Sample records for reliable prognostic information

  1. Finding Reliable Health Information Online

    ... at NHGRI About About the Institute Budget and Financial Information Divisions Director's Page How to Contact Us Institute ... una búsqueda saludable en Internet Finding Reliable Health Information Online As Internet users quickly discover, an enormous amount of health information ...

  2. Reliability Management for Information System

    李睿; 俞涛; 刘明伦


    An integrated intelligent management is presented to help organizations manage many heterogeneous resources in their information system. A general architecture of management for information system reliability is proposed, and the architecture from two aspects, process model and hierarchical model, described. Data mining techniques are used in data analysis. A data analysis system applicable to real-time data analysis is developed by improved data mining on the critical processes. The framework of the integrated management for information system reliability based on real-time data mining is illustrated, and the development of integrated and intelligent management of information system discussed.

  3. Diagnostic Reasoning using Prognostic Information for Unmanned Aerial Systems

    Schumann, Johann; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Kulkarni, Chetan


    With increasing popularity of unmanned aircraft, continuous monitoring of their systems, software, and health status is becoming more and more important to ensure safe, correct, and efficient operation and fulfillment of missions. The paper presents integration of prognosis models and prognostic information with the R2U2 (REALIZABLE, RESPONSIVE, and UNOBTRUSIVE Unit) monitoring and diagnosis framework. This integration makes available statistically reliable health information predictions of the future at a much earlier time to enable autonomous decision making. The prognostic information can be used in the R2U2 model to improve diagnostic accuracy and enable decisions to be made at the present time to deal with events in the future. This will be an advancement over the current state of the art, where temporal logic observers can only do such valuation at the end of the time interval. Usefulness and effectiveness of this integrated diagnostics and prognostics framework was demonstrated using simulation experiments with the NASA Dragon Eye electric unmanned aircraft.

  4. Finding reliable information about vaccines.

    Pineda, Diego; Myers, Martin G


    Misinformation about vaccines confuses parents who may delay or refuse vaccines for their children, which places them and others at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases. Many parents do not understand the risks and severity of these diseases but also are unaware that they are uninformed. There are a number of favorable factors available for educating parents about these diseases, their prevention, and how to counter misinformation: most parents are seeking a trusting health care relationship; they want more information; they appreciate guidance; and they are looking for means to validate the information that they find. These factors represent opportunities to enhance confidence in immunization programs by providing parents with the tools that they need.

  5. Reliability of "Google" for obtaining medical information

    Mihir Kothari


    Full Text Available Internet is used by many patients to obtain relevant medical information. We assessed the impact of "Google" search on the knowledge of the parents whose ward suffered from squint. In 21 consecutive patients, the "Google" search improved the mean score of the correct answers from 47% to 62%. We found that "Google" search was useful and reliable source of information for the patients with regards to the disease etiopathogenesis and the problems caused by the disease. The internet-based information, however, was incomplete and not reliable with regards to the disease treatment.

  6. Prognostics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has received considerable attention recently as an emerging sub-discipline within SHM. Prognosis is here strictly defined as “predicting the time at...

  7. Prognostication of information exchange efficiency in operator’s group

    V. O. Bychkovskyi


    Full Text Available Introduction. The function load in modern systems distributes often between several operators. Prognostication of information exchange efficiency between operators is actual problem. Problem statement. The problem solving is possible with distinguishing the individual operator and all other operators. In such situation it is possible to carry out the prognosis procedure on macroscopic level. Theoretical results. Parities between indicators of efficiency and relative errors of operators are established. Laws of operator relative error changes are defined. Dependence of the operator error relations in the beginning and in the end of prognostication is analyzed. Time of task performance in view with the provided requirements to a relative error of one or other operators is defined. It is shown that prognostication procedure provides definition of a necessary parity of operator relative errors in the beginning of their work for maintenance of their certain parity through set time at the set parameters which consider constants of increase efficiency of work. Conclusion. The results give the chance to pass from the static description and an estimation of work efficiency of operator’s group to the dynamic description and formation of look-ahead model which considers processes of a mutual information exchange between operators.

  8. Strategic Path Reliability in Information Networks

    Kannan, Rajgopal; Sarangi, Sudipta; Iyengar, Sundaraja Sitharama


    We consider a model of an information network where nodes can fail and transmission of information is costly. The formation of paths in such networks is modeled as the Nash equilibrium of an N player routing game. The task of obtaining this equilibrium is shown to be NP-Hard. We derive analytical results to identify conditions under which the equilibrium path is congruent to well known paths such as the most reliable or cheapest neighbor path. The issue of characterizing off-equilibrium paths...

  9. Reliability data update using condition monitoring and prognostics in probabilistic safety assessment

    Hyeonmin Kim


    Full Text Available Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA has had a significant role in quantitative decision-making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs. Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still “conservative” aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP, utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time- and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs and probability of basic events (BEs. Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1 how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2 how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF depending on operational conditions.

  10. Reliability data update using condition monitoring and prognostics in probabilistic safety assessment

    Kim, Hyeon Min; Lee, Sang Hwan; Park, Jun Seok; Kim, Hyung Dae; Chang, Yoon Suk; Heo, Gyun Young [Dept. of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)


    Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) has had a significant role in quantitative decision making by finding design and operational vulnerabilities and evaluating cost-benefit in improving such weak points. In particular, it has been widely used as the core methodology for risk-informed applications (RIAs). Even though the nature of PSA seeks realistic results, there are still 'conservative' aspects. One of the sources for the conservatism is the assumptions of safety analysis and the estimation of failure frequency. Surveillance, diagnosis, and prognosis (SDP), utilizing massive databases and information technology, is worth highlighting in terms of its capability for alleviating the conservatism in conventional PSA. This article provides enabling techniques to solidify a method to provide time and condition-dependent risks by integrating a conventional PSA model with condition monitoring and prognostics techniques. We will discuss how to integrate the results with frequency of initiating events (IEs) and probability of basic events (BEs). Two illustrative examples will be introduced: (1) how the failure probability of a passive system can be evaluated under different plant conditions and (2) how the IE frequency for a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) can be updated in terms of operating time. We expect that the proposed model can take a role of annunciator to show the variation of core damage frequency (CDF) depending on operational conditions.

  11. Calretinin expression as a reliable prognostic marker in different molecular subtypes of breast carcinoma

    Mayada Saad Farrag


    Full Text Available Background: Calretinin (CR, a known mesothelial marker, is expressed in both epithelial and mesenchymal malignancies including breast cancer. Aims: We aimed to measure the frequency of CR expression in correlation with other clinicopathological parameters of different molecular subtypes of invasive breast carcinoma and to study its prognostic implications in this common cancer.Study Design: Tissue microarrays were constructed from 225 tissue samples of breast carcinoma cases. Subjects and Methods: Immunostaining for CR in addition to estrogen receptors, progesterone receptors, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2, epidermal growth factor receptor, CK5/6, and Ki-67 for molecular subtyping. Statistical Analysis Used: Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were done using SPSS 18.0 software (IBM Inc.. Survival data were analyzed using Kaplan–Meier test, Log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazard models. Results: Cases of invasive breast carcinomas with different grades were classified into 84 luminal A, 45 luminal B, 27 HER2 positive, 40 basal-like, and 29 unclassified. High CR expression was associated with tumors of high grade (P < 0.0001, high locoregional recurrence (P = 0.005, hormonal receptors negative, and high Ki-67 indices. They frequently display a basal-like phenotype (70%, P < 0.0001, HER2 (59.3%, and luminal B (33.3% tumors compared to luminal A (9.5% and unclassified subtypes (17.2%. Moreover, it is associated with poor overall patient survival (P = 0.034, but it does not affect disease-free survival. Conclusions: Calretinin could be a reliable predictor marker of adverse prognosis in breast cancer.

  12. Empiric reliability of diagnostic and prognostic estimations of physical standards of children, going in for sports.

    Zaporozhanov V.A.


    Full Text Available In the conditions of sporting-pedagogical practices objective estimation of potential possibilities gettings busy already on the initial stages of long-term preparation examined as one of issues of the day. The proper quantitative information allows to individualize preparation of gettings in obedience to requirements to the guided processes busy. Research purpose - logically and metrical to rotin expedience of metrical method of calculations of reliability of results of the control measurings, in-use for diagnostics of psychophysical fitness and prognosis of growth of trade gettings busy in the select type of sport. Material and methods. Analysed the results of the control measurings on four indexes of psychophysical preparedness and estimation of experts of fitness 24th gettings busy composition of children of gymnastic school. The results of initial and final inspection of gymnasts on the same control tests processed the method of mathematical statistics. Expected the metrical estimations of reliability of measurings is stability, co-ordination and informing of control information for current diagnostics and prognosis of sporting possibilities inspected. Results. Expedience of the use in these aims of metrical operations of calculation of complex estimation of the psychophysical state of gettings busy is metrology grounded. Conclusions. Research results confirm expedience of calculation of complex estimation of psychophysical features gettings busy for diagnostics of fitness in the select type of sport and trade prognosis on the subsequent stages of preparation.

  13. Are neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and platelet/lymphocyte ratio reliable parameters as prognostic indicators in malignant mesothelioma?

    Tural Onur, Seda; Sokucu, Sinem Nedime; Dalar, Levent; Iliaz, Sinem; Kara, Kaan; Buyukkale, Songül; Altin, Sedat


    Background Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is an aggressive asbestos-related pleural tumor. The incidence is increasing with intensive use of asbestos in developing countries. We need an easily accessible, inexpensive, and reliable method for determining the low survival time prognosis of this tumor. The aim of our study was to investigate the viability of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR) as prognostic indicators in MM. Patients and methods Thirty-six patients with MM, whose histopathologic diagnosis and follow-up were performed by our clinic and whose complete archive data were accessible, were included in this retrospective study. The patients’ histopathologic disease types and stages, complete blood count parameters at diagnosis, and survival were recorded. Results Eighteen of the patients with MM were male and the remaining 18 of them were female; the average follow-up period was 24.83±3.61 months. The PLR levels of the patients were statistically significant (P<0.05). The NLR and PLR area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values were 0.559 and 0.749, respectively (P=0.631 and P=0.044, respectively). Conclusion PLR was a significant prognostic indicator of MM at diagnosis on complete blood count parameters; however, NLR was not a significant prognostic indicator. A large number of prospective studies are needed to prove the reliability of the parameters. PMID:27217757

  14. Management Control for Reliable Financial Information

    Victoria María Antonieta Martín Granados


    Full Text Available The financial information is the document that the administration of a juridical entity issues to know his financial situation. The financial information is useful and confiable for the users of the financial information when this has been prepared under conditions of certainty. This certainty is provided by the administration when it establishes political and procedures of internal control, as well as the surveillance in the accomplishment of the internal control. This control incides in the financial information since it is inherent to the operative flow and extends itself in relevant information, veracious and comparable. This is important for users of the financial information, due to the fact that they take timely and objective decisions.

  15. Reliability of information on the Internet : Some distinctions

    Vedder, A.H.; Wachbroit, R.S.


    We identify and clarify some distinctions we believe are useful in establishing the reliability of information on the Internet. We begin by examining some of the salient features of information that go into the determination of reliability. In so doing, we argue that we need to distinguish content a

  16. Is spatial information in ICT data reliable?

    Lenormand, Maxime; Barthelemy, Marc; Ramasco, José J


    An increasing number of human activities are studied using data produced by individuals' ICT devices. In particular, when ICT data contain spatial information, they represent an invaluable source for analyzing urban dynamics. However, there have been relatively few contributions investigating the robustness of this type of results against fluctuations of data characteristics. Here, we present a stability analysis of higher-level information extracted from mobile phone data passively produced during an entire year by 9 million individuals in Senegal. We focus on two information-retrieval tasks: (a) the identification of land use in the region of Dakar from the temporal rhythms of the communication activity; (b) the identification of home and work locations of anonymized individuals, which enable to construct Origin-Destination (OD) matrices of commuting flows. Our analysis reveal that the uncertainty of results highly depends on the sample size, the scale and the period of the year at which the data were gathe...

  17. Questioning reliability assessments of health information on social media

    Dalmer, Nicole K.


    This narrative review examines assessments of the reliability of online health information retrieved through social media to ascertain whether health information accessed or disseminated through social media should be evaluated differently than other online health information. Several medical, library and information science, and interdisciplinary databases were searched using terms relating to social media, reliability, and health information. While social media’s increasing role in health information consumption is recognized, studies are dominated by investigations of traditional (i.e., non-social media) sites. To more richly assess constructions of reliability when using social media for health information, future research must focus on health consumers’ unique contexts, virtual relationships, and degrees of trust within their social networks. PMID:28096748

  18. Questioning reliability assessments of health information on social media.

    Dalmer, Nicole K


    This narrative review examines assessments of the reliability of online health information retrieved through social media to ascertain whether health information accessed or disseminated through social media should be evaluated differently than other online health information. Several medical, library and information science, and interdisciplinary databases were searched using terms relating to social media, reliability, and health information. While social media's increasing role in health information consumption is recognized, studies are dominated by investigations of traditional (i.e., non-social media) sites. To more richly assess constructions of reliability when using social media for health information, future research must focus on health consumers' unique contexts, virtual relationships, and degrees of trust within their social networks.

  19. By-product information can stabilize the reliability of communication.

    Schaefer, H Martin; Ruxton, G D


    Although communication underpins many biological processes, its function and basic definition remain contentious. In particular, researchers have debated whether information should be an integral part of a definition of communication and how it remains reliable. So far the handicap principle, assuming signal costs to stabilize reliable communication, has been the predominant paradigm in the study of animal communication. The role of by-product information produced by mechanisms other than the communicative interaction has been neglected in the debate on signal reliability. We argue that by-product information is common and that it provides the starting point for ritualization as the process of the evolution of communication. Second, by-product information remains unchanged during ritualization and enforces reliable communication by restricting the options for manipulation and cheating. Third, this perspective changes the focus of research on communication from studying signal costs to studying the costs of cheating. It can thus explain the reliability of signalling in many communication systems that do not rely on handicaps. We emphasize that communication can often be informative but that the evolution of communication does not cause the evolution of information because by-product information often predates and stimulates the evolution of communication. Communication is thus a consequence but not a cause of reliability. Communication is the interplay of inadvertent, informative traits and evolved traits that increase the stimulation and perception of perceivers. Viewing communication as a complex of inadvertent and derived traits facilitates understanding of the selective pressures shaping communication and those shaping information and its reliability. This viewpoint further contributes to resolving the current controversy on the role of information in communication.

  20. Prognostic information in administrative co-morbidity data following coronary artery bypass grafting

    Abildstrøm, Steen Zabell; Hvelplund, Anders; Rasmussen, Søren


    The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic information obtainable from administrative data with respect to 30-day mortality following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and to compare it with the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) recorded in a clinical...

  1. Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

    Liu Junqiang; Zhang Malan; Zuo Hongfu; Xie Jiwei


    Remaining useful life (RUL) prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform condition-based maintenance (CBM) for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades, research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the spe-cific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve, prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algo-rithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multi-ple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.

  2. Remaining useful life prognostics for aeroengine based on superstatistics and information fusion

    Liu Junqiang


    Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL prognostics is a fundamental premise to perform condition-based maintenance (CBM for a system subject to performance degradation. Over the past decades, research has been conducted in RUL prognostics for aeroengine. However, most of the prognostics technologies and methods simply base on single parameter, making it hard to demonstrate the specific characteristics of its degradation. To solve such problems, this paper proposes a novel approach to predict RUL by means of superstatistics and information fusion. The performance degradation evolution of the engine is modeled by fusing multiple monitoring parameters, which manifest non-stationary characteristics while degrading. With the obtained degradation curve, prognostics model can be established by state-space method, and then RUL can be estimated when the time-varying parameters of the model are predicted and updated through Kalman filtering algorithm. By this method, the non-stationary degradation of each parameter is represented, and multiple monitoring parameters are incorporated, both contributing to the final prognostics. A case study shows that this approach enables satisfactory prediction evolution and achieves a markedly better prognosis of RUL.

  3. Information about robustness, reliability and safety in early design phases

    Marini, Vinicius Kaster

    This thesis is motivated by the need for support in considerations of robustness, reliability and safety during early design phases. The thesis deals with the question of how to codify and communicate failures and hazards, and devises measures against these. Current methods to robustness, reliabi......This thesis is motivated by the need for support in considerations of robustness, reliability and safety during early design phases. The thesis deals with the question of how to codify and communicate failures and hazards, and devises measures against these. Current methods to robustness......, reliability and safety reviewed have shortcomings including the complexity of using them and dependence on expert input for mitigating uncertainty and ambiguity among solution alternatives. This research is carried out using case studies: a pilot case to assess information requirements from reliability...... methods, and an industrial case to assess how the use of information about robustness, reliability and safety as practised by current methods influences concept development. Current methods cannot be used in early design phases due to their dependence on detailed design information for the identification...

  4. The Reliability of Informal Reading Inventories: What Has Changed?

    Nilsson, Nina L.


    Over time, criticisms related to the technical rigor of informal reading inventories (IRIs) have led many to question using these assessment instruments for high- or low-stakes purposes. In this article, I examine reliability evidence reported in 11 new and updated IRIs and make comparisons with Spector's earlier analysis that revealed fewer…

  5. Under Construction: Reviewing and Producing Information Reliability on the Web

    S.A. Adams (Samantha)


    textabstractSince 1995, medical professionals, governments and independent organizations have been developing special tools to help lay-persons find websites that are guaranteed to give only reliable medical or health-related information. However, as these different actors also recognize, such a sim

  6. Can metabolomics in addition to genomics add to prognostic and predictive information in breast cancer?

    Howell, Anthony


    Genomic data from breast cancers provide additional prognostic and predictive information that is beginning to be used for patient management. The question arises whether additional information derived from other 'omic' approaches such as metabolomics can provide additional information. In an article published this month in BMC Cancer, Borgan et al. add metabolomic information to genomic measures in breast tumours and demonstrate, for the first time, that it may be possible to further define subgroups of patients which could be of value clinically. See research article:

  7. Reliability based design optimization using akaike information criterion for discrete information

    Lim, Woochul; Lee, Tae Hee [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of)


    Reliability based design optimization (RBDO) can be used to determine the reliability of a system by means of probabilistic design criteria, i.e., the possibility of failure considering stochastic features of design variables and input parameters. To assure these criteria, various reliability analysis methods have been developed. Most of these methods assume that distribution functions are continuous. However, in real problems, because real data is often discrete in form, it is important to estimate the distributions for discrete information during reliability analysis. In this study, we employ the Akaike information criterion (AIC) method for reliability analysis to determine the best estimated distribution for discrete information and we suggest an RBDO method using AIC. Mathematical and engineering examples are illustrated to verify the proposed method.

  8. Tumor-Associated Macrophages Provide Significant Prognostic Information in Urothelial Bladder Cancer.

    Minna M Boström

    Full Text Available Inflammation is an important feature of carcinogenesis. Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs can be associated with either poor or improved prognosis, depending on their properties and polarization. Current knowledge of the prognostic significance of TAMs in bladder cancer is limited and was investigated in this study. We analyzed 184 urothelial bladder cancer patients undergoing transurethral resection of a bladder tumor or radical cystectomy. CD68 (pan-macrophage marker, MAC387 (polarized towards type 1 macrophages, and CLEVER-1/Stabilin-1 (type 2 macrophages and lymphatic/blood vessels were detected immunohistochemically. The median follow-up time was 6.0 years. High macrophage counts associated with a higher pT category and grade. Among patients undergoing transurethral resection, all studied markers apart from CLEVER-1/Stabilin-1 were associated with increased risk of progression and poorer disease-specific and overall survival in univariate analyses. High levels of two macrophage markers (CD68/MAC387+/+ or CD68/CLEVER-1+/+ groups had an independent prognostic role after transurethral resection in multivariate analyses. In the cystectomy cohort, MAC387, alone and in combination with CD68, was associated with poorer survival in univariate analyses, but none of the markers were independent predictors of outcome in multivariate analyses. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that macrophage phenotypes provide significant independent prognostic information, particularly in bladder cancers undergoing transurethral resection.

  9. Enhanced reliable transmission control protocol for spatial information networks

    Qin, Zhihong; Zhang, Juan; Wang, Junfeng


    Satellites channels are generally featured by high bit error rate (BER), long propagation delay, large bandwidth-delay product (BDP) and so on. This tends to make the traditional TCP suffer from serious performance degradation in satellite networks. Therefore, a TCP-compatible reliable transmission protocol (i.e., TCP-AX) for spatial information networks is proposed in this paper. And a bandwidth probing mechanism is designed to distinguish network congestion and link error. Simulation results show that TCP-AX has better performance than some popular enhanced TCP protocols.

  10. Evaluation of Information Requirements of Reliability Methods in Engineering Design

    Marini, Vinicius Kaster; Restrepo-Giraldo, John Dairo; Ahmed-Kristensen, Saeema


    This paper aims to characterize the information needed to perform methods for robustness and reliability, and verify their applicability to early design stages. Several methods were evaluated on their support to synthesis in engineering design. Of those methods, FMEA, FTA and HAZOP were selected...... on their insight on design risks and wide spread application. A pilot case study has been performed with a washing machine in using these methods to assess design risks, following a reverse engineering approach. The study has shown the methods can be initiated at early design stages, but cannot be concluded...

  11. Tradeoffs for reliable quantum information storage in 2D systems

    Bravyi, Sergey; Terhal, Barbara


    We ask whether there are fundamental limits on storing quantum information reliably in a bounded volume of space. To investigate this question, we study quantum error correcting codes specified by geometrically local commuting constraints on a 2D lattice of finite-dimensional quantum particles. For these 2D systems, we derive a tradeoff between the number of encoded qubits k, the distance of the code d, and the number of particles n. It is shown that kd^2=O(n) where the coefficient in O(n) depends only on the locality of the constraints and dimension of the Hilbert spaces describing individual particles. We show that the analogous tradeoff for the classical information storage is k\\sqrt{d} =O(n).

  12. Toxoplasmosis and pregnancy: Reliability of internet sources of information

    Bobić Branko


    , despite numerous websites, only a few offer reliable information to the Serbian (or Croat speaking community, and none present complete and accurate information relevant to pregnant women. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 41019

  13. Using image analysis as a tool for assessment of prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancer: How reliable is it?

    Mark C Lloyd


    Full Text Available Background : Estrogen receptor (ER, progesterone receptor (PR and human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2 are important and well-established prognostic and predictive biomarkers for breast cancers and routinely tested on patient′s tumor samples by immunohistochemical (IHC study. The accuracy of these test results has substantial impact on patient management. A critical factor that contributes to the result is the interpretation (scoring of IHC. This study investigates how computerized image analysis can play a role in a reliable scoring, and identifies potential pitfalls with common methods. Materials and Methods : Whole slide images of 33 invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC (10 ER and 23 HER2 were scored by pathologist under the light microscope and confirmed by another pathologist. The HER2 results were additionally confirmed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH. The scoring criteria were adherent to the guidelines recommended by the American Society of Clinical Oncology/College of American Pathologists. Whole slide stains were then scored by commercially available image analysis algorithms from Definiens (Munich, Germany and Aperio Technologies (Vista, CA, USA. Each algorithm was modified specifically for each marker and tissue. The results were compared with the semi-quantitative manual scoring, which was considered the gold standard in this study. Results : For HER2 positive group, each algorithm scored 23/23 cases within the range established by the pathologist. For ER, both algorithms scored 10/10 cases within range. The performance of each algorithm varies somewhat from the percentage of staining as compared to the pathologist′s reading. Conclusions : Commercially available computerized image analysis can be useful in the evaluation of ER and HER2 IHC results. In order to achieve accurate results either manual pathologist region selection is necessary, or an automated region selection tool must be employed. Specificity can

  14. Cerebral venous circulatory disturbance as an informative prognostic marker for neonatal hemorrhagic stroke

    Semyachkina-Glushkovskaya, Oxana; Pavlov, Alexey; Navolokin, Nikita; Lychagov, Vladislav; Abdurashitov, Arkady; Zinchenko, Ekaterina; Gekaluk, Artemiy; Zhu, Dan; Shi, Rui; Luo, Qingming; Tuchin, Valery


    Neonatal hemorrhagic stroke (NHS) is a major problem of future generation's health due to the high rate of death and cognitive disability of newborns after NHS. The incidence of NHS in neonates cannot be predicted by standard diagnostic methods. Therefore, the identification of prognostic markers of NHS is crucial. There is evidence that stress-related alterations of cerebral blood flow (CBF) may contribute to NHS. Here, we assessed the stroke-associated CBF abnormalities for high prognosis of NHS using a new model of NHS induced by sound stress in the pre- and post-stroke state. With this aim, we used interdisciplinary methods such as a histological assay of brain tissues, laser speckle contrast imaging and Doppler coherent tomography to monitor cerebral circulation. Our results suggest that the venous stasis with such symptoms as progressive relaxation of cerebral veins, decrease the velocity of blood flow in them are prognostic markers for a risk of NHS and are an informative platform for a future study of corrections of cerebral venous circulatory disturbance related to NHS.

  15. Reviewing Reliability and Validity of Information for University Educational Evaluation

    Otsuka, Yusaku

    To better utilize evaluations in higher education, it is necessary to share the methods of reviewing reliability and validity of examination scores and grades, and to accumulate and share data for confirming results. Before the GPA system is first introduced into a university or college, the reliability of examination scores and grades, especially for essay examinations, must be assured. Validity is a complicated concept, so should be assured in various ways, including using professional audits, theoretical models, and statistical data analysis. Because individual students and teachers are continually improving, using evaluations to appraise their progress is not always compatible with using evaluations in appraising the implementation of accountability in various departments or the university overall. To better utilize evaluations and improve higher education, evaluations should be integrated into the current system by sharing the vision of an academic learning community and promoting interaction between students and teachers based on sufficiently reliable and validated evaluation tools.

  16. Toward Obtaining Reliable Particulate Air Quality Information from Satellites

    Strawa, A. W.; Chatfield, R. B.; Legg, M.; Esswein, R.; Justice, E.


    Air quality agencies use ground sites to monitor air quality, providing accurate information at particular points. Using measurements from satellite imagery has the potential to provide air quality information in a timely manner with better spatial resolution and at a lower cost that can also useful for model validation. While previous studies show acceptable correlations between Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) derived from MODIS and surface Particulate Matter (PM) measurements on the eastern US, the data do not correlate well in the western US (Al-Saadi et al., 2005; Engle-Cox et al., 2004) . This paper seeks to improve the AOD-PM correlations by using advanced statistical analysis techniques. Our study area is the San Joaquin Valley in California because air quality in this region has failed to meet state and federal attainment standards for PM for the past several years. A previous investigation found good correlation of the AOD values between MODIS, MISR and AERONET, but poor correlations (R2 ~ 0.02) between satellite-based AOD and surface PM2.5 measurements. PM2.5 measurements correlated somewhat better (R2 ~ 0.18) with MODIS-derived AOD using the Deep Blue surface reflectance algorithm (Hsu et al., 2006) rather than the standard MODIS algorithm. This level of correlation is not adequate for reliable air quality measurements. Pelletier et al. (2007) used generalized additive models (GAMs) and meteorological data to improve the correlation between PM and AERONET AOD in western Europe. Additive models are more flexible than linear models and the functional relationships can be plotted to give a sense of the relationship between the predictor and the response. In this paper we use GAMs to improve surface PM2.5 to MODIS-AOD correlations. For example, we achieve an R2 ~ 0.44 using a GAM that includes the Deep Blue AOD, and day of year as parameters. Including NOx observations, improves the R2 ~ 0.64. Surprisingly Ångström exponent did not prove to be a significant

  17. Design for reliability information and computer-based systems

    Bauer, Eric


    "System reliability, availability and robustness are often not well understood by system architects, engineers and developers. They often don't understand what drives customer's availability expectations, how to frame verifiable availability/robustness requirements, how to manage and budget availability/robustness, how to methodically architect and design systems that meet robustness requirements, and so on. The book takes a very pragmatic approach of framing reliability and robustness as a functional aspect of a system so that architects, designers, developers and testers can address it as a concrete, functional attribute of a system, rather than an abstract, non-functional notion"--Provided by publisher.

  18. Technical information report: Plasma melter operation, reliability, and maintenance analysis

    Hendrickson, D.W. [ed.


    This document provides a technical report of operability, reliability, and maintenance of a plasma melter for low-level waste vitrification, in support of the Hanford Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Low-Level Waste (LLW) Vitrification Program. A process description is provided that minimizes maintenance and downtime and includes material and energy balances, equipment sizes and arrangement, startup/operation/maintence/shutdown cycle descriptions, and basis for scale-up to a 200 metric ton/day production facility. Operational requirements are provided including utilities, feeds, labor, and maintenance. Equipment reliability estimates and maintenance requirements are provided which includes a list of failure modes, responses, and consequences.

  19. Regional Longitudinal Myocardial Deformation Provides Incremental Prognostic Information in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

    Tor Biering-Sørensen

    Full Text Available Global longitudinal systolic strain (GLS has recently been demonstrated to be a superior prognosticator to conventional echocardiographic measures in patients after myocardial infarction (MI. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of regional longitudinal myocardial deformation in comparison to GLS, conventional echocardiography and clinical information.In total 391 patients were admitted with ST-Segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI, treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention and subsequently examined by echocardiography. All patients were examined by tissue Doppler imaging (TDI and two-dimensional strain echocardiography (2DSE.During a median-follow-up of 5.3 (IQR 2.5-6.1 years the primary endpoint (death, heart failure or a new MI was reached by 145 (38.9% patients. After adjustment for significant confounders (including conventional echocardiographic parameters and culprit lesion, reduced longitudinal performance in the anterior septal and inferior myocardial regions (but not GLS remained independent predictors of the combined outcome. Furthermore, inferior myocardial longitudinal deformation provided incremental prognostic information to clinical and conventional echocardiographic information (Harrell's c-statistics: 0.63 vs. 0.67, p = 0.032. In addition, impaired longitudinal deformation outside the culprit lesion perfusion region was significantly associated with an adverse outcome (p<0.05 for all deformation parameters.Regional longitudinal myocardial deformation measures, regardless if determined by TDI or 2DSE, are superior prognosticators to GLS. In addition, impaired longitudinal deformation in the inferior myocardial segment provides prognostic information over and above clinical and conventional echocardiographic risk factors. Furthermore, impaired longitudinal deformation outside the culprit lesion perfusion region seems to be a paramount marker of adverse outcome.

  20. Reliability of (18)F-FDG PET Metabolic Parameters Derived Using Simultaneous PET/MRI and Correlation With Prognostic Factors of Invasive Ductal Carcinoma: A Feasibility Study.

    Jena, Amarnath; Taneja, Sangeeta; Singh, Aru; Negi, Pradeep; Sarin, Ramesh; Das, Pratap K; Singhal, Manish


    The objective of our study was to correlate semiquantitative PET parameters-standardized uptake value (SUV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG)-derived in simultaneous PET/MRI using MRI-based attenuation correction with clinical and histopathologic prognostic factors in patients with breast cancer. Eighty-two invasive ductal carcinomas in 69 women were included in the study. All the subjects underwent whole-body (WB) PET/MRI (supine WB mode) and dedicated PET/MRI of the breast (prone breast imaging mode) for staging on a simultaneous PET/MRI system. The SUV and TLG values were calculated from (18)F-FDG PET data using MRI-based attenuation correction (2-point Dixon sequence for tissue segmentation). Relationships between SUV and TLG values and clinical and histopathologic parameters (i.e., tumor size, tumor grade, Ki-67 status, and hormonal receptor expression status) were evaluated using Spearman correlation coefficient analysis. A significant correlation was observed between mean SUV (SUVmean) and maximum SUV (SUVmax) values derived with WB PET and regional PET of the breasts performed simultaneously with MRI (r = 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). A significant difference (p PET/MRI are reliable and correlate with clinicopathologic features such as grade as well as subtype and thus could be used in the prognostication of breast cancer.

  1. Scalability, Complexity and Reliability in Quantum Information Processing


    focus at a time. We can reliably determine if there is an atom at a given site in ~20 ms. The image plane can then be changed using a piezo -electric...velocities tuned near subharmonics of the transverse trapping frequencies, resonant transfer of longitudinal energy to transverse excitation can cause a...dramatic reduction in the longitudinal dispersion of an atomic wave packet. Tuned to one of these resonances (the 5th subharmonic ), the atomic cloud is

  2. Reliability, Readability and Quality of Online Information about Femoracetabular Impingement

    Fatih Küçükdurmaz


    Conclusion: According to our results, the websites intended to attract patients searching for information regarding femoroacetabular impingement are providing a highly accessible, readable information source, but do not appear to apply a comparable amount of rigor to scientific literature or healthcare practitioner websites in regard to matters such as citing sources for information, supplying methodology and including a publication date. This indicates that while these resources are easily accessed by patients, there is potential for them to be a source of misinformation.

  3. Foraging Bumble Bees Weigh the Reliability of Personal and Social Information.

    Dunlap, Aimee S; Nielsen, Matthew E; Dornhaus, Anna; Papaj, Daniel R


    Many animals, including insects, make decisions using both personally gathered information and social information derived from the behavior of other, usually conspecific, individuals [1]. Moreover, animals adjust use of social versus personal information appropriately under a variety of experimental conditions [2-5]. An important factor in how information is used is the information's reliability, that is, how consistently the information is correlated with something of relevance in the environment [6]. The reliability of information determines which signals should be attended to during communication [6-9], which types of stimuli animals should learn about, and even whether learning should evolve [10, 11]. Here, we show that bumble bees (Bombus impatiens) account for the reliability of personally acquired information (which flower color was previously associated with reward) and social information (which flowers are chosen by other bees) in making foraging decisions; however, the two types of information are not treated equally. Bees prefer to use social information if it predicts a reward at all, but if social information becomes entirely unreliable, flower color will be used instead. This greater sensitivity to the reliability of social information, and avoidance of conspecifics in some cases, may reflect the specific ecological circumstances of bee foraging. Overall, the bees' ability to make decisions based on both personally acquired and socially derived information, and the relative reliability of both, demonstrates a new level of sophistication and flexibility in animal, particularly insect, decision-making.

  4. Fast and reliable online learning to rank for information retrieval

    Hofmann, K.


    The amount of digital data we produce every day far surpasses our ability to process this data, and finding useful information in this constant flow of data has become one of the major challenges of the 21st century. Search engines are one way of accessing large data collections. Their algorithms ha

  5. Improving geo-information reliability by centralized change detection management

    Gorte, B.; Nardinocchi, C.; Thonon, I.; Addink, E.; Beck, R.; Persie, van M.; Kramer, H.


    A consortium called Mutatis Mutandis (MutMut), consisting of three Universities and eight producers and users of geo-information, was established in the Netherlands to streamline change detection on a national level. After preliminary investigations concerning market feasibility, three actions are

  6. Regional Longitudinal Myocardial Deformation Provides Incremental Prognostic Information in Patients with ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

    Biering-Sørensen, Tor; Jensen, Jan Skov; Pedersen, Sune H;


    BACKGROUND: Global longitudinal systolic strain (GLS) has recently been demonstrated to be a superior prognosticator to conventional echocardiographic measures in patients after myocardial infarction (MI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of regional longitudinal...... myocardial deformation in comparison to GLS, conventional echocardiography and clinical information. METHOD: In total 391 patients were admitted with ST-Segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention and subsequently examined by echocardiography. All...... patients were examined by tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) and two-dimensional strain echocardiography (2DSE). RESULTS: During a median-follow-up of 5.3 (IQR 2.5-6.1) years the primary endpoint (death, heart failure or a new MI) was reached by 145 (38.9%) patients. After adjustment for significant confounders...

  7. Problems of Reliability and Informality in Financial Reporting of SME



    Full Text Available The preparation of financial reporting in our country is regulated by Law No. 9228 "On Accounting and Financial Statements" of 2004. This law was formulated in the spirit of international accounting standards by authorizing the regulation of accounting with Accounting Standards [1] , which started to apply in January 2008 by all units with profit that operate in our country. According to the first standard of accounting which represents important principles of preparation of financial reporting, the financial statements should provide all the information necessary, complete and realistic financial position of the entity and to be unaffected during the preparation from its makers or menagement. But does it really happen to implement these principles during the preparation of financial statements, or economic units did not report complete financial situation, so there is informality? Exactly, the answer to that question constitutes the main purpose of this paper. This will be realized by the processing of data insured through a questionnaire addressed to tax inspectors in the district of Tirana, Lezhes and Peshkopi. The results showed that over 80% of entities controlled by inspectors , who participate in the questionnaire, have resulted that they do not fully report income and apply other prices from the real prices in tax bills. Also the results showed that over 70% of cases, the information reported in the financial statements is influenced by management or also by the drafters of the financial statements with the approval of the menagement. So the results indicated that the problems of informality in the financial reporting are present according to tax inspectors.

  8. Fault-tolerant search algorithms reliable computation with unreliable information

    Cicalese, Ferdinando


    Why a book on fault-tolerant search algorithms? Searching is one of the fundamental problems in computer science. Time and again algorithmic and combinatorial issues originally studied in the context of search find application in the most diverse areas of computer science and discrete mathematics. On the other hand, fault-tolerance is a necessary ingredient of computing. Due to their inherent complexity, information systems are naturally prone to errors, which may appear at any level - as imprecisions in the data, bugs in the software, or transient or permanent hardware failures. This book pr

  9. Reliability and validity test of a Scoring Rubric for Information Literacy

    A.A.J. (Jos) van Helvoort; Frank Huysmans; Saskia Brand-Gruwel; Ellen Sjoer


    Purpose: The main purpose of the research was to measure reliability and validity of the Scoring Rubric for Information Literacy (Van Helvoort, 2010). Design/methodology/approach: Percentages of agreement and Intraclass Correlation were used to describe interrater reliability. For the determination

  10. Reliability and information content of tests with cardioleader in cyclic types of sports

    Utkin, V. L.


    Tests with cardioleader to control the physical, technical and tactical preparedness of athletes in cyclic types of sports are discussed. Ways of increasing the reliability and information content of the tests were studied.

  11. Performance Reliability Prediction of Complex System Based on the Condition Monitoring Information

    Hongxing Wang


    Full Text Available Complex system performance reliability prediction is one of the means to understand complex systems reliability level, make maintenance decision, and guarantee the safety of operation. By the use of complex system condition monitoring information and condition monitoring information based on support vector machine, the paper aims to provide an evaluation of the degradation of complex system performance. With degradation assessment results as input variables, the prediction model of reliability is established in Winer random process. Taking the aircraft engine as an example, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in the paper.

  12. Mean platelet volume provides beneficial diagnostic and prognostic information for patients with resectable gastric cancer

    Shen, Xiao-Ming; Xia, You-You; Lian, Lian; Zhou, Chong; Li, Xiang-Li; Han, Shu-Guang; Zheng, Yan; Gong, Fei-Ran; Tao, Min; Mao, Zhong-Qi; Li, Wei


    Gastric cancer is the fourth most frequent cancer and the second cause of cancer-related mortalities worldwide. Platelets play an important and multifaceted role in cancer progression. Elevated mean platelet volume (MPV) detected in peripheral blood has been identified in various types of cancer. In the present study, we investigated the application value of MPV in early diagnostic and prognostic prediction in patients with resectable gastric cancer. In total, 168 patients with resectable gastric cancer were included and separated into the gastric cancer and healthy control groups according to median pre-operatic MPV value (MPV low, <10.51 or MPV high, ≥10.51). The results showed that the pre-operatic MPV level was significantly higher in gastric cancer patients compared with the healthy subjects. Low pre-operatic MPV level correlated with improved clinicopathological features, including decreased depth of invasion, less lymphonodus metastasis and early tumor stage. The Kaplan-Meier plots showed that the patients with higher pre-operatic MPV had decreased overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Surgical tumor resection resulted in a significant decrease in the MPV level. The patients whose MPV level decreased following surgery had an improved OS. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that the depth of invasion, lymphonodus metastasis, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, and changes in MPV following surgery were prognostic factors affecting OS, and the AJCC stage and pre-operatic MPV were prognostic factors affecting DFS. In conclusion, MPV measurement can provide important diagnostic and prognostic results in patients with resectable gastric cancer. PMID:27703523

  13. Exploiting Spatio-Temporal Correlation for Reliable Information Transport in WSNs

    Faisal Karim Shaikh


    Full Text Available Delivering reliable services in service oriented architectures entails the underlying basis of having communication network models and well structured systems. With the rapid proliferation of ad-hoc mode of communication the reliable delivery of services increasingly encounter new communication and network perturbations. Empirically the core of service delivery in WSNs (Wireless Sensor Networks is information transport from the sensor nodes to the sink node where the service resides. In this work we provide a reliable information transport for enhanced service delivery by using spatio-temporal correlation in WSN. The classification for different types of information required by the services is also presented. To overcome dynamic network conditions and evolving service requirements an adaptive retransmission mechanism based on spatial correlation is utilized. Simulation results show that the proposed solutions provide service specific reliability and save expensive retransmissions and thus provide energy efficient solution.

  14. Prognostics for Microgrid Components

    Saxena, Abhinav


    Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

  15. Efficient Structural System Reliability Updating with Subspace-Based Damage Detection Information

    Döhler, Michael; Thöns, Sebastian

    modelling is introduced building upon the non-destructive testing reliability which applies to structural systems and DDS containing a strategy to overcome the high computational efforts for the pre-determination of the DDS reliability. This approach takes basis in the subspace-based damage detection method......Damage detection systems and algorithms (DDS and DDA) provide information of the structural system integrity in contrast to e.g. local information by inspections or non-destructive testing techniques. However, the potential of utilizing DDS information for the structural integrity assessment...... and prognosis is hardly exploited nor treated in scientific literature up to now. In order to utilize the information provided by DDS for the structural performance, usually high computational efforts for the pre-determination of DDS reliability are required. In this paper, an approach for the DDS performance...

  16. Metrics for Service Availability and Service Reliability in Service-oriented Intelligence Information System,

    Ackoski, Jugoslav; Trajkovik, Vladimir


    Intelligence Information System (IIS) proposed in this paper is based on service-oriented architecture. This paper gives contribution in definition of metrics for service reliability and service availability in terms of their usage by the end-user. Developed metrics for services have significant meaning for service-oriented Intelligence Information System.

  17. Metrics for Service Availability and Service Reliability in Service-oriented Intelligence Information System,

    Ackoski, Jugoslav; Trajkovik, Vladimir


    Intelligence Information System (IIS) proposed in this paper is based on service-oriented architecture. This paper gives contribution in definition of metrics for service reliability and service availability in terms of their usage by the end-user. Developed metrics for services have significant meaning for service-oriented Intelligence Information System.

  18. An Information-Theoretic Alternative to the Cronbach's Alpha Coefficient of Item Reliability

    Fokoue, Ernest; Gunduz, Necla


    We propose an information-theoretic alternative to the popular Cronbach alpha coefficient of reliability. Particularly suitable for contexts in which instruments are scored on a strictly nonnumeric scale, our proposed index is based on functions of the entropy of the distributions of defined on the sample space of responses. Our reliability index tracks the Cronbach alpha coefficient uniformly while offering several other advantages discussed in great details in this paper.

  19. The Effect of Information Access Strategy on Power Consumption and Reliability in Wireless Sensor Network

    Tobgay, Sonam; Olsen, Rasmus Løvenstein; Prasad, Ramjee


    This paper examines the effect of different information access strategies on power consumption and information reliability, considering the wireless sensor network as the source of information. Basically, the paper explores three different access strategies, namely; reactive, periodic and hybrid...... and computes power consumption and mismatch probability [1] in each of these access strategies. Based on our study, we make some recommendations when and where, which access strategy is suitable depending upon the application's requirements and network behavior. It also provides the model implementation...

  20. The Impact of the Reliability of Teleinformation Systems on the Quality of Transmitted Information

    Stawowy Marek


    Full Text Available The work describes the impact the reliability of the information quality IQ for information and communication systems. One of the components of IQ is the reliability properties such as relativity, accuracy, timeliness, completeness, consistency, adequacy, accessibility, credibility, congruence. Each of these components of IQ is independent and to properly estimate the value of IQ, use one of the methods of modeling uncertainty. In this article, we used a hybrid method that has been developed jointly by one of the authors. This method is based on the mathematical theory of evidence know as Dempstera-Shafera (DS theory and serial links of dependent hybrid named IQ (hyb.

  1. Validity and Reliability of the Czech Version of the Amsterdam Preoperative Anxiety and Information Scale (APAIS).

    Zeleníková, Renáta; Homzová, Pavlína; Homza, Miroslav; Bužgová, Radka


    The purpose of this study was to validate the Czech version of the Amsterdam Preoperative Anxiety and Information Scale (APAIS) in adult patients undergoing elective surgery. A cross-sectional study. Data were collected from July 2012 to January 2013. For reliability and validity testing, two instruments measuring preoperative anxiety were administered to the participants on the same occasion, (APAIS and the Spielberg State Anxiety Inventory (STAI-S)). The sample consisted of 344 patients undergoing elective surgery. Reliability of APAIS anxiety subscale measured by Cronbach's alpha was 0.91. Reliability of APAIS information subscale measured by Cronbach's alpha was 0.78. The APAIS anxiety subscale correlated significantly with the STAI-S (0.69). Women scored significantly higher on anxiety scales than men. APAIS may be a useful tool to measure preoperative anxiety in Czech patients undergoing elective surgery. Copyright © 2016 American Society of PeriAnesthesia Nurses. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Reliable Fuzzy Reputation System to enhance the performance of disseminating the information in VANET

    P.Uma Maheswari


    Full Text Available VANET (Vehicular Adhoc NETwork is a special type of MANET in which moving vehicles are considered to be nodes. Vehicular nodes are allowed to forward the road related information like traffic condition, congestion in road, accident, weather condition etc to other vehicles. This information is very useful and valuable to nearby vehicles which will increase the road safety and hence it reduces the congestion. Message transmission will not be effective unless it is reliable. This paper demonstrates Reliable Fuzzy Reputation System (RFRS which is reliable in terms of forwarding the information in vehicular network. Reliability is achieved by introducing RFRS and Universal Generating Function Techniques (UGFT method in VANET. RFRS is used to find the selfish nodes from non-selfish nodes and gather the information from selfish nodes and finally forward to other ongoing vehicles effectively. Successful transmission of packets from source node to target node is calculated by using node UGF, UGF of FM (Forward Manager and UGF of FRM (Fuzzy Reputation Manager. Also we projected an EMAP system - trusted authority, which is responsible for sharing secret keys to all OBUs in network that improves the security. Simulation is carried out in Network Simulator (NS-2 to evaluate the performance with respect to Packet Delivery Ratio, Delay, Packet Loss Ratio, Energy Rate and Throughput.

  3. Epistemic Trust and Education: Effects of Informant Reliability on Student Learning of Decimal Concepts

    Durkin, Kelley; Shafto, Patrick


    The epistemic trust literature emphasizes that children's evaluations of informants' trustworthiness affects learning, but there is no evidence that epistemic trust affects learning in academic domains. The current study investigated how reliability affects decimal learning. Fourth and fifth graders (N = 122; M[subscript age] = 10.1 years)…

  4. Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Reliability and Maintainability Model. Final Report.

    Czuchry, Andrew J.; And Others

    The reliability and maintainability (R&M) model described in this report represents an important portion of a larger effort called the Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS) Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Study. The R&M model is the first of three models that comprise a modeling system for use in LCC analysis of avionics systems. The total…

  5. Operation reliability assessment for cutting tools by applying a proportional covariate model to condition monitoring information.

    Cai, Gaigai; Chen, Xuefeng; Li, Bing; Chen, Baojia; He, Zhengjia


    The reliability of cutting tools is critical to machining precision and production efficiency. The conventional statistic-based reliability assessment method aims at providing a general and overall estimation of reliability for a large population of identical units under given and fixed conditions. However, it has limited effectiveness in depicting the operational characteristics of a cutting tool. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes an approach to assess the operation reliability of cutting tools. A proportional covariate model is introduced to construct the relationship between operation reliability and condition monitoring information. The wavelet packet transform and an improved distance evaluation technique are used to extract sensitive features from vibration signals, and a covariate function is constructed based on the proportional covariate model. Ultimately, the failure rate function of the cutting tool being assessed is calculated using the baseline covariate function obtained from a small sample of historical data. Experimental results and a comparative study show that the proposed method is effective for assessing the operation reliability of cutting tools.

  6. Operational Reliability Assessment of Compressor Gearboxes with Normalized Lifting Wavelet Entropy from Condition Monitoring Information

    Xiaoli Zhang


    Full Text Available Classical reliability assessment methods have predominantly focused on probability and statistical theories, which are insufficient in assessing the operational reliability of individual mechanical equipment with time-varying characteristics. A new approach to assess machinery operational reliability with normalized lifting wavelet entropy from condition monitoring information is proposed, which is different from classical reliability assessment methods depending on probability and statistics analysis. The machinery vibration signals with time-varying operational characteristics are firstly decomposed and reconstructed by means of a lifting wavelet package transform. The relative energy of every reconstructed signal is computed as an energy percentage of the reconstructed signal in the whole signal energy. Moreover, a normalized lifting wavelet entropy is defined by the relative energy to reveal the machinery operational uncertainty. Finally, operational reliability degree is defined by the quantitative value obtained by the normalized lifting wavelet entropy belonging to the range of [0, 1]. The proposed method is applied in the operational reliability assessment of the gearbox in an oxy-generator compressor to validate the effectiveness.

  7. Vectorcardiographic diagnostic & prognostic information derived from the 12-lead electrocardiogram: Historical review and clinical perspective.

    Man, Sumche; Maan, Arie C; Schalij, Martin J; Swenne, Cees A


    In the course of time, electrocardiography has assumed several modalities with varying electrode numbers, electrode positions and lead systems. 12-lead electrocardiography and 3-lead vectorcardiography have become particularly popular. These modalities developed in parallel through the mid-twentieth century. In the same time interval, the physical concepts underlying electrocardiography were defined and worked out. In particular, the vector concept (heart vector, lead vector, volume conductor) appeared to be essential to understanding the manifestations of electrical heart activity, both in the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) and in the 3-lead vectorcardiogram (VCG). Not universally appreciated in the clinic, the vectorcardiogram, and with it the vector concept, went out of use. A revival of vectorcardiography started in the 90's, when VCGs were mathematically synthesized from standard 12-lead ECGs. This facilitated combined electrocardiography and vectorcardiography without the need for a special recording system. This paper gives an overview of these historical developments, elaborates on the vector concept and seeks to define where VCG analysis/interpretation can add diagnostic/prognostic value to conventional 12-lead ECG analysis.

  8. Creation of reliable relevance judgments in information retrieval systems evaluation experimentation through crowdsourcing: a review.

    Samimi, Parnia; Ravana, Sri Devi


    Test collection is used to evaluate the information retrieval systems in laboratory-based evaluation experimentation. In a classic setting, generating relevance judgments involves human assessors and is a costly and time consuming task. Researchers and practitioners are still being challenged in performing reliable and low-cost evaluation of retrieval systems. Crowdsourcing as a novel method of data acquisition is broadly used in many research fields. It has been proven that crowdsourcing is an inexpensive and quick solution as well as a reliable alternative for creating relevance judgments. One of the crowdsourcing applications in IR is to judge relevancy of query document pair. In order to have a successful crowdsourcing experiment, the relevance judgment tasks should be designed precisely to emphasize quality control. This paper is intended to explore different factors that have an influence on the accuracy of relevance judgments accomplished by workers and how to intensify the reliability of judgments in crowdsourcing experiment.

  9. Implementation of a combined algorithm designed to increase the reliability of information systems: simulation modeling

    Popov, A.; Zolotarev, V.; Bychkov, S.


    This paper examines the results of experimental studies of a previously submitted combined algorithm designed to increase the reliability of information systems. The data that illustrates the organization and conduct of the studies is provided. Within the framework of a comparison of As a part of the study conducted, the comparison of the experimental data of simulation modeling and the data of the functioning of the real information system was made. The hypothesis of the homogeneity of the logical structure of the information systems was formulated, thus enabling to reconfigure the algorithm presented, - more specifically, to transform it into the model for the analysis and prediction of arbitrary information systems. The results presented can be used for further research in this direction. The data of the opportunity to predict the functioning of the information systems can be used for strategic and economic planning. The algorithm can be used as a means for providing information security.

  10. Reliability Evaluation for the Running State of the Manufacturing System Based on Poor Information

    Xintao Xia


    Full Text Available The output performance of the manufacturing system has a direct impact on the mechanical product quality. For guaranteeing product quality and production cost, many firms try to research the crucial issues on reliability of the manufacturing system with small sample data, to evaluate whether the manufacturing system is capable or not. The existing reliability methods depend on a known probability distribution or vast test data. However, the population performances of complex systems become uncertain as processing time; namely, their probability distributions are unknown, if the existing methods are still taken into account; it is ineffective. This paper proposes a novel evaluation method based on poor information to settle the problems of reliability of the running state of a manufacturing system under the condition of small sample sizes with a known or unknown probability distribution. Via grey bootstrap method, maximum entropy principle, and Poisson process, the experimental investigation on reliability evaluation for the running state of the manufacturing system shows that, under the best confidence level P=0.95, if the reliability degree of achieving running quality is r>0.65, the intersection area between the inspection data and the intrinsic data is A(T>0.3 and the variation probability of the inspection data is PB(T≤0.7, and the running state of the manufacturing system is reliable; otherwise, it is not reliable. And the sensitivity analysis regarding the size of the samples can show that the size of the samples has no effect on the evaluation results obtained by the evaluation method. The evaluation method proposed provides the scientific decision and suggestion for judging the running state of the manufacturing system reasonably, which is efficient, profitable, and organized.

  11. Use and perceptions of information among family physicians: sources considered accessible, relevant, and reliable

    Kosteniuk, Julie G.; Morgan, Debra G.; D'Arcy, Carl K.


    Objectives: The research determined (1) the information sources that family physicians (FPs) most commonly use to update their general medical knowledge and to make specific clinical decisions, and (2) the information sources FPs found to be most physically accessible, intellectually accessible (easy to understand), reliable (trustworthy), and relevant to their needs. Methods: A cross-sectional postal survey of 792 FPs and locum tenens, in full-time or part-time medical practice, currently practicing or on leave of absence in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan was conducted during the period of January to April 2008. Results: Of 666 eligible physicians, 331 completed and returned surveys, resulting in a response rate of 49.7% (331/666). Medical textbooks and colleagues in the main patient care setting were the top 2 sources for the purpose of making specific clinical decisions. Medical textbooks were most frequently considered by FPs to be reliable (trustworthy), and colleagues in the main patient care setting were most physically accessible (easy to access). Conclusions: When making specific clinical decisions, FPs were most likely to use information from sources that they considered to be reliable and generally physically accessible, suggesting that FPs can best be supported by facilitating easy and convenient access to high-quality information. PMID:23405045

  12. Interventions to assist health consumers to find reliable online health information: a comprehensive review.

    Kenneth Lee

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Health information on the Internet is ubiquitous, and its use by health consumers prevalent. Finding and understanding relevant online health information, and determining content reliability, pose real challenges for many health consumers. PURPOSE: To identify the types of interventions that have been implemented to assist health consumers to find reliable online health information, and where possible, describe and compare the types of outcomes studied. DATA SOURCES: PubMed, PsycINFO, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Library databases; WorldCat and Scirus 'gray literature' search engines; and manual review of reference lists of selected publications. STUDY SELECTION: Publications were selected by firstly screening title, abstract, and then full text. DATA EXTRACTION: Seven publications met the inclusion criteria, and were summarized in a data extraction form. The form incorporated the PICOS (Population Intervention Comparators Outcomes and Study Design Model. Two eligible gray literature papers were also reported. DATA SYNTHESIS: Relevant data from included studies were tabulated to enable descriptive comparison. A brief critique of each study was included in the tables. This review was unable to follow systematic review methods due to the paucity of research and humanistic interventions reported. LIMITATIONS: While extensive, the gray literature search may have had limited reach in some countries. The paucity of research on this topic limits conclusions that may be drawn. CONCLUSIONS: The few eligible studies predominantly adopted a didactic approach to assisting health consumers, whereby consumers were either taught how to find credible websites, or how to use the Internet. Common types of outcomes studied include knowledge and skills pertaining to Internet use and searching for reliable health information. These outcomes were predominantly self-assessed by participants. There is potential for further research to explore other avenues for

  13. Reliability Information Analysis Center 1st Quarter 2007, Technical Area Task (TAT) Report


    07 planning conference 14 Dec 06 II Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) meeting with Major Smith 14 Dec 06 Gulf of Mexico Tyndall Air Force Base Missile...Restructured action item spreadsheet " Reviewed the following storyboards (functional flow, graphics and text): 1. 050101 Main Rotor System components 2... storyboards (functional flow, graphics, and text): o 050101 Main Rotor System components. Reliability Information Analysis Center 6000 Flanagan Road


    O. O. Matusevych


    Full Text Available The author proposed the numerous methods of solving the multi-criterion task – increasing of reliability of control system on the basis of expert information. The information, which allows choosing thoughtfully the method of reliability increasing for a control system of electric transport, is considered.

  15. Towards Informed Maintenance Decision Making: Identifying and Mapping Successful Diagnostic and Prognostic Routes

    Tiddens, W.W.; Braaksma, A.J.J.; Tinga, T.; Grubbström, R.W.; Hinterhuber, H.H.


    Advanced maintenance techniques (AMTs) are practices that can support informed maintenance decision making by taking the current, but preferably also the future state of physical assets into account. These techniques can be worthwhile to companies when they are well applied. However, only few compan

  16. Towards Informed Maintenance Decision Making: Identifying and Mapping Successful Diagnostic and Prognostic Routes

    Tiddens, Wieger Willem; Braaksma, Anne Johannes Jan; Tinga, Tiedo; Grubbström, R.W.; Hinterhuber, H.H.


    Advanced maintenance techniques (AMTs) are practices that can support informed maintenance decision making by taking the current, but preferably also the future state of physical assets into account. These techniques can be worthwhile to companies when they are well applied. However, only few

  17. Prognostic relevance of morphological classification models for myelodysplastic syndromes in an era of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System.

    van Spronsen, Margot F; Ossenkoppele, Gert J; Westers, Theresia M; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A


    Numerous morphological classification models have been developed to organise the heterogeneous spectrum of myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). While the 2008 update of the World Health Organisation (WHO) is the current standard, the publication of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) has illustrated the need for supplemental prognostic information. The aim of this study was to investigate whether morphological classification models for MDS - of both the French-American-British (FAB) group and WHO - provide reliable criteria for their classification into homogeneous and clinically relevant categories with prognostic relevance beyond the IPSS-R. We reclassified 238 MDS patients using each of the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 criteria and studied classification categories in terms of clinical, haematological and cytogenetic features. Subsequently, we calculated prognostic scores using the IPSS-R and investigated whether the morphological classification models had significantly prognostic value in patients stratified by the IPSS-R and vice versa. By adopting the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 classifications, MDS patients were organised into homogeneous categories with intrinsic prognostic information. However, whereas the morphological classification models showed no prognostic value beyond the IPSS-R, the IPSS-R had significant prognostic value beyond the FAB, WHO 2001 and WHO 2008 classifications. Even though morphological classification models for MDS might be clinically relevant from a prognostic point of view, their relevance in terms of risk stratification is evidently limited in light of the IPSS-R. Therefore, we suggest to stop the use of morphological classification models for MDS for risk stratification in routine clinical practice.

  18. Metabolomic Screening of Tumor Tissue and Serum in Glioma Patients Reveals Diagnostic and Prognostic Information

    Lina Mörén


    Full Text Available Glioma grading and classification, today based on histological features, is not always easy to interpret and diagnosis partly relies on the personal experience of the neuropathologists. The most important feature of the classification is the aimed correlation between tumor grade and prognosis. However, in the clinical reality, large variations exist in the survival of patients concerning both glioblastomas and low-grade gliomas. Thus, there is a need for biomarkers for a more reliable classification of glioma tumors as well as for prognosis. We analyzed relative metabolite concentrations in serum samples from 96 fasting glioma patients and 81 corresponding tumor samples with different diagnosis (glioblastoma, oligodendroglioma and grade (World Health Organization (WHO grade II, III and IV using gas chromatography-time of flight mass spectrometry (GC-TOFMS. The acquired data was analyzed and evaluated by pattern recognition based on chemometric bioinformatics tools. We detected feature patterns in the metabolomics data in both tumor and serum that distinguished glioblastomas from oligodendrogliomas (ptumor = 2.46 × 10−8, pserum = 1.3 × 10−5 and oligodendroglioma grade II from oligodendroglioma grade III (ptumor = 0.01, pserum = 0.0008. Interestingly, we also found patterns in both tumor and serum with individual metabolite features that were both elevated and decreased in patients that lived long after being diagnosed with glioblastoma compared to those who died shortly after diagnosis (ptumor = 0.006, pserum = 0.004; AUROCCtumor = 0.846 (0.647–1.000, AUROCCserum = 0.958 (0.870–1.000. Metabolic patterns could also distinguish long and short survival in patients diagnosed with oligodendroglioma (ptumor = 0.01, pserum = 0.001; AUROCCtumor = 1 (1.000–1.000, AUROCCserum = 1 (1.000–1.000. In summary, we found different metabolic feature patterns in tumor tissue and serum for glioma diagnosis, grade and survival, which indicates that

  19. Is the information about dengue available on Brazilian websites of quality and reliable?

    Thiago Henrique de Lima


    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to identify and evaluate the content of information about dengue available on Brazilian websites. Thirty-two websites were selected for the analysis. For the evaluation of the content of information about dengue, a form was prepared with 16 topics grouped in six information blocks: etiology/transmission, vector, control and prevention, disease/diagnosis, treatment and epidemiology. The websites were also evaluated according to the following criteria: authorship, update, language, interactivity, scientific basis and graphic elements. The results showed a predominantly lack of information in relation to the topics analyzed in each information block. Regarding the technical quality of the websites, only 28.1% showed some indication of scientific basis and 34.3% contained the date of publication or of the last update. Such results attested the low reliability of the selected websites. Knowing that the internet is an efficient mechanism for disseminating information on health topics, we concluded that the creation of such mechanisms to disseminate correct and comprehensive information about dengue is necessary in order to apply this useful tool in the prevention and control of the disease in Brazil.

  20. The Accessibility, Usability, and Reliability of Chinese Web-Based Information on HIV/AIDS

    Niu, Lu; Luo, Dan; Liu, Ying; Xiao, Shuiyuan


    Objective: The present study was designed to assess the quality of Chinese-language Internet-based information on HIV/AIDS. Methods: We entered the following search terms, in Chinese, into Baidu and Sogou: “HIV/AIDS”, “symptoms”, and “treatment”, and evaluated the first 50 hits of each query using the Minervation validation instrument (LIDA tool) and DISCERN instrument. Results: Of the 900 hits identified, 85 websites were included in this study. The overall score of the LIDA tool was 63.7%; the mean score of accessibility, usability, and reliability was 82.2%, 71.5%, and 27.3%, respectively. Of the top 15 sites according to the LIDA score, the mean DISCERN score was calculated at 43.1 (95% confidence intervals (CI) = 37.7–49.5). Noncommercial websites showed higher DISCERN scores than commercial websites; whereas commercial websites were more likely to be found in the first 20 links obtained from each search engine than the noncommercial websites. Conclusions: In general, the HIV/AIDS related Chinese-language websites have poor reliability, although their accessibility and usability are fair. In addition, the treatment information presented on Chinese-language websites is far from sufficient. There is an imperative need for professionals and specialized institutes to improve the comprehensiveness of web-based information related to HIV/AIDS. PMID:27556475

  1. The application of Plant Reliability Data Information System (PRINS) to CANDU reactor

    Hwang, S. W.; Lim, Y. H.; Park, H. C. [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Naah-ri 260, Yangnam-myun, Gyeongju-si, Gyeong Buk (Korea, Republic of)


    As risk-informed applications (RIAs) are actively implanted in the nuclear industry, an issue associated with technical adequacy of Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) arises in its modeling and data sourcing. In Korea, PSA for all Korean NPPs has been completed and KHNP(Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Plant Company) developed the database called the Plant Reliability Data Information System (PRinS). It has several characteristics that distinguish it from other database system such as NPRDs (INPO,1994), PRIS (IAEA), and SRDF (EdF). This database has the function of systematic data management such as automatic data-gathering, periodic data deposition and updating, statistical analysis including Bayesian method, and trend analysis of failure rate or unavailability. In recent PSA for CANDU reactor, the component failure data of EPRI ALWR URD and Component Reliability Database were preferentially used as generic data set. The error factor for most component failure data was estimated by using the information NUREG/CR-4550 and NUREG/CR-4639. Also, annual trend analysis was performed for the functional losses of components using the statistical analysis and chart module of PRinS. Furthermore, the database has been updated regularly and maintained as a living program to reflect the current status. This paper presents the failure data analysis using PRinS which provides Bayesian analysis on main components in the CANDU reactor. (authors)

  2. FOXO1 downregulation is associated with worse outcome in bladder cancer and adds significant prognostic information to p53 overexpression.

    Lloreta, Josep; Font-Tello, Alba; Juanpere, Núria; Frances, Albert; Lorenzo, Marta; Nonell, Lara; de Muga, Silvia; Vázquez, Ivonne; Cecchini, Lluís; Hernández-Llodrà, Silvia


    Nuclear FOXOs mediate cell cycle arrest and promote apoptosis. FOXOs and p53 could have similar effects as tumor suppressor genes. In spite of extensive literature, little is known about the role of FOXO1 and its relationship with p53 status in bladder cancer. Expression of FOXO1 and p53 were analyzed by immunohistochemistry in 162 urothelial carcinomas (UC). Decreased FOXO1 expression, p53 overexpression and the combination FOXO1 downregulation/p53 overexpression were strongly associated with high grade (P=.030; P=.017; P=.004, respectively), high stage (P=.0001; Pp53 overexpression was associated with tumor progression (HR=3.18, 95% CI 1.19-8.48 P=.02), but this association was even stronger if having any alteration in any of the two genes was considered (HR=3.51, 95% CI 1.34-9.21 P=.01). Having both FOXO1 downregulation and p53 overexpression was associated with disease recurrence (HR=2.75, 95% CI 1.06-7.13 P=.03). In the analysis of the different subgroups, having any alteration in any of the two genes was associated with progression in low grade (P=.005) and pTa (P=.006) tumors. Finally, the combined FOXO1 downregulation/p53 overexpression was associated with disease recurrence specifically in high grade (P=.04) and in pT1 stage tumors (P=.007). Adding FOXO1 expression to the immunohistochemical analysis of p53 can provide relevant prognostic information on progression and recurrence of bladder cancer. It may be particularly informative on the risk of progression in the more indolent and on the risk of recurrence in the more aggressive tumors.

  3. [The analytical reliability of clinical laboratory information and role of the standards in its support].

    Men'shikov, V V


    The article deals with the factors impacting the reliability of clinical laboratory information. The differences of qualities of laboratory analysis tools produced by various manufacturers are discussed. These characteristics are the causes of discrepancy of the results of laboratory analyses of the same analite. The role of the reference system in supporting the comparability of laboratory analysis results is demonstrated. The project of national standard is presented to regulate the requirements to standards and calibrators for analysis of qualitative and non-metrical characteristics of components of biomaterials.

  4. On the Reliability of Retrospective Unemployment Information in European Household Panel Data

    Kyyrä, Tomi; Wilke, Ralf


    The retrospectively recalled calendar of activities in the European Community Household Panel is a prime resource for cross-country analysis of unemployment experience. We investigate the reliability of these data and find that 26 % of unemployed respondents misreported retrospectively...... their unemployment status in the subsequent interview. We observe large differences across countries: While the conditional probability of consistent information is 96 % in the UK, it is just 51 % in Greece for a comparable individual. By analyzing long-term unemployment and unemployment persistence, we show...

  5. Based on Weibull Information Fusion Analysis Semiconductors Quality the Key Technology of Manufacturing Execution Systems Reliability

    Huang, Zhi-Hui; Tang, Ying-Chun; Dai, Kai


    Semiconductor materials and Product qualified rate are directly related to the manufacturing costs and survival of the enterprise. Application a dynamic reliability growth analysis method studies manufacturing execution system reliability growth to improve product quality. Refer to classical Duane model assumptions and tracking growth forecasts the TGP programming model, through the failure data, established the Weibull distribution model. Combining with the median rank of average rank method, through linear regression and least squares estimation method, match respectively weibull information fusion reliability growth curve. This assumption model overcome Duane model a weakness which is MTBF point estimation accuracy is not high, through the analysis of the failure data show that the method is an instance of the test and evaluation modeling process are basically identical. Median rank in the statistics is used to determine the method of random variable distribution function, which is a good way to solve the problem of complex systems such as the limited sample size. Therefore this method has great engineering application value.

  6. Structured information analysis for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants

    Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun; Ha, Jae Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)


    More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest SIA (Structured Information Analysis) for HRA. The proposed SIA consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis module that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis, systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task. 48 refs., 12 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  7. Structured information analysis for human reliability analysis of emergency tasks in nuclear power plants

    Jung, Won Dea; Kim, Jae Whan; Park, Jin Kyun; Ha, Jae Joo [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejeon (Korea)


    More than twenty HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) methodologies have been developed and used for the safety analysis in nuclear field during the past two decades. However, no methodology appears to have universally been accepted, as various limitations have been raised for more widely used ones. One of the most important limitations of conventional HRA is insufficient analysis of the task structure and problem space. To resolve this problem, we suggest SIA (Structured Information Analysis) for HRA. The proposed SIA consists of three parts. The first part is the scenario analysis that investigates the contextual information related to the given task on the basis of selected scenarios. The second is the goals-means analysis to define the relations between the cognitive goal and task steps. The third is the cognitive function analysis module that identifies the cognitive patterns and information flows involved in the task. Through the three-part analysis, systematic investigation is made possible from the macroscopic information on the tasks to the microscopic information on the specific cognitive processes. It is expected that analysts can attain a structured set of information that helps to predict the types and possibility of human error in the given task. 48 refs., 12 figs., 11 tabs. (Author)

  8. Survey on Prognostics Techniques for Updating Initiating Event Frequency in PSA

    Kim, Hyeonmin; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)


    One of the applications using PSA is a risk monito. The risk monitoring is real-time analysis tool to decide real-time risk based on real state of components and systems. In order to utilize more effective, the methodologies that manipulate the data from Prognostics was suggested. Generally, Prognostic comprehensively includes not only prognostic but also monitoring and diagnostic. The prognostic method must need condition monitoring. In case of applying PHM to a PSA model, the latest condition of NPPs can be identified more clearly. For reducing the conservatism and uncertainties, we suggested the concept that updates the initiating event frequency in a PSA model by using Bayesian approach which is one of the prognostics techniques before. From previous research, the possibility that PSA is updated by using data more correctly was found. In reliability theory, the Bathtub curve divides three parts (infant failure, constant and random failure, wareout failure). In this paper, in order to investigate the applicability of prognostic methods in updating quantitative data in a PSA model, the OLM acceptance criteria from NUREG, the concept of how to using prognostic in PSA, and the enabling prognostic techniques are suggested. The prognostic has the motivation that improved the predictive capabilities using existing monitoring systems, data, and information will enable more accurate equipment risk assessment for improved decision-making.

  9. Reliability, Validity, Comparability and Practical Utility of Cybercrime-Related Data, Metrics, and Information

    Nir Kshetri


    Full Text Available With an increasing pervasiveness, prevalence and severity of cybercrimes, various metrics, measures and statistics have been developed and used to measure various aspects of this phenomenon. Cybercrime-related data, metrics, and information, however, pose important and difficult dilemmas regarding the issues of reliability, validity, comparability and practical utility. While many of the issues of the cybercrime economy are similar to other underground and underworld industries, this economy also has various unique aspects. For one thing, this industry also suffers from a problem partly rooted in the incredibly broad definition of the term “cybercrime”. This article seeks to provide insights and analysis into this phenomenon, which is expected to advance our understanding into cybercrime-related information.

  10. The reliability of the Personal and Social Performance scale - informing its training and use.

    White, Sarah; Dominise, Christianne; Naik, Dhruv; Killaspy, Helen


    Social functioning is as an important outcome in studies of people with schizophrenia. Most measures of social function include a person's ability to manage everyday activities as well as their abilities to engage in leisure and occupational activities. The Personal Social Performance (PSP) scale assesses functioning across four dimensions (socially useful activities, personal and social relationships, self-care, disturbing and aggressive behaviours) rather than one global score and thus has been reported to be easier to use. In a pan-European study of people with severe mental illness a team of 26 researchers received training in rating the scale, after which the inter-rater reliability (IRR) was assessed and found to be not sufficiently high. A brief survey of the researchers elicited information with which to explore the low IRR and their experience of using the PSP. Clinicians were found to have higher IRR, in particular, psychologists. Patients' employment status was found to be the most important predictor of PSP. Researchers used multiple sources of information when rating the scale. Sufficient training is required to ensure IRR, particularly for non-clinical researchers, if the PSP is to be established as a reliable research tool.

  11. [The external evaluation of study quality: the role in maintaining the reliability of laboratory information].

    Men'shikov, V V


    The external evaluation of quality of clinical laboratory examinations was gradually introduced in USSR medical laboratories since 1970s. In Russia, in the middle of 1990 a unified all-national system of external evaluation quality was organized known as the Federal center of external evaluation of quality at the basis of laboratory of the state research center of preventive medicine. The main positions of policy in this area were neatly formulated in the guidance documents of ministry of Health. Nowadays, the center of external evaluation of quality proposes 100 and more types of control studies and permanently extends their specter starting from interests of different disciplines of clinical medicine. The consistent participation of laboratories in the cycles of external evaluation of quality intrinsically promotes improvement of indicators of properness and precision of analysis results and increases reliability of laboratory information. However, a significant percentage of laboratories does not participate at all in external evaluation of quality or takes part in control process irregularly and in limited number of tests. The managers of a number of medical organizations disregard the application of the proposed possibilities to increase reliability of laboratory information and limit financing of studies in the field of quality control. The article proposes to adopt the national standard on the basis of ISO 17043 "Evaluation of compliance. The common requirements of professional competence testing".

  12. Transrectal Ultrasound Guided Biopsy of the Prostate: Is the Information Accessible, Usable, Reliable and Readable?

    Redmond, Ciaran E.; Nason, Gregory J.; Kelly, Michael E.; McMahon, Colm; Cantwell, Colin P.; Quinlan, David M.


    Background/Aims To evaluate the accessibility, usability, reliability and readability of Internet information regarding transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) guided biopsy of the prostate. Materials and Methods The terms “prostate biopsy”, “TRUS biopsy” and “transrectal ultrasound guided biopsy of the prostate” were separately entered into the each of the top 5 most accessed Internet search engines. Websites were evaluated for accessibility, usability and reliability using the LIDA tool – a validated tool for the assessment of health related websites. Website readability was assessed using the Flesch Reading Ease Score and the Flesch Kincaid Grade Level. Results Following the application of exclusion criteria, 82 unique websites were analyzed. There was a significant difference in scores depending on authorship categories (p ≤ 0.001), with health related charity websites scoring highest (mean 122.29 ± 13.98) and non-academic affiliated institution websites scoring lowest (mean 87 ± 19.76). The presence of advertisements on a website was associated with a lower mean overall LIDA tool score (p = 0.024). Only a single website adhered to the National Institutes for Health recommendations on readability. Conclusions This study demonstrates variability in the quality of information available to Internet users regarding TRUS biopsies. Collaboration of website design and clinical acumen are necessary to develop appropriate websites for patient benefit. PMID:26195961

  13. Significance analysis of prognostic signatures.

    Andrew H Beck

    Full Text Available A major goal in translational cancer research is to identify biological signatures driving cancer progression and metastasis. A common technique applied in genomics research is to cluster patients using gene expression data from a candidate prognostic gene set, and if the resulting clusters show statistically significant outcome stratification, to associate the gene set with prognosis, suggesting its biological and clinical importance. Recent work has questioned the validity of this approach by showing in several breast cancer data sets that "random" gene sets tend to cluster patients into prognostically variable subgroups. This work suggests that new rigorous statistical methods are needed to identify biologically informative prognostic gene sets. To address this problem, we developed Significance Analysis of Prognostic Signatures (SAPS which integrates standard prognostic tests with a new prognostic significance test based on stratifying patients into prognostic subtypes with random gene sets. SAPS ensures that a significant gene set is not only able to stratify patients into prognostically variable groups, but is also enriched for genes showing strong univariate associations with patient prognosis, and performs significantly better than random gene sets. We use SAPS to perform a large meta-analysis (the largest completed to date of prognostic pathways in breast and ovarian cancer and their molecular subtypes. Our analyses show that only a small subset of the gene sets found statistically significant using standard measures achieve significance by SAPS. We identify new prognostic signatures in breast and ovarian cancer and their corresponding molecular subtypes, and we show that prognostic signatures in ER negative breast cancer are more similar to prognostic signatures in ovarian cancer than to prognostic signatures in ER positive breast cancer. SAPS is a powerful new method for deriving robust prognostic biological signatures from clinically

  14. Evaluating Written Patient Information for Eczema in German: Comparing the Reliability of Two Instruments, DISCERN and EQIP.

    Megan E McCool

    Full Text Available Patients actively seek information about how to cope with their health problems, but the quality of the information available varies. A number of instruments have been developed to assess the quality of patient information, primarily though in English. Little is known about the reliability of these instruments when applied to patient information in German. The objective of our study was to investigate and compare the reliability of two validated instruments, DISCERN and EQIP, in order to determine which of these instruments is better suited for a further study pertaining to the quality of information available to German patients with eczema. Two independent raters evaluated a random sample of 20 informational brochures in German. All the brochures addressed eczema as a disorder and/or therapy options and care. Intra-rater and inter-rater reliability were assessed by calculating intra-class correlation coefficients, agreement was tested with weighted kappas, and the correlation of the raters' scores for each instrument was measured with Pearson's correlation coefficient. DISCERN demonstrated substantial intra- and inter-rater reliability. It also showed slightly better agreement than EQIP. There was a strong correlation of the raters' scores for both instruments. The findings of this study support the reliability of both DISCERN and EQIP. However, based on the results of the inter-rater reliability, agreement and correlation analyses, we consider DISCERN to be the more precise tool for our project on patient information concerning the treatment and care of eczema.

  15. The availability of reliable information about medicines in Serbia for health professionals summary of product characteristics

    Đukić Ljiljana C.


    Full Text Available Introduction Today, there are many drugs for the treatment of a large number of indicator areas. Significant financial resources are invested in research with the aim of introducing reliable therapeutics to therapy. Therefore, it is necessary to provide health care professionals exact information about new therapies. The overall process of scientific data, ideas and information exchange is possible through numerous communications of modern IT tools. Methodology According to the Law, key information on registered drug is included in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SPC for health professionals, which is harmonized with EU directives and regulations (SmPC.Protocol content and structure of the information provided in SPC is determined in the guidelines of the EU, therefore, a unique set of data is established for all the drugs registered in Serbia. Topic This paper presents the key segments of SPC, with special reference to the description of the regulations that are required for data related to indications, mechanism of action, dosage, contraindications, side effects, interactions and other important information regarding the profile of the drug, which are standardized and harmonized with the structure of identical documents which operate at the EU level, or EMEA. Conclusions SPC is the regulatory determined technical document on medicinal products in the RS in which there are listed scientifically proven, clinical and pharmacological data and information on the profile of the drug, which are essential for health professionals - doctors and pharmacists in the implementation of pharmacotherapy in our society. This document is the starting point for the development of applied Pharmacoinformatics and it includes a range of activities important for the development of appropriate manuals and makes available data and information for monitoring indicators of the national policy on drugs and modern effective drugs treatment.

  16. Waste container weighing data processing to create reliable information of household waste generation.

    Korhonen, Pirjo; Kaila, Juha


    Household mixed waste container weighing data was processed by knowledge discovery and data mining techniques to create reliable information of household waste generation. The final data set included 27,865 weight measurements covering the whole year 2013 and it was selected from a database of Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority, Finland. The data set contains mixed household waste arising in 6m(3) containers and it was processed identifying missing values and inconsistently low and high values as errors. The share of missing values and errors in the data set was 0.6%. This provides evidence that the waste weighing data gives reliable information of mixed waste generation at collection point level. Characteristic of mixed household waste arising at the waste collection point level is a wide variation between pickups. The seasonal variation pattern as a result of collective similarities in behaviour of households was clearly detected by smoothed medians of waste weight time series. The evaluation of the collection time series against the defined distribution range of pickup weights on the waste collection point level shows that 65% of the pickups were from collection points with optimally dimensioned container capacity and the collection points with over- and under-dimensioned container capacities were noted in 9.5% and 3.4% of all pickups, respectively. Occasional extra waste in containers occurred in 21.2% of the pickups indicating the irregular behaviour of individual households. The results of this analysis show that processing waste weighing data using knowledge discovery and data mining techniques provides trustworthy information of household waste generation and its variations.

  17. A highly reliable, autonomous data communication subsystem for an advanced information processing system

    Nagle, Gail; Masotto, Thomas; Alger, Linda


    The need to meet the stringent performance and reliability requirements of advanced avionics systems has frequently led to implementations which are tailored to a specific application and are therefore difficult to modify or extend. Furthermore, many integrated flight critical systems are input/output intensive. By using a design methodology which customizes the input/output mechanism for each new application, the cost of implementing new systems becomes prohibitively expensive. One solution to this dilemma is to design computer systems and input/output subsystems which are general purpose, but which can be easily configured to support the needs of a specific application. The Advanced Information Processing System (AIPS), currently under development has these characteristics. The design and implementation of the prototype I/O communication system for AIPS is described. AIPS addresses reliability issues related to data communications by the use of reconfigurable I/O networks. When a fault or damage event occurs, communication is restored to functioning parts of the network and the failed or damage components are isolated. Performance issues are addressed by using a parallelized computer architecture which decouples Input/Output (I/O) redundancy management and I/O processing from the computational stream of an application. The autonomous nature of the system derives from the highly automated and independent manner in which I/O transactions are conducted for the application as well as from the fact that the hardware redundancy management is entirely transparent to the application.

  18. 信息系统可靠性管理研究%Reliability Management for Information System

    李睿; 俞涛; 方明伦


    An integrated intelligent management is presented to help organizations manage many heterogeneous resources in their information system. A general architecture of management for information system reliability is proposed, and the architecture from two aspects, process model and hierarchical model, described. Data mining techniques are used in data analysis. A data analysis system applicable to real-time data analysis is developed by improved data mining on the critical processes. The framework of the integrated management for information system reliability based on real-time data mining is illustrated, and the development of integrated and intelligent management of information system discussed.

  19. Qt dispersion has no prognostic information for patients with advanced congestive heart failure and reduced left ventricular systolic function

    Brendorp, B; Elming, H; Jun, L;


    BACKGROUND: QT dispersion is a potential prognostic marker of tachyarrhythmic events and death, but it is unclear whether this applies to patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). METHODS AND RESULTS: Of the 1518 patients with advanced CHF and left ventricular dysfunction enrolled in the Danish...

  20. Evidence-informed case rates: paying for safer, more reliable care.

    De Brantes, François; Rastogi, Amita


    There is widespread dissatisfaction with the current modes of paying for health care. Created by Prometheus Payment, evidence-informed case rates (ECRs) are designed to create fair payments for all providers delivering care to a patient for a particular condition. ECRs would combine global fees with an allowance for complications and performance incentives.The authors model ECRs for two scenarios, acute myocardial infarction and diabetes. Their analysis shows that, under fee-for-service payments, a high proportion of the costs of care go toward potentially avoidable complications--some 30 percent of payments for acute myocardial infarctions and 60 percent of payment for diabetes care. They conclude that ECRs would hold the delivery system accountable for the technical risk it imputes on the total costs of care--for medical errors and potentially avoidable complications. Further, ECRs would create incentives for providers to deliver care that is safer, more reliable, and consistent with evidence-based guidelines.

  1. A Novel Evaluation Method for Building Construction Project Based on Integrated Information Entropy with Reliability Theory

    Bai, Xiao-ping; Zhang, Xi-wei


    Selecting construction schemes of the building engineering project is a complex multiobjective optimization decision process, in which many indexes need to be selected to find the optimum scheme. Aiming at this problem, this paper selects cost, progress, quality, and safety as the four first-order evaluation indexes, uses the quantitative method for the cost index, uses integrated qualitative and quantitative methodologies for progress, quality, and safety indexes, and integrates engineering economics, reliability theories, and information entropy theory to present a new evaluation method for building construction project. Combined with a practical case, this paper also presents detailed computing processes and steps, including selecting all order indexes, establishing the index matrix, computing score values of all order indexes, computing the synthesis score, sorting all selected schemes, and making analysis and decision. Presented method can offer valuable references for risk computing of building construction projects. PMID:23533352

  2. Accessibility and reliability of cutaneous laser surgery information on the World Wide Web.

    Bykowski, J L; Alora, M B; Dover, J S; Arndt, K A


    The World Wide Web has provided the public with easy and affordable access to a vast range of information. However, claims may be unsubstantiated and misleading. The purpose of this study was to use cutaneous laser surgery as a model to assess the availability and reliability of Web sites and to evaluate this resource for the quality of patient and provider education. Three commercial methods of searching the Internet were used, identifying nearly 500,000 possible sites. The first 100 sites listed by each search engine (a total of 300 sites) were compared. Of these, 126 were listed repeatedly within a given retrieval method, whereas only 3 sites were identified by all 3 search engines. After elimination of duplicates, 40 sites were evaluated for content and currency of information. The most common features included postoperative care suggestions, options for pain management or anesthesia, a description of the way in which lasers work, and the types of lasers used for different procedures. Potential contraindications to laser procedures were described on fewer than 30% of the sites reviewed. None of the sites contained substantiation of claims or referrals to peer-reviewed publications or research. Because of duplication and the prioritization systems of search engines, the ease of finding sites did not correlate with the quality of the site's content. Our findings show that advertisements for services exceed useful information.

  3. MEMS reliability

    Hartzell, Allyson L; Shea, Herbert R


    This book focuses on the reliability and manufacturability of MEMS at a fundamental level. It demonstrates how to design MEMs for reliability and provides detailed information on the different types of failure modes and how to avoid them.

  4. A reliable facility location design model with site-dependent disruption in the imperfect information context.

    Yun, Lifen; Wang, Xifu; Fan, Hongqiang; Li, Xiaopeng


    This paper proposes a reliable facility location design model under imperfect information with site-dependent disruptions; i.e., each facility is subject to a unique disruption probability that varies across the space. In the imperfect information contexts, customers adopt a realistic "trial-and-error" strategy to visit facilities; i.e., they visit a number of pre-assigned facilities sequentially until they arrive at the first operational facility or give up looking for the service. This proposed model aims to balance initial facility investment and expected long-term operational cost by finding the optimal facility locations. A nonlinear integer programming model is proposed to describe this problem. We apply a linearization technique to reduce the difficulty of solving the proposed model. A number of problem instances are studied to illustrate the performance of the proposed model. The results indicate that our proposed model can reveal a number of interesting insights into the facility location design with site-dependent disruptions, including the benefit of backup facilities and system robustness against variation of the loss-of-service penalty.

  5. Development and Validation of a Lifecycle-based Prognostics Architecture with Test Bed Validation

    Hines, J. Wesley [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Upadhyaya, Belle [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Sharp, Michael [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jeffries, Brien [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Nam, Alan [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Strong, Eric [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Tong, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Welz, Zachary [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Barbieri, Federico [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Langford, Seth [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Meinweiser, Gregory [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Weeks, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)


    On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for

  6. Reliability and Validity of the Clinical Dementia Rating for Community-Living Elderly Subjects without an Informant

    Ma Shwe Zin Nyunt


    Full Text Available Background: The Clinical Dementia Rating (CDR scale is widely used to assess cognitive impairment in Alzheimer's disease. It requires collateral information from a reliable informant who is not available in many instances. We adapted the original CDR scale for use with elderly subjects without an informant (CDR-NI and evaluated its reliability and validity for assessing mild cognitive impairment (MCI and dementia among community-dwelling elderly subjects. Method: At two consecutive visits 1 week apart, nurses trained in CDR assessment interviewed, observed and rated cognitive and functional performance according to a protocol in 90 elderly subjects with suboptimal cognitive performance [Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE Results: The CDR-NI scores (0, 0.5, 1 showed good internal consistency (Crohnbach's a 0.83-0.84, inter-rater reliability (κ 0.77-1.00 for six domains and 0.95 for global rating and test-retest reliability (κ 0.75-1.00 for six domains and 0.80 for global rating, good agreement (κ 0.79 with the clinical assessment status of MCI (n = 37 and dementia (n = 4 and significant differences in the mean scores for MMSE, MOCA and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (ANOVA global p Conclusion: Owing to the protocol of the interviews, assessments and structured observations gathered during the two visits, CDR-NI provides valid and reliable assessment of MCI and dementia in community-living elderly subjects without an informant.

  7. Tumor Necrosis Adds Prognostically Significant Information to Grade in Clear Cell Renal Cell Carcinoma: A Study of 842 Consecutive Cases From a Single Institution.

    Khor, Li-Yan; Dhakal, Hari P; Jia, Xuefei; Reynolds, Jordan P; McKenney, Jesse K; Rini, Brian I; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; Przybycin, Christopher G


    Tumor necrosis has been shown to be an independent predictor of adverse outcome in renal cell carcinoma. A modification of the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grading system for renal cell carcinomas has recently been proposed, which incorporates the presence of tumor necrosis into grade. The investigators proposing this system found that necrosis added significant prognostic information to ISUP grade. We attempted to describe our experience with the effect of tumor necrosis in relationship to nuclear grade by reviewing the slides from a large consecutive series of localized clear cell renal cell carcinomas from our institution and obtaining long-term clinical follow-up information (overall survival). Of the 842 clear cell renal cell carcinomas reviewed, 265 (31.5%) were ISUP grade 1 or 2, 437 (51.9%) were ISUP grade 3, and 140 (16.6%) were ISUP grade 4. Tumor necrosis was present in 177 (21%) cases. Five hundred and forty-seven (64.9%) cases were stage pT1, 83 (9.9%) were stage pT2, 193 (22.9%) were stage pT3a, and 19 (2.3%) were pT3b or higher. Median follow-up was 73.2 months (range 0.12 to 273.6), and 310 (36.8%) patients died. On univariable analysis, there was no significant difference in outcome for tumors of ISUP grades 1 to 3. After adjustment for age, tumor stage, and tumor size, ISUP grade 4 and necrosis were significant predictors of overall survival on multivariable analysis. When the recently proposed modified grading system incorporating tumor necrosis was applied to our data, there was no significant difference in overall survival between patients with modified grade 1 tumors and those with modified grade 2 tumors (P=0.31); however, there was a statistically significant difference between patients with modified grade 1 or 2 tumors and those with modified grade 3 tumors (P=0.04),and a substantial difference in outcome between those with modified grade 3 and modified grade 4 tumors (PISUP grade could be further prognostically

  8. Model-based Prognostics under Limited Sensing

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is crucial to providing reliable condition-based maintenance decisions. To obtain accurate predictions of component life, a variety of sensors are often...

  9. Eco-label conveys reliable information on fish stock health to seafood consumers.

    Nicolás L Gutiérrez

    Full Text Available Concerns over fishing impacts on marine populations and ecosystems have intensified the need to improve ocean management. One increasingly popular market-based instrument for ecological stewardship is the use of certification and eco-labeling programs to highlight sustainable fisheries with low environmental impacts. The Marine Stewardship Council (MSC is the most prominent of these programs. Despite widespread discussions about the rigor of the MSC standards, no comprehensive analysis of the performance of MSC-certified fish stocks has yet been conducted. We compared status and abundance trends of 45 certified stocks with those of 179 uncertified stocks, finding that 74% of certified fisheries were above biomass levels that would produce maximum sustainable yield, compared with only 44% of uncertified fisheries. On average, the biomass of certified stocks increased by 46% over the past 10 years, whereas uncertified fisheries increased by just 9%. As part of the MSC process, fisheries initially go through a confidential pre-assessment process. When certified fisheries are compared with those that decline to pursue full certification after pre-assessment, certified stocks had much lower mean exploitation rates (67% of the rate producing maximum sustainable yield vs. 92% for those declining to pursue certification, allowing for more sustainable harvesting and in many cases biomass rebuilding. From a consumer's point of view this means that MSC-certified seafood is 3-5 times less likely to be subject to harmful fishing than uncertified seafood. Thus, MSC-certification accurately identifies healthy fish stocks and conveys reliable information on stock status to seafood consumers.

  10. Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Reliability and Maintainability Model Users Guide. Final Report, May 1975-July 1977.

    Czuchry, Andrew J.; And Others

    This report provides a complete guide to the stand alone mode operation of the reliability and maintenance (R&M) model, which was developed to facilitate the performance of design versus cost trade-offs within the digital avionics information system (DAIS) acquisition process. The features and structure of the model, its input data…

  11. Incorporation of local dependent reliability information into the Prior Image Constrained Compressed Sensing (PICCS) reconstruction algorithm

    Vaegler, Sven; Sauer, Otto [Wuerzburg Univ. (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Stsepankou, Dzmitry; Hesser, Juergen [University Medical Center Mannheim, Mannheim (Germany). Dept. of Experimental Radiation Oncology


    The reduction of dose in cone beam computer tomography (CBCT) arises from the decrease of the tube current for each projection as well as from the reduction of the number of projections. In order to maintain good image quality, sophisticated image reconstruction techniques are required. The Prior Image Constrained Compressed Sensing (PICCS) incorporates prior images into the reconstruction algorithm and outperforms the widespread used Feldkamp-Davis-Kress-algorithm (FDK) when the number of projections is reduced. However, prior images that contain major variations are not appropriately considered so far in PICCS. We therefore propose the partial-PICCS (pPICCS) algorithm. This framework is a problem-specific extension of PICCS and enables the incorporation of the reliability of the prior images additionally. We assumed that the prior images are composed of areas with large and small deviations. Accordingly, a weighting matrix considered the assigned areas in the objective function. We applied our algorithm to the problem of image reconstruction from few views by simulations with a computer phantom as well as on clinical CBCT projections from a head-and-neck case. All prior images contained large local variations. The reconstructed images were compared to the reconstruction results by the FDK-algorithm, by Compressed Sensing (CS) and by PICCS. To show the gain of image quality we compared image details with the reference image and used quantitative metrics (root-mean-square error (RMSE), contrast-to-noise-ratio (CNR)). The pPICCS reconstruction framework yield images with substantially improved quality even when the number of projections was very small. The images contained less streaking, blurring and inaccurately reconstructed structures compared to the images reconstructed by FDK, CS and conventional PICCS. The increased image quality is also reflected in large RMSE differences. We proposed a modification of the original PICCS algorithm. The pPICCS algorithm

  12. Health Information Needs and Reliability of Sources Among Nondegree Health Sciences Students: A Prerequisite for Designing eHealth Literacy.

    Haruna, Hussein; Tshuma, Ndumiso; Hu, Xiao

    Understanding health information needs and health-seeking behavior is a prerequisite for developing an electronic health information literacy (EHIL) or eHealth literacy program for nondegree health sciences students. At present, interest in researching health information needs and reliable sources paradigms has gained momentum in many countries. However, most studies focus on health professionals and students in higher education institutions. The present study was aimed at providing new insight and filling the existing gap by examining health information needs and reliability of sources among nondegree health sciences students in Tanzania. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 15 conveniently selected health training institutions, where 403 health sciences students were participated. Thirty health sciences students were both purposely and conveniently chosen from each health-training institution. The selected students were pursuing nursing and midwifery, clinical medicine, dentistry, environmental health sciences, pharmacy, and medical laboratory sciences courses. Involved students were either in their first year, second year, or third year of study. Health sciences students' health information needs focus on their educational requirements, clinical practice, and personal information. They use print, human, and electronic health information. They lack eHealth research skills in navigating health information resources and have insufficient facilities for accessing eHealth information, a lack of specialists in health information, high costs for subscription electronic information, and unawareness of the availability of free Internet and other online health-related databases. This study found that nondegree health sciences students have limited skills in EHIL. Thus, designing and incorporating EHIL skills programs into the curriculum of nondegree health sciences students is vital. EHIL is a requirement common to all health settings, learning environments, and

  13. Reliability of the interRAI suite of assessment instruments: a 12-country study of an integrated health information system

    Gray Len


    Full Text Available Abstract Background A multi-domain suite of instruments has been developed by the interRAI research collaborative to support assessment and care planning in mental health, aged care and disability services. Each assessment instrument comprises items common to other instruments and specialized items exclusive to that instrument. This study examined the reliability of the items from five instruments supporting home care, long term care, mental health, palliative care and post-acute care. Methods Paired assessments on 783 individuals across 12 nations were completed within 72 hours of each other by trained assessors who were blinded to the others' assessment. Reliability was tested using weighted kappa coefficients. Results The overall kappa mean value for 161 items which are common to 2 or more instruments was 0.75. The kappa mean value for specialized items varied among instruments from 0.63 to 0.73. Over 60% of items scored greater than 0.70. Conclusion The vast majority of items exceeded standard cut-offs for acceptable reliability, with only modest variation among instruments. The overall performance of these instruments showed that the interRAI suite has substantial reliability according to conventional cut-offs for interpreting the kappa statistic. The results indicate that interRAI items retain reliability when used across care settings, paving the way for cross domain application of the instruments as part of an integrated health information system.

  14. Assembly and comparison of available solar hot water system reliability databases and information.

    Menicucci, David F. (Building Specialists, Inc., Albuquerque, NM)


    Solar hot water (SHW) systems have been installed commercially for over 30 years, yet few quantitative details are known about their reliability. This report describes a comprehensive analysis of all of the known major previous research and data regarding the reliability of SHW systems and components. Some important conclusions emerged. First, based on a detailed inspection of ten-year-old systems in Florida, about half of active systems can be expected to fail within a ten-year period. Second, valves were identified as the probable cause of a majority of active SHW failures. Third, passive integral and thermosiphon SHW systems have much lower failure rates than active ones, probably due to their simple design that employs few mechanical parts. Fourth, it is probable that the existing data about reliability do not reveal the full extent of fielded system failures because most of the data were based on trouble calls. Often an SHW system owner is not aware of a failure because the backup system silently continues to produce hot water. Thus, a repair event may not be generated in a timely manner, if at all. This final report for the project provides all of the pertinent details about this study, including the source of the data, the techniques to assure their quality before analysis, the organization of the data into perhaps the most comprehensive reliability database in existence, a detailed statistical analysis, and a list of recommendations for additional critical work. Important recommendations include the inclusion of an alarm on SHW systems to identify a failed system, the need for a scientifically designed study to collect high-quality reliability data that will lead to design improvements and lower costs, and accelerated testing of components that are identified as highly problematic.

  15. Informational support of operation reliability control system; Information sur le systeme de controle de fiabilite de l'exploitation

    Usoshin, V.A.; Egorov, I.F.; Grigoriev, B.A. [Gazprom (Russian Federation)


    The Russian JSC 'Gazprom' gas transport system is an extremely complicated global scale engineering structure. Transported natural gas, because of its combustibility and explosibility, ability to contaminate the atmosphere, is a source of an increased danger. When JSC 'Gazprom' gas transport system was created, a great number of technical facilities and technologies was used. It was being formed in many years and because of this part of technologies and equipment became outdated, in spite of constant JSC 'Gazprom' efforts, aimed at equipment modernization and introduction of new technologies. The number of equipment used is in itself the reason of the system reliability deterioration, if measures of rational redundancy and status monitoring are not taken in advance. The reliability of JSC 'Gazprom' gas transport system, being a single whole, can be considered in the following aspects: 1. Providing safe deliveries of gas to consumers. 2. Providing for sufficient redundancy of resources for damping seasonal and conjuncture fluctuations in the consumption of gas. 3. Minimization of losses, blow outs and contamination of environment. 4. Achievement of failure free operation in the conditions of limited resources, gradual wear and ageing of JSC 'Gazprom' gas transport system. 5. Minimization of a techno-genic stress upon the environment, created by JSC 'Gazprom' gas transport system facilities and allocated plots of land. 6. Minimization of the negative influence of natural factors (landslides, wash outs, earthquakes, permafrost and etc.) upon the normal operation of the gas transport system. 7. Planning the activity for the development and modernization of the gas transport system equipment and systems with the aim of providing for the increase of its reliability and economical indices. Even if this minimum of the notion of 'reliability' components is considered in application to JSC &apos

  16. [Experimental studies of reliability of symbolic information perception from the aviation LCD panel].

    Ivanov, A I; Lapa, V V; Davydov, V V; Riabinin, V A; Golosov, S Iu


    Results of tachistiscopic experiments on reliability of symbol recognition on LCD panel as a function of screen definition (640 x 480, 800 x 600 and 1024 x 768 pixels), angular size of a picture element (10, 15, 20 and 30 angular min) and luminance contrast (LC) with the background (0.2 to 1.4 standard units) are presented. The obtained quantitative relations indicate significance of the above parameters for recognition reliability. Symbols with the size of 30 angular min and LC of 0.5 were recognizable irrespective of screen definition in the study. Recognition of symbols 20 and 15 angular min of size was much dependent on screen definition and LC of symbols. For symbols of size 10 angular min and LC ≥ 1.0 the recognition probability did not exceed 0.59-0.7.

  17. Aircraft Anomaly Prognostics Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop Group will leverage its proven Electromechanical Actuator (EMA) prognostics methodology to develop an advanced model-based actuator prognostic reasoner...

  18. Development and Validation of a Lifecycle-based Prognostics Architecture with Test Bed Validation

    Hines, J. Wesley [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Upadhyaya, Belle [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Sharp, Michael [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jeffries, Brien [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Nam, Alan [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Strong, Eric [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Tong, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Welz, Zachary [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Barbieri, Federico [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Langford, Seth [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Meinweiser, Gregory [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Weeks, Matthew [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)


    On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for

  19. Multigene prognostic tests in breast cancer: past, present, future.

    Győrffy, Balázs; Hatzis, Christos; Sanft, Tara; Hofstatter, Erin; Aktas, Bilge; Pusztai, Lajos


    There is growing consensus that multigene prognostic tests provide useful complementary information to tumor size and grade in estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers. The tests primarily rely on quantification of ER and proliferation-related genes and combine these into multivariate prediction models. Since ER-negative cancers tend to have higher proliferation rates, the prognostic value of current multigene tests in these cancers is limited. First-generation prognostic signatures (Oncotype DX, MammaPrint, Genomic Grade Index) are substantially more accurate to predict recurrence within the first 5 years than in later years. This has become a limitation with the availability of effective extended adjuvant endocrine therapies. Newer tests (Prosigna, EndoPredict, Breast Cancer Index) appear to possess better prognostic value for late recurrences while also remaining predictive of early relapse. Some clinical prediction problems are more difficult to solve than others: there are no clinically useful prognostic signatures for ER-negative cancers, and drug-specific treatment response predictors also remain elusive. Emerging areas of research involve the development of immune gene signatures that carry modest but significant prognostic value independent of proliferation and ER status and represent candidate predictive markers for immune-targeted therapies. Overall metrics of tumor heterogeneity and genome integrity (for example, homologue recombination deficiency score) are emerging as potential new predictive markers for platinum agents. The recent expansion of high-throughput technology platforms including low-cost sequencing of circulating and tumor-derived DNA and RNA and rapid reliable quantification of microRNA offers new opportunities to build extended prediction models across multiplatform data.

  20. Power electronics reliability analysis.

    Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley


    This report provides the DOE and industry with a general process for analyzing power electronics reliability. The analysis can help with understanding the main causes of failures, downtime, and cost and how to reduce them. One approach is to collect field maintenance data and use it directly to calculate reliability metrics related to each cause. Another approach is to model the functional structure of the equipment using a fault tree to derive system reliability from component reliability. Analysis of a fictitious device demonstrates the latter process. Optimization can use the resulting baseline model to decide how to improve reliability and/or lower costs. It is recommended that both electric utilities and equipment manufacturers make provisions to collect and share data in order to lay the groundwork for improving reliability into the future. Reliability analysis helps guide reliability improvements in hardware and software technology including condition monitoring and prognostics and health management.

  1. Informed consent in contrast-enhanced CT. Understanding of risks and identification of possible prognostic factors; Patientenaufklaerung bei kontrastmittelgestuetzter CT. Risikoverstaendnis und Identifikation moeglicher Prognosefaktoren

    Roehrl, S.; Dendl, L.M.; Scharf, G.; Stroszczynski, C.; Schreyer, A.G. [University Medical Center Regensburg (Germany). Dept. of Radiology; Zeman, F. [University Medical Center Regensburg (Germany). Center for Clinical Studies


    Aim of our study was to assess understanding of risks associated with intravascular application of contrast media in patients undergoing CT examination. We wanted to evaluate epidemiologic and socio-economic prognostic factors for a higher understanding of risks. Additionally, we evaluated a possible correlation between an extensive, outcome-oriented oral informed consent and better understanding of risks. 120 patients distributed in 2 study arms participated in this prospective study. In study arm I, the treating physician was not informed that his patients participated in a study whereas the physician in study arm II knew about the survey. After the informed consent we performed a standardized, semi-structured interview to enquire the 3 most frequent risks of intravascular application of contrast agents (anaphylactoid reactions, nephropathy and thyrotoxic crisis) and epidemiologic data. The understanding of the risks was evaluated using a 6 point scale. Patients scored 3.73 points in study arm I and 4.93 points in arm II on average. The statistical difference between both study arms was highly significant (p < 0.001). In a combined logistic regression analysis, only ''higher education'' (p = 0.001) and participation in study arm II (p =0.001) showed a significant connection to a better understanding of risks. Patients profit from an outcome-oriented and individualized informed consent. Due to the significant correlation between educational level and understanding of risks, informed consent should be adjusted to the educational status of the individual patient, e.g. by using didactic aids or individualized information sheets.

  2. The reliability of manual reporting of clinical events in an anesthesia information management system (AIMS).

    Simpao, Allan F; Pruitt, Eric Y; Cook-Sather, Scott D; Gurnaney, Harshad G; Rehman, Mohamed A


    Manual incident reports significantly under-report adverse clinical events when compared with automated recordings of intraoperative data. Our goal was to determine the reliability of AIMS and CQI reports of adverse clinical events that had been witnessed and recorded by research assistants. The AIMS and CQI records of 995 patients aged 2-12 years were analyzed to determine if anesthesia providers had properly documented the emesis events that were observed and recorded by research assistants who were present in the operating room at the time of induction. Research assistants recorded eight cases of emesis during induction that were confirmed with the attending anesthesiologist at the time of induction. AIMS yielded a sensitivity of 38 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 8.5-75.5 %), while the sensitivity of CQI reporting was 13 % (95 % CI 0.3-52.7 %). The low sensitivities of the AIMS and CQI reports suggest that user-reported AIMS and CQI data do not reliably include significant clinical events.

  3. Reliable and robust transmission and storage techniques for medical images with patient information.

    Nergui, Myagmarbayar; Acharya, U Sripati; Acharya U, Rajendra; Yu, Wenwei


    There is an increased emphasis on the use of digital techniques in all aspects of human life today. Broadcast radio and television, cellular phone services, consumer and entertainment electronics etc are increasingly using digital signal processing techniques to improve the quality of service. Transmission and storage of documentation and images pertaining to patient records cannot remain an exception to this global trend. Hence, patient records (text and image information) are increasingly stored and processed in digital form. Currently, text and image information, which constitute two separate pieces of data are handled as different files. Thus, there is a possibility of the text and message information, pertaining to different patients, being interchanged and thus mishandled. This can be avoided by merging text and image information in such a manner that the two can be separated without perceptible damage to information contained in either file. Digital watermarking techniques can be used to interleave patient information with medical images. In this work, we have employed digital watermarking along with strong cryptographic protocols and powerful error correcting codes. This reduces the probability of sensitive patient information falling into the wrong hands and ensures information integrity when it is conveyed over noisy channels.

  4. Frontiers of reliability

    Basu, Asit P; Basu, Sujit K


    This volume presents recent results in reliability theory by leading experts in the world. It will prove valuable for researchers, and users of reliability theory. It consists of refereed invited papers on a broad spectrum of topics in reliability. The subjects covered include Bayesian reliability, Bayesian reliability modeling, confounding in a series system, DF tests, Edgeworth approximation to reliability, estimation under random censoring, fault tree reduction for reliability, inference about changes in hazard rates, information theory and reliability, mixture experiment, mixture of Weibul

  5. The Development of Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Simulations for Inclusion in Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization Frameworks

    Jeffrey C. Joe; Diego Mandelli; Ronald L. Boring; Curtis L. Smith; Rachel B. Shirley


    The United States Department of Energy is sponsoring the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, which has the overall objective of supporting the near-term and the extended operation of commercial nuclear power plants. One key research and development (R&D) area in this program is the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization pathway, which combines probabilistic risk simulation with thermohydraulic simulation codes to define and manage safety margins. The R&D efforts to date, however, have not included robust simulations of human operators, and how the reliability of human performance or lack thereof (i.e., human errors) can affect risk-margins and plant performance. This paper describes current and planned research efforts to address the absence of robust human reliability simulations and thereby increase the fidelity of simulated accident scenarios.

  6. Accuracy and reliability of Chile's National Air Quality Information System for measuring particulate matter: Beta attenuation monitoring issue.

    Toro A, Richard; Campos, Claudia; Molina, Carolina; Morales S, Raul G E; Leiva-Guzmán, Manuel A


    A critical analysis of Chile's National Air Quality Information System (NAQIS) is presented, focusing on particulate matter (PM) measurement. This paper examines the complexity, availability and reliability of monitoring station information, the implementation of control systems, the quality assurance protocols of the monitoring station data and the reliability of the measurement systems in areas highly polluted by particulate matter. From information available on the NAQIS website, it is possible to confirm that the PM2.5 (PM10) data available on the site correspond to 30.8% (69.2%) of the total information available from the monitoring stations. There is a lack of information regarding the measurement systems used to quantify air pollutants, most of the available data registers contain gaps, almost all of the information is categorized as "preliminary information" and neither standard operating procedures (operational and validation) nor assurance audits or quality control of the measurements are reported. In contrast, events that cause saturation of the monitoring detectors located in northern and southern Chile have been observed using beta attenuation monitoring. In these cases, it can only be concluded that the PM content is equal to or greater than the saturation concentration registered by the monitors and that the air quality indexes obtained from these measurements are underestimated. This occurrence has been observed in 12 (20) public and private stations where PM2.5 (PM10) is measured. The shortcomings of the NAQIS data have important repercussions for the conclusions obtained from the data and for how the data are used. However, these issues represent opportunities for improving the system to widen its use, incorporate comparison protocols between equipment, install new stations and standardize the control system and quality assurance.

  7. Validity and reliability testing of two instruments to measure breast cancer patients' concerns and information needs relating to radiation therapy

    Kristjanson Linda J


    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is difficult to determine the most effective approach to patient education or tailor education interventions for patients in radiotherapy without tools that assess patients' specific radiation therapy information needs and concerns. Therefore, the aim of this study was to develop psychometrically sound tools to adequately determine the concerns and information needs of cancer patients during radiation therapy. Patients and Methods Two tools were developed to (1 determine patients concerns about radiation therapy (RT Concerns Scale and (2 ascertain patient's information needs at different time point during their radiation therapy (RT Information Needs Scale. Tools were based on previous research by the authors, published literature on breast cancer and radiation therapy and information behaviour research. Thirty-one breast cancer patients completed the questionnaire on one occasion and thirty participants completed the questionnaire on a second occasion to facilitate test-retest reliability. One participant's responses were removed from the analysis. Results were analysed for content validity, internal consistency and stability over time. Results Both tools demonstrated high internal consistency and adequate stability over time. The nine items in the RT Concerns Scale were retained because they met all pre-set psychometric criteria. Two items were deleted from the RT Information Needs Scale because they did not meet content validity criteria and did not achieve pre-specified criteria for internal consistency. This tool now contains 22 items. Conclusion This paper provides preliminary data suggesting that the two tools presented are reliable and valid and would be suitable for use in trials or in the clinical setting.

  8. Impact of Transport Layer Protocols on Reliable Information Access in Smart Grids

    Shahid, Kamal; Saeed, Aamir; Kristensen, Thomas le Fevre


    Time is critical for certain types of dynamic information (e.g. frequency control) in a smart grid scenario. The usefulness of such information depends upon the arrival within a specific frame of time, which in other case may not serve the purpose and effect controller’s performance......-to-end delays at the cost of unreliable, best-effort data transportation service. The research question raised in this paper is thus, which is preferred for the delay-critical applications of smart grids, and to what degree of packet losses and round trip times, TCP is preferable to UDP and vice versa...... of events at grid assets as well as the information update strategy in one single metric which otherwise is not very intuitive and difficult to allow a similar useful comparison. Further, the analysis is concluded by providing a clear guide on the selection of the transport protocol to meet application...

  9. Minimal information: an urgent need to assess the functional reliability of recombinant proteins used in biological experiments

    de Marco Ario


    Full Text Available Abstract Structural characterization of proteins used in biological experiments is largely neglected. In most publications, the information available is totally insufficient to judge the functionality of the proteins used and, therefore, the significance of identified protein-protein interactions (was the interaction specific or due to unspecific binding of misfolded protein regions? or reliability of kinetic and thermodynamic data (how much protein was in its native form?. As a consequence, the results of single experiments might not only become questionable, but the whole reliability of systems biology, built on these fundaments, would be weakened. The introduction of Minimal Information concerning purified proteins to add as metadata to the main body of a manuscript would render straightforward the assessment of their functional and structural qualities and, consequently, of results obtained using these proteins. Furthermore, accepted standards for protein annotation would simplify data comparison and exchange. This article has been envisaged as a proposal for aggregating scientists who share the opinion that the scientific community needs a platform for Minimum Information for Protein Functionality Evaluation (MIPFE.

  10. The influence of informant characteristics on the reliability of family history interviews.

    Verweij, Kim H W; Derks, Eske M; Hendriks, Eva J E; Cahn, Wiepke


    Family history interviews are widely used in psychiatric research, as well as in genetic and twin studies, and provide a way to collect family history information quickly and economically. To obtain a valid assessment of family history, it is important to investigate which family member will be able to provide accurate information. Previous research shows that the validity of family history reporting can be influenced by characteristics of the informant, such as age, gender and personal history of psychiatric disorder. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of a subject's position in a pedigree on the validity of data collection. Family history data on diabetes and psychiatric disorders were collected in three generations of 33 families by interviewing both an index subject (3rd generation) and his or her mother (2nd generation). Mothers were shown to report higher rates of diabetes and psychiatric disorder in the family compared to the index subjects. There was no significant difference in the disease rate reported by male and female index subject. Mothers who experienced a depressive episode indicated significantly more family members as having a psychiatric disorder than mothers who never experienced such an episode. This could be explained by the presence of informant bias, but may also result from the fact that depression is a heritable disorder and is therefore actually more prevalent in these families. Our findings suggest that family interview data should be collected by interviewing subjects who have a central position in the pedigree and can therefore provide information on his/her own generation, the previous and the next. In addition, psychiatric status of the informant should be carefully addressed.

  11. Treatment of Passive Component Reliability in Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization FY 2010 Report

    Robert W Youngblood


    The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) pathway is a set of activities defined under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. The overarching objective of RISMC is to support plant life-extension decision-making by providing a state-of-knowledge characterization of safety margins in key systems, structures, and components (SSCs). A technical challenge at the core of this effort is to establish the conceptual and technical feasibility of analyzing safety margin in a risk-informed way, which, unlike conventionally defined deterministic margin analysis, is founded on probabilistic characterizations of SSC performance.

  12. A Framework for Reliable Reception of Wireless Metering Data using Protocol Side Information

    Melchior Jacobsen, Rasmus; Popovski, Petar


    the deterministic protocol structure to obtain side information and group the packets from the same meter. We derive the probability of falsely pairing packets from different senders in the simple case of no channel errors, and show through simulation and data from an experimental deployment the probability...

  13. Reliability of information-based integration of EEG and fMRI data: a simulation study.

    Assecondi, Sara; Ostwald, Dirk; Bagshaw, Andrew P


    Most studies involving simultaneous electroencephalographic (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data rely on the first-order, affine-linear correlation of EEG and fMRI features within the framework of the general linear model. An alternative is the use of information-based measures such as mutual information and entropy, which can also detect higher-order correlations present in the data. The estimate of information-theoretic quantities might be influenced by several parameters, such as the numerosity of the sample, the amount of correlation between variables, and the discretization (or binning) strategy of choice. While these issues have been investigated for invasive neurophysiological data and a number of bias-correction estimates have been developed, there has been no attempt to systematically examine the accuracy of information estimates for the multivariate distributions arising in the context of EEG-fMRI recordings. This is especially important given the differences between electrophysiological and EEG-fMRI recordings. In this study, we drew random samples from simulated bivariate and trivariate distributions, mimicking the statistical properties of EEG-fMRI data. We compared the estimated information shared by simulated random variables with its numerical value and found that the interaction between the binning strategy and the estimation method influences the accuracy of the estimate. Conditional on the simulation assumptions, we found that the equipopulated binning strategy yields the best and most consistent results across distributions and bias correction methods. We also found that within bias correction techniques, the asymptotically debiased (TPMC), the jackknife debiased (JD), and the best upper bound (BUB) approach give similar results, and those are consistent across distributions.

  14. VLSI Reliability in Europe

    Verweij, Jan F.


    Several issue's regarding VLSI reliability research in Europe are discussed. Organizations involved in stimulating the activities on reliability by exchanging information or supporting research programs are described. Within one such program, ESPRIT, a technical interest group on IC reliability was

  15. Dutch hospitals provide reliable "one click" patient information using a Quality Window.

    Van Rooy, Yvonne


    In 2014, the Dutch Association of Hospitals (Nederlandse Vereniging van Ziekenhuizen, NVZ) launched the "Quality Window" at general hospitals across the Netherlands. The Quality Window is an online platform for patients which shares a hospital's current and previous scores on ten quality indicators, from patient experience to employee satisfaction. The Quality Window therefore responds to the growing demand for information and transparency when it comes to hospital care and performance. Not only can patients access helpful information about a hospital's quality through the Quality Window, they can also compare results with other hospitals, the national average, and more. Many hospitals also take the opportunity to expand on how indicators work in practice and the actions being taken towards improvement. The Quality Window was developed with the help of hospitals and patients. Over the coming years it will be expanded to university hospitals across the country. General hospitals will also begin developing Quality Windows for specific patient groups, such as cancer patients.


    Joanna Zuchewicz


    The objective of the hereby paper is to indicate, on the one hand, the need for transformations in financial reporting as the basic source of information about the financial situation of an economic entity indispensable in the decision making process by its users, and on the other to provide the analysis of the adopted report-ing reconstruction directions validity, as suggested by international financial community. On the basis of comments and reservations presented by practitioners and the a...

  17. Evaluation of neural network robust reliability using information-gap theory.

    Pierce, S Gareth; Ben-Haim, Yakov; Worden, Keith; Manson, Graeme


    A novel technique for the evaluation of neural network robustness against uncertainty using a nonprobabilistic approach is presented. Conventional optimization techniques were employed to train multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks, which were then probed with an uncertainty analysis using an information-gap model to quantify the network response to uncertainty in the input data. It is demonstrated that the best performing network on data with low uncertainty is not in general the optimal network on data with a higher degree of input uncertainty. Using the concepts of information-gap theory, this paper develops a theoretical framework for information-gap uncertainty applied to neural networks, and explores the practical application of the procedure to three sample cases. The first consists of a simple two-dimensional (2-D) classification network operating on a known Gaussian distribution, the second a nine-lass vibration classification problem from an aircraft wing, and the third a two-class example from a database of breast cancer incidence.

  18. Comparative testing of reliability and audit utility of ordinal objective calculus complexity scores. Can we make an informed choice yet?

    Jaipuria, Jiten; Suryavanshi, Manav; Sen, Tridib K


    To assess the reliability of the Guy's Stone Score, the Seoul National University Renal Stone Complexity (S-ReSC) score and the S.T.O.N.E. scores in percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL), and assess their utility in discriminating outcomes [stone free rate (SFR), complications, need for multiple PCNL sessions, and auxiliary procedures] valid across parameters of experience of surgeon, independence from surgical approach, and variations in institution-specific instrumentation. A prospectively maintained database of two tertiary institutions was analysed (606 cases). Institutes differed in instrumentation, while the overall surgical team comprised: two trainees (experience 1000 cases). Scores were assigned and re-assigned after 4 months by one trainee and an expert surgeon. Inter-rater and test-retest agreement were analysed by Cohen's κ and intraclass correlation coefficient. Multivariate logistic regression models were created adjusting outcomes for the institution, comorbidity, Amplatz size, access tract location, the number of punctures, the experience level of the surgeon, and individual scoring system, and receiver operating curves were analysed for comparison. Despite some areas of inconsistencies, individually all scores had excellent inter-rater and test-retest concordance. On multivariable analyses, while the experience of the surgeon and surgical approach characteristics (such as access tract location, Amplatz size, and number of punctures) remained independently associated with different outcomes in varying combinations, calculus complexity scores were found consistently to be independently associated with all outcomes. The S-ReSC score had a superior association with SFR, the need for multiple PCNL sessions, and auxiliary procedures. Individually all scoring systems performed well. On cross comparison, the S-ReSC score consistently emerged to be more superiorly associated with all outcomes, signifying the importance of the distributional complexity of the

  19. Reliability Engineering

    Lazzaroni, Massimo


    This book gives a practical guide for designers and users in Information and Communication Technology context. In particular, in the first Section, the definition of the fundamental terms according to the international standards are given. Then, some theoretical concepts and reliability models are presented in Chapters 2 and 3: the aim is to evaluate performance for components and systems and reliability growth. Chapter 4, by introducing the laboratory tests, puts in evidence the reliability concept from the experimental point of view. In ICT context, the failure rate for a given system can be

  20. Prognostic biomarkers for oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Almangush, Alhadi; Heikkinen, Ilkka; Mäkitie, Antti A; Coletta, Ricardo D; Läärä, Esa; Leivo, Ilmo; Salo, Tuula


    Identifying informative prognostic biomarkers for oral tongue squamous cell carcinoma (OTSCC) is of great importance in order to better predict tumour behaviour and to guide treatment planning. Here, we summarise existing evidence regarding immunohistochemical prognostic biomarkers for OTSCC. A systematic search of the literature was performed using the databases of Scopus, Ovid Medline, Web of Science and Cochrane Library. All studies which had investigated the prognostic significance of immunohistochemical biomarkers in OTSCC during the period from 1985 to 2015 were retrieved. For the five most often evaluated biomarkers a random-effects meta-analysis on overall survival was performed, including those studies that provided the necessary statistical results. A total of 174 studies conducted during the last three decades were found, and in these 184 biomarkers were evaluated for the prognostication of OTSCC. The five biomarkers most frequently assessed were p53, Ki-67, p16, VEGFs and cyclin D1. In the meta-analyses, the most promising results of the prognostic power for OTSCC were obtained for cyclin D1. For studies of VEGF A and C the results were equivocal, but the pooled analysis of VEGF A separately showed it to be a useful prognosticator for OTSCC. There was no sufficient evidence to support p53, Ki-67 and p16 as prognostic biomarkers for OTSCC. Limitations in the quality of the published studies (e.g., small cohorts, lack of compliance with REMARK guidelines) are widespread. Numerous biomarkers have been presented as useful prognosticators for OTSCC, but the quality of the conduct and reporting of original studies is overall unsatisfactory which does not allow reliable conclusions. The value of two biomarkers (VEGF-A and cyclin D1) should be validated in a multicentre study setting following REMARK guidelines.

  1. German Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED: Reliability, Validity, and Cross-Informant Agreement in a Clinical Sample

    Wiegand-Grefe Silke


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The psychometric properties and cross-informant agreement of a German translation of the Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders (SCARED were assessed in a clinical sample Methods 102 children and adolescents in outpatient psychotherapy and their parents filled out the SCARED and Youth Self Report/Child Behaviour Checklist (YSR/CBCL. Results The German SCARED showed good internal consistency for both parent and self-report version, and proved to be convergently and discriminantly valid when compared with YSR/CBCL scales. Cross-informant agreement was moderate with children reporting both a larger number as well as higher severity of anxiety symptoms than their parents. Conclusion In conclusion, the German SCARED is a valid and reliable anxiety scale and may be used in a clinical setting

  2. The Amsterdam preoperative anxiety and information scale provides a simple and reliable measure of preoperative anxiety.

    Boker, Abdulaziz; Brownell, Laurence; Donen, Neil


    To compare three anxiety scales; the anxiety visual analogue scale (VAS), the anxiety component of the Amsterdam preoperative anxiety and information scale (APAIS), and the state portion of the Spielburger state-trait anxiety inventory (STAI), for assessment of preoperative anxiety levels in same day admission patients. Patients completed the three anxiety assessment scales both before and after seeing the anesthesiologist preoperatively. The scales used were the STAI, the six-question APAIS, and the VAS. APAIS was further subdivided to assess anxiety about anesthesia (sum A), anxiety about surgery (sum S) and a combined anxiety total (i.e., sum C = sum A + sum S). These scales were compared to one another. Pearson's correlation (pair-wise deletion) was used for validity testing. Cronbach's alpha analysis was used to test internal validity of the various components of the APAIS scale. A correlation co-efficient (r) > or = 0.6 and P scale sets were completed by 197 patients. There was significant and positive correlation between VAS and STAI r = 0.64, P anxiety components of the APAIS (sum C) and desire for information were 0.84 and 0.77 respectively. In addition to VAS, the anxiety component of APAIS (sum C) is a promising new practical tool to assess preoperative patient anxiety levels.

  3. Data integration and knowledge discovery in biomedical databases. Reliable information from unreliable sources

    A Mitnitski


    Full Text Available To better understand information about human health from databases we analyzed three datasets collected for different purposes in Canada: a biomedical database of older adults, a large population survey across all adult ages, and vital statistics. Redundancy in the variables was established, and this led us to derive a generalized (macroscopic state variable, being a fitness/frailty index that reflects both individual and group health status. Evaluation of the relationship between fitness/frailty and the mortality rate revealed that the latter could be expressed in terms of variables generally available from any cross-sectional database. In practical terms, this means that the risk of mortality might readily be assessed from standard biomedical appraisals collected for other purposes.

  4. Challenges and opportunities for informational societies from the present to become reliable learning and knowledge societies



    Full Text Available This article pretend to describe the principal social trends and cultural features that prevail today, too look the philosophical foundation of thinking, feel , living and to give an educative  response and accepted to the axiological reality  and cultural present. In modern western societies great paradoxes and contradictions coexist: economical growth, technological development and greater dimensions of freedom, but also great consumption, cultural deterioration, technological dependence and unique thought. Given this we talk about the great possibilities and at the same time of the terrible threats that exist in that modern information societies. In order to become acquainted with this reality, we have focused the analysis in 3 key aspects: the impact of digital devolution, the condition of culture in contemporary society, and the need of a “new education”.

  5. How do nurses and teachers perform breast self-examination: are they reliable sources of information?

    Ozvurmaz Safiye


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is the most common cause of cancer-related deaths among women worldwide. The aim of the present study was to determine and compare knowledge, behavior and attitudes among female nurses and teachers concerning breast self-examination (BSE. Methods Two-hundred and eighty nine women working in Aydin, Turkey (125 nurses and 164 teachers were included in the study. The data were collected using a questionnaire designed to measure the knowledge, attitudes and behavior of the groups. Analysis involved percentiles, χ2 tests, t tests and factor analysis. Results The knowledge of nurses about BSE was higher than that of teachers (81.5% versus 45.1%; p 0.05, whereas skills in performing self-examination were higher in nurses (p Conclusion We conclude that nurses and teachers should be supported with information enabling them to accomplish their roles in the community. To improve BSE practice, it is crucial to coordinate continuous and planned education.

  6. Validity and Reliability of Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Computerized Adaptive Tests in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

    Kasturi, Shanthini; Szymonifka, Jackie; Burket, Jayme C; Berman, Jessica R; Kirou, Kyriakos A; Levine, Alana B; Sammaritano, Lisa R; Mandl, Lisa A


    The aims of this study were to assess the construct validity and the test-retest reliability of Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System (PROMIS) computerized adaptive tests (CAT) in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Adults with SLE completed the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36, LupusQoL-US version ("legacy instruments"), and 14 selected PROMIS CAT. Using Spearman correlations, PROMIS CAT were compared with similar domains measured with legacy instruments. CAT were also correlated with the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment-Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SELENA-SLEDAI) disease activity and the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/American College of Rheumatology Damage Index (SDI) scores. Test-retest reliability was evaluated using ICC. There were 204 outpatients with SLE enrolled in the study and 162 completed a retest. PROMIS CAT showed good performance characteristics and moderate to strong correlations with similar domains in the 2 legacy instruments (r = -0.49 to 0.86, p < 0.001). However, correlations between PROMIS CAT and the SELENA-SLEDAI disease activity and SDI were generally weak and statistically insignificant. PROMIS CAT test-retest ICC were good to excellent, ranging from 0.72 to 0.88. To our knowledge, these data are the first to show that PROMIS CAT are valid and reliable for many SLE-relevant domains. Importantly, PROMIS scores did not correlate well with physician-derived measures. This disconnect between objective signs and symptoms and the subjective patient disease experience underscores the crucial need to integrate patient-reported outcomes into clinical care to ensure optimal disease management.

  7. The reliability of financial information of charitable organizations: an exploratory study based on the Benford’s Law

    Marco Antonio Figueiredo Milani Filho


    Full Text Available Benford's Law (BL is a logarithmic distribution which is useful to detect abnormal patterns of digits in number sets. It is often used as a primary data auditing method for detecting traces of errors, illegal practices or undesired occurrences, such as fraud and earning management. In this descriptive study, I analyzed the financial information (revenue and expenditure of the registered charitable hospitals located in Ontario and Quebec, which have the majority (71.4% of these organizations within Canada. The aim of this study was to verify the reliability of the financial data of the respective hospitals, using the probability distribution predicted by Benford’s Law as a proxy of reliability. The sample was composed by 1,334 observations related to 339 entities operating in the tax year 2009 and 328 entities in 2010, gathered from the Canada Revenue Agency’s database. To analyze the discrepancies between the actual and expected frequencies of the significant-digit, two statistics were calculated: Z-test and Pearson’s chi-square test. The results show that, with a confidence level of 95%, the data set of the organizations located in Ontario and Quebec have similar distribution to the BL, suggesting that, in a preliminary analysis, their financial data are free from bias.

  8. Operation algorithm of the information system of improving organizational and technological reliability of construction projects using energy efficient technologies

    Ginzburg Aleksandr Vital’evich


    Full Text Available The main source for the development of construction projects with energy-efficient technologies in use is investments. The traditional approaches of risk management: insurance, diversification and redundancy only raise the cost of the construction project, which has a negative impact on the investor’s decision to invest. In order to solve this problem an information system has been developed, which is based on the principle of insightful analysis of the potential “pure” risks and a list of recommendations of risk management. This tool allows identifying all the weaknesses of a construction project, improving the organizational and technological reliability, and imparting an understanding to the investor / a customer of the resources required for the project implementation.

  9. Skill and reliability of experimental GEFS ensemble forecast guidance designed to inform decision-making in reservoir management in California

    Scheuerer, Michael; Webb, Robert S.; Hamill, Thomas M.


    Many reservoirs operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) in California provide flood control as well as water supply, recreation and stream flow regulation. Operations for flood control follow seasonally specified elevations for an upper volume of reservoir storage with unused storage capacity designated for flood risk management and thus not available for water supply storage. In the flood control operation of these reservoirs, runoff is captured during rain events and then released soon after at rates that do not result in downstream flooding (typically over a 5 to 8 day period), resulting in evacuated storage space to capture runoff from the next potential storm. As part of the Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) partnership to more effectively balance flood and drought risks, we developed an experimental California medium-range precipitation forecast system based on NCEP GEFS reforecasts and Climatology-Calibrated Precipitation Analysis (CCPA). We have applied this experimental forecast system to predict the probability of day 5-10 precipitation accumulations at each CCPA grid point within California to exceed certain pre-specified thresholds. Discussions with flood and water supply managers indicate that forecast guidance for the very low risk of extreme precipitation for watersheds above reservoirs can be valuable for decision making. In this study, we assess the skill and reliability of this experimental forecast system to predict low probabilities of precipitation extreme events for select watersheds during recent winter precipitation seasons. Our analysis indicate there may be sufficient reliability in forecasts guidance for low probabilities of heavy precipitation events to inform decision making in reservoir management in select California river basins to manage flood risk while increasing water supply for consumptive use and ecosystem services.

  10. Pathohistological characteristics of myelodysplastic syndromes: Diagnostic and prognostic significance

    Marisavljević Dragomir


    procedure during MDS investigation, since it provides reliable information of cellularity, architectural disorganization, number of megakaryocytes and alterations of marrow stroma. In addition, PH analysis provides numerous important prognostic information.

  11. Reliability and relative weighting of visual and nonvisual information for perceiving direction of self-motion during walking

    Saunders, Jeffrey A.


    Direction of self-motion during walking is indicated by multiple cues, including optic flow, nonvisual sensory cues, and motor prediction. I measured the reliability of perceived heading from visual and nonvisual cues during walking, and whether cues are weighted in an optimal manner. I used a heading alignment task to measure perceived heading during walking. Observers walked toward a target in a virtual environment with and without global optic flow. The target was simulated to be infinitely far away, so that it did not provide direct feedback about direction of self-motion. Variability in heading direction was low even without optic flow, with average RMS error of 2.4°. Global optic flow reduced variability to 1.9°–2.1°, depending on the structure of the environment. The small amount of variance reduction was consistent with optimal use of visual information. The relative contribution of visual and nonvisual information was also measured using cue conflict conditions. Optic flow specified a conflicting heading direction (±5°), and bias in walking direction was used to infer relative weighting. Visual feedback influenced heading direction by 16%–34% depending on scene structure, with more effect with dense motion parallax. The weighting of visual feedback was close to the predictions of an optimal integration model given the observed variability measures. PMID:24648194

  12. Volume-Based F-18 FDG PET/CT Imaging Markers Provide Supplemental Prognostic Information to Histologic Grading in Patients With High-Grade Bone or Soft Tissue Sarcoma

    Andersen, Kim Francis; Fuglo, Hanna Maria; Rasmussen, Sine Hvid;


    The aim of the study is to assess the prognostic value of different volume-based calculations of tumor metabolic activity in the initial assessment of patients with high-grade bone sarcomas (BS) and soft tissue sarcomas (STS) using F-18 FDG PET/CT.A single-site, retrospective study from 2002...... to 2012 including 92 patients with histologically verified high-grade BS (N = 37) or STS (N = 55). All patients underwent a pretreatment F-18 FDG PET/CT scan. Clinical data were registered. Measurements of the accuracy of metabolic tumor volume with a preset threshold of 40% of the maximum standardized.......05, HR 3.37 [95% CI 1.02-11.11]). No significant results were demonstrated for MTV40%.Volume-based F-18 FDG PET/CT imaging markers in terms of pretreatment estimation of TLG provide supplemental prognostic information to histologic grading, with significant independent properties for prediction...

  13. CT-based texture analysis potentially provides prognostic information complementary to interim fdg-pet for patients with hodgkin's and aggressive non-hodgkin's lymphomas

    Ganeshan, B.; Miles, K.A.; Shortman, R.; Afaq, A.; Ardeshna, K.M.; Groves, A.M.; Kayani, I. [University College London, Institute of Nuclear Medicine, London (United Kingdom); Babikir, S. [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Human Health Division, Nuclear Medicine and Diagnostic Imaging Section, Vienna (Austria)


    The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of computed tomography texture analysis (CTTA) to provide additional prognostic information in patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) and high-grade non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). This retrospective, pilot-study approved by the IRB comprised 45 lymphoma patients undergoing routine 18F-FDG-PET-CT. Progression-free survival (PFS) was determined from clinical follow-up (mean-duration: 40 months; range: 10-62 months). Non-contrast-enhanced low-dose CT images were submitted to CTTA comprising image filtration to highlight features of different sizes followed by histogram-analysis using kurtosis. Prognostic value of CTTA was compared to PET FDG-uptake value, tumour-stage, tumour-bulk, lymphoma-type, treatment-regime, and interim FDG-PET (iPET) status using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox regression analysis determined the independence of significantly prognostic imaging and clinical features. A total of 27 patients had aggressive NHL and 18 had HL. Mean PFS was 48.5 months. There was no significant difference in pre-treatment CTTA between the lymphoma sub-types. Kaplan-Meier analysis found pre-treatment CTTA (medium feature scale, p=0.010) and iPET status (p<0.001) to be significant predictors of PFS. Cox analysis revealed that an interaction between pre-treatment CTTA and iPET status was the only independent predictor of PFS (HR: 25.5, 95% CI: 5.4-120, p<0.001). Specifically, pre-treatment CTTA risk stratified patients with negative iPET. CTTA can potentially provide prognostic information complementary to iPET for patients with HL and aggressive NHL. (orig.)

  14. Prognostics and health management of power electronics

    Alghassi, Alireza


    Prognostics and health management (PHM) is a major tool enabling systems to evaluate their reliability in real-time operation. Despite ground-breaking advances in most engineering and scientific disciplines during the past decades, reliability engineering has not seen significant breakthroughs or noticeable advances. Therefore, self-awareness of the embedded system is also often required in the sense that the system should be able to assess its own health state and failure records, and those ...

  15. Prognostics-based qualification of high-power white LEDs using Lévy process approach

    Yung, Kam-Chuen; Sun, Bo; Jiang, Xiaopeng


    Due to their versatility in a variety of applications and the growing market demand, high-power white light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have attracted considerable attention. Reliability qualification testing is an essential part of the product development process to ensure the reliability of a new LED product before its release. However, the widely used IES-TM-21 method does not provide comprehensive reliability information. For more accurate and effective qualification, this paper presents a novel method based on prognostics techniques. Prognostics is an engineering technology predicting the future reliability or determining the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of a product by assessing the extent of deviation or degradation from its expected normal operating conditions. A Lévy subordinator of a mixed Gamma and compound Poisson process is used to describe the actual degradation process of LEDs characterized by random sporadic small jumps of degradation degree, and the reliability function is derived for qualification with different distribution forms of jump sizes. The IES LM-80 test results reported by different LED vendors are used to develop and validate the qualification methodology. This study will be helpful for LED manufacturers to reduce the total test time and cost required to qualify the reliability of an LED product.

  16. Stromal genes add prognostic information to proliferation and histoclinical markers: a basis for the next generation of breast cancer gene signatures.

    Dwain Mefford

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: First-generation gene signatures that identify breast cancer patients at risk of recurrence are confined to estrogen-positive cases and are driven by genes involved in the cell cycle and proliferation. Previously we induced sets of stromal genes that are prognostic for both estrogen-positive and estrogen-negative samples. Creating risk-management tools that incorporate these stromal signatures, along with existing proliferation-based signatures and established clinicopathological measures such as lymph node status and tumor size, should better identify women at greatest risk for metastasis and death. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To investigate the strength and independence of the stromal and proliferation factors in estrogen-positive and estrogen-negative patients we constructed multivariate Cox proportional hazards models along with tree-based partitions of cancer cases for four breast cancer cohorts. Two sets of stromal genes, one consisting of DCN and FBLN1, and the other containing LAMA2, add substantial prognostic value to the proliferation signal and to clinical measures. For estrogen receptor-positive patients, the stromal-decorin set adds prognostic value independent of proliferation for three of the four datasets. For estrogen receptor-negative patients, the stromal-laminin set significantly adds prognostic value in two datasets, and marginally in a third. The stromal sets are most prognostic for the unselected population studies and may depend on the age distribution of the cohorts. CONCLUSION: The addition of stromal genes would measurably improve the performance of proliferation-based first-generation gene signatures, especially for older women. Incorporating indicators of the state of stromal cell types would mark a conceptual shift from epithelial-centric risk assessment to assessment based on the multiple cell types in the cancer-altered tissue.

  17. The internet for self-diagnosis and prognostication in ALS.

    Chen, Zhongbo; Turner, Martin R


    Persons with ALS, and those close to them, may use the internet to explore symptoms prior to formal diagnosis, and as a source of information about prognosis and treatment thereafter. We used an internet search engine to rank the sensitivity of a variety of symptom search terms a patient might use for the diagnosis of ALS/MND. We also studied search engine responses to questions about life expectancy and possible 'cure'. An internet search engine in relation to ALS currently lacks sensitivity, and results varied greatly with only minor differences in the search terms used. The prognostic information did not reflect the inherent heterogeneity. Results in relation to 'cure' were misleading and may promulgate false hopes. There is a need to guide those with ALS (and particularly their children) to sources of reliable web-based information in addition to open discussion.

  18. A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil


    Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

  19. A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Gorospe, George; Teubert, Christ; Quach, Cuong C.; Hogge, Edward; Darafsheh, Kaveh


    -Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

  20. Prognostic Performance Metrics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This chapter presents several performance metrics for offline evaluation of prognostics algorithms. A brief overview of different methods employed for performance...

  1. Prognostic indicators in alcoholic cirrhotic men

    Gluud, C; Henriksen, Jens Henrik Sahl; Nielsen, G


    information regarding development of variceal hemorrhage, even when easily obtained variables with known prognostic information were included [modified Child-Turcotte's criteria and incapacitation index (a weighted sum of days without normal health)]. During follow-up, 17 patients (29%) died. Applying Cox......'s regression analysis, large varices at endoscopy (p = 0.012) and hepatic vein pressure gradient (p = 0.019) contained significant prognostic information regarding death, in addition to the information contained in the modified Child-Turcotte's criteria and incapacitation index. In conclusion, prediction...

  2. The Accelerator Reliability Forum

    Lüdeke, Andreas; Giachino, R


    A high reliability is a very important goal for most particle accelerators. The biennial Accelerator Reliability Workshop covers topics related to the design and operation of particle accelerators with a high reliability. In order to optimize the over-all reliability of an accelerator one needs to gather information on the reliability of many different subsystems. While a biennial workshop can serve as a platform for the exchange of such information, the authors aimed to provide a further channel to allow for a more timely communication: the Particle Accelerator Reliability Forum [1]. This contribution will describe the forum and advertise it’s usage in the community.

  3. Prognostic laboratory markers of joint damage in rheumatoid arthritis

    Lindqvist, E; Henriksen, Karen Eberhardt; Bendtzen, K


    To investigate whether determination of a set of laboratory markers at baseline provides prognostic information on joint damage in hands and feet in rheumatoid arthritis.......To investigate whether determination of a set of laboratory markers at baseline provides prognostic information on joint damage in hands and feet in rheumatoid arthritis....

  4. Understanding low reliability of memories for neutral information encoded under stress: alterations in memory-related activation in the hippocampus and midbrain.

    Qin, S.; Hermans, E.J.; Marle, H.J.F. van; Fernandez, G.S.E.


    Exposure to an acute stressor can lead to unreliable remembrance of intrinsically neutral information, as exemplified by low reliability of eyewitness memories, which stands in contrast with enhanced memory for the stressful incident itself. Stress-sensitive neuromodulators (e.g., catecholamines) ar

  5. Understanding low reliability of memories for neutral information encoded under stress: alterations in memory-related activation in the hippocampus and midbrain.

    Qin, S.; Hermans, E.J.; Marle, H.J.F. van; Fernandez, G.S.E.


    Exposure to an acute stressor can lead to unreliable remembrance of intrinsically neutral information, as exemplified by low reliability of eyewitness memories, which stands in contrast with enhanced memory for the stressful incident itself. Stress-sensitive neuromodulators (e.g., catecholamines)

  6. Myelodysplastic syndrome: classification and prognostic systems

    Rosangela Invernizzi


    Full Text Available Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS are acquired clonal disorders of hematopoiesis, that are characterized most frequently by normocellular or hypercellular bone marrow specimens, and maturation that is morphologically and functionally dysplastic. MDS constitute a complex hematological problem: differences in disease presentation, progression and outcome have made it necessary to use classification systems to improve diagnosis, prognostication and treatment selection. On the basis of new scientific and clinical information, classification and prognostic systems have recently been updated and minimal diagnostic criteria forMDS have been proposed by expert panels. In addition, in the last few years our ability to define the prognosis of the individual patient with MDS has improved. In this paper World Health Organization (WHO classification refinements and recent prognostic scoring systems for the definition of individual risk are highlighted and current criteria are discussed. The recommendations should facilitate diagnostic and prognostic evaluations in MDS and selection of patients for new effective targeted therapies.

  7. Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

    Saha, Bhaskar; Celaya, Jose R.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.


    Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research field as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management information. This paper focuses on a prognostics application for electronics components within avionics systems, and in particular its application to an Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). This application utilizes the remaining useful life prediction, accomplished by employing the particle filter framework, leveraging data from accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. These tests induced thermal-electrical overstresses by applying thermal cycling to the IGBT devices. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

  8. SOX11 and TP53 add prognostic information to MIPI in a homogenously treated cohort of mantle cell lymphoma--a Nordic Lymphoma Group study

    Nordström, Lena; Sernbo, Sandra; Eden, Patrik;


    Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is an aggressive B cell lymphoma, where survival has been remarkably improved by use of protocols including high dose cytarabine, rituximab and autologous stem cell transplantation, such as the Nordic MCL2/3 protocols. In 2008, a MCL international prognostic index (MIPI......) was created to enable stratification of the clinical diverse MCL patients into three risk groups. So far, use of the MIPI in clinical routine has been limited, as it has been shown that it inadequately separates low and intermediate risk group patients. To improve outcome and minimize treatment...

  9. Met expression is an independent prognostic risk factor in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma

    J.B. Tuynman; S.M. Lagarde (Sjoerd); F.J.W. ten Kate (Fiebo); D.J. Richel (Dirk); J.J.B. van Lanschot (Jan)


    textabstractOesophageal adenocarcinoma is an aggressive malignancy with propensity for early lymphatic and haematogenous dissemination. Since conventional TNM staging does not provide accurate prognostic information, novel molecular prognostic markers and potential therapeutic targets are subject of

  10. The prognostic impact of the log odds of positive lymph nodes in colon cancer.

    Arslan, N C; Sokmen, S; Canda, A E; Terzi, C; Sarioglu, S


    This study aimed to investigate the prognostic impact of the log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS) in colon cancer. Four hundred and forty patients with colon cancer were divided into three each groups according to their lymph node ratio (LNR) and LODDS. Survival analysis was performed. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 70.2%. In univariate analysis age, pT and pN stage, tumour grade, lymphatic, venous and perineural invasion, surgical margin clearance, LNR and LODDS were significantly associated with OS. In multivariate analysis age, surgical margins, perineural invasion and LODDS were found to be independent prognostic factors. In subgroup analysis of patients with an inadequate number of examined lymph nodes (NELN) (n = 76) and node-negative patients (n = 210), LODDS retained its prognostic value, whereas the impact of LNR was not statistically significant (P = 0.063). The overall survival rates of node-negative patients in the LODDS groups 0, 1 and 2 were 81%, 74.2% and 50%, respectively (P = 0.020). LNR and LODDS classifications were both significantly associated with survival in Stage III colon cancer, but only LODDS was an independent prognostic factor. Conventional TNM staging for nodes (pN) and LNR status cannot reliably classify node-negative patients into homogeneous groups. LODDS provides more valuable information than LNR independently of the NELN. Colorectal Disease © 2014 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  11. Gearbox Reliability Collaborative Update (Presentation)

    Sheng, S.; Keller, J.; Glinsky, C.


    This presentation was given at the Sandia Reliability Workshop in August 2013 and provides information on current statistics, a status update, next steps, and other reliability research and development activities related to the Gearbox Reliability Collaborative.

  12. Prognostic indicators in acute burned patients–a review

    Sherif Emara


    Full Text Available Burn trauma is in need for prognostic indicators or admission scores. This aims for realistic documentation of the burn injury, expectation of the prognosis, and to facilitate a patient stratification to evaluate therapeutic strategies. A computer search through different medical websites was performed looking for articles correlating prognosis with different burn indices. These were carefully summarized and analyzed for this review. Variable studies were found related to that issue; the reliable indicators found had been classified as general or specific. All of them had certain clinical importance, but limitations are a common feature. All the listed indices are useful to serve in the only special clinical situations. We couldn't claim that they are actual prognostic indicator in burn victims. We believe that we still lack the proper prognostic indicator in burn patients. Researchers are invited for more effort to organize a more reliable prognostic indicator and scoring system for burn patients.

  13. Prognostic indicators in acute burned patients-a review

    Sherif Emara


    Burn trauma is in need for prognostic indicators or admission scores. This aims for realistic documentation of the burn injury, expectation of the prognosis, and to facilitate a patient stratification to evaluate therapeutic strategies. A computer search through different medical websites was performed looking for articles correlating prognosis with different burn indices. These were carefully summarized and analyzed for this review. Variable studies were found related to that issue; the reliable indicators found had been classified as general or specific. All of them had certain clinical importance, but limitations are a common feature. All the listed indices are useful to serve in the only special clinical situations. We couldn't claim that they are actual prognostic indicator in burn victims. We believe that we still lack the proper prognostic indicator in burn patients. Researchers are invited for more effort to organize a more reliable prognostic indicator and scoring system for burn patients.

  14. Improving the Prognostic Ability through Better Use of Standard Clinical Data - The Nottingham Prognostic Index as an Example.

    Klaus-Jürgen Winzer

    Full Text Available Prognostic factors and prognostic models play a key role in medical research and patient management. The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI is a well-established prognostic classification scheme for patients with breast cancer. In a very simple way, it combines the information from tumor size, lymph node stage and tumor grade. For the resulting index cutpoints are proposed to classify it into three to six groups with different prognosis. As not all prognostic information from the three and other standard factors is used, we will consider improvement of the prognostic ability using suitable analysis approaches.Reanalyzing overall survival data of 1560 patients from a clinical database by using multivariable fractional polynomials and further modern statistical methods we illustrate suitable multivariable modelling and methods to derive and assess the prognostic ability of an index. Using a REMARK type profile we summarize relevant steps of the analysis. Adding the information from hormonal receptor status and using the full information from the three NPI components, specifically concerning the number of positive lymph nodes, an extended NPI with improved prognostic ability is derived.The prognostic ability of even one of the best established prognostic index in medicine can be improved by using suitable statistical methodology to extract the full information from standard clinical data. This extended version of the NPI can serve as a benchmark to assess the added value of new information, ranging from a new single clinical marker to a derived index from omics data. An established benchmark would also help to harmonize the statistical analyses of such studies and protect against the propagation of many false promises concerning the prognostic value of new measurements. Statistical methods used are generally available and can be used for similar analyses in other diseases.

  15. Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Metric Report

    Cornhill, Dennis; Bharadwaj, Raj; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar


    This document outlines a set of metrics for evaluating the diagnostic and prognostic schemes developed for the Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR), a system-level reasoner that encompasses the multiple levels of large, complex systems such as those for aircraft and spacecraft. VIPR health managers are organized hierarchically and operate together to derive diagnostic and prognostic inferences from symptoms and conditions reported by a set of diagnostic and prognostic monitors. For layered reasoners such as VIPR, the overall performance cannot be evaluated by metrics solely directed toward timely detection and accuracy of estimation of the faults in individual components. Among other factors, overall vehicle reasoner performance is governed by the effectiveness of the communication schemes between monitors and reasoners in the architecture, and the ability to propagate and fuse relevant information to make accurate, consistent, and timely predictions at different levels of the reasoner hierarchy. We outline an extended set of diagnostic and prognostics metrics that can be broadly categorized as evaluation measures for diagnostic coverage, prognostic coverage, accuracy of inferences, latency in making inferences, computational cost, and sensitivity to different fault and degradation conditions. We report metrics from Monte Carlo experiments using two variations of an aircraft reference model that supported both flat and hierarchical reasoning.

  16. A systematic review of prognostic/end-of-life communication with adults in the advanced stages of a life-limiting illness: patient/caregiver preferences for the content, style, and timing of information.

    Parker, Sharon M; Clayton, Josephine M; Hancock, Karen; Walder, Sharon; Butow, Phyllis N; Carrick, Sue; Currow, David; Ghersi, Davina; Glare, Paul; Hagerty, Rebecca; Tattersall, Martin H N


    Evidence-based recommendations concerning how to discuss dying, life expectancy, and likely future symptoms with patients with a limited life expectancy and their families are lacking. The aim of this systematic review was to review studies regarding prognostic/end-of-life communication with adult patients in the advanced stages of a life-limiting illness and their caregivers. Relevant studies meeting the inclusion criteria were identified by searching computerized databases up to November 2004. One hundred twenty-three studies met the criteria for the full review, and 46 articles reported on patient/caregiver preferences for content, style, and timing of information. The majority of the research was descriptive. Although there were individual differences, patients/caregivers in general had high levels of information need at all stages of the disease process regarding the illness itself, likely future symptoms and their management, and life expectancy and information about clinical treatment options. Patient and caregiver information needs showed a tendency to diverge as the illness progressed, with caregivers needing more and patients wanting less information. Patients and caregivers preferred a trusted health professional who showed empathy and honesty, encouraged questions, and clarified each individual's information needs and level of understanding. In general, most patients/caregivers wanted at least some discussion of these topics at the time of diagnosis of an advanced, progressive, life-limiting illness, or shortly after. However, they wanted to negotiate the content and extent of this information.

  17. A Mobile Robot Testbed for Prognostics-Enabled Autonomous Decision Making

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The ability to utilize prognostic system health information in operational decision making, especially when fused with information about future operational,...

  18. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and...

  19. Machinery prognostics and prognosis oriented maintenance management

    Yan, Jihong


    This book gives a complete presentatin of the basic essentials of machinery prognostics and prognosis oriented maintenance management, and takes a look at the cutting-edge discipline of intelligent failure prognosis technologies for condition-based maintenance.  Latest research results and application methods are introduced for signal processing, reliability moelling, deterioration evaluation, residual life prediction and maintenance-optimization as well as applications of these methods.

  20. Measurement System Reliability Assessment

    Kłos Ryszard


    Full Text Available Decision-making in problem situations is based on up-to-date and reliable information. A great deal of information is subject to rapid changes, hence it may be outdated or manipulated and enforce erroneous decisions. It is crucial to have the possibility to assess the obtained information. In order to ensure its reliability it is best to obtain it with an own measurement process. In such a case, conducting assessment of measurement system reliability seems to be crucial. The article describes general approach to assessing reliability of measurement systems.

  1. 对会计信息可靠性的再思考%Reconsideration on the Reliability of Accounting Information

    罗书章; 叶陈毅; 陈爱英


      伴随着会计目标的变迁,会计信息质量的可靠性与相关性的分离不断加大,特别是随着公允价值计量的日渐完善,会计信息相关性成为理论和实务的主流,2006年以来, FASB 与IASB陆续完善联合概念框架,开始对可靠性进行重新表述。此次金融危机中,公允价值计量对会计信息质量的负面影响,从反面提醒我们,会计信息的可靠性仍然不可或缺。%With the evolution of accounting objectives , the gap between reliability and relevance becomes more and more wider.Especially with the maturity of fair value , the relevance has become the main trend in theory research and accounting practice .Since 2006 , FASB and IASB have perfected their conceptual framework step by step , in which they have revised reliability to faithful representation .After this financial crisis , the negative effect of fair value reminds us that we need to have a full reconsideration of reliability again .

  2. Power electronics reliability.

    Kaplar, Robert James; Brock, Reinhard C.; Marinella, Matthew; King, Michael Patrick; Stanley, James K.; Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley


    The project's goals are: (1) use experiments and modeling to investigate and characterize stress-related failure modes of post-silicon power electronic (PE) devices such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) switches; and (2) seek opportunities for condition monitoring (CM) and prognostics and health management (PHM) to further enhance the reliability of power electronics devices and equipment. CM - detect anomalies and diagnose problems that require maintenance. PHM - track damage growth, predict time to failure, and manage subsequent maintenance and operations in such a way to optimize overall system utility against cost. The benefits of CM/PHM are: (1) operate power conversion systems in ways that will preclude predicted failures; (2) reduce unscheduled downtime and thereby reduce costs; and (3) pioneering reliability in SiC and GaN.

  3. Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

    Goebel, Kai; Saxena, Abhinav; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita


    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

  4. Diagnostic and prognostic models: applications and methods

    Zuithoff, N.P.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313995494


    Prediction modelling, both diagnostic and prognostic, has become a major topic in clinical research and practice. Traditionally, clinicians intuitively combine and judge the documented patient information, on e.g. risk factors and test results, to implicitly assess the probability or risk of having

  5. Prognostics of Power MOSFET

    Celaya, Jose Ramon; Saxena, Abhinav; Vashchenko, Vladislay; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai Frank


    This paper demonstrates how to apply prognostics to power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor). The methodology uses thermal cycling to age devices and Gaussian process regression to perform prognostics. The approach is validated with experiments on 100V power MOSFETs. The failure mechanism for the stress conditions is determined to be die-attachment degradation. Change in ON-state resistance is used as a precursor of failure due to its dependence on junction temperature. The experimental data is augmented with a finite element analysis simulation that is based on a two-transistor model. The simulation assists in the interpretation of the degradation phenomena and SOA (safe operation area) change.

  6. Metabolic syndrome cluster does not provide incremental prognostic information in patients with stable cardiovascular disease: A post hoc analysis of the AIM-HIGH trial.

    Lyubarova, Radmila; Robinson, Jennifer G; Miller, Michael; Simmons, Debra L; Xu, Ping; Abramson, Beth L; Elam, Marshall B; Brown, Todd M; McBride, Ruth; Fleg, Jerome L; Desvigne-Nickens, Patrice; Ayenew, Woubeshet; Boden, William E

    Metabolic syndrome (MS) is a well-known risk factor for the development of cardiovascular (CV) disease; yet, controversy persists whether it adds incremental prognostic value in patients with established CV disease. This study was performed to determine if MS is associated with worse CV outcomes in patients with established CV disease treated intensively with statins. We performed a post hoc analysis of the Atherothrombosis Intervention in Metabolic Syndrome with Low HDL/High Triglycerides and Impact on Global Health Outcomes trial, in which patients with established CV disease and atherogenic dyslipidemia (n = 3414) were randomly assigned to receive extended release niacin or placebo during a mean 36-month follow-up, to assess whether the presence of MS or the number of MS components contributed to CV outcomes. The composite primary end point of CV events occurred in 15.1% of patients without MS vs 13.8%, 16.9%, and 16.8% of patients with MS in the subsets with 3, 4, and 5 MS components, respectively (corresponding adjusted hazard ratios 0.9, 1.1, and 1.1 relative to patients without MS), P = .55. Comparing subgroups with 3 vs 4 or 5 MS components, there was no significant difference in either the composite primary end point or secondary end points. Patients with diabetes mellitus had higher event rates, with or without the presence of MS. The presence of MS was not associated with worse CV outcomes in the AIM-HIGH population. The rate of CV events in statin-treated Atherothrombosis Intervention in Metabolic Syndrome with Low HDL/High Triglycerides and Impact on Global Health Outcomes patients with MS was not significantly influenced by the number of MS components. Copyright © 2017 National Lipid Association. All rights reserved.

  7. Equilibrating errors: reliable estimation of information transmission rates in biological systems with spectral analysis-based methods.

    Ignatova, Irina; French, Andrew S; Immonen, Esa-Ville; Frolov, Roman; Weckström, Matti


    Shannon's seminal approach to estimating information capacity is widely used to quantify information processing by biological systems. However, the Shannon information theory, which is based on power spectrum estimation, necessarily contains two sources of error: time delay bias error and random error. These errors are particularly important for systems with relatively large time delay values and for responses of limited duration, as is often the case in experimental work. The window function type and size chosen, as well as the values of inherent delays cause changes in both the delay bias and random errors, with possibly strong effect on the estimates of system properties. Here, we investigated the properties of these errors using white-noise simulations and analysis of experimental photoreceptor responses to naturalistic and white-noise light contrasts. Photoreceptors were used from several insect species, each characterized by different visual performance, behavior, and ecology. We show that the effect of random error on the spectral estimates of photoreceptor performance (gain, coherence, signal-to-noise ratio, Shannon information rate) is opposite to that of the time delay bias error: the former overestimates information rate, while the latter underestimates it. We propose a new algorithm for reducing the impact of time delay bias error and random error, based on discovering, and then using that size of window, at which the absolute values of these errors are equal and opposite, thus cancelling each other, allowing minimally biased measurement of neural coding.

  8. Health Literacy INDEX: development, reliability, and validity of a new tool for evaluating the health literacy demands of health information materials.

    Kaphingst, Kimberly A; Kreuter, Matthew W; Casey, Chris; Leme, Luisa; Thompson, Tess; Cheng, Meng-Ru; Jacobsen, Heather; Sterling, Ryan; Oguntimein, Joy; Filler, Carl; Culbert, Arthur; Rooney, Megan; Lapka, Christy


    There is no consensus on how best to assess the health literacy demands of health information materials. Comprehensive, reliable, and valid assessment tools are needed. The authors report on the development, refinement, and testing of Health Literacy INDEX, a new tool reflecting empirical evidence and best practices. INDEX is comprised of 63 indicators organized into 10 criteria: plain language, clear purpose, supporting graphics, user involvement, skill-based learning, audience appropriateness, user instruction, development details, evaluation methods, and strength of evidence. In a sample of 100 materials, intercoder agreement was high: 90% or better for 52% of indicators, and above 80% for nearly all others. Overall scores generated by INDEX were highly correlated with average ratings from 12 health literacy experts (r = 0.89, p Literacy INDEX is a comprehensive tool with evidence for reliability and validity that can be used to evaluate the health literacy demands of health information materials. Although improvement in health information materials is just one aspect of mitigating the effects of limited health literacy on health outcomes, it is an essential step toward a more health literate public.

  9. Grid reliability

    Saiz, P; Rocha, R; Andreeva, J


    We are offering a system to track the efficiency of different components of the GRID. We can study the performance of both the WMS and the data transfers At the moment, we have set different parts of the system for ALICE, ATLAS, CMS and LHCb. None of the components that we have developed are VO specific, therefore it would be very easy to deploy them for any other VO. Our main goal is basically to improve the reliability of the GRID. The main idea is to discover as soon as possible the different problems that have happened, and inform the responsible. Since we study the jobs and transfers issued by real users, we see the same problems that users see. As a matter of fact, we see even more problems than the end user does, since we are also interested in following up the errors that GRID components can overcome by themselves (like for instance, in case of a job failure, resubmitting the job to a different site). This kind of information is very useful to site and VO administrators. They can find out the efficien...

  10. Prognostics and health management of engineering systems an introduction

    Kim, Nam-Ho; Choi, Joo-Ho


    This book introduces the methods for predicting the future behavior of a system’s health and the remaining useful life to determine an appropriate maintenance schedule. The authors introduce the history, industrial applications, algorithms, and benefits and challenges of PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) to help readers understand this highly interdisciplinary engineering approach that incorporates sensing technologies, physics of failure, machine learning, modern statistics, and reliability engineering. It is ideal for beginners because it introduces various prognostics algorithms and explains their attributes, pros and cons in terms of model definition, model parameter estimation, and ability to handle noise and bias in data, allowing readers to select the appropriate methods for their fields of application. Among the many topics discussed in-depth are: • Prognostics tutorials using least-squares • Bayesian inference and parameter estimation • Physics-based prognostics algorithms including non...

  11. Software reliability

    Bendell, A


    Software Reliability reviews some fundamental issues of software reliability as well as the techniques, models, and metrics used to predict the reliability of software. Topics covered include fault avoidance, fault removal, and fault tolerance, along with statistical methods for the objective assessment of predictive accuracy. Development cost models and life-cycle cost models are also discussed. This book is divided into eight sections and begins with a chapter on adaptive modeling used to predict software reliability, followed by a discussion on failure rate in software reliability growth mo

  12. Prognostic Value of Colorectal Cancer Biomarkers

    Paolo Bianchi


    Full Text Available Despite the large amount of data in cancer biology and many studies into the likely survival of colorectal cancer (CRC patients, knowledge regarding the issue of CRC prognostic biomarkers remains poor. The Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM staging system continues to be the most powerful and reliable predictor of the clinical outcome of CRC patients. The exponential increase of knowledge in the field of molecular genetics has lead to the identification of specific alterations involved in the malignant progression. Many of these genetic alterations were proposed as biomarkers which could be used in clinical practice to estimate CRC prognosis. Recently there has been an explosive increase in the number of putative biomarkers able to predict the response to specific adjuvant treatment. In this review we explore and summarize data concerning prognostic and predictive biomarkers and we attempt to shed light on recent research that could lead to the emergence of new biomarkers in CRC.

  13. Prognostic categories and timing of negative prognostic communication from critical care physicians to family members at end-of-life in an intensive care unit.

    Gutierrez, Karen M


    Negative prognostic communication is often delayed in intensive care units, which limits time for families to prepare for end-of-life. This descriptive study, informed by ethnographic methods, was focused on exploring critical care physician communication of negative prognoses to families and identifying timing influences. Prognostic communication of critical care physicians to nurses and family members was observed and physicians and family members were interviewed. Physician perception of prognostic certainty, based on an accumulation of empirical data, and the perceived need for decision-making, drove the timing of prognostic communication, rather than family needs. Although prognoses were initially identified using intuitive knowledge for patients in one of the six identified prognostic categories, utilizing decision-making to drive prognostic communication resulted in delayed prognostic communication to families until end-of-life (EOL) decisions could be justified with empirical data. Providers will better meet the needs of families who desire earlier prognostic information by separating prognostic communication from decision-making and communicating the possibility of a poor prognosis based on intuitive knowledge, while acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in prognostication. This sets the stage for later prognostic discussions focused on EOL decisions, including limiting or withdrawing treatment, which can be timed when empirical data substantiate intuitive prognoses. This allows additional time for families to anticipate and prepare for end-of-life decision-making.

  14. The importance of reliable information exchange in emergency practices: a misunderstanding that was uncovered before it was too late.

    Nordby, Halvor


    Many medical emergency practices are regulated by written procedures that normally provide reliable guidelines for action. In some cases, however, the consequences of following rule-based instructions can have unintended negative consequences. The article discusses a case - described on a type level - where the consequences of following a rule formulation could have been fatal. A weak and elderly patient has cardiac arrest, and a Do Not Resuscitate (DNR) clause is written in the patient's medical record. Paramedics at the scene cannot see that the patient's general appearance match conditions which would indicate the DNR clause, so they start cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), and the patient survives. This turns out to be a crucial decision. The DNR clause is from an earlier bout with serious disease from which the patient has recovered, against all odds, and someone has forgotten to remove the clause from the medical record. In order to be able to interpret the validity of written guidelines, paramedics and other health workers need to develop personal skills that transcend the ability simply to follow written instructions. Within traditional virtue ethics, personal judgment is conceived of as crucial for being able to make 'good' autonomous decisions. Virtue ethical analyses, decision-making abilities and non-technical communication skills are important as conceptual tools when health workers need to make difficult clinical decisions. The case study accentuates the significance of prudent judgment in medical practice. In the case described, the consequence of trusting the written advance directive could have been fatal, but the point is general: for the purpose of achieving excellent organizational performance, it is insufficient for health workers to rely uncritically on rules and procedures. Even the clearest rule formulations must be interpreted contextually in order to determine ethically correct behavior and avoid potential negative consequences that are

  15. The enzymatic nature of an anonymous protein sequence cannot reliably be inferred from superfamily level structural information alone.

    Roche, Daniel Barry; Brüls, Thomas


    As the largest fraction of any proteome does not carry out enzymatic functions, and in order to leverage 3D structural data for the annotation of increasingly higher volumes of sequence data, we wanted to assess the strength of the link between coarse grained structural data (i.e., homologous superfamily level) and the enzymatic versus non-enzymatic nature of protein sequences. To probe this relationship, we took advantage of 41 phylogenetically diverse (encompassing 11 distinct phyla) genomes recently sequenced within the GEBA initiative, for which we integrated structural information, as defined by CATH, with enzyme level information, as defined by Enzyme Commission (EC) numbers. This analysis revealed that only a very small fraction (about 1%) of domain sequences occurring in the analyzed genomes was found to be associated with homologous superfamilies strongly indicative of enzymatic function. Resorting to less stringent criteria to define enzyme versus non-enzyme biased structural classes or excluding highly prevalent folds from the analysis had only modest effect on this proportion. Thus, the low genomic coverage by structurally anchored protein domains strongly associated to catalytic activities indicates that, on its own, the power of coarse grained structural information to infer the general property of being an enzyme is rather limited.

  16. Experimental Validation of a Prognostic Health Management System for Electro-Mechanical Actuators

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The work described herein is aimed to advance prognostic health management solutions for electro-mechanical actuators and, thus, increase their reliability and...

  17. The Need for Uncertainty: A Case for Prognostic Silence.

    Han, Paul K


    Disclosure of prognosis in end-of-life care is a practice that is widely and increasingly recommended. However, prognostic disclosure is known to be resisted by many dying persons and by physicians, who instead engage in a "collusion of silence"-discussing prognosis either not at all or in vague, indirect terms. Debates about the ethics of prognostic disclosure and non-disclosure have tended to focus on their relative benefits and harms, or on the psychological acceptability of prognostic information to dying persons. Unaddressed, however, is a more fundamental assumption upon which the practice of prognostic disclosure depends: that prognostic certainty is what dying persons ultimately need. In this essay I question this assumption. Reflecting on the experience of my father's recent death, I argue that prognostic certainty is not only unattainable but existentially irrelevant to many dying persons, and that prognostic uncertainty can be a greater need. Respect for individuals' existential need for uncertainty justifies prognostic silence and enables dying persons-as well as the loved ones and clinicians who care for them-to be open to new possibilities of finding meaning at the end of life.

  18. Access to reliable information about long-term prognosis influences clinical opinion on use of lifesaving intervention.

    Stephen Honeybul

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Decompressive craniectomy has been traditionally used as a lifesaving rescue treatment in severe traumatic brain injury (TBI. This study assessed whether objective information on long-term prognosis would influence healthcare workers' opinion about using decompressive craniectomy as a lifesaving procedure for patients with severe TBI. METHOD: A two-part structured interview was used to assess the participants' opinion to perform decompressive craniectomy for three patients who had very severe TBI. Their opinion was assessed before and after knowing the predicted and observed risks of an unfavourable long-term neurological outcome in various scenarios. RESULTS: Five hundred healthcare workers with a wide variety of clinical backgrounds participated. The participants were significantly more likely to recommend decompressive craniectomy for their patients than for themselves (mean difference in visual analogue scale [VAS] -1.5, 95% confidence interval -1.3 to -1.6, especially when the next of kin of the patients requested intervention. Patients' preferences were more similar to patients who had advance directives. The participants' preferences to perform the procedure for themselves and their patients both significantly reduced after knowing the predicted risks of unfavourable outcomes, and the changes in attitude were consistent across different specialties, amount of experience in caring for similar patients, religious backgrounds, and positions in the specialty of the participants. CONCLUSIONS: Access to objective information on risk of an unfavourable long-term outcome influenced healthcare workers' decision to recommend decompressive craniectomy, considered as a lifesaving procedure, for patients with very severe TBI.

  19. Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

    Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie


    International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel ( identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

  20. Sounds produced by the cichlid fish Metriaclima zebra allow reliable estimation of size and provide information on individual identity.

    Bertucci, F; Attia, J; Beauchaud, M; Mathevon, N


    Sounds produced by male cichlids Metriaclima zebra during aggressive interactions were recorded to conduct a detailed analysis and to search for potential individual acoustic signatures. Fish from two different size groups (small and large individuals) were analysed. The two groups were significantly different for all acoustic variables considered; six of seven features demonstrated a significant interindividual variability and most of them were correlated with the size of the emitter. A cross-validated and permuted discriminant function analysis (pDFA) separated the two groups and correctly classified around 50% of the sounds to the correct individuals. Acoustic features that best distinguished among males were the instantaneous frequency of sounds and the modulation of pulse amplitude. These results suggest that acoustic signals could bear information about individual identity. The long-term stability of this signature is likely to be weak since the signature of a growing individual may change over time.

  1. Reliability and safety engineering

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Karanki, Durga Rao


    Reliability and safety are core issues that must be addressed throughout the life cycle of engineering systems. Reliability and Safety Engineering presents an overview of the basic concepts, together with simple and practical illustrations. The authors present reliability terminology in various engineering fields, viz.,electronics engineering, software engineering, mechanical engineering, structural engineering and power systems engineering. The book describes the latest applications in the area of probabilistic safety assessment, such as technical specification optimization, risk monitoring and risk informed in-service inspection. Reliability and safety studies must, inevitably, deal with uncertainty, so the book includes uncertainty propagation methods: Monte Carlo simulation, fuzzy arithmetic, Dempster-Shafer theory and probability bounds. Reliability and Safety Engineering also highlights advances in system reliability and safety assessment including dynamic system modeling and uncertainty management. Cas...

  2. Life cycle Prognostic Model Development and Initial Application Results

    Jeffries, Brien; Hines, Wesley; Nam, Alan; Sharp, Michael; Upadhyaya, Belle [The University of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States)


    In order to obtain more accurate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimates based on empirical modeling, a Lifecycle Prognostics algorithm was developed that integrates various prognostic models. These models can be categorized into three types based on the type of data they process. The application of multiple models takes advantage of the most useful information available as the system or component operates through its lifecycle. The Lifecycle Prognostics is applied to an impeller test bed, and the initial results serve as a proof of concept.

  3. Reliability Estimation for Rolling Bearings Based on Virtual Information%基于虚拟信息的滚动轴承可靠性估计

    楼洪梁; 陈磊; 李兴林; 但召江; 陈炳顺


    为了提高轴承截尾时间点的可靠度估计的可信度与稳定性,在滚动轴承截尾试验中出现无失效数据时,提出了在每个截尾时间点的可靠度估计过程中引入前一个截尾时间点无失效样本的虚拟失效信息的可靠度计算方法。经实例分析证明,在不同超参数取值下,采用该方法得到的特征寿命和形状参数估计值波动最小,具有更好的稳定性。%In order to improve credibility and stability of reliability estimation for censored time point of bearings,when the zero -failure data appeared in rolling bearing censored test,the virtual failure information of zero -failure sample in previous censored time point is introduced during reliability estimation process for each censored time point.The exam-ple analysis proof that the estimation value of characteristics life and shape parameter has the smallest fluctuation under different hyper parameters,and the method is better than other methods in stability.

  4. 76 FR 23171 - Electric Reliability Organization Interpretations of Interconnection Reliability Operations and...


    ... the system remains functional, the information can be compelled by the Reliability Coordinator. \\32... reliability coordinator and neighboring systems upon request, or when the loss of the communication channel... (Technical Information), Office of Electric Reliability, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, 888...

  5. Reporting methods in studies developing prognostic models in cancer: a review

    Waters Rachel


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Development of prognostic models enables identification of variables that are influential in predicting patient outcome and the use of these multiple risk factors in a systematic, reproducible way according to evidence based methods. The reliability of models depends on informed use of statistical methods, in combination with prior knowledge of disease. We reviewed published articles to assess reporting and methods used to develop new prognostic models in cancer. Methods We developed a systematic search string and identified articles from PubMed. Forty-seven articles were included that satisfied the following inclusion criteria: published in 2005; aiming to predict patient outcome; presenting new prognostic models in cancer with outcome time to an event and including a combination of at least two separate variables; and analysing data using multivariable analysis suitable for time to event data. Results In 47 studies, prospective cohort or randomised controlled trial data were used for model development in only 33% (15 of studies. In 30% (14 of the studies insufficient data were available, having fewer than 10 events per variable (EPV used in model development. EPV could not be calculated in a further 40% (19 of the studies. The coding of candidate variables was only reported in 68% (32 of the studies. Although use of continuous variables was reported in all studies, only one article reported using recommended methods of retaining all these variables as continuous without categorisation. Statistical methods for selection of variables in the multivariate modelling were often flawed. A method that is not recommended, namely, using statistical significance in univariate analysis as a pre-screening test to select variables for inclusion in the multivariate model, was applied in 48% (21 of the studies. Conclusions We found that published prognostic models are often characterised by both use of inappropriate methods for development

  6. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    Agarwal, Vivek [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lybeck, Nancy J. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Pham, Binh [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rusaw, Richard [Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Palo Alto, CA (United States); Bickford, Randall [Expert Microsystems, Orangevale, CA (United States)


    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  7. Doubt and belief in physicians' ability to prognosticate during critical illness: the perspective of surrogate decision makers.

    Zier, Lucas S; Burack, Jeffrey H; Micco, Guy; Chipman, Anne K; Frank, James A; Luce, John M; White, Douglas B


    Although discussing a prognosis is a duty of physicians caring for critically ill patients, little is known about surrogate decision-makers' beliefs about physicians' ability to prognosticate. We sought to determine: 1) surrogates' beliefs about whether physicians can accurately prognosticate for critically ill patients; and 2) how individuals use prognostic information in their role as surrogate decision-makers. Multicenter study in intensive care units of a public hospital, a tertiary care hospital, and a veterans' hospital. We conducted semistructured interviews with 50 surrogate decision-makers of critically ill patients. We analyzed the interview transcripts using grounded theory methods to inductively develop a framework to describe surrogates' beliefs about physicians' ability to prognosticate. Validation methods included triangulation by multidisciplinary analysis and member checking. Overall, 88% (44 of 50) of surrogates expressed doubt about physicians' ability to prognosticate for critically ill patients. Four distinct themes emerged that explained surrogates' doubts about prognostic accuracy: a belief that God could alter the course of the illness, a belief that predicting the future is inherently uncertain, prior experiences where physicians' prognostications were inaccurate, and experiences with prognostication during the patient's intensive care unit stay. Participants also identified several factors that led to belief in physicians' prognostications, such as receiving similar prognostic estimates from multiple physicians and prior experiences with accurate prognostication. Surrogates' doubts about prognostic accuracy did not prevent them from wanting prognostic information. Instead, most surrogate decision-makers view physicians' prognostications as rough estimates that are valuable in informing decisions, but are not determinative. Surrogates identified the act of prognostic disclosure as a key step in preparing emotionally and practically for the

  8. 2017 NREL Photovoltaic Reliability Workshop

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)


    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Reliability Workshop (PVRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology -- both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  9. Specific response to herbivore-induced de novo synthesized plant volatiles provides reliable information for host plant selection in a moth.

    Zakir, Ali; Bengtsson, Marie; Sadek, Medhat M; Hansson, Bill S; Witzgall, Peter; Anderson, Peter


    Animals depend on reliable sensory information for accurate behavioural decisions. For herbivorous insects it is crucial to find host plants for feeding and reproduction, and these insects must be able to differentiate suitable from unsuitable plants. Volatiles are important cues for insect herbivores to assess host plant quality. It has previously been shown that female moths of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), avoid oviposition on damaged cotton Gossypium hirsutum, which may mediated by herbivore-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs). Among the HIPVs, some volatiles are released following any type of damage while others are synthesized de novo and released by the plants only in response to herbivore damage. In behavioural experiments we here show that oviposition by S. littoralis on undamaged cotton plants was reduced by adding volatiles collected from plants with ongoing herbivory. Gas chromatography-electroantennographic detection (GC-EAD) recordings revealed that antennae of mated S. littoralis females responded to 18 compounds from a collection of headspace volatiles of damaged cotton plants. Among these compounds, a blend of the seven de novo synthesized volatile compounds was found to reduce oviposition in S. littoralis on undamaged plants under both laboratory and ambient (field) conditions in Egypt. Volatile compounds that are not produced de novo by the plants did not affect oviposition. Our results show that ovipositing females respond specifically to the de novo synthesized volatiles released from plants under herbivore attack. We suggest that these volatiles provide reliable cues for ovipositing females to detect plants that could provide reduced quality food for their offspring and an increased risk of competition and predation.

  10. Understanding low reliability of memories for neutral information encoded under stress: alterations in memory-related activation in the hippocampus and midbrain.

    Qin, Shaozheng; Hermans, Erno J; van Marle, Hein J F; Fernández, Guillén


    Exposure to an acute stressor can lead to unreliable remembrance of intrinsically neutral information, as exemplified by low reliability of eyewitness memories, which stands in contrast with enhanced memory for the stressful incident itself. Stress-sensitive neuromodulators (e.g., catecholamines) are believed to cause this low reliability by altering neurocognitive processes underlying memory formation. Using event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated neural activity during memory formation in 44 young, healthy human participants while incidentally encoding emotionally neutral, complex scenes embedded in either a stressful or neutral context. We recorded event-related pupil dilation responses as an indirect index of phasic noradrenergic activity. Autonomic, endocrine, and psychological measures were acquired to validate stress manipulation. Acute stress during encoding led to a more liberal response bias (more hits and false alarms) when testing memory for the scenes 24 h later. The strength of this bias correlated negatively with pupil dilation responses and positively with stress-induced heart rate increases at encoding. Acute stress, moreover, reduced subsequent memory effects (SMEs; items later remembered vs forgotten) in hippocampus and midbrain, and in pupil dilation responses. The diminished SMEs indicate reduced selectivity and specificity in mnemonic processing during memory formation. This is in line with a model in which stress-induced catecholaminergic hyperactivation alters phasic neuromodulatory signaling in memory-related circuits, resulting in generalized (gist-based) processing at the cost of specificity. Thus, one may speculate that loss of specificity may yield less discrete memory representations at time of encoding, thereby causing a more liberal response bias when probing these memories.

  11. Prognostic factors in lupus nephritis

    Faurschou, Mikkel; Starklint, Henrik; Halberg, Poul


    To evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical and renal biopsy findings in an unselected cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and nephritis.......To evaluate the prognostic significance of clinical and renal biopsy findings in an unselected cohort of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and nephritis....

  12. Metrics for Offline Evaluation of Prognostic Performance

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostic performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years.*Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from...

  13. Requirements Specifications for Prognostics: An Overview

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — With recent advancements in prognostics methodologies there has been a significant interest in maturing Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) to increase its...

  14. Reliability and Its Quantitative Measures

    Alexandru ISAIC-MANIU


    Full Text Available In this article is made an opening for the software reliability issues, through wide-ranging statistical indicators, which are designed based on information collected from operating or testing (samples. It is developed the reliability issues also for the case of the main reliability laws (exponential, normal, Weibull, which validated for a particular system, allows the calculation of some reliability indicators with a higher degree of accuracy and trustworthiness

  15. Prognostics and Health Monitoring of High Power LED

    Chris Bailey


    Full Text Available Prognostics is seen as a key component of health usage monitoring systems, where prognostics algorithms can both detect anomalies in the behavior/performance of a micro-device/system, and predict its remaining useful life when subjected to monitored operational and environmental conditions. Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs are optoelectronic micro-devices that are now replacing traditional incandescent and fluorescent lighting, as they have many advantages including higher reliability, greater energy efficiency, long life time and faster switching speed. For some LED applications there is a requirement to monitor the health of LED lighting systems and predict when failure is likely to occur. This is very important in the case of safety critical and emergency applications. This paper provides both experimental and theoretical results that demonstrate the use of prognostics and health monitoring techniques for high power LEDs subjected to harsh operating conditions.




    Full Text Available The general path model (GPM is one approach for performing degradation-based, or Type III, prognostics. The GPM fits a parametric function to the collected observations of a prognostic parameter and extrapolates the fit to a failure threshold. This approach has been successfully applied to a variety of systems when a sufficient number of prognostic parameter observations are available. However, the parametric fit can suffer significantly when few data are available or the data are very noisy. In these instances, it is beneficial to include additional information to influence the fit to conform to a prior belief about the evolution of system degradation. Bayesian statistical approaches have been proposed to include prior information in the form of distributions of expected model parameters. This requires a number of run-to-failure cases with tracked prognostic parameters; these data may not be readily available for many systems. Reliability information and stressor-based (Type I and Type II, respectively prognostic estimates can provide the necessary prior belief for the GPM. This article presents the Bayesian updating framework to include prior information in the GPM and compares the efficacy of including different information sources on two data sets.

  17. Endodontic surgery prognostic factors.

    Azarpazhooh, Amir; Shah, Prakesh S


    Medline, (PubMed) and the Cochrane databases together with hand searching of the following journals: Journal of Endodontics, International Endodontic Journal, Oral Surgery Oral Medicine Oral Pathology (name changed to Oral Surgery Oral Medicine Oral Pathology Oral Radiology and Endodontics in 1995), Endodontics and Dental Traumatology (name changed to Dental Traumatology in 2001), Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, and International Journal of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery. Clinical studies evaluating apical surgery with placement of a root-end filling were included. Studies on apical surgery with orthograde root canal filling or about apicectomy alone without root-end filling were excluded, as were experimental and animal studies. Only studies with ≥ ten patients with a minimum six month follow-up period and clearly defined radiographic and clinical healing criteria, with healing reported for at least two categories of a specific prognostic factor were accepted. Studies reporting in English, German, French, Spanish, Italian, Portuguese and Scandinavian languages were included. All studies were assessed separately by two of the three authors, with disagreements resolved by discussion. Prognostic factors were divided into patient related, tooth-related or treatment-related factors. The reported percentages of healed teeth were pooled per category. The statistical method of Mantel-Haenszel was applied to estimate the odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals. Homogeneity was assessed using Woolf's test. With regard to tooth-related factors, the following were identified as predictors of healing: absence of preoperative pain or signs, good density of the root canal filling and a periapical lesion size of ≤ 5 mm. With regard to treatment-related factors, teeth treated with the use of an endoscope tended to have higher healed rates than teeth treated without the use of an endoscope. Although the clinician may be able to control treatment

  18. Tracking the Reliability of the U.S. Electric Power System: An Assessment of Publicly Available Information Reported to State Public Utility Commissions

    LaCommare, Kristina H.


    Large blackouts, such as the August 14-15, 2003 blackout in the northeastern United States and Canada, focus attention on the importance of reliable electric service. As public and private efforts are undertaken to improve reliability and prevent power interruptions, it is appropriate to assess their effectiveness. Measures of reliability, such as the frequency and duration of power interruptions, have been reported by electric utilities to state public utility commissions for many years. ...

  19. The prognostic relevance of estimates of proliferative activity in early breast cancer

    Offersen, B V; Sørensen, Flemming Brandt; Knoop, A;


    clinicopathological parameters at diagnosis in early breast cancer patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Tumour specimens from 365 consecutively treated breast cancer patients were immunostained for MIB-1 and evaluated under the microscope using systematic random sampling accomplished by the CAST-grid system. RESULTS...... and number of mitoses included in the analysis, MIB-1 estimates showed no independent prognostic impact. CONCLUSIONS: High MIB-1 estimates did not add independent prognostic information at diagnosis when evaluated together with classical prognostic markers of early breast cancer....




    Full Text Available Squamous cell carcinoma is one the most common oral mucosal malignant tumor, diagnosis of oral squamous cell carcinoma rarely presents difficulty, it is the cancer staging and histo pathological grading that are more important for prognosis, micronuclei are good prognostic indicator. Micronuclei screening can be done easily by exfoliative cytology, one of the most valuable diagnostic method other than routine histopathology (H and E-stained sections and immunohistochemistry. It has been used in the detection of oral squamous cell carcinoma and has been shown to have a sensitivity of 94%, specificity of 100%, and an accuracy of 95%. Micronuclei frequencies were also found to be raised with increasing histological grades of squamous cell carcinoma.

  1. Pediatric acute kidney injury: Appraisal of predictors and prognostic indicators

    Samuel Nkachukwu Uwaezuoke


    Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a major contributor to childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. In spite of the advances in renal replacement therapy, there has been a minimal reduction in AKI-related morbidity and mortality. Identifying the prognostic indicators and the risk factors that predict disease onset and progression, and instituting appropriate measures will lead to better survival outcomes. This narrative review seeks to appraise the predictors and prognostic indicators of pediatric AKI. Several biomarkers clearly stand out as predictors and prognostic indicators of the acute disease. Some of them are urine angiotensinogen, fibroblast growth factor-23, cystacin C, neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 7. Combining few of these biomarkers with clinical prediction models has improved their predictive and prognostic utility for AKI. Hemodynamic parameters such as indexed systemic oxygen delivery and mean arterial blood pressure have been proved to be reliable in predicting the occurrence and progression of the disease and its outcomes. Miscellaneous predictors and prognostic indicators like AKI definition criteria, presence of co-morbidities, and health-related quality of life assessment have also been documented from evidence-based studies. An understanding and application of these indices will obviously help to reduce AKI mortality in children.

  2. The reliability of sensitive information provided by injecting drug users in a clinical setting: clinician-administered versus audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI).

    Islam, M Mofizul; Topp, Libby; Conigrave, Katherine M; van Beek, Ingrid; Maher, Lisa; White, Ann; Rodgers, Craig; Day, Carolyn A


    Research with injecting drug users (IDUs) suggests greater willingness to report sensitive and stigmatised behaviour via audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) methods than during face-to-face interviews (FFIs); however, previous studies were limited in verifying this within the same individuals at the same time point. This study examines the relative willingness of IDUs to report sensitive information via ACASI and during a face-to-face clinical assessment administered in health services for IDUs. During recruitment for a randomised controlled trial undertaken at two IDU-targeted health services, assessments were undertaken as per clinical protocols, followed by referral of eligible clients to the trial, in which baseline self-report data were collected via ACASI. Five questions about sensitive injecting and sexual risk behaviours were administered to participants during both clinical interviews and baseline research data collection. "Percentage agreement" determined the magnitude of concordance/discordance in responses across interview methods, while tests appropriate to data format assessed the statistical significance of this variation. Results for all five variables suggest that, relative to ACASI, FFI elicited responses that may be perceived as more socially desirable. Discordance was statistically significant for four of the five variables examined. Participants who reported a history of sex work were more likely to provide discordant responses to at least one socially sensitive item. In health services for IDUs, information collection via ACASI may elicit more reliable and valid responses than FFI. Adoption of a universal precautionary approach to complement individually tailored assessment of and advice regarding health risk behaviours for IDUs may address this issue.

  3. Mathematical reliability an expository perspective

    Mazzuchi, Thomas; Singpurwalla, Nozer


    In this volume consideration was given to more advanced theoretical approaches and novel applications of reliability to ensure that topics having a futuristic impact were specifically included. Topics like finance, forensics, information, and orthopedics, as well as the more traditional reliability topics were purposefully undertaken to make this collection different from the existing books in reliability. The entries have been categorized into seven parts, each emphasizing a theme that seems poised for the future development of reliability as an academic discipline with relevance. The seven parts are networks and systems; recurrent events; information and design; failure rate function and burn-in; software reliability and random environments; reliability in composites and orthopedics, and reliability in finance and forensics. Embedded within the above are some of the other currently active topics such as causality, cascading, exchangeability, expert testimony, hierarchical modeling, optimization and survival...

  4. Use of Sequent Peak Algorithm Drought Severity Index and Hydroclimatic Reconstructions from Tree-Rings to Inform Water Supply Reliability Planning

    Bray, B. S.; Palhegyi, G.


    consistent with Meko et al. (2014) in their analysis of other watersheds in the region. These findings and other insights from the reconstructed runoff timeseries along with the SPADSI provide valuable information for water resource managers evaluating water supply reliability assumptions for future drought planning efforts.

  5. Microelectronics Reliability


    convey any rights or permission to manufacture, use, or sell any patented invention that may relate to them. This report was cleared for public release...testing for reliability prediction of devices exhibiting multiple failure mechanisms. Also presented was an integrated accelerating and measuring ...13  Table 2  T, V, F and matrix versus  measured  FIT

  6. Lifecycle Prognostics Architecture for Selected High-Cost Active Components

    N. Lybeck; B. Pham; M. Tawfik; J. B. Coble; R. M. Meyer; P. Ramuhalli; L. J. Bond


    There are an extensive body of knowledge and some commercial products available for calculating prognostics, remaining useful life, and damage index parameters. The application of these technologies within the nuclear power community is still in its infancy. Online monitoring and condition-based maintenance is seeing increasing acceptance and deployment, and these activities provide the technological bases for expanding to add predictive/prognostics capabilities. In looking to deploy prognostics there are three key aspects of systems that are presented and discussed: (1) component/system/structure selection, (2) prognostic algorithms, and (3) prognostics architectures. Criteria are presented for component selection: feasibility, failure probability, consequences of failure, and benefits of the prognostics and health management (PHM) system. The basis and methods commonly used for prognostics algorithms are reviewed and summarized. Criteria for evaluating PHM architectures are presented: open, modular architecture; platform independence; graphical user interface for system development and/or results viewing; web enabled tools; scalability; and standards compatibility. Thirteen software products were identified and discussed in the context of being potentially useful for deployment in a PHM program applied to systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP). These products were evaluated by using information available from company websites, product brochures, fact sheets, scholarly publications, and direct communication with vendors. The thirteen products were classified into four groups of software: (1) research tools, (2) PHM system development tools, (3) deployable architectures, and (4) peripheral tools. Eight software tools fell into the deployable architectures category. Of those eight, only two employ all six modules of a full PHM system. Five systems did not offer prognostic estimates, and one system employed the full health monitoring suite but lacked operations and

  7. Reliability of semiology description.

    Heo, Jae-Hyeok; Kim, Dong Wook; Lee, Seo-Young; Cho, Jinwhan; Lee, Sang-Kun; Nam, Hyunwoo


    Seizure semiology is important for classifying patients' epilepsy. Physicians usually get most of the seizure information from observers though there have been few reports on the reliability of the observers' description. This study aims at determining the reliability of observers' description of the semiology. We included 92 patients who had their habitual seizures recorded during video-EEG monitoring. We compared the semiology described by the observers with that recorded on the videotape, and reviewed which characteristics of the observers affected the reliability of their reported data. The classification of seizures and the individual components of the semiology based only on the observer-description was somewhat discordant compared with the findings from the videotape (correct classification, 85%). The descriptions of some ictal behaviors such as oroalimentary automatism, tonic/dystonic limb posturing, and head versions were relatively accurate, but those of motionless staring and hand automatism were less accurate. The specified directions by the observers were relatively correct. The accuracy of the description was related to the educational level of the observers. Much of the information described by well-educated observers is reliable. However, every physician should keep in mind the limitations of this information and use this information cautiously.

  8. Standardizing Research Methods for Prognostics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics and health management (PHM) is a maturing system engineering discipline. As with most maturing disciplines, PHM does not yet have a universally accepted...

  9. Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is...

  10. Being an Informed Consumer of Health Information and Assessment of Electronic Health Literacy in a National Sample of Internet Users: Validity and Reliability of the e-HLS Instrument.

    Seçkin, Gül; Yeatts, Dale; Hughes, Susan; Hudson, Cassie; Bell, Valarie


    The Internet, with its capacity to provide information that transcends time and space barriers, continues to transform how people find and apply information to their own lives. With the current explosion in electronic sources of health information, including thousands of websites and hundreds of mobile phone health apps, electronic health literacy is gaining an increasing prominence in health and medical research. An important dimension of electronic health literacy is the ability to appraise the quality of information that will facilitate everyday health care decisions. Health information seekers explore their care options by gathering information from health websites, blogs, Web-based forums, social networking websites, and advertisements, despite the fact that information quality on the Internet varies greatly. Nonetheless, research has lagged behind in establishing multidimensional instruments, in part due to the evolving construct of health literacy itself. The purpose of this study was to examine psychometric properties of a new electronic health literacy (ehealth literacy) measure in a national sample of Internet users with specific attention to older users. Our paper is motivated by the fact that ehealth literacy is an underinvestigated area of inquiry. Our sample was drawn from a panel of more than 55,000 participants maintained by Knowledge Networks, the largest national probability-based research panel for Web-based surveys. We examined the factor structure of a 19-item electronic Health Literacy Scale (e-HLS) through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factor analysis, internal consistency reliability, and construct validity on sample of adults (n=710) and a subsample of older adults (n=194). The AMOS graphics program 21.0 was used to construct a measurement model, linking latent factors obtained from EFA with 19 indicators to determine whether this factor structure achieved a good fit with our entire sample and the subsample (age ≥ 60

  11. A Family of Reliable H∞ State-Feedback Controllers for Nonlinear Systems with Strictly Redundant Actuators:the Full Information Case

    FU Yu-sun; TIAN Zuo-hua; SHI Song-jiao


    The paper is concerned with the reliable H∞ state feedback control and controller parameterization problem for nonlinear systems with strictly redundant actuators. Based on Hamilton-Jacobi inequality,the sufficient condition is presented such that the reliable control problem is resolved, and a family of controllers is given such that the resulting closed-loop systems are asymptotically stable and their L2-gain is limitable not only when all actuators are operational but also when any one, but only one of actuators experiences an outage. The results of this paper provide a deep insight into the synthesis of the reliable nonlinear H∞ state-feedback.

  12. Prognostics Applied to Electric Propulsion UAV

    Goebel, Kai; Saha, Bhaskar


    Health management plays an important role in operations of UAV. If there is equipment malfunction on critical components, safe operation of the UAV might possibly be compromised. A technology with particular promise in this arena is equipment prognostics. This technology provides a state assessment of the health of components of interest and, if a degraded state has been found, it estimates how long it will take before the equipment will reach a failure threshold, conditional on assumptions about future operating conditions and future environmental conditions. This chapter explores the technical underpinnings of how to perform prognostics and shows an implementation on the propulsion of an electric UAV. A particle filter is shown as the method of choice in performing state assessment and predicting future degradation. The method is then applied to the batteries that provide power to the propeller motors. An accurate run-time battery life prediction algorithm is of critical importance to ensure the safe operation of the vehicle if one wants to maximize in-air time. Current reliability based techniques turn out to be insufficient to manage the use of such batteries where loads vary frequently in uncertain environments.

  13. Methodological aspects of the operational reliability of the equipment of oil production. Information component of the methodology and formulation of the problem by the construction of an information system

    Dmitrii Antoniadi


    Full Text Available The article deals with methods for determining the reliability of the factors of oil production equipment, a study of reliability characteristics of the system "well - setting electric centrifugal pumps", shows the factors of reliability in terms of production complications. The preliminary generalizations on the classification of oil drilling equipment reliability factors leading to such practically relevant provisions of durability, forecasting and optimization of accident repairs. The principles of classification of the factors of reliability of equipment in the aspect of the efficiency of oil production

  14. Prognostic usefulness of repeated echocardiographic evaluation after acute myocardial infarction. TRACE Study Group. TRAndolapril Cardiac Evaluation

    Korup, E; Køber, L; Torp-Pedersen, C;


    The prognostic value of repeated echocardiographic measurement of left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction was evaluated. We found that repeated measurements of wall motion index in survivors of acute myocardial infarction, with no reinfarction, provide important prognostic inf...... information about death and worsening of heart failure....

  15. Prognostic factors of fulminant hepatitis in pregnancy

    LI Xiao-mao; MA Lin; YANG Yue-bo; SHI Zhong-jie; ZHOU Shui-sheng


    @@ Fulminant hepatitis (FH) refers to liver diseases that have severe state and complicated manifestations. It will endanger patients'lives and health largely. The incidence of fulminant hepatitis in pregnancy (FHP) is 66 times of patients not in pregnancy,1 which is more dangerous and is one of the major causes of maternal and perinatal death in China. In order to predict the prognoses of FHP and decrease maternal and perinatal death rate, we summarized clinical information of 25 cases of FHP admitted to our hospital and investigated into prognostic factors that influenced FHP.

  16. Photovoltaic module reliability workshop

    Mrig, L. (ed.)


    The paper and presentations compiled in this volume form the Proceedings of the fourth in a series of Workshops sponsored by Solar Energy Research Institute (SERI/DOE) under the general theme of photovoltaic module reliability during the period 1986--1990. The reliability Photo Voltaic (PV) modules/systems is exceedingly important along with the initial cost and efficiency of modules if the PV technology has to make a major impact in the power generation market, and for it to compete with the conventional electricity producing technologies. The reliability of photovoltaic modules has progressed significantly in the last few years as evidenced by warranties available on commercial modules of as long as 12 years. However, there is still need for substantial research and testing required to improve module field reliability to levels of 30 years or more. Several small groups of researchers are involved in this research, development, and monitoring activity around the world. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in this field were brought together under SERI/DOE sponsorship to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this important field. The papers presented here reflect this effort.

  17. Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

    Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Li, Zhi-Ming


    Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL.

  18. Development and reliability of a scale of physical-activity related informal social control for parents of Chinese pre-schoolers

    Suen, Yi-Nam; Cerin, Ester; Mellecker, Robin R


    Parents' perceived informal social control, defined as the informal ways residents intervene to create a safe and orderly neighbourhood environment, may influence young children's physical activity (PA...

  19. Prognostic factors in the development of opioid addiction

    Vasila Talimbekova


    Full Text Available In 145 patients with opioid addiction were studied prognostic factors of the formation of the disease and their medical and social consequences. In the examined patients duration of the narcotization was from 1 year to 15 years. Analysis of studies showed that the most significant adverse prognostic factors, determining formation rate of medical and social consequences in opioid addiction, may include: perinatal pathology, personality deviation in the premorbid; early age of onset of drug use; hereditary load addictive and mental illness; condition of upbringing; alcohol abuse prior to narcotization; prescription of narcotization. These constitutionally-biological factors are informative indicators in the predicting the formation of opioid dependence.

  20. Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS): Life Cycle Cost Impact Modeling System Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM)--Description. Users Guide. Final Report.

    Goclowski, John C.; And Others

    The Reliability, Maintainability, and Cost Model (RMCM) described in this report is an interactive mathematical model with a built-in sensitivity analysis capability. It is a major component of the Life Cycle Cost Impact Model (LCCIM), which was developed as part of the DAIS advanced development program to be used to assess the potential impacts…

  1. Tumor necrosis adds prognostically significant information to grade in clear cell renal cell carcinoma: A study of 842 consecutive cases from a single institution. Khor LY, Dhakal HP, Jia X, Reynolds JP, McKenney JK, Rini BI, Magi-Galluzzi C, Przybycin CG.Am J Surg Pathol. September 2016;40(9):1224-1231.

    Kryvenko, Oleksandr N


    Tumor necrosis has been shown to be an independent predictor of adverse outcome in renal cell carcinoma. A modification of the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grading system for renal cell carcinomas has recently been proposed, which incorporates the presence of tumor necrosis into grade. The investigators proposing this system found that necrosis added significant prognostic information to ISUP grade. We attempted to describe our experience with the effect of tumor necrosis in relationship to nuclear grade by reviewing the slides from a large consecutive series of localized clear cell renal cell carcinomas from our institution and obtaining long-term clinical follow-up information (overall survival). Of the 842 clear cell renal cell carcinomas reviewed, 265 (31.5%) were ISUP grade 1 or 2, 437 (51.9%) were ISUP grade 3, and 140 (16.6%) were ISUP grade 4. Tumor necrosis was present in 177 (21%) cases. A total of 547 (64.9%) cases were stage pT1, 83 (9.9%) were stage pT2, 193 (22.9%) were stage pT3a, and 19 (2.3%) were pT3b or higher. Median follow-up was 73.2 months (range: 0.12-273.6), and 310 (36.8%) patients died. On univariable analysis, there was no significant difference in outcome for tumors of ISUP grades 1 to 3. After adjustment for age, tumor stage, and tumor size, ISUP grade 4 and necrosis were significant predictors of overall survival on multivariable analysis. When the recently proposed modified grading system incorporating tumor necrosis was applied to our data, there was no significant difference in overall survival between patients with modified grade 1 tumors and those with modified grade 2 tumors (P = 0.31); however, there was a statistically significant difference between patients with modified grade 1 or 2 tumors and those with modified grade 3 tumors (P = 0.04), and a substantial difference in outcome between those with modified grade 3 and modified grade 4 tumors (PISUP grade could be further prognostically separated

  2. [Reliability of cancer as the underlying cause of death according to the Mortality Information System and Population-Based Cancer Registry in Goiânia, Goiás State, Brazil].

    Oliveira, Patricia Pereira Vasconcelos de; Silva, Gulnar Azevedo e; Curado, Maria Paula; Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Moura, Lenildo de


    This study assessed the reliability of cancer as the underlying cause of death using probabilistic linkage between the Mortality Information System and Population-Based Cancer Registry (PBCR) in Goiânia, Goiás State, Brazil, from 2000 to 2005. RecLink III was used for probabilistic linkage, and reliability was assessed by Cohen's kappa and prevalence-adjusted and bias-adjusted kappa (PABAK). In the probabilistic linkage, 2,874 individuals were identified for the reliability analysis. Cohen's kappa ranged from 0.336 to 0.846 and PABAK from 0.810 to 0.990 for 14 neoplasm groups defined in the study. For reliability of the 35 leading cancers, 12(34.3%) presented kappa values under 0.600 and PABAK over 0.981. Among the neoplasms common to both sexes, crude agreement ranged from 0.672 to 0.790 and adjusted agreement from 0.894 to 0.961. Sixty-seven percent of cases classified by the Mortality Information System as "cancer of ill-defined sites" were reclassified according to the PBCR. This study was useful for the classification of cancer mortality estimates in areas covered by the PBCR.

  3. Distributed Prognostics Based on Structural Model Decomposition

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based...

  4. A Modeling Framework for Prognostic Decision Making and its Application to UAV Mission Planning

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of prognostic decision making (PDM) is to utilize information on anticipated system health changes in selecting future actions. One of the key challenges in...

  5. A Testbed for Implementing Prognostic Methodologies on Cryogenic Propellant Loading Systems

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics technologies determine the health state of a system and predict its remaining useful life. With this information, operators are able to make...

  6. Implementation of Prognostic Methodologies to Cryogenic Propellant Loading Test-bed

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics methodologies determine the health state of a system and predict the end of life and remaining useful life. This information enables operators to take...

  7. Prognostic significance of the S-phase fraction of light-chain-restricted cytoplasmic immunoglobulin (cIg) positive plasma cells in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma enrolled on Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group treatment trial E9486.

    Trendle, M C; Leong, T; Kyle, R A; Katzmann, J A; Oken, M M; Kay, N E; Van Ness, B G; Greipp, P R


    The bone marrow plasma cell labeling index (PCLI) as measured by bromodeoxyuridine uptake is a well-established independent prognostic factor for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma, but the test is not easily done in most laboratories. The purpose of this study was to determine if the proliferative activity (% S-phase) as determined by two-color flow cytometry for cytoplasmic immunoglobulin (cIg) light chain and DNA content also had prognostic significance. As part of Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group clinical trial E9486, 500 patients had successful performance of the bone marrow PCLI. Of 349 patients who had flow cIg and DNA content cytometry, 210 had adequate data to reliably calculate S-phase %. Patients with low % S-phase fraction (/=2%), median survivals 4.1 vs. 2.9 years (P = 0.032). Measurement of the S-phase % by flow cytometry gives significant prognostic information in patients with newly diagnosed myeloma. However, in multivariate analysis, S-phase % did not add prognostic information when PCLI was in the model. S-phase % added prognostic information only when all cases with flow measurement of S-phase % were included, and when PCLI was excluded from the model. Discriminating a population of only cIg positive cells proved difficult in patients with a low percentage of bone marrow plasma cells. Methodology to measure S-phase % in patients with a low percent plasma cells is needed before this technique can be used for diagnosis and prognosis in myeloma. Copyright 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.


    N. A. Gorban


    Full Text Available Prostate cancer is most common and its heterogenicity is presently apparent. There is a continuous search for the factors allowing the prediction of the poor course and biological difference of tumors. The College of American Pathologists classifies the currently known prognostic factors into 3 categories: 1 the factors whose prognostic importance and successful use have been proven in practice; 2 those that have been widely studied biologically and clinically, but the significance of which needs to be proven in extensive statistical studies; 3 all other factors that have been inadequately studied to demonstrate their prognostic value. Category 1 prognostic factors, such as prostate-specific antigen levels, TNM stage, Gleason grading, and the status of surgical margins, enjoy wide application. Category 2 factors are not used IN clinical practice so extensively. The value of some Category 3 factors (the biomarkers p53, Ki-67, Bcl-2, receptors of androgens is indubitably and they claim to be widely applied in clinical practice with time. The clinical significance of molecular biological markers calls for further investigation.


    N. A. Gorban


    Full Text Available Prostate cancer is most common and its heterogenicity is presently apparent. There is a continuous search for the factors allowing the prediction of the poor course and biological difference of tumors. The College of American Pathologists classifies the currently known prognostic factors into 3 categories: 1 the factors whose prognostic importance and successful use have been proven in practice; 2 those that have been widely studied biologically and clinically, but the significance of which needs to be proven in extensive statistical studies; 3 all other factors that have been inadequately studied to demonstrate their prognostic value. Category 1 prognostic factors, such as prostate-specific antigen levels, TNM stage, Gleason grading, and the status of surgical margins, enjoy wide application. Category 2 factors are not used IN clinical practice so extensively. The value of some Category 3 factors (the biomarkers p53, Ki-67, Bcl-2, receptors of androgens is indubitably and they claim to be widely applied in clinical practice with time. The clinical significance of molecular biological markers calls for further investigation.

  10. Expert system aids reliability

    Johnson, A.T. [Tennessee Gas Pipeline, Houston, TX (United States)


    Quality and Reliability are key requirements in the energy transmission industry. Tennessee Gas Co. a division of El Paso Energy, has applied Gensym`s G2, object-oriented Expert System programming language as a standard tool for maintaining and improving quality and reliability in pipeline operation. Tennessee created a small team of gas controllers and engineers to develop a Proactive Controller`s Assistant (ProCA) that provides recommendations for operating the pipeline more efficiently, reliably and safely. The controller`s pipeline operating knowledge is recreated in G2 in the form of Rules and Procedures in ProCA. Two G2 programmers supporting the Gas Control Room add information to the ProCA knowledge base daily. The result is a dynamic, constantly improving system that not only supports the pipeline controllers in their operations, but also the measurement and communications departments` requests for special studies. The Proactive Controller`s Assistant development focus is in the following areas: Alarm Management; Pipeline Efficiency; Reliability; Fuel Efficiency; and Controller Development.

  11. Tim-3 as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker of osteosarcoma.

    Ge, Wenhui; Li, Jing; Fan, Wenhao; Xu, Delong; Sun, Shangfei


    Osteosarcoma is the most frequent primary bone tumor that affects adolescents and children. However, diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for osteosarcoma remain lacking. (Tim-3) T-cell immunoglobulin domain and mucin domain-3, which negatively regulates T cell helper (Th1) cells and affects cytokine expression, has attracted increasing attention due to its critical role in regulating both adaptive and innate immune cells. In this study, we evaluated serum soluble Tim-3 level in osteosarcoma patients to explore its diagnostic and prognostic value for this particular malignancy. Serum soluble Tim-3 level was measured with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay in 120 osteosarcoma patients, 120 benign bone tumors patients and 120 healthy controls, followed by analysis of the correlation with clinic pathological characteristics. Receiver operating curves, Kaplan-Meier curves, and log-rank analyses as well as Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the diagnostic and prognostic significance. Serum solubleTim-3 level was remarkably elevated in osteosarcoma patients. Osteosarcoma patients with larger tumor size, late stages and distant metastases were accompanied with higher levels of Tim-3. ROC/AUC analysis indicated thatTim-3 served as a reliable marker to distinguish healthy participants from Tim-3 patients. Osteosarcoma patients with higher Tim-3 had relatively lower survival. Multivariate analyses for overall survival revealed that high serum soluble Tim-3 level was an independent prognostic factor for osteosarcoma. Furthermore, Tim-3 levels of CD8+ and CD4+ T cells were elevated in peripheral circulation of osteosarcoma patients. Therefore, It was indicated in our research that elevated serum soluble Tim-3 level might be a novel potential diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for osteosarcoma patients.

  12. Reliability of the information about the history of diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. Differences in regard to sex, age, and educational level. The pró-saúde study

    Faerstein Eduardo


    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the intraobserver reliability of the information about the history of diagnosis and treatment of hypertension. METHODS: A multidimensional health questionnaire, which was filled out by the interviewees, was applied twice with an interval of 2 weeks, in July '99, to 192 employees of the University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ, stratified by sex, age, and educational level. The intraobserver reliability of the answers provided was estimated by the kappa statistic and by the coefficient of intraclass correlation (CICC. RESULTS: The general kappa (k statistic was 0.75 (95% CI=0.73-0.77. Reliability was higher among females (k=0.88, 95% CI=0.85-0.91 than among males (k=0.62, 95% CI=0.59-0.65.The reliability was higher among individuals 40 years of age or older (k=0.79; 95% CI=0.73-0.84 than those from 18 to 39 years (k=0.52; 95% CI=0.45-0.57. Finally, the kappa statistic was higher among individuals with a university educational level (k=0.86; 95% CI=0.81-0.91 than among those with high school educational level (k=0.61; 95% CI=0.53-0.70 or those with middle school educational level (k=0.68; 95% CI=0.64-0.72. The coefficient of intraclass correlation estimated by the intraobserver agreement in regard to age at the time of the diagnosis of hypertension was 0.74. A perfect agreement between the 2 answers (k=1.00 was observed for 22 interviewees who reported prior prescription of antihypertensive medication. CONCLUSION: In the population studied, estimates of the reliability of the history of medical diagnosis of hypertension and its treatment ranged from substantial to almost perfect reliability.

  13. The importance of accounting for the uncertainty of published prognostic model estimates.

    Young, Tracey A; Thompson, Simon


    Reported is the importance of properly reflecting uncertainty associated with prognostic model estimates when calculating the survival benefit of a treatment or technology, using liver transplantation as an example. Monte Carlo simulation techniques were used to account for the uncertainty of prognostic model estimates using the standard errors of the regression coefficients and their correlations. These methods were applied to patients with primary biliary cirrhosis undergoing liver transplantation using a prognostic model from a historic cohort who did not undergo transplantation. The survival gain over 4 years from transplantation was estimated. Ignoring the uncertainty in the prognostic model, the estimated survival benefit of liver transplantation was 16.7 months (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 13.5 to 20.1), and was statistically significant (p important that the precision of regression coefficients is available for users of published prognostic models. Ignoring this additional information substantially underestimates uncertainty, which can then impact misleadingly on policy decisions.

  14. A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

    Kulkarni, Chetan S.


    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable

  15. Statistical tools for prognostics and health management of complex systems

    Collins, David H [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Huzurbazar, Aparna V [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson - Cook, Christine M [Los Alamos National Laboratory


    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is increasingly important for understanding and managing today's complex systems. These systems are typically mission- or safety-critical, expensive to replace, and operate in environments where reliability and cost-effectiveness are a priority. We present background on PHM and a suite of applicable statistical tools and methods. Our primary focus is on predicting future states of the system (e.g., the probability of being operational at a future time, or the expected remaining system life) using heterogeneous data from a variety of sources. We discuss component reliability models incorporating physical understanding, condition measurements from sensors, and environmental covariates; system reliability models that allow prediction of system failure time distributions from component failure models; and the use of Bayesian techniques to incorporate expert judgments into component and system models.

  16. Prognostic markers for idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension

    Guo Xiaomin; Jin Hongfang; Du Junbao


    Objective The objective of this study is to review the research on the prognostic markers of idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH).Date sources We searched literature from PubMed and CNKI databases both in English and Chinese up to 2013.Study selection Data about mortality and cut-off value are from clinical trials and identified by analysis.Results IPAH is an unexplained,progressive,and rare disease characterized by increased pulmonary artery pressure and pulmonary vascular resistance.The diagnosis is difficult,mortality of IPAH is high,and the survival periods are only 2-3 years after diagnosis.Investigations in recent years have identified a range of prognostic markers for IPAH,including the 6-minute walking test,red blood cell distribution width,and platelet levels,as well as imaging findings.Changes in these markers are important sources of information to predict the prognosis of patients with IPAH,which carries significant benefits for treatment planning.Conclusion Even though the prognosis of IPAH has been investigated,the mortality is also high.More accurate and meaningful assessment for the prognosis of IPAH is required.

  17. Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

    Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring; Bruce P. Hallbert


    The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on human performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.

  18. The prognostic value of FET PET at radiotherapy planning in newly diagnosed glioblastoma

    Hoejklint Poulsen, Sidsel [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiation Biology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Clinical Physiology, Nuclear Medicine and PET, Copenhagen (Denmark); Urup, Thomas; Grunnet, Kirsten; Skovgaard Poulsen, Hans [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiation Biology, Copenhagen (Denmark); The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Oncology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Jarle Christensen, Ib [University of Copenhagen, Hvidovre Hospital, Laboratory of Gastroenterology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Larsen, Vibeke Andree [Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Radiology, Copenhagen (Denmark); Lundemann Jensen, Michael; Munck af Rosenschoeld, Per [The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Department of Oncology, Copenhagen (Denmark); The Finsen Center, Rigshospitalet, Section of Radiotherapy, Copenhagen (Denmark); Law, Ian [Center of Diagnostic Investigation, Rigshospitalet, Department of Clinical Physiology, Nuclear Medicine and PET, Copenhagen (Denmark)


    Glioblastoma patients show a great variability in progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). To gain additional pretherapeutic information, we explored the potential of O-(2-{sup 18}F-fluoroethyl)-L-tyrosine (FET) PET as an independent prognostic biomarker. We retrospectively analyzed 146 consecutively treated, newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients. All patients were treated with temozolomide and radiation therapy (RT). CT/MR and FET PET scans were obtained postoperatively for RT planning. We used Cox proportional hazards models with OS and PFS as endpoints, to test the prognostic value of FET PET biological tumor volume (BTV). Median follow-up time was 14 months, and median OS and PFS were 16.5 and 6.5 months, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, increasing BTV (HR = 1.17, P < 0.001), poor performance status (HR = 2.35, P < 0.001), O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase protein status (HR = 1.61, P = 0.024) and higher age (HR = 1.32, P = 0.013) were independent prognostic factors of poor OS. For poor PFS, only increasing BTV (HR = 1.18; P = 0.002) was prognostic. A prognostic index for OS was created based on the identified prognostic factors. Large BTV on FET PET is an independent prognostic factor of poor OS and PFS in glioblastoma patients. With the introduction of FET PET, we obtain a prognostic index that can help in glioblastoma treatment planning. (orig.)

  19. Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

    Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai


    Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub-system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such information enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the flow of propellant, so failures may have a significant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle filtering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

  20. Prognostics for Steam Generator Tube Rupture using Markov Chain model

    Kim, Gibeom; Heo, Gyunyoung [Kyung Hee University, Yongin (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hyeonmin [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)


    This paper will describe the prognostics method for evaluating and forecasting the ageing effect and demonstrate the procedure of prognostics for the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) accident. Authors will propose the data-driven method so called MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) which is preferred to the physical-model method in terms of flexibility and availability. Degradation data is represented as growth of burst probability over time. Markov chain model is performed based on transition probability of state. And the state must be discrete variable. Therefore, burst probability that is continuous variable have to be changed into discrete variable to apply Markov chain model to the degradation data. The Markov chain model which is one of prognostics methods was described and the pilot demonstration for a SGTR accident was performed as a case study. The Markov chain model is strong since it is possible to be performed without physical models as long as enough data are available. However, in the case of the discrete Markov chain used in this study, there must be loss of information while the given data is discretized and assigned to the finite number of states. In this process, original information might not be reflected on prediction sufficiently. This should be noted as the limitation of discrete models. Now we will be studying on other prognostics methods such as GPM (General Path Model) which is also data-driven method as well as the particle filer which belongs to physical-model method and conducting comparison analysis.

  1. Integration of Human Reliability Analysis Models into the Simulation-Based Framework for the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization Toolkit

    Boring, Ronald [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Rasmussen, Martin [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Social Research; Herberger, Sarah [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ulrich, Thomas [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Groth, Katrina [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)


    This report presents an application of a computation-based human reliability analysis (HRA) framework called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER). HUNTER has been developed not as a standalone HRA method but rather as framework that ties together different HRA methods to model dynamic risk of human activities as part of an overall probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). While we have adopted particular methods to build an initial model, the HUNTER framework is meant to be intrinsically flexible to new pieces that achieve particular modeling goals. In the present report, the HUNTER implementation has the following goals: • Integration with a high fidelity thermal-hydraulic model capable of modeling nuclear power plant behaviors and transients • Consideration of a PRA context • Incorporation of a solid psychological basis for operator performance • Demonstration of a functional dynamic model of a plant upset condition and appropriate operator response This report outlines these efforts and presents the case study of a station blackout scenario to demonstrate the various modules developed to date under the HUNTER research umbrella.

  2. A Study of Secondary Students' Decision-Making Processes with Respect to Information Use, Particularly Students' Judgements of Relevance and Reliability

    Watson, Curtis L.


    This report details an ongoing investigation of the decision-making processes of a group of secondary school students in south-eastern Australia undertaking information search tasks. The study is situated in the field of information seeking and use, and, more broadly, in decision making. Research questions focus on students' decisions about the…

  3. The ErbB signalling pathway : protein expression and prognostic value in epithelial ovarian cancer

    de Graeff, P.; Crijns, A.P.; ten Hoor, K.A.; Klip, H.G.; Hollema, H.; Oien, K.; Bartlett, J.M.; Wisman, G.B.; de Bock, G.H.; de Vries, E.G.; de Jong, S.; van der Zee, A.G.


    Ovarian cancer is the most frequent cause of death from gynaecological cancer in the Western world. Current prognostic factors do not allow reliable prediction of response to chemotherapy and survival for individual ovarian cancer patients. Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and HER-2/neu are f

  4. On the injuries of the vertebrae and spinal marrow: prognostic factors & classifications.

    Middendorp, J.J. van


    The general aim of this thesis was to critically appraise current concepts of prognostication and classification of spinal column and spinal cord injuries. To date, only a few reliable, validated spinal column injury classifications exist. Moreover, the scientific validity of currently known progno

  5. The Validity of the Rorschach Prognostic Rating Scale with Incarcerated Offenders

    Edinger, Jack D.; Bogan, Joseph B.


    Previous research has shown that the Rorschach Prognostic Rating Scale reliably predicts the adjustment capacity of various S types to a variety of situations. The present study investigated the efficacy of the RPRS to suggest the adjustment capacity of prisoners to various aspects of their institutional environment. (Editor)

  6. Web measurement - a tool to achieve reliable information on custody transfer measurement systems in pipeline operations; Web medicao - uma ferramenta de consolidacao de informacoes sobre sistemas de medicao para transferencia de custodia

    Cid, Eliane Areas; Freitas, Surama de Oliveitra [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisas; Ferreira, Ana Luisa Auler da Silva; Dias, Gerson Vieira [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)


    The prompt and organized information about measurement systems is essential for custody transfer in the pipeline transportation business. This organized information can serve as a basis for operational, maintenance and commercial groups in pipeline transportation companies. This information can also help management in planning future improvements in hardware for custody transfer measurements. In nation-wide companies, like TRANSPETRO, information about custody transfer measurement systems, if not organized, will be scattered geographically and organizationally. In organizing this kind of information, distributed systems have a big advantage, with information maintained by operational groups and centralized in the headquarters of the company. This paper describes the implementation of a system for consolidating and updating company information about custody transfer measurement systems for liquid and gas. The system has been implemented on the Intranet, allowing initial data entry in a distributed way, and a centralized validation by the headquarters engineering group. The new methodology has sharply increased the reliability in the information of custody transfer measurement systems in the company. (author)

  7. Photovoltaic performance and reliability workshop

    Mrig, L. [ed.


    This workshop was the sixth in a series of workshops sponsored by NREL/DOE under the general subject of photovoltaic testing and reliability during the period 1986--1993. PV performance and PV reliability are at least as important as PV cost, if not more. In the US, PV manufacturers, DOE laboratories, electric utilities, and others are engaged in the photovoltaic reliability research and testing. This group of researchers and others interested in the field were brought together to exchange the technical knowledge and field experience as related to current information in this evolving field of PV reliability. The papers presented here reflect this effort since the last workshop held in September, 1992. The topics covered include: cell and module characterization, module and system testing, durability and reliability, system field experience, and standards and codes.

  8. Delta-Reliability

    Eugster, P.; Guerraoui, R.; Kouznetsov, P.


    This paper presents a new, non-binary measure of the reliability of broadcast algorithms, called Delta-Reliability. This measure quantifies the reliability of practical broadcast algorithms that, on the one hand, were devised with some form of reliability in mind, but, on the other hand, are not considered reliable according to the ``traditional'' notion of broadcast reliability [HT94]. Our specification of Delta-Reliability suggests a further step towards bridging the gap between theory and...

  9. Reliability computation from reliability block diagrams

    Chelson, P. O.; Eckstein, E. Y.


    Computer program computes system reliability for very general class of reliability block diagrams. Four factors are considered in calculating probability of system success: active block redundancy, standby block redundancy, partial redundancy, and presence of equivalent blocks in the diagram.

  10. Prognostic stratification of ulcerated melanoma

    Bønnelykke-Behrndtz, Marie L; Schmidt, Henrik; Christensen, Ib J


    OBJECTIVES: For patients with melanoma, ulceration is an important prognostic marker and interestingly also a predictive marker for the response of adjuvant interferon. A consensual definition and accurate assessment of ulceration are therefore crucial for proper staging and clinical management. We...... stratification of ulcerated lesions. METHODS: From H&E-stained sections, the status (presence vs absence), extent (percentage of the total tumor length), and type (infiltrative vs attenuative) of ulceration and epidermal involvement were evaluated from 385 patients with cutaneous melanoma. RESULTS: The presence...... of ulceration (hazard ratio [HR], 1.83), an attenuative type of ulceration (HR, 3.02), and excessive ulceration (HR, 3.57) were independent predictors of poor melanoma-specific survival. Further subdivision of minimal/moderate ulceration showed independent prognostic value only for lesions with epidermal...

  11. Analytic prognostic for petrochemical pipelines

    Jaoude, Abdo Abou; El-Tawil, Khaled; Noura, Hassan; Ouladsine, Mustapha


    Pipelines tubes are part of vital mechanical systems largely used in petrochemical industries. They serve to transport natural gases or liquids. They are cylindrical tubes and are submitted to the risks of corrosion due to high PH concentrations of the transported liquids in addition to fatigue cracks due to the alternation of pressure-depression of gas along the time, initiating therefore in the tubes body micro-cracks that can propagate abruptly to lead to failure. The development of the prognostic process for such systems increases largely their performance and their availability, as well decreases the global cost of their missions. Therefore, this paper deals with a new prognostic approach to improve the performance of these pipelines. Only the first mode of crack, that is, the opening mode, is considered.

  12. Gas turbine engine prognostics using Bayesian hierarchical models: A variational approach

    Zaidan, Martha A.; Mills, Andrew R.; Harrison, Robert F.; Fleming, Peter J.


    Prognostics is an emerging requirement of modern health monitoring that aims to increase the fidelity of failure-time predictions by the appropriate use of sensory and reliability information. In the aerospace industry it is a key technology to reduce life-cycle costs, improve reliability and asset availability for a diverse fleet of gas turbine engines. In this work, a Bayesian hierarchical model is selected to utilise fleet data from multiple assets to perform probabilistic estimation of remaining useful life (RUL) for civil aerospace gas turbine engines. The hierarchical formulation allows Bayesian updates of an individual predictive model to be made, based upon data received asynchronously from a fleet of assets with different in-service lives and for the entry of new assets into the fleet. In this paper, variational inference is applied to the hierarchical formulation to overcome the computational and convergence concerns that are raised by the numerical sampling techniques needed for inference in the original formulation. The algorithm is tested on synthetic data, where the quality of approximation is shown to be satisfactory with respect to prediction performance, computational speed, and ease of use. A case study of in-service gas turbine engine data demonstrates the value of integrating fleet data for accurately predicting degradation trajectories of assets.

  13. On Bayesian System Reliability Analysis

    Soerensen Ringi, M.


    The view taken in this thesis is that reliability, the probability that a system will perform a required function for a stated period of time, depends on a person`s state of knowledge. Reliability changes as this state of knowledge changes, i.e. when new relevant information becomes available. Most existing models for system reliability prediction are developed in a classical framework of probability theory and they overlook some information that is always present. Probability is just an analytical tool to handle uncertainty, based on judgement and subjective opinions. It is argued that the Bayesian approach gives a much more comprehensive understanding of the foundations of probability than the so called frequentistic school. A new model for system reliability prediction is given in two papers. The model encloses the fact that component failures are dependent because of a shared operational environment. The suggested model also naturally permits learning from failure data of similar components in non identical environments. 85 refs.

  14. Gear Fatigue Diagnostics and Prognostics


    The first objective was to collect meaningful gear fault progression data starting from healthy NASA-designed spur test gears and ending with failed...and D. P. Townsend, "Analysis of the effects of surface pitting and wear on the vibration of a gear transmission system," Tribology International...Reporting Period: April 15, 2012 to September 27, 2012 Attached is the Gear Fatigue Diagnostics and Prognostics project progress report for the

  15. 2016 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)


    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology - both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  16. 2015 NREL Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshops

    Kurtz, Sarah [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)


    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  17. Prognostic factors affecting postoperative survival ofpatients withsolitary small hepatocellular carcinoma

    MuYanCai; FengWeiWang; ChangPengLi; LiXuYan; JieWeiChen; RongZhenLuo; JingPingYun; YiXinZeng; DanXie


    Background:Small hepatocellular carcinoma (sHCC) is a unique variant of HCC that is characterized by small tumor size (maximum tumor diameter≤3cm) and favorable long‑term outcomes. The present study aimed to deifne clin‑icopathologic factors that predict survival in patients with sHCC. Methods:The study population consisted of 335 patients who underwent hepatectomy for solitary sHCC between December 1998 and 2010. Prognostic factors were evaluated using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models. Results:The 5‑year overall survival (OS) and recurrence‑free survival (RFS) rates were 77.7% and 59.9%, respectively. Kaplan–Meier curves showed that tumor size and vascular invasion had prognostic signiifcance within this relatively selected cohort (P Conclusions:Tumor size and vascular invasion are feasible and useful prognostic factors for sHCC. The proposed prognostic model, based on tumor size and vascular invasion, is informative in predicting survival in sHCC patients undergoing hepatectomy.

  18. [Reliable health information for patients with rare diseases : Quality demands defined by the National Action Plan and how they are put into practice].

    Schaefer, Corinna; Brunsmann, Frank; Siegert, Svenja


    Information for patients with rare diseases has to adhere to strict quality criteria in order to support individual treatment decisions or coping strategies. However, developers are facing specific challenges: For example, the evidence is often insufficient or of very low quality. In the context of the National Action League for People with Rare Diseases (NAMSE), criteria have been developed that assure high-quality information on rare diseases. Core criteria comprise the involvement of patients or their advocates in all stages of the development process, the systematic search and assessment of the evidence, systematic collection of patient experience, transparency in terms of people involved and funding, and nondirective and neutral formulation of content and documentation of the process. In a joint project between the Alliance for Chronic Rare Diseases (ACHSE e. V.) and the German Agency for Quality in Medicine (ÄZQ), ten short information leaflets on different rare diseases have been developed in the past three years, conceived to show the applicability of these criteria. First experiences with this format show that the criteria are adaptive to a broad range of diverse rare diseases and settings. Involving patients and their advocates throughout the whole development process - from prioritization to development of methods and provision of patient experience and coping strategies - is crucial. Insufficient evidence remains a challenge. The examples show that in the absence of proven findings, information that matters to patients and reflects this uncertainty is feasible.

  19. Information

    Ritchie, L David


    This volume thoroughly covers the sub-field of information, and is one of the first in a series which synthesizes the research literature on major concepts in the field of communication. Each concise volume includes a research definition (concept explication) and presents a state-of-the-art analysis of theory and empirical findings related to the concept. After defining the word `information', the author contrasts non-linear and reflexive ideas about human communication with linear perspectives. Information is equated with uncertainty. The result presents a pattern for the process of conceptua

  20. Reliable Quantum Computers

    Preskill, J


    The new field of quantum error correction has developed spectacularly since its origin less than two years ago. Encoded quantum information can be protected from errors that arise due to uncontrolled interactions with the environment. Recovery from errors can work effectively even if occasional mistakes occur during the recovery procedure. Furthermore, encoded quantum information can be processed without serious propagation of errors. Hence, an arbitrarily long quantum computation can be performed reliably, provided that the average probability of error per quantum gate is less than a certain critical value, the accuracy threshold. A quantum computer storing about 10^6 qubits, with a probability of error per quantum gate of order 10^{-6}, would be a formidable factoring engine. Even a smaller, less accurate quantum computer would be able to perform many useful tasks. (This paper is based on a talk presented at the ITP Conference on Quantum Coherence and Decoherence, 15-18 December 1996.)

  1. Metrics for Evaluating Performance of Prognostic Techniques

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition basedmaintenance(CBM)ofcriticalsystems.Alongwith developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently predict...


    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper introduces a generic distributed prognostic health management (PHM) architecture with specific application to the electrical power systems domain. Current...

  3. Health Monitoring and Prognostics for Computer Servers

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Abstract Prognostics solutions for mission critical systems require a comprehensive methodology for proactively detecting and isolating failures, recommending and...

  4. A Survey of Artificial Intelligence for Prognostics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Integrated Systems Health Management includes as key elements fault detection, fault diagnostics, and failure prognostics. Whereas fault detection and diagnostics...

  5. Simulating Degradation Data for Prognostic Algorithm Development

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — PHM08 Challenge Dataset is now publicly available at the NASA Prognostics Respository + Download INTRODUCTION - WHY SIMULATE DEGRADATION DATA? Of various challenges...

  6. Thai venous stroke prognostic score: TV-SPSS.

    Poungvarin, Niphon; Prayoonwiwat, Naraporn; Ratanakorn, Disya; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tassanee; Suwanwela, Nijasri; Phanthumchinda, Kamman; Tiamkoa, Somsak; Chankrachang, Siwaporn; Nidhinandana, Samart; Laptikultham, Somsak; Limsoontarakul, Sansern; Udomphanthuruk, Suthipol


    Prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) has never been studied in Thailand. A simple prognostic score to predict poor prognosis of CVST has also never been reported. The authors are aiming to establish a simple and reliable prognostic score for this condition. The medical records of CVST patients from eight neurological training centers in Thailand who received between April 1993 and September 2005 were reviewed as part of this retrospective study. Clinical features included headache, seizure, stroke risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure on arrival, papilledema, hemiparesis, meningeal irritation sign, location of occluded venous sinuses, hemorrhagic infarction, cerebrospinal fluid opening pressure, treatment options, length of stay, and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using modified Rankin scale (mRS). Poor prognosis (defined as mRS of 3-6) was determined on the discharge date. One hundred ninety four patients' records, 127 females (65.5%) and mean age of 36.6 +/- 14.4 years, were analyzed Fifty-one patients (26.3%) were in the poor outcome group (mRS 3-6). Overall mortality was 8.4%. Univariate analysis and then multivariate analysis using SPSS version 11.5 revealed only four statistically significant predictors influencing outcome of CVST They were underlying malignancy, low GCS, presence of hemorrhagic infarction (for poor outcome), and involvement of lateral sinus (for good outcome). Thai venous stroke prognostic score (TV-SPSS) was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for CVST outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (93%), yet low specificity (33%). The next study should focus on the validation of this score in other prospective populations.

  7. A Prognostic Method for Scheduling Maintenance on the P2- Marx Modulator

    Benwell, Andrew; Burkhart, Craig; Kemp, Mark; Macken, Koen; Nguyen, Minh; MacNair, Dave; Olsen, Jeff; Larsen, Ray; /SLAC


    The SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory is developing a second generation Marx-type modulator for the ILC, the P2-Marx. The modulator is expected to operate reliably in excess of 10{sup 5} hours with minimum downtime. A prognostic system is being implemented with the development of the P2-Marx to monitor and track the health of key high voltage components. This paper discusses the way in which the prognostic system will be implemented and used to monitor the health of the P2-Marx modulator.

  8. Male breast cancer: Looking for better prognostic subgroups.

    Abreu, Miguel Henriques; Afonso, Noémia; Abreu, Pedro Henriques; Menezes, Francisco; Lopes, Paula; Henrique, Rui; Pereira, Deolinda; Lopes, Carlos


    Male Breast Cancer (MBC) remains a poor understood disease. Prognostic factors are not well established and specific prognostic subgroups are warranted. Retrospectively revision of 111 cases treated in the same Cancer Center. Blinded-central pathological revision with immunohistochemical (IHQ) analysis for estrogen (ER), progesterone (PR) and androgen (AR) receptors, HER2, ki67 and p53 was done. Cox regression model was used for uni/multivariate survival analysis. Two classifications of Female Breast Cancer (FBC) subgroups (based in ER, PR, HER2, 2000 classification, and in ER, PR, HER2, ki67, 2013 classification) were used to achieve their prognostic value in MBC patients. Hierarchical clustering was performed to define subgroups based on the six-IHQ panel. According to FBC classifications, the majority of tumors were luminal: A (89.2%; 60.0%) and B (7.2%; 35.8%). Triple negative phenotype was infrequent (2.7%; 3.2%) and HER2 enriched, non-luminal, was rare (≤1% in both). In multivariate analysis the poor prognostic factors were: size >2 cm (HR:1.8; 95%CI:1.0-3.4 years, p = 0.049), absence of ER (HR:4.9; 95%CI:1.7-14.3 years, p = 0.004) and presence of distant metastasis (HR:5.3; 95%CI:2.2-3.1 years, p 0.20). Clustering defined different subgroups, that have prognostic value in multivariate analysis (p = 0.005), with better survival in ER/PR+, AR-, HER2-and ki67/p53 low group (median: 11.5 years; 95%CI: 6.2-16.8 years) and worst in PR-group (median:4.5 years; 95%CI: 1.6-7.8 years). FBC subtypes do not give the same prognostic information in MBC even in luminal groups. Two subgroups with distinct prognosis were identified in a common six-IHQ panel. Future studies must achieve their real prognostic value in these patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. [Prognostic factors in hantavirus infections].

    Kaya, Selçuk


    The hantaviruses classified in Hantavirus genus of Bunyaviridae family, may cause two different types of clinical conditions, namely hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS). Mortality may reach up to 40% in these infections. Hantavirus subtypes (Sin Nombre, Hantaan, Seoul, Puumala, Dobrava, etc) with different virulences represent one of the most significant factors affecting the mortality. Additionally, many other factors including age, gender, humoral immune response, genetic factors, patient's clinical and laboratory findings, transfusion, mechanical ventilation requirement, antiviral treatment and immunotherapy administered to the patient are prognostically important. Increasing age had an unfavorable effect on mortality. While the disease is commonly observed in the male gender, mortality rate is higher in the female gender. The higher the emergent neutralizing antibody response, the virus spread, the number of the infected cells and the cytotoxic T lymphocyte-mediated injury will be lower. The requirement for dialysis is reported to be higher with a poorer prognosis in individuals with HLA-B8, -DR3, -DQ2 alleles, and those with HLA-B27 allele usually experience a milder clinical course. Clinically, the risk of mortality increases in patients with multiple, central nervous system hemorrhage, sepsis, disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) and secondary infection. The presence of adult respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), the requirement for mechanical ventilation, the presence of dyspnea and hemoconcentration in HPS are reported to be the most important prognostic factors associated with death. The correlation of severity and the transfusion requirement with mortality was demonstrated. High serum levels of white blood cells, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), creatinine phophokinase (CPK), C-reactive protein (CRP), prothrombin time (PT), activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), D-dimer and INR (International

  10. Reliability design of information management system based on internet of things%基于物联网的物流信息管理系统可靠性设计

    韦彬贵; 李江洪


    为了适应大规模物流应用系统需求,构建基于分布式模式的物联网物流系统,给出系统可靠性设计方案和算法实现。系统具备物联网物流信息采集、处理和管理系统功能,能够适应大规模物流系统中的信息处理要求,具有很强的数据冗余、纠错和扩展能力。%For adapting to the large-scale physical distribution application system demand, set up to unite net physical distribution system according to the thing of rayleing distribution rayleigh type mode, give system reliability design scheme and algorithm realize.It cannot satisfy the requirement of large-scale logistics applications,. This model is a high reliability of Things logistics information collection, processing and management system, it can adapt to the information processing requirements of large-scale logistics system, and has a strong data redundancy, error correction and expansion capabilities.

  11. Reliability analysis in intelligent machines

    Mcinroy, John E.; Saridis, George N.


    Given an explicit task to be executed, an intelligent machine must be able to find the probability of success, or reliability, of alternative control and sensing strategies. By using concepts for information theory and reliability theory, new techniques for finding the reliability corresponding to alternative subsets of control and sensing strategies are proposed such that a desired set of specifications can be satisfied. The analysis is straightforward, provided that a set of Gaussian random state variables is available. An example problem illustrates the technique, and general reliability results are presented for visual servoing with a computed torque-control algorithm. Moreover, the example illustrates the principle of increasing precision with decreasing intelligence at the execution level of an intelligent machine.

  12. Reliability Generalization: "Lapsus Linguae"

    Smith, Julie M.


    This study examines the proposed Reliability Generalization (RG) method for studying reliability. RG employs the application of meta-analytic techniques similar to those used in validity generalization studies to examine reliability coefficients. This study explains why RG does not provide a proper research method for the study of reliability,…

  13. Prognostic radiographic aspects of spondylolisthesis

    Saraste, H.; Brostroem, L.A.; Aparisi, T.


    A series of 202 patients (133 men, 69 women) with lumbar spondylolysis were examined radiographically on two occasions, first at the time of diagnosis and later at a follow-up, after an observation period of 20 years or more. The films from patients in groups without and with moderate and severe olisthesis were evaluated with respect to variables describing lumbosacral lordosis, wedging of the spondylolytic vertebra, lengths of the transverse processes and iliolumbar ligaments, disk height, progression of slipping, and influence on measured olisthesis of lumbar spine flexion and extension at the radiographic examination. The evaluation was made with special attention to possible signs which could be predictive for the prognosis of vertebral slipping. Progression of slipping did not differ between patients diagnosed as adults or adolescents. Reduction of disk height was correlated to the degree of slipping present at the initial examination and to the progression of olisthesis. Flexion and extension of the lumbar spine did not modify the degree of olisthesis. Data concerning the lengths of the transverse processes and the iliolumbar ligaments, and lumbar lordosis, cannot be used for prognostic purposes. The lumbar index reflecting the degree of wedge deformity of the spondylolytic vertebra was shown to be the only variable of prognostic value for the development of vertebral slipping.

  14. Prognostic Analysis System and Methods of Operation

    MacKey, Ryan M. E. (Inventor); Sneddon, Robert (Inventor)


    A prognostic analysis system and methods of operating the system are provided. In particular, a prognostic analysis system for the analysis of physical system health applicable to mechanical, electrical, chemical and optical systems and methods of operating the system are described herein.

  15. Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

    Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, I.


    Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

  16. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    M. Wolbers (Marcel); S. Blanche (Stephane); M. Koller (Michael); J.C.M. Witteman (Jacqueline); T.A. Gerds (Thomas)


    textabstractThe concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and

  17. A robust prognostic gene expression signature for early stage lung adenocarcinoma

    Krzystanek, Marcin; Moldvay, Judit; Szüts, David;


    Stage I lung adenocarcinoma is usually not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy; however, around half of these patients do not survive 5 years. Therefore, a reliable prognostic biomarker for early stage patients would be critical to identify those most likely to benefit from early additional treatm...... not given adjuvant therapy. Seven genes consistently obtained statistical significance in Cox regression for overall survival. The combined signature has a weighted mean hazard ratio of 3.2 in all cohorts and 3.0 (C.I. 1.3-7.4, p ...... treatments. Several studies have searched for gene expression prognostic biomarkers for lung adenocarcinoma, but these have not yielded a widely accepted prognosticator. We analyzed gene expression from seven published lung adenocarcinoma cohorts for which we included only stage I and II patients who were...

  18. 基于多源信息可信度的高炉料面温度检测方法%Temperature Detection Method of Blast Furnace Burden Surface Based on the Reliability of Multi-source Information

    安剑奇; 吴敏; 何勇; 曹卫华


    针对高炉料面温度难以准确检测的问题,提出一种基于多源信息可信度的高炉料面温度在线检测方法.根据高炉3种异类检测信息的各自特点分别估计料面温度,采用可信度理论通过融合单一信息的估计值计算高炉料面温度.在某钢铁企业2 200m3高炉应用结果表明,所提出的方法能够准确地检测高炉料面温度,为复杂冶金过程状态检测提供了新的解决思路.%Focusing on the difficulty of precisely detecting blast furnace(BF) burden surface temperature,a novel temperature detection method of BF burden surface based on the reliability of multi-source information was proposed.Firstly,the burden surface temperature is estimated respectively according to the individual features of three kinds of singular heterogeneous information;then the BF burden surface temperature is calculated by fusing the results estimated by the three kinds of singular information based on reliability theory.The application on a 2 200 m3 B F in some steel enterprise shows the method proposed can realize the real-time and precise detection of burden surface temperature,which eventually provides an effective solution for the status monitoring of complicated metallurgy process.

  19. Prognostic value of circulating catestatin levels for in-hospital heart failure in patients with acute myocardial infarction



    Objective To determine whether circulating level of catestatin(CST) could provide prognostic information independently of conventional risk markers for the development of in-hospital heart failure in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction(STEMI).

  20. Prognostic value of B-Type natriuretic peptides in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the PEACE Trial

    Omland, Torbjørn; Sabatine, Marc S; Jablonski, Kathleen A; Rice, Madeline Murguia; Hsia, Judith; Wergeland, Ragnhild; Landaas, Sverre; Rouleau, Jean L; Domanski, Michael J; Hall, Christian; Pfeffer, Marc A; Braunwald, Eugene


    ..., the incremental prognostic information obtained from these two biomarkers compared with traditional risk factors, and their ability to identify patients who may benefit from angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibition...

  1. 药物信息服务实践应用的信度与效度分析%Reliability and Validity Analysis of the Practical Application of the Drug Information Service

    吴淼; 吴晶; 刘倩; 刘浩


    为建立科学的药物信息服务评价体系,我们采用问卷调查法对新疆医科大学第四附属医院药房及患者信息进行系统性调查,利用Excel 和SPSS Statistics进行数据整理分析,采用Cronbach's Alpha系数、因子分析等方法对问卷做了信度和效度评价分析,初步提出了医院药物信息服务的要素。结果,本次研究的过程和方法为他人在药物信息乃至其它信息分析中提供重要的参考依据。%In order to establish a scientific drug information service evaluation system, we carried out a systematic survey of the pharmacy and patient information in Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University by the questionnaire. To analyze and evaluate the pharmaceutical drug information service elements, we used SPSS Statistics and Excellsoftware to process the data collected. Then we analyzed the reliability and validity of the questionnaire by the Cronbach's alpha coefficient and factor analysis method etc. We were trying to propose the elements of the hospital drug information service. Result:The process and methods of this study provide important reference for others in the drug information and the other information analysis.

  2. Software Reliability Cases: The Bridge Between Hardware, Software and System Safety and Reliability

    Herrmann, D.S.; Peercy, D.E.


    High integrity/high consequence systems must be safe and reliable; hence it is only logical that both software safety and software reliability cases should be developed. Risk assessments in safety cases evaluate the severity of the consequences of a hazard and the likelihood of it occurring. The likelihood is directly related to system and software reliability predictions. Software reliability cases, as promoted by SAE JA 1002 and 1003, provide a practical approach to bridge the gap between hardware reliability, software reliability, and system safety and reliability by using a common methodology and information structure. They also facilitate early insight into whether or not a project is on track for meeting stated safety and reliability goals, while facilitating an informed assessment by regulatory and/or contractual authorities.

  3. Assuring reliability program effectiveness.

    Ball, L. W.


    An attempt is made to provide simple identification and description of techniques that have proved to be most useful either in developing a new product or in improving reliability of an established product. The first reliability task is obtaining and organizing parts failure rate data. Other tasks are parts screening, tabulation of general failure rates, preventive maintenance, prediction of new product reliability, and statistical demonstration of achieved reliability. Five principal tasks for improving reliability involve the physics of failure research, derating of internal stresses, control of external stresses, functional redundancy, and failure effects control. A final task is the training and motivation of reliability specialist engineers.

  4. Fuzzy Reliability Analysis of Settlement of Subgrade Based on Normal Information Spread Principle%基于正态信息扩散原理的路基沉降模糊可靠度分析

    徐志军; 郑俊杰; 边晓亚


    Based on normal information spread theory, a new method is presented to fit the probability distribution of settlement of subgrade, and the correctness of the presented method is verified using Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing method. Beta distribution is chosen as the membership function of the fuzzy event of settlement for subgrade, which solves the deficiencies of common membership function. Meanwhile, the fuzzy reliability index of settlement for subgrade is calculated according to fuzzy reliability theory. Finally, the validity of presented method is verified through case study.%基于正态信息理论,给出了路基沉降概率分布的拟合方法,并利用精度较高K-S检验法验证了该方法的正确性.将Beta分布引入路基沉降模糊失效事件的隶属函数中,解决了常用隶属函数存在的不足.同时,利用模糊可靠度理论,给出了路基沉降模糊可靠度的计算公式.最后通过工程实例验证了本文方法的有效性.

  5. Enlightenment on Computer Network Reliability From Transportation Network Reliability

    Hu Wenjun; Zhou Xizhao


    Referring to transportation network reliability problem, five new computer network reliability definitions are proposed and discussed. They are computer network connectivity reliability, computer network time reliability, computer network capacity reliability, computer network behavior reliability and computer network potential reliability. Finally strategies are suggested to enhance network reliability.

  6. Information


    There are unstructured abstracts (no more than 256 words) and structured abstracts (no more than 480). The specific requirements for structured abstracts are as follows:An informative, structured abstracts of no more than 4-80 words should accompany each manuscript. Abstracts for original contributions should be structured into the following sections. AIM (no more than 20 words): Only the purpose should be included. Please write the aim as the form of "To investigate/ study/..."; MATERIALS AND METHODS (no more than 140 words); RESULTS (no more than 294 words): You should present P values where appropnate and must provide relevant data to illustrate how they were obtained, e.g. 6.92 ± 3.86 vs 3.61 ± 1.67, P< 0.001; CONCLUSION (no more than 26 words).

  7. Human Reliability Program Overview

    Bodin, Michael


    This presentation covers the high points of the Human Reliability Program, including certification/decertification, critical positions, due process, organizational structure, program components, personnel security, an overview of the US DOE reliability program, retirees and academia, and security program integration.

  8. Novel prognostic score for patients with gastric carcinoma%一个新的胃癌预后记分

    Baihong Zhang; Hongyun Yue; Long Chen; Haizhong Wang; Jiawei Xu; Xianghui Wang


    Objective: The lack of a simple criterion for gastric carcinoma creates a persistent challenge for clinicians trying to provide patients with useful prognostic information. The aim of this study was to identify baseline prognostic factors, and use this information to establish a simple criterion to predict outcome in gastric carcinoma. Methods: Between 2005 and 2010,155 patients with gastric carcinoma, were enrolled. Clinicopathologic prognostic factors were evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis. Results: Of the 155 patients, 48 (30.9%) died. Three independent poor prognostic factors were identified by multivariate analysis: gross type > or = 3 (hazard ratio [HR], 1.564; 95% CI, 1.067 to 2.294), peritoneal dissemination (HR, 3.750; 95% CI, 1.760 to 7.989) and lymphatic duct invasion (HR, 3.578; 95% CI, 1.422 to 9.004). One point was added for each category among three independent prognostic factors. Prognostic score (PS) was determined by an aggregate of these points for each category. There existed a significant difference between survival of patients with PS 0 or 1 and 2 (P <0.0001). Conclusion: Three poor prognostic factors were identified and a simple criteria was devised. Information from this analysis can be used to predict prognosis of gastric carcinoma with a strict stratification.

  9. Reliable Design Versus Trust

    Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth A.


    This presentation focuses on reliability and trust for the users portion of the FPGA design flow. It is assumed that the manufacturer prior to hand-off to the user tests FPGA internal components. The objective is to present the challenges of creating reliable and trusted designs. The following will be addressed: What makes a design vulnerable to functional flaws (reliability) or attackers (trust)? What are the challenges for verifying a reliable design versus a trusted design?

  10. Viking Lander reliability program

    Pilny, M. J.


    The Viking Lander reliability program is reviewed with attention given to the development of the reliability program requirements, reliability program management, documents evaluation, failure modes evaluation, production variation control, failure reporting and correction, and the parts program. Lander hardware failures which have occurred during the mission are listed.

  11. A Method of Reliability Allocation of a Complicated Large System

    WANG Zhi-sheng; QIN Yuan-yuan; WANG Dao-bo


    Aiming at the problem of reliability allocation for a complicated large system, a new thought is brought up. Reliability allocation should be a kind of decision-making behavior; therefore the more information is used when apportioning a reliability index, the more reasonable an allocation is obtained. Reliability allocation for a complicated large system consists of two processes, the first one is a reliability information reporting process fromt bottom to top, and the other one is a reliability index apportioning process from top to bottom. By a typical example, we illustrate the concrete process of reliability allocation algorithms.


    武爱文; 顾晋; 薛钟麒; 王怡; 徐光炜


    To explore the death-related factors of stageⅠrectal cancer patients. Methods: 89 cases of stage I rectal cancer patients between 1985 and 2000 were retrospectively studied for prognostic factors. Factors including age, gender, tumor size, circumferential occupation, gross type, pathological type, depth of tumor invasion, surgical procedure, adjuvant chemotherapy and postoperative complication were chosen for cox multivariate analysis (forward procedure) using Spss software (10.0 version). Results: multivariate analysis demonstrated that muscular invasion was an independent negative prognostic factor for stageⅠrectal cancer patients (P=0.003). Conclusion: Muscular invasion is a negative prognostic factor for stage I rectal cancer patients.

  13. 75 FR 81157 - Version One Regional Reliability Standard for Transmission Operations


    ... Henery (Technical Information), Office of Electric Reliability, Division of Policy Analysis and...- 8636. Danny Johnson (Technical Information), Office of Electric Reliability, Division of Reliability... by a physical difference in the Bulk-Power System. When the ERO reviews a regional...

  14. Novel approach for evaluation of service reliability for electricity customers

    JIANG; John; N


    Understanding reliability value for electricity customer is important to market-based reliability management. This paper proposes a novel approach to evaluate the reliability for electricity customers by using indifference curve between economic compensation for power interruption and service reliability of electricity. Indifference curve is formed by calculating different planning schemes of network expansion for different reliability requirements of customers, which reveals the information about economic values for different reliability levels for electricity customers, so that the reliability based on market supply demand mechanism can be established and economic signals can be provided for reliability management and enhancement.

  15. Novel approach for evaluation of service reliability for electricity customers

    KANG ChongQing; GAO Yan; JIANG John N; ZHONG Jin; XIA Qing


    Understanding reliability value for electricity customer is important to market-based reliability man-agement. This paper proposes a novel approach to evaluate the reliability for electricity customers by using indifference curve between economic compensation for power interruption and service reliability of electricity. Indifference curve is formed by calculating different planning schemes of network ex-pansion for different reliability requirements of customers, which reveals the information about eco-nomic values for different reliability levels for electricity customers, so that the reliability based on market supply demand mechanism can be established and economic signals can be provided for reli-ability management and enhancement.

  16. Prognostic values of Notch receptors in breast cancer.

    Xu, Junming; Song, Fangbin; Jin, Tao; Qin, Jun; Wu, Junyi; Wang, Min; Wang, Ye; Liu, Jun


    Notch receptors are frequently deregulated in several human malignancies including human breast cancer. Activation of Notch has been reported to cause mammary carcinomas in mice. However, the prognostic value of individual Notch receptors in breast cancer (BC) patients remains elusive. In the current study, we investigated the prognostic value of Notch receptors in human BC patients. More specifically, we investigated the prognostic value of four Notch receptors in breast cancer patients through "the Kaplan-Meier plotter" (KM plotter) database, in which updated gene expression data and survival information are from a total of 3554 breast cancer patients. Our results showed that Notch1 messenger RNA (mRNA) high expression was correlated to worsen overall survival (OS) in PgR-negative BC patients. Notch2, Notch3, and Notch4 mRNA high expressions were found to be correlated to better OS for all breast cancer patients. Notch2 was also found to be correlated to better OS in lymph node-negative breast cancer patients and HER2-positive breast cancer patients. These results will be useful for better understanding of the heterogeneity and complexity in the molecular biology of breast cancer and for developing tools to more accurately predict their prognosis and design their customized treatment strategies.

  17. Reliability Characteristics of Power Plants

    Zbynek Martinek


    Full Text Available This paper describes the phenomenon of reliability of power plants. It gives an explanation of the terms connected with this topic as their proper understanding is important for understanding the relations and equations which model the possible real situations. The reliability phenomenon is analysed using both the exponential distribution and the Weibull distribution. The results of our analysis are specific equations giving information about the characteristics of the power plants, the mean time of operations and the probability of failure-free operation. Equations solved for the Weibull distribution respect the failures as well as the actual operating hours. Thanks to our results, we are able to create a model of dynamic reliability for prediction of future states. It can be useful for improving the current situation of the unit as well as for creating the optimal plan of maintenance and thus have an impact on the overall economics of the operation of these power plants.

  18. Quality of life data as prognostic indicators of survival in cancer patients: an overview of the literature from 1982 to 2008

    Montazeri Ali


    data appeared to provide the most reliable information for helping clinicians to establish prognostic criteria for treating their cancer patients. It is recommended that future studies should use valid instruments, apply sound methodological approaches and adequate multivariate statistical analyses adjusted for socio-demographic characteristics and known clinical prognostic factors with a satisfactory validation strategy. This strategy is likely to yield more accurate and specific quality of life-related prognostic variables for specific cancers.

  19. URREF Reliability Versus Credibility in Information Fusion


    Valcartier Québec City, QC, G3J 1X5 Valentina Dragos ONERA 91761 Palaiseau Cedex, France Paulo C. G. Costa C4I Center - George Mason University Fairfax, VA, 22030 Jean Dezert ONERA DTIM/EVF 91761

  20. Validation of Land Cover Products Using Reliability Evaluation Methods

    Wenzhong Shi


    Full Text Available Validation of land cover products is a fundamental task prior to data applications. Current validation schemes and methods are, however, suited only for assessing classification accuracy and disregard the reliability of land cover products. The reliability evaluation of land cover products should be undertaken to provide reliable land cover information. In addition, the lack of high-quality reference data often constrains validation and affects the reliability results of land cover products. This study proposes a validation schema to evaluate the reliability of land cover products, including two methods, namely, result reliability evaluation and process reliability evaluation. Result reliability evaluation computes the reliability of land cover products using seven reliability indicators. Process reliability evaluation analyzes the reliability propagation in the data production process to obtain the reliability of land cover products. Fuzzy fault tree analysis is introduced and improved in the reliability analysis of a data production process. Research results show that the proposed reliability evaluation scheme is reasonable and can be applied to validate land cover products. Through the analysis of the seven indicators of result reliability evaluation, more information on land cover can be obtained for strategic decision-making and planning, compared with traditional accuracy assessment methods. Process reliability evaluation without the need for reference data can facilitate the validation and reflect the change trends of reliabilities to some extent.

  1. Metrics for Evaluating Performance of Prognostics Techniques

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition based maintenance (CBM) of critical systems. Along with developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently...

  2. Tackling V&V for Prognostics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We believe our approach to gathering and organizing prognostics V the descriptive text recorded proved on occasion to be insufficient to serve as a standalone...

  3. Distilling the Verification Process for Prognostics Algorithms

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of prognostics and health management (PHM) systems is to ensure system safety, and reduce downtime and maintenance costs. It is important that a PHM system...

  4. Diagnostic and Prognostic Biomarkers in Melanoma

    Leininger, Jennifer; Hamby, Carl; Safai, Bijan


    Melanoma is a lethal melanocytic neoplasm. Unfortunately, the histological diagnosis can be difficult at times. Distinguishing ambiguous melanocytic neoplasms that are benign nevi from those that represent true melanoma is important both for treatment and prognosis. Diagnostic biomarkers currently used to assist in the diagnosis of melanoma are usually specific only for melanocytic neoplasms and not necessarily for their ability to metastasize. Traditional prognostic biomarkers include depth of invasion and mitotic count. Newer diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers utilize immunohistochemical staining as well as ribonucleic acid, micro-ribonucleic acid, and deoxyribonucleic acid assays and fluorescence in situ hybridization. Improved diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers are of increasing importance in the treatment of melanoma with the development of newer and more targeted therapies. Herein, the authors review many of the common as well as newer diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers used in melanoma. PMID:25013535

  5. Pediatric renal transplantation: Results and prognostic factors

    Po-Cheng Huang


    Conclusion: For pediatric patients, we found that renal transplantation is now a safe and effective surgical procedure for children with end-stage renal disease. Acute rejection and male gender were identified as prognostic factors for poor graft survival.

  6. Evaluating Algorithm Performance Metrics Tailored for Prognostics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics has taken center stage in Condition Based Maintenance (CBM) where it is desired to estimate Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a system so that remedial...

  7. Detection and Prognostics on Low Dimensional Systems

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper describes the application of known and novel prognostic algorithms on systems that can be described by low dimensional, potentially nonlinear dynamics....

  8. Prognostic indicators influencing short term outcomes among ...

    Prognostic indicators influencing short term outcomes among operated head injury patients ... AFRICAN JOURNALS ONLINE (AJOL) · Journals · Advanced Search ... indicators for short term outcomes in operated head injury patients at KCMC.

  9. Prognostic indices in childhood heart failure

    hood heart failure and highlight the factors that affect out- come among cases of heart failure ... month period were studied prospectively. Diagnosis of heart ... a case-fatality rate of 24% among the study population. Poor prognostic indices ...

  10. Precursor Parameter Identification for IGBT Prognostics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Precursor parameters have been identified to enable development of a prognostic approach for insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBT). The IGBT were subjected to...

  11. Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by...

  12. Prognostic Factors for Refractory Status Epilepticus

    J. Gordon Millichap


    Full Text Available Researchers at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN studied the outcome and identified prognostic factors for refractory status epilepticus (RSE in 54 adult patients, median age 52 years [range 18-93].

  13. A reliability measure of protein-protein interactions and a reliability measure-based search engine.

    Park, Byungkyu; Han, Kyungsook


    Many methods developed for estimating the reliability of protein-protein interactions are based on the topology of protein-protein interaction networks. This paper describes a new reliability measure for protein-protein interactions, which does not rely on the topology of protein interaction networks, but expresses biological information on functional roles, sub-cellular localisations and protein classes as a scoring schema. The new measure is useful for filtering many spurious interactions, as well as for estimating the reliability of protein interaction data. In particular, the reliability measure can be used to search protein-protein interactions with the desired reliability in databases. The reliability-based search engine is available at We believe this is the first search engine for interacting proteins, which is made available to public. The search engine and the reliability measure of protein interactions should provide useful information for determining proteins to focus on.

  14. Prognostic markers of canine pyometra

    M.C. Sant'Anna


    Full Text Available The pyometra is a disease that affects middle age and elderly female dogs during diestrus. Hormonal, microbiological, biochemical and hematological aspects are well described. However, few studies have evaluated the role of each in the prognosis of canine pyometra. The aim of this study was to identify markers associated with clinical worsening of dogs with pyometra. We prospectively evaluated 80 dogs with pyometra treated surgically. Group 1 consisted of dogs that were discharged within 48 hours after surgery and Group 2 consisted of those who required prolonged hospitalization or died. The findings of hematological, biochemical and blood lactate levels were compared between groups and variables such as bacterial multidrug resistance, systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, hyperlactatemia and increased creatinine were analyzed through the dispersion of frequencies between groups. Among the variables studied, the presence of SIRS and elevated serum creatinine >2.5mg/mL were effective in predicting the worsening of the disease and can be used as prognostic markers of canine pyometra.

  15. Uveal Melanoma Treatment and Prognostication.

    Dogrusöz, Mehmet; Jager, Martine J; Damato, Bertil


    Approximately 90% of uveal melanoma develop in the choroid, with the remainder arising in the ciliary body or the iris. The treatment of uveal melanoma is aimed at conserving the eye and useful vision, and, if possible, preventing metastatic disease. Enucleation is now reserved for tumors that are large and/or involve the optic disc, having largely been replaced by various forms of radiotherapy (plaque brachy-therapy, proton beam or stereotactic radiotherapy) and laser therapy. Whereas iridectomy and iridocyclectomy are widely performed, transscleral exoresection of choroidal tumors is performed only in a few centers because it requires special skills and hypotensive anesthesia. Transretinal endoresection using vitrectomy equipment is easier but controversial because of concerns about tumor seeding. Long-term postoperative surveillance is necessary to identify and treat local tumor recurrence and any other complications, such as radiation-induced morbidity, and to provide counseling to the patient. Factors predicting metastasis include older age, large tumor size, ciliary body involvement, extraocular spread, epithelioid cytomorphology, chromosome 3 loss and chromosome 8q gain, class 2 gene expression profile, loss of BRCA1-associated protein-1 (BAP1), and the presence of inflammation. Prognostication is enhanced by multi-variable analysis combining clinical, histologic, and genetic factors, also taking the patient's age and sex into account. As there is a lack of options for treating metastases, much research is focused on identifying potential therapeutic targets. Copyright 2017 Asia-Pacific Academy of Ophthalmology.

  16. Generic prognostic factors for musculoskeletal pain in primary care: a systematic review

    Artus, Majid; Campbell, Paul; Mallen, Christian D; van der Windt, Danielle A W


    Objectives To summarise the evidence for generic prognostic factors across a range of musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions. Setting primary care. Methods and outcomes Comprehensive systematic literature review. MEDLINE, CINAHL, PsychINFO and EMBASE were searched for prospective cohort studies, based in primary care (search period—inception to December 2015). Studies were included if they reported on adults consulting with MSK conditions and provided data on associations between baseline characteristics (prognostic factors) and outcome. A prognostic factor was identified as generic when significantly associated with any outcome for 2 or more different MSK conditions. Evidence synthesis focused on consistency of findings and study quality. Results 14 682 citations were identified and 78 studies were included (involving more than 48 000 participants with 18 different outcome domains). 51 studies were on spinal pain/back pain/low back pain, 12 on neck/shoulder/arm pain, 3 on knee pain, 3 on hip pain and 9 on multisite pain/widespread pain. Total quality scores ranged from 5 to 14 (mean 11) and 65 studies (83%) scored 9 or more. Out of a total of 78 different prognostic factors for which data were provided, the following factors are considered to be generic prognostic factors for MSK conditions: widespread pain, high functional disability, somatisation, high pain intensity and presence of previous pain episodes. In addition, consistent evidence was found for use of pain medications not to be associated with outcome, suggesting that this factor is not a generic prognostic factor for MSK conditions. Conclusions This large review provides new evidence for generic prognostic factors for MSK conditions in primary care. Such factors include pain intensity, widespread pain, high functional disability, somatisation and movement restriction. This information can be used to screen and select patients for targeted treatment in clinical research as well as to inform the

  17. Reliability of information on varicella history in preschool children Confiabilidade da informação sobre antecedente de varicela em crianças pré-escolares

    Lúcia Ferro Bricks


    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To verify how reliable is the information provided by parents about the history of varicella in their children. METHODS: 204 parents of previously healthy children attending two municipal day-care centers of São Paulo city were interviewed between August 2003 and September 2005. A standardized form was filled out with information regarding age, sex, history of varicella and other diseases, drug use and antecedent of immunization, After medical history, physical examination and checking of immunization records, 5 ml of blood were collected for ELISA (in house varicella test. Exclusion criteria were: age less than 1 year or more than 60 months, previous immunization against chickenpox, presence of co-morbidities or recent use of immunosuppressive drugs. Data were filed in a data bank using the Excel 2003 Microsoft Office Program and stored in a PC computer. The exact Fisher test was employed to calculate sensibility, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of history of varicella informed by children's parents. RESULTS: The age of the children varied from 12 to 54 months (median, 26 months; 49 (24% children had positive history of varicella, 155 (76% a negative or doubtful history. The predictive positive and negative values of the information were 90% and 93%, respectively (p = 0.0001. CONCLUSIONS: The degree of reliability of information about history of varicella informed by parents of children attending day care centers was high and useful to establish recommendations on varicella blocking immunization in day-care centers.OBJETIVOS: Verificar o grau de confiabilidade da informação fornecida pelos pais de crianças atendidas em creches sobre o antecedente de varicela. MÉTODOS: Os pais de 204 crianças previamente saudáveis matriculadas em duas creches da cidade de São Paulo foram entrevistados entre Agosto de 2003 e Setembro de 2005 para preenchimento de um questionário padronizado com informações sobre idade

  18. Algorithm development for Prognostics and Health Management (PHM).

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Campbell, James E.; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Lowder, Kelly S.


    This report summarizes the results of a three-year LDRD project on prognostics and health management. System failure over some future time interval (an alternative definition is the capability to predict the remaining useful life of a system). Prognostics are integrated with health monitoring (through inspections, sensors, etc.) to provide an overall PHM capability that optimizes maintenance actions and results in higher availability at a lower cost. Our goal in this research was to develop PHM tools that could be applied to a wide variety of equipment (repairable, non-repairable, manufacturing, weapons, battlefield equipment, etc.) and require minimal customization to move from one system to the next. Thus, our approach was to develop a toolkit of reusable software objects/components and architecture for their use. We have developed two software tools: an Evidence Engine and a Consequence Engine. The Evidence Engine integrates information from a variety of sources in order to take into account all the evidence that impacts a prognosis for system health. The Evidence Engine has the capability for feature extraction, trend detection, information fusion through Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN), and estimation of remaining useful life. The Consequence Engine involves algorithms to analyze the consequences of various maintenance actions. The Consequence Engine takes as input a maintenance and use schedule, spares information, and time-to-failure data on components, then generates maintenance and failure events, and evaluates performance measures such as equipment availability, mission capable rate, time to failure, and cost. This report summarizes the capabilities we have developed, describes the approach and architecture of the two engines, and provides examples of their use. 'Prognostics' refers to the capability to predict the probability of

  19. Prognostics and Life Beyond 60 for Nuclear Power Plants

    Leonard J. Bond; Pradeep Ramuhalli; Magdy S. Tawfik; Nancy J. Lybeck


    Safe, secure, reliable and sustainable energy supply is vital for advanced and industrialized life styles. To meet growing energy demand there is interest in longer term operation (LTO) for the existing nuclear power plant fleet and enhancing capabilities in new build. There is increasing use of condition based maintenance (CBM) for active components and periodic in service inspection (ISI) for passive systems: there is growing interest in deploying on-line monitoring. Opportunities exist to move beyond monitoring and diagnosis based on pattern recognition and anomaly detection to and prognostics with the ability to provide an estimate of remaining useful life (RUL). The adoption of digital I&C systems provides a framework within which added functionality including on-line monitoring can be deployed, and used to maintain and even potentially enhance safety, while at the same time improving planning and reducing both operations and maintenance costs.

  20. Prognostics and Life Beyond 60 Years for Nuclear Power Plants

    Bond, Leonard J.; Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Tawfik, Magdy; Lybeck, Nancy


    Safe, secure, reliable and sustainable energy supply is vital for advanced and industrialized life styles. To meet growing energy demand there is interest in longer term operation (LTO) for the existing nuclear power plant fleet and enhancing capabilities in new build. There is increasing use of condition based maintenance (CBM) for active components and growing interest in deploying on-line monitoring instead of periodic in service inspection (ISI) for passive systems. Opportunities exist to move beyond monitoring and diagnosis based on pattern recognition and anomaly detection to prognostics with the ability to provide an estimate of remaining useful life (RUL). The adoption of digital I&C systems provides a framework within which added functionality including on-line monitoring can be deployed, and used to maintain and even potentially enhance safety, while at the same time improving planning and reducing both operations and maintenance costs.

  1. Gearbox Reliability Collaborative (GRC) Description and Loading

    Oyague, F.


    This document describes simulated turbine load cases in accordance to the IEC 61400-1 Ed.3 standard, which is representative of the typical wind turbine design process. The information presented herein is intended to provide a broad understanding of the gearbox reliability collaborative 750kW drivetrain and turbine configuration. In addition, fatigue and ultimate strength drivetrain loads resulting from simulations are presented. This information provides the bases for the analytical work of the gearbox reliability collaborative effort.

  2. Prognostic value of procalcitonin in hospitalized patients with lower respiratory tract infections

    Nobre, Vandack; Borges, Isabela


    Lower respiratory tract infections are common and potentially lethal conditions and are a major cause of inadequate antibiotic prescriptions. Characterization of disease severity and prognostic prediction in affected patients can aid disease management and can increase accuracy in determining the need for and place of hospitalization. The inclusion of biomarkers, particularly procalcitonin, in the decision taken process is a promising strategy. This study aims to present a narrative review of the potential applications and limitations of procalcitonin as a prognostic marker in hospitalized patients with lower respiratory tract infections. The studies on this topic are heterogeneous with respect to procalcitonin measurement techniques, cutoff values, clinical settings, and disease severity. The results show that procalcitonin delivers moderate performance for prognostic prediction in patients with lower respiratory tract infections; its predictive performance was not higher than that of classical methods, and knowledge of procalcitonin levels is most useful when interpreted together with other clinical and laboratory results. Overall, repeated measurement of the procalcitonin levels during the first days of treatment provides more prognostic information than a single measurement; however, information on the cost-effectiveness of this procedure in intensive care patients is lacking. The results of studies that evaluated the prognostic value of initial procalcitonin levels in patients with community-acquired pneumonia are more consistent and have greater potential for practical application; in this case, low procalcitonin levels identify those patients with a low risk of adverse outcomes. PMID:27305038

  3. Reliable knowledge discovery

    Dai, Honghua; Smirnov, Evgueni


    Reliable Knowledge Discovery focuses on theory, methods, and techniques for RKDD, a new sub-field of KDD. It studies the theory and methods to assure the reliability and trustworthiness of discovered knowledge and to maintain the stability and consistency of knowledge discovery processes. RKDD has a broad spectrum of applications, especially in critical domains like medicine, finance, and military. Reliable Knowledge Discovery also presents methods and techniques for designing robust knowledge-discovery processes. Approaches to assessing the reliability of the discovered knowledge are introduc

  4. Reliability of fluid systems

    Kopáček Jaroslav


    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the importance of detection reliability, especially in complex fluid systems for demanding production technology. The initial criterion for assessing the reliability is the failure of object (element, which is seen as a random variable and their data (values can be processed using by the mathematical methods of theory probability and statistics. They are defined the basic indicators of reliability and their applications in calculations of serial, parallel and backed-up systems. For illustration, there are calculation examples of indicators of reliability for various elements of the system and for the selected pneumatic circuit.

  5. Circuit design for reliability

    Cao, Yu; Wirth, Gilson


    This book presents physical understanding, modeling and simulation, on-chip characterization, layout solutions, and design techniques that are effective to enhance the reliability of various circuit units.  The authors provide readers with techniques for state of the art and future technologies, ranging from technology modeling, fault detection and analysis, circuit hardening, and reliability management. Provides comprehensive review on various reliability mechanisms at sub-45nm nodes; Describes practical modeling and characterization techniques for reliability; Includes thorough presentation of robust design techniques for major VLSI design units; Promotes physical understanding with first-principle simulations.

  6. Reliable design of electronic equipment an engineering guide

    Natarajan, Dhanasekharan


    This book explains reliability techniques with examples from electronics design for the benefit of engineers. It presents the application of de-rating, FMEA, overstress analyses and reliability improvement tests for designing reliable electronic equipment. Adequate information is provided for designing computerized reliability database system to support the application of the techniques by designers. Pedantic terms and the associated mathematics of reliability engineering discipline are excluded for the benefit of comprehensiveness and practical applications. This book offers excellent support

  7. PV Systems Reliability Final Technical Report.

    Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Flicker, Jack David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Johnson, Jay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Armijo, Kenneth Miguel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Gonzalez, Sigifredo [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Schindelholz, Eric John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sorensen, Neil R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Yang, Benjamin Bing-Yeh [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    The continued exponential growth of photovoltaic technologies paves a path to a solar-powered world, but requires continued progress toward low-cost, high-reliability, high-performance photovoltaic (PV) systems. High reliability is an essential element in achieving low-cost solar electricity by reducing operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and extending system lifetime and availability, but these attributes are difficult to verify at the time of installation. Utilities, financiers, homeowners, and planners are demanding this information in order to evaluate their financial risk as a prerequisite to large investments. Reliability research and development (R&D) is needed to build market confidence by improving product reliability and by improving predictions of system availability, O&M cost, and lifetime. This project is focused on understanding, predicting, and improving the reliability of PV systems. The two areas being pursued include PV arc-fault and ground fault issues, and inverter reliability.

  8. Canine distemper virus antigen detection in external epithelia of recently vaccinated, sick dogs by fluorescence microscopy is a valuable prognostic indicator.

    Kapil, Sanjay; Neel, Tina


    Currently, there are no reliable predictors of the clinical outcomes of domesticated dogs that have been recently vaccinated against canine distemper virus (CDV) and develop respiratory disease. In this study, vaccinated dogs from Oklahoma City that were showing clinical signs of respiratory disease were evaluated for CDV antigen using a direct fluorescent antibody test (FAT). Clinical outcomes after standard symptomatic therapy for respiratory disease were recorded, and a statistical analysis of the results was performed. We present our study showing that CDV FAT results were predictive of clinical recovery (prognostic indicator, prospects of clinical recovery) among vaccinated dogs showing clinical signs of respiratory disease. Negative CDV FAT results equated to 80% chances of recovery after symptomatic therapy, compared to 55% chances of recovery when the CDV FAT results were positive. Based on the results of this study, we show that veterinarians can make better informed decisions about the clinical outcomes of suspected CDV cases, with 2-h turnaround times, by using the CDV FAT. Thus, antemortem examination with the CDV FAT on external epithelia of recently vaccinated, sick dogs is a clinically useful diagnostic test and valuable prognostic indicator for veterinarians. Application of the CDV FAT to these samples avoids unnecessary euthanasia of dogs with suspected CDV.

  9. LED system reliability

    Driel, W.D. van; Yuan, C.A.; Koh, S.; Zhang, G.Q.


    This paper presents our effort to predict the system reliability of Solid State Lighting (SSL) applications. A SSL system is composed of a LED engine with micro-electronic driver(s) that supplies power to the optic design. Knowledge of system level reliability is not only a challenging scientific ex

  10. Principles of Bridge Reliability

    Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Nowak, Andrzej S.

    The paper gives a brief introduction to the basic principles of structural reliability theory and its application to bridge engineering. Fundamental concepts like failure probability and reliability index are introduced. Ultimate as well as serviceability limit states for bridges are formulated...

  11. Improving machinery reliability

    Bloch, Heinz P


    This totally revised, updated and expanded edition provides proven techniques and procedures that extend machinery life, reduce maintenance costs, and achieve optimum machinery reliability. This essential text clearly describes the reliability improvement and failure avoidance steps practiced by best-of-class process plants in the U.S. and Europe.

  12. Hawaii Electric System Reliability

    Loose, Verne William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers’ views of reliability “worth” and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers’ views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

  13. Hawaii electric system reliability.

    Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto; Loose, Verne William


    This report addresses Hawaii electric system reliability issues; greater emphasis is placed on short-term reliability but resource adequacy is reviewed in reference to electric consumers' views of reliability %E2%80%9Cworth%E2%80%9D and the reserve capacity required to deliver that value. The report begins with a description of the Hawaii electric system to the extent permitted by publicly available data. Electrical engineering literature in the area of electric reliability is researched and briefly reviewed. North American Electric Reliability Corporation standards and measures for generation and transmission are reviewed and identified as to their appropriateness for various portions of the electric grid and for application in Hawaii. Analysis of frequency data supplied by the State of Hawaii Public Utilities Commission is presented together with comparison and contrast of performance of each of the systems for two years, 2010 and 2011. Literature tracing the development of reliability economics is reviewed and referenced. A method is explained for integrating system cost with outage cost to determine the optimal resource adequacy given customers' views of the value contributed by reliable electric supply. The report concludes with findings and recommendations for reliability in the State of Hawaii.

  14. Chapter 9: Reliability

    Algora, Carlos; Espinet-Gonzalez, Pilar; Vazquez, Manuel; Bosco, Nick; Miller, David; Kurtz, Sarah; Rubio, Francisca; McConnell,Robert


    This chapter describes the accumulated knowledge on CPV reliability with its fundamentals and qualification. It explains the reliability of solar cells, modules (including optics) and plants. The chapter discusses the statistical distributions, namely exponential, normal and Weibull. The reliability of solar cells includes: namely the issues in accelerated aging tests in CPV solar cells, types of failure and failures in real time operation. The chapter explores the accelerated life tests, namely qualitative life tests (mainly HALT) and quantitative accelerated life tests (QALT). It examines other well proven and experienced PV cells and/or semiconductor devices, which share similar semiconductor materials, manufacturing techniques or operating conditions, namely, III-V space solar cells and light emitting diodes (LEDs). It addresses each of the identified reliability issues and presents the current state of the art knowledge for their testing and evaluation. Finally, the chapter summarizes the CPV qualification and reliability standards.

  15. Prognostic DNA Methylation Markers for Prostate Cancer

    Siri H. Strand


    Full Text Available Prostate cancer (PC is the most commonly diagnosed neoplasm and the third most common cause of cancer-related death amongst men in the Western world. PC is a clinically highly heterogeneous disease, and distinction between aggressive and indolent disease is a major challenge for the management of PC. Currently, no biomarkers or prognostic tools are able to accurately predict tumor progression at the time of diagnosis. Thus, improved biomarkers for PC prognosis are urgently needed. This review focuses on the prognostic potential of DNA methylation biomarkers for PC. Epigenetic changes are hallmarks of PC and associated with malignant initiation as well as tumor progression. Moreover, DNA methylation is the most frequently studied epigenetic alteration in PC, and the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers for PC has been demonstrated in multiple studies. The most promising methylation marker candidates identified so far include PITX2, C1orf114 (CCDC181 and the GABRE~miR-452~miR-224 locus, in addition to the three-gene signature AOX1/C1orf114/HAPLN3. Several other biomarker candidates have also been investigated, but with less stringent clinical validation and/or conflicting evidence regarding their possible prognostic value available at this time. Here, we review the current evidence for the prognostic potential of DNA methylation markers in PC.

  16. Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks

    Wolbers, Marcel; Blanche, Paul; Koller, Michael T


    The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate i...... of the working model. We further illustrate the methods by computing the concordance probability for a prognostic model of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in the presence of the competing risk of non-CHD death.......The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate...... it to recently proposed time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve measures. For right-censored data, we investigate inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) estimates of a truncated concordance index based on a working model for the censoring distribution. We demonstrate...

  17. Bioinformatics analysis to screen the key prognostic genes in ovarian cancer.

    Li, Li; Cai, Shengyun; Liu, Shengnan; Feng, Hao; Zhang, Junjie


    Ovarian cancer (OC) is a gynecological oncology that has a poor prognosis and high mortality. This study is conducted to identify the key genes implicated in the prognosis of OC by bioinformatic analysis. Gene expression data (including 568 primary OC tissues, 17 recurrent OC tissues, and 8 adjacent normal tissues) and the relevant clinical information of OC patients were downloaded from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. After data preprocessing, cluster analysis was conducted using the ConsensusClusterPlus package in R. Using the limma package in R, differential analysis was performed to identify feature genes. Based on Kaplan-Meier (KM) survival analysis, prognostic seed genes were selected from the feature genes. After key prognostic genes were further screened by cluster analysis and KM survival analysis, they were performed functional enrichment analysis and multivariate survival analysis. Using the survival package in R, cox regression analysis was conducted for the microarray data of GSE17260 to validate the key prognostic genes. A total of 3668 feature genes were obtained, among which 75 genes were identified as prognostic seed genes. Then, 25 key prognostic genes were screened, including AXL, FOS, KLF6, WDR77, DUSP1, GADD45B, and SLIT3. Especially, AXL and SLIT3 were enriched in ovulation cycle. Multivariate survival analysis showed that the key prognostic genes could effectively differentiate the samples and were significantly associated with prognosis. Additionally, GSE17260 confirmed that the key prognostic genes were associated with the prognosis of OC. AXL, FOS, KLF6, WDR77, DUSP1, GADD45B, and SLIT3 might affect the prognosis of OC.

  18. Building prognostic models for breast cancer patients using clinical variables and hundreds of gene expression signatures

    Liu Yufeng


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple breast cancer gene expression profiles have been developed that appear to provide similar abilities to predict outcome and may outperform clinical-pathologic criteria; however, the extent to which seemingly disparate profiles provide additive prognostic information is not known, nor do we know whether prognostic profiles perform equally across clinically defined breast cancer subtypes. We evaluated whether combining the prognostic powers of standard breast cancer clinical variables with a large set of gene expression signatures could improve on our ability to predict patient outcomes. Methods Using clinical-pathological variables and a collection of 323 gene expression "modules", including 115 previously published signatures, we build multivariate Cox proportional hazards models using a dataset of 550 node-negative systemically untreated breast cancer patients. Models predictive of pathological complete response (pCR to neoadjuvant chemotherapy were also built using this approach. Results We identified statistically significant prognostic models for relapse-free survival (RFS at 7 years for the entire population, and for the subgroups of patients with ER-positive, or Luminal tumors. Furthermore, we found that combined models that included both clinical and genomic parameters improved prognostication compared with models with either clinical or genomic variables alone. Finally, we were able to build statistically significant combined models for pathological complete response (pCR predictions for the entire population. Conclusions Integration of gene expression signatures and clinical-pathological factors is an improved method over either variable type alone. Highly prognostic models could be created when using all patients, and for the subset of patients with lymph node-negative and ER-positive breast cancers. Other variables beyond gene expression and clinical-pathological variables, like gene mutation status or DNA

  19. Genome-wide gene expression profile analyses identify CTTN as a potential prognostic marker in esophageal cancer.

    Pei Lu

    Full Text Available AIM: Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC is one of the most common fatal malignances of the digestive tract. Its prognosis is poor mainly due to the lack of reliable markers for early detection and prognostic prediction. Here we aim to identify the molecules involved in ESCC carcinogenesis and those as potential markers for prognosis and as new molecular therapeutic targets. METHODS: We performed genome-wide gene expression profile analyses of 10 primary ESCCs and their adjacent normal tissues by cDNA microarrays representing 47,000 transcripts and variants. Candidate genes were then validated by semi quantitative reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR, tissue microarrays (TMAs and immunohistochemistry (IHC staining. RESULTS: Using an arbitrary cutoff line of signal log ratio of ≥1.5 or ≤-1.5, we observed 549 up-regulated genes and 766 down-regulated genes in ESCCs compared with normal esophageal tissues. The functions of 302 differentially expressed genes were associated with cell metabolism, cell adhesion and immune response. Several candidate deregulated genes including four overexpressed (CTTN, DMRT2, MCM10 and SCYA26 and two underexpressed (HMGCS2 and SORBS2 were subsequently verified, which can be served as biomarkers for ESCC. Moreover, overexpression of cortactin (CTTN was observed in 126/198 (63.6% of ESCC cases and was significantly associated with lymph node metastasis (P = 0.000, pathologic stage (P = 0.000 and poor survival (P<0.001 of ESCC patients. Furthermore, a significant correlation between CTTN overexpression and shorter disease-specific survival rate was found in different subgroups of ESCC patient stratified by the pathologic stage (P<0.05. CONCLUSION: Our data provide valuable information for establishing molecules as candidates for prognostic and/or as therapeutic targets.

  20. Qualitative and Quantitative Requirements for Assessing Prognostic Markers in Prostate Cancer

    Christoph Burdelski


    Full Text Available Molecular prognostic markers are urgently needed in order to improve therapy decisions in prostate cancer. To better understand the requirements for biomarker studies, we re-analyzed prostate cancer tissue microarray immunohistochemistry (IHC data from 39 prognosis markers in subsets of 50 – >10,000 tumors. We found a strong association between the “prognostic power” of individual markers and the number of tissues that should be minimally included in such studies. The prognostic relevance of more than 90% of the 39 IHC markers could be detected if ≥6400 tissue samples were analyzed. Studying markers of tissue quality, including immunohistochemistry of ets-related gene (ERG and vimentin, and fluorescence in-situ hybridization analysis of human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2, we found that 18% of tissues in our tissue microarray (TMA showed signs of reduced tissue preservation and limited immunoreactivity. Comparing the results of Kaplan-Meier survival analyses or associations to ERG immunohistochemistry in subsets of tumors with and without exclusion of these defective tissues did not reveal statistically relevant differences. In summary, our study demonstrates that TMA-based marker validation studies using biochemical recurrence as an endpoint require at least 6400 individual tissue samples for establishing statistically relevant associations between the expression of molecular markers and patient outcome if weak to moderate prognosticators should also be reliably identified.

  1. Tumor budding is an independent adverse prognostic factor in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

    O'Connor, Kate; Li-Chang, Hector H; Kalloger, Steven E; Peixoto, Renata D; Webber, Douglas L; Owen, David A; Driman, David K; Kirsch, Richard; Serra, Stefano; Scudamore, Charles H; Renouf, Daniel J; Schaeffer, David F


    Tumor budding is a well-established adverse prognostic factor in colorectal cancer. However, the significance and diagnostic reproducibility of budding in pancreatic carcinoma requires further study. We aimed to assess the prognostic significance of tumor budding in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, determine its relationship with other clinicopathologic features, and assess interobserver variability in its diagnosis. Tumor budding was assessed in 192 archival cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma using hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) sections; tumor buds were defined as single cells or nonglandular clusters composed of <5 cells. The presence of budding was determined through assessment of all tumor-containing slides, and associations with clinicopathologic features and outcomes were analyzed. Six gastrointestinal pathologists participated in an interobserver variability study of 120 images of consecutive tumor slides stained with H&E and cytokeratin. Budding was present in 168 of 192 cases and was associated with decreased overall survival (P=0.001). On multivariable analysis, tumor budding was prognostically significantly independent of stage, grade, tumor size, nodal status, lymphovascular invasion, and perineural invasion. There was substantial agreement among pathologists in assessing the presence of tumor budding using both H&E (K=0.63) and cytokeratin (K=0.63) stains. The presence of tumor budding is an independent adverse prognostic factor in pancreatic ductal carcinoma. The assessment of budding with H&E is reliable and could be used to better risk stratify patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

  2. FDG-PET parameters as prognostic factor in esophageal cancer patients: A review

    J.M. Omloo (Jikke); M. van Heijl (Mark); O.S. Hoekstra (Otto); M.I. van Berge Henegouwen (Mark); J.J.B. van Lanschot (Jan); G.W. Sloof (Gerrit)


    textabstractBackground:18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has been used extensively to explore whether FDG Uptake can be used to provide prognostic information for esophageal cancer patients. The aim of the present review is to evaluate the literature available to date con

  3. Diagnostic and prognostic implications of exercise testing in coronary artery disease

    J.W. Deckers (Jaap)


    textabstractThe clinical indications for exercise testing as a diagnostic and prognostic tool in the assessment of patients with ischemic heart disease have gradually evolved since Master introduced the two-step exercise test in 1929 (1). New information from correlations between electrocardiographi

  4. FDG-PET parameters as prognostic factor in esophageal cancer patients: a review

    J.M.T. Omloo; M. van Heijl; O.S. Hoekstra; M.I. van Berge Henegouwen; J.J.B. van Lanschot; G.W. Sloof


    (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) has been used extensively to explore whether FDG Uptake can be used to provide prognostic information for esophageal cancer patients. The aim of the present review is to evaluate the literature available to date concerning the potential

  5. Interleukin-6 and C-reactive protein as prognostic biomarkers in metastatic colorectal cancer

    Thomsen, Maria; Kersten, Christian; Sorbye, Halfdan


    OBJECTIVES: The aim was to explore the prognostic significance of IL-6 and markers of systemic inflammatory response (SIR), in particular C-reactive protein (CRP), in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients, in the total study population and according to RAS and BRAF mutation status. RESULTS...... 24.3 months to 12.3 months, (P BRAF mutation (interaction P = 0.004). MATERIALS AND METHODS: IL-6 and CRP were determined in pre-treatment serum samples...... with impaired prognosis in mCRC. IL-6 and CRP give independent prognostic information in addition to RAS and BRAF mutation status....

  6. Testing the prognostic accuracy of the updated pediatric sepsis biomarker risk model.

    Hector R Wong

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We previously derived and validated a risk model to estimate mortality probability in children with septic shock (PERSEVERE; PEdiatRic SEpsis biomarkEr Risk modEl. PERSEVERE uses five biomarkers and age to estimate mortality probability. After the initial derivation and validation of PERSEVERE, we combined the derivation and validation cohorts (n = 355 and updated PERSEVERE. An important step in the development of updated risk models is to test their accuracy using an independent test cohort. OBJECTIVE: To test the prognostic accuracy of the updated version PERSEVERE in an independent test cohort. METHODS: Study subjects were recruited from multiple pediatric intensive care units in the United States. Biomarkers were measured in 182 pediatric subjects with septic shock using serum samples obtained during the first 24 hours of presentation. The accuracy of PERSEVERE 28-day mortality risk estimate was tested using diagnostic test statistics, and the net reclassification improvement (NRI was used to test whether PERSEVERE adds information to a physiology-based scoring system. RESULTS: Mortality in the test cohort was 13.2%. Using a risk cut-off of 2.5%, the sensitivity of PERSEVERE for mortality was 83% (95% CI 62-95, specificity was 75% (68-82, positive predictive value was 34% (22-47, and negative predictive value was 97% (91-99. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.81 (0.70-0.92. The false positive subjects had a greater degree of organ failure burden and longer intensive care unit length of stay, compared to the true negative subjects. When adding PERSEVERE to a physiology-based scoring system, the net reclassification improvement was 0.91 (0.47-1.35; p<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: The updated version of PERSEVERE estimates mortality probability reliably in a heterogeneous test cohort of children with septic shock and provides information over and above a physiology-based scoring system.

  7. Photovoltaic system reliability

    Maish, A.B.; Atcitty, C. [Sandia National Labs., NM (United States); Greenberg, D. [Ascension Technology, Inc., Lincoln Center, MA (United States)] [and others


    This paper discusses the reliability of several photovoltaic projects including SMUD`s PV Pioneer project, various projects monitored by Ascension Technology, and the Colorado Parks project. System times-to-failure range from 1 to 16 years, and maintenance costs range from 1 to 16 cents per kilowatt-hour. Factors contributing to the reliability of these systems are discussed, and practices are recommended that can be applied to future projects. This paper also discusses the methodology used to collect and analyze PV system reliability data.

  8. Structural Reliability Methods

    Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Madsen, H. O.

    of structural reliability, including the theoretical basis for these methods. Partial safety factor codes under current practice are briefly introduced and discussed. A probabilistic code format for obtaining a formal reliability evaluation system that catches the most essential features of the nature......The structural reliability methods quantitatively treat the uncertainty of predicting the behaviour and properties of a structure given the uncertain properties of its geometry, materials, and the actions it is supposed to withstand. This book addresses the probabilistic methods for evaluation...

  9. The Chromatin Pattern of Cell Nuclei Is of Prognostic Value for Renal Cell Carcinomas

    Christine François


    Full Text Available Using a series of 105 renal cell carcinomas (RCCs we investigated whether features quantitatively describing the appearance of Feulgen‐stained nuclei and, more particularly, of their chromatin (on the basis of computer‐assisted microscopy can contribute any significant prognostic information. Thirty morphonuclear and 8 nuclear DNA content‐related variables were thus generated. The actual prognostic values of this set of cytometric variables was compared (by means of discriminant statistical analysis to conventional diagnostic and/or prognostic markers including histopathological grades, tumour invasion levels and the presence or absence of metastases. We obtained complete clinical follow‐ups for 49 of the 105 RCC patients under study, making it possible to define a subset of patients with a bad prognosis (i.e., who died in the 12 months following nephrectomy and a subset of patients with a good prognosis (i.e., who survived at least 24 months following nephrectomy. An original method of data analysis related to artificial intelligence (decision tree induction enabled a strong prognostic model to be set up. In the case of 10 new patients, this model identified all the dead patients as having a bad survival status, with a total of 8 correct predictions. Another prognostic model similarly generated enabled the correct predictions to be confirmed.

  10. Multivariate meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies with multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement.

    Riley, Richard D; Elia, Eleni G; Malin, Gemma; Hemming, Karla; Price, Malcolm P


    A prognostic factor is any measure that is associated with the risk of future health outcomes in those with existing disease. Often, the prognostic ability of a factor is evaluated in multiple studies. However, meta-analysis is difficult because primary studies often use different methods of measurement and/or different cut-points to dichotomise continuous factors into 'high' and 'low' groups; selective reporting is also common. We illustrate how multivariate random effects meta-analysis models can accommodate multiple prognostic effect estimates from the same study, relating to multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement. The models account for within-study and between-study correlations, which utilises more information and reduces the impact of unreported cut-points and/or measurement methods in some studies. The applicability of the approach is improved with individual participant data and by assuming a functional relationship between prognostic effect and cut-point to reduce the number of unknown parameters. The models provide important inferential results for each cut-point and method of measurement, including the summary prognostic effect, the between-study variance and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in new populations. Two applications are presented. The first reveals that, in a multivariate meta-analysis using published results, the Apgar score is prognostic of neonatal mortality but effect sizes are smaller at most cut-points than previously thought. In the second, a multivariate meta-analysis of two methods of measurement provides weak evidence that microvessel density is prognostic of mortality in lung cancer, even when individual participant data are available so that a continuous prognostic trend is examined (rather than cut-points). © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Gene expression classification of colon cancer into molecular subtypes: characterization, validation, and prognostic value.

    Laetitia Marisa

    -free survival, even after adjusting for age, sex, stage, and the emerging prognostic classifier Oncotype DX Colon Cancer Assay recurrence score (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% CI 1.1-2.1, p = 0.0097. However, a limitation of this study is that information on tumor grade and number of nodes examined was not available. CONCLUSIONS: We describe the first, to our knowledge, robust transcriptome-based classification of CC that improves the current disease stratification based on clinicopathological variables and common DNA markers. The biological relevance of these subtypes is illustrated by significant differences in prognosis. This analysis provides possibilities for improving prognostic models and therapeutic strategies. In conclusion, we report a new classification of CC into six molecular subtypes that arise through distinct biological pathways.


    B. M. Ahmed


    Conclusions. CD56 antigenic expression in AML cases represents an adverse prognostic factor. It should be regularly investigated in cases of AML for better prognostic stratification and assessment. KEY WORDS: CD56; leukemia, myeloid; prognosis

  13. Prognostics-Enabled Power Supply for ADAPT Testbed Project

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Ridgetop's role is to develop electronic prognostics for sensing power systems in support of NASA/Ames ADAPT testbed. The prognostic enabled power systems from...

  14. Distributed Prognostics System Implementation on Wireless Embedded Devices

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Distributed prognostics is the next step in the evolution of prognostic methodologies. It is an important enabling technology for the emerging Condition Based...

  15. A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  16. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  17. Communication Optimizations for a Wireless Distributed Prognostic Framework

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Distributed architecture for prognostics is an essential step in prognostic research in order to enable feasible real-time system health management. Communication...

  18. Reliable Electronic Equipment

    N. A. Nayak


    Full Text Available The reliability aspect of electronic equipment's is discussed. To obtain optimum results, close cooperation between the components engineer, the design engineer and the production engineer is suggested.

  19. Reliability prediction techniques

    Whittaker, B.; Worthington, B.; Lord, J.F.; Pinkard, D.


    The paper demonstrates the feasibility of applying reliability assessment techniques to mining equipment. A number of techniques are identified and described and examples of their use in assessing mining equipment are given. These techniques include: reliability prediction; failure analysis; design audit; maintainability; availability and the life cycle costing. Specific conclusions regarding the usefulness of each technique are outlined. The choice of techniques depends upon both the type of equipment being assessed and its stage of development, with numerical prediction best suited for electronic equipment and fault analysis and design audit suited to mechanical equipment. Reliability assessments involve much detailed and time consuming work but it has been demonstrated that the resulting reliability improvements lead to savings in service costs which more than offset the cost of the evaluation.

  20. Evaluation of Minichromosome Maintenance Protein 7 and c-KIT as Prognostic Markers in Feline Cutaneous Mast Cell Tumours.

    Dobromylskyj, M J; Rasotto, R; Melville, K; Smith, K C; Berlato, D


    Mast cell tumours (MCTs) are a common skin tumour in cats, but there is currently no histological grading system or reliable prognostic marker for this species (unlike the situation for dogs). This study utilized a set of 71 feline cutaneous MCTs with known clinical outcomes to assess the potential of various prognostic markers, including the cellular proliferation marker minichromosome maintenance protein (MCM)-7, mitotic index and various KIT labelling characteristics, including KIT positivity, KIT labelling pattern and KIT immunoreactivity score (IS). Of the factors studied, the mitotic index and the KIT labelling pattern were the only features associated significantly with survival times, while the proliferation marker MCM7 and the KIT IS were not. The study also highlights the variability of KIT labelling characteristics between tumours, which may prevent use of this marker as a diagnostic and prognostic tool.

  1. The rating reliability calculator

    Solomon David J


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rating scales form an important means of gathering evaluation data. Since important decisions are often based on these evaluations, determining the reliability of rating data can be critical. Most commonly used methods of estimating reliability require a complete set of ratings i.e. every subject being rated must be rated by each judge. Over fifty years ago Ebel described an algorithm for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data. While his article has been widely cited over the years, software based on the algorithm is not readily available. This paper describes an easy-to-use Web-based utility for estimating the reliability of ratings based on incomplete data using Ebel's algorithm. Methods The program is available public use on our server and the source code is freely available under GNU General Public License. The utility is written in PHP, a common open source imbedded scripting language. The rating data can be entered in a convenient format on the user's personal computer that the program will upload to the server for calculating the reliability and other statistics describing the ratings. Results When the program is run it displays the reliability, number of subject rated, harmonic mean number of judges rating each subject, the mean and standard deviation of the averaged ratings per subject. The program also displays the mean, standard deviation and number of ratings for each subject rated. Additionally the program will estimate the reliability of an average of a number of ratings for each subject via the Spearman-Brown prophecy formula. Conclusion This simple web-based program provides a convenient means of estimating the reliability of rating data without the need to conduct special studies in order to provide complete rating data. I would welcome other researchers revising and enhancing the program.

  2. Reliability of power connections

    BRAUNOVIC Milenko


    Despite the use of various preventive maintenance measures, there are still a number of problem areas that can adversely affect system reliability. Also, economical constraints have pushed the designs of power connections closer to the limits allowed by the existing standards. The major parameters influencing the reliability and life of Al-Al and Al-Cu connections are identified. The effectiveness of various palliative measures is determined and the misconceptions about their effectiveness are dealt in detail.

  3. Proposal of resolution to create an inquiry commission on the french nuclear power plants reliability in case or earthquakes and on the safety, information and warning procedures in case of incidents; Proposition de resolution tendant a creer une commission d'enquete sur la fiabilite des centrales nucleaires en France en cas de seisme et sur les procedures de securisation, d'information et d'alerte en cas d'incident



    This short paper presents the reasons of the creation of parliamentary inquiry commission of 30 members, on the reliability of the nuclear power plants in France in case of earthquakes and on the safety, information and warning procedures in case of accidents. (A.L.B.)

  4. A new prognostic histopathologic classiifcation ofnasopharyngeal carcinoma

    Hai-YunWang; Shie-LeeCheah; MingLee; LiGao; Hui-ZhongZhang; Jie-HuaHe; HaoJiang; Pei-QingMa; Xiao-DongZhu; LiangZeng; Chun-YanChen; Yih-LeongChang; GangChen; Ma-YanHuang; ShaFu; QiongShao; An-JiaHan; Hai-GangLi; Chun-KuiShao; Pei-YuHuang; Chao-NanQian; Tai-XiangLu; Ka-FaiTo; Jin-TianLi; WeiminYe; IngemarErnberg; HoKeungNg; JosephT.S.Wee; Yi-XinZeng; Hans-OlovAdami; AnthonyT.C.Chan1; Jian-YongShao; JacquelineS.G.Hwang; Hai-QiangMai; Yan-FenFeng; EllenT.Chang; Chen-PingWang; MichaelKoonMingKam


    Background:The current World Health Organization (WHO) classiifcation of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) con‑veys little prognostic information. This study aimed to propose an NPC histopathologic classiifcation that can poten‑tially be used to predict prognosis and treatment response. Methods:We initially developed a histopathologic classiifcation based on the morphologic traits and cell differentia‑tion of tumors of 2716 NPC patients who were identiifed at Sun Yat‑sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) (training cohort). Then, the proposed classiifcation was applied to 1702 patients (retrospective validation cohort) from hospitals outside SYSUCC and 1613 patients (prospective validation cohort) from SYSUCC. The effcacy of radiochemotherapy and radiotherapy modalities was compared between the proposed subtypes. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% conifdence intervals (CI) for overall survival (OS). Results:The 5‑year OS rates for all NPC patients who were diagnosed with epithelial carcinoma (EC; 3708 patients), mixed sarcomatoid‑epithelial carcinoma (MSEC; 1247 patients), sarcomatoid carcinoma (SC; 823 patients), and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC; 253 patients) were 79.4%, 70.5%, 59.6%, and 42.6%, respectively (P<0.001). In mul‑tivariate models, patients with MSEC had a shorter OS than patients with EC (HR=1.44, 95% CI=1.27–1.62), SC (HR=2.00, 95% CI=1.76–2.28), or SCC (HR=4.23, 95% CI=3.34–5.38). Radiochemotherapy signiifcantly improved survival compared with radiotherapy alone for patients with EC (HR=0.67, 95% CI=0.56–0.80), MSEC (HR=0.58, 95% CI=0.49–0.75), and possibly for those with SCC (HR=0.63; 95% CI=0.40–0.98), but not for patients with SC (HR=0.97, 95% CI=0.74–1.28). Conclusions:The proposed classiifcation offers more information for the prediction of NPC prognosis compared with the WHO classiifcation and might be a valuable tool to guide treatment decisions for subtypes that are

  5. Multidisciplinary System Reliability Analysis

    Mahadevan, Sankaran; Han, Song; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)


    The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology for estimating the reliability of engineering systems that encompass multiple disciplines. The methodology is formulated in the context of the NESSUS probabilistic structural analysis code, developed under the leadership of NASA Glenn Research Center. The NESSUS code has been successfully applied to the reliability estimation of a variety of structural engineering systems. This study examines whether the features of NESSUS could be used to investigate the reliability of systems in other disciplines such as heat transfer, fluid mechanics, electrical circuits etc., without considerable programming effort specific to each discipline. In this study, the mechanical equivalence between system behavior models in different disciplines are investigated to achieve this objective. A new methodology is presented for the analysis of heat transfer, fluid flow, and electrical circuit problems using the structural analysis routines within NESSUS, by utilizing the equivalence between the computational quantities in different disciplines. This technique is integrated with the fast probability integration and system reliability techniques within the NESSUS code, to successfully compute the system reliability of multidisciplinary systems. Traditional as well as progressive failure analysis methods for system reliability estimation are demonstrated, through a numerical example of a heat exchanger system involving failure modes in structural, heat transfer and fluid flow disciplines.

  6. Sensitivity Analysis of Component Reliability



    In a system, Every component has its unique position within system and its unique failure characteristics. When a component's reliability is changed, its effect on system reliability is not equal. Component reliability sensitivity is a measure of effect on system reliability while a component's reliability is changed. In this paper, the definition and relative matrix of component reliability sensitivity is proposed, and some of their characteristics are analyzed. All these will help us to analyse or improve the system reliability.

  7. Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS 2: prognostic factor research.

    Richard D Riley

    Full Text Available Prognostic factor research aims to identify factors associated with subsequent clinical outcome in people with a particular disease or health condition. In this article, the second in the PROGRESS series, the authors discuss the role of prognostic factors in current clinical practice, randomised trials, and developing new interventions, and explain why and how prognostic factor research should be improved.

  8. MOV reliability evaluation and periodic verification scheduling

    Bunte, B.D.


    The purpose of this paper is to establish a periodic verification testing schedule based on the expected long term reliability of gate or globe motor operated valves (MOVs). The methodology in this position paper determines the nominal (best estimate) design margin for any MOV based on the best available information pertaining to the MOVs design requirements, design parameters, existing hardware design, and present setup. The uncertainty in this margin is then determined using statistical means. By comparing the nominal margin to the uncertainty, the reliability of the MOV is estimated. The methodology is appropriate for evaluating the reliability of MOVs in the GL 89-10 program. It may be used following periodic testing to evaluate and trend MOV performance and reliability. It may also be used to evaluate the impact of proposed modifications and maintenance activities such as packing adjustments. In addition, it may be used to assess the impact of new information of a generic nature which impacts safety related MOVs.

  9. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation using prognostic tools and regression analysis.

    Ghinea, Cristina; Drăgoi, Elena Niculina; Comăniţă, Elena-Diana; Gavrilescu, Marius; Câmpean, Teofil; Curteanu, Silvia; Gavrilescu, Maria


    For an adequate planning of waste management systems the accurate forecast of waste generation is an essential step, since various factors can affect waste trends. The application of predictive and prognosis models are useful tools, as reliable support for decision making processes. In this paper some indicators such as: number of residents, population age, urban life expectancy, total municipal solid waste were used as input variables in prognostic models in order to predict the amount of solid waste fractions. We applied Waste Prognostic Tool, regression analysis and time series analysis to forecast municipal solid waste generation and composition by considering the Iasi Romania case study. Regression equations were determined for six solid waste fractions (paper, plastic, metal, glass, biodegradable and other waste). Accuracy Measures were calculated and the results showed that S-curve trend model is the most suitable for municipal solid waste (MSW) prediction.

  10. Stress testing on silicon carbide electronic devices for prognostics and health management.

    Kaplar, Robert James; Brock, Reinhard C.; Marinella, Matthew; King, Michael Patrick; Smith, Mark A.; Atcitty, Stanley


    Power conversion systems for energy storage and other distributed energy resource applications are among the drivers of the important role that power electronics plays in providing reliable electricity. Wide band gap semiconductors such as silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) will help increase the performance and efficiency of power electronic equipment while condition monitoring (CM) and prognostics and health management (PHM) will increase the operational availability of the equipment and thereby make it more cost effective. Voltage and/or temperature stress testing were performed on a number of SiC devices in order to accelerate failure modes and to identify measureable shifts in electrical characteristics which may provide early indication of those failures. Those shifts can be interpreted and modeled to provide prognostic signatures for use in CM and/or PHM. Such experiments will also lead to a deeper understanding of basic device physics and the degradation mechanisms behind failure.

  11. Prognostic factors for neckpain in general practice.

    Hoving, J.L.; Vet, H.C.W. de; Twisk, J.W.R.; Devillé, W.L.J.M.; Windt, D. van der; Koes, B.W.; Bouter, L.M.


    Prognostic studies on neck pain are scarce and are typically restricted to short-term follow-up only. In this prospective cohort study, indicators of short- and long-term outcomes of neck pain were identified that can easily be measured in general practice. Patients between 18 and 70 years of age, s

  12. Prognostic factors in Guillain-Barre syndrome

    Semra Mungan


    Full Text Available Objective: Guillain–Barre syndrome (GBS is an immune-mediated disorder of peripheral nerves resulting as acute inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy. GBS has a heterogeneous clinical course and laboratory findings. Acute onset and progressive course, and is usually associated with a good prognosis but some forms have a poor prognosis. Factors that can affect the prognosis of GBS have been investigated in several studies. Assessment of poor prognostic factors of GBS plays a vital role in the management and monitorization of patients. Methods: In this retrospective study of patients admitted to the acute phase of GBS removing clinical and laboratory profiles and was planned to investigate the prognostic factors. Results: Totally 23 patients (Female/male: 16/7 were recruited. Mean age was 47 (range: 17-70 years. Statistically significant poor prognostic factors were advanced age (p=0.042, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (p=0.027 and serum albumin level (p=0.007. Conclusion: Advanced age, increased ESR and decreased albumin levels were found as poor prognostic factors in GBS.

  13. The biology of melanoma prognostic factors.

    Spatz, A.; Stock, N.; Batist, G.; Kempen, L.C.L.T. van


    Cutaneous melanoma still represents a paradox among all solid tumors. It is the cancer for which the best prognostic markers ever identified in solid tumors are available, yet there is very little understanding of their biological significance. This review focuses on recent biological data that shed

  14. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2014: February 25-26, 2014

    Kurtz, S.


    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  15. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2010: February 18-19, 2010

    Kurtz, J.


    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  16. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2012: February 28 - March 1, 2012

    Kurtz, S.


    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  17. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2011: February 16-17, 2011

    Kurtz, S.


    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  18. Photovoltaic Module Reliability Workshop 2013: February 26-27, 2013

    Kurtz, S.


    NREL's Photovoltaic (PV) Module Reliability Workshop (PVMRW) brings together PV reliability experts to share information, leading to the improvement of PV module reliability. Such improvement reduces the cost of solar electricity and promotes investor confidence in the technology--both critical goals for moving PV technologies deeper into the electricity marketplace.

  19. Prognostics Methodology for Complex Systems

    Gulati, Sandeep; Mackey, Ryan


    An automatic method to schedule maintenance and repair of complex systems is produced based on a computational structure called the Informed Maintenance Grid (IMG). This method provides solutions to the two fundamental problems in autonomic logistics: (1) unambiguous detection of deterioration or impending loss of function and (2) determination of the time remaining to perform maintenance or other corrective action based upon information from the system. The IMG provides a health determination over the medium-to-longterm operation of the system, from one or more days to years of study. The IMG is especially applicable to spacecraft and both piloted and autonomous aircraft, or industrial control processes.

  20. Re-evaluation of Mannheim prognostic index in perforative peritonitis: prognostic role of advanced age. A prospective cohort study.

    Neri, Alessandro; Marrelli, Daniele; Scheiterle, Maximilian; Di Mare, Giulio; Sforza, Simone; Roviello, Franco


    Peritonitis from perforation of abdominal viscera is associated with high mortality. In western countries individuals older than 65 years constitute a significant proportion of the population and intra abdominal infections are more challenging to manage in these aged patients. This prospective cohort study included 143 consecutive patients operated on for primary perforative peritonitis. The aim of the study was to assess the prognostic efficacy of Mannheim Peritonitis Index (MPI) in a population with a significant proportion of older patients and to substantiate advanced age as an independent prognostic factor. Patients' informations were collected both on hospitalization and after surgical exploration; severity of peritonitis was evaluated using the MPI. The prognostic value of MPI was compared to older age and other clinical variables. The intra-hospital mortality was 25.2%. According to the MPI score, the ROC curve identified 21 as cut-off value with a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 59% in predicting the risk of death. MPI score and age over 80 years old resulted independent predictors of mortality at multivariate analysis. In the subgroup of patients with MPI score≥21, the mortality rate was 46.4% for patients older than 80 years old and 38.3% for younger patients (p=0.07); in patients with MPI score<21, the mortality of those aged more than 80 years reached 33.3% compared to 3.4% for younger patients (p=0.001). Age older than 80 years is strongly related to major increase in mortality rates and should be taken into account together with the MPI score in planning the surgical approach and the post-operative care. Copyright © 2014 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Study on segmented distribution for reliability evaluation

    Huaiyuan Li


    Full Text Available In practice, the failure rate of most equipment exhibits different tendencies at different stages and even its failure rate curve behaves a multimodal trace during its life cycle. As a result, traditionally evaluating the reliability of equipment with a single model may lead to severer errors. However, if lifetime is divided into several different intervals according to the characteristics of its failure rate, piecewise fitting can more accurately approximate the failure rate of equipment. Therefore, in this paper, failure rate is regarded as a piecewise function, and two kinds of segmented distribution are put forward to evaluate reliability. In order to estimate parameters in the segmented reliability function, Bayesian estimation and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE of the segmented distribution are discussed in this paper. Since traditional information criterion is not suitable for the segmented distribution, an improved information criterion is proposed to test and evaluate the segmented reliability model in this paper. After a great deal of testing and verification, the segmented reliability model and its estimation methods presented in this paper are proven more efficient and accurate than the traditional non-segmented single model, especially when the change of the failure rate is time-phased or multimodal. The significant performance of the segmented reliability model in evaluating reliability of proximity sensors of leading-edge flap in civil aircraft indicates that the segmented distribution and its estimation method in this paper could be useful and accurate.

  2. Reliable computer systems design and evaluatuion

    Siewiorek, Daniel


    Enhance your hardware/software reliabilityEnhancement of system reliability has been a major concern of computer users and designers ¦ and this major revision of the 1982 classic meets users' continuing need for practical information on this pressing topic. Included are case studies of reliablesystems from manufacturers such as Tandem, Stratus, IBM, and Digital, as well as coverage of special systems such as the Galileo Orbiter fault protection system and AT&T telephone switching processors.

  3. Computer system reliability safety and usability

    Dhillon, BS


    Computer systems have become an important element of the world economy, with billions of dollars spent each year on development, manufacture, operation, and maintenance. Combining coverage of computer system reliability, safety, usability, and other related topics into a single volume, Computer System Reliability: Safety and Usability eliminates the need to consult many different and diverse sources in the hunt for the information required to design better computer systems.After presenting introductory aspects of computer system reliability such as safety, usability-related facts and figures,

  4. Diagnostic and Prognostic Biomarkers of Adrenal Cortical Carcinoma.

    Mete, Ozgur; Gucer, Hasan; Kefeli, Mehmet; Asa, Sylvia L


    The diagnosis of low-grade adrenal cortical carcinoma (ACC) confined to the adrenal gland can be challenging. Although there are diagnostic and prognostic molecular tests for ACC, they remain largely unutilized. We examined the diagnostic and prognostic value of altered reticulin framework and the immunoprofile of biomarkers including IGF-2, proteins involved in cell proliferation and mitotic spindle regulation (Ki67, p53, BUB1B, HURP, NEK2), DNA damage repair (PBK, γ-H2AX), telomere regulation (DAX, ATRX), wnt-signaling pathway (beta-catenin) and PI3K signaling pathway (PTEN, phospho-mTOR) in a tissue microarray of 50 adenomas and 43 carcinomas that were characterized for angioinvasion as defined by strict criteria, Weiss score, and mitotic rate-based tumor grade. IGF-2 and proteins involved in cell proliferation and mitotic spindle regulation (Ki67, p53, BUB1B, HURP, NEK2), DNA damage proteins (PBK, γ-H2AX), regulators of telomeres (DAXX, ATRX), and beta-catenin revealed characteristic expression profiles enabling the distinction of carcinomas from adenomas. Not all biomarkers were informative in all carcinomas. IGF-2 was the most useful biomarker of malignancy irrespective of tumor grade and cytomorphologic features, as juxtanuclear Golgi-pattern IGF-2 reactivity optimized for high specificity was identified in up to 80% of carcinomas and in no adenomas. Loss rather than qualitative alterations of the reticulin framework yielded statistical difference between carcinoma and adenoma. Angioinvasion defined as tumor cells invading through a vessel wall and intravascular tumor cells admixed with thrombus proved to be the best prognostic parameter, predicting adverse outcome in the entire cohort as well as within low-grade ACCs. Low mitotic tumor grade, Weiss score, global loss of DAXX expression, and high phospho-mTOR expression correlated with disease-free survival, but Weiss score and biomarkers failed to predict adverse outcome in low-grade disease. Our results

  5. Prognostic indicators for failed nonsurgical reduction of intussusception

    Khorana J


    .34, P=0.023. The prediction ability of this model was 82.21% as assessed from the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Conclusion: The identified prognostic factors for the nonsurgical reduction failure may help to predict the reduction outcome and provide information to the parents. Keywords: intussusception, pneumatic reduction, hydrostatic reduction, prognostic indicators, failure rate

  6. Reliability Analysis of Sensor Networks

    JIN Yan; YANG Xiao-zong; WANG Ling


    To Integrate the capacity of sensing, communication, computing, and actuating, one of the compelling technological advances of these years has been the appearance of distributed wireless sensor network (DSN) for information gathering tasks. In order to save the energy, multi-hop routing between the sensor nodes and the sink node is necessary because of limited resource. In addition, the unpredictable conditional factors make the sensor nodes unreliable. In this paper, the reliability of routing designed for sensor network and some dependability issues of DSN, such as MTTF(mean time to failure) and the probability of connectivity between the sensor nodes and the sink node are analyzed.Unfortunately, we could not obtain the accurate result for the arbitrary network topology, which is # P-hard problem.And the reliability analysis of restricted topologies clustering-based is given. The method proposed in this paper will show us a constructive idea about how to place energyconstrained sensor nodes in the network efficiently from the prospective of reliability.

  7. The Biochemical Prognostic Factors of Subclinical Hypothyroidism

    Myung Won Lee


    Full Text Available BackgroundPatients with subclinical hypothyroidism (SHT are common in clinical practice. However, the clinical significance of SHT, including prognosis, has not been established. Further clarifying SHT will be critical in devising a management plan and treatment guidelines for SHT patients. Thus, the aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors of SHT.MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of Korean patients who visited the endocrinology outpatient clinic of Severance Hospital from January 2008 to September 2012. Newly-diagnosed patients with SHT were selected and reviewed retrospectively. We compared two groups: the SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group.ResultsThe SHT maintenance group and the spontaneous improvement group had initial thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH levels that were significantly different (P=0.035. In subanalysis for subjects with TSH levels between 5 to 10 µIU/mL, the spontaneous improvement group showed significantly lower antithyroid peroxidase antibody (anti-TPO-Ab titer than the SHT maintenance group (P=0.039. Regarding lipid profiles, only triglyceride level, unlike total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, was related to TSH level, which is correlated with the severity of SHT. Diffuse thyroiditis on ultrasonography only contributed to the severity of SHT, not to the prognosis. High sensitivity C-reactive protein and urine iodine excretion, generally regarded as possible prognostic factors, did not show any significant relation with the prognosis and severity of SHT.ConclusionOnly initial TSH level was a definite prognostic factor of SHT. TPO-Ab titer was also a helpful prognostic factor for SHT in cases with mildly elevated TSH. Other than TSH and TPO-Ab, we were unable to validate biochemical prognostic factors in this retrospective study for Korean SHT patients.

  8. A prognostic model for soft tissue sarcoma of the extremities and trunk wall based on size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and growth pattern

    Carneiro, Ana; Bendahl, Par-Ola; Engellau, Jacob


    BACKGROUND:: In soft tissue sarcoma, better distinction of high-risk and low-risk patients is needed to individualize treatment and improve survival. Prognostic systems used in clinical practice identify high-risk patients based on various factors, including age, tumor size and depth, histological......), was established and compared with other clinically applied systems. RESULTS:: Size, vascular invasion, necrosis, and peripheral tumor growth pattern provided independent prognostic information with hazard ratios of 2.2-2.6 for development of metastases in multivariate analysis. When these factors were combined...... into the prognostic model SING, high risk of metastasis was predicted with a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 85%. Moreover, the prognostic performance of SING compared favorably with other widely used systems. CONCLUSIONS:: SING represents a promising prognostic model, and vascular invasion and tumor growth...

  9. Long non-coding RNA expression profiles predict metastasis in lymph node-negative breast cancer independently of traditional prognostic markers

    Sørensen, Kristina P; Thomassen, Mads; Tan, Qihua


    of traditional prognostic markers and time to metastasis. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first study investigating the prognostic potential of lncRNA profiles. Our study suggest that lncRNA profiles provide additional prognostic information and may contribute to the identification of early breast...... below 20%, leading to considerable overtreatment, especially in lymph node-negative patients. Seventy percent would be cured by surgery and radiotherapy alone in this group. Thus, precise and early indicators of metastasis are highly desirable to reduce overtreatment. Previous prognostic RNA......-profiling studies have only focused on the protein-coding part of the genome, however the human genome contains thousands of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) and this unexplored field possesses large potential for identification of novel prognostic markers. METHODS: We evaluated lncRNA microarray data from 164...


    Тамаргазін, О. А.; Національний авіаційний університет; Власенко, П. О.; Національний авіаційний університет


    Airline's operational structure for Reliability program implementation — engineering division, reliability  division, reliability control division, aircraft maintenance division, quality assurance division — was considered. Airline's Reliability program structure is shown. Using of Reliability program for reducing costs on aircraft maintenance is proposed. Рассмотрена организационная структура авиакомпании по выполнению Программы надежности - инженерный отдел, отделы по надежности авиацио...

  11. Ultra reliability at NASA

    Shapiro, Andrew A.


    Ultra reliable systems are critical to NASA particularly as consideration is being given to extended lunar missions and manned missions to Mars. NASA has formulated a program designed to improve the reliability of NASA systems. The long term goal for the NASA ultra reliability is to ultimately improve NASA systems by an order of magnitude. The approach outlined in this presentation involves the steps used in developing a strategic plan to achieve the long term objective of ultra reliability. Consideration is given to: complex systems, hardware (including aircraft, aerospace craft and launch vehicles), software, human interactions, long life missions, infrastructure development, and cross cutting technologies. Several NASA-wide workshops have been held, identifying issues for reliability improvement and providing mitigation strategies for these issues. In addition to representation from all of the NASA centers, experts from government (NASA and non-NASA), universities and industry participated. Highlights of a strategic plan, which is being developed using the results from these workshops, will be presented.

  12. Guidelines for Reporting Reliability and Agreement Studies (GRRAS) were proposed

    Kottner, Jan; Audigé, Laurent; Brorson, Stig;


    Results of reliability and agreement studies are intended to provide information about the amount of error inherent in any diagnosis, score, or measurement. The level of reliability and agreement among users of scales, instruments, or classifications is widely unknown. Therefore, there is a need...... for rigorously conducted interrater and intrarater reliability and agreement studies. Information about sample selection, study design, and statistical analysis is often incomplete. Because of inadequate reporting, interpretation and synthesis of study results are often difficult. Widely accepted criteria......, standards, or guidelines for reporting reliability and agreement in the health care and medical field are lacking. The objective was to develop guidelines for reporting reliability and agreement studies....

  13. [Reliability and validity of assessment of educational outcomes obtained by students of Medical Rescue at Medical University of Warsaw].

    Panczyk, Mariusz; Stachacz, Grzegorz; Gałązkowski, Robert; Gotlib, Joanna


    In the interest of preservation of high degree of objectivity of information about students' educational outcomes, a system of assessment needs to meet criteria of appropriate reliability and validity. Analysis of reliability and validity of the system of assessment of students' educational outcomes for courses followed by an examination and covered by a curriculum in Medical Rescue at Medical University of Warsaw (MU W). A retrospective study enrolling a group of 421 students of eight subsequent full education cycles. Detailed data concerning grades for fourteen courses followed by an examination in the entire course of studies were collected. Reliability (Cronbach's alpha coefficient) and criteria validity (Spearman's rank correlation) were assessed. Internal consistency was estimated using a multiple regression model. The levels of assessment reliability for the general university, pre-clinical, and clinical scopes amounted to alpha: 0.42, 0.53, and 0.70, respectively. The strongest positive correlations between the results of pre-clinical and clinical trainings were found for the Anatomy course (r ≈ 0.30). Only in the case of the Pharmacology course it was found that students' achievements in this field were significantly correlated with all other courses of clinical training. The influence of educational outcomes in particular areas of clinical training on the final grade for the entire course of studies was diverse (β regression between 0.04 and 0.11). While the Pharmacology course had the strongest impact on final results, the Surgery course had the least influence on students' final grades (β = 0.04). 1. Sufficient reliability of the system of assessment of educational outcomes in Medical Rescue showed good precision and repeatability of assessment. 2. A low level of validity was caused by a failure to keep the appropriateness of the assessment of educational outcomes in several clinical courses. 3. Prognostic and diagnostic validity of methods used for

  14. Prognostic significance of selected lifestyle factors in urinary bladder cancer.

    Wakai, K; Ohno, Y; Obata, K; Aoki, K


    To examine the prognostic significance of lifestyle factors in urinary bladder cancer, we conducted a follow-up study of 258 incident bladder cancer patients, who were originally recruited in a case-control study in metropolitan Nagoya. Information on individual survivals was obtained from the computer data-file of the tumor registry of the Nagoya Bladder Cancer Research Group. Univariate analyses revealed significant associations of 5-year survivorship with educational attainment, marital status, drinking habits and consumption of green tea in males, and age at first consultation, histological type and grade of tumor, stage and distant metastasis in both sexes. After adjustment for age, stage, histology (histological type and grade) and distant metastasis by means of a proportional hazards model, drinking of alcoholic beverages was significantly associated with the prognosis of bladder cancer in males. Its adjusted hazard ratio was 0.46 (95% confidence interval: 0.26-0.79), favoring patients who had taken alcoholic beverages. In detailed analysis, ex-drinkers and all levels of current drinkers demonstrated hazard ratios smaller than unity, although no clear dose-response relationship was detected. No prognostic significance was found for such lifestyle factors as smoking habit, uses of artificial sweeteners and hairdye, and consumption of coffee, black tea, matcha (powdered green tea) and cola.

  15. Conceptualizing prognostic awareness in advanced cancer: a systematic review.

    Applebaum, Allison J; Kolva, Elissa A; Kulikowski, Julia R; Jacobs, Jordana D; DeRosa, Antonio; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Olden, Megan E; Rosenfeld, Barry; Breitbart, William


    This systematic review synthesizes the complex literature on prognostic awareness in cancer. A total of 37 studies examining cancer patients' understanding of their prognosis were included. Prognostic awareness definitions and assessment methods were inconsistent across studies. A surprisingly high percentage of patients (up to 75%) were unaware of their poor prognosis, and in several studies, even their cancer diagnosis (up to 96%), particularly in studies conducted outside of North America. This review highlights surprisingly low rates of prognostic awareness in patients with advanced cancer as well as discrepancies in prognostic awareness assessment, suggesting the need for empirically validated measures of prognostic awareness.

  16. Reliability Centered Maintenance - Methodologies

    Kammerer, Catherine C.


    Journal article about Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) methodologies used by United Space Alliance, LLC (USA) in support of the Space Shuttle Program at Kennedy Space Center. The USA Reliability Centered Maintenance program differs from traditional RCM programs because various methodologies are utilized to take advantage of their respective strengths for each application. Based on operational experience, USA has customized the traditional RCM methodology into a streamlined lean logic path and has implemented the use of statistical tools to drive the process. USA RCM has integrated many of the L6S tools into both RCM methodologies. The tools utilized in the Measure, Analyze, and Improve phases of a Lean Six Sigma project lend themselves to application in the RCM process. All USA RCM methodologies meet the requirements defined in SAE JA 1011, Evaluation Criteria for Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) Processes. The proposed article explores these methodologies.

  17. System Reliability Analysis: Foundations.


    performance formulas for systems subject to pre- ventive maintenance are given. V * ~, , 9 D -2 SYSTEM RELIABILITY ANALYSIS: FOUNDATIONS Richard E...reliability in this case is V P{s can communicate with the terminal t = h(p) Sp2(((((p p)p) p)p)gp) + p(l -p)(((pL p)p)(p 2 JLp)) + p(l -p)((p(p p...For undirected networks, the basic reference is A. Satyanarayana and Kevin Wood (1982). For directed networks, the basic reference is Avinash

  18. Prognostic Models in Adults Undergoing Physical Therapy for Rotator Cuff Disorders: Systematic Review.

    Braun, Cordula; Hanchard, Nigel C; Batterham, Alan M; Handoll, Helen H; Betthäuser, Andreas


    Rotator cuff-related disorders represent the largest subgroup of shoulder complaints. Despite the availability of various conservative and surgical treatment options, the precise indications for these options remain unclear. The purpose of this systematic review was to synthesize the available research on prognostic models for predicting outcomes in adults undergoing physical therapy for painful rotator cuff disorders. The MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, and PEDro databases and the World Health Organization (WHO) International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) up to October 2015 were searched. The review included primary studies exploring prognostic models in adults undergoing physical therapy, with or without other conservative measures, for painful rotator cuff disorders. Primary outcomes were pain, disability, and adverse events. Inclusion was limited to prospective investigations of prognostic factors elicited at the baseline assessment. Study selection was independently performed by 2 reviewers. A pilot-tested form was used to extract data on key aspects of study design, characteristics, analyses, and results. Risk of bias and applicability were independently assessed by 2 reviewers using the Prediction Study Risk of Bias Assessment tool (PROBAST). Five studies were included in the review. These studies were extremely heterogeneous in many aspects of design, conduct, and analysis. The findings were analyzed narratively. All included studies were rated as at high risk of bias, and none of the resulting prognostic models was found to be usable in clinical practice. There are no prognostic models ready to inform clinical practice in the context of the review question, highlighting the need for further research on prognostic models for predicting outcomes in adults who undergo physical therapy for painful rotator cuff disorders. The design and conduct of future studies should be receptive to developing methods. © 2016 American Physical Therapy

  19. Fractal dimension of chromatin is an independent prognostic factor for survival in melanoma

    Landman Gilles


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognostic factors in malignant melanoma are currently based on clinical data and morphologic examination. Other prognostic features, however, which are not yet used in daily practice, might add important information and thus improve prognosis, treatment, and survival. Therefore a search for new markers is desirable. Previous studies have demonstrated that fractal characteristics of nuclear chromatin are of prognostic importance in neoplasias. We have therefore investigated whether the fractal dimension of nuclear chromatin measured in routine histological preparations of malignant melanomas could be a prognostic factor for survival. Methods We examined 71 primary superficial spreading cutaneous melanoma specimens (thickness ≥ 1 mm from patients with a minimum follow up of 5 years. Nuclear area, form factor and fractal dimension of chromatin texture were obtained from digitalized images of hematoxylin-eosin stained tissue micro array sections. Clark's level, tumor thickness and mitotic rate were also determined. Results The median follow-up was 104 months. Tumor thickness, Clark's level, mitotic rate, nuclear area and fractal dimension were significant risk factors in univariate Cox regressions. In the multivariate Cox regression, stratified for the presence or absence of metastases at diagnosis, only the Clark level and fractal dimension of the nuclear chromatin were included as independent prognostic factors in the final regression model. Conclusion In general, a more aggressive behaviour is usually found in genetically unstable neoplasias with a higher number of genetic or epigenetic changes, which on the other hand, provoke a more complex chromatin rearrangement. The increased nuclear fractal dimension found in the more aggressive melanomas is the mathematical equivalent of a higher complexity of the chromatin architecture. So, there is strong evidence that the fractal dimension of the nuclear chromatin texture is a new

  20. Glioblastoma treated with postoperative radio-chemotherapy: Prognostic value of apparent diffusion coefficient at MR imaging

    Yamasaki, Fumiyuki; Sugiyama, Kazuhiko [Department of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 1-2-3 Kasumi, Minami-ku, Hiroshima 734-8551 (Japan); Ohtaki, Megu [Department of Environmetrics and Biometrics, Research Institute for Radiation Biology and Medicine, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima (Japan); Takeshima, Yukio [Department of Pathology, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima (Japan); Abe, Nobukazu; Akiyama, Yuji; Takaba, Junko [Department of Radiology, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima (Japan); Amatya, Vishwa Jeet [Department of Pathology, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima (Japan); Saito, Taiichi; Kajiwara, Yoshinori; Hanaya, Ryosuke [Department of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 1-2-3 Kasumi, Minami-ku, Hiroshima 734-8551 (Japan); Kurisu, Kaoru [Department of Neurosurgery, Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima 1-2-3 Kasumi, Minami-ku, Hiroshima 734-8551 (Japan)], E-mail:


    Purpose: To retrospectively evaluate whether the mean, minimum, and maximum apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) of glioblastomas obtained from pretreatment MR images is of prognostic value in patients with glioblastoma. Materials and methods: The institutional review board approved our study and waived the requirement for informed patient consent. Between February 1998 and January 2006, 33 patients (24 males, 9 females; age range 10-76 years) with supratentorial glioblastoma underwent pretreatment magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. The values of the mean, minimum, and maximum ADC (ADC{sub mean}, ADC{sub MIN}, and ADC{sub MAX}, respectively) of each tumor were preoperatively determined from several regions of interest defined in the tumors. After surgical intervention, all patients underwent irradiation and chemotherapy performed according to our hospital protocol. The patient age, symptom duration, Karnofsky performance scale score, extent of surgery, and ADC were assessed using factor analysis of overall survival. Prognostic factors were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves, the log-rank test, and multiple regression analysis with the Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Likelihood ratio tests confirmed that ADC{sub MIN} was the strongest among the three prognostic factors. Total surgical removal was the most important predictive factor for overall survival (P < 0.01). ADC{sub MIN} was also statistically correlated with overall survival (P < 0.05) and could be used to classify patients into different prognostic groups. Interestingly, ADC{sub MIN} was also the strongest prognostic factor (P < 0.01) in the group of patients in whom total tumor removal was not possible. Conclusion: The ADC{sub MIN} value obtained from pretreatment MR images is a useful clinical prognostic biomarker in patients with glioblastoma.

  1. Clinical determinants and prognostic significance of the electrocardiographic strain pattern in chronic kidney disease patients.

    Cordeiro, Antonio C; Moraes, Aline A I; Cerutti, Virginia; França, Faustino; Quiroga, Borja; Amodeo, Celso; Picotti, Juliano C; Dutra, Lucas V; Rodrigues, Gabriel D; Amparo, Fernanda C; Lindholm, Bengt; Carrero, Juan Jesús


    The electrocardiographic (ECG) strain pattern (Strain) is a marker of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) severity that provides additional prognostic information beyond echocardiography (ECHO) in the community level. We sought to evaluate its clinical determinants and prognostic usefulness in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. We evaluated 284 non-dialysis-dependent patients with CKD stages 3 to 5 (mean age, 61 years [interquartile range, 53-67 years]; 62% men). Patients were followed for 23 months (range, 13-32 months) for cardiovascular (CV) events and/or death. Strain patients (n = 37; 13%) were using more antihypertensive drugs, had higher prevalence of peripheral vascular disease and smoking, and higher levels of C-reactive protein, cardiac troponin, and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP). The independent predictors of Strain were: left ventricular mass index (LVMI), BNP, and smoking. During follow-up, there were 44 cardiovascular events (fatal and non-fatal) and 22 non-CV deaths; and Strain was associated with a worse prognosis independently of LVMI. Adding Strain to a prognostic model of LVMI improved in 15% the risk discrimination for the composite endpoint and in 12% for the CV events. Strain associates with CV risk factors and adds prognostic information over and above that of ECHO-assessed LVMI. Its routine screening may allow early identification of high risk CKD patients.

  2. Distributed Prognostic Health Management with Gaussian Process Regression

    Saha, Sankalita; Saha, Bhaskar; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank


    Distributed prognostics architecture design is an enabling step for efficient implementation of health management systems. A major challenge encountered in such design is formulation of optimal distributed prognostics algorithms. In this paper. we present a distributed GPR based prognostics algorithm whose target platform is a wireless sensor network. In addition to challenges encountered in a distributed implementation, a wireless network poses constraints on communication patterns, thereby making the problem more challenging. The prognostics application that was used to demonstrate our new algorithms is battery prognostics. In order to present trade-offs within different prognostic approaches, we present comparison with the distributed implementation of a particle filter based prognostics for the same battery data.

  3. The DSM-5 diagnostic criteria for anorexia nervosa may change its population prevalence and prognostic value.

    Mustelin, Linda; Silén, Yasmina; Raevuori, Anu; Hoek, Hans W; Kaprio, Jaakko; Keski-Rahkonen, Anna


    The definition of anorexia nervosa was revised for the Fifth Edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM-5). We examined the impact of these changes on the prevalence and prognosis of anorexia nervosa. In a nationwide longitudinal study of Finnish twins born 1975-1979, the women (N = 2825) underwent a 2-stage screening for eating disorders at mean age 24. Fifty-five women fulfilled DSM-IV criteria for lifetime anorexia nervosa. When we recoded the interviews using DSM-5 criteria, we detected 37 new cases. We contrasted new DSM-5 vs. DSM-IV cases to assess their clinical characteristics and prognosis. We also estimated lifetime prevalences and incidences and tested the association of minimum BMI with prognosis. We observed a 60% increase in the lifetime prevalence of anorexia nervosa using the new diagnostic boundaries, from 2.2% to 3.6%. The new cases had a later age of onset (18.8 y vs. 16.5, p = 0.002), higher minimum BMI (16.9 vs. 15.5 kg/m(2), p = 0.0004), a shorter duration of illness (one year vs. three years, p = 0.002), and a higher 5-year probability or recovery (81% vs. 67%, p = 0.002). Minimum BMI was not associated with prognosis. It therefore appears that the substantial increase in prevalence of anorexia nervosa is offset by a more benign course of illness in new cases. Increased diagnostic heterogeneity underscores the need for reliable indicators of disease severity. Our findings indicate that BMI may not be an ideal severity marker, but should be complemented by prognostically informative criteria. Future studies should focus on identifying such factors in prospective settings.

  4. How Do People with Multiple Sclerosis Experience Prognostic Uncertainty and Prognosis Communication? A Qualitative Study.

    Laura Dennison

    Full Text Available Disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS is highly variable and predicting prognosis is notoriously challenging. Patients' prognosis beliefs, responses to prognostic uncertainty and experiences of prognosis-related communication with healthcare professionals (HCPs have received little study. These issues have implications for patients' psychological adjustment and are important in the context of the recent development of personalised prognosis forecasting tools. This study explored patient perspectives on the experience of prognostic uncertainty, the formation of expectations about personal prognosis and the nature of received and desired prognosis communication.15 MS patients participated in in-depth semi-structured interviews which were analysed using inductive thematic analysis.Six themes captured key aspects of the data: Experiencing unsatisfactory communication with HCPs, Appreciating and accepting prognostic uncertainty, Trying to stay present-focused, Forming and editing personal prognosis beliefs, Ambivalence towards forecasting the future, and Prognosis information delivery. MS patients report having minimal communication with HCPs about prognosis. Over time MS patients appear to develop expectations about their disease trajectories, but do so with minimal HCP input. Provision of prognosis information by HCPs seems to run counter to patients' attempts to remain present-focused. Patients are often ambivalent about prognosis forecasting and consider it emotionally dangerous and of circumscribed usefulness.HCPs must carefully consider whether, when and how to share prognosis information with patients; specific training may be beneficial. Future research should confirm findings about limited HCP-patient communication, distinguish predictors of patients' attitudes towards prognostication and identify circumstances under which prognostic forecasting benefits patients.

  5. Log-normal censored regression model detecting prognostic factors in gastric cancer: A study of 3018 cases

    Bin-Bin Wang; Cai-Gang Liu; Ping Lu; A Latengbaolide; Yang Lu


    AIM: To investigate the efficiency of Cox proportional hazard model in detecting prognostic factors for gastric cancer.METHODS: We used the log-normal regression model to evaluate prognostic factors in gastric cancer and compared it with the Cox model. Three thousand and eighteen gastric cancer patients who received a gastrectomy between 1980 and 2004 were retrospectively evaluated. Clinic-pathological factors were included in a log-normal model as well as Cox model. The akaike information criterion (AIC) was employed to compare the efficiency of both models. Univariate analysis indicated that age at diagnosis, past history, cancer location, distant metastasis status, surgical curative degree, combined other organ resection, Borrmann type, Lauren's classification, pT stage, total dissected nodes and pN stage were prognostic factors in both log-normal and Cox models.RESULTS: In the final multivariate model, age at diagnosis,past history, surgical curative degree, Borrmann type, Lauren's classification, pT stage, and pN stage were significant prognostic factors in both log-normal and Cox models. However, cancer location, distant metastasis status, and histology types were found to be significant prognostic factors in log-normal results alone.According to AIC, the log-normal model performed better than the Cox proportional hazard model (AIC value:2534.72 vs 1693.56).CONCLUSION: It is suggested that the log-normal regression model can be a useful statistical model to evaluate prognostic factors instead of the Cox proportional hazard model.

  6. The International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grading system for renal cell carcinoma and other prognostic parameters.

    Delahunt, Brett; Cheville, John C; Martignoni, Guido; Humphrey, Peter A; Magi-Galluzzi, Cristina; McKenney, Jesse; Egevad, Lars; Algaba, Ferran; Moch, Holger; Grignon, David J; Montironi, Rodolfo; Srigley, John R


    The International Society of Urological Pathology 2012 Consensus Conference made recommendations regarding classification, prognostic factors, staging, and immunohistochemical and molecular assessment of adult renal tumors. Issues relating to prognostic factors were coordinated by a workgroup who identified tumor morphotype, sarcomatoid/rhabdoid differentiation, tumor necrosis, grading, and microvascular invasion as potential prognostic parameters. There was consensus that the main morphotypes of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) were of prognostic significance, that subtyping of papillary RCC (types 1 and 2) provided additional prognostic information, and that clear cell tubulopapillary RCC was associated with a more favorable outcome. For tumors showing sarcomatoid or rhabdoid differentiation, there was consensus that a minimum proportion of tumor was not required for diagnostic purposes. It was also agreed upon that the underlying subtype of carcinoma should be reported. For sarcomatoid carcinoma, it was further agreed upon that if the underlying carcinoma subtype was absent the tumor should be classified as a grade 4 unclassified carcinoma with a sarcomatoid component. Tumor necrosis was considered to have prognostic significance, with assessment based on macroscopic and microscopic examination of the tumor. It was recommended that for clear cell RCC the amount of necrosis should be quantified. There was consensus that nucleolar prominence defined grades 1 to 3 of clear cell and papillary RCCs, whereas extreme nuclear pleomorphism or sarcomatoid and/or rhabdoid differentiation defined grade 4 tumors. It was agreed upon that chromophobe RCC should not be graded. There was consensus that microvascular invasion should not be included as a staging criterion for RCC.

  7. Confiabilidade da informação sobre mortalidade por violência em Belo Horizonte, MG Reliability of cause of death due to violence from information systems in Belo Horizonte, Southern Brazil

    Sonia Gesteira e Matos


    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Determinar a confiabilidade da codificação e seleção da causa básica dos óbitos por violência; verificar a concordância entre causa registrada no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade e causa selecionada após investigação no Instituto Médico Legal; avaliar o impacto de incorporar informações pós-investigação dos acidentes não especificados e eventos de intenção indeterminada nas estatísticas de mortalidade. MÉTODOS: Selecionou-se amostra aleatória de 411 declarações de óbito de residentes em Belo Horizonte, MG, de 1998 a 2000. Com base nas informações dessas declarações e do Instituto Médico Legal, procedeu-se à codificação da causa e à determinação da concordância entre esta codificação e aquela registrada no Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade. Ainda, para todas as declarações classificadas como "acidentes não especificados" e "eventos de intenção indeterminada", avaliou-se o impacto da agregação das informações do Instituto Médico Legal sobre a classificação dos diversos tipos de violência. RESULTADOS: A concordância da codificação foi substancial (Kappa=0,782; IC 95%: 0,744; 0,819 e, da causa básica entre moderada e substancial (Kappa=0,602; IC 95%: 0,563; 0,641. Identificou-se 12,9% mais suicídios e 5,7% mais homicídios entre os acidentes não especificados e eventos de intenção indeterminada, estes reduzidos em 47,3% e 59,8%, respectivamente. CONCLUSÕES: Verificou-se necessidade de aprimoramento da codificação e seleção da causa básica; de melhoria no preenchimento da declaração de óbito pelos legistas e das informações médicas e policiais nos documentos de encaminhamento de corpos para necropsia, em especial nos acidentes de transporte e quedas.OBJECTIVE: To determine reliability of data encoding for death due to violence; to assess the agreement between cause of death in the Mortality Information System and cause selected from the Forensic

  8. Prognostic Value of a BCSC-associated MicroRNA Signature in Hormone Receptor-Positive HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

    Chang Gong


    Conclusions: Our 10-miRNA-based classifier provides a reliable prognostic model for disease recurrence in HR+HER2− breast cancer patients. This model may facilitate personalized therapy-decision making for HR+HER2− individuals.

  9. Reliability based structural design

    Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.


    According to ISO 2394, structures shall be designed, constructed and maintained in such a way that they are suited for their use during the design working life in an economic way. To fulfil this requirement one needs insight into the risk and reliability under expected and non-expected actions. A ke

  10. Reliability based structural design

    Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.


    According to ISO 2394, structures shall be designed, constructed and maintained in such a way that they are suited for their use during the design working life in an economic way. To fulfil this requirement one needs insight into the risk and reliability under expected and non-expected actions. A ke

  11. The value of reliability

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Karlström, Anders


    We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless...

  12. Parametric Mass Reliability Study

    Holt, James P.


    The International Space Station (ISS) systems are designed based upon having redundant systems with replaceable orbital replacement units (ORUs). These ORUs are designed to be swapped out fairly quickly, but some are very large, and some are made up of many components. When an ORU fails, it is replaced on orbit with a spare; the failed unit is sometimes returned to Earth to be serviced and re-launched. Such a system is not feasible for a 500+ day long-duration mission beyond low Earth orbit. The components that make up these ORUs have mixed reliabilities. Components that make up the most mass-such as computer housings, pump casings, and the silicon board of PCBs-typically are the most reliable. Meanwhile components that tend to fail the earliest-such as seals or gaskets-typically have a small mass. To better understand the problem, my project is to create a parametric model that relates both the mass of ORUs to reliability, as well as the mass of ORU subcomponents to reliability.

  13. Avionics Design for Reliability


    Consultant P.O. Box 181, Hazelwood. Missouri 63042, U.S.A. soup ""•.• • CONTENTS Page LIST OF SPEAKERS iii INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW-RELIABILITY UNDER... primordial , d’autant plus quo dans co cam ia procg- dure do st~lection en fiabilitg eat assez peu efficaco. La ripartition des pannes suit

  14. Wind Energy - How Reliable.


    The reliability of a wind energy system depends on the size of the propeller and the size of the back-up energy storage. Design of the optimum system...speed incidents which generate a significant part of the wind energy . A nomogram is presented, based on some continuous wind speed measurements

  15. The reliability horizon

    Visser, M


    The ``reliability horizon'' for semi-classical quantum gravity quantifies the extent to which we should trust semi-classical quantum gravity, and gives a handle on just where the ``Planck regime'' resides. The key obstruction to pushing semi-classical quantum gravity into the Planck regime is often the existence of large metric fluctuations, rather than a large back-reaction.

  16. High reliability organizations

    Gallis, R.; Zwetsloot, G.I.J.M.


    High Reliability Organizations (HRO’s) are organizations that constantly face serious and complex (safety) risks yet succeed in realising an excellent safety performance. In such situations acceptable levels of safety cannot be achieved by traditional safety management only. HRO’s manage safety

  17. Reliability of conditioned pain modulation: a systematic review.

    Kennedy, Donna L; Kemp, Harriet I; Ridout, Deborah; Yarnitsky, David; Rice, Andrew S C


    A systematic literature review was undertaken to determine if conditioned pain modulation (CPM) is reliable. Longitudinal, English language observational studies of the repeatability of a CPM test paradigm in adult humans were included. Two independent reviewers assessed the risk of bias in 6 domains; study participation; study attrition; prognostic factor measurement; outcome measurement; confounding and analysis using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) critical assessment tool. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) less than 0.4 were considered to be poor; 0.4 and 0.59 to be fair; 0.6 and 0.75 good and greater than 0.75 excellent. Ten studies were included in the final review. Meta-analysis was not appropriate because of differences between studies. The intersession reliability of the CPM effect was investigated in 8 studies and reported as good (ICC = 0.6-0.75) in 3 studies and excellent (ICC > 0.75) in subgroups in 2 of those 3. The assessment of risk of bias demonstrated that reporting is not comprehensive for the description of sample demographics, recruitment strategy, and study attrition. The absence of blinding, a lack of control for confounding factors, and lack of standardisation in statistical analysis are common. Conditioned pain modulation is a reliable measure; however, the degree of reliability is heavily dependent on stimulation parameters and study methodology and this warrants consideration for investigators. The validation of CPM as a robust prognostic factor in experimental and clinical pain studies may be facilitated by improvements in the reporting of CPM reliability studies.

  18. Genome-Wide Gene Expression Profile Analyses Identify CTTN as a Potential Prognostic Marker in Esophageal Cancer


    Aim Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is one of the most common fatal malignances of the digestive tract. Its prognosis is poor mainly due to the lack of reliable markers for early detection and prognostic prediction. Here we aim to identify the molecules involved in ESCC carcinogenesis and those as potential markers for prognosis and as new molecular therapeutic targets. Methods We performed genome-wide gene expression profile analyses of 10 primary ESCCs and their adjacent normal ti...

  19. Prognostic Factors in Patients with Pancreatic Carcinoma

    HANYue; SUICheng-guang1; RUANZhi-ping


    To evaluate the major prognostic factors in patients with pancreatic carcinoma.Methods : 113 cases of a particular disease were retrospectively analysed and 9 factors for prognosis were studied by muitivaritate analysis with Cox proportional hazards survival model. Survival rate was calculated by Kaplan-Meier estimation. Results:In this group,survival time was 0.1 to 82 months,and the median survival time was 3 months.Overall survival rates at month 6,12,18,36 were 35.6%, 20.3%, 15.9% and 6.2%, respectively.Multivariate analyses revealed significant prognostic factors as follows:jaundice, metastasis, therapy method and synthetic therapy. Conchusion: The prognosis of pancreatic carcinoma is determined by various factors. Jaundice and metastasis are independent predictors of poor survival.Radical operation and synthetic therapy will improve the prognosis.

  20. Prognostic Gene Expression Profiles in Breast Cancer

    Sørensen, Kristina Pilekær

    Each year approximately 4,800 Danish women are diagnosed with breast cancer. Several clinical and pathological factors are used as prognostic and predictive markers to categorize the patients into groups of high or low risk. Around 90% of all patients are allocated to the high risk group...... clinical courses, and they may be useful as novel prognostic biomarkers in breast cancer. The aim of the present project was to predict the development of metastasis in lymph node negative breast cancer patients by RNA profiling. We collected and analyzed 82 primary breast tumors from patients who...... and the time of event. Previous findings have shown that high expression of the lncRNA HOTAIR is correlated with poor survival in breast cancer. We validated this finding by demonstrating that high HOTAIR expression in our primary tumors was significantly associated with worse prognosis independent...

  1. [Prognostic factors of early breast cancer].

    Almagro, Elena; González, Cynthia S; Espinosa, Enrique


    Decision about the administration of adjuvant therapy for early breast cancer depends on the evaluation of prognostic factors. Lymph node status, tumor size and grade of differentiation are classical variables in this regard, and can be complemented by hormonal receptor status and HER2 expression. These factors can be combined into prognostic indexes to better estimate the risk of relapse or death. Other factors are less important. Gene profiles have emerged in recent years to identify low-risk patients who can forgo adjuvant chemotherapy. A number of profiles are available and can be used in selected cases. In the future, gene profiling will be used to select patients for treatment with new targeted therapies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Diagnostic and prognostic epigenetic biomarkers in cancer.

    Costa-Pinheiro, Pedro; Montezuma, Diana; Henrique, Rui; Jerónimo, Carmen


    Growing cancer incidence and mortality worldwide demands development of accurate biomarkers to perfect detection, diagnosis, prognostication and monitoring. Urologic (prostate, bladder, kidney), lung, breast and colorectal cancers are the most common and despite major advances in their characterization, this has seldom translated into biomarkers amenable for clinical practice. Epigenetic alterations are innovative cancer biomarkers owing to stability, frequency, reversibility and accessibility in body fluids, entailing great potential of assay development to assist in patient management. Several studies identified putative epigenetic cancer biomarkers, some of which have been commercialized. However, large multicenter validation studies are required to foster translation to the clinics. Herein we review the most promising epigenetic detection, diagnostic, prognostic and predictive biomarkers for the most common cancers.

  3. Prognostic Gene Expression Profiles in Breast Cancer

    Sørensen, Kristina Pilekær

    Each year approximately 4,800 Danish women are diagnosed with breast cancer. Several clinical and pathological factors are used as prognostic and predictive markers to categorize the patients into groups of high or low risk. Around 90% of all patients are allocated to the high risk group...... clinical courses, and they may be useful as novel prognostic biomarkers in breast cancer. The aim of the present project was to predict the development of metastasis in lymph node negative breast cancer patients by RNA profiling. We collected and analyzed 82 primary breast tumors from patients who...... and the time of event. Previous findings have shown that high expression of the lncRNA HOTAIR is correlated with poor survival in breast cancer. We validated this finding by demonstrating that high HOTAIR expression in our primary tumors was significantly associated with worse prognosis independent...

  4. [Maternal and foetal prognostic during severe toxemia].

    Rachdi, Radhouane; Kaabi, Mehdi; Zayene, Houssine; Basly, Mohamed; Messaoudi, Fathi; Messaoudi, Lotfi; Chibani, Mounir


    Severe gravidic toxemia gives heavy maternal and foetal morbidity and mortality. The purpose of our study is to loosen the factors of bad maternal and foetal prognostic. It's a retrospective study about 100 cases of severe and complicated gravidic toxemia repertorieted in the maternity of Military Hospital of Tunis. Maternal morbidity is dominated by the complications of hypertension and a blood disorders. We raised 4 cases of eclampsia, 9 cases of retro placental hematome and 5 cases of HELLP syndrome. We don't deplore any maternal death. Perinatal mortality is 28.8%. The rate of delay intra-uterine growth was 43.8% and the prematurity 65.9%. More toxemia appears early during pregnancy more maternal and foetal prognostic is compromised.

  5. Reliability in the utility computing era: Towards reliable Fog computing

    Madsen, Henrik; Burtschy, Bernard; Albeanu, G.


    This paper considers current paradigms in computing and outlines the most important aspects concerning their reliability. The Fog computing paradigm as a non-trivial extension of the Cloud is considered and the reliability of the networks of smart devices are discussed. Combining the reliability...... requirements of grid and cloud paradigms with the reliability requirements of networks of sensor and actuators it follows that designing a reliable Fog computing platform is feasible....

  6. Predictive and prognostic molecular markers for cancer medicine.

    Mehta, Sunali; Shelling, Andrew; Muthukaruppan, Anita; Lasham, Annette; Blenkiron, Cherie; Laking, George; Print, Cristin


    Over the last 10 years there has been an explosion of information about the molecular biology of cancer. A challenge in oncology is to translate this information into advances in patient care. While there are well-formed routes for translating new molecular information into drug therapy, the routes for translating new information into sensitive and specific diagnostic, prognostic and predictive tests are still being developed. Similarly, the science of using tumor molecular profiles to select clinical trial participants or to optimize therapy for individual patients is still in its infancy. This review will summarize the current technologies for predicting treatment response and prognosis in cancer medicine, and outline what the future may hold. It will also highlight the potential importance of methods that can integrate molecular, histopathological and clinical information into a synergistic understanding of tumor progression. While these possibilities are without doubt exciting, significant challenges remain if we are to implement them with a strong evidence base in a widely available and cost-effective manner.

  7. Potential Prognostic Markers for Human Prostate Cancer


    Prostate 35: 185-192, 1998 osteoblasts on prostate carcinoma proliferation and chemo- 32. Trikha M, Cai Y, Grignon D, Honn KV: Identification taxis ...Markers for Human Prostate Cancer PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Bruce R. Zetter, Ph.D. CONTRACTING ORGANIZATION: Children’s Hospital Boston, Massachusetts...March 2001 Final (1 Sep 98 - 28 Feb 01) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Potential Prognostic Markers for Human Prostate Cancer DAMD17-98-1

  8. Prognostic Analysis of the Tactical Quiet Generator

    Hively, Lee M [ORNL


    The U.S. Army needs prognostic analysis of mission-critical equipment to enable condition-based maintenance before failure. ORNL has developed and patented prognostic technology that quantifies condition change from noisy, multi-channel, time-serial data. This report describes an initial application of ORNL's prognostic technology to the Army's Tactical Quiet Generator (TQG), which is designed to operate continuously at 10 kW. Less-than-full power operation causes unburned fuel to accumulate on internal components, thereby degrading operation and eventually leading to failure. The first objective of this work was identification of easily-acquired, process-indicative data. Two types of appropriate data were identified, namely output-electrical current and voltage, plus tri-axial acceleration (vibration). The second objective of this work was data quality analysis to avoid the garbage-in-garbage-out syndrome. Quality analysis identified more than 10% of the current data as having consecutive values that are constant, or that saturate at an extreme value. Consequently, the electrical data were not analyzed further. The third objective was condition-change analysis to indicate operational stress under non-ideal operation and machine degradation in proportion to the operational stress. Application of ORNL's novel phase-space dissimilarity measures to the vibration power quantified the rising operational stress in direct proportion to the less-than-full-load power. We conclude that ORNL's technology is an excellent candidate to meet the U.S. Army's need for equipment prognostication.

  9. Prognostic factors in young ovarian cancer patients

    Klar, M; Hasenburg, A; Hasanov, M;


    OBJECTIVES: We evaluated in a large study meta-database of prospectively randomised phase III trials the prognostic factors for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in patients 40 years of age with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer. METHODS: A total of 5055 patients...... epithelial ovarian cancer, excellent performance status, who had received complete macroscopic upfront cytoreduction and ≥5 chemotherapy cycles. RESULTS: For patients

  10. Infants prefer to imitate a reliable person.

    Poulin-Dubois, Diane; Brooker, Ivy; Polonia, Alexandra


    Research has shown that preschoolers prefer to learn from individuals who are a reliable source of information. The current study examined whether the past reliability of a person's emotional signals influences infants' willingness to imitate that person. An emotional referencing task was first administered to infants in order to demonstrate the experimenter's credibility or lack thereof. Next, infants in both conditions watched as the same experimenter turned on a touch light using her forehead. Infants were then given the opportunity to reproduce this novel action. As expected, infants in the unreliable condition developed the expectation that the person's emotional cues were misleading. Thus, these infants were subsequently more likely to use their hands than their foreheads when attempting to turn on the light. In contrast, infants in the reliable group were more likely to imitate the experimenter's action using their foreheads. These results suggest that the reliability of the model influences infants' imitation.


    Wang Qiang; Lu Yang; Xu Zijun; Han Jianghong


    With the rapid progress of component technology,the software development methodology of gathering a large number of components for designing complex software systems has matured.But,how to assess the application reliability accurately with the information of system architecture and the components reliabilities together has become a knotty problem.In this paper,the defects in formal description of software architecture and the limitations in existed model assumptions are both analyzed.Moreover,a new software reliability model called Component Interaction Mode (CIM) is proposed.With this model,the problem for existed component-based software reliability analysis models that cannot deal with the cases of component interaction with non-failure independent and non-random control transition is resolved.At last,the practice examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of this model

  12. Measurement Practices for Reliability and Power Quality

    Kueck, JD


    regulators. The report will also serve to support activities to develop and share information among industry and regulatory participants about critical resources and practices. The toolkit has been developed by investigating the status of indices and definitions, surveying utility organizations on information sharing, and preparing summaries of reliability standards and monitoring requirements--the issues, needs, work under way, existing standards, practices and guidelines--for the following three classifications: (1) terms and definitions of reliability; (2) power quality standards, guidelines, and measurements; and (3) activities and organizations developing and sharing information on distribution reliability. As these synopses of reliability measurement practices are provided, it must be noted that an economic penalty may be associated with requiring too high a reliability level from the distribution system for all customers. It may be appropriate for the distribution system to supply only some base, generally accepted level of reliability. This base level would be adequate for the majority of customers. Users who need a higher level may find it economical to supply using distributed energy resources (DER) and other local solutions to reliability and power quality needs. Local solutions implemented by the customer may be the most cost-effective method for addressing the more stringent needs of a digital economy. These local solutions include energy storage, small distributed generators, and microgrids. This report also considers the market's role in addressing reliability issues and requirements. The customer's needs are discussed in view of issues such as power quality requirements of digital electronic equipment, the cost of outages, the cost of storage and new infrastructure, and natural gas prices. The market role in addressing these issues and requirements is explored. The economic considerations associated with the reliability issues are discussed, as well

  13. New prognostic biomarkers in multiple myeloma

    Aneta Szudy-Szczyrek


    Full Text Available Multiple myeloma is a malignant neoplastic disease, characterized by uncontrolled proliferation and accumulation of plasma cells in the bone marrow, which is usually connected with production of a monoclonal protein. It is the second most common hematologic malignancy. It constitutes approximately 1% of all cancers and 10% of hematological malignancies. Despite the huge progress that has been made in the treatment of multiple myeloma in the past 30 years including the introduction of new immunomodulatory drugs and proteasome inhibitors, it is still an incurable disease. According to current data, the five-year survival rate is 45%. Multiple myeloma is a very heterogeneous disease with a very diverse clinical course, which is expressed by differences in effectiveness of therapeutic strategies and ability to develop chemoresistance. This diversity implies the need to define risk stratification factors that would help to create personalized and optimized therapy and thereby improve treatment outcomes. Prognostic markers that aim to objectively evaluate the risk of a poor outcome, relapse and the patient’s overall outcome are useful for this purpose. The existing, widely used prognostic classifications, such as the Salmon-Durie classification or ISS, do not allow for individualization of treatment. As a result of the development of diagnostic techniques, especially cytogenetics and molecular biology, we were able to discover a lot of new, more sensitive and specific prognostic factors. The paper presents recent reports on the role of molecular, cytogenetic and biochemical alterations in pathogenesis and prognosis of the disease.

  14. New prognostic markers in liver cirrhosis.

    Di Martino, Vincent; Weil, Delphine; Cervoni, Jean-Paul; Thevenot, Thierry


    Determining the prognosis of cirrhotic patients is not an easy task. Prognostic scores, like Child-Pugh and Model of End-stage Liver Disease scores, are commonly used by hepatologists, but do not always reflect superimposed events that may strongly influence the prognosis. Among them, bacterial intestinal translocation is a key phenomenon for the development of cirrhosis-related complications. Several biological variables (C-reactive protein, serum free cortisol, copeptin, von Willebrand factor antigen) are surrogates of "inflammatory stress" and have recently been identified as potential prognostic markers in cirrhotic patients. Most of these above mentioned markers were investigated in pilot studies with sometimes a modest sample size but allow us to catch a glimpse of the pathophysiological mechanisms leading to the worsening of cirrhosis. These new data should generate further well-designed studies to better assess the benefit for liver function of preventing intestinal bacterial translocation and microvascular thrombosis. The control of infection is vital and among all actors of immunity, vitamin D also appears to act as an anti-infective agent and therefore has probably a prognostic value.


    A. V. Seriogin


    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to reveal the independent anatomic, histological, and clinical factors of cancer-specific survival in patients with renal-cell carcinoma (RCC. For this, the authors retrospectively analyzed their experience with radical surgical treatments in 73 RCC patients operated on at the Department of Urology and Surgical Andrology, Russian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2004; their outcomes have become known by the present time. There was a statistically significant correlation of cancer-specific survival with its parameters, such as pathological stage of a tumor, its maximum pathological size, differentiation grade, involvement of regional lymph nodes, venous tumor thrombosis, level of thrombocytosis, and degree of the clinical symptoms of the disease. Multivariate analysis of survival in RCC in relation to the prognostic factors could reveal odd ratios for the limit values of significant prognostic factors. The statistically significant prognostic values established in the present study, as well as the molecular factors the implication of which is being now investigated can become in future an effective addition to the TNM staging system to define indications for certain treatments and to predict survival in RCC  

  16. Microvascular structure as a prognostically relevant endpoint.

    Agabiti-Rosei, Enrico; Rizzoni, Damiano


    Remodelling of subcutaneous small resistance arteries, as indicated by an increased media-to-lumen ratio, is frequently present in hypertensive, obese, or diabetic patients. The increased media-to-lumen ratio may impair organ flow reserve. This may be important in the maintenance and, probably, also in the progressive worsening of hypertensive disease. The presence of structural alterations represents a prognostically relevant factor, in terms of development of target organ damage or cardiovascular events, thus allowing us a prediction of complications in hypertension. In fact, media-to-lumen ratio of small arteries at baseline, and possibly their changes during treatment may have a strong prognostic significance. However, new, non-invasive techniques are needed before suggesting extensive application of the evaluation of remodelling of small arteries for the cardiovascular risk stratification in hypertensive patients. Some new techniques for the evaluation of microvascular morphology in the retina, currently under clinical investigation, seem to represent a promising and interesting future perspective. The evaluation of microvascular structure is progressively moving from bench to bedside, and it could represent, in the near future, an evaluation to be performed in all hypertensive patients, to obtain a better stratification of cardiovascular risk, and, possibly, it might be considered as an intermediate endpoint in the evaluation of the effects of antihypertensive therapy, provided that a demonstration of a prognostic value of non-invasive measures of microvascular structure is made available.


    A. V. Seriogin


    Full Text Available The purpose of the study was to reveal the independent anatomic, histological, and clinical factors of cancer-specific survival in patients with renal-cell carcinoma (RCC. For this, the authors retrospectively analyzed their experience with radical surgical treatments in 73 RCC patients operated on at the Department of Urology and Surgical Andrology, Russian Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2004; their outcomes have become known by the present time. There was a statistically significant correlation of cancer-specific survival with its parameters, such as pathological stage of a tumor, its maximum pathological size, differentiation grade, involvement of regional lymph nodes, venous tumor thrombosis, level of thrombocytosis, and degree of the clinical symptoms of the disease. Multivariate analysis of survival in RCC in relation to the prognostic factors could reveal odd ratios for the limit values of significant prognostic factors. The statistically significant prognostic values established in the present study, as well as the molecular factors the implication of which is being now investigated can become in future an effective addition to the TNM staging system to define indications for certain treatments and to predict survival in RCC  

  18. Reliability databases: State-of-the-art and perspectives

    Akhmedjanov, Farit


    The report gives a history of development and an overview of the existing reliability databases. This overview also describes some other (than computer databases) sources of reliability and failures information, e.g. reliability handbooks, but the mainattention is paid to standard models and soft......The report gives a history of development and an overview of the existing reliability databases. This overview also describes some other (than computer databases) sources of reliability and failures information, e.g. reliability handbooks, but the mainattention is paid to standard models...... and software packages containing the data mentioned. The standards corresponding to collection and exchange of reliability data are observed too. Finally, perspective directions in such data sources development areshown....

  19. Incremental Prognostic Power of Novel Biomarkers (Growth-Differentiation Factor-15, High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein, Galectin-3, and High-Sensitivity Troponin-T) in Patients With Advanced Chronic Heart Failure

    Lok, Dirk J.; Klip, IJsbrand T.; Lok, Sjoukje I.; de la Porte, Pieta W. Bruggink-Andre; Badings, Erik; van Wijngaarden, Jan; Voors, Adriaan A.; de Boer, Rudolf A.; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; van der Meer, Peter


    Elevated natriuretic peptides provide strong prognostic information in patients with heart failure (HF). The role of novel biomarkers in HF needs to be established. Our objective was to evaluate the prognostic power of novel biomarkers, incremental to the N-terminal portion of the natriuretic peptid

  20. Human Reliability Program Workshop

    Landers, John; Rogers, Erin; Gerke, Gretchen


    A Human Reliability Program (HRP) is designed to protect national security as well as worker and public safety by continuously evaluating the reliability of those who have access to sensitive materials, facilities, and programs. Some elements of a site HRP include systematic (1) supervisory reviews, (2) medical and psychological assessments, (3) management evaluations, (4) personnel security reviews, and (4) training of HRP staff and critical positions. Over the years of implementing an HRP, the Department of Energy (DOE) has faced various challenges and overcome obstacles. During this 4-day activity, participants will examine programs that mitigate threats to nuclear security and the insider threat to include HRP, Nuclear Security Culture (NSC) Enhancement, and Employee Assistance Programs. The focus will be to develop an understanding of the need for a systematic HRP and to discuss challenges and best practices associated with mitigating the insider threat.

  1. Accelerator reliability workshop

    Hardy, L.; Duru, Ph.; Koch, J.M.; Revol, J.L.; Van Vaerenbergh, P.; Volpe, A.M.; Clugnet, K.; Dely, A.; Goodhew, D


    About 80 experts attended this workshop, which brought together all accelerator communities: accelerator driven systems, X-ray sources, medical and industrial accelerators, spallation sources projects (American and European), nuclear physics, etc. With newly proposed accelerator applications such as nuclear waste transmutation, replacement of nuclear power plants and others. Reliability has now become a number one priority for accelerator designers. Every part of an accelerator facility from cryogenic systems to data storage via RF systems are concerned by reliability. This aspect is now taken into account in the design/budget phase, especially for projects whose goal is to reach no more than 10 interruptions per year. This document gathers the slides but not the proceedings of the workshop.

  2. Reliability and construction control

    Sherif S. AbdelSalam


    Full Text Available The goal of this study was to determine the most reliable and efficient combination of design and construction methods required for vibro piles. For a wide range of static and dynamic formulas, the reliability-based resistance factors were calculated using EGYPT database, which houses load test results for 318 piles. The analysis was extended to introduce a construction control factor that determines the variation between the pile nominal capacities calculated using static versus dynamic formulae. From the major outcomes, the lowest coefficient of variation is associated with Davisson’s criterion, and the resistance factors calculated for the AASHTO method are relatively high compared with other methods. Additionally, the CPT-Nottingham and Schmertmann method provided the most economic design. Recommendations related to a pile construction control factor were also presented, and it was found that utilizing the factor can significantly reduce variations between calculated and actual capacities.

  3. Improving Power Converter Reliability

    Ghimire, Pramod; de Vega, Angel Ruiz; Beczkowski, Szymon


    The real-time junction temperature monitoring of a high-power insulated-gate bipolar transistor (IGBT) module is important to increase the overall reliability of power converters for industrial applications. This article proposes a new method to measure the on-state collector?emitter voltage...... of a high-power IGBT module during converter operation, which may play a vital role in improving the reliability of the power converters. The measured voltage is used to estimate the module average junction temperature of the high and low-voltage side of a half-bridge IGBT separately in every fundamental...... is measured in a wind power converter at a low fundamental frequency. To illustrate more, the test method as well as the performance of the measurement circuit are also presented. This measurement is also useful to indicate failure mechanisms such as bond wire lift-off and solder layer degradation...

  4. ATLAS reliability analysis

    Bartsch, R.R.


    Key elements of the 36 MJ ATLAS capacitor bank have been evaluated for individual probabilities of failure. These have been combined to estimate system reliability which is to be greater than 95% on each experimental shot. This analysis utilizes Weibull or Weibull-like distributions with increasing probability of failure with the number of shots. For transmission line insulation, a minimum thickness is obtained and for the railgaps, a method for obtaining a maintenance interval from forthcoming life tests is suggested.

  5. Reliability of Circumplex Axes

    Micha Strack


    Full Text Available We present a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA procedure for computing the reliability of circumplex axes. The tau-equivalent CFA variance decomposition model estimates five variance components: general factor, axes, scale-specificity, block-specificity, and item-specificity. Only the axes variance component is used for reliability estimation. We apply the model to six circumplex types and 13 instruments assessing interpersonal and motivational constructs—Interpersonal Adjective List (IAL, Interpersonal Adjective Scales (revised; IAS-R, Inventory of Interpersonal Problems (IIP, Impact Messages Inventory (IMI, Circumplex Scales of Interpersonal Values (CSIV, Support Action Scale Circumplex (SAS-C, Interaction Problems With Animals (IPI-A, Team Role Circle (TRC, Competing Values Leadership Instrument (CV-LI, Love Styles, Organizational Culture Assessment Instrument (OCAI, Customer Orientation Circle (COC, and System for Multi-Level Observation of Groups (behavioral adjectives; SYMLOG—in 17 German-speaking samples (29 subsamples, grouped by self-report, other report, and metaperception assessments. The general factor accounted for a proportion ranging from 1% to 48% of the item variance, the axes component for 2% to 30%; and scale specificity for 1% to 28%, respectively. Reliability estimates varied considerably from .13 to .92. An application of the Nunnally and Bernstein formula proposed by Markey, Markey, and Tinsley overestimated axes reliabilities in cases of large-scale specificities but otherwise works effectively. Contemporary circumplex evaluations such as Tracey’s RANDALL are sensitive to the ratio of the axes and scale-specificity components. In contrast, the proposed model isolates both components.

  6. Proposal of a prognostically relevant grading scheme for pulmonary squamous cell carcinoma.

    Weichert, Wilko; Kossakowski, Claudia; Harms, Alexander; Schirmacher, Peter; Muley, Thomas; Dienemann, Hendrik; Warth, Arne


    Recent studies in lung adenocarcinoma established a clinically relevant histomorphology-based classification. In contrast, no morphological classifiers have yet been implemented into routine diagnostics for lung squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC). However, morphology-based characteristics putatively impacting on survival have been proposed.We analysed a cohort of 541 SQCC patients with complete clinical follow-up data for morphological characteristics (keratinisation, tumour cell budding, size of tumour cell nests, nuclear size and stromal content). Morphological characteristics were correlated with clinical data and patient outcome.Keratinisation, budding, stromal content and tumour cell nest size, but not nuclear size, were associated with distinct clinicopathological characteristics and survival. SQCC patients with keratinisation, small cell nest size, high stromal content and extensive budding had shorter overall survival. A combined grading scheme composed of the two most reliable validated prognostic markers, i.e. budding and nest size, resulted in an age-, stage- and sex-independent prognosticator for overall survival with a hazard ratio of 1.6 for grade 2 tumours and a hazard ratio of 3.7 for grade 3 tumours when compared with grade 1 neoplasms (p<0.001).Morphological characteristics of SQCC have significant prognostic impact and could constitute the basis for a diagnostically relevant future SQCC grading scheme.

  7. The prognostic value of serum LDH levels in patients with hepatocellualr carcinoma after hepatic resection.

    Hu, Wen-Jie; Fu, Shun-Jun; Diao, Jing-Fang; Wan, Dai-Wei; Tan, Zhi-Jian; Zhi, Qiao-Ming; He, Jun-Ming


    Serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) is a prognostic marker in many tumor types. The present study is to determine the value of preoperative peripheral LDH in predicting the prognosis of patients with HCC after hepatectomy. Clinicopathological and follow-up data selected 323 HCC patients who underwent hepatectomy. These patients were categorized as high LDH(>240 U/I) and low LDH group (≤ 240 U/I). Significant differences in tumor size, capsulation, tumor number, vascular invasion and TNM stage were observed between these two groups (P 240 U/I group were poorer than those in the LDH ≤ 240 U/I group respectively. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that LDH > 240 U/I served as an independent prognostic indicator of worse disease-free survival [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.711; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.275-2.297; P < 0.001] and overall survival (HR = 1.568; 95% CI, 1.144-2.149; P = 0.005). Stratification analysis showed that LDH exhibited a greater predictive value for DFS and OS in HCC patients with with AFP < 200 ng/ml. Our results suggested that serum LDH level might be a potential and reliable prognostic biomarker in HCC patients after liver resection.

  8. Open globe eye injury characteristics and prognostic factors in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

    Makhrash, Mashaal A; Gosadi, Ibrahim M


    To evaluate characteristics and prognostic factors of open globe injuries (OGI) presented to King Fahad Specialist Hospital in the Jazan region, Saudi Arabia.  Methods: This study is a retrospective review of medical records of OGI patients who underwent operative repair of their injuries in King Fahad Central Hospital, Jazan, Saudi Arabia between January 2011 and December 2013. Demographic information, eye injury, preoperative, and postoperative visual acuity were collected. The initial and final visual acuity outcomes were compared to identify subjects who witnessed any improvement in their visual acuity. Logistic regression was used to assess characteristics associated with improvements in the visual acuity.  Results: Number of included cases was 120. Most frequently reported causes of injury were blunt trauma (20%) and shattered glass (18.3%). Approximately half of the cases were reported to have iris injuries or hyphema. Most cases suffered penetration (37.5%) of the eye globe. Only zone I injury was significantly associated with better visual acuity outcomes (odds ratio [OR]: 2.447, p=0.036). Among the variables that were associated with poorer prognostic outcomes, only aphakia (OR: 0.180), retinal damage (OR: 0.062), vitreous hemorrhage (OR: 0.266), and zone III injuries (OR: 0.092) were statistically significant (p less than 0.05).     Conclusion: Zone I injury appears to have a better prognostic effect on visual acuity where injuries related to Zone III were associated with worse prognostic outcomes.

  9. Independent prognostic value of angiogenesis and the level of plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 in breast cancer patients

    Hansen, S.; Overgaard, Jens; Rose, C.


    Tumour angiogenesis and the levels of plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) are both informative prognostic markers in breast cancer. In cell cultures and in animal model systems, PAI-1 has a proangiogenic effect. To evaluate the interrelationship of angiogenesis and the PAI-1 level in b...... and the Chalkley count are independent prognostic markers for recurrence-free survival in patients with primary breast cancer, suggesting that the prognostic impact of PAI-1 is not only based on its involvement in angiogenesis.......Tumour angiogenesis and the levels of plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) are both informative prognostic markers in breast cancer. In cell cultures and in animal model systems, PAI-1 has a proangiogenic effect. To evaluate the interrelationship of angiogenesis and the PAI-1 level...... in breast cancer, we have evaluated the prognostic value of those factors in a total of 228 patients with primary, unilateral, invasive breast cancer, evaluated at a median follow-up time of 12 years. Microvessels were immunohistochemically stained by antibodies against CD34 and quantitated by the Chalkley...

  10. Physics Based Modeling and Prognostics of Electrolytic Capacitors

    Kulkarni, Chetan; Ceyla, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai


    This paper proposes first principles based modeling and prognostics approach for electrolytic capacitors. Electrolytic capacitors have become critical components in electronics systems in aeronautics and other domains. Degradations and faults in DC-DC converter unit propagates to the GPS and navigation subsystems and affects the overall solution. Capacitors and MOSFETs are the two major components, which cause degradations and failures in DC-DC converters. This type of capacitors are known for its low reliability and frequent breakdown on critical systems like power supplies of avionics equipment and electrical drivers of electromechanical actuators of control surfaces. Some of the more prevalent fault effects, such as a ripple voltage surge at the power supply output can cause glitches in the GPS position and velocity output, and this, in turn, if not corrected will propagate and distort the navigation solution. In this work, we study the effects of accelerated aging due to thermal stress on different sets of capacitors under different conditions. Our focus is on deriving first principles degradation models for thermal stress conditions. Data collected from simultaneous experiments are used to validate the desired models. Our overall goal is to derive accurate models of capacitor degradation, and use them to predict performance changes in DC-DC converters.

  11. Particle filter-based prognostics: Review, discussion and perspectives

    Jouin, Marine; Gouriveau, Rafael; Hissel, Daniel; Péra, Marie-Cécile; Zerhouni, Noureddine


    Particle filters are of great concern in a large variety of engineering fields such as robotics, statistics or automatics. Recently, it has developed among Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) applications for diagnostics and prognostics. According to some authors, it has ever become a state-of-the-art technique for prognostics. Nowadays, around 50 papers dealing with prognostics based on particle filters can be found in the literature. However, no comprehensive review has been proposed on the subject until now. This paper aims at analyzing the way particle filters are used in that context. The development of the tool in the prognostics' field is discussed before entering the details of its practical use and implementation. Current issues are identified, analyzed and some solutions or work trails are proposed. All this aims at highlighting future perspectives as well as helping new users to start with particle filters in the goal of prognostics.




    Full Text Available This paper reviews the literature in diagnostics and prognostics of slow rotating bearings. Diagnostics and prognostics involve data acquisition and processing. The diagnostics and prognostics of rotating machinery is a subject of much on-going research. There are three approaches to diagnostics and prognostics which include data driven techniques, model based techniques and experience based approach. The review looks at current diagnostics and prognostics approaches to bearings in general and slow rotating bearings in particular and future trends. Bayesian techniques are currently gaining widespread application in diagnostics and prognostics of slow rotating bearings and mechanical systems as a result of their ability to handle the stochastic nature of the data well at varying operating conditions.

  13. Conditional Reliability Coefficients for Test Scores.

    Nicewander, W Alan


    The most widely used, general index of measurement precision for psychological and educational test scores is the reliability coefficient-a ratio of true variance for a test score to the true-plus-error variance of the score. In item response theory (IRT) models for test scores, the information function is the central, conditional index of measurement precision. In this inquiry, conditional reliability coefficients for a variety of score types are derived as simple transformations of information functions. It is shown, for example, that the conditional reliability coefficient for an ordinary, number-correct score, X, is equal to, ρ(X,X'|θ)=I(X,θ)/[I(X,θ)+1] Where: θ is a latent variable measured by an observed test score, X; p(X, X'|θ) is the conditional reliability of X at a fixed value of θ; and I(X, θ) is the score information function. This is a surprisingly simple relationship between the 2, basic indices of measurement precision from IRT and classical test theory (CTT). This relationship holds for item scores as well as test scores based on sums of item scores-and it holds for dichotomous as well as polytomous items, or a mix of both item types. Also, conditional reliabilities are derived for computerized adaptive test scores, and for θ-estimates used as alternatives to number correct scores. These conditional reliabilities are all related to information in a manner similar-or-identical to the 1 given above for the number-correct (NC) score. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Rapid-acquisition myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) on a novel gamma camera using multipinhole collimation and miniaturized cadmium-zinc-telluride (CZT) detectors: prognostic value and diagnostic accuracy in a 'real-world' nuclear cardiology service.

    Chowdhury, F U; Vaidyanathan, S; Bould, M; Marsh, J; Trickett, C; Dodds, K; Clark, T P R; Sapsford, R J; Dickinson, C J; Patel, C N; Thorley, P J


    To study the prognostic value of rapid-acquisition adenosine stress-rest myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) on a gamma camera using multipinhole collimation and cadmium-zinc-telluride (CZT) detectors. The secondary aim was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of the technique compared with invasive coronary angiography. Retrospective analysis of 1109 consecutive patients undergoing MPS in a routine clinical setting on a high-efficiency multipinhole gamma camera. MPS acquisition, performed with a standard injection of 550 MBq of (99m)Tc-tetrofosmin, required a mean (±SD) scanning time of 322 ± 51 s. The hard cardiac event rate at a median (inter-quartile range) follow-up of 624 (552-699) days was 0.4% (95% CI 0.1-1.1) in patients with no significant perfusion abnormality versus 6.8% (95% CI 4.3-10.7%, P MPS of 84% (95% CI 74-91), 79% (95% CI 68-87), 82% (95% CI 72-89), 81% (95% CI 70-89), and 82% (95% CI 73-89), respectively. MPS performed on a CZT solid-state detector camera with multipinhole collimation is an evolutionary development that provides reliable prognostic and diagnostic information, while significantly reducing image acquisition time.

  15. Reliability methods in OpenEarthTools

    Den Heijer, C.


    OpenEarthTools contains, apart from a lot of other tools in various programming languages, the probabilistic reliability methods FORM and Monte Carlo. This document aims at describing and providing background information and examples on the FORM and Monte Carlo implementation available in OpenEarthT

  16. Prognostic studies of canine and feline mammary tumours: the need for standardized procedures.

    Matos, A J F; Baptista, C S; Gärtner, M F; Rutteman, G R


    For several years, veterinary oncologists have been struggling with the prognosis of mammary tumours in dogs and cats. Translation of tumour characteristics into prognostic information is an invaluable tool for the use of the most appropriate therapies, as well as for planning innovative therapeutic trials. Moreover, canine and feline spontaneous mammary gland tumours are good models for the study of human breast cancer. Collecting and interpreting information regarding the prognosis of canine and feline mammary tumours is difficult due to the fact that different methods have been applied to study various components and characteristics. This review identifies some of the challenges of prognostic studies of spontaneous canine and feline mammary tumours and suggests standardized procedures to overcome these challenges and facilitate reproducibility and assessment of results.

  17. A Combinatory Approach for Selecting Prognostic Genes in Microarray Studies of Tumour Survivals

    Qihua Tan


    Full Text Available Different from significant gene expression analysis which looks for genes that are differentially regulated, feature selection in the microarray-based prognostic gene expression analysis aims at finding a subset of marker genes that are not only differentially expressed but also informative for prediction. Unfortunately feature selection in literature of microarray study is predominated by the simple heuristic univariate gene filter paradigm that selects differentially expressed genes according to their statistical significances. We introduce a combinatory feature selection strategy that integrates differential gene expression analysis with the Gram-Schmidt process to identify prognostic genes that are both statistically significant and highly informative for predicting tumour survival outcomes. Empirical application to leukemia and ovarian cancer survival data through-within- and cross-study validations shows that the feature space can be largely reduced while achieving improved testing performances.

  18. Prognostic Tools in Patients With Advanced Cancer: A Systematic Review.

    Simmons, Claribel P L; McMillan, Donald C; McWilliams, Kerry; Sande, Tonje A; Fearon, Kenneth C; Tuck, Sharon; Fallon, Marie T; Laird, Barry J


    In 2005, the European Association for Palliative Care made recommendations for prognostic markers in advanced cancer. Since then, prognostic tools have been developed, evolved, and validated. The aim of this systematic review was to examine the progress in the development and validation of prognostic tools. Medline, Embase Classic and Embase were searched. Eligible studies met the following criteria: patients with incurable cancer, >18 years, original studies, population n ≥100, and published after 2003. Descriptive and quantitative statistical analyses were performed. Forty-nine studies were eligible, assessing seven prognostic tools across different care settings, primary cancer types, and statistically assessed survival prediction. The Palliative Performance Scale was the most studied (n = 21,082), comprising six parameters (six subjective), was externally validated, and predicted survival. The Palliative Prognostic Score composed of six parameters (four subjective and two objective), the Palliative Prognostic Index composed of nine parameters (nine subjective), and the Glasgow Prognostic Score composed of two parameters (two objective) and were all externally validated in more than 2000 patients with advanced cancer and predicted survival. Various prognostic tools have been validated but vary in their complexity, subjectivity, and therefore clinical utility. The Glasgow Prognostic Score would seem the most favorable as it uses only two parameters (both objective) and has prognostic value complementary to the gold standard measure, which is performance status. Further studies comparing all proved prognostic markers in a single cohort of patients with advanced cancer are needed to determine the optimal prognostic tool. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Reaching the limits of prognostication in non-small cell lung cancer: an optimized biomarker panel fails to outperform clinical parameters.

    Grinberg, Marianna; Djureinovic, Dijana; Brunnström, Hans Rr; Mattsson, Johanna Sm; Edlund, Karolina; Hengstler, Jan G; La Fleur, Linnea; Ekman, Simon; Koyi, Hirsh; Branden, Eva; Ståhle, Elisabeth; Jirström, Karin; Tracy, Derek K; Pontén, Fredrik; Botling, Johan; Rahnenführer, Jörg; Micke, Patrick


    Numerous protein biomarkers have been analyzed to improve prognostication in non-small cell lung cancer, but have not yet demonstrated sufficient value to be introduced into clinical practice. Here, we aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model for surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer. A biomarker panel was selected based on (1) prognostic association in published literature, (2) prognostic association in gene expression data sets, (3) availability of reliable antibodies, and (4) representation of diverse biological processes. The five selected proteins (MKI67, EZH2, SLC2A1, CADM1, and NKX2-1 alias TTF1) were analyzed by immunohistochemistry on tissue microarrays including tissue from 326 non-small cell lung cancer patients. One score was obtained for each tumor and each protein. The scores were combined, with or without the inclusion of clinical parameters, and the best prognostic model was defined according to the corresponding concordance index (C-index). The best-performing model was subsequently validated in an independent cohort consisting of tissue from 345 non-small cell lung cancer patients. The model based only on protein expression did not perform better compared to clinicopathological parameters, whereas combining protein expression with clinicopathological data resulted in a slightly better prognostic performance (C-index: all non-small cell lung cancer 0.63 vs 0.64; adenocarcinoma: 0.66 vs 0.70, squamous cell carcinoma: 0.57 vs 0.56). However, this modest effect did not translate into a significantly improved accuracy of survival prediction. The combination of a prognostic biomarker panel with clinicopathological parameters did not improve survival prediction in non-small cell lung cancer, questioning the potential of immunohistochemistry-based assessment of protein biomarkers for prognostication in clinical practice.

  20. A Survey of Metrics for Performance Evaluation of Prognostics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Prognostics is an emerging concept in condition basedmaintenance(CBM)ofcriticalsystems.Alongwith developing the fundamentals of being able to confidently predict...

  1. Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research...

  2. An Approach to Prognostic Decision Making in the Aerospace Domain

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The field of Prognostic Health Management (PHM) has been undergoing rapid growth in recent years, with development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for...

  3. Prognostic Value Of Immunoglobulin Profile In Human Papilloma Virus Infection

    Chattopadhyay S P


    Present study aimed at defining the prognostic value of immunoglobulin profile in human papilloma virus infection by assessing and correlating the levels of immunoglobulin with type, number, duration...

  4. Thrombocytosis as a prognostic marker in gastrointestinal cancers

    Voutsadakis, Ioannis A


    Thrombocytosis is an adverse prognostic factor in many types of cancer. These include breast cancer, ovarian and other gynecologic cancers, renal cell carcinoma and lung cancers. In gastrointestinal cancers of various locations and histologic types, thrombocytosis has been reported in general to be associated with adverse clinical outcomes. Platelet count measurement is well standardized and available in every clinical laboratory, making its use as a prognostic marker practical. This paper will discuss the data on the prognostic value of thrombocytosis in gastrointestinal cancers as well as pathogenic aspects of the association that strengthen the case for its use in clinical prognostication. PMID:24567794

  5. Accelerated Aging Experiments for Capacitor Health Monitoring and Prognostics

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This paper discusses experimental setups for health monitoring and prognostics of electrolytic capacitors under nominal operation and accelerated aging conditions....

  6. Distributed Prognostic Health Management with Gaussian Process Regression

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Distributed prognostics architecture design is an enabling step for efficient implementation of health management systems. A major challenge encountered in such...

  7. Prognostic utility of Hyams histological grading and Kadish-Morita staging systems for esthesioneuroblastoma outcomes.

    Bell, Diana; Saade, Rami; Roberts, Dianna; Ow, Thomas J; Kupferman, Michael; DeMonte, Franco; Hanna, Ehab Y


    Esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB) is derived from the specialized olfactory neuroepithelium. Hyams grading and Kadish staging have been used to prognosticate and to guide treatment decisions. In this study, we sought to validate the prognostic utility of these systems in a large ENB cohort. We retrospectively analyzed the records of patients with ENB who had been evaluated and treated at our institution. The association of grade and stage with prognostic outcome was assessed; the Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to generate 5-year OS and DFS curves. Out of 124 cases we identified, 121 were assessed for grading and 109 for staging. Review of the tissue samples revealed that 62 % of tumors were low grade (I/II) and 21 % were high grade (III/IV); 17 % of tumors were metastasis. The OS rate was 75 % at 5 years. The DFS was 60 % at 5 years. The OS was significantly worse for metastatic ENB (low-grade ENB vs metastatic ENB p = 0.01598); the DFS was significantly worse for high grade versus low grade ENB. Of the 109 cases that had been staged, 16 % were stage A, 33 % stage B, 43 % stage C, and 8 % stage D. In the A, B, and C groups, there were no significant differences between recurrence, distant metastasis, or 5-year survival rates. Statistical significance was not reached with the T, N, M and overall staging system. Age cutoff of 65 years reliably predicted OS. High grade of ENB was significantly associated with poor outcome, while advanced stage was not associated with poor outcome in this large cohort. Grading should certainly be considered in prognostication and treatment decisions for ENB.

  8. Detection of the criteria of prognostication of efficency of chronic acquired toxoplasmosis treatment

    Оксана Вячеславовна Боброва


    Full Text Available The great number of treatment schemes of toxoplasmosis predetermines the question for clinician how to choose the most effective therapy regimen. Aim. Detection of the criteria of prognostication of efficiency of the treatment patients with the chronic acquired toxoplasmosis (CAT in an acute phase before and after the complex therapy. Methods. For attaining the set aim we examined 143 patients (92 women and 51 men 18-75 years old with CAT in an acute phase.For evaluation of efficiency of the complex antiparasitic pathogenetic therapy and the character of dynamics of the studying indicators there was carried out the repeat examination of 143 patients in 1-2 and 5-6 month after the end of treatment.Results. An efficiency of considered treatment regimens depends on an initial pathogenetic determinant specific for each of them and its calculation allows prognosticate and individualize the treatment of patients.Conclusions. The immunological parameters, data of clinical blood analysis and biochemical indicators of the liver function and also the clinical-anamnestic indicators have the predictor properties that allows use it for prognosis of efficiency of CAT treatment. An efficiency of the different treatment regimens of toxoplasmosis can be prognosticated on the base of initial values of parameters of homeostasis of patient’s organism.An efficiency of elaborated algorithms of prognosis of efficiency of the different regimens of CAT therapy was 86,7-90% at the reliability ≥95%, that allows recommend it for clinical use.The use of prognostic algorithms allows individualize the treatment of patients with CAT. 

  9. Reliable Signal Transduction

    Wollman, Roy

    Stochasticity inherent to biochemical reactions (intrinsic noise) and variability in cellular states (extrinsic noise) degrade information transmitted through signaling networks. We analyzed the ability of temporal signal modulation - that is dynamics - to reduce noise-induced information loss. In the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK), calcium (Ca(2 +)) , and nuclear factor kappa-B (NF- κB) pathways, response dynamics resulted in significantly greater information transmission capacities compared to nondynamic responses. Theoretical analysis demonstrated that signaling dynamics has a key role in overcoming extrinsic noise. Experimental measurements of information transmission in the ERK network under varying signal-to-noise levels confirmed our predictions and showed that signaling dynamics mitigate, and can potentially eliminate, extrinsic noise-induced information loss. By curbing the information-degrading effects of cell-to-cell variability, dynamic responses substantially increase the accuracy of biochemical signaling networks.

  10. CR reliability testing

    Honeyman-Buck, Janice C.; Rill, Lynn; Frost, Meryll M.; Staab, Edward V.


    The purpose of this work was to develop a method for systematically testing the reliability of a CR system under realistic daily loads in a non-clinical environment prior to its clinical adoption. Once digital imaging replaces film, it will be very difficult to revert back should the digital system become unreliable. Prior to the beginning of the test, a formal evaluation was performed to set the benchmarks for performance and functionality. A formal protocol was established that included all the 62 imaging plates in the inventory for each 24-hour period in the study. Imaging plates were exposed using different combinations of collimation, orientation, and SID. Anthropomorphic phantoms were used to acquire images of different sizes. Each combination was chosen randomly to simulate the differences that could occur in clinical practice. The tests were performed over a wide range of times with batches of plates processed to simulate the temporal constraints required by the nature of portable radiographs taken in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). Current patient demographics were used for the test studies so automatic routing algorithms could be tested. During the test, only three minor reliability problems occurred, two of which were not directly related to the CR unit. One plate was discovered to cause a segmentation error that essentially reduced the image to only black and white with no gray levels. This plate was removed from the inventory to be replaced. Another problem was a PACS routing problem that occurred when the DICOM server with which the CR was communicating had a problem with disk space. The final problem was a network printing failure to the laser cameras. Although the units passed the reliability test, problems with interfacing to workstations were discovered. The two issues that were identified were the interpretation of what constitutes a study for CR and the construction of the look-up table for a proper gray scale display.

  11. Ultimately Reliable Pyrotechnic Systems

    Scott, John H.; Hinkel, Todd


    This paper presents the methods by which NASA has designed, built, tested, and certified pyrotechnic devices for high reliability operation in extreme environments and illustrates the potential applications in the oil and gas industry. NASA's extremely successful application of pyrotechnics is built upon documented procedures and test methods that have been maintained and developed since the Apollo Program. Standards are managed and rigorously enforced for performance margins, redundancy, lot sampling, and personnel safety. The pyrotechnics utilized in spacecraft include such devices as small initiators and detonators with the power of a shotgun shell, detonating cord systems for explosive energy transfer across many feet, precision linear shaped charges for breaking structural membranes, and booster charges to actuate valves and pistons. NASA's pyrotechnics program is one of the more successful in the history of Human Spaceflight. No pyrotechnic device developed in accordance with NASA's Human Spaceflight standards has ever failed in flight use. NASA's pyrotechnic initiators work reliably in temperatures as low as -420 F. Each of the 135 Space Shuttle flights fired 102 of these initiators, some setting off multiple pyrotechnic devices, with never a failure. The recent landing on Mars of the Opportunity rover fired 174 of NASA's pyrotechnic initiators to complete the famous '7 minutes of terror.' Even after traveling through extreme radiation and thermal environments on the way to Mars, every one of them worked. These initiators have fired on the surface of Titan. NASA's design controls, procedures, and processes produce the most reliable pyrotechnics in the world. Application of pyrotechnics designed and procured in this manner could enable the energy industry's emergency equipment, such as shutoff valves and deep-sea blowout preventers, to be left in place for years in extreme environments and still be relied upon to function when needed, thus greatly enhancing

  12. Reliability of automotive and mechanical engineering. Determination of component and system reliability

    Bertsche, Bernd [Stuttgart Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Maschinenelemente


    In the present contemporary climate of global competition in every branch of engineering and manufacture it has been shown from extensive customer surveys that above every other attribute, reliability stands as the most desired feature in a finished product. To survive this relentless fight for survival any organisation, which neglect the plea of attaining to excellence in reliability, will do so at a serious cost Reliability in Automotive and Mechanical Engineering draws together a wide spectrum of diverse and relevant applications and analyses on reliability engineering. This is distilled into this attractive and well documented volume and practising engineers are challenged with the formidable task of simultaneously improving reliability and reducing the costs and down-time due to maintenance. The volume brings together eleven chapters to highlight the importance of the interrelated reliability and maintenance disciplines. They represent the development trends and progress resulting in making this book essential basic material for all research academics, planners maintenance executives, who have the responsibility to implement the findings and maintenance audits into a cohesive reliability policy. Although, the book is centred on automotive engineering nevertheless, the examples and overall treatise can be applied to a wide range of professional practices. The book will be a valuable source of information for those concerned with improved manufacturing performance and the formidable task of optimising reliability. (orig.)

  13. Effect of Maintenance on Computer Network Reliability

    Rima Oudjedi Damerdji


    Full Text Available At the time of the new information technologies, computer networks are inescapable in any large organization, where they are organized so as to form powerful internal means of communication. In a context of dependability, the reliability parameter proves to be fundamental to evaluate the performances of such systems. In this paper, we study the reliability evaluation of a real computer network, through three reliability models. The computer network considered (set of PCs and server interconnected is localized in a company established in the west of Algeria and dedicated to the production of ammonia and fertilizers. The result permits to compare between the three models to determine the most appropriate reliability model to the studied network, and thus, contribute to improving the quality of the network. In order to anticipate system failures as well as improve the reliability and availability of the latter, we must put in place a policy of adequate and effective maintenance based on a new model of the most common competing risks in maintenance, Alert-Delay model. At the end, dependability measures such as MTBF and reliability are calculated to assess the effectiveness of maintenance strategies and thus, validate the alert delay model.

  14. Ferrite logic reliability study

    Baer, J. A.; Clark, C. B.


    Development and use of digital circuits called all-magnetic logic are reported. In these circuits the magnetic elements and their windings comprise the active circuit devices in the logic portion of a system. The ferrite logic device belongs to the all-magnetic class of logic circuits. The FLO device is novel in that it makes use of a dual or bimaterial ferrite composition in one physical ceramic body. This bimaterial feature, coupled with its potential for relatively high speed operation, makes it attractive for high reliability applications. (Maximum speed of operation approximately 50 kHz.)

  15. Blade reliability collaborative :

    Ashwill, Thomas D.; Ogilvie, Alistair B.; Paquette, Joshua A.


    The Blade Reliability Collaborative (BRC) was started by the Wind Energy Technologies Department of Sandia National Laboratories and DOE in 2010 with the goal of gaining insight into planned and unplanned O&M issues associated with wind turbine blades. A significant part of BRC is the Blade Defect, Damage and Repair Survey task, which will gather data from blade manufacturers, service companies, operators and prior studies to determine details about the largest sources of blade unreliability. This report summarizes the initial findings from this work.

  16. Dynamic reliability of digital-based transmitters

    Brissaud, Florent, E-mail: florent.brissaud.2007@utt.f [Institut National de l' Environnement Industriel et des Risques (INERIS), Parc Technologique Alata, BP 2, 60550 Verneuil-en-Halatte (France) and Universite de Technologie de Troyes - UTT, Institut Charles Delaunay - ICD and UMR CNRS 6279 STMR, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France); Smidts, Carol [Ohio State University (OSU), Nuclear Engineering Program, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Scott Laboratory, 201 W 19th Ave, Columbus OH 43210 (United States); Barros, Anne; Berenguer, Christophe [Universite de Technologie de Troyes (UTT), Institut Charles Delaunay (ICD) and UMR CNRS 6279 STMR, 12 rue Marie Curie, BP 2060, 10010 Troyes Cedex (France)


    Dynamic reliability explicitly handles the interactions between the stochastic behaviour of system components and the deterministic behaviour of process variables. While dynamic reliability provides a more efficient and realistic way to perform probabilistic risk assessment than 'static' approaches, its industrial level applications are still limited. Factors contributing to this situation are the inherent complexity of the theory and the lack of a generic platform. More recently the increased use of digital-based systems has also introduced additional modelling challenges related to specific interactions between system components. Typical examples are the 'intelligent transmitters' which are able to exchange information, and to perform internal data processing and advanced functionalities. To make a contribution to solving these challenges, the mathematical framework of dynamic reliability is extended to handle the data and information which are processed and exchanged between systems components. Stochastic deviations that may affect system properties are also introduced to enhance the modelling of failures. A formalized Petri net approach is then presented to perform the corresponding reliability analyses using numerical methods. Following this formalism, a versatile model for the dynamic reliability modelling of digital-based transmitters is proposed. Finally the framework's flexibility and effectiveness is demonstrated on a substantial case study involving a simplified model of a nuclear fast reactor.

  17. Repeated measurements of blood lactate concentration as a prognostic marker in horses with acute colitis evaluated with classification and regression trees (CART) and random forest analysis.

    Petersen, M B; Tolver, A; Husted, L; Tølbøll, T H; Pihl, T H


    The objective of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of single and repeated measurements of blood l-lactate (Lac) and ionised calcium (iCa) concentrations, packed cell volume (PCV) and plasma total protein (TP) concentration in horses with acute colitis. A total of 66 adult horses admitted with acute colitis (2 mmol/L (sensitivity, 0.72; specificity, 0.8). In conclusion, blood lactate concentration measured at admission and repeated 6 h later aided the prognostic evaluation of horses with acute colitis in this population with a very high mortality rate. This should allow clinicians to give a more reliable prognosis for the horse.

  18. Emphysematous pyelonephritis: clinical characteristics and prognostic factors.

    Lu, Yu-Chuan; Chiang, Bing-Juin; Pong, Yuan-Hung; Chen, Chung-Hsin; Pu, Yeong-Shiau; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Huang, Chao-Yuan


    Emphysematous pyelonephritis is a severe necrotizing infection of the renal parenchyma and perirenal tissues that is caused by gas-producing bacterial pathogens. The aim of the present study was to determine the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of patients with emphysematous pyelonephritis. We retrospectively analyzed the clinical and laboratory data, imaging findings, and outcomes of 32 patients with emphysematous pyelonephritis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was carried out on variables that were significantly associated with patient mortality. The overall survival rate was 87.5% (28/32). Escherichia coli (43.6%) was the most common organism cultured from urine and blood specimens. Hypoalbuminemia, shock as the presenting feature, bacteremia, need for hemodialysis and polymicrobial infection were significantly more common in cases resulting in death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.96. The cut-off point determined by the maximum Youden index (0.93) for three of these five factors yielded a sensitivity of 1.00 and specificity of 0.93. Shock as an initial presentation (P = 0.039) and polymicrobial infection (P = 0.010) were significantly associated with poor outcome. There were no significant differences in the clinical or laboratory features of the patients who did or did not undergo nephrectomy. Hypoalbuminemia, shock as an initial presentation, bacteremia, indications for hemodialysis and polymicrobial infection represent prognostic factors for mortality in patients with emphysematous pyelonephritis. Patients presenting with more than two of these prognostic factors carry the highest risk of mortality, and they require timely diagnosis and aggressive management. © 2013 The Japanese Urological Association.

  19. Proliferation in Non-Hodgkin’S Lymphomas and Its Prognostic Value Related to Staging Parameters

    Irene Lorand‐Metze


    Full Text Available In malignant lymphomas, cell kinetics has shown to be related with histologic type as well as with the clinical behaviour. The aim of our study was to investigate the relevance of cell proliferation parameters on overall survival in non‐Hodgkin's lymphomas as well as their relationship with prognostic factors such as International Prognostic Index (IPI. We performed DNA‐flow‐cytometry (S‐phase fraction and detection of DNA‐aneuploidy as well as cytologic examination and the AgNOR technique in material obtained by fine needle aspiration of lymph nodes at diagnosis. The majority of the patients were stage IV by Ann Arbor and intermediate risk by IPI (42/55. When analyzing all patients together, histologic type by the WHO classification, IPI and the presence of a DNA‐aneuploid clone could not separate well patients with a different survival. For all patients, univariate Cox analysis revealed S‐phase (SPF and AgNOR parameters to be of prognostic value. In the multivariate analysis, however, only SPF remained in the final model. Yet, when stratifying for DNA‐ploidy, only the total number of AgNORs/nucleus was an independent parameter. Looking only at the DNA‐diploid cases, the AgNOR pattern remained the most important parameter, whereas for the DNA‐aneuploid cases this was true for SPF. When studying patients with B large cell lymphoma separately, only DNA‐ploidy was a prognostic factor. In summary, cell kinetic parameters reveal important prognostic information in NHL patients. Furthermore, DNA‐aneuploidy seems to interfere with the analysis of the AgNOR pattern.

  20. Do pathological variables have prognostic significance in rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery?

    Reggiani Bonetti, Luca; Lionti, Simona; Domati, Federica; Barresi, Valeria


    AIM To clarify which factors may influence pathological tumor response and affect clinical outcomes in patients with locally advanced rectal carcinoma treated with neo-adjuvant chemoradiotherapy and surgery. METHODS Tumor regression grade (TRG) according to the Dworak system and yTNM stage were assessed and correlated with pre-treatment clinico-pathological variables in 215 clinically locally advanced (cTNM stage II and III) rectal carcinomas. Prognostic value of all pathological and clinical factors on disease free survival (DFS) and cancer specific survival (CSS) was analyzed by Kaplan Meier and Cox-regression analyses. RESULTS cN+ status, mucinous histotype or poor differentiation in the pre-treatment biopsy were significantly associated with lower pathological response (low Dworak grade and TNM remaining unchanged/upstaging). Cases showing acellular mucin pools in surgical specimens all had unremarkable clinical courses with no deaths or recurrences during follow-up. Dworak grade had prognostic significance for DFS and CSS. However, compared to the 5-tiered system, a simplified two-tiered grading system, in which grades 0, 1 and 2 were grouped as absent/partial regression and grades 3 and 4 were grouped as total/subtotal regression, was more reproducible and prognostically informative. The two-tiered Dworak system, yN stage, craniocaudal extension of the tumor and radial margin status were significant independent prognostic variables. CONCLUSION Our data suggest that caution should be applied in using a conservative approach in rectal carcinomas with cN+ status, extensive/lower involvement of the rectum and mucinous histotype or poor differentiation. Although Dworak TRG is prognostically significant, a simplified two-tiered system could be preferable. Finally, cases with acellular mucin pools should be carefully evaluated to definitely exclude residual mucinous carcinoma. PMID:28293088