WorldWideScience

Sample records for reliable prognostic information

  1. Nottingham Prognostic Index in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer: a reliable prognostic tool?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albergaria, André; Ricardo, Sara; Milanezi, Fernanda; Carneiro, Vítor; Amendoeira, Isabel; Vieira, Daniella; Cameselle-Teijeiro, Jorge; Schmitt, Fernando

    2011-01-01

    A breast cancer prognostic tool should ideally be applicable to all types of invasive breast lesions. A number of studies have shown histopathological grade to be an independent prognostic factor in breast cancer, adding prognostic power to nodal stage and tumour size. The Nottingham Prognostic Index has been shown to accurately predict patient outcome in stratified groups with a follow-up period of 15 years after primary diagnosis of breast cancer. Clinically, breast tumours that lack the expression of Oestrogen Receptor, Progesterone Receptor and Human Epidermal growth factor Receptor 2 (HER2) are identified as presenting a 'triple-negative' phenotype or as triple-negative breast cancers. These poor outcome tumours represent an easily recognisable prognostic group of breast cancer with aggressive behaviour that currently lack the benefit of available systemic therapy. There are conflicting results on the prevalence of lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis in triple-negative breast cancer patients but it is currently accepted that triple-negative breast cancer does not metastasize to axillary nodes and bones as frequently as the non-triple-negative carcinomas, favouring instead, a preferentially haematogenous spread. Hypothetically, this particular tumour dissemination pattern would impair the reliability of using Nottingham Prognostic Index as a tool for triple-negative breast cancer prognostication. The present study tested the effectiveness of the Nottingham Prognostic Index in stratifying breast cancer patients of different subtypes with special emphasis in a triple-negative breast cancer patient subset versus non- triple-negative breast cancer. We demonstrated that besides the fact that TNBC disseminate to axillary lymph nodes as frequently as luminal or HER2 tumours, we also showed that TNBC are larger in size compared with other subtypes and almost all grade 3. Additionally, survival curves demonstrated that these prognostic factors are

  2. Designing reliability information flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petkova, Valia T.; Lu Yuan; Ion, Roxana A.; Sander, Peter C.

    2005-01-01

    It is well-known [Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 75 (2002) 295] that in modern development processes it is essential to have an information flow structure that facilitates fast feedback from product users (customers) to departments at the front end, in particular development and production. As information is only relevant if it is used when taking decisions, this paper presents a guideline for building field feedback information flows that facilitate the decision taking during the product creation and realisation process. The guideline takes into consideration that the type of decisions depends on the span-of-control, therefore following Parsons [Structure and Process in Modern Societies (1990)] the span-of-control is subdivided into the following three levels: strategic, tactic, and executive. The guideline is illustrated with a case in which it is used for analysing the quality of existing field feedback flows

  3. Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumann, Johann; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Kulkarni, Chetan

    2015-01-01

    With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

  4. Distinguishing prognostic and predictive biomarkers: An information theoretic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sechidis, Konstantinos; Papangelou, Konstantinos; Metcalfe, Paul D; Svensson, David; Weatherall, James; Brown, Gavin

    2018-05-02

    The identification of biomarkers to support decision-making is central to personalised medicine, in both clinical and research scenarios. The challenge can be seen in two halves: identifying predictive markers, which guide the development/use of tailored therapies; and identifying prognostic markers, which guide other aspects of care and clinical trial planning, i.e. prognostic markers can be considered as covariates for stratification. Mistakenly assuming a biomarker to be predictive, when it is in fact largely prognostic (and vice-versa) is highly undesirable, and can result in financial, ethical and personal consequences. We present a framework for data-driven ranking of biomarkers on their prognostic/predictive strength, using a novel information theoretic method. This approach provides a natural algebra to discuss and quantify the individual predictive and prognostic strength, in a self-consistent mathematical framework. Our contribution is a novel procedure, INFO+, which naturally distinguishes the prognostic vs predictive role of each biomarker and handles higher order interactions. In a comprehensive empirical evaluation INFO+ outperforms more complex methods, most notably when noise factors dominate, and biomarkers are likely to be falsely identified as predictive, when in fact they are just strongly prognostic. Furthermore, we show that our methods can be 1-3 orders of magnitude faster than competitors, making it useful for biomarker discovery in 'big data' scenarios. Finally, we apply our methods to identify predictive biomarkers on two real clinical trials, and introduce a new graphical representation that provides greater insight into the prognostic and predictive strength of each biomarker. R implementations of the suggested methods are available at https://github.com/sechidis. konstantinos.sechidis@manchester.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  5. Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has received considerable attention recently as an emerging sub-discipline within SHM. Prognosis is here strictly defined as “predicting the time at...

  6. Analysis of information security reliability: A tutorial

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondakci, Suleyman

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a concise reliability analysis of network security abstracted from stochastic modeling, reliability, and queuing theories. Network security analysis is composed of threats, their impacts, and recovery of the failed systems. A unique framework with a collection of the key reliability models is presented here to guide the determination of the system reliability based on the strength of malicious acts and performance of the recovery processes. A unique model, called Attack-obstacle model, is also proposed here for analyzing systems with immunity growth features. Most computer science curricula do not contain courses in reliability modeling applicable to different areas of computer engineering. Hence, the topic of reliability analysis is often too diffuse to most computer engineers and researchers dealing with network security. This work is thus aimed at shedding some light on this issue, which can be useful in identifying models, their assumptions and practical parameters for estimating the reliability of threatened systems and for assessing the performance of recovery facilities. It can also be useful for the classification of processes and states regarding the reliability of information systems. Systems with stochastic behaviors undergoing queue operations and random state transitions can also benefit from the approaches presented here. - Highlights: • A concise survey and tutorial in model-based reliability analysis applicable to information security. • A framework of key modeling approaches for assessing reliability of networked systems. • The framework facilitates quantitative risk assessment tasks guided by stochastic modeling and queuing theory. • Evaluation of approaches and models for modeling threats, failures, impacts, and recovery analysis of information systems

  7. Reliability of "Google" for obtaining medical information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihir Kothari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Internet is used by many patients to obtain relevant medical information. We assessed the impact of "Google" search on the knowledge of the parents whose ward suffered from squint. In 21 consecutive patients, the "Google" search improved the mean score of the correct answers from 47% to 62%. We found that "Google" search was useful and reliable source of information for the patients with regards to the disease etiopathogenesis and the problems caused by the disease. The internet-based information, however, was incomplete and not reliable with regards to the disease treatment.

  8. Strength Measurements in Acute Hamstring Injuries: Intertester Reliability and Prognostic Value of Handheld Dynamometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reurink, Gustaaf; Goudswaard, Gert Jan; Moen, Maarten H; Tol, Johannes L; Verhaar, Jan A N; Weir, Adam

    2016-08-01

    Study Design Cohort study, repeated measures. Background Although hamstring strength measurements are used for assessing prognosis and monitoring recovery after hamstring injury, their actual clinical relevance has not been established. Handheld dynamometry (HHD) is a commonly used method of measuring muscle strength. The reliability of HHD has not been determined in athletes with acute hamstring injuries. Objectives To determine the intertester reliability and the prognostic value of hamstring HHD strength measurement in acute hamstring injuries. Methods We measured knee flexion strength with HHD in 75 athletes at 2 visits, at baseline (within 5 days of hamstring injury) and follow-up (5 to 7 days after the baseline measurement). We assessed isometric hamstring strength in 15° and 90° of knee flexion. Reliability analysis testing was performed by 2 testers independently at the follow-up visit. We recorded the time needed to return to play (RTP) up to 6 months following baseline. Results The intraclass correlation coefficients of the strength measurements in injured hamstrings were between 0.75 and 0.83. There was a statistically significant but weak correlation between the time to RTP and the strength deficit at 15° of knee flexion measured at baseline (Spearman r = 0.25, P = .045) and at the follow-up visit (Spearman r = 0.26, P = .034). Up to 7% of the variance in time to RTP is explained by this strength deficit. None of the other strength variables were significantly correlated with time to RTP. Conclusion Hamstring strength can be reliably measured with HHD in athletes with acute hamstring injuries. The prognostic value of strength measurements is limited, as there is only a weak association between the time to RTP and hamstring strength deficit after acute injury. Level of Evidence Prognosis, level 4. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2016;46(8):689-696. Epub 12 May 2016. doi:10.2519/jospt.2016.6363.

  9. Remote patient monitoring: Information reliability challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petkovic, M.

    2009-01-01

    An increasing number of extramural applications in the personal healthcare domain pose new challenges regarding the security of medical data. In this paper, we focus on remote patient monitoring systems and the issues around information reliability. In these systems medical data is not collected by

  10. Prognostic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamel Abd Elaziz Mohamed

    2014-10-01

    Conclusion: Our study suggests that lactate clearance could be used as a useful biomarker which is inexpensive and a reliable predictor of patient outcome in critically ill patients admitted to ICU with severe community-acquired pneumonia.

  11. Reliability of dynamic systems under limited information.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr. (.,; .); Grigoriu, Mircea

    2006-09-01

    A method is developed for reliability analysis of dynamic systems under limited information. The available information includes one or more samples of the system output; any known information on features of the output can be used if available. The method is based on the theory of non-Gaussian translation processes and is shown to be particularly suitable for problems of practical interest. For illustration, we apply the proposed method to a series of simple example problems and compare with results given by traditional statistical estimators in order to establish the accuracy of the method. It is demonstrated that the method delivers accurate results for the case of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems, and can be applied to analyze experimental data and/or mathematical model outputs. Two complex applications of direct interest to Sandia are also considered. First, we apply the proposed method to assess design reliability of a MEMS inertial switch. Second, we consider re-entry body (RB) component vibration response during normal re-entry, where the objective is to estimate the time-dependent probability of component failure. This last application is directly relevant to re-entry random vibration analysis at Sandia, and may provide insights on test-based and/or model-based qualification of weapon components for random vibration environments.

  12. Reliability data update using condition monitoring and prognostics in probabilistic safety assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyeonmin Kim

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA has had a significant role in quantitative decision-making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs. Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still “conservative” aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP, utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time- and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs and probability of basic events (BEs. Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1 how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2 how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF depending on operational conditions.

  13. Reliability data update using condition monitoring and prognostics in probabilistic safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyeon Min; Lee, Sang Hwan; Park, Jun Seok; Kim, Hyung Dae; Chang, Yoon Suk; Heo, Gyun Young [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-03-15

    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has had a significant role in quantitative decision making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs). Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still 'conservative' aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP), utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs) and probability of basic events (BEs). Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1) how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2) how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF) depending on operational conditions.

  14. Empiric reliability of diagnostic and prognostic estimations of physical standards of children, going in for sports.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaporozhanov V.A.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In the conditions of sporting-pedagogical practices objective estimation of potential possibilities gettings busy already on the initial stages of long-term preparation examined as one of issues of the day. The proper quantitative information allows to individualize preparation of gettings in obedience to requirements to the guided processes busy. Research purpose - logically and metrical to rotin expedience of metrical method of calculations of reliability of results of the control measurings, in-use for diagnostics of psychophysical fitness and prognosis of growth of trade gettings busy in the select type of sport. Material and methods. Analysed the results of the control measurings on four indexes of psychophysical preparedness and estimation of experts of fitness 24th gettings busy composition of children of gymnastic school. The results of initial and final inspection of gymnasts on the same control tests processed the method of mathematical statistics. Expected the metrical estimations of reliability of measurings is stability, co-ordination and informing of control information for current diagnostics and prognosis of sporting possibilities inspected. Results. Expedience of the use in these aims of metrical operations of calculation of complex estimation of the psychophysical state of gettings busy is metrology grounded. Conclusions. Research results confirm expedience of calculation of complex estimation of psychophysical features gettings busy for diagnostics of fitness in the select type of sport and trade prognosis on the subsequent stages of preparation.

  15. The reliability and usability of district health information software ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The reliability and usability of district health information software: case studies from Tanzania. ... The District Health Information System (DHIS) software from the Health Information System ... EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT

  16. The inter-rater reliability and prognostic value of coma scales in Nepali children with acute encephalitis syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Stephen; Rayamajhi, Ajit; Bonnett, Laura J; Solomon, Tom; Kneen, Rachel; Griffiths, Michael J

    2018-02-01

    Background Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) is a common cause of coma in Nepali children. The Glasgow coma scale (GCS) is used to assess the level of coma in these patients and predict outcome. Alternative coma scales may have better inter-rater reliability and prognostic value in encephalitis in Nepali children, but this has not been studied. The Adelaide coma scale (ACS), Blantyre coma scale (BCS) and the Alert, Verbal, Pain, Unresponsive scale (AVPU) are alternatives to the GCS which can be used. Methods Children aged 1-14 years who presented to Kanti Children's Hospital, Kathmandu with AES between September 2010 and November 2011 were recruited. All four coma scales (GCS, ACS, BCS and AVPU) were applied on admission, 48 h later and on discharge. Inter-rater reliability (unweighted kappa) was measured for each. Correlation and agreement between total coma score and outcome (Liverpool outcome score) was measured by Spearman's rank and Bland-Altman plot. The prognostic value of coma scales alone and in combination with physiological variables was investigated in a subgroup (n = 22). A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted by backward stepwise. Results Fifty children were recruited. Inter-rater reliability using the variables scales was fair to moderate. However, the scales poorly predicted clinical outcome. Combining the scales with physiological parameters such as systolic blood pressure improved outcome prediction. Conclusion This is the first study to compare four coma scales in Nepali children with AES. The scales exhibited fair to moderate inter-rater reliability. However, the study is inadequately powered to answer the question on the relationship between coma scales and outcome. Further larger studies are required.

  17. Management Control for Reliable Financial Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria María Antonieta Martín Granados

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The financial information is the document that the administration of a juridical entity issues to know his financial situation. The financial information is useful and confiable for the users of the financial information when this has been prepared under conditions of certainty. This certainty is provided by the administration when it establishes political and procedures of internal control, as well as the surveillance in the accomplishment of the internal control. This control incides in the financial information since it is inherent to the operative flow and extends itself in relevant information, veracious and comparable. This is important for users of the financial information, due to the fact that they take timely and objective decisions.

  18. Mammographic casting-type calcification associated with small screen-detected invasive breast cancers: is this a reliable prognostic indicator?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peacock, C.; Given-Wilson, R.M.; Duffy, S.W.

    2004-01-01

    AIM: The aim of the present study was to establish whether mammographic casting-type calcification associated with small screen-detected invasive breast cancers is a reliable prognostic indicator. METHODS AND MATERIALS: We retrospectively identified 50 consecutive women diagnosed with an invasive cancer less than 15 mm who showed associated casting calcification on their screening mammograms. Controls were identified that showed no microcalcification and were matched for tumour size, histological type and lymph node status. A minimum of 5 years follow-up was obtained, noting recurrence and outcome. Conditional and unconditional logistic regression, depending on the outcome variable, were used to analyse the data, taking the matched design into account in both cases. Where small numbers prohibited the use of logistic regression, Fisher's exact test was used. RESULTS: Five deaths from breast cancer occurred out of the 50 cases, of which three were lymph node positive, two were lymph node negative and none were grade 3. None of the 78 control cases died from breast cancer. The difference in breast cancer death rates was significant by Fisher's exact test (p=0.02). Risk of recurrence was also significantly increased in the casting cases (OR=3.55, 95% CI 1.02-12.33, p=0.046). CONCLUSION: Although the overall outcome for small screen-detected breast cancers is good, our study suggests that casting calcification is a poorer prognostic factor. The advantage of a mammographic feature as an independent prognostic indicator lies in early identification of high-risk patients, allowing optimization of management

  19. Preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen and prognosis of colorectal cancer. An independent prognostic factor still reliable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li Destri, Giovanni; Rubino, Antonio Salvatore; Latino, Rosalia; Giannone, Fabio; Lanteri, Raffaele; Scilletta, Beniamino; Di Cataldo, Antonio

    2015-04-01

    To evaluate whether, in a sample of patients radically treated for colorectal carcinoma, the preoperative determination of the carcinoembryonic antigen (p-CEA) may have a prognostic value and constitute an independent risk factor in relation to disease-free survival. The preoperative CEA seems to be related both to the staging of colorectal neoplasia and to the patient's prognosis, although this-to date-has not been conclusively demonstrated and is still a matter of intense debate in the scientific community. This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. A total of 395 patients were radically treated for colorectal carcinoma. The preoperative CEA was statistically compared with the 2010 American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging, the T and N parameters, and grading. All parameters recorded in our database were tested for an association with disease-free survival (DFS). Only factors significantly associated (P < 0.05) with the DFS were used to build multivariate stepwise forward logistic regression models to establish their independent predictors. A statistically significant relationship was found between p-CEA and tumor staging (P < 0.001), T (P < 0.001) and N parameters (P = 0.006). In a multivariate analysis, the independent prognostic factors found were: p-CEA, stages N1 and N2 according to AJCC, and G3 grading (grade). A statistically significant difference (P < 0.001) was evident between the DFS of patients with normal and high p-CEA levels. Preoperative CEA makes a pre-operative selection possible of those patients for whom it is likely to be able to predict a more advanced staging.

  20. Prognostic information in administrative co-morbidity data following coronary artery bypass grafting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildstrøm, Steen Zabell; Hvelplund, Anders; Rasmussen, Søren

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic information obtainable from administrative data with respect to 30-day mortality following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to compare it with the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) recorded in a clinical...

  1. Bone scintigraphy in Ewing's sarcoma during and after treatment - prognostic information from the primary tumor site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piers, D.A.; Veenhoven, R.H.; Kamps, W.A.; Woldring, M.G.

    1988-01-01

    A bone scan can be negative in Ewing's sarcoma. The bone scan during and after treatment can give prognostic information on the primary tumor site: A persisting hot spot strongly suggests the presence of local malignancy, while a hot spot becomming negative points to local cure of Ewing's sarcoma. (orig.)

  2. Under Construction: Reviewing and Producing Information Reliability on the Web

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.A. Adams (Samantha)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractSince 1995, medical professionals, governments and independent organizations have been developing special tools to help lay-persons find websites that are guaranteed to give only reliable medical or health-related information. However, as these different actors also recognize, such a

  3. Evaluation of Information Requirements of Reliability Methods in Engineering Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marini, Vinicius Kaster; Restrepo-Giraldo, John Dairo; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema

    2010-01-01

    This paper aims to characterize the information needed to perform methods for robustness and reliability, and verify their applicability to early design stages. Several methods were evaluated on their support to synthesis in engineering design. Of those methods, FMEA, FTA and HAZOP were selected...

  4. Reliability and Validity of Curriculum-Based Informal Reading Inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Lynn; And Others

    A study was conducted to explore the reliability and validity of three prominent procedures used in informal reading inventories (IRIs): (1) choosing a 95% word recognition accuracy standard for determining student instructional level, (2) arbitrarily selecting a passage to represent the difficulty level of a basal reader, and (3) employing…

  5. Prognostic information in administrative co-morbidity data following coronary artery bypass grafting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abildstrøm, Steen Zabell; Hvelplund, Anders; Rasmussen, Søren

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic information obtainable from administrative data with respect to 30-day mortality following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to compare it with the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) recorded ...... was equal to that of the EuroSCORE (c-statistic 0.79). Conclusions: A standard co-morbidity index based on administrative data as well as on clinical data has proven equally useful for prediction of mortality amongst CABG patients.......Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic information obtainable from administrative data with respect to 30-day mortality following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to compare it with the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) recorded...... in a clinical database. Methods: We used a co-morbidity index calculated from administrative data in the Danish National Patient Register by means of all admissions 1 year prior to CABG. In addition, each CABG was categorised as being isolated or not, and acute or not. The prognostic power of the co...

  6. Is Preoperative Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio a Reliable Prognostic Parameter for Localized Prostate Cancer?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tümay İpekçi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: In spite of all efforts, prostate cancer is still the 2nd highest cause of cancer-related deaths in men. For this reason new developments are needed in diagnosis, treatment and follow-up of prostate cancer. Neutrophil/lymphocyte (N/L ratio is a cheap and effective parameter used for research into many solid tumors; but there are not enough studies on the reliability of this parameter in prostate cancer. In this study we researched the efficacy of N/L ratio in localized prostate cancer. Materials and Methods: Between March 9, 2012 and April 23, 2017, the data of 140 patients who underwent radical prostatectomy with localized prostate cancer were screened retrospectively. The patients’ ages, preoperative prostate specific antigen (PSA and N/L ratio, pathologic stage, pathologic Gleason score, tumor volume, lymph node involvement, surgical margin positivity and presence or absence of 3rd month biochemical recurrence were noted. The correlations between N/L ratio with age, PSA, pathologic parameters, surgical margin positivity and biochemical recurrence were investigated. Results: The mean age of patients was 63.0±5.9 years, mean PSA value was 10.8±8.5 ng/mL and mean N/L ratio was 2.5±1.9. There was no correlation found between N/L ratio and PSA, pathologic stage, Gleason score, lymph node involvement, tumor volume, surgical margin positivity and biochemical recurrence (p>0.05. Conclusion: In our study investigating 140 patients with localized prostate cancer, we did not identify any correlation between N/L ratio and PSA, surgical stage and Gleason score, surgical margin positivity, and 3rd month biochemical recurrence. When the literature is investigated, it appears that N/L ratio is effective for metastatic prostate cancer. To provide a more accurate judgment of the role of N/L ratio in localized prostate cancer, there is a need for new studies with broader patient series.

  7. The dependence of human reliability upon task information content

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hermanson, E.M.; Golay, M.W.

    1994-09-01

    The role of human error in safety mishaps is an important factor in system design. As systems become increasingly complex the capacity of the human to deal with the added complexity is diminished. It is therefore crucial to understand the relationship between system complexity and human reliability so that systems may be built in such a way as to minimize human error. One way of understanding this relationship is to quantify system complexity and then measure the human reaction in response to situations of varying complexity. The quantification of system complexity may be performed by determining the information content present in the tasks that the human must execute. The purpose of this work is therefore to build and perform a consistent experiment which will determine the extent to which human reliability depends upon task information content. Two main conclusions may be drawn from this work. The first is that human reliability depends upon task information content. Specifically, as the information content contained in a task increases, the capacity of a human to deal successfully with the task decreases monotonically. Here the definition of total success is the ability to complete the task at hand fully and correctly. Furthermore, there exists a value of information content below which a human can deal with the task successfully, but above which the success of an individual decreases monotonically with increasing information. These ideas should be generalizable to any model where system complexity can be clearly and consistently defined

  8. Laboratory Information Management System Chain of Custody: Reliability and Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, J. J.; Elliott-Smith, W.; Radosta, T.

    2006-01-01

    A chain of custody (COC) is required in many laboratories that handle forensics, drugs of abuse, environmental, clinical, and DNA testing, as well as other laboratories that want to assure reliability of reported results. Maintaining a dependable COC can be laborious, but with the recent establishment of the criteria for electronic records and signatures by US regulatory agencies, laboratory information management systems (LIMSs) are now being developed to fully automate COCs. The extent of automation and of data reliability can vary, and FDA- and EPA-compliant electronic signatures and system security are rare. PMID:17671623

  9. Factors Affecting Physicians' Intentions to Communicate Personalized Prognostic Information to Cancer Patients at the End of Life: An Experimental Vignette Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Paul K J; Dieckmann, Nathan F; Holt, Christina; Gutheil, Caitlin; Peters, Ellen

    2016-08-01

    To explore the effects of personalized prognostic information on physicians' intentions to communicate prognosis to cancer patients at the end of life, and to identify factors that moderate these effects. A factorial experiment was conducted in which 93 family medicine physicians were presented with a hypothetical vignette depicting an end-stage gastric cancer patient seeking prognostic information. Physicians' intentions to communicate prognosis were assessed before and after provision of personalized prognostic information, while emotional distress of the patient and ambiguity (imprecision) of the prognostic estimate were varied between subjects. General linear models were used to test the effects of personalized prognostic information, patient distress, and ambiguity on prognostic communication intentions, and potential moderating effects of 1) perceived patient distress, 2) perceived credibility of prognostic models, 3) physician numeracy (objective and subjective), and 4) physician aversion to risk and ambiguity. Provision of personalized prognostic information increased prognostic communication intentions (P < 0.001, η(2) = 0.38), although experimentally manipulated patient distress and prognostic ambiguity had no effects. Greater change in communication intentions was positively associated with higher perceived credibility of prognostic models (P = 0.007, η(2) = 0.10), higher objective numeracy (P = 0.01, η(2) = 0.09), female sex (P = 0.01, η(2) = 0.08), and lower perceived patient distress (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.07). Intentions to communicate available personalized prognostic information were positively associated with higher perceived credibility of prognostic models (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.09), higher subjective numeracy (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.08), and lower ambiguity aversion (P = 0.06, η(2) = 0.04). Provision of personalized prognostic information increases physicians' prognostic communication intentions to a hypothetical end-stage cancer patient, and

  10. Tumor-Associated Macrophages Provide Significant Prognostic Information in Urothelial Bladder Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minna M Boström

    Full Text Available Inflammation is an important feature of carcinogenesis. Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs can be associated with either poor or improved prognosis, depending on their properties and polarization. Current knowledge of the prognostic significance of TAMs in bladder cancer is limited and was investigated in this study. We analyzed 184 urothelial bladder cancer patients undergoing transurethral resection of a bladder tumor or radical cystectomy. CD68 (pan-macrophage marker, MAC387 (polarized towards type 1 macrophages, and CLEVER-1/Stabilin-1 (type 2 macrophages and lymphatic/blood vessels were detected immunohistochemically. The median follow-up time was 6.0 years. High macrophage counts associated with a higher pT category and grade. Among patients undergoing transurethral resection, all studied markers apart from CLEVER-1/Stabilin-1 were associated with increased risk of progression and poorer disease-specific and overall survival in univariate analyses. High levels of two macrophage markers (CD68/MAC387+/+ or CD68/CLEVER-1+/+ groups had an independent prognostic role after transurethral resection in multivariate analyses. In the cystectomy cohort, MAC387, alone and in combination with CD68, was associated with poorer survival in univariate analyses, but none of the markers were independent predictors of outcome in multivariate analyses. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that macrophage phenotypes provide significant independent prognostic information, particularly in bladder cancers undergoing transurethral resection.

  11. Laboratory Information Management System Chain of Custody: Reliability and Security

    OpenAIRE

    Tomlinson, J. J.; Elliott-Smith, W.; Radosta, T.

    2006-01-01

    A chain of custody (COC) is required in many laboratories that handle forensics, drugs of abuse, environmental, clinical, and DNA testing, as well as other laboratories that want to assure reliability of reported results. Maintaining a dependable COC can be laborious, but with the recent establishment of the criteria for electronic records and signatures by US regulatory agencies, laboratory information management systems (LIMSs) are now being developed to fully automate COCs. The extent of a...

  12. An information system supporting design for reliability and maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rit, J.F.; Beraud, M.T

    1997-12-31

    EDF is currently developing a methodology to integrate availability, operating experience and maintenance in the design of power plants. This involves studies that depend closely on the results and assumptions of each other about the reliability and operations of the plant. Therefore a support information system must be carefully designed. Concurrently with development of the methodology, a research oriented information system was designed and built. It is based on the database model of a logistic support repository that we tailored to our needs. (K.A.) 10 refs.

  13. An information system supporting design for reliability and maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rit, J.F.; Beraud, M.T.

    1997-01-01

    EDF is currently developing a methodology to integrate availability, operating experience and maintenance in the design of power plants. This involves studies that depend closely on the results and assumptions of each other about the reliability and operations of the plant. Therefore a support information system must be carefully designed. Concurrently with development of the methodology, a research oriented information system was designed and built. It is based on the database model of a logistic support repository that we tailored to our needs. (K.A.)

  14. Using image analysis as a tool for assessment of prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancer: How reliable is it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark C Lloyd

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : Estrogen receptor (ER, progesterone receptor (PR and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2 are important and well-established prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancers and routinely tested on patient′s tumor samples by immunohistochemical (IHC study. The accuracy of these test results has substantial impact on patient management. A critical factor that contributes to the result is the interpretation (scoring of IHC. This study investigates how computerized image analysis can play a role in a reliable scoring, and identifies potential pitfalls with common methods. Materials and Methods : Whole slide images of 33 invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC (10 ER and 23 HER2 were scored by pathologist under the light microscope and confirmed by another pathologist. The HER2 results were additionally confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH. The scoring criteria were adherent to the guidelines recommended by the American Society of Clinical Oncology/College of American Pathologists. Whole slide stains were then scored by commercially available image analysis algorithms from Definiens (Munich, Germany and Aperio Technologies (Vista, CA, USA. Each algorithm was modified specifically for each marker and tissue. The results were compared with the semi-quantitative manual scoring, which was considered the gold standard in this study. Results : For HER2 positive group, each algorithm scored 23/23 cases within the range established by the pathologist. For ER, both algorithms scored 10/10 cases within range. The performance of each algorithm varies somewhat from the percentage of staining as compared to the pathologist′s reading. Conclusions : Commercially available computerized image analysis can be useful in the evaluation of ER and HER2 IHC results. In order to achieve accurate results either manual pathologist region selection is necessary, or an automated region selection tool must be employed. Specificity can

  15. [Toxoplasmosis and Pregnancy: Reliability of Internet Sources of Information].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobić, Branko; Štajner, Tijana; Nikolić, Aleksandra; Klun, Ivana; Srbljanović, Jelena; Djurković-Djaković, Olgica

    2015-01-01

    Health education of women of childbearing age has been shown to be an acceptable approach to the prevention of toxoplasmosis, the most frequent congenitally transmitted parasitic infection. The aim of this study was to evaluate the Internet as a source of health education on toxoplasmosis in pregnancy. A group of 100 pregnant women examined in the National Reference Laboratory for Toxoplasmosis was surveyed by a questionnaire on the source of their information on toxoplasmosis. We also analyzed information offered by websites in the Serbian and Croatian languages through the Google search engine, using "toxoplasmosis" as a keyword. The 23 top websites were evaluated for comprehensiveness and accuracy of information on the impact of toxoplasmosis on the course of pregnancy, diagnosis and prevention. Having knowledge on toxoplasmosis was confirmed by 64 (64.0%) examined women, 40.6% (26/64) of whom learned about toxoplasmosis through the Internet, 48.4% from physicians, and 10.9% from friends. Increase in the degree of education was found to be associated with the probability that pregnant women would be informed via the Internet (RR=3.15, 95% CI=1.27-7.82, p=0.013). Analysis of four interactive websites (allowing users to ask questions) showed that routes of infection were the most common concern, particularly the risk presented by pet cats and dogs, followed by the diagnosis of infection (who and when should be tested, and how should the results be interpreted). Of 20 sites containing educational articles, only seven were authorized and two listed sources. Evaluation confirmed that information relevant to pregnant women was significantly more accurate than comprehensive, but no site gave both comprehensive and completely accurate information. Only four sites (20%) were good sources of information for pregnant women. Internet has proved itself as an important source of information. However, despite numerous websites, only a few offer reliable information to the

  16. Information about robustness, reliability and safety in early design phases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marini, Vinicius Kaster

    methods, and an industrial case to assess how the use of information about robustness, reliability and safety as practised by current methods influences concept development. Current methods cannot be used in early design phases due to their dependence on detailed design information for the identification...... alternatives. This prompts designers to reuse working principles that are inherently flawed, as they are liable to disturbances, failures and hazards. To address this issue, an approach based upon individual records of early design issues consists of comparing failures and benefits from prior working...... principles, before making a decision, and improving the more suitable alternatives through this feedback. Workshops were conducted with design practitioners to evaluate the potential of the approach and to simulate decision-making and gain feedback on a proof-of-concept basis. The evaluation has demonstrated...

  17. Limits on reliable information flows through stochastic populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boczkowski, Lucas; Natale, Emanuele; Feinerman, Ofer; Korman, Amos

    2018-06-06

    Biological systems can share and collectively process information to yield emergent effects, despite inherent noise in communication. While man-made systems often employ intricate structural solutions to overcome noise, the structure of many biological systems is more amorphous. It is not well understood how communication noise may affect the computational repertoire of such groups. To approach this question we consider the basic collective task of rumor spreading, in which information from few knowledgeable sources must reliably flow into the rest of the population. We study the effect of communication noise on the ability of groups that lack stable structures to efficiently solve this task. We present an impossibility result which strongly restricts reliable rumor spreading in such groups. Namely, we prove that, in the presence of even moderate levels of noise that affect all facets of the communication, no scheme can significantly outperform the trivial one in which agents have to wait until directly interacting with the sources-a process which requires linear time in the population size. Our results imply that in order to achieve efficient rumor spread a system must exhibit either some degree of structural stability or, alternatively, some facet of the communication which is immune to noise. We then corroborate this claim by providing new analyses of experimental data regarding recruitment in Cataglyphis niger desert ants. Finally, in light of our theoretical results, we discuss strategies to overcome noise in other biological systems.

  18. Mayo Alliance Prognostic Model for Myelodysplastic Syndromes: Integration of Genetic and Clinical Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tefferi, Ayalew; Gangat, Naseema; Mudireddy, Mythri; Lasho, Terra L; Finke, Christy; Begna, Kebede H; Elliott, Michelle A; Al-Kali, Aref; Litzow, Mark R; Hook, C Christopher; Wolanskyj, Alexandra P; Hogan, William J; Patnaik, Mrinal M; Pardanani, Animesh; Zblewski, Darci L; He, Rong; Viswanatha, David; Hanson, Curtis A; Ketterling, Rhett P; Tang, Jih-Luh; Chou, Wen-Chien; Lin, Chien-Chin; Tsai, Cheng-Hong; Tien, Hwei-Fang; Hou, Hsin-An

    2018-06-01

    To develop a new risk model for primary myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) that integrates information on mutations, karyotype, and clinical variables. Patients with World Health Organization-defined primary MDS seen at Mayo Clinic (MC) from December 28, 1994, through December 19, 2017, constituted the core study group. The National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH) provided the validation cohort. Model performance, compared with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, was assessed by Akaike information criterion and area under the curve estimates. The study group consisted of 685 molecularly annotated patients from MC (357) and NTUH (328). Multivariate analysis of the MC cohort identified monosomal karyotype (hazard ratio [HR], 5.2; 95% CI, 3.1-8.6), "non-MK abnormalities other than single/double del(5q)" (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.6), RUNX1 (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.2-3.1) and ASXL1 (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.3) mutations, absence of SF3B1 mutations (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4), age greater than 70 years (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.6-3.1), hemoglobin level less than 8 g/dL in women or less than 9 g/dL in men (HR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-3.1), platelet count less than 75 × 10 9 /L (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1), and 10% or more bone marrow blasts (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8) as predictors of inferior overall survival. Based on HR-weighted risk scores, a 4-tiered Mayo alliance prognostic model for MDS was devised: low (89 patients), intermediate-1 (104), intermediate-2 (95), and high (69); respective median survivals (5-year overall survival rates) were 85 (73%), 42 (34%), 22 (7%), and 9 months (0%). The Mayo alliance model was subsequently validated by using the external NTUH cohort and, compared with the revised International Prognostic Scoring System, displayed favorable Akaike information criterion (1865 vs 1943) and area under the curve (0.87 vs 0.76) values. We propose a simple and contemporary risk model for MDS that is based on a limited set of genetic and clinical variables

  19. Reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Condon, David; Revelle, William

    2017-01-01

    Separating the signal in a test from the irrelevant noise is a challenge for all measurement. Low test reliability limits test validity, attenuates important relationships, and can lead to regression artifacts. Multiple approaches to the assessment and improvement of reliability are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of several different approaches to reliability are considered. Practical advice on how to assess reliability using open source software is provided.

  20. On Bayesian reliability analysis with informative priors and censoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coolen, F.P.A.

    1996-01-01

    In the statistical literature many methods have been presented to deal with censored observations, both within the Bayesian and non-Bayesian frameworks, and such methods have been successfully applied to, e.g., reliability problems. Also, in reliability theory it is often emphasized that, through shortage of statistical data and possibilities for experiments, one often needs to rely heavily on judgements of engineers, or other experts, for which means Bayesian methods are attractive. It is therefore important that such judgements can be elicited easily to provide informative prior distributions that reflect the knowledge of the engineers well. In this paper we focus on this aspect, especially on the situation that the judgements of the consulted engineers are based on experiences in environments where censoring has also been present previously. We suggest the use of the attractive interpretation of hyperparameters of conjugate prior distributions when these are available for assumed parametric models for lifetimes, and we show how one may go beyond the standard conjugate priors, using similar interpretations of hyper-parameters, to enable easier elicitation when censoring has been present in the past. This may even lead to more flexibility for modelling prior knowledge than when using standard conjugate priors, whereas the disadvantage of more complicated calculations that may be needed to determine posterior distributions play a minor role due to the advanced mathematical and statistical software that is widely available these days

  1. Informed consent in contrast-enhanced CT. Understanding of risks and identification of possible prognostic factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roehrl, S.; Dendl, L.M.; Scharf, G.; Stroszczynski, C.; Schreyer, A.G.; Zeman, F.

    2015-01-01

    Aim of our study was to assess understanding of risks associated with intravascular application of contrast media in patients undergoing CT examination. We wanted to evaluate epidemiologic and socio-economic prognostic factors for a higher understanding of risks. Additionally, we evaluated a possible correlation between an extensive, outcome-oriented oral informed consent and better understanding of risks. 120 patients distributed in 2 study arms participated in this prospective study. In study arm I, the treating physician was not informed that his patients participated in a study whereas the physician in study arm II knew about the survey. After the informed consent we performed a standardized, semi-structured interview to enquire the 3 most frequent risks of intravascular application of contrast agents (anaphylactoid reactions, nephropathy and thyrotoxic crisis) and epidemiologic data. The understanding of the risks was evaluated using a 6 point scale. Patients scored 3.73 points in study arm I and 4.93 points in arm II on average. The statistical difference between both study arms was highly significant (p < 0.001). In a combined logistic regression analysis, only ''higher education'' (p = 0.001) and participation in study arm II (p =0.001) showed a significant connection to a better understanding of risks. Patients profit from an outcome-oriented and individualized informed consent. Due to the significant correlation between educational level and understanding of risks, informed consent should be adjusted to the educational status of the individual patient, e.g. by using didactic aids or individualized information sheets.

  2. Regional Longitudinal Myocardial Deformation Provides Incremental Prognostic Information in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tor Biering-Sørensen

    Full Text Available Global longitudinal systolic strain (GLS has recently been demonstrated to be a superior prognosticator to conventional echocardiographic measures in patients after myocardial infarction (MI. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of regional longitudinal myocardial deformation in comparison to GLS, conventional echocardiography and clinical information.In total 391 patients were admitted with ST-Segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI, treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention and subsequently examined by echocardiography. All patients were examined by tissue Doppler imaging (TDI and two-dimensional strain echocardiography (2DSE.During a median-follow-up of 5.3 (IQR 2.5-6.1 years the primary endpoint (death, heart failure or a new MI was reached by 145 (38.9% patients. After adjustment for significant confounders (including conventional echocardiographic parameters and culprit lesion, reduced longitudinal performance in the anterior septal and inferior myocardial regions (but not GLS remained independent predictors of the combined outcome. Furthermore, inferior myocardial longitudinal deformation provided incremental prognostic information to clinical and conventional echocardiographic information (Harrell's c-statistics: 0.63 vs. 0.67, p = 0.032. In addition, impaired longitudinal deformation outside the culprit lesion perfusion region was significantly associated with an adverse outcome (p<0.05 for all deformation parameters.Regional longitudinal myocardial deformation measures, regardless if determined by TDI or 2DSE, are superior prognosticators to GLS. In addition, impaired longitudinal deformation in the inferior myocardial segment provides prognostic information over and above clinical and conventional echocardiographic risk factors. Furthermore, impaired longitudinal deformation outside the culprit lesion perfusion region seems to be a paramount marker of adverse outcome.

  3. Regional Longitudinal Myocardial Deformation Provides Incremental Prognostic Information in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biering-Sorensen, Tor; Jensen, Jan Skov; Pedersen, Sune H

    2016-01-01

    deformation in comparison to GLS, conventional echocardiography and clinical information. Method In total 391 patients were admitted with ST-Segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention and subsequently examined by echocardiography. All patients were...... information to clinical and conventional echocardiographic information (Harrell's c-statistics: 0.63 vs. 0.67, p = 0.032). In addition, impaired longitudinal deformation outside the culprit lesion perfusion region was significantly associated with an adverse outcome (p...). Conclusion Regional longitudinal myocardial deformation measures, regardless if determined by TDI or 2DSE, are superior prognosticators to GLS. In addition, impaired longitudinal deformation in the inferior myocardial segment provides prognostic information over and above clinical and conventional...

  4. Information flow a data bank preparation in nuclear power plant reliability information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolesa, K.; Vejvodova, I.

    1983-01-01

    In the year 1981 the reliability information system for nuclear power plants (ISS-JE) was established. The objective of the system is to make a statistical evaluation of the operation of nuclear power plants and to obtain information on the reliability of the equipment of nuclear power plants and the transmission of this information to manufacturers with the aim of inducing them to take corrective measures. The HP 1000 computer with the data base system IMAGE 100 is used which allows to process single queries and periodical outputs. The content of periodical outputs designed for various groups of subcontractors is briefly described and trends of the further development of the system indicated. (Ha)

  5. Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

    2015-07-01

    Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Improving Metrological Reliability of Information-Measuring Systems Using Mathematical Modeling of Their Metrological Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurnosov, R. Yu; Chernyshova, T. I.; Chernyshov, V. N.

    2018-05-01

    The algorithms for improving the metrological reliability of analogue blocks of measuring channels and information-measuring systems are developed. The proposed algorithms ensure the optimum values of their metrological reliability indices for a given analogue circuit block solution.

  7. The Effect of Information Access Strategy on Power Consumption and Reliability in Wireless Sensor Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tobgay, Sonam; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Prasad, Ramjee

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the effect of different information access strategies on power consumption and information reliability, considering the wireless sensor network as the source of information. Basically, the paper explores three different access strategies, namely; reactive, periodic and hybrid...

  8. Testing the reliability of information extracted from ancient zircon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kielman, Ross; Whitehouse, Martin; Nemchin, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    Studies combining zircon U-Pb chronology, trace element distribution as well as O and Hf isotope systematics are a powerful way to gain understanding of the processes shaping Earth's evolution, especially in detrital populations where constraints from the original host are missing. Such studies of the Hadean detrital zircon population abundant in sedimentary rocks in Western Australia have involved analysis of an unusually large number of individual grains, but also highlighted potential problems with the approach, only apparent when multiple analyses are obtained from individual grains. A common feature of the Hadean as well as many early Archaean zircon populations is their apparent inhomogeneity, which reduces confidence in conclusions based on studies combining chemistry and isotopic characteristics of zircon. In order to test the reliability of information extracted from early Earth zircon, we report results from one of the first in-depth multi-method study of zircon from a relatively simple early Archean magmatic rock, used as an analogue to ancient detrital zircon. The approach involves making multiple SIMS analyses in individual grains in order to be comparable to the most advanced studies of detrital zircon populations. The investigated sample is a relatively undeformed, non-migmatitic ca. 3.8 Ga tonalite collected a few kms south of the Isua Greenstone Belt, southwest Greenland. Extracted zircon grains can be combined into three different groups based on the behavior of their U-Pb systems: (i) grains that show internally consistent and concordant ages and define an average age of 3805±15 Ma, taken to be the age of the rock, (ii) grains that are distributed close to the concordia line, but with significant variability between multiple analyses, suggesting an ancient Pb loss and (iii) grains that have multiple analyses distributed along a discordia pointing towards a zero intercept, indicating geologically recent Pb-loss. This overall behavior has

  9. The PROgnostic Value of unrequested Information in Diagnostic Imaging (PROVIDI) Study: rationale and design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gondrie, M. J. A.; Mali, W. P. Th. M.; Buckens, C. F. M.; Jacobs, P. C. A.; Grobbee, D. E.; Graaf, Y van der

    2010-01-01

    We describe the rationale for a new study examining the prognostic value of unrequested findings in diagnostic imaging. The deployment of more advanced imaging modalities in routine care means that such findings are being detected with increasing frequency. However, as the prognostic significance of many types of unrequested findings is unknown, the optimal response to such findings remains uncertain and in many cases an overly defensive approach is adopted, to the detriment of patient-care. Additionally, novel and promising image findings that are newly available on many routine scans cannot be used to improve patient care until their prognostic value is properly determined. The PROVIDI study seeks to address these issues using an innovative multi-center case-cohort study design. PROVIDI is to consist of a series of studies investigating specific, selected disease entities and clusters. Computed Tomography images from the participating hospitals are reviewed for unrequested findings. Subsequently, this data is pooled with outcome data from a central population registry. Study populations consist of patients with endpoints relevant to the (group of) disease(s) under study along with a random control sample from the cohort. This innovative design allows PROVIDI to evaluate selected unrequested image findings for their true prognostic value in a series of manageable studies. By incorporating unrequested image findings and outcomes data relevant to patients, truly meaningful conclusions about the prognostic value of unrequested and emerging image findings can be reached and used to improve patient-care.

  10. Design for reliability information and computer-based systems

    CERN Document Server

    Bauer, Eric

    2010-01-01

    "System reliability, availability and robustness are often not well understood by system architects, engineers and developers. They often don't understand what drives customer's availability expectations, how to frame verifiable availability/robustness requirements, how to manage and budget availability/robustness, how to methodically architect and design systems that meet robustness requirements, and so on. The book takes a very pragmatic approach of framing reliability and robustness as a functional aspect of a system so that architects, designers, developers and testers can address it as a concrete, functional attribute of a system, rather than an abstract, non-functional notion"--Provided by publisher.

  11. Technical information report: Plasma melter operation, reliability, and maintenance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hendrickson, D.W.

    1995-01-01

    This document provides a technical report of operability, reliability, and maintenance of a plasma melter for low-level waste vitrification, in support of the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Vitrification Program. A process description is provided that minimizes maintenance and downtime and includes material and energy balances, equipment sizes and arrangement, startup/operation/maintence/shutdown cycle descriptions, and basis for scale-up to a 200 metric ton/day production facility. Operational requirements are provided including utilities, feeds, labor, and maintenance. Equipment reliability estimates and maintenance requirements are provided which includes a list of failure modes, responses, and consequences

  12. Models of Information Security Highly Reliable Computing Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vsevolod Ozirisovich Chukanov

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Methods of the combined reservation are considered. The models of reliability of systems considering parameters of restoration and prevention of blocks of system are described. Ratios for average quantity prevention and an availability quotient of blocks of system are given.

  13. Our Commitment to Reliable Health and Medical Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the intent of a website to publish transparent information. The transparency of the website will improve the usefulness and objectivity of the information and the publishment of correct data. The HONcode ...

  14. Improving Reliability of Information Leakage Detection and Prevention Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Mamaev

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of protection from deliberate leaks of information is one of the most difficult. Integrated systems of information protection against insider have a serious drawback. Using this disadvantage the offender receives the possibility of unauthorized theft of information from working machine.

  15. A New Method of Reliability Evaluation Based on Wavelet Information Entropy for Equipment Condition Identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Z J; Zhang, X L; Chen, X F

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at reliability evaluation of condition identification of mechanical equipment, it is necessary to analyze condition monitoring information. A new method of reliability evaluation based on wavelet information entropy extracted from vibration signals of mechanical equipment is proposed. The method is quite different from traditional reliability evaluation models that are dependent on probability statistics analysis of large number sample data. The vibration signals of mechanical equipment were analyzed by means of second generation wavelet package (SGWP). We take relative energy in each frequency band of decomposed signal that equals a percentage of the whole signal energy as probability. Normalized information entropy (IE) is obtained based on the relative energy to describe uncertainty of a system instead of probability. The reliability degree is transformed by the normalized wavelet information entropy. A successful application has been achieved to evaluate the assembled quality reliability for a kind of dismountable disk-drum aero-engine. The reliability degree indicates the assembled quality satisfactorily.

  16. Reliability, Readability and Quality of Online Information about Femoracetabular Impingement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatih Küçükdurmaz

    2015-07-01

    Conclusion: According to our results, the websites intended to attract patients searching for information regarding femoroacetabular impingement are providing a highly accessible, readable information source, but do not appear to apply a comparable amount of rigor to scientific literature or healthcare practitioner websites in regard to matters such as citing sources for information, supplying methodology and including a publication date. This indicates that while these resources are easily accessed by patients, there is potential for them to be a source of misinformation.

  17. Assessing audiological, pathophysiological, and psychological variables in chronic tinnitus: a study of reliability and search for prognostic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, W; Goebel, G

    1999-01-01

    The development and course of chronic tinnitus are determined by both biological and psychological factors. To combine these different sources of data, we developed a standardized interview to assess tinnitus history, summarize audiological findings, screen for etiological conditions, and explore tinnitus-related psychological complaints (Structured Tinnitus Interview). The results of a test-retest study with 65 tinnitus inpatients show that most of these components can be assessed with acceptable or high reliability. Further data based on 166 patients demonstrate that tinnitus annoyance was to some extent different from patterns of general psychological complaints, although there were medium intercorrelations with depression. Significant predictors of tinnitus annoyance were (a) continuous tinnitus without intervals, (b) hearing loss, (c) increasing tinnitus loudness over time, (d) poor maskability, (e) history of sudden hearing loss, and (f) associated craniomandibular disorder. Psychological distress was not significantly increased in patients whose tinnitus was associated to vascular disorder, cervical spine dysfunction, acoustic trauma, Menihre's disease, or neurological disorder.

  18. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Abhinav

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  19. LGE Provides Incremental Prognostic Information Over Serum Biomarkers in AL Cardiac Amyloidosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boynton, Samuel J; Geske, Jeffrey B; Dispenzieri, Angela; Syed, Imran S; Hanson, Theodore J; Grogan, Martha; Araoz, Philip A

    2016-06-01

    This study sought to determine the prognostic value of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) in amyloid light chain (AL) cardiac amyloidosis. Cardiac involvement is the major determinant of mortality in AL amyloidosis. CMR LGE is a marker of amyloid infiltration of the myocardium. The purpose of this study was to evaluate retrospectively the prognostic value of CMR LGE for determining all-cause mortality in AL amyloidosis and to compare the prognostic power with the biomarker stage. Seventy-six patients with histologically proven AL amyloidosis underwent CMR LGE imaging. LGE was categorized as global, focal patchy, or none. Global LGE was considered present if it was visualized on LGE images or if the myocardium nulled before the blood pool on a cine multiple inversion time (TI) sequence. CMR morphologic and functional evaluation, echocardiographic diastolic evaluation, and cardiac biomarker staging were also performed. Subjects' charts were reviewed for all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to evaluate survival in univariate and multivariate analysis. There were 40 deaths, and the median study follow-up period was 34.4 months. Global LGE was associated with all-cause mortality in univariate analysis (hazard ratio = 2.93; p < 0.001). In multivariate modeling with biomarker stage, global LGE remained prognostic (hazard ratio = 2.43; p = 0.01). Diffuse LGE provides incremental prognosis over cardiac biomarker stage in patients with AL cardiac amyloidosis. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Cytogenetic prognostication within medulloblastoma subgroups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, David J H; Northcott, Paul A; Remke, Marc; Korshunov, Andrey; Ramaswamy, Vijay; Kool, Marcel; Luu, Betty; Yao, Yuan; Wang, Xin; Dubuc, Adrian M; Garzia, Livia; Peacock, John; Mack, Stephen C; Wu, Xiaochong; Rolider, Adi; Morrissy, A Sorana; Cavalli, Florence M G; Jones, David T W; Zitterbart, Karel; Faria, Claudia C; Schüller, Ulrich; Kren, Leos; Kumabe, Toshihiro; Tominaga, Teiji; Shin Ra, Young; Garami, Miklós; Hauser, Peter; Chan, Jennifer A; Robinson, Shenandoah; Bognár, László; Klekner, Almos; Saad, Ali G; Liau, Linda M; Albrecht, Steffen; Fontebasso, Adam; Cinalli, Giuseppe; De Antonellis, Pasqualino; Zollo, Massimo; Cooper, Michael K; Thompson, Reid C; Bailey, Simon; Lindsey, Janet C; Di Rocco, Concezio; Massimi, Luca; Michiels, Erna M C; Scherer, Stephen W; Phillips, Joanna J; Gupta, Nalin; Fan, Xing; Muraszko, Karin M; Vibhakar, Rajeev; Eberhart, Charles G; Fouladi, Maryam; Lach, Boleslaw; Jung, Shin; Wechsler-Reya, Robert J; Fèvre-Montange, Michelle; Jouvet, Anne; Jabado, Nada; Pollack, Ian F; Weiss, William A; Lee, Ji-Yeoun; Cho, Byung-Kyu; Kim, Seung-Ki; Wang, Kyu-Chang; Leonard, Jeffrey R; Rubin, Joshua B; de Torres, Carmen; Lavarino, Cinzia; Mora, Jaume; Cho, Yoon-Jae; Tabori, Uri; Olson, James M; Gajjar, Amar; Packer, Roger J; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pomeroy, Scott L; French, Pim J; Kloosterhof, Nanne K; Kros, Johan M; Van Meir, Erwin G; Clifford, Steven C; Bourdeaut, Franck; Delattre, Olivier; Doz, François F; Hawkins, Cynthia E; Malkin, David; Grajkowska, Wieslawa A; Perek-Polnik, Marta; Bouffet, Eric; Rutka, James T; Pfister, Stefan M; Taylor, Michael D

    2014-03-20

    Medulloblastoma comprises four distinct molecular subgroups: WNT, SHH, Group 3, and Group 4. Current medulloblastoma protocols stratify patients based on clinical features: patient age, metastatic stage, extent of resection, and histologic variant. Stark prognostic and genetic differences among the four subgroups suggest that subgroup-specific molecular biomarkers could improve patient prognostication. Molecular biomarkers were identified from a discovery set of 673 medulloblastomas from 43 cities around the world. Combined risk stratification models were designed based on clinical and cytogenetic biomarkers identified by multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses. Identified biomarkers were tested using fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) on a nonoverlapping medulloblastoma tissue microarray (n = 453), with subsequent validation of the risk stratification models. Subgroup information improves the predictive accuracy of a multivariable survival model compared with clinical biomarkers alone. Most previously published cytogenetic biomarkers are only prognostic within a single medulloblastoma subgroup. Profiling six FISH biomarkers (GLI2, MYC, chromosome 11 [chr11], chr14, 17p, and 17q) on formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues, we can reliably and reproducibly identify very low-risk and very high-risk patients within SHH, Group 3, and Group 4 medulloblastomas. Combining subgroup and cytogenetic biomarkers with established clinical biomarkers substantially improves patient prognostication, even in the context of heterogeneous clinical therapies. The prognostic significance of most molecular biomarkers is restricted to a specific subgroup. We have identified a small panel of cytogenetic biomarkers that reliably identifies very high-risk and very low-risk groups of patients, making it an excellent tool for selecting patients for therapy intensification and therapy de-escalation in future clinical trials.

  1. A reliable information management for real-time systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishihara, Takuo; Tomita, Seiji

    1995-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a system configuration suitable for the hard realtime systems in which integrity and durability of information are important. On most hard real-time systems, where response time constraints are critical, the data which program access are volatile, and may be lost in case the systems are down. But for some real-time systems, the value-added intelligent network (IN) systems, e.g., integrity and durability of the stored data are very important. We propose a distributed system configuration for such hard real-time systems, comprised of service control modules and data management modules. The service control modules process transactions and responses based on deadline control, and the data management modules deal the stored data based on information recovery schemes well-restablished in fault real-time systems. (author)

  2. Fault-tolerant search algorithms reliable computation with unreliable information

    CERN Document Server

    Cicalese, Ferdinando

    2013-01-01

    Why a book on fault-tolerant search algorithms? Searching is one of the fundamental problems in computer science. Time and again algorithmic and combinatorial issues originally studied in the context of search find application in the most diverse areas of computer science and discrete mathematics. On the other hand, fault-tolerance is a necessary ingredient of computing. Due to their inherent complexity, information systems are naturally prone to errors, which may appear at any level - as imprecisions in the data, bugs in the software, or transient or permanent hardware failures. This book pr

  3. Should a reliable information processor be chaotic (brain models)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicolis, J S

    1982-01-01

    Brain-like structures have evolved by performing signal processing initially by minimizing tracking errors on a competitive basis. Such systems are highly complex and at the same time notoriously disordered. The functional trace of the cerebral cortex of the human brain is a good example. The electroencephalogram (EEG) appears particularly fragmented during the execution of mental tasks, as well as during the recurrent episodes of rem sleep. A stochastically regular or a highly synchronized EEG on the other hand, characterises a drowsy (relaxing) or epileptic subject respectively and indicates-in both cases-a very incompetent information processor. The author suggests that such behavioral changeovers are produced via bifurcations which trigger the thalamocortical nonlinear pacemaking oscillator to switch from an unstable limit cycle to a strange attractor regime (i.e. to chaos), or vice versa. This analysis aims to show that the EEGs characteristics are not accidental but inevitable and even necessary and, therefore, functionally significant. 25 references.

  4. Communication About Prognosis With Adolescent and Young Adult Patients With Cancer: Information Needs, Prognostic Awareness, and Outcomes of Disclosure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mack, Jennifer W; Fasciano, Karen M; Block, Susan D

    2018-04-23

    Purpose Communication about prognosis affects decisions patients and family members make about cancer care, and most patients say they want to know about their chances of cure. We sought to evaluate experiences with prognosis communication among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) with cancer. Patients and Methods We surveyed 203 AYAs with cancer age 15 to 29 years (response rate, 74%) treated at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and their oncologists. Patients were approached within 6 weeks of diagnosis and asked to report on their prognosis communication preferences and experiences, their beliefs about likelihood of cure, and psychosocial outcomes of communication, such as trust (using an item from the Trust in Physician Scale), peace of mind (using select items from the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual Well-Being Scale), and anxiety and depression (using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale). Oncologists were asked to report the patient's likelihood of cure. Results Most patients (83%, 167 of 203 patients) considered prognostic information to be extremely or very important. Patients who reported having received more extensive prognostic disclosure had higher odds of trust in the oncologist (odds ratio [OR], 1.30; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.67; P = .05), peace of mind (OR, 2.13; 95% CI, 1.29 to 3.51; P = .002), and hope related to physician communication (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.59; P = .04), after adjusting for patient sex, age, race or ethnicity, prognosis, and diagnosis. Disclosure was also associated with lower distress related to knowing about prognosis (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.44 to 0.95; P = .03). However, a majority of patients (62%) reported prognostic estimates that exceeded those reported by physicians (McNemar P < .001). Conclusion Most AYAs with cancer value receiving prognostic information, which is positively associated with aspects of well-being. However, most overestimate chances of cure relative to oncologists, highlighting the

  5. Extracting information from an ensemble of GCMs to reliably assess future global runoff change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.C.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2011-01-01

    Future runoff projections derived from different global climate models (GCMs) show large differences. Therefore, within this study the, information from multiple GCMs has been combined to better assess hydrological changes. For projections of precipitation and temperature the Reliability ensemble

  6. Effectiveness of different approaches to disseminating traveler information on travel time reliability. [supporting datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-30

    Travel time reliability information includes static data about traffic speeds or trip times that capture historic variations from day to day, and it can help individuals understand the level of variation in traffic. Unlike real-time travel time infor...

  7. Germany: INIS — 45 years of Reliable Nuclear Energy Information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehme, Silke; Eck, Sabrina; Mutschelknauss, Michael

    2015-01-01

    other European input centers, has contributed to the comprehensiveness of the INIS database. The INIS Working Groups, dealing with topics related to the database and it’s scientific, technical, and strategic enhancements, allow members the most direct influence on INIS developments. From the very start, Germany has been an active member of the Working Group establishing the Guidelines for Standardized Entry of Corporate Bodies, published under this title as Issue 21 of the INIS Reference Series. Among others, FIZ Karlsruhe was also a committed member of the Working Group responsible for merging the thesaurus and the classification of the two information systems, INIS and ETDE, and contributed to the realization of the Multilingual Thesaurus

  8. A Reliable Measure of Information Security Awareness and the Identification of Bias in Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agata McCormac

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Human Aspects of Information Security Questionnaire (HAIS-Q is designed to measure Information Security Awareness. More specifically, the tool measures an individual’s knowledge, attitude, and self-reported behaviour relating to information security in the workplace. This paper reports on the reliability of the HAIS-Q, including test-retest reliability and internal consistency. The paper also assesses the reliability of three preliminary over-claiming items, designed specifically to complement the HAIS-Q, and identify those individuals who provide socially desirable responses. A total of 197 working Australians completed two iterations of the HAIS-Q and the over-claiming items, approximately 4 weeks apart. Results of the analysis showed that the HAIS-Q was externally reliable and internally consistent. Therefore, the HAIS-Q can be used to reliably measure information security awareness. Reliability testing on the preliminary over-claiming items was not as robust and further development is required and recommended. The implications of these findings mean that organisations can confidently use the HAIS-Q to not only measure the current state of employee information security awareness within their organisation, but they can also measure the effectiveness and impacts of training interventions, information security awareness programs and campaigns. The influence of cultural changes and the effect of security incidents can also be assessed.

  9. Complex method to calculate objective assessments of information systems protection to improve expert assessments reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.

    2018-01-01

    The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.

  10. Social Information Is Integrated into Value and Confidence Judgments According to Its Reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Martino, Benedetto; Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian; Nouguchi, Takao; Sharot, Tali; Love, Bradley C

    2017-06-21

    How much we like something, whether it be a bottle of wine or a new film, is affected by the opinions of others. However, the social information that we receive can be contradictory and vary in its reliability. Here, we tested whether the brain incorporates these statistics when judging value and confidence. Participants provided value judgments about consumer goods in the presence of online reviews. We found that participants updated their initial value and confidence judgments in a Bayesian fashion, taking into account both the uncertainty of their initial beliefs and the reliability of the social information. Activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex tracked the degree of belief update. Analogous to how lower-level perceptual information is integrated, we found that the human brain integrates social information according to its reliability when judging value and confidence. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The field of perceptual decision making has shown that the sensory system integrates different sources of information according to their respective reliability, as predicted by a Bayesian inference scheme. In this work, we hypothesized that a similar coding scheme is implemented by the human brain to process social signals and guide complex, value-based decisions. We provide experimental evidence that the human prefrontal cortex's activity is consistent with a Bayesian computation that integrates social information that differs in reliability and that this integration affects the neural representation of value and confidence. Copyright © 2017 De Martino et al.

  11. Vectorcardiographic diagnostic & prognostic information derived from the 12-lead electrocardiogram: Historical review and clinical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Man, Sumche; Maan, Arie C; Schalij, Martin J; Swenne, Cees A

    2015-01-01

    In the course of time, electrocardiography has assumed several modalities with varying electrode numbers, electrode positions and lead systems. 12-lead electrocardiography and 3-lead vectorcardiography have become particularly popular. These modalities developed in parallel through the mid-twentieth century. In the same time interval, the physical concepts underlying electrocardiography were defined and worked out. In particular, the vector concept (heart vector, lead vector, volume conductor) appeared to be essential to understanding the manifestations of electrical heart activity, both in the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) and in the 3-lead vectorcardiogram (VCG). Not universally appreciated in the clinic, the vectorcardiogram, and with it the vector concept, went out of use. A revival of vectorcardiography started in the 90's, when VCGs were mathematically synthesized from standard 12-lead ECGs. This facilitated combined electrocardiography and vectorcardiography without the need for a special recording system. This paper gives an overview of these historical developments, elaborates on the vector concept and seeks to define where VCG analysis/interpretation can add diagnostic/prognostic value to conventional 12-lead ECG analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Transthoracic Echocardiography Provides Important Long-Term Prognostic Information in Selected Patients Undergoing Endovascular Abdominal Aortic Repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Driscoll, Jamie M; Bahia, Sandeep S; Gravina, Angela; Di Fino, Sara; Thompson, Matthew M; Karthikesalingam, Alan; Holt, Peter J E; Sharma, Rajan

    2016-02-01

    The value of performing transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) as part of the clinical assessment of patients awaiting endovascular repair of the abdominal aorta is little evaluated. We aimed to estimate the prognostic importance of information derived from TTE on long-term all-cause mortality in a selected group of patients undergoing endovascular aneurysm repair. This was a retrospective cohort study of 273 consecutive patients selected for endovascular aneurysm repair. All patients included in the analysis underwent TTE before their procedure. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the effect of TTE measures on all-cause mortality. Over a mean follow-up of 3.2±1.5 years, there were 78 deaths with a mean time to death of 1.28±1.16 years. A greater tubular ascending aorta (hazard ratio [HR] 5.6, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.77-11.33), presence of mitral regurgitation (HR 8.13, 95% CI 4.09-12.16), lower left ventricular ejection fraction (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.98), younger age (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95-0.99), and presence of diabetes mellitus (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.24-1.89) were predictors of all-cause mortality. Echocardiography provides important long-term prognostic information in patients undergoing endovascular aneurysm repair. These TTE indices were more important at predicting outcome than standard conventional risk factors in this patient group. A greater tubular ascending aorta, presence of mitral regurgitation, reduced left ventricular ejection fraction, younger age, and diabetes mellitus were independently associated with long-term mortality. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Investigation of reliability indicators of information analysis systems based on Markov’s absorbing chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilmanshin, I. R.; Kirpichnikov, A. P.

    2017-09-01

    In the result of study of the algorithm of the functioning of the early detection module of excessive losses, it is proven the ability to model it by using absorbing Markov chains. The particular interest is in the study of probability characteristics of early detection module functioning algorithm of losses in order to identify the relationship of indicators of reliability of individual elements, or the probability of occurrence of certain events and the likelihood of transmission of reliable information. The identified relations during the analysis allow to set thresholds reliability characteristics of the system components.

  14. Modeling reliability measurement of interface on information system: Towards the forensic of rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasution, M. K. M.; Sitompul, Darwin; Harahap, Marwan

    2018-02-01

    Today almost all machines depend on the software. As a software and hardware system depends also on the rules that are the procedures for its use. If the procedure or program can be reliably characterized by involving the concept of graph, logic, and probability, then regulatory strength can also be measured accordingly. Therefore, this paper initiates an enumeration model to measure the reliability of interfaces based on the case of information systems supported by the rules of use by the relevant agencies. An enumeration model is obtained based on software reliability calculation.

  15. The Impact of the Reliability of Teleinformation Systems on the Quality of Transmitted Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stawowy Marek

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The work describes the impact the reliability of the information quality IQ for information and communication systems. One of the components of IQ is the reliability properties such as relativity, accuracy, timeliness, completeness, consistency, adequacy, accessibility, credibility, congruence. Each of these components of IQ is independent and to properly estimate the value of IQ, use one of the methods of modeling uncertainty. In this article, we used a hybrid method that has been developed jointly by one of the authors. This method is based on the mathematical theory of evidence know as Dempstera-Shafera (DS theory and serial links of dependent hybrid named IQ (hyb.

  16. Distributed Information and Control system reliability enhancement by fog-computing concept application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnik, E. V.; Klimenko, A. B.; Ivanov, D. Ya

    2018-03-01

    The paper focuses on the information and control system reliability issue. Authors of the current paper propose a new complex approach of information and control system reliability enhancement by application of the computing concept elements. The approach proposed consists of a complex of optimization problems to be solved. These problems are: estimation of computational complexity, which can be shifted to the edge of the network and fog-layer, distribution of computations among the data processing elements and distribution of computations among the sensors. The problems as well as some simulated results and discussion are formulated and presented within this paper.

  17. ACCURACY AND RELIABILITY AS CRITERIA OF INFORMATIVENESS IN THE NEWS STORY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melnikova Ekaterina Aleksandrovna

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The article clarifies the meaning of the terms accuracy and reliability of the news story, offers a researcher's approach to obtaining objective data that helps to verify linguistic means of accuracy and reliability presence in the informative structure of the text. The accuracy of the news story is defined as a high relevance degree of event reflection through language representation of its constituents; the reliability is viewed as news story originality that is proved by introducing citations and sources of information considered being trustworthy into the text content. Having based the research on an event nominative density identification method, the author composed nominative charts of 115 news story texts, collected at web-sites of BBC and CNN media corporations; distinguished qualitative and quantitative markers of accuracy and reliability in the news story text; confirmed that the accuracy of the news story is achieved with terminological clearness in nominating event constituents in the text, thematic bind between words, presence of onyms that help deeply identify characteristics of the referent event. The reliability of the text is discovered in eyewitness accounts, quotations, and references to the sources being considered as trustworthy. Accurate revision of associations between accuracy and reliability and informing strategies in digital news nets allowed the author to set two variants of information delivery, that differ in their communicative and pragmatic functions: developing (that informs about major and minor details of an event and truncated (which gives some details thus raising the interest to the event and urging a reader to open a full story.

  18. A Method to Increase Drivers' Trust in Collision Warning Systems Based on Reliability Information of Sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Shigeyoshi; Wada, Takahiro; Akita, Tokihiko; Doi, Shun'ichi

    Driver's workload tends to be increased during driving under complicated traffic environments like a lane change. In such cases, rear collision warning is effective for reduction of cognitive workload. On the other hand, it is pointed out that false alarm or missing alarm caused by sensor errors leads to decrease of driver' s trust in the warning system and it can result in low efficiency of the system. Suppose that reliability information of the sensor is provided in real-time. In this paper, we propose a new warning method to increase driver' s trust in the system even with low sensor reliability utilizing the sensor reliability information. The effectiveness of the warning methods is shown by driving simulator experiments.

  19. Epistemic Trust and Education: Effects of Informant Reliability on Student Learning of Decimal Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durkin, Kelley; Shafto, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    The epistemic trust literature emphasizes that children's evaluations of informants' trustworthiness affects learning, but there is no evidence that epistemic trust affects learning in academic domains. The current study investigated how reliability affects decimal learning. Fourth and fifth graders (N = 122; M[subscript age] = 10.1 years)…

  20. INNOVATIVE METHODS TO EVALUATE THE RELIABILITY OF INFORMATION CONSOLIDATED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina P. Kurochkina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article explores the possibility of using foreign innovative methods to assess the reliabilityof information consolidated fi nancial statements of Russian companies. Recommendations aremade under their adaptation and applicationinto commercial organizations. Banish methodindicators are implemented in one of the world’s largest vertically integrated steel and miningcompanies. Audit firms are proposed to usemethods of assessing the reliability of information in the practical application of ISA.

  1. reliability reliability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Corresponding author, Tel: +234-703. RELIABILITY .... V , , given by the code of practice. However, checks must .... an optimization procedure over the failure domain F corresponding .... of Concrete Members based on Utility Theory,. Technical ...

  2. Three-question set from Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument adds independent prognostic information on cardiovascular outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seferovic, Jelena P; Pfeffer, Marc A; Claggett, Brian

    2018-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The self-administered Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument (MNSI) is used to diagnose diabetic peripheral neuropathy. We examined whether the MNSI might also provide information on risk of death and cardiovascular outcomes. METHODS: In this post hoc analysis of the Aliskiren...

  3. Fog-computing concept usage as means to enhance information and control system reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melnik, E. V.; Klimenko, A. B.; Ivanov, D. Ya

    2018-05-01

    This paper focuses on the reliability issue of information and control systems (ICS). The authors propose using the elements of the fog-computing concept to enhance the reliability function. The key idea of fog-computing is to shift computations to the fog-layer of the network, and thus to decrease the workload of the communication environment and data processing components. As for ICS, workload also can be distributed among sensors, actuators and network infrastructure facilities near the sources of data. The authors simulated typical workload distribution situations for the “traditional” ICS architecture and for the one with fogcomputing concept elements usage. The paper contains some models, selected simulation results and conclusion about the prospects of the fog-computing as a means to enhance ICS reliability.

  4. The Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS): A Review of Validity and Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    O’CONNOR, MELISSA; DAVITT, JOAN K.

    2015-01-01

    The Outcome and Assessment Information Set (OASIS) is the patient-specific, standardized assessment used in Medicare home health care to plan care, determine reimbursement, and measure quality. Since its inception in 1999, there has been debate over the reliability and validity of the OASIS as a research tool and outcome measure. A systematic literature review of English-language articles identified 12 studies published in the last 10 years examining the validity and reliability of the OASIS. Empirical findings indicate the validity and reliability of the OASIS range from low to moderate but vary depending on the item studied. Limitations in the existing research include: nonrepresentative samples; inconsistencies in methods used, items tested, measurement, and statistical procedures; and the changes to the OASIS itself over time. The inconsistencies suggest that these results are tentative at best; additional research is needed to confirm the value of the OASIS for measuring patient outcomes, research, and quality improvement. PMID:23216513

  5. A Bayesian reliability evaluation method with integrated accelerated degradation testing and field information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Lizhi; Pan, Rong; Li, Xiaoyang; Jiang, Tongmin

    2013-01-01

    Accelerated degradation testing (ADT) is a common approach in reliability prediction, especially for products with high reliability. However, oftentimes the laboratory condition of ADT is different from the field condition; thus, to predict field failure, one need to calibrate the prediction made by using ADT data. In this paper a Bayesian evaluation method is proposed to integrate the ADT data from laboratory with the failure data from field. Calibration factors are introduced to calibrate the difference between the lab and the field conditions so as to predict a product's actual field reliability more accurately. The information fusion and statistical inference procedure are carried out through a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The proposed method is demonstrated by two examples and the sensitivity analysis to prior distribution assumption

  6. Creation of reliable relevance judgments in information retrieval systems evaluation experimentation through crowdsourcing: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samimi, Parnia; Ravana, Sri Devi

    2014-01-01

    Test collection is used to evaluate the information retrieval systems in laboratory-based evaluation experimentation. In a classic setting, generating relevance judgments involves human assessors and is a costly and time consuming task. Researchers and practitioners are still being challenged in performing reliable and low-cost evaluation of retrieval systems. Crowdsourcing as a novel method of data acquisition is broadly used in many research fields. It has been proven that crowdsourcing is an inexpensive and quick solution as well as a reliable alternative for creating relevance judgments. One of the crowdsourcing applications in IR is to judge relevancy of query document pair. In order to have a successful crowdsourcing experiment, the relevance judgment tasks should be designed precisely to emphasize quality control. This paper is intended to explore different factors that have an influence on the accuracy of relevance judgments accomplished by workers and how to intensify the reliability of judgments in crowdsourcing experiment.

  7. Pre-Proposal Assessment of Reliability for Spacecraft Docking with Limited Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brall, Aron

    2013-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of estimating the reliability of a critical system function as well as its impact on the system reliability when limited information is available. The approach addresses the basic function reliability, and then the impact of multiple attempts to accomplish the function. The dependence of subsequent attempts on prior failure to accomplish the function is also addressed. The autonomous docking of two spacecraft was the specific example that generated the inquiry, and the resultant impact on total reliability generated substantial interest in presenting the results due to the relative insensitivity of overall performance to basic function reliability and moderate degradation given sufficient attempts to try and accomplish the required goal. The application of the methodology allows proper emphasis on the characteristics that can be estimated with some knowledge, and to insulate the integrity of the design from those characteristics that can't be properly estimated with any rational value of uncertainty. The nature of NASA's missions contains a great deal of uncertainty due to the pursuit of new science or operations. This approach can be applied to any function where multiple attempts at success, with or without degradation, are allowed.

  8. Use and perceptions of information among family physicians: sources considered accessible, relevant, and reliable.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosteniuk, Julie G; Morgan, Debra G; D'Arcy, Carl K

    2013-01-01

    The research determined (1) the information sources that family physicians (FPs) most commonly use to update their general medical knowledge and to make specific clinical decisions, and (2) the information sources FPs found to be most physically accessible, intellectually accessible (easy to understand), reliable (trustworthy), and relevant to their needs. A cross-sectional postal survey of 792 FPs and locum tenens, in full-time or part-time medical practice, currently practicing or on leave of absence in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan was conducted during the period of January to April 2008. Of 666 eligible physicians, 331 completed and returned surveys, resulting in a response rate of 49.7% (331/666). Medical textbooks and colleagues in the main patient care setting were the top 2 sources for the purpose of making specific clinical decisions. Medical textbooks were most frequently considered by FPs to be reliable (trustworthy), and colleagues in the main patient care setting were most physically accessible (easy to access). When making specific clinical decisions, FPs were most likely to use information from sources that they considered to be reliable and generally physically accessible, suggesting that FPs can best be supported by facilitating easy and convenient access to high-quality information.

  9. Interventions to assist health consumers to find reliable online health information: a comprehensive review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Health information on the Internet is ubiquitous, and its use by health consumers prevalent. Finding and understanding relevant online health information, and determining content reliability, pose real challenges for many health consumers. PURPOSE: To identify the types of interventions that have been implemented to assist health consumers to find reliable online health information, and where possible, describe and compare the types of outcomes studied. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Library databases; WorldCat and Scirus 'gray literature' search engines; and manual review of reference lists of selected publications. STUDY SELECTION: Publications were selected by firstly screening title, abstract, and then full text. DATA EXTRACTION: Seven publications met the inclusion criteria, and were summarized in a data extraction form. The form incorporated the PICOS (Population Intervention Comparators Outcomes and Study Design Model. Two eligible gray literature papers were also reported. DATA SYNTHESIS: Relevant data from included studies were tabulated to enable descriptive comparison. A brief critique of each study was included in the tables. This review was unable to follow systematic review methods due to the paucity of research and humanistic interventions reported. LIMITATIONS: While extensive, the gray literature search may have had limited reach in some countries. The paucity of research on this topic limits conclusions that may be drawn. CONCLUSIONS: The few eligible studies predominantly adopted a didactic approach to assisting health consumers, whereby consumers were either taught how to find credible websites, or how to use the Internet. Common types of outcomes studied include knowledge and skills pertaining to Internet use and searching for reliable health information. These outcomes were predominantly self-assessed by participants. There is potential for further research to explore other avenues for

  10. Interventions to assist health consumers to find reliable online health information: a comprehensive review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kenneth; Hoti, Kreshnik; Hughes, Jeffery D; Emmerton, Lynne M

    2014-01-01

    Health information on the Internet is ubiquitous, and its use by health consumers prevalent. Finding and understanding relevant online health information, and determining content reliability, pose real challenges for many health consumers. To identify the types of interventions that have been implemented to assist health consumers to find reliable online health information, and where possible, describe and compare the types of outcomes studied. PubMed, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Library databases; WorldCat and Scirus 'gray literature' search engines; and manual review of reference lists of selected publications. Publications were selected by firstly screening title, abstract, and then full text. Seven publications met the inclusion criteria, and were summarized in a data extraction form. The form incorporated the PICOS (Population Intervention Comparators Outcomes and Study Design) Model. Two eligible gray literature papers were also reported. Relevant data from included studies were tabulated to enable descriptive comparison. A brief critique of each study was included in the tables. This review was unable to follow systematic review methods due to the paucity of research and humanistic interventions reported. While extensive, the gray literature search may have had limited reach in some countries. The paucity of research on this topic limits conclusions that may be drawn. The few eligible studies predominantly adopted a didactic approach to assisting health consumers, whereby consumers were either taught how to find credible websites, or how to use the Internet. Common types of outcomes studied include knowledge and skills pertaining to Internet use and searching for reliable health information. These outcomes were predominantly self-assessed by participants. There is potential for further research to explore other avenues for assisting health consumers to find reliable online health information, and to assess outcomes via objective measures.

  11. Toddlers favor communicatively presented information over statistical reliability in learning about artifacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Marno

    Full Text Available Observed associations between events can be validated by statistical information of reliability or by testament of communicative sources. We tested whether toddlers learn from their own observation of efficiency, assessed by statistical information on reliability of interventions, or from communicatively presented demonstration, when these two potential types of evidence of validity of interventions on a novel artifact are contrasted with each other. Eighteen-month-old infants observed two adults, one operating the artifact by a method that was more efficient (2/3 probability of success than that of the other (1/3 probability of success. Compared to the Baseline condition, in which communicative signals were not employed, infants tended to choose the less reliable method to operate the artifact when this method was demonstrated in a communicative manner in the Experimental condition. This finding demonstrates that, in certain circumstances, communicative sanctioning of reliability may override statistical evidence for young learners. Such a bias can serve fast and efficient transmission of knowledge between generations.

  12. Maintenance-based prognostics of nuclear plant equipment for long-term operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welz, Zachary; Coble, Jamie; Upadhyaya, Belle; Hines, Wes [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States)

    2017-08-15

    While industry understands the importance of keeping equipment operational and well maintained, the importance of tracking maintenance information in reliability models is often overlooked. Prognostic models can be used to predict the failure times of critical equipment, but more often than not, these models assume that all maintenance actions are the same or do not consider maintenance at all. This study investigates the influence of integrating maintenance information on prognostic model prediction accuracy. By incorporating maintenance information to develop maintenance-dependent prognostic models, prediction accuracy was improved by more than 40% compared with traditional maintenance-independent models. This study acts as a proof of concept, showing the importance of utilizing maintenance information in modern prognostics for industrial equipment.

  13. Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making.

  14. Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung

    2015-01-01

    One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making

  15. Reliability, Validity, Comparability and Practical Utility of Cybercrime-Related Data, Metrics, and Information

    OpenAIRE

    Nir Kshetri

    2013-01-01

    With an increasing pervasiveness, prevalence and severity of cybercrimes, various metrics, measures and statistics have been developed and used to measure various aspects of this phenomenon. Cybercrime-related data, metrics, and information, however, pose important and difficult dilemmas regarding the issues of reliability, validity, comparability and practical utility. While many of the issues of the cybercrime economy are similar to other underground and underworld industries, this economy ...

  16. The Data Reliability of Volunteered Geographic Information with Using Traffic Accident Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sevinç, H. K.; Karaş, I. R.

    2017-11-01

    The development of mobile technologies is important in the lives of humans. Mobile devices constitute a great part of the daily lives of people. It has come to such a point that when people first wake up, they check their smart phones for the first thing. Users may share their positions with the GNSS sensors in mobile devices or they can add information about their positions in mobile applications. Users contribute to Geographical Information System with this sharing. These users consist of native (citizens) living in that geographical position not of the CBS specialists. Creating, collecting, sharing and disseminating the geographical data provided by voluntary individuals constitute the Volunteered Geographic Information System. The data in the Volunteered Geographic Information System are received from amateur users. "How reliable will the data received from amateur users instead of specialists of the field be in scientific terms?" In this study, the reliability between the data received from the voluntary users through Volunteered Geographic Information System and real data is investigated. The real data consist of the traffic accident coordinates. The data that will be received from users will be received through the speed values in the relevant coordinates and the marking of the users for possible accident points on the map.

  17. Online patient information on Vagus Nerve Stimulation: How reliable is it for facilitating shared decision making?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ved, Ronak; Cobbold, Naomi; Igbagiri, Kueni; Willis, Mark; Leach, Paul; Zaben, Malik

    2017-08-01

    This study evaluates the quality of information available on the internet for carers of children with epilepsy considering treatment with Vagus Nerve Stimulation (VNS). Selected key phrases were entered into two popular search engines (Google™, Yahoo™). These phrases were: "Vagus nerve stimulator", alone and in combination with "childhood epilepsy", "paediatric epilepsy" and "epilepsy in childhood"; "VNS", and "VNS epilepsy". The first 50 hits per search were then screened. Of 600 identified sites, duplicated (262), irrelevant (230) and inaccessible (15) results were excluded. 93 websites were identified for evaluation using the DISCERN instrument, an online validation tool for patient information websites. The mean DISCERN score of all analysed websites was 39/80 (49%; SD 13.5). This equates to Fair to borderline Poor global quality, (Excellent=80-63; Good=62-51; Fair=50-39; Poor=38-27; Very poor=26-15). None of the analysed sites obtained an Excellent quality rating. 13% (12) obtained a Good score, 40% (37) obtained an Average score, 35% (33) obtained a Poor score, and 12% (11) obtained a Very poor score. The cohort of websites scored particularly poorly on assessment of whether reliable, holistic information was presented, for instance provision of reliable sources, (28%, SD 18) and discussion of alternative treatments, (30%, SD 14). To facilitate patient-centred shared decision-making, high quality information needs to be available for patients and families considering VNS. This study identifies that such information is difficult to locate on the internet. There is a need to develop focussed and reliable online patient resources for VNS. Copyright © 2017 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. METHODS OF IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF THE CONTROL SYSTEM TRACTION POWER SUPPLY OF ELECTRIC TRANSPORT BASED ON AN EXPERT INFORMATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. O. Matusevych

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available The author proposed the numerous methods of solving the multi-criterion task – increasing of reliability of control system on the basis of expert information. The information, which allows choosing thoughtfully the method of reliability increasing for a control system of electric transport, is considered.

  19. GP preferences for information systems: conjoint analysis of speed, reliability, access and users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyatt, Jeremy C; Batley, Richard P; Keen, Justin

    2010-10-01

    To elicit the preferences and trade-offs of UK general practitioners about key features of health information systems, to help inform the design of such systems in future. A stated choice study to uncover implicit preferences based on a binary choice between scenarios presented in random order. were all 303 general practice members of the UK Internet service provider, Medix who were approached by email to participate. The main outcome measure was the number of seconds delay in system response that general practitioners were willing to trade off for each key system feature: the reliability of the system, the sites from which the system could be accessed and which staff are able to view patient data. Doctors valued speed of response most in information systems but would be prepared to wait 28 seconds to access a system in exchange for improved reliability from 95% to 99%, a further 2 seconds for an improvement to 99.9% and 27 seconds for access to data from anywhere including their own home compared with one place in a single health care premises. However, they would require a system that was 14 seconds faster to compensate for allowing social care as well as National Health Service staff to read patient data. These results provide important new evidence about which system characteristics doctors value highly, and hence which characteristics designers need to focus on when large scale health information systems are planned. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Reliability Assessment of Cloud Computing Platform Based on Semiquantitative Information and Evidential Reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hang Wei

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reliability assessment method based on evidential reasoning (ER rule and semiquantitative information is proposed in this paper, where a new reliability assessment architecture including four aspects with both quantitative data and qualitative knowledge is established. The assessment architecture is more objective in describing complex dynamic cloud computing environment than that in traditional method. In addition, the ER rule which has good performance for multiple attribute decision making problem is employed to integrate different types of the attributes in assessment architecture, which can obtain more accurate assessment results. The assessment results of the case study in an actual cloud computing platform verify the effectiveness and the advantage of the proposed method.

  1. Can Internet information on vertebroplasty be a reliable means of patient self-education?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, T Barrett; Anderson, Joshua T; Ahn, Uri M; Ahn, Nicholas U

    2014-05-01

    regarding vertebroplasty is not only inadequate for proper patient education, but also potentially misleading as sites are more likely to present benefits of the procedure than risks. Although academic sites might be expected to offer higher-quality information than private, industry, or other sites, our data would suggest that they do not. HONCode certification cannot be used reliably as a means of qualifying website information quality. Academic sites should be expected to set a high standard and alter their Internet presence with adequate information distribution. Certification bodies also should alter their standards to necessitate provision of complete information in addition to emphasizing accurate information. Treating physicians may want to counsel their patients regarding the limitations of information present on the Internet and the pitfalls of current certification systems. Level IV, economic and decision analyses. See the Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  2. Molecular classification of endometrial carcinoma on diagnostic specimens is highly concordant with final hysterectomy: Earlier prognostic information to guide treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talhouk, Aline; Hoang, Lien N; McConechy, Melissa K; Nakonechny, Quentin; Leo, Joyce; Cheng, Angela; Leung, Samuel; Yang, Winnie; Lum, Amy; Köbel, Martin; Lee, Cheng-Han; Soslow, Robert A; Huntsman, David G; Gilks, C Blake; McAlpine, Jessica N

    2016-10-01

    Categorization and risk stratification of endometrial carcinomas is inadequate; histomorphologic assessment shows considerable interobserver variability, and risk of metastases and recurrence can only be derived after surgical staging. We have developed a Proactive Molecular Risk classification tool for Endometrial cancers (ProMisE) that identifies four distinct prognostic subgroups. Our objective was to assess whether molecular classification could be performed on diagnostic endometrial specimens obtained prior to surgical staging and its concordance with molecular classification performed on the subsequent hysterectomy specimen. Sequencing of tumors for exonuclease domain mutations (EDMs) in POLE and immunohistochemistry for mismatch repair (MMR) proteins and p53 were applied to both pre- and post-staging archival specimens from 60 individuals to identify four molecular subgroups: MMR-D, POLE EDM, p53 wild type, p53 abn (abnormal). Three gynecologic subspecialty pathologists assigned histotype and grade to a subset of samples. Concordance of molecular and clinicopathologic subgroup assignments were determined, comparing biopsy/curetting to hysterectomy specimens. Complete molecular and pathologic categorization was achieved in 57 cases. Concordance metrics for pre- vs. post-staging endometrial samples categorized by ProMisE were highly favorable; average per ProMisE class sensitivity(0.9), specificity(0.96), PPV(0.9), NPV(0.96) and kappa statistic 0.86(95%CI, 0.72-0.93), indicating excellent agreement. We observed the highest level of concordance for 'p53 abn' tumors, the group associated with the worst prognosis. In contrast, grade and histotype assignment from original pathology reports pre- vs. post-staging showed only moderate levels of agreement (kappa=0.55 and 0.44 respectively); even with subspecialty pathology review only moderate levels of agreement were observed. Molecular classification can be achieved on diagnostic endometrial samples and accurately

  3. CT-based texture analysis potentially provides prognostic information complementary to interim fdg-pet for patients with hodgkin's and aggressive non-hodgkin's lymphomas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ganeshan, B.; Miles, K.A.; Shortman, R.; Afaq, A.; Ardeshna, K.M.; Groves, A.M.; Kayani, I.; Babikir, S.

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of computed tomography texture analysis (CTTA) to provide additional prognostic information in patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) and high-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). This retrospective, pilot-study approved by the IRB comprised 45 lymphoma patients undergoing routine 18F-FDG-PET-CT. Progression-free survival (PFS) was determined from clinical follow-up (mean-duration: 40 months; range: 10-62 months). Non-contrast-enhanced low-dose CT images were submitted to CTTA comprising image filtration to highlight features of different sizes followed by histogram-analysis using kurtosis. Prognostic value of CTTA was compared to PET FDG-uptake value, tumour-stage, tumour-bulk, lymphoma-type, treatment-regime, and interim FDG-PET (iPET) status using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox regression analysis determined the independence of significantly prognostic imaging and clinical features. A total of 27 patients had aggressive NHL and 18 had HL. Mean PFS was 48.5 months. There was no significant difference in pre-treatment CTTA between the lymphoma sub-types. Kaplan-Meier analysis found pre-treatment CTTA (medium feature scale, p=0.010) and iPET status (p<0.001) to be significant predictors of PFS. Cox analysis revealed that an interaction between pre-treatment CTTA and iPET status was the only independent predictor of PFS (HR: 25.5, 95% CI: 5.4-120, p<0.001). Specifically, pre-treatment CTTA risk stratified patients with negative iPET. CTTA can potentially provide prognostic information complementary to iPET for patients with HL and aggressive NHL. (orig.)

  4. Is the information about dengue available on Brazilian websites of quality and reliable?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thiago Henrique de Lima

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to identify and evaluate the content of information about dengue available on Brazilian websites. Thirty-two websites were selected for the analysis. For the evaluation of the content of information about dengue, a form was prepared with 16 topics grouped in six information blocks: etiology/transmission, vector, control and prevention, disease/diagnosis, treatment and epidemiology. The websites were also evaluated according to the following criteria: authorship, update, language, interactivity, scientific basis and graphic elements. The results showed a predominantly lack of information in relation to the topics analyzed in each information block. Regarding the technical quality of the websites, only 28.1% showed some indication of scientific basis and 34.3% contained the date of publication or of the last update. Such results attested the low reliability of the selected websites. Knowing that the internet is an efficient mechanism for disseminating information on health topics, we concluded that the creation of such mechanisms to disseminate correct and comprehensive information about dengue is necessary in order to apply this useful tool in the prevention and control of the disease in Brazil.

  5. The role of quality tools in assessing reliability of the internet for health information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanif, Faisal; Read, Janet C; Goodacre, John A; Chaudhry, Afzal; Gibbs, Paul

    2009-12-01

    The Internet has made it possible for patients and their families to access vast quantities of information that previously would have been difficult for anyone but a physician or librarian to obtain. Health information websites, however, are recognised to differ widely in quality and reliability of their content. This has led to the development of various codes of conduct or quality rating tools to assess the quality of health websites. However, the validity and reliability of these quality tools and their applicability to different health websites also varies. In principle, rating tools should be available to consumers, require a limited number of elements to be assessed, be assessable in all elements, be readable and be able to gauge the readability and consistency of information provided from a patient's view point. This article reviews the literature on the trends of the Internet use for health and analyses various codes of conduct/ethics or 'quality tools' available to monitor the quality of health websites from a patient perspective.

  6. The European reliability data system. An organized information exchange on the operation of European nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mancini, G.; Amesz, J.; Bastianini, P.; Capobianchi, S.

    1983-01-01

    The paper revises the aims and objectives of the European Reliability Data System (ERDS), a centralized system collecting and organizing, at European level, information related to the operation of LWRs. The ERDS project was started in 1977 and after a preliminary feasibility study that ended in 1979 is now proceeding towards the final design and implementation stages. ERDS exploits information collected in national data systems and information deriving from single reactor sources. The paper describes first the development of the four data banks constituting the system: Component Event Data Bank, CEDB; Abnormal Occurrences Reporting System, AORS; Operating Unit Status Report, OUSR; and Generic Reliability Parameter Data Bank, GRPDB. Several typical aspects concerning the project are then outlined from the need of homogeneization of data and therefore the need for setting up reference classifications, to the problem of data transcoding and input into the system. Furthermore, the need is stressed of involving much more deeply nuclear power plant operators into the process of data acquisition by providing them with a useful feedback from the data analysis. (author)

  7. Methods for Calculating Frequency of Maintenance of Complex Information Security System Based on Dynamics of Its Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varlataya, S. K.; Evdokimov, V. E.; Urzov, A. Y.

    2017-11-01

    This article describes a process of calculating a certain complex information security system (CISS) reliability using the example of the technospheric security management model as well as ability to determine the frequency of its maintenance using the system reliability parameter which allows one to assess man-made risks and to forecast natural and man-made emergencies. The relevance of this article is explained by the fact the CISS reliability is closely related to information security (IS) risks. Since reliability (or resiliency) is a probabilistic characteristic of the system showing the possibility of its failure (and as a consequence - threats to the protected information assets emergence), it is seen as a component of the overall IS risk in the system. As it is known, there is a certain acceptable level of IS risk assigned by experts for a particular information system; in case of reliability being a risk-forming factor maintaining an acceptable risk level should be carried out by the routine analysis of the condition of CISS and its elements and their timely service. The article presents a reliability parameter calculation for the CISS with a mixed type of element connection, a formula of the dynamics of such system reliability is written. The chart of CISS reliability change is a S-shaped curve which can be divided into 3 periods: almost invariable high level of reliability, uniform reliability reduction, almost invariable low level of reliability. Setting the minimum acceptable level of reliability, the graph (or formula) can be used to determine the period of time during which the system would meet requirements. Ideally, this period should not be longer than the first period of the graph. Thus, the proposed method of calculating the CISS maintenance frequency helps to solve a voluminous and critical task of the information assets risk management.

  8. [The analytical reliability of clinical laboratory information and role of the standards in its support].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men'shikov, V V

    2012-12-01

    The article deals with the factors impacting the reliability of clinical laboratory information. The differences of qualities of laboratory analysis tools produced by various manufacturers are discussed. These characteristics are the causes of discrepancy of the results of laboratory analyses of the same analite. The role of the reference system in supporting the comparability of laboratory analysis results is demonstrated. The project of national standard is presented to regulate the requirements to standards and calibrators for analysis of qualitative and non-metrical characteristics of components of biomaterials.

  9. Based on Weibull Information Fusion Analysis Semiconductors Quality the Key Technology of Manufacturing Execution Systems Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhi-Hui; Tang, Ying-Chun; Dai, Kai

    2016-05-01

    Semiconductor materials and Product qualified rate are directly related to the manufacturing costs and survival of the enterprise. Application a dynamic reliability growth analysis method studies manufacturing execution system reliability growth to improve product quality. Refer to classical Duane model assumptions and tracking growth forecasts the TGP programming model, through the failure data, established the Weibull distribution model. Combining with the median rank of average rank method, through linear regression and least squares estimation method, match respectively weibull information fusion reliability growth curve. This assumption model overcome Duane model a weakness which is MTBF point estimation accuracy is not high, through the analysis of the failure data show that the method is an instance of the test and evaluation modeling process are basically identical. Median rank in the statistics is used to determine the method of random variable distribution function, which is a good way to solve the problem of complex systems such as the limited sample size. Therefore this method has great engineering application value.

  10. Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee; Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup

    2015-01-01

    In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF

  11. Threshold Estimation of Generalized Pareto Distribution Based on Akaike Information Criterion for Accurate Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, Seunghoon; Lim, Woochul; Cho, Su-gil; Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Minuk; Choi, Jong-su; Hong, Sup [Korea Research Insitute of Ships and Ocean Engineering, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-02-15

    In order to perform estimations with high reliability, it is necessary to deal with the tail part of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) in greater detail compared to an overall CDF. The use of a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to model the tail part of a CDF is receiving more research attention with the goal of performing estimations with high reliability. Current studies on GPDs focus on ways to determine the appropriate number of sample points and their parameters. However, even if a proper estimation is made, it can be inaccurate as a result of an incorrect threshold value. Therefore, in this paper, a GPD based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) is proposed to improve the accuracy of the tail model. The proposed method determines an accurate threshold value using the AIC with the overall samples before estimating the GPD over the threshold. To validate the accuracy of the method, its reliability is compared with that obtained using a general GPD model with an empirical CDF.

  12. Structured information analysis for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun; Ha, Jae Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)

    2000-02-01

    More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest SIA (Structured Information Analysis) for HRA. The proposed SIA consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis module that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis, systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task. 48 refs., 12 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  13. Reliability, Validity, Comparability and Practical Utility of Cybercrime-Related Data, Metrics, and Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Kshetri

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available With an increasing pervasiveness, prevalence and severity of cybercrimes, various metrics, measures and statistics have been developed and used to measure various aspects of this phenomenon. Cybercrime-related data, metrics, and information, however, pose important and difficult dilemmas regarding the issues of reliability, validity, comparability and practical utility. While many of the issues of the cybercrime economy are similar to other underground and underworld industries, this economy also has various unique aspects. For one thing, this industry also suffers from a problem partly rooted in the incredibly broad definition of the term “cybercrime”. This article seeks to provide insights and analysis into this phenomenon, which is expected to advance our understanding into cybercrime-related information.

  14. [The external evaluation of study quality: the role in maintaining the reliability of laboratory information].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men'shikov, V V

    2013-08-01

    The external evaluation of quality of clinical laboratory examinations was gradually introduced in USSR medical laboratories since 1970s. In Russia, in the middle of 1990 a unified all-national system of external evaluation quality was organized known as the Federal center of external evaluation of quality at the basis of laboratory of the state research center of preventive medicine. The main positions of policy in this area were neatly formulated in the guidance documents of ministry of Health. Nowadays, the center of external evaluation of quality proposes 100 and more types of control studies and permanently extends their specter starting from interests of different disciplines of clinical medicine. The consistent participation of laboratories in the cycles of external evaluation of quality intrinsically promotes improvement of indicators of properness and precision of analysis results and increases reliability of laboratory information. However, a significant percentage of laboratories does not participate at all in external evaluation of quality or takes part in control process irregularly and in limited number of tests. The managers of a number of medical organizations disregard the application of the proposed possibilities to increase reliability of laboratory information and limit financing of studies in the field of quality control. The article proposes to adopt the national standard on the basis of ISO 17043 "Evaluation of compliance. The common requirements of professional competence testing".

  15. A data-informed PIF hierarchy for model-based Human Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groth, Katrina M.; Mosleh, Ali

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses three problems associated with the use of Performance Shaping Factors in Human Reliability Analysis. (1) There are more than a dozen Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods that use Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) or Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) to model human performance, but there is not a standard set of PIFs used among the methods, nor is there a framework available to compare the PIFs used in various methods. (2) The PIFs currently in use are not defined specifically enough to ensure consistent interpretation of similar PIFs across methods. (3) There are few rules governing the creation, definition, and usage of PIF sets. This paper introduces a hierarchical set of PIFs that can be used for both qualitative and quantitative HRA. The proposed PIF set is arranged in a hierarchy that can be collapsed or expanded to meet multiple objectives. The PIF hierarchy has been developed with respect to a set fundamental principles necessary for PIF sets, which are also introduced in this paper. This paper includes definitions of the PIFs to allow analysts to map the proposed PIFs onto current and future HRA methods. The standardized PIF hierarchy will allow analysts to combine different types of data and will therefore make the best use of the limited data in HRA. The collapsible hierarchy provides the structure necessary to combine multiple types of information without reducing the quality of the information.

  16. Development and Validation of a Lifecycle-based Prognostics Architecture with Test Bed Validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hines, J. Wesley [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Upadhyaya, Belle [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Sharp, Michael [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jeffries, Brien [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Nam, Alan [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Strong, Eric [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Tong, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Welz, Zachary [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Barbieri, Federico [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Langford, Seth [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Meinweiser, Gregory [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Weeks, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2014-11-06

    On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for

  17. The availability of reliable information about medicines in Serbia for health professionals summary of product characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đukić Ljiljana C.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction Today, there are many drugs for the treatment of a large number of indicator areas. Significant financial resources are invested in research with the aim of introducing reliable therapeutics to therapy. Therefore, it is necessary to provide health care professionals exact information about new therapies. The overall process of scientific data, ideas and information exchange is possible through numerous communications of modern IT tools. Methodology According to the Law, key information on registered drug is included in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SPC for health professionals, which is harmonized with EU directives and regulations (SmPC.Protocol content and structure of the information provided in SPC is determined in the guidelines of the EU, therefore, a unique set of data is established for all the drugs registered in Serbia. Topic This paper presents the key segments of SPC, with special reference to the description of the regulations that are required for data related to indications, mechanism of action, dosage, contraindications, side effects, interactions and other important information regarding the profile of the drug, which are standardized and harmonized with the structure of identical documents which operate at the EU level, or EMEA. Conclusions SPC is the regulatory determined technical document on medicinal products in the RS in which there are listed scientifically proven, clinical and pharmacological data and information on the profile of the drug, which are essential for health professionals - doctors and pharmacists in the implementation of pharmacotherapy in our society. This document is the starting point for the development of applied Pharmacoinformatics and it includes a range of activities important for the development of appropriate manuals and makes available data and information for monitoring indicators of the national policy on drugs and modern effective drugs treatment.

  18. Waste container weighing data processing to create reliable information of household waste generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korhonen, Pirjo; Kaila, Juha

    2015-05-01

    Household mixed waste container weighing data was processed by knowledge discovery and data mining techniques to create reliable information of household waste generation. The final data set included 27,865 weight measurements covering the whole year 2013 and it was selected from a database of Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority, Finland. The data set contains mixed household waste arising in 6m(3) containers and it was processed identifying missing values and inconsistently low and high values as errors. The share of missing values and errors in the data set was 0.6%. This provides evidence that the waste weighing data gives reliable information of mixed waste generation at collection point level. Characteristic of mixed household waste arising at the waste collection point level is a wide variation between pickups. The seasonal variation pattern as a result of collective similarities in behaviour of households was clearly detected by smoothed medians of waste weight time series. The evaluation of the collection time series against the defined distribution range of pickup weights on the waste collection point level shows that 65% of the pickups were from collection points with optimally dimensioned container capacity and the collection points with over- and under-dimensioned container capacities were noted in 9.5% and 3.4% of all pickups, respectively. Occasional extra waste in containers occurred in 21.2% of the pickups indicating the irregular behaviour of individual households. The results of this analysis show that processing waste weighing data using knowledge discovery and data mining techniques provides trustworthy information of household waste generation and its variations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Key attributes of the SAPHIRE risk and reliability analysis software for risk-informed probabilistic applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Curtis; Knudsen, James; Kvarfordt, Kellie; Wood, Ted

    2008-01-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory is a primary developer of probabilistic risk and reliability analysis (PRRA) tools, dating back over 35 years. Evolving from mainframe-based software, the current state-of-the-practice has led to the creation of the SAPHIRE software. Currently, agencies such as the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the National Aeronautics and Aerospace Agency, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Defense use version 7 of the SAPHIRE software for many of their risk-informed activities. In order to better understand and appreciate the power of software as part of risk-informed applications, we need to recall that our current analysis methods and solution methods have built upon pioneering work done 30-40 years ago. We contrast this work with the current capabilities in the SAPHIRE analysis package. As part of this discussion, we provide information for both the typical features and special analysis capabilities, which are available. We also present the application and results typically found with state-of-the-practice PRRA models. By providing both a high-level and detailed look at the SAPHIRE software, we give a snapshot in time for the current use of software tools in a risk-informed decision arena

  20. Visual reliability and information rate in the retina of a nocturnal bee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederiksen, Rikard; Wcislo, William T; Warrant, Eric J

    2008-03-11

    Nocturnal animals relying on vision typically have eyes that are optically and morphologically adapted for both increased sensitivity and greater information capacity in dim light. Here, we investigate whether adaptations for increased sensitivity also are found in their photoreceptors by using closely related and fast-flying nocturnal and diurnal bees as model animals. The nocturnal bee Megalopta genalis is capable of foraging and homing by using visually discriminated landmarks at starlight intensities. Megalopta's near relative, Lasioglossum leucozonium, performs these tasks only in bright sunshine. By recording intracellular responses to Gaussian white-noise stimuli, we show that photoreceptors in Megalopta actually code less information at most light levels than those in Lasioglossum. However, as in several other nocturnal arthropods, Megalopta's photoreceptors possess a much greater gain of transduction, indicating that nocturnal photoreceptors trade information capacity for sensitivity. By sacrificing photoreceptor signal-to-noise ratio and information capacity in dim light for an increased gain and, thus, an increased sensitivity, this strategy can benefit nocturnal insects that use neural summation to improve visual reliability at night.

  1. Analysis of prognostic value of clinical information and myocardial perfusion imaging in diabetic patients on cardiac events occurrence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Zhifang; Li Sijin

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To explore the risk factors of cardiac event (CE) occurrence and evaluate the prognostic value of myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) in diabetic patients. Methods: We conducted a study with 172(16.4%) consecutively registered patients with diabetes (132 males, 40 females; age range 16-90 years, mean age 55.94±12.46 years) and 875(83.6%) patients without diabetes with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing SPECT MPI. Follow-up information was obtained through telephone interviews. Patients were followed up for at least 18 months. End points were defined as death due to primary cardiac cause, or nonfatal acute myocardial infarction and revascularization. The mean time of follow-up was 33.25±14.95 (1∼56) months. Results: Logistic stepwise regression analysis evaluated history of smoking and drinking, hypertension, hyperlipemia and the family history of CAD as predictors. A multiple regression formula was obtained: Y=-5.593+0.958X1+0.921 X2+0.428X3, (Y=cardiac events, X1=diabetes, X2=the family history of CAD, X3=hypertension). Diabetes, the family history of CAD and hypertension were dangerous factors for cardiac events, but hyperlipemia, history of smoking and drinking were protective factors for cardiac events. Over the follow-up period, there are 42 cardiac events in diabetic group, 86 in non-diabetic group. Patients with diabetes had significantly higher rates of cardiac events (24.4% versus 9.8%; chi-square 28.5, P<0.0001), compared with rates among patients without diabetes (table 1). Kaplan-Meier survival curves analyzing the no-CE rates in the diabetic and non-diabetic groups, diabetic patients were significantly lower than non-diabetic ones (Log-rank statistic, chi-square 28.75, P <0.0001). Of 172 diabetic patients, 32.2% of the patients with abnormal MPI occurred cardiac events, but only 7.4% of the patients with normal ones did(chi-square 12.34, P <0.001) (figure 1). Abnormal SPECT MPI was associated with the higher rate

  2. A Novel Evaluation Method for Building Construction Project Based on Integrated Information Entropy with Reliability Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-ping Bai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

  3. A novel evaluation method for building construction project based on integrated information entropy with reliability theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei

    2013-01-01

    Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects.

  4. Model-based Prognostics under Limited Sensing

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is crucial to providing reliable condition-based maintenance decisions. To obtain accurate predictions of component life, a variety of sensors are often...

  5. Application of Vibration and Oil Analysis for Reliability Information on Helicopter Main Rotor Gearbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murrad, Muhamad; Leong, M. Salman

    Based on the experiences of the Malaysian Armed Forces (MAF), failure of the main rotor gearbox (MRGB) was one of the major contributing factors to helicopter breakdowns. Even though vibration and oil analysis are the effective techniques for monitoring the health of helicopter components, these two techniques were rarely combined to form an effective assessment tool in MAF. Results of the oil analysis were often used only for oil changing schedule while assessments of MRGB condition were mainly based on overall vibration readings. A study group was formed and given a mandate to improve the maintenance strategy of S61-A4 helicopter fleet in the MAF. The improvement consisted of a structured approach to the reassessment/redefinition suitable maintenance actions that should be taken for the MRGB. Basic and enhanced tools for condition monitoring (CM) are investigated to address the predominant failures of the MRGB. Quantitative accelerated life testing (QALT) was considered in this work with an intent to obtain the required reliability information in a shorter time with tests under normal stress conditions. These tests when performed correctly can provide valuable information about MRGB performance under normal operating conditions which enable maintenance personnel to make decision more quickly, accurately and economically. The time-to-failure and probability of failure information of the MRGB were generated by applying QALT analysis principles. This study is anticipated to make a dramatic change in its approach to CM, bringing significant savings and various benefits to MAF.

  6. Improving preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD) reliability by selection of sperm donor with the most informative haplotype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malcov, Mira; Gold, Veronica; Peleg, Sagit; Frumkin, Tsvia; Azem, Foad; Amit, Ami; Ben-Yosef, Dalit; Yaron, Yuval; Reches, Adi; Barda, Shimi; Kleiman, Sandra E; Yogev, Leah; Hauser, Ron

    2017-04-26

    The study is aimed to describe a novel strategy that increases the accuracy and reliability of PGD in patients using sperm donation by pre-selecting the donor whose haplotype does not overlap the carrier's one. A panel of 4-9 informative polymorphic markers, flanking the mutation in carriers of autosomal dominant/X-linked disorders, was tested in DNA of sperm donors before PGD. Whenever the lengths of donors' repeats overlapped those of the women, additional donors' DNA samples were analyzed. The donor that demonstrated the minimal overlapping with the patient was selected for IVF. In 8 out of 17 carriers the markers of the initially chosen donors overlapped the patients' alleles and 2-8 additional sperm donors for each patient were haplotyped. The selection of additional sperm donors increased the number of informative markers and reduced misdiagnosis risk from 6.00% ± 7.48 to 0.48% ±0.68. The PGD results were confirmed and no misdiagnosis was detected. Our study demonstrates that pre-selecting a sperm donor whose haplotype has minimal overlapping with the female's haplotype, is critical for reducing the misdiagnosis risk and ensuring a reliable PGD. This strategy may contribute to prevent the transmission of affected IVF-PGD embryos using a simple and economical procedure. All procedures performed in studies involving human participants were in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and/or national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments or comparable ethical standards. DNA testing of donors was approved by the institutional Helsinki committee (registration number 319-08TLV, 2008). The present study was approved by the institutional Helsinki committee (registration number 0385-13TLV, 2013).

  7. Effectiveness of different approaches to disseminating traveler information on travel time reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    The second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) Reliability program aims to improve trip time reliability by reducing the frequency and effects of events that cause travel times to fluctuate unpredictably. Congestion caused by unreliable, or n...

  8. Automated image analysis of cyclin D1 protein expression in invasive lobular breast carcinoma provides independent prognostic information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, Nicholas P; Lundgren, Katja L; Conway, Catherine; Anagnostaki, Lola; Costello, Sean; Landberg, Göran

    2012-11-01

    The emergence of automated image analysis algorithms has aided the enumeration, quantification, and immunohistochemical analyses of tumor cells in both whole section and tissue microarray samples. To date, the focus of such algorithms in the breast cancer setting has been on traditional markers in the common invasive ductal carcinoma subtype. Here, we aimed to optimize and validate an automated analysis of the cell cycle regulator cyclin D1 in a large collection of invasive lobular carcinoma and relate its expression to clinicopathologic data. The image analysis algorithm was trained to optimally match manual scoring of cyclin D1 protein expression in a subset of invasive lobular carcinoma tissue microarray cores. The algorithm was capable of distinguishing cyclin D1-positive cells and illustrated high correlation with traditional manual scoring (κ=0.63). It was then applied to our entire cohort of 483 patients, with subsequent statistical comparisons to clinical data. We found no correlation between cyclin D1 expression and tumor size, grade, and lymph node status. However, overexpression of the protein was associated with reduced recurrence-free survival (P=.029), as was positive nodal status (Pinvasive lobular carcinoma. Finally, high cyclin D1 expression was associated with increased hazard ratio in multivariate analysis (hazard ratio, 1.75; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.89). In conclusion, we describe an image analysis algorithm capable of reliably analyzing cyclin D1 staining in invasive lobular carcinoma and have linked overexpression of the protein to increased recurrence risk. Our findings support the use of cyclin D1 as a clinically informative biomarker for invasive lobular breast cancer. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Reliability and Validity of the Clinical Dementia Rating for Community-Living Elderly Subjects without an Informant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ma Shwe Zin Nyunt

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR scale is widely used to assess cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease. It requires collateral information from a reliable informant who is not available in many instances. We adapted the original CDR scale for use with elderly subjects without an informant (CDR-NI and evaluated its reliability and validity for assessing mild cognitive impairment (MCI and dementia among community-dwelling elderly subjects. Method: At two consecutive visits 1 week apart, nurses trained in CDR assessment interviewed, observed and rated cognitive and functional performance according to a protocol in 90 elderly subjects with suboptimal cognitive performance [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE Results: The CDR-NI scores (0, 0.5, 1 showed good internal consistency (Crohnbach's a 0.83-0.84, inter-rater reliability (κ 0.77-1.00 for six domains and 0.95 for global rating and test-retest reliability (κ 0.75-1.00 for six domains and 0.80 for global rating, good agreement (κ 0.79 with the clinical assessment status of MCI (n = 37 and dementia (n = 4 and significant differences in the mean scores for MMSE, MOCA and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ANOVA global p Conclusion: Owing to the protocol of the interviews, assessments and structured observations gathered during the two visits, CDR-NI provides valid and reliable assessment of MCI and dementia in community-living elderly subjects without an informant.

  10. Reliability and Validity of the Clinical Dementia Rating for Community-Living Elderly Subjects without an Informant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyunt, Ma Shwe Zin; Chong, Mei Sian; Lim, Wee Shiong; Lee, Tih Shih; Yap, Philip; Ng, Tze Pin

    2013-01-01

    The Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR) scale is widely used to assess cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease. It requires collateral information from a reliable informant who is not available in many instances. We adapted the original CDR scale for use with elderly subjects without an informant (CDR-NI) and evaluated its reliability and validity for assessing mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia among community-dwelling elderly subjects. At two consecutive visits 1 week apart, nurses trained in CDR assessment interviewed, observed and rated cognitive and functional performance according to a protocol in 90 elderly subjects with suboptimal cognitive performance [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) reliability (κ 0.77-1.00 for six domains and 0.95 for global rating) and test-retest reliability (κ 0.75-1.00 for six domains and 0.80 for global rating), good agreement (κ 0.79) with the clinical assessment status of MCI (n = 37) and dementia (n = 4) and significant differences in the mean scores for MMSE, MOCA and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ANOVA global p reliable assessment of MCI and dementia in community-living elderly subjects without an informant.

  11. The Effect of Incorrect Reliability Information on Expectations, Perceptions, and Use of Automation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barg-Walkow, Laura H; Rogers, Wendy A

    2016-03-01

    We examined how providing artificially high or low statements about automation reliability affected expectations, perceptions, and use of automation over time. One common method of introducing automation is providing explicit statements about the automation's capabilities. Research is needed to understand how expectations from such introductions affect perceptions and use of automation. Explicit-statement introductions were manipulated to set higher-than (90%), same-as (75%), or lower-than (60%) levels of expectations in a dual-task scenario with 75% reliable automation. Two experiments were conducted to assess expectations, perceptions, compliance, reliance, and task performance over (a) 2 days and (b) 4 days. The baseline assessments showed initial expectations of automation reliability matched introduced levels of expectation. For the duration of each experiment, the lower-than groups' perceptions were lower than the actual automation reliability. However, the higher-than groups' perceptions were no different from actual automation reliability after Day 1 in either study. There were few differences between groups for automation use, which generally stayed the same or increased with experience using the system. Introductory statements describing artificially low automation reliability have a long-lasting impact on perceptions about automation performance. Statements including incorrect automation reliability do not appear to affect use of automation. Introductions should be designed according to desired outcomes for expectations, perceptions, and use of the automation. Low expectations have long-lasting effects. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  12. Reliability Information Analysis Center 1st Quarter 2007, Technical Area Task (TAT) Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-02-05

    Library or [twField/Test 217Plus Ally w/ a.romtu DAAData Experience Data Need t( rdito Trqnd • s aa(Model) develol analisis Mappng & ANLED217Plu...of collected reliability data and have discovered that even with sparse data, analysis of the data shows clustering of reliability data by equipment...intended search target. Conceptually cluster discovered data to allow more detailed analysis by equipment type. For example, it may be useful to

  13. Beta-blockers influence the short-term and long-term prognostic information of natriuretic peptides and catecholamines in chronic heart failure independent from specific agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankenstein, Lutz; Nelles, Manfred; Slavutsky, Maxim; Schellberg, Dieter; Doesch, Andreas; Katus, Hugo; Remppis, Andrew; Zugck, Christian

    2007-10-01

    In chronic heart failure (CHF), the physiologic effects of natriuretic peptides and catecholamines are interdependent. Furthermore, reports state an agent-dependent effect of individual beta-blockers on biomarkers. Data on the short-term and long-term predictive power comparing these biomarkers as well as accounting for the influence of beta-blocker treatment both on the marker or the resultant prognostic information are scarce. We included 513 consecutive patients with systolic CHF, measured atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP), noradrenaline, and adrenaline, and monitored them for 90 +/- 25 months. Death or the combination of death and cardiac transplantation at 1 year, 5 years, and overall follow-up were considered end points. Compared with patients not taking beta-blockers, patients taking beta-blockers had significantly lower levels of catecholamines but not natriuretic peptides. Only for adrenaline was the amount of this effect related to the specific beta-blocker chosen. Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated superior prognostic accuracy for NTproBNP both at the 1- and 5-year follow-up compared with ANP, noradrenaline, and adrenaline. In multivariate analysis including established risk markers (New York Heart Association functional class, left ventricular ejection fraction, peak oxygen uptake, and 6-minute walk test), of all neurohumoral parameters, only NTproBNP remained an independent predictor for both end points. Long-term beta-blocker therapy is associated with decreased levels of plasma catecholamines but not natriuretic peptides. This effect is independent from the actual beta-blocker chosen for natriuretic peptides and noradrenaline. In multivariate analysis, both for short-term and long-term prediction of mortality or the combined end point of death and cardiac transplantation, only NTproBNP remained independent from established clinical risk markers.

  14. Volume-Based F-18 FDG PET/CT Imaging Markers Provide Supplemental Prognostic Information to Histologic Grading in Patients With High-Grade Bone or Soft Tissue Sarcoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kim Francis; Fuglo, Hanna Maria; Rasmussen, Sine Hvid

    2015-01-01

    analysis. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and log-rank test were used to compare the degree of equality of survival distributions. Prognostic variables with related hazard ratios (HR) were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.Forty-one of 92 patients died during follow-up (45%; 12 BS.......05, HR 3.37 [95% CI 1.02-11.11]). No significant results were demonstrated for MTV40%.Volume-based F-18 FDG PET/CT imaging markers in terms of pretreatment estimation of TLG provide supplemental prognostic information to histologic grading, with significant independent properties for prediction...

  15. Incorporation of local dependent reliability information into the Prior Image Constrained Compressed Sensing (PICCS) reconstruction algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaegler, Sven; Sauer, Otto; Stsepankou, Dzmitry; Hesser, Juergen

    2015-01-01

    The reduction of dose in cone beam computer tomography (CBCT) arises from the decrease of the tube current for each projection as well as from the reduction of the number of projections. In order to maintain good image quality, sophisticated image reconstruction techniques are required. The Prior Image Constrained Compressed Sensing (PICCS) incorporates prior images into the reconstruction algorithm and outperforms the widespread used Feldkamp-Davis-Kress-algorithm (FDK) when the number of projections is reduced. However, prior images that contain major variations are not appropriately considered so far in PICCS. We therefore propose the partial-PICCS (pPICCS) algorithm. This framework is a problem-specific extension of PICCS and enables the incorporation of the reliability of the prior images additionally. We assumed that the prior images are composed of areas with large and small deviations. Accordingly, a weighting matrix considered the assigned areas in the objective function. We applied our algorithm to the problem of image reconstruction from few views by simulations with a computer phantom as well as on clinical CBCT projections from a head-and-neck case. All prior images contained large local variations. The reconstructed images were compared to the reconstruction results by the FDK-algorithm, by Compressed Sensing (CS) and by PICCS. To show the gain of image quality we compared image details with the reference image and used quantitative metrics (root-mean-square error (RMSE), contrast-to-noise-ratio (CNR)). The pPICCS reconstruction framework yield images with substantially improved quality even when the number of projections was very small. The images contained less streaking, blurring and inaccurately reconstructed structures compared to the images reconstructed by FDK, CS and conventional PICCS. The increased image quality is also reflected in large RMSE differences. We proposed a modification of the original PICCS algorithm. The pPICCS algorithm

  16. Informed consent in contrast-enhanced CT. Understanding of risks and identification of possible prognostic factors; Patientenaufklaerung bei kontrastmittelgestuetzter CT. Risikoverstaendnis und Identifikation moeglicher Prognosefaktoren

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roehrl, S.; Dendl, L.M.; Scharf, G.; Stroszczynski, C.; Schreyer, A.G. [University Medical Center Regensburg (Germany). Dept. of Radiology; Zeman, F. [University Medical Center Regensburg (Germany). Center for Clinical Studies

    2015-11-15

    Aim of our study was to assess understanding of risks associated with intravascular application of contrast media in patients undergoing CT examination. We wanted to evaluate epidemiologic and socio-economic prognostic factors for a higher understanding of risks. Additionally, we evaluated a possible correlation between an extensive, outcome-oriented oral informed consent and better understanding of risks. 120 patients distributed in 2 study arms participated in this prospective study. In study arm I, the treating physician was not informed that his patients participated in a study whereas the physician in study arm II knew about the survey. After the informed consent we performed a standardized, semi-structured interview to enquire the 3 most frequent risks of intravascular application of contrast agents (anaphylactoid reactions, nephropathy and thyrotoxic crisis) and epidemiologic data. The understanding of the risks was evaluated using a 6 point scale. Patients scored 3.73 points in study arm I and 4.93 points in arm II on average. The statistical difference between both study arms was highly significant (p < 0.001). In a combined logistic regression analysis, only ''higher education'' (p = 0.001) and participation in study arm II (p =0.001) showed a significant connection to a better understanding of risks. Patients profit from an outcome-oriented and individualized informed consent. Due to the significant correlation between educational level and understanding of risks, informed consent should be adjusted to the educational status of the individual patient, e.g. by using didactic aids or individualized information sheets.

  17. Completeness and reliability of mortality data in Viet Nam: Implications for the national routine health management information system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Tran Thi; Phuong Hoa, Nguyen; Walker, Sue M; Hill, Peter S; Rao, Chalapati

    2018-01-01

    Mortality statistics form a crucial component of national Health Management Information Systems (HMIS). However, there are limitations in the availability and quality of mortality data at national level in Viet Nam. This study assessed the completeness of recorded deaths and the reliability of recorded causes of death (COD) in the A6 death registers in the national routine HMIS in Viet Nam. 1477 identified deaths in 2014 were reviewed in two provinces. A capture-recapture method was applied to assess the completeness of the A6 death registers. 1365 household verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were successfully conducted, and these were reviewed by physicians who assigned multiple and underlying cause of death (UCOD). These UCODs from VA were then compared with the CODs recorded in the A6 death registers, using kappa scores to assess the reliability of the A6 death register diagnoses. The overall completeness of the A6 death registers in the two provinces was 89.3% (95%CI: 87.8-90.8). No COD recorded in the A6 death registers demonstrated good reliability. There is very low reliability in recording of cardiovascular deaths (kappa for stroke = 0.47 and kappa for ischaemic heart diseases = 0.42) and diabetes (kappa = 0.33). The reporting of deaths due to road traffic accidents, HIV and some cancers are at a moderate level of reliability with kappa scores ranging between 0.57-0.69 (pViet Nam.

  18. Health Information Needs and Reliability of Sources Among Nondegree Health Sciences Students: A Prerequisite for Designing eHealth Literacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haruna, Hussein; Tshuma, Ndumiso; Hu, Xiao

    Understanding health information needs and health-seeking behavior is a prerequisite for developing an electronic health information literacy (EHIL) or eHealth literacy program for nondegree health sciences students. At present, interest in researching health information needs and reliable sources paradigms has gained momentum in many countries. However, most studies focus on health professionals and students in higher education institutions. The present study was aimed at providing new insight and filling the existing gap by examining health information needs and reliability of sources among nondegree health sciences students in Tanzania. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 15 conveniently selected health training institutions, where 403 health sciences students were participated. Thirty health sciences students were both purposely and conveniently chosen from each health-training institution. The selected students were pursuing nursing and midwifery, clinical medicine, dentistry, environmental health sciences, pharmacy, and medical laboratory sciences courses. Involved students were either in their first year, second year, or third year of study. Health sciences students' health information needs focus on their educational requirements, clinical practice, and personal information. They use print, human, and electronic health information. They lack eHealth research skills in navigating health information resources and have insufficient facilities for accessing eHealth information, a lack of specialists in health information, high costs for subscription electronic information, and unawareness of the availability of free Internet and other online health-related databases. This study found that nondegree health sciences students have limited skills in EHIL. Thus, designing and incorporating EHIL skills programs into the curriculum of nondegree health sciences students is vital. EHIL is a requirement common to all health settings, learning environments, and

  19. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2009-12-01

    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  20. Proceedings of the SRESA national conference on reliability and safety engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varde, P.V.; Vaishnavi, P.; Sujatha, S.; Valarmathi, A.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this conference was to provide a forum for technical discussions on recent developments in the area of risk based approach and Prognostic Health Management of critical systems in decision making. The reliability and safety engineering methods are concerned with the way which the product fails, and the effects of failure is to understand how a product works and assures acceptable levels of safety. The reliability engineering addresses all the anticipated and possibly unanticipated causes of failure to ensure the occurrence of failure is prevented or minimized. The topics discussed in the conference were: Reliability in Engineering Design, Safety Assessment and Management, Reliability analysis and Assessment , Stochastic Petri nets for reliability Modeling, Dynamic Reliability, Reliability Prediction, Hardware Reliability, Software Reliability in Safety Critical Issues, Probabilistic Safety Assessment, Risk Informed Approach, Dynamic Models for Reliability Analysis, Reliability based Design and Analysis, Prognostics and Health Management, Remaining Useful Life (RUL), Human Reliability Modeling, Risk Based Applications, Hazard and Operability Study (HAZOP), Reliability in Network Security and Quality Assurance and Management etc. The papers relevant to INIS are indexed separately

  1. Identification of Classified Information in Unclassified DoD Systems During the Audit of Internal Controls and Data Reliability in the Deployable Disbursing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-17

    Identification of Classified Information in Unclassified DoD Systems During the Audit of Internal Controls and Data Reliability in the Deployable...TITLE AND SUBTITLE Identification of Classified Information in Unclassified DoD Systems During the Audit of Internal Controls and Data Reliability...Systems During the Audit ofInternal Controls and Data Reliability in the Deployable Disbursing System (Report No. D-2009-054) Weare providing this

  2. Practical tool to assess reliability of web-based medicines information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lebanova, Hristina; Getov, Ilko; Grigorov, Evgeni

    2014-02-01

    Information disseminated by medicines information systems is not always easy to apply. Nowadays internet provides access to enormous volume and range of health information that was previously inaccessible both for medical specialists and consumers. The aim of this study is to assess internet as a source of drug and health related information and to create test methodology to evaluate the top 10 visited health-related web-sites in Bulgaria. Using existing scientific methodologies for evaluation of web sources, a new algorithm of three-step approach consisting of score-card validation of the drug-related information in the 10 most visited Bulgarian web-sites was created. In many cases the drug information in the internet sites contained errors and discrepancies. Some of the published materials were not validated; they were out-of-date and could cause confusion for consumers. The quality of the online health information is a cause for considerable information noise and threat to patients' safety and rational drug use. There is a need of monitoring the drugs information available online in order to prevent patient misinformation and confusion that could lead to medication errors and abuse.

  3. The reliability of manual reporting of clinical events in an anesthesia information management system (AIMS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpao, Allan F; Pruitt, Eric Y; Cook-Sather, Scott D; Gurnaney, Harshad G; Rehman, Mohamed A

    2012-12-01

    Manual incident reports significantly under-report adverse clinical events when compared with automated recordings of intraoperative data. Our goal was to determine the reliability of AIMS and CQI reports of adverse clinical events that had been witnessed and recorded by research assistants. The AIMS and CQI records of 995 patients aged 2-12 years were analyzed to determine if anesthesia providers had properly documented the emesis events that were observed and recorded by research assistants who were present in the operating room at the time of induction. Research assistants recorded eight cases of emesis during induction that were confirmed with the attending anesthesiologist at the time of induction. AIMS yielded a sensitivity of 38 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 8.5-75.5 %), while the sensitivity of CQI reporting was 13 % (95 % CI 0.3-52.7 %). The low sensitivities of the AIMS and CQI reports suggest that user-reported AIMS and CQI data do not reliably include significant clinical events.

  4. Surface Prognostic Charts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Prognostic Charts are historical surface prognostic (forecast) charts created by the United States Weather Bureau. They include fronts, isobars, cloud, and...

  5. Frontiers of reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K

    1998-01-01

    This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

  6. Trust in Testimony about Strangers: Young Children Prefer Reliable Informants Who Make Positive Attributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boseovski, Janet J.

    2012-01-01

    Young children have been described as critical consumers of information, particularly in the domain of language learning. Indeed, children are more likely to learn novel words from people with accurate histories of object labeling than with inaccurate ones. But what happens when informant testimony conflicts with a tendency to see the world in a…

  7. Formulating informative, data-based priors for failure probability estimation in reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guikema, Seth D.

    2007-01-01

    Priors play an important role in the use of Bayesian methods in risk analysis, and using all available information to formulate an informative prior can lead to more accurate posterior inferences. This paper examines the practical implications of using five different methods for formulating an informative prior for a failure probability based on past data. These methods are the method of moments, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, maximum entropy estimation, starting from a non-informative 'pre-prior', and fitting a prior based on confidence/credible interval matching. The priors resulting from the use of these different methods are compared qualitatively, and the posteriors are compared quantitatively based on a number of different scenarios of observed data used to update the priors. The results show that the amount of information assumed in the prior makes a critical difference in the accuracy of the posterior inferences. For situations in which the data used to formulate the informative prior is an accurate reflection of the data that is later observed, the ML approach yields the minimum variance posterior. However, the maximum entropy approach is more robust to differences between the data used to formulate the prior and the observed data because it maximizes the uncertainty in the prior subject to the constraints imposed by the past data

  8. Development of a Tablet-based symbol digit modalities test for reliably assessing information processing speed in patients with stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Li-Chen; Yu, Wan-Hui; Lin, Gong-Hong; Yu, Tzu-Ying; Wu, Chien-Te; Tsai, Chia-Yin; Chou, Willy; Chen, Mei-Hsiang; Hsieh, Ching-Lin

    2016-09-01

    To develop a Tablet-based Symbol Digit Modalities Test (T-SDMT) and to examine the test-retest reliability and concurrent validity of the T-SDMT in patients with stroke. The study had two phases. In the first phase, six experts, nine college students and five outpatients participated in the development and testing of the T-SDMT. In the second phase, 52 outpatients were evaluated twice (2 weeks apart) with the T-SDMT and SDMT to examine the test-retest reliability and concurrent validity of the T-SDMT. The T-SDMT was developed via expert input and college student/patient feedback. Regarding test-retest reliability, the practise effects of the T-SDMT and SDMT were both trivial (d=0.12) but significant (p≦0.015). The improvement in the T-SDMT (4.7%) was smaller than that in the SDMT (5.6%). The minimal detectable changes (MDC%) of the T-SDMT and SDMT were 6.7 (22.8%) and 10.3 (32.8%), respectively. The T-SDMT and SDMT were highly correlated with each other at the two time points (Pearson's r=0.90-0.91). The T-SDMT demonstrated good concurrent validity with the SDMT. Because the T-SDMT had a smaller practise effect and less random measurement error (superior test-retest reliability), it is recommended over the SDMT for assessing information processing speed in patients with stroke. Implications for Rehabilitation The Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT), a common measure of information processing speed, showed a substantial practise effect and considerable random measurement error in patients with stroke. The Tablet-based SDMT (T-SDMT) has been developed to reduce the practise effect and random measurement error of the SDMT in patients with stroke. The T-SDMT had smaller practise effect and random measurement error than the SDMT, which can provide more reliable assessments of information processing speed.

  9. Validity and reliability testing of two instruments to measure breast cancer patients' concerns and information needs relating to radiation therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristjanson Linda J

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is difficult to determine the most effective approach to patient education or tailor education interventions for patients in radiotherapy without tools that assess patients' specific radiation therapy information needs and concerns. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop psychometrically sound tools to adequately determine the concerns and information needs of cancer patients during radiation therapy. Patients and Methods Two tools were developed to (1 determine patients concerns about radiation therapy (RT Concerns Scale and (2 ascertain patient's information needs at different time point during their radiation therapy (RT Information Needs Scale. Tools were based on previous research by the authors, published literature on breast cancer and radiation therapy and information behaviour research. Thirty-one breast cancer patients completed the questionnaire on one occasion and thirty participants completed the questionnaire on a second occasion to facilitate test-retest reliability. One participant's responses were removed from the analysis. Results were analysed for content validity, internal consistency and stability over time. Results Both tools demonstrated high internal consistency and adequate stability over time. The nine items in the RT Concerns Scale were retained because they met all pre-set psychometric criteria. Two items were deleted from the RT Information Needs Scale because they did not meet content validity criteria and did not achieve pre-specified criteria for internal consistency. This tool now contains 22 items. Conclusion This paper provides preliminary data suggesting that the two tools presented are reliable and valid and would be suitable for use in trials or in the clinical setting.

  10. Minimal information: an urgent need to assess the functional reliability of recombinant proteins used in biological experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Marco Ario

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Structural characterization of proteins used in biological experiments is largely neglected. In most publications, the information available is totally insufficient to judge the functionality of the proteins used and, therefore, the significance of identified protein-protein interactions (was the interaction specific or due to unspecific binding of misfolded protein regions? or reliability of kinetic and thermodynamic data (how much protein was in its native form?. As a consequence, the results of single experiments might not only become questionable, but the whole reliability of systems biology, built on these fundaments, would be weakened. The introduction of Minimal Information concerning purified proteins to add as metadata to the main body of a manuscript would render straightforward the assessment of their functional and structural qualities and, consequently, of results obtained using these proteins. Furthermore, accepted standards for protein annotation would simplify data comparison and exchange. This article has been envisaged as a proposal for aggregating scientists who share the opinion that the scientific community needs a platform for Minimum Information for Protein Functionality Evaluation (MIPFE.

  11. Impact of Transport Layer Protocols on Reliable Information Access in Smart Grids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahid, Kamal; Saeed, Aamir; Kristensen, Thomas le Fevre

    2017-01-01

    Time is critical for certain types of dynamic information (e.g. frequency control) in a smart grid scenario. The usefulness of such information depends upon the arrival within a specific frame of time, which in other case may not serve the purpose and effect controller’s performance....... The question is addressed by analyzing the performance of UDP and TCP over imperfect network conditions to show how the selection of transport layer protocol can dramatically affect controller’s performance. This analysis is based on a quality metric called mismatch probability that considers occurrence...

  12. Treatment of Passive Component Reliability in Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization FY 2010 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert W Youngblood

    2010-09-01

    The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway is a set of activities defined under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The overarching objective of RISMC is to support plant life-extension decision-making by providing a state-of-knowledge characterization of safety margins in key systems, structures, and components (SSCs). A technical challenge at the core of this effort is to establish the conceptual and technical feasibility of analyzing safety margin in a risk-informed way, which, unlike conventionally defined deterministic margin analysis, is founded on probabilistic characterizations of SSC performance.

  13. Process-aware information system development for the healthcare domain : consistency, reliability and effectiveness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mans, R.S.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Russell, N.C.; Bakker, P.J.M.; Moleman, A.J.; Rinderle-Ma, S.; Sadiq, S.; Leymann, F.

    2010-01-01

    Optimal support for complex healthcare processes cannot be provided by a single out-of-the-box Process-Aware Information System and necessitates the construction of customized applications based on these systems. In order to allow for the seamless integration of the new technology into the existing

  14. Is anterior N2 enhancement a reliable electrophysiological index of concealed information?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganis, Giorgio; Bridges, David; Hsu, Chun-Wei; Schendan, Haline E

    2016-12-01

    Concealed information tests (CITs) are used to determine whether an individual possesses information about an item of interest. Event-related potential (ERP) measures in CITs have focused almost exclusively on the P3b component, showing that this component is larger when lying about the item of interest (probe) than telling the truth about control items (irrelevants). Recent studies have begun to examine other ERP components, such as the anterior N2, with mixed results. A seminal CIT study found that visual probes elicit a larger anterior N2 than irrelevants (Gamer and Berti, 2010) and suggested that this component indexes cognitive control processes engaged when lying about probes. However, this study did not control for potential intrinsic differences among the stimuli: the same probe and irrelevants were used for all participants, and there was no control condition composed of uninformed participants. Here, first we show that the N2 effect found in the study by Gamer and Berti (2010) was in large part due to stimulus differences, as the effect observed in a concealed information condition was comparable to that found in two matched control conditions without any concealed information (Experiments 1 and 2). Next, we addressed the issue of the generality of the N2 findings by counterbalancing a new set of stimuli across participants and by using a control condition with uninformed participants (Experiment 3). Results show that the probe did not elicit a larger anterior N2 than the irrelevants under these controlled conditions. These findings suggest that caution should be taken in using the N2 as an index of concealed information in CITs. Furthermore, they are a reminder that results of CIT studies (not only with ERPs) performed without stimulus counterbalancing and suitable control conditions may be confounded by differential intrinsic properties of the stimuli employed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Improvement of Steam Turbine Operational Performance and Reliability with using Modern Information Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brezgin, V. I.; Brodov, Yu M.; Kultishev, A. Yu

    2017-11-01

    The report presents improvement methods review in the fields of the steam turbine units design and operation based on modern information technologies application. In accordance with the life cycle methodology support, a conceptual model of the information support system during life cycle main stages (LC) of steam turbine unit is suggested. A classifying system, which ensures the creation of sustainable information links between the engineer team (manufacture’s plant) and customer organizations (power plants), is proposed. Within report, the principle of parameterization expansion beyond the geometric constructions at the design and improvement process of steam turbine unit equipment is proposed, studied and justified. The report presents the steam turbine unit equipment design methodology based on the brand new oil-cooler design system that have been developed and implemented by authors. This design system combines the construction subsystem, which is characterized by extensive usage of family tables and templates, and computation subsystem, which includes a methodology for the thermal-hydraulic zone-by-zone oil coolers design calculations. The report presents data about the developed software for operational monitoring, assessment of equipment parameters features as well as its implementation on five power plants.

  16. Reliability Engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Lazzaroni, Massimo

    2012-01-01

    This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

  17. Reliability training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Dillard, Richard B.; Wong, Kam L.; Barber, Frank J.; Barina, Frank J.

    1992-01-01

    Discussed here is failure physics, the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low cost reliable products. A review of reliability for the years 1940 to 2000 is given. Next, a review of mathematics is given as well as a description of what elements contribute to product failures. Basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures are elucidated.

  18. Modeling for Battery Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Goebel, Kai; Khasin, Michael; Hogge, Edward; Quach, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    For any battery-powered vehicles (be it unmanned aerial vehicles, small passenger aircraft, or assets in exoplanetary operations) to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it is critical to monitor battery health as well performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL). To fulfil these needs, it is important to capture the battery's inherent characteristics as well as operational knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic algorithms. Several battery modeling methodologies have been developed in last few years as the understanding of underlying electrochemical mechanics has been advancing. The models can generally be classified as empirical models, electrochemical engineering models, multi-physics models, and molecular/atomist. Empirical models are based on fitting certain functions to past experimental data, without making use of any physicochemical principles. Electrical circuit equivalent models are an example of such empirical models. Electrochemical engineering models are typically continuum models that include electrochemical kinetics and transport phenomena. Each model has its advantages and disadvantages. The former type of model has the advantage of being computationally efficient, but has limited accuracy and robustness, due to the approximations used in developed model, and as a result of such approximations, cannot represent aging well. The latter type of model has the advantage of being very accurate, but is often computationally inefficient, having to solve complex sets of partial differential equations, and thus not suited well for online prognostic applications. In addition both multi-physics and atomist models are computationally expensive hence are even less suited to online application An electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries has been developed, that captures crucial electrochemical processes, captures effects of aging, is computationally efficient

  19. Diverse Data Sets Can Yield Reliable Information through Mechanistic Modeling: Salicylic Acid Clearance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond, G M; Bassingthwaighte, J B

    This is a practical example of a powerful research strategy: putting together data from studies covering a diversity of conditions can yield a scientifically sound grasp of the phenomenon when the individual observations failed to provide definitive understanding. The rationale is that defining a realistic, quantitative, explanatory hypothesis for the whole set of studies, brings about a "consilience" of the often competing hypotheses considered for individual data sets. An internally consistent conjecture linking multiple data sets simultaneously provides stronger evidence on the characteristics of a system than does analysis of individual data sets limited to narrow ranges of conditions. Our example examines three very different data sets on the clearance of salicylic acid from humans: a high concentration set from aspirin overdoses; a set with medium concentrations from a research study on the influences of the route of administration and of sex on the clearance kinetics, and a set on low dose aspirin for cardiovascular health. Three models were tested: (1) a first order reaction, (2) a Michaelis-Menten (M-M) approach, and (3) an enzyme kinetic model with forward and backward reactions. The reaction rates found from model 1 were distinctly different for the three data sets, having no commonality. The M-M model 2 fitted each of the three data sets but gave a reliable estimates of the Michaelis constant only for the medium level data (K m = 24±5.4 mg/L); analyzing the three data sets together with model 2 gave K m = 18±2.6 mg/L. (Estimating parameters using larger numbers of data points in an optimization increases the degrees of freedom, constraining the range of the estimates). Using the enzyme kinetic model (3) increased the number of free parameters but nevertheless improved the goodness of fit to the combined data sets, giving tighter constraints, and a lower estimated K m = 14.6±2.9 mg/L, demonstrating that fitting diverse data sets with a single model

  20. A Framework for Reliable Reception of Wireless Metering Data using Protocol Side Information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Melchior Jacobsen, Rasmus; Popovski, Petar

    2013-01-01

    the deterministic protocol structure to obtain side information and group the packets from the same meter. We derive the probability of falsely pairing packets from different senders in the simple case of no channel errors, and show through simulation and data from an experimental deployment the probability...... of false pairing with channel errors. The pairing is an essential step towards recovery of metering data from as many as possible meters under harsh channel conditions. From the experiment we find that more than 15% of all conducted pairings are between two erroneous packets, which sets an upper bound...

  1. [Are newspapers a reliable source of information about doping in sports?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durrieu, Geneviève; Gorsse, Elisabeth; Montastruc, Jean-Louis

    2004-01-01

    To study the coverage by French newspapers of doping in sports, we performed a systematic review of articles appearing between January and March 2003 on the following French websites: L'Equipe, Le Monde, Le Figaro, Libération, La Dépêche du Midi and Agence France-Presse (AFP). We recorded a total of 58 articles about doping. Among them, 48 (83%) were collected from the AFP news. L'Equipe, a French sports newspaper, published seven articles (12%). Most of the recorded data reported results of worldwide antidoping control (71%). No information about new drugs was found. The analysis of the selected articles pointed out the following: (i) the seriousness of observations related to doping since, during this 3-month period, we noted two deaths of athletes; (ii) the risks associated with the use of dietary supplements, particularly products including amphetamine derivatives; (iii) the interest in judicial investigation as an information source about doping in sports (investigation of suspicious deaths of Italian football players); and (iv) identification of the sports involved in doping (cycling, but also athletics, football, rugby). Systematic analysis of newspaper reports can be considered as a relevant method for monitoring the pharmacovigilance and pharmacoepidemiology of doping in sports.

  2. Reliable structural information from multiscale decomposition with the Mellor-Brady filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szilágyi, Tünde; Brady, Michael

    2009-08-01

    Image-based medical diagnosis typically relies on the (poorly reproducible) subjective classification of textures in order to differentiate between diseased and healthy pathology. Clinicians claim that significant benefits would arise from quantitative measures to inform clinical decision making. The first step in generating such measures is to extract local image descriptors - from noise corrupted and often spatially and temporally coarse resolution medical signals - that are invariant to illumination, translation, scale and rotation of the features. The Dual-Tree Complex Wavelet Transform (DT-CWT) provides a wavelet multiresolution analysis (WMRA) tool e.g. in 2D with good properties, but has limited rotational selectivity. Also, it requires computationally-intensive steering due to the inherently 1D operations performed. The monogenic signal, which is defined in n >= 2D with the Riesz transform gives excellent orientation information without the need for steering. Recent work has suggested the Monogenic Riesz-Laplace wavelet transform as a possible tool for integrating these two concepts into a coherent mathematical framework. We have found that the proposed construction suffers from a lack of rotational invariance and is not optimal for retrieving local image descriptors. In this paper we show: 1. Local frequency and local phase from the monogenic signal are not equivalent, especially in the phase congruency model of a "feature", and so they are not interchangeable for medical image applications. 2. The accuracy of local phase computation may be improved by estimating the denoising parameters while maximizing a new measure of "featureness".

  3. Challenges and opportunities for informational societies from the present to become reliable learning and knowledge societies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo ROMERO SÁNCHEZ

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This article pretend to describe the principal social trends and cultural features that prevail today, too look the philosophical foundation of thinking, feel , living and to give an educative  response and accepted to the axiological reality  and cultural present. In modern western societies great paradoxes and contradictions coexist: economical growth, technological development and greater dimensions of freedom, but also great consumption, cultural deterioration, technological dependence and unique thought. Given this we talk about the great possibilities and at the same time of the terrible threats that exist in that modern information societies. In order to become acquainted with this reality, we have focused the analysis in 3 key aspects: the impact of digital devolution, the condition of culture in contemporary society, and the need of a “new education”.

  4. Data integration and knowledge discovery in biomedical databases. Reliable information from unreliable sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Mitnitski

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available To better understand information about human health from databases we analyzed three datasets collected for different purposes in Canada: a biomedical database of older adults, a large population survey across all adult ages, and vital statistics. Redundancy in the variables was established, and this led us to derive a generalized (macroscopic state variable, being a fitness/frailty index that reflects both individual and group health status. Evaluation of the relationship between fitness/frailty and the mortality rate revealed that the latter could be expressed in terms of variables generally available from any cross-sectional database. In practical terms, this means that the risk of mortality might readily be assessed from standard biomedical appraisals collected for other purposes.

  5. CT-based texture analysis potentially provides prognostic information complementary to interim fdg-pet for patients with hodgkin's and aggressive non-hodgkin's lymphomas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ganeshan, B.; Miles, K.A.; Shortman, R.; Afaq, A.; Ardeshna, K.M.; Groves, A.M.; Kayani, I. [University College London, Institute of Nuclear Medicine, London (United Kingdom); Babikir, S. [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Human Health Division, Nuclear Medicine and Diagnostic Imaging Section, Vienna (Austria)

    2017-03-15

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of computed tomography texture analysis (CTTA) to provide additional prognostic information in patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) and high-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). This retrospective, pilot-study approved by the IRB comprised 45 lymphoma patients undergoing routine 18F-FDG-PET-CT. Progression-free survival (PFS) was determined from clinical follow-up (mean-duration: 40 months; range: 10-62 months). Non-contrast-enhanced low-dose CT images were submitted to CTTA comprising image filtration to highlight features of different sizes followed by histogram-analysis using kurtosis. Prognostic value of CTTA was compared to PET FDG-uptake value, tumour-stage, tumour-bulk, lymphoma-type, treatment-regime, and interim FDG-PET (iPET) status using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox regression analysis determined the independence of significantly prognostic imaging and clinical features. A total of 27 patients had aggressive NHL and 18 had HL. Mean PFS was 48.5 months. There was no significant difference in pre-treatment CTTA between the lymphoma sub-types. Kaplan-Meier analysis found pre-treatment CTTA (medium feature scale, p=0.010) and iPET status (p<0.001) to be significant predictors of PFS. Cox analysis revealed that an interaction between pre-treatment CTTA and iPET status was the only independent predictor of PFS (HR: 25.5, 95% CI: 5.4-120, p<0.001). Specifically, pre-treatment CTTA risk stratified patients with negative iPET. CTTA can potentially provide prognostic information complementary to iPET for patients with HL and aggressive NHL. (orig.)

  6. Reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Chi Woo; Kim, Sun Jin; Lee, Seung Woo; Jeong, Sang Yeong

    1993-08-01

    This book start what is reliability? such as origin of reliability problems, definition of reliability and reliability and use of reliability. It also deals with probability and calculation of reliability, reliability function and failure rate, probability distribution of reliability, assumption of MTBF, process of probability distribution, down time, maintainability and availability, break down maintenance and preventive maintenance design of reliability, design of reliability for prediction and statistics, reliability test, reliability data and design and management of reliability.

  7. How do nurses and teachers perform breast self-examination: are they reliable sources of information?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozvurmaz Safiye

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is the most common cause of cancer-related deaths among women worldwide. The aim of the present study was to determine and compare knowledge, behavior and attitudes among female nurses and teachers concerning breast self-examination (BSE. Methods Two-hundred and eighty nine women working in Aydin, Turkey (125 nurses and 164 teachers were included in the study. The data were collected using a questionnaire designed to measure the knowledge, attitudes and behavior of the groups. Analysis involved percentiles, χ2 tests, t tests and factor analysis. Results The knowledge of nurses about BSE was higher than that of teachers (81.5% versus 45.1%; p 0.05, whereas skills in performing self-examination were higher in nurses (p Conclusion We conclude that nurses and teachers should be supported with information enabling them to accomplish their roles in the community. To improve BSE practice, it is crucial to coordinate continuous and planned education.

  8. A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

  9. Prognostics-based qualification of high-power white LEDs using Lévy process approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yung, Kam-Chuen; Sun, Bo; Jiang, Xiaopeng

    2017-01-01

    Due to their versatility in a variety of applications and the growing market demand, high-power white light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have attracted considerable attention. Reliability qualification testing is an essential part of the product development process to ensure the reliability of a new LED product before its release. However, the widely used IES-TM-21 method does not provide comprehensive reliability information. For more accurate and effective qualification, this paper presents a novel method based on prognostics techniques. Prognostics is an engineering technology predicting the future reliability or determining the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of a product by assessing the extent of deviation or degradation from its expected normal operating conditions. A Lévy subordinator of a mixed Gamma and compound Poisson process is used to describe the actual degradation process of LEDs characterized by random sporadic small jumps of degradation degree, and the reliability function is derived for qualification with different distribution forms of jump sizes. The IES LM-80 test results reported by different LED vendors are used to develop and validate the qualification methodology. This study will be helpful for LED manufacturers to reduce the total test time and cost required to qualify the reliability of an LED product.

  10. Prognostic Performance Metrics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This chapter presents several performance metrics for offline evaluation of prognostics algorithms. A brief overview of different methods employed for performance...

  11. The reliability of financial information of charitable organizations: an exploratory study based on the Benford’s Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Antonio Figueiredo Milani Filho

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Benford's Law (BL is a logarithmic distribution which is useful to detect abnormal patterns of digits in number sets. It is often used as a primary data auditing method for detecting traces of errors, illegal practices or undesired occurrences, such as fraud and earning management. In this descriptive study, I analyzed the financial information (revenue and expenditure of the registered charitable hospitals located in Ontario and Quebec, which have the majority (71.4% of these organizations within Canada. The aim of this study was to verify the reliability of the financial data of the respective hospitals, using the probability distribution predicted by Benford’s Law as a proxy of reliability. The sample was composed by 1,334 observations related to 339 entities operating in the tax year 2009 and 328 entities in 2010, gathered from the Canada Revenue Agency’s database. To analyze the discrepancies between the actual and expected frequencies of the significant-digit, two statistics were calculated: Z-test and Pearson’s chi-square test. The results show that, with a confidence level of 95%, the data set of the organizations located in Ontario and Quebec have similar distribution to the BL, suggesting that, in a preliminary analysis, their financial data are free from bias.

  12. Impact of Advanced Alarm Systems and Information Displays on Human Reliability in the Digital Control Room of Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong Hyun; Dang, Vinh N

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses the potential impacts of two advanced features of digital control rooms, alarm systems and information display systems, on the Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) in nuclear power plants. Although the features of digital control rooms have already been implemented in new or upgraded nuclear power plants, HRAs have so far not taken much credit for these features. In this circumstance, this paper aims at examining the potential effects of these features on human performance and discussing how these effects can be addressed with existing HRA methods. A conclusion derivable from past experimental studies is that those features are supportive in the severe conditions such as complex scenarios and knowledge-based works. However, in the less complex scenarios and rule-based work, they may have no difference with or sometimes negative impacts on operator performance. The discussion about the impact on the HRA is provided on the basis on the THERP method

  13. The Healthcare Improvement Scotland evidence note rapid review process: providing timely, reliable evidence to inform imperative decisions on healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntosh, Heather M; Calvert, Julie; Macpherson, Karen J; Thompson, Lorna

    2016-06-01

    Rapid review has become widely adopted by health technology assessment agencies in response to demand for evidence-based information to support imperative decisions. Concern about the credibility of rapid reviews and the reliability of their findings has prompted a call for wider publication of their methods. In publishing this overview of the accredited rapid review process developed by Healthcare Improvement Scotland, we aim to raise awareness of our methods and advance the discourse on best practice. Healthcare Improvement Scotland produces rapid reviews called evidence notes using a process that has achieved external accreditation through the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Key components include a structured approach to topic selection, initial scoping, considered stakeholder involvement, streamlined systematic review, internal quality assurance, external peer review and updating. The process was introduced in 2010 and continues to be refined over time in response to user feedback and operational experience. Decision-makers value the responsiveness of the process and perceive it as being a credible source of unbiased evidence-based information supporting advice for NHSScotland. Many agencies undertaking rapid reviews are striving to balance efficiency with methodological rigour. We agree that there is a need for methodological guidance and that it should be informed by better understanding of current approaches and the consequences of different approaches to streamlining systematic review methods. Greater transparency in the reporting of rapid review methods is essential to enable that to happen.

  14. Colorectal Cancer: Prognostic Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana Manxhuka-Kerliu

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available After lung cancer colorectal cancer (Cc is ranked the second, as a cause of cancer-related death. The purpose of this study was to analyze the Cc cases in our material with respect to all prognostic values including histological type and grade, vascular invasion, perineural invasion, and tumor border features. There were investigated 149 cases of resection specimen with colorectal cancer, which were fixed in buffered neutral formalin and embedded in paraffin. Tissue sections (4(µm thick were cut and stained with H&E. Adenocarcinoma was the most frequent histological type found in 85,90% of cases, in 60,94% of males and 39,06% of females; squamous cell carcinoma in 7,38%, in 63,63% of males and 36,36% of females; mucinous carcinoma in 4,68%, in 57,15% of males and 42,85% of females; while adenosquamous carcinoma, undifferentiated carcinoma and carcinoma in situ in 0,71% of cases each. Dukes' classification was used in order to define the depth of invasion. Dukes B was found in 68,45% of cases, whereas in 31,54% of cases Dukes C was found. As far as histological grading is concerned, Cc was mostly with moderate differentiation (75,16% with neither vascular nor perineural invasion. Resection margins were in all cases free of tumor. Our data indicate that the pathologic features of the resection specimen constitute the most powerful predictors of postoperative outcome in Cc. Dukes' stage and degree of differentiation provide independent prognostic information in Cc. However, differentiation should be assessed by the worst pattern.

  15. The prognostic value of quantified MRI at an early stage of Bell's palsy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kress, B.P.J.; Efinger, K.; Gottschalk, A.; Nissen, S.; Solbach, T.; Baehren, W.; Griesbeck, F.; Goriup, A.; Kornhuber, A.W.

    2002-01-01

    Objective: The aim of the study was to assess whether MRI has a prognostic value at an early stage of Bell's palsy. Material and Methods: Prospective, blinded study on 30 patients suffering from Bell's palsy, who came to hospital until the sixth day of illness, to receive high dosis steroid therapy. MRI was done on the first day of inpatient treatment as a gradient-echo-sequence with a slice thickness of 0.7 mm before and after i.v. administration of 0.1 mmol GdDTPA/kg weight. The signal intensity increase was evaluated quantitatively by region on interest (ROI). The results were compared to the clinical outcome and the results of electrophysiology. Results: The examinations of all patients could be evaluated. The 3 patients who developed a chronic facial paralysis were detected by MRI on the first day of inpatient treatment. The patients, who showed MR signs for an unfavorable course, had a highly significant pathologic compound muscle action potential (CMAP) as a result of the electrophysiologic measurement. Rather than using complex measurement procedures it is possible to obtain reliable prognostic information from just one measurement within the Internal auditory canal before and after i.v. administration of contrast. Conclusion: MRI has a prognostic value at an early stage of the illness. In the clinical setting this measurement is easy to perform, so that it is possible to obtain prognostic information at a stage when causal treatment is still possible. (orig.) [de

  16. Prognostic methods in medicine

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, P. J.; Abu-Hanna, A.

    1999-01-01

    Prognosis--the prediction of the course and outcome of disease processes--plays an important role in patient management tasks like diagnosis and treatment planning. As a result, prognostic models form an integral part of a number of systems supporting these tasks. Furthermore, prognostic models

  17. Aircraft Anomaly Prognostics, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop Group will leverage its proven Electromechanical Actuator (EMA) prognostics methodology to develop an advanced model-based actuator prognostic reasoner...

  18. An audit of the reliability of influenza vaccination and medical information extracted from eHealth records in general practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, Annette K; Gibbs, Robyn A; Effler, Paul V

    2018-05-31

    To evaluate the reliability of information in general practice (GP) electronic health records (EHRs), 2100 adult patients were randomly selected for interview regarding the presence of specific medical conditions and recent influenza vaccination. Agreement between self-report and data extracted from EHRs was compared using Cohen's kappa coefficient (k) and interpreted in accordance with Altman's Kappa Benchmarking criteria; 377 (18%) patients declined participation, and 608 (29%) could not be contacted. Of 1115 (53%) remaining, 856 (77%) were active patients (≥3 visits to the GP practice in the last two years) who provided complete information for analysis. Although a higher proportion of patients self-reported being vaccinated or having a medical condition compared to the EHR (50.7% vs 36.9%, and 39.4% vs 30.3%, respectively), there was "good" agreement between self-report and EHR for both vaccination status (κ = 0.67) and medical conditions (κ = 0.66). These findings suggest EHR may be useful for public health surveillance. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Bhaskar; Celaya, Jose R.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

    2013-01-01

    Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research field as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management information. This paper focuses on a prognostics application for electronics components within avionics systems, and in particular its application to an Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). This application utilizes the remaining useful life prediction, accomplished by employing the particle filter framework, leveraging data from accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. These tests induced thermal-electrical overstresses by applying thermal cycling to the IGBT devices. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  20. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bubb, H.

    1992-01-01

    This book resulted from the activity of Task Force 4.2 - 'Human Reliability'. This group was established on February 27th, 1986, at the plenary meeting of the Technical Reliability Committee of VDI, within the framework of the joint committee of VDI on industrial systems technology - GIS. It is composed of representatives of industry, representatives of research institutes, of technical control boards and universities, whose job it is to study how man fits into the technical side of the world of work and to optimize this interaction. In a total of 17 sessions, information from the part of ergonomy dealing with human reliability in using technical systems at work was exchanged, and different methods for its evaluation were examined and analyzed. The outcome of this work was systematized and compiled in this book. (orig.) [de

  1. Methods of Estimation the Reliability and Increasing the Informativeness of the Laboratory Results (Analysis of the Laboratory Case of Measurement the Indicators of Thyroid Function)

    OpenAIRE

    N A Kovyazina; N A Alhutova; N N Zybina; N M Kalinina

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the study was to demonstrate the multilevel laboratory quality management system and point at the methods of estimating the reliability and increasing the amount of information content of the laboratory results (on the example of the laboratory case). Results. The article examines the stages of laboratory quality management which has helped to estimate the reliability of the results of determining Free T3, Free T4 and TSH. The measurement results are presented by the expanded unce...

  2. The reliability and validity of the informant AD8 by comparison with a series of cognitive assessment tools in primary healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaik, Muhammad Amin; Xu, Xin; Chan, Qun Lin; Hui, Richard Jor Yeong; Chong, Steven Shih Tsze; Chen, Christopher Li-Hsian; Dong, YanHong

    2016-03-01

    The validity and reliability of the informant AD8 in primary healthcare has not been established. Therefore, the present study examined the validity and reliability of the informant AD8 in government subsidized primary healthcare centers in Singapore. Eligible patients (≥60 years old) were recruited from primary healthcare centers and their informants received the AD8. Patient-informant dyads who agreed for further cognitive assessments received the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR), and a locally validated formal neuropsychological battery at a research center in a tertiary hospital. 1,082 informants completed AD8 assessment at two primary healthcare centers. Of these, 309 patients-informant dyads were further assessed, of whom 243 (78.6%) were CDR = 0; 22 (7.1%) were CDR = 0.5; and 44 (14.2%) were CDR≥1. The mean administration time of the informant AD8 was 2.3 ± 1.0 minutes. The informant AD8 demonstrated good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.85); inter-rater reliability (Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) = 0.85); and test-retest reliability (weighted κ = 0.80). Concurrent validity, as measured by the correlation between total AD8 scores and CDR global (R = 0.65, p validity, as measured by convergent validity (R ≥ 0.4) between individual items of AD8 with CDR and neuropsychological domains was acceptable. The informant AD8 demonstrated good concurrent and construct validity and is a reliable measure to detect cognitive dysfunction in primary healthcare.

  3. PREP KITT, System Reliability by Fault Tree Analysis. PREP, Min Path Set and Min Cut Set for Fault Tree Analysis, Monte-Carlo Method. KITT, Component and System Reliability Information from Kinetic Fault Tree Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vesely, W.E.; Narum, R.E.

    1997-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: The PREP/KITT computer program package obtains system reliability information from a system fault tree. The PREP program finds the minimal cut sets and/or the minimal path sets of the system fault tree. (A minimal cut set is a smallest set of components such that if all the components are simultaneously failed the system is failed. A minimal path set is a smallest set of components such that if all of the components are simultaneously functioning the system is functioning.) The KITT programs determine reliability information for the components of each minimal cut or path set, for each minimal cut or path set, and for the system. Exact, time-dependent reliability information is determined for each component and for each minimal cut set or path set. For the system, reliability results are obtained by upper bound approximations or by a bracketing procedure in which various upper and lower bounds may be obtained as close to one another as desired. The KITT programs can handle independent components which are non-repairable or which have a constant repair time. Any assortment of non-repairable components and components having constant repair times can be considered. Any inhibit conditions having constant probabilities of occurrence can be handled. The failure intensity of each component is assumed to be constant with respect to time. The KITT2 program can also handle components which during different time intervals, called phases, may have different reliability properties. 2 - Method of solution: The PREP program obtains minimal cut sets by either direct deterministic testing or by an efficient Monte Carlo algorithm. The minimal path sets are obtained using the Monte Carlo algorithm. The reliability information is obtained by the KITT programs from numerical solution of the simple integral balance equations of kinetic tree theory. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: The PREP program will obtain the minimal cut and

  4. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and...

  5. Machinery prognostics and prognosis oriented maintenance management

    CERN Document Server

    Yan, Jihong

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a complete presentatin of the basic essentials of machinery prognostics and prognosis oriented maintenance management, and takes a look at the cutting-edge discipline of intelligent failure prognosis technologies for condition-based maintenance.  Latest research results and application methods are introduced for signal processing, reliability moelling, deterioration evaluation, residual life prediction and maintenance-optimization as well as applications of these methods.

  6. 78 FR 41339 - Electric Reliability Organization Proposal To Retire Requirements in Reliability Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-10

    ...] Electric Reliability Organization Proposal To Retire Requirements in Reliability Standards AGENCY: Federal... Reliability Standards identified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the Commission-certified Electric Reliability Organization. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Kevin Ryan (Legal Information...

  7. The Accelerator Reliability Forum

    CERN Document Server

    Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R

    2014-01-01

    A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.

  8. A Mobile Robot Testbed for Prognostics-Enabled Autonomous Decision Making

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ability to utilize prognostic system health information in operational decision making, especially when fused with information about future operational,...

  9. Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Yong

    1992-07-01

    This book is about reliability engineering, which describes definition and importance of reliability, development of reliability engineering, failure rate and failure probability density function about types of it, CFR and index distribution, IFR and normal distribution and Weibull distribution, maintainability and movability, reliability test and reliability assumption in index distribution type, normal distribution type and Weibull distribution type, reliability sampling test, reliability of system, design of reliability and functionality failure analysis by FTA.

  10. Data Fusion for Enhanced Aircraft Engine Prognostics and Health Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volponi, Al

    2005-01-01

    Aircraft gas-turbine engine data is available from a variety of sources, including on-board sensor measurements, maintenance histories, and component models. An ultimate goal of Propulsion Health Management (PHM) is to maximize the amount of meaningful information that can be extracted from disparate data sources to obtain comprehensive diagnostic and prognostic knowledge regarding the health of the engine. Data fusion is the integration of data or information from multiple sources for the achievement of improved accuracy and more specific inferences than can be obtained from the use of a single sensor alone. The basic tenet underlying the data/ information fusion concept is to leverage all available information to enhance diagnostic visibility, increase diagnostic reliability and reduce the number of diagnostic false alarms. This report describes a basic PHM data fusion architecture being developed in alignment with the NASA C-17 PHM Flight Test program. The challenge of how to maximize the meaningful information extracted from disparate data sources to obtain enhanced diagnostic and prognostic information regarding the health and condition of the engine is the primary goal of this endeavor. To address this challenge, NASA Glenn Research Center, NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, and Pratt & Whitney have formed a team with several small innovative technology companies to plan and conduct a research project in the area of data fusion, as it applies to PHM. Methodologies being developed and evaluated have been drawn from a wide range of areas including artificial intelligence, pattern recognition, statistical estimation, and fuzzy logic. This report will provide a chronology and summary of the work accomplished under this research contract.

  11. Prognostic Disclosure and its Influence on Cancer Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Hsiu Chen

    2014-09-01

    Conclusions: In order to close the gap between patients’ preferences for prognostic disclosure and actual receipt of prognostic information, healthcare professionals should develop interventions to overcome the physicians’ difficulty in revealing prognosis, thus facilitating cancer patients’ awareness of prognosis and providing high quality end-of-life care.

  12. Methods of Estimation the Reliability and Increasing the Informativeness of the Laboratory Results (Analysis of the Laboratory Case of Measurement the Indicators of Thyroid Function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N A Kovyazina

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the study was to demonstrate the multilevel laboratory quality management system and point at the methods of estimating the reliability and increasing the amount of information content of the laboratory results (on the example of the laboratory case. Results. The article examines the stages of laboratory quality management which has helped to estimate the reliability of the results of determining Free T3, Free T4 and TSH. The measurement results are presented by the expanded uncertainty and the evaluation of the dynamics. Conclusion. Compliance with mandatory measures for laboratory quality management system enables laboratories to obtain reliable results and calculate the parameters that are able to increase the amount of information content of laboratory tests in clinical decision making.

  13. Redefining reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paulson, S.L.

    1995-01-01

    Want to buy some reliability? The question would have been unthinkable in some markets served by the natural gas business even a few years ago, but in the new gas marketplace, industrial, commercial and even some residential customers have the opportunity to choose from among an array of options about the kind of natural gas service they need--and are willing to pay for. The complexities of this brave new world of restructuring and competition have sent the industry scrambling to find ways to educate and inform its customers about the increased responsibility they will have in determining the level of gas reliability they choose. This article discusses the new options and the new responsibilities of customers, the needed for continuous education, and MidAmerican Energy Company's experiment in direct marketing of natural gas

  14. Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goebel, Kai; Saxena, Abhinav; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita

    2012-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

  15. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2011-01-01

    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  16. Pharmacokinetic Tumor Heterogeneity as a Prognostic Biomarker for Classifying Breast Cancer Recurrence Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahrooghy, Majid; Ashraf, Ahmed B; Daye, Dania; McDonald, Elizabeth S; Rosen, Mark; Mies, Carolyn; Feldman, Michael; Kontos, Despina

    2015-06-01

    Heterogeneity in cancer can affect response to therapy and patient prognosis. Histologic measures have classically been used to measure heterogeneity, although a reliable noninvasive measurement is needed both to establish baseline risk of recurrence and monitor response to treatment. Here, we propose using spatiotemporal wavelet kinetic features from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging to quantify intratumor heterogeneity in breast cancer. Tumor pixels are first partitioned into homogeneous subregions using pharmacokinetic measures. Heterogeneity wavelet kinetic (HetWave) features are then extracted from these partitions to obtain spatiotemporal patterns of the wavelet coefficients and the contrast agent uptake. The HetWave features are evaluated in terms of their prognostic value using a logistic regression classifier with genetic algorithm wrapper-based feature selection to classify breast cancer recurrence risk as determined by a validated gene expression assay. Receiver operating characteristic analysis and area under the curve (AUC) are computed to assess classifier performance using leave-one-out cross validation. The HetWave features outperform other commonly used features (AUC = 0.88 HetWave versus 0.70 standard features). The combination of HetWave and standard features further increases classifier performance (AUCs 0.94). The rate of the spatial frequency pattern over the pharmacokinetic partitions can provide valuable prognostic information. HetWave could be a powerful feature extraction approach for characterizing tumor heterogeneity, providing valuable prognostic information.

  17. Reliability data banks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cannon, A.G.; Bendell, A.

    1991-01-01

    Following an introductory chapter on Reliability, what is it, why it is needed, how it is achieved and measured, the principles of reliability data bases and analysis methodologies are the subject of the next two chapters. Achievements due to the development of data banks are mentioned for different industries in the next chapter, FACTS, a comprehensive information system for industrial safety and reliability data collection in process plants are covered next. CREDO, the Central Reliability Data Organization is described in the next chapter and is indexed separately, as is the chapter on DANTE, the fabrication reliability Data analysis system. Reliability data banks at Electricite de France and IAEA's experience in compiling a generic component reliability data base are also separately indexed. The European reliability data system, ERDS, and the development of a large data bank come next. The last three chapters look at 'Reliability data banks, - friend foe or a waste of time'? and future developments. (UK)

  18. Cue reliability and a landmark stability heuristic determine relative weighting between egocentric and allocentric visual information in memory-guided reach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Patrick A; Crawford, J Douglas

    2010-06-01

    It is not known how egocentric visual information (location of a target relative to the self) and allocentric visual information (location of a target relative to external landmarks) are integrated to form reach plans. Based on behavioral data from rodents and humans we hypothesized that the degree of stability in visual landmarks would influence the relative weighting. Furthermore, based on numerous cue-combination studies we hypothesized that the reach system would act like a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), where the reliability of both cues determines their relative weighting. To predict how these factors might interact we developed an MLE model that weighs egocentric and allocentric information based on their respective reliabilities, and also on an additional stability heuristic. We tested the predictions of this model in 10 human subjects by manipulating landmark stability and reliability (via variable amplitude vibration of the landmarks and variable amplitude gaze shifts) in three reach-to-touch tasks: an egocentric control (reaching without landmarks), an allocentric control (reaching relative to landmarks), and a cue-conflict task (involving a subtle landmark "shift" during the memory interval). Variability from all three experiments was used to derive parameters for the MLE model, which was then used to simulate egocentric-allocentric weighting in the cue-conflict experiment. As predicted by the model, landmark vibration--despite its lack of influence on pointing variability (and thus allocentric reliability) in the control experiment--had a strong influence on egocentric-allocentric weighting. A reduced model without the stability heuristic was unable to reproduce this effect. These results suggest heuristics for extrinsic cue stability are at least as important as reliability for determining cue weighting in memory-guided reaching.

  19. Prognostic factors in oligodendrogliomas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westergaard, L; Gjerris, F; Klinken, L

    1997-01-01

    An outcome analysis was performed on 96 patients with pure cerebral oligodendrogliomas operated in the 30-year period 1962 to 1991. The most important predictive prognostic factors were youth and no neurological deficit, demonstrated as a median survival for the group younger than 20 years of 17...

  20. Prognostics and health management of engineering systems an introduction

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Nam-Ho; Choi, Joo-Ho

    2017-01-01

    This book introduces the methods for predicting the future behavior of a system’s health and the remaining useful life to determine an appropriate maintenance schedule. The authors introduce the history, industrial applications, algorithms, and benefits and challenges of PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) to help readers understand this highly interdisciplinary engineering approach that incorporates sensing technologies, physics of failure, machine learning, modern statistics, and reliability engineering. It is ideal for beginners because it introduces various prognostics algorithms and explains their attributes, pros and cons in terms of model definition, model parameter estimation, and ability to handle noise and bias in data, allowing readers to select the appropriate methods for their fields of application. Among the many topics discussed in-depth are: • Prognostics tutorials using least-squares • Bayesian inference and parameter estimation • Physics-based prognostics algorithms including non...

  1. Revisiting the online health information reliability debate in the wake of "web 2.0": an inter-disciplinary literature and website review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Samantha A

    2010-06-01

    The purpose of this inter-disciplinary literature review was to explore renewed concerns about the reliability of online health information in light of the increasing popularity of web applications that enable more end-user-generated content ("web 2.0"). The findings are based on a literature and web review. Literature was collected at four different points between October 2006 and October 2008 and included 56 sources from 10 academic disciplines. The web review consisted of following 6 blogs (including both new and archived posts, with comments) and one wiki for a period of 1.5 months and assessing the content for relevancy on six points, totaling 63 sources altogether. The reliability issues that are identified with respect to "web 2.0" reiterate more general concerns expressed about the web over the last 15 years. The difference, however, lies in the scope and scale of potential problems. Social scientists have also pointed to new issues that can be especially relevant for use of web 2.0 applications in health care. Specific points of renewed concern include: disclosure of authorship and information quality, anonymity and privacy, and the ability of individuals to apply information to their personal situation. Whether or not end-users understand what social scientists call "negative network externalities" is a new concern. Finally, not all reliability issues are negative-social networking and the shift from text-based information to symbolic information, images or interactive information, are considered to enhance patient education and to provide opportunities to reach diverse groups of patients. Interactive and collaborative web applications undeniably offer new opportunities for reaching patients and other health care consumers by facilitating lay information creation, sharing and retrieval. However, researchers must be careful and critical when incorporating applications or practices from other fields in health care. We must not easily dismiss concerns about

  2. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-02-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  3. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

    2015-01-01

    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  4. Human factor reliability program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knoblochova, L.

    2017-01-01

    The human factor's reliability program was at Slovenske elektrarne, a.s. (SE) nuclear power plants. introduced as one of the components Initiatives of Excellent Performance in 2011. The initiative's goal was to increase the reliability of both people and facilities, in response to 3 major areas of improvement - Need for improvement of the results, Troubleshooting support, Supporting the achievement of the company's goals. The human agent's reliability program is in practice included: - Tools to prevent human error; - Managerial observation and coaching; - Human factor analysis; -Quick information about the event with a human agent; -Human reliability timeline and performance indicators; - Basic, periodic and extraordinary training in human factor reliability(authors)

  5. MICRONUCLEI: A PROGNOSTIC TOOL

    OpenAIRE

    Ankit; Rinky; Manisha; Sonalika; Anand; Sanyog

    2014-01-01

    Squamous cell carcinoma is one the most common oral mucosal malignant tumor, diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma rarely presents difficulty, it is the cancer staging and histo pathological grading that are more important for prognosis, micronuclei are good prognostic indicator. Micronuclei screening can be done easily by exfoliative cytology, one of the most valuable diagnostic method other than routine histopathology (H and E-stained sections) and immunohistochemist...

  6. Prognostic factors of breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Ortega, Jose Maria; Morales Wong, Mario Miguel; Lopez Cuevas, Zoraida; Diaz Valdez, Marilin

    2011-01-01

    The prognostic factors must to be differentiated of the predictive ones. A prognostic factor is any measurement used at moment of the surgery correlated with the free interval of disease or global survival in the absence of the systemic adjuvant treatment and as result is able to correlate with the natural history of the disease. In contrast, a predictive factor is any measurement associated with the response to a given treatment. Among the prognostic factors of the breast cancer are included the clinical, histological, biological, genetic and psychosocial factors. In present review of psychosocial prognostic factors has been demonstrated that the stress and the depression are negative prognostic factors in patients presenting with breast cancer. It is essential to remember that the assessment of just one prognostic parameter is a help but it is not useful to clinical and therapeutic management of the patient.(author)

  7. Validity and reliability testing of two instruments to measure breast cancer patients' concerns and information needs relating to radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halkett, Georgia KB; Kristjanson, Linda J

    2007-01-01

    It is difficult to determine the most effective approach to patient education or tailor education interventions for patients in radiotherapy without tools that assess patients' specific radiation therapy information needs and concerns. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop psychometrically sound tools to adequately determine the concerns and information needs of cancer patients during radiation therapy. Two tools were developed to (1) determine patients concerns about radiation therapy (RT Concerns Scale) and (2) ascertain patient's information needs at different time point during their radiation therapy (RT Information Needs Scale). Tools were based on previous research by the authors, published literature on breast cancer and radiation therapy and information behaviour research. Thirty-one breast cancer patients completed the questionnaire on one occasion and thirty participants completed the questionnaire on a second occasion to facilitate test-retest reliability. One participant's responses were removed from the analysis. Results were analysed for content validity, internal consistency and stability over time. Both tools demonstrated high internal consistency and adequate stability over time. The nine items in the RT Concerns Scale were retained because they met all pre-set psychometric criteria. Two items were deleted from the RT Information Needs Scale because they did not meet content validity criteria and did not achieve pre-specified criteria for internal consistency. This tool now contains 22 items. This paper provides preliminary data suggesting that the two tools presented are reliable and valid and would be suitable for use in trials or in the clinical setting

  8. Validation of the translation of an instrument to measure reliability of written information on treatment choices: a study on attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montoya, A; Llopis, N; Gilaberte, I

    2011-12-01

    DISCERN is an instrument designed to help patients assess the reliability of written information on treatment choices. Originally created in English, there is no validated Spanish version of this instrument. This study seeks to validate the Spanish translation of the DISCERN instrument used as a primary measure on a multicenter study aimed to assess the reliability of web-based information on treatment choices for attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). We used a modified version of a method for validating translated instruments in which the original source-language version is formally compared with the back-translated source-language version. Each item was ranked in terms of comparability of language, similarity of interpretability, and degree of understandability. Responses used Likert scales ranging from 1 to 7, where 1 indicates the best interpretability, language and understandability, and 7 indicates the worst. Assessments were performed by 20 raters fluent in the source language. The Spanish translation of DISCERN, based on ratings of comparability, interpretability and degree of understandability (mean score (SD): 1.8 (1.1), 1.4 (0.9) and 1.6 (1.1), respectively), was considered extremely comparable. All items received a score of less than three, therefore no further revision of the translation was needed. The validation process showed that the quality of DISCERN translation was high, validating the comparable language of the tool translated on assessing written information on treatment choices for ADHD.

  9. Software reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bendell, A

    1986-01-01

    Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

  10. Reliability, Validity, and Utility of Instruments for Self-Report and Informant Report Concerning Symptoms of ADHD in Adult Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooij, J. J. Sandra; Boonstra, A. Marije; Swinkels, S. H. N.; Bekker, Evelijne M.; de Noord, Ineke; Buitelaar, Jan K.

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To study the correlation between symptoms of ADHD in adults, obtained with different methods and from different sources. Method: Information was obtained from 120 adults with ADHD, their partners, and their parents, using the ADHD Rating Scale, the Conners' Adult ADHD Rating Scales (CAARS), the Brown Attention-Deficit Disorder Scale…

  11. Reliability, validity, and utility of instruments for self-report and informant report concerning symptoms of ADHD in adult patients.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooij, J.J.S.; Boonstra, A.M.; Swinkels, S.H.N.; Bekker, E.M.; Noord, I. de; Buitelaar, J.K.

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study the correlation between symptoms of ADHD in adults, obtained with different methods and from different sources. METHOD: Information was obtained from 120 adults with ADHD, their partners, and their parents, using the ADHD Rating Scale, the Conners' Adult ADHD Rating Scales

  12. Prognostic factors for medulloblastoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkin, Derek; Al Shabanah, Mohamed; Al Shail, Essam; Gray, Alan; Hassounah, Maher; Khafaga, Yasser; Kofide, Amani; Mustafa, Mahmoud; Schultz, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate prognostic factors for medulloblastoma. Methods and Materials: One hundred and seventy-three consecutive patients with medulloblastoma, treated at King Faisal Specialist Hospital (KFSH) from 1988-1997, were reviewed. Eighty-four percent were children less than 15 years old. From 1988-1994, treatment was at the discretion of the investigator. From 1994-1998, patients entered a single-arm best practice protocol in which, in staged patients, the surgical intent was total resection, standard radiation treatment was defined, and adjuvant chemotherapy was given to a 'high-risk' subset. Results: For 150 patients who completed surgical and radiation treatment, the 5-year survival rate was 58%, compared with 0% for 16 patients who were unable to start or complete radiation treatment. For staged patients, the 5-year survival was M0 + M1, 78% and M2 + M3, 21% (p 14 years and gross cystic/necrotic features in the primary tumor. The size of the primary tumor, the degree of hydrocephalus at diagnosis, the presence of residual tumor in the post-operative CT/MRI, and the functional status of the patient prior to radiation treatment were not significant factors. Conclusions: Stage M0 + M1 was the most powerful favorable prognostic factor. In Saudi Arabia more patients present with advanced disseminated disease, 41% M2 + M3, than in the West, and this impacts adversely on overall survival. Total resection and standard radiation treatment were not sensitive prognostic factors in a treatment environment in which 78% of patients underwent at least 90% tumor resection and 60% received standard radiation treatment. In order to improve the proportion of patients able to complete radiation treatment, consideration should be given to limiting resection when the attainment of total resection is likely to be morbid, and to delaying rather than omitting radiation treatment in the patient severely compromised postoperatively

  13. Reliability of neural encoding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alstrøm, Preben; Beierholm, Ulrik; Nielsen, Carsten Dahl

    2002-01-01

    The reliability with which a neuron is able to create the same firing pattern when presented with the same stimulus is of critical importance to the understanding of neuronal information processing. We show that reliability is closely related to the process of phaselocking. Experimental results f...

  14. A reliable user authentication and key agreement scheme for Web-based Hospital-acquired Infection Surveillance Information System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhen-Yu; Tseng, Yi-Ju; Chung, Yufang; Chen, Yee-Chun; Lai, Feipei

    2012-08-01

    With the rapid development of the Internet, both digitization and electronic orientation are required on various applications in the daily life. For hospital-acquired infection control, a Web-based Hospital-acquired Infection Surveillance System was implemented. Clinical data from different hospitals and systems were collected and analyzed. The hospital-acquired infection screening rules in this system utilized this information to detect different patterns of defined hospital-acquired infection. Moreover, these data were integrated into the user interface of a signal entry point to assist physicians and healthcare providers in making decisions. Based on Service-Oriented Architecture, web-service techniques which were suitable for integrating heterogeneous platforms, protocols, and applications, were used. In summary, this system simplifies the workflow of hospital infection control and improves the healthcare quality. However, it is probable for attackers to intercept the process of data transmission or access to the user interface. To tackle the illegal access and to prevent the information from being stolen during transmission over the insecure Internet, a password-based user authentication scheme is proposed for information integrity.

  15. Pathohistological classification systems in gastric cancer: diagnostic relevance and prognostic value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlth, Felix; Bollschweiler, Elfriede; Drebber, Uta; Hoelscher, Arnulf H; Moenig, Stefan

    2014-05-21

    Several pathohistological classification systems exist for the diagnosis of gastric cancer. Many studies have investigated the correlation between the pathohistological characteristics in gastric cancer and patient characteristics, disease specific criteria and overall outcome. It is still controversial as to which classification system imparts the most reliable information, and therefore, the choice of system may vary in clinical routine. In addition to the most common classification systems, such as the Laurén and the World Health Organization (WHO) classifications, other authors have tried to characterize and classify gastric cancer based on the microscopic morphology and in reference to the clinical outcome of the patients. In more than 50 years of systematic classification of the pathohistological characteristics of gastric cancer, there is no sole classification system that is consistently used worldwide in diagnostics and research. However, several national guidelines for the treatment of gastric cancer refer to the Laurén or the WHO classifications regarding therapeutic decision-making, which underlines the importance of a reliable classification system for gastric cancer. The latest results from gastric cancer studies indicate that it might be useful to integrate DNA- and RNA-based features of gastric cancer into the classification systems to establish prognostic relevance. This article reviews the diagnostic relevance and the prognostic value of different pathohistological classification systems in gastric cancer.

  16. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-01-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  17. Prognostic factors in lupus nephritis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faurschou, Mikkel; Starklint, Henrik; Halberg, Poul

    2006-01-01

    To evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical and renal biopsy findings in an unselected cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and nephritis.......To evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical and renal biopsy findings in an unselected cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and nephritis....

  18. Human reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embrey, D.E.

    1987-01-01

    Concepts and techniques of human reliability have been developed and are used mostly in probabilistic risk assessment. For this, the major application of human reliability assessment has been to identify the human errors which have a significant effect on the overall safety of the system and to quantify the probability of their occurrence. Some of the major issues within human reliability studies are reviewed and it is shown how these are applied to the assessment of human failures in systems. This is done under the following headings; models of human performance used in human reliability assessment, the nature of human error, classification of errors in man-machine systems, practical aspects, human reliability modelling in complex situations, quantification and examination of human reliability, judgement based approaches, holistic techniques and decision analytic approaches. (UK)

  19. Reliability Calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Kurt Erling

    1986-01-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety...... and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic...... approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very...

  20. Current management and prognostic factors in physiotherapy practice for patients with shoulder pain: design of a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karel, Yasmaine H J M; Scholten-Peeters, Wendy G M; Thoomes-de Graaf, Marloes; Duijn, Edwin; Ottenheijm, Ramon P G; van den Borne, Maaike P J; Koes, Bart W; Verhagen, Arianne P; Dinant, Geert-Jan; Tetteroo, Eric; Beumer, Annechien; van Broekhoven, Joost B; Heijmans, Marcel

    2013-02-11

    Shoulder pain is disabling and has a considerable socio-economic impact. Over 50% of patients presenting in primary care still have symptoms after 6 months; moreover, prognostic factors such as pain intensity, age, disability level and duration of complaints are associated with poor outcome. Most shoulder complaints in this group are categorized as non-specific. Musculoskeletal ultrasound might be a useful imaging method to detect subgroups of patients with subacromial disorders.This article describes the design of a prospective cohort study evaluating the influence of known prognostic and possible prognostic factors, such as findings from musculoskeletal ultrasound outcome and working alliance, on the recovery of shoulder pain. Also, to assess the usual physiotherapy care for shoulder pain and examine the inter-rater reliability of musculoskeletal ultrasound between radiologists and physiotherapists for patients with shoulder pain. A prospective cohort study including an inter-rater reliability study. Patients presenting in primary care physiotherapy practice with shoulder pain are enrolled. At baseline validated questionnaires are used to measure patient characteristics, disease-specific characteristics and social factors. Physical examination is performed according to the expertise of the physiotherapists. Follow-up measurements will be performed 6, 12 and 26 weeks after inclusion. Primary outcome measure is perceived recovery, measured on a 7-point Likert scale. Logistic regression analysis will be used to evaluate the association between prognostic factors and recovery. The ShoCoDiP (Shoulder Complaints and using Diagnostic ultrasound in Physiotherapy practice) cohort study will provide information on current management of patients with shoulder pain in primary care, provide data to develop a prediction model for shoulder pain in primary care and to evaluate whether musculoskeletal ultrasound can improve prognosis.

  1. Reliability and safety engineering

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao

    2016-01-01

    Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

  2. Prognostic value of proliferation in pleomorphic soft tissue sarcomas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seinen, Jojanneke M; Jönsson, Mats; Bendahl, Pär-Ola O

    2012-01-01

    = 1.6-12.1), Top2a (hazard ratio = 2.2, CI = 1.2-3.5) and high S-phase fraction (hazard ratio = 1.8, CI = 1.2-3.7) significantly correlated with risk for metastasis. When combined with currently used prognostic factors, Ki-67, S-phase fraction and Top2a fraction contributed to refined identification...... of prognostic risk groups. Proliferation, as assessed by expression of Ki-67 and Top2a and evaluation of S-phase fraction and applied to statistical decision-tree models, provides prognostic information in soft tissue sarcomas of the extremity and trunk wall. Though proliferation contributes independently...... to currently applied prognosticators, its role is particularly strong when few other factors are available, which suggests a role in preoperative decision-making related to identification of high-risk individuals who would benefit from neoadjuvant therapy....

  3. The minimum information required for a glycomics experiment (MIRAGE) project: sample preparation guidelines for reliable reporting of glycomics datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struwe, Weston B; Agravat, Sanjay; Aoki-Kinoshita, Kiyoko F; Campbell, Matthew P; Costello, Catherine E; Dell, Anne; Ten Feizi; Haslam, Stuart M; Karlsson, Niclas G; Khoo, Kay-Hooi; Kolarich, Daniel; Liu, Yan; McBride, Ryan; Novotny, Milos V; Packer, Nicolle H; Paulson, James C; Rapp, Erdmann; Ranzinger, Rene; Rudd, Pauline M; Smith, David F; Tiemeyer, Michael; Wells, Lance; York, William S; Zaia, Joseph; Kettner, Carsten

    2016-09-01

    The minimum information required for a glycomics experiment (MIRAGE) project was established in 2011 to provide guidelines to aid in data reporting from all types of experiments in glycomics research including mass spectrometry (MS), liquid chromatography, glycan arrays, data handling and sample preparation. MIRAGE is a concerted effort of the wider glycomics community that considers the adaptation of reporting guidelines as an important step towards critical evaluation and dissemination of datasets as well as broadening of experimental techniques worldwide. The MIRAGE Commission published reporting guidelines for MS data and here we outline guidelines for sample preparation. The sample preparation guidelines include all aspects of sample generation, purification and modification from biological and/or synthetic carbohydrate material. The application of MIRAGE sample preparation guidelines will lead to improved recording of experimental protocols and reporting of understandable and reproducible glycomics datasets. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Using prognostic models in CLL to personalize approach to clinical care: Are we there yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mina, Alain; Sandoval Sus, Jose; Sleiman, Elsa; Pinilla-Ibarz, Javier; Awan, Farrukh T; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A

    2018-03-01

    Four decades ago, two staging systems were developed to help stratify CLL into different prognostic categories. These systems, the Rai and the Binet staging, depended entirely on abnormal exam findings and evidence of anemia and thrombocytopenia. Better understanding of biologic, genetic, and molecular characteristics of CLL have contributed to better appreciating its clinical heterogeneity. New prognostic models, the GCLLSG prognostic index and the CLL-IPI, emerged. They incorporate biologic and genetic information related to CLL and are capable of predicting survival outcomes and cases anticipated to need therapy earlier in the disease course. Accordingly, these newer models are helping develop better informed surveillance strategies and ultimately tailor treatment intensity according to presence (or lack thereof) of certain prognostic markers. This represents a step towards personalizing care of CLL patients. We anticipate that as more prognostic factors continue to be identified, the GCLLSG prognostic index and CLL-IPI models will undergo further revisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro

    2005-01-01

    No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

  6. Possibility of obtaining reliable information on component safety by means of large-scale tensile samples with Orowan-Soete flaws

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aurich, D.; Wobst, K.; Kafka, H.

    1984-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to review the present knowledge regarding the ability of wide plate tensile specimen with saw cut trough center flaws of providing accurate information on component reliability; it points out the advantages and disadvantages of this specimen geometries. The effect of temperature, specimen geometry, ligament size and notch radii are discussed in comparison with other specimen geometries. This is followed by a comparison of the results of such tests with tests on inside stressed tanks. Conclusions: wide-plate tensile specimen are generally appropriate for assessing welded joints. However, they result in a more favourable evaluation of low-toughness steels from the point of view of crack growth than of high-toughness and soft steels in case of stresses with incipient cracks, as compared with the results obtained with three-point bending samples. (orig.) [de

  7. Neurological prognostication of outcome in patients in coma after cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossetti, Andrea O; Rabinstein, Alejandro A; Oddo, Mauro

    2016-05-01

    Management of coma after cardiac arrest has improved during the past decade, allowing an increasing proportion of patients to survive, thus prognostication has become an integral part of post-resuscitation care. Neurologists are increasingly confronted with raised expectations of next of kin and the necessity to provide early predictions of long-term prognosis. During the past decade, as technology and clinical evidence have evolved, post-cardiac arrest prognostication has moved towards a multimodal paradigm combining clinical examination with additional methods, consisting of electrophysiology, blood biomarkers, and brain imaging, to optimise prognostic accuracy. Prognostication should never be based on a single indicator; although some variables have very low false positive rates for poor outcome, multimodal assessment provides resassurance about the reliability of a prognostic estimate by offering concordant evidence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. [Parenting stress and the reliability of parental information in the diagnostics of children and adolescents with symptoms of psychiatric and behavioral disorders].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irlbauer-Müller, Viktoria; Eichler, Anna; Stemmler, Mark; Moll, Gunther H; Kratz, Oliver

    2017-07-01

    Information from parents is regularly used in the diagnostic process of children and adolescents with psychiatric symptoms. But the reliability of this information is debatable, because the parents’ own stress can distort their perceptions of the child’s symptoms. For each of N = 68 children and adolescents (11–18 years) who were using mental health services for the first time, we evaluated the ratings of a parent and a professional clinician (internalizing, externalizing symptoms, total-problem score). In addition, parenting stress was scored on the Eltern-Belastungs-Inventars (EBI, Tröster, 2011), which measures both child-related stress and parent-related stress as well as total stress. Highly stressed parent ratings differed more from the clinicians’ ratings than the ratings of less stressed parents. Additionally, correlations showed that higher parenting stress resulted in larger differences between the parent’s and the clinician’s assessments. Multiple regressions proved the predictive value of child-caused parenting stress for these differences. These results apply for internalizing symptoms, externalizing symptoms, and total-problem score. Parenting stress should be evaluated systematically in order to carefully assess the value of the information from parents and to determine how it should be included in diagnostic and therapeutical decisions.

  9. PET-MR image fusion in soft tissue sarcoma: accuracy, reliability and practicality of interactive point-based and automated mutual information techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somer, Edward J.R.; Marsden, Paul K.; Benatar, Nigel A.; O'Doherty, Michael J.; Goodey, Joanne; Smith, Michael A.

    2003-01-01

    The fusion of functional positron emission tomography (PET) data with anatomical magnetic resonance (MR) or computed tomography images, using a variety of interactive and automated techniques, is becoming commonplace, with the technique of choice dependent on the specific application. The case of PET-MR image fusion in soft tissue is complicated by a lack of conspicuous anatomical features and deviation from the rigid-body model. Here we compare a point-based external marker technique with an automated mutual information algorithm and discuss the practicality, reliability and accuracy of each when applied to the study of soft tissue sarcoma. Ten subjects with suspected sarcoma in the knee, thigh, groin, flank or back underwent MR and PET scanning after the attachment of nine external fiducial markers. In the assessment of the point-based technique, three error measures were considered: fiducial localisation error (FLE), fiducial registration error (FRE) and target registration error (TRE). FLE, which represents the accuracy with which the fiducial points can be located, is related to the FRE minimised by the registration algorithm. The registration accuracy is best characterised by the TRE, which is the distance between corresponding points in each image space after registration. In the absence of salient features within the target volume, the TRE can be measured at fiducials excluded from the registration process. To assess the mutual information technique, PET data, acquired after physically removing the markers, were reconstructed in a variety of ways and registered with MR. Having applied the transform suggested by the algorithm to the PET scan acquired before the markers were removed, the residual distance between PET and MR marker-pairs could be measured. The manual point-based technique yielded the best results (RMS TRE =8.3 mm, max =22.4 mm, min =1.7 mm), performing better than the automated algorithm (RMS TRE =20.0 mm, max =30.5 mm, min =7.7 mm) when

  10. Fear of knowledge: Clinical hypotheses in diagnostic and prognostic reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiffi, Daniele; Zanotti, Renzo

    2017-10-01

    Patients are interested in receiving accurate diagnostic and prognostic information. Models and reasoning about diagnoses have been extensively investigated from a foundational perspective; however, for all its importance, prognosis has yet to receive a comparable degree of philosophical and methodological attention, and this may be due to the difficulties inherent in accurate prognostics. In the light of these considerations, we discuss a considerable body of critical thinking on the topic of prognostication and its strict relations with diagnostic reasoning, pointing out the distinction between nosographic and pathophysiological types of diagnosis and prognosis, underlying the importance of the explication and explanation processes. We then distinguish between various forms of hypothetical reasoning applied to reach diagnostic and prognostic judgments, comparing them with specific forms of abductive reasoning. The main thesis is that creative abduction regarding clinical hypotheses in diagnostic process is very unlikely to occur, whereas this seems to be often the case for prognostic judgments. The reasons behind this distinction are due to the different types of uncertainty involved in diagnostic and prognostic judgments. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Prognostic and predictive factors in colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolocan, A; Ion, D; Ciocan, D N; Paduraru, D N

    2012-01-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) is an important public health problem; it is a leading cause of cancer mortality in the industrialized world, second to lung cancer: each year there are nearly one million new cases of CRC diagnosed worldwide and half a million deaths (1). This review aims to summarise the most important currently available markers for CRC that provide prognostic or predictive information. Amongst others, it covers serum markers such as CEA and CA19-9, markers expressed by tumour tissues, such as thymidylate synthase, and also the expression/loss of expression of certain oncogenes and tumour suppressor genes such as K-ras and p53. The prognostic value of genomic instability, angiogenesis and proliferative indices, such as the apoptotic index, are discussed. The advent of new therapies created the pathway for a personalized approach of the patient. This will take into consideration the complex genetic mechanisms involved in tumorigenesis, besides the classical clinical and pathological stagings. The growing number of therapeutic agents and known molecular targets in oncology lead to a compulsory study of the clinical use of biomarkers with role in improving response and survival, as well as in reducing toxicity and establishing economic stability. The potential predictive and prognostic biomarkers which have arisen from the study of the genetic basis of colorectal cancer and their therapeutical significance are discussed. RevistaChirurgia.

  12. Lifecycle Prognostics Architecture for Selected High-Cost Active Components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    N. Lybeck; B. Pham; M. Tawfik; J. B. Coble; R. M. Meyer; P. Ramuhalli; L. J. Bond

    2011-08-01

    There are an extensive body of knowledge and some commercial products available for calculating prognostics, remaining useful life, and damage index parameters. The application of these technologies within the nuclear power community is still in its infancy. Online monitoring and condition-based maintenance is seeing increasing acceptance and deployment, and these activities provide the technological bases for expanding to add predictive/prognostics capabilities. In looking to deploy prognostics there are three key aspects of systems that are presented and discussed: (1) component/system/structure selection, (2) prognostic algorithms, and (3) prognostics architectures. Criteria are presented for component selection: feasibility, failure probability, consequences of failure, and benefits of the prognostics and health management (PHM) system. The basis and methods commonly used for prognostics algorithms are reviewed and summarized. Criteria for evaluating PHM architectures are presented: open, modular architecture; platform independence; graphical user interface for system development and/or results viewing; web enabled tools; scalability; and standards compatibility. Thirteen software products were identified and discussed in the context of being potentially useful for deployment in a PHM program applied to systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP). These products were evaluated by using information available from company websites, product brochures, fact sheets, scholarly publications, and direct communication with vendors. The thirteen products were classified into four groups of software: (1) research tools, (2) PHM system development tools, (3) deployable architectures, and (4) peripheral tools. Eight software tools fell into the deployable architectures category. Of those eight, only two employ all six modules of a full PHM system. Five systems did not offer prognostic estimates, and one system employed the full health monitoring suite but lacked operations and

  13. Lifecycle Prognostics Architecture for Selected High-Cost Active Components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lybeck, N.; Pham, B.; Tawfik, M.; Coble, J.B.; Meyer, R.M.; Ramuhalli, P.; Bond, L.J.

    2011-01-01

    There are an extensive body of knowledge and some commercial products available for calculating prognostics, remaining useful life, and damage index parameters. The application of these technologies within the nuclear power community is still in its infancy. Online monitoring and condition-based maintenance is seeing increasing acceptance and deployment, and these activities provide the technological bases for expanding to add predictive/prognostics capabilities. In looking to deploy prognostics there are three key aspects of systems that are presented and discussed: (1) component/system/structure selection, (2) prognostic algorithms, and (3) prognostics architectures. Criteria are presented for component selection: feasibility, failure probability, consequences of failure, and benefits of the prognostics and health management (PHM) system. The basis and methods commonly used for prognostics algorithms are reviewed and summarized. Criteria for evaluating PHM architectures are presented: open, modular architecture; platform independence; graphical user interface for system development and/or results viewing; web enabled tools; scalability; and standards compatibility. Thirteen software products were identified and discussed in the context of being potentially useful for deployment in a PHM program applied to systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP). These products were evaluated by using information available from company websites, product brochures, fact sheets, scholarly publications, and direct communication with vendors. The thirteen products were classified into four groups of software: (1) research tools, (2) PHM system development tools, (3) deployable architectures, and (4) peripheral tools. Eight software tools fell into the deployable architectures category. Of those eight, only two employ all six modules of a full PHM system. Five systems did not offer prognostic estimates, and one system employed the full health monitoring suite but lacked operations and

  14. Incorporation prior belief in the general path model: A comparison of information sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coble, Jamie; Hines, Wesley

    2014-01-01

    The general path model (GPM) is one approach for performing degradation-based, or Type III, prognostics. The GPM fits a parametric function to the collected observations of a prognostic parameter and extrapolates the fit to a failure threshold. This approach has been successfully applied to a variety of systems when a sufficient number of prognostic parameter observations are available. However, the parametric fit can suffer significantly when few data are available or the data are very noisy. In these instances, it is beneficial to include additional information to influence the fit to conform to a prior belief about the evolution of system degradation. Bayesian statistical approaches have been proposed to include prior information in the form of distributions of expected model parameters. This requires a number of run-to-failure cases with tracked prognostic parameters; these data may not be readily available for many systems. Reliability information and stressor-based (Type I and Type II, respectively) prognostic estimates can provide the necessary prior belief for the GPM. This article presents the Bayesian updating framework to include prior information in the GPM and compares the efficacy of including different information sources on two data sets.

  15. Reliability calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.E.

    1986-03-01

    Risk and reliability analysis is increasingly being used in evaluations of plant safety and plant reliability. The analysis can be performed either during the design process or during the operation time, with the purpose to improve the safety or the reliability. Due to plant complexity and safety and availability requirements, sophisticated tools, which are flexible and efficient, are needed. Such tools have been developed in the last 20 years and they have to be continuously refined to meet the growing requirements. Two different areas of application were analysed. In structural reliability probabilistic approaches have been introduced in some cases for the calculation of the reliability of structures or components. A new computer program has been developed based upon numerical integration in several variables. In systems reliability Monte Carlo simulation programs are used especially in analysis of very complex systems. In order to increase the applicability of the programs variance reduction techniques can be applied to speed up the calculation process. Variance reduction techniques have been studied and procedures for implementation of importance sampling are suggested. (author)

  16. Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is...

  17. Systems reliability/structural reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.

    1980-01-01

    The question of reliability technology using quantified techniques is considered for systems and structures. Systems reliability analysis has progressed to a viable and proven methodology whereas this has yet to be fully achieved for large scale structures. Structural loading variants over the half-time of the plant are considered to be more difficult to analyse than for systems, even though a relatively crude model may be a necessary starting point. Various reliability characteristics and environmental conditions are considered which enter this problem. The rare event situation is briefly mentioned together with aspects of proof testing and normal and upset loading conditions. (orig.)

  18. Finding Reliable Health Information Online

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... online resources. Online Medical Dictionaries and Encyclopedias Complex medical terminology can be difficult to understand. The Web provides some excellent resources to aid in our understanding of these terms and medical jargon. NHGRI Talking Glossary of Genetic Terms www. ...

  19. Short and long term prognostic importance of regional dyskinesia versus akinesia in acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjøller, E; Køber, L; Jørgensen, S

    2002-01-01

    outcome (up to seven years) with respect to mortality. RESULTS: Dyskinesia occurred in 673 patients (10.8%). In multivariate analysis, WMI was an important prognostic factor, with a relative risk of 2.4 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.2 to 2.7), while dyskinesia had no independent long term prognostic...... information, but the presence of dyskinesia only has prognostic importance for the first 30 days.......BACKGROUND: The prognostic importance of dyskinesia after acute myocardial infarction is unknown, and recommendations have been made that dyskinesia be included in calculations of wall motion index (WMI). OBJECTIVE: To determine whether it is necessary to distinguish between dyskinesia and akinesia...

  20. Prognostic biomarkers in osteoarthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attur, Mukundan; Krasnokutsky-Samuels, Svetlana; Samuels, Jonathan; Abramson, Steven B.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose of review Identification of patients at risk for incident disease or disease progression in osteoarthritis remains challenging, as radiography is an insensitive reflection of molecular changes that presage cartilage and bone abnormalities. Thus there is a widely appreciated need for biochemical and imaging biomarkers. We describe recent developments with such biomarkers to identify osteoarthritis patients who are at risk for disease progression. Recent findings The biochemical markers currently under evaluation include anabolic, catabolic, and inflammatory molecules representing diverse biological pathways. A few promising cartilage and bone degradation and synthesis biomarkers are in various stages of development, awaiting further validation in larger populations. A number of studies have shown elevated expression levels of inflammatory biomarkers, both locally (synovial fluid) and systemically (serum and plasma). These chemical biomarkers are under evaluation in combination with imaging biomarkers to predict early onset and the burden of disease. Summary Prognostic biomarkers may be used in clinical knee osteoarthritis to identify subgroups in whom the disease progresses at different rates. This could facilitate our understanding of the pathogenesis and allow us to differentiate phenotypes within a heterogeneous knee osteoarthritis population. Ultimately, such findings may help facilitate the development of disease-modifying osteoarthritis drugs (DMOADs). PMID:23169101

  1. Prognostics Applied to Electric Propulsion UAV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goebel, Kai; Saha, Bhaskar

    2013-01-01

    Health management plays an important role in operations of UAV. If there is equipment malfunction on critical components, safe operation of the UAV might possibly be compromised. A technology with particular promise in this arena is equipment prognostics. This technology provides a state assessment of the health of components of interest and, if a degraded state has been found, it estimates how long it will take before the equipment will reach a failure threshold, conditional on assumptions about future operating conditions and future environmental conditions. This chapter explores the technical underpinnings of how to perform prognostics and shows an implementation on the propulsion of an electric UAV. A particle filter is shown as the method of choice in performing state assessment and predicting future degradation. The method is then applied to the batteries that provide power to the propeller motors. An accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm is of critical importance to ensure the safe operation of the vehicle if one wants to maximize in-air time. Current reliability based techniques turn out to be insufficient to manage the use of such batteries where loads vary frequently in uncertain environments.

  2. 2017 NREL Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-08-15

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology -- both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  3. Reliability data book

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bento, J.P.; Boerje, S.; Ericsson, G.; Hasler, A.; Lyden, C.O.; Wallin, L.; Poern, K.; Aakerlund, O.

    1985-01-01

    The main objective for the report is to improve failure data for reliability calculations as parts of safety analyses for Swedish nuclear power plants. The work is based primarily on evaluations of failure reports as well as information provided by the operation and maintenance staff of each plant. In the report are presented charts of reliability data for: pumps, valves, control rods/rod drives, electrical components, and instruments. (L.E.)

  4. Microelectronics Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-17

    inverters  connected in a chain. ................................................. 5  Figure 3  Typical graph showing frequency versus square root of...developing an experimental  reliability estimating methodology that could both illuminate the  lifetime  reliability of advanced devices,  circuits and...or  FIT of the device. In other words an accurate estimate of the device  lifetime  was found and thus the  reliability  that  can  be  conveniently

  5. Assessment of diagnostic and prognostic condition indices for efficient and robust maintenance decision-making of systems subject to stress corrosion cracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huynh, K.T.; Grall, A.; Bérenguer, C.

    2017-01-01

    Seeking condition indices characterizing the health state of a system is a key problem in condition-based maintenance. For this purpose, diagnostic and prognostic models have been unceasingly developed and improved over the past few decades; nevertheless none of them explains thoroughly the impacts of such indices on the effectiveness of maintenance operations. As a complement to these efforts, this paper analyzes the effectiveness of some well-known diagnostic and prognostic indices for maintenance decision-making. The study is based on a system subject to competing risks due to multiple crack paths. A periodic inspection scheme is used to monitor the system health state. Each inspection returns the perfect diagnostic information: the number of cracks, corresponding crack sizes, and the system failure/working state. Based on this information, two kinds of prognostic condition indices are predicted: the average value and probability law of the system residual useful life. The associated condition-based maintenance strategies and cost models are then developed and compared with the ones whose maintenance decisions are based on diagnostic condition indices. The comparison results allow us to conclude on the performance and on the robustness of these strategies, hence giving some suggestions on the choice of reliable condition indices for maintenance decision-making. - Highlights: • Developing a new and generic degradation and failure model. • Synthesizing diagnostic and prognostic condition indices on the basis of the developed degradation and failure model. • Building diagnosis and prognosis-based maintenance strategies, and developing the associated cost models. • Assessing the performance and robustness of the considered strategies to find out reliable indices.

  6. Prognostic indicators in alcoholic cirrhotic men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gluud, C; Henriksen, Jens Henrik Sahl; Nielsen, G

    1988-01-01

    as wedged minus free hepatic vein pressure, and median pressure was 14 mm Hg (range = 3 to 26 mm Hg). Fourteen of 31 patients (45%) had esophageal varices at upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (the size being considered large in nine patients). During follow-up (median = 31 months; range = 2 to 51 months), 12...... patients (21%) developed variceal hemorrhage. Applying Cox's regression analysis, information about previous variceal bleeding (p = 0.0046), large varices at endoscopy (p = 0.012), hepatic vein pressure gradient (p = 0.0056) and indocyanine green clearance (p = 0.038) all contained significant prognostic...

  7. Research on key technology of prognostic and health management for autonomous underwater vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Zhi

    2017-12-01

    Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) are non-cable and autonomous motional underwater robotics. With a wide range of activities, it can reach thousands of kilometers. Because it has the advantages of wide range, good maneuverability, safety and intellectualization, it becomes an important tool for various underwater tasks. How to improve diagnosis accuracy of the AUVs electrical system faults, and how to repair AUVs by the information are the focus of navy in the world. In turn, ensuring safe and reliable operation of the system has very important significance to improve AUVs sailing performance. To solve these problems, in the paper the prognostic and health management(PHM) technology is researched and used to AUV, and the overall framework and key technology are proposed, such as data acquisition, feature extraction, fault diagnosis, failure prediction and so on.

  8. CISN Display Progress to Date - Reliable Delivery of Real-Time Earthquake Information, and ShakeMap to Critical End Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, H.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, E.; Friberg, P.; Frechette, K.; Given, D.

    2003-12-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) has collaborated to develop a next-generation earthquake notification system that is nearing its first operations-ready release. The CISN Display actively alerts users of seismic data, and vital earthquake hazards information following a significant event. It will primarily replace the Caltech/USGS Broadcast of Earthquakes (CUBE) and Rapid Earthquake Data Integration (REDI) Display as the principal means of delivering geographical seismic data to emergency operations centers, utility companies and media outlets. A subsequent goal is to provide automated access to the many Web products produced by regional seismic networks after an earthquake. Another aim is to create a highly configurable client, allowing user organizations to overlay infrastructure data critical to their roles as first-responders, or lifeline operators. And the final goal is to integrate these requirements, into a package offering several layers of reliability to ensure delivery of services. Central to the CISN Display's role as a gateway to Web-based earthquake products is its comprehensive XML-messaging schema. The message model uses many of the same attributes in the CUBE format, but extends the old standard by provisioning additional elements for products currently available, and others yet to be considered. The client consumes these XML-messages, sorts them through a resident Quake Data Merge filter, and posts updates that also include hyperlinks associated to specific event IDs on the display map. Earthquake products available for delivery to the CISN Display are ShakeMap, focal mechanisms, waveform data, felt reports, aftershock forecasts and earthquake commentaries. By design the XML-message schema can evolve as products and information needs change, without breaking existing applications that rely on it. The latest version of the CISN Display can also automatically download ShakeMaps and display shaking intensity within the GIS system. This

  9. Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Zhi-Ming; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi

    2013-01-01

    Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL

  10. Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Li, Zhi-Ming

    2013-05-03

    Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL.

  11. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteleone, S.

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research

  12. Twenty-fifth water reactor safety information meeting: Proceedings. Volume 2: Human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; Technical issues related to rulemakings; Risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; High burn-up fuel research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monteleone, S. [comp.] [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1998-03-01

    This three-volume report contains papers presented at the conference. The papers are printed in the order of their presentation in each session and describe progress and results of programs in nuclear safety research conducted in this country and abroad. Foreign participation in the meeting included papers presented by researchers from France, Japan, Norway, and Russia. The titles of the papers and the names of the authors have been updated and may differ from those that appeared in the final program of the meeting. This volume contains the following: (1) human reliability analysis and human performance evaluation; (2) technical issues related to rulemakings; (3) risk-informed, performance-based initiatives; and (4) high burn-up fuel research. Selected papers have been indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  13. Mathematical reliability an expository perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Mazzuchi, Thomas; Singpurwalla, Nozer

    2004-01-01

    In this volume consideration was given to more advanced theoretical approaches and novel applications of reliability to ensure that topics having a futuristic impact were specifically included. Topics like finance, forensics, information, and orthopedics, as well as the more traditional reliability topics were purposefully undertaken to make this collection different from the existing books in reliability. The entries have been categorized into seven parts, each emphasizing a theme that seems poised for the future development of reliability as an academic discipline with relevance. The seven parts are networks and systems; recurrent events; information and design; failure rate function and burn-in; software reliability and random environments; reliability in composites and orthopedics, and reliability in finance and forensics. Embedded within the above are some of the other currently active topics such as causality, cascading, exchangeability, expert testimony, hierarchical modeling, optimization and survival...

  14. Shoulder disorders in general practice : Prognostic indicators of outcome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Koes, Bart W.; Boeke, A. Joan P; Devillé, Walter; De Jong, Bareld A.; Bouter, Lex M.

    Background. Shoulder pain is common in primary health care. Nevertheless, information on the outcome of shoulder disorders is scarce, especially for patients encountered in general practice. Aim. To study the course of shoulder disorders in general practice and to determine prognostic indicators of

  15. Distributed Prognostics Based on Structural Model Decomposition

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based...

  16. Being an Informed Consumer of Health Information and Assessment of Electronic Health Literacy in a National Sample of Internet Users: Validity and Reliability of the e-HLS Instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seçkin, Gül; Yeatts, Dale; Hughes, Susan; Hudson, Cassie; Bell, Valarie

    2016-07-11

    The Internet, with its capacity to provide information that transcends time and space barriers, continues to transform how people find and apply information to their own lives. With the current explosion in electronic sources of health information, including thousands of websites and hundreds of mobile phone health apps, electronic health literacy is gaining an increasing prominence in health and medical research. An important dimension of electronic health literacy is the ability to appraise the quality of information that will facilitate everyday health care decisions. Health information seekers explore their care options by gathering information from health websites, blogs, Web-based forums, social networking websites, and advertisements, despite the fact that information quality on the Internet varies greatly. Nonetheless, research has lagged behind in establishing multidimensional instruments, in part due to the evolving construct of health literacy itself. The purpose of this study was to examine psychometric properties of a new electronic health literacy (ehealth literacy) measure in a national sample of Internet users with specific attention to older users. Our paper is motivated by the fact that ehealth literacy is an underinvestigated area of inquiry. Our sample was drawn from a panel of more than 55,000 participants maintained by Knowledge Networks, the largest national probability-based research panel for Web-based surveys. We examined the factor structure of a 19-item electronic Health Literacy Scale (e-HLS) through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency reliability, and construct validity on sample of adults (n=710) and a subsample of older adults (n=194). The AMOS graphics program 21.0 was used to construct a measurement model, linking latent factors obtained from EFA with 19 indicators to determine whether this factor structure achieved a good fit with our entire sample and the subsample (age ≥ 60

  17. Follicular lymphoma international prognostic index

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Solal-Céligny, Philippe; Roy, Pascal; Colombat, Philippe; White, Josephine; Armitage, Jim O.; Arranz-Saez, Reyes; Au, Wing Y.; Bellei, Monica; Brice, Pauline; Caballero, Dolores; Coiffier, Bertrand; Conde-Garcia, Eulogio; Doyen, Chantal; Federico, Massimo; Fisher, Richard I.; Garcia-Conde, Javier F.; Guglielmi, Cesare; Hagenbeek, Anton; Haïoun, Corinne; LeBlanc, Michael; Lister, Andrew T.; Lopez-Guillermo, Armando; McLaughlin, Peter; Milpied, Noël; Morel, Pierre; Mounier, Nicolas; Proctor, Stephen J.; Rohatiner, Ama; Smith, Paul; Soubeyran, Pierre; Tilly, Hervé; Vitolo, Umberto; Zinzani, Pier-Luigi; Zucca, Emanuele; Montserrat, Emili

    2004-01-01

    The prognosis of follicular lymphomas (FL) is heterogeneous and numerous treatments may be proposed. A validated prognostic index (PI) would help in evaluating and choosing these treatments. Characteristics at diagnosis were collected from 4167 patients with FL diagnosed between 1985 and 1992.

  18. Prognostic stratification of ulcerated melanoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bønnelykke-Behrndtz, Marie L; Schmidt, Henrik; Christensen, Ib J

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: For patients with melanoma, ulceration is an important prognostic marker and interestingly also a predictive marker for the response of adjuvant interferon. A consensual definition and accurate assessment of ulceration are therefore crucial for proper staging and clinical management. We...

  19. Serum prognostic biomarkers in head and neck cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ho-Sheng; Siddiq, Fauzia; Talwar, Harvinder S; Chen, Wei; Voichita, Calin; Draghici, Sorin; Jeyapalan, Gerald; Chatterjee, Madhumita; Fribley, Andrew; Yoo, George H; Sethi, Seema; Kim, Harold; Sukari, Ammar; Folbe, Adam J; Tainsky, Michael A

    2014-08-01

    A reliable estimate of survival is important as it may impact treatment choice. The objective of this study is to identify serum autoantibody biomarkers that can be used to improve prognostication for patients affected with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Prospective cohort study. A panel of 130 serum biomarkers, previously selected for cancer detection using microarray-based serological profiling and specialized bioinformatics, were evaluated for their potential as prognostic biomarkers in a cohort of 119 HNSCC patients followed for up to 12.7 years. A biomarker was considered positive if its reactivity to the particular patient's serum was greater than one standard deviation above the mean reactivity to sera from the other 118 patients, using a leave-one-out cross-validation model. Survival curves were estimated according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and statistically significant differences in survival were examined using the log rank test. Independent prognostic biomarkers were identified following analysis using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Poor overall survival was associated with African Americans (hazard ratio [HR] for death = 2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.58-4.33; P = .000), advanced stage (HR = 2.79; 95% CI: 1.40-5.57; P = .004), and recurrent disease (HR = 6.66; 95% CI: 2.54-17.44; P = .000). On multivariable Cox analysis adjusted for covariates (race and stage), six of the 130 markers evaluated were found to be independent prognosticators of overall survival. The results shown here are promising and demonstrate the potential use of serum biomarkers for prognostication in HNSCC patients. Further clinical trials to include larger samples of patients across multiple centers may be warranted. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  20. A Modeling Framework for Prognostic Decision Making and its Application to UAV Mission Planning

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of prognostic decision making (PDM) is to utilize information on anticipated system health changes in selecting future actions. One of the key challenges in...

  1. Implementation of Prognostic Methodologies to Cryogenic Propellant Loading Test-bed

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics methodologies determine the health state of a system and predict the end of life and remaining useful life. This information enables operators to take...

  2. A Testbed for Implementing Prognostic Methodologies on Cryogenic Propellant Loading Systems

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics technologies determine the health state of a system and predict its remaining useful life. With this information, operators are able to make...

  3. 76 FR 23171 - Electric Reliability Organization Interpretations of Interconnection Reliability Operations and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-26

    ... Reliability Standards for the Bulk-Power System, Order No. 693, FERC Stats. & Regs. ] 31,242, order on reh'g...-Power System reliability may request an interpretation of a Reliability Standard.\\7\\ The ERO's standards... information in its reliability assessments. The Reliability Coordinator must monitor Bulk Electric System...

  4. Proposal of resolution to create an inquiry commission on the french nuclear power plants reliability in case or earthquakes and on the safety, information and warning procedures in case of incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This short paper presents the reasons of the creation of parliamentary inquiry commission of 30 members, on the reliability of the nuclear power plants in France in case of earthquakes and on the safety, information and warning procedures in case of accidents. (A.L.B.)

  5. CISN Display - Reliable Delivery of Real-time Earthquake Information, Including Rapid Notification and ShakeMap to Critical End Users

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rico, H.; Hauksson, E.; Thomas, E.; Friberg, P.; Given, D.

    2002-12-01

    earthquake information on the Web. The links are automatically created when product generators deliver CUBE formatted packets to a Quake Data Distribution System (QDDS) hub (new distribution methods may be used later). The "feeder" modules tap into the QDDS hub and convert the packets into XML-messages. These messages are forwarded to message queues, and then distributed to clients where URLs are dynamically created for these products and linked to events on the CISN Display map. The products may be downloaded out-of-band; and with the inclusion of a GIS mapping tool users can plot organizational assets on the CISN Display map and overlay them against key spectral data, such as ground accelerations. This gives Emergency Response Managers information useful in allocating limited personnel and resources after a major event. At the heart of the system's robustness is a well-established and reliable set of communication protocols for best-effort delivery of data. For critical users a Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) state-full connection is used via a dedicated signaling channel. The system employs several CORBA methods that alert users of changes in the link status. Loss of connectivity triggers a strategy that attempts to reconnect through various physical and logical paths. Thus, by building on past application successes and proven Internet advances the CISN Display targets a specific audience by providing enhancements previously not available from other applications.

  6. Clonal diversity analysis using SNP microarray: a new prognostic tool for chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Linsheng; Znoyko, Iya; Costa, Luciano J; Conlin, Laura K; Daber, Robert D; Self, Sally E; Wolff, Daynna J

    2011-12-01

    Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a clinically heterogeneous disease. The methods currently used for monitoring CLL and determining conditions for treatment are limited in their ability to predict disease progression, patient survival, and response to therapy. Although clonal diversity and the acquisition of new chromosomal abnormalities during the disease course (clonal evolution) have been associated with disease progression, their prognostic potential has been underappreciated because cytogenetic and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) studies have a restricted ability to detect genomic abnormalities and clonal evolution. We hypothesized that whole genome analysis using high resolution single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarrays would be useful to detect diversity and infer clonal evolution to offer prognostic information. In this study, we used the Infinium Omni1 BeadChip (Illumina, San Diego, CA) array for the analysis of genetic variation and percent mosaicism in 25 non-selected CLL patients to explore the prognostic value of the assessment of clonal diversity in patients with CLL. We calculated the percentage of mosaicism for each abnormality by applying a mathematical algorithm to the genotype frequency data and by manual determination using the Simulated DNA Copy Number (SiDCoN) tool, which was developed from a computer model of mosaicism. At least one genetic abnormality was identified in each case, and the SNP data was 98% concordant with FISH results. Clonal diversity, defined as the presence of two or more genetic abnormalities with differing percentages of mosaicism, was observed in 12 patients (48%), and the diversity correlated with the disease stage. Clonal diversity was present in most cases of advanced disease (Rai stages III and IV) or those with previous treatment, whereas 9 of 13 patients without detected clonal diversity were asymptomatic or clinically stable. In conclusion, SNP microarray studies with simultaneous evaluation

  7. A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.

    2014-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

  8. Prognostic factors in canine appendicular osteosarcoma - a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boerman, Ilse; Selvarajah, Gayathri T; Nielen, Mirjam; Kirpensteijn, Jolle

    2012-05-15

    Appendicular osteosarcoma is the most common malignant primary canine bone tumor. When treated by amputation or tumor removal alone, median survival times (MST) do not exceed 5 months, with the majority of dogs suffering from metastatic disease. This period can be extended with adequate local intervention and adjuvant chemotherapy, which has become common practice. Several prognostic factors have been reported in many different studies, e.g. age, breed, weight, sex, neuter status, location of tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP), bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP), infection, percentage of bone length affected, histological grade or histological subtype of tumor. Most of these factors are, however, only reported as confounding factors in larger studies. Insight in truly significant prognostic factors at time of diagnosis may contribute to tailoring adjuvant therapy for individual dogs suffering from osteosarcoma. The objective of this study was to systematically review the prognostic factors that are described for canine appendicular osteosarcoma and validate their scientific importance. A literature review was performed on selected studies and eligible data were extracted. Meta-analyses were done for two of the three selected possible prognostic factors (SALP and location), looking at both survival time (ST) and disease free interval (DFI). The third factor (age) was studied in a qualitative manner. Both elevated SALP level and the (proximal) humerus as location of the primary tumor are significant negative prognostic factors for both ST and DFI in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma. Increasing age was associated with shorter ST and DFI, however, was not statistically significant because information of this factor was available in only a limited number of papers. Elevated SALP and proximal humeral location are significant negative prognosticators for canine osteosarcoma.

  9. The prognostic value of FET PET at radiotherapy planning in newly diagnosed glioblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoejklint Poulsen, Sidsel [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiation Biology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Clinical Physiology, Nuclear Medicine and PET, Copenhagen (Denmark); Urup, Thomas; Grunnet, Kirsten; Skovgaard Poulsen, Hans [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiation Biology, Copenhagen (Denmark); The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Oncology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Jarle Christensen, Ib [University of Copenhagen, Hvidovre Hospital, Laboratory of Gastroenterology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Larsen, Vibeke Andree [Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Lundemann Jensen, Michael; Munck af Rosenschoeld, Per [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Oncology, Copenhagen (Denmark); The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Section of Radiotherapy, Copenhagen (Denmark); Law, Ian [Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Clinical Physiology, Nuclear Medicine and PET, Copenhagen (Denmark)

    2017-03-15

    Glioblastoma patients show a great variability in progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). To gain additional pretherapeutic information, we explored the potential of O-(2-{sup 18}F-fluoroethyl)-L-tyrosine (FET) PET as an independent prognostic biomarker. We retrospectively analyzed 146 consecutively treated, newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients. All patients were treated with temozolomide and radiation therapy (RT). CT/MR and FET PET scans were obtained postoperatively for RT planning. We used Cox proportional hazards models with OS and PFS as endpoints, to test the prognostic value of FET PET biological tumor volume (BTV). Median follow-up time was 14 months, and median OS and PFS were 16.5 and 6.5 months, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, increasing BTV (HR = 1.17, P < 0.001), poor performance status (HR = 2.35, P < 0.001), O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase protein status (HR = 1.61, P = 0.024) and higher age (HR = 1.32, P = 0.013) were independent prognostic factors of poor OS. For poor PFS, only increasing BTV (HR = 1.18; P = 0.002) was prognostic. A prognostic index for OS was created based on the identified prognostic factors. Large BTV on FET PET is an independent prognostic factor of poor OS and PFS in glioblastoma patients. With the introduction of FET PET, we obtain a prognostic index that can help in glioblastoma treatment planning. (orig.)

  10. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert

    2006-08-01

    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  11. An Introduction To Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Kyoung Su

    1993-08-01

    This book introduces reliability with definition of reliability, requirement of reliability, system of life cycle and reliability, reliability and failure rate such as summary, reliability characteristic, chance failure, failure rate which changes over time, failure mode, replacement, reliability in engineering design, reliability test over assumption of failure rate, and drawing of reliability data, prediction of system reliability, conservation of system, failure such as summary and failure relay and analysis of system safety.

  12. Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung; Kim, Hyeonmin

    2016-01-01

    This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis

  13. The ErbB signalling pathway : protein expression and prognostic value in epithelial ovarian cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Graeff, P.; Crijns, A.P.; ten Hoor, K.A.; Klip, H.G.; Hollema, H.; Oien, K.; Bartlett, J.M.; Wisman, G.B.; de Bock, G.H.; de Vries, E.G.; de Jong, S.; van der Zee, A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Ovarian cancer is the most frequent cause of death from gynaecological cancer in the Western world. Current prognostic factors do not allow reliable prediction of response to chemotherapy and survival for individual ovarian cancer patients. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and HER-2/neu are

  14. Design and Validation of a Straight-Copy Typewriting Prognostic Test Using Kinesthetic Sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Norma Jean

    1979-01-01

    Describes the development and application of a kinesthetic sensitivity test to determine whether it is a valid and reliable measure of straight-copy typing speed and accuracy. The author states that this kinesthetic sensitivity instrument may be used as a prognostic aptitude test and recommends administration methods. (MF)

  15. Prognostic factors in Acanthamoeba keratitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiserman, Igor; Bahar, Irit; McAllum, Penny; Srinivasan, Sathish; Elbaz, Uri; Slomovic, Allan R; Rootman, David S

    2012-06-01

    To assess the prognostic factors influencing visual prognosis and length of treatment after acanthamoeba keratitis (AK). Forty-two AK eyes of 41 patients treated between 1999 and 2006 were included. A diagnosis of AK was made on the basis of culture results with a corresponding clinical presentation. We calculated the prognostic effect of the various factors on final visual acuity and the length of treatment. Multivariate regression analysis was used to adjust for the simultaneous effects of the various prognostic factors. Mean follow-up was 19.7 ± 21.0 months. Sixty-four percent of cases had > 1 identified risk factor for AK, the most common risk factor being contact lens wear (92.9% of eyes). At presentation, median best spectacle corrected visual acuity (BCVA) was 20/200 (20/30 to Hand Motion [HM]) that improved after treatment to 20/50 (20/20 to Counting Fingers [CF]). Infection acquired by swimming or related to contact lenses had significantly better final BCVA (p = 0.03 and p = 0.007, respectively). Neuritis and pseudodendrites were also associated with better final BCVA (p = 0.04 and p = 0.05, respectively). Having had an epithelial defect on presentation and having been treated with topical steroid were associated with worse final best spectacle corrected visual acuity (BSCVA) (p = 0.0006 and p = 0.04). Multivariate regression analysis found a good initial visual acuity (p = 0.002), infections related to swimming (p = 0.01), the absence of an epithelial defect (p = 0.03), having been treated with chlorhexidine (p = 0.05), and not having receive steroids (p = 0.003) to significantly forecast a good final BCVA. We identified several prognostic factors that can help clinicians evaluate the expected visual damage of the AK infection and thus tailor treatment accordingly. Copyright © 2012 Canadian Ophthalmological Society. All rights reserved.

  16. Development and validation of a prognostic model using blood biomarker information for prediction of survival of non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with combined chemotherapy and radiation or radiotherapy alone (NCT00181519, NCT00573040, and NCT00572325).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehing-Oberije, Cary; Aerts, Hugo; Yu, Shipeng; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Menheere, Paul; Hilvo, Mika; van der Weide, Hiska; Rao, Bharat; Lambin, Philippe

    2011-10-01

    Currently, prediction of survival for non-small-cell lung cancer patients treated with (chemo)radiotherapy is mainly based on clinical factors. The hypothesis of this prospective study was that blood biomarkers related to hypoxia, inflammation, and tumor load would have an added prognostic value for predicting survival. Clinical data and blood samples were collected prospectively (NCT00181519, NCT00573040, and NCT00572325) from 106 inoperable non-small-cell lung cancer patients (Stages I-IIIB), treated with curative intent with radiotherapy alone or combined with chemotherapy. Blood biomarkers, including lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, osteopontin, carbonic anhydrase IX, interleukin (IL) 6, IL-8, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), and cytokeratin fragment 21-1, were measured. A multivariate model, built on a large patient population (N = 322) and externally validated, was used as a baseline model. An extended model was created by selecting additional biomarkers. The model's performance was expressed as the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed by use of leave-one-out cross validation as well as a validation cohort (n = 52). The baseline model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume and yielded an AUC of 0.72. The extended model included two additional blood biomarkers (CEA and IL-6) and resulted in a leave-one-out AUC of 0.81. The performance of the extended model was significantly better than the clinical model (p = 0.004). The AUC on the validation cohort was 0.66 and 0.76, respectively. The performance of the prognostic model for survival improved markedly by adding two blood biomarkers: CEA and IL-6. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Prognostic factors for duration of sick leave due to low-back pain in dutch health care professionals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenstra, I.A.; Koopman, F.S.; Knol, D.L.; de Kat, E.; Bongers, P.M.; de Vet, H.C.W.; van Mechelen, W.

    2005-01-01

    Background: Information on prognostic factors for duration of sick leave due to low-back pain (LBP) is growing. In this prospective cohort study prognostic factors for duration of sick leave and course of disability were identified in a very early stage of sick leave due to LBP in an occupational

  18. Prognostic factors for duration of sick leave due to low-back pain in dutch health care professionals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steenstra, Ivan A.; Koopman, Fieke S.; Knol, Dirk L.; Kat, Eric; Bongers, Paulien M.; de Vet, Henrica C. W.; van Mechelen, Willem

    2005-01-01

    Information on prognostic factors for duration of sick leave due to low-back pain (LBP) is growing. In this prospective cohort study prognostic factors for duration of sick leave and course of disability were identified in a very early stage of sick leave due to LBP in an occupational health care

  19. A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kan, Man Shan; Tan, Andy C. C.; Mathew, Joseph

    2015-10-01

    The field of prognostics has attracted significant interest from the research community in recent times. Prognostics enables the prediction of failures in machines resulting in benefits to plant operators such as shorter downtimes, higher operation reliability, reduced operations and maintenance cost, and more effective maintenance and logistics planning. Prognostic systems have been successfully deployed for the monitoring of relatively simple rotating machines. However, machines and associated systems today are increasingly complex. As such, there is an urgent need to develop prognostic techniques for such complex systems operating in the real world. This review paper focuses on prognostic techniques that can be applied to rotating machinery operating under non-linear and non-stationary conditions. The general concept of these techniques, the pros and cons of applying these methods, as well as their applications in the research field are discussed. Finally, the opportunities and challenges in implementing prognostic systems and developing effective techniques for monitoring machines operating under non-stationary and non-linear conditions are also discussed.

  20. Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) User Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teubert, Christopher Allen; Daigle, Matthew John; Watkins, Jason; Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

    2016-01-01

    The Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) is a framework for applying prognostics. It makes applying prognostics easier by implementing many of the common elements across prognostic applications. The standard interface enables reuse of prognostic algorithms and models across systems using the GSAP framework.

  1. A Survey of Artificial Intelligence for Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Integrated Systems Health Management includes as key elements fault detection, fault diagnostics, and failure prognostics. Whereas fault detection and diagnostics...

  2. Metrics for Evaluating Performance of Prognostic Techniques

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition basedmaintenance(CBM)ofcriticalsystems.Alongwith developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently predict...

  3. Simulating Degradation Data for Prognostic Algorithm Development

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PHM08 Challenge Dataset is now publicly available at the NASA Prognostics Respository + Download INTRODUCTION - WHY SIMULATE DEGRADATION DATA? Of various challenges...

  4. A DISTRIBUTED PROGNOSTIC HEALTH MANAGEMENT ARCHITECTURE

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a generic distributed prognostic health management (PHM) architecture with specific application to the electrical power systems domain. Current...

  5. Procedures for controlling the risks of reliability, safety, and availability of technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-01-01

    The reference book covers four sections. Apart from the fundamental aspects of the reliability problem, of risk and safety and the relevant criteria with regard to reliability, the material presented explains reliability in terms of maintenance, logistics and availability, and presents procedures for reliability assessment and determination of factors influencing the reliability, together with suggestions for systems technical integration. The reliability assessment consists of diagnostic and prognostic analyses. The section on factors influencing reliability discusses aspects of organisational structures, programme planning and control, and critical activities. (DG) [de

  6. Thai venous stroke prognostic score: TV-SPSS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poungvarin, Niphon; Prayoonwiwat, Naraporn; Ratanakorn, Disya; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tassanee; Suwanwela, Nijasri; Phanthumchinda, Kamman; Tiamkoa, Somsak; Chankrachang, Siwaporn; Nidhinandana, Samart; Laptikultham, Somsak; Limsoontarakul, Sansern; Udomphanthuruk, Suthipol

    2009-11-01

    Prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) has never been studied in Thailand. A simple prognostic score to predict poor prognosis of CVST has also never been reported. The authors are aiming to establish a simple and reliable prognostic score for this condition. The medical records of CVST patients from eight neurological training centers in Thailand who received between April 1993 and September 2005 were reviewed as part of this retrospective study. Clinical features included headache, seizure, stroke risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure on arrival, papilledema, hemiparesis, meningeal irritation sign, location of occluded venous sinuses, hemorrhagic infarction, cerebrospinal fluid opening pressure, treatment options, length of stay, and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using modified Rankin scale (mRS). Poor prognosis (defined as mRS of 3-6) was determined on the discharge date. One hundred ninety four patients' records, 127 females (65.5%) and mean age of 36.6 +/- 14.4 years, were analyzed Fifty-one patients (26.3%) were in the poor outcome group (mRS 3-6). Overall mortality was 8.4%. Univariate analysis and then multivariate analysis using SPSS version 11.5 revealed only four statistically significant predictors influencing outcome of CVST They were underlying malignancy, low GCS, presence of hemorrhagic infarction (for poor outcome), and involvement of lateral sinus (for good outcome). Thai venous stroke prognostic score (TV-SPSS) was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for CVST outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (93%), yet low specificity (33%). The next study should focus on the validation of this score in other prospective populations.

  7. Reliability of the information about the history of diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. Differences in regard to sex, age, and educational level. The pró-saúde study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faerstein Eduardo

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the intraobserver reliability of the information about the history of diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. METHODS: A multidimensional health questionnaire, which was filled out by the interviewees, was applied twice with an interval of 2 weeks, in July '99, to 192 employees of the University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ, stratified by sex, age, and educational level. The intraobserver reliability of the answers provided was estimated by the kappa statistic and by the coefficient of intraclass correlation (CICC. RESULTS: The general kappa (k statistic was 0.75 (95% CI=0.73-0.77. Reliability was higher among females (k=0.88, 95% CI=0.85-0.91 than among males (k=0.62, 95% CI=0.59-0.65.The reliability was higher among individuals 40 years of age or older (k=0.79; 95% CI=0.73-0.84 than those from 18 to 39 years (k=0.52; 95% CI=0.45-0.57. Finally, the kappa statistic was higher among individuals with a university educational level (k=0.86; 95% CI=0.81-0.91 than among those with high school educational level (k=0.61; 95% CI=0.53-0.70 or those with middle school educational level (k=0.68; 95% CI=0.64-0.72. The coefficient of intraclass correlation estimated by the intraobserver agreement in regard to age at the time of the diagnosis of hypertension was 0.74. A perfect agreement between the 2 answers (k=1.00 was observed for 22 interviewees who reported prior prescription of antihypertensive medication. CONCLUSION: In the population studied, estimates of the reliability of the history of medical diagnosis of hypertension and its treatment ranged from substantial to almost perfect reliability.

  8. Prognostic Factors for Immune Thrombocytopenia Outcome in Greek Children: A Retrospective Single-Centered Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Makis, Alexandros; Gkoutsias, Athanasios; Palianopoulos, Theodoros; Pappa, Eleni; Papapetrou, Evangelia; Tsaousi, Christina; Hatzimichael, Eleftheria; Chaliasos, Nikolaos

    2017-01-01

    Immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in children has a varied course and according to duration is distinguished as newly diagnosed (12) types. Several studies have evaluated the prognostic factors for the progression of the disease, but similar works have yet to be performed in Greece. We aimed to identify prognostic markers for the three forms of the disease in 57 Greek children during a 13-year period. Information regarding age, gender, preceding infection, bleeding type, duration of symptoms and ...

  9. [Prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junod, Alain

    2016-03-23

    Nine prognostic scores for pulmonary embolism (PE), based on retrospective and prospective studies, published between 2000 and 2014, have been analyzed and compared. Most of them aim at identifying PE cases with a low risk to validate their ambulatory care. Important differences in the considered outcomes: global mortality, PE-specific mortality, other complications, sizes of low risk groups, exist between these scores. The most popular score appears to be the PESI and its simplified version. Few good quality studies have tested the applicability of these scores to PE outpatient care, although this approach tends to already generalize in the medical practice.

  10. PROGNOSTICAL COMPETENCE OF THE FUTURE TEACHERS-ACTORS: TO THE ISSUE OF THE CONCEPT DEFINITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Viktorovna Tsalko

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper on the basis of the notions of competence, forecasting, prognostical competence the author’s definition of future actors-teachers’ prognostical competence is developed. Under prognostic competence of future actors-teachers we understand a special competence that allows the subject, engaged in professional activities as a performer of roles in the theater (movies, TV, as well as performing teaching activities in the field of arts, to receive the necessary anticipatory information about the phenomenon under investigation (on performing roles in the theatre, films, and television, on the learning process and actors-teachers training. Components of prognostical competence as a type of competencies (cognitive, instrumental and operational and motivational-value are singled out. The feature of the future actor-teacher’s professional activities in the context of prognostical competence is viewed. It is the simultaneous solving the artistic-creative, organizational and teaching-upbringing problems.Purpose. The purpose of the paper is the definition of prognostical competence of future teachers-actors.Methodology. In the research the methods of theoretical level are used: comparison, analysis and synthesis, generalization, concretization; analytical methods; idealization and modeling.Result. The result of the research is the development of the author’s concept of «prognostical competence of the future teachers-actors».Practical implications. Application of the results: The results may be applied to the work of teachers-actors’ trainers as well as the researchers in Pedagogy.

  11. Current status of accurate prognostic awareness in advanced/terminally ill cancer patients: Systematic review and meta-regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen Hsiu; Kuo, Su Ching; Tang, Siew Tzuh

    2017-05-01

    No systematic meta-analysis is available on the prevalence of cancer patients' accurate prognostic awareness and differences in accurate prognostic awareness by publication year, region, assessment method, and service received. To examine the prevalence of advanced/terminal cancer patients' accurate prognostic awareness and differences in accurate prognostic awareness by publication year, region, assessment method, and service received. Systematic review and meta-analysis. MEDLINE, Embase, The Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were systematically searched on accurate prognostic awareness in adult patients with advanced/terminal cancer (1990-2014). Pooled prevalences were calculated for accurate prognostic awareness by a random-effects model. Differences in weighted estimates of accurate prognostic awareness were compared by meta-regression. In total, 34 articles were retrieved for systematic review and meta-analysis. At best, only about half of advanced/terminal cancer patients accurately understood their prognosis (49.1%; 95% confidence interval: 42.7%-55.5%; range: 5.4%-85.7%). Accurate prognostic awareness was independent of service received and publication year, but highest in Australia, followed by East Asia, North America, and southern Europe and the United Kingdom (67.7%, 60.7%, 52.8%, and 36.0%, respectively; p = 0.019). Accurate prognostic awareness was higher by clinician assessment than by patient report (63.2% vs 44.5%, p cancer patients accurately understood their prognosis, with significant variations by region and assessment method. Healthcare professionals should thoroughly assess advanced/terminal cancer patients' preferences for prognostic information and engage them in prognostic discussion early in the cancer trajectory, thus facilitating their accurate prognostic awareness and the quality of end-of-life care decision-making.

  12. Waste package reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pescatore, C.; Sastre, C.

    1983-01-01

    Proof of future performance of a complex system such as a high-level nuclear waste package over a period of hundreds to thousands of years cannot be had in the ordinary sense of the word. The general method of probabilistic reliability analysis could provide an acceptable framework to identify, organize, and convey the information necessary to satisfy the criterion of reasonable assurance of waste package performance according to the regulatory requirements set forth in 10 CFR 60. General principles which may be used to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative reliability of a waste package design are indicated and illustrated with a sample calculation of a repository concept in basalt. 8 references, 1 table

  13. Prognostic radiographic aspects of spondylolisthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saraste, H.; Brostroem, L.A.; Aparisi, T.

    1984-01-01

    A series of 202 patients (133 men, 69 women) with lumbar spondylolysis were examined radiographically on two occasions, first at the time of diagnosis and later at a follow-up, after an observation period of 20 years or more. The films frompatients in groups without and with moderate and severe olisthesis were evaluated with respect to variables describing lumbosacral lordosis, wedging of the spondylolytic vertebra, lengths of the transverse processes and iliolumbar ligaments, disk height, progression of slipping, and influence on measured olisthesis of lumbar spine flexion and extension at the radiographic examination. The evaluation was made with special attention to possible signs which could be predictive for the prognosis of vertebral slipping. Progression of slipping did not differ between patients diagnosed as adults or adolescents. Reduction of disk height was correlated to the degree of slipping present at the initial examination and to the progression of olisthesis. Flexion and extension of the lumbar spine did not modify the degree of olisthesis. Data concerning the lengths of the transverse processes and the iliolumbar ligaments, and lumbar lordosis, cannot be used for prognostic purposes. The lumbar index reflecting the degree of wedge deformity of the spondylolytic vertebra was shown to be the only variable of prognostic value for the development of vertebral slipping. (orig.)

  14. Prognostic radiographic aspects of spondylolisthesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saraste, H; Brostroem, L A; Aparisi, T

    1984-01-01

    A series of 202 patients (133 men, 69 women) with lumbar spondylolysis were examined radiographically on two occasions, first at the time of diagnosis and later at a follow-up, after an observation period of 20 years or more. The films from patients in groups without and with moderate and severe olisthesis were evaluated with respect to variables describing lumbosacral lordosis, wedging of the spondylolytic vertebra, lengths of the transverse processes and iliolumbar ligaments, disk height, progression of slipping, and influence on measured olisthesis of lumbar spine flexion and extension at the radiographic examination. The evaluation was made with special attention to possible signs which could be predictive for the prognosis of vertebral slipping. Progression of slipping did not differ between patients diagnosed as adults or adolescents. Reduction of disk height was correlated to the degree of slipping present at the initial examination and to the progression of olisthesis. Flexion and extension of the lumbar spine did not modify the degree of olisthesis. Data concerning the lengths of the transverse processes and the iliolumbar ligaments, and lumbar lordosis, cannot be used for prognostic purposes. The lumbar index reflecting the degree of wedge deformity of the spondylolytic vertebra was shown to be the only variable of prognostic value for the development of vertebral slipping.

  15. Prognostic factors in Fournier gangrene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Tovar, Jaime; Córdoba, Luis; Devesa, Jose Manuel

    2012-01-01

    Fournier gangrene is a necrotizing fasciitis, arising in the genital and perineal area. This entity is still associated with a high mortality rate despite improvements in antibiotic and surgical treatment. This is a retrospective study of all the patients diagnosed and surgically treated for Fournier gangrene at General University Hospital Ramon y Cajal between 1988 and 2008. Possible prognostic factors that could have any influence on the evolution of Fournier gangrene were analyzed. Seventy patients were analyzed, 62 males (88.6%) and 8 females (11.4%) with a mean age of 57.9 ± 13.5 years. Most frequent clinical manifestations were perineal pain (82.9%) and fever (60%). Physical examination revealed edema (91.4%), erythema (88.6%) and perineal skin necrosis (60%). All the patients underwent surgical debridement of necrotic tissue. In 54.3% reoperations were necessary for new surgical debridements. Medical complications rate was 27.1% and mortality one 22.9%. Ethylism, coexistence of neoplasms, presence of skin necrosis, myonecrosis, abdominal wall affection, number of debrided areas, reoperations, concentration of creatinine in serum>1.4 mg/dL, and hemoglobin <10 g/dL, and platelet count <150 × 10(9)/L in whole blood are associated with higher mortality rates. Identification of prognostic factors may help to determine high-risk patients in order to establish an optimal treatment, according to severity of the infection and general status. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boring, Ronald; Mandelli, Diego; Rasmussen, Martin; Ulrich, Thomas; Groth, Katrina; Smith, Curtis

    2016-01-01

    This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: • Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.

  17. Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmussen, Martin [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Social Research; Herberger, Sarah [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ulrich, Thomas [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-06-01

    This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: • Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.

  18. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...

  19. System Reliability Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Tae Jin

    2005-02-01

    This book tells of reliability engineering, which includes quality and reliability, reliability data, importance of reliability engineering, reliability and measure, the poisson process like goodness of fit test and the poisson arrival model, reliability estimation like exponential distribution, reliability of systems, availability, preventive maintenance such as replacement policies, minimal repair policy, shock models, spares, group maintenance and periodic inspection, analysis of common cause failure, and analysis model of repair effect.

  20. Discussion on an informative system set-up for the registration and processing of reliability data on FBR components in view of its application to design and safety studies and plant exploitation improvement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Righini, R.; Sola, P.G.; Zappellini, G.

    1990-01-01

    This report describes the set-up and management activities carried-out by ENEA-VEL in collaboration with NIER in the development of a reliability data bank on fast reactor components; this data bank consists of an informative system implemented on the IBM 3090 computer of the ENEA centre of Bologna starting from the software of the CEDB, set-up by CCR Euratom of Ispra for the registration of reliability data on thermal reactor components. This report will contain a detailed description of all the modules (engineering, operating, etc.) provided in the informative system and of the modifications introduced by ENEA in order to adapt them to the peculiarities of the fast reactors and to increase its flexibility; a short description of the available data processing methods will be also included. It will be followed by a comparison between the results obtained applying the classical methods and the particular ones set-up by ENEA: this comparison will be useful to demonstrate the importance of the method applied in order to obtain significative reliability processed data. This report will be also useful to show the importance of the set-up data bank in the improvement of the component design and of the plant safety and exploitation with particular reference to the research of the critical areas and to the definition of the best inspection and maintenance programs

  1. Photovoltaic performance and reliability workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mrig, L. [ed.

    1993-12-01

    This workshop was the sixth in a series of workshops sponsored by NREL/DOE under the general subject of photovoltaic testing and reliability during the period 1986--1993. PV performance and PV reliability are at least as important as PV cost, if not more. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities, and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in the field were brought together to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this evolving field of PV reliability. The papers presented here reflect this effort since the last workshop held in September, 1992. The topics covered include: cell and module characterization, module and system testing, durability and reliability, system field experience, and standards and codes.

  2. Web measurement - a tool to achieve reliable information on custody transfer measurement systems in pipeline operations; Web medicao - uma ferramenta de consolidacao de informacoes sobre sistemas de medicao para transferencia de custodia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cid, Eliane Areas; Freitas, Surama de Oliveitra [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas; Ferreira, Ana Luisa Auler da Silva; Dias, Gerson Vieira [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2003-07-01

    The prompt and organized information about measurement systems is essential for custody transfer in the pipeline transportation business. This organized information can serve as a basis for operational, maintenance and commercial groups in pipeline transportation companies. This information can also help management in planning future improvements in hardware for custody transfer measurements. In nation-wide companies, like TRANSPETRO, information about custody transfer measurement systems, if not organized, will be scattered geographically and organizationally. In organizing this kind of information, distributed systems have a big advantage, with information maintained by operational groups and centralized in the headquarters of the company. This paper describes the implementation of a system for consolidating and updating company information about custody transfer measurement systems for liquid and gas. The system has been implemented on the Intranet, allowing initial data entry in a distributed way, and a centralized validation by the headquarters engineering group. The new methodology has sharply increased the reliability in the information of custody transfer measurement systems in the company. (author)

  3. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen Ringi, M

    1995-05-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  4. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen Ringi, M.

    1995-01-01

    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person's state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs

  5. 2015 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshops

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-14

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  6. 2016 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-07

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  7. Transitions in Prognostic Awareness Among Terminally Ill Cancer Patients in Their Last 6 Months of Life Examined by Multi-State Markov Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsiu Chen, Chen; Wen, Fur-Hsing; Hou, Ming-Mo; Hsieh, Chia-Hsun; Chou, Wen-Chi; Chen, Jen-Shi; Chang, Wen-Cheng; Tang, Siew Tzuh

    2017-09-01

    higher states of awareness. Health care professionals should appropriately assess patients' readiness for prognostic information and respect patients' reluctance to confront their poor prognosis if they are not ready to know, but sensitively coach them to cultivate their accurate prognostic awareness, provide desired and understandable prognostic information for those who are ready to know, and give direct and honest prognostic information to clarify any misunderstandings for those with inaccurate awareness, thus ensuring that they develop accurate and realistic prognostic knowledge in time to make end-of-life care decisions. © AlphaMed Press 2017.

  8. Application of reliability methods in Ontario Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeppesen, R.; Ravishankar, T.J.

    1985-01-01

    Ontario Hydro have established a reliability program in support of its substantial nuclear program. Application of the reliability program to achieve both production and safety goals is described. The value of such a reliability program is evident in the record of Ontario Hydro's operating nuclear stations. The factors which have contributed to the success of the reliability program are identified as line management's commitment to reliability; selective and judicious application of reliability methods; establishing performance goals and monitoring the in-service performance; and collection, distribution, review and utilization of performance information to facilitate cost-effective achievement of goals and improvements. (orig.)

  9. AMSAA Reliability Growth Guide

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Broemm, William

    2000-01-01

    ... has developed reliability growth methodology for all phases of the process, from planning to tracking to projection. The report presents this methodology and associated reliability growth concepts.

  10. Information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyard, Pierre.

    1981-01-01

    The fear for nuclear energy and more particularly for radioactive wastes is analyzed in the sociological context. Everybody agree on the information need, information is available but there is a problem for their diffusion. Reactions of the public are analyzed and journalists, scientists and teachers have a role to play [fr

  11. Optimization of Water Chemistry to Ensure Reliable Water Reactor Fuel Performance at High Burnup and in Ageing Plant (FUWAC). Additional Information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-10-01

    This report presents the results of the Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on Optimization of Water Chemistry to Ensure Reliable Water Reactor Fuel Performance at High Burnup and in Ageing Plants (FUWAC, 2006-2009). It provides an overview of the results of the investigations into the current state of water chemistry practice and concerns in the primary circuit of water cooled power reactors including: corrosion of primary circuit materials; deposit composition and thickness on the fuel; crud induced power shift; fuel oxide growth and thickness; radioactivity buildup in the reactor coolant system (RCS). The FUWAC CRP is a follow-up to the DAWAC CRP (Data Processing Technologies and Diagnostics for Water Chemistry and Corrosion Control in Nuclear Power Plants 2001-2005). The DAWAC project improved the data processing technologies and diagnostics for water chemistry and corrosion control in nuclear power plants (NPPs). With the improved methods for controlling and monitoring water chemistry now available, it was felt that a review of the principles of water chemistry management should be undertaken in the light of new materials, more onerous operating conditions, emergent issues such as CIPS, also known as axial offset anomaly (AOA) and the ageing of operating power plant. In the framework of this CRP, water chemistry specialists from 16 nuclear utilities and research organizations, representing 15 countries, exchanged experimental and operational data, models and insights into water chemistry management. This CD-ROM attached to the printed IAEA-TECDOC includes the report itself, detailed progress reports of three Research Coordination Meetings (RCMs) (Annexes I-III) and the reports and presentations made during the project by the participants.

  12. A reliability simulation language for reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deans, N.D.; Miller, A.J.; Mann, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    The results of work being undertaken to develop a Reliability Description Language (RDL) which will enable reliability analysts to describe complex reliability problems in a simple, clear and unambiguous way are described. Component and system features can be stated in a formal manner and subsequently used, along with control statements to form a structured program. The program can be compiled and executed on a general-purpose computer or special-purpose simulator. (DG)

  13. Systematic review of prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verwoerd, A J H; Luijsterburg, P A J; Lin, C W C; Jacobs, W C H; Koes, B W; Verhagen, A P

    2013-09-01

    Identification of prognostic factors for surgery in patients with sciatica is important to be able to predict surgery in an early stage. Identification of prognostic factors predicting persistent pain, disability and recovery are important for better understanding of the clinical course, to inform patient and physician and support decision making. Consequently, we aimed to systematically review prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica. A search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cinahl, up to March 2012 was performed for prospective cohort studies on prognostic factors for non-surgically treated sciatica. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and assessed the risk of bias. Outcomes were pain, disability, recovery and surgery. A best evidence synthesis was carried out in order to assess and summarize the data. The initial search yielded 4392 articles of which 23 articles reporting on 14 original cohorts met the inclusion criteria. High clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity among studies was found. Reported evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting the outcome in sciatica is limited. The majority of factors that have been evaluated, e.g., age, body mass index, smoking and sensory disturbance, showed no association with outcome. The only positive association with strong evidence was found for leg pain intensity at baseline as prognostic factor for subsequent surgery. © 2013 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

  14. Clinical Relevance of Prognostic and Predictive Molecular Markers in Gliomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegal, Tali

    2016-01-01

    Sorting and grading of glial tumors by the WHO classification provide clinicians with guidance as to the predicted course of the disease and choice of treatment. Nonetheless, histologically identical tumors may have very different outcome and response to treatment. Molecular markers that carry both diagnostic and prognostic information add useful tools to traditional classification by redefining tumor subtypes within each WHO category. Therefore, molecular markers have become an integral part of tumor assessment in modern neuro-oncology and biomarker status now guides clinical decisions in some subtypes of gliomas. The routine assessment of IDH status improves histological diagnostic accuracy by differentiating diffuse glioma from reactive gliosis. It carries a favorable prognostic implication for all glial tumors and it is predictive for chemotherapeutic response in anaplastic oligodendrogliomas with codeletion of 1p/19q chromosomes. Glial tumors that contain chromosomal codeletion of 1p/19q are defined as tumors of oligodendroglial lineage and have favorable prognosis. MGMT promoter methylation is a favorable prognostic marker in astrocytic high-grade gliomas and it is predictive for chemotherapeutic response in anaplastic gliomas with wild-type IDH1/2 and in glioblastoma of the elderly. The clinical implication of other molecular markers of gliomas like mutations of EGFR and ATRX genes and BRAF fusion or point mutation is highlighted. The potential of molecular biomarker-based classification to guide future therapeutic approach is discussed and accentuated.

  15. Diagnostic and Prognostic Value of Long-Axis Strain and Myocardial Contraction Fraction Using Standard Cardiovascular MR Imaging in Patients with Nonischemic Dilated Cardiomyopathies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenja, Nisha; Riffel, Johannes H; Fritz, Thomas; André, Florian; Aus dem Siepen, Fabian; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Katus, Hugo A; Friedrich, Matthias G; Buss, Sebastian J

    2017-06-01

    Purpose To assess the utility of established functional markers versus two additional functional markers derived from standard cardiovascular magnetic resonance (MR) images for their incremental diagnostic and prognostic information in patients with nonischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM). Materials and Methods Approval was obtained from the local ethics committee. MR images from 453 patients with NIDCM and 150 healthy control subjects were included between 2005 and 2013 and were analyzed retrospectively. Myocardial contraction fraction (MCF) was calculated by dividing left ventricular (LV) stroke volume by LV myocardial volume, and long-axis strain (LAS) was calculated from the distances between the epicardial border of the LV apex and the midpoint of a line connecting the origins of the mitral valve leaflets at end systole and end diastole. Receiver operating characteristic curve, Kaplan-Meier method, Cox regression, and classification and regression tree (CART) analyses were performed for diagnostic and prognostic performances. Results LAS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.93, P < .001) and MCF (AUC = 0.92, P < .001) can be used to discriminate patients with NIDCM from age- and sex-matched control subjects. A total of 97 patients reached the combined end point during a median follow-up of 4.8 years. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, only LV ejection fraction (EF) and LAS independently indicated the combined end point (hazard ratio = 2.8 and 1.9, respectively; P < .001 for both). In a risk stratification approach with classification and regression tree analysis, combined LV EF and LAS cutoff values were used to stratify patients into three risk groups (log-rank test, P < .001). Conclusion Cardiovascular MR-derived MCF and LAS serve as reliable diagnostic and prognostic markers in patients with NIDCM. LAS, as a marker for longitudinal contractile function, is an independent parameter for outcome and offers incremental

  16. Calculating system reliability with SRFYDO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morzinski, Jerome [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klamann, Richard M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-01-01

    SRFYDO is a process for estimating reliability of complex systems. Using information from all applicable sources, including full-system (flight) data, component test data, and expert (engineering) judgment, SRFYDO produces reliability estimates and predictions. It is appropriate for series systems with possibly several versions of the system which share some common components. It models reliability as a function of age and up to 2 other lifecycle (usage) covariates. Initial output from its Exploratory Data Analysis mode consists of plots and numerical summaries so that the user can check data entry and model assumptions, and help determine a final form for the system model. The System Reliability mode runs a complete reliability calculation using Bayesian methodology. This mode produces results that estimate reliability at the component, sub-system, and system level. The results include estimates of uncertainty, and can predict reliability at some not-too-distant time in the future. This paper presents an overview of the underlying statistical model for the analysis, discusses model assumptions, and demonstrates usage of SRFYDO.

  17. Metrics for Evaluating Performance of Prognostics Techniques

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition based maintenance (CBM) of critical systems. Along with developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently...

  18. Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by...

  19. Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has taken center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system so that remedial...

  20. Prognostic Factors for Refractory Status Epilepticus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Gordon Millichap

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Researchers at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN studied the outcome and identified prognostic factors for refractory status epilepticus (RSE in 54 adult patients, median age 52 years [range 18-93].

  1. Prognostic markers for colorectal cancer: estimating ploidy and stroma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danielsen, H E; Hveem, T S; Domingo, E; Pradhan, M; Kleppe, A; Syvertsen, R A; Kostolomov, I; Nesheim, J A; Askautrud, H A; Nesbakken, A; Lothe, R A; Svindland, A; Shepherd, N; Novelli, M; Johnstone, E; Tomlinson, I; Kerr, R; Kerr, D J

    2018-03-01

    We report here the prognostic value of ploidy and digital tumour-stromal morphometric analyses using material from 2624 patients with early stage colorectal cancer (CRC). DNA content (ploidy) and stroma-tumour fraction were estimated using automated digital imaging systems and DNA was extracted from sections of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue for analysis of microsatellite instability. Samples were available from 1092 patients recruited to the QUASAR 2 trial and two large observational series (Gloucester, n = 954; Oslo University Hospital, n = 578). Resultant biomarkers were analysed for prognostic impact using 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) as the clinical end point. Ploidy and stroma-tumour fraction were significantly prognostic in a multivariate model adjusted for age, adjuvant treatment, and pathological T-stage in stage II patients, and the combination of ploidy and stroma-tumour fraction was found to stratify these patients into three clinically useful groups; 5-year CSS 90% versus 83% versus 73% [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.77 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.13-2.77) and HR = 2.95 (95% CI: 1.73-5.03), P < 0.001]. A novel biomarker, combining estimates of ploidy and stroma-tumour fraction, sampled from FFPE tissue, identifies stage II CRC patients with low, intermediate or high risk of CRC disease specific death, and can reliably stratify clinically relevant patient sub-populations with differential risks of tumour recurrence and may support choice of adjuvant therapy for these individuals.

  2. Reliability issues at the LHC

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva. Audiovisual Unit; Gillies, James D

    2002-01-01

    The Lectures on reliability issues at the LHC will be focused on five main Modules on five days. Module 1: Basic Elements in Reliability Engineering Some basic terms, definitions and methods, from components up to the system and the plant, common cause failures and human factor issues. Module 2: Interrelations of Reliability & Safety (R&S) Reliability and risk informed approach, living models, risk monitoring. Module 3: The ideal R&S Process for Large Scale Systems From R&S goals via the implementation into the system to the proof of the compliance. Module 4: Some Applications of R&S on LHC Master logic, anatomy of risk, cause - consequence diagram, decomposition and aggregation of the system. Module 5: Lessons learned from R&S Application in various Technologies Success stories, pitfalls, constrains in data and methods, limitations per se, experienced in aviation, space, process, nuclear, offshore and transport systems and plants. The Lectures will reflect in summary the compromise in...

  3. Reliability analysis in intelligent machines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcinroy, John E.; Saridis, George N.

    1990-01-01

    Given an explicit task to be executed, an intelligent machine must be able to find the probability of success, or reliability, of alternative control and sensing strategies. By using concepts for information theory and reliability theory, new techniques for finding the reliability corresponding to alternative subsets of control and sensing strategies are proposed such that a desired set of specifications can be satisfied. The analysis is straightforward, provided that a set of Gaussian random state variables is available. An example problem illustrates the technique, and general reliability results are presented for visual servoing with a computed torque-control algorithm. Moreover, the example illustrates the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence at the execution level of an intelligent machine.

  4. Reliability analysis and operator modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollnagel, Erik

    1996-01-01

    The paper considers the state of operator modelling in reliability analysis. Operator models are needed in reliability analysis because operators are needed in process control systems. HRA methods must therefore be able to account both for human performance variability and for the dynamics of the interaction. A selected set of first generation HRA approaches is briefly described in terms of the operator model they use, their classification principle, and the actual method they propose. In addition, two examples of second generation methods are also considered. It is concluded that first generation HRA methods generally have very simplistic operator models, either referring to the time-reliability relationship or to elementary information processing concepts. It is argued that second generation HRA methods must recognise that cognition is embedded in a context, and be able to account for that in the way human reliability is analysed and assessed

  5. Reliability and Maintainability (RAM) Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalli, Vincent R. (Editor); Malec, Henry A. (Editor); Packard, Michael H. (Editor)

    2000-01-01

    The theme of this manual is failure physics-the study of how products, hardware, software, and systems fail and what can be done about it. The intent is to impart useful information, to extend the limits of production capability, and to assist in achieving low-cost reliable products. In a broader sense the manual should do more. It should underscore the urgent need CI for mature attitudes toward reliability. Five of the chapters were originally presented as a classroom course to over 1000 Martin Marietta engineers and technicians. Another four chapters and three appendixes have been added, We begin with a view of reliability from the years 1940 to 2000. Chapter 2 starts the training material with a review of mathematics and a description of what elements contribute to product failures. The remaining chapters elucidate basic reliability theory and the disciplines that allow us to control and eliminate failures.

  6. The Prognostic Value of Perioperative Profiles of ACTH and Cortisol for Recurrence after Transsphenoidal Hypophysectomy in Dogs with Corticotroph Adenomas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rijn, S J; Hanson, J M; Zierikzee, D; Kooistra, H S; Penning, L C; Tryfonidou, M A; Meij, B P

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Transsphenoidal hypophysectomy is an effective treatment for dogs with pituitary-dependent hypercortisolism (PDH). However, long-term recurrence of hypercortisolism is a well-recognized problem, indicating the need for reliable prognostic indicators. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was

  7. A risk-informed approach of quantification of epistemic uncertainty for the long-term radioactive waste disposal. Improving reliability of expert judgements with an advanced elicitation procedure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, Daisuke; Chida, Taiji; Fujita, Tomonari; Tsukamoto, Masaki

    2011-01-01

    A quantification methodology of epistemic uncertainty by expert judgement based on the risk-informed approach is developed to assess inevitable uncertainty for the long-term safety assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The proposed method in this study employs techniques of logic tree, by which options of models and/or scenarios are identified, and Evidential Support Logic (ESL), by which possibility of each option is quantified. In this report, the effect of a feedback process of discussion between experts and input of state-of-the-art knowledge in the proposed method is discussed to estimate alteration of the distribution of expert judgements which is one of the factors causing uncertainty. In a preliminary quantification experiment of uncertainty of degradation of the engineering barrier materials in a tentative sub-surface disposal using the proposed methodology, experts themselves modified questions appropriately to facilitate sound judgements and to correlate those with scientific evidences clearly. The result suggests that the method effectively improves confidence of expert judgement. Also, the degree of consensus of expert judgement was sort of improved in some cases, since scientific knowledge and information of expert judgement in other fields became common understanding. It is suggested that the proposed method could facilitate consensus on uncertainty between interested persons. (author)

  8. Quality of life data as prognostic indicators of survival in cancer patients: an overview of the literature from 1982 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montazeri Ali

    2009-12-01

    data appeared to provide the most reliable information for helping clinicians to establish prognostic criteria for treating their cancer patients. It is recommended that future studies should use valid instruments, apply sound methodological approaches and adequate multivariate statistical analyses adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics and known clinical prognostic factors with a satisfactory validation strategy. This strategy is likely to yield more accurate and specific quality of life-related prognostic variables for specific cancers.

  9. A prognostic model for soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities and trunk wall based on size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and growth pattern

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carneiro, Ana; Bendahl, Par-Ola; Engellau, Jacob

    2011-01-01

    type, necrosis, and grade. METHODS:: Whole-tumor sections from 239 soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities were reviewed for the following prognostic factors: size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and growth pattern. A new prognostic model, referred to as SING (Size, Invasion, Necrosis, Growth......), was established and compared with other clinically applied systems. RESULTS:: Size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and peripheral tumor growth pattern provided independent prognostic information with hazard ratios of 2.2-2.6 for development of metastases in multivariate analysis. When these factors were combined...... into the prognostic model SING, high risk of metastasis was predicted with a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 85%. Moreover, the prognostic performance of SING compared favorably with other widely used systems. CONCLUSIONS:: SING represents a promising prognostic model, and vascular invasion and tumor growth...

  10. Psychometric properties of the 25-item Work Limitations Questionnaire in Japan: factor structure, validity, and reliability in information and communication technology company employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kono, Yuko; Matsushima, Eisuke; Uji, Masayo

    2014-02-01

    The 25-item Work Limitations Questionnaire (WLQ-25) measures presenteeism but has not been sufficiently validated in a Japanese population. A total of 451 employees from four information technology companies in Tokyo completed the WLQ-25 and questionnaires of other variables on two occasions, 2 weeks apart. The WLQ-25 yielded a two-factor structure: Cognitive Demand and Physical Demand. These subscales showed good internal consistency, and both were associated with adverse working conditions, greater perceived job strain, lower skill use, poorer workplace social support, and less satisfactory psychological adjustment. Intraclass correlation coefficients of the two WLQ-25 subscales between time 1 and time 2 were 0.78 and 0.55, respectively. This study suggests acceptable psychometric properties of the WLQ-25 in Japan.

  11. Informe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egon Lichetenberger

    1950-10-01

    Full Text Available Informe del doctor Egon Lichetenberger ante el Consejo Directivo de la Facultad, sobre el  curso de especialización en Anatomía Patológica patrocinado por la Kellogg Foundation (Departamento de Patología

  12. Suncor maintenance and reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Little, S. [Suncor Energy, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Fleet maintenance and reliability at Suncor Energy was discussed in this presentation, with reference to Suncor Energy's primary and support equipment fleets. This paper also discussed Suncor Energy's maintenance and reliability standard involving people, processes and technology. An organizational maturity chart that graphed organizational learning against organizational performance was illustrated. The presentation also reviewed the maintenance and reliability framework; maintenance reliability model; the process overview of the maintenance and reliability standard; a process flow chart of maintenance strategies and programs; and an asset reliability improvement process flow chart. An example of an improvement initiative was included, with reference to a shovel reliability review; a dipper trip reliability investigation; bucket related failures by type and frequency; root cause analysis of the reliability process; and additional actions taken. Last, the presentation provided a graph of the results of the improvement initiative and presented the key lessons learned. tabs., figs.

  13. Prognostics and Life Beyond 60 for Nuclear Power Plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leonard J. Bond; Pradeep Ramuhalli; Magdy S. Tawfik; Nancy J. Lybeck

    2011-06-01

    Safe, secure, reliable and sustainable energy supply is vital for advanced and industrialized life styles. To meet growing energy demand there is interest in longer term operation (LTO) for the existing nuclear power plant fleet and enhancing capabilities in new build. There is increasing use of condition based maintenance (CBM) for active components and periodic in service inspection (ISI) for passive systems: there is growing interest in deploying on-line monitoring. Opportunities exist to move beyond monitoring and diagnosis based on pattern recognition and anomaly detection to and prognostics with the ability to provide an estimate of remaining useful life (RUL). The adoption of digital I&C systems provides a framework within which added functionality including on-line monitoring can be deployed, and used to maintain and even potentially enhance safety, while at the same time improving planning and reducing both operations and maintenance costs.

  14. A probabilistic physics-of-failure model for prognostic health management of structures subject to pitting and corrosion-fatigue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chookah, M.; Nuhi, M.; Modarres, M.

    2011-01-01

    A combined probabilistic physics-of-failure-based model for pitting and corrosion-fatigue degradation mechanisms is proposed to estimate the reliability of structures and to perform prognosis and health management. A mechanistic superposition model for corrosion-fatigue mechanism was used as a benchmark model to propose the simple model. The proposed model describes the degradation of the structures as a function of physical and critical environmental stresses, such as amplitude and frequency of mechanical loads (for example caused by the internal piping pressure) and the concentration of corrosive chemical agents. The parameters of the proposed model are represented by the probability density functions and estimated through a Bayesian approach based on the data taken from the experiments performed as part of this research. For demonstrating applications, the proposed model provides prognostic information about the reliability of aging of structures and is helpful in developing inspection and replacement strategies. - Highlights: ► We model an inventory system under static–dynamic uncertainty strategy. ► The demand is stochastic and non-stationary. ► The optimal ordering policy is proven to be a base stock policy. ► A solution algorithm for finding an optimal solution is provided. ► Two heuristics developed produce high quality solutions and scale-up efficiently.

  15. Fuel reliability experience in Finland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kekkonen, L.

    2015-01-01

    Four nuclear reactors have operated in Finland now for 35-38 years. The two VVER-440 units at Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant are operated by Fortum and two BWR’s in Olkiluoto are operated by Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO). The fuel reliability experience of the four reactors operating currently in Finland has been very good and the fuel failure rates have been very low. Systematic inspection of spent fuel assemblies, and especially all failed assemblies, is a good practice that is employed in Finland in order to improve fuel reliability and operational safety. Investigation of the root cause of fuel failures is important in developing ways to prevent similar failures in the future. The operational and fuel reliability experience at the Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant has been reported also earlier in the international seminars on WWER Fuel Performance, Modelling and Experimental Support. In this paper the information on fuel reliability experience at Loviisa NPP is updated and also a short summary of the fuel reliability experience at Olkiluoto NPP is given. Keywords: VVER-440, fuel reliability, operational experience, poolside inspections, fuel failure identification. (author)

  16. Mode of detection: an independent prognostic factor for women with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofvind, Solveig; Holen, Åsne; Román, Marta; Sebuødegård, Sofie; Puig-Vives, Montse; Akslen, Lars

    2016-06-01

    To investigate breast cancer survival and risk of breast cancer death by detection mode (screen-detected, interval, and detected outside the screening programme), adjusting for prognostic and predictive tumour characteristics. Information about detection mode, prognostic (age, tumour size, histologic grade, lymph node status) and predictive factors (molecular subtypes based on immunohistochemical analyses of hormone receptor status (estrogen and progesterone) and Her2 status) were available for 8344 women in Norway aged 50-69 at diagnosis of breast cancer, 2005-2011. A total of 255 breast cancer deaths were registered by the end of 2011. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate six years breast cancer specific survival and Cox proportional hazard model to estimate hazard ratio (HR) for breast cancer death by detection mode, adjusting for prognostic and predictive factors. Women with screen-detected cancer had favourable prognostic and predictive tumour characteristics compared with interval cancers and those detected outside the screening programme. The favourable characteristics were present for screen-detected cancers, also within the subtypes. Adjusted HR of dying from breast cancer was two times higher for women with symptomatic breast cancer (interval or outside the screening), using screen-detected tumours as the reference. Detection mode is an independent prognostic factor for women diagnosed with breast cancer. Information on detection mode might be relevant for patient management to avoid overtreatment. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Acute imaging does not improve ASTRAL score's accuracy despite having a prognostic value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntaios, George; Papavasileiou, Vasileios; Faouzi, Mohamed; Vanacker, Peter; Wintermark, Max; Michel, Patrik

    2014-10-01

    The ASTRAL score was recently shown to reliably predict three-month functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. The study aims to investigate whether information from multimodal imaging increases ASTRAL score's accuracy. All patients registered in the ASTRAL registry until March 2011 were included. In multivariate logistic-regression analyses, we added covariates derived from parenchymal, vascular, and perfusion imaging to the 6-parameter model of the ASTRAL score. If a specific imaging covariate remained an independent predictor of three-month modified Rankin score>2, the area-under-the-curve (AUC) of this new model was calculated and compared with ASTRAL score's AUC. We also performed similar logistic regression analyses in arbitrarily chosen patient subgroups. When added to the ASTRAL score, the following covariates on admission computed tomography/magnetic resonance imaging-based multimodal imaging were not significant predictors of outcome: any stroke-related acute lesion, any nonstroke-related lesions, chronic/subacute stroke, leukoaraiosis, significant arterial pathology in ischemic territory on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler, significant intracranial arterial pathology in ischemic territory, and focal hypoperfusion on perfusion-computed tomography. The Alberta Stroke Program Early CT score on plain imaging and any significant extracranial arterial pathology on computed tomography angiography/magnetic resonance angiography/Doppler were independent predictors of outcome (odds ratio: 0·93, 95% CI: 0·87-0·99 and odds ratio: 1·49, 95% CI: 1·08-2·05, respectively) but did not increase ASTRAL score's AUC (0·849 vs. 0·850, and 0·8563 vs. 0·8564, respectively). In exploratory analyses in subgroups of different prognosis, age or stroke severity, no covariate was found to increase ASTRAL score's AUC, either. The addition of information derived from multimodal imaging does not increase ASTRAL score

  18. Identification of prognostic factors in patients with brain metastases: a review of 1292 patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Levendag, Peter C.; Nowak, Peter J.C.M.; Eijkenboom, Wilhelmina M.H.; Hanssens, Patrick E.J.; Schmitz, Paul I.M.

    1999-01-01

    Purpose: Prognostic factors in 1292 patients with brain metastases, treated in a single institution were identified in order to determine subgroups of patients suitable for selection in future trials. Materials and Methods: From January 1981 through December 1990, 1292 patients with CT-diagnosed brain metastases were referred to the Department of Radiation Oncology, Daniel den Hoed Cancer Center, Rotterdam. The majority of patients were treated with whole brain radiotherapy (84%), the remainder were treated with steroids only or surgery and radiotherapy. Information on potential prognostic factors (age, sex, performance status, number and distribution of brain metastases, site of primary tumor, histology, interval between primary tumor and brain metastases, systemic tumor activity, serum lactate dehydrogenase, response to steroid treatment, and treatment modality) was collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine significant prognostic factors. Results were compared with literature findings using a review of prognostic factors in 18 published reports. Results: Overall median survival was 3.4 months, with 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year survival percentages of 36%, 12%, and 4% respectively. Survival was statistically significantly different between treatment modalities, with median survival of 1.3 months in patients treated with steroids only, 3.6 months in patients treated with radiotherapy, and 8.9 months in patients treated with neurosurgery followed by radiotherapy (p < 0.0001). Multivariate analysis confirmed literature findings of the major prognostic value of treatment modality on survival of patients with brain metastases. Performance status, response to steroid treatment, systemic tumor activity, and serum lactate dehydrogenase were independent prognostic factors with the strongest impact on survival, second only to treatment modality. Site of primary tumor, age, and number of brain metastases were also identified as prognostic

  19. Prognostic factors of whiplash-associated disorders: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G M; Verhagen, Arianne P; Bekkering, Geertruida E; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Barnsley, Les; Oostendorp, Rob A B; Hendriks, Erik J M

    2003-07-01

    .g. restricted range of motion, high number of complaints), psychosocial (previous psychological problems), neuropsychosocial factors (nervousness), crash related (e.g. accident on highway) and treatment related factors (need to resume physiotherapy) showed limited prognostic value for functional recovery. High initial pain intensity is an important predictor for delayed functional recovery for patients with whiplash injury. Often mentioned factors like age, gender and compensation do not seem to be of prognostic value. Scientific information about prognostic factors can guide physicians or other care providers to direct treatment and to probably prevent chronicity.

  20. Prognostic value of metabolic indices and bone marrow uptake pattern on preoperative 18F-FDG PET/CT in pediatric patients with neuroblastoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Chao; Chen, Suyun; Huang, Shuo; Wu, Shuqi; Zhang, Linlin; Zhang, Fengxian; Wang, Hui [Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai (China); Zhang, Jian [Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Xinhua Hospital, Shanghai (China); Shanghai Universal Medical Imaging Diagnostic Center, Shanghai (China)

    2018-02-15

    To evaluate the prognostic value of metabolic parameters and bone marrow uptake (BMU) patterns on pretherapeutic 18-F-fluorodeoxyglucose (18F-FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in pediatric patients with neuroblastoma (NB). Forty-seven pediatric patients with newly diagnosed neuroblastoma who underwent 18F-FDG PET/CT were retrospectively reviewed. Clinicopathological factors and metabolic parameters including maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), metabolic tumor volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG) and bone marrow uptake patterns on PET/CT were compared to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) by univariate and multivariate analysis. During the follow-up period, 27 (57.4%) patients experienced recurrence. MTV (P = 0.001), TLG (P = 0.004) and BMU patterns (P = 0.025) remained significant predictive factors for tumor recurrence, along with tumor size, histology, stage, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and other distant metastasis (except bone metastasis). Univariate analysis showed that histology, stage, tumor size (>37.25 cm), other distant metastasis, MTV (>88.10cm{sup 3}) and TLG (>1045.2 g) and BMU patterns correlated with both RFS and OS (P < 0.05). On multivariate analysis, TLG remained the only independent prognostic factor for RFS (P = 0.016) and OS (P = 0.012), and BMU patterns and MTV were statistically significant for OS (P = 0.024 and P = 0.038, respectively). Pretherapeutic 18F-FDG PET/CT can provide reliable prognostic information for neuroblastoma pediatric patients, and patients with high MTV, TLG and focal bone marrow (unifocal and multifocal) uptake on PET/CT may have inferior outcomes during subsequent treatment. (orig.)

  1. Human Reliability Program Overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bodin, Michael

    2012-09-25

    This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.

  2. Reliability of software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kopetz, H.

    1980-01-01

    Common factors and differences in the reliability of hardware and software; reliability increase by means of methods of software redundancy. Maintenance of software for long term operating behavior. (HP) [de

  3. Prognostic DNA Methylation Markers for Prostate Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siri H. Strand

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Prostate cancer (PC is the most commonly diagnosed neoplasm and the third most common cause of cancer-related death amongst men in the Western world. PC is a clinically highly heterogeneous disease, and distinction between aggressive and indolent disease is a major challenge for the management of PC. Currently, no biomarkers or prognostic tools are able to accurately predict tumor progression at the time of diagnosis. Thus, improved biomarkers for PC prognosis are urgently needed. This review focuses on the prognostic potential of DNA methylation biomarkers for PC. Epigenetic changes are hallmarks of PC and associated with malignant initiation as well as tumor progression. Moreover, DNA methylation is the most frequently studied epigenetic alteration in PC, and the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers for PC has been demonstrated in multiple studies. The most promising methylation marker candidates identified so far include PITX2, C1orf114 (CCDC181 and the GABRE~miR-452~miR-224 locus, in addition to the three-gene signature AOX1/C1orf114/HAPLN3. Several other biomarker candidates have also been investigated, but with less stringent clinical validation and/or conflicting evidence regarding their possible prognostic value available at this time. Here, we review the current evidence for the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers in PC.

  4. Canine Distemper Virus Antigen Detection in External Epithelia of Recently Vaccinated, Sick Dogs by Fluorescence Microscopy Is a Valuable Prognostic Indicator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neel, Tina

    2014-01-01

    Currently, there are no reliable predictors of the clinical outcomes of domesticated dogs that have been recently vaccinated against canine distemper virus (CDV) and develop respiratory disease. In this study, vaccinated dogs from Oklahoma City that were showing clinical signs of respiratory disease were evaluated for CDV antigen using a direct fluorescent antibody test (FAT). Clinical outcomes after standard symptomatic therapy for respiratory disease were recorded, and a statistical analysis of the results was performed. We present our study showing that CDV FAT results were predictive of clinical recovery (prognostic indicator, prospects of clinical recovery) among vaccinated dogs showing clinical signs of respiratory disease. Negative CDV FAT results equated to 80% chances of recovery after symptomatic therapy, compared to 55% chances of recovery when the CDV FAT results were positive. Based on the results of this study, we show that veterinarians can make better informed decisions about the clinical outcomes of suspected CDV cases, with 2-h turnaround times, by using the CDV FAT. Thus, antemortem examination with the CDV FAT on external epithelia of recently vaccinated, sick dogs is a clinically useful diagnostic test and valuable prognostic indicator for veterinarians. Application of the CDV FAT to these samples avoids unnecessary euthanasia of dogs with suspected CDV. PMID:25428156

  5. Canine distemper virus antigen detection in external epithelia of recently vaccinated, sick dogs by fluorescence microscopy is a valuable prognostic indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapil, Sanjay; Neel, Tina

    2015-02-01

    Currently, there are no reliable predictors of the clinical outcomes of domesticated dogs that have been recently vaccinated against canine distemper virus (CDV) and develop respiratory disease. In this study, vaccinated dogs from Oklahoma City that were showing clinical signs of respiratory disease were evaluated for CDV antigen using a direct fluorescent antibody test (FAT). Clinical outcomes after standard symptomatic therapy for respiratory disease were recorded, and a statistical analysis of the results was performed. We present our study showing that CDV FAT results were predictive of clinical recovery (prognostic indicator, prospects of clinical recovery) among vaccinated dogs showing clinical signs of respiratory disease. Negative CDV FAT results equated to 80% chances of recovery after symptomatic therapy, compared to 55% chances of recovery when the CDV FAT results were positive. Based on the results of this study, we show that veterinarians can make better informed decisions about the clinical outcomes of suspected CDV cases, with 2-h turnaround times, by using the CDV FAT. Thus, antemortem examination with the CDV FAT on external epithelia of recently vaccinated, sick dogs is a clinically useful diagnostic test and valuable prognostic indicator for veterinarians. Application of the CDV FAT to these samples avoids unnecessary euthanasia of dogs with suspected CDV. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  6. Reliable Design Versus Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth A.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation focuses on reliability and trust for the users portion of the FPGA design flow. It is assumed that the manufacturer prior to hand-off to the user tests FPGA internal components. The objective is to present the challenges of creating reliable and trusted designs. The following will be addressed: What makes a design vulnerable to functional flaws (reliability) or attackers (trust)? What are the challenges for verifying a reliable design versus a trusted design?

  7. Pocket Handbook on Reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-09-01

    exponencial distributions Weibull distribution, -xtimating reliability, confidence intervals, relia- bility growth, 0. P- curves, Bayesian analysis. 20 A S...introduction for those not familiar with reliability and a good refresher for those who are currently working in the area. LEWIS NERI, CHIEF...includes one or both of the following objectives: a) prediction of the current system reliability, b) projection on the system reliability for someI future

  8. FRELIB, Failure Reliability Index Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parkinson, D.B.; Oestergaard, C.

    1984-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: Calculation of the reliability index given the failure boundary. A linearization point (design point) is found on the failure boundary for a stationary reliability index (min) and a stationary failure probability density function along the failure boundary, provided that the basic variables are normally distributed. 2 - Method of solution: Iteration along the failure boundary which must be specified - together with its partial derivatives with respect to the basic variables - by the user in a subroutine FSUR. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: No distribution information included (first-order-second-moment-method). 20 basic variables (could be extended)

  9. A novel prognostic six-CpG signature in glioblastomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, An-An; Lu, Nan; Etcheverry, Amandine; Aubry, Marc; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill; Zhang, Lu-Hua; Mosser, Jean; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Yu-He; He, Ya-Long

    2018-03-01

    We aimed to identify a clinically useful biomarker using DNA methylation-based information to optimize individual treatment of patients with glioblastoma (GBM). A six-CpG panel was identified by incorporating genome-wide DNA methylation data and clinical information of three distinct discovery sets and was combined using a risk-score model. Different validation sets of GBMs and lower-grade gliomas and different statistical methods were implemented for prognostic evaluation. An integrative analysis of multidimensional TCGA data was performed to molecularly characterize different risk tumors. The six-CpG risk-score signature robustly predicted overall survival (OS) in all discovery and validation cohorts and in a treatment-independent manner. It also predicted progression-free survival (PFS) in available patients. The multimarker epigenetic signature was demonstrated as an independent prognosticator and had better performance than known molecular indicators such as glioma-CpG island methylator phenotype (G-CIMP) and proneural subtype. The defined risk subgroups were molecularly distinct; high-risk tumors were biologically more aggressive with concordant activation of proangiogenic signaling at multimolecular levels. Accordingly, we observed better OS benefits of bevacizumab-contained therapy to high-risk patients in independent sets, supporting its implication in guiding usage of antiangiogenic therapy. Finally, the six-CpG signature refined the risk classification based on G-CIMP and MGMT methylation status. The novel six-CpG signature is a robust and independent prognostic indicator for GBMs and is of promising value to improve personalized management. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Principles of Bridge Reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, Andrzej S.

    The paper gives a brief introduction to the basic principles of structural reliability theory and its application to bridge engineering. Fundamental concepts like failure probability and reliability index are introduced. Ultimate as well as serviceability limit states for bridges are formulated......, and as an example the reliability profile and a sensitivity analyses for a corroded reinforced concrete bridge is shown....

  11. Reliability in engineering '87

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tuma, M.

    1987-01-01

    The participants heard 51 papers dealing with the reliability of engineering products. Two of the papers were incorporated in INIS, namely ''Reliability comparison of two designs of low pressure regeneration of the 1000 MW unit at the Temelin nuclear power plant'' and ''Use of probability analysis of reliability in designing nuclear power facilities.''(J.B.)

  12. A simulation study on estimating biomarker-treatment interaction effects in randomized trials with prognostic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haller, Bernhard; Ulm, Kurt

    2018-02-20

    To individualize treatment decisions based on patient characteristics, identification of an interaction between a biomarker and treatment is necessary. Often such potential interactions are analysed using data from randomized clinical trials intended for comparison of two treatments. Tests of interactions are often lacking statistical power and we investigated if and how a consideration of further prognostic variables can improve power and decrease the bias of estimated biomarker-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes. A simulation study was performed to assess how prognostic factors affect the estimate of the biomarker-treatment interaction for a time-to-event outcome, when different approaches, like ignoring other prognostic factors, including all available covariates or using variable selection strategies, are applied. Different scenarios regarding the proportion of censored observations, the correlation structure between the covariate of interest and further potential prognostic variables, and the strength of the interaction were considered. The simulation study revealed that in a regression model for estimating a biomarker-treatment interaction, the probability of detecting a biomarker-treatment interaction can be increased by including prognostic variables that are associated with the outcome, and that the interaction estimate is biased when relevant prognostic variables are not considered. However, the probability of a false-positive finding increases if too many potential predictors are included or if variable selection is performed inadequately. We recommend undertaking an adequate literature search before data analysis to derive information about potential prognostic variables and to gain power for detecting true interaction effects and pre-specifying analyses to avoid selective reporting and increased false-positive rates.

  13. Building prognostic models for breast cancer patients using clinical variables and hundreds of gene expression signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yufeng

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple breast cancer gene expression profiles have been developed that appear to provide similar abilities to predict outcome and may outperform clinical-pathologic criteria; however, the extent to which seemingly disparate profiles provide additive prognostic information is not known, nor do we know whether prognostic profiles perform equally across clinically defined breast cancer subtypes. We evaluated whether combining the prognostic powers of standard breast cancer clinical variables with a large set of gene expression signatures could improve on our ability to predict patient outcomes. Methods Using clinical-pathological variables and a collection of 323 gene expression "modules", including 115 previously published signatures, we build multivariate Cox proportional hazards models using a dataset of 550 node-negative systemically untreated breast cancer patients. Models predictive of pathological complete response (pCR to neoadjuvant chemotherapy were also built using this approach. Results We identified statistically significant prognostic models for relapse-free survival (RFS at 7 years for the entire population, and for the subgroups of patients with ER-positive, or Luminal tumors. Furthermore, we found that combined models that included both clinical and genomic parameters improved prognostication compared with models with either clinical or genomic variables alone. Finally, we were able to build statistically significant combined models for pathological complete response (pCR predictions for the entire population. Conclusions Integration of gene expression signatures and clinical-pathological factors is an improved method over either variable type alone. Highly prognostic models could be created when using all patients, and for the subset of patients with lymph node-negative and ER-positive breast cancers. Other variables beyond gene expression and clinical-pathological variables, like gene mutation status or DNA

  14. Reliability and optimization of structural systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thoft-Christensen, P.

    1987-01-01

    The proceedings contain 28 papers presented at the 1st working conference. The working conference was organized by the IFIP Working Group 7.5. The proceedings also include 4 papers which were submitted, but for various reasons not presented at the working conference. The working conference was attended by 50 participants from 18 countries. The conference was the first scientific meeting of the new IFIP Working Group 7.5 on 'Reliability and Optimization of Structural Systems'. The purpose of the Working Group 7.5 is to promote modern structural system optimization and reliability theory, to advance international cooperation in the field of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to stimulate research, development and application of structural system optimization and reliability theory, to further the dissemination and exchange of information on reliability and optimization of structural system optimization and reliability theory, and to encourage education in structural system optimization and reliability theory. (orig./HP)

  15. Biological Prognostic Markers in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimíra Vroblová

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL is the most frequent leukemic disease of adults in the Western world. It is remarkable by an extraordinary heterogeneity of clinical course with overall survival ranging from several months to more than 15 years. Classical staging sytems by Rai and Binet, while readily available and useful for initial assessment of prognosis, are not able to determine individual patient’s ongoing clinical course of CLL at the time of diagnosis, especially in early stages. Therefore, newer biological prognostic parameters are currently being clinically evaluated. Mutational status of variable region of immunoglobulin heavy chain genes (IgVH, cytogenetic aberrations, and both intracellular ZAP- 70 and surface CD38 expression are recognized as parameters with established prognostic value. Molecules regulating the process of angiogenesis are also considered as promising markers. The purpose of this review is to summarize in detail the specific role of these prognostic factors in chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

  16. Problematics of Reliability of Road Rollers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stawowiak, Michał; Kuczaj, Mariusz

    2018-06-01

    This article refers to the reliability of road rollers used in a selected roadworks company. Information on the method of road rollers service and how the service affects the reliability of these rollers is presented. Attention was paid to the process of the implemented maintenance plan with regard to the machine's operational time. The reliability of road rollers was analyzed by determining and interpreting readiness coefficients.

  17. Reliable computer systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wear, L L; Pinkert, J R

    1993-11-01

    In this article, we looked at some decisions that apply to the design of reliable computer systems. We began with a discussion of several terms such as testability, then described some systems that call for highly reliable hardware and software. The article concluded with a discussion of methods that can be used to achieve higher reliability in computer systems. Reliability and fault tolerance in computers probably will continue to grow in importance. As more and more systems are computerized, people will want assurances about the reliability of these systems, and their ability to work properly even when sub-systems fail.

  18. Novel approach for evaluation of service reliability for electricity customers

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG; John; N

    2009-01-01

    Understanding reliability value for electricity customer is important to market-based reliability management. This paper proposes a novel approach to evaluate the reliability for electricity customers by using indifference curve between economic compensation for power interruption and service reliability of electricity. Indifference curve is formed by calculating different planning schemes of network expansion for different reliability requirements of customers, which reveals the information about economic values for different reliability levels for electricity customers, so that the reliability based on market supply demand mechanism can be established and economic signals can be provided for reliability management and enhancement.

  19. Reliability Characteristics of Power Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbynek Martinek

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the phenomenon of reliability of power plants. It gives an explanation of the terms connected with this topic as their proper understanding is important for understanding the relations and equations which model the possible real situations. The reliability phenomenon is analysed using both the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The results of our analysis are specific equations giving information about the characteristics of the power plants, the mean time of operations and the probability of failure-free operation. Equations solved for the Weibull distribution respect the failures as well as the actual operating hours. Thanks to our results, we are able to create a model of dynamic reliability for prediction of future states. It can be useful for improving the current situation of the unit as well as for creating the optimal plan of maintenance and thus have an impact on the overall economics of the operation of these power plants.

  20. Reliability assessment based on subjective inferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Zhibo; Zhu Jianshi; Xu Naixin

    2003-01-01

    The reliability information which comes from subjective analysis is often incomplete prior. This information can be generally assumed to exist in the form of either a stated prior mean of R (reliability) or a stated prior credibility interval on R. An efficient approach is developed to determine a complete beta prior distribution from the subjective information according to the principle of maximum entropy, and the the reliability of survival/failure product is assessed via Bayes theorem. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the methods

  1. Prognostic classification with laboratory parameters or imaging techniques in small-cell lung cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Wouter K.; Fidler, Vaclav; Groen, Harry J. M.

    PURPOSE: Our aim in this study was to compare prognostic models based on laboratory tests with a model including imaging information in small-cell lung cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed on 156 consecutive patients. Three existing models based on laboratory tests

  2. A critique of reliability prediction techniques for avionics applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guru Prasad PANDIAN

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Avionics (aeronautics and aerospace industries must rely on components and systems of demonstrated high reliability. For this, handbook-based methods have been traditionally used to design for reliability, develop test plans, and define maintenance requirements and sustainment logistics. However, these methods have been criticized as flawed and leading to inaccurate and misleading results. In its recent report on enhancing defense system reliability, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences has recently discredited these methods, judging the Military Handbook (MIL-HDBK-217 and its progeny as invalid and inaccurate. This paper discusses the issues that arise with the use of handbook-based methods in commercial and military avionics applications. Alternative approaches to reliability design (and its demonstration are also discussed, including similarity analysis, testing, physics-of-failure, and data analytics for prognostics and systems health management.

  3. Validation of Land Cover Products Using Reliability Evaluation Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenzhong Shi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Validation of land cover products is a fundamental task prior to data applications. Current validation schemes and methods are, however, suited only for assessing classification accuracy and disregard the reliability of land cover products. The reliability evaluation of land cover products should be undertaken to provide reliable land cover information. In addition, the lack of high-quality reference data often constrains validation and affects the reliability results of land cover products. This study proposes a validation schema to evaluate the reliability of land cover products, including two methods, namely, result reliability evaluation and process reliability evaluation. Result reliability evaluation computes the reliability of land cover products using seven reliability indicators. Process reliability evaluation analyzes the reliability propagation in the data production process to obtain the reliability of land cover products. Fuzzy fault tree analysis is introduced and improved in the reliability analysis of a data production process. Research results show that the proposed reliability evaluation scheme is reasonable and can be applied to validate land cover products. Through the analysis of the seven indicators of result reliability evaluation, more information on land cover can be obtained for strategic decision-making and planning, compared with traditional accuracy assessment methods. Process reliability evaluation without the need for reference data can facilitate the validation and reflect the change trends of reliabilities to some extent.

  4. PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF CD56 EXPRESSION IN ACUTE LEUKEMIAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. M. Ahmed

    2014-12-01

    Conclusions. CD56 antigenic expression in AML cases represents an adverse prognostic factor. It should be regularly investigated in cases of AML for better prognostic stratification and assessment. KEY WORDS: CD56; leukemia, myeloid; prognosis

  5. Communication Optimizations for a Wireless Distributed Prognostic Framework

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Distributed architecture for prognostics is an essential step in prognostic research in order to enable feasible real-time system health management. Communication...

  6. Distributed Prognostics System Implementation on Wireless Embedded Devices

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Distributed prognostics is the next step in the evolution of prognostic methodologies. It is an important enabling technology for the emerging Condition Based...

  7. A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  8. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  9. Prognostics-Enabled Power Supply for ADAPT Testbed, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop's role is to develop electronic prognostics for sensing power systems in support of NASA/Ames ADAPT testbed. The prognostic enabled power systems from...

  10. Characterization and prognostic implication of 17 chromosome abnormalities in myelodysplastic syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez-Castro, Judit; Marco-Betés, Víctor; Gómez-Arbonés, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Valcarcel, David; Vallespí, Teresa; Costa, Dolors; Nomdedeu, Benet; Jimenez, María José; Granada, Isabel; Grau, Javier; Ardanaz, María T; de la Serna, Javier; Carbonell, Félix; Cervera, José; Sierra, Adriana; Luño, Elisa; Cervero, Carlos J; Falantes, José; Calasanz, María J; González-Porrás, José R; Bailén, Alicia; Amigo, M Luz; Sanz, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc

    2013-07-01

    The prognosis of chromosome 17 (chr17) abnormalities in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) remains unclear. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) includes these abnormalities within the intermediate cytogenetic risk group. This study assessed the impact on overall survival (OS) and risk of acute myeloid leukemia transformation (AMLt) of chr17 abnormalities in 88 patients with primary MDS. We have compared this group with 1346 patients with primary MDS and abnormal karyotype without chr17 involved. The alterations of chr17 should be considered within group of poor prognosis. The different types of alterations of chromosome 17 behave different prognosis. The study confirms the intermediate prognostic impact of the i(17q), as stated in IPSS-R. The results of the study, however, provide valuable new information on the prognostic impact of alterations of chromosome 17 in complex karyotypes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Identification and validation of novel prognostic markers in Renal Cell Carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabjerg, Maj

    2017-10-01

    insights since we could detect currents compatible with KCa3.1 and KCa1.1 in the cell membrane of primary and commercial ccRCC cell lines. Nonetheless, we were not able to show any significant inhibition of cell growth by the selective inhibitors of KCa3.1 and KCa1.1, TRAM-34, RA-2 and Paxilline. In study III our aim was to investigate the prognostic role of 19 genes selected on the basis of an earlier study done by the group. We used Taqman® Low Density Array to perform a quantitative real-time PCR analysis. By selecting an optimal cut-point and correct for overestimation of the p-value, we could identify three genes with impact on prognosis of ccRCC in both univariate and multivariate analysis. High expression of the genes SPP1 and CSNK2A1 (encoding Osteopontin and CK2α respectively) correlated with poor prognosis while high expression of DEFB1 (encoding β-Defensin) correlated with better prognosis. Study IV focused on validating the results obtained in Paper III by investigating the protein expression of CK2α (Protein kinase 2, alpha subunit) in the different subtypes of RCC and oncocytoma. Furthermore, we investigated whether protein expression of CK2α in ccRCC correlated with prognosis. Here we could show, that a positive nuclear staining was a marker of poor prognosis in high-stage ccRCC. Moreover, enzyme activity analysis revealed a higher activity of the protein kinase in tumor tissue of ccRCC than in normal renal cortex. Novel insights were provided in a proliferation study where we investigated the selective inhibitors of CK2α, CX-4945 and E9. CX-4945 was able to inhibit ccRCC cell growth by nearly 50%. All together the studies presented in this thesis add additional information to the ongoing research within identification of novel prognostic markers in ccRCC. We have discovered four new molecular markers, which reliably can predict prognosis at the time of diagnosis. Additionally, we identified CK2α as a novel therapeutic target of ccRCC. The studies

  12. A confiabilidade da informação fornecida pelo indivíduo a respeito de seu posicionamento habitual de língua The reliability of the information provided by the individuals about their habitual tongue position

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Fernanda Rodrigues Cardoso

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: verificar a confiabilidade da informação fornecida por adultos e crianças a respeito do posicionamento habitual de língua. MÉTODOS: foram investigadas 30 crianças e 30 adultos em dois momentos, com diferença mínima de sete e máxima de vinte e um dias. Inicialmente foi realizada a observação do posicionamento habitual de língua. Em seguida, o participante foi questionado a respeito de seu posicionamento habitual. Após a resposta, a língua foi estimulada com uma espátula de madeira, a fim de aumentar a percepção. Posteriormente, questionou-se, novamente, o indivíduo. Em seguida, orientou-se o participante a observar onde sua língua permanece habitualmente na cavidade oral, até o segundo momento da avaliação. Nesta oportunidade, o participante foi questionado a respeito de seu posicionamento habitual de língua. Os dados foram analisados por meio da estatística Kappa. RESULTADOS: não foi possível visualizar o posicionamento habitual de língua em 100% da amostra. Quanto à confiabilidade geral das respostas verificou-se classificação entre discreta e regular. As crianças apresentaram respostas pouco consistentes e bastante diversificadas, já em relação aos adultos, parte apresentou respostas corretas logo no primeiro questionamento e parte somente apresentou respostas confiáveis após estimulação de percepção intra-oral. CONCLUSÕES: a confiabilidade da informação fornecida pelos indivíduos da amostra a respeito de seu posicionamento habitual de língua varia entre discreta e regular, sendo, portanto, baixa, tanto em crianças quanto em adultos. Uma possível estratégia a ser utilizada na prática clínica fonoaudiológica é questionar o paciente quanto ao seu posicionamento lingual após determinado período de observação.PURPOSE: to check the reliability of the information provided by adults and children about the habitual tongue position. METHODS: we investigated 30 children and 30 adults in

  13. Meta-analysis of prognostic factors for amputation following surgical repair of lower extremity vascular trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perkins, Z B; Yet, B; Glasgow, S; Cole, E; Marsh, W; Brohi, K; Rasmussen, T E; Tai, N R M

    2015-04-01

    Lower extremity vascular trauma (LEVT) is a major cause of amputation. A clear understanding of prognostic factors for amputation is important to inform surgical decision-making, patient counselling and risk stratification. The aim was to develop an understanding of prognostic factors for amputation following surgical repair of LEVT. A systematic review was conducted to identify potential prognostic factors. Bayesian meta-analysis was used to calculate an absolute (pooled proportion) and relative (pooled odds ratio, OR) measure of the amputation risk for each factor. Forty-five studies, totalling 3187 discrete LEVT repairs, were included. The overall amputation rate was 10·0 (95 per cent credible interval 7·4 to 13·1) per cent. Significant prognostic factors for secondary amputation included: associated major soft tissue injury (26 versus 8 per cent for no soft tissue injury; OR 5·80), compartment syndrome (28 versus 6 per cent; OR 5·11), multiple arterial injuries (18 versus 9 per cent; OR 4·85), duration of ischaemia exceeding 6 h (24 versus 5 per cent; OR 4·40), associated fracture (14 versus 2 per cent; OR 4·30), mechanism of injury (blast 19 per cent, blunt 16 per cent, penetrating 5 per cent), anatomical site of injury (iliac 18 per cent, popliteal 14 per cent, tibial 10 per cent, femoral 4 per cent), age over 55 years (16 versus 9 per cent; OR 3·03) and sex (men 7 per cent versus women 8 per cent; OR 0·64). Shock and nerve or venous injuries were not significant prognostic factors for secondary amputation. A significant proportion of patients who undergo lower extremity vascular trauma repair will require secondary amputation. This meta-analysis describes significant prognostic factors needed to inform surgical judgement, risk assessment and patient counselling. © 2015 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Risk factors and a prognostic score for survival after autologous stem-cell transplantation for relapsed or refractory Hodgkin lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bröckelmann, P J; Müller, H; Casasnovas, O

    2017-01-01

    study (n = 1045), precise and valid risk prognostication in HL patients undergoing ASCT can be achieved with five easily available clinical RFs. The proposed prognostic score hence allows reliable stratification of patients for innovative therapeutic approaches in clinical practice and future trials...... therapeutic approaches, we investigated a comprehensive set of risk factors (RFs) for survival after ASCT. Methods: In this multinational prognostic multivariable modeling study, 23 potential RFs were retrospectively evaluated in HL patients from nine prospective trials with multivariable Cox proportional...... of potential RFs had significant impact on progression-free survival (PFS) with hazard ratios (HR) ranging from 1.39 to 2.22. The multivariable analysis identified stage IV disease, time to relapse ≤3 months, ECOG performance status ≥1, bulk ≥5 cm and inadequate response to salvage chemotherapy [

  15. Treatment Outcomes from 68Ga-PSMA PET/CT-Informed Salvage Radiation Treatment in Men with Rising PSA After Radical Prostatectomy: Prognostic Value of a Negative PSMA PET.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmett, Louise; van Leeuwen, Pim J; Nandurkar, Rohan; Scheltema, Matthijs J; Cusick, Thomas; Hruby, George; Kneebone, Andrew; Eade, Thomas; Fogarty, Gerald; Jagavkar, Raj; Nguyen, Quoc; Ho, Bao; Joshua, Anthony M; Stricker, Phillip

    2017-12-01

    68 Ga-PSMA (prostate-specific membrane antigen) PET/CT is increasingly used in men with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure after radical prostatectomy (RP) to triage those who will benefit from salvage radiation treatment (SRT). This study examines the value of PSMA-informed SRT in improving treatment outcomes in the context of biochemical failure after RP. Methods: We analyzed men with rising PSA after RP with PSA readings between 0.05 and 1.0 ng/mL, considered eligible for SRT at the time of PSMA. For each patient, clinical and pathologic features as well as scan results, including site of PSMA-positive disease, number of lesions, and a certainty score, were documented. Subsequent management, including SRT, and most recent PSA were recorded using medical records. Treatment response was defined as both PSA ≤ 0.1 ng/mL and >50% reduction in PSA. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for association of clinical variables and treatment response to SRT. Results: One hundred sixty-four men were included. PSMA was positive in 62% ( n = 102/164): 38 of 102 in the prostatic fossa, 41 of 102 in pelvic nodes, and 23 of 102 distantly. Twenty-four patients received androgen-deprivation therapy (ADT) and were excluded for outcomes analysis. In total, 99 of 146 received SRT with a median follow-up after radiation treatment of 10.5 mo (interquartile range, 6-14 mo). Overall treatment response after SRT was 72% ( n = 71/99). Forty-five percent ( n = 27/60) of patients with a negative PSMA underwent SRT whereas 55% (33/60) did not. In men with a negative PSMA who received SRT, 85% ( n = 23/27) demonstrated a treatment response, compared with a further PSA increase in 65% (22/34) in those not treated. In 36 of 99 patients with disease confined to the prostate fossa on PSMA, 81% ( n = 29/36) responded to SRT. In total, 26 of 99 men had nodal disease on PSMA, of whom 61% ( n = 16/26) had treatment response after SRT. On multivariate logistic regression

  16. Evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment of clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Kathleen F; Roth, Jeremy; Zhu, Kehao; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Meisner, Allison; Wilson, Francis Perry; Coca, Steven; Parikh, Chirag R

    2017-12-01

    A potential use of biomarkers is to assist in prognostic enrichment of clinical trials, where only patients at relatively higher risk for an outcome of interest are eligible for the trial. We investigated methods for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment. We identified five key considerations when considering a biomarker and a screening threshold for prognostic enrichment: (1) clinical trial sample size, (2) calendar time to enroll the trial, (3) total patient screening costs and the total per-patient trial costs, (4) generalizability of trial results, and (5) ethical evaluation of trial eligibility criteria. Items (1)-(3) are amenable to quantitative analysis. We developed the Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment at varying levels of screening stringency. We demonstrate that both modestly prognostic and strongly prognostic biomarkers can improve trial metrics using Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool. Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool is available as a webtool at http://prognosticenrichment.com and as a package for the R statistical computing platform. In some clinical settings, even biomarkers with modest prognostic performance can be useful for prognostic enrichment. In addition to the quantitative analysis provided by Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool, investigators must consider the generalizability of trial results and evaluate the ethics of trial eligibility criteria.

  17. Gene expression classification of colon cancer into molecular subtypes: characterization, validation, and prognostic value.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laetitia Marisa

    adjusting for age, sex, stage, and the emerging prognostic classifier Oncotype DX Colon Cancer Assay recurrence score (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1, p = 0.0097. However, a limitation of this study is that information on tumor grade and number of nodes examined was not available.We describe the first, to our knowledge, robust transcriptome-based classification of CC that improves the current disease stratification based on clinicopathological variables and common DNA markers. The biological relevance of these subtypes is illustrated by significant differences in prognosis. This analysis provides possibilities for improving prognostic models and therapeutic strategies. In conclusion, we report a new classification of CC into six molecular subtypes that arise through distinct biological pathways.

  18. Prognostic factors for neckpain in general practice.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoving, J.L.; Vet, H.C.W. de; Twisk, J.W.R.; Devillé, W.L.J.M.; Windt, D. van der; Koes, B.W.; Bouter, L.M.

    2004-01-01

    Prognostic studies on neck pain are scarce and are typically restricted to short-term follow-up only. In this prospective cohort study, indicators of short- and long-term outcomes of neck pain were identified that can easily be measured in general practice. Patients between 18 and 70 years of age,

  19. EVALUATION OF THE PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF THE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives To evaluate the role and prognostic value of the expression of epidermal growth factor receptors (EGFR) in serum and urine for the detection of human bladder cancer. Patients and Methods The study comprised 30 patients with newly diagnosed transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder and 10 normal volunteers ...

  20. Systematic review of renal carcinoma prognostic factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente, D; Trilla, E; Meseguer, A; Planas, J; Placer, J; Celma, A; Salvador, C; Regis, L; Morote, J

    2017-05-01

    The natural history of renal cell carcinoma is heterogeneous. Some scenarios can be found in terms of clinical presentation, clinical evolution or type of recurrence (local/metastatic). The aim of this publication is to analyze the most important prognostic factors published in the literature. A literature review ob published papers was performed using the Pubmed, from first Motzer's classification published in 1999 to 2015, according to PRISMA declaration. Search was done using the following keywords: kidney neoplasm, kidney cancer, renal cell carcinoma, prognostic factors, mortality, survival and disease progression. Papers were classified according to level of evidence, the number of patients included and the type of study performed. The evolution in the knowledge of molecular pathways related to renal oncogenesis and the new targeted therapies has left to remain obsolete the old prognostic models. It's necessary to perform a continuous review to actualize nomograms and to adapt them to the new scenarios. Is necessary to perform a proper external validation of existing prognostic factors using prospective and multicentric studies to add them into the daily urologist clinical practice. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. Prognostic factors in Guillain-Barre syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semra Mungan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Guillain–Barre syndrome (GBS is an immune-mediated disorder of peripheral nerves resulting as acute inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy. GBS has a heterogeneous clinical course and laboratory findings. Acute onset and progressive course, and is usually associated with a good prognosis but some forms have a poor prognosis. Factors that can affect the prognosis of GBS have been investigated in several studies. Assessment of poor prognostic factors of GBS plays a vital role in the management and monitorization of patients. Methods: In this retrospective study of patients admitted to the acute phase of GBS removing clinical and laboratory profiles and was planned to investigate the prognostic factors. Results: Totally 23 patients (Female/male: 16/7 were recruited. Mean age was 47 (range: 17-70 years. Statistically significant poor prognostic factors were advanced age (p=0.042, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (p=0.027 and serum albumin level (p=0.007. Conclusion: Advanced age, increased ESR and decreased albumin levels were found as poor prognostic factors in GBS.

  2. Aggressive fibromatosis - impact of prognostic variables on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective. To determine the impact of prognostic variables on local control in patients with aggressive fibromatosis treated with or without radiation. Materials and methods. Forty-two patients presenting to the combined sarcoma clinic at Johannesburg Hospital with aggressive fibromatosis from 1990 to 2003 were analysed ...

  3. Prognostic Importance of Pretransplant Functional Capacity After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lee W; Devlin, Sean M; Maloy, Molly A; Wood, William A; Tuohy, Sharlynn; Espiritu, Noel; Aquino, Jennifer; Kendig, Tiffany; Michalski, Meghan G; Gyurkocza, Boglarka; Schaffer, Wendy L; Ali, Benzar; Giralt, Sergio; Jakubowski, Ann A

    2015-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic importance of functional capacity in patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) for hematological malignancies. Using a retrospective design, 407 patients completed a 6-minute walk distance (6 MWD) test to assess functional capacity before HCT; 193 (47%) completed a 6 MWD test after hospital discharge. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM) and overall survival (OS) according to the 6 MWD category (interval, 0.44-0.96) for a 6 MWD ≥ 400 m. A 6 MWD of ≥ 400 m provided incremental information on the prediction of NRM with adjustment for age (p = .032) but not KPS alone (p = .062) or adjustment for other prognostic markers (p = .099). A significant association was found between the 6 MWD and OS (p = .027). A 6 MWD of ≥ 400 m provided incremental information on the prediction of OS with adjustment for age (p = .032) but not for other prognostic markers (p > .05 for all). Patients presenting with a pre-HCT 6 MWD of information beyond that of traditional prognostic markers in HCT. The pretransplant 6-minute walk test is a significant univariate predictor of clinical outcomes in hematological patients beyond age but not beyond that of performance status. On this basis, 6-minute walk distance testing should not be considered part of the standard battery of assessments for risk stratification before hematopoietic cell transplantation. ©AlphaMed Press.

  4. Reliability of information on varicella history in preschool children Confiabilidade da informação sobre antecedente de varicela em crianças pré-escolares

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lúcia Ferro Bricks

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To verify how reliable is the information provided by parents about the history of varicella in their children. METHODS: 204 parents of previously healthy children attending two municipal day-care centers of São Paulo city were interviewed between August 2003 and September 2005. A standardized form was filled out with information regarding age, sex, history of varicella and other diseases, drug use and antecedent of immunization, After medical history, physical examination and checking of immunization records, 5 ml of blood were collected for ELISA (in house varicella test. Exclusion criteria were: age less than 1 year or more than 60 months, previous immunization against chickenpox, presence of co-morbidities or recent use of immunosuppressive drugs. Data were filed in a data bank using the Excel 2003 Microsoft Office Program and stored in a PC computer. The exact Fisher test was employed to calculate sensibility, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of history of varicella informed by children's parents. RESULTS: The age of the children varied from 12 to 54 months (median, 26 months; 49 (24% children had positive history of varicella, 155 (76% a negative or doubtful history. The predictive positive and negative values of the information were 90% and 93%, respectively (p = 0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: The degree of reliability of information about history of varicella informed by parents of children attending day care centers was high and useful to establish recommendations on varicella blocking immunization in day-care centers.OBJETIVOS: Verificar o grau de confiabilidade da informação fornecida pelos pais de crianças atendidas em creches sobre o antecedente de varicela. MÉTODOS: Os pais de 204 crianças previamente saudáveis matriculadas em duas creches da cidade de São Paulo foram entrevistados entre Agosto de 2003 e Setembro de 2005 para preenchimento de um questionário padronizado com informações sobre idade

  5. Human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dougherty, E.M.; Fragola, J.R.

    1988-01-01

    The authors present a treatment of human reliability analysis incorporating an introduction to probabilistic risk assessment for nuclear power generating stations. They treat the subject according to the framework established for general systems theory. Draws upon reliability analysis, psychology, human factors engineering, and statistics, integrating elements of these fields within a systems framework. Provides a history of human reliability analysis, and includes examples of the application of the systems approach

  6. Reliability of electronic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roca, Jose L.

    2001-01-01

    Reliability techniques have been developed subsequently as a need of the diverse engineering disciplines, nevertheless they are not few those that think they have been work a lot on reliability before the same word was used in the current context. Military, space and nuclear industries were the first ones that have been involved in this topic, however not only in these environments it is that it has been carried out this small great revolution in benefit of the increase of the reliability figures of the products of those industries, but rather it has extended to the whole industry. The fact of the massive production, characteristic of the current industries, drove four decades ago, to the fall of the reliability of its products, on one hand, because the massively itself and, for other, to the recently discovered and even not stabilized industrial techniques. Industry should be changed according to those two new requirements, creating products of medium complexity and assuring an enough reliability appropriated to production costs and controls. Reliability began to be integral part of the manufactured product. Facing this philosophy, the book describes reliability techniques applied to electronics systems and provides a coherent and rigorous framework for these diverse activities providing a unifying scientific basis for the entire subject. It consists of eight chapters plus a lot of statistical tables and an extensive annotated bibliography. Chapters embrace the following topics: 1- Introduction to Reliability; 2- Basic Mathematical Concepts; 3- Catastrophic Failure Models; 4-Parametric Failure Models; 5- Systems Reliability; 6- Reliability in Design and Project; 7- Reliability Tests; 8- Software Reliability. This book is in Spanish language and has a potentially diverse audience as a text book from academic to industrial courses. (author)

  7. Operational safety reliability research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, R.E.; Boccio, J.L.

    1986-01-01

    Operating reactor events such as the TMI accident and the Salem automatic-trip failures raised the concern that during a plant's operating lifetime the reliability of systems could degrade from the design level that was considered in the licensing process. To address this concern, NRC is sponsoring the Operational Safety Reliability Research project. The objectives of this project are to identify the essential tasks of a reliability program and to evaluate the effectiveness and attributes of such a reliability program applicable to maintaining an acceptable level of safety during the operating lifetime at the plant

  8. Circuit design for reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson

    2015-01-01

    This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units.  The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.

  9. Prognostics 101: A tutorial for particle filter-based prognostics algorithm using Matlab

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Dawn; Choi, Joo-Ho; Kim, Nam Ho

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a Matlab-based tutorial for model-based prognostics, which combines a physical model with observed data to identify model parameters, from which the remaining useful life (RUL) can be predicted. Among many model-based prognostics algorithms, the particle filter is used in this tutorial for parameter estimation of damage or a degradation model. The tutorial is presented using a Matlab script with 62 lines, including detailed explanations. As examples, a battery degradation model and a crack growth model are used to explain the updating process of model parameters, damage progression, and RUL prediction. In order to illustrate the results, the RUL at an arbitrary cycle are predicted in the form of distribution along with the median and 90% prediction interval. This tutorial will be helpful for the beginners in prognostics to understand and use the prognostics method, and we hope it provides a standard of particle filter based prognostics. -- Highlights: ► Matlab-based tutorial for model-based prognostics is presented. ► A battery degradation model and a crack growth model are used as examples. ► The RUL at an arbitrary cycle are predicted using the particle filter

  10. The Biochemical Prognostic Factors of Subclinical Hypothyroidism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myung Won Lee

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundPatients with subclinical hypothyroidism (SHT are common in clinical practice. However, the clinical significance of SHT, including prognosis, has not been established. Further clarifying SHT will be critical in devising a management plan and treatment guidelines for SHT patients. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors of SHT.MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of Korean patients who visited the endocrinology outpatient clinic of Severance Hospital from January 2008 to September 2012. Newly-diagnosed patients with SHT were selected and reviewed retrospectively. We compared two groups: the SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group.ResultsThe SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group had initial thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH levels that were significantly different (P=0.035. In subanalysis for subjects with TSH levels between 5 to 10 µIU/mL, the spontaneous improvement group showed significantly lower antithyroid peroxidase antibody (anti-TPO-Ab titer than the SHT maintenance group (P=0.039. Regarding lipid profiles, only triglyceride level, unlike total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, was related to TSH level, which is correlated with the severity of SHT. Diffuse thyroiditis on ultrasonography only contributed to the severity of SHT, not to the prognosis. High sensitivity C-reactive protein and urine iodine excretion, generally regarded as possible prognostic factors, did not show any significant relation with the prognosis and severity of SHT.ConclusionOnly initial TSH level was a definite prognostic factor of SHT. TPO-Ab titer was also a helpful prognostic factor for SHT in cases with mildly elevated TSH. Other than TSH and TPO-Ab, we were unable to validate biochemical prognostic factors in this retrospective study for Korean SHT patients.

  11. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using prognostic tools and regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghinea, Cristina; Drăgoi, Elena Niculina; Comăniţă, Elena-Diana; Gavrilescu, Marius; Câmpean, Teofil; Curteanu, Silvia; Gavrilescu, Maria

    2016-11-01

    For an adequate planning of waste management systems the accurate forecast of waste generation is an essential step, since various factors can affect waste trends. The application of predictive and prognosis models are useful tools, as reliable support for decision making processes. In this paper some indicators such as: number of residents, population age, urban life expectancy, total municipal solid waste were used as input variables in prognostic models in order to predict the amount of solid waste fractions. We applied Waste Prognostic Tool, regression analysis and time series analysis to forecast municipal solid waste generation and composition by considering the Iasi Romania case study. Regression equations were determined for six solid waste fractions (paper, plastic, metal, glass, biodegradable and other waste). Accuracy Measures were calculated and the results showed that S-curve trend model is the most suitable for municipal solid waste (MSW) prediction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Application of the Sensor Selection Approach in Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cell Prognostics and Health Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Mao

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the sensor selection approach is investigated with the aim of using fewer sensors to provide reliable fuel cell diagnostic and prognostic results. The sensitivity of sensors is firstly calculated with a developed fuel cell model. With sensor sensitivities to different fuel cell failure modes, the available sensors can be ranked. A sensor selection algorithm is used in the analysis, which considers both sensor sensitivity to fuel cell performance and resistance to noise. The performance of the selected sensors in polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM fuel cell prognostics is also evaluated with an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and results show that the fuel cell voltage can be predicted with good quality using the selected sensors. Furthermore, a fuel cell test is performed to investigate the effectiveness of selected sensors in fuel cell fault diagnosis. From the results, different fuel cell states can be distinguished with good quality using the selected sensors.

  13. Assessment of corticosteroid-induced alkaline phosphatase as a prognostic indicator in canine lymphoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedemann, A L; Charney, S C; Barger, A M; Schaeffer, D J; Kitchell, B E

    2005-04-01

    To examine the incidence of elevated corticosteroid-induced alkaline phosphatase (sALP) in dogs with lymphoma and to determine if sALP is a reliable prognostic indicator in canine lymphoma. The medical records of 62 canine lymphoma patients treated with a combination chemotherapy protocol from 1994 to 2003 at the University of Illinois Veterinary Teaching Hospital were examined. Variables assessed with respect to response rate and remission duration included age, bodyweight, sex, breed, World Health Organization stage (I to V), substage (a or b), pretreatment administration of corticosteroid, and serum levels of alkaline phosphatase, sALP and alanine aminotransferase. sALP was not statistically significant with respect to response rate or duration of remission, nor was preinduction glucocorticoid administration. Stage was significant with respect to achieving remission. It was found that sALP is not a useful prognostic indicator for response rate and remission duration in dogs with lymphoma.

  14. Stress testing on silicon carbide electronic devices for prognostics and health management.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaplar, Robert James; Brock, Reinhard C.; Marinella, Matthew; King, Michael Patrick; Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley

    2011-01-01

    Power conversion systems for energy storage and other distributed energy resource applications are among the drivers of the important role that power electronics plays in providing reliable electricity. Wide band gap semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) will help increase the performance and efficiency of power electronic equipment while condition monitoring (CM) and prognostics and health management (PHM) will increase the operational availability of the equipment and thereby make it more cost effective. Voltage and/or temperature stress testing were performed on a number of SiC devices in order to accelerate failure modes and to identify measureable shifts in electrical characteristics which may provide early indication of those failures. Those shifts can be interpreted and modeled to provide prognostic signatures for use in CM and/or PHM. Such experiments will also lead to a deeper understanding of basic device physics and the degradation mechanisms behind failure.

  15. Prognostic indicators for failed nonsurgical reduction of intussusception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khorana J

    2016-08-01

    .34, P=0.023. The prediction ability of this model was 82.21% as assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Conclusion: The identified prognostic factors for the nonsurgical reduction failure may help to predict the reduction outcome and provide information to the parents. Keywords: intussusception, pneumatic reduction, hydrostatic reduction, prognostic indicators, failure rate

  16. PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-12-01

    The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

  17. Reliable design of electronic equipment an engineering guide

    CERN Document Server

    Natarajan, Dhanasekharan

    2014-01-01

    This book explains reliability techniques with examples from electronics design for the benefit of engineers. It presents the application of de-rating, FMEA, overstress analyses and reliability improvement tests for designing reliable electronic equipment. Adequate information is provided for designing computerized reliability database system to support the application of the techniques by designers. Pedantic terms and the associated mathematics of reliability engineering discipline are excluded for the benefit of comprehensiveness and practical applications. This book offers excellent support

  18. Conceptualizing prognostic awareness in advanced cancer: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Applebaum, Allison J; Kolva, Elissa A; Kulikowski, Julia R; Jacobs, Jordana D; DeRosa, Antonio; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Olden, Megan E; Rosenfeld, Barry; Breitbart, William

    2014-09-01

    This systematic review synthesizes the complex literature on prognostic awareness in cancer. A total of 37 studies examining cancer patients' understanding of their prognosis were included. Prognostic awareness definitions and assessment methods were inconsistent across studies. A surprisingly high percentage of patients (up to 75%) were unaware of their poor prognosis, and in several studies, even their cancer diagnosis (up to 96%), particularly in studies conducted outside of North America. This review highlights surprisingly low rates of prognostic awareness in patients with advanced cancer as well as discrepancies in prognostic awareness assessment, suggesting the need for empirically validated measures of prognostic awareness. © The Author(s) 2013.

  19. Radiomic Machine Learning Classifiers for Prognostic Biomarkers of Head & Neck Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chintan eParmar

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Radiomics extracts and mines large number of medical imaging features in a non-invasive and cost-effective way. The underlying assumption of radiomics is that these imaging features quantify phenotypic characteristics of entire tumor. In order to enhance applicability of radiomics in clinical oncology, highly accurate and reliable machine learning approaches are required. In this radiomic study, thirteen feature selection methods and eleven machine learning classification methods were evaluated in terms of their performance and stability for predicting overall survival in head and neck cancer patients. Methods: Two independent head and neck cancer cohorts were investigated. Training cohort HN1 consisted 101 HNSCC patients. Cohort HN2 (n=95 was used for validation. A total of 440 radiomic features were extracted from the segmented tumor regions in CT images. Feature selection and classification methods were compared using an unbiased evaluation framework. Results: We observed that the three feature selection methods MRMR (AUC = 0.69, Stability = 0.66, MIFS (AUC = 0.66, Stability = 0.69, and CIFE (AUC = 0.68, Stability = 0.7 had high prognostic performance and stability. The three classifiers BY (AUC = 0.67, RSD = 11.28, RF (AUC = 0.61, RSD = 7.36, and NN (AUC = 0.62, RSD = 10.52 also showed high prognostic performance and stability. Analysis investigating performance variability indicated that the choice of classification method is the major factor driving the performance variation (29.02% of total variance. Conclusions: Our study identified prognostic and reliable machine learning methods for the prediction of overall survival of head and neck cancer patients. Identification of optimal machine-learning methods for radiomics based prognostic analyses could broaden the scope of radiomics in precision oncology and cancer care.

  20. Prognostic significance of between-arm blood pressure differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agarwal, Rajiv; Bunaye, Zerihun; Bekele, Dagim M

    2008-03-01

    Blood pressure (BP) recordings often differ between arms, but the extent to which these differences are reproducible and whether the differences have prognostic importance is unknown. We enrolled 421 consecutive patients from a medicine and a renal clinic at a veterans' hospital. Three BP recordings were obtained in each arm using an oscillometric device in a sequential manner and repeated in 1 week. Patients were followed for all-cause mortality arm had 5.1-mm Hg higher systolic BP that attenuated by approximately 2.2 mm Hg a week later. Systolic BP dropped 6.9 mm Hg over 1 week and by an additional 5.3 mm Hg in patients with chronic kidney disease. Accounting for the visit and arm effect improved the reproducibility of the BP measurements. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.74, which improved to 0.88 after accounting for visit and 0.93 after accounting for arm. The crude mortality rate was 6.33 per 100 patient-years. Every 10-mm Hg difference in systolic BP between the arms conferred a mortality hazard of 1.24 (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.52) after adjusting for average systolic BP and chronic kidney disease. BP differences between arms are reproducible and carry prognostic information. Patients should have evaluation of BP in both arms at the screening visit.

  1. Diagnostic and prognostic value of peritoneal immunocytology in gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benevolo, M; Mottolese, M; Cosimelli, M; Tedesco, M; Giannarelli, D; Vasselli, S; Carlini, M; Garofalo, A; Natali, P G

    1998-10-01

    Among the clinical factors with a pivotal role in the prediction of outcome for patients with gastric cancer, intraperitoneal (i.p.) microscopic dissemination may represent an important cause of recurrences, even in the early stages of the disease. In this context, the cytologic examination of intraoperative peritoneal washings may be essential to identify metastatic free cells, although a number of false-negative cases may be encountered. To determine whether immunocytochemical (ICC) methods that used a panel of three monoclonal antibodies (MoAbs), B72.3, AR3, and BD5, directed to gastric cancer-associated antigens can improve peritoneal cytology by providing more accurate prognostic indications, we immunocytochemically and morphologically evaluated 144 peritoneal washings sampled from patients surgically treated for gastric cancer. The ICC analysis allowed the identification of metastatic free peritoneal cells in 35% of the patients, with a 14% improvement over routine cytopathology (P < .0001). Furthermore, a 54-month survival analysis by Kaplan-Meier curves showed a statistically significant decrease in overall survival (OS) in patients with stages I through III disease with peritoneal microscopic disease detected morphologically and/or by ICC at the time of the primary surgery. Our data indicate that the use of a combination of selected MoAbs may allow the identification of cytologically false-negative cases that provide valuable prognostic information. This may be useful to stratify patients on more adequate therapeutic trials.

  2. Hawaii Electric System Reliability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loose, Verne William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2012-08-01

    This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

  3. Hawaii electric system reliability.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William

    2012-09-01

    This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

  4. Improving machinery reliability

    CERN Document Server

    Bloch, Heinz P

    1998-01-01

    This totally revised, updated and expanded edition provides proven techniques and procedures that extend machinery life, reduce maintenance costs, and achieve optimum machinery reliability. This essential text clearly describes the reliability improvement and failure avoidance steps practiced by best-of-class process plants in the U.S. and Europe.

  5. LED system reliability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific

  6. Integrated system reliability analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    Specific targets: 1) The report shall describe the state of the art of reliability and risk-based assessment of wind turbine components. 2) Development of methodology for reliability and risk-based assessment of the wind turbine at system level. 3) Describe quantitative and qualitative measures...

  7. Distributed Prognostic Health Management with Gaussian Process Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Sankalita; Saha, Bhaskar; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

    2010-01-01

    Distributed prognostics architecture design is an enabling step for efficient implementation of health management systems. A major challenge encountered in such design is formulation of optimal distributed prognostics algorithms. In this paper. we present a distributed GPR based prognostics algorithm whose target platform is a wireless sensor network. In addition to challenges encountered in a distributed implementation, a wireless network poses constraints on communication patterns, thereby making the problem more challenging. The prognostics application that was used to demonstrate our new algorithms is battery prognostics. In order to present trade-offs within different prognostic approaches, we present comparison with the distributed implementation of a particle filter based prognostics for the same battery data.

  8. Design reliability engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buden, D.; Hunt, R.N.M.

    1989-01-01

    Improved design techniques are needed to achieve high reliability at minimum cost. This is especially true of space systems where lifetimes of many years without maintenance are needed and severe mass limitations exist. Reliability must be designed into these systems from the start. Techniques are now being explored to structure a formal design process that will be more complete and less expensive. The intent is to integrate the best features of design, reliability analysis, and expert systems to design highly reliable systems to meet stressing needs. Taken into account are the large uncertainties that exist in materials, design models, and fabrication techniques. Expert systems are a convenient method to integrate into the design process a complete definition of all elements that should be considered and an opportunity to integrate the design process with reliability, safety, test engineering, maintenance and operator training. 1 fig

  9. Bayesian methods in reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

    1991-11-01

    The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

  10. Glioblastoma treated with postoperative radio-chemotherapy: Prognostic value of apparent diffusion coefficient at MR imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamasaki, Fumiyuki; Sugiyama, Kazuhiko [Department of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 1-2-3 Kasumi, Minami-ku, Hiroshima 734-8551 (Japan); Ohtaki, Megu [Department of Environmetrics and Biometrics, Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima (Japan); Takeshima, Yukio [Department of Pathology, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima (Japan); Abe, Nobukazu; Akiyama, Yuji; Takaba, Junko [Department of Radiology, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima (Japan); Amatya, Vishwa Jeet [Department of Pathology, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima (Japan); Saito, Taiichi; Kajiwara, Yoshinori; Hanaya, Ryosuke [Department of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 1-2-3 Kasumi, Minami-ku, Hiroshima 734-8551 (Japan); Kurisu, Kaoru [Department of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 1-2-3 Kasumi, Minami-ku, Hiroshima 734-8551 (Japan)], E-mail: kuka422@hiroshima-u.ac.jp

    2010-03-15

    Purpose: To retrospectively evaluate whether the mean, minimum, and maximum apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of glioblastomas obtained from pretreatment MR images is of prognostic value in patients with glioblastoma. Materials and methods: The institutional review board approved our study and waived the requirement for informed patient consent. Between February 1998 and January 2006, 33 patients (24 males, 9 females; age range 10-76 years) with supratentorial glioblastoma underwent pretreatment magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. The values of the mean, minimum, and maximum ADC (ADC{sub mean}, ADC{sub MIN}, and ADC{sub MAX}, respectively) of each tumor were preoperatively determined from several regions of interest defined in the tumors. After surgical intervention, all patients underwent irradiation and chemotherapy performed according to our hospital protocol. The patient age, symptom duration, Karnofsky performance scale score, extent of surgery, and ADC were assessed using factor analysis of overall survival. Prognostic factors were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves, the log-rank test, and multiple regression analysis with the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Likelihood ratio tests confirmed that ADC{sub MIN} was the strongest among the three prognostic factors. Total surgical removal was the most important predictive factor for overall survival (P < 0.01). ADC{sub MIN} was also statistically correlated with overall survival (P < 0.05) and could be used to classify patients into different prognostic groups. Interestingly, ADC{sub MIN} was also the strongest prognostic factor (P < 0.01) in the group of patients in whom total tumor removal was not possible. Conclusion: The ADC{sub MIN} value obtained from pretreatment MR images is a useful clinical prognostic biomarker in patients with glioblastoma.

  11. Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Rosswog

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. METHODS: A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n = 75 for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n = 411 for risk score development, and a validation set (n = 209. Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. RESULTS: The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9 ± 3.4 vs 63.6 ± 14.5 vs 31.0 ± 5.4; P < .001, and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. CONCLUSION: We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients.

  12. Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

    2017-12-01

    Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Prognostic factors in canine appendicular osteosarcoma – a meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Appendicular osteosarcoma is the most common malignant primary canine bone tumor. When treated by amputation or tumor removal alone, median survival times (MST) do not exceed 5 months, with the majority of dogs suffering from metastatic disease. This period can be extended with adequate local intervention and adjuvant chemotherapy, which has become common practice. Several prognostic factors have been reported in many different studies, e.g. age, breed, weight, sex, neuter status, location of tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP), bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP), infection, percentage of bone length affected, histological grade or histological subtype of tumor. Most of these factors are, however, only reported as confounding factors in larger studies. Insight in truly significant prognostic factors at time of diagnosis may contribute to tailoring adjuvant therapy for individual dogs suffering from osteosarcoma. The objective of this study was to systematically review the prognostic factors that are described for canine appendicular osteosarcoma and validate their scientific importance. Results A literature review was performed on selected studies and eligible data were extracted. Meta-analyses were done for two of the three selected possible prognostic factors (SALP and location), looking at both survival time (ST) and disease free interval (DFI). The third factor (age) was studied in a qualitative manner. Both elevated SALP level and the (proximal) humerus as location of the primary tumor are significant negative prognostic factors for both ST and DFI in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma. Increasing age was associated with shorter ST and DFI, however, was not statistically significant because information of this factor was available in only a limited number of papers. Conclusions Elevated SALP and proximal humeral location are significant negative prognosticators for canine osteosarcoma. PMID:22587466

  14. Prognostic factors in canine appendicular osteosarcoma – a meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boerman Ilse

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Appendicular osteosarcoma is the most common malignant primary canine bone tumor. When treated by amputation or tumor removal alone, median survival times (MST do not exceed 5 months, with the majority of dogs suffering from metastatic disease. This period can be extended with adequate local intervention and adjuvant chemotherapy, which has become common practice. Several prognostic factors have been reported in many different studies, e.g. age, breed, weight, sex, neuter status, location of tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP, bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP, infection, percentage of bone length affected, histological grade or histological subtype of tumor. Most of these factors are, however, only reported as confounding factors in larger studies. Insight in truly significant prognostic factors at time of diagnosis may contribute to tailoring adjuvant therapy for individual dogs suffering from osteosarcoma. The objective of this study was to systematically review the prognostic factors that are described for canine appendicular osteosarcoma and validate their scientific importance. Results A literature review was performed on selected studies and eligible data were extracted. Meta-analyses were done for two of the three selected possible prognostic factors (SALP and location, looking at both survival time (ST and disease free interval (DFI. The third factor (age was studied in a qualitative manner. Both elevated SALP level and the (proximal humerus as location of the primary tumor are significant negative prognostic factors for both ST and DFI in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma. Increasing age was associated with shorter ST and DFI, however, was not statistically significant because information of this factor was available in only a limited number of papers. Conclusions Elevated SALP and proximal humeral location are significant negative prognosticators for canine osteosarcoma.

  15. Prognostic classification of MDS is improved by the inclusion of FISH panel testing with conventional cytogenetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kokate, Prajakta; Dalvi, Rupa; Koppaka, Neeraja; Mandava, Swarna

    2017-10-01

    Cytogenetics is a critical independent prognostic factor in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Conventional cytogenetics (CC) and Fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) Panel Testing are extensively used for the prognostic stratification of MDS, although the FISH test is not yet a bona fide component of the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS). The present study compares the utility of CC and FISH to detect chromosomal anomalies and in prognostic categorization. GTG-Banding and FISH Panel Testing specifically for -5/-5q, -7/-7q, +8 and -20q was performed on whole blood or bone marrow samples from 136 patients with MDS. Chromosomal anomalies were found in 40 cases by CC, including three novel translocations. FISH identified at least one anomaly in 54/136 (39.7%) cases. More than one anomaly was found in 18/54 (33.3%) cases, therefore, overall FISH identified 75 anomalies of which 32 (42.6%) were undetected by CC. FISH provided additional information in cases with CC failure and in cases with a normal karyotype. Further, in ten cases with an abnormal karyotype, FISH could identify additional anomalies, increasing the number of abnormalities per patient. Although CC is the gold standard in the cytogenetic profiling of MDS, FISH has proven to be an asset in identifying additional abnormalities. The number of anomalies per patient can predict the prognosis in MDS and hence, FISH contributed towards prognostic re-categorization. The FISH Panel testing should be used as an adjunct to CC, irrespective of the adequacy of the number of metaphases in CC, as it improves the prognostic classification of MDS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. RELIABILITY OF KINEMATICS AND KINETICS ASSOCIATED WITH HORIZONTAL SINGLE LEG DROP JUMP ASSESSMENT. A BRIEF REPORT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus Stålbom

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Determining the reliability of a unilateral horizontal drop jump for displacement provided the focus for this research. Eighteen male subjects were required to step off a 20cm box and land on a force plate with one leg and thereafter jump for maximal horizontal displacement on two different days. Dependent variables from the jump assessment included mean and peak vertical (V and horizontal (H ground reaction forces (GRF and impulses, horizontal displacement and contact time. The between-trial variability of all kinematic and kinetic measures was less than 7%. The most consistent measure over both trials was the horizontal displacement jumped (1.2 to 1.4% and the most variable were the contact time the first day (6.5% and peak HGRF the second day (4.3%. In all cases there was less variation associated with the second rather than the first day. In terms of test-retest variability the percent changes in the means and coefficient of variations (CVs were all under 10%. The smallest changes in the mean (0.43 %, least variation (< 2.26 % and second highest intraclass correlation co-efficient (ICC = 0.95 were found for horizontal displacement jumped. The highest ICC (0.96 was found for horizontal impulse. Given the reliability of the single leg drop jump, it may offer better prognostic and diagnostic information than that obtained with bilateral vertical jumps

  17. Prognostic accuracy of antenatal neonatology consultation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukora, S; Gollehon, N; Weiner, G; Laventhal, N

    2017-01-01

    Neonatologists provide antenatal counseling to support shared decision-making for complicated pregnancies. Poor or ambiguous prognostication can lead to inappropriate treatment and parental distress. We sought to evaluate the accuracy of antenatal prognosticaltion. A retrospective cohort was assembled from a prospectively populated database of all outpatient neonatology consultations. On the basis of the written consultation, fetuses were characterized by diagnosis groups (multiple anomalies or genetic disorders, single major anomaly and obstetric complications), assigned to five prognostic categories (I=survivable, IIA=uncertain but likely survivable, II=uncertain, IIB=uncertain but likely non-survivable, III non-survivable) and two final outcome categories (fetal demise/in-hospital neonatal death or survival to hospital discharge). When possible, status at last follow-up was recorded for those discharged from the hospital. Prognostic accuracy was assessed using unweighted, multi-level likelihood ratios (LRs). The final cohort included 143 fetuses/infants distributed nearly evenly among the three diagnosis groups. Over half (64%) were assigned an uncertain prognosis, but most of these could be divided into 'likely survivable' or 'likely non-survivable' subgroups. Overall survival for the entire cohort was 62% (89/143). All but one of the fetuses assigned a non-survivable prognosis suffered fetal demise or died before hospital discharge. The neonatologist's antenatal prognosis accurately predicted the probability of survival by prognosis group (LR I=4.56, LR IIA=10.53, LR II=4.71, LR IIB=0.099, LR III=0.040). The LRs clearly differentiated between fetuses with high and low probability of survival. Eleven fetuses (7.7%) had misalignment between the predicted prognosis and outcome. Five died before discharge despite being given category I or IIA prognoses, whereas six infants with category IIB or III prognoses survived to discharge, though some of these were

  18. Multistream sensor fusion-based prognostics model for systems with single failure modes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, Xiaolei; Paynabar, Kamran; Gebraeel, Nagi

    2017-01-01

    Advances in sensor technology have facilitated the capability of monitoring the degradation of complex engineering systems through the analysis of multistream degradation signals. However, the varying levels of correlation with physical degradation process for different sensors, high-dimensionality of the degradation signals and cross-correlation among different signal streams pose significant challenges in monitoring and prognostics of such systems. To address the foregoing challenges, we develop a three-step multi-sensor prognostic methodology that utilizes multistream signals to predict residual useful lifetimes of partially degraded systems. We first identify the informative sensors via the penalized (log)-location-scale regression. Then, we fuse the degradation signals of the informative sensors using multivariate functional principal component analysis, which is capable of modeling the cross-correlation of signal streams. Finally, the third step focuses on utilizing the fused signal features for prognostics via adaptive penalized (log)-location-scale regression. We validate our multi-sensor prognostic methodology using simulation study as well as a case study of aircraft turbofan engines available from NASA repository.

  19. Histology-Based Expression Profiling Yields Novel Prognostic Markers in Human Glioblastoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Shumin; Nutt, Catherine L.; Betensky, Rebecca A.; Stemmer-Rachamimov, Anat O.; Denko, Nicholas C.; Ligon, Keith L.; Rowitch, David H.; Louis, David N.

    2006-01-01

    Although the prognosis for patients with glioblastoma is poor, survival is variable, with some patients surviving longer than others. For this reason, there has been longstanding interest in the identi-fication of prognostic markers for glioblastoma. We hypothesized that specific histologic features known to correlate with malignancy most likely express molecules that are directly related to the aggressive behavior of these tumors. We further hypothesized that such molecules could be used as biomarkers to predict behavior in a manner that might add prognostic power to sole histologic observation of the feature. We reasoned that perinecrotic tumor cell palisading, which denotes the most aggressive forms of malignant gliomas, would be a striking histologic feature on which to test this hypothesis. We therefore used laser capture microdissection and oligonucleotide arrays to detect molecules differentially expressed in perinecrotic palisades. A set of RNAs (including POFUT2, PTDSR, PLOD2, ATF5, and HK2) that were differentially expressed in 3 initially studied, micro-dissected glioblastomas also provided prognostic information in an independent set of 28 glioblastomas that did not all have perinecrotic palisades. On validation in a second, larger independent series, this approach could be applied to other human glioma types to derive tissue biomarkers that could offer ancillary prognostic and predictive information alongside standard histopathologic examination. PMID:16254489

  20. Prognostic value of baseline seric Syndecan-1 in initially unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer patients: a simple biological score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jary, Marine; Lecomte, Thierry; Bouché, Olivier; Kim, Stefano; Dobi, Erion; Queiroz, Lise; Ghiringhelli, Francois; Etienne, Hélène; Léger, Julie; Godet, Yann; Balland, Jérémy; Lakkis, Zaher; Adotevi, Olivier; Bonnetain, Franck; Borg, Christophe; Vernerey, Dewi

    2016-11-15

    In first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), baseline prognostic factors allowing death risk and treatment strategy stratification are lacking. Syndecan-1 (CD138) soluble form was never described as a prognostic biomarker in mCRC. We investigated its additional prognostic value for overall survival (OS). mCRC patients with unresectable disease at diagnosis were treated with bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in two independent prospective clinical trials (development set: n = 126, validation set: n = 51, study NCT00489697 and study NCT00544011, respectively). Serums were collected at baseline for CD138 measurement. OS determinants were assessed and, based on the final multivariate model, a prognostic score was proposed. Two independent OS prognostic factors were identified: Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) high level (p = 0.0066) and log-CD138 high level (p = 0.0190). The determination of CD138 binary information (cutoff: 75 ng/mL) allowed the assessment of a biological prognostic score with CD138 and LDH values, identifying three risk groups for death (median OS= 38.9, 30.1 and 19.8 months for the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively; p value for OS, in mCRC patients. A simple biological scoring system is proposed including LDH and CD138 binary status values. © 2016 UICC.

  1. Systematic assessment of prognostic gene signatures for breast cancer shows distinct influence of time and ER status

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Xi; Rødland, Einar Andreas; Sørlie, Therese; Vollan, Hans Kristian Moen; Russnes, Hege G; Kristensen, Vessela N; Lingjærde, Ole Christian; Børresen-Dale, Anne-Lise

    2014-01-01

    The aim was to assess and compare prognostic power of nine breast cancer gene signatures (Intrinsic, PAM50, 70-gene, 76-gene, Genomic-Grade-Index, 21-gene-Recurrence-Score, EndoPredict, Wound-Response and Hypoxia) in relation to ER status and follow-up time. A gene expression dataset from 947 breast tumors was used to evaluate the signatures for prediction of Distant Metastasis Free Survival (DMFS). A total of 912 patients had available DMFS status. The recently published METABRIC cohort was used as an additional validation set. Survival predictions were fairly concordant across most signatures. Prognostic power declined with follow-up time. During the first 5 years of followup, all signatures except for Hypoxia were predictive for DMFS in ER-positive disease, and 76-gene, Hypoxia and Wound-Response were prognostic in ER-negative disease. After 5 years, the signatures had little prognostic power. Gene signatures provide significant prognostic information beyond tumor size, node status and histological grade. Generally, these signatures performed better for ER-positive disease, indicating that risk within each ER stratum is driven by distinct underlying biology. Most of the signatures were strong risk predictors for DMFS during the first 5 years of follow-up. Combining gene signatures with histological grade or tumor size, could improve the prognostic power, perhaps also of long-term survival

  2. Do the key prognostic factors for non-specific neck pain have moderation effects? - A study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasundaram, Arun Prasad; Robinson, Hilde Stendal; Vøllestad, Nina Køpke

    2018-05-01

    Neck pain is one of the common musculoskeletal conditions prevalent in the general population in Norway. Patients with neck pain, seek treatment from different health professionals such as general practitioners, physiotherapists, chiropractors and alternative medicine practitioners. The interventions for neck pain are typically provided in a primary care or specialised healthcare setting depending on the general practitioners' referral patterns. Clinicians are interested to know the various prognostic factors that can explain the recovery from neck pain. In order to know this, studies have explored and reported on a range of prognostic factors that contribute to the outcomes in patients with neck pain. This information is currently available only for neck pain following whiplash injury that has a traumatic origin. There is limited information on the role of prognostic factors specifically for non-specific neck pain without a traumatic episode. Moreover, there is a lack of data on whether there are interactions (moderation effects) between the prognostic factors. Therefore, we propose a hypothesis to elucidate whether the same set of prognostic factors found in neck pain associated with whiplash injuries are also identified in patients with neck pain without trauma. Additionally, we hypothesize that the association between a prognostic factor and the outcome variable (s) would be dependent on the third variable, thereby confirming the moderation effects. Clinicians could make informed decisions in the clinical management of neck pain with the knowledge of prognostic factors that explain the outcomes. It could also be used for the development of new interventions or for modifying the existing ones. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veneziano, D.

    1975-01-01

    What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

  4. [Prognostic factors of early breast cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almagro, Elena; González, Cynthia S; Espinosa, Enrique

    2016-02-19

    Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  5. Prognostic accuracy of electroencephalograms in preterm infants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fogtmann, Emilie Pi; Plomgaard, Anne Mette; Greisen, Gorm

    2017-01-01

    CONTEXT: Brain injury is common in preterm infants, and predictors of neurodevelopmental outcome are relevant. OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic test accuracy of the background activity of the EEG recorded as amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG) or conventional EEG early in life in preterm infants...... for predicting neurodevelopmental outcome. DATA SOURCES: The Cochrane Library, PubMed, Embase, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature. STUDY SELECTION: We included observational studies that had obtained an aEEG or EEG within 7 days of life in preterm infants and reported...... neurodevelopmental outcomes 1 to 10 years later. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently performed data extraction with regard to participants, prognostic testing, and outcomes. RESULTS: Thirteen observational studies with a total of 1181 infants were included. A metaanalysis was performed based on 3 studies...

  6. Diagnostic and prognostic epigenetic biomarkers in cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa-Pinheiro, Pedro; Montezuma, Diana; Henrique, Rui; Jerónimo, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    Growing cancer incidence and mortality worldwide demands development of accurate biomarkers to perfect detection, diagnosis, prognostication and monitoring. Urologic (prostate, bladder, kidney), lung, breast and colorectal cancers are the most common and despite major advances in their characterization, this has seldom translated into biomarkers amenable for clinical practice. Epigenetic alterations are innovative cancer biomarkers owing to stability, frequency, reversibility and accessibility in body fluids, entailing great potential of assay development to assist in patient management. Several studies identified putative epigenetic cancer biomarkers, some of which have been commercialized. However, large multicenter validation studies are required to foster translation to the clinics. Herein we review the most promising epigenetic detection, diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers for the most common cancers.

  7. Prognostic Gene Expression Profiles in Breast Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kristina Pilekær

    Each year approximately 4,800 Danish women are diagnosed with breast cancer. Several clinical and pathological factors are used as prognostic and predictive markers to categorize the patients into groups of high or low risk. Around 90% of all patients are allocated to the high risk group...... clinical courses, and they may be useful as novel prognostic biomarkers in breast cancer. The aim of the present project was to predict the development of metastasis in lymph node negative breast cancer patients by RNA profiling. We collected and analyzed 82 primary breast tumors from patients who...... and the time of event. Previous findings have shown that high expression of the lncRNA HOTAIR is correlated with poor survival in breast cancer. We validated this finding by demonstrating that high HOTAIR expression in our primary tumors was significantly associated with worse prognosis independent...

  8. Reliability of construction materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merz, H.

    1976-01-01

    One can also speak of reliability with respect to materials. While for reliability of components the MTBF (mean time between failures) is regarded as the main criterium, this is replaced with regard to materials by possible failure mechanisms like physical/chemical reaction mechanisms, disturbances of physical or chemical equilibrium, or other interactions or changes of system. The main tasks of the reliability analysis of materials therefore is the prediction of the various failure reasons, the identification of interactions, and the development of nondestructive testing methods. (RW) [de

  9. Structural Reliability Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

    The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...... of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature...... of the uncertainties and their interplay is the developed, step-by-step. The concepts presented are illustrated by numerous examples throughout the text....

  10. Reliability and mechanical design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemaire, Maurice

    1997-01-01

    A lot of results in mechanical design are obtained from a modelisation of physical reality and from a numerical solution which would lead to the evaluation of needs and resources. The goal of the reliability analysis is to evaluate the confidence which it is possible to grant to the chosen design through the calculation of a probability of failure linked to the retained scenario. Two types of analysis are proposed: the sensitivity analysis and the reliability analysis. Approximate methods are applicable to problems related to reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS)

  11. RTE - 2013 Reliability Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denis, Anne-Marie

    2014-01-01

    RTE publishes a yearly reliability report based on a standard model to facilitate comparisons and highlight long-term trends. The 2013 report is not only stating the facts of the Significant System Events (ESS), but it moreover underlines the main elements dealing with the reliability of the electrical power system. It highlights the various elements which contribute to present and future reliability and provides an overview of the interaction between the various stakeholders of the Electrical Power System on the scale of the European Interconnected Network. (author)

  12. The DSM-5 diagnostic criteria for anorexia nervosa may change its population prevalence and prognostic value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mustelin, Linda; Silén, Yasmina; Raevuori, Anu; Hoek, Hans W; Kaprio, Jaakko; Keski-Rahkonen, Anna

    2016-06-01

    The definition of anorexia nervosa was revised for the Fifth Edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-5). We examined the impact of these changes on the prevalence and prognosis of anorexia nervosa. In a nationwide longitudinal study of Finnish twins born 1975-1979, the women (N = 2825) underwent a 2-stage screening for eating disorders at mean age 24. Fifty-five women fulfilled DSM-IV criteria for lifetime anorexia nervosa. When we recoded the interviews using DSM-5 criteria, we detected 37 new cases. We contrasted new DSM-5 vs. DSM-IV cases to assess their clinical characteristics and prognosis. We also estimated lifetime prevalences and incidences and tested the association of minimum BMI with prognosis. We observed a 60% increase in the lifetime prevalence of anorexia nervosa using the new diagnostic boundaries, from 2.2% to 3.6%. The new cases had a later age of onset (18.8 y vs. 16.5, p = 0.002), higher minimum BMI (16.9 vs. 15.5 kg/m(2), p = 0.0004), a shorter duration of illness (one year vs. three years, p = 0.002), and a higher 5-year probability or recovery (81% vs. 67%, p = 0.002). Minimum BMI was not associated with prognosis. It therefore appears that the substantial increase in prevalence of anorexia nervosa is offset by a more benign course of illness in new cases. Increased diagnostic heterogeneity underscores the need for reliable indicators of disease severity. Our findings indicate that BMI may not be an ideal severity marker, but should be complemented by prognostically informative criteria. Future studies should focus on identifying such factors in prospective settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Genetic prognostic markers in colorectal cancer.

    OpenAIRE

    Houlston, R S; Tomlinson, I P

    1997-01-01

    The contribution of molecular genetics to colorectal cancer has been restricted largely to relatively rare inherited tumours and to the detection of germline mutations predisposing to these cancers. However, much is now also known about somatic events leading to colorectal cancer. A number of studies has been undertaken examining possible relations between genetic features and prognostic indices. While many of these studies are small and inconclusive, it is clear that a number of different pa...

  14. No prognostic value added by vitamin D pathway SNPs to current prognostic system for melanoma survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Luo

    Full Text Available The prognostic improvement attributed to genetic markers over current prognostic system has not been well studied for melanoma. The goal of this study is to evaluate the added prognostic value of Vitamin D Pathway (VitD SNPs to currently known clinical and demographic factors such as age, sex, Breslow thickness, mitosis and ulceration (CDF. We utilized two large independent well-characterized melanoma studies: the Genes, Environment, and Melanoma (GEM and MD Anderson studies, and performed variable selection of VitD pathway SNPs and CDF using Random Survival Forest (RSF method in addition to Cox proportional hazards models. The Harrell's C-index was used to compare the performance of model predictability. The population-based GEM study enrolled 3,578 incident cases of cutaneous melanoma (CM, and the hospital-based MD Anderson study consisted of 1,804 CM patients. Including both VitD SNPs and CDF yielded C-index of 0.85, which provided slight but not significant improvement by CDF alone (C-index = 0.83 in the GEM study. Similar results were observed in the independent MD Anderson study (C-index = 0.84 and 0.83, respectively. The Cox model identified no significant associations after adjusting for multiplicity. Our results do not support clinically significant prognostic improvements attributable to VitD pathway SNPs over current prognostic system for melanoma survival.

  15. PROGNOSTIC FACTORS OF SURVIVAL IN RENAL CANCER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Seriogin

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to reveal the independent anatomic, histological, and clinical factors of cancer-specific survival in patients with renal-cell carcinoma (RCC. For this, the authors retrospectively analyzed their experience with radical surgical treatments in 73 RCC patients operated on at the Department of Urology and Surgical Andrology, Russian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2004; their outcomes have become known by the present time. There was a statistically significant correlation of cancer-specific survival with its parameters, such as pathological stage of a tumor, its maximum pathological size, differentiation grade, involvement of regional lymph nodes, venous tumor thrombosis, level of thrombocytosis, and degree of the clinical symptoms of the disease. Multivariate analysis of survival in RCC in relation to the prognostic factors could reveal odd ratios for the limit values of significant prognostic factors. The statistically significant prognostic values established in the present study, as well as the molecular factors the implication of which is being now investigated can become in future an effective addition to the TNM staging system to define indications for certain treatments and to predict survival in RCC  

  16. PROGNOSTIC FACTORS OF SURVIVAL IN RENAL CANCER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Seriogin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to reveal the independent anatomic, histological, and clinical factors of cancer-specific survival in patients with renal-cell carcinoma (RCC. For this, the authors retrospectively analyzed their experience with radical surgical treatments in 73 RCC patients operated on at the Department of Urology and Surgical Andrology, Russian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2004; their outcomes have become known by the present time. There was a statistically significant correlation of cancer-specific survival with its parameters, such as pathological stage of a tumor, its maximum pathological size, differentiation grade, involvement of regional lymph nodes, venous tumor thrombosis, level of thrombocytosis, and degree of the clinical symptoms of the disease. Multivariate analysis of survival in RCC in relation to the prognostic factors could reveal odd ratios for the limit values of significant prognostic factors. The statistically significant prognostic values established in the present study, as well as the molecular factors the implication of which is being now investigated can become in future an effective addition to the TNM staging system to define indications for certain treatments and to predict survival in RCC  

  17. Recommendations for certification or measurement of reliability for reliable digital archival repositories with emphasis on access

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Regina Ventura Amorim Gonçalez

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Considering the guidelines of ISO 16363: 2012 (Space data and information transfer systems -- Audit and certification of trustworthy digital repositories and the text of CONARQ Resolution 39 for certification of Reliable Digital Archival Repository (RDC-Arq, verify the technical recommendations should be used as the basis for a digital archival repository to be considered reliable. Objective: Identify requirements for the creation of Reliable Digital Archival Repositories with emphasis on access to information from the ISO 16363: 2012 and CONARQ Resolution 39. Methodology: For the development of the study, the methodology consisted of an exploratory, descriptive and documentary theoretical investigation, since it is based on ISO 16363: 2012 and CONARQ Resolution 39. From the perspective of the problem approach, the study is qualitative and quantitative, since the data were collected, tabulated, and analyzed from the interpretation of their contents. Results: We presented a set of Checklist Recommendations for reliability measurement and/or certification for RDC-Arq with a clipping focused on the identification of requirements with emphasis on access to information is presented. Conclusions: The right to information as well as access to reliable information is a premise for Digital Archival Repositories, so the set of recommendations is directed to archivists who work in Digital Repositories and wish to verify the requirements necessary to evaluate the reliability of the Digital Repository or still guide the information professional in collecting requirements for repository reliability certification.

  18. Approach to reliability assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, A.E.; Bourne, A.J.

    1975-01-01

    Experience has shown that reliability assessments can play an important role in the early design and subsequent operation of technological systems where reliability is at a premium. The approaches to and techniques for such assessments, which have been outlined in the paper, have been successfully applied in variety of applications ranging from individual equipments to large and complex systems. The general approach involves the logical and systematic establishment of the purpose, performance requirements and reliability criteria of systems. This is followed by an appraisal of likely system achievment based on the understanding of different types of variational behavior. A fundamental reliability model emerges from the correlation between the appropriate Q and H functions for performance requirement and achievement. This model may cover the complete spectrum of performance behavior in all the system dimensions

  19. The rating reliability calculator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solomon David J

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

  20. Structural systems reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frangopol, D.

    1975-01-01

    For an exact evaluation of the reliability of a structure it appears necessary to determine the distribution densities of the loads and resistances and to calculate the correlation coefficients between loads and between resistances. These statistical characteristics can be obtained only on the basis of a long activity period. In case that such studies are missing the statistical properties formulated here give upper and lower bounds of the reliability. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Reliability and maintainability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    Several communications in this conference are concerned with nuclear plant reliability and maintainability; their titles are: maintenance optimization of stand-by Diesels of 900 MW nuclear power plants; CLAIRE: an event-based simulation tool for software testing; reliability as one important issue within the periodic safety review of nuclear power plants; design of nuclear building ventilation by the means of functional analysis; operation characteristic analysis for a power industry plant park, as a function of influence parameters

  2. Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  3. Health Information on the Web: Finding Reliable Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... NutritionBalancing Your Food PlateFollow the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s MyPlate and other guidelines to get a balanced ... Rehabilitation Emotional Well-Being Mental Health Sex and Birth Control Sex and Sexuality Birth Control Family Health ...

  4. Nuclear plant reliability data system. 1979 annual reports of cumulative system and component reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    The primary purposes of the information in these reports are the following: to provide operating statistics of safety-related systems within a unit which may be used to compare and evaluate reliability performance and to provide failure mode and failure rate statistics on components which may be used in failure mode effects analysis, fault hazard analysis, probabilistic reliability analysis, and so forth

  5. Analysis and Application of Reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hae Seong; Park, Dong Ho; Kim, Jae Ju

    1999-05-01

    This book tells of analysis and application of reliability, which includes definition, importance and historical background of reliability, function of reliability and failure rate, life distribution and assumption of reliability, reliability of unrepaired system, reliability of repairable system, sampling test of reliability, failure analysis like failure analysis by FEMA and FTA, and cases, accelerated life testing such as basic conception, acceleration and acceleration factor, and analysis of accelerated life testing data, maintenance policy about alternation and inspection.

  6. Prognostic significance of adverse events in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granito, Alessandro; Marinelli, Sara; Negrini, Giulia; Menetti, Saverio; Benevento, Francesca; Bolondi, Luigi

    2016-03-01

    Sorafenib is the standard treatment for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with advanced stage disease. Although its effectiveness has been demonstrated by randomized clinical trials and confirmed by field practice studies, reliable markers predicting therapeutic response have not yet been identified. Like other tyrosine kinase inhibitors, treatment with sorafenib is burdened by the development of adverse effects, the most frequent being cutaneous toxicity, diarrhoea, arterial hypertension and fatigue. In recent years, several studies have analysed the correlation between off-target effects and sorafenib efficacy in patients with HCC. In this review, an overview of the studies assessing the prognostic significance of sorafenib-related adverse events is provided.

  7. A robust prognostic gene expression signature for early stage lung adenocarcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krzystanek, Marcin; Moldvay, Judit; Szüts, David

    2016-01-01

    Stage I lung adenocarcinoma is usually not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy; however, around half of these patients do not survive 5 years. Therefore, a reliable prognostic biomarker for early stage patients would be critical to identify those most likely to benefit from early additional treatm...... not given adjuvant therapy. Seven genes consistently obtained statistical significance in Cox regression for overall survival. The combined signature has a weighted mean hazard ratio of 3.2 in all cohorts and 3.0 (C.I. 1.3-7.4, p ...

  8. Strength Measurements in Acute Hamstring Injuries: Intertester Reliability and Prognostic Value of Handheld Dynamometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reurink, Gustaaf; Goudswaard, Gert Jan; Moen, Maarten H.; Tol, Johannes L.; Verhaar, Jan A. N.; Weir, Adam

    2016-01-01

    Study Design Cohort study, repeated measures. Background Although hamstring strength measurements are used for assessing prognosis and monitoring recovery after hamstring injury, their actual clinical relevance has not been established. Handheld dynamometry (HHD) is a commonly used method of

  9. Diagnostic serum vitamin D level is not a reliable prognostic factor for resectable breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizrak Kaya, Dilsa; Ozturk, Bengi; Kubilay, Pinar; Onur, Handan; Utkan, Gungor; Cay Senler, Filiz; Alkan, Ali; Yerlikaya, Halis; Koksoy, Elif B; Karci, Ebru; Demirkazik, Ahmet; Akbulut, Hakan; Icli, Fikri

    2018-05-09

    There are inconsistent results about the effects of vitamin D level on breast cancer prognosis. We aimed to investigate the effect of vitamin D levels on the prognosis of resectable breast cancer in a patient group with highly different clothing styles. A total of 186 breast cancer patients were enrolled in the study. Vitamin D level was sufficient, insufficient and deficient in 17.2, 52.2 and 30.6% of patients, respectively. There was a significant relationship between clothing style and serum 25 (OH) D levels. We could not establish any relation between vitamin D level and tumor characteristics or survival. Vitamin D supplementation can be more important than diagnostic serum vitamin D level on prognosis of breast cancer.

  10. [Reliability and validity of assessment of educational outcomes obtained by students of Medical Rescue at Medical University of Warsaw].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panczyk, Mariusz; Stachacz, Grzegorz; Gałązkowski, Robert; Gotlib, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    In the interest of preservation of high degree of objectivity of information about students' educational outcomes, a system of assessment needs to meet criteria of appropriate reliability and validity. Analysis of reliability and validity of the system of assessment of students' educational outcomes for courses followed by an examination and covered by a curriculum in Medical Rescue at Medical University of Warsaw (MU W). A retrospective study enrolling a group of 421 students of eight subsequent full education cycles. Detailed data concerning grades for fourteen courses followed by an examination in the entire course of studies were collected. Reliability (Cronbach's alpha coefficient) and criteria validity (Spearman's rank correlation) were assessed. Internal consistency was estimated using a multiple regression model. The levels of assessment reliability for the general university, pre-clinical, and clinical scopes amounted to alpha: 0.42, 0.53, and 0.70, respectively. The strongest positive correlations between the results of pre-clinical and clinical trainings were found for the Anatomy course (r ≈ 0.30). Only in the case of the Pharmacology course it was found that students' achievements in this field were significantly correlated with all other courses of clinical training. The influence of educational outcomes in particular areas of clinical training on the final grade for the entire course of studies was diverse (β regression between 0.04 and 0.11). While the Pharmacology course had the strongest impact on final results, the Surgery course had the least influence on students' final grades (β = 0.04). 1. Sufficient reliability of the system of assessment of educational outcomes in Medical Rescue showed good precision and repeatability of assessment. 2. A low level of validity was caused by a failure to keep the appropriateness of the assessment of educational outcomes in several clinical courses. 3. Prognostic and diagnostic validity of methods used for

  11. The prognostic importance of lung function in patients admitted with heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iversen, Kasper Karmark; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Akkan, Dilek; Kober, Lars; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hassager, Christian; Vestbo, Jorgen; Kjoller, Erik

    2010-07-01

    The purpose of the present study was to determine the prognostic importance for all-cause mortality of lung function variables obtained by spirometry in an unselected group of patients admitted with heart failure (HF). This was a prospective prognostic study performed as part of the EchoCardiography and Heart Outcome Study (ECHOS). This analysis included 532 patients admitted with a clinical diagnosis of HF. All patients underwent spirometry and echocardiography and the diagnosis of HF was made according to established criteria. Mean forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)) was 65% of the predicted value [95% confidence interval (CI) 63-67%], mean forced vital capacity (FVC) was 71% of predicted (95% CI 69-72%), and FEV(1)/FVC was 0.72 (95% CI 0.71-0.73). FEV(1), FVC, and FEV(1)/FVC were all significant prognostic factors for all-cause mortality in univariate analyses. In a multivariate analysis, FEV(1) had independent prognostic value (hazard ratio 0.86 per 10% change, P information for all-cause mortality in patients admitted with HF. Spirometry therefore seems to be worth considering for all patients admitted with HF in order to identify patients at high risk.

  12. Machinery health prognostics: A systematic review from data acquisition to RUL prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Yaguo; Li, Naipeng; Guo, Liang; Li, Ningbo; Yan, Tao; Lin, Jing

    2018-05-01

    Machinery prognostics is one of the major tasks in condition based maintenance (CBM), which aims to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of machinery based on condition information. A machinery prognostic program generally consists of four technical processes, i.e., data acquisition, health indicator (HI) construction, health stage (HS) division, and RUL prediction. Over recent years, a significant amount of research work has been undertaken in each of the four processes. And much literature has made an excellent overview on the last process, i.e., RUL prediction. However, there has not been a systematic review that covers the four technical processes comprehensively. To fill this gap, this paper provides a review on machinery prognostics following its whole program, i.e., from data acquisition to RUL prediction. First, in data acquisition, several prognostic datasets widely used in academic literature are introduced systematically. Then, commonly used HI construction approaches and metrics are discussed. After that, the HS division process is summarized by introducing its major tasks and existing approaches. Afterwards, the advancements of RUL prediction are reviewed including the popular approaches and metrics. Finally, the paper provides discussions on current situation, upcoming challenges as well as possible future trends for researchers in this field.

  13. Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trebi-Ollennu, Ashitey; Dolan, John; Stancliff, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    A mission reliability estimation method has been designed to translate mission requirements into choices of robot modules in order to configure a multi-robot team to have high reliability at minimal cost. In order to build cost-effective robot teams for long-term missions, one must be able to compare alternative design paradigms in a principled way by comparing the reliability of different robot models and robot team configurations. Core modules have been created including: a probabilistic module with reliability-cost characteristics, a method for combining the characteristics of multiple modules to determine an overall reliability-cost characteristic, and a method for the generation of legitimate module combinations based on mission specifications and the selection of the best of the resulting combinations from a cost-reliability standpoint. The developed methodology can be used to predict the probability of a mission being completed, given information about the components used to build the robots, as well as information about the mission tasks. In the research for this innovation, sample robot missions were examined and compared to the performance of robot teams with different numbers of robots and different numbers of spare components. Data that a mission designer would need was factored in, such as whether it would be better to have a spare robot versus an equivalent number of spare parts, or if mission cost can be reduced while maintaining reliability using spares. This analytical model was applied to an example robot mission, examining the cost-reliability tradeoffs among different team configurations. Particularly scrutinized were teams using either redundancy (spare robots) or repairability (spare components). Using conservative estimates of the cost-reliability relationship, results show that it is possible to significantly reduce the cost of a robotic mission by using cheaper, lower-reliability components and providing spares. This suggests that the

  14. British athletics muscle injury classification: a reliability study for a new grading system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Patel, A.; Chakraverty, J.; Pollock, N.; Chakraverty, R.; Suokas, A.K.; James, S.L.

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To implement and validate the newly proposed British athletics muscle injury classification in the assessment of hamstring injuries in track and field athletes and to analyse the nature and frequency of the discrepancies. Materials and methods: This was a retrospective study analysing hamstring injuries in elite British athletes using the proposed classification system. Classification of 65 hamstring injuries in 45 high-level athletes by two radiologists at two time points 4 months apart to determine interrater variability, intrarater variability, and feasibility of the classification system was undertaken. Results: Interrater Kappa values of 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.67–0.92; p<0.0001) for Round 1 and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.76–1.00; p<0.0001) for Round 2 of the review were observed. Percentages of agreement were 85% for Round 1 and 91% for Round 2. The intrarater Kappa value for the two reviewers were 0.76 (95% CI: 0.63–0.88; p<0.0001) and 0.65 (95% CI: 0.53–0.76; p<0.0001) and the average was 0.71 suggesting substantial overall agreement. The percentages of agreement were 82% and 72%, respectively. Conclusions: This classification system is straightforward to use and produces both reproducible and consistent results based on interrater and intrarater Kappa values with at least substantial agreement in all groups. Further work is ongoing to investigate whether individual grades within this classification system provide prognostic information and could guide clinical management. - Highlights: • This classification system is based on MRI parameters shown to have prognostic relevance. • It is simple to use, reproducible and clinically relevant which will enhance clinical practice. • Once clinicians are familiar with the classification inter & intrarater reliability will improve.

  15. Development and external validation of a prognostic nomogram for metastatic uveal melanoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Valpione

    Full Text Available Approximately 50% of patients with uveal melanoma (UM will develop metastatic disease, usually involving the liver. The outcome of metastatic UM (mUM is generally poor and no standard therapy has been established. Additionally, clinicians lack a validated prognostic tool to evaluate these patients. The aim of this work was to develop a reliable prognostic nomogram for clinicians.Two cohorts of mUM patients, from Veneto Oncology Institute (IOV (N=152 and Mayo Clinic (MC (N=102, were analyzed to develop and externally validate, a prognostic nomogram.The median survival of mUM was 17.2 months in the IOV cohort and 19.7 in the MC cohort. Percentage of liver involvement (HR 1.6, elevated levels of serum LDH (HR 1.6, and a WHO performance status=1 (HR 1.5 or 2-3 (HR 4.6 were associated with worse prognosis. Longer disease-free interval from diagnosis of UM to that of mUM conferred a survival advantage (HR 0.9. The nomogram had a concordance probability of 0.75 (SE .006 in the development dataset (IOV, and 0.80 (SE .009 in the external validation (MC. Nomogram predictions were well calibrated.The nomogram, which includes percentage of liver involvement, LDH levels, WHO performance status and disease free-interval accurately predicts the prognosis of mUM and could be useful for decision-making and risk stratification for clinical trials.

  16. GERD—Barrett—Adenocarcinoma: Do We Have Suitable Prognostic and Predictive Molecular Markers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romana Illig

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to unfavorable lifestyle habits (unhealthy diet and tobacco abuse the incidence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD in western countries is increasing. The GERD-Barrett-Adenocarcinoma sequence currently lacks well-defined diagnostic, progressive, predictive, and prognostic biomarkers (i providing an appropriate screening method identifying the presence of the disease, (ii estimating the risk of evolving cancer, that is, the progression from Barrett’s esophagus (BE to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC, (iii predicting the response to therapy, and (iv indicating an overall survival—prognosis for EAC patients. Based on histomorphological findings, detailed screening and therapeutic guidelines have been elaborated, although epidemiological studies could not support the postulated increasing progression rates of GERD to BE and EAC. Additionally, proposed predictive and prognostic markers are rather heterogeneous by nature, lack substantial proofs, and currently do not allow stratification of GERD patients for progression, outcome, and therapeutic effectiveness in clinical practice. The aim of this paper is to discuss the current knowledge regarding the GERD-BE-EAC sequence mainly focusing on the disputable and ambiguous status of proposed biomarkers to identify promising and reliable markers in order to provide more detailed insights into pathophysiological mechanisms and thus to improve prognostic and predictive therapeutic approaches.

  17. MOV reliability evaluation and periodic verification scheduling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bunte, B.D.

    1996-12-01

    The purpose of this paper is to establish a periodic verification testing schedule based on the expected long term reliability of gate or globe motor operated valves (MOVs). The methodology in this position paper determines the nominal (best estimate) design margin for any MOV based on the best available information pertaining to the MOVs design requirements, design parameters, existing hardware design, and present setup. The uncertainty in this margin is then determined using statistical means. By comparing the nominal margin to the uncertainty, the reliability of the MOV is estimated. The methodology is appropriate for evaluating the reliability of MOVs in the GL 89-10 program. It may be used following periodic testing to evaluate and trend MOV performance and reliability. It may also be used to evaluate the impact of proposed modifications and maintenance activities such as packing adjustments. In addition, it may be used to assess the impact of new information of a generic nature which impacts safety related MOVs.

  18. MOV reliability evaluation and periodic verification scheduling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunte, B.D.

    1996-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to establish a periodic verification testing schedule based on the expected long term reliability of gate or globe motor operated valves (MOVs). The methodology in this position paper determines the nominal (best estimate) design margin for any MOV based on the best available information pertaining to the MOVs design requirements, design parameters, existing hardware design, and present setup. The uncertainty in this margin is then determined using statistical means. By comparing the nominal margin to the uncertainty, the reliability of the MOV is estimated. The methodology is appropriate for evaluating the reliability of MOVs in the GL 89-10 program. It may be used following periodic testing to evaluate and trend MOV performance and reliability. It may also be used to evaluate the impact of proposed modifications and maintenance activities such as packing adjustments. In addition, it may be used to assess the impact of new information of a generic nature which impacts safety related MOVs

  19. Component reliability analysis for development of component reliability DB of Korean standard NPPs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, S. Y.; Han, S. H.; Kim, S. H.

    2002-01-01

    The reliability data of Korean NPP that reflects the plant specific characteristics is necessary for PSA and Risk Informed Application. We have performed a project to develop the component reliability DB and calculate the component reliability such as failure rate and unavailability. We have collected the component operation data and failure/repair data of Korean standard NPPs. We have analyzed failure data by developing a data analysis method which incorporates the domestic data situation. And then we have compared the reliability results with the generic data for the foreign NPPs

  20. Nailfold capillaroscopy as a diagnostic and prognostic method in rosacea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Gabriela Poglia; Brenner, Fabiane Mulinari; Muller, Carolina de Souza; Wojcik, Adma Lima

    2011-01-01

    There is no appropriate and reliable method of evaluating and monitoring severity in rosacea. To determine the importance of nailfold capillaroscopy as a diagnostic and prognostic method for patients with rosacea. A cross-sectional study where eight patients with rosacea and 8 control subjects were submitted to nailfold capillaroscopy from May to July 2009. We collected clinical data related to gender, age, skin phototype, and rosacea stage according to Plewig and Kligman classification and the classification of the National Rosacea Society. Additionally, we evaluated the progression of the disease and treatment therapies previously used. The majority of the patients evaluated (6 out of 8 patients) had rosacea subtype I (vascular) or erythematotelangiectatic rosacea. The mean duration of the disorder was 5.96 years, and 87.5% of the patients were under treatment with topical metronidazole. Nailfold cappilaroscopy showed that evidence of devascularization was absent in both groups. Nailfold capillaroscopy presents a nonspecific pattern and does not seem to help in the diagnosis or prognosis of rosacea.

  1. Prognostic value of quantitative furosemide radionuclide renography in obstructive nephropathy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuemichen, C.; Fischer, R.; Sierke, P.; Joseph, A.; Krause, T.

    1988-01-01

    Diuretic radionuclide renography is applied in patients with hydronephrosis in order to distinguish dilated, non-obstructed systems from those with significant mechanical obstruction. This is done after furosemide application by (semi) quantification of pelvic radioactivity outflow. In the dilated, non-obstructed pelvis, this outflow is increased, whereas in mechanical obstructed systems no response or even a decreased outflow is observed. It was expected that the latter outcome of the test is associated with an impaired renal function due to obstructive nephropathy. In the case that furosemide was given 30 min after 123 I hippuran application, this assumption could not be proved. When furosemide and 123 I hippuran were applied simultaneously, only a poor correlation was found between the response of pelvic outflow and the individual tubular clearance of the affected kidney. On the other hand, there was a clear correlation between the delay of pelvic outflow in the non-diuretic radionuclide renography and the individual tubular clearance. It can therefore be concluded that this test has little prognostic value and that other criteria in addition to the quantification of diuretic pelvic outflow are necessary for providing more reliable results. (orig.)

  2. Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Ceyla, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  3. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2010: February 18-19, 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, J.

    2013-11-01

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  4. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2012: February 28 - March 1, 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, S.

    2013-11-01

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  5. Reliability of fossil-fuel and nuclear power installations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    The conference heard a total of 37 papers of which 24 were inputted in INIS. The subject area was mainly the use of reliability information systems and the production of data banks for these systems, the application of the reliability theory and the reliability analysis of equipment and systems of nuclear power plants. (J.P.)

  6. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2011: February 16-17, 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, S.

    2013-11-01

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  7. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2013: February 26-27, 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, S.

    2013-10-01

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  8. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2014: February 25-26, 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kurtz, S.

    2014-02-01

    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  9. Sensitivity of adaptive enrichment trial designs to accrual rates, time to outcome measurement, and prognostic variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianchen Qian

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive enrichment designs involve rules for restricting enrollment to a subset of the population during the course of an ongoing trial. This can be used to target those who benefit from the experimental treatment. Trial characteristics such as the accrual rate and the prognostic value of baseline variables are typically unknown when a trial is being planned; these values are typically assumed based on information available before the trial starts. Because of the added complexity in adaptive enrichment designs compared to standard designs, it may be of special concern how sensitive the trial performance is to deviations from assumptions. Through simulation studies, we evaluate the sensitivity of Type I error, power, expected sample size, and trial duration to different design characteristics. Our simulation distributions mimic features of data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative cohort study, and involve two subpopulations based on a genetic marker. We investigate the impact of the following design characteristics: the accrual rate, the time from enrollment to measurement of a short-term outcome and the primary outcome, and the prognostic value of baseline variables and short-term outcomes. To leverage prognostic information in baseline variables and short-term outcomes, we use a semiparametric, locally efficient estimator, and investigate its strengths and limitations compared to standard estimators. We apply information-based monitoring, and evaluate how accurately information can be estimated in an ongoing trial.

  10. Reliable computer systems design and evaluatuion

    CERN Document Server

    Siewiorek, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Enhance your hardware/software reliabilityEnhancement of system reliability has been a major concern of computer users and designers ¦ and this major revision of the 1982 classic meets users' continuing need for practical information on this pressing topic. Included are case studies of reliablesystems from manufacturers such as Tandem, Stratus, IBM, and Digital, as well as coverage of special systems such as the Galileo Orbiter fault protection system and AT&T telephone switching processors.

  11. Structural reliability of atomic power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klemin, A.I.; Polyakov, E.F.

    1980-01-01

    In 1978 the first specialized technical manual ''Technique of Calculating the Structural Reliability of an Atomic Power Plant and Its Systems in the Design Stage'' was developed. The present article contains information about the main characteristics and capabilities of the manual. The manual gives recommendations concerning the calculations of the reliability of such specific systems as the reactor control and safety system, the system of instrumentation and automatic control, and safety systems. 2 refs

  12. Safety and reliability criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neil, R.

    1978-01-01

    Nuclear power plants and, in particular, reactor pressure boundary components have unique reliability requirements, in that usually no significant redundancy is possible, and a single failure can give rise to possible widespread core damage and fission product release. Reliability may be required for availability or safety reasons, but in the case of the pressure boundary and certain other systems safety may dominate. Possible Safety and Reliability (S and R) criteria are proposed which would produce acceptable reactor design. Without some S and R requirement the designer has no way of knowing how far he must go in analysing his system or component, or whether his proposed solution is likely to gain acceptance. The paper shows how reliability targets for given components and systems can be individually considered against the derived S and R criteria at the design and construction stage. Since in the case of nuclear pressure boundary components there is often very little direct experience on which to base reliability studies, relevant non-nuclear experience is examined. (author)

  13. Proposed reliability cost model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1973-01-01

    The research investigations which were involved in the study include: cost analysis/allocation, reliability and product assurance, forecasting methodology, systems analysis, and model-building. This is a classic example of an interdisciplinary problem, since the model-building requirements include the need for understanding and communication between technical disciplines on one hand, and the financial/accounting skill categories on the other. The systems approach is utilized within this context to establish a clearer and more objective relationship between reliability assurance and the subcategories (or subelements) that provide, or reenforce, the reliability assurance for a system. Subcategories are further subdivided as illustrated by a tree diagram. The reliability assurance elements can be seen to be potential alternative strategies, or approaches, depending on the specific goals/objectives of the trade studies. The scope was limited to the establishment of a proposed reliability cost-model format. The model format/approach is dependent upon the use of a series of subsystem-oriented CER's and sometimes possible CTR's, in devising a suitable cost-effective policy.

  14. Operator reliability assessment system (OPERAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, A.; Spurgin, A.J.; Martin, T.; Welsch, J.; Hallam, J.W.

    1991-01-01

    OPERAS is a personal-computer (PC) based software to collect and process simulator data on control-room operators responses during requalification training scenarios. The data collection scheme is based upon approach developed earlier during the EPRI Operator Reliability Experiments project. The software allows automated data collection from simulator, thus minimizing simulator staff time and resources to collect, maintain and process data which can be useful in monitoring, assessing and enhancing the progress of crew reliability and effectiveness. The system is designed to provide the data and output information in the form of user-friendly charts, tables and figures for use by plant staff. OPERAS prototype software has been implemented at the Diablo Canyon (PWR) and Millstone (BWR) plants and is currently being used to collect operator response data. Data collected from similator include plant-state variables such as reactor pressure and temperature, malfunction, times at which annunciators are activated, operator actions and observations of crew behavior by training staff. The data and systematic analytical results provided by the OPERAS system can contribute to increase objectivity by the utility probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) and training staff in monitoring and assessing reliability of their crews

  15. Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research...

  16. Accelerated Aging Experiments for Capacitor Health Monitoring and Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper discusses experimental setups for health monitoring and prognostics of electrolytic capacitors under nominal operation and accelerated aging conditions....

  17. An Approach to Prognostic Decision Making in the Aerospace Domain

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The field of Prognostic Health Management (PHM) has been undergoing rapid growth in recent years, with development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for...

  18. A Survey of Metrics for Performance Evaluation of Prognostics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition basedmaintenance(CBM)ofcriticalsystems.Alongwith developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently predict...

  19. HER2 and GATA4 are new prognostic factors for early-stage ovarian granulosa cell tumor—a long-term follow-up study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Färkkilä, Anniina; Andersson, Noora; Bützow, Ralf; Leminen, Arto; Heikinheimo, Markku; Anttonen, Mikko; Unkila-Kallio, Leila

    2014-01-01

    Granulosa cell tumors (GCTs) carry a risk of recurrence also at an early stage, but reliable prognostic factors are lacking. We assessed clinicopathological prognostic factors and the prognostic roles of the human epidermal growth factor receptors (HER 2–4) and the transcription factor GATA4 in GCTs. We conducted a long-term follow-up study of 80 GCT patients with a mean follow-up time of 16.8 years. A tumor-tissue microarray was immunohistochemically stained for HER2–4 and GATA4. Expression of HER2–4 mRNA was studied by means of real time polymerase chain reaction and HER2 gene amplification was analyzed by means of silver in situ hybridization. The results were correlated to clinical data on recurrences and survival. We found that GCTs have an indolent prognosis, with 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) being 97.5%. Tumor recurrence was detected in 24% of the patients at a median of 7.0 years (range 2.6–18 years) after diagnosis. Tumor stage was not prognostic of disease-free survival (DFS). Of the molecular prognostic factors, high-level expression of HER2, and GATA4, and high nuclear atypia were prognostic of shorter DFS. In multivariate analyses, high-level coexpression of HER2 and GATA4 independently predicted DFS (hazard ratio [HR] 8.75, 95% CI 2.20–39.48, P = 0.002). High-level expression of GATA4 also predicted shorter DSS (HR 3.96, 95% CI 1.45–12.57, P = 0.006). In multivariate analyses, however, tumor stage (II–III) and nuclear atypia were independent prognostic factors of DSS. In conclusion HER2 and GATA4 are new molecular prognostic markers of GCT recurrence, which could be utilized to optimize the management and follow-up of patients with early-stage GCTs

  20. PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wishart, Gordon C; Azzato, Elizabeth M; Greenberg, David C; Rashbass, Jem; Kearins, Olive; Lawrence, Gill; Caldas, Carlos; Pharoah, Paul D P

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.

  1. A Combinatory Approach for Selecting Prognostic Genes in Microarray Studies of Tumour Survivals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qihua Tan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Different from significant gene expression analysis which looks for genes that are differentially regulated, feature selection in the microarray-based prognostic gene expression analysis aims at finding a subset of marker genes that are not only differentially expressed but also informative for prediction. Unfortunately feature selection in literature of microarray study is predominated by the simple heuristic univariate gene filter paradigm that selects differentially expressed genes according to their statistical significances. We introduce a combinatory feature selection strategy that integrates differential gene expression analysis with the Gram-Schmidt process to identify prognostic genes that are both statistically significant and highly informative for predicting tumour survival outcomes. Empirical application to leukemia and ovarian cancer survival data through-within- and cross-study validations shows that the feature space can be largely reduced while achieving improved testing performances.

  2. Reliability Centered Maintenance - Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammerer, Catherine C.

    2009-01-01

    Journal article about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodologies used by United Space Alliance, LLC (USA) in support of the Space Shuttle Program at Kennedy Space Center. The USA Reliability Centered Maintenance program differs from traditional RCM programs because various methodologies are utilized to take advantage of their respective strengths for each application. Based on operational experience, USA has customized the traditional RCM methodology into a streamlined lean logic path and has implemented the use of statistical tools to drive the process. USA RCM has integrated many of the L6S tools into both RCM methodologies. The tools utilized in the Measure, Analyze, and Improve phases of a Lean Six Sigma project lend themselves to application in the RCM process. All USA RCM methodologies meet the requirements defined in SAE JA 1011, Evaluation Criteria for Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) Processes. The proposed article explores these methodologies.

  3. Issues in cognitive reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, D.D.; Hitchler, M.J.; Rumancik, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter examines some problems in current methods to assess reactor operator reliability at cognitive tasks and discusses new approaches to solve these problems. The two types of human failures are errors in the execution of an intention and errors in the formation/selection of an intention. Topics considered include the types of description, error correction, cognitive performance and response time, the speed-accuracy tradeoff function, function based task analysis, and cognitive task analysis. One problem of human reliability analysis (HRA) techniques in general is the question of what are the units of behavior whose reliability are to be determined. A second problem for HRA is that people often detect and correct their errors. The use of function based analysis, which maps the problem space for plant control, is recommended

  4. Prognostic Factors, Treatment, and Survival in Dermatofibrosarcoma Protuberans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criscito, Maressa C; Martires, Kathryn J; Stein, Jennifer A

    2016-12-01

    There is limited information regarding the influence of patient demographics, tumor characteristics, and treatment type on the survival of patients with dermatofibrosarcoma protuberans (DFSP). To assess prognostic factors and to evaluate the influence of treatment modality on overall survival of patients with DFSP. We examined DFSP using data for 3686 patients with histologically confirmed cases of DFSP diagnosed between 1972 and 2012 from the 18 US regional registries of the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, with linkage to demographic data from the US Census Bureau for median household income (MHI). The analysis was performed in February 2016. The primary outcome measures were tumor characteristics, prognostic factors, and overall survival in months. There were 3686 cases of DFSP examined. Older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06-1.10; P < .001), male sex (HR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.09-3.55; P = .03), and tumor size (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01-1.18; P = .04) were significantly associated with poorer overall survival in a controlled analysis. Older age (odds ratio [OR], 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02; P = .01), male sex (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.57-2.42; P < .001), and black race (OR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.37-2.32; P < .001) were associated with larger (≥3.0 cm) tumors at presentation. Treatment modality did not influence overall survival; however, differences in patient characteristics affected the treatment received. Older age at presentation (OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03; P =.01), black race (OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.13-2.92; P = .01), large tumor size (OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.09-1.21; P < .001), and head or neck location (OR, 4.63; 95% CI, 2.66-8.07; P <.001) increased the likelihood of a patient receiving surgery and radiation over surgery alone. In addition, white patients (OR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.30-0.87; P=.01), women (OR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.36-0.78; P <.001), and patients with a higher MHI (OR, 1.27; 95

  5. Reliability of conditioned pain modulation: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Donna L.; Kemp, Harriet I.; Ridout, Deborah; Yarnitsky, David; Rice, Andrew S.C.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract A systematic literature review was undertaken to determine if conditioned pain modulation (CPM) is reliable. Longitudinal, English language observational studies of the repeatability of a CPM test paradigm in adult humans were included. Two independent reviewers assessed the risk of bias in 6 domains; study participation; study attrition; prognostic factor measurement; outcome measurement; confounding and analysis using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) critical assessment tool. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) less than 0.4 were considered to be poor; 0.4 and 0.59 to be fair; 0.6 and 0.75 good and greater than 0.75 excellent. Ten studies were included in the final review. Meta-analysis was not appropriate because of differences between studies. The intersession reliability of the CPM effect was investigated in 8 studies and reported as good (ICC = 0.6-0.75) in 3 studies and excellent (ICC > 0.75) in subgroups in 2 of those 3. The assessment of risk of bias demonstrated that reporting is not comprehensive for the description of sample demographics, recruitment strategy, and study attrition. The absence of blinding, a lack of control for confounding factors, and lack of standardisation in statistical analysis are common. Conditioned pain modulation is a reliable measure; however, the degree of reliability is heavily dependent on stimulation parameters and study methodology and this warrants consideration for investigators. The validation of CPM as a robust prognostic factor in experimental and clinical pain studies may be facilitated by improvements in the reporting of CPM reliability studies. PMID:27559835

  6. Reliability issues in PACS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taira, Ricky K.; Chan, Kelby K.; Stewart, Brent K.; Weinberg, Wolfram S.

    1991-07-01

    Reliability is an increasing concern when moving PACS from the experimental laboratory to the clinical environment. Any system downtime may seriously affect patient care. The authors report on the several classes of errors encountered during the pre-clinical release of the PACS during the past several months and present the solutions implemented to handle them. The reliability issues discussed include: (1) environmental precautions, (2) database backups, (3) monitor routines of critical resources and processes, (4) hardware redundancy (networks, archives), and (5) development of a PACS quality control program.

  7. Reliability Parts Derating Guidelines

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-01

    226-30, October 1974. 66 I, 26. "Reliability of GAAS Injection Lasers", De Loach , B. C., Jr., 1973 IEEE/OSA Conference on Laser Engineering and...Vol. R-23, No. 4, 226-30, October 1974. 28. "Reliability of GAAS Injection Lasers", De Loach , B. C., Jr., 1973 IEEE/OSA Conference on Laser...opnatien ot 󈨊 deg C, mounted on a 4-inach square 0.250~ inch thick al~loy alum~nusi panel.. This mounting technique should be L~ ken into cunoidur~tiou

  8. Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies (GRRAS) were proposed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kottner, Jan; Audigé, Laurent; Brorson, Stig

    2011-01-01

    Results of reliability and agreement studies are intended to provide information about the amount of error inherent in any diagnosis, score, or measurement. The level of reliability and agreement among users of scales, instruments, or classifications is widely unknown. Therefore, there is a need ......, standards, or guidelines for reporting reliability and agreement in the health care and medical field are lacking. The objective was to develop guidelines for reporting reliability and agreement studies....

  9. Reliability databases: State-of-the-art and perspectives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akhmedjanov, Farit

    2001-01-01

    The report gives a history of development and an overview of the existing reliability databases. This overview also describes some other (than computer databases) sources of reliability and failures information, e.g. reliability handbooks, but the mainattention is paid to standard models...... and software packages containing the data mentioned. The standards corresponding to collection and exchange of reliability data are observed too. Finally, perspective directions in such data sources development areshown....

  10. Effects of the Informed Health Choices primary school intervention on the ability of children in Uganda to assess the reliability of claims about treatment effects: a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsangi, Allen; Semakula, Daniel; Oxman, Andrew D; Austvoll-Dahlgren, Astrid; Oxman, Matt; Rosenbaum, Sarah; Morelli, Angela; Glenton, Claire; Lewin, Simon; Kaseje, Margaret; Chalmers, Iain; Fretheim, Atle; Ding, Yunpeng; Sewankambo, Nelson K

    2017-07-22

    Claims about what improves or harms our health are ubiquitous. People need to be able to assess the reliability of these claims. We aimed to evaluate an intervention designed to teach primary school children to assess claims about the effects of treatments (ie, any action intended to maintain or improve health). In this cluster-randomised controlled trial, we included primary schools in the central region of Uganda that taught year-5 children (aged 10-12 years). We excluded international schools, special needs schools for children with auditory and visual impairments, schools that had participated in user-testing and piloting of the resources, infant and nursery schools, adult education schools, and schools that were difficult for us to access in terms of travel time. We randomly allocated a representative sample of eligible schools to either an intervention or control group. Intervention schools received the Informed Health Choices primary school resources (textbooks, exercise books, and a teachers' guide). Teachers attended a 2 day introductory workshop and gave nine 80 min lessons during one school term. The lessons addressed 12 concepts essential to assessing claims about treatment effects and making informed health choices. We did not intervene in the control schools. The primary outcome, measured at the end of the school term, was the mean score on a test with two multiple-choice questions for each of the 12 concepts and the proportion of children with passing scores on the same test. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry, number PACTR201606001679337. Between April 11, 2016, and June 8, 2016, 2960 schools were assessed for eligibility; 2029 were eligible, and a random sample of 170 were invited to recruitment meetings. After recruitment meetings, 120 eligible schools consented and were randomly assigned to either the intervention group (n=60, 76 teachers and 6383 children) or control group (n=60, 67 teachers and 4430 children

  11. [Ovarian carcinoma: new prognostic and therapeutic viewpoints].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldhirsch, A; Joss, R; Greiner, R; Brunner, K W

    1980-11-01

    Some recently developed concepts concerning the management of ovarian cancer are discussed. Cytoreductive surgery to debulk the tumor to a minimum, even in those cases which were considered inoperable in the past, improves the chances for cure. Adjuvant radiotherapy or combination chemotherapy with new drugs have proved highly effective in inducing complete remission and potential cures in these patients. The definition and better understanding of prognostic criteria play a primary role in the selection of treatment. In designing the strategy for adequate treatment, the following points are of major importance: (1) exact definition of tumor spread as determined by accurate surgical staging; (2) histologic and cytologic grading; and (3) evaluation of response.

  12. Information and Informality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Magnus; Segerstéen, Solveig; Svensson, Cathrin

    2011-01-01

    leaders on the basis of their possession of reliable knowledge in technical as well as organizational domains. The informal leaders engaged in interpretation and brokering of information and knowledge, as well as in mediating strategic values and priorities on both formal and informal arenas. Informal...... leaders were thus seen to function on the level of the organization as a whole, and in cooperation with formal leaders. Drawing on existing theory of leadership in creative and professional contexts, this cooperation can be specified to concern task structuring. The informal leaders in our study...... contributed to task structuring through sensemaking activities, while formal leaders focused on aspects such as clarifying output expectations, providing feedback, project structure, and diversity....

  13. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Heesen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110 and their physicians (n = 6 and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. RESULTS: Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. CONCLUSION: While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic

  14. Prognostic significance of standardized uptake value on preoperative 18F-FDG PET/CT in patients with ampullary adenocarcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Hye Jin; Kang, Chang Moo; Lee, Woo Jung; Jo, Kwanhyeong; Lee, Jong Doo; Lee, Jae-Hoon; Ryu, Young Hoon

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) in patients with ampullary adenocarcinoma (AAC) after curative surgical resection. Fifty-two patients with AAC who had undergone 18 F-FDG PET/CT and subsequent curative resections were retrospectively enrolled. The maximum standardized uptake value (SUV max ) and tumor to background ratio (TBR) were measured on 18 F-FDG PET/CT in all patients. The prognostic significances of PET/CT parameters and clinicopathologic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses. Of the 52 patients, 19 (36.5 %) experienced tumor recurrence during the follow-up period and 18 (35.8 %) died. The 3-year RFS and OS were 62.3 and 61.5 %, respectively. Preoperative CA19-9 level, tumor differentiation, presence of lymph node metastasis, SUV max , and TBR were significant prognostic factors for both RFS and OS (p < 0.05) on univariate analyses, and patient age showed significance only for predicting RFS (p < 0.05). On multivariate analyses, SUV max and TBR were independent prognostic factors for RFS, and tumor differentiation, SUV max , and TBR were independent prognostic factors for OS. SUV max and TBR on preoperative 18 F-FDG PET/CT are independent prognostic factors for predicting RFS and OS in patients with AAC; patients with high SUV max (>4.80) or TBR (>1.75) had poor survival outcomes. The role of and indications for adjuvant therapy after curative resection of AAC are still unclear. 18 F-FDG uptake in the primary tumor could provide additive prognostic information for the decision-making process regarding adjuvant therapy. (orig.)

  15. Prognostic risk estimates of patients with multiple sclerosis and their physicians: comparison to an online analytical risk counseling tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesen, Christoph; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Nguyen, Franziska; Stellmann, Jan-Patrick; Kasper, Jürgen; Köpke, Sascha; Lederer, Christian; Neuhaus, Anneke; Daumer, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Prognostic counseling in multiple sclerosis (MS) is difficult because of the high variability of disease progression. Simultaneously, patients and physicians are increasingly confronted with making treatment decisions at an early stage, which requires taking individual prognoses into account to strike a good balance between benefits and harms of treatments. It is therefore important to understand how patients and physicians estimate prognostic risk, and whether and how these estimates can be improved. An online analytical processing (OLAP) tool based on pooled data from placebo cohorts of clinical trials offers short-term prognostic estimates that can be used for individual risk counseling. The aim of this study was to clarify if personalized prognostic information as presented by the OLAP tool is considered useful and meaningful by patients. Furthermore, we used the OLAP tool to evaluate patients' and physicians' risk estimates. Within this evaluation process we assessed short-time prognostic risk estimates of patients with MS (final n = 110) and their physicians (n = 6) and compared them with the estimates of OLAP. Patients rated the OLAP tool as understandable and acceptable, but to be only of moderate interest. It turned out that patients, physicians, and the OLAP tool ranked patients similarly regarding their risk of disease progression. Both patients' and physicians' estimates correlated most strongly with those disease covariates that the OLAP tool's estimates also correlated with most strongly. Exposure to the OLAP tool did not change patients' risk estimates. While the OLAP tool was rated understandable and acceptable, it was only of modest interest and did not change patients' prognostic estimates. The results suggest, however, that patients had some idea regarding their prognosis and which factors were most important in this regard. Future work with OLAP should assess long-term prognostic estimates and clarify its usefulness for patients and physicians

  16. Prognostic factors for recurrences in neck pain patients up to 1 year after chiropractic care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenfeld, Anke; Humphreys, B Kim; Swanenburg, Jaap; Peterson, Cynthia K

    2015-09-01

    Information about recurrence and prognostic factors is important for patients and practitioners to set realistic expectations about the chances of full recovery and to reduce patient anxiety and uncertainty. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to assess recurrence and prognostic factors for neck pain in a chiropractic patient population at 1 year from the start of the current episode. Within a prospective cohort study, 642 neck pain patients were recruited by chiropractors in Switzerland. After a course of chiropractic therapy, patients were followed up for 1 year regarding recurrence of neck pain. A logistic regression analysis was used to assess prognostic factors for recurrent neck pain. The independent variables age, pain medication usage, sex, work status, duration of complaint, previous episodes of neck pain and trauma onset, numerical rating scale, and Bournemouth questionnaire for neck pain were analyzed. Prognostic factors that have been identified in previous studies to influence recovery of neck pain are psychologic distress, poor general health at baseline, and a previous history of pain elsewhere. Five hundred forty five patients (341 females), with a mean age of 42.1 years (SD, 13.1) completed the 1-year follow-up period. Fifty-four participants (11%) were identified as "recurrent." Prognostic factors associated with recurrent neck pain were previous episodes of neck pain and increasing age. The results of this study suggest that recurrence of neck pain within 1 year after chiropractic intervention in Swiss chiropractic patients presenting from varied onsets is low. This study found preliminary findings that older age and a previous episode of neck may be useful predictors of neck pain recurrence within 1 year. Copyright © 2015 National University of Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Independent Prognostic Value of Stroke Volume Index in Patients With Immunoglobulin Light Chain Amyloidosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-05-01

    Heart involvement is the most important prognostic determinant in AL amyloidosis patients. Echocardiography is a cornerstone for the diagnosis and provides important prognostic information. We studied 754 patients with AL amyloidosis who underwent echocardiographic assessment at the Mayo Clinic, including a Doppler-derived measurement of stroke volume (SV) within 30 days of their diagnosis to explore the prognostic role of echocardiographic variables in the context of a well-established soluble cardiac biomarker staging system. Reproducibility of SV, myocardial contraction fraction, and left ventricular strain was assessed in a separate, yet comparable, study cohort of 150 patients from the Pavia Amyloidosis Center. The echocardiographic measures most predictive for overall survival were SV index <33 mL/min, myocardial contraction fraction <34%, and cardiac index <2.4 L/min/m 2 with respective hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 2.95 (2.37-3.66), 2.36 (1.96-2.85), and 2.32 (1.91-2.80). For the subset that had left ventricular strain performed, the prognostic cut point was -14% (hazard ratios, 2.70; 95% confidence intervals, 1.84-3.96). Each parameter was independent of systolic blood pressure, Mayo staging system (NT-proBNP [N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide] and troponin), and ejection fraction on multivariable analysis. Simple predictive models for survival, including biomarker staging along with SV index or left ventricular strain, were generated. SV index prognostic performance was similar to left ventricular strain in predicting survival in AL amyloidosis, independently of biomarker staging. Because SV index is routinely calculated and widely available, it could serve as the preferred echocardiographic measure to predict outcomes in AL amyloidosis patients. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

  18. The reliability of commonly used electrophysiology measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, K E; Lohse, K R; Mayer, I M S; Strigaro, G; Desikan, M; Casula, E P; Meunier, S; Popa, T; Lamy, J-C; Odish, O; Leavitt, B R; Durr, A; Roos, R A C; Tabrizi, S J; Rothwell, J C; Boyd, L A; Orth, M

    Electrophysiological measures can help understand brain function both in healthy individuals and in the context of a disease. Given the amount of information that can be extracted from these measures and their frequent use, it is essential to know more about their inherent reliability. To understand the reliability of electrophysiology measures in healthy individuals. We hypothesized that measures of threshold and latency would be the most reliable and least susceptible to methodological differences between study sites. Somatosensory evoked potentials from 112 control participants; long-latency reflexes, transcranial magnetic stimulation with resting and active motor thresholds, motor evoked potential latencies, input/output curves, and short-latency sensory afferent inhibition and facilitation from 84 controls were collected at 3 visits over 24 months at 4 Track-On HD study sites. Reliability was assessed using intra-class correlation coefficients for absolute agreement, and the effects of reliability on statistical power are demonstrated for different sample sizes and study designs. Measures quantifying latencies, thresholds, and evoked responses at high stimulator intensities had the highest reliability, and required the smallest sample sizes to adequately power a study. Very few between-site differences were detected. Reliability and susceptibility to between-site differences should be evaluated for electrophysiological measures before including them in study designs. Levels of reliability vary substantially across electrophysiological measures, though there are few between-site differences. To address this, reliability should be used in conjunction with theoretical calculations to inform sample size and ensure studies are adequately powered to detect true change in measures of interest. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Study of Updating Initiating Event Frequency using Prognostics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyeonmin; Lee, Sang-Hwan; Park, Jun-seok; Kim, Hyungdae; Chang, Yoon-Suk; Heo, Gyunyoung

    2014-01-01

    The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) model enables to find the relative priority of accident scenarios, weak points in achieving accident prevention or mitigation, and insights to improve those vulnerabilities. Thus, PSA consider realistic calculation for precise and confidence results. However, PSA model still 'conservative' aspects in the procedures of developing a PSA model. One of the sources for the conservatism is caused by the assumption of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Recently, Surveillance, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (SDP) is a growing trend in applying space and aviation systems in particular. Furthermore, a study dealing with the applicable areas and state-of-the-art status of the SDP in nuclear industry was published. SDP utilizing massive database and information technology among such enabling techniques is worthwhile to be highlighted in terms of the capability of alleviating the conservatism in the conventional PSA. This paper review the concept of integrating PSA and SDP and suggest the updated methodology of Initiating Event (IE) using prognostics. For more detailed, we focus on IE of the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) considering tube degradation. This paper is additional research of previous our suggested the research. In this paper, the concept of integrating PSA and SDP are suggested. Prognostics algorithms in SDP are applied at IE, Bes in the Level 1 PSA. As an example, updating SGTR IE and its ageing were considered. Tube ageing were analyzed by using PASTA and Monte Carlo method. After analyzing the tube ageing, conventional SGTR IE were updated by using Bayesian approach. The studied method can help to cover the static and conservatism in PSA

  20. Study of Updating Initiating Event Frequency using Prognostics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hyeonmin; Lee, Sang-Hwan; Park, Jun-seok; Kim, Hyungdae; Chang, Yoon-Suk; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee Univ., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    The Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) model enables to find the relative priority of accident scenarios, weak points in achieving accident prevention or mitigation, and insights to improve those vulnerabilities. Thus, PSA consider realistic calculation for precise and confidence results. However, PSA model still 'conservative' aspects in the procedures of developing a PSA model. One of the sources for the conservatism is caused by the assumption of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Recently, Surveillance, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (SDP) is a growing trend in applying space and aviation systems in particular. Furthermore, a study dealing with the applicable areas and state-of-the-art status of the SDP in nuclear industry was published. SDP utilizing massive database and information technology among such enabling techniques is worthwhile to be highlighted in terms of the capability of alleviating the conservatism in the conventional PSA. This paper review the concept of integrating PSA and SDP and suggest the updated methodology of Initiating Event (IE) using prognostics. For more detailed, we focus on IE of the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) considering tube degradation. This paper is additional research of previous our suggested the research. In this paper, the concept of integrating PSA and SDP are suggested. Prognostics algorithms in SDP are applied at IE, Bes in the Level 1 PSA. As an example, updating SGTR IE and its ageing were considered. Tube ageing were analyzed by using PASTA and Monte Carlo method. After analyzing the tube ageing, conventional SGTR IE were updated by using Bayesian approach. The studied method can help to cover the static and conservatism in PSA.