prior to association. We develop the algorithm using case studies of explosive eruptions: 2008 Kasatochi, Alaska; 2009 Sarychev Peak, Kurile Islands; and 2010 Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland. We apply the method to global IMS infrasound data from 2005-2010 to construct a preliminary acoustic catalog that emphasizes sustained explosive volcanic activity (long-duration signals or sequences of impulsive transients lasting hours to days). This work represents a step toward the goal of integrating IMS infrasound data products into global volcanic eruption early warning and notification systems. Additionally, a better understanding of volcanic signal detection and location with the IMS helps improve operational event detection, discrimination, and association capabilities.

  3. The Lanzarote Geodynamic Laboratory: new capabilities for monitoring of volcanic activity at Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnoso, J.; Vélez, E. J.; Soler, V.; Montesinos, F. G.; Benavent, M.

    2012-04-01

    manifestations at the surface level, and to compare geodynamic processes associated with an active area of the Earth's crust. In turn, the results obtained can provide new inputs for studying precursor of volcanic activity and also contribute to volcanic hazard mitigation. The LGL aims to be a permanent status of renewal, using new technologies for data recording and real time transmission, as well as for testing new sensors, scientific equipment and observational techniques related to monitoring and observation of volcanic activity. All these capabilities are necessary when high-resolution ground based observations must provide us the basis for studying the sources of volcanic deformation. The laboratory is thus open to support and to enhance the collaboration among scientists, as well as national and international institutions involved in research at active volcanic areas.

  4. Danger, hazard, risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kafka, P.

    1992-01-01

    The real conditions covered by technical safety studies are described better by the term 'risk' instead of such qualitative terms as 'danger' or 'hazard'. 'Risk' incorporates not only the type of damage, the onset of damage, the probability of damage occurring, but also the extent of damage. In reliability and safety engineering, a probabilistic safety analysis is able to describe a plant most comprehensively by these three elements: What can happen? How frequently will it occur? What are the impacts to be taken into account? PSA is meaningful not only when applied to such technical areas in which there is a risk potential; the holistic analytical process optimizes any kind of system and plant in terms of availability and technical safety. (orig.) [de

  5. Volcanic deformation in the Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riddick, S.; Fournier, T.; Pritchard, M.

    2009-05-01

    We present the results from an InSAR survey of volcanic activity in South America. We use data from the Japanese Space Agency's ALOS L-band radar satellite from 2006-2009. The L-band instrument provides better coherence in densely vegetated regions, compared to the shorter wave length C-band data. The survey reveals volcano related deformation in regions, north, central and southern, of the Andes volcanic arc. Since observations are limited to the austral summer, comprehensive coverage of all volcanoes is not possible. Yet, our combined observations reveal volcanic/hydrothermal deformation at Lonquimay, Llaima, Laguna del Maule, and Chaitén volcanoes, extend deformation measurements at Copahue, and illustrate temporal complexity to the previously described deformation at Cerro Hudson and Cordón Caulle. No precursory deformation is apparent before the large Chaitén eruption (VEI_5) of 2 May 2008, (at least before 16 April) suggesting rapid magma movement from depth at this long dormant volcano. Subsidence at Ticsani Volcano occurred coincident with an earthquake swarm in the same region.

  6. Volcanic mercury in Pinus canariensis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, José Antonio; Nanos, Nikos; Miranda, José Carlos; Carbonell, Gregoria; Gil, Luis

    2013-08-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a toxic element that is emitted to the atmosphere by both human activities and natural processes. Volcanic emissions are considered a natural source of mercury in the environment. In some cases, tree ring records taken close to volcanoes and their relation to volcanic activity over time are contradictory. In 1949, the Hoyo Negro volcano (La Palma-Canary Islands) produced significant pyroclastic flows that damaged the nearby stand of Pinus canariensis. Recently, 60 years after the eruption, we assessed mercury concentrations in the stem of a pine which survived volcano formation, located at a distance of 50 m from the crater. We show that Hg content in a wound caused by pyroclastic impacts (22.3 μg kg-1) is an order of magnitude higher than the Hg concentrations measured in the xylem before and after the eruption (2.3 μg kg-1). Thus, mercury emissions originating from the eruption remained only as a mark—in pyroclastic wounds—and can be considered a sporadic and very high mercury input that did not affect the overall Hg input in the xylem. In addition, mercury contents recorded in the phloem (9.5 μg kg-1) and bark (6.0 μg kg-1) suggest that mercury shifts towards non-living tissues of the pine, an aspect that can be related to detoxification in volcanism-adapted species.

  7. Source mechanism of volcanic tremor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferrick, M.G.; Qamar, A.; St. Lawrence, W.F.

    1982-10-10

    Low-frequency (<10 Hz) volcanic earthquakes originate at a wide range of depths and occur before, during, and after magmatic eruptions. The characteristics of these earthquakes suggest that they are not typical tectonic events. Physically analogous processes occur in hydraulic fracturing of rock formations, low-frequency icequakes in temperate glaciers, and autoresonance in hydroelectric power stations. We propose that unsteady fluid flow in volcanic conduits is the common source mechanism of low-frequency volcanic earthquakes (tremor). The fluid dynamic source mechanism explains low-frequency earthquakes of arbitrary duration, magnitude, and depth of origin, as unsteady flow is independent of physical properties of the fluid and conduit. Fluid transients occur in both low-viscosity gases and high-viscosity liquids. A fluid transient analysis can be formulated as generally as is warranted by knowledge of the composition and physical properties of the fluid, material properties, geometry and roughness of the conduit, and boundary conditions. To demonstrate the analytical potential of the fluid dynamic theory, we consider a single-phase fluid, a melt of Mount Hood andesite at 1250/sup 0/C, in which significant pressure and velocity variations occur only in the longitudinal direction. Further simplification of the conservation of mass and momentum equations presents an eigenvalue problem that is solved to determine the natural frequencies and associated damping of flow and pressure oscillations.

  8. Volcanic mercury in Pinus canariensis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Martín, José Antonio; Nanos, Nikos; Miranda, José Carlos; Carbonell, Gregoria; Gil, Luis

    2013-08-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a toxic element that is emitted to the atmosphere by both human activities and natural processes. Volcanic emissions are considered a natural source of mercury in the environment. In some cases, tree ring records taken close to volcanoes and their relation to volcanic activity over time are contradictory. In 1949, the Hoyo Negro volcano (La Palma-Canary Islands) produced significant pyroclastic flows that damaged the nearby stand of Pinus canariensis. Recently, 60 years after the eruption, we assessed mercury concentrations in the stem of a pine which survived volcano formation, located at a distance of 50 m from the crater. We show that Hg content in a wound caused by pyroclastic impacts (22.3 μg kg(-1)) is an order of magnitude higher than the Hg concentrations measured in the xylem before and after the eruption (2.3 μg kg(-1)). Thus, mercury emissions originating from the eruption remained only as a mark-in pyroclastic wounds-and can be considered a sporadic and very high mercury input that did not affect the overall Hg input in the xylem. In addition, mercury contents recorded in the phloem (9.5 μg kg(-1)) and bark (6.0 μg kg(-1)) suggest that mercury shifts towards non-living tissues of the pine, an aspect that can be related to detoxification in volcanism-adapted species.

  9. Systems reliability in high risk situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunns, D.M.

    1974-12-01

    A summary is given of five papers and the discussion of a seminar promoted by the newly-formed National Centre of Systems Reliability. The topics covered include hazard analysis, reliability assessment, and risk assessment in both nuclear and non-nuclear industries. (U.K.)

  10. Auditing hazardous waste incineration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jayanty, R.K.M.; Allen, J.M.; Sokol, C.K.; von Lehmden, D.J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that audit standards consisting of volatile and semivoltile organics have been established by the EPA to be provided to federal, state, and local agencies or their contractors for use in performance audits to assess the accuracy of measurement methods used during hazardous waste trial burns. The volatile organic audit standards currently total 29 gaseous organics in 5, 6, 7, 9, and 18-component mixtures at part-per-billion (ppb) levels (1 to 10 000 ppb) in compressed gas cylinders in a balance gas of nitrogen. The semivoltile organic audit standards currently total six organics which are spiked onto XAD-2 cartridges for auditing analysis procedures. Studies of all organic standards have been performed to determine the stability of the compounds and the feasibility of using them as performance audit materials. Results as of July 1987 indicate that all of the selected organic compounds are adequately stabile for use as reliable audit materials. Performance audits have been conducted with the audit materials to assess the accuracy of the measurement methods. To date, 160 performance audits have been initiated with the ppb-level audit gases. The audit results obtained with audit gases during hazardous waste trial burn tests were generally within ±50% of the audit concentrations. A limited number of audit results have been obtained with spiked XAD-2 cartridges, and the results have generally been within ±35% of the audit concentrations

  11. Disruptive event analysis: volcanism and igneous intrusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.

    1980-08-01

    An evaluation is made of the disruptive effects of volcanic activity with respect to long term isolation of radioactive waste through deep geologic storage. Three major questions are considered. First, what is the range of disruption effects of a radioactive waste repository by volcanic activity. Second, is it possible, by selective siting of a repository, to reduce the risk of disruption by future volcanic activity. And third, can the probability of repository disruption by volcanic activity be quantified. The main variables involved in the evaluation of the consequences of repository disruption by volcanic activity are the geometry of the magma-repository intersection (partly controlled by depth of burial) and the nature of volcanism. Potential radionuclide dispersal by volcanic transport within the biosphere ranges in distance from several kilometers to global. Risk from the most catastrophic types of eruptions can be reduced by careful site selection to maximize lag time prior to the onset of activity. Certain areas or volcanic provinces within the western United States have been sites of significant volcanism and should be avoided as potential sites for a radioactive waste repository. Examples of projection of future sites of active volcanism are discussed for three areas of the western United States. Probability calculations require two types of data: a numerical rate or frequency of volcanic activity and a numerical evaluation of the areal extent of volcanic disruption for a designated region. The former is clearly beyond the current state of art in volcanology. The latter can be approximated with a reasonable degree of satisfaction. In this report, simplified probability calculations are attempted for areas of past volcanic activity

  12. A Proposed Community Network For Monitoring Volcanic Emissions In Saint Lucia, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Robertson, R. E.; Latchman, J. L.; Edwards, S.

    2013-12-01

    Systematic geochemical monitoring of volcanic systems in the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles was initiated by the UWI Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in 2000, as part of its volcanic surveillance programme for the English-speaking islands of the Lesser Antilles. This programme provided the first time-series observations used for the purpose of volcano monitoring in Dominica and Saint Lucia, permitted the characterization of the geothermal fluids associated with them, and established baseline studies for understanding of the hydrothermal systems during periods of quiescence (Joseph et al., 2011; Joseph et al., 2013). As part of efforts to improve and expand the capacity of SRC to provide volcanic surveillance through its geothermal monitoring programme, it is necessary to develop economically sustainable options for the monitoring of volcanic emissions/pollutants. Towards this effort we intend to work in collaboration with local authorities in Saint Lucia, to develop a monitoring network for quantifying the background exposure levels of ambient concentrations of volcanic pollutants, SO2 in air and As in waters (as health significant marker elements in the geothermal emissions) that would serve as a model for the emissions monitoring network for other volcanic islands. This programme would facilitate the building of local capacity and training to monitor the hazardous exposure, through the application and transfer of a regionally available low-cost and low-technology SO2 measurement/detection system in Saint Lucia. Existing monitoring technologies to inform evidence based health practices are too costly for small island Caribbean states, and no government policies or health services measures currently exist to address/mitigate these influences. Gases, aerosols and toxic elements from eruptive and non-eruptive volcanic activity are known to adversely affect human health and the environment (Baxter, 2000; Zhang et al., 2008). Investigations into the

  13. Mapping Intraplate Volcanic Fields: A Case Study from Harrat Rahat, Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downs, D. T.; Stelten, M. E.; Champion, D. E.; Dietterich, H. R.

    2017-12-01

    Continental intraplate mafic volcanoes are typically small-volume (200 volcanic fields proposed to be active worldwide during the Holocene. Their small individual eruption volumes make any hazards low, however their high prevalence offsets this by raising the risk to populations and infrastructure. The western Arabian Plate hosts at least 15 continental, intra-plate volcanic fields that stretch >3,000 km south to north from Yemen to Turkey. In total, these volcanic fields comprise one of the largest alkali basalt volcanic provinces on Earth, covering an area of 180,000 km2. With a total volume of 20,000 km3, Harrat Rahat in western Saudi Arabia is one of the largest of these volcanic fields. Our study focused on mapping the northern third of the Harrat Rahat volcanic field using a multidisciplinary approach. We have discriminated >200 individual eruptive units, mainly basaltic lava flows throughout Harrat Rahat that are distinguished through a combination of field observations, petrography, geochemistry, paleomagnetism, and 40Ar/39Ar radiometric and 36Cl cosmogenic surface-exposure dating. We have compiled these results into a high-resolution geologic map, which provides new information about the timing, compositions, and eruptive processes of Quaternary volcanism in Harrat Rahat. For example, prior mapping and geochronology undertaken during the 1980s suggested that the majority of mafic and silicic volcanics erupted during the Miocene and Pliocene, whereas several of the youngest-appearing lava flows were interpreted to be Neolithic ( 7,000 to 4,500 years BP) to post-Neolithic. New mapping and age-constrained stratigraphic relations indicate that all exposed volcanic units within the northern third of Harrat Rahat erupted during the Pleistocene, with the exception of a single Holocene eruption in 1256 AD. This new multidisciplinary mapping is critical for understanding the overall spatial, temporal, and compositional evolution of Harrat Rahat, timescales of

  14. Vesuvio civil protection exercise MESIMEX: survey on volcanic risk perception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tullio Ricci

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available In October 2006 the European Civil Protection Exercise MESIMEX (Somma Vesuvio Mesimex – Major Emergency SIMulation Exercise on volcanic risk took place at Vesuvio, promoted by Campania Region and coordinated by the Italian Civil Protection Department. The exercise was focused on the preparedness phase for a major volcanic emergency in the area of Vesuvio. An evacuation of a sample of 1800 inhabitants from the Vesuvio Red Zone was also tested during the drill because the emergency plan ensures the complete evacuation of the population from the higher risk zone before the onset of the eruption. During that event a survey on volcanic risk perception was carried out on the evacuated population in order to compare the results with the ones coming from a previous similar survey, using the same questionnaire, carried out on a wider sample of residents in the Vesuvio Red Zone few months before MESIMEX exercise. The aim was to point out any differences in population’s attitude towards volcanic risk after having received detailed information on the emergency plan and on the hazards and risk related to the reactivation of Vesuvio, and experiencing the exercise. 463 questionnaires were distributed to the population evacuated from the 18 municipalities of the Red Zone and participating to the exercise. Main results in comparing data from MESIMEX survey with the Vesuvio previous one, put in evidence how the general level of Vesuvio residents’ trust remains quite low, indicating that a continuous and effective effort has to be done by both scientific community and Civil Protection Department. Particular attention should be paid in education and outreach activities and in involving people in risk mitigation procedures, also through more frequent exercises.

  15. U.S. Geological Survey natural hazards science strategy: promoting the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmes, Robert R.; Jones, Lucile M.; Eidenshink, Jeffery C.; Godt, Jonathan W.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Love, Jeffrey J.; Neal, Christina A.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Plunkett, Michael L.; Weaver, Craig S.; Wein, Anne; Perry, Suzanne C.

    2013-01-01

    The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. USGS scientific research—founded on detailed observations and improved understanding of the responsible physical processes—can help to understand and reduce natural hazard risks and to make and effectively communicate reliable statements about hazard characteristics, such as frequency, magnitude, extent, onset, consequences, and where possible, the time of future events. To accomplish its broad hazard mission, the USGS maintains an expert workforce of scientists and technicians in the earth sciences, hydrology, biology, geography, social and behavioral sciences, and other fields, and engages cooperatively with numerous agencies, research institutions, and organizations in the public and private sectors, across the Nation and around the world. The scientific expertise required to accomplish the USGS mission in natural hazards includes a wide range of disciplines that this report refers to, in aggregate, as hazard science. In October 2010, the Natural Hazards Science Strategy Planning Team (H–SSPT) was charged with developing a long-term (10–year) Science Strategy for the USGS mission in natural hazards. This report fulfills that charge, with a document hereinafter referred to as the Strategy, to provide scientific observations, analyses, and research that are critical for the Nation to become more resilient to natural hazards. Science provides the information that decisionmakers need to determine whether risk management activities are worthwhile. Moreover, as the agency with the perspective of geologic time, the USGS is uniquely positioned to extend the collective experience of society to prepare for events outside current memory. The USGS has critical

  16. QVAST: a new Quantum GIS plugin for estimating volcanic susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Cappello, A.; Martí, J.; Del Negro, C.

    2013-11-01

    One of the most important tasks of modern volcanology is the construction of hazard maps simulating different eruptive scenarios that can be used in risk-based decision making in land-use planning and emergency management. The first step in the quantitative assessment of volcanic hazards is the development of susceptibility maps (i.e., the spatial probability of a future vent opening given the past eruptive activity of a volcano). This challenging issue is generally tackled using probabilistic methods that use the calculation of a kernel function at each data location to estimate probability density functions (PDFs). The smoothness and the modeling ability of the kernel function are controlled by the smoothing parameter, also known as the bandwidth. Here we present a new tool, QVAST, part of the open-source geographic information system Quantum GIS, which is designed to create user-friendly quantitative assessments of volcanic susceptibility. QVAST allows the selection of an appropriate method for evaluating the bandwidth for the kernel function on the basis of the input parameters and the shapefile geometry, and can also evaluate the PDF with the Gaussian kernel. When different input data sets are available for the area, the total susceptibility map is obtained by assigning different weights to each of the PDFs, which are then combined via a weighted summation and modeled in a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The potential of QVAST, developed in a free and user-friendly environment, is here shown through its application in the volcanic fields of Lanzarote (Canary Islands) and La Garrotxa (NE Spain).

  17. Redefining reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, S.L.

    1995-01-01

    Want to buy some reliability? The question would have been unthinkable in some markets served by the natural gas business even a few years ago, but in the new gas marketplace, industrial, commercial and even some residential customers have the opportunity to choose from among an array of options about the kind of natural gas service they need--and are willing to pay for. The complexities of this brave new world of restructuring and competition have sent the industry scrambling to find ways to educate and inform its customers about the increased responsibility they will have in determining the level of gas reliability they choose. This article discusses the new options and the new responsibilities of customers, the needed for continuous education, and MidAmerican Energy Company's experiment in direct marketing of natural gas

  18. Hazard classification methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brereton, S.J.

    1996-01-01

    This document outlines the hazard classification methodology used to determine the hazard classification of the NIF LTAB, OAB, and the support facilities on the basis of radionuclides and chemicals. The hazard classification determines the safety analysis requirements for a facility

  19. Remote Sensing and GIS as Tools for Identifying Risk for Phreatomagmatic Eruptions in the Bishoftu Volcanic Field, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennington, H. G.; Graettinger, A.

    2017-12-01

    Bishoftu is a fast-growing town in the Oromia region of Ethiopia, located 47 km southeast of the nation's capital, Addis Ababa. It is situated atop a monogenetic basaltic volcanic field, called the Bishoftu Volcanic Field (BVF), which is composed of maar craters, scoria cones, lava flows, and rhyolite domes. Although not well dated, the morphology and archeological evidence have been used to infer a Holocene age, indicating that the community is exposed to continued volcanic risk. The presence of phreatomagmatic constructs in particular indicates that the hazards are not only vent-localized, but may have far reaching impacts. Hazard mapping is an essential tool for evaluating and communicating risks. This study presents the results of GIS analyses of proximal and distal syn-eruptive hazards associated with phreatomagmatic eruptions in the BVF. A digitized infrastructure map based on a SPOT 6 satellite image is used to identify the areas at risk from eruption scenarios. Parameters such as wind direction, vent location, and explosion energy are varied for hazard simulations to quantify the area impacted by different eruption scenarios. Proximal syn-eruptive hazards include tephra fall, base pyroclastic surges, and ballistic bombs. Distal hazards include predominantly ash fall. Eruption scenarios are simulated using Eject and Plumeria models as well as similar case studies from other urban volcanic fields. Within 5 km of the volcanic field center, more than 30 km2 of residential and commercial/industrial infrastructure will be damaged by proximal syn-eruptive hazards, in addition to 34 km2 of agricultural land, 291 km of roads, more than 10 km of railway, an airport, and two health centers. Within 100 km of the volcanic field center, ash fall will affect 3946 km2 of agricultural land, 179 km2 of residential land, and 28 km2 of commercial/industrial land. Approximately 2700 km of roads and railways, 553 km of waterways, an airport, and 14 health centers are located

  20. Environmental Resources of Selected Areas of Hawaii: Geological Hazards (DRAFT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staub, W.P.

    1994-06-01

    This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice in the Federal Register on May 17, 1994 (Fed Regis. 5925638) withdrawing its Notice of Intent (Fed Regis. 575433) of February 14, 1992, to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) publications and open-file reports. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift, and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis). First, overviews of volcanic and earthquake activity, and details of offshore geologic hazards is provided for the Hawaiian Islands. Then, a more detailed discussion of onshore geologic hazards is presented with special emphasis on the southern third of Hawaii and the east rift

  1. The Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM: a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Marrero

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Volcanic eruptions are among the most awesome and powerful displays of nature's force, constituting a major natural hazard for society (a single eruption can claim thousands of lives in an instant. Consequently, assessment and management of volcanic risk have become critically important goals of modern volcanology. Over recent years, numerous tools have been developed to evaluate volcanic risk and support volcanic crisis management: probabilistic analysis of future eruptions, hazard and risk maps, event trees, etc. However, there has been little improvement in the tools that may help Civil Defense officials to prepare Emergency Plans. Here we present a new tool for simulating massive evacuation processes during volcanic crisis: the Variable Scale Evacuation Model (VSEM. The main objective of the VSEM software is to optimize the evacuation process of Emergency Plans during volcanic crisis. For this, the VSEM allows the simulation of an evacuation considering different strategies depending on diverse impact scenarios. VSEM is able to calculate the required time for the complete evacuation taking into account diverse evacuation scenarios (number and type of population, infrastructure, road network, etc. and to detect high-risk or "blackspots" of the road network. The program is versatile and can work at different scales, thus being capable of simulating the evacuation of small villages as well as huge cities.

  2. Hazard maps of Colima volcano, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Nunez-Cornu, F. J.; Escudero Ayala, C. R.

    2011-12-01

    Colima volcano, also known as Volcan de Fuego (19° 30.696 N, 103° 37.026 W), is located on the border between the states of Jalisco and Colima and is the most active volcano in Mexico. Began its current eruptive process in February 1991, in February 10, 1999 the biggest explosion since 1913 occurred at the summit dome. The activity during the 2001-2005 period was the most intense, but did not exceed VEI 3. The activity resulted in the formation of domes and their destruction after explosive events. The explosions originated eruptive columns, reaching attitudes between 4,500 and 9,000 m.a.s.l., further pyroclastic flows reaching distances up to 3.5 km from the crater. During the explosive events ash emissions were generated in all directions reaching distances up to 100 km, slightly affected nearby villages as Tuxpan, Tonila, Zapotlán, Cuauhtemoc, Comala, Zapotitlan de Vadillo and Toliman. During the 2005 this volcano has had an intense effusive-explosive activity, similar to the one that took place during the period of 1890 through 1900. Intense pre-plinian eruption in January 20, 1913, generated little economic losses in the lower parts of the volcano due to low population density and low socio-economic activities at the time. Shows the updating of the volcanic hazard maps published in 2001, where we identify whit SPOT satellite imagery and Google Earth, change in the land use on the slope of volcano, the expansion of the agricultural frontier on the east and southeast sides of the Colima volcano, the population inhabiting the area is approximately 517,000 people, and growing at an annual rate of 4.77%, also the region that has shown an increased in the vulnerability for the development of economic activities, supported by the construction of highways, natural gas pipelines and electrical infrastructure that connect to the Port of Manzanillo to Guadalajara city. The update the hazard maps are: a) Exclusion areas and moderate hazard for explosive events

  3. A novel genotoxin-specific qPCR array based on the metabolically competent human HepaRG™ cell line as a rapid and reliable tool for improved in vitro hazard assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ates, Gamze; Mertens, Birgit; Heymans, Anja; Verschaeve, Luc; Milushev, Dimiter; Vanparys, Philippe; Roosens, Nancy H C; De Keersmaecker, Sigrid C J; Rogiers, Vera; Doktorova, Tatyana Y

    2018-04-01

    Although the value of the regulatory accepted batteries for in vitro genotoxicity testing is recognized, they result in a high number of false positives. This has a major impact on society and industries developing novel compounds for pharmaceutical, chemical, and consumer products, as afflicted compounds have to be (prematurely) abandoned or further tested on animals. Using the metabolically competent human HepaRG ™ cell line and toxicogenomics approaches, we have developed an upgraded, innovative, and proprietary gene classifier. This gene classifier is based on transcriptomic changes induced by 12 genotoxic and 12 non-genotoxic reference compounds tested at sub-cytotoxic concentrations, i.e., IC10 concentrations as determined by the 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay. The resulting gene classifier was translated into an easy-to-handle qPCR array that, as shown by pathway analysis, covers several different cellular processes related to genotoxicity. To further assess the predictivity of the tool, a set of 5 known positive and 5 known negative test compounds for genotoxicity was evaluated. In addition, 2 compounds with debatable genotoxicity data were tested to explore how the qPCR array would classify these. With an accuracy of 100%, when equivocal results were considered positive, the results showed that combining HepaRG ™ cells with a genotoxin-specific qPCR array can improve (geno)toxicological hazard assessment. In addition, the developed qPCR array was able to provide additional information on compounds for which so far debatable genotoxicity data are available. The results indicate that the new in vitro tool can improve human safety assessment of chemicals in general by basing predictions on mechanistic toxicogenomics information.

  4. Thermal vesiculation during volcanic eruptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavallée, Yan; Dingwell, Donald B; Johnson, Jeffrey B; Cimarelli, Corrado; Hornby, Adrian J; Kendrick, Jackie E; von Aulock, Felix W; Kennedy, Ben M; Andrews, Benjamin J; Wadsworth, Fabian B; Rhodes, Emma; Chigna, Gustavo

    2015-12-24

    Terrestrial volcanic eruptions are the consequence of magmas ascending to the surface of the Earth. This ascent is driven by buoyancy forces, which are enhanced by bubble nucleation and growth (vesiculation) that reduce the density of magma. The development of vesicularity also greatly reduces the 'strength' of magma, a material parameter controlling fragmentation and thus the explosive potential of the liquid rock. The development of vesicularity in magmas has until now been viewed (both thermodynamically and kinetically) in terms of the pressure dependence of the solubility of water in the magma, and its role in driving gas saturation, exsolution and expansion during decompression. In contrast, the possible effects of the well documented negative temperature dependence of solubility of water in magma has largely been ignored. Recently, petrological constraints have demonstrated that considerable heating of magma may indeed be a common result of the latent heat of crystallization as well as viscous and frictional heating in areas of strain localization. Here we present field and experimental observations of magma vesiculation and fragmentation resulting from heating (rather than decompression). Textural analysis of volcanic ash from Santiaguito volcano in Guatemala reveals the presence of chemically heterogeneous filaments hosting micrometre-scale vesicles. The textures mirror those developed by disequilibrium melting induced via rapid heating during fault friction experiments, demonstrating that friction can generate sufficient heat to induce melting and vesiculation of hydrated silicic magma. Consideration of the experimentally determined temperature and pressure dependence of water solubility in magma reveals that, for many ascent paths, exsolution may be more efficiently achieved by heating than by decompression. We conclude that the thermal path experienced by magma during ascent strongly controls degassing, vesiculation, magma strength and the effusive

  5. Submarine earthquake rupture, active faulting and volcanism along the major Liquiñe-Ofqui Fault Zone and implications for seismic hazard assessment in the Patagonian Andes Ruptura sísmica submarina, tectónica y volcanismo activo a lo largo de la Falla Liquiñe-Ofqui e implicancias para el peligro sísmico en los Andes patagónicos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Vargas

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liquiñe-Ofqui fault zone (LOFZ in the Patagonian Andes is an active major transpressional intra-arc fault system along which Quaternary faulting and volcanism develop. Subaerial and submarine geomorphologic and structural characterization of latest Pleistocene-Holocene faults and monogenetic volcanoes allows us to assess geological cartography of active faults and the kinematic model for recent tectonics during postglacial times, since 12,000 cal. years BP. This allows increasing the basic geological knowledge necessary for determining the seismic hazard associated with cortical structures in the Aysén region in southern Chile. Fault cartography and field observations suggest dominant dextral-reverse strike slip along north-south and locally NNW-striking faults, dextral-normal strike slip along NE to NNE- striking faults, and sinistral strike slip along east-west faults. This kinematics is consistent with regional SW-NE shortening in the context of a major transpressional fault zone. Holocene and even historic monogenetic and sub-aquatic volcanism occurred in this tectonic setting in a close spatial relationship and probably favored by the activity and local architecture of faults. Submarine fault scarps and deformed sediments observed at the bottom of the Aysén Fjord were associated with the destructive April 2007 Mw6.2 earthquake located along the LOFZ. Our observations show that this earthquake occurred along dextral 15-20 km long N-S structure named Punta Cola Fault (PCF. This fault system is located some kilometres to the east of the main N-S Río Cuervo Fault (RCF. Most of the epicentres of the seismic swarm during 2007 were located along or in between both structures. The study area is a transference zone between N-S regional branches of the LOFZ. The cartography of fault segments proposed here together with geophysical and geologic data suggest that large earthquakes Mw6.2-6.5 can be typically expected along most of the active

  6. Natural Hazards Science at the U.S. Geological Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Suzanne C.; Jones, Lucile M.; Holmes, Robert R.

    2013-01-01

    The mission of the USGS in natural hazards is to develop and apply hazard science to help protect the safety, security, and economic well-being of the Nation. The costs and consequences of natural hazards can be enormous, and each year more people and infrastructure are at risk. The USGS conducts hazard research and works closely with stakeholders and cooperators to inform a broad range of planning and response activities at individual, local, State, national, and international levels. It has critical statutory and nonstatutory roles regarding floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, coastal erosion, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and magnetic storms. USGS science can help to understand and reduce risks from natural hazards by providing the information that decisionmakers need to determine which risk management activities are worth­while.

  7. Beyond eruptive scenarios: assessing tephra fallout hazard from Neapolitan volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandri, Laura; Costa, Antonio; Selva, Jacopo; Tonini, Roberto; Macedonio, Giovanni; Folch, Arnau; Sulpizio, Roberto

    2016-04-12

    Assessment of volcanic hazards is necessary for risk mitigation. Typically, hazard assessment is based on one or a few, subjectively chosen representative eruptive scenarios, which use a specific combination of eruptive sizes and intensities to represent a particular size class of eruption. While such eruptive scenarios use a range of representative members to capture a range of eruptive sizes and intensities in order to reflect a wider size class, a scenario approach neglects to account for the intrinsic variability of volcanic eruptions, and implicitly assumes that inter-class size variability (i.e. size difference between different eruptive size classes) dominates over intra-class size variability (i.e. size difference within an eruptive size class), the latter of which is treated as negligible. So far, no quantitative study has been undertaken to verify such an assumption. Here, we adopt a novel Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Analysis (PVHA) strategy, which accounts for intrinsic eruptive variabilities, to quantify the tephra fallout hazard in the Campania area. We compare the results of the new probabilistic approach with the classical scenario approach. The results allow for determining whether a simplified scenario approach can be considered valid, and for quantifying the bias which arises when full variability is not accounted for.

  8. A robust method to forecast volcanic ash clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Pavolonis, Mike; Sieglaff, Justin

    2012-01-01

    Ash clouds emanating from volcanic eruption columns often form trails of ash extending thousands of kilometers through the Earth's atmosphere, disrupting air traffic and posing a significant hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community charged with reducing flight risk must accurately assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. In response to this need, a number of different transport models have been developed for this purpose and applied to recent eruptions, providing a means to assess uncertainty in forecasts. Here we provide a framework for optimal forecasts and their uncertainties given any model and any observational data. This involves random sampling of the probability distributions of input (source) parameters to a transport model and iteratively running the model with different inputs, each time assessing the predictions that the model makes about ash dispersal by direct comparison with satellite data. The results of these comparisons are embodied in a likelihood function whose maximum corresponds to the minimum misfit between model output and observations. Bayes theorem is then used to determine a normalized posterior probability distribution and from that a forecast of future uncertainty in ash dispersal. The nature of ash clouds in heterogeneous wind fields creates a strong maximum likelihood estimate in which most of the probability is localized to narrow ranges of model source parameters. This property is used here to accelerate probability assessment, producing a method to rapidly generate a prediction of future ash concentrations and their distribution based upon assimilation of satellite data as well as model and data uncertainties. Applying this method to the recent eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland, we show that the 3 and 6 h forecasts of ash cloud location probability encompassed the location of observed satellite-determined ash cloud loads, providing an

  9. Preliminary assessment of the risk of volcanism at a proposed nuclear-waste repository in the southern Great Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowe, B.M.; Carr, W.J.

    1980-01-01

    Volcanic hazard studies of the southern Great Basin are being conducted on behalf of the Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigations program. Current work is chiefly concerned with characterizing the geology, chronology, and tectonic setting of Pliocene and Quaternary volcanism in the Nevada Test Site region, and assessing volcanic risk through consequence and probability studies, particularly with respect to a potential site in the southwestern Nevada Test Site. Young ( - 6 volcanic events per year. Based on this rate, the annual probability of disruption of a 10-km 2 repository located within a 25-km radius circle centered at Yucca Mountain, southwestern Nevada Test Site, is 10 - 8 . A larger area, 50-km radius, yields a disruption probability of 10 - 9 per year. Current tectonic zonation studies of the southern Great Basin will reduce the calculated probabilities of basaltic eruption for certain areas. 21 references, 3 figures

  10. Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach I: Development and application of a hypothetical eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deligne, Natalia I.; Fitzgerald, Rebecca H.; Blake, Daniel M.; Davies, Alistair J.; Hayes, Josh L.; Stewart, Carol; Wilson, Grant; Wilson, Thomas M.; Castelino, Renella; Kennedy, Ben M.; Muspratt, Scott; Woods, Richard

    2017-04-01

    What happens when a city has a volcanic eruption within its boundaries? To explore the consequences of this rare but potentially catastrophic combination, we develop a detailed multi-hazard scenario of an Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) eruption; the AVF underlies New Zealand's largest city, Auckland. We start with an existing AVF unrest scenario sequence and develop it through a month-long hypothetical eruption based on geologic investigations of the AVF and historic similar eruptions from around the world. We devise a credible eruption sequence and include all volcanic hazards that could occur in an AVF eruption. In consultation with Civil Defence and Emergency Management staff, we create a series of evacuation maps for before, during, and after the hypothetical eruption sequence. Our result is a versatile scenario with many possible applications, developed further in companion papers that explore eruption consequences on transportation and water networks. However, here we illustrate one application: evaluating the consequences of an eruption on electricity service provision. In a collaborative approach between scientists and electricity service providers, we evaluate the impact of the hypothetical eruption to electricity generation, transmission, and distribution infrastructure. We then evaluate how the impacted network functions, accounting for network adaptations (e.g., diverting power away from evacuated areas), site access, and restoration factors. We present a series of regional maps showing areas with full service, rolling outages, and no power as a result of the eruption. This illustrative example demonstrates how a detailed scenario can be used to further understand the ramifications of urban volcanism on local and regional populations, and highlights the importance of looking beyond damage to explore the consequences of volcanism.

  11. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2013-12-01

    This research project adopted an interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). New data were produced that: (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience. Despite their isolation and prolonged periods of hardship, islanders have demonstrated an ability to cope with and recover from adverse events. This resilience is likely a function of remoteness, strong kinship ties, bonding social capital, and persistence of shared values and principles established at community inception. While there is good knowledge of the styles of volcanic activity on Tristan, given the high degree of scientific uncertainty about the timing, size and location of future volcanism, a qualitative scenario planning approach was used as a vehicle to convey this information to the islanders. This deliberative, anticipatory method allowed on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification, management and capacity building within their community. This paper demonstrates the value of integrating social and physical sciences with development of effective, tailored communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  12. Electrostatic phenomena in volcanic eruptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lane, S J; James, M R; Gilbert, J S, E-mail: s.lane@lancaster.ac.uk [Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ (United Kingdom)

    2011-06-23

    Electrostatic phenomena have long been associated with the explosive eruption of volcanoes. Lightning generated in volcanic plumes is a spectacular atmospheric electrical event that requires development of large potential gradients over distances of up to kilometres. This process begins as hydrated liquid rock (magma) ascends towards Earth's surface. Pressure reduction causes water supersaturation in the magma and the development of bubbles of supercritical water, where deeper than c. 1000 m, and water vapour at shallower depths that drives flow expansion. The generation of high strain rates in the expanding bubbly magma can cause it to fracture in a brittle manner, as deformation relaxation timescales are exceeded. The brittle fracture provides the initial charge separation mechanism, known as fractoemission. The resulting mixture of charged silicate particles and ions evolves over time, generating macro-scale potential gradients in the atmosphere and driving processes such as particle aggregation. For the silicate particles, aggregation driven by electrostatic effects is most significant for particles smaller than c. 100 {mu}m. Aggregation acts to change the effective aerodynamic behaviour of silicate particles, thus altering the sedimentation rates of particles from volcanic plumes from the atmosphere. The presence of liquid phases also promotes aggregation processes and lightning.

  13. Assessment of volcanic and geothermal activity in the Pasco Basin and vicinity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, J.D.

    1980-01-01

    Event network analyses indicate the most likely volcanic hazard to the Pasco Basin is influx of ash fall tephra from source areas in the Cascade Range. Less likely, but still notable, is the possibility of water flooding the Pasco Basin as a result of volcanic damming of one or more major drainages in the region. The least probable hazards include (1) influx of ash flows from eruptions in the Cascade Range or the Basin and Range Province, (2) renewed flood basalt volcanism, and (3) breaching of a repository by a dike or fissure. It is highly unlikely that volcanism will pose a direct threat to the integrity of any nuclear waste repositories in the Pasco Basin. Low-temperature geothermal water (20 degrees--90 degrees C) is present at random locations within the Pasco Basin and vicinity. This water may represent a potential resource only for direct heating purposes. Available data indicate no geothermal reservoirs with temperatures high enough and depths shallow enough for economical production of electricity are present within the Pasco Basin. 70 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

  14. Temporal evolution of the Roccamonfina volcanic complex (Pleistocene), Central Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouchon, V.; Gillot, P. Y.; Quidelleur, X.; Chiesa, S.; Floris, B.

    2008-10-01

    The Roccamonfina volcanic complex (RVC), in southern Italy, is an Early to Middle Pleistocene stratovolcano sharing temporal and morphological characteristics with the Somma-Vesuvius and the Alban Hills; both being associated with high volcanic hazard for the cities of Naples and Rome, respectively. The RVC is important for the understanding of volcanic evolution in the Roman and Campanian volcanic provinces. We report a comprehensive study of its evolution based on morphological, geochemical and K-Ar geochronological data. The RVC was active from c.a. 550 ka to 150 ka. Its evolution is divided into five stages, defining a volcanic pulse recurrence time of c.a. 90-100 kyr. The two initial stages, consisted in the construction of two successive stratovolcanoes of the tephrite-phonolite, namely "High-K series". The first stage was terminated by a major plinian eruption emplacing the trachytic Rio Rava pumices at 439 ± 9 ka. At the end of the second stage, the last High-K series stratovolcano was destroyed by a large sector collapse and the emplacement of the Brown Leucitic Tuff (BLT) at 353 ± 5 ka. The central caldera of the RVC is the result of the overlapping of the Rio Rava and of the BLT explosions. The plinian eruption of the BLT is related to the emptying of a stratified, deep-seated HKS magma chamber during the upwelling of K series (KS) magma, marking a major geochemical transition and plumbing system re-organization. The following stage was responsible for the emplacement of the Lower White Trachytic Tuff at 331 ± 2 ka, and of basaltic-trachytic effusive products erupted through the main vent. The subsequent activity was mainly restricted to the emplacement of basaltic-shoshonitic parasitic cones and lava flows, and of minor subplinian deposits of the Upper White Trachytic Tuff between 275 and 230 ka. The northern crater is most probably a maar that formed by the phreatomagmatic explosion of the Yellow Trachytic Tuff at 230 ka. The latest stage of

  15. Tools and techniques for developing tephra stratigraphies in lake cores: A case study from the basaltic Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopkins, Jenni L.; Millet, Marc-Alban; Timm, Christian; Wilson, Colin J. N.; Leonard, Graham S.; Palin, J. Michael; Neil, Helen

    2015-09-01

    Probabilistic hazard forecasting for a volcanic region relies on understanding and reconstructing the eruptive record (derived potentially from proximal as well as distal volcanoes). Tephrostratigraphy is commonly used as a reconstructive tool by cross-correlating tephra deposits to create a stratigraphic framework that can be used to assess magnitude-frequency relationships for eruptive histories. When applied to widespread rhyolitic deposits, tephra identifications and correlations have been successful; however, the identification and correlation of basaltic tephras are more problematic. Here, using tephras in drill cores from six maars in the Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF), New Zealand, we show how X-ray density scanning coupled with magnetic susceptibility analysis can be used to accurately and reliably identify basaltic glass shard-bearing horizons in lacustrine sediments and which, when combined with the major and trace element signatures of the tephras, can be used to distinguish primary from reworked layers. After reliably identifying primary vs. reworked basaltic horizons within the cores, we detail an improved method for cross-core correlation based on stratigraphy and geochemical fingerprinting. We present major and trace element data for individual glass shards from 57 separate basaltic horizons identified within the cores. Our results suggest that in cases where major element compositions (SiO2, CaO, Al2O3, FeO, MgO) do not provide unambiguous correlations, trace elements (e.g. La, Gd, Yb, Zr, Nb, Nd) and trace element ratios (e.g. [La/Yb]N, [Gd/Yb]N, [Zr/Yb]N) are successful in improving the compositional distinction between the AVF basaltic tephra horizons, thereby allowing an improved eruptive history of the AVF to be reconstructed.

  16. Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, R.G.; Gregory, R.T.; Brown, G.F.

    2016-01-01

    The Cenozoic volcanic rocks of Saudi Arabia cover about 90,000 km2, one of the largest areas of alkali olivine basalt in the world. These volcanic rocks are in 13 separate fields near the eastern coast of the Red Sea and in the western Arabian Peninsula highlands from Syria southward to the Yemen Arab Republic.

  17. Quaternary basaltic volcanism in the Payenia volcanic province, Argentina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søager, Nina

    primitive basalts and trachybasalts but also more evolved samples from the retroarc region and the larger volcanoes Payún Matrú and Payún Liso are presented. The samples cover a broad range of compositions from intraplate lavas similar to ocean island basalts to arc andesites. A common feature found...... are isotopically similar to the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone arc rocks and their mantle source possibly resembled the source of South Atlantic N-MORB prior to addition of fluids and melts from the subduction channel. However, it must have been more enriched than the estimates of depleted upper mantle from...... the lithosphere is thinnest and possibly in areas of elevated mantle temperatures. The pyroxenite melts formed at deeper levels react with the surrounding peridotite and thereby changes composition leading to eruption of melts which experienced variable degrees of melt-peridotite interaction. This can presumably...

  18. Fault propagation folds induced by gravitational failure and slumping of the Central Costa Rica volcanic range: Implications for large terrestrial and Martian volcanic edifices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgia, A.; Burr, J.; Montero, W.; Morales, L.D.; Alvarado, G.E.

    1990-01-01

    Long sublinear ridges and related scarps located at the base of large volcanic structures are frequently interpreted as normal faults associated with extensional regional stress. In contrast, the ridges bordering the Central Costa Rica volcanic range (CCRVR) are the topographic expression of hanging wall asymmetric angular anticlines overlying low-angle thrust faults at the base of the range. These faults formed by gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of the range due to the weight of the volcanic edifices and were perhaps triggered by the intrusion of magma over the past 20,000 years. These anticlines are hypothesized to occur along the base of the volcano, where the thrust faults ramp up toward the sea bottom. Ridges and scarps between 2,000 and 5,000 m below sea level are interpreted as the topographic expression of these folds. The authors further suggest that the scarps of the CCRVR and valid scaled terrestrial analogs of the perimeter scarp of the Martian volcano Olympus Mons. They suggest that the crust below Olympus Mons has failed under the load of the volcano, triggering the radial slumping of the flanks of the volcano on basal thrusts. The thrusting would have, in turn, formed the anticlinal ridges and scarps that surround the edifice. The thrust faults may extend all the way to the base of the Martian crust (about 40 km), and they may have been active until almost the end of the volcanic activity. They suggest that gravitational failure and slumping of the flanks of volcanoes is a process common to most large volcanic edifices. In the CCRVR this slumping of the flanks is a slow intermittent process, but it could evolve to rapid massive avalanching leading to catastrophic eruptions. Thus monitoring of uplift and displacement of the folds related to the slump tectonics could become an additional effective method for mitigating volcanic hazards

  19. Monitoring Persistent Volcanic Emissions from Sulphur Springs, Saint Lucia: A Community Approach to Disaster Risk Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, E. P.; Beckles, D. M.; Cox, L.; Jackson, V. B.; Alexander, D.

    2014-12-01

    Volcanic and geothermal emissions are known natural sources of volatiles to the atmosphere. Volcanogenic air pollutants known to cause the most serious impact are carbon dioxide (CO2), sulphur dioxide (SO2), hydrogen chloride (HCl) and hydrogen fluoride (HF). Some studies into the potential for volcanic emissions to produce chronic diseases in humans indicate that areas of major concern include respiratory problems, particularly silicosis (Allen et al. 2000; Baxter et al. 1999; Buist et al. 1986), psychological stress (Shore et al. 1986), and chemical impacts of gas or ash (Giammanco et al. 1998). Sulphur Springs Park in Saint Lucia has a very high recreational value with >200,000 visitors annually, while the nearby town of Soufrière has >8,400 residents. Residents and visitors have raised concerns about the volcanic emissions and its health effects. As part of the volcanic surveillance programme undertaken by the UWI, Seismic Research Centre (SRC) in Saint Lucia, a new monitoring network has been established for quantifying the ambient SO2 in air, to which staff and visitors at the volcanic park are exposed to. The implementation and continued operation of this network has involved the training of local personnel in the active field sampling and analytical techniques required for the assessment of ambient SO2 concentrations, using a low cost monitor as well as commercial passive samplers. This approach recognizes that environmental hazards are a usual part of life and productive livelihoods, and to minimize post-disaster response and recovery it is beneficial to promote preparedness and mitigation, which is best achieved at the local level with community involvement. It is also intended that the volcanic emissions monitoring network could be used as a method to establish and maintain community-based initiatives that would also be helpful when volcanic threat manifests.

  20. Visualizing Volcanic Clouds in the Atmosphere and Their Impact on Air Traffic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunther, Tobias; Schulze, Maik; Friederici, Anke; Theisel, Holger

    2016-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions are not only hazardous in the direct vicinity of a volcano, but they also affect the climate and air travel for great distances. This article sheds light on the Grímsvötn, Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, and Nabro eruptions in 2011. The authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of Nabro's sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. The results here were developed for the 2014 IEEE Scientific Visualization Contest, which centers around the fusion of multiple satellite data modalities to reconstruct and assess the movement of volcanic ash and sulfate aerosol emissions. Using data from three volcanic eruptions that occurred in the span of approximately three weeks, the authors study the agreement of the complementary satellite data, reconstruct sulfate aerosol and volcanic ash clouds, visualize endangered flight routes, minimize occlusion in particle trajectory visualizations, and focus on the main pathways of sulfate aerosol into the stratosphere. This video provides animations of the reconstructed ash clouds. https://youtu.be/D9DvJ5AvZAs.

  1. Nuclear plant reliability data system. 1979 annual reports of cumulative system and component reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The primary purposes of the information in these reports are the following: to provide operating statistics of safety-related systems within a unit which may be used to compare and evaluate reliability performance and to provide failure mode and failure rate statistics on components which may be used in failure mode effects analysis, fault hazard analysis, probabilistic reliability analysis, and so forth

  2. An Introduction To Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyoung Su

    1993-08-01

    This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

  3. Historic hydrovolcanism at Deception Island (Antarctica): implications for eruption hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedrazzi, Dario; Németh, Károly; Geyer, Adelina; Álvarez-Valero, Antonio M.; Aguirre-Díaz, Gerardo; Bartolini, Stefania

    2018-01-01

    Deception Island (Antarctica) is the southernmost island of the South Shetland Archipelago in the South Atlantic. Volcanic activity since the eighteenth century, along with the latest volcanic unrest episodes in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, demonstrates that the volcanic system is still active and that future eruptions are likely. Despite its remote location, the South Shetland Islands are an important touristic destination during the austral summer. In addition, they host several research stations and three summer field camps. Deception Island is characterised by a Quaternary caldera system with a post-caldera succession and is considered to be part of an active, dispersed (monogenetic), volcanic field. Historical post-caldera volcanism on Deception Island involves monogenetic small-volume (VEI 2-3) eruptions such forming cones and various types of hydrovolcanic edifices. The scientific stations on the island were destroyed, or severely damaged, during the eruptions in 1967, 1969, and 1970 mainly due to explosive activity triggered by the interaction of rising (or erupting) magma with surface water, shallow groundwater, and ice. We conducted a detailed revision (field petrology and geochemistry) of the historical hydrovolcanic post-caldera eruptions of Deception Island with the aim to understand the dynamics of magma-water interaction, as well as characterise the most likely eruptive scenarios from future eruptions. We specifically focused on the Crimson Hill (estimated age between 1825 and 1829), and Kroner Lake (estimated age between 1829 and 1912) eruptions and 1967, 1969, and 1970 events by describing the eruption mechanisms related to the island's hydrovolcanic activity. Data suggest that the main hazards posed by volcanism on the island are due to fallout, ballistic blocks and bombs, and subordinate, dilute PDCs. In addition, Deception Island can be divided into five areas of expected activity due to magma-water interaction, providing additional

  4. The HISTMAG database: combining historical, archaeomagnetic and volcanic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneitz, Patrick; Leonhardt, Roman; Schnepp, Elisabeth; Heilig, Balázs; Mayrhofer, Franziska; Kovacs, Peter; Hejda, Pavel; Valach, Fridrich; Vadasz, Gergely; Hammerl, Christa; Egli, Ramon; Fabian, Karl; Kompein, Niko

    2017-09-01

    Records of the past geomagnetic field can be divided into two main categories. These are instrumental historical observations on the one hand, and field estimates based on the magnetization acquired by rocks, sediments and archaeological artefacts on the other hand. In this paper, a new database combining historical, archaeomagnetic and volcanic records is presented. HISTMAG is a relational database, implemented in MySQL, and can be accessed via a web-based interface (http://www.conrad-observatory.at/zamg/index.php/data-en/histmag-database). It combines available global historical data compilations covering the last ∼500 yr as well as archaeomagnetic and volcanic data collections from the last 50 000 yr. Furthermore, new historical and archaeomagnetic records, mainly from central Europe, have been acquired. In total, 190 427 records are currently available in the HISTMAG database, whereby the majority is related to historical declination measurements (155 525). The original database structure was complemented by new fields, which allow for a detailed description of the different data types. A user-comment function provides the possibility for a scientific discussion about individual records. Therefore, HISTMAG database supports thorough reliability and uncertainty assessments of the widely different data sets, which are an essential basis for geomagnetic field reconstructions. A database analysis revealed systematic offset for declination records derived from compass roses on historical geographical maps through comparison with other historical records, while maps created for mining activities represent a reliable source.

  5. Geomorphological Approach for Regional Zoning In The Merapi Volcanic Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Langgeng Wahyu Santosa

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Geomorphologial approach can be used as the basic for identifying and analyzing the natural resources potentials, especially in volcanic landscape. Based on its geomorphology, Merapi volcanic landscape can be divided into 5 morphological units, i.e.: volcanic cone, volcanic slope, volcanic foot, volcanic foot plain, and fluvio-volcanic plain. Each of these morphological units has specific characteristic and natural resources potential. Based on the condition of geomorphology, the regional zoning can be compiled to support the land use planning and to maintain the conservation of environmental function in the Merapi Volcanic area.

  6. Large Volcanic Rises on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smrekar, Suzanne E.; Kiefer, Walter S.; Stofan, Ellen R.

    1997-01-01

    Large volcanic rises on Venus have been interpreted as hotspots, or the surface manifestation of mantle upwelling, on the basis of their broad topographic rises, abundant volcanism, and large positive gravity anomalies. Hotspots offer an important opportunity to study the behavior of the lithosphere in response to mantle forces. In addition to the four previously known hotspots, Atla, Bell, Beta, and western Eistla Regiones, five new probable hotspots, Dione, central Eistla, eastern Eistla, Imdr, and Themis, have been identified in the Magellan radar, gravity and topography data. These nine regions exhibit a wider range of volcano-tectonic characteristics than previously recognized for venusian hotspots, and have been classified as rift-dominated (Atla, Beta), coronae-dominated (central and eastern Eistla, Themis), or volcano-dominated (Bell, Dione, western Eistla, Imdr). The apparent depths of compensation for these regions ranges from 65 to 260 km. New estimates of the elastic thickness, using the 90 deg and order spherical harmonic field, are 15-40 km at Bell Regio, and 25 km at western Eistla Regio. Phillips et al. find a value of 30 km at Atla Regio. Numerous models of lithospheric and mantle behavior have been proposed to interpret the gravity and topography signature of the hotspots, with most studies focusing on Atla or Beta Regiones. Convective models with Earth-like parameters result in estimates of the thickness of the thermal lithosphere of approximately 100 km. Models of stagnant lid convection or thermal thinning infer the thickness of the thermal lithosphere to be 300 km or more. Without additional constraints, any of the model fits are equally valid. The thinner thermal lithosphere estimates are most consistent with the volcanic and tectonic characteristics of the hotspots. Estimates of the thermal gradient based on estimates of the elastic thickness also support a relatively thin lithosphere (Phillips et al.). The advantage of larger estimates of

  7. Volcanic Ash Impacts on Air Traffic from the 2009 Mt. Redoubt Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, J. J.; Matus, A. V.; Hudnall, L. A.; Krueger, A. J.; Haynes, J. A.; Pippin, M. R.

    2009-12-01

    study was completed to help improve volcanic ash detection, forecast models and warnings and to assist policy makers and the airlines to refine preparatory measures for the prevention of future volcanic ash encounters. It’s overarching objective is not only to reduce the potentially catastrophic loss of aircraft and human life posed by the volcanic ash hazard, but more often to mitigate the economic impact from flight delays and cancellations. In that vein, this project supports Sub Goal 3A of the NASA Strategic Plan, “Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs.”

  8. Self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Siniscalchi

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available We present the results of self-potential, geoelectric and magnetotelluric studies in Italian active volcanic areas as essential contributions both to structural modeling and to hazard evaluation. On Mt. Etna and Mt. Somma-Vesuvius complexes structural modeling was emphasized due to a lack of global information involving the whole apparatuses, at least from the electrical point of view. Hazard investigation was, instead, investigated with high resolution techniques on the island of Vulcano, where intense unrest phenomena have long been recorded.

  9. Environmental resources of selected areas of Hawaii: Geological hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Staub, W.P.; Reed, R.M.

    1995-03-01

    This report has been prepared to make available and archive the background scientific data and related information collected on geologic hazards during the preparation of the environmental impact statement (EIS) for Phases 3 and 4 of the Hawaii Geothermal Project (HGP) as defined by the state of Hawaii in its April 1989 proposal to Congress. The US Department of Energy (DOE) published a notice withdrawing its Notice of Intent to prepare the HGP-EIS. Since the state of Hawaii is no longer pursuing or planning to pursue the HGP, DOE considers the project to be terminated. This report presents a review of current information on geologic hazards in the Hawaiian Islands. Interrelationships among these hazards are discussed. Probabilities of occurrence of given geologic hazards are provided in various regions where sufficient geologic or historical data are available. Most of the information contained herein is compiled from recent US Geological Survey (USGS) publications and USGS open-file reports related to this project. This report describes the natural geologic hazards present in the area and does not represent an assessment of environmental impacts. Geologic hazards originate both onshore and offshore. Onshore geologic hazards such as volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, surface rupture, landslides, uplift and subsidence occur mainly on the southern third of the island of Hawaii (hereinafter referred to as Hawaii). Offshore geologic hazards are more widely distributed throughout the Hawaiian Islands. Examples of offshore geologic hazards are submarine landslides, turbidity currents, and seismic sea waves (tsunamis).

  10. Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Njome, Manga S.; Suh, Cheo E.; Chuyong, George; de Wit, Maarten J.

    2010-11-01

    A study of volcanic risk perception was carried out in rural communities around the Mount Cameroon volcano between August and December 2008. The results indicate that risk perception reflects the levels of threat to which a resident population has been exposed to previously. Results of 70 responses to questionnaires show that local knowledge of hazards is high. Most respondents correctly indicated that earthquake and lava flow activities would affect resident population most in the future. By contrast, respondent's ability to adapt and protect themselves from the effects of future eruptions is poor, and inhabitants would likely shift responsibility for their protection to the requisite experts. This study confirms that there is little knowledge of any existing emergency plan, little or no educational outreach activities, but a high perceived need for information about and implementation of such actions. Knowledge about natural threats is found to be directly related to past exposure to volcanic hazard, and is significantly higher for people living along the southern than those along the northern slopes of Mt. Cameroon. The data also show that the media remains the most accessible channel for hazard communication, and that the internet is a growing information source that should be used to reach out to the younger generation. It is clear from the results of this study that major education and information efforts are required to improve the public's knowledge, confidence in the government, and growing self-reliance, in order to improve both collective and individual capacity to face future volcanic emergencies.

  11. Dinasour extinction and volcanic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gledhill, J. A.

    There is at present some controversy about the reason for the mass extinction of dinosaurs and other forms of life at the end of the Cretaceous. A suggestion by Alvarez et al. [1980] that this was due to the collision of the earth with a meteorite 10 km or so in diameter has excited considerable interest [Silver and Schultz, 1982] and also some criticism [Stanley, 1984]. A recent publication [Wood, 1984] describing the catastrophic effects of a relatively minor lava flow in Iceland suggests that intense volcanic activity could have played a large part in the extinctions. In this letter it is pointed out that the Deccan lava flows in India took place in the appropriate time and may well have been of sufficient magnitude to be a major factor in the Cretaceous-Tertiary (C-T) boundary catastrophe.

  12. Geophysics in the monitoring of natural hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arafin, S.

    2005-01-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, tsunamis, landslides and volcanic eruptions strike every year, killing thousands of people and destroying property worth billions of dollars. Some of these can be a surprise like the 2004 Asian Tsunami. Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides are usually grouped into what are termed 'geo-hazards'. Because mud volcanoes do not pose any serious threat to human life and property, they are the least studied of all geo-hazards. However, the 1997 explosive eruption of the Piparo mud volcano in Trinidad, West Indies caught many scientists and planners by surprise. It was the strongest eruption of a mud volcano ever recorded, causing extensive damage to the small town of Piparo. A description of the 1997 eruption of the Piparo mud volcano and the associated land deformation, together with a three-dimensional gravity modeling of the gravitational anomaly of the nearby Tabaquite mud volcano have been presented. From the modeling, the geometry of the mud volcano has been deciphered, and it has been shown that a large, dynamic density contrast exists at the Tabaquite volcano. The existence of a large dynamic density contrast indicates that the gravity method can be used as a potential tool for monitoring mud volcanoes. (author)

  13. Mass movement processes associated with volcanic structures in Mexico City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Carlos Valerio

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Mexico City, one of the most populated areas of the world, has been affected by various hazards of natural origin, such as subsidence and cracking of the soil, seismicity, floods and mass movement processes (MMPs. Owing to the lack of space on the plain, in recent years urban growth has been concentrated particularly on the slopes of the surrounding mountain ranges, and this has significantly modified the dynamics of the relief as well as the hydrogeological conditions. The specific character of natural susceptibility to mass movements is strongly dependent on the geological–structural and morphological characteristics of the volcanic bodies that form the mountainous relief. This natural susceptibility, combined with the characteristics of vulnerability of the society, creates risk conditions that can generate severe consequences for the population and the economy. Hence, based on an inventory of mass movement processes comprising 95 data points, the present study aimed to achieve a zoning of the areas susceptible to these processes, as well as to characterize the mechanisms of instability in the volcanic structures that form the relief of the area in question. The results of this work clearly show the role of the lithology, the mode of emplacement and the morpho–structural characteristics of the volcanic structures, in the types of mass movement processes. In addition, it identifies the diverse activities of anthropogenic origin that favour slope instability in the zone: deforestation and burning of rubbish, felling of timber on the slopes for building infrastructure and dwellings, leakages of water, vibrations of vehicles, rotating machinery and the use of explosives in mining works, overloading the heads of the slopes, disturbance of the geohydrological regime, generation of rubbish tips, terracing of the slopes for cultivation, inadequate building regulations, and the use of counterproductive or ineffectual stabilization measures.

  14. Improved prediction and tracking of volcanic ash clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, Larry G.; Webley, Peter

    2009-01-01

    During the past 30??years, more than 100 airplanes have inadvertently flown through clouds of volcanic ash from erupting volcanoes. Such encounters have caused millions of dollars in damage to the aircraft and have endangered the lives of tens of thousands of passengers. In a few severe cases, total engine failure resulted when ash was ingested into turbines and coating turbine blades. These incidents have prompted the establishment of cooperative efforts by the International Civil Aviation Organization and the volcanological community to provide rapid notification of eruptive activity, and to monitor and forecast the trajectories of ash clouds so that they can be avoided by air traffic. Ash-cloud properties such as plume height, ash concentration, and three-dimensional ash distribution have been monitored through non-conventional remote sensing techniques that are under active development. Forecasting the trajectories of ash clouds has required the development of volcanic ash transport and dispersion models that can calculate the path of an ash cloud over the scale of a continent or a hemisphere. Volcanological inputs to these models, such as plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, ash distribution with altitude, and grain-size distribution, must be assigned in real time during an event, often with limited observations. Databases and protocols are currently being developed that allow for rapid assignment of such source parameters. In this paper, we summarize how an interdisciplinary working group on eruption source parameters has been instigating research to improve upon the current understanding of volcanic ash cloud characterization and predictions. Improved predictions of ash cloud movement and air fall will aid in making better hazard assessments for aviation and for public health and air quality. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  15. Identification of shallow volcanic structures in Timanfaya National Park (Lanzarote, Canary Islands) through combined geophysical prospecting techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Ortiz, David; Montesinos, Fuensanta G.; Martin-Crespo, Tomas; Solla, Mercedes; Arnoso, Jose; Velez, Emilio

    2014-05-01

    The Timanfaya National Park is a volcanic area, which occupies a surface area of about 51 sq. km in the southwest of Lanzarote Island (Canary Archipelago, Spain). The 1730-1736 eruption gave rise to this volcanic landscape with more than 30 volcanic cones formed in different phases of basaltic type eruptions. It was one of the most important volcanic events occurred in the Canary Archipelago over the last 500 years. Several canyons ("jameos") are crossing this landscape in all directions, being created while the surface of the lava cooled off, and broke into pieces, falling down into the several tubes. Its location and identification is important to prevent hazards or to achieve a good exploitation from a visitor viewpoint in a restricted touristic area as the Timanfaya National Park. The use of prospective techniques to investigate the near subsurface structure of the park is very complicated, and only some regional study through gravity, magnetism and seismicity have been undertaken to attempt to model the deeper crustal structure of Lanzarote Island. This work presents a new study about the location of recent lava tubes at the volcanic area of Timanfaya National Park by the analysis and joint interpretation of high-resolution gravity, ground penetrating radar (GPR), and electromagnetic induction (EMI) data obtained over areas which had not been surveyed up to date. The studied lava flows are located at the Calderas Quemadas zone. The processed GPR radargram displays a complex pattern of reflections along the whole profile up to ~9 m depth. The strongest reflections can be grouped in four different areas defined by several hyperbolic reflections. Direct visual inspections carried out in the field allow confirming the occurrence of lava tubes at two of the locations where hyperbolic reflections are defined. Then, the strong reflections observed have been interpreted as the effect of the roof and bottom interfaces of several lava tubes. A microgravity survey along

  16. Earth's Largest Terrestrial Landslide (The Markagunt Gravity Slide of Southwest Utah): Insights from the Catastrophic Collapse of a Volcanic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, D. B.; Biek, R. F.; Rowley, P. D.

    2015-12-01

    The newly discovered Miocene Markagunt gravity slide (MGS; Utah, USA) represents the largest volcanic landslide structure on Earth. Recent geologic mapping of the MGS indicates that it was a large contiguous volcanic sheet of allochthonous andesitic mudflow breccias and lava flows, volcaniclastic rocks, and intertonguing regional ash-flow tuffs that blanketed an area of at least 5000 km2 with an estimated volume of ~3000 km3. From its breakaway zone in the Tushar and Mineral Mountains to its southern limits, the MGS is over 95 km long and at least 65 km wide. The MGS consists of four distinct structural segments: 1) a high-angle breakaway segment, 2) a bedding-plane segment, ~60 km long and ~65 km wide, typically located within the volcaniclastic Eocene-Oligocene Brian Head Formation, 3) a ramp segment ~1-2 km wide where the slide cuts upsection, and 4) a former land surface segment where the upper-plate moved at least 35 km over the Miocene landscape. The presence of basal and lateral cataclastic breccias, clastic dikes, jigsaw puzzle fracturing, internal shears, pseudotachylytes, and the overall geometry of the MGS show that it represents a single catastrophic emplacement event. The MGS represents gravitationally induced collapse of the southwest sector of the Oligocene to Miocene Marysvale volcanic field. We suggest that continuous growth of the Marysvale volcanic field, loading more volcanic rocks on a structurally weak Brian Head basement, created conditions necessary for gravity sliding. In addition, inflation of the volcanic pile due to multiple magmatic intrusions tilted the strata gently southward, inducing lateral spreading of the sub-volcanic rocks prior to failure. Although similar smaller-scale failures have been recognized from individual volcanoes, the MGS represents a new class of low frequency but high impact hazards associated with catastrophic sector collapse of large volcanic fields containing multiple volcanoes. The relationship of the MGS to

  17. Department of Energy Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murray, R.C.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of past and present accomplishments of the Natural Phenomena Hazards Program that has been ongoing at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory since 1975. The Natural Phenomena covered includes earthquake; winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes; flooding and precipitation; lightning; and volcanic events. The work is organized into four major areas (1) Policy, requirements, standards, and guidance, (2) Technical support, research and development, (3) Technology transfer, and (4) Oversight

  18. Automating Hyperspectral Data for Rapid Response in Volcanic Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Ashley G.; Doubleday, Joshua R.; Chien, Steve A.

    2013-01-01

    In a volcanic emergency, time is of the essence. It is vital to quantify eruption parameters (thermal emission, effusion rate, location of activity) and distribute this information as quickly as possible to decision-makers in order to enable effective evaluation of eruption-related risk and hazard. The goal of this work was to automate and streamline processing of spacecraft hyperspectral data, automate product generation, and automate distribution of products. Visible and Short-Wave Infrared Images of volcanic eruption in Iceland in May 2010." class="caption" align="right">The software rapidly processes hyperspectral data, correcting for incident sunlight where necessary, and atmospheric transmission; detects thermally anomalous pixels; fits data with model black-body thermal emission spectra to determine radiant flux; calculates atmospheric convection thermal removal; and then calculates total heat loss. From these results, an estimation of effusion rate is made. Maps are generated of thermal emission and location (see figure). Products are posted online, and relevant parties notified. Effusion rate data are added to historical record and plotted to identify spikes in activity for persistently active eruptions. The entire process from start to end is autonomous. Future spacecraft, especially those in deep space, can react to detection of transient processes without the need to communicate with Earth, thus increasing science return. Terrestrially, this removes the need for human intervention.

  19. Mitigation of Volcanic Risk: The COSMO-SkyMed Contribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sacco, Patrizia; Daraio, Maria Girolamo; Battagliere, Maria Libera; Coletta, Alessandro

    2015-05-01

    The Italian Space Agency (ASI) promotes Earth Observation (EO) applications related to themes such as the prediction, monitoring, management and mitigation of natural and anthropogenic hazards. The approach generally followed is the development and demonstration of prototype services, using currently available data from space missions, in particular the COSMO-SkyMed (Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean basin observation) mission, which represents the largest Italian investment in Space System for EO and thanks to which Italy plays a key role worldwide. Projects funded by ASI provide the convergence of various national industry expertise, research and institutional reference users. In this context a significant example is represented by the ASI Pilot Projects, recently concluded, dealing with various thematic, such as volcanoes. In this paper a special focus will be addressed to the volcanic risk management and the contribution provided in this field by COSMO-SkyMed satellite constellation during the last years. A comprehensive overview of the various national and international projects using COSMO-SkyMed data for the volcanic risk mitigation will be given, highlighting the Italian contribution provided worldwide in this operational framework.

  20. Microgravity change as a precursor to volcanic activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rymer, Hazel

    1994-07-01

    In recent decades, systematic microgravity studies over some 20 active volcanoes in Central America, Iceland, Italy, Japan, Papua New Guinea and the USA have provided valuable data on sub-surface mass redistribution associated with volcanic activity. Concurrent data on ground deformation are essential to the unambiguous interpretation of gravity changes. In some instances, gravity and elevation vary along the free-air or Bouguer gradients, implying that there has been no sub-surface mass or density change, respectively. Where there are residual gravity changes after correction for elevation changes, magma movements in sub-surface chambers, feeder systems, vents and fissures (dykes) or water table variations are proposed. Although detailed interpretations depend on local circumstances and the calculations depend on source geometry, in general, the smallest residual gravity changes are associated with eruptions from volatile-poor basaltic vents and at extensional rift zones, whereas the highest residual values occur at explosive, subduction-related stratocones built from volatile-rich andesitic magma. The most intriguing, yet difficult, data to interpret derive from large-volume, infrequently erupting volcanic systems where caldera unrest is now becoming well documented and the ultimate hazards are most severe. Mass increases during inflation followed by limited mass loss during subsequent deflation typify these structures.

  1. The frequency of explosive volcanic eruptions in Southeast Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelley, Patrick L; Newhall, Christopher G; Bradley, Kyle E

    There are ~750 active and potentially active volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Ash from eruptions of volcanic explosivity index 3 (VEI 3) and smaller pose mostly local hazards while eruptions of VEI ≥ 4 could disrupt trade, travel, and daily life in large parts of the region. We classify Southeast Asian volcanoes into five groups, using their morphology and, where known, their eruptive history and degassing style. Because the eruptive histories of most volcanoes in Southeast Asia are poorly constrained, we assume that volcanoes with similar morphologies have had similar eruption histories. Eruption histories of well-studied examples of each morphologic class serve as proxy histories for understudied volcanoes in the class. From known and proxy eruptive histories, we estimate that decadal probabilities of VEI 4-8 eruptions in Southeast Asia are nearly 1.0, ~0.6, ~0.15, ~0.012, and ~0.001, respectively.

  2. Hazard Analysis Database Report

    CERN Document Server

    Grams, W H

    2000-01-01

    The Hazard Analysis Database was developed in conjunction with the hazard analysis activities conducted in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for U S . Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports, for HNF-SD-WM-SAR-067, Tank Farms Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). The FSAR is part of the approved Authorization Basis (AB) for the River Protection Project (RPP). This document describes, identifies, and defines the contents and structure of the Tank Farms FSAR Hazard Analysis Database and documents the configuration control changes made to the database. The Hazard Analysis Database contains the collection of information generated during the initial hazard evaluations and the subsequent hazard and accident analysis activities. The Hazard Analysis Database supports the preparation of Chapters 3 ,4 , and 5 of the Tank Farms FSAR and the Unreviewed Safety Question (USQ) process and consists of two major, interrelated data sets: (1) Hazard Analysis Database: Data from t...

  3. Global Landslide Hazard Distribution

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Global Landslide Hazard Distribution is a 2.5 minute grid of global landslide and snow avalanche hazards based upon work of the Norwegian Geotechnical Institute...

  4. Job Hazard Analysis

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1998-01-01

    .... Establishing proper job procedures is one of the benefits of conducting a job hazard analysis carefully studying and recording each step of a job, identifying existing or potential job hazards...

  5. The issue of trust and its influence on risk communication during a volcanic crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Katharine; Barclay, Jenni; Pidgeon, Nick

    2008-03-01

    This paper investigates trust in the scientists, government authorities and wider risk management team during the ongoing volcanic crisis in Montserrat, WI. Identifying the most trusted communicator and how trust in information can be enhanced are considered important for improving the efficacy of volcanic risk communication. Qualitative interviews, participant observations and a quantitative survey were utilised to investigate the views and attitudes of the public, authorities and scientists. Trust was found to be dynamic, influenced by political factors made more complex by the colonial nature of Montserrat’s governance and the changing level of volcanic activity. The scientists were viewed by the authorities as a highly trusted expert source of volcanic information. Mistrust among some of the local authorities towards the scientists and British Governor was founded in the uncertainty of the volcanic situation and influenced by differences in levels of acceptable risk and suspicions about integrity (e.g. as a consequence of employment by the British Government). The public viewed friends and relatives as the most trusted source for volcanic information. High trust in this source allowed competing messages to reinforce beliefs of lower risk than were officially being described. The scientists were the second most trusted group by the public and considered significantly more competent, reliable, caring, fair and open than the authorities. The world press was the least trusted, preceded closely by the British Governor’s Office and Montserratian Government officials. These results tally well with other empirical findings suggesting that government ministers and departments are typically distrusted as sources of risk-related information. These findings have implications for risk communication on Montserrat and other volcanic crises. The importance and potential effectiveness of scientists as communicators, because of, and despite, the existence of political

  6. Volcanic Plume Measurements with UAV (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, H.; Kaneko, T.; Ohminato, T.

    2013-12-01

    Volatiles in magmas are the driving force of volcanic eruptions and quantification of volcanic gas flux and composition is important for the volcano monitoring. Recently we developed a portable gas sensor system (Multi-GAS) to quantify the volcanic gas composition by measuring volcanic plumes and obtained volcanic gas compositions of actively degassing volcanoes. As the Multi-GAS measures variation of volcanic gas component concentrations in the pumped air (volcanic plume), we need to bring the apparatus into the volcanic plume. Commonly the observer brings the apparatus to the summit crater by himself but such measurements are not possible under conditions of high risk of volcanic eruption or difficulty to approach the summit due to topography etc. In order to overcome these difficulties, volcanic plume measurements were performed by using manned and unmanned aerial vehicles. The volcanic plume measurements by manned aerial vehicles, however, are also not possible under high risk of eruption. The strict regulation against the modification of the aircraft, such as installing sampling pipes, also causes difficulty due to the high cost. Application of the UAVs for the volcanic plume measurements has a big advantage to avoid these problems. The Multi-GAS consists of IR-CO2 and H2O gas analyzer, SO2-H2O chemical sensors and H2 semiconductor sensor and the total weight ranges 3-6 kg including batteries. The necessary conditions of the UAV for the volcanic plumes measurements with the Multi-GAS are the payloads larger than 3 kg, maximum altitude larger than the plume height and installation of the sampling pipe without contamination of the exhaust gases, as the exhaust gases contain high concentrations of H2, SO2 and CO2. Up to now, three different types of UAVs were applied for the measurements; Kite-plane (Sky Remote) at Miyakejima operated by JMA, Unmanned airplane (Air Photo Service) at Shinomoedake, Kirishima volcano, and Unmanned helicopter (Yamaha) at Sakurajima

  7. Dispersion of the Volcanic Sulfate Cloud from the Mount Pinatubo Eruption

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquila, Valentina; Oman, Luke D.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Colarco, Peter R.; Newman, Paul A.

    2012-01-01

    We simulate the transport of the volcanic cloud from the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo with the GEOS-5 general circulation model. Our simulations are in good agreement with observational data. We tested the importance of initial condition corresponding to the specific meteorological situation at the time of the eruption by employing reanalysis from MERRA. We found no significant difference in the transport of the cloud. We show how the inclusion of the interaction between volcanic sulfate aerosol and radiation is essential for a reliable simulation of the transport of the volcanic cloud. The absorption of long wave radiation by the volcanic sulfate induces a rising of the volcanic cloud up to the middle stratosphere, combined with divergent motion from the latitude of the eruption to the tropics. Our simulations indicate that the cloud diffuses to the northern hemisphere through a lower stratospheric pathway, and to mid- and high latitudes of the southern hemisphere through a middle stratospheric pathway, centered at about 30 hPa. The direction of the middle stratospheric pathway depends on the season. We did not detect any significant change of the mixing between tropics and mid- and high latitudes in the southern hemisphere.

  8. A drill-hole geodatabase as a tool to investigate geological hazard in Napoli Urban Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albericoa, I.; Lirer, L.; Petrosino, P.

    2003-04-01

    Geological investigations in urban areas are complicated by the absence of good outcrops and field exposures, as a result of the density of civil buildings and railway and road network. On the other side, in urban areas geological investigation represents a basic tool to decisional support for the management of present private buildings and public works and for the planning of new ones. This is much more true in urban areas very exposed to geological hazard (volcanic, hydrogeological, seismic) where the high exposed value greatly rises the risk. The methodology to deal with the geological hazard in urban areas here presented is the reconstruction of buried geological formations deduced by drill-holes stratigraphy.The test area is represented by the whole municipality of Napoli city, that proves very apt to the investigation of the hazard in urban areas since it stands over an active volcanic area, comprised between the Campi Flegrei volcanic field and the Somma-Vesuvio district, that both gave explosive and effusive activity through the last centuries. Besides, the extension of the main part of the city constrained between the coastline and the belt of volcanic hills together with the presence of loose material due to pyroclastic activity makes the alluvional events an other hazardous phenomenon for the city. The performed up datable drill-holes geodata-base for the city of Napoli at present contains the record of about 800 holes stratigraphy, collected through the main public and private bodies, reflecting the drill-holes surveys made along the last 50 years before constructing the main railways, roads and aqueduct network. Drill-holes data have been interpreted and can now be read under various viewpoints (geological, lithological, volcanological); the present work presents the first results of the geological hazard investigation. The investigation of buried stratigraphy in the eastern area allows to identify the presence of pyroclastic flow deposits from Somma

  9. Seismic hazard analysis of Sinop province, Turkey using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1997-01-11

    Jan 11, 1997 ... 2008 in the Sinop province of Turkey this study presents a seismic hazard analysis based on ... Considering the development and improvement ... It is one of the most populated cities in the coun- ... done as reliably as the seismic hazard of region per- .... Seismic safety work of underground networks was.

  10. Volcanic eruptions are cooling the earth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern

    2005-01-01

    The article discusses how volcanic eruptions may influence the climate. The environmental impacts both on the earth surface and the atmosphere are surveyed. Some major eruptions in modern times are mentioned

  11. Stochastic Modeling of Past Volcanic Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Gordon

    2018-01-01

    The statistical foundation of disaster risk analysis is past experience. From a scientific perspective, history is just one realization of what might have happened, given the randomness and chaotic dynamics of Nature. Stochastic analysis of the past is an exploratory exercise in counterfactual history, considering alternative possible scenarios. In particular, the dynamic perturbations that might have transitioned a volcano from an unrest to an eruptive state need to be considered. The stochastic modeling of past volcanic crises leads to estimates of eruption probability that can illuminate historical volcanic crisis decisions. It can also inform future economic risk management decisions in regions where there has been some volcanic unrest, but no actual eruption for at least hundreds of years. Furthermore, the availability of a library of past eruption probabilities would provide benchmark support for estimates of eruption probability in future volcanic crises.

  12. Rapid SAR and GPS Measurements and Models for Hazard Science and Situational Awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, S. E.; Yun, S. H.; Hua, H.; Agram, P. S.; Liu, Z.; Moore, A. W.; Rosen, P. A.; Simons, M.; Webb, F.; Linick, J.; Fielding, E. J.; Lundgren, P.; Sacco, G. F.; Polet, J.; Manipon, G.

    2016-12-01

    The Advanced Rapid Imaging and Analysis (ARIA) project for Natural Hazards is focused on rapidly generating higher level geodetic imaging products and placing them in the hands of the solid earth science and local, national, and international natural hazard communities by providing science product generation, exploration, and delivery capabilities at an operational level. Space-based geodetic measurement techniques such as Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS), SAR-based change detection, and image pixel tracking have recently become critical additions to our toolset for understanding and mapping the damage caused by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, and floods. Analyses of these data sets are still largely handcrafted following each event and are not generated rapidly and reliably enough for response to natural disasters or for timely analysis of large data sets. The ARIA project, a joint venture co-sponsored by California Institute of Technology (Caltech) and by NASA through the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), has been capturing the knowledge applied to these responses and building it into an automated infrastructure to generate imaging products in near real-time that can improve situational awareness for disaster response. In addition, the ARIA project is developing the capabilities to provide automated imaging and analysis capabilities necessary to keep up with the imminent increase in raw data from geodetic imaging missions planned for launch by NASA, as well as international space agencies. We will present the progress we have made on automating the analysis of SAR data for hazard monitoring and response using data from Sentinel 1a/b as well as continuous GPS stations. Since the beginning of our project, our team has imaged events and generated response products for events around the world. These response products have enabled many conversations with those in the disaster response community

  13. Grain size and shape analysis of the AD 1226 tephra layer, Reykjanes volcanic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ösp Magnúsdóttir, Agnes; Höskuldsson, Ármann; Larsen, Guðrún; Tumi Guðmunsson, Magnús; Sigurgeirsson, Magnús Á.

    2014-05-01

    Recent explosive eruptions in Iceland have drawn attention to long range tephra transport in the atmosphere. In Iceland tephra forming explosion eruptions are frequent, due to abundance of water. However, the volcanism on the island is principally basaltic. Volcanism along the Reykjanes Peninsula is divided into five distinct volcanic systems. Volcano-tectonic activity within these systems is periodic, with recurrence intervals in the range of 1 ka. Last volcano-tectonic sequence began around AD 940, shortly after settlement of Iceland, and lasted through AD 1340. During this period activity was characterized by basaltic fissure eruptions. Furthermore, this activity period on the Reykjanes peninsula began within the eastern most volcanic system and gradually moved towards the west across the peninsula. The 1226 eruption was a basaltic fissure eruption with in the Reykjanes volcanic system. The eruption began on land and gradually progressed towards the SW until the volcanic fissure extended into the sea. Water-magma interaction changed the eruption from effusive into explosive forming the largest tephra layer on the peninsula. Due to its close proximity to the Keflavik international airport and that of the capital of Iceland it is important to get an insight into, the characteristics, generation and distribution of such tephra deposits. In this eruption the tephra produced had an approximate volume of 0.1 km3 and covered an area of some 3500 km2 within the 0.5 cm isopach. Total grain size distribution of this tephra layer will be presented along with analysis of principal grain shapes of the finer portion of the tephra layer as a function of distance from the source. The tephra grain size is dominated by particles finer than 1 millimeter with an almost complete absence of large grains independent of distance from the source. Comprehensive understanding of the characteristics of tephra generated in this eruption can help us to understand hazards posed by future

  14. A compound power-law model for volcanic eruptions: Implications for risk assessment of volcanism at the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, Chih-Hsiang

    1994-01-01

    Much of the ongoing debate on the use of nuclear power plants in U.S.A. centers on the safe disposal of the radioactive waste. Congress, aware of the importance of the waste issue, passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982, requiring the federal government to develop a geologic repository for the permanent disposal of high level radioactive wastes from civilian nuclear power plants. The Department of Energy (DOE) established the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) in 1983 to identify potential sites. When OCRWM had selected three potential sites to study, Congress enacted the Nuclear Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1987, which directed the DOE to characterize only one of those sites, Yucca Mountain, in southern Nevada. For a site to be acceptable, theses studies must demonstrate that the site could comply with regulations and guidelines established by the federal agencies that will be responsible for licensing, regulating, and managing the waste facility. Advocates and critics disagree on the significance and interpretation of critical geological features which bear on the safety and suitability of Yucca Mountain as a site for the construction of a high-level radioactive waste repository. Recent volcanism in the vicinity of Yucca Mountain is readily recognized as an important factor in determining future public and environmental safety because of the possibility of direct disruption of a repository site by volcanism. In particular, basaltic volcanism is regarded as direct and unequivocal evidence of deep-seated geologic instability. In this paper, statistical analysis of volcanic hazard assessment at the Yucca Mountain site is discussed, taking into account some significant geological factors raised by experts. Three types of models are considered in the data analysis. The first model assumes that both past and future volcanic activities follow a homogeneous Poisson process (HPP)

  15. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

    2015-04-01

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

  16. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afif, Haunan; Cipta, Athanasius

    2015-01-01

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography

  17. Tsunami hazard map in eastern Bali

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Afif, Haunan, E-mail: afif@vsi.esdm.go.id [Geological Agency, Bandung (Indonesia); Cipta, Athanasius [Geological Agency, Bandung (Indonesia); Australian National University, Canberra (Australia)

    2015-04-24

    Bali is a popular tourist destination both for Indonesian and foreign visitors. However, Bali is located close to the collision zone between the Indo-Australian Plate and Eurasian Plate in the south and back-arc thrust off the northern coast of Bali resulted Bali prone to earthquake and tsunami. Tsunami hazard map is needed for better understanding of hazard level in a particular area and tsunami modeling is one of the most reliable techniques to produce hazard map. Tsunami modeling conducted using TUNAMI N2 and set for two tsunami sources scenarios which are subduction zone in the south of Bali and back thrust in the north of Bali. Tsunami hazard zone is divided into 3 zones, the first is a high hazard zones with inundation height of more than 3m. The second is a moderate hazard zone with inundation height 1 to 3m and the third is a low tsunami hazard zones with tsunami inundation heights less than 1m. Those 2 scenarios showed southern region has a greater potential of tsunami impact than the northern areas. This is obviously shown in the distribution of the inundated area in the south of Bali including the island of Nusa Penida, Nusa Lembongan and Nusa Ceningan is wider than in the northern coast of Bali although the northern region of the Nusa Penida Island more inundated due to the coastal topography.

  18. The Origin of Widespread Long-lived Volcanism Across the Galapagos Volcanic Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, J. M.; Stoffers, P.; Wijbrans, J. R.; Worthington, T. J.

    2005-12-01

    40Ar/39Ar ages for rocks dredged (SO144 PAGANINI expedition) and drilled (DSDP) from the Galapagos Volcanic Province (Cocos, Carnegie, Coiba and Malpelo aseismic ridges and associated seamounts) show evidence of 1) increasing age with distance from the Galapagos Archipelago, 2) long-lived episodic volcanism at many locations, and 3) broad overlapping regions of coeval volcanism. The widespread nature of synchronous volcanism across the Galapagos Volcanic Province (GVP) suggests a correspondingly large Galapagos hotspot melting anomaly (O'Connor et al., 2004). Development of the GVP via Cocos and Nazca plate migration and divergence over this broad melting anomaly would explain continued multiple phases of volcanism over millions of years following the initial onset of hotspot volcanism. The question arising from these observations is whether long-lived GVP episodic volcanism is equivalent to `rejuvenescent' or a `post-erosional' phase of volcanism that occurs hundreds of thousands or million years after the main shield-building phase documented on many mid-plate seamount chains, most notably along the Hawaiian-Emperor Seamount Chain? Thus, investigating the process responsible for long-lived episodic GVP volcanism provides the opportunity to evaluate this little understood process of rejuvenation in a physical setting very different to the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain (i.e. on/near spreading axis versus mid-plate). We consider here timing and geochemical information to test the various geodynamic models proposed to explain the origin of GVP hotspot volcanism, especially the possibility of rejuvenated phases that erupt long after initial shield-building.

  19. An interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction under conditions of uncertainty: a case study of Tristan da Cunha

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, A.; Barclay, J.; Simmons, P.; Loughlin, S.

    2014-07-01

    The uncertainty brought about by intermittent volcanic activity is fairly common at volcanoes worldwide. While better knowledge of any one volcano's behavioural characteristics has the potential to reduce this uncertainty, the subsequent reduction of risk from volcanic threats is only realised if that knowledge is pertinent to stakeholders and effectively communicated to inform good decision making. Success requires integration of methods, skills and expertise across disciplinary boundaries. This research project develops and trials a novel interdisciplinary approach to volcanic risk reduction on the remote volcanic island of Tristan da Cunha (South Atlantic). For the first time, volcanological techniques, probabilistic decision support and social scientific methods were integrated in a single study. New data were produced that (1) established no spatio-temporal pattern to recent volcanic activity; (2) quantified the high degree of scientific uncertainty around future eruptive scenarios; (3) analysed the physical vulnerability of the community as a consequence of their geographical isolation and exposure to volcanic hazards; (4) evaluated social and cultural influences on vulnerability and resilience; and (5) evaluated the effectiveness of a scenario planning approach, both as a method for integrating the different strands of the research and as a way of enabling on-island decision makers to take ownership of risk identification and management, and capacity building within their community. The paper provides empirical evidence of the value of an innovative interdisciplinary framework for reducing volcanic risk. It also provides evidence for the strength that comes from integrating social and physical sciences with the development of effective, tailored engagement and communication strategies in volcanic risk reduction.

  20. Detection and characterization of volcanic ash plumes over Lille during the Eyjafjallajökull eruption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mortier

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Routine sun-photometer and micro-lidar measurements were performed in Lille, northern France, in April and May 2010 during the Eyjafjallajökull volcanic eruption. The impact of such an eruption emphasized significance of hazards for human activities and importance of observations of the volcanic aerosol particles. This paper presents the main results of a joint micro-lidar/sun-photometer analysis performed in Lille, where volcanic ash plumes were observed during at least 22 days, whenever weather conditions permitted. Aerosol properties retrieved from automatic sun-photometer measurements (AERONET were strongly changed during the volcanic aerosol plumes transport over Lille. In most cases, the aerosol optical depth (AOD increased, whereas Ångström exponent decreased, thus indicating coarse-mode dominance in the volume size distribution. Moreover, the non-spherical fraction retrieved by AERONET significantly increased. The real part of the complex refractive index was up to 1.55 at 440 nm during the eruption, compared to background data of about 1.46 before the eruption. Collocated lidar data revealed that several aerosol layers were present between 2 and 5 km, all originating from the Iceland region as confirmed by backward trajectories. The volcanic ash AOD was derived from lidar extinction profiles and sun-photometer AOD, and its maximum was estimated around 0.37 at 532 nm on 18 April 2010. This value was observed at an altitude of 1700 m and corresponds to an ash mass concentration (AMC slightly higher than 1000 μg m−3 (±50%. An effective lidar ratio of ash particles of 48 sr was retrieved at 532 nm for 17 April during the early stages of the eruption, a value which agrees with several other studies carried out on this topic. Even though the accuracy of the retrievals is not as high as that obtained from reference multiwavelength lidar systems, this study demonstrates the opportunity of micro-lidar and sun-photometer joint data

  1. Reliability and Inequality Measures for the Weimal Distribution ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ). This article aimed at discussing both reliability and inequality measures from the Weimal distribution. The work has derived and discussed theoretically, expressions for the survival and hazard function of the Weimal distribution. The ordinary ...

  2. Hazard Analysis Database Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    GAULT, G.W.

    1999-10-13

    The Hazard Analysis Database was developed in conjunction with the hazard analysis activities conducted in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for US Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Safety Analysis Reports, for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR). The FSAR is part of the approved TWRS Authorization Basis (AB). This document describes, identifies, and defines the contents and structure of the TWRS FSAR Hazard Analysis Database and documents the configuration control changes made to the database. The TWRS Hazard Analysis Database contains the collection of information generated during the initial hazard evaluations and the subsequent hazard and accident analysis activities. The database supports the preparation of Chapters 3,4, and 5 of the TWRS FSAR and the USQ process and consists of two major, interrelated data sets: (1) Hazard Evaluation Database--Data from the results of the hazard evaluations; and (2) Hazard Topography Database--Data from the system familiarization and hazard identification.

  3. Volcanoes of México: An Interactive CD-ROM From the Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siebert, L.; Kimberly, P.; Calvin, C.; Luhr, J. F.; Kysar, G.

    2002-12-01

    The Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program is nearing completion of an interactive CD-ROM, the Volcanoes of México. This CD is the second in a series sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Geothermal Technologies to collate Smithsonian data on Quaternary volcanism as a resource for the geothermal community. It also has utility for those concerned with volcanic hazard and risk mitgation as well as an educational tool for those interested in Mexican volcanism. We acknowledge the significant contributions of many Mexican volcanologists to the eruption reports, data, and images contained in this CD, in particular those contributions of the Centro Nacional de Prevencion de Desastres (CENAPRED), the Colima Volcano Observatory of the University of Colima, and the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). The Volcanoes of México CD has a format similar to that of an earlier Smithsonian CD, the Volcanoes of Indonesia, but also shows Pleistocene volcanic centers and additional data on geothermal sites. A clickable map of México shows both Holocene and Pleistocene volcanic centers and provides access to individual pages on 67 volcanoes ranging from Cerro Prieto in Baja California to Tacaná on the Guatemalan border. These include geographic and geologic data on individual volcanoes (as well as a brief paragraph summarizing the geologic history) along with tabular eruption chronologies, eruptive characteristics, and eruptive volumes, when known. Volcano data are accessible from both geographical and alphabetical searches. A major component of the CD is more than 400 digitized images illustrating the morphology of volcanic centers and eruption processes and deposits, providing a dramatic visual primer to the country's volcanoes. Images of specific eruptions can be directly linked to from the eruption chronology tables. The Volcanoes of México CD includes monthly reports and associated figures and tables cataloging volcanic activity in M

  4. A proposal for performing software safety hazard analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, J.D.; Gallagher, J.M.

    1997-01-01

    Techniques for analyzing the safety and reliability of analog-based electronic protection systems that serve to mitigate hazards in process control systems have been developed over many years, and are reasonably understood. An example is the protection system in a nuclear power plant. The extension of these techniques to systems which include digital computers is not well developed, and there is little consensus among software engineering experts and safety experts on how to analyze such systems. One possible technique is to extend hazard analysis to include digital computer-based systems. Software is frequently overlooked during system hazard analyses, but this is unacceptable when the software is in control of a potentially hazardous operation. In such cases, hazard analysis should be extended to fully cover the software. A method for performing software hazard analysis is proposed in this paper. The method concentrates on finding hazards during the early stages of the software life cycle, using an extension of HAZOP

  5. Volcanism on differentiated asteroids (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, L.

    2013-12-01

    after passing through optically dense fire fountains. At low eruption rates and high volatile contents many clasts cooled to form spatter or cinder deposits, but at high eruption rates and low volatile contents most clasts landed hot and coalesced into lava ponds to feed lava flows. Lava flow thickness varies with surface slope, acceleration due to gravity, and lava yield strength induced by cooling. Low gravity on asteroids caused flows to be relatively thick which reduced the effects of cooling, and many flows probably attained lengths of tens of km and stopped as a result of cessation of magma supply from the reservoir rather than cooling. On most asteroids larger than 100 km radius experiencing more than ~30% mantle melting, the erupted volcanic deposits will have buried the original chondritic surface layers of the asteroid to such great depths that they were melted, or at least heavily thermally metamorphosed, leaving no present-day meteoritical evidence of their prior existence. Tidal stresses from close encounters between asteroids and proto-planets may have very briefly increased melting and melt migration speeds in asteroid interiors but only gross structural disruption would have greatly have changed volcanic histories.

  6. System Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Tae Jin

    2005-02-01

    This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

  7. Resolving the architecture of monogenetic feeder systems from exposures of extinct volcanic fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muirhead, J.; Van Eaton, A. R.; Re, G.; White, J. D. L.; Ort, M. H.

    2016-12-01

    Monogenetic volcanic fields pose hazards to a number of major cities worldwide. During an eruption, the evolution of the intrusive feeder network modulates eruption behavior and location, as well as the warning signs of impending activity. However, historical examples of monogenetic eruptions are rare, particularly those monitored with the modern tools required to constrain the geometry and interconnectivity of subsurface intrusive feeders (e.g., InSAR, GPS). Geologic exposures in extinct fields around the Colorado Plateau provide clues to the geometry of shallow intrusions (<1000 m depth) that feed monogenetic volcanoes. We present field- and satellite-based observations of exposed intrusions in the Hopi Buttes volcanic field (Arizona), which reveal that many eruptions were fed by interconnected dike-sill systems. Results from the Hopi Buttes show that volcanic cone alignment studies are biased to the identification of dike intrusions, and thereby neglect the important contributions of sills to shallow feeder systems. For example, estimates of intruded volumes in fields exhumed by uplift and erosion in Utah and Arizona show that sills make up 30 - 92% of the shallow intruded volume within 1000 m of the paleosurface. By transporting magma toward and away from eruptive conduits, these sills likely played a role in modulating eruption styles (e.g., explosive vs effusive) and controlling lateral vent migrations. Sill transitions at Hopi Buttes would have produced detectable surface uplifts, and illustrate the importance of geological studies for informing interpretations of geodetic and seismological data during volcanic crises.

  8. Modeling Volcanic Eruption Parameters by Near-Source Internal Gravity Waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripepe, M; Barfucci, G; De Angelis, S; Delle Donne, D; Lacanna, G; Marchetti, E

    2016-11-10

    Volcanic explosions release large amounts of hot gas and ash into the atmosphere to form plumes rising several kilometers above eruptive vents, which can pose serious risk on human health and aviation also at several thousands of kilometers from the volcanic source. However the most sophisticate atmospheric models and eruptive plume dynamics require input parameters such as duration of the ejection phase and total mass erupted to constrain the quantity of ash dispersed in the atmosphere and to efficiently evaluate the related hazard. The sudden ejection of this large quantity of ash can perturb the equilibrium of the whole atmosphere triggering oscillations well below the frequencies of acoustic waves, down to much longer periods typical of gravity waves. We show that atmospheric gravity oscillations induced by volcanic eruptions and recorded by pressure sensors can be modeled as a compact source representing the rate of erupted volcanic mass. We demonstrate the feasibility of using gravity waves to derive eruption source parameters such as duration of the injection and total erupted mass with direct application in constraining plume and ash dispersal models.

  9. A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmitri; Caudron, Corentin; Marzocchi, Warner; Suparjan

    2016-07-01

    Although most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000-2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010-2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.

  10. Volcanic harzards studies tailored to future populations and facilities: Yucca Mountain, Nevada, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keating, Gordon N.; Perry, Frank V.; Harrington, Charles; Krier, Don; Valentine, Greg A.; Gaffney, Edward; Cline, Mike

    2004-01-01

    The evaluation of impacts of potential volcanic eruptions on populations and facilities far in the future may involve detailed volcanological studies that differ from traditional hazards analyses. The proximity of Quaternary volcanoes to a proposed repository for disposal of the USA's high-level radioactive waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, has required in-depth study of probability and consequences of basaltic igneous activity. Because of the underground nature of the repository, evaluation of the potential effects of dike intrusion and interaction with the waste packages stored in underground tunnels (dnfts) as well as effects of eruption and ash dispersal have been important. These studies include analyses of dike propagation, dike-drift intersection, flow of magma into dnfts, heat and volcanic gas migration, atmospheric dispersal of tephra, and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra by surficial processes. Unlike traditional volcanic hazards studies that focus on impacts on housing, transportation, communications, etc. (to name a small subset), the igneous consequences studies at Yucca Mountain have focused on evaluation of igneous impacts on nuclear waste packages and implications for enhanced radioactive dose on a hypothetical future ((le) 10000 yrs) local population. Potential exposure pathways include groundwater (affected by in-situ degradation of waste packages by igneous heat and corrosion) and inhalation, ingestion, and external exposure due to deposition and redistribution of waste-contaminated tephra

  11. The attenuation of seismic intensity in the Etna region and comparison with other Italian volcanic districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Tuvè

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available A detailed analysis of the intensity attenuation in the Etna and other Italian volcanic districts, was performed using the most recent and complete intensity datasets. Attenuation laws were derived through empirical models fitting ?I (the difference between epicentral I0 and site Ix intensities average values versus hypocentral site distances by the least-square method. The huge amount of data available for the Etna area allowed us to elaborate bi-linear and logarithmic attenuation models, also taking source effects into account. Furthermore, the coefficients of the Grandori formulation have been re-calculated to verify the ones previously defined for seismic hazard purposes. Among the tested relationships, the logarithmic one is simple and fairly stable, so it was also adopted for the other volcanic Italian areas. The analysis showed different attenuation trends: on the one hand, Etna and Ischia show the highest decay of intensity (?I=4 in the first 20 km; on the contrary, the Aeolian Islands and Albani Hills present a slight intensity attenuation (?I=2 at 20 km from the hypocentre; finally, Vesuvius seems to have an intermediate behaviour between the two groups. The proposed regionalization gives a significantly better image of near-field damage in volcanic regions and is easily applicable to probabilistic seismic hazard analyses.

  12. Observation of the volcanic plume of Eyjafjallajoekull over continental Europe by MAX-DOAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yilmaz, S.; Bobrowski, N.; Friess, U.; Platt, U. [IUP, University of Heidelberg (Germany); Flentje, H. [DWD, Hohenpeissenberg (Germany); Hoermann, C.; Sihler, H. [IUP, University of Heidelberg (Germany); MPI, Mainz (Germany); Kern, C. [USGS, Vancouver (Canada); Wagner, T. [MPI, Mainz (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    The recent eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull Volcano (Iceland) and the emitted ash plume which disrupted commercial air traffic over Europe has led to an exhaustive debate on how to improve our ability to quantitatively determine the ash load in the atmosphere as a function of time and geographical location. Satellite instruments detecting ash and SO{sub 2} and ground-based LIDAR stations can help constrain atmospheric transport and meteorology models used to predict ash dispersion. However, MAX-DOAS represents an additional tool with considerable potential for the quantitative detection of elevated volcanic ash and SO{sub 2} plumes. It performs especially well during weather conditions in which satellites and LIDARs are impeded in their effectiveness, e.g. in the case of dense clouds above or below the plume, respectively. Here, the advantages and disadvantages of the DOAS technique are discussed, and its potential for monitoring of volcanic ash hazards explored. Results of ash and SO{sub 2} measurements of the Eyjafjallajoekull plume as it passed over Heidelberg are presented as an example of a positive detection of a highly diluted volcanic plume. Their low cost and complementary nature makes MAX-DOAS a promising technology in the field of aviation hazard detection and management.

  13. Volcanic Supersites as cross-disciplinary laboratories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provenzale, Antonello; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Giamberini, Mariasilvia; Pennisi, Maddalena; Puglisi, Giuseppe

    2017-04-01

    Volcanic Supersites, defined in the frame of the GEO-GSNL Initiative, are usually considered mainly for their geohazard and geological characteristics. However, volcanoes are extremely challenging areas from many other points of view, including environmental and climatic properties, ecosystems, hydrology, soil properties and biogeochemical cycling. Possibly, volcanoes are closer to early Earth conditions than most other types of environment. During FP7, EC effectively fostered the implementation of the European volcano Supersites (Mt. Etna, Campi Flegrei/Vesuvius and Iceland) through the MED-SUV and FUTUREVOLC projects. Currently, the large H2020 project ECOPOTENTIAL (2015-2019, 47 partners, http://www.ecopotential-project.eu/) contributes to GEO/GEOSS and to the GEO ECO Initiative, and it is devoted to making best use of remote sensing and in situ data to improve future ecosystem benefits, focusing on a network of Protected Areas of international relevance. In ECOPOTENTIAL, remote sensing and in situ data are collected, processed and used for a better understanding of the ecosystem dynamics, analysing and modelling the effects of global changes on ecosystem functions and services, over an array of different ecosystem types, including mountain, marine, coastal, arid and semi-arid ecosystems, and also areas of volcanic origin such as the Canary and La Reunion Islands. Here, we propose to extend the network of the ECOPOTENTIAL project to include active Volcanic Supersites, such as Mount Etna and other volcanic Protected Areas, and we discuss how they can be included in the framework of the ECOPOTENTIAL workflow. A coordinated and cross-disciplinary set of studies at these sites should include geological, biological, ecological, biogeochemical, climatic and biogeographical aspects, as well as their relationship with the antropogenic impact on the environment, and aim at the global analysis of the volcanic Earth Critical Zone - namely, the upper layer of the Earth

  14. Assessing the reliability of skilled performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougherty, E.M.; Collins, E.P.

    1996-01-01

    In some high-hazard military tasks, precision of motor skills is crucial to avoid a risk-sensitive drop or other mishap. Sparse data supports a basic level of reliability for this activity seemingly much lower than typical, individual action, slip-mode errors would yield. A typical occurrence failure rate seems to be of the order of 1 x 10 -5 per opportunity. A speculation is tendered that this represents a difference in kind; that the reliability of skills is a different taxon than previously called out in the typical scheme of human reliability

  15. Human vulnerability in volcanic environments: the case of Furnas, São Miguel, Azores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibben, Christopher; Chester, David K.

    1999-09-01

    The need to examine the vulnerability of people to natural hazards, in addition to the long-established requirement to study extreme events of nature, is being increasingly recognised within disaster research. Following a discussion of the nature of human vulnerability, we propose a framework for its analysis within the context of volcanic activity and we exemplify our approach by a detailed study of Furnas, a village located at the centre of a volcano with the same name on the island of São Miguel in the Azores. The methods used included in-depth interviews with permanent residents ( n=50), analysis of census records and an examination of the socio-economic history of the town. The vulnerability of an individual to volcanic hazards involves a complex interaction of elements which, in addition to the usual factors taken into account in programmes of hazard reduction (e.g., the nature of the physical threat, location and economic situation), also comprises his or her social context and a number of physiological and psychological considerations. It is argued, further, that both generally and in the case of Furnas, the root causes of vulnerability lie in the history and development of society. Individual decision making is fundamental but takes place within and cannot be separated from this social context. Vulnerability analysis allows the identification of points where intervention may be successful in reducing the likelihood of suffering in a society. It avoids the problem of people's unexpected reactions to invention leading to a changing or even increasing level of vulnerability, by studying society rather than just one aspect of volcanic hazard in isolation.

  16. DOE Hazardous Waste Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyman, L.D.; Craig, R.B.

    1985-01-01

    The goal of the DOE Hazardous Waste Program is to support the implementation and improvement of hazardous-chemical and mixed-radioactive-waste management such that public health, safety, and the environment are protected and DOE missions are effectively accomplished. The strategy for accomplishing this goal is to define the character and magnitude of hazardous wastes emanating from DOE facilities, determine what DOE resources are available to address these problems, define the regulatory and operational constraints, and develop programs and plans to resolve hazardous waste issues. Over the longer term the program will support the adaptation and application of technologies to meet hazardous waste management needs and to implement an integrated, DOE-wide hazardous waste management strategy. 1 reference, 1 figure

  17. Radar image and data fusion for natural hazards characterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Zhong; Dzurisin, Daniel; Jung, Hyung-Sup; Zhang, Jixian; Zhang, Yonghong

    2010-01-01

    Fusion of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images through interferometric, polarimetric and tomographic processing provides an all - weather imaging capability to characterise and monitor various natural hazards. This article outlines interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) processing and products and their utility for natural hazards characterisation, provides an overview of the techniques and applications related to fusion of SAR/InSAR images with optical and other images and highlights the emerging SAR fusion technologies. In addition to providing precise land - surface digital elevation maps, SAR - derived imaging products can map millimetre - scale elevation changes driven by volcanic, seismic and hydrogeologic processes, by landslides and wildfires and other natural hazards. With products derived from the fusion of SAR and other images, scientists can monitor the progress of flooding, estimate water storage changes in wetlands for improved hydrological modelling predictions and assessments of future flood impacts and map vegetation structure on a global scale and monitor its changes due to such processes as fire, volcanic eruption and deforestation. With the availability of SAR images in near real - time from multiple satellites in the near future, the fusion of SAR images with other images and data is playing an increasingly important role in understanding and forecasting natural hazards.

  18. Geologic aspects of seismic hazards assessment at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, southeastern Idaho

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.P.; Hackett, W.R.; Rodgers, D.W.

    1989-01-01

    The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), located on the northwestern side of the Eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), lies in an area influenced by two distinct geologic provinces. The ESRP province is a northeast-trending zone of late Tertiary and Quaternary volcanism which transects the northwest-trending, block-fault mountain ranges of the Basin and Range province. An understanding of the interaction of these two provinces is important for realistic geologic hazards assessment. Of particular importance for seismic hazards analysis is the relationship of volcanic rift zones on the ESRP to basin-and-range faults north of the plain. The Arco Rift Zone, a 20-km-long belt of deformation and volcanism on the plain just west of the INEL, is colinear with the basin-and-range Lost River fault. Recent field studies have demonstrated that Arco Rift Zone deformation is typical of that induced by dike injection in other volcanic rift zones. The deformation is characterized by a predominance of dilational fissuring with less extensive development of faults and grabens. Cumulative vertical displacements over the past 0.6 Ma are an order of magnitude lower than those associated with the Arco Segment of the Lost River fault to the northwest. The evidence suggests that the northeast-directed extension that produces the block fault mountains of the Basin and Range is expressed by dike injection and volcanic rift zone development in the ESRP. Seismicity associated with dike injection during rift zone development is typically of low magnitude and would represent only minor hazard compared to that associated with the block faulting. Since the ESRP responds to extension in a manner distinct from basin-and-range faulting, it is not appropriate to consider the volcanic rift zones as extensions of basin-and-range faults for seismic hazard analysis

  19. Radon and its hazards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang Guilan

    2002-01-01

    The author describes basic physical and chemical properties of radon and the emanation, introduces methods of radon measurement, expounds the hazards of non-mine radon accumulation to the health of human being and the protection, as well as the history how the human being recognizes the hazards of radon through the specific data and examples, and finally proposes protecting measures to avoid the hazards of radon to the health of human being, and to do ecologic evaluation of environments

  20. WHC natural phenomena hazards mitigation implementation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conrads, T.J.

    1996-09-11

    Natural phenomena hazards (NPH) are unexpected acts of nature which pose a threat or danger to workers, the public or to the environment. Earthquakes, extreme winds (hurricane and tornado),snow, flooding, volcanic ashfall, and lightning strike are examples of NPH at Hanford. It is the policy of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to design, construct and operate DOE facilitiesso that workers, the public and the environment are protected from NPH and other hazards. During 1993 DOE, Richland Operations Office (RL) transmitted DOE Order 5480.28, ``Natural Phenomena Hazards Mitigation,`` to Westinghouse Hanford COmpany (WHC) for compliance. The Order includes rigorous new NPH criteria for the design of new DOE facilities as well as for the evaluation and upgrade of existing DOE facilities. In 1995 DOE issued Order 420.1, ``Facility Safety`` which contains the same NPH requirements and invokes the same applicable standards as Order 5480.28. It will supersede Order 5480.28 when an in-force date for Order 420.1 is established through contract revision. Activities will be planned and accomplished in four phases: Mobilization; Prioritization; Evaluation; and Upgrade. The basis for the graded approach is the designation of facilities/structures into one of five performance categories based upon safety function, mission and cost. This Implementation Plan develops the program for the Prioritization Phase, as well as an overall strategy for the implemention of DOE Order 5480.2B.

  1. Transport of hazardous goods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1989-01-01

    The course 'Transport of hazardous goods' was held in Berlin in November 1988 in cooperation with the Bundesanstalt fuer Materialforschung und -pruefung. From all lecturs, two are recorded separately: 'Safety of tank trucks - requirements on the tank, development possibiities of active and passive safety' and 'Requirements on the transport of radioactive materials - possible derivations for other hazardous goods'. The other lectures deal with hazardous goods law, requirements on packinging, risk assessment, railroad transport, hazardous goods road network, insurance matters, EC regulations, and waste tourism. (HSCH) [de

  2. Disposal of hazardous wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnhart, B.J.

    1978-01-01

    The Fifth Life Sciences Symposium entitled Hazardous Solid Wastes and Their Disposal on October 12 through 14, 1977 was summarized. The topic was the passage of the National Resources Conservation and Recovery Act of 1976 will force some type of action on all hazardous solid wastes. Some major points covered were: the formulation of a definition of a hazardous solid waste, assessment of long-term risk, list of specific materials or general criteria to specify the wastes of concern, Bioethics, sources of hazardous waste, industrial and agricultural wastes, coal wastes, radioactive wastes, and disposal of wastes

  3. Welcoming a monster to the world: Myths, oral tradition, and modern societal response to volcanic disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cashman, Katharine V.; Cronin, Shane J.

    2008-10-01

    Volcanic eruptions can overwhelm all senses of observers in their violence, spectacle and sheer incredibility. When an eruption is catastrophic or unexpected, neither individuals nor communities can easily assimilate the event into their world view. Psychological studies of disaster aftermaths have shown that trauma can shake the very foundations of a person's faith and trigger a search - supernatural, religious, or scientific - for answers. For this reason, the ability to rapidly comprehend a traumatic event by "accepting" the catastrophe as part the observer's world represents an important component of community resilience to natural hazards. A relationship with the event may be constructed by adapting existing cosmological, ancestral, or scientific frameworks, as well as through creative and artistic expression. In non-literate societies, communal perceptions of an event may be transformed into stories that offer myth-like explanations. As these stories make their way into oral traditions, they often undergo major changes to allow transmission through generations and, in some cases, to serve political or religious purposes. Disaster responses in literate societies are no different, except that they are more easily recorded and therefore are less prone to change over time. Here we explore ways in which the language, imagery and metaphor used to describe volcanic events may link disparate societies (both present and past) in their search for understanding of volcanic catastrophes. Responses to modern eruptions (1980 Mount St Helens, USA, and 1995-present Soufriere Hills, Montserrat) provide a baseline for examining the progression to older historic events that have already developed oral traditions (1886 Tarawera, New Zealand) and finally to oral traditions many hundreds of years old in both the Pacific Northwest US and New Zealand (NZ). We see that repeated volcanism over many generations produces rich webs of cosmology and history surrounding volcanoes. NZ Maori

  4. Indirect Climatic Effects of Major Volcanic Eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmann, D. J.

    2007-05-01

    The direct effects on climate, related to atmospheric emissions to the atmosphere following major volcanic eruptions, are well-known although the sparseness of such eruptions make detailed study on the range of such variations difficult. In general terms, infrared absorption by volcanic emissions to the stratosphere result in local heating early in the event when gaseous sulfur compounds exist. This early period is followed by gas to particle conversion, on a time scale of 1-2 months, promoting the formation of sulfuric acid-water droplets. Coagulation and droplet growth result in the "volcanic stratospheric aerosol layer" which is related to the predominant direct climatic effect of large eruptions, the cooling of the troposphere by backscattering of solar visible radiation to space with a recovery time scale of 1-2 years. In this paper we will discuss some of the less-known "indirect" effects of the volcanic stratospheric aerosol on climate. We label them indirect as they act on climate through intermediary atmospheric constituents. The intermediaries in the volcanic indirect climatic effect are generally atmospheric greenhouse gases or other atmospheric gases and conditions which affect greenhouse gases. For example, cooling of the troposphere following major eruptions reduces the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide related to respiration by the terrestrial biosphere. In addition, redirection of part of the direct solar beam into diffuse radiation by the volcanic stratospheric aerosol stimulates plant photosynthesis, further reducing the carbon dioxide growth rate. The growth rate of the second-most important atmospheric greenhouse gas, methane, is also affected by volcanic emissions. Volcanic stratospheric aerosol particles provide surface area which catalyzes heterogeneous chemical reactions thus stimulating removal of stratospheric ozone, also a greenhouse gas. Although major droughts usually related to ENSO events have opposite effects on carbon

  5. Ages of plains volcanism on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauber, Ernst; Jagert, Felix; Broz, Petr

    2010-05-01

    Plain-style volcanism [1] is widespread in the Tharsis and Elysium volcanic provinces on Mars, [2,3]. Detailed images and topographic data reveal the morphology and topography of clusters of low shields and associated lava flows. The landforms of plains volcanism on Mars have all well-known terrestrial analogues in basaltic volcanic regions, such as Hawaii, Iceland, and in particular the Snake River Plains [4]. The very gentle flank slopes (J. (1981) Icarus, 45, 586-601. [3] Hodges C.A. and Moore H.J. (1994) Atlas of volcanic features on Mars: USGS Prof. Paper 1534, 194 p. [4] Hauber E. et al. (2009) J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 185, 69-95. [5] Wilson L. et al. (2009) J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 185, 28-46. [6] Vaucher, J. et al. (2009) Icarus 204, 418-442. [7] Baratoux D. et al. (2009) J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 185, 47-68. [8] Bleacher J.E. et al. (2009) J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 185, 96-102. [9] Ivanov B.A. (2001) Space Sci. Rev. 96, 87-104. [10] Hartmann W.H. and Neukum G. (2001) Space Sci. Rev. 96, 165-194 [11] Kneissl T. et al. (2010) LPS XVI, submitted. [12] Michael, G.G. and Neukum G. (2010) Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., in press. . [13] Malin M.C. et al. (2007) JGR 112, E05S04, doi: 10.1029/2006JE002808.

  6. Active Volcanic Eruptions on Io

    Science.gov (United States)

    1996-01-01

    Six views of the volcanic plume named Prometheus, as seen against Io's disk and near the bright limb (edge) of the satellite by the SSI camera on the Galileo spacecraft during its second (G2) orbit of Jupiter. North is to the top of each frame. To the south-southeast of Prometheus is another bright spot that appears to be an active plume erupting from a feature named Culann Patera. Prometheus was active 17 years ago during both Voyager flybys, but no activity was detected by Voyager at Culann. Both of these plumes were seen to glow in the dark in an eclipse image acquired by the imaging camera during Galileo's first (G1) orbit, and hot spots at these locations were detected by Galileo's Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer.The plumes are thought to be driven by heating sulfur dioxide in Io's subsurface into an expanding fluid or 'geyser'. The long-lived nature of these eruptions requires that a substantial supply of sulfur dioxide must be available in Io's subsurface, similar to groundwater. Sulfur dioxide gas condenses into small particles of 'snow' in the expanding plume, and the small particles scatter light and appear bright at short wavelengths. The images shown here were acquired through the shortest-wavelength filter (violet) of the Galileo camera. Prometheus is about 300 km wide and 75 km high and Culann is about 150 km wide and less than 50 km high. The images were acquired on September 4, 1996 at a range of 2,000,000 km (20 km/pixel resolution). Prometheus is named after the Greek fire god and Culann is named after the Celtic smith god.The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA manages the Galileo mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, DC. JPL is an operating division of California Institute of Technology (Caltech).This image and other images and data received from Galileo are posted on the World Wide Web, on the Galileo mission home page at URL http://galileo.jpl.nasa.gov. Background information and educational context for the images can

  7. Abstract on the Effective validation of both new and existing methods for the observation and forecasting of volcanic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sathnur, Ashwini

    2017-04-01

    Validation of the Existing products of the Remote Sensing instruments Review Comment Number 1 Ground - based instruments and space - based instruments are available for remote sensing of the Volcanic eruptions. Review Comment Number 2 The sunlight spectrum appears over the volcanic geographic area. This sunlight is reflected with the image of the volcano geographic area, to the satellite. The satellite captures this emitted spectrum of the image and further calculates the occurrences of the volcanic eruption. Review Comment Number 3 This computation system derives the presence and detection of sulphur dioxide and Volcanic Ash in the emitted spectrum. The temperature of the volcanic region is also measured. If these inputs derive the possibility of occurrence of an eruption, then the data is manually captured by the system for further usage and hazard mitigation. Review Comment Number 4 The instrument is particularly important in capturing the volcanogenic signal. This capturing operation should be carried out during the appropriate time of the day. This is carried out ideally at the time of the day when the reflected image spectra is best available. Capturing the data is not advisable to be performed at the night time, as the sunlight spectra is at its minimum. This would lead to erroneous data interpretation, as there is no sunlight for reflection of the volcanic region. Thus leading to the least capture of the emitted light spectra. Review Comment Number 5 An ideal area coverage of the spectrometer is mandatory. This is basically for the purpose of capturing the right area of data, in order to precisely derive the occurrence of a volcanic eruption. The larger the spatial resolution, there would be a higher capture of the geographic region, and this would lead to a lesser precise data capture. This would lead to missing details in the data capture. Review Comment Number 6 Ideal qualities for the remote sensing instrument are mentioned below:- Minimum "false

  8. Avoiding the Hazards of Hazardous Waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, Richard

    1996-01-01

    Under a 1980 law, colleges and universities can be liable for cleanup of hazardous waste on properties, in companies, and related to stocks they invest in or are given. College planners should establish clear policy concerning gifts, investigate gifts, distance university from business purposes, sell real estate gifts quickly, consult a risk…

  9. Center for volcanic and tectonic studies, Department of Geoscience, Univ. of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV. Annual report No. 69, October 1, 1991--September 30, 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, E.I.

    1992-01-01

    The annual report of the Center for Volcanic and Tectonic Studies (CVTS) contains a series of papers, maps, and reprints that review the progress made by the CVTS between October 1, 1991 and December 31, 1992. During this period CVTS staff focused on several topics that had direct relevance to volcanic hazards related to the proposed high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. These topics included: (1) The role of the mantle during regional extension. (2) The structural controls and emplacement mechanisms of Pliocene/Quaternary basaltic centers and dikes. (3) The detailed geochemistry of individual volcanic centers in Crater Flat, Nevada. (4) Estimating the probability of disruption of the proposed repository by volcanic eruption (this topic is being studied by Dr. C-H. Ho at UNLV)

  10. The global magnitude-frequency relationship for large explosive volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rougier, Jonathan; Sparks, R. Stephen J.; Cashman, Katharine V.; Brown, Sarah K.

    2018-01-01

    For volcanoes, as for other natural hazards, the frequency of large events diminishes with their magnitude, as captured by the magnitude-frequency relationship. Assessing this relationship is valuable both for the insights it provides about volcanism, and for the practical challenge of risk management. We derive a global magnitude-frequency relationship for explosive volcanic eruptions of at least 300Mt of erupted mass (or M4.5). Our approach is essentially empirical, based on the eruptions recorded in the LaMEVE database. It differs from previous approaches mainly in our conservative treatment of magnitude-rounding and under-recording. Our estimate for the return period of 'super-eruptions' (1000Gt, or M8) is 17ka (95% CI: 5.2ka, 48ka), which is substantially shorter than previous estimates, indicating that volcanoes pose a larger risk to human civilisation than previously thought.

  11. Geohazards (floods and landslides in the Ndop plain, Cameroon volcanic line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wotchoko Pierre

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Ndop Plain, located along the Cameroon Volcanic Line (CVL, is a volcano-tectonic plain, formed by a series of tectonic movements, volcanic eruptions and sedimentation phases. Floods (annually and landslides (occasionally occur with devastating environmental effects. However, this plain attracts a lot of inhabitants owing to its fertile alluvial soils. With demographic explosion in the plain, the inhabitants (143,000 people tend to farm and inhabit new zones which are prone to these geohazards. In this paper, we use field observations, laboratory analyses, satellite imagery and complementary methods using appropriate software to establish hazard (flood and landslide maps of the Ndop Plain. Natural factors as well as anthropogenic factors are considered.

  12. Localization of Volcanic Activity: Topographic Effects on Dike Propagation, Eruption and COnduit Formation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E.S. Gaffney; B. Damjanac

    2006-05-12

    Magma flow in a dike rising in a crack whose strike runs from a highland or a ridge to an adjacent lowland has been modeled to determine the effect of topography on the flow. It is found that there is a distinct tendency for the flow to be diverted away from the highland end of the strike toward the lowland. Separation of the geometric effect of the topography from its effect on lateral confining stresses on the crack indicates that both contribute to the effect but that the effect of stress is less important. Although this analysis explains a tendency for volcanic eruptions to occur in low lands, it does not preclude eruptions on highlands. The particular configuration modeled mimics topography around the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, so that the results may indicate some reduction in the volcanic hazard to the site.

  13. Localization of Volcanic Activity: Topographic Effects on Dike Propagation, Eruption and Conduit Formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    E.S. Gaffney; B. Damjanac

    2006-01-01

    Magma flow in a dike rising in a crack whose strike runs from a highland or a ridge to an adjacent lowland has been modeled to determine the effect of topography on the flow. It is found that there is a distinct tendency for the flow to be diverted away from the highland end of the strike toward the lowland. Separation of the geometric effect of the topography from its effect on lateral confining stresses on the crack indicates that both contribute to the effect but that the effect of stress is less important. Although this analysis explains a tendency for volcanic eruptions to occur in low lands, it does not preclude eruptions on highlands. The particular configuration modeled mimics topography around the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, so that the results may indicate some reduction in the volcanic hazard to the site

  14. Handbook of hazardous waste management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metry, A.A.

    1980-01-01

    The contents of this work are arranged so as to give the reader a detailed understanding of the elements of hazardous waste management. Generalized management concepts are covered in Chapters 1 through 5 which are entitled: Introduction, Regulations Affecting Hazardous Waste Management, Comprehensive Hazardous Waste Management, Control of Hazardous Waste Transportation, and Emergency Hazardous Waste Management. Chapters 6 through 11 deal with treatment concepts and are entitled: General Considerations for Hazardous Waste Management Facilities, Physical Treatment of Hazardous Wastes, Chemical Treatment of Hazardous Wastes, Biological Treatment of Hazardous Wastes, Incineration of Hazardous Wastes, and Hazardous Waste Management of Selected Industries. Chapters 12 through 15 are devoted to ultimate disposal concepts and are entitled: Land Disposal Facilities, Ocean Dumping of Hazardous Wastes, Disposal of Extremely Hazardous Wastes, and Generalized Criteria for Hazardous Waste Management Facilities

  15. Venus - Volcanic features in Atla Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    This Magellan image from the Atla region of Venus shows several types of volcanic features and superimposed surface fractures. The area in the image is approximately 350 kilometers (217 miles) across, centered at 9 degrees south latitude, 199 degrees east longitude. Lava flows emanating from circular pits or linear fissures form flower-shaped patterns in several areas. A collapse depression approximately 20 kilometers by 10 kilometers (12 by 6 miles) near the center of the image is drained by a lava channel approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) long. Numerous surface fractures and graben (linear valleys) criss-cross the volcanic deposits in north to northeast trends. The fractures are not buried by the lavas, indicating that the tectonic activity post-dates most of the volcanic activity.

  16. Ozone depletion following future volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric Klobas, J.; Wilmouth, David M.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Anderson, James G.; Salawitch, Ross J.

    2017-07-01

    While explosive volcanic eruptions cause ozone loss in the current atmosphere due to an enhancement in the availability of reactive chlorine following the stratospheric injection of sulfur, future eruptions are expected to increase total column ozone as halogen loading approaches preindustrial levels. The timing of this shift in the impact of major volcanic eruptions on the thickness of the ozone layer is poorly known. Modeling four possible climate futures, we show that scenarios with the smallest increase in greenhouse gas concentrations lead to the greatest risk to ozone from heterogeneous chemical processing following future eruptions. We also show that the presence in the stratosphere of bromine from natural, very short-lived biogenic compounds is critically important for determining whether future eruptions will lead to ozone depletion. If volcanic eruptions inject hydrogen halides into the stratosphere, an effect not considered in current ozone assessments, potentially profound reductions in column ozone would result.

  17. Geochemistry of volcanic series of Aragats province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meliksetyan, Kh.B.

    2012-01-01

    In this contribution we discuss geochemical and isotope characteristics of volcanism of the Aragats volcanic province and possible petrogenetical models of magma generation in collision zone of Armenian highland. We talk about combination of some specific features of collision related volcanism such as dry and high temperature conditions of magma generation, that demonstrate some similarities to intraplate-like petrogenesis and presence of mantle source enriched by earlier subductions, indicative to island-arc type magma generation models. Based on comprehensive analysis of isotope and geochemical data and some published models of magma generation beneath Aragats we lead to a petrogenetic model of origin of Aragats system to be a result of magma mixture between mantle originated mafic magma with felsic, adakite-type magmas

  18. Hazardous solvent substitution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Twitchell, K.E.

    1995-01-01

    This article is an overview of efforts at INEL to reduce the generation of hazardous wastes through the elimination of hazardous solvents. To aid in their efforts, a number of databases have been developed and will become a part of an Integrated Solvent Substitution Data System. This latter data system will be accessible through Internet

  19. Relative Hazard Calculation Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DL Strenge; MK White; RD Stenner; WB Andrews

    1999-01-01

    The methodology presented in this document was developed to provide a means of calculating the RH ratios to use in developing useful graphic illustrations. The RH equation, as presented in this methodology, is primarily a collection of key factors relevant to understanding the hazards and risks associated with projected risk management activities. The RH equation has the potential for much broader application than generating risk profiles. For example, it can be used to compare one risk management activity with another, instead of just comparing it to a fixed baseline as was done for the risk profiles. If the appropriate source term data are available, it could be used in its non-ratio form to estimate absolute values of the associated hazards. These estimated values of hazard could then be examined to help understand which risk management activities are addressing the higher hazard conditions at a site. Graphics could be generated from these absolute hazard values to compare high-hazard conditions. If the RH equation is used in this manner, care must be taken to specifically define and qualify the estimated absolute hazard values (e.g., identify which factors were considered and which ones tended to drive the hazard estimation)

  20. Hazardous Waste Manifest System

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s hazardous waste manifest system is designed to track hazardous waste from the time it leaves the generator facility where it was produced, until it reaches the off-site waste management facility that will store, treat, or dispose of the waste.

  1. AMSAA Reliability Growth Guide

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Broemm, William

    2000-01-01

    ... has developed reliability growth methodology for all phases of the process, from planning to tracking to projection. The report presents this methodology and associated reliability growth concepts.

  2. Tropical Volcanic Soils From Flores Island, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hikmatullah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Soils that are developed intropical region with volcanic parent materials have many unique properties, and high potential for agricultural use.The purpose of this study is to characterize the soils developed on volcanic materials from Flores Island, Indonesia,and to examine if the soils meet the requirements for andic soil properties. Selected five soils profiles developed fromandesitic volcanic materials from Flores Island were studied to determine their properties. They were compared intheir physical, chemical and mineralogical characteristics according to their parent material, and climatic characteristicdifferent. The soils were developed under humid tropical climate with ustic to udic soil moisture regimes withdifferent annual rainfall. The soils developed from volcanic ash parent materials in Flores Island showed differentproperties compared to the soils derived from volcanic tuff, even though they were developed from the sameintermediary volcanic materials. The silica contents, clay mineralogy and sand fractions, were shown as the differences.The different in climatic conditions developed similar properties such as deep solum, dark color, medium texture, andvery friable soil consistency. The soils have high organic materials, slightly acid to acid, low to medium cationexchange capacity (CEC. The soils in western region have higher clay content and showing more developed than ofthe eastern region. All the profiles meet the requirements for andic soil properties, and classified as Andisols order.The composition of sand mineral was dominated by hornblende, augite, and hypersthenes with high weatherablemineral reserves, while the clay fraction was dominated by disordered kaolinite, and hydrated halloysite. The soilswere classified into subgroup as Thaptic Hapludands, Typic Hapludands, and Dystric Haplustands

  3. Offsite transportation hazards assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burnside, M.E.

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the emergency preparedness Hazards Assessment for the offsite transportation of hazardous material from the Hanford Site. The assessment is required by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Order 151.1. Offsite transportation accidents are categorized using the DOE system to assist communication within the DOE and assure that appropriate assistance is provided to the people in charge at the scene. The assistance will initially include information about the load and the potential hazards. Local authorities will use the information to protect the public following a transportation accident. This Hazards Assessment will focus on the material being transported from the Hanford Site. Shipments coming to Hanford are the responsibility of the shipper and the carrier and, therefore, are not included in this Hazards Assessment, unless the DOE elects to be the shipper of record

  4. Tellurium in active volcanic environments: Preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milazzo, Silvia; Calabrese, Sergio; D'Alessandro, Walter; Brusca, Lorenzo; Bellomo, Sergio; Parello, Francesco

    2014-05-01

    Tellurium is a toxic metalloid and, according to the Goldschmidt classification, a chalcophile element. In the last years its commercial importance has considerably increased because of its wide use in solar cells, thermoelectric and electronic devices of the last generation. Despite such large use, scientific knowledge about volcanogenic tellurium is very poor. Few previous authors report result of tellurium concentrations in volcanic plume, among with other trace metals. They recognize this element as volatile, concluding that volcanic gases and sulfur deposits are usually enriched with tellurium. Here, we present some results on tellurium concentrations in volcanic emissions (plume, fumaroles, ash leachates) and in environmental matrices (soils and plants) affected by volcanic emissions and/or deposition. Samples were collected at Etna and Vulcano (Italy), Turrialba (Costa Rica), Miyakejima, Aso, Asama (Japan), Mutnovsky (Kamchatka) at the crater rims by using common filtration techniques for aerosols (polytetrafluoroethylene filters). Filters were both eluted with Millipore water and acid microwave digested, and analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Volcanic ashes emitted during explosive events on Etna and Copahue (Argentina) were analyzed for tellurium bulk composition and after leaching experiments to evaluate the soluble fraction of tellurium. Soils and leaves of vegetation were also sampled close to active volcanic vents (Etna, Vulcano, Nisyros, Nyiragongo, Turrialba, Gorely and Masaya) and investigated for tellurium contents. Preliminary results showed very high enrichments of tellurium in volcanic emissions comparing with other volatile elements like mercury, arsenic, thallium and bismuth. This suggests a primary transport in the volatile phase, probably in gaseous form (as also suggested by recent studies) and/or as soluble salts (halides and/or sulfates) adsorbed on the surface of particulate particles and ashes. First

  5. Volcanic Eruptions and Climate: Outstanding Research Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan

    2016-04-01

    Large volcanic eruptions inject sulfur gases into the stratosphere, which convert to sulfate aerosols with an e-folding residence time of about one year. The radiative and chemical effects of this aerosol cloud produce responses in the climate system. Based on observations after major eruptions of the past and experiments with numerical models of the climate system, we understand much about their climatic impact, but there are also a number of unanswered questions. Volcanic eruptions produce global cooling, and are an important natural cause of interannual, interdecadal, and even centennial-scale climate change. One of the most interesting volcanic effects is the "winter warming" of Northern Hemisphere continents following major tropical eruptions. During the winter in the Northern Hemisphere following every large tropical eruption of the past century, surface air temperatures over North America, Europe, and East Asia were warmer than normal, while they were colder over Greenland and the Middle East. This pattern and the coincident atmospheric circulation correspond to the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. While this response is observed after recent major eruptions, most state-of-the-art climate models have trouble simulating winter warming. Why? High latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere, while also producing global cooling, do not have the same impact on atmospheric dynamics. Both tropical and high latitude eruptions can weaken the Indian and African summer monsoon, and the effects can be seen in past records of flow in the Nile and Niger Rivers. Since the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, there have been no large eruptions that affected climate, but the cumulative effects of small eruptions over the past decade have had a small effect on global temperature trends. Some important outstanding research questions include: How much seasonal, annual, and decadal predictability is possible following a large volcanic eruption? Do

  6. Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping

    1992-01-01

    An examination of the Northern Hemisphere winter surface temperature patterns after the 12 largest volcanic eruptions from 1883-1992 shows warming over Eurasia and North America and cooling over the Middle East which are significant at the 95-percent level. This pattern is found in the first winter after tropical eruptions, in the first or second winter after midlatitude eruptions, and in the second winter after high latitude eruptions. The effects are independent of the hemisphere of the volcanoes. An enhanced zonal wind driven by heating of the tropical stratosphere by the volcanic aerosols is responsible for the regions of warming, while the cooling is caused by blocking of incoming sunlight.

  7. A new Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn (VERDI): Application to El Hierro Island (Canary Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, S.; Becerril, L.; Martí, J.

    2014-11-01

    One of the most important issues in modern volcanology is the assessment of volcanic risk, which will depend - among other factors - on both the quantity and quality of the available data and an optimum storage mechanism. This will require the design of purpose-built databases that take into account data format and availability and afford easy data storage and sharing, and will provide for a more complete risk assessment that combines different analyses but avoids any duplication of information. Data contained in any such database should facilitate spatial and temporal analysis that will (1) produce probabilistic hazard models for future vent opening, (2) simulate volcanic hazards and (3) assess their socio-economic impact. We describe the design of a new spatial database structure, VERDI (Volcanic managEment Risk Database desIgn), which allows different types of data, including geological, volcanological, meteorological, monitoring and socio-economic information, to be manipulated, organized and managed. The root of the question is to ensure that VERDI will serve as a tool for connecting different kinds of data sources, GIS platforms and modeling applications. We present an overview of the database design, its components and the attributes that play an important role in the database model. The potential of the VERDI structure and the possibilities it offers in regard to data organization are here shown through its application on El Hierro (Canary Islands). The VERDI database will provide scientists and decision makers with a useful tool that will assist to conduct volcanic risk assessment and management.

  8. In-flight dynamics of volcanic ballistic projectiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taddeucci, J.; Alatorre-Ibargüengoitia, M. A.; Cruz-Vázquez, O.; Del Bello, E.; Scarlato, P.; Ricci, T.

    2017-09-01

    Centimeter to meter-sized volcanic ballistic projectiles from explosive eruptions jeopardize people and properties kilometers from the volcano, but they also provide information about the past eruptions. Traditionally, projectile trajectory is modeled using simplified ballistic theory, accounting for gravity and drag forces only and assuming simply shaped projectiles free moving through air. Recently, collisions between projectiles and interactions with plumes are starting to be considered. Besides theory, experimental studies and field mapping have so far dominated volcanic projectile research, with only limited observations. High-speed, high-definition imaging now offers a new spatial and temporal scale of observation that we use to illuminate projectile dynamics. In-flight collisions commonly affect the size, shape, trajectory, and rotation of projectiles according to both projectile nature (ductile bomb versus brittle block) and the location and timing of collisions. These, in turn, are controlled by ejection pulses occurring at the vent. In-flight tearing and fragmentation characterize large bombs, which often break on landing, both factors concurring to decrease the average grain size of the resulting deposits. Complex rotation and spinning are ubiquitous features of projectiles, and the related Magnus effect may deviate projectile trajectory by tens of degrees. A new relationship is derived, linking projectile velocity and size with the size of the resulting impact crater. Finally, apparent drag coefficient values, obtained for selected projectiles, mostly range from 1 to 7, higher than expected, reflecting complex projectile dynamics. These new perspectives will impact projectile hazard mitigation and the interpretation of projectile deposits from past eruptions, both on Earth and on other planets.

  9. The case for a Supersite for real-time GNSS hazard monitoring on a global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bar-Sever, Y. E.

    2017-12-01

    Real-time measurements from many hundreds of GNSS tracking sites around the world are publicly available today, and the amount of streaming data is steadily increasing as national agencies densify their local and global infrastructure for natural hazard monitoring and a variety of geodetic, cadastral, and other civil applications. Thousands of such sites can soon be expected on a global scale. It is a challenge to manage and make optimal use of this massive amount of real-time data. We advocate the creation of Supersite(s), in the parlance of the U.N. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (https://www.earthobservations.org/geoss.php), to generate high level real-time data products from the raw GNSS measurements from all available sources (many thousands of sites). These products include: • High rate, real-time positioning time series for assessing rapid crustal motion due to Earthquakes, volcanic activities, land slides, etc. • Co-seismic displacement to help resolve earthquake mechanism and moment magnitude • Real-time total electron content (TEC) fluctuations to augment Dart buoy in detecting and tracking tsunamis • Aggregation of the many disparate raw data dispensation servers (Casters)Recognizing that natural hazards transcend national boundaries in terms of direct and indirect (e.g., economical, security) impact, the benefits from centralized, authoritative processing of GNSS measurements is manifold: • Offers a one-stop shop to less developed nations and institutions for raw and high-level products, in support of research and applications • Promotes the installation of tracking sites and the contribution of data from nations without the ability to process the data • Reduce dependency on local responsible agencies impacted by a natural disaster • Reliable 24/7 operations, independent of voluntary, best effort contributions from good-willing scientific organizationsThe JPL GNSS Real-Time Earthquake and Tsunami (GREAT) Alert has been

  10. International Collaboration on Building Local Technical Capacities for Monitoring Volcanic Activity at Pacaya Volcano, Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escobar-Wolf, R. P.; Chigna, G.; Morales, H.; Waite, G. P.; Oommen, T.; Lechner, H. N.

    2015-12-01

    Pacaya volcano is a frequently active and potentially dangerous volcano situated in the Guatemalan volcanic arc. It is also a National Park and a major touristic attraction, constituting an important economic resource for local municipality and the nearby communities. Recent eruptions have caused fatalities and extensive damage to nearby communities, highlighting the need for risk management and loss reduction from the volcanic activity. Volcanic monitoring at Pacaya is done by the Instituto Nacional de Sismologia, Vulcanologia, Meteorologia e Hidrologia (INSIVUMEH), instrumentally through one short period seismic station, and visually by the Parque Nacional Volcan de Pacaya y Laguna de Calderas (PNVPLC) personnel. We carry out a project to increase the local technical capacities for monitoring volcanic activity at Pacaya. Funding for the project comes from the Society of Exploration Geophysicists through the Geoscientists Without Borders program. Three seismic and continuous GPS stations will be installed at locations within 5 km from the main vent at Pacaya, and one webcam will aid in the visual monitoring tasks. Local educational and outreach components of the project include technical workshops on data monitoring use, and short thesis projects with the San Carlos University in Guatemala. A small permanent exhibit at the PNVPLC museum or visitor center, focusing on the volcano's history, hazards and resources, will also be established as part of the project. The strategy to involve a diverse group of local collaborators in Guatemala aims to increase the chances for long term sustainability of the project, and relies not only on transferring technology but also the "know-how" to make that technology useful. Although not a primary research project, it builds on a relationship of years of joint research projects at Pacaya between the participants, and could be a model of how to increase the broader impacts of such long term collaboration partnerships.

  11. Biomimetic thermal barrier coating in jet engine to resist volcanic ash deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Wenjia; Major, Zsuzsanna; Schulz, Uwe; Muth, Tobias; Lavallée, Yan; Hess, Kai-Uwe; Dingwell, Donald B.

    2017-04-01

    The threat of volcanic ash to aviation safety is attracting extensive attention when several commercial jet aircraft were damaged after flying through volcanic ash clouds from the May 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helen in Washington, U.S. and especially after the air traffic disruption in 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption. A major hazard presented by volcanic ash to aircraft is linked to the wetting and spreading of molten ash droplets on engine component surfaces. Due to the fact ash has a lower melting point, around 1100 °C, than the gas temperature in the hot section (between 1400 to 2000 °C), this cause the ash to melt and potentially stick to the internal components (e.g., combustor and turbine blades), this cause the ash to melt and potentially stick to the internal components of the engine creating, substantial damage or even engine failure after ingestion. Here, inspiring form the natural surface of lotus leaf (exhibiting extreme water repellency, known as 'lotus effect'), we firstly create the multifunctional surface thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) by producing a hierarchical structure with femtosecond laser pulses. In detail, we investigate the effect of one of primary femtosecond laser irradiation process parameter (scanning speed) on the hydrophobicity of water droplets onto the two kinds of TBCs fabricated by electron-beam physical vapor deposition (EB-PVD) and air plasma spray (APS), respectively as well as their corresponding to morphology. It is found that, comparison with the original surface (without femtosecond laser ablation), all of the irradiated samples demonstrate more significant hydrophobic properties due to nanostructuring. On the basis of these preliminary room-temperature results, the wettability of volcanic ash droplets will be analysed at the high temperature to constrain the potential impact of volcanic ash on the jet engines.

  12. A Bayesian method to rank different model forecasts of the same volcanic ash cloud: Chapter 24

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denlinger, Roger P.; Webley, P.; Mastin, Larry G.; Schwaiger, Hans F.

    2012-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions often spew fine ash high into the atmosphere, where it is carried downwind, forming long ash clouds that disrupt air traffic and pose a hazard to air travel. To mitigate such hazards, the community studying ash hazards must assess risk of ash ingestion for any flight path and provide robust and accurate forecasts of volcanic ash dispersal. We provide a quantitative and objective method to evaluate the efficacy of ash dispersal estimates from different models, using Bayes theorem to assess the predictions that each model makes about ash dispersal. We incorporate model and measurement uncertainty and produce a posterior probability for model input parameters. The integral of the posterior over all possible combinations of model inputs determines the evidence for each model and is used to compare models. We compare two different types of transport models, an Eulerian model (Ash3d) and a Langrangian model (PUFF), as applied to the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland. The evidence for each model benefits from common physical characteristics of ash dispersal from an eruption column and provides a measure of how well each model forecasts cloud transport. Given the complexity of the wind fields, we find that the differences between these models depend upon the differences in the way the models disperse ash into the wind from the source plume. With continued observation, the accuracy of the estimates made by each model increases, increasing the efficacy of each model’s ability to simulate ash dispersal.

  13. Morphology, volcanism, and mass wasting in Crater Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacon, C.R.; Gardner, J.V.; Mayer, L.A.; Buktenica, M.W.; Dartnell, P.; Ramsey, D.W.; Robinson, J.E.

    2002-01-01

    . Thereafter, a gradual, climatically modulated rise in lake level to the present 1883 m produced a series of beaches culminating in a modern wave-cut platform, commonly ~40 m wide, where suitable material is present. The new survey reveals landforms that result from intermediate-composition volcanism in rising water, delineates mass wasting and sediment transport into a restricted basin, and yields a more accurate postcaldera history leading to improved assessment of volcanic hazards.

  14. Geology of the Ugashik-Mount Peulik Volcanic Center, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Thomas P.

    2004-01-01

    The Ugashik-Mount Peulik volcanic center, 550 km southwest of Anchorage on the Alaska Peninsula, consists of the late Quaternary 5-km-wide Ugashik caldera and the stratovolcano Mount Peulik built on the north flank of Ugashik. The center has been the site of explosive volcanism including a caldera-forming eruption and post-caldera dome-destructive activity. Mount Peulik has been formed entirely in Holocene time and erupted in 1814 and 1845. A large lava dome occupies the summit crater, which is breached to the west. A smaller dome is perched high on the southeast flank of the cone. Pyroclastic-flow deposits form aprons below both domes. One or more sector-collapse events occurred early in the formation of Mount Peulik volcano resulting in a large area of debris-avalanche deposits on the volcano's northwest flank. The Ugashik-Mount Peulik center is a calcalkaline suite of basalt, andesite, dacite, and rhyolite, ranging in SiO2 content from 51 to 72 percent. The Ugashik-Mount Peulik magmas appear to be co-genetic in a broad sense and their compositional variation has probably resulted from a combination of fractional crystallization and magma-mixing. The most likely scenario for a future eruption is that one or more of the summit domes on Mount Peulik are destroyed as new magma rises to the surface. Debris avalanches and pyroclastic flows may then move down the west and, less likely, east flanks of the volcano for distances of 10 km or more. A new lava dome or series of domes would be expected to form either during or within some few years after the explosive disruption of the previous dome. This cycle of dome disruption, pyroclastic flow generation, and new dome formation could be repeated several times in a single eruption. The volcano poses little direct threat to human population as the area is sparsely populated. The most serious hazard is the effect of airborne volcanic ash on aircraft since Mount Peulik sits astride heavily traveled air routes connecting the U

  15. A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

  16. Evidences for a volcanic province in the Central Indian Basin

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Iyer, S.D.; Sudhakar, M.

    Based on various lines of evidence such as the widespread occurrence of basalts, pumice, volcanic glass shards and their transformational products (zeolites, palagonites, and smectite-rich sediments), we suggest the presence of a volcanic province...

  17. State-of-the-art for evaluating the potential impact of tectonism and volcanism on a radioactive waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1980-01-01

    Most estimates of the time required for safe isolation of radioactive wastes from the biosphere range from 100,000 to 1,000,000 years. For such long time spans, it is necessary to assess the potential effects of geologic processes such as volcanism and tectonic activity on the integrity of geologic repositories. Predictions of geologic phenomena can be based on probabilistic models, which assume a random distribution of events. The necessary historic and geologic records are rarely available to provide an adequate data base for such predictions. The observed distribution of volcanic and tectonic activity is not random, and appears to be controlled by extremely complex deterministic processes. The advent of global plate tectonic theory in the past two decades has been a giant step toward understanding these processes. At each potential repository site, volcanic and tectonic processes should be evaluated to provide the most thorough possible understanding of those deterministic processes. Based on this knowledge, judgements will have to be made as to whether or not the volcanic and tectonic processes pose unacceptable risk to the integrity of the repository. This report describes the potential hazards associated with volcanism and tectonism, and the means for evaluating these processes

  18. Hazard screening application guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-06-01

    The basic purpose of hazard screening is to group precesses, facilities, and proposed modifications according to the magnitude of their hazards so as to determine the need for and extent of follow on safety analysis. A hazard is defined as a material, energy source, or operation that has the potential to cause injury or illness in human beings. The purpose of this document is to give guidance and provide standard methods for performing hazard screening. Hazard screening is applied to new and existing facilities and processes as well as to proposed modifications to existing facilities and processes. The hazard screening process evaluates an identified hazards in terms of the effects on people, both on-site and off-site. The process uses bounding analyses with no credit given for mitigation of an accident with the exception of certain containers meeting DOT specifications. The process is restricted to human safety issues only. Environmental effects are addressed by the environmental program. Interfaces with environmental organizations will be established in order to share information

  19. High-Precision and Low Latency RT-GNSS Processed Data for Diverse Geophysical and Natural Hazard Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mencin, David; Hodgkinson, Kathleen; Sievers, Charlie; David, Phillips; Charles, Meertens; Glen, Mattioli

    2017-04-01

    UNAVCO has been providing infrastructure and support for solid-earth sciences and earthquake natural hazards for the past two decades. Recent advances in GNSS technology and data processing are now providing position solutions with centimeter-level precision at high-rate (>1 Hz) and low latency (i.e. the time required for data to arrive for analysis, in this case less than 1 second). These data have the potential to improve our understanding in diverse areas of geophysics including properties of seismic, volcanic, magmatic and tsunami sources, and thus profoundly transform rapid event characterization and warning. Scientific and operational applications also include glacier and ice sheet motions; tropospheric modeling; and space weather. These areas of geophysics represent a spectrum of research fields, including geodesy, seismology, tropospheric weather, space weather and natural hazards. Processed Real-Time GNSS (RT-GNSS) data will require formats and standards that allow this broad and diverse community to use these data and associated meta-data in existing research infrastructure. These advances have critically highlighted the difficulties associated with merging data and metadata between scientific disciplines. Even seemingly very closely related fields such as geodesy and seismology, which both have rich histories of handling large volumes of data and metadata, do not go together well in any automated way. Community analysis strategies, or lack thereof, such as treatment of error prove difficult to address and are reflected in the data and metadata. In addition, these communities have differing security, accessibility and reliability requirements. We propose some solutions to the particular problem of making RT-GNSS processed solution data and metadata accessible to multiply scientific and natural hazard communities. Importantly, we discuss the roadblocks encounter and solved and those that remain to be addressed.

  20. Assessing natural hazard risk using images and data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccullough, H. L.; Dunbar, P. K.; Varner, J. D.; Mungov, G.

    2012-12-01

    Photographs and other visual media provide valuable pre- and post-event data for natural hazard assessment. Scientific research, mitigation, and forecasting rely on visual data for risk analysis, inundation mapping and historic records. Instrumental data only reveal a portion of the whole story; photographs explicitly illustrate the physical and societal impacts from the event. Visual data is rapidly increasing as the availability of portable high resolution cameras and video recorders becomes more attainable. Incorporating these data into archives ensures a more complete historical account of events. Integrating natural hazards data, such as tsunami, earthquake and volcanic eruption events, socio-economic information, and tsunami deposits and runups along with images and photographs enhances event comprehension. Global historic databases at NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) consolidate these data, providing the user with easy access to a network of information. NGDC's Natural Hazards Image Database (ngdc.noaa.gov/hazardimages) was recently improved to provide a more efficient and dynamic user interface. It uses the Google Maps API and Keyhole Markup Language (KML) to provide geographic context to the images and events. Descriptive tags, or keywords, have been applied to each image, enabling easier navigation and discovery. In addition, the Natural Hazards Map Viewer (maps.ngdc.noaa.gov/viewers/hazards) provides the ability to search and browse data layers on a Mercator-projection globe with a variety of map backgrounds. This combination of features creates a simple and effective way to enhance our understanding of hazard events and risks using imagery.

  1. Airborne geophysical radon hazard mapping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, P.

    1993-01-01

    Shales containing uranium pose a radon health hazard even when covered by several meters of overburden. Such an alum shale in southern Norway has been mapped with a joint helicopter borne electromagnetic (HEM) and radiometric survey. Results are compared with ground spectrometer, radon emanometer and radon gas measurements in dwellings, and a model to predict radon gas concentrations from the airborne data is developed. Since the shale is conductive, combining the HEM data with the radiometric channel allows the shale to be mapped with greater reliability than if the radiometric channel were used alone. Radiometrically more active areas which do not pose a radon gas hazard can thus be separated from the shales which do. The ground follow-up work consisted of spectrometer and radon emanometer measurements over a uranium anomaly coinciding with a conductor. The correlation between the airborne uranium channel, the ground uranium channel and emanometry is extremely good, indicating that airborne geophysics can, in this case, be used to predict areas having a high radon potential. Contingency tables comparing both radon exhalation and concentration in dwellings with the airborne uranium data show a strong relationship exists between exhalation and the airborne data and while a relationship between concentration and the airborne data is present, but weaker

  2. STARS software tool for analysis of reliability and safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poucet, A.; Guagnini, E.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on the STARS (Software Tool for the Analysis of Reliability and Safety) project aims at developing an integrated set of Computer Aided Reliability Analysis tools for the various tasks involved in systems safety and reliability analysis including hazard identification, qualitative analysis, logic model construction and evaluation. The expert system technology offers the most promising perspective for developing a Computer Aided Reliability Analysis tool. Combined with graphics and analysis capabilities, it can provide a natural engineering oriented environment for computer assisted reliability and safety modelling and analysis. For hazard identification and fault tree construction, a frame/rule based expert system is used, in which the deductive (goal driven) reasoning and the heuristic, applied during manual fault tree construction, is modelled. Expert system can explain their reasoning so that the analyst can become aware of the why and the how results are being obtained. Hence, the learning aspect involved in manual reliability and safety analysis can be maintained and improved

  3. Improving volcanic ash forecasts with ensemble-based data assimilation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fu, Guangliang

    2017-01-01

    The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption had serious consequences to civil aviation. This has initiated a lot of research on volcanic ash forecasting in recent years. For forecasting the volcanic ash transport after eruption onset, a volcanic ash transport and diffusion model (VATDM) needs to be

  4. Apollo 15 mare volcanism: constraints and problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delano, J.W.

    1985-01-01

    The Apollo 15 landing site contains more volcanics in the form of crystalline basalts and pristine glasses, which form the framework for all models dealing with the mantle beneath that site. Major issues on the petrology of the mare source regions beneath that portion of Mare Imbrium are summarized

  5. Monogenetic volcanism: personal views and discussion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Németh, K.; Kereszturi, G.

    2015-11-01

    Monogenetic volcanism produces small-volume volcanoes with a wide range of eruptive styles, lithological features and geomorphic architectures. They are classified as spatter cones, scoria (or cinder) cones, tuff rings, maars (maar-diatremes) and tuff cones based on the magma/water ratio, dominant eruption styles and their typical surface morphotypes. The common interplay between internal, such as the physical-chemical characteristics of magma, and external parameters, such as groundwater flow, substrate characteristics or topography, plays an important role in creating small-volume volcanoes with diverse architectures, which can give the impression of complexity and of similarities to large-volume polygenetic volcanoes. In spite of this volcanic facies complexity, we defend the term "monogenetic volcano" and highlight the term's value, especially to express volcano morphotypes. This study defines a monogenetic volcano, a volcanic edifice with a small cumulative volume (typically ≤1 km3) that has been built up by one continuous, or many discontinuous, small eruptions fed from one or multiple magma batches. This definition provides a reasonable explanation of the recently recognized chemical diversities of this type of volcanism.

  6. Payenia volcanic province, southern Mendoza, Argentina

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søager, Nina; Holm, Paul Martin; Llambias, Eduardo Jorge

    2013-01-01

    The Pleistocene to Holocene Payenia volcanic province is a backarc region of 60,000 km2 in Mendoza, Argentina, which is dominated by transitional to alkaline basalts and trachybasalts. We present major and trace element compositions of 139 rocks from this area of which the majority are basaltic...

  7. X-ray microanalysis of volcanic ash

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kearns, S L; Buse, B

    2012-01-01

    The 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland demonstrated the disruptive nature of high-level volcanic ash emissions to the world's air traffic. The chemistry of volcanic material is complex and varied. Different eruptions yield both compositional and morphological variation. Equally a single eruption, such as that in Iceland will evolve over time and may potentially produce a range of volcanic products of varying composition and morphology. This variability offers the petrologist the opportunity to derive a tracer to the origins both spatially and temporally of a single particle by means of electron microbeam analysis. EPMA of volcanic ash is now an established technique for this type of analysis as used in tephrachronology. However, airborne paniculate material may, as in the case of Eyjafjallajökull, result in a particle size that is too small and too dispersed for preparation of standard EPMA mounts. Consequently SEM-EDS techniques are preferred for this type of quantitative analysis . Results of quantitative SEM-EDS analysis yield data with a larger precision error than EPMA yet sufficient to source the original eruption. Uncoated samples analyzed using variable pressure SEM yield slightly poorer results at modest pressures.

  8. Amazonian volcanism inside Valles Marineris on Mars

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brož, Petr; Hauber, E.; Wray, J. J.; Michael, G.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 473, September (2017), s. 122-130 ISSN 0012-821X Institutional support: RVO:67985530 Keywords : Mars * Valles Marineris * volcanism * scoria cone * hydrothermal activity Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure OBOR OECD: Volcanology Impact factor: 4.409, year: 2016

  9. The Elusive Evidence of Volcanic Lightning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genareau, K; Gharghabi, P; Gafford, J; Mazzola, M

    2017-11-14

    Lightning strikes are known to morphologically alter and chemically reduce geologic formations and deposits, forming fulgurites. A similar process occurs as the result of volcanic lightning discharge, when airborne volcanic ash is transformed into lightning-induced volcanic spherules (LIVS). Here, we adapt the calculations used in previous studies of lightning-induced damage to infrastructure materials to determine the effects on pseudo-ash samples of simplified composition. Using laboratory high-current impulse experiments, this research shows that within the lightning discharge channel there is an ideal melting zone that represents roughly 10% or less of the total channel radius at which temperatures are sufficient to melt the ash, regardless of peak current. The melted ash is simultaneously expelled from the channel by the heated, expanding air, permitting particles to cool during atmospheric transport before coming to rest in ash fall deposits. The limited size of this ideal melting zone explains the low number of LIVS typically observed in volcanic ash despite the frequent occurrence of lightning during explosive eruptions.

  10. Sources of Quaternary volcanism in the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic fields, Madagascar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasoazanamparany, C.; Widom, E.; Kuentz, D. C.; Raharimahefa, T.; Rakotondrazafy, F. M. A.; Rakotondravelo, K. M.

    2017-12-01

    We present new major and trace element and Sr, Nd, Pb and Os isotope data for Quaternary basaltic lavas and tephra from the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic fields, representing the most recent volcanism in Madagascar. Mafic magmas from Itasy and Ankaratra exhibit significant inter- and intra-volcanic field geochemical heterogeneity. The Itasy eruptive products range in composition from foidite to phonotephrite whereas Ankaratra lavas range from basanite to trachybasalts. Trace element signatures of samples from both volcanic fields are very similar to those of ocean island basalts (OIB), with significant enrichment in Nb and Ta, depletion in Rb, Cs, and K, and relatively high Nb/U and Ce/Pb. However, the Itasy volcanic rocks show enrichment relative to those of Ankaratra in most incompatible elements, indicative of a more enriched source and/or lower degrees of partial melting. Significant inter- and intra-volcanic field heterogeneity is also observed in Sr, Nd, Pb and Os isotope signatures. The Itasy volcanic rocks generally have less radiogenic Sr and Nd isotopic ratios but more radiogenic Pb isotopic signatures than the Ankaratra volcanic field. Together, the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic rocks form a well-defined negative correlation in Sr vs. Pb isotopes that could be attributed to lithospheric contamination or variable degrees of mixing between distinct mantle sources. However, the lack of correlation between isotopes and indices of crustal contamination (e.g. MgO and Nb/U) are inconsistent with shallow lithospheric contamination, and instead suggest mixing between compositionally distinct mantle sources. Furthermore, although Sr-Pb isotope systematics are apparently consistent with mixing between two different sources, distinct trends in Sr vs. Nd isotopes displayed by samples from Itasy and Ankaratra, respectively, argue for more complex source mixing involving three or more sources. The current data demonstrate that although the Itasy and Ankaratra volcanic

  11. Statistical analysis of dispersal and deposition patterns of volcanic emissions from Mt. Sakurajima, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulidis, Alexandros P.; Takemi, Tetsuya; Shimizu, Atsushi; Iguchi, Masato; Jenkins, Susanna F.

    2018-04-01

    With the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland) in 2010, interest in the transport of volcanic ash after moderate to major eruptions has increased with regards to both the physical and the emergency hazard management aspects. However, there remain significant gaps in the understanding of the long-term behaviour of emissions from volcanoes with long periods of activity. Mt. Sakurajima (Japan) provides us with a rare opportunity to study such activity, due to its eruptive behaviour and dense observation network. In the 6-year period from 2009 to 2015, the volcano was erupting at an almost constant rate introducing approximately 500 kt of ash per month to the atmosphere. The long-term characteristics of the transport and deposition of ash and SO2 in the area surrounding the volcano are studied here using daily surface observations of suspended particulate matter (SPM) and SO2 and monthly ashfall values. Results reveal different dispersal patterns for SO2 and volcanic ash, suggesting volcanic emissions' separation in the long-term. Peak SO2 concentrations at different locations on the volcano vary up to 2 orders of magnitude and decrease steeply with distance. Airborne volcanic ash increases SPM concentrations uniformly across the area surrounding the volcano, with distance from the vent having a secondary effect. During the period studied here, the influence of volcanic emissions was identifiable both in SO2 and SPM concentrations which were, at times, over the recommended exposure limits defined by the Japanese government, European Union and the World Health Organisation. Depositional patterns of volcanic ash exhibit elements of seasonality, consistent with previous studies. Climatological and topographic effects are suspected to impact the deposition of volcanic ash away from the vent: for sampling stations located close to complex topographical elements, sharp changes in the deposition patterns were observed, with ash deposits for neighbouring stations as close as

  12. Microphysical Properties of Alaskan Volcanic Ash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puthukkudy, A.; Espinosa, R.; Rocha Lima, A.; Remer, L.; Colarco, P. R.; Whelley, P.; Krotkov, N. A.; Young, K.; Dubovik, O.; Wallace, K.; Martins, J. V.

    2017-12-01

    Volcanic ash has the potential to cause a variety of severe problems for human health and the environment. Therefore, effective monitoring of the dispersion and fallout from volcanic ash clouds and characterization of the aerosol particle properties are essential. One way to acquire information from volcanic clouds is through satellite remote sensing: such images have greater coverage than ground-based observations and can present a "big picture" perspective. A challenge of remote sensing is that assumptions of certain properties of the target are often a pre-requisite for making accurate and quantitative retrievals. For example, detailed information about size distribution, sphericity, and optical properties of the constituent matter is needed or must be assumed. The same kind of information is also needed for atmospheric transport models to properly simulate the dispersion and fallout of volcanic ash. Presented here is a laboratory method to determine the microphysical and optical properties of volcanic ash samples collected from two Alaskan volcanoes with markedly different compositions. Our method uses a Polarized Imaging Nephelometer (PI-Neph) and a system that re-suspends the particles in an air flow. The PI-Neph measures angular light scattering and polarization of the re-suspended particles from 3o to 175o in scattering angle, with an angular resolution of 1o . Primary measurements include phase function and polarized phase function at three wavelengths (445nm, 532nm, and 661nm). Size distribution, sphericity, and complex refractive index are retrieved indirectly from the PI-Neph measurements using the GRASP (Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties) inversion algorithm. We report the results of this method applied to samples from the Mt. Okmok (2008) and Mt. Katmai (1912) volcanic eruptions. To our knowledge, this is the first time direct measurements of phase matrix elements of ash from Mt. Okmok and Mt. Katmai have been reported. Retrieved

  13. Fluids in volcanic and geothermal systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigvaldason, Gudmundur E.

    Mineral buffers control the composition of most volatile components of magmas and dissolved species in geothermal fluids. The only element which occurs in significant quantities in volcanic and geothermal fluids and is not controlled by mineral buffers is chlorine. It is argued that in absence of marine influence, geothermal fluids reflect the chlorine content of associated magmatic fluids. The chlorine content of oceanic volcanic rocks has a positive correlation with elements, which are believed to indicate a heterogenous source region. Since the source is generally believed to be the Earth's mantle, the implication is that the mantle is heterogenous with regard to chlorine and other volatiles. Such heterogeneities would have important consequences for genesis and distribution of ore. All major magma types of the oceanic environment occur in Iceland. Their spatial distribution is closely related to a volcanotectonic pattern, suggesting crustal control. A geophysical model of crustal accretion in a rift zone is used in conjunction with classical petrology to predict geochemical processes in a rift zone crust. The model has two kinematic parameters-drift rate and subsidence rate-which combined describe trajectories of mass particles deposited on the surface. When considering in conjunction with thermal gradients of the rift zone a series of metamorphic reactions and chemical fractionation processes are bound to occur, eventually resulting in a layering of the oceanic crust. The physical parameters result in a derived variable, rift zone residence time, which depends on the width of a rift zone. Long residence times in a wide rift zone lead to multistage recycling of material. Other properties of the model, based on geometric arrangement of productive fissure swarms within a rift zone, explain off-rift volcanism as directly related to rift zone processes, either as plate trapped magmatic domains or a transgressive thermal anomaly into an older crust. Off

  14. Preliminary review and summary of the potential for tectonic, seismic, and volcanic activity at the Nevada Test Site defense waste disposal site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metcalf, L.A.

    1983-03-01

    A change from compressional to extensional tectonics, which occurred about 17 m.y. ago, marks the emergence of the present tectonic regime in the southern Great Basin. Crustal extension is continuing at the present time, oriented in a NW-SE direction in the NTS region. Concurrently with the onset of crustal extension a system of NW- and NE-trending shear zones developed, along which mutual offset has occurred. Present seismic and tectonic activity in the NTS region is concentrated along the intersections of the shear zones and in areas of deep basin formation. Natural historic seismicity of the NTS region has been low to moderate. Seismic hazard assessments suggest a maximum magnitude 6-7 earthquake, associated with a maximum peak acceleration of 0.7 to 0.9 g, is probable for the NTS. A return period of 12,700 to 15,000 y for the maximum peak acceleration indicates a relatively low seismic hazard. Silicic volcanism in the NTS region was active from 16 to 6 m.y. ago, followed by a transition to basaltic volcanism. The tectonic settings most favorable for Quaternary basaltic activity are areas of young basin-range extension, caldera ring fracture zones, and intersections of conjugate shear zones. Probability calculations for the Yucca Mountain waste repository result in a volcanic disruption hazard of 10 - 8 to 10 - 9 /y. This value is extremely low and is probably representative of the hazard at Frenchman Flat. However, due to its tectonic setting, Frenchman Flat may be an area conducive to future basaltic volcanism; further investigation is needed to properly assess volcanic hazard

  15. Using faults for PSHA in a volcanic context: the Etna case (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzaro, Raffaele; D'Amico, Salvatore; Gee, Robin; Pace, Bruno; Peruzza, Laura

    2016-04-01

    At Mt. Etna volcano (Southern Italy), recurrent volcano-tectonic earthquakes affect the urbanised areas, with an overall population of about 400,000 and with important infrastructures and lifelines. For this reason, seismic hazard analyses have been undertaken in the last decade focusing on the capability of local faults to generate damaging earthquakes especially in the short-term (30-5 yrs); these results have to be intended as complementary to the regulatory seismic hazard maps, and devoted to establish priority in the seismic retrofitting of the exposed municipalities. Starting from past experience, in the framework of the V3 Project funded by the Italian Department of Civil Defense we performed a fully probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by using an original definition of seismic sources and ground-motion prediction equations specifically derived for this volcanic area; calculations are referred to a new brand topographic surface (Mt. Etna reaches more than 3,000 m in elevation, in less than 20 km from the coast), and to both Poissonian and time-dependent occurrence models. We present at first the process of defining seismic sources that includes individual faults, seismic zones and gridded seismicity; they are obtained by integrating geological field data with long-term (the historical macroseismic catalogue) and short-term earthquake data (the instrumental catalogue). The analysis of the Frequency Magnitude Distribution identifies areas in the volcanic complex, with a- and b-values of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship representative of different dynamic processes. Then, we discuss the variability of the mean occurrence times of major earthquakes along the main Etnean faults estimated by using a purely geologic approach. This analysis has been carried out through the software code FISH, a Matlab® tool developed to turn fault data representative of the seismogenic process into hazard models. The utilization of a magnitude-size scaling relationship

  16. Managing the effects of accelerated glacial melting on volcanic collapse and debris flows: Planchon-Peteroa Volcano, Southern Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tormey, Daniel

    2010-11-01

    Glaciated mountains are among the most sensitive environments to climatic changes, and recent work has shown that large-scale glacial melting, including at the end of the Pleistocene, caused a significant increase in the incidence of large volcanic sector collapse and debris flows on then-active volcanoes. With current accelerated rates of glacial melting, glaciated active volcanoes are at an increasing risk of sector collapse, debris flow and landslide. These catastrophic events are Earth's most damaging erosion phenomenon, causing extensive property damage and loss of life. This paper illustrates these effects in well-studied settings, focusing on the end-Pleistocene to Holocene glaciovolcanic growth and destruction of the cone of the active volcano Planchon-Peteroa in the Andean Southern Volcanic Zone at latitude 35° 15' S, along the border between Chile and Argentina. The development of the volcano over the last 14,000 years illustrates how glacial melting and magmatic activity